*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Reds have the third highest weighted on base average in Major League Baseball in the last 14 days. They have been putting up some big numbers. Elly De La Cruz, Matt McClain, Spencer Steer and all the youngsters in this lineup have been contributing in a big way. Now, the Reds come home to the second most hitter friendly ballpark in the majors. 

Graham Ashcraft has been terrible of late for the Reds. Ashcraft has a 12.62 ERA in his last six games. He has been much worse at home throughout his career. San Diego's lineup has been inconsistent, but they should get a lot of scoring chances here.

Seth Lugo is a mediocre pitcher, and I expect him to have a lot of traffic on the bases here too.

A game time temperature of 91 degrees with a very slight breeze blowing out means the conditions here are great for runs.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston Red Sox have gotten a bit banged up, and their offense has really struggled of late. Yoshida has missed the last two games, and he is questionable for this one. Boston has scored two runs or fewer in four of their last six games. 

Jesus Luzardo is a young pitcher with great stuff. He has a 3.77 ERA and a 3.42 FIP on the season. Luzardo has just 7 walks and 55 strikeouts in his last eight starts. 

Brayan Bello starts for the Red Sox. He has really rounded into form of late. In his last five starts, he has a 2.35 ERA and a 2.60 FIP. Bello was a very highly touted prospect, and he seems to be figuring it out. 

While both teams have been slightly above average on offense in the last 14 days, they are 1st and 3rd in the majors in batting average on balls in play. Miami is at .355 and Boston at .339 during that time. Those numbers will regress toward the mean. 

Stu Scheurwater is the home plate umpire in this one, and he has a very high strikeout/walk ratio which suggests he is helpful to the pitcher. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Both the Cincinnati Reds and the Baltimore Orioles are above average for the season when it comes to weighted on base average against left handed pitching. Both of these teams have been red hot offensively of late in general too.

Cincinnati has scored 5 runs or more in 11 of their last 12 games. The Reds young nucleus of hitters has turned this into a really deep lineup with a rare combination of speed and power. Elly De La Cruz gets much of the attention and it is well deserved, but Matt McClain and Spencer Steer are stars as well. Joey Votto has looked good in his first week back in the majors too.

The Reds pitching staff is badly shorthanded now with injuries. Brandon Williamson has an ERA above 5 and has been allowing far too many baserunners. 

The Orioles start Cole Irvin here. Irvin has a 7.71 ERA and his xERA is even higher at 8.91. His FIP is 5.41. He is clearly a below average left hander. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tampa Bay Rays are first in the majors in weighted on base average. The Rays have worked the count consistently on starters and gotten to the bullpen in early. 

Kansas City starts Daniel Lynch and then the bullpen behind him is very weak. Lynch is a lefty who has had quite a bit of trouble keeping the ball in the park. The Rays should get to him.

Tyler Glasnow starts for the Rays. He's clearly not himself and he has been working from behind in the count too often.

Mark Wegner is the home plate umpire here. He has the lowest strike/walk ratio of any umpire in the majors in the last five years. He's a clear help to the over.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Reds have won 12 straight games. It's thanks in large part to their offensive explosions of late led by a bunch of great youngsters. De La Cruz, McClain, Steer, and company have been fantastic. They are now getting a big boost from Joey Votto now that he is back in the lineup. This is clearly an above average lineup now. 

The Atlanta Braves have the best lineup in baseball in my opinion. This is a deep lineup that is excellent against both right handers and left handers. They hit for both power and average. Atlanta has scored 8 runs or more in six of their last nine games. They have scored 10 runs or more in three of their last five. 

The Reds have scored 8 runs or more in four of their last six games. Cincinnati is up against a mediocre lefty in Shuster in this one.

Ashcraft has been the Reds worst pitcher of late. He has ugly splits at home in his career.

A high temperature of 87 degrees and winds blowing out at 6 mph are a help too.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Nationals have a .310 OBP against right handed pitching. They have a .335 OBP against left handed pitching. They are up against a mediocre left hander in Tommy Henry here. In limited action against him, the Nationals have hit him well. 

Jake Irvin starts here for the Nationals. Irvin is one of my lowest rated starting pitchers in the majors. Irvin ranks in the bottom 6% of all pitchers in walk rate. He also ranks in the bottom 1% of all pitchers in whiff rate. That's a really bad combination. 

The Nationals are 7th in wOBA at home this year. The DBacks are 3rd in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching.

I think both teams will see plenty of scoring chances here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Brewers start Freddy Peralta here. Peralta has drastic home/road splits in his career. Peralta has a career WHIP of 1.024 at home and a WHIP of 1.329 on the road. His ERA is 3.50 in day games in his career as well. He faces a Pirates team that has been much stronger especially of late against left handed pitching. The Pirates have scored three runs or fewer in five of their last seven games. 

Luis Ortiz is an inconsistent starter. He is certainly capable of getting hit hard, but the upside is very real too. Ortiz has been wild so far this year and that has hurt him quite a bit. He should be helped a lot by home plate umpire Doug Eddings. 

Eddings has consistently been a top two or three under umpire in baseball for many years. In Eddings last 68 Sunday games behind home plate (get away type games in many cases with early starts) the under is 46-22. His strikes called percentage is very high annually. He should help both pitchers here. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The weather in this game calls for wind blowing in about 12-15 mph from left center field. That should be a nice boost at Citi Field, which is already ranking in the top 5 pitcher's parks in the majors this year according to park factors.

Kodai Senga has a 1.93 ERA and a .250 weighted on base average allowed at home on the year. The Cardinals offense has scored three runs or fewer in four of their last five. The bottom of their order has really been holding them back in a big way.

Adam Wainwright is far from the pitcher he once was, but the Mets offense is definitely a level worse without Pete Alonso in the middle of the order.

Home plate umpire Shane Livensparger's games are 30-18 to the under in the last couple seasons. He has a high strikeout/walk ratio of 3.03 so far this year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago White Sox are 29th out of 30 teams in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Seattle Mariners are 22nd out of 30 teams in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. 

Michael Kopech started the year pitching poorly, but he has really coming into his own of late. In his last five starts, Kopech has 5 walks and 44 strikeouts. He has a 1.72 ERA and a 2.57 FIP in those five starts.

Bryan Woo was very good in the minors and he is coming off a good start against the Angels. Woo is backed by a good bullpen for Seattle.

This is a top three or four pitcher's park in the majors. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Gerrit Cole is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Cole has a 2.64 ERA and a 3.69 FIP. Cole has fantastic numbers against the Mets lineup. How good? Cole has a .242 weighted on base average against the current Mets players in 107 plate appearances. 

Justin Verlander has been really inconsistent this season. He has either been great or terrible. Verlander is coming off a really poor start against the Braves. I think this is a good bounce back spot for him.

Both Aaron Judge and Pete Alonso are out with injuries right now. Those are the two best offensive players in this matchup.

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire. He has the highest strikeout/walk ratio of any umpire in the majors over the last five years. Miller is calling more than 66% of pitches a strike this year.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Brewers are dead last in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. While JP Sears isn't an excellent lefty by any means, he is a a young lefty with good stuff and high potential. The Brewers could find it tough going against him on Sunday. 

Freddy Peralta has drastic home/road splits. Peralta has 3.41 ERA at home and an ERA over 6 on the road this year. He's also against an Oakland A's offense that is dreadful against right handed pitching. I like Peralta's chances of getting back on track in this one. The Brewers bullpen is still an above average one too.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Angels start Patrick Sandoval in this one. Sandoval can be dominant at times, but he does have some poor games as well. In this one, I do like the matchup for him. Sandoval has a good history against the Seattle batters he has faced through his career thus far. Importantly, Seattle is 27th in wOBA against left handed pitching on the season. The Mariners have the fourth worst strikeout percentage against lefties too, and Sandoval is a high strikeout type lefty starter.

Woo starts for the Mariners. There isn't a long history on him and he appears to be an average prospect for the Mariners. The Angels are a bit shorthanded in the lineup right now. LA is a much better team against lefties than righties as well.

Phil Cuzzi is a top five under umpire in the majors. He consistently has had extremely high strikeout/walk ratios of 3 or higher. So far this year 9 of his 11 games behind the plate have stayed under the total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians have one of the worst offenses in baseball. Cleveland is second worst in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. Cristian Javier is one of the better right handed pitchers in the American League. Javier has great control and his curveball is a major weapon. 

