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Football Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
10-12-21	Appalachian State -4 v. UL-Lafayette		13-41	Loss	-110	8 h 49 m	Show
Now that I don't have to lay more than four points, I'm going to get involved with Appalachian State. The Mountaineers are the more well-rounded team and have more quality victories. They've defeated Marshall and own a blowout victory against Georgia State. Lafayette defeated South Alabama by two points and didn't look impressive in beating Nicholls State and Georgia Southern. Appalachian State has topped 500 yards in each of its last three games. The Ragin' Cajuns are 1-4 ATS with their lone cover occurring versus Ohio. Their offense is down from last season. They also have kicking problems. Their regular kicker is out for the year and their backup, Nate Snyder, missed two field goals and an extra point in their last game. The Mountaineers have revenge motivation, too, after losing, 24-21, last year. Prior to that game, the Mountaineers were 8-0 versus Lafayette.
10-11-21	Colts v. Ravens -7	Top	25-31	Loss	-110	23 h 32 m	Show
The Colts can't come close to matching the dynamic Lamar Jackson. The Colts' strength has been their play in the trenches. But lacking a dominant pass rusher and suffering multiple injuries in the offensive line leave the Colts mediocre as their 1-3 accurately reflects. Jackson is an improved passer, making him even more lethal. He gives the Ravens a monster QB edge against Carson Wentz, who has been turnover-prone and dealing with injuries to both of his ankles. Jackson was 22-for-37 passing for 316 yards on the road last week against a very good Denver defense. The Colts' defense isn't as good ad Denver's and the Ravens are home. It's the Colts' third straight road game. The Ravens rank No. 2 in special teams, according to Football Outsiders, and their defense is getting healthier. They should be able to bottle up the Colts' ground attack and apply pressure to Wentz because Indy is without its best offensive lineman, stud guard Quenton Nelson, and also could be missing center Ryan Kelly because of a groin injury and tackle Braden Smith because of foot and thumb injuries. All of my checkmarks go to the Ravens. So I'm confident in laying a touchdown with them at home against this opponent.
10-10-21	Bills +3 v. Chiefs	Top	38-20	Win	100	75 h 19 m	Show
Perhaps down the road, the Chiefs will become the best team in the NFL again. Right now Kansas City can't make that distinction given how bad its defense is. But the Bills can. They are looking great on both sides of the ball. I regard the Bills as the best team in the NF. So I'll gladly accept any points coming to them in this rematch of the AFC title game. The Chiefs were better than the Bills back then. They aren't now. The Bills give up the fewest points, yards and passing yards in the NFL. Their offense can trade points against any opponent. The Chiefs are potent as ever on offense, although Patrick Mahomes already has five interceptions. Buffalo leads the NFL in takeways with 10. Kansas City rates second-to-last in points and yards allowed. The Chiefs have given up 29 or more points in every game. They rank last in yards per play allowing 6.87. The Bills are first in that category holding foes to 4.0 yards per play. Buffalo has covered 12 of its last 15 games. The Chiefs are just the opposite going 3-12 ATS. Kansas City also is 1-7 ATS in its past eight home games.
10-10-21	49ers +5.5 v. Cardinals	Top	10-17	Loss	-110	72 h 48 m	Show
Whether it's Jimmy Garoppolo or Trey Lance behind center, I want the 49ers going for me here. San Francisco is 10-4 ATS the past 14 times as an underdog and catch the Cardinals, the lone unbeaten team in the NFL, fat and happy after they ended an eight-game losing streak to the Rams with their impressive, 37-20, victory last Sunday. San Francisco is 2-2, but aren't that far from being 4-0. They nearly pulled off a comeback against the Packers and they outgained the Seahawks by 223 yards in their one-score loss to Seattle last week. The 49ers have held their last three foes - Eagles, Packers and Seahawks - to an average of 305 yards. Kyler Murray is the early frontrunner for MVP. The Cardinals have played three weak defenses, though, in the Titans, Vikings and Jaguars. Kliff Kingsbury has been terrible in this role as the Cardinals are 1-8 ATS as a home favorite during the Kingsbury era.
10-10-21	Browns v. Chargers OVER 46.5		42-47	Win	100	90 h 36 m	Show
The Browns' strength is running the ball with their great 1-2 punch of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Cleveland ranks first in rushing averaging 177 yards on the ground. The Chargers rank 29th in run defense and lost inside linebacker Kenneth Murray and defensive tackle Justin Jones to injuries further eroding their rush defense. The Chargers' strength is passing. Justin Herbert can hurt a Cleveland secondary. Herbert is hot with a 7-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last two games. The Browns' defense is improved, but they've been fortunate to go against weak offensive lines in their last three games facing the Texans, Bears and Vikings. This is a clear-cut case of strength versus strength and the total is low enough to get involved.
10-10-21	Lions v. Vikings UNDER 49.5		17-19	Win	100	68 h 11 m	Show
The Under has cashed seven the last eight times in this series. I expect that trend to continue here given this NFC North Division rivalry and the Lions' offensive woes. The Lions are averaging 16 points during their last three games. They are going to be without perhaps their two best offensive linemen with left tackle Taylor Decker and center Frank Ragnow out with injuries. A third offensive line starter, Penei Sewell, isn't likely to play either for Detroit because of an ankle injury. Sparked by a rejuvenated Danielle Hunter, the Vikings are averaging 3.2 sacks per game. The Lions have discovered first-hand what Sean McVay knew that Jared Goff is merely a game manager. The Vikings' secondary can handle Goff and a Detroit wide receiving corps that is the worst in the league. Detroit doesn't have a good defense. But the Lions play hard for Dan Campbell - at least so far. The Vikings' offense becomes more ground-and-pound when Dalvin Cook isn't fully in the lineup, which he hasn't been for the past two games. He's been slowed by an ankle injury.
10-10-21	Titans v. Jaguars +4.5		37-19	Loss	-110	68 h 7 m	Show
This is the Jaguars' biggest game of the season. Something Urban Meyer is well aware of. Indications are the Jaguars have had a good week of practice despite the distractions of Meyer. Trevor Lawrence is getting better at protecting the ball. He faces a very weak defense here. Zach Wilson enjoyed success against the Titans last Sunday. So should Lawrence. Tennessee gives up 27.8 points a game. That's just one fewer point per game than the Jaguars allow. Jacksonville is capable. They led both the Cardinals and Bengals by nine and 14 points before losing. Given their injury situation, the Titans should not be laying more than a field goal on the road. Maybe the Titans get back A.J. Brown, but they are likely to still be without Julio Jones and underrated punter Brett Kern. Tennessee also is banged-up in its offensive line. The Titans have yielded 17 sacks, most in the NFL entering this week.
10-09-21	New Mexico State v. Nevada OVER 62.5	Top	28-55	Win	100	30 h 59 m	Show
Nevada averages more than 32 points a game and has one of the best QB's in the country, Carson Strong. New Mexico State is one of the worst defensive teams in the nation ranking 115th in scoring defense giving up 34.2 points and 113th in yards allowed at 449.8. It's safe to expect Nevada to put up at least 40 points on the Aggies. The key here is getting enough scoring from New Mexico State. I see that happening. The Aggies are a passing team, averaging 43 throws per game. It's a short passing attack, but they are not run-oriented at all. The Aggies have averaged 30 points per game in their last four matchups facing San Jose State, Hawaii, South Carolina State and New Mexico. The weather should be fine with no rain and little wind.
10-09-21	LSU +3 v. Kentucky		21-42	Loss	-105	33 h 27 m	Show
Great job by Kentucky upsetting Florida last week. Mark Stoops has made the Wildcats respectable. But I don't see Kentucky taking out LSU, too, just a week later and coming right after the glow of its Florida victory. I understand the Tigers are way down from their national championship team of two seasons ago. We're still talking LSU, though, with its great athletes, talent and speed. LSU QB Max Johnson has the ability and arm to dent a Kentucky secondary that hasn't really been tested fully yet. The Wildcats don't have much of a pass rush either. I prefer Kentucky when in a 'dog role. Before upsetting Florida, the Wildcats had defeated South Carolina by six points and Tennessee Chattanooga by only five points as a 33-point home favorite.
10-09-21	Notre Dame v. Virginia Tech		32-29	Loss	-110	25 h 59 m	Show
Cincinnati exposed Notre Dame last week for what the Irish really are, a team whose luck ran out when they met a really good defense. Notre Dame meets another outstanding defense here in Virginia Tech. The Hokies give up the 10th-fewest points per game in the country. They held Sam Howell and North Carolina to 10 points. The Tar Heels are averaging 44.5 points in their other four games. The Irish can't dent a really strong defense because they lack a star quarterback, have a mediocre-at-best offensive line and no star wide receivers. Their best pass catcher is tight end is Michael Mayer and he's banged-up dealing with a groin injury. Virginia Tech also has the advantage of having had two weeks to rest and prepare. The Hokies were idle last week.
10-09-21	Florida State v. North Carolina OVER 63.5		35-25	Loss	-110	66 h 53 m	Show
North Carolina is averaging 37.6 points and has a top-20 offense spearheaded by one of the best QB's in college football, Sam Howell. But what's scary about the Tar Heels is they still have room to improve offensively. That could come against Florida State, which gives up 31.4 points and ranks 103rd in pass defense. Howell is on a streak of four straight 300 passing yards games. The Tar Heels are big favorites here, but I expect Florida State to contribute its share of points. North Carolina has a below average defense. Seminoles QB Jordan Travis holds the school record for most career rushing yards. The Tar Heels rank 72nd in rush defense. Their defense has come up with only three takeaways.
10-09-21	Georgia v. Auburn UNDER 47		34-10	Win	100	22 h 15 m	Show
Good luck to Bo Nix and Auburn's offense. They will need it here. Georgia is the No. 1 defensive team in the nation. The Bulldogs rank first in scoring defense giving up an insanely-low 4.6 points a game and are No. 1 in total yards and pass defense. Auburn has some good running backs. But the Bulldogs have the fourth-best run defense, too. Georgia is a running team. The Bulldogs probably are going to run even more than their 62 percent because their star QB, JT Daniels, isn't likely to play due to a back injury. The Bulldogs also play at a very slow tempo. Auburn ranks 15th in run defense giving up 90 yards on the ground and just 2.5 yards per carry.
10-08-21	Temple +30 v. Cincinnati	Top	3-52	Loss	-110	19 h 39 m	Show
Cincinnati is coming off one of its biggest wins ever, a road victory last week against then No. 9 ranked Notre Dame. No doubt the Bearcats are good, darn good. But the linesmaker isn't giving Temple enough respect here. Like other schools, Temple had its 2020 season disrupted by COVID-19. They weren't even able to scrimmage until October. So the Owls' 1-6 2020 season is not indicative of who they are. Temple has been well-coached and enjoyed good success during the previous five years before 2020. Things are back to normal for Temple. The Owls have a winning record. They showed their potential, upsetting Memphis, 34-31, as 11-point home 'dogs last week. Cincinnati has the far superior defense, but the Owls don't lack firepower. Wide receiver Jaden Blue is a pro prospect. QB D'Wan Mathis is off his finest performance completing 35 passes to a dozen different receivers against Memphis for 322 yards and three TD's. The two teams did not meet last year. But in three meetings from 2017-2019, Temple beat Cincinnati twice and lost, 15-13, in 2019 when the Bearcats returned a 99-yard defensive conversion in the fourth quarter. The Owls have covered 68 percent of the time they've been a road 'dog the last 31 times. It's asking too much of Cincinnati to cover this large of a number against an underrated foe following one of their all-time best victories.
10-07-21	Rams v. Seahawks UNDER 54.5	Top	26-17	Win	100	26 h 2 m	Show
Even in today's NFL where the rules are greatly skewed toward offense, a lot has to go right for this many points to be scored. I don't see the Rams-Seahawks combining for this many points on a short week where game-planning is condensed. The Rams' defense appears down from last season. That's not a surprise. After all, they ranked No. 1 defensively last year and their star defensive coordinator, Brandon Stanley, is now the Chargers' head coach. Raheem Morris is LA's third defensive coordinator in three years. He's a downgrade from Stanley. Having said that, though, the Rams still had held their last 17 regular season opponents under 30 points until losing, 37-20, to the explosive Cardinals this past Sunday. The Rams have Aaron Donald and cornerback Jalen Ramsey, arguably the best players at their respective positions. The Seahawks' mediocre offensive line has had a great degree of difficulty dealing with Donald. The teams met three times last season. The Rams held the Seahawks to an average of 15 points and 301 yards. Russell Wilson is putting together another fantastic season. Seattle, however, ranks 29th in third down yardage. Wilson has the second-highest sack rate on third down, too, behind only the Texans' overmatched rookie QB Davis Mills. So the Seahawks will have to do much of their damage on their first two downs. The Rams were held to a season-low 20 points against Arizona. LA's final TD came in garbage time, too. Darrell Henderson looked good after missing the previous week with a rib injury. Sean McVay realizes he may have abandoned his ground attack too early against the Cardinals. So the Rams could be running more than usual plus McVay wants to keep the ball out of Wilson's hands. That's a plus for the Under.
