The Texans have one of the all-time worst offenses regardless of who their QB is, Tyrod Taylor or Davis Mills. Houston ranks last in points, yards and rushing yards. They are second-to-last in passing yards. The Texans are averaging 10.6 points in their last 10 games.

Seattle's defense has gotten much better. The Seahawks have surrendered 20 or fewer points during regulation in six of their last eight games.

The Seahawks' defense has accomplished this despite a weak offense that doesn't have any semblance of a ground attack. Russell Wilson is having a down year caused in part by a finger injury.

The Texans' defense usually plays hard. Prior to giving up 31 points to the Colts last week, the Texans had allowed an average of 17 points in its past three games.

There doesn't figure to be many points scored in this matchup and what few points are likely to be scored by Army. 

The Black Knights are better than Navy on both sides of the ball. Army ranks 20th in scoring and gives up the 16th-fewest yards per game. The Black Knights are the second-best running team in the nation averaging 301.2 yards. They are No. 1 in average time of possession. They've converted on close to 49 percent of their third down plays and 71 percent on fourth down. 

Navy has a decent run defense. But the Midshipmen have no offense ranking 115th in scoring at 20.4 points a game, 126th in total yards and last in passing yards. They've also turned the ball over 31 times, which is the fifth-highest mark in the country. 

Army shut out Navy last season, 15-0. The Black Knights are 8-3 with a four-game win streak. They've beaten Navy in four of the past five seasons. Jeff Monken has been Army's coach for eight seasons. This is one of his strongest Army teams. 

This is one of Ken Niumatalolo's weaker Navy teams with a 3-8 record. 

Spirits will be high, but I see Army grinding out a double-digit victory with Navy unable to put up enough points to keep this close. 

It's never easy to be the NFL Thursday night road team especially in a non-conference matchup when you don't know your opponent. The Steelers not only find themselves in that role, but also off a huge Sunday victory against the Ravens.

The Vikings, on the other hand, are seeking redemption after becoming the first team to lose to the Lions this season. It's no consolation for the Vikings that they outgained the Lions by nearly 50 yards.

Minnesota had a number of key people out, or injured in that game. The Vikings' defense will get a huge boost with the expected return of linebackers Eric Kendricks, their best defender, and Anthony Barr. Both missed the Lions game.

It's a plus if Dalvin Cook can play. But I don't see the Vikings needing him to cover this small spread. Alexander Mattison is one of the better backup running backs and Kirk Cousins is having a huge statistical season with a 25-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Steelers still are likely to be down their best cornerback with Joe Haden expected to miss a fourth consecutive game.

The Steelers' ground attack has regressed. It's going to be rough on ancient Ben Roethlisberger to perform well behind a bad offensive line on a short week.

Not only do the Patriots and Bills have the two best statistical defenses in the NFL, but there is a strong weather factor, too. Throw in this being a huge division game with two top-notch defensive coaches and you have all the right ingredients for an Under. 

New England is first in scoring defense holding foes to 15.8 points a game. Buffalo is next giving up 16.5 points. The Bills rank No. 1 in total defense. 
The weather forecast is frightful - rain, gusty winds in the 20-40 mph range and cold weather. In other words, Buffalo in December. 

Mac Jones hasn't experienced this type of weather. Bill Belichick is sure to have a sound defensive game plan for Josh Allen, who isn't having the big year he had last season. The Patriots are second in takeaways. 

The Raiders are a difficult team to figure out. But this is an extremely tough situational spot for Washington, off a narrow home win against the Seahawks this past Monday.

Washington has to travel cross-country now on a short week. The Raiders, by contrast, are on extra rest having played last Thursday. 

Las Vegas got its offense back in gear picking up 509 total yards and scoring 36 points against the Cowboys during its Thanksgiving upset victory. 

A special teams checkmark goes to the Raiders, too. Daniel Carlson has been one of the better kickers in the league making 24 of 27 field goals, while Washington is unsettled at kicker. 

It's not just the expected return of Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins that makes the Cardinals worth backing. It's also the disarray that is the Bears and their key defensive injuries.

Khalil Mack is out for Chicago. Aikeem Hicks is questionable. So is Roquan Smith. He's been the Bears' best defensive player with nearly twice as many tackles as any other Bear. His sideline to sideline presence and pass rush threat would be highly missed by the Bears.

Matt Nagy is on his way out. It probably already would have happened if word didn't leak out before the Bears were ready to make the move. The Bears are extremely poorly coached. They were fortunate to beat the winless Lions on Thanksgiving.

The Cardinals are the fifth-leading scoring team in the NFL averaging 28.2 points despite Murray and Hopkins missing three games. Chicago averages 16.3 points. The Bears are last in passing. Their porous offensive line is going to have problems against sack masters Chandler Jones and Marcus Golden, who have combined for 18 sacks.

When I see a total in this range on a Texans game, I have to think Under. Houston has the worst offense in the NFL ranking last in points, total yards and rushing yards. They are second-to-last in passing yards. The Texans' poor offensive numbers aren't completely attributable to rookie QB Davis Mills either. They've averaged 15 points and 221 total yards during their last three games since Tyrod Taylor came back. 

The Colts lead the league in takeaways with 26. The Colts have held five of their last nine opponents to 18 or fewer points. They beat the Texans, 31-3, in the first meeting. Indy is stepping way down in class after surrendering 38 points to the Buccaneers last Sunday. 

Houston is underrated defensively. The Texans rank 15th in pass defense and are in the top 10 in takeaways. They've held their last three foes to an average of 17 points. Safety Justin Reid, perhaps Houston's top defensive player, returns from suspension. 

The Under has cashed the last five times the teams have met in Houston. 

The Lions are a dead nuts Under team with their pop gun attack. Detroit hasn't reached 20 points since opening week. During their last 10 games, the Lions are averaging 14.1 points. The Under has cashed in eight of the Lions' last nine games.

D'Andre Swift is the Lions' lone explosive weapon - and he's not likely to play because of a shoulder injury that knocked him out of the Thanksgiving game.

Minnesota's defense has been a huge disappointment. Multiple injuries have played a role in this. However, Mike Zimmer is a top-notch defensive mind and his team shouldn't have problems holding the Lions' down, especially considering the mindset of Lions coach Dan Campbell, who wants his team to play low-scoring games.

