Minnesota lacks the quarterback, pass defense and strength of schedule to stay within single digits of Washington State.  Washington State's Luke Falk is one of the top quarterbacks in the country. He's completed 71 percent of his passes for 4,204 yards with a 37-to-10 touchdown to interception ratio. The Cougars also have a decent ground attack and their best defense in the five years Mike Leach has been their coach.  Falk has a versatile group of receivers with 10 difference players catching at least one touchdown pass. The Cougars rank No. 2 in passing yards per game.  Minnesota ranks 70th in pass defense. The Gophers also had the second-worst pass defense in the Big Ten, a conference not known for their quarterbacks. Making matters worse for the Gophers is that several of their defensive backs, including two starters, are among 10 players suspended for the game.  The Gophers missed practices by threatening to boycott the game in protest of the suspensions, which stemmed from an incident in an off-campus apartment back in early September. The threaten boycott never materialized. The Gophers don't have the speed nor talent to defend against Washington State's high-powered offense. Minnesota hasn't faced this type of fast-tempo style playing a weak schedule being in the Big Ten.  The Big Ten has been terrible against the spread in bowl play going 32-45 ATS, including 2-5 ATS last season and 0-1 ATS this season with Maryland losing straight-up as a short favorite against Boston College. Minnesota's weak offense can't keep up with Washington State. Mitch Leidner threw just seven touchdown passes and had 12 interceptions. He's one of the weaker quarterbacks in the Big Ten.  

No team gives up fewer yards per game than Houston. The Texans have been held back by the atrocious quarterback play of Brock Osweiler, the $72 million dollar bust.  Bill O'Brien finally has seen the light benching Osweiler for Tom Savage. Now I'm not nominating Savage for All-Pro status, but he's a clear upgrade on Osweiler. Savage is a downfield threat and makes DeAndre Hopkins, a top-10 wide receiver talent, viable again.  The Texans are trying to win a division title. They are home, have the superior defense and stronger motivation. The Bengals are going to miss the playoffs for the first time in five seasons. They just lost a close game to their arch-rival, the Steelers, this past Sunday. Now they have to travel on Christmas week for a game that doesn't mean anything to them.  The Bengals are 1-5 SU and ATS during their last six road games with their lone away victory during this span coming against the winless Browns. The most points the Bengals have scored on the road s is 23 and that occurred against Cleveland and the 4-10 Jets in Week 1. In their other five road games, the Bengals average 16.2 points a game. Cincinnati management showed that it doesn't care about winning this game by making the decision to hold out A.J. Green, who had been cleared to play. 

The marketplace has bet this game up - and the move is right. Both teams are strong offensively, but Old Dominion has the superior defense and an edge in this setting.

The Ravens aren't going to have an offensive explosion against the Patriots like they did against the Dolphins this past Sunday. That was just Joe Flacco's third multi-touchdown passing game of the season. He's a below average quarterback in my view and isn't helped by any special skill position talent especially at running back. 
New England has an underrated defense ranking third in fewest points allowed at 17.2 and ninth in fewest yards given up per game. 
Baltimore has the No. 1 run defense. The Patriots have had to scale back their once diverse offense because of Rob Gronkowski being out. Their wide receiver group is down reliable possession receiver Danny Amendola, too. Tom Brady hasn't been 100 percent hobbled by a sore knee.

The Vikings are the fresher team having played last Thursday and have playoff incentive something the Jaguars lack.

Minnesota gives up the third-fewest yards per game and fourth-fewest points. The Jaguars are averaging just 17.5 points per contest during their last eight games. Minnesota yields just 17.4 points per game. 

This is one game where you should have a good idea of where the turnovers are going to fall. The Vikings are No. 2 in the NFL in takeaways/giveaways at plus 13. The Jaguars are last at minus 18. 

Blake Bortles has more pick-sixs than wins during his three-year NFL career. 

Expect the Seahawks to take no prisoners here in a double revenge spot against the Panthers, who beat them in the regular season and playoffs last season. 
The Seahawks are at their finest during the home stretch going 18-4 SU, 16-6 ATS from November through January during the regular season. 
Seattle has the best outdoor home advantage in football and the Seahawks fans will be rocking here in this nationally televised matchup. The Seahawks have gotten healthier while the Panthers are demoralized and extremely banged-up.
Cam Newton is having a down season. The Panthers haven't been able to protect him giving up 32 sacks. Carolina is down to its third-string center. Seattle has star safety Earl Thomas back and elite pass rusher Michael Bennett should be back, too. 
Russell Wilson is finally healthy. That makes him a dual threat. He'll take advantage of a Carolina defense missing its leading tackler and emotional leader, Luke Kuechly, top pass rusher Mario Addison, who leads the team with nine sacks, and free safety Kurt Coleman. All three are injured. 

This is the lowest total on the Week 13 NFL betting board. So taking more than a field goal is huge even though it's with Jacksonville. 
The Jaguars are poorly coached and have injuries with Chris Ivory, Allen Hurns and Julius Thomas all likely not to play.
But the Broncos are in worst shape offensively with a below par ground attack, mediocre offensive line and rookie Paxton Lynch forced to make a road start. Jacksonville has a very underrated secondary having not allowed more than 280 yards passing to any quarterback. The Broncos figure to be ultra-conservative with Lynch, which isn't a great ingredient to cover a spread as road chalk. 
Denver's defense has surrendered 83 points in its last three games. The Broncos' defense still is very good, but it's not as dominant as last season. Blake Bortles brings a huge mobility element. 
The Jaguars have come very close at home nearly upsetting Green Bay opening week, losing to the Ravens by two points, beating the Colts and falling to the Texans by three. Jacksonville could have won all of those games. The Jaguars' only bad home loss was to the 9-2 Raiders. 
Given the Broncos' limited resources offensively, the Jaguars should be in for another close call at home. 

Thanks to Colin Kaepernick the 49ers have shown much improvement during the last three weeks playing the Cardinals, Patriots and Dolphins all tough. Now San Francisco steps way down in class.
Kaepernick has accounted for multiple touchdowns in his last four games. He's a dual threat maybe the best running quarterback in the NFL right now. The Bears are littered with injuries and suspensions everywhere, including inside linebackers minus Jerrell Freeman and Danny Trevathan. That makes Chicago extremely vulnerable to the 49ers' read-option offense. 
The Bears aren't going to be able to keep up with the 49ers because of multiple injuries to key offensive linemen and skill position players. Matt Barkley will be making just his second pro start. He's missing several of his best offensive linemen and is throwing to backup receivers, who dropped numerous passes last week. The Bears' two best pass catchers are Alshon Jeffery, who is suspended, and tight end Zach Miller, who's out for the season. 
Home-field doesn't matter much when it's the Bears. Chicago has lost 13 of its last 16 at Solider Field going 5-11 ATS. 

The host has won all three Mountain West Conference title games. Look for Wyoming to contribute to that trend. 
Wyoming averages nine more points per game than San Diego State and the Aztecs' defense has vanished the last two weeks. 
Just two weeks ago, Wyoming nipped San Diego State, 34-33, in Laramie as 10-point 'dogs. The score shouldn't have been that close, but San Diego State returned two kickoffs for touchdowns and scored another touchdown on a Hail Mary pass. Wyoming outgained San Diego State by 97 yards and had 12 more first downs. Now the Aztecs have to return to Laramie where the temperature forecast is for the teens-to-low 20's. Not exactly San Diego beach weather. 
Wyoming has proven itself at home beating Northern Illinois, Air Force, Boise State along with San Diego State. The Cowboys were at least a touchdown 'dog in all of those games. 
After losing to Wyoming, San Diego State got buried by Colorado State, 63-31, at home last week. The Rams picked up 507 yards in that game. 
The Aztecs heavily rely on running back Donnell Pumphrey. But he's gotten worn down having carried the ball 305 times this season. Pumphrey hasn't run for more than 76 yards in each of the last two games. 
Wyoming has its own outstanding runner, Brian Hill, plus playmaking deep threat Tanner Gentry and quarterback Josh Allen. 

Idaho's offense has come on. The Vandals have the necessary skill position players to get this total over. The over has cashed in 11 of Idaho's last 17 games.The Vandals also have a top place-kicker in Austin Rehkow. 
Georgia State has a better offense than defense. I can't see Georgia State's slowing down Idaho's ground attack and the total is low enough to get involved. 

Louisiana Monroe is very dangerous offensively at home. The Warhawks have gone over in their last three home contests averaging 37.6 points in those games. Opponents, though, have scored 35, 34 and 34 points against Monroe in those games.
Lafayette is going to get a heavy share of points here, too. Louisiana Monroe has one of the worst defenses in the country giving up nearly 40 points per game. 

These are two slow-paced run-oriented teams. So why is the total so high for this American Athletic Conference title game? Oddsmaker can't help but over inflate the line after Navy's 75-31 win against SMU last week with the Midshipmen picking up 605 yards. That help pump Navy's scoring average to more than 41 points per game.
But the Midshipmen have taken advantage of a lot of bad defenses, including SMU. Now they're facing Temple, which gives up the third-fewest yards in the nation. A key for the Owls is experienced linebackers, a crucial element in slowing down Navy's option attack.
Temple lacks elite talent at the skill positions. Owls quarterback Phillip Walker has been picked off 12 times. However, the Owls have a solid ground attack that is more substance than style controlling the ball for more than 34 minutes per game, which ranks fifth in the nation. That keeps the ball away from Navy and is good for the under. These teams may put up touchdowns, but they are going to come following long drives that eat up clock. It's an added bonus if they have to settle for field goals.   
Temple played in last year's ACC championship game and held Houston, a team averaging 40 points, to 24 points in a 24-13 loss. Both teams finished with less than 400 yards of offense and the total went under by 15 1/2 points. 

