The Colts couldn't win a shootout last year against Ben Roethlisberger losing 51-34 at Pittsburgh. That was with Andrew Luck. I don't see the Colts keeping up with Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh's high-scoring offense this year with Matt Hasselbeck and a having a worse team than from a year ago.
Hasselbeck is 4-0 replacing Luck. Kudos to him. But there's a due factor - and the clock is ticking. I see it stopping in this matchup. The Colts dominate their weak AFC South Division brothers. Out of division, though, they have problems. 
Roethlisberger has led the Steelers to three consecutive games of scoring at least 30 points. The Colts don't have the quarterback to keep up, nor the defense to slow down the Steelers especially minus underrated injured linebacker Jerrell Freeman. 
Pittsburgh ranks fourth in total yards despite not having Roethlisberger for four games and is seventh in run defense. They have too much balance for the Colts, who rank 22nd in yards and 26th in yards given up. 

Denver is in a prime letdown spot traveling to sunny San Diego after upsetting New England at home in a prime time Sunday night victory at home in frigid conditions. The Broncos won in overtime exerting a lot of energy in coming back from two touchdowns down in the final quarter.
The Broncos could be down three starters on defense on top of already being thin in the offensive line. The Broncos are led by Brock Osweiler, who has done a nice job since replacing Peyton Manning. But the Broncos are not a downfield, attacking type team. They are run-oriented and short-passing with Osweiler, not built to cover mid-size spreads against division foes on the road especially in a flat spot like this.
This has been a lost year for the Chargers. But they did get a large part of their confidence back by winning on the road last week. Philip Rivers is having another brilliant campaign. He makes the Chargers live to beat any foe. The Chargers have come close against the Bengals losing by five points, hung tough against the Packers having a chance to force overtime at the Green Bay three-yard line before running out of downs late in the game and losing at the gun at Baltimore. 
The Chargers are getting healthier, especially at linebacker. Rivers' savvy covers up their offensive line injuries and Melvin Gordon ran better last week. 

It's not that I'm in love with Miami. This handicap is far more of a fade on Baltimore. The Ravens are decimated without their quarterback, top running back, top wide receiver, top pass rusher and perhaps three starting offensive linemen. All together, the Ravens have lost a staggering 17 players for the season.
Yet the Ravens pulled off an improbable road win on Monday night against division rival Cleveland. It's one of the few times the Ravens get to celebrate this season. It also puts them in a terrible situation to go back on the road on a short week to face a frustrated Dolphins team that is much healthier than the Ravens. 
The Dolphins have been disappointing much of the season. But they are 3-4 under interim coach Dan Campbell compared to 1-3 under disposed coach Joe Philbin. Campbell isn't going to outsmart many opposing head coaches, but the Dolphins have been more physical under him and usually have been at their best in a bullying role.
That's the spot here as the Ravens are the Ravens in name only. Injuries have reduced their talent level to bottom of the barrel. Matt Schaub has a 12-to-18 touchdown-to-interception ratio since 2013. He has become the king of Pick-Sixes throwing five of them during this span. 
A switch in offensive coordinators should help the Dolphins revitalize their ground attack, which would make Ryan Tannehill more effective. 

I like the two young quarterbacks on these teams a lot. 
Blake Bortles makes things happen - be it with touchdown throws or interceptions. He's anything but a game manager. That's the kind of quarterback I like when going over a total. 
Any total posted below 44 points in  today's pass-happy, rules-favoring-offense NFL is a sweat for going below. 
Sparked by Bortles, the Jaguars are averaging 24.8 points in their last seven games. Their defense remains bad, though, particularly against the pass. That's why the Jaguars surrender 27.2 points per contest, fourth-highest in the league. 
Marcus Mariota is a dual-threat quarterback who was held back by former Titan coach Ken Whisenhunt. New coach Mike Malarkey is astute enough to give Mariota the green light to run. I expect him to exploit a weak Jacksonville defense. 

The Cardinals have revenge for a frustrating 24-22 loss to the Rams in Week 4 when they had to settle for four field goals in four touchdown-less red zone trips. 
Arizona still is playing at an elite level, while the wheels have come off for the Rams. They've lost four in a row and there's talk Jeff Fisher could be out as coach. 
Carson Palmer ranks among the top three in passer rating, touchdown throws and yards passing. The Cardinals have won in 22 of his last 26 starts. He has a full complement of receivers now, too, with Michael Floyd and John Brown healthy.
The Rams have the worst passing attack. Neither Nick Foles nor Case Keenum, who is likely to be back under center, is NFL-starter quality. The Rams try to compensate with running back Todd Gurley. But with a decimated offensive line and defenses keying on him, Gurley has been held to an average of less than 44 yards rushing per game and 2.8 yards per carry during his last three games. Arizona has a top five run defense.
St. Louis' defense is getting worn down from having to carry such a weak offense. A strong pass rush has been their calling card. However, the Rams have managed just four sacks in their last four games. 
The Rams have one of the weaker home fields in the league due to rumors of their moving and their poor record. 
This game sets up well for the Cardinals and the line figures to keep growing. So my advice is to lock in now. 

Early money has been on North Carolina shrinking the line in this ACC title matchup. I believe that money is wrong. Clemson is the better team on both sides of the ball and is experienced in huge games, something the Tar Heels are not. This is North Carolina's first ACC championship game. 
Clemson took advantage of the Tar Heels' lack of defense last year winning, 50-35, at home. Deshaun Watson accounted for seven touchdowns in that game and the Tigers rolled up 528 yards. True, North Carolina is much improved defensively from last season. But the gap still is larger than this spread.
North Carolina has won 11 in a row. Impressive, but its schedule wasn't that difficult. Two victories came against FCS opponents. The Tar Heels and Tigers did meet five common foes. Clemson allowed an average of 150 yards less per game than North Carolina did against those foes and nearly 11 fewer first downs per game than North Carolina did against those opponents. 
The Tar Heels can't match Clemson's big game pedigree either. Clemson upset Ohio State in the Orange Bowl two seasons ago and buried Oklahoma, 40-6, in its bowl game last season. North Carolina played in lesser bowl games the previous two seasons. 
I respect North Carolina's skill position players, but I like Watson better than any other college quarterback and I want him going for me in this game. Watson was the only player to pass for at least 3,000 yards and rushed for 756 yards. He also completed 70.4 percent of his throws, third-best in the nation. 
The Tar Heels have failed to cover nine of the past 14 times as an underdog under Larry Fedora. 

Look for defense, not offense, to dominate in the inaugural American Athletic Conference title game between Temple and Houston just like it has during the previous two meetings between these teams.
Houston hosted Temple last season and won, 31-10. The Cougars also defeated the Owls, 22-13, on the road in 2013. 
Both teams are just as strong, if not stronger, defensively this season. Temple gives up less than 19 points per game. Only 15 teams surrender fewer points. The Owls also rank 17th in total defense sparked by senior linebacker Tyler Matakevich. They haven't allowed a touchdown during their last two games. 
The Cougars rank 22nd in scoring defense holding opponents to 21.1 points per contest. They are among the leaders in creating turnovers and also have the No. 12 run defense in the nation, huge because the Owls heavily rely on their star running back Jahad Thomas. He rushed for 49 yards against the Cougars last season. 

Houston likes to run, too, behind dual threat quarterback Greg Ward Jr. The Owls will be prepared for him. Temple has held six of its last nine opponents to less than 17 points. 
The combination of two strong defenses and a lot of running ball - which eats clock - sets up this strong under play. 

Detroit is going to get its points. So is Green Bay. 
The Packers scored 30 points at Minnesota the last time their backs were to the wall. That was against a much stronger defense.  
Green Bay's offense has underachieved after leading the NFL in scoring last year at more than 30 points a game. But the Packers still are in the top 12 averaging just under 24 points a game. 
Aaron Rodgers has a strong history against the Lions with a 24-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last 13 games versus them. Eddie Lacy is running better and Green Bay's offensive line is one of the best in the league. The Packers were caught by surprise by the Lions playing press coverage during the first meeting. They won't be if the Lions try that again. 
Since that game the Lions lost veteran nickel back Josh Wilson and may be without free safety Glover Quin, who is the quarterback of Detroit's secondary and probably their third best defensive player in back of pass rusher Ezekiel Ansah and linebacker DeAndre Levy, who is out for the season. Quin suffered an ankle injury in the Lions' blowout win against the Eagles last Thursday. 
The Lions would lose a lot if Quin can't play. He would be replaced by James Ihedigbo, who is a veteran but lacks speed. He was burned by Jordan Matthews on a 24-yard touchdown catch after replacing Quin. 
Green Bay's receiving corps has been disappointing obviously missing Jordy Nelson. But Randall Cobb would rate a huge edge against rookie Quandre Diggs in the slot. Davonte Adams, James Jones and No. 4 wide receiver, underrated and now healthy Jared Abbrederis, would rate edges against starting cornerbacks Darius Slay and Nevin Lawson along with No. 4 defensive back Crezdon Butler thanks to Rodgers.
There shouldn't be any missed field goals either. Mason Crosby and Matt Prater are a combined 33-for-35 in field goals and will be kicking in a dome. 

Both offenses are going to treat this matchup with a very conservative approach. New England has to because of a cluster injury problem it has at wide receiver and on the offensive line. The Broncos have to because of the inexperience of Brock Osweiler, making just his second NFL start.
There also is bad weather to take into account. The forecast in Denver for this Sunday night matchup is for 15 degrees with the possibility of snow at around 60 percent. It's going to be frigid conditions not suitable for a lot of passing. 
The Patriots are minus tailback Dion Lewis and wide receivers Julian Edelman and Aaron Dobson. If Danny Amendola doesn't play, the Patriots won't have a wide receiver with more than 17 catches on the season. I'm expecting a heavy dose of LeGarrette Blount running and eating clock for the Patriots.
The Broncos give up the fewest yards in the league. They have the top pass defense and have the most sacks with 34. 
The Patriots' defense has been underrated this season. Belichick should easily win a chess matchup against Osweiler, who attempted just three passes of more than 10 yards last week, none of which were completed. The Broncos could be missing their No. 2 wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders, who hasn't caught a pass during the last two games. 

The Bengals are anxious to return to their winning ways after losing the past two weeks in nationally televised losses to the Texans and Cardinals. Cincinnati is very tough at home where they have covered 17 of their past 22 games.
Cincinnati doesn't have a major weakness and is one of the healthiest teams in the league. The Rams' strength is their defense and running back Todd Gurley. 
The Bengals have a balanced attack and a defense that allows 18.6 points per game, fourth-lowest in the NFL. I see the Bengals trumping the Rams on both sides of the ball. 
St. Louis' offensive line is decimated down three starters. Left tackle Greg Robinson has looked terrible. The Rams quarterback situation of Case Keenum and Nick Foles could be the weakest in the league and can't take advantage of the Bengals loading the box to stop Gurley. 
The Rams have scored fewer than 20 points in 60 percent of their games. They are averaging 14.6 points in their last three games. Their passing attack ranks last.
This also has been a very distracting week for the St. Louis players with its teammate, Steadman Bailey, getting shot. So focus could be an issue, too. The Rams can't hang close unless they produce an "A" effort. I don't see that happening based on matchups and situation. 

