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All Sports Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
11-06-23	USC Upstate v. South Carolina UNDER 141		53-82	Win	100	6 h 16 m	Show
3 Star Play Under South Carolina hosted USC Upstate last year and the final was 68-53 with a very slow pace of 59. South Carolina plays very slowly under Lamont Paris. It makes sense because he was under Bo Ryan before becoming a head coach. Paris' teams are good at controlling the pace and winning with a lack of turnovers and with solid defense. USC Upstate lost their best scorer from a year ago. USC Upstate developed a solid defense last year. The only thing they do too much is foul with their aggressiveness. South Carolina was bottom 40 in the country in getting to the line. I think this one is too high. Take the under.
11-05-23	Colts v. Panthers OVER 44		27-13	Loss	-105	38 h 59 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Indianapolis Colts are an over team. Gardner Minshew is a gunslinger. He can move the team up and down the field, but he can also give the other team a pick six with his questionable decision making at times. The Colts defense is bottom five in the NFL. Indianapolis has been playing quicker of late as well. The Colts last three games have finished 37-20, 39-38, and 38-27. The last two of those were against the Browns and Saints. Both of those teams have suspect offenses and great defenses. If you are able to get very high scoring games against them, I have to look toward the over in your games when they are set this low. Carolina hasn't been a good offense, but I think Bryce Young and company can have some success offensively against a weak secondary and a subpar pass rush in Indianapolis. The Panthers have had 3 of their last 5 games get over 60 points total, so they are capable of being in shootouts. The weather looks good for this one. Take the over.
11-05-23	Commanders v. Patriots OVER 40.5		20-17	Loss	-110	11 h 59 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Washington Commanders have had one strength on defense in the last couple years- they had a good pass rush because of a strong defensive line. They traded away that big strength. Chase Young and Montez Sweat both were traded away this week. Washington has been a bottom five defense in the NFL in yards per play even before these trades, and now they are worse. The New England Patriots have been slowed by quite a few injuries on the defensive side of the football this year. They are still a decent defense, but they are far from the dominant defense we've seen in past seasons. Washington's Sam Howell is willing to take chances and I think he can hit on some deep passes against the Patriots secondary. The Patriots offense should look much better without a pass rush on them. This total is set very low for a game involving a very weak defense and no weather issues. Take the over.
11-04-23	Missouri v. Georgia OVER 54.5		21-30	Loss	-110	72 h 60 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Georgia offense is better than people realize. Georgia's Carson Beck is playing good football right now. Even without Brock Bowers, Georgia has solid weapons in the passing game. Georgia put up 486 yards and 7.4 yards per play against Florida last week. The Bulldogs are capable of big things on offense. Missouri's offense has been much improved this year. The play caller here is doing a good job taking advantage of Missouri having one of the best WR rooms in the country this year. Brady Cook has been excellent and Burden and company are a tough cover for anyone. Georgia's defense is clearly very good, but what good offense have they faced this year? This is one of the weakest opposing offenses schedules you could find. Missouri will be the best offense they have seen this year. The Missouri defense allowed 21 points to Vandy. They gave up 27 points to Kansas State. LSU put up 8.1 yards per play and 49 points on them. The Tigers defense is worse than they were a year ago. Take the over here.
11-04-23	South Florida v. Memphis OVER 66.5		50-59	Win	100	134 h 30 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Memphis Tigers won 45-42 over North Texas last weekend. Memphis gained 600 yards of total offense, but they allowed 591 total yards. Both teams averaged better than 8 yards per play. Memphis has 44 plays of 20 yards or more on the season. They are solid offensively and are pretty explosive. South Florida has 44 plays of 20 yards or more on the season as well. What about the defenses? Both defenses have given up loads of explosive plays this year. USF is 130th in explosiveness allowed (out of 133 teams). USF is second in the nation in tempo. The Bulls are absolutely flying on offense. Alex Golesh and this group want to turn every game into a track meet. USF has seen four of their last five games finish with 70 combined points or more. USF has allowed 56 points twice in their last three games. Memphis is allowing 5.47 yards per carry in AAC play. USF is 123rd in yards per play allowed on the season. The pace here will be very quick and I like this one to be high scoring. Take the over.
11-04-23	Kansas State v. Texas UNDER 51		30-33	Loss	-110	92 h 17 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Kansas State Wildcats are a run heavy offense. They are running the ball on 61% of their offensive plays in Big 12 play. Texas is first in the Big 12 in run defense, and the Longhorns big defensive front should slow down Kansas State much better than the Wildcats recent foes have. Kansas State's secondary was weak early in the season, but they have been amazing of late. In their last two games, Kansas State allowed 3 points against TCU and 0 points against Houston. Texas is without Quinn Ewers at quarterback. Maalik Murphy wasn't asked to do very much last week against BYU. I think Ewers will be missed especially because of his ability to throw the ball deep. Kansas State likely wants to run the ball and play slowly here. Both teams have looked excellent on defense lately. I expect a tight hard fought battle. Take the under.
10-30-23	Mavs v. Grizzlies UNDER 228.5		125-110	Loss	-110	8 h 51 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Dallas Mavericks and Memphis Grizzlies meet tonight. Dallas has had two high scoring games this year so far, but the Grizzlies are one of the best defensive teams in the league. Marcus Smart is a great defensive player, but his efficiency numbers on offense aren't likely to be very good especially with the Grizzlies shorthanded right now. With Smart and Jackson the Grizzlies have two of the very best defensive players in the league. I do think they can matchup better defensively with Dallas than most teams. The Mavericks have played fast so far this season, but I think that is at least partially because of who they have played against in those two games. Divisional unders early in the season have been great in the past decade. The referees in this one are a big plus for lower scoring. Two of the three refs here have a large sample size and are 54.4% and 55.7% to the under in their career. Take the under.
10-29-23	Rams v. Cowboys OVER 45.5		20-43	Win	100	10 h 42 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The NFL has had a lot of low scoring games this year. The under has been cashing at a really high rate. That usually tends to regress at least somewhat toward the mean after extremes. This game is being played on the fast track in Dallas. Both of these quarterbacks have shown to be very good when in these conditions. The Rams offense is very good now with two great receivers on the outside. Diggs being out for Dallas definitely hurts them against this kind of passing attack. The Cowboys offense underachieved the last couple games before their bye week. They put a lot of time and focus into turning things around this week. I expect a sharper performance from their offense. Take the over.
10-28-23	Colorado v. UCLA UNDER 63.5		16-28	Win	100	72 h 40 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The new clock rules have really made a difference in the higher total games. There is only so much time to score with the clock moving even after first downs. There will certainly still be some very high scoring games, but they have become more rare. Totals of 62 points or higher are 34-20 to the under this season. Colorado has allowed 35 sacks. This Buffaloes offensive line is going to be beaten badly here. PFF rates the UCLA pass rush the e highest of anny in the country. Sanders is going to be under a lot of heat here. Colorado does play quickly but they aren’t always efficient. The Colorado run defense isn't good, but it has been less bad in recent weeks. They are allowing only 3.94 YPC in Pac 12 play. Only one of UCLA’s games against FBS competition has finished higher than 45 points. Ethan Garbers is a more conservative quarterback and I think that could lead to less pick sixes and short fields for the opposition which Moore had done all too often. Take the under here.
10-28-23	Vanderbilt v. Ole Miss OVER 62.5		7-33	Loss	-110	24 h 23 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Vanderbilt Commodores defense has been atrocious this year. They have given up 126 plays of 10 yards or more on the season thus far. In the SEC, they are allowing 6.85 yards per play. Vanderbilt gives up big plays in bunches, and Ole Miss is the definition of a big play offense. Ole Miss has 52 plays of 20 yards or more already this season (3rd best in the country). The Rebels can do it through the air or on the ground. I don't think they'll get to 4th down very often in this game at all. Vanderbilt's offense isn't great, but through the air they have some explosiveness. That is a good fit here since Ole Miss has been weakest in the secondary. Ole Miss is 84th in total QBR allowed. They are 90th in pass play success rate allowed. The two teams are 7th and 14th in the nation in explosiveness on offense. These two met last year and Ole Miss won 52-28. Ole Miss had 9.9 yards per play. Vanderbilt's defense is worse this year. Take the over.
10-28-23	Miami-OH v. Ohio UNDER 39		30-16	Loss	-108	21 h 58 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Ohio Bobcats are nothing like they were last year. Ohio is excellent defensively this year. They are bottom 10 in the country in tempo. The Bobcats are happy to win low scoring games with strong defense this season. 6 of Ohio’s 8 games have finished with a combined total of 37 points or fewer. The Miami OH defense has been tremendous especially in MAC play. They are allowing an average of 11.25 points per games in the MAC. Salopek is a star linebacker that leads the way for them. Miami OH will be without star quarterback Brett Gabbert who had season ending surgery after an injury in the second half of the Toledo game. Aveon Smith is a decent backup, but there is a significant drop off from Gabbert to Smith. Smith is a runner first and he makes the Miami OH offense much more predictable. Gabbert’s big play ability in the passing game is no longer there. Both teams rank in the bottom 25 in the country in terms of tempo. There shouldn't be many big plays here. It's a very low total, but I think it's low for a good reason. Take the under.
10-27-23	Florida Atlantic v. Charlotte UNDER 42		38-16	Loss	-110	115 h 32 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Charlotte 49ers have shown us their game plan pretty clearly at this point. Charlotte wants to play as slowly as possible and run the football and control the time of possession. Charlotte is using 31 seconds between plays in their conference games. The 49ers rank in the bottom 10 in tempo in the country. Charlotte is 126th in the nation in rushing play success rate, but they are running the ball on more than 60% of their offensive plays in the conference. Charlotte's defense is much improved under Biff Poggi who is a defensive minded coach. The 49ers are 32nd in success rate allowed. They are giving up just 4.52 yards per play in conference action so far. Florida Atlantic has been a big disappointment on offense so far this year. The Owls have been held to 187 points or fewer in four of their seven games. They gained just 2.9 yards per play against a mediocre UTSA defense last week. Charlotte has seen 4 of their 7 games (including 3 of their last 4) this year finish with a combined total of 29 points or fewer. This is the type of game Charlotte wants to play with their lack of big playmakers on offense. Take the under.
10-25-23	Pelicans v. Grizzlies UNDER 227.5		111-104	Win	100	18 h 45 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The New Orleans Pelicans and Memphis Grizzlies square off in a nice divisional contest in their first game of the new season for both teams. Early in the NBA season the under has typically cashed a bit more frequently than the over in the past 20 years. The angle is much stronger when it is a divisional game. The higher the posted total the stronger the angle has been. This is a high total because games between these two are typically pretty fast in pace. Both of these teams were top 6 in defensive efficiency last year. Marcus Smart is a good add for the Grizzlies team. Without Ja Morant, the Grizzlies are without their offensive star. Smart is an excellent defender though. Jaren Jackson Jr. is one of the best defenders in the NBA. Herb Jones is a strong defender for the Pelicans. The Pelicans slowed their pace down last year on the whole to a league average. Take the under here.
