*5 Star TOP Play Over* The North Carolina A&T Aggies and Bethune Cookman Wildcats are set for a track meet on Saturday. I'm confident this will be a very fast paced game. North Carolina A&T is playing 3 seconds per possession faster in the conference than in non-conference action. Bethune Cookman is 19th out of 153 in tempo themselves. This could be a 79 or 80 possessions type of game.

I don't think oddsmakers have caught up with NC A&T's recent pace increase yet. I make this game in the mid 150's.

Take the over.

*4 Star Play Over* The UNC Greensboro Spartans have a very underrated full court press. They are consistently forcing their opponent to turn it over at a clip of 25% or higher of their overall possessions in the game. The Spartans are great at then turning those steals into quick points. Samford is very sloppy with the basketball and they love to play quickly. 

The meetings between these two teams in the last couple years have been very high scoring. Samford is good at getting to the line, and they should get to the line at a pretty good clip here. Samford's halfcourt defense is absolutely atrocious. UNC Greensboro should get a bunch of easy looks near the hoop.

Look for a quick tempo here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UC Riverside Highlanders decided in the offseason to put the focus on defense. David Patrick's team had always played slowly and looked to win low scoring games, but they were never as good defensively as they are this season. The Highlanders rank 121st in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. Last year, they ranked 326th. 

Cal Poly has a new coach in John Smith. He also wanted his team to work on defense since they were dreadful on defense last season. Cal Poly has been good in the conference so far on defense. In fact, they rank second in Big West action in defensive efficiency. 

Cal Poly is 256th out of 353 in the country in average possession length, so they play slowly. UC Riverside is 348th out of 353, so they are stalling in a big way.

These two teams rank 296th and 340th in offensive efficiency. With a very slow pace and two improved defenses, I expect a very low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles couldn't score in the non-conference schedule. They played very slowly because they were up against teams that just had too much talent for them. The Golden Eagles are now in OVC play and playing against much weaker teams. They have decided to pick up their pace a lot. 

Tennessee Tech has seen 9 of their last 10 games go over this posted total. The lone game that stayed under this number was 133 points. 

Morehead State is due for some positive regression on offense. The Eagles shot 33.6% from 3 point range a year ago, but they are only at 27.7% this season. Morehead State has gone over this total in 8 of their last 9 games. 

These teams played earlier this month and the final was 83-72. Neither team much defense at all, and this is a low total.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Utah Utes have dramatic splits against man defense compared to zone defense. The Utes are far better against man defense. Utah scored only 53 and 45 points in their two games against Washington last year. Utah easily ranked first in the Pac 12 in offensive efficiency a year ago, but they couldn't solve the Washington matchup zone. Utah is weaker offensively this year, and they are slightly better on defense than a year ago.

Washington has slowed their pace down a lot without Quade Green running the show in their last few games. In fact, Washington's games have finished with 112, 116, 119, 120, and 125 points in the five games without Green in the backcourt. Two of those games went into overtime, and they were still that low scoring. 

Washington's defense is excellent, but their offense has been a mess much of the year. Green was a facilitator for this team, but he is out of the lineup now. 

I made this number several points lower.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Hampton Pirates offense struggled earlier this year. Why? They were without superstar Jermaine Marrow. With Marrow back in the fold, this Hampton team is pushing the pace much more and they have a lot of scoring capability. Hampton's games have finished with 177 points, 156 points, 163 points, 211 points, and 174 points since Marrow has been back on the floor. 

Campbell is playing a couple possessions per game faster in conference action than they did in non-conference play. The Fighting Camels main problem on offense is turnovers, but Hampton doesn't force many of those.

Hampton ranks 346th out of 353 teams in the country in defensive efficiency. The Pirates have allowed at least 80 points in each of their last five games. 

Campbell and Hampton both rank among the worst teams in the country in fouls committed on defense. A quick pace and plenty of free throws here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Memphis Tigers are 1st in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Memphis has been winning on the strength of their defense. The Tigers are second in the nation in block percentage. They are first in 2 point field goal percentage defense. Tulsa is a team that relies on shooting it from inside because they don't have many outside threats. 

Tulsa wants to slow the pace down. They are using a full second more of the shot clock on average in conference play than they did in non-conference action. The Golden Hurricane are much better on defense than offense as well. They are 65th in effective field goal percentage defense and only 143rd in effective field goal percentage offense. Tulsa has played five AAC games so far this year. All five of those games finished at 124 points or less.

This number has been pushed up to a point where I have to bet the under. Memphis has played a bit slower of late, and the Tigers offense has turned it over on 24.2% of their possessions in conference.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Fordham Rams have been awful on offense all year. They lost Chuba Ohams, one of their top two scoring options to a season ending injury. Fordham has also been without Antwon Portley and Erten Gazi the last few games. Those two are both questionable today, and they would at the very least be less than 100 percent.

Fordham has played eight games under this total, and many of those were with their top scoring options. The Rams can create a lot of turnovers and play above average defense. They are a bottom ten offense in the entire nation though. Fordham ranks in the bottom ten in the nation in tempo.

George Washington is a bottom 50 tempo team. They are coached by Jamion Christian, who coached Siena last year and they finished last year as the second slowest paced team in the country.

A very slow pace and a lot of wasted possessions and bad shots.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Purdue Boilermakers are coming off a poor effort against Maryland. I think we'll see a much better effort defensively from Purdue here. The Boilermakers slow the game down more than any other team in the Big Ten outside of Wisconsin. Purdue is 346th out of 353 teams in the country in overall tempo.

Purdue's offense hasn't been good at all in the Big Ten. In fact, in seven Big Ten games the Boilermakers have only scored more than 0.97 points per possession in two of those contests. Purdue's defense ranks sixth in the nation in defensive efficiency, so they are very good on that end of the floor.

Illinois is a completely different team than they were last year. The Fighting Illini are the third slowest paced team in the Big Ten in terms of average possession length behind only Wisconsin and Purdue. This Illini team is much better on defense than they have been the last couple years. It certainly helps that they have Kofi Cockburn on the inside with his 7'0 and 290 lb frame scaring people away from driving the lane. Brad Underwood's team has also switched to a less aggressive defense, and that has led to far fewer fouls on Illinois. 

Both Purdue and Illinois rank in the top 20 in the nation in free throws attempts allowed per 100 trips up the court for opponents. 

A slow pace here, and the defenses are better than the offenses.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The North Carolina A&T Aggies have really ramped up their pace in conference. Their average game in the conference has been 81 possessions, which is a blistering fast pace. This one likely won't be that fast, but NC A&T and Morgan State rank 1st and 2nd in the conference in free throw attempts. What about fouling on defense? NC A&T is 318th in defending without fouling. Morgan State is dead last. The Bears have allowed more free throws than anyone else.

A total set this low with two teams who play quickly and both get to the line and foul a lot is pretty rare.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Rockets have had some turmoil of late. Houston doesn't look like the team many expected them to be. Opponents have started double teaming James Harden in certain situations and forcing someone else to beat them. It has been working pretty well. Houston ranks 20th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last five games. 

Oklahoma City is slightly slower than the average team in the NBA in tempo. The Thunder have been inconsistent defensively, but they have done a nice job against the Rockets thus far in their meetings. 

These two teams don't like each other for multiple reasons. There is a lot of familiarity here, and I see this being a game where both teams place a high level of importance on this specific contest. 

This is an earlier start than normal, especially for two teams from the Western Conference due to  the Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday in the United States. These early starts are on the whole are a positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The BYU Cougars have changed gears on offense in the last few contests. BYU is playing extremely fast in their last few games. Yoeli Childs' absence might have made this team prefer to pick up the pace. BYU has all kinds of shooting options on the floor at all times, and even against a good defense in Gonzaga, I would expect BYU to be pretty efficient on offense.