10-04-21	Raiders v. Chargers -3	Top	14-28	Win	100	20 h 15 m	Show
The oddsmaker considers these teams even if you factor three points for home field advantage. The Chargers have a weaker home-field edge than most teams. Still, even given that, I believe the Chargers are superior to Las Vegas. Credit to Derek Carr and to Las Vegas for opening 3-0. That hasn't occurred for the Raiders in 19 years. But in studying this matchup, I give the key checkmarks to the Chargers. I like Justin Herbert better than Carr. The Chargers have the best all-purpose running back on the field in Austin Ekeler. LA also rates a strong wide receiving edge with Keenan Allen and a rejuvenated Mike Williams. Those two have been one of the best wide receiving duos in the NFL this season. LA also has a much improved offensive line, while the Raiders' offensive line still is in transition. Defensively, the Raiders are middle-of-the-pack. The Chargers give up four fewer points per game than the Raiders, have the better pass defense and double the number of takeaways Las Vegas has. Joey Bosa is the best pass rusher on the field and Derwin James would be the best player in either secondary if he can suit up, which he expects to do. I have serious doubts about how good the Raiders defense is going to look on the road against Herbert. The Chargers have proven vulnerable on the ground. Las Vegas, however, ranks among the bottom-eight in rushing. LA upset Washington and Kansas City on the road. The Chargers held the potent Cowboys to 20 points. Dallas is averaging 35.3 points in its three other games. The Raiders had a nice upset win at home against the Ravens in overtime opening week. The Raiders then upset the Steelers on the road. That win, though, doesn't look as impressive now considering the Steelers are 1-3 and have been outscored by 26 points. The Raiders then barely escaped the Dolphins and backup QB Jacoby Brissett winning, 31-28 in overtime, at home last week. The Dolphins are 1-3. They have managed just 34 points in their three games not against Las Vegas.
10-03-21	Bucs -6.5 v. Patriots	Top	19-17	Loss	-110	123 h 31 m	Show
Forget all the hype leading up to this matchup, the most anticipated regular season game in years. This is a a one-sided matchup. The Patriots can't come close to matching Tampa Bay's firepower and New England's defense, while good, is not great. The Patriots can defend well against bad offenses and bad QB's. New England can't stop an elite offense and quarterback such as Tom Brady, though. Bill Belichick doesn't have enough chess pieces to stop Brady from effectively using Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski, who has scored as many TD's as the Patriots have produced as a team. Stephon Gilmore, the Patriots' top cornerback, remains out. Game manager rookie QB Mac Jones isn't going to be able to keep up. The Buccaneers have an elite run defense. Jones lacks experience and explosive wideouts. His most dependable all-purpose running back, James White, is sidelined with a hip injury. The Patriots have no ability to play from behind. I'm expecting a Tampa Bay blowout.
10-03-21	Seahawks +3 v. 49ers		28-21	Win	100	68 h 39 m	Show
Seattle swept San Francisco last season and the Seahawks should win this game because of Russell Wilson. He has the arms, legs and intelligence to take advantage of the 49ers' cluster injury situation in their secondary. Wilson is on pace for career highs in many of the major categories. The 49ers have trouble with mobile QB's. Wilson gives the Seahawks a monster QB edge. The 49ers are a running team lacking a lead runner due to injuries. Seattle has dominated this series from a point spread perspective going 13-5-1 ATS during the last 19 meetings. The 49ers also have dropped their last five games at Levi's Stadium.
10-03-21	Titans v. Jets +7		24-27	Win	100	65 h 33 m	Show
After looking decent during preseason, the Jets have looked terrible on offense. Keep in mind, though, New York's schedule. The Jets' first three opponents were the Panthers, Patriots and Broncos. Those are three strong defenses. Now New York steps way down in defensive class. Zach Wilson has the receiving weapons to take advantage of the Titans' weak secondary and lack of a pass rush. The Titans are likely going to be missing their two star wide receivers, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones. Both are dealing with hamstring injuries. The 0-3 Jets are in desperation mode while the Titans are fat and happy coming off a big win against the Colts and with a division game against the Jaguars on deck.
10-03-21	Texans v. Bills -16.5		0-40	Win	100	65 h 32 m	Show
Yes this is the largest point spread of the season. It's still not enough points for the Texans, though. Josh Allen is back in form - as he showed in a 22-point victory against Washington last week - and the Bills' defense is playing at a high level with an experienced secondary and promising young pass rushers. Rookie QB Davis Mills isn't going to be able to dent Buffalo's defense that ranks fourth in fewest points and yards allowed. The Texans are conservative both offensively and defensively in an effort to hide their lack of talent. The Bills are perfectly suited to attack the Texans' zone coverages because Allen likes to throw short to Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders, all of whom are adept in finding soft spots in coverage. Houston was competitive at the start of the season. But that was with Tyrod Taylor behind center and playing easier opponents. The Texans are at least three TD's worse on the road than Buffalo.
10-03-21	Lions v. Bears UNDER 42		14-24	Win	100	65 h 31 m	Show
The Bears defense, particularly Khalil Mack, is back playing at a high level. Chicago's defense should encounter little trouble from a Lions attack that has the worst wide receivers in the NFL and a mediocre QB in Jared Goff. The Lions are 0-3, but have shown tremendous effort under fiery Dan Campbell. If it weren't for a record 66-yard field goal by Justin Tucker, the Lions would have held the Ravens to 16 points. I doubt Andy Dalton is able to play this week. So Justin Fields is in line to make his second NFL start. He's not ready for that role yet as the Browns clearly showed last week holding Chicago to 47 yards on 42 plays. The Bears rank last in yards gained and are second-to-last in scoring.
10-02-21	Old Dominion v. UTEP OVER 48		21-28	Win	100	26 h 25 m	Show
This is a low total for a college game featuring two lower-scale defenses. Old Dominion gives up 32.3 points a game. UTEP yields nearly 25 points per game. The Monarchs can run the ball somewhat effectively. They also play at a fast tempo, which is a huge key. The perception with UTEP is that it can't produce points. That perception doesn't hold true anymore. The Miners actually have a couple of dangerous receiving weapons. Jacob Cowing averages 23.4 yards per catch, while Justin Garrett averages 17.4 7yards a reception. As a team, the Miners rank in the top 50 in yards per play.
10-02-21	Washington v. Oregon State -123	Top	24-27	Win	100	26 h 41 m	Show
Oregon State could be the most improved team in the country while Washington remains overrated by the oddsmaker. This is the best team Jonathan Smith has had in his four years as head coach at Oregon State. His Beavers have gone 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games, including winning and covered each of the last three weeks. The Beavers just upset USC, 45-27, on the road last week. Excluding a 52-3 win against Arkansas State, which gives up the most yards in the country, Washington is averaging 13.6 points in regulation during its three other games. The Huskies have been overrated on defense, too, and are dealing with injuries to starting cornerbacks, Brendan Radley-Hiles and Trent McDuffie. The Huskies won't have Cade Otton, one of the better tight ends in the Pac-12. He's in COVID-19 protocol.
10-02-21	Liberty v. UAB UNDER 50		36-12	Win	100	105 h 13 m	Show
Liberty draws attention because of Malik Willis, one of the best QB's in the country. But the Flames have one of the top defenses in the country, too, ranking 14th in fewest points and eighth in total yards. UAB couldn't step up in class when it played Georgia. The Blazers were blown out in that game. But playing foes at their level, the Blazers are very good. They have given up 27 points in their three other games. Both teams are run-oriented and play at a slow tempo. Liberty has pass protection issues that UAB can take advantage of.
10-02-21	Tulane v. East Carolina OVER 64		29-52	Win	100	91 h 13 m	Show
There are reasons why 11 of East Carolina's last 15 games have gone Over. The Pirates play up-tempo, have a good veteran QB in Holton Ahlers and a terrible defense that ranks 127th in yards allowed. Tulane also is far better on offense than defense. The Green Wave average 36.5 points, but surrender 37.3 points a game. This should be a fast-paced game where offenses totally dominate.
10-02-21	Cincinnati -126 v. Notre Dame		24-13	Win	100	70 h 44 m	Show
Notre Dame a slight home 'dog to an American Conference team. Is this true? It is. The oddsmaker is telling you Cincinnati is better than Notre Dame and I'm reinforcing that. Notre Dame buried Wisconsin last week, but the Irish have struggled this season. They needed overtime to defeat Florida State and they struggled against Toledo and Purdue before pulling those victories out in the fourth quarter. Cincinnati is way above those teams. The Bearcats have had ample rest and preparation time, too, for this matchup having been idle last week. Notre Dame has been inconsistent running the ball and not had good pass protection. The Irish's young offensive line has yet to come together. That should prove fatal in this game. Jack Coan has put together a better-than-expected season for Notre Dame, but he's not a mobile quarterback. Cincinnati QB Desmnond Ridder is. Ridder is the best QB the Irish have faced. He has a good runner in Jerome Ford and several skilled wide receivers.
10-01-21	Iowa -3 v. Maryland	Top	51-14	Win	100	20 h 17 m	Show
Both Iowa and Maryland are 4-0. But there are reasons why Iowa is ranked fifth in the country in the latest AP Top 25 poll, while Maryland is outside of the top 25. The Hawkeyes are far superior defensively. The Hawkeyes are surrendering just 11 points a game, third-best in the nation. Maryland has played a weak schedule. The Terrapins haven't faced a defense anywhere near the caliber of Iowa. Maryland is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 Big Ten games. Iowa has thrived in this role, a proven commodity with a 20-6 ATS mark the past 26 times as a road favorite. The Hawkeyes' last four road victories against Power 5 conference opponents all were by double-digits. Taulia Tagovailoa leads the Big Ten in passing yards and completion percentage. But he's not as good as his brother, Tua. The Hawkeyes lead the Big Ten with six interceptions. I would take their defense over Tagovailoa. Iowa is the better coached team and owns huge edges on both lines of scrimmage.
09-27-21	Eagles +3.5 v. Cowboys	Top	21-41	Loss	-115	20 h 6 m	Show
The Cowboys have marquee skill position talent. They also are 1-7 ATS the past eight times laying points and have much to prove defensively after last season's disaster. The Eagles are a blue-collar team by comparison. They lack the superstar offensive talent Dallas possesses. Philly, however, is tough in the trenches even without injured defensive end Brandon Graham and Pro Bowl guard Brandon Brooks. The Cowboys are without their top pass rusher, DeMarcus Lawrence. Jalen Hurts is the best running quarterback in the NFC. The Eagles have the style of offense that can grind the Cowboys down while playing ball-control. Philadelphia's defense has been outstanding holding the Falcons and 49ers to a combined average of 11.5 points. Early returns on Eagles' first-year head coach Nick Sirianni are positive. This is the Eagles' lone scheduled nationally televised game. I see them producing a strong effort and getting the right result even though they aren't nearly as fancy as Dallas.
09-26-21	Packers +3.5 v. 49ers	Top	30-28	Win	100	129 h 57 m	Show
The Packers got back on track Monday. They led the league in scoring last season and their offense was back in sync after being rusty opening week in a shocking blowout loss to the Saints. The 49ers are heavily run-oriented. However, they have a cluster injury problem at running back. Game manager Jimmy Garoppolo needs a strong running attack to set up his passing rather than the other way around. Aaron Rodgers versus Garoppolo is a monster mismatch. The 49ers have been terrible as home favorites going 5-20-1 ATS in that role.
09-26-21	Dolphins v. Raiders UNDER 44		28-31	Loss	-109	38 h 2 m	Show
The Dolphins just may have the worst offensive line in the NFL. It's a major reason why they rate last in scoring with just 17 points on the season and yards per play. I don't see Miami putting up many points against a Raiders defense that ranks No. 2 in quarterback hits and is going with backup Jacoby Brissett, who is not an accurate passer and holds the ball too long. This will be Brisset's first start in two years. Miami does have a strong defense. The Dolphins have one of the best cornerback tandems in the league and their defensive front ranks eighth in quarterback pressure. The Raiders have been one-dimensional on offense without the running of Josh Jacobs, who isn't likely to play again due to an ankle injury. The Raiders are down two of their starting offensive linemen. Derek Carr is likely to be throwing a lot of short passes. Carr needs to be careful because the Dolphins have produced at least one takeaway in 24 consecutive games, the longest streak in the NFL.
09-26-21	Saints v. Patriots UNDER 42.5		28-13	Win	100	35 h 59 m	Show
Drew Brees versus Tom Brady. Not anymore. Instead we have erratic Jameis Winston against rookie Mac Jones. Neither offensive line is playing well either. Sean Payton is going to take it easy with Winston knowing he's facing defensive guru Bill Belichick and a ball-hawking New England secondary. The Patriots have five takeaways in two games and have held opponents to under 300 yards a game. Belichick is keeping things ultra conservative for Jones, who lacks explosive weapons. The Saints are stout against the run and their secondary is bolstered by the return of their best cornerback, Marshon Lattimore.
09-26-21	Washington Football Team v. Bills -7		21-43	Win	100	34 h 60 m	Show
Taylor Heinicke is a nice story. But Josh Allen is close to superstar status. I see Allen getting right and Buffalo's defense, which looks far more like its dominant self of 2019 than last season, handling Heinicke and a much more limited Washington offense. Washington's defense has yet to live up to expectations. Buffalo has upgraded its pass rush to go with a strong back seven on defense. This is Heinicke's first road start. The Bills have the defensive coaching with Sean McDermott and Leslie Frazier and talent to make it very rough on him, while Allen gets untracked against Washington's mediocre linebackers and average secondary.
