*3 Star Play Under* The Indianapolis Colts haven't had a game all season thus far with more than 41 total points. The first game between these two was 24-0 Jaguars. 

The Colts offense is a mess right now. The offensive line is very bad, injuries have magnified their weaknesses, and Matt Ryan playing behind a bad offensive line has been a mess. Jonathan Taylor is questionable for this game, and if he plays he won't be at full strength. The Jaguars defense is 8th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. 

The Jaguars offense has looked bad the last couple weeks. Jacksonville has been struggling with opposing defenses defending Trevor Lawrence with the two high safeties. Lawrence is making poor decisions and this offense has been very inefficient.  The Colts have been bad on offense, but their defense is 7th in the NFL in yards per play allowed so far this year.

I expect a tight lower scoring battle in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The North Texas Mean Green play at a very fast pace. North Texas ranks 26th out of 131 in the nation in overall pace. The Mean Green have a really good rushing attack. In this case that is a good matchup advantage against a LA Tech team that ranks 127th in rushing play success rate and 124th in YPC. 

LA Tech has been throwing the football more lately. Their offense isn't consistently great, but they have great explosiveness. LA Tech has 16 plays of 30 yards or more this year. They are up against a North Texas defense that ranks 111th in YPP allowed. 

North Texas has played in four straight games that have gone over this total. Their games have finished with 86, 85, 78, and 73 points. 

LA Tech has allowed an average of 44.75 points per game against FBS opponents this year. The Bulldogs defense is a major weakness in their new system.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Devin Leary was injured last week in the contest vs. Florida State. Leary hasn't been fantastic by any means this year, but the NC State offense without him looked very rough.

Jack Chambers played for the last 5 minutes of the third quarter and the whole 4th quarter against Florida State. That game was very much up for grabs, and NC State only attempted one pass with him under center. They went into a run only offense and played at a slow pace. They were extremely conservative.

Syracuse ranks 16th in the nation in defensive success rate allowed. I don't expect NC State to have much success here. Leary is doubtful for this game and if he plays he will be less than 100 percent. 

The NC State defense is easily the best defense Syracuse has faced thus far. The Wolfpack have some studs who will be good NFL players in the next couple years. Syracuse ranks 112th out of 131 teams in the country in tempo. 

A slow paced game where both offenses should be fairly conservative. I see the defenses having the upper hand.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota defense ranks #6 in success rate allowed so far this year. Illinois ranks #2 in success rate allowed. I think these are two top 10 or 15 defenses in the country. 

Minnesota is 129th in tempo. The Golden Gophers run on 65% of their offensive plays. That can lead to some very long drives that kill the clock in a big way. If they aren't scoring touchdowns, but move the ball some it can really help an under. Illinois has a fantastic defensive coordinator in Ryan Walters. I think Walters is one of the top defensive minds in the country, and I expect him to have a good game plan for the Golden Gophers rushing attack.

Illinois will likely be led by backup quarterback Artur Sitkowski in this one. Tommy Devito suffered an ankle injury in the team's last game. The Fighting Illini are going to need to run the ball even more than normal here. I would expect Minnesota to try to load up the box and dare Illinois to beat them through the air.

The long range weather calls for 15-20 mph winds in this game. If that does come to fruition it is just a nice bonus for a game that should be dominated by the defenses.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Penn State Nittany Lions and Michigan Wolverines meet up in Ann Arbor in a huge Big Ten clash on Saturday afternoon. Penn State and Michigan both come into this game unbeaten. 

Penn State comes into this one with the #21 ranked defense in terms of YPP. The Nittany Lions have a really good defensive line that isn't likely to get pushed around by Michigan like most teams will. Penn State has only given up more than 14 points in a game once this year, so this is a very solid defense.

Michigan's defense ranks #4 in the country in yards per play on defense. This team hasn't faced many good offenses though, so that ranking is a bit too high. Still, I don't consider Penn State a really good offense either. Penn State's offensive line is still a major problem, and Michigan should be able to take advantage of that weakness.

Michigan has a new offensive coordinator, and they are playing much slower so far this year. Michigan ranks 119th in the nation in tempo. Penn State is 73rd in tempo so they are a bit slow as well.

This is a high total for two teams playing slowly. Additionally, the long range weather forecast is calling for 20 mph winds during this game. I like the bet even without the weather, but that is a nice bonus if it happens.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Los Angeles Dodgers offense is the best offense in the majors. The Dodgers have a .337 weighted on base average and they are first in the majors in wRC+ as well.

Blake Snell hasn't had a lot of success against this Dodgers lineup. Snell has allowed a .329 wOBA against the lineup he will face here. Snell struggled against the Mets in his first start in the postseason. 

Tony Gonsolin has been really bad (in a fairly small sample size) in the postseason. Gonsolin has a 9.45 ERA in his postseason career. He has a 1.80 WHIP in the playoffs. Gonsolin faces a Padres lineup that is healthy now and with Machado swinging it well and Soto against a right handed pitcher, this is a really dangerous offense.

This is a very low total in a game with a ton of extremely talented hitters. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Diego Padres certainly improved their lineup during the season. Juan Soto is fantastic and the Padres lineup is pretty deep as well with Cronenworth and Myers toward the bottom of the order proving to be very solid against lefties.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have the best lineup in baseball, and they are particularly good against right handed pitching. The Dodgers have a ridiculously good .340 wOBA against right handed pitching this year. 

Mike Clevinger has been subpar this year. He has had a lot of trouble with injuries, and he has been ill leading up to this start as well. Clevinger faced the Dodgers three times in the regular season this year. He never went more than 5 innings, and he allowed 4 runs or more in every start. The Dodgers should get plenty of scoring opportunities in this one as well.

Julio Urias is a very good pitcher, but he tends to get lifted earlier than most pitchers. The Dodgers bullpen has been inconsistent this season.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Kansas City Chiefs have a top three offense in the NFL. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs lit up what I still believe is a very good defense in Tampa Bay last weekend. They put up 41 points in that contest.

Kansas City has scored 32 points or more in each of their last five meetings with the Raiders. The Chiefs have far too many weapons for this bottom ten Raiders defense to slow them down consistently. 

The Raiders have a pretty good quarterback in Derek Carr and he now has a great receiver in Adams on the outside. Las Vegas has put up 396 and 385 yards in their last two games. The Raiders have a good offensive line and I like Josh Jacobs in the backfield as well. Kansas City's defense is no better than mediocre.

The weather conditions for this one are perfect. I would expect to see both teams moving the ball well in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Cowboys will have Cooper Rush at quarterback again here. Rush has done a good job at the helm. The team has been more cautious with their offense though. There have been a lot of shorter passes and more rushing plays than I would expect to see with Dak Prescott at quarterback. The Cowboys are relying too much on Lamb at wide receiver. That could be an issue as he lines up against an elite cornerback in this one.

The Cowboys defense ranks in the top five in the NFL in nearly every statistical category. The Rams offense ranks second last in the NFL in yards per play so far this year. Matthew Stafford has struggled mightily through the season. 

Tony Pollard is questionable for this game and he has played very well this year. The Cowboys offensive line is also badly banged up. The Rams lack secondary options for Cooper Kupp as well.

I like this one to stay low scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Commanders put up 28 and 27 points on the Jaguars and Lions in the first couple weeks of the year. They have put up only 8 and 10 points against the Eagles and the Cowboys the last couple weeks. 

Washington's Carson Wentz has good enough pass catchers in McLaurin and Samuel and the rest of the group to do some damage against a Titans secondary that is one of the worst in the NFL. Washington's numbers from the last two weeks mean little since both the Eagles and the Cowboys defenses are very strong. The Titans gave up 21 points even against a weak Giants offense and they allowed 5.8 ypp against the Colts and 6.1 ypp against the Raiders. 

The Titans offense does a good job on scripted drives because they are well coached. That should led to early points here against a Washington defense that I believe isn't very well coached. Ryan Tannehill doesn't have the weapons he has had in recent seasons, but he still has enough. 

The Titans linebacker unit has been hit with a rash of injuries that should slow the defense down some here.

The over is hitting at a clip of 59% dating back to 2004 in weeks 3 through 5 in the NFL when the total is 43 or lower and the wind is 7 mph or lower on average. The forecast calls for 7 mph here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Utah State Aggies offense has been really inefficient so far this year, but I don't think they can continue to be this bad in the long run.

Logan Bonner was playing banged up and is now out for the year. Cooper Legas is the new starting quarterback for Utah State. Legas looked pretty good against a solid BYU team last week. Utah State put up 26 points in a losing cause. 

Utah State ranks 15th in the nation in tempo. The Aggies have been unsustainably bad in the red zone. They have only even scored a point of any kind on 9/16 trips into the red zone so far this year. A bunch of interceptions/fumbles in the red zone will do that to you. This will improve in time. 

Air Force is a great offense led by Daniels. The Falcons will be able to run and mix in some explosive throws against a Utah State defense that is worse than a year ago. They really miss Justin Rice at the linebacker spot. Air Force is 6th in success rate on offense, and I expect them to be efficient here.

