*4 Star Sunday NBA Early Bird Special* The Boston Celtics were first in the NBA in defensive efficiency this year. Boston allowed 1.015 points per possession. They gave up 1.324 points per possession in Game 3 against Milwaukee. That isn't likely to happen again. 

Even with that ridiculous shooting by Milwaukee, the game very narrowly went past this posted total. I expect Brad Stevens (a tremendous coach), to have his team ready to go in Game 4, especially on the defensive end.

The last two games have seen shooting numbers in an extremely high area overall for both teams. Two games ago Boston averaged 1.301 and Milwaukee 1.149 points per possession (above average). 

The first two games saw posted totals of 200 and 199.5, and scoring efficiency averages I ran for this game were all in the high 190's. 

This number is inflated thanks to great shooting performances from the two teams in the last couple games. The tempo should stay slow and the defense should improve.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* The Indiana Pacers played at the slowest tempo in the NBA in their last 25 regular season games. The Pacers changed their style of play in the middle of the season, and it worked very nicely when they slowed things down and turned the game into a halfcourt battle. 

The Indiana Pacers have slowed the game down nicely in the first two games of this series. Those two games have played to the two slowest paced games between the Pacers and Cavs this year. Indiana will try to do the same again here. 

Cleveland and Indiana both rank in the top five in the NBA at least free throws for their opponent. Indiana also ranks in the bottom five in the NBA in least free throws attempted. 

Here's a basic, but strong NBA playoffs first round system that this game fits:

-A total of 191 or higher

-Home team win percentage of 61% or less on the year

-Road team win percentage of 50%-68% on the year

The under is a whopping 77-33 (70%) in the last 110 games that fit this system. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* The Pittsburgh Pirates offense has started the season on fire, but I don't expect them to be able to keep it up. Several guys in this lineup are hitting far above their career highs, and I expect regression to the mean. The Pirates will come back to the pack. 

Jameson Taillon is a guy I'm very high on though. Taillon has always been a guy with great control all the way up through the minors and in his time in the bigs so far. Taillon is excellent at inducing weak contact as well, which can minimize damage nicely in most situations.

Jake Arrieta obviously has a high upside as well. He hasn't been great so far this year, but he is very capable. 

The weather is a big factor here. Temperatures around 40 degrees with wind blowing in about 15 mph make the under a nice value in my opinion. These early season unders with the wind blowing in on cold days have been great to bettors in the past decade.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona Diamondbacks host the San Francisco Giants on Wednesday night at Chase Field. This is no longer one of the best hitters parks in the majors. The humidor put in place here has significantly slowed down the scoring here. It will take some time for bettors to get accustomed to Chase Field not being a great hitters park.

Robbie Ray has had bad career numbers at Chase Field, but that was before the humidor. He faces a light hitting Giants team today, and the Giants are likely to be without Evan Longoria. 

Jake Lamb is out for Arizona and he is a key bat in the middle of the lineup. Chris Stratton has pitched really well, and he has been a highly rated prospect in the past. He seems to be coming into his own.

Phil Cuzzi is the home plate umpire here, and Cuzzi has seen 55.1% of games in his career behind the plate stay under the total. His strikes called percentage are always among the top 10 umpires in the league.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Utah Jazz had the best defense in the NBA by a wide margin in the second half of the season. Utah wasn't good defensively in game one. Oklahoma City made 14/29 shots from 3 point range. Paul George nailed 8/11 from long range. The Thunder averaged better than 1.12 points per possession. Utah allowed less than 1 point per possession over the last 3 months of the season. 

Utah knocked down 11/28 from 3 point range as well. The Thunder were poor in their pick and roll defense, and they should improve in that area in game two.

These two teams didn't play a regular season game that went above 194. Though these teams are much different now (no Roberson for OKC) and that bumps the total up some, game one looks like an aberration to me.

Mitchell has been a star for Utah this year. He is likely to play here, but he is less than 100 percent.

The defenses should improve here, and the tempo should slow as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oakland A's offense is still underrated. The depth of this offense is much better than it has been in recent season. Oakland has Stephen Piscotty and Johnathan Lucroy batting eighth and ninth in the order, which shows you how deep this lineup truly is right now. 

Oakland has scored at least 8 runs by themselves in four of their last six games. The A's are rolling offensively, and now they face a young righty in Carson Fulmer who walks a bunch of people. That makes him prone to the big inning. Fulmer has a lot of potential, but he's likely to struggle this year. 

Triggs has been pretty good for the A's so far this year, but I see him as about a league average pitcher. The White Sox offense isn't great, but they are good enough to create some scoring chances.

Both bullpens are bad. I see both as bottom 10 in baseball when it comes to bullpens. There should be scoring chances late.

Mark Wegner is a great over umpire and he's behind the dish here. His strikes called and strikeout/walk ratio consistently make him one of the best over umpires in the business.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oakland A's offense is far better this year than it has been in recent years. From top to bottom, this is a lineup that doesn't really have any weaknesses. Oakland ranks third in the majors in weighted on base average. The A's have been really high scoring this year, and their pitching staff isn't very good either. In Oakland's 16 games this year, in 7 of them one team has scored at least 7 runs. 

The White Sox have been inconsistent on offense this year. They do have a lot of quality hitters who are bound to improve in the coming weeks. Guys like Moncada, Davidson, and Abreu are better hitters than they have shown so far this year.

Miguel Gonzalez has lost 2 mph off his fastball, and his swinging strike rate is at a career low of 6.6%. His hard hit allowed rate is also at a career high.

Trevor Cahill walks far too many batters, and he isn't likely to get very deep into the game. The A's middle relief is a weakness.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Detroit Tigers host the Baltimore Orioles on Tuesday night. Andrew Cashner takes on Francisco Liriano. With the way these two guys are pitching at this stage in their careers, this total is too low. 

Cashner has managed to get outs in some really strange ways the last couple years. Cashner had a 3.40 ERA last year, but his FIP and xFIP were 4.61 and 5.30. He got very lucky. In two starts this year, he has a 2.50 ERA with a 5.67 FIP and a 4.79 xFIP. His swinging strike rate is so low that he is reliant on batters hitting it at fielders, and I don't expect that to continue at the rate it has.

Speaking of swinging strike rates- Francisco Liriano routinely had swinging strike rates of 13.5% or better for several years, but it dropped all the way to 9.6% last year. So far this year it is only 6.8%. Liriano has always had control problems, so not being able to strike out nearly as many is a big problem for him.

The Orioles offense is bad in general, but they are 12th in wOBA against lefties. The Tigers offense isn't as bad as they have looked so far this year.

The wind here is blowing out about 15 mph, and Comerica is a park where wind blowing out has made a huge difference in the past.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Predators and Avalanche have met six times this year. Only one of those contests finished under 5.5 goals, and that was a 4-1 contest. Four of the six have seen at least 7 goals scored. 

Colorado is without their top goalie (Varlamov) and Bernier is one of the weakest goalies in the playoffs. Nashville puts a bunch of shots on goal, and they are good at creating high danger scoring chances. 

Colorado looks to push the pace of the game, and they are even better at forcing the issue when they are on home ice as they are for this one. The Avalanche aren't only without Varlamov. The loss of Erik Johnson hurts this team's defense quite a bit as well. Colorado's defense was never great, and without those two it is much weaker.

Colorado will generate plenty of shots with their fast pace, and Rinne has been below average against Colorado in his career.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers put on a shooting clinic in game one. They shot a ridiculous 18/28 from three point range in blowing out the Heat 130-103. The Heat also made 12/26 from three point range in game one. 

Philadelphia averaged 1.276 points per possession in game one. They averaged 1.074 points per possession on the season. Even if you want to say the 76ers are better on offense now than they were early in the year (I think that is true), the 76ers only average 1.127 points per possession in their last 10 games. Their shooting percentages should regress. Also important to note is that the 76ers only turned the ball over on 8.5% of their possessions in game one, and on the year they average turnovers on 16.1% of possessions. 

Miami shot a little better than average from the floor in game one as well. 

These two defenses ranked third and seventh in the NBA in points per possession allowed in the regular season. There's no reason to expect the great shooting to continue.

Is it possible that the red hot shooting will continue? Of course it is. Still, all of my tempo based efficiency projections point to a total of 209-210 here. This number is inflated because of recent shooting numbers from the 76ers. Though it is a hard bet to make when you see the 76ers throw in everything in game one, I have to take the value on the under here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Los Angeles Dodgers will start Clayton Kershaw on Sunday afternoon against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Dodgers are off to a slow start to the season, and this is a big game for them against a hot Arizona team. I don't have to tell you how dominant Clayton Kershaw has been over the years, and his numbers against the Diamondbacks are very good.

Zack Godley has turned into a really nice pitcher for Arizona. He has a 0.64 ERA and an impressive 1.55 FIP through two starts. He throws hard and has good movement on multiple pitches. 

The under is 4-0 in Godley's last 4 road starts. The under is 4-0 in the Dodgers last 4 during game 3 of a series. The under is 6-0 in Kershaw's last 6 starts on six days of rest. A combined 14-0 angle. 

