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Football Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
12-21-19	Central Michigan v. San Diego State -3.5	Top	11-48	Win	100	64 h 48 m	Show
San Diego State's defense is going to trump Central Michigan's offense. The Aztec's finished in the top five in the nation in run defense, scoring defense and total defense. SDS held foes to 12.8 points a game. No team reached 24 points on the Aztecs, who also held all but three of their 12 opponents to 85 or fewer rushing yards. Central Michigan was stopped by Miami of Ohio, 26-21, in the MAC title game. San Diego State is a much better defensive team than Miami of Ohio. The Chippewas are 0-5 when rushing for fewer than 135 yards. Wyoming was the lone team to rush for more than 135 yards versus SDS. The Aztecs have enough offense to cover this number. The key for them is they don't turn the ball over averaging just 0.6 per game. San Diego State shouldn't lack motivation either coming off an embarrassing 27-0 loss to Ohio, another MAC team, in last year's Frisco Bowl. SDS also lost two years ago to Army in the Armed Forces Bowl so its seniors should have plenty of incentive. The venue - Albuquerque, N.M. - favors SDS, too. Not only is it closer for SDS fans to travel to but it's in high altitude and the Aztecs have experience playing there having met New Mexico two seasons ago.
12-20-19	Buffalo -4.5 v. Charlotte	Top	31-9	Win	100	263 h 29 m	Show
Buffalo holds key edges in the trenches both in running the ball and stopping the run. The Bulls' Jaret Patterson is one of the best backs in the nation. He rushed for 1,626 yards and accounted for 18 TD's. Charlotte has a good RB, too, in Benny LeMay. The Bulls, though, rank fourth in the nation in stopping the run, while the 49ers are 99th in run defense. Charlotte has failed to cover five of the last seven times it has faced a winning opponent. The 49ers won seven games to qualify for their first bowl game. But six of those victories were achieved against weak team and the other win came against Marshall when the Thundering Herd were in a flat spot. The 49ers are 5-13 ATS the past 18 times playing a team outside of Conference USA. Buffalo played in a bowl game last season. So the Bulls have bowl experience. Charlotte doesn't, which is a huge negative.
12-15-19	Browns v. Cardinals OVER 48.5		24-38	Win	100	52 h 14 m	Show
The Browns are not well coached. But they do have weapons and can be trusted to put up points when playing bad defenses. You won't find too many NFL defenses as bad as Arizona's. The Cardinals give up the most yards per game and also rank last in pass defense. They have surrendered 21 or more points in every game. Baker Mayfield should do well versus this low caliber of defense. So should Nick Chubb, who leads the NFL in rushing. Arizona should contribute its share of points. The Cardinals have three good running backs. The Browns rank 26th in run defense. As a side note, there is bad blood between Mayfield and Cardinals head man Kliff Kingsbury stemming from when Mayfield played for Kingsbury at Texas Tech before he transferred to Oklahoma. So both teams will be looking to run up a score with no letdowns.
12-15-19	Texans v. Titans OVER 51		24-21	Loss	-109	49 h 30 m	Show
Go to the head of the line if you knew Tennessee is the hottest Over team in the NFL. The Over has cashed in each of the Titans' last seven games. Look for another high-scoring matchup with the Titans hosting the Texans. DeShaun Watson is an elite quarterback spearheading a top-10 offense. Watson will be facing a Titans secondary that is dealing with a cluster injury problem. The Titans could be minus three of their top four cornerbacks along with safety Kenny Vaccaro, who is in concussion protocol. Sparked by Ryan Tannehill, who is playing his finest ball, the Titans are averaging 31.4 points during the last eight weeks. That's the second-highest point-per-game ranking in the NFL during this span. Houston has allowed opponents to score on 52.8 percent of their possessions during its last four games, which is the highest rate in the league. Tannehill's strong play has made Derrick Henry even more of a running threat. Henry has rushed for triple-digit yards each of the last four games The Texans' pass rush and rush defense has struggled since JJ Watt was lost for the season.
12-15-19	Patriots -9 v. Bengals	Top	34-13	Win	100	73 h 26 m	Show
Can the Patriots be beaten for a third straight game? Can the Bengals pull this off? You have to be kidding. Go back to 2002. That's the last time the Patriots lost three in a row. The Patriots have covered 71 percent of the time off a loss during the last 17 years under Bill Belichick going 41-17. The Patriots' last two losses have come to the Texans and Chiefs. The Bengals have the worst record in the NFL. New England has feasted on bottom-feeders posting seven victories by at least 14 points. Cincinnati is the second-lowest scoring team in the NFL averaging 15.2 points a game. Not once have the Bengals scored more than 23 points in a game. New England has the top defense in the NFL giving up the fewest yards, points and yards per play. Cincinnati also ranks second-to-last in total defense, last in rushing defense and gives up the most yards per play. Tom Brady is far more effective when his ground attack is working. New England isn't going to lack motivation either. Not only do the Patriots need to win to maintain a high playoff seeding, but there is bad blood after the the Bengals brought up a new "Spygate" mention to the attention of the NFL.
12-08-19	Seahawks v. Rams +1		12-28	Win	100	98 h 3 m	Show
Under the right circumstances, Jared Goff is a good quarterback. This is the right spot for Goff. He's home in California and the Seahawks don't generate a strong pass rush. Goff has the necessary weapons to light up the Seahawks' mediocre secondary with four quality wide receivers and Todd Gurley. The Seahawks are traveling on a short week after getting past the Vikings at home this past Monday. The Rams have covered five of the last seven times they've hosted Seattle.
12-08-19	Steelers v. Cardinals UNDER 43.5	Top	23-17	Win	100	94 h 19 m	Show
Pittsburgh has one of the best defenses in the NFL. Steelers coach Mike Tomlin realizes that. Because of skill position injuries to Ben Roethlisberger, James Conner and JuJu Smith-Schuster, the Steelers have a below offense. So Tomlin just doesn't want his quarterback to muck things up for the defense. That's why he made the switch to game manager, third-stringer Delvin Hodges. The Steelers are not a good road team. They've scored the second-fewest points on the road in the league. The Under is a perfect 10-0 during the Steelers' last 10 road matchups. So expect a very conservative game from them. Kyler Murray could be hitting the rookie wall. He realies heavily on his mobility. That mobility is lessened, though, because he has a hamstring injury. The Cardinals haven't been helped by David Johnson's ineffectiveness either.
12-08-19	Colts +3 v. Bucs		35-38	Push	0	91 h 52 m	Show
Better team getting points. That's it in a nutshell. The Colts also are getting back their best running back, Marlon Mack, and perhaps their top wide receiver, T.Y. Hilton. The Buccaneers are error-prone offensively with Jameis Winston remaining a model of inconsistency.The Bucs also rank 30th in scoring defense giving up 28.8 points a game. The Colts are much more solid in the trenches, too. Indy is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine road games. Tampa Bay is 2-5-1 ATS the past eight times as a favorite, including 1-3 ATS this season
12-08-19	Dolphins v. Jets -5		21-22	Loss	-105	91 h 49 m	Show
The warm-weather Dolphins enter New York's December weather fat and happy having just upset the Eagles at home. This is a huge revenge game for Adam Gase against his former team. The Jets got caught peeking ahead to this matchup losing to the previously winless Bengals last Sunday. Expect a much more focused effort by the Jets in this game. Before getting upset by the Bengals, the Jets had reeled off three consecutive victories scoring 34 points in each of those games. If they hadn't lost to the Bengals, the line would be much higher. Now it's less than a touchdown. The Jets have the top run defense in the league. Their offense has much been better skill position people than Miami and their offensive line has showed improvement during the second half of the season.
12-08-19	Bengals +10 v. Browns		19-27	Win	100	91 h 46 m	Show
Cincinnati is bad. Cleveland is dysfunctional. Bottom line is this is too many points in a division rivalry game, especially considering the Browns are without their top defensive player, elite pass rusher Myles Garrett, and Baker Mayfield may not be 100 percent due to a sore throwing hand. The Bengals are consistently undervalued on the road. They are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 away contests. Cincinnati's confidence gained a huge boost with a victory against the Jets last Sunday. The Bengals can be counted on to give a full effort and their offense is upgraded with Andy Dalton back under center and speedster John Ross off the injured list.
12-07-19	Georgia +7.5 v. LSU	Top	10-37	Loss	-110	23 h 10 m	Show
I don't see where LSU is a touchdown better than Georgia at a neutral site. George has the better defense and is more experienced in big game neutral site games than LSU. The Bulldogs are 8-1 ATS in their last nine neutral site games. The Bulldogs rank No. 2 in the country in scoring defense giving up 10.4 points a game. They haven't surrendered more than 20 points all season! As good as LSU is offensively, Georgia has the better rushing numbers and gives up 2.7 yards per run, while the Tigers yield 3.8 yards a run. When it comes to passing, Georgia allows 9.6 yards per completion compared to LSU's 13 yards per completion. Georgia needs a victory here to reach the College Football Playoffs, while LSU already is in. So more is at stake for the Bulldogs.
12-07-19	Baylor v. Oklahoma -8.5		23-30	Loss	-110	19 h 18 m	Show
Oklahoma was on the road, playing flat and without its best wide receiver, CeeDee Lamb. This was three weeks ago against upstart Baylor in Waco, Texas. Baylor jumped out to a 25-point lead against the Sooners. Yet Oklahoma still managed to pull out a 34-31 victory. Now the teams meet at a neutral site and Lamb is back healthy. The Sooners have loads of big-game, neutral site title game experience. Baylor doesn't I don't see the Bears being able to hang within single digits of the Sooners especially coming off that recent defeat to Oklahoma. I like Baylor QB Charlie Brewer. But he's not in the class of the Sooners' Jalen Hurts, who could be the best dual threat QB in college with his passing and rushing ability.
12-06-19	Oregon v. Utah UNDER 50	Top	37-15	Loss	-110	102 h 50 m	Show
Oregon and Utah each have star skill position players. The Ducks with QB Justin Herbert. The Utes with running back Zack Moss. But the key to the success of these two teams is defense. Oregon surrenders fewer than 16 points a game. Utah is even more stingy yielding 11.2 points, third-best in the nation. It's not just two outstanding defenses that make the Under a good play here. Utah is heavily run-oriented, playing slower than any team in the nation as far as milking clock. The other factor is weather. This game is being played at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara. This is a grass field not known for providing good footing. The forecast is for rain and wind.
