Except for a four-point loss last year to top-ranked Alabama, LSU would have a 28-game home winning streak. The Tigers have won 14 of their last 15 SEC games at home.


So Florida is bucking a lot here. I think Florida is good, but not in LSU's class. I see the Gators' defense getting exposed.


LSU has scored at least 35 points in its last six games. Zach Mettenberger could be the most improved quarterback in the country. The Tigers could have the best wide receiving tandem in the country, too, with Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry. Jeremy Hill is a stud running back.


The Gators haven't seen this kind of balanced attack with so many dangerous skill position players in one lineup. Florida's three SEC games this season have been against Tennessee, Kentucky and Arkansas. Those three teams rank as the worst offensive teams in the league.


The Gators have failed to cover six of the last eight times they've met an opponent with a winning record. I'm not sold on Florida backup quarterback Tyler Murphy, who replaced injured Jeff Driskel. I see him getting exposed, too, in this toughest of road settings.

The Giants rank last in scoring defense. They've given up at least 31 points in every game. It's safe to say the Bears, with their new emphasis on passing more and using a quick tempo offense, are going to put up their share of points.


Chicago's pass protection has been much improved this season. Jay Cutler is on pace to set a career best in touchdown passes and completion percentage. The Giants have just five sacks, fewest in the NFC.


The Giants are going to be forced to do a lot of passing as their best running back, David Wilson, is out with a neck injury. Eli Manning has been picked off 12 times. No team is better than the Bears in running back defensive scores for touchdowns.


Manning does have dangerous receiving weapons, though, in Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks and Reuben Randle.


The weather can be tricky in Chicago but the forecast is good with very little wind.

Being the visiting team on a Thursday game is hard enough. But when you're 0-5 like the Giants and already out of playoff contention it becomes especially rough.


The Giants' winless record isn't a fluke. Their offensive line is a major liability, there is no semblance of a ground game with David Wilson out and the defense is a mess yielding an NFL-high 36.4 points per game while recording only five sacks.


The Giants are a hideous minus 13 in turnover ratio. The Bears have one of the most opportunistic defenses in football. Chicago led the league in takeaways last year and have 14 this season. No team has returned more of their takeaways for touchdowns than Chicago during the past two seasons.


New York has won just three of its last 13 games and is 0-7 ATS in its past seven away games.


The Bears are off a home loss to the Saints. They are in prime position to take their frustrations out on the morale-challenged Giants. Jay Cutler is deadly with time to pass and now has two excellent tall targets to throw to in Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery.

A turnover-prone struggling rookie quarterback, a battered below-average wide receiving corps and mediocre running backs are not the formula for putting up many points.



That sums up the Jets' situation on offense where Geno Smith has committed 11 turnovers and been sacked 14 times. New York has multiple injuries to its receivers with its best, Santonio Holmes, out with a hamstring injury.



Falcons defensive coordinator Mike Nolan runs a complex scheme that figures to cause Smith lots of problems. No quarterback has lost more yardage being sacked than Smith. And Smith doesn't have a reliable ground attack either to take the pressure off him against the Falcons, who ranked fifth in run defense going into Sunday.



The flip side is the Falcons are going to have problems putting up touchdowns, too. Atlanta has key injuries on offense where Steven Jackson and left tackle Sam Baker are out and wide receiver Roddy White has done nothing and shouldn't even be playing as he deals with a lingering high ankle sprain. The Falcons would be wise to sit White out since they have a bye in Week 6. Julio Jones isn't 100 percent either.



New York ranked No. 2 in total defense entering Sunday and fourth in rushing defense. The Falcons have two pedestrian runners - Jacquizz Rodgers and Jason Snelling - with Jackson missing. The Jets held Doug Martin, Stevan Ridley, C.J. Spiller and Chris Johnson to an average of 2.0 yards per carry during their first four games. Only Martin managed more than 40 yards against the Jets on the ground and it took him 24 carries to rush for 65 yards.



The Jets don't get much good ink. But they are an underrated defensive club that has survived the departure of Darrelle Revis without a noticeable drop in overall talent. Rex Ryan is a loud mouth, but his defense does play hard for him. They can take advantage of a weak Atlanta offensive line.

Philip Rivers is having a nice comeback season. But public perception of the Chargers, based on this line, is way out of whack.



San Diego isn't nearly good enough to be laying this high of a road number against a division foe. It should be noted that while the Chargers have won eight of the last nine in this series - with much stronger teams than their current one - the underdog has covered the past eight times.



The Raiders rank near the bottom in overall talent. They likely will be missing their best skill position player in Darren McFadden. However, Terrelle Pryor is back this week. Pryor is much improved, one of the best running quarterbacks in the NFL. He upgrades Oakland's offense and covers up many of the Raiders' offensive line warts.



The Raiders are far more dangerous with Pryor than with Matt Flynn, who does not fit Oakland's system at all.



Rivers is a name player. However, the Chargers aren't any better than Oakland in the trenches. San Diego has a cluster injury problem in its offensive line and ranks 30th in total defense giving up 432.8 yards per game. The Chargers are 29th in pass defense and 26th in run defense. San Diego ranks last in yards per play at 6.7.



The Chargers are overly dependent on Rivers. They lack a deep threat and have a pedestrian ground attack. The Raiders have a veteran secondary with Charles Woodson, Tracy Porter and Mike Jenkins. These guys have all made big plays in their career and they certainly are capable of doing it again.

I feel a lot better about the Ravens now that they're going back to featuring Ray Rice rather than Joe Flacco. The right formula for Baltimore is using Rice to set up Flacco rather than the other way around. It's a plus for Baltimore if Cameron Wake, the Dolphins' star pass rusher, has to miss a second straight game. Stealing Eugene Monroe from Jacksonville is a big plus for the Ravens' offensive line.


Baltimore's defense is better than perceived. The Ravens being torched by Peyton Manning on opening night doesn't look so bad now. Since that game, the Ravens defense has held their last three opponents - Browns, Texans and Bills - to a combined two touchdowns. Both of them were scored by the Bills last week when Flacco was picked off five times.


Miami isn't that good. The Dolphins have been outgained in every game. Ryan Tannehill has been sacked a league-high 18 times. He's vulnerable to Baltimore's blitzes and to Terrell Suggs, one of the top pass rushers in football.


The Dolphins have had one less day to practice after playing this past Monday night. Miami has covered only 32 percent during the past 34 times it has been home chalk.


The Ravens, on the other hand, are 6-2 ATS as road 'dogs during the last three years.

Sean Payton is getting the Saints' offense back into high gear as we head into Week 5. He's surrounded the magnificent Drew Brees with dangerous weapons, including the hardest-to-defend tight end in football, Jimmy Graham.


The Saints, though, are going to be on a grass field facing the Bears' Cover 2 defense that has bothered them in the past. Chicago's Cover 2, though, isn't as good as it once was when Brian Urlacher patrolled the middle and defensive-minded Lovie Smith was the head coach.


Payton has two aces to beat the Bears in their Cover 2 - Graham working the open middle and dangerous Darren Sproles catching passes out of the backfield.


The Bears' defense looks better than what it is because they have an amazing knack for not only coming up with turnovers, but returning those turnovers for touchdowns. No defense has brought back more takeaways for touchdowns during the past two years than the Bears.


Marc Trestman has upgraded Chicago's offense. The Saints' defense isn't nearly as good as it has looked. They have multiple injuries in their defensive front seven that the brain trust of Trestman and Jay Cutler can exploit. The Bears' pass protection has held up well and Matt Forte is having a big season. He's as dangerous as Sproles on passes out of the backfield.


The chances of defensive scores and special teams touchdowns are increased, too, with the Bears.


The over has cashed in Chicago's last six games, while the Saints have gone over in 14 of their last 20 games against NFC opponents.

I want Stanford in this rare revenge spot for the Cardinal. The Huskies dealt the Cardinal their only Pac-12 loss last season.



Stanford's quarterback in that game was Josh Nunes. The Cardinal has a much better quarter now with Kevin Hogan. The Cardinals are 9-0 with Hogan behind center.



Just two years ago, Stanford blasted Washington, 65-21. Washington has improved, so has Stanford. The Cardinal are 5-0 SU and ATS in a revenge spot after losing the previous season either as a favorite or underdog up to five points.



This is the Huskies' first true road game. The Huskies also host Oregon next week in their biggest home game. They also are dealing with distracting rumors that Huskies coach Steve Sarkisian could be the next USC coach.

Considering how well these offenses are in sync, I see this total as being too low.



Missouri is averaging 45.5 points. That's eighth best in the nation. James Franklin has erased doubts about his talents and ability to stay healthy by having a big season. He's thrown for 1,129 yards and nine touchdowns.



The Tigers are well balanced with two good runners and a top receiver in Dorial Green-Beckham.



Vanderbilt has stepped up its offense. The Commodores are now averaging 34.8 points per game. Austyn Carta-Samuels has completed 73.2 percent of his throws during the last two games. He has one of the top wide receivers in the country in Jordan Matthews.

Huge letdown spot for East Carolina. The Pirates upset in-state rival North Carolina in grand style last week. They are 1-5 ATS the following week after playing the Tar Heels.



The Pirates also are 2-10 ATS following a victory.



Middle Tennessee has extra prep time and will be highly motivated. This is the Blue Raiders' first home game as a member of Conference USA.

Army wasn't even certain it was going to play due to the government shutdown.



Boston College is in revenge mode after Army upset the Eagles, 34-31, at home last year.



First-year coach Steve Addazio is trying to resurrect the Eagles. He has a powerful offense at his disposal with excellent talent at the skill positions.



Addazio is familiar with Army and its unorthodox option attack having been the coach at Temple during the two previous seasons.



While Army was feasting against weakling Louisiana Tech last week, the Eagles were building a 17-3 lead over Florida State before losing. In their last game previous to that one, the Eagles were at USC.



So this is a huge step down for the Eagles. Army has failed to cover seven of the last eight times following a win.

This is a huge game Indiana, which has bowl aspirations and needs to win this home game.



The Hooisers are showing improvement under third-year coach Kevin Wilson. Wilson played a lot of underclassmen last year. The Hooisers are more experienced and can put up points with their high octane offense.



Under Wilson, the Hooisers have passed for more than 300 yards in 16 straight games. Indiana is 7-0 ATS at home when facing a winning road opponent.



Penn State has an under-the-radar injury. The Nittany Lions will be without their regular place-holder.

At some point the oddsmaker has to realize BYU doesn't have a very good offense. The Cougars have gone under the total in their last two games by a combined 39 points.


BYU does play outstanding defense under Bronco Mendenhall. Utah State, though, has kept up its outstanding defensive play, too, despite a coaching change from Gary Andersen to Matt Wells.


There was a combined total of just nine points scored when then these two teams met last season. It was the sixth straight time the under has cashed in this series.


The Cougars have gone under in 11 of their last 12 Friday games. Utah State has gone under during the last five times it has played on Friday.


The under has cashed in 14 of Utah State's last 20 games. The Aggies have excellent linebackers. BYU has had problems passing. The Cougars managed only 16 points versus Virginia and 13 against Utah. They were held to under 200 yards in each of those games.

The common theme is that this is a matchup of two bad football teams. That's only part true. The Browns, now that they've found the right quarterback and have dynamite wide receiver Josh Gordon back to go with an underrated defense, are not far from respectability.


The Bills are terrible, totally reliant on coming up with turnovers to be able to stay in games.


The combination of the Bills traveling on a short week, having their best player limited, dealing with a cluster injury problem in their secondary and going against a fired-up Browns squad playing their best ball puts me on the favorite.


Cleveland ranks third in total defense and has allowed only two touchdown passes. The Bills are running a limited offense for rookie E.J. Manuel. They are in trouble here with a short preparation week and having C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson banged-up. Doug Marrone has yet to figure out how to get the dangerous Spiller in space. Spiller isn't a given either to play after suffering an ankle injury last week.


Buffalo has lost 14 of its last 16 away games, going 4-11-1 ATS. The Bills also are 3-11-1 ATS following a victory.


Brian Hoyer has surprised his critics. He's been aggressive with his throws and has two outstanding targets in Gordon and tight end Jordan Cameron, who is emerging as the second-best tight end next to Jimmy Graham. These two should have a big night operating against a depleted Buffalo secondary that could be without three starters again. The Browns really don't need overrated Trent Richardson and his 2.9 yards per carry average since they've become a passing team.

Iowa State can be tough during midweek home games as Oklahoma State so notably discovered the hard way two years ago. Texas has been one of the biggest disappointments in college football. But I see the Longhorns coming back. This is their opportunity following a bye and they won't be taking Iowa State lightly even though the Cyclones aren't very good this year.



This is a chance for redemption on national television for the Longhorns, who have been ripped all year.



Iowa State lost to Northern Iowa by eight points, lost to Iowa by six points in a game that was more lopsided than the final score with the Hawkeyes controlling the ball more than 16 minutes longer than the Cyclones. The Cyclones did defeat Tulsa, but the Golden Hurricane are way down this season.



The Cyclones have failed to cover during their last four home games.



Texas has a decided edge in talent. The key for the Longhorns is stopping the run game. They couldn't handle BYU and Mississippi. Iowa State is a big step down. The Longhorns held Kansas State to 115 rushing yards in their last game. A change in defensive coordinators appears to have helped. It certainly got the players' attention.



