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Football Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
12-27-20	Browns -9.5 v. Jets	Top	16-23	Loss	-110	79 h 24 m	Show
Cleveland's Kevin Stefanski has turned in one of the best coaching jobs in the NFL this season. The 10-4 Browns are in line to make the playoffs for the first time since 2002. They have a chance to win the AFC North trailing the slumping Steelers by one game. Cleveland hosts Pittsburgh next week. The Browns are far superior to the Jets in talent and coaching. But could the Browns get caught peeking ahead to their showdown against the Steelers against such a lowly opponent? That happened last Sunday to the Rams. They were upset by the Jets a week before meeting the Seahawks for an NFC West Division showdown. It won't happen to the Browns, though. The Jets' shocking victory against the Rams sets up this handicap to Cleveland in two respects: The Browns won't take the Jets lightly after seeing what happened to the Rams and the Jets are fat and happy now that they won't go winless. The Browns also know they must come in with a strong effort because they will be short-handed down their top four wide receivers and linebackers B.J. Goodson and Jacob Phillip due to COVID-19. I made this play before the news broke on Saturday about these six players being out. This would not be my NFL Game of the Year if I would have known that. However, I still very much like the Browns to cover this number. Not only has the line dropped because of this news, giving the Browns more value, but also Cleveland has the right scheme to deal effectively without their top wide receivers. The Browns use more three tight end sets than any other NFL team with Austin Hooper, Harrison Bryant and David Njoku. Any one of these three could start for some NFL teams. Kareem Hunt is a very strong receiver out of the backfield. The Browns can deal without experienced wideouts because they are heavily ground-oriented with two outstanding running backs. Baker Mayfield relies on the run to set up his play-action. Cleveland is the No. 3 rushing team in the league. Nick Chubb and Hunt could be the best running back duo in the league. The Jets are decent in only one area - run defense. However, New York just lost its best player, defensive lineman Quinnen Williams. He's out for the season after suffering a neck injury. So the Browns shouldn't have a problem running, especially with Mayfield playing his finest ball of the season. Mayfield has a 10-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last four games while averaging more than 300 yards passing during this span. The Jets have surrendered 30 TD passes. The Jets rank last in yards, passing yards and scoring at 14.7 points per game. The Browns have their best cornerback, Denzel Ward, back healthy. Sam Darnold has a pathetic 6-to-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Linebacker Mack Wilson is a capable replacement for Goodson. Many teams have multiple injuries at this late juncture of the season. The Jets are no exception. This is what Jets coach Adam Gase was quoted as saying, "We're running thin, those practice squad guys will get an opportunity this week." How good can the Jets' practice squad players be when they couldn't beat out the least talented starters/backups in the league?
12-26-20	Liberty v. Coastal Carolina UNDER 59.5	Top	37-34	Loss	-107	16 h 0 m	Show
What we have in this Cure Bowl matchup of Liberty versus Coastal Carolina is two strong defensive teams going against slow-tempo, run-oriented offenses. So I find this total excessively high. Liberty gives up the seventh-fewest yards and 10th-fewest passing yards in the nation. The Flames have held their foes to an average of 19.2 points per game. Coastal Carolina has been even stingier limiting their opponents to just 18.7 points a game. The Chanticleers could take advantage of a rusty Liberty offense as the Flames last played back on Nov. 27 and that game was against the worst Division I team in college football, Massachusetts. Both teams ranked among the bottom 30 in college football in terms of pace.
12-26-20	49ers v. Cardinals -5	Top	20-12	Loss	-107	59 h 15 m	Show
The Cardinals beat the 49ers, 24-20, back in Week 1 when San Francisco was healthy. Now the 49ers are decimated by injuries and demoralized following a 41-33 loss to the Cowboys last week that eliminated them from playoff contention one season after reaching the Super Bowl. Oh, yes, San Francisco is down to third-string QB C.J. Beathard. Care to know the 49ers' record in Beathard's previous 15 appearances, including 11 starts? It's 1-14. The 49ers are well-coached, but they can't overcome probably the highest and most significant injury list in the league. The 49ers have committed multiple turnovers in eight consecutive games due to sloppy quarterback play. San Francisco is 1-6 SU and ATS in its last seven games. All of the defeats have been by at least eight points. It's obvious the 49ers are out of fuel at this late stage. Not so for the 8-6 Cardinals who are battling for a playoff spot. They rank third in the NFL in yards per game and are 13th in total defense. Sparked by Kyler Murray, the Cardinals have produced 30 or more points in six of their last 10 games.
12-25-20	Vikings v. Saints OVER 50	Top	33-52	Win	100	36 h 33 m	Show
Quarterbacks usually get the most attention. But this matchup features the two best all-purpose running backs in the NFL, Dalvin Cook and Alvin Kamara. The Vikings have racked up at least 27 points in six of their last eight games. Only four teams have produced more yards than Minnesota. New Orleans' defense has seen some slippage during the last two weeks. The Saints' defense also carries a heavy fatigue rating. They were on the field for a staggering 98 snaps against the Chiefs last Sunday. They catch a bad break that this game is on Friday afternoon giving them much less rest time. The Saints are going to get their points against a ravaged Vikings defense that showed nine players on the injury report. Minnesota's best defensive player, linebacker Eric Kendricks, is expected to miss his third straight game because of a lingering calf injury. A decimated defensive line, linebacker injuries and inexperienced cornerbacks have caused a steep decline in the Vikings' defense this season. Minnesota just surrendered 33 points to a Mitch Trubisky-led Bears offense last week. The Vikings dealt the Saints brutal playoff losses in two of the last three seasons. So Sean Payton won't be adverse to running up a score if the Saints should break way ahead. Drew Brees should also be far more effective having gotten the rust off last week. Playing on carpet inside a dome is another plus for the Over.
12-24-20	Hawaii +11.5 v. Houston	Top	28-14	Win	100	25 h 41 m	Show
This has been a college football season like no other. Houston certainly can attest to that. The Cougars had eight games postponed/canceled/rescheduled because of COVID-19. They have played just once since Nov. 14 -and that was a 30-27 loss to Memphis as 7-point road favorites. Originally scheduled to be played in New Mexico, this bowl game is now being played in Frisco, Texas, which is near Dallas. Hawaii is excited to come to the mainland and play. It's only their second bowl game outside of Hawaii in 28 years. Houston isn't nearly as excited. The Cougars could be down up to 20 players because of opt outs, COVID-19 issues and academic ineligibilities. Houston has been particularly hard hit on defense. Sacks leader Payton Turner, tackles leader Grant Stuard and linebacker Terrance Edgeston all are out. Because of this the Cougars shouldn't be double-digit favorites. I don't like the track record of Cougars coach Dana Holgorsen in bowl games. He's 0-6 ATS in his last six bowl games dating back to when he was coaching at West Virginia. Hawaii is from the Mountain West Conference while Houston comes out of the American Athletic Conference. AAC teams went into Wednesday 0-2 in bowl games with Tulane losing as a short favorite to Nevada and Central Florida getting blown out by BYU. Note that Hawaii defeated Nevada, 24-21, on Nov. 28. The Rainbow Warriors don't have the high-powered attack of past seasons. But neither does Houston. The Rainbow Warriors do have a balanced attack and haven't lost the turnover battle in their past five games.
12-23-20	Florida Atlantic +9.5 v. Memphis	Top	10-25	Loss	-116	13 h 54 m	Show
I'll take these many points with a much superior Florida Atlantic defense against a Memphis squad that doesn't win bowl games, nor cover games. Memphis has a potent offense. However, Florida Atlantic gives up the ninth-fewest points in the nation and ranks 17th in sacks. Only twice in eight games did the Owls surrender more than 24 points. The Tigers failed to cover in any of the four games they were favored against Division I foes. They scored only 10 points versus Navy and 21 against Tulane in two of their past three games. Memphis has lost straight-up and failed to cover each of the last five years in its bowl games, too. Florida Atlantic has a balanced attack. I don't think the gap is nearly this wide as the point spread indicates. It wouldn't surprise me if the Owls pulled an outright upset. Of Memphis' seven victories, five of them were by a combined eight points.
12-22-20	Tulane v. Nevada +2.5		27-38	Win	100	18 h 37 m	Show
This is a bad matchup for Tulane. The Green Wave of New Orleans are making a long journey into cold weather where the temperature is going to be in the 20's and the winds will be flapping at 15-25 mph. Nevada is well familiar with the special blue turf and field conditions in Boise State's home stadium, site of the Potato Bowl. The Wolf Pack have a monster passing edge with Carson Strong, the best quarterback in the Mountain West Conference. He led the conference in completions, completion percentage, TD's and passing yards. Strong has two all-conference receiving targets in wide receiver Romeo Doubs and tight end Cole Turner. The Wolf Pack also have all-conference placekicker Brandon Talton. Tulane could be down three starting defensive linemen with two of its starters definitely ruled out. The Green Wave struggled against strong passing opponents. Central Florida put up 51 points on Tulane while Houston scored 49 points on the Green Wave. The Green Wave are run-oriented, but that's Nevada's defensive strength. Tulane lost its up-and-coming offensive coordinator, Will Hall. He left to become head coach at Southern Mississippi. Tulane's defensive coordinator was fired so the Green Wave are without both of their coordinators.
12-21-20	North Texas v. Appalachian State UNDER 68.5		28-56	Loss	-110	3 h 58 m	Show
This total keeps getting pushed up higher. It's high enough now where I'm going to get involved in the Under. Yes, Appalachian State is going to produce a lot of points with an offense that averages 31.8 points and is facing a weak North Texas defense. But it takes scoring from both teams to go above a total this big. I don't see North Texas contributing its share of points. The Mountaineers have held opponents to 19.3 points a game. They rank 12th in fewest yards allowed at 312 a game. North Texas won't have its starting quarterback, Austin Aune, nor its most dynamic player, wide receiver Jaelon Darden, who set a school record with 19 TD catches this season.
12-20-20	Bears v. Vikings OVER 46.5		33-27	Win	100	99 h 49 m	Show
Kirk Cousins has played extremely well during his last seven games completing 69.8 percent of his passes, throwing for 1,823 yards, averaging 8.1 yards per attempt and tossing 16 TD passes with just two interceptions during this span. The Bears' defense has regressed. Their secondary isn't nearly as good as it was earlier in the season. Meanwhile the Bears' offense has looked good the past two games since Mitchell Trubisky came back. David Montgomery is playing his finest ball averaging 7.4 yards a carry during his last three games. Trubisky has Montgomery to rely on and an underrated receiving corps headed by the superb Allen Robinson. The Vikings have given up 26 TD passes, fifth-most in the NFL, and they have the eighth fewest sacks. So Trubisky should have continued success. Playing indoors on carpet should just enhance these two hot offenses.
12-20-20	Texans v. Colts -7		20-27	Push	0	99 h 47 m	Show
The Texans' season was really done when Bill O'Brien foolishly gave away DeAndre Hopkins. Deshaun Watson is doing the best he can but he has no ingredients. The Texans are one of the five-worst teams in the NFL. They rank last in rushing and second to last in stopping the run. They also give up the second-most yards. The Colts dominate the trenches in this matchup. Jonathan Taylor and Philip Rivers are in line for huge games. The Texans lost their nose tackle, Brandon Dunn, and are minus their top cornerback, Bradley Roby to suspension. The Texans have allowed 25 TD passes with just three interceptions while surrendering the highest passer rating in the league. The teams met just two weeks ago and the Texans managed to hang in losing, 26-20. Since then the Texans have lost Will Fuller and Roby. Now this game has become far more of a mismatch than this spread shows. I expect Indy to win by double-digits.