This Gonzaga team is elite on offense and good, but not great on defense. Gonzaga can make BYU's defense pay for their lack of a good frontcourt defender now. The Zags take good care of the basketball, and they love to get out in transition.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Tennessee and Vanderbilt are both without their best offensive player due to an injury. Lamonte Turner is out for Tennessee and Aaron Nesmith is out for Vanderbilt. 

Turner was the heart and soul of the Vols offense. Without him, the Vols have been inefficient. Tennessee has scored 0.95 points per possession or less in three of their five games without him. They haven't had a single game where they averaged more than 1.05 points per possession without Turner.

Nesmith was shooting 52% from the 3 point line this year, and he was clearly Vanderbilt's best scoring option. In their first two games without him, Vanderbilt has scored 0.79 and 0.79 points per possession. The Commodores have looked lost on offense. 

This is a rivalry game and there should be plenty of effort on defense.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Western Michigan Broncos have a great long term totals system going in home MAC games. Western Michigan has played significantly faster paced games at home in conference action than on the road. The Broncos have been an over machine in the MAC at home. How good has the system been? The over is 33-10 in the last 43 home games for Western Michigan with a total of 156 or lower. These games haven't been squeaking over the total either, they have been sailing way past the number.

Western Michigan is aggressive and has been able to make a living at the line on their home floor. The Broncos defense is terrible though, and Kent State has a big edge on the offensive end.

The pace here should be quick the whole way.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles have sped up their pace of play in a big way in the last few weeks. This team clearly was slowing things down in the non-conference action against much better teams. Now, they are playing against far weaker teams in the Ohio Valley Conference. They have a chance in these games, and therefore they have decided to get things moving pace wise.

Eastern Illinois is playing quicker than a year ago as well. The Tenn Tech defense has been terrible all season. Eastern Illinois should get some easy looks near the basket against a Tech frontcourt that is undersized and not good defensively.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The South Alabama Jaguars have dramatically slowed their pace down in recent weeks. They are last in the Sun Belt in overall tempo. South Alabama has played six straight games to a total of 135 or lower. 

Georgia Southern is a fast paced team, but they aren't particularly efficient on offense. 

This is a game that I see being tightly contested. Neither team is very good at getting second chance points and this is a high total for the tempo that I expect this game will be played at.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The North Carolina A&T Aggies have dramatically sped up their pace of play in conference. They were using 18 seconds of the shot clock on average in non-conference play, but they are using only 14.0 seconds of the shot clock in conference action. This team clearly wants to run.

They'll be given a chance to play very fast here. Coppin State always likes to play quickly. The Eagles are the 9th fastest paced team in the country. 

Both teams foul a lot and the line here would suggest that overtime is at least a possibility. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Eastern Michigan Eagles are playing a lot faster than they did a year ago. Eastern Michigan averaged 62.9 possessions per game last year. So far this season, they are averaging 69.0 possessions per game. They have been the second fastest paced team in the MAC this year.

Ohio has been far better against zone defense as compared to man defense so far this year. They rank in the top 15 percent of teams in terms of efficiency scoring against a zone defense. Eastern Michigan plays zone almost all the time.

Eastern Michigan is good at getting to the line a lot, and Ohio is good at getting second chance opportunities.

The number here is a few points too low.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Purdue Boilermakers have been a tremendous under team this year. Purdue hasn't had a Big Ten game that has topped 126 points in regulation so far this season. Purdue is elite on defense, and only mediocre on the offensive end.

Maryland's offense has really struggled of late. The Terrapins tempo which was quick earlier this year has slowed down a lot and they are settling for too many contested long range jumpers. 

Purdue is 6th in defensive efficiency in the nation. Maryland is 7th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Two great defenses and teams who are comfortable playing at a slow pace. If the two teams don't shoot the ball great here, I like our chances with the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas A&M Aggies have only had three games all year go over this total. Buzz Williams has this team buying in on the defensive end of the floor. They are contesting shots very well.

South Carolina always plays very hard for Frank Martin. The Gamecocks are limited on offense, but they are an excellent team defense. 

Texas A&M is 326th in effective field goal percentage offense. South Carolina is 284th in that same statistic. These are not good offenses at all.

A sloppy game where both teams find it difficult to get open looks.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Miami has been tremendous on offense in their last five games. How good? The Heat are averaging 1.207 points per possession in their last five contests. That is third best in the NBA in that period. The defense has been bad though. Miami is allowing 1.162 points per possession, which is third worst in the NBA in the last five games. 

Oklahoma City has been middle of the road in both of these areas of late, but the Thunder have picked up the tempo in the last few games. It is also important to note that Oklahoma City has had much higher scoring games at home this year. Their offense is averaging just 1.059 points per possession on the road, but they are averaging 1.117 points per possession. Their defense has been slightly worse at home as well.

With the efficient Miami offense and Oklahoma City scoring efficiently in transition and at home, I think this number is a few points too low.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The SIU Edwardsville Cougars are 336th in the nation in defensive efficiency (out of 353 teams). Tennessee Tech is 316th in defensive efficiency. These are two really bad defenses and a very low posted total with those things being considered.

Tennessee Tech was stalling on offense in non-conference action, but they have picked up their pace dramatically in conference play.

Both of these teams rank among the worst 10 teams in the country in second chance conversion percentage allowed. They are giving up a lot of second chance buckets. Bad defense plus second chance opportunities makes me look toward the over.

With the line move down today I'm backing the over at this price. Edwardsville has had their last five games go over this total. Four of those five games finished at 150 points or higher. Tech has had six of their last seven games go over this total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Hampton Pirates season long offensive numbers don't look great. They are good, but not great. Those are misleading though, since star scorer Jermaine Marrow has missed half of Hampton's games this year. Hampton is a completely different offense with Marrow on the floor. He is one of the very best scorers in the country.

Hampton is playing the fastest of any team in the Big South. They are using only 15.3 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on average. Winthrop is playing at the second fastest pace of any team in the conference. They are using only 15.8 seconds of the shot clock on average. Both games between these two were track meets last year, and I don't see any reason to expect anything other than a very fast pace for this one.

Hampton is 10th in the nation in FT/FGA, and the single biggest weakness of the Winthrop defense is they put their opponent on the line far too often. 

Winthrop's offense has been rolling of late. They have scored 85 points or more in four of their last six games. They have seen 5 of their last 6 games finish with at least 158 points.

Hampton's last three games (since Marrow came back from injury) have finished at 177, 156, and 163 points.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Delaware Blue Hens aren't great defensively, but they are far better than they were a year ago on this end of the floor. Delaware was 277th in effective field goal percentage defense last year, but they are 142nd this year. 

Delaware prefers to play at a slow pace. They have been forced into some quicker games in the CAA so far, but they play a William & Mary team tonight that is playing the slowest of anyone in the league in conference action. 

William & Mary was 270th in effective field goal percentage defense last year, but they are all the way up to 106th this year.

Both teams are good on offense, and it is possible that they shoot lights out and beat this number, but at the pace I project (66 possessions), it would take both teams averaging more than 1.1 points per possession and that is pretty steep.

Take the under. 

Army/Holy Cross under 143

*3 Star Play Under* The Holy Cross Crusaders had to change the way they play. Their new coach wanted to push the pace, but they just don't have enough quickness or talent on the roster yet. In the last few games, Holy Cross has dramatically slowed their pace of play down. Compared to early in the year, Holy Cross is using more than 3 seconds more per possession before they put up a shot. 

Army is also playing 1.5 seconds per possession slower than they were in the non-conference schedule. 

This total is a few points high based on the recent tempo trends alone, but I see a couple other reasons to like this one.

Army is so inefficient on offense, but they really get after it on defense. Holy Cross has been very inconsistent on defense this year.

Neither team gets to the line much at all, which is clearly a plus for the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri State Tigers defense was torched by Northern Iowa in their last game. Northern Iowa appears to be one of the best (if not the best) offense in the MVC. Bradley isn't that efficient on offense, especially without Elijah Childs.

Missouri State is tremendous at slowing the game down. The Bears use nearly 21 seconds of the shot clock on average, which is among the slowest teams in the country. They'll be doing that again here.

