The 49ers are playing their best ball having won six in a row. They have covered their last seven road games and won't be intimidated at all playing in cold weather at Lambeau Field.



The 49ers were unstoppable when they beat the Packers at home by two touchdowns in last season's playoffs piling up 579 yards. The Packers couldn't stop Colin Kaepernick on the ground or through the air.



The Packers vowed to get more physical after that game. Green Bay cut some of the gap, but still lost by a touchdown opening week at home to the 49ers. The Packers keyed on Kaepernick's running ability so he burned them through the air throwing for more than 400 yards.



Green Bay has been merely surviving flying through the seat of its pants. Rodgers being back gives the Packers a puncher's chance, but the 49ers are far more healthier than Green Bay and have a far superior defense.



Rodgers couldn't beat the 49ers at home when he was 100 percent and had tight end Jermichael Finley and the defense had star pass rusher Clay Matthews.



Injuries have just about decimated Green Bay. Randall Cobb is back, but he's not 100 percent. Eddie Lacy is dealing with a sore ankle. Too many of Green Bay's inexperienced reserves are thrust into key roles. That's not going to cut it versus San Francisco.

The Bengals, particularly Andy Dalton, have much to prove after losing in the first round of the playoffs each of the last two seasons.

Everything lines up for the Bengals to prove themselves in a big way in this matchup. The Bengals are home against a mediocre West Coast team coming into 30-degree weather with a mix of snow and rain forecast and playing at an early start time.

The Chargers are well-coached, but their talent level - especially on defense - doesn't come close to matching the Bengals.

Cincinnati has been dominant at home winning and covering all eight of its games at Paul Brown Stadium. The Bengals have beaten good teams at home, too, defeating the Steelers, Packers, Patriots, Jets, Colts and Ravens. The Bengals have won their home games by an average of 17.6 points, the last five home games were won by an average of 24 points.

Cincinnati finished with the top defense in the AFC allowing 305.5 yards per game. San Diego ranks 23rd in yards given up. The Chargers are especially vulnerable through the air ranking 29th.

Dalton has been brilliant - at home. He's thrown 17 touchdown passes in his last five home contests. A.J. Green and Marvin Jones combined for 21 touchdown receptions. They should dominate a weak San Diego secondary.

The Bengals defeated the Chargers, 17-10, at San Diego this season despite Dalton not playing well. They won it by rushing for 166 yards and getting another strong defensive effort. The Bengals could have won by double-digits but took a knee at the three-yard line at the end following a long drive.

Yes, the Saints' road troubles are well documented. But the Eagles didn't post a winning home mark and have covered only 23 percent of their last 27 home games.

The Saints have the superior and more experienced big-game quarterback, Drew Brees, than the Eagles plus a stronger defense. Those are two key components, especially when taking points.

New Orleans has playoff experience and an elite coach, Sean Payton. Chip Kelly did a fine job with the Eagles, but has never coached a pro playoff game. My trust lies far more with Brees and Payton than with Kelly and Nick Foles.

Foles has to go against a Saints defense that ranked fourth in fewest yards allowed. Brees, who knows cold weather from having played at Purdue and has a 65 percent completion rate in cold weather games, gets to operate against the Eagles' 29th-ranked defense and last ranked pass defense.

Brees has a deeper wide receiving group than Foles does, too, plus the best tight end in football, Jimmy Graham.

The Colts are 13-3 SU and 12-4 ATS at home in the two years Andrew Luck has been their quarterback.




The Colts have beaten far tougher foes than the Chiefs and they beat the Chiefs, 23-7, at Kansas City just two weeks ago. Jamaal Charles had his usual strong performance, but the Chiefs couldn't do anything putting up just one score while failing to convert on eight of nine third downs.




The Colts are playoff-experienced having made the postseason last season in Luck's rookie year while the Chiefs last made the playoffs in 2010. This is the first time Kansas City, a grass team, is playing inside a dome.




The combination of playing a very weak schedule and their defense regressing will prove too much for the Chiefs to overcome. If you throw out the Chiefs' game against the 3-13 Redskins, they've allowed an average of 30.6 points in their last six games. Their once vaunted pass rush has become non-existent recording five sacks in six games, not including the Redskins rest stop matchup.




Kansas City is 2-6 ATS when playing foes with a winning mark. The Chiefs not only were fortunate getting to play such horrendous opponents as the Redskins, Raiders twice, Texans, Jaguars, Titans, Browns and Bills, but they are a plus 22 in turnover ratio.




Kansas City needs to come up with takeaways because its offense isn't that strong. But the Colts - who beat Denver, San Francisco and Seattle - committed the fewest turnovers in the league thanks to the heady Luck. He's far superior to game-manager Alex Smith.




Smith is going to have to deal with Robert Mathis, who led the NFL in sacks with 19 1/2 and forced eight fumbles.

Missouri is being overrated here because of its SEC affiliation. Oklahoma State won the last three meetings and covered four of its last five in the series when Missouri was in the Big 12 and the Cowboys are the better team this season.

Missouri has a balanced offense, tall wide receivers and a star defensive lineman. But the Tigers have weaknesses that Oklahoma State can exploit just like Auburn did against Missouri in the SEC title game, 59-42. Auburn rolled up a staggering 677 yards, including 545 on the ground, in that victory.

This line would be much different if Oklahoma State didn't blow a lead to Oklahoma with 19 seconds left in its last game. The Cowboys had covered six in a row prior to that defeat, including beating Baylor 49-17 and Texas Tech, 52-34, on the road. That victory looks even more impressive now with Texas Tech beating Arizona State, 37-23, in the Holiday Bowl this past Monday.

The Cowboys are 12-2 ATS following a loss. They have a strong ground attack and quarterback Clint Chelf has enough passing ability to keep Missouri honest. The Cowboys can take advantage of a Missouri defense that was eighth in the SEC in run defense and 13th in pass defense. The Tigers also are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 neutral site contests.

A key to Auburn gashing the Tigers on the ground was an ability to effectively execute a zone-read option, which Oklahoma State also does extremely well. I see the Cowboys having plenty of running room down the alleys taking advantage of Missouri's average linebackers. Missouri does have good players in its defensive line, but Oklahoma State's offense practices against its own outstanding defensive linemen.

The Cowboys ranked 12th in scoring defense allowing 20 points a game despite facing some of the most potent offenses in college football. They also were 22nd in rush defense and have a star senior cornerback, Justin Gilbert, who can help control Missouri's passing attack.

Wisconsin has something to prove after being upset by Penn State during its final regular season game. Even with that loss, though, the Badgers still are 9-2-1 ATS. They had won six in a row before that defeat.




I see the Badgers having success running on the Gamecocks behind one of the best 1-2 punches in college football in Melvin Gordon and James White. The two combined for 2,803 rushing yards. If Gordon would have come out in the draft he likely would have been the first running back taken. The Badgers averaged 6.6 yards per carry, second-best in the country.




South Carolina finished the season winning five in a row. The Gamecocks didn't have a turnover during their past four games. I don't see that trend continuing. South Carolina was minus 4 in takeaways/giveaways during their first eight games.




It should be noted, too, the Gamecocks were 1-6 ATS in their past seven games at neutral sites.

The Bulldogs aren't too interested in this bowl while Nebraska has something to prove.



It's a revenge spot for the Cornhuskers, who lost 45-31 to Georiga last season in the Capital One Bowl. Aaron Murray burned Nebraska for five touchdowns and 427 yards. Murry, one of the elite quarterbacks in the nation, is out, though, after tearing the ACL in his left knee on Nov. 23.



It's been a disappointing season for Georgia. The Bulldogs are just 2-7-1 ATS. Georgia will be down two defensive backs, too, with strong safety Josh Harvey-Clemons and backup cornerback Sheldon Dawson suspended.

North Texas has a far superior defense, a coaching staff that has more bowl experience and are practically playing at home as its campus is less than 40 miles from the Cotton Bowl, site of this bowl game.



North Texas is going to have a huge home field advantage as neither Dallas area based team - SMU and TCU - are in a bowl game. The Rebels are 16-32 ATS in their last 48 road contests and not expecting much fan support.



UNLV last appeared in a bowl game back in 2000. Their coaching staff, players and administration have no experience with everything involved.



Not only is the situation bad for the Rebels, but they don't match up well either. If it weren't for beating a flat San Diego State squad at home during the final regular season game, the Rebels would be 0-5 versus bowl opponents this season. All but one of these losses to bowl teams was by double-digits.



North Texas, by contrast, defeated bowl teams Ball State, Rice and Middle Tennessee State all by seven or more points.



The Mean Green are playing well winning and covering six of their last seven. They average more than 31 points per game and rank ninth in scoring defense at 18.1 points per game allowed.



UNLV gives up 31.5 points per game and ranks 100th in yards allowed. The Rebels were outscored on the season.

I see Duke as the more motivated team. Texas A&M opened the season with national title hopes. Now the Aggies are playing here in the Chick-fil-A Bowl. That's quite a letdown, but it's what happens to a team that goes 0-4 versus ranked opponents and is off consecutive defeats to LSU and Missouri.




The Aggies are 2-6 ATS in their past eight games.




Duke knocked off two Top 25 foes on its way to setting a school record for victories. The Blue Devils are on a 7-1 ATS run. They have covered eight of their last 11 non-league games.




Duke quarterback Anthony Boone isn't Johnny Manizel but he knows how to win games.

I see this as a kill spot for Oregon, which has the offense and motivation to bury a Texas squad in transition.



This isn't an elite Texas team. The Longhorns are 1-3 versus Top 25 foes and have allowed at least 30 points in half of their games and 40 or more three times.



The Ducks have the offense to take advantage with one of the top quarterbacks in the country, Marcus Mariota. He completed 63.1 percent of his throws for 3,412 yards with a 30-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. There's no comparison between Mariota and Texas' mediocre quarterback Case McCoy.



Sparked by Mariota, the Ducks ranked second in the FBS in total offense averaging 573 yards and were No. 3 in points per game at 46.8. McCoy completed 57.4 percent with an 11-to-11 touchdown-to-interception ratio.



The Ducks are going to go hard after McCoy, too, as this will be the final game after 24 years with the Ducks for popular defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti.



I don't see a similar motivation for Texas and its departing coach Mack Brown. Word has it the Texas coaches are more interested in getting their resumes out than in coaching this game.

The Rams very well could get shut out in this game. It's not a fluke Seattle is ranked No. 1 in total defense and No. 2 in fewest points allowed. Seattle has the quickest and most athletic defense in football. The Seahawks also have the hardest hitting secondary.




I don't see any way the Rams are going to stay competitive with the Seahawks, who are going to be fully focused after having their 14-game home win streak end this past Sunday against the Cardinals and with the NFC West Division and a first-round bye at stake. Seattle is 7-2 ATS in December and 7-2 ATS following an ATS loss. The Seahawks aren't going to forget either than St. Louis nearly upset them in Week 8.