10-22-23	Lions v. Ravens UNDER 42		6-38	Loss	-109	121 h 8 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Baltimore Ravens defense is second in the NFL in yards per play allowed at 4.0. The Detroit Lions defense is fifth in the NFL in yards per play allowed at just 4.7. Everyone knew the Ravens would have a solid defense and they do, but the Lions defense has improved so much from the past couple years. Baltimore's offense has been inconsistent this year. The Ravens gained just 5.1 YPP against a mediocre Titans defense last week. The Ravens sit at just 5.2 yards per play on average for the season overall. The Detroit offense hasn't had to face many good defenses yet. They put up just 20 against a pretty good Atlanta defense. They scored only 20 on Tampa Bay last weekend. The weather in this one should be a factor. All of the longer range forecasts are calling for a very windy game here. There are expected to be sustained winds of about 20 mph with gusts of around 35 mph. That is enough to really change the game and make things much more conservative. Take the under.
10-22-23	Bills v. Patriots UNDER 41		25-29	Loss	-110	98 h 43 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The New England Patriots offense is an absolute mess right now. New England couldn't score a point against New Orleans a couple weeks ago, and the offense was still very weak with only 259 total yards of offense against a mediocre Raiders defense last week. Buffalo's offense has been very inconsistent this year. The Bills struggled badly to score last week against the Giants. The Bills defense has held 3 of their last 5 opponents to 10 points or fewer. I consider New England a bottom three offense in the the NFL, but the Pats also have a top five or so defense in the NFL. The weather should be a nice bonus here too. The forecast calls for sustained winds of around 18 mph with gusts of 35 mph during this game. That should help cut down on the downfield passing game and make both teams more conservative. Take the under.
10-21-23	Georgia State v. UL-Lafayette OVER 58		20-17	Loss	-110	138 h 50 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns were off last weekend. Louisiana has played five FBS opponents this year. The final combined total points scored in those games were: 69, 62, 83. 59, and 64 points. Louisiana is 12th in the nation in yards per play. They are balanced team who can beat you through the air or on the ground. Georgia State is 41st in the nation in yards per play on offense. The Panthers play quickly (39th in the nation in tempo). Georgia State is 11th in the nation in explosive plays on offense. Defensively, Georgia State is 121st in explosiveness allowed. The Panthers allowed 35 points against Rhode Island and 25 points against a really bad Charlotte offense. Even in their win last week, Georgia State gave up 6.7 yards per play against Marshall. Take the over in this one.
10-21-23	Buffalo v. Kent State UNDER 46		24-6	Win	100	121 h 54 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Buffalo Bulls defense looked terrible in the non-conference slate. They have played better against MAC competition. Obviously the MAC is a weak conference, but this has been a common trend for Buffalo. The defense ends up being above average in MAC play. Buffalo has given up just 4.83 yards per play in three MAC games. Kent State's offense is averaging a miserable 3.89 yards per play in the MAC. For the season as a whole, Kent State is 132nd out of 133 teams in the country in yards per play. Buffalo's offense has very little big play ability. In fact, Buffalo has only five plays of 30 yards or more all season long. Kent State's biggest weakness as a defense has been giving up the big play, but I don't think Buffalo will take advantage of that. Buffalo is 127th in the nation in yards per play on offense. These are two really weak offenses. The weather forecast here calls for 16 mph winds with gusts above 20 mph and showers during the day on Saturday. This is a long range forecast, and the weather is just a bonus. Take the under. This line has been moving down some throughout the week. I would still play this as long as it is 42 points or higher. Thanks and good luck.
10-21-23	Tennessee v. Alabama UNDER 49.5		20-34	Loss	-110	95 h 50 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Tennessee Volunteers offense is extremely reliant on being able to run the ball this year. Joe Milton's efficiency has been very poor in games against good opponents. Tennessee scored just 20 points against Texas A&M. They scored only 16 points against Florida. Alabama will easily be the best defense the Volunteers have faced. Alabama ranks #1 in overall defense grade at PFF. Alabama held a very good Ole Miss offense to 10 points at home earlier this year. Alabama is very run heavy this year on offense. Jalen Milroe is inconsistent through the air. Alabama has run the ball on 63% of their plays so far this year. Tennessee's defense is much improved from a couple years ago. The Volunteers are 5th in the nation in success rate allowed. They are 7th in defensive line yards. I think they could give the Alabama offensive line a tough time here. This total looks low when you consider what these two teams did last year, but these teams are very different than a year ago. I think the low total is justified. Take the under.
10-20-23	Phillies v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5		5-6	Win	100	18 h 17 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Philadelphia Phillies offense has been on fire in the postseason. They were quieted for one game yesterday, but I think they'll get going again here. Mantiply is expected to start what is basically a bullpen game. Ryne Nelson or Slade Cecconi will likely see some innings here as well. The DBacks bullpen is one of their biggest weaknesses. Philadelphia should get traffic on the bases and take advantage of those opportunities here. Christopher Sanchez starts for the Phillies. Sanchez was good this year, but he hasn't pitched since September 30th. He is a young pitcher and pitchers are creatures of habit. This is a really tough spot to put him in. Arizona was much better offensively at home this season. Chase Field's roof is expected to be open for this game with the later start. The hot weather with the roof open here really helps the ball carry well. I think this will be a higher scoring contest. Take the over.
10-19-23	Jaguars v. Saints UNDER 41.5		31-24	Loss	-110	90 h 5 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The New Orleans Saints have a top five defense in the NFL. Dennis Allen is a fantastic defensive minded coach. The Saints defense is strong on all levels. There is no clear weakness. New Orleans is also a very questionable offensive team. The Saints play calling on offense leaves a lot to be desired. They play slowly and don't hit many big plays. The Jacksonville Jaguars scored 37 points against the Colts so you would think they were great on offense in that one. They were not even good offensively. It was the Colts turnovers that led to the points. In fact, the Jaguars offense put up just 233 total yards and 3.8 yards per play. The Jaguars defense now ranks in the top 10 in the NFL in most categories. They held the Colts to 4.8 yards per play. Trevor Lawrence is banged up and is getting tests on his knee. He is likely to be less than 100 percent here (assuming he will play). This is a short week. The Saints have now played 12 straight games that have stayed under this total. Their highest combined total this year is 37 points. Take the under.
10-15-23	Saints v. Texans UNDER 41		13-20	Win	100	155 h 51 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The New Orleans Saints defense has been tremendous all season. New Orleans is also a very cautious offense compared to most in the NFL. They don't take many shots down the field. New Orleans scored 34 points against New England last game, but that is pretty misleading. They averaged just 4.3 YPP. They got a pick six and had multiple short fields due to bad turnovers and the Pats going for it from their own side. Houston was beaten right as the clock hit zero by Atlanta 21-19 last game. C.J. Stroud has been fantastic this year. I still think he will find it tougher going in this one than in most games because this Saints secondary is the real deal. The Texans defense is scrappy and they are limiting big plays. Both teams are coached by defensive minded head coaches. The Saints have played a stunning 11 straight games that have finished at a combined 40 points or lower. This year, they have had all 5 of their games finish at 37 points or lower. I like this one to stay a defensive battle. Take the under.
10-14-23	UAB v. UTSA OVER 64.5		20-41	Loss	-110	125 h 57 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The UTSA Roadrunners got their star quarterback Frank Harris back last Saturday. Harris had been badly banged up earlier this year and tried to play through it. He then had to sit out for a period of time. UTSA's offense finally looked like what we expected last weekend. UTSA put up 49 points and 7.3 yards per play in their win over Temple last weekend. UTSA's defense has disappointed this year. The secondary in particular lost a lot of talent from a year ago, and the drop off has been significant. Temple put up 542 yards in that 49-34 loss to UTSA last weekend. UAB has been throwing the ball a lot. Zeno is a quality quarterback for the Blazers. UAB ranks 19th in success rate on offense. They are throwing the ball on 53.6% of their offensive plays. UAB hasn't had a game against an FBS opponent finish with less than 58 points total this year. Two of their four against FBS opponents finished with 81 and 84 points. The UAB defense is extremely weak. They are 130th in success rate allowed. They have allowed 35 points or more in every game against an FBS opponent this season. A fast track here for two offenses ranking in the top 20 in tempo. Take the over.
10-14-23	UCLA v. Oregon State UNDER 55.5		24-36	Loss	-110	80 h 41 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Oregon State is 105th in the nation in tempo. 56.5% of their plays on offense are a run. I think they want to establish the run in this one. Oregon State is a good run defense (3.21 ypc) on the year. Oregon State should at least hold its own against the run of UCLA. UCLA’s Dante Moore is capable of big things, but Chip Kelly doesn’t look like he fully trusts him yet.. He also has an OLine that isn’t pass protecting well. 110th in pass blocking grade. I knew the UCLA defensive front was good, but I didn’t expect them to shut down a great passing attack like Washington State last week. Washington State had a 19%!!! Success rate on passing downs last week. UCLA is 1st in the nation in yards per play allowed. They have a 93.2 PFF overall defense grade. 2nd best in the country. UCLA 6th in explosiveness allowed. An excellent defense so far this year. UCLA hasn’t played a game against an FBS opponent this year that finished with more than 45 total points. I’m on the under.
10-14-23	Wyoming v. Air Force UNDER 45		27-34	Loss	-110	139 h 21 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Air Force Falcons are 133rd in tempo out of 133 teams in the country. They are running the football on 94% of their offensive plays. With the new clock rules, the Air Force games are really going to move quickly. There aren't many possessions in their games. The Falcons have only faced one good run defense (Sam Houston) and that game was 13-3. Wyoming has played against some pretty good offenses this year, and I tend to think the Wyoming defense is a little better than their year to date stats look. Craig Bohl's teams have a history of being very good at defending the triple option as well. Andrew Peasley isn't a good quarterback. He just had a fantastic game against Fresno State, but I don't expect to see a repeat of that. Air Force is 4th in yards per play allowed this year. The Falcons are a veteran defense that does not give up big plays. The last three meetings between these two teams were 20-6, 24-14, and 17-14. I don't see any reason to expect this one to be a higher scoring game. Take the under.
10-14-23	Bowling Green v. Buffalo UNDER 45.5		24-14	Win	100	76 h 5 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The weather forecast in this one calls for rain throughout the day on Saturday and sustained winds of 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. That is significant enough to change the way the game is played. Buffalo prefers to throw the football, but they are unlikely to be able to throw it downfield much in this weather. Buffalo is averaging just 3.51 ypc (111th in the country). Bowling Green should be able to cheat up in the box to stop the run more here. Bowling Green on offense is 118th in success rate so far this year. The Falcons are 99th in success rate in the running game. Buffalo's run defense is 51st in success rate allowed on the ground. PFF grades Buffalo as the 31st ranked run defense in the country. With the weather and game plans being changed by it, I'll take the under.
10-14-23	Troy v. Army UNDER 43.5		19-0	Win	100	73 h 56 m	Show
3 Star Play Under These two teams met last year and the final was Troy 10 Army 9. While I don't expect a game that low again, I do think this total is too high. Army is 131st in pace of play this year. They run the ball on 75% of their plays on offense. Army is going up a Troy defense that is ranked #7 in the country in run defense by PFF. Troy is 12th in the nation in yards per carry allowed. I think Army will find it hard to move the football here. Troy's offensive line is their biggest weakness. They get too many big negative plays and get behind the sticks. The weather is an extra help here too. The forecast calls for half an inch or more of rain during the day at West Point. Winds of 10-12 mph are expected as well. There should be even less of a downfield passing attack from these two teams based on the weather. Expect a lot of running and the clock to keep ticking here. Take the under.
