I don't see the Browns and rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden being able to keep up with the high octane Eagles offense.

The Browns are missing defensive tackle Phil Taylor and several of their linebackers. They are inexperienced on offense. Weeden had trouble handling the speed of the pro game during preseason along with lacking NFL pocket presence and had accuracy issues. The Browns are counting on another rookie, Trent Richardson, to shore up their offense. But Richardson didn't get any preseason reps because his knee was scoped. He may only see limited duty.

The Eagles were a lot better than their record last season. They ranked in the top 10 offensively and defensively and were playing much better down the stretch. The Eagles have way too many weapons for the limited Browns defense to handle.

Cleveland hasn't been very good at home going 2-8-2 ATS in its last 12 home contests. The Browns also have historically been disappointing on opening day losing their past seven openers while going 0-6-1 ATS.

The two teams met in a preseason game a little more than two weeks ago. The Eagles easily won, 27-10. The key about that game was the Eagles' backups out-played the Browns starters. The Eagles bothered Weeden anytime they brought pressure even though they were being somewhat vanilla. It's going to be worse now for Weeden.

Those who bet early on Houston have the best of the number. This number has really steamed since opening just minus seven. Still, the Texans are worth a unit laying double-digits as they will beat the Dolphins by at least two touchdowns.

Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson are healthy giving the Texans an excellent passing attack to go with one of the best ground games in football. The Dolphins were decent defensively last year, but have retooled their defense so growing pains are going to occur.

Miami's real problems, though, are going to be on offense where Ryan Tannehill is set to make his NFL debut. He's going to make it on the road against one of the best defenses in the league. The Texans just may have the best front seven in football. Even losing Mario Williams in free-agency, they still have five dangerous pass rushers in J.J. Watt, Brian Cushing, Brooks Reed, Connor Barwin and rookie Whitney Mercilus. The Dolphins are likely to be without their best protector, left tackle Jake Long.

Making things even worse for Tannehill is the Dolphins lack good skill position players. They may have the weakest set of receivers in the AFC. Miami's wide receivers can't get open and they can't catch. Tannehill won't be able to handle the Texans' defensive speed and he has no one to rely on or bail him out.

Houston has been very good in a favorite's role going 8-3-1 ATS the past 12 times it has been chalk.

The Lions put up 44 points on the Rams two years ago at home and they are better offensively now with Matthew moving into elite status and Calvin Johnson being the undisputed top wide receiver in the NFL.

The Rams are breaking in five new defensive front seven players and also have two rookie starters in their secondary. The Rams also have a rookie punter.

It wouldn't be shocking at all for Detroit to put another 44 points on the Rams. The Rams should be able to help out with the over, too, taking advantage of the Lions' already vulnerable secondary probably missing two starters.

Sam Bradford should revert back to his rookie form of two years ago when he played much better than last year with a healthy and rejuvenated Steven Jackson in the backfield and his top possession wideout, Danny Amendola, back after being out last season.

No coach is better than Bill Belichick with extra preparation time. The Patriots are 8-0 in their first game of the season during the past eight years. Belichick can really concentrate on this matchup since the Patriots host lowly Arizona next week.

New England is going to be much improved defensively. Belichick is going to throw a lot of different looks at inexperienced Jake Locker and he now has better chess pieces in which to maneuver. Locker brings more excitement to Tennessee's offense than over-the-hill Matt Hasselbeck, but he's not nearly as accurate as Locker.

The Titans aren't going to be able to keep up with New England's high-powered offense. The Patriots averaged more than 30 points per game during their first five games last year and Tom Brady has a better wide receiving target to pair with Wes Welker in Brandon Lloyd. The Titans lack the pass rushing skills to disrupt Brady.

New England should be better on the ground, too, with Stevan Ridley showing improvement. He's faster, slicker and more of a pass-catching threat than the Patriots' main ballcarrier from last season, plodding Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis.

The oddsmaker isn't at his sharpest opening week and it showed with this line. The Lions will beat the Rams by double-digits.

Jeff Fisher is under no pressure to turn around the Rams right away. It's going to be a long-term thing and ownership knows that. The Rams have 31 new players.

Matchup-wise, this game is a nightmare for the Rams. They have a rebuilt defensive front seven and two rookies in the secondary. Growing pains are evident. They have no one who can remotely guard Calvin Johnson. Matthew Stafford is a top-five quarterback when playing at home. He should have no problem lighting up a porous Rams defense.

The Lions have covered 11 of their last 16 home games, while the Rams are 1-9 ATS during their past 10 road contests.

The Lions hosted the Rams two years ago and won, 44-6. So what has changed? The Lions have improved as Stafford has become an elite quarterback while the Rams are still rebuilding.

Both teams covered in Week 1 as double-digit road underdogs. But the scores were misleading, Wyoming actually led Texas early and played the Longhorns tough in a 37-17 loss. Brett Smith is one of the best underclass quarterbacks in the country and he threw for 276 yards and two touchdowns going 16-for-28 against the Longhorns. Wyoming was out-gained by less than 100 yards.

Toledo lost in overtime to Arizona, 24-17. However, the Rockets were out-gained by 266 yards. The Wildcats piled up 624 yards on the Rockets averaging 5.8 yards per rush and 8.2 yards per pass. The Wildcats, however, fumbled inside the 10 and had two touchdowns called back. They also missed two short field goals.

Toledo surrendered 32 points per game last season and its defense doesn't look any better this season. Smith is in line for a big game.

This also is a horrendous situational spot for Toledo. The Rockets had to fly back into the Midwest from the desert after playing in overtime last Saturday night and now have to make another long trip with this game being played in the mountains in high altitude. It's a tough spot for any coach, especially for Matt Campbell. He's the Rockets' new head coach and the youngest head coach.

The Rockets may just mail this one in as they have a much more important game on deck when they play their first home game and first MAC game versus rival Bowling Green.

This is a terrible spot for Notre Dame. Yes, the Irish are home. But this is just a week after Notre Dame, along with 35,000 of its fans, traveled 3,621 miles to Dublin, Ireland to watch the Irish destroy Navy, 50-10.

It takes close to a week to recover from jet lag. That's why the NFL almost always gives a bye to those teams who play in Great Britain the week before. This isn't the case with Notre Dame, which is facing a respectable Big Ten school in Purdue.

The Irish still have suspensions to key players. Quarterback Everett Golson is set to make his second career start for Notre Dame. The Irish are 6-13 ATS when playing following a victory of 20 or more points.

Notre Dame also has a look-ahead situation playing at Michigan State in its next game followed by Michigan. The Irish very well could look past Purdue, a team they beat for the fourth consecutive time last year by 28 points. The Irish have covered just 34 percent of the time the last 45 times they've been a home favorite.

Purdue is more than capable of pulling the outright upset. The Boilermakers knocked off Ohio State last season and are more seasoned and healthier this year. Purdue also gets back starting quarterback fifth-year senior Caleb Terbush, who missed the Boilersmakers' impressive 48-6 opening-week victory against Eastern Kentucky because of a one-game suspension for violating team rules.

Robert Marve had his most impressive performance for the Boilermakers in that game since transferring from Miami four years ago as a highly touted player. Marve threw for 295 yards and three touchdowns while completing 30 of 38 passes. The veteran Purdue quarterbacks are helped by having seven other returning starters back on offense.

I'm looking for Michigan to rebound in a big way following its embarrassing loss to Alabama.

Air Force is inexperienced, undersized and doesn't have nearly the athletes and talent Michigan has. The Falcons' inexperience really is going to hurt them playing in this road venue with the Wolverines out for redemption and to repair their psyche after last week.

Despite the Alabama loss, Michigan is still 9-3 ATS in its last 12 non-league games. The Wolverines get back their best running back, Fitzgerald Toussaint, who was suspended against Alabama.

Air Force's strength is its unorthodox offense. However, Michigan coach Brady Hoke is well-acquainted with the Falcons having been the head coach at San Diego State before coming to Michigan.

Penn State is just Penn State in name only. The Nittany Lions are just a shell of what they once were and the marketplace is right to steam an up-and-coming Virginia squad.

Virginia has a deep running attack and quarterback Michael Roccol looked good in the Cavaliers' easy 43-19 victory against Richmond last week. Penn State gave up 175 yards on the ground to Ohio in its loss last week. That's a telling stat for this matchup.

Penn State has already lost five offensive starters since the off-season and its defense didn't look as good as thought.

Even before the Jerry Sandusky sex scandal broke, the Nittany Lions were showing cracks. They are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 non-league games, 2-7-1 ATS during their past 10 road contests and 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 overall games.

This game sets up well for Mississippi State, which is desperate to beat Auburn especially at home after coming so close each of the last two years.

The Bulldogs have the skill position people and the defensive line and linebackers to match up well against the Tigers.

Auburn is off a tough, blown fourth-quarter loss to Clemson. The Tigers were shredded for 528 yards by Clemson, which was without its best receiver, Sammy Watkins.

The Tigers have covered only once in their last five road games. This will mark the first true road start for Auburn sophomore quarterback Kiehl Frazier. He'll be facing a tough secondary.

Mississippi State is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games and has been pointing to this matchup for a long time. The Bulldogs had an easy tuneup against Jackson State last week, winning 56-9.

It's easy to understand why early money has poured in on Cincinnati for this matchup. Pittsburgh is off an embarrassing 31-17 loss to Youngstown State, an FCS team.

Are the Panthers really that bad? My answer is no. The Panthers were missing a number of key players who were suspended for that game. They had eight players making their college football debut. Youngstown State also is a decent team and treated the game far more serious than Pittsburgh. The Panthers may have been caught looking ahead to this much more important nationally televised Big East matchup.

Cincinnati has yet to play so the Panthers have an edge of already having played a game. The Panthers also have back Ray Graham, one of the top running backs in the country who was injured last season.

I am not high on Cincinnati's starting quarterback, Munchie Legaux.

The Panthers have covered six of the last seven meetings against the Bearcats.

Dallas would have a tough time beating the Giants on the road if it was healthy. Unfortunately for the Cowboys, they are not close to being healthy.

There's a strong possibility Dallas could be missing star nose tackle Jay Ratliff and cornerback Mike Jenkins. On offense, Tony Romo could be without his two best possession receiving targets - Jason Witten and Miles Austin.

Dallas' offensive line hasn't been looking good, which is another concern especially facing one of the best pass rushing defensive lines in the NFL. Last year, the Giants sacked Tony Romo nine times in two games.

The Cowboys have failed to cover during their last six division games and have had trouble stopping Eli Manning. Last year, Manning threw for 746 yards and five touchdowns. Now he goes against a revamped youthful Cowboy secondary that has promise, but is short on experience at the corners and will be vulnerable in this spot.

The Giants swept Dallas last year, including winning by 17 points at home, and have covered five of the last six in the series.

Louisville is an emerging power under Charlie Strong. Kentucky had won the last four in this series until last year when Louisville won, 24-17, on the road. The Cardinals are better this season with star quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, the Big East's Rookie of the Year, bigger and more mature.

Kentucky is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine road games and is going to go through growing pains, especially on defense, during the early part of its schedule. The Wildcats return only two of their top seven tacklers. Louisville, on the other hand, has nine defensive starters returners. Strong has build a formidable defense the past couple of years at Louisville. Kentucky averaged just 15 points and 168 yards per game last season with one of the worst offenses.

The Cardinals closed last season covering seven of their last nine. They also have covered 70 percent of their last 19 non-conference matchups.

Early money has poured in on Washington. The move is right. The Huskies should beat rebuilding San Diego State by more than two touchdowns.

The Aztecs have covered just twice in their last 12 games versus Pac-12 competition and are not equipped to hang in against the Huskies and their outstanding quarterback, Keith Price.

Price threw a school-record 33 touchdown passes last year. He out-played Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin III in the Alamo Bowl. He's the second-best quarterback in the Pac-12 next to Matt Barkley.

San Diego State doesn't have the offensive personnel to trade points with the Huskies and their big-time passing attack. Not after losing star quarterback Ryan Lindley and running back Ronnie Hillman. The Aztecs are short on depth and already have injury concerns. They must replace nearly their defensive front seven.

The Huskies know how vital it is to beat San Diego State. It's one of the few easy early-season games they have. The Huskies have one of the most difficult first-half schedules of any team in the country taking on LSU, Stanford, Oregon and Southern Cal all within the first six weeks. This is a game they need to win - and win big to get their momentum and confidence going.

Boston College went 4-8 last season, its worst record since 1998. The Eagles look to have more problems this season with a weak offense, not having career tackles-leader linebacker Luke Kuechly and already suffering numerous injuries, including one to star tight end Chris Pantale, who suffered a broken foot in practice.

The Eagles have four new offensive assistants, including a new offensive coordinator. Losing Pantale really hurts. The Eagles also don't have one-time star running back Montel Harris, who transferred.

Boston College has covered just three of its last 14 home games. Miami has covered during its last four road games and is anxious to get past their off-the-field distractions. The Hurricanes possess a strong talent edge in this matchup. They also have a powerful revenge motive.

Boston College played one of its better games in beating Miami, 24-17, last season. It was the season finale and the loss kept Miami from finishing above .500. The Hurricanes out-gained Boston College, but lost the turnover battle, 4-1, as the now departed Jacory Harris threw four interceptions.

The Hurricanes were hurt in that game, too, by Boston College putting five of its punts inside the 20-yard line. The Hurricanes were the better team last year and they are superior again to Boston College this season.

Paul Rhoads has done a nice job at Iowa State taking the Cyclones to a bowl game twice during his three years. This should be Rhoads' best team.

The Cyclones have excellent linebackers, a deep defensive line, an experienced secondary, a solid ground attack and good special teams.

Iowa State plays in a much stronger conference than Tulsa and has covered the past five times it has been an underdog. The Cyclones are 21-10 ATS in September.

Tulsa is breaking in a new quarterback with all-conference signal-caller G.J. Kinne graduating. This is a very tough opener for the Golden Hurricane going on the road into a Big 12 stadium with a new quarterback while breaking in three new offensive line starters. The jury remains out on Cody Green, Tulsa's new quarterback.

Iowa State is underrated. Considering the questions Tulsa faces, I see the Cyclones beating the Golden Hurricane at home with their solid experienced defense and a running attack that will steadily move the chains.

Even without star wide receiver Da'Rick Rogers, Tennessee has way too much speed for North Carolina State. The Volunteers' speed will be amplified playing on turf in the Georgia Dome.


Rogers was booted off the Volunteers. The Volunteers lose a top talent, but gain in chemistry as Rogers was missing practices and hurting morale. Justin Hunter, a top pro prospect, is even better than Rogers. Hunter suffered a torn ACL during the third game last season, but is fully healthy now. The Volunteers have excellent depth at wide receiver.


North Carolina State has failed to cover the past four times it has played on carpet. Tennessee is 7-2-1 ATS the past 10 times it has been favored.


Last year, Tennessee beat Cincinnati, 45-23. Two weeks later, North Carolina State played Cincinnati and lost, 44-14.

Look for the Hall of Fame combination of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick to get it done. The Patriots still feel the sting of being upset by the Giants in the Super Bowl four years ago when they were 18-0.