It's easy to pick on Texas, but Iowa State is allowing more than 400 yards of offense per game and that's been against Iowa, UNI and Tulsa. Those aren't exactly offensive powerhouses.


The Longhorns find redemption here.

Both Miami and New Orleans are 3-0. But the Saints are the more legitimate undefeated team. Miami has been outgained in each of its three games.


The Dolphins are improved, but they are far from an elite team.


The Saints are regaining elite status with Sean Payton back coaching. New Orleans has won AND covered its last 11 home games when Payton has been its coach. The Saints are also 19-6-1 ATS when hosting a non-division opponent and have won eight straight games on Monday night. They are used to center stage. The Dolphins aren't.


Both teams have trouble running the ball, but the Saints don't need an effective ground attack because they have one of the four best quarterbacks in football in Drew Brees and the No. 1 tight end, Jimmy Graham. Payton and Brees mastermind a highly effective air attack that no team has been able to stop, especially inside the Louisiana Superdome's fast track.


The Saints' defense is highly improved under new coordinator Rob Ryan. The Saints defense has given up just 31 points in dispatching the Falcons, Buccaneers and Cardinals. A key to the Saints' defensive turnaround is a better rush. The Dolphins have allowed 14 sacks and rank 26th in total yards.

The Cardinals keep suffering injuries on defense, have yet to figure out an effective offense and are making their third long trip in four weeks making this a bad situational spot for them.


Tampa Bay has some team friction. Josh Freeman has been disappointing so far. But the Bucs' defense has been outstanding and their offensive line should get even better now that Pro Bowl guard Carl Nicks has returned.


The Bucs have given up just four touchdowns despite having faced New Orleans and New England as two of their three opponents. Their secondary is much improved with the addition of Darrelle Revis. This is important because the Cardinals have become a heavy passing team with the addition of quarterback Carson Palmer and new head coach Bruce Arians.


The Cardinals haven't played well in their last two games. They have yet to establish a ground game or protect the immobile Palmer. Arizona's best player, wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald, has been less than 100 percent because of a hamstring injury.


Arizona has lost four defensive starters and will be without suspended linebacker Daryl Washington. The Buccaneers have skill position talent with Doug Martin, Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams to take advantage especially with Nicks solidifying the offensive line.

Certainly I respect the undefeated Seahawks. But I'm not ready to anoint them as the best team in football, or to agree that they should be a road favorite against the Texans. The Seahawks were very fortunate to beat Carolina in their only other road game this season.


An early start time and a cluster injury problem on their offensive line isn't going to help the Seahawks.


The Seahawks already are without their best offensive lineman, left tackle Russell Okung. Now they aren't likely to have center Max Unger and right tackle Breno Giacomini. Both are listed as doubtful. This should set up more dominating performances from dominant defensive players J.J. Watt and Brian Cushing.


The Seahawks are ground-oriented. Russell Wilson has attempted the fewest passes in the league of any starting quarterback. He has no marquee receivers. The Texans are giving up just 3.2 yards per run, fifth-lowest in the league.


Seattle has been playing great defense. The Texans have a balanced attack, though. Their passing attack gets a big boost as Andre Johnson is expected to play.


The Texans have won nine of their last 11 home games. The Seahawks aren't nearly as intimidating away from their noisy outdoor stadium. The Texans have been a strong September team going 10-3 since 2010. They also are 10-1 ATS in Week 4 the past 11 years.

Once again the defending world champion Ravens aren't getting enough respect. Yes, they are down weapons and Ray Rice is a game-time decision.


But the Ravens still are far superior to the Bills, especially considering Buffalo's many injuries on defense. No teams has suffered as many key injuries on defense as have the Bills especially in their secondary. Santonio Holmes and Stephen Hill had big games last week for the Jets against the Bills' depleted secondary. Those two hadn't done anything all season.


Joe Flacco is set up to have his best game of the season. This is his strongest matchup. The Ravens should be able to run the ball, too, with capable backup Bernard Pierce if Rice can't go. The Bills have allowed the Jets, Panthers and Patriots to average 4.68 yards per rush. We're talking about unsung ball carriers such as Bilal Powell and Shane Vereen.


Despite losing Ray Lewis to retirement, Baltimore's defense still remains solid with plenty of talent. The Ravens haven't allowed a touchdown during their last two games. The Ravens are sixth in sacks. Terrell Suggs can cause rookie dink-and-dunk quarterback E.J. Manuel plenty of trouble.


The Bills haven't done a good job of getting dynamic running back C.J. Spiller in space. The Ravens are giving up just 3.3 yards on the ground per rush.

The Bears get a lot of takeaways, but their defense has regressed and isn't that strong anymore ranking 25th in total defense and 29th in sacks. Chicago's aged defense is especially vulnerable on carpet and missing Pro Bowl defensive tackle Henry Melton. Cornerback Charles Tillman, who usually is on Calvin Johnson, isn't 100 percent dealing with groin and knee injuries. He missed 22 snaps last week.


Matthew Stafford has major weapons to take advantage with Johnson and Reggie Bush back in the lineup.


The Bears are going to get their points, too, against Detroit's weak secondary. Jay Cutler is on pace to set career highs in touchdown throws and completions. Cutler is playing better than he ever has in a Bears uniform helped by better pass protection and head coach Marc Trestman, a quarterback guru coach.


Look for Brandon Marshall and Matt Forte to have big performances in support of Cutler. Marshall primarily will be operating against 33-year-old washed-up cornerback Rashean Mathis. Forte has a strong history against the Lions gaining a combined 1,200 yards rushing and receiving and scoring nine touchdowns in the last 10 meetings, nine of which have been won by Chicago.

Georgia has home field, which accounts for the point spread. However, the Bulldogs also have the better quarterback and have played a much tougher schedule than LSU.



The Bulldogs are treating this matchup as a BCS National Championship Playoff game, which in reality it is for them since Georgia already has one loss. That defeat came in a shootout to third-ranked Clemson.



While LSU has played UAB, Kent State and Auburn in its last three games, the Bulldogs have had to play Clemson and South Carolina. The Tigers are 1-3 ATS in their last four SEC road matchups.



Zach Mettenberger has surprised this season putting up excellent passing numbers against inferior competition. This will be a step up and a real test for him. Georgia's Aaron Murray is one of the premier quarterbacks in the country. I like him better than Mettenberger.

First off, the Tar Heels have dominated this series recently winning and covering the last four. All of the victories have been by at least 14 points.



This is a step down in class for the Tar Heels, who already have faced South Carolina and Georgia Tech.



North Carolina is an improving team. The Tar Heels are in an angry mood, too, after blowing a 13-point lead on the road against Georgia Tech last week.



The Tar Heels beat Middle Tennessee, 40-20, two games ago. East Carolina is similar to Middle Tennessee.



The Pirates have given up 12 sacks, average just 2.4 yards rushing and rank 97th in pass defense. They've fallen victim to Bryn Renner in previous years and I see the North Carolina quarterback having another big game against them. He has three excellent receiving targets.



East Carolina has a poor track record versus ACC opponents losing 11 of 12 times to them.

Pittsburgh scored more than this total by itself last week putting up 58. That was against defenseless Duke, though. Can the Panthers maintain their huge offensive input?



Their offense is much improved and quarterback Tom Savage now is playing with a lot of confidence. The Panthers have scored a combined 107 points in their last two games.



Savage has one of the best wide receivers in the country in Devin Street and true freshman Tyler Boyd emerged to haul in three touchdowns against Duke. Boyd has been over 130 receiving yards each of the last two weeks. The Panthers must have a balanced attack, though, to make Savage most effective and they've been getting that from running back James Conner, who has rushed for nearly 300 yards and scored three touchdowns the past two weeks.



Virginia put up 49 points last week against VMI. The Cavaliers have a potential dual threat in quarterback David Wattford, who is a better runner than passer at this stage. The Cavaliers had two runners produce 100 yards rushing so Wattford has the ground attack to set up play-action.

San Jose State disappointed a lot of sharps last week losing on the road to Minnesota, 43-24.


That wasn't the time to play the Spartans, though. This is.


This is San Jose State's only home game during a five-week period. The Spartans have played at Stanford and Minnesota the past two weeks. After this game, they return to the road to face Hawaii and Colorado State.


San Jose State, with its new 3-4 defense, matches up better to pass-oriented spread offenses that many Mountain West Conference teams employ. It was not a good matchup for San Jose State playing physical, power runner teams Stanford and Minnesota. The Spartans were bothered by the size of players in the Pac-12 and Big Ten. Now they are in their element taking on a fellow Mountain West Conference team.


The Spartans will be sky high for this rare nationally televised home game. The Spartans have covered in seven of their last eight Mountain West games and are 6-2 ATS at home. They also have covered six of the past seven times off an ATS loss.


Utah State has an excellent quarterback in Chuckie Keeton. But San Jose State has a great quarterback with David Fales. He lost star wide receiver Noel Grigsby, but still has other excellent receiving options, including Chandler Jones and tight end Billy Freeman.


Utah State is traveling on a short week after playing a huge road game last Saturday against USC. The Aggies covered the spread, but fell 17-14 to the Trojans. The Aggies played their guts out in that game so having one less day to prepare and rest factors.

Could the 49ers lose three in a row for the first time in the Jim Harbaugh era?


I don't see it happening here.


The 49ers' problems are well documented. Their offense hasn't moved the ball the past two weeks. Aldon Smith is suspended. Patrick Willis is hurt and may not play. Vernon Davis is a game-time decision. Yes, the 49ers have lost their mojo. But they still are much superior to the Rams.


The Rams very well could be 0-3 if not for the Cardinals blowing an 11-point fourth-quarter lead against them opening week. The Rams fell 21 points behind the Falcons, who haven't looked good, and then were absolutely destroyed by Dallas last week.


DeMarco Murray came to life to bash the Rams for 175 yards rushing, averaging nearly seven yards per carry. The 49ers can bash the Rams' defense, too, behind one of the best offensive lines in football with the running of Frank Gore and Colin Kapernick operating option plays. Kaepernick is going to be tougher to handle playing on turf.


The Rams have covered all four of the matchups between the two teams under Jeff Fisher. There's no way the 49ers will underestimate St. Louis in this matchup.


St. Louis has become one dimensional with no running game. That puts the entire onus on Sam Bradford, who is far from an elite quarterback. I would easily take Kaepernick over Bradford. The Rams have improved their speed,but their offense is a work in progress way too ovrereliant on passing.

Forget about all that nonsense about taking more than two touchdowns with a division rival. That's old school NFL.


New school NFL is all about passing. The Broncos are the best at it and the Raiders are one of the worst.


Peyton Manning has been unstoppable this season thanks to an upgraded receiving corps. He's thrown nine touchdown passes in two games. Manning's touchdown-to-interception ratio is up to 46-to-13 in 18 regular-season games with Denver.


The Raiders' defense is no match for Manning especially after losing safety Tyvon Branch to an ankle injury last week.


Oakland played hard in getting a cover against Indianapolis in Week 1 and then took care of the worst team in the NFL by far, Jacksonville, last Sunday at home. But now the Raiders are stepping light years up. Denver very well could be the best team in the NFL right now,


Oakland quarterback Terrelle Pryor can't throw downfield. He's just dangerous with his feet. Denver won't be fooled by him. The Broncos aren't going to let Pryor run. The Raiders are not build for shootouts, or for coming from behind. So they're going to be in big trouble once they start surrendering touchdowns to Denver's high-powered offensive machine.


Don't look for a Denver letdown either following its impressive road win against the Giants last week. The Broncos hate the Raiders and this is on the Monday night stage.

The Saints have won AND covered their past 10 home games when Sean Payton has been coaching. Look for that streak to continue in this matchup.


This is a bad situational spot for Arizona traveling cross-country following a highly-satisfying home win against Detroit. An early start time is not good either for the Cardinals.


New Orleans has covered 17 of its last 22 in the Superdome. The Cardinals have been strong against the run, but rank 21st versus the pass and only have one sack, tied for last in the NFL. The Saints only pay lip service to running the ball. They are a throwing team all the way and will be at the goal line, too, after watching disappointing Mark Ingram get stuffed again trying to score on a short run.


New defensive coordinator Rob Ryan has improved the Saints' defense. New Orleans held Atlanta to just 17 points opening week and last Sunday gave up just 14 points and 273 yards on the road to the Buccaneers.


The Cardinals are passing a lot more under new coach Bruce Arians and quarterback Carson Palmer. But those two aren't on the same page yet. Arizona's passing attack is a work in progress. Not helping matters is star wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald has a nagging hamstring injury that reduces his effectiveness.


The Saints are far more aggressive on defense under Ryan. They will be blitzing Palmer in the loud Superdome. Palmer is a statue in the pocket. He could be in for a rough afternoon.

The oddsmakers have opened a wrong favorite. We've been down this path before with these two teams.


They met in Week 3 last year at Carolina and the Panthers were favored. The Giants ended up blasting them, 36-7, scoring on eight of their last 10 possessions.


The Panthers are operating the wrong offense for Cam Newton and their secondary is highly vulnerable to the Giants' excellent passing attack. Already weakened by the retirement of cornerback Chris Gamble, the Panthers lost their leader in the secondary this past Sunday with free safety Charles Godfrey going down with an Achilles' injury.


The Giants should have beaten Dallas on the road opening week but were done in by a minus 5 turnover ratio. There was no shame in losing to Denver this past Sunday. The Broncos are in the argument for best team in the NFL.


