*3 Star Play Under* The Arkansas Little Rock Trojans have been very consistent at slowing the game down this year. This is their last home game, and I think they'll fight hard for this game. That should mean they work hard on the defensive end. 

Arkansas Little Rock has seen 12 of their last 16 games stay under this total. Georgia Southern has had 9 overs and 7 unders versus this line.

Little Rock's defensive numbers are better at home, and they have played two of their last three home games to the two slowest paced games they have played in the league all year.

This number has been steamed upward. In this case, I'm willing to fade the steam.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is the first game of the Atlantic Sun Conference tournament for these two teams. As a general rule, conference tournaments have been better to under players down through the years.

NJIT has decided to slow the tempo down in a big way in recent weeks. NJIT has been able to hold Lipscomb to a much slower tempo than Lipscomb usually plays in both of their meetings this season. I trust NJIT to try to keep the tempo low here once again. 

The first two meetings this year were 128 points and 150 points. The one that finished at 150 points saw 25 made three pointers between the two teams, and yet it still finished nine points below this total. 

Both of these teams turn the ball over quite a bit in the halfcourt sets, which definitely helps the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Western Carolina Catamounts take on the VMI Keydets square off in the regular season finale for both teams. These two are the worst two teams in the Southern Conference. 

Late in the year, when teams are still playing in the regular season and they are both bad teams, the over has to be considered. When the total is as low as this one, systems suggest the over has been a great play long term in this situation.

Why does this matter? Bad teams often try to slow the game down, but when it is your last regular season game and you are preparing for a conference tournament in the next few days, all rules are off. Usually that means less defense and a quicker pace. 

The first game between these two was 79-78. Western Carolina has been awful shooting the ball this year, but it appears VMI's defense is bad enough that anyone can shoot it against them. 

VMI pushes the pace, and they are good enough on offense to score quite a few here.

Take the over. 

*3 NCAA BB Sunday Night Total DOMINATION* The Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets meet in South Bend on Sunday night.

Georgia Tech beat Notre Dame 62-60 at home earlier this year. The Yellow Jackets made a buzzer beater in that one. Notre Dame is a big favorite here, and the Yellow Jackets offense has really struggled on the road. They are averaging only 0.92 points per possession on the road in the ACC.

Notre Dame definitely prefers to play a slow tempo, and Georgia Tech has played to the pace of their opponent this year. The first game was a very slow tempo throughout. 

Look for Notre Dame to get the lead and then take the air out of the ball late in the game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Toronto Raptors are going to look a lot different without Kyle Lowry on the floor. Toronto has been slowing down the pace lately even with Lowry, and I think they'll slow the game down even more without him. Lowry means so much to this team, and it would surprise me if they don't need some adjusting on offense without him.

Toronto has played at the single slowest tempo of anyone in the NBA in their last five games. That's an important statistic, and it means that a total like 213 is awfully high, especially when they are missing their point guard.

Portland's tempo is slightly slower than the league average, so there's no reason to expect any really fast pace in this game. 

This should be a game played in the halfcourt. Additionally, Sunday has been the best under day in the NBA in the long term by a large margin. 

I'll take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Cougars and Memphis Tigers met earlier this year and the game played to a 70-67 final in overtime. I expect this game to stay under the posted total as well.

Memphis and Houston are both solid on defense, and neither team has been getting to the line much at all. 

Memphis shoots too many shots from long range, where they haven't been efficient at all throughout the course of the season. Houston shoots the ball well, but their shooting percentages are much lower on the road than at home.

This line has been pushed up enough to where I see value on the under.

Take the under in this one. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Fort Wayne Mastodons play very fast. They are favored here by 7 points, and I think they'll be able to push the pace throughout this contest. 

Western Illinois is really bad defensively. Fort Wayne is just as bad. Both of these teams are allowing a ridiculous 1.12 points per possession inside Summit League play. 

Western Illinois is dead last in the country in 3 point field goal percentage defense. Fort Wayne is in the bottom 20 in the country in the same category. 

Both of these offenses shoot it at almost 40% from 3 point range. The first meeting saw the game go over the posted total as both teams lit it up from long range. Don't be surprised to see the same again here.

Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The UC Davis Aggies have a tremendous defense. They are allowing only 0.954 points per possession inside the conference. Long Beach State's offense is scoring 1.087 points per possession, but the 49ers struggled offensively vs. UC Davis at home earlier this year, and now they go on the road to face them again.

This is a key battle for two teams that have a lot to play for. Davis is tied for first in the conference and Long Beach is only 1.5 games back with three games to play. The more important the game, the more I like the under.

In the first game, the score was 55-55 before overtime, and it finished at 147 points total. This one is several points too high in my opinion. 

Take the under big. 

*3 Star Play Over* I don't normally like to play overs with Old Dominion, but this number is too low for me to pass up. Old Dominion has been quite a bit better on offense of late, and they are going against a terrible defense here.

Western Kentucky is allowing 1.11 points per possession. Old Dominion burned them for 79 points in their first meeting. Western Kentucky has allowed 72 points or more in 9 of their last 13 games. The Hilltoppers offense ranks 4th in Conference USA in efficiency, and they have several good jump shooters on their roster.

Late in the season, taking low overs with teams who aren't elite teams has been a great long term angle. I'll back that angle here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Southeast Missouri State has been very good on defense of late. They have allowed 67, 71, 61, and 69 points in regulation in their last four games. That is despite the fact that they have played two of the three best offenses in that span. They have been good defensively regardless of who they are against.

Austin Peay and SE Missouri State played to a 82-71 final a few weeks ago. The shooting numbers were much above average in that game, and yet the score stayed well under this total. The tempo was only 68 possessions.

SE Missouri State's changing defenses slowed the game down, and I think that will happen again.

This total is so high that I have to side with the under. This game will be relatively high scoring, but this is too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Baylor Bears have consistently been a great under team this year. Baylor is sixth in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Bears are in the bottom 20 in the country in terms of tempo as well.

Iowa State ranks near the middle of the pack in tempo. The first game between these two was 65-63.

Baylor has made it a habit of winning at Iowa State, where almost no one else wins. Iowa State should be hyped for this game. At the same time, Baylor should bring their best effort on defense.

This one is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Hurricanes have always wanted to play slowly. Miami has slowed down even more in recent games. Miami has played six of their last seven games to a pace of 63 possessions or slower. 

Duke has played 3 of their last 6 games to a pace of 63 possessions or slower. I don't think the Blue Devils will push the pace too much here.

This is an important game for both teams. They are fighting for positioning in the very tough ACC. Duke's defense has gotten better in recent games, but it still isn't all that good. Miami's offense really struggles with efficiency though.

These are two teams who don't foul much, and with a slow tempo and not much fouling, I'll take the under at this number.

Take the under. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Total of the Week* The Drake Bulldogs play faster than anyone else in the Missouri Valley Conference. Drake pushes the pace and plays some terrible defense. They are dead last in the MVC in defensive efficiency. That combination leads to much higher scoring games than we are accustomed to seeing in this conference.

Bradley plays at an average tempo, but they ran some with Drake in the first meeting. It finished at 151 points. The Braves get to the free throw line more than any other team in the conference, and their offense has gotten better over the course of the season.

