*3 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers rolled up some amazing offensive stats against an FCS school, and in their two games against FBS opponents they have scored 13 (against S Carolina) and 3 points (against Purdue). Now, they face easily the best defense they have seen so far this year. 

Missouri ranked in the top ten in tempo all last year. They are outside the top 30 so far this season. They have clearly slowed down. Drew Lock has been extremely inefficient at quarterback.

Auburn talked about playing faster a lot in the offseason, but the Tigers are playing slower than the average team in the country. The offense needs more work, and they run the ball at a very high rate (keeps the clock ticking).

The Auburn defense is first in the nation in yards per play allowed. Auburn's offense is 102nd in the nation in yards per play. Auburn should control this game, and their defense should do the heavy lifting.

This total is too high. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oklahoma State Cowboys offense is performing like a well-oiled machine right now. Oklahoma State is averaging 8.64 yards per play through three games. That's a tremendous number. The Cowboys like to play fast as well. Their overall tempo numbers are skewed a bit right now, because they have been blowing teams out so badly that they slow down a lot by the end of the game. 

TCU ranks 33rd quickest in the country in tempo, and their offense has been much better so far this year. I expect them to be able to move the ball and score plenty here on an Oklahoma State defense that I believe is overrated right now.

I see a typical Big 12 shootout in Stillwater on Saturday.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Appalachian State is a very good mid-major type team. The Mountaineers offense leans very heavily though on running back Jalin Moore. Moore is questionable and his coach said he will be a gametime decision for this one. Moore had a walking boot on earlier this week, so he is clearly in a lot of pain. Depth at running back is a problem for App State this year. 

Appalachian State has one of the best defenses of any of the smaller name teams in the country. The Mountaineers have a very good secondary full of veterans. 

Wake Forest's offense put up big numbers against Presbyterian and Utah State. Appalachian State's defense will be a much tougher unit to face. 

Wake Forest's defense has been very solid the last couple years, and Dave Clawson is a defensive-minded coach.

I think Appalachian State comes ready to play here in a rare chance to host a "big" guy from their state. Tight low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* I don't like to make a habit of betting under this low of a number, but I like the value here. I think this game stays in the 30's. 

Vanderbilt's offense is definitely better than they were a couple years ago, but the Commodores are going to get a wakeup test when they face the best defenses in the country. I don't see Vanderbilt being able to run on this very strong Bama defensive line. I still don't trust Shurmur to be the guy to make big plays in this spot either.

Alabama's offense is good, but Vanderbilt's defense has exceeded my expectations in a big way. Vanderbilt played a good MTSU offense and shut them down. They completely shut down Kansas State last week too. Vanderbilt ranks in the top five in the nation in all major categories.

Both teams play among the 30 slowest paces of play in college football.

I'll be surprised if Vanderbilt scores more than 10, and I see this as a game where both teams run the ball a lot.

The under is 55-25 in Vandy's last 80 conference contests.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* UCF is much more prepared on offense this year. Milton has a year under his belt, and he'll be much better in Scott Frost's fast paced offense. UCF put up 61 points in game one this year against FIU. They won't put up a huge number like that against Maryland, but I do think they'll get a lot of yards and scoring opportunities here.

Maryland's offense will be one of the most improved in the country this year. UCF lost a lot defensively from a year ago, and they are particularly weak at the linebacker and secondary spots. Maryland's young quarterback Hill should be able to put up some nice numbers on this UCF team.

I considered this line early in the week, and saw money coming on the under and waited. At this price, I'm willing to fly in the face of the line move and take the over. My number here is 67 points. 

There isn't expected to be any weather issues here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* I've played the Tulsa over in each of the last two weeks. The final score in each of those games has topped 100 points. I don't think this one will get that high, but I have to play the over again here.

New Mexico will likely have a backup quarterback here, but the Lobos rushing attack has been great in the last few years. I think they'll be able to break big plays here too. Tulsa is easily dead last in the nation in rushing yards per carry allowed. Tulsa is allowing a whopping 7.57 yards per carry on the year, which is the worst in the country by more than half a yard! 

Tulsa's pace of play is the single fastest of any team in the country. They will be looking to play quickly and take advantage of a New Mexico defense that lacks high end talent. Tulsa is 12th in the nation in total offense.

The over is 20-6 in Tulsa's last 26 home games. 

Look for plenty of big plays from both teams.

Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* These are two option teams up against each other. Both teams run the ball more than 75% of the time. With that kind of rate of running the football, you have to be extremely efficient on offense to score a lot of points. Tulane plays at a slower than average pace. Army plays at one of the three slowest paces of any team in the country.

The practice these teams get against option attacks every day makes the defenses perform much better against the option than a typical defense. This is where they are accustomed to seeing.

I had this number at 42.

Take the under big here. 

*4 Star Play Under* By the long term trends, taking the under when two teams are playing that are fighting for a playoff spot late in the season has been a good move. 

From game 147 of the season, when two teams with a win percentage of 50% or higher meet and the total is 8.5 or higher, with the wind blowing in at all, the under is a whopping 64-28 (70% Wins). 

The wind will be howling in from right center field here at 20 to 25 mph. That's a significant wind to where it will be very hard to hit it out of Yankee Stadium on Tuesday. It's possible for the big sluggers like Aaron Judge, but there won't be any cheap ones.

Jose Berrios and C.C. Sabathia have both been solid this year, and these two bullpens have been pitching well of late.

The under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. The under is 20-7-2 in Sabathia's last 29 home starts.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Orioles have the worst weighted on base average in the majors in the last two weeks. Baltimore has been very streaky this year on offense, and they have been ice cold of late. Boston is dealing with some injuries right now. Hanley Ramirez is questionable for this one. The Red Sox are worse than average in the majors in wOBA in the last couple weeks as well.

Mike Muchlinski is the umpire here and he is a solid under umpire. It also helps a lot to get the wind blowing in from center field at 10-12 mph during this game with moderate temperatures. 

Drew Pomeranz has been solid all year. Kevin Gausman has been very good of late, and he has a stellar track record against AL East opponents, especially at home.

The under is 4-0-1 in Gausman's last 5 starts vs. the Red Sox. The under is 3-0-1 in Pomeranz's last 4 starts vs. the Orioles. A combined 7-0 trend.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The LA Rams are going to play fast this year. They have a brand new coach and system, and it already showed to be a big positive for Jared Goff. Goff definitely has potential, and he has good weapons now in Sammy Watkins and Cooper Kupp. Todd Gurley is still a quality runner as well. I think the Rams offense is much improved this year.

The Redskins have a bottom six or eight defense in the NFL, and I think the Rams can have another nice game here on offense. 

The Rams are dealing with a bunch of injuries in the secondary right now. The Redskins didn't look great in week one on offense, but I think they'll be better here. They still have a solid amount of talent at the wide receiver spots.

In weeks 2 and 3 in the NFL, when the total is 45.5 or lower, and wind speeds are forecasted to average 9 mph or less, the over is 132-95 in the last 227 contests. 

Jerome Bogers' is the main referee here. He has been an over machine because his crew calls a lot of pass interference and holding on the defensive secondary. The over is 76-58 (56.7%) in Bogers' games as referee.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Indians start Corey Kluber here, and it would be hard to overstate how amazing he has been since June. In 16 of his last 20 starts, he has allowed 2 runs or less. Kluber is averaging nearly 12 strikeouts per nine innings, and only 1.66 walks per nine innings. He should continue his dominance in this one.

Danny Duffy comes off the disabled list here. Duffy is a guy who nibbles on the corners though and home plate umpire Angel Hernandez is one of the better under umpires in baseball. That should be a big help.

Winds blowing in on a moderate temperature day help the under as well.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star NFL Total PERFECTION* The New Orleans Saints defense has consistently been the worst in the NFL the last couple years, and they are likely to be right down there again this season. Sam Bradford threw for 346 yards and beat this secondary deep multiple times in game one. Obviously, Bradford isn't normally a guy who completes deep passes like that, so that is a major warning sign.

Tom Brady and the Patriots offense will definitely have a better plan of attack for this one than they did last game. New England should utilize Gronkowski a lot in this one since New Orleans has struggled with pass catching tight ends in recent years. It's also a spot for Brandin' Cooks to have a big game against his old team.

The Patriots defense looks like they are in trouble this year to me. They allowed Alex Smith far too long to throw last game, and he picked them apart. Now, Dont'a Hightower, the team's most important player on defense, is out for this game. How are things going to improve against Drew Brees and the Saints in the Superdome? 

Games played in domes in the first two months of the season where the home team is the underdog have gone over the total 61% of the time in the past ten years in the NFL.

The over is 4-0-1 in the Patriots last 5 following a double digit loss at home. The over is 5-0 in the Pats last 5 games. The over is 4-0 in the Saints last 4 games. The over is 13-0 in the last 13 games in the NFL when one team is coming off a Thursday game and another off a Monday game  when the game is week 11 or earlier in the season. Also, in game two of the season, when a non-division team is a home dog of 3.5 points or more and the total is 40 or higher, the over is 12-0. In all, a 38-0 angle. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Vanderbilt's defense impressed me in a big way against MTSU in their season opener. The Commodores offense is a bit better than it was in recent seasons, but Kansas State's defense is easily the best unit they have faced yet. 

Both of these teams play at a methodical pace, and I see this one having a lot of running plays where the clock will be moving throughout. 

Kansas State doesn't have any big playmakers on the outside and Vanderbilt is lacking in that area as well. They will rely on the running games a lot, and both front sevens on defense should have the edge.