The Panthers, on the other hand, let the Bills and a rookie quarterback beat them. They couldn't protect Newton surrendering 4 1/2 sacks to Mario Williams alone.


Carolina is just 2-5 ATS when chalk. The Panthers are poorly coached. They are 2-14 SU in games decided by seven points or less under Ron Rivera.


The Giants, on the other hand under future Hall of Fame coach Tom Coughlin, are 8-3-1 ATS as underdogs.

This is a circle the wagons game for the 0-2 Redskins. I see Robert Griffin III playing his best game of the year now that he's had two games to get the rust off him. He's facing a weak secondary.


Washington doesn't need extra motivation, but the tragic shooting in D.C. this week could add additional emotion.


The Lions have covered less than 35 percent of their road games during the past seven years. This is an off-surface for them and their second consecutive road game. Detroit is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games on grass. Lions kicker David Akers can no longer kick well on grass.


The Lions are undisciplined and poorly coached. They are a bunch of front runners who can't handle adversity, which crops up often on the road. Already the Lions have committed 19 penalties totaling nearly 200 yards.


Detroit is heavily reliant on Reggie Bush, both as its main runner and a dangerous receiving threat out of the backfield. Bush, though, probably isn't going to play after suffering a knee injury last week. Bush was hurting after Week 1, too.

Neither team has a good secondary. The Giants only have five sacks in their last seven games so they've been unable to mask their trouble in the secondary, which is made worse this week with cornerback Corey Webster unlikely to play. Lack of depth in their defensive backfield is a real problem for the Giants.


Look for the Panthers to pass more than they have to take advantage and also knowing their run-oriented style isn't best suited to Cam Newton's talents. The Panthers should be effective, too, though when they run. The Giants have allowed their first two opponents, Denver and Dallas, to combine to rush for 200 yards and average 4.2 yards per rush.


The Giants are going to score their share of points, too. The Panthers' secondary, already weak to begin the year, has a cluster injury problem with free safety Charles Godfrey out for the year with a torn Achilles'. They also have injuries to their strong safety, left cornerback and to their nick and dime backs.


The Giants have one of the best receiving trios in football with Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks and Reuben Randle. Eli Manning does have seven interceptions, but he also is second in passing yards, fifth in touchdown throws and second in 20-plus yard completions.

Wyoming's Brett Smith is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the nation. He can generate a lot of points against a battered Air Force defense that has allowed an average of 47 points in its last two games and suffered more injuries last week in a 42-20 loss to Boise State.



Air Force couldn't stop Utah State at home two weeks ago giving up 52 points. Smith already has thrown for nine touchdowns. Air Force has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 76.6 percent of their throws.



Wyoming has covered 19 of its last 26 games, including going 6-0 ATS the past six times versus opponents with a losing record.



The Cowboys know they need to pile up wins early as the backend of their schedule is very difficult. The Cowboys also have revenge for a one-point home loss to Air Force last season. Smith didn't play in that game.



Falcons sophomore quarterback Jaleel Awini is learning on the job. He's no match against Smith right now.

Big rivalry game with lots of emotion. That often can favor defense. There were just 46 points scored in last year's game won by Utah, 25-21.



I see lots of running in this game, which eats clock. BYU ranks 111th in passing. Cougars Taysom Hill is a running quarterback. He's a good runner, but is just 22-for-66 throwing for 304 yards with more interceptions than touchdown throws.



The Utes should be better prepared for Hill having already faced Chuckie Keeton, one of the better dual threat quarterbacks in the country. The Cougars scored 40 against Texas, but previous to that had put up just 16 points against Virginia.



BYU ranks 36th in defense. The Cougars are holding foes to 3.0 yards per rush with a veteran defensive front and four good linebackers. Utah quarterback Travis Wilson can make big plays with his arm, but he also is still learning to read defenses better. He was picked off three times in the second half during last week's game against Oregon State.

Arizona State was fortunate to beat Wisconsin. Thanks to the officials, the Sun Devils held on at the end to nip the Badgers at home.


Now, though, Arizona State goes on the road to play Stanford. The Cardinal plays physical like the Badgers with a tough defense and strong ground attack, but are a better team. Stanford is off an easy early Saturday afternoon win against Army, while the Sun Devils had to exert a lot of energy in the desert to get past the Badgers in a late Saturday night game.


I don't see the Sun Devils being able to step up their game, which they need to do. Arizona State is 16-33-3 ATS against foes who own a winning home record.



The Cardinal have won 10 consecutive games dating to last season, the second-longest active streak behind Ohio State

I'm surprised this line isn't higher. Baylor's offense, spearheaded by quarterback Bryce Petty, is playing at high level hammering Wofford, 69-3d, and burying Buffalo, 70-13. Petty is operating Art Briles' high-powered offense having learned from Robert Griffin III and Nick Florence. He ranks No. 2 in the country in passing efficiency completing 32 of 40 passes for 650 yards and four touchdowns.


The Bears' defense also is greatly improved ranking 33rd in the nation.


Louisiana Monroe is a totally outclassed Sun Belt Conference team that relies on a short passing attack. Baylor was idle last week. The time off allowed some of the injured Bears to get healthy. The Bears have been riding a lot of momentum since upsetting UCLA in the Holiday Bowl last year winning, 49-26.


A source in Northern Louisiana told me the Warhawks should be getting at least 40 points in this game that four touchdowns isn't nearly enough.

As expected, the Chiefs are much improved under Andy Reid. But this a terrible situational spot for them traveling on a very short week following a big home win against Dallas.



What makes it worse is tangling against the Eagles and their new look fast-break offense.



The Eagles' offense hasn't been slowed this season. The Eagles rank second in yardage at 477 per game and third in points at 31.5 per contest. Michael Vick, LeSean McCoy and DeSean Jackson are all healthy again and having major seasons.



A lot is going to be made of Andy Reid returning to Philadelphia. That's another distraction for Reid and the Chiefs to deal with. The Eagles are going to be steaming mad after losing at home at the end to San Diego.



Alex Smith isn't nearly a good enough passer to trade points with such a high-powered opponent. The Eagles have a weak secondary, but Smith is a dink and dunker who is unable to take full advantage.



The Chiefs rely heavily on Jamaal Charles and he isn't 100 percent.

Sometimes it can be a mistake to overreact to what happens on opening week.


But not in the case of the Steelers. Pittsburgh is in deep trouble.


The Steelers were the AFC's lowest scoring team during preseason when they went 0-4. Their troubles continued at home against Tennessee as their offense produced just seven points and 195 yards. This was against Tennessee, which gave up the most points per game last year of any team.


Pittsburgh has its youngest offensive line in 56 years. The Steelers' one key offensive lineman, Pro Bowl center Maurkice Pouncey, was lost for the season against the Titans. Pittsburgh's offensive line imploded without Pouncey. Cincinnati has one of the 10 best defenses and had a franchise-best 51 sacks last year.


Ben Roethlisberger has no ground game to turn to with a running back committee of rejects and his passing attack is minus deep threat Mike Wallace and reliable tight end Heath Miller.


The Steelers' defense still is good, but it's not dominant anymore. The linebacking corps took a hit with a season-ending injury to Larry Foote. Pittsburgh's defense is getting old and missing several former mainstays, including linebacker James Harrison, who is now with Cincinnati. The emotional Harrison will be super psyched going against his former team.


The Bengals have won seven of their last nine regular season games. Their only losses during this span were by one point to Dallas last year and by three points to Chicago on the road last week in a game they should have won.


Cincinnati's offense is improved with Andy Dalton more experienced and rookie running back Giovani Bernard and tight end Tyler Eifert joining A.J. Green, the best wideout in the AFC.


The Steelers have dominated Cincinnati through the years. Now the Bengals have a chance for payback on national TV catching the Steelers when they are physically down and their confidence is at low ebb.

Two big throwing offenses meet here with plenty of big-play personnel in the respective lineups. So, no, the oddsmaker has not made this total high enough.


The Lions are better offensively with Reggie Bush. He gives them an outside running threat AND a dangerous checkdown receiver out of the backfield.


The Cardinals' offense is much improved this season. Bruce Arians is an offensive guru and Carson Palmer has a big arm and a downfield mentality. His days of being an upper tier quarterback have been over for several years, but he's Arizona's best quarterback since Kurt Warner.


The Cardinals actually have two good receivers and one great one in Larry Fitzgerald. They are all made dangerous because of Carson and Arians' emphasis on passing. They will attack the Lions' biggest weakness, which is their secondary.


The oddsmaker hasn't quite fully adjusted to all the new rules skewed for offense. This used to be a big total to go over. Not anymore. Nowadays what should be over/unders of 48 and 49 should be put at 52 and 53 to accommodate what today's NFL has become especially when good quarterbacks are involved.

Both defenses were overworked last week. The Redskins are traveling on a short week. Their defense had to face the Eagles, the most up-tempo team in the NFL, and was on the field for nearly 33 minutes. Green Bay's defense was on the field for close to 39 minutes against San Francisco.


The Redskins are extremely vulnerable at the cornerback spots with declining veterans DeAngelo Hall and Josh Wilson. The Redskins ranked 30th in pass defense last season. They are vulnerable to the Packers' devastating passing attack.


Green Bay is averaging 34.4 points in their last five games and that's going against the 49ers defense twice and Vikings defense twice. The over has cashed 17 of the past 24 times (71%) in Green Bay's home games.


Robert Griffin III was rusty in the first half in his first action since off-season knee surgery. He started to get going in the second half and should be sharper in his second game of the game.


The Packers still can't find a pass rusher to complement Clay Matthews and could be without two key members of their secondary again, Morgan Burnett and Casey Hayward.


There is a chance of rain, but only a slight wind.

Andy Reid knows more about the Cowboys than the Cowboys know about Reid's Chiefs.


Kansas City has four Pro Bowl players on defense and an improved offense. The Chiefs won't commit the turnovers they did last year with Alex Smith behind center.


The Cowboys were celebrating like crazy after beating the Giants at home Sunday night. Dallas won by five points despite having a plus 5 turnover edge. That's not impressive.


The Cowboys have problems on both their offensive and defensive lines. Tony Romo and Dez Bryant aren't 100 percent either.


The Chiefs have one of the best home field edges in football. Dallas is playing outdoors on grass, which isn't a natural setting for them. The Cowboys also are 0-4-1 ATS the last five years when playing in Week 2.

Both teams have solid quarterbacks, but Utah has the better overall talent and is home. The Utes have covered in six of their last seven home contests.



Oregon State has covered only 29 percent of its last 28 September games. The Beavers beat Hawaii last week, but in Week 1 they were stunned by Eastern Washington. That raised a red flag that still remains in my mind.



Utah ranks 10th in the nation in scoring averaging 50 points. Quarterback Travis Wilson is dangerous both passing and running for the Utes while Oregon State quarterback Sean Mannion is a pocket passer.



The Utes have a very active defensive line. They can apply plenty of heat against Mannion. Utah is surrendering less than 17 points a game.

Sure revenge is huge. Texas A&M dealt Alabama its only loss last year. But revenge is factored into the line. I like the Crimson Tide for other less obvious reasons besides them being the superior team.


Johnny Manziel snuck up on people last season. This is the second time the Crimson Tide are facing him. They know what to expect. They won't be ambushed like last year.


The timing also is much better for Alabama. If you recall, the Tide had to play the Aggies the week after a tough 21-17 road win against LSU in a rematch of the 2011 national title game. This time Alabama comes into the matchup against Texas A&M following a bye.


The Crimson Tide is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 road contests. The Crimson Tide also has covered 70 percent of its last 20 September matchups.


Nick Saban has a tremendous record in revenge games winning 15 of 17 times (88 percent) at Alabama and LSU in same season or next season revenge spots.

Now that the whole world is down on USC and Lane Kiffin this is the time to back the Trojans.



It's easy to focus on the Trojans' struggles throwing the ball, but their defense has been top rate. The Trojans are in a desperate spot. They are at home and catch Boston College traveling cross-country while stepping up in class after playing Villanova and Wake Forest.



USC entered this week No. 1 in rushing defense and had the most sacks with 11. The Trojans also were 11th in total defense and 19th in scoring defense holding foes to less than 12 points per game.



The Trojans can run the ball, play great defense and have perhaps the top wide receiver in the country, Marqise Lee. Kiffin has had enough of Max Wittek, who was splitting quarterback duties with Cody Kessler. That should mean more downfield throws to the magnificent Lee.



Boston College is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 September games. The Eagles also have failed to cover during their past six road contests.

It's a big number, but I see Pitt covering in this matchup. The Panthers haven't played since being embarrassed 41-13 on prime time by Florida State in their ACC debut on Labor Day. The Panthers have covered 17 of the past 22 times (77%) following a loss.



New Mexico is coming off a highly-satisfying 42-35 overtime victory at Texas-El Paso. That halted a seven-game Lobos' losing streak. Now the Lobos have to make the long East Coast trek and have the further disadvantage of an early start time.



Pittsburgh's weakness on defense was pass defense. The Lobos, however, are an option team. They only average 86 yards throwing. The Panthers have had ample time to work on defending this type of offense.



The Lobos also struggle versus the pass. The Panthers can take advantage of this with quarterback Tom Savage and Devin Street, one of the best wide receivers in the nation.



New Mexico has failed to cover 12 of its last 17 September games and is 5-13 ATS in non-conference action.

