*4 Star Play Over* Xavier is 26th in average possession length so far this year. The Musketeers are pushing the pace in a big way. SE Louisiana is 55th in overall tempo as well. This one should be a track meet in terms of tempo.

Xavier has scored 84 points or more in 4 of their 7 games. They have only scored less than 78 points once (neutral site game against Duke). Xavier is going to put up a big number against an SE Louisiana team that has a bottom 30 or 40 defense in the country every single year.

SE Louisiana has shot the 3 ball pretty well the last few years and they get to the free throw line pretty often as well. In a game with this tempo I think they can score enough.

This one is several points too low.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Prairie View A&M Panthers have played a relatively tough slate of defenses this year. This team is more efficient on the offensive end than almost any other SWAC team on a yearly basis. They have had a lot of non-conference overs through the years because of this as well. 

Rice is 54th in the country in effective field goal percentage offense. Rice is also dead last at #363 in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. The Owls are a really good over team because of these stats combined with their tempo, which is clearly above average. Three of their five games against Division One opponents have gone to 159 points or higher total.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers are 27th in the NBA in tempo. The Cleveland Cavs are 29th in the NBA in tempo. This should be one of the slower paced games you'll see in the NBA regular season. 

Cleveland is first in defensive efficiency in the league when playing at home. The Cavs are 4th in defensive efficiency overall and the 76ers are third. A contest between two teams who work hard on the defensive end. 

The referee crew here is a big positive for the under. Two of the best under refs in the NBA are in this game tonight. Both Davis and Twardowski are nearly 54% to the under in their careers.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wisconsin Badgers have played six games and five of those contests have been at 126 total points or fewer after regulation. Wisconsin is back to slowing things down more this year. Why? They have far less offense without Johnny Davis. They are a top 12 team on defenses in multiple major categories, and I expect them to continue to be excellent on the defensive end.

Wake Forest hasn't played a team this year who has ranked in the top 100 in effective field goal percentage defense. I think the Badgers defense will give them a lot of trouble in this one. The Demon Deacons prefer to play pretty quickly, but Wisconsin is great at controlling the pace.

Both teams are good on the defensive glass, so I wouldn't expect many second chance points.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UMKC Roos are favored by 5 points here. UMKC has scored 63 points or fewer in seven of their nine games on the season. This team is 356th (out of 363) in the country in effective field goal percentage offense. UMKC is 341st in average possession length, so they are really slowing down the tempo a lot.

Idaho State has been a bottom 40 team in tempo in the country each of the last two seasons. They take a lot of three point jumpers, but they aren't good at getting open looks from long range. They have played a much tougher slate of offenses than defenses so far this year and still their games have been lower scoring. 

I see a low scoring contest here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Diego Toreros are a completely different team with Steve Lavin as their head coach this year. San Diego was 224th in average length of possession last year. They are 128th in that same stat so far this year. Lavin wants his team to push the pace this year. 

San Diego picked up Eric Williams from Oregon and he is the key go to guy for this offense. Their efficiency will jump this year on offense compared to a year ago.

Longwood has been a very good 3 point shooting team the last couple years. San Diego is allowing opponents to shoot 43.4% from 3 point range on the season thus far. The Lancers should get plenty of open looks here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Virginia Tech Hokies are 333rd in the nation in overall tempo. The Minnesota Golden Gophers are 356th in overall tempo. These are two teams who want to play the game in the halfcourt. 

These two teams rank 2nd and 3rd out of 363 teams in the country at defending without fouling. That is something I like to look for when taking a low under. 

Virginia Tech is a good offensive team, but I expect them to regress a bit as the season goes along. They have played a very weak slate of defenses thus far. 

Minnesota doesn't have many options on offense. This is a team that relies too much on a couple guys (Battle and Garcia).

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Bryce Perkins gets the start here for the LA Rams. Perkins is the third string quarterback for the Rams and he is in a really tough spot here. Without Cooper Kupp on the outside, Perkins isn't exactly surrounded by great weapons. The Rams will want to run the football here, but the Chiefs have quietly been solid against the run this year.

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs could probably score quite a few points here, but I'm not sure they will keep their foot on the gas here. Andy Reid's teams have historically constantly been quick to let up and run the clock when they are a big favorite. They are more than a 2 TD favorite here. Kansas City will run the ball more than normal here too. That helps the Rams who do have a top ten run defense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* I think Jimmy G is an underrated quarterback on the whole, and he is surrounded by some of the best weapons in the NFL. When you have guys like Samuel, Kittle, Aiyuk, and McCaffrey around you it is going to be a lot of fun. The Saints defense has had a couple good games, but overall they have been a big disappointment. The Saints aren't the same without Lattimore in the secondary either. They'll miss him badly in this one. 

The Saints have been moving the ball well, and the Saints are more than capable of pick 6's with Dalton at quarterback against a defense that takes chances. At the same time, the Saints receivers are good and I think they can create some big plays here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Chargers offense has been badly shorthanded most of the year. Justin Herbert now has his weapons back at wide receiver and that should make this passing attack be much better the rest of the way. Herbert is still a really good quarterback, and the Chargers play at a quick pace. They are up against a very weak Cardinals secondary. I expect the Chargers to get a lot of big plays here. The Cardinals defense didn't look interested late against the 49ers in their most recent game.

Kyler Murray comes back for the Cardinals here, and that is a clear help to the over. With DeAndre Hopkins this Cardinals offense and Murray this offense has big play potential. The Chargers are allowing nearly 26 points per game.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Place Bell Arena is a hockey arena in Quebec, Canada. This site has hosted several basketball games the last few days. A close inspection of these games has showed that shooting numbers have been way down across the board at this arena. The shooters are struggling with the unique backgrounds. 

I think this is just too high of a number at this arena. These two teams do play fairly quickly, but neither of them are lights out shooting teams to begin with. 

These are both teams who have a history of defending without fouling. Avoiding sending their opposition to the line is a big plus.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* Purdue ranks 333rd in overall tempo this year. Duke is 316th (much slower than last year). 

Duke's defense has been fantastic this year. Kyle Filipowski is a 7 footer who clogs up the lane and changes things in a big way on the defensive end for Duke. Mark Mitchell's athleticism and length make him a major factor on defense too. I think the Blue Devils are far better on defense than most people realize.

Purdue's Zach Edey is obviously a force on both ends, but he'll be defended by much more athletic and long players than he is accustomed to seeing. Purdue allowed just 66 against a fast paced Gonzaga team, and the Boilers were able to control the pace in that game (just 68 possessions).

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Place Bell Arena is a hockey arena in Quebec, Canada. This site has hosted several basketball games the last few days. A close inspection of these games has showed that shooting numbers have been way down across the board at this arena. The shooters are struggling with the unique backgrounds. 

In this one, MTSU is an excellent defensive team who can create a bunch of turnovers and lead to wasted trips for the opposition. Montana State is 282nd in overall tempo and the Bobcats rely so much on their star Belo that it can hurt them a lot against quality defenses. Montana State has gotten 0.93 and 0.77 points per possession in their first two games at this arena. MTSU is the best defense they have played yet at this arena.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Campbell Fighting Camels (what a great nickname) rank 339th in average possession length. Stetson ranks 346th in that same statistic. Both of these two teams are looking to slow the pace down at all times. I see no reason to expect this to be anything other than a game played in the halfcourt all the way.

Last year these two teams met and the game finished 60-58 (118 total points). It wasn't a fluke either. It was just a very slow paced game and the two teams shot close to their season averages in that contest.

This one should be low as well. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The TCU Horned Frogs are trying to keep their dream season going. TCU has been winning a bunch of close games of late. While their records wouldn't indicate this would be particularly close, Iowa State has an excellent defense.

Iowa State is the best defense in the Big 12. The Cyclones are 12th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Iowa State has played seven straight games that have finished at 45 points total or fewer. Four of those seven games have finished at 34 points total or fewer.

TCU's defense has improved a lot, and this is a well coached unit. Iowa State has the best defense in the Big 12 and the worst offense in the Big 12. Iowa State is 121st in the nation in ypc on the year. 

If TCU does get a decent lead here there isn't much incentive for them to run up the score. They'll have a very tough game next week in the Big 12 title game.

There is 14 mph winds in the forecast here and a slight chance of rain during the game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oregon State Beavers rank 126th in tempo in the country. They are running the football on nearly 62% of their offensive plays in Pac 12 contests. Oregon State has been far less explosive on offense with Gulbranson at quarterback, but he also doesn't make the big mistakes that Nolan was making. That has made this Oregon State team more of an under team than they were earlier in the year.