Certainly the Giants will be just as motivated as New England, but there will be zero chance of the Patriots not fully respecting the Giants.

My pick isn't based on anything negative against the Giants. I like Tom Coughlin, Eli Manning has had a great year and the Giants' defense got hot late when their outstanding front line became full healthy.

As good as Manning has been this season, he's still trumped by Brady. Brady is in the highest tier of quarterbacks with Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees. He broke Dan Marino's yardage mark this season with 5,239 yards while also throwing 39 touchdown passes.

Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz were the only teammates to each have more than 1,000 yards in receiving. But the Patriots were the only team to have three players with more than 900 receiving yards - Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.

The Patriots don't have the Giants' receiving speed at the flanks, but Gronkowski and Hernandez are hybrid tight ends who will cause the Giants major matchup problems. So will Welker with his quick slants across the middle. Brady can beat the Giants' excellent pass rush with these quick, timing plays that have been honed to perfection. He's far less likely to be sacked five times like he was when the Giants upset the Patriots in the 2007 Super Bowl when Randy Moss downfield was his major target.

Brady can take full advantage of a Giants secondary that yielded 4,082 yards through the air. Only three teams allowed more.

Gronkowski is redefining the tight end position breaking the single-season record at the position for touchdowns with 17 and hauling in 15 passes for 232 yards and three touchdowns during the Patriots' two playoff victories.

The Giants have been performing better than any team, but the extra week off is going to slow their momentum. I like Belichick more than any other coach when given extra time to prepare.

New England's defense isn't as bad as perceived. Yes, the Patriots surrendered lots of yardage. But they were 15th in fewest points, 14th in sacks and had 34 takeaways. Only two teams had more takeaways.

In this day and age in the NFL offense trumps defense. The Giants have the superior quarterback, much better wide receivers, a dominant pass rush and loads of momentum.

This will prove enough to overcome the 49ers, who are inexperienced in playoff games and still walking on air after last week's tremendous victory against New Orleans.

Alex Smith played the finest game of his career versus the Saints last week. I don't see Smith duplicating that effort. He hasn't thrown for 300 yards all season and his wide receivers are barely adequate. The Giants will be paying full attention to tight end Vernon Davis, the 49ers' lone legitimate receiving threat.

Lost in the glare of the 49ers' great win against the Saints was the fact that Drew Brees threw four touchdown passes and shredded San Francisco's perceived great defense for 462 yards.

The 49ers just nipped the Saints in the final nine seconds despite a plus 4 turnover advantage. Now the 49ers do have an NFL-best plus 28 turnover ratio and it's not a fluke because their defense hits hard, but it's highly doubtful the 49ers are going to have a big turnover edge on the Giants.

If Eli Manning isn't an elite quarterback, he's close. He threw for nearly 5,000 yards. Manning is a proven commodity in the playoffs, too, with a 4-1 postseason road record with a 9-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in those games.

The 49ers are extremely tough to run on, but their secondary isn't that strong. The few times the 49ers faced good quarterbacks they gave up big chunks of yardage. This was the case against Tony Romo, Michael Vick, Matthew Stafford and Manning. The 49ers were fortunate to draw the Steelers when Ben Roethlisberger was hobbled.

Manning has the NFL's best wide receiving tandem - Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz - to throw to. The Giants' ground attack has picked up, too, with the return to health of Ahmad Bradshaw. The Giants are 21-4 when Bradshaw rushes for 60 or more yards.

The Giants are playing the best football in the league steamrolling the Jets, Cowboys, Falcons and Packers in do-or-die matchups. No team can match their defensive line when it comes to pass rushing. The Giants have recorded six sacks and 12 hits on the quarterback in their two playoff games.

While the Giants were winning must-win games against tough opponents, the 49ers were sailing through the weak NFC West. Before defeating the Saints, the 49ers had played the Rams, Seattle, beat-up Pittsburgh, Arizona and St. Louis.

First let's talk about the weather. It's not going to be as dire as some are predicting. There is a 40 percent chance of rain, but temperatures are going to be in the 50s and the wind won't be more than 10 mph at the absolute worst.

A slick field, by the way, hurts the pass rush of both teams.

We have a history between these two teams. They played on Nov. 11 at San Francisco and there was 47 points scored with the 49ers winning, 27-20. Ahmad Bradshaw didn't play, which impacted the Giants' ground attack. Still, Eli Manning threw for 311 yards and two touchdowns.

The 49ers' pass defense has proven vulnerable to the few top quarterbacks they've gone again such as Manning. They surrendered 416 yards to Michael Vick, 345 yards to Tony Romo and 293 to Matthew Stafford. All three of those quarterbacks threw two touchdown passes against the 49ers.

This was during the regular season. In their one postseason game, the 49ers yielded four touchdowns and 462 yards to Drew Brees and the Saints. Against these four elite quarterbacks, the 49ers gave up an average of 24.2 points.

Alex Smith is off his finest game as a pro. Smith proved dangerous not only with his arm against the Saints last week, but with his legs, too, running for a key 28-yard touchdowns. The Giants gave up 66 yards on the ground to Aaron Rodgers on just seven carries.

The 49ers have a strong ground attack spearheaded by Frank Gore to keep New York's star pass rushers at bay.

It takes 20 points from each team to ensure an over. That shouldn't be a problem. Keep in mind that with a short spread range overtime is more of a possibility than normal.

The Patriots absolutely crush Tim Tebow and Denver, while Baltimore fails to cover against Houston and its third-string rookie quarterback.

What does it mean? An inflated pointspread that's what.

Tom Brady is having another magnificent year. But as the Saints and Packers found out the hard way last week a great quarterback can't compensate for a weak defense at the upper level playoff stage.

New England ranked 31st in total defense and passing yards. The Patriots' defense can't compare to Baltimore's defense. The Ravens have a much stronger pass rush and secondary. They gave up nearly 2,000 fewer yards than the Patriots. That's mind-boggling. So is the fact that Baltimore surrendered 1.6 yards less per pass and 1.1 yards less per run than the Patriots.

Still, the oddsmaker is swayed by Brady and the marketplace to make the Patriots a strong touchdown or more favorite.

This is a slap in the face to the Ravens. During the John Harbaugh era, the Ravens have won playoff games at four different road sites. This includes a 33-14 victory against the Patriots at Foxboro just two years ago. They also have covered 88 percent of the time during the Harbaugh years when getting 7 1/2 or more points.

The Ravens aren't fancy, but they are very solid. Joe Flacco has passed for more than 3,600 yards each of the last three seasons, Ray Rice is one of the best all-purpose backs in football and Anquan Boldin is one of the league's better possession wide receivers.

Baltimore's defense ranked in the top four in all the major statistical categories, including third in fewest points at 16.6 and in total yards at 288.9. The Ravens also won all seven games they played this season versus playoff teams.

The only playoff teams the Patriots went up against besides the bogus Broncos were the Steelers and Giants. New England lost both of those games.

Aside from Brady and tight end Rob Gronkowski, the Patriots don't have any big stars. Their running backs are mediocre, they lack speed at wide receiver and their offensive line is banged-up.

The Ravens have the coaching, playoff experience, veteran leadership, top runner and outstanding defense to hang in against the Patriots if not win straight-up just like they did two years ago.

Kudos to the Houston Texans for winning the AFC South and making the playoffs for the first time in franchise history. Taking out Cincinnati in the first-round was a bonus.

But now the Texans have gone as far as they can possibly go with 12 players on injured reserve and being led by limited third-string rookie quarterback T.J. Yates.

Just once has Baltimore lost at home during the past two seasons in going 15-1 at M&T Bank Stadium. Make no mistake, this is a strong home field advantage, especially when a rookie quarterback has to face the Ravens in Baltimore.

Yates has thrown just four touchdown passes in his six starts. The Texans are 3-3 in these starts. They rely on a solid defense and a top-notch ground attack spearheaded by Arian Foster and Ben Tate.

Baltimore has an excellent run defense, though, particularly at home where it has yielded an average of just 83 yards on the ground and only three rushing touchdowns. Foster is going to be constantly looking at a stacked front line.

Yates is going to have to make downfield plays for the Texans to have a chance - and I don't see that happening. Yates doesn't have the experience and is going against too good of a defense at one of the toughest road venues in the league. Yates also is playing with a separated left shoulder.

The Ravens have allowed an average of 16 points at home during the past two seasons. Their defensive intensity, intimidation and blitzing all goes way up at home. Yates was sacked every 6.3 times he tried to throw when opponents blitzed. Only Chicago's pathetic backup quarterback Caleb Hanie had a worst percentage. The Ravens had 48 sacks during the season, with 68 percent of them coming at home.

Baltimore already has defeated four playoff teams at home this season - the Steelers, Texans, Bengals and 49ers. The Ravens held those four opponents to an average of 13 points.

The Ravens defeated the Texans, 29-14, in Week 6 when the Texans still had starting quarterback Matt Schaub. The Ravens held the Texans to less than 300 yards of offense, including 93 on the ground. The Ravens have never lost to the Texans in five lifetime meetings.

It's not just Baltimore's defense that is better at home. Ray Rice and Joe Flacco also are much better at M&T Bank Stadium. Rice averages 132 yards rushing at home and 1 1/2 touchdowns per home game.

Flacco has a 4-3 playoff record. Those games have all been on the road. Now he's finally home and will have veteran wideout Anquan Boldin available. Flacco has fired seven touchdown passes during his last four home contests.

The Texans' defense is going to get worn down from carrying what's become a one-dimensional offense that failed to score more than 22 points during their last six regular-season games with Yates at the control.

The Ravens are well-rested and will be fully prepared. Under John Harbaugh, the Ravens have gone 4-0 following a bye during the regular season with all four of those victories coming by 15 or more points.

Look, I'm just not sold on the 49ers. Yes, they had a great regular season with a strong defense.

But they don't have enough offense to keep up with the Saints.

The Saints would be vulnerable in this matchup if they were one-dimensional and if there were going to be weather issues. Neither is the case, though. The Saints actually have a strong ground attack with four quality runners and the weather is going to be nice with temperatures in the 60s and no rain.

Just because the Saints are great indoors at home doesn't mean they can't produce on a grass field. Drew Brees is too hot and has too many weapons for the 49ers to shut down New Orleans.

The Saints are averaging 34.2 points a game. They've only lost the ball 19 times, which was the fourth-fewest in the league. A large part of San Francisco's success was tying for first in takeaways with 38.

Brees is playing his finest ball, which is saying a lot. He has a 17-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last four games. His quarterback rating in outdoor games was still above 100 percent.

Note, too, the Saints are 12-4 outdoors during the last three seasons.

The Saints have won nine in a row with seven of those victories coming by 11 or more points. They have produced at least 42 points during their last four games.

The 49ers can't come close to matching that. Sure San Francisco's defense is much better than Detroit's and Atlanta's - two playoff teams the Saints beat during the last four weeks - but it's strength is run defense not pass defense.

New Orleans has far more big-game experience, too, than San Francisco. The 49ers aren't as battle tested playing in a far easier conference. The 49ers' last five games were two matchups against the Rams, Seahawks, Cardinals and Steelers with a hobbled Ben Roethlisberger.

The Saints' defense is adept at blitzing. The 49ers are vulnerable when forced to pass. They gave up 44 sacks, seventh-highest in the league.

New Orleans has enough edges, including a major one at quarterback, to win by more than a field goal.

Nick Saban pointed it out himself saying the BCS National Championship Game could play out entirely different than when Alabama and LSU met earlier this season.

There were only 15 points scored in that matchup, including overtime.

Yes, both teams have great defenses. They also have outstanding players on offense.

I do see things playing out differently in this rematch, enough at least to get over the total.

Alabama averages 36 points a game. LSU averages 38.5 points per game. The Crimson Tide could have the most talented running back in the country in Trent Richardson. He's hot, too, having run for 505 yards in his last three games. Richardson accounted for 1,910 yards from scrimmage this season and 23 touchdowns.

LSU has the 17th-best ground attack in the country and two decent quarterbacks, which Alabama has to prepare for each one. The Tigers also have one of the most dangerous punt returners in the country, Tyrann Mathieu. He averages more than 16 yards a return.

Games usually play out higher than expected when Alabama is in a bowl game. The over has cashed during Alabama's past five bowl appearances. LSU has gone over in its last four neutral site games. LSU also is 5-1-1 to the over in its last SEC matchups.

Keep in mind, too, that overtime is more of a possibility than usual as this is a pick'em type matchup.

I know some team has to represent the AFC West in the playoffs, but Denver being in is an absolute joke.

The Tim Tebow magic is long gone. There are at least 22 teams better than the Broncos.

In the last three games, the Broncos have averaged 13.3 points. They managed that puny total against the Patriots, Bills and Chiefs.

Now Denver is looking at an elite defense: Pittsburgh. The Steelers give up the fewest points and yards. They are tops against the pass and rank in the top 10 in run defense.

The line opened much lower than I thought because Pittsburgh is banged-up. Rashard Mendenhall is out and Ben Roethlisberger has a bad ankle. Still, Roethlisberger on one leg is far better than a healthy Tebow. The Steelers also have the much better receiving corps with game-breakers Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown.

Roethlisberger's injury gets the attention, but the Broncos also have several key injuries. They could be down to their third string guard with starter Chris Kuper definitely out. Fullback Spencer Larsen is hurt as is safety Brian Dawkins their most experienced defensive back and leader of their secondary.

The Broncos' defense is worn down from having to carry such a weak offense for so long. Star rookie linebacker Von Miller hasn't had a sack during the last three weeks.

The Steelers are playoff tested having gone 9-2 SU and ATS in the postseason since 2005. The Broncos last made the playoffs in 2005. Pittsburgh has covered 10 of its last 11 January games.

The Steelers hold every edge except home-field advantage. But that certainly can't save Denver. The Steelers are at least two-touchdowns better no matter where this game is played.

Forget about previous seasons and any old sayings about how you should never go over a total this high in the NFL.

Not that there ever was a higher playoff total than this Lions-Saints over/under.

But this is the new NFL where passing and offense reign supreme and the past means nothing.

Defense is trumped by offense not visa versa anymore and neither Detroit nor New Orleans have much of a defense.

But both possess great offenses thanks to Drew Brees and Matthew Stafford. Brees threw for 5,476 yards and 46 touchdowns. Stafford was right behind him passing for 5,038 yards and 41 touchdowns, including a 14-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last four games. Still think this is your dad's NFL?

I expect this total to hit 60. So what. The Saints average 41.1 points at home. Detroit should be good for at least three touchdowns. There's 62 points right there.

The Lions' defensive front four can apply heat. The Saints, however, were tied for second in fewest sacks. Detroit has injuries in its secondary and its linebackers are weak in coverage. Brees isn't going to miss a beat in carving up the Lions.

Lions coach Jim Schwartz has been forced to use more zone coverage due to his team's defensive backfield injuries. There isn't a defense that can fully stop Brees, but this type of defense is even more vulnerable to New Orleans' high-powered attack.

Marques Colston is brilliant in finding holes in the zone. There's also no better tight end in the NFC than Jimmy Graham in exploiting zone defenses by catching passes in the middle of the field. If Brees can't find a downfield receiver he still has a dangerous receiving weapon out of the backfield in Darren Sproles.