The Vikings will be without their most dynamic player, Dalvin Cook. He's sidelined with a shoulder injury. That ensures a heavy workload for plodding Alexander Mattison, a North/South type runner good for the Under.

I see defense trumping offense here. Georgia is the top defensive team in the country both in fewest yards and points per game. Only once has Georgia allowed more than 13 points and that was giving up 17 to Tennessee in a 34-point victory when the Volunteers scored a late TD during garbage time.

 Alabama has had issues protecting Bryce Young. He's been sacked 33 times, including getting sacked seven times by Auburn in the Crimson Tide's last game. 
The Crimson Tide surrender fewer than 20 points per game. They rank No. 3 in run defense and seventh in total defense. Georgia relies on its ground attack. The Bulldogs rank 60th in passing. 

It has been six years since Alabama last was an underdog. I understand why Georgia is favored here. But these teams are much closer than what the market perceives.
Georgia is 12-0. The Bulldogs have the best defense in the country. No debate there. 

The Crimson Tide, however, have faced the more difficult schedule. While the Bulldogs drew Vanderbilt, Missouri, South Carolina, Georgia Tech and Charleston Southern, Alabama had to play LSU, Mississippi and Texas A&M. 

Yes, Alabama had some close calls. Yet the Crimson Tide still lost only one game going 11-1. They know how to win and certainly are battle-tested. They also desperately need to win this game while Georgia doesn't. If the Crimson Tide loses their season is done. Georgia can take a loss and still would make the College Football Playoffs. 

I'm also attracted to getting this many points with the superior quarterback. Alabama gets that important check mark with Bryce Young. 

UL Lafayette rolled past Appalachian State, 41-13, as 4-point 'dogs on Oct. 12. The Ragin' Cajuns have won 11 in a row. Appalachian State is good. But I don't view Lafayette as a home 'dog again to the Mountaineers.

Maybe the oddsmaker thinks the Ragin' Cajuns are distracted by their head coach, Billy Napier, being named head man at Florida. But Napier will be coaching this game. He recruited this team and has 20 starters back. Lafayette has won the Sun Belt Conference West Division each of the last four years under Napier. The Cajuns didn't get to play in the Sun Belt title game last year, though, because the game was canceled due to COVID-19.

It's been a mistake to lay points against Lafayette at home during Napier's four years there as the Cajuns have covered 73 percent of the 15 times they've been a home 'dog.

I want Western Kentucky and QB Bailey Zappe going for me in this Conference USA title game. The Hilltoppers have revenge for a 52-46 loss earlier this season to Texas San Antonio and have played better than the Roadrunners down the stretch.

The Hilltoppers have won seven in a row going 6-1 ATS. The Roadrunners have failed to cover in their last three games and lost outright to underdog North Texas in their last game. 

Western Kentucky is the No. 1 passing team in the nation thanks to Bailey Zappe, who has thrown for 52 TD passes and nearly 5,000 yards in 12 games. The Hilltoppers rank second in the country in scoring and yards.

The Roadrunners aren't nearly that dynamic. Defensively they are better at stopping the run. They rank 63rd in pass defense. 

In Russ We Trust. That's the way I feel about this Monday night game with Seattle's season and future on the line.

Russell Wilson versus Taylor Heinicke is a huge mismatch. Wilson has had time to get the rust off following his absence from a finger injury. He has two of the three best wideouts on the field and is facing a Washington defense that is down pass rushers Chase Young and Montez Sweat.

Heinicke is playing behind a banged-up offensive line. The Seahawks' defense has gotten better, allowing an average of 15 points per game during their last four games.

The Seahawks have proven themselves in prime time. They are 11-3 during their last 14 Monday night games. The stage is too big for Washington.

The Ravens don't cover as favorites. Baltimore has failed to cover seven of the past eight times as chalk. The Ravens have squeaked out five victories this season by an average winning margin of three points. 

So I'm happy to take points with Cleveland in this division matchup. 

Lamar Jackson is the big star. But I give the Browns a huge checkmark in the trenches. They lead the AFC with 29 sacks. Myles Garrett is No. 1 in the NFL with 13 sacks. The Browns have one of the best offensive lines in football. 

The Ravens are without left tackle Ronnie Stanley, their best offensive lineman, and they have nothing but garbage at running back with J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards both out for the season. If you discount their performance against the Patriots two weeks ago, the Browns have yielded an average of just 13.7 points in their last four games. 

Nick Chubb gives the Browns the best running back. Kareem Hunt is expected to play after being on IR with a calf injury. This outstanding 1-2 punch - maybe the best in the league - takes the pressure off Baker Mayfield. 

The Rams have been pointing to this matchup ever since the Packers eliminated them in the playoffs, 32-18, last January.

If you recall the Rams didn't have Cooper Kupp for that game and Aaron Donald was just a shell of himself suffering from broken ribs. Oh yeah, the Rams QB back then was Jared Goff.

This time around Kupp and Donald are at full strength. The Rams' QB situation is immeasurably improved with Matthew Stafford instead of Goff. The Rams have had two weeks, too, to rest and prepare. This should help newly acquired Odell Beckham Jr. get up to speed in Sean McVay's offense.

The Packers are minus two of their three best defensive players with cornerback Jaire Alexander and linebacker Za'Darius Smith out. Emerging pass rusher Rashan Gary also isn't likely to play. The Vikings exposed the overachieving Packers defense scoring 34 points on them last week. LA has permitted only 15 sacks. I see Stafford having ample time to pick apart Green Bay's secondary.

Donald is going to cause havoc to the Packers' offensive line, which is missing their two best linemen with David Bakhitari and Elgton Jenkins out. The Packers also are without their starting center, Josh Myers. Right now the Packers' left tackle is third-stringer Yosh Nijman.

Special teams continue to plague the Packers, too. Mason Crosby could be at the end of the line having missed eight of his last 14 field goal attempts.

Yes, the Bengals are improved. They are not improved enough, however, to be trusted to cover margins in division matchups like this one. Prior to beating the sinking Raiders last week, the Bengals had lost straight-up to the Jets and to the Browns by 25 points.

The Steelers have covered 72 percent of the time they've been 'dogs during the past 26 instances. 