Colorado's had a great season, but now the Buffaloes meet their Waterloo here in the Pac-12 title game.
Washington has the conference's top defense yielding just 17.8 points per game, a big edge in speed and skill position players with Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year quarterback Jake Browning and a special teams advantage in both returns and place-kicking. 
The Huskies also have big-game experience, which Colorado lacks. Add this all up and the Huskies win by double-digits. 
Washington is the fresher team off consecutive blowout victories against Arizona State and Washington State. Colorado is off a tough physical 27-22 home win against Utah last week. The week before the Buffaloes came from trailing late in the third quarter to win against Washington State, 38-24. 
The Huskies have won their bowl game in three of the past four years. Their coach, Chris Peterson, has a history of big game having coached at Boise State. 
Colorado hasn't been on the national stage in years. The Buffaloes' last bowl appearance was nine years ago. Their coach, Mike MacIntyre, did a great job this season but he doesn't have Peterson's bowl and big game resume. 
Style points matter here, too, for the Huskies. They want a college football playoff berth so a big spread win would help that cause. The Huskies already have beaten nine opponents by at least 24 points. 

Dallas is on a tremendous roll, but that stops here. The Cowboys aren't that strong to be laying this number on the road against this classy of a defense and against this strong of a home field, which ranks among the best in football. 
Stefon Diggs is expected to play, which is huge for the Vikings. Sam Bradford's short passing game will be a lot more effective at home and with Diggs in the lineup. The Cowboys do not have a strong secondary. Their defense relies on their offense to play ball control. 
The Vikings give up the second-fewest points and third-fewest yards. The short time frame also hurts the visiting Cowboys. 

Talent-wise the Packers are better than the Eagles. Philadelphia is tough at home, but Green Bay is way overdue to play better. I see that occurring here as the Packers are improved on offense and their defense is getting key players back. Clay Matthews played last week and cornerback Damarious Randall and linebacker Jake Ryan are expected back Monday. 
The Packers have outstanding wide receiver depth. Cornerback is a major weakness for the Eagles. One player Aaron Rodgers will look to target is seventh-round rookie draft choice Jalen Mills. Rodgers has the receiving depth to go after Mills with Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams and Randall Cobb. It's a plus for Green Bay's offense that tight end Jared Cook is back. James Starks provides enough of a running threat for the Eagles to respect play-action. 
Carson Wentz lacks the playmakers Green Bay has. He's inconsistent as most rookies are and won't be able to match Rodgers. The Eagles have the worst receivers in the league and their best running back, Ryan Mathews, is out. 
Green Bay's defense has been torched the past few weeks. But the Packers' last four games have been against very strong offenses - Redskins, Titans, Colts and Falcons. All of those teams have above average quarterbacks. The Eagles don't. 
Much is made of Green Bay not playing well, but the Eagles are just 1-3 in their last four games. This is the right time now to jump on the Packers. 

Credit Jack Del Rio with doing a great job this season with the Raiders. Having said that, though, I believe the Raiders are very overrated. Yes, they are 8-2. But they've also been outgained on the season, have committed the most penalties in the league by far and are 1-3 ATS in games played in Oakland. 
The Panthers are showing signs of what made them last season's NFC champions. They have won three of their last four games holding all of these foes - including New Orleans and Arizona - to fewer than 21 points. 
Carolina has won straight-up the last four times it has been an underdog. The Raiders are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games and have also failed to cover nine of the last 13 times they've played a below .500 opponent. 
The Panthers' ground attack is due to pick up now that Jonathan Stewart is back in the lineup. The Raiders have yielded 100 yards rushing in all but three of their games. 
The timing isn't good either for the Raiders here. They just played Monday night in high, high altitude and dirty air in Mexico City having to go to the wire to beat Houston. Oakland's defense was on the field for more than 36 minutes in that victory. 

Tom Brady has been back for six games. He has a 16-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and because of him the Patriots have averaged 31.6 points per game in their last six games. That would rank No. 2 in the NFL if it were computed over the entire season. 
It's a plus if Rob Gronkowski is able to play this week. But even if he doesn't, Brady has more than enough weapons especially with Dion Lewis making his season debut last week. Lost in another brilliant Brady season is the great running of LeGarrette Blount. He's seventh in rushing and tied for the league lead in touchdowns. 
The Jets' defense has slipped especially cornerback Darrelle Revis. New York is 21st in scoring defense allowing 24.4 points per game. It's a given that New England is going to get its share of points. 
But can the Jets put up their share of points, too? 
I say they can. New England's defense is mediocre at best. The Jets averaged 24.5 points against New England in their two meetings last season. Ryan Fitzpatrick averaged 295.5 yards passing against the Patriots with five touchdowns last year. The Jets have the advantage of being idle last week giving them extra time to game plan. 
There should be no weather-related problems. The forecast is for a clear day with temperatures in the 40s and just a light wind. 

You have to go back to the opening game of the 2012 season to find the last time Baltimore beat Cincinnati by more than four points. Since then the Bengals have dominated this series winning the past five times. 
The Bengals have made the playoffs the past five years. That streak is in serious jeopardy if the Bengals lose this game. Cincinnati isn't as good as it has been the last few years. However, the Ravens are in down mode, too, better than last season but not nearly as good as their playoff team of two years ago. 
This is a key divisional showdown between two good defensive teams with mediocre quarterbacks so points are at a premium. I want this many points going for me here.
Both teams are averaging exactly 19.9 points per game. Andy Dalton is merely a game manager minus top wide receiver A.J. Green. But Joe Flacco is worse ranking 27th in the passer ratings. 
Much is made of the Bengals losing Green and running back Giovani Bernard to injuries in last week's 16-12 loss to Buffalo. But the Ravens have injuries, too, in their offensive line and at cornerback where Jimmy Smith, their top pass defender, is questionable after missing last week.
The Ravens are the second-most penalized team in the NFL. The Bengals have committed the seventh fewest penalties. The Ravens aren't good enough to lay this many points here against this prideful and playoff-experienced foe that has covered 15 of the last 22 times following a loss. 

Arizona is better than its 4-5-1 record. The Cardinals are in must-win mode and the pointspread has become inflated. 
David Johnson is a top-three running back and the Cardinals' defense gives up the fewest yards per game. The Cardinals get back key playmaking safety Tyrann Mathieu and have All-Pro cornerback to shadow Julio Jones. 
The Falcons don't generate much pass pressure and their offense is less effective when Jones can be handled in single coverage. Peterson is one of the few cornerbacks capable of handling Jones. 

The answer is yes I can trust the Titans on the road - against this battered foe whose season is shot.
Tennessee is in must-win mode at 5-6. Marcus Mariota showed potential as a rookie last season and he has burst out into star status during the last seven weeks throwing 19 touchdown passes with just three interceptions during this span. The Titans are averaging 31 points during this time frame. 
The Titans aren't one-dimensional offensively. DeMarco Murray still is an elite running back. He has five 100-yard rushing games this season. 
Injuries have turned the Bears from a slightly-below .500 type team into a bottom feeder ranking among the five worst teams in the NFL. 
Chicago may shut down Jay Cutler, who has no chance of sparking an offense composed of backup receivers and backup offensive linemen. Alshon Jeffery and Zach Miller are Cutler's two top targets. Jeffery is suspended and Miller is likely done for the year after suffering a broken foot this past Sunday. The Bears have multiple offensive line injuries, too, along with key defensive players out or suspended. 
About the only strength Chicago had was its run defense, but that is now a weakness, too, with nose tackle Eddie Goldman missing last week. Mariota and Murray can light up this defense. 
Dick LeBeau has improved Tennessee's defense. The Titans now have a respectable pass rush. Their secondary is vulnerable, but the Bears lack the necessary passing attack to take advantage. 
Chicago's home field advantage is just about nil. The Bears have dropped 12 of their last 15 at Solider Field going 5-10 ATS in those games. 

Stanford's offense is coming on as the Cardinal is averaging 39.2 points in their last four games. Rice surrenders 37.2 points a game and ranks 123rd in total defense. The Owls give up 7.3 yards per play and won't be able to contain Stanford's star running back, Christian McCaffrey. 
Stanford's offensive revival started when Keller Chryst took over the starting quarterback job. He's thrown for 456 yards five touchdowns in the last two games. 
The Owls, though, are averaging more than 30 points during their last three games. Rice beat UTEP, 44-24, last week and did it with redshirt freshman quarterback Jackson Tyner replacing starter Tyler Stehling in the opening drive of the game after Stehling was hurt. Tyner will get the start here.
The Owls have gone over the total 69 percent of the time during their last 68 road games. 

No offense is hotter than Tennessee's. The Volunteers are averaging a staggering 55.6 points in their last three games. Tennessee quarterback Joshua Dobbs has stepped up to account for 10 touchdowns during the last two weeks. Dobbs' 24 touchdown passes are the most in the SEC.
Vanderbilt can't match Dobbs' passing, but the Commodores have a solid ground attack rushing for an average of 313 yards during the past three weeks. Ralph Webb needs just 27 yards to become Vanderbilt's all-time leading rusher. Tennessee has a weak run defense ranking 117th in rush defense yielding an average of 237.9 yards on the ground. 