12-20-20	Seahawks -6 v. Washington Football Team		20-15	Loss	-109	47 h 53 m	Show
Washington's defense has been playing well. But so has Seattle's. The Seahawks' defense has been below the radar giving up just 16.2 points in their last five games. Seattle draws Washington minus Alex Smith and probably without Antonio Gibson. That means Washington is without its top quarterback and best running back. Russell Wilson versus Dwayne Haskins is a monster mismatch. I have far more faith in Wilson and the Seahawks' offense than in Washington's offense especially with Haskins under center.
12-19-20	Arizona State v. Oregon State +7		46-33	Loss	-100	31 h 36 m	Show
Oregon State beat Arizona State at home last season and the Beavers can do it again this season even if their star running back, Jermar Jefferson, can't play because of an ankle injury. It's an added plus if Jefferson can play after suffering the injury last Saturday. The Beavers and UCLA were the only two Pac-12 schools not to have their schedule and routine thrown out of whack because of COVID-19. Oregon State has played six games going 2-4. Note that all but one of those defeats came by six points or fewer. Arizona State is 1-2. The Sun Devils are off a monster win against in-state and Pac-12 rival Arizona, 70-7, last week. That victory left the Sun Devils feeling very smug and satisfied. It puts them in a potential letdown spot. Oregon State has been competitive all season. The Beavers are well-coached by Jonathan Smith. They have covered four of their last five games.
12-19-20	Arizona State v. Oregon State UNDER 55		46-33	Loss	-110	21 h 6 m	Show
There are many reasons to like this total Under. A main one being weather. The forecast is a 100 percent chance of rain with wind in the 10-20 mph range. Arizona State's offensive statistics are skewed from last week's 70-point performance against mistake-prone Arizona. The Sun Devils' offense isn't nearly that good and they are not up-tempo. The Sun Devils hold opponents to 20 points a game, which is the best in the Pac-12. Oregon State is down two of their starting wide receivers, Trevon Bradford and Champ Flemings. The Beavers' star running back, Jermar Jefferson, is questionable with an ankle injury sustained last week. Oregon State figures to run the ball a lot with or without Jefferson.
12-19-20	Bills -6.5 v. Broncos	Top	48-19	Win	100	78 h 18 m	Show
The Bills are coming together as an elite team with their defense playing much better. Buffalo was very strong defensively the previous three seasons. However the Bills began this year slowly giving up 26.5 points during their first 10 games. But following their Week 11 bye, the Bills have yielded 18.7 points in their last three games. Denver has scored 21 or fewer points in six of Drew Lock's last nine starts. Lock has been picked off 13 times during this span. Josh Allen has turned the corner in this his third NFL season. He has accounted for 35 TD's proving to be both a throwing and running threat. The Broncos are without their best pass rusher, Von Miller, and have a cluster injury problem in their secondary minus their two top cornerbacks, suspended A.J. Bouye, and injured Bryce Callahan. Denver also is without injured cornerback Duke Dawson.
12-19-20	Ole Miss -115 v. LSU		48-53	Loss	-115	24 h 1 m	Show
LSU had its signature victory upsetting Florida, 37-34, as a monster underdog last week. The Tigers were very fortunate to win that game since they were outgained by nearly 200 yards and gave up 8.9 yards per play while having just 4.9 yards per play. The Tigers are in a huge letdown spot and have nothing to play for since they have a self-imposed bowl ban. The Tigers will put up plenty of points, but I don't see them keeping up with Mississippi. The Rebels are averaging 39.8 points and rank third in the nation in total yards. LSU allows 33.4 points and is 127th in the country in total defense. The Rebels will be the far fresher team having last played on Nov. 28. They have had plenty of time to study and prepare for this matchup and unlike LSU they are not in letdown spot.
12-18-20	Nebraska v. Rutgers +6.5	Top	28-21	Loss	-104	38 h 33 m	Show
On the surface this game doesn't hold much interest. Nebraska is 2-5 enduring another disappointing season under Scott Frost. Rutgers is 3-5. But the game actually means something to Rutgers because the Scarlet Knights has never won more than three Big 10 games since joining the conference in 2014. "This Nebraska game is everything," Rutgers coach Greg Schiano said. Schiano has done a nice job with the Scarlet Knights. The game means more to them than the Cornhuskers. I also believe Rutgers is the better team. Nebraska averages just 22.4 points. The Cornhuskers have been favored twice - and lost straight-up both times to Illinois and to Minnesota last week. Nebraska has had multiple turnovers in five of its seven games. Rutgers leads the Big 10 in tackles for losses. Rutgers has defeated Michigan State, Purdue and Maryland. All of those wins came on the road, too.
12-17-20	Chargers v. Raiders OVER 53	Top	30-27	Win	100	19 h 39 m	Show
I'm expecting an entertaining shootout in this matchup. The Chargers' defense hasn't lived up to expectations. LA ranks 26th in scoring defense giving up 27.8 points. Losing star safety Derwin James before the season was a cruel blow to the Chargers' secondary, which hasn't been helped by cornerback Casey Hayward having a terrible season. Derek Carr finally has gotten comfortable in Jon Gruden's complicated offense producing his finest season. The Raiders have an above average offense. They have scored at least 31 points in more than half of their games. This includes a 31-26 victory against the Chargers on Nov. 8. That game produced 57 points and came close to putting up a combined 63 points because a 4-yard Chargers TD pass on the final play was reversed on replay. The Raiders' offensive line is healthy again. Tackle Trent Brown can keep Joey Bosa from bothering Carr. Rod Marinelli is the Raiders' new defensive coordinator after Gruden fired Paul Guenther Sunday night. I like Marinelli more as a defensive line coach rather than coordinator. He catches a bad break that his first game as coordinator falls on a short week and the Raiders will be down four defensive starters - strong safety Johnathan Abram, linebacker Nicholas Morrow, lineman Clelin Ferrell and cornerback Damon Arnette. Morrow has been the Raiders' best defensive player the past few weeks. Abram is a far-ranging safety and an emotional leader. Only two teams permit more points per game than the Raiders, who surrender 30.1. Las Vegas ranks 25th in total defense and has only 15 sacks in 13 games. Justin Herbert should be able to do a lot of damage with a clean pocket and passing against an extremely banged-up secondary that also is missing starting safety Jeff Heath. He went on injured reserve last week due to a concussion. I expect Keenan Allen and Austi Ekeler to play. Their injuries are not serious. Herbert has the talent, weapons and weak opposing defense to have a huge game.
12-13-20	Steelers v. Bills -2.5		15-26	Win	100	103 h 52 m	Show
Sparked by Josh Allen, who has accounted for 33 TD's, the Bills have a top-10 offense. Now the Bills' defense is coming around to where it was during the previous three seasons when it was one of the league's best. Buffalo's pass defense has a 7-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio in its last six games after giving up 12 TD throws with just two interceptions during the first six games. As the Bills become a more complete team, the Steelers are regressing. This isn't surprising since Pittsburgh had won six games by an average of 4.8 points. The Steelers' ground game has gone from mediocre to one of the worst in the league and their defense has been hit hard by multiple linebacker injuries. Losing Devin Bush and Bud Dupree really hurts their pass coverage. Both teams played on Monday, but the Steelers have to make the journey to upstate New York and will be playing for the third time in 11 days. The Bills defeated the Steelers, 17-10, at Pittsburgh last season and Buffalo is better this season.
12-13-20	Washington Football Team v. 49ers -3		23-15	Loss	-120	99 h 43 m	Show
Fresh off upsetting Pittsburgh, Washington has to travel on a short week and in a rare letdown spot. The 49ers also were in action on Monday, but have a far less journey. San Francisco also has more experience playing in Arizona. Playing there isn't so bad for the 49ers considering they were 1-4 at Levi's Stadium this season. The 49ers are far from full strength, but they are getting healthier each week. San Francisco is extremely well-coached on both sides of the ball and are very familiar with Alex Smith. Washington is likely to be without its best running back, Antonio Gibson. He's dealing with turf toe. This non-division game holds a lot of meaning to Kyle Shanahan. He and his father, Mike, were fired by Washington owners Daniel Synder. The 49ers shut out Washington, 9-0, last season and Kyle Shanahan awarded the game ball from that win to his father.
12-13-20	Colts -2.5 v. Raiders		44-27	Win	100	99 h 31 m	Show
The Raiders are the only team that can claim victories against the Chiefs and Saints. But Las Vegas also is capable of losing to any team. The Raiders needed a late long TD pass to nip the winless Jets last week and two weeks ago were blown out by the 4-8 Falcons, 43-6. Derek Carr is the Raiders' focal point if Josh Jacobs remains out with an ankle injury. Carr is having a good season, but I would take the Colts defense over him. The Colts give up the fifth-fewest yards, the third-fewest TD passes and have the fourth-best defensive passer rating. Philip Rivers is not a mobile QB and the Colts have offensive line injuries. But the Raiders are tied for the third-fewest sacks in the NFL with 15. The Raiders are well below average in all of the major defensive categories, including ranking 28th in scoring defense allowing 28.9 points per game. This figure would be even higher if the Raiders didn't hold the Browns to six points in a game heavily impacted by bad weather and gusting winds. I see the Colts as a well-coached, professional team with a good defense that rarely beats itself. The Raiders can't make that claim. They are too undisciplined and inconsistent.
12-13-20	Texans v. Bears +1.5		7-36	Win	100	95 h 29 m	Show
I'll take the superior Bears defense and home field to trump Deshaun Watson. Only 11 teams have surrendered fewer points than the Bears. The Texans defense ranks 30th in yards and 31st in rushing yards. Chicago's ground attack has picked up the past several weeks with David Montgomery playing well. Mitch Trubisky gives the Bears a mobility factor they didn't have with Nick Foles. Trubisky is turnover-prone, but the Texans have the fewest takeaways in the league. Allen Robinson provides the Bears with the best wide receiver on the field. Watson's numbers go way down when he doesn't have Will Fuller, who is suspended. The Texans also are without Kenny Stills and Randall Cobb, too. Brandin Cooks is the Texans' best receiver left and he's questionable with a concussion. Pass defense is a Bears strength. Watson can't rely on the Texans' last-ranked ground attack.
12-13-20	Chiefs -7 v. Dolphins	Top	33-27	Loss	-110	95 h 15 m	Show
Brian Flores is a leading contender to win Coach of the Year honors as somehow the Dolphins are 8-4. But I see them getting exposed here by the Chiefs. Miami's talent level, especially on offense, can't compare to the Chiefs. The Dolphins haven't broken 20 points in their last three games and that's going against the Broncos, Jets and Bengals. They've faced some bad quarterbacks during their last eight games: Brandon Allen, Ryan Finley, Sam Darnold, Drew Lock, Joe Flacco and C.J. Beathard. Now the Dolphins get Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City has won seven in a row. Mahomes' numbers during this win streak are 71.5 percent completions for 2,341 yards and an 18-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Rookie Tua Tagovailoa can't keep up. His statistics look better than how he has played. We're not talking about Justin Herbert or Joe Burrow here. The Dolphins lost to the Broncos three weeks ago. Kansas City beat Denver twice winning by an average of 16.5 points. Kansas City has won its last 11 road/neutral site games. The Chiefs have covered 67 percent during the past 19 times they've been chalk.
