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Football Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
10-29-20	Falcons v. Panthers OVER 49	Top	25-17	Loss	-108	41 h 11 m	Show
The key here is each team reaching 24 points. I definitely see that happening. Only five teams produce more yards per game than Atlanta. The Falcons' offense shifts into another gear when Julio Jones is back in the lineup, which is the case now. Jones has played in Atlanta's last two games after recovering from a hamstring injury. He's caught a combined 16 passes for 234 yards and scored twice in those two games. Matt Ryan has completed 74.4 percent of his throws for 709 yards with a 5-to-0 touchdown-to-interception in those games. The Falcons are averaging 31 points during the past two weeks. Ryan is your classic pocket passer. He's deadly effective when he has a clean pocket. The Panthers are tied for the fewest sacks with six. Carolina has an inexperienced secondary and a below average run defense. Todd Gurley shouldn't lack motivation to exploit this after his touchdown-scoring blunder this past Sunday helped cost the Falcons a victory against the Lions. Teddy Bridgewater also should have a clean pocket. Bridgewater is proving that he's a quality NFL starting QB with the second-highest passing percentage in the league while ranking fifth in passing yards. The Falcons rank second-to-last in the NFL in defensive total yards and passing yards. They are giving up 29.6 points a game and a league-worst 19 TD passes. Christian McCaffrey is eligible to return here having been out since Week 3 with a high ankle sprain. It's my guess the Panthers hold him out until their next game. It's just a huge bonus if McCaffrey plays because I still like this total to go Over even if he doesn't. Mike Davis has done well filling in for McCaffrey.
10-29-20	South Alabama v. Georgia Southern UNDER 51.5		17-24	Win	100	39 h 3 m	Show
If you think about Sun Belt Conference football - which is totally not a given - you envision up-tempo, high-scoring games. That's not going to be the case in this Thursday matchup between South Alabama and Georgia Southern. The run-option Eagles of Georgia Southern are one of the slowest-paced teams in the country. Eagles QB Shai Werts is a much better runner than thrower. Georgia Southern averages just 114 passing yards a game. South Alabama doesn't play fast either. Both team's defenses are respectable. The Jaguars give up 24.8 points per contest, while Georgia Southern allows 22.8. The Jaguars held their last two opponents, Texas State and UL-Monroe, to a combined average of 17 points. If you discount a 41-0 win against UMass, the worst team in the FBS, Georgia Southern is averaging 23.7 points in its four other games. The Eagles have a solid secondary that should be able to contain South Alabama's improved passing attack.
10-26-20	Bears v. Rams UNDER 45	Top	10-24	Win	100	28 h 34 m	Show
The NFL likes to have high-scoring games especially during its nationally televised games. The league probably is going to be disappointed when this one finishes because it has the makings of a low-scoring contest. The Bears entered this Week 7 ranked in the bottom-six in scoring, rushing and yards per play. So why are they 5-1? Their defense has given up a league-low 4 TD passes. Jared Goff has had more trouble versus the Bears than any opponent. Goff has a 0-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a passer rating of 33.9 in two career matchups versus Chicago. Goff actually has played better on the road this season where nine of his 10 TD passes have occurred. The Rams have held four of their six opponents below 20 points. Aaron Donald entered this week leading the NFL in sacks with 7 1/2. He's going to be a load for a mediocre Bears offensive line. Nick Foles has regressed to being more game manager than gunslinger. So this game figures to be conservative. The teams have met the past two seasons and there was not more than 24 points scored in either one.
10-25-20	49ers v. Patriots UNDER 45.5		33-6	Win	100	124 h 46 m	Show
Both of these teams lean heavily toward the run. The Patriots have become the Cam Newton show. Newton is more feared as a runner than passer. Each team is banged up in the offensive line, too. Patriots coach Bill Belichick is well acquainted with Jimmy Garoppolo, who served as Tom Brady's backup before going to the 49ers. The 49ers will be without their best running back, injured Raheem Mostert. Despite injuries, the 49ers rank fifth in fewest yards allowed per game, while the Patriots yield the ninth fewest yards.
10-25-20	Chiefs v. Broncos UNDER 47.5		43-16	Loss	-126	99 h 18 m	Show
Now that we're heading into late October weather can be a factor. That's likely to be the case in this matchup where snow and wind are in the projected Denver forecast. Kansas City has become more run-oriented. That's likely to stay the same with the addition of Le'Veon Bell. The Chiefs have an underrated defense. The Broncos are missing their best wide receiver, Courtland Sutton, and Drew Lock is trying to get the rust off. Denver scored a combined nine points in its two games against Kansas City last season. Denver's strength is its well-coached defense under Vic Fangio. Bradley Chubb has emerged as a top pass rushing force.
10-25-20	49ers v. Patriots -125		33-6	Loss	-125	56 h 44 m	Show
You have to go all the way back to 2002 to find the last time the Patriots under Bill Belichick lost three games in a row. The spot, matchup and injury situation strongly favor the Patriots, who have covered 67 percent of the time during the past 74 instances following a loss. The Patriots were in a tough spot last week unable to practice on the field because their facilities were shut down due to COVID. It's business as usual this week for the Patriots, who have been able to practice and get back to their normal routine. It's the 49ers who have the bad timing. They just defeated the Rams at home in a pivotal division game this past Sunday. San Francisco has another huge division game next week against the Seahawks. Cam Newton should finally be back to 100 percent. The Patriots are expected to get reinforcements back on both their offensive and defensive lines, including star center David Andrews. The 49ers aren't as lucky. They are down their best running back and have multiple defensive injuries to a number of important players, including Nick Bosa, Richard Sherman, Dee Ford, Kwon Alexander and Solomon Thomas. Jimmy Garoppolo hasn't played well this season. Garoppolo backed up Tom Brady before going to the 49ers. Belichick certainly knows Garoppolo's tendencies. Both teams are ground-oriented and conservative. Newton is superior to Garoppolo. The Patriots also have the stronger secondary and Belichick is the best coach in football.
10-25-20	Packers -3 v. Texans		35-20	Win	100	120 h 57 m	Show
A terrible defense and bad coaching have done in the Texans. Their season, for all practical purposes, was to put to rest when they blew a late lead against the Titans this past Sunday. That loss put the Texans at 1-5 and crushed what little morale they had picked up when Bill O'Brien was fired. Opposing QB's are completing 70 percent of their throws versus the Texans for 13 touchdowns and just one interception. Houston also ranks last in run defense. Look for the Packers to come back strong after being embarrassed by the Buccaneers this past Sunday. Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones and Davonte Adams should produce huge numbers. Despite their loss to Tampa Bay, the Packers have been strong on the road under Matt LaFleur going 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS. Green Bay also has not lost two consecutive games under LaFleur. The Texans have failed to cover the past six times they've been underdogs.
10-25-20	Cowboys -108 v. Washington Football Team		3-25	Loss	-108	120 h 44 m	Show
The Cowboys have serious problems. That was evident watching them this past Monday night. But don't overreact to that game. Washington is worse than Dallas. Washington has trailed by double-digits with the ball in every one of its games. Only one team can match that embarrassing mark - and it's not the Cowboys but the Jets. Andy Dalton will have had two weeks of working with the Cowboys' first-string offense. He's a decent QB when he's surrounded with skill position weapons, which he has with the Cowboys. Washington can't come close to matching the Cowboys' offensive talent. So the Cowboys defense doesn't face a stiff challenge here like they did in five of their previous six games. The Cowboys have covered 79 percent of their last 19 division games.
10-25-20	Panthers +7.5 v. Saints		24-27	Win	100	8 h 9 m	Show
The Saints are an overrated bunch just 2-2 in their last four games and lucky not to be 1-3 after pulling off an improbable overtime home win against the Chargers in their last game. New Orleans hasn't fared well following its bye the past couple of seasons and will be without its two top wideouts, including superstar Michael Thomas. The Panthers have shown defensive improvement and a respectable balanced offense despite not having Christian McCaffrey. Teddy Bridgewater is a mind-boggling 14-2 ATS as a road underdog in his NFL starting career.
10-24-20	Wyoming v. Nevada OVER 49.5		34-37	Win	100	111 h 24 m	Show
The offenses are in place to produce a strong scoring game that exceeds this total. Both teams have excellent running backs, promising quarterbacks and returning offensive linemen. Nevada has all five of its starting offensive linemen back along with its two leading wide receivers and three-year starting running back, Toa Taua. Wolf Pack sophomore QB Carson Strong came on last year to throw for 1,359 yards and eight TD's during the second half of the season. He concluded 2019 by setting a school bowl record by throwing for 402 yards and completing 31 passes against Ohio in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. Taua and Devonte Lee combined for 13 rushing TD's last season. Wyoming returns nearly all of its first and second-string offensive linemen. The Cowboys have a very good running back in All-Mountain West Conference Xazavian Valladay. He ran for 1,265 yard last season. Sophomore QB Sean Chambers was Wyoming's No. 2 rusher last year. He accounted for 10 TD's. Chambers accomplished this even though he was knocked out for the year with a knee injury in Game 8. He's healthy now and should be able to take advantage of the Wolf Pack breaking in a new defensive scheme with a new defensive coordinator, Brian Ward. The Wolf Pack gave up the third-most points in the conference last season. It's going to take time for the Wolf Pack to learn this new defense, which features multiple looks. Complicating things even more for Nevada's defensive players is the lack of off-season and practice time.
10-24-20	Penn State v. Indiana +6.5		35-36	Win	100	24 h 15 m	Show
Don't be shocked if Indiana pulls off the outright upset with a straight-up victory. Penn State lost many key players and Indiana returns a lot. The Nittany Lions are down their best player on offense and top defensive player. Running back Journey Brown is likely out for the season with a medical condition, while star linebacker MIcah Parson opted out of the season. The Hoosiers turned the corner last year going 8-5, their best record in 27 years. Indiana QB Michael Penix Jr. is as talented as Penn State QB Sean Clifford. The Hoosiers have outstanding skill position talent with running back Steve Scott, wideout Whop Philyor and tight end Peyton Hendershot. Indiana also returns eight defensive starts, including leading tackler LB Micah McFadden. Penn State defeated Indiana, 34-27, at home last year. Penix missed that game with an injury.
10-24-20	Baylor v. Texas UNDER 62	Top	16-27	Win	100	108 h 7 m	Show
The total is set too high here. Baylor has a strong defense and is coached by defensive guru Dave Aranda. The Bears have played only two games, one of which went into overtime. Texas' statistics are skewed, too, because of a four-overtime game versus Oklahoma that finished with the Sooners winning, 53-45. Both teams should have plenty of energy. The Bears have been idle for two weeks. Texas didn't play last week. The Longhorns used their bye to emphasize running the ball better and stopping the run. Quarterback Sam Ehlinger is the Longhorns' leading rusher.
10-23-20	UL-Lafayette v. UAB +3	Top	24-20	Loss	-105	18 h 51 m	Show
Louisiana Lafayette is 0-5 ATS the past five times it has been favored. I don't see that changing in this matchup. Alabama-Birmingham has the better rushing attack with Spencer Brown, the superior defense and is home. UAB has covered 72 percent of its past 26 home games. The Ragin' Cajuns have an up-tempo attack. They play fast and can run the ball well, too. But I like the Blazers ability to maintain ball-control and win the time of possession battle pounding away with Brown. The Blazers have rushed for more than 200 yards in three of their five games, while going 4-1. Brown has run for 472 yards with six TD's. UAB's offensive line, which has four returning starters, has permitted only three sacks. Lafayette surrendered 212 rushing yards in a 30-27 upset loss to Coastal Carolina in its last game.