Oregon's Bo Nix is banged up with an ankle injury. He only attempted one run last week against Utah. The Utes defense did a great job slowing down Oregon in that game. Oregon State's defense has been much better than Utah's on the whole this season. The Beavers are #1 in the Pac 12 in total defense. 

Though both offenses are solid, they are 97th and 115th in explosiveness on offense. Even the scoring drives should take some time here, and I think both defenses can get some holds in the red zone. 

Take the under in this rivalry game. 

*3 Star Play Under* Troy has the best defense in the Sun Belt. The Trojans excel in not giving up big plays which I think is really key to a lower under. Troy is 10th in yards per play allowed on the season and they are 12th in preventing explosive plays. 

Arkansas State's offense is far less potent than it has been in recent years. The Red Wolves have also drastically slowed down their pace of play. Arkansas State is 79th out of 131 in tempo this year. Troy is even slower at 101st.

The weather here should be a factor too. The forecast calls for 90 percent chance of rain and winds of about 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. 

Both defenses are much better than the offenses in the run game. Expect more running than normal here thanks to the weather.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Marshall Thundering Herd have seen no more than 49 total points scored in their last eight games. In 7 of their last 8, the combined total in the game has finished at 37 points or less. Their game that hit 49 points had two special teams touchdowns.

Marshall is fantastic on the defensive side of the ball. The Thundering Herd rank second in the nation in success rate allowed. They are sixth in yards per play allowed. Georgia State runs the ball on 67% of their offensive plays. Marshall is allowing only 2.96 ypc on the season. Georgia State hasn't shown the ability to throw the ball around very often at all this year.

Marshall's offense is very weak. Cam Fancher is a below average quarterback who doesn't take many shots down the field. The Thundering Herd will try to lean on their running game as well. Marshall ranks 130th out of 131 teams in the nation in offensive explosiveness. They'll run the ball a lot and their drives will take quite a bit of time. While Georgia State isn't great on defense, they do get in the backfield a lot. They are 42nd in defensive havoc caused by the front seven. Marshall's offensive line is 126th in the country in havoc allowed. Marshall should get behind the sticks quite a bit too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This game will be played in Copper Box Arena in London, England. The first two games played at this arena both went far under the total in regulation. Princeton's game went 9.5 points under the total. Northeastern's game was 20.5 points under the total in regulation before edging over the total by 1.5 points with overtime. This is a unique arena where I believe the shooting sight lines could be affected.

Princeton is 234th in average possession length. The Tigers have played a very easy schedule of defenses so far this year. Princeton is likely to be challenged a bit more by the length of the Northeastern defense. 

The Northeastern Huskies are 294th in average possession length so far this year. This team has played very slowly for many years in a row now. 

Both of these teams do a good job defending without fouling and second chance points should be hard to come by here as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Hawaii Warriors are using 1.3 seconds more of the shot clock on average in every single possession so far this year. A drastic slowdown from this team. They aren't shooting the ball well, but the question mark about this team coming into the season was if they could consistently shoot the ball well enough or not.

Sacramento State has showed that they clearly want to play at a slower pace. They have gotten behind in some recent games and sped up, but in a neutral state this team wants to stall. The Hornets will be better on defense than offense under defensive minded Coach David Patrick. 

This is not a home game for Hawaii. This is technically a neutral site contest which is a positive for the under as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UNC Wilmington Seahawks have slowed down their tempo significantly this year. They were 192nd in average possession length last year. They are 355th so far this year. 

Missouri State has typically been a slower paced team under Dana Ford. Missouri State lost their star scorers in Prim and Mosley from last year. This is a team with far more question marks than answers on offense right now.

This game is played in the Bahamas on a neutral floor. Neutral court unders have been a great angle especially early in the season. In the last 15 years the unders are nearly 55% in games 1-8 on a neutral court.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas Longhorns host the Baylor Bears on Friday in an early game in Austin the day after Thanksgiving. 

Texas has made some big strides on defense this year. The Longhorns are 26th in the nation in yards per play allowed. They are 27th in success rate allowed. Texas has occasionally given up big plays, but Baylor isn't a team that gets a lot of big plays this year with Blake Shapen at quarterback. 

Baylor is coached by a defensive mind in Dave Aranda. The Bears have only allowed 41 plays of 20 yards or more so far this year. They should be able to limit Texas' big plays better than most teams have. 

The weather should play a role in this game too. The current weather forecast calls for half an inch of rain during the game and winds of about 14 mph with gusts above 20 mph. That should make both teams more conservative and those conditions clearly benefit the under in the long run.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Villanova Wildcats are playing even a bit slower than they did a year ago. Villanova is using 20 seconds of the shot clock on average. The Wildcats lost two of their stars from last year's team, and I expect them to be a little less efficient on offense this year. Gillespie and Samuels are huge losses on the offensive end.

Iowa State added a tremendous defensive presence in the offseason. Osun Osunniyi should make this defense even better. He is a tremendous shot blocker and he will change the game a lot down low. The Cyclones are 8th in effective field goal percentage defense in the nation so far this year.

Villanova should control the pace here. The Wildcats haven't let a single game this year get past 65 possessions. 

This is a neutral court game which is a positive in the long run for unders.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UC Riverside Highlanders have been a team that plays with a slow pace and wins with defense every year under Mike Magpayo. They are 301st in tempo in the country so far this year (average possession length). UC Riverside is coming off a low scoring game against a high flying offense in Wright State.

Abilene Christian's usually fantastic defense wasn't very good last night against Weber State. I think they will bounce back in this one. 

Both of these teams are great on the defensive glass. That really helps limit those second chance points that can be killer for unders.

Early season neutral court games have gone about 55% to the under in the last 15 years.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The IUPUI Jaguars had the worst offense in the country last year and it wasn't even close. IUPUI put up less than 0.8 points per possession. It was an absolute train wreck on the offensive end. They aren't much better this year. They will be bottom three or so in the country on offense again this year. They also play at a bottom 50 tempo. 

Denver beat IUPUI 63-47 last year on a neutral floor. Denver is slightly better on offense this year, so I do expect more points than 110, but I think this total is too high. 

Lakefront Arena where this game is being played has been a fantastic under venue through the years because of a unique shooting backdrop. 

Early season neutral court games have gone about 55% to the under in the last 15 years.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Drexel has been good at controlling the pace of the game. The Dragons have played every Division One team on their schedule thus far to 68 possessions or fewer. The Dragons are playing a faster paced team today in Indiana State, but I still expect them to do a pretty good job of slowing the pace down.

Indiana State takes a bunch of long range jumpers. That plays to the strength of Zach Spiker and the Drexel defense. They have been a much above average team defending the 3 point line in the last few years. I expect the Sycamores to be taking a lot of contested shots from 3 in this one.

This is a neutral site game early in the season and those have been nearly 55% to the under in the last 15 years.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Lafayette Leopards are playing at one the slowest paces in the entire country. In fact, in overall tempo Lafayette is the slowest team according to KenPom. Their new coach has clearly changed the way they play. 

Penn has played three really good offenses and teams who usually play fairly quickly in Iona, Missouri, and West Virginia. Penn isn't likely to be pushing the pace very much here.

Lafayette puts up a bunch of 3 pointers, so if they are shooting really well this probably goes over, but the scouting reports on them are that they are a bit short on great shooters at this point. 

Penn turns the ball over too much to be terribly efficient on offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Liberty Flames have always preferred a slow tempo under Coach Ritchie McKay. They typically rank among the 50 slowest tempo teams in the country. Liberty has had some relatively high scoring games so far this year, but I think that is more about the teams they have played against than anything else. Specifically, Alabama put up a big number on them, but if Alabama is hitting their jump shots they are going to score a bunch on just about anyone.

Northwestern's tempo is down this year. The Wildcats are 11th in effective field goal percentage defense so far this year. Their offense has been inefficient despite playing one of the 10 easiest slates of defenses so far this year.

This is a neutral site game early in the season which is a clear positive for the under based on the long term trends.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Abilene Christian Wildcats take a lot of bad jumpers. They have poor floor spacing and I don't like the sets this team runs in the halfcourt. If they aren't getting points in transition they usually struggle on offense.

Weber State has a new coach in Eric Duft and he has this team slowing down the pace. They are no longer playing to the pace they did under longtime coach Randy Rahe. Weber State isn't good at finishing at the rim either.

Abilene Christian is an excellent defensive team that forces a lot of turnovers.

This is a neutral site game early in the season which is a clear positive for the under based on the long term trends.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Here is a matchup that looks much different than it would have if these teams had played last year. 

Nevada lost their star scorer from a year ago, and they have decided to play at a much slower pace. The Wolf Pack went from being a team ranked in the top 50 in tempo to being a team that is playing slower than average. 

Kansas State is still much better on defense than offense. The Wildcats don't have a clear go to scorer on offense.

This is a neutral site game played early in the year and those are about 55% to the under in the last 15 years.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas Tech defense will be a top 10 defense in the country again this year. Adams is a fantastic defensive coach.

Louisville is atrocious offensively. Their guard play is about as bad as you will ever see from a big name team. They should have a lot of trouble scoring here.

This game is on a neutral floor and those early neutral court games have been great to under bettors for many years now.

Take the under in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* Northern Kentucky has showed their blueprint for winning games this year. They will slow the game down as much as possible and try to win it with their defense. They are coming off a fantastic win over Cincinnati where they held the Bearcats to 11 points in the second half. Northern Kentucky ranks 350th out of 363 teams in the country in tempo so far this season.

Florida Gulf Coast has a new head coach this year in Pat Chambers. Chambers has slowed this team down quite a bit too. Florida Gulf Coast is 283rd in average possession length after being all the way up at 99th last year. They sometimes struggle with fouling too much on defense, but under Coach Horn the Northern Kentucky team hasn't usually been one that gets to the charity stripe very often.

This is on a neutral floor and that is a benefit for the under too.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Holy Cross has decided to pick up the pace drastically this year. The Crusaders were 200th in average possession length two years. They were 168th last year. They are all the way up to 38th quickest so far this year. Holy Cross is still an atrocious defensive team, and now their opposition is getting more possessions with the ball. Holy Cross has played four games this year, and the fewest points in one of their games has been 143. The other three games all had at least 156 points.

Fordham's Keith Urgo said before the season one of his main goals was to get the Rams playing at a faster pace. Fordham has been a bit faster this year. The team still struggles with offensive efficiency issues against good defenses, but this Holy Cross defense will be the worst they have faced so far this season. Darius Quisenberry is a really solid scorer and I would expect a big game from him here.

The pace should be such that it would take a really bad shooting night to keep this under the total. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Howard Bison have decided to slow their tempo down in the last couple games. Even against an ultra fast paced team in Buffalo, Howard played the game to just 68 possessions. Buffalo is accustomed to playing games at least in the mid 70's in pace. Howard also slowed the game down a lot against Wyoming. It was just some fouling late in that game that got it to 148 points.

Belmont isn't as good offensively this year as they have been. Nick Muszynski was the focal point for their offense the last few seasons, and now he is gone. They are playing relatively quickly, but it has been clearly slower than a year ago.

This game is played at The Virgin Islands Fitness Center. This has been a great under venue. The under has cashed at a better than 60% rate in this gym.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UCF Golden Knights have slowed their pace in a big way this year. UCF is 351st in average possession length so far this year. UCF has a bunch of height and I think Coach Dawkins is slowing the pace due to his big men not being as good running the floor. What are these big men really good at though? They are shot blockers and change a bunch of shots in the paint. The UCF defense is excellent on multiple levels. 

Santa Clara lost their two best scorers from last year. The Broncos do push the pace when they can, but I expect them to be better on defense than offense this year. Santa Clara is great at clearing defensive rebounds and defending without fouling.

This is an early season neutral court game. In game 1-8 of the regular season- neutral court unders of 133 points or higher are 54.7% since 2006. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This game will be played at The Virgin Islands Sport and Fitness Center. Games played here have gone more than 60% to the under in a sample size of more than 100 games. This is a tough shooting backdrop and a court that is set up far different than a normal basketball court.

Wyoming has played faster so far this year, but their last game against Howard was their slowest paced game yet. The Cowboys rely a lot on getting to the free throw line. Drake hasn't fouled very much under Coach Darian Devries over the last few seasons.

Drake usually plays at an average or slightly slower than average tempo. The Bulldogs aren't likely to want a track meet here.

Wyoming's opponents are shooting 88.9% from the free throw line. This will regress to the mean over time.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Vikings and Dallas Cowboys will square off in a big game in Minnesota on Sunday. 

Minnesota's offense has big play potential with Justin Jefferson. Kirk Cousins on the whole is a pretty solid quarterback too. Dalvin Cook just ran for 8.5 ypc against the Bills who are a solid defense. Cook has game breaking speed and is capable of busting a big one at any time.

The Dallas offense has put up well north of 400 yards in back to back games. With Dak Prescott back, this becomes one of the better offenses in the NFL again. Tony Pollard is a big play running back too. 

This one should be tight all the way and overtime is a possibility as well. Being played in the dome the conditions are ripe for scoring.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Chicago Bears have become a great over team of late. The Bears have scored 29 points or more in four straight games. They have also allowed 119 points in those four games. That is 29.75 points per game allowed. 

This isn't the Chicago Bears from a few years ago. The Bears had previously been one of the better defenses in the NFL and one of the worst offenses in the NFL. That no longer is the case. The Bears defense is much weaker now. They traded away top talent and some of the other guys are past their prime. 

The Bears coaching staff has found a way to game plan to Justin Fields' strengths and that has made a huge difference. Fields is looking like a dangerous weapon especially with his legs.

Atlanta's defense is second worst in the NFL in yards per play. A.J. Terrell might be back for this one, but even he hasn't been good this year. The Falcons secondary is still very shorthanded. On offense, the Atlanta running attack is likely to work better against the Bears than it has against recent opponents. 

This one being played on a fast track in a dome is helpful for points too.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The weather forecast for this game has gotten increasingly bad. The sustained winds now are expected to be at about 20 mph in this game. The wind gusts are expected to reach 35-40 mph. 

The Patriots have an argument for the best defense in the NFL. New England doesn't give up big plays, and I trust them to slow down the Jets offense especially now that Breece Hall is injured. Wilson is one of the worst QB's in the NFL right now.

The Jets defense has been sneaky good this year. This is a tough group that doesn't let opponents get anything easily. The run defense is very underrated. 

The play calling here should get even more run heavy with this kind of weather. I expect a lot of moving clock.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Charlotte 49ers are great at controlling the pace of the game with Ron Sanchez as their head coach. Charlotte ranks 356th out of 363 in tempo so far this year. The 49ers just slowed down both Boise State and Tulsa in the last two days. I think they can control the tempo here as well.

Frank Martin's teams do like to play relatively quickly, but his teams are also often good on defense. Martin talked about in the offseason that he thought turning around this UMass defense was the first priority. It is already showing up on the court. They have held two solid offenses (Colorado and Murray State) to less than 1 point per possession in their last two games.

This is an early season neutral court game. In game 1-8 of the regular season- neutral court unders of 133 points or higher are 54.7% since 2006. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kentucky Wildcats offense is really weak this year. The offensive line has been a major problem. Kentucky has allowed 39 sacks despite having far fewer plays than most teams in the country because of their slow pace. The Wildcats are averaging only 3.29 ypc on the year. They are up against the best run defense in the SEC here.

Kentucky is 131st (slowest in the country) in tempo this year. The Wildcats are trying to run the ball and win with defense. Georgia is 108th in tempo, so the Bulldogs are fine with a slower paced game as well.

Georgia's offense is very good, but the Bulldogs have shown to be willing to slow the game down and be conservative with a lead. I expect them to be playing from ahead by a solid margin here. I think Georgia slows things down even more and runs the football a lot in the second half.

The weather here is a bit of a help for the under too. Sustained winds of 15 mph and gusts to 24 mph are in the forecast during this game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Michigan Wolverines and Illinois Fighting Illini will square off in Ann Arbor on Saturday afternoon. 

Illinois star running back Chase Brown suffered a fairly major injury late in their loss to Purdue. Brown is the leading rusher in the nation so far this year, and to say an injury to him hurts the Illini is a big understatement. There isn't really an update on his status yet, but I would be surprised if he plays. If he does play here, Brown will be less than 100% and he will be up against an elite rushing defense.

Michigan is 126th out of 131 teams in the country in tempo. The Wolverines are an excellent team, but they are content to run the football and slowly move the ball down the field. Michigan ranks 127th in explosiveness on offense in the country. The Illinois defense is second in the nation in rushing play success rate allowed. 

Michigan's defense is second in the nation in YPC allowed. The Wolverines defense is getting better as the season goes along. In Big Ten play, they are allowing only 2.33 ypc.

The early forecast for this one calls for 20 mph sustained winds with a temperature in the 20's. That could make these teams even more conservative with the play calling.

Take the under. 

*As the weather conditions have become more clear that wind will be fairly significant the under has taken money. I would bet this for 4 stars down to 42 and a 3 star rating down to 40. Thank you* 

*4 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors game stayed under for us yesterday, and I'm going to bet the under again here. Merrimack played to just 127 points against Troy in a game that was quite the foul fest throughout. The refs had a quick whistle especially in the first half.

Merrimack was without one of their best players in Jordan Minor for that game, and it sounds like he is questionable at best for this game. The Warriors are already offensively challenged even with him on the floor.

