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Football Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
10-21-17	Maryland v. Wisconsin OVER 50		13-38	Win	100	29 h 8 m	Show
Wisconsin was sloppy against Purdue last week. The Badgers won't be against a worn down Maryland defense that has surrendered a combined 99 points to Northwestern and Ohio State during the last two weeks. This is the Terps' third road game in four weeks. The Terps rank 115th in scoring defense. They've allowed 37 or more points in four of their six games. Maryland is going to fall prey to Jonathan Taylor, the latest in a long line of outstanding Wisconsin running backs. Taylor is averaging 7.7 yards per carry and has 986 yards rushing on the season. The Badgers are healthy now at guard. Maryland is a heavy underdog here. But the Terps can come up with their share of points. They are down to third-string quarterback Max Bortenschiager. He has weapons, though, with DJ Moore, who leads the Big Ten in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. Moore and Ty Johnson are the only teammates in the country to be ranked in the top 25 in all-purpose yards per game.
10-15-17	Chargers v. Raiders UNDER 49.5		17-16	Win	100	11 h 29 m	Show
The total is set high here because Derek Carr is back behind center after suffering a fracture in his back that caused him to miss last week. That type of injury normally keeps a player out 2-to-6 weeks. Carr still has pain in his back. The Chargers have a strong pass rush thanks to Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, who have combined for 12 sacks. That's the most in the league among two teammates. So the Raiders have to be extremely careful with their franchise quarterback. That likely means more running plays and short, quick passes where Carr isn't so much at risk. This will keep the clock moving. Oakland's offense hasn't been in gear. The Raiders have put up only 37 points in their last three games. Amari Cooper and Marshawn Lynch are having terrible seasons so far. The Chargers' success rides on Philip Rivers and he isn't having a good season either. Rivers is completing less than 60 percent of his throws, has five interceptions and ranks just 21st in passer ratings. LA is likely to run more than usual, too, because the Raiders have a trio of undersized linebackers and middle linebacker, Marquel Lee, is out. Another reason not to expect a Rivers-Carr shootout is the Enviornmental Protection Agency has said the air quality is unhealthy for this game, which is being played at the Oakland Coliseum. This is due to the lingering North Bay fires. I look at this circumstance as a plus for the Under because the teams could run the ball more during the final quarter trying to gain the upper hand by controlling the trenches.
10-15-17	49ers v. Redskins OVER 46.5		24-26	Win	100	83 h 41 m	Show
Both team's offenses are heating up. After five games, the 49ers are showing signs of picking up Kyle Shanahan's intrigue schemes and designs. Brian Hoyer is coming off his best game as a 49er throwing for two touchdown passes and 353 yards while compiling a 101.1 passer rating against the Colts on the road last week. The Redskins will be without their elite cornerback, injured Josh Norman. Shanahan and Pierre Garcon, who is having a good year for the 49ers, know the Redskins well. Shanahan was Washington's offensive coordinator from 2010-2013 while Garcon played the previous five seasons for the Redskins. They will know the soft spots in the Redskins' coverage. Kirk Cousins is back on track for Washington. He's 39-for-54 for 585 yards with a five-to-zero touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last two games. The Redskins will be fresh having had their bye last week. The time off has allowed star tight end Jordan Reed to be healthy for the first time this season. The 49ers defense gives up the fifth-most yards per game and is second-to-last in opponent's third-down percentage. San Francisco's defense could get tired early, too. This marks San Francisco's third consecutive road game. It's an early start time, too, for the 49ers. The 49ers defense has had to endure overtime games the past two weeks. They've been on the field 37:17 and 36:15 during the past two games.
10-15-17	Bears v. Ravens -5		27-24	Loss	-105	1 h 17 m	Show
Tough spot for the Bears traveling on a short week. Baltimore plays much better at home. The Ravens are 11-0 versus foes starting a rookie QB against them, which is the case here with the Bears and Mitch Trubisky. Ravens defense is far more intimidating at home. Joe Flacco is having a terrible year, but he's getting better each week as more rust comes off. He can put up enough points against a weak Bears secondary.
10-15-17	Patriots -9.5 v. Jets	Top	24-17	Loss	-110	129 h 8 m	Show
There's actually a bit of line value in taking the Patriots with the Jets riding an improbable three-game win streak. Credit to the Jets for beating the Dolphins and Jaguars. They were fortunate, though, to defeat the winless Browns. The Jets are putting forth an effort. They will give their best shot here in this division rivalry. However, they are no match for the Patriots. The talent gap between these two offenses is the size of the Grand Canyon. Tom Brady remains a top-three quarterback. He's leading the NFL in passing yards and has the second-highest quarterback rating. The Patriots have outstanding wide receivers and excellent running back versatility and depth. Rob Gronkowski should be able to play this week, too. The Jets have a popgun offense made worse in that their best runner, Bilal Powell, isn't expected to play. The Patriots are on extra rest since they played last Thursday. The Patriots' defense finally showed some improvement against a dangerous Tampa Bay offense. Belichick should be able to make further fixes with the added preparation time. The Patriots' disappointing cornerbacks shouldn't have any problems handling the Jets' non-descript wide receivers. This is a kill spot for the Patriots. They're not going to let up against this hated foe either.
10-14-17	Boise State v. San Diego State OVER 46		31-14	Loss	-110	32 h 25 m	Show
This isn't too high of a total for these two teams to go Over considering their respective skill position talent. Boise State has a balanced attack, while San Diego State boasts one of the best running backs in the country, Rashaad Penny. He's rushed for triple digits in his last six games. The Aztecs also have been getting solid production from quarterback Christian Chapman. The over has cashed 14 of the last 20 times Boise State has played on the road.
10-14-17	Nevada v. Colorado State OVER 64		42-44	Win	100	79 h 49 m	Show
Nevada finally got its offense going last week beating Hawaii, 35-21. The Wolf Pack could do some damage against an average Colorado State pass defense that has allowed opponents to complete 61 percent of their throws. The Rams also are vulnerable on special teams having given up two return touchdowns. But what's going to put this game Over the total is Colorado State's offense. The Rams average 506.2 yards a game, which is best in the Mountain West and 14th in the nation. The Rams average more than 33 points a game. Quarterback Nick Stevens has thrown for 1,871 yards, sixth-best in the country. He has a tremendous receiver in Michael Gallup. Nevada isn't going to be able to stop this combination. I expect Nevada to fall behind early and thus play at a fast tempo, which is their style. Given Colorado State's outstanding offense and a fast tempo, look for this game to go Over.
10-14-17	New Mexico +2 v. Fresno State	Top	0-38	Loss	-110	34 h 44 m	Show
Fresno State went 1-11 last season and 3-9 two years ago. But now there actually is bowl talk surrounding the Bulldogs. Why is this? Because Fresno State is 2-0 in the Mountain West Conference. The Bulldogs are improved from last season. But let's not jump ahead of ourselves with this team. Fresno State's two conference victories have been against Nevada and San Jose State, one of the worst teams in the country. Nevada is way down, too, this season. Fresno State shouldn't be favored against New Mexico. The Lobos had a bye last week. They rolled past Air Force, 56-38, two weeks ago in their last game. The Lobos put up 509 yards on just 50 offensive snaps against Air Force. I don't see Fresno State being able to handle New Mexico's unique option schemes. Look for the Bulldogs to get exposed here.
10-14-17	Michigan State v. Minnesota +4.5		30-27	Win	100	32 h 35 m	Show
This spot sets up great for Minnesota. The Gophers opened the season going 3-0 in P.J. Fleck's first year with the school. But Minnesota has lost its first two Big Ten games laying an egg against Maryland and then blowing a fourth quarter lead against Purdue on the road last week. So this is a huge stop-the-pain game for Fleck and the Gophers. They catch Michigan State on the road a second straight week and off a victory against arch-rival Michigan last Saturday. Michigan State was a two-touchdown 'dog in that game. Can you say letdown for the Spartans? I can. It's the first time the Spartans are playing outside of Michigan. Minnesota should draw a huge crowd as this is a night game. The Spartans were a road favorite three times last season. They not only failed to cover each of those games, but lost straight-up. The Gophers hold a key edge on the Spartans in passing and pass defense. Minnesota is averaging nearly three yards more per completion than Michigan State and its defense is giving up 2.3 fewer yards on pass completions.
10-14-17	Ohio State v. Nebraska UNDER 58.5		56-14	Loss	-110	30 h 43 m	Show
Ohio State has a top-10 defense surrendering fewer than 16 points a game. I don't see Tanner Lee and the Nebraska offense doing much against the Buckeyes. Nebraska's defense had been playing better before getting blown out by Wisconsin last week. Prior to that game, the Cornhuskers had held held Northern Illinois, Rutgers and Illinois to a combined 44 points. Another big key here is there is a strong wind factor with gusts around 20 mph. This could mean a lot of extra running.
10-14-17	New Mexico State v. Georgia Southern OVER 57.5		35-27	Win	100	28 h 57 m	Show
Georgia Southern has allowed 95 points in its last two games against Indiana and Arkansas State. New Mexico State ranks in the top 30 in yardage and has the offense and quarterback in Tyler Rogers to put up a lot of points against such a weak defense. The Aggies have trouble stopping the run, though, ranking 99th in run defense. Georgia Southern can run the ball with its triple option offense.
10-14-17	Baylor v. Oklahoma State UNDER 68.5		16-59	Loss	-110	13 h 50 m	Show
Baylor is way down this season ranking 103rd in rushing. The combination of this and a large total and extreme weather conditions put me on the Under. There is expected to be heavy winds about to 30 mph. This obviously is going to affect the passing game of both teams forcing more running plays.
10-14-17	Kansas +22.5 v. Iowa State		0-45	Loss	-110	57 h 11 m	Show
Kansas has lost 42 straight road games. I'm not asking the Jayhawks to win here. They just don't have to lose by more than three touchdowns. Kansas actually has covered five of its last six Big 12 Conference games. But I'm banking more on a huge letdown from Iowa State. That certainly would be understandable after the Cyclones stunned then third-raked Oklahoma, 38-31, on the road last Saturday. That was one of the biggest wins in Iowa State history. The Cyclones aren't good enough to celebrate all week and then beat Kansas by more than three touchdowns. Iowa State only beat Kansas, 31-24, on the road last season. Before upsetting Oklahoma, the Cyclones had lost two of three, both at home.
10-14-17	Rutgers v. Illinois -135		35-24	Loss	-135	101 h 21 m	Show
It's not too much to ask Illinois to beat the worst team in the Big Ten, Rutgers, at home. The Scarlet Knights haven't won a road game, after all, since November of 2015. The Illini hold a talent edge on the Scarlet Knights. Illinois has been derailed by quarterback turnovers. I don't see that being as much of an issue against this caliber of opponent especially at home. Rutgers has scored a combined 44 points in its last four games - all losses - against Purdue, Eastern Michigan, Nebraska and Ohio State.
10-12-17	Eagles v. Panthers -3	Top	28-23	Loss	-115	65 h 53 m	Show
OK, I'm sold now that Cam Newton is the MVP Cam Newton of two years ago. He's thrown for 651 yards and accounted for seven touchdowns during the last two weeks. Carolina is averaging 30 points during this span. The Eagles' secondary is well below average and their pass rush is down without injured Fletcher Cox. He's missed the last two games and isn't likely to return to the lineup on a short week. Carolina has held five of its last seven opponents to 20 points or less at home. The Eagles are short on running backs with Wendall Smallwood injured and Darren Sproles out for the season. The Eagles also will be without right tackle Lane Johnson, one of the best offensive tackles in the NFL. He suffered a concussion this past Sunday. Philadelphia has failed to cover in seven of its last 10 away contests. It's a big disadvantage for the road team playing on Thursday because of the short week. In the Eagles' case, this is made worse by facing a non-division foe.
10-08-17	Chiefs v. Texans UNDER 45		42-34	Loss	-110	41 h 56 m	Show
Lost in the glare of the recent brilliance of rookies Kareem Hunt and Deshaun Watson is that these are two conservative teams that operate at a slow pace, run the ball a lot and have good defenses. The Texans just could have the best defense in the NFL with J.J. Watt back healthy. This is a sell low on a total that is higher than it should be based in part on the Texans putting up 57 points on the Titans last week and Hunt's fast start. Watson is going to be up-and-down. Justin Houston is getting back to his dominant pass rushing skills of two years when he had 22 sacks. Marcus Peters is a shutdown cornerback. I find Bill O'Brien to be one of the most conservative coaches in the league with a play not-to-lose attitude. On the flip side, I see Alex Smith reverting back to his old check-down, game-manager way of playing especially going against this caliber of defense on the road. Hunt took advantage of a Patriots defense that was far worse than anyone could imagine to put up awesome statistics. He'll find things much rougher here.