10-22-20	Giants v. Eagles UNDER 45	Top	21-22	Win	100	18 h 30 m	Show
This is the first time I have ever led an analysis talking about punters. But they matter here because I envision a lot of punting in this Thursday matchup. Not good for viewership, but plenty good for going Under the total. Opponents have returned just nine of Giants' punter Riley Dixon's 18 punts. Dixon has placed half of his punts inside the 20. Eagles punter Cam Johnston ranks second in the NFL in gross average and fourth in net yardage. Don't look for these teams to have good field position throughout the game. The Eagles are off their most physical matchup of the season. They exerted a lot of energy in a 30-28 loss to the Ravens last week after trailing by 16 points midway through the fourth quarter. Carson Wentz was sacked or knocked down 18 times. Now the Eagles have to play again on just three day's rest. Philadelphia will be without its star running back Miles Sanders, who had all but 17 of the Eagles' rushing attempts during their last five games. Tight end Zach Ertz is out, too. Wentz has been sacked a league-high 25 times playing behind a patch-work offensive line. He has the worst completion percentage of any starting QB in the league. He's thrown nine interceptions, two more than he had all of last season. Daniel Jones has thrown one TD pass since Week 1. His nickname has gone from "Danny Dimes" to "Danny Turnovers" because he has turned the ball over 32 times in 18 career starts. The Giants rank last in yards per game and are second-to-last in scoring averaging 16.8. Losing Saquan Barkley for the season was a killer for the Giants offense. New offensive coordinator Jason Garrett hasn't helped, which is no big surprise. The Eagles have a bigger game on deck hosting Dallas next week. They need to physically survive this game keeping Wentz in one piece. A conservative game plan should be in place sprinkled with a little Jalen Hurts. The Giants have held their last four foes to 3.3 yards per carry. New York's defense is better than its offense. The Giants have good safeties and cornerback James Bradberry is above average. The Giants also have the 11th-most sacks. The Giants don't figure to come into Philadelphia, a place where they have lost the last six times, and try to play wide-open. They don't have the personnel for that, nor the coaching acumen. The Giants need to keep things simple for second-year QB Jones and limit his turnovers. Jones has become more dangerous as a runner than thrower ranking 31st in the league passer ratings. The Eagles have held opposing running backs to 3.3 yards per run.
10-19-20	Cardinals v. Cowboys +1.5	Top	38-10	Loss	-109	85 h 22 m	Show
If Dak Prescott didn't get hurt, Dallas would be at least a field goal favorite. Now they are home underdogs despite the Cardinals not playing that well and being on the road for a third straight game. The Cowboys, as it turned out, made a shrewd move signing Andy Dalton. He is a decent QB when surrounded with weapons. Dalton certainly has them here with arguably the best running back in the NFL, Ezekiel Elliott, and the top wide receiving trio in the league with Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb. They could torch a Cardinals secondary whose cornerbacks have been struggling. Dallas is without both of its starting offensive tackles. The Cardinals, though, suffered a major loss themselves when star pass rusher Chandler Jones was lost for the season. They don't have anyone who can rush the passer nearly as well as Jones. The Cardinals have received very little from heralded first-round draft pick Isaiah Simmons. He's been non-existent up to this point. Even with Jones, the Cardinals ranked in the bottom-five in pressuring the quarterback. I'm expecting the Cowboys to be super up for this Monday night home game wanting to show the nation they can win in their first full game without Prescott. Dalton will have had a full week of practice working with the first unit. He should be up for the challenge against a mediocre defense that just lost their best player. The Cardinals are 1-2 in their last three games. Their only win during this span was against the Jets. Their losses came to the Lions and Panthers. Arizona is 3-2 on the season. The three opponents they've defeated have a combined mark of 3-12.
10-18-20	Rams v. 49ers OVER 51	Top	16-24	Loss	-118	82 h 21 m	Show
Take away Nick Bosa, Richard Sherman and assorted other defensive players and what is left for the 49ers? A defense that gave up 43 points at home to the Dolphins last week. The Rams' offense is far more potent than Miami's. The Rams have numerous receiving weapons, including two good tight ends, rank fourth in the NFL in total yards and have maybe the league's sharpest play-caller in Sean McVay. Jared Goff is having a big season. McVay has been surprisingly conservative at times this season. That shouldn't be the case here facing a banged-up 49ers' secondary and lacking their best pass rusher. The 49ers' offense should be far better this week. Jimmy Garoppolo is healthier and got the rust off last Sunday. He also has his weapons back, including San Francisco's No. 1 running back, Raheem Mostert. The Rams also have injuries in their secondary. LA ranks third in scoring defense holding foes to only 18 points a game. That number is misleading, though, since the 49ers held Washington and the Giants to a combined 19 points in its last two games. The Rams surrendered 35 points on the road to the Bills three games ago. There were 80 and 65 points, respectively, scored in the two meetings last season between the teams with the Rams winning, 41-39, and losing, 34-31.
10-18-20	Packers v. Bucs UNDER 56		10-38	Win	100	58 h 45 m	Show
I don't get why this total is so high? The Packers' defense isn't elite, but it's decent. Pass rusher Za'Darius Smith and cornerback Jaire Alexander are among the best at their respective positions. No Vita Vea for Tampa Bay. He's a tremendous run-stuffer. But Tampa Bay still has the No. 1 defense in the NFC. The Buccaneers give up the second-fewest yards per game in the NFL. Green Bay leads the NFL in scoring averaging 38 points. The Packers also have gone against all soft defenses - Vikings, Lions, Saints and Falcons. Every one of those teams rank among the bottom seven in points allowed. Aaron Rodgers has yet to face a pass rushing tandem the equal of Shaquil Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul. As for Tampa Bay's offense, we've yet to see vintage Tom Brady. Heck, Brady showed his age, having a senior moment by forgetting it was fourth down on the Bucs' final possession last week against the Bears. The Buccaneers' wideouts are banged-up and Leonard Fournette isn't likely to play leaving the running up to mediocre Ronald Jones.
10-18-20	Bengals +9.5 v. Colts		27-31	Win	100	55 h 1 m	Show
The Bengals are 10-4 ATS as road 'dogs and have shown marked improvement this season. Joe Burrow is living up to his hype and status as the No. 1 overall draft pick. He has solid skill position help and Cincinnati's offensive line is getting better. The Colts defense surrendered 32 points to the Browns last week despite Baker Mayfield playing at less than 100 percent and Cleveland missing Nick Chubb. Indy's defense isn't the same without star linebacker Darius Leonard, who is doubtful to play here. Cincinnati's defense is another facet that has improved. The Bengals sunk a lot of money into upgrading their defense. They finally got back their best defensive lineman, Geno Atkins, last week. The Colts don't have the offense to lay this big of a number. The Colts rank second-to-last in yards per rush at 3.6 per carry. Yet the Colts have to remain a ground-based, two-wide receiver, two-tight end offense because of wide receiver injuries and the steep decline of Philip Rivers, who has become one of the least effective starting QB's in the league.
10-18-20	Ravens -7.5 v. Eagles		30-28	Loss	-110	55 h 39 m	Show
The Eagles winning the Super Bowl three years ago has become a distant memory. The reality is they have an extremely banged-up offensive line, depleted receiving corps and a defense that gives up the 10th-most points a game with a leaky secondary that would be made worse if Darius Slay can't play due to a concussion. The Ravens don't have a dominant pass rusher. But their defense is opportunistic and well-coached. Baltimore ranks second in the NFL with 10 takeaways. The Ravens will try to exploit the Eagles' offensive line, which will be down their three best linemen if Lane Johnson can't play, with an assorted array of blizes and schemes. Carson Wentz has already been sacked 19 times and thrown nine interceptions. I see Baltimore holding all the advantages here. The Eagles won't even hold much off a home field edge with just 7,500 fans allowed into Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday.
10-18-20	Texans +4 v. Titans		36-42	Loss	-110	12 h 51 m	Show
The Texans are on the upswing following a much needed coaching change going from toxic Bill O'Brien to popular Romeo Crennel. The Texans responded to the move by getting their first victory, rolling past Jacksonville by 16 points last week. Houston played the hardest September schedule of any team. But now that portion of the schedule is finished and the Texans have their confidence and morale up. The Texans draw Tennessee in a vulnerable spot. The shorthanded Titans are fat and happy after rolling past the Bills, 42-16, this past Tuesday. So this is a very short week for Tennessee, which isn't up to full strength and is dealing with the distraction about its supposed lack of adherence to pandemic protocols. The Titans are 4-0, but their first three victories came by a combined six points all stemming from game-winning field goals that occurred with less than two minutes left. Tennessee is a more well-rounded team than Houston. But the Texans have the better quarterback and the two best defensive players in J.J. Watt and linebacker Zach Cunningham. If the Texans are going to get back into the AFC South Division race they need to win this game. They are the team with the greater urgency.
10-17-20	Texas A&M v. Mississippi State OVER 54		28-14	Loss	-115	27 h 58 m	Show
Don't be fooled by Mississippi State scoring just two points against Kentucky last week. The Bulldogs were done in by six interceptions. Say what you will about Mike Leach, but he is resourceful and innovative with his passing schemes. Texas A&M gave up 435 passing yards to Alabama and 312 passing yards to Florida during its last two games.The Aggies surrendered an average of 45 points during those two matchups. I see Mississippi State scoring big like it did against LSU when it produced 44 points. The Aggies rank 20th in the nation in total yards. They are coming off a 41-point performance against Florida. Mississippi State's defense is stepping up in class after having faced Kentucky and Arkansas in its last two games.
10-17-20	UMass v. Georgia Southern -31		0-41	Win	100	26 h 17 m	Show
UMass probably was doing college football a favor by electing to cancel its season. The Minutemen would not be missed. They are terrible. However, UMass decided to opt back in. That was just three weeks ago. You can imagine how little preparation time the Minutemen have. This game wasn't even scheduled until Oct. 8. Georgia Southern had a hole in its schedule because coronavirus forced postponement of their original opponent, far-stronger Appalachian State. So Georgia Southern won't lose a beat. The Eagles already have played three games. UMass barely has a depth chart. The Minutemen are likely to go with Mike Fallon at QB. He's thrown for 40 years during his four years with the program. Georgia Southern should bury UMass with its triple-option attack. The Eagles are the fourth-highest rushing team in the country. UMass played Army last season. That was the one foe that also ran a triple-option offense. Army buried the Minutemen, 63-7.
10-17-20	Central Florida -2.5 v. Memphis	Top	49-50	Loss	-109	25 h 53 m	Show
Central Florida has had two weeks to stew and think about its previous game - a home game the Knights lost straight-up to Tulsa as three-touchdown favorites. The ramifications of that stunning loss are two-fold: The Knights should come out extremely fired-up and ready. They also have discount value as the marketplace has knocked them down to being less than a field goal favorite. Central Florida is better than Memphis. But that loss to Tulsa hurt the Knights' prestige. They'll look to gain it back here against a foe they are 13-1 lifetime against with 13 straight victories. The teams didn't meet last year, but Central Florida beat the Tigers a combined four times during the 2017 and 2018 seasons. UCF has too much speed and skill position talent for the Tigers to handle. Knights sophomore QB Dillon Garbriel is one of the more underrated players in the country. Memphis is down from previous seasons because of coaching upheaval and lost talent. The Tigers don't have the defense to keep UCF in check, nor enough offense to keep up with the Knights. The Tigers' home field advantage is reduced, too, because only around 10,000 fans will be allowed into the 61,008-set Liberty Bowl due to COVID-19 restrictions.
10-17-20	Duke v. NC State OVER 58.5		20-31	Loss	-110	19 h 50 m	Show
Thanks to improved offensive line play, Duke's offense is coming on. The Blue Devils scored 31 points versus Virginia Tech two weeks ago and lit up Syracuse for 38 points, 36 first downs and 645 yards this past Saturday. Deon Jackson and Mataeo Durant each ran for more than 160 yards in that game for Duke. North Carolina State has gone Over in each of its four games. That's not a surprise considering the Wolfpack average 34.3 points a game while giving up exactly 34.3 points per game. The Blue Devils allow 30.6 points a game. These teams are explosive and up-tempo. I expect each team to hit 30 points again.
10-17-20	Louisville v. Notre Dame UNDER 64		7-12	Win	100	50 h 41 m	Show
Only 7 teams allow fewer points than Notre Dame. But the biggest handicap to the Under is bad weather in the forecast. Heavy winds are being forecast for this matchup in South Bend. There could be gusts in the 30-35 mph range. Neither team plays at a fast pace either. So there should be lots of running due to the weather conditions.
10-16-20	SMU v. Tulane UNDER 65	Top	37-34	Loss	-114	38 h 34 m	Show
Both teams have suffered key skill position injuries. SMU has lost its best wide receiver, Reggie Roberson, and top running back, TJ McDaniel, for the season. Tulane is down its best running back, Tyjae Spears, for the year. The Green Wave also suffered two starting offensive line injuries to left tackle Joey Claybrook and right guard Josh Remetich last week. Both are questionable this week. Claybrook is a key because true freshman quarterback Michael Pratt has made just one start. He didn't produce good numbers in his first start against Houston last week. SMU has held its four opponents to an average of 23.3 points. SMU kept Memphis, which ranks eighth in the nation in yards, to 27 points in its last game. A key here is Tulane's defense is overdue to play better. The Green Wave start seven seniors and four juniors on defense. They had their entire defensive front four return, including Patrick Johnson and Cameron Sample. Defense was supposed to be a strength. Instead the Green Wave have surrendered 31 points and 395.2 yards a game. Improvement should come.
