*4 Star MLB Wednesday's BEST Bet* The Pittsburgh Pirates have been crushing left handed pitching this year. Only the Boston Red Sox have a higher weighted on base percentage against lefties than the Pirates. This Pirates team is full of underrated guys like Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco as well as Jung Ho Kang. Adam Conley has been pretty good this year, but the Pirates should pick up several runs in this one. 

The Miami Marlins are averaging 3.78 runs per game against right handed pitching. They are averaging 4.99 runs per game against lefties. They face a hittable lefty in Jon Niese here. Niese was better in his last start, but he hasn't been consistent this year. 

These two bullpens are both among the bottom seven bullpens in the majors. This number is too low. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Detroit Tigers have had the best offense in baseball in the past two weeks. This certainly doesn't surprise me, as it was only a matter of time until an offense like this was going to break out. 

Hector Santiago has had some regression coming his way for a long time, and it hit last game in Texas. Santiago is a streaky guy, and I'm not sure he'll be able to slow down this red hot Tigers lineup. 

Anibal Sanchez has been awful this year. Sanchez has allowed 4 runs or more in each of his last 5 starts and in 7 of his last 8 starts. His walk rate is way up this year, and opponents are squaring up the ball much more often on his pitches. Until Sanchez proves he is better than this, you have to look to fade him or take the over in his games.

The Angels offense has been much better in the past few weeks.

The over is 9-1 in Sanchez's 10 starts this year. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Jose Fernandez has rounded into form of late, and when he is pitching at his best, he is one of the best in the majors. While the Pirates offense has been very good of late, I'll be surprised if they get many against Fernandez.

Gerrit Cole hasn't been quite as good this year, but he has tremendous stuff. Cole is capable of shutting anyone down, and he has shown that in recent games. This Marlins offense is a mess right now with Yelich still getting back in the swing of things and Stanton out injured. 

I believe this has the makings of a pitcher's duel between two young very good pitchers. Look for a lot of quick innings in this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Philadelphia Phillies offense isn't very good, but they do have a very good young starter on the mound here in Aaron Nola. Nola is inducing a ton of swings and misses, and his stuff is elite. 

The Washington Nationals offense is great against lefties, but they are in the bottom half of the league in offensive production against right handed starters. 

Joe Ross has very good stuff as well, and this Phillies lineup has a tough time stringing together enough hits to score often on a guy with swing and miss stuff like Ross.

The Phillies bullpen isn't good, but it isn't as bad as expected. The Nationals bullpen is elite. 

The under is 3-0-1 in Ross' last 4 road starts. The under is 4-0-1 in his last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in the Phillies last 4. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 Tuesday games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two. A 23-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star Thunder/Warriors Game 7 MONEY* The Golden State Warriors proved very clutch in their Game 6 win. Golden State knocked down 21 three-pointers in that game, and that carried them through on the road in Oklahoma City. 

I had the under in that game and that cashed. I'm going with the under again here. The long-term trend is clear: elimination games in the NBA playoffs tend to mean a slower tempo and tighter defense. 

In Game 6, the game stayed well under despite the Warriors hot long range shooting. That's because the tempo was 4 possessions slower than the average of the first five games. That's a significant difference, and I have to think that continues here.

It's win or go home time for both teams. Take the under in this one. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* In Jeff Locke and Justin Nicolino, we have two very bad left handed starters in this one. 

Locke has been alright at home in his career, but away from home he is pure fade material. Locke had a 5.63 road ERA last year and a 6.15 ERA so far this year. In this one though, he is opposed by a guy who is likely a little worse than he is. Nicolino is a pitch to contact guy who gives up a lot of hard hit balls.

Miami is 8th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The Pirates are second in the majors in that same category. 

The Pirates bullpen has been a major weakness this year. The Marlins bullpen has been bad in the past couple weeks also.

The over is 19-7-4 in Locke's last 30 road starts. The over is 4-1 in Nicolino's last 5 home starts. The over is 7-2 in the Pirates last 9 vs. a lefty. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Jeff Samardzija is dialed in right now, and it's hard to imagine the Atlanta Braves lineup doing anything to change that. This Braves offense is one of the worst offenses in baseball. They have been particularly bad at home. 

The under is 6-0 in Samardzija's last 6 road starts. He's been throwing his fastball really well lately. His pitch location has been tremendous. The Giants bullpen has also been improved in recent weeks. 

Mike Foltynewicz is improving for the Braves. He has quality stuff, and he is slowly improving his control. The Giants offense did break out at Coors Field this weekend, but Turner Field is a pitcher's park.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres have played two games that went well over the total, but I think this one stays under. The roof will be closed at Chase Field for this one, and that's a big deal. The ball flies much better with the roof open. 

Drew Pomeranz has really come into his own this year. Pomeranz has improved his control and has added in an extra pitch. This guy was always highly touted, and this is the year he became the real deal. 

Archie Bradley has an ERA of just under 2 at Triple A this year, and he's getting a chance to prove he should be in the rotation. What better team to do it against than the San Diego Padres? They arguably have the weakest lineup in baseball. 

Bill Miller is behind the plate here, and that's the single biggest reason for this play. Miller is a terrific under umpire. He'll give both guys the corners a lot here. The under is 37-15-1 in Miller's last 53 Sunday games. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Pittsburgh Pirates are second in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The Texas Rangers are 9th in the majors in the same category. 

Francisco Liriano's numbers are much worse this year. His hard contact percentage has gone way up, and his velocity is down a bit. Liriano has a lot of control problems, and he has gotten himself in some big trouble when pitching on the road this year.

Martin Perez isn't a bad pitcher, but this Pittsburgh offense is excellent. Perez has benefited from some good fortune so far this year, and regression should hit soon for him. 

These two bullpens are both in the bottom five in the majors. Both have thrown a lot of innings of late also. I wouldn't trust Perez or Liriano to go deep in the game here, and I don't think the bullpens will be good in relief. 

The over is 7-1 in the Pirates last 8 vs. a lefty. The over is 4-0 in Texas' last 4 vs. a lefty. Take the over. 

*3 Star Warriors/Thunder MONEYMAKER* The public loves to bet the over, and in this one the over is getting about 80% of the public bets. Despite that, the line has held steady and even dropped one half of a point at some books. That's a good sign for the under here. 

Additionally, we have three referees who have more unders than overs so far this year. 

An angle I really like is the under is 41-19 in the last 60 NBA playoff potential elimination games in game six or game seven of a series. Why is this? Normally teams tighten up and the pace slows down a tick. The defense gets better because no one wants to go home. 

These teams can definitely score, but I'm counting on a few less free throws than last game, and 221 is a bunch of points. Take the under in this one. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Total of the Week* Noah Syndergaard has been the most dominant pitcher in baseball this year other than Clayton Kershaw. Syndergaard has absolutely devastating stuff, and his command has gotten much better in the past year. This guy has a tremendous upside.

Syndergaard faces a Los Angeles Dodgers lineup that is 26th in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching in the past month. Syndergaard is one of the best, if not the best, right-handed pitcher in baseball right now. I expect him to be great again. The Dodgers lineup has a .178 batting average against Syndergaard. 

Kenta Maeda is a pretty good pitcher as well. He isn't even close to Syndergaard, but this Mets offense is 23rd in wOBA against right handed pitchers in the past month, so I expect him to fare pretty well here as well.

Adam Hamari calls a bunch of strikes behind home plate, and he is a big positive for the under in this one. 

The under is 23-8 in the Dodgers last 31 after scoring 5 runs or more last game. The under is 7-3 in the Mets last 10 vs. a right handed starter. Take the under big. TOP Total of the Week

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Toronto Blue Jays put up 7 runs last night. This Toronto offense has underachieved all year, but I think they may be starting to break out. Toronto hits well at home, and they are up against Rick Porcello in this one.

Porcello has a 7.15 ERA when pitching in Toronto. In his last 14 innings pitched in Toronto, he has allowed 17 runs. Toronto should get to him in this one as well.

Marcus Stroman is a good pitcher, but this Boston offense is excellent. The Red Sox are at their best against right handed pitching. I expect them to get scoring chances against him and the Toronto bullpen which has been subpar of late.

A total of only 8.5 with these two teams is too low. Mike DiMuro is behind the plate also, and he is a very good over umpire.

The over is 4-0 in the Jays last 4 home games. The over is 3-0-2 in the Red Sox last 5 Saturday games. The over is 5-0 in DiMuro's last 5 behind home plate. A 12-0 angle. Take the over.  

*3 Star MLB Total Value* The Colorado Rockies hit the ball really well last night in Boston against Clay Buchholz and I think they can come home and score a lot on Matt Cain as well. Cain is one of the more extreme fly ball pitchers in the majors, and that's a big negative at Coors Field. Cain has pitched somewhat better of late, but I expect that to change tonight in Colorado.Cain has allowed 14 runs in 8 and 2/3 innings so far this year against Colorado. 

Tyler Chatwood has a career home ERA of 4.83. Chatwood has been pretty good on the road in his career, but he can't seem to figure out Coors Field just yet. The Giants have been on fire of late, but it has been almost completely their pitching staff that has them winning. I expect that to change in this series. This San Francisco offense is better than they have shown so far this year.