10-08-17	Packers v. Cowboys -135	Top	35-31	Loss	-135	151 h 21 m	Show
The Packers could get away with their massive amount of injuries and patchwork offensive line against the lightweight Bears at home last week. But Green Bay is in big trouble against this caliber of foe on the road. The balanced Cowboys can attack Green Bay's youthful secondary and mediocre linebackers through the air with Dez Bryant, who burned the Packers with nine catches, 132 yards and two touchdowns in the playoffs last season, and on the ground with Ezekiel Elliott and highly mobile QB Dak Prescott. The Packers surredered 141 yards on the ground and 5.2 yards per carry in their lone road game this season, which was at Atlanta. This is a huge revenge game for the Cowboys, who fell to the Packers on a 51-yard field goal at the gun in the postseason, 34-31. Dallas is going to get its points again. The Packers aren't going to be able to keep up with their first five offensive tackles all injured. The Packers got past the Bears using four guards and a center. Lane Taylor, an average guard, played left tackle last week. Justin McCray, a converted guard, played right tackle. Unheralded Lucas Patrick made his NFL debut at left guard. Demarcus Lawrence has become a passing rushing terror for the Cowboys leading the league in sacks. The Packers also could be without their No. 1 running back, Ty Montgomery, and starting wide receiver Davonte Adams. This puts way to much of a load on Aaron Rodgers, who averages less than two touchdow throws per game on the road compared to averaging nearly three touchdown passes when playing at Lambeau Field.
10-08-17	Jets v. Browns +1		17-14	Loss	-114	80 h 49 m	Show
I never thought I would be writing these words this season, but the Jets are going for their third win in a row. Don't expect them to get it. The Jets have defeated the Dolphins and Jaguars in overtime last week. Both wins were achieved at home. They have their bigget game of the season going next week when they host the Patriots. This marks the Jets' lone road game during a four-week span. The Browns' roster is better than one AFC team - the Jets. Cleveland's defense will be bolstered by the return of lineman Myles Garrett, the No. 1 overall draft pick. It's an added bonus if nose guard Danny Shelton and linebacker Jamie Colllins also are able to play. The winless Browns have a much stronger sense of urgency than the Jets for this one and they are home. It's not too much to ask Cleveland to simply win this game against a team where they hold a talent edge on in the offensive line and defensively. The Jets are one of the few teams that also doesn't hold an edge against the Browns skill position-wise.
10-08-17	Jaguars v. Steelers -8		30-9	Loss	-110	80 h 48 m	Show
The Steelers play much better at home particularly Ben Roethlisberger, whose passer rating is 24 points higher at Heniz Field since 2014. During the past four years, Roethlisberger has a 62-20 touchdown-to-interception ratio at home compared to only 24-to-23 on the road. Le'Veon Bell is coming off his best game after a slow start rushing for 144 yards and two touchdowns against the Ravens. Bell should be in line for another big game versus a Jacksonville defense that ranks last in run defense allowing 165.5 yards on the ground per game. Bell's running should set up Roethlisberger's play-action. The Jaguars seem better coached just because they've figured out their best way to win is run the ball and let Blake Bortles be a game manager rather than a gunslinger. The Jaguars' defense has gotten better. But it's not strong enough to carry a weak offense. The Steelers are intimidating and play with a swagger defensively at home. Their offense can put up points fast taking the ball out of Leonard Fournette's hands and forcing Bortles to beat them. That won't happen in Pittsburgh. Bortles has been the most turnover-prone quarterback in the league with a knack for throwing pick-sixes. The Jaguars had to lose a lot of confidence by being outplayed and losing to the lowly Jets last week. This is a kill spot for the Steelers. They've buried much stronger teams that the Jaguars at home.
10-08-17	Bills v. Bengals -150		16-20	Win	100	33 h 17 m	Show
The Bills have overachieved and are in a flat spot following a stunning upset road win against the Falcons last Sunday. This marks Buffalo's third road game in four weeks. The Bengals need this win bad to go to 2-2. They've been much better the past two weeks since a change in offensive coordinators nearly upsetting Green Bay on the road last week falling in overtime. Joe Mixon is a highly talented rookie running back. He's due for a breakout performance. It could come here at home. The Bengals are idle next week so a full effort should be forthcoming. There's also a revenge angle. The Bills nipped the Bengals, 16-12, at Cincinnati last season. Mike Nugent missed a pair of extra points for the Bengals and they lost the indespensible A.J. Green early in that contest.
10-07-17	Alabama -25.5 v. Texas A&M		27-19	Loss	-110	28 h 2 m	Show
Alabama has outscored SEC foes, 125-3, this season. The Crimson Tide should win this game by at least four touchdowns. Texas A&M has an inexperienced secondary that ranks near the bottom giving up nearly 300 passing yards a game. Alabama should have no problem rolling up 500 yards with its balanced attack. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Texas A&M failed to score a touchdown against the Crimson Tide. The Aggies are starting a true freshman quarterback, Kellen Mond. Alabama gives up the fewest points in the country and ranks second in run defense. Mond doesn't have a good offensive line nor receivers to rely on.
10-07-17	Kansas State v. Texas UNDER 49.5	Top	34-40	Loss	-116	41 h 15 m	Show
A makeshift offensive line and resurgent defense have made Texas a strong under team. The under has cashed in the Longhorns' last three games. Texas is giving up only 11.3 points and less than 300 yards during its last three games, the last two having been against Iowa State and USC. The Longhorns, though, are struggling offensively because they are without their two starting tackles, one of which is All-American Connor Williams. The Longhorns also are without Andrew Beck, their best blocking tight end. Texas quarterback Shane Buechele is back in action, but he's less than 100 percent due to a sprained ankle. Kansas State ranks 15th in fewest points allowed at 15 per game. The Wildcats also are 21st in total defense. The last four meetings in this series have gone under, including the one last year in which Kansas State won, 24-21.
10-07-17	Army v. Rice OVER 47		49-12	Win	100	49 h 28 m	Show
Army ranks No. 3 in the country in rushing, but this is that rare game where the Black Knights can also move the ball by passing. Yes, Rice's defense is that bad. The Owls are giving up nearly 34 points a game and more than 300 yards per contest. Rice should look better on offense as Army is not a good road team. The Black Knights are 85th in run defense.
10-07-17	Air Force v. Navy UNDER 51.5		45-48	Loss	-110	119 h 56 m	Show
These teams met last year and Air Force won, 28-14. Navy won, 33-11, two years ago. The under has cashed the past five times these teams have met. A big factor why these two teams haven't been able to break a combined 45 points is they both run the same triple option offense. So each is totally familiar with that type of attack. Lots of running plays also keeps the clocking moving. Air Force ranks 88th in yards gained, but is 31st in yards allowed. Navy has seven defensive starters back from last year and decent depth. Only 36 teams have given up fewer yards per game than the Midshipmen.
10-07-17	Kent State v. Northern Illinois UNDER 46		3-24	Win	100	24 h 8 m	Show
A terrible offense, a star punter and projected bad weather sets up this under. Kent State is averaging 11.4 points a game. The Golden Flashes are going with two quarterbacks, George Bollas and freshman Dustin Crum against Northern Illinois. Don't expect much as Northern Illinois ranks No. 5 defensively in yards per play. Kent State's best player is punter, Derek Adams. He ranks eighth in punting average at 45.8. Kent State also has horrendous defensive numbers. But those statistics have been skewed by having to play Clemson and Louisville. The Golden Flashes are better defensively than they are on offense and they'll be aided by what could be terrible weather conditions as heavy winds are projected. That could lead to more running for Northern Illinois, which has a bigger game on tap next week on the road against Buffalo.
10-07-17	Pittsburgh v. Syracuse OVER 64		24-27	Loss	-110	115 h 25 m	Show
It was insane when these two teams met last year. There were 137 combined points and 1,312 yards of offense. Pittsburgh's defense is terrible again this season. The Panthers are giving up 31.6 points a game and 441.2 yards. Syracuse has surrendered 35 points to LSU and 33 to North Carolina State in its last two games.
10-07-17	Pittsburgh v. Syracuse -150		24-27	Win	100	21 h 7 m	Show
Pittsburgh isn't very good and a victory against Rice last week doesn't change that. The Panthers rank among the bottom 30 teams in defense and their offense averaged 17.3 points against Penn State, Oklahoma State and Georgia Tech. Syracuse has the weapons to take advantage with quarterback Eric Dungey and wide receiver Ervin Phillips, who is coming off a school-record 17-reception, 188-yard receiving game against North Carolina State. The Orange are constantly underrated by the oddsmaker. They have covered their last three games beating the spread by a combined 38 points.
10-01-17	Giants +3 v. Bucs		23-25	Win	100	98 h 48 m	Show
The Giants are in must-win mode at 0-3. They should have beaten the Eagles last week. The Giants allowed the second-fewest points in the NFL last season and their defense remains top-rate. Offense has been a major problem for the Giants. But things should click better now that Odell Beckham Jr. is healthy. The timing is good here for the Giants because the Buccaneers have a cluster injury problem on defense with their top defenders injured. Likely out for sure are linebackers Lavonte David and Kwon Alexander. The Buccaneers also could be missing their two best defensive linemen, Gerald McCoy and Chris Baker, along with cornerbacks Brent Grimes and Vernon Hargreaves. Promising pass rusher Noah Spence also is hurt with a separated shoulder. Eli Manning has never lost to Tampa Bay going 5-0. The Buccaneers have failed to cover eight of the last nine times when laying more than two points. The Giants won 11 games last season on their way to making the playoffs. The Buccaneers last made the postseason in 2007. The timing is ripe here for the Giants to get back on track against an inconsistent Bucs offense and extremely banged-up defense.
10-01-17	Eagles v. Chargers		26-24	Loss	-115	97 h 25 m	Show
At 0-3 this is the Chargers' season. They catch the Eagles off a big division win against the Giants in which the Eagles were outgained by nearly two yards per play. The Chargers easily could be 2-1 instead of 0-3 if not for kicking mistakes by rookie Younghoe Koo. Philip Rivers is a high level QB. He's coming off one of the worst games of his career with a 37.2 passer rating and three interceptions against the Chiefs. I believe Rivers will bounce back strong here against an Eagles defense that is vulnerable in the secondary due to injuries and probably will be without its best defensive lineman, injured Fletcher Cox. The Chargers have a huge receiving edge with Keenan Allen and Travis Benjamin operating against Rasul Douglas and Jalen Mills. The Eagles lost their most versatile threat and a top punt returner when Darren Sproles was injured against the Giants and lost for the season. Philly struggles to run the ball. Sproles was their best player in space. Carson Wentz has been sacked 11 times. Sparked by Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, two of the top pass rushers in the league, the Chargers have recorded 11 sacks.
10-01-17	49ers +7 v. Cardinals		15-18	Win	100	23 h 6 m	Show
The Cardinals have allowed Carson Palmer to be sacked 11 times, the fourth-highest total in the NFL. Palmer could have more trouble now that the left side of his offensive line has been ruled out as neither left tackle Mike Iupati nor left guard Alex Boone will play. Boone is out with a pectoral injury while Iupati was put on IR. Palmer is past his prime and doesn't have his security blanket, David Johnson. The absence of Johnson greatly weakens not only the Cardinals' ground attack, but also its passing. Johnson is the best pass catching starting running back in football. Arizona's receiving corps is banged-up, too, as neither John Brown nor JJ. Nelson are 100 percent. The 49ers got their offense going against the Rams scoring 39 points while finally showing a grasp of Kyle Shanahan's new offense. The 49ers' defense is improved from last year and better than it showed against the Rams, who are the most improved offensive team in the league. The 49ers have had extra rest and practice time having last played a week ago Thursday. The Cardinals, on the other hand, are on a short week having played this past Monday night. The Cardinals haven't been very good at home either failing to cover 12 of their last 18 home games.