The Giants have dominated this series winning and covering the past five times, including 32-21 in Week 3. New York has won four of the past five games by double-digits. 
New York is off a bye, while the Redskins were pounded, 44-16, by the physical Panthers last Sunday. 
Eli Manning is on pace to throw 34 touchdown passes. The Redskins are thin at cornerback and rank 30th in run defense. They haven't been good running the ball either ranking 25th. 
Washington is a ground-and-pound team. Kirk Cousins commits too many turnovers for the Redskins to be anything but ground-and-pound. However, their rushing attack has sputtered as only once during the last six games has their leading rusher broken the 30-yard barrier.
The Giants also have their best pass rusher back, Jason Pierre-Paul. He drew constant double-teams from the Patriots two weeks ago. The Giants came close to dealing the Patriots their first defeat falling 27-26 on a field goal at the end of the game. The Redskins played the Patriots three weeks ago and were never in the game during a 27-10 loss. 

The Bills are a gritty team whose defense has improved as the season winds down with the players becoming more familiar with Rex Ryan's schemes. 
Buffalo just held the Patriots, with their second-rated offense, to a season-low 20 points. 
Kansas City is getting a lot of love, though, in this matchup because it has won and covered four in a row. Kudos to Andy Reid for keeping the Chiefs together after a tough early-season, but his team isn't that good.
The Chiefs hit a lucky patch during their win streak. First they beat the Steelers when Pittsburgh had to use Landry Jones at quarterback. Jones is one of the worst backups in the league. The Chiefs then caught the Lions in London when Detroit was still in disarray and had just made a switch in offensive coordinators. 
Kansas City then drew the Broncos when Peyton Manning was playing hurt and at his most ineffective. After that win was a victory last week against a messed-up, injury-racked Chargers squad that was at their lowest ebb. 
The Chiefs rank well below average in passing, which is no surprise with Alex Smith at center. Smith can win given weapons, but he's not going to pile on points. Because of their passing limitations, the Chiefs heavily rely on their tailback. That tailback could be third-stringer Spencer Ware. So Smith doesn't have outstanding weapons.

Houston's defense is playing extremely well giving up just two touchdowns during the last 14 quarters. J.J. Watt is having another MVP-type season with 11 1/2 sacks, including 7 1/2 sacks in his last four games.
The Texans are No. 1 in the NFL in third down defense and rank fifth in fewest passing yards allowed. Drew Brees is 36 and while still good, no longer is an elite quarterback. 
The Texans' defense playing well has coincided with Houston's offense reducing its tempo. The Texans are going at a much slower pace than they did earlier in the season. This makes sense because the Texans do no have a dynamic offense. They are going to look play ball control with their various mediocre running backs playing for field position and to run clock to keep the ball away from Brees.
The Saints were idle last week. There was a significant decision that happened during the Saints' bye week and that was defensive coordinator Rob Ryan getting fired replaced by former Raiders head coach Dennis Allen. Ryan has been out of touch with today's passing attacks for a long time. The Saints are on a record pace to give up the most touchdown passes in a season. Too many times New Orleans defensive players were out of position. Ryan's firing should have happened much earlier. 
I see the Saints defense being much improved under Allen, who built a strong reputation when he was the defensive coordinator of the Broncos. New Orleans' defensive talent is better than its statistics indicate. 
The combination of Houston's hot defense, conservative offense and expected huge improvement from the Saints defense puts me on the under. 

So why back a San Diego team that is 2-8 and has lost six in a row as a monster 50-Dime play? A combination of Philip Rivers, a due factor and the Jaguars being overpriced.
Jacksonville doesn't beat teams. Opponents lose to them. There's a difference. San Diego is approaching this matchup as a challenge and a test of character. Non-division foes usually treat the Jaguars with overconfidence.
Yes, the Jaguars are better than last season. Their defense is more competitive and Blake Bortles has improved in his second season. But the Jaguars still are not very good. They've gone six consecutive games with at least one turnover. Bortles is always live for a pick-six and has been sacked more than any other quarterback during the last two seasons. The Chargers' pass rush has gotten better recording 18 sacks during their last seven games. 
Rivers makes the Chargers competitive. He's having another super season throwing for the second-most yards in the league while leading the NFL in completions and throwing for 19 touchdowns. 
San Diego was blown out by the Chiefs in their last game. People remember that. Maybe they should also recall the Chargers losing to the then unbeaten Bengals by five points, nearly forcing overtime against the Packers when they were stopped at the 3-yard line on fourth down and goal at the end of the game and falling to Baltimore on the last play of the game. All of those games were on the road.
When it comes to coaching, I like Mike McCoy much better than Gus Bradley. McCoy is innovative and tough on non-division foes not familiar with him. Bradley is too conservative, one of those many coaches who plays not to lose rather than win. 

Michigan State didn't do Michigan any favors beating Ohio State last week ending the Buckeyes' 23-game winning streak. The Buckeyes are going to be super focused now and ready for this game and not just because of the long-time intense rivalry. Ohio State has proven itself on the road covering 71 percent of its last 56 road games. 
Jim Harbaugh has been everything Michigan could have hoped for this season restoring the Wolverines back into elite status. But Michigan isn't in Ohio State's class yet. 
The Buckeyes have won 10 of the last 11 in the series. Urban Meyer won't hold a coaching edge like he has on past Michigan coaches, but he does still have a talent advantage.
Ezekiel Elliott is going to get the ball a lot. He didn't show a lot of class after the Buckeyes fell to the Spartans, but he's one of the best running backs in the country. Elliott has rushed for 3,336 yards the past two seasons and scored 35 touchdowns. Michigan couldn't stop Indiana on the ground two weeks ago as Jordan Howard ran for 238 yards and two touchdowns on 35 carries.. Ohio State has a better ground attack than the Hooisers. The Wolverines aren't going to be able to control Elliott, who will set things up for J.T. Barrett. 
 I'm not a huge fan of Michigan quarterback Jake Rudock, even though he has played well lately. He's not good enough to carry the Wolverines if they don't establish at least a semblance of a ground attack, which I don't see them doing. The Buckeyes have an extremely physical line. De'Veon Smith is the Wolverines' starting running back, but he's a grinder not suited to attack a physical defense. 

The Buckeyes rank 30th in run defense and fifth in pass defense. Only two players in the country have more career sacks than Ohio State's Joey Bosa, who has 25. 

Sometimes the best handicap formula is just the most obvious. Carolina is better than Dallas and it's not even close. 
I understand timing is very important in NFL games. It's not always who you play, but when you play. 
The Cowboys are 3-0 when Tony Romo has been under center. He'll be playing Thursday and shouldn't have any rust after returning last Sunday after missing seven games. The Cowboys are home and in a desperate spot being 3-7. 
I would be surprised if Dallas didn't put forth a full, focused effort and played a good game. I'm expecting that. But it's not going to be enough to beat Carolina. 
It's not just happenstance that the Panthers are 14-1 in their last 15 games. They have a tremendous defense, much superior's to Dallas. Carolina ranks in the top eight in all of the most important defensive categories, including rating in the top five in allowing the fewest yards and points per game. Linebacker Luke Kuechly and cornerback Josh Norman are two of the best defensive players in the league. 
The Panthers have outgained their opponent in 15 of their last 17 games. It's impossible to predict turnovers, but the Panthers are No. 1 in takeaways/giveaways at plus 13. Dallas is second-to-last with a minus nine turnover ratio.
Thanks to Cam Newton's MVP-candidate type season, the Panthers are the third highest scoring team in the NFL at 29.9 points per game. Newton has accounted for 38 touchdowns in his last 15 games. Jonathan Stewart is a much better running back than recycled Darren McFadden. The Panthers received some good news this week in that left guard Andrew Norwell will be back after missing the last three games. He could be the Panthers' first or second-best offensive lineman. 

Aside from the Patriots, the Bengals shouldn't be more than a field goal underdog to any team. The Bengals will be especially fired up to redeem themselves after being upset on Monday night at home by Houston.
This play isn't against the Cardinals. I like Bruce Arians a lot. The Cardinals are normally a play-on team - just not in this matchup at this price.
Arizona isn't helped being banged up in the offensive line and at wide receiver with Michael Floyd and John Brown each questionable. 
The Cardinals have been fortunate to play an easy schedule. Five of their victories have been against foes whose offenses are near the bottom of the statistical rankings. 
The Bengals are solid up and down. They don't have a serious weakness and own a 7-1-1 ATS mark. Andy Dalton is having his finest season backed by weapons at wide receiver, running back and tight end with Tyler Eifert, who has nine touchdowns in the red zone this season. 

No, the 49ers can't stay within two touchdowns of Seattle. Not with Blaine Gabbert and not down to street free agents at running back. 
Seattle has been dominant at CenturyLink Field and dominant versus San Francisco.
The Seahawks are 15-3 in their last 18 home games with 11 of those victories coming by double-digits. They are 8-0-1 ATS the past nine times playing the 49ers. The 49ers haven't been able to break the 20-point barrier during any of their last nine meetings against the Seahawks, averaging a puny 10.8 points per game during this span. 
San Francisco has been held to 13 points combined during its last three games against Seattle. The Seahawks beat the 49ers, 20-3, in Week 7 outgaining the 49ers, 388-142. That was the 49ers' lowest yardage total in nine years. 
Gabbert is a downgrade on Colin Kaepernick, who was the quarterback in the first meeting. Gabbert lacks pocket presence and doesn't have anywhere near the mobility Kaepernick possess.
Seattle's offensive line finally has shown signs of coming around. The Seahawks are enduring a frustrating season. Look for them to take out their frustrations at home on a hapless foe.
The 49ers have gone from one of the better coaching staffs to one of the most overmatched. There is no love lost between these two division rivals. Pete Carroll won't be shy about sticking it to the 49ers. 

Two straight losses and all of a sudden the Broncos are in the pick range with the Bears? No, no way.
Denver has a vastly superior defense that regains suspended Aqib Talib. The Bears are going to be without Eddie Royal again and possibly Alshon Jeffery and Matt Forte. 
Look for Denver's offense to pick up with Peyton Manning out of the starting lineup. Brock Osweiler is an upgrade. Manning had thrown the most interceptions in the NFL with an embarrassing 9-to-17 touchdown-to-interception ratio. If he was any other quarterback he would have been benched long ago. 
The Broncos play the unbeaten Patriots next week. If they lose to the Bears they would seriously be looking at a four-game losing streak. That's another reason why the Broncos will be going all out here. 

The Raiders have a top-nine offense in both yards and points per game average. Derek Carr has emerged as a star with a 21-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. No quarterback has thrown more touchdown passes outside the red zone than Carr. 
Carr can take advantage of a weak Lions defense that gives up 29 points per game, second-highest in the NFL, and is depleted in the secondary. 
Playing inside a dome on artificial turf makes Amari Cooper and Latavius Murray faster and more dangerous for Oakland.
The Lions' offense has shown more signs of life under new offensive coordinator Joe Bob Cooter. The Raiders give up the third-most yards per game and rank 27th in pass defense. Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson are still a very strong hookup. 
The Raiders' pass rush is going to be down with Aldon Smith getting suspended by the league this week. 