12-12-20	San Diego State v. BYU UNDER 49.5		14-28	Win	100	66 h 14 m	Show
San Diego State completely shut down Zach Wilson and BYU's offense last season in a 13-3 home victory. While I highly doubt the Aztecs hold the Cougars to three points this time, I do expect a low-scoring game with BYU struggling to solve San Diego State's defense again. The Cougars were held 17 points in losing to Coastal Carolina this past Saturday. San Diego State has better defensive numbers than Coastal Carolina ranking eighth in scoring defense giving up 16.3 points and third in total defense holding foes to 269.1 yards. The Under is 9-1-1 in the Aztecs' last 11 road games. Wilson draws a lot of media attention, but BYU has a strong defense allowing just 14.7 points per game. Only three teams give up fewer points per game. The Cougars are seventh in total defense allowing 299.9 yards per contest. The Aztecs are very weak offensively especially their passing attack, which ranks 119th. San Diego State's game plan is to keep the clocking moving by running the ball and playing for field position trying to make sure BYU has long stretches to go.
12-12-20	Louisiana Tech +21.5 v. TCU		10-52	Loss	-108	53 h 51 m	Show
You can't blame TCU if it doesn't get excited about this matchup. The Horned Frogs are off a huge 29-22 home win against then 15th-ranked Oklahoma State last Saturday. This is their only nonconference matchup of the season. Louisiana Tech is the much fresher team. The Bulldogs have played just once since November and that was last Friday when they defeated North Texas. 42-31, on the road. The Bulldogs can score averaging just under 32 points per game. They are 27-11 ATS the past 38 times as a road 'dog. TCU has not shined as home chalk going 5-21 ATS the last 26 times as a home favorite.
12-12-20	Navy v. Army -7		0-15	Win	100	60 h 14 m	Show
Many key factors point to Army being the right side, including getting to host this annual rivalry. It's the first time since 1943 the teams aren't facing each other at a neutral site. Along with home field advantage, Army is in much better current form than Navy. The Black Knights are 5-1 in their last six games. Navy has dropped four in a row. These teams are all about running the football. Army exceeds, Navy doesn't. The Black Knights are the No. 3 rushing team in the country. They are No. 1 in rushing TD's with 31.Navy is 109th in run defense. Army ranks 23rd in run defense. The Black Knights have permitted only five rushing TD's. Navy still hasn't settled on a quarterback. The Midshipmen have produced just 13 points in their last two games against Memphis and Tulsa.
12-12-20	Akron v. Buffalo UNDER 61.5		7-56	Loss	-115	110 h 59 m	Show
At first glance this total may seem a little low considering Buffalo beat Kent State, 70-41, in its last game. But Akron is an entirely different opponent. The Zips may not even score. That was the case in last year's game. Buffalo blanked them, 21-0. That total was just 48. Buffalo remains a power in the Mid-American Conference. Akron remains terrible. But this year's total is much higher. I don't think that's justified. Yes, Buffalo can name its score here. The Bulls are going to destroy Akron. But to what extent? The Zips are in the argument for worst offense in the country. They rank 120th in total yards and 114th in scoring averaging 19.2 points. Buffalo is holding foes to an average of 24.5 points - and that's after surrendering 41 to Kent State. The Bulls held Bowling Green to 17 points and Miami of Ohio to 10 in their previous two games. Akron has been a huge Under team. The Under has cashed in 69 percent of its last 51 games. The last four in this series have gone Under. The weather forecast is calling for a 50 percent chance of rain with 12-15 mph winds. More ammunition to play Under.
12-12-20	Utah +1 v. Colorado		38-21	Win	100	11 h 41 m	Show
Colorado is a surprising 4-0. But I don't expect to see the Buffaloes remaining unbeaten after this game. Their record is impressive, but their play hasn't been that stellar. Colorado also has caught some lucky breaks. UCLA committed four turnovers against Colorado. Arizona was going with a freshman backup QB making his first start when it played the Buffaloes. Yet Colorado still needed a goal line stand to help hold off the Wildcats. San Diego State was riddled with injuries and had to play at Colorado on short notice and Stanford outscored the Buffaloes in the second half in losing by three points. I'm not impressed with Colorado QB Sam Noyer, who has a 4-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Utes are better in the trenches, especially their run defense which holds foes to 3.6 yards per rush. Ty Jordan is one of the better freshmen running backs in the country and veteran transfer QB Jake Bentley has a strong arm. He can take advantage of Colorado's inconsistent defense.
12-12-20	Michigan State +15.5 v. Penn State		24-39	Win	100	11 h 44 m	Show
Don't sleep on Michigan State in this Big Ten rivalry matchup. The Spartans were smashed, 52-12, by Ohio State last week. The Spartans weren't going to win that game even if their QB, Rocky Lombardi, didn't get knocked out. But there is an overcorrection in the line for this game. Penn State isn't very good this season especially on offense. Michigan State still is worthy of respect. Let's not forget the Spartans own a blowout win against Michigan and a victory versus Big 10 West champion Northwestern. I'm fine if Payton Thorne is Michigan State's QB if Lombardi can't go. The Nittany Lions are 2-5. Their victories have come against Michigan and Rutgers. Penn State is averaging a meager 23 points in their last six games. Sean Clifford has endured a terrible season and the Nittany Lions have been without RB Noah Cain and TE Pat Freiermuth. The weapons haven't been there. Penn State has given up 23 sacks and turned the ball over 15 times in its seven games. Michigan State has seven sacks in its last two games.
12-10-20	Patriots v. Rams UNDER 45.5	Top	3-24	Win	100	31 h 10 m	Show
No coach is better at specific defensive game-planning than Bill Belichick. The Rams found that out the hard way when they lost 13-3 to the Patriots two seasons ago in the Super Bowl. The Rams averaged 32.9 points during the regular season that year. Jared Goff is a quarterback who doesn't keep Belichick awake at night. Belichick's schemes completely stymied Goff, who enters this matchup averaging two turnovers per game during his last five games. New England has shown plenty of defense the past two weeks holding Arizona to 17 points and shutting out the Chargers. The Patriots held Kyler Murray and Justin Herbert to a combined 4.4 yards per pass attempt, one touchdown pass with four interceptions and five sacks. The Rams rank in the top-five in all of the major defensive categories, giving up the second-fewest yards. The Patriots have failed to break 21 points in six of their last nine games. The Patriots rely heavily on their ground game. They have played ultra-conservative this season because of lack of firepower. Cam Newton never was a highly accurate passer and his throwing has regressed. The Rams rank third in run defense. They also give up the fewest 20-plus yards completion so don't look for many big plays from New England.
12-10-20	Pittsburgh v. Georgia Tech OVER 54.5		34-20	Loss	-110	7 h 17 m	Show
Georgia Tech is giving up an average of 41.3 points during its last eight games. The Yellow Jackets are short-handed in the secondary and their defense is running on fumes as this marks their third game in 13 days. Yellow Jackets QB Jeff Sims, though, should be able to pass on Pittsburgh. Sims is a dual threat. He's rushed for 478 yards and thrown for 1,643. Pittsburgh is geared to stop the run. The Panthers rank 82nd in pass defense. The Over has cashed in each of the Panthers' last seven games. Look for that trend to continue here.
12-06-20	Giants v. Seahawks UNDER 47.5		17-12	Win	100	60 h 9 m	Show
Don't judge this total by full season statistics. Go by current form. Sparked by the return of star safety Jamal Adams, the Seahawks have held their last three opponents to an average of 20.3 points after surrendering an average of 30.4 points during the first eight games. The Giants rank 30th in scoring at 19.5 points and 29th in yards gained - and that was with Daniel Jones. Now they have backup QB Colt McCoy, a heady journeyman with a weak arm and a deserved reputation as nothing more than a dink-and-dunk game-manager. The Giants have been running more than they were earlier in the season. They've played at the fifth-slowest pace of any team during November. Seattle has been playing even slower ranking last in tempo during the past two weeks. The Seahawks have gone back to being a ground-and-pound team instead of letting Russell Wilson throw at will. Pete Carroll has returned to this old way to give cover to his defense and protect Wilson, who has been taking a pounding being sacked 16 times during the last four games. The Seahawks' offense has produced six TD's during the last three games after scoring four or more TD's in each of their first eight games. The Giants defense is greatly improved. New York has held its last six foes to an average of 20 points. The Under has cashed in five of those six games. The Under also has cashed in Seattle's past three games.
12-06-20	Rams -2.5 v. Cardinals	Top	38-28	Win	100	133 h 8 m	Show
The Cardinals are an improving team that is struggling right now held in check the past two weeks by the Seahawks and Patriots, neither of whom's defense can compare to the Rams. Kyler Murray may not be 100 percent. The Rams are the best team in football if you go by yardage, having the largest differential in the league. LA ranks in the top-five in all of the major defensive categories. Aaron Donald is the most disruptive lineman in the NFL and Jalen Ramsey is that rare cornerback who can handle DeAndre Hopkins. LA's balanced offense can control clock and take advantage of a mediocre Arizona defense that has multiple defensive line injuries and is minus its star pass rusher, Chandler Jones. The Rams have owned the Cardinals beating them the past six times going 5-0-1 ATS. Arizona would be 0-4 in its last four home contests if not for a successful Hail Mary against the Bills and an overtime victory against Seattle. Under Sean McVay, the Rams have won 21 of 31 road games going 19-12 (61 percent) ATS.
12-06-20	Colts -3 v. Texans		26-20	Win	100	57 h 58 m	Show
Houston had its highlight on Thanksgiving putting the final nail on Matt Patricia's coffin. The Texans are a bad team, two levels lower than the Colts. Indy has a top-10 defense. Deshaun Watson is playing at an elite level, but he doesn't have a reliable ground game even if David Johnson returns and now he has a thin wide receiving group with Will Fuller suspended, Kenny Stills gone and Randall Cobb injured. The Colts have gotten healthier on defense. They are effective and probing rather than flashy on offense. But they have more than enough manpower to handle a Houston defense that ranks 31st in run defense and 30th in total yards. The Texans also are second-to-last in takeaways.
12-06-20	Colts v. Texans UNDER 51		26-20	Win	100	57 h 53 m	Show
These teams averaged a combined 40 points in last season's two meetings. This game shapes up to be lower-scoring than projected, too, as these division foes are very well acquainted with each other. The Colts have offensive line injuries. Left tackle Anthony Castonzo is out and center Ryan Kelly is questionable. Philip Rivers figures to be more game-manager than downfield attacker. The Texans are very weak versus the run so I envision the Colts eating up clock with lots of running plays and Rivers sticking to short and safe passes. Deshaun Watson has been on fire. But he no longer has suspended deep threat Will Fuller and hasn't dealt with a defense this good since Week 3 when the Texans faced Pittsburgh and lost, 28-21. When Fuller hasn't been in the lineup, Watson has thrown for 55 fewer yards per game and a full TD pass less.
12-06-20	Lions v. Bears -3		34-30	Loss	-110	57 h 48 m	Show
Perception seems to be that the Lions are a live 'dog because they finally got rid of Matt Patricia and will play harder under interim coach Darrell Bevell. That remains to be seen. I never thought much of Bevell's play-calling when he was an offensive coordinator. The Bears are home, have owned the Lions and have a far superior defense. The Lions' plight is going to continue to be rough if Kenny Golladay and D'Andre Swift both remain out. I don't expect either of them to play. They are Matthew Stafford's best wide receiver and running back. Chicago has defeated Detroit five straight times, including 27-23 on the road in Week 1. Mitchell Trubisky plays great against just one opponent - this one. Trubisky has completed 67.5 percent of his throws against the Lions for 1,601 yards and 14 TD passes in six games. The Lions' defense isn't good to begin with and now they'll be minus veteran cornerback Desmond Trufant and run-stuffing nose tackle Danny Shelton. The Bears are more likely to be fired-up than the Lions. Chicago has lost five in a row, including getting buried in embarrassing fashion against the Packers in their last game. Matt Nagy ripped his team after that loss. Because their next three games are against the Texans, Vikings and Jaguars, the Bears still could get into the playoffs. So a hard effort should be forthcoming. Detroit has failed to cover 11 of the past 15 times as an underdog.