10-14-23	Texas A&M v. Tennessee UNDER 55.5		13-20	Win	100	26 h 7 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Tennessee Volunteers offense hasn't been nearly as explosive or consistently good this year. Hendon Hooker was a perfect fit for the offense, and to this point Joe Milton really hasn't been. Milton can make a highlight play once in a while, but his passing efficiency numbers are very poor. He hasn't been able to stretch the field, and now without Bru McCoy the wide receivers aren't nearly as good. Tennessee will want to run the football here, but Texas A&M is 6th in YPC allowed. Tennessee and Texas A&M have both been excellent at getting into the backfield and creating big negative plays with their front seven. I think it will be tough for the offenses to stay ahead of schedule here. The Volunteers defense is much better than it was a couple years ago. Tennessee ranks 10th in the nation in success rate allowed. The weather should be a bit of a boost here for the under too. A chance of showers (not much rain) and winds of 17 mph with gusts to 28 mph is the average of four forecasts here. Those kinds of winds are the key. It should help keep the play calling a bit more conservative. Take the under.
10-14-23	Navy v. Charlotte UNDER 45		14-0	Win	100	24 h 18 m	Show
4 Star Play Under Charlotte’s biggest strength as a team is their defensive line. Biff Poggi is a unique guy and he knows defense. I think Charlotte is better suited to slow down the unique option that Navy is running than most teams. I know Navy isn’t just a triple option team now, but let’s be honest they are definitely still an option team.. They have run the ball on 79% of their offensive plays this year. Navy is 123rd out of 133 teams in tempo. With all those running plays and the new clock rules, the clock will keep moving a lot when they have the ball. Even if they score it should take a lot of time off the clock. Charlotte is running the ball on 58% of their offensive plays. I think they want it to be even higher than that, but they have been down big in some games and had to start throwing it more. Charlotte 115th in tempo. Conservative play calling from both teams and I don’t see many big plays from either side. A game that likely gets completed in 3 hours or less. I’ll take the under expecting a 21-17 type game.
10-14-23	Kent State v. Eastern Michigan UNDER 45.5		14-28	Win	100	132 h 13 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Eastern Michigan Eagles are 132nd out of 133 teams in the country in offensive explosiveness. Kent State's defense isn't good, but they have been burned by big plays quite a bit. Eastern Michigan hasn't proven capable of getting big gainers consistently even against weaker defenses. Eastern Michigan is 125th in tempo, and the Eagles run the ball a lot. They use up a bunch of time on their drives. Austin Smith isn't a good passer and the opposing defenses have started to figure out that Eastern Michigan is a weak downfield passing team. Kent State's offense is awful. The Golden Flashes are 132nd in the nation in yards per play. Kent State is running the ball on nearly 65% of their plays, but they are 131st in rushing play success rate. Eastern Michigan is 15th in explosiveness allowed. The Eagles aren't likely to give up big plays here. The long range weather forecast calls for showers and sustained winds during this game. I'm going to go ahead and bet the under as I expect a move down during the week. Take the under.
10-11-23	Dodgers v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5		2-4	Loss	-115	20 h 6 m	Show
3 Star Play Over Lance Lynn had a 5.73 ERA and a 5.53 FIP this season. Lynn is 36 years old and is far past his prime. He is allowing more than 2 home runs per nine innings this year. Lynn has a FIP of 6.16 since pitching as a Dodger. This year Lynn has a wOBA allowed of .368 in road starts. Brandon Pfaadt had a 5.72 ERA and a 5.18 FIP on the season. Pfaadt started the playoff opener in Milwaukee too and pitched just 2.2 innings and allowed 7 hits and 3 runs. Pfaadt has a 6.46 ERA and a .379 wOBA allowed at home this year. The Dodgers lineup has been quiet in the first two games of this series, but this Dodgers lineup is still stacked. They are a top three lineup in baseball. The Dodgers have a stellar .470 wOBA against Pfaadt. Chase Field is a good hitters park. The roof is likely to be open here based on the moderate weather in Arizona for this one. That is a positive for runs to be scored. Take the over.
10-10-23	Astros v. Twins UNDER 8		9-1	Loss	-105	15 h 43 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Minnesota Twins host the Houston Astros on Tuesday afternoon. This series is tied up at 1-1. Minnesota's Target Field was slightly below average in run scoring according to MLB Park Factors. Minnesota starts Sonny Gray in this game. Gray has been consistently very good this season. Gray has pitched 26.1 innings this year and has a 2.39 ERA in the postseason. Cristian Javier wasn't very good most of this season, but he pitched his best baseball of the season in the last three starts of the regular season. Javier has a great postseason history too. Javier has thrown 32.2 innings and has a 2.20 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP in the postseason. Bill Miller is the home plate umpire for this game. He is a pitcher's best friend. He had a strikeout/walk ratio of an extremely high 3.66 this season. Take the under here.
10-08-23	Saints v. Patriots UNDER 40		34-0	Win	100	84 h 28 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The New Orleans Saints defense is solid in all areas. They are coached by a defensive minded coach, and they do a good job of minimizing big plays allowed. On the other side, New Orleans has a weak offense. The Saints are averaging just 4.4 yards per play (29th in the NFL). If you took under 40 (a very low total in today's NFL) in the last 10 games involving the New Orleans, you would be a perfect 10-0. The Saints have yet to have a game finish with a combined score higher than 37 this year. They have scored 17 points or fewer in three of their four contests. The New England Patriots are clearly a bottom eight offense in the NFL. They don't have the game breakers to threaten strong defenses. New England is still a well coached defense, and I would expect the Pats to be far more ready to play after being embarrassed last weekend by Dallas. The weather here is a factor too. Sustained winds of about 17 mph with gusts to 27 mph during this game are a help for the defenses. Take the under.
10-07-23	Oregon State v. California UNDER 52		52-40	Loss	-110	76 h 38 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Oregon State Beavers rank 4th in yards per carry allowed on the season. Cal's offense is heavily reliant on the running game. Jadyn Ott is a good running back, but the Cal offensive line is 120th at PFF in run blocking grade. I think Cal will find it difficult to get things going on the ground in this one. Oregon State is 90th in tempo, and the Beavers want to run the football. Cal is 35th in YPC allowed. Oregon State's passing attack has not been explosive. Musgrave was a big loss for the Oregon State offense. The main guys Oregon State can lean on is Fenwick and Martinez at running back. DJU has been pretty good at QB, but the offense appears designed to play it relatively safe with him in the passing game. Oregon State's battle with SD State finished with 35 points total. Oregon State and Utah finished with 28 points total. Cal played a 14-10 game against Auburn. They also just finished with only 4.2 yards per play in a 24-21 win over Arizona State. Take the under here.
10-07-23	San Jose State v. Boise State OVER 57		27-35	Win	100	32 h 55 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Boise State Broncos are going to give both Taylen Green and Maddux Madsen playing time at quarterback in this one. Boise State has put up 42, 34, and 32 points in their last three games. The Broncos have a star running back in Jeanty, and both of the quarterbacks are playing well. Boise State ranks 14th in the nation in rushing play success rate. San Jose State's defense ranks 121st in rushing play success rate allowed. San Jose State has a pretty good offense led by Cordeiro at quarterback. The Spartans should have the ability to throw it fairly well against a Boise State secondary that is way down from a year ago. The Spartans put up 6.8 YPP against a solid Air Force defense in their last game. Boise State ranks 129th in the nation in YPP allowed on the season. The total has come down a bit here, and I will side with the over. The weather here looks perfect for this contest. Take the over.
10-07-23	Notre Dame v. Louisville UNDER 54.5		20-33	Win	100	68 h 53 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Louisville Cardinals offense has been feast or famine so far this year. Louisville is all about breaking explosive plays. Louisville has broken 22 plays of 30 yards or more on the season. They are 20th in explosiveness on offense this year. Their defenses faced are: GA Tech, Murray State, Indiana, Boston College, NC State. Of those five defenses, not a single one of them is ranked in the top 65 in the country in yards per play allowed. Notre Dame is 10th in yards per play allowed. Notre Dame's defense is designed to not give up big plays. The Fighting Irish have allowed only 52 plays of 10 yards ore more in five games. The Notre Dame secondary is the best Louisville has played, and the the Fighting Irish run defense is very strong. Louisville's Jack Plummer has looked bad when under pressure and I think he'll get heat in this one. Louisville's defense is 20th in success rate allowed this season. The Notre Dame offense is at their best when running the football and taking time off the clock. Notre Dame's wide receivers are the weakness of the team and they are shorthanded right now too. Notre Dame has been in two low scoring contests in the last two weeks. This one should be higher than those two, but I like to stay lower than this posted total. Take the under here.
10-07-23	Old Dominion v. Southern Miss OVER 55		17-13	Loss	-110	115 h 12 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Old Dominion Monarchs offense is a completely new system this year under new OC Kevin Decker. Decker's teams at Fordham set all kinds of records for scoring. His innovative sets were constantly applauded by other FCS teams. Decker is doing a nice job with Old Dominion's offense too. Old Dominion is flying up and down the field with their new uptempo system. Old Dominion is 11th in tempo in the country (out of 133). Old Dominion just put up 41 points and 8.0 yards per play on a good Marshall defense last week. They have only had one low scoring game this year and that was their game against FCS Texas A&M Commerce. That game was played in very poor weather conditions. Southern Miss previously had a very good defense, but the Golden Eagles defense is a clear weakness now. They are 130th out of 133 in the country in yards per play allowed at 6.99. They have managed to give up 17 plays of 30 yards or more already this season. Old Dominion is going to get some explosive plays here. Southern Miss is better on offense than they have been in recent years. Old Dominion has played a weak schedule of opposing offenses, and I believe the Monarchs defense is still fairly weak. This one has dropped to a key number here and I'll side with the over. Take the over. This line has moved up some during the week. I would play this up to 59, but not higher than that. Thanks and good luck
10-07-23	South Florida v. UAB OVER 65.5		35-56	Win	100	136 h 20 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The USF Bulls brought in Alex Golesh in the offseason as their new head coach. In the offseason he said an extremely high priority for the team was pushing the pace to the extreme this year. USF ranks 5th in the nation in tempo so far this year. The USF offense wasn't firing on all cylinders right away, but there are great signs the last couple weeks. USF put up 42 points and 8.5 yards per play two weeks ago on Rice. This past weekend they put up 435 yards and 44 points on Navy. They now go against a UAB defense that grades out as worse than Rice or Navy on defense. UAB is playing very fast under Trent Dilfer too. UAB ranks 13th in the nation in tempo. The Blazers have played two really good defenses the last two weeks in Georgia and Tulane. They put up a solid 21 on Georgia and 23 on Tulane. UAB is throwing the ball on 57% of pass plays, and the USF secondary is a clear weakness. The pace will be there and I think both teams will put up a big number. Take the over. This line has moved up some since earlier in the week. I would play this for a 4 star rating up to 69 points and for 3 stars at anything higher than that. Thanks and good luck.