09-26-21	Bears v. Browns -7	Top	6-26	Win	100	35 h 39 m	Show
Justin Fields makes his first NFL start. He's an exciting talent, but he's not nearly NFL-ready. Not helping matters for Fields is Chicago's offensive line isn't ready either. The Browns are better defensively than they have shown. I regard Myles Garrett as the AFC's most feared pass rusher along with T.J. Watt. The Browns are the only team in the NFL sporting a top-three grade in both passing and run blocking. That's how good their offensive line is. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt could be the best running tandem in the league. Chubb has scored at least one rushing TD in eight consecutive games. Baker Mayfield is leading the NFL in completion percentage and now gets Odell Beckham Jr. for the first time this season. The Bears yielded Matthew Stafford's highest career passer rating opening week. Beckham is an electrifying presence who is sure to fire up the home crowd. The Bears' plight will be made worse if run-stuffing nose tackle Eddie Goldman still can't make his season debut because of a knee injury.
09-25-21	Tennessee +20 v. Florida		14-38	Loss	-112	27 h 43 m	Show
Florida played an outstanding game last week nearly upsetting Alabama as a two-touchdown 'dog losing, 31-29. That was a physical game and the Gators nearly tied it at 31-31 but couldn't convert on a 2-point run with 3:41 left. Florida had fought back from a 21-3 deficit. I don't know how much the Gators will have left for this matchup. Tennessee looks much more dangerous under Josh Heupel. The Volunteers are off to a 3-0 start while averaging 42.7 points. I'm fine with whoever the Volunteers play at quarterback whether it's Joe Milton or Hendon Hooker. Tennessee is averaging 223 yards rushing a game. I'm not sure the oddsmaker has fully caught up to Tennessee. The combination of that and Florida being in somewhat of a letdown spot following the Alabama game, puts me on the Volunteers taking nearly three touchdowns.
09-25-21	Arkansas State v. Tulsa OVER 62.5		34-41	Win	100	28 h 11 m	Show
Arkansas State gives up the most yards per play of any team in the country. Tulsa is stepping way down in class having played Ohio State and Oklahoma State in its last two games. The Golden Hurricane produced more than 500 yards against Ohio State and had 25 first downs. They are going to put up a lot of points on Arkansas State. But the Red Wolves are going to put up their share of points, too. They are a fast-paced team with two decent QB's and three excellent wide receivers. Arkansas State throws 62 percent of the time. Tulsa's defense is down from last year, no longer having superstar linebacker Zaven Collins.
09-25-21	Rutgers +20.5 v. Michigan		13-20	Win	100	40 h 16 m	Show
In Greg Schiano we trust. Schiano has turned around Rutgers making the Scarlet Knights respectable. Rutgers won three Big Ten games last season and nearly upset Michigan as an 11-point 'dog losing, 48-42, in triple overtime. Michigan is off to a fast start with three blowout victories against inferior competition. But Rutgers also is 3-0 with victories versus Temple, Syracuse and Delaware. Rutgers has forced eight turnovers and come up with 14 sacks. Scarlet Knights QB Noah Vedral isn't doing anything foolish. He's completed 71.6 percent of his throws with four TD passes and no interceptions. The Wolverines have a much bigger game on tap next week when they take on Wisconsin. That's a huge revenge game for Michigan, which lost by 38 points to the Badgers last year. The Scarlet Knights definitely can stay within three TD's of the Wolverines.
09-25-21	Colorado State v. Iowa UNDER 44.5	Top	14-24	Win	100	30 h 27 m	Show
Colorado State has quarterback issues. The Rams rank 107th in scoring at 22 points a game. They are not going to dent Iowa's elite defense, which gives up the fourth-fewest points per game in the country. The Hawkeyes have accomplished this against respectable offenses, too, holding Iowa State to 17 points and Kent State to seven points during their last two games. The Rams also are going to be missing their most dangerous wide receiver, Dante Wright. He isn't expected to play because of a knee injury. Iowa lacks an explosive offense. The Hawkeyes are conservative and slow-paced. They play a grind-out style that keeps the clock moving. So it's not a fluke the Under has won 75 percent during the past 21 times Iowa has been a home favorite going 15-5-1.
09-25-21	Notre Dame +6.5 v. Wisconsin		41-13	Win	100	40 h 41 m	Show
I don't think Jack Coan and Notre Dame are getting enough respect here. Note this matchup is at neutral site Soldier Field in Chicago, not in Madison, Wis. Coan has erased the doubts I had about him entering the season completing nearly 64 percent of his passes for 828 yards and 8 TD's. Kyren Williams gives Notre Dame the best running back. Wisconsin QB Graham Mertz entered the program with a lot of hype. He had a monster game against Illinois in his first start - and then has gone downhill since then. He has yet to throw a TD this season. Penn State held Wisconsin to just 10 points. No way do I see Wisconsin being nearly a TD better than Notre Dame on a neutral field.
09-24-21	Liberty -6.5 v. Syracuse	Top	21-24	Loss	-110	20 h 27 m	Show
Liberty may be the best team you don't know. The Flames have covered their last 10 games and are led by QB Malik Willis, the Lamar Jackson of college football and likely high draft pick. The Flames are 3-0 this season, which isn't surprising since they returned nearly all of their starters from last season's 10-1 team that upset Virginia Tech on the road and defeated Coastal Carolina in a bowl game. Willis is a dynamic superstar, who has the highest passer rating in the country. He's accounted for 11 TD's and hasn't thrown an interception. Syracuse is 2-1 beating Ohio and FCS foe Albany. The Orangemen lost, 17-7, to Rugers, a lower-tier Big Ten team. Syracuse is 5-16 in its last 21 games and has yet to demonstrate much of a passing attack. Liberty is very strong defensively returning nine starters from a top-25 defense of a year ago. I see Liberty covering for the ninth straight time in a favorite's role.
09-23-21	Panthers v. Texans UNDER 44	Top	24-9	Win	100	77 h 30 m	Show
I'm expecting rookie QB Davis Mills to get the start for the Texans. That's certainly not a plus for Houston as Mills isn't nearly ready to start a regular season NFL game. The Panthers have a lot of young defensive talent with Brian Burns, Jeremy Chinn, Shaq Thompson and Haason Reddick. They dominated rookie Zach Wilson in Week 1 and made Jameis Winston look terrible this past Sunday. The Texans are going to go as basic as possible with Mills. This is a very winnable road game for the Panthers. So I don't envision Matt Ruhle doing anything fancy on offense. Sam Darnold is far from trustworthy at this early stage of his Carolina career. A conservative, defensive-minded contest should produce a total far below this total.
09-23-21	Marshall v. Appalachian State OVER 56.5	Top	30-31	Win	100	77 h 32 m	Show
The oddsmaker opened this total too low given the quality of QB's and Marshall's overrated defense. The Thundering Herd averages 43.7 points while playing at one of the fastest paces in the nation. They also rank No. 2 in total yards and No. 3 in passing yards behind Grant Wells. Appalachian State is an above average offensive team. Chase Brice has looked good under center for the Mountaineers and Camerun Peoples is one of the better running backs in Conference USA. The Mountaineers are going against a Marshall defense that isn't as good as people thought after the Thundering Herd surrendered 42 points to East Carolina.
09-20-21	Lions v. Packers OVER 48		17-35	Win	100	140 h 29 m	Show
This total opened short considering how weak the Lions are defensively and how potent the Packers' offense is. One flat performance to start the season by the Packers shouldn't negate that Green Bay led the NFL in scoring last year at 31.8 points. The Packers didn't play Aaron Rodgers and some of their key skill position players during preseason and the rustiness showed on opening week. The Packers have their skill position stars back and their offensive line remains above average. Rodgers should have no problem taking advantage of a Detroit defense full of holes. The Lions can't pressure the quarterback, nor cover very well. They also have slow linebackers. Green Bay should come close to covering this total itself. The Lions should contribute, too, to the total going Over. Green Bay's defense looked terrible opening week under new defensive coordinator Joe Barry. The Lions have a solid offensive line and two good running backs with D'Andre Swift and former Packer Jamaal Williams. T.J. Hockenson is emerging as a tight end force.
09-20-21	Lions v. Packers -10.5	Top	17-35	Win	100	148 h 11 m	Show
The Packers are in a kill spot hosting a Detroit team that is much worse than its final score indicated from Week 1. The 49ers led the Lions, 31-10, at halftime. So the 49ers' 41-33 final is misleading. Make no mistake, the Lions are terrible. Their defense is slow, can't pressure the QB and the secondary just lost cornerback Jeff Okudah for the season. The Packers laid an egg in Week 1. They are eager to show the Monday night national TV audience just how potent they can be. Aaron Rodgers with a chip on his shoulder is a dangerous dude. Green Bay could not have asked for an easier pasty to achieve their atonement.
09-19-21	Chiefs -3.5 v. Ravens		35-36	Loss	-107	31 h 16 m	Show
All summer Andy Reid works on various offensive schemes and innovations. His work and creativity is unleashed during the first month of the season when opponents aren't fully prepared for it. The combination of Reid and superstar QB Patrick Mahomes has resulted in the Chiefs never losing a September game in 11 tries with Mahomes under center. Mahomes has a mind-boggling 35-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio during these games. The Ravens haven't been able to stop the Chiefs losing each of the last three seasons to Kansas City. This time around the Chiefs are much healthier than Baltimore. Mahomes has completed 70.5 percent of his throws in three games against the Ravens for an average of 378.6 yards while accounting for 10 TD's with only one interception. The Ravens are going to have to try to stop Mahomes while possibly missing their two top cornerbacks. Marcus Peters is out and Jimmy Smith is questionable with an ankle injury. I don't see the Ravens being able to slow down Kansas City while also being unable to keep up with Mahomes on the offensive end. The left side of Baltimore's offensive line is banged up, including star left tackle Ronnie Stanley, and the team is down to backup running backs with J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards lost for the season.
09-19-21	Chiefs v. Ravens UNDER 54.5		35-36	Loss	-106	31 h 15 m	Show
This is a very big total. Certainly superstar QB's Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson are capable of producing huge scores. But a lot has to go right to buck this large of a total. The Ravens run a lot. Even without their two top running backs, injured J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, their game plan is going to remain the same - stay on the ground to keep the ball away from the deadly Mahomes. The Ravens are ground-oriented. That's who they are. Lead running back Ty'son Williams is untested. Latavius Murray is a straight-ahead runner perfect for the Under. Recently signed veterans Le'Veon Bell and Devonta Freeman are both washed-up. The Chiefs' defense gets reinforced this week with the expected return of star safety Tyrann Mathieu and respected pass rusher Frank Clark. The Ravens' offensive line gave up a lot of pressures and three sacks against the Raiders last Monday. Chris Jones is an elite pass rusher who the Ravens have to game plan against. The Chiefs' have a new offensive line with three first-year starters. The strength of that line are veterans Orlando Brown Jr. and Joe Thuney. Brown and Thuney are better run blockers than pass protectors. So the Chiefs could be running more than usual especially if they build up a big lead.
09-19-21	Vikings +4.5 v. Cardinals		33-34	Win	100	100 h 1 m	Show
The Cardinals were impressive in dismantling the Titans on the road this past Sunday. The Vikings,on the other hand, laid an egg losing in overtime to the Bengals. Yes, the Vikings have serious offensive line injuries and inexperienced cornerbacks. But they have a very defensive front seven that will be made even better if linebacker Anthony Barr is back this week. Mike Zimmer should have the Vikings in a very serious mood while the Cardinals return to the desert fat and happy. Kyler Murry is proving to be an elite talent. The Cardinals, though, are far from a complete team. They also are extremely vulnerable at the cornerback spots. Kirk Cousins has the skill position stars to take advantage with Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. The Cardinals deserve to be a home favorite. But no more than by a field goal.
09-19-21	Patriots -5.5 v. Jets		25-6	Win	100	94 h 41 m	Show
Having watched both the Patriots and Jets it's clear New England is at least a touchdown better than the Jets - and that's being the road team. The Patriots dominated yardage and time of possession against the Dolphins. They should have won that game. The Patriots rate enormous edges in the trenches against the Jets. New York had trouble protecting Zach Wilson against the Panthers and that was when they had its best offensive lineman, left tackle Mekhi Becton. He suffered a knee injury against Carolina and is out. Bill Belichick is 23-11-1 ATS for 68 percent the past 36 times the Patriots have played following a loss. Belichick also is 9-1 the past 10 times he's faced a rookie QB. New England rookie QB Mac Jones is in a far better position to succeed than Wilson playing behind an excellent offensive line, with a much stronger defense and excellent, proven coaching. The Jets barely averaged 15 points a game last season. They couldn't even reach that number against Carolina. Wilson didn't have time to throw and no ground game to rely on.
09-19-21	Patriots v. Jets UNDER 42.5		25-6	Win	100	94 h 39 m	Show
The Jets averaged an NFL-low 15.2 points last year. They managed just 14 points against the Panthers opening week. New England has a better defense than Carolina and the Jets had their best offensive lineman, Mekhi Becton, against the Panthers. Becton was injured in that game and won't play here. The Jets still can't run the ball, nor protect their quarterback. Bill Belichick is a master defensive strategist. He is 9-1 the past 10 times when going against a rookie QB. This doesn't bode well for Zach Wilson. The Jets figure to have a simple game plan. The Patriots aren't going to do anything fancy either in rookie Mac Jones' first road game. So expect a lot of running and short passing. Neither team has a stud running back.