10-15-20	Georgia State v. Arkansas State -3	Top	52-59	Win	100	17 h 40 m	Show
Oddsmakers are projecting another Sun Belt Conference shootout in this matchup. We do have two good offenses going here. But Arkansas State has better defensive players and its defense has gotten healthier. Defensive lineman Forrest Merrill is a pro prospect and linebacker Justin Rice won Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Week honors last week. Arkansas State is holding foes to 3.6 yards rushing. The Red Wolves have played four games this season, including the past two weeks. Georgia State only has played twice. The Panthers were idle last week. So Arkansas State should be the more in sync team. Arkansas State has a strong home field advantage. The Red Wolves have been above .500 at Centennial Bank Stadium during each of the last 15 years. They are 44-10 in their last 54 home games. They also are 16-5 during their last 21 midweek games. Centennial Bank Stadium holds around 31,000. There will be seating for 12,000, which would give the Red Wolves about 40 percent fan capacity. Georgia State is 2-10-2 ATS in its last 14 away contests. Arkansas State has covered in four of its last five home games. The Red Wolves have revenge for a 52-38 road loss to Georgia State last year. Arkansas State had won the previous six meetings. Georgia State is breaking in a new quarterback. The Panthers have committed five turnovers in their two games. That's a red flag and another reason why I like Arkansas State to get the cover. .
10-12-20	Chargers v. Saints UNDER 50	Top	27-30	Loss	-104	15 h 4 m	Show
Quarterbacks usually are the focal point. But give a close look to the trenches and that each team will be missing a key skill position player. When doing that this matchup spells Under to me. The Chargers rank 13th in scoring defense. They have a premier pass rusher in Joey Bosa, good run-stuffing linebackers and a solid secondary. Michael Thomas will be missing his fourth straight game. There's a big drop from Thomas to the Saints' other wide receivers. Offensive tackle Ryan Ramczyk is questionable after suffering a concussion last week. New Orleans ranks sixth in run defense and 14th in pass defense. This is rookie Justin Herbert's first NFL dome game and just his second road start. He won't have Austin Ekeler, the Chargers' best running back, nor will he have his three best offensive linemen. Center Mike Pouncey is done for the season. Right tackle Bryan Bulaga and right guard Trai Turner have been ruled out for this week. This means the Chargers have backups at three spots and their two left side offensive line starters, Sam Tevi and Forrest Lamp, are below average. Tevi ranks among the league's worst in missing pass blocks. Saints star pass rusher Cameron Jordan has the second-highest pressure rate in the league among defensive linemen. Despite being in different conferences, the teams have a familiarity. They have faced each other in joint practices the past couple of years. This should be a plus for the Under as neither team figures to get caught off-guard.
10-11-20	Colts v. Browns +1.5		23-32	Win	100	57 h 47 m	Show
Indy ranks first defensively. But I'm not buying that the Colts have the best defense, especially missing their top defensive player, injured linebacker Darius Leonard. The Colts have faced the Jaguars, Vikings, Jets and Bears. The Browns are the most balanced offense they've gone against. The Browns have produced 34 or more points each of the last three weeks. Kareem Hunt is a capable bellcow running back with Nick Chubb injured. Baker Mayfield is in a better system with better coaching. Odell Beckham Jr. is flashing his immense talents again. Indy can't match Cleveland's firepower. The Browns have held their opponents to 3.5 yard per rush, which ranks fifth-best. The Browns lead the NFL with 11 takeaways. Their banged-up secondary is getting healthier. So this is a tough matchup for a conservative Colts offense that relies on rookie RB Jonathan Taylor and over-the-hill Philip Rivers to play game-manager.
10-11-20	Bengals +13 v. Ravens		3-27	Loss	-110	53 h 27 m	Show
The Ravens aren't close to where they want to be while the Bengals are an improved bunch. Joe Burrow just hasn't been the first rookie QB to throw for 300 yards in three consecutive games. He's done much more giving the Bengals hope and confidence. Baltimore ranks just 11th in offensive efficiency. The Ravens' offensive line is playing below their level and Lamar Jackson is off to a slow start. He might not be 100 percent healthy either. The Ravens had fewer first downs and lost the time of possession against lowly Washington last Sunday. Cincinnati has played the Ravens tough covering six of the past seven meetings. Baltimore hasn't been good as home chalk under John Harbaugh going 6-12 ATS the past 18 times as a home favorite.
10-11-20	Cardinals -7 v. Jets		30-10	Win	100	53 h 25 m	Show
The Cardinals have far more talent than the Jets. Arizona, though, has underachieved in its last two games losing to the Lions and Panthers on the road. I see the Cardinals rebounding against a perfect patsy here. The winless Jets have been outscored by 66 points. That's the worst point differential in the league. The Giants are a distant second at minus 49. The Jets are at this low mark with Sam Darnold at QB, too. Darnold has regressed, but he's still far better than backup Joe Flacco, who will replace the injured Darnold in this game. The Jets also are likely to be missing their injured star rookie offensive left tackle Mekhi Becton. Chandler Jones should be in for a monster game if Becton can't go. The Jets' offense has produced just 5 TD's in four games. Morale is low with the Jets. I get the impression they don't care if they win or lose because many of their players dislike coach Adam Gase.
10-11-20	Eagles v. Steelers -7		29-38	Win	100	53 h 24 m	Show
The Steelers are fresh after getting an unexpected bye. Before their bye they led the NFL in sacks. They average five sacks a game. Carson Wentz isn't having a good season. He's been sunk by multiple injuries in Philly's offensive line and receiving corps. Because of that this is a bad matchup for the Eagles. The Steelers blitz from all angles. The Eagles' offensive line already is down Brandon Brooks and Jason Peters and now Lane Johnson is hurting. Ben Roethlisberger has shown he's fine with 7 TD passes in three games and just one interception. A healthy James Conner makes a difference, too, for the Steelers' offense. Pittsburgh is traditionally strong in October under Mike Tomlin going 20-7-1 ATS.
10-11-20	Panthers v. Falcons OVER 53.5	Top	23-16	Loss	-105	54 h 30 m	Show
The Panthers have shown they have plenty of weapons and can put up points despite missing Christian McCaffrey. Teddy Bridgewater has the third-highest completion percentage in the NFL. Robbie Anderson and D.J. Moore rank among the best wide receiver tandems in the league and Mike Davis has been solid filling in for McCaffrey. The Falcons are decimated in the secondary especially at safety. Atlanta is giving up 34.5 points per game, second-most in the NFL. Atlanta, though, can produce points with excellent skill position strength even if Julio Jones doesn't play. Veteran Matt Ryan can exploit a young Carolina defense. So I have no trouble envisioning each team producing at least 27 points especially playing inside Atlanta's fast-track dome.
10-10-20	Charlotte v. North Texas +3		49-21	Loss	-110	16 h 52 m	Show
North Texas is averaging 41 points a game. The Mean Green has scored 31 or more points in each of their three games. However, the Mean Green are surrendering 45.7 points. Their defense should look much better this week getting back linebacker Tyreke Davis and facing a weak Charlotte offense that averages just 18.5 points per game. I expect North Texas' offense to continue humming if not being even better with the decision to start Austin Aune at quarterback. He threw for 339 yards and two touchdowns in a 41-31 loss to Southern Mississippi last week. If North Texas would have played a clean game it likely would have won. But the Mean Green lost three fumbles. I see them playing better this week. They have a far superior offense and their defense draws a weak offense.
10-10-20	Kansas State +9 v. TCU	Top	21-14	Win	100	25 h 31 m	Show
Gary Patterson is a good coach, but not when it comes to covering the spread as a home favorite. TCU stunningly has failed to accomplish that 21 of the past 27 (22 percent) times in that role. I don't see the Horned Frogs changing that trend in this matchup. TCU has a young team and is off a huge road victory against Texas as a double-digit 'dog. So a letdown is very possible. Kansas State is 6-1 ATS the past seven times as a road 'dog. The Wildcats have shown they are an underrated team upsetting Texas Tech and Oklahoma during their last two games. The line is too high here. This could be a reaction to K-State QB Skylar Thompson getting injured last week. Thompson could be ready to go here. Even if he isn't, though, I'm fine with backup QB Will Howard, who threw for 173 yards against Texas Tech after replacing Thompson. The Wildcats have an intriguing weapon in 5-foot-5, 168-pound fresham all-purpose back Deuce Vaughn. He's the only player in the Big 12 to lead his team in rushing and receiving and is the only player in the country to have both 200 rushing and receiving yards. Some of the Horned Frogs' home field edge is reduced because of limited capacity. Only 12,000 spectators will be allowed into 46,000 Amon Carter Stadium because of the pandemic.
10-10-20	Arkansas v. Auburn -13.5	Top	28-30	Loss	-110	25 h 39 m	Show
Congrats to Arkansas' first-year head coach Sam Pittman in the Razorbacks upsetting then-No. 16 Mississippi State, 21-14, as 16 1/2-point road 'dogs last week. That was the Razorbacks' first SEC win following 20 straight conference losses. Don't expect the Razorbacks to make it two straight SEC victories. Not only do the Razorbacks face the challenge of a second straight league road game, but they have to refocus while drawing an angry Auburn. The Tigers lost to third-ranked Georgia last week. Arkansas has an improved defense. Still, the Razorbacks remain far inferior to Auburn. The Tigers blew out Arkansas, 51-10, on the road last year. There isn't a 41-point difference this season. But the gap still is more than two touchdowns.
10-08-20	Bucs v. Bears UNDER 45	Top	19-20	Win	100	32 h 53 m	Show
Look for defense to rule here. The Buccaneers rank No. 2 in run defense and give up the fourth fewest yards. The Bears have given up just three passing TD's, fewest in the league. Chicago also draws an extremely banged-up Tampa Bay offense. The Buccaneers won't have O.J. Howard and probably not Chris Godwin. They also could be minus running back Leonard Fournette and LeSean McCoy leaving plodding Ronald Jones to handle the running load. The Bucs' remaining wideouts - Mike Evans, Scotty Miller and Justin Watson - aren't at 100 percent either. Playing on Thursday really hurts the Bucs. The Bears are a below average running team and Nick Foles looked worse than Mitch Trubisky. Foles was really hurt with no preseason games to get his timing down with his new team. This will be just his second start with the Bears. I'm not expecting much.
10-08-20	Tulane v. Houston OVER 59	Top	31-49	Win	100	40 h 10 m	Show
Tulane defeated Houston, 38-31, in one of the wildest games of the season last year. Certainly those like myself, who had Houston plus 4, will never forget it. Much has changed since then. But one thing should remain the same: This should be another high-scoring game. Tulane has a very sharp offensive coordinator, Will Hall. The Green Wave posted their third-highest total in points (33.1) and yards (449.3) in Hall's first year last season. Tulane lost a lot of offensive talent from last season. It has taken three games, but Tulane has found its rhythm with the quarterback switch to freshman Michael Pratt. The Green Wave scored 59 points when Pratt took over at QB against Southern Mississippi in a 66-24 victory last week. Houston ranked near the bottom in the nation in total defense and pass defense, while surrendering 34 points a game last year. I mention last year's numbers, because the Cougars have yet to play this season due to three straight cancellations caused by COVID-19. The Cougars also feature an offensive mastermind in head coach Dana Holgorsen. QB Clayton Tune received plenty of experience last season after D'Eriq King sat out the last eight games before transferring to Miami. Tune has proven playmakers around him headed by Marquez Stevenson, one of the better senior wide receivers in college. This is a step up for Tulane's defense, which has gone against South Alabama, Navy and Southern Mississippi. Certainly, the Cougars will be fresh with lots of energy.
10-04-20	Bills -2.5 v. Raiders	Top	30-23	Win	100	125 h 14 m	Show
Only Kansas City and Baltimore are better AFC teams than Buffalo. The Bills are several levels higher than the Raiders especially with Las Vegas dealing with a cluster injury problem at wide receiver and in its offensive line. The spread is short because the Bills are traveling cross-country fresh off a victory while drawing the Raiders in an angry mood following their loss to the Patriots. Don't overthink these situational factors, though. Buffalo is far better than Las Vegas on both sides of the ball with Josh Allen developing into an elite force in this his third season. Allen already has set a Buffalo team record by accounting for a dozen TD's through three games. The Bills are healthy again at linebacker. Their defensive line has tremendous depth and their secondary is very good. Derek Carr could be down two starting offensive linemen and three wide receivers. Buffalo is giving up just 17.2 points in its last 10 away matchups. The Bills also have covered 78 percent of their past 11 road contests.
