*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma State Cowboys rank 15th in the nation in defensive efficiency. They have really played some shutdown defense so far this year. Oklahoma State has played the 46th toughest slate of offenses, so it isn't from them just locking down bad offenses. This Cowboys team is playing some really good defense, and they are mixing up some man and zone defenses.

Minnesota is a solid 68th in defensive efficiency despite playing the 25th toughest slate of offenses in the country so far this year. The Golden Gophers are 261st out of 353 teams in the country in overall tempo. They are playing quite a bit slower without Amir Coffey in the backcourt pushing the pace this year. Minnesota is looking to win games in the halfcourt more often than not.

This is a neutral site game which is a positive for the under. Both of these defenses have been far more consistent than the offenses.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* South Alabama coach Richie Riley has talked about wanting his team to play quicker. Against Coastal Carolina, they'll get their chance to speed up the tempo. Coastal Carolina is averaging playing at a blistering pace of 76 possessions in their last five games. The Chanticleers want to run early and often.

Coastal Carolina has had some trouble with teams who are good at forcing turnovers, but South Alabama ranks in the bottom 1/3 of teams in the country in forced turnover percentage. Coastal Carolina excels at getting second chance points, and South Alabama is weak on the defensive boards. 

Both of these teams have been getting to the line frequently, and both teams shoot the ball well from the free throw line. This should be a tight game, and overtime and a foul fest are both real possibilities.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UTSA Roadrunners push the pace as much as they can. UTSA ranks 35th in the nation in tempo. UTSA is 143rd in offensive efficiency, but they are only 289th in defensive efficiency. UTSA has had 7 of their 11 games finish at 151 points or higher so far this year.

Illinois State is a rare team from the MVC who wants to push the pace. Illinois State does use a zone defense at times, but UTSA has been great against the zone defense.

I have this number at 150 and strongly leaned to the over last night, with the line drop I'm taking the over here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This game is being played in Boca Raton (at Florida Atlantic). The weather here should be factor. Winds of 20 mph with higher gusts are forecast for gametime here. 

I wouldn't typically want to play an under with these two teams, but with this high of a number and the weather factor- I'm taking the under.

Both of these teams are more explosive through the air than on the ground. With high winds like this it should limit the downfield passing attacks some. 

I would expect to see some more running of the football than most would expect, and both rushing defenses are pretty strong. With more running plays the clock keeps moving which is clearly a plus for the under.

There are numerous very strong systems for high wind unders with a high posted total. I'll go with the systems here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Diego State Aztecs have been an under machine this year. Only one of their games has gone over the posted total. In fact, San Diego State's last four games have all finished with a total of 30 points or lower. 

San Diego State plays slowly on offense, and they are very inefficient. Juwan Washington is a good running back when he's healthy, but he is banged up now and is questionable for this game. San Diego State has very little passing game.

Central Michigan had a good year offensively, but they were up against some extremely weak defenses in the MAC. Central Michigan scored only 12 points against Miami and 0 points against Wisconsin. 

Though this is certainly a low number, I think this game is likely to stay in the 30's.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri State Bears slow the game down. Missouri State looks to use the shot clock up and then execute their play in the last 10 or 12 seconds of the shot clock. Part of the reason they play this way is because this team has had so much trouble with turnovers offensively. Even playing slower, they rank 327th in the nation in offensive turnover percentage. The Bears play slow and they aren't all that efficient because of their turnovers.

Oral Roberts has tended to try to speed the game up when they are playing against weaker opponents. They have had some very high scores this year, but those have been against the likes of Houston Baptist and Chicago State. Those are two of the very fastest (Houston Baptist is the fastest) paced teams in the country, and they are both bad at defense. 

Missouri State has slowed down the pace against LSU and Buffalo already this year. I think they'll get the pace they want here as well.

I had this game lined at 133, so I'm happy to grab the under at this price.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Illinois Fighting Illini have completely changed the way they play this year. Give Brad Underwood credit for realizing that their previous aggressive style of trapping teams for the whole shot clock was getting them in too much foul trouble and giving up too many easy looks by the bucket. 

Underwood picked up a huge recruit in 7'0 290 lbs Kofi Cockburn. He is a presence in the lane on defense and the Fighting Illini are relying on him heavily. Illinois ranked 338th (15th worst) in the country in fouls committed last year. They have committed the fewest fouls per field goal attempt this year of anyone in the country. 

Illinois ranked 52nd in tempo last year, but they are all the way down to 198th this year. Missouri always wants to play slow. The Tigers are 280th in tempo.

Missouri has only had one game all season go over this total. The Tigers are excellent on defense, but their shooting percentages are ugly.

Both of these teams turn the ball over a lot on offense.

This is a neutral site game which is a positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Morehead State has played 11 games so far this year. Only 3 of those have gone past 136 points total. In fact, five of their games have finished at 124 points or lower already this year. Morehead State ranks 297th in offensive efficiency in the country. The Eagles are shooting only 59.4% from the free throw line. Morehead State also plays slowly (272nd in average possession length out of 353). 

Ohio is 303rd in average possession length, so they tend to move even slower than Morehead State. The Bobcats are the better team, and they will likely win this game. Ohio has played a really tough slate of offenses so far this year, and they still have above average defensive numbers on the season.

I think this one stays in the low 130's.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Utah State Aggies are second in the nation (out of 130 teams) in tempo. Kent State is 8th in the nation in tempo. Both teams have struggled at times this year with teams who look to slow the game down and bleed the clock while controlling the ball most of the game. That won't be an issue here. Both teams want to get snaps off as fast as they can, and there should be a bunch of possessions in this contest.

Jordan Love has had a disappointing season. Love was terrific a year ago for Utah State. He is clearly a very talented quarterback, but the cast around him wasn't quite as good this year. They also played some solid pass defenses in the Mountain West. Adjusted for strength of schedule, Kent State's pass defense ranks 128th in the country this year. This is a great chance for Jordan Love to go out with a bang and put up a lot of yards against this Kent State defense.

Crum has done a nice job for Kent State at quarterback. He doesn't make sensational plays too often, but he is efficient with the football. He has good receivers on the outside, and I think Kent State can get some big gainers in this game. 

Bowl games between two teams with middling records have been strong to the over in the past few seasons. 

Look for the extreme tempo to lead to quite a few points here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star CBB Early Bird Special* The Navy Midshipmen rank as the second slowest paced team in the country so far this year. They have only been faster than the Virginia Cavaliers. In eight games against Division I opponents, Navy has played four games that have finished at 105 points or less in regulation. Mount St. Mary's has been held to 51 points or fewer three times already this year. 

Mt. St. Mary's is 316th in overall tempo, so they aren't likely to try to push the issue here either. While their defensive numbers don't look great, they have faced a schedule of strong offenses thus far and have clearly improved defensively from a year ago.

Navy is 316th in effective field goal percentage offense. Mt. St. Mary's is 318th in that same statistic. I wouldn't expect good shooting numbers here.

With a slow pace and two weak offenses, I expect to see a very low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers have a lot of talent this year. Coastal Carolina's DeVante Jones is a sensational sophomore who can score in bunches. Coastal Carolina has scored 90 points or more in four straight games coming into this one. The Chanticleers are 110th in tempo in the nation. 

Scott Cross is the new coach at Troy, and Cross has always been a guy who wants his teams to play quickly. Troy slowed things down last year, but they are beginning to play a little quicker under Cross this season. 

These defenses are very weak. Coastal Carolina ranks 255th in defensive efficiency despite playing the 273rd toughest slate of offenses (weak schedule). Troy ranks 287th in defensive efficiency despite playing the 282nd toughest slate of offenses.

Two bad defenses and two teams who prefer to play uptempo.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This game is played at the Toyota Center which is a huge venue and it is has been a great under venue. The under is 10-4 in the last 14 games played here. 

Utah State's defense got a huge boost with Neemas Queta returning to the lineup. The Aggies look amazing on offense so far this year. They are clearly good on offense, but they have played the 46th easiest slate of defenses thus far. They face an excellent USF defense here.

USF is third in the nation in forced turnover percentage. This team is 68th in defensive efficiency. The Bulls are 301st in the nation in overall tempo. USF has had 7 of their 10 games finish at 124 points or lower this season.

On a neutral floor that has been tough for shooters, I like value here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* UIC has ranked in the top 68 in the country in tempo in each of the last three seasons. The Flames started the season playing very slow this year, but they have had a couple very fast paced games recently. 

Illinois State is playing fairly quick as well. The Redbirds have also been far more efficient on offense this year, and they have been worse on defense this year than the last few seasons.