There are reasons why Indiana hasn't played in a bowl game since 2007. The Hooisers just aren't very good.


Bowling Green is a very solid team - on both sides of the ball. The Falcons have won nine of their last 10, including beating Kent State on the road by 19 and Tulsa at home by 27 this season. The Falcons return 18 starters and very well could be the class of the MAC.


Indiana doesn't deserve to be favored with its lack of defense. The Hooisers rank 110th in scoring defense and 119th in run defense. They surrendered 35 points to Indiana State, a FCS team, and 41 points to Navy. Bowling Green is far superior to those teams. Indiana has now lost to Navy two consecutive years. The Midshipmen controlled the game from the start leading all the way while piling up 444 yards on the ground in beating the Hoosiers, 41-35.


Bowling Green has held eight of its last 11 foes to 14 points or less. The Falcons have won and covered in their last four away matchups.


The Falcons will be highly motivated to play in this non-conference game taking on a Big Ten team. The Hooisers, on the other hand, have a bigger matchup the following week when they host Missouri of the SEC.

It's usually a mistake to go under in a Patriots game. But not this time.



This is a Thursday game so both teams preparation has been scaled down. Offenses often come out flat on Thursday games. These two teams know each other well, too, being in the same division.


The Jets have a pop-gun offense. They lack any talent at the skill positions. Geno Smith will be making his first road start. He's going against one of the greatest defensive minds of all-time in Bill Belichick.


The Patriots finished 10th last season in fewest points allowed per game. They won't have any problem handling the Jets' offense.


The key in winning this under is holding New England down. The Jets have a decent defense. The Patriots are running the ball more. They also are missing key skill position players Danny Amendola, their best wide receiver, and running back Shane Vereen, who is their best receiver out of the backfield.


Tom Brady is not in sync yet with his stable of new receivers. The time to play the Patriots under is early in the season before Brady gets into a rhythm with his new teammates.

Just like last year, the oddsmaker opened the Texans too short in Week 1. The Texans were steamed last year against Miami and they easily covered that opener, 30-10. It was the third straight time the Texans have won and covered their opener with their average victory margin being by 19 points.



I see the same thing happening here. The best time to back the Texans is now because this line is only going to go higher.



I rank the Texans with the Patriots and Broncos as the class of the AFC. The Chargers are rebuilding at best and are a bottom three team at worst.



The Texans are solid at every position and should dominate the trenches. The Chargers are breaking in new corners, are thin on the defensive line, have beat-up wide receivers and a bad offensive line making them prey to J.J. Watt. In fact, the Chargers have an extreme talent deficiency all across their team.



Perhaps the linesmaker isn't fully aware yet - but San Diego is going to be very bad. This is the chance to get a far superior team at a very cheap price.



Arian Foster should play. But even if he doesn't, I'm fine with Ben Tate getting the majority of carries. He's one of the best backup running backs in the league.

Lots of big names at the skill positions, but a closer study of the two teams reveals what should be a dead nuts under game.



The Packers have upgraded the depth in their defensive line and secondary. So their defense should be improved. Green Bay is highly motivated to control Colin Kaepernick after he embarrassed the Packers in the playoffs last season. The Packers have had an entire season now to prepare for Kaepernick and his read-option attack. Kaepernick is without his leading receiver, injured Michael Crabtree.



The 49ers' defense is elite. Justin Smith is healthy, which he wasn't down the stretch last season. His presence makes Aldon Smith a terror. Smith led the NFC with 19 1/2 sacks. The 49ers' defense should dominate the trenches. Green Bay has reshuffled its offensive line. The Packers are without their best tackle, too, with Bryan Bulaga out for the year.



The Packers are starting a rookie at left tackle and a second-year player at right tackle. Expectations are low for both players. The Packers are highly vulnerable protecting Aaron Rodgers, who was sacked a league-high 51 times last year.



The timing between Rodgers and his two top wide receivers, Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, figures to be off, too, since both were hurt during preseason. Cobb still may not be 100 percent. He's dealing with a bicep injury. DeJuan Harris, Green Bay's change of pace back who was going to split carries with Eddie Lacey, is out for the year.



The Packers could run more than usual to keep the 49ers honest and to slow down their pass rush. Lacey is a move-the-chains type of runner not a sprinter. This is going to kill clock. Playing on grass also slows down the Packers and Kaepernick.

The Raiders are going to struggle to put up touchdowns with one of the worst offensive lines and starting quarterback in the NFL. The Raiders had one very good offensive lineman - left tackle Jared Veldheer - and he's out possibly for the season. Replacing Veldheer is rookie Menelik Watson, who played one year of college football.



Making matters even worse for Oakland is its quarterback position. The starter, at least for now, is Terrelle Pryor. He can run, but he can't hide. He also can't throw with any accuracy. He's not helped either by a well below average wide receiving group.



The Raiders' key to upsetting the Colts is maintaining ball control by running Darren McFadden. The Raiders actually are 10-2 when McFadden rushes for 100 or more yards, including winning the past six times that has happened. To try to make this happen, the Raiders have changed their offense going to a power scheme. They figure to run the ball a lot against a smallish, but quick Colts' defensive front seven. That's going to eat clock. Pryor can only hurt defenses with his feet not with his arm.



The Colts have tweaked their offense. They lost their interim coach and offensive guru, Bruce Arians. New offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton favors a shorter passing attack. The Colts' offensive line is average at best and Oakland's strength is its secondary, which features three solid veterans in Charles Woodson, Mike Jenkins and Tracy Porter.



The Colts should win this game. So this would be a good game for them to run more getting newcomer Ahmad Bradshaw carries since he didn't play in preseason while not showing their hand on their new style of offense saving things for next week when they have a more challenging opponent in Miami.

New England has owned Buffalo beating the Bills 23 of the past 26 times. This game shouldn't pose any problems either for New England.


Tom Brady lost his main receivers from last year and won't have Rob Gronkowski. But he does have Danny Amendola and a much improved ground attack. The Patriots have averaged 40.1 points in their last six games versus Buffalo.


The Bills have a new defensive system, have a cluster injury problem in their secondary, inexperienced wide receivers and a rookie quarterback.


Bill Belichick can easily game plan to stop rookie E.J. Manuel, who didn't play in the last two preseason games because of swelling in his knee, or undrafted free agent Jeff Tuel, who has little arm strength.


There is no way for the Bills to keep up with Brady, who shouldn't have any difficulty picking apart the Bills' battered secondary.

I'm always attracted to the superior team getting points. That's the case in this matchup.



Cincinnati holds key edges in the trenches against the Bears and has greatly upgraded at the skill positions giving Andy Dalton additional weapons to work with besides the great A.J. Green. The Bengals very well could have the best tight end tandem in the NFL with Jermaine Gresham and Tyler Eifert.



The Bengals covered six of their eight road games last year. They have won seven of their past eight regular season games and were 5-1 in their last six games versus NFC foes. Their only loss in these six games was to Dallas by one point.



The Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last six games at Solider Field. They have failed to cover the last four times they've been favorites of 3 1/2 points or less.



The Bears are old on defense - while the Bengals defense is in its prime. Chicago lost a lot of leadership - especially on defense - with Lovie Smith getting fired and future Hall of Famer Brian Urlacher retiring.



Marc Trestman is unproven as a head coach. He's an offensive coach who inherits Jay Cutler, a hot-and-cold gunslinger who has yet to prove he can win. Cutler is a pocket passer and the Bears haven't been able to protect him. He's been sacked 61 times in the last 25 games.



The Bengals set a franchise mark with 51 sacks last year. They have a number of excellent pass rushers, including Geno Atkins, Michael Johnson and Carlos Dunlap. They can take advantage of a new Chicago offense that very much is a work in progress.

Carolina should have beaten the Seahawks at home last year, but were stopped on the 1-yard during a goal line stand when Cam Newton misfired with a receiver open in the end zone.


The Panthers have revenge and like Seattle are better now than when they faced the Seahawks in Week 5 last year. Carolina finished last season winning six of its last nine as Newton played much better. The Panthers knocked off the Falcons, Redskins and Saints in New Orleans during this span.


The Seahawks have numerous defensive injuries and face a strong look-ahead game. They host the 49ers next Sunday night in one of their biggest games of the season. The Seahawks are not helped either by the early start time since they playing three hours ahead of their normal time.


Seattle has a new defensive coordinator after Gus Bradley took over as head coach of Jacksonville. Star pass rusher Chris Clemons may not play due to a knee injury. Linebacker Bruce Irving is suspended and tackles Brandon Mebane and Tony McDaniel are dealing with injuries. Free agent acquisition defensive end Cliff Avril has a hamstring injury.


This is a classic ambush spot. The Panthers are underrated and motivated. Seattle has become a public team and is overrated.

I see Washington State scoring a lot of points now that the Cougars are in the second year of running Mike Leach's high octane offense.



The Cougars are pass happy under Leach. Connor Halliday threw 65 times in the Cougars' opening 31-24 road loss to Auburn. He completed 35 of those for 344 yards and a touchdown. The Cougars also rushed for 120 yards and only gave up two sacks in generating 464 total yards. Halliday has his four starting receivers back from last year.



Southern Cal is going to put up a lot of points against the Cougars, who gave up an average of 30 points per game during their last 11 games last year. The Trojans' passing attack should be sharper with quarterbacks Cody Kessler and Max Wittek each getting snaps after both played last week in a 30-13 road win last week against Hawaii. They have one of the best wide receivers in the nation to throw to in Marquise Lee.

There's been a lot of early steam on the Longhorns and the move is right.



BYU can't stay with Texas' athletes. The Cougars don't have enough offense to trade points with Texas. Their recruiting has gone done since becoming an independent.



Texas has outstanding athletes on offense and now has its best quarterback, David Ash, in the past four years. The Cougars aren't used to seeing an offense this good.



The Longhorns win on the road, too, posting 11 consecutive non-conference away victories. They were 4-1 on the road last year, including posting victories against Texas Tech and Oklahoma State.

Both these teams were bad last year, but Boston College has shown more defensive improvement and played the harder ACC schedule. The Eagles stayed with Clemson and Northwestern last year.


Boston College's defense came on, too, during the second half of last season yielding 3.2 yards per play after giving up more than five yards per play in the first half of the year.


Morale is better now at BC with Steve Addazio replacing Frank Spaziani as head coach. The Eagles have double revenge, a better kicker and a good quarterback-receiver combo of Chase Rettig and Alex Amidon, one of the best wideouts in the ACC.



The Demon Deacons are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 road games.

Two strong offensive coaches coupled with two bad defenses and a lower than expected total make this an over play.

New Colorado coach Mike MacIntyre did wonders at San Jose State. The Spartans ranked sixth in passing last season. Now MacIntyre has installed his version of a Pistol offense at Colorado.

The Buffaloes are well coached in the offensive line and have decent skill position players, including running back Christian Powell and wide receiver Paul Richardson, who was becoming one of the better receivers in the Pac-12 two years ago but missed last year because of an ACL tear. Richardson is a big time talent that the oddsmaker didn't consider when he put out this total.

Colorado State coach Jim McElwain should be able to work with quarterback Conner Smith, who has a big arm. The Rams, though, will move the sticks through the ground. They have two very good runners - Donnell Alexander and Chris Nwoke - and a veteran offensive line returning four starters.

Neither defense has been any good. The Buffaloes have surrendered 30 or more points in each of their last 11 games.

This total is too low. Michigan is a heavy favorite, but Central Michigan can contribute its share of points.


The Chippewas have a big time running back, Zurlon Tipton, a solid offensive line and speed at the flanks. Tipton rushed for just under 1,500 yards last year while scoring 19 touchdowns.


The over has cashed 68 percent of the time during Central Michigan's last 51 road games.


Michigan doesn't have much of a pass rush and its best pass rusher, Jake Ryan, is out after suffering a torn ACL during the offseason.


The Wolverines should do plenty of damage facing an opponent that was 100th in sacks and second to last in the country in tackles for losses.


Devin Gardner is a great athlete and proved he could replace Denard Robinson. Gardner actually is better suited to coach Brady Hoke's pro-style offense than Robinson was.


The Wolverines have a strong running attack, good enough receivers and excellent offensive tackles.

After six seasons it was time for a coaching change in Raleigh. I see the Wolfpack coming out and playing extremely hard for new coach Dave Doeren.


The Wolfpack have won nine of their last 10 home games, covering eight of them.


Louisiana Tech lost its veteran quarterback and coach. The Bulldogs have a porous defense that gave up 526 yards per game and their offense is starting over.


Playing on grass, an off-surface for them, and at a tough road venue are major negatives, too, for the Bulldogs who will be undersized against North Carolina State.


The college market often is right in its Week 1 moves and the market has steamed North Carolina State. I concur.

Texas Tech hasn't been right since controversial Mike Leach left in 2009. I'm not convinced rookie head coach Kliff Kingsbury can get things turned around. The Red Raiders have failed to cover in their last six games.


SMU has a strong quarterback and coaching edge plus a solid home field advantage. The Mustangs came on strong during the second half of last season. They have covered in their last six home games.


June Jones is a tremendous quarterback coach. His quarterbacks traditionally have fared much better during their second season in his system. This is Gale Gilbert's second year in Jones' system. He passed for nearly 3,000 yards last season and 15 touchdowns. He should improve on those numbers. This is his fifth season playing college football. He has his No. 2, 3 and 4 wide receivers back from last year.