09-19-21	Saints v. Panthers +3.5		7-26	Win	100	93 h 13 m	Show
The Saints played a great game against the Packers last week. But the Saints are not the 11-win power of past seasons. They have a turnover-prone QB and below average receivers with their top two wideouts hurt. Their defensive line depth is gone and their secondary is extremely vulnerable especially cornerback Marshon Lattimore out. The Panthers are an ascending team in Matt Ruhle's second year. They have the weapons to exploit the Saints' secondary with Christian McCaffrey, Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore. Carolina also has a lot of young talented defensive players. Brian Burns is an emerging star pass rusher. The Saints suffered a number of injuries last week, including one to center Erik McCoy, who is one of the better centers in the league.
09-19-21	Raiders v. Steelers -5.5	Top	26-17	Loss	-107	93 h 15 m	Show
All the preseason talk about the AFC North was about the Browns and Ravens. Lost in the glare of those teams is the Steelers, who happen to win 12 games last season and the AFC North. Pittsburgh led the NFL in sacks and had a top-three defense. There are new starters, but the Steelers' defense remains top-notch. Ben Roethlisberger is fresh right now. He has three strong wide receivers and a ground attack that now must be respected thanks to rookie running back Najee Harris. Las Vegas isn't in Pittsburgh's class. The Raiders also are in a horrible situational spot. They are coming off the biggest victory since they moved to Las Vegas two years ago with their Monday night home upset of the Ravens, which was the first game in Las Vegas where fans could attend. Now the Raiders have to travel cross-country on a short week. They also draw an early start time.
09-18-21	Oklahoma State v. Boise State UNDER 57.5		21-20	Win	100	26 h 50 m	Show
Oklahoma State and Boise State aren't the offensive powerhouses of past seasons. Yet the perception is there that they are. Oklahoma State has a banged-up wide receiver corps. The Cowboys' run-blocking hasn't been good. Boise State is averaging only 2.4 yards when it runs the ball. So the Broncos have trouble run-blocking, too. I'm also not sold on Hank Bachmneier as the next great Boise State QB. The weather can get tricky in Boise. That very well could be the case here as there's a chance of rain with winds in the 15-25 mph range.
09-18-21	Auburn v. Penn State UNDER 53		20-28	Win	100	24 h 21 m	Show
Seeing is believing. Auburn and Penn State have dominant defenses. Auburn has played a pair of lightweights, but still only gave up 10 points to Alabama State and Akron. The Tigers have the pass rushers in T.D. Moultry and Marquis Banks to harass Sean Clifford, who regressed last season. The Nittany Lions don't have the outstanding running back either of previous years. Likewise, Auburn isn't going to find things easy on offense operating against a tough Penn State defense that held its previous two opponents, Wisconsin and Ball State, to a combined 23 points. Auburn QB Bo Nixon has a history of playing worse on the road where he has more interceptions than touchdowns.
09-18-21	East Carolina v. Marshall -9.5		42-38	Loss	-110	44 h 5 m	Show
A major takeaway from Marshall opening the season 2-0 is Marshall's first-year head coach Charles Huff will run up a score. He's done it twice already. The Thunder Herd poured it on against Navy, 49-7, and buried North Carolina Central, 44-10. Grant Wells has been one of the best quarterbacks in the country. The Thunder Herd should roll again here. They have the offense and catch East Carolina off an excruciating defeat. The Pirates nearly upset South Carolina, but lost, 20-17, on a last-second field goal. The Pirates haven't been relevant since 2014. They are 16-43 the past six plus seasons. I find Holton Ahlers to be one of the most overrated quarterbacks in college football. His numbers don't translate to his hype.
09-18-21	Georgia Southern +24 v. Arkansas		10-45	Loss	-110	42 h 53 m	Show
Can you say sandwich? That's what Arkansas finds itself in this week. Fresh off a 40-21 upset of Texas, the Razorbacks became ranked for the first time since 2016. They have a much bigger game on deck against unbeaten Texas A&M. So the spot is right for Georgia Southern to hang inside of this large number. The Eagles run a triple-option attack. That means tons of running plays, which eats clock. Arkansas has yet to get its passing attack in gear. That means the Razorbacks also will be staying on the ground a lot, too. The Eagles didn't look good against Florida Atlantic. But the Eagles also didn't have their starting QB, Justin Tomlin. He's back for this game. Georgia Southern also could get running back JD King back from injury. Georgia Southern is better than how it played against Florida Atlantic. The Eagles defeated Louisiana Tech, 38-3, in the New Orleans Bowl last season. They have covered each of the last six times they've met a foe with a winning record.
09-18-21	Florida State +5 v. Wake Forest		14-35	Loss	-110	42 h 34 m	Show
The oddsmaker is significantly downgrading Florida State after the 0-2 Seminoles lost to Notre Dame and Jacksonville State, an FCS program. OK, I get that. But Florida State lost each of those games on the final play and Jacksonville State isn't a bad team. The Seminoles may still have been down about their overtime loss to Notre Dame in their opener and were affected by that against Jacksonville State. Both of Florida State's losses came at home. So maybe it's best the Seminoles go on the road where their focus could be sharper especially in need of a victory. It's rare to see Wake Forest a favorite against Florida State. Nothing against Wake Forest, who are a solid team and well coached. But the Seminoles are the more athletic and talented team. I like both of Florida State's QB's, Jordan Travis and McKenzie Milton. The Demon Deacons' 2-0 record should be looked at skeptically since it came against Norfolk State and Old Dominion.
09-18-21	Purdue v. Notre Dame -7	Top	13-27	Win	100	41 h 33 m	Show
Notre Dame has been life and death to nip Florida State in overtime and hold off upset-minded Toledo. That has caused the linesmaker to underrated Notre Dame. The Irish are still an elite team, two levels higher than Purdue especially when at home. Jack Coan has answered the big question at quarterback. He's completed nearly 70 percent of his throws for more than 600 yards with six TD passes. The Irish are much better at the other positions than they have shown so far. If the Irish are vulnerable it's in stopping the run. Purdue, though, is a passing team. The Boilermakers don't run the ball well. Purdue is stepping way up in class after getting to play hapless Connecticut last week. The Boilermakers buried the Huskies, 49-0.
09-18-21	Boston College v. Temple +15		28-3	Loss	-110	38 h 58 m	Show
Temple can hang here given the season-ending wrist injury to Boston College QB Phil Jurkovec. Boston College beat UMass, 45-28, last week behind senior QB Dennis Grosel, who is a big step down from Jurkovec, a pro prospect. Temple is better than UMass and will be playing its home opener here. Boston College is 2-8 ATS following a victory. The Owls were hammered, 61-14, by improved Rutgers. But that score was misleading. Rutgers only outgained Tempe by 104 yards. Temple came back from that loss to down Akron, 45-24, as a 6 1/2-point road favorite.
09-18-21	Virginia Tech v. West Virginia UNDER 50.5		21-27	Win	100	33 h 19 m	Show
Virginia Tech is showing signs of having one of the top defenses in the country. The Hokies held North Carolina and its superstar QB Sam Howell to 10 points and then held Middle Tennessee State to 14 points. The Hokies have permitted 703 yards combined, recorded nine sacks and have four interceptions. West Virginia is no slouch defensively either. The Mountaineers are tough against the run. Virginia Tech is run-oriented. The Hokies rank 88th in yards per play despite playing less than stellar defenses.
09-17-21	Maryland v. Illinois +7	Top	20-17	Win	100	27 h 5 m	Show
Sparked by QB Brandon Peters, Illinois defeated Nebraska, 30-22, back on Aug. 28. Peters, however, was injured in that game. He didn't play in the Illini's last two games, losses to UTSA and Virginia. Peters is back for this game. The Illini are being underrated here because of a bad 42-14 loss to Virginia. I believe Illinois is better and tougher under new coach Bret Bielema. The Illini will prove it here. I'm not a fan of Maryland coach Mike Locksley. I especially want to go against Maryland as a road favorite in this point spread range. The Terrapins have covered only 27 percent of their last 26 away contests. The Terrapins are 2-0, but their last game was against FCS foe Howard, a 62-0 win. So their statistics are skewed. This also is Maryland's first road game.
09-16-21	Giants v. Washington Football Team -3.5	Top	29-30	Loss	-100	20 h 5 m	Show
The Giants have two major things against them besides traveling on a short week, which is already factored into the line. No. 1: A wretched offensive line that is taking on a very good Washington pass rush headed by emerging superstar Chase Young and underrated Montez Sweat. That offensive line - ignored during the offseason by Giants management - is down starting guard Shane Lemieux, too. Von Miller caused havoc in Week 1 during the Broncos', 27-13, road win against New York. That score is even more lopsided than the final score as Daniel Jones scored a meaningless TD on the final play. No. 2: Jones. He's the most turnover-prone QB in the league. He has either fumbled or thrown an interception 57 times in 27 career starts. Jones isn't helped by the play-calling of dull-witted Jason Garrett, perhaps the least creative offensive coordinator in the NFL. The perception, judging by the betting line of around a field goal, is that these teams are even given that Washington has home field, which generally is considered worth three points. I don't consider these teams to be even, however. Where are the Giants' edges? I can't find any. New York has a respectable defense. Washington has a top-five caliber defense. Washington QB Taylor Heinicke is less likely to turn the ball over compared to Jones in what should be a conservative game. Terry McLaurin is easily the best wide receiver and I would take Antonio Gibson above Saquon Barkley as the top running back on the field. Don't agree? Consider this then: Barkley averaged 1.8 yards last season before suffering his ACL tear. He averaged 2.6 yards against the Broncos in 10 carries. Barkley isn't likely ticketed for heavy duty here playing his second game in four days following his serious knee surgery. Gibson will be heavily featured. The Giants yielded nearly six yards per carry against Denver running backs Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams. I would give Washington the coaching checkmark, too, preferring the braintrust of Ron Rivera and offensive coordinator Scott Turner over Joe Judge and Garrett.
09-13-21	Ravens -4 v. Raiders	Top	27-33	Loss	-110	148 h 38 m	Show
Sure the Raiders will be up for this Monday game being their first home game in Las Vegas in front of fans. It won't matter. The Ravens totally outclass the Raiders. Baltimore is ready to go after still another unbeaten preseason. The Ravens have won and covered opening week each of the last five seasons with their average victory margin being by 30.2 points. The Raiders went 2-6 during their first year in Las Vegas last season. The Ravens have been a strong road team under John Harbaugh winning 13 of their past 16 away contests. They also have covered 83 percent of the time as road chalk during the last two seasons. The Ravens return nearly all of their starters from last year's 11-win team. Lamar Jackson should produce monster numbers against a Raiders defense that has ranked in the bottom-four each of the last four years. The Raiders' personnel moves continue to puzzle. They got rid of key members of their offensive line. So a strength now is a major question mark. The spotlight will be on the electrifying Jackson, but the Ravens also will control the trenches. The combination is enough to produce a win by double-digits.
09-12-21	Bears v. Rams UNDER 46		14-34	Loss	-104	126 h 31 m	Show
The Bears don't have the dominant defense of several years ago. Still, their defense is respectable if not above average. Chicago's problem isn't defense. The Bears offense isn't going to show any life until they make the QB switch to rookie Justin Fields. Veteran Andy Dalton last was decent five years ago. So I don't see the Bears producing many points with Dalton and an offensive line that appears weaker than last season. Chicago is banking on 39-year-old Jason Peters bailing out its offensive line. There's a far greater chance of Aaron Donald, the premier defensive lineman in the NFC, causing huge problems. Allen Robinson is Chicago's lone strong weapon. Rams superstar cornerback Jalen Ramsey should handle Robinson leaving over-the-hill Dalton devoid of skill position talent around him, which he needs to have for any success. The Bears and Rams have met each of the last three seasons. The scores were 24-10, 17-7 and 15-6. None came close to going Over. This one shouldn't either.
09-12-21	Dolphins v. Patriots UNDER 44		17-16	Win	100	123 h 1 m	Show
There were a combined 32 and 34 points scored in the two meetings last season between these teams. Expect a similar low-scoring matchup this time, too. The Dolphins added some enticing big-play weapons, but are basically a conservative team as Tua Tagovalioa remains largely untested and untrustworthy in his second season for Miami to feature a wide open offense. The Dolphins will be without deep threat, Will Fuller, in this game. He's suspended. The Patriots have upgraded their defensive front seven, adding a lot of size and playmaking linebackers. Miami has a below-average offensive line. Bill Belichick is a master at defensive game-planning. He has had ample time to prepare for the inexperienced Tagovailoa. Dolphins coach Brian Flores, formerly an assistant under Belichick, knows this. New England is a run-first team starting a rookie QB, Mac Jones. The Patriots' offense lacks any explosion. So the Patriots are likely to be vanilla, too, relying on their defense and playing for field position. Miami has excellent cornerbacks. I highly doubt Jones tests them. Instead he'll be conservative going with the run and short passes.