Four of UIC's last five games have finished with a tempo of at least 73 possessions. This is an extremely low total considering the pace this game should be played at. The spread here is at a fouling distance and that is helpful as well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Marist Red Foxes play at a very slow pace under Coach John Dunne. Marist was 323rd in overall tempo last year. They are 343rd (out of 353) in overall tempo this year. Marist was solid offensively last year, but they are very weak on the offensive end this season. The Red Foxes went from 102nd last year to 314th this year in effective field goal percentage offense. They very rarely get offensive rebounds. They also draw very few fouls, and when they do get to the line they shoot free throws at a horrible 58.6% clip.

The New Hampshire Wildcats were 353rd out of 353 teams in the nation last year in offensive efficiency. They have improved to a measly 311th this year. New Hampshire though has played the 23rd easiest slate of defenses in the country so far this year. 

Marist and New Hampshire played last year and the final was 58-49. 

Marist has only had 2 of their first 7 games go over this number in regulation. Additionally, 4 of their 7 games have finished at 114 total points or less.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Pepperdine Waves are 19th in the nation in average length of possession (least amount of shot clock used). Pepperdine has wanted to go fast all year, and they have done a nice job of forcing teams to play their style.

Portland State wants to play extremely fast under Coach Peery. The Vikings are 81st in average length of possession. Portland State uses a full court press often to try to get steals and quick buckets. 

Both of these teams give up all kinds of second chance points. Look for there to be a lot of extra shots at the hoop from offensive rebounds in this one. These teams rank 300th in defensive rebounding and 322nd.

Pepperdine stands out as the top free throw shooting team in the country. That's important for a couple reasons. First, Portland State fouls a bunch because they press so much. The Vikings fouled about as much as anyone in the country the last two seasons. Second, Pepperdine is favored here by 8 points. If the Waves are up by single digits late, we could see a lot of points late in the game from the foul fest scenario. Pepperdine's 4 best players all shoot at least 83% from the free throw line.

This should be a track meet. Barring some ugly shooting numbers I think this one gets into the upper 160's at a minimum.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* I waited for this line to drop and it did. We have seen a two point drop from last night. Stetson has been a good under team and UNC Asheville has been a good over team this year. 

UNC Asheville is favored here, and I do think they are the better team. Asheville does a great job forcing the tempo. They are 37th in the nation in overall pace of play. Asheville has several good scoring options especially at the guard positions. 

UNC Asheville's defense is terrible. They rank 350th in the nation (353 teams) in effective field goal percentage defense. Stetson's defense isn't much better. Stetson ranks 289th in effective field goal percentage defense and an ugly 342nd in defensive efficiency. 

Both of these teams have gotten a lot of offensive rebounds this year, and I would expect a lot of putback opportunities and free throw attempts.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Chicago Bulls have been much better on defense in recent weeks. The Bulls are actually second in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the past eight games (behind only Milwaukee). Chicago started the season playing terrible defense and looking to run at every opportunity. They rank 19th in pace in the NBA in the past eight games, so they have slowed down a lot as well.

Oklahoma City ranks 25th in the NBA in tempo in their last eight games. They rank 9th in defensive efficiency. 

Chicago's games have been going well under the total lately. In fact, 5 of the Bulls last ten games have finished at 198 points or less in regulation. 

Look for both teams to have some trouble getting open looks here. The Bulls leading scorers are playing with minor injuries as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Pitt Panthers were 106th in average possession length last year. They are 305th so far this year. A significant slowdown by Pitt. They are now playing in the halfcourt and winning with their strong defense. Coach Capel has done a good job getting this team to buy into his defensive system. Pitt ranks 61st in the nation in defensive efficiency.

Northern Illinois lost Levi Bradley and Dante Thorpe from last year's team, and those were their best play makers on offense. The Huskies were 86th in offensive efficiency last year. They rank 217th in offensive efficiency so far this year. That is despite the fact they have played the 309th toughest slate of defenses (very weak) so far this season. 

Both teams are clearly better on defense than offense. Both teams want to play slowly. Northern Illinois has seen 6 of their 9 games against Division I opponents finish below this posted total. Pitt has seen 6 of their 10 stay under this number.

The number has risen to the point that I have to bet the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kent State Golden Flashes have been pretty impressive so far this year. Kent is clearly much better on the defensive end than they were last year. They also look much better on offense, but I don't think that part will continue. Kent State is 86th in effective field goal percentage offense, but they have faced the 26th easiest schedule of defenses in the country (out of 353). They have only faced one team (Ohio State) in the top 150 in effective field goal percentage defense. 
UC Irvine is 27th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. The Anteaters always work very hard on defense for coach Russell Turner. UC Irvine tends to prefer to slow the game down a bit as well.
Kent State's defense has given everyone they have played this year quite a bit of trouble. They were actually tied with Ohio State with 10:30 left in the game before Ohio State went on a big run to close the game.
This game is played at a neutral site (El Paso Texas). This is at altitude and neither of these teams are accustomed to playing in these conditions.
Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Tennessee Titans offense has really improved drastically under Ryan Tannehill. I don't think anyone could have expected the Titans to get this much better with the quarterback change. Marcus Mariota just wasn't getting it done, and Tannehill has been much more aggressive. The fact that Tannehill is looking downfield more often and is keeping opposing defenses honest has made things easier on the Titans running game as well.

The over is 7-0 in the 7 games Tannehill has started since the quarterback change. Only one of those games fell below this number. 

Houston played terribly in their loss to Denver. The Texans need to put it back together here. I do think Houston has the ability to take advantage of the Titans primary weakness on defense (their secondary). Tennessee hasn't been tested in the secondary many times of late, but they face a great quarterback and some excellent receivers here. 

Both of these teams are willing to take deep shots and both teams have question marks at the safety spots. 

I see both offenses having quite a bit of success here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Broncos defense has played well in recent weeks. Denver seems like a team that wants to play hard to the end of the season. Fangio deserves some credit for keeping this team interested after a really poor start to the season. 

The Kansas City defense has played very well of late. They are still susceptible against the run, but this is a much improved secondary.

Patrick Mahomes is clearly not 100% healthy now, and that has hurt the Chiefs ability to get big plays on offense.

The Chiefs have a long history of playing unders when they are big favorites at home. When Kansas City is a home favorite of 6 points or more the under is 39-17 in their last 56 games. When the total is at least 44.5- the under is a whopping 22-5. 

The weather here looks helpful for the under. Winds of about 12 mph with snow are likely during this game. That should make both teams more cautious with their play calling. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Liberty Flames have played an extremely easy schedule so far this year. Liberty hasn't played a single team all year ranked in the top 170 in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. That changes here against Vanderbilt. The Commodores rank 11th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. 

Vanderbilt has also done their best to push the tempo. The Commodores rank 120th in the country in pace. This is an extremely low total for a game with one team who plays quickly.

Liberty's offense ranks 45th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. The Flames have been able to get to the free throw line at the 11th highest rate of any team in the country. Liberty has multiple good shooters on the floor at all times.

Vanderbilt has only had one game finish under 137 points in regulation this year. This total has been bet down to the point where I see value on the over. Last year when these two teams met the final total was 149 points.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Green Bay Phoenix rank as the fastest paced team in the country (out of 353 teams) when it comes to average possession length. Green Bay has played a bunch of teams who try to slow the game down so far this year. Green Bay has played only one team who ranks in the top half of teams in the country in tempo this year. That was their game against New Mexico that was played to a ridiculous pace of 87 possessions.

Evansville ranks 62nd in average possession length, and I don't expect them to try to slow the game down. The Purple Aces have been doing a good job spreading the floor and getting open looks for their outside shooters.

Green Bay is much improved offensively, and they are much worse defensively this year. The Phoenix rank 347th in the nation out of 353 in effective field goal percentage defense. This kind of defense combined with the tempo they play will make for some extremely high scoring games. Six of their last nine games have gone over this total.

Look for an extremely fast paced game here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arkansas Razorbacks are really buying into Eric Musselman's defensive system so far this year. Musselman wanted to instill a defensive philosophy first with this program and thus far it has worked out nicely. 

Arkansas ranks 4th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. The Razorbacks have allowed more than 61 points only once all season! 

Tulsa plays a lot of zone defense and slows down the pace. Tulsa lost their playmakers on offense from last year, and their efficiency on that end of the floor won't be very good this season. 

Tulsa is 34th in effective field goal percentage defense on the season. This is a team that has held 4 of their last 5 opponents to 58 points or less.

Look for open shots to be difficult to come by in this one. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Kansas State Wildcats and the Mississippi State Bulldogs are similar teams. Both of them lost their top scoring options from last year. These are two teams led by a coach that is defensive-minded. Last year, both of these teams were better on offense than they have been in any recent year. Neither of them will be as good on offense this year. 