Kingsbury doesn't have that luxury at quarterback. He does not have an experienced starter. There could be a chance the Red Raiders even start a true freshman at quarterback. The Mustangs have their starting secondary back, including star senior Kenneth Acker.

Bowling Green has a very good defense. But Tulsa is going to get its points. The Golden Hurricane had the ninth-best rushing offense in the country last year while ranking in the top 30 in yards per game (458) and scoring per game (34.7).



Tulsa returns most of its offensive unit, including quarterback Cody Green, its two best running backs and three best wideouts. The Golden Hurricane, though, lost most of its defense from last year's Conference USA Championship team. They have the makings of being an outstanding over team with an excellent offense and weak defense.


Bowling Green has an excellent quarterback and all of his top receiving targets back. The Falcons scored 24 or more points in seven of their last eight regular season games last season.


The Falcons only surrendered 15 sacks in 13 games last season. Tulsa's defensive strength was its pass rush. The Golden Hurricanes are breaking in new defensive ends.

This isn't like the old days with totals. A 47 isn't that high of a total anymore because of the many rule changes implemented during the past few years favoring offense. The rules have gone too far giving offenses far more advantages than defenses.

The Ravens' defense is sprinkled with big name players. But nearly all of these defensive players are either past their prime, or not at 100 percent. Baltimore also is minus their top cornerback, Lardarius Webb.

Baltimore's defense stepped up big time on the road against the Patriots, but the Ravens also were very familiar with New England. They don't know the 49ers' offense, no opponent really does because San Francisco's attack is cutting edge thanks to multi-talented Colin Kaepernick.

The 49ers are combining old fashion power football with various college elements, including the pistol and option elements, in taking full advantage of Kaepernick's running and passing skills. This is truly unique. Kaepernick's passer rating during his nine starts would have placed him fifth if it included the entire regular season instead of the final seven games plus two playoff matchups.

San Francisco has the superior defense. But the 49ers' defense, while good, has been far from dominant during the last quarter of the season. If you discount the 49ers' game against the punchless Cardinals, who were starting fourth-string quarterback Brian Hoyer, San Francisco has allowed an average of 32.7 points during its last four games.

San Francisco has gone over the total in its last six games. The Ravens have gone over in six of their nine matchups against playoff teams with one of the unders occurring during a meaningless Week 17 game against the Bengals when their offensive starters hardly played.

Joe Flacco is riding his best hot streak ever when factoring in road contests outdueling Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in consecutive weeks. Flacco has eight touchdown passes during Baltimore's three postseason victories.

Both Flacco and Kaepernick are going to be aided playing on carpet inside the Superdome.

Yes, I understand this is more of an exhibition than a real game. And, yes, I know that a combined 96 and 100 points have been scored during the last two Pro Bowls.

But there is a handicap to this game - and it's not to the over.

The game was so bad last year that NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell is strongly considering ending it. The players don't want that. A decision will be made by April on the future of the game and much of that decision will be influenced by how this year's game is played.

Goodell has urged the participants to play harder. Peyton Manning is urging the same thing. So I believe, that unlike previous years, there will be some pride at stake and defenses will actually tackle and try to defend. They will be under a lot of scrutiny. That makes this total way out of whack.


The two best quarterbacks, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady, won't be playing.


The AFC's quarterbacks are Manning, Andrew Luck and Matt Schaub. Luck finished 26th in the quarterback ratings, one spot behind Blaine Gabbert. Schaub is more of a game-manager than downfield attacker. I rank him 17th among starting quarterbacks.


The NFC quarterbacks are Drew Brees, Eli Manning and Russell Wilson. Not only is Rodgers not playing, but neither are Matt Ryan, Robert Griffin III, Tony Romo and Cam Newton. I rank those four ahead of Wilson.


Defenses are very vanilla in the Pro Bowl. But there are a number of excellent pass rushers and each squad's offensive line isn't used to working together as a unit.


Then there's this ridiculously high total. Even if the defenses don't produce as well as I believe they will, it still takes 12 touchdowns to get over. That's far from a given even in this exhibition.

Everybody thinks offense with the Patriots. Everybody remembers 73 points being scored in last week's Ravens-Broncos game.

But this matchup is different and the total has gotten high enough where an under play is warranted. This is going to be a very physical matchup between two teams that know each other well.

It's an outdoor January game in Foxboro where the wind forecast is for 20 miles per hour. There were 43 points scored when Baltimore played New England at the same venue in last season's AFC title game.

New England's defense has improved since then. The Patriots ranked in the top 10 in run defense and their secondary has gotten better with Devin McCourty moving from cornerback to safety and cornerback Aqib Talib coming from Tampa Bay.

The Patriots' offense is less diverse and less dangerous without star tight end Rob Gronkowski. The Patriots have become more run-oriented this season. They actually led the AFC in rush attempts.

Baltimore's defense is down from past seasons. But the Ravens will play with an all-out savage attitude spurred on by Ray Lewis in what could be his final game.

The Ravens have averaged 13 more runs per game since Jim Caldwell replaced Cam Cameron as offensive coordinator in Week 15. Joe Flacco has not been a good road quarterback with the exception of last week. The Ravens are going to feature Ray Rice more than a no-huddle, which means more time running off the clock and less time stoppage.

The 49ers are stronger physically than the Falcons - and mentally, too, under Jim Harbaugh.

The Falcons had problems with Russell Wilson. They'll have worse trouble with a red-hot Colin Kaepernick, who runs better than Wilson. The Falcons could be missing their top pass rusher, John Abraham, too.

The 49ers ranked second in scoring defense and were either third or fourth in the rest of the major defensive categories. They played a much stronger schedule than Atlanta meeting playoff foes Green Bay, Minnesota, Seattle twice and New England. The Falcons just drew the Broncos and Redskins - and both of those games were early in the season before those teams were playing well.

No team played a softer schedule than the Falcons.

For all the talk about Atlanta's home field edge, the Falcons actualy scored fewer points per game at home than on the road and Matt Ryan had 10 fewer touchdowns at home and is quarterback rating wasn't nearly as good in the Georgia Dome compared to the road.

The 49ers' offense has gotten much more explosive with Kaepernick. The Falcons are weak versus the run giving up 4.8 yards per carry. A still highly effective Frank Gore can take advantage not to mention Kapernick. Under Kaepernick, Michael Crabtree has reached his enormous potential becoming one of the better wideouts in the league. Vernon Davis still remains dangerous, too.

I'll take the Falcons at home in this short price range. Atlanta has won 11 of its last 12 games at Georgia Dome. The Falcons' only home loss during this time span occurred in Week 17 to Tampa Bay when the Falcons already had home-field advantage clinched.

Matt Ryan led the NFL in completion percentage while finishing in the top five in touchdowns and yardage. Russell Wilson is a nice story, but he can't compare to Ryan especially in Ryan's home dome where he has won 33 of 38 regular season games. Ryan has thrown 11 touchdowns in his last five games with just one interception. Wilson, by contrast, has a 9-to-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio on the road.

The Seahawks have a losing road record. They have lost to the Cardinals, Rams, Lions and Dolphins away from home. The Falcons are much more dangerous in their home dome setting then the Lions, who put up 28 points and 352 passing yards on Seattle.

The Falcons are healthy while the Seahawks are without their best pass rusher, Chris Clemons. The Seahawks are traveling for the second time in two weeks while the Falcons are well rested.

I'm not sold on the Seahawks' offense either. I like Wilson, but he's not an elite quarterback like Ryan. I also like Marshawn Lynch, but the Falcons will be keying on him. The Falcons faced Cam Newton twice and Robert Griffin III - when he was healthy - so they have experience with option-type quarterbacks such as Wilson.

Much is being made of the Falcons being 0-3 in the playoffs during the Mike Smith-Matt Ryan era. Don't put any stock in it. Two of those defeats came when the Falcons were on the road.

Atlanta is the better team and in the better situation.

The combination of the Ravens and road hasn't been a good one. But Baltimore is playoff road-tested under John Harbaugh with a winning spread mark in eight away games.

The Ravens' defense isn't nearly what it was in the past, but it still has good players and has gotten healthier with the return of Ray Lewis, Dannell Ellerbee and Bernard Pollard. That's 244 tackles. All three missed the Dec. 16 game when the Broncos beat the Ravens, 34-17.

A lot is being made of Denver crushing Baltimore as the game was more lopsided than the final score. However, the Ravens were right in there but couldn't overcome a possible 14-point turnaround when Joe Flacco was intercepted at the goal line and the interception was returned 98 yards for a touchdown.

Since that game, Flacco has not committed a turnover. The Broncos have a solid offense and defense. But I'm not convinced they are a dominant team that can beat a prideful, playoff-tested opponent by double-digits. Denver picked up six of its victories playing division patsies Oakland, Kansas City and San Diego while also beating Cleveland.

Beating those lower tier opponents can built up misleading statistics. I see the Ravens, with their experienced proven leadership, stepping up and keeping this matchup close.

Alabama is good no doubt about that. But the Crimson Tide are not great like they were last year having lost so many star players to the NFL. Notre Dame has a great defense. The total is just 40. So taking these many points is huge.

Some of this line, which I consider inflated, stems from the SEC having won six straight NCAA titles. The SEC was down a bit this year, though, and this is the largest spread ever for a title game in the BCS era.

Value certainly matters, but can the Irish hang with Alabama? I don't see why not. Notre Dame has one of the best run defenses in the nation and its secondary performed far better than expected giving up just eight touchdown passes, none longer than 25 yards. Alabama ranks 79th in passing. No team scored more than 20 points on Notre Dame during regulation.

Alabama ranked in the top two in all of the major defensive categories. The Crimson Tide, though, couldn't handle Heisman winner Johnny Manziel in a 29-24 home loss. Notre Dame's promising quarterback Everett Golson presents a similar run-pass threat.

Bottom line is I'll take an undervalued 'dog that is well coached with a great defense and has a talented quarterback.

There are three main misperceptions about this matchup. The oddsmaker has bought into them causing this total to be higher than it should. They are the major basis for my favoring the under.

Misperception No. 1: The Redskins have a terrible pass defense since they rank 30th. Yes, only New Orleans and Tampa Bay surrendered more passing yards than Washington. But the Redskins' secondary has gotten much better and will be reinforced by the return of veteran cornerback Cedric Griffin from suspension. The Redskins held six of their last nine foes to fewer than 235 yards passing. This includes holding Dallas and a hot Tony Romo to just 218 passing yards last week in the battle for the NFC East title.

Misperception No. 2: Robert Griffin III is the most dangerous dual threat - passing and running - player in the NFL. This was true before Griffin suffered a knee injury. Now he's forced to wear a bulky knee brace and his mobility is greatly restricted. Before the injury, Griffin averaged eight carries a game. Since the injury, he's averaged half his regular number of carries. The Seahawks are experienced in defending mobile quarterbacks who mix in option runs and pitchouts. The Seahawks defeated and defended well against two top option-caliber quarterbacks in Cam Newton and Colin Kaepernick. They held Newton to a combined 183 yards and Kaepernick to 275 in a 29-point victory two weeks ago over the 49ers.

Seattle has a top-10 run defense and arguably the hardest-hitting secondary in the league. Seattle's secondary is going to be even better now with the return of suspended cornerback Brandon Browner. Cornerback Marcus Trufant and linebacker Leroy Hill practiced this week and both are expected to play, too. Browner and Richard Sherman, who emerged as a shutdown cornerback, can take away Griffin's major receiving threat, Pierre Garcon.

Misperception No. 3: Russell Wilson is a stud quarterback. Wilson is - but only when he's played at home where his touchdown-to-interception ratio is 17-to-2. On the road, Wilson has been picked off eight times and thrown just nine touchdown passes. The Seahawks' offensive line was exposed last week by the Rams, who sacked Wilson six times. That came in Seattle, too.

The Seahawks are not some high-scoring machine on the road. Some have that perception, however, because Seattle put up 50 points on Buffalo in its last road matchup. That game, though, was played in Toronto, a neutral site. This one is a true road test for the Seahawks and is on grass, which slows down both Wilson and Griffin. Discount that game against the Bills and the Seahawks averaged 17 points on the road.

Baltimore hasn't looked good, but my feeling is the Ravens will show up strong at home where they have won 15 of their last 17 and Joe Flacco has a history of playing well. Ray Rice should have a big game, too, going against the Colts' 29-ranked run defense.

The Colts are a nice story, but the bottom line is they aren't very good. They compiled their record by beating a lot of bad teams in close games.

The Colts have been outscored by 30 points on the season. They've struggled big-time on the road when they've faced superior opposition getting blown out by the Bears, Patriots and Texans.

Aside from their 29th-ranked run defense, the Colts rank 26th in total defense. They don't run the ball well and Andrew Luck finished 26th in the passer ratings behind Blaine Gabbert.

This is the game where the Colts get exposed.

For one of the rare times this season, Aaron Rodgers is going to have all his weapons as Randall Cobb is expected to play. The Vikings don't have nearly the defensive backfield depth to stay with Cobb, Greg Jennings, James Jones, Jordy Nelson and Jermichael Finley, who has played well down the stretch. Green Bay's improved rushing attack and Rodgers' outstanding mobility can keep the Vikings' pass rushers in check. The Vikings' secondary could really be down if Antoine Winfield, Minnesota's best cornerback, is rendered near helpless with a hand injury.