Bradley is a solid team defensively, and Childs is a bigger loss on the offensive end than the defensive end.

I considered this game last night, but waited for a line move up. It moved up and is now easily above my number of 125 for this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Fordham Rams are absolutely awful on offense. Fordham has scored 44, 60, and 46 points in their last three games. Fordham ranks 342nd out of 353 teams in the country in offensive efficiency. They have played a ton of weak defenses, and still haven't been able to score much at all.

Fordham is now without Chuba Ohams for the rest of the year due to an injury. Antwon Portley and Erten Gazi are both questionable for this game with injuries. This is three of their top four scorers. They couldn't score with this guys, and without it gets even uglier. 

Duquesne is a good defensive team. The Dukes are 56th in defensive efficiency and 51st in effective field goal percentage defense. The Dukes have slowed their pace of play quite a bit from a year ago. 

Fordham plays at the slowest pace of any team in the Atlantic 10. I see this one staying very low scoring primarily because Fordham won't put up many.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Seton Hall Pirates are playing excellent defense right now. Seton Hall has an elite defender in McKnight. He is able to guard the best perimeter man from the other team and make things very difficult on them.           

Butler ranks 344th out of 353 in the nation in average possession length. The Bulldogs rank 5th in defensive efficiency and 4th in effective field goal percentage defense. Butler will slow this game down.

Five of Butler's last six games have finished at 128 or lower. Seton Hall has improved defensively a great deal since a year ago.

With the big line move up- I have to take the under here.

Take the under.                                   

*4 Star Play Under* A very rare 11 am eastern start time during the week in mid January. This is far from the normal in college basketball. In these spots I always initially lean to the under. These spots have shown to be positive for the under in past seasons. College students aren't accustomed to this, and that can throw off the rhythm of the game.

Colgate is probably the best team in the Patriot League this year. Lafayette is a quality team as well. Both of these do two things very well on defense. They don't foul. They also don't give many second chance opportunities. 

Colgate and Lafayette will put up a lot of 3's in this one. If they get red hot then this under will lose, but the start time is helpful and both of these defenses have been far above average in 3 point defense. 

Neither team likes to play very fast to begin with, and this is a big game for both teams.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers and Mississippi State Bulldogs play a similar style of basketball. Both prefer to play at a slow pace. They are both unable to play quickly without turning the ball over too often. Even in the halfcourt, both of these teams are turning the ball over at very high rates. They must shoot a very high percentage to score efficiently or grab offensive boards and get second chances. 

These teams met late last year and the final was 68-49. That game was played to a very slow pace of just 58 possessions. 

Missouri just played a high scoring game against Florida, and that has adjusted this total upward too much. Even after that game, 13 of Missouri's 15 games have gone below this posted total. Mississippi State has played 5 games that have finished at 128 points or lower, so they are very capable of playing in low scoring games too.

I had this one lined at 127, so I see a good amount of value in this number.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas A&M Aggies don't have enough offensive weapons to win high scoring games this year. Buzz Williams still can get his team to guard though, and he has the Aggies slowing the game down and competing very hard on the defensive end. They have been able to keep games extremely low scoring on a very consistent basis. How low? The Aggies have had 13 straight games finish at 129 points or lower. 

LSU was playing quickly in the non-conference slate, but the Tigers are using 2.3 seconds per possession more of the shot clock in SEC action thus far. The Tigers have had a couple very low scoring games in their last four contests. 

Both meetings last year between these two teams stayed under this number, and both of these teams are clearly better on defense than they were a year ago.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Toronto Raptors have been badly banged up. They are getting close to getting healthy, but from the sounds of coach Nick Nurse they aren't likely to have Pascal Siakim and Marc Gasol for this one. He said both of those guys should be back in the next week, but followed that up by saying that them playing today is probably a bit too ambitious. I'll take him at his word.

The Raptors are playing much slower while they are without Van Vleet, Siakim, and Gasol. They don't have enough firepower now to be pushing the pace. Toronto is still great on defense though. In Toronto's last eight games, they are 5th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They are also 28th out of 30 teams in pace of play. 

The Spurs have put up some huge numbers offensively of late, but some of those have come against some really bad defenses. 

This officiating crew is one of the best under crews in the business. Brian Forte is the crew chief has had 54.8% of his games in his career stay under the total. Each of the refs have seen at least 52% of their games stay under the total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Weber State Wildcats were adamant in the preseason that they wanted to slow down their pace significantly. Weber State is 292nd out of 353 in average possession length, so they have been playing pretty slow. Here, they go up against a Sacramento State team that has used up 20.7 seconds of the shot clock on average in conference play. The Hornets are among the very slowest teams in the country.

Sacramento State has only had 3 games all year above this total and two of them finished at 121 points. The Hornets are 12th in the nation in defensive efficiency. 

Both of these teams do a good job defending without fouling which is certainly important with a number this low.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Abbreviated writeups today since there are so many plays. Biggest college hoops slate of games of the season thus far. With all day Friday spent working finding value on the card, I'll keep my thoughts a bit more brief. 

Tennessee Tech has clearly sped up their pace of play in the last five or six games. The oddsmakers haven't quite been able to catch up to their style change. 

Murray State is great in transition on offense and Tennessee Tech struggles defending in transition. The Racers should get a lot of easy ones here. With a total this low and Murray State likely to put up a number at least in the upper 70's, I'll take the over.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Titans offense was good late in the season. Ryan Tannehill is clearly an upgrade from Marcus Mariota. Still, the Titans offense didn't face many good defenses during that time.

How did Tannehill and the Titans look offensively last week? They played a great defense in the Patriots, but Tannehill didn't look good. He was only 8/15 for 72 yards passing and 1 TD and 1 INT. Derrick Henry got 34 carries in that game. Overall, the Titans had 40 rushing plays compared to only 16 passing plays. Is that a look at what they want to do in this game too? Yes, I would think the Titans want to play keep away and move slowly and run the ball to try to keep it away from the Ravens offense.

Baltimore is clearly elite on offense, but the Ravens do run the ball at a good clip too. There is likely to be a lot of ticking clock here. The Titans are a pretty good run defense. Baltimore will get their yards, but the Titans are more likely to keep them from explosive plays than most defenses would be. 

The weather here calls for 16 mph winds with gusts to 25 mph. Rain is likely at least part of the time on Saturday night as well. This kind of weather would be helpful to the under. A game that would likely have conservative play calling would get even more conservative.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Abbreviated writeups today since there are so many plays. Biggest college hoops slate of games of the season thus far. With all day Friday spent working finding value on the card, I'll keep my thoughts a bit more brief. 

UC Riverside is a great under team. UC Riverside wants to control the tempo and play about as slow as anyone in the nation. As long as they aren't down big, a game they are in is almost always going to be played at an extremely slow pace. They are favored here and are playing a Fullerton team who is much better on defense than offense.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Abbreviated writeups today since there are so many plays. Biggest college hoops slate of games of the season thus far. With all day Friday spent working finding value on the card, I'll keep my thoughts a bit more brief. 

The Hampton Pirates got their superstar back in Jermaine Marrow. He is one of the best scorers in the nation. With him, Hampton has a guy that no one in the league can consistently stop. Hampton plays at the fastest pace in the conference as well.

The Pirates struggle defending the 3 point shot and Longwood has been very good from 3 in the past couple years (they put up a lot of 3's too). 

The meetings between these teams last year were extremely high scoring. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Texas Tech Red Raiders are always excellent defensively under Chris Beard. They are 12th in the nation in defensive efficiency so far this year. The Red Raiders once again are excellent at forcing turnovers and contesting every shot.

West Virginia has backed off the "Press Virginia" style a bit this year. They still press occasionally, but they are excellent in halfcourt defense now, and have looked a bit better when they aren't speeding up the game. The Mountaineers are 3rd in defensive efficiency this year, so they have been great defensively. 