The Rams are heavily run-oriented, forced to be that way with starting quarterback Sam Bradford out and extremely limited backup Kellen Clemens behind center. Making things worse for St. Louis is its best offensive lineman, left tackle Jake Long, is out. The Rams also could be missing their lone big-play threat, Tavon Austin.




The Rams have a fierce pass rush, but their secondary can be exploited. Russell Wilson is one of the most mobile quarterbacks in the NFL. St. Louis doesn't have the run defense, nor the ballhawks in the secondary that Arizona does.




The Rams have failed to cover in five of their last seven road games. Seattle is the toughest place to play in the NFL. The Seahawks have covered 68 percent of their past 54 home games.

There are no secrets between these two long standing division rivals. The defending Super Bowl champion Ravens desperately need this game to greatly enhance their playoff chances.




The Ravens are coming off a 41-7 home loss to New England. So it's really gut check time for the Ravens, who are 4-0 under John Harbaugh following a loss of 20 or more points.




The Ravens are down from last season. No doubt about that. But they remain well-coached with prideful veterans and a defense that has permitted just four more touchdown throws than interceptions since Week 2.




Despite the presence of the magnificent A.J. Green, the Bengals still are a short passing team afraid to fully trust Andy Dalton despite his strong home statistics.




I know the Ravens will produce an effort. I'm not so sure about the Bengals, who already have won the AFC North Division. They have always lacked a killer instinct.

The oddsmaker has misread East Carolina for the last half of the season. The Pirates have gone over the total in six of their last seven. I'm a strong believer in their offense after they scored 55 on North Carolina and 42 on North Carolina State.



Both teams have balanced attacks with very good quarterbacks. East Carolina's Shane Carden is one of the best. He has averaged 27.5 touchdown passes during the past two seasons. Led by Carden, the Pirates ranked fourth in the nation in points per game at 40.4. Carden has a big-play receiver in Justin Hardy and a solid running back in Vintavious Cooper.



The game is going to be played indoors on the fast track at Tropicana Park in St. Petersburg, Fla.



East Carolina has gone over the total in seven of its last eight games at neutral sites. The Pirates' speed should cause problems for Ohio especially on carpet.



Ohio's offense wasn't as consistent as East Carolina, but the Bobcats did score at least 38 points in five of their last nine games. They, too, have a solid quarterback in Tyler Tettleton, who has been at his best during Ohio's bowl games the past two seasons.

This is a terrible matchup for the Bears, who have one of the worst run defenses of all time giving up 152 yards per game on the ground.




The Eagles lead the NFL in rushing at 152 yards per game. LeSean McCoy is the leading rusher in the NFL with 1,343 yards.




Prior to laying an egg against the Vikings last week, the Eagles had held their past nine opponents to 21 points or less. Chicago has surrendered an average of 31 points during its last four games.




I trust Nick Foles more than Jay Cutler not to commit turnovers. Foles has a fantastic 23-to-2 touchdown-to-interception.




Chicago has failed to cover in nine of its last 11 games versus NFC opponents.

Denver has had 10 days to stew about suffering its first home loss in 14 tries after falling to San Diego.




Peyton Manning is chomping at the bit to take his frustrations out on Houston, which plays far worse than its statistics indicate.




The Texans are a rudderless, dispirited bunch who can't wait for the season to end. They have dropped 12 in a row. Their 3-11 ATS mark is the worst spread mark in the NFL.




The Texans are down to their third-string tailback in a run-heavy offense and may be missing their two top tight ends, too.




Back at quarterback by unpopular demand is washed-up Matt Schaub, who the few fans who come to the game will be pulling against. The Texans lack a passing game to not only keep up with Manning but to have any backdoor capability.

The line is inflated because the Chiefs have been piling up points and Indy has been struggling usually playing to the level of the competition.




These teams, though, are very close. They very well could meet in the first-round of the playoffs. So a conservative, vanilla game plan from both teams might happen with neither wanting to tip their hand knowing they could be meeting again in just two weeks. This is a plus for the underdog.




The Chiefs have built up an impressive 11-3 record by beating bad teams and backup quarterbacks. Their only win against an above .500 team was against Philadelphia in Week 3.




Kansas City has been outgained by 336 yards on the season and is allowing an average of 29.5 points a game during the last four weeks.




The Chiefs' pass rush is down with Justin Houston, who doesn't appear ready to rejoin the lineup this week.

If there is one area Cleveland has been good at lately it's going over the total. The over has cashed in eight of Cleveland's last 10 games.




If both teams reach 20 points, it can be safely assumed this is going over the total. The Browns have reached at least 20 points in all but one of their past six games.




The Jets are better offensively at home, especially their erratic rookie quarterback Geno Smith. In five of their last seven home games, the Jets have averaged 27.6 points.




Cleveland's defense is wearing down and could be missing star cornerback Joe Haden again.




The Jets are strong against the run, weak against the pass. The Browns have no rushing attack so they are likely to pass a lot, especially to Josh Gordon, who leads the NFL in receiving despite being suspended the first two games of the season. Gordon is averaging a mind-boggling 168 receiving yards in his last five games and has scored at least one touchdown in each of those games. He's in line to have another big game against the Jets' porous secondary.

Miami is 3-0 this month, used to playing in cold weather now and needs this game to close in on a playoff berth. A win against the Bills and a victory next week against the Jets and the Dolphins are in.




The Dolphins have a superior talent base to Buffalo with victories against three division leaders - Cincinnati, Indianapolis and New England.




Ryan Tannehill has shown excellent improvement. Only eight quarterbacks have thrown for more touchdowns. Buffalo rookie quarterback E.J. Manuel, on the other hand, is showing more regression than improvement. Buffalo ranks 29th in passing.




The Dolphins have a balanced attack and catch a nice break if Buffalo's underrated defensive tackle Marcell Dareus can't play.




The Bills are 0-8 ATS the past eight times following a victory.

Washington State coach Mike Leach isn't adverse to running up a lot of points. His pass-happy Cougars certainly will try to do that in the New Mexico Bowl and they have the right team to do it against - Colorado State.




The Rams rank 109th out of 123 teams in pass defense. Colorado State has this terrible ranking despite getting to play against three option teams who rarely pass - Cal Poly SLO, New Mexico and Air Force.




Washington State throws the ball more than any team behind Connor Halliday. That's Leach philosophy.




Colorado State is no slouch offensively either. The Rams are far more balanced. They have one of the better running backs in the league in Kapri Bibbs. The Rams are a top 30 team in points and yards per game.




There's a chance of snow, but the wind won't be brisk at about 10 mph. Both teams are used to playing in cold weather so that shouldn't factor.




So look for a fun matchup between two teams excited to be in a bowl game with plenty of scoring.

This isn't just about backing a Pac-12 team against a Mountain West Conference opponent, although it should be noted Pac-12 squads were 10-0 (7-3 ATS) when playing Mountain West foes this season.




No, this bowl matchup has one of the biggest strength of schedule differences. The Cougars played a far more difficult schedule than Colorado State. Not only did Washington State have to take on Pac-12 teams, but also tangled with Auburn losing by just seven on the road.




The Mountain West was top heavy this season and the Rams lost to some of the better teams, including Boise State, Utah State and San Jose State. Colorado State hasn't beaten a good team all season.




Washington State covered all six of its road contests, five of which were against bowl-bound teams. Colorado State lost to Colorado, the second-worst team in the Pac-12, by 14 points at a neutral site.




Connor Halliday finished fourth in the nation in passing for Washington State. Colorado State played three option teams yet still ranked ahead of only 14 teams in pass defense.




This is Washington State's first bowl game since 2003 so the Cougars should be pumped.

Detroit averages better than 32 points at home. The Ravens' defense isn't nearly as good as last season and it has no intimidation factor on the road.



Reggie Bush is expected back in Detroit's lineup. If Detroit can avoid turnovers - which it should be able to do - it should put up a lot of points.



Baltimore's tackling was atrocious last week against a much inferior Vikings offense. The Ravens have only five sacks in their last four games, none during their past two.



The Ravens have to be careful about blitzing knowing they can be burned big time by Bush and Calvin Johnson.



I see Baltimore getting its share of points, too. Joe Flacco has a history of playing well down the stretch and he came up big last week. The Ravens' offense gets a big boost with star tight end Dennis Pitta back. Pitta's presence opens up things for deep threat Torrey Smith.



The Lions entered this week ranked 25th in pass defense surrendering more than 255 yards per game through the air. Detroit's defensive line is better stopping the run than getting to the quarterback.



Both teams are excellent in the return game, too. Jacoby Jones is one of the best returners in the game. Hopefully, Jim Schwartz won't get in his way by going on the field like Mike Tomlin did. Baltimore ranks No. 1 in punt return yardage and is sixth in kickoff returns.



Jeremy Ross has emerged as dangerous returner for Detroit averaging 19.9 yards on punt returns and 33.5 yards per kickoff return.



Both kickers are aided by kicking in a dome. Baltimore's Justin Tucker has made 27 straight field goals, many in tough outdoor conditions.

This is the Steelers' Super Bowl. Pittsburgh will be going all out against its hated division rival.



The Bengals are a much different team on the road, averaging 19.3 points per game. That's 14 points less than what they average at home.



Cincinnati has a losing road record. The Bengals only have one away win by more than a field goal.



Pittsburgh has won and covered five of the last seven in the series. A key to Pittsburgh's success is its defensive coordinator, Dick LeBeau, being able to successfully control Andy Dalton, who is completing just 52.3 percent in five career games against Pittsburgh with a 5.76 YPA and a 5-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio.



Ben Roethlisberger is having a big season for Pittsburgh and has been hot his last four games with a high QB rating and a 9-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Quietly the Cardinals have become one of the better teams in the NFL. Since opening week, their only losses have been to the Saints, 49ers and Eagles on the road and against the Seahawks. They are 7-1 ATS versus opponents with a losing record.



The Titans, on the other hand, have only beaten the Raiders and Rams since opening 3-0. They are not going to make the playoffs and morale is suffering. Tennessee is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 December games, also.



Ryan Fitzpatrick has once again proved too turnover prone and is going against an elite defense. The Cardinals have 38 sacks and a stout run defense allowing only five rushing touchdowns.



Carson Palmer finally has bought into offensive guru Bruce Arians' system and the result is Arizona has produced 27 or more points in five of its last six games.



The Cardinals are the superior team and have motivation.

Unlike some games, weather isn't going to impact in this matchup.



The Cardinals have gotten hot offensively averaging 28.6 during their last six games. Carson Palmer has gotten comfortable in Bruce Arians' offense throwing for more than 1,200 yards during the last four games with an 8-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio.