09-12-21	Broncos -2.5 v. Giants		27-13	Win	100	122 h 12 m	Show
Teddy Bridgewater has won 65 percent of his NFL starts going 22-12. This has been accomplished because Bridgewater is mobile and a highly-accurate game manager-type who has had the good fortune to have played with strong defenses. That's the case again this season. Denver's defense should be one of the best in the NFL with the return of pass rusher Von Miller and the addition of rookie cornerback Patrick Surtain to go with star pass rusher Bradley Chubb and a very strong secondary. I don't see the Giants producing much against this caliber of defense. The Giants had the second-worst offense last season. They failed to address their offensive line shortcomings so I'm not expecting much, if any, improvement from turnover-prone QB Daniel Jones. Denver's defensive guru coach Vic Fangio is top-notch at mixing blitzing schemes and getting the best matchups. Bridgewater has multiple weapons at his disposal, including Jerry Jeudy, Cortland Sutton, Noah Fant and KJ Hamler. The Broncos are at least a level higher than the Giants.
09-12-21	Cardinals v. Titans OVER 52		38-13	Loss	-109	119 h 1 m	Show
Given their offensive prowess and weak defense, the Titans are going to be involved in a lot of shootouts this season. This should be one of them. The Cardinals averaged just a shade under 29 points during their first 10 games last season before Kyler Murray got banged-up. Murray is back healthy. The Cardinals' offensive line is improved and rookie Rondale Moore adds to Murray's weapons arsenal. The Titans not only have the reigning two-time rushing champion in Derrick Henry, but added Julio Jones to go with A.J. Brown, who I consider a top-seven wide receiver. The Cardinals are inexperienced and vulnerable at the cornerback spots. Ryan Tannehill should produce a big game against this vulnerable secondary.
09-12-21	Vikings -3 v. Bengals	Top	24-27	Loss	-120	120 h 51 m	Show
Much is made of the Bengals' excellent wide receiving group. But what really needs to be said about the Bengals is their serious flaws on defense and in their offensive line. They could have the worst guards in the league. The Vikings were a top-four defensive unit for three straight years until last year when injuries and opt-outs caused a huge drop. The Vikings have revamped their defense to their previous standards. Underrated Danielle Hunter is back and he's going to wreak havoc on the Bengals' pitiful offensive line. It remains to be seen how much mobility Joe Burrow will have in his first game since tearing his ACL/MCL last season. Defenses averaged 3.2 sacks of Burrow before he went down. This could be Mike Zimmer's most-explosive Vikings team in his eight years at Minnesota. Dalvin Cook is the second-best all-purpose running back in the NFL and Justin Jefferson is a top-seven wide receiver. Kirk Cousins also has red zone master Adam Thielen to throw to.
09-11-21	Missouri v. Kentucky OVER 53.5		28-35	Win	100	122 h 50 m	Show
Good defense, mediocre run-oriented offense. That's been Kentucky's style and stereotype for years. It's different this year, though, and the oddsmaker hasn't fully caught on yet. The Wildcats' defense is down this season. Missouri has the offensive weapons to take advantage. Missouri doesn't have a good defense, though. The Wildcats are playing at a faster tempo under new offensive coordinator, Liam Coen, a disciple of Sean McVay as an assistant coach with the Los Angeles Rams before coming to Kentucky. Coen has the reputation as an offensive whiz with an emphasis on passing. Will Levis is a much better passer than the Wildcats have previously had in recent seasons.
09-11-21	NC State v. Mississippi State	Top	10-24	Loss	-110	50 h 13 m	Show
The national media hasn't caught on yet, but the wise guys have. North Carolina State is extremely strong this season, probably the second-best team in the ACC. The Wolfpack have no glaring weaknesses. They have a strong, experienced offensive line. Excellent skill position talent and a shut-down caliber defense. Mississippi State isn't in that class. The Bulldogs are way too prone to turning the ball over and making mistakes. Yes they have an exciting attack. But they're going to turn the ball over and commit dumb, costly mistakes. It's a typical Mike Leach team. The Bulldogs had to outscore Louisiana Tech by 18 points in the fourth quarter to pull out a 35-34 opening week win as 20 1/2-point home favorites. That's what happens when you turn the ball over six times and commit 12 penalties as the Bulldogs did. That kind of sloppy performance certainly isn't going to cut it stepping way up in class against North Carolina State. It's telling that Mississippi State couldn't control the line of scrimmage against Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs don't have the defense to stop North Carolina State even if their offense cuts way back on the turnovers.
09-11-21	South Alabama v. Bowling Green UNDER 51.5		22-19	Win	100	118 h 8 m	Show
South Alabama held Southern Mississippi to seven points and 259 yards of offense in a 31-7 opening victory last week. Yes, Southern Mississippi is bad although Frank Gore Jr. is one of the better running backs in Conference USA. This defensive effort wasn't a fluke. The Jaguars' defense is improved under defensive-minded Kane Wommack, who did an excellent job as defensive coordinator at Indiana before coming to South Alabama. Bowling Green is better defensively than on offense. The Falcons have scored 36 points in their last four games, including six against Tennessee last week. That's an average of nine points per game. Both teams play at a slow pace, too.
09-11-21	UAB +24.5 v. Georgia		7-56	Loss	-110	42 h 18 m	Show
I regard UAB as the best team in Conference USA and one of the more unsung teams in the nation. The Blazers catch Georgia at a good time. The Bulldogs are in letdown and sandwich mode after a highly-satisfying, hard-fought, 10-3, win against Clemson last week. Georgia hosts South Carolina next week in its opening SEC matchup. The Bulldogs also are dealing with COVID-19 issues. This may or may not have a bearing on team depth, but it's certainly not a plus for Georgia. UAB took care of business in its opener shutting out Jacksonville State, 31-0. The Blazers defense showed why it is highly regarded holding Jacksonville State to 154 yards of total offense. Tyler Johnson gives UAB a reliable QB and he's playing behind a very good offensive line. So I don't see the Blazers getting totally outclassed here like the point spread suggests.
09-11-21	Buffalo v. Nebraska OVER 54.5		3-28	Loss	-110	24 h 42 m	Show
I get that the opponents of these two teams were Wagner and Fordham last week. Still, both Buffalo and Nebraska's offenses looked great. I'm betting these offenses stay that way this week. I trust the offenses more than the defenses. The Bulls buried Wagner, 69-7, while Nebraska rolled past Fordham 52-7. Cornhuskers QB Adrian Martinez played one of his best games, while the Bulls showed they can still run the ball piling up 312 yards on the ground after superstar runner Jaret Patterson moved on to the pros.
09-11-21	Rutgers -125 v. Syracuse		17-7	Win	100	40 h 13 m	Show
I like what Greg Schiano is doing at Rutgers. The won/lost results haven't been there for the Scarlet Knights, but I see that changing this season after several strong recruiting classes. Rutgers certainly looked good in destroying Temple, 61-14, last week. I understand Temple is weak, but the Owls were supposed to be improved this year. The line is short here because Syracuse also was impressive during opening week, taking out Ohio, 29-9, as a short road 'dog. Now, though, the Orangemen go from a MAC team to a Big Ten opponent. Syracuse has failed to cover the past five times following a victory. I've never been a fan of Syracuse QB Tommy DeVito and he doesn't have good offensive line protection either. Rutgers has covered in its last five road games.
09-09-21	Cowboys v. Bucs -7.5	Top	29-31	Loss	-105	100 h 47 m	Show
I don't see the Cowboys being able to stay within double digits of the Buccaneers. Unlike last season, when it took them half the season for them to gel under new QB Tom Brady, the Buccaneers are fully in sync. The Super Bowl champs have all of their starters back and their deep set of receivers should carve up a Dallas defense that was historically bad last season. I don't expect the Cowboys to surrender 29.6 points a game and permit 34 TD passes like in 2020. But I certainly don't expect them to be one of the better defensive units either as they make the change to new defensive coordinator Dan Quinn. This will be Dak Prescott's first game since suffering a horrific broken ankle last year. He'll be behind a thin offensive line minus several players due to injuries and COVID. The Buccaneers are top-notch against the run so I'm not expecting a big game either from Ezekiel Elliott. Super Bowl champions opening at home are a dominant 18-2 SU, 14-4-2 ATS.
09-06-21	Louisville v. Ole Miss UNDER 76	Top	24-43	Win	100	16 h 52 m	Show
The oddsmaker is envisioning a monster shootout with this large of a total. I understand the thinking. Both teams have excellent QB's and defenses that are not well respected. I just don't agree with that high-of-a-score thinking. I like Mississippi QB Matt Corral a lot. He's a likely first-round draft pick. Louisville, however, isn't that bad on defense. The Cardinals were fourth in the ACC in yards allowed and return seven starters from that unit. Corral doesn't have monster talent Elijah Moore anymore. He's with the Jets now. Mississippi's defense is much maligned. But when last spotted the Rebels were holding Indiana to 20 points in a 26-20 Outback Bowl victory. The Rebels are big in the trenches, have athletic linebackers and an experienced secondary. Louisville QB Malik Cunningham is more dangerous as a runner. The Cardinals run more than they pass so that's going to eat clock. Cunningham lost his two best wide receivers from a year ago. The Rebels will be without Lane Kiffin, an aggressive, offensive-minded coach. He tested positive for COVID-19 and has to miss the game. I regard that as a plus for the Under.
09-05-21	Notre Dame v. Florida State +7.5	Top	41-38	Win	100	56 h 23 m	Show
Florida State stands an excellent chance of getting its revenge for a 42-26 loss suffered on the road to Notre Dame last year. The Irish lost considerable talent. It's going to take them time to gel. I'm not a fan of their quarterback, Jack Coan, remembering how ineffective he was at Wisconsin before transferring to Notre Dame. I remain surprised that he's the Irish's starting QB. Notre Dame also is breaking in four new starting offensive linemen. Florida State has another talented, athletic and fast roster. The Seminoles should bounce back from last season's COVID-ravaged year. I like both of the Seminoles' QB's - Jordan Travis and McKenzie Milton - better than Coan. Milton was a superstar throwing for 8,683 yards and 72 TD's in three years at Central Florida before suffering a serious knee injury in 2018. He's now ready to resume his career. There's another situational edge to this matchup for Florida State. It's the Seminoles' first game since the passing of longtime and beloved coach Bobby Bowden. So the team should be sky high.
09-04-21	Baylor -14 v. Texas State	Top	29-20	Loss	-105	18 h 13 m	Show
Baylor is coming off a disastrous COVID-shortened 2-7 season, which ruined Dave Aranda's first season in Waco. I'm looking for the Bears to be much better this year. As bad as Baylor was last year the Bears still rate more than a two touchdown class difference against Texas State of the Sun Belt Conference. The Bobcats are 15-57 the last six years, including 2-10 last season under third-year coach Jake Spavital. Aranda had been one of the most highly-respected defensive coordinators in college football before coming to Baylor. His defense, which returns 10 starters, shouldn't have problems against a weak Texas State offense that has been unsettled at QB and devoid of playmakers. Texas State is bad on defense, too, giving up nearly 40 points a game last season and close to 500 yards. The Bears have covered 71 percent of their last 15 away contests.
09-04-21	Louisiana Tech v. Mississippi State OVER 52.5		34-35	Win	100	15 h 16 m	Show
Louisiana Tech lacks the necessary pass rush to bother Mike Leach's Air Raid offense. Mississippi State should put up plenty of points having a better grasp of Leach's aggressive style of attack. Bulldogs QB Will Rogers had a 69 percent completion rate last season, which was the second-highest in FBS history for a freshman. He'll be even better this season as will Mississippi State backed by a veteran wide receiving corps. Louisiana Tech will contribute its fair share to getting this total Over. Mississippi State gave up nearly 35 points per game last year. Louisiana Tech averaged nearly four TD's a game and fortified its offense with a number of transfers. Veteran Austin Kendall will be under center for Louisiana Tech. He learned his craft at Oklahoma where he backed up Baker Mayfield and then went to West Virginia where he passed for 2,153 yards and 14 TD's in 11 games.
09-04-21	Marshall v. Navy UNDER 47.5		49-7	Loss	-118	15 h 49 m	Show
Slow tempo, lots of running and strong defenses. That's a nice recipe for an Under, which should happen here. Only 11 teams had a slower pace than Navy last season. The Midshipmen, with their triple-option attack, are going to have problems producing many points against Marshall. The Thundering Herd led the nation in scoring defense last season. They gave up less than 100 yards rushing per game. Navy averaged 4.3 points during its final three games last year. Marshall plays slow, too, and lacks explosive weapons. Navy's defense came on strong last season surrendering only 14.3 points during its final three games.
09-03-21	Michigan State +3.5 v. Northwestern		38-21	Win	100	20 h 38 m	Show
You might think this game should be a mismatch. After all, Northwestern went 7-2 and won a bowl game last season while Michigan State struggled going 2-5 with two games cancelled during Mel Tucker's first season. You would think wrong, though. Northwestern lost much of its talent from last year, including QB Peyton Ramsey, star offensive lineman Rashawn Slater and its cornerback and receiving corps. Perhaps no major conference team lost as many players through graduation as Northwestern. Michigan State, on the other hand, should be much improved. The Spartans are far more stable in Tucker's second year. Michigan State returns twice as many starters as Northwestern and has the talent at wide receiver to take advantage of Northwestern's inexperienced secondary. Note, too, that one of Michigan State's victories last season was against Northwestern, 29-20. The Spartans also defeated the Wildcats, 31-10, at Northwestern in 2019.