10-07-23	Kent State v. Ohio UNDER 47		17-42	Loss	-110	134 h 13 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Ohio Bobcats defense has really impressed me this season. Ohio is 12th in the nation in yards per play allowed. In their last three games against Florida Atlantic, Iowa State, and Bowling Green they have allowed a total of 24 points. Against FAU, the defense gave up no touchdowns. The FAU touchdown was a pick six. Holding a Big 12 team to 7 points is excellent. Bowling Green just went to GA Tech and won too. Kent State's offense is 132nd in the nation in yards per play. The Golden Flashes have very little chance of having any true success on offense in this game. Ohio's defense is too good. The question is- how many points will Ohio score? Ohio's offense is just 121st in yards per play so far this year. I do think they'll have success against Kent State's weak defense in general. However, Ohio has shown a strong tendency to slow the pace and not run up the score when they have a big lead. Ohio has won two games by 17 or more. They haven't scored a single point in the fourth quarter of either of those games. Ohio is 122nd in the nation in tempo. In the Bowling Green game where they had a big lead, they played one of the slowest tempos of any team in a game this season. Kent State likely struggles to get to 10. Ohio has bigger fish to fry and I'm not convinced they'll try to run up the score. The long range forecast shows some winds in the 15 or 20 mph range here too. Take the under. This one has moved down a bit during the week with the news of the weather being windy. I would play this for 4 stars down to 45, and for 3 stars lower than that. Thanks and good luck.
10-07-23	North Texas v. Navy OVER 59		24-27	Loss	-110	134 h 13 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The North Texas Mean Green have played four games so far this year. The total scores in those four games finished at: 79 points, 75 points, 77 points, and 76 points. North Texas is 16th in the nation in tempo. The Mean Green will push the pace all through the season. North Texas is 17th in the nation in explosiveness on offense. North Texas is averaging a nice 6.41 yards per play on offense. They are up against a Navy defense that ranks 118th in the nation in success rate allowed. The North Texas defense is arguably the worst in the nation. North Texas allowed 46 points against a brutal FIU offense. They are 127th in the nation in yards per play allowed at 6.75. Navy's offense is 44th in the nation in yards per carry. North Texas is dead last in the nation in yards per carry allowed at 5.88 ypc allowed. The Mean Green are likely to get burned by the option quite a few times here. Navy's Horvath has shown the capability to throw a few decent deep passes the last couple games too. With the two weak defenses, I have to go over this number. Take the over.
10-05-23	Bears v. Commanders OVER 44		40-20	Win	100	29 h 41 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Chicago Bears defense is awful. They aren't good even when they have a healthy secondary, and now they have a banged up secondary and have the worst pass defense in the NFL. The Bears are 31st in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Chicago has looked better on offense the last couple weeks. The Bears are a middle of the road offense and the worst or second worst defense in the NFL. I see Chicago as an over team right now. Washington has topped 30 points in two of their four games. The Commanders do have enough skill position talent to break some big gainers, especially against a very weak Chicago defense. Chicago's games have finished with 51, 44, 51, and 59 points. I think this total is a little too low. Take the over.
10-03-23	Marlins v. Phillies UNDER 7.5		1-4	Win	100	20 h 33 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Philadelphia Phillies start Zack Wheeler in this Wild Card contest. Wheeler has a great 2.78 ERA and a 0.73 WHIP in six career postseason starts. He is a very consistent pitcher who has thrown his best late in the season on an annual basis. Miami's offense is much better against lefties than righties, and this is a tough matchup for them. Jesus Luzardo has electric stuff. He can occasionally give up a big inning, but he enters this game in good form. Luzardo has a 2.61 ERA and a 2.34 FIP in his last seven starts of the season. The Marlins lineup has a .246 average and .300 wOBA against Wheeler in 153 plate appearances. The Phillies lineup has only a .211 average and a ..271 wOBA against Luzardo in 83 plate appearances. Stu Scheurwater is the umpire here and the under is 112-89 in his career behind home plate. He had a strikeout/walk ratio of above 3 (very high) this season. He is a net positive for the under. Take the under.
10-01-23	Bengals v. Titans UNDER 41		3-27	Win	100	10 h 58 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Bengals and Titans have played twice in the last couple seasons. The final scores of those two games were 19-16 (in overtime) and 20-16. This total is set low for a reason. Joe Burrow is a great quarterback when healthy. He is clearly not healthy right now. He's a battler and he'll do his best to help his team win, but it is tough for him to throw the ball down the field right now. The Bengals offense has a much harder time breaking big gainers in its current state. Cincinnati's offensive line isn't very good still, and the Titans have been shutting down the run game all year. Joe Mixon isn't likely to be very efficient here. The Bengals defensive line dominated the Rams offensive line on Monday night. The Titans offensive line is a major weakness. I think Cincinnati will get in the backfield early and often here. Tennessee wants to turn every game into a low scoring rock right. The Bengals are far more prone to that kind of game with Burrow playing severely hampered. Both teams have played at a slower than average pace this year as well. Take the under.
09-30-23	Texas State v. Southern Miss OVER 59		50-36	Win	100	28 h 52 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Texas State Bobcats are a team I circled in the preseason that I wanted to bet a lot of overs on. GJ Kinne has completely changed the way this team plays. They brought in multiple good QB transfers. Texas State is 15th in tempo in the country. They will continually play as fast as possible. The Bobcats are very explosive on offense too. They already have 31 plays of 20 yards or more which is sixth most in the country. The Southern Miss defense was good in the past, but they are no longer good. Southern Miss lost star defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong to Florida, and they definitely miss him. The Golden Eagles just gave up 44 points to lowly Arkansas State. Southern Miss is 131st out of 133 teams in the country in explosiveness allowed. I think they'll give up big gainers here. The Southern Miss offense is 42nd in explosiveness and Texas State's defense is 116th in explosiveness allowed. Southern Miss does have 7 plays of 30 yards or more this year. Their passing game is a bit better than it has been. This number has been knocked down to a point where I have to bet this one to go over the total. Take the over.
09-30-23	Miami-OH v. Kent State OVER 47.5		23-3	Loss	-109	86 h 11 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Miami Redhawks have a really good quarterback in Brett Gabbert. Gabbert is being very aggressive with throwing the ball downfield this year. Gabbert has one of the highest average of depth of targets in the country at 13.2 yards per pass attempt. Gabbert is a good decision maker and he gets rid of the ball pretty quickly. Rashad Amos has been a pretty good running back for the Redhawks this year as well. This team has been able to have more balance so far this year. Miami is 9th in explosiveness on offense, and I think they'll bust several big gainers in this game. Kent State is a really bad team. The Golden Flashes defense has already allowed 12 plays of 30 yards or more on the season. The Kent State offense has looked a little better in recent weeks. They are up against a Miami defense that isn't as good as they have been in recent years. The Redhawks are 108th in YPP allowed. I don't think Kent State will score a lot here, but I think they can score enough. Miami's offense should have their way and this total has dropped to a number far below average in college football. Take the over.
09-30-23	Virginia v. Boston College OVER 54.5		24-27	Loss	-110	109 h 6 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Boston College Eagles offense is definitely better than I expected with Thomas Castellanos doing a good job making some big plays from the quarterback position. Castellanos can sometimes come up with some miracle plays that are big hitters. Boston College has 16 plays of 20 yards or more in two games in the ACC (FSU and Louisville). The Boston College defense is worse than anyone could have expected. They are 127th in yards per play allowed this year. They are 132nd in opposing QBR allowed. They have already allowed 14 plays of 30 yards or more on the season. This secondary is really bad. Virginia's Anthony Colandrea is quite the experience. He's a youngster who can make some things happen and takes chances. He also is more than capable of throwing a pick six at any point because he tries to throw into spots that just aren't there. The Cavs are 20th in explosiveness on offense, and it is primarily thanks to him going downfield as often as possible. The Virginia defense is far worse than a year ago. The Cavs are 128th in success rate allowed on defense. Boston College is 13th in tempo on the season. I think this total is a few points too low. Take the over.
09-30-23	Florida v. Kentucky UNDER 45.5		14-33	Loss	-110	32 h 19 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Florida Gators travel to Lexington to take on the Kentucky Wildcats on Saturday. This has the makings of a game with very few possessions because of the pace both teams play at this season. Florida is 128th in tempo and Kentucky is 115th in tempo. Both teams are taking more than 30 seconds between snaps. With the new rules in college football this year, teams like these two are going to be able to eat up quite a bit of clock in each drive. Austin Armstrong is a fantastic defensive coordinator. The Florida Gators defense is much improved this year. Florida is second in the nation in success rate allowed. They are creating pressure on the quarterback and Devin Leary isn't particularly mobile. Kentucky's defense has been solid for several years in a row. The Wildcats offense looks better on paper than it is because they really haven't been tested by a single good defense yet. Last year when these two teams met the two offenses struggled badly. They put up 4.4 and 4.3 yards per play in that game. Florida is definitely better on defense this year, and the Gators are playing slower on offense. A hard fought low scoring game. Take the under.
09-30-23	UL-Lafayette v. Minnesota OVER 48.5		24-35	Win	100	21 h 23 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Minnesota Golden Gophers aren't the same team they were a year ago. Minnesota had a top 10 defense in the country last year. Minnesota has only played one good offense so far this year (N Carolina) and yet they are 86th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Minnesota is 128th in third down defense. The Golden Gophers defensive front is far weaker than it has been in recent years. Louisiana has a good offensive line and a mobile quarterback who can make some big plays. The Ragin' Cajuns are averaging 6.26 ypc on the season. They have scored 31 points or more in each of their games so far this season. The Louisiana defense has allowed 38 points to Buffalo and 38 points to Old Dominion. I think Minnesota's games are being totaled too low right now based on their past history. This Minnesota team has a new OC who is playing somewhat faster and the Golden Gophers defense is far weaker. Take the over.
09-29-23	Padres v. White Sox UNDER 8.5		3-2	Win	100	18 h 38 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Chicago White Sox offense has been terrible against right handed pitching all season. The White Sox are dead last in the majors in weighted on base average (.292) against right handed pitching this season. Chicago is trotting out a really weak lineup right now, and they are easily last in wOBA for the past 30 days overall as well (.281 wOBA). The San Diego Padres start Nick Martinez here. Martinez is at least an average right handed pitcher. He has been pitching well of late. I like his chances of slowing down the White Sox offense. Dylan Cease starts for the White Sox here. Cease still has elite stuff, but he has been inconsistent this year. Cease has been very good in his last three starts. He has a 1.96 ERA and a 2.00 FIP in his last three starts. Cease now faces a Padres team that won't make the playoffs and has been inconsistent all year offensively. The Padres have seen 7 of their last 8 games stay under this total. The White Sox have seen 8 of their last 10 games stay under this total. Take the under.
09-24-23	Bears v. Chiefs UNDER 48		10-41	Loss	-110	14 h 8 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Kansas City Chiefs defense is much improved. Many still think of KC as a team that has to win shootouts, but that is no longer true. The Chiefs are 10th in yards per play allowed so far this year. They have faced a good Detroit offense and that was without star Chris Jones. They then took on a talented Jacksonville offense and did a great job holding them to 271 yards and 9 points. The Chicago Bears are 26th in the NFL in yards per play. Justin Fields hasn't looked good at all, and the KC defensive line is likely to be far too much for this Bears offensive line. The Kansas City offense isn't quite clicking on all cylinders yet and they do still have some injuries. There is a very strong system that backs the under here. Andy Reid at home as a big favorite has been a great under bet. Why? Reid is well known for when his team gets the lead by margin he takes his foot off the gas and doesn't use his best plays. Reid's teams at home favored by 7.5 points or more- the under is a whopping 39-16-3 since 2004. The average margin of is nearly 6 points to the under. In this situation when it is a non-divisional game the under is 28-9 in the last 37. Take the under here.