Two of the best defenses in the country squaring off against each other here. Two of the best defensive coaches in the country. This should be a hard fought low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Abbreviated writeups today since there are so many plays. Biggest college hoops slate of games of the season thus far. With all day Friday spent working finding value on the card, I'll keep my thoughts a bit more brief. 

Eastern Michigan's zone defense can give opponents fits, and this Northern Illinois team isn't good offensively to begin with. Northern Illinois is much improved defensively, and they have struggled on the offensive end against all the better defenses they have faced. There is nothing to suggest that they will have much success here.

Eastern Michigan's offense turns it over on nearly 30% of all offensive possessions. Tons of wasted possessions here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri State Bears are doing the same thing they did a year ago. Missouri State is using a ton of clock every time they have the ball. Missouri State is averaging using 21 seconds of the 30 second shot clock in MVC play thus far. 

Northern Iowa is using 19.7 seconds of the shot clock on an average possession, and this is a team that is always the most comfortable when playing at a slow pace. 

The two meetings between them last year finished at 123 points and 106 points. They were both played extremely slowly. 

Missouri State is a team that I was very successful taking unders with last year, and with them slowing down even more again in conference play, I'm backing the under here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Howard Bison defense ranks 350th in the nation in efficiency. This team can't stop anyone. Norfolk State has what I believe to be the best offense in the conference. They have been extremely efficient in their first couple games in conference action.

Howard has a couple good scorers and should be able to get their points as well.

This total is too low based on Norfolk State struggling to score against non conference opponents. All three of the games between these two last year flew past this posted total.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* These two teams both play at an extremely quick pace. The last two meetings between these two have finished at 174 and 186 points. 

Bethune Cookman is 24th in the nation in overall pace. Coppin State is 7th. Coppin State is playing much faster than they did a year ago, and last year's meeting was played at a breakneck pace of 81 possessions. 

I would expect an extremely quick pace here, and the only way this doesn't go over is some terrible shooting from both teams.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Abbreviated writeups today since there are so many plays. Biggest college hoops slate of games of the season thus far. With all day Friday spent working finding value on the card, I'll keep my thoughts a bit more brief. 

The first game of the year Virginia beat Syracuse 48-34. Do I expect anything like that here? No, but they can pick things up quite a bit and it will still be under this total. 

Virginia's offense was good last year, but they lost all of their offensive efficiency when Hunter, Guy, Jerome, and company left. The Cavs are still great defensively, but their firepower on offense is very weak now.

Syracuse and Virginia have battled to very low games before. I expect it again.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Abbreviated writeups today since there are so many plays. Biggest college hoops slate of games of the season thus far. With all day Friday spent working finding value on the card, I'll keep my thoughts a bit more brief. 

Duquesne's defense is light years better than it was last season. The Dukes offense has faced an extremely easy schedule of defenses this year, so I think they are a bit overvalued right now. 

We know Jamion Christian's teams (Siena last year) love to slow things down and this number has moved up quite a bit.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Abbreviated writeups today since there are so many plays. Biggest college hoops slate of games of the season thus far. With all day Friday spent working finding value on the card, I'll keep my thoughts a bit more brief. 

VMI has sped up their pace quite a bit in recent games. The Keydets tried to slow things down a bit earlier this year, but it wasn't working. They have gone back to pushing the pace as they did earlier this year.

E Tennessee State has played a lot of good defensive teams who slow it down of late. That definitely isn't the case here. There is value in this number because of the Bucs recent lower scoring games.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UT Arlington Mavericks had the best defense in the Sun Belt when it came to effective field goal percentage defense last year. UT Arlington's defensive numbers don't look great so far this year, but it is important to keep some perspective. Look at the schedule UT Arlington has played so far. They had to take on Gonzaga, Oregon, Houston, Furman, and Nevada. They have played the 8th toughest slate of offenses so far this year. They will face much weaker offenses in the Sun Belt.

Coastal Carolina turns the ball over a lot on offense and wastes too many possessions. UT Arlington doesn't get to the line much, and that has been the downfall of the Coastal Carolina defense (fouling too much). 

The two meetings between these two teams last year were 74-54 and 61-58. Neither even came close to this total.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Abbreviated writeups today since there are so many plays. Biggest college hoops slate of games of the season thus far. With all day/night Friday spent working finding value on the card, I'll keep my thoughts a bit more brief. 

Illinois is a completely different team with Kofi Cockburn in the middle of the paint on defense. Brad Underwood's team is no longer fouling a lot on defense, and they are really bothering opponents into taking tough shots.

Rutgers has multiple great shot blockers, and I'm impressed with how hard Rutgers plays on defense every possession. Without Geo Baker, the offense has a lower upside.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Indiana Pacers and Chicago Bulls are both playing at a slow pace. If we look at their last four games, the Bulls are 22nd in tempo. The Pacers are 27th out of 30 in tempo. There isn't any reason to expect this to be anything other than a slow paced game with both teams playing in the halfcourt.

Divisional unders have done much better than overs in the NBA. These teams know each other very well. In fact, they have a history of playing a lot of unders against each other. The under is 19-7 in the last 26 games between these two teams. 

The Bulls have been a good under team against good teams. Chicago has put up big numbers offensively on bad teams, but they have struggled against quality teams. The under is 20-7 in the Bulls last 27 games against teams with a winning record.

The referee crew here is a slight positive for the under as well.

This number is up because of the recent high scoring games these teams have played in, and I think that creates some value on the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a really low posted total, but I still have to take the under here. The Sacramento State Hornets have played 12 games so far this year. How many of their 12 games have stayed under this low total? A whopping 11 of their 12 games have stayed under this total. Their second highest scoring game of the year had a total of 121 points scored.

Sacramento State is favored in this game, and I think they can get their style of play. The Hornets play strong defense, and they use more than 20 seconds of the shot clock on average. Northern Arizona ranks among the 35 slowest teams in the country in average possession length. This should be played in the halfcourt.

I had this game totaled at 119.5 here. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Texas State Bobcats and Coastal Carolina Chanticleers have played an extremely low scoring series against each other. These two teams have met seven times since the start of 2017. The highest scoring game was 139 points. Six of the seven games have finished at 126 points or less. They haven't even been close to this total.

Coastal Carolina is playing slightly faster this year, but Texas State is good at controlling the pace. Texas State also forces a lot of turnovers, and that is Coastal Carolina's primary weakness. Coastal Carolina ranks 290th in the nation in turnover percentage. They will likely end up with a lot of wasted trips in this game.

Texas State is 238th in effective field goal percentage offense. The Bobcats haven't scored more than 70 points in a Sun Belt game so far this year.

The total deserves to be higher than the last few meetings, but this is too big of an adjustment. I see a good amount of value here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles are 330th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Austin Peay is 319th in effective field goal percentage defense. A total this low between two teams with very weak defenses is pretty rare.

Tennessee Tech has allowed 78 points or more in six of their last seven games against a Division I opponent. They allowed 74 in the other one to Eastern Kentucky (341st in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense). 

Austin Peay is 78th in the nation in offensive efficiency. The Governors have a great forward in Terry Taylor. Taylor is so efficient in the post, and Tennessee Tech doesn't have anyone who can slow him down. Tennessee Tech was better defensively last year than they are this year, and they gave up 77 points to Austin Peay last year.

Tennessee Tech has been playing faster in OVC action than they did in non-conference play. I think this game gets into the 140's.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Purdue Boilermakers have seen 9 of their last 10 games go below this posted total in regulation. Eight of those nine have been 126 points or less. Purdue isn't very good on offense, but the Boilermakers are an excellent defensive team. 

Purdue ranks 9th in the nation in defensive efficiency. They have a lot of length on the inside and can really contest shots well. Purdue also slows the tempo down very well. They rank 340th out of 353 teams in the country in pace.

Michigan is an average paced team. The Wolverines have had some very high scoring games, but they have also played very low scoring games against Louisville and Oregon. Purdue is actually slightly better on defense than those two teams. 