The over is 7-1-1 in Cain's last 9 road starts. The over is 4-1 in Cain's last 5 starts vs. the Rockies. Take the over. 

*4 Star Friday's BEST Bet* The San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks meet at Chase Field on Friday night. San Diego is dead last in weighted on base average against right handed pitching, but they are much better against left handed pitching. The Diamondbacks are the second ranked team in baseball in wOBA against lefties. Both teams will be up against a lefty in this one. 

Christian Friedrich has always been a guy that walks a bunch of guys, and that's trouble against this Diamondbacks lineup. The Padres bullpen isn't very good this year either, and I expect Arizona to put up plenty of runs here.

Robbie Ray has an ERA over 6 in his career with the roof open at Chase Field, and the roof is slated to be open on Friday night. The ball flies very well in Arizona with the roof open.

The over is 6-0 in the DBacks last 6 games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 following a loss. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more last game. A 15-0 trend. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Jon Niese has been bad all year long, and now he goes into one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball and has to face a Texas lineup that just broke out against the Angels. He'll also have to face 9 position players here instead of 8 with 1 pitcher. Niese is in a tough spot here.

Cole Hamels has a great ERA, but he has stranded 87% of his batters so far this year, and that can't continue for the season as a whole. He is a solid pitcher who isn't quite as dominant as he was a couple years ago. 

The Pirates and Rangers bullpens are both ranked in the bottom 5 of my bullpen rankings. The more these bullpens are in the game, the better it is for the over. Some thunderstorms are supposed to be in the area, which could make the starters leave earlier than normal.

Both teams are good against left handed pitching, and I think this gets past the posted total. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Wednesday's BEST Bet* The Tampa Bay Rays offense has been on fire of late, and I don't expect a visit from Justin Nicolino to cool them off. 

Nicolino has some awful numbers so far this year. He isn't striking anyone out. He has a grand total of 6 strikeouts in 29 and 1/3 innings pitched this year. He has 11 walks. That's just terrible, and this Tampa Bay Rays team is fourth in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. I expect them to get a lot of good rips against Nicolino. Consider this as well: almost 37% of balls hit by opposing batters off Nicolino have been hard hit balls. That is much higher than the league average of 30%. 

Matt Andriese isn't necessarily a bad pitcher, but he definitely isn't as good as his numbers look so far this year. Andriese sports a 2.11 ERA but a 4.77 SIERA and a 4.79 XFIP. Opponents batting average on batted balls in play is just .167. That number will definitely rise in time. Miami's offense ranks in the top ten against righties this year.

Adrian Johnson is behind the plate and I have him rated as a decent over umpire. He calls fewer strikes than the average umpire, and he is likely to make life a little more difficult for these pitchers. 

The over is 6-0 in the Marlins last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 6-0 in the Rays last 6 games vs a left handed starter. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 on turf. The over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 6-0 in Johnson's last 6 Wednesday games behind home plate. A 27-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The St. Louis Cardinals have torched Jason Hammel in the past, and the Chicago Cubs have torched Michael Wacha in the past.

These two offenses both rank in the top four in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. I expected both teams to work the count and get in some favorable situations. 

Wacha has been awful in his last two starts, and he is having some mechanical issues.

Hammel has a 5.58 ERA when pitching in St. Louis.

The over is 14-3 in Wacha's last 17 home starts. The over is 6-0 in his last 6 starts vs. the Cubs. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 home starts vs. the Cubs. The over is 6-1 in Hammel's last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record. A 31-4 trend. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Washington Nationals start Stephen Strasburg here, and he has been great this year. He's always had tremendous stuff, and this year he has had better command of a wide array of pitches. Strasburg is a top end starter. He may be slightly less consistent than some guys, but the Mets offense hasn't been hitting very well of late.

Matt Harvey has been bad this year, but his FIP of 3.63 suggests he has gotten some rotten luck this year. Harvey's velocity is down some, but it isn't to the level where he should just be getting shelled on a nightly basis. He has good numbers against Washington long term.

This number comes from an overadjustment of the total thanks to Harvey's recent struggles.

Vic Carapazza is the umpire here, and that's a very good thing for under bettors. In the past five years, he has called the 7th highest percentage of strikes of any umpire in the majors. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Arizona Diamondbacks rank fourth in the majors in weighted on base average this year against left handed pitching. Francisco Liriano has been very erratic this year, and he can't be trusted to pitch well here.

Shelby Miller is a guy that I believe can be trusted to pitch poorly at this point. Miller leads the majors with 25 walks so far this year. He has only 27 strikeouts. That's an awful strikeout/walk ratio right there. Miller is going to give the Pirates opportunities to score here, and the Pirates offense is underrated by many. Obviously McCutchen is good, but Marte is very good and the rest of the lineup is solid.

Both bullpens are very shaky, which could lead to several late runs scoring. The weather has warmed up considerably in Pittsburgh, which means the ball will be carrying a little more here.

The over is 4-0 in the DBacks last 4 road games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent scores 4 or more runs last game. The over is 2-0-2 in their last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less. The over is 6-0 in the Pirates last 6 Tuesday games. The over is 5-0 in the Pirates last 5 home games vs. a team with a road win percentage of 60% or higher. A 21-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Oakland A's offense has some severe problems right now. They were already without some guys they expected to get some contributions from like Canha and Phegley, but when Josh Reddick went down with an injury that hurt this offense badly. The A's have one of the worst offenses in baseball.

Seattle's Taijuan Walker has been a little inconsistent, but he seems to have taken a definite step forward this year. Walker has tremendous stuff and it is just a matter of time until he becomes a reliable starter for this team. 

Rich Hill is a guy I've been cautious to trust, but the advanced metrics all suggest Hill's very good start this season isn't a fluke. He has changed up his arsenal a bit, and it has worked brilliantly. Hill has an ERA of 2.54 and a FIP of 2.90. 

The under is 6-1-1 in Walker's last 8 starts. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams in Seattle. Take the under. 

*3 Star Cavs/Raptors Game 4 MONEY* The Cleveland Cavs have been prolific offensively so far this postseason, but Game 3 was their worst shooting performance in the playoffs thus far by a wide margin. Kyrie Irving was 3/19 from the floor and Kevin Love was 1/9 from the floor. Cleveland shot 35% from the floor as a team.

I don't expect that to happen again. Toronto's defense hasn't been very good on the whole this year, and Cleveland was getting good shots and missing them in Game 3. 

Toronto is much better offensively on their home floor. Guys like Derozan and Lowry have much more confidence getting to the basket when they are playing on their home floor. 

The first three games of this series have all had very high first halves and lower second halves because the game hasn't been close. We should get a closer contest where the scoring doesn't drop off as much late in this one. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* We have two starters who are fully capable of imploding at any point. Ubaldo Jimenez has walked 4 batters or more in 5 of his last 7 starts. Walking that many guys is a recipe for disaster in the big leagues. Jimenez comes into this game pitching in really bad form, and the Angels bats have heated up in the past couple weeks. 

Jered Weaver is throwing 80 mph fastballs and trying to consistently get major leaguers out. Weaver does a better job of it than most guys could with that kind of velocity, but it's only a matter of time until they start squaring it up. 

Baltimore's offense is one of the best in baseball, and the Angels offense is hot right now. This is one of those games where we could easily see big innings from both teams at some point throughout the game. These pitchers have plenty of blow up potential.

This park is a pitcher's park, but it is certainly better for hitters during the day and the wind will be blowing out at 10 mph in this one. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Cincinnati Reds bullpen is just epic bad this year. There is no other way to put it. Cincinnati simply can't find anyone to come in and get outs. The rotation is short-handed now, and John Lamb is reportedly starting this game despite a minor thumb injury on his pitching hand. That's not good at all to try to pitch through, and Seattle is a lineup that hits left-handed pitchers very well. 

Lamb doesn't pitch deep into the game very often, and that means several innings of the awful Reds bullpen. That's definitely a big plus for the over.

Felix Hernandez has been very hittable on the road this year, and his velocity is down a bit right now. The Reds have some power hitters and Hernandez is giving up the long ball this year. 

The over is 4-0-1 in the Mariners last 5 interleague road games. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 interleague games vs a left handed starter. The over is 6-0 in the Reds last 6 games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 following a loss. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a road team with a 60% or higher road win percentage. The over is 5-0 in Lamb's last 5 on four days of rest. A 33-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Totals TKO* The New York Yankees should get a good start from Masahiro Tanaka, who slumped against two solid offenses in his last two home starts. 

He'll go against a much worse offense here, and it will be in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the majors. Oakland is in a lot more trouble offensively now without Josh Reddick (out with an injury). Oakland already has multiple injuries on offense, and this team wasn't scoring many runs even with Reddick.

Sean Manaea has good stuff and should be a good pitcher on his home field. Manaea is coming off his best big league start in his last outing. He faces a Yankees offense that has been very bad this year against lefties.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Miami Marlins have crushed Tanner Roark in the past couple years. Roark had a 5.79 ERA against Miami last year, and so far this year in 3 starts he has a miserable 8.40 ERA against Miami. 