10-04-20	Seahawks v. Dolphins +7		31-23	Loss	-120	123 h 57 m	Show
Russell Wilson is covering up a lot of flaws for Seattle such as a mediocre defense that doesn't apply much quarterback heat and will be without star safety Jamal Adams. This is a terrible spot for the Seahawks - a cross-country trip, early start time and brutal South Florida humidity. Seattle is fat and happy off back-to-back marquee home victories against the Patriots and Cowboys in see-saw type games. Miami, on the other hand, is on extended rest having played Thursday night. When Ryan Fitzpatrick is hot the Dolphins are competitive. And Fitzpatrick is playing well. The Dolphins are improved in the second year of their rebuild under Brian Flores.
10-04-20	Chargers v. Bucs UNDER 45		31-38	Loss	-109	123 h 53 m	Show
It's not a big surprise the Under is 3-0 in Chargers' games this season. The Chargers under Anthony Lynn are a dead-nuts Under team. Lynn runs a conservative offense relying on a strong defense to win the overall field position battle. Lynn is not going to change that style especially with rookie QB Justin Herbert set to face the toughest defense he's ever seen. The Buccaneers have an upper level defense. They are fourth in takeaways and fourth in total yards. Tampa Bay led the NFL in run defense last season. This year they rank third. The Buccaneers' offense, though, remains a work-in-progress. Tom Brady is far less of a risk taker than Jameis Winston preferring short, safe throws instead of attacking over the top. Brady is still trying to get in sync with his new team. Brady is getting a downgrade in offensive lines from the ones he's had in New England.
10-04-20	Ravens -14 v. Washington Football Team		31-17	Push	0	36 h 43 m	Show
The Ravens are in a foul mood after being embarrassed at home by the Chiefs this past Monday night. I can easily envision the Ravens running overmatched Washington into the ground. Lamar Jackson needs to re-establish his MVP credentials. Washington had one thing going - a strong defensive line. Now that's been sabotaged with Chase Young out with a groin injury and underrated Matt Ioannidis out for the season. I'm against tanking. But if any team should consider tanking it would be Washington. Dwayne Haskins is the worst starting QB in the NFL - and it's not even close. Washington's morale had to take a hit against Cleveland last week. Washington was hanging in on pace to cover a touchdown spread, if not pull an outright upset, until Haskins threw a brutal interception that turned the game around. This is hardly a road trip for Baltimore, just around 35 miles to Washington. No fans in the stands either so Washington doesn't really have a home field advantage.
10-04-20	Chargers v. Bucs -6.5		31-38	Win	100	36 h 42 m	Show
The left side of the Chargers' offensive line consisting of tackle Sam Tevi and guard Forrest Lamp is one of the worst in the NFL. Now, coupled with starting center Mike Pouncey and the right side of the offensive line with guard Trai Turner and tackle Bryan Bulaga being out, I have to lay the touchdown with the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay's Todd Bowles is one of the better defensive coordinators in the NFL. He has a lot to work with here. The Buccaneers are a top run-stop unit and they're likely to get a lot of sacks against pocket passer rookie Justin Herbert. The Buccaneers' offense should improve as the season progresses. It has enough weapons for Tom Brady to safely put up enough points to cover this number. The Chargers have a couple of key defensive injuries and are traveling cross country. An early start time for them certainly is not a plus either.
10-03-20	Auburn v. Georgia -6.5		6-27	Win	100	34 h 55 m	Show
Much is being made of Georgia's up-in-the-air QB situation. The Bulldogs won't suffer there, though. They have plenty of talent. There needs to be some focus about the trenches and that's where the Bulldogs will whip the Tigers. Auburn took some big hits on its defensive lines and has five new offensive linemen. So I prefer Georgia's offense and pedigree. The Bulldogs have won 12 of the last 15 in this series, including the past three and six of the last seven. They've had 10 victories by seven or more points. Georgia also has a history of fast starts under Kirby Smart opening 5-0 each of the last three years with all but two of those victories coming by 14 or more points.
10-03-20	Oklahoma -7 v. Iowa State	Top	30-37	Loss	-108	34 h 56 m	Show
I want Oklahoma going for me in a bounce-back spot after the Sooners were upset by Kansas State at home last week even though they outgained the Wildcats by 117 yards.The Sooners may have gotten complacent in that game with a 35-14 lead. The Sooners haven't lost consecutive regular season games in 21 years. Iowa State has talent, but the Cyclones aren't in the Sooners' elite class. The Cyclones already were beaten by Louisiana-Lafayette as 12-point home favorites and defeated TCU by three points. Oklahoma has dominated this series winning 20 of the last 21 meetings. The Sooners have won 24 in a row at Iowa State.
10-03-20	UTSA v. UAB OVER 54.5		13-21	Loss	-104	27 h 47 m	Show
Both teams have well above average offenses and vulnerable defenses. UTSA averages 37.3 points and has a balanced attack. UAB puts up 33.7 points a game. The Blazers are balanced, too. San Antonio's Sincere McCormick and Birmingham's Spencer Brown are two of the best running backs in Conference USA. The Blazers rank 56th in run defense, while the Roadrunners rank 64th in pass defense. UTSA ranks 18th in rushing. The Blazers rate among the top 37 teams in the major offensive categories including total yards, scoring, passing and rushing.
10-02-20	Louisiana Tech v. BYU OVER 59	Top	14-45	Push	0	17 h 8 m	Show
This total is high, but not high enough given how balanced and deadly these two offenses are. Louisiana Tech QB Luke Anthony has thrown eight TD passes in two games spreading the ball around to a bevy of targets. The Bulldogs are the sixth-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 48.5 points. BYU has scored 103 points in two games, ranking in the top 10 in both passing and rushing. The Cougars rank second in the nation averaging 51.5 points. The Bulldogs have the offense to hang in for a while, but they could wilt down the stretch playing in mountain altitude leading to a lot of late scoring.
10-01-20	Broncos +2 v. Jets	Top	37-28	Win	100	16 h 59 m	Show
Welcome to the Toilet Bowl. There are three AFC teams who are 0-3. These are two of them. The third is the Texans, who have played at the Chiefs, Ravens and at the Steelers. There has been drastic line movement in this matchup with the Jets now the favorite. Much of this line change is due to the Broncos switching quarterbacks going from backup Jeff Driskel to third-stringer Brett Rypien with Drew Lock out. I actually prefer Rypien over Driskel, who is 1-8 as an NFL starter. Denver is making the long journey to the East Coast. But much of this disadvantage is off-set by this being a night game and fans not being allowed in the stands at MetLife Field. The Jets have lost by a combined 57 points, an average of 19 points a game. They've lost to the Bills, battered 49ers and Colts. Denver has two close losses, falling to the Titans by two and to the Steelers on the road by five points. Tennessee and Pittsburgh are each 3-0. Even with the Broncos going with a reserve QB, I still rate them superior to the Jets. Denver has the best pass rusher, Bradley Chubb, and more weapons than the Jets with Melvin Gordon, Noah Fant and Jerry Jeudy. The Broncos also might get back talented all-purpose back Phillip Lindsay. Sam Darnold has regressed. Perhaps he's seeing ghosts again confused by Adam Gase's complex offense. Gase has a history of getting underachieving performances from players who have thrived when they have gotten away from him. Ryan Tannehill and Kenyan Drake are two prime examples. Darnold might fall into that category, too. There's an intangible element here. Speculation is Gase could get fired if the Jets lose this game. Gase is not popular with some of his players. This leaves you to wonder if some Jets are secretly hoping they lose this game in the hopes Gase gets canned? If that were to happen, an interim Jets coach would have 10 days to get ready for the next game so the timing would be good.
09-28-20	Chiefs v. Ravens OVER 54	Top	34-20	Push	0	13 h 46 m	Show
Yes this is a high total. But it's not high enough considering the teams and situation. It's rare to find the Chiefs with a healthy Patrick Mahomes as an underdog. The Over has covered five of the six times it has happened. The Chiefs should score more than 25 points having accomplished that 84 percent of the time when Mahomes has been the starter. Kansas City's offense potentially could be even better than last season with an upgrade at tailback with rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The Chiefs' defense has given up more than 6 yards per play in both of their games and face fatigue issues traveling West to East after being on the field for nearly 80 plays during last week's road overtime game against the Chargers. Kansas City is especially vulnerable to mobile quarterbacks and Lamar Jackson is the best running QB in the NFL. The Ravens should encounter little resistance on the ground, which in turn will set up Jackson's passing. The Chargers rushed for 183 yards against the Chiefs. The Ravens are a far better running team. The Over should be helped, too, by rules skewed to high-scoring games and official's calling less penalties this season.
09-27-20	Packers v. Saints -3		37-30	Loss	-110	82 h 52 m	Show
Green Bay enters New Orleans puffed up with a 2-0 mark. They're going to draw an angry Saints squad that was embarrassed losing to the Raiders this past Monday night. The Packers' offensive line was able to control Detroit's weak defensive line and a much-regressed Vikings defense line devoid of injured Danielle Hunter. Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Jones took it from there being instrumental in Green Bay producing 85 points and 1,010 yards of offense in its first two games. Green Bay, however, won't have it so easy against a good and deep Saints' defensive line. The Saints are healthy defensively compared to the Lions and Vikings. Once you get past Jones and Davante Adams, the Packers are shallow at the skill position spots and tight end without any consistent playmakers. The Packers were able to cover up their defensive deficiencies because their offense was humming. That won't be the case here. Even without Michael Thomas, the Saints have a balanced attack. As good as Jones is, he's trumped by Alvin Kamara. Given the matchup and situation, the Saints are a value at minus just a field goal.
09-27-20	Bucs -6 v. Broncos		28-10	Win	100	78 h 23 m	Show
Part of the Broncos historically being tough at home is their edge playing at Mile High Stadium. But only 5,700 fans will be allowed to attend, which is 7.5 percent capacity. So the Broncos' home field advantage is reduced. That makes the Buccaneers even more attractive because matchup-wise they should dominate. Denver's defense is down due to injuries to Von Miller and cornerback A.J. Bouye. The Broncos have just two sacks on 86 dropbacks having faced Ryan Tannehill and Ben Roethlisberger. Tom Brady has better weapons than those two quarterbacks especially with Chris Godwin back healthy and Leonard Fournette giving Tampa Bay its best running back in several years. The Broncos did not do a good job in backing up Drew Lock, who is out with a rotator cuff strain. Jeff Driskel is a career backup and not a very good one. He's inaccurate and takes too many sacks. Denver also is without its best wideout, Courtland Sutton, and all-purpose back, Phillip Lindsay. The Buccaneers have a stout defense. They led the NFL in rush defense last season and have the pass rushers to take full advantage of Driskel's inadequacies.
09-27-20	Bucs v. Broncos UNDER 42.5		28-10	Win	100	38 h 41 m	Show
Take out Drew Lock, Courtland Sutton and Phillip Lindsay and Denver's offense isn't so promising. Instead the Broncos face a run-stuffing elite Tampa Bay defense with nothing but dink-and-dunk backup QB Jeff Drisel and Melvin Gordon. The Bucs led the NFL in run defense last season and held their first two foes, Saints and Panthers, to 2.5 yards rushing. Gordon isn't nearly as good a back as Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara. The Buccaneers also have excellent pass rushers headed by former Bronco Shaq Barrett, who led the NFL in sacks last season. I envision the Broncos going very conservative here with their conservative coach, defensive-minded Vic Fangio. Fangio probably is one of the three best defensive coaches in the NFL. Denver's defense is not dominant anymore, but it remains respectable. The Broncos defense catches Tampa Bay at a good time. The Buccaneers' offense is not yet in sync as they transition in Tom Brady and Leonard Fournette. The Bucs aren't the pass-happy team of a year ago when Jameis Winston was under center. They are more balanced now with Fournette, a ground-and-pound inside running back. Brady hasn't been overly sharp. He's thrown interceptions in his last four games and is averaging 228 passing yards in his first two games with Tampa Bay. Neither offense is going to be helped by the weather conditions either with heavy winds expected.
