This total is too high. It would make more sense if the Cowboys had anybody worthy at the skill positions and this was the Falcons defense of a year ago. 
Atlanta is much improved defensively under Dan Quinn, who was the Seahawks' defensive coordinator last season. 
The Cowboys are minus Tony Romo and Dez Bryant. Without those two, the Cowboys' skill position players rank with the Arian Foster-less Texans and Browns as having the worst skill position set. 
Brandon Weeden is the worst starting quarterback going in Week 3 - and that's saying a lot with Jimmy Clausen and Luke McCown also drawing starts. Weeden is turnover prone, locks into one receiver and throws a high number of simple checkdown passes that gain little yardage.
The Cowboys do have a solid offensive line. However, their running backs are below average. Tempo is very important when playing a total. I see the Cowboys playing at an extremely slow pace and very conservatively. Their goal is to control clock keeping the ball away from dangerous Matt Ryan and Julio Jones. 
Ryan doesn't play as well outside of Georgia Dome. The Falcons also are without their best running back, Tevin Coleman. 

This is my strongest totals recommendation of the season so far. Indy's offensive struggles were well documented this past Monday night in clear view of a national audience - and the oddsmaker. 
That's why I believe this over/under is short. The Colts' offense is much better than it has shown. The big thing to keep in mind is the Colts opened on the road in bad weather conditions at Buffalo. Then they faced the Jets. Those are two elite defenses. I would rank both Buffalo and the Jets as top-four defenses.
Now the Colts drop way down in class to face Tennessee, a team they averaged 34 points against last season. Andrew Luck has better weapons and more depth at wide receiver this season. The Titans lack the talent and personnel to put heat on Luck like the Bills and Jets did. 
I have no doubt the Colts are going to put up their share of points. The matchup also sets up well for the Titans' offense, which is much improved with potential franchise quarterback Marcus Mariota. He's impressed me with his accuracy and poise. The Titans have underrated receiving weapons and Dexter McCluster provided an unexpected upgrade to Tennessee's ground game last week.
The Colts' defense isn't strong to start with and it's further weakened by a cluster injury problem in the secondary. 
Given the caliber and state of Indy's battered defense, Mariota can hang with Luck in what should be a shootout. 

Arizona has covered five of the past six times it has hosted UCLA. Now it's the Wildcats' turn to beat the Bruins straight-up.
It's a triple revenge spot for Arizona coach Rich Rodriguez in his fourth season with the Wildcats. Arizona has knocked off six ranked foes during Rodriguez's tenure and is 4-0 ATS as a home 'dog. 
The Wildcats have the offensive firepower and their defense gets a huge lift with the expected return of linebacker Scooby Wright, last year's Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year. He had missed the last two games because of a knee injury. 
The jury still is out on UCLA freshman quarterback Josh Rosen, who threw three interceptions last week. This is his first Pac-12 road start. 
Arizona quarterback Anu Solomon has been much more steady with a 10-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio compared to Rosen's 5-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Solomon has completed better than 68 percent of his throws. He can rely on Nick Wilson, one of the best running backs in the conference, and a deep crop of receivers. 
The Wildcats rank among the top seven teams in the country in points, yards and rushing. They did pad their statistics by burying Northern Arizona last week, but were able to provide some rest to the their starters in the 64-point victory. So they should be fresh for this Pac-12 opener. 
The timing is right, too, for the Wildcats as they catch UCLA without three of its defensive starters, including star linebacker Myles Jack. He suffered a season-ending knee injury in practice this week. 

I'm going to fade the early money that has come on Mississippi State. The line has gotten low enough to back Auburn on the money line. I see the Tigers bouncing back strong at home in this huge revenge game.
The Bulldogs defeated Auburn, 38-23, last year in Starkville. The Bulldogs, though, just outgained the Tigers by 28 yards. 
People are afraid to back Auburn because the Tigers have not looked good so far, are off a 24-point road loss to LSU and are switching quarterbacks. 
But home field, stepping down in class and turning to a better quarterback are all pluses for Auburn in this matchup. 
Auburn has won 15 of its 16 home games in the two plus seasons Gus Malzahn has been coach. This includes a victory against LSU last year and wins over Mississippi State and Alabama two seasons ago when they last hosted those teams. Auburn's lone home loss under Malzahn was against Texas A&M and the Tigers outgained the Aggies by 129 yards. 
Malzahn has made a quarterback change going from ineffective Jeremy Johnson to highly-touted Sean White, a consensus top 10 recruit two years ago.  
Mississippi State has failed to cover in four of its last five road games. The Bulldogs aren't as tough on defense as a couple of teams Auburn already has played - LSU and Louisville. Mississippi State lost 12 starters from a year, including its top defensive lineman and linebacker. Their inexperienced offensive line is going to be up against a tough crowd at Jordan Hare Stadium. 

This is a huge letdown spot for Notre Dame. The Irish are coming off a gutty upset beating 14th-ranked Georgia Tech at home this past Saturday. The Irish have a much bigger game on deck playing at Clemson next week.
So the Irish aren't going to be too concerned about lowly UMasss. The Minutemen, though, are dangerous under Mark Whipple. They are dangerous on offense. They nearly beat Temple losing 25-23 last week. The unbeaten Owls could be the best team in the American Athletic Conference. 
UMass has covered seven of its last 10. 
Notre Dame has lost six players. The Irish are down their quarterback, Malik Zaire, their leader rusher from a year ago, Tarean Folston, and safety Drue Tranquill.
These injuries have left the Irish inexperienced at quarterback and thin in the secondary. UMass is a throwing team ranking 19th in passing yards. 
Notre Dame has covered only once the past six times it has played a foe with a losing record. 

Kent State isn't very good offensively. The Golden Flashes have scored 10 points in two games versus FBS opponents. Kent State is much stronger defensively. The Golden Flashes have especially showed defensive improvement the past two weeks. Kent State has nine sacks and seven takeaways already this year. 
Kent State quarterback Colin Reardon has trouble when stepping up in class and he's facing a very good and athletic Marshall secondary. 
Marshall can get frustrated in its passing game by Kent State. the Thundering Herd are inexperienced at quarterback and wide receiver. I expect them to play it conservative and feature a lot of running from bowling ball Devon Johnson. That's going to eat clock and given Kent State's offensive problems against quick, athletic defenses should provide an under. 

Oklahoma State is going to get its share of big points with Mason Rudolph and its high-scoring attack. The Cowboys rank in the top 24 in points averaging 41.7 per game and in yards at 509 a game. Rudolph and David Glidden are one of the most feared combinations in the nation with Glidden catching three of Rudolph's five TD passes while coming up with six catches of 20 or more yards. 
Oklahoma State has gone over the total in 20 of its last 28 September games. 
Texas should be able to keep up now that the Longhorns have found their big-play quarterback in Jerrod Heard. Since an opening week loss to Notre Dame, the Longhorns are averaging 43 points and 463.5 yards against Rice and California. 
Texas always had the skill position athletes. The Longhorns just needed to find the right quarterback.

Expect Ohio State to be much sharper offensively and to not be in a generous mood after a flat performance last week against Northern Illinois. Urban Meyer has been known to run up a score and he could here. 
Ohio State star running back Ezekiel Elliott has put together eight straight 100-yard rushing games. He's been outstanding again this season, but quarterbacks Cardale Jones and J.T. Barrett have been up-and-down. Meyer is really pushing them this week. 
Western Michigan can score, with a high octane passing attack, but the Broncos have surrendered 214 points in their last five games. 

The Colts really struggled in Week 1 at Buffalo. But that was due to a combination of going against a strong Bills defense on the road and dealing with unfamiliar cold, windy weather conditions. 
The Colts' offense will look a lot better back at home in their normal setting on the fast track of Lucas Oil Stadium. The Colts were out of sync opening week, passing way too much and losing their franchise receiver, T.Y. Hilton, during the game.
Hilton practiced Saturday and should be a go. Andrew Luck has a loaded hand with the additions of Andre Johnson, Frank Gore and rookie Phillip Dorsett joining Hilton and Donte Moncrief. Luck also has a pair of good pass-catching tight ends, Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener, to attack the Jets.
Few teams can match Indy's skill position depth. The Jets' defense is going to undergo some culture shock going from playing the Browns opening week at home to now facing the high-powered Colts on the road. Further hurting the Jets is that Antonio Cromartie, a versatile and very good cornerback, isn't likely to play after suffering a knee injury against Cleveland. 
The Jets' offense is better than perceived. Ryan Fitzpatrick was coached up at Buffalo by Chan Gailey, who is the Jets' offensive coordinator. Fitzpatrick is at his best when he has weapons around him and doesn't have to overdo things. 
Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker provide Fitzpatrick with an above average receiving duo. Chris Ivory is expected to have a big year and he didn't disappoint in Week 1. Ivory should play despite getting nicked up in practice during the week. He is one of my fantasy football starters this week. That's how much confidence I have in him. 
The Colts' defense gave up 10.3 yards per pass to Tyrod Taylor, who was making his NFL starting debut, last week and 6.2 yards per run to Buffalo. The Bills don't have a big-play offense, yet they still produced seven plays of 20 or more yards against the Colts. 
Indy does not have a defense to match its offense. The Colts are vulnerable through the air especially in this matchup because their No. 2 and No. 3 cornerbacks - Greg Toler and Darius Butler - are both out. 

This isn't just a normal game for the Packers. It's their Revenge Game of the Century. And that's saying a lot since they've been in the NFL since 1921! I've personally closely followed the Packers since 1963, being a native of Wisconsin, and have never seen a bigger revenge game.
The Packers dominated the Seahawks on the road for 55 minutes of the NFC Championship Game this past season. Mike McCarthy's conservative play-calling and being unable to recover an on-side kick cost the Packers the game in which they once held a 16-point lead.
But now things are different. The Packers finally get Seattle in Green Bay. Even without Jordy Nelson, the Packers have eight Pro Bowl-worthy players on offense. Aaron Rodgers put up insane record numbers at Lambeau Field last season: a 28-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 133.2 regular season passer rating, highest in NFL history.
Seattle's defense is down from its previous two dominant seasons. Attrition and defections have chipped away at the Seahawks' defensive line and secondary depth. Two defensive guru coaches - Gus Bradley and Dan Quinn - have left for head coaching jobs. Safety Kam Chancellor, the quarterback of the defense, is holding out.
The Rams - with maybe the worst offensive line and starting two rookie linemen - scored 34 points on the Seahawks. 
Green Bay's defense is middle of the road. Seattle has offensive line problems with a lot of shuffling. It's mediocre at best. So are the Seahawks' wide receivers. Marshawn Lynch hasn't had as many big games away from Century Link Field. 
Seattle isn't nearly intimidating and doesn't play nearly as well on the road. The Seahawks are 2-9 SU and ATS during their past 11 September road matchups. 
This is a kill spot for the Packers. They'll get it done in a big way. 

The Eagles finally got their offense in gear during the second half against Atlanta. Unfortunately for the Eagles, they had dug themselves into too big of a hole to recover. Still, they could have taken a late lead if not for a missed 44-yard field goal.
The Eagles will be sharper in Week 2 at home. Dallas' pass rush is down without suspended Greg Hardy and injured Randy Gregory. The Cowboys also are without suspended linebacker Rolando McClain. 
The Eagles have improved defensively and draw the Cowboys minus Dez Bryant, their lone deep threat and by far their best receiver. The Cowboys lack the running backs and wide receivers now to trade points with the high-powered Eagles. 

The Bengals are better than perceived. They are solid on both sides of the ball without any major weaknesses. 
Cincinnati has been dominant at home going 14-2-1 SU, 13-3-1 ATS. The Bengals draw San Diego traveling from the West Coast with an early start time.
The Chargers are not the complete team Cincinnati is. San Diego has a weak run defense, vulnerable to the inside pounding of Jeremy Hill. They also lack a good pass rush.
Andy Dalton has his full complement of weapons with Tyler Eifert and Marvin Jones healthy, unlike last season. 
On offense, the Chargers are without suspended tight end Antonio Gates and injured tackle D.J. Fluker. Melvin Gordon has yet to step up to provide more than a mediocre ground attack in support of Philip Rivers. 