I waited for a move up on this total during the week, and we finally got it. Time to play this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Tulsa Golden Hurricane have played at the fastest tempo of any team in the country so far this year. Expect that to continue. Phillip Montgomery is working hard to get this team to be the fastest every single year. Chad President looked much better in this offense last week, and Tulsa has a terrific running game.

Toledo's Logan Woodside is a tremendous passer. Woodside is going to carve up the MAC this year, and I think he'll put up big numbers here too. Tulsa is dead last in yards per game allowed in the country at 618 yards allowed per contest. I'm willing to give them a pass for getting torched by Oklahoma State, but allowing 598 yards against Louisiana Lafayette is a big problem. 

Toledo's tempo is slightly faster than average, and Tulsa is the fastest in the country. This is a high total, but it's high for a good reason. I think there's a good chance this game gets to 80 points.

Take the over. 

*4 Star CFB Total PERFECTION* The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers offense has been a big disappointment so far this year. Still, this is an overreaction in the totals market. Western Kentucky still has a veteran quarterback who is one of the top two quarterbacks in the league. They still have a good collection of running backs as well. They should get things figured out.

Louisiana Tech is a team that has a very weak secondary. The Bulldogs allowed 57 points against Mississippi State last week. On the offensive side of the ball, Louisiana Tech should be very good as they have been every year under Skip Holtz.

In the last 3 meetings between these two teams, the final scores have added to 79 points, 107 points, and 102 points. I realize Western Kentucky has a new coaching staff and La Tech a new quarterback, but I'm convinced in Conference USA play these will still be two very good offenses.

I'll look to profit from an overreaction to Western Kentucky's slow start to the season on offense.

The over is 8-0 in LA Tech's last 8 following an ATS loss. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 September games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing 40 points or more in their last game. The over is 5-0 in Western Kentucky's last 5 after allowing 170 passing yards or less last game. The over is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between these two. A 26-0 angle. 

Take the over. 

*5 Star College Football TOP Total of the WEEK* East Carolina just fired their defensive coordinator. I don't expect it to help, at least not right away. East Carolina plays at a very quick tempo, and their defense ends up being on the field a lot. This defense is very thin and I expect them to give up huge yardage and points on a weekly basis. How bad have they been so far? In two games they are allowing an eye popping 616.5 yards per game. That's second worst in the country. 

Virginia Tech is pushing the tempo even more than they did a year ago. Jackson looks good in this offense. The Hokies put up 54 points by themselves against East Carolina last year, and I think they can get close to 50 again here. 

The pace of this game combined with the fact that one of the defenses is one of the five worst in the country makes this too low of a number. In fact, my number is a full touchdown higher.

Take the over big. 

*4 Star Play Over* This wasn't necessarily a game I had circled to play on the open, but this line has dropped so low that there is too much value for me to avoid it. 

Air Force has one returning starter on defense from last year. The Falcons are going to be badly overmatched when Michigan's offensive line goes against their defensive line. 

Michigan returns only one starter on defense from last year as well. The Wolverines are good on defense, but they aren't as good as a year ago.

Jim Harbaugh is always willing to run up the score on teams. I think Michigan will be able to put up a lot of points here. Michigan getting to 40 points or more wouldn't surprise me at all. 

Arion Worthman is a great fit for the Air Force option offense, and the Falcons should be able to do enough to get this over this very low total.

The over is 6-0-1 in Michigan's last 7 non-conference games. The over is 5-0-1 in Michigan's last 5 September games. The over is 9-1 in their last 10 following an ATS loss. A 20-1 angle. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Andrew Cashner has allowed 3 runs or less in 10 of his last 11 starts. Cashner has been particularly good at home. Cashner has an ERA under 3 at home on the year. He has allowed only 8 runs in his last 5 starts. 

Cashner has been much better in the second half of the season. He has lowered his walk rate drastically. He allowed a .316 weighted on base average in the first half of the season. He has allowed only a .269 weighted on base average in the second half of the year.

Felix Hernandez will start here and will be on a pitch count. Hernandez threw it well in Triple A starts. Andrew Albers is expected to be first in relief here, and he has been very solid this year. 

The Rangers are badly beaten up right now. Adrian Beltre is playing badly injured and may or may not be in the lineup. Mike Napoli is out with an injury. Carlos Gomez is doubtful with an injury.

This game means a lot to both teams. I think the total is a little too high.

The under is 6-0 in Cashner's last 6 home starts. The under is 8-3 in Hernandez's last 11 starts vs. the Rangers.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Angel Hernandez is a good under umpire. He always ranks in the top 10 or 12 umpires in the league in percentage of pitches called a strike. He'll help both pitchers in this one.

Tampa Bay has been ice cold of late. The Rays have scored 2 runs or less in 5 of their last 9 games. Jaime Garcia is a middle of the road lefty, and the Rays have been bad against left-handed pitching this season.

Chris Archer is having the best season of his career if you look at his underlying stats. His FIP is 3.36 and xFIP is 3.30. He has pitched well against the Yankees in the recent past, but hasn't gotten any run support.

In the last 25 games of the regular season, teams with a win percentage of 45% or higher that are playing the final game of a series see the total go under at a 55.5% clip (in the last 5 seasons). 

The under is 6-0 in Archer's last 6 during game three of a series. The under is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two. A 10-0 combined angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Jerry Meals is the home plate umpire for this game. Meals is one of the best over umpires in the game. That is a big boost here especially since we have two starting pitchers very capable of getting hit hard, and two bullpens who are exhausted and limping to the finish.

Dylan Covey is in over his head in the majors. The White Sox called him up too soon. Covey has an 8.08 ERA and a 7.94 FIP. He is allowing more than 3 home runs per nine innings. He is walking almost as many guys as he strikes out. 

Sam Gaviglio isn't as bad as Covey, but he isn't good. He doesn't pitch deep into games, and he is prone to allowing big innings too often.

The White Sox have been the worst bullpen in baseball in the last two months. In the past 30 days, the Royals are in the bottom five bullpens in baseball. There should be scoring chances late.

The White Sox have scored 8 runs or more in each of their last three games. Abreu is on fire and Anderson and Moncada are swinging it well also. 

The Royals have potential to score in bunches and they'll get chances here against Covey and a terrible bullpen.

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* Ariel Miranda has been getting absolutely blown up on the road. Miranda has a 6.16 ERA on the road this year. He has allowed a mind-boggling 23 home runs on the road in only 73 innings pitched. His weighted on base average allowed is .376 away from home. 

The Texas Rangers are very capable of putting up a big number, and Miranda's extremely high walk rate and high home run rate allowed make this a very dangerous spot for him.

Cole Hamels isn't the same guy he was a few years ago. He averages only 5 strikeouts per nine innings. He is a pitch to contact guy now, and his hard contact rate has gone from 28% two years ago to 35.4% this year. 

The Mariners offense is very solid against left handed pitching. The wind is blowing out here on a warm night in Texas.

The over is 8-0 in the Rangers last 8 games following a loss. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a lefty. The over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 during game one of a series. A 20-0 angle. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Chicago Bears are going to run the football early and often in this one. Jordan Howard is a good back and I suspect he'll get a good amount of yards in this game. Still, the Bears don't have good red zone options and as the field tightens up in the red zone I think they'll need to settle for field goals. 

The Atlanta Falcons aren't as good offensively outside the dome and the turf. The Bears defense is better than they showed a year ago. Injuries really held this team back last year. 

I believe Kyle Shanahan moving on will hurt Atlanta's offense at least some in the interim. He really helped Matt Ryan and this offense reach lofty heights. There will likely be some interim growing pains.

The Bears offense is extremely limited in the passing game, and I see this as a high posted total all things considered.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Baltimore Ravens plan to start Joe Flacco here, but Flacco back has been a big problem all offseason. It's hard to expect a lot from him here. The biggest problem for the Ravens is they have no good option as a backup either.

Andy Dalton is a middle of the road NFL quarterback, and he's up against a good Ravens pass rush here. I don't expect the Bengals to be able to move the ball consistently in this one. 

Games between these two teams are very hard hitting and typically defensive. The highest scoring game of the last three meetings was 40 points. 

I don't expect either team to be playing at a particularly fast pace. Look for both defenses to do a good job forcing their opponent to field goals instead of touchdowns.

In week one in the NFL, conference games with a spread of 4 points or less are 66-39 to the under (63%) in the last 105 contests.

The under is 6-0 in the Bengals last 6 vs. the AFC. The under is 4-0 in the Bengals last 4 games overall. The under is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between these two teams. A 13-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The South Carolina Gamecocks offense is clearly much better with Jake Bentley at quarterback than it has been in the past couple seasons. They also have an improved offensive line. South Carolina didn't play quick against NC State, but they were definitely playing at a quicker tempo than they did a year ago.

Missouri should rank in the top five in the country in tempo this season. Drew Lock knows Josh Heupel's offense really well now, and he'll put up big numbers. On the other side, Missouri's defense is probably the worst in the SEC. This secondary is going to be torched on a week to week basis. The combination of an extremely fast paced efficient offense and a really bad defense will make for some very high scoring games involving Missouri this year.

This one is a little higher than I was hoping to pay, but I think this could easily be a 45-38 type of game. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Auburn/Clemson TV MONEYMAKER* The Auburn Tigers defense was extremely dominant last weekend. I'm very impressed by this front seven and their ability to get into the backfield.

While Clemson has plenty of talent on offense, there is no doubt they lost a bunch of key contributors from last year's team. I believe this Clemson offense will be good over time, but I think they might struggle against top defenses early in the season.