09-27-20	Bengals v. Eagles OVER 46		23-23	Push	0	75 h 25 m	Show
Scoring is on a record pace this season in the NFL aided by the official's calling far fewer penalties, which probably is by league design. So to get this total before it hits 47 - a key totals number - is a real plus. Joe Burrow continues to impress. He's looked very good both with his throwing and mobility. Burrow has the targets and a good running back, Joe Mixon, to keep the Eagles off-balance. The Eagles have a vulnerable secondary and Burrow has the receivers to take advantage. The Eagles are due for a big-scoring game. This is a right opponent for that to happen. The Bengals surrender 5.5 yards per run - good news for Miles Sanders - and have just one sack, great news for a banged-up Eagles offensive line and Carson Wentz.
09-27-20	49ers v. Giants +4		36-9	Loss	-115	55 h 45 m	Show
The 49ers got away with being road chalk of more than a field goal last Sunday because they were playing the Jets. The Giants aren't very good either, but they are not the Jets. They are a level higher. I don't see San Francisco escaping MetLife Stadium, a place it hates to play, with back-to-back road victories. The 49ers are just too banged-up. Yes, the Giants are down Saquan Barkley and Sterling Shepard. Barkley is their best player. Still, the Giants' injuries don't compare to how many key players are out for the 49ers. Let's start with defense where both the 49ers' line and secondary are heavily reduced with Nick Bosa, Solomon Thomas, Dee Ford and Richard Sherman all out. Bosa and Ford are the team's best pass rushers. Sherman is their best cornerback and a team leader. That's just on defense. Now go to offense where the 49ers are without their starting center, two best running backs, top wide receiver and oh yes, quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. Kyle Shanahan can game plan all he wants, but he doesn't have the pieces to formulate anything other than a conservative just-try-to-get-alive-out-of-here mentality. It's not just physical with the 49ers. They are mentally not right about playing at this stadium believing the carpet helped cause some of their many injuries. The Giants are good enough to take advantage. They nearly upset the Bears on the road last week after losing Barkley early in the game. Daniel Jones has upside and other decent wide receivers besides Shepard. The Giants' defense also has made strides. At 0-2, the Giants are in must-win mode. The 49ers are going to take New York's best punch. I don't see them being able to withstand it in their crippled situation.
09-27-20	Washington Football Team +7.5 v. Browns		20-34	Loss	-117	34 h 15 m	Show
Now that the line has gotten past a touchdown, I'm going to get involved with Washington. There are a number of below-the-surface factors that point to Washington keeping this game close. Washington is better coached this season, hasn't shown any quit and ranks first in the league in sacks. Washington also is No. 1 in Football Outsiders' DVOA defensive ranking, a metric that measures a team's production versus league average. Washington's offense is learning a new system. Improvement should come each week. The Browns get back cornerback Kevin Johnson and linebacker Mack Wilson. However, they will be without cornerback Greedy Williams, Olivier Vernon,, their second-best pass rusher, and star cornerback Denzel Ward is questionable after injuring a groin muscle in practice. Terry McLaurin is Washington's one dangerous playmaker. He could be set up for success if Ward can't go. Washington knows its offensive limitations. So they've centered their attack around throwing short passes to their running backs. This could work against Cleveland, which remains thin in the secondary. The Browns have not played well on special teams. They have one of the more worrisome kicking situations. Bottom line is the Browns, who are 12-25-1 ATS in their last 38 home games, just aren't a strong enough overall team to lay this many points against a feisty underdog.
09-27-20	Raiders v. Patriots -6	Top	20-36	Win	100	76 h 53 m	Show
Just a terrible spot for Las Vegas. The Raiders are traveling cross-country off a monster home upset win against the Saints this past Monday night. The Patriots may have the best secondary in football. The Patriots also have limited their opponents to the third-fewest snaps. Derek Carr has gone against Bill Belichick twice. Carr has completed less than 60 percent of his throws, has fewer than a 5.0 YPA and has a 1-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in those two combined games. The Raiders also could be without both of their starting offensive tackles. Richie Incognito is out with an Achilles injury and Trent Brown is dealing with a calf injury. Cam Newton appears to be a perfect fit for New England. He looked great against Seattle last week throwing for 444 yards and three TD's. Newton remains a huge running threat. The Raiders are giving up 27 points a game. Las Vegas is catching New England off a loss. The Patriots have covered 70 percent of their last 60 games following a defeat.
09-26-20	Kansas v. Baylor -17.5		14-47	Win	100	26 h 28 m	Show
Baylor has owned Kansas covering the past eight times. The Jayhawks have been held to less than double-digit scoring each of the past five seasons in this matchup. I expect Baylor's defense to remain strong with defensive guru Dave Aranda taking over as head coach from Matt Ruhle. Aranda inherits a defense that gave up the 19th-fewest points, was seventh in sacks and No. 2 in takeaways. The Jayhawks showed they aren't going to be very good again by losing, 38-23, to Coastal Carolina in their first game two weeks ago. Kansas trailed 28-3 in that game. The Jayhawks' top playmaker is running back Pooka Williams, and he's banged-up.
09-26-20	Stephen F Austin +35.5 v. SMU		7-50	Loss	-110	26 h 60 m	Show
SMU has a Top 25-worthy offense. But the Mustangs have a leaky defense. The combination of SMU likely dipping into their reserves and their defensive vulnerability should allow Stephen F. Austin to cover this large number. The Lumberjacks are an FCS school. But they've played two FBS teams this season, scoring 24 points each against UTEP and UTSA. Stephen F. Austin is much improved from its 3-9 record of last year. The Lumberjacks are a decent FCS team. SMU surrendered 24 points to Texas State and 35 to North Texas. Stephen F. Austin has the firepower to produce at least 24 points again.
09-26-20	Iowa State v. TCU +3		37-34	Push	0	21 h 31 m	Show
I'm not buying Iowa State as a road favorite against TCU. The Horned Frogs have defeated the Cyclones four of the last five times they've hosted them. Iowa State is 0-5-1 ATS the past six times it has laid points. TCU should be improved on both sides of the ball. The Horned Frogs are extremely anxious to begin their season after an early postponement. Iowa State is 0-1. The Cyclones were upset by Louisiana-Lafayette unable to handle the Ragin Cajuns' big plays. TCU is explosive, too. Brock Purdy did not have a good game for Iowa State in that loss. Purdy certainly is worthy of respect, but so is TCU's safety tandem of Ar'Darius Washington and Trevon Moehrig. They are considered by some to be among the best safeties in college football.
09-24-20	Dolphins v. Jaguars OVER 48	Top	31-13	Loss	-110	20 h 57 m	Show
Through two weeks, the NFL is on a record scoring pace with an average of 50.4 points per game. That's the highest mark since the 1970 merger between the AFL and NFL. It's not a fluke. There is new leadership in the NFL's officiating department. It's clear their emphasis - perhaps league mandated -- is to only call obvious penalties. Because penalties are at their fewest in 18 years. This has helped result in Overs covering 66 percent at 21-11. I expect another Over in this matchup being a nationally televised stand alone Thursday night game featuring offenses that are much better than their defenses. Jacksonville is a top-10 scoring team averaging 28.5 points. Gardner Minshew has underrated receiving targets and running back James Robinson has been one of the season's early surprises. The Dolphins have faced quarterbacks Cam Newton and Josh Allen. Neither is known for their accuracy. Miami allowed them to go 39-of-54 passing for 72.2 percent with a 10.6 yards per attempt and a 4-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Those two combined to rush for nearly 100 yards, too, with two rushing touchdowns. Miami is likely to be without its top cornerback also as Byron Jones has a groin injury. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a good quarterback to have going for you when he's going against a bad defense and you're betting an Over. Fitzpatrick isn't afraid to throw deep. He attacks and also is careless with the ball resulting in interceptions. Fitzpatrick should be throwing a lot because Miami has a bad run-blocking offensive line and the Jaguars once strong secondary has been gutted. Jacksonville only has two sacks, too. This is a far easier defense for Fitzpatrick to solve after Miami opened against the Patriots and Bills. The Jaguars gave up 363 passing yards to the Colts in Week 1 and were torched for four TD passes by Ryan Tannehill last Sunday.
09-21-20	Saints v. Raiders UNDER 49	Top	24-34	Loss	-110	63 h 38 m	Show
The Saints have an excellent defense with tremendous depth. It's their offense, though, that gets most of the attention. New Orleans' offense, however, isn't going to be as good as Michael Thomas is out with a high ankle sprain. There's a huge drop from Thomas, maybe the best wide receiver in the NFL, to the rest of the Saints' wideouts. The Raiders' defense is young, but has potential. It's a better unit now that underrated safety and sparkplug Jonathan Abram is healthy. He had 13 tackles in Week 1. The Saints should be able to keep Derek Carr and Las Vegas' offense in check. Carr is more game manager than gunslinger having reached 300 yards passing just once in his last 20 starts. The Saints' defensive coordinator is Dennis Allen, who is familiar with Carr having been the Raiders' head coach from 2012-2014.
09-20-20	Patriots +4 v. Seahawks		30-35	Loss	-108	35 h 45 m	Show
Seattle is not an elite team. The Seahawks are a borderline playoff team that can be beat in the trenches. Their sack rate ranked among the bottom three last year. The Seahawks, though, have three things going for them - a tremendous home field, excellent coaching and Russell Wilson. All of those huge Seattle pluses are negated here. There are not going to be any fans at CenturyLink Field. It's the first time that's happened for Seattle players and it's going to feel extremely weird and strange to them. Pete Carroll is that rare coach who can coach players up. He's good, but he's trumped by Bill Belichick, the best in the business. The Patriots, by the way, have covered 69 percent of the time the past 52 times they've been an underdog. Still want to lay points against Belichick? Wilson goes from facing Atlanta's weak secondary to New England's defensive backfield, which is the deepest and best in the NFL. Stephon Gilmore can completely take away DK Metcalf. As good as Wilson is, he's not going to light up the Patriots' secondary like he did the hapless Falcons. The Patriots are the best at adapting to what they have. Their receiving corps is way down this season. So Belichick and ace play-caller Josh McDaniels have gone to a ground-oriented attack revolving around Cam Newton, one of the best running quarterbacks in the league. Jamal Adams is the only Seattle defender who can match Newton's athleticism. Adams upgrades Seattle's secondary. The Seahawks, however, are just average defensively. They have been that way for the past three years. Even with Adams, the Seahawks' secondary is nowhere the caliber it was when their Legion of Boom was intact.
09-20-20	Chiefs -8.5 v. Chargers	Top	23-20	Loss	-106	86 h 27 m	Show
The Chiefs came on to capture the Super Bowl last season. They are even better this year. Their defense has been solid since the middle of last season and the offense is even scarier with rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire being an upgrade on their previous running backs. He's just one of two new players to Kansas City's formidable starting lineup. Having lineup and coaching continuity is vital this season. The Chiefs have that. The Chargers hold little home field advantage. Their offensive line is banged-up and quarterback Tyrod Taylor can't keep up with Patrick Mahomes. The Chargers have little back-door cover capability if falling behind by double-digits. The Chargers' O-line already is banged-up missing two starters last Sunday. Kansas City has the pass rushers with Chris Jones and Frank Clark to take advantage. The Chiefs put up 34 points on the Texans last Thursday. Kansas City's offense hasn't even rounded into top shape yet. The Chargers have a better defense than Houston, but losing star safety Derwin James hurts them. The Chiefs have dominated the Chargers beating them 11 of the last 12 times. Kansas City is just on a great point spread roll period going 10-1-1 ATS in its last 12 games. I'm not going to overthink this matchup. I'm just going to roll with the Chiefs.
09-20-20	Panthers v. Bucs -9		17-31	Win	100	83 h 59 m	Show
The Buccaneers have the skill position pieces to bury a terrible Carolina defense. The Panthers lost their No. 1 cornerback James Bradberry in the offseason and their projected No. 2 cornerback, Elie Apple, is on IR. Carolina also was without cornerback Donte Jackson opening week. The Panthers are left with an inexperienced, makeshift secondary that includes special teams player Troy Pride at corner. Savvy Tom Brady should pick apart this weak defensive backfield especially since he'll likely have plenty of time to throw. Carolina did not even get a quarterback hit on Derek Carr in surrendering 34 points to the Raiders last week. The Raiders hadn't scored that many points in two years. While the Panthers have the worst defense in the league, the Buccaneers have one of the best. Tampa Bay ranked No. 1 in stopping the run last season. That's extremely bad news for the Panthers, who heavily rely on running back Christian McCaffrey. Bruce Arians was not happy with the play of Brady, offensive left tackle Donovan Smith and his special teams. I expect those areas will be cleaned up in what shapes up to be a Tampa Bay kill spot.