The Lions have to respect the Saints' ground game, too. New Orleans has a very underrated ground attack. The Saints could have the deepest set of quality of running backs in the NFL with Pierre Thomas, Sproles, Mark Ingram and Chris Ivory. The Lions give up five yards per carry.

Detroit is going to get its points, too, with Stafford and the unstoppable Calvin Johnson, who led the NFL in receiving yards with 1,681 and in touchdown receptions with 16.

This line is climbing higher and higher on Arkansas.

That's fine because I like Kansas State. So I'm getting off here and taking the inflated number.

The Big 12 Conference has proven strong this bowl season with Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Missouri, Baylor and Texas all winning.

Kansas State has been a pointspread monster covering nine of 12 times. The Wildcats won an unprecedented six times straight-up as a 'dog this season. They have been underrated all season. This is just another example.

I'm not has high on the SEC as others. Yes, LSU and Alabama are the two best teams in the country. But the SEC isn't as strong as past years once you get past those two monsters, especially on the bottom.

Kansas State has seen strong passing attacks so they will be prepared for Arkansas. Don't forget, too, the Razorbacks lost their best running back before the season even started in Knile Davis.

The Wildcats' only losses came to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, both of whom rose to No. 2 in the country at one point of the season. Arkansas isn't in that lofty class.

Kansas State can play keep away because of the running ability of quarterback Collin Kleim, who rushed for 1,099 yards and 26 touchdowns. The Wildcats ranked 25th nationally in rushing at 193.7 yards per game.

The record shows two losses. But Wisconsin may very well be the best team in college football. Getting this many points is just a gift because the Badgers are more balanced than Oregon and play more fundamentally sound on defense. They also have Rose Bowl experience having just played in Pasadena, Calif. last year.

Wisconsin lost a heart-breaker to Michigan State in a game that was headed to overtime with the Badgers holding all the momentum. Still suffering the pangs of that devastating defeat, the Badgers then lost to Ohio State the following week on another lucky Hail Mary pass. The Badgers avenged their loss to Michigan State in the Big Ten title game.

Having this much preparation time is a plus for the Badgers since they can game-plan against Oregon's option attack. Darren Thomas isn't the passer Russell Wilson is.

The Badgers have been great on the ground again this season. Montee Ball could have won the Heisman. He led the nation in touchdowns with 38. The Badgers rushed for at least 200 yards versus six of eight bowl opponents they faced.

Wilson also could have captured the Heisman. He completed 72.5 percent of his throws for 2,879 yards with a remarkable 31-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Wilson has thrown 139 straight passes without an interception.

Wisconsin has covered 73 percent of the time during its last 20 games.

Oregon has an explosive offense, but it's defense isn't at the physical level of Wisconsin's. While the quarterback play was extremely high in the Pac-12 the overall quality was down. The Ducks surrendered a combined 68 points and 862 yards to Stanford and Southern Cal. They also yielded 40 points to LSU during Week 1 when the Tigers had ample time to prepare.

Both teams faced one common opponent - Oregon State. The Badgers beat the Beavers by 35 points while Oregon won by 28 points.

The wheels are coming off for overachieving Denver and Tim Tebow.

In the last two weeks, the Broncos have lost by 18 points to New England at home and by 26 to Buffalo, which had lost seven in a row.

Defenses have figured out Tebow and the Broncos' lopsided reliance on the run. The Chiefs have recent exposure on Tebow having lost to the Broncos, 17-10, in Week 10. They will be ready for him.

The Chiefs have excellent cornerbacks who can cover one-on-one leaving the rest of their defense to key on Tebow and Willis McGahee.

If you discount a 35-point effort in the dome against Minnesota, the Broncos are averaging just 16.6 points in their last six games.

The Chiefs are motivated to win for popular interim coach Romeo Crennel, especially Kyle Orton. He was waived by Denver last month after being the Broncos' starter for nearly 2 1/2 seasons.

Kansas City's offense has been much better since Orton became its starter two games ago putting up 438 and 435 yards of offense.

Denver's defense is worn down from bailing out its offense and the Broncos' secondary is young and banged-up.

The youthful Broncos are not used to pressure situations like this having not made the playoffs since 2005.

The Raiders own the better record, but the Chargers are the better team.

The question here comes down to motivation and poise. Oakland wins the AFC West with a victory. The Chargers are out of it.

It's highly likely this is Norv Turner's last game as Chargers coach. Turner has been miscast as a head coach, but his players like him. They will play hard for him. There also is no love lost between the Chargers and the Raiders, who beat San Diego in Week 10, 24-17.

The Chargers have the firepower to beat the Raiders. The Chargers also can win by the Raiders giving them the game. I don't trust or like Oakland in a must-win type of spot. The Raiders have failed to cover 14 of the last 18 times they've been a home favorite.

The Raiders are undisciplined and don't take care of the football. Carson Palmer has 15 interceptions in nine games. The Raiders are probably going to break the NFL season-record for penalties and penalty yards.

Oakland hasn't been able to stop great passers this month getting rocked by Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford. Philip Rivers is an elite quarterback.

The Chargers have been a strong December team under Turner winning 12 of the last 14 times. San Diego blew out Baltimore, Buffalo and Jacksonville before losing last week on the road against the Lions.

The Raiders have been outgained by 268 yards on the season. They have allowed 44 more first downs. San Diego, on the other hand, has outgained its foes by 801 yards and has made 51 more first downs.

I like the Ravens to cover this short number. I'm not saying the Ravens don't have flaws. They certainly do. Joe Flacco isn't very accurate, the team hasn't performed well on the road and special teams aren't great.

But the Ravens are a legitimate playoff team and Super Bowl contender. Cincinnati is not. The Bengals are more about overachieving than being a playoff team.

Who have the Bengals beaten? Nobody. The only above .500 team Cincinnati has won against is 8-7 Tennessee. The Bengals have lost to the Broncos, 49ers, Texans, Steelers twice and to the Ravens, 31-24, in Week 11 after Baltimore build a 31-14 lead.

Baltimore is 7-0 in its AFC North Division games. The Bengals have feasted on bad opponents and bad quarterbacks having the good fortunate to go against six backup quarterbacks.

Cincinnati's defense is good, but it's trumped by the Ravens, which rank No. 2 in rush defense, No. 3 in fewest points at 16.7 and No. 3 in total defense.

Baltimore's Ray Rice is the best skill-position player on the field. Bengals rookie quarterback Andy Dalton has tailed off. He has as many interceptions, six, as touchdown throws during the last seven weeks. He hasn't cleared 200 yards passing since November.

Star wideout A.J. Green is the Bengals' top playmaker and Dalton's top target. However, Green has a sore shoulder that hampers his play. He played in spite of the injury last week but could only manage two receptions for 25 yards.

The Panthers are not an easy out anymore. The Panthers have won and covered four of their last five games. Cam Newton has accounted for 34 touchdowns.

That makes Carolina a very dangerous team, especially if the Saints decide to mail this game in, which very well could be the case.

New Orleans has won the NFC South Division. The Saints are the No. 3 seed. They only could be the No. 2 seed and get a first-round bye if the 49ers lose to the Rams. That's not going to happen. Both New Orleans and San Francisco have early start times on Sunday.

So Saints coach Sean Payton is going to be doing a lot of scoreboard watching. If the 49ers stomp the Rams - and they are double-digit favorites - then Payton won't take chances with Drew Brees and other key starters. He'll yank them since that would render this matchup meaningless from a New Orleans perspective.

Saints backup quarterback Chase Daniel has thrown only five career passes.

Even if Payton elects to play his starters the entire game, the Saints will be in for a tough afternoon. Carolina is averaging 33.1 points in its last six games.

The Saints have a great offense, but leaky defense. New Orleans ranks 30th in passing yards and 26th in total defense.

Carolina nearly upset the Saints back in Week 5 losing 30-27 when New Orleans scored a touchdown with 50 seconds left. The Panthers have covered five of the past seven in the series.

Rarely have the Panthers been blown out. Of their nine defeats, six have been by eight points or less.

The 49ers still need to take care of business with a victory in this matchup to wrap up the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoffs. Jim Harbaugh won't allow San Francisco to let up or not play hard.

The Rams are hopeless. They lost to the 49ers earlier this month, 26-0, behind second-string quarterback A.J. Feeley. San Francisco's top-ranked defense held the Rams to 31 yards rushing and nine first downs.

St. Louis isn't going to be any better this week with third-string quarterback Kellen Clemens. Josh McDaniels has a sharp offensive mind, but his system and stubborn reliance on it has proven disastrous for the Rams, who lack quality receivers aside from Brandon Lloyd and have a makeshift offensive line that is overwhelmed by strong defensive fronts.

St. Louis is averaging a league-low 11.1 points. The Rams are 31st in total offense at 281.7 yards per game. San Francisco is giving up the fewest points at 13.5 per game and also rate No. 1 in rush defense.

The 49ers are not in a good mood either after Marshawn Lynch became the first running back in 37 games to run for 100 yards on them.

San Francisco lacks an explosive offense. But the 49ers can run the ball with Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter. The Rams are surrendering 154.5 yards per game on the ground, worst in the NFL.

Some may think that laying double-digits on the road in the NFL is a bad thing. But each matchup has to be examined in its own individual terms. In this case, I don't see the Rams staying anywhere close to the 49ers. They don't have the talent, sophistication or motivation.

St. Louis is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six games. The Rams are averaging 6.5 points during the last four weeks.

The 49ers kill the Rams in the trenches. They don't have to do anything fancy or unusual to cover this number.

The wrong team is favored in this one.

Right now Indianapolis is plain better than Jacksonville. The Colts are playing their best ball having won two in a row knocking off Tennessee, an above .500 team, and Houston, a division champion.

Jacksonville is decimated physically - down 12 defensive backs including their top four corners - and mentally.

Playing at home means nothing for the Jaguars because their apathetic fans don't care about this matchup and won't come out.

The Colts' offense is better with Dan Orlovsky at quarterback. He has three good wide receivers to throw to. The Jaguars don't have nearly the secondary depth, or decent pass rush, to bother Orlovsky.

Jacksonville is laying more than a field goal yet averaging less than 15 points per game. The Jaguars rank last in total offense and in passing yards.

The Colts will be keying on Maurice Jones-Drew knowing overmatched rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert and his pedestrian wideouts can't hurt them.

The Colts also have had extra time to prepare and rest having last played on Thursday.

The Colts have a number of proud veterans. The team isn't going to lie down in order to land the first overall pick, especially when it's not crucial with Peyton Manning coming back.

New England is at least three touchdowns better than Buffalo at home.

The key for the Patriots is motivation. And the Patriots should have plenty of that. They still need a victory to lock up home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

There's also revenge. The Bills upset New England in Week 3 as Tom Brady tied a career-worst with four interceptions.

I thought this line would be much higher. Yes, the Bills are off a 40-14 pasting of Denver. Brady isn't Tim Tebow, though. Before this past Saturday, Buffalo had lost seven in a row by a combined margin of 124 points. The Bills are 0-6 on the road, 0-5-1 ATS.

New England does have injuries in its offensive line, but the Bills' offensive line is in worse shape. It's nearly decimated.

The Patriots' defense should start improving as key injured players have started to return. Before defeating the Broncos, the Bills were averaging 14.2 points in their previous seven games. New England is averaging 30.9 points and ranks No. 2 in total offense and passing.

The Patriots had won 15 in a row against Buffalo before Week 3. They are 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings versus the Bills.

Buffalo generates no pass rush. The Bills are sitting ducks for a motivated Brady, who has a 13-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last six games, and their offense isn't nearly strong enough to trade points.

The Jets had no problem handling the Dolphins back in Week 6 winning, 24-6.

This game should follow suit. The Jets have had a very disappointing season, but they still match up well to Miami and have more motivation since they still need to win to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Miami has no motivation with a lame duck head coach and a losing record. Don't expect much crowd support negating home-field advantage. Worse, the Dolphins have two significant injuries on offense. Out is their best pass blocker, Jake Long, and best running back, Reggie Bush.

That leaves Brandon Marshall as Miami's only playmaker and Darrelle Reavis can handle him. The Jets play their best when their backs are to the wall. Their defense is strong enough to handle weak offenses like Miami minus Long and Bush.

The key for the Jets is to not fall behind. They are at their best running the ball and going with a conservative offense. Their defense can easily shut down the punchless Dolphins while the Jets have enough offense to win this game straight-up.

The Jets have been gold in this pointspread range covering nine of the past 11 times they've been a road 'dog of up to three points.

Consequently, Miami is 9-30 ATS as a home favorite.

Iowa State's 6-6 record isn't fancy. But the Cyclones are far more battled tested.

Iowa State had five of its six losses occur versus ranked teams. One of the Cyclones' victories was against then No. 2 ranked Oklahoma State.

The Cyclones beat the Cowboys after making the quarterback switch to Jared Barnett. Iowa State has two good running backs in James White and Jeff Woody, who combined for 1,061 yards rushing and 13 touchdowns. Rutgers, by contrast, ranks 115th in rushing.

Rutgers faced just one ranked team losing 41-31 to then No. 25 West Virginia at home.

Both teams faced Connecticut on the road. Rutgers lost to the Huskies, 40-22, while Iowa State won, 24-20.

This was a down year in the Big East, while it was a strong year in the Big 12. The Cyclones are excited about playing in this bowl game, which is at Yankee Stadium in New York.

It's no big deal, though, for Rutgers to travel from New Jersey to the Bronx. Note, too, that Iowa State has covered the past five times it has been an underdog.

Tulsa and BYU both have high-powered passing attacks.

There are two key differences, though, between the teams: Tulsa has faced much more severe competition and far better quarterbacks. BYU really hasn't gone against a quarterback who can really zing the ball. The Golden Hurricane also has a more balanced attack with two good runners to go along with star quarterback G.J. Kinne.

BYU padded its record with a bunch of WAC and Big Sky weaklings.

All four of Tulsa's losses were to foes ranked in the Top 10 at the time. The Golden Hurricane has gone up against four of the best quarterbacks in the country - Houston's Case Keenum, Boise State's Kellen Moore, Oklahoma's Landry Jones and Oklahoma State's Brandon Weeden.

The Golden Hurricane will be prepared for BYU's passing attack, while the Cougars haven't seen a quarterback as good and multi-purposed as Kinne.

Led by Kinne, the Golden Hurricane rank in the top 25 in the nation in scoring (34.1 points per game) and total yards (454.4). Tulsa has gone bowling three of the past four years winning all three times while averaging 56.6 points per game.

There's a class difference not recognized in the line. Tulsa is clearly the superior team.

Think of Baylor and immediately thoughts of Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin III and a high-powered offense come to mind.

But what also should come to mind is a Baylor defense that gives up 35.7 points a game and ranks 114th in total defense allowing 478.3 yards per game.

The Bears surrendered at least 24 points to every FBS foe they faced.

Washington has the offense to take advantage. Keith Price did a nice job replacing Jake Locker throwing for a school-record 29 touchdowns. Chris Polk was one of the best running backs in the country rushing for 1,341 yards and accounting for 15 touchdowns.