12-05-19	Cowboys -2.5 v. Bears	Top	24-31	Loss	-130	26 h 17 m	Show
The Cowboys are the more well-rounded team with far better skill position talent than the Bears. Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot rate major edges on Mitch Trubisky and David Montgomery. The Bears haven't recovered from their London loss to the Raiders. They are 3-5 in their last eight games with their lone victories during this span coming against the Giants and Lions twice. Those teams have a combined record of 5-18. Trubisky has only played well against the Lions. He's been a stiff against every other opponent. Chicago's defense is down from last season and its offense has been hijacked by Trubisky's lack of progress. Chicago's run defense is prey to Elliott likley missing run-stuffing Akiem Hicks and linebacker Danny Trevathan. The Cowboys are the more motivated team. Dallas is that rare team that rates high in both offensive and defensive yards. The Cowboys average the most yards per game in the NFL and they surrender the eighth-fewest yards.
12-01-19	Patriots -3 v. Texans	Top	22-28	Loss	-110	127 h 56 m	Show
The Patriots' defense is putting up numbers not seen since the 2000 Ravens. I don't see the Texans, with their weak offensive line, lack of a ground attack and poor coaching, being able to solve New England's defense. New England is getting better offensively as more offensive linemen and wide receivers get healthy. The Texans have a slow, banged-up secondary and their pass rush took a massive hit with J.J. Watt sidelined for the season. Bill Belichick has had Bill O'Brien's number. The Patriots are 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS versus the Texans since 2015. Belichick won't be adverse to running up a score, too. There is bad blood between these two teams after the Patriots filed tampering charges after the Texans tried to lure New England's director of player personnel, Nick Caserio, to be their general manager.
12-01-19	Chargers -145 v. Broncos		20-23	Loss	-145	122 h 12 m	Show
The Chargers are not at the level they were last season. But they still are a level higher than Denver. The Chargers' record shows 4-7, but they have outscored their opponents on the season. The Broncos, by comparison, have a minus 42 scoring differential. LA has surrounded Philip Rivers with an excellent cast of skill position weapons. The Broncos can't match that firepower. They have serious QB problems. The Chargers' defense gets back star safety Derwin James this week. He had been out the entire season. In their last game, the Chargers held Patrick Mahomes under six yards a throw, the lowest of his career. The Chargers are off their bye facing a must-win spot here. The Broncos are a demoralized bunch with chemistry issues surrounding first-year head man Vic Fangio.
12-01-19	Jets v. Bengals +4		6-22	Win	100	120 h 7 m	Show
The Dolphins scored their first win against the Jets. The winless Bengals can do the same. Cincinnati is much better at QB with Andy Dalton back in the starting role. Left tackle Cordy Glenn is back, too, for Cincinnati to shore up the offensive line. It's an added bonus if A.J. Green finally is ready to make his season debut. The Bengals haven't shown any quit holding the Steelers and Raiders to a combined 33 points the past two weeks, covering both games. Their morale should be up, too, with Dalton back under center. The Jets are in a flat spot traveling after beating up Oakland at home last Sunday. The Jets have won three straight - all against weak opponents in the Giants, Redskins and Raiders with two of those victories coming at home. New York is 1-4 on the road with its lone victory being against the Redskins. The Jets have been outscored by 63 points in their away defeats.
12-01-19	Titans v. Colts -135		31-17	Loss	-135	118 h 10 m	Show
I like the Colts on extra rest off a loss. They catch the Titans fat and happy. Tennessee just posted home victories against the Jaguars and Chiefs. Now the Titans go on the road for the first time in four weeks. They lost their past two road games - 30-20 to the Panthers and 16-0 to the Broncos. The Colts are better than both of those teams. Indy has dominated the Titans at home going 10-1 SU, 9-1-1 ATS the past 11 times. The Colts also have covered 11 of the last 12 times when meeting an above .500 foe. Tennessee has a key below-the-radar injury with cornerback Malcolm Butler out. LeShaun Sims is Butler's replacement and that's a huge downgrade. T.Y. Hilton can exploit that.
12-01-19	Packers v. Giants OVER 45	Top	31-13	Loss	-111	118 h 22 m	Show
Look for a big bounce back from the Packers offense after they played terrible against the 49ers on national television this past Sunday night. The 49ers have an upper level defense. The Giants have a porous stop unit surrendering the fourth-most points in the NFL and ranking 27th in yards given up. Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams and Aaron Jones are all elite talents. The Giants have an elite running back, Saquan Barkley. He can hurt a weak Packers run defense. Green Bay's defense has been exposed when it hasn't been getting takeaways like early in the season. There shouldn't be any weather problems as the forecast is for temperatures in the high 30's with little wind.
11-30-19	Arizona v. Arizona State OVER 59.5	Top	14-24	Loss	-108	32 h 17 m	Show
Arizona State beat Arizona, 41-40, last year. Expect a similar high-scoring game this season between the two teams. Arizona has a much better offense than it showed in last week's 35-7 loss to seventh-ranked Utah. The Wildcats have scored at least 31 points in five of their games. J.J. Taylor is one of the better RB's in the Pac-12. Arizona State freshman QB Jayden Daniels has gotten better as the season has progressed. Daniels threw for a season-high 408 yards and three TD's in the Sun Devils' 31-28 upset of Oregon last Saturday. The Sun Devils had 535 yards of total offense against an Oregon defense that is far better than Arizona's. The Wildcats have the worst scoring defense in the conference giving up 36.8 points a game. They also are last in the league in total defense and run defense.
11-30-19	Navy v. Houston OVER 58		56-41	Win	100	31 h 11 m	Show
Navy is the No. 1 rushing team in the nation thanks to QB Malcom Perry, who has rushed for 1,354 yards and scored 18 rushing TD's. Houston has a weak defense giving up 32 points a game and ranking 115th in total defense. Navy's relentless ground attack should be even better at this venue on a turf field. Houston does possess skill position weapons. So the Cougars should contribute their fair share of points toward an Over.
11-30-19	Southern Miss v. Florida Atlantic OVER 54	Top	17-34	Loss	-109	113 h 29 m	Show
These are two passing teams who should have a lot of success attacking weak secondaries. Southern Mississippi ranks 18th in the nation in passing averaging nearly 300 yards per game. Golden Eagles QB Jack Abraham is highly accurate completing nearly 68 percent of his throws. Florida Atlantic is 93rd in pass defense. Florida Atlantic has a high-powered attack that ranks 29th in scoring and 35th in yards. The Owls are very consistent. They average 34 points in their last 10 games and have produced at least 31 points in eight of their last nine games. The Owls have one of the best catching tight ends in the country in Harrison Bryant.
11-30-19	UNLV v. Nevada -7	Top	33-30	Loss	-110	27 h 43 m	Show
Nevada Reno is the superior team, is home and in strong revenge mode after blowing a 23-0 lead to UNLV last season in losing, 34-29, in this annual rivalry matchup. The Wolf Pack eased up in that game and it cost them. That won't be the case this season. Nevada coach Jay Norvell has done everything to fire up his team, including bringing in former Nevada coach Chris Ault to speak to the team. The Wolf Pack should enter this matchup with a lot of confidence having just upset San Diego State and Fresno State both on the road during their past two games. UNLV, by contrast, lost by 29 points at Fresno State and lost by three points to San Diego State at home. UNLV is off an emotional victory against San Jose State. That was the final game played at Sam Boyd Stadium and the Rebels were fired-up for it. Now reality sinks in. The Rebels aren't going to a bowl game for a fifth straight year and coach Tony Sanchez has been fired.
11-30-19	Indiana v. Purdue UNDER 55		44-41	Loss	-109	97 h 17 m	Show
Indiana has an underrated defense. The Hooisers can't stop high-powered offenses, but they are tough versus weak attacks holding Eastern Illinois, Connecticut, Rutgers and Northwestern to a combined six points! Purdue's offense has been ruined because of multiple QB injuries and an injury to Rondale Moore, who I ranked as the top wide receiver in the country. The Boilermakers are terrible on the ground ranking 128th, averaging fewer than 75 rushing yards per game. The Boilermakers have been respectable on defense versus middle-to-lower Big Ten foes. Discounting last week's game against Wisconsin, Purdue had given up an average of 22.6 points in its last five Big Ten games. There are two other key factors that favor an Under. The weather forecast is calling for a 90 percent chance of rain with wind in the 13-15 mph range. That's especially bothersome to Indiana, which is a passing team. Note the teams are playing on a grass field, too, which is a plus for the Under. Also this is a rivalry matchup so defensive intensity should be up.
11-29-19	Iowa v. Nebraska UNDER 45		27-24	Loss	-108	20 h 10 m	Show
The marketplace has knocked this total down a little, but not enough. There is still value going Under given the teams and conditions. Iowa surrenders the fifth-fewest points in the nation at 12.2 per game. The Hawkeyes have held eight of their 11 opponents to season-low point totals. The Hawkeyes, though, lack a dynamic offense. They rank 102nd in scoring at 23.5 points. So it's not a shock the Under is 8-1-1 in Iowa's past 10 games. Nebraska doesn't make many big plays either. The Cornhuskers are 78th in scoring at 28.4 points. This is a rivalry matchup. The teams play for the Heros Trophy so intensity should be up. Another key factor for the Under is weather. The forecast is for rain and 15 mph wind.
11-28-19	Saints -6.5 v. Falcons	Top	26-18	Win	100	23 h 32 m	Show
The Saints have a legitimate claim to being the best team in the NFC. The Falcons are one of the worst. New Orleans has been great against the spread, too, covering seven of its last nine. One of those non-covers was an embarrassing straight-up home loss to Atlanta from three weeks ago. The Saints were two-touchdown favorites in that game. Now they are just a touchdown favorite. Is the Falcons' home field advantage worth that much? Of course not. The Saints won't have the starting left side of their offensive line with Terron Armstead and Andrus Peat out. But that didn't matter last week when Brees was sacked just twice in 41 dropbacks against the Panthers, who have a stronger pass rush than the Falcons. Brees has a very quick release and tremendous weapons. The Falcons have no answer for Michael Thomas, who is on a record-setting receiving pace. Matt Ryan is dealing with a worse offensive line and is down weapons with Mohamed Sanu traded, Austin Hooper out and backup running back Ito Smith also sidelined. The Falcons probably get back Devonta Freeman, but he's had a disappointing season. Ryan still could be dealing with a sore ankle. He's completed just 57.6 percent of his throws for 6.6 yards per attempt with a three-to-five touchdown-to-turnover ratio during his last four games.
11-28-19	Bills v. Cowboys -6.5		26-15	Loss	-109	51 h 23 m	Show
The visiting team has a huge disadvantage playing on Thursday night especially this late in the season. The Cowboys are the better team and given the situational circumstances, I see Dallas winning by more than a touchdown. Don't be fooled by Buffalo's 8-3 record. It's bogus. The Bills have played opponents whose combined record is 19-53. They haven't faced an offense the caliber of Dallas. The Bills rank third versus the pass, but are just average versus the run. That makes them vulnerable to Ezekiel Elliott. He should be in line for a big game, which in turn would make Dak Prescott very effective picking his spots. Prescott has three quality wideouts plus Elliott out of the backfield catching passes. Buffalo lacks explosiveness on offense to keep up. The Cowboys rank in the top-seven in total defense and scoring defense. They are extremely well-coached on the defensive side of the ball. I wouldn't be surprised to see Josh Allen make a lot of mistakes in this matchup.