I'd be surprised if UNLV attempted more than 18 passes in this game unless forced to throw. The Rebels are a running team with a cluster injury problem at wide receiver. Nevada Reno's offense is more balanced but facing a Rebel defense strong at linebacker and senior-laden in the secondary. 
Temperature-wise this game is fine, but gusty winds from 20-to-30 mph are forecast. 
UNLV is on its third quarterback, Kurt Palandech. He's far more of a runner than passer. The Rebels are down to all freshmen wide receives due to injuries. The Wolf Pack rank fifth in the nation in pass defense. They know the Rebels are primed to run the ball so they will stack the line not afraid to load the box. 
There were just 40 points scored in last year's UNLV-Reno game. In the three years since Brian Pollian has been Reno's coach, the Wolf Pack have held UNLV to 27 points or fewer. 

The numbers are 34, 21, 24, 12, 27 1/2, and 16 1/2. Those are the spreads Oregon has been favored against Oregon State during the last six years. Oregon has won all of those games against arch-rival Oregon State with only one of the victories being by less than 10 points. 
Yes, Oregon fell off a cliff this season, their worst in two decades. But the Ducks still hold a major talent gap, are off a victory that shows they still can be dangerous are treating this matchup as their Super Bowl. 
I want all that going for me and this short spread is a path to involvement. 
Oregon State is having another crummy year at 3-8. That's to be expected. The Beavers are always a lower tier Pac-12 team. What's shocking is Oregon falling to 4-7. The Ducks, though, are coming off a 30-28 upset win of then-11th ranked Utah. 
That victory can't salvage a lost season for the Ducks, but it does give them confidence going into this traditional in-state rivalry matchup. 
Oregon's offense remains potent behind Justin Herbert. It's a big step down in defensive class that Oregon is used to seeing after facing Utah, Southern Cal and Stanford during its last three games. 
The road team has dominated this series going 9-1-1 ATS the past 11 times. Oregon is 5-0 ATS the past five times playing at Oregon State. 

Kansas State can come close to covering this number on its own. The The Wildcats have a balanced offense with running backs Alex Barnes and Charles Jones along with Jesse Ertz helping Kansas State average more than 32 points a game. Kansas gives up 37.6 points per contest and ranks 111th in run defense. Look for the Wildcats to run all over the worn down Jayhawks. 
Kansas' offense has picked up, though, with redshirt freshman quarterback Carter Stanley starting the last two games. The Jayhawks have scored 24 points in each of their last two games. Stanley has a very good receiver in Steven Sims Jr., who has 67 receptions for seven touchdowns and 818 yards. 

It's worth noting, too, the over has cashed five of the last six times the teams have met. 

Only once this season has Air Force been an underdog. That was as a one-point road 'dog to Army, a game the Falcons won, 31-12, three weeks ago.
Now the Falcons are more than a touchdown 'dog to Boise State. No, I'm not buying that. Air Force has defeated the Broncos each of the past two years winning 37-30 in Boise last season and 28-14 at home in 2014. 
Air Force is the fourth-leading rushing team in the country. The Falcons' offense has gotten better with the switch to sophomore quarterback Arion Worthman. Air Force has won four in a row averaging 38 points during this span. 
Boise State has failed to cover eight of 11 games. They are going to have problems with Air Force's triple-option attack especially down two injured starting linebackers. 

Minnesota owned the best defense in the NFL during the first five weeks holding opponents to 12.6 points per game in opening 5-0. 
The Vikings then got cold losing four in a row averaging 14 points a game during this span. Offensive coordinator Norv Turner bailed early this month and there were offensive line injuries. One of the Vikings' defeats during this time frame came to the Lions, 22-16, in overtime. The Vikings were playing their worst ball during this time yet the Lions were going to lose if not for a 58-yard field goal by Matt Prater at the end of regulation that forced overtime. 
Minnesota is playing better now having just defeated the Cardinals, 30-24, at home. The disadvantage of playing on the road on Thursday is mitigated here by the short travel and the Vikings familiarity with the Lions, who they played less than three weeks ago. 
Neither team can run the ball. Matthew Stafford was hot early in the season, but has cooled off considerably. He has not passed for more than 278 yards during his last seven games. The Lions could manage only one touchdown on offense versus the lowly Jaguars at home last Sunday. Stafford is averaging one touchdown pass per game in his last four games. That's not impressive in today's pass happy, offensive-skewed NFL. 
The Vikings hold a strong defensive and coaching edge here. Mike Zimmer is a defensive guru and he knows how to defend Stafford. The Lions are averaging 16.8 points in regulation in five games against the Zimmer-coached Vikings. Not once have the Lions been able to reach 20 points against Minnesota in regulation during the Zimmer era. 
The Vikings are used now to playing indoors on turf. Their offense showed signs of improvement last week more comfortable now that new offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur has had a few weeks to get acclimated. 

I consider the Patriots to be the team to beat in the Super Bowl. At the other end, I consider the 49ers right there with the Browns as the worst team in the NFL. 
You can talk that this is a long trip for the Patriots and they won't have injured Rob Gronkowski. But the Patriots still should bury this opponent especially given the circumstances.
New England just lost at home to Seattle. That doesn't sit well with Bill Belichick. The Patriots have covered 74 percent of the time following a defeat during the past 43 instances. 
Since Week 1, the 49ers have gone 0-8 SU, 1-7 ATS. Their defense has fallen apart due to their best players getting hurt and fatigue from their offense playing at such a fast-tempo. In their last eight games, the 49ers are giving up an average of 35 points and 460 yards.
The Patriots are averaging 32 points per contest since Tom Brady came back from suspension five games ago. Brady has the highest passer rating in the league at 125.5 with a 12-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. LeGarrette Blount has put up the most touchdowns of any non-quarterback. Gronkowski is the best tight end in football. But Martellius Bennett is a top-10 talent. 
San Francisco's offense has improved since Colin Kaepernick took over from Blaine Gabbert. But it remains limited and well below average. The 49ers are not going to be able to keep up with a motivated and mad Patriots squad that has an elite offense. 

Miami has won four in a row. The Dolphins are staying in Southern California after upsetting San Diego this past Sunday so long travel is negated. 
The Dolphins are playing much better. A key has been the emergence of Jay Ajayi, who is the hottest running back in football with 608 yards rushing in his last four games. That's more yards than Todd Gurley has managed all season.
But the main reason for backing the Dolphins is fading the Rams with their decision to give rookie Jared Goff his first start. Goff was terrible during preseason. It's a testament to how bad Goff is that the Rams have waited all this time to bench ineffective Case Keenum. 
The Rams' strengths were supposed to be Gurley and a tough defense. Gurley hasn't cleared 100 yards rushing all season, averaging a puny 3.1 yards per carry. The Rams defense has forced only two turnovers since Week 4. 

The Lions haven't won a game by more than six points all season. They have a six-point overtime victory. Their other four victories were by a combined 11 points. 
The Jaguars actually gain more yards per game and give up fewer yards per game than the Lions. The Jaguars have outgained their last two opponents - Chiefs and Texans - by close to 280 yards. Those two teams are a combined 13-5. 
Jacksonville has an underrated pass defense and skill position talent. The Lions have a below average defense that was torched by Case Keenum at home and rank 27th in rushing yards. 
Matthew Stafford has tailed off after a hot start. He's gone six games in a row without topping 270 yards passing. Blake Bortles has been turnover prone, but he's connected for multiple touchdown passes in his last three games and is facing a Lions secondary that gives up the third-most touchdown passes and a league-high 112.4 passer rating. 

It's tough to step in against the Cowboys, who have won and covered every game since opening week. But Dallas' line is inflated here. The Ravens are well-coached and strong defensively allowing 17.8 points a game. Only three teams give up fewer points per game. No team yields fewer yards and rushing yards per game than Baltimore. 
The Ravens' four losses were by a combined 19 points for an average loss of 4.7 points. 
The Cowboys are flirting with danger. They narrowly defeated Pittsburgh last week pulling the game out late in a very hard fought battle. The Cowboys also had to go through the distraction of welcoming Tony Romo back this week. The Ravens, on the other hand, are on extra rest having played last Thursday. 
As a home favorite of six or more points, the Cowboys have failed to cover 14 of the last 17 times. 

This is a low total given the firepower of the Cardinals and the matchup being played on a fast track. 
Minnesota's defense isn't playing as well as it did earlier. The Vikings are allowing an average of 22.5 points during their last four games. Carson Palmer has a multitude of weapons to attack headed by David Johnson, who has put up 100 rushing/receiving yards in every game this season, future Hall of Famer and still effective Larry Fitzgerald, home run threat John Brown and a revived Michael Floyd. 
Bruce Arians is an offensive guru. It's difficult to envision the Cardinals not getting their 20 points here. They average more than 22 points per game on the season and rank seventh in total yards.
The Vikings have decent receivers for Sam Bradford, who is accurate when given protection. Stefon Diggs has emerged as a sparkplug force. The Vikings also improved their field goal and extra point kicking by finally cutting Blair Walsh. 
The Cardinals haven't been nearly as effective on defense when play on the road surrendering an average of 28 points a game - facing the Bills, 49ers and Panthers. The 49ers put up 21 and 20 points in their two games versus the Cardinals. The Vikings should be good for at least 20 points, too. 

Clemson can cover this number by itself. Wake Forest played its heart out last week against Louisville even leading the Cardinals in the fourth quarterback. But the Demon Deacons eventually surrendered 44 points and 343 yards rushing. Louisville averaged 9.2 yards per run attempt.
This does not bode well for the Demon Deacons. Clemson's defense got worn down last week in a 43-42 loss to Pittsburgh. The Tigers are in an angry mood and will be pumped to pour it on Wake Forest. They won't be adverse to running up a score especially with rankings at stake. 
The Tigers have a top-15 offense averaging 38.9 points per game. That average climbs to 42.5 points if you count just their last six games - all versus ACC opponents.  