The Huskies also know about good quarterbacks being in the premier quarterback conference, the Pac-12, where they faced Andrew Luck, Nick Foles, Darren Thomas and Matt Barkley.

Washington upset Nebraska last season in the Holiday Bowl. Polk ran for 177 yards in that 19-7 victory.

In road games, Baylor went 1-4 ATS, including suffering blowout losses to Texas A&M and Oklahoma City. The Bears are 6-17 ATS on the road under Art Briles.

North Carolina State is the better team and the price is right to back the
Wolfpack.

The Wolfpack came on strong after getting healthier defensively winning five of their last seven. This included an impressive 37-13 spanking of ACC champion Clemson.

North Carolina State forced 23 turnovers during these last seven games. The Wolfpack ranked No. 1 in the nation in interceptions with 24, including a school-record 11 by David Amerson.

The Wolfpack have far more bowl experience than Louisville and will have the majority of crowd support with the game in Charlotte, N.C.

Louisville surprised people by going 5-2 in the Big East. It was a down year in the Big East, though, and the Cardinals received a lot of favorable bounces. They were minus 28 in first downs during conference play.

The Cardinals didn't play a very strong non-league schedule either going 2-3 with one their victories being against non-board team, Murray State.

Despite a relatively easy schedule, the Cardinals averaged just 21.8 points per game, which ranked 100th, and are 104th in total offense averaging 328.3 yards per contest.

Louisville is very young with 10 freshmen starters, including quarterback
Teddy Bridgewater. This is just the second time in five years Louisville is going to a bowl game and that was in 2008.

Bridgewater doesn't have a ground game to fall back on as the Cardinals
ranked 93rd in rushing. This is another key because North Carolina State
ranks 11th in the country in sacks, while Louisville was 111th in sacks
allowed.

I'm not about to step in against a red-hot Drew Brees, who has thrown for 1,776 yards and 16 touchdowns with no interceptions in his last five games.

The Saints are averaging 40 points at the Superdome this season.

Note, too, though that New Orleans also gives up more yardage at home. The Falcons are going to put up their share of points. So over the total is the best way to go.

Matt Ryan plays much better inside a dome. The Falcons know the Saints are going to be blitzing. That's the only way the Saints can be effective because their base defense isn't very good.

So I'm expecting more no-huddle sets from the Falcons than usual. This will keep the Saints off balance and give Ryan more time and also the option of handing off to Michael Turner, who historically plays well against the Saints.

The two teams met six weeks ago and the Saints won, 26-23. There were seven field goals and only four touchdowns in that matchup. Despite only four touchdowns being scored the two teams came close to going over 52.

The Falcons were brutal in the red zone in that matchup failing to score a touchdown in three possessions inside the 20.

I certainly see more than four touchdowns in this rematch with both offenses healthy and heating up. Playing on a fast track in perfect conditions only enhances that.

There's been plenty of steam on Missouri setting up a nice value play on North Carolina.

The Tar Heels have a solid defense holding their last four foes - Wake Forest, North Carolina State, Virginia Tech and Duke - to an average of 16.5 points per game. Wake Forest, North Carolina State and Virginia Tech are all bowl teams and Duke has a respectable passing attack.

Missouri suffered a major late-season blow when star running back Henry Josey went down with a serious knee injury. That's going to hurt the Tigers in this matchup.

North Carolina has two game-breakers in running back Giovani Bernard and wide receiver Dwight Jones. Bernard ran for 1,222 yards and scored 13 touchdowns, while Jones is one of the ACC's best wideouts hauling in 79 passes for 1,119 yards and 11 scores.

Part of the Missouri steam was because Jones was briefly ruled ineligible to play after he allowed his name and photo to be used on a flyer form promoting a party at a club in his hometown. However, the NCAA reinstated him so he will be able to play.

Some of the play on Missouri is based on a coaching change in North Carolina where Southern Mississippi coach Larry Fedora will be taking over, replacing interim coach Everett Withers. The players like Withers, who was named interim coach right before the season when Butch Davis was canned. Withers is going to Ohio State to be co-defensive coordinator for Urban Meyer.

The North Carolina players are dedicating this game to Withers, who did well taking over a difficult situation. The Tar Heels have been a strong 'dog team cover 19 of the past 28 times in that role.

Missouri has been favored the past three years in its bowl games - and failed to cover each time losing straight-up the past two seasons. The Tigers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 neutral site matchups.

Minus Jay Cutler, Matt Forte and now Johnny Knox, the Bears' offense is down and out. Chicago has managed just 27 points during the last three games. Now the Bears are also likely to be without Devin Hester, who has an ankle injury and didn't practice all week.

Hester and Knox are not only dangerous wide receivers, but they are Chicago's two top return men.

Caleb Hanie is out as the starting quarterback, but there's not much - if any - improvement with the switch to 32-year-old journeyman Josh McCown. McCown needs weapons around him to move the ball. He doesn't have that.

The Packers shouldn't need Aaron Rodgers to play the entire game to beat the Bears. They will be extra careful down several offensive lineman, including starting right tackle Bryan Bulaga.

The Bears have the defensive front seven to pressure Rodgers, especially with a still highly-effective Julius Peppers. The Packers realize that and will be calling more running plays than usual. Green Bay has its top four running backs all healthy for the first time in a month with James Starks back.

The Bears' game plan also is going to feature a lot of conservative play-calling with frequent runs. The Bears are down to their third-string tailback, Kahlil Bell. The Packers rank 12th in run defense.

Green Bay has come away with at least one takeaway in 18 of its last 19 games. The Packers also get back from a calf injury Desmond Bishop, who has arguably been their best linebacker this season.

Snow isn't expected, but temperatures are expected to be in the 20s with a seven mph crosswind.

Now that the marketplace has pushed this line past a touchdown it's time to pounce on Nevada.

Only twice this season have the Wolf Pack lost by more than four points. Those defeats were to powerhouses Oregon and Boise State. Southern Mississippi certainly isn't in that class.

I don't see the Golden Eagles being much better than Nevada and when you mix in the situational elements there's a very good chance the Wolf Pack can win outright.

Southern Mississippi played a very easy schedule. The only good teams the Golden Eagles faced were Louisiana Tech, Virginia and Houston.

Nevada has experience playing in Hawaii being in the WAC. Just two years ago, the Wolf Pack played in this bowl game and were embarrassed by SMU, 45-10, at Aloha Stadium. Chris Ault would very much like to avenge that humiliation in this setting and should have good fan support being a WAC team.

Nevada is a veteran team that starts all upperclassmen on defense. That kind of experience plus previous exposure to beautiful Hawaii should keep Nevada focused.

The situation is much different for Southern Mississippi. The Golden Eagles thought they would draw a more prestigious bowl game from having won Conference USA upsetting Houston in the championship game.

That was Southern Mississippi's high water mark. Playing in a minor bowl is a huge disappointment. It's a long trip and the school will lose money.

Then there's also the Larry Fedora head coaching factor. He's leaving the Golden Eagles for North Carolina and taking several of his assistants with him. I see this as having a negative affect on the Southern Mississippi players particularly in this beach setting. Nevada is going to have the stronger motivation.

There's also Southern Mississippi's bowl history. Not once in the last five years have the Golden Eagles won a bowl game by more than a field goal. The last time they accomplished that was when they beat Ohio in 2006 when Jeff Bower was the coach.

A fast track, two elite quarterbacks at the top of their games and a depleted Lions secondary will spell over the total.

Helped by finally having healthy receivers, Philip Rivers has thrown eight touchdown passes in the last four games with no interceptions. He'll be operating against a Detroit secondary missing key personnel. Ryan Mathews has stepped up to post his best four-game rushing total averaging 113.2 yards during the past four weeks.

The Lions are giving up 30.8 points during their last six games. Detroit, though, is more than capable of scoring against a mediocre Chargers defense that gives up more than 22 points per game despite playing six weak offenses in the last eight weeks, including Kansas City, Jacksonville and Buffalo.

Matthew Stafford has thrown for 1,135 yards and 13 touchdowns in the last five games.

Both offenses will be aided playing in a dome stadium.

The Dolphins have become a very tough out covering seven of their last eight games.

Miami historically is outstanding on the road, too, going 21-8-1 ATS. This includes a 3-1 ATS mark in its last four visits to Foxboro.

The Patriots don't have a strong enough defense to lay this many points against a decent team. The Patriots have allowed the most first downs and rank last in total defense and pass defense.

The Patriots have compiled these horrible defensive statistics despite playing inaccurate quarterbacks. The last five quarterbacks the Patriots have faced are Tyler Palko, Vince Young, Dan Orlovsky, Rex Grossman and Tim Tebow.

The Dolphins aren't fancy, but Matt Moore and Reggie Bush are having career years. Bush has rushed for 406 yards in his last three games. Brandon Marshall is a big-time talent who can take advantage of a vulnerable Patriots secondary that has been reduced to using wide receivers.

The Patriots suffered a key defensive injury last week when Andre Carter suffered a season-ending quad injury. He was the Patriots' only big-time pass rusher.

Miami showed it could play in cold weather beating Buffalo on the road last week. That game followed the Dolphins' worst performance in their last eight games, a loss to the Eagles.

The Dolphins proved against the Bills that they will continue to play hard even under interim coach Todd Bowles.

We know the Bengals have a good defense. The numbers back that up. Cincinnati ranks in the top 10 in fewest points allowed, total defense and rushing defense.

But what about Arizona? The Cardinals surrendered an average of 26.1 points and 390.7 yards per game during their first seven games. In their last seven games, though, the Cardinals are giving up an average of 17.4 points and 325 yards.

There are several reasons for this among them being the Cardinals are more in sync with defensive coordinator Ray Horton's system and top rookie cornerback Patrick Peterson is improving his coverage as he gains more experience.

During this seven-game span no opponent has scored more than 23 points on the Cardinals despite two of the games going into overtime. Consequently, Cincinnati has hit a roadblock on offense. The Bengals haven't broken the 24-point barrier during any of their past seven games.

Cincinnati is averaging 15.3 points in its last three games. Rookie quarterback Andy Dalton has tailed off. It's been five games since he's had multiple touchdown throws in a game. A.J. Green, the Bengals' lone playmaker, has a shoulder injury and will be far less than 100 percent if he plays. The Bengals' passing attack suffers greatly if Green can't play, or is severely restricted.

The Cardinals aren't going to put up many points either with inaccurate John Skelton as their quarterback. Skelton is kind of a poor man's Tim Tebow in that he's not pretty with a quarterback rating of under 70 and a six-to-eight touchdown-to-interception ratio, but he does the job as Arizona is 5-1 when he's played.

The weather is expected to be fine with a minimal amount of wind, but I see both teams playing very conservative in this high-stakes matchup.

I also see both defenses playing better than they have.

The Jets know the Giants can rush the passer well, but rank 22nd versus the run. Rex Ryan's offensive approach will be more conservative than ever. He'll look to feature Shonn Greene and keep Mark Sanchez out of harm's way.

The Giants' secondary has proven vulnerable. Sanchez doesn't have the arm, though, to take advantage especially in a cold December outdoor game.

The Jets' defense is due to step up. I see the Giants running Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs more than usual. All of this running, of course, eats clock.

Kill spot for Baltimore off an embarrassing loss to San Diego and with designs of not only winning the AFC North, but earning home-field advantage in the playoffs.

The Ravens have never lost in seven meetings against the Browns under John Harbaugh, covering six of the seven. Baltimore is 7-0 at home this season. The Ravens are 4-2-1 ATS at home with victories and covers against the Steelers, Jets, Texans and 49ers - all teams far superior to Cleveland.

The Browns have failed to cover seven of the past nine times they've gone against foes with a winning mark. They are 2-6 ATS in their last eight AFC North games and 3-8 ATS as an underdog.

Baltimore is at its best when it runs Ray Rice a lot. That's what the Ravens did when the teams met in Week 13. Baltimore ran for 290 yards with Rice picking up 204 yards on the ground in a methodical 24-10 victory. The Ravens held the Browns to 59 yards rushing on 17 carries.

The Ravens are much more intimidating at home, especially with Ray Lewis back in the lineup. They should steamroll the Browns again. The Browns' run defense is worn down. In their last eight games, the Browns are giving up an average of five yards per carry.

Cleveland has little offense ranking 29th in total yards at 294.8 and 30th in scoring at 13.9 points per game. Career backup Seneca Wallace figures to start at quarterback for Cleveland. I'm not a Colt McCoy fan, but Wallace isn't any better.

There's a huge class difference between these two teams. The question is can the Texans cover this road spread with a third-string rookie quarterback and how motivated will the Colts be?

We know motivation for Houston isn't going to be a problem after the Texans were embarrassed at home by Carolina this past Sunday. The Texans can still finish 12-4 and earn a first-round bye and home field advantage in the playoffs.

The Texans caught a break with Baltimore and Pittsburgh also losing. Gary Kubiak is confident enough in his team's talent level that he's holding out his best wide receiver, Andre Johnson.

Johnson has a hamstring injury. If this were a playoff game Johnson would likely be playing. But Kubiak knows his team can whip Indianapolis without Johnson.

That should tell you something about this pointspread - it's too small thus giving excellent value to the favorite.

The Colts lack Houston's incentive. They are just playing the string out and are actually in a letdown spot after finally achieving their first victory. That takes the pressure off them.

It's actually better for the long-term future of the franchise if the Colts lose and thus don't jeopardize their chances of landing the No. 1 overall pick and getting Andrew Luck.

The oddsmaker has misread this matchup by hanging such a small line. It should be more than a touchdown. The record shows that Indianapolis has covered its last three games. But that's misleading. The Colts trailed the Patriots, 31-10, before getting a backdoor cover with two meaningless touchdowns during the final 2:12.

The Colts scored a meaningless touchdown on the final play against Baltimore to get another backdoor cover in a 24-10 loss as a 16 1/2-point underdog. Then this past Sunday the Colts had a plus two turnover advantage, including returning an interception off Matt Hasselbeck for a touchdown in their win against Tennessee. If you discount an 80-yard touchdown run by Donald Brown on a broken play, the Colts managed just nine first downs and 207 yards of offense against the sliding Titans.

Houston had its seven-game win streak and 6-0-1 ATS mark snapped this past Sunday against Carolina. The Texans outgained the Panthers, but were done in by a minus three turnover ratio.

The Texans rank in the top five in the major defensive categories. They will have no trouble containing a punchless Indy offense that ranks second to last in total yards and averages just 15.1 points per game. Houston is familiar with Dan Orlovsky, who was a backup quarterback for the Texans the previous two seasons. Orlovsky is 1-9 as an NFL starter.

The Colts already have lost at home to far inferior teams than Houston. The Colts lost by eight to Cleveland, by four to Kansas City, by 14 to Jacksonville and by eight to Carolina.

The Texans crushed the Colts, 34-7, opening week. Houston did have Matt Schuab in that victory, but was missing its best player, running back Arian Foster.

The Colts defense was fresh back then. Now it's worn down from injuries and being on the field way too long. Most star running backs have tired legs at this late stage of the season. But Foster is fresher than most having missed most of the first three games because of a hamstring injury.