Michigan's defense has faced a really tough slate of offenses thus far, and I think the Wolverines are fairly solid defensively.

With the line move up today, I have to back the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Charlotte Hornets are playing at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA right now, and it isn't even close. Charlotte is averaging 94.19 possessions per game in their last ten games. The second slowest team in that time (Pacers) is averaging 96.79 possessions per game.

Toronto has all sorts of major injuries right now. Pascal Siakim was amazing until getting injured. Fred Van Vleet was having a great year, but he is out with an injury now. Norman Powell is injured. Marc Gasol is injured. The guys who have been getting playing time instead now (Johnson, Thomas, Hollis-Jefferson, etc) have much lower offensive ratings than those guys who are injured. Toronto's current lineup is excellent on defense though. The Raptors are fifth in defensive efficiency in their last ten games. Johnson and Thomas rate as elite defenders according to advanced metrics.

With the slower tempo and weakened offensive firepower here, I like the value on the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Western Carolina has improved immensely on offense under Mark Prosser the last two years. They were 325th in effective field goal percentage offense the year before Prosser came to coach this team. In his first season last year, Western Carolina jumped to 52nd in effective field goal percentage offense. What about this year? The Catamounts are 15th in that same category. 

VMI is 336th in defensive efficiency. The Keydets haven't been able to stop anyone. It is hard to see that changing here against Western Carolina. VMI has been nailing a bunch of 3's lately though. Freshman Travis Evee has made 6 three pointers by himself in 3 of their last 4 games. VMI started the season playing slower on offense, but they are pushing the pace lately as they did most of last year.

Western Carolina is 260th in defensive efficiency, and the Catamounts have faced a lot of weak defenses this season.

The two regular season games between these teams last year finished at 161 points and 174 points. The conference tournament matchup finished at 179 points. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both St. Bonaventure and George Mason work to slow the pace down. The Bonnies are 326th in overall tempo. George Mason is 282nd in overall tempo. Both of these teams do a good job getting back in transition as well, and I would expect this one to be played in the halfcourt.

Two of the three meetings between these two last year stayed well under this posted total. I had this game lined at 127, and I see this as a value.

Look for a tight and low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Both the games between these two teams sailed over the posted total last year. I think the over has value again here. Hampton is 346th out of 353 teams in defensive efficiency. USC Upstate is 329th in defensive efficiency. These are the worst of the worst when it comes to defense.

Jermaine Marrow had to sit out several games for Hampton, but he is back and he is one of the best scorers most people haven't heard about. Marrow is the guy that makes this Hampton offense go, and they play much faster with him on the court. No one on this USC Upstate team can guard him.

USC Upstate's offensive efficiency numbers have clearly risen in recent games. The youngsters are starting to knock down some jumpers, and they'll get open looks here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Missouri State Bears found success last year by slowing things down to a crawl last year, especially in conference play. The Bears averaged using 20.6 seconds of the shot clock per possession in MVC action. They are doing exactly the same this year. The Bears are averaging 21.0 seconds per play in MVC action so far this year. 

Illinois State doesn't take good care of the basketball and neither does Missouri State. We should see a lot of wasted possessions in this game. Look for both teams to have empty trips and with a slow pace that is even more important.

Both teams are better on defense than offense. Missouri State has seen 4 of its last 5 games stay at 128 points or lower.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Virginia Cavaliers defense ranks number one in the nation in defensive efficiency. They have given up just 0.783 points per possession on the season. That is easily first in the nation. The Cavs are averaging using 21.3 seconds per possession which is easily the slowest in the nation. 

Virginia has played 10 of its 13 games under this extremely low total. Boston College would like to play a little quicker, but the Eagles offense has been held in the 40's twice already this year by Richmond and Duke. Boston College is without Nik Popovic and that hurts their offensive efficiency quite a bit.

This number has been bet up and I see a good amount of value here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bulls and Dallas Mavericks are two banged up teams. Otto Porter is out for the Bulls. Lauri Markannen is listed as questionable for this game. Zach LaVine is probable with an ankle injury. Kristaps Porzingis is out for this one for Dallas. Tim Hardway Jr. is listed as questionable. 

Chicago ranks 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the past 10 games. The Bulls are 27th in offensive efficiency. The Bulls have slowed their tempo down drastically from earlier this year as well. Chicago is 22nd in the NBA in tempo in the last ten games. Dallas is 17th, so they are slightly slower than average as well.

With some key pieces missing this is a pretty high posted total.

The Bulls have seen 12 of their last 15 games stay under this number in regulation.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Purdue Boilermakers have consistently been a very low scoring team. I took the under in their last game. Unfortunately it lost because of overtime. Nine of Purdue's last ten games have been under this posted total at the end of regulation. Six of those nine games have been at 124 or lower. 

Purdue is 8th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Boilermakers have a lot of length and they are great at contesting shots.

Illinois is much better defensively this year. The Fighting Illini are using a completely different style of defense. It helps that they have Kofi Cockburn in the middle of the paint. He is a defensive force. Illinois went from 338th in fouls committed per field goal attempt last year to 6th this year. 

Illinois was 52nd in pace of play last year, but they are 185th so far this year. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* It certainly isn't exciting to bet a Houston Baptist under, but this number is so high I have to bet it. This is an early season conference game, and one of the two teams in this matchup has clearly looked to be slowing down their pace from a couple seasons ago (Northwestern State). 

Neither of these defenses are good, but this is about as high of a total as you will ever see in college basketball. Northwestern State isn't efficient at all on offense, and they will look to slow this game down.

Early conference action with totals of 155 or higher have been good unders in the past decade (55% or so) and this one fits that system. 

Look for a high scoring game, but this number is a little too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The George Washington Colonials have struggled on offense all year. That is despite the fact that they have played the 15th weakest slate of defenses so far this year. George Washington just isn't a team that has many scoring options. Justin Mazzulla was one of their best options before he stepped away from the team a few weeks ago (transferring). George Washington is likely to struggle badly in A10 play on the offensive end.

St. Bonaventure ranks among the 50 slowest paced teams in the country. The Bonnies were the second best defense in the A10 last year. They are very good on defense again this year. 

These two teams play at an almost identical pace, so I wouldn't expect to see either team looking to get out in transition much.

Neither team gets to the free throw line much, and that is a big positive for the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New Orleans Saints offense played very well down the stretch. After their 26-9 strange loss to the Falcons, the Saints have averaged 34.2 points per game on offense. 

Minnesota is often thought of as a strong defensive team. That was the case a couple years ago, but that isn't the case any more. The Vikings have major problems in the secondary. This is a bottom six or eight secondary in the NFL overall. The Saints passing game is consistently good enough that I would expect them to expose the Vikings weaknesses here.

Dalvin Cook will be back for the Vikings offense, and that makes a massive difference. The Vikings have been very explosive in the running game, and Cook makes the passing game much better as well. Kirk Cousins has a lot of weapons around him. The Saints are banged up defensively, and I think that hurts them in this game.

The over has done well in playoff games in domes. In fact, the over is 29-13 in the last 42 playoff games played in a dome.

I think both offenses have the upper hand here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Utah State Aggies aren't at 100% healthy now. Their star scorer Sam Merrill is banged up and playing through it. Neemias Queta is questionable here with an injury as well.

San Diego State is 7th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. They are 11th in defensive efficiency. This Aztecs team is excellent on the defensive end. 

Utah State is a top 60 defense in the country as well. Both of these teams are very good on the defensive glass.

Both games between these two teams were played at 63 possessions last year, and these teams are playing a similar style this year. If a similar tempo is playing here it would take excellent shooting numbers to top this number.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Air Force Falcons have played five straight games against Division I opponents that have finished at 154 points or higher. Air Force is running a new offense with more screening and cutting. That has really helped Ryan Swan and Lavelle Scottie excel on the offensive end.

Air Force is absolutely terrible on defense. They are 340th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Air Force has played the 20th easiest slate of offenses (out of 353) so far this year as well.