Drake has consistently had higher scoring games than this in the MVC. Neither team has a lot to play for here, and that usually means more scoring.

I made this line 146 points, so I really like this play. At this kind of price, I see a lot of value here.

Take the over big. 

*3 Star TGIF NBA Play of Day* In the last three games before the NBA All Star Break, the Phoenix Suns played at the fastest pace of any team in the NBA by a wide margin. I don't see any reason to expect them to slow down after the break.

The Chicago Bulls and Phoenix Suns both rank in the bottom ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last ten games. These are two teams who are really struggling on the defensive end. 

Jimmy Butler is healthier now than he was the last time these two teams met. Dwyane Wade has been cleared to play, and he is expected to play in this game. 

The first game out of the All Star Break the over has cashed at better than 60% in the past three seasons. I look for the rested legs to help the shooting numbers here.

The last game between these two got to 212, and there were less free throws than normal. All things considered, I think this line is a little too low.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Loyola Marymount Lions and the San Francisco Dons played a game earlier this month. The final in that one was 74-64. Interestingly, both teams shot the ball horribly from the floor. They put up 0.97 and 0.84 points per possession in that game. Neither team could make their free throws at all in that one. It still edged over this total because they played at such a quick pace.

If these teams want to play at a quick pace, I have to take the over in this contest. You have to assume they'll shoot the ball better than they did in the first game. For the year overall, both are averaging about 1.04 points per possession.

I had this number at 142, and I think this one is a good value at this price.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Long Beach State 49ers are second in the Big West in tempo. They are first in the Big West in offensive efficiency. Guess who is last in the Big West in defensive efficiency. It is their opponent in this game- Cal Poly. 

The first game between these two was 89-89 at the end of regulation. I don't expect this one to be that high, but I do think it goes over this total.

The spread sits at eight points, which is a perfect fouling margin for the end of the game if it comes to fruition. Cal Poly fouls more than any other team in the Big West, and Long Beach State should live on the line here. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* South Florida has the worst defense in the conference. Tulsa isn't a good offense, but they are better on their home court. They should be able to take advantage of this poor South Florida defense.

One thing Tulsa does well is get to the line. They are first in the conference in trips to the free throw line. South Florida fouls more than any other team in the conference. The trips to the line should add up quickly for Tulsa.

South Florida is playing faster than anyone in the conference since Murray Bartow took over as their interim coach. The Bulls pushed the pace to a whopping 78 possessions in their loss at home to Tulsa earlier this year. 

With the tempo expected here, I have to play the over at this number, even though there is a chance the shooting numbers won't be great. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Totals TKO* The Detroit Pistons have decided to play faster as of late. For the season, they rank in the bottom five in tempo in the NBA. In their last ten games, they are playing at almost exactly the league average in pace. 

Charlotte is playing faster as well. They are in the top ten in the NBA in tempo in their last ten games. Charlotte's offense has been really inefficient of late, but I expect the All Star Break to have helped them out here.

In the last three years, the over is hitting at 60.6% in team's first game back from the NBA All Star break. It makes sense to me. No defense is played at the All Star Game, and that has some follow through. Additionally, the players are better rested and that helps bring higher shooting percentages.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star NBA System POWER Play* The Orlando Magic scored 79 points in their final game before the NBA All Star break. That sets up a really nice system play on the over in this game. 

Teams who are at home and scored 80 points or less in their last game and went under the total in that game, are a good over play in the next game. When that next game is a non-divisional game as this one is, the over is 162-100 in the last ten years (61.8% overs). 

Essentially, this is a system that looks to play overs when a team is coming off a terrible offensive effort. It doesn't hurt that both of these teams rank in the bottom six in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last ten games either.

In the last three years, the over is hitting at 60.6% in team's first game back from the NBA All Star break as well. It makes sense to me. No defense is played at the All Star Game, and that has some follow through. Additionally, the players are better rested and that helps bring higher shooting percentages.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Admittedly, it seems a little strange to be betting an over when the first meeting between these two teams was 57-55. Still, I see plenty of reasons for playing the over.

UTSA has been picking up their tempo gradually throughout the course of the season. The Roadrunners are also fouling much more in recent games. If FIU leads late in this game, UTSA has proven they will foul endlessly in late game situations and that can pile up the points fast. 

FIU is the worst defense in the conference. UTSA doesn't shoot it well overall, but they'll get a bunch of open looks against this defense. FIU has also played much quicker of late. 

In FIU's last 8 games, only one of them has stayed below this posted total. UTSA has played three straight games over this posted total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oklahoma State Cowboys have slowed their pace down some of late, and I suspect that is why some money has come in on the under. Still, Oklahoma State is easily first in the Big 12 in offensive efficiency and last in the conference in defensive efficiency.

Kansas State is first in the conference in trips to the free throw line. Oklahoma State has fouled more than any other team in the conference. Kansas State and Oklahoma State are both really poor on the defensive glass, and I expect a lot of second chance points in this game.

The first meeting was 96-88. The pace in that game was 75 possessions. If they play that quickly again, it would take some really bad shooting to not reach the total here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Drake Bulldogs have the worst defense in the Missouri Valley Conference. They also play at the fastest pace of any team in the league. That obviously means they can give up some pretty big point totals.

Drake has allowed 82 points or more seven times in Missouri Valley Conference play. The Bulldogs are giving up 1.12 points per possession on the year. Only twice in conference play has Drake played a game at a tempo of less than 68 possessions. 

Loyola Chicago doesn't play very fast, but they are really efficient on offense. They aren't very good on defense either. 

The first game between these two was 102-98. This one won't get close to that point, but it doesn't have to. 

Loyola's efficient offense and Drake's fast paced style of play should be able to get us past this posted total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Bradley Braves aren't a good team, but they are a lot better than they were last season. Bradley's biggest struggle on the offensive end is with turnovers. They are much better offensively when they play against teams who don't force many turnovers. Missouri State is one of those teams. In fact, Missouri State is last in the Missouri Valley Conference in forced turnovers this year. 

Missouri State has been pretty good offensively in the league this year. The Bears have been shooting it well from long range. Missouri State has been a good over team for the last couple years in the MVC.

The over is 14-3 in Missouri State's last 17 road games. The over is 21-7 in their last 28 MVC games. 

I don't see a high scoring game here, but this total is a few points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* This wasn't necessarily a game I intended to play the over on, but this number is too low. Indiana State has one of the worst defenses in the Missouri Valley Conference. The Sycamores are allowing 1.046 points per possession on the year. They also play at the second fastest pace of any team in the league.

Northern Iowa is obviously a team that slows the game down and has low scoring games, but even with that being the case, 10 of their games inside the conference have gone over this low total.

Both teams are coming off much worse shooting performances than their season average. I have a system where I play the over when both teams are coming off bad shooting performances. There aren't a bunch of plays like this, but it has hit 56% in the past ten years.

Take the over. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play Big 12 Game of Week* The Baylor Bears are tremendous at controlling the pace of the game. The Bears are 328th in the country in tempo out of 351 teams. They are the slowest paced team in the Big 12.

Baylor is also the best defense in the Big 12, and it isn't even close. The Bears are allowing opponents to score only 0.91 points per possession for the year overall. 