12-05-20	Indiana v. Wisconsin OVER 44.5		14-6	Loss	-105	38 h 48 m	Show
No, this low total isn't weather-related. The oddsmaker is just giving too much respect to Wisconsin's defense and not enough to Indiana's offense. Yes, the Hoosiers lost their star QB, Michael Penix Jr., for the season. But former Utah QB Jack Tuttle is one of the better backup QB's. He's a downfield passer with plenty of high-caliber receiving weapons and an excellent running back, Stevie Scott. The Hoosiers just rushed for 234 yards against Maryland in their last game. Wisconsin's offense is much better than it looked against Northwestern two weeks ago. The Badgers were idle last week after their game was cancelled. The extra time is good for their banged-up receiving corps and gives them ample time and motivation to scheme against Indiana, whose defense heavily relies on turnovers. Making the Badgers more dangerous than in previous years is the emergence of highly-touted freshman QB Graham Mertz. He could be Wisconsin's best QB since Russell Wilson. Weather won't be a problem as the forecast is for a clear day with no wind and temperatures in the 30s.
12-05-20	Indiana v. Wisconsin -14	Top	14-6	Loss	-110	76 h 13 m	Show
The Badgers ended up having two weeks to stew after their upset loss to Northwestern since last week's game against Minnesota was cancelled. Wisconsin is 15-5 ATS following a bye for 75 percent. Wisconsin catches a huge break in that Indiana lost its starting QB, Michael Penix, for the season due to a knee injury suffered last week against Maryland. The Hoosiers' strength was their passing attack. Their ground game had been disappointing until playing the Terps. The Badgers give up the fewest yards in the nation. They also rank No. 2 in run defense. Only two teams allow fewer points per game than Wisconsin, which has held its opponents to an average of 11.7 per game. I don't see the Hoosiers being able to dent Wisconsin's defense with a backup QB and mediocre ground attack. The Hoosiers have thrived on takeaways coming up with 18, including a nation-best 16 interceptions. Wisconsin is a ground-and-pound team, though, with its best quarterback prospect, Graham Mertz, in a long time. Mertz is back healthy and because of his passing skills, the Hooisers won't be able to stack the line, or play their safeties in the box to load up on the run.
12-05-20	Tulsa v. Navy +12.5		19-6	Loss	-104	13 h 58 m	Show
Tulsa struggles to win by margins with just one victory coming by more than eight points. I can see home 'dog Navy hanging in especially given the weather conditions in Annapolis. Rain and heavy winds, which could turn into gusts, have caused this total to be lowered. Points are more at a premium now. The bad weather is much better for Navy, too. The Midshipmen are heavily ground-oriented while Tulsa is a passing team operating from the spread. Navy held high-powered Memphis to 10 points in its last game. Memphis averages 33 points on the season. Tulsa is 0-5 lifetime against Navy in AAC league play. Navy beat the Golden Hurricane, 45-17, last season. Navy does have Army on deck. That's one of college football's biggest rivalries. Still, Navy has plenty of incentive for this game. It's Senior Day with 26 Navy seniors playing in their final home game. The Midshipmen have won an extraordinary 17 straight games on their Senior Day.
12-05-20	Bowling Green v. Akron UNDER 57.5	Top	3-31	Win	100	77 h 35 m	Show
Both teams are 0-4 and have terrible offenses. Bowling Green ranks 126th in scoring averaging 13.5 points. The Falcons are 111th in yards gained. Akron isn't much better being 123th in scoring at 16.3. The Zips rank 120th in yards gained. I don't like either of these team's QB's. Bowling Green QB Matt McDonald has a 1-to-6 TD-to-interception ratio. Zips QB Zack Gibson has a 3-to-5 TD-to-interception ratio. So I see this total as being too high. Akron has a race chance to win. So the Zips are likely to feed the ball a lot to Teon Dollard, their one decent skill position player. A lot of running plays is going to eat clock. The Under has cashed seven of the last eight times they've met.
12-05-20	Oklahoma State v. TCU UNDER 52		22-29	Win	100	9 h 24 m	Show
Short on personnel because of COVID 19, TCU coach Gary Patterson has made no secret about his game plan - run. The Horned Frogs want to shorten this game by playing ball control keeping Oklahoma State, with its bevy of star skill position players, off the field as much as possible. The Horned Frogs, though, haven't proven they can effectively run the ball against better defenses. They've padded their status versus lower echelon Big 12 Conference foes. The Cowboys have been dealing with injuries. Their star running back, Chuba Hubbard, is questionable with an ankle injury. TCU has held three of its past four opponents to 80 rushing yards. Only once in the past 11 instances have the Cowboys gone Over the total in December. TCU has gone Under in eight of its last 10 December games.
12-03-20	Louisiana Tech +2 v. North Texas	Top	42-31	Win	100	11 h 22 m	Show
Louisiana Tech currently is a slight road underdog to North Texas. But the Bulldogs shouldn't be. They have had four weeks to prepare and catch North Texas down in the dumps following a demoralizing 49-17 road loss to Texas San Antonio, probably the Mean Green's biggest Conference USA rival. Louisiana Tech is a dangerous 4-3 team with two of its defeats coming to Top 15 teams Marshall and BYU and the other defeat coming to Texas San Antonio, 27-26. The Bulldogs haven't played in the last four weeks. But the rust factor is more than offset by being fresh, having good practices and deep preparation for North Texas. The Mean Green, on the other hand, are playing on just five day's rest. Louisiana Tech is averaging better than 30 points per game and has some excellent skill position talent, including wide receiver Smoke Harris and running back Israel Tucker. They can take advantage of a Mean Green defense that ranks last in Conference USA in scoring defense giving up 41 points a game and also is at the bottom in rush defense and pass defense. The Bulldogs buried North Texas, 52-17, last season. North Texas has covered just four of its last 14 home contests and is a dreadful 1-11 ATS versus above .500 opponents.
11-29-20	Bears v. Packers -9		25-41	Win	100	21 h 52 m	Show
I want the Packers off a loss where they are a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS under Matt Lafleur. Aaron Rodgers hasn't lost to the Bears at home when he's started and finished a game since 2015. Green Bay averages 30.8 points, third-highest in the NFL. The Bears entered their break last week averaging fewer than 16 points during their last four games. They are either last or second from the bottom in scoring, total yards and rushing yards., Chicago has a patchwork offensive line and just one weapon, Allen Robinson. The Packers can limit Robinson with shutdown cornerback Jaire Alexander. Mitch Trubisky is great against the Lions. He's lousy against every other team. The Bears already have given up on Trubisky. He's back because Nick Foles is hurt and has been equally ineffective. The Bears also are 0-6 SU and ATS following a bye.
11-29-20	Chiefs v. Bucs +3.5		27-24	Win	100	17 h 47 m	Show
Given New Orleans being down Drew Brees, the Buccaneers could be the most complete team in the NFC. They have the defense to slow down the Chiefs' high-powered offense and a passing attack that can take advantage of a Kansas City secondary that in its last two games versus the Raiders and Panthers allowed 74.1 percent completions, 8.3 YPA, a 5-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio while coming up with just two sacks in 83 dropbacks by opposing quarterbacks Derek Carr and Teddy Bridgewater. Tom Brady spearheads a much more dangerous passing attack than those two teams. Brady could have the top wide receiving trio in the league with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown. They are getting in sync more each week. It's a bad spot, too, for the Chiefs. The Buccaneers are home with much to prove after big game home losses to the Saints and Rams. The Chiefs are in a division sandwich having just gotten satisfying revenge on the Raiders and hosting the Broncos next week.
11-29-20	Titans v. Colts UNDER 51.5		45-26	Loss	-110	14 h 50 m	Show
The Colts are a run-first team that will be minus their best running back, Jonathan Taylor, and probably center Ryan Kelly. The Titans are going to feed Derrick Henry. They are down to their third-string left tackle with Taylor Lewan and backup Ty Sambrailo both out. Tennessee's next two best offensive lineman, guard Rodger Saffold, and center Ben Jones, are each questionable. Indy ranks in the top five in all of the major defensive categories. They held the Titans to 17 points just two weeks ago. Ryan Tannehill had a season-low 5.4 yards per attempt and a 55 percent completion rate in that game. Expect a brisk game with the clock constantly moving due to many running plays. The Titans will make sure to clean up their punting and special teams play, which was costly to them in their loss to the Colts two weeks ago.
11-29-20	Browns -7 v. Jaguars	Top	27-25	Loss	-104	14 h 44 m	Show
The Browns don't have to do much here versus such an undermanned opponent. Baker Mayfield can just hand the ball off to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, while easily picking his spots against a dead Jacksonville team that is staggering with injuries. Jacksonville gives up the second-most yards per game in the NFL and yields nearly 30 points per contest. If not for a fluke victory against the Colts at home opening week, in which they were totally outplayed statistically, the Jaguars would be winless and ranking among the worst teams of all time. They haven't won since Week 1 with six of their defeats occurring by at least eight points. And now the Jaguars have to deal with their longest injury list. Jacksonville had one decent pass rusher, Josh Allen. He's out. The Jaguars have a cluster injury problem in the secondary down their three top cornerbacks. On offense, the Jaguars will be minus their top wide receiver, D.J. Chark, plus their best lineman, guard Andrew Norwell. Jake Luton proved to be as terrible as expected. So now the Jaguars turn to their third-string QB journeyman stiff Mike Glennon. Cleveland doesn't need Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward to take advantage of Glennon's lack of downfield throwing skills and no mobility.
11-28-20	Texas Tech v. Oklahoma State -10.5		44-50	Loss	-110	10 h 41 m	Show
I want to fade a punchless Texas Tech offense against Oklahoma State, which is in a foul mood after getting blown out by rival Oklahoma last week. The Cowboys still harbor Big 12 title hopes, have many huge defensive edges and are much superior in the skill positions. The Red Raiders have lost and failed to cover in all three of their road games, all versus Big 12 foes and all by double-digits. They are 2-5 in their last seven games. Oklahoma State gives up nearly 18 fewer points per game than Texas Tech. The Red Raiders have only reached 400 yards once in their last five games. They aren't going to be able to hang close to Oklahoma State.
11-28-20	Kent State v. Buffalo -7		41-70	Win	100	10 h 47 m	Show
Both teams are 3-0. But Buffalo is the elite team of the Mid-American Conference. The Bulls are 9-1 going back to last season. Their lone loss? It came to Kent State on the road last season and it came in shocking fashion with the Bulls blowing a 21-point lead with eight minutes to play. The Golden Flashes came up with a recovered onside kick and blocked punt to set up that improbable victory. The well-coached Bulls haven't forgotten. Buffalo has excellent skill position talent in QB Kyle Van Treese and running back James Patterson, who is coming off a 301-yard rushing, 4-TD wipeout of Bowling Green. The Bulls won that game, 42-17, but didn't manage to cover the large point spread. They are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games, however. Buffalo also has a strong defense holding foes to 19 points per game, which rates 15th in the nation. Kent has been a nice story this season, but the unbeaten Golden Flashes have played an easy schedule. This includes wins against the two worst MAC teams, Bowling Green and Akron. Buffalo is the stronger team and has monster revenge.