UNLV's offense has improved of late. Their biggest problem has been with teams who force turnovers at a high rate, but Air Force very rarely forces turnovers. 

With both offenses clearly having the upper hand, I like this one to get past the total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Pepperdine ranks 20th in average possession length. The Waves are playing at an extremely fast pace. Gonzaga is more than happy to play quickly. The Bulldogs are 15th in average possession length this year.

Gonzaga has been running up the score on weaker teams. They put up 101 points on Texas Southern. They put up 112 points on Eastern Washington. It would be a surprise if they don't put up a big number here.

Gonzaga's defense was elite last year, but they lost their shot blockers in the frontcourt. The Bulldogs aren't bad on defense, but they are far weaker than a year ago.

With both defenses weaker than a year ago, I think this number is a few points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The SMU Mustangs are much better offensively now that Kendric Davis is eligible. He is the team's most talented offensive player by a large margin. Davis has been leading this team to several very impressive offensive performances in a row the last few games. SMU has scored 85 and 82 points against two pretty good defenses in their last two games.

Vanderbilt is playing fairly quick under first year coach Jerry Stackhouse. The Commodores are 13th in effective field goal percentage offense. They are 209th in effective field goal percentage defense.

I had this game lined at 148.5 and the drop in the line has created value.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Florida Gulf Coast is no longer the fast paced dunk city version from several years ago. This team doesn't have enough offensive firepower so they have drastically slowed down their pace of play. Florida Gulf Coast has stayed under this low total in 9 of their last 10 games against Division I opponents. 

Lipscomb has played a lot of teams who like to run so far this year, but Florida Gulf Coast will do their best to keep this game in the halfcourt. 

I had this game lined in the upper 120's.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Weber State Wildcats have decided to play at a much slower tempo this year. Many teams in the Big Sky will try to push the pace on Weber State, but Northern Arizona is happy to play at a slow tempo. Northern Arizona is 321st in average possession length this year. Weber State is 288th in average possession length this year. 

Both Weber State and Northern Arizona have faced a very tough slate of offenses so far this year. These defenses are far from strong, but they aren't as bad as they look on the stat sheet right now.

Jerrick Harding is questionable with a sprained ankle here, and Harding is the key guy for Weber State on offense. I like this play even if he plays, but it has more value if he sits. Kham Davis who averages 8.8 points per game is out for this game also.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are consistently the same type of team. Georgia Tech struggles on offense, but they play really hard on the defensive end for Josh Pastner. The Yellow Jackets are 252nd in offensive efficiency, but they are 26th in the nation in defensive efficiency so far this year. 

North Carolina was playing somewhat slower this year to begin with, but now that they have serious injury problems this team is way different than it has been in previous seasons. The Tar Heels don't have their star in Cole Anthony. They also lost Anthony Harris to a torn ACL.

North Carolina is 314th in effective field goal percentage offense. The Tar Heels are 96th in the same defensive category.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* James Madison has committed to playing much faster this year. The Dukes are 12th in the country in average length of possession, so they are definitely flying up and down the floor.

College of Charleston has the best player in the conference in Grant Riller. Charleston faced a bunch of very good defenses in the non-conference slate, and their offensive numbers are going to get a lot better in the CAA against very weak defenses like James Madison. The Dukes have faced the 7th easiest offenses out of 353 teams in the country. That changes here.

The tempo should be quick and I think this total is several points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Central Arkansas Bears got DeAndre Jones back last game and he poured in 21 points. Jones is arguably their most important offensive player. Central Arkansas ranks 6th in the nation in overall tempo, and Jones is a guy who helps them push that pace.

McNeese State is 103rd in overall tempo. McNeese State is 18th in effective field goal percentage offense. They are 339th in effective field goal percentage defense. 

Both of these teams rank in the top five in the country in free throws attempted/field goal attempted. They should make a living at the line here. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Texas Tech Red Raiders offense ranks 89th in the country in offensive efficiency. They have only faced the 325th toughest (out of 353) slate of defenses as well according to KenPom. This Red Raiders offense will go through some long scoring droughts against really good defenses.

Texas Tech is once again excellent on defense. Chris Beard's teams are always tremendous on the defensive end.

Oklahoma State is 22nd in defensive efficiency and 13th in effective field goal percentage defense. The Cowboys use a zone defense part of the time, and Texas Tech's offense has really struggled against zone.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The IUPUI Jaguars defense has become a major weakness. IUPUI has allowed 95, 83, and 82 points in their last three games. All three of those games were against teams who have had significant trouble scoring this year. IUPUI has allowed 80 points or more in 9 of their 13 games against Division I opponents this year.

Milwaukee is playing faster this year than in recent years. The Panthers were 304th in average possession length two years ago. They were 212th last year. They are 120th this year. They are getting quicker by the year, and the Panthers are playing an IUPUI team that wants to run under their new coach.

Milwaukee should be able to generate some quick points off turnovers here, but they will also commit quite a few fouls.

I had this game lined at 148.5.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Fairfield Stags have been so consistent at keeping games low scoring this year. Some teams can have occasional extremely low scoring games, but it is rare to see a team that has been low scoring every single game. Fairfield has had 11 games so far this year. How many of those games have gone over this posted total? One! 

Fairfield ranks 350th in average possession length (4th slowest). They are significantly better on defense than offense under new coach Jay Young as well.

Niagara has played four games that have stayed under this total. Niagara has a very weak defense, but Fairfield isn't likely to capitalize on Niagara's inability to grab defensive rebounds nearly as well as most of their other opponents.

This projects as a very slow paced game and unless the shooting numbers are higher than average this one should stay under the total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Ohio Bobcats played in 7 games this year that reached at least 61 points. Ohio is a big play offense, and the Bobcats defense is no longer the strength it was a few years ago. Ohio is 87th in yards per play allowed this year, and that was playing an extremely easy schedule. The MAC has many very bad offensive teams.

Nevada has gotten a bit healthier in the last few weeks. Their offense should be able to break some big plays against Ohio. The Wolf Pack passing attack improved in the last couple weeks with Carson Strong airing it out quite a bit.

Ohio has a star quarterback in Nathan Rourke. The Bobcats averaged 6.7 yards per play (11th in the nation) this year. It would be pretty surprising if Nevada can do much of anything to slow down Ohio's offense. Nevada is 106th in opponent QBR and Rourke should make this Nevada secondary look bad.

The weather looks good for this one and this fits a system of two teams with less than 65% wins straight up going 59% over the posted total in the last 15 years in bowl season.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Todd Golden took over as a first year head coach at San Francisco this year. Golden has this San Francisco team pushing the pace much more than Kyle Smith did a year ago. They are playing 5.5 possessions per game faster. Golden worked as an assistant under Bruce Pearl a few years ago before assisting at San Francisco. 

San Francisco was 45th in offensive efficiency last year. They are up to 29th this year. The Dons though were 125th in defensive efficiency last year. They are 205th so far this year. The Dons are allowing opponents to shoot 39.1% from 3 point range so far this year. 

St. Mary's is number one in the country at 42.7% from 3 point range. The Gaels will get open looks here, and they'll likely knock them down. They have 4 guys on their team shooting better than 40% from 3 point range. 

The Gaels are playing a touch quicker than a year ago, and their defense has been worse than last year as well. 

Neither one of these defenses has played a tough slate of offenses so far this year. They both face huge tests here.

The two games between these two last year were 148 and 166 points. With a quicker tempo and more efficient offenses, I like the over here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Purdue Boilermakers rank sixth in the country in defensive efficiency. Purdue has a good defensive big man in the middle in Haarms. The Boilermakers also have a lot of athleticism on the perimeter. This is a team that does a great job contesting all shots.

Matt Painter's team has slowed the pace a lot from last year. Purdue was 268th in tempo (out of 353) last year. They are all the way down at #340 this year. The Boilermakers have played nine games under this total so far this year. Their two Big Ten games finished at 102 and 126 points. 

