I can't see the Raiders staying within two touchdowns of Denver. The Broncos are averaging 30.6 points per game and are No. 2 in the NFL in passing. Peyton Manning is having another monster season on pace to throw for 5,144 yards and 44 touchdowns.

Rookie Derek Carr, devoid of weapons and saddled with the worst ground attack by far in the NFL, has no chance of keeping pace. The Raiders rank last in total yards and second-to-last in points per game. Only twice have the Raiders scored more than 14 points in a game.

Oakland's defense has recorded just eight sacks and gives up more than 26 points per game.

The prideful Broncos are in angry mood after an embarrassing road loss to the Patriots this past Sunday.

The Raiders could have the most overrated home field in the NFL. The Raiders have had just one winning ATS season at home since 2004. They haven't had a winning ATS mark as a home 'dog since 2009.

The Broncos have beaten the Raiders in Oakland the past three seasons by an average of 17.6 points.

Peyton Manning and his high-powered offense can generate seven touchdowns by themselves against a slow, over-the-hill Oakland secondary. The Raiders lack the pass rush to bother Manning.

Manning is having another huge year on pace to throw for 5,144 yards and 44 touchdowns. He'll be especially fired-up after the Broncos took a pounding last week at the Patriots.

The Raiders' passing attack is picking up under rookie Derek Carr. The Raiders can't run the ball and will be playing from behind so there should be lots of passing on their end. Carr has a big arm and is a vertical passer. This can result in big plays - and pick-six's.

The final score didn't reflect it, but New York's offense showed some life last week against Kansas City with Michael Vick a definite upgrade on Geno Smith. Vick and newcomer Percy Harvin had some chemistry and Chris Johnson had his finest game in a long time.

The Jets' offense is much better with Vick and it can take advantage of a mediocre Steelers defense that is down Troy Polamalu, Ike Taylor and Ryan Shazier.

The Steelers and red-hot Ben Roethlisberger certainly will take advantage of New York's porous secondary. Roethlisberger has thrown 14 touchdown passes in his last three games. The Steelers are averaging 41.3 points per game in their last three games. 

The Lions have the league's top defense, were idle last week and their offense will get heavily fortified with the expected return of Calvin Johnson, Reggie Bush and some of their banged-up tight ends.

Matthew Stafford is a much better quarterback when he has Johnson, who has missed the past three games and is anxious to have his usual big impact.

A big key, though, with backing the Lions besides their much improved defense is their new coaching staff headed by Jim Caldwell. The Lions are actually well coached for the first time in years. Caldwell has established discipline and a reduction on penalties and stupid decisions.

The Dolphins have a solid defense, too, but their offense can't match the Lions at the skill positions. Lamar Miller is Miami's best running back and he has a shoulder injury. Miller is just an average runner, but he's much better than what the Dolphins have behind him. 

The Lions rank first in the NFL in fewest yards per game and in scoring defense holding opponents to less than 16 points a game.

This is the Dolphins' only dome game and stiffest road challenge. Miami's other road games have been at Buffalo, Oakland in London, at Chicago and Jacksonville. The Bills are 1-3 ATS at home with their lone cover coming in a 29-10 win against the Dolphins. The Raiders have yet to win a game, while the Bears and Jaguars are a combined 1-6 at home.

Tulane's ground attack is underrated and its quarterback, Tanner Lee, is a veteran. So I'm expecting Tulane to get its share of points.

Houston, though, should put up a big number on a Green Wave defense surrendering nearly 30 points a game. Tulane hasn't been able to slow down good offenses giving up 38 to Cincinnati last week while also allowing 47 points to Duke and 31 to Rutgers. The Green Wave also gave up 38 points to Georgia Tech and Tulsa in overtime. Look for Houston to score in the high 30's. 

I like Houston's offense more since the Cougars made the quarterback switch to Greg Ward Jr., who gives them a running dimension to go with a passing attack. The Cougars are averaging 166 yards on the ground and have scored 15 touchdowns rushing in eight games.

Georgia put up 59 points on Kentucky last year and is averaging 40.5 points per game and 440 yards. The Bulldogs do this with a balanced attack that Kentucky is going to have problems handling.

Georgia's run defense sprung a leak last week giving up more than 400 yards on the ground to Florida. Kentucky's offense is better this season with Patrick Towles at quarterback. The Wildcats are averaging 29.2 points per game and 407.8 yards. They have good depth at running back.

The Bulldogs have gone over in seven of their last eight SEC games and have gone over the total in 11 of their last 14 following a loss.

These two teams have had it rough so expect a free-wheeling matchup with nothing to lose. SMU has struggled offensively. However, the Mustangs are off a bye and facing a Tulsa defense that ranks 122nd in scoring defense giving up 40.6 points a game and is 115th in yards allowed at 486.2.

Garrett Krstich is the best quarterback SMU has and he's playing now. He should be able to put up points against this weak of a defensive opponent.

Tulsa is going to get a boatload of points, too, as the Mustangs have allowed at least 41 points to every opponent. SMU ranks last in the nation in points allowed per game at 48 and is last in yards given up at 550. Tulsa is a respectable 52nd in yards gained per game at 430.5.

The over has cashed in five of SMU's last six games as the oddsmaker isn't sure what to do with such a bad team. The over has also cashed in eight of Tulsa's last nine games. The Golden Hurricane have gone over in their last six home contests.

Cleveland's 5-3 record looks fancy on the surface, but the Browns aren't good enough to keep within a touchdown against a superior opponent in this setting.

The Browns last three games have come against the three worst teams in the NFL - Jaguars, Raiders and Buccaneers. Cleveland lost to the Jaguars by 18 points and didn't have an easy time with either the Raiders or Buccaneers nearly losing to one-win Tampa Bay last week. 

This is the Browns' first national TV game of the season. It comes on a short week on the road against probably the best team in the AFC North. The Browns have lost 17 consecutive division road games having last beaten an AFC North club away from home in 2008.

The Bengals are 13-0-1 SU and 12-1-1 ATS in their last 14 games at Paul Brown Stadium. They have covered 82 percent of their past 18 home games.

Brian Hoyer needs an effective ground attack to be effective. The Browns haven't had that in their last three games since losing star center Alex Mack. Cleveland has averaged just 52.6 yards rushing during this time span. The Browns also are going to be missing their best receiving threat, tight end Jordan Cameron.

The Bengals have their best playmaker back in A.J. Green. He makes Andy Dalton much better. Even if Giovani Bernad can't play, the Bengals still have power back Jeremy Hill to exploit the Browns' 31st rush defense.

The weather is going to be fine and so should these two offenses.

The Colts finally turned Andrew Luck loose this season and he's responded by putting up the most passing yards and second-most touchdown throws in the NFL.

The Giants have a decent secondary, but not enough to cover all of Luck's weapons, which are expected to increase tonight with Reggie Wayne back to health. The Giants entered this week yielding the sixth-most years per game at 384.4 per game, including 262.4 through the air. New York's run defense took a hit with the departure of middle linebacker Jon Beason for the season.

The Giants are looking to get more aggressive on offense now that their offensive line and Eli Manning are playing better. The Colts were torched for 522 yards and six touchdowns through the air in their last game by Ben Roethlisberger.

The over has cashed in each of the Colts' last five road games.

The Steelers' balanced offense is rolling averaging 40.5 points in their last two games. Ben Roethlisberger has never been hotter. Martavis Bryant has stepped up to give the Steelers a tall wide receiving option to go with Antonio Brown.

Baltimore is without its top defensive back, cornerback Jimmy Smith. That leaves the Ravens without a strong cover person to handle Brown, who is an absolute game-changer with 60 receptions for 852 yards and seven touchdowns.

The Ravens' defense is far less intimidating when playing on the road. Baltimore has covered just one of its last five away contests and is 1-6-1 ATS during its last eight games versus AFC foes.

Pittsburgh has covered seven of its last 10 home games and has revenge for am embarrassing 26-6 loss to the Ravens in Week 2. The Steelers have changed up a lot of things since that defeat and are in a much better place now.

The Steelers' defense has been reinforced with the return of nose tackle Steve McLendon and good-looking rookie linebacker Ryan Shazier.

These two rivals usually play defensive-minded games, but things are different this time around. Pittsburgh's defense is down ranking 16th in yards allowed, giving up more than six yards per play and recording only 12 sacks.

The Ravens' defense is far less intimidating on the road and will be minus cornerback Jimmy Smith, their best player in their secondary.

It's a bad time for the Ravens to be without Smith as Ben Roethlisberger is the hottest he has ever been. Roethlisberger has found a tall target, too, in Martavis Bryant to go with Antonio Brown on the flanks. Pittsburgh has put up 81 points in its last two games.

The Ravens are going to score big, too. Baltimore running backs Justin Forsett and Bernard Pierce gashed the Steelers for 152 yards on 30 carries - a 5.0 yard per carry - in the first meeting won by Baltimore, 26-6, in Week 2. The Steelers give up 4.6 yards per rush and do their worst against zone-running scheme teams like Baltimore.

Joe Flacco has a big arm and can take advantage of a vulnerable Steelers secondary that has allowed the second-most 20-yard plus plays in the NFL.

The 49ers are rested and ready to pummel the Rams, a team they beat by two touchdowns just three weeks ago despite playing far from their "A" game.

The Rams are decimated by injuries. They were missing their two starting cornerbacks this past Sunday against the Chiefs. They had to use a sixth-round rookie and an undrafted rookie. The 49ers can take advantage with their deep crop of veteran wide receivers.

Then against the Chiefs, the Rams lost their leading receiver, Brian Quick, and three starting offensive linemen, including left tackle Jake Long.

Austin Davis is struggling as the league studies more film on him. He is playing behind a makeshift offensive line with below average wide receivers and a disappointing ground attack.

The Rams stole a game against the Seahawks two weeks ago by coming up with trick plays on special teams. That's not going to work against fiery Jim Harbaugh and his well-coached, veteran 49ers team.