I would rate Justin Nicolino as one of the worst left-handed starting pitchers in baseball. He has proven nothing in the majors, and he really hasn't even pitched all that well in the minors either. Washington is destroying left handed pitching so far this year. The Nationals are averaging a whopping 5.93 runs per game against left handed pitchers this year.

Both teams should get plenty of scoring opportunities. Take the over here. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Detroit Tigers offense wasn't going to struggle for too long. They underachieved early in the year, but this is a really good lineup and I expect them to score a lot this year. Detroit has gotten hot of late and is now 6th in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. 

Tampa Bay just torched the Toronto pitching staff in their series at Toronto, and the Rays come in with lots of momentum. The Rays are first in the majors in home runs, and Anibal Sanchez has been having trouble keeping the ball in the park.

Sanchez has consistently been giving up 4 runs or so in 6 innings, and that's obviously not good enough. His performances have been very consistently bad this year. 

Matt Andriese has pitched well in his first two starts, but those were against the Angels and Oakland. This is a much tougher test for him.

The over is 5-0-1 in the Rays last 6 road games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games vs. a right handed pitcher. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 games after scoring 5 runs or more last game. The over is 7-0-1 in Sanchez's last 8 starts after the team scores 5 runs or more last game. The over is 4-0-1 in Sanchez's last 5 starts during game one of a series. The over is 4-0-2 in his last 6 starts vs. the AL East. A 36-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Francisco Giants pitching staff has been great lately. Jeff Samardzija gets the start for the Giants in this one, and he has been throwing the ball extremely well. Samardzija was sharp in his last outing at Chase Field in Arizona, and this time around he'll be in San Diego at one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball. Samardzija is getting ahead of batters at a great rate lately, and his fastball has been working very well.

James Shields has a great 2.53 ERA in his career against San Francisco. Shields is a guy who uses the park to his advantage very well, and he can usually pitch pretty deep into a game. 

The Padres offense is one of the worst in baseball, and the Giants offense has been inconsistent at best of late. A total of 7 isn't that low in a game played at PetCo Park. 

The under is 9-0 in the Giants last 9 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 road games. The under is 8-0 in their last 8 following a win. The under is 8-0 in their last 8 vs. the NL West. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less last game. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a righty. The under is 5-0 in Samardzija's last 5 road starts. The under is 6-0 in Shields' last 6 starts vs. the NL West. A 64-0 angle. Take the under.

*4 Star MLB Totals TKO* Jon Gray is still an underrated pitcher for the Colorado Rockies. It may be tough for him to put up good numbers at Coors Field, but he has already been doing it on the road. Gray has a career 2.18 ERA on the road, and a 1.38 ERA in two road starts this year. He has dominating stuff, and he is getting better with pitch sequencing as time goes by. 

Michael Wacha has been a great pitcher at home throughout his career with the Cardinals. The Rockies lineup is still solid, but it is far less imposing than it was a couple years ago. Busch Stadium is a good park for pitchers, and Wacha does a great job utilizing that to his benefit.

The Rockies bullpen is improved and the Cardinals bullpen is very good. Take the under here. 

*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Cleveland Indians and Cincinnati Reds square off one more time in this intrastate battle. Cleveland has won the first three games this week, and they look to pull off a sweep here. 

Josh Tomlin has a solid ERA so far this year, but his advanced statistics suggest he has been a bit lucky. Opponents batting average on balls in play is only .250. While I don't think Tomlin is a bad pitcher, I do believe he is a little worse than he has shown so far this year. 

Tim Adleman is a guy who was thrown into the starting rotation faster than anyone expected in Cincinnati, because everyone has been getting injured for the Reds. Adleman hasn't pitched badly in his first three starts, but he has only thrown 16 innings in 3 starts. Adleman only made 3 starts in Triple A before getting jumped up to the bigs. He is a candidate for regression as he has left 84.2% of runners on base this year. 

The Reds bullpen is historically bad, and with Adleman not pitching deep into the game, that plays a big role in why I like this selection. 

The over is 4-0-1 in the Indians last 5 following a win. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more. The over is 7-0 in Tomlin's last 7 starts following a quality start in his last appearance. The over is 8-0 in Tomlin's last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in the Reds last 4 games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. A 41-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star Wednesday's BEST Bet* The New York Yankees offense has finally started showing signs of life after underachieving for a very long time this year. Jacoby Ellsbury is back in the lineup, and he is key to their success. Arizona's offense is strong at home, and the Diamondbacks still have one of the best hitters in the majors in Paul Goldschmitt.

Chase Field's roof is expected to be open for this one. The roof open makes almost a full run of difference in the expected run scoring according to my database. The ball flies much better with the roof open. 

Shelby Miller gets the ball for the Diamondbacks and he has more walks than strikeouts this year. Miller has zero confidence now, and the Yankees are completely capable of putting up a big inning or two against him.

Nate Eovaldi is very inconsistent and he has trouble with the home run ball, which is bad with the roof open here in Phoenix.

The over is 5-0 in Eovaldi's last 5 interleague starts. The over is 3-1-1 in Miller's last 5 home starts. Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Thunder/Warriors Total DOMINATION* The Golden State Warriors dropped game one due to some poor shooting numbers. While Oklahoma City's defense had some to do with it, I believe it had more to do with Golden State just not making shots they normally make. The Warriors aren't going to be held to 44% shooting on their home floor very often. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook didn't shoot the ball all that well, and still Oklahoma City scored 108 points last game. 

The regular season meetings were very high scoring, and while the playoffs lead to a slightly slower pace, both of these teams will want to keep pushing the tempo.

Golden State shot only 17 free throws last game. They made only 11. Oklahoma City shot only 68% from the line last game. These are two tremendous free throw shooting teams, and we can expect to see more points from the charity stripe in this game.

The offenses get rolling in this contest. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Cincinnati Reds bullpen is the worst bullpen in the major leagues in dozens of years. There is no one down there to count on, and as a unit they have a ridiculously bad 6.46 ERA. That's more than a full run worse than the second worst bullpen in baseball.

Brandon Finnegan typically doesn't pitch deep into the game because he struggles with control issues. The Indians are likely to get several innings of chances to score on the Reds bullpen. Cleveland just scored 15 and 13 runs on the Reds the last two days. They probably won't do that again, but I think they can score several here. 

Mike Clevinger makes his first big league start for the Indians. Clevinger isn't a highly prized prospect, and his stuff is only mediocre. The Reds should get chances to score on him throughout this one.

Tim Timmons is the umpire here, and he is a solid over umpire with a small strike zone.

The over is 3-0-1 in the Indians last 4 following a win. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0-1 in Finnegan's last 5 starts on 4 days of rest. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A 15-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Detroit Tigers have scored 6 and 10 runs in their last two games. It was only a matter of time until the Tigers offense got going, and I think they should be able to keep it going against Phil Hughes tonight.

Detroit's lineup collectively has a .315 average against Hughes, and Hughes has struggled badly so far this year. I don't expect him to have much success slowing down this Tigers offense tonight.

On the other side, Mike Pelfrey is terrible, and this Twins lineup is showing signs of heating up as well. Minnesota has scored at least 5 runs in each of their last four games. Pelfrey is the type of guy who always puts people on base, so the Twins will have their chances again here.

The over is 6-0-2 in the Twins last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 Tuesday games. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a starter with a WHIP of greater than 1.30. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. The over is 7-0 in the Tigers last 7 home games vs. a right handed starter. The over is 3-0-1 in Hughes' last 4 starts vs. Detroit. A 30-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Angels have been hitting the ball better in this series so far, but I don't expect it to continue here. This Angels lineup is extremely weak. Mike Trout is a star and Calhoun and Pujols are solid, but outside of that this Angels order is very weak. The depth of this lineup is among the worst in baseball.

Felix Hernandez isn't quite what he was in the past, but he still has good stuff, and he is pitching at home where he is tremendous. Hernandez has a sparkling 1.43 ERA in his last 12 starts vs. the Angels as well, so he has dominated this team.

Hector Santiago has improved a lot in the past couple years, and I like his chances of slowing down Seattle here.

Mark Ripperger is one of the best under umpires in the business. He will give both pitchers the corners and we should see plenty of strikeouts. The under is 8-1-1 in his last 10 games behind home plate. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* These two starters are the primary reason for the over play here. Cesar Vargas isn't a highly touted guy, and he's been really bad in his first couple starts on the road. Milwaukee's offense has been crushing the baseball in the last few games. 

Zach Davies has been consistently bad this year. The over is 4-1 in his last 5 starts. Davies is walking almost exactly as many guys as he is striking out right now, and that's a terrible sign. The Padres offense isn't good, but they have been better in recent days and I think they score several here.

Both of these bullpens rank in the bottom 6 or 8 in the league, so late runs shouldn't come as a surprise in this one either. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants have played two straight games that have finished under the total despite the roof being open at Chase Field. While both of those games were low scoring, the final scores weren't quite indicative of how many scoring chances there were. 

Both days there were a bunch of guys left on base by both teams, and on Saturday there were 3 balls hit off the wall that were nearly home runs. 