Foster and Ben Tate, who rushed for 116 yards in the first meeting against the Colts, are the keys. The Texans will ride these two excellent backs, which will take the pressure of T.J. Yates and allow him to successfully play-action and pick his spots.

Houston ranks second in rushing averaging more than 151 yards per game and is first in average time of possession. The Texans will methodically wear down an already worn down and unmotivated Colts team.

Some places opened this game TCU minus 11 1/2. Are the oddsmakers that off?

I say no. Steam on Louisiana Tech has lowered the favorite down past key numbers 11 and 10.

At this price, TCU is worth playing. Louisiana Tech has received some love because it has covered all seven of its road games while beating an SEC school and barely losing to Houston and Southern Mississippi.

The Bulldogs have played decent opponents and are a good team. But so is TCU.

There's some anti-TCU feeling that the Horned Frogs aren't as good as they've been the past two years and won't play well because they are down about playing in such a minor bowl game.

There is truth to that but let's not over analyze this. The Horned Frogs are still double-digits better than Louisiana Tech.

TCU has bowl experience, which the Bulldogs lack. The Horned Frogs know this bowl game and this stadium having beaten San Diego State earlier this season at Qualcomm Stadium.

This is a long trip for Louisiana Tech, which hasn't played since Nov. 26. The last time the Bulldogs played in a bowl game was 2008.

TCU has beaten five bowl teams, including Boise State then the No. 5 team in the country. Could the Bulldogs have pulled off such a similar upset? Heck no.

Sure TCU's talent is down from the past two seasons. The Horned Frogs went 25-1 during those two seasons. But TCU's talent level still ranks far above Louisiana Tech's.

The long layoff will hinder the Bulldogs' momentum. Their lack of bowl experience also will hurt them.

TCU joins the Big 12 next year. The Horned Frogs don't want to enter their new more prestigious conference with an embarrassing bowl loss to Louisiana Tech.

I'm not sold on the 49ers being an elite team like the Steelers.

But the timing and situation are right for the 49ers to cover this small number.

Baltimore losing to San Diego last night takes the pressure off Pittsburgh. While Green Bay falling to Kansas City gives San Francisco a glimmer of hope that it can finish with the best record in the NFC.

The 49ers are home with more to prove than the Steelers. San Francisco also is the healthier team even though I'd be surprised if star inside linebacker Patrick Willis is able to play.

But while the 49ers are likely to be without their best tackler, the Steelers are missing far more key players. Out for Pittsburgh is star center Maurkice Pouncey, suspended Pro Bowl linebacker James Harrison and Emmanuel Sanders, their third-best wide receiver.

In addition to these players being out, sack-leader LaMarr Woodley is hobbled as is Ben Roethlisberger, who is expected to start. Pouncey's absence means a disjointed offensive line. That's not good for Roethlisberger, who might be lifted at any time. Roethlisberger's backup is washed-up Charlie Batch.

The 49ers haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher in their last 35 games. The Steelers are going to need to pass to beat them, which is made far more difficult by Roethlisberger being less than 100 percent and Pouncey being out.

San Francisco also holds a special teams edge with dangerous Ted Ginn returning kicks and punts and kicker David Akers having a magnificent season.

The marketplace has been all over the Patriots so far. I agree with the steam.

Denver's defense is much improved, but it has faced only one good quarterback during the past six weeks and that was Philip Rivers, who is having a down year.

The only two other outstanding quarterbacks the Broncos have faced were Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers and Detroit put up 45 points and Green Bay scored 49 points on Denver.

Only once during their last five games have the Broncos even broken the 17-point barrier. Denver is beaten-up in the secondary. Tom Brady should have a field day against the Broncos' depleted secondary.

I don't see Tim Tebow being able to trade points with Brady. The Patriots are last in pass defense, but Tebow lacks the accuracy and downfield touch to burn New England.

If there's a defensive guru who can effectively defend Tebow for all four quarters it's Bill Belichick.

The Patriots lost the last time they visited Denver two years ago. Belichick will have his team fired-up for this matchup, which has become a marquee game. The Patriots have covered in eight of their last 11 road games.

The Broncos can't hold New England to less than three touchdowns, which has been the key for them in building a six-game winning streak. The explosive Patriots are No. 2 in total yards at 424.7 and No. 3 in scoring at 30.5 points per game.

New England is hitting its stride offensively averaging 34.8 points in its last five games. Denver's defense isn't nearly good enough to keep Brady in check. Tebow's a great story, but he doesn't have nearly the passing skills to take advantage of New England's patchwork secondary, or overcome Belichick's defensive acumen.

Weather sometimes can be a negative factor in December games. But that won't be the case here in the desert with temperatures in the high 50s, no wind and just a slight chance of rain.

Now the question is can these two teams produce enough points to get over this low total?

The answer is yes. The Cardinals can take advantage of Cleveland's 31st-ranked run defense that is worn down and vulnerable to a bruising inside runner such as Beanie Wells. The last time Wells went up against such a bad rush defense he ran for 228 yards against St. Louis three weeks ago.

I'm fine no matter who the Cardinals' starting quarterback is. They are 4-1 with John Skelton as their quarterback. He's off his finest performance going 19-for-28 for 282 yards and three touchdowns with a quarterback rating of 106.5 in an upset last week of San Francisco.

The Cardinals have gone over 18 of the last 26 times in December.

Cleveland is expected to start backup Seneca Wallace at quarterback instead of Colt McCoy, who has a concussion. I like Wallace better because he's more mobile and has a stronger arm.

Arizona's defense has improved, but the Cardinals defense still is far from an elite unit. The Browns have had extra time to prepare Wallace and game-plan having last played on Thursday.

Both teams also have dangerous kick and punt return specialists.

The Giants aren't strong enough defensively to be laying this big of a number to a division foe.

New York has given up an average of 40.3 points during its last three games. The Giants rank 30th in total defense and 29th in passing defense. Both their secondary and defensive line has key players injured.

Rex Grossman threw for 305 yards and had two touchdowns with no interceptions when the Redskins beat the Giants, 28-14, opening week.

Roy Helu has stepped up to rush for 100 yards in each of the last three weeks. Helu's excellent running takes the pressure off Grossman, who still has a dangerous deep threat in Santana Moss.

The Redskins have covered five of their last six NFC East games. The Giants are 4-10-1 ATS as a home favorite of between 3 1/2 and 10 points. New York also is 1-11 ATS when hosting an opponent with a losing road mark.

The Giants often play up or down to the level of competition. In the last two weeks, the Giants nearly dealt the Packers their first loss and then pulled out a dramatic victory this past Sunday night on the road against Dallas. Up next for the Giants is an in-state grudge match against the Jets.

The Redskins are loose with nothing to lose. They host Minnesota next week. So Washington's full focus should be on this matchup against a long-time hated rival.

The Saints were flat last week, but managed to escape with a road win against Tennessee. New Orleans has now won and covered five in a row.

The Saints have struggled on the road, but they are in a natural dome setting on carpet facing a decimated secondary. New Orleans is averaging 35.7 points in eight dome games this year.

Drew Brees has a 19-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last seven games accounting for 20 touchdowns during this span. Brees has passed for 300 yards in 10 of 13 games and should have no problem putting up huge numbers against a Minnesota secondary minus its two top cornerbacks - Antoine Winfield and Chris Cook - and top cover safety Husan Abdullah.

The Vikings aren't going to be able to keep up even with Adrian Peterson back in the lineup. Peterson says he's about 85 percent after missing the last three games with an ankle injury.

Rookie Christian Ponder is struggling and has limited mobility with a hip injury. The Saints are going to be aggressively blitzing the now immobile Ponder.

The Vikings could turn to Joe Webb, who is very mobile but not an accurate passer.

The Vikings have played hard the last two weeks losing at home to Denver by three points when they blew a late lead and nearly upsetting the Lions on the road this past Sunday after trailing 31-14 midway through the third quarter.

I don't see the Vikings having enough in the tank physically and mentally to stay with a red-hot Brees, who will find the pickings easy against such a beat-up secondary and playing on a fast indoor track.

Buffalo did it again. Failed to make the playoffs for the 12th straight season.

But the Bills won't lack for motivation in this matchup. There's enough of a situational edge and injury factor to back Buffalo.

Miami had been playing well, but fell 26-10 at home to Philadelphia last Sunday. Now the Dolphins, in the midst of their lost season, have to travel to upstate New York to face a revenge-seeking division opponent with a new head coach.

This will be Miami's first cold weather game. Temperatures are expected to be in the 20s with a chance of snow and 8-10 mph winds.

The Dolphins stuck it to the Bills, 35-8, in Week 11. Buffalo hasn't won since. Todd Bowles will be coaching his first NFL game having replaced Tony Sparano. Bowles is unknown, but this is a difficult spot to step into since the Dolphins obviously want a bigger name to be their head coach. So the players may consciously, or unconsciously, let up with Bowles as the coach especially in weather elements foreign to them.

Sparano wasn't a sharp coach, but the Dolphins could usually be counted on to give a full effort under him. Buffalo's Chan Gailey has one of the better offensive minds of the head coaches.

Gailey has kept the Bills playing hard despite losing close to a dozen key players to injuries. This week, though, it's the Dolphins who have two important injuries.

Quarterback Matt Moore probably will start despite suffering a neck injury last week. He has limited talent and the injury could affect his play. There's a chance Miami could use J.P. Losman later on even if Moore starts. Losman was a bust with the Bills. Buffalo knows Losman and can take full advantage of his many holes. If Losman does get into the game, the Dolphins are in big trouble.

The Bills are last in sacks, but the Dolphins are unlikely to have star left tackle Jake Long due to a back injury. The Dolphins have allowed 44 sacks, which is the second-highest amount in the league behind only St. Louis.

Even the Bills will be able to get to Miami's weakened offensive line. Miami has been playing better defense, but Ryan Fitzpatrick is due for a good performance and he's home. He also gets back veteran left tackle Demetrius Bell, who had missed the last eight weeks with a shoulder injury, to protect his blind side.

Sure the Texans are still alive for best record in the AFC, but their intensity level has to be down after clinching their first division title and playoff berth in dramatic style last week. They edged the Bengals on the final play from scrimmage.

It's going to be difficult for the Texans to cover a touchdown spread with a third-string rookie quarterback without a strong effort against a feisty underdog.

Cam Newton makes Carolina dangerous. The Panthers have had the lead in every one of their games except one. They are a respectable 3-4 in their last seven games.

Newton is a monster accounting for 28 touchdowns. He's averaging 5.2 yards per rush, same as DeAngelo Williams. A rejuvenated Steve Smith is second in the league in receiving yards. He's the best wideout on the field with Andre Johnson unlikely to play after straining his hamstring.

The Panthers catch a break, too, in that Texans defensive coordinator Wade Phillips won't be coaching following a surgical procedure. He's this year's defensive coordinator of the year. Phillips called the defensive plays for the greatly-improved Houston defense.

The Panthers have covered 15 of their last 21 games in December.

This bowl game is a big deal for Louisiana-Lafayette, which is making its first postseason appearance in 41 years.

The Ragin' Cajuns probably will have about 95 percent of the crowd support, too, playing in nearby New Orleans. It's another plus that the Ragin' Cajuns will be playing indoors in the Superdome since they have covered nine of the last 10 times they've been on carpet.

San Diego State has never been to New Orleans. It's nearly a 2,000 mile trip and the Aztecs won't be bringing many fans. Their players aren't used to this culture, night life and lifestyle, which could effect their play.

San Diego State has failed to cover four of the past five times it has been favored. The Aztecs lost as 18-point favorites against Wyoming. This is significant because Wyoming runs a similar spread offense that Lafayette uses.

Lafayette is a much better team than perceived. The Ragin' Cajuns were just 3-9 last season, but have greatly improved under the excellent coaching of Mark Hudspeth and quarterbacking of Blaine Gautier, who has a 20-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

The Ragin' Cajuns have covered 13 of the last 16 times they've been 'dogs, including going 7-0 ATS this season.

Banged-up, demoralized and leaderless, Tampa Bay is a dead team.

The Cowboys are off a tough home loss and need a big victory in their quest to capture the NFC East Division.

The talent gap between these two teams - especially considering the Buccaneers' banged-up defense - is much wider than a touchdown. The combination of a huge talent edge and motivation is more than enough for the Cowboys to romp.

The Buccaneers are surrendering an average of 32.5 points in their last nine games. Their run defense has absolutely fallen apart since star tackle Gerald McCoy was lost for the season with a bicep injury. In the seven games McCoy has missed the Buccaneers have allowed 956 yards rushing and 14 touchdowns on the ground.

The Cowboys certainly have the firepower to exploit such defensive shortcomings ranking in the top 10 in points, total yards and passing. Felix Jones is more than a capable replacement for DeMarco Murray, who was behind Jones in the depth chart until Jones was hurt earlier in the season.

It's not just the Buccaneers' defense either that has fallen off. Josh Freeman has had a dramatic regression. He's turned the ball over 13 times in the last five games.

Dallas is in a foul mood after losing at the end to the Giants this past Sunday night. Cowboys coach Jason Garrett has taken justifiable heat for his conservative coaching. He and his Cowboys will be taking their frustrations out on the Buccaneers.

Tampa Bay has lost seven in a row and eight of its last 10. The Bucs last won a game in mid-October. They've only covered one of their last seven games and that was a nine-point loss to Green Bay on the road. The Buccaneers have been horrible at Raymond James Stadium going 4-13-1 ATS, including 2-4 ATS this season.

The Buccaneers are a young team with a young coach and they have bad chemistry. Raheem Morris doesn't have the experience nor the acumen to turn the Bucs' lost season around. The Buccaneers are the perfect team to fade right now when backing a superior team with an explosive offense that has far more motivation.

This bowl game is a big deal for Louisiana-Lafayette, which is making its first postseason appearance in 41 years.

The Ragin' Cajuns probably will have about 95 percent of the crowd support, too, playing in nearby New Orleans. It's another plus that the Ragin' Cajuns will be playing indoors in the Superdome since they have covered nine of the last 10 times they've been on carpet.

San Diego State has never been to New Orleans. It's nearly a 2,000 mile trip and the Aztecs won't be bringing many fans. Their players aren't used to this culture, night life and lifestyle, which could effect their play.

San Diego State has failed to cover four of the past five times it has been favored. The Aztecs lost as 18-point favorites against Wyoming. This is significant because Wyoming runs a similar spread offense that Lafayette uses.

Lafayette is a much better team than perceived. The Ragin' Cajuns were just 3-9 last season, but have greatly improved under the excellent coaching of Mark Hudspeth and quarterbacking of Blaine Gautier, who has a 20-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

The Ragin' Cajuns have covered 13 of the last 16 times they've been 'dogs, including going 7-0 ATS this season.

Temple is overrated. The Owls struggled against the better teams on their
schedule. They build their record on beating MAC weaklings.

Wyoming played a much more difficult schedule yet compiled the same 8-4
record as Temple. The Cowboys lost to Nebraska, TCU and Boise State, but
posted victories against bowl teams San Diego State and Air Force. Both of
those wins came on the road.

The two teams had a common opponent. Temple lost at Bowling Green while
Wyoming beat the Falcons on the road.