Larry Fitzgerald is a superstar wide receiver and Michael Floyd is enjoying a breakout season.



The Titans also have two breakout wide receivers in Kendall Wright and Justin Hunter. The Cardinals' secondary took a big hit losing star safety Tyrann Mathieu.



The over has cashed in Tennessee's last five home games.

The Dolphins opened as a fashionable underdog and have drawn all the early money knocking the line into the pick range.



But this doesn't mean the Dolphins are the right side here - because they are not.



The Dolphins are a very mediocre team. They lack star power at the skill positions and their maligned offensive line with all its bad karma has surrendered a league-high 48 sacks.



New England has proven it can win without star tight end Rob Gronkowski going 5-1 this season without him. Tom Brady still has plenty of weapons without Gronkowski. New England averages 26.8 points per game. Miami has exceeded 26 points in a game only twice.



The Patriots have owned Miami, too, winning the past seven meetings. The Patriots face the Ravens in Baltimore next week. So they need to win this matchup.

I'll take a full touchdown with Washington. Who are the Falcons to lay these kinds of points?

Atlanta has been the biggest disappointment in the NFC this season. The Falcons rank 30th in run defense and start five rookies on defense.

The Redskins made the right choice in benching RGIII. Kirk Cousins has starter potential and can provide a needed a spark. With Alfred Morris the Redskins' No. 2 ranked rushing attack can play ball control and move the ball on Atlanta's weak rush unit.

The Redskins have several excellent pass rushers. Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan has been sacked 11 times during the past two games.

I like Jim Harbaugh in same-season revenge, especially at home where the 49ers are 19-8-1 ATS in their past 28 home contests. San Francisco has beaten the Seahawks the past four times at home.


The Seahawks dealt the 49ers a 29-3 loss in Week 2. Now it's the 49ers turn to win. Seattle is far less intimidating on the road.


Colin Kaepernick is playing better now that he has his full complement of wide receivers with Michael Crabtree back.


The Seahawks' secondary is down Brandon Browner and Walter Thurmond.

Baltimore plays much better at home going 7-1 ATS in its last eight. This is a key game, too, for the Ravens since they are in the playoff hunt and their closing three games are against much tougher opponents - Lions, Patriots and Bengals.



The Vikings are off two tough division games. They tied the Packers on the road two weeks ago in overtime and then edged the Bears in overtime at home. The Ravens also are off a tough division game - but that was on Thanksgiving so they've had extra rest.



The Vikings' motivation won't be as high as the Ravens. The weather forecast is for rain and temperatures in the 30s. The Ravens are 7-1 at home since 2008 when the game-time temperature is 33 or below.



Minnesota is practically a one-man team with Adrian Peterson. The Ravens rank No. 6 in run defense. They've allowed an NFL-low two rushing touchdowns. Baltimore's pass rush is far more effective, too, with facing non-elite quarterbacks.



The Vikings have yet to win on the road this season. Baltimore is 5-1 at home where Joe Flacco has historically has played much better.



The defending world champion Ravens are much the better team with a vastly superior coach and they also draw a favorable situation.

Chip Kelly, Nick Foles and LeSean McCoy get all the attention, but the Eagles' defense quietly has improved holding their last eight foes to 21 points or less.



Detroit has outstanding skill position players. However, the Lions don't play as fast away from their dome setting and are turnover prone having lost the ball 17 times during the last 19 quarters.



Kelly has dialed back his up-tempo offense with Foles instead of Michael Vick. The Eagles need to run effectively, but no team has been tougher than Detroit recently in stopping the run. The Lions have held their last five opponents to under 40 yards on the ground. They haven't surrendered a rushing touchdown during the past 34 quarters.



Neither team has a reliable kicker and weather could factor. The forecast is for temperature in the 30s with a chance of ice pellets.

ASU has improved since losing at Stanford, 42-28, earlier this season and the Cardinal has regressed. Now the Sun Devils get a rare in-season home revenge spot. The Sun Devils have yet to lose in seven home contests.



The winner goes to the Rose Bowl. That's a huge carrot for ASU, which hasn't been to the Rose Bowl since 1997. Stanford, though, had higher hopes - a national championship was in its dreams. The Cardinal won the Rose Bowl last season.



Arizona State is very well coached under Todd Graham and has improved defensively. Stanford is one dimensional. The Sun Devils up-tempo spread offense has gotten deadly. The Sun Devils hung 62 points on USC, 58 on Arizona and 38 on UCLA.



Stanford's defense took a hit with lineman Ben Gardner out. Cardinal kicker Jordan Williamson is limited due to a leg injury.



Arizona State has a key injury to running back Marion Grice, but D.J. Foster has done a nice job filling in after being switched from slot receiver.

Can a team actually suffer a letdown playing in the SEC championship game?


It's going to be difficult for Auburn to regain its focus after this past Saturday's wild finish against Alabama. Because of that victory, there has been an overreaction on the line.


Missouri is the superior team with better statistics, a strong defense and well balanced offense. Missouri has won all of its games by at least seven points. The Tigers' only loss came in overtime to South Carolina and Missouri outplayed the Gamecocks. South Carolina trailed by 17 in that game and converted a fourth-and-long in overtime.


Auburn has been one of the luckier teams pulling off near-miracle victories the past two weeks against Alabama on a return off a missed field goal at the gun and Georgia on a Hail Mary pass.


Missouri has 27 takeaways and led the SEC in sacks. The Tigers held Johnny Manziel to season-low numbers.


Auburn faces overwhelming problems on defense. Missouri not only has a solid quarterback in James Franklin and running back in Henry Josey, but its three best receivers are all 6-foot-4 or taller. This includes 6-6 Dorial Green-Beckham and 6-4 L'Damian Washington who each have scored 10 touchdowns.


Auburn's small secondary was burned big time by Texas A&M's star 6-4 receiver Mike Evans, who caught 11 passes for 287 yards and four touchdowns.

This is for the MAC championship and is being held at Ford Field in Detroit, a neutral site. It's the fourth straight year Northern Illinois is playing at Ford Field having won the last two MAC titles there. Bowling Green hasn't been at Ford Field for the title game since 2003.



Bowling Green is good, but the Falcons aren't in unbeaten Northern Illinois' class. The Huskies are 12-0 and have one of the best quarterbacks in the country and one of the greatest MAC quarterbacks of all time in Jordan Lynch, who has accounted for 2,547 yards passing, 1,755 yards rushing and a combined 43 touchdowns. Lynch will be further aided by playing on carpet.



Northern Illinois has steamrolled through the MAC competition, including defeating Ball State and Toledo, while also beating Iowa and Purdue from the Big Ten.



Bowling Green lost by 32 points to Indiana of the Big Ten and fell to Toledo by three points at home. Northern Illinois defeated Toledo on the road by 18 points. The Falcons also are on the road for a third straight time.



If the Huskies win they would have a shot at earning a BCS bowl bid, which would be huge for the MAC both prestige-wise and financially-wise. So it wouldn't be shocking if Northern Illinois got preferential treatment from the officials.

Sean Payton would like nothing better than to prove his Saints can win a big outdoor road game. They stand an excellent chance tonight against Seattle.


New Orleans' defense is greatly improved and the Saints have a much stronger passing attack. Seattle is a super home team, but once again its home number is inflated. The Seahawks are 3-3 ATS in their last six games CenturyLink Field. The Saints are a take at plus 4 or more with a healthy Brees against any foe.


Drew Brees is 9-0 the past nine times on Monday night with a 123.6 passer rating. He has the weapons to successfully pass on a Seattle secondary missing injured Brandon Browner and suspended Walter Thurmond.


The weather forecast is for temperatures in the high 30s with little wind.


The Seahawks actually have a bigger game on deck when they take on the 49ers next week in a division showdown.

Both teams have key defensive injuries. The Chiefs aren't going to be able to get away with just rushing four players against Peyton Manning with Justin Houston out and Tamba Hali not 100 percent.


The Chiefs have only two sacks in their last four games. Their defense has regressed allowing 68 points and 918 yards. Manning has the weapons, including the return of Red Zone terror tight end Julius Thomas, to pick apart the breaking Chiefs defense.


I see Kansas City turning up its offense a notch to attack a soft Denver secondary that has multiple injuries, including the loss of star free safety Rahim Moore. The Chiefs showed they have the capability of putting up a lot of points on a vulnerable secondary putting up 38 points on San Diego last week with Alex Smith throwing for 294 yards and three touchdowns.


The Broncos have been an over machine going 12-2-1 to the over in their past 15 games.

Under Jeff Fisher, the Rams are a perfect 5-0 ATS when taking eight or more points. It's not a fluke. Fisher is a tremendous 'dog coach and has made the Rams a tougher, more physical team.


St. Louis is playing its best ball right now despite losing starting quarterback Sam Bradford. In their last two games, the Rams have defeated the Colts by 30 on the road and the Bears by 21. They should have defeated the Seahawks four games ago, losing, 14-9.


The Rams have achieved this by applying tremendous quarterback pressure, becoming a run-first team thereby taking the pressure off backup quarterback Kellen Clemens and watching Tavon Austin step up as a dangerous multi-threat.


The 49ers are on a short week following a road victory this past Monday against the Redskins. Prior to facing a Washington defense that gives up the second-most points in the NFL, Colin Kaepernick had passed for 165 yards or less in three straight games.

The oddsmakers have set this total too low. There are a number of under-the-radar factors that will prove this. I feel strongly enough about this to make this my Total of the Year.


First, the game is going to be played in Toronto. But weather shouldn't factor. It's at Rogers Centre where the roof will most certainly be closed. These two teams are used to a fast track and this will be a fast track.


The Bills have played in Toronto the past five years. They are trying to win that market where they become the home team for that Canadian region. So they want to put on an entertaining show.


E.J. Manuel is now three games from his knee surgery. The rust should be off. The Bills rank seventh in the NFL in rushing and Manuel gets back his two best wide receivers, Stevie Johnson and Robert Woods. Atlanta has surrendered 23 touchdown passes and allows for one of the highest passer ratings.


Multiple injuries have help do in Atlanta's defense, which lacked depth and size from the start. The Falcons rank 27th or lower in a number of key defensive categories, including total yards, rushing yards and points allowed giving up more than 28 per game.


This is the easiest defense the Bills have faced in 11 weeks. The last 10 defenses the Bills have seen have all been good-to-excellent - Jets twice, Steelers, Chiefs, Saints, Dolphins, Bengals, Browns, Ravens and Panthers. The Falcons' defense is a huge drop down from these defenses.


The Falcons should be able to get their share of points in what shapes up as a shootout. Matt Ryan no longer can be called an elite quarterback, but he's still way above average. He has some of his weapons back, including Roddy White. The Falcons will benefit from this setting and having had extra prep time having last played a week ago from Thursday. The Bills allow near nearly 25 points per game.