The Steelers are a much better team than San Francisco and catch a huge scheduling break.
The 49ers are off a home win Monday night against the Vikings and now must travel West to East on a short week. The 49ers had a lot to prove against the Vikings - and they did the job. Now they're in a letdown spot. This is an early start time, too, so their biological clocks are going to be off. 
The Steelers have extra rest and preparation time having opened last Thursday. The Steelers outgained the Patriots by 103 yards in their opening week loss. Even without suspended Le'Veon Bell, the Steelers have far more firepower than the 49ers.
Colin Kaepernick has been in steady decline for the past two seasons. Even with his mobility Kaepernick was sacked an NFL-high 52 times last season. The Steelers' defense has a lot of youth. They will improve as the season goes on. The Steelers' defense will look a lot better against the 49ers. 

The Saints are getting by on reputation considering how big of a spread this is.
Truth be told, the Saints' defense is awful again unable to get sacks or takeaways. Their secondary is highly vulnerable due to a cluster injury problem that has eliminated their two best defensive backs.
Drew Brees can't cover this up anymore. Brees is past his prime and has the least effective weapons he's had since being with New Orleans. 
The Saints' home mystique no longer is there either. Not only did the Saints fail to cover in their last five games at the Superdome, but lost each game straight-up. 
Tampa Bay lost to the Saints in overtime and by three points during its two meetings last season. The Buccaneers are better this year. Jameis Winston should play much better this week after enduring butterflies in his first NFL start last Sunday.
Not only is Winston going against a porous secondary, but he's expected to have Mike Evans. Evans missed Week 1, but should be a go this week. He's an elite, tall target. His presence makes Winston better. 

The Bears' defense has been franchise-history bad the past two years - and it's still very bad this season. John Fox and Vic Fangio have outstanding defensive backgrounds, but the players they have now don't fit their defensive philosophies. 
Chicago is composed of a bunch of defensive ends trying to play linebacker. The Bears' secondary is very weak, too. Kyle Fuller has regressed since the first half of his rookie season. 
The Cardinals have the passing game to take advantage with Carson Palmer throwing to Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and underrated John Brown. The Cardinals also have upgraded their receiving at tight end. Palmer has a 30-to-12 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last 16 starts while throwing for 4,466 yards during this span. 
Arizona's defense is down from last season after losing ace coordinator Todd Bowles. The Bears still have firepower on offense. Matt Forte remains one of the best all-around running backs in football. 

I'm not sold on Mississippi's offense facing a defense of this caliber. Alabama yields an average of just 63 yards on the ground and has held its first two foes, Wisconsin and Middle Tennessee, to under 300 total yards. 

I'm also not sold on Alabama's passing attack. The Crimson Tide are one-dimensional featuring lots of running that eats up clock. 

These teams are more about defense than offense. In fact, they both are in the argument for top defense in the country. Those defenses are ahead of the offenses right now. Neither team has fully established its offensive identity yet. 

There were just 40 combined points scored in last season's meeting. The year before that, in 2013, Alabama won, 25-0. 

 I'm surprised this total has been bet up. I'm glad to fade the early steam move. 

I tabbed Colorado to be much improved in Mike MacIntyre's third season and I like the Buffaloes strong in this rivalry matchup.
Colorado didn't show well opening week against Hawaii, but bounced back strong last Saturday destroying UMass. Note that this game is at a neutral site - Mile High Stadium in Denver. It's a big revenge spot for the Buffaloes, who blew a 10-point lead in last year's game.
Colorado can run the ball and have a tough rush defense. Only two Pac-12 schools have a better run defense than Colorado statistically-speaking. 
So far I haven't been impressed with the Mountain West Conference. So getting a Pac-12 school at this low price represents excellent line value. No team in the Mountain West has a worst turnover ratio than the Rams, who are minus 5.
Part of this stems from Colorado State undergoing a new offense and new regime under first year coach Mike Bobo. The Rams also are replacing their best quarterback ever, Garrett Grayson. 
I'm not as high on the Rams minus Grayson and their former coach, Jim McElwain. 

Navy's record-setting quarterback Keenan Reynolds was around when these teams last met three years ago. Navy rushed for 512 yards in a 56-28 victory. I don't see East Carolina being able to stop Navy's option attack, nor slow down Reynolds, who has accounted for 65 career touchdowns. 
The Pirates won't be able to key just on Navy's ground attack because they lost a lot in their secondary from last season.
I expect a lot of passing from East Carolina. The Pirates couldn't run on Florida last week, but quarterback Blake Kemp was 34-of-55 throwing for 333 yards and three touchdowns. 

I'm fine with freshman Eric Dungey at quarterback for Syracuse especially now that he's seen action. Dungey looked good in the second half against Wake Forest last week. 
Syracuse put up 40 points on Central Michigan in last season's game. 
Led by quarterback Cooper Rush, Central Michigan has a potent offense. Rush has weapons, too. The Chippewas rank 25th in the country in passing yards. They have gone over in 22 of their last 32 road games. 

Minnesota has gone to a no-huddle offense. That's helped the Gophers finally generate some offense. The Gophers are going to play quick tempo against an overmatched Kent State. Minnesota quarterback Mitch Leidner is an improving player.
The Golden Flashes ranked 107th last year in stopping the run. They gave up 52 points opening week in a road game against another Big Ten team, Illinois. 
Kent State has put up at least 20 points during each of its last four games except for the blowout loss to Illinois. The Golden Flashes showed plenty off offense in rolling up 45 points and close to 500 yards against Delaware State. 

The line has shrunk low enough to get involved with Florida State, which holds a talent and speed edge on Boston College. 
The Seminoles have just reloaded following the Jameis Winston era. Notre Dame transfer Everett Golson is an experienced replacement for Winston and doesn't have to feel a ton of pressure as the Seminoles have one of the best running backs in the country, sophomore Dalvin Cook. He's already rushed for 422 yards and scored five touchdowns in the Seminoles' opening two blowout wins against Texas State and South Florida. 
Florida State's defense has looked good, too. 
Boston College is 2-0, too, but hasn't played anybody. The Eagles have rolled past a pair of FCS members, Maine and Howard. The Eagles are a young team and they have yet to be tested. Their starters only played one quarter against Howard. 
This is what Boston College coach Steve Addazio was quoted as saying about stepping this far up in class in taking on ninth-ranked Florida State.
"I'm real worried about it right now," Addazio said. "There's not much you can do about it. Plus we're not a veteran team. ... It will be completely different." 
Sophomore quarterback Darius Wade is unproven in replacing record-setting dual threat Tyler Murphy and the Eagles also are breaking in five new offensive linemen. 

The Jameis Winston era has passed, but the Seminoles' offense remains highly potent with Notre Dame transfer Everett Golson taking over. He's backed by one of the top running backs in the country, sophomore Dalvin Cook. 
Florida State is a perfect 11-for-11 in second-half possessions this season. Golson can take advantage of a young, inexperienced Boston College secondary.
Florida State's defensive strength is its secondary. But Boston College is a running team with a deep crop of very good running back. Boston College has running backs adept at running both inside and outside. The Eagles finished in the top 15 in rushing last season and should duplicate that this season.
Boston College also has a dangerous receiver/returner in Sherman Alston. 

The Eagles certainly looked sharp in preseason steamrolling the Colts, Ravens and Packers. Now looking good during preseason doesn't necessarily equate to an opening week win, but in the Eagles' case it's not a fluke.

Philadelphia has achieved double-digit victories during each of Chip Kelly's first two years. Now, in Year 3 of Kelly's super high octane offense, the Eagles look the best they ever had under Kelly.

The Eagles' defensive front seven has been upgraded, the secondary is fortified with quality depth at the nickel and dime spots and Sam Bradford is the most talented quarterback Kelly has had at Philadelphia. The Eagles also have the finest running back trio of any team led by defending rushing champion DeMarco Murray. 

The Eagles are ready to state their Super Bowl case with an offense that has yet to be stopped. The Falcons don't have nearly the defense to slow down Philadelphia. 

Defensive guru Dan Quinn, formerly the Seahawks defensive coordinator, makes his head coaching debut for Atlanta. Quinn is trying to overhaul the worst defense in the league from a year ago, a defense that recorded only 22 sacks. Quinn is implementing a 4-3 scheme. Atlanta's defense, at best, is a work in progress right now. 

Quinn brings excellent credentials. However, this is way too tough of a test and way too early for the Falcons to show the necessary major defensive steps to stop the Eagles' already-in-sync powerhouse offense that is better with the highly accurate Bradford. 

The Falcons are going to need to trade points with the Eagles, matching them score for score. I don't see Atlanta being able to keep up. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones get a lot of media attention. They are outstanding. I rate Jones as the best wide receiver in the NFC. 

But the Falcons have a very suspect offensive line that also is learning a new system and Atlanta also lacks a polished ground attack. The Eagles' first three running backs - Murray, Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles - are all better than anything the Falcons have at running back. 

The Eagles not only hold edges offensively and defensively, but on special teams, too. Atlanta's home field isn't nearly enough to compensate for any of that. The spread is cheap here. Lay it. 

This series usually is about offense. The under has failed to cash the past five times. Look for that streak to continue as the Giants are dealing with multiple injuries on defense - especially at safety - and have not been able to develop and get used to their new defensive system. 
The Cowboys have an explosive passing attack that can take advantage. 
The Giants finished 10th in offense last season. Eli Manning quietly had a strong season. New York's offense should be even better in the second season under offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, who has made Manning more comfortable in a West Coast style offense. 
The Cowboys' defense lack experience in the secondary. Dallas will be without its top cornerback, injured Orlando Scandrick. The Cowboys also will be missing their best run stopper, suspended Rolando McClain, and most feared sacks guy, suspended Greg Hardy. 

These teams met opening week at Denver two years ago and the Broncos won in a shootout, 49-27. That's not going to happen here.

The Broncos have one of the best defenses in the NFL. Their first-string defense did not surrender a touchdown during preseason. The Ravens have a banged-up offensive line.

The Ravens finished in the top eight defensively last year in fewest yards allowed per game and fewest points allowed per game. 

Peyton Manning wasn't driving the ball toward the home stretch of last season and his physical form hasn't improved. Neck surgeries and assorted other injuries have taken their toll on the 39-year-old. He no longer can throw deep. The Broncos did not manage a touchdown during any of the 10 drives Manning led them on during preseason.

Elvis Dumervil and Terrell Suggs were the top pass rushing tandem last year. They will throw Manning's timing off. The Broncos will be running the ball a lot more in 2015 under new coach, run-oriented Gary Kubiak. 

There can be a tendency to overthink sometimes especially in the NFL. This game is an example of this. 
The Bengals are one of the few NFL teams without a glaring weakness. They made the playoffs each of the past four seasons. Their offense should be better this season with a return to health of A.J. Green, Marvin Jones and underrated tight end Tyler Eifert. 
Oakland should be slightly improved this season. But the Raiders are still at least two levels behind the Bengals projected to have the third-fewest victories of any team. 
The Raiders lost six game by 16 or more points last season. Derek Carr has yet to show he's more than just a check down quarterback. Oakland was held to 14 points or fewer in 62 percent of its games last season. 
Bottom line: The Raiders still are short on talent and depth. They simply aren't strong enough to hang within this short point spread of the Bengals. 

Redskins coach Jay Gruden is going against the NFL grain and turning Washington into a ground-and-pound team. The Redskins' offensive line is geared toward the run. The Redskins are going to rush the ball far more than imagined, which is great for the under.
Gruden wants this style in part to ease the pressure on Griffin and put him in better manageable spots. Despite good wide receivers, the Redskins are geared more to ball control than home run plays, which is a departure from past seasons.
Miami's defensive strength is its pass rushing from the edge and its defense now is fortified with maybe the league's top interior defender in Ndamukong Suh, who upgrades the Dolphins' rush defense and makes outside pass rushers Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon even more effective. 
The Dolphins lack an explosive offense and will be facing a Redskins defense that will be much improved from a year ago, especially after cutting ties with defensive coordinator Jim Haslett. Washington actually has excellent defensive line depth and underrated linebackers led by Ryan Kerrigan. 