The Diamondbacks weren't very good against lefties last year, and the Dodgers offense has struggled without Justin Turner. 

Expect a low scoring game here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Portland Blazers host the New Orleans Pelicans in game one of this playoff series.

Portland has been a great under team this year. The Blazers defense has been far better than anyone expected. Portland ranks 8th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They rank 19th in the NBA in tempo, so they are slower than average. In the last 12 games alone, they rank even slower at 25th in tempo.

New Orleans plays very quickly, and that's why we have a high total here. Still, the Pelicans are a different team than they were earlier this year. The Pelicans have Emeka Okafor playing a lot of minutes now, and he's much better on the defensive end than the offensive end. Solomon Hill fits in that category as well. DeMarcus Cousins was an offensive force, and these guys are a big offensive downgrade. The opposite is true on defense. New Orleans ranks 13th in defensive efficiency for the year, but they are an impressive 3rd in defensive efficiency in their last 15 games.

The most recent and most important game between these two this year was 107-103. I expect a similar type of game here. Things usually slow down a bit in the playoffs, and I think these two defenses are both top ten defenses in the NBA with their current rosters.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tampa Bay Rays have one of the worst offenses in baseball. Tampa Bay has scored 2 runs or less six times already this year. The Rays lack any reliable hitter to contribute in the middle of the order. 

The Philadelphia Phillies offense has been good so far this year, but they haven't exactly faced tremendous pitching staffs thus far. While I think the Phillies offense is pretty good, I think their numbers are overvalued offensively right now.

In Velasquez and Faria we have two young pitchers with a lot of talent. Velasquez had a terrible outing against the Braves in his first start, but a closer look there shows it was some terrible luck. Braves hitters had a batting average on balls in play of .643 (around .300 is average) in that one. Velasquez has a 5.19 ERA, but his FIP is 1.78. 

Faria was crushed by the Red Sox in his last outing, and both of his starts so far this year have been against Boston. The Red Sox have one of the best offenses in baseball, and they'll make a lot of pitchers look bad this year. 

The under is 25-9 in the Rays last 34 home games. The under is 4-1 in Faria's last 5 home starts.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Twins start Jose Berrios here. Berrios broke out in a big way with a great season last year, and his stuff is elite. Berrios has held White Sox hitters to a .132 batting average in 68 at bats. He has tremendous strikeout stuff. Berrios has a 3.29 ERA through two games this season, but his FIP is only 2.27 and his SIERA is 2.71. He's pitched well.

Lucas Giolito has loads of potential. His consistency hasn't been very good yet, but I think he could experience a big breakout season this year like Berrios did a year ago. He has good command of several pitches, and there is lots of movement on all of his pitches.

The weather is a big factor here. The temperature will be in the low 40's with wind blowing in at 8-10 mph. In the past 10 years, in the first month of the season in MLB with winds blowing in at 7 mph or greater and a temperature of 59 degrees or colder the under is hitting 63% of the time. This game fits that system.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Capitals and Columbus Blue Jackets both play at a fast pace. These teams have a history of some high scoring games against each other.

Phillip Grubauer and Sergei Bobrovsky have both been good this year, but Grubauer doesn't have playoff experience and that hurts a lot here. Bobrovsky's career save percentage in the playoffs is below 89%. There are question marks here. 

The over is 5-0 in the Capitals last 5 games when playing on three days of rest or more. The over is 13-3 in the Blue Jackets last 16 road games. 

The first round of the NHL playoffs has actually been good for overs long-term, especially plus money overs.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets play on Wednesday night in a game that will decide who gets into the playoffs and who has to watch the playoffs from home.

While both of these teams have been bad overall on defense this year and good on offense, they do both play at a slow pace. The pace of the game should be even slower since the game means so much in this case. This is essentially a one-game playoff to decide who continues.

There are a couple interesting numbers to show that these two are playing harder on defense of late as well. In the last five games, both of these teams rank in the top 9 in the NBA in defensive efficiency. In their last 3 games only, both rank in the top five in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They are both in the bottom 10 in the league on the year in that number. They have tightened up the defense as the games have gotten more important.

With so much on the line, this is a high total. Look for a game where both teams slow things down and try to take care of the basketball. The defensive effort should be much better than an average NBA game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Rays are having a "Bullpen Day" and starting Chirinos here. The Rays bullpen doesn't have very good depth, and that should show itself over time. On the other side, the White Sox start James Shields who I consider one of the worst pitchers in baseball. Shields velocity is down 3 mph from a few years ago, and he isn't getting any swinging strikes or strikeouts. Even a poor offense like the Rays should be able to get to him. The White Sox bullpen isn't good either.

The wind is blowing out and it is a much milder temperature today in Chicago as well. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Marlins are going to be one of the worst offenses in baseball this year. Miami has scored 2 runs or less in four of their last five games. The Marlins have hit lefties pretty well so far this year, but they have been dreadful (.203 average) against right handed pitching.

Jacob Degrom is a very solid right handed pitcher. Degrom has pitched much better in the first half of the season in his career than the second half. Degrom's jump in swinging strike rate in the past year suggests to me that he is pointing toward even better things ahead.

Caleb Smith has good strikeout stuff, but he has struggled with walks. The Mets have a lineup that should be better against right handed pitching than lefties this year, and Smith is a lefty.

DJ Reyburn is the umpire here, and he is a good under umpire. In Reyburn's career, the under is 118-92 in his games behind the dish. He'll help both pitchers on the corners.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star MLB Sunday Night Baseball CASH* The Washington Nationals host the New York Mets here in a divisional rivalry. The home plate umpire for this game is Mark Ripperger and he is one of the best under umpires in the majors. His strike zone will benefit the pitchers quite a bit through this contest.

The weather is a huge factor. With temperatures dropping in the low 40's during the game, and winds of 10-12 mph blowing in, this is a great spot for an under.

There is a strong weather angle that this game fits: In the first 20 games of the season when the temperature is 58 degrees or lower and the wind is blowing in at least 8 mph and the total is 7.5 or higher- the under is a whopping 120-64 (65.2%).

Both bullpens are good and I think this is a good price on the under given the umpire draw and the weather.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Indians lineup isn't producing right now. They'll be much better over the course of the season, but the conditions in Cleveland right now aren't helping at all. The temperature is expected to be about 30 degrees at time of first pitch here and the wind blowing in at 10 mph. 

The first two games in this series have had similar weather, and those games were 3-2 and 1-0. 

Mike Clevinger has been an underrated piece for the Indians. The Royals lineup will be one of the worst in the majors this year.

The under is 45-22-3 in the Indians last 72 games vs. an AL Central foe. The under is 20-7-1 in Clevinger's last 28 starts.

Ted Barrett is behind the plate and he is a bit of an under umpire as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NHL Totals TAKEDOWN* The Colorado Avalanche host the St. Louis Blues in a game that will decide who gets the final spot in the Western Conference playoffs. This kind of extremely important game between two quality teams is a strong under angle in the NHL at the end of the regular season.

St. Louis has had issues on offense all year. The Blues are 24th in the NHL in goals scored this year. They are 30th in the NHL in power play goals scored. 

Colorado has gotten the fewest shots on goal of any team in the NHL this year. The Avalanche have been fortunate to score as many times as they have. 

Things should tighten up in a game that means so much to both sides. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Antonio Spurs host the Portland Blazers in a battle of teams who will be fighting hard for the playoff standings. Portland is in the playoffs, but they are working to secure the third seed. San Antonio could still miss the playoffs if they can't things around late in the regular season.

These types of games have proven very good to under bettors in the past, and I see no reason why that would change going forward. As things tighten up and slow down, the under holds value.

I leaned strongly to the under here to start with and I have to play it after I see the referee crew for this contest. All 3 refs are big under guys. Between the 3 refs, if you had played the under in all of their career games as a ref- you would be up 79 units. 

The under is 5-0 in Blazers last 5 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of 60% or higher. The under is 4-0 in the Spurs last 4 vs. a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. A 9-0 angle.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Washington Nationals host the New York Mets early Saturday afternoon in a game that will be played in conditions that clearly favor the under. The wind will be blowing in about 12 mph during this game and the temperature will be in the low 40's. In past years, wind in during cold games has been a great moneymaker early in the season. It has started out the same way this year.

Steven Matz has allowed zero runs in 15 innings pitched in Washington. Matz is coming off a bad start, but I do believe he is at least a decent starter, and these conditions should help. Matz has a great 3.10 ERA in the first half of the season during his career.

Gio Gonzalez has a career 3.47 ERA in the first half. Gonzalez has a great 2.93 ERA against the Mets in 23 starts. 

Marty Foster is the home plate umpire here and in his career behind home plate, the under is hitting at a 54.3% clip. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* I see Luis Perdomo as a solid sinker-baller who can keep the ball in the park and induce a lot of double play balls. Perdomo fell victim to some terrible luck in his first outing. He allowed a batting average on balls in play of .583. After the game his ERA sits at 11.25 with his FIP at only 2.46. 