09-02-21	Boise State v. Central Florida -5.5	Top	31-36	Loss	-107	22 h 24 m	Show
Buckle your seat belt because this is going to be a fast ride with these two teams. Both have new head coaches. The belief here is that Central Florida has more reliable firepower than Boise State at this early stage. Making a long trip to play in the heat and humidity of Florida works against Boise State, too. Central Florida coach Gus Malzahn was let go at Auburn despite never finishing below .500 in eight seasons. Malzahn is an offensive whiz. UCF has averaged more than 40 points per game in each of the last four seasons. The Knights have one of the top QB's in the country, Dillon Gabriel. He threw for 3,570 yards with a 32-to-4 TD-to-interception ratio in 10 games last season. The Broncos have a new coach, Andy Avalos, and a new offensive coordinator, Tim Plough. Avalos is unproven. Malzahn isn't.
09-01-21	UAB v. Jacksonville State +16.5	Top	31-0	Loss	-105	8 h 48 m	Show
This actually should be a good game as these are two talented teams. UAB has the better defense and more depth, but Jacksonville State is a dangerous opponent having made the FCS playoffs six of the past seven years. The Gamecocks have the necessary run defense and offensive firepower to keep things close the entire game. Jacksonville State QB Zerrick Cooper is either first or second in school history in passing TD's, passing yards and total offensive yards. The Gamecocks have their entire offensive line intact and feature solid skill position talent around Cooper. UAB has a strong team, too. But the Blazers no longer have their all-time leading rusher, Spencer Brown, and they lost 50 percent of their receiving production from the past two seasons. I'm not anti-UAB here. I just think Jacksonville State is being underrated lacking the name recognition being an FCS school.
08-28-21	Hawaii v. UCLA UNDER 68.5	Top	10-44	Win	100	100 h 49 m	Show
Both teams improved defensively last season and should be even better this year. Hawaii has all of its key defensive starters back and added three potential starting transfers, including two in the secondary. The Rainbow Warriors surrendered an average of 27.6 points a game, their lowest figure in seven years. UCLA's offense could get off to a slow start since QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson missed the first few fall practices. UCLA's defense gave up 30.7 points a game last season, down from the 34 points they allowed per game during the previous two seasons. The Bruins return 10 defensive starters. Hawaii QB Chevan Cordeiro is decent, but he's nothing great especially compared to previous star Rainbow Warrior QB's.
02-07-21	Chiefs v. Bucs UNDER 56.5	Top	9-31	Win	100	182 h 31 m	Show
The Super Bowl is the one NFL game where public money outweighs sharp money. The public almost always bets Over especially on marquee matchups such as this one. The oddsmaker knows that. So I see value on the Under. Much is being made of the Buccaneers being the home team because the game is being played at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa. But as far as the total is concerned that venue is a plus for the Under. It's an outdoor stadium with a grass field. So it's not a fast surface. The two teams met there this past Nov. 29 and the Chiefs won, 27-24, for a combined final score of 51 points. Patrick Mahomes is the most feared QB in football. Tyreek Hill is the most dangerous wideout. Travis Kelce the best tight end. I acknowledge all of that. But it's difficult to produce big points against a very good defense without a decent running attack. I don't see the Chiefs being able to run on Tampa Bay. No team could during the season. The Buccaneers had the No. 1 rush defense in the NFL. The return of star nose tackle Vita Vea has only strengthened that unit. Clyde Edwards-Helaire hasn't looked good after being out with hip and ankle injuries. Le'Veon Bell doesn't have much left and he missed the AFC title game due to a sore knee. This puts nearly the entire onus on Mahomes. He's being asked to put up four-to-five touchdowns - as you need TD's not field goals to get above this high of a total - with a lackluster ground attack, facing a strong defense and without his starting offensive tackles. Right tackle Mitchell Schwartz was put on injured reserve in Week 11 and left tackle Eric Fisher suffered a season-ending Achilles tendon injury in the AFC title game. Mahomes was brilliant in the title game victory versus Buffalo. However, he was merely a mortal in his previous five games with an 8-to-5 touchdown-to-turnover ratio. Mahomes hasn't faced an insider linebacker duo the caliber of Lavonte David and Devin White. These guys can not only effectively blitz, but also cover well. The Buccaneers also have two tremendous edge pass rushers, Shaquill Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul. Those two have combined for 45 1/2 sacks during the past two seasons. The Buccaneers have a solid secondary, too. Safety Antoine Winfield Jr. showed star ability in his rookie season. Cornerback Carlton Davis shut down Michael Thomas and held Davonte Adams to 67 receiving yards during Tampa Bay's last two games. Todd Bowles is an elite defensive coordinator. He gave Aaron Rodgers more trouble than any other defensive coordinator this season. Bowles is aggressive, but also shrewd. The Buccaneers can pick their spots blitzing - which is dangerous against Mahomes - because Barrett and Pierre-Paul are such good pass rushers and the Chiefs are minus their two best offensive tackles. I envision the Buccaneers being conservative on offense using more running plays than expected. Both Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones are healthy. They are good players for Under bettors because they are inside runners who are more reliable than flashy. The Chiefs have a bend-but-don't-break defense. Many of their defensive statistics were below average. But they are above average in the category that matters most - points allowed. Only nine teams gave up fewer points per game than Kansas City, which allowed 22.6. Chris Jones and Frank Clark give the Chiefs two good pass rushers. Safety play is huge versus Tom Brady. Kansas City is covered there, too. The Chiefs are deep at safety. Tyrann Mathieu and Juan Thornhill are both excellent. Mathieu has the most interceptions of any safety during the past two years. Here are some prop bet recommendations. Obviously best to shop because numbers and prices vary. Most of these props are courtesy of the Westgate sports book. Under 10 1/2 Accepted Penalties Accepted offensive penalties were the lowest in the NFL since the modern 32-team era. There seems to be an unwritten mandate from the league to officials to cut back on penalties. Few penalties are likely going to be called in the Super Bowl. The league doesn't want their showcase game to be littered with yellow flags. There were just six penalties accessed in the NFC title game. Tampa Bay had only two. There were seven penalties marked off in the AFC championship game with Kansas City accounting for just three. During the 12 postseason games, there were 10 or fewer penalties in nine of the games. That's 75 percent. The Buccaneers had 12 penalties in their three playoffs games for an average of four. The Buccaneers were tied for 20th in penalties during the regular season. The Chiefs had the fourth-most penalties during the regular season. That's a big reason why this penalty total prop is at double-digits. However, the Chiefs had just three penalties marked against them in their AFC title win against Buffalo. You could see in the title games that official's were only calling obvious fouls. They were letting a lot of physical defensive play, such as holding and grabbing, go especially in the Buccaneers-Packers game. I don't see why that would change for the biggest game of them all. Cameron Brate Under 26 1/2 receiving yards Brate is a short-yardage, red zone target. I don't see Tom Brady looking for Brate outside the red zone when he has Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, Chris Godwin, Scotty Miller, Tyler Johnson, Leonard Fournette out of the backfield and fellow tight end Rob Gronkowski to throw to. This doesn't leave room for Brate. Tyrann Mathieu Over 4 1/2 assisted/solo tackles Mathieu is one of the most productive safeties and he figures to be plenty busy. He's a defensive centerpiece, similar in chess terms to a queen. I wouldn't be surprised if he had more than four solo tackles. When you add assists, it's a no-brainer for me. Ronald Jones Over 34 1/2 rushing yards I believe the Buccaneers are going to run more than some expect in order to keep Mahomes and the Chiefs offense off the field for as long as possible. Leonard Fournette has the higher rushing Over/Under yardage figure, but Jones is Tampa Bay's best running back in my view. Jones had a breakthrough season rushing for 978 yards. He averaged 5.1 yards per carry, which was the eighth-highest in the league. Fournette is going to get carries, but so is Jones. Most Valuable Player I'd make a pizza wager on linebacker Devin White at 40-1. I like the Under so a lower-scoring game than expected and a Tampa Bay victory could put White in contention. I do a Rotisserie-style fantasy football league in which tackles and sacks are separate categories. So I can tell you White is just a tremendous talent since I've watched him closely. He piles up tackles and gets sacks, too. There is recent precedent for defensive players winning Super Bowl MVP honors. It's happened twice in the last seven seasons with Malcolm Smith doing it and Von Miller achieving the feat five seasons ago.
01-24-21	Bucs v. Packers OVER 51.5		31-26	Win	100	50 h 51 m	Show
I'm expecting a shootout. These team's offenses trump their defenses. Tampa Bay produced 38 points on the Packers in their Week 6 matchup - and its offense has gotten better and more diversified since then. Tom Brady has the savvy and weapons to take advantage of the Packers' inexperienced linebackers and lack of depth in the secondary. Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette not only provide Brady with reliable short-yardage running backs, but they set him up well for play-action. Green Bay doesn't have enough quality defensive backs to handle Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski. The Packers also have extremely weak punt coverage so the Buccaneers should be operating in good field position. Not that the Buccaneers are going to be receiving many punts because I also see the Packers producing far more points than the 10 they managed in their 38-10 Week 6 loss to Tampa Bay. Green Bay led the NFL in scoring. That Week 6 game was the only time their offense was held in check. Aaron Rodgers is as great mentally as he is physically. The Packers have made many adjustments since that loss. Their offense is in peak form. The Buccaneers love to blitz. That's the signature of their aggressive defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. Rodgers is a master at reading the blitz. It's actually good for Rodgers that he's played the Bucs this season. He'll know what to expect. Green Bay's offensive line is playing better since that game even without injured star left tackle David Bakhitari. Blitzing isn't going to hide the Buccaneers' warts in their secondary that Rodgers will expose. The Packers took apart the Rams' No. 1 defense last week. Green Bay's offense is too in sync to be slowed down at this late stage especially given the Hall of Fame form Rodgers is in now.
01-24-21	Bucs +4 v. Packers	Top	31-26	Win	100	132 h 24 m	Show
If there is one NFC team that matches up well to Green Bay and can beat the Packers it's the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay proved that back in Week 6 when it took apart the Packers, 38-10. The Buccaneers shut out the Packers for the final three quarters. It was Green Bay's worst game of the season by far. So what's happened since then? The Packers' defense has improved and Aaron Rodgers put that game behind him to have one of the most magnificent seasons in NFL history. The Packers have the league's No. 1 scoring offense, a good defense and home-field where the weather forecast is for temperatures in the 20s and around a 40 percent chance of snow. But the Buccaneers also have improved. They, too, are peaking at the right time. Tom Brady is in sync with his new offense and receivers. Davonte Adams gives Rodgers the best receiver on the field. But Brady has the four next best receivers with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski. Shutdown cornerback Jaire Alexander can only lock up on one of Tampa Bay's trio of excellent wideouts. Tampa Bay has won six in a row. The Bucs haven't lost by more than a field goal in their last nine games. Cold January weather doesn't bother Brady. He's certainly experienced it. Tampa Bay is averaging 36.6 points in its last five games. The Buccaneers put up 30 and 31 points in their playoff victories against two outstanding defensive teams, Washington and New Orleans. Green Bay's defense had just 11 interceptions. The Buccaneers picked off Drew Brees three times last Sunday. The Buccaneers led the NFL in run defense holding foes to 80.6 rushing yards per game, 10 yards fewer than the NFL's second-best run defense, and now they could get back star nose tackle Vita Vea from injured reserve. He's expected to practice this week. The Packers couldn't run on Tampa Bay in their earlier meeting. Aaron Jones was held to 15 yards on 10 carries. Inside linebackers Devin White and Lavonte David also make this a tough game for Green Bay. Those two not only can pressure the quarterback, but they are outstanding in pass coverage. They were dominant in Tampa Bay's victory against the Packers. Not to take anything away from Green Bay's smashing win against the Rams last week, but Aaron Donald only was about 50 percent because of a rib injury. The Packers didn't even need to double team him. The Packers have proven vulnerable to power run teams. The 49ers exploited that weakness in the NFC title game last season and the Colts had that going for them in their victory against the Packers this season. Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette give the Buccaneers a pair of power runners and provide Brady with needed balance. While the Buccaneers have some of the best linebackers in the NFL, the Packers' linebackers are composed of free agents and middle-to-late round draft picks. Then there are special teams. Thus far the Packers have been able to cover up their weak punt and punt return teams. Green Bay ranks 30th in net punt average and 31st in punt returns. They also have a bad long snapper. These are areas that could bite the Packers now that they are playing their toughest opponents.
01-17-21	Bucs v. Saints -3	Top	30-20	Loss	-110	127 h 57 m	Show
I've never bought into that cliche of it's tough to beat a team three times in a season. New Orleans beat Tampa Bay, 34-20, opening week and defeated the Buccaneers far worse in Tampa, 38-3, in Week 9 when Tom Brady was more in sync with his new team. Brady had a 2-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio in those losses to the Saints. Truth be told, Brady hasn't been that sharp when taking on strong defenses such as New Orleans. The Saints could have the hottest defense during the second half of the season. They've held seven of their last 10 foes to 16 points or fewer. New Orleans defense only had to be on the field for 21 minutes against the Bears last week. I like the Saints' defensive line, perhaps the deepest in the league, to win the battle of the trenches especially with the Buccaneers losing guard Alex Cappa to an ankle injury. Brady doesn't have the mobility to escape a strong pass rush, which the Saints can generate without blitzes. Tampa Bay is 2-5 SU and ATS against playoff teams. The Saints are the steadier team with a highly-efficient offense and the best playmaker on the field in Alvin Kamara. Drew Brees has his top wideouts healthy again, including Michael Thomas. New Orleans has home-field, far more postseason experience than Tampa Bay and the built-in confidence of two previous lopsided victories.