The weakness of the Air Force defense is their secondary. They haven't faced even a mediocre passing attack this year. They have faced Northern Iowa, Colorado, Wyoming, Nevada, and Navy. Utah State has the best QB and wide receiver talent they have faced.

This game was 49-45 last year. I don't expect that high of a score again, but this total is set too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Ole Miss Rebels are thought of as a run and gun team that would play a bunch of overs. The Rebels do play very fast. They rank third in the nation in tempo. They run the football a lot though. They also are one of the most improved defenses in the country. 

Ole Miss shut down the Kentucky offense last week in a really impressive performance. Kentucky scored only 19 points and this Kentucky team has a very good runner in Rodriguez and a good QB in Levis. 

Vanderbilt has slowed their pace down to a crawl in their last couple games. I think Clark Lea realizes his team is overmatched against their opponents now, and they are going to try to stick around by running it more and playing at a slow pace. 

Ole Miss will run it a bunch and mix in some deep passes from Jaxson Dart. Dart hasn't been efficient through the air so far this season. 

Ole Miss isn't giving up any big plays on defense so far this year. They are 4th in the nation at preventing explosive plays.

Ole Miss will likely be playing from a large lead and a running clock later in the game is a plus.

The under is 11-0 in Ole Miss' last 11 games against an FBS opponent. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Duke Blue Devils have a very good quarterback in Riley Leonard. Leonard is averaging more than six yards per carry. Leonard also has a completion percentage of 72.0% on the season thus far. 

Duke ranks 10th in rushing play success rate in the country. The Blue Devils have a huge edge over the Georgia Tech run defense who ranks 119th in rushing play success rate allowed. Duke is 15th in yards per play in the country. They haven't scored less than 27 points in a game all year. They have scored 30 points or more in all but one game. 

Georgia Tech's game was extremely low scoring last week, but that was at least somewhat thanks to the wind and rain in Pittsburgh. The Yellow Jackets rushing attack impressed me in that game though. GA Tech had 232 rushing yards in that game. Duke's defense is middle of the road in general.

The Yellow Jackets have been abysmal in the red zone, but that should positively regress toward the mean in the long haul. Georgia Tech has scored on only 10 of their 18 trips into the red zone this year. They have just 6 TD's in those 18 trips inside the 20 yard line. 

This is a low total for a game with two questionable defenses. Duke has become an impressive offense with Leonard this year.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tennessee offense is very good. They have only played one good defense this year though. That was the Pitt game, where Tennessee only scored 27 in regulation. Wins over Ball State and Akron weren't much of a test. 

LSU has looked pretty good on defense for most of the year. I'm not impressed with the LSU offense though. Jayden Daniels is banged up, but expected to try to play through it here. The best play for the LSU offense has been Jayden Daniels scrambling and making something happen on a busted play. I'm not sure he'll be able to do that as much here. LSU threw for just 85 yards against Auburn last week. 

LSU is likely going to try to slow the pace of this game down. I don't think Brian Kelly wants a shootout against this Volunteers team. 

Both of these teams are run heavy, which will mean a moving clock for much of the game. 

I think this one will be relatively high scoring, but this is a very high total. A 35-24 or 34-28 type game still says under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The MLB playoffs get underway with this game in Cleveland. Both of these teams are scrappy teams who have some weaknesses, but they have had successful seasons despite those shortcomings.

Cleveland isn't good against left handed pitching. Cleveland was 27th out of 30 teams in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitchers this year. Shane McClanahan is a good lefty. 

Tampa Bay was 26th in wOBA overall in the last month of the season. The Rays lack power in their lineup and they have a couple key injuries.

Shane Bieber wasn't quite as dominant this year, but he is an excellent starter who the Rays are likely to have a tough time against.

Both teams have very deep bullpens and they wouldn't be afraid to use them as they come into this one rested.

The weather here calls for a temperature of around 50 degrees with winds blowing in from center field at about 12 mph. The winds do matter quite a bit at this park.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Reds offense has been miserable down the stretch. Cincinnati's lineup is shorthanded and they have scored 3 runs or less in 11 straight games. The Reds have scored 1 run in four of their last six games. 

The Chicago Cubs offense has scored two runs or less in five of their last nine games. The Cubs have a lot of youth in this lineup right now, and it is hard for them to string together big innings.

Phil Cuzzi is the home plate umpire for this game. He is one of the best five under umpires in baseball. Cuzzi has a called strike percentage of nearly 66% on the year and a strikeout/walk ratio of higher than 3. He'll help as much as he can here.

The weather in Cincinnati is cool and the ball isn't jumping as it would have a couple months ago.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tampa Bay Bucs will get Mike Evans back here. Evans is a star receiver and him back in the lineup will help Tom Brady a bunch. Tampa Bay's offensive line is finally getting healthier as well. Chris Godwin and Julio Jones are both leaning toward being able to play here but they will test things out in warmup before the game. They would be a big bonus for the offense as well.

Kansas City's offense is among the best in the league. They have been the most consistent offense in the NFL the last couple years. Tampa Bay's defense is good, but the Bucs haven't faced an offense nearly as good as this Chiefs offense. 

The Kansas City defense is still a weakness. The Chiefs give up too many big plays and their secondary isn't deep enough. Brady should have a better game here with improved health for the Tampa Bay offense.

A total of 45.5 is awfully low for these two quarterbacks with as many weapons around them as they have. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* This is an early season game being played in a dome. Early season (September and October games) contests with a spread of 7 points or less either way (this one fits) being played in a dome are 225-180 to the over (55.6% overs) since 2004.

Atlanta has scored 27, 27, and 26 points in their three games so far this season. The Falcons offense has been working very well with Marcus Mariota at the helm. I've been impressed with their play calling early in the season. 

Cleveland has scored 29, 26, and 30 points in their three games this year. Jacoby Brissett has been excellent at quarterback. The Browns have the best running back in the NFL in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt is a great backup. The Browns offensive line should dominate on the line of scrimmage here. 

The Browns defense is badly banged up. Myles Garrett was in a car accident and is a game time decision. Clowney is also a game time decision. Denzel Ward will try to play, but is less than 100 percent. 

The Falcons defense has allowed 23 points or more in every game, and the Browns may be the best offense they have played yet (or the Rams who scored 31 points). 

I like both teams to score throughout this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Pitt Panthers rank 126th out of 131 teams in the country in pace of play. Pitt also runs the ball on nearly 62% of their offensive snaps. The Panthers are very happy to run the ball and use up the clock, especially when they have a lead later in the game. Pitt is a huge 24 point favorite in this game against lowly Georgia Tech. They should be in the role of running the ball and using up the clock a bunch in this game.

Georgia Tech's offense has scored 10, 10, and 0 points against their three FBS opponents this year. Those opponents were Clemson, Ole Miss, and UCF. The Yellow Jackets now face a Pitt team with a great defensive line. The Georgia Tech offensive line is in trouble in this one.

The Pitt offense has only been mediocre. They rank 61st in the nation in yards per play. Georgia Tech's defense has at least been very good at preventing explosive plays (20th best in the country).

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* I really like the South Alabama defense. Kane Wommack is a tremendous defensive mind. The Jaguars are 29th in the country in yards per play allowed so far this year. They are 19th in YPC allowed. Louisiana is 109th in rushing play success rate on offense. They will try to, but I don't think the Ragin' Cajuns will have success running the football against this Jaguars front. Louisiana has been really inconsistent in the passing game too, and they really haven't played a good secondary yet.

Louisiana's offense ranks only 100th in the nation in yards per play on offense despite facing a schedule of SE Louisiana, E Michigan, Rice, and UL Monroe. That's a terrible schedule of defenses.

The Louisiana defense is 52nd in defensive success rate allowed. They have been really bad in the red zone, but I think that shows there is some regression to the mean coming for them in the red zone. Opponents have scored 10 TD's in 13 trips into the red zone against them.

Neither of these teams really want to play all that fast, and this total is at a point where a 28-20 type game stays under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The weather report for this game is looking worse as it gets closer. These are two teams who usually rely on the pass very heavily, but that could change some here.

The forecast is calling for rain during the day on Saturday with sustained winds of about 18 mph and gusts to 33 mph. That kind of wind alone can make a large difference, and with rain combined it is even more of a difference maker.

Michigan State has a very good run defense, so if there is increased running in this game it certainly helps the Spartans defense.

Michigan State offensively isn't nearly as efficient when running the ball as they were last year (losing Kenneth Walker makes a big difference for this team), and Maryland should be able to at least slow them down.

With this weather report just 48 hours out, I'm going to take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UConn Huskies rank 107th in the nation in tempo. Even when they are losing, UConn is playing slowly and running the football a lot. UConn is running the football on 63% of their offensive plays on the season. They are playing with a backup quarterback since their clear best starting QB was injured early in the year.

Fresno State will be without star quarterback Jake Haener for this game. Fife is a decent backup, but he is clearly a step down from Haener. The Bulldogs will likely be a bit more conservative on offense with him.