Logan Allen is a highly rated youngster for Cleveland. The left handed Allen has a 2.76 ERA and a solid 3.22 FIP. The Astros are a talented lineup, but they are likely to be without Yordan Alvarez here after he was injured early in last night's game. Houston has scored two runs or fewer in four of their last five games.

These two of the top eight bullpens in baseball. It should be tough to get a lot of scoring chances in this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Game two went over the total because both teams shot the ball lights out. It still only finished at 219 points. The Heat made 17 three pointers and the Nuggets shot 52% from the floor. Miami scored a ridiculous 1.291 points per possession and the Nuggets scored an above average 1.241 points per possession. 

The pace of the game was a very slow 86.5 possessions. Miami has clearly decided to try their best to slow the pace of this series down. It worked in game two. They'll likely do it again here, and I don't think we can assume the shots will keep falling at this rate either.

This is pivotal game for both teams. It was assumed the Nuggets were going to roll to a win after game one and the first half of game two. Denver did some sleepwalking on defense in the fourth quarter of Game 2. I wouldn't think that will happen again. The Heat are an above average defense and they have decided to let Jokic score and try to cut down on his assists.

I like this one to be a tighter lower scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Nationals offense has been really good against left handed pitching this year. Washington is 4th in the majors in OBP at .356 against lefties. Tommy Henry has a 3.73 ERA, but a 5.21 FIP on the season. Henry has allowed just a .244 BABIP so far this year. He isn't likely to be able to keep that up. Henry ranks in the bottom ten percent of all pitchers in the majors in strikeout rate too.

Washington starts Jake Irvin here, and I believe he is one of the worst starting pitchers in the majors. Irvin has a 5.67 ERA and a 5.80 FIP on the season. He ranks in the bottom one percent of all pitchers in the majors in whiff rate. His xERA is 5.99. The Diamondbacks have had a top eight offense against right handed pitching all year.

Washington's bullpen is bottom three in the majors. Arizona's bullpen is worse than an average bullpen as well.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Oakland A's offense is just terrible. Oakland has scored two runs or fewer in 12 of their last 14 games. Oakland is decent against left handed pitching, but they are awful against right handed pitching. No other team is even close to as weak as Oakland's lineup against right handed pitching. 

Eury Perez is a very highly touted prospect for the Marlins. He's a tall right hander with overpowering stuff who should rack up the strikeouts in the big leagues in his career. Perez gets a favorable matchup here.

Medina starts for the A's here. While his numbers aren't good thus far, he has pitched pretty well in the minors as well. He has a small sample size in the majors and was hit hard by the Astros and Angels, two very good lineups who are clearly several notches better than the Miami lineup. 

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire here. He is clearly a top two or three under umpire. His called strikes rate and strikeout/walk rate are consistently among the very highest in the majors. He should help both pitchers here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Marlins have been very good offensively against left handed pitching, but they are a bottom eight offense against right handed pitching. The San Diego Padres offense has really disappointed this year. They strike out too much, and they are up against a very good strikeout pitcher in Jesus Lazardo in this one. Luzardo is striking out 10.27 batters per nine innings and he has a 3.67 ERA and a 3.68 FIP. 

Joe Musgrove doesn't have the fantastic numbers he had last year thus far, but the advanced metrics suggest improvement is coming. Musgrove has a 5.64 ERA and a 3.69 xERA. He is in the 84th percentile according to Baseball Savant in average exit velocity allowed. He has very good control. In 79 plate appearances, this Marlins lineup has an xWOBA of just .271 against Musgrove. 

It's a get away day game and that could mean a key bat or two out of the lineup.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Reds are 11th in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. Cincinnati's offense has been terrific of late. The Reds have scored 8 runs or more in four straight games and in five of their last six. 

James Paxton was hit hard in his last game, and he is still working his way back from injury. The Red Sox bullpen isn't deep.

Luke Weaver has a 5.41 ERA and a 5.29 FIP. He's up against one of the best offenses in baseball here. The Red Sox have been particularly good offensively on their home field. The Reds middle relief is a big weakness and Weaver could struggle to pitch deep into this one.

Fenway Park is a place where the weather matters a lot. The forecast calls for 70 degrees and 10 mph winds blowing out toward left and center field during this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Michael Kopech had fantastic stuff before injuries derailed his career for a couple years. He was one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. Kopech has now thrown two absolute gems in a row. He has thrown 15 innings in his last two starts. In those 15 IP- he has allowed just 3 hits and 0 runs. He has walked one batter and struck out 19. Kopech has allowed 2 runs or fewer in four of his last five starts.

Griffin Canning is an inconsistent pitcher, but he has a high upside and he showed that in his last start. 

Both the Angels and White Sox are significantly better against left handed pitching than right handed pitching. In fact, Chicago is a dreadful 27th in weighted on base average against right handed pitching.

The under is 5-1 in the Angels last 6 vs. a right handed starter. The under is 5-2 in the White Sox last 7 vs. a right handed starter.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Yu Darvish against Gerrit Cole is a good pitching matchup in New York. 

San Diego is 23rd in weighted on base average against right handed pitching for the year. This Padres lineup just hasn't been very good all season. San Diego relies a lot on walks, and Cole has good control. He also has a very favorable home plate umpire here. 

The Yankees are 19th in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. New York's depth has really been tested by their injuries. Darvish is still capable of missing a lot of bats. 

Bill Miller is arguably the best under umpire in baseball. He has an insanely high 3.82 strikeout/walk ratio this year. He definitely likes to ring up batters.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston Celtics have gotten back in this series with their defense. Boston has turned up the pressure defensively. Miami is an above average defensive team, and for the majority of the season they were a below average offense.

In Game 5, the game finished at just 207 points despite the two teams shooting the ball well. In fact, they averaged 1.25 and 1.115 points per possession in that game. The pace was just 87.5 possessions in that game. That was the slowest paced game in the series.

In the NBA playoffs, as the games get bigger the pace generally slows down. The stakes are massive for this game. Boston is in a win or go home spot, and yet you could argue the pressure has shifted back onto Miami. They don't want any part of this series getting evened up at 3 and going back to Boston. No NBA team has blown a 3-0 series lead. They certainly don't want to be the first.

This total has been adjusted down a bit, but I don't think it is enough. This should play out like a game where both teams feel their backs are up against the wall in a must win spot. 

Malcolm Brogdon is banged up for the Celtics and Gabe Vincent is injured for the Heat too. Those guys had been key offensive contributors down the stretch.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tampa Bay Rays offense has been the best in baseball so far this year. Tampa Bay has been consistently excellent all year. They have scored six runs or more in three of their last four games and six of their last ten games.

Noah Syndergaard is far from what he was a few years ago before the injuries. He now doesn't miss many bats and is giving up a lot of hard contact.

The Dodgers will go against opener Jalen Beeks and then Cooper Criswell here. Beeks is a mediocre lefty. The Dodgers have a very unlucky .227 batting average on balls in play against lefties. They are due for positive regression against lefties. Criswell is a right hander who has looked very shaky in his first three big league appearances. Los Angeles has a deep lineup that has caught fire of late. The Dodgers have scored five runs or more in seven of their last eight games. 

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Seattle Mariners are third worst in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. While JP Sears does have some weaknesses, he has great control and is a tough matchup for the Mariners. Sears is on a bad team, but I do like his potential for the long term.

Logan Gilbert is a much above average right handed pitcher. Guess which team is last in wOBA against right handed pitching in the majors? The Oakland A's, and it isn't even close. 

Oakland has scored 2 runs or fewer in 7 of their last 9 games. I don't think they will score many here either. 

Cory Blaser is the home plate umpire here. The under is 39-26 in his last three years behind home plate. He carries a top ten strikeout/walk ratio out of all umpires in the big leagues.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians have been the worst offense in the majors so far this year. Cleveland lacks consistency in the lineup. The Guardians have a star in Jose Ramirez, but they haven't surrounded him with enough help. 

The Chicago White Sox offense is just mediocre. Chicago has lost a lot of key pieces in recent years from their lineup.

Michael Kopech had the best outing of his career in the White Sox last game. Kopech has a sub 4 ERA if you discount his first start of the year. Kopech was a really highly touted pitcher who is coming back from some major injury issues.

Cal Quantrill has a good history against the White Sox, and Quantrill has in general been a guy who does a good job not issuing free passes.

Lentz is the home plate umpire here and he has had an above average strikes called rate and a high strikeout/walk ratio. 