I'm surprised to see this total open so low. Northwestern has some excellent skill position talent. If you discount games against Ohio State and Wisconsin - both of whom have vastly better defenses than Minnesota - the Wildcats are averaging 39.7 points in their last four games. Wildcats QB Clayton Thorson is coming off a career-high 352 yards throwing while accounting for four touchdowns against Purdue. 
Minnesota averages just a shade under 32 points per game. If you discount a 14-7 defeat to Iowa in Week 5, the Gophers have averaged 39.4 points at home against five opponents. 
The Gophers feature one of the best running backs in the country, Rodney Smith. He's rushed for more than 1,000 yards, averages 5.2 yards a carry and has scored 14 touchdowns. 

Duke knows how to win on the road, can take advantage of a weak Pittsburgh secondary and catches the Panthers off a huge upset victory against Clemson. 

The Panthers give up the second-most passing yards in the country and just lost safety and leading tackler Jordan Whitehead. He's out with an arm injury. 

Going back the last three years, Duke is 14-6 away from home. Pitt hasn't been good at home failing to cover in 16 of its last 21 home contests. 

As the competition gets worse, Wisconsin's offense gets rolling. The Badgers rushed for 363 yards against Illinois last week in a 48-3 victory. Now the Badgers draw even a worst defense - Purdue. The Boilermakers defense is just worn down. In their last three games, they've surrendered 62 points to Penn State, 44 to Minnesota and 45 to Northwestern. Only nine teams give up more points per game than Purdue at 38.4.  
The Badgers have a top running back, Corey Clement, to take advantage. After a slow start, Clement has come on to rush for more than 100 yards in four of his last five games. 
Unlike Illinois, Purdue does have a clue on offense. The Boilermakers have scored at least 31 points in half of their last six games. The Boilermakers have that perfect combination for going over the total - a bad defense and decent offense. That's why the over has cashed in eight of Purdue's past nine Big Ten games. 

Back in the 1990's, I covered the UNLV football team and have retained several key sources. It's a team I follow closely living n Las Vegas. I can tell you first-hand this Rebel team is different than what their previous teams from the past 30 years have been. Tony Sanchez is UNLV's best football coach since Harvey Hyde back in the early 1980's. Another big difference is these Rebels can be counted on for a full effort and can now be trusted on the road. That wasn't the case before Sanchez took over. The Rebels are about two-to-three star players away from being a serious conference contender, but they are vastly improved both talent-wise and mentally under Sanchez.
UNLV hasn't lost by more than 23 points in any game this season and it has played some decent competition, including UCLA, Central Michigan, San Diego State and Colorado State. This is a rare nationally televised game (ESPN2) for the Rebels. Sanchez is an excellent recruiter and needs his team to be competitive to help boost recruiting. 

If the Rebels were to spring the upset they would keep alive their bowl chances. UNLV has proven itself when stepping up. The Rebels just defeated Wyoming, 69-66, in triple overtime racking up 653 yards of total offense, including 401 rushing yards. The Rebels rank 14th in the nation in rushing and found the right quarterback as Kurt Palandech accounted for four touchdowns while throwing for 252 yards and running for another 157 against Wyoming in his first start. 
Wyoming beat Boise State just three weeks ago. The Broncos can be run on. San Jose State proved that rushing for 217 yards against them. So did New Mexico, which piled up 382 yards on the ground.
Boise State is explosive but not the powerhouse of previous seasons. The Broncos often are overpriced especially when playing at home. That's the case again here. The Broncos have failed to cover their last eight home games. They are 7-22 ATS at home the past 29 times facing opponents with a losing road record. Boise State played at Hawaii last week and have a bigger game on deck next week playing at Air Force. That's the Broncos revenge game of the year as Air Force beat them in Boise last season.   

The Broncos are going to need to force turnovers to cover a four-touchdown spread against this underrated opponent. Yet Boise State only has seven takeaways on the season. Just two teams in the entire FBS - which is composed of 128 teams - have fewer takeaways. 

At first this spread may seem a little high. But New England is the best team in football while Seattle is down from past seasons and caught in a horrendous situational spot.
New England is 4-0 since Tom Brady returned. Brady has the highest QB rating in the league by far at 133.9. He's thrown 12 touchdown passes without an interception. The Patriots are averaging 34.2 points per game in Brady's four games winning by 20, 18, 11 and 16 points. 
Seattle lacks the skill position talent and offensive line to keep up with Brady. The Seahawks' grit and guts can't overcome that talent gap especially when they're missing at least one key defensive player. Safety Kam Chancellor may return this week, but star pass rusher Michael Bennett remains out. 
Making things worse for Seattle is the situation. The Patriots were idle last week. New England is 11-2 the past 13 times off a bye, 8-5 ATS. The extra practice time should make Brady even sharper. The Patriots also could get back Deion Lewis for this game, which would upgrade their ground attack and give Brady an upgrade pass-catcher out of the backfield. 
The Seahawks just played on Monday night at home in a tough physical, down-to-the-last-minute victory against Buffalo. Now the Seahawks have to travel 3,000 miles on a short week playing in a time zone with a three-hour difference. 

Ben Roethlisberger has had a game to shake off the rust and is back home. That makes Pittsburgh very dangerous. Roethlisberger has a 51-to-13 touchdown-to-interception ratio at Heniz Field since 2014 compared to 19-to-19 on the road during this three-year span. 
Antonio Brown has proven himself to be the best wide receiver in football when Roethlisberger is playing. The pair can dice up a Dallas secondary that is minus Morris Claiborne and Barry Church. 
The Steelers defense has gotten healthy with the return of top linebacker Ryan Shazier and lineman Cameron Heyward. 
The Steelers are in circle-the-wagons mode after three consecutive losses. Dallas is fat and happy with a seven-game win streak and two-game lead in the NFC East Division. 

The Titans are a rising team, much better than believed at the start of the season. Green Bay has been one of more disappointing teams in the league.
But this is a chance to buy low on the Packers, who clearly are superior both at the skill positions but in the trenches, too. Green Bay's No. 3 wideout, Davante Adams, is better than the Titans' top wide receiver. 
Second-year QB Marcus Mariota isn't ready yet at this young stage of his career to beat Aaron Rodgers. The Packers offense is potent enough to score a lot of points especially against a Tennessee defense that has been coached up by Dick LeBeau, but still not very good. 
This is a good time to get behind the Packers with their backs to the wall and enduring a lot of deserved criticism for not playing hard during a surprising home loss to the Colts this past Sunday. 

I'm not buying the Saints being favored against the defending world champions whose defense remains elite. 
Denver ranks No. 1 against the pass holding foes to 183.3 yards through the air. Overall, Denver has the fourth-ranked defense. Von Miller has 9 1/2 sacks. He's the most feared pass rusher in football with J.J. Watt out. Drew Brees is not going to be able to pick Denver's secondary apart. 
By contrast, the Saints rank last in pass defense. Trevor Siemian isn't in Brees' class, not even close. However, the bar is set much lower for him facing such a terrible defense. The Saints are tied for last in sacks with just 11. Siemian has played better on the road, too, with eight touchdown throws and only one interception in four away matchups. 

Colorado State is a bit under the radar improving each week. The Rams have covered in six of their last seven wins and are one win from being bowl eligible. They are fresh from having a bye two weeks ago and easily rolling past pathetic Fresno State last Saturday. 
Air Force is just 2-3 SU in its last five games, 1-4 ATS. The Falcons just beat rival Army, 31-12, on the road in a highly satisfying victory. This is a flat spot for the Falcons, who haven't faced a balanced offense such as Colorado State's all season. 

Bad weather is expected with the weather forecast calling for an 80 percent of rain and wind up to 20 mph. 
But it's not just bad weather why I strongly like this game to go under this posted total. Washington has a tremendous defense and is facing a freshman quarterback, Sam Danold. The Huskies are allowing only 17 points per game. They rank 11th in scoring defense and 18th in total defense. The Huskies are at their stingiest playing at home allowing just 11 points per game. 
USC has picked up its defense led by a pair of outstanding linebackers. The Trojans are giving up an average of fewer than 20 points per game and 368 yards during their last three games. During this span, the Trojans held Oregon, Cal and Arizona to a combined 39 points under their averages. The Trojans have gone under in their last five games and in 10 of their last 14 road games. 
Tempo-wise neither team plays fast. The under is 6-1-1 the past eight times these two teams have met. 

After five straight games of facing tough Big Ten defenses, the Badgers step down in class here. Illinois is surrendering nearly 30 points a game.
Corey Clement was thought to be one of the top running backs coming into the season. He's gotten going after a slow start averaging 121.5 yards per game and 4.4 yards a carry during the last four games. The Badgers have rushed for an average of 204.3 yards per game during this time span. 
This is what Wisconsin coach Paul Chryst was quoted as saying, "I think the line has gotten better. I think the tight ends and fullbacks have done some good things. I think the backs are getting better."
Illinois is down to third-string quarterback Jeff George Jr. The Illini don't have much of an offense, but the Badgers can cover this total by themselves plus I see Illinois putting up some points because they figure to be passing a lot. Wisconsin has several defensive injuries. The Badgers are without their starting nose guard and two starting inside linebackers.