Cincinnati defeated Pittsburgh back in Week 3. It was just the second time in the last 13 meetings the Bengals beat the Steelers. Cincinnati hasn't swept Pittsburgh since 2009.

Pittsburgh's defense looked bad against the Chargers last Sunday. Keep in mind, the Steelers were minus T.J. Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick and Joe Haden in that game. All three are expected back this week. Watt, in particular, makes a huge difference. Fitzpatrick could be their second-best defender next to Watt and Haden is their top cornerback. Watt missed the first game against the Bengals. 

Ben Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh's offensive line have been playing better. Roethlisberger has a 104.3 QB rating the past five games, while throwing nine TD passes and no interceptions during this span. 

The Patriots are playing their best ball winning five in a row. New England's average winning margin in these games is by 25 points. The Patriots' defense has been mind-boggling, surrendering only one touchdown during their opponent's past 31 possessions.

The Titans, on the other hand, are in trouble despite their impressive 8-3 record. They are averaging just 79 yards on the ground since Derrick Henry was injured three games ago. Their passing attack isn't strong, or deep enough, to compensate with Julio Jones out and A.J. Brown banged-up.

Tennessee's offensive is at less than full strength. Ryan Tannehill has been sacked 31 times. The Titans had a league-high 20 players on injured reserve last week and are missing several key defensive players, including linebacker Bud Dupree.

Mac Jones is doing the job for the Patriots with his poise and accuracy helped by an efficient ground attack, an offensive line that is playing well and excellent coaching.

The Patriots are on extra rest, too, having played last Thursday. Bill Belichick is a master game-planner. So expect the Patriots to take full advantage of their momentum, Tennessee's problems and the situation.

Stanford is in free fall losing and failing to cover its last six games. The Cardinal has lost their last three games by an average of 32 points to Utah, Oregon State and California. Notre Dame is better than those teams.

The Irish's ground game has picked up as their offensive has gotten better. Notre Dame not only will have huge edges at the skill positions, but also in the trenches. Stanford ranks 126th in rushing and 127th in stopping the run.

A key for the Irish is motivation. They are making the long trip West against what has become an extremely weak opponent. Notre Dame, though, still is in the playoff hunt. So style points matter. That means the Irish will be primed for a blowout.

Notre Dame has covered its past six road games and is 7-2 ATS the last nine times as a road favorite. Stanford is 1-7 ATS in its past eight home contests.

Syracuse is a very live underdog here especially given the circumstances.

The Orange need a win to become bowl eligible. This is a very big deal to them since they've only been to one bowl game since 2013.

Pittsburgh would like to win just from a rivalry standpoint, but the Panthers' incentive isn't nearly as great as Syracuse's. That's because the Panthers already have clinched the ACC Coastal Division and will be playing in the ACC title game next week regardless of this outcome. Pittsburgh probably doesn't want to show too much here and may even rest some starters during the game not wanting to risk injury.

The Orange is 3-3 at home with two of those defeats coming by just a field goal.

Syracuse has a top runner, Sean Tucker, who ranks No. 3 in the country in rushing. The Panthers' weakness is pass defense. So the Orange should be able to balance their attack.

The Orange have the defensive ability to bother Kenny Pickett with 36 sacks and 78 tackles for lost yards. The Orange also have the No. 3 pass defense in the ACC.

Injuries, inconsistency and lack of offense have doomed LSU this season. 

Until beating UL Monroe, a lower-tier Sun Belt Conference team, last week the Tigers were 1-5 in their last six games. LSU is averaging only 14.6 points in its last three SEC games. The Tigers' weak offense really misses star wide receiver Kayshon Boutte. 

Don't look for LSU to get well against stingy Texas A&M in departing coach Ed Orgeron's final home game. The Aggies are No. 2 in scoring defense holding foes to 14.9 points per game. Only 15 teams give up fewer yards per game than Texas A&M. 

The Aggies put up 41 points on Alabama. So their offense is capable. They'll do enough to cover this spread against a disinterested Tigers team playing the string out while waiting for a new coach. 

Neither Northwestern nor Illinois are going to bowl games. So this is their bowl game in this rivalry matchup.

Both teams are run-oriented with bad passing attacks. So expect a lot of running with the clock moving. The weather forecast is favorable to lots of run plays, too, with a chance of rain and wind in the 10-20 mph range.

The Wildcats rank second-to-last in the nation in scoring at 16.8 points. They haven't broken the 14-point barrier during their last five games, all against Big Ten teams. Andrew Marty is the Wildcats' fourth starting QB this season. He's thrown six interceptions during his four-game starting career while being sacked 10 times.

Illinois isn't any better ranking 118th in total offense and 122nd in scoring offense averaging 17.7 points.

The defenses are mediocre. Mediocrity trumps bad, though.

Two bad Conference USA teams with similar horrendous defense should translate to a higher-scoring game than this total.

How bad are these defenses?

Louisiana Tech is giving up 37.4 points in its last five games. The Bulldogs rank 103rd in defensive total yards, 116th in pass defense.

Rice allows 36.6 points a game. Only four Division I teams give up more points per game. The Owls also are 105th in defensive total yards, 117th in pass defense.

Air Force gives up 19.5 points per game. UNLV averages 20.4 points. So don't expect the Rebels to produce many points here. They have a good running back, Charles Williams, and that's about it to their offense. Their QB's are inexperienced and not good downfield passers. UNLV's offensive line has permitted 36 sacks. Only five teams give up fewer yards per game than the Falcons.

UNLV doesn't have a good defense either. But the Rebels are decent in one defensive area - stopping the run where they ranked 50th in the country. Air Force is an option team that runs the ball nearly 88 percent of the time. That's going to eat clock.

Both teams are among the bottom-six in terms of tempo, too. So the pace should be extremely slow.

Timing is very bad for the Saints here. This is a short week for the Saints. They've been without their best offensive players - Alvin Karmara, Jameis Winston, Michael Thomas and tackles Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk. These injuries have turned the Saints into a punchless, weapon-less offense operated by Trevor Siemian, one of the more ineffective backup quarterbacks in the league.

The result is New Orleans is on a three-game losing streak. That hasn't happened to the Saints since the first three games of the 2016 season.

New Orleans draws a much more well-rounded - and angry Bills team that just got destroyed, 41-15, at home by the Colts this past Sunday. The Bills have followed up their previous three losses with blowout victories winning those next games by an average of 26 points.