Baylor has played seven home games in the Big 12, and zero of them have gone over this posted total. I don't see any reason to expect this one to go over the total.

Earlier this year Baylor beat Oklahoma on the road 76-50. The tempo was only 63 possessions so Baylor definitely got their way as far as the pace. 

Oklahoma is without their best player, Jordan Woodard, and he is out for the year with an injury. The Sooners don't have many good scoring options.

Oklahoma scored 92 points last game against Oklahoma State, but Oklahoma State has the worst defense in the Big 12, and Baylor is at the top of the charts. I think this line has been inflated by that Oklahoma offensive performance last game.

The spread here is 13 and a late fouling fest is certainly less likely with this kind of spread. 

My numbers had this game at 134 points. I like this under a lot.

Take the under big. TOP Rated play. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Eastern Michigan Eagles and Ball State Cardinals both like to push the tempo. Eastern Michigan ranks 43rd in least amount of time used on their average offensive possession. Ball State ranks 75th in the country in the same category. That puts both teams in the fastest 20% of teams in the country.

Ball State is great from 3, and this Eastern Michigan zone is susceptible to teams who shoot the 3 ball really well. Ball State has scored 115 and 88 points in their last two games against this Eastern Michigan defense.

Eastern Michigan fouls a bunch, and Ball State is great at the free throw line also. The expectation here should be that both teams will get to the line a lot thanks to aggressive defense and a lot of offensive boards in this contest.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LaSalle Explorers are healthy once again. Pookie Powell is one of the team's two best players, and when he was out their offensive production suffered. Powell is back and this offense is a really efficient group. They face a tough defense here, but Rhode Island's fouling problems should mean that LaSalle will still put up quite a few points.

Rhode Island's Jarvis Garrett is now back in the lineup as well, and he is one of the team's best shooters. Garrett gives the team another very good long range shooter. The Rams have shown a willingness to run with the fastest paced teams in the conference, and LaSalle likes to run.

This total was knocked down after the open, and it got to a low enough level that I will take the over here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Troy has the number one ranked offense in the Sun Belt. They also have the worst defense in the league. That means that despite their pace being pretty average, Troy has had some really high scoring games through the season.

Appalachian State is a really poor defense as well, and they push the tempo in a big way. In their last 3 games, the Mountaineers are averaging 78 possessions per game, which is extremely quick.

Both of these teams excel when it comes to getting to the free throw line. A bunch of points from the charity stripe here should come as no surprise. 

I had this number at 162. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets haven't allowed more than 65 points in a conference home game all year. That is an extremely impressive feat when you consider they have played Notre Dame, Florida State, North Carolina, and Louisville all at home in ACC play. 

Josh Pastner's team isn't good on offense, and they are trying to slow the game down to win low scoring games. The inefficiency of the GA Tech offense can really hurt them if they get in uptempo games.

Syracuse prefers a slower pace and they are unlikely to find it easy going on offense here. 

Take the under in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UNLV Runnin' Rebels offense is horrendous this year. UNLV was only able to muster 51 points in their home loss to San Diego State earlier this year. They might struggle to get many more than that here.

San Diego State is playing better defense in recent weeks, and Steve Fisher's team always gives great effort on that end of the floor.

San Diego State controls the tempo and UNLV isn't even trying to push the pace now because of their offensive struggles and short bench.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Indiana State Sycamores are coming off their worst shooting game of the year. The Sycamores made only 3/15 three point attempts last game. They made only 17/49 shots overall. 

Indiana State isn't a good offense, but they fit into a nice system here where a team often bounces back and shoots much better in their next game, especially when that game is at home.

Southern Illinois has been playing with more confidence on offense of late. Indiana State ranks as the second worst defense in the MVC as far as efficiency.

I like this one to go over the total. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Midnight MADNESS* The UC Irvine Anteaters are tremendous on defense. UC Irvine is allowing only 0.94 points per possession inside Big West play. UC Irvine is playing against the worst offense in the Big West here. UC Riverside is scoring only 0.905 points per possession on the year.

Riverside has been held in the 50's many times this year, and I'll be surprised if they score more than 55-57 points here. 

Irvine slows the pace down and they have shown to be willing to take the air out of the ball and use clock when they have the lead. Everything points to them winning comfortably here, which only helps the under.

While only 45% of the bets are on the under, 61% of the money is on the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Late Night SMASHER* The Cal State Fullerton Titans and UC Davis Aggies meet late tonight. 

UC Davis is the best defense in the Big West. They are giving up only 0.925 points per possession in the Big West. They are playing a Fullerton offense here who ranks in the bottom 50 in the nation in offensive efficiency.

While Davis is really good on defense, they are averaging only 0.9875 points per possession on offense, so they aren't good there. 

The tempo will be relatively quick here, but both teams are far better on defense than offense.

I think the strong defenses keep this under in a tight game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tennessee State Tigers are allowing only 0.99 points per possession on the year. Tennessee State held Eastern Kentucky to 49 points on the road earlier this year. Now, Tennessee State hosts Eastern Kentucky.

Eastern Kentucky and Tennessee State both prefer a slow pace, so I expect this one to be played at a slow pace. The first game was played at 64 possessions. This should be similar. At that tempo, both teams would have to shoot much higher than their normal percentage from the floor to get past this total.

Tennessee State's defense should get us this under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Murray State Racers have been shooting the ball really well in conference play. Murray State excels at the free throw line, and they'll get a bunch of trips to the line when they play a team like Eastern Illinois.

Eastern Illinois using a really aggressive defense and they are whistled for a bunch of fouls. Eastern Illinois has sped up their pace of play inside the conference. Murray State plays at the quickest tempo of any team in the conference. 

The first game went to 155 points with the two teams shooting just barely below their season averages. I had this game at 156 points.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma Sooners are without their best player, Jordan Woodard, who will miss the rest of the year with an injury. Oklahoma has to slow the tempo down here. They know they can't win a high scoring affair with a team like Oklahoma State. Lon Kruger is a good coach who will instruct his team to slow things down here.

Oklahoma State has become much more deliberate in recent weeks. The Cowboys have played multiple games at a pace of 65 or slower of late, where earlier in the year they were playing at a pace of 80 or even faster at times. It is hard for the oddsmakers to keep up with this change.

The first game between these two didn't get even close to this number. I had this one at 150 points.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* I don't like playing overs that are this high, but I have to take this game. Central Michigan ranks fifth in the country in tempo and they are loaded with great shooters. Ball State is a great shooting team as well. 

These two played to a 181 point final recently and I think this one gets to right about 180 points as well. Both of these teams are terrible on defense, so we can expect some really good shooting percentages.

Combine those strong shooting percentages with the very quick pace that both play and you see a very high scoring contest.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The North Texas Mean Green rank 318th out of 351 in the country in effective field goal percentage. UTSA ranks 349th out of 351 teams. The tempo here will be a little quicker than I normally would like with an under 140, but given the way these two teams shoot the ball I have to take a chance on the under at this number. 