It's nice to be able to play into a total this low when both teams figure to throw the ball at least 30 times.


Virginia has become a passing team while its defense has slipped. The Cavaliers are allowing 42 points a game during their past seven matchups, all of which have gone over the total.


Virginia Tech's defense has slipped, too, giving up 28.3 points per game in its past three contests.


At quarterback the Hokies have Logan Thomas, who owns many of the school's passing records. Thomas won't have to worry about NCAA interception leader Anthony Harris for the first half. Harris will miss the first two quarters after being ejected for targeting during the second half of the Cavaliers' loss to Miami.


The Cavaliers will continue to throw a lot has they try both David Watford and freshman Greyson Lambert at quarterback.


Weather shouldn't factor as the forecast is sunny with temperatures in the 40s and just slight wind.

Both teams are way down this season, but the defending Super Bowl champion Ravens still remain tough at home where they have covered all five of their games.



Baltimore has allowed only two legitimate touchdowns at home this season while giving up an average of 10.8 points per game.



The Steelers lack the necessary ground attack to keep the Ravens, particularly Terrell Suggs who has been a terror against Ben Roethlisbeger, from applying plenty of quarterback heat.



The Steelers are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 road games.



Joe Flacco has a history of playing much better at home and he's coming off one of his best games of the season. Ray Rice should be more effective in this game, too, as the Steelers' No. 23 run defense will be minus injured 325-pound nose tackle Steve McLendon.


As far as playing any props for this game, I would look to go over on sacks for Baltimore, under on receiving yards for Steelers tight end Heath Miller and over on rushing/receiving yards for Ray Rice.


The Ravens rank first in sacks. The Steelers are passing a lot more than perceived and Terrell Suggs as always been a terror against Ben Roethlisberger.


Miller isn't the same since coming back from serious knee ligament surgery. He had only two catches for 17 yards in the team's first meeting this season. The Ravens are extremely tough against tight ends.


Rice should have one of his better games with the Steelers missing McLendon and he will see a lot of touches.

I'm surprised this line is under a touchdown. Yes, the 49ers have lost two in a row. Those two losses, though, were by a combined four points at New Orleans and against Carolina. Those two teams are a combined 16-5.


The Saints and Panthers also have tough defenses. The Redskins have one of the worst defenses in the NFL giving up more than 31 points a game. This is a breakout game for Colin Kaepernick. He'll have a healthy Vernon Davis and Frank Gore, who has totaled 100 yards rushing and/or scored a touchdown in seven of his last eight games.


While the Redskins have a bottom three defense, the 49ers entered Week 12 giving up the fourth-fewest points per game. Robert Griffin III is not close to being what he was last season and will be without his No. 2 and No. 3 leading receivers as tight end Jordan Reed and Leonard Hankerson are out.


San Francisco has covered 74 percent of its last 32 games on grass and is 11-4 ATS following a loss. Washington is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games.

Regarding props, I would also look to play the 49ers over 26 1/2 points and to play on some of their players to have strong individual games.

The Redskins' defense has been dreadful from the start and it hasn't improved. The safeties are among the weakest in the NFL. The 49ers haven't put up strong offensive numbers in their previous two games because they've faced two strong defenses - Carolina and New Orleans.

Now the 49ers step way down in defensive class. Prior to their last two matchups, the 49ers had scored 31 or more points in five consecutive games.

The Colts own victories against the 49ers, Seahawks and Broncos. The Cardinals are not at that level where they could defeat those teams.



The Cardinals can't run the ball and have an inconsistent passing attack. Carson Palmer has more interceptions than touchdown passes. Last week was the first time this season he went a game without being picked off.



The Colts hold a huge quarterback edge with Andrew Luck.



Indianapolis is 21-9-2 ATS versus opponents with a winning record. The Cardinals are 2-5 ATS when meeting an opponent above .500.

This is the first of three consecutive road games for the Titans. After this matchup are games against the Colts and Broncos. The Titans will be big 'dogs in those games. This is the game they need to win - and they know it.



The Raiders are off an upset win against the Texans. After each of their previous three victories this season the Raiders followed it with a loss.



Rookie Matt McGloin is the Raiders' 15th starting quarterback since 2005. He threw three touchdown passes against the Texans. I don't see him duplicating that success against the Titans, who have allowed just seven touchdown passes while intercepting eight passes.



Opponents also have film now on McGloin, who is not considered a major talent. He's not helped playing in back of one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL.



Tennessee also is using a backup quarterback with veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick is playing well, though, completing 44 of 61 passes during the past two games for 486 yards and three touchdowns.



Chris Johnson gives Tennessee the best running back, too, in a matchup that should be decided in the trenches with a lot of running. The Titans hold the edge in the trenches also.

Fresh off their huge and satisfying Monday night home win against New England, the Panthers now have to travel on a short week to play the Dolphins.



Miami is in the playoff hunt and has a respectable defense. A lot has been made of Bullygate, but since Jonathan Martin left the team the Dolphins have gone 2-1.



The Panthers are in a letdown spot and could be missing star defensive Charles Johnson, who has 8 1/2 sacks. He has a sprained knee.



Carolina already has lost to the Bills and Cardinals on the road. The Panthers are vulnerable in this spot against a desperate Dolphins team.

The Hilltoppers are rested off a bye and know how to cover on the road. Western Kentucky has covered 73 percent of its last 27 road contests while also posting a 12-2 ATS mark versus foes with a winning record.



Both Western Kentucky and Texas State are 6-4. The Hilltoppers have achieved their winning mark despite a minus 13 turnover ratio while Texas State is plus 8 in takeaways/giveaways.



Western Kentucky's key is running back Antonio Andrews. He ranks fourth in the nation in rushing and averages 6.2 yards per carry.

LSU is down defensively and could have some motivational issues saddled with three losses, including a 38-17 defeat to Alabama in its last game.



The Tigers are 0-5 ATS following a loss.



Texas A&M has three likely first-round draft picks on offense. They've helped the Aggies roll up nine straight games of more than 500 yards of offense. The Aggies also have scored at least 40 points in 13 consecutive games.



The Aggies need a victory here to earn a BCS Bowl game. Johnny Manziel is trying to win a second straight Heisman Trophy so he'll be highly motivated, too.

Indiana was battered 51-3 at Wisconsin last week. It's going to be worse this week for the Hooisers at Ohio State.



The Buckeyes need style points in an attempt to move into a top two spot in the country. Urban Meyer was not happy with how the Buckeyes played last week against Illinois. The Buckeyes also remember how Indiana gave them a tough battle last season losing 52-49.



Led by superstar quarterback Braxton Miller and superstar running back Carlos Hyde, Ohio State puts up 49.4 points a game. The Buckeyes are in prime form scoring 60 versus Illinois, 56 against Purdue and 63 versus Penn State in their last three games.



Indiana's defense is worse than those teams. The Hooisers allow an average of 53 points and 633 yards per game when playing on the road.

I envision a lot of fireworks in this late season, non-conference matchup.


East Carolina is 10th in the nation in scoring averaging 41.5 points a game. Pirates quarterback Shane Carden is completing 72.5 percent of his throws. Carden should have an effective day with play-action as North Carolina State is weak in run defense.


The Pirates put up 55 points on North Carolina earlier this season.


North Carolina State has gone over in 12 of its past 16 home games when playing an opponent with a winning road record. The Pirates have gone over in 11 of their last 14 November games.

In their last five games, Illinois has faced Ohio State, Indiana, Penn State, Michigan State and Nebraska. Now the Illini steps way down in offensive class taking on Purdue.



It's a great chance for Illinois to end its embarrassing 20-game Big Ten losing streak.



The Illini have a huge edge at quarterback with Nathan Scheelhaase, who leads the Big Ten in total offense. Purdue is taking its lumps with Danny Etling, a true freshman, at quarterback. The Boilermakers are averaging only 12.7 points.



Purdue has failed to cover in its last four home contests.

UNLV is one win away from becoming bowl eligible. So the Rebels won't lack for motivation in this matchup. Unfortunately for warm-weathered UNLV the weather conditions and style of the opposition are huge negatives. So is the fact the Rebels have been horrible on the road covering just 23 percent of their past 51 away contests. This includes a 3-13 ATA mark versus teams with a losing home record.



UNLV, by the way, still can earn a bowl bid by defeating San Diego State at home in its final regular season game.



The weather forecast for Colorado Springs is for a 60 percent chance of snow with temperatures dropping as low as 12 degrees for the night matchup. UNLV last ventured into Colorado this time a year ago to play Colorado State and lost 33-11 as one-point favorites. There was snow in that game and the temperatures were in the 20s. The Rebels committed four first-half turnovers.



The Rebels have failed to cover during their last five visits to Air Force. UNLV also is 2-8 ATS following a bye.



The Falcons are down this season. This is their fourth consecutive year of having a worse record than the year before. But it is the Falcons' final home game of the season and they have revenge for a 38-35 loss to UNLV last year.



Air Force does run the ball well with a deceptive triple option attack. UNLV's major weakness is run defense. The Rebels rank 116th in stopping the run allowing 235.5 yards on the ground.



The weather certainly favors a ground-oriented team. Air Force has run 397 more times than passed. UNLV has attempted 412 passes while calling for 371 running plays, a difference of 41.



If the Falcons get tricky and try to throw they won't have to worry about the Rebels' interception leader, safety Frank Crawford. He's out with an injury.

The Jets come off their bye rested and brimming with confidence having been one of the few teams to keep New Orleans in check during a 26-20 victory.


The Jets have defeated Buffalo in seven of the past eight meetings, going 6-2 ATS. The Jets beat the Bills in Week 3 despite committing 20 penalties for 168 yards. New York held Buffalo quarterback E.J. Manuel to just 19-for-42 throwing.


New York has the No. 1 ranked rushing defense. Manuel is still rusty from having missed four games with a knee injury. Manuel will be without his two leading wide receivers, Stevie Johnson and Robert Woods. Both have been ruled out with injuries. In addition, C.J. Spiller isn't close to 100 percent bothered by an ankle sprain.

The Texans have out-yarded their opponents by more than 1,000 while ranking No. 1 in total defense and pass defense.

This road contest is too daunting of a challenge for the Raiders minus their top running back, Darren McFadden, and most likely their starting quarterback, Terrelle Pryor.

Rookie quarterback Matt McGloin is slated to make his first NFL start. McGloin has to go against their fierce defense behind one of the worst offensive lines and with below average skill position talent.

Case Keenum isn't making the bad mistakes Matt Schaub was. The frustrated Texans would like nothing more than to steamroll the Raiders for their sick coach and to regain their confidence.