11-28-19	Bears -2.5 v. Lions	Top	24-20	Win	100	57 h 14 m	Show
The Bears have been a major disappointment this season. But the Lions are in worse shape. Detroit has dropped four in a row. The teams just met three weeks ago and Chicago won, 20-13. The Lions didn't have Matthew Stafford in that game and they won't have him Thursday. The Lions also aren't going to have second-stringer Jeff Driskel either. Driskel hurt his hamstring in the Lions' loss to the Redskins this past Sunday. So the Lions are forced to turn to rookie David Blough. He's never taken an NFL snap. Hopefully, you locked into this game early in the week like I did in anticipation of upward line movement. Even if you didn't, though, this is a kill spot for the Bears. Their defense should overwhelm the overmatched Blough. Chicago's defense ranks fourth in fewest points allowed and in fewest yards allowed. The Lions' defense, by contrast, ranks 29th in total yards and 26th in scoring defense. The Bears surrender 81 fewer yards per game than the Lions and nine fewer points a game. The Bears' biggest problem is Mitchell Trubisky. He plays well, though, against the Lions. Trubisky completed 16 of 23 passes for 173 yards and three touchdowns in the earlier victory against the Lions. Trubisky faced the Lions once last season and passed for 355 yards and three touchdowns in a 34-22 win.
11-26-19	Western Michigan v. Northern Illinois UNDER 52	Top	14-17	Win	100	26 h 53 m	Show
Weather and a bad Northern Illinois offense quarterbacked by an ineffective backup are the major reasons for playing Under in this Mid-American Conference matchup. Rain and 14-20 mph winds are in the forecast. Northern Illinois starting QB Ross Bowers is out due to a concussion. Marcus Childers is his replacement. He's not very good. Childers threw for fewer than 100 yards last week and was picked off three times. The Huskies will be running the ball a lot here. They are averaging only 19.3 points in their last three games. Western Michigan has a lot of pressure. A victory puts the Broncos into the MAC title game as the West Division winner. The Broncos have a good runner, LeVante Bellamy. So look for the Broncos to keep things conservative on the road running Bellamy a lot. There is no need for them to open up their attack and take unnecessary chances, which is good for the Under.
11-25-19	Ravens v. Rams +4	Top	45-6	Loss	-115	10 h 14 m	Show
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are a hot commodity. The Rams are struggling to make the playoffs at 6-4. The combination makes the Rams a good value play. LA has the defense, coaching smarts and offense to win this game straight-up. Oh, yes, the situation is perfect for them, too. Jared Goff is a quarterback you don't want to touch on the road especially in cold weather. But he and the Rams offense are a different animal at home especially against a defense that doesn't apply that much quarterback heat. Goff has all his receiving weapons back, too, with deep threat Brandin Cooks expected to play. The Rams have four quality wideouts plus Todd Gurley in the backfield. The Rams defense is strong with Jalen Ramsey shoring up the secondary and Aaron Donald having another dominating season in the trenches. Wade Phillips is in the argument for being the top defensive coordinator in the NFL. This is a unit that can control Jackson.
11-24-19	Dolphins v. Browns OVER 44.5		24-41	Win	100	92 h 8 m	Show
The Browns have much to prove after last week's scrum against the Steelers. Baker Mayfield, Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry, Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Those are very good weapons and the Browns will turn them loose against a very bad Miami defense that just surrendered 37 points at home to the punchless Bills. Cleveland could very well run up a huge score in an effort to prop up their disappointed home fan base. I see the Dolphins contributing to this total going Over, too. The Browns almost have a JV defense minus suspended Myles Garrett and Larry Ogunjobi along with injured Morgan Burnett. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a good QB for an Over because he isn't afraid to throw downfield and is far more live than most QB's to throw a pick-six.
11-24-19	Steelers v. Bengals +7		16-10	Win	100	92 h 7 m	Show
No, I don't like being on the Bengals. But laying this many points on the road with the punchless Steelers is much worse. Pittsburgh has a strong defense, playoff-caliber. But the Steelers aren't going to reach the postseason because Mason Rudolph is a stiff. Rudolph needs weapons and he's not going to have them here. Center Maurkice Pouncey is suspended. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt's No. 1 wideout by far, is injured and won't play. I doubt James Conner, the Steelers' No. 1 runner, plays either. He missed last week and remains banged-up. Even when they had Ben Roethlisberger healthy, the Steelers still were bad on the road. They are 1-6 in their last seven road games, including 1-3 this season. The Steelers have the lowest road scoring percentage of possessions in the NFL. The Bengals should play hard trying to get their first win, being home and facing a much hated division opponent. So taking this many points looms large especially given the low total in this matchup.
11-24-19	Giants v. Bears OVER 40		14-19	Loss	-109	92 h 6 m	Show
The Giants have strong weapons surrounding Daniel Jones headed by Saquon Barkley and Golden Tate. The Bears' defense is way down from last season. Khalil Mack is having a horrendous season. The Bears' offense has been terrible. But now Chicago is home to a Giants defense that allows the third-most points in the NFL and ranks 27th in total yards and 25th in pass defense. New York is surrendering an average of 32 points in its last six games. The Giants defense is so bad it can make Mitchell Trubisky look good. This is the lowest Giants' total of the season by far. Only twice have there been fewer than 40 points scored in a Giants game. The forecast is for a clear day with little wind and temperatures in the high 30's.
11-24-19	Seahawks v. Eagles -110		17-9	Loss	-110	47 h 41 m	Show
The records show Seattle to be 8-2 and Philadelphia 5-5. The oddsmaker isn't buying that opening the Eagles as a favorite. I don't buy it either. I don't believe the Seahawks are that good. Russell Wilson is carrying an average offense. The Seahawks defense isn't dominant like before particularly with their revamped secondary that ranks 29th in pass defense. This is a circle-the-wagons game for the Eagles and they are home. Carson Wentz should start to look better getting some of his injured weapons back, including his top wideout, Alshon Jeffery. The Eagles have the top tight end tandem in the league with Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert. Philadelphia has the fourth-best run defense in the NFL and its defensive backfield is much better with the return of injured cornerbacks Ronald Darby and Jalen Mills. The Eagles have given up just 14.6 points during their last three games.
11-24-19	Raiders v. Jets +3	Top	3-34	Win	100	92 h 6 m	Show
Jon Gruden has improved the Raiders this season. But he hasn't improved Oakland enough where it can cover as a road favorite in a flat spot like this. The Raiders are traveling cross-country for an early West Coast start time. Up next for Oakland is an AFC West showdown against the Chiefs. Under Gruden, the Raiders have failed to cover in eight of 12 away matchups. The Raiders need to establish a balanced attack. The Jets do one thing extremely well - stop the run ranking No. 1 in the NFL giving up fewer than 80 yards per game. Saquan Barkley managed just one yard on 13 carries against the Jets. That does not bode well for Josh Jacobs. Oakland is vulnerable through the air ranking 27th in pass defense. Sam Darnold has started to play better and has good receiving targets to take advantage. The Jets' strengths match up well to Oakland and New York also is in the superior situational spot.
11-23-19	Washington v. Colorado +14.5	Top	14-20	Win	100	57 h 47 m	Show
This high line might be justified from a Washington point of view if this were last season and if the Huskies cared about this game. But it's not. Washington is down from the past couple of seasons. The Huskies have the third-best defense in the Pac-12. Certainly that's good by ordinary standards, but not by Washington standards. The Huskies had led the Pac-12 in the key defensive categories during the previous four seasons. Colorado has receiving weapons for experienced QB Steven Montez with Laviska Shenault, Tony Brown and K.D. Nixon. Shenault is one of the top wideouts in the nation. The Huskies already have a bowl spot secured with their 6-4 record. They have a look-ahead spot with their traditional season-ending game against Washington State next week. The Buffaloes are in must-win mode if they want to stay alive for a bowl berth. They have played better at home going 3-2 ATS posting straight-up victories against Nebraska and Stanford. Colorado lost by four points to USC as 10 1/2-point home 'dogs.
11-23-19	Texas +6 v. Baylor	Top	10-24	Loss	-110	22 h 21 m	Show
It may take more than a week for Baylor to get over its choke job against Oklahoma. The Sooners rallied from 25 points down to beat the Bears last week ending Baylor's hopes of an unbeaten season. Baylor doesn't even need to win this game to earn a rematch with the Sooners in the Big 12 title game. All the Bears have to do to accomplish that is defeat Kansas in their regular season finale. Texas has had a disappointing season. But the Longhorns still have an outside chance of a conference title plus a strong bowl game if they win their final two regular season games. The Longhorns are at their most dangerous in an underdog role thanks to Tom Herman. He's the premier underdog coach in CFB. Herman coached Houston for two years before going to Texas. The Cougars were 5-0 ATS as 'dogs under Herman. The Longhorns are 10-4 ATS when getting points in three years under Herman. So Herman's combined head coaching record against the spread as an underdog is 15-4 (79 percent)! I like Baylor QB Charlie Brewer. But I like Texas QB Sam Ehlinger even more. Texas has defeated Baylor the past four times the teams have met, including 23-17 last season and 38-7 in Waco two years ago.
11-23-19	Michigan v. Indiana +10		39-14	Loss	-110	49 h 58 m	Show
Michigan's biggest game of its season always is Ohio State. It's one of the top rivalries in the nation and the best one in the Big Ten. The Wolverines host the Buckeyes next week. That puts them in a dangerous look-ahead spot here against Indiana. It's also a Big Ten Conference sandwich spot for the Wolverines as they just whipped their hated in-state rival, Michigan State, at home this past Saturday. The Wolverines are 1-4 ATS the last five years in their previous game before Ohio State, including failing to cover the last three seasons in this spot. Indiana is much improved. The Hoosiers reached the Top 25 for the first time since 1994 before suffering a 34-27 road loss to Penn State last week. Indiana covered that game and is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games. Michigan hasn't beaten Indiana on the road by more than seven points in its last three visits. The Hoosiers are averaging 33.3 points. They have the offense to stay within single digits of the Wolverines at home again especially considering Michigan's negative scheduling dynamics.