Buffalo ranks No. 2 in scoring at 29.5 points and is fifth in total yards. The Saints can't keep up with that. Their offense is just a shell of its former self.

New Orleans' defensive strength is its run defense, although you couldn't tell by watching the Saints get trampled by the Eagles this past Sunday. The Bills, though, are a passing team. The Saints are giving up 29.2 points per game during their last four games. That's right on the number of what the Bills average per game.

Now that Ben Roethlisberger has cleared COVID-19 protocols, I feel confident playing this game Over the total.

The Chargers have an above average offense and an elite QB in Justin Herbert. The Chargers catch a major break in that Pittsburgh is going to be without it's best pass rusher, best safety and top cornerback as T.J. Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick and Joe Haden have all been ruled out.

The Steelers aren't the same minus the dominant Watt, perhaps the best pass rusher in the NFL, and the dynamic ballhawk Fitzpatrick. The Steelers are thin at linebacker, too, after trading Melvin Ingram to the Chiefs earlier this month.

The Chargers are averaging 29.7 points in their past four home games. The weather will be perfect here.

I expect the Steelers to contribute their fair share of points. LA ranks last in run defense. Najee Harris is the sixth-leading rusher in the NFL. Pittsburgh's young offensive line has been showing improvement.

If the Chargers stack the line to key on Harris, Rothelisberger is savvy enough to hurt LA with play-action. It's a plus for Pittsburgh that big-play wideout Chase Claypool is expected to play.

It's not who you play in the NFL it's when you play them. That applies in this case. The Texans have lost eight in a row. Bill O'Brien really buried this franchise before departing the Houston scene. He should never be allowed to set foot on Texas soil again. The Texans are at expansion level.

But the Texans will prove tough here.

After winning six in a row - the last five against playoff teams - the Titans are in a monster letdown spot. They have the Patriots on deck.

Tennessee no longer has an explosive offense. Derrick Henry and Julio Jones are both out. It's not a coincidence the Titans have had their two worst rushing games of the season since losing Henry to a broken right foot.

Houston has the running advantage with David Johnson, Phillip Lindsay, Rex Burkhead and Tyrod Taylor, one of the better running QB's in the league, compared to the Titans' Adrian Peterson and D'Onta Foreman.

The Texans' offensive line is terrible. But injuries have greatly reduced the effectiveness of Tennessee's offensive line. Ryan Tannehill has been sacked 29 times. That's tied with rookie Justin Fields for being the most sacked QB in the NFL.

Taylor was extremely rusty against the Dolphins in his first start after being out for six weeks with a hamstring injury. Houston had its bye last week. Expect Taylor, an 11-year veteran with a history of not turning the ball over, to be much sharper. The Texans are plus eight in point differential during the 10 quarters Taylor has played.

This is a game Houston coach David Culley has been pointing to. He's a native of Tennessee and has an extensive college coaching record inside the state of Tennessee.

The Texans come in rested and motivated. The Titans lack the firepower to blow an opponent out now especially when in a flat spot.

The Texans have the worst offense in the NFL ranking last in points and yards per game. They are averaging a mind-boggling 4.2 points in their last four road games.

Tyrod Taylor upgrades Houston's offense. But only slightly. He's far better than overmatched rookie Davis Mills, but he's still Tyrod Taylor - a conservative journeyman better at running the ball than completing downfield passes.

The Titans have excellent season numbers. However, those numbers are out of context now with Derrick Henry and Julio Jones both out. The Titans have run the ball 55 times in their last two games minus Henry. They've gained 135 yards, an average of 67.5 yards per game. That's their lowest two-game rushing total of the season.

No Jones means the Texans can fully concentrate their pass defense on A.J. Brown, who is the Titans' only above average wideout.

Both teams have protection problems. The Titans have given up 29 sacks, the Texans 26 sacks. Tennessee's defense is much improved with defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons and linebacker Harold Landry playing at star levels.

Despite a 3-7 record, the Dolphins have life after their dominating victory against the Ravens last Thursday. The Dolphins' next four games are against the Jets, Panthers, Giants and Jets again. Those are all winnable games, which would put Miami at 7-7.

The Dolphins should get this one against the Jets, who have serious quarterback issues and a thin defense that has collapsed because of injuries.

Sometimes it's a mistake to overreact to one game. But beating the Ravens was a huge confidence-builder for the Dolphins. This was a dominant 22-10 victory, too. It was the second-fewest points Baltimore scored with Lamar Jackson as its starting QB. The Ravens could manage only 94 yards on the ground, which was their second-lowest rushing output in four years.

The Dolphins are a heavy blitzing team and the Jets have a well-below average offensive line to protect washed-up Joe Flacco, who was named the starting QB this week.

The Jets have lost nearly all of their above average defensive talent. The result is New York is giving up an average of 43.7 points in its last four games. The Jets rank last defensively in points and yards. They are second-to-last in pass defense.

Tua Tagovailoa is an improving QB, who can take advantage.

This is a cheap price to back the superior, motivated team against what's turned into another Jets disaster.

Dave Aranda has long been known as a defensive whiz at Utah State and Wisconsin before going to LSU and now Baylor. 

The Bears have shown steady defensive improvement under Aranda. They just held Oklahoma to a season-low 14 points. 

Kansas State is a far drop from Oklahoma offensively. The Wildcats rank 92nd in total yards. 

But like Baylor, Kansas State has come on defensively giving up 24, 12, 10 and 17 points in its last four games, all versus Big 12 schools. 

Both teams rank in the top-four defensively in the Big 12. Both teams are run-oriented and play at a slow pace. The Bears rank 108th in tempo, while Kansas State is 128th in pace. 

The Under has cashed the last four times the teams have played at Kansas State. 

Appalachian State is the class of the East Division of the Sun Belt Conference. Troy is a .500 team. But the Trojans have outscored their opponents by 26 points and this is their biggest game of the season. It is huge revenge for them after the Mountaineers defeated them by 37 points last season. That was the most lopsided loss Troy had last year. 

The Trojans have picked up their scoring averaging 27.6 points in their last five games.  The Trojans rank 17th in defensive total yards and they have 36 sacks. The most points they've surrendered all season is 35. 