Kansas State isn't even close to the same on offense without Dean Wade, Barry Brown, and Kamau Stokes. The Wildcats have played a very weak schedule this year so far, but they are still only 183rd in the nation in offensive efficiency.

Mississippi State has yet to play a team in the top 75 in the nation in defensive efficiency. Kansas State is 18th in defensive efficiency in the country. The Bulldogs are without their top bucket getters (Weatherspoon and Peters) from last year as well.

I would expect a slow pace when these two meet. This game is also played at a neutral site, and it starts at 11:30 am eastern. Those are positives for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Fresno State Bulldogs used 17.0 seconds of the shot clock on average last year. They are using up 19.2 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on average this year. This team has far less offensive talent this year, especially at the guard positions. Head Coach Justin Hutson uses a full court press quite a bit to try to slow the game down. It is a zone press that controls the tempo. 

Cal is playing much slower under new coach Mark Fox. Fox is definitely a defensive-minded coach. Cal has knocked down a lot of 3's so far this year, but they have played the 205th toughest slate of defenses on the season. Fresno State's defense should give them trouble. 

With neither team looking to run and both teams short on offensive weapons, I think this one stays low scoring. With the move up today, I'm taking the under here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The South Carolina State Bulldogs have more offensive ability than they did a year ago. South Carolina State has Tashombe Riley back in the fold this year, and he put up 20 points in their win over Presbyterian last game. They also have a couple good low post scorers in Applewhite and Kinard. 

South Carolina State has ugly offensive numbers thus far, but they have faced three teams in the top 33 in effective field goal percentage offense according to KenPom (Memphis, Liberty, and Tulsa). Now, they face a UNC Asheville team who ranks 351st in effective field goal percentage defense. 

UNC Asheville can't play defense, but they are forcing the issue and they can score. They were 350th in tempo last year, but are 66th in tempo so far this year. Asheville is good at getting to the basket and the SC State defense has ranked 340th or worse in 2 point field goal percentage defense in three straight years! 

Also important is the fact that both teams rank in the bottom ten in the country in defensive rebounding percentage. There should be a lot of second chance points here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UMass Minutemen take on the Yale Bulldogs here. UMass lost their star scorer from a year ago in Pipkins. This is a UMass offense that I believe will have some trouble scoring against top defenses this year. They just don't have enough scoring options. Yale ranks 4th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. 

Yale is controlling the tempo this year. They are 274th in tempo overall and 318th in average possession length. They will look to slow this game down. 

Rutgers was able to hold UMass to 57 points, and the Yale defense ranks better than them overall. 

Yale's offensive efficiency has dropped quite a bit from last year. They lost their top two offensive players from last season. UMass has more athleticism and should gradually improve on defense this year. 

I lined this game a few points lower than this.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* These Arkansas Little Rock Trojans have played 10 games this year. Only one of those games has gone over this total. This is a team with a lot of offensive weaknesses, but they are very strong defensively. Little Rock has faced the 97th toughest schedule of offenses this year, and they are still ranked 113th in defensive efficiency. That's excellent for a Sun Belt level team. 

Little Rock is 253rd in offensive efficiency. The Trojans are 341st in turnover percentage. An alarming 24.9% of their offensive possessions end in a turnover. 

Tennessee State ranks 340th in turnover percentage on offense. The Tigers have seen 24.8% of their offensive possessions end in turnovers. The Tigers haven't played good defenses this year, and this is a big test for their offense. 

Little Rock has slowed their pace down drastically this year. The Trojans were 55th in pace of play last year, but they are 260th so far this year. I think they are the better team and I expect them to control the tempo. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Louisville Cardinals have an excellent defense. Louisville has only allowed more than 62 points once in their last eight games. They have held their last two opponents (Michigan and Pittsburgh) to 43 and 46 points. This is a Cardinals team with all kinds of athleticism, and opponents just aren't getting clean looks at the hoop against them. Louisville ranks third in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are allowing only 0.853 points per possession. 

Texas Tech is always going to be a defense first team as long as Chris Beard is their coach. Beard is a tremendous coach, and he gets his players to buy into this defensive system. If you don't work extremely hard on defense, you won't see the floor on his team. Texas Tech is 13th in the nation in defensive efficiency so far this year. 

Texas Tech's offensive numbers aren't very good this year, and they have played one of the 25 easiest slates of defenses on the year. They face an elite defense in this one.

Jahmius Ramsey is questionable with an injury for the Red Raiders, and he is key to their offense. 

This game is played at Madison Square Garden. There isn't a more proven under arena in all of college basketball. The shooting backdrop is tough here, and the under has dominated in games at MSG.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Temple Owls haven't played a game higher than 145 points all year. In fact, all but one of their games has finished with 135 points or less. Temple's new coach Aaron McKie said from day one this team was going to be all about defense. So far, he has been right. Temple is 19th in effective field goal percentage defense in the country. They were 164th last season. 

St. Joe's is missing Taylor Funk (out with an injury) more than I thought they would. Funk averaged 9.4 points and 5.1 rebounds per game. Ryan Daly has to do too much without Funk in the lineup. Daly has 23, 25, and 32 points in the three games since Funk was injured. Daly is a pretty good scorer, but he isn't a guy you would want carrying your team all the time. There just isn't a good second option for St. Joe's. I think Temple's excellent defense will key in on Daly and make things difficult for him.

St. Joe's has been extremely inefficient in three straight games. Those games were against three teams that rank as average or worse in effective field goal percentage defense. Temple is elite on defense. The Hawks should have a hard time scoring.

Temple's offense ranks 297th in effective field goal percentage offense. The Owls have scored more than 70 points only once this year. They'll likely top 70 here, but they aren't usually efficient on offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Iowa State Cyclones rank 12th in the nation in quickest tempo based on their average possession length. Iowa State is averaging 73.6 possessions in their games. Seton Hall is 95th in pace of play. They are averaging 71.3 possessions in their games. 

These two teams just met on a neutral site and the final was 84-76 Seton Hall. That game was played on a floor that is a tough gym for shooters. There were only 24 free throws total in that game. 

This game should be played at a very quick pace again. This is at a normal location and the total is slightly lower than it was before. That makes little sense because they cleared the number before and played to a 74 possession pace. I expect a similar pace and this one should go over the total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Sacramento Kings are playing much slower this year. De'Aaron Fox is the catalyst for this team, and he is out with an injury. The Kings offense has been a little less efficient without him, and their defense has actually been better. Fox is one of the quickest players in the NBA, and without him the Kings don't have a reason to push the pace as much.

The Dallas Mavericks have been really good on defense at home. Dallas is giving up only 1.035 points per possession at home this year. Dallas is playing a back to back here which is a positive for the under as well.

Dallas plays at an average pace and Sacramento rates as the second slowest paced team in the NBA.

Dallas is a clear favorite here which reduces the overtime risk.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bulls have changed up their style in recent weeks. Chicago ranked in the top 8 or 9 in tempo for the first month of the season. For the season overall, they now rank 12th in tempo. Chicago ranks 22nd in tempo in their last five games alone. They have slowed things down and improved their defense of late. The Bulls are giving up just 1.047 points per possession (9th best in NBA) in their last five games.

The Miami Heat have consistently been one of the better defenses in the NBA under Erik Spoelstra. The Heat also have slowed their tempo. Miami is 25th in the NBA in tempo in their last five games. 

I don't see either team pushing the pace here. Sunday unders have done very well in the past 15 years in the NBA. 

I see this total as a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Top Total of the Week* The Pittsburgh Steelers have major injury issues on offense. Duck Hodges is now the starter at quarterback. He hasn't necessarily done anything wrong, but he is clearly a below average NFL starting quarterback. He doesn't have much help around him either. Smith-Schuster and Conner are both out for this game and that is a big hit to the Steelers offense. 

Pittsburgh's defense has carried them this year. The Steelers defense in its current state is a top five defense in the NFL. They have been able to force a ton of turnovers and they have a good red zone defense. 

Arizona's offense has been very up and down. The Cardinals have put up some big yardage numbers in the fourth quarter (garbage time) of some losses. Kyler Murray is coming off a really poor game and he is less than 100 percent healthy.

The under is 23-4 in the Steelers last 27 road games where they are a favorite. They have played a lot of tight low scoring games. I think that happens again here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas A&M Aggies are 340th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. They now play an excellent Texas Longhorns defense. Texas is 41st in the nation in defensive efficiency. Texas A&M is a solid 78th in defensive efficiency. 

Both of these teams have struggled at times with turnovers on the offensive end. I would expect a pretty sloppy game here.

This game is played on a neutral court which is helpful for the under. I strongly considered playing this one last night, and now the line has risen by 1.5 points.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Falcons defense has played much better of late. Atlanta has allowed 347 yards or less in four of their last five games. Atlanta is giving up 368 yards per game for the season, but their defense has been trending quickly in the right direction. It's also important to point out that Atlanta has played the toughest slate of opposing offenses in the NFL so far this season. Some more positive regression to the mean is likely. 