11-27-20	Notre Dame -4.5 v. North Carolina	Top	31-17	Win	100	48 h 48 m	Show
The Irish can't afford to slip up here in their hopes of reaching the national title game. And they shouldn't because they are much too balanced for North Carolina. Both teams have outstanding offenses. But North Carolina is much more vulnerable on defense especially when stopping the run. The Tar Heels also come up with very few takeaways. Notre Dame ranks fourth against the run and are in the top 11 in total defense and scoring defense - and that's after playing Clemson. The Irish have scored 40 or more points in five of their eight games, while holding foes under 14 points five times. The Tar Heels can't match that. I don't see Sam Howell being so effective when the Irish take away North Carolina's ground attack. The Irish have covered the last six times they've been favored by a touchdown or less.
11-22-20	Chiefs -6.5 v. Raiders	Top	35-31	Loss	-100	88 h 31 m	Show
Patrick Mahomes alone is enough to be confident in the Chiefs beating the Raiders by more than a TD. Mahomes is firmly in the MVP discussion with a 25-to-1 TD-to-interception ratio. Mahomes has accounted for 15 touchdowns in five career games against the Raiders and their defensive coordinator, Paul Guenther. The Raiders are among the bottom-four in sacks, sack ratio and quarterback hit rate. So Mahomes is going to have time to operate. If you throw out a heavy wind game against the Browns, the Raiders have given up more than 30 points per game during their last six games. But, wait, there is more. The Chiefs have monster revenge. The Raiders dealt them their lone loss. Kansas City also is off its bye. No coach is better with an extra week during the regular season than Andy Reid, who is 18-3 in this role. The Chiefs' defense has been playing better allowing 17 or fewer points in three of their last four games. The Raiders were missing three starting offensive linemen in their last game and their defense is dealing with COVID protocols with seven players affected, including safety Jonathan Abram.
11-22-20	Dolphins v. Broncos +3.5		13-20	Win	100	83 h 18 m	Show
The Dolphins are a nice story this season exceeding expectations so far with a 6-3 record. But they are not some elite team and find themselves in a tough situational spot. Miami traveled to Arizona and nipped the Cardinals two weeks ago. The Dolphins beat the Chargers at home last Sunday and now must go on another long flight. This time into high altitude and colder weather. The 3-6 Broncos actually give up fewer yards per game and average more yards per game than the Dolphins. The problem for Denver has been a league-high 21 turnovers. Protect the ball and the Broncos should win. I'm expecting Drew Lock to play, but if he doesn't I'm fine with backup Brett Rypien, who was the quarterback when Denver beat the Jets, 37-28, on Oct. 1. I understand the Dolphins aren't the Jets. But I'm fine if Rypien plays instead of Lock.
11-22-20	Eagles +3.5 v. Browns		17-22	Loss	-115	80 h 20 m	Show
As disappointing as the Eagles have been this season, they are in first place in the bogus NFC East Division. So they certainly are not raising up the white flag. I expect improvement from the Eagles now that they are finally healthy on offense. If you subtract the two heavy-wind games the Browns were involved in against the Raiders and Texas, Cleveland would be giving up 31.6 points a game. The Browns have a banged-up offensive line and right tackle Jack Conklin is dealing with COVID-19 issues. A comparison can be made because each team has played the Ravens and Steelers. The Eagles lost by nine at the Steelers after trailing by just two points with less than four minutes and they were edged by the Ravens, 30-28, after missing a two-point conversion with less than two minutes left. By contrast, the Browns were crushed 38-6 by the Ravens and blown out 38-7 by the Steelers.
11-22-20	Patriots -126 v. Texans		20-27	Loss	-126	80 h 18 m	Show
The Patriots are far better coached, have momentum with a two-game win streak and match up well to demoralized Houston. The Texans rank last in run defense and second-to-last in rushing. That's a horrible combination made worse by meeting the Patriots, whose strength is running the ball and pass defense. New England is averaging 173.3 yards rushing during its past three games. The Patriots rank third in rushing. Cam Newton is 40-of-52 for 392 yards and a combined 4 TD's during the last two games, victories against the Ravens and Jets. The Texans have only six takeaways, second-lowest in the league. The Texans lack chemistry done in by an early brutal schedule, mismanagement and Bill O'Brien's blundering. O'Brien was a terrible on-the-field coach and Romeo Crennel is not an improvement.
11-22-20	Bengals v. Washington Football Team OVER 47		9-20	Loss	-110	8 h 32 m	Show
Alex Smith has produced 300-yard in consecutive games for the first time in his career. Washington's offense has picked up with its most productive scoring stretch of the season averaging 24 points. Washington gets to face a bad Bengals defense that ranks 26th in total yards and has the second-fewest sacks in the league with 11. Joe Burrow has lived up to high expectations. The Bengals are passing more now that Joe Mixon is out. Washington isn't generating as much quarterback pressure as before.
11-21-20	Liberty v. NC State OVER 65		14-15	Loss	-113	10 h 35 m	Show
Liberty has been a huge success story this season going 8-0. The Flames have scored at least 30 points in all but one game as Auburn transfer Malik Willis has been brilliant accounting for 24 TD's with his passing and running. I don't see North Carolina State slowing down Liberty's offense. The Wolfpack give up 33.9 points per game and rank 107th in pass defense. NC State QB Bailey Hockman was impressive in helping the Wolfpack defeat Florida State, 38-22, last week. Hockman has played well in his first two starts. He's surrounded by excellent skill position talent. So the Wolfpack certainly are going to put up their share of points. They average nearly 34 points a game.
11-21-20	Florida International +7.5 v. Western Kentucky	Top	21-38	Loss	-110	12 h 19 m	Show
Florida International's 0-4 record is a bit deceiving and Western Kentucky can't score. The Hilltoppers are near the bottom in college football in points and yards per game. They are averaging 11.6 points in their last six games and haven't scored more than 24 points in a game all season. The Panthers nearly upset 21st-ranked Liberty, losing 36-34 on the road. They were impacted by COVID-19, but are coming out of that now. Western Kentucky hasn't won a game by more than 3 points all season. The Hilltoppers are 5-17-1 ATS the past 23 times when laying points and have covered just 20 percent of their past 11 games going 2-8-1 ATS. Florida International, on the other hand, has covered 12 of the last 17 times it has been a 'dog.
11-21-20	Illinois v. Nebraska OVER 58.5		41-23	Win	100	10 h 54 m	Show
Lovie Smith is one of my least favorite college coaches. But he has skill position talent with Isaiah Williams and Chase Brown. Mike Epstein is a reliable running back, too. The Illini ran for 337 yards against Rutgers last week. Nebraska's defense ranks 97th in run defense. The Cornhuskers are better offensively than they've shown. They've had the misfortune of opening against Ohio State and Northwestern, who have two of the best defenses in the Big 10. There were 80 points scored in last year's game between the two teams and 89 points produced when the teams met two years ago. Weather shouldn't be a problem with the forecast calling for temperatures in the 40's, 20 percent chance of rain and nine mile per hour wind.
11-20-20	Syracuse +20 v. Louisville	Top	0-30	Loss	-110	8 h 6 m	Show
I'll take nearly 3 TD's against a Louisville team that is 2-6 and has lost six of its last seven games. The Cardinals are without their star running back Javian Hawkins, who opted out of the season, and could be minus their star wide receiver, Tutu Atwell, too. He's questionable due to injury. Syracuse isn't good either. But the Orange will be at full strength for the first time in a month. That will aid their rotation depth. They also are off a bye, which will help freshman QB JaCobian Morgan. Syracuse hung in against Boston College in its last game, losing 16-13 as 14 1/2-point 'dogs. Morgan was 19-of-30 for 188 yards and a TD in that game. If there's one thing Syracuse does well it is come up with takeaways forcing 17. That ranks second nationally. Louisville, by contrast, has committed 18 turnovers. Only three teams have lost the ball more.
11-19-20	Cardinals v. Seahawks -3	Top	21-28	Win	100	40 h 27 m	Show
The Cardinals are riding high after pulling out a 32-30 home win against the Bills this past Sunday on a 43-yard TD pass from Kyler Murray to DeAndre Hopkins with two seconds left. The Seahawks are at low ebb having lost three of their past four games, including the last two. Now, though, is the time to buy low on Seattle and fade Arizona in this spot. The Cardinals have to travel on a short week still basking in their near-miracle victory against the Bills. Arizona exerted a ton of energy in that game coming back from a 23-9 deficit midway through the third quarter. Fans won't be permitted into the stadium, but Seattle still is in a highly favorable situation not having to lose a day of practice to travel and in short revenge. The Cardinals nipped the Seahawks, 37-34, in overtime on Oct. 25. The Cardinals tied the game on a 44-yard field goal as time expired to force the OT. Russell Wilson threw three interceptions yet the Seahawks still should have won that game outgaining Arizona and controlling the clock for nearly 10 more minutes than the Cardinals. Seattle didn't have superstar safety Jamal Adams, nor pass rusher Carlos Dunlap, in that game either. The Seahawks haven't lost three straight regular season games in nine years. They have covered 68 percent of their last 51 games following a loss. The Seahawks have a history of being very tough in nationally televised games with the best record in the NFL in primetime games since Carroll took over Seattle in 2010.
11-18-20	Western Michigan v. Central Michigan -121	Top	52-44	Loss	-121	42 h 55 m	Show
Spot, double-revenge and superior defense are factors all in Central Michigan's favor. Western Michigan hasn't faced a defense this good yet. It should all add up to a victory for the home Chippewas. Central Michigan has covered seven of its last eight home games, while the Broncos are 2-7 ATS in their past nine away matchups. Western Michigan is in a prime letdown spot after the Broncos pulled off a dramatic and highly improbable 41-38 home victory against Toledo last week. The Broncos scored two TD's in the final 45 seconds to achieve the near-impossible. They recovered an on-side kick to set up the final touchdown, which came with 17 seconds left. Western Michigan's statistics are skewed by getting to play pathetic Akron. Central Michigan has wins against Ohio and Northern Illinois in its two games. The Chippewas have double revenge and should be highly motivated.
11-15-20	Ravens -7 v. Patriots		17-23	Loss	-105	137 h 10 m	Show
The Patriots lack talent and there is nothing Bill Belichick can do about it. The Patriots haven't been this bad in nearly 20 years. They barely managed to beat the Jets. Before that victory, New England was averaging 12.2 points in its last four games. Cam Newton is devoid of weapons and New England's defense is worse than perceived. Washed-up Joe Flacco threw for 262 yards and 3 TD's against the Patriots this past Monday. The Ravens are the No. 1 rushing team in the NFL averaging 170 yards on the ground. The Patriots rank 25th in run defense. Baltimore has won its last 10 road games going 7-2-1 ATS. The Ravens, though, have never won at New England in five regular-season meetings. This is their opportunity and I look for a lot of pent-up frustration from the Ravens to be unleashed against the for-once overmatched Patriots.
11-15-20	Ravens v. Patriots OVER 41	Top	17-23	Loss	-115	137 h 11 m	Show
The Patriots' defense is worse than many people thought it was. New England ranks sixth-from-the-bottom in run defense and is going against the No. 1 rushing team in the NFL. New England surrendered 262 passing yards and 3 TD throws to Joe Flacco on Monday, so it can't just stack the line to stop the run against Lamar Jackson. The Ravens' defense remains a work-in-progress surrendering 28 points in two of their last three games. Baltimore just lost star pass rusher Calais Campbell to a calf injury. Scoring is way up in the NFL. So this isn't a difficult total to go Over. There shouldn't be any weather problems either with the forecast calling for temperatures in the 40s with just six mph wind.