I'm not a fan of the Texans. They have been outgained by an average of nearly 30 yards per game and have played a weak schedule. Their victories have come against the Redskins opening week with a rusty Robert Griffin III at quarterback, Raiders, Bills with E.J. Manuel at quarterback and Titans with rookie Zach Mettenberger making his first pro start.

Aside from Arian Foster, J.J. Watt and a declining Andre Johnson the Texans really don't have much. Ryan Fitzpatrick is one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league and heavily turnover prone. He's committed eight turnovers in his last six games.

The Eagles represent a step up for the Texans. The Eagles' offensive line is getting healthier and their ground game has picked up with LeSean McCoy rushing for 232 yards in his last two games. Nick Foles isn't nearly as good as his 2013 statistics, but he's better than he's shown lately. His game will pick up since the Eagles' offensive line is getting back to full strength.

It has been 21 games since the Eagles last lost two in a row.

Philadelphia's defense is improving, helped by the return of linebacker Mychal Kendricks. The Eagles also hold a special teams edge. They have seven defensive/special teams touchdowns while their opposition has yet to put up a defensive or special teams score.

The Eagles won't lack for motivation either in this non-conference matchup with eight former Texans on their roster, including linebackers DeMeco Ryans and Connor Barwin.

UCLA has been overrated all season and its overpriced again in this matchup. The Bruins have covered only one of eight games and is 1-4 ATS in their last five home contests. If you discount a 35-point win against Arizona State, the Bruins' average win margin in their other five victories is 4.6 points. Arizona is better than any of those foes the Bruins have narrowly beaten.

Arizona has lost only once - and that was against USC right after the Wildcats sprung their huge upset of Oregon. The Wildcats are 3-0 SU and ATS on the road.

Freshman quarterback Anu Solomon is coming on for Arizona. He threw five touchdown passes in sparking the Wildcats past Washington State, 59-37, on the road last week. The Wildcats' running backs are getting healthy and can take advantage of a UCLA defense that has given up more than 200 yards on the ground in three of its last four games.

The Bruins' pass defense is worse than their run defense ranking 105th. UCLA quarterback Brett Hundley hasn't had the monster year some were envisioning.

The Irish were idle last week. That's huge for a pair of reasons. It gives the Irish two weeks to stew over a bitter 31-27 road loss to second-ranked Florida State and gives them ample time to prepare for Navy's unique option offense.

I see Notre Dame having a big game here. Navy leads the nation in rushing, but has no ability to come back from a big deficit since the Midshipmen lack any semblance of a passing attack.

But will Notre Dame be able to build up a big lead? I see it happening. The Irish still have playoff incentive and they will be highly motivated after Navy nearly upset them at home last year while drawing Brian Kelly's anger for throwing chop blocks. The Irish lost several defensive linemen in that game because of those controversial blocks. Kelly hasn't forgotten.

The previous two years - 2011 and 2012 - Notre Dame beat Navy by a combined margin of 82 points.

Sparked by quarterback Everett Golson, Notre Dame is averaging nearly 450 yards on offense. Golson has accounted for 23 touchdowns with just six interceptions. Navy gives up 27.6 points per game and 411.5 yards of offense. The Midshipmen have only three sacks and just eight takeaways.

Notre Dame ranks 12th in run defense. The Irish have experience handling Navy's option attack. They had breakdowns last year against it because of numerous defensive line injuries that were inflicted during the game.

The Midshipmen don't have the athletes Notre Dame has, nor the depth. I can see them wearing down. Note, too, this isn't a true home game for Navy as it's being played in Landover, Md.

San Jose State's defensive strength is pass defense. They are 119th versus the run. That's a big plus for Rams running back Dee Hart. But Colorado State's passing offense trumps San Jose State's pass defense, too.

Colorado State Garrett Grayson has a 21-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 65.3 completion percentage. He also has one of the best wide receivers in the country, Rashard Higgins. He's put together four straight receiving games of at least 170 yards. Higgins has scored 12 touchdowns and is averaging more than 19 yards per catch.

Quarterback Joe Gray is coming on for San Jose State. The Rams rank 80th in yards allowed. So the Spartans are going to put up their share of points.

Nebraska averages more than 41 points per game. The Cornhuskers have been right near that average in their last two games averaging 40 points against Northwestern and Rutgers. Now the Cornhuskers face a weak Purdue defense that gives up 31.2 points per game and 429.2 yards. The Boilermakers rank 11th and 12th in the Big Ten in those two most important defensive categories.

Ameer Abdullah is in the Heisman Trophy talk. The Nebraska running back leads the nation in rushing and is second in rushing touchdowns with 17. Purdue has yielded 6.1 yards per rush during its last two games.

The Boilermakers have enough versatile players on offense to put up their share of points to help push this total over. Purdue has some decent backs and is averaging better than 28 points per game. The Boilermakers have gone over in four of their last five road contests.

West Virginia held Baylor and Oklahoma State to well below their season averages during the last two weeks. The Mountaineers are capable of holding TCU to far below its 50.4 scoring average, too, being at home in what could be less than ideal playing conditions.

Rain is expected possibly turning to snow. Wind could factor, too, with the forecast being for breezes in the 15-20 mph range.

TCU's offense draws all the attention. But the Horned Frogs have a strong defense, too. They rank among the leaders in the high-scoring Big 12 giving up 21.6 points per game and 132.3 rushing yards. Only 30 teams in the country give up fewer points per game than the Horned Frogs, which is especially impressive given their schedule.

All streaks must come to an end. I see the Packers ending New Orleans' 19-game home winning streak under Sean Payton and 13-game home winning streak on national TV in this prime time Sunday Night matchup.

I have no doubts that Payton will have the Saints fired-up. But New Orleans isn't as good, nor playing nearly as well as Green Bay. The Packers have taken their game up a notch behind the flawless play of Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay is averaging 36.3 and 352.5 yards per game during the last four weeks - all victories.

The Saints defense has looked far more like their record-worst defense of two years ago than last year. Their secondary is weak especially without injured Jarius Byrd and prey to Rodgers, who has thrown 17 touchdown passes with no interceptions his last six games. The Saints rank 28th in points allowed and pass defense. Rodgers has a multitude of weapons with the emergence of rookie Davon Adams joining Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb plus a solid ground attack to keep things balanced.

New Orleans is 2-4 and its record isn't a fluke. The Saints' only two victories were lackluster home wins at home against the Vikings, where rookie Teddy Bridgewater was making his first start, and versus the Buccaneers in overtime. Those two teams are a combined 3-10.

Green Bay's defense isn't as good as it's offense and cornerback Sam Shields is out. But the Packers may have the most depth of any secondary in the NFL.

Drew Brees is having a down year by his lofty standards. The Saints have a cluster injury problem at running back, their wide receivers aren't as good as Green Bay's and star tight end Jimmy Graham has been reduced to decoy status because of a shoulder injury. Brees also is without injured center Jonathan Goodwin.

There is nothing wrong with Seattle's offense. In fact, it's better than it was last year as Russell Wilson is improved and his offensive line is healthy.

The Panthers have fallen apart on defense due to the suspension of Greg Hardy and a horrendous secondary that was put together on the cheap. Carolina has given up 38, 30, 24, 37 and 38 points in its last five games.

I see Seattle's defense and special teams playing better after an embarrassing loss to the Rams last week. The Panthers have a cluster injury problem at running back and are missing both of their starting guards.

The Seahawks get a lot of publicity for their great home record, but they have also covered nine of their last 13 on the road/neutral site games.

The Titans have formally given up on their season with word coming out that Ken Whisenhunt is going to start rookie sixth-round pick Zach Mettenberger at quarterback.

Mettenberger isn't ready and he lacks the mobility to cover up his mistakes. His life is going to be made miserable by J.J. Watt and possibly Jadeveon Clowney, who is tentatively due back this week. The Titans rank 29th in points scored and 27th in total yards. Mettenberger doesn't have a lot of weapons to help him.

The Titans have lost a number of key defensive players. They are giving up 24.6 points per game and that number could rise. This is a matchup that Ryan Fitzpatrick can manage relying on stud running back Arian Foster, who already has five 100-yard rushing games.

Tennessee is 1-8-2 ATS in its last 11 home games.

Away from Georgia Dome, the Falcons have dropped 11 of their last 12, going 3-9 ATS. Atlanta has lost its last seven away games by double-digits. Don't look for the Falcons to correct their problems with this game in London.

Matt Ryan has no time to throw. His offensive line is decimated. The Falcons will be going through their fifth different starting offensive line with this matchup after losing their starting center, Peter Konz, for the season. Ryan doesn't have a reliable ground game to fall back on either. Steven Jackson is Atlanta's lead runner and he's well past his prime.

The Lions' defense has become dominant particularly their front four. Detroit has held five of its seven opponents to 17 points or less while ranking first or second in total defense, run defense and scoring defense.

The Falcons' defense is far weaker ranking 30th in yards given up and points allowed. The statistics don't lie. The Falcons have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Their earlier home victories against New Orleans and Tampa Bay don't look so good now given the struggles those two teams are having.

Even if Calvin Johnson doesn't play, the Lions have enough weapons with Matthew Stafford, Reggie Bush and Golden Tate to take advantage of such a weak opposing defense. The Lions also have solved their kicking problems with the signing of Matt Prater.

I get that traveling to Hawaii and staying at Waikiki, which Nevada is doing, is a real road challenge. It's a six-hour flight from Reno and Waikiki is the cultural and social hub of Honolulu. Most visiting teams stay on the other side of the island to avoid the temptations of Waikiki, but the Wolf Pack couldn't book a hotel there.

I get all that. And so does the oddsmaker and marketplace judging by such a short point spread. But that doesn't erase the fact that Nevada is a much better team than Hawaii and match up extremely well to the Rainbow Warriors.

The Wolf Pack are coming off a huge come-from-behind, confidence-soaring road win against BYU. That pushed them to 4-3 and puts them in bowl contention. There isn't going to be a letdown because the Wolf Pack can't afford it.