09-24-23	Broncos v. Dolphins OVER 48		20-70	Win	100	44 h 26 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Miami Dolphins have been the best offense in the NFL so far, and it hasn't been close. Miami is averaging a whopping 7.3 yards per play on the season. They put up 6.4 YPP on a strong New England defense. The Denver defense has regressed in a big way this year. Denver also will be without safety Justin Simmons who is a key loss against Tua and this Miami passing attack. Jaylen Waddle is questionable here. He did practice on Friday which is a good sign. It's a big bonus if he can play in this one. The Denver offense has been tremendous early in games with their scripted drives. Payton is clearly a big help to Russell Wilson and this offense in general. Denver has more big play ability, and they have picked up their tempo. I don't think the books have adjusted Denver enough based on their improvement on offense and decline on defense. Take the over.
09-24-23	Falcons v. Lions OVER 46		6-20	Loss	-105	34 h 14 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Detroit Lions have been a tremendous over team on their home turf of late. Jared Goff is a quarterback who is hurt by poor weather conditions more than most in the NFL. Goff has no concerns to worry about on the fast track at Ford Field. Goff also has a really nice cast around him now in Detroit. St. Brown is expected to play in this one and he is an elite WR. I like Gibbs getting most of the carries in the backfield here, because I view him as the more dynamic running back for the Lions. Laporta is fitting in nicely at tight end too. The Atlanta Falcons have a superstar in the backfield now in Bijan Robinson. He is a game breaker and I expect him to have a big game against a Lions defense that is below average against the run. The Falcons have enough play makers on offense now to be a problem. Ridder is slowly getting better at QB. A low total considering the Lions on the fast track. Neither defense is elite and I'll side with the over. Take the over here.
09-23-23	Akron v. Indiana UNDER 46		27-29	Loss	-110	126 h 6 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Indiana Hoosiers have wisely chosen to play a completely different way this season. Indiana is no longer playing as fast as possible. They are trying to run the football and play at a slower tempo. Tom Allen knows his team needs lower scoring games. Indiana ranks 109th out of 133 teams in the country in pace of play this season. Akron is 119th in tempo so far this year. They have been behind in every game too, so they have been unwilling to pick up the tempo even when they are playing from behind. Irons has been very bad at quarterback for Akron, and Undercuffler has been getting most of the snaps. He isn't good either. Akron has absolutely no ground game. They are averaging 1.63 yards per carry on the season. The Zips defense has been better than expected. Akron is allowing only 3.09 ypc on the season thus far. These two teams are 101st and 126th in explosiveness on offense. With a slow pace and the lack of explosive plays, I think this will be a lower scoring game. Take the under.
09-23-23	Duke v. Connecticut UNDER 45.5		41-7	Loss	-114	69 h 34 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The UConn Huskies were excited about Joe Fagnano starting as their quarterback for this season. He didn't get to play for long before he was injured. Fagnano is now out for the season. Roberson is back as the Huskies signal caller, and we have a lot of history on him. Roberson isn't very good and the team doesn't take many deep shots with him under center. UConn becomes very one dimensional on offense. The Huskies offense has been really weak this year. They are 124th in offensive success rate. Duke's defense ranks 4th in explosiveness allowed. The Blue Devils are built to not allow big plays. It is hard to imagine UConn putting together long scoring drives against anyone, and Duke is better defensively than most of UConn's opponents. The UConn Huskies defense is 23rd in explosiveness allowed. Duke is good on offense, but they are run heavy and do play at a slow pace. The weather here should be an issue. The average of four forecasts now calls for winds of about 15-18 mph and 1.5 to 2 inches of rain during the day. This should make both teams even more conservative on offense. Take the under.
09-23-23	Miami-FL v. Temple UNDER 49.5		41-7	Win	100	68 h 46 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The primary reason for this selection is the weather. Through the years college football games that are windy and rainy have been great to under bettors. Of course there can be a wide range of results, but on the whole it is a clear net positive for lower scoring games. Wind is the most important, but adding in rain to the wind makes it that much harder for the offenses. The average of four forecasts here calls for winds of about 21 or 22 mph. There should be sustained rain throughout this game as well. There are gusts of 30 or 35 in the forecast too. In this game, we have a Miami team that ranks 127th in the nation in pace. The Hurricanes have shown they are more than willing to slow the game down and let the clock run with the new rules implemented this year in college football. Temple is a very poor rushing team. If they can't have Warner throwing it around this offense just isn't very good at all. Both of these defenses have been pretty good this season. They should have an advantage in these conditions. Take the under.
09-23-23	Boston College v. Louisville OVER 54		28-56	Win	100	50 h 32 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Boston College defense has been awful this year. The Eagles allowed 7.3 YPP against Holy Cross a couple weeks ago. Last week Florida State put up 31 points on them with Jordan Travis banged up. It was also very windy in last week's contest. Boston College is playing very quickly. They rank 25th in the nation in tempo. The Eagles seem to have found a pretty good quarterback option in Castellanos. He has big play ability but can also turn it over. The Eagles putting up 29 points in the wind against FSU last week was a big step forward for the offense. Louisville's offense should be good with Jeff Brohm leading the way and Plummer at quarterback. The Cardinals are 10th in the nation at 7.44 YPP on offense thus far. Louisville wants to play quickly too. Louisville has quick strike ability in the passing game, and the BC secondary is a major weakness. The weather report for this one looks good. Take the over.
09-22-23	Wisconsin v. Purdue OVER 53		38-17	Win	100	67 h 47 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Purdue Boilermakers defense has disappointed so far this year. Their secondary isn't very good, and Purdue has been torched by the big play. The Boilermakers have allowed 22 plays of 20 yards or more. They have played Fresno State, Va Tech (terrible offensively), and Syracuse. Wisconsin has the most offensive talent of the teams Purdue has faced this year. The Badgers offense hasn't been great this year, but I expect improvement under Longo. Mordecai is an above average quarterback. With two star running backs who are also good pass catchers, Wisconsin has too many weapons for this Purdue defense. The Wisconsin defense is way down from a year ago. Wisconsin is 88th in success rate allowed so far this year. The Badgers secondary is down the most. Hudson Card and OC Graham Harrell should be able to move the ball and score on this Badgers defense. Wisconsin gave up 455 yards to GA Southern last week. If Davis Brin hadn't thrown all kinds of red zone interceptions, GA Southern would have scored a bunch of points in that one. These two are 40th and 42nd in tempo in the country. I think this total is a few points too low. Take the over.
09-16-23	Akron v. Kentucky UNDER 50		3-35	Win	100	41 h 45 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Akron Zips offense is in really bad shape. DJ Irons has played terribly and the team has no rushing attack. Akron just ran for a grand total of 4 yards against Morgan State last weekend! Akron needed a fluke defensive touchdown in the final seconds to win 24-21 over Morgan State last week. The Zips have had 279 and 270 yards of offense against Temple and Morgan State. Now, they go against a good SEC defense. I don't know if Akron can top 10 points here. Kentucky's offense hasn't been nearly as good as expected so far this year. Devin Leary has struggled and the offense has lacked explosive plays. The Wildcats only put up 28 points against Eastern Kentucky last weekend. These two teams both play very slowly. Two bottom 25 tempo teams with the new clock rules and Kentucky should have a large lead they are looking to sit on late in the game here. I think this total is a few points too high. Take the under.
09-16-23	UL-Lafayette v. UAB OVER 57.5		41-21	Win	100	124 h 42 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The UAB Blazers are a completely different team this year under Trent Dilfer. He has sped the team up drastically, and they are airing it out a lot on early downs. Overall, UAB has passed on 59% of their offensive plays, which is the 10th highest rate in the nation. UAB's offensive line isn't very good, but the Louisiana pass rush is weak. The Ragin' Cajuns secondary has allowed too many big plays as well. I think Jacob Zeno and company could hit several big plays on them throughout this game. Louisiana put up 38 on Northwestern State and 31 points on Old Dominion. The Ragin' Cajuns have veteran quarterbacks and a solid offensive line. Louisiana would have even more points this year were it not for poor red zone offense. They have two turnovers inside the 20 yard line already and have TD's on just 3 of 7 trips into the red zone. That should regress positively over time. The UAB defense was once a big strength, but they just allowed 49 points to GA Southern last week. This total is a few points lower than I made. Both of these teams are quite a bit different from last year and the oddsmakers often have a hard time adjusting on these teams. Take the over.
09-16-23	Tulane v. Southern Miss UNDER 50.5		21-3	Win	100	100 h 6 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Tulane Green Wave were not the same offense without Michael Pratt last week. Pratt has a knee injury and missed their 37-20 loss against Ole Miss. Pratt is still listed as questionable for this coming weekend, but there are signs he would either miss this coming weekend or be playing at far less than 100%. Pratt is key to the team without Tyjae Spears at running back like they had last year. Tulane only averaged 4.2 YPP against Ole Miss last weekend. Southern Miss was crushed by Florida State, but the Seminoles offense is going to make a lot of defenses look bad this year. Southern Miss is an above average defense. The Golden Eagles offensively are extremely reliant on Frank Gore Jr. in the running game. They simply cannot throw it well enough to keep defenses honest. Tulane's defense is led by new DC Shiel Wood who is a defensive mastermind. The front seven on defense has been stuffing the run extremely well for Tulane. I think they'll make Southern Miss throw it on them, and the Golden Eagles likely can't do that. Take the under here.
09-16-23	Wake Forest v. Old Dominion OVER 59.5		27-24	Loss	-110	132 h 20 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Old Dominion Monarchs got a new offensive coordinator in the offseason. The former Fordham OC had record setting offenses that played lightning fast in FCS. Old Dominion is already moving very quickly so far this season. The Monarchs are 20th in tempo out of 133 teams. Old Dominion is also getting pretty good quarterback play from Wilson, the QB who was formerly at Fordham and is playing in the same offensive system now. The Monarchs put up 38 points against Louisiana last weekend. Old Dominion's defense is still very weak. They allowed 31 points against Louisiana, and they allowed 36 against a weak Virginia Tech Hokies offense too. Wake Forest always prefers to play fast on offense. They have scored 37 and 36 points in their first two games. The Demon Deacons have too much talent at the wide receiver spot for the ODU secondary to handle. The Demon Deacons defense gave up 6.7 yards per play against Vanderbilt. Two fast paced teams and I believe this one gets past the total. Take the over.
09-14-23	Diamondbacks v. Mets UNDER 7.5		1-11	Loss	-105	16 h 36 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Kelly vs. Senga is a sneaky good pitching matchup here. Senga has a 2.52 ERA at home this year. Senga has a 2.72 ERA in his last 10 starts. He has allowed only 4 home runs in those 10 starts. Senga does a good job keeping traffic off the bases. Kelly has been fantastic in three of his last four starts. He has a 3.28 ERA and a 1.84 FIP in those four starts. Kelly's one poor start during that time was against the LA Dodgers. The Dodgers offense makes a lot of pitchers look bad. Bill Miller is the home plate umpire in this one. Miller is the most consistent under umpire in the majors. His strikes called percentage this year is at a ridiculously high 66.22%. His strikeout/walk ratio is at an almost unheard of 3.80. Take the under in this one.