10-01-17	49ers v. Cardinals UNDER 44.5		15-18	Win	100	23 h 5 m	Show
The Cardinals' offense is missing superstar running back David Johnson and the left side of their offensive line with Alex Boone and Mike Iupati out. Carson Palmer is past his prime and his receivers are banged-up. The 49ers' defense is improved from last year and better than it showed last week against the Rams. San Francisco's offense is a work in progress. The 49ers have scored fewer than 10 points per game during two of their three games. The 49ers' best offensive player, running back Carlos Hyde, isn't 100 percent. The Cardinals' defense gets back linebacker Deone Bucannon for the first time this season.
10-01-17	Rams +6.5 v. Cowboys		35-30	Win	100	29 h 34 m	Show
Did you know the Rams are leading the NFL in scoring? It's true. After averaging a league-low 14 points last season, the Rams are putting up 35.7 points per game. The key is monster improvement from second-year quarterback Jared Goff. He was hindered by Jeff Fisher's neanderthal coaching last year. New coach, QB guru Sean McVay, has helped raise Goff's passer rating from 63.6 to 118.2. That's the largest increase ever for a QB going into his second season. Todd Gurley is a major factor now that defenses no longer can stack the line against him. The Cowboys have injuries in their secondary and are coming off a Monday night road win against the Cardinals. This is a short week for the Cowboys and a flat spot for them. Dallas hosts the Packers next week in a marquee matchup.
10-01-17	Bengals -3 v. Browns	Top	31-7	Win	100	96 h 56 m	Show
The Bengals are down this year. But they still are two levels higher than the Browns, who are 1-18 in their last 19 games. The Bengals have dominated this series winning and covering the last five times with every win during this span occurring by at least 13 points. Cincinnati has a much stronger defense than Cleveland and its skill position players are superior, too. The Browns have no wide receiver near the level of A.J. Green. Corey Coleman is Cleveland's top wideout and he's out. Joe Mixon also is better than any running back Cleveland has. I'm not an Andy Dalton fan, but he rates much higher than rookie Deshone Kizer. Dalton has thrown nine TD passes with no interceptions during his last four games against the Browns. The Browns were missing their best defensive player, linebacker Jamie Collins, last week due to a concussion. It's an added plus for the Bengals if Collins is out again.
10-01-17	Saints -150 v. Dolphins		20-0	Win	100	93 h 3 m	Show
The Dolphins are not at the stage the Saints are. The Saints have a dangerous offense thanks to Drew Brees and their defense proved respectable against a struggling offense, Carolina, last week. The Dolphins aren't in sync. They haven't had time to get Jay Cutler up to speed because of Hurricane Irma. This marks Miami's third straight away trip. The Dolphins won on the West Coast against the winless Chargers then flew coast-to-coast where they were manhandled and embarrassed by the Jets, the worst team in football. Now they have to fly overseas to London. The lack of practice and coehision really showed last week with the Dolphins as they were shut out by the Jets until the final play and outgained by more than 111 yards. Brees gets Willie Snead back from suspension and can easily light up a weak Miami secondary. The Saints have covered in 10 of their last 12 away contests.
09-30-17	San Jose State v. UNLV -12	Top	13-41	Win	100	93 h 18 m	Show
UNLV received a lot of bad publicity for losing to Howard in its first game. The Rebels were caught looking ahead to a revenge game against Idaho the following week. The Rebels beat Idaho and then were bashed by Ohio State this past Saturday. But now there couldn't be more of a difference as the Rebels go from on the road against the Buckeyes to hosting San Jose State. The Spartans are one of the worst teams in the country. The Rebels are a borderline bowl team. They can't afford a loss here and are aware of the spread after losing to Howard as a 45-point favorite. The Rebels have the offense to pour it on the Spartans, who give up 45.2 points per game and whose defense has been on the field the most of any team in the country by a wide margin. Utah State just beat the Spartans by 51 points this past Saturday. UNLV isn't strong defensively, but San Jose State averages fewer than 17 points a game and has quarterback problems. This is a lay-up game for the Rebels and they won't take their foot off the gas with the recent loss to Howard still fresh.
09-30-17	South Carolina v. Texas A&M OVER 49		17-24	Loss	-110	48 h 8 m	Show
I'm not buying a total this low in a game involving Texas A&M. The Aggies are averaging 40.8 points a game, while surrendering 30.8. The Aggies went Over the total by 35 points in their game against Arkansas last week. South Carolina's offense is much better than it has shown the past couple of games. The Gamecocks have had ample opportunity now to ajust to losing star wide receiver Deebo Samuel.
09-30-17	Air Force v. New Mexico OVER 49.5		38-56	Win	100	47 h 46 m	Show
This total is lower than I expected. Perhaps because rain is in the forecast. But temperatures are going to be in the upper 70s with little wind expected. These are two of the top rushing teams in the nation. Air Force ranks 11th while New Mexico is 20th. The past four meetings in the series have gone Over. Expect a fifth straight Over. There isn't anything fancy going on. Just two excellent rushing teams.
09-30-17	Navy v. Tulsa +7.5		31-21	Loss	-115	33 h 53 m	Show
The line is inflated because Navy is 2-0 in the American Athletic Conference already and Tulsa went 1-3 in non-league and is off a bad home loss to New Mexico. The Golden Hurricane, though, are much better than how they looked against the Lobos. They've also played the tougher schedule going against a pair of high-powered offenses in Oklahoma State and Toledo. Navy is a one-dimensional option team. Tulsa has a balanced attack with quarterback Chad President and D'Angelo Brewer, who will be the best running back on the field. If the Midshipmen key on Brewer, President can hurt them through the air. Navy ranks 81st in pass defense. Tulsa has yet to play its best game. I say it comes here at home in their AAC opener.
09-30-17	North Carolina v. Georgia Tech OVER 58		7-33	Loss	-110	40 h 14 m	Show
Georgia Tech's triple-option attack is humming. The Yellow Jackets lead the nation in rushing yards. North Carolina ranks 87th in run defense and 113th in overall defense. North Carolina quarterback Chazz Surratt is progressing. He passed for 259 yards against Duke last week and also rushed for 77 yards. North Carolina ranks 35th in passing. The Tar Heels are 1-3, but have led in the fourth quarter in all four of their games. There were 68 points scored in last year's game. There were 69 points scored when the two teams met in 2015 and 91 points scored in 2014.
09-28-17	Bears v. Packers UNDER 45.5	Top	14-35	Loss	-110	69 h 49 m	Show
The Bears have the worst wide receivers in the NFL. The Packers are going to be forced to scale their passing attack way down due to injuries to their top five offensive tackles. The result should be an Under, which would be the fifth time in the last six meetings played in Green Bay between these two teams that Under would cash. Aaron Rodgers has been sacked 13 times, most in the NFL, due mainly to the absence of his starting offensive tackles, David Bakhitari and Bryan Bulaga. They've yet to be on the field at the same time. Both of their fill-ins are hurt, too. In desperation, the Packers just signed Ulrick John from Arizona's practice squad. He could actually start. This being a Thursday game is a terrible break for the Packers. Not only does the short week hurt the Packers getting their deep back-up offensive tackles up to speed, but they may not have Randall Cobb either. He's their top slot receiver. This cluster injury problem at offensive tackle and the short practice time means the Packers are going to be forced to run more than usual. This is not a strength. Green Bay ranks 29th in rushing. The Packers have yet to find a capable backup behind starting running back Ty Montgomery. They let James Starks go during the offseason, drafting three rookie running backs, none of which have distinguished themselves yet. Both teams are well-coached defensively. The Packers rank in the top 10 in fewest yards allowed. The Bears have held the high-scoring Falcons to 23 points and Steelers to 17. Their defense has surendered six touchdowns versus three good offenses - Falcons, Buccaneers and Steelers. The Bears, though, average only 15.7 points a game. Not only is their receiver group the worst in the NFL, but Mike Glennon is a total stiff at quarterback. Straight out of the Brady Quinn check-down school, Glennon completed one pass to a wide receiver against the Steelers this past Sunday. That was a nine-yard pass on a third-and-16 in the fourth quarter. Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen are going to get a ton of carries, which will run the clock and keep Rodgers and Co. off the field.
09-28-17	Texas v. Iowa State UNDER 64		17-7	Win	100	16 h 14 m	Show
The perception is for a shootout to happen here. I don't see that occurring. Texas' defense has shown much improvement during its last two games shutting out San Jose State and holding high-powered USC to 17 points in regulation. The Longhorns are going to be looking to run the ball more than usual. That's because of injuries in their offensive line and an unsettled quarterback spot where either freshman Sam Ehlinger or a rusty Shane Buechele will be the quarterback. Iowa State leads the Big 12 in sacks per game so it has the capability to take advantage of the Longhorns' makeshift offensive line.
09-24-17	Chiefs v. Chargers OVER 45.5		24-10	Loss	-110	122 h 58 m	Show
The Chiefs are explosive with Kareem Hunt and Tyreek Hill. Alex Smith is much more aggressive with his downfield passing this year. Travis Kelce is a top-three tight end. It is plain wrong thinking to believe the Chiefs are a conservative team nowadays. The Chiefs are going to get their share of points against a Chargers defense that is likely to still be without stud cornerback Jason Verrett. The Chargers are almost always good for their share of points with Philip Rivers under center. Rivers has his full complement of receiving targets plus a top-10 running back in Melvin Gordon. Rivers' job is made easier with star safety Eric Berry out for the Chiefs. That's a huge plus for Chargers tight ends Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry.
09-24-17	Bengals +8 v. Packers		24-27	Win	100	32 h 52 m	Show
Aside from Aaron Rodgers, the Packers' two most important players are defensive lineman Mike Daniels and offensive left tackle David Bakhtiari. Neither is expected to play against the Bengals. The Packers may have offensive right tackle Byran Bulaga and wide receiver Jordy Nelson - stressing the maybe - but the Packers are going to be without star pass rusher Nick Perry, probably linebacker Jake Ryan and wide receiver Randall Cobb. The Packers also have several injuries in their secondary. So Green Bay is far from 100 percent. The Bengals are a desperate 0-2 team. The Bengals have been a major disappointment offensively, but their defense is solid. Cincinnati had made the playoffs five straight seasons until last year. Only one of their last six defeats have been by more than five points. Cincinnati has too much skill position talent for its offense to stay this bad. The Bengals' work-in-progress offensive line catches a huge break with Daniels not likely to play. A change in offensive coordinators from Ken Zampese to Bill Lazor could spur immediate improvement while boosting sagging team morale. A.J. Green is the best receiver on the field. Lazor will make sure Green and promising rookie running back Joe Mixon are big parts of the offense. The Bengals have had extra time to rest and prepare having last played in the Thursday game last week. The Bengals have been a jinx team to Mike McCarthy and Rodgers as they've never beaten them.
09-24-17	Seahawks +3 v. Titans		27-33	Loss	-110	133 h 57 m	Show
The Seahawks are struggling to put up touchdowns through two games. The Titans very well could be the best team in the AFC South Division. They have a lot of young talent. But the Titans lack the pedigree and experience to beat an elite team. I see the Seahawks, with their defense dominant as ever, hanging around to get the victory. The Seahawks know how to win. Tennessee isn't at that stage yet. The Seahawks should have had two additional touchdowns against the 49ers last week, but C.J. Prossie and Tanner McEvoy each couldn't hold on to touchdown passes that were on the money. Russell Wilson is better than ever and the Seahawks may have found their most effective running back with Chris Carson rushing for 93 yards on 20 carries against the 49ers. Thomas Rawls should also be more effective in his second game since returning from a high ankle sprain. The Titans could be without their lead running back, DeMarco Murray, and good-looking rookie wide receiver, Corey Davis. Both are dealing with hamstring injuries.
09-24-17	Browns v. Colts +1		28-31	Win	100	130 h 54 m	Show
The Colts are home, have the better skill position players and I like their quarterback better. The Browns have lost their last 14 road games. Rookie quarterback DeShone Kizer has been sacked 10 times and picked off four times in six quarters. He'll be without his top receiver, injured Corey Coleman. The Colts acquired second-year quarterback Jacoby Brissett from the Patriots on Sept. 2. Brissett had only seven practices before starting this past Sunday against the Cardinals. He nearly led the Colts to an upset win against the Cardinals with Indy losing in overtime. Brissett has excellent mobility and a big arm. He helped lead the Patriots to an easy win against the Texans, a much stronger defensive team than the Browns, last season. The Colts have more skill position weapons for Brissett than the Browns do for Kizer, including elite wideout T.Y. Hilton. The Browns will be without Myles Garrett and possibly star linebacker Jamie Collins, who is in the league's concussiohn protocol.