Nevada's three losses have occurred to Arizona, Colorado State and Boise State. Those three schools are a combined 16-5. Nevada has covered five of its past six road contests.

Hawaii is 6-25 in three years under Norm Chow. The Rainbow Warriors' offense can't keep up with Nevada quarterback Cody Fajardo, one of the best multi-purpose quarterbacks in the country. Hawaii ranks 112th in scoring and 110th in yards per game. The Rainbow Warriors have failed to score more than 14 points in three of their last four games.

Nevada is weak in the secondary, but Hawaii lacks the passing attack to take advantage. The Rainbow Warriors also won't have running back Joey Iosefa, who is under suspension for a DUI arrest. They can't come close to matching Nevada's firepower.

J.T. Barrett and the Buckeyes are rolling scoring 56, 52, 50 and 66 points in their last four games while going above 500 yards of offense in each game. Barrett has been more than adequate replacing Broxton Miller. Barrett's touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last four games is an insane 17-to-1.

Penn State has thin depth and is wearing down. The Nittany Lions aren't going to be able to slow down the Buckeyes. Ohio State put up 63 points on the Nittany Lions last year.

Penn State, though, has an outstanding quarterback, Christian Hackenberg. He leads the Big Ten in passing and can keep the Nittany Lions in the game.

Texas is getting better offensively and worse defensively. Sophomore Longhorns QB Tyrone Swoopes is showing much improvement. He's passed for 334 and 321 yards during the past two games. The Longhorns scored 48 points and put up 512 yards of offense last week versus Iowa State.

Kansas State isn't flashy with QB Jake Waters. But the Wildcats are going to get their points. K-State averages 39.2 points per game and leads the Big 12 in third-down conversions.

Waters is overshadowed by other quarterbacks in the conference, but he is highly efficient both throwing and running. Waters has completed better than 65 percent of his throws and also leads the Wildcats in rushing.

K-State averages 4.6 yards per rush and has scored 19 touchdowns on the ground. Texas allowed 200 yards rushing to BYU, UCLA and Baylor. Then against Iowa State last week, the Longhorns gave up 345 yards and three touchdowns through the air. 

The combination of K-State's efficient and reliable offense plus Texas' improved quarterback play and defensive regression makes this an over play.

The Badgers are the No. 2 rushing team in the nation. Melvin Gordon is averaging 217 yards rushing in his last four games. He's in the argument for best running back in the country. Maryland ranks 104th in rush defense.

The Terrapins are not going to be able to stop Wisconsin's ground attack. The Badgers have mediocre quarterbacks, but they'll be able to pick and choose their spots effectively against Maryland.

The Terrapins are capable of trading points with Wisconsin with multi-purpose quarterback C.J. Brown. The Terrapins also have a top receiver in Stefon Diggs and an outstanding place-kicker in Brad Craddock, who has made 18 consecutive field goals. Maryland has dangerous kick/punt returners, too, and Wisconsin has a line drive punter.

Miami's Brad Kaaya is one of the best freshmen quarterbacks in the country - when he's playing at home. On the road, though, the Hurricanes are 0-3 and Kaaya has been picked off twice in each of his road games. The Hurricanes have lost at Louisville, Nebraska and Georgia Tech by an average of 13 points failing to cover any of those matchups.

Blacksburg is as tough a venue as any road matchup the Hurricanes will have. Virginia Tech has covered 10 of the last 13 meetings against Miami. Virginia Tech has defeated Miami the past three times at home, winning by an average of 19 points. The Hurricanes also are 2-8 ATS during their past 10 Atlantic Coast Conference games.

Early money has come against Virginia Tech, which has some injuries on defense and at running back. The Hokies are off a sloppy 21-16 road loss to Pittsburgh last Thursday. But I see a strong bounce back effort from the Hokies following a shake-up on the offensive line.

Virginia Tech's savvy defensive coordinator Bud Foster is a master at coming up with complex schemes to befuddle young quarterbacks such as Kaaya. The Hokies rank No. 2 in the country in sacks and are 23rd in pass defense. So Foster has good chess pieces.

The Hokies have two other factors in their favor. They are used to playing on Thursday covering 69 percent of their last 29 Thursday games. Virginia Tech also is known for exceptionally strong special teams. The Hokies' vaunted special teams help turn around last year's game, which Virginia Tech won, 42-24, in Miami. The Hurricanes are not strong on special teams and are breaking in a new long snapper.

The Steelers haven't lost a home game on Monday night since 1991 and I expect them to win this game by more than a field goal.

Pittsburgh holds a huge edge at quarterback and its defense, which has been disappointing, will be super fired-up after being called soft by former players and coaches.

The Steelers' defense is far from dominant like it has been, but it still ranked in the upper half entering this week in total defense, rushing and passing. Pittsburgh also is going against one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league, Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Fitzpatrick is a journeyman, game-manager who is turnover prone. He has a 3-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last four games. He has turned the ball over 10 times this season. The Texans entered Week 7 ranked 28th in passing.

The Texans have struggled when facing elite quarterbacks. In their last two games, they've allowed 694 yards through the air in losing to Tony Romo and the Cowboys and Andrew Luck and the Colts.

Houston's previous two victories came against the Bills quarterbacked by E.J. Manuel and the Raiders quarterbacked by Derek Carr. I don't see the Texans stopping Ben Roethlisberger.

Houston is just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 AFC matchups.

PROP RECOMMENDATIONS

I'm looking to fade Ryan Fitzpatrick on various props. One prop at the Westgate has Fitzpatrick's passing yards at over/under 222.5. I like under.

The Texans are a run-first team even when they are behind. Their coaching staff knows Fitzpatrick is a game-manager not a gunslinger. Fitzpatrick has gone under 222.5 yards in four of Houston's six games. He has averaged 183 yards in his last two games.

It wouldn't be a shock either if Fitzpatrick didn't finish the game. There has been talk about making a quarterback switch in Houston.

San Francisco has too many injuries on defense to keep it close against Peyton Manning. Since Manning joined Denver, the Broncos have won 17 of 19 regular season home games. Manning has thrown 59 touchdown passes in the 19 games.

This also is a tough situational spot for the 49ers, traveling on a short week after having played on the road this past Monday against the Rams.

Denver has upgraded its defense ranking fourth in fewest yards allowed and fifth in run defense. The 49ers need to run to be successful and they are averaging just 3.6 yards per carry on the road compared to 4.7 at home.

An all-out focused effort should be forthcoming from the Seahawks after suffering a rare home loss this past Sunday.

The Rams are the youngest team in the NFL down to their third-string quarterback, Austin Davis, and with a disappointing ground attack.

The Seahawks rank sixth in run defense. Davis has a big arm, but lacks accuracy and has a below average receiving core.

The Rams have only one sack, rank 26th in run defense and are giving up 30 points a game. They are on a short week after melting down at home this past Monday night in a loss to the 49ers.

The Seahawks get a lot of attention for being near invincible at home, but they are 11-3-1 ATS during their past 14 road games. Russell Wilson is one of the most mobile quarterbacks in the league. He'll be able to avoid the Rams' frequent blitzes while Marshawn Lynch takes advantage of the Rams' below average run defense.

Any time I see a total of less than 60 in a Conference USA game, I think over the total. I especially like this Conference USA matchup to go over. North Texas is a strong running team. Southern Mississppi ranks 120th in run defense. The Mean Green are averaging more than 32 points per game while surrendering more than 30 a game. North Texas gave up 42 points to Louisiana Tech and 56 to UAB in earlier Conference USA matchups. Southern Mississippi hasn't been much better on defense against Conference USA foes yielding 41 points to Rice and 37 to Middle Tennessee. Last year, North Texas put up 55 points on Southern Mississippi. The key is if the Golden Eagles will contribute their share of points to pushing this total over. I believe they will. Golden Eagles QB Nick Mullens is off his best game. He was 36-of-54 for 426 yards and three touchdowns on the road against Middle Tennessee. The over has cashed in 16 of Southern Mississippi's last 21 road games.

Both teams were idle last week giving them extra planning and adding new wrinkles to their respective offenses, which have been quite good. Let's start with Rutgers and its excellent quarterback Gary Nova. He's averaging close to 270 yards passing a game with a 60 percent completion rate and 13 touchdown throws. He has two reliable running backs in Paul James and Desmon Peoples. Ohio State's secondary is suspect. I see Nova hooking up frequently with Leonte Caroo and taking advantage of that. On the flip side, Ohio State quarterback T.J. Barrett is coming on. He's more than adequately replaced injured Braxton Miller. Barrett set a school record with a 14-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last three games. Like Miller, Barrett can both pass and run. He's completed a Big Ten-best 66.2 percent of his throws and also is the team's second leading rusher with 276 yards. Thanks in large part to Barrett, the Buckeyes have put up three consecutive 500-yard games. They are the No. 5 scoring team in the country at 44.6 points per game.

Tulane is well coached and competitive on defense. The Green Wave held Connecticut to 217 yards of offense and three points last week.
 
I wasn't impressed with Central Florida's performance last week having to go overtime at home to defeat BYU, which was playing without its starting quarterback.
 
Tulane has a top runner, Sherman Badie, who can keep the chains moving and the clock running. He averages 7.2 yards per rush. Central Florida doesn't play up-tempo either, which is good for an underdog catching this many points.
 
Badie can take advantage of Central Florida's run defense, which ranks 114th.
 
The Green Wave have covered in their last eight October games and are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games versus foes with a winning home mark.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Temple is well coached, limits its mistakes, is highly opportunistic and has a good quarterback.

Houston is inconsistent, has made a quarterback change and lost its best defensive player last week, senior linebacker Derrick Mathews.

The Owls are 4-1 with only a seven-point loss to Navy. An upset win against Houston and the Owls can actually start talking about going to a bowl. This is a rare nationally televised game for the Owls and a revenge game, too.

I consider Matt Rhule one of the best young head coaches in the country. His Owls have covered in their last six road games. Houston, on the other hand, is 1-4 ATS in its last five home contests. Rhule will have Temple prepared for this matchup. 