I had 135 here. UTSA is one of the better defenses in the conference, and I expect North Texas to struggle as they are short handed for this game. UTSA has shot the ball extremely poorly on the road this year, and there is no reason to expect different here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The first game between these two was 73-68. The shooting numbers for the two teams were fairly average. Kansas got the tempo to be a little quicker than Baylor would like.

In this spot, I think Baylor is able to slow the game down a lot better on their home floor. Baylor got the tempo they wanted at home against Kansas last year in a 66-60 game. I'm not suggesting this game will be that low scoring, but I do think it will be under this total.

Baylor ranks sixth in the country in defensive efficiency. The Bears have been tremendous defensively at home, and they are coming off a poor defensive effort. Look for a strong defensive effort from them in this game. 

I had this game at 140. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Bearcats have slowed their tempo back down in recent games. Cincinnati is by far the best defense in the conference. The Bearcats are allowing only 0.89 points per possession in the conference. That ranks among the five best defenses in the country. 

Tulsa struggles with offensive efficiency, and the Golden Hurricane have been slowing down the action of late. I don't expect any pace war here, because I think both will want to play slow.

A few weeks ago these two played a game that finished at 112 points with a very slow tempo of 59 possessions. We have a lot of points to work with compared to that first game, and I see Tulsa struggling to score here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Early Bird Special* The NC State Wolfpack are allowing a whopping 1.20 points per possession in ACC play. This team isn't even trying on defense, and that's what got Mark Gottfried fired. 

Notre Dame ranks in the top 15 in the country in offensive efficiency. The Fighting Irish have a bunch of good shooters, and NC State is allowing opponents to shoot 42.5% on 3 pointers in ACC play. Notre Dame should find a lot of open looks here.

NC State still has a talented offense led by Dennis Smith. The Wolfpack have been playing really fast of late and they should get out and run against a mediocre Notre Dame defense here.

I had this number at 162. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star College Hoops Play of Day* The Princeton Tigers have decided to slow their tempo down in a big way. Princeton has dealt with a bunch of injuries this year, and their depth isn't good at all. The team has slowed down out of necessity. It is working very well.

Princeton ranks first in the Ivy League in defensive efficiency by a wide margin. The Tigers have played 8 games in the Ivy League and only one of them has gone over this total. 

Yale ranks third in defensive efficiency in the Ivy League. The Bulldogs have been playing pretty fast lately, but I think it is because of who they have been playing against. In 4 of their last 5 games, they have played the teams in the league that want to push the tempo. They face a very slow paced opponent here.

This should be a tight game and this is a solid rivalry where defense usually improves. I had this game at 132 points.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oakland Golden Grizzlies aren't the same team they have been in recent years. In the past, they were a team who could never get a stop and they always were great on offense.

Oakland is 230th in the nation in offensive efficiency this year. Their jump shooting has been very poor. Oakland is 60th in the country in defensive efficiency, so they are much improved on this end of the floor. 

Valparaiso ranks first in the league in defensive efficiency, and Oakland torched their defense in the first meeting this year. I have a feeling Valpo comes ready to play on defense in this one. The Crusaders aren't likely to run with Oakland here. They want a halfcourt game. 

This one has been bet up a few points to where I see value here. Both defenses have the upper hand.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Titans have been pushing pace much more in recent weeks. This is a team that was so bad in their halfcourt defense that the coach had to change to a fullcourt press to try to get steals and easy scores. 

Detroit has seen 6 of their last 7 games go to 163 points or higher. The Titans now play against a team who also likes to run in UIC. The Flames haven't been great on offense on the year, but they do shoot the three ball well. Detroit is terrible at guarding shooters beyond the arc. 

On the other side, UIC has seen 4 of their last 5 games go above this posted total, so they are a high scoring team as well. 

This one got bet down as most high totals do, but it is has given too much value on the over for me to pass it up. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The UConn Huskies and Memphis Tigers are similar teams in that they are better on the defensive end than the offensive end of the floor. UConn racked up some amazing numbers on offense against South Florida twice that skews their league average, but overall they are a mediocre or worse shooting team.

Memphis is averaging 0.977 points per possession on offense. The Tigers shoot 29.6% from 3 point range, and they have been taking too many long range jumpers of late. Memphis is only giving up 0.946 points per possession in the conference though, and they are definitely one of the best defenses in the league.

UConn likes to play at a slow tempo, and Memphis typically plays to the pace of their opponent. The first game between these two finished at 131 points with a slightly quicker tempo than expected. I think things slow down a bit here and I had this at 128 points.

Take the under.  

*3 Star NCAA Hidden GEM Total* I respect the money a lot more in small conference games where the public won't be betting. In this game, 75% of the tickets are on the over, but a whopping 99% of the money is on the over. 

Nebraska Omaha plays at the 9th quickest tempo of any team in the country (out of 351 teams). Oral Roberts ranks 94th in the nation in tempo, so they are willing to run as well. This one should be a track meet. The first game between these two was 103-86. While this one probably won't be that high, I do like it to go over the total.

These two defenses are awful. Omaha is allowing a whopping 1.117 points per possession in the conference. Oral Roberts is allowing a ridiculous 1.149 points per possession. Both offenses should be efficient here.

Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The TCU Horned Frogs host the Oklahoma State Cowboys in a Big 12 showdown. These two teams are both right on the fringe of the NCAA Tournament. This game means a lot to both teams. The more important the game is, the more likely it is to be low scoring. 

TCU has to slow down the tempo in this game, and I think they'll do that from the start. The Horned Frogs have slowed things down recently, and they don't want to get into a track meet with Oklahoma State.

The first game between these two was 89-76, but both teams shot over 90% from the free throw line and there was quite a foul fest in the second half. Additionally, both teams shot well over their conference averages from the floor.

I expect these numbers to normalize and I had this total at 154 points. 

Take the under big. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Bradley Braves are terrible on offense. The only way they can consistently score is by getting to the free throw line. Northern Iowa commits by far the fewest fouls of any team in the Missouri Valley Conference.

Northern Iowa played poorly in the middle of the season, but they are playing very well now thanks to some tremendous defense. This is a team that is routinely allowing 50 to 55 points per game, and now they are playing the worst offense in the MVC.

Northern Iowa is great at grabbing the lead and then slowing the tempo of the game down. The Panthers should lead from the start and win with suffocating defense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Indiana State Sycamores have one of the worst defenses in the Missouri Valley Conference. Loyola Chicago also has one of the worst defenses in the conference. In fact, these two teams rank second and third worst in the league in defensive efficiency.

Loyola is second in the league in offensive efficiency. Indiana State isn't very efficient on offense, but the Sycamores are second in the league in pace, and they'll get plenty of shots up here.

My numbers had this game at 143 points. 

While only 41% of the bets are on the over in this game, a whopping 95% of the money is on the over.

Take the over in this one. 

*4 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The San Antonio Spurs are playing with revenge from a surprising defeat at the hands of the Orlando Magic earlier this year. Though I do lean with the Spurs ATS here, I like the under better. 

San Antonio is easily first in the NBA in the past eight games in defensive efficiency. This team is playing some terrific defense right now. 

Orlando's offense ranks among the worst in the NBA in efficiency. The Magic have been much more efficient on the defensive end at home as well. 

Neither team likes to run, and the tempo here should stay much slower than an average NBA game. 