The weather calls for a steady breeze blowing in at about 12-14 mph during this game. The wind in angles have been strong in Cleveland home games.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Boston Red Sox are second in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. Boston has deep lineup with guys who can work the count quite a bit and get on base. Michael Wacha is middle of the road right handed pitcher. Wacha lacks that dominant pitch to strike guys out with.

Corey Kluber was once an excellent pitcher who could dominate on a consistent basis. Kluber is nothing like he was a few years ago. Kluber has a 6.41 ERA and a 6.63 FIP on the season. He has given up a ton of hard hit balls on the season. He just isn't fooling people like he did in the past. The Padres offense does have the lowest batting average on balls in play in the majors against right handed pitching, so they should get better in this category.

Mark Wegner is behind home plate, and Wegner is one of the better over umpires in baseball. He consistently has one of the lowest called strike percentages of any umpire. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Patrick Sandoval has turned himself into a good left handed starting pitcher. Sandoval has an elite curveball, and he has improved his command of the rest of his pitches in the past year. Sandoval has a 3.22 ERA and a 3.99 FIP on the season thus far. 

The Minnesota Twins rank 25th in the majors in weighted on base average away from home. Minnesota is also 28th out of 30 teams in the majors in wOBA against lefties. This is a tough matchup for the Twins offense. 

Varland is a young pitcher with a unique delivery that can bother some hitters until they get accustomed to it. The Angels offense is good, but they aren't as deep now without Anthony Rendon.

Roberto Ortiz is the home plate umpire here. The under is an impressive 45-17 in his last 62 games behind home plate. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Orioles are fifth in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. This young lineup has several guys who really crush left handed pitching. Kikuchi is a left hander who this Baltimore lineup has hit hard in the past. How well have they hit him? The Orioles current lineup has a .446 wOBA against Kikuchi in 73 plate appearances. It isn't a huge sample size, but it is plenty large enough to see that they have really seen him well. Kikuchi has a 3.89 ERA on the year, but his FIP is 5.46 and he has stranded a ridiculous 90.9% of base runners so far this year. He can't keep that up long term. I like the matchup for Baltimore.

Toronto is still one of the best offenses in the majors. Gibson is a really inconsistent pitcher. He is more than capable of getting hit hard in any one game. Toronto has scored four runs or more in each of their last six games against the Orioles. Toronto has a strong top of the order and Gibson tends to put too many guys on base free.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Chase Silseth has a 6.59 ERA as a starter in the majors. Silseth doesn't have enough plus pitches at this point in his career to consistently get guys out over several innings. While Baltimore has slumped a bit offensively of late, the Orioles are still a pretty good lineup.

Dean Kremer has a 4.97 ERA, but his xERA is 6.93 so far this season. The Angels are a dangerous lineup. They rank top ten in the majors in all major categories. The Angels have scored 5 runs or more in 9 of their last 12 games overall.

The weather here is favorable with a game time temperature of 75 degrees and winds blowing out to right field at 10 mph. This park is a hitters park with conditions like this.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Milwaukee Brewers are terrible against left handed pitching, but they are above average against right handed pitching. Milwaukee has a .329 OBP against right handers. The Brewers are at just .278 OBP against lefties. They are up against Jack Flaherty, a right hander who is really struggling right now. Flaherty has an ERA of 9 in his last five starts. The Brewers lineup has a fantastic .401 weighted on base average against Flaherty in his career.

St. Louis' offense has come on in a big way of late. They are averaging 6.2 runs per game in their last ten contests. Freddy Peralta is a good pitcher, but the Cardinals have hit him very well in the past. Peralta has a 6.59 ERA in St. Louis. The Cardinals have a .382 wOBA against him.

This is a low total given the matchups.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Dodgers start Tony Gonsolin in this one. Gonsolin has great career numbers against the Padres. Gonsolin has a low .265 weighted on base average allowed against this Padres lineup in his career. The Padres have scored three runs or fewer in 7 of their last 10 games overall.

Ryan Weathers is no great pitcher, but he is serviceable. The Dodgers lineup is much better against right handed pitching than lefties.

This is a Sunday afternoon game and it wouldn't be a surprise if a key hitter or two misses this one. 

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire here. He is a very good under umpire. He has the highest strikeout/walk ratio in the majors in the last five years. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Heat host the New York Knicks in Game 6. The Heat have a chance to finish off this series and go to the Eastern Conference Finals. I think there is a good chance they will do so, but I'm going to back the under here.

Game 6 and Game 7 in the NBA playoffs have been good to under bettors. The game typically slows down a bit and the defensive intensity increases even more. These are two above average defensive teams. Both coaches are well known for being good defensive minds. 

The Knicks have been a team that is prone to scoring droughts. Jalen Brunson has been consistent, but the rest of the team has been streaky shooting the basketball. The Heat have been very good offensively in the playoffs, but I still doubt that in the long run they can continue to shoot the basketball this well against good defenses.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Clayton Kershaw isn't what he was several years ago, but he is still a very good pitcher. Kershaw has a 2.53 ERA and a 3.30 xERA so far this year. He has 10.13 strikeouts per nine innings on the season thus far. Kershaw now faces a Brewers team that has the highest strikeout rate against left handed pitching so far this year. They are striking out at a really high 30.5% rate. Kershaw should pitch well against this lineup.

Wade Miley has been above average so far this year. He can be inconsistent, but the Dodgers rank 25th in weighted on base average against left handed pitching so far this year. 

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire here. Eddings has the highest strikes called percentage of any umpire in the last six years. Eddings is a strike caller and this is a get away day game in Milwaukee. I think the pitchers will get the edges and there could be a key bat or two missing in the lineup.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The stats from the 76ers overtime one point win over the Celtics in Game Four are really something else. The game played to a snail's pace at 86 possessions. That's the slowest pace of any game in the NBA playoffs so far this postseason. 

Both teams shot the lights out in that game. Philly had 1.22 points per possession and Boston had 1.21 points per possession. Despite shooting the ball tremendously, the game had 214 points before overtime. Even if we assume the pace will be a bit quicker in this one (it likely will be) the teams have to shoot the ball well to get past this posted total. 

If there are 91 possessions in the game and the teams average 1.15 points per possession, that would be between 209 and 210 points. These are two top eight defenses in the league. At times Boston has shown the ability to shut the opposition completely down. I don't expect James Harden to continue to shoot the percentage he shot last game.

At 2-2 this is clearly a huge game for both teams. I expect the intensity to be there in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Charlie Morton is no longer a really good starting pitcher. Morton is fine, but he is past his prime. Morton is a few months away from turning 40. He has a 3.38 ERA, but a 5.29 xERA, 4.10 FIP, and 4.68 xFIP. He has been fortunate so far this season. The Boston lineup is a very good one. Against right handed pitching, Boston is second in the majors in weighted on base average. Boston has scored 7 runs or more in seven of their last nine games.

Nick Pivetta is a below average starting pitcher. Pivetta has been far worse through the course of his career when pitching at night. Pivetta has a 4.07 daytime ERA, but a terrible 5.49 ERA at night (and a 1.437 WHIP). The Braves lineup is one of the best in the majors, and I think he will struggle against them.

Both teams should have plenty of chances to score in this one. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Kansas City Royals offense started the season really slowly, but they have been excellent of late. Kansas City has scored 31 runs in their last four games. They have scored at least six runs in each of those games. 

Oakland's offense isn't good, but they have scored 7 runs or more in three of their last eight games. They are up against Brady Singer in this one. It seems like something is wrong with Singer. He ranks in the bottom one percentile of all pitchers in baseball in exit velocity allowed and hard hit percentage allowed this season. Singer has a 8.49 ERA and a 5.05 FIP (a 7.11 xERA) and the whole season has been a struggle for him.

Ken Waldichuk starts for Oakland, and he has been very poor as well. Waldichuk has a 7.26 ERA and a 7.40 FIP in six starts on the season. The Royals have been much better against left handed pitching than righties so far this year.

The weather here calls for a temperature of around 90 degrees with the wind blowing out about 10 mph which will help the ball carry.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Game One in this series saw the 76ers pull off a big upset in Boston 119-115. The Celtics defense in that game was very weak. I would expect a much stronger effort from Boston here. Boston is a top three defense in the NBA. They should be able to come up with a much better plan to slow down James Harden in Game two. 