11-15-20	Bengals +7.5 v. Steelers		10-36	Loss	-110	50 h 20 m	Show
Bengals plus 8 at Steelers I like the Bengals to hang within a touchdown of the Steelers whether Ben Roethlisberger plays or not. I'm locking in now because the number will shrink if Roethlisberger is not cleared to play, which would mean Mason Rudolph under center and a far more conservative Pittsburgh game plan. Rudolph is a stiff and Roethlisberger wouldn't have the benefit of any practice this week. Cincinnati gives up a lot of yardage, but their scoring defense isn't that far below average ranking 20th giving up 26.8 points per game. Cincinnati has scored 27 or more points in five of its last seven games. Expectations were set high for Joe Burrow - and he's surpassed them. I don't expect Joe Mixon back yet, but he's only had one really good game. A hidden key for the Bengals has been the tremendous kicking of veteran journeyman Randy Bullock, who is 18-for-20 in field goals and perfect on 20 extra point kicks. Only once have the Bengals lost by more than five points this season. They are 11-3 ATS the last 14 times as a road underdog.
11-15-20	Broncos v. Raiders OVER 50.5		12-37	Loss	-110	50 h 54 m	Show
Let's get into this handicap of Denver-Las Vegas Over the total by shooting down three false perceptions. No. 1: Derek Carr is a below average QB, more game manager than gunslinger. That may have been true before, but not this season. Carr has grasped and taken a hold of Jon Gruden's astute modes of attack. Aided by better wide receiver weapons and an underrated offensive line, Carr has a career-high and NFL fifth-best passer rating of 110. He's thrown 16 TD passes with just two interceptions. No. 2: Denver's defense is good. It isn't. Average at best. Vic Fangio is a top-five defensive coach, but the Broncos still have surrendered an average of 35.7 points during their last three games. The Broncos are especially vulnerable to tight ends - and the Raiders have an excellent one in Darren Waller. No. 3: The Broncos' offense is boring, held back by work-in-progress Drew Lock and the loss of their best wide receiver, Courtland Sutton. It remains up in the air if Lock will become a successful starting NFL QB. So far, though, he's displayed mobility and daringness to throw downfield instead of just check off. The Broncos have loads of weapons even without Sutton with Phillip Lindsay, Melvin Gordon, Jerry Jeudy, Noah Fant, Tim Patrick and KJ Hamler. Jeudy and Fant have star potential. Denver is averaging 28.2 points during its last four games. The Broncos get to go against a Raiders defense that if you discount a game against the Browns two weeks ago where there were gale force winds and snow that prevented much passing, is giving up an average of 33.7 points in their last five games. Lock should have a clean pocket, too, as Las Vegas has just nine sacks and the fewest takeaways in the league with five.
11-15-20	Eagles -3 v. Giants	Top	17-27	Loss	-114	124 h 15 m	Show
The Eagles started to get healthier before their bye last week and now could have Miles Sanders and right tackle Lane Johnson joining left tackle Jason Peters, Dallas Goedert and Jalen Reagor, who all recently returned from injuries. Daniel Jones is 6-16 as a starter with 36 turnovers. It's not close between him and Carson Wentz, who threw 3 TD passes when the Eagles beat the Giants, 22-21, three weeks ago. That was the eighth straight time the Eagles have defeated the Giants. The short point spread does not accurately reflect how much superior the Eagles are to the Giants, whose only two victories have been against Washington.
11-14-20	Oregon v. Washington State UNDER 58.5		43-29	Loss	-109	124 h 35 m	Show
Oregon served notice that it could have the most defensive talent in the Pac-12 holding Stanford to 14 points last week. Washington State isn't the up-tempo, throw at will team it was under Mike Leach. The Cougars run far more and play at a slower pace. This is a different type of Cougars team and I expect them to have trouble against Oregon's defense. The early weather forecast is for heavy winds, too.
11-14-20	Arkansas +18 v. Florida		35-63	Loss	-110	62 h 15 m	Show
Florida is vulnerable this week. The Gators are coming off a huge victory against Georgia and taking on a much improved and opportunistic Arkansas squad. The Gators halted a three-game losing streak to Georgia with a 44-28 victory last week. It's going to be difficult for Florida to get up for the Razorbacks. The well-coached Razorbacks have been underdogs in each of their six games this season. They have covered every time, including posting three straight-up wins. Florida QB Kyle Trask is having a huge season. Arkansas, though, has a tremendous pass defense. Only once have the Razorbacks yielded 300 passing yards. Arkansas has picked off 12 passes and is plus 8 in turnover margin. Florida has turned the ball over at least once every game. Feleipe Franks was Florida's QB before coming to Arkansas. Franks has been solid, connecting on 67 percent of his throws with 14 TD's. He certainly won't lack motivation going against his former team.
11-14-20	Baylor +1 v. Texas Tech		23-24	Push	0	36 h 12 m	Show
Baylor has found a team it can beat - Texas Tech. The Bears have the much superior defense and Texas Tech is the one team they can run on. The Red Raiders are surrendering 40.1 points per game and rank 107th in yards allowed per game. Their defense is the worst in the Big 12. The Bears rank third in the Big 12 in pass defense. Texas Tech hasn't had a 300-yard passing game in its last five games. The Red Raiders have scored 21 or fewer points in three of their last five games.
11-14-20	Notre Dame v. Boston College +14	Top	45-31	Push	0	106 h 5 m	Show
This is the mother of all letdown spots for Notre Dame and I'm going to take advantage of it by grabbing two TD's with home underdog Boston College. The Irish are still celebrating Brian Kelly's first win against a top-five program with their 47-40 double overtime win against Clemson this past Saturday. Boston College is good enough to pull the outright upset. The Eagles lost by just six points on the road to Clemson. They have been a tremendous underdog going 19-7-1 ATS the past 27 times in that role, including covering the past five times at home. BC coach Jeff Hafley has improved the Eagles defense making it respectable, while Notre Dame transfer QB Phil Jurkovec has a big arm, is athletic and can run. The Eagles aren't lacking in skill position talent with Jurkovec, Zay Flowers, David Bailey and Hunter Long. Boston College is going to treat this game like a Holy War taking the matchup much more serious than Notre Dame.
11-14-20	Penn State -3 v. Nebraska		23-30	Loss	-110	33 h 58 m	Show
Something has to give between these two winless and disappointing Big Ten teams. Penn State hasn't had a losing season since 2004. The Nittany Lions have suffered two of their losses to much-improved Indiana and powerful Ohio State. They are more talented than Nebraska. Sean Clifford is one of the better QB's in the Big 10 and Penn State's run defense and pass rush have been there. The team has been hurt by turnovers. Nebraska has managed only 30 points in its losses to Ohio State and Northwestern. QB Adrian Martinez keeps sadly regressing. The Cornhuskers lack a downfield passing game and their running attack isn't strong enough to offset that. The Cornhuskers have failed to cover in 9 of their last 11 (18 percent) Big Ten games and are 6-18-2 ATS in their past 26 home games.
11-13-20	Iowa v. Minnesota +3.5	Top	35-7	Loss	-103	18 h 41 m	Show
I trust Minnesota's offense. The Gophers have outstanding skill position talent with Mohamed Ibrahim, who leads the Big Ten in rushing, Rashod Bateman - who is in the argument for being the best wide receiver in the Big Ten - and QB Tanner Morgan. Minnesota has produced 85 points in its last two games, both on the road against Maryland and Illinois. Now the Gophers get Iowa at home in a major rivalry matchup with the Floyd of Rosedale Trophy at stake. Personally, I feel the loser of this game should own the hardware since it's a trophy of a pig. But these teams really care about owning the trophy. Iowa is coming off a 49-7 blowout of Michigan State. But I don't trust Iowa's offense the way I do Minnesota's. Michigan State is down this season. Minnesota's defense can handle Iowa QB Spencer Petras, who is completing just 54 percent and has a 2-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Petras isn't a running threat like other QB's Minnesota has faced and had trouble containing. He's also not an accurate enough passer to keep up with the Gophers' high-powered attack.
11-12-20	Colts +1 v. Titans	Top	34-17	Win	100	18 h 31 m	Show
If you're judging this matchup just by skill position talent it's no contest. The Titans easily have the three best players in this area with Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown. So why then is this game a pick'em given the Titans' skill position edge and being the home team on a short week? It's because the Colts own the far superior defense, have a better offensive line and have the advantage on special teams. These edges outweigh the Titans' skill position players and put me on the Colts. Tremendous credit goes to the Colts for building a defense that ranks No. 1 in total yards giving up 290 yards per game and the third-fewest points at 20 per game. Indy also ranks No. 3 in run defense. Henry hasn't faced the Colts since they upgraded an already good defensive line with DeForest Buckner. I also rate Darius Leonard as the best linebacker in the league. Tannehill is better than Philip Rivers, but he's not an elite quarterback and he won't be that effective with play-action if Henry isn't churning out yards. The Bears held the Titans to 4.1 yards per play last Sunday. The Colts' defense is rated higher and their offense is better than the Bears. Indy's run defense surrenders just 3.3 yards per carry. The Titans are without their best offensive lineman, injured left tackle Taylor Lewan. Guard Rodger Saffold might be Tennessee's second-best offensive lineman and he's questionable with a shoulder injury. The Colts' offense doesn't scare anyone with Philip Rivers in his NFL dotage. But Indy has produced points when going against non-elite defense such as the Titans averaging 34 points against the Lions, Bengals, Jets and Vikings. Rivers is playing better, producing two of his three highest passer ratings during the past three games with six TD passes during this span. T.Y. Hilton, the Colts' top wide receiver, is expected to play. The Titans rank 25th defensively giving up more than 100 yards per game than Indianapolis. Tennessee allows opponents to convert on 55.4 percent of their third downs, which is the worst figure in the NFL. That mark was even higher, but the Titans held the woeful Bears offense to 2-of-15 on third down. Then there's the kicking game. It favors Indy. Colts rookie Rodrigo Blankenship has come through making 17 of 19 field goals. By contrast, Titans place-kicker Stephen Gostkowski has the worst mark in the league for field goal accuracy making just 11 of 18. Field position always is important and the Titans won't have their All-Pro punter Brett Kern. He missed his first game since 2009 last week with a wrist injury, ending a string of 180 straight games. Kern has the seventh-highest punting average in the league. Kern also is the Titans' holder on extra points and field goals. Ryan Allen replaced Kern against the Bears and did an excellent job punting. But can he do it again? He's not a sure, reliable entity like Kern.
11-11-20	Toledo +3 v. Western Michigan	Top	38-41	Push	0	17 h 21 m	Show
Both Toledo and Western Michigan looked great in its opening-week Mid-American Conference victories last week. But I'm not putting much stock into those wins because they were layups against horrible opponents, Bowling Green for Toledo and Akron for Western Michigan. What I am putting stock in is Toledo's recent history against Western Michigan, the Broncos holding less of a home field advantage than perceived and Rockets' redemption from last year's disappointing season. The Rockets finished 6-6 last season, their worst mark since 2009. They weren't invited to a bowl game. I'm expecting that to change this season. The Rockets have a healthy QB in Eli Peters and a pair of quality senior running backs, Bryant Koback and Shakif Seymour. Toledo has experience in the defensive line and secondary. I like the Rockets' talent on both sides of the ball. Western Michigan had to replace its starting QB and also lost MAC Offensive Player of the Year running back LeVante Bellamy. The Broncos haven't been able to beat the Rockets since PJ Fleck left for Minnesota. Toledo has won the last three in the series, including 27-point victories each of the last two years. Western Michigan is tough at Waldo Stadium, but no public attendance is allowed for the game. The Broncos were fortunate to play many weak teams at home last season. That's not the case here.