Jake Peavy and Patrick Corbin are both having problems right now. Peavy just isn't good anymore. He is too old and he's lost his stuff. His fastball is much slower and his walk rate is the highest of his career right now. Corbin has pitched four times with the roof open at Chase Field and he has a 6.75 ERA in those games. 

The roof is slated to be open on Saturday with temperatures of 98 degrees and winds blowing out at 15 mph. That's perfect conditions for the ball to fly very well. Both teams should plate several runs in this one. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Saturday Night KNOCKOUT* I had the over in last night's Tigers/Orioles game, and that play failed badly as the final finished 1-0. I don't think that's going to happen again here. In the matchup last night between Tillman and Verlander there were two pitchers capable of throwing great games on certain occasions. Anibal Sanchez and Mike Wright do not seem to fit that mold right now.

Anibal Sanchez has zero confidence right now and his mechanics are off. Sanchez has a 5.89 ERA, and it isn't because of bad luck. Sanchez just hasn't been good. He is walking 5.4 batters per nine innings which is easily a career high. He's become a guy who gives up a lot of homers the last couple years, and this Orioles lineup definitely has some great home run hitters.

Mike Wright hasn't proven himself in the big leagues yet. While it's possible he will end up being a good pitcher, I don't think he is ready yet. Wright doesn't miss enough bats.

These are two great offenses and with these guys on the mound, I expect to see a lot of runs. 

The over is 18-6-3 in Sanchez's last 27 starts. The over is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two in Baltimore. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Arizona Diamondbacks offense is scoring almost 5 runs per game at home this year. San Francisco's offense is always much better away from home, since they play in such a strong pitcher's park.

Chase Field is a tremendous park for overs with the roof open in the warm weather. The roof is slated to be open for this one with a game time temperature of 99 degrees. The ball should be flying extremely well here.

Tripp Gibson is the umpire here, and my database ranks him in the top 25% of over umpires in the majors. 

Jeff Samardzija has an ERA above 5 when pitching in Arizona and Shelby Miller has been a mess all year. Miller is walking way too many people, and the Giants have the hitters to make him pay for his mistakes. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total Value* The Oakland A's and Tampa Bay Rays both have bad lineups. These are two offenses that I expect to see scuffle frequently throughout the course of the season. 

While Tampa Bay is better against lefties than righties, Rich Hill has really impressed me so far this year. Hill hasn't given up more than 4 hits in any of his last five starts. The Rays are likely to have a tough time stringing together hits.

Jake Odorizzi is a guy I'm high on right now. Odorizzi has always been good at home, and now he is maturing into a complete pitcher. He is good at keeping the ball down and avoiding the big innings.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Baltimore Orioles rank second in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Detroit Tigers rank 12th. 

Baltimore's offense is going to score a lot of runs this year. The Orioles have power hitters and good on base percentage guys and that's a nice combination to have. Detroit hasn't hit as well as expected so far this year, but it is only a matter of time.

Justin Verlander has been inconsistent this year, and his best days are clearly behind him. Chris Tillman is having a great start to the season, but I don't see him keeping up this kind of pace. Tillman just doesn't have good enough stuff. 

With these two offenses, I'll gladly take the over at this low number. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* This is a matchup two strong pitchers, and these are two offenses that are rather inconsistent. At times this year both the Mets and the Dodgers have looked good on offense, but at other times these offenses have been terrible. They'll have tough challenges in this one.

Noah Syndergaard is one of the top ten pitchers in baseball without any question. He is striking out 12.5 batters per nine innings which is great stuff. Syndergaard isn't going to back down from a challenge either. He pitched great at Dodger Stadium in the playoffs last year. The Mets bullpen is one of the top three in the majors also.

Kenta Maeda has been great so far this year, and I expect the Mets to struggle for a while against him with his deceptive delivery. 

The under is 4-0-1 in the Dodgers last 5 games. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 vs. a right handed starter. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. The under is 8-0-1 in Mark Ripperger's last 9 games as the home plate umpire. A 19-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total Value* The Tampa Bay Rays offense is awful against right handed pitching. Taijuan Walker has the stuff to have a breakout season for the Mariners, and he's off to a great start. Tampa Bay is able to put up runs against lefties, but against quality right-handers this Rays team is often shut down.

Chris Archer isn't off to a great start this year, but he has shown signs of coming into form of late. Archer has tremendous stuff, and I believe in him long term. The Mariners aren't a great hitting team, and Archer definitely has the ability to throw a gem. Archer has a great 2.99 ERA in day games in his career.

An under umpire and get away day are good factors too. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Toronto Blue Jays offense is going to break out at some point this year, but Madison Bumgarner is a really tough guy to do it against. Bumgarner will want to play the role of stopper here as the Giants have been skidding lately. He has proven very good in this role in the past.

Marcus Stroman has quality stuff, and he has an ERA (3.08) more than half a run lower during day games in his career than night games. With this being a day game after a night game and get away day I do expect some top players to be out of the lineup in this one. 

Tony Randazzo is the umpire here, and he has been on a nice 10-1 run to the under in his last 11 games behind the plate. His big strike zone should help both pitchers a lot.

The under is 10-0-1 in the Blue Jays last 11 after allowing 2 runs or less last game. The under is 5-0-2 in the Blue Jays last 7 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 interleague games. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 vs. the NL West. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games vs. a lefty. The under is 4-0 in Stroman's last 4 starts after the team allowed 2 runs or less. The under is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 home games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 interleague home games. The under is 4-0-1 in Bumgarner's last 5 interleague starts. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. A 50-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Chicago White Sox start Miguel Gonzalez in this one. Gonzalez was released by the Orioles. Gonzalez is a guy who works hard on the mound, but his stuff just isn't that good. His stuff was never anything better than average, and now he is in decline. Chicago is having a nice season, but they have a weakness at the back of the rotation. Gonzalez is getting a shot, but I don't expect things to go well for him in a hitter-friendly park like this one.

Colby Lewis isn't good, and he definitely isn't good when pitching at home. In Lewis' last 35 starts at home he has a 5.54 ERA. I expect the White Sox to get to him, and then the Texas pen is one of the worst in the league right now as well.

Warm weather should help the ball carry well on Monday night in Texas.

The over is 3-0-1 in the White Sox last 4 road games. The over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. The over is 4-0-1 in Lewis' last 5 Monday starts. The over is 5-0-1 in Lewis' last 6 starts after Texas scored 5 runs or more in the previous game. A 16-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total Value* The Houston Astros are a team that swings and misses a lot. Corey Kluber is a guy who misses a lot of bats. A free swinging team like Houston doesn't matchup very well against a guy like Kluber.

Kluber appears to have regained his top form as well. After a stretch of subpar performance for a while, Kluber has locked things in of late. He has thrown two great games against Detroit in the past few weeks. 

Mike Fiers isn't necessarily a guy I'm really high on, but he is better than he has pitched so far this year at least. Houston's bullpen is also significantly better than their numbers so far this year would indicate. 

The under is 21-5-2 in the last 28 meetings between these two teams. The under is 6-2-1 in Kluber's last 9 starts. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Boston Red Sox offense is the single best in the majors against right handed pitching. Sonny Gray is a good pitcher, but I'm not sure he is as good as his numbers from the past couple years suggest. Gray's peripherals suggest he got a bit lucky in those years, and now he goes to a hitter-friendly park against a red hot offense. Gray isn't in his best form right now.

Clay Buchholz is a tough one to figure out, because he can be so good or he can be terrible. Buchholz has consistently been terrible against Oakland though. He has an ERA of 6.81 in 8 career starts against the A's. 

The wind will be blowing out at about 15 mph here.

The over is 5-0 in Gray's last 5 road starts. The over is 4-1 in Buchholz's last 5 starts vs. Oakland. I'm taking the over. 

*4 Star Sunday Night Baseball CASH* The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox take center stage on Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN. Steven Wright has pitched well this year, but I don't think he's as good as his numbers this year would lead you to believe. Wright is nearly 32 years old and struggled to make it into the majors for a long time. He had mediocre Triple A numbers for many years and had a 4.04 ERA last year. His 1.67 ERA this year won't stay for too much longer.

Luis Severino was very fortunate last year. Severino had a 2.89 ERA but a FIP of 4.37. His FIP is 4.44 this year and his ERA is 6.31. Severino has potential, but right now he is being crushed by the long ball. 

Boston is first in the majors against right handed pitching, and the Yankees offense is better than they have shown so far this year.

I expect both teams to get on the board plenty of times in this one. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Angels and the Tampa Bay Rays are two of the worst offenses in the majors against right handed pitching. The Angels are averaging only 3.43 runs per game against right handed pitching and a .237 batting average. The Rays have been even worse. Tampa Bay has a .211 batting average against righties and they are averaging only 3.08 runs per game.

Matt Andriese and Nick Tropeano are certainly not stars, but they don't need to be against these offenses. The Rays bullpen ranks as league average in ERA while the Angels rank as the fourth best bullpen in the majors by that measure. 