Over the years, when the Spurs are playing with revenge, the under has been a great play. The Spurs typically win and get their revenge by focusing on the defensive end of the floor. 

An important reason why I like this play is regression to the mean for the Magic in 3 point shooting numbers. Orlando shot 57% from long range last game and now they face a very good defense.

The under is 4-0 in the Spurs last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 6-0 in the Spurs last 6 after scoring 100 or more last game. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following a straight up win. The under is 4-0 in the Magic's last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record. A 19-0 angle. 

Take the under. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play Totals SMASHER* The South Florida Bulls have the worst defense in the American Athletic Conference. Cincinnati is much better on the offensive end than they have been in recent years. The Bearcats averaged only 1.06 points per possession two years ago. They averaged only 1.10 points per possession last year. This year they are averaging 1.132 points per possession. 

Cincinnati has shown a willingness to run up the score on the bottom of the AAC this year. They have played their two fastest paced games against Tulane and USF, the two worst teams in the conference. The Bearcats rolled to a 94-53 win over USF earlier this year.

USF just slowed down East Carolina to get their first win in the AAC, but slowing down this potent Cincinnati offense will be a much tougher task. 

Cincinnati will dominate the offensive glass here and get plenty of second chance points. USF is playing at the second fastest pace of anyone in the AAC. 

I had this number at 136. 

Take the over big. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The East Carolina Pirates have played only one home game this year that got above 140 points. East Carolina is a miserable team on offense, and they like to slow the game down. 

East Carolina has played poorly on defense on the road, but their defensive efficiency numbers at home are very good. The Pirates gave up 81 points at Temple as the Owls shot one of their best percentages of the season, but I don't think that will happen again here. East Carolina is coming off an embarrassing loss at USF, and the Pirates should be focused here.

The tempo of this game should be around 65 or 66 possessions, which makes this total too high. In fact, I had this number at 130. 

Take the under big. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Villanova Wildcats nearly lost their home game against DePaul earlier this year. Villanova built up a double digit lead in that game before winning by only 3. I think that means they will be more focused for this road game. 

Villanova is playing at a slower tempo on the road, and their shooting numbers have been lower away from home. The Wildcats have played two of their conference road games at 59 and 58 possessions. They will slow the pace down here.

DePaul isn't going to force the tempo against a team as good as Villanova. The Blue Demons are going to struggle to score here. Villanova being more focused should show up on the defensive end. This is a DePaul team that is dead last in offensive efficiency in the league. 

I had this game at 135 points. Villanova should grab the lead and slow things down.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Morgan State Bears rank 342nd in the nation (out of 351 teams) in offensive efficiency. The Howard Bison are even worse at 347th in the nation in offensive efficiency.

When these two get together on ESPNU on Monday night, I expect a really sloppy game. This isn't a game I'd recommend anyone to watch, but I do believe there is good value on the under. 

Howard and Morgan State both play very slowly. The pace in this game should be slow all the way. This is a rare television game for these two and often these smaller schools that get on television see lower shooting percentages than normal in these games because of nerves.

I had this one at 126. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Memphis Tigers are playing some tremendous defense this year. Memphis is allowing only 0.926 points per possession inside the American Athletic Conference. 

Temple is averaging only 0.994 points per possession in conference action. Memphis is averaging only 0.978 points per possession. These two offenses aren't efficient. 

Temple is shooting 32% from 3 point range in the conference and Memphis is shooting only 30%. Both defenses are holding opponents to 31.5% or lower from long range. It would be a surprise if these teams knock down a lot of long range jumpers.

Memphis has slowed their pace down dramatically in recent weeks. The Tigers have played 5 of their last 7 games significantly slower than their season average.

The first meeting between these two saw the total finish at 143 points even though both teams shot a much higher percentage from the floor than their season average. Things should level out here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cal State Northridge Matadors beat UCSB 78-57 at UCSB earlier this year. In that game, UCSB had their leading scorer in the lineup. Gabe Vincent is now out for the year with an injury, and UCSB's terrible offense has gotten even worse.

It has become a regular deal that UCSB struggles to get past 50 or 55 points. As long as Northridge has a little bit of class and lets up if they are winning big here, I don't see this one getting to this high total. 

I had 141 in this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Weber State Wildcats are averaging 1.195 points per possession inside the league. That's some amazing efficiency on the offensive end. For the year as a whole, Portland State is allowing 1.10 points per possession, and I think Weber State should get a lot of good outside looks with Jeremy Senglin and company.

Portland State plays at the fastest tempo of any team in the Big Sky Conference. The Vikings will push the pace here. Portland State should be able to get transition buckets in this one. 

Both teams are good at taking care of the ball and I think the offensive efficiency here will be high.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arkansas Razorbacks love to push the pace of the game. LSU is the same way. The first meeting between these two finished 99-86. They both shot the ball well,but it really shouldn't be a big surprise because of how bad the defenses are. 

LSU may be the worst major conference defense in the country. They are allowing 1.198 points per possession inside the SEC. Arkansas is one of the better offenses in the SEC, and they rank near the bottom of the conference in defensive efficiency as well. 

Arkansas presses and does a lot of fouling, and a lot of trips to the charity stripe should be expected.

It's a high number, but I had 168 here. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Gonzaga Bulldogs are unbeaten and number one in the country. They get a major test as they go to St. Mary's today. Gonzaga is certainly the better team, but St. Mary's is a really well-coached team, and they have a great home court advantage.

St. Mary's plays at the slowest pace of any team in college basketball. It's very rare to see a St. Mary's game with a total this high. The Gaels have to stall this game out and make it a low scoring game. They know they can't run with Gonzaga.

The first game finished 79-56 with a very slow tempo of 59. Gonzaga lit it up in the first game, and I can't imagine they will shoot it that well in this game. St. Mary's is only allowing 0.924 points per possession in the conference, and Gonzaga scored 1.34 points per possession in that first meeting. 

The Gonzaga defense ranks fourth in the nation in defensive efficiency.

My number here was 129. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The South Florida Bulls have the worst defense in the American Athletic Conference and it isn't even close. They are also playing at the fastest pace in the conference since interim coach Murray Bartow took over.

East Carolina and USF are both bad on offense, so there is certainly some risk to taking the over here, but this line is just too low for me to pass it up. Only one of USF's last ten games has stayed under this posted total, and most of them haven't even been close. 

East Carolina's offense should look a lot better than normal when playing against this terrible defense. I think this number should be in the mid 130's.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Hidden GEM Total* The Florida Atlantic Owls want to play faster with Michael Curry as their coach. He's talked extensively about how he wants his team to get out in transition and play quickly. Here's a great chance for them to do it. 

Rice ranks 24th in overall tempo so far this year. The Owls definitely will want to run, and they have been very efficient on offense. Rice shoots 40% from 3 point range, and they can pile the points up quickly.

In their lone meeting last year, Rice beat Florida Atlantic 90-85. Now, I'm not expecting a score that high in this game, but I do think this total is several points too low.

I see a tempo in the low to mid 70's and a high scoring game.