Boston College is an opponent Florida State has problems matching up against. The Eagles have trouble with mobile quarterbacks such as Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson. Florida State doesn't present that. Seminoles freshman quarterback Deondre Francois has rushed for under 90 yards on the season. 
The Eagles have held Florida State's offense to an average of 13 points during the past two years. The Seminoles offense could manage just seven points and 217 yards in last year's game winning 14-0 with one of their touchdowns coming on a defensive fumble return. Florida State barely nipped Boston College, 20-17, two seasons ago at home as 16 1/2-point underdogs. 
Boston College's strength is a run defense that ranks eighth in the nation and second in the ACC. Florida State heavily relies on the running of Dalvin Cook. Boston College can contain him. So it's going to be difficult for the Seminoles to cover by a margin of three touchdowns.
Florida State has laid more than six points three times in its last five games, failing to cover each time.  
Boston College upset North Carolina State as a 16-point road 'dog two weeks ago. The Eagles then fell flat and had problems containing Heisman hopeful Jackson and Louisville last week losing by an embarrassing, 52-7. 
Look for Steve Addazio to have his Eagles motivated for this stand-alone Friday nationally televised (ESPN2) game. Boston College is 15-5-1 ATS the past 21 times following a non-cover. 

Rarely, if ever, am I going to recommend playing the Browns this season. Cleveland's talent level isn't better than expansion level and its priority this season is playing for the future not necessarily winning games.
However, this is that rare spot where the Browns are worth backing. 
Baltimore is struggling mightily on offense. The change in offensive coordinators from Marc Trestman to Marty Mornhinweg three games ago hasn't helped. Joe Flacco is having one of his worst seasons with a 76 passer rating, the Ravens' ground game has been ineffective and their offensive line has been banged-up and isn't playing well either. There haven numerous mistakes and penalties. 
The Ravens are playing on a short week after just beating their biggest division rival, Pittsburgh, this past Sunday due in part to a rusty Ben Roethlisberger. The Ravens could manage only 274 yards against a Steelers defense that ranked 27th in total yards entering the matchup. If you discount Mike Wallace's 95-yard touchdown catch, which came on a slant patter where Wallace took advantage of a missed tackle, the Ravens averaged less than three yards per play versus the Steelers. 
The Ravens have been outgained their last five games. Not one of Baltimore's games this season have been decided by more than eight points. 
The Browns are playing for next year, but they sure don't want to go winless. Their defense is better now with Jamie Collins than what it was in Week 2 when they lost to the Ravens, 25-20. The Browns led 20-0 in that game. They won't lack for motivation here and their familiarity with Baltimore is a key playing on Thursday. The Browns beat the Ravens, 33-30, at Baltimore last season. 

Count me among those not impressed by Buffalo. I think the Bills' coaching is below par, their passing game is weak and the defense not nearly as good as it was two years ago when Jim Schwartz was the defensive coordinator and before Rex Ryan came on board. 
Seattle has a couple of defensive injuries with Kam Chancellor and Michael Bennett out. The Seahawks still are very strong defensively. Buffalo could be missing two of its key offensive players if LeSean McCoy and left tackle Cody Glenn can't play due to injuries. The Bills actually would be doing the wise thing by holding out McCoy giving his sore hamstring another two weeks of rest since the team has a bye following this game.
Injuries have limited Russell Wilson into being merely a glorified game manager. But Wilson is healthy now restoring his dangerous dual threat capability. I can see a big game coming from him. The Bills aren't likely to have run-stuffer Marcell Dareus. So the Seahawks should be able to run, which makes Wilson even more effective.
The Bills are making a cross country journey into the toughest outdoor venue in the NFL. Since 2013, the Seahawks have won 28 of 32 home games. 

Love the Chargers as 'dogs, hate them as favorites where they are 1-5 ATS the past six times in that role losing straight-up in four of those games. 
Tennessee just may be the best team in the AFC South Division. Now perhaps that's faint praise, but Tennessee is vastly improved in all areas. 
Backed by a resurgent DeMarco Murray and what now has become a decent offensive line, Marcus Mariota has thrown multiple touchdown passes during the last four weeks. The Titans have scored 26 or more points in each of their last four games. Consequently, San Diego gives up 26.5 points a game to rank 24th in scoring defense. The Chargers also are 24th in pass defense.
Philip Rivers bravely soldiers on as the Chargers are one of the more banged-up teams in the league with a cluster injury problem at linebacker, down their best cornerback and with multiple receiver injuries. Rivers already has been playing minus his best receiver, Keenan Allen, and dependable third-down back Danny Woodhead. 
Dick LeBeau has helped coach up the Titans defense, which should get cornerback Perrish Cox back this week. The Titans' confidence is high after dismantling the Jaguars. They've also had extra time since that victory came last Thursday. 
This isn't a great spot for the Chargers, who have yet to have their bye. The Chargers lost to Oakland on the road in a division game four weeks ago. Then the Chargers upset Denver at home on national television in another division game. That was followed by an upset overtime road win against the Falcons and then last week the Chargers played another AFC West game losing a tough one to the Broncos in a huge matchup. 

The buy sign is on for Carolina. The Panthers came out of their bye refreshed and invigorated beating the Cardinals. 
I don't see Cam Newton and Co. slipping up against the Rams. Carolina is coming off an eight-sack game. The Panthers' lone major weakness is their secondary particularly cornerback. But Case Keenum doesn't have the talent or weapons to take advantage.
Only two teams score fewer points per game than the Rams, who barely average 17. Todd Gurley has been the most disappointing running back in the NFL averaging 57 yards per game and failing to break the 100-yard rushing barrier in 14 of his last 15 games. 
The Rams' defense has proven vastly overrated forcing just one turnover in their last three games and having only 10 sacks on the season. The Rams also have been dealing with key defensive injuries. It's a plus for the Panthers if the Rams continue to miss cornerback Trumaine Johnson and defensive lineman Michael Brockers. 
Carolina's ground attack is back on track, too, with Jonathan Stewart returning to  the lineup. 

The Chiefs are a conservative, grind-out team not built to cover margins past a touchdown. Now the Chiefs will be without Alex Smith. The Chiefs already are thin at running back and have an overrated defense that doesn't apply much of a pass rush. That problem isn't likely to be corrected until Justin Houston returns to the lineup and he's not ready this week. 
The Jaguars do possess talent - on both sides of the ball. Blake Bortles has regressed this season, but still rates a clear edge over Chiefs back-up quarterback journeyman Nick Foles. The Chiefs are much more vulnerable to turnovers now with the downgrade from efficient game-manager Smith to Foles. 
Jacksonville has had extra prep and rest time for this matchup. The Jaguars are off an embarrassing Thursday night loss to the Titans. The Jaguars fired their offensive coordinator following the loss to the Titans. That could provide a needed spark. 
But mainly this handicap is a fade on the Chiefs, who are overpriced at home - where they are 1-5 ATS in their last six games at Arrowhead - and taking advantage of Kansas City's injuries at the skill positions.  

In Mike Zimmer we trust. The Vikings are coming off two terrible offensive performances. Their vaunted defense didn't cover themselves with glory either in an embarrassing Monday night road loss to the Bears. 
Norv Turner, the team's highly respected offensive coordinator, quit this week, too. The trade-off for all of this is getting the Vikings at home at a decent price against the Lions, a team that made Case Keenum look like a Pro Bowl quarterback three weeks ago when they were home and failed to keep the Texans and Brock Osweiler from scoring 20 points this past Sunday. 
How underrated is Zimmer? Minnesota has covered 19 of its last 24 games. The Vikings are 10-3 ATS as chalk. They have covered the past six times at home, including all three times this season. Minnesota has won five of those games with the only defeat coming, 10-9, in the playoffs last season when Vikings kicker Blair Walsh missed a 27-yard field goal with 22 seconds left. 
The Vikings are back home after two straight road defeats. Detroit's one-dimensional offense is going to have problems against the Vikings, who rank No. 1 in scoring defense and in the top four in fewest yards allowed and pass defense. Opponents average less than 15 points against Minnesota. 
I have little doubt the Vikings defense will do their job especially in their new stadium, which rivals any as far as providing Minnesota with a home field advantage. 
The key for the Vikings in covering this number is how much offense can they produce? Pat Schurmur replaces Turner as offensive coordinator. He actually might be a better fit since he has a history and closeness with Sam Bradford. Jerick McKinnon is expected to play after missing the Bears game. That would give the Vikings a back who can get outside plus a receiving threat out of the backfield to go with inside runner Matt Asiata. 
The Lions also have multiple key defensive injuries, the most important being to cornerback Darius Slay. He's dealing with a hamstring injury and may be held out another week since the Lions have a bye following this game. 

Alabama won't finish the season unbeaten. How's that? Because the Crimson Tide are going to lose here in this toughest of tough road settings. Just in case, taking more than a touchdown with LSU is a tremendous cushion. 
Now I certainly respect Alabama. The handicap is based on LSU rather than negativity toward the Crimson Tide although losing defensive back/return Eddie Jackson for the season is a big blow for them. 
I like the way Ed Orgeron has turned around the Tigers. Talent was never the problem for LSU. Coaching was. Now that Les Miles is gone that talent is bubbling to the surface. The Tigers have outgained their past three opponents by an average of 259 yards a game. 
Even suffering with Miles' coaching, the Tigers could be unbeaten. They lost by two to the Badgers playing in Wisconsin and fell by five at Auburn when a last-second game-winning touchdown pass was nullified because the officials ruled time had run out.
Alabama is not going to hold a talent edge here. The situation greatly favors LSU. The Tigers have had two weeks to rest and prepare because of Hurricane Andrew forcing postponement of their game against Florida and having a bye. The Tigers have a top-notch defensive coordinator in Dave Aranda, who was Wisconsin's defensive coordinator until coming to LSU. As a native of Wisconsin, I can tell you the Badgers hated to lose Aranda. 
Alabama hasn't faced this caliber of defense all season. This is a night game, which makes it even rougher when playing at LSU. The Tigers will be treating this as their national championship game. LSU has arguably the best running back in the country, Leonard Fournette. He's been slowed by an ankle injury. But Fournette rushed for 284 yards on only 16 carries against Mississippi during LSU's last game two weeks ago. He'll be 100 percent here.
Mississippi is the one common opponent these two teams share. LSU defeated the Rebels by 17 points at home outgaining them by 191 yards. Alabama played the Rebels on the road and barely escaped winning, 48-43, aided by an 85-yard punt return touchdown by Jackson. The Crimson Tide were outgained by 35 yards in the contest.   