Minnesota has been back and forth this year. The Golden Gophers have been tremendous on offense in their last couple games, but that is what has given us value on the under. This number has been bet up by 5 points. That is an overreaction. Minnesota is unlikely to be able to keep shooting the way they have been of late, especially on the road against arguably the best defense they have faced so far this year.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The James Madison Dukes completely changed their offense in the postseason. Many coaches talk about wanting to run the floor, but Coach Rowe has been seriously committed to changing from a halfcourt style offense to a team who gets out in transition and shoots a lot of long range jumpers.

James Madison is 9th in the nation in average possession length. The Dukes are averaging 76 possessions per game. Their offense has been solid, but their defense has been dreadful. How bad? James Madison is 317th in the nation in defensive efficiency so far this year. They have faced the 10th easiest slate of offenses (out of 353). 

UNC Wilmington likes to play quickly. The Seahawks have played a bunch of opponents who walk it up the court this year. That definitely won't be the case here. Wilmington has ranked in the bottom 15 teams in the nation in defending the 3 point line in the last two seasons. They'll give James Madison open looks from long range.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UNC Greensboro Spartans have a very strong defense. Greensboro has the best defense in the SoCon, and it isn't even close. Greensboro's opponents are averaging just 0.917 points per possession. The Spartans are less efficient on offense this year after Alonso and Troy graduated at the end of last season. They are even better on defense this year than they were a year ago though.

UNC Greensboro is the far better team in this matchup, and Greensboro has slowed their pace down dramatically so far this year. They ranked 77th in quickest average possession length last year. They are only 263rd so far this year. 

Mercer started the season trying to play very quickly, but it didn't work well. The Bears have recently played at a much slower pace. I think they'll be happy to play in the halfcourt with UNC Greensboro. I think Mercer will have a lot of turnovers here. They have committed a lot of careless turnovers this year, and UNC Greensboro has been great at forcing turnovers so far this year. 

Five of UNC Greensboro's last six games against Division I opponents have finished at 126 points or less.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Michigan Wolverines offense got quite a bit better late in the season. During the Penn State game it seemed something finally clicked for Shea Patterson and this group. The new faster paced offense is better than their previous pro style slow paced offense. 

The Alabama defense isn't what it has been in previous seasons. The Crimson Tide allowed 48 points against Auburn. They also allowed 23 to South Carolina and 31 to Ole Miss. 

Alabama's offense might be without Tua, but they still have all kinds of playmakers. The Alabama wide receivers will be the best group of receivers Michigan has seen all year. The Crimson Tide excel in getting big plays. 

While the Michigan defense is good, they were moved on easily by the best teams they played this year. Wisconsin rolled to 35 points and Ohio State racked up 56 points. 

Conditions look good here so weather shouldn't be a factor. Look for both teams to get to the end zone pretty often in this contest.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Navy Midshipmen take on the Kansas State Wildcats in the Liberty bowl on Tuesday.

Navy looked great in their final regular season game against Army. This Midshipmen team is much improved in every way compared to a year ago. What is most improved? The Navy defense. Navy ranks 14th in the nation in yards per carry allowed. They drastically cut down on the explosive plays they gave up.

Kansas State's Chris Klieman saw the triple option a lot in his time in FCS football with North Dakota State. I would expect his coaching staff to do a good preparing his defense for the tough task of slowing down Navy. Navy will get their yards, but I don't think it will come all that easily. 

Kansas State had only 48 plays of 20 yards or more (104th in the nation). That was playing against a bunch of bad defenses in the Big 12. The Wildcats are not a big play offense. 

Kansas State ranks 127th in pace of play and Navy ranks 117th. Navy runs the ball 88% of the time on offense and Kansas State runs it on 64% of their plays. A lot of moving clock here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Philadelphia 76ers have drastically slowed their pace throughout the course of the season. Philadelphia is 24th in the NBA in pace of play in their last ten games. Indiana doesn't play very quickly either. The Pacers rank 20th in tempo for the year overall.

The Pacers have consistently been an under team when playing against quality opponents. That has been the case again so far this year. Indiana's games are 17-7 to the under in their last 24 games against a team with a winning percentage of 60% or higher.

The 76ers are averaging 1.159 points per possession in their last five games. For the year overall, this team is barely better than mediocre. I think their offensive production likely regress back toward the mean.

This is a New Year's Eve contest that tips very early in the day. These early starts are a positive for the under since they are outside the normal for these players.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The College of Charleston defense was dominating a few years ago, but it is now worse than an average defense. Charleston is especially weak down low. Synergy Sports numbers show this is a team who ranks in the bottom 1/3 of the country in low post defense. Delaware has a quality forward in Justyn Mutts who should take advantage of that defense.

Delaware is 19th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. The Blue Hens picked up a huge transfer in Nate Darling and he is shooting 42% from 3 point range. This is a balanced offense for Delaware.

Delaware is a bottom 100 defensive team in the country. The Blue Hens aren't likely to have any answer for Grant Riller and this quality Charleston offense. 

I see both teams getting a lot of open looks here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Drexel Dragons have been awful defensively for three years in a row. There are 10 teams in the CAA. Drexel has finished 9th, 10th, and 9th in defensive efficiency in the last three years. So far this year Drexel's defensive numbers look a bit better, but they have played the 301st toughest slate of offenses (very easy). Their defensive numbers will get much worse.

UNC Wilmington has consistently been one of the fastest paced teams in the league. When Drexel was 9th out of 10 in defensive efficiency last year, it was UNC Wilmington sitting in 10th. The Seahawks play some terrible defense. 

Look for both teams to want to run here, and this is a pretty low total for a preferred fast pace with two poor defenses.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Fordham Rams have played 11 games this year. Only one of those games has gone over this posted total. Fordham ranks 326th in the nation in tempo. The Rams are 325th in offensive efficiency. They are good at forcing turnovers, but are very poor at shooting the basketball.

Coppin State likes to play fast, but Fordham is generally very good at controlling the pace. Coppin State is 326th in offensive efficiency in the nation. 

Both of these teams are far better defensively than offensively. There should be a lot of wasted possessions on both ends of the floor in this game. 

I had this game lined at 129, so I'm happy to get this under in the mid 130's.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Siena Saints have decided to push the pace under new coach Carm Marciello this year. Siena is 112th in average possession length so far this year. Holy Cross is also playing much quicker this year under Brett Nelson. They are at 144th in average possession length.

Siena has played some good defensive teams this year. Holy Cross is terrible on defense. Holy Cross ranks 345th in defensive efficiency out of 353 teams in the country. The Crusaders have allowed 80 points or more in 8 of their 12 games.

Siena gets to the line at a good rate, and Holy Cross fouls frequently. The Saints should do damage at the line.

Both coaches have had to play several teams who slow the game down and encourage their teams to push the pace. Now, they get to play another team who is speeding things up.

Take the over.

*4 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Chiefs defense is much better than most people realize. In the second half of the season, the Chiefs defense has put up some tremendous numbers. Kansas City's secondary is now one of the best in the NFL. I don't see the Chargers having the running game to move the ball consistently on the Chiefs either. The Chargers are without their top two offensive linemen, and that has hurt them a lot down the stretch.

Phillip Rivers has become a liability for the Chargers. I expect him to struggle against this strong KC pass rush and strong Chiefs secondary.

Kansas City's offense actually ranks among the five slowest in the NFL in the last half of the season in pace of play. The Chiefs have slowed down their tempo drastically. Kansas City is still very good offensively, but the Chargers defense has been good at limiting big plays.

The Chiefs as home favorites under Andy Reid have been great to under bettors. In fact, when Kansas City is a favorite of 8.5 points or more at home the under is 24-6-2 in the last 32 contests. The Chiefs are likely to have the lead here, and I could see them sitting on this game late.

The weather is a question mark here too. Winds of 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph are forecast for this game. That is clearly a positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Northeastern Huskies are very efficient on offense. Northeastern is 4th in effective field goal percentage offense in the country (353 teams). The Huskies scored 73 and 72 points on Towson last year. Towson is a similar defense as they were a year ago.