Both teams have shown strong defenses and a great ability to come up with takeaways. Temple allows only 14.4 points per game and leads the nation in red zone defense.

The Owls will be dealing with Greg Ward Jr. under center. He's making his second career start at quarterback having switched from receiver replacing John O'Korn. Ward is without the Cougars' second-leading receiver, Daniel Spencer. He suffered a knee injury during practice last week.

The Cougars are holding foes to 19.2 points a game, but the loss of Mathews is huge. Temple quarterback P.J. Walker is 97-for-157 for 1,099 yards and nine touchdowns. He has a reliable target in Jalen Fitzpatrick and underrated running backs.

The Owls have come up with five defensive touchdowns and two special teams scores. This is a step up for them. But they have the talent, coaching and motivation to spring the upset.

Colin Kaepernick is at his best when his ground game is going smoothly. That will be the case in this matchup. The 49ers rank No. 3 in rushing thanks to a hot Frank Gore, who has rushed for 299 yards while averaging 4.9 yards per carry during his last four games. Gore has had some of his best performances against the Rams, having scored 14 touchdowns against them while running for more than 1,100 yards.

St. Louis permits nearly 30 points a game and is second-to-last in stopping the run. The Rams have allowed 100-yard rushers in three of their last four games.

Don't be fooled by the Rams ranking No. 1 in pass defense. Their secondary actually isn't very good at all. They've faced the fewest pass attempts per game. Opposing quarterbacks have completed close to 71 percent of their throws against the Rams. The Rams are last in the league in sacks, too, with just one.

San Francisco owns the superior offense and defense. The 49ers are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 road and neutral site games, not including playing in Seattle.

The 49ers are No. 3 in rushing. St. Louis is 31st in run defense giving up an average of 152.5 yards per game on the ground. The 49ers have upgraded their receiving weapons and star tight end Vernon Davis should be a go. The Rams only have one sack. Colin Kaepernick will be able to pick his spots off play-action.

The Rams' offense has picked up under Austin Davis, who gets better with each game. Davis, unlike many other backups, is a gunslinger not a game manager. He's not afraid to throw long. This is good for the over. So is the game being played on a fast track inside a dome stadium.

San Francisco is missing a number of key defenders. The 49ers' defense is down from the last couple of seasons.

Both teams have excellent place-kickers, but are weak in coverage so special teams should be good, too, for the over.

I see the Cowboys getting exposed here. Dallas has reeled off four straight victories - beating three weak teams (Titans, Rams and Texans in overtime at home) and underachieving Saints.
 
Now the Cowboys go on the road for their only away matchup in a six-week span. No team is tougher at home than Seattle, which is 19-1 SU and 15-5 ATS in its last 20 at CenturyLink Field with an average winning margin of more than 15 points.
 
DeMarco Murray is having an MVP-type season. His great running has kept Dallas' horrendous defense off the field. Murray, though, is going to find it tough running on Seattle's top-ranked rush defense. The physical Seahawks secondary figures to make things round on turnover-prone Tony Romo.
 
Russell Wilson will be able to take advantage of Dallas' lack of coverage skills from its linebackers and safeties. The Cowboys also are down injured cornerback Morris Claiborne.
 
Arian Foster ran wild on Dallas last week. Marshawn Lynch certainly is capable of doing that, too.
 

The Bengals aren't expected to have their best offensive player, wide receiver A.J. Green. But Cincinnati is expected to have back star linebacker Vontaze Burfict.

The Panthers' defense has shown signs of coming around. It's certainly not nearly as good as it was last year, but it's better than it has shown so far.

Cincinnati is down several receiving weapons with Green, Marvin Jones and Tyler Eifert not expected to play. The Bengals are going to be running the ball more than normal here, which eats clock.

The Panthers are a run-first team, but have a cluster injury at running back. Cam Newton isn't 100 percent and is making the adjustment to being a pocket passer, which has reduced his dynamics. He's also facing a strong defense that has allowed just 17 points in two home games, including one against the high octane Falcons.

The 85-degree heat and humidity could factor here. Certainly the Packers are not used to that kid of weather.
 
Aaron Rodgers is starting to hit his stride with back-to-back huge games. That was against familar division rivals, Chicago and Minnesota. Those are two teams Rodgers historically has lit up.
 
Now, though, Rodgers is going against the Dolphins, who have one of the best defensive lines in football made even better with tackle Randy Starks expected back from injury. Starks, Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon all can apply tremendous quarterback pressure, which is needed to throw Rodgers off his rhythm.
 
Miami head coach Joe Philbin knows Rodgers well having been Green Bay's offensive coordinator from 2007-2011 before taking the Dolphins job. Miami should have a solid defensive game plan with an extra week of preparation following a bye.
 
The Packers' defense has been showing signs of improving. The secondary is deep and facing a mediocre Miami offense that has finished 27th each of the last two seasons and is middle of the road this year even after padding its numbers two weeks ago against the Raiders.
 
The Dolphins figure to stay on the ground a lot in this matchup, which keeps the clocking moving and is a plus for the under.
 
 

Alabama is a bit down this season, but still has national championship hopes. One loss doesn't change that. Two losses would so the Crimson Tide certainly will be up for this game.

Alabama has dominated Arkansas winning the past seven times, including 52-0 each of the last two seasons. The Crimson Tide led Arkansas, 42-0, midway through the third quarter last year. There is a huge psychological edge because of that in Alabama's favor.

I don't see things having changed that drastically this season where the Tide won't win comfortably again. Alabama is vulnerable to spread offenses that play fast. That's not Arkansas' style.

Alabama has covered 11 of its past 13 games in October.

The combination of Notre Dame being overrated and in a terrible situation spot puts me on North Carolina.
 
The Irish are off a huge dramatic home win against physical Stanford and next week they play at top-ranked Florida State. So it's going to be easy for the Irish to overlook North Carolina.
 
The Tar Heels came on strong at the end of last season going 6-1. They won their first two games this season, but have lost three in a row and are off a bad 34-17 home loss to Virginia Tech. So this is a huge game for the future of Tar Heels coach Larry Fedora. 
 
North Carolina can score ranking 35th and 36th in passing yards behind Marquise Williams. Notre Dame has trouble against running quarterbacks. The Tar Heels have covered eight of the last 11 times following a double-digit loss.
 
Everett Golson still looks rusty to me after missing last year. The Irish don't have a lot of explosiveness. Given the spot, I don't see the Irish covering this high of a number.
 
 
 
 
 

Cincinnati's defense is terrible and Miami's defense can't be trusted.

The Bearcats are giving up an average of 45.5 points in their last two games. They can't stop opponents on the ground, nor in the air ranking 121st and 123rd. They are not going to be able to handle Miami's star running back Duke Johnson, which is going to open things up for the Hurricanes' passing attack. The Hurricanes average nearly 35 points when playing at home.

Cincinnati lost its starting quarterback, but has an experienced backup in Munchie Legaux. The Bearcats can score, too, averaging just under 33 points a game.

The Gophers have covered their past seven Big Ten games and need this game if they want to be a serious factor in the Big Ten race.

I'm not sold on Northwestern even though the Wildcats have upset Penn State and Wisconsin during the past two weeks. The Badgers were done in by poor quarterback play as much as Northwestern. The Wildcats are just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games. They don't have the depth and front line talent to pull off a third straight Big Ten upset.

While the Wildcats are in a celebration mood after defeating Wisconsin, Minnesota was idle last week. The Gophers' 30-7 road loss to TCU doesn't look so bad now that the Horned Frogs knocked off Oklahoma this past weekend.

Minnesota is better than Northwestern, is at home and in the better spot. Add it all up and the Gophers easily win by more than a field goal.

This is much more important matchup for Central Florida following BYU's loss to Utah State last week.

That loss cost the Cougars a shot at an unbeaten season and bigger bowl game. They are now locked into the inaugural Miami Bowl. It also cost them dynamic quarterback Taysom Hill.

Backup Cougars QB Christian Stewart has to go into enemy territory facing a pass rush that has recorded 11 sacks in its last 2 games.

This is a cross country road trip for the Cougars on a short week into weather they are not used to - 84 degrees with high humidity.

Central Florida has covered seven of the past nine times when facing a foe with a winning record. The Golden Knights also are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games.

There is no Super Bowl hangover for the Seahawks. They are just as good this season if not better than 2013.

Washington's statistics were highly inflated during Weeks 2 and 3 because the Redskins built them against the Jaguars and Eagles defenses. This, along with playing the Texans and Ryan Fitzpatrick in Week 1, inflated the Redskins' defensive stats, too.

Truth be told, the Redskins' defense isn't much better than last year and no longer has cornerback DeAngelo Hall. The Redskins' secondary is highly vulnerable and their linebackers can't cover Percy Harvin. If you discount their performance against overmatched Chad Henne, the Redskins have managed just one sack. In their last two games, the Redskins have allowed Nick Foles and Eli Manning, who had been in a slump, to complete a combined 55 of 80 passes for 625 yards and seven touchdowns with just one interception.

Kirk Cousins is a very limited, systems quarterback. He was exposed by the Giants in Washington's last game, a brutal 45-14 home loss. Cousins was picked off four times, three of which came when he wasn't even being pressured. Cousins now faces the premier defense and secondary in the league that is rested following a bye.

Last year, the Seahawks played stronger run defense on the road than at home giving up 3.7 yards away from CenturyLink Field compared to 4.2 yards a carry at home. This year, the Seahawks are holding opponents to 2.8 yards on the ground while on the road and 2.7 when at home. Bad news for Alfred Morris. Cousins isn't nearly the playmaker needed against this elite defense if he doesn't have ground support, or respect off play-action.

The Seahawks also are riding an eight-game winning streak on Monday night. 

The 49ers have yet to play their "A" game, while the Chiefs looked fantastic in demolishing the Patriots at home this past Monday.

All of this has made this a cheap number to lay with San Francisco. The Chiefs are traveling to the West Coast on a short week off a big emotional victory. It's a bad setting for them. Even with their victory over the Patriots, the Chiefs are still just 4-8 in their last 12 games. 