The weather here calls for rain which will be heavy at times during the game. A wind of about 11 or 12 mph and gusts to 20 mph are also a factor. This kind of weather is a clear plus for the under. 

The weather combined with the backup QB's makes me like the under here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* I think Iowa has a top 3 or 4 defense in the country. Iowa's linebackers are elite as always, and their secondary is tremendous once again this year. Iowa was embarrassed defensively by Michigan in the Wolverines 45-3 win in the Big Ten Championship last season. This unit has absolutely been looking forward to this game to try to show they can stop the Michigan offensive attack.

Michigan's offense is playing much slower this year. They have a new offensive coordinator, and Michigan now ranks 109th in tempo in the country. The Wolverines haven't even played a team with a top 50 defense so far this year. They'll be tested in a big way here.

The Iowa offense is one of the worst in the country. They are 128th out of 131 in yards per play. Iowa has a terrible offensive line that is awful in pass protection and weak in run blocking. Spencer Petras is a bad quarterback, and I think Iowa will do their best to try to run the ball a lot here.

The Michigan defense played pretty well against a really good Maryland offense. The Terrapins had only 5.4 ypp on offense in that one. Michigan's defense is a top 6 or 8 defense in the country.

PFF grades these two defenses as the #1 and #6 teams in the country in terms of tackling. They also grade them as the #1 and #2 overall defenses in the country.

The total is low, but it is low for a reason. The pace will be very slow and I don't expect many big plays here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Georgia State Panthers rank top ten in the country in pace. They will push the tempo every time that they have the ball. 

Georgia State wants to run the football as much as they can, which is actually good in this case. Army ranks 129th in rushing play success rate allowed. This is a much weaker Army run defense than they have had in recent seasons. The Panthers should be able to have some success here.

Army's rushing attack is tremendous. Army is actually successfully mixing in a few more passing plays than they have in most recent seasons as well. This offense is first in the nation in explosiveness so far this year. They have a whopping 12 plays of 30 yards or more already this season. Georgia State's defense isn't very good. They have already allowed 74 plays of 10 yards or more this year. Army should break quite a few big gainers in this one.

Army is better offensively and worse defensively than they were a year ago. Georgia State is playing even faster than they did last season.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wisconsin Badgers defense looked bad last weekend against Ohio State, but the Buckeyes were firing on all cylinders and they are going to make a lot of defenses look bad this year. Wisconsin is still a well coached defense by Jim Leonhard and they should be well prepared for this game.

Illinois is going to want to run the ball and get it to Chase Brown even in the short passing game. Brown is a good back, and they should get yardage here, but I expect it to be in slow long drives rather than explosive plays. Wisconsin has been a good red zone defense for many years now, and I think they can force Illinois to kick field goals.

Wisconsin's offense is all about the running game. They are running on 65% of their plays on offense. The Illinois defense has been fantastic so far this year. Illinois is second in the nation in rushing play success rate allowed. They just shutout a Chattanooga (FCS) team that is actually pretty good. Chattanooga nearly beat Kentucky last year. Illinois also held Virginia to 3 points earlier this year. 

Wisconsin plays at a bottom ten pace in the country, and Illinois should be more than happy to run and try to use up the time as well. This game will have a running clock for much of the time.

Illinois has scored a grand total of 7 points on Wisconsin the last two times they have played them. The Illinois defense has gotten a lot better under Ryan Walters too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Corey Kluber comes back to Cleveland to take on his old team. Kluber has been a bit up and down this season. Recently he has had some poor outings, but advanced metrics show it has primarily been poor batted ball luck that is responsible for those poor showings. He actually has a pretty good FIP in recent starts.

Shane Bieber has been throwing it well of late. Bieber is up against a Rays team that isn't a very good offense against right handed pitching.

Both of these teams are really deep and very good in the bullpen. 

The forecast calls for significant wind coming in from Lake Erie during this game. There will be rain as well through some of the day. There is a chance for a delay or even a postponement. If this game is played though, the weather is a plus for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Miami Dolphins showed their impressive fire power in their come from behind win over the Ravens last weekend. Tua Tagovailoa has two star receivers on the outside in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The new Dolphins offense scheme is allowing Tua to take more shots down the field. 

The Buffalo Bills offense has looked like a well oiled machine this season. Josh Allen is playing like a quarterback with a chip on his shoulder. He has a good offensive line in front of him, and a group of excellent wide receivers. Buffalo is third in the NFL averaging 6.7 yards per play. 

While the Bills have a quality defense at full strength, they are expected to be without 4 starters on defense in this game. The Miami defense is aggressive, but that should also give Allen the chance to beat them with some explosive plays down field. 

Take the over.

*3 Star Play Under* The San Jose State Spartans have a tremendous defensive line. They are great run stuffers. That is really important in a game like this because Western Michigan really wants to run the football as much as possible. Western Michigan's quarterback play has been brutal. They badly miss Eleby and the star receivers they have lost in recent seasons. I don't trust Western Michigan to be able to take advantage of San Jose State's relative weakness in the secondary.

San Jose State's offensive line really holds back their offense. The Spartans rank 127th out of 131 teams in the country in offensive line yards so far this year. They are also 100th in explosiveness, so they aren't getting many big plays. 

Two teams who have weak offensive lines and struggle in 3rd and short situations here. I think this is a game where even when they get into the red zones, it could be field goals instead of touchdowns several times.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves have one of the worst defenses in the country. Arkansas State has allowed a whopping 14 plays of 30 yards or more already this year. They rank 128th out of 131 in explosiveness allowed this season. 

Old Dominion's offensive numbers don't look very good this year, but they have played a good slate of defenses. Virginia is a much improved defense. Virginia Tech is a good defense. East Carolina is a pretty solid defense as well. Arkansas State will easily be the worst defense they have faced. Old Dominion plays at the 23rd fastest tempo of any team in the country. The Monarchs should get more scoring chances here.

Arkansas State is a pretty good offense led by former Florida State quarterback James Blackmon. The Red Wolves are capable of putting up a big number on offense as well, and they showed that last week against Memphis. Old Dominion's defense is a below average defense. Arkansas State's offensive line has struggled in pass protection, but ODU doesn't have a good pass rush.

The weather looks very nice for this game. I think this one is a few points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Ole Miss Rebels are thought of as an over team because of their pace, but the under is actually 9-1 in their last 10 games. Ole Miss runs the football a lot which keeps the clock moving. They have run the ball on 64.1% of their snaps so far this season. 

Ole Miss is also much better on defense than they were in the past. In fact, this year's defense looks to be the best Ole Miss defense in quite a few years. The Rebels haven't played good offenses, but it is still really impressive for them to rank 8th in the nation in yards per play allowed. They shut out Georgia Tech last weekend.

Tulsa's biggest weakness is their offensive line. The Golden Hurricanes have already allowed 10 sacks this year. Ole Miss is going to be in the backfield here. The Rebels have gotten 13 sacks already this year. 

The tempo played here will be quick, but I expect Ole Miss to have the lead and look to be running the clock in the fourth quarter. This is a very high number.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Both of these are teams I'm looking to bet overs with throughout the season when given the opportunity. I like the matchup here. 

Memphis has an explosive offense led by quarterback Seth Henigan. Henigan is an underrated passer who can make something out of nothing at times. The Tigers have enough weapons around him to be very dangerous.

The Memphis defense is weak, especially against the run. North Texas has a strong offensive line. The Mean Green offense has worked nicely all year. Their only issue has been turnovers in key spots that stall out drives. North Texas has 399 yards or more of total offense in every game this year.

Memphis has seen the total get to 72 and 76 points in two of their games already this year. North Texas has seen two of their games get to a total of 85 points. 

Both teams rank in the top 25 in the country in tempo. Both teams rank in the top five in the country in offensive plays of 30 yards or more. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Indiana Hoosiers rank first in the nation in tempo. Indiana is getting a bunch of quick snaps off. The Hoosiers aren't that efficient as an offense, but they do have 10 plays of 30 yards or longer already this season.

Indiana has also been terrible in the red zone so far this year. The Hoosiers have only scored on 10 of 14 trips into the red zone. They have a touchdown on only 6 trips out of 14 in the red zone. Those are among the worst in the country. That is something that should regress in a positive way a bit through the year.

Cincinnati's offense has impressed me this year. They are averaging 7.24 yards per play on the season. The Bearcats already have 11 plays of 30 yards or more. Cincinnati ranks 20th in the nation in offensive explosiveness. Indiana's defense is particularly weak against the pass (106th in passing play success rate allowed) and Cincinnati's passing game has been good this season. The Bearcats have sped up their pace of play as well, ranking 46th out of 131 in terms of tempo.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This total is set very low, but it is set very low for good reasons. 

The Pittsburgh offense hasn't been able to do much of anything this year. Pittsburgh won in Cincinnati solely because they forced 5 turnovers. The Steelers couldn't get anything going against New England either. Pittsburgh is averaging just 4.3 yards per play on the season (30th out of 32 teams). 