Not only are the Texans on a short week in an emotionally distracting week following their Monday road upset win against the Bengals, but backup T.J. Yates is their quarterback for this game.
Brian Hoyer is near the bottom among starting quarterbacks. But Yates is far worse. He's a game-managing, dump-off passer who won't have his former security blanket, Arian Foster.
This is a circle-the-wagon game for the Jets, who have lost three of their last four. They have the better skill position players and the superior defense.
The Jets have had extra time to rest and prepare having last played a week ago from Thursday. That's allowed Nick Mangold and a beaten-up secondary to recover along with Ryan Fitzpatrick, who formerly played for the Texans. 

SMU always is worth a strong look when the total is under 60. The Mustangs score nearly 30 points a game while surrendering nearly 47 points per game. They rank 128th in points allowed and 122nd in yards given up. The over has cashed in six of SMU's last eight games. 
Tulane has a good quarterback in Tanner Lee. So does SMU with Matt Davis, who is a dual threat. The Green Wave, though, are giving up an average of more than 34 points a game.

Both of these schools are under teams when it comes to SEC play combining to go below the total in 17 of their last 20 league matchups. 
They also have a history of low-scoring games against each other since Bret Bielema came to Arkansas. Two years ago in Bielema's first season with the Razorbacks there were 41 points combined. Last year, there were 27 combined points.
Arkansas' scoring numbers are skewed and misleading because the Razorbacks have played six overtime periods this season. 

Colorado State has covered 11 of its last 16 away contests and draws the Lobos after their monster 31-24 road upset win against Boise State last week. The Lobos were the toast of the underdog world winning straight-up as 31-point underdogs.
So all week the Lobos have heard about how great they are. That was their first win ever against Boise State. New Mexico happens to be 1-4 ATS following a victory. The Lobos were outgained by the Broncos by 225 yards, but were able to come away with four takeaways. 
On the season, New Mexico has a negative yardage differential while Colorado State is on the plus ledger. This is a case of the oddsmaker getting it right with the better team laying points on the road. The Rams are made stronger by the Lobos in a letdown spot, too. 

Both of these offenses are under the radar. 
The Jaguars are averaging 26 points during their last five games. Blake Bortles has become a playmaker in his second season. Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns each rank among the top 17 in receiving yards, the only receiving tandem in the NFL to rank that high. Hurns has scored a touchdown in each of his last seven games and is expected to play. 
The Titans lost their nose tackle, Al Woods, to a high ankle sprain this past Sunday. They also could be down their three top cornerbacks. Jason McCourty definitely is out perhaps for the season. Perrish Cox (hamstring) and Blidi Wreh-Wilson (hamstring) are questionable. They could be limited if they play. 
Tennessee's offense is coming around now that Marcus Mariota is healthy and Mike Mularkey is the head coach. He won't hold Mariota back or keep him from running like conservative Ken Whisenhunt did. Quietly, Delaine Walker has emerged as a top-10 tight end. The Titans' ground game has improved, too, with Bishop Sankey getting far less carries. 
The Jaguars' run defense is down a notch after losing tackle Sen'Derrick Marks to a torn right triceps this past Sunday. Only two teams give up more points per game than Jacksonville, which surrenders 28.3 per game. 
Both offenses won't be holding anything back with the chance of showing themselves off on a rare nationally televised game. 

There is a chance of rain for this game, but very little wind. 

The Seahawks haven't lost a game coming off a bye since 2012. I don't see them losing at home either in this matchup. Seattle is 4-4. Arizona is 6-2. Obviously this is a must-win spot for Seattle. 
The Cardinals haven't faced a defense of this caliber on the road all season. Their offense is good, but not as powerful as the statistics show. Arizona has won five of its six games against defenses that are ranked among the bottom nine - Saints, Browns, 49ers, Lions and Ravens. 
The one really good defense the Cardinals went against was the Rams - and that was at home. The Cardinals still lost that game. Seattle's defense is picking up steam. Look for the "Legion of Boom" to be in full force. 
The bye week came at a good time for Seattle, which was in need of regrouping. Their offensive line should perform better with left tackle Russell Okung expected back. Then there is the Seahawks' dominant home field advantage. During the last four years, the Seahawks are 28-3 at CenturyLink Field, 20-10-1 ATS. 

The good news for the Cowboys is they finally get back Tony Romo next week.
The bad news is the Cowboys are 0-6 since Romo broke his collarbone. If they don't beat the Buccaneers then Romo's presence isn't going to mean anything.
This is a must game for Dallas - and I see the Cowboys getting a victory against this lowly opponent that doesn't know how to close out foes.
Tampa Bay also has been an abject failure at home going 1-12 in its last 13 games at Raymond James Stadium, 3-10 ATS. In games decided by six or fewer points under Lovie Smith, the Bucs are 2-9. 
Matt Cassel has gotten better each week he's been Dallas' starting quarterback. The Cowboys have come close in their last two games falling by one point to the Seahawks and in overtime to the Eagles. 
The Cowboys are short 'dogs. They are 9-3 ATS the past 12 times when getting points. The Buccaneers are a step down in class for the Cowboys. 

I can't see Ben Roethlisberger playing in this game. That puts the Steelers in peril for this heated, division rivalry game because the Browns, while not talented, can be ornery. They have an excellent track record as underdogs, too, 10-5-1 ATS since Mike Pettine became coach in 2014. 
Subtract Roethlisberger and Le'Veon Bell. Sub in Landry Jones, one of the weakest backup quarterbacks in the league, and the Steelers' offense loses their potency. The oddsmaker realizes this. That's why this is one of the lowest totals on the board. So taking more than four points is huge. 
The Browns have had 10 days between games having played in last Thursday's game. That's given them enough time to get Josh McCown back along with wide receivers Brian Hartline and Andrew Hawkins and several defensive backs from their battered secondary. 
Cleveland is not going to the playoffs. So the Browns have few chances to get up for games. This is one of those times against a hated division foe that has kicked them when they were down. With their bye coming up next week, I expect the Browns to hold nothing back. McCown has played surprising well for them. He holds a quarterback edge on Jones.  I'm fine if McCown doesn't play and Johnny Manziel does since he's practiced with the first-unit all week and has shown improvement. He brings a running dimension that McCown doesn't.

The Lions rank last in the NFL in points allowed giving up 30.6 a game. The Packers' offense is ready to explode after consecutive road games against the Broncos and Panthers. 

Now the Packers get their perfect patsy in the Lions. Detroit's defense has not been able to overcome the loss of linebacker DeAndre Levy and defection of lineman Ndamukong Suh. Without those two, the Lions don't have a single above average defender. 
Green Bay can take advantage being back at home especially with the obvious move to install James Starks as the primary runner ahead of ineffective Eddie Lacy. Starks also is a much better target out of the backfield than Lacy. 
The Lions' offense has underachieved. It should be better coming out of a bye. The Packers are banged-up in the secondary and some of their statistics are skewed by playing a number of weak offenses. It was just two years ago the Lions put up 40 points on the Packers, although that came in Detroit. 
The over has cashed five of the last six times the Packers have played in division and five of the past six times the Packers lost the previous week. 

Everything is in place for Washington State to pull the upset and defeat UCLA. Even if that doesn't happen, the Cougars should definitely be able to hang in. To get double-digits is a nice bonus. 
I like UCLA freshman quarterback Josh Rosen. But I really like Washington State sophomore quarterback Luke Falk. He leads the country in passing yards with 3,376. He's also tied for second in touchdown throws with 33 against just seven interceptions. 
The Bruins defense has been hit hard by injuries. There isn't a senior starter left. The Bruins shut out Oregon State last week. I actually believe that works in Washington State's favor. Not only did it perhaps play a part in this inflated line, but it gives the Bruins a false sense of confidence. 
Oregon State has a depleted offense. The Cougars are cooking behind Falk. The team is comfortable in Mike Leach's high octane system this being his fourth season in Pullman. The Bruins haven't had experience dealing with Leach's unique schemes being so young on defense. 
Washington State has won seven of its last eight games while also going 7-1 ATS. The Cougars are 4-2 in the Pac-12 with their defeats occurring to California by six and Stanford by two. The Cougars led by more than a touchdown in the second half against both of those teams. 
Washington State has covered all six of its Pac-12 games. The Cougars are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games. Playing in the Rose Bowl is a big deal to them. UCLA has covered only one of its last six home games and is 3-7 ATS the past 10 times as home chalk. 

Both offenses are in good form. Toledo is averaging 44.7 points in its last four games. Central Michigan is averaging 40 points during its last two home games. Those matchups were against Buffalo and Northern Illinois. 

Toledo has a strong rushing attack headed by a now healthy Kareem Hunt, probably the Mid-American Conference's top running back. The Rockets have rushed for 238 or more yards in each of their last five games. They have excellent running back depth behind Hunt.
Central Michigan allowed both Western Michigan and Northern Illinois to each rush for more than 200 yards against them. 
The Chippewas' strength is quarterback Cooper Rush and a deep set of wider receivers. Central Michigan averages nearly 300 yards passing per game. Rush is completing 69 percent of his throws with just eight interceptions in 335 attempts. He has 14 touchdown passes in his last five games. 
The Rockets have surrendered six touchdown passes in their last two games. Northern Illinois averaged 17.3 yards per pass completion in knocking off Toledo last week. The Rockets have faced a number of weak passing offenses in the conference. So I see their secondary being quite vulnerable to Rush. 
Note that the winning team in this series has scored at least 38 points during each of the previous six games.

San Diego isn't nearly good enough to overcome its multitude of injuries to beat many teams by more than a field goal, including the Bears. 
The Chargers have lost six of their last seven game. They are on a four-game losing streak. The Chargers' two victories have come by a total of eight points. Those wins were against the Lions and Browns, whose combined record is 3-14. 
Chicago has been better than perceived thanks to excellent coaching from head coach John Fox and offensive coordinator Adam Gase, both of whom came from the Broncos and are very familiar with San Diego. The Chargers, though, aren't so familiar with the Bears, who they last played in 2011. 
Each of the Bears' last four games have been decided by three or fewer points. Jay Cutler has been much better this season. He's been aided greatly by the well-respected Gase. Having Alshon Jeffery back makes a huge difference for Chicago's offense. The Chargers have surrendered 24 or more points in every one of their games. 
San Diego has zero rushing touchdowns in its last seven games. Chicago hasn't yielded a rushing touchdown in its last five games. Philip Rivers is having another super season, but the Chargers are not balanced and minus their best wide receiver, Keenan Allen. 
Chicago won't have Matt Forte. But Jeremy Langford is an underrated backup and Chicago is far healthier than the Chargers.
San Diego will be without its left tackle and center. The Chargers also could be down a third starting offensive lineman as left guard Orlando Franklin is doubtful. Tight end Ladarius Green isn't likely to play either. 
The Chargers are beat up, too, defensively. Linebackers Manti Te'o and Denzel Perryman are out. Three other key defenders - lineman Corey Liuget, cornerback Jason Verrett and safety Eric Weddle - are questionable. 
Unlike the Bears, the Chargers have not had their bye yet. That comes next week. They are battered and worn down. It's too much to ask them to cover a point spread of more than a field goal. 