The 49ers' defense is down a notch due to injuries and suspensions. They can be passed on - but not by Alex Smith and his pedestrian receivers. The 49ers are well acquainted with their former teammate knowing his full limitations, which are many. Smith also will be without his second-best wide receiver, Donnie Avery.

The Chiefs need to run the ball, but the 49ers have gotten very stingy against the run holding their last three opponents to an average of 2.4 yards per rush.

On the flip side, the 49ers should have success against a Chiefs run defense that has allowed opposing backs to average 5.3 yards per attempt. The Chiefs are missing their best linebacker, Derrick Johnson, and best defensive back with safety Eric Berry declared out due to a high ankle sprain.

The 49ers have gone back to their bread-and-butter, which is Frank Gore. His running sets up Colin Kaepernick and his upgraded receiving corps. That's the way it should be not the other way around, which Jim Harbaugh has figured out. During the first three weeks, the Chiefs gave up six touchdown passes without an interception. Their secondary is highly vulnerable. 

The Broncos haven't played that well yet still have managed to beat the Colts and Chiefs each by seven points at home.

Denver has covered 13 of its last 18 regular-season home games when favored since 2012.

Peyton Manning should be able to exploit the soft underbelly of the Cardinals, who are down key linebackers from last year and have no pass rush minus Darnell Dockett and John Abraham. Arizona only has three sacks on the season.

Backup Drew Stanton is a downgrade from Carson Palmer more game manager than downfield attacker. He is not going to be able to keep up with Manning.

The Broncos have upgraded both their run defense and pass defense from a year ago.

Now that Colts offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton has taken the shackles off Andrew Luck the Colts are one of the higher scoring teams and Luck has emerged as an MVP candidate.

The Colts are leading the NFL in scoring at 34 points a game and are second in yards per game at 444. Luck has thrown for eight touchdowns and 763 yards in the last two weeks. The Colts' ground attack is improved this year and the Ravens' defense is far less intimidating away from home.

Baltimore's offense has picked up with solid running back depth and Steve Smith upgrading the receiving corps. Joe Flacco has a strong arm and should be able to move the ball on a mediocre Indy defense who have been lucky enough to face the Jaguars and Charlie Whitehurst-led Titans the last two weeks.

This game is on a fast track, too, being played at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Cal is mentally and physically exhausted for this tough trip facing the pass-crazy Cougars.

The Golden Bears nearly upset Arizona two weeks ago blowing a 22-point halftime lead and losing on a Hail Mary pass on the last play. Then this past week California got past Colorado in double overtime.

Washington State has the top passing offense in the country led by Connor Halliday. The Cougars rank 14th in yardage averaging 533 yards per game.

Washington State needs this game to have a shot at a bowl game. The Cougars have been playing well defeating Utah on the road last week and giving Oregon all it could handle two weeks ago. The Cougars have covered 68 percent of their last 19 games, including their past five Pac-12 games.

I like Auburn's offense and defense better than LSU. The setting and spot also significantly favor Auburn.

Auburn has covered its last nine SEC games. The Tigers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games and 9-1 ATS against foes with a winning record. Their defense is holding opponents to 16.3 points per game and 2.7 yards per rush while intercepting seven passes. Auburn is in a huge revenge spot after LSU dealt the Tigers their only regular season loss last season.

LSU has switched quarterbacks turning to true freshman Brandon Harris. This is an extremely difficult spot for the youngster. He is likely going to be playing from behind where he will need to throw and three of his four top receivers are freshmen.

LSU has played two top opponents - Wisconsin and Mississippi State. The Tigers were outrushed by a combined 351 yards in those two games. LSU was able to take advantage of Wisconsin's problems at quarterback but fell too far behind Mississippi State at 34-10 in the final quarter before losing 34-29. In both games, though, LSU trailed big.

LSU coach Les Miles is a great recruiter. But Miles has lost a number of excellent underclass players - particularly on defense - and his team's inexperience is going to catch up to him here.

LSU has only five players on defense who have had more than 11 career starts. Auburn ranks 15th in scoring averaging 42.2 points and is 35th in yards gained. The Tigers have the offensive personnel to take full advantage in winning by a margin of more than a touchdown.

I see Notre Dame's weak schedule and August suspension of five players catching up to the Irish here.

Notre Dame has victories over Syracuse, Rice, Purdue and Michigan, who we know now isn't any good.

Stanford, on the other hand, beat Washington on the road and dominated No. 16 USC but lost despite outgaining the Trojans by more than 100 yards and having a solid edge in first downs and time of possession.

The Irish step up to face the nation's top scoring defense and No. 1 ranked defense in fewest yards allowed. Stanford's offense should pick up. It has been held back by penalties, turnovers, missed field goals and red zone difficulties. Senior kicker Jordan Williamson is just 4 for 8 on field goals. Those things can be corrected. The important thing is the talent is there backed by the best defense in the land.

The Cardinal also are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 road games.

TCU is playing excellent defense giving up just 21 points on the season. The Horned Frogs rank in the top five defensively in points allowed, yards and passing yards.

Oklahoma won 20-17 in last year's matchup.

Sooners QB Trevor Knight hasn't been consistent this season. I see him struggling to put up big numbers against this kind of quality defense on the road.

Oklahoma has a top 20 defense giving up 16.5 points per game and ranking 18th in run defense.

A couple of 0-5 teams with nothing to lose here.

UMass has become a huge throwing team with hardly any ground attack. Minutemen quarterback Blake Frohnapfel is improving with each game. The Marshall transfer completed 36-of-61 pass attempts for 589 yards and five touchdowns in a 47-42 loss to Bowling Green last week.

UMass doesn't play much defense particularly having problems stopping the run. The Minutemen are giving up more than 40 points a game. They are an excellent over team with a combination of no defense and a passing offense. The over has cashed in their last four games.

Miami of Ohio is similar to UMass. The Redhawks have become a throwing team, too, while having trouble defensively. They are giving up an average of 31.8 points per game.

The timing is bad here for the Vikings. Green Bay's offense is back in sync with Aaron Rodgers producing one of his best games last week. Vikings coach Mike Zimmer is an excellent defensive coach, but it's going to take him time to build back a porous defense that is likely to be missing linebacker Chad Greenway again.

Rodgers has regularly taken advantage of the Vikings' vulnerable secondary with a 26-to-4 touchdown-to-interception career ratio.

The Vikings are off a great home victory against Atlanta, but now travel on a short week. The Giants beat the home Redskins last Thursday, but in the first three Thursday games of the season the home team has won and covered each time winning by a combined margin of 118-36.

Rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater sparked the Vikings in their win against the Falcons, who suffered multiple offensive line injuries and can't play in outdoor road settings. Bridgewater, though, suffered an ankle injury. There's a drop from Bridgewater to third-stringer Christian Ponder, who would be Minnesota's third starting quarterback in three weeks if Bridgewater is a no good.

Even if Bridgewater plays, he won't be at 100 percent and the Packers now have film on him. He won't sneak up on them like he did the Falcons. Bridgewater is missing key weapons Adrian Peterson and Kyle Rudolph. That is going to catch up to the Vikings soon. Green Bay's run defense has been soft, but the Vikings minus Peterson have only pedestrian backs.

The Packers are off a huge road win against the Bears. This is their lone home game during a four-week span. They will be taking this matchup very serious. Minnesota hasn't won at Lambeau Field since 2009.

I also like these player props (taken from Bovada) on Packers wide receiver Davonte Adams.   I like Adams to go over 2 1/2 receptions and over 25 1/2 receiving yards. Jarrett Boykin is out. Adams is the Packers' new clear No. 3 wide receiver. He played 70 percent of the offensive snaps last week when Boykin didn't play and caught a 34-yard touchdown pass that didn't count because of a penalty. Aaron Rodgers is getting more comfortable throwing to Adams. The Vikings will be paying a lot of attention to Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb giving Adams plenty of receiving opportunities. 

Before prematurely writing off the Patriots for their slow offensive start consider how bad and banged-up the Chiefs are in key areas.

Kansas City has lost eight of its past 11 games. The Chiefs have lost the statistics battle in eight of these 11 games, too. They are minus a number of key defensive players, including safety Eric Berry and their best linebacker, Derrick Johnson. The Chiefs have failed to cover in seven of the last 10 games they've played versus foes with a winning record.

Kansas City's offensive line is down starters, too, because of injuries and suspensions. Jamaal Charles isn't 100 percent and Alex Smith entered this Week 4 with the worst sack-to-pass-play ratio among starting quarterbacks. He's been sacked 11 times already.

New England's defense is playing well coming into this week limiting foes to 272.7 yards and intercepting six passes.

The Patriots' offense will come around as Rob Gronkowski gets more involved. So far he's played less than 50 percent of the offensive's snaps. Tom Brady shouldn't have any trouble carving up such a weakened defense.

The Patriots also are 7-0 ATS in Week 4.

In a few weeks this line is going to have looked real cheap. The Saints are 1-2. They could be 3-0 having lost in overtime on the road to Atlanta and in the final three seconds to Cleveland on the road.

New Orleans hasn't come close to reaching its peak yet both offensively and defensively. That could come here against Dallas, whose franchise-worst defense of 2013 isn't any better this year if not worse.

DeMarco Murray is the lone running back to rush for 100 yards in every game this season, but Tony Romo is past his prime and still not 100 percent following off-season back surgery. He has weapons, but Drew Brees has more weapons, including all-world tight end Jimmy Graham. Brees still remains in his peak.

The Saints have beaten the Cowboys in each of their last three meetings, including destroying them, 49-17, last year in the Superdome. The Saints are at their worst in a cold weather setting, which this is not.

Dallas is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 home games and 8-18 ATS following a victory. Sean Payton is a far superior coach to Jason Garrett. The Cowboys' road victory against the Titans doesn't look so hot now that Tennessee has looked terrible in its last two games and Dallas' narrow victory this past Sunday against the Rams isn't impressive either considering St. Louis was playing third-string quarterback Austin Davis.