11-23-19	North Texas v. Rice OVER 55		14-20	Loss	-120	49 h 56 m	Show
Now that Mason Fine has been cleared to play, I'm going to get involved on the Over in this matchup. Fine is one of the top QB's in the country. The senior has passed for 2,659 yards, completed 62.6 percent of his throws and has a 27-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 10 games. Jaelon Darden and Michael Lawrence are talented wide receivers. Rice ranks 99th in pass defense. Rice produced 31 points in its last game playing Middle Tennessee State. The Owls have found their right QB in Tom Stewart, who threw for 222 yards and three TD's in that victory. North Texas has a weak defense. The Mean Green rank 101st in run defense. They've yielded more than 40 points four times and are giving up an average of 34.4 points a game, which ranks 115th.
11-23-19	BYU v. UMass +40.5		56-24	Win	100	26 h 10 m	Show
BYU just isn't good enough to lay this kind of number especially on the road with an early East Coast start time and being in a letdown spot following four consecutive victories. UMass is one of the worst teams in college football. But the Minutemen are capable of putting up points. They average 28.2 points at home. The Minutemen haven't played a home game in three weeks. This is their final game of the season so an effort should be forthcoming.
11-21-19	NC State v. Georgia Tech UNDER 47	Top	26-28	Loss	-110	19 h 16 m	Show
There are some decent teams in the ACC. These are not two of them. North Carolina State and Georgia Tech are a combined 6-14. The season can't end quick enough for the Wolfpack and Yellow Jackets. North Carolina State ranks 104th in scoring averaging fewer than 23 points a game. The Wolfpack have produced fewer than 17 points in four of their last six games. They only have one rushing touchdown in their last six games. Georgia Tech's strength is its pass defense. The Yellow Jackets rank 29th permitting fewer than 200 passing yards a game. Georgia Tech scores even less than NC State averaging 16.5 points per game. The Yellow Jackets rank among the bottom-11 teams in the nation in scoring and yards gained. They are last in red zone offense. North Carolina State has a good defensive line. The Wolfpack rate 32nd in stopping the run. Georgia Tech lacks any big-play element and has failed to rush for more 100 yards in two of its last three games.
11-20-19	Akron v. Miami-OH UNDER 45.5	Top	17-20	Win	100	45 h 49 m	Show
ESPN2 must not care about its scheduling. How else to explain the network showing Akron football. What is ESPN2 going to program next, reruns of "My Mother the Car," (yes there really was a My Mother The Car show and it may have been the worst TV sitcom ever). Akron has the worst offense in college football averaging 10.6 points a game. The Zips have scored 23 points in their last five games. They rank second-to-last in yards per game, 94th in passing and last in rushing. Other than that, they have a fairly strong attack. The Zips usually save their most boring for the road going Under in 16 of their last 23 away matchups. Miami of Ohio is a respectable 58th in total defense. The Redhawks are bad offensively, too, ranking 93rd in scoring at 24.8 points and 121st in yards gained.
11-17-19	Bengals +11.5 v. Raiders		10-17	Win	100	117 h 50 m	Show
I get that the Bengals remain the only winless team in the NFL and that their new QB, Ryan Finley, isn't even as good as Andy Dalton. But the Raiders aren't a team to lay this high of a number. Only once during the Jon Gruden era have the Raiders won a game by more than eight points. Oakland is in a flat spot, too, having narrowly won a huge home division game against the Chargers last week. This is the Raiders' third home game in a row. Finley could prove better now that he's had a start. He's going against the league's 30th-ranked pass defense. The Raiders are down their three best players in the secondary with safety Karl Joseph out with a foot injury. Earlier they lost safety Jonathan Abram to injury and traded cornerback Gareon Conley. It's a huge added bonus if the Bengals finally get the services of star wide receiver A.J. Green and offensive left tackle Cordy Glenn for the first time this season. The Bengals have been money-makers on the road covering in seven of their last nine road contests.
11-17-19	Jets +1.5 v. Redskins		34-17	Win	100	114 h 31 m	Show
The Jets do one thing exceptionally well and that's stop the run. They rank No. 2 in rush defense. The Redskins have become totally reliant on a ground-and-pound approach under interim coach Bill Callahan. That means heavy duty work for 34-year-old Adrian Peterson. This might be a sound approach - if it were 2012. Washington is force-feeding not-ready QB Dwayne Haskins. This reminds me of what the Browns experienced during their winless 2017 season when they kept trotting out overmatched DeShone Kizer at QB. The Jets have the superior skill position players. Sam Darnold is off to a slow start in this his second season. However, he still rates a strong edge on Haskins.
11-17-19	Saints v. Bucs OVER 50	Top	34-17	Win	100	114 h 37 m	Show
New Orleans finally is at full strength on offense with Alvin Kamara and Jared Cook playing last week. That's bad news for a Tampa Bay defense that surrenders the most points and passing yards per game. The Buccaneers, though, are the No. 3 scoring team in the league because they have a dynamic passing attack. There may not be a better wide receiver tandem than Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. The Saints are without Marshon Lattimore. He's their No. 1 cornerback and he's out with a hamstring injury. It's not a fluke the Buccaneers have gone Over in seven straight games.
11-16-19	Air Force v. Colorado State OVER 63.5		38-21	Loss	-115	28 h 42 m	Show
If you can't stop the run you can not stop Air Force. The Falcons are the No. 2 rushing team in the country averaging 324.1 yards a game. Colorado State ranks 111th in run defense allowing an average of 204.7 yards. The Falcons have averaged nearly 35 points a game during the last five meetings between the two teams. The Over has cashed each of the last seven times the teams have met in Colorado Springs. The Over is 18-8 in Air Force's last 26 road contests. Colorado State's offense has picked up since Nebraska transfer Patrick O'Brien replaced injured Colin Hill at quarterback. The Rams have scored 37, 41 and 35 points during their last three games. O'Brien has averaged 302.5 passing yards per game since taking over as the starter. Warren Jackson has emerged as the premier wide receiver in the Mountain West Conference leading the league with 121.7 receiving yards per game.
11-16-19	LSU v. Ole Miss +21.5	Top	58-37	Win	100	28 h 53 m	Show
Huge letdown spot here for LSU after the Tigers' great SEC showdown victory over Alabama last week. That effort was both physically and emotionally draining for the Tigers. If you discount its loss to Alabama, Mississippi has lost five games by an average of 6.6 points. The Rebels played both Texas A&M and Auburn close. Mississippi ranks No. 1 in the SEC and 13th nationally in rushing. Rebels freshman QB John Rhys Plumlee is a dual threat. He leads the team in rushing. LSU QB Joe Burrow can't produce points if his offense is on the bench watching Mississippi control clock with its ground attack.
11-16-19	Kentucky v. Vanderbilt UNDER 44		38-14	Loss	-116	100 h 32 m	Show
These are two bad offensive teams with feeble passing games. Kentucky averages just 20.3 points, which ranks 114th in the nation. Converted wide receiver Lynn Bowden Jr. is the Wildcats' QB. He can't throw. Vanderbilt averages 15.1 points a game, which is 126th in the country. The Commodores have gone through four QB's, none of whom have been effective. The scary thing about Vandy is its offense is regressing. The Commodores are averaging less than nine points during their last five games.
11-16-19	Navy v. Notre Dame -7	Top	20-52	Win	100	23 h 29 m	Show
I'm going to fade the line movement. The marketplace is overthinking this matchup by their heavy play on Navy. Notre Dame has won 16 in a row at home. The Irish have played a tougher schedule than Navy and beat them, 44-22, last season as 21 1/2-point favorites at a neutral site. This is the last ranked regular season opponent Notre Dame faces. So the Irish won't lack motivation. Navy actually has a bigger game on deck with a first-place showdown in the American Athletic Conference West Division playing at home against SMU.
11-16-19	Florida v. Missouri UNDER 51		23-6	Win	100	21 h 37 m	Show
QB Kelly Bryant isn't healthy and Missouri's offense is shot. Missouri is averaging seven points during its last three games. Florida has a strong defense whose season-long statistics have been skewed by a 42-28 loss to LSU. Missouri has a tough defense ranking ninth in fewest yards allowed per game. The Tigers surrender the 19th-fewest points per game and are ranked fourth in the nation in pass defense. The Gators have trouble hanging on to the ball committing 21 turnovers.
11-14-19	Steelers v. Browns OVER 40	Top	7-21	Loss	-105	49 h 14 m	Show
This is too low of a total given how the NFL is played today with nearly all of their rules skewed toward helping the offense. The buy sign finally could be on for the Browns offense after Baker Mayfield threw two TD passes against the Bills last week. It was his first multiple TD pass performance of the season. Buffalo gives up the third-fewest points in the NFL and also ranks No. 3 in pass defense. Pittsburgh's defense isn't that good and far less intimidating on the road. This marks the Steelers' first road game in five weeks. Mayfield has a new weapon with Kareem Hunt returning from suspension. Odell Beckham Jr. is way overdue for a big game. The Browns shouldn't be holding anything back with their season on the line. Pittsburgh's offense should be better with bell-cow running back James Conner expected to play after being out with a shoulder injury. The Steelers failed to adequately replace Conner when he was out the last two weeks. Mason Rudolph is getting more comfortable each week running Pittsburgh's offense. He should be better set up for favorable pass plays with Conner back in the lineup. The Browns defense is below average especially their run defense, which ranks 27th. Weather shouldn't be a hindrance either with temperatures in the 30's, clear skies and a 10 mph wind.
11-12-19	Eastern Michigan v. Akron UNDER 49.5	Top	42-14	Loss	-112	25 h 29 m	Show
If the Mid-American Conference wants to show off their brand of football on a Tuesday - of all nights - they sure picked a wrong team with Akron. The Zips have a cool nickname, but there is nothing exciting about their offense. They are last in the nation in scoring averaging 10.2 points a game. The Zips haven't scored a TD during their last four games putting up the grand total of nine points during this span. Akron ranks 94th in passing and last in rushing. Eastern Michigan is going to have to carry the scoring load. The Eagles aren't exactly an offensive powerhouse either ranking 82nd in points at 26.2 and 88th in total yards at 377.6. The Eagles are bad defensively, but Akron doesn't have the capability to take advantage. (Update: This total has gone done considerably since I released the play on Monday. I would still recommend the Under, but not for a Max Unit play.)
11-11-19	Seahawks +6 v. 49ers	Top	27-24	Win	100	174 h 14 m	Show
Russell Wilson is the best QB in the NFL right now. I want Wilson going for me with this many points on the Monday Night Football center stage. Seattle has covered the last eight times it has been an underdog, including both times this season. The 49ers are the most improved team in the league. But now they have the bullseye and pressure on them to only win, but cover margins, too. They lack Seattle's prime time big-game experience and record. The Seahawks are well-balanced with a respectable ground attack and now three dangerous wide receiving targets for Wilson with Josh Gordon joining Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. San Francisco suffered an unsung defensive injury with linebacker Kwon Alexander out for the year with a torn pec muscle. Alexander was the 49ers' second-leading tackler. The 49ers also have been missing their starting offensive tackles and star tight end George Kittle is doubtful. Seattle has dominated this series winning 10 of the past 11 meetings going 7-3-1 ATS.