The Vikings have stepped up with their two best games of the season during the last two weeks upsetting the Texans on the road and Packers at home. I don't see Minnesota being able to play its "A" game a third consecutive week, especially after just beating the Packers. Christian Ponder isn't as bad as he looked earlier in the season, but he's not as good either as he played last week. He's a dink-and-dunker nearly totally dependent on Adrian Peterson.

Peterson isn't going to be that much help, though, if the Vikings fall behind, which I expect to happen.

Green Bay has a history of coming back strong after a loss covering eight of the last nine times in that situation.

The Lambeau Field playoff mystique can't be discounted either. Green Bay is 21-8-1 ATS in its last 30 home matchups. The Packers are used to pressure January games. This is the first time the Vikings have made the postseason under Leslie Frazier.

Peterson and Rodgers are both great players. I wouldn't have a problem if either one was named MVP. But Rodgers has far more weapons and is home. The Packers' defense is better than it showed at Minnesota last week, especially Tramon Williams. Green Bay will be helped, too, by return of Charles Woodson.

Collin Klein is good, but he's trumped by the many weapons Oregon has. The Ducks have way too much offense for the Wildcats.

Oregon is averaging 50.8 points a game. The scary thing is this total could be a lot higher if Ducks coach Chip Kelly ran up scores. Kelly is the NFL's hottest head coaching prospect. This could be his last game with Oregon so the Ducks won't be letting up. Only once did the Ducks fail to score at least 40 points in a game and that was against Stanford, which just held Wisconsin to 14 points in the Rose Bowl.

Kansas State is going to need to keep up. I don't see that happening. The Wildcats were held under 30 points four times, including three times in their last seven games.

Klein is a better runner than passer. He had only three touchdown passes during his final four games. He was held to under 200 yards passing six times on the season. This limits the Wildcats from coming back if they fall several touchdowns behind.The Ducks have a history of putting up scores early scoring 61 percent of their points during the first half before Kelly eases up on the gas pedal.

Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota is both a good runner and passer with a 30-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. In the quarterback-rich Pac-12, Mariota was the first-team all conference quarterback. He's backed by a number of talented skill position players, including Kenion Barner, one of the best running backs in the country.

Only once in his last six games did Mariota throw an interception. The Ducks, on the other hand, forced an FBS-high 39 turnovers.

Oregon is used to playing in pressure-packed bowl games. Kansas State has played in only four bowl games since 2002, losing all four of them, including 29-16 last season to Arkansas in the Cotton Bowl. Klein gained just 42 yards on 24 attempts in that loss.

This is not a great Wisconsin team. The Badgers are only in the Rose Bowl because Ohio State and Penn State were both ineligible.

On top of this, the Badgers were blindsided when their coach, Bret Bielema, unexpectedly bolted them for Arkansas. It's been a major distraction and returns Barry Alvarez to the sidelines for just this one game. Alvarez retired from coaching years ago. He's been the Badgers' athletic director for nearly 10 years.

Both teams have outstanding lead runners. But the Badgers have a terrible passing attack. They were hoping that Maryland transfer Danny O'Brien could provide the same success that Russell Wilson had last season after transferring from North Carolina State. But O'Brien was so bad that he lost his starting job after three games. That left Wisconsin with freshman Joel Stave, who suffered a broken collarbone on Oct. 27, and senior Curt Phillips. Stanford has the more mobile and better passing quarterback in Kevin Hogan.

The Badgers' lack of a passing attack was reflected when they stepped up in class scoring just seven points versus Oregon State,16 against Utah State, 10 in regulation versus Michigan State and 14 in regulation versus Ohio State. Stanford defeated fellow Pac-12 rival Oregon State, 27-23. Wisconsin lost to the Beavers, 10-7.

Stanford held all but one opponent to 23 points or less. The Cardinal ranks No. 3 in the nation in rush defense holding foes to 88 yards per game on the ground. The Badgers have excellent running back depth headed by Montee Ball, but their passing game is going to hold them back.

Stanford prefers a power ground attack, too. The Cardinal featured back is Stepfan Taylor, who along with Ball rates as one of the best running backs in the country. The Cardinal also has the best tight end tandem in the country with Zach Ertz and Levine Toilolo.

Wisconsin has failed to cover in its last five non-league matchups, while Stanford is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 non-league contests.

Sure, Vanderbilt has home field advantage with this matchup being played in Nashville just a few miles from its campus.

But there are other strong reasons to like the Commodores, too.

Vanderbilt has three excellent skill position players in senior quarterback Jordan Rodgers, wide receiver Jordan Matthews, who had 87 receptions for 1,262 yards, and running back and 1,000-yard runner Zac Stacy. Rodgers will be operating against a North Carolina State secondary that ranked 94th versus the pass.

The Commodores play in a much stronger conference, the SEC, and have a strong defensive edge. Vanderbilt held eight opponents to 325 yards or less. The Commodores have won six in a row with an average victory margin of 24 points during their streak.

North Carolina State has been a disappointment going 7-5, including just 4-4 in the ACC. The Wolfpack nipped Florida State, 17-16. That was the only foe they beat who finished with a winning record.

The Wolfpack have faced a huge distraction since the regular season ended with the controversial firing of Tom O'Brien after six seasons of being the team's head coach. Dave Doeren of Northern Illinois was hired to replace O'Brien, but the team is being handled on an interim basis for this game by Dana Bible. That kind of arrangement usually isn't a plus.

The Wolfpack's big plus is senior quarterback Mike Glennon. He led the ACC with 3,648 yards passing and was No. 2 in the league in touchdown throws with 30. Glennon could be the first quarterback taken in the NFL draft, but he's not viewed as a franchise type of quarterback. Vanderbilt has a strong secondary ranking in the top 10 in pass defense yielding 175.8 passing yards and only six touchdowns through the air.

Sparked by fantastic Robert Griffin III, Washington just has to win this game to capture the NFC East Division despite a 3-6 start.

The Redskins are playing well, but so are Dallas and Tony Romo. The Cowboys have won five of their last seven with one of those defeats occurring in overtime to New Orleans. Romo has thrown for 1,328 yards with a 10-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last four games. Romo has a 104.4 quarterback mark since the start of November, which is the second-best in the league during that time frame.

Romo has been aided by the return to health of DeMarco Murray, who provides the Cowboys with a respectable ground game, and the emergence of Dez Bryant as a consistent elite wide receiver. Bryant has turned his vast potential into great production scoring 10 touchdowns and picking up 808 receiving yards during the past seven games.

Griffin returned last week against the Eagles after missing the Redskins' win against the Browns with a sprained knee. Griffin was sharp again passing going 16-for-24 for 198 yards and touchdowns, but his mobility was severely restricted wearing a knee brace. He carried just twice against the Eagles for only four yards. Griffin remains good, but he's not a dominant two-way threat like he was before the injury.

The Redskins beat Dallas on Thanksgiving, but prior to that had lost three of the last four meetings. Washington hasn't been in this big of a pressure game this late in the season since 1999. They are not used to these situations. Expectations are even higher with the Redskins playing at home.

This is the Sunday night game. So if the Vikings lose to the Packers and the Bears, a 3-point road favorite against Detroit, should also lose the Redskins would clinch a playoff berth even before this game started. If that were to be the case, the Redskins' intensity level could drop leaving just Dallas to need a victory for a playoff berth.

It's not a fluke the Packers have defeated the Vikings in 10 of the last 13 meetings, including the past five times. The Packers are the superior team. Green Bay beat Minnesota, 23-14, in Week 13 despite not playing well.

Look for Green Bay to play much better this time around. The Packers are clearly peaking winning nine of their last 10. Green Bay is 12-3 ATS the past 15 times they've met a foe with a winning record.

The Vikings took advantage of a surprisingly flat Houston squad this past Sunday. Kudos to the Vikings for that. But the Vikings remain a limited team with a major weakness at quarterback.

Adrian Peterson is getting a lot of MVP run. No one has made a greater comeback in his first season back from a serious knee injury like Peterson. He's a great player. But Aaron Rodgers is quietly having another MVP-type season, too, with a 35-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

The Vikings' strengths are Peterson, their pass rush particularly Jared Allen and a decent secondary. The Packers are well aware of Peterson. They are going to key on him knowing they don't have to respect the downfield passing of Christian Ponder. No Minnesota wide receiver has more than 53 receiving yards in a game since Week 10.

Rodgers nullifies Minnesota's pass rush with his quick release and outstanding mobility. The Packers quietly have improved their ground attack rushing for triple digits in six of their last seven games. So the Vikings have to pay at least lip service to Green Bay's rushing attack.

Cincinnati is playing well going 6-1 in their last seven games with its only loss during this span coming to Dallas by one point on a Cowboys field goal with four seconds left.

Baltimore has lost three of its last four and does not perform nearly as well on the road as it does at home. Before scoring 33 points against the Giants at home last week, the Ravens had averaged 18.2 points in their last five games.

Joe Flacco has his lowest road completion percentage of his career this season at 57.1 percent, averaging just six yards per attempt on the road. The Ravens' defense, racked by injuries to key performers, is down from past editions. The Ravens have surrendered 29 or more points five times this season.

Bengals coach Marvin Lewis will not be resting starters. He wants to win this game to go into the playoffs with momentum. The Bengals have been eliminated in first-round playoff action two of the past three years because Lewis sat out starters and his team was flat.

The Ravens, by contrast, are best served by actually losing this game. That would give them the No. 4 seed in the AFC and allow them to play the Colts and then possibly the Texans instead of a second-round draw against the Patriots or Broncos.

A field goal may not seem like much, but it's huge in this matchup of two outstanding defensive teams.

This game is going to be decided by who runs the ball better and which quarterback makes the fewer mistakes. Michigan State has the best running back, Le'Veon Bell, plus is getting the points. The underdog is a combined 19-8 ATS in games this season involving Michigan State and TCU.

Bell led the Big Ten in rushing at 137.3 yards per game. He had 11 rushing touchdowns. Michigan State's defense ranked fourth in yardage holding foes to 274.5 per game. The Spartans gave up only five touchdowns on the ground. Notre Dame is the only school to surrender less.

Both teams had disappointing seasons. The Spartans defeated Boise State and won at Rose Bowl-bound Wisconsin, something they hadn't done in 11 years. However, the Spartans lost five conference games by an average of 2.6 points. The only team to beat Michigan State by more than four points was Notre Dame.

TCU opened 4-0 behind quarterback Casey Pachall. Unfortunately, Pachall was arrested on suspicion of DWI and withdrew from school replaced by erratic Trevone Boykin. The Horned Frogs then lost four of their last six games.

Boykin is more versatile than Spartans' quarterback Andrew Maxwell. Boykin, though, doesn't have Bell to rely on. The Horned Frogs average 3.9 yards per rush, which was the worst mark in the Big 12. Boykin has better big-play receivers than Maxwell, but the Spartans have a strong secondary spearheaded by All-Big Ten selections Johnny Adams and Darqueze Dennard. Maxwell will be able to pick his spots. Boykin will need to make plays against an elite defense.

Note, too, that the Horned Frogs have failed to cover in their last four bowl games.

A Baylor-UCLA matchup in the Holiday Bowl brings out the highest bowl total. Baylor averages 44 points and ranks first in yards per game at 578. The Bears beat Washington, 67-56, in last year's Alamo Bowl. That was the highest scoring regulation game in bowl history.

So on the surface, there is justification for such a monster over/under. But a lot has to go right for these two teams to reach this number. I don't see it happening for a number of reasons.

First, there's the venue. The game is being played in San Diego on grass. Baylor is a carpet team. This is just the Bears' third game on grass. They scored 21 against Iowa State and 34 versus Oklahoma in their two previous grass games.

Both offenses could be a little rusty having not played in nearly a month. This is the first time in 21 years that Baylor is playing a bowl game outside of Texas so the Bears' focus may not be all there.

Baylor has an outstanding quarterback, Nick Florence, and wide receiver, Terrance Williams. The Bears, though, did play in the offense-crazy Big 12 where five of the nation's top 12 offenses reside. Still, totals in five of Baylor's last six games fell under 80 points.

UCLA had only one game all season where more than 80 points were produced. The Bruins play in the pass-happy Pac-12. Their defense is respectable giving up less than 26 points a game. The Bruins have a veteran defense that produced 43 sacks, 13 1/2 by linebacker Anthony Barr, who led the nation in sacks. The Bruins also have some big-time talent in their secondary.

While Baylor coach Art Briles has a brilliant offensive mind, UCLA coach Jim Mora Jr. is a respected defensive coach with a strong NFL background.

Baylor has gone to the ground more in its last three games with the emergence of Lache Seastrunk. UCLA has one of the two best runners in the Pac-12 with reliable Jonathan Franklin. The presence of these two running backs should ensure a high number of running plays, which eats clock.

Baylor also has an erratic kicker with Aaron Jones, who missed 11 of 27 field goals this season.

Both San Francisco and Seattle have top-notch defenses. But don't expect a repeat of the team's Week 7 meeting won by the 49ers, 13-6. There is going to be much more scoring in this rematch on both sides.

Jim Harbaugh crossed the Rubicon and gave the go-ahead to ditch his conservative Alex Smith-led offense and go with Colin Kaepernick. It was a gutsy and right call. The 49ers are much more dangerous offensively now with their offense opened up by the mobility and big arm of Kaepernick, who has a combined nine touchdowns and just one interception. The Seahawks are down one of their starting cornerbacks, Brandon Browner.