Clemson's defensive line is the best defensive front in the country. The Auburn offensive line is going to have their hands full in this one. Auburn only has one of their two star running backs available for this game. At quarterback, Jarrett Stidham has tons of potential, but he didn't look comfortable last week against Georgia Southern. This is obviously a much tougher task for Stidham and Auburn offense, and I don't think yards will come easy for them in this one.

I see this being a tight hard fought game between two very good defenses. The under is 4-0 in Auburn's last 4 games after gaining 450 yards or more in their previous game. The under is 3-0-1 in Auburn's last 4 against the ACC. The under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. An 11-1 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Oregon Ducks are going to play really quickly again this year. I like Herbert quite a bit in this system. He got a lot of time last year as a freshman, and he is going to end up being a very good quarterback. Oregon's collection of running backs is about as good as anyone in the country. 

Nebraska has an upgrade at quarterback in Tanner Lee and they'll run Mike Riley's pro style offense more efficiently than they did with Armstrong at quarterback. The Cornhuskers were torched on defense though by Arkansas State, and the Red Wolves are nothing special offensively. I don't see Nebraska having much success at all slowing down Oregon here. Oregon had 482 yards on Nebraska last year, and this Ducks offense is definitely better this season.

The weather looks for this one with only 5 mph winds and a temperature around 75 degrees.

The over is 47-17-1 in the Ducks last 65 home games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* UL Lafayette allowed 48 points and 514 yards against SE Louisiana last week. In fact, Lafayette was very fortunate to win that game against the FCS opponent. 

What would make anyone think UL Lafayette is going to slow down Tulsa's offense? Yes Tulsa struggled a bit last week against Oklahoma State, but they are stepping way down in class in a home game against a Sun Belt opponent here.

Tulsa's quarterbacks will look a lot better than they did last week, because this ULL secondary is really bad. Tulsa pushes the pace and will rank in the top ten in the country in terms of tempo this year. This feels like one of those games where Tulsa could put up a big number to get things back on track.

UL Lafayette will have a lot of possessions and I do expect them to break through with some scoring in this one. With a very fast tempo, this is a low total.

The over is 20-7 in Tulsa's last 27 home games. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Indiana played at a lightning fast tempo against Ohio State in game one. Their offensive efficiency was clearly hurt by Ohio State's elite defensive line. They won't face another defensive line that talented this year. 

Indiana should rank as one of the top ten fastest offenses in the nation at the end of the year. Richard Lagow looked very comfortable in this offense, and he has some very good receivers at his disposal as well.

Virginia prefers to play fast and Mendenhall and Anae have looked to push the tempo last year and in previous seasons at BYU. Kurt Benkert gives the team a very solid quarterback who should be much better in year two of their system.

It's all about tempo here for me. If you are going to put out a total this low in a game that should have a bunch of extra plays, I have to take the over.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The MTSU Blue Raiders struggled offensively last week. I don't expect them to struggle on offense very often this year though. MTSU was great on offense under offensive coordinator Tony Franklin last year, and they'll be very good again this year. Brent Stockstill is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in college football, and Richie James is a top five receiver in the country. 

Syracuse is going to push the pace in a big way as long as Dino Babers is their head coach. Syracuse has a great fit for the system at quarterback in Eric Dungey. The offense stumbled a bit last year when Dungey was injured, but when he is healthy Syracuse is capable of putting up huge numbers. 

Though this is a high number, these were both teams that I had highlighted as "over" teams in the right spots this season. The tempo of this game should be extremely quick, meaning both quarterbacks will have a lot of chances to make big plays.

Take the over.

*3 Star Play Under* Boston College is trying to play faster this year. They will get more snaps off than they have the last couple years, but their offense is still really bad. Wake Forest has some major offensive deficiencies too.

These are two head coaches who are great defensive-minded guys, but they don't have good offensive coordinators on their staffs. The last two years the games between these two have combined to be 17-17 (in 2 full games). 

I considered avoiding this one because BC is trying to pick up the pace this year, but when the number was pushed up this high, I had to take the under.

The under is 25-12 in Wake Forest's last 37 conference games. The under is 62-30-2 in BC's last 94 games overall.

Another sloppy low scoring contest should be expected.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is more about tempo and running clock than anything else. Buffalo beat Army 23-20 in overtime last year. That was a game that saw Army throw the ball 10 times and run the ball 67 times. Army lost their top receiver from a year ago, and I think they'll be extremely run heavy again this year. 

Army always ranks in the bottom 3 or 4 in the country in terms of pace of play. The Black Knights will be running the ball and eating up a bunch of clock with their long drives. If they get stopped on downs or have to kick a field goal at any point that is a big boost to the under. 

Buffalo's defense looked much improved against Minnesota last week. The Bulls have a coach in Leipold who is accustomed to preparing for the triple option and I think that helps them a good amount here. The Bulls rank in the bottom half of the nation in tempo as well.

Too much ticking clock and slow tempo for me to pass on this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* We have two starting pitchers in this one who are very capable of getting blown up at any point. 

Bartolo Colon has a 6.25 ERA and a 5.05 SIERA on the season thus far. Colon has a swinging strike rate of just 5.4%. He is allowing 1.68 homers per nine innings. This Tampa Bay Rays team has a ton of power.

Jake Odorizzi's advanced numbers are even worse than Bartolo Colon's. His FIP is 5.97 and his SIERA is 5.19. Odorizzi is giving up a lot of hard contact and a ton of fly balls this year. He is allowing 2.15 homers per nine innings. He's been at his worst in July and August, where he's combined to have an ERA of 6.34. 

I'm not high on either bullpen, and I think they'll have to be in this game for quite a while after subpar starting pitching. 

The over is 7-0 in Odorizzi's last 7 home starts. The over is 8-0 in his last 8 starts on 5 days of rest. The over is 9-0 in their last 9 meetings between these two teams in Tampa Bay. A 24-0 angle.

Take the over. 

*5 Star CFB TOP Play Total* The Auburn Tigers have a new offensive coordinator. They are going to play much faster this season. Auburn brought in Chip Lindsay to run this offense, and he constantly talks about tempo and changing the way they play. 

Auburn is not only going to play faster, but they have a much better quarterback for their system. Jarrett Stidham should be tremendous in this system. Stidham has all the talent you could ever hope for, and I think he'll make good decisions in this fast paced offense. He'll be helped by a great tailback tandem of Pettway and Johnson. 

The Auburn defense isn't going to be as good as they were last year. I certainly don't expect Georgia Southern to do a bunch of damage here, but they should be able to help out a little.

Last year, Auburn hung 51 points and 706 yards on Arkansas State, their lone Sun Belt opponent. This Georgia Southern team has a worse defense than Arkansas State. The Sun Belt defensive line will be overmatched by Auburn. This Auburn Tigers offense is going to play faster and be even more efficient on offense.

It won't surprise me if Auburn scores 52 by themselves (they should get into the 40's at least), and I see this one as a number that is far too low.

Take the over big. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Ole Miss Rebels have had a lot of turmoil in the offseason, and they should look like a very different team when the season gets underway. 

Ole Miss brought in Sam Houston State's offensive coordinator Phil Longo to run the offense. He learned under Mike Leach, and he wants this team playing as quickly as possible. 

Shea Patterson is a quality quarterback, who should fit well in this system. He was considered a top five quarterback in his class a couple years ago. 

Patterson and the Rebels offense will face a South Alabama defense that is overmatched talent wise in this one. They simply aren't accustomed to playing teams with this style of play combined with this kind of talent. 

I'll keep this one to a 3 star play since Ole Miss is a bit of an unknown with lots of offseason turmoil, but I do believe this number is too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Max Scherzer starts here for the Nationals and he has allowed one run or less in 9 of his last 15 starts. Scherzer has been absolutely dominant on the season. 

Milwaukee's offense hasn't been nearly as good in the past month or two as they were early in the season. The under is 35-13-4 in their last 52 games overall. A lot of the young hitters have been struggling of late.

Woodruff isn't a great pitcher, but missing Bryce Harper in the middle of the order is definitely hurting the Nationals pretty badly against righties. 

Both teams have well rested bullpens and that is a plus here. 

Phil Cuzzi is the umpire here and Cuzzi is a great under umpire because of the amount of times he gives pitchers the corners of the strike zone.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Chicago White Sox offense is miserable against right handed pitching. Two of their best young hitters in Moncada and Delmonico are out for this game with an injury. Jose Abreu is listed as questionable as well after suffering a minor injury on Friday night. 

Chris Archer is putting together the best season in his career by a large margin. Archer is fanning 11.29 batters per nine innings. He has a 3.66 ERA and a very good 3.17 FIP on the season. He should be great in this matchup.

Carlos Rodon has been excellent overall in his last five starts, and he's up against a free swinging Tampa Bay team that has struggled against lefties this year. Rodon can rack up the punchouts, and his upside is unquestionable.

Blaser is a good under umpire and the wind will be blowing in here.

The under is 3-0-1 in Tampa Bay's last 4 road games vs. a lefty. The under is 4-0 in Archer's last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 7-0 in the White Sox last 7 home games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a right handed starter. The under is 4-0 in the White Sox last 4 vs. the AL East. A 22-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The South Carolina Gamecocks have an improved offense this year, but I think this is an overreaction by the oddsmakers. Jake Bentley and the Gamecocks offense aren't going to be playing fast. In fact, offensive coaches were recently quoted as saying they want to use trickery instead of tempo. They should continue to be one of the slowest paced offenses in the country.

NC State ranked in the bottom 1/3 of teams in the country in terms of tempo last year as well. The Wolfpack have some good players at the skill positions on offense, but this offensive line isn't very impressive.