Lance McCullers Jr. is an elite pitcher when pitching at home. In his career when pitching at home, McCullers has a ridiculous 2.39 ERA. His ERA is 3.09 overall in the first half of the season in his career as well.

The Astros bullpen is top three or four in the majors. I see the Padres bullpen as better than league average.

I think this one is a little too high.

Take the under. 

*5 Star NBA TOP Total of the MONTH* The Cleveland Cavaliers go to Philadelphia to take on the 76ers on Friday night. This has turned into a massive game for both teams. These teams are jockeying for third place in the Eastern Conference, and they are just barely ahead of Indiana who sits in 5th place in the Eastern Conference.

Late in the season when two good teams play against each other, I like to look to the under. Here's a great system that tracks something like this. 

*Late in the season (between game 70 and 80 in the season) when teams in the same conference who have both won 60% or more of their games meet the under is a whopping 94-58-2 since 2005. That's 62% wins for the under.

Cleveland has slowed down of late. They are playing at the 28th quickest tempo out of 30 teams in the NBA in their last five games. Philly is only allowing 0.922 points per possession in their last five games, and in their last ten games they are easily first in the NBA in defensive efficiency. 

With this game meaning a lot to both teams, I think they'll both be trying hard on defense. The pace should slow a bit as well. 

The under is 11-1 in the Cavs last 12 games when playing on 0 days of rest. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in the 76ers last 4 playing on one day of rest. A 20-1 trend.

Take the under. TOP Total of the MONTH

*3 Star Play Under* The Canucks and Coyotes have a long history of playing low scoring games against each other. Nine of the last ten games between these two have finished at 5 goals or less. Raanta is an above average goaltender for the Coyotes and their defense has been much improved in recent weeks.

The under is 15-4-2 in the last 21 meetings between these two in Vancouver.

I see this being a low scoring game between two teams who are offensively challenged.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NHL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Florida Panthers host the Boston Bruins. This is a must win game for the Panthers to try to keep their faint playoff hopes alive. 

Late in the season when teams are fighting for a playoff spot or playoff positioning- the under has had great value. A couple systems show this to be true

*Between games 80 and 82 of the season- A home team with a win percentage between 50% and 60% (teams likely to be battling for the playoffs) against a visitor with a win percentage of 50% or higher. The under is 32-11 last 43 in this spot. The under is 10-1 in the last 11 contests that match this spot. 

*Between games 80-82. Both teams with a 50% or higher win percentage and the total is 5.5 or higher. The under is 37-18-3  (67.3%) since 2006. 

Florida has been a home under machine of late, especially against top teams. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a a team with a winning record. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams in Florida. A 13-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Jersey Devils can clinch a playoff berth with a win here. Toronto has been good all season, and they are expected to start their leading goaltender (Anderson) in this one. 

Late in the season when teams are fighting for a playoff spot or playoff positioning- the under has had great value. A couple systems show this to be true

*Between games 80 and 82 of the season- A home team with a win percentage between 50% and 60% (teams likely to be battling for the playoffs) against a visitor with a win percentage of 50% or higher. The under is 32-11 last 43 in this spot. The under is 10-1 in the last 11 contests that match this spot. 

*Between games 80-82. Both teams with a 50% or higher win percentage and the total is 5.5 or higher. The under is 37-18-3  (67.3%) since 2006. 

This game fits these systems. I see this being one where the importance of the game for the home team makes it be more tightly played.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Over* The weather should be a big factor here. Temperatures are chilly, but the wind is howling out to center field. Winds of 20 mph at a minimum are expected to be going all through the contest.

The Twins offense is very solid from top to bottom. I don't see any big weaknesses here. Minnesota should score a lot of runs this year.

Pittsburgh should get a better season out of Polanco this year, and they have some decent young hitters in this lineup.

Ivan Nova and Jake Odorizzi are both pitchers I rate as lower than the league average. Nova is a pitch to contact guy, and Odorizzi  has given up a ton of home runs in the last couple years. 

Both of these bullpens are league average or slightly below on the whole. There should be scoring chances late here as well.

At this low number with the weather- I'm on the over.

Take the over here. 

*3 NCAA BB Championship Game CASH* The Villanova Wildcats shot the lights out on Saturday at the Alamodome. I had the under in that one and lost thanks to their sharpshooting. Kansas' defense was very weak in that game, and the Wildcats buried a bunch of open three-point jumpers. 

Villanova is certainly capable of shooting the ball really well against anyone. This is unquestionably the best offense in the country. Still, this is a neutral court and they are playing against a team that ranks number 3 in KenPomeroy's defensive efficiency ratings. Michigan has the highest ranked defense Villanova has played against all year.

Every number I ran for this one had the total at 141.5 or 142. It's very rare for totals to be higher than my projections in the NCAA Tournament with neutral sites tending to be a fairly big positive for the under. 

This number is higher because of the great shooting from Villanova on Saturday. I'll look to play back on the under after this inflation of the number.

Xavier Simpson is a good defender for Michigan and the Wolverines should be able to put a lot more pressure on the ball and defend the 3 point line a lot better than Kansas. 

The Wolverines are 324th in overall tempo and Villanova is middle of the pack. This game shouldn't be played very fast. 

Both teams do a great job defending without fouling and neither team gets many offensive rebounds.

Take the under. 

*5 Star NBA TOP Total of the WEEK* The Los Angeles Clippers host the Indiana Pacers in an early Sunday afternoon game at Staples Center. The Clippers are on the outside looking in for the playoffs, and this is a game they absolutely have to win. The Pacers are playing for seeding in a tight Eastern Conference race. Both teams have plenty of reasons to be ready to go for this one.

The Indiana Pacers rank dead last in the NBA in tempo of late. Indiana has made a significant change to their style in the second half of the year. The Pacers are last in the NBA in tempo by more than one full possession per game in their last 10 games. 

It's difficult for Indiana games to get this high scoring without some really high shooting numbers because of their ability to slow the game down. The last time these two teams played- there were 213 points scored and the Clippers shot 55% from the floor in that one.

The Pacers have had 18 straight games stay under this total in regulation. 

Early Sunday games have been great under plays in the long run especially in West Coast games. This one gets the added benefit of being a game that both teams badly need when it comes to playoff positioning. 

Take the under. TOP Total of the WEEK 

*3 Star Play Under* Both of these teams are good offenses. They both clearly have the potential to score a lot of points. This is a huge game though, with the winner set to play for a national title, and this kind of a total is often hard to get to in a game of this magnitude.

Villanova has only allowed one team to score more than 1 point per possession against them in the NCAA Tournament (West Virginia averaged 1.03 points per possession). Jay Wright has said of late that he has been extremely happy with the progress his team has made defensively.

Kansas played their best defensive game of the year last game against Duke. The Jayhawks aren't great on defense, but they are likely better than their numbers on the season would suggest.

Both teams rarely get to the line and both teams rarely foul. If the jump shots aren't falling as much as normal, this one should be lower scoring than expected. This is played in the Alamodome which is a very unique shooters backdrop.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas Rangers host the Houston Astros on Friday night. While this is a hitter's ballpark overall, this park plays a lot different with cooler weather and wind blowing in.

The under is a whopping 54-26-7 in the last 87 games in Texas' home games with a temperature of 83 degrees or cooler and wind blowing in from center field. It is expected to be 64 degrees with wind blowing in during this game.

Ron Kulpa is the home plate umpire here, and by record he has been the single best under umpire in the bigs in the last few years. In his career, the under is 57.3% in Kulpa's games behind the plate.

Keuchel is healthy and set for a great year for the Astros. Fister had a decent season last year for the Red Sox and should be helped by Kulpa being behind the dish.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* North Texas and San Francisco play game three of a series to win the College Basketball Invitational. This is a unique format and this game is for all the marbles.

Early in these smaller postseason tournaments, the over has had great value through the years. That isn't the case late in the tournament though. Why? These teams want to be here now, and they want to win the tournament.

The under is 47-26 in the last 73 games in the semifinals or finals of the NIT/CBI/CIT Tournaments. 

These two teams both excel at getting defensive rebounds, so second chance opportunities should be hard to come by. They both shoot a lot of 3 pointers, and both defenses are very good against the 3 ball.

This line is several points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Utah/Penn State NIT CASH* The Utah Utes and Penn State Nittany Lions meet on Thursday night in the NIT Finale. 

Penn State's defense ranks 18th overall in defensive efficiency in the country. Utah ranks 55th in defensive efficiency for the year, but if you look only at recent games Utah's defense has been much better than that.

Utah's average length of possession puts them 320th out of 351 in tempo, so they are very slow. Penn State is 248th in that same statistic. The tempo should stay slow here, and both defenses will be plenty motivated.

The NIT is played at Madison Square Garden which is the best under venue in college basketball. It's a tough shooting backdrop here, and the numbers prove it.