09-24-17	Giants +6.5 v. Eagles		24-27	Win	100	28 h 26 m	Show
It's a mistake to underestimate the Giants even though they are 0-2 and coming off a dreadful Monday night home loss to the Eagles. Clearly, the Giants have problems offensively. Eli Manning is past his prime and is behind a terrible offensive line without a good running back. But the Giants have an upper tier defense. The Giants didn't win 11 games by fluke last season. They are in desperation mode at 0-2 and are a nice value play here as previous to Monday night they were in the plus 3 1/2 range in early-look ahead lines. Odell Beckham Jr. is the healthiest he's been all season. The Giants' pass-first offense is going against a weak Eagles secondary made weaker by an injury to their best cornerback, Ronald Darby. Beckham should have a big game against Eagles cornerbacks Jalen Mills and Rasul Douglas. This is a perfect example of an inflated line due to an overreaction of the Monday night game.
09-24-17	Ravens v. Jaguars +4	Top	7-44	Win	100	127 h 44 m	Show
Forget perception. These two teams aren't that far apart. Baltimore hasn't made the playoffs the past two seasons. The Ravens have a below average offense made worse by several key injuries. The Jaguars are better coached now and an ascending team with plenty of defensive talent. There's also another major factor here: This game is at Wembley Stadium in London. Jacksonville is trying to establish London as a second home base. The Jaguars have played the last five years in London, winning the past two times. Baltimore has never played an overseas game. Anyone who has flown overseas can tell you how much a physical toll the time difference makes. There's also a mental focus. The Ravens are riding high at 2-0 and have arch-rival Pittsburgh on deck next week. This is a flat spot for them. The Jaguars, on the other hand, are in a foul mood after laying an egg at home against the Titans this past Sunday. The Jaguars know they can play well against this opponent having defeated the Ravens on the road in 2015. They nearly beat the Ravens in Baltimore last season losing 19-17 on a 54-yard field goal with 1:04 left. Blake Bortles is more game manager these days with heavy duty rookie Leonard Fournette to keep defenses honest. Joe Flacco isn't 100 percent after missing August recovering from a herniated disc in his back. He's alerady lost his most reliable running back, Danny Woodhead, and top offensive lineman, Pro Bowl guard Marshal Yanda, to injuries.
09-23-17	Washington v. Colorado OVER 50		37-10	Loss	-110	59 h 25 m	Show
Given how well these teams have been throwing and scoring, this total is short. Washington's Jake Browning is one of the top quarterbacks in college football. The Huskies rank 25th in passing offense and 11th in scoring averaging 47 points. The Huskies' ground attack is better than it has shown so far, too. Washingotn has a dangerous return game, also. Colorado is averaging 31.7 points a game and rates 27th in the country in passing offense. The Buffaloes' running attack is better than it has shown, too. The total is low because both defenses have been strong in the ealry going. I attribute this more to the competition they've played. Colorado's defense is stepping way up after opening against Colorado State, Texas State and Northern Colorado.
09-23-17	Auburn v. Missouri UNDER 60.5		51-14	Loss	-110	31 h 48 m	Show
It's become obvious that Missouri is way down. The Tigers have faced two Division I teams and been clobbered 31-13 by South Carolina and 35-3 by Purdue. Both of those were home losses. Now the Tigers host Auburn. Auburn is the only team in the country ranking in the top 12 in total defense, scoring defense and passing defense. Auburn gives up the fewest yards per play of any team in the nation. If Missouri can only score three points and gain 203 yards against Purdue, how are the Tigers going to fare versus maybe the top defense in the country? Missouri has been playing at a slower pace this season. The Tigers definitely won't try to speed up the game versus Auburn. Missouri QB Drew Lock has a 1-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last two games. Auburn has been playing at a slower tempo, too. The Tigers also are more ground-oriented so they're likely to stay on the ground sitting on a big lead thus keeping the clock moving.
09-23-17	Florida Atlantic v. Buffalo UNDER 63		31-34	Loss	-110	54 h 43 m	Show
The oddsmaker hasn't fully caught up to the fact that Buffalo's defense is much improved now in Lance Leipold's third season. That was evident in the Bulls' opener, a 17-7 road loss to Minnesota and it has stayed that way. The Bulls have yielded just 48 points in three games playing the Gophers, Army and Colgate. They own the fourth-stingiest pass defense in the country. Buffalo, though, is averaging only 19 points a game. Florida Atlantic could mange just a combined 33 points versus Wisconsin and Navy. The Owls did blow out Bethune Cookman, 45-0, in their last game. Both teams are better defensively than offensively and are stepping up after facing easier competition last week.
09-23-17	Rutgers v. Nebraska -13.5	Top	17-27	Loss	-110	97 h 51 m	Show
Before Mike Riley perhaps slinks back off to Oregon State, his Cornhusker should stop-the-pain given their home field advantage and lowly opponent, Rutgers. Nebraska is coming off back-to-back non-league losses to Oregon and a double-digit home upset loss to Northern Illinois. The last time the Cornhuskers lost two in a row non-conference games was 1957. Riley and Nebraska are under extreme pressure to perform better. Fortunately the Cornhuskers draw Big Ten patsy Rutgers. The last time the Scarlet Knights won a Big Ten game was 2015. Rutgers has lost 14 consecutive Big Ten contests. The Cornhuskers have underachieved all season. But they certainly have the talent to bury Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights are in a different frame of mind after snapping a nation-long 11-game loss streak with a victory against Morgan State.
09-23-17	Central Florida v. Maryland OVER 60.5		38-10	Loss	-110	27 h 4 m	Show
I'm going against early marketplace activity that has bet this total too low. Maryland scored 51 points against Texas and averages 57 points. Central Floirida buried Florida International, 61-17 in its opener and hasn't played since because of Hurricane Irma. Maryland was idle last week. So both of these teams enter this matchup extremely fresh and with ample time to game plan. This favors their offenses. Central Florida plays at a fast-pace. Knights quarterback McKenzie Milton threw for 360 yards and four touchowns against Florida International connecting with 13 different receivers. Maryland has one of the weakest pass defenses in the country surrendering more than 292 yards per game through the air. The Terrapins also have allowed their foes to convert on 50 percent of their third-down conversions. The Terrapins have outstanding running back depth, though. They rank eighth in the country averaging 315 yards on the ground. QB Kasim Hill has a high upside and has been efficient operating Maryland's offense. Hill should be in line for a big performance Central Florida's has a huge question mark at middle linebacker and a vulnerable secondary that has yet to be tested.
09-23-17	Old Dominion v. Virginia Tech OVER 52.5		0-38	Loss	-110	50 h 54 m	Show
Virginia Tech can cover this total alone. The Hokies are averaging 40.7 points per game. Freshman quarterback Josh Jackson has emerged as a star as he's 55-for-85 passing for 829 yards with a TD-to-Interception ratio of 8-to-0. Senior wide receiver Cam Phillips is having a monster season with five touchdown receptions while averaging 15.4 yards on 27 catches. Old Dominion, which is giving up nearly 26 points per game and who just surrendered 53 points to North Carolina, isn't going to be able to keep Jackson and Phillips in check. The Monarchs did get a spark in their 53-23 loss to North Carolina from freshman quarterback Steven Williams. He'll get the start here and catches a break with Virginia Tech star cornerback Adonis Alexander suspended. The over is 14-5-1 in the Monarch's last 20 road games while the over is 11-3-1 in the Hokies' past 15 non-conference matchups.
09-21-17	Rams v. 49ers OVER 39.5	Top	41-39	Win	100	29 h 12 m	Show
Guru quarterback coach Sean McVay is making an early difference as head coach of the Rams. The Rams joke offense of the Jeff Fisher era is gone. LA is much improved offensively ranking fourth in points and 10th in yards. Jared Goff has a 103.2 pass rating while averaging 9.8 yards per attempt. Last year's figures were a 63.6 QB rating and 5.3 yards per attempt. Goff's huge improvement has made Todd Gurley relavent again. Gurley is back to being the elite runner he was two years ago during his rookie season. The 49ers were a disaster both offensively and defensively last year. Their defense has improved, but it's still bad made worse by injuries to key defenders safety Eric Reid and linebacker Reuben Foster. San Francisco has looked dreadful offensively. Two major reasons for this is an adjustment period learning new coach Kyle Shanahan's offense and the schedule. The 49ers opened up against Carolina and Seattle. Now they drop down to the Rams defense. The 49ers aren't going to remind anyone of the Patriots, but their skill position level isn't as bad as it has showed so far. The 49ers offense should be better, especially here at home having had a couple of games to work the kinks out and dropping down in class. Brian Hoyer has had success before operating Shanhan's offense and he has a respectable runner in Carlos Hyde and wide receiver in Pierre Garcon.
09-18-17	Lions v. Giants OVER 42	Top	24-10	Loss	-110	17 h 7 m	Show
The Giants offense looked terrible in their opening week 19-3 loss to the Cowboys. But this total is too low even if Odell Beckham Jr. misses a second straight game. It's an overreaction to how bad the Giants offense played against Dallas. Before the rules heavily favoring offense, particularly passing, were instituted this total would be the equivalent of an over/under in the 30's. It's too low. Both the Lions and Giants are passing teams. The Lions defense is well below average. Detroit's defense set a modern-day record for highest completion percentage allowed last year along with finishing last in in opponent's average drive time. Eli Manning is at his best in a short passing offense, which is made to take advantage of Detroit's type of defense. The Giants' defense is strong, but may be without top cornerback Janoris Jenkins and leading tackler linebacker B.J. Goodson. The LIons should put up their share of points regardless if those two Giants play. Matthew Stafford has full command of Jim Bob Cooter's offense. The Lions went with a no-huddle on nearly half their plays last Sunday, the highest percentage of any team in Week 1. So the pace figures to be fast, which is a huge plus for the Over.
09-17-17	Packers v. Falcons -2.5	Top	23-34	Win	100	128 h 14 m	Show
Maybe the Packers will finish as the best team in the NFC, but right now the Packers defense isn't ready for Atlanta. Green Bay's defense showed improvement in Week 1. That was at home, though, against Seattle, which has one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Now the Packers go on turf to take on the Falcons playing their first regular-season game in their new $1.5 billion dollar stadium. The last time these two teams got together was in the NFC championship game, also in Atlanta. The final was Atlanta 44, Green Bay 21. The score wasn't even that close. The Falcons bolted to a 31-0 lead and coasted. The Falcons also beat the Packers during the regular season in Atlanta last year. Matt Ryan threw for a combined 680 yards in those two contests versus the Packers, while accounting for eight touchdowns. Ryan has his main weapons back. The Packers' young and inexperienced secondary isn't nearly ready for this kind of early road test. Look for Julio Jones to have a monster game. Defensive guru Dan Quinn has Atlanta's defense on the upswing. Aaron Rodgers isn't going to be able to keep up with Ryan. The Packers' offensive line isn't as good as it was last season. They are going to have a great degree of difficult playing in this setting especially if star right tackle Bryan Bulaga remains out with an ankle injury.
09-17-17	49ers v. Seahawks -13.5		9-12	Loss	-110	123 h 8 m	Show
The Seahawks have dominated the 49ers at home winning the past six times. They've beaten San Francisco by 19 and 16 points, respectively, the past two years. Seattle has the top defense in the NFL. All of the Seahawks' defensive studs are back and run-stuffer Sheldon Richardson has been added. The 49ers' work-in-progress offense isn't ready for this caliber of defense, especially in the toughest outdoor road venue. San Francisco could only manage three points and 217 yards of offense at home against Carolina this past Sunday. Russell Wilson has the best set of receivers he's ever had. Wilson is primed for a huge year. The 49ers defense took a huge loss when promising rookie linebacker Reuben Foster suffered a high ankle sprain this past Sunday. The Seahawks are in a foul mood after losing to the Packers opening week. They'll take their frustrations out on the hapless 49ers here.