Virginia Tech quarterback Jerod Evans is playing his finest ball throwing for 665 yards and four touchdowns during the past two weeks. Duke is minus its top cornerback, DeVon Edwards. 
Duke quarterback Daniel Jones is a dual threat. He can keep up with Evans. He's the first Duke freshman to have three 300-yard passing games. 

This total is set too high especially given Seth Russell's not-for-certain status and TCU's quarterback problems. Starting Horned Frogs quarterback Kenny Hill was so bad last week he was pulled. Hill has been picked off 10 times this season. The Horned Frogs' best running back, Kyle Hicks, is dealing with a sore ankle. 
The combination of these two defenses not being that bad and the potential injury/reduction in effectiveness from key skill position players makes the under an attractive way to go here. 

Stanford's offense is picking up and the Cardinal is going against a weak Oregon State defense that ranks 103rd in scoring defense giving up 32.6 points a game. 

Oregon State showed its capable of moving the ball, especially on the ground, in a 35-31 loss to Washington State. The Beavers rank 44th in the nation in rushing averaging nearly 200 yards per game on the ground. 

Wisconsin always has trouble playing at Northwestern. The Badgers last won there in 1999. The Wildcats also beat the Badgers in Madison last year, winning 13-7.
The key to that Northwestern victory was bottling up Wisconsin's ground game. The Badgers  averaged just 1.9 yards per rush on 17 attempts. If Wisconsin can't run effectively, it can't beat a decent Big Ten team because of bad quarterbacking. The Wildcats are tough against the run again this season ranking 38th. 
Wisconsin thrives on being physical in the trenches. But the Wildcats are big and physical, too, on the defensive line. 
The Wildcats hold a skill position edge with quarterback Clayton Thorson, running back Justin Jackson, the No. 2 rusher in the Big Ten, and Austin Carr, who leads the Big Ten in receptions, receiving yards and touchdown catches. 
This is a dangerous spot, too, for Wisconsin. The Badgers have played five straight tough conference games: They upset Michigan State on the road, fell to Michigan, lost to Ohio State in overtime, beat Iowa in a hard-fought 17-9 game and last Saturday defeated Nebraska in overtime giving the Badgers two overtime games in the last three weeks. 

Northwestern has been playing well. The Wildcats had won three in a row and gave Ohio State a tough battle losing 24-20 on the road last week. 

Atlanta has a very good offense. The Falcons are a little improved defensively, but still very bad. The result is a great combination to go over the total. That's what the Falcons have done in seven of their eight games. No other team has a better over mark than Atlanta's 7-1.
The only time the Falcons went under is when they defeated Denver - an outstanding defensive team with a bad quarterback - 23-16. If you discount that matchup, the combined total of the Falcons' other seven games this season is 64.8 points per game. 
Matt Ryan has been an above average quarterback for nine years. This just may be his finest season. Ryan is leading the NFL in touchdown passes with 19 and in passing yards. Julio Jones is now considered by many, including myself, to be the best wide receiver in football. 
The Falcons have other weapons, though. Ryan has thrown a touchdown pass to 10 different players. Devonta Freeman is one of the best all-purpose backs in the NFL. 
Tampa Bay's defense ranks 25th in points allowed at 27 per game. The Buccaneers give up the seventh-most yards per game, too. Opponents have scored 27 or more points on the Buccaneers in four of the past six games.
The timing of this matchup being on Thursday is brutal for the Buccaneers' defense, which was on the field for nearly 45 minutes this past Sunday in an overtime loss to the Raiders. Tampa Bay's starting cornerbacks were on the field for 93 plays. The Bucs surrendered a staggering 626 yards to Oakland, 7.4 yards per snap. The Falcons' offense is better than the Raiders and Atlanta won't commit a record number of penalties either like the Raiders did. The Buccaneers' defense is going to be gassed early with such a short turnaround. 
Atlanta may come close to covering this total by itself. The key is the Buccaneers doing their part by putting up a fair share of points. I see that happening. Yes, the Buccaneers are down their first three running backs and No. 2 wideout Vincent Jackson is out. 
But they still have Jameis Winston and Mike Evans, one of the best wide receivers in the league. The Buccaneers put up 34 points when they beat Atlanta, 31-24, opening week. Winston had a huge game with four touchdown passes while going 23-for-33 for 281 yards. Jacquizz Rodgers had been the Bucs' main runner following injuries to Doug Martin and Charles Sims. Rodgers was putting up solid numbers, but he's not that good. His numbers were there because of high volume. Antone Smith is next man up for the Buccaneers. I've always liked him. He's fast and a dangerous pass catcher out of the backfield. I think he's better than Rodgers. 
The bar isn't set high for Tampa Bay to score a lot. Atlanta ranks 29th in scoring defense yielding 28.9 points per game. The Falcons give up the sixth-most passing yards.
There's a chance of light rain, but little wind. So bad weather shouldn't factor.  

Western Michigan has a lot going. The Broncos are unbeaten, ranked in the top-25 and in line to play in a major bowl game.
So it's easy to see why this line is over inflated. Ball State is at home and dangerous. The Cardinals rank 44th in yards per game. They have three good running backs - all healthy and available for the first time in four weeks - headed by James Gilbert. He leads the MAC in rushing touchdowns with 11 and has rushed for 100 yards in each of the last four games. Ball State has scored at least 20 points in every game. 
This is Ball State's biggest game. It's a huge revenge spot. The Cardinals were embarrassed by Western Michigan last year losing 54-7 on the road. They only lost by four points when they last hosted the Broncos two years ago. 
The Cardinals are 3-0 ATS when getting points this season. They haven't lost by more than 10 points all season. The Cardinals are improved on both sides of the ball and are the least penalized team in the MAC. They are a running team that can play ball control to keep Western Michigan's potent offense off the field while not making mistakes. 

The Vikings are vastly superior to the Bears, a true Super Bowl contender. Chicago is one of the five worst teams in the NFL. 
This is a Monday night home game for the Bears. But they are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games. People in Illinois are excited about the Cubs in the World Series not the Bears. The Vikings are going to have their share of fans for this game so the Bears have a limited home field advantage.
Minnesota is a point spread machine under Mike Zimmer covering 19 of the last 23 times. The Vikings are off an upset loss to the Eagles. Minnesota didn't play well in that game perhaps because it came following its bye week. Look for Zimmer to have the Vikings fully ready and motivated for this matchup. 
The Vikings entered this week ranked No. 1 defensively in fewest yards and points allowed. The Bears have Jay Cutler back at quarterback. That's not necessarily a plus for them. Cutler is a lame duck who the Bears don't want to keep after this season. Cutler's teammates rarely respond well  to him. 
Chicago gives an effort defensively. The Bears just have too many injuries, though, and not enough talent. They rank among the bottom 12 in points surrendered. 
This is a mismatch not fully reflected in the point spread. 

This is too many points for the Cowboys to lay in this fierce division rivalry.
The Cowboys are 3-12 ATS the past 15 times they've been a home favorite. The Eagles have defeated Dallas in five of the last six meetings, including the past three times on the road.
Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott both have exceeded expectations. The Cowboys have the better skill position players, but I like the Eagles defense better. 
The Cowboys lack a pass rush. They have just nine sacks. The Eagles' defense has been much better than perceived ranking third in fewest points and fifth in yards allowed. 
Dallas had a bye last week. That could work against the Cowboys as they had plenty of momentum before then. Too many times a team goes into their bye on a roll, hears how great they are and than is flat the following week. It happened to the Eagles and it just happened to the Vikings this past Sunday. 

Aside from Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton, the Colts hold no edges against Kansas City. The Chiefs should dominate both lines of scrimmage. They have the superior defense and running game. 
Alex Smith isn't fancy. But he gets the job done. He's facing a very weak defense. The Colts give up nearly 29 points a game and 400 yards. They rank 28th in points allowed and yards surrendered. 
The Colts haven't been able to protect Luck very well. He's been sacked an NFL-high 25 times. The Chiefs' overall team efficiency trumps Luck's one-man brilliance. 

Let me get this off my chest right away. I deplore Bill O'Brien's play not-to-lose approach. I understand it, though, because he has a stiff for a quarterback in Brock Osweiler. 
There may be only two worst starting quarterbacks than Osweiler and that's Colin Kaepernick and Case Keenum. Kaepernick at least brings a dangerous run dimension to his game. The Lions haven't faced Kaepernick, but they went against Keenum two games ago at home and made the journeyman look like Joe Montana. Keenum was 27 of 32 for 321 yards with three touchdown passes and one interception against Detroit. 
This is a big game for the Texans following their embarrassing Monday night loss to the Broncos. The Texans are not in the class of the Broncos and Patriots. But because of their defense, they are a step above the Lions. 
The Lions are a dome team traveling for the first time in four weeks. They are going to play in an outdoor grass stadium. They are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 grass games. 
Matthew Stafford is playing well. Marvin Jones is showing he can be a No. 1 wide receiver. But the Lions' defense can't compare to the Texans especially with the key injuries they have. The Lions have been out without their top run stuffer, Haloti Ngata, their best linebacker, DeAndre Levy, and last week their top defensive back,Darius Slay, suffered a hamstring injury. 
I don't trust the Texans to cover a margin. But I do trust them to win this home game. So I'm going to lay extra juice and back the Texans on the money line. 