Joel Embiid is doubtful to play in game two. The Sixers offense clicked beautifully in game one, but in game two I expect them to see much tougher resistance.

The pace of game one was just 91 possessions. The offensive efficiency numbers were off the charts in game one. The 76ers averaged 1.293 points per possession and the Celtics averaged 1.278 points per possession. 

Even if we assume the pace will be two possessions quicker than last game and then normalize the offensive efficiency to about 1.16 points per possession (still good numbers offensively) the total would be slightly under 216 points. 

I think the three point adjustment up in this totals number gives us some value to take the under in the second game. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Toronto Blue Jays start Alek Manoah in this one. Manoah has been in poor form so far this year. He has a 4.88 ERA and he has been fortunate at that as well. He has a FIP of 5.88 and an xFIP of 5.69. 

Nick Pivetta isn't a pitcher I trust. Pivetta has drastic day/night splits in his career. He has been much worse at night. He has a career day game ERA of 4.07 and a night ERA of 5.50. His WHIP is 1.442 at night which is really poor. Pivetta also has terrible career numbers against this Toronto lineup. A wOBA of .419 for this Blue Jays lineup in a large sample size of 164 plate appearances against Pivetta.

The Red Sox offense is rolling of late. Boston has scored 28 runs in their last four games. They have scored at least six runs in each of those contests. 

Toronto has scored 19 runs in their last three games. The Blue Jays have one of the best lineups in baseball.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* It's game seven of what has been the most exciting first round series in the NBA playoffs. Golden State shockingly was blown away at home in Game 6, so we are back to Sacramento for Game 7.

It is win or go home time for both teams. There is a bunch on the line in this one, and that usually means the defensive intensity picks up a bit more. The tempo is usually a bit slower. It will still be pretty fast in this matchup, but I think it will be a tick slower than the other games in the series. Many times in the past the refs will let them play a bit more in a game 7 as well, so hopefully we don't run into a ref crew that wants to make this all about them. 

Three of the six games in this series have stayed under this total even before they reached this critical game seven contest.

Game 7's in the NBA playoffs are 35-22 to the under in the last 57 with an average overall winning margin of about 5 points per game. 

It isn't easy to take an under between these two, but the long term systems have me on this under at a high number.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Seattle Mariners have hit Kevin Gausman well in the past. This Mariners lineup has a .358 weighted on base average in 78 plate appearances against Gausman. They haven't consistently shown it, but I still think this is a pretty good Seattle offense.

The Blue Jays are unquestionably one of the best offenses in the majors. Toronto has crushed Chris Flexen in the past. Flexen has allowed a .390 wOBA against this Blue Jays lineup in his career. 

Flexen has been absolutely crushed so far this year. He has a 8.86 ERA and a 6.63 FIP on the season. He has allowed 20 runs in his last 12 innings pitched. This Blue Jays lineup isn't the lineup you want to face when you are in terrible form.

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Marlins are a weak offense on the whole. Miami is 25th in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. Marcus Stroman has a 2.17 ERA, and four of his five starts have been very good ones. 

The Cubs are 6th in wOBA against lefties, but they have an extremely high batting average on balls in play which suggests they aren't going to be able to keep this pace in the long run. Jesus Luzardo has allowed just 4 runs in 17 innings pitched at home this year.

Two above average pitchers here and I think we see a low scoring game with both pitchers going pretty deep into the game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both pitchers enter this game in great form. Cease has a 2.73 ERA and a 3.68 FIP on the season. McClanahan has a 1.86 ERA and a 2.92 FIP. Both of these guys are on the short list of best pitchers in the league. 

The two offenses have been ice cold of late. Both offenses have been shutout in their last two games. The White Sox have scored 3 runs or fewer in six of their last seven. The Rays haven't been as good offensively on the road, and they are better against left handed pitching. In this one they are up against an elite right handed starter.

This one should be a tight low scoring contest.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Bucks had the 4th best defense in the NBA in terms of defensive efficiency in the regular season. Miami was an average offensive team in the regular season. 

The Miami Heat have been absolutely shooting the lights out so far in this series. Miami has been torching the nets from 3 point range. Duncan Robinson is shooting 76.5% from 3 point range in this series. Jimmy Butler is shooting 53% from 3 point range in the series. Gabe Vincent is shooting 47.6% from 3 point range. Butler is fantastic and the Heat's offense has been very good, but I don't think they can keep up this ridiculous shooting. 

Milwaukee is in a win or go home situation here. The Bucks should bring the intensity in a big way here. 

Milwaukee's offense has been inconsistent and the Heat do have a strong defense. Spoelstra is a really good defensive mind.

These closeout games have been solid for under bettors in the long run, and I think the pace should slow down a bit in a game of this magnitude. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Chris Sale isn't the same dominant pitcher he was several years ago. Sale is now 34 years old and injuries have slowed him down. He an ERA of 8.00 and a FIP of 5.63 on the season thus far. 

Dean Kremer has a 6.16 ERA and a 6.57 on the year. Kremer has potential, but he is a very inconsistent young pitcher.

Both of these lineups have really hit the opposing pitcher well. Sale has allowed a .349 wOBA against this Baltimore lineup. Kremer has allowed the Red Sox lineup to have a whopping .410 wOBA against him. 

I think this total is set too low given the question marks surrounding the pitchers.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians will start Logan Allen in this one. Allen is one of their top prospects. He has elite strikeout stuff and has been striking out more than 11 batters per nine innings in the minors. Miami has good numbers against lefties early this year, but that is carried by abnormally high batting average on balls in play numbers (BABIP) that aren't sustainable. 

Jesus Luzardo has really fixed his command issues and Luzardo has great strikeout stuff. The Cleveland Guardians have been weak against lefties for three straight seasons. I think he'll give them a lot of trouble here.

Miami has seen its last nine games stay under this total. Cleveland has seen its last five games all stay under the total. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Bucks and Miami Heat are averaging an insane 1.244 and 1.235 points per possession in the first two games of this series. It's extremely hard to continue to shoot the ball that well, especially in the playoffs when the intensity is very high.

The Bucks and Heat are both above average defenses. Erik Spoelstra is an excellent coach, and I would expect him to have a good defensive game plan to slow down the Bucks after the Heat were awful on defense in Game Two. 

Giannis is questionable here. I do like the play whether he plays in this one or not. The Bucks have the guys to make life difficult for Jimmy Butler. 

The regular season meetings between these two teams were far lower than these two playoff games have been. I think we see some regression to the mean.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Bill Miller is the home plate umpire in this one. Miller has the highest strikeout/walk ratio of any umpire in the last six years. Miller has consistently been a strike caller who will make the zone a bit larger on strike three especially. A big plus for under bettors in general.

Anthony Desclafani starts for the Giants. He is a middle of the road pitcher, but his biggest weakness has always been he gives up too many home runs. Now he is in a great pitcher's park where home runs are as hard to come by as anywhere in Major League Baseball.

Joey Lucchesi returns to start here, and the Giants have been awful against left handed pitching this year. San Francisco has a terrible .271 OBP against lefties so far this season. 

A total this high is a pretty high one for this park as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Kansas City Royals host the Texas Rangers in an afternoon game on Wednesday. 

Brady Singer starts for the Royals. Singer is a guy who I think can be good in the long run, but he is in really bad form right now. Singer has pitched 16 innings so far this year and has allowed 14 earned runs. His 7.88 ERA is also supported by a really high 6.07 FIP. Singer is giving up more hard contact this year and pitching with traffic on the bases.

Martin Perez has a 2.87 ERA but a 5.11 FIP. Perez has been pretty fortunate so far this year. 

The weather here is a key as well. A temperature of 78-80 degrees during the game with winds blowing out to center and left field at about 20 mph with gusts to 25 or 30 mph during the game. 

Both offenses have been very unfortunate so far this year according to BABIP numbers. I'll take the over in this one.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers made 21 three pointers in Game One of this series. Brooklyn shot better than 60% for the majority of the game and still lost by a large margin. 

The pace of the game was an extremely slow 90.5 possessions. Set to a normalized points per possession figure for these two, a game at that pace should finish with about 206 or 207 points total. The first game was abnormally high because of the white hot shooting in the first half.

I'm going to bet that the shooting here cools off. These are both above average defenses and I think there will be some good adjustments made. 

I think this total is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Phoenix Suns have a very good team, and they are good at dictating the pace with Chris Paul running the show. Paul's teams have tended to like to play in the halfcourt more than not. The Suns this year are the same way. They are an above average defensive team too.