The over is 6-0 in Rice's last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The over is 24-10 in their last 34 Conference USA games.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The North Dakota Fighting Hawks are doing a great job forcing the tempo in their games of late. North Dakota hasn't had a game played at a tempo of less than 70 possessions since December 7. That's an impressive feat. North Dakota is averaging 73.5 possessions per game inside the Big Sky. 

Idaho enters having really figured things out on offense of late. Idaho has scored 89, 81, and 88 points in their last three games. The Vandals are shooting the ball much better this year than last, and they are also turning it over less times. 

Idaho generally slows people down on defense, but I expect North Dakota to continue to play fast. Idaho prefers to play quickly on offense. 

The Big Sky is a good over league in general because of the porous defenses. Look for this one to go over the total. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Baylor Bears are great at controlling the tempo. Baylor plays at the 13th slowest pace of any team in the country (351 teams). 

TCU plays to the pace of their opponent. Time and time again this year, TCU has ran with fast paced teams and slowed down against slow paced teams. One of the best examples of this is their 62-53 final against Baylor earlier this year. The tempo in that game was only 61 possessions.

I think this is about 4 points too high, and because of the consistency of Baylor's pace that is enough for me to take the under in this one.

Take the under. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play Totals CRUSHER* The Indiana State Syacamores host the Drake Bulldogs on Saturday. Drake plays at the fastest pace of any team in the Missouri Valley Conference. Indiana State ranks third in the league in tempo.

That is really important to note, because almost everyone in this conference wants to stall. In this case though, we get a rare chance for these two teams to play fast as they want to. The first meeting between these two teams finished 87-70 and with a blazing fast tempo of 79. The shooting was below average in that one and it still got more than 10 points above this total.

These two teams rank last and second to last in the MVC in defensive efficiency. Two bad defenses and a quick tempo should mean a game that sails over.

Take the over big. 

*4 Star College Hoops Total DOMINATION* The Dayton Flyers and Rhode Island Rams are both excellent on defense. Dayton is allowing only 0.9 points per possession inside the A 10, which ranks in the top ten in the country in conference play. Rhode Island is allowing only 0.95 points per possession, so they are excellent on defense as well.

The first meeting between these teams finished at 67-64. There were 23 points scored in the last four minutes because of some fouling, so the game was actually on a pace for an even lower total than that. The defenses played very well, and I expect them to play well again here.

Four of the last five meetings between these two have gone under this total. The one that went over finished at 141.

With the move up on the total, I'm glad to take the under in this one. There is too much value for me to pass.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Gonzaga Bulldogs have scored 88 points or more in 7 of their last 12 games. Gonzaga is just torching the nets on a nightly basis. They shouldn't have much trouble scoring against Loyola Marymount in this one either. 

Loyola Marymount allowed 93 points in their game at Gonzaga, and they recently allowed 85 to BYU. The Lions have picked up their pace of late. They played an 87 possession game against BYU (that's blazing fast). They also played a very fast 76 possession game last game against San Francisco. Gonzaga will be happy to run with Marymount, and the Bulldogs should be very efficient here. 

Gonzaga is averaging nearly 90 points per game on the road in WCC play. The Zags put up a big number here and Marymount does enough.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The SMU Mustangs have the 13th slowest tempo of any team in the country. SMU also ranks 24th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Mustangs are an undervalued team by many. 

Temple will give SMU a fight. The Owls have a good coach, and this team plays well on their home floor. I don't see Temple wanting to run very much here either.

A total set this high doesn't make much sense to me. I had this one at 136 points. I'm keeping this one to a 4 star play because I do worry a bit about Temple's defense playing a bit worse of late, but this is still a very solid value.

Look for a slow paced game where it would take very good shooting numbers to surpass this total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Elon Phoenix have played to the pace of their opponent all year long. Delaware ranks in the bottom 50 in the country in terms of tempo. The Blue Hens defense has been torched on the road all year, but they have been pretty good at home.

Elon ranks second in the CAA in defensive efficiency. The Phoenix should handle this weak Delaware offense nicely. Delaware is averaging only 0.95 points per possession on the year. 

This numbers was pushed up early by some steam, and I'll go against that steam here. My number for this game was 131 points.

I see this being a sloppy low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas A&M Aggies always look to slow down the tempo. They have played a bunch of opponents lately who push the tempo. They had high scoring games against LSU, West Virginia, and Ole Miss. That should be expected against those teams, but it has pushed up this posted total.

I think this number has reached the inflated level. Missouri shot much better than normal in their win over Arkansas last game. The Tigers should come back down to earth against a good Aggies defense.

Missouri toyed with running and gunning in the middle of the season, but their offensive tempo has slowed drastically in their last four games. I don't think they'll push the tempo enough to get this one over.

I had this at 132. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Seton Hall Pirates rank second in the Big East in defensive efficiency. The Pirates are also second worst in the league in offensive efficiency. Providence ranks third worst in the league in offensive efficiency.

The first time these two teams met the score was 65-61. The tempo in that game was only 63 possessions. Both of these teams prefer to slow the game down, and I think the pace here will be slow again. Unless they shoot an abnormally high percentage here, I think this stays under.

In 4 of their last 5 games, Seton Hall has scored 63 points or less in regulation. The Pirates are the favorites here, and I think they keep this game low scoring.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Clippers rank dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the past ten games. The Clippers are giving up 119 points per game in their last seven road games.

For the year as a whole, the Clippers are allowing 1.012 points per possession at home. They are allowing a stunning 1.097 points per possession on the road. That's one of the biggest differences in the NBA.

The Knicks are a mess right now. New York is actually slightly worse on defense at home than on the road. They are much more efficient on offense at home though. 

These teams both rank in the middle of the pack in tempo, but I see the offensive efficiencies being very high here.

The over is 6-1 in the Clippers last 7 games. The over is 18-9 in their 27 road games this year.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Baylor Bears take on the Oklahoma State Cowboys in a huge Big 12 showdown on Wednesday night. Baylor ranks sixth in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Bears held Oklahoma State to 57 points in their first meeting.

Oklahoma State was playing as fast as anyone in the country early in the season, but I've noticed a big change in their tempo in recent weeks. The Cowboys have averaged only 65 possessions per game in their last five games. For the season as a whole before this five game stretch, they were playing at a pace of slightly more than 72 possessions per game.

The first game between these two saw a tempo of only 59 possessions. Baylor played their normal slow pace and Oklahoma State let them do it. I don't see any reason to expect a fast paced game here. 

Both teams are pretty good on offense, but it would take some very good shooting numbers to send this over.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The South Florida Bulls are continuing to push the tempo under interim coach Murray Bartow. I've done well playing the over with South Florida since the coaching change, and I'm not going to stop in this spot. 

South Florida has allowed 79 points or more in 7 of their last 8 games. They have allowed 81 points or more in their last four in a row. 

UConn's offense was awful early in the year, but it has improved quite a bit of late. The Huskies are shooting it much better from long range. USF's 3 point defense is atrocious, and UConn made 12 threes the last time these two met. 

USF will push the pace and play bad defense, and with a number this low, I have to take the over.

Take the over in this one. 

*4 Star Play Under* The TCU Horned Frogs host the Texas Tech Red Raiders on Tuesday night. I think this total is inflated by several points. I expected a total released in the 137 area. The first game between these two saw better than average shooting and some late game fouling. That one got to 144 points. This one is nearly at that level. 