Towson has improved on offense compared to a year ago. The Tigers were 255th in offensive efficiency last year. They are 147th so far this year. 

Northeastern was 151st in defensive efficiency a year ago. So far this year the Huskies are an ugly 258th in defensive efficiency. That is despite playing the 289th toughest slate (very weak) of offenses.

This total has been set a few points short.

Take the over. 

*This line has moved up some since it was selected Friday evening. I would rate this a 4 star play up to 134.5 and a 3 star play up to 136* 

*3 Star Play Under* The Memphis Tigers offense is explosive. No one can deny that the Tigers have big play ability at all times. Memphis isn't accustomed to playing a defense as good as Penn State though. The Tigers played the 71st toughest strength of schedule according to Sagarin. The best defense they went up against this year was Temple. Penn State will now clearly be the best defense Memphis has gone up against. 

Penn State ranks 1st in the nation in yards per carry allowed. Memphis is accustomed to getting some big gainers on the ground, and I don't think they'll get many of them here. Brady White is a good quarterback, but he hasn't been great against the best defenses he has faced in his career. 

The Penn State offense ranks only 58th in yards per play so far this year. They have been very inconsistent this year. Memphis' defense isn't a major strength by any means, but they aren't the weakness they were in past seasons. The Tigers are 36th in the nation in yards per play allowed.

Both of these teams play at about an average pace. This is a high total for a game involving an excellent defense and two teams who play at an average pace.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Iowa Hawkeyes have been a team I've backed many times for unders in recent years, but I'll be on the over in this game. USC has been a very good over team, and I think this number is set a little low.

Iowa plays in the Big Ten West. To say that there aren't good quarterbacks in the Big Ten West is an understatement. Truthfully, there aren't any good passing attacks. Iowa's seccondary is good, but they aren't as good as the numbers on the stat sheet will tell you. Let's take a look at some of the opponents they have faced. They faced Miami (Ohio), Rutgers, Purdue (without their QB and Rondale Moore), Northwestern (yikes), MTSU, Illinois, and Nebraska (Martinez isn't good). Even the good teams they played this year aren't that good through the air (Wisconsin and Michigan for example). 

Iowa actually gave up 400 plus yards 3 times (Iowa State, Wisconsin, and Minnesota). Their defense is good but not great.

USC has three guys projected to be first round draft picks at wide receiver. Slovis is an excellent quarterback. Graham Harrell is an excellent offensive coordinator and I expect USC to be well prepared offensively. 

Iowa also isn't accustomed to facing defenses as weak as USC's defense. The Trojans are banged up in the secondary, and their run defense is really bad to start with. USC only allowed less than 20 points twice this year. The Trojans don't have the pass rush needed to make Iowa uncomfortable. 

The weather shouldn't play a role here in San Diego. The Hawkeyes have a good quarterback in Stanley and I think he makes some big plays here. Slovis and his wide receivers should connect on some big gainers. 

Iowa isn't likely to end up in a low scoring game like they would against most of their Big Ten West opponents. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers have drastically slowed their pace of play in recent weeks. In the early going this year, they were one of the top five fastest teams in the NBA. Philadelphia now ranks 21st in tempo in their last ten games. Milwaukee ranks 3rd in tempo.

Milwaukee is first in the NBA in defensive efficiency both for the year and for the last ten games. The Bucks are giving up only 1.014 points per possession on the year. They are giving up an even lower 1.003 points per possession during their last ten contests. 

Philadelphia ranks 10th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last ten games. 

Christmas Day unders have done extremely well in the NBA, especially games that start early in the day. The under is 27-11 (71.1%) in Christmas Day games that tip off at 4 pm eastern or earlier. 

This is the day after the players get to celebrate Christmas with their families and the games being lower scoring here make a lot of sense to me.

With this high number, I'll look for this to stay under the posted total.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Boston Celtics host the Toronto Raptors in a game that tips off just after noon on Christmas Day.

Boston ranks 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last ten games. Toronto is 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last ten games. 

While Toronto has been pushing the pace, Boston has really slowed things down of late. The Celtics are 27th out of 30 teams in the NBA in tempo in the last ten games.

Christmas Day unders have done extremely well in the NBA, especially games that start early in the day. The under is 27-11 (71.1%) in Christmas Day games that tip off at 4 pm eastern or earlier. 

This is the day after the players get to celebrate Christmas with their families and the games being lower scoring here make a lot of sense to me.

Two good defenses in an early game on Christmas Day.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Georgia State Panthers push the tempo. Georgia State ranks 39th in overall tempo so far this year. Georgia State is shooting 39.9% from 3 point range as well. The Panthers have a lot of good spot up shooting options.

SMU is much better now that Kendric Davis was cleared to play. Davis is probably the best player on the team. He started at TCU and transferred over here. Davis is 20/20 from the free throw line thus far, and he is both capable of scoring and facilitating for others. 

Georgia State has a glaring weakness on the defensive glass. They rank 330th in defensive rebounding percentage. That is a bad weakness to have against SMU. SMU is 8th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage. How bad is Georgia State on the defensive glass? Duke got 30 offensive rebounds against them! Georgetown also racked up 20 offensive boards against Georgia State. SMU ranks almost exactly tied with both of them in offensive rebounding percentage. Look for a lot of second chance opportunities and trips to the line. SMU is shooting 77.8% from the free throw line.

Georgia State should be able to hang in this game, and I could see this one being a foul fest late because of the margin.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks meet in a key divisional battle on Sunday. Milwaukee has been playing some tremendous basketball this year, and they look like a virtual lock to get the top seed in the Eastern Conference barring a major injury.

Indiana has really been impressive this year as well. They are 20-9 on the year, and they haven't even been at full strength for much of the season.

Milwaukee ranks first in defensive efficiency in the NBA for the season. Indiana ranks seventh.

Divisional unders have done better than unders in other games in the NBA over the last 15 or 20 years. These games mean more. 

Milwaukee is averaging 1.144 points per possession and allowing 1.019 points per possession on the season as a whole. Against only Central Division opponents, Milwaukee is averaging 1.136 points per possession and allowing 0.988 points per possession.

Indiana is averaging 1.090 points per possession overall and they are allowing 1.038 points per possession. Against only Central Division opponents, Indiana is averaging only 1.006 points per possession and giving up only 1.030 points per possession.

The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets aren't the same team without guard Jose Alvarado. Alvarado is the engine that runs this offense. Without him, Georgia Tech is getting some terrible looks offensively. Georgia Tech has scored 53 and 47 points in their last two games. The Yellow Jackets were embarrassed in their last game at home against Ball State. I think Georgia Tech likely shows up with a strong defensive effort here (they are 24th in effective field goal percentage defense in the nation), but this offense is very weak.

Boise State doesn't foul much at all, and they don't give up many second chance opportunities to opponents. The Broncos offense has been very inconsistent this year.

This game is played on a neutral court at the Stan Sherrif Center in Hawaii. This has been a pretty good under gym in the long run.

I had this one a few points lower than this.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UAB Blazers rank 342nd in the nation in tempo. Duquesne is 286th in average possession length. This should be a game played at an extremely slow pace. 

UAB ranks 269th in effective field goal percentage, and that is despite playing a weak slate of defenses so far this year. The Blazers rely on offensive rebounds, and Duquesne is 38th in defensive rebounding.

Both of these teams have been excellent at defending without fouling. 

This game is played on a neutral court which is a positive for unders.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a game where BYU is a huge favorite. BYU has shown the tendency to be happy to slow down a game with a big lead. They are likely to have a large lead here and that should help us.

Weber State Coach Randy Rahe said he wanted to completely change the style of play for his team this year. They were in the top 20 in tempo last year. He didn't like them playing that fast. Weber State has slowed all the way down to 282nd this year. They are trying to play only in the halfcourt.

Unders with a large spread and a total that isn't low have been strong in the past decade. We'll take one here.

Take the under.