11-10-20	Miami-OH v. Buffalo -9.5	Top	10-42	Win	100	16 h 45 m	Show
I believe Buffalo is the best team in the MId-American Conference and the Bulls did nothing to dispel that notion rolling past Northern Illinois, 49-30, during the MAC's opening week. The Bulls are very well-coached under Lance Leipold. They've been hot since the middle of last season covering eight of their last nine games. They also have covered 77 percent of their past 22 home games. Miami of Ohio has high expectations, too. But the Redhawks were fortunate to get past Ball State, 38-31, at home last week scoring the game-winning TD with 10 seconds left following a Ball State turnover. The Redhawks could be without their starting QB, Brett Gabbert. He's questionable after suffering a head injury against Ball State. Sophomore AJ Mayer replaced Gabbert and played well. However, Mayer, who did not throw a pass last year, would be on the road and meeting a far stronger defense. The Bulls also have film on him now. I don't see MIami of Ohio slowing down the Bulls' strong ground attack, nor being able to put up enough points to stay within double-digits.
11-09-20	Patriots v. Jets +10	Top	30-27	Win	100	10 h 45 m	Show
At double-digits, I'm involved with the Jets. And, yes, my hand is firmly holding my nose. The handicap is completely anti-New England rather than pro Jets in any way although the Jets certainly won't lack motivation. This is the rare national stage for them. They are home, hate the Patriots and do not want to become the first Jets team in team history to open 0-9. The line has been adjusted upward because Joe Flacco is going to start instead of Sam Darnold. Flacco has been washed up for years. But he's a veteran and Darnold hasn't played well. So there's really not that much of a difference. Darnold has been spooked by the Patriots and Bill Belichick so I would have had little confidence in him. Stephon Gilmore, the Patriots' best defensive back, is out with a knee injury. Forget the past two decades. New England is terrible. The Patriots have worse skill position talent than even the Jets. New England ranks 29th in scoring and 30th in total yards. The Patriots are averaging 12.2 points in their last four games. They could have kicking problems, too, as Nick Fok is questionable with a back injury. If Folk can't kick, rookie Justin Rohrwasser would be promoted from the practice squad. The Patriots' puny offense certainly can't withstand any missed field goals. The Patriots shouldn't be laying double-digits to any team - even to the Jets.
11-08-20	Saints v. Bucs -4.5		38-3	Loss	-109	63 h 54 m	Show
The records may not show it, but there's been a turnaround since the Saints beat the Buccaneers opening week. Tampa Bay is now the superior team - and not because it is playing at home. The Buccaneers are a rising power with an elite defense and an offense that could come fully together now that all the pieces are healthy and Antonio Brown has been added. Tampa Bay had the best run defense last year and the Bucs are No. 1 in stopping the run this season overcoming the loss of nose tackle Vita Vea. Tampa Bay is 6-2 outscoring its foes by 82 points. The Saints are a lucky 5-2 outscoring their opponents by merely nine points. New Orleans has won its last four games by a combined margin of 15 points with two overtime victories. The Saints have given up the second-most TD passes in the league. Tom Brady has the weapons to exploit that.
11-08-20	Dolphins v. Cardinals UNDER 49.5		34-31	Loss	-110	54 h 30 m	Show
A quarterback matchup of Tua Tagovailoa versus Kyler Murray is the headline to this matchup. But this is a sneaky Under play between two underrated defenses against offenses missing key running backs. The Dolphins have allowed an average of just 11.3 points during their last three games. Xavien Howard and Byron Jones are in the discussion for best cornerback tandem in the NFL. Miami won't have to worry about the Cardinals' starting tailback Kenyan Drake, who is out with an ankle injury. The Cardinals have a bend-but-don't-break defense ranking ninth in scoring defense allowing fewer than 21 points a game. Miami could be without its two best running backs. Lead runner Myles Gaskin is out with a knee injury and Matt Breida is questionable with a hamstring. This could open up carries for plodding Jordan Howard, who is the dream back for Under bettors. Arizona was idle last week. The Cardinals now have film on Tagovailoa, who wasn't impressive in his NFL debut against the Rams last week throwing for just 93 yards.
11-08-20	Ravens -121 v. Colts		24-10	Win	100	53 h 48 m	Show
I think the Colts are a solid, well-coached team with a quality defense. But the Ravens, with Lamar Jackson, trump them especially in this spot. Baltimore is fighting mad after outplaying but losing at home to the Steelers last week because of four turnovers. The Ravens' defense is better than it was last season and their offense has more firepower than the Colts. Baltimore is off its best running game of the season - and it came against the very tough Steelers. Indy hasn't faced the competition Baltimore has. The Colts have feasted on the Jaguars, Vikings, Jets, Bengals and Lions. They lost to the Jaguars and struggled against some of those other lower-echelon teams. The Colts haven't gone against a QB who is the dual threat Jackson is. They also haven't encountered such a strong running attack. The Ravens have done their best work on the road winning nine straight away games.
11-08-20	Giants v. Washington Football Team -139		23-20	Loss	-139	53 h 44 m	Show
Washington has short division revenge. The teams met just two weeks ago. The Giants won, 20-19, when Washington missed on a two-point try with 36 seconds left. The Giants had scored on what turned out to be the winning TD on a 43-yard fumble return. Washington outgained New York by 130 yards. Following that game, Washington buried Dallas, 25-3, outgaining the Cowboys, 397-142. Washington had a bye last week. Rookie Antonio Gibson emerged to run for a career-best 128 yards in that game while Kyle Allen continued to improve. This will be his fourth start since replacing Dwayne Haskins. You might not think much of Allen, but Daniel Jones is proving not to be the answer for the Giants. He's thrown just two TD passes in four road games and has committed at least one turnovers in every game. He's thrown the third-most interceptions in the NFL. I give a talent edge to Washington with Chase Young, Montez Sweat, Terry McLaurin and Gibson along with a coaching edge in Ron Riveria against first-year Giants coach Joe Judge.
11-08-20	Seahawks v. Bills UNDER 55		34-44	Loss	-109	53 h 43 m	Show
Don't let the season defensive statistics of these two teams fool you. The stats are skewed. The Bills are healthier on defense now and Seattle has two key defensive reinforcements - All-Pro safety Jamal Adams and two-time Pro Bowl defensive end Carlos Dunlap. Seattle's defense looked sharp for three quarters last week holding the 49ers to 117 yards, but let up during fourth quarter garbage time after building a 23-point lead. Adams is that rare defensive player who could be worth something on the betting line that isn't being reflected. The Bills are averaging just 18.7 points during their last four games. They could be without center Mitch Morse (concussion) and deep threat John Brown (knee). The Bills are a ground-oriented team that will try to control the clock to keep the ball away from Russell Wilson. Buffalo's defense hasn't been as dominant as last season somewhat in part due to multiple injuries. The Bills are healthier now and could catch Seattle forced to play third-string RB DeeJay Dallas if Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde have to miss a second straight week because of injuries.
11-07-20	New Mexico v. Hawaii OVER 61		33-39	Win	100	120 h 53 m	Show
New Mexico has played just once this season, losing 38-21 to San Jose State. The Lobos are hurting defensively having lost their top four tacklers from last season. Their offense, though, has potential. New coach Danny Gonzalez is running an up-tempo spread offense. The Lobos did play fast against San Jose State. Hawaii plays at a quick pace, too, under Todd Graham. This is the Rainbow Warriors' first home game. Their offense drops way down in class meeting New Mexico after having a tough time at Wyoming last week. Wyoming ranks 25th in the country in scoring defense.
11-07-20	Washington State v. Oregon State -129		38-28	Loss	-129	31 h 45 m	Show
Oregon State should make some noise this year in the Pac-12 in Jonathan Smith's third season as head coach. The Beavers went 8-3-1 ATS last season. The Beavers return nine defensive starters and are optimistic this could be their best defense during the past decade. Jemar Jefferson provides Oregon State with one of the top running backs in the Pac-12. The Beavers have an experienced offensive line and are high on Nebraska QB transfer Tristan Gebbia. He has a solid receiving group to throw to. The Mike Leach era has ended at Washington State. The Cougars have a new coaching staff under Nick Rolovich and new schemes on each side of the ball. It's going to be difficult for the Cougars to get comfortable early due to COVID disrupting their training camp. They don't have an experienced starting QB either as true freshman Jayden de Laura is expected to start. Washington State has only six returning starters on offense.
11-07-20	South Alabama v. Coastal Carolina UNDER 54.5		6-23	Win	100	117 h 49 m	Show
Coastal Carolina's defense is for real. The Chanticleers have given up 13.6 points during their last three games. Coastal Carolina has 20 sacks on the season and eight interceptions. The Chanticleers' defensive front should dominate the line of scrimmage against South Alabama. The Jaguars are giving up 19.3 points during their last three games, all of which have gone Under. Neither team plays fast. Both are geared toward ground attacks, which keeps the clock moving.
11-07-20	Rutgers +39 v. Ohio State		27-49	Win	100	17 h 55 m	Show
The combination of Rutugers' improvement under Greg Schiano and an Ohio State letdown puts me on the Scarlet Knights getting this many points. Rutgers knocked off Michigan State, 38-27, opening week and hung tough in a 37-21 loss to then No. 17 ranked Indiana in its two games. The Knights' win against the Spartans is made even more impressive after Michigan State defeated Michigan last Saturday. The Buckeyes could be in letdown mode after defeating then 18th-ranked Penn State, 38-25, last week. Ohio State loses some of its home field advantage as just 1,600 people will be allowed into 100,000-seat Ohio Stadium. Even if Ohio State builds up a huge early lead there may be a reluctance to humiliate Schiano, who was the Buckeyes' associate head coach and defensive coordinator from 2016-18.
11-07-20	Tulane v. East Carolina OVER 61.5	Top	38-21	Loss	-109	21 h 17 m	Show
These two teams are a combined 9-2-1 (82 percent) to the Over this season. It's not a surprise as both have strong offenses and weak defenses. East Carolina has Holton Ahlers, one of the better QB's in the country, back after he missed a game because of COVID-19 protocols. Ahlers should have a big game versus the Green Wave, who rank 100th in pass defense. Ahlers is aided by freshman running back Jahjai Harris, who has put together three straight 100-yard rushing games. Tulane had allowed an average of 45.6 points and 582 yards during its last three games, until facing Temple last week. The Owls were missing their starting QB Anthony Russo. The Green Wave is averaging 36.3 points and is the 13th-best rushing team in the nation. Freshman QB Michael Pratt has shown continued improvement. He's accounted for 14 TD's during the last four games. East Carolina surrenders an average of 37 points per game.
11-06-20	San Jose State v. San Diego State -9	Top	28-17	Loss	-106	42 h 47 m	Show
I like the job Brent Brennan has done and is doing at San Jose State. The Spartans aren't a joke anymore. But they aren't good enough to stay within double-digits on the road against San Diego State. This is the 2-0 Spartans' first road game. They face the premier defense in the Mountain West Conference. San Diego State also is 2-0 beating UNLV and Utah State by a combined margin of 72-13. The Aztecs held those two foes to a combined 6.5 points and 200 total yards of offense. I don't see San Jose State QB Nick Starkel - who is the Ryan Fitzpatrick of college football with his journeyman background - getting the better of the Aztecs defense. Starkel has played at Arkansas, Texas A&M and Texas. The Spartans can't match the Aztecs on defense. The Aztecs have an excellent running back, Greg Bell, and a balanced offense.