There were 60 points scored when these two teams met opening week with the Eagles winning, 33-27. Neither defense has improved since then.


The Redskins rank second-to-last in points allowed giving up 31.9 per game. Philadelphia is second-to-last in yards allowed and in pass defense. Washington has gone over in six of its last eight road contests, while the over is 10-4-1 during the Eagles' past 15 home games.


Robert Griffin III was rusty in the first meeting. Griffin hasn't reached his rookie magic of a year ago, but he is coming on completing 80 of his last 128 throws (62.5 percent) for more than 1,000 yards. He shouldn't have any trouble passing against such a weak secondary especially with the Eagles forced to pay attention to Alfred Morris, who is the third-leading rusher in the NFL.


Nick Foles has proven he can do the job. He has accounted for 17 touchdowns without an interception. The last time he faced a secondary this week he threw seven touchdown passes against the Raiders. Foles also has an outstanding running back to keep the defense honest with LeSean McCoy, who is the leading rusher in the NFL.

It has been a terrible year for the Falcons, the worst by far of Mike Smith's six-year tenure. But the Buccaneers beating a disjointed Dolphins squad on Monday night doesn't erase the fact that Atlanta still is at least one level higher than Tampa Bay.



The Falcons have a lot of pride under Smith, having made the postseason under him four of the past five seasons. They are a much better organization than Tampa Bay with a far superior coach and quarterback.



Playing on grass hasn't hurt the Falcons in Tampa Bay as they've won and covered during their past four visits. The Falcons have been racked by injuries this year, but are starting to get back some of their key people, including wide receiver Roddy White and linebacker Sean Weatherspoon.



Before playing Miami with its inept offense, the Buccaneers had allowed 31, 31, 31 and 27 points in their previous four games. They do not generate much quarterback pressure, which is needed to rattle Ryan.



Ryan shredded the Buccaneers for three touchdowns and 273 yards passing when Atlanta beat the Bucs, 31-21, in Week 7.



The Buccaneers have been hit by injuries on their offensive line and now are without sparkplug running back Mike James, who had replaced injured Doug Martin. That leaves Tampa Bay with an immobile rookie quarterback and a running attack that is composed of castoffs.



Even with their victory against Miami, the Buccaneers are still 5-19 ATS as a home underdog. They are 1-13 straight-up when foes weren't resting their starters. They don't figure to be so motivated with the national spotlight moving away from them and having achieved their first win.

San Diego State's balanced offense should score at will against Hawaii, which is giving up 37.3 points per game. The Rainbow Warriors rank 109th in total defense allowing 470.9 yards per game.



The Aztecs are averaging 35 points in their last five games. However, San Diego State also has yielded an average of 31.8 points in its last five games.



The over has cashed in nine of Hawaii's last 11 home games.

Hawaii is back home, but that's not necessarily as good as you might think. It means the Rainbow Warriors have traveled nearly 10,000 miles during the last 10 days. They also are 4-10 ATS during their past 14 home contests.



Hawaii played at Utah State two weeks ago and were hammered, 47-10. Utah State accomplished that 37-point victory minus injured star quarterback Chuckie Keeton.



The Rainbow Warriors then traveled to the East Coast to meet Navy in their longest road trip ever. Hawaii lost 42-28.



It's hard to see the demoralized and obviously fatigued Rainbow Warriors having much left in the tank for this matchup. Hawaii is 0-9 this season and 3-18 under Norm Chow, who could be on his way out after this season.



The Aztecs have covered nine of their last 12 Mountain West Conference matchups. They need this victory to become bowl eligible. San Diego State may not get a bowl bid if it doesn't win this game. The Aztecs finish against Boise State and on the road against much-improved UNLV.



San Diego State has faced a number of outstanding quarterbacks - Oregon State's Sean Mannion, Nevada's Cody Fajardo, Fresno State's Derek Carr and San Jose State's David Fales. The Aztecs' only non-cover against these foes came against Fresno State went they lost in overtime by seven as 6 1/2-point underdogs.

There is going to be a ton of scoring in this matchup with neither team looking to run much at all.



Oregon State, behind prolific passer Sean Mannion, is averaging 37.2 points per game. That total goes up to 46.5 points a game when the Beavers are on the road.



Until they were held to 20 points by Utah, Arizona had averaged 54 points in its three previous games. The Sun Devils have scored

53 or more points five times this season.



Oregon State has gone over in 10 of its last 14 games while Arizona State has gone above the total in 26 of its last 36 games.

Houston just missed pulling a huge upset at Central Florida last week falling, 19-14, to the Knights in what was a battle for first place in the American Athletic Conference.



The Cougars are down and now have to travel to Louisville to face the 19th-ranked Cardinals.



Louisville starts fast having outscored its opponents, 75-6, in the first quarter. I see the Cardinals jumping out fast on the demoralized Cougars and coasting to an easy win.



Teddy Bridgewater is the consensus No. 1 overall draft pick right now. He's completed 71.4 percent of his throws for 2,845 yards and has a 24-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio.



The Cardinals not only have the best quarterback in the country, but also the No. 1 scoring defense holding foes to 10.6 points a game.

Auburn can't help but notice that its next game is against Alabama. But there isn't going to be an SEC West showdown because I don't see the Tigers getting past Georgia.


The Bulldogs are extremely dangerous to the Tigers because of their strong run defense and star running back Todd Gurley healthy again.


I'll take Aaron Murray and Todd Gurley over Auburn's skill position players. Georgia has beaten the Tigers during the past two meetings by a combined 76 points.


Auburn has played an easier SEC schedule than Georgia. The only really tough SEC foe the Tigers have met is LSU and they lost to them, 35-21. Georgia defeated LSU, 44-41.


Not only is Georgia's run defense, but the Bulldogs haven't surrendered a touchdown pass in their last three games. Georgia is healthy and underrated in this spot.

Granted, both of these teams have excellent defensive front sevens. The 49ers have a solid secondary, too.


But each team's offense is playing at a high level, too, and in today's NFL offense trumps defense making this total too low.


Sparked by a bruising ground game that has averaged 184 yards rushing in their last five games, San Francisco has scored 31 or more points during this span. The 49ers have gone over the total in 12 of their last 15 games.


Carolina, with Cam Newton playing his best ball, is averaging 31.2 points during its last four games. Newton has another weapon at his disposal, too, with Jonathan Stewart back. Stewart is Carolina's most talented running back.


It's hard to defend Newton and Colin Kaepernick because not only are they passing well, but they are the two best running quarterbacks in the league. Kaepernick has the mobility to escape Carolina's excellent pass rush and take advantage of the Panthers' vulnerable secondary that has been rocked by injuries and cornerback Chris Gamble's retirement.

Embarrassed and humiliated after giving up 55 points to New England last week, the Steelers will be fired-up for this matchup. Luckily, they draw a gutsy but bad Buffalo team.



The Bills need to win the turnover battle to win because their talent is so lacking. Buffalo gets back its starting quarterback, E.J. Manuel. But Manuel still is a rookie and figures to be rusty after being out the past four games following a knee injury.



Since Dick LeBeau took over as defensive coordinator in 2004, the Steelers are 16-2 when going against a rookie quarterback. Just four games ago, the Steelers beat the Jets and their rookie quarterback, Geno Smith, 19-6. Rookies have a hard time facing LeBeau's various zone blitzes.



Pittsburgh's defense is long in the tooth, but it's a prideful unit that had held up fairly well until being torched by Tom Brady. E.J. Manuel is no Tom Brady.



The Steelers' much maligned offensive line gets a lift with the return of right guard David DeCastro. That should help the ground attack while setting up Ben Roethlisberger for play action facing a Buffalo secondary that has allowed 20 touchdown passes, which was the most given up entering this Week 10.



Buffalo doesn't have a good track record either on the road. The Bills are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games, including 1-3 ATS this season.

The oddsmaker and marketplace have way overreacted to Aaron Rodgers not being available for this game.



Thrown in unexpectedly against the Bears this past Monday night, it was no surprise Seneca Wallace looked terrible. Wallace will be coached up this week and, for the first time, will get enough reps in practice to get the rust off.



The Packers still have a very solid offense without Rodgers with Eddie Lacy, emerging as one of the better running backs in the league, along with a deep group of wide receivers and an offensive line that will be fired-up for this game. Keep in mind, too, how bad Philadelphia's defense is. The Eagles rank last in total defense and last in pass defense.



The Eagles are going with their own backup quarterback, Nick Foles. Green Bay has greatly improved its run defense. The Packers have a deep defensive line group so they can stay fresh going against the Eagles' up-tempo offense. The Packers also could have back Clay Matthews, their best pass rusher.



Even with that loss to Chicago, Green Bay still has won 18 of its last 20 games at Lambeau Field going 15-5 ATS.



The Packers have the talent, drive and motivation to prove they can win without Rodgers. They certainly can accomplish that against a flawed Eagles team that has their own backup quarterback going.

Based on how these offenses have found their groove and the weakness of the two defenses, I expect to see this total soar above the posted over.


San Diego State is averaging 35.2 points in its last four games. The Aztecs' offense is better under quarterback Quinn Kaehler and their offensive line has stabilized. San Jose State ranks 93rd in total defense.


The Spartans are averaging 39 points in their last four games. David Fales is one of the better quarterbacks in the country, but since their fifth game the Spartans have averaged 216 yards rushing per contest.


San Diego State ranks 108th in pass defense.

This has been a close series recently, but this year is different. The Crimson Tide is far stronger than the Tigers and are peaking now.


Alabama has outscored its last four SEC opponents this season - Mississippi, Kentucky, Arkansas and Tennessee - by a margin of 170-17.


Now you can argue LSU is better than those teams, although the Tigers did lose to Mississippi. But the Tigers still aren't within two touchdowns of the Crimson Tide. Losing seven defensive players to the NFL like the Tigers did after last season has put them in this weakened position.


LSU yielded 196 rushing yards to Georgia and 176 rushing yards to Mississippi in losing both of those road games. The Bulldogs piled up those rushing yards despite losing star running back Todd Gurley with a sprained ankle after he only had eight carries. Alabama has three good running backs to take advantage.


The Tide also has stepped up their passing game. A.J. McCarron hasn't been sacked during the past 17 quarters. It should be noted, too, that Alabama is 33-2 with McCarron under center.

Hawaii can pass on Navy, has seen option attacks similar to Navy and catches the Midshipmen in a down spot.


Navy played its heard out in nearly defeating Notre Dame last week, losing 38-34. The Midshipmen are 4-9 ATS the week after playing the Irish.


Hawaii has played a more difficult schedule than Navy. The Rainbows give up a respectable 3.8 yards per run. The Rainbows also can throw the ball averaging nearly 300 yards passing. Hawaii quarterback Sean Schroeder has 13 touchdown passes in his last five games. Navy gives up 69 percent completions.


Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo is an alum of Hawaii so he's not looking to run up a score. The Midshipmen haven't been good as home favorites either going 12-20-1 ATS as home chalk.

Dwindling morale caused by a four-game losing streak and realistically realizing they probably won't be playing in a bowl game for the first time since 2004 is a problem for Nevada. So is attrition.


The Wolf Pack have defensive injuries and are playing on the road for the fourth time in their last five games and second time in two weeks. Nevada has failed to cover in seven of its last 10 road matchups.


Nevada would need to defeat Colorado State, San Jose State and BYU to earn a bowl bid. That's not likely to occur and the Wolf Pack players know it.


Colorado State is home for the second consecutive week. The Rams should light up Nevada's battered defense, which is giving up 36.8 points a game and ranks 121st in total defense allowing 513.1 yards per contest.


The Rams are averaging 38 points and 549 yards a game when playing at home. Colorado State is averaging 41 points during its last five games.

The Redskins have the better coach, quarterback and motivation to beat the Vikings by more than a field goal. These three edges are magnified even more on a short week.


Robert Griffin III is running more each week as he tries to regain his superstar status of a year ago. Griffin, even at 80 percent, is far superior to Christian Ponder and Minnesota's other worthless quarterbacks. Ponder is without his security blanket, too, with tight end Kyle Rudolph out with a broken foot.


Griffin should put up big numbers against a decimated Vikings secondary than ranks 29th in pass defense.


The Redskins are highly motivated after holding off San Diego last week in overtime thanks to a goal line stand at the end of regulation. The Redskins know they're still alive in the weak NFC East.


The Vikings aren't so fortunate. They are hopelessly out of contention at 1-7 with road games looming the next two weeks against Seattle and Green Bay. Leslie Frazier is in over his head as coach of the Vikings. The Vikings face a fatigue factor, too, as this marks their third night game in 18 days.

The Packers have won 18 of their last 19 regular season home games. They are 15-4 ATS in these games. They've defeated Chicago six consecutive times.


Green Bay has a couple of important players out - Clay Matthews and Randall Cobb. But the Bears' injury situation is far worse.


The Bears are without Jay Cutler and their defense is minus star defensive tackle Henry Melton along with linebackers Lance Briggs and D.J. Williams. Star cornerback Charles Tillman has a sore knee and 33-year-old Julius Peppers has one sack. The Bears still can be opportunistic on defense, but much of their talent and leadership is gone from that side of the ball with Brian Urlacher retired and Lovie Smith let go.


Chicago's defense entered this week ranked 27th in yards and 29th in points allowed. Sparked by rookie running back Eddie Lacy, the balanced Green Bay offense has gained 449, 438, 357 and 464 yards in its last four games. The Packers entered the week averaging 30.3 points per game.


It's safe to assume Green Bay is going to get its share of points against a Chicago defense that no longer is any good. The Bears' offense isn't going to be able to keep up with 34-year-old backup Josh McCown, who has a career passer rating of 72.

The Ravens have owned the Browns winning the past 10 meetings, covering seven of them. Cleveland is averaging less than 11 points during the last eight games against the Ravens.


The Browns haven't broken 17 points in six of their eight games.


Baltimore's defense still is good and Cleveland's offense still is rotten. The Browns have no ground attack and their quarterback is 32-year-old journeyman Jason Campbell, who has a special knack for making everyone around him worse. Don't be fooled by Campbell's semi-decent performance last week against Kansas City. He is an immobile quarterback with a long windup, a sitting duck for Terrell Suggs. The Browns were so down on Campbell they actually went to Brandon Weeden first after Brian Hoyer went down.


Joe Flacco and Ray Rice are having down years for the Ravens. They have a history of playing better during the latter part of the season. Baltimore was idle last week. This is a crucial matchup for them. They can get back in the division race with a victory here and next week hosting AFC North leader Cincinnati.


The addition of Eugene Monroe and the subtraction of Bryant McKinnie has improved Baltimore's offensive line. Flacco has a cleaner pocket now and his receivers finally are healthy.


The Ravens are poised to make a move - starting with this game.

I don't consider the Chiefs, the league's lone unbeaten team, to be a serious Super Bowl threat. But the Chiefs are far superior to the Bills.


This gap may grow even wider because of Buffalo's injuries. Thad Lewis has sore ribs. Star running back C.J. Spiller missed last week's game with a sore ankle. Neither may play Sunday. That would spell disaster for the Bills.


So I'm getting on the Chiefs now in full anticipation of the line climbing.


The Chiefs are giving up 12.3 points per game, fewest in the NFL. They lead the NFL in sacks with 36. The Bills are surrendering 14 more points per game than Kansas City.


The Bills need to come up with turnovers to beat decent teams. They intercepted five passes to beat Baltimore at home by just three points. Alex Smith doesn't commit turnovers. The Chiefs rank first in the NFL in takeaways/giveaways at plus 12.

This is the Cowboys' lone home game during a five-week span and they're in position to explode on the Vikings.


Tony Romo has a 24-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio during his last nine home starts. He's facing a down-in-the-dumps Vikings defense that ranks 29th in pass defense and 27th in sacks.


The Vikings also are going to be without three-fourths of their secondary as both of their safeties are out with injuries along with cornerback Chris Cook. Dallas' offensive line has given up the ninth fewest sacks, so Romo should have a clean pocket to light up Minnesota's vulnerable defensive backfield.


Minnesota should get its share of points, too. The Cowboys rank last in total defense and pass defense. They also are giving up 4.4 yards per carry. That's good news for Adrian Peterson.

You know San Diego State is going to gets its points against New Mexico. The Aztecs are averaging 32.4 points in their last five games and have the balanced attack and skill position players to take full advantage of a woeful Lobos defense than ranks 116th in total defense allowing 480.4 yards per game and is 115th in scoring defense permitting 37.3 points a game.



San Diego State very well could have beaten both Oregon State and Fresno State last Saturday night losing in overtime to the Bulldogs.



New Mexico, though, can put up its share of points, too. The Aztecs didn't dispatch hapless New Mexico State until the fourth quarter when they played the Aggies. New Mexico ran for an unbelievable 541 yards against the Aggies.



The Lobos run a bizarre option offense that ranks No. 3 in rushing yards. Running back Kasey Carrier averages 122.6 rushing yards per game while quarterback Cole Gautsche averages 87.2 yards on the ground. The Lobos have run for 24 touchdowns. New Mexico's option attack is going to be quite a contrast for San Diego State after just playing Fresno State.

The line is higher than it should be based in large part on Pittsburgh losing to Navy last week.



I see the Panthers rebounding strong here. They will be prepared to face Georgia Tech's option attack having just seen Navy. Earlier in the season, the Panthers played New Mexico, another option team.



Georgia Tech is not strong enough to lay this many points against this caliber of opponent. The Yellow Jackets have lost by 18 to BYU and by 15 to Miami.



Led by Devin Street, Pitt's career leader in receptions, the Panthers have good wide receivers. Georgia Tech allowed Virginia's David Watford to complete 43 passes and throw for 376 yards against it last week. Pittsburgh's passing attack is better than Virginia's.

Clemson's offense has cooled off a bit, but still averages 37.4 points a game. The Tigers should get back on track with a scoring explosion against the Cavaliers.


Clemson's star quarterback Tajh Boyd is healthier than he has been the past couple of weeks and the Cavaliers have fallen apart on defense giving up an average of 36.2 points during their past four games. Virginia's defense suffered a key blow when defensive tackle Brent Urban was injured three weeks ago. The Cavaliers haven't been able to slow opponents down since.


Virginia is passing more than ever. Last week, Cavaliers quarterback David Watford set a school record for passing attempts (61) and completions (43) in throwing for 376 yards against Georgia Tech.


Clemson is going to score a lot of points so Watford figures to be passing a lot again.

Minnesota, with its total lack of a passing game, isn't going to be able to stay within double-digits of Indiana.



The Hoosiers rank eighth in the country in points per game at 42.4. Indiana scored the most points against Michigan and Michigan State than any other team. Those teams have way better defenses than Minnesota.



The Gophers scored 13 points on Michigan. The Hoosiers put up 47 on the Wolverines. Minnesota scored seven points versus Iowa and 20 against Northwestern.



The Gophers did just beat Nebraska, 34-23, as 10 1/2-point home 'dogs last week. That gave the Gophers their sixth victory and makes them bowl eligible. It also puts the Gophers in a huge letdown spot.



Indiana, on the other hand, desperately needs this game. Indiana is 3-4. The Hooisers need three more wins to become bowl eligible, which is a huge deal in Bloomington. They host Illinois next week. They close at home against Purdue. However, in between those games are road matchups at Ohio State and Wisconsin, which figure to be losses.



So this is a must win game for Indiana. They have the motivation and huge offense to cover a double digit spread.

Virginia Tech is off a stunning home loss to Duke. The Hokies still can reach the ACC title game, but they can't take another loss. They should be sky high for this matchup.



The Hokies rank No. 3 in the nation in total defense holding foes to 248.8 yards per game. They are fifth in scoring defense allowing 14.8 points a game.



Virginia Tech has achieved this high defensive ranking having faced better quarterbacks than Boston College's Chase Rettig, who doesn't have a good history when facing quality opponents.



Rettig looks almost exclusively to Alex Amidon, who has 46 receptions. The next closest Boston College wide receiver to Amidon is Bobby Wolford with just eight catches.



Virginia Tech has a top defensive back, Atone Exum, who can lock up Amidon.

After laying an egg on Monday night and being a laughing stock all week, the Vikings are going to come out with their "A" effort against their biggest rival.


The Packers have multiple injuries, are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games and failed to cover in three of their last four visits to Minnesota.


The Vikings aren't nearly as bad as they looked against the Giants. Josh Freeman, mercifully, will not be behind center. The Vikings have the best running back in football, Adrian Peterson, to help out Christian Ponder, who also has a good receiving corps headed by former Packer Greg Jennings, who knows his former team well.


Aaron Rodgers is a tremendous quarterback, but his options are limited minus Randall Cobb, James Jones and Jermichael Finely. Because of these missing players, the Packers will be running more than usual. On defense, they miss their best defender, Clay Matthews.


The Vikings have the superior special teams and will be highly motivated. This is going to be a close game.

The spot is right for the Lions to pound the Cowboys.


Dallas is off an impressive offense showing against Denver and division victories over the Giants and Eagles. The Cowboys are 5-15 ATS following a victory.


The Cowboys have key injuries. Their best running back DeMarco Murray didn't play last week and their best defensive player, DeMarcus Ware, is likely out again with a quad injury. The Cowboys lack a pass rush without Ware and Anthony Spencer, their second-best pass rusher who is out for the season.