09-10-23	Eagles v. Patriots UNDER 45		25-20	Push	0	61 h 23 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Philadelphia Eagles travel to New England to take on the Patriots on Sunday. Philadelphia is coming off a heartbreaking loss in the Super Bowl. New England's defense was still excellent last year, but their offense wasn't good. I don't see much to make me think the Patriots offense has gotten much better this year either. New England still doesn't have a good quarterback, and they are still short on weapons on the outside as well. Philadelphia is loaded defensively, and the Eagles defensive line is going to cause major problems for the Patriots in this one. Bill Belichick is a defensive minded coach, and his defenses have been very ready for the start of the season the last few years. The under is a perfect 5-0 in the Patriots last 5 season openers. The average margin of those unders is a whopping 11 points. I think they'll have a good game plan for this one too. There is a little rain in the forecast here with a slight wind too. Take the under.
09-09-23	Auburn v. California OVER 54		14-10	Loss	-110	71 h 53 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Auburn Tigers offense is clearly going to be better this year. Peyton Thorne is at least a decent quarterback (not great) and Hugh Freeze is a terrific offensive mind. Auburn has very good running back depth, and the talent in the backfield is excellent. Cal's offense looks completely different this year. Jake Spavital is the new OC and he has this team running at a very fast tempo. Cal was top 35 in the country in tempo in week one and that is even with them winning 58-21 and slowing things down late in the game. This is a new look offense that will take some shots downfield, but they will also run the ball very well. Cal's Jaydn Ott is a star running back. Auburn allowed more than 5 yards per carry in the SEC last year. They allowed 5.15 ypc last week against UMass in their win. Ott is coming off a game where he averaged 9.4 ypc. He should break some big ones here. The Cal defense is much weaker on the defensive line than they have been in past years. They generate very little pass rush. They aren't very good at stuffing things in the middle. Auburn's run game should have success here. Auburn will want to play relatively quickly with Freeze. Cal is going to play fast. The number here has gotten too low. This isn't the same Cal team from the last few years. Take the over.
09-09-23	Texas v. Alabama UNDER 56.5		34-24	Loss	-110	124 h 15 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Alabama Crimson Tide should play quite a bit differently this year than they did a year ago. They no longer have star quarterback Bryce Young who is now an NFL starter. The Crimson Tide should run the football a lot more than they did in the past. I also expect them to play at a slower pace. A team that runs the ball a lot and plays at a slow pace is a team that could have quite a few less possessions under the new rule with the clock running after first downs other than the last two minutes of the half. I think Alabama is one of those teams. The Crimson Tide defense is excellent. In fact, I think the Alabama defense will be quite a bit better than a year ago. Texas is a really good team overall. I see very few weaknesses on the Longhorns team. I do think they will load up the box and do a solid job limiting explosive runs by Alabama here. Quinn Ewers has still been inaccurate on deeper throws, and the Alabama secondary is a strong unit led by McKinstry. I expect both defenses to be well prepared for this huge game in Tuscaloosa. I'll take the under here.
09-09-23	Middle Tennessee State v. Missouri UNDER 51.5		19-23	Win	100	124 h 20 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The MTSU Blue Raiders lost a ton on offense from last year. The Blue Raiders have a new quarterback who isn't very good, and an offensive line that will struggle against quality defensive fronts all season. MTSU was able to gain only 3.5 yards per play against Alabama. I'm not suggesting Missouri has a defense as good as Alabama, but the Tigers are very solid defensively. Missouri has some very good run stuffing defensive tackles. The Tigers should be able to do a great job against the MTSU run game. Missouri's offense isn't a big play offense, and they don't play at a very quick tempo. Missouri had only 3 plays of 20 yards or more against FCS team South Dakota in week one. The MTSU defense is good led by a strong defensive line. MTSU played at an extremely slow tempo against Alabama even though they were down big the entire game. I expect the Blue Raiders to keep that tempo slow in this one. Missouri put up 28 points in the first half against S Dakota, but only scored 7 in the second. The Tigers have been a team that has let up when up big in the second half in the past. Take the under here.
09-09-23	Marshall v. East Carolina UNDER 46		31-13	Win	100	98 h 35 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Marshall Thundering Herd defense has been excellent the last few seasons, and I expect it to continue to be that way with Huff as their head coach. Marshall has a really good defensive line that is especially good at stuffing the run. East Carolina is without Holton Ahlers who started at QB for four years for the Pirates, and there is a significant drop off to anyone they put under center this season. I expect East Carolina to play it safe with their offensive game plan. The single biggest strength of the entire East Carolina team is their run defense. Marshall wants to run the ball with Rasheen Ali, but I expect East Carolina to make it more difficult for them than most teams will be able to. Marshall's Cam Fancher isn't a guy I trust to make big plays. Fancher can scramble a bit, but he doesn't take many shots downfield. He is a dink and dunk type of quarterback. The new clock rules should matter more in a game like this where both teams lack big playmakers on offense, and they want to run the football a lot. Take the under here.
09-06-23	Astros v. Rangers OVER 8.5		12-3	Win	100	18 h 49 m	Show
3 Star Play Over Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer are still both good pitchers, but both of them are certainly past their prime. This isn't the pitching matchup that it would have been a few years ago. Justin Verlander has a 3.34 ERA and a 4.04 FIP on the season. Max Scherzer has a 3.55 ERA and a 4.14 FIP. These two offenses are both top five in the majors in all major categories for the year. Houston has been on fire offensively of late. They have scored 27 runs in the first two games of this series. Both bullpens have been shaky of late, and their depth isn't what it was earlier in the season. There is a very real chance for big innings late here even if the starters pitch well. Mark Wegner is the home plate umpire here. He is one of the best over umpires in baseball. Wegner consistently has a low strikes called percentage and a low strikeout/walk ratio. He can really frustrate pitchers and help the hitter. Take the over here.
09-03-23	Oregon State v. San Jose State OVER 55		42-17	Win	100	97 h 3 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The San Jose State Spartans played a quick tempo last week against USC, and they put up 6.0 yards per play. While USC isn't a great defensive team, for the Spartans to put up those kind of numbers and have success offensively even in a neutral game state in the first half was impressive. Oregon State's offensive line is one of the best in the nation. Both Fenwick and Martinez are excellent running backs who are going to put up some big numbers this year. San Jose State's defensive line lost a ton of talent from last year. The Spartans are going to be much weaker on defense this season. DJ Uuiagalelei adds a dimension to the Oregon State offense too. Brian Lindgren is a great offensive coordinator and I like him to have a good plan set for this game. Oregon State's defense lost a lot from the secondary, and Speights is a big loss at linebacker as well. The Beavers are still decent defensively, but there is a clear drop off. San Jose State will push pace and hit some big plays here. Oregon State should consistently move the ball and put up a pretty big number here. Take the over in this one.
09-02-23	West Virginia v. Penn State UNDER 51.5		15-38	Loss	-105	150 h 27 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Penn State Nittany Lions have a fantastic defense. I think Penn State has the most talented defense in the Big Ten, and that is saying a lot with the talent Michigan and Ohio State have on defense. Penn State has the best secondary in the nation. The Nittany Lions have great linebackers as always, and their defensive line is elite at stopping the run. West Virginia has a new offensive coordinator in Chad Scott. It has been made clear in the offseason that the goal of this West Virginia new offense is to run the football and play with a much slower tempo. They will be helped in that regard by a pretty good offensive line and the new clock rules which will help them hold onto the football for longer. I am skeptical that they'll be able to score very many points here though against this excellent Nittany Lions defense. The Penn State offense has a new quarterback in Allar. I think he will be good in time, but the first game it wouldn't surprise me if they are a bit more cautious than normal. Penn State has good running backs and I think they'll run it plenty here. West Virginia's defense is better against the run than against the pass. Take the under here.
09-02-23	Texas State v. Baylor OVER 57.5		42-31	Win	100	341 h 15 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Texas State Bobcats are going to have a whole new look this year. G.J. Kinne is their new head coach this season. He comes over from Incarnate Word where his teams were prolific offensively. Incarnate Word scored 55 points or more in seven of their games last year. Kinne is terrific at working with quarterbacks, and Texas State has an improved quarterback room this year with Hornsby and Finley. Kinne has been talking about ever since getting hired how much he wants the team to push the tempo of the game. All of their practices have emphasized playing as fast as they can. I expect them to be moving at a very quick pace here in game one. Baylor's offense should be too much for a weak Texas State defense. The defensive line and linebackers are both badly outmanned here. Texas State is going to struggle on defense even in the Sun Belt, and Baylor should be able to put up a big number on them in this one. The Baylor defense wasn't elite last year, and on paper they are less talented this year. Baylor is weak in the secondary and Texas State will look to go vertical quite a bit this year. I won't be surprised if Texas State hits some big gainers on Baylor here. This number has been pulled down because of the new rules, but I think the pace will be very quick here and I like the value on this one. Take the over.
09-02-23	California v. North Texas OVER 55.5		58-21	Win	100	280 h 16 m	Show
3 Star Play Over Both of these teams have new offensive coordinators. Both coordinators are expected to push the pace. Cal has the same head coach, but Justin Wilcox is on the hot seat and he decided he needed to switch things up and get rid of the antiquated offense. Jake Spavital was brought in to completely change things up on offense. Cal will play much quicker and look to take more shots down the field. The team upgraded at both wide receiver and tight end in the offseason. We don't know who will be the starting quarterback, but I think they have three pretty decent options. North Texas got Chandler Rogers to transfer in from UL Monroe. He may start or it could be Jace Ruder or possibly even Stone Earle. The Mean Green have three guys who are capable. Eric Morris was hired as the new head coach this year, and Morris will call the plays here. In the scrimmages this team has played significantly faster and they have thrown the ball much more. The Mean Green defense switched to a 3-3-5, but I don't like their secondary. Running a 3-3-5 with a weak secondary can lead to a lot of big plays given up. Cal's defense has good linebackers, but overall they aren't nearly as strong on defense as they were a few years ago. This one has been bet down below the key number of 56, and I'm going to side with the over. I expect the tempo to stay very quick in this one. Take the over.
09-01-23	Braves v. Dodgers OVER 8		6-3	Win	100	9 h 11 m	Show
3 Star Play Over This is a meeting of the number one and number two offenses in baseball for the season based on weighted on base average (wOBA). This is a low total considering how good both of these offenses are and how consistently they have performed. Max Fried is a good pitcher, but he'll be up against a Dodgers lineup that has been crushing lefties in the last month. Fried has five starts back from injury and his ERA is 3.58. In four of those five games he has faced a weak offense. Julio Urias has a 4.41 ERA and a 4.43 FIP this season. The Braves are easily first in the majors against left handed pitching. Atlanta is very good against righties too, but they are even better against lefties. Both lineups are deep and these pitchers should have to work with a lot of runners on base here. Take the over.
09-01-23	Central Michigan v. Michigan State UNDER 47		7-31	Win	100	101 h 51 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Michigan State Spartans host the Central Michigan Chippewas on Friday night. Michigan State's defense is unique because they are very strong against the run, but terrible in the secondary. That makes this a good matchup for the defense. Central Michigan has one of the worst passing attacks in the country. The Chippewas will want to run it, but I think the Spartans defensive front will be too strong. Central Michigan's offense should be one of the worst in the MAC this year, but their defense is above average. They have a lot of veteran in the front seven on defense. Michigan State also has very little passing game, and the Spartans are going to want to run the football a lot. With the new clock rules- a game between two teams looking to run the football a lot will really move much quicker. Take the under here.