11-10-19	Vikings v. Cowboys UNDER 48.5	Top	28-24	Loss	-109	27 h 14 m	Show
Both teams have skill position stars. But it's defense that carries the Vikings and Cowboys, both of whom rank in the top-five in fewest points allowed per game. Bad offensive lines don't travel well. That could be the case here for the Vikings. I don't trust Kirk Cousins on the road against an elite defense either. Minneota could be without its most consistent wide receiver, too, with Adam Thielen reinjuring his hamstring last Sunday and not practicing this week. The Cowboys have faced just one elite defense - the Saints. They were held to a season-low 10 points by New Orleans.The Vikings' defense is just as good if not better. Vikings coach Mike Zimmer is familiar with the Cowboys. He was a defensive assistant there for many years. Zimmer is conservative coach. He's going to pound the ball and play for field position. The Vikings have gone below the total in nine of their last 11 NFC matchups. The Cowboys are going to look to feed Ezekiel Elliott. Dallas' two best wide receivers, Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup, are both banged-up and at less than 100 percent. There should be a lot of running with Elliott and Dalvin Cook. So the clock will keep moving at a brisk pace with few stoppages.
11-10-19	Chiefs v. Titans +6.5		32-35	Win	100	20 h 40 m	Show
I'm taking the underdog Titans fully expecting Patrick Mahomes to play. If Mahomes doesn't, or is limited from his knee injury after being out just two weeks, so much for the better but I'm not counting on that. Instead I'm backing the Titans based on their merit, style of play and situation. The Titans are solid defensively. They've given up the sixth-fewest points per game in the NFL. Kansas City doesn't have an outstanding offensive line. Andy Reid is going to have to be more conservative in Mahomes' first game back from injury. This is a huge game for the Titans. They are two games behind in the AFC South Division and have a bye next week. Ryan Tannehill has been an upgrade on Marcus Mariota. The key, though, is the running of Derrick Henry. He's a powerful inside runner, who has a history of playing his best during November and December. The Chiefs rank 29th versus the run, surrendering 180 or more rushing yards four times this year. The Titans can maintain ball-control because of Henry keeping the Chiefs' high-octane offense off the field.
11-10-19	Falcons +14.5 v. Saints		26-9	Win	100	20 h 31 m	Show
The Saints are 7-1 fat and happy. The Falcons are 1-7 despondent and desperate. It's a division rivalry. The Falcons are off a bye and have Matt Ryan back. That's enough to get me involved taking two touchdowns. Atlanta actually averages more yards per game than New Orleans. Thanks to Ryan, who is having an excellent season, the Falcons lead the NFL in passing. Ryan has dangerous weapons with Julio Jones - who is in the argument for best wideout in the league - Calvin Ridley, Devonta Freeman and tight end Austin Hopper. Only once this season have the Saints won by more than 11 points. This should be a shooout and the Falcons have backdoor capabilities.
11-09-19	Tennessee v. Kentucky -120		17-13	Loss	-120	29 h 22 m	Show
I'm not buying into Tennessee being a much improved team. Kentucky has covered its last five home games. The Wildcats have gotten their weak QB play straighten out with the decision to make junior wide receiver Lynn Bowden Jr. their QB. Bowden has been very effective running the ball. He's a tremendous athlete who gives the Wildcats a different dimension from their previous QB's, Terry Wilson and Sawyer Smith. Alabama and LSU draw the SEC headlines. Quietly, though, Kentucky has covered eight of its last 10. This is just the Volunteers' third road game. They lost their first two by 33 points to Florida and by 22 points to Alabama.
11-09-19	Georgia State -135 v. UL-Monroe	Top	31-45	Loss	-135	29 h 14 m	Show
Neither team plays good defense. But Georgia State has the better offense and is hot winning four in a row. Monroe has lost two in a row surrendering a staggering 100 points in those two defeats. Georgia State has good balance on offense averaging more than 200 yards both passing and rushing. Monroe gives up more than 200 yards both on the ground and through the air. The Panthers average 36.6 points a game, which ranks 21st in the country. Led by running back Tra Barnett and dual-threat QB Dan Ellington, the Panthers ranked 10th in rushing. Monroe permits more than 235 yards on the ground. Monroe averages nearly nine points fewer per game than Georgia State. The Warhawks yield 38.6 points a game. They do not have a good history at home either going 7-20-1 ATS during their past 28 home games. Georgia State upset Tennessee, winning 38-30 as 24 1/2-point road 'dogs. That victory seems impressive now considering that Tennessee has defeated Mississippi State, South Caroina and UAB during its past four games.
11-09-19	Iowa v. Wisconsin -9		22-24	Loss	-105	26 h 9 m	Show
Wisconsin wasn't as good as advertised when it steamrolled its first six opponents by an average of 38 points. But the Badgers aren't as bad as they looked in a 38-7 loss to Ohio State two weeks ago and in letting themselves get upset by Illinois before that game in an obvious look-ahead spot to Ohio State. The Badgers had a much needed bye last week. I see a regrouped Badgers squad taking care of Iowa at home. Wisconsin is 16-5 ATS following a bye. Both teams are tough defensively. The difference is Wisconsin has a stud RB in Jonathan Taylor, who I consider the best RB in the country. Iowa ranks 94th in scoring offense averaging only 24.4 points a game. The Hawkeyes could be minus star offensive lineman Alaric Jackson, too. Wisconsin has won the last three in the series.
11-09-19	Stanford -3 v. Colorado		13-16	Loss	-110	26 h 22 m	Show
Stanford is a much better team now that QB K.J. Costello is back from a thumb injury. The Cardinal have a balanced attack with Costello, who has the skill set to find his second and third targets. Stanford also is in the hunt to become bowl eligible for the 11th consecutive season. The Cardinal can't afford to slip here. I don't they will given Colorado's woes. The Buffaloes entered the season with a great deal of optimism under first-year coach Mel Tucker. That's gone now. The Buffaloes have underachieved offensively scoring 14 or fewer points in three of their last four games and their defense has falled apart due to attriution and injuries. Colorado ranks second-to-last in the Pac-12 in scoring defense allowing 34.4 points.
11-09-19	East Carolina v. SMU -21		51-59	Loss	-108	23 h 14 m	Show
Kill spot for SMU here off a six-point road loss to Memphis. This is the Mustangs' homecoming game and they need a victory to stay in the AAC hunt. East Carolina is a patsy. The Pirates' lone victories were against Gardner-Webb, Old Dominion and William & Mary. The Pirates played extremely hard against Cincinnati last week nearly pulling off an upset before losing, 46-43, as 25-point home 'dogs. That loss eliminated East Carolina from any hope of earning a bowl bid. The Pirates are likely to be deflated and don't have the offense, averaging fewer than 24 points a game, to keep pace with the Mustangs.
11-07-19	Chargers -119 v. Raiders	Top	24-26	Loss	-119	24 h 1 m	Show
The Chargers are a level higher than the Raiders. Injuries and Melvin Gordon's holdout held the Chargers back earlier in the season. But now they have gotten healthier and just played their most complete game in rolling over the then 7-1 Packers by 15 points this past Sunday. Look for that strong play to carry into this game. Gordon looked great against the Packers. Hunter Henry is back giving Philip Rivers a top-notch tight end receiving target. The Chargers' play-calling and tempo was much crisper, too, in Shane Steichen's first game as offensive coordinator. Rivers has averaged 304.2 yards with an 8-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last four games against the Raiders. Oakland ranks last in pass defense and just lost one of its few decent pass rushers in Arden Key. Joey Bosa is the best defensive plater on the field. He could cause a lot of havoc for Derek Carr, who could be missing starting offensive right tackle Trent Brown and center Rodney Hudson. Carr isn't nearly as effective under a heavy pass rush as other quarterbacks. The Chargers have won the covered the past four in the series, including winning by an average of 15 points in the two games last season.
11-03-19	Patriots -3 v. Ravens		20-37	Loss	-103	54 h 28 m	Show
Don't overthink this. Just ride New England until proven otherwise. The Patriots have covered 71 percent of their last 65 games! Bill Belichick should enter the Hall of Fame just on that number alone. A lot is being made of the Patriots going up against the most dangerous dual-threat QB in the NFL in second-year man Lamar Jackson. Turn it around, though. Jackson is going up against a Patriots defense that could be Belichick's all-time best. The Patriots are surrendering an NFL-low 7.6 points per game. They rank No. 2 in totals yards and passing yards. New England has intercepted at least one pass in each game and rank first in interceptions and sacks. Oh, yes, the Patriots have won the last 21 times they've gone against a first or second-year QB. John Harbaugh has been tough following a bye. The Ravens, however, haven't been a strong home team failing to cover in their past six home contests.
11-03-19	Lions v. Raiders OVER 50.5		24-31	Win	100	50 h 23 m	Show
No Kerryon Johnson means no more emphasis from the Lions on a ground attack. Detroit doesn't need one thanks to a strong bounce back season from Matthew Stafford, who has a 16-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and three solid wide receivers in Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola. The Raider rank 28th in scoring defense and 31st in pass defense. They are without their two best guys in the secondary with Jonathan Abram injured and Gareon Conley traded. The Lions should have a great deal of success throwing here. Oakland, though, is playing well offensively ranking sixth in yards per play. The Raiders haven't allowed a sack in the last three weeks. Derek Carr has thrown just one interception in the last five games and Josh Jacobs has come through at running back. The Lions are banged-up in the secondary, too, with cornerbacks Darius Slay and Rashaan Melvin each injured. Detroit traded safety and team leader Quandre Diggs. Carr should have time to throw as the Lions have had zero or one sack in three of their last four games.
11-03-19	Bucs +6 v. Seahawks		34-40	Push	0	50 h 15 m	Show
Tampa Bay can pass the ball effectively and stop the run. Those are two key components when taking on the Seahawks. Seattle is heavily run-oriented. The Buccaneers give up just 68.6 yards rushing, best in the NFL. Tampa Bay's pass rush is upgraded, too, with the return of Jason Pierre-Paul. He'll team up with NFC sacks leader Shaq Barrett. Jameis Winston has strong receiving weapons. Seattle ranks 27th in pass defense and has injuries with safeties Tedric Thompson and newly acquired Quandre Diggs out. The Seahawks have only three sacks in their past four games. The Buccaneers have proven dangerous as road 'dogs already knocking off the Panthers and Rams. Seattle has failed to cover the past four times it has been a home favorite, including nearly losing to the Bengals and falling by 14 points to the Ravens two games ago.