Appalachian State is down a tick at quarterback from previous seasons. Mountaineers QB Chase Brice has been picked off eight times.  The Trojans have 13 takeaways, 11th-most in the country. 

Cheap price to lay with Minnesota against an Indiana team that has lost six in a row. The Hooisers hit rock bottom last week falling, 38-3, to Rutgers.

Injuries have taken away the Hooisers' explosiveness. They are down to third-string QB freshman Donaven McCulley. Discounting a 35-point performance against Maryland, Indiana is averaging a meager 6.4 points in its last five games. The Hooisers have been held to seven or fewer points in four of their past six games. 

Minnesota won't be taking the Hooisers lightly being a game behind Iowa and Wisconsin in the Big Ten West Division. The Gophers are 3-1 SU and ATS on the road with their lone away defeat coming to Iowa last week by five points. The Gophers outgained the Hawkeyes and had 11 more first downs.

Indiana ranks 106th in scoring defense giving up an average of 32 points. Given their lack of firepower and a defense that has worn down allowing 39.7 points in its last four games it's not difficult to see the Gophers covering a touchdown spread. 

These two teams are far apart from what this point spread may indicate.
 
 San Diego State has a top-10 defense, a strong ground attack and a once-in-a-generation punter. 

UNLV has a horrible defense and can't pass the ball. The Rebels are highly reliant on running back Charles Williams. The Aztecs have the fourth-best run defense in the country.

The Aztecs are in must-win mode, too, needing to win this game and their regular-season finale to capture the West Division of the Mountain West Conference. 

San Diego State buried UNLV, 34-6, last season. The Aztecs won't be taking the Rebels lightly, however. That's because UNLV has won two in a row after opening the season with eight straight losses. Note, though, the Rebels' victories are against New Mexico and Hawaii. The combined record of those two teams is 2-10. 

Before beating New Mexico and Hawaii, UNLV lost, 51-20, to Nevada. San Diego State defeated Nevada, 23-21, last week. 

The Rebels have permitted at least 35 points in five of their games. They rank 105th in scoring defense. San Diego State has one of the best running backs in the conference, Greg Bell, and upgraded at quarterback with the switch to Lucas Johnson four games ago. Punter Matt Araiza is a huge weapon for the Aztecs. He's on pace to set the single-season college mark averaging 52.2 yards per punt. 

UNLV ranks 119th in total yards and 113th in scoring. The Rebels may not reach 10 points considering they aren't likely to ever have good field position. The Aztecs have held six of their 10 foes to 14 or fewer points. 

The Falcons have much to prove after scoring just three points in a 40-point loss to the Cowboys last Sunday. Matt Ryan had a passer rating of 21.4 in that game, lowest of his career.

It's probably a given the Falcons are going to come out motivated for this Thursday night home game. It's far from a given, though, that they score far more points than last week.

New England has an elite defense. Dallas doesn't. The Patriots are giving up the second-fewest points per game in the NFL at 17.7. That number shrinks to 12.5 if you go by the last four games.

Atlanta's problems aren't fully on Ryan. Minus traded Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, who will be missing his fourth straight game to deal with mental health issues, the Falcons are down to just two explosive players, Cordarrelle Patterson and tight end Kyle Pitts. Patterson is dealing with an ankle injury. So he may be out, too.

Given Mike Davis' ineffectiveness this season, the Falcons' primary running back could be journeyman Wayne Gallman. That leaves Pitts as a lone force and Bill Belichick is a master at taking away his opponent's most potent weapon. The Falcons won't even have the luxury of playing a second good pass-catching tight end because Hayden Hurst is out with an ankle injury.

This isn't the decent Falcons' attack spearheaded by Ryan we're used to seeing. Way too many missing parts. Ryan is going to have to be conservative because of that. The Patriots have 14 interceptions. That's tied for the second-most in the league.

The Patriots are far from explosive themselves. Take away their two victories against the Jets and last week's blowout of the Browns and the Patriots are averaging 21.5 points in their seven other games.

New England is a run-oriented, ground-and-pound team. Rookie QB Mac Jones has proven accurate, but he's not a big downfield thrower and his wide receiving corps is below average.

It's tough for a road team to win when playing on a short week especially facing a non-conference opponent. The last time these teams met was 2017. The short week limits the Patriots' game-planning and chance to be creative on offense. They'll do what they do best - run the ball, play for field position and rely on their defense. That's a good formula for the Under.

Considering the weather forecast for Muncie, Ind., the total on this game is too high. 

Granted San Diego State is the best defense Nevada has seen all season.

But the Wolf Pack are going to get their share of points with QB Carson Strong and his strong group of receiving targets. Nevada is averaging 40 points in its last six games. The Wolf Pack lead the Mountain West Conference in scoring at 36.4 points. Strong is fourth in the nation in passing yards with 3,197 yards. He's completed 70.5 percent of his passes.

San Diego State is going to hold up its end of the bargain, too, in getting this total Over.

The Aztecs are a top-40 rushing team. Lucas Johnson is an upgrade for them at QB replacing Jordon Brookshire. The Wolf Pack rank 102nd in pass defense. So they can't stack the line to key on the run without being vulnerable in their already weak secondary.

Just because Wake Forest and North Carolina scored a combined 113 points in the Tar Heels' 58-55 win last week, doesn't mean the Demon Deacons are going to produce a ton of points this week.

That was a deflating loss for them halting their unbeaten season and now they draw a tough defensive foe in North Carolina State.

North Carolina managed just 23 points against Pittsburgh Thursday night. I expect Wake Forest's scoring will be down, too, from last week. North Carolina State ranks seventh in scoring defense giving up only 16 points a game. Only 17 teams give up fewer yards per game than the Wolfpack.

North Carolina State hasn't topped 28 points in its last two games against Louisville and Florida State. Those are both below defenses.

South Alabama is without its starting QB Jake Bentley, who is out with a knee injury. That puts more pressure on the Jaguars' ground attack, which hasn't been good. The Jaguars rank 96th in rushing.

I don't expect South Alabama to score many points here. But the Jaguars do have a good defense. Only 16 teams give up fewer yards per game than South Alabama. The Jaguars are 21st in run defense. Appalachian State runs nearly 60 percent of the time.

The Mountaineers will be content to run clock not taking chances against this weak foe, especially considering the weather forecast. Heavy winds in the 16-28 mph range are being forecast. This is a huge plus for the Under.