Cleveland's offense has been pretty good, but they haven't played a good defense yet. The Browns are very limited in what they can do offensively with Brissett under center. Cleveland is a very good running team, but I think the Steelers will load up the box in this one.

A huge key to this game should be the weather. Cleveland is expected to have 18 mph sustained winds through this game, and wind gusts of 35 mph during the game are expected. This kind of weather definitely changes the game. What does it lead to? It leads to both teams running the football more than normal and being more conservative in their play calling. That is certainly a help to the defenses. 

The Browns and Steelers have played many tight low scoring games against each other in the past. The weather adds in another big plus here. Both teams have weak quarterbacks and aren't very explosive on offense.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tampa Bay Rays offense has been struggling of late, especially against right handed pitching. The Rays have been held to two runs or fewer in four of their last nine games. 

Cristian Javier has been dealing. Javier has a 2.36 ERA since the All Star Break. He hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in any of those starts. Javier is striking out 10.29 batters per nine innings. 

Shane McClanahan has been tremendous this year. He has a sparkling 1.50 ERA and a 2.61 FIP in his last four starts. He hasn't allowed a run in his last two starts. Though the Astros do have a very good lineup, McClanahan has done well against them in limited action (.227 wOBA allowed). 

Both teams have very deep and solid bullpens to back up the starters.

Brian O'Nora is the home plate umpire and he ranks in the top ten umpires in the majors in strikes called percentage as well as strikeout/walk ratio. He's a boost to the under's chances here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Las Vegas Raiders offense upgraded in a big way in the offseason. Devante Adams is a top five receiver in the country. The Raiders now have Adams and Darren Waller as elite pass catching options for Derek Carr. Josh Jacobs is a very good all purpose running back. Carr is very capable and he should have a good season with the improved talent around him.

Arizona plays quickly and the Cardinals still have enough weapons to score plenty. Kyler Murray is a bit inconsistent, but running quarterbacks have hurt this Raiders defense in the past. Murray is well known for late scoring drives when the team is down, and they are a clear underdog here. 

Early season games played in a dome have been good overs in the past. Specifically, early season (September or October games) that are non-divisional and have a spread of 7 points or fewer are 56% to the over since 2004. This one fits that system. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tampa Bay Bucs have a top three defense in the NFL. In fact, it might be the best defense in the NFL. Tampa Bay should be able to get pressure in the backfield against a Saints offensive line that is a relative weakness this year. They won't have to deal with Alvin Kamara, who is expected to miss this game due to a rib injury.

The Saints have really slowed down Tom Brady and the Bucs well in the recent past. The Bucs aren't nearly as good on offense now as they were in those games either. It is still Brady and they'll bounce back some over time, but the Bucs offensive line is now a weakness. Godwin is out and just about every other pass catcher is at least banged up some here. 

Without Kamara, the Saints have a weak running back group, but they are likely to still want to run the ball quite a bit. Look for both defenses to come up with tackles for a loss in key parts of this contest.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Rocky Long's defense at New Mexico is a tough one. Rocky Long is one of the best defensive minds in the country. Many coaches have tried to copy his 3-3-5 defense because of how innovative it has been. New Mexico is a tough nosed defense that will make you fight for yards. They don't usually give up big plays either.

New Mexico's offense is awful. The Lobos play at an extremely slow pace and they are very run heavy. So far this year, 65% of their offensive snaps have been running plays. The Lobos should end the season as a bottom ten offense in terms of efficiency, and they'll be bottom 20 in terms of tempo as well.

UTEP has a pretty weak secondary, but they are very good against the run. New Mexico isn't the type of team that will take advantage of the UTEP secondary. Look for UTEP to stuff the run here.

UTEP won 20-13 when these two played last year. UTEP lost their two star receivers Cowing and Garrett and they are clearly worse on offense this season.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves had major problems with giving up big plays last year. They are back at it again this year. Arkansas State has allowed six plays of 40 yards or more on the season. They have serious problems in the secondary. Memphis is a team that should be able to once again take advantage of those issues. 

Memphis put up 55 points in Jonesboro last season. The Tigers rolled up 680 yards of total offense. Memphis had 417 passing yards. Seth Henigan is back, and he's an above average quarterback who isn't afraid to take shots down the field. Memphis was very good on offense last week against Navy, and I think they'll look really good again here.

Arkansas State put up 50 points in their loss to Memphis last year. I don't think they'll score that many here, but the Red Wolves should be able to move the ball too and score enough. James Blackmon is capable of some explosive plays of his own, and I don't rate this Memphis defense very highly.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Houston Cougars offense has been a big disappointment so far this season. With Dana Holgorsen being such a good offensive mind, I find it hard to believe they won't improve through the season. Clayton Tune is a good quarterback, and he has an elite receiver in Tank Dell.

Jalen Daniels and this Kansas offense look tremendous. They have some real talent in the backfield, and Daniels has been underrated for too long now. 

This Houston defense is still pretty good, but they aren't the dominant force they were a year ago. The Kansas defense is a major weakness still. West Virginia put up 42 points in regulation against them last week. 

Look for both teams to do quite a bit of scoring here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Ole Miss has been a good under team of late. Why? The Rebels have been running the ball a lot more than most people realize. Lane Kiffin's team does play quickly, but there is a lot of running clock because they are running the football on nearly 60% of their offensive plays the last couple seasons. 

With a total of 60 or higher, the under is a perfect 7-0 in Ole Miss' last 7 contests. Ole Miss has allowed only 13 points in their first two games. They haven't played great offenses, but the Georgia Tech offense isn't good either. Ole Miss picked up a lot of new transfers on defense, and so far they have been working out.

Georgia Tech has been pretty good against the run so far this year. Ole Miss will get their yards on their ground here, but the Yellow Jackets have at least improved a bit on the run defense.

The Yellow Jackets offense is very short on playmakers. Sims will likely be under a lot of pressure from the Ole Miss defense that will likely blitz quite a bit in this one.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Kansas State talked about possibly playing faster this year, but the Wildcats rank 121st out of 131 in tempo so far this year. Tulane also ranks as slower than the average team. 

Both of these teams like to run the football as much as possible and mix in a deep pass here and there. Those plays can be explosive at times. 

I think the weather forecast here matters quite a bit. There are going to be showers and thunderstorms off and on. More importantly, winds of 17 mph with gusts to 32 mph are in the forecast. This kind of weather should lead to both teams being more conservative. Those explosive plays should be harder to come by.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Virginia Cavaliers hired an offensive coordinator who has decided to change the way they play. Virginia continually tried to run the football last week despite being down big against Illinois. The Cavaliers are no longer the fun uptempo offense that just airs it out with Brennan Armstrong. 

Armstrong is a good quarterback, but there are a couple key problems for the Virginia passing game. First, Virginia's offensive line is one of the three or four worst in the country. Second, they lack playmakers on the outside in a big way. 

Old Dominion ranks 131st in offensive success rate. The Monarchs are a scrappy team, but they aren't efficient at all on offense. Virginia's defense has actually improved under their new defensive coordinator this year. Their biggest improvement has been not allowing big plays on offense.

I see this as a game where both offensive coaches keep it more conservative than many would think. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Yankees have scored 10 runs in each of their last two contests. The Yankees offense is back in a big way of late. This is still one of the very best lineups in baseball. Nick Pivetta goes against them here, and Pivetta has been smashed by the Yankees in the past. In 86 plate appearances, the Yankees hitters have a whopping .381 wOBA against Pivetta and 7 home runs.

Gerrit Cole has pitched terribly at Fenway Park, especially the last couple years. Cole has a 6.55 ERA in his last four starts at Fenway (last year and this year). This lineup is full of guys who have bothered Cole in his career.

The weather is a big deal at Fenway, and the wind is expected to be blowing out at 10 mph here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The New England Patriots offense was a mess in the preseason. I know it is the preseason and you don't want to overreact, but I don't like the changes in the offensive coaching staff in the offseason. The Patriots offense has been having far too many miscommunications and big negative plays. This isn't a roster that is developed in a way to get big plays on third and long. They can't get behind the sticks on a consistent basis. Miami's pass rush is excellent, and I think the Dolphins get into the backfield a lot in this one.

The Miami Dolphins offense did add a major weapon in Hill in the offseason, but there are still many questions about this offense as well. How will Tua play under pressure against a good New England defense? Tua isn't a guy who likes to take a bunch of shots downfield either. The Patriots secondary is above average.

Both of these defenses are above average. Both offenses tend to stay away from taking big chances. I see a lot of moving clock and the defenses coming up with big stops here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New Orleans Saints have a lot more weapons to work with this year. Chris Olave is a great add on the outside. He's a reliable receiver who has both speed and great hands. Michael Thomas is questionable for this one, but beat writers say he is progressing toward probable for this one. Alvin Kamara is cleared to play and he's such a great threat in both the running and passing game. Jameis Winston is back and healthy, and he is a big upgrade in the passing game from what the Saints had late last year.

Atlanta's Marcus Mariota played well in the preseason. The Falcons offense was really crisp most of the time in the preseason. The Saints defense is likely being overrated by many. The safeties are down from a year ago even with Mathieu here. While the Saints defense was good a year ago, their overall numbers were also a bit skewed because of their slow ball control offense. The defense will give up more points this year.