08-30-23	Nationals v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5		0-7	Loss	-114	14 h 5 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Washington Nationals start Patrick Corbin here. Corbin isn't a good left handed pitcher anymore. He is prone to both the long ball and being quite wild. The Toronto Blue Jays are 7th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. It is a tough matchup for Corbin. The Blue Jays scoring outputs have been relatively low in the last 14 days, but their batting average on balls in play has been an abysmal .244. That will regress positively toward the mean. Corbin is giving up a ton of hard contact too. Chris Bassitt is a middle of the road type pitcher. Bassitt has allowed 4 runs in three of his last five starts. The Nationals have been a feisty bunch here of late, and Abrams and Thomas are tough at the top of the order. This total is set quite low for a game with a poor lefty against a strong lineup. Washington's bullpen has the single worst FIP in all of baseball for the season too. Take the over.
08-28-23	Astros v. Red Sox OVER 9.5		13-5	Win	100	19 h 35 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox meet in Boston on Monday. These two teams just met in Houston this past week. The four game series saw games with combined totals of 13, 10, 12, and 18 runs. Houston and Boston both rank in the top nine in baseball in weighted on base average in the last 14 and last 30 days. These two offenses have been rolling of late. Houston is averaging 7 runs per game in their last 7 contests. The Red Sox have scored six runs or more in six of their last ten games, and they haven't scored less than three runs in any of those games. Cristian Javier has been terrible of late. Javier has a 6.25 ERA and a 6.12 FIP in his last eight starts. The team has provided him huge run support in many of these recent games. Chris Sale has come back from injury and been shaky. Sale isn't pitching deep into games, and I don't trust the Boston bullpen either. Both offenses should get plenty of scoring chances here. Take the over.
08-26-23	Florida International v. Louisiana Tech OVER 57		17-22	Loss	-110	31 h 46 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs have a very talented offense. Hank Bachmeier transferred in from Boise State, and he gives this team a big upgrade at quarterback. Last year, FIU beat LA Tech in double overtime 42-34. LA Tech had a third and fourth string quarterback under center for that game. This time around LA Tech has a very solid quarterback under center. He is also surrounded by very good skill position weapons. Smoke Harris is a star on the outside and on kick returns. The offensive line returns intact and should be improved. FIU's defense is overmatched in this one. The LA Tech defense allowed 6.12 yards per carry last year. That is just insane. FIU isn't that good offensively, but they do return their quarterback in James. The other thing that helps in a game like this for the over is FIU's willingness to take shots down the field and to go for it on 4th down. That is a clear positive for the over. The weather here is interesting. It is going to be very hot and humid on Saturday in Ruston. This game starting at night makes it a bit cooler, but gametime temperature is set to be in the upper 80's with high humidity as well. All trends show that heat has been a clear net positive for more scoring in college football in the last decade. Take the over.
08-20-23	White Sox v. Rockies OVER 11.5		10-5	Win	100	12 h 47 m	Show
3 Star Play Over Chris Flexen is in terrible form this year. Flexen has a 7.74 ERA and a 7.01 FIP. He is walking 4.09 batters per nine innings. He is giving up a ridiculous 2.63 home runs per nine innings on the season thus far. Walking a bunch of guys and giving up hard contact and home runs is a bad combination at Coors Field. Dylan Cease is certainly capable of pitching very well. Cease has been up and down in a big way this year. The Rockies have scored 25 runs in the first two games of this series, and they hit pretty well at home. The weather in this one calls for 98 degrees and winds blowing out to left field at about 12 mph. Overs are 115-82 (58.4%) at Coors Field with the wind blowing out to left field. A temperature near 100 degrees is a positive for run scoring as well. Take the over.
08-19-23	Blue Jays v. Reds UNDER 10		4-3	Win	100	16 h 33 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Cincinnati Reds offense hasn't been what it was before the All Star break. Cincinnati was great offensively in June and early July. Since the All Star break, the Reds are 26th in the majors in weighted on base average. The Reds are striking out at the 4th highest rate in the majors during that time. Chris Bassitt is a decent pitcher who has a 3.63 ERA and a 3.91 FIP in his last ten starts. Brandon Williamson starts for the Reds here. Williamson has a 3.65 ERA and a 3.99 FIP in his last ten starts. He has actually been better at Great American Ballpark than he has away from home. This is a hitters park, but the temperatures here aren't as hot as normal for this time of the year. The temperature will be in the upper 70's with a slight breeze in from center field for much of the game. Phil Cuzzi is the home plate umpire. The under 16-5 in his 21 games behind home plate this year. His strikeout/walk rate over the last few years shows he is a great strike caller. Take the under.
08-15-23	Yankees v. Braves OVER 11		0-5	Loss	-100	19 h 34 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Atlanta Braves offense is setting records for the season, and they are absolutely on fire of late. Atlanta has scored six runs or more in five straight games. They have scored six runs or more in 11 of their last 13 games. In the other two games they scored 4 and 5 runs. The production has been absolutely amazing. This is a deep lineup that is a pitcher's nightmare. Luis Severino has an 8.06 ERA and a 6.64 FIP on the season. Severino has been even worse of late allowing 18 runs in his last 9 innings. Now, he goes to face the best offense in the majors. Bryce Elder started the season very well, but the wheels have been coming off of late. Elder has a 7.94 ERA and a 6.20 FIP in his last six starts. He has walked 12 and only struck out 17 during that time. The Yankees offense has warmed up quite a bit in recent weeks. The total here is very high, but I don't think it is quite high enough. Take the over.
08-14-23	Mariners v. Royals UNDER 9		6-7	Loss	-117	20 h 8 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Seattle goes to Kansas City to take on the Royals on Monday night. Brady Singer started the year out pitching very poorly, but the young right hander has really turned it around of late for the Royals. Singer has a 5.05 ERA for the year and 4.00 FIP. In his last five starts since the All Star break, Singer has a 2.94 ERA and a 3.29 FIP. He has just 5 walks and 31 strikeouts in those five starts. Logan Gilbert is a really solid starter. Gilbert has a 2.58 ERA in his last seven starts. He has only five walks during that time. He is allowing less than one home run per nine innings as well. Two underrated starting pitchers and a total at the key number of nine here. I like this one to stay under the posted total. Take the under.
08-13-23	Rangers v. Giants UNDER 8		2-3	Win	100	13 h 47 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The San Francisco Giants offense ranks 29th out of 30 in baseball in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. The Giants are a bit banged up right now, and the offense is really struggling badly. Dane Dunning is a decent starting pitcher who flies under the radar often. Dunning has a 3.21 ERA and a 4.06 FIP on the season. Logan Webb is a good starter who has great splits when pitching at home in his pitcher friendly home park. Webb has a 2.23 ERA at home this year and a .262 wOBA allowed. Webb has a 2.81 career ERA when pitching in San Francisco. Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire here. He has a very long history of being an under umpire. His strikes called percentages are consistently among the highest in the league. He's a top three under umpire. Take the under.
08-12-23	Angels v. Astros OVER 9		3-11	Win	100	16 h 53 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Houston Astros offense is heating up as they have gotten healthy. Houston is averaging 7 runs per game in their last five contests. The Angels pitching staff has been really bad of late, and their already weak bullpen has been overused. Houston should be able to take advantage in this one with Tyler Anderson pitching. In 69 plate appearances, the Houston lineup has an amazing .480 weighted on base average against Anderson. JP France starts here for the Astros. France has been very fortunate so far this season. He has a 2.75 ERA but a 4.40 xERA and a 4.15 FIP. France is carrying an ultra high strand rate which can't be sustainable in the long run. The Angels still have a pretty good offense with a lot of pop. These two bullpens rank second and third worst in the majors in FIP in the last 30 days. The Angels have been very weak all year, and the Astros have been worse in the bullpen in recent weeks. Take the over here.
08-11-23	Braves v. Mets OVER 9.5		7-0	Loss	-115	7 h 11 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Atlanta Braves offense is in a different class from the rest of baseball. They have been extremely consistent on offense throughout the season. Atlanta has the perfect mixture of guys who get on base and big sluggers to knock them in. The Braves have seen 7 of their last 8 games get past this posted total. The New York Mets have seen five of their last nine games go above this posted total. Tylor Megill starts for the Mets here and he has a 5.45 ERA and a 6.27 xERA. Megill is a subpar pitcher who the Braves should get to quickly here. Charlie Morton has a 3.86 ERA and a 4.09 FIP. He clearly isn't the same pitcher he was a few years ago. Morton also has been bad against this Mets lineup. They have a .347 weighted on base average against him in 147 plate appearances. Take the over in this one.
08-09-23	Marlins v. Reds UNDER 10		5-4	Win	100	11 h 8 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Miami Marlins haven't been good against right handed pitching all year. Miami is 20th in weighted on base average against right handed pitching for the season. The Marlins have tailed off offensively in general over the last month. They sit at 23rd in the league in wOBA in the last 30 days. The Cincinnati Reds offense is 25th in wOBA in the last 30 days. The team is striking out at a very high rate. The youngsters of this team have been more inconsistent of late. The team is missing both Jake Fraley and Jonathan India who are injured. Johnny Cueto starts against his former team here. Graham Ashcraft starts for the Reds. Ashcraft has been pitching much better over his last six starts. For an August afternoon in Cincinnati, the weather isn't too hot. A temperature of 82 degrees for this one. Bill Miller is the home plate umpire here. He has the highest called strikes percentage of any umpire in the majors in the last 3 years (average). Miller is a big help to an under. Take the under.
08-07-23	Twins v. Tigers UNDER 8.5		9-3	Loss	-110	18 h 16 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Detroit Tigers offense is a bottom six or eight offense in baseball. Pablo Lopez is a far better than average right handed pitcher. Lopez has a great .196 weighted on base average allowed against the Tigers lineup. Lopez has been in good form coming into this one and the advanced metrics suggest he is due for positive regression as we move forward. Joey Wentz hasn't been very good this year, but the Minnesota Twins have been terrible against left handed pitching. In fact, Minnesota is second to last in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. Wentz has a solid .264 wOBA allowed in 49 plate appearances against the Twins. Both offenses in an unfavorable split here and there will be chances for the starters to take care of business. Seven of the last ten games between these two teams have stayed under this total. Take the under.
08-05-23	Rays v. Tigers UNDER 8		2-4	Win	100	11 h 18 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Tarik Skubal starts for the Tigers in this one. Skubal has a 4.57 ERA and a 2.22 xERA and a 1.33 FIP in five starts this year. Skubal has an extremely low left on base rate of just 50% and opponents have a .340 batting average on balls in play against him. Skubal is a talented starter who is due for positive regression. Skubal hasn't allowed a run at home this year, and he has a .126 wOBA allowed in 13 innings pitched at home on the season. Aaron Civale has faced this Tigers lineup a bunch of times. In the past, it has been as a member of the Cleveland Guardians. Civale now starts for the Tampa Bay Rays, and his past history against the Tigers is strong. Civale has allowed a wOBA of only .275 against the Tigers lineup in his career. In the last 30 days, Tampa Bay ranks 24th in the league in overall wOBA. The offense has been relatively cold. The Tigers offense ranks 27th in wOBA during that time. Take the under.