The point spread may not reflect it, but Penn State is the better team. The Nittany Lions are home, too, and don't have the injuries Michigan does. 

Penn State's losses occurred to Illinois in overtime, to Iowa by three on the road when they were leading by two touchdowns before QB Sean Clifford was injured and a tough nine-point road loss to Ohio State. 

The Nittany Lions have played a far more difficult schedule than the Wolverines. Penn State has covered 10 of its last 13 games, while Michigan has failed to cover the past six times when going against above .500 opponents.  

Penn State got back on track smashing Maryland, 31-14, on the road last week. Clifford and his star wide receiver Jahan Dotson had big games. Michigan can't match that passing firepower. 

The Wolverines are dealing with a number of skill position injuries with running back Blake Corum, wide receivers A.J. Henning and Andrel Anthony all hurt along with tight end Erick All. Corum is their second leading rusher, while All is their second leading receiver. 

Oklahoma has defeated Baylor seven straight times. The unbeaten Sooners also have won 23 consecutive November games. I don't see the Bears putting a halt to that streak.

Baylor lost its momentum with a 30-28 loss to TCU last week. The Bears surrendered 570 of total offense to a Horned Frogs squad going with a backup QB and minus their best running back. 

It's scary how many points and yards the Sooners can put up on the Bears especially being idle last week giving offensive guru Lincoln Riley ample time to prepare and game plan. 

The Sooners' offense has taken off since Caleb Williams replaced disappointing Spencer Rattler at QB. The Sooners are averaging 46.2 points in their last five games. 

Rallying from an 18-point second-half deficit, North Carolina came back to defeat ninth-ranked Wake Forest, 58-55, this past Saturday. It was a great home win for the Tar Heels.

However, now the Tar Heels have to travel on a short week to face another ranked team, Pittsburgh. 

The Panthers match up better against the Tar Heels than the Demon Deacons did. Plus the Panthers are home and in a great situational spot catching the Tar Heels on short rest following a great victory.

North Carolina has lost and failed to cover the three times it has played away from home this season, losing those games by an average of 13.3 points.

Kenny Pickett could be the most improved quarterback in college football. Sparked by Pickett, a trio of good running backs and excellent wideouts, the Panthers are averaging a nation-best 45 points a game. They are No. 2 in the country in yards averaging 543.3. 

Sam Howell is one of the top QB's in the country. The Tar Heels can't match Pitt's numbers, though, especially when on the road and going against a good defense. North Carolina averages 22 points in its non-home games. 

North Carolina gives up 33.4 points per game. Pittsburgh holds foes to 22.7 points per game and ranks 15th in run defense. The Panthers give up just 3.2 yards per carry, bad news for Tar Heels' running back Ty Chandler.

Howell is less effective if he's one-dimensional without Chandler producing on the ground. Pittsburgh has the second most sacks in the ACC. Expect Pickett to get the better of Howell backed by the superior defense and for Pittsburgh to win this one by double-digits. 

The Bears hosted the 49ers last week. The total was less than 41. There were 55 points scored. 

The Rams are a top-five offense averaging more than 30 points and 400 total yards. Matthew Stafford is putting up MVP numbers and Cooper Kupp has been the best wide receiver in the NFL. Tennessee has a below average defense. 

Tyrod Taylor is back under center. That makes a huge difference for Houston. Taylor is a professional. Rookie Davis Mills was a rank amateur in way above his head as a starting NFL quarterback.

Taylor played six quarters before he was injured. The Texans outscored their two opponents, 51-35, during that span. 

No Taylor isn't some savior. He's a veteran journeyman. The Texans are one of the worst teams in the NFL. But their 1-7 record is the same as Miami's. 

The Dolphins give up even more yards than the Texans. Miami ranks 31st in defensive total yards and 29th in scoring defense permitting 29.1 points. 
The Dolphins on offense are just as bad ranking in the bottom-four in yards gained, points, rushing yards and turnovers. 

Houston has a bye next week. So the Texans should be putting forth a strong effort. 

Miami isn't nearly the playoff team it was last season. So you have to wonder about the Dolphins' morale. 

Dallas' defense is much improved. But it's far from an elite unit. Jerry Jeudy is back from an ankle injury. He's Denver's most consistent wide receiving threat. His presence opens the field for their other receivers, including the highly-talented Courtland Sutton.

Teddy Bridgewater has completed better than 70 percent of his throws. Expect Bridgewater to be passing far more than usual as he'll need to keep up with Dak Prescott and an explosive Cowboys offense.

The Broncos' defense looked good at the start of the season. However, they were playing weak offenses and that was before multiple injuries struck. Denver is without its two best inside linebackers, Josey Jewell and A.J. Johnson. That opens up the running game for Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard.

Denver's pass rush is without Bradley Chubb and now the traded Von Miller. So Prescott should have time to pick his spots. The Cowboys' deep wide receiving corps is made even deeper with the expected return of Michael Gallup, who is talented enough to be a starter on some teams. The Broncos suffered another key defensive injury, losing Bryce Callahan. He was one of the best slot coverage defensive backs.

There's a lot wrong with USC these days. The Trojans have an interim head coach. A quarterback controversy. And they just lost their best player, Drake London. He was the top wide receiver in the country and the key to USC's passing attack.

The Trojans were nip and tuck with winless Arizona last week before winning, 41-34. The Wildcats have one of the worst offenses in the country. Yet they scored 34 points on USC's defense. What does that tell you about USC?

Arizona State is off a terrible performance, too, losing, 34-21, as a 16 1/2-point favorite to Washington State. Committing five turnovers was a killer for the Sun Devils. Jayden Daniels is a much better QB than he showed in that game.

I'm looking for the Sun Devils to bounce back at home against the dysfunctional Trojans. ASU should be able to run more effectively against the Trojans than against the Cougars.

USC QB Kedon Slovis is having a disappointing season. He's being pushed by freshman Jaxson Dart, who Arizona State knows well having recruited him. Both QB's are going to dearly miss the fantastic London. ASU ranks No. 2 in the Pac-12 in sacks with 22. So Slovis and Dart aren't going to have a clean pocket, especially with USC starting freshmen at the offensive tackle spots.