The Lions have a top-flight defensive line that can shut down Dallas' ground attack, which is way below average minus Murray, and pressure Tony Romo, who can be turnover prone.


Matthew Stafford has a 12-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio when Calvin Johnson has been in the lineup. Johnson had a dominant performance last week against the Bengals. Johnson being in the lineup makes Reggie Bush far more dangerous because defenses can't key on Bush.

The Dolphins have lost three in a row. They have been outgained by 149 yards on the ground and 148 yards passing. It comes out to the opposition averaging close to 50 yards more than Miami per game.


Ryan Tannehill has been sacked more than any other quarterback. He has a sore throwing shoulder and doesn't catch a break as Patriots shutdown cornerback Aqib Talib is expected back this week.


The middle of the Patriots' defense has gotten softer with season-ending injuries to nose tackle Vince Wilfork and linebacker Jerod Mayo, but the Dolphins lack the dynamic ground game to take advantage.


New England has won 33 of its last 36 regular season home games. The Patriots are 22-9-1 ATS in October. They have defeated Miami during the past six meetings.


The Patriots offense is going to start picking up with Rob Gronkowski back in the lineup and Danny Amendola expected to play, too. Gronkowski makes the Patriots far more effective in the red zone.

The Saints have had a slower pace this season. They also are coming off a bye, which could throw off the timing of Drew Brees, who is a rhythm quarterback.


Brees may not have his top target either as star tight end Jimmy Graham could sit out.


The Saints' defense is much improved this season. So is Buffalo's. The Bills have gotten healthier in their secondary, too.


Buffalo runs the ball more than any other team, which eats clock. The Bills may be without their star running back, C.J. Spiller. They will be looking to play a conservative ball-control game with backup quarterback Thad Lewis, who they know can't win a shootout against Brees.

The NFL likes for their teams to put on an entertaining show in London. The Steelers and Vikings did that in the other game played this season in London racking up a combined 61 points. Both teams put up their highest scoring totals of the season in that game.


The 49ers certainly will do their part. Their offense is clicking the best it has all season. The 49ers have scored at least 31 points in their last four games.


San Francisco has rushed 155 times for 698 yards during this span, an average of 4.5 yards a carry. Colin Kaepernick has accounted for six touchdowns without an interception during this time frame. There is a chance for bad weather, but that won't stop the 49ers' ground attack.


The Jaguars have the softest defense in the league ranking last in run defense allowing 153.3 yards per game and are at the bottom in scoring defense surrendering 31.7 points a game. Jacksonville has given up at 34 points in four of its last five games. What really makes this pathetic is nearly all of the Jaguars' opponents have let up in the second half because of big leads.


Jim Harbaugh is not a coach who lets up on the gas especially with the 49ers on a bye next week.


Chad Henne gives the Jaguars a downfield passing threat and he has two good wide receivers in Justin Blackmon and Cecil Shorts. Henne will be throwing a lot here. Maurice Jones-Drew also has started to play better. The 49ers remain without their top pass rusher, suspended Aldon Smith.


In today's NFL world where rules and official's calls are skewed to favor the offense, this total is much lower than what it should be.

Hawaii's offense is coming on, but its defense remains bad. Hawaii is going to have difficulty containing improved Colorado State quarterback Garrett Grayson, who has been doing a good job of getting everyone involved in the Rams' passing attack.



Hawaii is up to 25th in the nation in passing. However, its defense is surrendering 35.3 points a game and 475.8 yards.



Colorado State is averaging 33.1 points a game while giving up 31. The Rams rank 103rd in total defense allowing 451.1 yards a game.



The two teams combined for 69 points last season when they met.

This is my college football total of the year. The total is high, but not high enough to account for what is going to be offensive fireworks.



Derek Carr is setting Fresno State quarterback records. He has three excellent wide receivers. San Diego State doesn't have nearly the defensive backfield to stay with all three. The Aztecs rank 111th in pass defense. They have been burned by good quarterbacks all season and even allowed run-oriented Air Force to complete 65 percent of its passes.



Sparked by Carr, the Bulldogs ranked fifth in the nation in scoring at 45.8 points per game and fifth in yards at 555.2. Their defense, though, is giving up 30.2 points a game.



San Diego State is getting a lift with the emergence of freshman running back Donnel Pumphrey. San Diego State is averaging nearly 28 points a game and 415 yards per game. The Aztecs, however, yield 32.7 points per game, which ranks them 99th.



San Diego State quarterback Quinn Kaehler also has stepped up throwing six touchdown passes in the last two games. Fresno State had allowed 348 yards or more in three of their last four games before playing Idaho and UNLV.



The Aztecs also have dangerous return men on special teams.

A home loss last week to Minnesota has the oddsmaker down on Northwestern. The Wildcats still had more first downs and yardage than the Gophers. They were hurt by turnovers. They also didn't have Kain Colter, their dual threat quarterback. He's back this week.



Northwestern is the better team. The Wildcats could have beaten Ohio State. They caught Wisconsin at a bad time. There's no shame in losing to the Badgers. The Wildcats have won all the rest of their games.



Northwestern is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games. Iowa has failed to cover in five of its last seven home contests. The Hawkeyes also have lost straight-up during six of their last eight meetings versus Northwestern.

The over has cashed four of the last five times in this series and I see the trend continuing.


Carolina has scored at least 30 points in three of its last four games. Cam Newton is playing his finest ball completing 35-of-43 for 464 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions during the last two games. The Panthers have an underrated receiving corps with Steve Smith, tight end Greg Olsen and Brandon LaFell, who is playing his best ball.


Tampa Bay's defense has shown slippage giving up 31 points each to the Eagles and Falcons during its last two games.


Mike Glennon will be making his fourth start. He's improving with each start and has developed chemistry with Vincent Jackson, one of the 10 best wideouts in football. Jackson has hauled in 19 passes during the past two games for 242 yards and four touchdowns.


The Buccaneers won't have injured Doug Martin. I always thought Martin was overrated and his statistics this season prove that as he was averaging just 3.6 yards per carry and had scored only one touchdown. The Buccaneers should be less conservative playing at home and without the need to give Martin the ball 40 times on ineffective runs.


Carolina has an excellent defensive front seven, but injuries and Chris Gamble's retirement have rendered its secondary vulnerable.

The Vikings are giving up 31.6 points per game. The Giants are even worse, allowing 34.8 points a game.


Yet, the oddsmaker have set a rather low total considering how bad these defenses are.


Why? Good question. Both teams have some name pass rushers, but the results aren't there. The Giants have the fewest sacks in the NFL with five. The Vikings have the fourth-fewest with 10.


The Giants have held only one team to less than 31 points a game and that was the Bears, who scored 27. The Vikings have the best runner in the NFL, Adrian Peterson, and are starting Josh Freeman. He wore out his welcome in Tampa, but is better than Christian Ponder and Matt Cassel with a much stronger arm. Freeman isn't accurate, but he's the first quarterback the Vikings have used during the past couple of seasons who at least presents a downfield threat. Freeman's accuracy should go up with defenses stacking the line against Peterson.


The Giants have a dangerous passing attack with Eli Manning throwing to one of the best wide receiving trios in the NFL, Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks and Reuben Randle.


The Vikings rank 30th in pass defense. They have allowed 13 touchdown passes in five games. Their best defensive back, safety Harrison Smith, is out.


The weather forecast is good with clear skies, temperatures in the 50s and hardly any wind.


This matchup shouldn't just go over the total - it should easily sail way over the total.

The Packers' defense has a lot of depth. It has looked very good despite missing Clay Matthews and Brad Jones. The secondary is shored up with the return of safety Morgan Burnett.


Green Bay's defense stopped Joe Flacco last week on the road. It should encounter little problems from Brandon Weeden, one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league and a player the Browns have no confidence in. Weeden lacks pocket presence, makes poor decisions and fails to make big plays. He's only playing because Brian Hoyer got hurt.


Cleveland does have a very solid defense. The Packers haven't faced a cornerback as good as Joe Haden. This is Green Bay's first game minus their star slot receiver Randall Cobb. The Packers could be missing James Jones, too.


If Jones can't play the Packers will be starting Jarrett Boykin, who was their No.4 wideout, and Myles White, brought up this week from the practice squad, will be the team's No. 3 wide receiver, which Green Bay uses a lot.


The Packers are adjusting to the loss of Cobb by going more conservative with an increased emphasis on running the ball and using more tight ends instead of wide receivers. The loss of Cobb also hurts Green Bay's return game. He was their best special teams returner.


The Browns rank No. 1 defensively in yards per play. The Packers are not going to be explosive in this matchup, partly by design and in large part by Cleveland's underrated defense.


The Packers don't want to show too much here. They have a bigger game on deck next week at Minnesota. The Vikings are having their problems, but they will be fired up for that Monday night home game and the Packers know it.

Green Bay is far less potent minus Randall Cobb. The Packers don't have anyone who can match his speed and big-play ability from the slot.


Cobb's absence causes the Packers to readjust their offense where an already emphasized ground attack will get even more work and tight end Jermichael Finley becomes more wide receiver than tight end. It changes the offense from a big-strike one to more of a grind-out-the-yards type.


Defensively, the Packers have a cluster injury problem at linebacker. They are without their best pass rusher and defender Clay Matthews.


The Browns are perceived as a lower rung team because they dealt what is looking like a vastly overrated Trent Richardson. In truth, though, the Browns are much more of a 7-9 to 8-8 team. Their 3-3 record reflects that.


The Browns have a stout defense - ranked No. 1 in holding opponents to 4.4 yards per play - and a very good offensive line and stars at tight end with Jordan Cameron and wide receiver with Josh Gordon. All the Browns are missing is a decent quarterback. But because of that and wrong perceptions, the Browns are priced too low here.

The line is short here. Tennessee has been a tough out this season, but the Titans have played a murderous schedule, are not talented at the skill positions and the 49ers have recaptured their ground attack, which makes Colin Kaepernick more dangerous.


The Titans have a bye next week. It comes at a good time. The Titans have faced three top-five defenses during the past three weeks in the Jets, Chiefs and Seahawks. Not only are these outstanding defenses, but they are extremely physical. The Titans just got through from a very physical 20-13 road loss to the Seahawks. Teams that have played Seattle are 0-5 ATS the following week.


Now the Titans have to take on the extremely physical 49ers defense that features the best inside linebackers in the NFL. Chris Johnson is averaging 3.1 yards per carry and doesn't have a rushing touchdown. Tennessee's defense is down a starter at linebacker.


The 49ers' offense is coming around. Vernon Davis had a monster game last week, the ground game spearheaded by a still highly effective Frank Gore has rushed for a combined 444 yards during the last three games and Kaepernick's confidence is up with the threat of the read-option now back.


The 49ers have done well in October covering nine of their last 11 October games.