Paul George is out for the Clippers, and he is primarily an offensive star. Kawhi Leonard is a defensive superstar and he should be able to make the Suns stars take some difficult shots here. Tyronn Lue is a good defensive minded coach too.

This total is the same it was earlier this month when these two played in the regular season. This game means much more.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Zac Gallen has a superb .190 weighted on base average against the Miami Marlins. The Marlins are still a light hitting team this year even with some upgrades on offense. Gallon has a career WHIP of 0.95 in the first month of the season.

Sandy Alcantara was hit around in his last outing, but I think he'll bounce back here. Alcantara is still a top ten pitcher in the majors. He has elite strikeout stuff, and the DBacks have a lot of free swingers in their lineup.

I like this one to stay low scoring all the way. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Tampa Bay has played 14 games so far this year. The Rays have scored 5 runs or more in 11 of those games. They have scored 7 runs or more in eight of those games. This Tampa Bay offense is on fire with Franco, Arozarena, and Lowe leading the way thus far.

Kikuchi is a below average left handed pitcher. He can look very impressive on a rare occasion, but overall his numbers are bad. Kikuchi puts far too many people on base. The Rays have the power to make him pay for those free passes too. 

Faucher is the opener here for Fleming for the Rays. Fleming has been in bad form this year, and he has given up a lot of hard contact. The Blue Jays lineup is one of the best in baseball, and they will mash left handed pitching again this year.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is technically the first game of the playoffs with the play in tournament now complete. 

The Brooklyn Nets and Philadelphia 76ers square off here. The Nets have slowed their pace down drastically late in the season. They rank 27th out of 30 teams in the NBA in tempo in their last 15 games. Philadelphia ranks 30th in tempo in that time frame. This game should be played in the halfcourt. 

Game one in the NBA playoffs tends to be a bit of tighter game with slower tempos to begin with. Early start times have been positive for under bettors through the playoffs and even more so in round one of the NBA playoffs.

The intensity should be up in this one, and I think the open shots will be tougher to come by than normal.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Kansas City Royals offense has woke up of late after a terrible start to the season. Kansas City has scored 24 runs in their last 5 games. Kansas City isn't great on offense, but they are better than many think they are after their terrible start to the season.

The Braves have one of the very best offenses in baseball. Atlanta's depth in the lineup is really tough to match.

Brady Singer is a guy I like, but Singer has consistently had slow starts to the season. Singer's ERA is nearly a full run worse in the first half of the season compared to the second half. 

Charlie Morton is far past his prime and one of his weaknesses at this point is his control and the hard contact that he allows. 

The wind will be blowing out at about 12 to 14 mph during this game with warm temperatures too.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Griffin Canning returns after missing last year due to an injury. Canning has pitched pretty well in the majors in the past. Canning also pitched very well in the minors in his most recent start. He's up against a weak Nationals lineup here.

Gore isn't a great pitcher, but he has some quality pitches too. Gore should be able to throw enough strikes to get ahead in the count a decent amount of the time here.

This is a get away day game and both of these managers are liable to sit a key bat or two.

Doug Eddings is the umpire here. He has the highest called strikes percentage of any umpire in the majors over the last five years. Eddings is a good under umpire.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* PNC Park has been a park that changes a lot based on the weather. PNC has been a really good over park with warm temperatures and the wind blowing out. This one will be played in those conditions.

Rich Hill is 43 years old. Hill has been a slow starter his entire career and he clearly isn't at the top of his game anymore. The Astros have a lineup that will crush left handed pitching this year. 

Jose Urquidy has been a slow starter too. His worst month of the season in his career has been the first month, and it isn't close. Urquidy has a 1.393 WHIP in the first month of the season. No other month is higher than 1.21. 

Look for both teams to get plenty of scoring opportunities here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Kyle Wright has been fantastic in the first month of the season in his career. He is a fast starter. Wright has a 1.18 WHIP in March/April and he averages a 1.263 WHIP for his entire career. Wright has struck out 10.6 batters per nine innings in March/April and his overall career average is 8.6 strikeouts per nine innings. Wright is up against a Reds offense that is subpar especially away from Great American Ballpark. 

Luis Cessa has a .209 wOBA against this current Braves lineup. It is in a very small sample size, but I think Cessa is at least somewhat underrated as a pitcher. He has solid control.

Ryan Blakeney is behind home plate here and I view him as a pretty good under umpire. The temperatures aren't very warm for this game either.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The St. Louis Cardinals travel to Coors Field to take on the Colorado Rockies on Monday night. Steven Matz is in line to get the start for the Cardinals. Matz has been terrible at Coors Field in his career. He has a 9.20 ERA in three starts in Colorado. Against this Rockies lineup, Matz has allowed a ..560 wOBA and a .488 average in 50 plate appearances.

German Marquez has a terrible .426 wOBA against the Cardinals in a pretty big sample size of 105 plate appearances. Marquez has continued to struggle when pitching at Coors Field.

I think both teams get a lot of baserunners on in this one. A back and forth contest.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The New York Yankees still have an excellent bullpen. Nestor Cortes will start this game too, and Cortes is a very good starter. Cortes has excellent numbers against the Orioles. Cortes has a fantastic .195 weighted on base average allowed in 86 plate appearances against the Orioles. 

Wells has solid stuff, and I think he can become a pretty good pitcher for Baltimore. The Yankees lineup can be a bit inconsistent.

The weather here calls for cool weather and a slight wind in.

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire. Miller has the highest strikeout/walk ratio in the majors in the last five years. He is a very good under umpire.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Brito is a really good young pitcher for the Yankees. He has great stuff and multiple plus pitches. The Orioles do have some free swingers on their team and he could take advantage of that.

Cole Irvin has been a fast starter throughout his career. He isn't a great pitcher, but he doesn't usually hurt himself with a bunch of walks. 

The Yankees bullpen is one of the best in baseball. The Orioles bullpen is improved.

Roberto Ortiz is the home plate umpire in this one. The under is 41-15 in his last 56 games behind the plate.

Cool temperatures are in the forecast here with a slight breeze in.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Early in Madison Bumgarner's career he had some terrific numbers against the LA Dodgers. Bumgarner isn't the same pitcher he was six or eight years ago. The Dodgers also have a better lineup than they had back then as well. Bumgarner has pitched poorly against LA the last three years. Bumgarner has also been poor at Chase Field.

Clayton Kershaw has a somewhat pedestrian 3.81 ERA when pitching at Chase Field in his career. Kershaw is still a very good pitcher, but he isn't quite as dominant as he once was. The DBacks offense is a bit underrated in my opinion.

The over is helped by home plate umpire Alfonso Marquez who has been one of the very best over umpires in the league for the last 6 or 8 years. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Shane Bieber is still one of the best starting pitchers in baseball. The Oakland Athletics absolutely have one of the worst offenses in baseball. Oakland has scored 2 runs or fewer in three of four games. They then scored 11 in a loss yesterday to the Guardians. I expect a lot more of the very low run totals from the A's offense this year.

The Cleveland Guardians are a team who has drastic lefty/righty splits. The Guardians are very weak against left handed pitching. They face a good young lefty in J.P. Sears here. Sears has good strikeout stuff and I think he will improve this year.

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire. He has the highest strike percentage called of any umpire in the last eight years (overall average). He is a very good under umpire.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UConn Huskies defense has been excellent at the end of the year. The Huskies have held Gonzaga to 54 and Miami to 59 points in their last two games. They also held St. Mary's to 55 earlier in the tournament. 

San Diego State's offense isn't very good, and they can go through long scoring droughts. San Diego State had a clear height advantage against Florida Atlantic, but the length of the UConn defense should bother them. Clinigan and Sanogo are a great tandem down low. The length of the UConn guards is excellent too.

San Diego State's defense has been fantastic all year, but they have been at their best in the NCAA Tournament. They will do their best to turn this game into a rock fight. I would expect them to contest UConn's three point jumpers better than anyone else in the NCAA Tournament has. San Diego State is second in the nation in 3 point defense % allowed.

The neutral court here at NRG has led to the 9 games played here going under the total by more than 5.5 points on the average.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Diego State Aztecs are now the #2 ranked three point defense in the country. San Diego State is allowing opponents to shoot just 27.7% from three point range on the year. Florida Atlantic is 35th in three point frequency on offense, so they are definitely accustomed to taking a lot of shots from long range. San Diego State is going to contest those long range jumpers better than anyone Florida Atlantic has played this year.