09-17-17	Dolphins v. Chargers OVER 45.5		19-17	Loss	-110	24 h 18 m	Show
he Dolphins are much more dangerous offensively with gunslinger Jay Cutler replacing game-manager Ryan Tannehill at quarterback especially with Adam Gase, who coached Cutler to his best season in Chicago, as head coach. Cutler has an elite running back in Jay Ajayi and solid receivers with Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker, Kenny Stills and Julius Thomas. The Dolphins catch a break, too, in that the Chargers will be without their top cornerback, injured Jason Verrett. Ajayi should be in line for a big game, too, as the Chargers' new 3-4 defense was torched for 140 yards on the ground by the Broncos' mediocre rush attack last week. The teams met last season in Southern California and the Dolphins won, 31-24. Philip Rivers didn't have his best wide receiver, Keenan Allen, for that game. Allen is healthy now. Both teams are better offensively now than they were then, but the total is much lower than the 55 points they combined for last year.
09-17-17	Titans -125 v. Jaguars		37-16	Win	100	117 h 35 m	Show
Tennessee is the superior team with a much better quarterback in a matchup of Marcus Mariota versus Blake Bortles. The line is low because the Titans lost to the Raiders at home while the Jaguars dominated the Texans opening week. The well-coached Titans defensive brain trust, headed by Dick LeBeau, is going to stack the run against the Jaguars knowing Jacksonville's simple game plan is pound it on the ground with Leonard Fournette and have Bortles be a game manager instead of a gunslinger. The Titans have a much more balanced offense with two good runners and underrated receivers. Bortles is a turnover machine and doesn't have his No. 1 wide receiver as Allen Robinson was lost for the season with a knee injury. Only twice in the last three years have the Jaguars managed to string together consecutive victories.
09-17-17	Eagles v. Chiefs OVER 47		20-27	Push	0	21 h 14 m	Show
I was impressed with the poise and escapability Carson Wentz showed last week against the Redskins. Wentz was good as a rookie last season. He should be even better this year especially with an upgrade in wide receivers. Tight end Zach Ertz is Wentz's go-to target. Those two could have another big game with safety Eric Berry lost for the season. The over has cashed in 11 of Philadelphia's last 13 road games. The Chiefs aren't going to be the conservative outfit they've been before under Alex Smith. They showed that opening week stunning the Patriots in Foxboro. The Chiefs put up 42 points and 537 yards. Those are the highest figures ever allowed by the Patriots during the 18-year Bill Belichick era. Rookie Kareem Hunt and Tyreek Hill can make big plays for the Chiefs. That was evident against the Patriots. The Eagles' weakness on defense is their secondary. This weakness has been made worse by Ronald Darby, their top cornerback, suffering an ankle injury that likely will keep him out until late October.
09-16-17	Louisiana Tech v. Western Kentucky OVER 61		23-22	Loss	-115	81 h 21 m	Show
A little more than 10 months ago, these two teams were playing in the Conference USA title game. The total was lined at 78 1/2 and it flew Over with Western Kentucky winning, 58-44. That's a combined 102 points. Now, just into Week 3 of this season, oddsmakers are projecting these teams to barely reach more 60 points. It's a wrong calculation. Yes, Western Kentucky's offensive numbers are way down from last year. But much of that is skewed from last week's 30-7 road loss to Illinois. The Hilltoppers aren't playing a Big Ten opponent this week. They are much more in their element taking on fellow Conference USA rival, Louisiana Tech. Western Kentucky's Mike White is one of the top QB's in the conference. Look for a strong bounce back from the Hilltoppers offense facing a Bulldogs defense that ranks 120th in scoring defense allowing 40 1/2 points per game. Louisiana Tech has been strong offensively the past three years under Skip Holtz and that's the case again this season. The Bulldogs just reload on offense. They are a top-50 team in scoring averaging 35 1/2 points and should keep improving. These tems have met three times the last two years. The average point total from those three games is 96 points.
09-16-17	Idaho v. Western Michigan OVER 53.5		28-37	Win	100	36 h 12 m	Show
I have to question Idaho's defense after the Vandals surrendered 44 points and 550 yards to UNLV at home last week. Idaho has forced just one turnover this season. Western Michigan is stepping way down in class after opening with road games against USC and Michigan State. P.J. Fleck didn't leave the cupboard bare for Tim Lester as the Broncos have great running back depth and all-MAC tight end Donnie Ernsberger. Idaho should be able to trade points with its star quarterback, Matt Linehan.
09-16-17	Tulane +36 v. Oklahoma		14-56	Loss	-110	35 h 8 m	Show
Oklahoma certainly can be forgiven if it takes Tulane lightly. The Sooner, after all, are coming off a monster road win against Ohio State. Baker Mayfield is in serious Heisman Trophy contention after that game. But Tulane can cause some problems for the Sooners, enough to hang in and get this spread cover. The Green Wave should be improved after their young players took their lumps with a 4-8 record last year. The Green Wave have a decent pass rush and secondary. They also can chew up clock with their triple option running attack. This isn't an offense the Sooners are used to facing being in the wide-open, pass-crazy Big 12.
09-16-17	Purdue v. Missouri UNDER 77		35-3	Win	100	33 h 54 m	Show
Purdue is coming on offensively under Jeff Brohm and Missouri's defense remains a work-in-progress trying to get back to its form of two years when it finished 15th in the nation in total defense. But this total is too high. The Boilermakers aren't going against Lamar Jackson here. The Tigers should be fired-up defensively after getting rid if defensive coordinator DeMontie Cross. Missouri has a very good punter and a questionalbe field-goal kicker. So that's another plus for the under.
09-16-17	Virginia Tech v. East Carolina OVER 59	Top	64-17	Win	100	79 h 42 m	Show
East Carolina ranks 128th out of of 129 FBS teams in defense giving up an average of 616.5 yards in its two games. The Pirates just fired their defensive coordinator, Kenwick Thompson, after losing 56-20 to West Virginia last week. East Carolina surrendered 49 points in the first half so West Virginia called off the dogs in the second half. Virginia Tech smashed East Carolina, 54-17, at home last year. The 16th-ranked Hokies play at a fast tempo and freshman quarterback Josh Jackson is proving to be an excellent fit for their offense. Here's the thing about East Carolina. The Pirates also have a quick tempo offense. I expect the Pirates to contribute to going Over this total regardless if quarterback Thomas Sirk, who made his first start for the Pirates last week, plays or not due to a concussion he suffered last week. The Pirates figure to be throwing a lot here, which puts the pick-six for Virginia Tech very much in play. These teams shouldn't have a problem at least matching the combined 71 points scored in last year's game.
09-16-17	Air Force v. Michigan OVER 48.5		13-29	Loss	-110	43 h 32 m	Show
The marketplace reacted way too violently betting this game down too low. This sets up a value play on the Over. Yes, Air Force is a running team and Michigan didn't play that well versus Cincinnati last week. But the Wolverines have a balanced offense and are capable of putting up plenty of points here especially if they cut back - as they will - on turnovers. The Falcons have just one starter back on defense from last season. Air Force piled up 457 yards on the ground in a 62-0 blanking of VMI two weeks ago. The Falcons were idle last week so they should be fresh. Michigan, like Air Force, only returns one defensive starter from last season.
09-16-17	UL-Lafayette v. Texas A&M OVER 59.5		21-45	Win	100	42 h 23 m	Show
Texas A&M isn't taking its foot off the gas after blowing a 44-17 lead against UCLA and only beating Nicholls State, 24-14, last week. Make no mistake about it either, the Aggies have the firepower and are facing a horrendous defense that they have the capabiity of putting up 50 points themselves here. Louisiana-Lafayette is averaging 46.5 points in its two games, while surrendering an average of 57 points a game. The Ragin' Cajuns have a balanced attack, a bombs away quarterback in Jordan Davis and a dangerous kick return game.
09-11-17	Chargers +3.5 v. Broncos	Top	21-24	Win	100	71 h 20 m	Show
San Diego is in bounce-back mode after putting a league-high 21 players on the injured reserve last season. Philip Rivers is a stud quarterback and the Chargers have the pass rushers with Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram and a good secondary to keep the Broncos' offense in check. Trevor Siemian can't compare to Rivers. He's coming off a 3-5 record during the past eight games where he had a 10-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Siemian is lucky he doesn't have any real competition in Denver because he's one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league. Denver averaged a mediocre 22.2 points in 2015. That average sank to 20.8 last season when the Broncos also finished 27th in total offense. Their offense doesn't look any better this season unless Jamaal Charles can somehow recapture his magic. The Chargers have more firepower with Melvin Gordon, a healthy Keenan Allen and emerging tight end Hunter Henry not to mention the still reliable Antonio Gates. Denver's defense remains top tier, but it did lose T.J. Ward.
09-10-17	Giants +4.5 v. Cowboys	Top	3-19	Loss	-110	1090 h 53 m	Show
The Cowboys couldn't solve the Giants' defense last year averaging just 13 points versus New York in two games. The Giants won both of those games. They've now covered five in a row against Dallas winning three and losing the other two by just one and three points, respectively. The Giants have many of their same starters back on defense, including a strong secondary that is able to negate Dez Bryant and take advantage of Dak Prescott's inexperience. On the flip side, the Cowboys have a vulnerable secondary that Eli Manning can exploit with his improved receiving group that now includes Brandon Marshall to go with Odell Beckham Jr. and emerging Sterling Shepard. A lot went Dallas' way last year. You could make a strong argument the Giants are the better team. They were a hot 9-2 down the stretch last season before being eliminated in the playoffs by the Packers. Dallas' home field advantage is not worth this many points as the Giants very well could win this game straight-up.
09-10-17	Ravens v. Bengals -2.5		20-0	Loss	-115	460 h 55 m	Show
The Bengals are back to being a legitimate playoff contender, while the Ravens are likely to keep regressing due to a poor offense. Baltimore's defense isn't nearly the dominant force of years past. The Ravens don't have enough pieces to keep up with all of Cincinnati's skill position talent. A.J. Green always has been a Ravens-killer while being a consensus top-five wide receiver. Tight end Tyler Eifert is healthy, unlike last year. He's a premier tight end red zone threat. Added to this mix are good looking running back Joe Mixon and speedster rookie wide receiver John Ross. The best case scenario for the Ravens would be if Joe Flacco started instead of Ryan Mallet, who is one of the worst backup QB's in the league. Flacco is expected to start, but he'll be extremely rusty having not played during preseason recovering from knee surgery and a bad back. The Ravens' offensive line is in flux due to injuries and the unexpected retirement of center Urschel. Kenneth Dixon, probably the team's best runner, is out with injury as is tight end Dennis Pitta. There just isn't any way the Ravens can keep up with the Bengals' talent-laced skill position players. Then there is the road factor. This is the first time Cincinnati is opening at home since 2009. The Bengals have dominated this series winning seven of the last 10, including going 5-0 at home. The Ravens have lost at Cincinnati by an average of 12 1/2-points the past two seasons - and the gap seems wider this year. Baltimore is far less intimidating on the road. That's reflected in a 4-13 regular-season away mark. The Ravens have lost their past six road games. Their lone road victories last season occurred against the Browns and Jaguars.
09-10-17	Cardinals -125 v. Lions		23-35	Loss	-125	92 h 39 m	Show
The Lions were a bogus playoff team last season. The Cardinals should be much better after experiencing their first losing season in four years under Bruce Arians. Getting difference-makers wide receiver John Browns, safety Tyrann Mathieu and offensive tackle Jared Veldheer back from injury are huge for Arizona. Detroit has a weak defense - opponents completed a record 72.7 percent of their throws against the Lions last year - and a lackluster ground game. That's a bad combination. Matthew Stafford doesn't have a stud wide receiver like Calvin Johnson anymore to make the Lions feared offensively. The Lions can't beat good teams. Arizona is back to being a good team now that its properly motivated and has key players back healthy. David Johnson is the best all-purpose back in football. Carson Palmer remains dangerous when he has a clean pocket. That should be the case here with the Lions minus Kerry Hyder and Ziggy Ansah having to prove he's fully healthy. All my checkmarks go to the Cardinals - offense, defense and coaching. The Lions have lost the past seven times they've faced the Cardinals, including getting blown out, 42-17, two years ago at home.