In the NIT semifinals/finals- totals of 129.5 or higher have gone 26-7 to the under against the closing line.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Opening Day Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Dodgers start Clayton Kershaw here. Kershaw is amazing against everyone, but he's at his absolute best against the Giants. 

Kershaw has a ridiculous 1.60 ERA in 41 games against the Giants. That's 297 and 1/3 innings of domination. I don't see any reason to believe Kershaw will be any less dominant here. Backing Kershaw is a top five bullpen for the Dodgers.

Ty Blach has been great against NL West teams. Blach has allowed only a .286 weighted on base average (wOBA) against the Dodgers. The Dodgers offense is without Justin Turner due to injury, and that's a huge loss in the middle of the order.

The under is 11-1 in Blach's last 12 games against an NL West foe. The under is 23-7-2 in Kershaw's last 32 games started against the Giants.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Utah Jazz are first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last eight games. The Boston Celtics are fifth. Utah is 14th in offensive efficiency in that time. Boston is 25th.

The Celtics continue to defend well, but without Irving and Smart this offense has really struggled. Marcus Morris is very questionable for this game as well. 

On the year, Boston is number one in overall defensive efficiency in the NBA. Utah is number two. 

Utah's defense is on another level at home. They are giving up 1.054 points per possession on the road this year. They are allowing only 0.98 points per possession at home. That is first in the NBA in defensive efficiency at home.

Boston is first in the NBA in defensive efficiency on the road allowing only 1.014 points per possession on the road.

When Kyrie Irving isn't on the floor this year, Boston's tempo has been the slowest of any team in the league. 

Signs point to a low scoring game between two very good defenses.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The NIT is a tournament where we've seen a ton of overs through the years, but once you get late in the tournament things change drastically. Earlier in the tournament, many of the teams aren't very interested. Once you get to the semifinals, the teams who are there are plenty motivated to win the whole thing. 

Also of note is the fact that this game is played at Madison Square Garden. This is the best under arena in the country. 

In the NIT Semifinals/Finals- the under is 24-7 in the last 31 games with a total of 130 or higher. 

Madison Square Garden unders are at about 60% in all neutral site games in college basketball in the last ten seasons. 

Penn State and Mississippi State are both teams who are significantly better on defense than offense. Look for this one to stay low scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Golden State Warriors host the Utah Jazz on Sunday night. Utah lit up the Golden State defense for 129 points in their last meeting. I don't think Golden State will forget that one. 

Golden State's injury issues have gotten severe. Draymond Green is expected to play here, but Curry, Thompson, and Durant are all out. Other key backups are questionable as well. Golden State's potent offense isn't nearly as potent right now. In the last five games with all these injuries, Golden State is 22nd in offensive efficiency in the NBA. Defensively, they are playing very well. They are 4th in the NBA in that time on defense. Green coming back helps the defense a bunch.

Utah has been the best defense in the NBA by a wide margin in the last ten games. Expect that strong defense to continue here. Utah will look to slow the game down as well.

The numbers show Sunday is the best under day in the NBA in the long run by a large margin. The under has proven to have big value in the NBA late in the year when two good teams face off. This fits both and I like the value here quite a bit.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Top Total of the WEEK* The Oklahoma City Thunder and Portland Blazers meet in OKC on Sunday in a game that means a ton in the playoff standings. Right now, the Blazers are third in the Western Conference. Oklahoma City is fourth and only one game behind them. 

The Thunder have been a great under team against other top teams. The under is 12-3 in their last 15 vs. a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. The under is also 19-9 in their last 28 vs. a team with a winning record overall.

This is a higher total than any of their first three meetings against each other were. I don't think this one should be the highest total yet this year when this game means so much to both teams and we are near the end of the regular season. 

Sunday is the best under day in the NBA in the long run by a large margin. The under has proven to have big value in the NBA late in the year when two good teams face off. This fits both and I like the value here quite a bit.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Islanders and Chicago Blackhawks meet in a game that should feature a ton of shots on goal and high quality scoring chances.

The numbers show that late in the season two teams with nothing to play for makes the over have more value. Neither of these teams have anything to play for now.

These are two of the worst defenses in the NHL. Both of these teams have been in terrible form on defense of late too. Chicago has allowed 26 goals in their last 6 contests. They have allowed a minimum of 5 in each of those. The Islanders have allowed 6 goals or more three times in their last five.

Last time these two met it was a 7-3 final with 85 shots on goal. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Friday Late Night BAILOUT* The Boston Celtics are first in the NBA in defensive efficiency for the season as a whole. The Portland Blazers are 7th. Portland and Boston both play slightly slower than the league average as far as tempo. 

Kyrie Irving is out for the Celtics here. Also out are Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown. In their last five games without those guys- Boston is averaging only 0.981 points per possession on offense. That is 28th in the NBA. 

Portland is a good offensive team, but Boston's defense is solid and the Blazers have shown to be a team that slows down the pace if they have the lead late.

Two good teams late in the season is a good under angle. From game 60-80 of the regular season- when both teams have a win percentage of 60% or higher, the under is cashing at a really impressive 61% clip in the last ten years.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Duke Blue Devils have switched to the zone, and it has worked very well. Duke's defense now ranks eighth in the country in defensive efficiency. Since they switched to the zone, they have been top five in the country defensively. 

Syracuse ranks fifth in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Orange use that excellent matchup zone to keep opponents uncomfortable. The Orange are also slowing the game down more than ever in the NCAA Tournament. All 3 of their games have paced to 60 possessions. 

Syracuse relies heavily on getting to the line to get some offensive production. Duke is first in the nation when it comes to defending without fouling. 

The under in the Sweet 16 overall since 2005 is 56-46. The under when a team is favored by 7.5 or more is 17-7. Duke is favored big here, and they do a nice job slowing the game down when they have a big lead late.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Villanova Wildcats were easily the best offense in the nation this year. Villanova is averaging a whopping 1.276 points per possession on the season. Villanova has a wealth of long range shooters. They have five guys who put up a ton of 3's and all of them shoot 39.1% or better from long range.

West Virginia this year is the best offense Bob Huggins has had since coming to West Virginia. They rank 10th in the country in offensive efficiency. Jevon Carter is a big reason why. Carter shoots 40% from long range and 86% from the line. Daxter Miles has become a nice offensive player as well. 

West Virginia is much weaker on defense this year than they have been the last two years. They are 300th out of 351 teams in the country in 3 point field goal percentage defense. West Virginia also fouls at one of the 15 highest rates in the country. Villanova shoots 40.2% from long range and 77.4% from the free throw line. Barring a rare off night shooting, Nova should put up quite a few points here.

Villanova's defense has typically been top five in the nation of late, but they are 20th this year. West Virginia should get a lot of second chances against a Nova frontline that doesn't have as much bulk. 

West Virginia will keep using the press to push the pace, and I think this one goes over the number.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Red HOT Totals CASH* The Indiana Pacers rank 29th out of 30 teams in the NBA in tempo in their last 10 games. Indiana also ranks fourth in defensive efficiency in that 10 game period. The Pacers rate 25th in offensive efficiency during that span.

The Clippers rank fourth in the NBA in tempo in their last ten. The Clippers are 12th in offensive efficiency and 20th in defensive efficiency. 

Both of these teams have actually been better defensively in non-conference games. The Pacers have played two possessions per game slower in their home games as they do a better job controlling the tempo. The Clippers have played one possession per game slower on the road as well.

In their last 19 games the Pacers have played one game that has gone over this posted total.

This is a late season game that means quite a bit to both teams- and that is a positive for the under. The Clippers still have a chance to get in the playoffs, and the Pacers are in a big battle for positioning in the Eastern Conference.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Utah Jazz have been an under machine at home in recent years. Utah is always good defensively, but they are elite defensively on their home floor. The Jazz have been the best defense in the NBA at home for the season as a whole.

Of late Utah's defense has been on a whole different level. Utah is allowing only 0.908 points per possession in their last ten games. That's easily best in the NBA. In that time frame, the Spurs are second on defense and they are allowing 0.997 points per possession.

Utah's offense is 20th in efficiency in their last ten games. Atlanta's offense is 28th in the NBA in offensive efficiency. The Hawks have actually been better on defense on the road than at home this year.

Utah games have gone under the total at a high rate against bad teams. In Utah's last 181 home games against a team with a win percentage of less than 50%- the under is 111-70 (61.3% unders). It is 6-1 in the last 7 in this spot. 

Look for Utah to control the style of play here and keep this one under the total.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The St. Mary's Gaels have been one of my favorite under teams in the last few seasons. Randy Bennett's team plays the same style of basketball every year. They are a very slow paced team who is extremely efficient on offense and solid on defense. 

St. Mary's ranks 341st out of 351 in the nation in tempo. They will slow this game down. 

Washington has struggled offensively this year. This is a team that shoots a lot of contested jumpers. Washington averages 1.064 points per possession at home. They average only 0.945 points per possession on the road. The Huskies zone defense is unique and St. Mary's has been slightly less efficient against zones than man to man defense this year.