11-03-19	Jets -3 v. Dolphins		18-26	Loss	-119	48 h 34 m	Show
The Jets have looked bad lately facing two strong defenses, New England and Jacksonville. Now, though, the Jets are stepping all the way down in class. The Dolphins have the worst personnel in the NFL and they just lost one of their few good players in Pro Bowl cornerback Xavien Howard. The Jets have far more talent than the Dolphins. If there is one team Jets coach Adam Gase does not want to lose to it's his former team the Dolphins. Gase should know the Dolphins - or what is left of them - well having been Miami's head coach the previous three seasons. Miami is home, but on a short week having exerted a mental and physical effort in a Monday night road loss to the Steelers. All of Miami's losses, except the one to the Redskins, have been by double-digits.
11-03-19	Redskins v. Bills -9	Top	9-24	Win	100	48 h 4 m	Show
The Redskins are averaging 8.5 points in their last six games. They may get shut out by a strong and angry Bills defense that is coming off an embarrassing, 31-13, home loss to the Eagles last Sunday. Before that game, the Bills had held five of their first six foes to 17 points or fewer. I see Buffalo's defense rebounding in big fashion against rookie QB Dwayne Haskins, who is in line to make his first NFL start. Jay Gruden was right about Haskins in that the first-year QB isn't nearly ready. Haskins has a 34.5 passer rating with four interceptions in two cameo appearances. The Bills should stack the line to stop ancient Adrian Peterson forcing Haskins to make plays, which I don't see him doing. The Bills are very alive to come up with a pick-six or two. The Bills don't have a good offense. But Josh Allen can make plays with his feet and Buffalo should be operating from outstanding field position. The Bills do own two double-digit victories this season.
11-03-19	Fresno State v. Hawaii UNDER 69.5	Top	41-38	Loss	-102	49 h 6 m	Show
Fresno State coach Jeff Tedford is a quarterback guru. That's something well known about Tedford. What isn't so well known is that Tedford's teams have a strong Under tendency especially on the road where the low side has covered 12 of the last 16 times. Neither defense here has been very good. Hawaii has an explosive passing attack. That is why the total is so high. But in the last four years the most points scored in this matchup was 56 in 2015. There were 52 points scored last year and just 27 in 2016. This isn't a vintage Fresno State offense and Jorge Reyna isn't one of Tedford's great QB's. Reyna has a 3-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last four games. The Bulldogs have used five different offensive line combination and 11 players have made their first start for the offense. Lack of focus and execution has hurt Fresno State. Hawaii lost a bit of its receiving depth when Melquise Stovall was dismissed from the team last week. He was third on the team in TD catches. Fresno State has done a good job of limiting big plays tied with Boise State for fewest pass plays of 20 or more yards allowed. So I could see a fifth straight game of fewer than 60 points being scored.
11-02-19	Cincinnati v. East Carolina OVER 47		46-43	Win	100	44 h 27 m	Show
Cincinnati's defense gets a lot of credit. But the Bearcats' offense has been producing. Cincinnati is averaging 35.2 points in its last five games. Desmond Ridder and Co. should have a field day against an East Carolina defense that ranks 88th in yards allowed and 99th in run defense. This isn't a big total to go Over and the Pirates could contribute to it. They have a talented quarterback in Holton Ahlers.
11-02-19	UAB +12.5 v. Tennessee		7-30	Loss	-109	43 h 24 m	Show
Look I get that Alabama Birmingham's 6-1 record is deceiving being littered by beating patsies. But I don't think Tennessee is that good with its three-headed QB monster running an offense that ranks 103rd in yards. The Blazers defense is impressive regardless ranking No. 8 in run defense and 11th in points allowed at just 15.7 per game. None of the Blazers' opponents have scored more than 20 points on them. UAB has a balanced attack. QB Tyler Johston III has thrown for 260 or more yards in five of the Blazers' last six games. Tennessee is in a letdown spot after its big win against South Carolina last week. The Volunteers don't have a good track record at home failing to cover in 15 of their last 21 home games. UAB has been a strong money-maker going 25-10-1 ATS in its last 36 games.
11-02-19	Army v. Air Force UNDER 46		13-17	Win	100	17 h 51 m	Show
The last five in this series have all gone Under, including Army's 17-14 win last year. It's no surprise considering these are both triple option teams, play at a slow pace and this is a heated rivalry. Not many teams run an option. But Army and Air Force each do so its defenses are familiar with that kind of unique attack. Army is averaging just 19.3 points in its last three games. Note the teams will be playing on a grass field, which is a plus for the Under.
11-02-19	Kansas State v. Kansas +6.5	Top	38-10	Loss	-115	55 h 55 m	Show
Kansas is one of the most improved teams in the nation under Les Miles. The Jayhawks have posted upsets of Boston College and Texas Tech while nearly knocking off Texas losing at the gun. The Jayhawks' offense has picked up under offensive coordinator Brent Dearmon with Carter Stanley one of the more underrated QB's in the country. Kansas is ready to spring another upset, this time against arch-rival Kansas State. The Wildcats have dominated this series winning the last 10 times. The Jayhawks hung tough against the Wildcats last season on the road, losing 21-17. Now the Jayhawks are home, vastly improved, riding some confidence and catch the Wildcats in a letdown spot. Kansas State just pulled off a monster upset of Oklahoma last Saturday as a 23 1/2-point home 'dog. This is the Wildcats' first road game in four weeks and only their third road game of the season.
10-31-19	West Virginia v. Baylor -17.5	Top	14-17	Loss	-110	32 h 19 m	Show
This matchup sets up well for Baylor coming off a bye. Baylor is very solid on both sides of the ball and is running hot with seven straight wins. West Virginia is at low ebb losing three in a row, being outscored in those games, 132-59, by Texas, Iowa State and Oklahoma State. Those are all good Big 12 teams. But so is unbeaten 11th-ranked Baylor. The Bears have the third-best scoring offense in the Big 12. The Bears have depth at running back, a receiving threat in Denzel Mims and dual threat quarterback Charlie Brewer knows how to take care of the ball. If you discount the Texas Tech game, Brewer hasn't thrown an interception all season. Brewer will be operating against a depleted West Virginia defense that gives up the most points in the Big 12 and just lost linebacker Josh Chandler to a knee injury.
10-27-19	Packers v. Chiefs +4.5	Top	31-24	Loss	-110	45 h 14 m	Show
OK, Patrick Mahomes isn't going to play. But the Chiefs are far from dead without Mahomes especially as a home 'dog in this price range. We can all agree Arrowhead Stadium is one of the tougher road venues. There should be unanimous agreement, too, that Andy Reid is an elite coach dangerous with extra prep time, which the Chiefs have from playing last Thursday. Veteran Matt Moore is one of the better backups in the league. I respect Moore because he throws downfield where many backups don't have the skill set to do anything except game manage and checkdown. Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill provide Moore with a top-two tight end and perhaps the premier deep threat in the league. This is just Green Bay's second road game in seven weeks. Aaron Rodgers has a career losing road record and isn't expected to have his top wide receiver, injured Davonte Adams.
10-27-19	Eagles +2.5 v. Bills		31-13	Win	100	37 h 45 m	Show
The records show 5-1 and 3-4. But it's the Bills who are the 5-1 team. Buffalo has a very solid defense. The Bills' offense scares no one, though. Buffalo has built its record by beating the Jets, Giants, Bengals, Titans and Dolphins. Combined record of those teams is 6-27. None of those foes is above .500. The Eagles opened 3-2 before losing consecutive road games to the Vikings and Cowboys. Philly was outmatched in those games. The Eagles won't be here. They also won't lack motivation after a humiliating national TV loss to the Cowboys unlike the Bills, who are fat and happy. Buffalo is heavily run-oriented. Bills second-year QB Josh Allen is turnover-prone. The Eagles have gotten healthier in the secondary and rank seventh in rush defense. They've been tough on every running back except superstar Ezekiel Elliott.
10-27-19	Jets +7.5 v. Jaguars		15-29	Loss	-140	37 h 38 m	Show
The Jets aren't as good as they looked in beating the Cowboys two weeks ago. But they also aren't as befuddled as they looked this past Monday against the Patriots. New York's season stats are skewed because of the three games Luke Falk started. The Jets are much better with Sam Darnold behind center. The only ghost Darnold is going to see is the ghost of departed Jaguars cornerback Jalen Ramsey. Jacksonville's defense isn't as good without Ramsey, their top defensive back, and injured lineman Marcell Dareus. Jacksonville also is banged up at linebacker. Darnold has gone against the Bills, in a game the Jets lost by one point, Cowboys and Patriots. The Jaguars aren't as good as those teams. I fail to see the publicity match the skill set with Jaguars QB Gardner Minshew. He's thrown one TD pass in his last two games while failing to complete even half of his passes in those two games.
10-27-19	Giants +7 v. Lions		26-31	Win	100	37 h 32 m	Show
It seemed for a brief moment that the Lions might be better than mediocre this season. That moment has flickered away. The Lions are who they always have been - poorly coached, bad on defense, unable to run and adept at blowing leads. The Giants need to protect Daniel Jones better, but they don't lack for skill position weapons headed by the electrifying Saquan Barkley. He's in line for a huge game going against a beat-up Lions defense line that has injuries to Damon Harrison, Da'Shawn Hand and Mike Daniels. The Lions also are without their top cornerback, injured Darius Slay, and traded away safety Quandre Diggs. The Lions lack the pass rush to protect their now undermanned secondary. Detroit has yielded 430 or more yards in each of its last three games, the first time the Lions have done that in 11 years. The Lions' largest victory margin this season is three points. The Giants have covered eight of the last 10 times as a road 'dog. New York's defense can key on the pass as the Lions also lost their top running back, Kerryon Johnson.
10-27-19	Broncos v. Colts -4	Top	13-15	Loss	-115	38 h 25 m	Show
If the Broncos thought they could make a successful run with Joe Flacco at quarterback they were sadly delusional. It took a 30-6 home loss to the Chiefs last Thursday to figure that out. Now, at 2-5, the Broncos know they are dead. Only seven teams during the last 40 years have made the postseason after opening 2-5. Emmmanuel Sanders, Denver's best wideout, got traded. Others are likely to follow before Tuesday's trade deadline concludes. Unless Dwayne Haskins becomes the Redskins new first-stringer, Flacco is the worst starting QB in the NFL. And Garett Bolles may be the worst offensive left tackle in the league. It's a lethal combination that sinks the Broncos' popgun offense that has failed to break 16 points in five of their seven games. The Broncos' defense is good, but not great. Certainly it's not nearly strong enough to carry such a putrid offense. The Colts have proven time after time under Frank Reich that they are legitimate. Indy's defense has back it's best playmaker, linebacker Darius Leonard, and top defensive back in free safety Malik Hooker. The Colts are balanced on offense with Jacoby Brissett coming off a confidence-building four-touchdown performance in a 30-23 home win against Houston last Sunday. When you factor in home field advantage and the Colts being without a major weakness, this line comes up short.