Iowa was never even close to being the second-best team in the country even opening 6-0. But now that the Hawkeyes are off losses to Wisconsin and Purdue by a combined margin of 51-14, they are being underrated with this short point spread stepping this far down in class.

The Hawkeyes committed a combined seven turnovers against the Badgers and Boilermakers. They had gone into those games plus 15 in turnover margin.

Look for the well-coached Hawkeyes to get back on track against Northwestern, a team they match up much better against. Iowa has a very strong defense. Northwestern has a very weak offense. The Wildcats average fewer than 20 points a game. They rank second-to-last in the Big Ten in points and 11th in scrimmage yards. The Wildcats were just blown out by Minnesota, 41-14.

Iowa has a good running back in Tyler Goodson. He should be in line for a strong game as Northwestern ranks 126th in the nation in run defense. If the Hawkeyes establish a ground attack, which they didn't do against Wisconsin and Purdue, this would make things much easier for pocket passer Spencer Petras.

The Hawkeyes have been at their best beating and covering against bad teams going 21-6 ATS as a road favorite.

Don't expect many points in this in-state rivalry matchup. 

Not only are the offenses well below average, but so is the tempo. Both Kansas and Kansas State rank among the bottom 10 in pace. 

Kansas State ranks 93rd in total yards and 77th in scoring at 27.5 points. This is in the high-scoring Big 12 Conference, too. The Wildcats are much better defensively ranking in the top 50 in fewest yards and points allowed. They also have the 26th best rush defense, bad news for the Jayhawks. 

Kansas averages a puny 15.8 points a game. The Jayhawks rank 120th in total yards. They are averaging 11.7 points in their last four games - all versus Big 12 foes. 

The Jayhawks are terrible on defense, too. But surprisingly they don't give up that many explosive ways. Foes have to launch long drives to put up points on Kansas. This eats up clock. The Jayhaws should be their most fired-up against this opponent. 

The Pro Football Hall of Fame collected Mike White's jersey from last Sunday's stunning Jets' 34-31 win against the Bengals. Heady stuff. Kudos to the Jets, who caught the Bengals traveling in a division sandwich spot after beating the Ravens and hosting the Browns this week.

The Jets are in the bad spot this week in their own letdown situation and playing a Thursday road game against a frustrated and motivated opponent that is at least two levels better than them.

So I'm not afraid to lay this number with Indy. It's the Colts' first prime time home game in four years.

The Colts are much the superior team and are in near must-win mode after blowing a two-touchdown lead last week in their AFC South Division showdown loss to the Titans.

White isn't throwing for more than 400 yards and three TD's like he did against Cincinnati. White doesn't possess that kind of skill level. Defenses have film on him now, too, and Indy is well-coached defensively.

The stunning victory against the Bengals obscures just how wretched the Jets really are. New York averages 13 fewer points per game than its opponents and 84 fewer yards. The Jets have the worst ground attack in the league and the highest percentage of passes intercepted.

Carson Wentz has thrown multiple TD's in six straight games. Jonathan Taylor has reinforced his reputation as a stud running back. The Colts' offensive line has gotten healthy.

Expect a Colts blowout.

I don't see where Western Michigan is double-digits better than Central Michigan even at home. I find this line out of whack.

Each team averages 29 points a game. Central Michigan gives up one more point per game than Western Michigan.

The Chippewas upset Toledo in overtime two games ago. Western Michigan just played Toledo last week and lost, 34-15.

Both teams have balanced attacks. I do give the Broncos an edge at the skill position spots with QB Kaleb Eleby, wide receiver Skyy Moore and running back La'darius Jefferson. Eleby is my starting QB on my Mid-American Conference fantasy team. (Yes I actually am in a MAC fantasy league, maybe the only one in the country.)

But the Broncos' edge in skill position talent is offset by turnovers. Western Michigan has turned the ball over twice as much as Central Michigan this season. The Broncos only have two takeaways, too, during their last four games.

Central Michigan has been outstanding in a 'dog role under Jim McElwain going 9-3 ATS during the last two plus seasons. The Broncos are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven MAC games.

This is a huge in-state rivalry game. The road team has dominated the point spread in this series covering eight of the past nine times.

A lot has to go right defensively and on special teams for a total of less than 40 to go Under in today's NFL with so many rules skewed to offense. 

A game involving winless Arizona shouldn't have a total this high. The Wildcats rank 127th in scoring at a meager 14.3 points a game. The Under has cashed in Arizona's last three games, winning by an average of more than 10 points under the total.

The Wildcats, though, haven't quit on defense. They held Washington to seven points in the fourth quarter last week before losing, 21-16.

Mistake-prone USC is in disarray. The Trojans have an interim coach and morale issues. They are averaging 21 points their last two games, losses to Notre Dame and Utah.

USC QB Kedon Slovis entered this season highly-rated. But Slovis has put up mediocre numbers with a 9-to-6 TD-to-interception ratio.

The spot is ripe for SMU. The Mustangs haven't played in 10 days. They are rested and should be well prepared.

Houston lost by 17 points to Texas Tech opening week and then reeled off six straight victories. None of the teams the Cougars beat, though, is as good as SMU.

I don't see the Cougars being strong enough to step up here. They needed overtime to beat East Carolina, 31-24, last Saturday. That game lasted much longer than expected due to several weather delays.

Cougars QB Clayton Tune is dealing with a lingering hamstring injury. SMU QB Tanner Mordecai is having a huge season with 29 TD passes and a 71.1 percent completion percentage.

Discount a 37-0 victory against Grambling, an FCS opponent, and Southern Mississippi hasn't scored more than 19 points all season. The Golden Eagles are averaging a puny 14.1 points. 

Simply put there's a class difference here not reflective of the betting line. Louisiana Tech is experiencing a down and disappointing season. But the Bulldogs still harbor bowl hopes. They are much superior to Old Dominion, which is a bottom-10 caliber team.

Louisiana Tech is in circle-the-wagons mode having lost three in a row. A pair of those losses were to North Carolina State and to Texas San Antonio, which is the top 25.

Old Dominion has dropped five consecutive games. The Monarchs' lone victory was against Hampton, a non Division-I opponent. They are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 conference games and 2-7 ATS during their past nine home contests.

The strength of the Bulldogs is their passing attack, which ranks 25th. QB Austin Kendall has three good wide receivers in Smoke Harris, Bub Means and Tre Harris.