This is an early season game played in a dome. The angle has been strong to the over especially with a close spread. When the home team is favored by less than 7 or is the underdog in September or October dome overs are at 56.2%. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Baylor Bears defeated the BYU Cougars 38-24 last season. Baylor rolled up 534 yards of total offense in that one. BYU put up 409 yards of offense. BYU actually had 7.4 yards per play to 7.1 yards per play for Baylor. The offenses had a big advantage in that game a season ago.

BYU returned all their starters from a year ago on defense. They weren't very good on defense though. I think they will improve some, but I don't think BYU's defense is their strong suit. The Cougars are excellent on the offensive line, and they have an underrated quarterback in Hall. BYU also has two strong receivers on the outside.

Baylor's defense is very strong on the defensive line, but the Baylor linebackers and secondary are clearly down from a year ago. I think BYU can hit some big plays on this Baylor defense.

Baylor's offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes has done a tremendous job putting his quarterbacks in a situation to succeed. Baylor's Blake Shapen is protected by an elite offensive line, and against an average BYU defense I think they can put up points as well.

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Mexico State Aggies have a terrible offense. They put up just 91 yards of total offense against Minnesota last week. Yes Minnesota is a good defense, but that is still a terrible showing. Jerry Kill's New Mexico State team wants to play as slowly as possible and run the football a lot. That plays into the strength of the UTEP defense. The UTEP Miners defense is susceptible against great passing attacks, but their defensive front is excellent against the run. I think New Mexico State will have a hard time moving the ball here.

UTEP just gave up a bunch of points against Oklahoma. Oklahoma plays extremely fast, and to say New Mexico State is a huge step down from Oklahoma is a massive understatement. UTEP wants to play slowly as well, and they should get their wish here. I expect them to play from the lead and look to establish the run as much as they can.

This total has bumped up enough where I want to go with the under in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Virginia Tech Hokies are a team I have pegged as a team to look to bet unders with. Brent Pry is a good defensive mind, and the Hokies have a strong secondary as they generally do. The linebacker unit is a major strength as well.

Virginia Tech's offense is limited. The offensive line is one of the worst in the conference, and there aren't good options at wide receiver. Grant Wells hasn't consistently proven he can be that guy at quarterback. The Hokies will likely play at a slightly slower than average pace.

Boston College lost 4 guys from their offensive line from last season. The Eagles offensive line struggled badly in their season opener against Rutgers. Rutgers doesn't have a very good defensive front either. While Jurkovic is definitely a good quarterback, he'll be in a tough spot here. It will be a weak offensive line in front of him and a strong VA Tech secondary against him.

This projects as a game where both offenses struggle to put positive plays together consistently. I would expect them to settle for field goals several times as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Nebraska Cornhuskers play at an extremely quick pace. Nebraska ranks 19th in tempo so far this year. Casey Thompson has been a good fit at quarterback for the Cornhuskers. Nebraska already has 34 plays of 10 yards or more in two games. They now face a very weak Georgia Southern defense that is unlikely to be able to slow them down.

Georgia Southern has decided to run the spread and play very fast under Clay Helton this year. Georgia Southern played very fast last week even into the fourth quarter when they had a big lead against an FCS team. 

The Nebraska defense has been really weak so far this year. Nebraska ranks 68th in the country in yards per play allowed despite playing North Dakota and Northwestern (not a good offense). 

The pure pace of this game makes me think both teams will have a lot of chances for points.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The FIU Panthers won 38-37 over FCS Bryant in their first game. FIU was extremely fortunate to win that game. Bryant put up 6.0 yards per play in that game. It's important to note that it isn't like Bryant is some really good FCS program either. They lost 35-14 last year at Akron and only had 146 yards of total offense in that game. 

FIU has some major problems on their defenses. Bryant had a whopping 8 plays of 20 yards or more in that season opener against FIU. 

FIU's offense played at an ultra fast pace in their season opener. They were snapping it on average at between 18 and 19 seconds between plays. That would have been the fastest in the country last year.

Texas State wants to play really fast under Jake Spavital as well. They finally have a good quarterback to work with in Layne Hatcher. Texas State's offensive line had trouble against Nevada's solid defensive front, but I would expect Hatcher to have a lot more time to throw it in this game.

The Texas State defense has been a major problem for years now and I expect the same again this season. 

A lot of pace for a total set this low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* South Alabama is a good defensive team under Kane Wommack. Wommack did a great job with the Indiana defense, and they have dropped off badly since her left. He's doing a really good job with this South Alabama defense as well.

Central Michigan just had an extremely high scoring game against Oklahoma State, and that certainly gives me some pause, but Oklahoma State played at a lightning fast tempo in that one. Central Michigan also put up most of their offense after Oklahoma State had built a massive lead and had backups in on defense.

I expect this game to play out differently. Look for Central Michigan to try to run the football with star running back Lew Nichols. I think they'll have some success, but South Alabama was good at preventing big plays last year. 

South Alabama's offensive line is a question mark, and the Central Michigan defensive front is the strength of their defense.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Army games can either be extremely low or very high scoring. Why the big differences? When they face triple option attacks, this Army defense is excellent. They know their assignments extremely well and will consistently shut down those triple option teams. On the other hand, when Army takes on teams with unique offensive attacks that can beat them through the air they can really struggle.

Coastal Carolina put up 38 points on Army last week, and that was a Coastal team that brought back Grayson McCall and virtually nothing else on offense. 

Army did put up 7.3 yards per play on offense, and the Black Knights are likely to have success on the ground here against an UTSA team that lost a lot on the defensive end from a year ago. 

UTSA has a great aerial attack led by Frank Harris and a trio of talented receivers. UTSA is coming off a heartbreaking loss to Houston. The Houston defense is much more talented than Army's defense, and UTSA should find a lot more receivers running open in this one.

The defenses in this one are facing two offenses they are not at all accustomed to facing.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Wake Forest Demon Deacons will continue to play fast on offense, even without Sam Hartman at quarterback. Wake Forest put up 44 points and averaged 6.8 yards per play against VMI in week one. They now take on a Vanderbilt defense that just gave up 31 points and 6.5 yards per play against lowly Elon last week. I think the Demon Deacons will get their points here with their playmakers at the skill positions.

Vanderbilt's offense looks much better with Mike Wright running the show this year. Vanderbilt has 14 plays of 20 yards or more in two games, so there is some real explosiveness to the offense. Wright can make things happen with his legs and that really makes a big difference. 

Both offenses should have success in both the ground game and through the air. Neither of these defenses have been good at pressuring the opposing quarterback.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Cal Quantrill has thrown the ball really well of late. Quantrill has a 1.80 ERA in his last six starts. Quantrill has flown under the radar for the most part, but he has been really solid for the Guardians in the stretch run.

Dylan Bundy starts for the Twins, and he has been stronger late in the season as well. Bundy has a 2.17 ERA in his last six starts. For the season, Bundy has been much better when pitching at home as well, and he pitches on his home field here.

The Guardians bullpen has been the single best bullpen in baseball in the past 30 days. Minnesota ranks in the top ten in bullpen FIP and SIERA in that time as well. The bullpens are a big plus here.

The Guardians have seen only 2 of their last 16 games get past 7 runs total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians lost 6-3 in 11 innings against the Seattle Mariners on Sunday. That one was a bad beat on the under. Cleveland has now played in 12 straight games that have been at 7 runs or less in regulation. 

Brady Singer has been in great form for the Kansas City Royals of late. Singer has a 2.34 ERA and a 2.92 FIP since the All Star Break. Singer has been at his best when pitching at home. 

Triston McKenzie has a .290 wOBA against this Kansas City Royals in his career. He is backed by the best bullpen in the majors in the last month. He has a 2.24 ERA and a 2.89 FIP since the start of July. 

There will be a slight breeze blowing in from center field during this contest.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians have played 11 straight games that have finished at a total of 7 runs or less. Cleveland's starting pitching has been good of late, and their bullpen has been excellent. In the last 30 days, the Cleveland bullpen has a stellar 1.92 ERA. They also rank first in bullpen FIP and SIERA. 

The Seattle Mariners have seen 8 of their last 10 games finish at 7 runs or less. Seattle's bullpen ranks in the top three in the last 30 days in all of the advanced metrics as well. 

George Kirby is a really good young pitcher who has multiple plus pitches. The Guardians lineup isn't nearly as deep as most of the contenders. 

Cal Quantrill has quietly put together an amazing season. Quantrill has a 1.41 ERA and a 2.75 FIP in his last five starts. 

Both of these teams are still playing hard to the finish as they try to get into the postseason. I expect another low scoring contest here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boise State Broncos return 20 of their top 22 tacklers from last year. Andy Avalos is a defensive minded head coach, and I expect this Boise State defense to be very good. Their defensive line is tremendous and their secondary is full of big hitters who have NFL potential. 