The Jets couldn't survive a brutal first half schedule that included four road games in seven weeks and matchups against the Bengals, Bills, Chiefs, Seahawks, Steelers, Cardinals and Ravens. 
But New York still is a much better team than Cleveland. The Browns rank in the bottom three defensively in points given up, yards allowed and rushing yards. The Browns just allowed 559 yards and 9.2 yards per play to the Bengals, who had averaged 17.2 points during their previous five games. 
The Jets - unlike the Browns - do have some strong areas. They have an excellent defensive line and above average skill position talent with Brandon Marshall and all-purpose running back Matt Forte. Ryan Fitzpatrick is back at quarterback. Like him or not, he's still better than the now-injured Geno Smith. Fitzpatrick won't look so bad against such a terrible defense. The Browns have surrendered the most touchdowns passes in the NFL with 18. 
Cleveland has limited firepower on offense. Josh McCown is back at quarterback. He's a journeyman like Fitzpatrick except his skill position players aren't as good, his offensive line has key injuries and he's facing a stronger defense. Cleveland fans are loyal. But right now they're involved with the Indians and Cavaliers. So having home field isn't nearly enough to negate the Jets' big-time edges. 

It's rare to get Bill Belichick and his Patriots in a same season revenge game. But that's the case here as the Bills shut out the Patriots, 16-0, in Week 4. New England was forced to play third-string rookie quarterback Jacoby Brissett in that game. 
Now Tom Brady is back. The Patriots are going to be extremely fired-up for this game. They had never been shut out at home in the 15-year history of Gillette Stadium before that first Buffalo game. 
Brady has numerous offensive weapons. LeGarrette Blount is having a big year, too, providing the Patriots with a needed power back. 
The situation is quite different than it was four weeks ago when Brady still was under suspension and the Bills had a healthy LeSean McCoy. Not only is McCoy hobbled by a hamstring injury, but the Bills also are without their best receiver, Sammy Watkins. Tyrod Taylor is an excellent running quarterback, but he's not a strong downfield passer. Belichick will be able to defend Buffalo's one dimensional attack. Taylor needs weapons to succeed. He doesn't have them. 
The Bills' 4-3 record is deceiving. Besides taking advantage of New England's dire quarterback problems, they also beat the Rams and 49ers. Miami exposed Buffalo this past Sunday outgaining the Bills by 187 yards and holding a 14-minute time possession edge. 
The Bills don't figure to hang around based on turnovers either as New England quarterbacks haven't thrown an interception all season.
Before losing to the Bills, the Patriots had defeated Buffalo 30 of the past 32 times. The Patriots have rolled past the Bills by a touchdown or more in 21 of their last 27 victories. New England has a bye the following week. The Patriots are 4-0 SU and ATS the past four times before a bye. They will be holding nothing back. This is a kill spot for the Patriots with the talent and situation stacked in their favor. 

Mike Leach has made Washington State a high-scoring team, one of the top 15 in the nation averaging more than 40 points a game. Luke Falk is an upper tier quarterback and the Cougars have improved their ground attack. Washington State has its highest yard per carry rushing at 3.87 since Leach took over in 2012. 
Oregon State ranks 96th in scoring defense allowing an average of 30.3 points per game. Flak is completing nearly 73 percent of his throws. 

The Beavers do have a decent secondary, but they can't sell out to stop Falk because Washington State's ground attack has come on so much. 
The Beavers rush for 200 yards per game. So they can set up the pass with play-action. 
Last year, the teams combined for 83 points in Washington State's 53-31 victory. That was the Cougars' highest-rated passing game of the season. 

I'll take the home team with the superior defense catching an opponent in a prime letdown spot.

That summarizes this game for me. 
Tulane ranks 34th in total defense. The Green Wave give up five fewer points per game than SMU, which allows 31.3 points a game and ranks 97th in total defense. 
None of Tulane's six opponents this season were able to score more than 24 points during regulation. 
SMU is in its second year of rebuilding under Chad Morris, who inherited a one-win team from June Jones two years ago. The Mustangs are a year or two away from becoming respectable. They had lost three in a row until shocking Houston last week winning straight-up as a 23 1/2-point 'dog. 
That was the Mustangs' biggest victory since the days of the Twin Ponies of Eric Dickerson and Craig James back in 1982. I don't think the Mustangs will be able to handle that unexpected success going on the road right after that win. Tulane has a history of taking care of business against bad teams covering nine of the past 12 times versus sub .500 foes. 

Wake Forest has defeated Army nine straight times. The Demon Deacons were idle last week giving them a needed break and extra prep time to work on stopping Army's one-dimensional option offense. 
You must be able to stop the run to beat Army. Wake Forest can do that giving up less than 120 yards per game on the ground and 3.4 rushing yards per carry. 
The Deacons know that a victory makes them bowl eligible for the first time since 2011. So they should have plenty of motivation. 
Army has fallen back to Earth after opening 3-0, including an upset victory over Temple. The Black Knights are 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four games. They have a much bigger game for them next week when they host rival Air Force for the Commander-in-Chief Trophy.
Both teams played Duke this season. Army lost 13-6 to the Blue Devils three weeks ago, while Wake Forest defeated Duke, 24-14, on the road in Week 2. 

This truly has been the season in hell for Michigan State and Mark Dantonio. It's the first time in 25 years the Spartans have dropped five games in a row.
Before the season began, oddsmakers lined this game as Michigan minus four. Now look at the spread! Sure Jim Harbaugh has resurrected Michigan and Michigan State may be the most disappointing team in the nation along with Notre Dame. 
But the Spartans still have great athletes and Dantonio hasn't all of a sudden become a lousy coach. If there is one time for the rest of this season that Michigan State gets up for a game this will be that time.
The Spartans have beaten the Wolverines seven of nine times under Dantonio, including the past five. Michigan is 0-8 ATS the past eight times these two teams have met.
Michigan State usually is at its best in a 'dog role. Since the middle of the 2011 season, the Spartans are 12-2-1 ATS when catching points. 
Michigan has played only one road game - and that was against pathetic 2-6 Rutgers. The Wolverines play their home games on FieldTurf. This game is on a grass field. The Wolverines are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games on grass. 

First off, this isn't such a hard total to go over in today's NFL passing world with the rules skewed in the offense's favor. 
Still, the handicap to both team's offenses has to work - and it does.
Let's begin with the Seahawks. They are going against an Arizona defense that is down compared to last season. The Seahawks have a history of piling up points in Glendale averaging 35 points during their last three visits. Russell Wilson has been fantastic against Arizona's defense during these three road games completing 57 of 88 passes for 771 yards with an 8-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Cardinals have problems with mobile quarterbacks and no quarterback is more mobile than Wilson. 
Wilson is back healthy and dangerous as ever. Seattle's offensive line has improved, Jimmy Graham is healthy and contributing and Christine Michael has come through as an effective running back. The Seahawks have a balanced offense and Wilson is an elite quarterback. Seattle is going to get its share of points here. 
Now for the Cardinals. On paper, this looks like a tough matchup for Arizona's offense. Seattle ranks first in fewest yards given up and has held foes to less than 16 points per game. However, the Seahawks have gone against only one good offense. That was at home versus the Falcons. The other teams the Seahawks have played were the Dolphins, Rams, 49ers and Jets. 
So far Carson Palmer isn't having the great year he had last season. But Palmer still is much better than those first four quarterbacks Seattle drew - Ryan Tannehill, Case Keenum, Blaine Gabbert and Ryan Fitzpatrick. You could make the argument that Keenum, Gabbert and Fitzpatrick were the least effective quarterbacks during the first quarter of the season. Gabbert and Fitzpatrick have since lost their starting jobs. 
Palmer has good receivers. The Cardinals also have a stud running back for the first time in Bruce Arians' four years as coach. David Johnson rates with Ezekial Elliott as the best runner in football. Thanks to Johnson, the Cardinals have rushed for 343 yards in their last two games. 
The Seahawks can't just key on Arizona's passing game. Their first responsibility is likely to focus on Johnson. This task is made more difficult for Seattle because star strong safety Kam Chancellor is expected to miss a second straight game due to a groin injury. He didn't practice all week. 

The Falcons are playing well, but face both a physical and mental letdown returning home from back-to-back road games against the bruising Broncos and Seahawks. 
This game figures to be a shootout between Philip Rivers and Matt Ryan. The Chargers are 2-4, but could be undefeated with better luck. They have outscored their opponents by 18 points. So their record is highly misleading.
The Chargers' confidence is up, though, after they beat the defending Super Bowl champion Broncos. That occurred last Thursday so the Chargers have had ample time to rest and prepare. Rivers can definitely take advantage of a soft Falcons defense that has multiple injuries at linebacker and doesn't rush the passer well.
San Diego has covered 20 of the last 29 times it has been a road 'dog. Mike McCoy has been under fire as Chargers head coach, but his team has covered eight of their past 10 games. 