The under is 17-6-4 in the Rays last 27 vs. a right handed starter. The under is 4-0-1 in Tropeano's last 5 starts. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Saturday's BEST Bet* The San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies have been piling up the runs lately, so we get a total that is a little too high here based on recency bias from the oddsmakers. San Francisco's Johnny Cueto should be a great fit for this park, and I expect him to pitch very well at home through the season. Cueto is at his best early in the year. 

Jon Gray is a guy who is going to be very good. Gray might struggle at times in Coors Field, but he has elite stuff and is a guy who can shut down a lot of lineups away from Coors Field.

The ball shouldn't be flying well here with a high dewpoint and a chance for a passing shower in San Francisco on Saturday afternoon. 

I see a close low scoring game all the way. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Jeff Locke isn't a good pitcher, and he is a really bad pitcher on the road. Adam Wainwright was a great pitcher a few years ago, but he has a lot to prove about what kind of pitcher he is right now. Wainwright has an ERA above 6 on the year.

Locke has allowed Cardinals hitters to have a .381 OBP against him in his career. Wainwright has been amazing over the course of his career, but one team that has given him trouble is the Pirates. The Pirates have a .351 OBP against Wainwright. 

Dana DeMuth is a good over umpire in this one, and the weather is a big help too. The temperature is expected to reach 85 degrees and the wind will be blowing out at about 15 mph.

The over is 5-0-1 in Locke's last 6 starts during game 2 of a series. The over is 4-0 in Locke's last 4 starts when his opponent scores 2 runs or less last game. The over is 6-0-2 in the Cardinals last 8 following a loss. The over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 Saturday games. The over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 after scoring 2 runs or less last game. A 24-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Detroit Tigers and Texas Rangers meet early on Saturday afternoon. Detroit starts Mike Pelfrey, and he is pure fade material right now. The oddsmakers know it though, and have made the Rangers a pretty big favorite despite having the shaky A.J. Griffin on the mound here. 

Griffin has pitched well so far this year, but looking back at his history you'll see that he has been very up and down. This Detroit lineup is far better than they have looked of late, and I think they'll bounce out of this slump very soon.

Marquez is the umpire here and that's good for the over. The wind will be blowing out at 15 mph during the game. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Cincinnati Reds have the worst bullpen in the majors. In fact, they have the worst bullpen the major leagues have seen in many years. Cincinnati's bullpen has allowed at least one run in 23 straight games. That's truly mind boggling. Milwaukee's bullpen is the second worst pen in my bullpen rankings. If both bullpens end up in the game for a while, that's great for over bettors.

Tyler Cravy starts for Milwaukee and he had a 5.70 ERA last year in the majors. He has only been mediocre in Triple A, and I see no reason to believe he'll be a good big leaguer anytime soon. Tim Adleman starts for Cincinnati. He only made 3 starts in Triple A before being moved up to the majors. He has decent stuff, but I don't expect him to last late into the game.

The over is 12-1 in the Brewers last 13 following a loss. The over is 4-0-1 in the Reds last 5 following a win. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two in Cincinnati. A 20-1 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA Friday Fast CASH* The Cleveland Cavaliers just set a record for most made 3's in a game with 25. Also, they put down 18 of them in game one. Cleveland is shooting well over 50% from long range in this series so far. Cleveland is good from long range, but they can't keep shooting it that well. 

Atlanta had the best defensive efficiency rating in the Eastern Conference this year, and I expect a strong defensive effort from them in front of their home crowd and down 2-0. The Hawks offense has had trouble getting open looks against this Cavs defense in key moments during this series and even in the regular season.

The tempo in the first couple games was about 92 possessions per game, which is very slow. With any kind of normal shooting numbers, that makes the under look very intriguing. 

The public is taking the over and the line is still dropping. I'm on the under in this one. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Two young starters in this one, and I think we see plenty of runs. Paul Emmel is the home plate umpire here, and he is one of the best over umpires in all of baseball. Neither pitcher will be getting the corners in this one.

The Red Sox offense is tremendous against right handed pitchers. They are scoring 6 runs per game against right handed starters on average so far this year. The White Sox will be starting Erik Johnson here, and I don't believe he has staying power in the big leagues. Johnson doesn't have that pitch to put away the opposition.

Henry Owens has more potential, but he walks too many guys for my liking, and Emmel will make that difficult on him.

The over is 6-0 in Owens' last 6 road starts. The over is 4-0 in the Red Sox last 4 during game 3 of a series. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less. The over is 7-0 in Johnson's last 7 starts during game 3 of a series. The over is 8-0-1 in Johnson's last 9 when his opponent scores 5 or more in their previous game. The over is 2-0-2 in Johnson's last 4 home starts. A 30-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB BEST Bet* It's Chase Anderson vs. Alfredo Simon here and that should mean a lot of runs here. That's not the only reason to like the over though, since these are the two worst bullpens in the majors as well.

Chase Anderson has potential, but in his last couple starts he has been absolutely rocked, and in recent quotes he sounds like he has lost some confidence. 

Alfredo Simon has a 13.50 ERA on the year, and he looks like a guy who has lost his stuff in a big way in the past year or so. He is almost 35 years old, and his velocity isn't very impressive.

Both starters have meltdown potential like crazy, and these bullpens are capable of giving up runs in a hurry.

The over is 11-1 in the Brewers last 12 following a loss. The over is 5-0 in Anderson's last 5 road starts. The over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings at Cincinnati between these two. A 22-2 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Totals TKO* Adam Conley threw a no hitter through 7 and 2/3 innings in his last game. He threw more pitches in that game than he has thrown in any other game in his career. Conley is improving and I like his potential, but I see this as a tough spot for him. Most pitchers have a "letdown" spot after that kind of performance, and a youngster coming off a big workload is a prime candidate for that.

Robbie Ray is a solid, but unspectacular lefty for Arizona. Miami smashes left-handed pitching, as does Arizona. These two teams are very comfortable against the lefties, and that's a big reason for this play.

The weather should be nice enough for the roof to be open and the wind will be blowing out here. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Detroit Tigers lineup is very good, and it would be tough to find a better first five in any other batting order in the majors. Cleveland's offense is just slightly better than the league average against right-handed pitching. They are certainly capable of scoring several against a subpar pitcher.

Anibal Sanchez has all sorts of mechanical problems right now, and his confidence is gone. The Indians lit him up a couple weeks ago, and I don't see any reason to believe he'll quiet them down in this game. 

Corey Kluber is a great pitcher, but the Tigers have been very tough on him throughout his career. Detroit hitters collectively have an impressive .318 average against Kluber. 

The over is 4-0 in the Tigers last 4 following a loss. The over is 6-0-1 in Sanchez's last 7 Wednesday starts. The over is 3-0-1 in his last 4 road starts vs. a team that doesn't have a winning record. The over is 4-0 in Kluber's last 4 starts vs. the Tigers. The over is 4-0 in home plate umpire Gabe Morales' last 4 games involving the Tigers and 4-0 in his last 4 games involving the Indians. A 25-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Oakland A's and the Seattle Mariners finish their three game series on Wednesday afternoon. This is a game I was watching for the under, and when it went to 7.5 that was enough for me to pull the trigger.

Sean Manaea is Oakland's top pitching prospect. After a shaky first start, I like his chances of pitching well in this second start of his career. Seattle is a little bit below league average against lefties.

The Oakland offense is terrible, and Felix Hernandez has tremendous numbers against this team. Collectively, their OBP against Felix is only .261. 

Both bullpens rank in the top ten in the majors and this is a get away day game with an under umpire in Adam Hamari. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Sonny Gray and the Oakland A's host Hisashi Iwakuma and the Seattle Mariners on Tuesday. Both of these guys are coming off rough starts, and that's what gives us value on the under in this one. 

There's nothing about the Oakland lineup that scares anyone. Oakland may well have the worst lineup in the American League. Seattle's offense is improved, but they are about league average on offense still.

Both lineups have an on base percentage of less than .300 against the opposing pitcher in this one. The Mariners have a .265 OBP against Gray and the A's have a .287 OBP against Iwakuma.

Dan Bellino is the umpire here and he is a solid under umpire. Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Total of the Week* This total is a full run too low. To start with, we have Chad Fairchild as the umpire here, and he ranks in my database in the top 25 umpires as far as fewest strikes called in the past two years, so that is helpful to the over.

Jeff Samardzija has been making too many mistake pitches inside the strike zone so far this year. The Reds offense is not spectacular, but they do still have some offensive talent. Joey Votto had a big hit last night, and there is no way he is going to continue to slump the way he has in the first month of the season. Cincinnati should get scoring chances.

San Francisco's offense has been on fire of late. Only twice in their last ten games have they scored less than 4 runs. The Giants have scored 7 runs or more in four of those last ten games. This Giants offense is very good, especially when they are on the road. They are playing in a ballpark that is much more hitter-friendly than their home park here.

Cincinnati's bullpen is the worst bullpen I've seen in a very long time. This Reds bullpen is just awful. The numbers they are putting up across the board are worst in the majors by a mile. Moscot isn't anything special as the starter, and once he goes out of the game, things look even worse for Cincinnati.