The Packers have Jay Cutler's number. Cutler has lost his last seven starts against Green Bay, which has dominated at Solder Field winning 18 of the last 22 times there. The Packers have intercepted Cutler 19 times in 10 games. Cutler has a strong arm and is not without talent, but he's a head case and the Packers are inside his head.
The Packers don't need Jordy Nelson to bury a Bears defense that has ranked among the franchise worst during the past two years. This is saying a lot since Chicago entered the NFL in 1921! 
Chicago has some strong defensive coaches on board now, but they can't fix and rebuild this mess in one year. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has his own system, which he is trying to incorporate. The Bears lack the talent and personnel, however, to make it work. They also are thin at nose tackle with Jeremian Ratliff suspended. 
Green Bay has covered the last five times at Soldier Field and swept the Bears last year winning by an average of 31 points. Except for Nelson, the Packers have all of their offensive starters from last year back. 
The Packers' defense is much better than it looked against the Eagles during their third preseason game. The Bears have a cluster injury wide receiver problem. If Alshon Jeffery plays - which he didn't during all of preseason - his timing with Cutler would be off. The Bears already are down Kevin White and have been without their No. 2 and No. 3 wide receivers, too, as Eddie Royal and Marquess Wilson have been hurt. 

Congrats to Temple on beating long-time rival Penn State for the first time since 1941. 
Not to diminish the Owls' excellent home win, but Penn State was shockingly inept. 
The Owls don't have much time to celebrate as they travel to Cincinnati to face the offensively-loaded Bearcats. 
Not only does Cincinnati feature an outstanding passing attack headed by quarterback Gunner Kiel, but they have several excellent runners who unlike last season are fully healthy. 
The Bearcats won their last seven regular season games last season, all by eight points or more. They opened their season in style burying Alabama A&M, 52-10, at renovated Nippert Stadium. 
Cincinnati stays home while Temple has to travel off a week of celebrating the victory over Penn State. This is an important American Athletic Conference game for the Bearcats, who are on the road in three of their next four games. Cincinnati is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven ACC contests. 
No one doubts Cincinnati's outstanding offense. The key for the Bearcats is defensive improvement. Cincinnati looks improved there especially with its run defense. Temple does not have a strong offense. The Owls put up 27 points on Penn State. But in their previous seven games, the Owls averaged just 12.2 points per game. 
The spot and matchup set up well for Cincinnati. 

 

Same old story with Indiana. The Hoosiers can put up big numbers, but can't stop anybody. 
That was evident once again in Indiana's opener last week against Southern Illinois. The Hoosiers put up 595 yards of total offense and 48 points, but surrendered 47 points and 649 yards. 
Nate Sudfeld is a good quarterback and is backed by a balanced Hoosiers offense. Indiana catches Florida International in a tough situation spot. The Golden Panthers opened on the road last week and upset Central Florida as a double-digit 'dog, 15-14. Now they go back on the road off that emotional victory. 
FIU quarterback Alex McGough has thrown six touchdown passes in his last four games. He came on strong late in the season last year playing as a true freshman. McGough will find Indiana's defense much more to his liking than Central Florida's, which has given up an average of 14.7 points in its last four regular season games. 
McGough has two decent running backs, Anthon Samuel and Alex Gardner, and three good tight ends. 
The Hoosiers will be without one of their few good defensive players as linebacker Tegray Scales is sitting out the second of a two-game suspension. 

This is the right matchup to produce an over. Toledo may have the most productive offense in the Mid-American Conference. The Rockets scored 30 or more points in eight of their last 11 games last season. They are loaded at the skill positions. 
However, the Rockets don't have the speed to keep Arkansas in check. The Razorbacks have their own excellent skill position players, including quarterback Brandon Allen, running back Alex Collins and wide receiver Keon Hatcher. Arkansas rolled past UTEP, 48-13, in its opener last week. 
The Razorbacks are going to get their share of points here. The question is how many can the Rockets come up with? I'm confident they will do their share, too, to push this total over. 
The Rockets are anxious to play after their opening game against Stony Brook last Thursday was canceled after two quarters because of severe weather. Arkansas steps up in class offensively after facing the run-oriented Miners. I wasn't overly impressed with Arkansas' tackling in that game. The Razorbacks lost four of its top defensive players to the NFL following last season. The Rockets are far more balanced than UTEP and won't get shut down. 

Colorado is a frustrated team. The Buffaloes have been getting hammered in Pac-12 games. Colorado thought it could end an eight-game losing last week when it opened a touchdown favorite on the road against Hawaii. 
But quarterback Sefo Liufau wasn't that sharp and the Buffaloes lost 28-20. Now Colorado is home, where it plays much better, and has a foe it can hammer in UMass, losers of 31 of its last 36 games since moving up from the FCS' Colonial Athletic Association. 
The Buffaloes are capable of scoring big against a Minutemen squad that surrendered an average of 33 points per game last season. Colorado defeated UMass, 41-38, on the road last year with Liufau throwing three touchdown passes. The Buffaloes do have skill position talent. They know how to spread the ball around. Remember, they are a Pac-12 team. 
The Minutemen, though, have improved tremendously on offense under respected head man Mark Whipple now in his second year. UMass put up 45 touchdowns last year on offense last year, which was 28 more than the previous season before Whipple arrived for his second stint with the school.
UMass has an NFL quarterback prospect in 6-foot-6, 238-pound  Blake Frohnapfel and a star wide receiver in Tajae Sharpe, who caught 85 passes last year. The Minutemen have all but one returning offensive starter and catch the Buffaloes with several defensive line injuries. 

Expect the Big House to be rocking in Jim Harbaugh's Michigan home debut. Also expect quarterback Jake Rudock to play better than he did in Michigan's opening loss to Utah last week.
That came on the road. Now the Wolverines are home and stepping down in class drawing a low level Pac-12 team in Oregon State instead of the 24th-ranked Utes. 
Michigan not only has a huge talent edge, but Oregon State is traveling from the West Coast, playing at an unaccustomed early start time and lacking vital experience. 
First-year Oregon State coach Gary Andersen is installing a scaled down spread offense for his two freshmen quarterbacks. The Wolverines shouldn't have any trouble stopping this simplified offense. A new coach-new quarterback is rarely a good combination going on the road for the first time against a superior opponent. 
Oregon State wasn't necessarily impressive in a lackluster 26-7 opening week win against Weber State at home. Harbaugh will go after an inexperienced Beavers defense with a bevy of fresh running backs and a physical offensive line. Look for Rudock and the Wolverines runners to be much more in sync going from Week 1 into Week 2. 
Oregon State has failed to cover in seven of its last eight games. 

When these two teams last met two years ago at Gillette Stadium, the Patriots buried the Steelers, 55-31. That was the most points the Steelers allowed in their 81-year history. 

Tom Brady threw for 432 yards and four touchdowns helping the Patriots pile up a staggering 610 yards. Now it's two years later. And guess what? Pittsburgh's defense is far more inexperienced and worse than what it was in 2013. Troy Polamalu and Dick LeBeau are gone, too. 

The Patriots received a huge mental lift with Brady's suspension overturned, while the Steelers experienced a huge mental jolt after not expecting Brady to see the field. 

It has been a rough off-season and preseason for Pittsburgh. The Steelers lost All-Pro center Maurkice Pouncey with a broken leg. Star running back Le'Veon Bell is suspended. So is promising wide receiver Martavis Bryant. 

The Steelers' defense has looked terrible giving massive indications they are going to struggle. 

This is the 14th opening Thursday kickoff game. The home team has won 11 of the first 13. The Steelers have only covered one of their last nine September games.

These two Conference USA teams are all about offense with some of the best skill position players in the conference. 
Louisiana Tech has one of the best runners in the country in Kenneth Dixon and Florida transfer Jeff Driskel has found his niche with the Bulldogs. Driskel has a pair of excellent receiving targets in Trent Taylor and Paul Turner.
The Bulldogs finished last season averaging 41.4 points during its final nine games. Louisiana Tech opened 2015 pouring 52 points on Southern - in just the first half. Driskel was hot and Dixon rushed for 106 yards on just nine carries. 
Louisiana Tech beat Western Kentucky last season, 59-10. 
Western Kentucky can do its share of damage with quarterback Brandon Doughty, the nation's passing leader last season, and 1,500-yard rusher Leon Allen. Louisiana Tech lost its respected defensive coordinator, Manny Diaz, and has yet to be tested defensively. 
That's going to come here as it's quite a challenge for a Bulldogs defense that just played FCS-level Southern to revenge-minded Western Kentucky, the pick of many to capture the Western Division of Conference USA. The Hilltoppers scored at least 34 points in all but one of their games last season. 

Alabama is having problems deciding on a quarterback, while Wisconsin's quarterback, Joel Stave, just isn't very good.
Uneven quarterback play isn't going to cut it against these caliber of defenses. Only five teams gave up fewer points per game than Alabama last year, while the Badgers surrendered the fourth fewest yards per game in 2014 holding five opponents to their lowest yardage amount of the season.
Wisconsin has a well respected defensive coordinator, Dave Aranda, who stayed with the program despite a head coaching change. 
Both teams suffered heavier losses on offense than on defense. 
The Crimson Tide are breaking in a new quarterback and are without star wide receiver Amari Cooper, who was the first wide receiver taken in the NFL draft. All together, Alabama lost eight offensive starters from a year ago. So expect a conservative game plan from the Crimson Tide knowing Wisconsin has one of the top secondaries in the country.  
Wisconsin loses Melvin Gordon, maybe the best running back in college last year, along with three offensive line starters. Stave also has to find new receivers. Wisconsin does have a good field goal kicker in Rafael Gaglianone. So I envision the Badgers going for field goals and playing for field position rather than risk playing a wide open game, which isn't their style. 

While Wisconsin has a good field goal kicker, Alabama probably has the best punter in the nation in JK Scott, who had a 48-yard average last season. 

Too much of a class difference here for Wisconsin to stay within double digits of Alabama, especially being one-dimensional and lacking a passing attack. 

Nick Saban wants to come out of the gate smoking after losing 42-35 to Ohio State in bowl action last season. Wisconsin, by contrast, lost 59-0 to the Buckeyes.

Wisconsin is in transition with a coaching change to Paul Chryst. Pittsburgh was a slow starter when Chryst coached the Panthers before coming to Wisconsin.

Alabama owns edges all over against the Badgers, who are more inexperienced the perceived defensively.  

Texas has a big time reputation. But truth be told, the Longhorns can't compare to Notre Dame in terms of talent and experience. 
Texas' strength was its defense. The Longhorns, though, lost six starters, including four who were drafted by NFL teams. 
Notre Dame quarterback Malik Zaire is better than perceived and the Irish will control both lines of scrimmage. 
The Irish are home and off a confidence-building bowl win against LSU. Texas is in rebuild mode in Charlie Strong's second season. The Longhorns start a combined 12 freshmen and sophomores. They finished last season losing to TCU and Arkansas in a bowl game by a combined margin of 79-17. 
Texas doesn't have the goods to hang with an elite foe like Notre Dame, especially this early and on the road. 

Take Arkansas out of SEC play and the Razorbacks can score a ton such as putting up 73 points on Nicholls State, 49 on Texas Tech, 52 on Northern Illinois and 45 on UAB during non-conference games last season. 
The Razorbacks don't need injured Jonathan Williams when they still have Alex Collins, one of the best running backs in the country, an experienced quarterback, a pair of outstanding tight end and a mammoth offensive line. Collins has exceeded 1,000 yards rushing each of the last two years - and that was splitting carries with Williams. 
UTEP surrendered more than 28 points a game last season and lacks the defensive size and talent to handle Arkansas, but its offense can score. The Miners scored 26 or more points nine times last year. They have a very good running back, too, in 1,300-yard rusher Aaron Jones and a stout offensive line that has four starters back. Arkansas lost much of its starting defense from a year ago. 