I expect St. Mary's to win this game and the spread suggests a fairly comfortable win. If that is the case, it helps the under. The Gaels are excellent at slowing the game down when they have a lead in the second half.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Michigan Wolverines are very good at controlling the pace of the game. Michigan is 332nd in the nation in tempo. The Wolverines are 4th in the nation in defensive efficiency. It is their improvement on defense that has made this team so much better this year.

Michigan is elite (top 3 in the country) in transition defense. Houston tries to get points in transition, but those should be a lot harder to come by here than normal. The Cougars typically take advantage of offensive rebounds as well, but Michigan is very good on the defensive boards.

Neither team is very good at getting to the free throw line, and I've noticed that refs have in general had a slower whistle in the NCAA Tournament than in the regular season. 

Both teams like to utilize big men at the top of the key as a passer, but both defenses have athletic big men to matchup with them well.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Duke Blue Devils zone defense has been tremendous. Since they moved to that zone, Duke has been a great under team. It has been hard for the oddsmakers to adjust to their slowing teams down so much better on the defensive end. 

Rhode Island has had major problems shooting it from outside down the stretch. They shot only 35.4% from long range for the year. They shot 32.5% from three point range in A 10 action this year. 

Rhode Island is good when using full court pressure at slowing the game down with zone pressure. Look for them to extend that pressure to try to slow Duke's offense some here. Duke has committed an unexpectedly high number of turnovers on the year. 

Duke doesn't foul on defense. The Blue Devils are 2nd in the country at defending without fouling. 

Rhode Island's pressure should create turnovers here, and Duke's zone should force Rhode Island into a lot of bad looks in halfcourt sets.

This is played at a neutral site. When Duke has been favored by 9 or more and the total is 142 or higher in the last 10 years- the under has cashed at 59%.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arkansas Razorbacks and Butler Bulldogs square off in what should be a really good game on Friday afternoon. Arkansas always looks to run, while Butler plays at a moderate pace, but these two teams are more similar than you would think.

Both of these teams are significantly better on offense than defense. Arkansas is 17th in the nation in offensive efficiency. They are 100th in defensive efficiency. Butler is 296th in the nation at defending beyond the 3 point line, and Arkansas is shooting better than 40% from the 3 point line on the year. 

Arkansas is great in transition on offense, and they are also poor in transition defense. Butler uses a lot of cutters in their halfcourt sets, and Arkansas has struggled on defense against offenses that use similar plays.

Butler is great at the free throw line at 77%. Arkansas fouls at one of the highest rates in the country. 

Look for the offenses to have the upper hand. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Georgia State Panthers have a very good coach in Ron Hunter. Hunter has his team playing an excellent zone defense. According to Synergy, the Georgia State zone ranks among the top 10% of zone defenses played in the country this year.

Cincinnati is second in the country in defensive efficiency. The Bearcats contest everything well, and Georgia State isn't going to get a bunch of open looks from 3 point range like they usually get in league play. 

Georgia State isn't likely to speed the game up when they are packing in a zone and trying to make Cincinnati beat them over the top. Cincinnati ranks 322nd overall in tempo in the country. 

Cincinnati and Georgia State have both played some very low scoring games on neutral courts so far this season. Neutral courts and a lot on the line are usually good for unders. Bridgestone Arena hosts this one, and this is probably the best under venue in the first round of the NCAA Tournament because of a tricky shooting backdrop. The under is 36-26 in the last 62 at Bridgestone.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Houston Cougars play in an American Athletic Conference where nearly no one is willing to run with them. Houston wants to play quickly, and they'll get the chance here against San Diego State. 

San Diego State Coach Brian Dutcher made it a point of emphasis for the team to play quickly this year. The Aztecs rank 70th in shortest average possession length in the country. They will look to push in this one.

Houston is excellent on the offensive glass, and San Diego State hasn't played many teams who are good on the offensive glass. I expect Houston to create plenty of second chance opportunities.

Both defenses are pretty solid, but their numbers may look a bit better than they actually are because they don't play against many good offenses in their league. 

I think the pace will be there and this line is a few points too low.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Gonzaga Bulldogs have gotten much better defensively late in the season. Mark Few expressed concern about their defense midway through the year, and the defense improved in a big way near the end of the year. Gonzaga has plenty of athleticism and length to contest jumpers. 

UNC Greensboro plays a very unique zone press that is designed to slow the game down. They will look to make Gonzaga take a lot of time getting the ball up court, and prevent transition baskets. According to Synergy, UNC Greensboro is the number one ranked transition defense in the country. Since Gonzaga gets a bunch of baskets in transition normally, this should give them some trouble.

This game is played at 11:30 am local time, and that is a help for the under as well, especially on a neutral site.

Look for this one to be a little sloppier than expected.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Huskies offense is reliant on being able to get to the line. Washington takes a lot of bad jump shots, and if they aren't getting to the free throw line for freebies they can go through scoring droughts. 

Boise State has been very good at defending without fouling this year. They are first in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage, which is huge for them. Washington struggles with defensive rebounding out of the zone, but Boise State hasn't been good at getting offensive boards.

Washington is 152nd in the country in offensive efficiency. They are 63rd in defensive efficiency. Boise State is 78th in offensive efficiency and Washington is 42nd in defensive efficiency. 

With the line inflated with over money coming in early here, I like the value on the under.

I see these as two teams who are good at making the other team work hard for each shot. I suspect these two will be invested in this game and that is good for defense and the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UIC Flames host the St Francis PA Red Flash tonight in a CIT contest. Unlike the NIT, there are no rule changes in this tournament so it will just be the normal 3 point shot length and normal foul situations. 

Postseason smaller tournaments have been great to over bettors in the past, and I think this is another spot where the over holds value. UIC plays at the 21st fastest tempo in the country. St Francis PA is 297th on defense when it comes to efficiency, but they are a solid 133rd on the offensive end.

UIC will turn this into a track meet, and they should win as well. St Francis will have to keep playing quick to try to catch up.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The St. Mary's Gaels play at the 341st tempo in the country out of 351 teams. St. Mary's isn't likely to be one of those teams who change the way they play in the NIT or a smaller postseason tournament (many teams do play faster). Still, their number has been bet up quickly just like the other games in these tournaments.

The NIT is experimenting with a lot of rule changes this year. One is moving the 3 point line back 20 inches. That in and of itself should help the under a bit especially in a game where both teams shoot a bunch of 3 point shots. The game being played in quarters shouldn't make much of a difference here. Neither of these teams foul very much.

Southeastern Louisiana has had major trouble scoring against good teams this year. They could only score 50 points against Valpo and only 50 points against Notre Dame. SE Louisiana plays at the 298th tempo in the country.

St. Mary's is well known for slowing things down to an extremely slow level once they have a big lead. They should control this game from the beginning.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Davidson Wildcats and Rhode Island Rams have met twice this year. The first game was 131 points and the second was 124 points. This one is on a neutral site, and Davidson must win this game to get into the NCAA Tournament. If anything, I would expect a slower tempo in this game. 

Davidson has played their first two A 10 Tournament games at only 56 and 58 possessions. They averaged a whopping 1.39 points per possession on Friday and a ridiculous 1.41 points per possession on Saturday.

Rhode Island has given Davidson trouble in the past with their aggressive defense that doesn't allow many looks from three point range. Rhode Island is first in the A 10 in 3 point field goal percentage defense. Davidson shoots the most 3's in the conference, and they are very good at them.

Davidson plays at the 335th tempo out of 351 teams in the country. Rhode Island is middle of the pack at 145th. 

In the last seven meetings between these two teams, only one has topped 131 points in regulation. In a game of this importance, I'll side with the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Montana Grizzlies take on the Eastern Washington Eagles in a battle to decide who gets to the NCAA Tournament from the Big Sky Conference. 

Montana is the best defense in this conference by a large margin. Eastern Washington is third in the conference in defensive efficiency.

Eastern Washington slows the tempo down almost as much as anyone in the conference. Montana has had some games where they go very slowly as well. I think a game of this importance is likely to play to a slower tempo.

Both teams are playing for the third straight day, and conference tournament finals where both teams are tired have been strong to the under in the long run.

Take the under. 

*This line has moved down since I selected it this morning. I would play this for a 4 star rating down to 137.5 and 3 star down to 135.5. Thank you.* 

*4 Star Play Under* Both regular season meetings between these two stayed more than 10 points under this posted total. Now, they are playing at Honda Center in Anaheim, which is clearly a big under facility. This is a hockey arena with tough shooting backdrops. These are two teams who are accustomed to playing in small arenas. The shooting numbers should be expected to be lower than average.

Both teams play at a relatively slow pace, and this is obviously a very important game for both of them with it being win or go home.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The line drop here has been so big that I have to take the over. These two teams commit more fouls than any other teams in the Big 12. There should be a ton of free throws attempted in this one. Both West Virginia and Texas Tech are excellent on the offensive glass, and both struggle with defensive rebounding. Second chance points should be key here as well.