The Atlanta offense has been disappointing. Matt Ryan appears to be playing at far less than 100 percent. The Falcons running game is inconsistent as well. Carolina's defense is stronger in the secondary. I'm not sure Atlanta can consistently take advantage of the Carolina weakness against the run.

Carolina's offense has really tailed off in recent weeks. They are too dependent on McCaffrey. He is great, but they don't have enough around him. Opposing teams are scheming to stop him more and more, and the Panthers haven't been able to make them pay.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The South Carolina Gamecocks want to run whenever they have the chance. South Carolina is 24th quickest out of 353 teams in the country when it comes to average possession length. The Gamecocks can sometimes struggle from the floor, but they excel at getting to the line. Houston fouls a lot because they are so aggressive on defense. 

Houston is 110th in average possession length so they are playing pretty fast as well. The Cougars have played four teams who try to stall in their first six opponents. Against both Rice and Houston Baptist they were happy to turn the game into a track meet. 

Both teams excel at getting second chance opportunities. Both teams are also great at getting to the line. Both defenses foul a lot.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Clemson Tigers are just way too good for everyone in the ACC. Clemson's offense didn't play up to expectations for a while this year, but they have been great in recent weeks. Dabo Swinney made it clear a few days ago that he believes the country doesn't respect them enough. Will Clemson want to prove a point in this game? It seems likely.

Virginia's defense was really good early in the season, but if you look at the recent trends from this Cavs defense it is very concerning. Virginia gave up 25 first downs and 483 yards against a subpar Virginia Tech offense. Liberty threw for 313 yards against this Virginia secondary. Virginia gave up a whopping 28 points to a very weak Georgia Tech offense. The Cavs defense is not finishing the season strongly at all. Virginia is without star cornerback Bryce Hall and that has really hurt this unit. 

Clemson has scored 52 points or more in 4 of their last 5 games. The Tigers have rolled up 516 yards of offense or more in seven straight games. I think they'll put up a big number here. 

Virginia has scored 20 points or more in all but one game this year. The Cavs do have a good quarterback in Bryce Perkins. Perkins though can make some bad mistakes with the football or hold the ball too long at times. It could create big plays for either the Virginia offense on a big gainer or a pick six or strip six if he doesn't get rid of the ball quicker.

The weather looks good for this game. I see this number as a little too low considering how consistent both of these teams have been at scoring.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Yale is excellent defensively this year. The Bulldogs rank 5th in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. They have played in consistently low scoring games this year. Yale hasn't had a game higher than 144 points in regulation, which shows their games totals upside is limited. Yale has played 7 of 10 games so far this year under this total. In fact, 6 of their 10 games have finished with 124 points or less. 

Yale is doing a great job controlling the tempo this year. The Bulldogs rank 315th in average possession length this season. Yale is forcing opponents to play their style of basketball and that is allowing them to win with defense.

Lehigh was a fast paced team the last couple years, but they are playing much slower this year. Lehigh ranks 262nd out of 353 in average possession length. Lehigh lost their two best players from last year and their offense has been really inefficient this year. 

Both teams are good on the defensive glass. Neither team has gotten to the line much this season.

I had this game several points lower than this.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UNC Asheville Bulldogs have decided to play a completely different style of play this year. The Bulldogs stalled last year because they didn't have enough depth or talent. Asheville's coach Mike Morrell said before the year they would look to push the pace this year. They have the guard quickness and much improved depth to do it. They have definitely been running. Asheville ranks 64th in overall tempo so far this year. They have only scored less than 79 points in one game (against Tennessee). 

Western Carolina ranks 62nd in overall tempo. The Catamounts ranked 335th in effective field goal percentage defense last year. They have improved some this year, but they have played a bunch of weak offensive teams. I think Asheville's offense will really test them here.

Asheville's defense is terrible. The Bulldogs are 350th out of 353 in effective field goal percentage defense. Western Carolina is pretty efficient offensively and they should be able to take advantage.

Both teams get to the line a lot and foul a lot. Both teams also get a lot of second chance opportunities on offense.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* This line has dropped to where I have value on the over. I considered this one last night, and the line has dropped quite a bit. Both of these teams are very efficient on offense. Northeastern's motion offense under Coen is tremendous. Davidson's offense under McKillop is very strong as well. These are two coaches many other coaches try to copy on the offensive end because they have run such good offense for years.

Davidson is mediocre defensively and Northeastern is bad on defense. Both teams should get open looks here. 

The spread is 1.5 and overtime is always possible in a spot like this as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The St. Joe's Hawks rank 15th in the nation in overall pace of play. They are moving extremely quickly under first year coach Billy Lange. St. Joe's is extremely bad on the defensive end though. The Hawks allowed 82 points against a weak offense in Old Dominion. They allowed 79 points against St. Francis (PA). They allowed 94 points against Lafayette. They allowed 85 points against Loyola Chicago. They now must take on the best offense they have faced this year. Villanova is second in the nation in offensive efficiency. 

Villanova shoots 40.2% from 3 point range. They should get a lot of open looks against a St. Joe's defense that ranks 343rd out of 353 in the nation in 3 point defense. Villanova is 90th in average possession length this year. They have sped up in a big way. If they want to play fast this is a great opportunity for them to do that. Villanova has scored 97 and 98 points already this year. Expect another big number here.

St. Joe's gets up a lot of 3's, and Nova hasn't been good at guarding beyond the arc. Look for the Hawks to find some open looks from long range.

The tempo here should be extremely quick.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Early Bird Special* The Dallas Mavericks and New Orleans Pelicans are definitely capable of putting up a lot of points, and that's why this total is so high. When they met a few days ago, the game didn't come close to this posted total.

This game will tip off at 1 pm local time on a Saturday afternoon. This is an extremely rare Saturday early afternoon game for these two teams. These early start times have been very good to under bettors in the NBA in the past decade. That has especially been the case when it is a divisional matchup.

Dallas has been slightly worse on offense and much better defensively at home this year. The Mavericks are clear favorites here, and that reduces the chances of overtime.

With an extremely high total and a divisional game in the early start time, I'll take the under in this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* This Pac 12 title game between Utah and Oregon will be played on Friday night in Santa Clara. Utah has a lot on the line here. If LSU beats Georgia, the Utes have a real chance to sneak into the playoffs this year. Utah would be well served to not only win, but be impressive in winning.

The Oregon offense hasn't been good against quality defenses this year. Oregon has had long droughts against good defenses. The Ducks were only 4th best in the Pac 12 in yards per play on offense. Utah was easily first in the conference in yards per play allowed. In fact, Utah was 4th best out of 130 teams in the nation in yards per play allowed. Utah doesn't give up big plays. The Utes should do a great job keeping Oregon in front of them.

The Utah offense relies on the running game. Utah runs the ball on nearly 66% of their offensive plays. Utah has also played at the single slowest pace of any team in the nation this year. They take a lot of time off the clock even when they do score. Oregon ranks 13th in the nation in yards per carry allowed.

Both of these teams are far stronger on defense than offense. 

The forecast in Santa Clara calls for rain all week. On Friday night, rain and some winds are in the forecast. Levi's Stadium has been good for unders to begin with, and this weather would help the under quite a bit.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Central Michigan Chippewas rank 4th in the nation in tempo so far this year. Central Michigan has consistently wanted to push the tempo over the past few seasons. This team will do the same again this season. The Chippewas have scored over 100 points in four games already this year. It wouldn't be stunning if they scored 100 here either. 

Tennessee Martin ranks 353rd out of 353 teams in the country in defensive efficiency. They rank 353rd in effective field goal percentage defense as well. They are consistently terrible too. Martin was 351st in that category last year as well. This is an awful defense. 

UT Martin doesn't turn the ball over much. They are also great on the offensive glass. They'll get second chance points against a Central Michigan team that has been very weak on the defensive boards in recent seasons. Central Michigan also ranks in the top 75 in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage. UT Martin is weak on the defensive glass. A lot of second chance points for both teams.

I don't normally take overs this high, but my number is several points higher than this.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Weber State Coach Randy Rahe said before this season that he felt he tried to do something he just wasn't comfortable with last year when he had his team push the pace to the extreme. They are going back to slowing things down this year. The oddsmakers are trying to adjust, but I don't think this number is low enough.

Weber State has been unfortunate on defense. Opponents are shooting a whopping 82% from the free throw line against them. Opponents are also shooting 44.1% from long range. They have played some good shooting teams early in the year. These numbers can't be sustained.