Texas Tech has played even slower of late. The Red Raiders have played 4 of their last 5 games to a tempo of 64 or slower. TCU has been a team that plays to the pace of their opponent so far this year, so I expect a fairly slow tempo in this game.

These two teams aren't very good at getting to the line, so it would be a surprise if there were a bunch of free throws here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Memphis Tigers prefer to push the tempo, but most teams in the AAC slow the game down. Tulsa also plays slightly faster than the average team in the league. The first meeting between these two teams was 81-71, and the game was played to a pace of 74, which is very quick.

I don't think they'll get to 74, but this pace should be 69 possessions or so, and at that kind of tempo, it takes some pretty bad shooting numbers to stay under 137 points. Both of these teams are very good at getting to the free throw line, and that helps us with the over. The spread here is 7-8 points, and that is the perfect late game fouling range if it does stay around the spread. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Ball State Cardinals defense has been terrible inside the MAC. In their last seven games, they have allowed a minimum of 77 points in each game. They have allowed 80 or more four times in that span. 

Akron is arguably the best offense in the MAC. The Zips are averaging 1.14 points per possession, and this team can light it up from outside. Ball State is allowing opponents to shoot 40.1% from long range so far this year. 

Ball State is really pushing the tempo. They are playing at 76 possessions per game in the MAC. They should keep the action moving in this one.

The sharp money really likes the over here. While 55% of the bets are on the over, 95% of the money is on the over. That kind of a split has a very good long term win percentage.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Play of Day* The Fairfield Stags rank 50th in the country in overall tempo. Fairfield changed the way they play last year. They had previously been a slow paced team, but picked up the pace in a big way. They have kept that quicker tempo going this year. 

Quinnipiac changed the way they play this year. The Bobcats are running as much as possible, and they rank 20th in the nation in terms of fastest pace. The Bobcats are an elite offensive rebounding team, but they send so many people to the offensive glass that they allow too many run out easy scores the other way. 

When these two get together the tempo should be extremely fast. 

The bets so far in this game are 50/50 on the over/under, but 96% of the money is on the over. That's a nice buy sign.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Play of Day* The Temple Owls offense has scored 74 points or more in 3 of their last 4 games. Temple has been able to score efficiently on the worst defenses in the American Athletic Conference this year, and USF is definitely one of those teams.

USF has allowed at least 79 points in each of their last five games. They have allowed 85 points or more in three of those five contests. The Bulls are very poor at guarding the 3 ball, and Temple ranks in the top 50 in the country in most 3's attempted.

USF is pushing the pace consistently since Murray Bartow took over as the interim coach. They have been an "over" machine in his time here too. I'm not jumping off here.

Look for this one to go several points over the posted total. USF games are still being posted too low.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UCSB Gauchos are dead last in the nation in effective field goal percentage. UCSB is shooting 26% from 3 point range and a miserable 39% from 2 point range in the league. 

UCSB is one of the 50 slowest paced teams in the country. They want to make this a sloppy low scoring game at home to have a chance.

UC Davis plays rather quickly, but they are the best defense in the Big West, and they are a poor offense. Davis held UCSB to 47 points in the first meeting.

I had this one at 130.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Southern Utah Thunderbirds are allowing almost 1.21 points per possession on the year. That is second worst in the country out of 351 teams. Idaho State isn't much better on defense. They are 340th in defensive efficiency out of 351 teams. They are allowing 1.17 points per game. 

Southern Utah has committed the third most fouls in the country, and Idaho State is pretty good at getting to the line. 

Both of these teams are terrible at defending beyond the 3 point arc, so don't be surprised if there are a bunch of made 3's in this game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* These two played two high scoring games last year even though both played a slower pace last season. Both of these teams are struggling badly on defense, and they both foul a bunch. With this being a rivalry game, the officials are likely to have a quick whistle to keep things under control. Expect a bunch of trips to the line in this one.

Both teams have a lot of good 3 point shooters, and I think they will get plenty of open looks throughout in this one. Look for a close game with the number of trips to the free throw line pushing this over the total.

Take the over. 

*5 Star CBB Saturday's TOP Total* The UTEP Miners have the top ranked defense in Conference USA. They are allowing only 0.92 points per possession. MTSU has the third best defense in the conference at only 0.942 points per possession allowed. 

UTEP is 235th out of 351 teams in the country in tempo, so they prefer to play slowly. MTSU is 332nd in tempo, so they are a very slow paced team this year.

The tempo should stay low here, and with two really good defenses, it would take some rare tremendous shooting or a bunch of fouls to send this one over the total. 

I had this one at 126 points. I expect a hard fought game that stays under the total.

Take the under big. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Tulsa Golden Hurricane aren't nearly as good on offense as they were last year. They are still very good on defense. Looking at the Cincinnati game from earlier this week gives us a good idea of how Tulsa wants to play against teams who are better than them. Tulsa wants to slow things down and make it a low scoring game. They don't have the offensive firepower to win games against the best teams in this conference if it is an 80-75 type game. 

Tulsa is also very reliant on getting to the free throw line, but SMU ranks in the top ten in the country in defending without fouling. The Mustangs should give Tulsa's offense a lot of trouble. 

SMU has been amazing on offense in general, but their numbers are quite a bit lower on the road. 

The under is 7-3 in SMU's last 10 road games. The under is 9-2 in Tulsa's last 11 as an underdog.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Quinnipiac Bobcats have been a good over team this year. They changed their tempo up from last year, and it has been hard for the oddsmakers to keep up. The Bobcats crash the offensive glass in a huge way. They get a bunch of second chance points, and they also give up a bunch of run out opportunities because everyone is crashing the offensive glass.

The first meeting between these two played out to a 81-78 final score. The numbers in that game were right about the averages for both teams, and I see a similar game here. I had this one at 160.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Eastern Kentucky Colonels are averaging only 0.934 points per possession in the Ohio Valley Conference. Eastern Kentucky is the second slowest paced team in the league. The Colonels are slowing things down because they just don't have the firepower to win games with their offense. Eastern Kentucky is third in the conference in defensive efficiency.

Tennessee Martin is the third slowest paced team in the conference and I project this pace at a slow mark of 67 possessions. 

Barring some very high shooting numbers, I like this one to stay under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* I played the over the first time these two met and it cashed comfortably. I'm going to play the over again here. Arkansas ranks 23rd in the country in quickest offensive possessions. Missouri is 86th in that same statistic. The first time these two got together the tempo was 73 possessions. I expect a similar tempo here.

In a game with that many possessions, it takes some really bad shooting numbers to not reach a total like this. Missouri definitely shoots the ball poorly, but both of these teams foul a bunch and both teams are good at getting to the line. Trips to the charity stripe should be a big help here. There were 54 free throws in the first matchup.

These two teams are 11th and 12th in the SEC in defensive efficiency, so the offenses will be going against much weaker defenses than normal. 

I have this one at 153.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Summit League is a conference where no one plays defense and everyone can shoot, but the top two offenses in the league are meeting in Denver here on Saturday. Denver is averaging a whopping 1.176 points per possession in league play. Fort Wayne isn't far behind at 1.165 points per possession.