Dallas beat the Eagles, 20-10, back in Week 2. It was a costly victory as the Cowboys lost Tony Romo. They haven't won since going 0-5, 1-4 ATS. Dallas is averaging less than 15 points a game during its last four games. 
Matt Cassel has been as bad as Brandon Weeden and that's as bad as it gets. The Cowboys have scored two touchdowns in their last three games. Dez Bryant is back, but his value is shot because he doesn't have a quarterback who can get him the ball. He caught just two passes for 14 yards last week. 
The Eagles are rested coming off their bye week. They are healthy again on defense. Philadelphia is very underrated defensively ranking in the top three against the run and top seven versus the pass, according to Football Outsiders. The Eagles have picked off 11 passes while permitting 10 touchdown throws. They have 19 takeaways in seven games. The Cowboys, by contrast, have one takeaway during their last five games. 
Dallas has given up an average of 4.74 yards per rush during its last five games.
Chip Kelly is sharp enough to tweak his system to feature more running plays for DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews to take advantage of Dallas' weaknesses. The Eagles' ground attack has picked up averaging 5.1 yards per rush during the last three games. 

Atlanta is much improved defensively under Dan Quinn. The Falcons have been fortunate, though, to draw a number of terrible quarterbacks.
That streak continues in this game with the worst of the worst - Blaine Gabbert. He would be terrible if had weapons, but the 49ers have nothing surrounding him. Gabbert has a career completion rate of just 53.2 percent with a 5.6 yards per average. 
San Francisco is down to its fourth-string running back. Vernon Davis is gone. Anquan Boldin is battling a hamstring injury and likely will be held out with the 49ers having a bye next week. The 49ers' offensive line has played terrible, too. 
The 49ers have been very good defensively at home holding four foes to an average of 15 points a game. Levi's Stadium is notorious for its slippery, slow grass surface. So that's a disadvantage for the Falcons, who play on carpet inside a dome. 
Devonta Freeman and Julio Jones are having big years for Atlanta. However, Matt Ryan has been mediocre. He's already committed 10 turnovers. 

First off, Tampa Bay can't win at home. The Buccaneers are 1-11 in their last 12 at Raymond James Stadium, 3-9 ATS.
Tampa Bay is giving up an average of 37.3 points in three home games this season. 
Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. are red-hot. The Buccaneers rank 28th in scoring defense allowing 28.4 points a game. They have allowed 17 touchdown passes. 
The Giants were torched last week by Drew Brees. Jameis Winston is not Drew Brees. He's a rookie who is going to be without two of his three top wide receivers with Vincent Jackson not likely to play and Louis Murphy out. He may not have tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins either.
The Giants are the better team with the better quarterback. The Buccaneers are somewhat improved, but don't know how to win. They are 2-9 under Lovie Smith in games decided by six points or less. 

This isn't an overreaction to the Giants surrendering 52 points and 608 yards to the Saints last week. The Giants defense is real bad. There is no pass rush with only nine sacks in eight games. The linebackers are slow and the safeties are extremely shaky. 
Jameis Winston is improving each game helped by a solid 1-2 running punch of Doug Martin and Charles Sims. The Buccaneers are averaging 28.5 points in their last four games. 
The Giants' offense has improved, too, under second-year offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo. The Giants rank fifth in scoring at 26.9 points a game. Eli Manning has thrown the fourth-most touchdown passes in the NFL with 17. Tampa Bay has surrendered 17 touchdown throws with just four interceptions. 
The Buccaneers are giving up the fifth-most points per game in the NFL at 28.4. 

Bad spot for Oakland. Near desperation time for Pittsburgh.
The Raiders are coming off a hugely satisfying home win against the Jets. Now, though, they have to fly East for an early start time against the Steelers. The Raiders are 1-15 SU, 6-10 ATS in their last 16 Eastern Time Zone games.
Look for Pittsburgh's passing attack to be much better now that Ben Roethlisberger had a game to get the rust off. Losing Le'Veon Bell hurts, but the Steelers are fortunate enough to have one of the better backup running backs, DeAngelo Williams.
Oakland ranks second-to-last in pass defense. The Raiders have surrendered at least two touchdown passes in every game but one.
Pittsburgh's defense has been much better than perceived ranking fifth in fewest points allowed at 18.4 per game. That number shrinks to 16 points in the Steelers' last six games. Pittsburgh has held four teams to their lowest point total of the season, including the Patriots, Bengals and Cardinals. 
At 4-4 the Steelers are in must-win mode. 

Look for the Titans to come out fired-up playing harder and with more intelligence under new coach Mike Mularkey. 

Marcus Mariota gives the offense a huge lift and the running game should work better against the Saints, who allow the second-most yards per game in the NFL and third-most points per game at 29.2. 

Tennessee has an underrated secondary and it's going to be better this week with Perrish Cox, the team's best cornerback, set to return from an injured hamstring. 

The Saints achieved three of their four victories by a combined 15 points and that includes a six-point win in overtime. Their other victory was by 10 points against the Falcons, who were minus three in turonver ratio.

The Saints simply aren't good enough to be laying more than a touchdown like this against a team that should show much better than what is perceived due to Mariota being back and a coaching change. 

No pun intended, but the Buckeyes are in a "Kill' spot here. A big factor why is Minnesota having little left in the tank after an emotional home game last week against Michigan. That was the Gophers' first game following Jerry Kill's resignation due to health reasons.
The Gophers gave everything they had as double-digit 'dogs, but lost 29-26. The Gophers had driven all the way to Michigan's 1-yard line at the end of the game, but were stuffed and didn't execute good clock management. 
Now the physical and emotionally-spent Gophers go on the road against the top team in the nation. Making matters worse for Minnesota is that Ohio State is rested after being idle last week. Urban Meyer teams are 15-4-1 ATS off a bye, 7-2 ATS the past nine times.  
Ohio State is 22-1 since last season. They have won the statistics battle in every one of those 23 games. 
J.T. Barrett is suspended, but I see no drop-off in quarterbacks for the Buckeyes with Cardale Jones. He's a monster upgrade on Minnesota's Mitch Leidner, one of my least favorite quarterbacks in the Big Ten. Leidner has only two more touchdowns than interceptions. Ohio State backup quarterback Braxton Miller is far better than Leidner. 
It's not just Jones. The Buckeyes are loaded everywhere, including running back where Ezekiel Elliott leads the Big Ten in rushing and has rushed for triple digits in his last 13 games. 

I've never been in the habit of laying points with UNLV, but circumstances make this a bargain spot to back the Rebels.

UNLV is much improved under first-year head coach Tony Sanchez. He's been the best Rebels coach in nearly 30 years. 
The Rebels are far better offensively with quarterback Blake Decker in the lineup. He returned last week from missing two games with a shoulder injury and helped the Rebels hang with Boise State for more than three quarters before their defense caved. 
Now the Rebels step way down in class to host a bone weary Hawaii team in disarray following a 58-7 loss to Air Force last week, the team's worst home loss in school history. Hawaii coach Norm Chow was fired right after that defeat. 
The Warriors return to the mainland for the fifth time in seven weeks. This also marks the Warriors' 10th consecutive week of playing. They have not had a bye all season. 
This would be brutal on any team, but it hits the Warriors even harder because they are undersized and lack depth. Their defense couldn't stand up to Air Force running the ball 83 times. Hawaii's defense was on the field for 45 minutes. Before that game, Hawaii faced five opponents in a row who ran the ball 50 or more times. 

While Hawaii is dealing with extreme fatigue issues and being in disarray with a coaching change this late in the season, UNLV is in revenge mode. The Rebels lost in controversial fashion to the Warriors last year on the road, 37-35, when they were penalized twice for excessive celebration following a go-ahead touchdown with 15 seconds left. The Rebels believed they were homered in that game by a slow moving clock official. Hawaii pulled out that victory with a touchdown pass on the final play.  
So don't expect the Rebels to be sympathetic to the Warriors and their sad plight. 

Utah State has a strong balanced offense that keeps getting better. The Aggies have scored 52 or more points in three of their last four games. They have gone over the total in each of their last six games. 
New Mexico's defense is surrendering an average of 32 points since Week 2 when it started facing Division I opponents. 
The Lobos, though, rank 12th in the nation in rushing at 252.2 yards per game. The Aggies have been weak versus the run lately allowing their last two foes - San Diego State and Wyoming, minus its starting quarterback, - to rush for more than 300 yards per game while averaging 5.5 yards per run. New Mexico averages 5.3 yards per rush. 
Note, too, that the Lobos have gone over in five of their last six home contests. 

I like Washington State's quarterback and pass defense better than Arizona State's. That's where I see the game being decided.
This is a triple revenge game for the Cougars, who have covered in their last five Pac-12 games. They nearly upset Stanford last week as a 10-point 'dog losing, 30-28. The Cougars are a win away from being bowl eligible, which is huge for them.
The Sun Devils are off a draining and heart-breaking 61-55 loss to Oregon in triple overtime last week. 
Washington State leads the Pac-12 in passing and ranks third in the nation behind Luke Falk.
Arizona State hasn't played well defensively this season. The Sun Devils rank last in the conference in pass defense and 101st overall. Washington State's pass defense, on the other hand, is No. 1 in the Pac-12. 
The Sun Devils have failed to cover in eight of their last 10 games. 

Notre Dame got past Temple, 24-20, in a physical road matchup last week. Now the Irish get a physical Pittsburgh team coached by Pat Narduzzi. He was Michigan State's highly respected defensive coordinator and knows the Irish well. 
Pittsburgh has played Notre Dame very tough. The Panthers won the last meeting, 28-21, at home two years ago. The Panthers also covered against the Irish in 2011 and 2012 losing each of those games by three points. 
Notre Dame is 8-13 ATS during its last 21 road contests. 
The Irish have been riding backup quarterback DeShone Kaiser. He's played well for the most part, but doesn't always make wise decisions. 
Pitt has gotten steady play from junior quarterback Nathan Peterman, who has completed close to 68 percent of his throws and has a 10-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Panthers also have one of the best wide receivers in the nation, Tyler Boyd. He's just 49 yards away from holding Pitt's school record for receiving yards. 

This is my Total of the Week.

BYU is rolling with a four-game winning streak. The Cougars are averaging 45.7 points during this span. Freshman Tanner Mangum has proven to be an able replacement for injured starting quarterback Tayson Hill. 
The Cougars have several decent running backs to support Hill and could get senior Adam Hind back for this game. 
San Jose State also has showed well offensively is most of their games. The Spartans' starting offensive line has been intact all season and senior Tyler Ervin is one of the top playmakers in the country ranking third in rushing with 1,159 yards and has another 232 yards receiving. 
The Spartans were idle last week. They have gone over the total six of the last seven times following a bye. 

This is the lowest SMU total of the season - and it gets me involved. The Mustangs have a good quarterback, Matt Davis, and are averaging nearly 30 points a game.

But their defense is terrible ranking near the bottom in all the major categories. The Mustangs are giving up 43.6 points per game. 

These teams met two years ago and there were a combined 108 points scored. Temple is stepping way down in class and has put up a lot of points on better defenses than the Mustangs. 

I can't see anything but a lopsided Bengals victory here. 
Cincinnati has way too much offense for Cleveland. The Bengals won't come in overconfident either after suffering a stunning home loss to Cleveland last year on a Thursday night. 
The Browns are going to be missing three members of their secondary, steady wide receiver Brian Hartline and starting quarterback Josh McCown.
I have no faith that Johnny Manziel can keep Cleveland in the game against this caliber of defense and on a short week. 