San Diego State has really been grinding down the tempo of their games of late. They slowed a very fast paced Furman team down to 63 possessions. They slowed a pretty fast Creighton team down to 62 possessions. KenPom projects the pace of this game at 66 possessions, but I think that is a bit too quick. Florida Atlantic was slowed to just 59 possessions against Tennessee. That is the most similar team the Owls have played. 

San Diego State's offense isn't very good, especially with Matt Bradley in a major funk. Their leading scorer during the season has been awful in their last three games. San Diego State is a very inconsistent jump shooting team. Florida Atlantic is underrated on defense.

This game is played at NRG Stadium, a massive football stadium where the shooting backdrop has bothered some teams. The under is 4-3 in games played here with the under cashing by an average of 6.29 points in the seven game sample overall. Two of the overs have cashed by two points or fewer. None of the unders have cashed by less than five points. 

I think this will be a tight game where easy shots are tough to come by. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Phoenix Suns are expected to get Kevin Durant back in the lineup tonight. Durant is a fantastic scorer, but he hasn't played in a long time. Often these stars are a little rusty when they first come back, and Durant won't play his normal amount of minutes.

The Minnesota Timberwolves have been playing some very good defenses. They held a high flying Sacramento Kings offense to 115 points. The game before that they had allowed only 96 points to Golden State. Minnesota's tempo has been slower in recent games than it was in the earlier part of the season.

This game matters to both teams. They are battling for position in the standings. The Western Conference playoff race is tight as can be for seeding, and we are coming down to the wire. The effort should be here in a game like this.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets host the Philadelphia 76ers in a game between two teams who have had a great season, but should continue to try to keep winning to help with the seeding in the playoffs. 

These late season games between two good teams have been very good under angles in the past 15 years in the NBA. In fact, two teams over 60% in win percentage late in the year squaring off has been a 56% plus angle to the under during that game. 

In this one, Philadelphia now narrowly has the slowest pace of any team in the NBA over the last ten games. The Nuggets are 26th in tempo so they don't like to push the tempo either. The 76ers are third best in the NBA in defensive efficiency.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Los Angeles Lakers host the Chicago Bulls in a game that means a lot to both teams when it comes to the playoff standings. 

The Lakers have been playing better basketball of late. LeBron James is questionable for this game. If he does return it would likely be on a minutes restriction and he isn't likely to be in top form right away. The Lakers defense has been very good of late. Los Angeles is 5th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last ten games. They have also drastically slowed their pace down from early in the year. They are now playing at a league average tempo.

The Bulls are dead last in the NBA in tempo in their last ten games, and it isn't very close. Chicago is averaging just 94.8 possessions per game in their last ten games. They are also a solid 10th in defensive efficiency.

This is an early game in Los Angeles on a Sunday. The Sunday early games in the NBA have been very good under wagers for the last decade.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Gonzaga Bulldogs offense is elite. Gonzaga's guards are better than they looked in their close win over UCLA in the Sweet 16. I would expect them to hit a few more shots from deep in this one. Drew Timme will have a tougher matchup here in the paint, but he has been excellent the last two years and I would still expect a pretty good scoring game from him.

UConn is firing on all cylinders right now. The Huskies have scored 87 and 88 points in two of their NCAA Tournament games (Iona and Arkansas). UConn is tremendous on the offensive glass, and Gonzaga is only decent on the defensive glass. Timme is elite on offense, but he is subpar on defense and I think UConn's big guys can have a big offensive game. 

These two teams are first and fourth in the nation (363 teams) in second chance conversion percentage, which is quick second chance opportunities from offensive rebounds. 

The pace here should be pretty quick. UConn is an average paced team and Gonzaga likes to run as much as possible. 

The Gonzaga defense is a big weakness, and UConn should be able to take advantage of it. UConn's three point shooting has been good of late, and they have several scoring options from outside.

The UConn defense is good, but they do foul a bunch. Gonzaga is good at getting to the line and they should be in the bonus quite a bit in this game. I expect them to get plenty of good looks.

Gonzaga's game against UCLA cashed the over and even went over this total despite UCLA going 11 minutes without making a field goal in the second half.

T Mobile Arena has been a good over arena. The rims here are loose and there isn't a tough backdrop. The over is 25-12 in the last 37 postseason games at T Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Those games have gone over the total by an average of 5.59 points.

This should be a great game and overtime or a foul fest late is certainly possible.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Creighton Blue Jays have been known as a great offensive team in the past few years under Greg McDermott. They are still very good on offense, but this is the best Creighton defense McDermott has had. In fact, Creighton is 23rd in offensive efficiency in the country and an even better 13th on defense.

Creighton is elite at two key things- defending without fouling (3rd in the country), and defensive rebounding (13th best in the country). These two things can really help keep a total down. 

Princeton has made a stunning run into the Sweet 16. The Tigers have done so by controlling the pace in a big way against both Arizona and Missouri. Both of those teams play faster than Creighton. Princeton knows their best chance to win is by stalling and playing low scoring games. The Arizona game was low all the way. The Missouri game stayed under, and was very low scoring until Missouri turned the game into a ridiculous foul fest late down 15 points. Even with all that fouling late the game ended up being played to a pace of just 63 possessions.

Sweet 16 games with a spread of 7.5 points or larger are 23-8 to the under in the last 31 games. This one fits the bill. That same angle with a total of 135 or higher is 18-3 to the under. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Volunteers rank first in the nation in defensive efficiency. Rick Barnes has plenty of shortcomings as a head coach, but his teams defend with tremendous intensity. Florida Atlantic hasn't played anyone who defends the way Tennessee does.

The Tennessee offense isn't very good. The Volunteers take a lot of long range jumpers, but they are shooting just 33.0% from 3 point range. Tennessee relies heavily on getting second chance opportunities. Florida Atlantic ranks 43rd in defensive rebounding percentage. They also rank 43rd out of 363 in the country in defending without fouling.

Florida Atlantic's offense focuses on putting up a lot of 3 point jumpers. The Tennessee defense is first in the country in 3 point percentage allowed at just 26.0%. The Owls are going to have a much harder time than normal getting up open long range jumpers.

Madison Square Garden is the host for this game. This has been the single best under venue in all of college basketball for the long term. The tough shooting backdrop can be really hard for shooters to adjust to. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* TCU takes on Gonzaga on Sunday night in what should be a fun contest between two very good teams.

TCU does play quickly, but the Horned Frogs have been extremely inconsistent on offense. They are very good defensively. TCU is 23rd in defensive efficiency. They are also 23rd in turnover rate forced. The Horned Frogs will switch up their defenses a lot and look to give Gonzaga's offense some trouble with unique setups. Gonzaga's offense is excellent, but they haven't faced many teams throughout the year who are able to be as aggressive and force turnovers at the rate TCU can. 

TCU's is just 213th in effective field goal percentage offense. It will be pretty rare to see a total in the upper 150's with one team who has been this inefficient on offense. TCU had been very good on the offensive glass earlier with Eddie Lampkin being a key, but he is off the team now. The Horned Frogs will rely heavily on Mike Miles in this one.

Ball Arena in Colorado at a high altitude hosts this game. The first four games played here all stayed under in the Round of 64. They stayed under closing numbers which had dropped drastically in many cases. They stayed under by an average of 6.75 points. The second half was very low in most of these games. 

I think the pace will be pretty fast here, but I think this total is a few points too high given the situation. It's a one and done and the unders have been hitting at a very high rate in this NCAA Tournament. Hopefully we get another ref crew here who swallows the whistle more than in the regular season games. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers do like to play fast and they will try to push the temp, but Princeton has to know that they don't want to get into an up and down track meet with Missouri.

I backed the under between Princeton/Arizona and it stayed under by 40 points. I certainly don't expect this one to stay that low, but Princeton did show they are able to slow the game down against a team who wants to run and run. 

Missouri is very weak on the defensive glass, but Princeton is below average in their offensive rebounding percentages and second chance conversions. 

Princeton is elite at getting defensive rebounds (8th in the nation) and the Tigers defense is above average.

This is a really high total and both teams would have to shoot the ball well to reach this total at my expected pace here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The defenses here are elite. Tennessee is second in the nation in defensive efficiency on the year. Duke is 17th for the year, but they are a top ten defense in the last month. Both defenses do a fantastic job of protecting the paint and making opponents take contested mid range or long range jumpers frequently.