01-16-21	Ravens v. Bills OVER 50	Top	3-17	Loss	-110	113 h 17 m	Show
Lamar Jackson is back in MVP form. Josh Allen has become a top-five caliber quarterback. Offense is going to trump defense in this matchup. Baltimore closed the regular-season averaging 37 points and 430 yards of total offense during its last five games. Jackson accounted for 15 TD's and 1,200 yards of total offense with a 110.6 passer rating during this span. The Ravens are the No. 1 rushing team in the NFL. J.K. Dobbins and Jackson will be the two best runners on the field. Buffalo ranked 17th in run defense. The Bills gave up 472 yards to the Colts last week. Their defense was on the field for nearly 35 minutes. Buffalo was fortunate the Colts didn't produce more than 24 points. They were inches away from doing that. The Ravens average more points per game than the Colts. The last time the Bills faced a dual threat QB anywhere near the caliber of Jackson was against the Cardinals back in mid-November when Kyler Murray put up 32 points against them. Jackson is superior to Murray. It wouldn't surprise if the Bills defense melted down in the fourth quarter from constant pounding. The Ravens' defense was highly impressive in dispatching the Titans, 20-13, last week. Baltimore's defensive strengths matched up well to Tennessee. It also was the third time Baltimore and Tennessee had met in one calendar year. So the Ravens had a great deal of familiarity with the Titans. Baltimore is not so well acquainted with Buffalo. Allen isn't the inconsistent, inaccurate quarterback he was during his first two years in the league. He broke out in a major way during his third season accounting for 45 touchdowns while breaking many of Buffalo's team passing records. The Bills broke their franchise scoring record by 43 points producing 501 points. The Bills are the opposite of the Ravens in that they set up the run by passing - if they even want to bother running. The Ravens like to blitz. They put a lot of trust in their cornerbacks. Buffalo is a dangerous matchup for them because of Allen's tremendous mobility and receiving targets - Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, John Brown and emerging Gabriel Davis. Each of these wideouts brings something to the table. Diggs has been unstoppable this season. Beasley is a reliable move-the-chains target. Brown is a deep threat. Davis has caught six passes for 192 yards during the last two games. Buffalo weather in January can be tricky. But the forecast is calling for temperatures in the low 30s with 10-12 mph wind. So the weather shouldn't be a hindrance to the total.
01-11-21	Ohio State v. Alabama -8	Top	24-52	Win	100	129 h 9 m	Show
Ohio State has its worst defense of recent years especially in the secondary. Alabama has its most explosive offense ever, which is saying a lot. This combination is enough for the Crimson Tide to defeat the Buckeyes by double-digits and cover the spread. Yes, the Buckeyes have an explosive offense, too. I would take Justin Fields over Alabama QB Mac Jones. The Crimson Tide's defense doesn't have as many dominant players as in the past few years, but their defense still is more talented than Clemson's in the line and secondary. So they are going to get some stops against Ohio State. I don't see Ohio State slowing down Alabama at all. Jones, running back Najee Harris and wide receiver DeVonta Smith were all Heisman Trophy finalists with Smith capturing the award. Smith caught 105 passes for 1,641 yards and 20 TD's. I've watched Alabama football since the days of Joe Namath being under center and I've never seen a Crimson Tide wide receiver have the season Smith had. Oh, yes, Alabama also has the best offensive line in college football even without injured stud center Landon Dickerson. This group is in the discussion for being the greatest O-line in Alabama history. Ohio State ranked just 56th in fewest yards per play and that was playing an easier schedule than Alabama. Just last year the Buckeyes ranked first in that category showing what a drop their defense has experienced this season.
01-10-21	Browns v. Steelers -5.5		48-37	Loss	-110	78 h 51 m	Show
Despite holding out eight starters, including Ben Roethlisberger, T.J. Watt and center Maurkice Pouncey, the Steelers nearly upset the Browns on the road this past Sunday losing 24-22 when Mason Rudolph threw an incomplete pass on a game-tying two point conversion try with 1:22 to play. Now the Steelers are rested and host the Browns, who they have beaten 17 straight times at home. This includes a 38-7 beatdown of the Browns back in October. Cleveland hasn't made the playoffs since 2002. Pittsburgh is far healthier than the Browns, who are dealing with multiple COVID issues. Denzel Ward, the Browns' best cornerback, has been sidelined with COVID. Head coach Kevin Stefanski won't be able to coach the game because of COVID. Olivier Vernon, the Browns' second-best pass rusher, is out after tearing his Achilles in Week 17. I question the Browns' maturity level and now their coaching without Stefanski. The Steelers have a far better defense than the Browns. I also trust Roethlisberger far more than Baker Mayfield, especially playing at Heinz Field where his lifetime splits have been far better at home than on the road. Pittsburgh led the NFL with 56 sacks. Watt is your probable Defensive Player of the Year after leading the NFL with 15 sacks. The Steelers also had 27 takeaways, second-most in the league, and gave up the third-fewest points at 19.5 per game. The line on this game has gone up. But I see the Steelers winning by at least a touchdown so it's worth getting involved.
01-10-21	Bears v. Saints -9.5	Top	9-21	Win	100	127 h 14 m	Show
The Bears couldn't do it at home last Sunday against the Packers.They weren't good enough. They aren't good enough to stay close either to the Saints. Chicago made the playoffs only because the league allowed one extra wild card berth this season. The Bears are who they are - an 8-8 team with a single victory against a playoff team. That was by one point against the Buccaneers when they hosted Tampa Bay in Week 5 on Thursday night. The Buccaneers weren't fully in sync then and 43-year-old Tom Brady had to play on a short week. Chicago's defense has regressed to just being slightly above average at best. I'm far from sold on the Bears' offense. Mitchell Trubisky was able to put up excellent numbers during the last quarter of the season because his opponents were the Lions, Texans, Vikings and Jaguars. Those are all bottom-six defenses. The Bears went 2-4 in their North Division. They were lucky to split with the Vikings and Lions, both of whom had terrible seasons. New Orleans swept its South Division, which was more competitive top-to-bottom than the NFC North. The Saints don't have any glaring weaknesses. They scored the fifth-most points and gave up the fifth-fewest points. The Saints have the best shot of any team in the NFC to take down the Packers and capture the NFC Conference championship. The Saints caught a huge break that this game is on Sunday. That extra day means Alvin Kamara will be eligible if he passes COVID protocols. The Saints also expect to get back Michael Thomas. He's an elite wide receiver. New Orleans still averaged 31.8 points in nine games without Thomas. I believe this will be Drew Brees' final season. The Saints really want to win the Super Bowl to close out his era. New Orleans is going to be highly motivated and likely to pour it on the overmatched Bears because of previous postseason failures that were caused in heart-breaking fashion. The Bears are this far on house money. It's house money they didn't earn, or deserve. Deep inside they know that after their Week 17 failure against the Packers. The Bears lack the quarterback, confidence and elite defense to hang with New Orleans.
01-09-21	Bucs v. Washington Football Team UNDER 45	Top	31-23	Loss	-115	54 h 56 m	Show
Alex Smith and Ron Rivera are great stories. This doesn't hide the fact, though, Washington is one of the worst offensive teams ever to make the playoffs. Washington hasn't broken the 23-point barrier during its last seven games. Only two teams averaged fewer yards per game than Washington, which is averaging 16 points the past three weeks. Until throwing two TD passes against the Eagles this past Sunday night, Smith hadn't thrown more than 1 TD pass in a game all season. Smith is a heady veteran. But he is and always has been a game manager. He also is limited by a calf injury so his mobility - one of the few pluses to his game - is going to be restricted. It's enough of a concern that Rivera has said Taylor Heinicke could see some action. Heinicke is a fourth-stringer who shouldn't even be on an NFL roster. Smith has always needed weapons around him. Washington doesn't have many. Its two best are WR Terry McLaurin, who is fighting through a high ankle sprain, and RB Antonio Gibson, who isn't 100 percent due to a toe injury. Tampa Bay finished second in run defense last season. They were No. 1 this season against the run. The Buccaneers' pass rush and secondary will be up to full strength if Devin White, one of the best linebackers in football, Shaquil Barrett and cornerback Carlton Davis all return. I think they all will, but even if they don't Washington isn't going to produce many points because of Tampa Bay's defensive depth and aggressive schemes of ace defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. Washington is worthy of respect strictly because of its defense, which gave up the second-fewest yards and fourth-fewest points. Washington also was second in pass defense. Washington has the pass rushers to bother Tom Brady, who did not fare well when he went up against better defenses this season. No team has scored more than 20 points against Washington during the last seven games.
01-03-21	Washington Football Team v. Eagles UNDER 44		20-14	Win	100	30 h 16 m	Show
The task for Washington is simple. Beat the 4-10-1 Eagles and Washington is in the playoffs. Washington has a top-five defense, but a weak offense with injuries to its best skill position players. So a conservative game plan of playing not to lose is justified in this instance for Washington. Jalen Hurts has been an improvement on shell-shocked Carson Wentz. Opponents, though, by now have plenty of game film on Hurts. He remains largely untested as a passer. The Eagles are going to be without their best offensive player, Miles Sanders. Deep threat DeSean Jackson also is out. So is Dallas Goedert, who has been their best tight end. Need I mention the Eagles long ago lost all of their best offensive linemen. I definitely see Washington's defensive line winning the battle of the trenches. On the Washington skill position side, Alex Smith, Antonio Gibson and Terry McLaurin are all questionable. That's Washington's best QB, RB and WR. All three would be limited if they were to play, especially McLaurin and Smith. The depleted Eagles secondary is vulnerable. Smith always has been a game-manager, though. If Smith can't play because of a calf injury than Taylor Heinicke would be under center for Washington. Heinicke makes Smith look like Brett Favre. Philadelphia has one of the better defensive coordinators in Jim Schwartz. The Eagles will be up for this home contest, which is the nationally televised Sunday Night Game. This is their Super Bowl for what has been a hugely disappointing season. Lots of running and short, safe passes should keep the clock moving in what I anticipate to be a highly-intense defensive battle played in the rain.
01-03-21	Jaguars v. Colts UNDER 50		14-28	Win	100	34 h 47 m	Show
The Colts defense isn't the elite unit it was earlier this season when they opened against five out of six mediocre-to-bad offenses. Their two major defensive statistics have shrunk from top-three to No. 8 in total yards and 12th in scoring defense. That's what can happen when during the last six games you've faced Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Tannehill, Deshaun Watson (twice), Derek Carr and Ben Roethlisberger. Now, though, the Colts draw the Jaguars. Jacksonville is averaging 13.6 points in its last three games going against the Titans, Ravens and Bears. I believe Gardner Minshew is Jacksonville's best QB. Doug Marrone disagrees. He's starting immobile journeyman Mike Glennon, who has done nothing to change the perception that he's strictly backup material - and that of the third-string kind. Glennon has a passer rating of just 75.4. He's averaging a paltry 5.9 yards per attempt and has as many interceptions as TD throws. Glennon would be hard-pressed to produce many points against a solid Colts defense if he had decent weapons - but he doesn't. The Jaguars will be without their star rookie running back James Robinson, their best wide receiver, D.J. Chark, and deep threat Collin Johnson. The Colts rank second in run defense, bad news for Jacksonville backup RB Dare Ogunbowale. The Colts are third in forced turnovers with 24. The Jaguars rank 27th in protecting the football having committed 24 turnovers. It's not so easy making the case against the Colts offense. I will say the Jaguars usually give an effort on defense. They do try. Joe Schobert and Myles Jack are excellent linebackers. But the main reason I don't believe the Colts are going to score a ton of points is game script. They won't need to. Indy shouldn't be threatened in this game. The Colts don't need to open things up, or play at a fast tempo. They can take advantage of Jacksonville's 30th-ranked run defense by riding workhorse Jonathan Taylor, who has averaged 20.3 carries in his last five games. Taylor is very good for the Under because he's a between-the-tackles power runner. The Colts lost star offensive left tackle Anthony Castonzo to an ankle injury. This is bad news for 39-year-old Philip Rivers, who never was mobile even in his youth. The Colts surrendered 11 sacks in 749 snaps when Castonzo has been in the lineup. They've allowed 10 sacks in 274 snaps without Castonzo. So there's no reason for the Colts - with their season on the line - to take chances against an overmatched opponent when they can just ride Taylor while milking the clock.