Toledo is unbeaten at 7-0. But I'm not convinced the Rockets are better than Northern Illinois. 
The Huskies very well could have the better skill position players and defense. They are 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 road games. This includes a 7-1-1 ATS mark the past nine times they've been a road underdog.  
Northern Illinois quarterback Drew Hare has a 13-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 142 quarterback rating. Toledo quarterback Phillip Ely has a 15-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 128.9 passer rating. 
The Huskies' three losses came to Central Michigan by 10 even though they outgained Central Michigan by 41 yards, by seven on the road to Ohio State and by three on the road to Boston College. 
The Huskies also have defeated the Rockets during the past five meetings. 

Both teams are 6-0 and off byes. The Packers' 6-0 is real. The Broncos' 6-0 is bogus. 
Denver has had to battle in every one of its games. The Broncos ranked eighth in point differential despite not having lost.
The Broncos' offense has produced only nine touchdowns. The problems are a below average offensive line, mediocre running backs and a washed-up Peyton Manning. 
Manning should have retired after last season. He ranks 31st in the passer ratings with a 72.5 ranking. He's tied for the most interceptions thrown with 10. He's as smart and savvy as ever, but he can no longer drive the ball and his accuracy is down. To be brutally honest, he's one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league now. Sad, but true. 
The Packers have a monster quarterback edge with Aaron Rodgers. Eddie Lacy and Davonte Adams should be at full strength, too. 
Denver's home field and outstanding defense are definite pluses. However, they can't outweigh Green Bay's considerable offensive edge. Today's game is about offense not defense. The rules ensure that. Manning can't keep up with Rodgers. 

Minnesota has Adrian Peterson and Teddy Bridgewater is coming off his best performance. Stefon Diggs has upgraded Minnesota's receiving corps and pumped up the offense. The Bears have a weak defense giving up 29.8 points per game, which ranks second-to-last. 
The Bears, though, have become dangerous on offense now that they are finally fully healthy at the skill positions. Alshon Jeffery makes a huge difference. Jay Cutler has a good history at home versus the Vikings throwing 16 touchdown passes against them in six games at Soldier Field. 

I'm not a fan of Cleveland's skill position players. I regard them as among the weakest in the league. Making matters worse for the Browns is Josh McCown is limited by a sore shoulder. Backup Johnny Manziel has proven to be near worthless disdained so far by many in the Cleveland organization. 
The Cardinals rank fourth in total defense. Only seven teams give up fewer points than Arizona, which has limited opponents to 19 points per game. 
This is a flat spot for the Cardinals, though. They are traveling on a short week. Their bye is next week. They are playing a bad, non-conference opponent. So focus could be a problem. So could fatigue. This marks Arizona's third road matchup in four weeks.  
The Browns' secondary should have back cornerback Joe Haden and free safety Tashaun Gipson. The Cardinals aren't likely to have underrated wide receiver John Brown. 
Look for the Cardinals to run more since Cleveland ranks last in run defense. That's going to keep the clocking moving. 
Weather could factor, too. The forecast is for heavy winds up to 23 mph. 

Power ratings-wise I have this total rated much higher in a battle of the two best offenses in the Pac-12.
Stanford has really cranked up its offense since Week 1 scoring at least 31 points during each of its past six games. The Cardinal is averaging 47.3 points in their last three games. Washington ranks 90th in points allowed per game at 31 and is 97th in total yards defensively.
The Cougars can pile up the points, too, behind quarterback Luke Falk. They rank No. 2 in the nation in passing. The over has cashed 20 of the last 28 times Washington State has played at home. 

This is a kill spot for Utah after it lost to USC on the road last week.
Not only are the Utes looking to get untracked in a big way, but Oregon State is a beaten up and demoralized team. The Beavers are inexperienced on defense and suffered injuries to their running back and offensive line. They don't have the depth to patch up the holes.
The Beavers have only covered three of their last 20 games and have failed to cover in their last eight road contests. They are 1-10 ATS during their past 11 Pac-12 games.

Florida quarterback Treon Harris looked good in his last game replacing suspended Will Grier. He threw for 217 yards and two scores in a 35-28 road loss to LSU. Harris helped lead the Gators past Georgia in last season's game, 38-20.

Kelvin Taylor gives Florida a respected runner and the Gators are deep at tight end. Taylor gashed Georgia for 197 yards rushing in last year's game. 
On the Georgia side, Sony Michael has filled in nicely for injured Nick Chubb. The Bulldogs have gone over in 15 of their last 22 SEC contests. Expect Georgia to play loose and fast in this one. Also expect some wrinkles as both team's also are off byes.

The Broncos are balanced and have far too many weapons for the Rebels to stop. UNLV only has six sacks on the season. 

UNLV, though, is capable of putting up its share of points especially with quarterback Blake Decker back from a shoulder injury. UNLV is averaging 39.5 points in its last four games and is averaging 213.6 yards on the ground. Boise State has yielded more than 100 yards rushing in its last three games. 
The Broncos can't just concentrate on stopping UNLV's running attack with Decker behind center. 
Boise State has gone over in 20 of its last 28 road games. 

Clemson is sitting at 10-0 having destroyed Miami, 58-0, in its last game and with its biggest game of the season on deck versus Florida State on Nov. 7. 
The Tigers are in an ambush spot - and North Carolina State has the right ingredients and personnel to pull off the feat.
The Wolfpack are 5-2 SU and ATS. They have covered eight of their last 10 games going back to last season. They will be tremendously motivated having lost to Clemson each of the last three seasons, including 41-0 last year on the road. That was the worst loss in Dave Doeren's three years at North Carolina State. 
Clemson has its revenge game of the year on deck versus Florida State. That's the game the Tigers are pointing to not this one. 
The Wolfpack rank second in the ACC in total defense and have a very reliable quarterback, Jacoby Brissett. He has a 33-to-six touchdown-to-interception ratio during the past two seasons. 
Clemson has an explosive offense with Deshaun Watson. But the Wolfpack can play keep away. They rank second in the country in time of possession. 
Note, too, that North Carolina State is dangerous on special teams ranking first in the ACC in kick return yardage and punt return yardage. 

Chip Kelly's high-tempo offense finally is picking up. So is DeMarco Murray, who has scored a touchdown in each of his last two games and ran for 112 yards last week. Philadelphia is averaging 28.6 points in its last three games. The Eagles also have dangerous kick and punt returners so they are live, too, to score on special teams. 
Only one team runs plays at a faster pace than the Eagles. The Eagles have played five games against NFC South Division teams during the Kelly era and the combined points have never been below 50. The average total in these games is 54.6. 
The Eagles and Panthers met last year and Philly won, 45-21, at home. 
The Panthers have an underrated offense. Cam Newton is having a huge season. Greg Olsen is a top-five tight end. The Panthers showed how strong their offense is when they scored two touchdowns at Seattle during the final four minutes to pull out a victory last week. The Panthers are averaging even more points per game than the Eagles during their last three games - 30 a game. 
Newton can take advantage of the Eagles' cluster injury problem at linebacker where Kiko Alonso and Mychael Kendricks are out and DeMeco Ryans is questionable with a hamstring injury. 

The Saints have the worst defense in the league and are on the road. Not a good combination.
Chuck Pagano isn't the sharpest coach around that's for sure. But the Colts do play hard for him. They have a great track when playing bad teams - 19-4 ATS versus foes under .500. Indianapolis also is 17-3 ATS following a loss.
Andrew Luck showed enough against the Patriots that he's past his shoulder injuries.  to be trusted to put up a lot of points, especially against this opponent. Luck is 21-7 at home compared to 16-14 when on the road. 
Luck should light up a Saints secondary that has permitted 11 touchdown passes and has only two interceptions and is allowing 8.6 yards per pass.  

Now that the pressure is off them, the Chiefs will play loose and win. They are better than their record having already lost to three unbeaten teams and blowing a game against the Bears over the shock of seeing Jamaal Charles suffer a season-ending injury.
The Chiefs have loyal fans and they will play hard here to reward them. It's a huge help for Kansas City's offense that Jeremy Maclin has been cleared to play. 
But the biggest factor in this handicap is the strong belief that Landry Jones is going to be Pittsburgh's starting quarterback. He's one of the worst backups in the league. He's actually a third-stringer, but Michael Vick is hurt and won't play. Ben Roethlisberger still is a week away. 
Before last week, Jones had never played in a regular season game. His statistics from last week against the Cardinals at home look good, but they are highly misleading. Martavius Bryant turned an eight-yard pass into an 88-yard touchdown.
Now Jones has to make his first start - and it comes in a very difficult road setting. Kansas City can bring a lot of heat from the edges with Justin Houston and Tamba Hali.  

Miami got a boost with a new head coach and defensive coordinator last week steamrolling Tennessee. But the Dolphins are as mediocre as Houston and the Texans will be far better prepared now that they have film on what the Dolphins did under interim coach Dan Campbell and defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo. 
The Dolphins are in a flat spot. They were super pumped for their first game under new leadership last week. Up next following this game for Miami is a Thursday matchup versus New England. 
The Dolphins have failed to cover in their last five home games, losing four of them straight-up.
Houston's DeAndre Hopkins is making a case of being the best wide receiver in football. The Dolphins are thin in the secondary. Cornerback Brice McCain is unlikely to play and Brent Grimes, Miami's other corner, is less than 100 percent because of a knee injury. 
The Texans are getting better now that Arian Foster is close to 100 percent and Brian Hoyer is back entrenched at quarterback. Those two are massive upgrades on Ryan Mallet and Alfred Blue. 

This is my Favorite's Play of the Month. I'm not surprised the line has gone up since I released the play as the Rams clearly are the right side.

The Browns have gone hard three straight weeks losing 30-27 to the Chargers, beating Baltimore in overtime and losing in overtime last week to the Broncos. 

Cleveland doesn't have an abundance of talent. The Browns' skill position players are among the weakest in the league. It takes a supreme effort for the Browns to hang in against most opponents. 
I believe the Browns are out of gas for this road matchup. St. Louis is coming off its bye week. The Rams hold matchup, situation and field edges that should result in more than a touchdown victory. 
The Browns are a grass team. This is their first dome game. Cleveland ranks 30th in total defense, last in run defense. The Rams have a potential superstar running back Todd Gurley. He's healthy now and has rushed for 305 yards in his last two games. 
I'm not a fan of Rams quarterback Nick Foles, but he's still better than Browns journeyman Josh McCown and he has speed at the flanks. The Browns were missing two key members of their secondary last week, cornerback Joe Haden and free safety Tashaun Gipson. Neither practiced on Wednesday. I'm releasing this play Wednesday night as I see the line going higher.
Foles should be able to pick his spots, too, off play-action since the Browns will be keying on Gurley. 
St. Louis has 19 sacks in five games. The Rams have the best pass rushing defensive front in football. McCown plays scared when under pressure. I envision multiple turnovers from him against this defense. 
The Rams are stepping down in class after facing Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson, Carson Palmer and Aaron Rodgers. They should dominate McCown and his lack of weapons. 
Coaching-wise this is a mismatch, too, between Jeff Fisher and Mike Pettine. 