09-10-17	Falcons v. Bears UNDER 50	Top	23-17	Win	100	115 h 57 m	Show
The Bears are going to struggle to move the ball with Mike Glennon under center and a very weak receiving group. Bears coach John Fox is conservative to begin with and he'll be more conservative here against an improved and aggressive Falcons defense. That means a lot of running with Jordan Howard, which keeps the clock moving and slows tempo. The Falcons rarely play on grass. That's not a plus for their high-speed offense. The Bears' defensive front seven is decent. Chicago is weak in the secondary. But this is a very high total especially given Chicago's limited firepower. The departure of guru offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan to the 49ers hurts Atlanta. The Falcons new offensive coordinator is Steve Sarkisian, who is new to the NFL. That sure doesn't seem like a fair tradeoff going from Shanahan to Sarkisian.
09-09-17	Minnesota +2.5 v. Oregon State	Top	48-14	Win	100	58 h 3 m	Show
Minnesota is the right side here. The Gophers aren't flashy. But they don't need to be here. They will control the trenches and dominate ball possession with a solid ground game featuring Rodney Smith running behind a strong offensive line. Oregon State has yet to show it can stop the run. The Beavers were pushed around by Colorado State and by Portland State, a FCS school. Oregon State's 58-27 opening week loss to Colorado State looks even worse with the Rams losing to Colorado, 17-3, last week. Oregon State was fortunate to beat Portland State winning, 35-32, as a 26 1/2-point home favorite. Portland State ran for nearly 300 yards against Oregon State. Minnesota's P.J. Fleck is an upper tier coach. He's sharp enough to play the cards he's dealt with - and that's to grind. That formula sets up well for this matchup. The Gophers don't have to do anything fancy here. Oregon State's home field advantage is reduced, too, for this game because school isn't in session yet and there is an air quality warning due to forest fires in the area that could lower attendance.
09-09-17	UNLV +7 v. Idaho		44-16	Win	100	54 h 52 m	Show
UNLV got caught looking ahead to this revenge matchup and was shocked 43-40 by Howard, an FCS school, last week. The Rebels were a 45 1/2-point favorite in that game making them the largest favorite ever to lose. The Rebels shouldn't have been that big of a favorite in hindsight. But they also shouldn't be this much of an underdog. UNLV has a very good offense. Rebel coach Tony Sanchez has done a good job recruiting. The Rebels were tabbed by many to earn a bowl spot. Now they need to win this game. They have been sick of hearing all week about their shocking loss to Howard. Idaho wasn't as good as its 9-4 record of a year ago. The Vandals have a rebuilt offensive line and their special teams aren't as dangerous. Idaho usually starts the season slow, too, covering only two of its last 11 September games.
09-09-17	Nebraska v. Oregon OVER 69		35-42	Win	100	54 h 22 m	Show
I'm expecting each of these teams to hit the 40-point barrier. Both teams are all about offense and have weak defenses. Oregon gave up 21 points in the first half to Southern Utah in a 77-21 victory last week. Tre Bryant rushed for 192 yards in Nebraska's 43-36 victory against Arkansas State last week.
09-09-17	Indiana v. Virginia OVER 56		34-17	Loss	-110	103 h 26 m	Show
Indiana is Indiana. The Hooisers score a lot - and they give up a lot. That was the case again in their opener, a 49-21 loss to Ohio State. Three quick takeaways from that game. The first, of course, is that Ohio State is an absolute powerhouse. In the argument for best team in the country. But also the Hooisers played at an extremely fast tempo and Simmie Cobbs showed his superstar potential. Cobb was hurt in the second game last season and missed the rest of the year. The former 1,000-yard receiver showed his great talent against Ohio State catching 11 passes for 149 yards and a touchdown. Cobb has an experienced quarterback in Richard Lagow, who threw for 19 touchdowns last year. Now the Hoosiers drop down to Virginia whose defense can't compare to the Buckeyes. The Cavaliers have a solid quarterback, too, in Kurt Benkert. Look for Virginia's offense to be much improved in the second season under Bronco Mendenhall. The key here is tempo with both teams playing fast.
09-09-17	Middle Tennessee State v. Syracuse UNDER 76		30-23	Win	100	51 h 3 m	Show
A lot has to go right for this total to go above this high number. While I do think Middle Tennessee State quarterback Brent Stockstill and Syracuse QB Eric Dungey will put up good numbers, it won't add up enough to go Over. Syracuse displayed some good defense in its 50-7 victory against Central Connecticut last week. Granted that was inferior competition. But I do think the Orange has improved defensively. Middle Tennessee State had problems protected Stockstill in a 28-6 loss to Vanderbilt last week. The Orange also must prove it can protect Dungey now that they are stepping up in class.
09-08-17	Oklahoma State v. South Alabama OVER 66.5	Top	44-7	Loss	-110	45 h 30 m	Show
This may look like a big total to go over, but it's not given the strength of Oklahoma State's offense and how bad South Alabama is defensively. Mason Rudolph is one of the top QB's in the country and he has a balanced attack. That was evident in Oklahoma State's season-opening, 59-24, win against Tulsa. South Alabama lost its opener, 47-27, to Mississippi. The Jaguars surrendered 531 yards and were non-competitive in the second half when their defense wore down. The Jaguars are missing their top pass rusher from last year, Randy Allen. South Alabama made strides last year. But the Jaguars aren't ready for this caliber of offense. Oklahoma State is the highest ranked opponent to visit Mobile in the Jaguars' nine-year history. The over has cashed now in 10 of South Alabama's last 12 non-conference games.
09-07-17	Chiefs v. Patriots -8.5	Top	42-27	Loss	-110	51 h 51 m	Show
There's a double-digit class difference here especially with the Patriots playing at home where they have covered 75 percent of their past 26 games. The Chiefs overachieved to finish 12-4 last season. They ranked 13th in points scored and 20th in yards gained. They also gave up the eighth-most yards. The Chiefs achieved their sterling record by big plays from special teams and a league-best plus 16 turnover ratio. The Patriots aren't going to make mistakes, or get beat on special teams. No team is better coached than New England. New England won the Super Bowl and looks even better on paper this season. Even losing Julian Edelman, Tom Brady still has a wide assortment of weapons, including deep threat Brandin Cooks, a healthy Rob Gronkowski and four verstailte running backs. The Chiefs can't come close to matching that firepower. The Patriots upgraded their secondary, too, signing cornerback Stephon Gilmore. Alex Smith threw for more than 300 yards just once in 16 games last season. He's done that just four times in his last 65 games. So the Chiefs are not a good backdoor type team. Kansas City had a chaotic off-season, too. There were surprising upper management changes with general manager John Dorsey getting fired. Former stalwarts Jamaal Charles, Jeremy Maclin and nose tackle Dontari Poe all moved on. Derrick Johnson and Justin Houston have to prove they are completely healthy.
09-03-17	Texas A&M v. UCLA OVER 58		44-45	Win	100	11 h 21 m	Show
Early betting has been on the Over - and that is the right way to go in this matchup. Texas A&M is a scoring machine under Kevin Sumlin averaging 35 or more points in all but one of his five seasons. The Aggies are deep at the skill positions again headed by stars at running back in Trayveon Williams and at wide receiver/returner in Christian Kirk, who caught 83 passes last year. Their offensive line is solid, too. UCLA is breaking in a lot of new defensive starers particularly at linebacker. Defense is where the Aggies took a major hit losing linemen Myles Garrett - the No. 1 overall draft pick - and Daeshon Hall. UCLA is loaded offensively, too, headed by pro prospect quarterback Josh Rosen. The Bruins are a passing team and the Aggies' pass rush should be way down. Rosen was under pressure by the Aggies in last year's game and didn't have one of his better performances. Yet the teams still combined for 55 points and more than 900 yards. The offenses are as strong, if not stronger this season, and the defenses are weaker. So this one goes Over the total.
09-02-17	Georgia Southern v. Auburn OVER 52.5		7-41	Loss	-110	293 h 34 m	Show
Auburn coach Gus Malzahn is an offensive whiz. The Tigers are going to be even more dangerous offensively this season with a balanced attack and Chip Lindsay as offensive coordinator to assist Malzahn. Look for the Tigers to do more passing with the emergence of quarterback Jarrett Stidham, a transfer from Baylor who is below the radar right now. He can run and has a strong arm. Auburn has two excellent runners in Kamryn Pettway and Kerryon Johnson. They combined to rush for more than 2,100 yards rushing last year. The Tigers also have one of the best kickers in the country, Daniel Carlson. Gerogia Southern allowed at least 30 points in four of its last five games. Auburn scored 51 points and piled up more than 700 yards against Arkansas State last year. That was the Tigers' lone game versus a Sun Belt team. Arkansas State is better defensively than Georgia Southern. The Eagles averaged 26.2 points during their last four games. Their option attack should be improved with Bryan Cook, a disciple of Paul Johnson, brought in as offensive coordinator.
09-02-17	Miami-OH v. Marshall OVER 46		26-31	Win	100	17 h 18 m	Show
The marketplace has knocked this total down enough where there is value going Over. Miami of Ohio's offense took off during the second half of last season once Gus Ragland became the starting quarterback. Ragland had a 17-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He's back and he has a full complement of good running backs and receivers at his disposal. Marshall was horrible defensively last year giving up 31 or more points seven times. The Thundering Herd's offense also was down. But I have confidence that Doc Holliday can fix Marshall's offense. Chase Litton is a decent quarterback and Marshall returns its top running backs. It's not too much to ask these two teams to go Over this total now that it's dipped below 47 especially given the quality quarterback play of both teams.
09-02-17	Troy v. Boise State OVER 62	Top	13-24	Loss	-110	53 h 6 m	Show
Plenty of up-tempo and speed here. More than enough to take this total over with all the offensive playmakers these teams possess. It's not a fluke each team averaged nearly 35 points per game. Troy is for real. The Trojans have more than enough offense to compete here with quarterback Brandon Silvers and nearly all of his receivers back along with running back Jordan Chunn, who also can catch. Boise State had only nine takeaways last season and lack the personnel to handle all of Troy's receiving weapons. The Trojans' drop is on defense against this caliber of opponent on the road. Spearheaded by Brett Rypien, the Broncos ranked 15th in passing offense. They have a balanced offense, too.
09-01-17	Colorado State v. Colorado -6	Top	3-17	Win	100	133 h 6 m	Show
This is a tough spot for Colorado State having opened with a victory this past Saturday against Oregon State in impressive style at their new $220 million dollar stadium. The Rams have to travel to Denver for this neutral site game with one less day of normal practice time. That's going to hurt them against the up-tempo Buffaloes especially in high altitude. Colorado buried the Rams, 44-7, last year. While I don't see the score being that lopsided again, Colorado is a clear right side and should win by double-digits. Don't be fooled by the Rams returning nine starters on defense. Their defense still is inexperienced and not good. The Buffaloes have a high powered attack with excellent receiving depth, a stud running back in Phillip Lindsay and an upgrade at quarterback with Sefo Liufau. Colorado State isn't going to be able to trade points with the Bufaloes.
08-31-17	Buffalo +24 v. Minnesota	Top	7-17	Win	100	11 h 19 m	Show
There's some hype here this being P.J. Fleck's first game as head coach of Minnesota. I like Fleck. But his Gophers are far from a powerhouse. They can't cover a number this high against an improved Buffalo squad. Fleck inherits a very young team with only four players on offense and four on defense who have started double-digit games during their careers. Nearly half of Minnesota's players are either freshmen or redshirt freshmen. The Gophers have a solid ground attack, but are untested at quarterback. Denny Croft and Conor Rhoda both should play under center. They've combined for only 34 career throws and one start. Minnesota ranked 111th in passing offense last year. Buffalo should be much better than its 2-10 mark of last season. Tyree Jackson is a dual threat quarterback, who flashed last season. His new quarterback coach is Jim Zebrowski, who was fired at Minnesota following the 2015 season. So he'll know the Gophers. The Bulls took their lumps defensively last season being extremely young. They return eight defensive starters.
08-26-17	Rice v. Stanford OVER 50.5	Top	7-62	Win	100	104 h 6 m	Show
Stanford lost a lot of defensive talent from last year, but still has more than enough offense to put up big numbers against one of the worst defenses in the country. Rice surrendered more than 37 points per game last season and gave up the sixth-most yards in the country. Opponents averaged a whopping 7.4 yards per play versus the Owls. The Owls are underrated offensively, though, thanks to a strong offensive line. The Cardinal are breaking in new safeties and minus star pass rusher Solomon Thomas. Stanford doesn't have dynamic Christian McCaffrey any more, but are deep at running back and its offensive line is healthy.