South Carolina's offensive line should be absolutely dominated by a tremendous NC State defensive front in this one. The Wolfpack defensive line is one of the top five defensive fronts in the country. They'll cause a lot of problems in this one.

The weather could be a minor factor here too. The winds are forecasted to be 12 to 14 mph sustained with gusts up to 18 or 20 mph. That is enough to make teams a little more cautious in their game plan and keep the clock ticking.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Friday Fast CASH* The Milwaukee Brewers start Jimmy Nelson here, and he is a guy who has had a brilliant season this year. He has a 3.75 ERA and a 3.10 FIP, so he has actually been unlucky overall. Nelson is striking out 10 batters every nine innings, and he's cut his walk rate in half this year.

Tanner Roark started the season terribly, but he has been much more solid of late. Roark has allowed three runs or fewer in all but one of his last 7 starts. The other game he allowed 4 runs. 

The Brewers bats have cooled off a lot in recent weeks, and the Nationals aren't nearly as good against right handed pitching without Bryce Harper in the middle of the lineup.

Mark Ripperger is the umpire here, and he's one of the top six or eight under umpires in baseball. He consistently calls a high percentage of strikes, and his strikeout/walk ratio is excellent.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Colorado State Rams put up 58 points against Oregon State. Colorado State has actually scored 46 points or more in five straight games dating back to last season. I don't expect them to score that many here, but I do think they'll move the ball a lot on a Colorado defense that returns only three starters from a year ago. This Buffaloes defense was one of the best in the country last year, and they will regress significantly this season. Mike Bobo's Colorado State team has a bunch of weapons on offense.

Colorado ranked in the top 15 in the country in tempo last year. The Buffaloes should still be very good on offense with Steven Montez under center this year. He has great skill position players around him. The Colorado receivers are the best in the Pac 12. Phillip Lindsay is one of the more underrated running backs in the country. Colorado had 578 yards of offense last year on Colorado State. They'll have a bunch again here.

The weather looks good for this one. While the price isn't a great value, I believe there is a good reason to expect a shootout in a close game here (overtime isn't out of the question either). 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* I wouldn't play this under if it weren't for the weather report here, but the weather is too big of a factor for me to pass this up. The forecast here calls for an average wind of 20 mph with heavy rain throughout the game from the remnants of Hurricane Harvey. High wind and rain can really lower scoring. Past games with similar conditions have stayed under at a high rate.

These are two teams who rely a lot on the passing game, but they'll have to run the football a lot more than they normally do in these conditions. I think that gives the defenses a better chance. 

These two defenses aren't good, but with the opposing offenses being one dimensional and these conditions combined with an extremely high posted total, I'm taking the under here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Doug Eddings calls more strikes than any other umpire in baseball. Combine Doug Eddings being behind the plate and Zack Greinke pitching at home with a total posted this high, and I like the under.

Zack Greinke has a dazzling 2.36 ERA at home this year, and opponents are hitting a miserable .197 against him. Greinke is allowing only a .238 OBP at home. Those are dominating numbers. 

Kenta Maeda has allowed a single run or less in five of his last eight starts. After starting the season poorly he has really come on.

This is a get away day game and I expect a big bat or two to be out of this lineup.

Eddings will help both pitchers and I expect a relatively low scoring game here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Wednesday MLB Best Bet* The Miami Marlins offense has some real pop in the middle of the order. Stanton is absolutely on fire like no one we've seen in recent years when it comes to hitting home runs. Marcell Ozuna is very underrated and I really like Yelich as well.

The Washington Nationals are amazing against lefties, and that has gotten even better with Trea Turner and Jayson Werth coming back to the lineup. The top six in this order are all really good against lefties. 

Adam Conley is a guy who walks too many guys and is prone to the big inning. In a relatively small sample size, the Nationals have an amazing .477 weighted on base average against Conley. It's a very tough matchup for him.

Stephen Strasburg is very good, but the Marlins have given him trouble in the past, particularly when pitching at home. The Marlins have a very good .347 wOBA against Strasburg. Stanton has 3 homers against him and Ozuna has 2. 

The over is helped a lot by Sam Holbrook being behind the dish. He consistently rates as one of the best over umpires in the business. 

The over is 15-4-2 in Conley's last 21 starts. The over is 37-16-4 in Strasburg's last 57 home starts. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Baltimore Orioles offense is on fire right now. Baltimore ranks first in the majors by a mile with a team batting average of .300 in the past month. The Orioles are well known for their ability to hit a bunch of homers, but hitting for average has been a nice surprise for the team.

Ariel Miranda starts for the Mariners and he is allowing more than 3 homers per nine innings on the road this year. Miranda has walked nearly a batter an inning in his last few starts, and he is in a very dangerous spot here against a red hot Baltimore team with tons of power.

Ubaldo Jimenez is a really bad pitcher. Jimenez occasionally fires a good game, but his underlying stats show how bad he is. Jimenez has a 6.57 ERA and his FIP is 5.64. He constantly is pitching with people on base and his wOBA at home this year is a brutal .415.

Look for lots of runs in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Over* Chris Smith has been a career minor league pitcher. The A's are giving him a try in the big leagues, but he just isn't good enough. Smith has a 5.56 ERA on the year, and he's been fortunate to have that. His FIP is 6.36 and he is giving up 2.27 homers per nine innings. He also walks more than 3 batters per nine innings and strikes out only 5.15 per nine innings. His hard contact rate has been extremely high. Smith has allowed 4 runs or more in 4 of his last 5 starts. 

Troy Scribner is an extreme fly ball pitcher. Scribner has been ridiculously lucky so far in the bigs. Scribner has a 4.00 ERA, but his FIP is 6.57 and his xFIP is 5.96. Scribner carries an insane .116 batting average on balls in play so far this year. Basically, everyone is hitting it right at the defenders so far when Scribner is pitching. That won't continue forever.

Both of these pitchers have real blowup potential. Both offenses have been better of late. The Angels have scored 5 runs or more in 7 of their last 11 contests. The A's have scored 6 runs or more in four of their last six contests.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Doug Eddings calls strikes at a higher percentage than any other umpire in the majors. Eddings has seen all of his games with a total of 8 or lower go over the total this year, but games higher than that have been solid under plays. More importantly, Eddings has a strikeout/walk ratio of 3.33, which is MUCH higher than the average umpire. He likes punching guys out. 

Tyler Skaggs has a lot of potential and he's been good at home in his career. The Astros offense has definitely been in a funk of late. Houston has scored 3 runs or less in 9 of their last 13 games.

Brad Peacock is striking out 11.85 batters per nine innings. Eddings should help him a good amount. The Angels offense isn't deep at all. The under is 21-7-4 in their last 31 vs. a right handed pitcher. 

The under is 7-1-1 in Skaggs' last 9 home starts. Take the under.

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Texas Rangers rank number one in the majors in weighted on base average in the past 30 days. Texas has gotten a big boost from Adrian Beltre and Elvis Andrus being red hot and guys like Rougned Odor providing power in key spots. 

The Angels have scored 5 runs or more in five of their last six games. The Angels are a completely different lineup with Mike Trout in there, and CJ Cron has been better of late. 

The two pitchers here have major weaknesses. Martin Perez allows a lot of baserunners and doesn't miss bats. Poor control and not being able to miss bats is an ugly combination.

Troy Scribner is an extreme flyball pitcher and the Rangers have plenty of home run hitters. Scribner had a 4.63 ERA in Triple A this year, and he is due for regression in the bigs right now. His FIP sits at 6.13 with an ERA nearly 3 runs lower. I think the Rangers get to him here.

Take the over.

*3 Star Play Under* The Colorado Rockies aren't the same away from Coors Field. Colorado ranks 28th in the majors in weighted on base average on the road. That's behind the weak hitting San Diego Padres. 

Colorado goes up against a quality lefty in Danny Duffy here. Duffy has given up quite a few runs in his last couple starts, but his strikeout rate has been really impressive. Duffy has 16 strikeouts in his last 11 innings pitched. He's missing bats and his FIP has been low the last couple games. He is due for some positive regression.

Jon Gray has a 4.74 ERA and a 3.63 FIP and 3.64 xFIP on the year. He has allowed a .357 BABIP which is unlikely to continue (though they are always higher at Coors Field). Gray has allowed 3 runs or less in his last five straight starts.

The wind is blowing in at almost 10 mph here, which is a significant help. Also, the temperature is moderate for this time of the year in the mid 70's.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Miami Marlins take on the New York Mets on Sunday afternoon at Citi Field. 

Miami isn't as deep offensively with Justin Bour out of the lineup. The Marlins are better against left handed pitching, and there they are against a very good right hander in Jacob Degrom. The bottom of the Marlins order is really weak and Degrom should be able to take advantage.

The Mets have traded half the team away and this offense can't keep producing as well as they have been for the course of the season. They've traded away too many key parts. Adam Conley is not a great pitcher, but he has an ERA under 1 in three career starts at Citi Field. 

Jacob Degrom has an ERA of 2.07 at home in his career. His ERA during day games is a superb 1.73 in his career. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Playing unders in warm weather months when the game is played at a dome that is closed has been a winning strategy the last five years. Closed roof unders with a total of 9 or more in July and August have cashed at 55.5%. It makes sense to me, the totals all get inflated a bit because there is typically more scoring in the summer months. In a game with a dome it obviously doesn't matter much at all what the weather is like outside.

That's certainly not the only reason I like this one. McHugh is a pitcher I'm pretty high on. Over the course of his career he has been pretty good at suppressing homers. Hitting homers is the way Oakland scores. The A's generally can't string together big innings.