The over is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 road games. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 after their opponent allows 5 runs or more last game. The over is 10-1 in their last 11 overall. The over is 4-0-1 in the Reds last 5 home games vs. a right handed starter. The over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 home games. The over is 4-0-2 in the last 6 meetings between these two in Cincinnati. The over is 5-0 in Fairchild's last 5 games behind home plate. A 38-1 angle. Take the over big. TOP Total of the Week. 

*3 Star MLB Monday MONEY* The San Diego Padres offense has hit left handed pitching well this year, but they rank dead last in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Rockies lineup is good, but they aren't great away from home. 

Jon Gray is an up and coming star. While he needs to improve his command, Gray has all the tools to be a very good pitcher for this Rockies team. He faces the weakest offense he'll face all year.

James Shields is a quality pitcher who eats up a lot of innings and does a good job keeping his team in the game.

This one is played in San Diego, which is one of the best pitcher parks in the majors. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Kansas City Royals offense is in a deep slump right now, and I don't like their chances of busting out of it against Taijuan Walker.

Walker is a breakout candidate this year, and he has pitched very well so far this season. Walker has been ability to limit the amount of free passes this year. He has better command of his strikeout pitches now than he has had at any other point in his career.

Ian Kennedy is off to a solid start to the year, and I think he can have a quality year for the Royals this year. The Seattle offense is improved, but they still aren't great.

These are two of the top five bullpens in my rankings, so I expect good work in the late innings. 

The under is 8-0 in the Royals last 8 during game three of a series. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 Sunday games. The under is 2-0-2 in Kennedy's last 4 starts. The under is 4-0 in the Mariners last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in Walker's last 4 starts. A 22-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Cardinals and Nationals meet in what should be a low scoring game on Sunday afternoon. Carlos Martinez has turned into a nice starting pitcher, and while Max Scherzer hasn't been at his best recently, it is just a matter of time before he turns things around.

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire here. Eddings has the single highest strike percentage called in the majors in the past 7 years. Obviously, that's very helpful to the under. Both Scherzer and Martinez are guys who can punch out a lot of batters, and Eddings has a very high strikeout to walk ratio.

Look for a pitcher's duel here. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* I rate the Milwaukee Brewers as the second worst bullpen in the majors according to my numbers. Miami's bullpen ranks right in the middle of the pack. Tom Koehler is much worse on the road than at home. Wily Peralta has absolutely no confidence in himself right now, and he has been getting crushed by just about everyone this year. 

This is a game where I think big innings are likely on each side. The early sharp money has sided with the over, and I agree with that. I think we'll see plenty of runs. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Angels offense has been dreadful against right handed pitching this year. The Angels have been pretty good against lefties. Derek Holland has really struggled with this Angels team in his career. 

Matt Shoemaker isn't fooling anyone this year. He seems to be having problems with his mechanics, and that is never a good thing. Shoemaker relies heavily on deception, and right now that isn't working.

These two bullpens are really bad. A lot of scoring late in this one should come as no surprise. 

The over is 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings between these two in Texas. Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA Friday Night MONEY* The Indiana Pacers collapsed in Toronto in the 4th quarter in Game 5. The Pacers had that game and gave it away. Now, they have their back up against the wall down 3-2 in the series. 

This has been a tightly contested series where the two offenses have struggled to find any real consistency. The tempo is slow in this series because Toronto plays at one of the slowest paces of any team in the NBA. 

Elimination games tend to lead to unders. The under sits at a little over 60% in potential elimination games in the NBA playoffs in the past seven years. This total hasn't been adjusted downward by the oddsmakers, so I'm grabbing the under in what should be a tight game.

The under is 5-0 in the Raptors last 5 road games. The under is 8-2 in the Pacers last 10 home games. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Chase Field roof will be open again on Thursday night, and I'll once again be on the over when the Cardinals take on the Diamondbacks. I've gotten the win from the last two days with the over, and the over also cashed in game one of this series when I didn't have a play on the game. I believe this fourth game of the series will also go over the posted total.

Chase Field is a totally different park with the roof open. The ball flies extremely well with the open roof. Those long fly ball outs become home runs.

Michael Wacha is a good pitcher, but he is much better when pitching at home than on the road. Rubby De La Rosa is extremely inconsistent, and I don't think he'll put a second straight strong start together. If you look at his career numbers, the Cardinals have crushed him in the past.

The over is 5-0 in the Cardinals last 5 games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a right handed starter. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The over is 4-0 in Wacha's last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in the Diamondbacks last 4 games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the NL Central. The over is 3-0-1 in the last 4 games between these teams. A 28-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star Wednesday's BEST Bet* The Los Angeles Angels start Nick Tropeano here. Tropeano has a great ERA so far this year, but I'm skeptical of his ability to keep up his current level. Tropeano doesn't have high end stuff, and he has been inconsistent in the past. He has also faced Oakland, Minnesota, and Seattle in his first three starts. The Royals will be the best offense he has gone against yet. 

Chris Young is almost 37 years old and his stuff is declining. Young has done a nice job for the Royals, but I think his good run is coming to an end. Young gives up a bunch of fly balls, and the Angels certainly have some power hitters in their lineup. 

Tim Timmons is the umpire here, and he is an over umpire who won't give these guys the corners. 

With two starting pitchers with a lot of question marks, this number is too low. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Arizona Diamondbacks and St. Louis Cardinals have gone over the posted total in the first two games in this series, and I think this one will go over as well. Chase Field's roof is slated to be open for this one, and that's a huge deal. The ball flies extremely well with the roof open, and I believe the roof being open is worth almost a full run to the total.

Adam Wainwright and Patrick Corbin are both good pitchers, but both are trying to recover from major injuries. Both of these guys have been less than stellar so far this year. As they try to work out the kinks, it's been apparent that they won't be quite as good as they were in the past. Wainwright in particular has dropped off quite a bit.

With the roof open, this number is too low. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Chase Field is a great park for hitters with the roof open. Long-term data suggests the roof being open is worth at least one full run to the total in Arizona. 

Shelby Miller has been a mess this year. He's walking all kinds of batters, and the Cardinals have plenty of patient hitters. Arizona's offense is very capable of scoring runs at home, especially with the roof open and the ball flying well. 

The Cardinals have given Carlos Martinez great run support, and Miller is putting so many people on right now. 

For the roof being open, this number is too low. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Tampa Bay Rays host the Baltimore Orioles for a second straight night. Baltimore was shut out by the Rays on Monday night. While this Orioles offense is very good, I think they could struggle again here against Jake Odorizzi. Odorizzi has excellent stuff and I expect a breakout season from him this year. Odorizzi has great splits at home in his career.

Ubaldo Jimenez can sometimes struggle with control, but he'll get a lot of help here from Ron Kulpa being the home plate umpire. Kulpa has the single best under record in baseball in the past ten years. Kulpa is a strike calling machine, and Jimenez and Odorizzi will both be getting the corners in this one.

Baltimore's bullpen is great and their defense is excellent as well. Tampa Bay is one of the worst offense in the league against right handed pitching. 

The under is 7-0-1 in the Orioles last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 after giving up 2 runs or less. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the AL East. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in Jimenez's last 4 road starts. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 starts overall. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. the AL East. 

The under is 5-0-1 in the Rays last 6 home games vs. a right handed starter. The under is 5-0 in the Rays last 5 Tuesday games. The under is 3-0-1 in Odorizzi's last 4 on turf. The under is 2-0-2 in his last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. A 51-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Rich Hill has been having a nice year, but I don't expect him to quiet this Detroit lineup. The Tigers offense is excellent. They slumped for the 3 game series against Cleveland, but they were back in a big way last night. Detroit is going to score a lot of runs this year.

The Oakland offense isn't very good, but Mike Pelfrey has a way of making bad offenses look good. Quite frankly, Pelfrey is a total gas can right now. Pelfrey has been stranding runners at an epic rate and his performances have been much worse than his pitching lines would indicate. Pelfrey is going to get crushed soon. You just can't count on leaving the bases loaded constantly as he has done this year.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star NBA Red Hot CASH* The Cavs and Pistons are playing this series at an extremely slow tempo. The average pace here has been 89.08 possessions so far this series. That's the slowest first round series in the playoffs by a wide margin so far this year. 

The shooting numbers have actually been good in this series or there would have been some very low scoring games. The total has been adjusted downward slightly in this game, but it isn't enough to keep me off the under.

The public is 62% on the over thus far and the line hasn't moved up. 

I had this line projected at 194.5, so I see clear value here. Take the under. 

*3 Star Warriors/Rockets Total DOMINATION* The Golden State Warriors haven't shot the ball all that well in this series so far. Stephen Curry is expected back for this game, and I think he gives this Warriors team a major shot in the arm. The tempo is always going to be quick when these two teams meet, and there should be a lot of free throws attempted here.

The public is 67% on the under at this time, but the line is moving up, which is a good sign of sharp money on the over. 

The Rockets defense isn't very good, and the Warriors obviously have the best offense in the league. Golden State should be ready for a big game offensively. Houston will get to the line more at home. Take the over. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Play of the Week* The Los Angeles Angels offense is very weak outside of Mike Trout. Trout is obviously a stud, but there is very little help for him in this lineup. Seattle has gotten a little better on offense this year, but they still have holes in their lineup. 