10-26-19	Utah State v. Air Force OVER 58.5	Top	7-31	Loss	-109	50 h 54 m	Show
Look for a shootout between these two teams. Air Force is averaging 41.2 points in its last four games. The Falcons rank No. 2 in the nation in rushing. They have averaged 35 points the past two seasons against Utah State. Utah State has one of the best QB's in the country, Jordan Love. The Aggies play at an extremely fast tempo, which is a huge plus for the Over. The Falcons rank 74th in pass defense. Utah State has averaged 40 points versus Air Force during the past two years.
10-26-19	Arizona State v. UCLA +3.5		32-42	Win	100	32 h 12 m	Show
UCLA is getting better. The Bruins are 2-1-1 ATS in their last four games, including SU road victories against Washington State and Stanford. The Bruins have improved their defense, allowing 366 yards per game during their last three games, and getting better QB play. Star running back Joshua Kelley is healthy again, too. Arizona State has been getting worse. The Sun Devils are coming off a lackluster 21-3 loss to Utah. UCLA has played a tougher schedule than Arizona State. The Sun Devils' early season win against Michigan State doesn't look so impressive now given the Spartans' woes. This has been an extremely tight series. The Sun Devils nipped UCLA, 31-28, last year. The Bruins are better than they were last season. I see them getting revenge at home.
10-26-19	Texas Tech -4.5 v. Kansas		34-37	Loss	-108	32 h 14 m	Show
Kansas is much improved under Les Miles. But the Jayhawks still have a long rebuild and this spot sets up great for Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are coming off a tough 34-24 home loss to Iowa State. They can't afford a loss to Kansas in their quest to make a bowl game. The Red Raiders have plenty of firepower and should give the Jayhawks their best effort. Kansas, on the other hand, is in a letdown spot after nearly upsetting Texas in one of its best performances of the past few years. The Jayhawks had rallied several times to lead, but lost on a field goal at the gun, 50-48. Kansas played its guts out and it's going to be difficult for the Jayhaws to match that performance physically and emotionally. Texas Tech has dominated this series winning the past nine times while going 7-2 ATS. The Red Raiders' average win in this span has been by 24 points. Texas Tech has defeated Kansas by an average of 38 points during the last three years. The gap has narrowed. But not enough and the situation lays out well for the Red Raiders.
10-26-19	Auburn +11 v. LSU		20-23	Win	100	28 h 34 m	Show
LSU hasn't faced a defense nearly this good all season. Auburn gives up just 17.1 points per game. That ranks 16th in the nation. Auburn also is 11th in run defense with its NFL-caliber defensive line. Auburn freshman QB Bo Nix is getting better. He's surrounded by strong pieces. LSU plays Alabama in its next game. So the Tigers have to guard against getting ahead of themselves. Not so with Auburn, which needs this game to keep in contention to win the Western Division portion of the SEC. Auburn has covered seven of its last eight games. This should be a highly competitive game just like the past three, which were decided by 1, 4 and 5 points.
10-26-19	Illinois v. Purdue -9.5	Top	24-6	Loss	-106	41 h 45 m	Show
Congrats to Illinois on pulling off the season's biggest upset with its 24-23 home victory against sixth-ranked Wisconsin last Saturday. The Illini were 28 1/2-point underdogs. It was the first time Illinois had defeated a ranked team in eight years. I'm not a fan of Illinois coach Lovie Smith, though, and I don't see the Illini being ready to go on the road to take on a frustrated Purdue team that has dominated them recently. This is the mother of all letdown spots for Illinois. Purdue has lost its quarterback, Elijah Sindelar, and star wide receiver Rondale Moore to injuries. However, backup QB Jack Plummer is showing steady improvement, the Boilermakers still have good receiving depth - including an excellent pass-catching tight end in Brycen Hopkins - and an edge in coaching with Jeff Brohm. Illinois could be missing its leading pass receiver, Ricky Smalling, and defensive end Oluwole Betiku, who ranks among the nation leaders in sacks. Both were injured against Wisconsin. The Boilermakers have beaten the Illini each of the last three years, including 46-7 on the road last season and 29-10 two years ago.
10-24-19	SMU v. Houston +14.5	Top	34-31	Win	100	18 h 24 m	Show
These are heady times for SMU. The Mustangs are 7-0 for the first time in 37 years and ranked 16th in the AP's Top 25 poll. That's the highest the Mustangs have been rated since 1985. The combination of that and the perception that Houston is a dead team after losing outright as 21-point road favorites to lowly Connecticut last week push this line to the two-touchdown mark. I'm stepping in at this point. Houston still has bowl aspirations. The Cougars also should get back QB Clayton Tune. He's a big upgrade on third-stringer Logan Holgorsen, who was behind center against Connecticut. Tune didn't play in that huge upset because of a hamstring injury. He is practicing this week and expected to play. The Cougars rank 22nd in rushing. They have the capability to play ball control preventing SMU's high octane offense from taking the field. This also is a big in-state rivalry and has recruting ramifications. The Cougars have revenge motivation, too. They were ranked 17th in the country when SMU beat them last season as 14-point home 'dogs.
10-21-19	Patriots v. Jets +10.5	Top	33-0	Loss	-130	121 h 7 m	Show
The Jets are a much different - and better - team with Sam Darnold at QB. They should be mentally ready to take on the Patriots off a confidence-building home victory against the Cowboys last week. Statistically speaking, the Patriots have the best defense in the NFL. Darnold has weapons, though, with Le'Veon Bell, deep threat Robbie Anderson and much underrated slot man Jamison Crowder. The Patriots' offense hasn't been that sharp. This has largely gone unnoticed because their defense has been so good and because of an easy schedule. New England, however, is banged up at wide receiver, deficient at tight end and weak at the offensive tackle spots. The Jets should be up for this game more than any other matchup all season being against their most hated division rival and at home on Monday night.
10-20-19	Eagles +3 v. Cowboys		10-37	Loss	-114	97 h 9 m	Show
Why the Eagles? Better team getting points especially with Dallas not playing well losing to the Jets and Packers, who scored the first 24 points in that game. The Cowboys are dealing with key injuries. Both of Dallas' starting offensive tackles have been out the last couple of weeks. The Cowboys rely on Ezekiel Elliott to produce yardage on the ground, but the Eagles rank second in run defense. Dak Prescott isn't that effective in the air without his top wideout, Amari Cooper, who isn't expected to play. The Cowboys also could be minus their top cornerback, Byron Jones. He's dealing with a hamstring injury. The Eagles, on the other hand, are getting healthier as several of their cornerbacks could play after being out. This has been a road series with the visitor covering 11 of the last 15 times.
10-20-19	Saints v. Bears -3		36-25	Loss	-120	93 h 15 m	Show
I want the Bears going for me at home having had two weeks to stew about their embarrassing loss to the Raiders in London. The Saints are overdue for a loss. They are 5-1 with an average winning margin of 4.8 points. They have outscored their opponents by just six points in six games. Teddy Bridgewater is a game manager. He needs weapons. Unfortunately for New Orleans, Alvin Kamara is dealing with an ankle injury that may cause him to miss this game if not limit his effectiveness. The Bears are in the argument for having the best defense in football. This also is an off-surface for the Saints, who play on turf indoors not outdoors on grass.
10-20-19	Raiders v. Packers -5		24-42	Win	100	90 h 47 m	Show
Kudos to the Raiders for maybe putting forth their best effort ever under Jon Gruden in upsetting the Bears two weeks ago in London. But I'm not sold on Oakland especially when playing away from home, which they will be doing for the fourth straight time. The Raiders are 3-8 SU, 4-7 ATS when not playing in Oakland under Gruden. It's easy to remember the Raiders' stirring performance across the pond. But earlier they were smashed, 34-14, by the Vikings on the road. Green Bay defeated the Vikings at home earlier this season. This is an early start time, too, for the Raiders. They are 1-6 SU and ATS the past seven times when playing at 10 a.m. PDT. All of those losses have been by at least seven points. Aaron Rodgers doesn't need Davante Adams to beat Oakland. Obviously it's a nice plus if Adams is over his toe injury that has caused him to miss the last two games. Rodgers, though, is an elite QB with a monster edge on Derek Carr, who is far more of a dink-and-dunker than gunslinger and lacks receiving weapons. Green Bay's defense is one of the most improved units in football ranking ninth in fewest points allowed. The Raiders average less than two sacks per game, are penalty prone and give up nearly 25 points a game.
10-20-19	Jaguars -4 v. Bengals		27-17	Win	100	9 h 18 m	Show
If the NFL draft were to take place today it would not be the Miami Dolphins picking first. Instead it would be the Bengals because they have the worst record in the NFL at 0-6. The Bengals aren't tanking, but they are as bad as Miami. Cincinnati ranks last in rushing and last in stopping the run. On top of this, the Bengals have cluster injury situations in their offensive line and secondary with both starting cornerbacks out. A.J. Green, their best wideout, remains sidelined. Some regard the Saints as the best team in the NFC. Yet the Jaguars were nearly a field goal favorite against New Orleans last week. The Jaguars are slightly more than a field goal favorite against the Bengals. Doesn't make sense. Yes, the Jaguars were home against the Saints. Cincinnati, though, has a minimal home field edge. The Jaguars have an above average defense. That's without star cornerback Jalen Ramsey, who missed the past three games. Ramsey getting traded could help the Jaguars' morale. He certainly won't be a distraction anymore. Jacksonville needs this game being two games out of first in the wide open AFC South Division. In their last five games, the Jaguars have defeated the Broncos and Titans while losing on the road to the Texans by one point and by seven to the Panthers. Jacksonville fell to the Saints by seven points at home last Sunday. The Jaguars are at their best when Leonard Fournette is gashing defenses. Fournette is having his best season averaging 5.1 yards a carry and ranking No. 2 in the AFC in rushing. The Bengals have allowed half of their opponents to rush for at least 250 yards. An effective Fournette sets up Gardner Minshew's play action passes. On top of all their injuries, the Bengals' defense carries a high fatigue rating. They were on the field for nearly 40 minutes and more than 80 snaps against the Ravens last week.