Kendall Graveman has allowed the Houston hitters who will play in this one to hit only .216 with an OBP of .271 against him in a fairly large sample size of 88 at bats.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona Diamondbacks have been amazing on offense at home, but they rank in the bottom five in the majors in wOBA on the road. The under is 33-22 in their road games. 

Charlie Morton is having a breakout season. His swinging strike rate sits at an impressive 10.5% and his FIP and xFIP are actually slightly below his ERA. He hasn't been lucky this year, he has just been good.

Taijuan Walker has been better on the road than at home this year. Walker is a guy with a high upside and the Astros haven't been quite as hot on offense of late.

David Peralta is expected to miss this game for Arizona. Carlos Correa and Evan Gattis are out for the Astros. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Milwaukee Brewers offense has tailed off in production drastically in the last few weeks. There are a bunch of youngsters who were red hot earlier in the year, but many of them have cooled off a lot recently. 

The Pirates start Gerrit Cole here. Cole has allowed 3 runs or less in 10 of his last 11 starts. He has allowed 3 or less in his last seven starts in a row. Cole has great career numbers against Milwaukee. The Brewers have a .163 batting average against him in 80 at bats. 

Jimmy Nelson is coming off a terrible outing, but overall this year he has been excellent. Nelson will face a Pirates lineup that has disappointed this year. They are also without Polanco here who got injured. Look for Nelson to get back on track.

The under is 20-4 in the last 24 meetings between these two teams. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Subway Series continues here as Sonny Gray and Jacob Degrom face off. 

Sonny Gray has been racking up the swinging strikes at an amazing rate of late. Gray has been routinely registering better than 15% swinging strikes in recent outings, and that is about as high as you ever see. 

Jacob Degrom has been spectacular in the last couple months. He's getting more strikeouts per nine than he ever has before, and he's giving up less hard contact in the past month as well.

The weather is fairly moderate here which is helpful. Adam Hamari is a good under umpire with his big strike zone.

The Mets offense isn't what it used to be now that they made so many big trades. I think Degrom can at least slow down the Yankees.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Jakob Junis is allowing nearly 2 homers per nine innings this year. Junis is allowing an extremely high rate of hard contact. More than 40% of batted balls hit off him this year have classified as hard hit balls. That is among the highest in the league. Junis has been good in the minors, but he has some refining of his game to do before I trust him in the majors.

Jharel Cotton has been a big disappointment this year. Cotton has allowed 4 runs or more in 7 of his last 9 starts. He has allowed 2 home runs or more in 5 of his last 8 starts. Cotton is a guy who is struggling with his command inside the zone right now. He's hanging way too many pitches.

The A's bullpen isn't any good now after trading away many key pieces. The Royals middle relief is a weak area, and Junis isn't known for pitching deep into a game.

The Royals are a really streaky offense, and they have been great the last couple games. I think they keep it going here. 

The A's have plenty of left handed power hitters who should give Junis trouble here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Sunday Night Baseball CASH* The Boston Red Sox start Chris Sale in this one. Amazingly, Sale has thrown a shutout in 5 of his last 7 starts. The guy is rolling right now. The Yankees are great against right handed pitching, but against lefties they rank 21st in the majors in weighted on base average. 

Jordan Montgomery was amazing early in the year, and he went through a brief rough stretch. He has been really good again lately with his strikeout rates being through the roof. He's a very talented youngster who should slow the Red Sox down here. Boston is without Dustin Pedroia. 

These are two of the top five bullpens in baseball. That's a big key when you play a low under like this one. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Tampa Bay Rays offense has been ice cold of late. For the past few weeks, they have gone into a slump. The last two days, they have been shutout on consecutive days. First, Carlos Carrasco shut them down on Friday night. Then, Mike Clevinger shut them out on Saturday. Now, they face arguably the hottest pitcher in baseball in Corey Kluber. 

Kluber has 10 strikeouts or more in 10 of his last 11 games. He has walked more than one batter in only two of those 11 starts. That's amazing stuff, and it is why he now owns an amazing 2.43 FIP for the season despite struggling early in the year.

Austin Pruitt is a good young starter who has a bit of a unique delivery. Seeing him the first time should be tough for most teams. He has had a couple real nice starts of late. 

Mark Ripperger is behind the dish and he's a very good under umpire.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star MLB Friday FAST CASH* The Philadelphia Phillies start Nick Pivetta here. Pivetta allowed just one hit and one run in his first start against the Mets this year. Pivetta has a 3.89 ERA at home on the season. He strikes out more than one batter per inning, and his minor league stats show upside. 

Pivetta's downside is he allows a lot of fly balls and can give up homers, but the Mets lineup is much weaker now without Duda or Bruce. The Mets offense has overachieved all year and that has led to some inflated totals in their games now. 

Seth Lugo is nothing better than average, but the Phillies are one of the worst offenses in baseball. 

Surprisingly enough, the Phillies bullpen has been really good in the past month. They rank 7th best in the majors in FIP in the past 30 days. They have some youngsters throwing it well. The Mets rank 14th best in FIP in the past month. 

With an umpire behind the plate who I consider an under umpire, I think this one is a full run too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Preseason Total DOMINATION* In the last 173 NFL Preseason games with a posted total of 36.5 or lower, the over is 104-69. 

There is no bad weather expected in this game. Both teams have solid depth at the quarterback position. 

Denver is looking to figure out who to start at the quarterback spot. They'll play both Siemian and Lynch a lot a solid amount here. 

The Bears have three pretty good options in Glennon, Trubisky, and Sanchez. 

I don't expect the Broncos veterans on defense to stay in this game long at all. What do they have to prove? Nothing.

The Bears defense is one of the weakest in the league this year, especially in terms of depth.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Two very good young pitchers square off on Thursday afternoon in Cincinnati. I think Dinelson Lamet and Luis Castillo both have a very bright future ahead of them.

Lamet is striking out more than 11 batters per nine innings, and he has thrown his best baseball in his last couple outings. 

Castillo has faced a bunch of very good lineups this year, but he goes up against one of the worst in baseball here. Castillo can throw it 99 mph with regularity and he has good movement on his fastball.

This is an early get away day game where the lineups are usually a little softer than the normal game.

We have a bit of an under umpire here, and I think the value is good enough to take the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Doug Eddings calls strikes at a highest rate of any umpire in the league. His strikeout/walk ratio is always among the highest in the majors as well. Anytime he is behind home plate, I at least take a look to the under. A day game that starts at 12:10 pm EST as the ultimate get away spot makes me like it even more. 

Get away day spots usually lead to a couple key players being out of the lineup. That's pretty likely in this one. 

Additionally, the temperature for this one is set to be 75 degrees with a slight breeze in from center field.

I'm not particularly high on Senzatela as a pitcher, but the Indians offense has been inconsistent this year. 

Trevor Bauer has thrown the ball really well two games in a row, and he definitely has a high upside if he can command his pitches well enough. Bauer has a career ERA a full run lower in day games than night games as well.

At 10 with all the factors mentioned above, I definitely like the value.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The  Los Angeles Dodgers send Kenta Maeda to the mound here. Maeda started the season slowly, but he has been dealing of late. Maeda is a master of soft contact. He is giving up a very low 26.8% hard contact rate on the season. Maeda has allowed only 3 earned runs in his last 22 innings pitched. 

Zack Godley has been tremendous this year. His swinging strike rate of 14.0% is truly mind boggling. This guy is getting hitters to chase at bad pitches on a consistent basis. Godley has pitched back to back shutouts leading into this game. 

Both of these offenses are good, but these pitchers are in good form. Chase Field isn't a great hitters park when the roof is closed as it will be here. 

Both bullpens rank in the top ten in the majors as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Angels Angels start Ricky Nolasco here. While I'm not all that high on him overall, Nolasco has thrown the ball much better of late. He has allowed one run or less in 4 of his last 7 starts. He's up against an Oakland offense that is subpar here, and this is clearly a pitcher-friendly park.

Sean Manaea hasn't pitched well in his last few starts, but I'm very high on his upside. Manaea faces an Angels lineup that isn't very deep. I think he has a good chance to turn it around here, and his recent struggles have pushed this total upward.

Ron Kulpa is the umpire here, and the under is 225-162 (58.1%) in his career behind the plate. He's one of the best under umpires in the game.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star WNBA Play of the WEEK* The Washington Mystics will be without several key contributors here. Elena Delle Donne averages 19 points per game and she's the star of the team. She'll miss this game with a thumb injury. Tayler Hill is out for the season for them too, and she averaged 13.3 points per game. Natasha Cloud is doubtful here and she contributes 4.8 points per game on average.

Brittney Griner is out for the Mercury as well. Both teams are without their stars here, and that should make this lower scoring than a normal matchup between these two.

Add in the fact that we have a Sunday afternoon game that generally trends under, and I like this one. The under is 62-40 in the last 102 WNBA games on Sunday that start by at least 4 pm EST.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Bill Miller is the home plate umpire for this one. Miller is my single favorite umpire to play an under with. Miller has a really high strikes called percentage every year. While other umpires vary from year to year, Miller is consistently a very pitcher-friendly umpire. Sunday is a get away day, and Sunday games have stayed under the total at a higher rate than any other day of the week. The under is 41-20 in Miller's last 61 Sunday games behind the dish.

Both of these starters have had issues with walks in their young careers, but Miller should help that quite a bit. He'll give them the corners far more than the average umpire. The Braves offense is inconsistent, and the Marlins are better against lefties than righties.