Utah is in its fifth year in the Pac-12 and can play with the big boys. The Utes are 6-0 and it's a strong 6-0. They are the only team in the Pac-12 South without a loss. 
The Utes beat the Trojans last season, 24-21, and they are in great shape to do it again Saturday. Not only are the Utes a well-rounded power, but they catch USC in disarray. 
The Trojans have talent, like always, but they have under performed and been mismanaged. They are still cleaning up the Steve Sarkisian mess. 
Utah can match USC at the key skill position spots with quarterback Travis Wilson and running back Devontae Booker, who ranks 10th nationally in rushing averaging 130.5 yards per game. 

These two teams have picked up their offenses. 
Old Dominion defeated Charlotte, 37-34, last week. Florida International fell 42-34 to Middle Tennessee last Saturday. 
Panthers sophomore quarterback Alex McGough is coming on. He's coming off a 260-yard passing performance where he threw 51 times. McGough has passed for 200-or-more yards six times this season. He has 14 touchdown throws on the season, which ranks 18th in the nation. 
Alex Gardner provides a ground threat, too, for the Panthers with 454 yards. He's scored a rushing touchdown in his last three games. He also is a good receiving back. 
Richard Leonard is one of the most dangerous kick returners in the country. He's No. 2 in Panthers' school history in return yardage. 
The teams met last year and there were 73 points scored in a 38-35 win for the Monarchs. 

Western Michigan can almost reach this total alone. The Broncos are averaging 36.7 points and 453.6 yards per game - and that's factoring in having played a brutal non-conference schedule.
Western Michigan has gone against Michigan State, Georgia Southern and Ohio State. Those teams entered this week having just one combined loss. 
The Broncos have a top rushing attack that can take advantage of a porous Miami of Ohio defense giving up 36.7 points per game and 453.6 yards. 

San Diego State is playing its finest football limiting its last three opponents to an average of 9.3 points per game. The Aztecs have held opponents to 162.7 yards per game this month, lowest in the FBS for October. 
This is a huge game for both teams. But the timing is great for the Aztecs and not just because they are peaking. They catch Utah State traveling on a short week after the Aggies crushed Boise State, 52-26. That was one of the great victories in Utah State history. It also could mean a letdown this week. 
Utah State's lopsided win against Boise State, though, was a bit misleading. The Aggies converted eight turnovers into 35 points. The yardage was even.  
The Aggies have become even more of a running team with Kent Myers replacing Chuckie Keeton at quarterback. San Diego State has become extremely stingy allowing yards on the ground holding foes to 33.3 yards per game this month, best in the nation, and just 1.2 yards per carry this month. 
The Aztecs have a very good runner, D.J. Pumphrey. He's rushed for more than 100 yards in his last three games. San Diego State does not have a dynamic offense, but it is efficient. The Aztecs have scored on 94 percent of their drives inside the red zone. 

Eli Manning is having an elite season, the finest of his 11-year career. The Giants are averaging more than 28 points per game during the last three weeks. They ranked seventh in scoring entering this week. 
Manning has become adept at short, precision passes in the second year of operating offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo's offense. This offense is tailor-made to take advantage of the Eagles having a cluster injury problem at linebacker and ranking 26th in pass defense. 
The Eagles offense has come around during the last two weeks averaging 29.5 points during this span. Sam Bradford finally looks comfortable. The Giants rank last in pass defense. They actually made Colin Kaepernick look good last week.
Bradford should be in line for his best game of the season, especially with the crippled Giants defense losing their best cornerback, Prince Amukamara. 
The tempo is going to be high speed. This total is way too low. 

I'm fully aware of New England's strong history against the Colts during the past three years - a 4-0 record with four blowouts. 
But I'm locking in at this price rang in the full belief Andrew Luck is going to play. And if Luck plays this price range is way too high given the Colts are home where they are 21-7-1 ATS (75%) during their last 29 games at Lucas Oil Stadium. 
Luck is going to provide a huge spark and emotional lift after missing the last two games. 
New England is the best team in the AFC right now. But the Patriots haven't played a difficult schedule drawing the Steelers at home, Bills on the road, Jaguars at home and Cowboys minus Tony Romo and Dez Bryant. 
The Patriots have faced just one good quarterback. Their rebuilt secondary hasn't faced a strong test in three games. The Colts have a lot of talent at the skill positions. Frank Gore is averaging 4.47 yards and has had 10 days to get his legs fresh as the Colts last played on Thursday giving them extra rest and prep time. New England ranks among the bottom 12 in rush defense. 
Tom Brady is going to be without his blindside protector as left tackle Nate Solder suffered a season-ending biceps injury. 

The Lions are at low ebb right now. But they finally are in a good spot. 
The Bears are one of the least talented teams in the NFL. They've been coached up by John Fox, but are off a surprising road upset victory coming from 14 points down to beat Kansas City and have multiple injuries. This also is the Bears' first dome game. The only other time they were on turf they were shut out by Seattle.
Jimmy Clausen was the Bears' quarterback in that game. Jay Cutler is an upgrade. However, Cutler is turnover-prone and could be missing his three top receivers and his left tackle. Alshon Jeffery and Eddie Royal missed last week and may not play Sunday. Martellus Bennett, a very good tight end, may be out, too. 
The Bears are hurting defensively, too. Their most experienced defensive back, Antrel Rolle, is out as is one of their better run defenders, linebacker Shea McClellin. 
The Lions are the lone winless team in the NFL. They desperately want to erase that stigma. The LIons have looked bad, but they've had a hard schedule. In their last three games they've played the Broncos, Seahawks on the road and Cardinals. The Bears are playing their second road game in a row and third in four weeks. They have a bye next week. It's a flat spot for them. 
Detroit has the offense to get its frustrations out in a big way. I see Matthew Stafford having his best game of the year. The Bears have intercepted just two passes while giving up 11 touchdowns through the air and 65 percent completions. 
Calvin Johnson manhandled cornerback Kyle Fuller last year in two games catching a combined 17 passes for 249 yards. 

Much credit to the Steelers for upsetting San Diego this past Monday. But I don't see the Steelers minus Ben Roethlisberger pulling off a second consecutive upset. 
Arizona continues to be underrated and is a good fit against this opponent. The Cardinals have a high-powered passing attack, underrated ground game and an aggressive defense. 
The Steelers have allowed more than 70 percent completions, fourth-worst in the NFL. They are vulnerable to Carson Palmer and once again will be minus their top defensive talent, linebacker Ryan Shazier. 
The Cardinals' offense, good to being win, is upgraded even more with the return to health of Andre Ellington and Michael Floyd. 
The spot is tough on Pittsburgh off a last-play, emotional road win against the Chargers and playing on a short week. 
The Cardinals aren't going to lack motivation. Not with Bruce Arians who had a parting of the ways with the Steelers four years ago. 
Michael Vick is way past his prime. The Cardinals not only lead the NFL in interceptions, but their secondary also has posted the fourth-lowest quarterback rating. Vick is going to have problems figuring out Arizona's defensive schemes. I see him committing a bunch of turnovers. 

This line has come down enough where I'm going to get involved with the Broncos.
Too much of a class difference. Even an aged Peyton Manning can take advantage of a weak Browns run defense and a secondary that has given up 10 touchdowns throws with only one interception and will be missing stud cornerback Joe Haden and Tashaun Gipson. 
Josh McCown has put up fancy numbers the past three weeks, but he's stepping in against perhaps the best defense in the NFL. 
Denver has a bye next week. A focused Broncos squad should win this matchup by more than a field goal. 

Now that Bill O'Brien has figured out what everybody else knew that Brian Hoyer is his best quarterback, the Texans are ready to improve. They start here against one of the worst teams in the NFL - the Jaguars. 
Jacksonville has shown small improvement, but not enough to warrant being favored here especially since Arian Foster finally is fully healthy for Houston. Foster can dominate this game. So can J.J. Watt on the other side of the ball. Jacksonville can't match and has no answer for those players. 
The Jaguars are banged-up. Their best running back, T.J. Yeldon, may not play due to a groin injury and their best offensive lineman, guard Brandon Lindor, is out. The Jaguars gave up six sacks last week in a loss to Tampa Bay. Blake Bortles suffered an AC joint sprain in his throwing shoulder so he won't be 100 percent. 
Hoyer isn't anyone's idea of a Pro Bowl quarterback, but he's a huge upgrade on Ryan Mallet in terms of accuracy, game-managing and being a leader. Hoyer also has put up decent numbers - a 5-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio, 62.1 percent completions and 8.21 yards per pass attempt. 
The Jaguars have one of the weakest home fields as reflected in a 7-18-1 ATS mark. 

Central Florida has surrendered 116 points in its last three games. Temple has a balanced offense that can take advantage behind quarterback P.J. Walker and running back Jahad Thomas. 
Central Florida has yet to intercept a pass this season. 
The Golden Knights should be better offensively, though, with the return of junior quarterback Justin Holman. He's the type of quarterback who can make big plays, but also commit turnovers which are conducive for over the total. 

Oregon State is outmatched here and can't keep up with Washington State's high-powered attack and star quarterback Luke Falk. 
The Cougars are averaging nearly 400 yards through the air. Falk has thrown 15 touchdowns with just two interceptions. 
Oregon State's pass defense doesn't look bad statistically, but that's because the Beavers rank 111th in run defense. The Cougars have the balance to take advantage. 
Oregon State has failed to cover in its last four away contests. 

This is unbeaten Texas A&M's biggest game of the four-year era of Kevin Sumlin. Everything is in place for the Aggies to upset Alabama. 
The Crimson Tide are down a notch. The Aggies are a rising power. This is their chance to prove it - and they get Alabama at home, are rested after being idle last week and hold a powerful revenge incentive. 
The key question is how improved are the Aggies from the team that was humiliated 59-0 on the road by Alabama last year? 
The answer is much improved, enough to beat the Crimson Tide straight-up. 
Since that loss, the Aggies switched quarterbacks to Kyle Allen, hired respected defensive coordinator John Chavis from LSU to improve their defense - which they have - and become more balanced offensively with a power ground attack spearheaded by Tra Carson. 
The Crimson Tide have failed to cover in four of their last five games. They are vulnerable to Texas A&M's up-tempo style. Alabama's major weakness is its secondary. The only team Alabama has faced that is similar in offense to Texas A&M was Mississippi. The Rebels exploited Alabama's secondary throwing for 341 yards and three touchdowns while scoring 43 points in a six-point victory. 
Allen has multiple stud wide receivers - Christian Kirk, Josh Reynolds and Ricky Seals-Jones - to stretch the field plus reliable Carson on the ground to keep the Crimson Tide's defense honest. 

The Aggies rank 15th in the country in scoring averaging 39.2 points per game. Allen has a 13-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. I like him and the Aggies' offense much more than Alabama's offense and its quarterback Jake Coker, who has an 11-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. 
Chavis is one of the most respected defensive coordinators in the country. He knows Alabama well from having been at LSU. The Tigers under Chavis held the Crimson Tide to under 22 points in all but one of their last five games. 
Chavis has two star edge pass rushers, Myles Garrett and Daeshon Hall, to cause havoc for Coker. Garrett and Hall have combined for 12 1/2 sacks and 16 tackles for a loss while forcing five fumbles. 
The Crimson Tide has had to play Georgia and Arkansas the past two weeks. Texas A&M had a bye last week. The Aggies haven't left the state of Texas all season. They are rested and ready. Their time has come. 