09-20-20	Panthers v. Bucs OVER 47.5		17-31	Win	100	83 h 58 m	Show
There were 64 points scored in Carolina's 34-30 opening week loss to the Raiders. Those kinds of Overs are going to be typical in Panthers games this season. Carolina has the worst defense in the league and an up-tempo offense with the top all-purpose back in the NFL, Christian McCaffrey. That combination is going to produce a lot of Overs. Tom Brady and his left tackle Donovan Smith didn't play well opening week against the Saints on the road. Now the Buccaneers drop well down in class. Those two are in good position to atone for their poor performances. Brady and his bevy of high-caliber receivers should light up an inexperienced Panthers defense that allowed game-manager type Derek Carr to have an 8.0 YPA and failed to record not only a sack, but failed to even get a quarterback hit. The Raiders hadn't scored that many points in their last 29 games. Brady is most comfortable in the pocket. He shouldn't be bothered. Brady with time still is a high level quarterback. Carolina should contribute to this total going Over, too. The Panthers have an aggressive spread-the-ball around passing approach and a new deep threat, Robby Anderson. McCaffrey is a major plus because defenses key on him rather than quarterback Teddy Bridgewater.
09-20-20	Giants +5.5 v. Bears		13-17	Win	100	31 h 28 m	Show
The Bears haven't won their first two games of the season in seven years. They were lucky to get past the Lions opening week rallying from a 23-6 deficit. The Bears launched their comeback after the Lions' top three cornerbacks all went out of the game with injuries. I remain unimpressed with Mitchell Trubisky. He only plays well against the Lions and he stunk for three quarters. The Giants' defense has improved especially in the defensive line. The Lions bashed the Bears for 151 yards rushing. So Saquon Barkley should be in for a big game. The Bears are missing run-stuffing nose tackle Eddie Goldman, who opted out of the season, and their best pass rushers (Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn) are both banged-up. Daniel Jones set a rookie record with 18 touchdowns on the road last season. The Giants are expected to get back Golden Tate, too. The Giants have been excellent as road 'dogs covering 10 of the last 12 times in that role. The Bears have been one of the poorer point spread teams going 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games.
09-19-20	Central Florida -7.5 v. Georgia Tech	Top	49-21	Win	100	25 h 54 m	Show
Central Florida has been one of the most impressive teams in the country during the last three seasons going 35-4 while covering 64 percent of its away contests during this time frame. The Knights are proven road warriors covering 14 of their last 18 away matchups, winning 10 road games by more than a touchdown during this three-year span. The Knights start out fast, too, going 9-0 ATS during the first three games of the season the last three years. The Knights draw Georgia Tech, which is playing a non-conference game here. The Yellow Jackets opened their season upsetting fellow ACC foe, Florida State, 16-13 on the road as nearly two-touchdown 'dogs. So this is a potential flat spot and letdown spot for Georgia Tech. Not to take anything away from Georgia Tech, but Florida State did not play well. Central Florida has a much stronger offense than Georgia Tech, which still is in rebuild mode under second-year coach Geoff Collins.
09-19-20	UL-Lafayette v. Georgia State +16.5		34-31	Win	100	21 h 23 m	Show
Louisiana Lafayette cracked The Associated Press Top 25 for the first time since 1943 after upsetting Iowa State, 31-14, as 13 1/2-point road 'dogs. That's heady stuff. But it also puts the Cajuns in a tough spot this week laying more than two touchdowns on the road to Sun Belt Conference rival Georgia State. The Panthers are respectable having gone to a bowl two of the last three years under coach Shawn Elliott. They opened with a victory against Tennessee of the SEC last season on their way to a winning record. The Panthers have 16 starters back. Not to diminish the Cajuns' huge upset of the Cyclones, but they did score touchdowns on a 95-yard kickoff return and 83-yard punt return.
09-19-20	Syracuse +21 v. Pittsburgh		10-21	Win	100	11 h 45 m	Show
I don't want to overreact to these team's opening games. Pittsburgh destroyed Austin Peay while Syracuse got buried in the fourth quarter by North Carolina. But I do keep in mind that Austin Peay isn't a Division I team while North Carolina is a top-25 team. So Pittsburgh definitely is stepping up in class. I don't trust Pittsburgh coach Pat Narduzzi to cover a big margin because I'm never sold on his offenses and I'm not a fan of Pitt QB Kenny Pickett. The Panthers also have a bad record as home chalk - 8-19 ATS the past 27 times in that role. I recall last September when Pittsburgh hosted Delaware. The Panthers were 27 1/2-point favorites. It took a fourth quarter touchdown for the Panthers to eke out a 17-14 victory. I expect Syracuse to play a full four quarters, something it didn't against North Carolina. The Orangemen were hanging in through three quarters in that matchup before the game got out of hand.
09-17-20	Bengals +6 v. Browns	Top	30-35	Win	100	43 h 16 m	Show
Normally it's a huge disadvantage to be the road team for a Thursday game. But Cleveland's home edges are reduced. There won't be close to 70,000 screaming Browns fans at FirstEnergy Stadium. Instead seating capacity will be limited to 6,000. The Bengals know the Browns well being heated division rivals. Cincinnati also has coaching continuity. This is something the Browns don't have with first-year head coach Kevin Stefanski and a new offensive system. The Bengals displayed promise and hope in their 16-13 opening week loss to the Chargers. They led the Chargers in the fourth quarter. Cincinnati was done in by poor place-kicking. That game should have at least reached overtime. The Browns, though, also are dealing with kicking woes bringing in Cody Parkey to replace Austin Seibert, who the Bengals promptly picked up maybe to pick up some secrets about the Browns. Cleveland is likely to run the ball a lot at the Bengals. The Browns weren't able to pound away opening week because they fell too far behind the Ravens. Getting smashed by Baltimore, 38-6, surely does not help the Browns' fragile morale. The Bengals should be able to throw effectively on the Browns, who are without active linebacker Mack Wilson and already have a depleted secondary down three projected starters. Safety Grant Delpit is out for the season, while cornerbacks Kevin Johnson and Greedy Williams didn't play in Week 1 and aren't likely to be ready here during this short turnaround. The Browns probably are going to be forced to use special teams player Tavierre Thomas as a slot cornerback. Thomas played just three defensive snaps last season and 28 defensive snaps this past Sunday. The Bengals have a deep wide receiving group with A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, John Ross and Auden Tate. Joe Burrow is at his best operating a spread-type offense, which the Bengals are smart enough to employ. Burrow can negate Myles Garrett and Cleveland's other pass rushers by effectively throwing short passes and using top-10 running back Joe Mixon on the ground. Cincinnati has covered nine of the last 11 in this series and also is 8-3 ATS the past 11 times as a road 'dog. The Browns aren' good enough, nor trustworthy enough, to lay nearly a touchdown against a much-improved division foe.
09-13-20	Cowboys v. Rams +3	Top	17-20	Win	100	108 h 19 m	Show
The public appeal of the Cowboys and the market being down on the Rams after last season's disappointment have produced a mispriced line here. The Rams should not be a field goal home 'dog to Dallas. Although there will be no fans in the stand, the Rams have extra motivation for a 44-21 embarrassing loss they suffered to the Cowboys last season and this being the first game at their new SoFi Stadium. Jared Goff is close to an elite quarterback - when he's playing at home where he has a 31-to-11 touchdown-to-interception ratio the past two seasons compared to a 22-to-17 ratio on the road during this time span. Goff is a pocket passer. The Cowboys don't have their full complement of star pass rushers yet. Dallas' secondary is the most vulnerable part of its defense. Dallas has a high-powered attack. However, the Cowboys' offense may need time to get into gear. Mike McCarthy didn't coach last year. He had a shortened offseason and no preseason to to implement his style. The Cowboys are down two of their offensive linemen from a year ago being minus center Travis Frederick and right tackle La'el Collins. Then there is the Cowboys record as a road favorite. It's not good. Dallas lost straight-up laying points on the road last season to the Eagles, Bears, Jets and Saints, who were using Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback.
09-13-20	Bucs +3.5 v. Saints		23-34	Loss	-104	104 h 16 m	Show
No team improved themselves more in the offseason than the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay went 7-9 last season, but two of those losses occurred in overtime and three other defeats were by four points or fewer. Now the Bucs have increased their respect level by adding Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski. Brady is going to produce points with receiving stars Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to go with a trio of very good tight ends - Gronkowski, O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate. Tampa Bay's offense can trade points with Drew Brees. While Brady received all the off-season attention, the Bucs maintained their underrated defensive front of Shaq Barrett, Jason Pierre-Paul and Ndamukong Suh. The Bucs ranked No. 1 in run defense last season and Barrett led the NFL in sacks. The Saints have a losing record in season-openers during Sean Payton's 14 years. They are 1-5 during their past six opening games and 0-10 ATS during the first two weeks of the season in the past five years.
09-13-20	Cardinals +7.5 v. 49ers		24-20	Win	100	104 h 5 m	Show
There will be times to back the 49ers this season. This isn't one of them. Not with all the players the 49ers may not have. They could be the most banged-up team in the NFL right now. The Cardinals were undervalued by the oddsmaker last season when they went 9-5-2 ATS and they are at the start of this season with this large of a spread. Kyler Murray displayed great potential last year. He'll make a jump in this his second season surrounded by stronger weapons, including top-five wideout DeAndre Hopkins. Arizona also looks much improved defensively. If you discount a meaningless 49ers defensive touchdown on the final play of the game, the Cardinals lost to San Francisco by a combined seven points last season, an average loss of 3.5 points. The 49ers are weaker this season and the Cardinals are stronger. These teams are familiar with each other. It can't be overlooked either that division 'dogs have covered 81 percent on opening week since 2014, a sampling of 27 games.
09-13-20	Packers v. Vikings UNDER 45.5		43-34	Loss	-110	101 h 34 m	Show
These two teams know and hate each other. The intensity level is at its peak. It's shown on the defensive end where five of the past six meetings have gone under. This includes both games last season, which had a combined 37 and 33 points, respectively. The Vikings are in double revenge. Minnesota's defensive line usually gives the Packers problems. The Vikings have a top safety tandem in Harrison Smith and Anthony Harris. Minnesota's defensive weakness are youthful and untested cornerbacks. Defensive guru Mike Zimmer has a history of coaching up cornerbacks, though. Minnesota has a run-oriented conservative offense. Kirk Cousins is not a gunslinger. The Vikings will be staying on the ground. The Packers have switched to that style, too, under Matt LaFleur. Green Bay could be minus Billy Turner, who is its third best offensive lineman. He suffered a knee injury during practice and isn't likely to play. The Packers are thin in the offensive line and have bad receivers behind Davante Adams.
09-13-20	Colts v. Jaguars +9.5		20-27	Win	100	100 h 27 m	Show
You have to go back to 2006 to find the last time the Colts won a road opener. The Colts have had problems playing in Jacksonville's humidity losing during their past three visits by an average margin of 14.6 points. Philip Rivers is learning a new system. He's played his entire 14-year career with the Chargers. Rivers clearly is well past his prime. The Colts brought in Rivers figuring he would be an upgrade on Jacoby Brisset. They both had the exact same low passer rating, though, last season. Jacksonville's secondary is gutted, but its defensive front seven is respectable. Josh Allen is the best pass rusher on the field. The Jaguars have youthful talent on offense. These guys are hungry to make their mark. Maybe later in the season, the Jaguars might begin tanking. But not now. This is going to be very tough for the Colts to win their first Game 1 game in six years. Much tougher than the marketplace thinks.
09-12-20	UTEP +43.5 v. Texas		3-59	Loss	-110	11 h 8 m	Show
There's not much positive to say about UTEP. But the Miners have already played a game, beating Stephen F. Austin, 24-14, last Saturday. It's worth more this season to have played a game with limited off-season workouts. This is the Longhorns' opener. The Longhorns are going to treat this matchup as a glorified scrimmage. It's their lone non-Big 12 game matchup. Texas isn't going to waste much energy running up a score on UTEP, while the Miners want to keep things respectable in order to bolster their confidence and improve in-state recruiting. The Longhorns just want to get some rust off their starters and then get their reserves in so nobody important gets hurt. Texas being home actually helps the underdog with this large of a spread because the Longhorns can dress more players than they normally could if they were traveling.