Boise State's offense is weak on the offensive line. They averaged just 3.14 yards per carry a year ago. The offensive line is once again the biggest question mark this year. They also lost their star receiver (Shakur) from last year. They lack big play weapons around Hank Bachmeier. 

Oregon State is a well coached offense and they are typically efficient on that side of the ball. I do think the Boise State defense is one of the best they'll see this year. Oregon State prefers to play at a slow pace, and they run the football a lot. That should make their drives take quite a bit of time throughout this contest. 

This is a fairly high total for a game with an excellent defense like Boise State. Totals of 56 or higher in game one are 57.1% to the under since 2006. 

Take the under in this one. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Miami (Ohio) Redhawks have a very good QB in Brett Gabbert. Miami has a good offensive line that gives Gabbert great pass protection most of the time. The Kentucky defense is easily weakest in the secondary. Kentucky will be exposed by good passing attacks this season. Their pass rush is also much weaker than it was a few years ago. Miami should be able to move the ball some here.

Kentucky's offense is very good with Levis leading the way at QB and Rodriguez and a host of really talented RB's in the backfield. The Miami Ohio defense lost a star in Ivan Pace who transferred to Cincinnati. The glaring weakness of the Miami defense is their secondary. Kentucky's Will Levis is better than the quarterbacks Miami is accustomed to facing in MAC play, and I think Kentucky can move the ball in big chunks during this game.

Two passing attacks who should have a big edge and a total that is set pretty low at 51.5. Neither pass rush is very good, so I think the quality quarterbacks will be given time to set their feet and throw a quality ball consistently.

I look for both offenses to be pretty efficient in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oregon Ducks defense actually disappointed much of last year, and even though they lose Thibodeaux I think this Oregon defense will be better. Dan Lanning is a tremendous defensive mind, and there is a lot of talent on this Oregon defense. The linebackers are superb led by Noah Sewell and Justin Flowe. 

The Georgia offense lost a lot. They lost their two star running backs. They went from a top 2 or 3 RB unit in the country to top 20 or so. That's a big dip. Stetson Bennett is a pretty good QB, but he isn't a star and he also lost Pickens and Burton on the outside. Georgia should be content to play very slowly again this year, and I don't think they'll be terribly efficient here.

The Oregon offense will be led by Bo Nix. Nix is capable of big things occasionally, but he isn't consistent enough The Georgia secondary led by Ringo is amazing, and I would be surprised if Oregon moves it much through the air. Oregon lost their two star RB's from a year ago as well (Dye and Verdell). They are running a completely new offense.

While the Georgia defense is down compared to a year ago, they are still an absolutely elite unit. They should be able to get into the Oregon backfield a lot in this one.

Lanning knows the Georgia offense well and that doesn't hurt either.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* In their last 11 games, the Baltimore Orioles have not had a single game finish with more than 7 runs. This Orioles young pitching staff has been tremendous of late. Baltimore's bullpen has been good all year, and of late the starting pitching has been tremendous as well.

Dean Kremer was a highly touted pitching prospect who struggled badly early in his time in the big leagues. Kremer has really come into his own of late. Kremer has a 2.25 ERA and a 2.49 FIP in his last five starts. He has walked only four batters in his last 32 innings pitched. He faces a terrible Oakland A's lineup in this one. Oakland is second to last in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. 

Baltimore is 23rd in wOBA against lefties. JP Sears is a quality young lefty for the A's. Sears had a 1.67 ERA in Triple A this season. He has a 2.28 ERA in his 43 and 1/3 innings pitched so far in the majors. 

I think both young pitchers have the upper hand here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Sonny Cumbie is the new head coach at Louisiana Tech. Cumbie has a history of playing very quickly, and he has said to whoever will listen that this LA Tech team will play much faster than they did a year ago. Skip Holtz's LA Tech teams have been pretty conservative offensively in recent seasons. While the running game doesn't look very good, they do have solid pieces at QB and at WR and TE. 

LA Tech is very weak defensively. The linebackers and the secondary are especially weak spots. I would expect the move to a quicker pace on offense to hurt this fairly thin defense if anything. 

Missouri will start Brady Cook at quarterback this year. Cook has some serious talent at wide receiver. Mookie Cooper and Luther Burden should be a tremendous duo on the outside. They should be able to burn the Tech secondary pretty often in this game. The offensive line is a pretty experienced solid group as well.

The Missouri defense is a weak unit overall. The secondary has major questions all over the place. They allowed far too many big plays a year ago. Tech will be playing extremely fast and getting some chances through the air.

Missouri's offense should be very efficient here, and I expect LA Tech to be playing quick enough to get enough points for this one to get past the posted total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Corey Kluber isn't the dominant starting pitcher he was a few years ago, but he is still a quality starter. Boston only ranks 14th in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. 

Nick Pivetta starts here for the Red Sox. Pivetta is a streaky pitcher. He can look tremendous at times and he can get torched at times. He has been in good form of late, and Pivetta faces a Rays offense that is in their much weaker split. Tampa Bay is 22nd in the majors in wOBA. Pivetta has drastic day/night splits in his career. Pivetta has a career 5.63 ERA when pitching at night. He has a career 3.67 ERA when pitching in the daytime. 

Bill Miller is behind home plate for this one. If you just look at data from the last couple years, Miller has the best strikeout/walk ratio of any umpire. He is a strike caller. He's been a good under umpire for many years now.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Two programs with new coaches and completely different schemes square off in this "Week 0" contest.

Nevada had the second most roster turnover in the country. The Wolf Pack were excellent last year, but about everyone is gone from that team- both the players and coaches. Ken Wilson brings in an offense that will be far more about the running game than the passing game. I expect a slower pace for the Wolf Pack as well. Nevada has a couple quality running backs, but the offensive line is a huge weakness. I would expect Nevada to try to play some lower scoring games this year to make the transition a bit easier.

New Mexico State is now coached by Jerry Kill. The Aggies have a really weak QB room. They will be forced to run the football early and often. Kill has made it clear that this offense will slow down and try to grind away games. I would expect this team to be bottom ten in the country in tempo at a neutral game state. While the defense isn't going to be good, I would expect the biggest improvement here to come in the front seven with the run defense. New Mexico State has improved depth here and Jerry Kill has some good defensive minds on this staff. 

This game should be an ugly one. There is certainly some risk that the defenses are bad enough that the offenses get a little too much scoring going. At the same time, the offenses want to play very slowly and bleed the clock. A ton of question marks here and I'm going to go with this being a sloppy first game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Jeffrey Springs has quietly had a really nice season. Springs has only allowed more than 3 runs in a start once this year (and that was 4). He is averaging just 2.08 walks per nine innings so he pounds the strike zone. The Rays have a pretty good defense behind him, and the Tampa Bay bullpen is deep again this year. Earlier in the season the Red Sox were smashing left handed pitching, but they have cooled off a bit of late. Trevor Story's absence certainly hurts the Boston offense.

Rich Hill starts for Boston here. Tampa Bay is a below average offense. The Rays are without Wander Franco and Brandon Lowe is questionable here with an injury. Hill has pitched much better late in the season in his career.

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire for this game. Eddings has the highest called strike percentage of any home plate umpire in the last six years. Eddings is a strike caller and that should help both of these guys since they both nibble at the corners.

The wind is expected to be blowing in at about 8 or 9 mph during this one as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Toronto Blue Jays host the LA Angels on Friday night. The Angels offense has been dreadful of late. They have scored 3 runs or less in 9 of their last 10 games. On the season, the Angels have the second worst weighted on base average (wOBA) in the majors when playing on the road. They have struggled badly to score away from home. 

Toronto is a good offensive team, but they aren't quite as good against left handed pitching. Detmers is a pretty good lefty. He has a 2.23 ERA since the start of July and his FIP during that time is only 2.55. 

Mitch White starts for the Blue Jays and I see him as a pretty good right handed pitcher. White has allowed just seven runs in his last four starts. 

Take the under in this one. 

*4 Star Play Under* Zac Gallen and Brady Singer are two tremendous young starting pitchers. Gallen has been absolutely fantastic since the All Star Break. Gallen has a 0.92 ERA and a 1.52 FIP in six starts since the break. That includes a shutout thrown at Coors Field. He's up against a below average offense in the Kansas City Royals roster.

Brady Singer has a 1.88 ERA and a 2.54 FIP in his six starts since the All Star Break. Singer has multiple plus pitches and I really like his command of all his pitches. The Arizona Diamondbacks are a below average offense as well.

I think we see a lot of quick innings where there aren't many baserunners in this one. Neither pitcher gives many free passes, and they both have quality strikeout pitches. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Taijuan Walker has a 6.97 ERA and a 6.70 FIP in his last five appearances. Walker has been dealing with some back discomfort, and he is struggling with his command. Walker is a very streaky pitcher, and he comes into this game in really bad form.

Frankie Montas has a 9.00 ERA and a 5.27 FIP in his three starts with the New York Yankees. Montas is striking out just 5.14 batters per nine innings. 

On the season, the New York Mets rank second in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Yankees rank 6th in wOBA against right handed pitching. These are two deep offenses who are more than capable of taking advantage of two pitchers who are in bad form and are putting a lot of traffic on the bases right now.