This is a Week 1 mistake by the linesmaker as this total is too low. 

Northwestern's offense finished last season in grand style averaging 38 points a game during their last three games, including putting up 43 against Notre Dame. 

The perception is Stanford is going to be a dead nuts under team because of its defense. But the Cardinal has to replace seven defensive starters. 

Stanford also finished last season strong on offense putting up 31 or more points during its last three games, including scoring 45 versus Maryland. Senior quarterback Kevin Hogan was playing extremely well down the stretch and is back for his senior season along with eight other offensive starters, including four linemen.  

Washington underachieved last season and doesn't have nearly the talent it had in 2014. The Huskies are young and in rebuilding mode. 
So the timing of this opener at Boise State is not good for the Huskies and former Broncos coach Chris Petersen. 
Because of Petersen's return, this matchup takes on added importance and intensity for the Broncos and coach Bryan Harsin, a protegee of Petersen. 
Both teams are breaking in new quarterbacks, but the Broncos have the more experience and talent. Given their motivation, strong desire to reach the Group of Five berth in a College Football Playoff b0wl and strong home field advantage, this shapes up as a kill spot of more than two touchdowns for the Broncos. 
Boise State returns 19 starters, including its entire offensive line and three defensive line starters that has back Mountain West Conference sack leader Kamalei Correa. 
The Broncos desperately want to avoid last season's slow 3-2 start. The Broncos are on a 9-game winning streak since then, including a 38-30 Fiesta Bowl win against Pac-12 South champion Arizona. 
Washington's defense was inconsistent last year and that was with three first-round NFL draft picks. On offense, the Huskies are breaking in four new offensive line starters. 
The Huskies are at least a year away from contending in the Pac-12.  

Baylor blew out SMU, 45-0, at home opening week last season.
Now the Bears are laying five touchdowns on the road against a much more stable and improved Mustang squad. 
SMU was dysfunctional after June Jones bailed on them just nine days into the season.  
Chad Morris, the former offensive coordinator at Clemson, has had nearly two years to put his imprint and upgrade SMU after replacing Jones. Look for the Mustangs to be improved under the respected Morris, who has an up-tempo offensive style.
That style is key here because the Mustangs practice against it so they should be somewhat prepared for Baylor. The Bears were a scoring machine last year. They'll likely be a scoring machine this year, but they might be a little flat in this mail-in game. The Bears aren't that good to cover this monster road number without playing above average. 
Baylor is breaking in a new quarterback, offensive coordinator and punter. The punter the Bears lost was All-Big 12 punter Spencer Roth. He's replaced by a freshman. 
This is a much bigger game for the Mustangs. They bring back experience at the skill position and a quarterback, Matt Davis, who is a good runner and is experienced operating Morris' offense. Baylor ranked 107th against the pass last season. 
Baylor is just 3-7-1 ATS as road chalk during the last three years. The Bears, with new players at key positions, will use this game to work some kinks out. The Mustangs will be going all out. Given their expected improvement and motivation, they should be able to keep within five touchdowns of the Bears. 

Minnesota is not the pushover the oddsmaker and marketplace think it is. Not under Jerry Kill and his long time assistant staff. 
The Gophers have played in bowl games each of the last three seasons, including a New Year's Day Bowl game last season. 
Minnesota has covered nine of the last 13 it has been a 'dog under Kill. One of those non-covers occurred last season at TCU when the Gophers lost 30-7 as 18-point 'dogs. Minnesota had a cluster injury problem in its offensive line in that game and committed five turnovers. 
Now the Gophers are healthy and quarterback Mitch Leidner is more settled down being a junior with 16 starts behind him. 
TCU may very well be overrated by the linesmaker and public. A very good team, yes. A top four team ... no. Among their road games last season for the Horned Frogs was a one-point win against West Virginia, which went 7-6 in 2014, and a four-point victory against Kansas, which went just 3-9. 
If you discount that loss to TCU last year, the Gophers have covered seven in a row as double-digit underdogs the past two seasons. No, I'm not expecting an outright upset. But I do see the Gophers living up to their feisty underdog reputation at home in a revenge spot taking what I believe is an inflated number. 

New England has a strong offense and a decent-to-good defense. Seattle has the best defense I've seen since the 1985-86 Bears and a mediocre offense with the exception of a top-four running back, Marshawn Lynch, and a big-play quarterback, Russell Wilson, who rates with Aaron Rodgers (when healthy) and Andrew Luck as the only quarterbacks who can beat you three ways - with their arm, brain and feet.
Defense trumps offense even in today's watered-down, skewed-to-the-offense NFL. Seattle held Peyton Manning's record-shattering Broncos offense to eight points in last year's Super Bowl. New England's offense isn't as potent.
Tom Brady is 37 and still good. But he's not in his prime. He hasn't faced a defense this strong all season. Brady, Bill Belichick and the rest of the Patriots also have to deal with the underinflated football issue, which is a huge distraction. Don't expect the Patriots to be the beneficiary of many lucky referee calls.
The betting line is too high on New England right now based on how well the Patriots looked in the AFC title game against the Colts and how bad the Seahawks played against the Packers. No doubt the Seahawks stunk in that game and were lucky to survive.
That was Seattle's bad, turnover-filled game. I don't see it happening twice in a row. Prior to the matchup against the Packers, the Seahawks had given up an average of eight points during their last SEVEN games - all victories by double-digits.
Brady gets all the recognition, but previous to the Packers game it was Wilson who held the highest all-time quarterback rating in the playoffs. Wilson's record versus playoff teams this year is 7-1. The Seahawks are 20-7-1 (74 percent) ATS during their last 28 games versus opponents with a winning record.
Here are my prop recommendations:
Rob Gronkowski UNDER on receiving yards
Props are tilted to the over because the house knows the public wants to root for scoring and big plays. Gronkowski is the best tight end in football. He's going to have a high yardage total attached to him and probably still draw over money so I wouldn't be in a hurry to bet this as it may still go up. The Seahawks, though, are great at stopping tight ends. They have held the opposition's top tight end to an average of 28.1 yards during the last 15 games. The best tight ends they faced during this span were Greg Olsen twice, Zach Ertz, Travis Kelce, Jason Witten and Julius Thomas. Olsen averaged 37 yards a game. Ertz had 39 yards. Kelce was held to 37 yards. Witten managed just 24 yards and Thomas only 17 yards. Thomas was held to just 27 yards in last year's Super Bowl. The Seahawks are so tough against tight ends for several reasons. K.J. Wright probably is the best coverage linebacker in the NFL. Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor are the best safety tandem in the NFL if not of all-time. The Seahawks know Gronkowski is the one stud the Patriots have. They are not going to let him beat them.
Shortest Successful Field Goal OVER 24 1/2 yards
Pete Carroll saw first-hand how Mike McCarthy cost Green Bay a victory by taking short field goals and not going for it on fourth down and short. Carroll is a gambler anyways. Bill Belichick also is a gambler. He's also astute enough to not deflate his offense's confidence by settling for a short field goal if a fourth down play deep in Seattle territory is manageable. Belichick knows, too, the Seahawks just couldn't play for a short Brady pass because of power back LeGarrette Blount.
Russell Wilson UNDER rushing yards
Wilson is the best running quarterback in football, a fact not lost on the Patriots. They will have a full-time spy on Wilson in case he breaks containment. Because they have excellent cornerbacks, including shutdown corner Darrelle Revis, the Patriots will be able to play their safeties in the box looking to stop the run first. The Patriots are very familiar, too, with read-option quarterbacks as their AFC East Division was loaded with them - Geno Smith, Ryan Tannehill and E.J. Manuel.
Seattle to record the most quarterback sacks
The Patriots figure to throw more and Brady is far less mobile than Wilson. The Seahawks are not a big blitzing team, but after failing to apply pressure on Aaron Rodgers in their last game they could have some surprise new wrinkles to generate heat.

Andrew Luck doesn't have enough of a supporting cast to pull off a second major road upset. The Patriots are 49-7 (87%) in their last 56 home games. New England also is 17-4 ATS the past 21 times when laying single-digits at Gillette Stadium.
The Ravens were a tough matchup against the Patriots because their strengths matched up against New England's weaknesses. That's not the case here.
The Patriots can be run on and they aren't a great pass blocking team. But the Colts lack talent at running back and don't have any outstanding pass rushers. Indy also doesn't have the Ravens' past success and confidence in facing New England.
The Patriots have played and hosted the Colts three times during the last three years, which has been during the Chuck Pagano/Luck era. New England has won these games by 25, 21 and 22 points this season in a 42-20 victory on Nov. 16. Luck has been picked off eight times in these games.  
Tom Brady is far more accurate than Peyton Manning and Andy Dalton. The Patriots are averaging 40.8 points in their last five meaningful games. They should be good for at least 30 in this one.
New England's defense should be able to find its form against a Colts offense that lacks a ground attack and is fielding a makeshift offensive line that has been through 11 difference combinations with only one lineman starting every game.  

Seattle has the NFL's best defense in nearly 30 years. There is no way the Packers can dent it with Aaron Rodgers on one leg and playing at CenturyLink Field, where the Seahawks are 25-2 SU, 19-7-1 ATS the past three years.
The Seahawks are the hottest team in football playing their best ball with seven consecutive victories and covers. Each win has been by 10 or more points.
The Packers' defense is average at best versus the run and doesn't generate much of a pass rush. The Seahawks can beat Green Bay with Marshawn Lynch on the ground and with Russell Wilson's mobility and decision-making. Green Bay has problems with option-type quarterbacks and hasn't been good on the road. They lost 36-16 to the Seahawks, 19-7 to the Lions and 21-13 to the Bills when they played the three toughest defenses on the road. They also scored only 20 points on the road against two-win Tampa Bay, fell by 21 to the Saints in New Orleans and needed a touchdown with three seconds left to win in Miami.
Green Bay has a losing ATS road mark and averages 21 points away from home compared to averaging 39.7 points during the regulation season at Lambeau Field.

There are better defensive players than offensive players in this matchup. This is a down year for senior quarterbacks and it's reflected on each team's roster. There are no big stars and none of the quarterbacks have any former teammates to throw to. This makes their adjustment even more difficult in this type of setting.
The quarterbacks have marginal weapons to work with and are on a short week learning a foreign playbook. The game has averaged less than 35 points during the past five contests, which coincides with the move to Florida.

The Broncos rate a level higher than the Colts. Throw in a rested, home-field advantage and I see Denver winning this game by double-digits.
The Colts just have too many weaknesses that the magnificent Andrew Luck can't cover up.
Denver ranks No. 3 in total defense. The Colts are 19th in total defense, giving up 37 more yards per game than Denver despite playing an easier schedule. The Colts won 11 games during the regular season with eight of those victories coming against the Texans, Titans, Jaguars, Redskins and Giants. The combined winning percentage of those teams was 30 percent.
The Colts are not a strong road team just 14-12 SU and ATS during the three-year era of Chuck Pagano and Luck. They are 0-2 in the playoffs and lost on the road this season to the Broncos, Steelers and Cowboys by an average of 15.3 points.
Peyton Manning couldn't match his record 55 touchdowns and 5,477 yards thrown last season. But his 39 touchdown throws this season was one fewer than Luck's league-leading total and he had only 34 fewer passing yards than Luck.
Manning should be much sharper than he has been, too, with an extra week of rest and preparation. Unlike last season, the Broncos have a power ground game to take some of the load off Manning. C.J. Anderson emerged to score eight touchdowns and average 108 yards rushing per game during the last six games.
Denver also has a stronger defense than last season when it reached the Super Bowl. The Colts have gone as far as they can go with a makeshift offensive line, no ground attack and sloppy ball-handling, which has resulted in 17 turnovers during the past seven games.
The Colts aren't playing Andy Dalton here, or any of their AFC South Division patsies. This is a real step-up situation and aside from Luck the Colts don't have the necessary ground game and defense to pass the test.