09-12-20	Houston Baptist +41 v. Texas Tech		33-35	Win	100	11 h 35 m	Show
Houston Baptist was one of the teams that played last week. That's an advantage for the Huskies because Texas Tech has yet to see action. The Red Raiders have a very good QB in Alan Bowman. But he hasn't seen action in a year due to a broken collarbone. The Red Raiders are breaking in two new offensive tackles so they want to be careful that Bowman doesn't get hurt again. If Texas Tech jumps to a big early lead it would be risky and foolish to keep Bowman on the field. Houston Baptist isn't going to hold Texas Tech in check. But the Huskies can produce points behind a high-volume, spread offense that their offensive coordinator, Zach Kittley, learned during his time as an assistant coach at Texas Tech under Kliff Kingsburgy. The Red Raiders had one of the worst pass defenses last season.
09-12-20	UTSA v. Texas State -6.5		51-48	Loss	-110	7 h 32 m	Show
Both teams were awful last season. Texas State looks improved, though, in its second year under Jake Spavital. The Bobcats hung in against SMU last week, losing 31-24, as 24 1/2-point home 'dogs. Memphis transfer Brady McBride threw for 227 yards and 2 TD's for the Bobcats. Texas State's offense looked much sharper with Spavital taking over the play-calling duties. SMU has a strong offense. Yet the Bobcats were able to come up with three turnovers and forced the Mustangs to punt three times. Now Texas State drops way down in class. Not only is UTSA a bad team - ranking 117th in points and 112th in giving up points last year - but it hasn't played yet. The Roadrunners have a new coaching staff under Jeff Traylor. Don't look for Traylor to get off to a promising start. His team has had to deal with a coronavirus outbreak with a number of players ruled out for this game because of it.
09-10-20	Texans v. Chiefs OVER 54.5	Top	20-34	Loss	-103	59 h 55 m	Show
Deshaun Watson is one of the few quarterbacks who can trade points with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs' high-powered offense. The Texans put up 31 points in both meetings against the Chiefs last season. Watson is at his best when the Texans are in comeback mode and not trying to establish their feeble ground attack. They certainly figure to be trailing in this game. Kansas City has a strong pass rush, but a very inexperienced and vulnerable secondary. The Chiefs find themselves in this spot because Bashaud Breeland, their most experienced and best cornerback, is suspended for the first four games. Here's a telling quote from Chiefs general manager Brett Veach: "With Bashaud Breeland being out four weeks, we're all aware there could be some growing pains and some lumps along the way," he said about his team's secondary. The Chiefs have the best attack in football - and are healthy. They are upgraded at tailback, too, with rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire a starter. Mahomes spearheaded the Chiefs to seven straight touchdowns in Kansas City's 51-31 playoff victory against the Texans. Houston's defense has not improved this season. If anything it has gotten worse.
09-10-20	UAB +14.5 v. Miami-FL		14-31	Loss	-115	31 h 44 m	Show
I don't understand why the oddsmaker respects Miami so much in this matchup. I don't see the Hurricanes, a middle-of-the-road ACC team, as being 2-touchdowns superior to UAB, perhaps the best team in Conference USA. The Blazers have a strong defense, particularly versus the pass, and return 10 starters on offense. They have won 28 games during the past three seasons. Very important to note here, too, is UAB has played a game. The Blazers beat Central Arkansas, 45-35, last Thursday. That score was misleading considering the Blazers' domination. This is Miami's first game. The Hurricanes couldn't practice in the spring. They are switching to a spread offense featuring D'Eriq King, who transferred from Houston. King has a big name, but he's one of the more overrated players in my view. I see the Hurricanes struggling against this defense, hurt by not having enough time and practice to learn a new offense and quarterback. Miami's home field advantage is narrowed, too, because there will be limited fan capacity.
02-02-20	49ers v. Chiefs -120	Top	20-31	Win	100	318 h 27 m	Show
San Francisco has the superior defense. Kansas City has the superior quarterback. So, which way to go in this Super Bowl? The choice is simple for me: Patrick Mahomes. There's no reason to wait. I'm firing on the Chiefs because of Mahomes, the 49ers' lack of a passing attack and KC's vastly improved defense. Mahomes' numbers the past two seasons spanning 34 regular season and playoff games is mind boggling - 10,316 passing yards, an 84-to-17 touchdown-to-interception ratio and five rushing TD's. These numbers include a 3-1 postseason mark with nine TD's and no interceptions. Kansas City is averaging 37 points in four playoff games the past two seasons. Kansas City has won eight games in a row - all by seven points or more. The Chiefs' average margin of victory during their last eight games is 16.1 points. I respect San Francisco's defense especially now that it is fully healthy again. But in this day and age where rules are out-of-whack skewed to favor offenses - particularly passing offenses - a once-in-a-generation quarterback trumps a strong defense. The best quarterbacks the 49ers have seen this season were Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson. I don't include Aaron Rodgers, who had a down year and appears past his prime. In those games, the Saints produced 46 points, the Falcons scored 29 in pulling an upset and the Seahawks came within inches of sweeping the 49ers. I would take the Chiefs' offense ahead of those offenses. It's not just Mahomes versus Jimmy Garoppolo, a game-manager type who is far less crafty and commits more turnovers than Mahomes. Kansas City also has a huge wide receiving edge with speedsters Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins and Mecole Hardman. I would take Hill and Watkins over any of the 49ers' wideouts. Travis Kelce is just as good if not better than George Kittle, who is Garoppolo's major receiving weapon and security blanket. Kittle is great. But so is Kelce. No defense has been able to stop Mahomes and Co. The reason for this is because it's impossible. Mahomes is too talented, has too many weapons, gets solid pass protection and the rules are in his favor. An added bonus is Andy Reid off a bye. His record is tremendous in this spot. I don't see the 49ers keep pacing. Kansas City's defense is much improved from last year and the beginning of this season. The Chiefs held their last six regular-season foes to fewer than 12 points a game. KC's run defense would have ranked in the top-10 if based on just the last six games of the season. Just once in their last eight games have the Chiefs allowed an opposing running back to rush for more than 70 yards. They held Derrick Henry to 69 yards and a 3.6 yard average in the AFC title game. Raheem Mostert is a great success story, but he's no Derrick Henry. The Chiefs' pass rush is better, too, with Chris Jones returning from injury and veteran Terrell Suggs coming on board. Suggs is in the top 10 in all-time sacks. The worst case scenario for the Chiefs is falling behind by double-digits. They did that in both of their playoff games this season. It didn't make a difference. The Chiefs still beat the Texans and Titans by 20 and 11 points, respectively. But if the 49ers fall behind by double-digits they are dead because Garoppolo doesn't have the skill set, nor receiving weapons to come back.
01-19-20	Packers v. 49ers OVER 46.5	Top	20-37	Win	100	51 h 58 m	Show
Aaron Rodgers plays best when he has a chip on his shoulder. So he should play well here. Rodgers has taken a hit from the press for not having a Rodgers-type statistical season. All the Packers have done, though, is go 14-3. Aaron Jones has emerged as an elite all-purpose back so Rodgers hasn't had to carry all of the load. Rodgers has well above average offensive tackles and a very good center to go with a top-five wide receiver, Davonte Adams. That's enough for him to produce points against any defense whehter it's home or road. Rodgers had one of the worst games of his career in the first meeting against the 49ers this season. He won't lack motivation or the brains to make sure a repeat performance doesn't occur. Jimmy Garoppolo isn't close to being in Rodgers' class. But he doesn't have to be. The pressure is off Garoppolo because the 49ers should have no trouble running successfully on Green Bay. The Packers have permitted an average of 4.6 yards per rush during their last five games. San Francisco goes three deep at running back and can take advantage of that. The Packers lack experienced cornerbacks to prevent Garoppolo from making short yardage throws in favorable down and distance plays. Title games can sometimes get out of control if the losing team is trailing late because all stops need to be pulled out. That could be the case here.
01-11-20	Titans v. Ravens OVER 46.5	Top	28-12	Loss	-107	76 h 13 m	Show
The Ravens were the top-scoring team in the NFL averaging 33.2 points. The Titans were right there with Baltimore during the second half of the season after making the move inserting Ryan Tannehill as their starting QB leading the league in yards per play during this span. Tennessee averaged 33.4 points during its last seven regular season games. Derrick Henry came on to lead the NFL in rushing establishing himself as the best running back in the league rushing for at least 149 yards in five of his last seven games. Tannehill has underrated receiving weapons in A.J. Brown, Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith. Tannehill enjoyed a career season, but did not play well in his first playoff start. Tannehill should play better now that's he experienced the postseason facing a defense not as good as New England's. Baltimore certainly is going to get its points against a Tennessee defense that ranked 21st in yards allowed and 24th in passing yards and has a banged-up secondary. Lamar Jackson had the best pass/rush ratio of any QB in NFL history. No defense has been able to figure out Jackson and his unique dual threat ability. The Ravens have scored 30 or more points in seven of Jackson's past nine starts. Jackson heads a well-balanced Ravens attack. If this isn't enough, the Ravens also have the top and most accurate kicker in football, Justin Tucker.
01-05-20	Vikings v. Saints OVER 49	Top	26-20	Loss	-115	45 h 39 m	Show
Overlooked by Lamar Jackson and being out with a hand injury, Drew Brees hasn't been given full credit for how well he's played this season. Brees has been on top of his game since returning in Week 9 completing nearly 75 percent of his throws while putting up a 25-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Brees has a full complement of weapons headed by a now fully healthy Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas, who set the NFL's single season record for receptions this year. The Vikings' defense is down from past seasons due to poor play from their secondary. Thomas and tight end Jared Cook are set for big games especially with mobile linebacker Eric Kendricks dealing with a quad injury. The Vikings are going to do their part, too, in making this a shootout. Minnesota is much more dangerous with Dalvin Cook and Adam Thielen back in the lineup and healthy. The Saints' defense took a hit with defensive linemen Sheldon Rankins and Marcus Davenport out. The 49ers put up 48 points on the Saints four games ago. Cook is better than any 49ers running back and San Francisco can't come close to matching the Vikings' wide receiver tandem of Stefon Diggs and Thielen. Kirk Cousins had a very strong season despite his poor performance in Week 16 against the Packers. That game stands out because it was on Monday night. But Cousins had a career-high 107.4 passer rating with 26 TD passes despite sitting out last week. Cousins also has a better history when playing indoors with a passer rating 14 points higher.
01-04-20	Titans v. Patriots -4.5	Top	20-13	Loss	-110	28 h 26 m	Show
So what did the Patriots' shocking home loss to the Dolphins in Week 17 mean besides hosting a wild-card game instead of getting a bye? It means line value on New England as I consider this number too short. Look for Tom Brady to step up as the weaknesses on Tennessee's defense - vulnerable to short passes and a banged-up secondary that ranks 24th in pass defense and 27th in quarterback hit rate - suit his strengths and that of the Patriots. Brady can still pick apart defenses that are vulnerable to short passes, which the Titans are. Sony Michel is running better and Julian Edelman is healthier than he has been giving Brady his security blanket. New England has much the superior defense. The Patriots surrendered the fewest points and yards in the NFL. Their run defense has looked good, too, holding opposing running backs to 3.5 yards per carry during the last five games. Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown are Ryan Tannehill's two major weapons. The Patriots can afford to bring their safeties into the box to help on Henry because cornerback Stephon Gilmore has the talent cover Brown one-on-one. Gilmore may have been the best defensive player in the NFL this season. Tannehill is unproven in big games such as this. He has a poor record, too, versus defensive guru Bill Belichk with a 4-7 mark, 11 interceptions and a 60.1 percent completion rate. The Titans also are bucking these monster numbers: The Patriots have covered 68 percent of their last 65 home games, are 7-2 ATS in their last nine playoff games and are 48-22-1 (69 percent) following a loss.
01-03-20	Ohio v. Nevada +8	Top	30-21	Loss	-110	14 h 43 m	Show
Akron and Bowling Green were the two worst teams in the Mid-American Conference this season. Ohio blew both of them out during its last two games. If you discount those two games, though, the Bobcats went 2-8 ATS, including an 0-6 ATS mark when favored. They also failed to cover in the four games they played against other bowl teams. Nevada is undervalued here, too, because while Ohio was blowing out bad opponents the Wolf Pack fell to UNLV as a 6.5-point home favorite in their final regular season game. Nevada is better as a 'dog than favorite. The Wolf Pack defeated Purdue, San Diego State and Fresno State straight-up all as a double-digit 'dog. The Wolf Pack also knows this venue in Idaho and its higher elevation and unique blue field because they play Boise State being in the Mountain West Conference.