08-26-17	Oregon State v. Colorado State -3.5		27-58	Win	100	74 h 59 m	Show
The class difference is above the spread in this matchup. The Rams are a touchdown better than Oregon State especially playing at home. The Rams averaged 35.3 points a game last season. The Beavers don't have the defense to slow down Colorado State and their offense isn't balanced because of a weak passing attack. Jake Luton, a JC transfer, is untested and faced with a thin and inexperienced wide receiving group. Colorado State QB Nick Stevens can be highly effective against a vulnerable Oregon State secondary. The Rams played their best ball during the second half of last season averaging more than 46 points a game during their last six games. The Beavers have yet to win a road game in two years under Gary Anderson losing by an average of more than three touchdowns. Note, too, the Rams are 14-4-1 ATS during their last 19 non-conference games.
02-05-17	Patriots v. Falcons UNDER 59.5	Top	34-28	Loss	-115	306 h 10 m	Show
It's easy to think shootout with these two teams quarterbacked by Tom Brady and Matt Ryan. The oddsmaker certainly thinks so posting the highest Super Bowl total ever. Atlanta has a record-setting offense. Brady had another epic season. But a lot has to go right for a total to go above this number. These offenses are actually so precise that it's a factor for the under. Let me explain that. Neither team turns the ball over. They each had 11 giveaways during the season, tying for the lowest mark. The Falcons have had only one turnover in their last six games. So this should be a clean game meaning no short drives based on great field position off a turnover, or a fluke defensive touchdown. The Patriots have a bend-but-don't-break style of a well-crafted defense. They led the NFL in fewest points allowed at 15.6 per game. Yes, the Patriots played easy offensive opponents and weak quarterbacks in most of their games. But surrendering fewer than 16 points a game for an entire season still is impressive. New England has a very strong secondary. Malcolm Butler and Devin McCourty are elite players. There probably isn't a more well-coached defense than the Patriots. Having two weeks to prepare is huge, too, for the Patriots. Only three opponents have scored 30 plus points in 33 playoff games against Belichick. In 18 of those 33 games, playoff foes scored 20 points or less. The Falcons offense is too diversified and playing at too high of a level to hold completely down. But they are not in Georgia Dome, could accumulate some rust with the layoff and won't be able to make many long gains against a New England defense geared to prevent big plays. It's going to take long patient drives for the Falcons - featuring a balanced attack - for them to get points. Any drive resulting in a field goal instead of a touchdown is a win for the under with a total this high. Atlanta's defense has improved as the season progressed so its overall statistics are skewed. The Falcons have held five of their last six opponents to 21 or fewer points. Dan Quinn has transformed the Falcons from a finesse defense weak in the trenches into an aggressive, hard-hitting unit that found the right blitzing lanes against Aaron Rodgers in the NFC title game. Vic Beasley Jr. led the NFL in sacks. The Patriots also are without their No. 1 receiving weapon, Rob Gronkowski. The way to beat Atlanta is ball-control with a lot of power running. The Patriots can do that with LeGarrette Blount mixed up with Brady moving the chains with short passes. That's an effective attack. It's also time consuming. It's asking a lot for a touchdown to result after each long drive. That's what needs to happen, though, when you have an over/under in this record range. I don't see it occurring frequently enough. Under is the way to go. Prop Bet Recommendations: I find this Super Bowl harder than most for individual player props, which I normally like to specialize in, because these offenses spread things around so much. Any fantasy football player can tell you how difficult it is to project what Patriots will do well on any given week because their game plans can either go run heavy with LeGarrette Blount, or pass happy with a different receiver featured. I do think the Patriots will try to get Dion Lewis free in space against Atlanta linebackers so I would look to bet Lewis Over 2 receptions. My top prop, though, is laying around $1.75 on NO there will not be a special teams, or defensive touchdown. Neither team has a dangerous kick returner and both teams tied for the fewest giveaways during the regular season with just 11. Atlanta has turned the ball over once in its last six games. Brady doesn't throw interceptions unless he's heavily pressured and Atlanta lacks a great pass rush.
01-22-17	Steelers v. Patriots -5.5	Top	17-36	Win	100	139 h 1 m	Show
As Antonio Brown's Facebook Live feed showed the Steelers have a certain punk element to them. Punk teams don't beat the Patriots in Foxboro. Few teams beat New England at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots are 33-4 at Gillette Stadium the last four years for a winning percentage of 89 percent. They are 26-9-2 ATS during this span covering 74 percent. The Patriots have also covered 14 of their last 17 overall games. On paper this may look like an even matchup thus getting more than a field goal with the underdog Steelers would seem attractive. In my view, that's the wrong side. My analysis of the numbers, players and situation make the Patriots the right side laying less than a touchdown. Let's start with the coaching. Bill Belichick versus Mike Tomlin is a mismatch. Belichick has an added edge, too, in defensive coordinator Matt Patricia. Now let's look at the defenses. Both were fortunate to go against weak offenses and quarterbacks down the stretch. Pittsburgh has faced the Chiefs, Dolphins, Browns, Ravens, Bengals, Bills and Giants during its last seven games. None of those teams even has an above average quarterback. New England also played a number of weak quarterbacks during its last eight games. But the Patriots allowed an NFL-low 15.6 points a game. That's impressive no matter who the opposition is. Only one of the Patriots' last eight foes put up more than 17 points against them. New England's defense is peaking surrendering just 36 points during the last four games, an average of nine points a game. Now the Patriots draw their toughest offensive opponent - on paper. Ben Roethlisberger is far less effective on the road. His history bears that out, including this season where his home numbers were 20 touchdown passes with five interceptions compared to nine touchdown throws with nine interceptions away from Heinz Field. He has been intercepted nine times in his last six games. I rank Antonio Brown with Julio Jones and Odell Beckham Jr. as one of the three best wide receivers in football. However, Brown's fate is tied to Roethlisberger. A bad performance from Roethlisberger likely results in a bad game for Brown. And I like Roethlisberger far less on the road than I do at home especially against a disciplined, intelligent defense that New England presents. The Patriots defeated the Steelers, 27-16, at Pittsburgh in Week 7. The Steelers didn't have Roethlisberger so the result is skewed. The Patriots did keep Le'Veon Bell under control holding him to 81 yards rushing on 21 carries, a 3.8 average. Bell, like Brown, is a top-three player at his position. But Bell's running style is unique in that he has enormous patience waiting for holes to open rather than immediately darting. The Patriots' defense is well-suited to stop Bell's style because it's read-and-react that relies on well-coached design and gap protection rather than all-out aggressiveness and blitzing. I much prefer having Tom Brady at Foxboro than Roethlisberger. Not only is Brady the better clutch quarterback, but he's coming off another monster season finishing with the second-highest passer rating next Matt Ryan and throwing 28 touchdown passes to only two interceptions in 12 games. By not playing the first month of the season, Brady actually has a little less wear and tear on him. New England's inside/outside combination of LeGarrette Blount and Dion Lewis can be just as effective as Bell. Blount rushed for 1,161 yards and led the NFL in rushing touchdowns with 18. He bashed the Steelers for 127 yards on the ground and two touchdowns in the Week 7 victory. Lewis is a triple threat who is dangerous as a runner, receiver and kick returner. New England has won the past 15 times Lewis has been in the lineup. The Patriots don't have a receiver nearly as talented as Brown, but they do have receiving depth both at the flanks and out of the backfield with Lewis and James White. Julian Edelman is one of the best slot receivers and Michael Floyd has provided another veteran dimension. The scary thing about the playoffs is a lackluster performance can get you eliminated. The Patriots were flat last week against the Texans having been idle the week before. Yet the Patriots still not only won, but covered a 16-point spread against a defense better than Pittsburgh's. I don't see New England having a second straight mediocre performance. I'd say the chances are much greater the Patriots bring their "A" game. The situation favors the Patriots. New England got to play on Saturday. The Steelers were forced to play a tough, physical game on Sunday night thus losing an important day of rest so crucial this late in the season. Pittsburgh has covered only one of its last six road playoff games. The Steelers are 3-9 against the Patriots during the Brady Era, including 0-2 in the playoffs. The Patriots have never lost to the Steelers at Gillette Stadium with Brady going 4-0.
01-15-17	Steelers +1.5 v. Chiefs	Top	18-16	Win	100	162 h 36 m	Show
I believe the Chiefs are bogus and will get exposed here. Kansas City was outgained by 396 yards on the season. The Chiefs' home field advantage is a mystique, too. They are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games at Arrowhead Stadium. The Steelers aren't going to be bothered by cold weather either. The Steelers have a huge edge at the skill positions with Ben Roethlisberger, LeVeon Bell and Antonio Brown, who might be the best wide receiver in football. Bell is a top-three runner, maybe the best cold weather back, too. Roethlisberger is among the top seven quarterbacks. Their counterparts can't compare. Alex Smith is a bottom-10 quarterback, who represents no downfield threat. Spencer Ware is a mediocre back who has sore ribs and the Chiefs have no above average wide receivers. If West can't play, the Chiefs are in real trouble because that would mean third-stringer Charcandrick West is in line for heavy duty with Jamaal Charles on IR. But it's not just the Steelers having vastly superior skill position players. Pittsburgh also has the advantage in winning both lines of scrimmage. The Chiefs rank 24th defensively in yards allowed. They are minus their top linebacker, Derrick Johnson. They also could be without their best pass rusher, Justin Houston, and safety Eric Berry. Houston still is having problems with his surgically-repaired knee and Berry is slowed by an ankle injury. The Steelers defense has improved as it has gotten healthy. Since Week 11, the Steelers have led the league in sacks and takeaways. The Chiefs have averaged only 3.3 yards rushing per carry during the last 11 weeks. That would rank them 31st if computed during the entire season. Kansas City has parlayed excellent special teams and an NFL-best 33 takeaways into a 12-4 record. Talent-wise, though, the Chiefs are not a 12-win team. Tyreek Hill can make some big plays, but Kansas City lacks an explosive offense. Their defense is bend-but-don't-break and has injuries. It's not a given the Chiefs win the turnover battle. Pittsburgh is the hotter team, winners of eight in a row. The Steelers destroyed the Chiefs, 43-14, when they met Oct. 2 in Pittsburgh. Roethlisberger lit up the Chiefs going 22 of 27 for 300 yards and five touchdowns. Roethlisberger proved he can pick apart Kansas City's secondary and Bell can have success running against the Chiefs' 26th-ranked run defense. It's another plus for the Steelers if they get tight end Ladarius Green back for this game.
01-15-17	Packers +4 v. Cowboys		34-31	Win	100	150 h 57 m	Show
Even if Jordy Nelson can't play, I still like the Packers here. Green Bay is riding a lot of momentum with a seven-game winning streak, has one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time playing at a high level and Dallas lacks playoff experience and could be rusty. Only once in the last six years have the Cowboys made the postseason. That was two seasons ago and they lost to the Packers at Lambeau Field. This game is in Dallas, but it's a far better bargain to get this many points because of that. Dallas hasn't been played a really meaningful game in three weeks. The Cowboys closed 1-5 ATS with three of their last four victories coming by six, two and five points. They lack Green Bay's big-game, playoff experience. Their quarterback is a rookie. Aaron Rodgers has been a monster down the stretch with 19 touchdown passes and no interceptions during the last seven weeks. This total should be 21-0, but Davante Adams dropped two touchdown passes versus the Bears. Green Bay is averaging 35 points during its last five games. They've shredded three elite defenses - the Vikings, Seahawks and Giants - during this span. Those three teams all rank in the top five in either fewest yards or fewest points allowed. Dallas' defense isn't nearly as good as those teams. Green Bay swept the Giants this season, a team Dallas went 0-2 against. Despite a patchwork secondary, the Packers held in check and frustrated Odell Beckham Jr. They can do the same to Dez Bryant. The Packers have a wily well-respected defensive coordinator in Dom Capers and three guys who can rush the passer - a now healthy Clay Matthews, a still effective Julius Peppers and blossoming star Nick Perry. The Cowboys' best offensive lineman, left tackle Tyron Smith, is dealing with an MCI sprain. The Packers were five-point home favorites when they hosted the Cowboys in mid-October. Green Bay wasn't play well then and the Cowboys were. Now look at the spread. The Packers are peaking and the youthful Cowboys have the weight of the world on their shoulders.