The wind is blowing in here and I see this total as inflated a bit.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Gerrit Cole has been tremendous of late. Cole has allowed two runs or less in 8 of his last 9 games. That includes a very good start against San Diego in his last outing. 

The Padres are a team that strikes out a lot, and Cole's strikeout numbers have improved quite a bit in recent weeks. I see him having another strong start here.

Dinelson Lamet has a really high upside. Lamet has been inconsistent this year, but at times he can flat out dominate. The Pirates lineup has been disappointing this year, and they do strike out at a pretty high rate. Lamet is averaging a whopping 11.71 strikeouts per nine innings pitched.

With temperatures falling into the 60's during the game, the ball shouldn't call as well as normal for an August game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Rich Hill has been great of late. Hill has allowed a grand total of five runs in his last five outings. Hill has 5 walks and 40 strikeouts in those games. After struggling earlier in the year, he is back to dealing.

The Mets offense didn't put up anything last night, and I don't think they'll score much here. This is an offense that is due to regress to the mean after a lot of good fortunes so far this season.

Seth Lugo is a decent pitcher, and this is still a pretty good pitcher's park. He certainly has to go against a very good lineup here, but I think he'll hold his own at least.

The two bullpens both rank in the top ten in the past month, and the Dodgers are arguably the best bullpen in baseball.

This total is too high. The under is 5-1 in Hill's last 6 starts.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Jharel Cotton is really struggling with his command both in and out of the zone in the last couple months. He's walked four guys or more on three occasions in his last seven starts. Cotton has also allowed multiple home runs in 4 of his last 6 starts. 

Mike Trout is on fire right now, and he and the Angels offense should get some chances against Cotton and a terrible Oakland bullpen. After the deadline, this A's pen is significantly worse than it was before.

Troy Scribner starts here for the Angels. Scribner had a 4.16 ERA and a 4.73 FIP in Triple A this year, which makes me highly doubt his staying ability in the majors. He has a history of problems with walks. This Oakland offense has some solid power against right handed pitching. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Yu Darvish was rocked in his last outing, but he has elite stuff. I think he starts out with a good outing against a Mets offense that is due for regression to the mean. The Mets have overachieved offensively and their totals have become a bit inflated based on their ridiculous over run for the season.

Not many pitchers have been as locked in as Jacob Degrom of late. Degrom has allowed more than 2 runs in only one of his last nine starts. He has double digit strikeouts in three of his last six starts. He'll face a tough lineup here, but Degrom has allowed only 11 hits in 63 at bats against this Dodgers lineup so far in his career.

Look for a tight low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Washington Nationals offense has been very good consistently this year. They are up against a journeyman in Vance Worley. Worley had poor numbers in Triple A this year. He couldn't strike hardly anyone out. Why should I expect him to be better in the majors? I don't. 

A.J. Cole has lost velocity on his fastball from a couple years ago. He has some major control issues, and he'll put a lot of guys on base. This Marlins lineup has been very good in recent weeks, and Ozuna is red hot in the middle of the lineup.

Both bullpens are exhausted after they were used up yesterday. I don't think the starters give them quality starts here. This one gets high scoring.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Bill Miller is my favorite under umpire in the majors. Miller's strike percentage has been over 65% in four consecutive seasons, which no other umpire has matched. This is a guy that helps the pitchers a bunch.

Robert Stephenson has a high upside, but throwing strikes is a major issue for him. Having a guy like Miller behind the dish should be a huge help for him. The Pirates aren't a patient team either.

Trevor Williams started the season pitching poorly, but his fastball has good movement and he has been pretty solid of late.

Billy Hamilton is questionable with an injury and Zack Cozart is out with an injury. Those are two key pieces in this Reds lineup.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Boston Red Sox start Chris Sale here. Sale has 10 strikeouts or more in six of his last eight games. He has nine strikeouts in the other two games in that span. Sale has pitched a shutout in three straight games. He has allowed 1 run or less in six of the team's last eight games. 

Carlos Carrasco is far less consistent than Sale, and there is some chance he gets hit a decent amount. Still, the Red Sox have an inconsistent lineup and Pedroia is banged up (questionable). 

A slight wind blowing in and an under umpire are two nice bonuses for this play. 

The under is 21-8 in Carrasco's last 29 road starts. The under is 5-1 in Sale's last 6.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Pittsburgh Pirates offense hasn't been good. Pittsburgh has scored three runs or less in 6 of their last 7 games. The Pirates have scored more than 4 runs only twice in their last 14 games.

Clayton Richard isn't very good, and Pittsburgh should get some shots against him, but this is a very pitcher-friendly park and with the Padres recent over run, this game is inflated by half a run. The Padres bullpen has been solid this year.

Gerrit Cole has been shutting people down of late. Cole has allowed 2 runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts. Cole has 5 walks and 26 strikeouts in his last four outings. This Padres lineup is still one of the worst in baseball. The Pirates bullpen has been excellent in the past month.

Sunday is the best under day in baseball by a large margin in the past 10 years. With Cole dealing and the Pirates offense struggling, I'll grab the under in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Dinelson Lamet is a guy I think has a high upside. Lamet gives up a bunch of fly balls, which is a great thing when he is pitching at Petco Park. Lamet has had some great starts at home this year, while he has struggled consistently on the road. 

Ivan Nova is a pitch to contact pitcher, and that is fine at a park like this. Nova doesn't walk anyone, and that helps him get by with giving up more hits than an average pitcher. 

Both bullpens have been much better in the past month. 

These two offenses both rank in the bottom five in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals Takedown* The weather plays a big role in this selection. Winds blowing in from center field of 15 mph during this game will definitely help the pitchers. 

I also think Sean Newcomb and Jerod Eickhoff are young guys who are a bit undervalued by the markets right now. Both of these guys have some good movement on their offspeed pitches.

The Phillies have been hapless this year against lefties (.292 OBP). The Braves offense has been inconsistent this season.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Jacob Degrom has been locked in of late. Degrom has allowed two runs or less in seven of his last eight starts. He isn't giving anyone free passes, and Degrom has always had great strikeout stuff. 

The Mets offense is one that I believe has overachieved pretty drastically this year. The over is a whopping 59-30-11 in the Mets games, and at this point I see their totals getting inflated. Gallardo is obviously nothing special now, but I think he can at least limit the Mets.

This is still a pitcher-friendly park and with a very good pitcher in Degrom throwing on one side, a number of 9 here is too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* It is scorching hot in Texas right now. The temperature at game time is expected to be 100 degrees. The ball flies extremely well in this park when it is this hot. That's a big factor in this play.

Of course it doesn't hurt to have two bad starting pitchers on the mound either. Chris Tillman has been abysmal all year. Tillman's velocity is down and his walks are way up. Tillman is allowing 1.94 homers per nine innings and this isn't a good park to go to for a guy who can't keep the ball in the ballpark. The Rangers hitters have a tremendous .429 on base percentage against Tillman in 128 plate appearances.

Andrew Cashner has been due for regression for a long time. It hasn't come as much as I expected, but I still think it is coming. Cashner is walking 4 guys per nine innings and striking out 4.5 guys per nine innings. That's about as bad as you'll ever see from a big league starter. His SIERA is over 5.5 and he is tightroping his way out of some big innings. 

The Orioles bullpen isn't what it used to be, and the Rangers bullpen is among the worst in baseball. Look for a high scoring contest here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Oakland A's offense has been dreadful of late. Oakland has scored only 8 runs in their last four games combined. The A's now face the Blue Jays best pitcher in Marcus Stroman. 

Stroman has a career 4.09 ERA in the first half of the season. His career ERA in the second half is a full run better at 3.09. Stroman has his best numbers (3.16 ERA) when the roof is closed and with a chance of rain it is likely the roof will be closed for this one. 

Oakland's Sean Manaea is a tremendous young pitcher. He has some maturing to do, but I think he has a really high upside. Manaea has a 3.82 ERA and a 3.55 FIP on the season. 

The Blue Jays offense isn't elite, and I think this total is pricing them like they are. 

This is a get away day game and some of the key starters will likely be out of the lineup for this one.

The under is 4-0 in the A's last 4 road games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 games after scoring 2 runs or less last game. The under is 7-0 in the Blue Jays last 7 home games vs. a road team with a win percentage of 40% or lower on the road. The under is 3-0-1 in Stroman's last 4 home starts. The under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams in Toronto. A 22-0 angle. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies meet on Wednesday night in a battle of two pitchers who have been throwing the ball extremely well of late. 

Mike Fiers has a superb 2.36 ERA over his last 10 starts. He altered his pitch usage and changed up his arm angle a bit at the beginning of that time. It has worked really well. In the last 2 starts, Fiers has 1 walk and 20 strikeouts. This Phillies lineup is about as bad as it gets, and Fiers is dealing.

Aaron Nola has been excellent of late as well. After a slow start to the year, Nola has allowed 2 runs or less in six straight starts. He has gone 7 innings or more in five of those six starts as well which helps avoid this Phillies bullpen.

Gorman is an umpire who helps the under some and the temperature will be moderate here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Rick Porcello has been a much better pitcher in the second half of the season in his career. Porcello has a 4.59 ERA in the first half vs. a 3.76 ERA in the second half of the season. 

Porcello is showing some strong signs of turning the corner. He has 0 walks and 13 strikeouts in his last two starts. With his improved control of late, Porcello has been able to improve his strand rate. This Angels lineup isn't very good. There isn't enough depth here. 

Parker Bridwell has been decent so far this year, and the Red Sox lineup is extremely inconsistent. 