Bottom line here is the Saints are two levels higher than the Cowboys. So this is a cheap price to lay and the best time to lay it is now before the line rises as expected.

Oakland can't play in the States and the Raiders won't be any better in London.

As bad as Miami has looked the past two weeks the Dolphins are still a much better team than the Raiders. Oakland ranks with Jacksonville as one of the two worst teams in the NFL. The Dolphins have a playoff caliber defense and their offensive line should be at their best with center Mike Pouncey expected back.

The Raiders rank last in yards and points on offense. Rookie quarterback Derek Carr has below average wide receivers and no ground support. Carr is going to face pressure from Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon, two of the best pass rushers in the AFC.

As bad as Oakland is on offense its numbers could be even worse as nearly half of their points and yardage have come during garbage time when the outcome had been decided.

There were 78 points scored last year in Duke's 48-30 victory against Miami. The two teams should match that this season.

David Cutcliffe has made Duke an offensive powerhouse. The Blue Devils always could throw, but now they've become balanced averaging 261 yards on the ground and 230 through the air behind quarterback Anthony Boone.

Boone has completed 62.4 percent of his passes for 876 yards while accounting for 10 touchdowns. Miami gives up nearly 25 points per game. The Blue Devils are averaging better than 43 points per contest. Boone not only has three outstanding receiving targets, but also is aided by freshman tailback Shaun Wilson, who is averaging 14.4 yards a carry and has scored four touchdowns.

Duke, though, ranks 91st in run defense and Miami has one of the top runners in the country in Duke Johnson. He's averaging 6.2 yards per carry. The key for the Hurricanes is freshman quarterback Brad Kaaya, who has looked promising completing 62.4 percent for 1,057 yards and 10 touchdowns. The Hurricanes are putting up nearly 400 yards of offense per game.

Miami of Ohio has one of the worst offenses in the country devoid of skill position talent and averaging fewer than 18 points a game. RedHawk quarterbacks have been picked off six times this season. Their ground attack hasn't been any better averaging less than 74 yards per game and scoring only once.

Buffalo's defense should be able to handle the RedHawks, especially playing at home.

The Bulls do have a slightly better quarterback, Joe Licata. But Buffalo doesn't have a great multi-offense either minus their top offensive player from last year, running back Branden Oliver. I don't give much credence to their 36-7 win over Norfolk State last week.

Note that the under has cashed in 17 of the Bulls' last 25 home games and in 10 of the Bulls' past 14 MAC games.

Michigan State isn't just about defense. The Spartans have scored 145 points in their first three games. They can bury lesser opponents as they showed last week running up 73 points against Eastern Michigan.

The Spartans primarily run the ball, but quarterback Connor Cook has completed almost 70 percent of his passes this season with seven touchdowns. Wyoming ranks 75th in run defense giving up 161 yards on the ground per game. Cook should be in favorable second and short yardage many times. The over has cashed in Michigan State's past four home games.

Wyoming shouldn't be intimidated after having already played at No. 4 Oregon and losing, 48-14. The Cowboys have a good running back, receiver and place-kicker. Michigan State plays great defense, but has been prone to give up a big play.

Georgia Southern has been a covering machine going 8-0 ATS in its last eight lined games. But this line is inflated. These are two long-time Southern Conference rivals each making the transition to the Sun Belt Conference this year.

Georgia Southern is the better team - but not by these many points.

Appalachian State has beaten the Eagles each of the past three seasons. The Mountaineers clobbered the Eagles, 38-14, at home last season. The teams had seven common foes last year and Georgia Southern managed to eke out only one more win than the Mountaineers. The statistics against these common opponents were close to even when comparing the box scores.

Even though this is a  new season, Appalachian State knows Georgia Southern and its triple option offense well. The Mountaineers are a decent defensive team holding foes to 24.3 points a game and 328 yards. They've picked off six passes. Appalachian State should have beat Southern Mississippi on the road last week losing by one point. The Mountaineers missed two field goals and also had a field goal and game-tying extra point blocked.

Georgia Southern gives up an average of nearly 70 yards more per game than the Mountaineers.

The Packers' defense remains disappointing lucky not to have surrendered at least 31 points at home last week to the offensively-challenged Jets. Green Bay has surrendered at least 26 points in 10 of its last 13 games. Last year, Green Bay gave up an average of 30.8 points on the road and already yielded 36 in a Week 1 loss to Seattle.

The Lions have a lot of weapons, including Calvin Johnson. The Packers haven't been able to match up to him.

The Packers have plenty of weapons of their own and have a huge revenge motive to pile up points after the Lions embarrassed them, 40-10, on Thanksgiving. Green Bay was missing Aaron Rodgers in that game. The Packers losing James Jones in the off-season has been offset by the emergence of rookie Davante Adams. Rodgers should have no problem lighting up a Detroit secondary that has multiple injuries and was thin to start.

Green Bay has played in six dome games since 2012 and gone over in five of them. The setting is perfect here for a shootout between Rodgers and Matthew Stafford.

The Saints have been invincible at home going 17-0 SU and 16-1 ATS the past 17 times at the Superdome when Sean Payton is the coach.

The Saints are in an ugly frame of mind, too, after blowing late leads to the Falcons and Browns on the road to start 0-2.

The Vikings gave up the most points last year. Drew Brees can take advantage with Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston and other weapons he has.

New Orleans averaged 34 points at home last year. The Saints' defense is better than it has looked this year and will get to tee off on journeyman Matt Cassel. Minus Adrian Peterson, Cassel doesn't have the ground game to keep the Saints' pass rush honest. He's not nearly a good enough quarterback to keep pace with Brees.

Don't be fooled by the Redskins' strong defensive numbers. The Redskins have improved only marginally on defense. They've faced Ryan Fitzpatrick and Chad Henne to open the season. Now they get Nick Foles and one of the best offenses in football with the Eagles.
 
Kirk Cousins is a better fit for the Redskins' offense. The running of Alfred Morris takes the pressure off Cousins. The Eagels are going to be without their best defensive player, linebacker Mychal Kendricks. That's going to open the running lanes even more for Morris as the Eagles' replacements for Kendricks are bad.
 
The Redskins don't have enough secondary depth to cover the Eagles' many weapons, including Darren Sproles out of the backfield and emerging tight end force Zach Ertz. The Eagles have injuries in their offensive line, but this will be their second game with their fill-ins. They were able to put up 30 points on the road against the Colts with them in their last game.
 
Philadelphia has scored 30 or more points in five of its last six regular season games. They are comfortable in Chip Kelly's up-tempo offense being in the second year of his system. 

UMass is much improved offensively from last season. The Minutemen have put up 69 points and more than 700 yards combined during their last two games.

Penn State is tough versus the run, but the Minutemen can test the Nittany Lions through the air. UMass quarterback Blake Frohnapfel and wide receiver Tajae Sharpe have proven to be a good combination. Sharpe has hauled in 15 passes for 246 yards.

Penn State quarterback Christian Hackenberg has thrown for 1,082 yards while completing 62.2 percent of his passes. He is an emerging talent. He can correct Penn State's red zone difficulties against such a weak defense as the Minutemen are giving up 35 points per game and more than 417 yards per game.

SMU is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 home games and will be highly motivated for its home opener in this matchup against in-state rival Texas A&M. The game means far less to the Aggies, who are not in a kill spot for ratings since they control their own destiny with upcoming games against Alabama and Auburn.

The Mustangs' bye came last week at an opportune time as June Jones resigned after the last game replaced by Tom Mason, a player's coach who has been the team's defensive coordinator the past six seasons. The Mustangs also made a quarterback change, which should help. SMU has covered six of the last seven times following a bye.

The Aggies are without their second-leading receiver, Speedy Noil, and have a bigger game on deck against Arkansas.

This is Rice's lone September home game and I expect the Owls to perform well. After losing to Texas A&M and Notre Dame on the road, the Owls not only finally get to play at home but step way down in class. Rice has covered seven of its past 10 home contests. Rice is 5-2 ATS as home chalk. The Owls, by the way, outgained Texas A&M and had five more first downs than the Aggies.

I respect Old Dominion's offense, but the Monarchs are new to Conference USA moving up to Division I level. Rice has some rebuilding, but the Owls won the league title last year earned a bowl bid for the second consecutive year. There's a certain confidence level that goes with that.

It raises a red flag about Old Dominion that the Monarchs struggled to beat Eastern Michigan, a terrible MAC team, last week.

Now that his key skill position players - Julio Jones, Roddy White and Steven Jackson - are healthy, Matt Ryan can move the ball on any team playing inside the Georgia Dome. The addition of big-play man Dester Hester is another plus for Atlanta.

Ryan should have a big night facing a Tampa Bay defense that has been hit hard by injuries to their front seven. The Buccaneers particularly will be missing star tackle Gerald McCoy, out with a hand injury. The Bucs also haven't faced an offense nearly this talented after opening against the Derek Anderson-led Panthers and third-string Austin Davis-led Rams.

The Falcons are bad on defense, though. They have surrendered 472 yards in each of their first two games. The Buccaneers have tall, physical wide receivers who can take advantage.

Josh McCown has had two games now to get in sync with his new offense. The Falcons don't generate much of a pass rush so I'm expecting McCown to play as well in this game as he played last year for Chicago when he filled in for Jay Cutler.

Both of these teams are favored to win their respective divisions. Both have flaws, though. Right now the Colts are in better shape, have the better quarterback and are at home, which means a lot.

During the two-year Andrew Luck era, Indy is 14-3 at home, 12-4-1 ATS. They beat both the Broncos and Seahawks last year by six points each. Philly certainly isn't in that class.

Nick Foles already showed signs last week against lowly Jacksonville that he's not going to maintain his incredible 27-to-2 touchdown-to-interception season of a year. He committed two turnovers against the Jaguars and was sacked five times.

The Colts' pass rush leaves much to be desired minus Robert Mathis, but the Eagles' offensive line is in disarray with four of their top seven linemen out, including star guard Evan Mathis. They are on their third right tackle.