Wade Miley has been hit hard this year, but he has a long history that suggests he is better than his numbers this year appear. Matt Shoemaker is much better at home.

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire, and there isn't a better under umpire in the game than him. Miller has a massive strike zone and he loves to ring batters up.

A very interesting note here: both of these pitchers have much better splits in day games in their career vs. night games. Wade Miley has a 3.41 ERA in day games (4.27 at night). Matt Shoemaker has a 2.72 ERA in day games (3.94 at night). 

The under is 4-0 in the Mariners last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 Sunday games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.3 or higher. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record. 

The under is 7-0 in the Angels last 7 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a lefty. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 during game 3 of the series. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A 40-0 angle. 

Take the under big. TOP Play of the Week. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Eickhoff and Peralta start for the Phillies and Brewers here. Eickhoff has slightly deceptive stuff, but he should regress to the mean after an excellent start. The Brewers still have several good bats in their lineup.

Wily Peralta is a mess right now. Peralta has spoken recently about his loss of confidence, and he is putting people on base at an amazingly high rate. 

I'm not high on either starter, and then the bullpens are just awful. These are two of the five worst bullpens in baseball. 

Jim Wolf is the umpire here and he rates an over umpire with a smaller than average strike zone. 

The over is 7-1 in Peralta's last 8 starts. The over is 9-2-2 in Wolf's last 13 behind home plate. Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Late Night 100% CRUSHER* The Portland Blazers and Los Angeles Clippers meet in game 3 of their series on Saturday night. 

Los Angeles completely shut down Portland's offense in the first two games of the series. Based on both this series so far this year and the past encounters, it appears that Chris Paul is just a very tough matchup for Damian Lillard. Lillard has had a difficult time getting things going against Paul in the past. 

One thing that few realize is how good this Clippers defense is this year. The Clippers rank 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They are tied with Golden State in his measure. 

There has been one game all year between these two teams (in 6 meetings) that has gone over this total and that was game one of this series based on 3 late tough 3 pointers falling in the last minute of a blowout.

The tempo of this series has been relatively slow and that should continue.

The under is 6-0 in the Blazers last 6 Saturday games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following a loss. The under is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between these two teams. An 18-0 angle. Take the under.  

*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Chase Field roof will be open for this game, and that's very important. Chase Field is a hitter's paradise with the roof open because of the dry heat. The ball flies extremely well in these conditions.

Juan Nicasio takes on Rubby De La Rosa here. Nicasio had a great spring, but he has been shaky in his last couple games, and this is his toughest spot of the year thus far.

De La Rosa has been much worse when pitching at Arizona than anywhere else. I believe that is because he really struggles when the roof is open at Chase Field. De La Rosa has a very high 5.58 ERA at Chase Field in his career. 

The over is 6-0 in the Pirates last 6 road games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs a right handed starter. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a home win percentage of 40% or lower. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the NL West. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following a win. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more last game. The over is 7-0-1 in De La Rosa's last 8 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 3-0-1 in his last 4 vs. the NL Central. A 37-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star Saturday NBA Fast CASH* The Charlotte Hornets couldn't have possibly played worse defense in the first two games of this series. Miami put on an absolute shooting clinic. The Heat scored 1.35 points per possession over the first two games. To put that in perspective, Golden State was the most efficient offense in the NBA in the regular season. They averaged 1.12 points per possession. 

Miami can't keep shooting the ball that well every game. Charlotte should dig deep in this one, especially with it being at home. 

Additionally, the pace of this series has been the single slowest pace of any series in the NBA playoffs. If that continues, and shooting percentages normalize, this total is far too high.

Look for a return to normal here. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Detroit Tigers have one of the best lineups in the American League. Cleveland has an improved lineup this year, and they are facing a pitcher who is clearly in decline in Anibal Sanchez.

Corey Kluber has some troubling signs in his peripherals. I still believe Kluber is a good pitcher, but he's definitely not at the level he was a couple years ago. It's important to note though that even when Kluber was pitching at his best, Detroit was a team that gave him a lot more trouble than the average team. Kluber has a 4.72 ERA in his career against Detroit.

Anibal Sanchez is definitely not the same pitcher he was a few years ago. Sanchez doesn't have the same strike out pitches and his ERA and other indicators have dropped off severely in the last two years. 

We have a good over umpire here in Adrian Johnson. 

The over is 6-0 in Johnson's last 6 games involving the Indians. The over is 6-0 in Sanchez's last 6 home starts. The over is 5-1 in Kluber's last 6 starts vs. the Tigers. A 17-1 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star Cavs/Pistons Total DOMINATION* The Pistons and Cavs have shot the ball extremely well from 3 point range in the first two games in this series. The first game it was Detroit knocking down everything from long range. Last game it was Cleveland. I would expect some normalized shooting numbers in this game.

Cleveland initially pushed the tempo with Lue as their head coach, but they have slowed things down of late. The average pace of 91 possessions through the first two games of this series shows that this has largely been a halfcourt battle. 

I think this total is posted a few points too high based on the high shooting numbers from the first couple games. Take the under here. 

*3 Star Thursday's MLB BEST Bet* The Detroit Tigers don't have great hitters at the bottom of the order, but from one through five in the order no one is better in all of baseball. Kansas City has a group of very professional hitters who make you work and don't beat themselves.

Mike Pelfrey isn't a good pitcher at all, and I'll be very surprised if he can silence the KC bats like Jordan Zimmermann did last night. Edinson Volquez is better, but I still don't see him as a top flight starter.

The career numbers are staggering when it comes to the pitchers vs. the opposition here. The Tigers have a great .391 OBP against Volquez. The Royals have an amazing .427 OBP against Pelfrey.

The over is 40-18-4 in Detroit's last 62 road games. The over is 8-1 in the last 9 between these two teams. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks meet in a get away game early Thursday afternoon. Johnny Cueto and Shelby Miller are on the mound in this one.

Shelby Miller is off to a bad start this year, but I do believe Miller is a much better pitcher than he has shown so far this year. Miller has a spectacular 2.66 ERA in day games (3.60 at night).

Johnny Cueto has a sparkling 2.58 ERA in day games in his career (3.74 at night). Cueto's best month of the year is April as well.

We are likely to see some regulars sitting out with this being a get away day game. This is a big pitcher's park, and both teams have solid defenses. 

The under is 15-3 in the last 18 meetings between these two. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* Bill Miller is the home plate umpire in this one. Miller has been one of the very best under umpires in the game for many years in a row. He loves to punch out guys, and he should get plenty of chances in this game. 

Zack Greinke is off to a slow start, but he will pitch well again this year. Greinke has a stellar 1.96 ERA in more than 36 innings with Miller behind home plate. Madison Bumgarner has a tremendous 1.80 ERA in his 20 innings with Miller behind the dish.

Greinke has a 1.78 ERA pitching at San Francisco. Bumgarner has a 2.54 ERA against Arizona in more than 100 innings. 

The under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between these teams. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Sam Holbrook is the home plate umpire here, and he has traditionally been one of the very best over umpires in the business. Both Carlos Martinez and Kyle Hendricks have struggled against the opposing lineup in this one. 

Chicago's offense is one of the best in baseball. It's a deep lineup, and one that will make pitchers work very hard this year. St. Louis' offense isn't up to that same level, but they are certainly better than the average lineup.

The posted total here is extremely low. While get away day games can be good for the under, that hasn't been the case in Holbrook's games. The over is 39-13-3 in Holbrook's last 55 Wednesday games behind the plate. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Celtics/Hawks CASH* The Atlanta Hawks and Boston Celtics played to a 102-101 final in Game one. Boston's shooting woes kept that game from being higher scoring. Both Boston and Atlanta love to push the pace, so there's no doubt that the tempo will be quick here. 

Avery Bradley is the Celtics best defender, and it isn't even close. Atlanta's guards will get more open looks with Bradley out with an injury today. The Celtics Isiah Thomas had a bad game one as far as shooting, but he should be better tonight.

We have three overs referees assigned for this game including the single best over referee in the game in Scott Foster. Expect a quick whistle and plenty of free throws. Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Sunday Total DOMINATION* The Miami Heat did play at a slightly quicker pace at the end of the season, but they still ranked among the ten slowest teams in the league in the last month of the year. Dwyane Wade has long preferred a slow tempo and this Heat team is likely to try to slow the game back down in the playoffs. Charlotte has a slightly slower than average tempo as well. 

Miami ranks 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency and Charlotte ranks 9th. Only one of the four meetings in the regular season went over this posted total. The playoffs usually bring better defense and a slower tempo. 

I think this one is a few points too high. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Sunday's BEST Bet* The San Diego Padres offense might be the worst in all of baseball. This is a terrible lineup in every way. They have no stars, and they have very little depth. They'll be up against a good young pitcher in Patrick Corbin. I think Corbin will have a very nice season this year. 

The Arizona lineup isn't very good outside of Paul Goldschmitt either. They have a bad bottom of the order.

These teams played a 14 inning game on Saturday night. I think that means both Corbin and Robbie Erlin will pitch deep into the game to save the bullpen. Since I like both of these lefties pretty well that's a good thing. 