The weather is going to be cold, but of far more importance to this total going under is the health of each team's quarterback, method of attack and underrated defenses.
Aaron Rodgers' calf is getting all the attention. We know he won't be 100 percent. But Tony Romo also is playing hurt bothered by a bad back and rib injury. Neither quarterback will have any mobility.
Both teams are going to be run-heavy pounding away with DeMarco Murray and Eddie Lacy. Murray is wearing down having had the second-most touches in a season since 2006. He's lost his second gear. Murray is averaging only 3.3 yards per carry during his last 76 carries.
Both offensive lines are very good. But they are not that strong in pass blocking when their quarterbacks can't escape any type of pressure. The coaches know that so expect a lot of conservative play-calling.
The Packers have greatly improved their run defense. They can afford to play their safeties up in the box because of the coverage skills of their cornerbacks.
Cowboys defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli has done a masterful job of coaching up his defense. Dallas doesn't have much talent defensively. But its defensive unit has played with heart and cohesion. The Cowboys defense also isn't worn down because their offense has been able to control time of possession.

I give Dallas plenty of credit. But I'm not sold on them. They lack talent on defense and are in a position they haven't been in during their present regime - being asked to cover a touchdown in the playoffs with all the pressure and Super Bowl hype surrounding them.

It's rare to get this many points with a defense as good as Detroit and with as many good skill position players it has.

The key for Dallas is DeMarco Murray. His running sets up Tony Romo and keeps the Cowboys' vulnerable defense off the field. Murray led the NFL in rushing, but he is playing with a surgically repaired hand and had a full workload during the regular season. The Cowboys are playing on short rest this week.

The Lions have the No. 1 run defense giving up less than 70 yards on the ground. Detroit also ranks No. 2 in total defense. Only two teams gave up fewer than the 17.6 points the Lions give up per game. The Lions' secondary is vastly improved.

Matthew Stafford didn't have an outstanding season, but he's a far above average quarterback and has one of the best wide receiving tandems in the NFL with Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate. Johnson is healthy again making him arguably the best wide receiver in the league. When the teams met last year, Johnson burned the Cowboys for 14 catches for 329 yards operating against the same cornerbacks Dallas has now. Detroit won that game.

Reggie Bush gives Stafford an edge runner and dangerous pass catcher out of the backfield.

OK, factor in three points for home field advantage for Pittsburgh. Le'Veon Bell isn't going to play. Now does that make these teams even?

I say no. The points are worth laying because the Steelers are in much better current form and have the superior quarterback. Baltimore's offense is in a slump, its offensive line is banged-up and its defensive backfield highly vulnerable due to injuries that have wiped out five cornerbacks.

Since beating Pittsburgh at home in Week 2, the Ravens have yet to defeat a foe with a winning record going 0-5.

Ben Roethlisberger is having his finest season. The Steelers average 27.2 points, 411.1 yards and 301.6 yards passing per game. The Ravens can't match that especially on the road where they have a history of playing much worse. Roethlisberger lit them up six touchdown passes in a 43-23 win in early November at Heinz Field.

Even without Bell, Roethlisberger has enough weapons to take advantage of the Ravens' battered, vulnerable secondary. Note, too, that  Bell was averaging just 2.7 yards per rush in his last three games worn down by 373 touches. The Steelers have three running backs with fresh legs who will be made to look good by the Ravens' safeties committing to helping out in the passing game rather than moving up in the box.

Joe Flacco has had one good quarter in his last three games. He needs a good ground attack to be effective. That's not likely to happen. The Steelers have gotten healthier on defense while the Ravens will be without left tackle Eugene Monroe.

Baltimore's only decent running back, Justin Forsett, is worn down after a career-high 235 carries. He had a combined 115 rushing attempts the past three seasons. Forsett hasn't broken the 72-yard rushing mark in three of the past four weeks. Pittsburgh has held nine of its last 10 foes to fewer than 100 yards on the ground. 

The line is cheap here. Oklahoma State freshman quarterback Mason Rudolph is making just his third start. He'll be facing a defense that has three All-Americans and creates tremendous pressure recording 49 sacks, 27 forced turnovers and nine defensive/return touchdowns.

The Huskies should easily control the line of scrimmage. Oklahoma State's offensive line isn't very good surrendering a Big-12 high 37 sacks. The Cowboys also will be without Tyreek Hill, who averaged 159 all-purpose yards per game and had the huge 92-yard punt return for a touchdown that set up the overtime victory against Oklahoma on Dec. 6. That victory allowed the Cowboys to reach this bowl game. Hill was kicked off the team because of being arrested and charged with punching and choking his pregnant girlfriend.

Prior to the win against Oklahoma, their regular-season finale, the Cowboys had lost five in a row all by 21 or more points. The Cowboys are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games. I want no part of them especially with Hill's violent action against his girlfriend tarnishing the Oklahoma victory taking away much of that good feeling.

Without Hill, Rudolph's main ground threat is pedestrian Desmond Roland, who averages just 3.8 yards per carry and didn't rush for 100 yards in a game all season.

Washington enters the matchup in good form having defeated Oregon State, 37-13, and Washington State, 31-13. Huskies quarterback Cyler Miles has a 16-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has passed for four touchdowns during the last two games. 

Junior Shaq Thompson is the best two-way football player in the country, starring at both running back and linebacker. He's a potential first-round pick if he declares for the draft. He's a huge player for Huskies. He averages 7.5 yards rushing and led the nation with four defensive touchdowns and four fumble recoveries.

Ohio State has a super offensive line and a very balanced attack - an excellent running back in Ezekiel Elliott and very good receivers. Ohio State rushed for 34 touchdowns and threw for 39 other touchdowns. The Buckeyes put up 49 points at Michigan State and 59 against Wisconsin at a neutral site. That's strong stuff.

Yet some doubt the Buckeyes' offense because they are using third-string quarterback Cardale Jones. I'm not one of those. Jones was a top high school recruit, who could have been an immediate starter for a lot of schools not as strong as Ohio State. He did very well against Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game in his debut going 12-for-17 for 273 yards with three touchdown passes. Jones is 6-foot-5, 250 pounds and is a load. The Alabama coaching staff just has film on Jones from the Wisconsin game. Jones will be helped, too, by having had 15 extra practice sessions leading up to the game.

Nick Saban doesn't have his usual dominant defense having lost five studs to the NFL after last season. Auburn scored 44 points and gained 630 yards on the Crimson Tide at Alabama. Five other teams threw well against the Crimson Tide, which ranked 59th in pass defense.

I do like Alabama's offense, though, which has become more wide open under aggressive offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin. The Crimson Tide averaged more than 37 points a game and had 32 touchdowns rushing and 30 through the air. Senior quarterback Blake Sims is mobile and passed for a school-record 3,250 yards accounting for 32 touchdowns while throwing just seven interceptions. He was sacked only 13 times.

Sims has outstanding weapons to work with including one of the best running back tandems in the country in T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry. Wide receiver Amari Cooper is expected to be a high NFL draft choice.

So offense - not defense - is the way to go in this matchup especially with a fast track inside a dome.

I want the SEC team going for me against the ACC team. I don't trust Louisville's quarterback situation and I like Georgia on both sides of the ball.

The Bulldogs averaged 41.7 points, best in the SEC. Nick Chubb is an elite runner rushing for 1,281 yards and scoring 14 touchdowns, 12 of which came on the ground. He ran for at least 100 yards and a touchdown during each of his last seven starts. Todd Gurley would have been hard-pressed to do better.

Georgia has a reliable quarterback in Hutson Mason, who has a 20-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Louisville could be down to third-string quarterback Kyle Bolin, who stepped in when second-string quarterback Reggie Bonnafon suffered a knee injury in the regular-season finale versus Kentucky. Bolin played well, but there is quite a difference from Kentucky to Georgia. The Bulldogs have the No. 2 pass defense in the country. They shut out Missouri and Troy while holding Auburn to seven points. Auburn averaged 35.8 points even being held to a touchdown by Georgia.

West Virginia has an underrated defense. Texas A&M simply has a terrible defense. The Mountaineers held Baylor to a season-low 318 yards. The Aggies have given up an average of 553 yards in their last three games and been outrushed by 531 yards during their past two games. No SEC team surrendered more yards than the Aggies.

Texas A&M has only beaten one opponent with a winning record and is in bad form losing five of its last seven. The Aggies are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games and already have made a change at defensive coordinator.

Yet the line has come down because West Virginia is going with a backup quarterback, Skyler Howard. The Mountaineers have a balanced attack with a good running back and several outstanding receivers. Howard is much improved and received some needed experience completing 57.1 percent for 483 yards and five touchdowns.

Howard threw three touchdowns in his first start in the Mountaineers' last game, a 37-24 road win against Iowa State. Howard also gives the Mountaineers a running threat at quarterback something they didn't have before with Clint Trickett. West Virginia coach Dana Holgorsen is a top offensive mind.

The Aggies are an SEC team, which must be respected, but they are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 at neutral sites and West Virginia played an extremely difficult schedule so the Mountaineers are battled tested.

This is my NFC Game of the Year and here is why:

The Panthers are playing their best ball down the stretch inspired by Cam Newton, who is back running and not just sitting in the pocket, and getting much improved play from both their offensive and defensive lines. Their secondary also has gotten faster with a switch to younger defensive backs.

Carolina is giving up an average of 13.3 points during its last three games in beating the Saints, Buccaneers and Browns.

Carolina also has a strong history under Ron Rivera in December going 14-4 SU and 12-5-1 ATS. New England is the only team with more December victories during this span.

The Falcons aren't nearly good enough to lay this many points in a winner-take-all division setting. They can't rush the passer and their secondary took a hit last week with the loss of safety William Moore. The Panthers can key on Matt Ryan, who is playing behind a makeshift offensive line and lacking a ground attack made worse with Steven Jackson not likely to play.

The Jets played their Super Bowl for Rex Ryan last Sunday and nearly upset the Patriots. I don't see New York having the motivation in this meaningless matchup to put forth a second consecutive strong effort especially visiting sunny South Florida. Without a strong game, the Jets can't stay close on the scoreboard.

Geno Smith is just a killer for the Jets with his many mistakes and turnovers. Smith isn't going to have Pro Bowl center Nick Mangold and probably is going to be missing Percy Harvin, too.

The Dolphins have a strong defense. They came very close to making the playoffs. Miami is 8-7. If not for late blown leads against three playoff teams - Packers, Lions and Broncos - Miami would be sitting at 11-4 and this line would be much higher.

Ryan Tannehill is having his strongest season. The Jets give up more than 25 points a game with a battered, overmatched secondary. There's a class difference here. The Dolphins are unified with Joe Philbin returning as head coach, being at home and catching the Jets at an opportune time.

(Editor's note: Long-time pro Stephen Nover is heating up as he goes for his 19th winning NFL season in the last 21 years. Stephen is 7-1 the past two weeks on his NFL premium and free plays and has his NFC Game of the Year going Sunday.)

The Eagles are flawed, but they still are the better team here. The key is will they play hard? Knowing Chip Kelly the Eagles will. Kelly is taking this game serious. He could have given Matt Barkley a chance, but he won't. 

The Eagles have the stronger offensive and defensive lines and a far better running attack than the Giants. The Giants have trouble protecting Eli Manning and the Eagles rank second in sacks with 49, one behind Buffalo. The Eagles also hold a special teams edge. 

The Eagles blanked the Giants, 27-0, in the team's first meeting. They have won and covered in six of their last seven visits against the Giants. 

Dallas doesn't need this game and figures to be resting banged-up Tony Romo and DeMarco Murray for much of the game. Without those two Dallas can't play ball control and protect their vulnerable defense, which has a talent deficiency.

The Redskins have the skill position talent at receiver and running back to take advantage. Robert Griffin III and the rest of the Redskins received a huge jolt of confidence with last week's upset win against the Eagles.

The Redskins will be motivated for this long-standing division rivalry matchup. They have covered the past four years hosting Dallas. Jobs are at stake for many of the Redskins. They should be hard here while the Cowboys are in a letdown spot having ended their four-year playoff drought by burying the Colts last week.