01-03-21	Titans -7.5 v. Texans		41-38	Loss	-104	33 h 26 m	Show
Houston's season was finished before Halloween. Now the nightmarish 2020 year concludes for the Texans against Tennessee, one of only three teams in the NFL to average 30 points. The Texans' bottom-five defense isn't going to be able to stop a high-powered Titans squad that is in must-win mode. Houston not only lacks the run defense to contain Derrick Henry, but doesn't have the defensive backfield speed to keep Ryan Tannehill from picking it apart throwing to wide receiving studs A.J. Brown and Corey Davis. Henry has averaged 187 all-purpose yards with five TD's in his last three games against the Texans. Tannehill's numbers against Houston in the last three games are 67 percent completions, 8.7 YPA and an 8-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Titans were slowed down at Green Bay last week because of snowy conditions. That's not going to be the case here in Houston's temperature-controlled venue. Houston's morale has to be questioned. The Texans have lost four in a row, including falling, 37-31, to the Bengals at home last week. A Bengal offense devoid of Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd produced 540 yards against Houston. That's enough to cause serious chemistry and confidence issues for any defense. It's scary to think how many points the Titans can put up against the Texans. Deshaun Watson is pitted against that, expected by the oddsmaker to exchange enough points with the Titans to keep Houston's loss to around a touchdown. How? The Texans rank 30th in rushing. They are missing two of their three best wide receivers. Their tight ends are dreadful and their best blocker, left tackle Laremy Tunsil, is out with an ankle injury. The Titans' defense isn't very good, but it doesn't need to be very good to tee off on Watson since they are likely to be playing with a lead throughout. Oh, yes, Watson is banged-up with a sore elbow and arm. Even as clueless a coach as Romeo Crennel is, he has to realize he can't risk his franchise QB if the Titans should get way in front. So it wouldn't be shocking if Watson didn't even finish this game.
01-03-21	Raiders v. Broncos OVER 51		32-31	Win	100	33 h 20 m	Show
I'm eagerly anticipating a no-pressure, let-it-all hang out shootout between two bad defensive teams in this Las Vegas-Denver meaningless finale. Unpredictable January Denver weather won't be a spoiler to the offensive fireworks as the forecast is for temperatures in the high 40s with very little wind. Jon Gruden hasn't been able to solve the Raiders' defensive woes since coming back as their coach three seasons ago. The Raiders were horrible again on defense this season ranking 29th in scoring defense. They've allowed 34.2 points per game in their last six games. If you discount a bad weather game in Cleveland where the wind made it nearly impossible to pass, the Raiders have permitted at least 26 points in 11 of their last 12 games. Denver's defensive woes have been a far greater surprise. The Broncos haven't given up this many points in 10 years. A combination of a cluster injury problem in the defensive line and the offense committing the most turnovers in the league by a large margin have mainly been responsible for this. The Broncos aren't going anywhere until they find out if Drew Lock is their QB answer. Right now Lock hasn't shown he is. But what I like about Lock is he's not content to be a game-manager. He attacks and he has decent weapons with Melvin Gordon, Jerry Jeudy and Noah Fant. This could prove to be a pivotal game in Lock's career and the Broncos' franchise. Lock has a golden opportunity here against a bottom-five defense.
01-03-21	Cardinals v. Rams +3		7-18	Win	100	26 h 22 m	Show
Sean McVay may have picked up a few critics since the Rams' Super Bowl loss to the Patriots two seasons ago. I'm not one of them. The Rams have a far better defense than the Cardinals and McVay had an entire week to prepare fill-in QB John Wolford and devise a suitable game plan. Losing Jared Goff is a negative. Goff, though, isn't an elite quarterback. He's slightly above average - and that's with a clean pocket and being in a warm-weather site. The Rams lose experience and downfield passing with the drop from Goff to Wolford. But they gain far more quarterback mobility. McVay is one of the top play-callers in the NFL. I'm confident he will put Wolford in a position to succeed. The Rams won't have their top wide receiver Cooper Kupp, or probably two of their three best running backs. They still provide plenty of receiving weapons for Wolford with Robert Woods, Josh Reynolds, underrated rookie Van Jefferson and one of the better tight end duos in the NFL, Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett. The Cardinals have sprung a leak with their run defense due in part to injuries. 49ers backup running back Jeff Wilson rushed for 183 yards against them last week. Arizona has permitted 5.2 yards per run during the past four games. Effective running by the Rams can set up Wolford. At best, the Cardinals' defense is mediocre. They rank 15th in scoring defense. LA's defense could be the best in the NFL ranking first in total yards and pass defense while giving up the third-fewest points at 19.3 per game. Kyler Murray needs to run and roam free for the Cardinals to have success. Murray is hampered by a lower-body injury. He also has to deal with the monstrous Aaron Donald, the NFC's sack leader with 13 1/2. Murry relies on the magnificent DeAndre Hopkins. However, Hopkins isn't 100 percent either and he has his own defensive demon to content with - shutdown cornerback Jalen Ramsey. So the outstanding Rams defense is well equipped to deal with the Cardinals' offensive strengths. Murry is 0-3 lifetime against the Rams, who have held him to a 57 percent completion rate, 5.8 YPA, a 5-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and only an average of 14 yards rushing per game. McVay has never lost to the Cardinals posting a 7-0 SU, 6-0-1 ATS record versus Arizona. The Rams have beaten the Cardinals by an average of three touchdowns. The Rams wouldn't need to win this game to earn a playoff spot if the Bears lose to the Packers. However, that game starts the same time as this matchup so the Rams will be assured of having their full focus and going all out.
01-03-21	Seahawks -6.5 v. 49ers	Top	26-23	Loss	-112	33 h 11 m	Show
Look, I greatly respect the coaching staff of the 49ers especially Kyle Shanahan and defensive coordinator Robert Saleh. But the 49ers are out of gas both physically and mentally. It's difficult to keep a team together that misses the playoffs after reaching the Super Bowl the previous season and has the longest injury list in the league. San Francisco is 2-6 in its last eight games with every loss during this span coming by at least eight points. Seattle is coming on especially its defense, which has surrendered the fewest points in the league during the last seven weeks. The Seahawks draw third-string QB C.J. Beathard, who is 2-14 in his 16 NFL appearances. He has a career mark of 17 touchdowns and 23 turnovers while being sacked 43 times. Seattle has the most sacks in the NFL since Week 8. Superstar safety Jamal Adams already has set a single season sack mark for a safety. Aside from tight end George Kittle, Beathard doesn't have his top receiving weapons with Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel ruled out. San Francisco is missing some of its top offensive linemen, too, including left tackle Trent Williams. The 49ers' pop-gun, conservative ground-based attack isn't going to produce many points and will be helpless if the Seahawks jump to a big lead, which I anticipate. Seattle has held its past five foes to an average of 12.2 points. Defensively the 49ers not only are missing multiple linemen - as they have all season - but have a cluster injury problem in their secondary. Cornerbacks K'Waun Williams and spiritual leader and warrior Richard Sherman are out. Emmanuel Mosely is questionable. Russell Wilson fired 4 TD passes in the Seahawks' 37-27 Week 8 victory against San Francisco. The Seahawks still have an outside shot at earning the NFC's top seed. So they aren't going to lack incentive.
01-03-21	Steelers +10.5 v. Browns		22-24	Win	100	31 h 33 m	Show
I get why the Browns are such heavy favorites. I just don't trust them even though the Steelers will be sitting a number of starters, including Ben Roethlisberger and T.J. Watt, who probably will be named Defensive Player of the Year. How proven and mature are the Browns in must-win spots when they are heavy chalk? How sharp is first-year Browns coach Kevin Stefanski when he had Baker Mayfield launch 53 passes against the Jets last week when his team was missing their top four wide receivers and had all inexperienced wideouts? How in sync will the Browns be having to deal with a heavy dose of COVID issues the past couple of weeks? As it is, the Browns will be minus their top cornerback, Denzel Ward, along with several other players due to COVID. Cleveland is expected to get back two key offensive linemen, Wyatt Teller and Jedrick Wills. But that's not a given. Wills was supposed to play last week, but was a last-minute scratch. The Steelers are still the Steelers, a well-coached team with a lot of pride that could earn the No. 2 seed in the AFC with a win and a Bills loss to the Dolphins. Pittsburgh is 22-8-2 ATS the past 32 times as an underdog for a long-term percentage of 73 percent in that role. Cleveland is 2-5 ATS the past seven times as favorites this season. Mason Rudolph proved to be a stiff when called upon last season. I joked that Myles Garrett made a huge mistake by trying to injure Rudolph knocking him out of the game. Rudolph, in his third season, is said to be improved. Certainly he's not going to lack motivation. If I were a member of the Steelers, I would take it as an insult that Stefanski named Garrett team captain for this game after Garrett's reprehensible helmet-hitting actions against Rudolph last season. These teams don't exactly love each other. Bottom line for the Browns is they need to win. But they don't need to win by double-digits.
12-31-20	West Virginia -6.5 v. Army	Top	24-21	Loss	-116	23 h 39 m	Show
Army received it's wish to play in a bowl game. Sometimes it's not good, though, to get what you wish. The Black Knights draw West Virginia in the Liberty Bowl. The Mountaineers are a bad fit for Army. The Black Knights had an outstanding season going 9-2, including highly-satisfying victories against rivals Navy and Air Force. But West Virginia is the wrong bowl opponent for them. Army is entirely dependent on running the ball averaging just 36 yards passing a game. Only four teams allowed fewer yards per game than West Virginia. The Mountaineers have a very stout run defense allowing 3.8 yards per rush. They have a pair of NFL defensive line draft prospects in the Stills brothers, Darius and Dante. The Black Knights' glittering 9-2 record doesn't look so shiny on closer examination as three of their victories were against FCS foes Abilene Christian, Citadel and Mercer. Another was against 0-10 Louisiana Monroe. They nipped Georgia Southern by one point. Army's losses came against Cincinnati, 24-10, and to Tulane, 38-12. Those two foes are more in line with the caliber of West Virginia. It's disconcerting to Army that it has been held to 15 points or fewer in three of its last four games. West Virginia faced much better opposition being in the Big 12 Conference. The Mountaineers defeated TCU and lost on the road to Texas by just four points. Unlike Army, West Virginia has a balanced attack. Army didn't face too many passing teams. West Virginia QB Jarret Doege isn't Trevor Lawrence, but he threw for more than 200 yards in every game and has a 13-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Running back Leddie Brown is a good all-purpose back who rushed for nearly 1,000 yards while averaging 5.3 yards per carry. The Mountaineers are the fresher team. They last played on Dec. 5 giving them ample time to game plan for Army's triple option attack. Army beat Navy on Dec. 12 and then followed that up by defeating Air Force on Dec. 19. Those were the biggest games on the Black Knights' schedule. So they might actually be in letdown mode despite this being a bowl game. Army also will be in big trouble if it has to play from behind lacking any semblance of a passing attack.
12-30-20	Wisconsin -7 v. Wake Forest	Top	42-28	Win	100	29 h 52 m	Show
Wisconsin has a far superior defense than Wake Forest. The question with the Badgers is producing enough scoring to cover this touchdown spread. I see that happening against a weak Wake Forest defense and with highly-talented freshman Badgers QB Graham Mertz returning to his pre-COVID-19 form. The Badgers haven't landed a highly rated freshman quarterback like Mertz in well maybe forever. Mertz was living up to the hype, too, with a combined 7-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio during the Badgers' first two games - blowout victories against Illinois and Michigan. Then Mertz contracted COVID and Wisconsin's offense went into the tank. Mertz is past the illness now. He doesn't have the skill position weapons of previous Wisconsin teams, but the Badgers have another strong offensive line and running back depth. The Badgers led the nation in time of possession. They also are facing a Demon Deacon defense that allows 31.6 points a game and ranks 107th in total defense. Mertz can pick his spots against a highly vulnerable Wake Forest secondary. Wake Forest wins with its offense. But the Demon Deacons haven't encountered a defense like Wisconsin's. The Badgers give up the fewest yards per game in the nation and rank sixth in scoring defense holding foes to 15.6 points a game. They rank rank sixth in run defense and seventh in pass defense. Sam Hartman is a good, but not a great quarterback. He plays behind a leaky offensive line that allowed an average of 3.2 sacks per game. Wisconsin is 4-1 in bowl games under Paul Chryst. The Badgers' lone bowl defeat under Chryst came last season when they were nipped, 28-27, by Justin Herbert's Oregon team in the Rose Bowl. No shame in that especially seeing how great Herbert has been in the NFL. The Badgers missed games early in the season because of COVID-19 issues. But their season hasn't been nearly as disrupted as Wake Forest's has. The Badgers have played five games in the last six weeks. They defeated Minnesota in their last game on Dec. 19. Wake Forest has only played once since Nov. 14 and that was a horrible 45-21 loss to Louisville on Dec. 12. The Demon Deacons haven't won since October. They played the fewest games of any ACC team this season.
12-27-20	Titans v. Packers UNDER 54		14-40	Push	0	11 h 19 m	Show
Sure on paper this game shapes up to be high-scoring. The Titans lead the NFL averaging 31.1 points per game. The Packers are right next to them averaging 31 points. But there is more than just statistics at work here starting with the weather. There is a 90 percent chance of snow. Temperatures for this night game are going to be in the high teens and the wind will be blowing at 10-to-20 mph. Those are far from plus conditions for quarterbacks especially for warm-weather QB Ryan Tannehill. The Titans figure to stay on the ground a lot as Green Bay's run defense is worse than its pass defense. That's going to eat a lot of clock. The Packers' defense has been much better at home. Green Bay has held its seven home opponents to an average of 20.2 points a game. Green Bay could manage just three points on a 51-yard field goal by Mason Crosby in the second half of its game against Carolina last week. The Packers figure to run the ball more than normal, too, considering the conditions. Plodding rookie running back AJ Dillon could see his first extended action with Jamaal Williams doubtful due to a quad injury. That would be an added bonus for the Under.