Trend-wise the Eagles are 2-8-1 ATS in September and have failed to cover the last five times when playing in their second game of the year. The Colts have also covered in eight of their last 10 Monday night games.

I

The Raiders were even worse than advertised against the Jets, which is saying a lot. The final score was Jets 19, Raiders 14. But the statistics show New York's domination. The Jets outgained the Raiders, 402-158, outrushing them, 212-25.

Oakland's below-average wide receivers couldn't even get separation on the Jets' cornerbacks, who could be the worst in the NFL. Maurice Jones-Drew and Darren McFadden, both of whom averaged only 3.3 yards per carry last year, both looked terrible.

The Raiders have to simplify their playbook for rookie quarterback Derek Carr and don't have the supporting cast for him to succeed.

Houston is a prime bounce back team with $100 million man J.J. Watt, perhaps the only player in the league capable of blowing up an offense by himself, along with a healthy-again Arian Foster and Andre Johnson, who are among the best at their respective positions.

Ryan Fitzpatrick is an intelligent, veteran game-manager, which is what the Texans need in this spot. It's an added plus for the Texans if the Raiders are without middle linebacker Nick Roach for a second straight week.

Houston first-year coach Bill O'Brien is a lot sharper than Oakland coach Dennis Allen.

It's one thing for the Jets to beat Oakland and rookie quarterback Derek Carr at home with the worst cornerbacks in the league. Hanging on the road with Aaron Rodgers is quite another story.

I see the Packers blowing out the Raiders. Green Bay has had extra prep time and is in a foul mood following their embarrassing national TV loss to the Seahawks this past Thursday.

Green Bay is a much better team than it looked against the Seahawks. The Packers' offense was crisp during preseason with Rodgers running the no-huddle to near perfection.

The Jets made a big mistake not spending money on the cornerback position. Now they are extremely thin and vulnerable there. Rodgers, with Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, can easily exploit New York's secondary.

Green Bay is 8-1 ATS the past nine times when laying seven or more points. Geno Smith plays much worse on the road. Last year, he had a 5-to-13 touchdown-to-interception ratio on the road.

This is the Jets' only road matchup during their first four games so a loss would not be catastrophic for them especially after beating the Raiders last week.

I don't see the Browns offense, devoid of skill position talent and with injuries to key players, being able to keep up with Drew Brees.

The Browns caught the Steelers coasting and by surprise with a no-huddle offense last Sunday in scoring 24 second-half points. The Saints' defense is much better than it showed against the Falcons. They just ran into a very good - and healthy - Falcons offense in the Georgia Dome. The Saints have film now on the Browns' no-huddle and won't be fooled.

The Saints do not have a good track record in outdoor road games, but they did beat the Bears at Soldier Field last season and the Eagles in cold weather during a road playoff game.

Look for the Patriots to play much better than they did in Week 1. It has been 33 games since New England lost two regular season games in a row. Consequently, it has been 18 games since Minnesota won consecutive games.

The Vikings look improved under Mike Zimmer, but they have a long ways to go after giving up the most touchdown passes and second-most passing yards last season. They are not going against backup quarterbacks this week, but Tom Brady.

Brady and the Patriots are eager to redeem themselves after losing in humiliation fashion to the more physical Dolphins. New England's defense is much improved with the return to health of Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo plus the addition of Darrelle Revis. Bill Belichick is quite familiar with journeyman quarterback Matt Cassel, who he formerly coached.

Note, too, that the Vikings no longer have their indoor dome edge against outdoor teams. The Vikings are playing their games at TCF Bank Stadium. This is their first game there, which will be a distraction and cut down on their home field edge.

Rutgers is going to be super pumped playing in its first Big Ten game. Both these East Coast schools recruit heavily in New Jersey and the Scarlet Knights were none too pleased when new Penn State coach James Franklin came out and said he would be recruiting the hell out of New Jersey.

This is a tough spot for Penn State. The Nittany Lions nipped Central Florida, 26-24, at the gun in their opener. That game was played in London. Then the Nittany Lions were pumped for last week's game against Akron because it was Franklin's first home game as the new coach.

Penn State hasn't faced a running back as good as Paul James, who rushed for 173 yards and scored three touchdowns in a 41-38 road win against Washington State. James takes a lot of pressure off quarterback Gary Nova.

Penn State QB Christian Hackenberg has a lot of promise, but he's inexperienced and already has tossed four interceptions this season. It took a fourth quarter touchdown for the Nittany Lions to pull out the cover last Saturday against MAC weakling Akron.

The pressure is all on Hackenberg as Penn State averages only 2.7 yards per run. This is against UCF and Akron, too. Rutgers can apply the heat. The Scarlet Knights have eight sacks in their two games, both wins.

South Carolina has not looked good in failing to cover its first two games. But Steve Spurrier's Gamecocks have a strong history against Georgia and can get right back into the SEC race with a victory. This is a pivotal game for them.

In Las Vegas, the line on this matchup was put up before the season as one of the Game of the Year type marquee matchups to bet on. South Carolina was listed as a 12-point favorite. Now that line is sliced in half. That's too much especially for a game between two SEC teams.

South Carolina's problems have come in trying to stop the pass. The Gamecocks have faced Texas A&M and East Carolina, which both use spread offenses heavy on throwing. That's not Georgia's style.

The Bulldogs feature star running back Todd Gurley. They lack marquee outside skill position players. South Carolina has held Gurley in check the past two years holding him to a combined average of 85.5 yards on 21.5 carries.

South Carolina has covered six of the past seven meetings against Georgia. The Gamecocks also have covered the last two times they've hosted the Bulldogs. Last year, Georgia covered only one of its seven road games.

Spurrier has an outstanding track record as a 'dog covering 13 of the past 20 times.

This has been an under series with seven of the last nine going below the total. But I see more scoring than the oddsmaker does in this year's annual in-state rivalry matchup.

Iowa is known for producing outstanding offensive linemen and this year isn't an exception. Brandon Scherff could be one of the three best tackles in the nation. The Hawkeyes also are strong at center with Austin Blythe and guard Jordan Walsh is very good, too.

I also like the Hawkeyes' passing attack behind improved quarterback Jake Rudock. I see him passing for 3,000 yards this season. The Hawkeyes can put up lots of points on Iowa State, which has a leaky defensive front and must prove it can stop the run after allowing 33 rushing scores last year and 5.35 yards per carry.

Through two games, the Cyclones are giving up 33 points a game, rank 110th in defensive yards and 121st in rushing yards allowed.

Iowa State can put up points, though, with 11 experience players back from last year. Mark Mangino is a better offensive coordinator than head coach. You can't compete in the Big 12 if you don't have offense and the Cyclones have offense.

Dallas had its worst defense in franchise history last season giving up 50 touchdowns and the most yards in team history. The Cowboys defense looks even worse this year because of injuries, defections and a suspension to cornerback Orlando Scandrick.

The Cowboys are going to have win via shootouts. The timing isn't great for Dallas' offense. Tony Romo was brought along slowly following off-season back surgery. Romo is rusty and his offensive line has some inexperience.

Colin Kaepernick is on the verge of a break-out season with a deep set of receivers, including a healthy Michael Crabtree. San Francisco has covered in eight of its last 10 road games.

Dallas has been one of the biggest money-burners at home going 6-13 ATS in their last 19 in Arlington.

Expect Dallas to have the worst defense in the NFL, even worse than last season. That's saying a lot since the Cowboys surrendered 50 touchdowns and the most yards in franchise history.

The 49ers are down, too, on defense missing key cogs linebacker NaVorro Bowman and pass rushing terror Aldon Smith.

By contrast, the 49ers should be much improved on offense. Colin Kapernick is on the verge of a break-out season and he has a deep set of receivers to throw to, including Michael Crabtree, Vernon Davis, Anquan Boldin and veteran newcomers Steve Johnson and Brandon Lloyd.

The 49ers should have no problem taking advantage of the Cowboys missing their pass rushers, linebacker and cornerback.

Dallas, though, is going to put up points with a solid offensive line, a healthy Tony Romo and excellent skill position players, including the most dangerous red zone target among wide receivers in Dez Bryant.

The Steelers have owned the Browns winning seven of the past eight times. They have held Cleveland to an average of 9.3 points during the past 12 meetings.

The Browns look just as terrible on offense as ever. Brian Hoyer is more backup than starter and he could have the worst starting wide receiver tandem in the NFL in washed-up Miles Austin and Andrew Hawkins.

The Steelers' defense is always tough, especially at home, and it received an infusion of new blood spearheaded by good-looking rookie Ryan Shazier.

Pittsburgh's offense is more balanced this season. The Steelers' offensive line is more stable and Ben Roethlisberger has two good running backs - Le'Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount - to help make his deadly play action passes work.

The Steelers closed last season covering seven of their last eight games. The Browns are just 3-7 in their last 10 road games. They also are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in Pittsburgh.

No team has been more futile on opening day than the Browns, who are 1-14 SU and 2-12-1 ATS since coming back into the league in 1999.

The Chiefs aren't coming close to winning 11 games this season. They lost three offensive linemen in free agency and another, right tackle, Donald Stephenson, is suspended for the first four games. The key member of the line, left tackle Eric Fisher, is coming off shoulder surgery and hasn't looked good.

Also suspended is Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City's best wide receiver. The Chiefs could have the worst collection of wideouts in the NFL without Bowe.

The Chiefs' offense struggled during preseason as their first-string offense failed to produce a touchdown. The Chiefs are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games.

The Titans, on the other hand, look like one of the more improved teams in the NFL. They upgraded their coaching bringing in proven winner and offensive guru Ken Whisenhunt. Jake Locker is healthy and is ready for a breakout season fortified with three underrated wide receivers - Justin Hunter, Kendall Wright and Nate Washington. They can take advantage of a Kansas City defense that fell apart during the second half of last season.

Tennessee is 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight road contests. 

Kliff Kingsbury and Texas Tech can be trusted to put up a lot of points here.