One thing to keep in mind here is we have two teams who have top five bullpens and a high posted total. Vic Carrapazza is the umpire and he's one of the best under umpires in the business. 

The under is 10-0-1 in the Angels last 11 vs. a right hander. The under is 5-0-2 in their last 7 home games vs. a righty. The under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 during game 3 of a series. The under is 5-0 in Porcello's last 5 following a quality start in his last outing. The under is 7-0-1 in Carrapazza's last 8 Sunday games behind home plate. A 33-0 angle. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The White Sox rank in the top five in the majors against lefties, and they aren't many lefties in the majors worse than Travis Wood. Wood has a ridiculous 1.84 WHIP so far this year. He has a 6.81 ERA on the season.

Derek Holland isn't any better. Holland has been miserable this year. In 7 of his last 16 starts, he has allowed a whopping six runs or more. When this guy is off his game, he is REALLY off his game. The Royals offense has been streaky and they have now scored 30 runs in their last three games.

A temperature in the low 90's will help the ball fly well here as well. There were six home runs hit in last night's heat in Kansas City.

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Cleveland Indians start Corey Kluber in this one. It's hard to overstate how good he has been since coming back from an injury on June 1 against Oakland. Kluber hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in a single game during that time. He has struck out 10 batters or more in seven of his nine starts since that date. He has a ridiculous 11 walks compared to 94 strikeouts during that span. Kluber has been locked in.

J.A. Happ is a slightly better than average pitcher and the Indians are a little weaker against lefties than right handed pitching. The Indians have a .194 average against Happ in 65 plate appearances. The Blue Jays bullpen has been underrated this year, and they rank in the top ten in all advanced statistical categories. 

Sunday's are good under days in the majors in the long-term. In fact, Sunday is easily the best day to play unders in the past ten years. Games played in Cleveland with a total of 8.5 or higher and with the wind blowing in are 51-16 to the under (76.1%). 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Jason Vargas has pitched well for the season as a whole, but there were signs of regression on the way for Vargas. He has had good BABIP luck and good strand rate luck as well. In his last two games, Vargas has been absolutely shelled. 

In this one, Vargas must take on a White Sox offense that ranks among the top three in the majors in offensive production against left handed pitchers. 

Mike Pelfrey isn't any good. I probably don't need to tell you that. Pelfrey doesn't miss bats and he is a guy who is prone to the big inning blowup. He'll face a Royals lineup here that is once again hot. They've been streaky all year long.

Mark Carlson is an umpire that lean towards the over. More importantly here, the game time temperature is set to be 100 degrees with the wind blowing out at 10 mph. You won't find better weather for an over than this.

Take the over.  

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Kansas City Royals scored 16 runs in thumping the Detroit Tigers last night. Kansas City has been a really streaky offense this year. The Royals go up against one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball in James Shields.

Shields is about as bad as you'll ever see at this point in his career. Shields has allowed 8 walks and struck out only 7 in his last three outings. Shields has a 5.10 ERA, but a whopping 6.82 FIP on the year. Shields has been very fortunate not to have even worse overall numbers. He could get blown up at any point. Shields is allowing a ridiculous 2.34 homers per nine innings.

Ian Kennedy is an extreme fly ball pitcher, and he has a 4.32 ERA and a 5.27 FIP on the year. Kennedy is a dangerous guy to count on at this point in his career.

A huge factor here is the gametime temperature of 95 degrees. What about the wind? It is expected to be blowing out at about 15 mph. Those factors with these fly ball pitchers makes this an over I have to play.

With the wind playing blowing out at least 6 mph and a temperature of 90 degrees or higher, the over is 21-9 in the last 30 games at Kauffman Stadium.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Boston Red Sox offense is inconsistent, but they have some great potential. Francisco Liriano is dealing with neck discomfort the last few days and is pitching at less than 100 percent. Even at 100 percent, Liriano has been really bad this year. He walks more than 5 guys per nine innings. He puts so many guys on base that he is always walking the tightrope. 

Boston is much better against lefties than righties. The Red Sox have a .275 team batting average and a great .358 OBP against left handers this year. 

Doug Fister has been awful this year. Fister has nearly as many walks as he does strikeouts. He is allowing 1.56 homers per nine innings. His ERA is 6.75 and it isn't a fluke. 

While the Toronto offense has been a disappointment this year, I think they get to Fister in this one.

The wind blowing out and warm temperatures are key. In the past 10 years, with the wind blowing out and a temperature of 80 or higher, the over is cashing at a 62% clip at Fenway Park.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Brewers have been scuffling while the Pirates have heated up. Pittsburgh is winning lately thanks to some tremendous pitching. Both their starters and their bullpen have been amazing. The under is a whopping 22-5-1 in the Pirates last 28 games.

The Brewers offense is struggling a lot right now. Many of the young hitters who were so good for a long time this year are now in a slump. Jimmy Nelson has been pitching great though. Nelson has a whopping 52 strikeouts in his last 8 starts. He has a great track record against Pittsburgh. In 165 plate appearances against Nelson, Pittsburgh hitters have a weak .292 wOBA against him.

Jameson Taillon is a guy I like quite a bit. He doesn't walk many people and he has been great through his career at suppressing homers. 

The early start here is helpful especially since last night's game went into extra innings. Don't be surprised if some key names are out of the lineup.

Ryan Blakney is the umpire here and he is a very good under umpire. The under is 9-2 in his games this year and his strikes called percentage is in the top 10% of all umpires.

The under is 5-0 in the Brewers last 5 games. The under is 4-0-2 in Nelson's last 6 starts on 4 days of rest. The under is 5-0 in the Pirates last 5 following a win. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The under is 5-0-1 in Taillon's last 6 starts. The under is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams in Pittsburgh. A 29-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Tampa Bay Rays rank fifth in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. They face a very weak right hander in Chris Smith tonight. 

Smith is a 36 year old who is a career minor league guy. He's had a couple stops in the majors, but those have been in relief, and he was never very good there. Smith has an 86 mph fastball. When your fastball is 86 in the bigs, you better have great command and some great secondary pitches. Smith has neither. Look for Tampa Bay to get a lot of scoring chances here. It's important to note that the Oakland bullpen which has been a strength of this team is much weaker after trading Doolittle and Madson.

Blake Snell has walked at least three batters in all but two games he has started this year. It is very hard to walk people at that kind of rate and be productive in the majors. Snell gets himself into too many bad spots. Snell has a poor 4.85 ERA, but his SIERA is 5.56, which suggests he has been fortunate so far this season.

Oakland has been a good over team this year partially because they have committed more errors than any other team in baseball. 

Bill Welke is 34-16 to the over in his last 50 behind home plate as the umpire. He's been a solid over umpire for years.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Colorado Rockies host the San Diego Padres on Tuesday night. While it will be a hot one at Coors Field, the wind will be blowing in a bit. More importantly, one of the very best under umpires in baseball is behind the plate. Ron Kulpa has a career 58% under win percentage. In a large sample size, that should tell you a lot about Kulpa. 

What about high totals? The under is 50-20 in Kulpa's last 70 games with a total of 9.5 or higher. That's a little better than 71%. Kulpa will help both of these young pitchers a great deal here.

I'm never excited to play an under at Coors Field, but it is important to keep in mind that the Padres have the worst offense in baseball. Additionally, the Padres bullpen has been really good in the last month. They have some youngsters throwing the ball well right now. 

The Rockies have been a good under team all year as this is a much improved bullpen in Colorado as well.

Dinelson Lamet has high strikeout upside and Antonio Senzatela has done a good job keeping the ball on the ground.

I'll take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* The San Diego Padres bullpen has been a huge surprise this year. If you look at only the past month, the Padres have the single best SIERA of any bullpen in the majors. They are in the top five in all key bullpen numbers in the past month. 

The Phillies bullpen has been really bad for the year, but they actually rank in the top ten in all major categories in the past month as well. Some youngsters have improved of late in the pen for this team. I still don't trust this bullpen a lot, but they are up against a terrible offense in San Diego.

How bad are these offenses? The Phillies have an awful .299 weighted on base average. The Padres are even worse at .293. These are two of the three worst marks in baseball. 

Trevor Cahill has done a great job with his sinker this year. He's getting weak contact and a bunch of ground balls. Eickhoff is a pretty good youngster for the Phillies as well.

In the last game before the break and two bad teams playing- don't be surprised if there are a lot of quick outs as teams are ready to go home for their one break during the season. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Washington Nationals beat the Atlanta Braves in 10 innings last night. These are two bullpens that are among the worst in the majors. Washington has one of the five worst bullpens in baseball. The Braves are one of the bottom ten bullpens in baseball.

Julio Teheran hasn't been right this year. Teheran has pitched a bit better of late, but that was again inferior competition. Now, he'll take on a Nationals lineup that has been tearing the cover off the ball against right handers all year. 

Teheran's walk rate is up drastically from a year ago, and he has been really bad against this Nats lineup in the past. How bad? The Nationals have a .403 OBP and a whopping .445 wOBA (14 home runs) against Teheran.

Stephen Strasburg is obviously very good, but the Braves have given him trouble. They have a good lineup now with Freeman healthy again. Strasburg has allowed a .340 OBP and a .373 wOBA to the Braves. He's been particularly bad against them at home. The over is 36-16-4 in Strasburg's last 56 home starts overall, and he gets great run support in general. 

The temperature in the high 80's helps here as well.

The over is 4-0 in his last 4 home starts vs. the Braves. The over is 4-0-1 in Teheran's last 5 starts vs. the Nationals. The over is 6-0 in home plate umpire Jordan Baker's last 6 games behind the dish. A combined 14-0 trend.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Nationals are second in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching this year. Daniel Murphy and Bryce Harper are on fire of late. This is a deep lineup that has a lot of run producers.