Houston isn't strong enough to lay double-digits with fourth-string quarterback Case Keenum, who is 1-8 as a starting quarterback in the NFL.

The Jaguars have shown a respectable defense and a no-quit attitude under defensive-minded Gus Bradley. Only four teams have more sacks than Jacksonville.

Sure Houston is still alive for a playoff spot - albeit a long shot - but Jacksonville also has motivation. This is a division rivalry made more intense by many of the Jacksonville players close ties to Texas. The Jaguars have revenge and extra preparation and rest time having played last Thursday. They have covered in three of the last four meetings with the Texans.

The Jaguars are extremely young on offense starting six rookies, including quarterback Blake Bortles. But these young players have some experience now and fresher legs. Bortles has cut back on his dreadful number of turnovers getting picked off just twice in the last four games on 140 attempts with one coming on a desperate fourth down pass against Baltimore.

I like these two offenses much more than the defenses. Nebraska is used to playing run-oriented Big Ten teams. USC is a different animal. The Trojans put up 49 points on Notre Dame in their last game.

Cody Kessler is a standout quarterback for USC, who has thrived under Steve Sarkisian. He completed 71 percent for 3,505 yards with a 36-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Running back Javorius Allen has rushed for 100 yards eight times and the Trojans have five good wide receivers led by the splendid Nelson Agholor, who caught 97 passes for 1,223 yards and 11 touchdowns.

Nebraska is going to get its share of points. The Cornhuskers average 37.4 points per game and 446.3 yards. They have Ameer Abdullah, one of the best running backs in the country, and quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr., who has put up excellent running and passing numbers. 

Flat out wrong favorite here. South Carolina has the stronger pedigree, is the better team and plays in the toughest conference in the country.

The Gamecocks have won their bowl games during each of the past three seasons, including defeating Wisconsin by 10 points last year.

Miami has been to just one bowl game during Al Golden's three previous seasons - and that was a 25-point loss to Louisville last season. The Hurricanes have lost during their past four bowl appearances.

The Hurricanes are just 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games. They have lost nine of their last 17 lined games by double-digits and finished the regular season on a three-game losing streak averaging less than 21 points a game during this span.

South Carolina certainly has had a disappointing year. No getting around that, but the Gamecocks are more dangerous than their record indicates having lost four games by seven points or fewer while playing in the toughest conference in the land. South Carolina has the better coach with Steve Spurrier and its offense has more pop with dangerous wideout Pharoh Cooper.

The Hurricanes' offense has gone downhill and they continue to commit too many penalties.

Rice is in bad form getting blown out by Marshall 41-14 and by Louisiana Tech 76-31 in two of its last three games. The Owls gave up the last 41 points in their loss to Louisiana Tech, which was their last game. That's not a good way to enter a bowl game.

Rice also was blown out by Mississippi State, 44-7, in its bowl game last season.

Fresno State has played well for the most part since an 0-3 start. The Bulldogs have much to prove with a poor bowl history and being the only under .500 team playing in a bowl game. The Bulldogs played the stronger schedule, have a talent edge and I see them motivated and getting the job done.

It's a plus for the Bulldogs to have played at Aloha Stadium - with the many distractions of being in the islands - during the last two seasons.

I see both teams scoring well over 30 points in this matchup.

Rice gives up more than 30 points and ranks 92nd in pass defense. Who can forget the Owls surrendering a staggering 76 points to Louisiana Tech in their last game. That has to totally destroy any confidence.

Fresno State always is strong at the skill spots and that holds true again this season with running back Marteze Waller and wide receiver Josh Harper. The Bulldogs, however, give up more than 36 points a game rank 111th in total defense. They have been at their worst outside of the Mountain West Conference giving up 52, 59 and 55 points when they played USC, Utah and Nebraska.

Rice has put up 31 or more points in five of its last seven games.

Look for defense to rule here. Memphis gives up just 17.1 points per game, which is fifth-best in the nation. The Tigers have a strong defensive front seven and are opportunistic with 27 takeaways. 
The Tigers' defense really came on holding their six opponents to an average of 13.3 points per game. The under has cashed 19 of the past 27 times Memphis has played an opponent with a winning record.  
BYU lost its star quarterback, Taysom Hill and best running back Jamaal Williams to injuries. Hill's replacement, Christian Stewart, is a pocket passer. Stewart picked up his play late in the season, but note that the Cougars finished the regular season taking on three weak defensive teams - UNLV, Savannah State and Cal. They are stepping way up in class defensively here.
Under Bronco Mendenhall, the Cougars also are worthy of respect defensively. Mendenhall is particularly dangerous with ample time to prepare. The under has cashed in six of BYU's last eight bowl games under Mendenhall. 
The Cougars have picked things up defensively, too, holding their last four opponents to an average of less than 17 points per game.  

Bruce Arians has done a masterful job coaching the Cardinals up this season, but he's drawing dead here because of his quarterback situation.

Seattle has gotten healthy on defense. The result is the Seahawks' dominant defense of last season is back as good as ever. The Cardinals can't compete against it down to third-string quarterback Ryan Lindley, who doesn't have the ability.

Since Carson Palmer went down, the Cardinals have only managed four touchdowns in five games. They lack a ground game to take the pressure off Lindley and Larry Fitzgerald hasn't been 100 percent.

Arizona would be hard-pressed to put up points against a mediocre defense let alone the top one in the league right now. Seattle has allowed just 27 points during the last four weeks.

Seattle is peaking, playing its best ball winning and covering its last four games, including defeating these same Cardinals, 19-3, when Arizona had Drew Stanton at quarterback. Stanton is bad. But Lindley is even worse.

Seattle is 18-6-1 ATS versus foes with a winning record.

Russell Wilson has the mobility to escape Arizona's pass rush and make big plays with his feet and arm. He's also very good at not turning the ball over. He's accounted for six touchdowns in the last four games with no interceptions. The Seahawks can wear Arizona's defense down running Marshawn Lynch while effectively burning the Cardinals' secondary with play-action passes.

Oakland has won its last two home games in convincing style against the Chiefs and 49ers. Those teams are at least as good if not better than Buffalo. So the Raiders are capable - when home like they are here.

The Bills are a feisty group that must produce an "A" effort such as they did last week in upsetting Green Bay to do well. But this is a brutal spot for Buffalo. The Bills are not a good road team and are traveling cross-country after one of their most satisfying victories of the season. It's the first time this season the Bills are road chalk and they are laying a touchdown with a bad quarterback.

Kyle Orton is an over-the-hill game manager who does have the savvy to rely on his defense rather than take chances and attack defenses. He's not the type of quarterback who can cover margins like this, though, especially on the road.

The Raiders can keep Buffalo's fierce pass rushers off Derek Carr because they have a talented running back they have underutilized up to this point - Latavius Murray. He's fresh and ready.

The Rams defense has come on in the second half to become arguably the most dominant defense in the NFL. In their last 5 games, the Rams have allowed just 46 points on two touchdown throws with eight interceptions and four forced fumbles. They have recorded 14 sacks in their last three games.

The Giants can't run the ball with Rashad Jennings hurting and their makeshift offensive line can't pass block well enough to make Eli Manning effective.

The Rams are very limited on offense with journeyman backup Shaun Hill at quarterback and a below average crop of wide receivers.

The Ravens and Joe Flacco aren't strong enough to lay this many points on the road against this quality of an opponent.

The Texans can rush the passer with J.J. Watt and run the ball with Arian Foster. Flacco is at his worst on the road and when being pressured. The Ravens are minus suspended run-stuff nose guard Haloti Ngata. They can't commit to stopping the run because their secondary is decimated with injuries and is a major vulnerable area.

The line is this high because the Texans are down to fourth-string quarterback Case Keenum. The Texans have weapons, though, with Andre Johnson back from a concussion. It would just be an added plus if DeAndre Hopkins can play. Keenum has experience with the Texans. He also has the multi-talented Foster to rely on.

Jimmy Clausen doesn't come close to matching Jay Cutler's talent level, but the Bears are going to play very hard in this division matchup because of the quarterback change. Clausen does have weapons - Matt Forte, Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett - and will be coached up by Marc Trestman, whose strength is coaching quarterbacks. Clausen isn't a scared rookie, but a veteran. He had an excellent preseason completing 64.9 percent for 7.6 YPA and two touchdowns. I believe he'll do fine for this particular game at home and with a rare motivated effort from the  Bears.

The Lions may let down having clinched a playoff berth yesterday following the Eagles' loss to the Redskins and knowing how dysfunctional the Bears have been, a team they destroyed on Thanksgiving by 17 points.

Detroit is just 4-16 ATS as road chalk and has covered only five of 16 times on grass. The Lions also have a horrible track record in December covering just three of their past 15 games in that month.

First off, the weather should cooperate in Boise with this being an afternoon game rather than a night matchup. The afternoon forecast is for temperatures in the 40's with a slight wind and small chance of rain increasing in the night.

Look for plenty of offense here. Western Michigan has an excellent quarterback, Zach Terrell, and running back, Jarvion Franklin. He was one of the top freshmen runners in the country rushing 1,525 yards and 24 touchdowns. Terrell threw for 3,146 yards and 23 touchdowns and had the third-best yards per pass mark at 9.53 in the country. 

Terrell should be able to take advantage of the Falcons secondary, which gave up the second-most passing yards per game in the Mountain West Conference. Air Force has to not only deal with Franklin on the ground, but Western Michigan has two outstanding wide receivers, Corey Davis and Daniel Braverman. Only three receivers in the country had more touchdowns than Davis, who scored at least one touchdown in all but one of his team's 12 games.

Air Force is not without majors weapons, including four good running backs and option quarterback Kale Pearson, who went he did throw was effective with a 14-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a passer rating of 162.5 Western Michigan allows 229.3 passing yards per game.

The Falcons also have one of the top kickers in the country, Will Conant. He was perfect on extra points and made 18 of 20 field goals.  

Aaron Rodgers is having an MVP season and Green Bay's offense looked great again on Monday against Atlanta. But that was at home against an extremely weak defense.

Now the Packers are traveling on a short week to take on Buffalo, which has one of the best defenses in the NFL. The Packers are not familiar with the Bills' defense having last faced them in 2010. They will have one less practice and preparation day, too.

The Bills lead the league in sacks with 48. They rank in the top five defensively in total yards, scoring points and passing yards. As good as the Packers are, they are not going to have their way against this strong of a defense on the road.

If you discount the Packers' road game against the Bears, Green Bay is averaging 19.4 points in five away matchups.

The Packers' defense isn't as bad as they looked on Monday night. Their run defense is much improved, the linebacker play is better with A.J. Hawk playing less and the secondary remains the deepest in football.

The Bills are a ball-control, grind-it-out type of team due to the lack of playmaking skills of Kyle Orton. Going by percentage of time on the field, Orton has been sacked more than any other quarterback.

Cold weather, snow and wind also could become part of the equation any time you play a game in Buffalo this late in the year.

Brian Hoyer has not been playing well, but I can't envision a battle-tested veteran Bengals secondary that has permitted just 14 touchdown passes all year getting beat by untested rookie Johnny Manziel making his first start. It's going to be difficult for the Browns to retain their full concentration this week because of all the publicity Manziel's first start brings.

The Browns play hard and their defense is better than their statistics, but they are not in the Bengals' class. Only once all season has Cleveland outgained a foe at home.

There is zero chance of defensive-minded Marvin Lewis taking the Browns lightly after Cleveland embarrassed Cincinnati, 24-3, during the Thursday night Week 10 matchup. The Bengals haven't seen Manziel, but they have seen the Browns' offense now. 

Andy Dalton has been sacked just 16 times. Only Peyton Manning has been sacked fewer times among starting quarterback. Dalton has his full complement of weapons back, including a now healthy A.J. Green, who has 33 receptions and three 100-yard games during his past four games with three touchdowns.  

If there is one team more dysfunctional than the 49ers it's the Raiders.

Oakland doesn't have the talent to keep within single digits of the 49ers and its home field advantage is reduced because of the closeness to San Francisco. The Raiders have failed to cover in eight of their last 10 home contests.