Sharp money is moving this game up. I respect the line move and am joining in. 
Northern Illinois has gotten its offense back on track putting up 59 points against Ball State in its last game. 
These teams met last year and Northern Illinois won 51-41. The teams combined for 1,172 yards in that game.

The rankings say Mississippi No. 12 and Memphis No. 22. But make no mistake there remains a huge class difference between these two teams. 
Mississippi far outclasses Memphis. 
The Rebels are road tested having faced Alabama and Florida, while this is a step up for Memphis. The Rebels beat the Tigers by 21 points last season, gaining 323 more yards. 
Yes, Memphis is improved but its up-tempo style is going to encounter problems going against a very strong SEC foe compared to its usual AAC defenses that tire easier. There also is zero chance the Rebels overlook the Tigers, who carry a 12-game unbeaten streak. 
Memphis' home field advantage isn't that big either because the Mississippi campus is less than 75 miles and the Rebels will carry strong support. 

Boise State has it going offensively now averaging 51 points during its last four games sparked by freshman quarterback Brett Rypien, who has completed 70.2 percent of his throws for 1,057 yards with a 7-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. 

The Broncos have gone over in six of their last seven road games. 

Utah State quarterback Kent Myers also is playing well. He's completing more than 65 percent of his throws. The Aggies are coming off a 56-14 waltz over Fresno State. Myers also is adept at running the ball, too. 

None of the past five games in this series have gone under the total. 

The oddsmaker considers these teams even with this point spread factoring in the Chargers' home field advantage being worth a field goal. 
But San Diego is a touchdown better than Pittsburgh due to the Steelers dropping down at quarterback from Ben Roethlisberger to Michael Vick. Forget the past. The 35-year-old Vick is just a shell of his former self. His sloppy ballhandling and lack of work ethic really hurt him now that his once awe inspiring talent has all but diminished. 
Vick has lost 14 of the last 20 times he's started. The Steelers' defense isn't nearly strong enough to compensate for a mediocre offense with a turnover prone quarterback.
The Chargers should have three of their starting offensive linemen healthy after being out last week. Astute San Diego coach Mike McCoy knows how to get the best of Philip Rivers, who remains in his prime. 

This is a case of going over the total with a top 10 scoring team in the Giants against a buy-low underachieving 49ers offense that has talent and is facing the league's worst pass defense.
In today's NFL, with the rules heavily skewed in favor of offense, a total in this range is low. 
Not only did the Giants enter this week ranked 32nd in pass defense giving up 316.3 yards per game through the air, but they had surrendered the 26th most overall yards. Colin Kaepernick has the receiving weapons to take advantage with Torrey Smith and a still good Anquan Boldin. 
The 49ers catch the Giants missing a number of defensive players, including linebacker Devon Kennard and pass rusher Robert Ayers. 
San Francisco gave a strong defensive effort at home last week against Green Bay. But the 49ers are way down defensively due to retirements and free agency losses. They have been at their worst on the road giving up 47 points to the Cardinals and 43 to the Steelers. On the season, the 49ers give up the fourth-highest passer rating and are tied for second-worst with a 9.2 yard per pass attempt against. The 49ers have given up seven touchdown passes in their last three games with only one interception. 
The 49ers also could be without one their better defensive players, linebacker Ahmad Brooks. His sister died this week so he may not play. 
Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. can light up this low caliber of defense.

Neither of these offenses impresses me. 
I rank the Browns as having the worst skill position players in the league. The Ravens' defense is down from past greatness, but still is respectable especially at home. I have no confidence in Josh McCown, who has lost 13 of his last 14 starts and has more turnovers than touchdown passes during this span. 
McCown is good for the under. He's not talented enough to make effective downfield throws. But he's savvy enough to be careful with his throws and play-calling, which is usually very conservative. He also doesn't make good plays off broken plays preferring to take a sack unlike Johnny Manziel, who should be the Browns' starting quarterback. 
The Ravens are down two of their four best wide receivers, including Steve Smith Sr. They also could be missing left tackle Eugene Monroe. If you discount their game against the Raiders, the Ravens are averaging less than 20 points per game during regulation. 
The Browns have a respectable defense. 

The Chiefs have a strong offense. Jeremy Maclin is a very good wide receiver. Jamaal Charles is a top three running back and Travis Kelce is a top five tight end.
Kansas City is 10th in the league in scoring at 25 points a game. The Chiefs have achieved this despite opening against the Texans, Broncos, Packers and Bengals. Now they step way down in class to face the Bears. Chicago has been terrible defensively the past two years - and the Bears are just as bad this season surrendering 31.2 points per game. That's the second-most points given up per game in the NFL. 
Bears coach John Fox knows he doesn't have the right personnel nor talent to field a good defense this season. Already the Bears have started dumping defensive players for low draft choices. 
The Bears, though, are respectable on offense with Jay Cutler back behind center. Alshon Jeffery, Chicago's best wide receiver, also should be back this week. 

The Rams have that winning combination with the best pass rushing defensive front in football and potential franchise back Todd Gurley to run the ball. 
Finally healthy and comfortable in a new offense, Gurley had his breakout party last week rushing for 146 yards on 19 carries against Arizona. Green Bay has improved its run defense but still ranks 21st versus the run. 
The Packers are vulnerable to a great pass rushing defensive line minus right tackle Bryan Bulaga. Green Bay's weak links on its offensive line are replacement right tackle Don Barclay and left tackle David Bakhtiari, who will be matched against Robert Quinn. The Packers won't be able to double team any of the Rams because St. Louis doesn't have a weak link on its defensive front. 
Instead look for Green Bay to run the ball more than normal, which eats clock. Aaron Rodgers already is down Jordy Nelson and doesn't expect to have Davonte Adams either. 
The last time Nick Foles played at Lambeau Field was in 2013 when he led the Eagles to a 27-13 win throwing for 228 yards and three touchdowns. Gurley makes Foles and everyone else on offense a better player. 
Jeff Fisher has long been a money-making as an underdog coach with better than a 58 percent ATS record when his team gets points. 

This is a kill spot for the frustrated Chiefs, who are much better than their 1-3 record indicates. The Chiefs have already gone against three undefeated teams - Broncos, Packers and Bengals. 
The Bears are in total rebuild mode. They aren't going to win too many games this season. One of those rare victories came this past Sunday at home against Oakland. Now the Bears are traveling fat and happy to have achieved their first victory.
The Chiefs have a top 10 offense and their defense is stepping down in class. Justin Houston ranks with J.J. Watt as the best pass rusher in football. He'll be going against a Bears offensive line that will be missing its injured starting center and possibly left tackle. 
Jay Cutler is highly turnover prone when pressure is applied to him, which it will against a fierce pass rushing opponent in a very hostile environment. 
Chicago's average loss this season is by 19.6 points. I see a similar result here. The Chiefs have covered five of their last six home games when taking on a foe with a losing record. 

When last spotted Utah was hammering Oregon, 62-20. That was two weeks ago. The Utes were idle last week. They are rested, prepared and have the offense and defense to cover this number against surprising Cal. 
Utah is stronger defensively than the Golden Bears and that defense gets even better with the return from injury of pass rusher supreme Hunter Dimick, who had double-digit sacks last season. 
Quarterback Travis Wilson heads a balanced Utah attack that also features Devontae Booker, who averages 111 yards rushing, and an offensive line that has allowed only one sack all season. 
I'm still leery about Cal's defensive improvement. Let's see how it holds up in this very tough road setting against a good offense. The Golden Bears rely on their excellent quarterback, Jared Goff. He leads the Pac-12 in touchdown passes and passing yards.
But I also like Utah's defense and special teams particularly punter Tom Hackett. I don't see the Golden Bears keeping this one within single digits. 

Too much offense here. Both teams are peaking offensively making this total too short. 
East Carolina has played strong competition this season. The Pirates have put up 84 points during their last two games thanks to a balanced attack. They lead the nation in third down conversions. 
BYU has its offense rolling, too, with freshman quarterback Tanner Mangum looking more and more comfortable. Mangum helped the Cougars put up a season-high 539 yards in a 30-13 win against Connecticut last week. Mangum has a deep receiver group with five receivers having more than 200 yards in receptions. 
The Cougars have gone over in five of their last seven home contests 

Navy has played Notre Dame very tough the past two seasons and are better this season, while the Irish have lost key offensive starters and face a huge look-ahead home revenge game against Southern Cal next week.
The Midshipmen have won 10 of their last 11, including their past eight games. They haven't been 4-0 since 2004. A huge key to Navy's success is quarterback Keenan Reynolds. He's a Heisman Trophy candidate who has scored 73 career touchdowns, most of any college quarterback in history. 
Navy also has a strong pass rush and a defense that its coach, Ken Niumatalolo, says is the best since he became the team's coach in 2008. 
The Midshipmen nearly upset Notre Dame two years ago at South Bend losing, 38-34. Navy was within three points with 4:18 left in last year's game against Notre Dame before losing, 49-39. 
Notre Dame exerted a lot of energy in a driving rain last week at Clemson trailing by 18 before losing, 24-22. The Irish can't help but look ahead to next week when they host USC. It's a huge revenge spot for the Irish, who lost 49-14 to the Trojans last year. 

Georgia should be fired up after being embarrassed by Alabama at home last week. The Bulldogs need an impressive showing to re-establish that they are a national power not to mention needing a victory to get back into serious playoff contention. 
The Bulldogs have the talent to do that. Nick Chubb could be the best runner in the country. He's rushed for 100 yards in his last 13 games.
Tennessee is a demoralized team. The Volunteers have lost in overtime, by one point and by four points. They blew fourth quarter leads against Oklahoma and Florida and then last week blew a 14-point lead against Arkansas. 
The Volunteers are 4-11 ATS the past 15 times facing a foe with a winning record. 

Seattle's defense is rounding into championship form with the arrival of safety Kam Chancellor last week. 

Detroit has problems offensively. The Lions rank last in rushing, their work-in-progress offensive line has allowed Matthew Stafford to absorb way too much punishment and Calvin Johnson has lost some of his explosiveness. 
Playing in the NFL's loudest outdoor venue can only make these problems worse for Detroit. This is the 0-3 Lions' season. But their offense hasn't found balance and the offensive line hasn't come together. That's not going to happen here against this elite defense. 
Detroit also has road issues covering just one of their last eight away matchups. 
Russell Wilson doesn't lose at Century Link Field. He's won 23 of 25 starts there. The Seahawks won't have Marshawn Lynch, but they are deep at running back and the Lions still will be missing their best defensive player, linebacker DeAndre Levy. 
Much is being made of the Lions in must-win mode. Only the 1992 San Diego Chargers made the playoffs after an 0-4 start. But the Seahawks know they must win this game as their next two games are against undefeated teams - at the Bengals and hosting the Panthers. 