Utah Valley has struggled with offensive efficiency under Mark Madsen, but this team is working hard on the defensive end. They have already had four games finish at 130 points or less on the year. 

This is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Yale Bulldogs have changed the way they play this year. Yale was a fast paced team who could score in bunches last year with Miye Oni and Alex Copeland leading the way. Yale lost those top two players from a year ago, and James Jones decided this season the Bulldogs needed to hang their hat on their strong defense. 

Yale ranks 6th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense so far this year. The Bulldogs have held Penn State to 58 points. They also held Vermont to 52 points. Yale ranks 274th in overall tempo this year compared to 41st a year ago.

Albany has almost always preferred to play slowly under Coach Will Brown. Albany is again playing slower than average this year. Albany hasn't played a team ranked better than 121st in effective field goal percentage defense this year. Yale ranks 6th and is far and away the best defense they have faced. 

Both Albany and Yale are good on the defensive glass and have done a nice job defending without fouling this year.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The George Washington Colonials are coached by first year coach Jamion Christian. He coached at Siena last year where his team finished 353rd (last in the country) in average possession length. George Washington isn't playing quite that slow, but they are looking to slow things down. 

Boston University has typically played to the pace of their opponent. Boston University's defensive tendencies should help out here. They have been better at guarding the 3 point shot than the inside shots under Joe Jones, and George Washington settles for a lot of 3's. 

Both of these teams have been poor at getting offensive rebounds. There shouldn't be many second chance scoring opportunities here.

I think this one should be around 130.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UNC Asheville Bulldogs aren't the same team they were last year. Asheville had to stall and try to keep games as low scoring as possible last year. Mike Morell is in his second year on the job here, and he made it clear he wanted his team to play much faster this year. Asheville is deeper and has more offensive weapons than they did a year ago. Asheville is still very weak defensively though.

Charlotte generally likes to play slowly, but the 49ers have shot the ball better than a year ago. The 49ers shoot better than 78% from the free throw line, and that could be key here since Asheville ranks in the top 20 in the country in fouling. 

Look for their to be enough pace here to get this one over the number based on Asheville's new style of play.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Valparaiso Crusaders were 304th in average possession length last year (out of 353 teams). Valpo was a bottom 50 tempo team thanks in large part due to all kinds of major injuries to their leading scorers a year ago. They had to slow down to stay in games.

Matt Lottich said before the season he wanted the Crusaders to play quicker. They have played much faster so far this year. Valpo is 56th out of 353 in average possession length this year. They played fast two years ago too, so it seems like this is a return to their old normal under Lottich. 

The Crusaders have yet to have a game this year finish under this number. Only one has finished below 143 points.

Eastern Michigan hasn't played against a team who ranks in the top 50% of the country in terms of pace all year thus far. That will change here. Eastern Michigan has been making a living at the free throw line on offense. The Eagles have had major trouble rebounding out of their matchup zone in the past. Valpo has been good on the offensive glass this year. 

With Valpo pushing the pace and both teams getting to the line a lot, I like the over at this low number.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Seattle Seahawks secondary is a major weakness. Even without Thielen, the Vikings have plenty of weapons to take advantage of this weakness. Kirk Cousins has been playing great football of late. He has an elite tight end to throw the ball to, and the group of receivers here are still above average. 

The Vikings secondary which was once seen as a strength is now showing by the numbers as a weakness. Minnesota is likely to give up some big plays here to Russell Wilson and his solid group of receivers.

Minnesota has had 5 of their last 6 games reach at least 49 points. The only one in that stretch that didn't was a win over the lowly Redskins. The Vikings games have been sailing over the posted total.

Seattle has scored at least 27 points in 8 of their last 9 games. Seattle is giving up 24 points per game.

With the move below the key number of 49, I like the value on the over here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UCLA Bruins were 11th in average possession length last year. They have been a really fast paced team for quite some time until this season. This year UCLA ranks 320th in average possession length. The Bruins have a new coach in Mick Cronin and he is working to install a completely different style of play.

UCLA has consistently played the slow pace this year, even when they are up against weaker opponents. The Bruins didn't even try to push the tempo against Chaminade in their recent trip to the Maui Invitational. 

UCLA has been hurt by teams who shoot the ball really well from outside. San Jose State is their opponent here, and San Jose State is one of the worst shooting teams in the country. The Spartans are shooting 23.1% from 3 point range on the season. San Jose State relies heavily on getting second chances from their big men grabbing offensive rebounds. UCLA is a great defensive rebounding team.

San Jose State scored just 39 points against Arizona. The Spartans scored only 48 points against Oregon State.

UCLA should control this game and that should help the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Chiefs host the Oakland Raiders in a divisional battle on Sunday afternoon. Kansas City is a double digit favorite in this game. 

Oakland is going to do everything they can do to run the football as many times as possible here and keep the ball away from Kansas City's offense. The Chiefs aren't giving up too many big plays in the running game, but they are susceptible to giving up a few yards every time. I think Oakland can take quite a bit of time off the clock here.

Kansas City has been a great under team off a bye with Andy Reid. That's partially because the Chiefs have been winning nearly every game off a bye with Reid. That helps because Reid and the Chiefs do slow the tempo down and get far more conservative later in the game with a lead. 

The under is 37-15 in the last 52 times Kansas City was a home favorite of 5.5 points or more. 

The weather will be a factor in this game too. The forecast calls for sustained winds of 20-22 mph and gusts of 35 mph or higher. That should lead to a few less big plays.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Red HOT Cash* The Miami Heat are averaging 1.154 points per possession at home. Miami is averaging only 1.045 points per possession on the road. This is a Heat team that plays solid defense regardless of where they are though. Miami is 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency on the year thus far.

The Brooklyn Nets were 5th in the NBA in tempo before Kyrie Irving went down with an injury, but in their last eight games without him they rank 15th in tempo. Brooklyn's offensive efficiency has dropped from 15th to 23rd in the last eight games as well. On the other end, Brooklyn has improved a lot defensively. They were 19th in defensive efficiency before, but they are 9th in defensive efficiency in the last 8 games.

Miami ranks 25th in the NBA in tempo in their last ten games. This should be a slower paced game than normal. This is also an early start game on Sunday, and these have done well for under bettors in the past.

The under is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings between these two teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The MTSU Blue Raiders have picked up the pace in a big way so far this season. MTSU was 176th in average possession length last year. The Blue Raiders are 19th so far this season. They have yet to have a game played at anything less than 71 possessions. They are forcing the pace in a big way.

Belmont wants to run under new coach Casey Alexander. The Bruins have already played a game at 78 possessions and another at 80 possessions. Alexander is known as a tremendous offensive mind, and the Bruins should get a lot of open looks against a bad MTSU defense. 

MTSU allowed 93 points against Coastal Carolina. They also allowed 86 points against Tulane. Belmont is a better team than those two on the offensive end.

With both teams wanting to run and both offenses holding the advantage here, I expect to see a lot of points.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Utah Utes defense is tremendous. The way they have been dominating games lately has been truly amazing. Utah has allowed 7 points or less in five of their last six games. The Utes have only allowed 20 plays of 20 yards or more all season. That is some excellent work at preventing big plays. Colorado's offense has been disappointing all year, and I would be surprised if they have much success at all here. 

Utah plays at the second slowest tempo of any team in the country. The Utes also run the ball on 66% of their offensive plays. They have shown they are willing to slow down and run the ball even more when they are ahead by a large margin. That is likely to be the case here. 

Colorado's defense has played much better in their last three games. They have a defensive-minded head coach and their seems to be improvement being made. Colorado has been more conservative on offense of late and slowed the pace some too.

I see Utah winning big here and this one staying under the total.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Iowa State has one of the better defenses in the Big 12. There are so many really high scoring teams in the Big 12 that the oddsmakers have to put a fairly high total on every game. Still, it can create some opportunities in spots where the defenses seem to have an advantage.

Kansas State runs the ball 62.5% of the time on offense. This is an offense that wants to be conservative and move very slowly. Kansas State ranks 127th in the nation in tempo. The Wildcats are only 79th in yards per play on offense.

Iowa State's strength is stopping the run defensively. The Cyclones are 36th best in the country in ypc allowed. They are giving up only 3.93 yards per carry in conference play.

Iowa State plays at a slightly slower than average tempo. The Cyclones usually rely on the pass to move the football.

The weather looks very shaky for this contest. Heavy winds of 20-25 mph are forecast according to multiple sources. 

I like the under without the wind, and with the wind this looks very valuable.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The James Madison Dukes rank first in the nation in average possession length this year. The Dukes were 313th last year. Coach Rowe said before the season they were going to be much faster, and they have followed through with that tempo change in a big way.