The weather here calls for winds blowing out toward center field at about 7 mph during this game. Alfonso Marquez is one of the better over umpires in the game and he is behind home plate for this one. He carries a very low strikeout/walk ratio in the long term.

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* Last night's contest between these two got crazy especially late in the game, but I think this one will be much lower scoring.

Before last night, the Arizona Diamondbacks had seen six of their last seven games stay under 7.5 runs total. The Cardinals have seen four of their last eight stay under this total as well.

The Diamondbacks are 23rd in wOBA against lefties this year, and Jose Quintana is really pitching well. Quintana has a 1.52 ERA and a 2.85 FIP in his last five starts. I expect him to pitch well here against the DBacks. 

Merrill Kelly has been tremendous this season. Kelly has allowed 2 runs or less in eight of his last nine starts. Kelly has done a good job keeping the ball in the ballpark this year, and he is a strike thrower in general. 

CB Bucknor has great strikeout/walk rates in the last couple years, and I rate him as a decent under umpire.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Orioles topped the Boston Red Sox 15-10 last night in an epic scoring fest. I'm not expecting like that in this one, but I do think 8.5 is too short in this situation. 

Both teams rank in the top ten in the majors in wOBA in the last two weeks. The Orioles have a lot of youngsters who have been heating up of late. Guys like Mountcastle, Rutschman, Hays, and the rest are tough outs. 

Michael Wacha has a great ERA on the year, but the advanced metrics suggest he has been very lucky. He has left 82% of runners on base, which is just unheard of. He has a SIERA of 4.27 and is going to regress at some point. The Orioles lineup has a whopping .491 wOBA against Wacha in 53 at bats. 

Kyle Bradish may be a good pitcher in the majors in time, but right now he isn't very good. Bradish is allowing nealry 2 home runs per nine innings and he walks nearly 4 batters per nine innings. 

A temperature in the upper 80's and a wind blowing out about 8 mph to center and left center field helps here too.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Not only are Kyle Bradish and Yusei Kikuchi enduring rough seasons, but they have bad recent histories against these respective opponents. Bradish is 1-4 with a 6.42 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. Bradish went up against the Blue Jays on June 13. He gave up five earned runs on nine hits in 4 1/3 innings in an 11-1 loss. Kikuchi, who is 4-6 with a 5.13 ERA and 1.49 WHIP, faced Baltimore a week ago. He surrendered five earned in five innings on six hits and three walks. The Orioles slugged three homers against him. Overall, Kikuchi has a .361 wOBA allowed against Baltimore in his career. Kikuchi is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA in two starts versus Baltimore this season. 

The Orioles were held in check by Tampa Bay's Drew Rasmussen yesterday. But they still have scored six or more runs in seven of their last 12 games. Toronto ranks in the top-five in runs, batting average and OPS. 

 The past seven meetings between these two teams in Toronto have resulted in six Overs and one push.  Take the Over.

*3 Star Play Under* The Tigers and White Sox managed a combined 10 runs on Saturday. But make no mistake these are struggling offenses. The Tigers average a major league-low 3.1 runs per game. If you discount a rare 9-run performance against the Rays and Detroit is averaging 1.8 runs in its last nine games. The White Sox are averaging 3.1 runs in their past six games while missing two of their key bats with Tim Anderson and Luis Robert both injured. 

Yet the total is fairly high because of a starting pitching matchup of Tyler Alexander versus Lance Lynn. Alexander has a 3.83 ERA. However, he's coming off an excellent performance against the Guardians this past Tuesday where he pitched a season-high seven innings while giving up two runs on seven hits. Alexander has a 3.38 ERA in his last three starts. The Under has cashed during each of his last six road starts. Alexander normally doesn't pitch deep into games. But Detroit relievers have the fifth-lowest bullpen ERA in the majors.

Lynn came off the injured list too early and paid the price. He's 2-5 with a 5.88 ERA on the season. Lynn, though, has started to get back to speed. He's been respectable during his last four starts. During this span, he blanked the Guardians for six innings and held the Royals to one earned run in six innings. Lynn can hold his own against bad offenses. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Dominant starting pitching isn't required for an Under to play out when the teams are the Tigers and White Sox.  The Tigers have the worst offense in baseball ranking last in runs, homers and OPS. They have scored four or fewer runs in 17 of their last 20 games and are averaging 1.7 runs in their last four games. Detroit just struck out 14 times to the Guardians in a 4-3 extra inning loss Thursday. Cleveland starter Zach Plesac had seven strikeouts. Plesac is not a high strikeout pitcher with 90 in 114 innings. The Tigers have struck out the second-highest number of times in the American League.  Now Detroit draws White Sox righty Michael Kopech, who has a 3.14 home ERA. The Under is 43-19-5 (69%) the last 67 times the Tigers have gone against a righty starter. The White Sox are in a scoring slump, too. They've produced fewer than four runs a game in seven of their last eight games. Chicago is averaging 2.7 runs in its last four games.

The Under has cashed in nine of the White Sox's last 12 games.  Lefty Daniel Norris is slated to start for the Tigers. He has a 4.59 career ERA with the Tigers. The White Sox have the second- highest batting average in the majors against southpaws, but rank 11th in slugging percentage.

Overall, the White Sox rank 18th in runs and 25th in homers through Wednesday. This is likely to be a bullpen game for the Tigers, which is fine since Detroit has the fifth-lowest bullpen ERA in baseball at 3.20. The Tigers won't have to face star shortstop Tim Anderson, out with a broken finger. There's a slight breeze in the forecast and that's for the wind to be blowing in at 5-6 mph. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Shane McClanahan is firmly in the American Cy Young Award discussion. He might even be the favorite with a 10-4 record, 2.07 ERA and 0.83 WHIP, which is the lowest in baseball. McClanahan has the fourth-lowest ERA in the majors and is tied for the fourth-most strikeouts.  McClanahan is in good position to turn in another dominant performance facing Detroit, which has the worst offense in the league ranking last in runs, homers and OPS. The Tigers are averaging a puny 2.7 runs in their last nine games.  

Garrett Hill gets the start for Detroit. He's been better at home where he's 1-0 with a 3.27 ERA. McClanahan's road ERA is 1.62. Hill goes against a Rays offense that is bottom-10. Hill is backed by a strong Detroit relief corps that has the fourth-lowest bullpen ERA in the majors. Tampa Bay has scored fewer than four runs in nine of its last 13 games.  Both hurlers will be aided pitching at spacious, pitcher-friendly Comerica Park. The forecast also is calling for winds to be blowing in at 7-to-8 mph.  

Take the Under. 

*3 Star Play on Over* This total is too low given Toronto's high-caliber offense and Kevin Gausman not being in good form lately. The Blue Jays have the highest batting average in baseball at .265. They entered this week ranked third in runs and on-base percentage. Toronto has scored at least four runs in 13 of its last 16 games.  Tampa Bay starter Drew Rasmussen is decent, but he's a low-innings pitcher. Only twice in his last 10 starts has he gone more than five innings. He has a 3.90 ERA in night games. Rasmussen has to contend with a red-hot Vladimir Guerrero, who has a 12-game hitting streak and is batting .421 during his past 10 games.  The Rays are missing some key batters due to injuries. They did pick up David Peralta from the Diamondbacks to strengthen their outfield depth. This total is low due to Gausman, who has a 3.30 ERA. But Gausman hasn't been sharp with a 5.74 ERA in his last three starts. Gausman has surrendered four homers during these last three starts spanning 15 1/3 innings. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* 

The Giants are struggling averaging two runs per game during their last five games. Things aren't looking up as they go against Zac Gallen, who has a 3.36 ERA this season when pitching at home. Gallen is in good form with a 2.89 ERA during his last three starts. This is a day game. Gallen has a 1.90 day time ERA. 

*3 Star Play Under* 

Both teams have below average offenses. Tampa Bay starter Corey Kluber has been solid. He's given up two earned runs or fewer in seven of his last nine starts reaching the sixth inning during each of those seven outings. The Rays have a strong bullpen ranking eighth in relief pitching ERA. 

The Rays managed only a combined five runs in their last two games while striking out 19 times against mediocre Kansas City pitching. 

*3 Star Play Under* 

These are two of the coldest offenses in baseball. And now both are running into hot pitchers. Miami is averaging 2.4 runs in its last 15 games. The Marlins have been shut out in three of their last four games. The Pirates are averaging 1.8 runs in their last six games discounting an eight-run game against the Rockies at Coors Field. Pittsburgh ranks in the bottom-three in runs, batting average and OPS. 

 Don't look for the Pirates to break out with a big-scoring game facing Sandy Alcantara, a prime Cy Young Award candidate with a 9-4 record, 1.76 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. Alcantara has a 0.78 ERA in his last three starts. He has the lowest ERA in the National League.  Pittsburgh starter Mitch Keller has pitched his most consistent ball of his career since rejoining the rotation at the end of May. He's given up three earned runs or fewer in seven of his last nine starts since then. He has a 2.37 ERA during his past three starts. The Marlins are without Jorge Soler, their second-leading home run hitter with 13. He was placed on the injured list because of back spasms on Saturday. Take the Under. 