The Red Raiders defense for the season has been great, but in their last few games it has fallen off badly. They are allowing 0.914 points per possession on the year. In their last five games, they are allowing 1.141 points per possession. 

Both regular season games went over this number, and this isn't an arena that has been strong to the under like some of the other neutral sites. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Utah Valley and Grand Canyon played twice during the regular season. Those two games finished with 124 and 119 points. It was primarily because the game was played at a very slow pace in each of those contests. 

This game means a bunch to both teams. They are one win away for playing for a NCAA Tournament berth. This is on a neutral floor which is a good thing for the under as well.

Grand Canyon is number one in the nation in 3 point percentage defense. Utah Valley relies a lot on 3 pointers on the offensive end.

I think this line is several points too high considering the situation and the style these two have played at in the first two contests.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Pelicans are expected to be without Anthony Davis here. That's a massive hit to their offense. Look for Emeka Okafor to get a lot more minutes here, and Okafor is much better on the defensive end than offense. 

The Pelicans are 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last 10 games. Washington is dead last in the NBA in tempo in their last 10 games.

The Wizards have consistently slowed the game down without John Wall. Otto Porter Jr. is a gametime decision as well.

The referee crew is very strong to the under in their career stats.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Houston Rockets have been much better defensively this year, and they have been great defensively of late. Clint Capela has been key in the frontcourt on defense. 

Houston has actually been better on the road on defense than at home. They are third in the NBA in defensive efficiency in road games. They are 6th in the league in defensive efficiency in their last 12 games overall.

Toronto is second in the league in defensive efficiency in their last 12 games. They are first in the league in defensive efficiency at home. 

Also important is that both teams haven't been playing very fast of late. Toronto ranks 22nd in the NBA in tempo in their last 12 contests. Houston ranks 27th in the NBA in tempo in their last 12 games. 

Both of these offenses are clearly excellent, but this number is very high for two underrated defenses and two teams that aren't playing as quickly as most people believe.

The under is 19-6-1 in the Rockets last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning record when the total is 211.5 or higher.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Volunteers are third in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are 255th in tempo as well. This is a team that is good at slowing the game down and winning with ball control and solid defense.

Mississippi State made its first 6 three pointers last night against LSU. That's usually Mississippi State's weakness is long range shooting. It's unlikely they will shoot that well again, especially against a great defense.

The Scottrade Center has been a great under venue through the years. I expect a slow pace and solid defense on both ends.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Richmond Spiders defense has been awful down the stretch. Only two of their last ten games have stayed under this total despite them not playing at a very fast pace. 

St. Bonaventure has played at an extremely quick tempo all year. The Bonnies have multiple long range shooters who should get lots of open looks against this Richmond defense.

The first game between these two was played to a pace of 81 possessions. It was 97-88. This one shouldn't be that high, but I think this total is too low. 

Both teams are clearly better on offense than defense and the sharp money here is on the over ( more often than not the sharps like the under). 72% of bets and 99% of money is on the over.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UC Irvine Anteaters have the best ranked defense in the Big West. UC Irvine ranks fifth in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. This is a tremendous defensive team.

Hawaii was third in the Big West in the regular season in defensive efficiency. They are great at forcing turnovers, and the biggest weakness of the UC Irvine offense is their problems with turnovers.

The two games during the regular season both finished at 123 points. These are two teams that can go through some long droughts due to subpar shooting numbers. 

Factoring in the venue gives the under more value. The Honda Center is a massive arena built for hockey. In the last 47 neutral site games played at Honda Center the under is 32-15. These Big West teams aren't accustomed to playing in huge arenas. 

I expect the defenses to have the upper hand in this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Mississippi State and LSU both need to win a minimum of two games in the SEC Tournament to even have a thought of getting in the NCAA Tournament. These are teams who have proven they can win big games (LSU against Michigan and Mississippi State at Texas A&M). This isn't one of those games where both teams know their season is over and they don't care. 

This one is at Scottrade Center in St. Louis. The Scottrade Center has been an amazing venue for under bettors. This is a huge arena made for hockey and the shooting backdrop isn't favorable. The under is a whopping 47-20 in the last 67 games played at Scottrade Center with a total of 124.5 or higher. This is the first year for the SEC Tournament at this venue. 

Both of these teams prefer playing at a relatively slow pace, so I don't expect a fast tempo here. They just played to a 66 possession game this past Saturday and it stayed well under this total. This game means a lot more to both teams and the defenses should be engaged here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas Tech Red Raiders and Texas Longhorns played twice in the regular season. The first game played to a total of 125 points and the second was 128 in regulation. These two teams are way better on defense than offense, and both want to play slowly.

Most teams in the Big 12 push the tempo so these teams have some pretty high scoring games overall, but when they play against each other we have a slow paced game with terrific defense. I expect the same thing here today.

This is a played on a neutral floor, and this is a game Texas needs to win. They might make the NCAA Tournament without this one, but they can seal the deal if they win in this one. Important games usually mean more defense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Creighton Blue Jays and Providence Friars meet at Madison Square Garden on Thursday afternoon. Madison Square Garden has been the best under arena in the country for college basketball for many years. This is a huge arena with tough shooting backdrops. Poor shooting numbers are quite common at MSG.

Providence is right on the bubble. If they win this game, they'll be in the NCAA Tournament. If they lose this game, they'll be sweating in a big way on Sunday. 

Creighton and Providence played twice this year, and one of the two games went under the total. This is the most important game of the three, and it is played at MSG. 

Providence has consistently slowed the tempo in recent games against much faster foes. I'll expect them to do the same thing here. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas A&M Aggies just played the Alabama Crimson Tide this past Saturday. They will play them again here. In the two games in the regular season between these two teams, the final totals were 136 and 134 points. 

Now, Alabama has a game that they must win to have a chance at the NCAA Tournament. Alabama was the best defensive team in the SEC in the regular season. Opponents averaged only 0.99 points per possession against the Crimson Tide. 

If you look at Texas A&M and Alabama on the season as a whole, this is a matchup of two teams who are much better on defense than offense. Alabama is 121st in the land in offensive efficiency and 14th in defensive efficiency. Texas A&M is 74th on offense and 12th on defense for the year.

The Scottrade Center has been an amazing venue for under bettors. This is a huge arena made for hockey and the shooting backdrop isn't favorable. The under is a whopping 47-20 in the last 67 games played at Scottrade Center with a total of 124.5 or higher.

With this an early start time and a game that means a lot, I'll take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers and Texas State Bobcats meet. I've had the under both times these teams met during the season. Both of those games stayed under the posted total comfortably. I think this one will as well.

These two teams both like to play very slowly. Texas State plays at the second slowest pace in the country behind only Virginia. 

Both of these teams have major problems with turnovers on the offensive end. Coastal Carolina ranks 342nd when it comes to taking care of the basketball on offense (out of 351 teams) and Texas State ranks 324th. 

A slow tempo with a bunch of wasted possessions by turnovers definitely lends itself to an under. This one is on a neutral court which is in general a positive for the under.

The four meetings between these two last year and this year have all finished with a combined 113 points or lower (with one staying that low even after OT). 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* There is a bunch on the line here. These two teams were the two best teams in the conference on defense, and things should tighten up on offense with so much on the line in this contest. Also expect things to slow down in the tempo a bit here. Both teams are playing for the third straight day. This is a good situation for the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* Northeastern and College of Charleston are the two best defensive teams in the CAA and they meet here. Both of them like to slow the game down as well. This is a game that determines who will get to the NCAA Tournament, and both teams are tired after playing a lot in recent days. This is a good under spot and situation with a bunch on the line in this contest.

This one fits a strong system: when both teams are playing in at least their third game in the last four days and the game is on a neutral site the under is 151-99 (60.4%) since 2005.

Take the under.

Rotation #740 Fairfield/Iona under 156.5

*4 Star Play Under* The Albany Times Union Center has been an under gold mine in recent years. I'm not going to buck the trend. Especially with two teams who are worn out and playing for the fourth time in a very short period. This is an extremely high total considering the circumstances. The winner of this game goes to the NCAA Tournament. Both of these teams are capable of scoring a lot, but with this gym and no rest I'm taking the under and expecting some scoring droughts. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The College of Charleston is the favorite to win the CAA Championship. C of C wins by playing much better defense than most teams in this league. They also prefer to slow the game down. In fact, they are 327th in the country in tempo. 

William & Mary is one of the best offenses in the country, and they aren't good on defense. They are the reason this total is so high, but for a postseason game at a neutral site this number is too high. These two teams played an extremely high scoring game in the final game of the regular season where there were a ridiculous 67 free throw attempts. That is unlikely to happen again.

The first game in the regular season between these two stayed under this total by a point despite very good shooting percentages.

This is a win or go home game, and with one really good defense involved, a total set this high is too high.

Both teams stayed much lower than their normal scoring total yesterday in their first game at this neutral site.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* There hasn't been an under arena in the country than the Times Union Center in recent years. The under is a whopping 30-10 in the last 40 neutral site games played there. The shooting backdrop is a problem at this large venue.