East Carolina has yet to play a team that runs even close to as much as James Madison. In fact, East Carolina has played Liberty, Navy, and some other teams who play great defense and play very slowly. That has made their totals look pretty low heading into this game. That gives us some extra value here. The Pirates have typically played to the pace of their opponent.

Look for an up and down game where both teams score a lot. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Pitt Panthers are a strong under team. Pitt is playing slightly faster this year, but their offense isn't efficient at all. Pitt is 114th in yards per play this year. The usually strong running game just isn't good this season.

Pitt is excellent defensively. Their strength is stopping the run. Pitt ranks 7th in the nation in yards per carry allowed. The Panthers easily rank as the best run defense in the ACC.

Boston College is all about the run. If you can stop the run, you should have a lot of success stopping the Eagles offensively. I expect Pitt to at least slow them down here. 

The weather looks questionable in Pittsburgh on Saturday. If there is wind and rain it would be a plus for the under.

Look for a low scoring contest here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Southern Miss is much improved offensively this year. They rank 24th in the nation in yards per play. Their running game hasn't been very good, but they have been very good throwing the football. Southern Miss ranks 10th in the nation in yards per pass attempt.

Florida Atlantic started the season a little slow offensively, but the Owls have gotten things going as one would have expected. The Owls are third in CUSA in yards per play. They are first in total yards. Florida Atlantic is the second fastest paced team in the conference. 

Both of these teams have really had trouble with keeping the play in front of them. Both defenses have given up a lot of big plays this year. Southern Miss has allowed 26 plays of 30 yards or more (86th in country). Florida Atlantic has allowed 31 plays of 30 yards or more (114th in the country). 

Look for both teams to score quite a few points here. Both offenses have clear advantages.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Baylor Bears have had a bunch of low scoring games in the Big 12. We all know this is a conference where a good defense and low scoring games are very rare. 

In Baylor's last 9 games, 7 of them have had 44 points or less total in regulation. The Bears have gotten more conservative on offense and they are leaning on their very strong defense. 

Baylor quarterback Charlie Brewer is banged up with an ankle injury. He is likely to play through it, but that likely makes them a little more conservative on offense. 

Kansas has relied strongly on big plays this year on offense. They aren't an offense who can consistently put together strong drives. The Jayhawks face a Baylor defense who is great at preventing big plays. Baylor has only allowed 32 plays of 20 yards or more (7th in the country). 

An important factor here is the weather. The forecast calls for sustained winds of 22-25 mph and gusts of 35-40 mph during this game. There are very strong angles for taking unders in that kind of wind. It should make both teams run the ball a lot more often here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Syracuse Orange offense has been better the last couple games. Syracuse put up 510 yards last week against Louisville. They had 395 yards and 49 points against Duke the week before. Syracuse always plays quickly. They are 16th in the nation in pace of play this season.

Wake Forest is 12th in pace of play, so they are extremely quick. The Demon Deacons are without a couple receivers on offense, but they still put up 618 yards and 39 points on Duke last weekend. I rate the Syracuse defense as the worst defense in the ACC.

Both teams have given up a bunch of big plays this year, and I would expect quite a few big gainers again here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Purdue Boilermakers and Indiana Hoosiers have a fierce rivalry. They play for the Old Oaken Bucket. These two teams always get up for this game, and I would expect a lot of intensity on Saturday in West Lafayette. 

Indiana's defense is much improved this year. The Hoosiers rank 35th in the country in yards per play allowed. Indiana has slowed their tempo offensively to help the defense this year, and it has worked. 

Purdue's offense is a shell of its former self without Rondale Moore and Elijah Sindelar. Purdue is reliant on throwing the football now. They have virtually no ground game. Purdue ranks 127th in the nation in yards per carry at a paltry 2.65 per carry.

Indiana's offense also relies on the pass quite a bit. The Hoosiers are 104th in the nation in yards per carry. 

These teams relying on the pass could hurt quite a bit here based on the weather this weekend as well. Multiple forecasts are calling for rain all throughout the day on Saturday, and the rain could be an inch or more. The wind is expected to pick up and be an issue too. The field at Purdue is a grass field and it can get torn up pretty easily. Those conditions are helpful for the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The TCU Horned Frogs and West Virginia Mountaineers are two of the better under teams in the Big 12. We see a very low total here for a Big 12 game, but I think it is justified. 

The forecast for Friday calls for heavy rain and 15 mph wind. This is a grass field and that will make it tough for scoring.

In addition, West Virginia has virtually no running game. How will they move the ball here? TCU is excellent in pass coverage and the weather will hurt as well.

TCU relies on the run, but West Virginia is excellent at stopping the run. 

The matchups and the weather make this an under play for me.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Iowa Hawkeyes haven't played a game that has gone higher than 46 points in the Big Ten. That is just slightly above this number, but there is another key factor involved.

The weather for Friday's game in Nebraska looks terrible. Freezing rain and rain with winds of 15 mph sustained and gusts to 20-25 mph are expected throughout the game. That is definitely significant enough weather to change the game. 

Iowa is 13th in the Big Ten in yards per carry, and I don't think they can consistently move the ball by being extremely conservatively. It will be hard to do anything other than be very conservative in this weather.

Nebraska plays quickly, but they haven't been efficient on offense.

Both defenses are excellent at preventing big plays. Even if the teams move the ball it should be in small increments and take quite a bit of time off the clock.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The SE Missouri State Redhawks lost several of their top offensive players from last year. The Redhawks rank 276th in offensive efficiency so far this year, and they have played two teams who rank in the bottom 50 in the country in defensive efficiency. This is a team that is likely to struggle on offense. 

Cal State Fullerton lost their top two scorers from a year ago. Ahmad and Allman took more than half of the team's shots last year and they ran the offense and led the team. Fullerton always works hard on the defensive end for Coach Taylor, but they have been inconsistent on offense. They should be worse on offense this year now that their stars are gone. In their four games against Division I opponents, Fullerton has yet to top 60 points this season! 

This is a neutral site game which is a plus for the under. 

Look for some sloppy basketball between two teams who turn it over a lot and don't have great scoring options.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* New Mexico State is 347th in average length of possession (353 teams). The Aggies take a bunch of time off the shot clock. New Mexico State's first two games in this tournament have had 120 points in regulation and 110 points. They are up against George Mason, who is 284th in the nation in tempo. 

George Mason is 185th in effective field goal percentage offense. They are 71st in effective field goal percentage defense. This is a team that is much better on defense than offense.

New Mexico State always ranks highly in defense as well.

This game is at a neutral site and both teams are playing for the 3rd straight day. A clear plus for the under. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers have drastically slowed their tempo of late. It has been hard for the oddsmakers to keep up with how much slower this team is playing. This team was top ten in tempo in the first couple weeks of the season. In the past 10 games, they rank as the second slowest paced team in the NBA. 

Who is the slowest paced team in the NBA in past 10 games? The Sacramento Kings. Sacramento has been playing fairly slow all year, but they have gotten slightly slower in the last few weeks.

Philadelphia is only 15th best in the NBA in offensive efficiency. Sacramento is only 19th best in the NBA in offensive efficiency. The Kings are 21st in defensive efficiency for the season, though they have improved in the last few games. The 76ers rank 9th in the NBA in defensive efficiency.

I see this being a slow paced battle. It would take some very good shooting numbers to get this one over the total if the pace is what I expect it will be here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Northern Illinois hosts Western Michigan for this Tuesday MACtion contest. Western Michigan has been the most consistent team in the MAC this year. The Broncos have a good offense and a weaker defense. Northern Illinois has been a disappointment in general this year. The Huskies are 98th in the nation in yards per play.

Both of these teams prefer to play at a slow tempo. Western Michigan ranks 75th out of 130 in tempo. Northern Illinois is 98th in tempo. 

The weather here is the primary reason for this play. The forecast calls for 20 mph winds with gusts of 35 mph during the game. Rain is expected as well throughout the game. A clear positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers have played every single one of their games under this posted total. The Tigers have an excellent defense and a weak offense. Missouri is also good at controlling the pace of the game.

Oklahoma likes to play quickly, but the Sooners can go through scoring droughts at times. On the other end, Oklahoma is excellent defensively. Oklahoma should make life very difficult for the Missouri offense.

This is a neutral site game and those have done excellent toward the under early in the season.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This game is played at the Hard Rock Riviera where the under is 27-14 in games played there. This is known as an under gym. Neutral site games early in the season have been good under bets in the long term. 

South Carolina does like to play fast, but they are far better on defense than offense. Wichita State works hard to slow down the tempo of the game. Wichita State is much better on defense than offense. 

4 of Wichita State's 5 games have stayed under this total, and none of those games have been on neutral courts.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Both Boston University and Northern Colorado prefer to play at a slow pace. Boston ranks 240th in overall tempo. Northern Colorado ranks 292nd in overall tempo. I wouldn't expect either team to be pushing pace here.