Wyoming has experience playing in this bowl game. The Cowboys upset Fresno
State, 35-28, as a double-digit underdog two years ago in this bowl game.
Wyoming has covered 66 percent of its last 18 road games under Dave
Christensen.

Mountain West Conference teams have covered 58 percent of their bowl games
during the last five seasons, while MAC schools are 5-15-1 ATS in bowl
action during the past five seasons.

Atlanta is 24-4 straight-up at home with Matt Ryan under center. There's little doubt the Falcons are going to win this game, the key obviously is can they cover a double-digit pointspread?

The answer is yes.

Jacksonville averages 14.8 points per game. The Jaguars rank last in total offense and passing offense. Their only good offensive player is running back Maurice Jones-Drew and Atlanta's defensive strength is its run defense.

Blaine Gabbert doesn't have the pocket presence or accuracy to hurt the Falcons, even though they will be keying on Jones-Drew and have injuries in their secondary.

Statistically, the Jaguars appear impressive on defense ranking fourth in fewest yards allowed and seventh in fewest points given up. But that defense has been hit hard by injuries during the past few weeks losing their best cover defensive backs and run-stuffing linemen. The Jaguars lack the depth to make up for these injuries.

Jacksonville is ripe to be plucked. This hasn't happened in four of the Jaguars' last five games because the quarterbacks they faced in those four games were third-string rookie T.J. Yates, who was making his first appearance, Curtis Painter and the Colts, Colt McCoy and the Browns and banged-up Josh Freeman and the Buccaneers.

Philip Rivers was the only big-time quarterback the Jaguars faced during this span and he lit them up for 38 points at Jacksonville.

Ryan plays much better inside a dome at home. He has explosive weapons, including a now healthy Julio Jones. The Falcons came out flat last week and then stormed back to beat Carolina on the road. They won't make that mistake of starting slow here. Atlanta is 16-5-1 ATS versus losing teams.

Since Week 1, Jacksonville is 3-9 straight-up and 4-7-1 ATS. The Jaguars got their much needed win last week against Tampa Bay, scoring more than 20 points for the first time this year.

This is a kill spot for the Falcons and they will apply the hammer.

I can't see the Rams being competitive in this game. They have no business being on the national stage. A blowout loss might even be good for the Rams because then their ownership might be embarrassed enough to do more for the sinking franchise.

The Rams are decimated both on the offensive line and secondary. St. Louis has lost a staggering 10 defensive backs and allowed 39 sacks.

The Rams would be foolish to risk Sam Bradford, who isn't 100 percent with an ankle injury.

Backup A.J. Feeley is out so the Rams probably are going to be reduced to using a street free agent at quarterback. Not good.

They can't rely on Steven Jackson either. He's never rushed for 100 yards in 14 meetings against Seattle and has looked sluggish as the long year wears him down. The Seahawks' strength is their run defense and huge home-field advantage.

The Seahawks are playing well. They are on a 7-2-1 ATS streak. Marshawn Lynch is running as well as any back.

The Seahawks are well-rested. This is their third consecutive home game. They've had extra preparation time, too, from having played last Thursday when they beat the Eagles in impressive fashion.

Pete Carroll isn't adverse to running up a score. He would do it here, too, on national television.

Seattle has owned the Rams winning 12 of the past 13 meetings, going 10-3 ATS.

Yes, the Giants have lost four in a row. But look at who they have played: 49ers, Eagles, Saints and Packers.

The Giants beat the Patriots in New England five weeks ago and should have defeated Green Bay this past Sunday.

Dallas has played an easier schedule having faced the Redskins, Bills, Seahawks, Rams and Cardinals.

The Giants have the offense to pile up points on Dallas and the pass rushers to bother Tony Romo. Eli Manning is having his finest season. The Giants are dangerous when healthy and they got two key players back last week in running back Ahmad Bradshaw and linebacker Michael Boley.

This is the Giants' season. They can't afford a loss here. New York The Giants have defeated Dallas the past two seasons on the road. They are 5-2 SU and ATS in their last seven games versus the Cowboys.

Dallas is 2-6-1 ATS as a favorite this season. Going back to the past 16 times they've been chalk, the Cowboys are a miserable 3-12-1 ATS. They also are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games played in December.

The Giants are 23-9 when taking points.

The Chargers are healthy on offense. That makes them dangerous against bad defenses such as Buffalo, especially when playing in warm weather.

Philip Rivers has his three main receiving targets healthy for one of the rare times this season with Vincent Jackson, Antonio Gates and Malcom Floyd. The Chargers' offensive line also has gotten back some of their walking wounded with the return of starting guards Louis Vasquez and Tyronne Green.

The Chargers did not give up a sack this past Monday in destroying Jacksonville on the road, 38-14. The Jaguars don't rush the passer very well and their secondary is beat-up.

This sounds very much like the Bills, who also lack a pass rush and have lost several key defenders including cornerback Terrence McGee and possibly safety George Wilson. Given time, Rivers can pick apart the best of defenses. The Bills' defense gives up 25.3 points per game.

San Diego's defense is down from past years. The Chargers have surrendered at least 20 points to all but two opponents. Buffalo's offense has tallied off, but still has big-play capability and Chan Gailey has a good offensive mind.

The Bills are 6-0-1 to the over in their last seven road games and 9-1-1 to the over after not covering the week before.

The Raiders lack the offense, consistency and discipline to keep this matchup close at Lambeau Field.

Travel could be getting to Oakland as this is its second long trip in two weeks and fourth road game in five weeks.

Playing in Green Bay in December is never fun either especially for a California team.

The Raiders have a sloppy passing attack and their most explosive skill position players are all out again.

On defense, the Raiders still blown way too many coverages, which is deadly against the league's most explosive team.

Green Bay is averaging 39 points at home. The Raiders can't keep close to that.

This is a dangerous flat spot for the Saints. Following their bye, the Saints destroyed the Giants at home on a Monday night and then took care of the Lions also at home this past Sunday night.

But now the Saints have to travel for the first time in four weeks and play on grass for the first time since mid-October when they lost at Tampa Bay.

New Orleans ranks 27th in total defense and its offense isn't nearly as explosive away from their home dome, especially on a grass field. Drew Brees' completion percentage drops from 68 to 63 on the road and his passing yardage falls from 341 to 290.

In the Louisiana Superdome, the Saints have averaged 39.8 points in six home contests. In their last five road games, however, the Saints are averaging 23.4 points during regulation. New Orleans has failed to cover in eight of its last 11 road contests.

The Titans are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 meetings against NFC competition. The Titans already have covered against the three other NFC South Division teams this year, beating Carolina and Tampa Bay straight-up by a combined 33 points.

Tennessee's defense doesn't get much fanfare, but the Titans are allowing just 19.1 points per game, which is sixth-best in the NFL. The Titans are respectable versus the pass and can play ball control with a ground attack that is picking up steam.

Chris Johnson was the best running back in football two years ago. After a very slow start, caused in large part by a protracted holdout, he has come on strong rushing for 343 yards the past two weeks.

If the Titans pull the upset, they have a real shot at making the playoffs. It's something they are well aware of. The spot and opponent match up well for the underdog to get the money if not win the game outright.

In a battle of two strong defensive teams, I'll back the Bengals, who have the better quarterback and are at home. The pointspread at a field goal or less, is enough to back them.

I like T.J. Yates. But he's the Texans' third-string quarterback and won't have his security blanket and top receiver Andre Johnson. I much prefer the Bengals' good-looking rookie Andy Dalton and his stellar group of young wideouts headed by A.J. Green.

The Texans have won six in a row to build up a two-game lead in the AFC South. The Bengals, on the other hand, can't afford a loss as they try to earn a wild-card spot.

Cincinnati has played twice against Pittsburgh and once against Baltimore in its last four games. Houston is much improved defensively, but its defense isn't as physical as those two opponents.

The Texans are vulnerable in the secondary. They haven't faced a quarterback as good as Dalton during their last three road games having played the Jaguars, Buccaneers and Titans. I like the matchup of Green and Jerome Simpson against Houston cornerbacks Jason Allen and Kareem Jackson.

Two beat-up secondaries playing inside a fast track dome spells lots of points.

That's the scenario in this matchup.

Tim Tebow passed for 200 yards and two touchdowns against the Vikings on the road last week inside a dome. It's scary to think what Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson and a real passing attack can do against Minnesota.

The Vikings can't defend the pass anymore minus their two best cornerbacks and top cover safety. Injuries have reduced the Vikings' secondary to second- and third-stringers at three of the four defensive backfield positions. In their last seven games, the Vikings have surrendered 18 touchdown passes while coming up with no interceptions.

I expect Christian Ponder to start for Minnesota. It's a bonus if Adrian Peterson plays. But I'm fine with this total over if neither plays.

Joe Webb would be the Vikings' quarterback if Ponder can't play. He's very athletic and has the weapons to put up points against a Lions defense missing their best front-seven player in suspended tackle Ndamukong Suh and best defensive back, injured safety Louis Delmas.

The Falcons beat the Panthers, 31-17, in Week 6 and I see nothing changing in this matchup.

Carolina is more beat-up on defense. Besides having lost their best linebackers, the Panthers also are down run-stuffing defensive tackles Sione Fua and Terrell McClain, both of whom went down last week.

This makes the Panthers highly vulnerable to the rumbling of Michael Turner, who has ran for at least 100 yards in five of his last six games against the Panthers. He gashed the Panthers for 139 yards rushing and two touchdowns in the team's first meeting this season.

Matt Ryan should perform better with the emphasis on Turner, especially with rookie Julio Jones healthy and teaming up with Roddy White.

The Falcons intercepted Cam Newton three times in the first meeting and held him without a touchdown throw. The Faclons rank No. 3 in the NFL in run defense. They've allowed only one 100-yard rusher in the last 15 games.

This is an off-surface for the Falcons, but they've covered 11 of their last 16 road games.

Laying two touchdowns in the NFL is a dangerous thing to do no matter how enticing the favorite might look.

But special Thursday night circumstances and matchup analysis points to an easy Pittsburgh victory so I'll be laying the big freight.

The Browns are going into Pittsburgh on a short week having been physically whipped by Baltimore this past Sunday losing 24-10 at home surrendering a staggering 290 yards on the ground. The week before that the Browns played their hearts out nearly upsetting another division rival, Cincinnati.

Overworked, overburdened and largely devoid of talent, the Browns' defense is breaking down allowing an average of 5.3 yards per rush and seven touchdowns on the ground in their last six games. Losing veteran linebacker Scott Fujita certainly didn't help Cleveland's worn down defense.

And defense is the Browns' strength.

The Browns have no playmakers on offense. They are averaging 14.6 points per game and rank 30th in total yards and rushing. In their last seven games, the Browns are averaging only 12 points a game. Peyton Hillis isn't nearly the runner he was last year. Montario Hardesty and Chris Ogbonnaya are below average backups.

Colt McCoy is nothing but a dink-and-dunker with below average wider receivers. McCoy has passed for more than 220 yards just twice this season in this the year of the quarterback.

Pittsburgh ranks first in total defense and No. 2 against the pass. Star linebacker James Harrison is coming on after beginning the year slow recovering from off-season surgery. The Steelers' run defense has shown marked improvement since nose guard Casey Hampton returned from a shoulder injury. Pittsburgh has given up just one rushing score and held opposing runners to an average of 3.1 yards per carry during its last five games.

I can't see the Browns putting many points at all in this matchup and they don't have a Cam Newton type of quarterback to hang around and get a backdoor cover.

The Steelers are well balanced on offense with Ben Roethlisberger and a relatively fresh Rashard Mendenhall. The Browns rank No. 1 in pass defense. That statistic is highly misleading, though, considering the Browns have been thrown on the second fewest times. The Browns don't rush the quarterback well and aside from cornerback Joe Haden, they don't have a strong secondary.

The Steelers are off their most dominant performance of the season beating the Bengals, 35-7, last week. That was Pittsburgh's seventh win in its last eight games. The Browns are 2-7 in their last nine games. Their victories have been against Seattle when backup Charlie Whitehurst was the quarterback and Marshawn Lynch was out and against Jacksonville, which is 3-9 and ranks last in total offense and second-to-last in points scored.

I don't see a letdown factor either from Pittsburgh in this nationally televised home matchup. The Steelers have beaten the Browns in 14 of the last 15 meetings, but the lone defeat during this span occurred just two years ago and that loss help keep them out of the playoffs. The Steelers are desperately trying to stay ahead of the Ravens in the AFC North Division knowing the Ravens own two victories against them this season. The two teams are tied for the division lead.

Cleveland is 1-4 on the road with its only victory coming against the winless Colts. The Browns have failed to cover eight of the last nine times they've been underdogs.

As bad as the Chargers have been - and they've been brutal - they have a chance to get back into the AFC West race even though they trail Oakland by three games.

The Chargers should win this game and beat Buffalo at home next week. The Raiders are underdogs at Miami and then have to play on the road against the Packers next week. So the Chargers could pick up two games right there on the Raiders, who they meet in the final week.

Jacksonville can't score enough points to beat any team and its defense no longer can keep them in games due to recent multiple injuries.

The Jaguars continue to force feed Blaine Gabbert, who simply is not a starting-caliber NFL quarterback at this early stage of his career. He lacks pocket presence and accuracy. Jacksonville is last in passing yards, total offense and in scoring averaging 12.5 points a game.

Malcom Floyd is slated to return from injury giving Philip Rivers another quality receiving target to go with Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates. Ryan Mathews is coming off a 142-yard rushing game.

During the past few weeks, the Jaguars have lost key defensive personnel, including nose tackle Terrance Knighton, defensive end Matt Roth, linebacker Clint Session and cornerback Rashean Mathis, their top cover man.

This also is the Jaguars' first game in nine years without coach Jack Del Rio. The Jaguars proved dangerous on Monday night in Week 7 at home upsetting Baltimore.

Rivers, though, is a far better quarterback than Joe Flacco and the Jaguars weren't nearly as decimated on defense as they are now.

Going over 49 used to be a stop sign in the NFL. Not anymore, especially when two outstanding quarterbacks go against vulnerable defenses in a dome setting.

When healthy, Matthew Stafford is an elite quarterback. Stafford was practicing this week without a splint on his previously broken right index finger. Before that injury, he was effective as any quarterback.

The Lions have the passing attack. What they need is a ground game, which should return this week with Kevin Smith back from an ankle injury that sidelined him early in the Lions' Thanksgiving loss to Green Bay. Smith was running better than he ever has before suffering the injury.

Detroit is averaging 28.7 points per game. In road dome games, the Lions are averaging 30 points having played at Dallas and Minnesota. Both of these teams have better defenses than the Saints, who rank 25th in total defense.

So the Lions should get their share of points. Certainly the Saints are going to put up a big number. Their offense has been unstoppable at home where they are averaging 41.6 points in five games. Drew Brees is in the midst of another monster season and has his full complement of weapons.

If this isn't enough, the Lions are missing key defensive players. Ndamukong Suh is suspended. That renders the Lions' edge pass rushers less effective since Suh would tie up two blockers.

The Lions also have multiple injuries in their secondary, the biggest loss being star free safety Louis Delmas.