Tennessee has given up 57 points or less in four of their last six games. The Volunteers have lots of flaws as a team, but they are very athletic and they play great team defense. On offense, Tennessee lacks shooters and often goes through long scoring droughts.

Duke is a little too careless with the basketball, and Tennessee should force turnovers and hurt Duke's offensive efficiency here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Kent State Golden Flashes stand out as a rare team from the MAC who defends very well. Kent State took a fantastic game plan in and nearly won at both Houston and Gonzaga. They slowed the game down and used their top notch defense to keep the game close. 

Kent State's Hornbeak and Payton are long and athletic, and Jacobs is a fantastic one on one defender. I think they are more than capable of giving Indiana a really tough time getting open looks. 

Kent State's offense isn't consistently good. The Golden Flashes aren't a very good outside shooting team, and I don't think they can get in the paint and score on a consistent basis against Indiana.

This game is played at MVP Arena in Albany which has been a fantastic under venue in the past. It's a large arena with a tough shooting backdrop. How good has the under been in games here? The under is nearly 60% in the last 200 games here.

Look for both defenses to make it tough on the opposition here. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kentucky Wildcats and Providence Friars both play at a slower than average tempo. This is a neutral site game in Greensboro. In Greensboro, totals of 140 or higher have gone 75-47-1 to the under. The average margin of victory for the under is a solid 3.56 points over this large sample size.

Kentucky's offense will likely drive into the lane a lot here, but that is the strength of the Providence defense. The Friars will mix and match defenses a lot under Ed Cooley.

Providence's offense relies too much on Bryce Hopkins. There's a lot of pressure on him in this game against his old team. The Friars have relied heavily on offensive rebounds as well, but Kentucky was first in the SEC in defensive rebounding this year.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Marquette Golden Eagles defense was very weak early in the season, but since the start of February they have consistently been much better on defense. Marquette is a good defense now overall, but their weakness is defensive rebounding. Fortunately, Vermont isn't the type of team that goes after it on the offensive glass very much at all. Vermont is 358th out of 363 in offensive rebounding. The Catamounts are happy to get back and stop opponents in transition.

Vermont's good transition defense helps here too. The Marquette offense is excellent overall, but I think they'll have a bit harder time than normal getting to the hoop in transition. That should mean more shot clock being used up.

Neither of these teams get to the line very much at all, and second chance points aren't likely to be very high in this game either. 

These high spread games early in the NCAA Tournament have stayed under the total far more often than they have gone over. I think this under has value as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Texas A&M Aggies attack the basket and get to the free throw line at a high rate. There aren't many teams Penn State has played this year that attack the hoop as hard as the Aggies do. Penn State lacks shot blockers on the interior. In fact, they are just 327th out of 363 teams in the country in blocked shot percentage.

On the other side, Penn State is an elite shooting team. The Nittany Lions shoot 38.5% from three point range. Penn State is going to shoot a bunch of long range jumpers in this one. On the surface Texas A&M's three point defense looks good, but I see a couple big reasons for that. First, the SEC in general was a horrible three point shooting conference this year. Penn State will be the best long range shooting team Texas A&M has played. Second, that is shown by Texas A&M ranking 213th in open three rate allowed. Opponents were missing open shots. I think Penn State can make them. Jalen Pickett is an elite playmaker and Lundy, Funk, and Wynter are great outside shooters. 

The pace will be relatively slow here, but I think the efficiencies should be high enough for it to get over.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* High seeds in the first round of the NCAA Tournament who are favored by a large margin have seen their games go under the total at a high rate. That has been especially true when the total is set at a high number.

Arizona likes to play quickly, and they should score quite a few points here. At the same time, if they are up late it wouldn't surprise me to see them pull quite a few starters and slow things down a bit. They will have a tough challenge ahead with just one day off in between.

Princeton should absolutely know their best chance is to stall and slow the tempo down drastically. The Tigers will shoot a lot of long range jumpers here. They are going to be up against a very long Arizona team who will contest those long range jumpers much better than the teams Princeton played against in the Ivy League.

Arizona's defense isn't elite, but it is much improved and they looked great defensively against UCLA in their last game.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Charleston Cougars are 31-3 on the season. Charleston has been fantastic this year, but they did play a very weak schedule. Charleston hasn't seen a defense as good as San Diego State all season long. 

San Diego State's defense has rounded into form in a big way of late. Their last four games opponents have scored 0.931 points per possession or less in each contest. San Diego State is clearly a top eight or ten defense in the country. 

Charleston is all about getting out in transition and running, but San Diego State ranks in the top three in the nation in transition defense. Charleston's halfcourt sets end in too many contested three point jumpers. I don't think that is a good solution against the Aztecs.

San Diego State's offense still goes through long scoring droughts pretty often. They too often settle for low quality mid range jumpers.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* I don't usually play many unders early in the smaller postseason tournaments, but I'm going to in this one.

The fact that it is a smaller postseason tournament is definitely accounted for in the number or else this total would be several points lower. In recent years the over and under have been pretty even early in these tournaments.

This is a big game for Liberty. A chance to host a national power in a postseason tournament. Liberty should be highly motivated for a game like this. The Flames are consistently very slow paced.

Villanova is even slower paced than Liberty this year. The Wildcats and Flames both are top 50 defensive rebounding teams in the country. Both of them excel in defending without fouling too. 

They do both shoot the 3 ball a lot and if they are red hot from 3 this will go over, but with normal shooting percentages this game should stay under. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets are coming off back to back losses to the Bulls at home and then at the Spurs. Denver really needs a bounce back here. 

The Brooklyn Nets have a completely new look. They do play pretty fast, but they have been playing good defense. Brooklyn is first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last five games. Brooklyn is also 27th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last five games. 

Denver is 30-5 at home, and I would expect an improved defensive effort from this team after giving up 128 to the Spurs in their last game.

This is an early start in the Western Conference. It is also a Sunday early game and those have been good under wagers in the last 15 years in the NBA.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Xavier Musketeers and Marquette Golden Eagles meet in the Big East Finals on Saturday night. These two teams met twice during the regular season. Those two games finished with 156 points and 137 points. The pace of both of those games finished at just 69 possessions and 68 possessions. Marquette mixes in some zone defenses, and that has caused Xavier's offense to slow down from their normal very fast pace.

This game is at Madison Square Garden which is arguably the single best under venue in all of college basketball. The under has been money again this year at MSG in the Big East Tournament. Both games went well under the total last night. 

ShotQuality looks at the quality of shot taken and they believe the two regular season games between these two teams should have finished 154 and 150 points.

The tougher shooting backdrop and a lot on the line in the finals of the Big East Tournament. I'll take the under on this high number.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Florida Atlantic Owls are likely in the NCAA Tournament regardless, but I know their coaching staff has talked about wanting to finish the deal and win this Conference USA Tournament. The life of a mid-major isn't easy, and they want to avoid losing to MTSU twice in the same season.

MTSU is a slower paced team that relies on getting second chance points. Florida Atlantic is the single best team in the conference when it comes to defensive rebounding. The Owls do a great job defending without fouling as well. 

Florida Atlantic does play quickly, but their defense is underrated. The Owls rank in the top five percent of teams in the country in shot selection allowed.

This one is at Ford Center in Frisco, Texas. This is a football facility that has been great to under bettors through the years. The semifinal and final rounds played here have gone 10-3 to the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* These teams met twice this year. The pace was very slow in both games. One finished with 134 points and the other with 110 points.

Shot Quality is an advanced metrics site that measures how many points should have been scored based on the quality of shots taken by each team. They believe the 134 game should have been 129, and the 110 game should have been 119. Both were legitimately very low scoring games.

This is a win or go home and neither team will be pushing the tempo. These are the top two teams in the conference in defensive rebounding percentage as well.

Games played at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City have gone under the total by an average of 4.65 points (a very nice margin) in a 49 game sample size. In the postseason, the under is 19-8 at Boardwalk Hall. This is a big arena and these MAAC schools are not accustomed to playing in a big place like this with a tough shooting backdrop. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Marist Red Foxes have to try to slow the pace of this game down. Marist is a very slow paced team and they won their first game by stalling the pace out. They'll try to do the same here.

Games played at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City have gone under the total by an average of 4.65 points (a very nice margin) in a 49 game sample size. In the postseason, the under is 19-8 at Boardwalk Hall. This is a big arena and these MAAC schools are not accustomed to playing in a big place like this with a tough shooting backdrop. 