10-20-19	Cardinals v. Giants -3	Top	27-21	Loss	-100	90 h 46 m	Show
The Giants are home, have a huge scheduling advantage and get back Saquan Barkley and Evan Engram. Barkley is a top-three running back and I rate Engram as a top-five tight end. The Cardinals have a porous defense ranking among the bottom-four in several key statistical categories, including yards allowed, points and pass defense. The return of cornerback Patrick Peterson from suspension is a plus for the Cardinals, but doesn't move the needle nearly enough. The Cardinals are coming off a 34-33 home victory against the Falcons. The Cardinals achieved the victory when normally reliable veteran Matt Bryant missed an extra point after the Falcons scored a touchdown with less than two minutes left. The Cardinals nipped the Bengals at the gun on a field gun two weeks ago. The Falcons and Bengals are a combined 1-11. The spread would be much higher here if the Cardinals held a 0-5-1 mark instead of a far more respectable 2-3-1 record. This also is Arizona's longest trip of the season and it's at an early West Coast start time. The Cardinals are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 Eastern Standard Time games. The Giants are on extra rest having played last Thursday.
10-19-19	Kansas +21.5 v. Texas	Top	48-50	Win	100	32 h 50 m	Show
This line might make sense - it it were last year. Les Miles has made Kansas far more respectable. But even before Miles came on board the Jayhawks have given Texas trouble. The Longhorns defeated the Jayhawks, 24-17, last year failing to cover as 15 1/2-point road favorites. Texas beat Kansas by 15 points at home two seasons ago failing to cover as 32-point favorites and three years ago the Jayhawks stunned the Longhorns, 24-21, as 23 1/2-point home 'dogs. Kansas had a bye last week. The Jayhawks draw the Longhorns after Texas just had its annual Red River Shootout against arch-rival Oklahoma. The Longhorns are at TCU next week. So the spot clearly favors Kansas. Sam Ehlinger is one of the best QB's in the country. But I see the Jayhawks having the weapons to hang with Texas especially since the Longhorns have multiple defensive injuries. The Longhorns are giving up 453.3 yards per game, which ranks 111th. They have permitted an average of 31.6 points in their three Big 12 games. Kansas senior QB Carter Stanley ranks among the top 10 QB's statistically in Kansas history. He should be helped by a switch in offensive coordinators that has a more aggressive approach. Stanley has a pair of capable WR's in Andrew Parchment and Stephon Robinson Jr. plus one of the best running backs in the conference, Pooka Williams.
10-19-19	Central Michigan -10.5 v. Bowling Green		38-20	Win	100	26 h 51 m	Show
Central Michigan is playing its best ball with consecutive blowout victories against Eastern Michigan and New Mexico State. New Mexico State is a very bad team. So is Bowling Green. Don't look for the Chippewas to overlook Bowling Green, though. Not after the Falcons stunned Toldeo at home last Saturday winning 20-7 as 26 1/2-point 'dogs. That game was a total exception. Bowling Green is terrible on both sides of the ball. The Falcons had allowed four of their previous six opponents to score 35 or more points. They are 4-18 ATS in their last 22 home games. Bowling Green also is 1-6 ATS following a victory. Bowling Green had not beaten Toldeo, a rivalry matchup, since 2009. The Falcons' defense is weak especially against the run. Central Michigan has a balanced offense averaging 32.3 points. The Chippewas rank 51th in rushing while Bowling Green rates 111th in run defense yielding 208 yards on the ground per game. The Falcons also are 127th in scoring averaging a meager 15.5 points. Central Michigan has covered four of the last five times versus below .500 opponents.
10-19-19	Clemson v. Louisville OVER 61		45-10	Loss	-116	24 h 26 m	Show
Scott Satterfield is doing a miraculous job with Louisville. But he can't hide the Cardinals' pass defense woes. The Cardinals have allowed nearly 1,400 yards with 14 TD's during the last three weeks. Clemson buried Louisville, 77-16, last season. The score is going to be closer this time around, but the Cardinals won't be able to slow down the Tigers. The Tigers put up 45 points on Florid State last week. Travis Etienne is one of the best RB's in the country and the Tigers have maybe the best WR's in the nation. Trevor Lawrence is due to put up huge numbers. Louisville is putting up numbers close to Clemson on offense ranking 16th in yardage and 24th in scoring at 37.3 points a game. The Cardinals have scored 103 points during the past two weeks facing Boston College and Wake Forest. Their ground attack has churned out 200 yards in every game except one.
10-19-19	Florida -4.5 v. South Carolina		38-27	Win	100	24 h 8 m	Show
You can't hold it against South Carolina if the Gamecocks suffer a letdown here against a strong Florida team. South Carolina is coming off a monster upset of then third-ranked Georgia, 20-17, in double overtime last week. The Gators are looking to rebound following a 42-28 loss to third-ranked LSU. Florida had won 10 in a row until falling to the Tigers.The Gators still have a shot to reach the SEC title game, but they need to win here. Kyle Trask is playing better at QB and the Gators own the superior defense in this matchup. Florida was leading the nation in sacks until last week.
10-19-19	NC State v. Boston College +3.5		24-45	Win	100	24 h 1 m	Show
Boston College is 3-3, but 4-2 ATS, including 3-0 ATS as an underdog. The Eagles were idle last week. That has given more time to new QB Dennis Grosel, who replaces injured Anthony Brown. Grosel looked good in the Eagles' 41-39 road loss to Louisville two weeks ago when Brown was injured. NC State loves to blitz. The Eagles, however, have allowed just three sacks. The Wolfpack also are using a backup QB, Bailey Hockman. I prefer Grosel especially since he's backed by star RB AJ Dillon, who leads the ACC in rushing. NC State has failed to cover in its last four road games. The Wolfpacks are 1-5-1 ATS in their seven visits to BC.
10-18-19	UNLV v. Fresno State UNDER 53.5	Top	27-56	Loss	-110	19 h 18 m	Show
UNLV upset Vanderbilt, 34-10, on the road last Saturday. The Rebels accomplished this by playing tough defense and running the ball a season-high 53 times. Now, on a short week with less practice time, the Rebels figure to stay on the ground. Running plays keep the clock moving. Tony Sanchez is fighting to keep his job as UNLV head coach. He knows the Rebels are 7-3 the last 10 times they have run the ball 50 or more times. Prior to putting up 34 points against the Commodores, the Rebels averaged 15.2 points in their past four games. Fresno State ranks 49th in fewest yards allowed per game. The Rebels don't have a very good passing attack. I'm not impressed either with Fresno State QB Jorge Reyna. Bulldogs coach Jeff Tedford has developed a lot of good QB's. Reyna, though, isn't one of them. Fresno State's statistics are padded from having played games against Sacramento State and New Mexico State.
10-17-19	UCLA v. Stanford UNDER 51	Top	34-16	Win	100	19 h 28 m	Show
Youthful quarterbacks and underrated defenses help put me on the Under. I'm not overly fond of UCLA's quarterbacks. Sophomore Austin Burton could be in line to make his second start for the Bruins in place of Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who has a leg injury. The Bruins remain without perhaps their most talented wider receiver with Theo Howard out. If you discount their games against Washington State and Oregon State, the Bruins are averaging 14.7 points in their four other games. Stanford's defense has come on. The Cardinal have given up an average of 20.6 points in their last three games taking on Oregon, Oregon State and Washington. The Ducks and Huskies each have top-30 offenses while Oregon State ranks 48th in scoring. The Cardinal are expected go with sophomore Jack West at quarterback with K.J. Costello sidelined. Stanford also is starting three true freshmen on its offensive line. An inexperienced QB behind three-fifths of an inexperienced O-line usually isn't a good combination. I'm sure the Cardinal will play conservative, which is the style of their coach, David Shaw, and run the ball frequently with Cameron Scarlett. That will keep the clock moving.
10-13-19	Titans v. Broncos OVER 39		0-16	Loss	-109	98 h 28 m	Show
Unless you have a pair of dominant defenses going, this is a short total in the NFL these days with the rules skewed toward offense. Denver's defense is overrated. The Broncos have yielded at least 23 points in five of their last seven games. Denver is down Bradley Chubb and ranks 22nd in run defense. The Titans should have scored far more than seven points against the Bills last week. They had a touchdown called back and missed four field goals. Tennessee mercifully has a new kicker this week. Derrick Henry should be able to run on Denver, which in turn will make Marcus Mariota far more effective off play-action. I'm not a fan of Joe Flacco. But Denver's offense has shown more the past two games averaging 22 points during this span.
10-13-19	Cowboys v. Jets UNDER 45		22-24	Loss	-117	48 h 13 m	Show
The Jets rank last in yards and second-to-last in scoring. Maybe the oddsmaker believes their scoring will pick up with Sam Darnold set to go behind center for the first time since opening week after being felled by mononucleosis because this total seems high to me. Darnold is a major improvement on Luke Falk, who had no business ever starting an NFL game. But Darnold figures to be rusty and may not be 100 percent. This is just his second year in the NFL. He was inconsistent as a rookie. The Cowboys could be without their two starting offensive tackles, six-time Pro Bowl left tackle Tyron Smith and right tackle La'el Collins. I forsee a lot of running in this game, which eats up clock. The Jets heavily rely on Le'Veon Bell, who isn't such a superstar behind a sub-par offensive line. Dallas is going to feed Ezekiel Elliott.
10-13-19	49ers v. Rams -3	Top	20-7	Loss	-120	54 h 28 m	Show
The Rams are feeling heat from the Seahawks and 49ers having lost two in a row. So this becomes a crucial game. Sean McVay is the best coach in the NFC. Jared Goff has a history of playing much better at home. The 49ers are not used to taking on opponents who are extremely motivated to play them - until now. San Francisco is much improved as its 4-0 record attests. But do note those victories have come against the Buccaneers, Bengals, Steelers and Browns. The combined record of those teams is 5-15. LA is on extra rest having played last Thursday. The Rams are 7-1 ATS when having a rest advantage under McVay. The 49ers, on the other hand, are on a short week coming off a great Monday night home win against the Browns. Lost in the glare of the 49ers' dismantling of the Browns, though, was two key injuries - fullback Kyle Juszcyk and offensive right tackle Mike McGlinchey. Both are out long-term. Juszcyk may be the best fullback in the league. Compounding McGlinchey's injury is San Francisco already is minus star offensive left tackle Joe Staley. Aaron Donald should be in for a monster game. The Rams' defense isn't as down as some may perceive. LA's offense has been turning the ball over, which has put its defense in difficult field position. Jimmy Garoppolo doesn't have that much starting QB experience. He's going to face a heavy pass rush without his starting tackles. I don't see him keeping up with a high caliber Rams offense that should be well-designed with nine days to prepare under QB guru McVay. Todd Gurley may not play, but the Rams have two other good running backs. One of the keys to McVay's success has been a 10-3 division record. The 49ers are 2-10 against NFC West foes under Kyle Shanahan.

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