Detroit wasn't going to be holding a Saints offense, clicking on all cyclinders, in check it were healthy. Now the Lions really have little chance of holding the Saints down.

This seems like a lot of points to lay in a division game with a weak offense, but it's really not considering the matchup.

The Rams can't score, don't stop the run and now may not have Sam Bradford, who didn't practice on Thursday because of a flare-up of an ankle injury.

Bradford, Steven Jackson and Brandon Lloyd are the Rams' only decent offensive players. Bradford doesn't have much time to throw because of the Rams' five-step dropback style and having a leaky, battered offensive line. Jackson doesn't figure to have success against a top-ranked 49ers run defense that hasn't allowed a 100-yard rusher nor allowed a rushing touchdown.

San Francisco has given up the fewest points in the NFL at 14.6 per game. St. Louis is averaging 12.7 points per game, lowest of any team except Jacksonville.

The Rams have covered only two of their past 12 games. They are a dome team playing on a grass field lacking motivation and confidence. The 49ers have had extra time to prepare and stew about losing the Harbaugh Bowl on Thanksgiving. They'll be happy to take their frustrations out on the punchless Rams.

Alex Smith is a limited passer, but even Smith will have success facing a Rams defense that is down a staggering 10 defensive backs. Frank Gore is in line for a big game, which will loosen up the Rams' decimated secondary even more for Smith, who has decent receiving targets in Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree.

It's become obvious why Tyler Palko has been waived by not only four different NFL teams, but also released by a CFL and USFL team, too: The guy can not play.

Palko has turned the ball over seven times in his two starts the past two weeks. The Chiefs are trying to get Kyle Orton up to speed to replace Palko, but that may not happen this week. Even if Orton does play, it's not like he's some great quarterback savior either. The Bears also are well acquainted with Orton since he played four years for them.

Chicago is playing top-notch defense. The Bears are holding opposing running backs to 3.2 yards per carry on 60 attempts during the last three weeks. The Chiefs have one of the worst rushing attacks since losing Jamaal Charles for the season. The three-headed monster of Thomas Jones, Dexter McCluster and Jackie Battle is a monster only to the Chiefs.

The Bears' pass defense has been even more effective than their run defense. Chicago has come up with 12 interceptions while allowing just five touchdown passes during the last six games, holding quarterbacks to 58.4 percent and 6.3 yards per attempt. Cornerback Charles Tillman is having a Pro Bowl type season. Palko has yet to throw a touchdown in his two starts.

Kansas City has scored the grand total of 25 points in its last four games, failing to break the 10-point barrier in any game during this span.

The Bears' offense should be better with Caleb Hanie making his second start and first at home. Matt Forte is having his finest season and Marion Barber has been surprising effective lately.

The Chiefs came out with a great effort at home playing on Sunday night last week, but they aren't nearly talented enough to hang close unless producing another "A" game. Even if they were to do that a second consecutive week - which is highly doubtful - their horrendous quarterback play would do them in.

This total is very low considering the skill position talent on these two teams. Rain is in the forecast, too, but Houston's Reliant Stadium has a retractable roof.

The Texans are vastly improved defensively, but they have not faced a strong offense in their last five games. During this span they've played Tennessee, Jacksonville, Cleveland, Tampa Bay and Jacksonville.

Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees are the only two outstanding quarterbacks Houston has gone against. Matt Ryan is far closer to those two than Blaine Gabbert and Colt McCoy.

The Falcons back Ryan with tremendous skill position balance in Michael Turner, Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez.

Atlanta ranks No. 2 in run defense. Houston's Arian Foster, though, is an elite runner and is healthy. Since returning from a hamstring injury, Foster has averaged 154 all-purpose yards per game.

The key is how many points can the Texans put up with third-string quarterback T.J. Yates. I say enough to get this comfortably over the total.

First off, the Texans have a tremendous 1-2 running attack of Foster and Ben Tate, who could start for a number of teams.

Second, Yates actually has a stronger arm and is more athletic than Matt Leinart. The Texans are high on Yates, who won't be afraid to throw downfield unlike dink-and-dunker Leinart. Yates also has a full week to prepare unlike last Sunday when he unexpectedly had to replace Leinart. Expect a much better performance from Yates this week.

Third, Andre Johnson is back. Before Johnson hurt his hamstring, he was in the argument for best wide receiver in the AFC.

Fourth, and this is huge, Atlanta has injuries in its secondary. Out is Brent Grimes, the Falcons' top cornerback. Also out is nickel back Kelvin Hayden. That's two of Atlanta's top three corners out leaving just Dunta Robinson, a former Texan who's having a bad season.

The Falcons' secondary was vulnerable even before these injuries ranking 23rd in pass defense.

Oklahoma State has had plenty of time to overcome its upset double-overtime loss to Iowa State. The Cowboys still have a chance, although a long one, of reaching the BCS title game with a victory here. The Sooners harbor no such hope with two defeats.

Oklahoma State is 13-6 ATS following a defeat. The Cowboys have covered 77 percent of the time during their last 22 games.

Oklahoma has injuries at the skill positions with the biggest being the loss of Ryan Broyles for the season with a knee injury. He may have been the best wide receiver in the nation. Broyles also was an elite punt returner.

The Cowboys rank 15th in pass efficiency defense and have 37 takeaways.

Both teams have explosive offenses and excellent quarterbacks, but the Cowboys are the more motivated team and have a special teams edge with Broyles out. Oklahoma State's Justin Gilbert is one of the most dangerous kickoff returners in the nation and dependable kicker Quinn Sharp owns a nation-best 50 kickoffs for touchbacks.

The Sooners aren't as explosive as they were before minus Broyles and running back Dominique Whaley.

Nevada is a very angry and frustrated team after blowing two second-half leads in its last two games losing to Louisiana Tech and Utah State. That cost the Wolf Pack a shot at winning the WAC.

It also leaves the Wolf Pack ready to put a pounding on Idaho, a perfect patsy. The 2-9 Vandals are one of the worst teams in the country ranking 112th on offense and 92nd on defense.

The Wolf Pack are 10-3 ATS when playing at home following consecutive losses.

Nevada coach Chris Ault will run up a score. The Wolf Pack are 23-8-1 ATS as a home favorite. They have scored an average of 64 points during the past three years facing Idaho and still have incentive to play hard.

The Wolf Pack are playing for bowl positioning. Nevada has the offense again to pile up points ranking No. 9 in rushing and No. 5 in total offense.

Idaho has failed to cover in 14 of its last 19 WAC games. The Vandals have allowed 42 and 49 points in their last two games. They are 1-6 ATS in their last seven regular-season games.

Seventh-ranked Houston and its star quarterback, Case Keenum, gets all the publicity as they go for a possible BCS berth. But Southern Mississippi has a very solid team as its 10 wins attest to.

The Golden Eagles haven't suffered a Conference USA loss by more than 13 points in more than four years. They have a better defense than Houston and can hang in and trade points with the Cougars.

Southern Mississippi ranks 15th in total yards at 469.8 per game and also is 15th in scoring putting up 36.9 points per contest. The Golden Eagles have racked up at least 500 yards of total offense during each of their last three games.

The Golden Eagles have a balanced attack, which is a key in keeping Houston's high-powered offense off the field and milk clock. The Cougars also haven't faced a defense as good as Southern Mississippi's this season.

This line is inflated, especially for a conference championship game. Double-digit favorites in conference title games are 6-14 ATS.

Yes, this is a joke matchup to decide the Pac-12 championship, but the line is an overreaction to UCLA's 50-0 loss to USC this past Saturday. The Bruins, aside from a long-standing rivalry with the Trojans, really had nothing at stake since USC is ineligible to go to a bowl game and thus could not represent the conference in the Rose Bowl.

The Bruins have much more at stake in this matchup. Not only are the Bruins playing for the title, but for great pride in this being Rick Neuheisel's final game as their coach. Neuheisel was popular with his players. They will play hard for him here.

Oregon has no real strong motivation. The Ducks do not have a shot of playing for the national championship with two defeats. So running up a score isn't going to count for style points.

The Bruins' strength is a solid running attack featuring the tandem of Johnathan Franklin and Derrick Coleman. They've combined to run for 1,555 yards and score 16 touchdowns. Franklin is averaging 6.1 yards per rush while Coleman averages 5.1 yards per carry.

This is a key strength for this huge of a spread because the Bruins can maintain possession and eat clock for long stretches thus keeping the ball out of the explosive Ducks' hands.

It's been an extremely disappointing season for South Florida. The Bulls' problems started on a Thursday night ESPN game, similar to this matchup, when they lost 44-7 on the road to Pittsburgh. That was the first of six losses in seven games for South Florida. They are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games.

It also was the seventh time in seven appearances the Bulls lost on a nationally televised Thursday game. I don't expect anything to change in this matchup with West Virginia needing a victory to have a shot at sharing the Big East crown and earning a BCS Bowl bid.

South Florida is just 1-5 in Big East home games since Skip Holtz too over with that lone win occurring last season against Rutgers by one point. West Virginia owns road victories against Rutgers and Cincinnati.

The Mountaineers traditionally have been tough away from home winning 35 of 51 road games since 2002. They defeated South Florida last year, 20-6, at home while holding the Bulls to an average of 16.8 points per game during the past six matchup.

South Florida has been disappointing on offense. Quarterback BJ Daniels has an injured shoulder. It's a plus if he's out, although I expect him to play. It won't matter because the Mountaineers are the better team and the spread is easy enough for them to cover.

The Saints can't tackle and the Giants have a vulnerable secondary. Given a fast track in a dome, I see this total going over.

The Giants are fourth in passing. They were able to pass on the 49ers two weeks ago scoring 20 points on San Francisco, which has given up the fewest points in the NFL. The Giants should have no trouble exceeding that total against the Saints, playing on carpet and against a much inferior defense.

The Saints, in turn, should be able to score at least 30 points. New Orleans ranks No. 1 in total offense and in passing offense.

In four games in the Louisiana Superdome this season, the Saints are averaging 39.7 points. That figure is a bit inflated since the Saints put up 62 points against the defenseless and demoralized Colts.

But in home games against the Bears and Texans, the Saints scored 30 and 40 points, respectively. Those two defenses are better than the Giants' defense.

The Giants are going to be without Michael Boley, a very underrated player and their best cover linebacker. The Giants have no defender who can handle Saints' tight end Jimmy Graham.

Note that the Giants are 18-7-1 to the over in their past 26 games versus NFC opponents.

There's a very good chance that Kyle Orton will be Kansas City's starting quarterback in Week 13.

That means another opportunity to fade Tyler Palko and the Chiefs. Palko is one of the worst quarterbacks I've ever seen start in the NFL. He couldn't produce against New England's weak pass defense this past Monday and now on a short week he's going to be terrible again against a much stronger defense.

Making matters worse for Palko is the Chiefs are without their best pass blocker, left guard Ryan Lilja, who is out with a concussion. The Chiefs lack a ground game with Jamaal Charles out to take the pressure off Palko.

The Steelers are rested and ready having been idle last week. Ben Roethlisberger has a thumb injury, but he had a similar injury in 2005 when the Steelers won the Super Bowl.

The Chiefs have allowed the fifth-most passing touchdowns and have the fewest sacks in the league. They are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games versus AFC teams.

Pittsburgh has done the job as a favorite covering eight of the last 11 times in that role.

Jay Cutler may have been playing his finest ball when he suffered a thumb injury. Caleb Hanie, his replacement, lacks Cutler's big arm.

But the Bears will be fine in this matchup with Hanie behind center. Matt Forte is having a great season and Oakland still hasn't solved their perennial run defense woes. Hanie, if you may recall, nearly led the Bears to an upset victory over Green Bay in the NFC title game after he replaced an ineffective and injured Cutler.

The Raiders may yet to prove to be the class of the AFC West - but this remains a very weak division. The Raiders aren't as discplined as the Bears and their veterans aren't as savvy as Chicago's key veterans such as Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs.

Carson Palmer is still learning Oakland's offense. The Raiders still won't have their best running back either, Darren McFadden. The Bears are a very opportunistic defense. They've picked off 11 passes in their last four games. Charles Tillman is playing as well as any cornerback.

Chicago is in a nice groove. You would have to go back to Week 5 to find the last time the Bears lost. They have held six straight foes to 24 points or less. In their last five games, the Bears have scored 37, 30, 24, 39 and 31 points.

The Raiders have good special teams, but Devin Hester trumps them. Sebastian Janikowski also still isn't 100 percent so probably no long field goals for the Raiders.

The Raiders lack the pedigree in this role having failed to cover 14 of the last 17 times they've been home favorites. They are not a team that can be relied on.

Offensive left tackle Trent Williams, wide receiver Santana Moss and safety LaRon Landry are three of the best players on the Redskins.

They are all finally healthy and expected to play in this matchup. Washington is as healthy as it has been since early in the season. That makes the Redskins dangerous in this matchup.

Rex Grossman isn't going to make anyone forget Aaron Rodgers. But Grossman is a better quarterback than John Beck. The Redskins have the better defense, leading the NFL in sacks and giving up just 11 touchdown passes.

Tarvaris Jackson has thrown one touchdown pass and been picked off six times since returning from a strained right pectoral four games ago. His passing yards have dropped during each of the last four weeks.

The Seahawks have a makeshift offensive line having lost the right side of their line a couple of weeks ago and are without their two top cornerbacks.

Seattle is off a road victory against NFC West Division rival St. Louis, 24-7. The Seahawks, though, do not have a good history following a victory going 7-18-1 ATS. They are 3-23-2 ATS following a win of 14 points or more.

The Bengals have produced two great efforts in a row in close losses to Pittsburgh and Baltimore the past two weeks. They are at Pittsburgh next week.

Even though this is a division game and in-state rivalry, it's going to prove too difficult for the young Bengals to give another great effort in this matchup. They are much better as underdogs than favorites having failed to cover 13 of the last 16 times they've been home chalk.

The Browns are limited offensively, but they do have several very good offensive linemen and are deep at tight end. Josh Cribbs remains a special teams weapon.

The Bengals are without their best cover cornerback, injured Leon Hall.

The Browns will play hard here. Their defense is respectable.

Cincinnati isn't a strong enough team to cover this kind of spread without playing its "A" or "B" game. The spot dictates that won't be the case.

The Bengals are going to struggle in a flat spot and with a huge look-ahead game. The Browns will take this one down to the wire. They are 7-2 ATS as a road 'dog of between 3 1/2 and 10 points.

The line keeps climbing in this matchup, but it's totally justified.

The Bills are playing terrible having dropped four of their last five while giving up an average of 35.3 points in their last three games.

Buffalo has marginal talent and limited depth. Now the Bills have been hit hard by injuries. In the last couple of weeks, they've lost their best offensive lineman (center Eric Wood), their best running back and most productive offensive player (Fred Jackson), wide receiver Donald Jones and cornerback Terrence McGee.

Ryan Fitzpatrick needs a strong supporting cast to cover up his weak arm and limited skills. The Bills don't have that and opposing defenses have figured out Buffalo's short passing game. Fitzpatrick is averaging two turnovers per game in his last six games. The Bills have scored the grand total of 26 points during their last three games - and that was with Jackson, who was their best running back by far.