The Jets have been getting a lot of mileage out of upsetting the Falcons two weeks ago on Monday night.


New York played well particularly Geno Smith, who played well above his head against a crippled Atlanta team that is turning out to be a fraud.


The Patriots hold a huge talent gap even with their injuries. It's a plus if Rob Gronkowski makes his season debut. But New England doesn't need him to cover this number.


The Jets outplayed the Patriots when they met in Week 2, but still lost by three points. It was the fifth time in the last six meetings the Patriots have won and covered the spread in the series.


Tom Brady has had five more weeks now to get in sync with his new receivers since the team's first meeting. Bill Belichick is a master at confusing rookie quarterbacks such as Smith, who take away the Falcons game has a 4-to-10 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Patriots picked off Smith three times in the fourth quarter.


Smith needs plenty of help on offense, but the Jets have multiple injuries at their skill positions, which weren't strong anyways.


The Patriots are 21-9-1 (70 percent) during their last 31 games in October.

Kudos to San Diego coach Mike McCoy for a solid game plan this past Monday night at home in beating the Colts.


That was a nice win for the Chargers, but it doesn't change the fact they are not a very talented team. Their offensive line is below average, made worse by dealing with multiple injuries, and their wide receivers are well below par, too.


San Diego ranks 25th in pass defense. The Chargers have intercepted two passes and given up 10 touchdowns through the air.


Jacksonville's offense is much better with Chad Henne at quarterback instead of the hopelessly overmatched Blaine Gabbert. Justin Blackmon is a top-15 receiver with Henne behind center. Maurice Jones-Drew is starting to run better.


The Jaguars gave the Broncos their toughest battle of the season in Denver.


I'm not trying to camouflage that Jacksonville is the worst team in the league. But the Chargers are a below average team, too, and are in one of the worst spots of the season.


The Chargers have to travel cross-country for an early Sunday start after having just won perhaps their most satisfying game of the season this past Monday night.


The setting and points are right for the Jaguars to get the cover if not their first win of the season. The Jaguars should be going all out knowing this is a winnable game to satisfy their restless fan base.

The number is going up and I agree with the steam. The Beavers should have no problem here.


Oregon State has a huge quarterback edge, California has yet to cover a spread and has multiple injuries on defense.


Cal is 0-11 ATS going back to last season.


The Bears rank near the bottom in yards allowed at 519.7 per game and points given up at 43.7 per game. Sean Mannion should tear up this defense. Mannion is having a huge year completing better than 67 percent of his throws with a 25-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio.


Oregon State beat Washington State, 52-24, last week on the road. The Cougars had rolled past Cal, 44-22, on the road just two weeks ago.

Virginia has a very good defense. The statistics may not indicate it, but they are skewed because the Cavaliers had to face Oregon in Week 2 where they lost 59-10. The Cavaliers held BYU and Pittsburgh to a combined 30 points.



Duke, on the other hand, surrendered 58 points to Pittsburgh and 38 points to Georgia Tech and 31 to Troy.



This is the Blue Devils' first road game in six weeks. Duke has averaged 12 fewer points per game on the road during the past two seasons. The Blue Devils have failed to cover in seven of their past nine road outings.



It's a huge game for Virginia's embattled head coach Mike London, whose job could be on the line.

Not only is Georgia down physically with its multiple injuries, but now the Bulldogs are down mentally after their major bowl hopes were dashed following a 41-26 home loss to Missouri.



The Bulldogs are allowing 37.7 points per game during their past three games. Vanderbilt has the skill position to take advantage with underrated quarterback Austyn Carta-Sanuels and Jordan Matthews, one of the top wide receivers in the country.



The Commodores also have a much stronger punting game and have had two weeks to prepare for this matchup. Vanderbilt got hot around this time last year winning their last seven while covering six.



Vanderbilt has covered 13 of its last 19 home contests, while Georgia is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games

This probably is South Carolina's best offense in Steve Spurrier's eight years there. Quarterback Connor Shaw and running back Mike Davis are enjoying big seasons.



Tennessee is giving up an average of 35.7 points per game and 471.3 yards per game.



So South Carolina is going to get its points. I see Tennessee scoring its share of points, too. Running back Rajion Neal has emerged to rush for 317 yards and score three touchdowns in his last two games. The Volunteers' ground attack is further bolstered by the expected return of Martin Lane.



Tennessee has gone above the total in eight of its last 11 home games. South Carolina has gone over during its past eight SEC games.

Philip Rivers is having a nice bounce back year thanks to new Chargers coach Mike McCoy. But the Chargers are an extremely limited team with a below-average offensive line that has been dealing with multiple injuries and a secondary that has given up 10 touchdown passes with only one interception.


Andrew Luck is an emerging superstar. He has the better wide receivers and lead running back with Trent Richardson. Luck can take advantage of a Chargers defense that ranks 28th in yards given up and is 27th in pass defense.


The Colts have covered the past eight times they've met a foe with a losing record. Since the Colts drafted Luck last season they have won 15 of 21 regular season games. Thanks mainly to Luck, they have won 11 of 13 games decided by seven points or fewer.


Luck has thrown just two interceptions in his last 156 throws. He already has led Indianapolis to nine fourth quarter comebacks. He is a far better clutch quarterback than Rivers.


The Chargers suffered a tough blow losing former Colts star pass rusher Dwight Freeney. He had led the Chargers in quarterback hurries.


The Colts are at least one level higher than San Diego.

This isn't just a division game, it's a monster rivalry game. The Redskins play the Cowboys extremely tough. Only once during the past 10 meetings between these two teams have the Cowboys won by more than four points. Washington has covered in the last six meetings.


Washington also has covered in 12 of its last 15 division games.


The Redskins were 3-6 at their bye last year and turned their season around. This is the game after their bye. Robert Griffin III has had four games and now a bye to get the rust off and get back into his superstar groove. I'm expecting his best performance of the season as he's continually getting better since returning from serious knee surgery. He should have his full complement of receiving weapons, too, as Washington's tight ends appear healthy.


The Cowboys' offense is clicking, but their defense ranks 30th in passing and 28th in total yards. Dallas has surrendered a score in 13 of its opponent's last 16 possessions.


The Redskins' defense is playing better. It has better talent than their statistics indicate. The Redskins were caught off guard opening week taking on the new look Chip Kelly Eagles and then had to play a fired-up Packers team on the road.


Dallas is not a good home team as evidenced by its 6-13 ATS mark.

Don't get fooled by this past Monday night. The Jets aren't that good. They are in a letdown spot facing a desperate and proud Steelers team and have key injuries.


Pittsburgh's defense remains highly respectable. The Steelers' offense is picking up, too, with rookie Le 'Veon Bell making a difference in the run game and Ben Roethlisberger getting more in sync with his receivers and having security blanket Heath Miller back.


Roethlisberger can take advantage of a battered Jets secondary that won't have Dee Milner and could also be missing Antonio Cromartie.


The Steelers' defense is due to get takeaways. Rookie Geno Smith played well against a soft injury-riddled Falcons defense, but entered that matchup with a 4-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio and being sacked 14 times. Defensive gurus Mike Tomlin and Dick LeBeau have had two weeks to game-plan for Smith.


Smith won't have his best receiver either, in injured former Steeler Santonio Holmes. The Jets won't have suspended tight end Kellen Winslow either.

This is a circle--the-wagons game for the Texans after three consecutive losses.


Last week the Rams got well picking up their first win because they got to play Jacksonville. Now the Texans get well playing the Rams.


There is nothing wrong with Houston's defense. It remains outstanding with J.J. Watt and Brian Cushing in the lineup. There is nothing wrong with Arian Foster and Andre Johnson either. They remain among the best at their respective positions.


Veteran Matt Schaub has been the issue with nine interceptions and pick-sixes in four straight games. Now Schaub is playing for his starting job.


The Texans need to go back to basics and that's run the ball with Foster and Ben Tate. This what I see Houston doing here against a St. Louis defense that ranks 29th versus the run.


The Rams have allowed 508 yards rushing in their last three games. The Rams also are giving up 28.2 points a game, which ranks them 28th. Schaub has been an effective game manager in the past. He should be able to manage well against this weak defense being home and with arguably the best running back tandem in the league to rely on.


Hold off burning those Schaub jerseys this week because I see the Texans winning by double-digits.

BYU coach Bronco Mendenhall has become a master at preparing his defense to stop option offenses. The Cougars host Georgia Tech, which runs a triple option attack.


The Cougars are familiar with the Yellow Jackets. They played them last year and held them to a puny 157 yards and no touchdowns on offense. Georgia Tech failed to make a first down in 10 tries in that game.


BYU is holding foes to less than 17 points a game. The Cougars have allowed only eight rushing touchdowns during their past 17 games.


This is a flat spot, too, for Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets were in balmy Miami last week where the temperature was close to 90. Now they have to travel cross country for this non-conference game into the mountains and high altitude.


Georgia Tech does have a good defense, ranking 19th in the country in total defense and 25th in scoring defense allowing 19 points a game. The Cougars have scored less than 17 points in 40 percent of their games this season.

Colorado State is an improved team, off a bye and in a great situational spot taking on a declining, injury-riddled San Jose State squad.


While the Rams were idle last week, San Jose State had to play late Saturday night at Hawaii, in a game that didn't finish until early Sunday morning. Now the Spartans have to travel into a different time zone and into a much colder climate not to mention high altitude.


Colorado State has won and covered its last five home games. The Rams are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight overall games.


Early season promise surrounding the Spartans and their fine quarterback David Fales has been lost in a wave of injuries. The Spartans have lost their best wide receiver, Noel Grigsby, their top four running backs, and several key defensive players, including cornerback Bene' Benwikere, who is unlikely to play.

Given the class difference and situation, Wyoming should have no trouble covering this number against New Mexico.


The Lobos' statistics have been skewed by beating their in-state rival, New Mexico State, 66-17 last week.


Even with that performance, New Mexico still ranks 111th in total defense giving up more than 467 yards per game and is 108th in scoring defense allowing 35.6 points a game. Wyoming's star quarterback Brett Smith should have no problems carving up this defense.


The Cowboys have had two weeks to stew about losing 42-21 to Texas State as a 10 1/2-point road favorite. Until that defeat, Wyoming had covered all four of its games. Wyoming has covered the last seven times it has met a foe with a losing record and should have additional motivation as this is its homecoming game.


The Cowboys are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games. One of Wyoming's covers was a narrow three-point loss to Nebraska. New Mexico, on the other hand, lost 56-42 at home to UNLV two weeks ago. The win snapped a 23-game road losing streak for UNLV.


The Lobos run a pistol, option-style of offense. Wyoming buried another run-oriented option team in Air Force, 56-23, and have had two weeks to prepare for New Mexico's attack.