The 49ers' offense has been slumping, hurt by Colin Kaepernick's regression in the passing game and the strange play-calling of Greg Roman. But the 49ers still have way too many weapons for the overmatched Oakland defense to keep track of.

The 49ers' defense, though, still remains top-rate. The Raiders rank last in points per game, yards and rushing.

The Buccaneers have been tough on the road covering four of their last five away matchups. They beat Pittsburgh, defeated the Redskins by 20 and took the Saints to overtime.Only once in their last nine games have the Bucs lost by more than 10 points. In six of those games, the Bucs had a chance to win during the final quarter. The key for the Buccaneers is huge defensive improvement as Lovie Smith's Cover 2 schemes - difficult to pick up at first - are assimilated. Since the midway point of the season, the Bucs ranked first in the league in yards per pass allowed and are fifth in sack percentage. Until blasting the defensive-challenged Bears on Thanksgiving, the Lions hadn't broken the 24-point barrier in 10 consecutive games. The Lions are fat and happy right now after destroying the Bears. This is their last non-division regular season game. The Lions have failed to cover in seven of their last nine home games when taking on an opponent with a losing road mark. 

I respect Urban Meyer and Ohio State's depth, but the Buckeyes are in too bad of shape for this Big Ten title matchup.

The Buckeyes are down to third-stringer Cardale Jones at quarterback after J.T. Barrett suffered a broken ankle during the Buckeyes' highly-emotional 42-28 win over arch-rival Michigan last week. The Buckeyes also had to endure the death of one of their players. So it's been a hellish roller coaster ride for them.

Wisconsin is very steady and features the person I consider the best college running back in the country, Melvin Gordon. The combination of the Badgers' No. 2 ranked defense facing off against a young, untested quarterback in a monster spot and Gordon is enough to put me on Wisconsin.

It does not hurt, either, that Wisconsin QB Joel Stave has stepped up after a slow start. He's completed 66.7 percent during the last four games with four touchdown passes, which is better than it may look since the Badgers are such a heavy run-oriented team.

Peyton Manning versus Alex Smith. That's really it in a nutshell. The Broncos have yet to lose in five games against the Chiefs with Manning at quarterback. Smith is 0-3 against the Broncos during this span.

Manning has thrown 18 touchdown passes to wide receivers this season. Smith has yet to connect with a wide receiver for a touchdown. It's just another plus for Denver if star tight end Julius Thomas plays. He has 12 receiving touchdowns. No receiver has scored more touchdowns.

Three of the Chiefs' key defensive players are Justin Houston, safety Eric Berry and linebacker Derrick Johnson. Johnson was lost early in the season for the year. Houston hasn't sacked Manning in three games and Berry now is out for the year after being diagnosed with a possible cancerous mass in his chest. 

Thanks to C.J. Anderson, the Broncos now have a balanced attack. He's averaged 5.6 yards per carry during the last three games giving Denver its best running back play of the season. He also is dangerous out of the backfield.

The Chiefs rely almost solely on Jamaal Charles. He's a magnificent runner, but he can't do it alone especially when the Broncos will be keying on him.

Denver's offense gets all the attention ranking in the top five in scoring and passing. But its run defense ranks No. 2 holding foes to 75.5 yards on the ground.

Even with these two great offenses in prime form, everything has to go right for this game to go over this high of a total.

Already there are three factors working against this. The first is weather. The temperature will be in the 20s and there will be wind in the 14 mph range with gusts that could reach as high as 21 mph.

The second are these defenses aren't as bad as some people think. The Patriots can limit, if not take away, Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb because they have outstanding cornerbacks Darrelle Revis and Brandon Bower. The Vikings were able to limit Nelson and Cobb last week with inferior corners. Aaron Rodgers has never faced Bill Belichick, who remains the best at devising specific game plans both offensively and defensively.

Green Bay's defense has improved, too, getting much better safety play. Clay Matthews has moved into a hybrid linebacker spot playing both inside and outside, which has made Green Bay stronger at linebacker, and defensive lineman Letroy Guion is playing much better shoring up the middle of the defense. In their last six games, the Packers have given up only two runs of 20 or more yards. Matthews and Julius Peppers give Green Bay needed versatility.

The third key factor is both teams figure to do a lot of running, more than normal. Green Bay has improved its run defense, but it still is far from a strength. Belichick wants to keep Rodgers off the field. He'll try to accomplish that by giving the ball a lot to power runners LeGarrette Blount and Jonas Gray. 

The Packers respect Tom Brady as much as Belichick respects Rodgers. So Green Bay will pound Eddie Lacy at the Patriots, especially if protecting a lead late in the game. This can kill a four-minute block, which is pivotal in going under this high of a total.

The Saints are down this season, but Pittsburgh is not an elite team. Elite teams don't lose to the Buccaneers and Jets.

Yes, New Orleans is 1-4 on the road. But three of those four losses were by a combined six points. The last time the Saints were at a cold weather site they beat the Eagles in the playoffs last season. It's not going to be a cold day either in Pittsburgh with temperatures in the 40s.

The Steelers are getting reinforced on defense with Troy Polamalu, Ryan Shazier and Ike Taylor likely to return to the lineup. Even with those players, though, the Steelers still are far from having their past dominant defenses.

Drew Brees has an underrated running attack with Mark Ingram having a career season. Brees is a top-five quarterback, who will keep the Saints in the game.

There were 62 points scored in last year's Iron Bowl with Auburn winning 34-28 and I see at least that points many being scored in today's game.

Nick Marshall is capable of playing much better than he's shown. He had a big game against Alabama last year running for 99 yards and throwing two touchdown passes. He has the necessary mobility to give Alabama's defense problems. A plus for Marshall is the Tigers could have back their leading wide receiver, D'haquille Williams.

Alabama should light up an Auburn defense that has really slipped. Alabama QB Blake Sims and star wideout Amari Cooper are playing at huge levels. The Tigers have surrendered an average of 35.8 points in their last five SEC games.

South Alabama is bowl eligible with six victories. This is the Jaguars' final regular season game and they are grasping for air playing for the seventh consecutive week. The Jaguars had to play South Carolina, a physical SEC team, last week raising their fatigue factor.

I don't see the Jaguars having the stamina and incentive to hang in against Navy's vaunted triple- option offense operated by Keenan Reynolds, who has the third-most rushing touchdowns by a quarterback in NCAA history. Reynolds had a monster game last week accounting for seven touchdowns - six rushing - in a 52-19 waltz over Georgia Southern. South Alabama ranks 76th nationally in run defense.

Navy has picked up its game going 3-1 after a three-game losing streak. The Midshipmen are fresh, too. This is just their second game this month. The Midshipmen are 8-1 ATS following a victory.

Yes, Navy has a huge look-ahead game in its annual battle versus Army. But that game has been pushed back a week until the second week of December. Navy has a bye next week so an all-out effort should be forthcoming, which the disciplined Midshipmen usually can be counted on. A victory here gives Navy six wins and all but assures the Midshipmen of going to the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego.

South Alabama plays in Mobile where three naval bases are located. So Navy is going to get a lot of crowd support. South Alabama has failed to cover in its last five home contests.

Yes, it's a high total and it's climbing higher. But I don't see stops in this game. The matchup and setting offer a perfect scenario for a monster scoring game being on a short week and inside a dome environment.

The Cowboys' pass defense has gotten worse and their ground attack hasn't been very good allowing the eighth-most rushing touchdowns. Mark Sanchez is more comfortable with each start. The Cowboys have allowed their past five opponents to complete 68.4 percent of their throws for 8.1 yard per attempt and nine touchdowns. The Eagles also have the most dangerous kick and punt returners in the league.

The Cowboys are going to do plenty of scoring against the Eagles, too. Since coming back from his back injury two games ago, Tony Romo has been sharp completing 71.7 percent of his throws with a 9.8 YPA and a 7-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Eagles have given up 24 touchdown passes, the third most in the NFL, and also have to contend with the NFL's leading rusher, DeMarco Murray.

Prop Bet

I like Cowboys tight end Jason Witten to go OVER the total on prop bets for receptions and yardage. I also believe he will score a touchdown, something he has done in three of the last four games.

The Eagles are down two linebackers, DeMeco Ryans and Emmanuel Acho. This means extensive playing time for Casey Matthews, who is terrible, and rookie Marcus Smith, who is mainly a pass rusher. Neither of these guys can cover anyone.

Titans tight end Delanie Walker caught five passes against the Eagles last week for 155 yards. Just two weeks ago, the Eagles gave up seven receptions and 126 yards to the Panthers' tight ends.

Witten isn't the dominant tight end he once was, but he still knows how to get open and remains highly reliable. The Cowboys have thrown at least six passes to Witten in each of the last four games.

Massive snow in Buffalo have forced this game to be moved to Detroit, causing Buffalo to lose its home field advantage.

The Jets are in a much better place now - both offensively and morale-wise - with Michael Vick replacing totally inept Geno Smith. Vick makes the Jets offense respectable now especially with Percy Harvin aboard. The Jets catch a break in that the Bills just lost cornerback Leodis McKelvin for the season.

The Jets outgained the Bills when they met in Week 8, but couldn't overcome Smith's quick three interceptions. The Jets are off a bye and have revenge. They aren't going to the playoffs so this division rivalry matchup in a revenge spot is close to their Super Bowl game.

Buffalo lost its playoff hope in a span of five days last week with losses to the Chiefs and Dolphins. The Bills haven't scored in their last 21 possessions and rank last in red zone touchdown efficiency. They have failed to score more than 17 points in six of their past eight games. Kyle Orton is far less of a playmaker than Orton.

The Jets rank No. 4 in run defense. The Jets' strength is their defensive front seven. 

Washington has lost 15 of its last 18 games. The Redskins are down - and they are not getting up.

The Redskins' offense is a mess because Robert Griffith III has just become a glorified checkdown machine unable to fully come back from devastating injuries and in the wrong offensive system. The 49ers still have an upper-tier defense and their pass rush has become far more dangerous with the return of Aldon Smith.

The 49ers are going to generate plenty of points versus a Washington defense that allows nearly 26 points a game and is minus its best pass rusher, Brian Orakpo, and best cornerback, DeAngelo Hall.

This also is a terrible spot for the Redskins traveling cross-country following a horrendous 20-point home loss to Tampa Bay.

Not only do the Eagles have the high-powered, quick-tempo offense to blow out the Titans, but they are in a great spot to do it.

The Eagles are off an embarrassing road loss to Green Bay. The Titans are off an emotional and well-played game and effort this past Monday at home where they nearly upset the Steelers. Now the Titans have to travel to a very hostile environment on a short week with a young team in an all-out rebuilding stage. I don't see them being able to sustain that type of effort, which is more than needed against this strong of an opponent.

The Titans have the second-worst run defense in the league and their offense isn't set up to play from behind. Rookie quarterback Zack Mettenberger has no mobility. The Eagles have 33 sacks and will be applying plenty of heat. The Titans need to stay on the ground to set up Mettenberger, but their defense is going to have problems with the Eagles' fast pace that keeps opponents from substituting.

The Eagles have forced at least one turnover in 21 of their last 22 games. They also have the best special teams in the NFL.

The Titans are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games. They have won only once during their past nine games.

Cincinnati isn't as intimidating on the road, but the Bengals still are a clear level about Houston especially with Arian Foster not looking like he's going to play.

The Texans are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games. This is Ryan Mallett's first home start. He's not going to win games on his own and he lacks mobility. The Bengals can generate pressure and have a veteran defense that has been reinforced with some key players back from injury.

Houston does not have an explosive offense. The Texans have yet to throw for 300 yards in a game. Foster is their key, but he's grounded by hamstring, groin and knee problems. The Bengals are strong on pass defense.

Andy Dalton is helped by a return to health of A.J. Green, a top-five receiver. The Texans have no one who can handle him. Jeremy Hill has provided solid ground work rushing for 361 yards the last three games, averaging 5.6 yards per carry. So Dalton isn't forced to carry the load.

First off this game is in a dome, which is going to help both offenses especially the Falcons.