The Hard Rock Riviera in Mexico has been a really good under venue in the past. This is these teams first games in this facility, and I think that could lead to lower than average shooting numbers. 

Northern Colorado is a defense first team, and I would expect them to try to keep most of their games low scoring this year since they lost so much from last year. 

I think this is several points too high. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Mexico State Aggies play at the 347th quickest tempo out of 353 teams. They'll work hard to slow the game down. They are also a very good defensive team. USF is an average paced team, but they turn the ball over a bunch on offense and force a bunch of turnovers on defense. They have consistently had very low scoring games.

USF has only had one game so far this year that has gone over this very low total. 

This game is played in the Cayman Islands at a gym that is noted to be good for the under.

I expect a low scoring game here. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UCLA Bruins are a completely different team than last year. Mick Cronin's style of play is far different than what this program has been accustomed to. Cronin is a defensive-minded coach who wants to slow the game down and win low scoring battles. UCLA has already played 4 of their 5 games under this posted total.

BYU has slowed their tempo down drastically so far this year too. They were 54th quickest in average possession length last year. They rank 229th so far this year. BYU has a new coach in Mark Pope also.

I think both defenses will put forth a good effort in this one. 

This is a neutral site game which is a clear positive for the under. Early season neutral site contests have been very strong in the past 15 years. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Toronto Raptors host the Philadelphia 76ers in a game that should have both teams motivated tonight. The Raptors edged the 76ers in the playoffs last year, and you know both teams remember that series very well.

I've been tracking the 76ers very closely of late. Philadelphia has clearly decided to slow down their tempo. They were ranking in the top ten in the NBA in tempo the first couple weeks of the season. If we look at only their last 10 games, the 76ers rank 26th in the NBA in tempo. A drastic slowdown. 

Toronto plays near the league average in tempo. The Raptors are 9th in defensive efficiency on the year. The 76ers are 8th in defensive efficiency. 

The Raptors rank 7th in the NBA in offensive efficiency, while the 76ers rank 13th. 

This is a big game for both teams, and the recent tempo of the 76ers makes me think they try to keep this pace slow. 

The under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Butler Bulldogs and Missouri Tigers meet at the Sprint Center in Kansas City tonight. Butler and Missouri are both teams who have a long history of wanting to slow the pace down and win low scoring games.

Missouri is a defensive-minded team under Coach Cuonzo Martin. They are 6th in the nation in defensive efficiency so far this year. Butler ranks 29th in the nation in defensive efficiency.

Missouri ranks 238th in pace (average possession length) and Butler ranks 336th. I would expect a very slow tempo in this game.

Missouri's contest against Xavier was 51-51 at the end of regulation. Butler's big game against Minnesota finished at 120 points.

A neutral site helps the under and we have a neutral court here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Yale Bulldogs lost some great players from last year's team. Yale pushed the tempo a lot more than normal last year. They are now slowing things down a lot more and trying to win with defense. Yale is 286th quickest (out of 353) in average possession length this year. They were 52nd last year. A huge slowdown. Yale is 9th in effective field goal percentage defense this year, so they have been terrific on defense.

Western Michigan has played two good defenses this year. They scored 58 points on Ole Miss and 63 points on Oklahoma State. The Broncos don't have enough scoring options to consistently put up a big number against quality defenses.

This game is played at HP Fieldhouse in Florida. This has consistently been a good under venue. An early start for two teams a long way from home as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Mexico State Aggies rank 345th in average possession length so far this year. There are 353 teams in the country. Clearly, the Aggies are intentionally slowing games down this year. Chris Jans' team has been excellent on defense the last two years. Their numbers aren't good so far this year, but they have played some really good offenses. Look for the Aggies to be solid on defense again.

Colorado State typically plays to the pace of their opponents. The Rams have played four terrible defenses and one great one (Duke). New Mexico State obviously isn't Duke defensively, but they should make Colorado State work.

This game is played at 11 am eastern in the Cayman Islands. This is a really long way from home for these two teams and a very early start on the body clock.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Loyola Marymount Lions are 349th in the country in tempo. Loyola is using nearly 21 seconds of the shot clock on average, so this is a team that is really stalling. Their last game against Air Force was played to an extremely slow 58 possessions. 

Loyola Marymount was expected to be a team that struggled offensively this year. The Lions have been better than expected so far this year. Still, as I look at who they have played I wonder if that has made the Lions offense look better than they really are this season. They have yet to play a team ranked any higher than 200th in the country in effective field goal percentage defense.

Duquesne ranks 86th in effective field goal percentage defense. The Dukes have slowed their tempo down quite a bit from a year ago. Duquesne is coached by Keith Dambrot, and he is known as a good defensive mind. 

This is a neutral site game and early season neutral contests have been strong to the under in the past decade.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tennessee Titans offense has been significantly better with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback vs. Marcus Mariota. Mariota wasn't taking enough chances, and he was holding onto the football too long. The Titans have scored 28.75 points per game in their last four contests. The running game has been solid all along, but now opposing defenses have to respect their downfield passing attack. The Jacksonville Jaguars run defense has been a big problem this year, and I expect the Titans to take advantage of that here.

The Titans defense has been solid this year, but they haven't faced that many strong offenses. The Titans have still allowed a lot of big plays. Tennessee has given up 9 plays of 30 yards or more (23rd in the NFL). 

Jacksonville has allowed 12 plays of 30 yards or more (30th in the NFL). The Titans are far more capable of taking advantage and getting those big plays than they have been in the past. 

The weather looks good for this game and the total is set very low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cleveland Browns haven't played a below average defense all season thus far. It's pretty amazing to think about that this deep in the season that would be the case, but the Browns offense has been up against so far this year. That changes here when they face one of the two or three worst defenses in the NFL in the Miami Dolphins.

Baker Mayfield has slowly started to look a bit better. The Browns offense is pretty healthy right now, and the Dolphins secondary is banged up and is a big weakness. The Browns running game has been solid all year.

Miami's offensive stats are skewed for the season. The Dolphins were horrible without Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. That's not to say that they are great with him, but they are much better than they were with Rosen at quarterback. Fitzpatrick can be a positive for the over for two reasons. He takes a lot of chances and can get big plays for his team. He can also create big plays for the other team in the form of picks that create a short field.

With the Browns without Garrett their pass rush is much weaker than normal. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* San Diego State hasn't seen a single game finish above 48 total points so far this year. I fully understand that they are playing a Hawaii team who is capable of playing very high scoring games here, but I have to take the under in a San Diego State game with a line set this high.

San Diego State's running game isn't even close to what it was a couple years ago. Washington is banged up in the backfield, and the offensive line isn't very good. Ryan Agnew is a clear weakness at quarterback. The Aztecs don't have good weapon on the outside either. 

The Aztecs still have a good defense though, and they have been good at preventing big plays.

Hawaii's offense is all about explosive plays, but I think they'll find those harder to come by this week. Hawaii only plays at the 85th rated tempo out of 130 in the country, so they play much slower on offense than most realize.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Stetson Hatters are 332nd in the nation in tempo. First year coach Donnie Jones has this team stalling as much as possible. They played a 60-55 very slow paced game against Iona yesterday. Iona is normally a very fast paced team.

Monmouth plays fairly fast, but they aren't efficient on offense. The Hawks are 276th in offensive efficiency in the country. Stetson is 313th in offensive efficiency in the country.

HP Field House is a neutral site host for this game. The under is 17-9 in the last 26 games played at this venue.

I think this game is lined a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Arizona State is likely to want to slow the pace down here and keep this a low scoring game. I believe they will know that gives them a better chance in this contest. The Sun Devils offense hasn't been very explosive this year. Arizona State has only 39 plays of 20 yards or more (105th in the nation). 

Oregon's defense has been really good all year. The Ducks rank 9th in yards per play allowed. Oregon ranks 4th in opponents QBR rating allowed. Arizona State's run offense has been really weak all year. It's hard to see Arizona State having too much offensive success in this game.

Oregon's offense has been very inconsistent this season. The Ducks have had several key injuries on offense. 

Arizona State has allowed just 12 plays of 30 yards or more all year (11th best in country). Oregon has allowed only 8 plays of 30 yards or more all year (2nd best in country). I like defenses who prevent big plays when looking for an under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers offense has been awful the last four games. First, they scored only 14 points in a loss to the hapless Vanderbilt Commodores. Missouri then followed it up by scoring 7 points at Kentucky. Kentucky is a decent defense, but they aren't great. Missouri was then shut out by Georgia and held to 6 points by Florida. The Tigers have scored a total of 27 points in their last four contests. They have only one touchdown in their last three games.