Red Raiders quarterback Davis Webb emerged last year and he looked good opening week completing 39-of-52 passes for 452 yards and four touchdowns against Central Arkansas.

Texas Tech should have no problem putting up at least 40 points. The Miners surrendered 41 or more points in five of their last six games.

UTEP has an improved offense. The Miners can get their share of points against the Red Raiders, who yielded an average of 48.6 points during their last five regular season games last year and have not noticeably improved defensively this season. They gave up 35 points to Central Arkansas in their opener last week. 

Air Force couldn't wait for this season after last year's perfect storm of injuries, bad play and poor production.

The Falcons, with their stable of quick backs, need to be able to run effectively to win. They can do that against the Cowboys, who yielded an average of 48.3 points per game during their last six games last season and then struggled to beat Montana, 17-12, at home last week.

Air Force, on the other hand, looked good in beating Nicholls State, 44-16, last weekend. Certainly I don't want to overrate that win. Nicholls State is terrible.

But this is a huge matchup for Air Force and not just because of a revenge motive. The Falcons had dominated Wyoming going 6-1 in the series until suffering a 56-23 humiliation last season.

The road team now has won four in a row in the series. Air Force is putting a lot of stock in this Mountain West Conference opener. The Falcons had an easy opener last week and get another scheduling break next week facing Georgia State. Air Force's goal is to return to a bowl knowing it needs six victories to accomplish that. The Falcons are going to have to deal with Boise State, Navy and Utah State down the road so this matchup already is vital.

Wyoming, meanwhile, has to play at Oregon next week. The Cowboys surrendered an average of 482 yards per game last year and 36.7 points ranking among the bottom teams in those two most important defensive categories.

The Cowboys also have a problem at quarterback trying to replace Brett Smith. Colby Kirkegaard looked terrible against Montana completing 13-of-21 passes for 92 yards while being intercepted once and sacked six times. His ineffectiveness directly affects all-conference wide receiver Dominic Rufran, who was held to just four receptions for a meager 25 yards.

I was impressed by Minnesota's offense in a 42-20 victory last week versus Eastern Illinois. The Gophers have good running backs and a solid offensive line that averages 6-foot-4, 310 pounds. I see them overwhelming Middle Tennessee, which doesn't have Big Ten size or talent. 
The Blue Raiders, though, have always had respectable offenses under Rick Stockstill, the former Florida State quarterback. They scored 42 or more points in four of their last six games last season. It is alarming that Minnesota gave up 409 yards and 27 first downs to Eastern Illinois and bodes well for Middle Tennessee. 

Pittsburgh has the better talent and more depth in the trenches. That should prove enough to cover this road spread.

Both teams were impressive opening week in dispatching far lesser opponents. But the Panthers were especially sharp beating Delaware, 62-0, amassing 409 yards rushing. Bruising sophomore tailback James Connor is in for a big season. He opened the season in style rushing for 153 yards and scoring four touchdowns.

Boston College rolled past Massachusetts, 30-7. The Eagles, however, have lost a number of key players, including 2,000-yard rusher Andre Williams. Tyler Murphy is their new quarterback, too, replacing veteran Chase Rettig. I remember Murphy getting his chance at Florida and not impressing.

Boston College has failed to cover 10 of its last 14 lined games in September.

The Packers' offense was in top form during preseason with a healthy Aaron Rodgers and Eddie Lacy. Rodgers still has a deep core of outstanding wide receivers plus he's never had a runner as good as Lacy.

The Packers' no-huddle, quick-tempo offense can combat the loud noise level in Seattle and the Packers' physical wide receivers can deal with Seattle's aggressive secondary.

Both secondaries are going to be hurt by the official's increased scrutiny on defensive holding and pass interference. It's definitely a plus for the offenses, especially in this matchup where the league wants to set a tone right away.

The Seahawks are going to be passing more this season. The Packers are weak at linebacker and have problems handling power backs such as Marshawn Lynch. The Seahawks are extra dangerous with a healthy Percy Harvin, who also is live to score a touchdown via special teams.

Everybody seems to be just recalling the Seahawks smashing the Broncos in the Super Bowl and forgetting about the Packers, who with Aaron Rodgers and a healthy lineup are as good as any team on a neutral field.

Seattle is the loudest outdoor venue in the league, but Green Bay negates some of that Seahawks' home field advantage with a no-huddle. The Packers are no longer a finesse team. Not with powerful Eddie Lacy.

The Seahawks have the best secondary in the league. But their physical secondary is going to be affected more than any other team with the increased emphasis from officials on flagging defensive holding and making tighter pass interference calls.

The Packers are deep at wide receiver. The Seahawks are actually weak at nickel back with Jeremy Lane, who isn't 100 percent because of a groin injury and will have problems handling Randall Cobb, who the Packers constantly move around. Seattle lost three of their top seven defensive linemen reducing their depth. Green Bay's offensive line is underrated especially with Bryan Bulaga healthy. I would take Green Bay's offensive line over Seattle's.

The Packers have a deep secondary, too, and their defensive line is much improved. The Packers haven't forgotten either how they were robbed during their last visit to Seattle two years ago when replacement referees stole the game from Green Bay.

Even with Teddy Bridgewater gone, there remains a class difference between these two teams.

Bobby Petrino isn't the most likeable guy, but he can coach and he has back 19 returning starters or part-time starters.

Louisville destroyed Miami, 36-9, in the Florida Citrus Bowl last December. Now the oddsmaker is trying to say these teams are about even on a neutral field. I don't buy it.

Louisville has won 23 of 26 games the past two years. The Cardinals are an elite team. Miami isn't.

Of course I'm a Chuckie Keeton fan. But Tennessee has too much size, speed and talent for Utah State. The Volunteers made strides last year in Butch Jones' first season as head coach.

But their 5-7 record doesn't look impressive. However, you must consider the Vols' rough SEC schedule. They also were very young.

Now things are ready to improve for Tennessee. The Volunteers have won their last 19 home openers. Utah State has dropped its last 16 road openers.

Keeton has only two returning starters on offense. Tennessee's defensive strength is it's veteran secondary. The Volunteers can control Keeton at home and win by at least a touchdown.

New Mexico is a running team with an improved defense. UTEP also looks to be better in Sean Kugler's second season. Their entire coaching staff returned entact. The Lobos no longer have workhorse running back Kasey Carrier, who rushed for 291 yards and four touchdowns when New Mexico beat UTEP, 42-35, in overtime last season. I don't expect that many points to be scored in this year's heated rivalry. I'm not a fan of Miners' quarterback Jameill Showers. I'm also not high on the passing skills of Lobos' signal-caller Cole Gautsche, who completed less than 45 percent of his throws last season. The perception is these two defenses are terrible. They were last year. But I see some improvement, coupled with inefficient passing quarterbacks and a high total. That's an under formula.

Be ready early as this matchup starts at 5:30 a.m. Las Vegas time being played in Dublin, Ireland.

Central Florida nipped Penn State last year at State College, 34-31. The Knights have the better athletes and are the better team this season.

Bill O'Brien did a great job keeping things together for Penn State. But he's gone now and the heavy loss of recruits due to the Jerry Sandusky sex scandal are going to haunt the Nittany Lions especially when they take on very good teams such as UCF.

The Knights no longer have Blake Bortles, but have nearly their entire defense back from last year when they finished 17th in scoring defensive giving up 21.3 points per game. It's a championship caliber defense.

Christian Hackenberg is a good quarterback, but he's playing behind a weak offensive line. The Knights will be able to blitz Hackenberg liberally because of their outstanding cornerbacks.

The Knights have covered in their last six non-league games, including beating Baylor by 10 points in last season's Fiesta Bowl. The Knights also have covered 74 percent of their last 19 non-league matchups.

The under has cashed in five of the past six meetings in this in-state rivalry matchup.

Both defenses look improved from last year, while each offense is missing a key piece.

Colorado State is without Kapri Bibbs, who rushed for 1,741 yards on 281 carries and scored 31 touchdowns last season. He's going to be very hard to replace. On the flip side, the Rams look better on defense with two very good linebackers and an experienced secondary.

The Rams are inexperienced on the defensive line, which could mean more running plays for Colorado. The Buffaloes generated less than 26 points per game last season despite scoring a combined 81 points against Central Arkansas and Charleston Southern. They were held to 20 points or less in six of nine Pac-12 games.

Sophomore quarterback Sefo Liufau is going to miss star wide receiver Paul Richardson, who accounted for 10 of Colorado's 21 receiving touchdowns.

There could be a weather factor, too, as there is a chance of a thunderstorm.

Curtis Johnson did a magnificent job with Tulane last year. He greatly improved the Green Wave defense to the point where Tulane forced 35 turnovers. Tulsa, by contrast, had a terrible season last year going 3-9. I'm not convinced the Golden Hurricane have turned things around. I'm not a fan of Tulsa QB Dane Evans, who is turnover prone. Tulane forces turnovers and has a very good secondary. The Green Wave are very dangerous as 'dogs under Johnson. They went 7-2 ATS in that role last season and enter this matchup with a great deal of confidence. Now that the line has reached 7, I'm going to back them.

I see far more scoring than the oddsmaker sees in this matchup, so much more that this rates as my August Total of the Month.

South Carolina averaged 34.1 points last year and has 8 starters back. Steve Spurrier has a well designed offense that doesn't need departed quarterback Connor Shaw to be successful especially when facing such a bad defense as the Aggies. Texas A&M surrendered more than 32 points last year and finished 109th in yardage. Its defense doesn't look any better this year.

The Aggies are going to continue to put up points even without Johnny Manziel. New starting quarterback Kenny Hill can run and throw at a level close to Manziel's. The Aggies have good running backs and two tough to cover receivers in 6-foot-6, 277-pound tight end Cam Clear and Ricky Seals-Jones, who is 6-5, 235. The Aggies use them as double tight ends causing serious matchup problems.

Keep in mind, too, the Gamecocks are without last year defensive stars Jadeveon Clowney and Kelcey Quarles.