These two met earlier this year and played to a 87-83 final score. They shot 44 and 42% from long range, but that is right about at their averages in league play. 

Also, there were only 26 free throws attempted in that first game. One would assume there will be more free throws than that in this game.

Quick tempo and two very good offenses.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* These are the two best defenses in the CAA. Elon is allowing 0.992 points per possession. College of Charleston is allowing 0.963 points per possession. These two played a game that finished at 120 points earlier this year. I had this one projected at 128. Charleston has had some higher scoring games lately, which pushed this total up. In those games, they were playing teams that wanted to run. Here, they play an Elon team that plays to the pace of their opponent. C of Charleston likes to slow the game down and should get their way with the pace. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Georgia Southern Eagles and Louisiana Monroe Warhawks met earlier this year and the final score was 62-60. I had the under in that one, and I'll take the under again here. If you look at Monroe's last 13 games, not a single one of them has gone over the posted total without going into overtime. This game isn't likely to go to overtime with GA Southern being a big favorite here. I had this one at 138. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* In this one, 13% of the bets are on the under, but 60% of the money is on the under. Eastern Illinois and Tennessee Tech are similar teams. Most of the teams in this conference push the tempo a lot, but these two prefer not to. The tempo should be kept down here, and neither team is very efficient on offense. I had this one at 139 points, and with the sharp money taking the under, I will as well. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UTSA Roadrunners do a great job of making everything really sloppy. They are dead last in the nation in 3 point shooting percentage. They make less than 1/4 of their attempted 3 point jumpers. Ouch. At the same time, UTSA is much improved on defense this year, and on their home floor they have been particularly strong on defense.

UAB started slowly on defense, but this team has been good on defense in previous years, and they are playing well on defense right now. 

Neither team pushes the tempo very much, and I had this number at 132.

Take the under. 

*5 Star CBB TOP Play Total* The Xavier Musketeers lost Edmond Sumner to an injury last weekend. He averaged 15 points per game, and was their leading assists man. In the team's lone game without him, they played at a slower than average pace, and their offense looked a bit out of sorts.

Maurice Watson Jr. is out for the season for Creighton. He was the star point guard for the team. Watson averaged 12.9 points per game and 8.4 assists per contest. Without him, Creighton is definitely playing at a slower tempo.

This line was bet up early, and that gives us more value. I had this number at 153. I see both offenses being a little out of rhythm, and with a total set this high, it doesn't take much. 

Take the under big. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oregon Ducks are averaging 1.171 points per possession inside the conference. Now, they get to play against the worst defense in the conference. Arizona State might have the worst defense of any team in Power 5 conference this year. 

Arizona State is giving up 1.188 points per possession in the PAC 12. I think Oregon will rack up 1.20 points per possession or higher here. Arizona State likes to push the tempo, and Oregon was willing to play fast with both USC and UCLA.

Oregon should put up a big number here. Arizona State's offense ranks 44th in the nation in efficiency, and they should get enough to push this past the total.

In this game, 65% of the bets are on the over and 93% of the money is on the over. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* This is somewhat of a contrarian play. This could be one of those rare games where the public actually backs the under. Oregon State has been playing slowly this year, and Arizona absolutely has a great defense.

The thing that makes me like the over here is Oregon State's defense. When facing an offense that ranks in the top 75 in the nation in points per possession, Oregon State has allowed 1.19 points per possession. That's about as bad as you'll see. 

Arizona's offense has scored 77 points or more in 5 of their last 6 games (73 in the other). With Trier back in the lineup, this Cats offense is dangerous. Look for them to find a lot of open looks here.

Oregon State's offensive numbers have gotten better in recent games. This is a young team that is getting slightly better guard play of late, and I think they get us enough here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UTSA Roadrunners are much better on defense this year. UTSA ranked 343rd in the nation in defensive efficiency last year. They are 110th in the nation in that same category this year.

MTSU is playing four possessions per game slower than they did last season. MTSU ranks 48th in the nation in defensive efficiency.

UTSA's offense is brutal. They are dead last in 3 point shooting percentage in the country. They rank 345th in offensive efficiency. I can't imagine them scoring many on MTSU here.

I had this number at 126.

Take the under. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play Totals CRUSHER* The Elon Phoenix host the James Madison Dukes here. Elon has been playing to the pace of their opponent all year long. James Madison is the slowest paced team in the CAA. The first meeting between these two finished at 60-59 and with a pace of only 59 possessions. 

Both of these teams rank in the bottom half of the league in offensive efficiency, while they are both in the top half in defensive efficiency. In the first game, the shooting numbers were actually just slightly above average, but the pace was so low that the score stayed way under the posted total.

Of James Madison's last 17 games, only 3 have gone above this posted total. Also, 8 of Elon's last 13 totals have stayed under this posted total.

My numbers had this one at 126. It's very rare I see a line this late in the year 8 points off my number. I like the under here quite a bit.

Take the under big. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Memphis Tigers and USF Bulls played a game a few weeks ago that finished at only 118 points. That has given us some good value on the over here.

What happened in the first game? The two teams shot their lowest field goal percentages of the year on a points per possession basis. There were also 41 turnovers. With statistics likely normalizing here, there is value on the over.

USF is playing completely differently under their interim head coach (Bartow). They were stalling earlier in the year, and now they are pushing the pace in a big way. USF has played 5 of its last 6 games to a tempo of 72 possessions or quicker. None of their 8 games before that was played to that tempo.

Memphis prefers to run and I think the Tigers can get out in transition here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* I don't normally fade the steam too often, but I have to in this case. This number has gotten out of hand.

Oakland is a different team than last year. Oakland averaged 1.17 points per possession last year. This year they are averaging 0.99 points per possession. This is a very inefficient offense without Kay Felder. Oakland is a lot better on defense too. The Golden Grizzlies had a terrible defense last year (1.06 points per possession), and this year they are second in the league in defensive efficiency at 0.972 points per possession. Oakland has only had 3 lined games go over this total all year.

Youngstown State definitely runs, but they aren't all that efficient either, and they are improved on defense compared to last year. In their last 8 games, only one has gone over this total in regulation.

I'll fade the steam. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The SMU Mustangs rank 337th out of 351 teams in the country in terms of tempo. This is a team that slows the game down drastically. East Carolina ranks toward the bottom in tempo too.

East Carolina is awful on offense. Their efficiency is about as bad as you'll ever find. East Carolina is averaging 0.846 points per possession inside the conference. 

SMU is going to grab the lead early here, and I like their ability to get a big lead and then slow the game down. They aren't a team who tries to run up the score by pushing the pace in any way.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Red Hot CASH* The Utah Jazz and Milwaukee Bucks both play at a very slow pace. Utah is the slowest paced team in the NBA for the year as a whole. Milwaukee plays more than 3 possessions slower on the road than they do at home, and Utah will look to control the tempo here. No reason to expect a quick pace.

The three referees assigned to this game are all very good long term under referees. Each of them has a history of calling less fouls than the average official, and they all have a long history in the league.

62% of the bets are on the under, but a whopping 90% of the money is on the under. I agree with the sharp money here.

Take the under.