Russell Wilson has improved, too, since Week 7. He's been especially strong at home with a 12-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The key is that these young quarterbacks - Kaepernick and Wilson - have outstanding running backs to take the pressure off them in Frank Gore and Marshawn Lynch. Gore runs behind one of the best offensive lines in football. Seattle's run defense has slipped. The Seahawks actually surrender the eight-highest run per carry at 4.5. Kaepernick is a dangerous runner in addition to completing 66.4 percent of his throws averaging 6.3 yards per rush. Kaepernick proved his worth winning a shootout against Tom Brady at New England last week.

The 49ers' defense was exposed by a great offense in that victory. Seattle doesn't have a great offense, although Lynch is close to being a great back. But the Seahawks are playing their finest ball scoring 50 and 58 points, respectively, during the past two weeks. Seattle is going to encounter a tired 49ers defense, too. Lynch has averaged 105 yards rushing on 5.2 yards a carry during his last two games against the 49ers.

San Francisco's defense was on the field for 94 snaps last Sunday night against New England. The Patriots ran a lot of no-huddle in the second half to really tire out the 49ers. The 49ers probably won't have underrated star defensive lineman Justin Smith either. He suffered an elbow injury versus the Patriots. Aldon Smith is leading the NFL in sacks thanks in part to Justin Smith. The 49ers didn't apply any pressure on Brady once Justin Smith went out.

OK, the Bears failed in their big NFC North Division showdown last week against Green Bay. But let's not get carried away. The Bears, despite their second-half slump, are still more than a touchdown better than Arizona.

The timing of this matchup, though, makes this a lower than it should be point spread. The Cardinals just defeated Detroit, 38-10, at home. That victory, though, doesn't obscure the fact that the Cardinals have the worst offense in the NFL.

Thanks to their defense coming up with turnovers, the Cardinals scored three short touchdowns on offense against Detroit last week. That gives Arizona's offense 11 touchdowns in its last 10 games. The Cardinals rank last in yards and rushing. They are in the bottom four in scoring and passing. Ryan Lindley and John Skelton have combined to throw just two touchdown passes with 15 interceptions. Lindley, who gets the start here, has yet to throw a touchdown pass and has eight turnovers.

The Bears still have an upper tier defense ranking in the top five in yardage and fewest points. The Bears own the skill position advantages with Jay Cutler, Matt Forte and Brandon Marshall, who has 46 more receptions than Larry Fitzgerald, 724 more receiving yards and six more touchdowns.

Prior to defeating the listless Lions, the Cardinals had lost nine straight. Arizona has failed to cover in four of its last five home contests.

Chicago hasn't lost to a losing team all season. The Bears' losses have been to the Packers, Texans, Seahawks, 49ers and Vikings. The combined record of those teams is 49-20. The Bears are 10-4-1 ATS on the road when playing a foe with a losing home mark.

All of this makes this my NFC Game of the Year.

Buffalo is out of the playoffs for the 13th consecutive year. But it's wrong to assume Buffalo won't have anything to play for in this matchup. Jobs are at stake. This is a division rivalry matchup.

Miami doesn't have a strong enough offense to lay this big of a number and Buffalo's defense isn't nearly as bad as last week's 50-17 score might indicate. Prior to losing to Seattle, the Bills had held their last four opponents to 15, 18, 20 and 14 points. The Dolphins have failed to reach 280 yards of total offense in seven of their last 10 games. Only twice in their last seven games have the Dolphins exceeded 20 points.

Buffalo and Miami met in Week 11. The Bills held the Dolphins to just 184 yards in winning 19-14. The Dolphins are 1-2 ATS as home favorite. They have been terrible in that role through the years covering just 21 percent of the time since 2003.

The Bills have the edge at the skill positions. Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown twice as many touchdowns as Ryan Tannehill. Stevie Johnson is the best wide receiver on either team and C.J. Spiller is better than Reggie Bush. It's a plus for the Bills if injured center Eric Wood is able to return.

Despite giving up 45 sacks and Mason Crosby missing at least one field goal in eight straight games, the Packers have gone 8-1, 7-2 ATS.

The Packers are getting healthier and draw one of the league's weakest teams, Tennessee. This game is made far worse for the Titans because they are traveling into cold weather on a short week following their 14-10 Monday night win against the Jets.

The Jets are terrible, too, but the Titans just managed to squeak past them at home despite a plus 5 turnover advantage.

Now the Titans, a warm-weather team, are facing a late December day in Green Bay with the temperatures expected to be in the 20's. The Titans haven't played a cold weather game in three years. The last time they did was against New England - and they got buried, 59-0.

The return of star linebacker Clay Matthews last week was huge for Green Bay. Matthews makes everyone around him better. The Titans are down four starting offensive linemen plus underrated tight end Jared Cook. Tennessee's only healthy offensive line starter is Michael Roos, who is having a down season.

Some people don't believe in laying double-digits in the NFL. Don't get caught up in any rules like that. The Packers have the explosive offense to put up big numbers against much better defenses than the Titans. The timing of this matchup - a horrendous situational spot for Tennessee - and the Titans' cluster injury problem in the offensive line should ensure Green Bay winning by more than two touchdowns.

Just a couple of years ago, I would give serious pause to trying to go over a total this high. That thinking is old-fashion now in today's high-scoring, protect-the-quarterback, favor-the-offense style that the NFL favors and supports. To be honest, I'm surprised this total isn't higher.

Streaky Tony Romo is hot and he's going against one of the worst defenses of all time last week not withstanding. Despite shutting out Tampa Bay last Sunday, the Saints still rank last in total defense surrendering 433.3 yards per game. New Orleans rates second-to-last in rushing defense AND passing defense.

Romo is averaging 346.4 yards passing at home, the second-best mark in NFL history. Dallas is averaging 29.5 points in its last six games. The return of running back DeMarco Murray, who has scored in each of the last three games after returning from an ankle injury, has been a huge help to Romo.

The Saints are going to put up a big number, too, in this matchup. Drew Brees broke out of a rare slump last week with a four-touchdown game against Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers have the worst pass defense in the league, but Dallas has lost its best inside linebackers and is vulnerable up the middle. The Cowboys also have injuries in their secondary. Brees has passed for at least 298 yards in nine of the Saints' 14 games.

Brees is helped, too, by the long awaited emergence of Mark Ingram. The former Heisman Trophy winner has averaged 5.6 yards in his last 28 carries and has to be accounted for by Dallas with its run defense severely hindered by a season-ending injury to linebacker Sean Lee.

So both teams have balanced offenses right now, are led by elite quarterbacks and going against vulnerable defenses on a fast track.

Matt Ryan is back on track. The Falcons still have motivation needing a win here to clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Lions' vulnerable secondary can't handle the Falcons' high-tier passing attack featuring Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez.

The Lions have lost six in a row. There is no guarantee they will even come to play after rolling over dead this past week against Arizona. Even if the Lions do come to play, they don't know how to close games. They are the biggest choke artists in the league having blown three double-digit leads.

The Lions have a startling lack of discipline, which is reflected in a large number of penalties and stupid plays. Their strengths are stopping the run and throwing the ball. Atlanta's major weakness is stopping the run, but the Lions lack a strong ground game to take advantage of that.

This is a cheap number considering how much better the Falcons are than the Lions.

BYU has the superior defense and is more battled tested having faced four teams in the Top 25, including taking Notre Dame to the wire.

The Cougars have a tremendous defensive front seven. It helped them rank third in total defense at 266.3 yards per game and second versus the run at 84.3 The Cougars held opponents to under 15 points a game.

San Diego State didn't face the level of competition BYU did playing in the Mountain West Conference. The Aztecs did upset then-No. 19 Boise State on Nov. 3, but this wasn't the Boise State squad of past years.

I'm fine if James Lark is BYU's quarterback. Riley Nelson is questionable with a rib injury. Lark threw six touchdowns in his first collegiate start replacing Nelson. He's had ample time to prepare for San Diego State's somewhat unique 3-3-5 defense.

The Cougars are making their eighth consecutive bowl appearance, having won the last three. The game is in Qualcomm Stadium, which is San Diego State's home field. This actually could work against the Aztecs, however, as they have little incentive and reward for their fine season just getting to stay home. BYU also travels well, especially on the West Coast. So the Cougars will have plenty of fan support.

The Jets get far more publicity, but with injuries to Darrelle Revis and Santonio Holmes they are not better than Tennessee.

My matchup analysis rates the Titans as the superior team on a neutral field. Throw in home-field and the Titans are worth backing at this low number.

Both teams are run-oriented. The Titans have the better run defense, though, and Chris Johnson rates far ahead of New York's plodding duo of Shonn Greene and Bilal Powell. New York ranks 29th in run defense. Johnson has had four games of rushing for more than 125 yards in his last 10 games.

The Titans also have the better quarterback with Jake Locker over Mark Sanchez and the better wide receivers. The Jets have the weakest wide receiving group in the league.

The Titans also rate an edge on special teams and their defense has improved.

Pittsburgh is the better and more desperate team. Dallas is terrible at home. How terrible? Try 0-9 ATS in its last nine home games, including 0-6 ATS this season. Dallas also has a poor history in December failing to cover seven of the last nine times.

The Steelers were caught overlooking a San Diego squad that rose from the dead to deal them a stunning 34-24 home loss last week. That was the Steelers' worst game of the season. Expect a much better effort and result. The Cowboys, on the other hand, could have trouble focusing as the reality of linebacker Jerry Brown's death hits home.

The Steelers just assumed they could whip the Chargers at home with Ben Roethlisberger back. They will be much more focused here. Roethlisberger is one of the elite quarterbacks because he upgrades everyone around him including make Mike Wallace relevant again. Dallas has surrendered 971 passing yards and eight passing touchdowns in its last four games facing only one really good quarterback, Robert Griffin III. The other three quarterbacks were rookies Brandon Weeden, Nick Foles and second-year man Andy Dalton.

The Cowboys have a leaky offensive line and their most dangerous receiving threat, Dez Bryant, has a serious finger injury that is going to hamper his performance if not keep him out. The Cowboys' run defense has suffered, too, losing both of their inside linebackers, including the highly talented Sean Lee.

Baltimore's defense is down from past editions. Peyton Manning is still an elite quarterback. Manning is front and center in the MVP discussion with 30 touchdown passes, including three per game during seven of his last 10 games.

The Broncos are averaging 28.8 points a game, second-best in the NFL. Denver is going to get its points against the Ravens' injury-riddled 24th-ranked defense. The Broncos have gone over in seven of their past 10 road games.

The key here is if the Ravens can keep up on the offensive end. I say they will especially with the change of offensive coordinators from old-school Cam Cameron to Jim Caldwell, a strong proponent of the hurry-up offense.

The Ravens' hurry-up offense is much more effective at home. Joe Flacco is an elite quarterback - when playing at M&T Bank Stadium where he's completed 63.3 percent of his passes this year for 1,800 yards with an 11-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Ray Rice is running well, too, gaining 291 yards on his last 50 carriers for an average of 5.8 yards per carry. Baltimore has gone over in five of its six home games this season.

I see the Texans redeeming themselves defensively at home after surrendering 42 points to the Patriots on the road this past Monday night. Houston's defense is not as bad as it has looked the past several weeks.

The Colts are not a strong scoring team on the road, especially when playing outdoors on grass. Andrew Luck has thrown eight touchdown passes away from Lucas Oil Stadium and been picked off 13 times. His quarterback rating is down around 20 points when playing on the road.

The Colts lack a decent ground attack and are down two offensive line starters. The under has cashed in 10 of the Colts' past 11 division games.

Houston is going to be contend to mainly run the ball. The Texans need to get Arian Foster going again. Foster is averaging just 3.3 yards per rush on his last 123 carries. The Texans are a conservative lot and aren't going to run up a score, or throw late if owning a huge lead, since they play Indianapolis again in two weeks.

The Eagles pulled out a dramatic victory against Tampa Bay on the final play of the game this past Sunday on a Nick Foles touchdown pass. But don't think Philadelphia's offense is very good - because it isn't.

Only once in their last 11 games have the Eagles scored more than 23 points. Much of their firepower is gone with Michael Vick, LeSean McCoy and DeSean Jackson all out. Foles is a rookie playing behind a makeshift offensive line that has already had nine different starters.

Cincinnati leads the league in sacks with 42. After some early season struggles, the Bengals' defense is playing at a high level giving up an average of 12.4 points a game during their last five games.

The Bengals are more explosive than the Eagles mainly thanks to A.J. Green. But Cincinnati is going to be very vanilla on offense with the short turnaround time limiting their game and practice preparation, especially being the traveling team. The Bengals also don't want to show anything new in a non-conference matchup against a 4-9 NFC opponent since they are playing division rival Pittsburgh the following week in a game that is much more important.

These stand-alone Thursday games have gone under 75 percent of the time this season as teams don't have the normal amount of time to specifically game plan and put in anything special.

The Bengals also could have problems when it comes to field goals. Cincinnati's regular kicker, Mike Nugent, is dealing with a right calf injury. If Nugent can't go then recently-signed Josh Brown would handle the kicking. Brown is over-the-hill and a dome kicker. There won't be any wind problems, according to the weather forecast, but Brown could have trouble on a grass field.

The Eagles' defense finally showed signs of life last week holding the Buccaneers to 21 points, which was six points under their scoring average. Andy Reid has made several defensive coaching changes. Players are competing for their jobs and their future.