*3 Star Play Under*The Tigers are the lowest-scoring team in the majors. They've scored three runs or fewer in eight of their last 11 games. 

*3 Star Play Under*

Detroit and Cleveland rank last and second-to-last in home runs. So it's not surprising they don't score much. The Tigers have scored eight runs in their last six games if you discount a seven-run performance they had against the Royals. Detroit scores the fewest runs in the league and is second-from-the-bottom in OPS. The Guardians have scored four or fewer runs in 13 of their last 15 games. The pitching matchup is Drew Hutchinson versus Zach Plesac. Neither pitcher generates a lot of respect. But each is good enough to tame these weak offenses. Hutchinson proved that two starts ago when he held the Guardians to one earned run in five innings. He's made two starts since returning to Detroit's starting rotation, giving up three earned runs in 11 innings, allowing 10 hits and one walk. Detroit has the third lowest bullpen ERA in the majors. Plesac's ERA is 3.89 on the season. However, his ERA at home is 2.85. Plesac is in good current form, too, with a 2.65 ERA in his last three starts. There is a slight wind blowing in. 

Take the Under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Johnny Cueto and Sonny Gray once were outstanding pitchers. They still are very good. Cueto has a 2.91 ERA on the season. He has a 2.25 ERA in his last three starts and a 1.74 road ERA on the season. Gray has a 3.03 ERA. He's given up three earned runs or fewer in 11 of 12 starts. Gray's home ERA is 2.83. Both pitchers can go deep into games, too, so middle relief doesn't have to factor. 

*3 Star Play Under* Tony Gonsolin has been great for the Dodgers all season, leading the majors in ERA at 1.62 and in WHIP at 0.80. The Cardinals scored seven runs against the Dodgers on Tuesday in a 7-6 victory. But previous to that, St. Louis had only managed 11 runs in its past eight games. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Rockies are a hitting machine at Coors Field. The Padres are a much stronger offensive club, too, when playing away from their pitcher-friendly Petco Park. Colorado ranks No. 1 at home in runs scored, batting average and OPS. The Rockies are No. 2 in home slugging percentage. The Padres are the second-highest scoring team in the majors when playing on the road. They rank in the top nine in a number of other offensive categories when away from home, including runs, batting average, OPS and OPB.  

Neither starting pitcher, San Diego's Sean Manaea nor Colorado's Jose Urena, has a good track record at Coors Field. Manaea is 0-2 with a 5.06 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in two starts at Coors. Urena has a 5.73 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in 11 career innings at Coors. The lefthanded Manaea is not in good form with a 5.28 ERA and 1.63 WHIP during his last three starts spanning 15 1/3 innings.

The Rockies have the second-highest batting average in the league against southpaws at .286. Urena has pitched more than three innings just once all season. So the Rockies' vulnerable middle relievers could see plenty of action.  The weather forecast is for a slight wind to be blowing out to left field. The Rockies aren't likely to have Kris Bryant, but could get back C.J. Cron, who leads the team in homers and RBI's.  Take the Over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Brewers will start Brandon Woodruff in this one. Woodruff has been excellent of late. He started the season slowly, but he is in great form coming into this one. Woodruff has a 1.73 ERA and a 2.33 FIP in his last five starts. Woodruff has held this Pirates lineup to a weighted on base average of just .281 in his career as well. 

Pittsburgh has scored just 13 runs in their last six games. The Pirates don't have nearly enough depth in their lineup.

Zach Thompson is a middle of the road starter for the Pirates. The Brewers offense isn't all that good though. They are averaging just 3.17 runs per game in their last six contests. 

Roberto Ortiz is the home plate umpire here. The under is 21-9 in his last 30 games behind home plate. Ortiz has had some very high strikeout/walk rates in the last couple years and that should help both pitchers here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia Phillies offense clearly doesn't have the upside they did before Bryce Harper went down with an injury. The Phillies have been getting some remarkable performances from Kyle Schwarber, and you have to wonder how long he can keep this up. 

The St. Louis Cardinals have scored 3 runs or less in seven of their last eight games. They have scored 3 runs or less in each of their last five games. 

Both of these teams are significantly better against left handed pitching than right handers. The Phillies are 5th in wOBA against lefties and 11th in wOBA against righties (would be much lower without Harper). The Cardinals are 7th in wOBA against lefties and 14th against righties.

Zack Wheeler is a top 6 or 8 right handed pitcher in baseball. Wheeler has a 2.66 ERA and a 2.48 FIP. He is putting together a third straight fantastic season. 

Adam Wainwright isn't the dominant starter he once was, but he is at least an average right handed starter, and his splits at home suggest he is still an above average starting pitcher.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Nationals have been without Juan Soto in their last two games. He is questionable for this contest. Washington isn't very good offensively to begin with. Without Soto, this Washington offense becomes a bottom six or eight offense in baseball. 

Philadelphia is without Bryce Harper, and that definitely hurts their offense a lot. They are coming off an excellent offensive showing last game, but I still expect this team to have some struggles at the plate without him. 

Josiah Gray is a very highly touted pitching prospect who has been pretty impressive in his recent outings. Gray has a 2.75 ERA and a 3.25 FIP in his last five starts. 

Aaron Nola has pitched well in general this year, and he has been at his best of late. Nola has just 4 walks and 38 strikeouts in his last 37 innings pitched. In his last five starts, he has a 1.70 ERA and a 2.08 FIP.

Bill Miller is behind home plate here, and Miller has the highest strikeout/walk ratio of any umpire in baseball. He will give the pitchers the corners in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Dallas Keuchel is a really bad left handed starter at this time in his career. Keuchel doesn't have strikeout pitches, and he is no longer elite at inducing soft contact. 

Colorado ranks first in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. The Rockies now have Kris Bryant back in the middle of the lineup as well. Bryant and CJ Cron form a tremendous duo that really crushes lefties. 

Austin Gomber has been in bad form this year. Arizona has scored at least 7 runs in three of their last four games. The DBacks have a budding star in Alek Thomas and he has really caught fire of late. 

Both bullpens have had to work a lot of late, and neither bullpen has much in the way of depth. 

I expect plenty of scoring chances for both teams here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Colorado Rockies rank second in the majors in weighted on base average over the last two weeks. Colorado has really been seeing the ball well of late. The Rockies have gotten a bit healthier of late, and that certainly helps.

Arizona has the worst batting average on balls in play in the last month of any team in the majors. The Diamondbacks offense isn't great, but they have been unfortunate of late. If you haven't been getting hits to drop in, Coors Field is a great place to travel to in order to get right. 

Merrill Kelly has made three starts at Coors Field, and he has an 8.15 ERA here. Kelly has pitched well this year overall, but I think this will be a real challenge for him. 

Antonio Senzatela has allowed a whopping .349 batting average and a .407 wOBA in 126 at bats against those players currently on the Diamondbacks roster. 

Warm weather and a slight breeze out to center field are helpful here as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies rank 2nd and 6th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. Against right handed pitching, both are much more mediocre though. The Braves are 11th and the Phillies are 17th. 

Now, the Phillies are without superstar Bryce Harper. Harper is one of the best overall hitters in the game and this is a huge loss. 

Charlie Morton has thrown his best baseball in the last couple outings.

Zack Wheeler has tremendous splits at home the last two years. Wheeler has a 1.49 ERA and a spectacular .229 wOBA allowed at home this season. He had a 2.38 ERA and a .246 wOBA last year at home.

Both teams are down key hitters in the lineup.

The weather calls for moderate temperatures for summer in Philadelphia, and the slight wind is from center field.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Doug Eddings has the highest called strike percentage in baseball in the last five years. You won't find a better umpire for an under than Eddings. He got himself in a lot of battles with the Blue Jays and White Sox in his last game behind home plate. To say that he had a massive strike zone in that one is a big understatement. That was a brutal beat on the under in that game, but it certainly wasn't because of Eddings. 

Blake Snell had much better numbers pitching at home last year, and I expect his home numbers to improve a lot the rest of the year. Snell struggles with walks at times, but Eddings should help him at least some here.

Zach Eflin goes against a Padres lineup that is shorthanded because of injury right now. Eflin has been solid this year. 

The Phillies bullpen ranks about middle of the pack this year. The Padres have a top 6 or 8 bullpen in baseball.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oakland A's offense is terrible. Oakland has scored two runs or fewer in six of their last ten games. Oakland is last in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. George Kirby is a highly rated right handed pitcher who has shown the ability to throw multiple pitches well and limit hard contact.

Paul Blackburn is having a breakout season for the Athletics. Blackburn is doing a tremendous job inducing soft contact and keeping the ball in the ballpark. Seattle's offense is very inconsistent.

The A's offense has been bad in general this year, but they are much worse at home. In fact, no other team in the majors has a wOBA lower than .284 at home this year, but the A's have a miserable .255 wOBA.

Take the under here.