This is Atlanta's first home game in five weeks. The Falcons' offense is far more dangerous when playing inside Georgia Dome. The Browns normally would have problems defending all of Atlanta's receiving weapons, but things are made a lot worse for Cleveland with its cluster injury situation. Out are defensive lineman Phil Taylor and linebackers Karlos Dansby and Jabaal Sheard.

The Browns' offense gets to go against a weak Atlanta defense that ranks last in total yards and passing yards. Cleveland's passing attack gets a huge boost with the return of Josh Gordon, who led the NFL in receiving yards last year. His presence must be accounted for and disrupts and causes adjustments for the Falcons.

The Falcons' defense has been terrible - and that's even getting lucky having missed quarterbacks ranked in the top 20 in seven of their 10 games. Instead the Falcons have been fortunate to face the inept offenses of the Buccaneers twice, Panthers and Vikings. They drew the Lions in London when Detroit was minus Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush.

UNLV ranks 113th in scoring averaging 20.3 points per game. The Rebels' game plan is going to be stay on the ground. The Rebels have to do this to protect QB Blake Decker, who is not 100 percent, or if backup Jared Lebowitz plays. Plus Hawaii has a weak run defense. So a lot of clock is going to get eaten up.

Hawaii scores even less points per game than the Rebels. They Warriors have a horrible passing attack. Their quarterback, Ikaika Woolsey, completes less than 50 percent of his throws. So the Warriors are going to be staying on the ground, too.

Yes, these defenses are bad. But both team's offenses are really struggling. As bad as the defenses are, the offenses are worse.

Both team's offenses are coming on and Tennessee has to deal with a pair of defensive suspensions leaving its defense vulnerable.

Missouri's passing attack is aided by the return of Darius White. He caught six passes for 55 yards and a touchdown last week in a victory against Texas A&M. The Tigers, with a balanced attack, piled up nearly 600 yards of offense.

Tennessee's offense has turned around, too. The Vols are averaging 47.5 points in their last two games.

Both defenses have outstanding pass rushers. Arizona's Scooby Wright leads the Pac-12 in tackles and has 12 sacks, third-most in the conference.

Utah's offense hasn't been the same since losing leading receiver and dangerous playmaker Dres Anderson to a season-ending knee injury Oct. 25. The Utes rank last in the Pac-12 in yards per game.

The Utes do it with defense. They have the most sacks in the country. Nate Orchard has 16 1/2 sacks. Utah's fierce pass rush is huge against Arizona QB Anu Solomon, who becomes erratic when up against a tough pass rush.

Utah also has an outstanding punter in Tom Hackett. He leads the nation in punts inside the 10-yard line. 

The Titans get a rare home chance on the national stage tonight, but they are not good enough to keep this matchup close.

The Steelers are off an embarrassing flat spot against the Jets. Don't look for the Steelers to be down a second straight week.

Ben Roethlisberger has been red-hot and he should get good infantry support for the first time in three games as the Titans rank 29th versus the run.

Ken Whisenhunt has made no bones about the Titans being in a rebuilding year. He's switched to sixth-round rookie Zach Mettenberger at quarterback. The Steelers have some defensive injuries, but Mettenberger isn't ready yet to be an effective NFL starting quarterback. He's hurt by not having a lick of mobility and holding the ball too long.

Mettenberger isn't likely to have injured tight end and security blanket Delanie Walker, who leads the Titans in receiving yards and touchdowns. Under wily defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau, the Steelers are 18-2 facing rookie quarterbacks.

The Titans have a terrible track record covering just two of their last 14 games. They have lost eight of their last 10 home games and are 1-9-2 ATS in their last 12 home matchups.

The Chiefs are similar to the Seahawks in that they are run-oriented and play good defense. They just aren't as good as Seattle and Alex Smith isn't nearly as good as Russell Wilson.

The Seahawks' offense has picked up with the return to health of left tackle Russell Okung and center Max Unger. It wasn't a fluke the Seahawks rushed for 350 yards against the Giants last week with those two stud offensive linemen back in the lineup.

The Seahawks run the ball well and stop the run. They lead the league in yards per carry and are tied for first in giving up the fewest yards per rush. The Chiefs rank 30th in giving up yards per run. The strength of their defense is edge pass rushers Justin Houston and Tamba Hali.

Because of Wilson, the Chiefs can't stack the line either keying just on Marshawn Lynch. Seattle can stack the box against Jamaal Charles, though, because the Chiefs have no downfield passing game.

Alex Smith has the lowest yards per throw of any quarterback during the past five years. He has yet to connect with a wide receiver for a touchdown this season.

The Chiefs are not well rounded enough to defeat the defending Super Bowl champions.

Now that the line has come down under a field goal I'm going to get involved with the Bears.

There is tremendous urgency for Chicago in this matchup. The Bears' season is at stake and possibly the future of Marc Trestman and Jay Cutler remaining in Chicago.

I expect the Bears to play with a great deal of urgency and passion after being embarrassed in their last two games. Those blowout losses, though, came to the Packers and Patriots.

The Vikings' offense is light years behind those elite offenses. Minnesota's defense has improved under defensive guru Mike Zimmer. But the Vikings still are vulnerable in the secondary and their offense doesn't scare anyone with rookie Teddy Bridgewater a work in progress. Expect a big game from Jared Allen, an ex-Viking who will be going against his former practice partner tackle Matt Kalil.

Cutler and the Bears are better than they have shown. Cutler has the weapons to put up a lot of points against Minnesota. The Vikings haven't won at Soldier Field in seven years.

What we have here is just two horrible defenses facing two offenses that should start playing a lot better.

The Buccaneers rank 31st in points allowed giving up 30.2 per game. They also are 31st in pass defense and 29th in yards surrendered per game.

Washington was idle last week. That's huge because it gives Robert Griffin III more time to heal and get in sync with Jay Gruden's offense. Look for the Redskins to add a few wrinkles, too, with the extra preparation time.

Griffin has plenty of weapons. He has a solid running back in Alfred Morris, two good pass catching tight ends and excellent wideouts DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon, who are among the best at gaining yards after the catch. Tampa Bay has given up 19 touchdown passes.

The Buccaneers have gone back to veteran Josh McCown at quarterback. Their running attack is better without Doug Martin. Mike Evans has emerged as perhaps the best rookie wide receiver in the NFL. Vincent Jackson still is good. The Bucs' offensive line is beginning to improve, too.

The Redskins rank 23rd in scoring defense allowing 25.4 points per game. They are without their best pass rusher, Brian Orapko, and best cover back, DeAngelo Hall.

Two young quarterbacks are getting their opportunity here. They are going against terrible defenses and should have nothing to lose.

South Florida ranks 88th in points allowed at 29.3. The Bulls are 83rd in yards allowed at 429.9. Matt Davis gets his second start at QB for SMU. He set a school record for rushing yards in his debut rushing for 181 and scoring two touchdowns against Tulsa. Davis passed for another 212 yards.

The Mustangs scored a season-high 28 points behind Davis, who upgrades SMU's offense quite a bit.

South Florida is off a bye and has two weeks to prepare freshman Quinton Flowers for his quarterback start. Flowers has limited experience, but sources say he is greatly improved from the start of camp. 

Flowers is going against one of the worst defenses in the country as the Mustangs rank 128th in points allowed per game at 46.8 and yards per game at 547. 

Stanford has had a down season. But the Cardinal won't lack motivation. This is their final home game. They need a victory to become bowl eligible and it's a huge revenge spot.

The Cardinal was idle last week after getting pounded on the road by Oregon. The prideful Cardinal are 10-0 under David Shaw after a loss. They haven't lost two in a row since 2009.

Utah has dropped out of contention in the South Division of the Pac-12 following losses to Arizona State and Oregon, which was particularly tough to take. The Utes also lost quarterback Kendal Thompson for the season.

That means erratic Tyler Wilson is back under center. Wilson's receiving corps is down due to injuries. The biggest loss is not having big-play man Dres Anderson. The Utes are going to need to run the ball, which is a tough order against a stout Stanford front seven. Stanford ranks fifth in the nation in fewest yards allowed per game and has the 11th best run defense in the country.

Joshua Dobbs has gotten Tennessee back on track. The multi-purpose quarterback passed for 300 yards and rushed for 100 yards in leading the Volunteers past South Carolina, 42-28, in their last game.

Prior to that, Dobbs put a scare into Alabama after getting untracked during the final three quarters. Kentucky's defense is worn down from playing eight straight weeks. The Wildcats are surrendering 42.2 points per game during their last four games. 

The Wildcats can put up their share of points, though, behind quarterback Patrick Towles, who has thrown for 2,374 yards and 14 touchdowns.

Memphis leads the American Athletic Conference in offense averaging 33.8 points per game. Tigers quarterback Paxton Lynch has the best passer rating in the league. He's accounted for 18 touchdowns. Lynch is just the third Memphis quarterback in history to pass for 2,000 yards in multiple seasons.

Tulane yields nearly 30 points per game.

The Green Wave offense is back on track putting up 31 against Houston last week. Quarterback Tanner Lee and running back Sherman Badies and multi-purpose Dontrell Hilliard provide the Green Wave with enough offense to help push this total over. Tulane has a lot more confidence offensively now after upsetting Houston.

Neither team has the defense to stop the other team's offense. I see no problem for Ball State and Massachusetts to each score at least 30 points.

Ball State has gone over the total in seven of its last nine Mid-American Conference games. The Cardinals are giving up an average of 32.3 points during their last six games. Their secondary is extremely banged-up, especially after losing their top cornerback, Eric Patterson, last week. The Cardinals are forced to rotate three young cornerbacks.

This sets up a nightmare matchup for the Cardinals facing UMass quarterback Blake Frohnapfel, a transfer from Marshall who has thrived under quarterback guru Mark Whipple's pro-style offense. Frohnapfel not only has a strong arm, but touch to go with it. He has probably the best receiver in the MAC to throw to in Tajae Sharpe.

Whipple has turned around UMass. The Minutemen faced a brutal non-league slate playing teams from the ACC, Pac-12, SEC and Big Ten in their first four games. Since then they've played five MAC schools and Frohnapfel has averaged 408 yards passing per game with a 17-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He's thrown for 55.3 yards per game more than any other quarterback in the MAC on the season. Sharpe and Jean Sifrin provide Frohnapfel with a pair of tall, dangerous targets. They should light up Ball State's vulnerable secondary especially having an 18-day layoff to rest and prepare.

The Minutemen, though, can't stop anybody on defense. They rank 108th in both points allowed giving up 35 per game and yards allowed permitting 458.3 per contest. UMass is surrendering more than 200 yards per game on the ground.

Ball State lost a lot of its firepower from last season, but still has an excellent running back in Jahwan Edwards. He's rushed for 48 touchdowns in his career and has accounted for more than 1,100 yards rushing and receiving this year.

The game is being played in Foxboro, home of the Patriots where the weather can get tricky. But the forecast is for temperatures in the 40s with no rain and little wind.

OK, the Panthers aren't the defensive team they were a year ago.

But they aren't a touchdown worse than the Eagles especially with Philadelphia losing its leader on defense, linebacker DeMeco Ryans.

Chip Kelly's fast-break offense gets the publicity. This doesn't tell the whole picture, though. The Eagles' defense wasn't very good even with Ryans giving up 400 or more yards in four of their last six games.

The Eagles also don't take care of the ball very well either committing 21 turnovers. They are down to second-string quarterback Mark Sanchez, who never has shown a tendency to be careful with the ball either. This is Sanchez's first start in two years so there could be some rust. He has just five more touchdowns than interceptions in his career.

Carolina's offense should pick up against this opponent especially getting back some of their injured starting offensive linemen. Carolina is expected to have back offensive linemen Byron Bell, Amini Silatolu and Trai Turner.

The Panthers are on extra rest having played 11 days ago. They are eager to atone for their disappointing season with a strong performance on the national stage. They also have been given second life in the weak NFC South with the Saints getting upset at home this past Sunday by the 49ers. 

The Eagles have failed to cover eight of the last 10 times when hosting an opponent with a losing road record.