Tennessee's defense has been very solid this year. Adjusted for strength of schedule faced, this is a defense that I rate as a top 30 defense. The Volunteers aren't likely to give up many big plays here.

Missouri's defense has been excellent this year. The Tigers rank 14th in yards per play allowed. Tennessee's offense is 91st in yards per play on the season.

I think this is a tight low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Desmond Ridder is playing banged up right now, and it is making Cincinnati a more predictable team. Temple is a defense that is due for positive regression. All year Temple has been much better in yards per play allowed than points per game allowed. This is a team with a very solid front seven on defense. 

Cincinnati wants to play slowly and eat up time. The Bearcats weren't particularly good at getting big gainers even with Ridder healthy, but they have gotten worse in that area with him at less than 100% percent.

Temple's offense ranks 11th in the conference in yards per play. They have very little running game. They also lack a trustworthy quarterback.

I see a lower scoring game here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UC Riverside Highlanders are stalling in a way I haven't seen before. UC Riverside is using a whopping 22.5 seconds of the shot clock on average. That is nearly one second per possession slower than the second slowest team out of 353 in the nation. For example, Virginia is using 21.1 seconds per possession, and they have often been thought of as a team that is the slowest in the country.

Denver prefers to play slowly as well. Denver is 283rd in tempo so far this year. Denver has played against some pretty fast paced opponents so far this year, but that will change on Saturday against UC Riverside.

With the tempo I expect this game to be played at, it would take some very good shooting numbers to get this one past the total.

UC Riverside's first four games against Division I opponents have finished with this many total points: 113 points, 109 points, 111 points, and 109 points. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Georgia Bulldogs have proven to be a great team led by an amazing defense and solid running game. Georgia plays very slowly. The Bulldogs are 122nd in the nation in tempo. With a lead, Georgia has been more than willing to just run the ball up the middle and burn up the clock. They are a decent sized favorite here, so they are expected to be playing in the lead during this game. That's a positive for the under.

Texas A&M's offense has been a disappointment this year. They are 6th in the SEC in ypc, but Georgia is first in ypc allowed. Kellen Mond has been disappointing this year, and he doesn't have receivers who break many big plays.

The weather is a factor here. Georgia's field is a grass field that can get sloppy in rainstorms. There is heavy rain expected before this game and showers during the game. Winds of 10-15 mph will be blowing during the game too. 

I see both teams being conservative in this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The North Texas Mean Green expect to have Mason Fine back under center here. Fine is the best quarterback in Conference USA. Fine should be able to find a lot of holes in this Rice secondary. Rice has been pretty good at stopping the run this year, but their secondary just isn't good enough. North Texas has the quarterback and the receivers to make them pay.

Rice has started to show some more offense in recent weeks. The Owls are now up against one of the weakest defenses in the conference. The Mean Green have been giving up scores by the bunches. 

This total is set several points too low.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* We have 2 good defenses in this matchup.  VT ranks 30th and Pitt ranks 7th in yards-per-play. VT ranks 31st and Pitt ranks 6th in yard-per-rush. VT ranks 39th and Pitt ranks 14th in yard-per-attempt. Pitt also leads the nation with 45 sacks and VT ranks 12th in the same category. Both defense also rank in the top 25 of red zone scoring percentage..

*3 Star Play Over* The biggest weakness of this Notre Dame team this year is their rushing defense. We saw it against Michigan in a big way. It also has showed up in some of their other games. Notre Dame ranks only 55th in yards per carry allowed. The Fighting Irish now go up against a Boston College offense that has gotten a bunch of big gainers on the ground this year. 

Boston College has scored 89 points in their last two games. Their problem is they don't have any defense. Boston College has allowed more than 40 points in three games already this year. The Eagles are 117th in the nation in yards per play allowed.

Notre Dame ranks 38th in pace of play. The Fighting Irish will get plenty of chances to score here. Boston College ranks 4th in tempo. The Eagles should be able to score their fair share as well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The James Madison Dukes have completely changed the way they play. James Madison was 313th in average possession length last year, so they were a very slow team (1st being the quickest and 353rd the slowest). 

Where do they rank so far this year? James Madison is 2nd in the country. Coach Rowe said in the offseason that they wanted to completely change the way they play and they have followed through on that. 

New Hampshire has played to the pace of their opponent so far this year. New Hampshire is likely to be behind, so they won't be able to slow things down much here.

I don't think the oddsmakers have adjusted enough based on the new tempo James Madison is playing at this season.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Ohio State's offense has been tremendous this year with Justin Fields and J.K. Dobbins giving the team two great runners in the backfield. The offensive line has been far better than anyone could have imagined. Ohio State has excellent receivers too. Penn State has been victimized by good passing attacks the last couple weeks. I think Ohio State can do damage there and the screen game with Dobbins could give Penn State fits as well.

Ohio State's defense has been very good this year, but they haven't had to play too many good offenses. The Buckeyes will likely give up some explosive plays against a Penn State offense that takes a lot of chances.

This total was set under several key totals numbers. Both teams play quickly and I see this line as a solid value.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Utah Utes ran up the score on Mississippi Valley State, and that has made their totals since then too high. Utah isn't going to be able to score 143 points or even close to that on anyone else the rest of the season. Utah plays relatively quickly, but I don't expect them to stay as fast as they are right now in the tempo rankings. They played abnormally fast in that one game against Mississippi Valley State. Their games since have been exactly at an average tempo.

Ohio is going to be working hard to slow down the pace in this game. The Bobcats have had major trouble with turning over the basketball so far this year on offense. Ohio doesn't have great athleticism and they don't want to get into track meets. The Bobcats do have a very defensive-minded coach in Jeff Boals.

This is at a neutral site which is a positive for the under. Shooting numbers tend to be lower at these sites. In the long run the under has done very well on neutral courts.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* This game is played at Madison Square Garden. This is the best under venue in all of college basketball. It is a huge arena with a unique backdrop. 

Duke is always thought of as an offensive team, but many of their newcomers this year are even better on defense than offense. Duke is second in defensive efficiency so far this year, and I would expect them to stay in the top five all year. The Blue Devils have some elite perimeter defenders.

Georgetown does push the pace, but the Hoyas haven't gone against a defense with the same length and athleticism as Duke so far this year. 

Duke is a 13 point favorite here. The under has done well in games where Duke is a double digit favorite in the long run. Coach K's teams do slow the tempo late when they are winning.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Loyola Marymount Lions are about as good as anyone at slowing a game down. They did that again yesterday. Their win over Air Force had only 61 possessions. Loyola Marymount just shot lights out in that win. They averaged 1.28 points per possession in that game. For a team that was expected to struggle mostly on offense this year, that was a very surprising performance. I think they are likely to regress to the mean some on offense here. 

Indiana State had 49 fouls called in their game yesterday which made that game edge past the posted total. It's unlikely we will see that many fouls in this game. 

This is a neutral court game which is clearly a positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UMBC Retrievers try to slow the game to a crawl. They don't have good outside shooters. That's a big problem against Eastern Michigan's zone defense that packs it in the paint and tries to force you to beat them from outside.  Eastern Michigan can be vulnerable on the offensive boards with their zone defense as well. UMBC though has ranked in the bottom 100 in offensive rebounding the last two years.

Eastern Michigan held North Texas to 51 points on the road in their last game. The Eagles only put up 56 points. The Eagles have a lot of questions on offense, and UMBC has consistently been a very good defensive team.

Both of these teams project as very low scoring teams, and this is a neutral site contest that is a positive for the under as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Indiana State Sycamores have been a very good defensive team under coach Greg Lansing. Last year's team didn't live up to expectations on the defensive end, and Lansing made it clear that was a priority for this year. I expect them to be at least some better on defense this season. 

Keith Dambrot coached the Akron Zips for quite a few years. He had many good defensive teams. Dambrot's teams have often been better on defense than offense. Duquesne ranks 55th in effective field goal percentage defense so far this year. 

Both of these teams play at a slightly slower than average pace. There shouldn't be all that many possessions in this game. 

This is played at a neutral court in the Bahamas. Early season neutral court contests are a positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Loyola Marymount Lions ranked 349th out of 353 teams in average possession length last year. They rank 343rd out of 353 in the country this year. Loyola is clearly trying to use as much clock as possible and keep games low scoring. 

Air Force always plays at a slower than average tempo, and I don't see them forcing the tempo much in this one. The Falcons had a couple high scoring games in their first two games of the season. Their last two games have finished with 126 points and 119 points. 

Loyola Marymount scored 67 points against Nevada and 64 points against Colorado State. Both of those teams are pushing the pace, and neither of them are very good on defense.

This is played at a neutral court in the Bahamas. Early season neutral court contests are a positive for the under.

Take the under.