11-05-20	Packers -7 v. 49ers	Top	34-17	Win	100	19 h 5 m	Show
The combination of injuries and COVID have destroyed the 49ers for much of the season. This situation is at its worst for the 49ers in this Thursday game. Not only do the 49ers have a cluster injury problem in their defensive line and injuries in their secondary, but their offense is now devastated, too. San Francisco has to play this game minus starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo, star tight end George Kittle, left tackle Trent Williams plus be without its top running back, Raheem Mostert, and its three top wide receivers! Talk about a depleted roster. Green Bay is likely down its three best running backs as Jamaal Williams and AJ Dillon are out and I don't expect Aaron Jones to play either. But Aaron Rodgers can overcome this because the Packers have a diverse offense with many short passing options. The Packers are averaging 31.3 points, third-best in the NFL. 49ers QB Nick Mullens operating an offense devoid of weapons will not be able to match Rodgers.
11-04-20	Buffalo -10 v. Northern Illinois	Top	49-30	Win	100	56 h 45 m	Show
Buffalo is favored to capture the Mid-American Conference, which kicks off their abbreviated season Wednesday. The Bulls' opponent is Northern Illinois, which was picked last in both the MAC Coaches Poll and Media Poll. Closely examining this matchup, it's apparent oddsmakers opened this line too short. Buffalo hasn't lost in more than a year. The Bulls' 2019 season culminated with a 31-9 blowout victory against Charlotte in the Bahamas Bowl. The Bulls held five of their last six foes to three touchdowns or fewer. The Bulls held opponents to less than three yards per run last season. Northern Illinois lacks an explosive offense and has a weak defense. The Huskies are extremely young, too, with 67 percent of their roster being freshmen. Buffalo has multiple good running backs and a strong offensive line. The Bears have the experience and talent gap to easily cover this margin.
11-01-20	Cowboys v. Eagles -8.5		9-23	Win	100	60 h 36 m	Show
A third-string offensive line and third-string QB Ben DiNucci makes all of the Cowboys' fantastic skill position weapons impotent with the possible exception of rookie CeeDee Lamb. The Eagles' defense is strong enough to take advantage of the Cowboys' extensive injuries. Carson Wentz doesn't need his top two tight ends nor DeSean Jackson to put up a huge number on the Cowboys' hapless defense that gives up the most points per game in the league and ranks last in run defense. A maximum effort should be forthcoming from the Eagles against this hated division rival knowing their bye comes up next week.
11-01-20	Saints v. Bears UNDER 45.5		26-23	Loss	-108	124 h 31 m	Show
Weather in Chicago can get tricky this time of year. Sure enough the weather forecast is for a windy day with gusts in the 19 mph range. The Bears have gone Under in their last four games. No surprise since they have an outstanding defense and a bottom-five caliber offense. Chicago ranks last in rushing and Nick Foles has become more game manager than gunslinger. The Saints have a respectable defense that should see improvement as injured players such as Marcus Davenport are back healthy. Alvin Kamara is a home run hitter. But even with Kamara, the Saints are one of the least explosive teams in the NFL. Drew Brees rarely attacks deep anymore. The Saints also have been without their two top wide receivers.
11-01-20	Titans -4 v. Bengals		20-31	Loss	-125	150 h 41 m	Show
Zac Taylor has been on the job in Cincinnati for nearly 1 1/2 years. So far the Bengals have three victories to show for it. They also are 3-8 ATS the past 11 times as home 'dogs. Taylor has a nice building block in rookie franchise QB Joe Burrow. But right now that's about all the Bengals have. And it's not nearly enough for them to hang with the Titans. Tennessee is averaging nearly 35 points during its last five games. Derrick Henry led the NFL in rushing last year and he ranks first this season by a wide margin. Ryan Tannehill has become a top-10 QB and has a healthy set of receivers headed by A.J. Brown. The Titans are going to breeze past a Bengals defense that has below par linebackers and multiple injuries both in the defensive front and secondary. Veteran defensive end Geno Atkins hasn't been quiet in his criticism of the Bengals coaching. Cincinnati surrendered 20 fourth-quarter points to the Browns this past Sunday despite Cleveland being minus Nick Chubb and Odell Beckham Jr. The Bengals finished their game against Cleveland minus three starting offensive linemen. They also aren't likely to have RB Joe Mixon back either. The Titans are one of the most opportunistic teams in the NFL with a plus nine turnover margin.
11-01-20	Patriots v. Bills UNDER 44		21-24	Loss	-109	124 h 32 m	Show
Both are ground-oriented teams especially the Patriots, who have a struggling passing attack and injuries in their offensive line. The Patriots' strength is their defense, particularly their secondary. The Bills couldn't produce a TD against the Jets last week. The Patriots are averaging 9.3 points during their last three games. The Bills' defense has gotten healthier. The weather forecast is for rain and 15-19 mph wind.
11-01-20	Colts -2.5 v. Lions		41-21	Win	100	84 h 37 m	Show
Simply put, the Colts know how to win. The Lions don't. Indy is coming off its bye. The Colts are much better coached than the Lions and own a far superior defense ranking in the top four in many of the major categories. The Colts are fresh and should control the trenches. The Lions rank 26th in run defense. Jonathan Taylor is lined up for success, which in turn takes the pressure off Philip Rivers. The expected return of superstar linebacker Darius Leonard makes the Colts' defense even stronger. Opposing QB's have just a 7-to-10 touchdown-to-interception ratio versus the Colts. The Lions have failed to cover nine of the last 13 times they've been underdogs.
11-01-20	Raiders v. Browns -134		16-6	Loss	-134	25 h 9 m	Show
Weather is going to factor in this game with heavy winds projected. The Browns are a running team, while the Raiders rely far more on the pass. So the conditions favor Cleveland. The Browns' strength is running the ball. Kareem Hunt is good enough to carry the load without Nick Chubb. The Raiders are giving up 32.8 points per game, 2nd-highest in the NFL. Baker Mayfield should be able to pick his spots in favorable yardage situations. The Browns have been opportunistic. They lead the NFL with 14 takeaways. The Raiders are minus 5 in turnover differential. Note this is an early start for the Raiders. The Raiders are 3-10 SU, 4-9 ATS when playing in the Midwest or East Coast under Jon Gruden with an averaging losing margin of 13 points.
11-01-20	Vikings v. Packers -6.5	Top	28-22	Loss	-112	150 h 60 m	Show
The Packers crushed the Vikings, 43-34, on the road opening week. The game wasn't nearly as close as the final score. The Packers led 29-10 in the fourth quarter and went on cruise control. Green Bay had 522 total yards and owned the ball 41:16-18:44. The Vikings couldn't stop Aaron Rodgers and Davonte Adams. Nothing has changed from that except the Packers have proven they are indeed for real while the Vikings have gone into rebuild mode with a 1-5 record. Minnesota signaled its intentions to begin a rebuild by recently trading stud defensive lineman Yannick Ngakoue knowing Dannielle Hunter was not going to return this season. Rodgers can attack a youthful Vikings secondary that ranks among the bottom-four while having a clean pocket. Green Bay has the fewest turnovers in the league with only two. Kirk Cousins, on the other hand, is on pace to throw 27 interceptions. The Packers are 8-0 in NFC North Division games under Matt LaFleur. The line has dropped due to Green Bay injuries. But left tackle David Bakhitari is expected to play and the Packers have a deep roster with one of the best backup RB's in Jamaal Williams.
10-31-20	Arkansas v. Texas A&M UNDER 54.5		31-42	Loss	-105	37 h 12 m	Show
Sam Pittman is doing an outstanding job with Arkansas' defense. The Razorbacks are giving up 25.5 points a game and lead the SEC with 10 interceptions. Texas A&M gives up the third-fewest yards in the SEC. Neither team is explosive or plays fast. I'm not fond of either team's QB. Both are mediocre. The Under has cashed in nine of the Razorbacks' last 12 road games.
10-31-20	Notre Dame v. Georgia Tech OVER 58.5		31-13	Loss	-105	18 h 4 m	Show
Fresh off having a huge game in putting up 45 points against Pittsburgh last Saturday, Notre Dame QB Ian Book gets to face a Georgia Tech defense yielding 41.2 points and nearly 480 yards per game. The Yellow Jackets lack a good pass rush. Look for Book to produce another big performance against a Georgia Tech team allowing 60.5 points in its last two games. It has been years, but Georgia Tech finally has a passing game of its own. Freshman QB Jeff Sims has thrown for 1,196 yards and 8 TD's while also rushing for 275 yards and scoring 4 TD's on the ground. The Over has cashed in the Yellow Jackets' last five home contests.
10-31-20	TCU v. Baylor UNDER 48	Top	33-23	Loss	-109	34 h 35 m	Show
Both TCU and Baylor have struggling offenses while also playing at a slow pace. TCU QB Max Duggan has been sacked nine times, while Baylor QB Charlie Brewer has shown major regression. These teams are about defense. Bears coach Dave Aranda is a top-notch defensive guru. He inherited lots of defensive talent from Matt Rhule. The Horned Frogs have put up 14 points each of the last two weeks against Kansas State and Oklahoma. The Bears are averaging 15 points in regulation during their last two games facing West Virginia and Texas.
10-31-20	Northwestern v. Iowa OVER 45.5		21-20	Loss	-110	79 h 32 m	Show
Northwestern's offense came out extremely sharp in its opener this past Saturday producing 43 points and 517 yards against Maryland. Yes, Iowa's defense presents far more of a challenge. But the Wildcats' offense is much improved from a year ago with Indiana transfer Patrick Ramsey at QB. Ramsey has a pair of good running backs in Drake Anderson and Isaiah Bowser. Ramsey completed passes to seven different receivers. The Wildcats also have one of the better kickers in the Big Ten with Charlie Kuhbander. Iowa gave up 24 points to Purdue in a 24-20 opening-week loss to the Boilermakers last Saturday. Purdue played without its superstar wide receiver, Rondale Moore. Yet the Hawkeyes still struggled on pass defense. The Hawkeyes have a good running back, too, in Tyler Goodson. Iowa's new QB, Spencer Petras, flashed at times. He connected with eight different receivers. Both teams can move the ball on the ground. Ramsey and Petras are good enough passers to be able to take advantage of this by picking their spots and doing well off play-action.
10-31-20	Northwestern v. Iowa -129		21-20	Loss	-129	49 h 13 m	Show
It comes down to this: I believe Iowa is superior to Northwestern. But the line is short here because Iowa wasn't sharp in an opening-week loss to Purdue while Northwestern crushed Maryland. Now the Wildcats are stepping way up in class here and they're doing it in Iowa City. Iowa's new QB Spencer Petras is going to get better. The Hawkeyees were breaking in a lot of new faces at Purdue. Iowa has the best running back in Tyler Goodson and their defense will prove far more challenging for Northwestern than Maryland's did.
10-30-20	Minnesota -19 v. Maryland	Top	44-45	Loss	-112	58 h 53 m	Show
So much for any Maryland improvement this year. The Terps were crushed 43-3 in their opening game last Saturday. No, it wasn't by any of the Big Ten powers. That 40-point loss came to Northwestern! Minnesota is a better team than the Wildcats. Maryland surrendered 325 yards rushing to Northwestern. Minnesota running back Mohamed Ibrahim is superior to any of the Wildcat running backs. The Gophers have a huge edge in the passing game with QB Tanner Morgan and Rashod Bateman, who could be the best wide receiver in the Big Ten. The Gophers were hoping to defeat Michigan in their opener last Saturday. Didn't happen because the Wolverines had too many edges in the trenches. That won't be the case for the Gophers against this foe. Minnesota should control the line of scrimmage and its skill people are dangerous enough to make this game more of a blowout than the oddsmaker envisions. The Terps need their offense to at least be competitive. It wasn't against Northwestern generating just an early field goal. Taulia Tagovailoa didn't resemble his brother Tua at all. He was a major disappointment. He ended up getting yanked after throwing three interceptions. I have zero confidence that Maryland coach Mike Locksley can fix things, especially in such a short period of a time.