The Vikings have been the biggest money-makers in the NFL under Mike Zimmer covering an amazing 18 of their last 21 games. 
I like the undefeated Vikings in this spot, too, off a bye and catching the Eagles tumbling back to Earth. The Eagles opened 3-0 beating the Browns opening week and taking advantage of the Bears and Steelers, both of whom were missing key skill position players at the time. 
The Vikings give up just 12.6 points per game, fewest in the NFL, and are No. 2 in total defense. The Eagles surrendered 493 yards to the Redskins last week, including 230 on the ground. Their defense was on the field for more than 34 minutes.The Vikings should get back their best wide receiver, Stefon Diggs, and upgraded their offensive line during the bye signing former Pro Bowl left tackle Jake Long. 
Philadelphia couldn't manage a touchdown on offense against the Redskins' vulnerable defense. The Eagles are now without suspended offensive tackle Lane Johnson. The Vikings have a fierce pass rush. Philadelphia has been playing sloppy committing 37 penalties in their last three games. 

Ohio State gives up less than 13 points per game. Penn State has picked up its ground attack. The Nittany Lions will try to stay on the ground to keep the ball away from Ohio State. That will keep the clock running. The Buckeyes have allowed just one touchdown rushing all season. 
The key is Penn State's holding Ohio State somewhat in check. There are factors why this could happen. The Nittany Lions will be rested, focused and well prepared after being idle last week. They also are expected to get a couple of injured linebackers back. 
Ohio State is in a flat spot on the road for a second consecutive week after an emotional overtime victory against Wisconsin. The under has cashed seven of the last nine times Ohio State has met a Big Ten foe. 
There also is a weather factor. There's a chance of rain and gusting winds. Right now the forecast is calling for wind in the 15 mph range. 

The offenses could come out rusty. Cincinnati, which ranks 11th in the American Athletic Conference in scoring at 23 points a game, had a bye last week. East Carolina was supposed to play last Thursday, but that game was postponed due to Hurricane Matthew.
In an effort to jumpstart their offense, the Bearcats are turning to Gunther Kiel to be their new starting quarterback. Kiel has never lived up to his vast potential. He had been Cincinnati's third-string quarterback. It's a big stretch to think the Bearcats' offense will respond better to him.
East Carolina ranks last in the nation in red zone scoring percentage. Cincinnati ranks in the top five in red zone scoring defense.  
The under has cashed in eight of Cincinnati's last nine October games, while the Pirates have gone under in seven of their last eight conference matchups.

The class difference here should result in Missouri winning by double-digits.The Tigers drop down from SEC opponents needing a victory to keep alive their bowl hopes. The Blue Raiders haven't knocked off an SEC foe in 11 years. That's because SEC teams are stronger, quicker and more athletic.
Middle Tennessee State went against Vanderbilt earlier this season and lost 47-24. That's a telling sign because the Commodores are mediocre. 
Missouri's defense should play much better against this foes and its balanced offense will put up points against a Middle Tennessee State defense that has allowed nearly 1,200 yards and six touchdowns through the air during the last three games. The Blue Raiders could have fatigue issues, too, coming off a double-overtime loss to Western Kentucky.  

West Virginia has been a nice surprise, but I like TCU here. I'm not sold on West Virginia's defense, nor the Mountaineers' ability to control the trenches. The Horned Frogs have 21 sacks.  
The line is too high here based somewhat on the Mountaineers' 48-17 road victory against Texas Tech last week. That was West Virginia's best game of the season. The Mountaineers will be hard-pressed to duplicate that effort. They have failed to cover seven of the last eight times they've gone against an above .500 foe. 
TCU averages 40.2 points per game. The Horned Frogs have a balanced offense and a pair of standout defensive players in linebackers Ty Summers and Travin Howard. 
It's significant that the Horned Frogs were idle last week. Not only are they 12-1 following a bye, but they could have key reinforcements playing in this game.
There is optimism at TCU that the Horned Frogs will have star receiver and kick returner KaVontae Turpin back from a knee injury plus center Austin Schlottmann returning from a foot injury. The Horned Frogs could further be bolstered by having cornerback Julius Lewis and offensive lineman Trey Elliott available for the first time this season. Both have missed the season due to injuries.  

I'm not nominating either team for having the defense of the year. Both team's offenses are much better than their respective defenses. But the setting and total make this a worthy under the total investment. 
This total is through the roof in part because Oregon surrendered 70 points to Washington its last game and Cal has an outstanding quarterback. Davis Webb. Some of the Oregon players called out its defense following that brutal 70-21 loss to the Huskies.
But it's important to note the Ducks had a bye last week. They also had a player's only meeting this week. The Ducks have dropped four in a row. They are fresh following their bye, though, and should be extremely motivated after the Washington debacle. Webb hurt his hand during his last start, although he's expected to start. His top receiver, Chad Hansen, is dealing with an ankle injury. 
Everything needs to line up perfect for an over to happen on a total this high. It's a tremendous plus for the under if Webb and Hansen are less than 100 percent. 
The Golden Bears have a decent pass defense, ranking in the top 50. Oregon freshman quarterback Justin Herbert is set to make just his second start. The Ducks figure to do plenty of running, which eats clock. Cal shouldn't be taken by surprise by this also having had an extra week to rest, prepare and get fresh again since it also had a bye last week. 
Oregon kept Jared Goff, the No. 1 overall draft pick, in check during last year's meeting beating the Golden Bears, 44-28. That total was lined at 75 1/2 so the combined 72 points went under marking the seventh time in the last nine meeting these two teams have gone beneath the total. 

This line is off. These teams aren't even, which the oddsmaker is insinuating opening the game Houston minus 3 with home-field usually worth a field goal. 
The Texans have a strong defense. They rank fifth in fewest yards allowed and are No. 1 in pass defense. 
The Colts have a defense for the ages - the dark ages. It's one of their worst ever, which is saying a lot. Indy just allowed the Bears and backup quarterback Brian Hoyer to roll up 522 yards in a six-point home win that was closer than the score may indicate. 
The Texans beat the Bears by nine points opening week and the Bears have regressed since then due to multiple injuries. 
I'm not a fan of Brock Osweiler. But the Texans' offensive line should be much improved with the return of left tackle Duane Brown. Osweiler has a top-five wide receiver in DeAndre Hopkins and a solid running back in Lamar Miller. 
The Colts are giving up 29.6 points a game, fourth-worst in the NFL, and are 30th in yards given up. 
Indy wins games by outscoring opponents in shootouts. The Colts have been fortunate to draw below average defenses in four of their first five games. Their offensive line is inexperienced and can't protect Andrew Luck, who already has been sacked 20 times. The Texans have a strong pass rush even without injured J.J. Watt with emerging stars Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus. 
Look for the Texans to dominate both lines of scrimmage - and the game. 

The elements - both matchup-wise and weather-wise - are there for this total to go under.
Seattle's defense is as dominant as ever giving up the fewest yards per game and third-fewest points per game at 13.5. The Seahawks could have allowed even fewer points per game but their defensive numbers are skewed a bit because of giving up a fluke touchdown on an offensive fumble returned for a touchdown and letting up against the 49ers after building a huge lead. 
The Seahawks have had ample time to game plan for Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Co. having been idle this past week. 
The Falcons are in a flat spot having just upset the Broncos in Denver. Their offense is built for carpet inside a dome. This game is on grass in the loudest outdoor venue in the NFL. 
Atlanta is improved defensively. Falcons coach Dan Quinn knows the Seahawks having been the team's defensive coordinator before being named Falcons head coach. The Falcons do have a cluster injury problem at linebacker, but there's a very good chance star rookie linebacker and the team's second-leading tackler, Deion Jones, plays after missing last week with an ankle injury.
Bad weather is expected for this game with wind and rain.  

I like the Chiefs a lot here for three main reasons: They are the superior team. The situation. And the line value with the Raiders opening the favorite. 
Oakland is much improved. Granted. But the Chiefs have won five of the past six meetings. They have the better defense and superior ground attack. Derek Carr is an emerging star. Alex Smith wins, though. The Chiefs are 13-3 in their last 16 games with Smith behind center. 
The Raiders are facing a triple whammy here. They are fat and happy riding a three-game winning streak, including holding off San Diego this past Sunday for a big AFC West Division victory. 
The Chiefs are off their worst loss since Andy Reid took over - an embarrassing 43-14 nationally televised Sunday night loss to the Steelers. That was two weeks ago. The Chiefs were idle last week. So they will have had two weeks to stew about that defeat. 
No coach is better off a bye than Reid. His Eagles and Chiefs teams are 15-2 after being idle the week before. That's 88 percent for a 17-game sampling. 
Oakland has failed to cover in eight of its last 10 home contests. The Raiders are 7-23 ATS the past 30 times laying points, including failing to cover the past five times they've been home chalk. 
The Raiders may not have their best running back, Latavius Murray, again. The Chiefs' star running back, Jamaal Charles, should be ready now for full-time duty. Smith has weapons with Charles, Travis Kelce and Jeremy Maclin. The Raiders give up the most total yards and passing yards in the NFL. They also rank 27th in run defense. 

The Steelers are on full throttle since Le'Veon Bell returned from suspension scoring 84 points and piling up 869 yards during their last two games. Ben Roethlisberger is on fire during this span completing 76 percent of his passes with nine touchdown throws and no interceptions.
The Dolphins' porous defense, which is especially weak in the back seven, isn't going to be able to slow down the Steelers. Strong safety Reshad Jones easily is the Dolphins' best player in the secondary. He's dealing with a groin injury, though, and may not play. 
A key is if the Dolphins can hold up their end and produce their share of points. Look for Miami's offense to come around this week. The Steelers' defense isn't that good and the Dolphins - for the first time all season - are healthy in the offensive line. Their two best offensive linemen - center Mike Pouncey and left tackle Branden Albert - are both expected to play. Miami also could get back its best running back, Arian Foster.
Ryan Tannehill will be far more productive with better offensive line support, which I see happening here.