Montana is 350th out of 363 teams in the country in average possession length so far this year. The Grizzlies defensive numbers this year don't look good, but they have faced some very good offenses. Merrimack will be the worst offense they have gone up against yet.

Merrimack's zone defense is very tricky, and Montana is a team prone to lazy turnovers. I think that could lead to some efficiency issues on the offensive end.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The George Mason Colonials and Boston College Eagles will square off in the Virgin Islands in an early season neutral court game. 

George Mason and Boston College are both teams who have coaches who prefer to play at a slow pace. These two teams ranked 294th and 298th in tempo last season. I expect to see these teams settle into a pretty slow pace again here.

This game is played on a neutral court. Early season neutral court unders with a total of 133 or higher are 54.7% over a massive 2,600 game sample size dating back more than 15 years. That is on the closing total as well, and usually these games get bet down as the game gets closer.

This specific court in the Virgin Islands has a whopping 59-36 record to the under overall. It is a tough gym for the shooters.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are always an excellent defensive team under Coach Steve Pikiell. They have a dominant defensive big man in Omoruyi and he is going to be a major problem in the paint all year for the opposition. Rutgers has plenty of length on the perimeter as well. This is the 23rd tallest team in the country.

Temple has always been much better defensively than on offense under Aaron McKie. Temple's offensive numbers look good so far this year, but I expect those numbers to regress toward the mean. They don't have very many guys capable of creating their own shot, especially against a tough defense. 

This game is played on a neutral court. Early season neutral court unders with a total of 133 or higher are 54.7% over a massive 2,600 game sample size dating back more than 15 years. That is on the closing total as well, and usually these games get bet down as the game gets closer.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Green Bay Phoenix are led by Will Ryan (son of Bo Ryan). They are always going to look to slow the pace down in a big way. Green Bay is bottom 25 in tempo out of 363 teams already this year. The Phoenix are pacing that slow despite the fact they have been getting blasted in two of their three games so far this year.

Queens is a new Division I school and there isn't a bunch of data on them yet, but they did slow the game down to some degree against a very fast paced Marshall team. They played an average pace against La Salle. 

This game is played on a neutral court. Early season neutral court unders with a total of 133 or higher are 54.7% over a massive 2,600 game sample size dating back more than 15 years. That is on the closing total as well, and usually these games get bet down as the game gets closer.

An early start here is a plus too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Bucky McMillan is a guy who wants to press and push the tempo as much as possible. He said in the offseason they had too much youth and not enough depth last year. He said they will push the pace more this year. Samford will be pressing and forcing turnovers here.

Alabama A&M just turned the ball over 20 times against Tennessee State. If they couldn't handle that pressure, I think they'll turn it over a lot here and it will lead to Samford run outs and easy scores. 

Alabama A&M ranks 12th in the nation so far this year in quickest average possession length. Their new coach is Otis Hughley and this team seems intent on forcing the pace with him. They have been using extended pressure some as well.

Both of these teams are extremely prone to fouling a lot, so I expect a lot of trips to the charity stripe in this game.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Elon Phoenix have a new coach in Billy Taylor. He has been the assistant at Iowa recently, and he talked in the offseason about implementing a new much faster pace at Elon. Taylor has worked closely with Fran McCaffrey who consistently runs a very fast paced offense that has some tremendous set plays. He said he wants his team to be pushing for 50 points in a half. Here's a good chance for them.

Elon will face North Dakota, who is one of the worst defensive teams in the country. North Dakota has been 297th or lower in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense in each of the last three years. They just gave up 93 points to Pacific. 

The Elon defense lacks height on the interior and I expect North Dakota to be able to get into the paint and have success on offense. North Dakota has been terrible from the free throw line early this year, but that should positively regress some (55% from FT line).

Look for a quick pace in this one.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* This game will be played at a neutral court. The HTC Center in South Carolina. Early season neutral court unders has been a great trend in the long run, and I like the value on the under here.

Charlotte and Boise State are both excellent on the defensive glass. That is something I really like to focus on when I am looking at lower totals to stay under. I don't expect many second chance points here.

Charlotte is excellent at slowing the game down. The 49ers don't have the scoring firepower to win shootouts very often and they know it. 

Leon Rice is a good coach for the Broncos and his teams have become increasingly strong on the defensive end in recent years. They mix and match defenses and come up with some great game plans. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Merrimack has slowed the game down and played that fantastic zone defense of Joe Gallo’s year after year. I expect them to do the same again this year. In game one of their season they got down big early against St. John’s (much more talented team) and had to speed up the pace. I expect slower pace here.

Merrimack has been very inefficient on offense the last couple years. 336th and 325th in offensive efficiency in the country last two seasons. 

Troy’s best finish in offensive efficiency the last three years has been #258 in the country so another inefficient offense. Scott Cross’ team has improved a lot from a couple years ago on defense though.

An early season neutral court under and that has in the long run been a good angle.

I’m on the under.

*4 Star Play Under* The Omaha Mavericks have a new coach in Chris Crutchfield. Crutchfield has slowed down the tempo drastically at Omaha. This team was 50th in the nation in tempo last year. They are sitting at 251st so far this season. Omaha's coaching staff has emphasized the need for improved defense this year. They won't be great on defense by any means, but they'll be better than a year ago.

Ball State has a new coach in Mike Lewis. He was an assistant coach at UCLA and is a defensive-minded guy. In their first couple games, Ball State has played clearly slower than they did a year ago as well. They are using two seconds more per possession than they did a year ago. That will reduce the amount of overall possessions in the contest.

Two teams with new coaches who are looking to focus on defense and slow the pace down. The books have set a number that is pretty close to what it should have been with the previous coaches. I think there hasn't been a big enough adjustment made to the new styles of play here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The North Dakota Fighting Hawks have been atrocious on defense several years in a row. North Dakota's best defense in the last four years finished #297 in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. They were #353 last year. 

Pacific has changed the way they play this year. The Tigers have picked up the pace a bunch. Pacific is playing five possessions per game faster than they did a year ago. That kind of drastic change in pace is going to alter their totals quite a bit. I don't think the oddsmakers have caught up yet.

Pacific has played two games that finished at 166 and 177 points. Against North Dakota State, they were playing a good defensive team that likes to play slow and the game still hit 177 points.

North Dakota is good at getting to the charity stripe, and this Pacific team has been doing a lot of fouling with their aggressive pressing and trapping.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This game is being played on a neutral floor at Sanford Pentagon. South Dakota State is essentially the home team, but this is still not their normal court. Neutral games played early in the year have gone about 55% to the under in the last decade. 

St. Bonaventure is going to work hard to slow this game down. To say that the Bonnies lost a lot from last year is a major understatement. Nearly everyone either transferred or graduated from the Bonnies veteran team that has made multiple good runs in the last few years. Schmidt is a good coach and he will get this team to buy in, but the firepower isn't there now. They will try to keep it lower scoring.

South Dakota State also lost their two stars in Douglas Wilson and Bailey Scheirman. The Jackrabbits are still a solid team, but they don't have the huge offensive upside they had the last few seasons.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Mercer Bears have been a slightly below average tempo team the last couple years. Mercer takes on Georgia State who has a new coach in Jonas Hayes this year. 

It was a little unclear before the season what Jonas Hayes would do in terms of style and pace, but in his first two games it has been across the board slow tempo and a lot of the pack line defense. Hayes has taken Georgia State away from the pressing identity they had in the past. Georgia State ranks 341st (bottom 25 in terms of tempo) in average possession length so far this year. 

Georgia State is doing a really good job contesting shots inside the arc. Georgia State is taking a lot of low percentage offensive shots themselves though.

Look for a slow pace and some tough looks for both teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Sacramento State has a new head coach in David Patrick. Patrick has a history of having his teams slow the game down drastically. They also have played very good defense. 

So far this year, Sacramento State ranks 358th in overall tempo in the country. They are forcing games into slow paced rock fights. The Hornets have some great height in the interior too and they should keep opponents out of the paint and hold teams to one shot most of the time.

Denver played its only Division I game against Idaho. Idaho has one of the worst defenses in the country. Denver is likely to struggle against this Sacramento State defense.

Sacramento State has had two games and they finished with 126 and 120 points total. I think this game is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Matt Stafford is likely to be out with a concussion here. It was said that it will take a stunning turn for him to start in this one. John Wolford would get the start. The Rams offense gets ultra conservative with Wolford at quarterback. With Stafford in the lineup, the Rams are dead last in yards per play in the NFL. Wolford isn't an upgrade. 

Kyler Murray is considered doubtful by many here. He might play, but he is less than 100%- and he would likely take quite a few shots from this strong Rams defensive line if he plays. Colt McCoy is a solid backup, but the Cardinals do have a different and slightly more conservative game plan with him in the lineup too.

The Cardinals defense has given up some big plays this year, but the Rams aren't the team to expose that right now. The Rams are a top 10 defense and their defensive line should get in the backfield here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Mississippi State Bulldogs are a completely different team under new head coach Chris Jans. Jans always gets his teams to play tough defense. You won't play for Jans if you don't work extremely hard on defense. His teams typically play at a slow pace as well.

Mississippi State is 305th in the nation in tempo so far this year. The Bulldogs are already at 27th in effective field goal percentage defense too. They were 161st last year. Texas A&M Corpus Christi put up only 44 points on Mississippi State, and Akron only scored 54 points.

Arkansas Pine-Bluff is a really bad team from the SWAC. They are slightly slower than average in tempo and they are really inefficient on offense, even against SWAC teams. I find it very hard to believe that they'll be able to score very many points here. 

Look for Mississippi State to coast in this one. I think this total is a good amount too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Volunteers work very hard on defense for Rick Barnes. They have all kinds of length even on the perimeter and that can really make life difficult for opposing guards. Tennessee has been a top 5 defense the last couple years, and I expect them to be at least top ten again this year.

Colorado lacks a go to scorer this season. Tad Boyle's teams have struggled badly on the road through his whole tenure leading the team. 

This game is being played at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville. This is a spacious arena with well noted very tough shooting backdrops. In the queries I have run, Bridgestone Arena ranks in the top four for "under arenas." This is a place where the under has been a very good wager in the long run.

I see two solid defenses and a neutral floor that has been great for unders. I like this one to stay below the number.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Don't look now, but the Chicago Bears offense has been absolutely on fire of late. Chicago has put up 33, 29, and 32 points in their last three games. The Bears are starting to utilize Justin Fields in a much better way. Fields has amazing ability to keep plays alive and use his legs to create. 

The Bears traded away their best defensive player, and they have been banged up on defense with the guys who are left also. In their last two games they have given 49 and 35 points. The Lions aren't likely to score that many, but I think Detroit will get plenty of yards and points here.

The Lions defense is a bottom three defense in the NFL. Detroit even allowed nearly 400 yards against the Packers offense last week. Green Bay struggled badly in the red zone, and Rodgers had some bad turnovers. 

Jared Goff has enough weapons around him now with Swift, Williams, and St. Brown being back on the field. Look for them to be able to pick up some chunk plays on this Bears defense.

Both teams are playing at a faster than league average pace.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* I fully expect Corey Gipson to slow the tempo down some at Northwestern State. Gipson knows this Northwestern State team has to get much better on defense than they have been in recent years. He comes from Missouri State and I think we'll see a pretty drastic difference in this Northwestern State team's style of play right away.

Illinois State has a new coach as well in Ryan Pedon comes in to take over for Dan Mueller. Pedon was an Ohio State assistant, and his preferred pace will be much slower than Illinois State has played in recent years as well. The Redbirds rank 300th in the country in tempo so far this year. 

I don't think the oddsmakers have adjusted enough based on the new styles these two teams will be playing with these new head coaches. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Presbyterian Blue Hose are a very weak team on offense. Presbyterian doesn't take good shots, and they don't really have that many clear cut scorers on the team. While they aren't good on offense, this Presbyterian defense is really scrappy. Quinton Ferrell is a defensive-minded coach, and it absolutely shows with their aggressive defense. They force a lot of turnovers and often cause the offense to take tough jump shots.

East Carolina has a new coach in Michael Schwartz. He has been the defensive mastermind at Tennessee the last few years for Rick Barnes. Schwartz has done an amazing job switching up defenses and using aggressive defenses to make the offense uncomfortable at all times. He has been clear that he thinks this East Carolina team has the athleticism to be good on defense immediately. On offense, they will likely still need to get things figured out for a while.

Last year, Presbyterian's first 5 games all had 126 or fewer total points. Their first two this year have had 128 or fewer. 

The tempo should be fairly slow in this one as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Alabama run defense has been much weaker in recent weeks. Alabama has shown some weakness especially against mobile quarterbacks and run games that use tempo. Jaxson Dart is mobile enough to do some damage, and we know Ole Miss plays quickly.

Ole Miss is third in the nation in tempo this year. They are playing faster than Tennessee. The Rebels have two star running backs in Judkins and Evans. I think both of them can have some success here. Dart is inconsistent at quarterback, but he has an average depth of target of about 11 yards so he takes a lot of shots down the field. Dart is capable of hitting some big gainers against this Alabama secondary that has been prone to giving up the long ball.

The Alabama offense should be able to move the ball all over this weak Ole Miss defense. Early in the year they looked much improved, but this defense has completely fallen apart against any kind of decent competition. Look at their recent performances against Vanderbilt, Auburn, LSU, and Texas A&M for examples. They gave up 500 yards to LSU. They allowed 34 points against a very questionable Auburn offense. They let a terrible A&M offense score 28 points and roll up 480 yards. Bryce Young should have a huge day here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Marshall Thundering Herd are a great under team. Marshall's defense ranks first in the entire country in success rate allowed. This is a really good group of defenders that has no clear weakness. Marshall is second in havoc created by the front seven. The Thundering Herd are allowing only 2.57 ypc on the season. 

Appalachian State prefers to run the ball. The Mountaineers have good running backs, but I think they will have more trouble running it in this game against this great front seven. App State has run the ball on 55.4% of their plays overall this year. 

Marshall's offense is a hot mess. Cam Fancher doesn't look downfield much at all. The Thundering Herd are running the ball on 63% of their plays in Sun Belt action. Though the Marshall run game is decent, opponents are now game planning for the run and loading up the box since Marshall isn't stretching the field.

Marshall has played six straight games that have finished with a total of 37 points or fewer.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Illinois Fighting Illini haven't played a game that went over 44 total points all year. They probably will at some point, but I think this will be another low scoring contest.

Purdue has had much lower scoring games on the road under Jeff Brohm than they have when playing at Ross Ade Stadium. The Boilermakers rely heavily on the passing game, and Illinois is first in the nation in opposing QBR allowed. 

Illinois wants to run the football and use up the clock. The Fighting Illini should be able to dictate a slow pace in this one as well.

Early forecasts call for winds of 15-20 mph in this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* I had been leaning strongly toward an under in this game to begin with, but now the news of AJ Swann being out for Vanderbilt has pushed me to bet the under in this one.

Vanderbilt's offense was helped a lot by Swann's play making ability. Kentucky's defense has been fantastic all year. The Wildcats are 9th in the nation in defensive success rate allowed. 

In SEC play, only game for Kentucky has gone over this total and that was their loss to Tennessee. It only finished at a total of 50 points. The rest of the games have finished with: 42 points, 41 points, 38 points, 44 points, and 38 points. 

The Kentucky offense plays at the slowest tempo of any team in the country. Look for them to run the football a lot here and use up the clock.

The weather could be a bit of a factor here as well. Winds of 15 mph with gusts to 22 mph are in the early forecast.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Arkansas Razorbacks had a lot of turnover in their roster, but Eric Musselman's team is loaded with talent once again this year. Arkansas brought in Trevon Brazile from Missouri. He is a big man who can play down low or step outside and hit the 3 ball. Ricky Council is a good pickup from Wichita State as well. The Razorbacks expect big things out of freshmen Anthony Black and Jordan Walsh as well. 

Arkansas always wants to force the tempo, and I expect no different this year. The Razorbacks have a lot of speed and they'll use it whenever they can. 

Fordham has a new coach in Keith Urgo after Kyle Neptune got the Villanova job. Urgo said in the offseason that he wants his team to really pick up the pace compared to last year. Here is a great chance for them to play quickly. They did move quickly in a high scoring 88-74 win over Dartmouth in game one. Fordham sometimes struggles with efficiency on offense, and they could some here, but I think the pace will be such that they should be able to put up enough points.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Princeton offense that Joe Scott runs is all about keeping his team that is far less talented than the opposition in the game with a great scheme. It also does a very good job of slowing the pace down. I expect Air Force to be one of the 20 slowest paced teams in the country yet again this season. 

Air Force slowed down Bowling Green (a very fast paced team) in their season opening contest. That game finished 62-58. The Falcons will slow the tempo down again here.

Delaware has some new faces this year, and the Blue Hens have improved defensively according to their head coach. They have better length and they have quick perimeter defenders. Delaware is expected to take some time to gel on offense with new faces getting quite a few minutes.

I like this one to stay lower scoring.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Fresno State Bulldogs will look quite a bit different without star big man Orlando Robinson. He was their star on both ends and Justin Hutson has to find a different way to win games with this Fresno team this year. 

Fresno State always competes very hard on the defensive end for Coach Hutson. I think Hutson will have another solid defensive team this year. 

UCSB is well coached by Joe Pasternack. He wants to play at a slow pace. UCSB has offensive talent, but they aren't likely to push the issue or put up too many shots from three point range. On defense, UCSB is a top 75 team in effective field goal percentage defense.

Fresno State always wants to play slowly as well. Hutson's teams are well noted for doing a great job of controlling the pace of the game. 

This game is played at a neutral site. Early neutral site games have been very good under plays in the long term.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Presbyterian Blue Hose can definitely turn a game into an ugly low scoring contest. This is a team that forces turnovers in loads thanks to their aggressive defense. They also are very inefficient on offense and rank in the bottom 50 in the country in possession length on offense. They play at a very slow pace.

The Citadel will look a lot different without Duggar Baucom on the sidelines. The Citadel will no longer be a top ten tempo team that puts up 3's nonstop and gives up quick shots each time the other weay. I expect them to be an average paced team or so. The offense will be run completely differently.

Presbyterian can probably get the Bulldogs into a slower paced game here. I don't think the adjustment has been quite large enough here based on The Citadel's changes.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Reading the quotes from Jeremy Ballard, the coach of FIU, has me thinking this FIU team is about to play much faster once again this year. This team ranked first in the nation in overall pace of play in Ballard's first season. They were consistently very fast until last year. Ballard said he had the team slow down their tempo because of COVID issues and injuries. They weren't nearly as successful. Ballard said he was very upset to not get to press full court and try to turn the game into a track meet. He says they will do that again this year. Here is a great chance to show that.

Houston Christian is a team that has struggled with turnovers a lot the last few years. FIU should be able to get quick steals and scores off them. Houston Christian is happy to play a quick pace too and I think they'll get enough points of their own.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The LA Chargers have played at the fastest pace of any team in the NFL so far this year. The Chargers are also dead last in run defense allowing 5.7 yards per carry on the season. That's important here since Atlanta runs the ball so often and is a team with explosiveness in the run game.

Atlanta's secondary is a mess right now. Heyward on injured reserve is crucial since he is their best corner. Terrell might come back here, but he has graded out very poorly this season. The team is extremely thin in the secondary. The Chargers are starting to get slightly healthier in the passing game too.

The Chargers have had 3 of their last 4 games finish at 58 points or higher. Atlanta has had their last two games go to 52 points (45 in the first half against the Bengals) and 71 points (against the Panthers who are weak offensively).

I think this total is several points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Buffalo Bills defense has been underrated by nearly everyone. Buffalo of course has a strong offense, but the defense has been the better unit so far this year. Buffalo hasn't allowed more than 21 points in a game this year. Buffalo is giving up an average of just 14.0 points per game. 

Wilson and the Jets aren't an offense I trust against anyone right now. Wilson is one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL, and he doesn't even have his security blanket in Breece Hall anymore. Hall going down with an injury was a massive loss for this Jets offense. The Jets have scored just 16 and 17 points in their last two games. 

The weather calls for a little wind here (10-15 mph). Divisional unders with wind of 10 mph or more have gone 57% to the under in the last 15 years. This one fits the system.

I don't see the Jets scoring much here, but the Jets defense has played pretty well this year. Gardner is a tremendous addition in the secondary.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Bengals have cluster injuries in the secondary. Awuzie is the leader of the secondary and him being out for the year is a massive loss for this Bengals team. Now Mike Hilton is also out with an injury. Backup cornerback Tre Flowers is doubtful since he missed all week of practice (he could still play). The Bengals are even activating a practice squad cornerback for this game. 

PJ Walker has looked much better the last couple games. DJ Moore is an elite receiver and I expect him to get open deep multiple times against this Bengals secondary. The Bengals pass rush is also subpar, so I think Walker has some time to throw here.

Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense should look much better than it did last game in Cleveland. Even without Chase, the Bengals have plenty of weapons on offense to be solid. The Panthers pass rush isn't as good as the Browns either. Look for Burrow to have a bounce back game here and hit some big gainers. I still view Burrow as one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. If he is given some time here, he can get it done.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Troy Trojans have the best defensive line in the Sun Belt. Troy is 13th in the nation in YPC allowed. They are also 18th in explosiveness allowed on defense, so they don't give up big plays very often. 

Louisiana has relied on big plays to score this year. The Ragin' Cajuns are just 112th in the nation in success rate on offense. They don't have the strong running game they have had in recent years. 

The Troy offense isn't good at all. They have been running the ball more lately, but they are averaging only 2.75 ypc. The Louisiana secondary is top 15 in PFF coverage grade rankings. 

Troy's pace of play has slowed down drastically in conference play. They are using more than 30 seconds between snaps and they have slowed their pace down more than 2 seconds compared to their average pace in the non-conference.

Louisiana has seen 4 of its 8 games finish with 38 total points or fewer. Troy has seen 4 of its last 5 games finish at 37 points or fewer.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Marshall Thundering Herd are a really good under team. Marshall is a really poor offensive team. They rank 128th out of 131 teams in the country in terms of explosiveness. They also are just 113th in success rate. Marshall has been held to 13 points or fewer in three of their last five contests. 

On the other side, the Marshall defense is tremendous. The Thundering Herd defense is allowing only 4.48 yards per play this year (7th in the country). They rank third in the nation in success rate allowed. Marshall has allowed 16 points or fewer in three of their last five contests. The Thundering Herd rank second in defensive havoc created by the front seven.

Old Dominion's offense has looked good in the Sun Belt action so far, but they have played weak defenses. Arkansas State, Georgia Southern, Coastal Carolina, and Georgia State are all much worse than average defenses. Now, they take on the best overall defense in the Sun Belt.

Old Dominion played a couple low scoring games earlier against quality defenses with a poor offense. Their games against Virginia and Virginia Tech stayed well below the number.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers defense has been better than anyone could have possibly expected. Missouri ranks 14th in success rate allowed on defense so far this year. Missouri is 12th in success rate allowed against the run.

Kentucky will want to run the ball as much as possible. In SEC play, Kentucky is running it on nearly 61% of their offensive plays. The Wildcats are also dead last in the nation in tempo (131st out of 131). Kentucky is only averaging 3.31 ypc in SEC action. Their offensive line is much weaker than it was a year ago.

Kentucky's defense has been excellent this year. The Wildcats rank 12th in success rate allowed. Missouri's offense has slowed their tempo drastically in conference play. The Tigers rank only 101st in explosiveness on offense as well.

The long range weather forecast calls for 15 mph winds and a chance of rain here. I like the under even without any help from the weather, but this would be a bonus for the under as well.

I think this one stays low scoring.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The weather forecast in West Lafayette is pretty wild for this one. A blend of three different forecasts calls for 25 mph sustained winds with gusts of about 30-32 mph during this one. There is also a good chance of rain during the game. The wind is the big deal here, but any rain added in is also a plus.

Iowa is an under team through and through. This Hawkeyes defense is elite. The Hawkeyes offense is awful. Iowa plays at an extremely slow tempo.

How good is the defense? Iowa is YPC allowed on the season. They are 13th in opponent QBR. 

Purdue is 29th in YPC allowed this year. The secondary is a little weak, but Iowa isn't a team that can take advantage of that.

Both teams should be playing far more conservatively if the weather forecast is even close to correct here. Purdue is a great passing team, but their run game averages only 3.45 ypc in Big Ten play. Iowa averages just 2.9 yards per carry.

Two good run defenses and a lot of running clock here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* I have kept an eye on this game and the weather report throughout the week. I didn't want to fire on this one too early since I wouldn't want to bet under this number without the help of weather conditions to keep the scoring down. 

Checking from 8 different weather sources, there is a solid consensus now that the winds during this game will be very intense. The National Weather Service, which I consider one of the best weather resources out there, has upped their wind forecast for this game as the week has gone along. They are calling for sustained winds of about 25-28 mph throughout this game with gusts of 45 or even 50 mph. 

That kind of weather changes a game in a big way. Maryland has an explosive passing attack, but if this weather forecast is even close to right it will make Maryland more conservative in their play calling. The Terrapins aren't great at running the football.

Wisconsin's passing attack has occasionally worked of late in the play action passes. Expect less of that here with Maryland loading up the box.

Does the wind matter? The answer is absolutely yes. I ran a query and found the following:

Games with an average wind speed of 20 mph and an average temperature lower than 60 degrees have gone a whopping 52-13 to the under in the last 15 years. That's an 80% win rate. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Charlotte Hornets aren't the same offense without LaMelo Ball and Gordon Hayward. Those guys really bump up the efficiency numbers on offense. Terry Rozier is doubtful here too, and he and Ball are the two who really push the pace. 

Memphis has played poor defense overall this year, and that has led to some disappointing outcomes. They were much better defensively last game, and their coaching staff is really working on improving the defensive end.

I think this total would be appropriate if Rozier, Ball, and Hayward were all healthy, but they aren't. With these guys out, I believe this total is a few points high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Justin Verlander is 0-6 with a 6.07 ERA in his career in the World Series. He has the highest ERA of any starting pitcher to throw at least 30 innings in the World Series. Verlander was spotted a lead in game one and couldn't hold it. He hasn't been quite himself since coming back from an injury to his calf late in the season. 

Noah Syndergaard makes the start here for the Phillies. Syndergaard hasn't been that trustworthy this year. He is very capable of giving up that big inning. The Astros have a deep lineup and they can string together hits and keep runners in scoring position throughout. 

Both bullpens have been used quite a bit and that can lead to some issues. They haven't had days off as much here since they had to play Tuesday and Wednesday night after the rain out on Monday. 

Both of these offenses ranked top 8 in the majors in the last 30 days. The Phillies were no hit yesterday, but I think they can bounce back here.

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New Orleans Saints defense was supposed to be a high quality defense this year. That hasn't turned out to be the case. Marshon Lattimore's absence badly hurts a thin secondary, and many teams have taken advantage of this weakness. The Raiders have the guys to take advantage too. Davante Adams is expected to play here after missing some time this week due to an illness. Waller is questionable, but the Raiders do have good secondary options and I think Carr is a bit underrated by many people.

The Saints offense has been clicking very nicely of late. New Orleans has scored 25 points or more in four straight games. The Raiders rank 22nd in defensive grade at PFF (the Saints are 21st). Andy Dalton has been slinging it around nicely. Dalton is capable of big plays both ways.

This game is played on a fast track.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Marshall Thundering Herd have one of the best defenses in the country. Marshall is 9th in YPP Allowed and 3rd in success rate allowed. The Thundering Herd are third in the country in defensive havoc created by the front seven. They should be in the Coastal Carolina backfield quite a bit in this one.

Coastal Carolina has been a high scoring team much of the season, but this is the best defense they have faced on the season. Coastal Carolina moves at a very slow pace. They rank 107th in the nation in tempo. The Chanticleers run on 57.5% of their plays on the season. 

Marshall's offense is a mess. The Thundering Herd are 128th in the nation in explosiveness. They are 126th in passing play success rate. They will try to run it early and often. They are running the ball on 65% of their plays in Sun Belt action. 

This number has been bumped up enough that I have to back the under here. Coastal Carolina carries some risk to unders, but Marshall has been an under machine. I'll count on Marshall to keep this one down.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Illinois is a far better defense than many people have given them credit for being. Ryan Walters is an excellent defensive coordinator, and he has really taken this Illinois team upward with his great defensive schemes.

Illinois hasn't had a game this year above 44 total points. The Fighting Illini are playing a faster paced opponent here, so I understand the total being set higher, but I still like the value on the under in this one. 

Nebraska's offense hasn't played a defense even close to this good so far this year. The Cornhuskers will likely have a hard time getting into rhythm and I don't think we'll see many explosive plays. 

Illinois is primarily about the running game. Chase Brown is really good and he'll get his yards here, but the Nebraska defense has improved quite a bit in run defense in the conference. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oregon Ducks offense has outperformed all expectations so far this year. Kenny Dillingham is doing a tremendous job with this unit. Bo Nix is having a better season than anyone could possibly predict. Oregon ranks 2nd in the nation in success rate. The Ducks are averaging 7.09 yards per play. They are averaging 6.14 ypc (2nd in the country). 

The Cal defense that is usually very strong is much weaker than normal this year. Cal is 117th in the nation in rushing play success rate allowed. Oregon should have a bunch of success running the ball. In Pac 12 play, Cal is allowing 6.08 yards per play.

The Oregon defense isn't as good as it was expected to be. The Ducks are 97th in yards per play allowed. They are 100th in defensive success rate allowed. They are worst against the pass (115th in success rate allowed). Cal should be in passing situations quite a bit in a big underdog role in this game.

Look for Oregon to move the ball easily here and Cal will get enough to put it over.

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights defense has been very good this year. Rutgers has seen 4 of its last 5 games finish at 41 points or lower. The only game to go over this total was their meeting with Ohio State. Minnesota is clearly nothing like Ohio State. Rutgers is 10th in YPP allowed on the season. 

As good as the Rutgers defense is, the offense is that bad. Rutgers is 110th in YPP on offense. They have scored 16 points or fewer in four of their last five games. Rutgers has been held to 10, 10, and 13 against Ohio State, Iowa, and Nebraska. 

The Minnesota offense is extremely run heavy. Minnesota is running it on 65% of their offensive plays on the season. Rutgers has been especially strong against the run this year. Tanner Morgan is questionable for Minnesota here as well.

Rutgers is 114th in tempo and Minnesota is 128th. The clock should be rolling here and I don't expect to see many possessions.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arkansas Razorbacks offense is very explosive. They just put up 52 points at BYU. Arkansas is elite in the running game, and that will be a big problem. The Auburn run defense is 97th out of 131 teams in the country in rushing play success rate allowed. Auburn is allowing 5.4 yards per carry in SEC action. KJ Jefferson is good enough in the passing game to keep Auburn honest in the secondary as well. 

Auburn's offense has been far more explosive than most would expect. The Tigers rank 4th in the country in explosiveness. The Tigers have a great weapon in Tank Bigsby. Arkansas has virtually no shot at stopping him. The Razorbacks run defense is 122nd in the country in rushing defense success rate allowed. Ashford has been decent at quarterback for Auburn. He is capable of big plays either way. He could throw a pick six or he could hit a deep pass. Arkansas is 128th in explosiveness allowed.

Arkansas pushes the pace in a big way. The Razorbacks are 16th in pace of play in the country. 

I expect a lot of big plays in a tight high scoring contest.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Bucks are first in the NBA in defensive efficiency so far this year. Milwaukee has a ton of length all over the floor, and I would expect them to be a major problem for opposing offenses throughout the season. 

Milwaukee has been playing slower so far this year as well. In their first three games, Milwaukee is playing at a tempo slower than NBA league average. If that continues, I think the Bucks could have some much lower scoring games than expected. Their defense against the Nets last game was excellent.

The Knicks have been good so far this year, but this is a completely different matchup that should trouble them. New York is no faster than league average in tempo either.

This number is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Los Angeles Chargers offense struggled badly against the Denver Broncos last game, but the Broncos defense is excellent. The Chargers have a lot of injuries and that has led to them being weaker than expected. Still, this is a team with good skill position talent and they play very quickly. In neutral play situations, the Chargers are first in the NFL in tempo.

The Seattle Seahawks defense looked good last weekend against Arizona. I'm still not convinced they are a good defense though. For the season overall, Seattle is 30th out of 32 teams in yards per play allowed. The Seahawks have given up 27 points or more in 4 of their last 5 games. 

The LA Chargers defense is just 26th out of 32 teams in YPP allowed. Seattle's offense has been much better than expected with Geno Smith playing some excellent football at quarterback. He has good wide receivers and the Chargers secondary is below average. 

I think both teams do their fair share of scoring here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Denver Broncos might have the best defense in the NFL. It is certainly a top three defense in the NFL. Denver is giving up only 4.5 yards per play this season (2nd in the NFL). The Broncos are well balanced with a strong defensive line and a great secondary as well.

The New York Jets have a star rookie in Sauce Gardner. The Jets are a top 10 run defense in the NFL again this year too. 

Denver's offense has been an absolute mess. I don't see them fixing it right away. The Broncos have only seen one of their games so far this year go higher than 35 points total. Two of their games have gone into overtime too.

The weather forecast is key here as well. The forecast for Sunday afternoon calls for sustained winds of 20 mph with gusts to 38 mph during the game. There is a 30 percent chance of showers as well. This kind of weather makes both teams far more conservative. I expect a lot more running and less deep passes. That is a boost for the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Bengals offense finally got rolling last weekend in New Orleans. Joe Burrow threw for 300 yards and easily had his best game of the season thus far. Chase caught two touchdowns. Higgins practiced in full on Friday and probably will be back for the Bengals here.

The Atlanta Falcons already have a weak secondary, and now they are badly banged up in the secondary. Casey Hayward, their best corner, is on the injured list and will miss this game. Dee Alford was expected to step in and get playing time at corner, but he is now out with an injury too. AJ Terrell is playing through an injury as well, and his numbers this year have been very poor. The Bengals passing attack should have a lot of success in this game.

The Bengals defense started the season playing great, but injuries are really slowing them down of late. DJ Reader is a fantastic run stuffer and he is out. Logan Wilson is easily their best linebacker and he will miss this game too. Josh Toupou is out at DT as well. 

Atlanta is a very good running team and I think they will break some big gainers on the ground as New Orleans did last weekend against Cincinnati. 

This total has edged up, but it hasn't gone up enough.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Southern Miss Golden Eagles defense is a very good unit. Southern Miss is 19th in success rate allowed on defense this year. Southern Miss has given up only 8 plays of 30 yards or more as well, so they are also very good at preventing big plays.

Texas State has slowed their pace of play down drastically this year. The Bobcats have usually been a top 25 tempo team under Spavital, but they are 83rd on the season. Their tempo they have played at in their three Sun Belt games is two seconds slower than they were playing in the non-conference slate as well so they have really shifted things down. 

Texas State is much improved on defense. The Bobcats are 30th at preventing big plays. They are allowing just 3.31 ypc in Sun Belt action. Texas State is a bit weaker in the secondary, but Southern Miss does have a weak passing attack.

Both teams like to play slowly and I think they'll be several long drives that end in field goals here as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* I've really been impressed by the Missouri defense in their last few games. In their 3 SEC games they have allowed just 5.21 ypp. Those games were at Auburn, home against Georgia, and at Florida. 

Vanderbilt and Missouri have both slowed their tempo drastically in SEC play. Vanderbilt is using 30.51 seconds between plays on average (more than 2 seconds slower than in non-con action). Missouri is using 28.29 seconds between plays (about 1.5 seconds slower than in non-con action). The tempo should stay very slow in this contest.

The weather here calls for 12 mph winds with gusts of 23 mph during the game. That should encourage a more conservative game plan. Vanderbilt has given up a lot of big plays through the air this year, but the weather and the conservative nature of the Missouri offense should help. The Missouri defense has really been much better against the run in recent games.

A slower pace and some weather helping as well.

Take the under.  

*4 Star Play Under* There is a lot working in the favor of delivering value on the under in this matchup.

James Madison just played a 45-38 shootout against Georgia Southern. GA Southern is an extremely fast paced team who makes every game high scoring. James Madison is having a really good season. The Dukes have a good offense, but they haven't had to play a defense as good as Marshall yet. The Thundering Herd are second in the nation in ypc allowed. James Madison will move it through the air here, but they don't play terribly quickly. If they are playing from the lead late (they probably will be), they have shown to be very conservative and run the ball a lot.

Marshall's offense has been absolutely awful, especially in their last few games. Marshall put up 2.5 YPP against Troy a couple games ago. They then put up just 276 yards and 4.2 YPP against Louisiana last week. They only found the end zone very late in the game when Louisiana had backed off into a prevent defense. 

James Madison is #1 in the nation in YPC allowed. Marshall is all about the run. The Thundering Herd are running the ball on 68.5% of their plays in Sun Belt action so far. I don't expect them to have much success at all.

These two defenses are #2 and #4 in success rate allowed. This total is set too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Ohio Redhawks have changed the way they play now that Aveon Smith is under center. Miami has slowed their tempo down to a crawl. They are using 33 seconds between snaps in the MAC contests. Miami is running the ball on 68.2% of their offensive plays. That plays to the strength of the Western Michigan defense, which ranks 19th at PFF in rushing defense grade. 

Western Michigan's offense is terrible. They haven't found a quarterback who is even decent all season. Miami is beatable through the air, but the Redhawks have been excellent against the run all season. Western Michigan is playing at a below average pace as well.

Miami has had two of their last four games finish at 31 points or lower. The Redhawks should control the ball here and use the clock a bunch. I think this is a sloppy lower scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The weather here should be a big factor. An average of three major weather forecasting sites is calling for 18-20 mph sustained winds with gusts of 30-35 mph during this contest. That is enough wind to change the way the game is played.

Spencer Sanders was playing banged up against TCU. He is tough and put in a strong effort, but he wasn't nearly as accurate later in the game. It is his throwing arm which is concerning. Oklahoma State's rushing attack is 76th in rushing play success rate. Texas is 10th in rushing play success rate allowed on defense. If Sanders isn't healthy and the wind is blowing this hard, the Oklahoma State offense is in a far less than ideal situation.

The Texas offense is very good. Texas though should have a bit different looking offense with this kind of weather conditions. Ewers isn't likely to be able to air it out deep as much as normal. That helps the Oklahoma State defense a bit. 

Wind games have consistently gone under in the long term especially wind games of this extreme. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Wake Forest's defense has quietly been a lot better this year. New defensive coordinator Brad Lambert has done a great job with improving this unit. Wake Forest is up to 41st in success rate allowed. Here, they are up against a one dimensional Boston College offense.

Boston College ranks dead last in the nation in yards per carry on offense. The Boston College offensive line is awful. They are bad in run blocking and pass protection. I don't expect Phil Jurkovec to have much time to throw it in this one. Wake Forest will bring the heat and get Boston College behind the chains in this contest.

Wake Forest is a good offense, and they do play fast. The Demon Deacons only rank 100th in explosiveness on offense though, so they aren't getting as many big gainers this season. I think Jeff Hafley is a good defensive mind, and the BC defense should have a good scheme ready to at least slow down Wake somewhat. Boston College had a bye week before this game to get prepared.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Ohio Bobcats and Northern Illinois Huskies have the two best quarterbacks in the MAC in Rourke and Lombardi. 

Ohio's passing attack has been fantastic with Rourke leading the way this year. Ohio is averaging 6.39 yards per play overall. They are 31st in the nation in passing play success rate. The Bobcats have 17 plays of 30 yards or more this season. In MAC play, Ohio is first in total offense so far this season. 

Northern Illinois has a terrible pass defense. The Huskies are 129th out of 131 teams in the country in opponent QBR. They have already allowed 18 plays of 30 yards or more. 

Rocky Lombardi is back from injury, and that makes this Northern Illinois offense dangerous. Lombardi is a top 10 quarterback in PFF grade this year. Northern Illinois was good offensively without him, but they are excellent offensively with him on the field. 

Ohio's defense is 130th out of 131 teams in the country in yards per play allowed (7.02). I see no reason to believe they'll stop Northern Illinois in this one.

A back and forth game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UAB Blazers want to run the ball early and often. It is very rare to see a UAB total set this high. UAB had a high total against a terrible Charlotte defense last week, and that game stayed under the total by 11 points. 

UAB ranks 124th out of 131 teams in the country in tempo. The Blazers have ran the ball on 65% of their offensive snaps on the season. Western Kentucky is 22nd in the nation in ypc allowed. I do think UAB will have success running here since W Kentucky hasn't faced good running teams yet, but UAB will take a quite a while to move down the field. If they are settling for some field goals it will help the under a lot.

Western Kentucky's offense is good, but they aren't nearly as good as they were a year ago with Bailey Zappe and company. The Hilltoppers offense ranks 42nd in success rate in the country. UAB is easily the best secondary W Kentucky has played so far this year. UAB is 3rd in opponent QBR allowed.

Both defenses have done well with not giving up big plays. UAB has allowed only 21 plays of 20 yards or more this season. W Kentucky has only allowed 24 plays of 30 yards or more. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers are two very talented defensive teams. Boston was the best defense in the NBA last year. I see no reason to expect them to be worse on defense this year. The Celtics have length and athleticism all over the floor.

The 76ers have an elite shot blocker down low in Embiid. P.J. Tucker is a difference maker on the defensive end as well. I expect the 76ers to do a much better than average time keeping opponents out of the lane. If the Celtics are nailing a ton of 3's here it could hurt a lot, but overall I see Boston as an inconsistent long range shooting team.

The pace should be about average in this one. The last five meetings between these two teams have seen 4 of those games finish at 211 points or lower. 

Early season unders have done very well in the NBA in the long run. That has been especially true in conference and divisional matchups.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Seattle Seahawks have been far better on offense than anyone expected they would be. Geno Smith's tremendous play at quarterback is a big reason for the success of the Seattle offense. Geno Smith grades out as the #1 quarterback in terms of PFF rating so far this year in the NFL. Of course he isn't the best QB in the league, but he is a lot better than expected. He has a very good group of wide receivers who should be able to get open against a questionable Arizona secondary. Seattle is second in the NFL in yards per play so far this year behind only the Buffalo Bills.

As good as the Seattle offense has been, the Seahawks defense is the worst in the NFL. Seattle is dead last in YPP allowed at 6.6. Arizona has struggled offensively in their last three games, but they have played three quality defenses. The Seattle defense is a much weaker unit. I expect Kyler Murray to have a good game in this one.

I expect both quarterbacks to have a big game against defenses who give up too many explosive plays.

Take the over.