01-02-20	Boston College v. Cincinnati -7	Top	6-38	Win	100	30 h 48 m	Show
Boston College was the sixth-best rushing team in the nation. Most of its rushing yards, though, were provided by AJ Dillon, one of the premier running backs in college football. Dillon is turning pro so he's sitting out this game. Dillon led the ACC in rushing with 1,685 yards. That's just one of the Eagles' many problems. BC's coach, Steve Addazio, was fired at the end of the regular season and the Eagles' offensive coordinator, Mike Bajakian, left to take a job at Northwestern. The Eagles lost their starting quarterback, Anthony Brown, to a knee injury and backup QB sophomore David Bailey has been erratic. Cincinnati is far more stable. The Bearcats have a major edge on defense and a balanced offensive attack with quarterback Desmond Ridder healthy again and solid running backs MIchael Warren III and Gerrid Oaks.
12-31-19	Kansas State v. Navy OVER 52.5	Top	17-20	Loss	-110	15 h 49 m	Show
Navy has scored a minimum of 31 points in eight of its last nine games. Thanks to QB Malcom Perry, the Midshipmen led the nation in rushing. I don't see Kansas State, with a below average run defense, being able to slow down Navy's option attack. It's Navy's relentless ground attack that wears down opponents not the other way around. But Kansas State has the skill position athletes and Big 12 pedigree to take advantage of Navy's defense. Wildcats QB Skyler Thompson is a dual threat accounting for 22 TD's this season while passing for more than 4,000 yards and rushing for more than 1,000 during his career. Navy has to look out for Joshua Youngblood, too. He was the Big 12 Special Teams Player of the Year. Youngblood has brought back three kicks for TD's in the last four games.
12-29-19	49ers v. Seahawks +3.5	Top	26-21	Loss	-110	50 h 49 m	Show
Seattle is far more experienced in big prime time game such as this and owns an eight-game win streak against the 49ers. The Seahawks are banged-up defensively, but are getting some of those players back, including Jadeveon Clowney. The 49ers also have key defensive injuries namely Kwon Alexander, Dee Ford and Jaquiski Tartt. The Seahawks have won a staggering 84 percent of their prime time games under Pete Carroll, including beating the 49ers, 27-24, on the road in a Week 10 Monday night game. The Seahawks have a monster edge at quarterback in a matchup of Russell Wilson versus Jimmy Garoppolo. The Seahawks took care of their injury situation at running back by bringing back Marshawn Lynch. They also have an underrated running back in Travis Homer.
12-29-19	Raiders v. Broncos -3		15-16	Loss	-125	25 h 33 m	Show
Not that the Raiders have any realisticchance for the playoffs, which they will know for sure when the early start time games finish, but they also aren't winning this game even if their morale isn't destroyed by being eliminated. The Broncos have gotten better under first-year coach Vic Fangio and rookie QB Drew Lock, winning three of their last four. Denver has revenge for a 24-16 opening week loss to the Raiders that set a bad tone for the first half of the season. Oakland has been terrible since late November going 1-4 with losses to the Jets, Chiefs, Titans and Jaguars. They have been outscored by 80 points during this span. The weather is expected to be in the 30s, which is bad news for Derek Carr. He's 0-9 the past nine times when playing in temperatures below 50 degrees with a passer rating of 65.9 compared to 94.7 in other games. Running back Josh Jacobs, the Raiders' best skill position player, isn't expected to play either because of a shoulder injury.
12-29-19	Steelers v. Ravens +2		10-28	Win	100	25 h 32 m	Show
Baltimore is going to be resting starters, including Lamar Jackson. But the Ravens still are going to give a strong effort against their long-time hated division rival. Baltimore is riding an 11-game win streak on pace to become the first team in NFL history to average 200 yards both rushing and passing. The Steelers don't have the offense to beat this team on the road. Not with Duck Hodges behind center and missing James Conner and center Maurkice Pouncey. Ravens backup QB, Robert Griffin III, is a much better player than the extremely limited Hodges. Pittsburgh has managed just eight touchdowns on offense during its last seven games. That won't get the job done against a well-coached prideful Ravens team that would rather not enter the playoffs with a loss especially at home where they haven't lost since September.
12-29-19	Packers v. Lions +13.5		23-20	Win	100	21 h 6 m	Show
Green Bay is traveling on a short week after a monster road win on Monday against the Vikings. The Packers simply need to win here not cover a margin. That's what happened in the first meeting when Green Bay was lucky to win at home. The Packers prevailed, 23-22, on a field goal at the gun. Green Bay was the recipient of several gift calls from the officials that aided them in that victory. The Lions will be motivated by revenge and a chance to close the season on a positive note. Having Kerryon Johnson back, their top runner, takes some of the load off David Blough. Green Bay isn't nearly as dominant as its 12-3 record may indicate ranking below average in both yards gained and yards allowed.
12-29-19	Bears v. Vikings OVER 35.5		21-19	Win	100	21 h 5 m	Show
This total is too low given the Bears want to boost up Mitch Trubisky for the off-season and the game is being played indoors on carpet. The Vikings will be playing second-stringers. That cuts both ways. The Vikings are going to be much weaker defensively without their star defensive players. Trubisky doesn't lack weapons with Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller, David Montgomery and Tarik Cohen. There is no reason for the Bears to be conservative. They should do all they can to pump up Trubisky's confidence. The Vikings catch a break with Bears run-stuffing defensive tackle Akiem Hicks ruled out.
12-28-19	Memphis v. Penn State UNDER 60.5	Top	39-53	Loss	-110	71 h 4 m	Show
Memphis has a high-powered offense with excellent skill position players. The Tigers, however, aren't great in pass protection and haven't faced a defense the caliber of Penn State. The Nittany Lions rank seventh in scoring defense giving up 14.1 points a game and 11th in yards per play at 4.8. Penn State played good competition, too, taking on eight bowl teams. They held those opponents to 18.6 points a game. Ohio State could manage just 28 points against Penn State. The Buckeyes are the No. 1 scoring team in the nation averaging 48.7 points. Penn State isn't as strong offensively. The Nittany Lions have flashed at times, but their offense is far from dominant. Memphis held six foes to fewer than 350 yards.
12-27-19	Washington State +3 v. Air Force	Top	21-31	Loss	-110	82 h 5 m	Show
You couldn't ask for a bigger contrast in styles with Air Force a top rushing team and Washington State a great passing team. The Cougars led the nation in passing with Anthony Gordon putting up better numbers than any QB, including Joe Burrow. Gordon has a slew of talented wideouts. Air Force is better versus the run than pass. The Falcons are used to running teams in the Mountain West Conference. Their pass defensive numbers look better than what their talent level is since they played Colgate along with heavily ground-oriented Army and Navy. Air Force doesn't have the depth in the secondary to hang with Washington State. The Falcons also lack the necessary strong pass rush. If you discount games against Colorado State and Hawaii, the Falcons only had 13 sacks. Washington State is better stopping the run than the pass. The Cougars have covered 15 of the last 22 times they've been underdogs.
12-27-19	North Carolina v. Temple +5		55-13	Loss	-110	72 h 54 m	Show
I'm far from sold on North Carolina as a favorite here. The Tar Heels struggled to get to six wins to become bowl eligible. They fattened their stats by beating Mercer, 56-7, and defeated only one bowl team - and that was unimpressive Miami. If you discount the Mercer matchup, nine of North Carolina's 11 games were decided by a touchdown or less. Temple checks a lot of boxes for being a feisty bowl 'dog. The Owls should win the battle of the trenches. They have a strong pass rush and North Carolina has a leaky offensive line that permitted more than three sacks per game. Temple went 7-1 when sacking the quarterback at least three times with the lone loss coming to Cincinnati, 15-13, on the road. Both teams have good passing attacks. But Temple has the eighth-most efficient pass defense in the country. The Owls have experience with high-powered passing attacks having played Central Florida and SMU. The Owls certainly have backdoor capabilities if needed with QB Anthony Russo and WR's Jadan Blue and Branden Mack.
12-26-19	Pittsburgh -10.5 v. Eastern Michigan	Top	34-30	Loss	-110	80 h 51 m	Show
Pittsburgh isn't fancy. The Panthers are meat and potatoes. But they should destroy Eastern Michigan being a Power Five team dropping way down in class to play a Mid-American Conference team in the Quick Lane Bowl. The bar is not set high here for the Panthers. Eastern Michigan can't stop the run and is going to have problems keeping the Pitt defense off quarterback Mike Glass III. The Panthers are 5-1 when rushing for more than 100 yards. The Eagles have yielded at least 230 yards on the ground in four of their last five games. Led by Jaylen Twyman, who has 10 1/2 sacks, the Panthers have recorded 49 sacks and 98 tackles for losses. So Pittsburgh should control the trenches. The key is motivation. Will the Panthers get up for this opponent? They certainly should. Panthers coach Pat Narduzzi is 0-3 in bowls games at Pittsburgh. The Panthers were nipped, 14-13, by Stanford in their bowl game last year. The Panthers won't have a better chance than this to get Narduzzi his first bowl win.
12-22-19	Cardinals +10.5 v. Seahawks		27-13	Win	100	66 h 0 m	Show
Should be a great game when the 11-3 49ers meet the 11-3 Seahawks to decide the NFC West Division. Oh wait, that's next week. Seattle can't help but be looking ahead to that crucial matchup. Problem is the Seahawks aren't good enough to cover this high of a number especially in a look-ahead spot. The Seahawks being eight games above .500 doesn't match their statistics and point differential. They have outscored their opponents by just 26 points on the season. Seattle only has 24 sacks, which ranks among the bottom-three. The Seahawks also have half a dozen injuries to key defenders, including underrated free safety Quandre Diggs. He carries a doubtful tag while Seattle's other banged-up defensive players are questionable. The Cardinals are adept offensively. They have scored 25 or more points in seven of their last 10 games. Kyler Murray is a poor man's Russell Wilson. His weapons match the Seahawks especially with Josh Gordon back on suspension and likely done in the NFL, which was a distraction for Seattle this week. The Seahawks have actually played better on the road. They have covered only twice during their last seven home games often overpriced like they are here. Arizona is 8-4-1 ATS as an underdog this season.
12-22-19	Cowboys v. Eagles UNDER 46.5	Top	9-17	Win	100	66 h 2 m	Show
My first look at late season division matchups such as this one is Under the total. This one fits. Statistically, Dallas is strong on both sides of the ball. But the Cowboys are far better coached on the defensive end. This isn't a rip so much on offensive coordinator Kellen Moore as it is head coach Jason Garrett. Dak Prescott has a shoulder injury to his throwing arm. The severity of the injury has come into question. If the injury is serious enough to limit Prescott - and I do believe it will impact him - then this should be a dead nuts Under game. Even if Prescott can throw downfield, I still like the Under. Amari Cooper isn't right either. Dallas is a running team moreso now that Prescott isn't 100 percent. The Cowboys are going to ride Ezekiel Elliott in this NFC East Division showdown. Philadelphia's strength is its run defense. Only two teams allow fewer rushing yards per game than the Eagles. The Cowboys rank seventh in total defense and eighth against the pass. They give up fewer than 21 points on the season. Because of multiple wide receiver injuries and no speed at the flanks, Carson Wentz is reduced to throwing short passes to his tight ends and dump off passes to his running backs. If Wentz hasn't regressed this year he sure hasn't shown improvement. Eagles home games have averaged just 39.4 combined points. This one should fall in that range, too.
12-22-19	Panthers v. Colts -6.5		6-38	Win	100	63 h 34 m	Show
Injuries and close decisions that didn't go their way ruined the Colts' season. But Indy is a well-coached solid team that almost always can be counted on to provide a strong effort under Frank Reich. The Colts are committed to finishing their year strong in an effort to reach .500. Not so with the rudderless Panthers. They are set adrift with Ron Rivera gone after nine seasons and playing the worst run defense in the league allowing an average of 6.3 yards per rush during their last three games. Carolina has surrendered at least three touchdowns in 10 consecutive games. That's the longest streak in the NFL. But what clinches this fade on the Panthers is Carolina's decision to start rookie Will Grier at QB. Grier was brutal during preseason with a 2-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and taking seven sacks. He couldn't beat out Kyle Allen to back up Cam Newton and then couldn't replace Allen as Allen kept getting worse and worse. Now the Panthers are in what-the-heck mode turning to Grier for this road start. I would be highly surprised if this turned out to be a positive experience for him and Carolina.