08-01-23	Mercury v. Fever UNDER 160.5		71-72	Win	100	16 h 37 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Phoenix Mercury will be without Brittany Griner for this one. Griner is their second most efficient offensive player and their leading scorer. She averages more than 18 points per game. The two times these two teams have played this season Griner has scored 29 and 22 points. Griner is just 10th in defensive efficiency on the Mercury team. NaLyssa Smith is out for this game for Indiana. She averages more than 15 points per game. The Fever are significant favorites here, but they haven't scored more than 83 points in regulation in any of their last seven games. The Mercury have scored 72 points or fewer in five of their last eight games. These two teams play at the slowest and second slowest pace in the entire WNBA. This game should be played in the halfcourt. Take the under.
07-30-23	Mariners v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5		4-0	Win	100	13 h 7 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Luis Castillo and Merrill Kelly have been very solid all year long. These are two right handed starting pitchers who often go deep into the game. Neither of these guys give opponents free passes very often. Castillo has been quite a bit better in the second half of the season in his career. Kelly has been very good in day games during his career. These two offenses have been very inconsistent this year. Both of them are prone to going through cold stretches. I see this as a tough matchup for both of them. It's a Sunday get away day game where sometimes we see a key bat or two out of the lineup. Take the under here.
07-28-23	Twins v. Royals OVER 9.5		5-8	Win	100	18 h 12 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Minnesota Twins offense has broke out of late. Minnesota Twins are third in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. The Twins have had several underachievers break out in the last couple weeks. The Kansas City Royals offense hasn't been very good, but the Royals bullpen has been the single worst bullpen in the majors in terms of SIERA in the last 30 days. This bullpen is overworked and they are struggling badly of late. Brady Singer has had a very disappointing season this year. He is giving up too much hard contact and has allowed too many big innings. The weather here is drastic too. A game time temperature of 98 degrees with winds of about 14 mph and gusts to 28 mph blowing out toward center field. In Kansas City, games with a temperature of 90 degrees or higher and winds blowing out at 6 mph or more are 32-14 in the last 46 contests. Take the over.
07-25-23	Mariners v. Twins UNDER 8		9-7	Loss	-105	18 h 39 m	Show
4 Star Play Under George Kirby has a 3.32 ERA at home in his career. Kirby has a 3.31 ERA on the road in his career. Kirby is averaging less than one walk per nine innings. No one in the majors has better control than Kirby. He also averages less than one home run per nine innings. He is a very solid young pitcher. Pablo Lopez has a 4.22 ERA and a 3.22 xERA and a 3.40 FIP. He is due for positive regression. Lopez is averaging 11.24 strikeouts per nine innings. He is a better pitcher than he has shown so far this season. Bill Miller is the home plate umpire here. He is my single favorite under umpire in the majors. He has a ridiculous 3.98 strikeout/walk ratio this year. The under is 8-2 in his games with a total of 8 or higher. He has a very good long term track record of a high called strike percentage. Take the under here.
07-23-23	Diamondbacks v. Reds OVER 11		3-7	Loss	-107	10 h 20 m	Show
3 Star Play on Over The Cincinnati Reds start Luke Weaver here. Weaver has been terrible all season long. Weaver has an ERA above 7 and his FIP is nearly 6. He has an ERA just north of 8 when pitching at Great American Ballpark. Here he is pitching at Great American Ballpark on a warm summer day where the ball should be flying well. Arizona is a very good lineup against right handed pitching, and I would expect them to get to Weaver early and often here. Jose Ruiz is expected to be the opener for a bullpen game for Arizona here. The DBacks bullpen isn't particularly deep either. Cincinnati's offense has woke up again in the last few games after a temporary slump. The Reds young lineup is a strong one and this is the second best hitters ballpark in the majors. Take the over here.
07-22-23	Blue Jays v. Mariners UNDER 7.5		8-9	Loss	-120	14 h 38 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Kevin Gausman has a 3.13 ERA and a stellar 1.29 FIP in his last four starts. He has 5 walks and 32 strikeouts in that four game span. Gausman has really pitched well this year, and he is throwing the best he has all year in his recent starts. Gausman has a 3.60 career ERA in day games vs. a 4.01 ERA in night games. Logan Gilbert has a 2.33 ERA and a 2.58 FIP in his last four starts overall. Gilbert has a 3.39 day games ERA compared to a 4.02 ERA in night games. This is a day game in Seattle, and it is a battle between two pitchers with elite stuff who have been putting it all together of late. Toronto has seen 5 of their last 9 games stay under this total. Seattle has seen 6 of their last 10 games stay under this low total. Take the under.
07-21-23	Orioles v. Rays UNDER 8		0-3	Win	100	17 h 15 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Tampa Bay Rays offense has cooled off drastically of late. Tampa Bay has only scored more than 4 runs twice in their last ten games. Tampa Bay ranks 23rd in weighted on base average in the majors in the last 30 days. They are up against a good young pitcher in Kyle Bradish. He has a 2.28 ERA and a 2.79 FIP in his last eight starts. Bradish has a 1.41 ERA in his last six starts. Zach Eflin has been really good this year for Tampa Bay. Eflin has been superb at home. He has a 2.34 ERA at home, and he has held opponents to a .240 wOBA at home as well. Eflin has zero walks in his last four starts compared to 21 strikeouts. The Orioles are a good offense, but they are better against lefties than righties. These are two good bullpens who have a good chance of pitching well late in the game too. Take the under.
07-18-23	Twins v. Mariners UNDER 7.5		10-3	Loss	-110	20 h 14 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Bailey Ober has been tremendous all season. He has been at his best when pitching on the road. Ober has a stellar .216 wOBA allowed and a 2.01 ERA on the road thus far this season. Even at this low total, 11 of his 14 games have stayed under this total (one went over solely because of extra innings too). Bryan Woo has been really good for the Mariners. Woo has an extremely high 11.16 strikeouts per nine innings rate. He has multiple put away pitches, and the Twins have been striking out at a pretty high clip. Both teams have deep and solid bullpens and they should be ready to go in this one. Muchlinski is a pretty good under umpire and Seattle is still a top five pitchers park in the majors. Take the under.
07-15-23	Astros v. Angels UNDER 8		12-13	Loss	-100	19 h 38 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Houston Astros are without both Jose Altuve and Michael Brantley. That's a significant hit to the lineup. The Los Angeles Angels are without Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon. That's also a huge hit to the lineup. Framber Valdez has been the best starter for the Astros this year. He's a very good lefty who can mix up his pitches well. Valdez has a stellar .267 wOBA against the Angels lineup. Reid Detmers had a bad outing in his last start, but that was against the LA Dodgers. The Dodgers make a lot of pitchers look bad. Before that game, Detmers had five straight starts with two runs or less allowed. Detmers has a very solid 3.78 FIP on the season. Detmers has pretty good numbers against most of the Astros hitters. Corey Blaser is the home plate umpire here, and he is a solid under umpire. The under is 42-26 in his last 68 games behind the plate. He has a strikes called percentage clearly high than the league average too. Take the under.
07-09-23	Mets v. Padres UNDER 8		2-6	Push	0	16 h 33 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The New York Mets dropped a 3-1 game to the Padres on Saturday night. On this final contest of the first half of the season, I like this game to stay low scoring as well. It's a pitching matchup of Max Scherzer vs. Joe Musgrove. Both of these guys have fantastic numbers in their respective careers against the opposing offense. Scherzer has allowed a very low weighted on base average (wOBA) of .242 in 204 plate appearances for this Padres lineup. Musgrove has a very good .282 wOBA allowed against this Mets lineup. Scherzer isn't what he was several years ago, but he still has great strikeout stuff and he has a history of pitching better in day games. Musgrove has been fantastic in his last eight starts. He has a 2.01 ERA and a 2.52 FIP in those games. Both offenses have been inconsistent and this is a tough matchup for them. Take the under.
07-08-23	Reds v. Brewers OVER 9.5		8-5	Win	100	14 h 0 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Cincinnati Reds are second in the majors in weighted on base average in the last month. This is an offense that is very hard to quiet on a consistent basis. Joey Votto has started producing nicely again of late. The youngsters are fantastic with De La Cruz, Steer, Friedl, and McClain really shining. Cincinnati is aggressive on the bases, and it has paid off most of the time. The Reds were quieted by Corbin Burnes last night, but Colin Rea doesn't have nearly the stuff Burnes does. Luke Weaver has been very weak this year. He's gotten great run support, but Weaver has been hit around hard. Weaver is in the 10th percentile in expected batting average allowed out of all pitchers in the majors. He is in the 18th percentile in strikeout percentage. He has an ERA above 12 in the first inning. The Reds bullpen has been overworked of late as well. Milwaukee has scored six runs or more in 7 of their last 8 games. Take the over here.
07-06-23	Reds v. Nationals OVER 9.5		5-4	Loss	-115	11 h 22 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The weather forecast calls for 91 degrees and a very slight breeze blowing out at Nationals Park on Thursday afternoon. The heat has really helped the over at this park. Nationals Park has seen 102 overs and 73 unders with temperatures of 85 degrees or higher. This one certainly fits that bill. Brandon Williamson has an ERA over 5 and an xERA over 6. He has had issues throwing strikes in the minors and he has given up the home run ball far too often in the majors. Mackenzie Gore has been sidelined with a finger injury. Gore is back for this game, and he faces a Reds offense that has been on fire. In the last 30 days, only one offense has been better than the Reds in weighted on base average (the Braves). Cincinnati's youngsters are hitting the ball really well. This has suddenly become a deep lineup that excels against lefties. Both pitchers have been very shaky and the conditions are prime for scoring. Manny Gonzalez is behind home plate and he is a solid over umpire. Take the over.
07-04-23	Rockies v. Astros OVER 9.5		1-4	Loss	-105	15 h 30 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Houston Astros offense has come alive in a big way of late. Houston has 63 runs in their last nine games (7 runs per game on average). They have scored 10 runs or more in three of their last six games. Houston is better against lefties and they face a lefty in Kyle Freeland in this game. Freeland has to go through several red hot right handed hitters who are at their best against southpaws. Brandon Bielak starts for the Astros here, and he hasn't been good. Bielak has a 4.37 ERA and a 5.67 FIP. He has allowed 10 runs in his last 9 and 2/3 innings pitched. The Astros bullpen is gassed right now, and Bielak isn't very likely to pitch deep into the game. The Rockies offense is bad against lefties, but they have been a top 12 offense against right handers. I expect both teams to get plenty of scoring chances. Take the over.
07-02-23	Diamondbacks v. Angels UNDER 8.5		2-5	Win	100	16 h 37 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Arizona Diamondbacks and LA Angels meet in LA on Sunday afternoon. Zac Gallen is clearly one of the best right handed starting pitchers in the majors. Gallen has been a bit inconsistent at times, but he has been really good in two of his last three starts. Gallen has a 3.02 ERA and a 2.74 FIP on the year. Reid Detmers is the guy who most people don't realize is coming a very solid starting pitcher. Detmers has a 1.05 ERA and a 2.58 FIP in his last four starts. Detmers is up against an Arizona lineup that has been far better against right handed pitching than lefties. Detmers is an up and coming good lefty. Doug Eddings is behind the plate for this one. Eddings is clearly a top two or three under umpire in baseball. He consistently has some of the very highest strikeout/walk ratios and strikes called percentages. He has those again this year and the under is 9-4 in his games behind the plate. Take the under.