The Jets rank eight in total defense and fifth in pass defense thanks in large part to Darrelle Revis, who remains the premier cornerback. He'll take on Steve Johnson, who is playing hurt and Buffalo's only consistent wide receiving threat.

The Jets have had four extra days to stew about their loss to Denver and Tim Tebow. Mark Sanchez didn't play well in that game. He has a history, though, of following a bad performance with a good one.

The Bills don't put pressure on the quarterback ranking 29th in sacks. They rate 26th in total defense and have given up the third-most rushing touchdowns. Shonn Greene is back healthy and has averaged 4.8 yards per carry in his last three games against Buffalo. Sanchez, given good run support, should be able to put up good passing numbers against the Bills and their beat-up secondary.

New York defeated Buffalo, 27-11, just three weeks ago when the Bills still had their confidence and swagger. That's all gone now. The Jets were 16 points better than and now they're home and facing a far more banged-up Bills squad.

Look for the Jets to easily defeat the Bills for the seventh time in the last eight meetings.

A great running attack and the league's No. 1 defense is more than enough for the Texans to cover this small number against a now dead Jaguars squad.

The Jaguars fell to 3-7 after failing to score from the one-yard line on the final play last Sunday against Cleveland. The Jaguars threw the ball instead of running Maurice Jones-Drew like they should have.

The Jaguars are down mentally and physically with numerous key defensive injuries, including injuries to their nose guard, linebacker and best cornerback. The Jaguars don't have nearly the talent or quarterbacking to overcome this.

Yes, Matt Leinart is Houston's new quarterback replacing injured Matt Schaub. But I would still take the veteran Leinart over rookie Blaine Gabbert, who is completing less than 49 percent of his passes and clearly has shown he's not close to being an NFL-caliber starting quarterback yet.

A big key for the Texans is getting premier wide receiver Andre Johnson back. He's missed the last six games with a hamstring injury. The rested Texans wanted to wait until after their bye, which was last week, to have Johnson back at full strength.

Arian Foster and Ben Tate have combined to run for 520 yards and score five touchdowns in Houston's last three games. The Texans, ranked No. 2 in rushing, will be even stronger on the ground with defenses having to account for Johnson.

The Jaguars gave up 115 yards rushing to plodding third-stringer Chris Ogbonnaya last week. It's scary to think what Foster can do against the Jaguars, whose run defense is vulnerable following recent injuries.

The Texans held Jacksonville to just 160 yards of offense when they beat them 24-14 in Week 8. The Texans may have shut out the Jaguars in that game if not for two turnovers in their own territory. That shouldn't happen again and the score should be even more lopsided in Houston's favor this time around.

First off, note the site. This is not a home game for Baylor. It's at Cowboy Stadium in Arlington.

Second is Baylor being in a huge letdown spot. The Bears just came off an historic upset of Oklahoma, winning on a last-minute drive on a 34-yard touchdown pass from Robert Griffin III to Terrance Williams with eight second remining. Baylor was 0-20 versus Oklahoma coming into the game.

The only other team to beat Oklahoma happens to be Texas Tech. That was the Red Raiders' biggest win of the season and they were upset the following week by Iowa State. Can Baylor avoid a post-Oklahoma hangover?

Perhaps, but the Bears have to do it in convincing style to cover this spread. The Bears already have a bowl locked up. That's not the case with Texas Tech.

The Red Raiders have appeared in a bowl game during each of the last 11 seasons. However, they don't have a sixth win yet. This is their last chance. They will be going all out to extend their Big 12 Conference record bowl eligibility streak to 19.

Third, Texas Tech has beaten Baylor 15 times in a row. So the Red Raiders certainly won't feel outclassed.

Playing in Ruston, Louisiana is never easy. That's factored into the line. But traveling there on a holiday weekend certainly is no fun for New Mexico State, which has no conference or bowl hope being 4-7 and 2-3 in the Western Athletic Conference.

Louisiana Tech has covered 15 of its last 22 home contests. The Bulldogs are 8-2 ATS during their past 10 November games.

The Aggies are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 road contests versus a team with a winning home mark. This is the Aggies' second road trip in two weeks and third in four weeks. They close their season at home next week against Utah State. During the past two weeks, the Aggies have lost on the road 63-16 to Georgia and 42-7 to BYU.

Look for the Aggies to lay an egg in this matchup.

Louisiana Tech has won and covered six in a row. The Bulldogs are playing for the WAC title. A win guaranteeds them at least a share of the title. Louisiana Tech coach Sonny Dykes didn't mince words this week saying this is his team's biggest game of the year.

The Bulldogs have a pass-heavy offense and a quick defensive unit, two key elements in covering a big number.

First off, note the site. This is not a home game for Baylor. It's at Cowboy Stadium in Arlington.

Second is Baylor being in a huge letdown spot. The Bears just came off an historic upset of Oklahoma, winning on a last-minute drive on a 34-yard touchdown pass from Robert Griffin III to Terrance Williams with eight second remining. Baylor was 0-20 versus Oklahoma coming into the game.

The only other team to beat Oklahoma happens to be Texas Tech. That was the Red Raiders' biggest win of the season and they were upset the following week by Iowa State. Can Baylor avoid a post-Oklahoma hangover?

Perhaps, but the Bears have to do it in convincing style to cover this spread. The Bears already have a bowl locked up. That's not the case with Texas Tech.

The Red Raiders have appeared in a bowl game during each of the last 11 seasons. However, they don't have a sixth win yet. This is their last chance. They will be going all out to extend their Big 12 Conference record bowl eligibility streak to 19.

Third, Texas Tech has beaten Baylor 15 times in a row. So the Red Raiders certainly won't feel outclassed.

After opening with six consecutive victories, Illinois has lost five in a row.

The Illini have a bowl berth locked up, but they are a dead team and this is a dead spot. A victoy against Minnesota isn't going to raise anyone's perceptions about the Illini.

The Gophers have covered their eight games in November. This is Minnesota's final game. The Gophers have 17 seniors. A strong Gophers' effort should be forthcoming.

Minnesota beat Illiniois last year. Two years ago the Gophers lost to the Illini by just three points and in 2008 they beat Illini. So the Gophers certainly shouldn't lack for confidence.

Note, too, that Illini is 6-14 ATS against foes with a losing record. Illinois might also be missing running back Donovan Young, who has the second-highest rushing average on the team. He's nursing a sprained ankle.

Houston is ranked eighth in the country. You can argue if the Cougars are deserving of that high ranking.

But it does mean the unbeaten Cougars have a shot at playing in a BCS Bowl, something Conference USA officials would like very much to happen because of a big payday.

So I expect the Cougars to get the calls in their road matchup against Tulsa.

Both teams have outstanding offenses. Houston, though, has greatly improved its defense giving up 11 points less than last year at 21.4 points per game. The Cougars are 6-0 ATS the past six times they've been chalk.

Case Keenum gives the Cougars an edge. He missed last year's game against Tulsa with a knee injury and the Cougars lost 28-25.

Now Keenum and Houston gets its revenge, which would please Conference USA officials very much.

The combination of playing a weak schedule and traveling from West to East for a Thursday game will be too much for the 49ers to overcome against Baltimore.

The Ravens have lost just five times in 29 home games under John Harbaugh covering 63 percent of their home contests.

San Francisco has an outstanding defense, but so does Baltimore and the Ravens have played the more difficult schedule. The Ravens rank in the top five in fewest points allowed, total defense and run defense.

Frank Gore is going to have problems and when that happens San Francisco is in trouble. The 49ers lack a vertical attack with Alex Smith, who is merely a glorified game manager.

Despite their glittering 9-1 record, the 49ers actually have been outgained on the season. They are just plus four in first downs.

The Ravens have the more balanced attack. The 49ers are difficult to run on, but they can be passed on. Joe Flacco has a history of playing much better at home. Anquan Boldin is a dependable receiver and Torrey Smith gives the Ravens a much needed deep threat.

The 49ers have faced only two winning teams during their past seven games. The situation is terrible for them having to go cross country on a short week costing them two days of practice. This marks the 49ers' fifth road trip where at least a two-hour time change is involved. That takes a toll, especially without adequate preparation time for an interconference foe they last played in 2007.

From the very start Texas A&M has been overrated. And the Aggies still are. It sets up a great play on Texas, whose record is misleading.

The Longhorns are a ho-hum 6-4, but they are just two calls away from behind 8-2 having lost to Missouri and Kansas State on bad breaks during the past two weeks. The marketplace sees the Longhorns losing to Kansas State this past Saturday, 17-13, at home. Overlooked in that defeat, though, was that Texas more than doubled Kansas State's yardage outgaining the Wildcats, 310-121.

Texas lost to Missouri two weeks ago in part because it was missing Malcolm Brown and Joe Bergeron, the team's two top rushers, and then lost No. 3 rusher Foswhitt Whitaker during the game.

Now Bergeron and Brown are back. The Longhorns also could get back Jaxon Shipley, their second-leading receiver. Without these key skill position players, the Longhorns have managed just one touchdown in the last two weeks.

This is what the market is reacting to. But these players are expected back.

While things are looking up on the injury front for Texas, the Aggies probably are going to be without their two best running backs. Christine Michael was lost for the season after he suffered an ACL tear against Oklahoma three weeks ago. Cyrus Gray suffered a stress fracture in his left shoulder this past Saturday and he's unlikely to play either. The Aggies don't have another runner who has rushed for 100 yards.

Redshirt freshman Ben Malena and true freshman Will Randolph will be the Aggies' ballcarriers if Gray can't go. They have a combined 29 carries for 136 yards and two scores in the their careers. Gray and Michael, by comparison, have a combined 1,073 carries for 5,672 yards and 52 touchdowns.

Texas ranks 10th in total defense. The Longhorns are giving up eight fewer points per game than Texas A&M, which ranks 76th in total defense and 118th in pass defense. This is a fair comparison, too, given that the teams have faced six common foes. Texas has a star in linebacker Emmanuel Acho and its highly-touted defensive recruits are playing better as the season goes on.

Texas A&M is playing for the 11th time in 11 weeks. That's telling because the Aggies lack depth. The short week hurts Texas A&M more.

Note, too, the Aggies have failed to cover seven of the past nine times they've been favored.

The Dolphins are far from the worst team in the league. Miami has proven that with three consecutive victories.

But I see the Dolphins lacking motivation having to travel to Dallas on a short week to play on Thanksgiving. Playing on turkey day doesn't bother the Cowboys. They've covered in their last seven Thanksgiving games, winning five of those matchups by 10 or more points.

The Dolphins can't match Dallas' explosiveness. Matt Moore can't compare to Tony Romo, who is 18-2 in November. Romo can run hot and cold and right now he's burning. In his last three games, Romo is 65-for-90 for 741 yards with eight touchdown throws and no interceptions.

Romo now has a healthy Felix Jones to join DeMarco Murray, Dez Bryant and Jason Witten giving the Cowboys far more firepower than the Dolphins.

Miami's victories have been against Kansas City, Washington and Buffalo. Not one of those teams is above .500. The Dolphins managed just 242 yards of offense last week against a bad Buffalo defense.

The Cowboys' defense is getting better as the players adjust to highly-respected defensive coordinator Rob Ryan. Sean Lee, a very underrated linebacker, is back in the lineup and the Cowboys also could get back cornerback Mike Jenkins back.

The Dolphins were on pace to give up the most sacks in franchise history before taking on the pass rush-challenged Bills. They'll have problems keeping DeMarcus Ware away from Moore.

Detroit is much improved. But let's not get ahead of ourselves.

The Lions still aren't close to being in the Packers' class. Green Bay has much more overall talent, balance and depth. The Lions have an outstanding defensive front, but their linebackers and defensive backs aren't anything special and their offensive line isn't very good.

The Lions also don't have a running back threat with Jahvid Best out with a concussion. Kevin Smith isn't going to run on the Packers' 12th-ranked run defense like he did last week against Carolina's weak run defense.

The Panthers put up 35 points on the Lions last week. How many can the Packers score? Green Bay is averaging an NFL-best 35.5 points per game. This is a dome setting where the Packers are at their most explosive. Green Bay is averaging 34.2 points in its last four dome games.

Matthew Stafford is a rising star. But Aaron Rodgers trumps him and takes better care of the ball. Stafford can move the ball on any defense. The Packers yield big yardage, but they rank 15th in points allowed at 21.2. They are a true bend-but-don't-break defense with a knack for coming up with takeaways. Green Bay leads the league in interceptions, picking off at least one pass during the last nine games.

The Packers were flat last week in dispatching Tampa Bay. They will perceive a strong challenge here and be highly motivated especially after the Lions knocked out Rodgers in last season's home victory against the Packers.

Despite inflated pointspreads, the undefeated Packers have covered 70 percent of their games this season. They are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games. Green Bay also is 19-6-1 ATS when facing a foe with a winning home mark.

The Lions are not used to pressure situations like this. They have continually laid an egg on Thanksgiving going 0-7 straight-up and ATS the past seven years on turkey day losing by an average of 22.9 points.

Going into Monday all the money has been on New England. The marketplace has the right side.

The Patriots should destroy Kansas City. Not only do the Patriots match up well to Kansas City, but the Chiefs are at a severe disadvantage.

If you didn't like Matt Cassel wait unti you see Tyler Palko. Then you'll realize why Cassel didn't lose his starting job before suffering an injury.

A career journeyman with 13 NFL passes, Palko is terrible. This is his NFL starting debut and he's going against an improving Patriots defense and wily Bill Belichick, who has been known to destroy rookie quarterbacks.

How bad is Pelko? In his preseason appearances he has a 5-to-12 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He's also left-handed, which makes him even more vulnerable since tackle Barry Richardson will be on his blind side. Richardson is a huge liability in pass protection.

The Chiefs will be looking to run often, but the Patriots have shored up their rush defense.

The Chiefs rank last in sacks. Their secondary has faced either young or struggling quarterbacks. Tom Brady, with ample time to throw, should pick apart the Chiefs, which are missing their best defensive back, safety Eric Berry.

Falcons coach Mike Smith is in the running for bonehead coaching move of the season after having his team go for a first-down on a fourth-and-one from his own 29 in overtime against New Orleans last week.

That move, of course, backfired. Smith and the Atlanta players have been hearing about it all week. They are anxious to end their frustrations against Tennessee.

If you discount games against the Saints, the Falcons have won 20 of their last 22 regular-season home contests. They have been golden in this price range covering eight of the last 10 times they've been favored in the 3 1/2 to 10 point range at home.

Matt Ryan has a 14-to-two touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last eight November games. He has a strong history of playing much better in Georgia Dome than on the road.

The Titans have failed to cover in six of their past nine road contests. They are 6-13 ATS versus opponents with a winning record. Their passing attack is down with top receiver Kenny Britt out for the season.

The Falcons have allowed an average of 16.5 points in their last four games with three of those opponents having strong offenses - the Panthers, Lions and Saints. The Titans remain reliant on Chris Johnson, who finally showed some signs of breaking out of his season-long slump in the second half of last week's game against Carolina.

The Panthers do not have a good defense, however. The Falcons rank No. 3 in run defense. Johnson still is not close to being the back he was in 2009. The Titans don't have enough ammunition to trade points with Ryan.