Old Dominion ranks 126th in pass defense. The Monarchs are not going to be able to stop Louisiana Tech's passing attack. Their hope is Louisiana Tech turns the ball over, which it has. However, the Monarchs only have three takeaways. Without causing turnovers, Old Dominion won't be able to hang close.

Rutgers has become a respectable Big Ten team under Greg Schiano. The Scarlet Knights can't compete with the conference elites, but they can beat the lower tier teams such as Illinois especially in this instance given the situation and the Illini's QB situation.

Illinois is off a huge nine overtime victory against Penn State. The Illini were 24-point road 'dogs in that game. Unfortunately for the Illini they lost their quarterback, Artur Sitkowski, in that game to a broken arm.

Brandon Peters replaces Sitkowski. Peters has starting experience, but he's a downgrade.

Rutgers has a top-50 scoring defense despite having played Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State.

There are two winless FBS football teams - Arizona and UNLV. The Rebels have lost 13 straight games. They aren't going to end that losing skid at Nevada-Reno. 
That's not the question, though. The question is can Nevada cover a three-touchdown spread? 

The answer is yes because of the makeup of these two teams and a huge edge in talent for the Wolf Pack. 

UNLV's strength is running the ball. Charles Williams is one of the best running backs in the Mountain West Conference. This is no secret to the Wolf Pack. They are going to stack the line and bring their safeties up to key on Williams and UNLV's ground attack. The Rebels have a pair of inexperienced freshmen quarterbacks. Neither of whom has demonstrated any consistency passing downfield. 

Nevada's passing attack is too strong for the Rebels to slow down. Wolf Pack QB Carson Strong is a pro prospect. The Wolf Pack rank third in the nation in passing yards. Strong has multiple excellent receiving targets. UNLV ranks 123rd out of 130 FBS teams in pass defense efficiency. The Rebels give up a staggering 71.2 percent completion percentage and 8.7 yards per attempt.

Strong has completed 70.6 percent of his throws with a 20-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Rebels only have seven sacks and five takeaways. They can't count on a pass rush, nor takeaways to keep them in the game. 

Because of their poor passing attack, the Rebels are in big trouble when they fall behind. UNLV averages fewer than 20 points a game and ranks 123rd in total yards. UNLV's defense gives up 33.9 points a game, which ranks 117th. 

Strong should have no trouble lighting up the Rebels' porous defense. UNLV doesn't have the passing attack to stay within three touchowns of Reno.
Nevada has a strong home field.

The Wolf Pack are 19-6-1 in their last 26 home games.  

The Cardinals rank fourth in the NFL in points scored per game at 32.1. That's legitimate with Kyler Murray having an MVP-type season. 

Arizona ranks first in the NFL in fewest points allowed per game at 16.3. That's not legitimate. Yes, the Cardinals' defense is much improved. But it's not the dominating unit that the statistics show.

Arizona has permitted just 29 points in its last three games. Those matchups, though, were against the 49ers, Browns and Texans. The Cardinals faced two rookie quarterbacks during this span - Trey Lance in his starting debut and overmatched Davis Mills - along with a banged-up Baker Mayfield, who probably shouldn't have played against the Cardinals in what was one of his worst performances ever. Mayfield couldn't hit open receivers all game against Arizona. 

The Packers won't have Davonte Adams and Allen Lazard. If Marquez Valdes-Scantling has to miss a fifth straight game due to a hamstring injury, Green Bay will be without its three top wideouts. 

Normally this would create a huge problem. That problem isn't the mess the marketplace believes it is in driving the line up to a touchdown. Aaron Rodgers still has weapons. Green Bay has outstanding wide receiver depth. Rodgers has been great since Week 2 with 17 all purpose touchdowns and just one interception during his last six games. 

By the way, the Packers are 6-0 since 2019 in games Adams has missed. 

The Cardinals will get Chandler Jones back, but J.J. Watt won't play. I have complete confidence that Rodgers will put up his share of points helping this total go Over.

Murray certainly is in line for another big game. Arizona has scored 30 or more points in every game except one. The Packers won't have their top cornerback, Jaire Alexander, nor their best pass rusher, Za'Darius Smith. They may not have their other starting cornerback, Kevin King, nor their third-best pass rusher, Preston Smith. Both missed last Sunday's game and are questionable here not helped by the short week. 

The Packers holding Washington to 10 points last Sunday is highly misleading. Washton marched up and down the field on Green Bay picking up 430 yards while averaging 6.1 yards per play. Taylor Heinicke just made too many goal line mistakes to take advantage. The Packers have allowed the second-most quarterback rushing yards. That bodes well for double-threat Murray. 

This has all the markings of a pick'em type game between two solid no-frill teams. 

I have been watching the NFL for nearly 60 years. Never have I seen a worse wide receiver group than what the Lions have with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Kalif Raymond, KhaDarel Hodge, Tom Kennedy and Geronimo Allison. 

There's some below-the-radar stuff that lends this matchup to a sneaky Over play. 

These two MAC teams last played two seasons ago. There were 83 points scored.  There could be that many points produced this time around, too. Kent State has a very good QB in Dustin Crum. The Golden Flashes' offensive statistics are skewed by the tough non-conference defenses they faced earlier in the season - Texas A&M, Maryland and Iowa. But since MAC play began, the Golden Flashes are averaging 35.3 points in their three conference games.  A big thing about Kent State is it plays at the second fastest tempo in the country. Ohio gives up 30.7 points. The Bobcats rank 99th in yards allowed.  The 1-6 Bobcats are bad. But they do one thing right - run the ball. Their QB, Armani Rogers, is a running quarterback. Only 31 teams average more yards on the ground than Ohio. Kent State ranks 121st in rush defense. So the Bobcats should be able to contribute their share of points. 
 

Eastern Michigan is 4-3 and needs this game if it wants to make a bowl game, which is a big deal for the Eagles. The Eagles are averaging a respectable 29.6 points a game.

Don't overthink this one. The Titans are worse than their 3-2 record. If the Bills don't pass the eye test of being the best team in the NFL right now following their road victory against the Chiefs they certainly pass the statistical test. Buffalo entered this week leading the NFL in scoring at 34.4 points per game while giving up the fewest points at 12.8.