The Saints are desperate at 0-3. They'll receive a huge lift with Drew Brees returning to the lineup. It's a Sunday night nationally televised game at home so the Saints will be super pumped. 
The Saints' offense is better than it has shown. It can expose a vulnerable Dallas defense that has relied on its offense to hide its shortcomings by playing ball control. 
The Cowboys, though, aren't capable of sustaining long drives minus Tony Romo, Dez Bryant and DeMarco Murray. Backup quarterback Brandon Weeden has lost his last nine starts. 
Weeden needs weapons to succeed, but Dallas just has fringe, role players manning the skill position spots with Bryant out and Murray in Philadelphia. 

Given how crisp their offense has been, the Cardinals can nearly cover this total themselves.
Arizona leads the NFL in scoring at 42 points per game. Carson Palmer has thrown nine touchdown passes. Only Aaron Rodgers has thrown more this season. Thanks to offensive guru Bruce Arians, Palmer is playing at his highest level. 
The Rams have an excellent pass rush, but they are not a dominant defense. 
St. Louis has enough offense to put up its share of points helping this total go over. The Cardinals don't have a dominant defense either. They've been fortunate to play the Saints, Bears and 49ers - all of whom have quarterbacks that have played sub-par. 
The Rams offense will be helped by an improved ground attack that should be better with Todd Gurley playing in his second game. Arizona's defense misses astute defensive coordinator Todd Bowles, now the Jets head coach. 

Granted San Diego has a big edge at the skill positions. But the Browns have five Pro Bowl players combined in their offensive line and secondary. 
Philip Rivers can't do much when he's not adequately protected, nor can the Chargers take advantage of Cleveland's vulnerable run defense when their offensive line is battered by injuries.
Left guard Orlando Franklin already has been ruled out for San Diego. The Chargers had three other offensive line starters who didn't practice Friday and may not play either. They also could be down to their third-string tight end as Antonio Gates remains under suspension and Ladarius Green is questionable. 
The Browns aren't flashy, but quietly they are 5-0 ATS when taking five or more points under Mike Pettine. They also have the most dangerous player on the field in big-play guy Travis Benjamin, who already has five all-purpose touchdowns. 
Veteran Josh McCown should have time to pick his spots. The Chargers only have one sack on the season. 
The Chargers have been serious money-burners failing to cover in 11 of their last 14 games. They are just 1-5 during their last six home games. 

Atlanta is a surprising 3-0. The Falcons are fat and happy right now. 
New coach Dan Quinn has improved the Falcons. But they still are more finesse than brawn, vulnerable mentally and physically to the Texans. Houston is a power team. No team runs the ball more than the Texans.
I like Houston's edges in the trenches. The Falcons don't have a dominant blocker who can handle J.J. Watt. The Texans can control the line of scrimmage against the Falcons' defensive line, too.
The Texans are expecting to get back from injury this week star running back Arian Foster and left tackle Duane Brown, their best offensive lineman. Ryan Mallet is getting better as he settles into a starting role. This will be his third start in a row. Alfred Blue had a breakout performance this past Sunday and would be capable if Foster still isn't ready to play.
The Texans rank in the top 12 in yardage both offensively and defensively. The Falcons, on the other hand, rank in the bottom six in yards given up. 
Atlanta could be 0-3 in which case this line would be much different.
The Falcons trailed in the fourth quarter during all three of their games. They took advantage of a sleepwalking, out of sync Eagles team at home opening week, beat a bad Giants team in Week 2 and this past Sunday were able to overcome a big early deficit to defeat Dallas, which was minus Tony Romo, Dez Bryant and several key defensive players. 
The Falcons are ripe for a loss. The Texans are a bad matchup for them. 

Oregon is down this season without Marcus Mariota, but do you believe Colorado can upset the Ducks? I sure don't. 
The Buffaloes, as we know, don't win Pac-12 games having lost 12 straight league contests. They draw an angry Ducks team fresh off a humiliating 62-20 pounding by Utah last week. 
Utah is better than advertised and Oregon still is several tiers above Colorado. I'm fine with whomever the Ducks use at quarterback, Vernon Adams or Jeff Lockie. The Buffs still have to deal with running back Royce Freeman, one of the best sophomores in the country with 450 yards rushing and 23 career rushing touchdowns. 
Oregon has beaten Colorado each of the past five seasons - and none of the games have been close. The Ducks won by 34 points last season and by 41 two years ago. 
Colorado is slightly improved and Oregon is down from a year ago, but the gap still remains at double-digits plus Oregon is going to be highly motivated to get on track with a lopsided victory. 

Clemson led the nation in total defense last year and the Tigers have a top 10 defense again this season. The Tigers have held three opponents to less than 300 yards of total offense, including Louisville. Foes have converted less than 20 percent of the time against Clemson on third down. And remember Notre Dame is without its best running back and starting quarterback. This will be Notre Dame sophomore quarterback DeShone Kizer's first road start. 

Clemson also has lost key offensive starters, including their top receiver, and starting center who is not expected to play. Pass protection has been a problem for Clemson. The Tigers don't have an attack mentality - more of a we'll take what the defense gives approach which is good for under players. 

Notre Dame has a top 40 defense that held Texas to three points and Georgia Tech to 22 points. 

Another key here is weather. Heavy rain and wind are expected. That's going to keep the game plans conservative.  

These teams combined for 119 points last season when Cal nipped Washington State, 60-59. 
While I don't expect that many points this season, I do believe these teams will combine for more than 70 with a quarterback matchup of Luke Falk versus Jared Goff.
The Cougars' Falk has thrown for the most passing yards in the Pac-12 while Goff has passed for 1,240 yards and 11 touchdowns. Goff torched Washington State last year for 527 yards and five touchdowns - and that was in Pullman. 
Cal also is expected to get their best running back this week, Daniel Lasco. He's missed the last two games with a hip injury. 

Cal just nipped Washington State by one point last season when the Cougars missed an easy field goal. I believe the Cougars can hang with the Golden Bears again.
Washington State has one of the best quarterbacks on the West Coast in Luke Falk. He has a pair of excellent receivers. The Cougars hung 59 points and 812 yards on Cal last season. 
Washington State has improved its secondary and has a pair of good linebackers. 
This also is terrible spot for Cal. The Golden Bears are off big road victories against Texas and Washington. Up next after this game for Cal is a road matchup against Utah. It's going to be easy for Cal to take Washington State, a perennial bottom feeder in the Pac-12, for granted. 
Cal also has been a money-burner at home failing to cover in 17 of its last 23 home contests. 

Consecutive SEC losses to LSU and Mississippi State have left Auburn in an angry mood. Look for the Tigers to vent their frustrations on visiting San Jose State. This is a kill spot for the Tigers, who are stepping way down in class. 

It's not a secret that Auburn coach Gus Malzahn is seeking far better offensive production. That should come this week with Sean White getting more comfortable at quarterback and going against a much easier defense. San Jose State has failed to cover in its last six road games. 
The Spartans are making the long trip from the West Coast just for a fat paycheck. They don't figure to be competitive. The Spartans were blasted by Auburn, 59-13, last season. The line on that game was Auburn minus 33. Now we have a two-touchdown adjustment. It's too much especially considering the situation.
Not only is Auburn in a kill spot, but San Jose State is in a flat spot having just beat fellow Mountain West Conference rival Fresno State last week. The Spartans go back to Mountain West action next week playing UNLV. 
There also is a fatigue factor working against the Spartans as this is their third road game in four weeks.They didn't look good in road defeats to Air Force and Oregon State during this span. The Spartans' best player is running back Tyler Ervin. He rushed 42 times last week. There's no reason for the Spartans to overwork him in this non-league game especially if they fall far behind as anticipated. 

Take away Ben Roethlisberger and the Ravens are the better team. Much of the disadvantage of being the road team on a Thursday game is negated by the Ravens knowing the Steelers better than any team from their long-standing division rivalry and the short travel distance involved.
Still, I respect the rivalry aspect of this matchup. These teams have played a lot of games through the years that were determined by exactly three points. So with respect to that, I believe the best approach is to lay higher juice and take Baltimore on the money line - to win straight-up without laying any points.
The Ravens are in desperate straits at 0-3. Their defense is down this season, but it still is better than Pittsburgh's. The Steelers had a supreme gutty effort against the Rams last week, but that took tremendous effort and emotion. This short week hurts them. It also cuts down on the prep time for Michael Vick, who never was a quick study and now is so far past his prime that he looks finished. 
The Steelers are going to rely heavily on Le'Veon Bell. The Ravens know this. They haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher in 35 consecutive games. They'll be stacking the line daring the washed-up Vick to beat them. 
Joe Flacco is going to produce points. The Steelers have given up two or more touchdown passes in 11 of their last 13 games. The only quarterbacks not to throw multiple touchdown passes against the Steelers during this span were Nick Foles and Alex Smith. 

There are reasons why Detroit is 0-2. Namely the Lions' offense isn't clicking and their defense is much worse than last season. 
Matthew Stafford is far from 100 percent. Denver has the top pass defense in the league and has the pass rushers to take advantage of Detroit's banged-up, refurbished offensive line that hasn't played well. 
On defense the Lions are greatly missing the departed Ndamukong Suh and injured linebacker DeAndre Levy. The Lions surrendered 33 points, 28 first downs and 483 yards to San Diego in Week 1. Then last week the Lions allowed the Vikings 350 yards and 20 first downs. 
Peyton Manning doesn't possess the physical skills he had in his prime. But he's still perhaps the smartest quarterback in the game and is much better in the shotgun. That's the formation Manning should find himself in against the Lions after new Broncos coach Gary Kubiak made the mistake of putting Manning under center opening week. 
Detroit's run defense is down from a year ago. I see C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman producing their best games of the season, which will set up Manning for his still deadly play-action passes. The Broncos also run better out of the shotgun averaging 3.6 yards from that formation compared to 2.7 when Manning is under center. 

None of the last six games in this series have gone over the total. I see that trend continuing here. 
The Bills have a top-four defense. The Dolphins lack dynamic players at the skill positions and their best offensive lineman, left tackle Branden Albert, isn't likely to play due to a hamstring injury. Tailback Lamar Miller and tight end Jordan Cameron are banged-up, too, for Miami but I expect them to play. 
Buffalo led the NFL in sacks a year ago. Their defense is just as strong this season. The Bills defense is looking for redemption, too, after getting buried at home last week by the high-scoring Patriots. Miami is averaging 10.6 points its last three games against Buffalo.
Look for the Dolphins to show well defensively, too. Bill Belichick showed the blueprint on how to stop Tyrod Taylor and that's keep him in the pocket. This is Taylor's first road start in the NFL. The Dolphins' run defense should improve each game as Ndamukong Suh and his new teammates get more comfortable with each other. 

The Colts are out of the gates slow. But keep in mind they faced two of what I consider to be the top four defenses in football the Bills on the road and Jets where they suffered a turnover festival.
Do you really see Indy opening 0-3? I sure don't. The Colts are stepping way down in class against the Titans, a team they swept last season winning by an average of 20.5 points. The Colts have won the past seven in this series going 6-0-1 ATS.
The Titans defense was weak last season and has yet to face a good offense this season going against the Buccaneers and Browns. Even so the Titans surrendered two long touchdown passes to Johnny Manziel before the Browns went conservative. If Manziel can do that against the Titans, it's scary to think of what Luck can do against the Titans. 
The Colts have injuries in their secondary, but they do have their top cornerback, Vontae Davis, healthy enough to play. This is a kill spot for the Colts.