Mike Foltynewicz is coming off a start where he had a no hitter through 8 innings, but remember this is a guy with a FIP, SIERA, and xFIP all above 4.5. He has had several clunkers this year, and this could easily be another.

Gio Gonzalez is due for some major regression. Gonzalez has a 2.77 ERA, but a FIP and xFIP of 4.19 and 4.30. Also, Gonzalez has a terrible track record against the Braves. This Atlanta lineup has a .384 OBP and a .385 wOBA against him.

The weather is favorable here with winds blowing out at 8 mph. 

Both of these bullpens are completely unreliable. Washington is without Glover now and he was their most reliable guy. Atlanta has no bullpen depth either.

Take the over in this one. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Total of the WEEK* The Boston Red Sox offense is on fire right now. Boston has scored 7 runs or more in each of their last five games. This is a scary lineup when healthy, and they are healthy now.

The Texas Rangers have scored 31 runs in their last five games, so the Rangers offense has been very good of late as well.

This is the time of the year where the ball flies very well in Texas. The heat is really helpful and this is a great hitter-friendly park in July and August. 

Both of these pitchers are guys I would expect to get hit hard here. Andrew Cashner has a SIERA of almost 6, and this Boston offense is likely to torch him. Doug Fister has a career ERA of 8.59 when pitching at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. 

In the Rangers last 9 home games, 7 of those games have finished at 12 runs or higher. Not many of them have had worse pitching matchups. 

We draw a guy who is a decent over umpire here in Bruce Dreckman as well. He rates in the top 30% of over umpires according to my umpire spreadsheet. 

The over is 5-0 in the Rangers last 5 games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a right handed pitcher. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. The over is 4-0 in Boston's last 4 road games. The over is 5-0 in Boston's last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. A 22-0 angle.

Take the over big. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Corey Kluber has been absolutely dominating hitters of late. Kluber's domination has been mind boggling. He has allowed a grand total of 3 earned runs in his last four starts. In that span, he has 46 strikeouts and only 4 walks. You don't get much better than that. 

In this one, Kluber faces a Padres lineup that is worse than any lineup he has faced this year. He should make quick work of this lineup. San Diego strikes out a bunch, and Kluber is clearly on his strikeout game of late. 

Trevor Cahill starts for San Diego and he's been good this year. His advanced statistics suggest his low ERA is no fluke. He does a good job getting soft contact and getting batters to hit the ball on the ground.

The wind is blowing in at 10 mph here, and that's a nice bonus.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* This is a very early start time. These two teams aren't accustomed to this kind of start time, and I think that helps the under. Why? Anything that throws off the body clock is generally good for the under in every sport. I don't think baseball is any different. The players go through the motions in these spots more often than normal and we see quick at bats.

The other main reason for the under here is the lineups are going to look a lot different than normal. Yoenis Cespedes is out with an injury here. Michael Conforto is out with an injury. Granderson is questionable. 

Trea Turner is a big loss for the Nats and I think other Nats may sit here. The Nationals played Sunday night baseball and then traveled late. They played last night and now play an 11 am eastern game. This is a classic sit some starters spot.

Seth Lugo has been pretty good this year and Joe Ross has added a decent changeup to his arsenal in his last few outings. 

Given what the lineups will look like, I think this total is at least a full run too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Monday Night MONEY* The New York Yankees offense is very good, but they are pretty hobbled right now. Starlin Castro, Matt Holliday, Aaron Hicks, and Greg Bird are all out of the lineup. 

The Toronto Blue Jays lineup has lots of potential, but they have struggled to put it together in key situations this year.

Masahiro Tanaka is an inconsistent pitcher, but he is showing some very positive signs in recent outings. After allowing a rash of homers for a while, Tanaka hasn't allowed a home run in either of his last two starts. He has 32 strikeouts in his last four starts. He has a 5.56 ERA, but his xFIP is 3.90 and Tanaka seems to have improved command inside the zone in his last few starts.

Marcus Stroman has been very good this year. Stroman has an impressive 10.4% swinging strike rate. 

Stroman and Tanaka have both been great against their opponent in this one. The Yankees hitters have a miserable .238 OBP and a .245 weighted on base average against Stroman. The Blue Jays hitters have an even worse .218 OBP and a .233 wOBA against Tanaka.

The wind is blowing in a little here, and we have two very good bullpens.

The under is 9-1 in Tanaka's last 10 vs. Toronto. The under is 5-1 in Stroman's last 6 starts vs. the Yankees.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Sunday Night Baseball Red Hot CASH* Max Scherzer has been absolutely amazing of late. How good? Scherzer has allowed 1 run or less in 5 of his last 7 starts. He hasn't allowed more than 3 in any of those starts. 

Scherzer has only 8 walks in his last seven starts. In that same span, Scherzer has 75 strikeouts. He is just blowing people away on a consistent basis. 

Carlos Martinez has gotten much better as a starter in the last year. Martinez has developed his secondary pitches nicely, and he is turning into a viable ace for this Cardinals team. 

Both of these offenses are good, but they are both inconsistent. The Nationals will miss Trea Turner at the top of the lineup as well.

St. Louis has struggled with runners in scoring position most of the year, and Scherzer has been able to buckle down in those spots throughout his career.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Tim Adleman hasn't been sharp at all of late. Adleman has walked 13 batters in his last four starts. He has also allowed 7 home runs in those last four starts. He's been fortunate to not allow even more runs than he has of late. The bottom line though: if you continually walk guys and give up hard contact and the long ball at a high rate, you won't have much success in this league.

While the Cubs haven't been consistent on offense this year, they do have a lot of power and that could be a problem for Adleman on Sunday.

Jake Arrieta has been disappointing this year. Arrieta is struggling to locate his pitches right now. The Reds lineup isn't tremendous, but they are much better than expected and Joey Votto is on fire in the middle of the order right now.

John Tumpane is a tremendous over umpire and he's behind the dish here. Winds out at about 10 mph and 87 degrees in Cincinnati means the ball will fly very well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Thursday's BEST Bet* The San Diego Padres are hitting a miserable .213 against lefties this year. That's easily the worst mark in the league. The Padres have a weighted on base average against lefties of only .277. The second worst mark in the majors is .291. 

Jaime Garcia isn't a great lefty, but he shouldn't have to be great against San Diego to have a good outing here. Garcia has a 4.03 ERA on the year, and he's coming off a bad start, but his soft contact percentage is up this year and overall he's had a decent season.

Dinelson Lamet has a really high upside. This is a guy with multiple plus pitches, and he's going to strike out a bunch of batters in his career. Lamet is a perfect fit for this park too. He gives up a lot of fly balls, but that's a big plus at a park like this one.

The Braves rank 20th in wOBA against right handed pitching, so this is a favorable matchup for Lamet.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Minnesota Twins start Kyle Gibson here. Gibson has an awful 6.23 ERA on the year. His FIP is 5.60 and his SIERA is 5.39. Gibson is giving up a ton of hard contact (38.2%). He's walking 4.57 batters per nine innings, and he's allowing 1.52 homers per nine. He's capable of once in a while throwing a gem, but he is usually really bad.

David Price has had a finger injury. Price is allowing nearly 2 home runs per nine innings this year, which is easily the highest of his career. Price has a 4.76 ERA and a 5.70 FIP so far this year. He hasn't been himself, and this Twins lineup has several very good hitters in the middle of the order. 

The weather is a big factor in this play for me. The temperature will be 75 degrees and the winds are blowing out toward left field at 15 mph or higher through this game. When the temperature is 72 degrees or higher and winds are blowing out to center or left at Fenway, the over is 72-41 in the last 113 contests (64% over).

The over is 4-0 in Gibson's last 4 starts vs. the AL East. The over is a whopping 11-0 in Price's last 11 starts following a quality start in his last outing. A 15-0 angle. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Tampa Bay Rays have been amazing against right handed pitching this year. The Rays are fifth in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching and they are first in the majors in ISO against righties. Tampa Bay faces an average right handed starter here in Ivan Nova. Nova doesn't walk anyone, but he also doesn't strike hardly anyone out (less than six per nine innings this year). 

John Tumpane is the umpire here, and he's one of the better over umpires in baseball. Tumpane has a small strike zone and I think that hurts Tampa Bay's Blake Snell a good amount here. Snell has always had trouble finding the strike zone, and Tumpane won't make it easy on him. Snell has walked more than 5 batters per nine innings in his big league career, and his minor league walk numbers aren't much better.

The over is 5-0 in Snell's last 5 starts. The over is 59-29-2 in the Rays last 90 vs. a right handed starter. The over is 11-2-1 in the Pirates last 14 interleague home games.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Chicago White Sox are hitting a miserable .245 against right handed pitching this year. The Yankees have been tremendous against righties, but they are hitting an ugly .242 against lefties.

Luis Severino is a good young right hander for the Yankees. Severino has a 3.30 ERA and a 3.17 xFIP. He's backed by a Yankees bullpen that is back intact with Chapman healthy once again. This is clearly one of the best bullpens in baseball.

Jose Quintana pitched into some really bad luck early this year, but he has four good starts in a row. Quintana has proven himself as a good pitcher in the last few seasons, and right now the oddsmakers are still too low on him. The White Sox have one of the top ten bullpens in baseball as well.

The early sharp money is clearly on the under here. I agree and we have a decent umpire in Wolf and moderate weather with light wind here.

Take the under.