There hasn't been a more disappointing pair of cornerbacks than Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Both are capable of playing much better and that could come here at home on the national stage. The Bengals are weak at wide receiver once you get past Green.

On the surface, this seems like an equally big game for both sides. But it actually means more to New England.


If the Patriots lose they would trail Houston for best overall record in the AFC by three games with three left and would have lost the head-to-head tiebreaker. Denver is in the picture for best record in the AFC at 10-3, but the Texans own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Broncos.


The Texans can lose this game and still control their own destiny as far as getting homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. They would have to win out, but that's very possible with their last three games against Indianapolis twice and Minnesota.


Matchup-wise and situational-wise the Patriots are the right side, too. New England leads the NFL in scoring and total offense. No team is better on third down or in scoring touchdowns in the red-zone. They also don't turn the ball over. Not once have the Patriots lost the turnover battle in any game this season.


Houston's defense is down from what it was at the beginning of the season due to injuries at linebacker and in the secondary. The Texans are allowing 352 yards during their past three games and an average of 26 points. They should have lost to Detroit and Jacksonville during this recent span.


New England has won 28 of its last 30 regular-season home games. The Patriots are much more experienced in marquee nationally televised matchups. They are 10-1 in their last 11 Monday night games winning by an average of more than 20 points per game. The Texans have yet to earn that kind of trust failing to cover on Monday night against the lowly Jets, laying an egg at home against Green Bay on a Sunday night game and sneaking past a generous Lions squad on Thanksgiving.


The Patriots also have a history of playing their best late in the season. New England is 19-1 in the last four games of the regular season since 2007.

Playoff-wise, the Lions are dead. But they're very much alive for this matchup against the division rival they want to beat the most.

The Lions should have beaten the Packers three weeks ago leading by six with less than two minutes left. Detroit wants revenge and to stop hearing about its ghastly 21-game losing streak at Lambeau Field.

The Packers are going to do more running than usual in this matchup for two reasons. The weather isn't going to be pleasant with temperatures in the 20's, a slight wind and scattered snow showers. The other reason Green Bay will run more is to protect the health of Aaron Rodgers, who already has been sacked 39 times not to mention taking a huge amount of hits after passing the ball. The Packers won't be running because they're good at it.

Green Bay has been forced to switch up its offensive line because of a season-ending injury to Bryan Bulaga. The latest change is rookie offensive tackle Don Barclay probably making his first NFL start. The Lions have two major strengths - their top-rated passing attack and an excellent defensive front seven. The Packers are going to have problems handling Detroit's defensive tackles and always have difficulty, as do most teams, keeping Calvin Johnson in check.

The Packers, remember, are still without their best defensive player, Clay Matthews, and their defensive backfield leader, Charles Woodson.

Detroit's secondary is much better with safety Louis Delmas back in the lineup. The Packers are without Jordy Nelson, arguably their best wide receiver.

It would not be shocking in the least if the Lions ended their long losing streak in Green Bay with a win on national TV after blowing three straight home games after leading during the final two minutes in each of them.

When is the betting market going to realize that the Saints aren't very good? This is not their season and this game will emphasize that. The Giants are much better than they showed this past Monday night in losing to the Redskins. Yet so far the money has been on the Saints.

The Saints rely way too much on Drew Brees. They are forced to do this because their defense is 30 yards worse than the next closest defense. The Saints can't rush the passer, tackle well or cover. Despite having the magnificent Brees, the Saints have lost the yardage battle in all but two of their games. Only once in the last six games have the Saints surpassed 385 yards in a game.

And now Brees hasn't been so good because injuries have greatly reduced the effectiveness of New Orleans' offensive line. Brees has been under more pass rush pressure than he's used to as he's been sacked six times in the last two games. Brees has been picked off seven times in the last two games. The Giants' front four rushes the passer as well as any in football. New York is 12-3 when getting three or more sacks in a game. That's very likely to occur here.

Not only is Brees going to be facing a premier pass-rushing unit, but he's outdoors, on a slow track in colder weather than what his offense is used to and might have to deal with rain. The Saints are not built for these conditions. They operate far better at home on turf in a climate-controlled environment.

The Giants have a history of stepping up this time of year as they make a Super Bowl run. The Saints are leaderless and have chemistry issues knowing they don't have a realistic chance of making the playoffs.

You would have to go to October of 2009 to find the last time Baltimore lost two games in a row. The Ravens have been that consistent. I don't buy them as an underdog to the Redskins, a mediocre NFC team that is overrated because they're off a Monday night victory and Robert Griffin III is so exciting capturing the imagination of the public.

The Ravens have played much better at home, but they are a playoff-tested team - one of the four best in the AFC - that is used to big pressure December games. The Ravens' offense isn't flashy away from home. But they don't need to be to beat a Washington defense that ranks 29th in total defense, has the second-worst third-down mark in the league and is second to last in yards allowed after the catch while ranking 31st in pass defense. Look for the Ravens to ride splendid Ray Rice and for Joe Flacco to effectively pick his spots against a weak Washington secondary.

Griffin isn't putting up the huge numbers he was earlier in the season as defenses know how to prepare better for him. The Ravens have a veteran stop unit and catch Washington on a short week after its huge division win against the Giants. Washington is 0-7 the past seven times the week after meeting the Giants.

The Redskins are 3-9 in their last 12 home games and their coach, Mike Shanahan, is a disgusting 4-21 ATS as a home favorite. Baltimore has covered three of the past four times it has been a 'dog during the past two seasons.

The Falcons aren't nearly as good as their fancy 11-1 record indicates, while the Panthers are much better than their 3-9 record. Carolina has the fourth-best mark in yards per play. The Panthers have such a terrible record because they've lost seven games by six or fewer points.

One of those close defeats occurred to Atlanta when the Panthers had the game won. They were running out the clock, but Cam Newton fumbled. The Falcons recovered and ended up kicking a field goal with five seconds left to win, 30-28. That was back in Week 4 and it took a long time for the Panthers to recover from that devastating loss.

Carolina is playing better going 2-3 its last five games after a 1-6 start. That record should be 3-2, but Brandon LaFell dropped a sure touchdown pass against the Chiefs last week. It looks bad that the Panthers lost to the Chiefs, but Kansas City played its finest game of the season.

Newton has raised his level matching his outstanding rookie season of last year. Newton has a 9-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last five games without a single turnover during the past three games. The Falcons' biggest weaknesses is stopping the run. Newton has scored 20 rushing touchdowns in his two year NFL career.

The Panthers are 17-7 ATS in Decembers. They have strong motivation to avenge their earlier defeat to Atlanta, which led to the their season spiraling out of control. This is Carolina's Super Bowl, while the Falcons are fat and happy. They also are playing on an off-surface.

Denver has won seven in a row. The Broncos have scored 30-plus points in all but one of these games. Oakland hasn't broken the 17-point barrier in its last three games.

The scary thing is Denver still can play better. Another scary thing is Denver rolled Oakland, 37-6, in Week 4 when the Raiders were playing better. The Raiders have fallen apart losing and failing to cover in their last five games. Except for last Sunday's home loss to Cleveland, which had lost 12 consecutive road games, the Raiders had lost four straight games by double-digits against competition not as good as the Broncos.

Peyton Manning easily picked the Raiders apart in the first meeting throwing for 338 yards and three touchdowns. The Broncos never punted in that game. Is there any reason for this matchup to be different when the Broncos are playing well and the Raiders have regressed?

The Thursday home side for Oakland is negated by what figures to be low attendance as the Raiders already have been eliminated from the playoffs for the 10th year in a row. Their fans are fed up. Team morale is down. Carson Palmer has been a huge disappointment. The defense has gone from below average to the worst in the league.

The Raiders have surrendered an average of 37.8 points during their five-game losing streak. They have given up 24 touchdown passes ranking last in points allowed and 28th in yardage given up. This is a turkey shoot for Manning.

Robert Griffin III has made the Redskins a nice story and a dangerous foe. Griffin nearly led the Redskins to an upset of the Giants in the first meeting. It took a 77-yard touchdown from Eli Manning to Victor Cruz with 1:13 left for the Giants to pull out a 27-23 victory in Week 7.

New York went 1-2 following that victory, before destroying Green Bay, 38-10, last week following its bye. Just like last season, the Giants are hitting their stride as the season winds down. The Giants have righted the ship and are at their best on the road where they have covered eight of the last nine times. The Giant have covered 70 percent of their last 55 away matchups.

The Redskins, by contrast, have one of the worst home field records under Mike Shanahan losing nine of their last 11 at FedEx Field.

The Giants hold major edges on defense and at wide receiver. Griffin is why this spread is low. The Giants were caught off guard by how fast and quick Griffin was when they met the Redskins the first time. They won't be surprised this time around.

Because of their outstanding pass rushers on the defensive line, the Giants will be able to successfully have one of their linebackers shadow Griffin, which lesser defenses couldn't afford to do.

Baltimore beat Pittsburgh by three on the road when Byron Leftwich was the Steelers' quarterback. Now the Ravens are home and Charlie Batch is the Steelers' quarterback. He's even worse than Leftwich.

The Ravens have won 20 of their last 21 home games, including the last 15. Their hurry-up offense works much better at home. Joe Flacco has 10 touchdown passes and averages 322 passing yards at home compared to three touchdown throws on the road and a 176-yard passing average.

The Steelers' defense still is good, but it's not nearly dominant enough anymore to hang with the Ravens. The Steelers are going to need to put up points to keep up with the Ravens and that's not going to happen with Batch playing behind a makeshift offensive line and without a strong ground attack.

The Ravens are 5-0 versus the Steelers since 2005 when Ben Roethlisberger doesn't play. This is a kill spot for Baltimore.

First, there's the record. Seattle is 11-1 ATS when taking points the past 12 times it has been an underdog under Pete Carroll, including 5-1 ATS in that role this season.

Second, there's the injury factor. The Bears have a terrible offensive line that has been made worse by a cluster injury problem that occurred last week. Lost for the season is right guard Lance Louis, Chicago's best blocker. The Bears also have multiple injuries at receiver, too, with Alshon Jeffery, Devin Hester and tight end Kellen Davis all hurt. In addition, Matt Forte, Charles Tillman and Lance Briggs are all less at 100 percent after they were injured.

Third is the matchup situation. Seattle should win the battle of trenches on both sides of the ball. Seattle plays outstanding run defense. Its safeties are the most physical in football. The Seahawks also will have both of their very good cornerbacks, Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner. Those two are appealing suspensions for allegedly violating the league's performance-enhancing drug and are thus eligible to play in this matchup.

Seattle's defensive line should not only win the battle of the pits but dominate the Bears' bad offensive line making it impossible for Jay Cutler to get into a comfortable rhythm.

The Seahawks have the edge running the ball with Marshawn Lynch. The Bears' run defense is wearing down. They've surrendered 521 yards on 102 carries during their last four games, an average of 5.1 yards per run. Russell Wilson is getting better as the year goes on. He's thrown 12 touchdown passes with just two interceptions during the last six games.

This is one of the lowest totals of the season. The Seahawks have held eight of their 11 opponents to 20 points or less. Points are going to be hard to come by so taking more than a field goal is huge.

The 49ers have the best defense in football and now their offense is improved with the quarterback switch of weak-arm, conservative Alex Smith to Colin Kaepernick.

Kaepernick already has nearly half as many big passes, consisting of 20 yards or longer, in two starts than Smith had in nine starts. The 49ers dropped a high number of Kaepernick's throws, but that will get fixed as they make the adjustment from Smith's soft lobs to Kaepernick's harder ball.

San Francisco has held six of its last nine foes to seven points or fewer. The Rams don't have the offense to dent the 49ers' dominant defense, which is giving up the fewest points in the league at 14.1 while ranking in the top five in pass defense and rush defense.

The Rams have only defeated the Cardinals during their last seven games. The 49ers will be taking St. Louis very serious not just because of the division rivalry but because of the team's 24-24 tie in the first meeting.

The 49ers are prime Super Bowl contenders. The Rams are young with many weak areas that need shoring up. They aren't ready to hang within a touchdown of a motivated 49ers team that is playing extremely well going 5-0-1 in their last six games.

Arkansas State is better than Middle Tennessee State on both sides of the ball, are playing at home, have the better quarterback and a number of other factors going its way. All of this makes the Red Wolves a strong choice to win by double-digits.

The favorite in this series has covered eight of the last nine times. The Red Wolves won last season's meeting, 45-19, easily covering as 10 1/2-point favorites. The Blue Raiders are much improved from last year's 2-10 season, but they still aren't within double digits of Arkansas State.

Arkansas State has been a money-making machine covering 17 of its last 23 regular-season games for 74 percent. Middle Tennessee State is 2-6 ATS when facing opponents with a winning record.

Arkansas State is 6-0 in its last six games, going 5-1 ATS. The Red Wolves also are off a bye. Middle Tennessee State edged Troy at home, 24-21, last week. The Blue Raiders needed a plus 3 turnover ratio to accomplish this. Their winning touchdown came on a 77-yard interception return.

Arkansas State's record-setting quarterback, Ryan Aplin, should have success against Middle Tennessee State, which has multiple injuries in its defensive backfield. The Blue Raiders also will be missing linebacker Craig Allen, who suffered a serious neck injury last week. Aplin is the best offensive player in the Sun Belt Conference. He has completed better than 66 percent of his throws with a 20-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio.