*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The San Francisco Giants take on the Los Angeles Dodgers in Dodger Stadium on Tuesday night. Madison Bumgarner will toe the rubber for the Giants. Kenta Maeda is on the mound for the Dodgers. 

Madison Bumgarner has a fantastic track record at Dodger Stadium. How good? Bumgarner has a 2.40 ERA in 90 innings pitched in his career at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers lineup has been good of late, but they are much worse against lefties than righties. In fact, the Dodgers have a .221 batting average against lefties and a .258 average against righties on the year.

The Giants offense has been really inconsistent this year. They are hitting .254 against right handed pitching. They are hitting .261 against lefties. Maeda has been very solid for the Dodgers in his first year.

There are a few good trends for this play. The under is 4-0 in the Dodgers last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 days or more. The under is also 12-4-1 in Bumgarner's last 17 starts vs. the Dodgers. The under is 4-1 in his last 5 road starts against the Dodgers. Take the under. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Play of the MONTH* The Atlanta Braves offense was one of the worst in baseball through the All Star break, but they have been much better so far in the second half. The Braves offense actually ranks in the top half of the majors in weighted on base average in the past 30 days. 

Arizona's offense has been solid this year. The reason this team is where they are is a pathetic rotation and an even worse bullpen. The over is 39-21-2 in the Diamondbacks home games so far this year.

In this game we have two of the worst bullpens in the game. The Diamondbacks have an unbelievably bad 7.25 ERA in the last month. That's nearly two runs worse than the second worst bullpen in the majors during that time span. The Braves bullpen ranks in the bottom ten in the majors in all key categories.

Rob Whalen has had a lot of trouble in the majors thus far, and he has been especially bad on the road. He has trouble with the home run ball, and Arizona can hit it deep at home. 

Archie Bradley has allowed 22 runs in his last four starts. Bradley has a career ERA of 5.43 at home. 

The over is 5-0 in the Braves last 5 road games. The over is 9-0 in their last 9 games when their opponent scores 5 runs or more the previous game. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a right handed starter. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of 40% or lower. The over is 4-0 in the DBacks last 4 Tuesday games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more last game. The over is 6-0 in Bradley's last 6 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 5-0-1 in his last 6 when pitching on 4 days of rest. The over is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two in Arizona. A 54-0 angle. Take the over big! TOP Play of the MONTH

*4 Star MLB Sunday's BEST Bet* The Kansas City Royals send Danny Duffy to the mound against the Minnesota Twins with Ervin Santana. Both guys come into this game throwing the ball really well. Bill Miller is the home plate umpire, and he is one of the best under umpires in baseball. His strike zone is as big as you will find, and that will help both pitchers here.

How good has Duffy been? He has allowed 3 runs or less in 14 of his last 15 starts! In the other start, he only allowed four runs. Duffy's control has been tremendous, and when you aren't putting anyone on base for free it certainly makes life easier.

Ervin Santana has allowed 2 runs or less in 8 of his last 9 starts. Santana has only 4 walks and 24 strikeouts in his last four starts. Santana has been better late in the season in his career, and his day ERA this year is much better than his night games ERA. 

The under is 36-14-1 in Miller's last 51 Sunday games behind home plate. The under is 5-0 in Duffy's last 5 home starts vs. the Twins. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Arizona Diamondbacks rank first in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. The San Diego Padres rank seventh in the majors in the same category. Both of these teams are far better against lefties than righties. The DBacks average 5.53 runs per game against lefties, and the Padres average 5.56 runs per game against lefties. 

Petco is no longer the tremendous pitching park that it was in the past. In fact, this year alone it ranks in the top ten parks for hitters when it comes to park factors. 

We have two subpar lefties going in this game. Robbie Ray has a 6.00 ERA in four starts vs. the Padres in his career. Clayton Richard has a 4.16 ERA against the DBacks in his career.

Richard has a 5.75 ERA this year despite having been in the bullpen almost the entire time. The Padres lefty has lost some velocity, and I see him as one of the weaker lefties in the majors now.

Both bullpens are worn out after last night, and the DBacks bullpen has a 7.01 ERA in the past month.

The over is 35-17-2 in the DBacks last 54 vs. a lefty. The over is 6-0 in the Padres last 6 home games. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The New York Mets offense has been really bad in recent weeks. They were able to get the offense going a bit against the lowly Arizona Diamondbacks pitching staff, but everyone hits well against the Diamondbacks. New York now has to go to a pitcher's park and take on one of the best starting pitchers in baseball in Madison Bumgarner. 

Bumgarner is the ultimate stopper, and his team needs a big effort from him here. Bumgarner has allowed just one run in his last 15 innings pitched despite having to pitch against Washington and Baltimore in those games. 

Bumgarner has started 5 games in his career against the Mets, and he has allowed a grand total of 4 runs in those games. He hasn't allowed a single run in his last 15 innings pitched against the Mets (6 of them were this year). 

Jacob Degrom has been excellent of late also. Degrom has allowed 1 run or less in 7 of his last 9 starts. That's remarkable consistency from Degrom, and he has simply gotten stronger as the year has gone along. 

Degrom has started 3 games against the Giants in his career and he has allowed only 2 earned runs (a 0.84 ERA). He hasn't allowed an earned run in his last 14 innings pitched against the Giants.

Everything points to a very low scoring game in this one. The under is 6-1 in Degrom's last 7 road starts. The under is 6-2 in Bumgarner's last 8 home starts. Take the under here. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Yu Darvish has been very good this year. Darvish has had a shortened season thanks to an injury, but he has been pitching as good as ever since he has been back. Darvish is striking out 11.60 batters per nine innings and his swinging strike rate is excellent at 12.8%. 

Oakland has been a team that has been difficult on Darvish in the past, but that means less to me now that the Athletics lineup is so much different than it was a year or two ago. Darvish has a 2.77 ERA and his advanced metrics are all excellent so far this year.

Sean Manaea has allowed 3 runs or less in 6 of his last 7 starts. He has a really high upside, and I like to see his swinging strike rate up at 11.6% like it currently is on the season. 

Kerwin Danley is the umpire here and the under is a massive 72-35-5 in his last 112 games behind the plate.

The under is 4-0 in the Rangers last 4 home games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a lefty. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 vs. the AL West. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series. The under is 4-0-1 in the A's last 5 road games vs. a home win percentage of 60% or higher. A 22-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Cleveland Indians will start Corey Kluber in this one. Kluber has pitched really well of late. After a slow start, he is once again commanding his pitches really well. Kluber has allowed 3 runs or less in 8 of his last 9 starts. Kluber's strikeout rate has gone up in the past month, and he faces a White Sox team here that strikes out a lot against right handed pitching. 

The White Sox have really struggled offensively against righties this year. They are 23rd in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching, and they face one of the best right handed pitchers in baseball on Tuesday night. 

Jose Quintana is second to last in the American League in run support. The White Sox are averaging 3.2 runs per game in his starts. Quintana is a very underrated pitcher, and he has been amazing in Cleveland in the past. In 46 and 1/3 innings pitched in Cleveland, Quintana has a brilliant 1.17 ERA. 

The under is 6-0 in Quintana's last 6 starts vs. Cleveland. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 road starts vs. Cleveland. The under is 6-0 in Kluber's last 6 starts vs. the White Sox. A 16-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Sunday's BEST Bet* The Oakland A's start Zachary Neal here and he hasn't been able to put anyone away all year. He has 11 strikeouts in 29 and 1/3 innings pitched. He had a FIP of well over 4 in Triple A, and I think his days in the majors are likely short lived, at least as a starter. 

Wade LeBlanc has a 4.74 ERA and a 5.64 FIP on the year. This is a guy who has never had much success in the past in the majors, and I don't really expect that to change in the long run either. LeBlanc faces an Oakland lineup that has been better against lefties than righties this year. 

The ball flies significantly better during the day in Oakland, and the wind is blowing out on Sunday. Mark Wegner is the umpire here, and he is a big over umpire. He has a small strike zone and the over is 20-7-2 in his last 29 games behind home plate. Take the over here. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Jered Weaver is a really bad pitcher at this stage of his career. Weaver has no velocity and is striking out a measly 4.70 batters per nine innings this year. That's easily the lowest of his career.

The Indians offense ranks third in the majors in wOBA at home this year. They have really been putting up the offensive numbers on their home field. Jered Weaver has an ugly 5.22 ERA on the road this year. He has a 5.19 ERA overall this year, but his XFIP is 5.78, so if anything he has gotten some good luck this year. I think Cleveland puts up a big number here.

Trevor Bauer is really inconsistent. The Angels offense has been good over the last couple months, and Bauer is fully capable of getting shelled. In his career, Bauer has a 3.78 ERA before the All Star Break and a 5.30 ERA after the break. Bauer allowed 25 runs in 5 starts before shutting down Washington last start. I don't think his issues are fixed yet, and I see the Angels scoring several here.

Clint Fagan ranks 82nd out of 89 umpires in my database in strikes called in the past five years, so he is a good over guy. 

Take the over in this one. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Baltimore Orioles have been in a major offensive slump of late. They have scored 3 runs or less in 6 of their last 10 games. Add in the fact that they are much worse against left handed pitching compared to right handed pitching, and this looks like a good spot for Madison Bumgarner. The Orioles have a .269 average against righties and only a .234 average against lefties. 

Kevin Gausman has 4 very good starts in his last 5 outings. Gausman gives up a lot of fly balls, but that isn't necessarily a bad thing at AT&T Park. The Giants offense has been inconsistent the whole year. 

The Orioles lose a hitter here in the NL park, and that's a positive for the under as well.

Brian O'Nora is a solid under umpire because of his strikes called percentage long-term. He'll help both pitchers. 

The under is 4-0 in the Orioles last 4 interleague games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the NL West. The under is 8-0 in Gausman's last 8 starts when the Orioles score 5 runs or more last game. The under is 5-0 in the Giants last 5 home games vs. a righty. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 home games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games. The under is 4-0 in Bumgarner's last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. A 40-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Minnesota Twins have been a tremendous over team all year. Minnesota is hitting the ball really well of late, and their pitching staff has been awful. What has that meant? Loads of overs. The over is 9-1 in their last 10 games. Why? Because one team has scored 6 runs or more in 9 of their 10 games. In fact, in 3 of the Twins last 10 games there has been a 10 spot put up by one side alone. The Twins bullpen has been used very heavily of late, and they are worn down.

Tyler Duffey has a miserable 7.22 ERA at home on the year. He threw a good game last time out against the Astros, but this guy has been as inconsistent as anyone in the majors, and expecting two straight strong games from him is a lot to ask.

Dillon Gee doesn't pitch deep into the game, and the Royals bullpen is a mess of late. Their middle relief isn't any good, and they have a ton of injuries in the bullpen. 

The over is 4-0 in the Twins last 4 home games vs. a right handed starter. The over is 7-0 in their last 7 vs. the AL Central. The over is 6-0 in Duffey's last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams. A 21-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Colorado Rockies come into this game without Carlos Gonzalez and Mark Reynolds. This is a wounded team that came to Philadelphia on Thursday night after a long game. 

Philadelphia's offense has been one of the worst in baseball all year. They are hitting just .235 against right handed pitching this year. They are up against a very good righty in Jon Gray on Friday night. Gray has been inconsistent at Coors Field, but on the road he has been great. He has terrific stuff, and I expect him to pitch well against the Phillies for the second time this year.

Jake Thompson starts for the Phillies. Thompson is making just his second major league start. While the Rockies can be a tough matchup at times, he is catching them without a couple of their best hitters. The Rockies have once again been relatively weak offensively on the road this year as well.

The under is 6-1 in Gray's last 7 starts. The under is 8-3 in the Rockies last 11 road games. The under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Jaime Garcia is a totally different pitcher when pitching at home. Garcia has a career 2.79 ERA at home. The Reds have hit him around at Great American Ballpark, but he has consistently been very good against Cincinnati at home. 

While Cincinnati has been more competitive lately, it is primarily due to improved pitching. With Jay Bruce gone, there is no doubt that this lineup is weakened. Anthony Desclafani has a ton of talent and he has been remarkably consistent. In 8 of his last 9 starts he has a quality start. He has allowed 2 runs or less in 6 of those 9 starts. 

Angel Hernandez is a good umpire to have behind the plate for this one, because he is a strike caller. He'll help both pitchers. Garcia has a 1.40 ERA in 3 starts with him behind the dish.

The under is 6-1-1 in Desclafani's last 8 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 18-6-2 in Garcia's last 26 home starts. Take the under here. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Wily Peralta had a 6.68 ERA in 13 starts with the Brewers this year. He actually started the team's season opener, but then pitched so poorly he was sent down to the minors. Peralta proceeded to make 10 starts in Triple A. He has a 6.31 ERA in Triple A. Peralta can't get guys out at any level right now.

Tyrell Jenkins is a mid level prospect for the Braves. He might end up being a serviceable starter, but he should have a lot of growing pains. He has a 4.33 ERA and a 6.50 FIP so far this year. 

The Braves lineup has come alive somewhat in the last few games. They have scored 5 runs or more five times in that span. They also have an 8 and 13 run performance thrown in there. Against Peralta, they should score several.

The Brewers offense has been hitting the ball well of late, and the Braves have a subpar starter and a poor bullpen as well.

I look for plenty of runs here. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Tuesday's BEST Bet* The Miami Marlins have a really good offense. Dee Gordon is now back and he's the table setter for a great group of young hitters. Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, and Derek Dietrich are having great seasons. Giancarlo Stanton is coming on a bit and hits left handed pitching really well. The Marlins have always been better against lefties, and Matt Moore is a vulnerable lefty.

Matt Moore has walked 10 guys in his last two starts. Putting guys on base like that will usually hurt you a lot against a deep lineup like the Marlins lineup. Moore is allowing 1.32 HR's per nine innings, and the Marlins have plenty of pop as well.

Tom Koehler is another guy that puts a bunch of runners on base. Koehler has the highest walk rate of his career this season. He has a SIERA of 4.89, and all the advanced metrics are low on him. Koehler is coming off a couple nice starts, which gives us a lower number here on the over.

The Giants lineup is getting healthier, and this offense is very capable of going on a tear.

The over is 6-0 in the Marlins last 6 home games. The over is 9-0 in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 7-1 in the Marlins last 8 after allowing more than 5 runs last game. A 22-1 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Michael Fulmer has been excellent this year. I've made good money backing him and the Tigers, but I do believe he is due for some regression soon. Fulmer has been shaky in his last few starts. He has a FIP of 4.78 or higher in his last 3 outings. He has a 2.42 ERA for the year, but his FIP is 3.76 and his SIERA is 3.98. He is stranding 84% of runners on base, which has to come back to normal at some point.

Hisashi Iwakuma has terrible career numbers against this Detroit lineup. The Tigers have a .361 batting average and a .415 OBP against him. Iwakuma isn't the pitcher he was a couple years ago, and I see the Tigers getting to him here.

Both of these bullpens rank in the bottom six in the majors in FIP in the past month. 

Seattle averages more than 5 runs per game against right handed pitching. The Tigers average more than 5 runs per game against right handed pitching as well. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Arizona Diamondbacks and Milwaukee Brewers are way out of the running this year, and it will be a long last couple months for them. Matt Garza is coming off a pretty good start against Pittsburgh, but this is a guy who has allowed 4 runs or more in 5 of his last 7 starts. Garza's strikeout rate is at a career low.

Patrick Corbin has been a big disappointment this year. Corbin has a 5.30 ERA overall and a 6.91 ERA in 10 starts at home this year. Milwaukee is much better against left handed pitching. The Brewers have a .339 OBP vs. lefties compared to only .314 against righties. 

Both lineups have a good history against the opposing starter here, though Milwaukee hasn't faced Corbin often. 

John Tumpane is a bit of an over umpire and that helps as well. Another big help is the bullpens here. Milwaukee's bullpen is a subpar bullpen. The Arizona bullpen is now the worst bullpen in the majors.

The over is 13-3 in the DBacks last 16 home games. The over is 15-5-1 in Corbin's last 21 starts. Take the over. 

*3 Star TGIF Red HOT CASH* It's a showdown between Noah Syndergaard and Justin Verlander here. Syndergaard is arguably baseball's best young pitcher, and Verlander dominated baseball for a long time himself. 

Verlander has turned back the clock in his last few outings. He has allowed 2 runs or less in each of his last six starts. There is little reason to believe the injury-plagued Mets lineup will be the ones to stop that streak. Verlander has a FIP of 1.71 or lower in 3 of his last 6 starts, so it hasn't been good luck, it has been great pitching.

Syndergaard hasn't quite bit at the top of his game the last few starts, but in his short career so far Thor has brought his best for the big games. This is a big game in that it is a much anticipated showdown for him vs. a great Detroit lineup and a Cy Young winner in Verlander.

The Mets offense is a mess now. The Tigers offense is very good, but Syndergaard has the dominant stuff to slow down any offense.

The under is 6-1-1 in Verlander's last 8 home starts. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Marco Estrada has pitched very well this year. Estrada has a 3.02 ERA on the season. In his career, the Astros lineup has only hit .242 against Estrada. Houston's lineup has been very streaky this year, and of late they have been slumping.

Collin McHugh starts this one for the Astros. McHugh is a quality pitcher who is coming off a really bad start at Detroit. Before that start, he had a tremendous stretch of good starts. He pitches better at home and Toronto has several guys banged up right now.

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire and he ranks second in my umpire database in strikes called percentage in the past five years. He loves giving pitchers the edge and that should help both of these guys a great deal.

Houston's bullpen has been tremendous and that is another reason I like this play. 

The under is 31-15-1 in the Astros last 47 games. Take the under here. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Oakland A's offense wasn't good to start with, and now they traded away Josh Reddick. Reddick was by far their best hitter, and he will be badly missed. When he went down with an injury earlier this year, the offense was a mess. I expect Oakland to be one of the worst offenses in the majors the rest of the season.

Matt Shoemaker's line from last outing against KC is misleading. He pitched very well for much of the game and was undone by some questionable calls and one big inning. Shoemaker has been amazing at home in his career (2.79 ERA). He has walked only 2 guys and struck out 19 in his last three outings.

Sean Manaea has been amazing in his last few starts. Manaea has huge upside potential, and he is starting to show it. He hasn't walked a single batter in his last four starts! He has a 4.57 ERA, but a FIP of 3.98.

The under is 3-0-1 in the A's last 4 following a loss. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 after giving up 5 runs or more. The under is 4-0 in the Angels last 4 following an off day. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 overall. The under is 4-0 in Shoemaker's last 4 home starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 vs. the AL West. A 22-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Dylan Bundy has an extremely high upside, and he has flashed his potential in his last two starts. Bundy has one walk and 13 strikeouts in his last two games. He has excellent stuff and I like his potential.

Yu Darvish has elite stuff as well. He hasn't been getting wins lately, but it isn't because he has pitched poorly. The Rangers haven't given him run support. Darvish has a 3.09 ERA, but his FIP is a really impressive 2.57. He is striking out 12.66 batters per nine innings, which is the highest of his career.

The Orioles offense is good, but they have been slumping of late. Until they come out of it, I'll look to find spots for unders on them. With the wind blowing in and two pitchers with great upside, I like this as one of them.

The under is 3-0-1 in Darvish's last 4 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 7-0 in the Orioles last 7 home games vs. a righty. The under is 9-0 in their last 9 following a win. The under is 8-0 in their last 8 home games. The under is 8-0 in their last 8 after allowing 2 runs or less last game. A 35-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Boston Red Sox start lefty Eduardo Rodriguez in this game. Rodriguez was highly touted prospect who struggled early this year, but he recently went down to Triple A and changed up some flaws in his mechanics. Rodriguez has pitched better in his last three outings.

Seattle played the late game at Wrigley Field and lost a heartbreaker in extra innings on Sunday night. They might be a little sluggish in this game, and if anything I think that leads to a lower scoring game. The Mariners rank 20th in wOBA vs. lefties. 

James Paxton has had a bunch of bad luck this year. Paxton has a 4.76 ERA thanks to a very unlucky .376 batting average on balls in play. This is a guy who has a great swinging strike rate of 11.9%. Boston unquestionably has a very good offense, but I think Paxton can at least slow them down.

There has only been one game all year in Seattle with a total this high. Safeco is a great pitchers park and I think this number is just too high to pass up.

The under is 8-0 in the Red Sox last 8 road games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a lefty. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 overall. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the AL West. The under is 6-0 in Rodriguez's last 6 starts vs a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two in Seattle. A 31-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Texas Rangers have badly needed a starting pitcher. They traded for Lucas Harrell. Harrell isn't necessarily a bad starter, but he also isn't a fix to their problem. Harrell has been pitching in Atlanta and pitching better than expected, but things get much tougher pitching in Texas in the scorching heat and against better lineups. I don't expect Harrell to pitch as well moving forward.

Dillon Gee hasn't gone more than 5 and 1/3 innings in any of his starts this year. Gee 4.54 ERA and a 4.98 FIP. Gee has always been a guy who struggles with the long ball, and that's dangerous in this park.

The weather forecast is ridiculous here. The game time temperature is expected to be 98 degrees. Home plate umpire Pat Hoberg is in my database as a small over umpire, and that helps also. 

Both bullpens struggle in the middle relief, and I think both starters will be out early. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Cleveland Indians start Corey Kluber here. He has five very good starts in his last six outings. Kluber was hit hard by the Toronto Blue Jays in his one bad start, but the Oakland Athletics offense will never be confused with the Blue Jays offense. 

Sonny Gray has been struggling a lot more this year, but his career numbers against the Indians are tremendous. Gray has pitched 28 innings against Cleveland and allowed only 2 runs. That's a 0.64 ERA. Gray also has a career 2.82 ERA in day games (3.60 at night), so this is a good spot for him. 

Helping both pitchers is home plate umpire Hunter Wendelstedt. He has become a good under umpire in the last few years. His strikeout/walk ratio is near the top, and the under is 9-1-2 in his last 12 games behind the plate.

A relatively mild temperature and wind blowing in should benefit this play also. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies have the two worst offenses in the National League. They played to a 2-1 game on Friday night, and I'm looking for a second straight low scoring game in this one. 

Jeremy Hellickson isn't a great pitcher, but he does have a history of quieting weak offenses. Hellickson gives up a lot of fly balls, which isn't a terrible thing when you are pitching in Atlanta against an offense that doesn't have very much power.

Julio Teheran has been really good for the Braves this year. Teheran has a 2.84 ERA at home in his career, and a nice 3.13 ERA in the 2nd half of the season in his career. In 78 and 2/3 innings, Teheran has a 2.29 ERA against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Teheran has received the lowest amount of run support of any pitcher in the big leagues this year at a miserable 2.50 runs per game. Hellickson has received a paltry 3.24 runs per game, which is the 8th lowest of any pitcher in the majors. 

The under is 7-0 in Hellickson's last 7 starts. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 after a quality start. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 when pitching on 4 days of rest. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 vs. the NL East. The under is 7-0 in Teheran's last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts during game 3 of a series. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. A 36-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The San Francisco Giants have gotten a lot of good starts out of Johnny Cueto this year. Cueto has been lights out at home. In his career, Cueto has a 2.26 ERA when pitching at AT&T Park. Washington's offense is very good against lefties, but only mediocre against right handed pitching. The Nationals hit .239 against righties vs. .261 against lefties. 

The San Francisco Giants have scored 2 runs or less in 5 of their last 8 games. The Giants offense hasn't been stringing together hits. Tanner Roark is an underrated starter for the Nationals. Roark has had a FIP below 3 in 5 of his last 6 starts. Roark has been good in his career at suppressing home runs. 

Cueto generally pitches deep into the game which gives the Giants bullpen a break. The Nationals have one of the best bullpens in baseball. 

The under is 5-1 in Roark's last 6 starts. The under is 5-2 in Cueto's last 7 home starts. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Danny Duffy takes on Matt Shoemaker on Wednesday night in KC. Phil Cuzzi is the umpire here, and he is one of the best under umpires in baseball. Duffy has been the Royals best starter so far this year. He has been consistent and his walks are way down from last year.

Matt Shoemaker started the season out slowly, but he has been awesome of late. Shoemaker has a 3.99 ERA and a 3.29 FIP, so he is still due some positive regression. The Royals offense has been struggling of late.

Kansas City's bullpen is healthy again, and Shoemaker has been pitching deep into games for the Angels. I see a close low scoring game in this one. Take the under here. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Doug Eddings is the umpire in this one, and that is great news for under bettors. In the past five years, no one has called a higher percentage of pitches a strike than Eddings. He has a very high strikeout to walk ratio. He'll do everything he can to help these two pitchers.

The weather conditions favor the under. The wind will be blowing in from center field at about 10 mph and the temperature will only be in the low 70's for this one.

Both Foltynewicz and Duffey are inconsistent, but they are both young starters with some potential. The Braves have a miserable OBP of .299 against righties and the Twins are a weak .310 in the same category. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Dylan Bundy was the number one rated prospect in the Baltimore organization coming into this year. Bundy has an extremely high upside. He flashed that potential last outing against Cleveland. He faces a free swinging Rockies team that isn't very good offensively on the road in this contest.

Jon Gray is a good pitcher who has a bunch of potential for the Rockies moving forward as well. Gray has allowed 3 runs or less in his last four games. Baltimore's offense is absolutely capable of scoring a bunch, but they have been in a funk of late. The Orioles haven't scored more than 5 runs in any of their last 15 games. 

D.J. Reyburn is the umpire here, and he is a very solid under guy. He'll give both pitchers the corners throughout in this one.

The under is 4-0 in the Rockies last 4 road games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring five runs or more last game. The under is 14-0 in the Orioles last 14 games overall. The under is 8-0 in their last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 home games. The under is 11-0 in their last 11 vs. a right handed pitcher. The under is 6-0 in the Orioles last 6 following a loss. A 55-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Cincinnati Reds start Anthony Desclafani in this one. Desclafani has very good stuff, and he's in great form coming into this one. Desclafani has been the picture of consistency this year as well. He has gone at least 6 innings in all of his starts except for one. He has also allowed 3 runs or less in all but one of his starts. Desclafani hasn't walked a single batter in his last three outings.

The San Francisco Giants offense is ice cold right now. The Giants miss Hunter Pence and Joe Panik. How bad has this offense been of late? They have scored 2 runs or less in 5 of their 8 games after the All Star break. 

Cincinnati's offense has been inconsistent this year. Jake Peavy starts for the Giants, and he has a solid 3.98 ERA at home this year. This is a great pitchers park and the temperature here is supposed to be only 57 degrees for this game.

The under is 6-0-3 in Desclafani's last 9 starts during game 1 of a series. The under is 3-0-3 in his last 6 starts. The under is 3-0-2 in his last 5 following a quality start. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 following 4 days of rest. The under is 6-0-1 in his last 7 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in the Giants last 5 vs. a right handed starter. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more last game. A 30-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The weather in Cincinnati is perfect for the over. The heat index is expected to be 102 degrees during the middle of this game. Great American Ballpark is a good hitters park all the time, but it is a great hitters park when the weather is like this. 

Sam Holbrook is the umpire for this game. He ranks 84th out of 88 umpires in called strikes in the past five years according to my umpire database. Holbrook is a very good over umpire. The over is 34-16-3 in his last 53 Sunday games behind the dish.

Zack Godley starts here for Arizona, and I don't think he has the stuff to be a starter. Godley doesn't have enough plus pitches. He doesn't pitch deep into games, and that's a problem for Arizona too. The Diamondbacks bullpen has the single worst ERA in baseball since the All Star break. 

Brandon Finnegan is a lefty with some potential for the Reds, but he has been a mess of late. Finnegan is walking 4.57 batters per 9 innings, so Holbrook is a bad umpire for him to draw. Finnegan doesn't have a FIP below 4 in any of his last five starts. The Diamondbacks rate fourth in the majors in offensive production against lefties.

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* I had the under on Sunday when these two teams met with this same pitching matchup. The final score was 1-0 as Atlanta scored in the bottom of the 9th to win. I certainly don't expect anything like that at Coors Field, but I do think 11 is too high for these pitchers.

Julio Teheran has been the picture of consistency this year. He has very good numbers against this Rockies lineup as well. Teheran generally pitches pretty deep into the game. 

Jon Gray has allowed 2 runs or less in 8 of his last 14 starts. He has been great on the road all year, and of late he has pitched very well at home. Gray has the stuff to be the number one starter for Colorado for a long time.

The weather isn't as hot here as it was a week ago, and that helps as well.

The under is 8-0 in the Braves last 8 following a loss. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more. The under is 7-0-1 in the Braves last 8 vs. a right handed starter. The under is 6-0 in Teheran's last 6 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0-1 in his last 5 vs. the NL West. The under is 4-0 in Gray's last 4 vs. the NL East. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 Friday starts. A 36-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Houston Astros start Lance McCullers here. McCullers has been great at home throughout his career. He has a career 2.16 ERA at home. In 104 and 1/3 innings pitched at home in his career, he has 119 strikeouts. McCullers has dominating stuff, and I expect him to perform well here. McCullers has held Angels batters to a .200 average in 60 career plate appearances.

Matt Shoemaker started the year miserably and yet his season long numbers are looking pretty good right now. Shoemaker has a 4.08 ERA and a 3.35 FIP. His control has been amazing in the last couple months, and he's been using his splitter far more often. 

The Astros bullpen doesn't get enough credit. From top to bottom, this is probably the deepest bullpen in baseball. Houston has been a good under team this year in big part because their bullpen is great at shutting down opponents late in the game. 

Both of these two teams rank in the top ten in the majors in defensive runs saved also.

The under is 4-0 in McCullers last 4 starts on 5 days of rest. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 starts during game one of a series. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 7-0 in his last 7 overall. The under is 8-0 in his last 8 vs. the AL West. A 33-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Rays have a miserable .302 weighted on base average against right handed pitching, but they have a very good .342 wOBA against lefties. Tampa Bay will face Jorge De La Rosa on Wednesday afternoon at Coors Field. De La Rosa has struggled this year, and this is a difficult spot for him.

Chris Archer hasn't been himself this year. Archer is giving up a bunch of home runs, and he is walking too many people. That's a bad combination for Coors Field. Colorado hits right handed pitching very well.

Coors Field is always a hitters park, but in the afternoon with a 91 degree temperature at gametime, these are perfect conditions for an over.

Paul Emmel is the umpire here, and the over is 86-55 in his last 141 games behind home plate. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Atlanta Braves start Lucas Harrell here. Harrell has been pretty good so far this year. He has a nice 3.63 ERA and a 2.92 FIP. Harrell pitched well in Triple A before getting called up to the big leagues.

The Reds start Anthony Desclafani, and he is a very talented youngster. Desclafani has a 2.55 ERA on the year and a 3.48 FIP. He is due for some regression, but I do expect Desclafani to be a good pitcher through the rest of the season.

These two offenses are weak. The Braves have the worst offense in the majors. The Reds offense ranks near the bottom in most categories as well. 

Angel Hernandez is calling the balls and strikes here and he's a solid under umpire. He has a big strike zone, and he'll help both starters in this one. It is an early get away day game, which means there may be some big names out of the lineup as well. This total is too high given the situation.

The under is 6-0 in the Braves last 6 games vs a right handed starter. The under is 3-0-2 in Desclafani's last 5 starts. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 starts following a quality start last outing. A 12-0 angle. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Chicago White Sox have scored a grand total of 4 runs in their last five games. This White Sox offense has really been in a severe funk. Jose Quintana has gotten terrible run support for the last three years, and this year is no different.

Quintana is one of the most underrated pitchers in the majors, but he can't pick up the wins because the run support severely lacks in his games. Wade Miley isn't a great pitcher, but he is better than his numbers so far this year suggest. Expect a better second half from him.

Seattle's offense has been much worse against lefties this year, and they are up against a very good one. 

Kerwin Danley is behind home plate here and that's a very good thing for the under.

The under is 4-0-1 in the White Sox last 5 games. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 following a loss. The under is 4-0 in the Mariners last 4 vs. a lefty. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 during game two of a series. The under is 4-0 in Danley's last 4 games behind home plate. A 26-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Angels offense is red hot right now. They put up 9 runs last night after being held scoreless through the first 3 innings. It would be a big surprise if the Angels are quieted down here by Kyle Lohse. Lohse has a 5.06 ERA in 10 Triple A starts this year. Simply put, he isn't the answer for Texas as a starting pitcher. I expect this to go badly for him.

Tim Lincecum had one decent outing against Oakland, and it has been all downhill since then. The Rangers have been very good on the road, and they should have a lot of scoring chances.

Both of these bullpens rank in the worst five pens in the majors.

Mark Wegner is the umpire here, and he rates in my top 5 over umpires according to my spreadsheet. This is a guy who doesn't like to call strikes, and he can create some ump shows with his unwillingness to call strike three even on good pitches.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Sunday Night Baseball CASH* The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees square off in a big Sunday night showdown. The Red Sox have won the first two in this series, and look to finish off a sweep here.

David Price has been throwing the ball really well lately. Price pitched into some terrible luck early in the year, and it was only a matter of time until his results improved. The Yankees have struggled all year against left handed pitching, and I think Price can pitch deep into this one.

Masahiro Tanaka has held this Red Sox lineup to a .240 average and a .258 OBP all-time. If Tanaka can pitch well here and turn it over to the best bullpen in the majors, that bodes well for this under play.

The under is 4-0 in the Red Sox last 4. The under is 4-0 in the Red Sox last 4 after a win. The under is 5-0 in the Red Sox last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less last game. The under is 5-0 in Price's last 5 starts vs. the AL East. An 18-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Atlanta Braves haven't given Julio Teheran any run support this year. They are averaging only 2.00 runs per game in his home starts this year. Teheran has been very solid, and he faces a Rockies lineup that generally struggles to score on the road. 

Jon Gray is a very good young pitcher, and I expect him to be the ace of this Colorado staff for the next few years. Gray hasn't totally figured out pitching at home, but he has been great on the road. His raw stuff is excellent, and the Braves offense is among the worst in all of baseball.

The under is 4-0 in the Rockies last 4 games during game 3 of a series. The under is 4-0 in the Braves last 4 Sunday games. The under is 5-0 in the Braves last 5 after a loss. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a right hander. The under is 5-0 in Teheran's last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 8-0 in his last 8 starts following a Braves loss. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 starts vs. the NL West. A 34-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB First Half Finale CASH* The Houston Astros have struggled against left handed pitching this year. Houston ranks 24th in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitchers. Sean Manaea has been a little shaky in his first few outings in the big leagues, but he has great stuff and has a ton of potential.

Dallas Keuchel has been pitching better in recent games. Keuchel has always been much better at home, and he gets the home start here. His day game ERA in his career is 3.57 (3.91 at night), so that's another positive for him. This A's lineup is weaker than the average as well.  The Astros have a shutdown bullpen also.

Vic Carapazza is calling the balls and strikes here, and he is a big under guy. He ranks in the top 8 umpires in the big leagues in strikes called both this year and in the past five years overall. His strikeout/walk ratio is much higher than the league average. His presence here is a big positive for the under. 

The under is 21-8 in the Astros last 29 games. The under is 4-0 in Carapazza's last 4 Sunday games behind the plate. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Cleveland Indians start Danny Salazar in this one, and he has been great this year. Salazar does sometimes struggle with issuing too many free passes, but with Phil Cuzzi behind the home plate, he gets a massive strike zone to work with. Salazar has great strikeout stuff, and this Yankees lineup has been a disappointment this year. 

C.C. Sabathia has been pretty solid this year. Sabathia has a 3.48 ERA and a 3.80 FIP. Sabathia isn't going to wow anyone, but he is better than many realize as well. 

The Indians bullpen has been much better of late, and everyone knows how good this Yankees bullpen can be. 

The wind is blowing is forecasted to be blowing in at about 15 mph for this one.

The under is 7-0 in Sabathia's last 7 starts on four days of rest. The under is 3-0-1 in Salazar's last 4 starts on 4 days of rest. The under is 6-0 in Cuzzi's last 6 games behind home plate. A 16-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Mike Pelfrey is one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball. Pelfrey constantly puts a bunch of guys on base, and is able to get out of trouble more often than you'd think, but when he faces the best offenses that generally doesn't work. The Blue Jays didn't look like one of the best offenses early this year, but the potential was always there. They are finally hitting the ball extremely well right now. 

Toronto has scored 44 runs in their last five games. Pelfrey should have a lot of trouble quieting this offense.

J.A. Happ has outpitched his peripheral stats all year. Happ isn't a terrible pitcher, but he also isn't that good. Happ has a tough matchup here in that he faces a Detroit offense that can stack up all kinds of right handed power bats against him. Happ has an ERA of 5.6 in his career against the Tigers. He allowed 6 runs in 5 innings earlier this year against the Tigers.

Joe West is a good over umpire, and both pitchers have struggled with him behind the dish in the past. The over is also 16-5-1 in the last 22 meetings between these teams. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Diego Padres offense has been bad for the year as a whole, but they have been much better in the past month. The Padres have gotten much improved hitting from Upton as well as Matt Kemp in recent weeks. 

The Arizona Diamondbacks offense has improved as Yasmany Tomas and Jean Segura have produced very well in the last month. 

Chase Field is a great hitters park when the roof is open, and it is proving to still be a pretty good park for hitters when the roof is closed. 

Shelby Miller starts for the Diamondbacks and his numbers this year are just awful. Miller allowed only 26.7% hard contact last year, but this year it is up to 35%. That's a very telling number. He is walking 4.62 batters per nine innings, and that has hurt him badly.

Colin Rea isn't very good, and on the road his ERA is north of 5. Rea doesn't have enough plus pitches.

Both bullpens are taxed and have pitched poorly of late.

The over is 6-0 in Rea's last 6 following a quality start. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts. The over is 5-0 in the Padres last 5 vs. a team with a home win percentage of 40% or lower. The over is 7-0 in Rea's last 7 games after the Padres gave up 5 runs or more last game. The over is 6-0 in the DBacks last 6 games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a righty. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 home games overall. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 after giving up 5 runs or more. The over is 5-0-1 in Miller's last 6 starts when the DBacks opponent scores 5 runs or more last game. The over is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams. A 56-0 angle. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night MONEYMAKER* The Los Angeles Dodgers offense has finally heated up. They underachieved for a long time. Los Angeles has scored 5 runs or more in five of their last seven games. They have only scored less than 4 once in their last seven games. Corey Seager is leading the way for this lineup. 

Chris Tillman was never as good as his numbers earlier this year looked. Tillman is a mediocre pitcher and he has slumped in a big way in recent outings. I'll be surprised if the Dodgers don't keep up their recent streak of good hitting with Tillman on the mound for Baltimore.

Kenta Maeda is a good pitcher for the Dodgers, but this Baltimore offense is excellent against right handed pitching. Baltimore averages 5.37 runs per game against right handed pitching. Baltimore has so many power hitters, and I think a home run or two from them here is likely.

The over is 6-0 in the Orioles last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more last game. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a righty. The over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 interleague road games. The over is 3-0-1 in the Dodgers last 4 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 8-0 in home plate umpire Mike DiMuro's last 8 games behind home plate. A 26-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Arizona Diamondbacks rank third in weighted on base average against left-handed pitching so far this year. Christian Friedrich is definitely a subpar left-handed pitcher. Friedrich has some solid starts earlier in the year, but he is trending downward in recent outings. I expect him to give up several runs in this one.

The Padres bullpen has been overworked of late, and they have been getting hit hard. Arizona should have plenty of chances to score late as well.

Zach Godley hasn't been a good starter in the big leagues, and he hasn't even pitched well as a starter in the minors. Godley doesn't have enough good pitches to get through the order multiple times consistently. 

The over is 4-0 in the Padres last 4 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of 40% or less. The over is 6-0 in Friedrich's last 6 starts when the Padres opponent allows 5 runs or more last game.  The over is 5-0 in the DBacks last 5 games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 home games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 games after allowing 5 runs or more last game. The over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these teams. A 34-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Dallas Keuchel has been slowly getting his act together of late. Keuchel has always been much better at home, and I expect a good performance from him in this one. Keuchel has had much better control in his last few starts, and that has been key for him. 

Taijuan Walker has been good this year, and he has the stuff to breakout in a big way. The Astros lineup was scorching hot for a while, but they appear to be cooling off a bit of late.

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire in this one, and in my umpires database he has called the second highest percentage of strikes of any umpire in the big leagues in the past five years. He is a great under umpire. Miller has a good over record this year, but he is still calling a lot of strikes and ringing up a lot of batters. He's an under guy. If this play loses, it won't be because of Miller.

Look for a low scoring game. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* The Oakland Athletics have scored 6 runs or more in 6 of their last 8 games. The first two games of this series against Pittsburgh are the games that they haven't scored those 6 runs. I think they have a real chance to get back to scoring runs again in this one.

Francisco Liriano has been terrible in general this year, and he has been especially bad on the road. Liriano has a 5.33 ERA overall this year and a 5.46 FIP, so it isn't bad luck that is getting him this season. Liriano has a horrible 6.98 ERA in seven road starts this year. 

Oakland is much better against lefties than right handed pitchers. The A's average 4.82 runs per game against lefties on the year. Josh Reddick is back in the lineup for Oakland, and he got on base every time he came to the plate last night. He is a big key to the offense in Oakland.

Pittsburgh will face rookie Daniel Mengden here. Mengden has good numbers, but he hasn't faced great offenses thus far. Mengden is still raw and this Pirates lineup is underrated. 

Sam Holbrook is the umpire here, and he ranks 82nd out of 88 umpires in strikes called in the past five years. Less strikes called is obviously a great thing for the over.

The over is 4-0 in the Pirates last 4 Sunday games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 after their opponent scores 2 runs or less. The over is 4-0 in Liriano's last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 8-1-1 in the A's last 10 games.  A 26-1 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Jose Quintana has been one of the most underrated starting pitchers in baseball the last couple years. Quintana had a 3.32 ERA in 2014. He had a 3.36 ERA last year. He has a 3.18 ERA so far this year. He's just a rock solid lefty. 

Quintana has great control and typically keeps the ball in the ballpark very well. That's important since Houston is a power hitting team. Quintana's strikeout rate is the best of his career right now as well. Houston has a .248 average against right handed pitchers and only a .227 average against lefties. 

The White Sox offense has been a big disappointment of late. Chicago will go up against Collin McHugh here. McHugh has allowed only 5 runs in his last three starts. 

The White Sox bullpen is bad, but Quintana generally pitches deep into the game. The Astros bullpen is one of the best in baseball.

The under is 4-0 in the White Sox last 4 Sunday games. The under is 5-0 in Quintana's last 5 starts after the White Sox allowed 5 runs or more last game. The under is 7-0 in his last 7 games after the White Sox opponent scored 5 runs or more in their last game. The under is 4-0 in the Astros last 4 Sunday games. The under is 8-0 in their last 8 after their opponent scores 5 runs or more. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 after Houston gives up 5 runs or more in their last game. The under is 4-0 in McHugh's last 4 Sunday starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts on 5 days rest. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. A 51-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* It's hard to be any worse against a team than Jimmy Nelson has been against the St. Louis Cardinals. Nelson has a miserable 9.51 ERA against the Cardinals in 6 career appearances. When pitching in St. Louis, his ERA is an even worse 11.81. 

This Cardinals offense is tremendous against right handed pitching, and Nelson is just the type of guy that they could blast in a big way. St. Louis should put up quite a few runs in this one. 

Adam Wainwright has been a bit better of late, but he still isn't what he was in the past. 

Barber is the home plate umpire in this one and he ranks in the bottom five in terms of strikes called so far this year, which means he is a very good guy to have behind the dish if you are betting an over. 

The over is 5-0 in Nelson's last 5 starts vs. the Cardinals. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Friday 100% Total PERFECTION* The Pittsburgh Pirates offense is a pretty good one. Pittsburgh is one of the rare National League teams that can go into an American League park and have plenty of hitting depth to be able to get a good designated hitter into the lineup. 

Oakland's offense is much better with Josh Reddick healthy again. Reddick is the key to this lineup. Oakland's offense has been scorching hot of late. The Athletics haven't scored less than 6 runs in any of their last seven games. 

Jeff Locke is on the mound for the Pirates and he is awful, especially on the road. Locke doesn't miss enough bats, and he puts too many guys on base. He's constantly pitching out of trouble. Locke is coming off a couple good starts at home, and I think that has helped keep this total low. It is important to remember that Locke had a 5.63 road ERA last year and his road ERA this year is 7.36. 

Sonny Gray has been somewhat better his last couple starts, but he faces a good Pittsburgh lineup here, and I'm still not sure his issues from earlier in the year are completely behind him. 

The Pirates bullpen is one of the five worst in baseball and the A's bullpen is middle of the road.

The over is 4-0 in the Pirates last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less last game. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0-1 in Locke's last 5 Friday starts. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts with 5 days of rest. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts after the team allowed 2 runs or less last game. The over is 4-0 in the A's last 4 games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 7-0-1 in the A's last 8 games overall. The over is 6-0-1 in their last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more last game. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 interleague games. The over is 5-0 in Gray's last 5 starts following a quality start in his last appearance. A 45-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Detroit Tigers can put up runs in a hurry. Last night was a great example of that. They scored 7 runs in the fifth inning en route to a 7-5 win over Miami. The Tigers have a lot of guys who can beat you, and this is a tough lineup for any pitcher to work through.

Tom Koehler is a guy I like to fade when I can. I expect him to struggle here. His ERA in day games is 4.52 (3.89 at night). His road ERA is 4.49 in his career. This is one of the best offenses he has ever faced, especially since he doesn't get to face a pitcher in this game.

Daniel Norris has a lot of potential, but he has yet to realize it. The Marlins are an underrated offense, and they are especially good against left handed pitching. It would be a surprise if Norris is able to shut this offense down.

Neither bullpen is particularly strong and we have a day game with the wind blowing out here. The umpire in this one is an over umpire as well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* These two teams met in Baltimore last week with the same pitching matchup and the total was 10.5. San Diego is a pitcher's park, but it isn't worth two runs on the line. 

Erik Johnson is about as bad as any starter you'll see in the majors. Johnson has an ERA above 8 and his FIP is above 8 as well. This Orioles lineup has been on fire, and I don't see him slowing them down.

Ubaldo Jimenez has an ERA over 10 in his last three road starts. Jimenez allowed only 2 runs against the Padres last time, but getting a second look at him in this short period should help San Diego. The Padres offense has been good of late.

The over is 4-0 in the Padres last 4 following a loss. The over is 5-0 in the Padres last 5 home games. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less. The over is 7-0-1 in their last 8 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 4-0-2 in their last 6 interleague games vs. a right handed pitcher. The over is 4-0 in Jimenez's last 4 starts when his opponent scores 2 runs or less last game. A 27-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* I like this pitching matchup for the over, and I also like the umpire we drew. Sam Holbrook has been a great long term over umpire. While he has had some unders of late, his strike percentage tells me he is still a good guy to have behind the plate when you have an over bet. 

Tim Lincecum isn't likely to pitch deep into the game, and I don't trust him to be able to get an improving Astros offense out. The Angels bullpen is terrible.

Feldman has always been a fade guy for me, and the Angels offense is hitting well of late.

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Miami Marlins offense has been hitting the ball well. There are several underrated hitters in this lineup, and they have a nice future ahead of them. Miami is likely to put up quite a few runs against Mike Pelfrey in this one. 

Pelfrey isn't a good pitcher at all to start with, and in this one he'll be pitching on 3 days of rest. That's a negative in my book. Pelfrey puts way too many guys on base.

Adam Conley has been up and down this year, and in this one he'll be up against one of the best offenses in baseball. Unlike most teams in the majors, Detroit can stack a lineup with some great right handed bats all together. This should be a tough outing for him.

The over is 5-0 in the Marlins last 5 vs. the AL Central. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games on the road. The over is 4-0 in the Tigers last 4 interleague games vs. a lefty. The over is 5-0 in Pelfrey's last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts when his opponent allows 2 runs or less last game. A 30-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Washington Nationals offense has been good this year against left handed pitching, but they are only mediocre against right handed pitching. Washington will be up against Noah Syndergaard and the Mets in this one. 

Syndergaard has been the second most dominant pitcher in baseball this year. He had a brief scare with his elbow, but everything has sounded good coming from the beat writers for the team. The Nationals have a .216 average against Syndergaard all-time. 

Joe Ross is a solid starter who should fare well against this Mets lineup that is struggling badly. New York has all sorts of injuries and this offense is really struggling to put together big innings of late.

The under is 12-3-1 in Ross' last 16 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 7-2 in the Mets last 9 games. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays played a doubleheader yesterday in the heat. That had to take more out of these teams. That's especially concerning for the Rays, who have gone through nearly everyone on their roster to find someone who can play the outfield with their injury issues. 

Tyler Wilson isn't a very good pitcher, but Tampa Bay hasn't been scoring much against anyone of late. The Rays lineup is a mess, and they are much worse against right handed pitchers than lefties. 

Drew Smyly is a talented lefty, and Baltimore isn't even close to as good against lefties as righties. Baltimore is 23rd in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties at .311. The Orioles are third at .344 against righties.

Smyly also has an amazing track record in Baltimore. In 22 innings pitched, he has a 0.82 ERA.

Adam Hamari is the umpire here, and he is a strike caller. This guy ranks in the top 5 umpires in the majors in strikes called since he arrived in the big leagues. 

The under is 5-0 in the Orioles last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more last game. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 games vs a lefty. The under is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings between these teams. A 15-1 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Atlanta Braves and New York Mets played a rare higher scoring meeting last night, but I think things calm back down to the normal lower scoring games we are accustomed to seeing from them in this contest.

Jacob Degrom started the season slowly, but he has gotten much better in recent outings. Degrom has held Braves batters to a .227 average in his career, and Atlanta's offense is just dreadful this season.

Julio Teheran just threw a complete game one hit shutout against the Mets this past weekend. That isn't necessarily that odd for him against the Mets though. Teheran has held Mets hitters to a ridiculously low .165 batting average in his career. 

I expect both starters to pitch deep into this game and save up the bullpens. 

The under is 4-0 in the Mets last 4 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The under is 5-0 in Degrom's last 5 starts during game 3 of a series. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts overall. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 following a quality start. The under is 4-0 in the Braves last 4 vs. a right handed starter. The under is 4-0 in Teheran's last 4 on 5 days of rest. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts overall. A 29-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* R.A. Dickey has an ERA of 14.59 in three career starts with Angel Hernandez behind home plate. He also has a horrible 9.47 ERA at US Cellular Park. Dickey is also much worse in his career pitching during the day, and this is a day game. 

Miguel Gonzalez isn't a very good pitcher, and this White Sox bullpen has been awful in recent weeks. Toronto's offense is as hot as they have been all year. Things are finally starting to click for them. It's hard to imagine them being silenced by Gonzalez and this bullpen.

Hot weather and a day game in Chicago means the ball should be flying well. Look for a high scoring game. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Minnesota Twins are on an amazing run. The over is 14-1 in their last 15 games. Minnesota's offense underachieved early in the year, and they are starting to hit the ball much better of late. At the same time, the Twins rotation and bullpen continue to struggle. 

Philadelphia starts Adam Morgan in this one and he has a terrible 6.49 ERA on the year. More than 38% of the batted balls off Morgan have been hit hard, and that's one of the worst ratings in the majors. 

Kyle Gibson starts for Minnesota and he has walked almost as many guys as he has struck out this year. That's a major problem. He is susceptible to the big inning. 

The over is 4-0 in the Phillies last 4 Wednesday games. The over is 4-0 in Morgan's last 4 Wednesday starts. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 starts on 4 days of rest. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 overall. The over is 7-0-1 in the Twins last 8 interleague home games. The over is 4-0 in the Twins last 4 interleague games vs. a lefty. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the NL East. A 32-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total Value* The Baltimore Orioles absolutely crush right handed pitching, and Erik Johnson is definitely one of the worst right handed starters in the majors. How bad is he? Johnson has a 7.66 ERA and his FIP is even worse at 8.66. Baltimore should pile up the runs in this one.

Ubaldo Jimenez is on the other side here. Jimenez has an ERA just above 7 on the year. Jimenez is facing a Padres lineup that is surprisingly hot right now. San Diego has scored at least 5 runs in each of their last six games. 

San Diego's bullpen is much worse this year than they have been in the past. The Orioles have a good back end of the bullpen, but the middle relief is very weak. 

Jerry Meals is the umpire here and he is one of the better over umpires in the majors. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Houston Astros host the Los Angeles Angels in the final game of a three game set on Wednesday afternoon. This is a get away day game, and those have been lower scoring over the years on average. Expect some key contributors to get the day off in this game.

Matt Shoemaker has been lights out since making some mechanical changes a few starts ago. In his last 6 starts, Shoemaker has 2 walks and 55 strikeouts. Yes, you read that correctly. He's got things working very well right now, and this Astros offense has a lot of guys who strike out a lot.

Lance McCullers is striking out 11.16 batters per nine innings. McCullers has been tremendous this year, and in his career he has been great at home. McCullers has a 5.06 ERA on the road in his career and a 2.05 ERA at home. He'll be at home in this one. He's backed by a bullpen which is one of the best in baseball. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Noah Syndergaard was slated to start on Tuesday night, but the Mets wanted to rearrange the schedules for their pitchers and moved him to Wednesday afternoon. Syndergaard has been amazing all year and I see no reason he'll be anything other than that here. He is the rare strikeout pitcher who doesn't walk guys. The Mets had to use up the bullpen last night after Colon got hurt early, and I think Syndergaard will pitch deep into this game to save the bullpen.

Danny Duffy has a much better road ERA in his career (3.35) than he has at home (4.13). The under is 10-1 in Duffy's last 11 road starts. The Mets have been terrible this year, and particularly bad of late, against left handed pitching. 

John Hirschbeck is the umpire here and that's a good thing for under bettors with his strike zone. It's hard to see either team scoring many on a get away day afternoon game. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Anthony Desclafani hasn't been sharp in his first couple outings coming off the disabled list. The Reds aren't going to force him any further than they have to either, and this Reds bullpen is just awful. The more this Reds bullpen is in the game the better for this over bet. Texas can put runs on the board in a hurry at home. 

Colby Lewis nearly threw a no hitter last game, and I think he comes back down to earth here. His ERA at home in his career is about 5. While Lewis has an ERA of only 2.81 this year, that is definitely going to change. Lewis is notoriously bad at home when the weather gets warm, and it will be 91 degrees for this one. Lewis has a 2.81 ERA but all advanced metrics have his expected ERA at norht of 4. Some are even higher than 4.5. Regression is coming.

The over is 44-16-3 in Lewis' last 63 home starts. Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA Finals Game 7 Season Closing CA$H* The Cleveland Cavs and Golden State Warriors meet Sunday night with everything on the line. In general in the NBA, the bigger the game is the more likely it is you will see more defense and a slower pace. The games don't come any bigger than this one. This is literally a career defining game for some people involved in this game. 

There also hasn't been a close game yet in the series, but I think that probably changes here. Golden State is banged up and Cleveland has the momentum, but Golden State is a great team and has the home court advantage. If this game is close late, the tempo will slow down drastically. 

In the past 12 years, Game 6 and Game 7 in the NBA playoffs have seen the under hit at a 65% clip. If you go back and look at the last three NBA Finals Game 7 results they show this in a big way also. The last 3 were: Spurs 81 Pistons 74 in 2005, Lakers 83 Celtics 79 in 2010, and Heat 95 Spurs 88 in 2013. 

This posted total is set high for a good reason. Both of these offenses are very good. Still, the long term numbers all tell me to take the under in this one. The public is betting the over at about a 76% clip here, and as of yet the total has not moved up. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Andy Fletcher is one of the best over umpires in the business. Fletcher has consistently had one of the lowest strikes called percentages in the past three seasons. 

Mike Leake isn't missing bats right now, and his peripheral statistics are almost all worse this year than they were last season. The Rangers offense is getting healthy now. 

Martin Perez is definitely due for some regression. Advanced metrics suggest his ERA should be closer to 5. The Cardinals lineup is a tough one to navigate through.

Neither of these bullpens are great, and the weather is very favorable here. The forecast calls for 91 degrees and wind of about 10 mph out to center. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* Tom Koehler isn't a very good pitcher. He is even worse in day starts. In his career, Koehler has a 3.86 night ERA and a 4.66 day ERA. The Marlins starter goes up against a pretty good Rockies lineup in this one. 

Tyler Anderson may have decent stuff, but I don't expect things to come easy for him right away. Anderson faced a weak Padres lineup in his first big league start. Miami has a good lineup against lefties and they should get some runs here. 

Scott Barry is a good umpire to have for over bettors as well. A total of only 8 makes the over the value side here. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Bill Miller is the home plate umpire here, and he is one of the best under umpires in the business. While he has gone on an over run of late this year, his strikes called have still been very high. Every single year for the last few seasons, he has ranked in the top 10 umpires in the league in strikes called. He also ranks very high on the list in strikeouts/walk ratio. Bottom line: if you have an umpire who is calling far more strikes than the league average and is punching people out- that's a good under umpire.

There is a real concern in this game, and it is James Shields. To say he has been awful in his last 3 starts is putting it mildly. Still, he gets the best umpire possible here, and Cleveland is a pitcher-friendly park. 

The oddsmakers know Miller is an under umpire, and this total of 9 is the highest total on a Bill Miller umpired game all season. It is rare to see 9's in Cleveland in general, and with Bill Miller as the umpire and Danny Salazar on the mound for the Indians, I have to take this bet on principle. 

Salazar is tremendous, and this White Sox lineup isn't very good. Salazar has swing and miss stuff and he'll get the corners with this umpire as well.

The under is 27-11-2 in the last 40 meetings between these two teams. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* Julio Urias has a very bright future ahead of him. In his last two starts, he has begun to show just how good he could be for the Dodgers. He gets to pitch in the pitcher-friendly Dodger stadium again here, and Milwaukee's offense is just mediocre on the road. 

Zach Davies has been very good in recent outings. Davies has been controlling all of his pitches better, and he does against a Dodgers lineup that has really struggled to score runs at home this year. 

Everitt is the umpire here, and he is a solid under umpire. The under is 27-9 in the Dodgers last 36 games after scoring 5 runs or more last game. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Boston Red Sox scored one run last night. Boston has the best offense in baseball, and it's very unlikely they will be quieted two nights in a row. Iwakuma's stuff isn't quite as good as it was in the past. He has struggled in the past against the Red Sox, and I don't see that changing here. 

Roenis Elias starts for the Red Sox here. He was a subpar pitcher for the Mariners, and now he pitches in a much worse park for pitchers and has to face his former team. This Seattle lineup has been much better in recent weeks, and they should put up plenty here. 

Take the over. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Total of the Week* The Chicago White Sox send Jose Quintana to the mound. To say he gets almost no run support in general is an understatement. Quintana has been the hard luck loser all kinds of times in the past couple years with this White Sox team. 

Quintana has been amazing when pitching in Cleveland in his career. He has a brilliant 0.93 ERA in 38 and 2/3 innings in Cleveland. In 15 IP last year in Cleveland, he didn't allow a single earned run. Quintana has been very consistent, and this is a good park for pitchers on the whole.

Trevor Bauer has always had the stuff to be a good big league starter, but he hasn't put it together until recently. Bauer's last few starts have been his best run of consistency in a very long time. Bauer has pitched well against Chicago in the last two years. Bauer faces a White Sox lineup that is subpar, especially away from home. I think he can continue his recent solid pitching. 

The wind is expected to be blowing in at 10-15 mph for this game which is a nice bonus.

The under is 8-0 in Quintana's last 8 starts when the White Sox opponent allows 5 runs or more in their last game. The under is 9-0 in his last 9 following a quality start. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 during game one of a series. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 road starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 starts vs. the AL Central. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 starts vs. Cleveland. A 43-0 angle. Take the under big! TOP Total of the Week 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Toronto Blue Jays bats are clearly warming up of late. They blasted Aaron Nola last night, and Toronto is really getting much better production out of the bottom of the order. 

Mike Wright isn't a very good pitcher, and he has a miserable 7.13 ERA in his career against Toronto. I don't have any confidence in him being able to cool them off in this one.

Aaron Sanchez has pitched well this year, but this is a difficult matchup for him. Baltimore's lineup is really good against right handed pitching.

It should be noted as well that both Wright and Sanchez just pitched against their opponent last weekend, and those quick turnarounds generally benefit the hitters more than the pitchers.

The over is 6-0-1 in the Blue Jays last 7 road games vs. a right handed starter. The over is 4-0-1 in Wright's last 5 Friday starts. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 starts when Baltimore's opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. The over is 7-0 in Wright's last 7 starts when the Orioles opponent scored 5 runs or more in their last game. A 22-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Philadelphia Phillies rank second to last in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitchers. J.A. Happ isn't a great pitcher, but he's a guy who should be able to have success against a lineup like this one. Happ has pitched in Philadelphia in the past and that's probably a positive for him here. 

Toronto loses the DH and the pitcher spot batting here is certainly very good for the under. Aaron Nola has electric stuff and I'm very high on him. Nola had a poor outing last game, and I think he can come back and throw the ball well in this one. The Blue Jays offense has disappointed all year, and they are worse against right handers than lefties. 

Tony Randazzo is an under umpire and he should help both pitchers in this one.

The under is 4-0 in the Blue Jays last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 6-0 in Happ's last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 9-1 in Happ's last 10 starts vs. a team with a losing record. A 19-1 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Seattle Mariners and Tampa Bay Rays both have good left handed pitchers starting in this one. James Paxton has 4 walks and 24 strikeouts this year. He has pitched into some bad luck, and this is a guy who I think has a high upside. Paxton has shown the ability to shut teams down in the past, and I expect a good outing.

Blake Snell was averaging 12.86 strikeouts per nine innings in Triple A so far this year. Snell has a tremendous upside, and he looked good in his one start thus far. 

Ron Kulpa is the umpire in this one, and there isn't a single umpire in the majors with a bigger edge to the under than Kulpa in the past five years. It being a get away day game makes me like this one even more since the lineups are likely to look a little less strong than normal. Evan Longoria left last night's game with an injury and is questionable for this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Minnesota Twins and Los Angeles Angels have been smashing the cover off the ball so far in this series. I expect it to continue on Wednesday night. 

Both of these offenses struggled early in the year, but both of them rank in the top half of the league in weighted on base average in the past two weeks. The Twins offense is way better than they showed early in the year, and the Angels are getting better production from some of their role players of late.

Tyler Duffey is way too inconsistent for me. The Twins bullpen behind him isn't very good either. The Angels start Hector Santiago here, and he has been terrible of late. His lack of control is a major problem, and home plate umpire Tim Timmons will make that a bigger issue. Timmons has a small strike zone and will pinch the zone for both of these guys. The Angels bullpen has been one of the five worst in the majors in the past month.

The over is 4-0 in the Twins last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 games against lefties. The over is 4-0-1 in Duffey's last 5 starts. The over is 4-0-1 in his last 5 starts following a team loss. The over is 3-0-1 in his last 4 starts on 4 days of rest. The over is 5-0-1 in the Angels last 6 games vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The over is 5-0 in Santiago's last 5 starts. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts on 4 days of rest. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 home starts.  A 42-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* The Detroit Tigers are one of the rare teams who have been able to hit Chris Sale well. The Tigers hitters have a very solid .346 OBP against Sale. Detroit can stack up the right handed bats and make things tough on Sale. The White Sox bullpen has been imploding of late, and I have no faith in their ability to hold a late lead if they have it here.

Mike Pelfrey just isn't any good. Pelfrey's advanced metrics suggest his ERA should be quite a bit higher than it actually is so far this season. The White Sox hitters have a great .367 OBP against Pelfrey all time. He just puts way too many guys on base, and is constantly pitching out of the stretch. The Tigers bullpen has struggled in this series, and that is important here too.

The over is 4-0 in Sale's last 4 starts. The over is 6-0 in his last 6 starts vs. the AL Central. The over is 5-0 in Sale's last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 4-1-1 in Sale's last 6 starts vs. Detroit. A 19-1 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The San Diego Padres average 3.39 runs per game against right handed pitching. They average 5.68 runs per game against left handed pitching. They'll be facing a weak lefty in Justin Nicolino on Wednesday afternoon. Nicolino is one of the worst left handed pitchers in baseball, and I like San Diego's chances of putting up several runs.

Luis Perdomo starts for the Padres, and he had never pitched in Double A or Triple A before this year. He was jumped up to the majors because the Padres are severely short on arms. He can't pitch deep into the game, and the Padres bullpen is very weak. The Miami offense has been underrated all year.

Cory Blaser gives us a decent over umpire for this game as well. I think we'll see a higher scoring game in San Diego on Wednesday afternoon. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* Chase Field is a tremendous park for hitters when the roof is open with very hot temperatures. That should be the case on Tuesday night. The DBacks website lists the roof status as open and the projected temperature at gametime of 98 degrees. That means the ball will fly very well in this one.

Kenta Maeda is a good pitcher, but I suspect he isn't quite as good as his numbers so far this year indicate. He has had good luck with keeping the ball in the park, and that will be tougher in this situation.

Archie Bradley is way too inconsistent for my liking, and he walks a bunch of guys. Bradley has been an over machine in his short career.

The over is 4-0 in Bradley's last 4 starts during game 2 of a series. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 when the DBacks opponent scores 2 runs or less last game. The over is 4-0-1 in his last 5 home starts. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 starts vs. the NL West. An 18-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Tuesday's BEST Bet* Taking an under at Coors Field is never a lot of fun, but there is way too much value to pass up here. The Yankees rank 26th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching this year. Jorge De La Rosa actually has a nice history pitching at Coors Field. He does a nice job adapting to the Coors Field conditions.

Nathan Eovaldi has 3 starts at Coors Field and his ERA in those starts is a sparkling 1.47. Eovaldi has electric stuff, and this Rockies team has actually been a little quieter on offense in recent days. 

The Rockies highest scoring games at home have typically come during day games. This one is a night game where the temperature will be falling through the upper 70's during the game. That isn't bad conditions for hitters, but it is far from the best possible. 

This game is lined like these are two awful pitchers and elite offenses. I don't think that is the case. Factor in the Yankees amazing bullpen, and I have to take the under in this one. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Tampa Bay Rays start Jake Odorizzi in this one. Odorizzi has been great at home throughout his career. Odorizzi has a 2.88 ERA at home in his career. His ERA is 2.52 at home this year. 

Taijuan Walker is definitely capable of breaking out and having a great season. He has all the tools necessary. Walker had one of his best starts of his career last time out against Cleveland. Look for him to keep building on that start here.

Seattle's offense has been streaky, and they have been much worse of late. Tampa Bay was red hot for a while, but they have since cooled off. 

The under is 43-14-2 in the last 59 meetings between these two teams in Tampa Bay. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Philadelphia Phillies ranks in the bottom five in the majors in both the last 14 days and the last 7 days in terms of production. This Phillies offense is coming off a nice performance against R.A. Dickey last night, but Marcus Stroman should prove a tougher challenge for them.

Stroman has been at his best at home during the day in his career, and he should induce a lot of swinging strikes against this lineup. 

Zach Elfin showed tremendous control in the minors and he has some solid stuff. Toronto's offense has been a disappointment this year.

With this being a get away day, some key players could get the day off here.

Bill Miller is the umpire here and he is my single favorite under umpire. He is a strike calling machine. If this one goes over, it won't be because of Miller.

The under is 6-0-1 in the Phillies last 7 Tuesday games. The under is 8-0 in the Jays last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0-1 in the Jays last 5 games following a loss. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 interleague games vs. a right handed starter. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 interleague home games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record. A 31-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Game 5 CASH* Game 4 was played to by far the slowest pace of the series thus far. The Cavs are likely going to try to make this game very physical, and typically in elimination games the tempo slows down a touch.

This posted total has dropped despite the public backing the over at 68% clip. Draymond Green's suspension has something to do with that for sure, but I believe this also means there is some sharp money on the under in this one.

Without Green, the Warriors lose a key facilitator of their offense. I think this game likely has less rhythm and is a little sloppier than most of the games in the series thus far. Take the under here. 

*4 Star MLB Sunday Night Baseball CASH* The San Francisco Giants start Jake Peavy in this one and the Los Angeles Dodgers start rookie phenom Julio Urias.

Urias got off to a rocky start, but he was much better last game, and his stuff is tremendous. The Giants are short-handed on offense right now, and this is a tremendous pitchers park. 

Peavy has been very good against the Dodgers in his career, and the Dodgers offense ranks in the bottom five in the majors in the past 14 days in wOBA. The Giants don't rank much higher at 23rd.

This is a national television game and I expect a heated battle here. Look for runs to be difficult to come by. 

Mike Muchlinski is behind the plate here and the under is 26-9-1 in his last 35 Sunday games. He is noted for having a bigger strike zone than a normal umpire. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Mark Ripperger is one of the top five under umpires in baseball. This is a guy who is calling a ton of strikes and taking pressure off the pitchers. The under is 35-17 in his last 52 games behind the dish.

Danny Salazar is taking the next step and is close to becoming an elite pitcher right now. The Indians offense has been good at home, but they have struggled on the road.On the other side, the Angels have been bad offensively at home. 

Huff isn't a pitcher I like very much, but this umpire draw helps him and he'll try to work the corners here. 

This is a very high total for a game in LA, especially with a pitcher as good as Salazar involved. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Pittsburgh Pirates start Francisco Liriano in this one. Liriano has good career numbers vs. the Cardinals, but I still have to doubt his ability to shut them down here. St. Louis has one of the best offenses in baseball this year, and Liriano has been having severe command problems of late. 

Even if Liriano does pitch well here, he very rarely pitches deep into the game, and the Pirates bullpen ranks as one of the worst five bullpens in the majors.

Carlos Martinez has a 5.30 ERA at PNC Park in his career. This Pirates offense is far better than most people realize. Pittsburgh should get their chances in this one. 

The warm weather here is a help as well. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Saturday's BEST Bet* This posted total is set very high, but it's not high enough to keep me off the over. Coors Field is always a good park for hitters, but day games when the weather is like it is set to be on Saturday are on a different level. The temperature is scheduled to be 92 degrees with wind out at 15 mph. That makes this place a launching pad. 

Erik Johnson has been a bad major league starter no matter where he has been, and now San Diego has given him his first start with the team and set it for this game against Colorado at Coors Field. Tough spot! The Rockies should be slug out a bunch of runs here. The Padres bullpen isn't good either, so that is an additional bonus.

Tyler Chatwood hasn't allowed a home run all year on the road, but he has allowed a home run on 23.1 percent of his fly balls at Coors Field this year. Chatwood has terrible home splits, and the Padres have hit the ball very well at Coors Field this year.

Paul Emmel is one of the best over umpires in the game and he's behind the plate for this game. 

The over is 5-0-1 in the Padres last 6 road games. The over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a righty. The over is 4-0-1 in the Rockies last 5 home games vs a righty. The over is 6-1-1 in the Rockies last 8 games. A 19-1 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Aaron Nola is a really good young pitcher. Nola has a tremendous curveball and a great sinker. Few pitchers can fool people as bad as Nola does on a consistent basis. Nola has pitched 12 innings in Washington in his career and has yet to allow a run. Nola had a 1.58 ERA on the road so far this year.

Tanner Roark had some bad starts against Philadelphia last year, but he has dominated them this year. Roark has thrown 14 innings and allowed only 2 runs against them.

The Phillies lineup isn't very good, and while Washington is great against lefties they have struggled against right handed pitching this year.

Both pitchers are much better during day games than at night. This is a very early start time. The under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Red Hot CASH* The Miami Marlins and Arizona Diamondbacks offenses are both much better against left handed pitching. Justin Nicolino is one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball according to many of the statistics I look at. Nicolino doesn't strike anyone out, and his control isn't very good. The Diamondbacks rank in the top three in the majors in almost all categories when it comes to offensive production vs. lefties.