Quinnipiac slows the game down, and I think they'll be able to slow things down significantly against Fairfield here. 

Both of these two teams shoot a bunch of three pointers. That isn't typically a good thing when you are playing in a tough shooting gym like this one. In the league this year, Fairfield made 34.9% of their 3 pointers. Quinnipiac made 33.3% of their 3 pointers.

It wouldn't be a big surprise to see ugly shooting numbers in this arena and with everything on the line. The loser of this game is done for the season.

When the under is 134 or higher and both teams are playing at least their third game in four days- the under is 96-59 in the last 155 contests.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Indiana Pacers rank 17th in the NBA in tempo in their last 12 games. The Washington Wizards rank as the slowest paced team in the league in that time frame. Indiana is 8th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in that time and Washington is 14th. They are 13th and 11th in offensive efficiency.

Sunday has historically been easily the best under day in the NBA. The under is 39-19 in Washington's last 58 Sunday games. The under is 37-29 in Indiana's last 66 Sunday games.

These two played a game that went to 213 last month, but the shooting numbers were clearly above average in that game. The Wizards are slowing the pace down more now than they were at that time as well.

The under is 9-2-1 in the Pacers last 12 road games. The under is 4-0 in Washington's last 4 games.

I see a slow tempo and average shooting numbers leading to an under here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Loyola Chicago Ramblers have been the best team in the Missouri Valley Conference all year. Loyola Chicago slows the game down. The Ramblers rank in the bottom 50 teams in terms of tempo in the country. 

Illinois State plays quicker, but the RedBirds haven't been very efficient on offense in the conference. They are averaging only 1.007 points per possession in MVC play.

The two games in the regular season between these two teams were both 129 points combined. Now, they go to Scottrade Center to play in one of the best under gyms in the country. 

Another strong system here is both teams being tired- when teams are playing at least their third game in four days and the total is 134 or higher- the under is a whopping 96-59 (62%) since 2005.

The MVC is all about defense, and I think this title game comes with strong defense from both teams again.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UC Irvine Anteaters and the UC Davis Aggies meet on Saturday night in a huge game for both programs. These teams are tied at the top of the Big West. The winner of this game will win the Big West regular season title.

UC Irvine is 5th in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. This Irvine team is tremendous on the defensive end. They play at a relatively slow pace, and on offense they are 245th in efficiency out of 351 teams. Their offense struggles largely because they have so many turnovers and wasted opportunities.

UC Davis isn't as good offensively as they were earlier in the year, because Chima Moneke is suspended. He was arguably the best player in the league, and his low post skills and offensive rebounding prowess powered this team.

The first meeting between these two was 64-53, and Moneke had 20 points in that contest.

This game means so much to both teams, and I think the defenses will be ready to go.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Ole Miss has played significantly faster since interim Coach Tony Madlock took over from Andy Kennedy. The Rebels host the Vanderbilt Commodores on Saturday night, and neither of these teams have anything to play for here. 

Ole Miss is 63rd in the country in offensive efficiency. Vanderbilt is 27th in the country in offensive efficiency. Ole Miss is 155th in defensive efficiency. Vanderbilt is a woeful 227th in defensive efficiency. The offenses have a significant advantage here.

Late in the season, when I find two teams who don't care about a game I always lean to the over. There is no reason for these two to be concerned about this one. They've had a disappointing year, and now they are ready to play in the SEC Tournament.

Take the over. 

*5 Star CBB TOP Total of Week* The Washington Huskies have been the best defense in the Pac 12 this year. Washington's matchup zone that Mike Hopkins brought over from Syracuse has stumped the Pac 12.

The Huskies are right on the edge of the NCAA Tournament, and they absolutely need to win this game. Washington's defensive effort here should be very strong. The Huskies have played 17 games in the Pac 12, and 12 of the 17 have stayed under this number.

Oregon is out of the NCAA Tournament for now, but the Ducks would still like to play their win in. The Ducks are coming off a disappointing loss at Washington State where their defense wasn't very good. Expect Dana Altman's team to come out with a lot more focus in this one.

The first meeting between these two was 65-40. The shooting in that one was terrible, and this will be higher than that game, but I think this is several points too high.

Both teams have something to play for, and Washington's defense is the best unit on the floor here.

Take the under. TOP Total of the Week 

*3 Star Play Under* The Drake Bulldogs and Bradley Braves meet on Friday afternoon. This is the first game of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament for both of these teams.

This game is played at the Scottrade Center, where the under has been extremely dominant. This is a huge hockey arena and the shooting backdrops are difficult. Combine that with the fact that most of these MVC teams are very solid on defense and questionable on offense, and you get a bunch of unders.

With a total of 124.5 or higher, the under is a whopping 42-16 in the last 58 games played at the Scottrade Center.

Bradley relies heavily on getting to the line on offense. Drake is easily first in the MVC at defending without fouling. They are 14th best in the country in that statistic.

The Drake offense got the least offensive rebounds of any team in the MVC this year. Drake's offense was great at home this year, but struggled away from home. Drake averaged only 0.972 points per possession away from home. They are averaging only 0.946 points per possession in their last three games.

With an early start and a tough arena, I like the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star CBB 100% Totals System Play SMASHER* The Times Union Center hosts the MAAC Tournament now. This is a tremendous under venue. It has proven to be one of the best gyms in the country in the past few years.

Siena plays their home games here, so they are the team accustomed to the shooting backdrop and the gym in general. The rest of the teams play here once in a while, but the stakes are never as high as they are for the MAAC Tournament. 

In the last 8 games with a total of 148 or higher in the MAAC Tournament in a game without Siena as one of the two teams- the under is a perfect 8-0. 

These two teams are both inefficient on offense normally, and when the game matters more I do expect the teams to be tight and struggle with their shooting. These defenses aren't strong normally, but some better effort on that end should be expected.

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Totals SMASHER* The Missouri State Bears and Valparaiso Crusaders played twice during the regular season this year. The teams combined for 117 points in the first meeting and 121 points in the second meeting.

The Scottrade Center is the venue here, and it is has been great for unders. The last 62 games in the Scottrade Center are 42-20 to the under. This is a huge hockey arena and attendance won't be very high for this opening round game. That is a tough shooting backdrop. More often than not we see low shooting numbers in this tournament.

Both of these teams are better on defense than they are on offense. While both teams suffered through a disappointing season this year, they have enough talent to make a bit of a run in this tournament. I expect the defensive effort here to be high.

In the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament- the last 53 posted totals set at 131 points or high have gone 39-14 to the under. 

My number is quite a bit lower than this. I see a lot of value on this one.

Take the under. TOP Rated Play. 

*4 Star Play Under* The MTSU Blue Raiders and Western Kentucky Hilltoppers play in what is essentially a Conference USA regular season title game. MTSU has a one game lead on Western Kentucky in the standings because of their 66-62 win on the road at Western Kentucky earlier this year.

MTSU has the best defense in the conference. The Blue Raiders like to slow the pace down, especially when they are playing against the other top teams in the conference. In conference play, 12 of MTSU's 16 games have stayed under this total.

Western Kentucky's offense will go up against an MTSU defense that is allowing only 0.875 points per possession on their home floor. The Western Kentucky defense is only allowing 0.996 points per possession on the road.

This game means a ton to both teams, and important games late in the year make me lean to the under. Recent high scoring games by Western Kentucky have inflated this number.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Wichita State's offense has been amazing this year. The Shockers have chewed up some really good defenses. Wichita State scored 76 points on the road in Cincinnati recently. They haven't scored less than 76 points in a game since January 20.

With many teams, you'll see tons of variance and some really low scores and very high scoring totals. The lowest combined total of points in a Wichita State game this year was 131 points. They have been consistent.

Wichita State is no longer a dominant defense. The Shockers were #1 in defensive efficiency in the country two years ago. They are #96 in the country this year. On the offensive end, they are fifth in offensive efficiency this year.

UCF's defense isn't even close to as good as they were with Tacko Fall. He's a difference maker in the middle, and their totals are still too low because of the huge drop in defensive efficiency without Fall in the middle patrolling the paint.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Northern Iowa Panthers and Evansville Purple Aces meet at the Scottrade Center in the MVC Tournament on Thursday. This is a huge gym and this game won't be very well attended. A tough shooting backdrop.

The two regular season games between these two teams finished at 106 points and a measly 88 points. The tempo in the second game was an unbelievably low 54 possessions. 

Juwan McCloud is doubtful for this game for Northern Iowa. McCloud is a guard who creates good looks for others. Koch is probable for Northern Iowa, but he is still less than 100 percent healthy.

Dru Brown will play here for Evansville, but he is still hampered by an injury as well.

The two regular season games were both ultra low, and this game means a lot more than those two games. I don't like taking unders this low in general, but my numbers say under here. I expect a sloppy offensive game with two excellent defenses showing their strength.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Colorado State Rams look a lot different with interim coach Jase Herl leading the way. He wants the team to push the pace as much as possible. He has been working on the team's conditioning, and reporters have said he is constantly telling the players to play faster. Herl says he wants the team to have fun, be loose, and play quickly.