Quinnipiac relies on a lot of long range jumpers, but with this background I think they'll be tougher than normal to knock down.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The first time these two teams met the posted total was 145 points. The game finished with 147 points after they scored more than 90 points in the second half. 

This total is set 7 points higher in a win or go home situation in a game being played in an NBA arena at Rocket Mortgage in Cleveland, Ohio. 

The pace of this game should be a relatively average pace for college basketball. Oddsmakers are counting on efficiency in order to get to this high total. More times than not the defense steps up in these win or go home games, and we have seen the under do better overall the last couple days as tournaments have gone on.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* UNC Central is a very good team on defense every single year under Coach LeVelle Moton. This team doesn't give up many easy looks. They held Delaware State to 55 and 58 points in the two regular season meetings between these two teams.

Delaware State slows the pace down, and UNC Central is happy to play at a slow pace as well. Delaware State is first in the conference in defensive rebounding.

This game is played at Norfolk Scope Arena which has proven to be a solid under venue in the past. 

This game has a higher total than the average of the two regular season meetings between these teams. Both regular season games went under. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The total here is set the same as the regular season meetings between these two teams. Shot Quality is an advanced metrics site that measures how many points should have been scored based on the quality of shots taken. In both regular season games, Shot Quality believes the game should have stayed well below this total (132 and 130 points). 

The under is 57% at Madison Square Garden in college hoops games with a total of 136 or higher in the last 15 years. The under is 27-12 in postseason games at MSG with a total of 136 or higher. 

Villanova is the slowest paced team in the Big East. I think they have a good lead here and grind down the pace with the lead late. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Seton Hall Pirates are expected to be without point guard Kadary Richmond. Without him their offense looks a lot different. Seton Hall has been playing slower at the end of the season without Richmond on the floor. They have been making tough shots, but this game is played at tough shooting venue Madison Square Garden.

DePaul has had another terrible season. The Blue Demons lack offensive firepower. This is a team that doesn't share the ball well. They settle into one on one spots.

The under is 57% at Madison Square Garden in college hoops games with a total of 136 or higher in the last 15 years. The under is 27-12 in postseason games at MSG with a total of 136 or higher. 

Both regular season games stayed under this total as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Pitt Panthers have changed things up a bit this year and are playing faster and have been better on offense. Pitt hasn't been able to be slowed down tempo wise by many teams so far this year. Which team has slowed them down? Georgia Tech. Two of Pitt's three slowest games of the year have been against Georgia Tech. 

Georgia Tech just played a grinder yesterday against Florida State (59 possessions) and FSU is a team that normally likes to get out and run too. 

The last game these two played had a total of 137. This is a win or go home game for GA Tech, and Pitt might miss the NCAA Tournament if they lose this game too. A lot is on the line. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Northern Arizona Lumberjacks stunned the Eastern Washington Eagles a couple days ago. Montana has taken care of business to reach this game. 

The two games played between these two teams in the regular season were 138 and 133 points in regulation. Both were played to a slower than average pace. The advanced metrics site ShotQuality believes based on the quality of shots the two games in the regular season should have finished 136 (after overtime) and 128 (in the second game). 

This is a win or go home on a neutral floor. Both teams take a lot of 3 point jumpers. Both of these offenses actually rate in the bottom 10% of all teams in the country in terms of quality of shot. They do both have good outside shooters, but the defense should be a bit better in a game like this and a neutral floor is a positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The St. Peter's Peacocks have the worst offense in the MAAC. They were especially bad away from home this year. Fairfield's defense was actually significantly better on the road and on neutral floors than at home this year. 

The two regular season meetings between these two teams both stayed under this very low posted total. Those games played to an average pace of 61 possessions (very slow). 

St. Peter's has played its last five games to a pace of 61 possessions or slower. 

Fairfield has been one of the best defenses in the MAAC all season long. 

This game is played at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City. It's a large venue where shooters have had a tough time in the past. The under has hit by an average of more than 4 points in all games played at this building.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chattanooga Mocs and Furman Paladins meet in the Southern Conference Championship game tonight. Chattanooga beat Furman by a point in overtime last year in the finals. These two teams look a little different this year, but the stakes are extremely high again here.

The two regular season meetings both went to Furman. Both of those games stayed under this total. This is the biggest game of the year for both of these teams. 

The game is played at Cherokee Center in North Carolina. The under is 29-17 in games played here. 

Both of these teams shoot a ton of 3 pointers. They are both capable of shooting it well, and if they are on fire from 3, this one will go over the total. However, both defenses are above average defending the long range jumper, and the tempo is likely to slow down here with so much on the line. It being at a neutral site that is tough for shooters is a positive as well.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* North Dakota State and South Dakota meet late Sunday in the Summit League Conference Tournament.

These two teams played two games in the regular season that stayed under this total. Those games finished at 134 and 133 points. 

South Dakota relies very heavily on three point shooting. The Coyotes have shot it well, but North Dakota State is third in the Summit League in 3 point defense. This is a neutral site too where the shooting backdrop isn't ideal. 

North Dakota State has played better defense down the stretch. Their last four games have all finished at 140 total points or fewer. 

If the long range shots are falling this could go over, but I think the pace will be pretty slow and neither team gets to the line much or gets second chances very often at all.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Summit League's top team starts postseason play today as Oral Roberts takes on North Dakota. 

Oral Roberts and North Dakota played twice in the regular season. Those games finished at 156 points and 143 points total. This game will be played on a neutral floor in South Dakota that has been good to under bettors in the past. It is win or go home. 

Shot Quality tracks what the score should have been based on the quality of shot: here are the results from the first two games

156 (155 should have been) 

143 (140 should have been)

Vanover is a good defensive force inside for Oral Roberts and North Dakota will have to settle for a lot of outside jumpers here.

In a win or go home game on a tough neutral court this is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Florida Gators defense isn't even close to the same without Castleton on the floor. They allowed 82 against Kentucky and 88 against Vanderbilt in their first two games without him. Georgia scored 67 last game due to terrible outside shooting. 

Florida should get their points against a woeful LSU defense. The Gators have been playing a bit faster in the last few games, and LSU has the worst defense in the SEC. 

LSU should get second chance opportunities throughout.

The over has been cashing in at a very high rate here at the end of the season and many of those overs have been from late season games between mediocre teams with little to play for. That has been a good long term angle as well. This one fits.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors have an excellent defense that has given the Northeast Conference problems all season long. Merrimack is allowing 0.88 points per possession in the conference. That is just fantastic from a defensive efficiency standpoint.

These two teams have played each other twice in the regular season. Those games finished at 114 and 122 points. 

This is a win or go home game where the tempo tends to slow down and the defenses give a ton of effort. 

Merrimack's offense is bottom three in the country in efficiency. Both teams defend well without fouling. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UC Davis Aggies and Long Beach State 49ers meet in the regular season finale for both teams on Saturday afternoon. 

The first game between these two played to an extremely fast tempo of 77 possessions. The shooting numbers in that game were ugly. It still got to 147 total points. With normalized shooting numbers, I expect this one to be a higher scoring game.

Long Beach State and UC Davis both have big edges on the offensive glass. There should be a bunch of second chance opportunities here. Both teams live at the line and free throws should help boost this point total a lot.

I think the pace stays quick and the shooting improves some here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The first game between Rice and FIU easily cleared this number. FIU and Rice both want to pressure and run when they can. 

FIU was without star scorer Denver Jones for a few games and that slowed down their offensive a lot, but he is back now and scoring a bunch once again. 

Rice gets a lot of open outside looks against this FIU aggressive defense, and the Owls are solid shooters especially on their home floor.

The pace should be there or a high scoring game in this one. 

The over has been cashing in at a very high rate here at the end of the season and many of those overs have been from late season games between mediocre teams with little to play for. That has been a good long term angle as well. This one fits.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The first two times these teams met the final totals were 131 and 134 points. Shot Quality is an advanced metrics site that measures the quality of each shot and their system tells what the score should have been based on the quality of shot taken. In the two games the final totals should have been 135 and 128 points according to Shot Quality. Both are comfortably under the current total.

The posted total here is set higher than it was in the regular season games between these two. Why should it be? They stayed under the total in two slow paced games in the regular season. This is a win or go home game played on a neutral floor that is 24-14 to the under.

This number is a few points too high.

Take the under.