The Marlins lineup is designed well to hit lefties. Patrick Corbin has been very inconsistent this year, and he seems to not fully have his confidence back. 

Both of these bullpens are subpar right now as well.

The Chase Field Roof is slated to be open as of now. I worry that the roof could be closed due to the heat, so I will keep this as a 3 star play instead of 4. Regardless, I believe this play has real value.

The over is 5-0 in the Marlins last 5 road games. The over is 7-1 in the DBacks last 8 home games. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Friday's BEST Bet* The Detroit Tigers are absolutely pummeling left handed pitching of late. They started the season curiously slow against lefties, but they are making up for it lately. Detroit put up 11 runs vs. J.A. Happ. They scored 7 runs vs. Chris Sale. They scored 10 runs against Carlos Rodon. Those were all in the past week.

C.C. Sabathia has pitched well this year, but he is a major candidate for regression and this Detroit offense is extremely good. While the back of the Yankee bullpen is great, if Sabathia gets pulled early the middle of the Yankees pen isn't all that great.

Mike Pelfrey is just a really bad pitcher. Pelfrey is constantly pitching from the stretch and trying to work out of a jam. The Yankees lineup underachieved for a long time, but they are hitting the ball right now. I don't see any reason to expect that to stop tonight.

I expect plenty of fireworks in this one. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB RED Hot CASH* The Pittsburgh Pirates and Colorado Rockies play an afternoon game at Coors Field on Thursday. The temperature for this one is expected to be 90 degrees and that's important. Year after year we have seen that with very hot weather Coors Field is the ultimate hitter's park. That is even more the case when it is a day game, where the ball flies much better than it does at night in Colorado.

Jeff Locke is coming off some nice starts of late, but he's not a good pitcher on the road. Despite his good start in Colorado earlier this year, I feel comfortable assuming that Colorado will get to him here. Locke is a much worse pitcher on the road overall, and his advanced statistics suggest he is due for regression.

Locke has a 4.28 ERA but his FIP is 5.13 and his SIERA is 5.23. Colorado ranks first in the majors in weighted on base average in their home games.

Pittsburgh ranks 7th in wOBA on the road this year. The Pirates are getting healthy again, and I really like this Pittsburgh lineup when healthy. Chad Bettis has a career 6.34 ERA when pitching at Coors Field.

The over is 20-7-4 in Locke's last 31 road starts. The over is 5-1 in the Rockies last 6 home games. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* Chris Rusin has solid numbers and peripherals this year. The Los Angeles Dodgers offense has been disappointing this year. Colorado's bullpen is much better than they were a year ago. 

Maeda is a solid pitcher who has great deception. The Rockies offense isn't what it has been in recent years. 

Adam Hamari is the umpire here and he ranks in the top 5% of umpires in the majors in terms of strikes called percentages. This is a very good under umpire. He'll give both pitchers the corners.

The marine layer in California is thicker at this time than at any other time during the year. 

The under is 10-4 in the Dodgers last 14 vs. a lefty. The under is 5-2 in Rusin's last 7 starts. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* These are two teams who have been hitting the ball pretty well of late, but Seattle is much better offensively on the road and Cleveland is much better offensively at home.

Cleveland ranks 27th in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) on the road. The Indians rank 4th in wOBA at home. Seattle ranks 13th at home and 5th on the road. 

Taijuan Walker has been struggling with his command of late, but Mike Muchlinski being behind the dish is a big positive for him. Muchlinski is a big under umpire who will give him the corners.

Carlos Carrasco has been amazing on the road in the past three seasons. He has an ERA under 3 on the road in three straight seasons. 

Both of these bullpens are solid as well, and this is definitely a pitcher's park. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Drew Pomeranz is very underrated as a starting pitcher and this Atlanta Braves offense is awful. Atlanta is bad on offense against everyone, but they are even worse against left handed starters.

Julio Teheran has good numbers this year and all year the Braves have given him very little run support. 

The umpire here is Angel Hernandez and he ranks in the top 25% of umpires in the majors when it comes to strikes called percentages. 

The marine layer is particularly thick in California this time of the year, which makes it tougher for the ball to fly. 

All these factors equal an under play for me. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Red HOT Cash* Ubaldo Jimenez and Yordano Ventura are both having some major issues right now. Jimenez has a 10.22 ERA in his last 3 starts. He has allowed 28 runs in his last 5 starts. Jimenez isn't a guy that can be trusted right now. He has an ERA 6.59 on the year, and he has been consistently terrible of late.

Yordano Ventura has been a big disappointment this year. Ventura had a 4.82 ERA and all the advanced metrics suggest he is actually getting lucky. Ventura should have an ERA even worse than that with the way he has pitched thus far. 

Both Jimenez and Ventura are averaging more than 5 walks per nine innings pitched. That's just ridiculous and it is one of the biggest reasons for this bet. Anytime a big league pitcher is putting that many guys on base for free, there are going to be a lot of scoring opportunities.

Manny Gonzalez is an over umpire and that gives us an added boost for this play.

The over is 7-0 in the Royals last 7 Tuesday games. The over is 5-0-1 in the Orioles last 6 home games vs. a right handed starter. The over is 7-0-1 in their last 8 vs. a right handed starter overall. The over is 5-0 in Jimenez's last 5 starts. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. A 30-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Red Hot CASH* The New York Mets take on the Miami Marlins in what I expect will be a pitcher's duel on Sunday afternoon. 

The Miami Marlins offense is scuffling of late. While Christian Yelich and Giancarlo Stanton are back in the lineup, they aren't back in a rhythm and likely aren't 100 percent healthy yet. Matt Harvey pitched great in his last outing after a string of bad starts. Harvey has some terrible batted ball luck this year, and I expect him to improve over the course of the season.

Jose Fernandez is the real, and at home he has been nearly unhittable in his career. Fernandez is 22-1 with a 1.59 ERA in his career at home. The Mets offense is very short handed now without Wright, Davis, and Cespedes was scratched on Saturday is questionable here.

The Marlins starting lineup has a .168 career average against Harvey. Fernandez owns a 1.67 ERA in 5 starts vs. the Mets. 

The under is 5-0 in Fernandez's last 5 home starts. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Seattle Mariners have the best weighted on base average of any team in baseball in the past two weeks. This offense is on an absolute roll right now. The Mariners have scored 50 runs in their last 5 games.

Texas is one of the best parks in the majors for hitters. Martin Perez has a nice 3.12 ERA but look at his advanced metrics and you'll see he's due for regression. Perez has a 4.40 FIP and a 4.60 XFIP. He's been stranding runners at a very high rate so far this year, but that can't continue for the whole season.

Seattle starts Nate Karns and he's had a nice season so far. A closer look at who Karns has pitched against shows you that he hasn't faced many of the top lineups in the majors. This is a tough spot for him against a Rangers lineup that gets Rougned Odor back for this game.

The over is 10-0 in the Mariners last 10 games. The over is 8-0 in their last 8 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The over is 7-0 in their last 7 following a loss. The over is 4-0 in Karns' last 4 starts. The over is 4-0 in the Rangers last 4. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a right handed starter. The over is 6-0-1 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road win percentage of 60% or higher. A 43-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Atlanta Braves have the worst offense in the majors. They have been the worst for the year overall and they have been the worst overall in the past two weeks. 

Los Angeles' offense has been a big disappointment. The Dodgers have struggled badly to score at home, and they rank 26th in offensive production in the past two weeks. 

Julio Teheran has thrown the ball well this year. Teheran has bumped up his strikeout rate and lowered his walk rate this year. He isn't a guy who allows many home runs on average. 

Kenta Maeda has been very good the Dodgers, and the Braves haven't seen him yet. He has a deceptive delivery that should be very hard on hitters the first time they see him.

The under is 6-1 in the Dodgers last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Washington Nationals are a much better offense against left handed pitching. Cincinnati starts lefty Brandon Finnegan here. Finnegan has given up 7 home runs at home already this year, with warm weather in Cincinnati now the ball is flying very well. 

Gio Gonzalez has been victimized by the home run ball of late, and the Reds do have some home run hitters. Like the Nationals, the Reds are much better against left handed pitching. Gonzalez doesn't have his best form right now, and Cincinnati should get scoring chances.

The Reds bullpen is the worst in the league by a huge margin, and anytime you have a number of only 8.5 at Great American with pitchers who aren't elite, I feel like the value is with the over.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Friday Fast Cash* The Detroit Tigers offense has been on fire in the past couple weeks. This is a lineup that underachieved early in the year, but they have hit their stride of late. Detroit is going to continue to score runs in bunches quite often this year, because they really do have a bunch of great hitters in this lineup. 

Jordan Zimmermann is coming off an injury and is likely to be limited in this one for Detroit. The Tigers bullpen isn't a good one, and extended work for them is good for the over. 

Carlos Rodon puts too many guys on base, and I believe the Tigers can make him pay. After a great start, the White Sox bullpen has been terrible in recent weeks.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The home plate umpire is Ron Kulpa for this one, and he has the single best under record of any umpire in baseball over the past five years. He is a strike calling machine. 

Dallas Keuchel has struggled with finding the zone this year, but Kulpa should help him a lot. Keuchel has always been much better at home than on the road as well.

Zack Greinke has struggled in Arizona this year, but on the road he has been good. 

Both of these pitchers are better than they have pitched so far this year. Their early season struggles have given us a little bit higher total than we should see here. 

It's get away day for these teams and that could mean some key players get a day off. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Cincinnati Reds and Colorado Rockies scored 19 runs in the first game of the series on Monday. They scored 21 on Tuesday (Colorado scored 17 of them). I think they'll score a bunch again here.

John Lamb has gotten worse from last year to this season. There have been many rumors of Lamb battling injuries this year, but Cincinnati doesn't have any starting pitching depth now and he's still starting games for the team. Lamb has an ERA of 15.26 in two road starts this year. Now, he's headed to Coors Field. Ouch. If he gets hit around early, then the Reds bullpen is in for a long time. This bullpen is historically bad, and Colorado should pile on the runs against them.

Cincinnati's bats have been much better in the past week, and they should get plenty of scoring chances here too. Tyler Chatwood struggles at Coors Field, and this bullpen ranks 7th worst in the majors in ERA. 

The over is 4-0-1 in the Reds last 5 games. The over is 7-0-1 in their last 8 road games vs. a right handed starter. The over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 5-0 in the Rockies last 5 after their opponent allows 5 runs or more last game. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 home games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series. A 28-0 angle. Take the over.