01-14-17	Texans +16 v. Patriots	Top	16-34	Loss	-100	23 h 40 m	Show
Simply put this is too many points for the Patriots to lay against a Texans defense that gave up the fewest yards per game in the NFL and has held their last seven foes to 18.1 points per game. Tom Brady remains an upper elite quarterback. But he doesn't have his most potent weapon, injured Rob Gronkowski, and is facing the No. 2 ranked pass defense. The Texans posted their 18.1 average during the home stretch facing upper tier quarterbacks Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers on the road and Andrew Luck on the road. Jadeveon Clowney finally lived up to his vast potential helped make up for the loss J.J. Watt. He provides a strong pass rush along with Whitney Mercilus. The Texans have a number of former Patriots players and coaches, including still effective nose guard Vince Wilfork and coach Bill O'Brien. The Patriots enter the playoffs on a seven-game win streak. The only playoff team, though, they played during this span was the Dolphins. It's not exactly sharpening your skills beating the 49ers, Jets twice and, Rams during the last seven weeks of the regular season. In terms of facing offensive production, the Patriots were ranked last by Football Outsiders. The Patriots have built their fancy defensive numbers based in large part by playing the easiest schedule of offensive opponents. So this is taking more than two touchdowns with a clear superior defense, a spread range that rarely happens in that instance. It's fair to point out that Houston is another weak offense that New England draws. True. The Patriots blanked the Texans, 27-0, in early September at home with a third-string rookie quarterback. Some of that fell on O'Brien, who coached a horrendous game playing not to lose rather than to win. O'Brien is smart enough to have learned from his mistake. The Texans picked up some needed confidence in Brock Osweiler during their 27-14 playoff victory against Oakland last week. Osweiler has proven serviceable the past couple of games since regaining his starting job. He has the best wide receiver on the field in DeAndre Hopkins and an above runner in Lamar Miller. So the Texans have weapons. Bill Belichick's goal isn't to punish his former assistant O'Brien by running up a score. He just wants to get his Patriots quickly out of this game with a victory. Belichick isn't interested in style points. Only twice in their last 11 playoff games, have the Patriots won by more than two touchdowns.
01-08-17	Dolphins v. Steelers -9.5	Top	12-30	Win	100	145 h 31 m	Show
Steelers minus 10 hosting Dolphins It would be nice to get some line value, but that's not realistic in the NFL especially in the playoffs. Anyways, I don't see how the Dolphins can beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh in January. I trust the Steelers enough to win by double-digits. The Dolphins have many negatives. The Steelers have many positives. Miami's negatives: Traveling into cold weather. A career backup quarterback in Matt Moore. Even if Ryan Tannehill somehow gets clearance, his mobility will be restricted and he'll be rusty. The Dolphins are 10-6, but minus 17 in scoring differential. The Dolphins were blown out by the Patriots and Ravens. They gave up a staggering 589 yards to the Bills. They barely were able to squeak past one-win Cleveland and two-win San Francisco in home games. The Dolphins are without two of their best players, center Mike Pouncey and safety Rashad Jones. They also have other injuries at linebackers and cornerback. Playoff inexperience. The Dolphins last made the postseason in 2008. They last won a playoff game in 2000. Pittsburgh's positives: The Steelers are home, their superstars are rested and the team is peaking on a seven-game winning streak. Ben Roethlisberger plays far better at home. Pittsburgh is 16-4 with Roethlisberger under center the last three years at Heinz Field. Roethlisberger's touchdown-to-interception ratio at home this season is 19-to-5. Le'Veon Bell is one of the three-best running backs in the NFL. He should be in line for a huge game against the Dolphins, who rank 30th in run defense and are down several linebackers. The Dolphins also don't have a cornerback who can come close to matching up against Antonio Brown. The only home games Pittsburgh has lost this season were to the Patriots without Roethlisberger and to the Cowboys. The Dolphins are far, far below their teams.
01-07-17	Lions v. Seahawks OVER 43	Top	6-26	Loss	-108	51 h 5 m	Show
The Lions' defense has been torched for 73 points and 823 yards in the last two weeks facing the Cowboys and Packers in prime time games. It's not a fluke. Detroit's defense lacks playmakers, doesn't pressure the quarterback - just two sacks the past two games in 62 drop-backs - and has a vulnerable secondary. Russell Wilson is healthy and dangerous as ever. Seattle's defense, though, isn't as good as the past three years. The Seahawks are minus injured Earl Thomas, the best safety in football, and lacks the depth they've had before. Matthew Stafford is adept at throwing to a number of different targets. That negates some of Richard Sherman's dominance. The weather isn't going to be bad either with temperatures in the 30's. Prop Bet: Russell Wilson Over 1 1/2 TD Passes Wilson should have a big game against a banged-up, ineffective Lions secondary that surrendered the highest percentage of completions of any NFL by a wide margin. Darius Slay is Detroit's lone decent defensive back and he's far from 100 percent dealing with a groin injury. Wilson can't trust his ground attack so he'll be throwing a lot here.
01-02-17	Western Michigan v. Wisconsin OVER 52	Top	16-24	Loss	-110	46 h 3 m	Show
Look for offense to trump defense here even though these teams have excellent defensive numbers. Both teams have sharp offensive coaches in P.J. Fleck for Western Michigan and Paul Chryst for Wisconsin. Western Michigan's explosive offense averages 43.5 points per game and nearly 500 yards. The Broncos' terrific offense kept their defense off the field for long stretches. Western's Michigan's defense isn't as good as it's numbers because of this. I see the Broncos getting their points against Wisconsin. The Badgers have a defensive weakness that Western Michigan quarterback Zack Terrell can exploit and that's the deep pass. Terrell averages nearly 10 yards a throw and had 32 touchdown passes. Terrell has a top receiver in pro prospect Corey Davis, who caught 91 passes for 1,427 yards and 18 touchdowns. Wisconsin's secondary was lit up in its last game by Penn State. Nittany Lions quarterback Trace McSorley completed 71 percent of his passes for 384 yards and four touchdowns in Penn State's 38-31 victory. Non-league opponents aren't used to Western Michigan's powerful offense , a factor why the over is 10-4-1 in the Broncos' last 15 non-league contests. The Badgers put up 31 points against Penn State without their starting quarterback, Alex Hornibrook, who had a head injury. Hornibrook is healthy and will play against Western Michigan. Hornibrook isn't a star, but is enough of a passer to take advantage if Western Michigan sells out to stop the run. The Badgers' strength is running talented Corey Clement behind another outstanding Wisconsin offensive line. Clement has gotten healthy and lived up to his vast potential rushing for at least 100 yards in seven of his last eight games. Look for the Badgers to wear down the Broncos with their big line and physical ground attack.
01-01-17	Packers -3 v. Lions	Top	31-24	Win	100	107 h 57 m	Show
These two teams are going in opposite directions. The Packers are peaking while the Lions are sinking. Green Bay is riding a five-game winning streak and has the confidence of already beating Detroit this season and of having made the playoffs the past seven seasons. Detroit has lost two in a row and has a history of choking. Jordy Nelson has regained his pre-knee surgery star status and it's sparked the Packers offense. Aaron Rodgers still is in his prime, has found a reliable ground option in Ty Montgomery and has the best pass-protecting offensive line in football. The Lions were torched this past Monday by the Cowboys giving up 42 points. Detroit has just 14 takeaways and 25 sacks on the season. Their secondary is beat-up likely to be without their top cornerback, Darius Slay, and nickel back. They are extremely weak at three of the defensive backfield spots. Slay is dealing with a hamstring injury, one of the worst injuries a cornerback can have. He'll be a liability if he plays because he's not close to 100 percent. The Packers are going to get their share of points here. The key question is can the Lions keep up with their mediocre offense. Detroit lacks Green Bay's offensive personnel. Detroit's offensive line is merely average and its running backs are below par. The Lions have no star wide receivers. Matthew Stafford has made the Lions offense go as he's proven he's an above average quarterback and not just an inconsistent gunslinger who sometimes flashes. However, Stafford has been playing the last couple of weeks with a dislocation and torn ligaments in the middle fingers of his passing hand. This has forced him to play with a glove on his passing hand and he hasn't been effective because of it throwing more wobbly passes rather than tight spirals. In the last two games, Stafford's completion percentage has been 61.5 percent and 56.5 percent when on the season his percentage is 65.5. Stafford needs to have a high completion percentage because the Lions offense has been geared on short passes ever since the middle of last season when they made a change in offensive coordinators going to Jim Bob Cooter.
01-01-17	Saints +7 v. Falcons		32-38	Win	100	136 h 13 m	Show
Matt Ryan is in the MVP discussion and the Falcons are going to score the most points in franchise history. But the Saints also are going to get their points here - if not score more than Atlanta. As outstanding as Ryan has been this season, he's trumped by Drew Brees, who has thrown for more yards and touchdown passes than Ryan. The Saints offense is operating at peak efficiency scoring on 14 of their last 22 possession during their last two games against respectable defenses the Buccaneers and Cardinals. New Orleans has scored 79 points during the last two weeks. New Orleans is improved on defense, too. The Saints have held their last 12 opponents to 120 yards or less rushing. A return to health of underrated Sheldon Rankins and Dannell Ellerbee have upgraded their defense. This is a long-time rivalry. So the Saints aren't going to lack motivation in what could be the final time Sean Payton and Brees are together. New Orleans has covered eight of its last nine road games. Atlanta hasn't been dominant at home with a 4-3 mark and losing spread mark. The Saints have won in five of their last seven visits to Georgia Dome.
01-01-17	Cardinals -6.5 v. Rams		44-6	Win	100	47 h 5 m	Show
The Cardinals still have pride playing for Bruce Arians. They hold big matchup edges on the Rams and I expect them to show up against the Rams, who have yet to cover a spread since Jared Goff became quarterback. The Cardinals are a top heavy blitzing team. Goff has yet to display good pocket presence. I see him skittish in the pocket here. The Rams just want this season to end. Carson Palmer has been playing better and David Johnson is a monster who can set a bunch of records here. LA has allowed 16 touchdown passes in their last six games. The Rams are down their best wideout, Kenny Britt.
01-01-17	Raiders +2.5 v. Broncos	Top	6-24	Loss	-110	139 h 26 m	Show
The line has been over adjusted due to Derek Carr's injury. The Raiders are the superior team and have great incentive to win the division. The Broncos are out of playoff contention, quite a letdown for the defending Super Bowl champions. Carr was having an MVP season. Matt McGloin is a wild card. However, the Raiders still have an above average offensive line, good running backs and one of the better wide receiving tandems in Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. The Broncos can't generate any offense. Their running attack is feeble and now it appears they will be starting Paxton Lynch, which kills their passing game. I would take McGloin -sight unseen - above the inexperienced Lynch. The Raiders are plus 18 in turnover ratio. The Raiders outrushed the Broncos, 218-33, in winning the first meeting, 30-20, in Week 9. Denver's ground game is just as bad. Denver's defense still is very good, but has lost its dominance. The Raiders have proven themselves as road warriors going 8-1-1 ATS in their past 10 away games. They have a good spread history at Denver, too, going 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight visits.
01-01-17	Seahawks -9.5 v. 49ers	Top	25-23	Loss	-105	138 h 4 m	Show
Decimated San Francisco has lost 18 players for the season, including Carlos Hyde. Colin Kaepernick is going to have problems trying to figure out Seattle's defense, which does a great job of containing dual-threat quarterbacks, and doesn't have any reliable weapons anymore with Hyde getting hurt last week. The 49ers have covered just three of their last 14 games. Their defense is worn down from multiple injuries and being on the field way too much. A healthy Russell Wilson can take advantage. Seattle has a mediocre offensive line, but the 49ers are one defense they can control. The Seahawks will be fired up, too, after suffering an embarrassing defeat at home to the Cardinals. Pete Carroll certainly doesn't want to enter the playoffs off two straight poor performances and with playoff positioning still at stake. The 49ers pulled out their second win of the season this past Saturday against the Rams. They're totally outmatched here.

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