New Mexico is all about wanting to play quickly. The Lobos have scored 90 points or more in 3 of their last 4 games. They have also allowed 89 points or more in 4 of their last 7 games. New Mexico cannot rebound defensively, and that's a big strength of Colorado State's offense is second chance opportunities. 

Colorado State's defense is weak at defending the 3 ball, and New Mexico launches a bunch of them.

In the first game between these two teams, Colorado State stalled due to strategy from then coach Larry Eustachy. They won't be stalling in this one. As long as the shooting numbers are decent, I expect this to go over. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LaSalle Explorers host the Dayton Flyers on Wednesday night. LaSalle has one of the most underrated players in the country in B.J. Johnson. Johnson missed some time in the middle of the year and the offense struggled then, but with him this is a quality offense.

Dayton has been miserable on defense all year. The Flyers are second to last in the conference in defensive efficiency as they give up 1.116 points per possession. LaSalle doesn't turn the ball over, and they should get good looks against this Dayton defense.

Dayton is excellent on offense. The Flyers are averaging 1.089 points per possession in conference play. They have one weakness and that is turning it over too much. Fortunately for them, LaSalle is 12th in the conference at forcing turnovers. Dayton's effective field goal percentage is 23rd best in the country.

Both teams shoot it really well from the line and that should help this one over the total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This one tips off the Big South Conference Tournament. Conference tournament games have gone more under the total than over in the past 10 years (52% unders), but there is another factor that makes them a stronger play.

Conference tournament games where the home team is favored by 8 or more points and the total is 130 points or higher since 2006 have gone 348-256-7 to the under (57.6%). This is a large sample size, and I think with the higher spreads it makes since to have more unders with less late game fouling likely.

The last four games between these two have all finished at 125 points or lower. 

Presbyterian moves on offense at the second slowest tempo in the country (only Virginia slower). They average only 0.913 points per possession on the road. Charleston Southern is allowing only 0.987 points per possession at home.

A slow pace and two subpar offenses.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Central Michigan Chippewas tried slowing things down in the non-conference slate earlier this year, but they have gone back to their old style of running and gunning in Mid American Conference play. 

Central Michigan is fourth in the MAC in tempo overall out of 12 teams. They are 4th in offensive efficiency as well. The Chippewas are poor on defense, and come in at 10th in defensive efficiency in the MAC. 

Ball State plays quickly as well. The Cardinals rank 3rd in the MAC in tempo. Ball State's offense has come on of late as Tayler Persons has caught fire. 

The first game between these two finished at 158, with both teams shooting close to their season averages. The tempo was quick the whole way. I had this number at 153, and I like this one to get over the total.

The over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams.

Take the over.

*3 Star Florida/Alabama Totals MONEY* The Florida Gators have been much better on defense of late. Coach Mike White said it himself after their last win. He said the improvement in the last couple months on defense has been amazing. It is showing up when it comes to totals as well.

In Florida's last eight games, zero of them have gone above this total. One tied the number and one stayed one point below the number. Keep in mind that they have played a couple very good offenses in this time and a couple very fast paced teams.

Alabama ranks number one in the SEC in defensive efficiency. The Crimson Tide are allowing only 0.987 points per possession in conference play. Florida is second in defensive efficiency in the SEC. In their last six games they are allowing only 0.989 points per possession.

Alabama's main problem on offense is turnovers, and Florida will force a lot of turnovers here. Alabama relies on getting to the line a lot, and Florida is first at defending without fouling in the SEC. Alabama's defense excels at defending the 3 point line, which should make it difficult on Florida's long range jumpers that they rely on heavily.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Texas Tech/West Virginia CASH* The Texas Tech Red Raiders have lost three straight games. Texas Tech is third in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Red Raiders are first in the Big 12 in defensive efficiency. I would expect a strong effort on defense after their recent losing streak.

West Virginia ranks second in the Big 12 in defensive efficiency. They are allowing only 0.90 points per possession at home on the season as a whole. 

Both of the games between these two last year, and the first meeting this year have all been played at a slow pace. Texas Tech ranks 8th in the Big 12 on offensive pace of play. West Virginia ranks sixth. 

Both teams are excellent at blocking shots, and both offenses get a lot of their shots blocked.

Two good teams late in the year with plenty to play for is an under signal for me. Also, Monday night is the single best night for unders in CBB long term because of the quick turnaround. That is especially true late in the year.

I think this one stays in the 130's.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Furman Paladins take on the East Tennessee State Bucs on Sunday. This game means a lot to East Tennessee State. They are tied at the top of the SoCon with this being their final regular season game. 

East Tennessee State appeared to be coasting to a regular season title before losing back to back shockers at home against The Citadel and Wofford. 

East Tennessee State is coached by Steve Forbes, who does a great job with this team. He has talked about being disappointed by the defensive effort the last couple games. I expect a much better defensive performance on Sunday. ETSU is allowing only 0.948 points per possession in SoCon play. 

Furman relies heavily on the 3 ball on offense, and ETSU is first in the league at defending the 3 point line. They are allowing opponents to shoot only 32.2% from long range.

Late regular season games that mean a lot are good under plays. Another good under angle is a short turnaround, and this is certainly that after both of these teams played late Friday. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star CBB Total DOMINATION* The George Mason Patriots host UMass in A10 action on Saturday night. 

UMass started the season out being a great under team- playing at a slow pace and struggling on offense. That changed drastically after they lost their top two centers and decided to play quicker. Additionally, their defense went down the tubes. UMass is allowing 1.156 points per possession on defense in the conference. That is worst in the A10. 

George Mason has been a great over team at home in the past. The over is 43-20 in their last 63 home games.

Both of these teams have little to play for, and I like looking for overs in games that mean little at the end of the regular season.

The over is 8-0 in UMass' last 8 games. The over is 4-1 in George Mason's last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record. A 12-1 trend.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* UNC Wilmington and Drexel both like to play at a quick tempo. The first game between these two got to 166 points before overtime. UNC Wilmington averages 76.4 possessions when playing on the road. Drexel averages 73.8 possessions when playing at home. There shouldn't be anyone looking to slow this game down. 

UNC Wilmington has allowed only 1.04 points per possession when playing at home, but they are allowing an ugly 1.173 points per possession on the road. Inside conference play, Drexel is worst in the CAA when it comes to defensive efficiency. 

The combination of speed and two poor defenses should lead to a track meet that gets past this posted total. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Georgia Bulldogs are 13-3 in staying under this number in their last 16 games. Georgia plays elite defense, and that is especially the case at home. 

LSU is averaging a miserable 0.987 points per possession on the road. The Tigers are averaging an impressive 1.186 points per possession at home. The road has been unkind to this offense.

The first game between these two finished at 61-60 with only 58 possessions. Georgia controlled the pace in that one. This game is totaled significantly higher, but I see it being another defensive battle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Northern Kentucky Norse have been back and forth this year between fast paced games and slower paced games. UIC started the season surprisingly playing slower than they did last season. That has changed in a big way. UIC has now played a whopping 10 straight games to a pace of 73 possessions or quicker. 

The Flames and Norse played a game that went to 75 possessions earlier this year. Northern Kentucky won 86-51. UIC scored a miserable 0.68 points per possession and the game still only stayed under this total by 8.5 points. 

UIC is playing much better on offense of late, and it is largely due to the great play of Dikembe Dixson. Dixson was injured last year and he started slowly this year, but he has scored 18 points or more in four of the team's last five games. He is a play maker for this team.

I see an up and down tempo, and with the total only in the mid 140's, I like the over.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The VMI Keydets and Samford Bulldogs are both really bad teams. They are also both very close to the end of their regular season (it ends on Sunday for both teams). 

When I see a matchup of two bad teams at the end of the regular season I always lean to the over. That is especially true when those teams are normally bad on defense. Both of these teams definitely fit that bill.

VMI is allowing 1.082 points per possession in the conference and 1.079 on the year. That isn't good, but it's a lot better than Samford. The Bulldogs are allowing 1.205 points per possession on defense on the year. That's 347th out of 351 teams in the nation.

These teams played to a pace of 80 less than a month ago. VMI plays to the pace of the opponent, and Samford has played to a pace of 76 possessions or quicker in five of their last nine games.

This one should be fast again, and I don't expect to see much defense.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UC Irvine Anteaters have been an under machine. UC Irvine slows the game down and they play tremendous defense. Opponents are averaging only 0.903 points per possession against Irvine this year.

UCSB has shot the ball well most of the year, but the Gauchos have a lot of pressure on them here. UC Irvine is right behind them in the Big West standings, and the Anteaters are a really tough team to beat on the road.

UCSB also plays at a slow pace. These two teams are first and second in the Big West in defensive rebounding, so that should help limit second chance points here. 

The under is 8-1 in Irvine's last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The under is 18-6 in their last 24 Big West Conference games.

Take the under.