Doug Eddings is a great under umpire, and he's behind the dish here. Eddings has the biggest strike zone of any umpire in the majors. The under is a whopping 37-16-5 in Eddings last 58 Sunday games behind home plate. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Colby Lewis at home is always worth at least an over lean. Lewis has been outright awful at home in the last few years. He routinely has an ERA north of 5 here. He'll be facing an excellent Orioles offense in this game as well. Baltimore is going to put up a lot of runs this year.

Yovani Gallardo is a veteran who isn't a bad pitcher, but he also isn't dominant in any way. The Texas lineup can put up runs especially when playing at home. The middle of this order is a good one. 

Pat Hoberg is behind the plate and he has a small strike zone, so he'll pinch the zone on both pitchers. Take the over. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Total of the Week* The Minnesota Twins and the Los Angeles Angels meet Saturday afternoon in Minnesota. The Twins got their first win of the season last night in a 5-4 contest. 

Jered Weaver starts for the Angels and in the past that was always a good thing. Weaver is no longer the same pitcher though. Weaver throws 80 mph fastballs and has some terrible peripheral numbers. In 2014, Weaver had a 4.70 ERA on the road. Last year, Weaver had a 6.01 ERA on the road. 

Ricky Nolasco isn't a particularly good pitcher, and he's been particularly bad when pitching at Target Field. Nolasco has a 4.89 ERA at Target Field in his career. Nolasco has been hit hard by the Angels also. This Angels lineup has a tremendous .356 average against Nolasco all time.

John Tumpane is the umpire here and he's a slight over umpire which helps the cause as well.

The over is 6-1 in Weaver's last 7 starts vs. Minnesota. The over is 20-6-1 in the last 27 meetings between these two in Minnesota. Take the over big. TOP RATED Play

*4 Star NBA Playoffs Total DOMINATION* The Indiana Pacers rank third in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Toronto Raptors ranked 11th in the league in defensive efficiency. While Toronto was 5th in the league in offensive efficiency, the Pacers were way down at number 23. 

In the NBA playoffs, we often see the tempo slow down a great deal. It makes a lot of sense because so much more is on the line. Additionally, the defense usually picks up. Indiana has been playing relatively fast this year, but Toronto at the second slowest pace of any team in the NBA. The Raptors should be able to control the tempo on their home floor.

While about 70% of the public bets so far are on the over, the line here has been gradually dropping. That's a good sign of sharp money on the under in this one. 

This total is a few points too high. Take the under here. 

*3 Star MLB Giants/Dodgers Friday Night CASH* It's Madison Bumgarner vs. Clayton Kershaw once again. We've been treated to this matchup a lot here early in the season. Bumgarner and Kershaw bring out the best in each other, and that's why this posted total is so low. While I'm not usually keen on betting under this low of a number, I still think it's a good value.

Bumgarner has an amazing 2.12 career ERA at Dodger Stadium. Kershaw has a career 1.57 ERA against the Giants. He has never had a yearly ERA higher than 2.25 against San Francisco. The Giants hitters have a miserable .199 on base percentage against Kershaw.

Both of these guys are great at pitching deep into the game, and this should be a great low scoring game.

The under is a whopping 21-5-2 in Kershaw's last 28 starts vs. the Giants. The under is 12-3-1 in MadBum's last 16 starts vs. the Dodgers and 4-0 in his last 4 road starts against the Dodgers. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Bill Miller has been the single most reliable under umpire for me in the past few seasons. Miller has a massive strike zone that pitchers love and hitters constantly get frustrated by. This one is a get away day game in the early afternoon. It's likely that some of the better hitters will sit this game out. That combined with the strong under umpire here makes this one a play for me.

Wily Peralta is a wild card. Peralta has pitched well in day games in the past though, and he has Miller behind the dish here. Jaime Garcia has been brilliant at home throughout his career, and he has been amazing against Milwaukee as well. Garcia has a 2.90 ERA in more than 100 career innings against Milwaukee. He has a 2.70 ERA in his career at home.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Tampa Bay Rays offense isn't impressive. Tampa Bay is going to be shutdown by good pitchers a lot this year. I believe Danny Salazar is on the verge of breaking out and becoming an excellent starter. He has all the necessary tools. Salazar dominated Tampa Bay on the road last year, and I think he'll pitch well again here.

Chris Archer's career numbers against Cleveland aren't very good, but those are misleading. None of those starts came last year when Archer took it to the next level. Also, one terrible start skewed his numbers against the Tribe, and that was in his rookie season. Archer is definitely one of the best pitchers in the American League, and he's been at his best early in the season over the course of his career.

Mike Winters is a bit of an under umpire, so that's a nice boost, and this one is a get away day game, which means some solid hitters may be sitting this game out. 

The under is 4-0-2 in the Rays last 6 games. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 home games. The under is 3-0-2 in their last 5 vs. a right handed starter. The under is 5-0-1 in Salazar's last 6 starts on 5 days of rest. The under is 4-0-1 in his last 5 road starts. The under is 4-0 in the Indians last 4 on turf. A 23-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Totals TKO* The Minnesota Timberwolves have plenty of scorers, and they should be able to score at will against a Pelicans team that is giving up almost 1.19 points per possession in their last 3 contests. Neither of these teams have anything to play for in this game, and I think that definitely is a positive for the over. The over is hitting at a 59% clip in NBA final games of the season in the past five years. No defense here. Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Toronto Raptors are sitting their best players tonight, but I still don't expect them to have any trouble scoring against the Nets. Brooklyn has been the worst defense in the NBA by a huge margin in the past 10 games. Brooklyn's tempo has picked up as well, and I don't see Toronto slowing the pace down with their backups tonight. Brooklyn is allowing 1.20 points per possession in their last three games. 

The over is 13-4 in the Nets last 17 home games. The over is 4-0 in the Nets last 4 games overall. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* These two offenses are really hitting the ball well in this series so far, and I see plenty of reason to believe that will continue in the series finale. Ubaldo Jimenez has a career 5.90 ERA at Fenway Park. Jimenez has a poor 4.69 ERA in April in his career as well, so he is a slow starter.

Joe Kelly has a career 4.65 ERA in the first half of the season (it is 3.48 in the second half), and the Red Sox starter has had serious problems against Baltimore. Kelly started three games against Baltimore last year, and he had a 7.71 ERA in those games. 

Big innings are always very possible with these two lineups, and these two starting pitchers have been victimized by those huge innings frequently in the past. 

The over is 3-0-1 in the Orioles last 4 road games vs. a right handed starter. The over is 4-0-1 in the Red Sox last 5 games vs. a team with a 60% or higher win percentage. The over is 8-0 in Kelly's last 8 home starts. The over is 6-0 in his last 6 starts vs. the AL East. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 6-0 in Kelly's last 6 starts after the Red Sox allowed 5 runs or more last game. A 31-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Seattle Mariners host the Texas Rangers on Tuesday night. Derek Holland had three bad outings against Seattle last year. Before that, he had been dominant against Seattle. Holland has quality stuff, and he has been lights out when pitching in Seattle. Holland has a career 2.39 ERA in Seattle. 

Wade Miley seems like a nice fit for Safeco. Miley is a fly ball pitcher and that's a good thing in a place with a big outfield like this one. Boston's Fenway Park hurt Miley last year, and he should fare much better in Seattle. 

The Rangers lineup is badly banged up right now, and Seattle's lineup is good in the middle, but it isn't very deep.

Doug Eddings is the umpire here, and no umpire has a bigger strike zone than Eddings. 

The under is 4-0 in the Mariners last 4 home games. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Detroit Tigers offense is going to score a lot of runs this year. A top five of Kinsler, Upton, Cabrera, Martinez, and Martinez is tremendous.

Pittsburgh's offense is an underrated offense. Obviously Andrew McCutchen is great, but Marte and Polanco are quickly turning into stars as well. The Pirates lineup is a very deep one.

Juan Nicasio has looked good this year so far, but facing this Tigers lineup is a very stiff test. I don't think he'll fare very well here. Anibal Sanchez isn't the pitcher he was a few years ago. The Pirates lineup will test him throughout.

The over is 8-0 in the Tigers last 8 vs. the NL Central. The over is 7-0 in their last 7 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 interleague games vs. a right handed starter. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 interleague home games. The over is 5-0 in Sanchez's last 5 home starts. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A 34-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Brooklyn Nets couldn't care less right now. Brooklyn is definitely playing out the string. Brooklyn is playing the worst defense in the NBA in the past month and it isn't even close. Brooklyn is allowing 1.14 points per possession in the past month. The Lakers are second worst at 1.12 points per possession. Clearly, Brooklyn is putting forth almost zero effort on defense now.

Brooklyn is without Brook Lopez and Thad Young for their final games. The Nets have played at a much faster tempo without these guys this year.

Washington will likely be without John Wall and Bradley Beal here, but they still have guys who can score. Morris was a key pickup, and he's been hot of late. Sessions and Thornton are pushing the pace in the Wizards backcourt as well. 

The early sharp money is piling in on the over here, and I have to agree with that. When these two met last week, the final was 121-103. With neither team caring to play defense, this should be very high as well. Take the over.