*4 Star CFB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The UMass Minutemen are a team that have made me a lot of money with the 'over' so far this year. UMass has had tons of trouble scoring the past few seasons, but they got a new quarterback this year and he has sparked the team in a big way. Blake Frohnapfel was stuck behind Rakeem Cato at Marshall the last couple years, but now he is thriving at UMass. With him at the helm, the Minutemen are killing teams through the air. Eastern Michigan's defense is absolutely atrocious, and UMass will likely put up 40 points or more. Eastern Michigan's offense got a spark from a freshman quarterback last week, and UMass' defense is really bad. This number isn't terribly high, and I see the potential for huge plays back and forth all the way through this one. Really bad defenses and improving offenses. 

The over is 4-0 in E. Michigan's last 4 following an ATS win. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after gaining 200 yards or more on the ground. The over is 5-0-1 in UMass' last 6 games. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 games after gaining 450 yards or more last game. The over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 on turf. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 following an ATS win. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 conference games. A 30-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star CFB MAC Total* The Bowling Green Falcons have a new offensive system under Coach Dino Babers this year. The Falcons are doing great on offense even without starting quarterback Matt Johnson. Why have they been disappointing overall? Bowling Green went from having the best defense in the MAC, to having one of the worst defenses in the entire nation. Western Michigan has a good young quarterback and a good young running back. The Broncos have scored 34 points or more in four of their six games so far this year. Western Michigan has tons of defensive issues, so Bowling Green should put up a bunch. A back and forth high scoring affair. Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB Early Bird Special* The UCF Knights and Tulane Green Wave are two teams with some severe issues on the offensive end. UCF has an inconsistent quarterback in Justin Holman. Tulane will likely start Nick Montana for a second straight week with starting quarterback Tanner Lee injured. In their last two games, Tulane has put up 6 points and 12 points. The Tulane defense is the reason this team was so improved last year, and they are still solid this year. UCF's defense is always underrated under Coach O'Leary. Neither of these teams like to play fast, so I don't expect very many possessions in this game. This total is set rather low, but it should be even lower.

The under is 4-0 in Tulane's last 4 after gaining 170 passing yards or less last game. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after scoring less than 20 points in their last game. The under is 4-0 in UCF's last 4 conference games. The under is 4-0 in the Knights last 4 after giving up 170 yards or less through the air last game. A 16-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star Big 12 Total Value* The West Virginia Mountaineers and Baylor Bears have scored 115 and 133 points the last two years when they have squared off. They might not score that many points this time around, but I think they'll score a bunch. Both teams air it out early and often, and Clint Trickett is playing some amazing football right now. We know Bryce Petty and the Bears offense can score in a hurry, but so can West Virginia. I think both teams have a good chance to put up 40 plus points here. A back and forth game with lots of quick scores. The total is high, but not high enough. Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB TGIF Total DOMINATION* The Houston Cougars and Temple Owls meet Friday night in Houston. On paper, both of these defenses look solid, but when you look at who they have played you'll see the whole story. Temple's opponents have been Vanderbilt, Navy, Delaware State, Tulsa, and UConn. Only Navy has a decent offense, and that is a triple option attack. Houston's opponents have been UTSA, Grambling, BYU, UNLV, UCF, and Memphis. Only BYU and Memphis have decent offenses there, and those two put up 33 and 24 points on the Cougars. P.J. Walker is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the nation and I see him making plays in this one against an overrated Houston defense. The Cougars will probably play two quarterbacks here (Ward and O'Korn) and the Cougars like to play fast and keep the tempo moving. The over is the play at this low level. I had this line set at 55 points myself. Take the over. 

*3 Star Sunday Night Football CASH* The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line is starting to get healthier, and that should help this offense. Chip Kelly's offense is innovative and it has shown to be very good in the past, but this year the Eagles haven't gotten it going yet. Look for Nick Foles and the Philly receivers to get in sync this week. McCoy has been a big disappointment in the backfield, but he has a good past against the Giants defense. Eli Manning has been playing some really good football of late. Manning is getting rid of the football far quicker than he has in the past, and that's working in a big way. This looks like a back and forth high scoring game all the way. Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Chicago Bears and Atlanta Falcons meet in the Georgia Dome on Sunday afternoon. Both of these teams come in with lots of offensive weapons and a quarterback who can sling it around. The two defenses have some major problems in the secondary. Chicago is banged up badly in the secondary, and Matt Ryan is amazing at home. The Falcons receivers are as good as anyone in the league. The Falcons don't have a good pass rush, and without a strong pass rush, Jay Cutler is likely to pick apart this Atlanta secondary. This is a game where I expect a lot of big play touchdowns, so both teams should get the ball a lot of times here. 

The over is 6-0 in the Bears last 6 vs. the NFC. The over is 5-0 in Chicago's last 5 after gaining 250 passing yards or more last game. The over is 4-0 in the Bears last 4 after running for 90 yards or less. The over is 5-0 in Atlanta's last 5 after gaining 350 yards or more last game. The over is 4-0 in the Falcons last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The over is 6-0 in Atlanta's last 6 as a home favorite. A 30-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL Totals TKO* The Miami Dolphins and Green Bay Packers both like to get off a lot of snaps. There should be plenty of no huddle offense and scoring opportunities in this game. Green Bay's defense has really disappointed this year, and I think they can make just about any quarterback look good. The Dolphins have an impressive running game. Green Bay's offense wasn't too good in the first couple weeks, but Aaron Rodgers has gotten it going of late. Rodgers should be able to carve up a mediocre Dolphins secondary. The Green Bay offense is much more impressive now that it has balance with Lacy in the run game. Plenty of points here. Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB Late Night BAILOUT* The Nevada Wolf Pack played in a very high scoring game last week. The fact that they played an abnormally high scoring game last week sets up a lot of value on the under in this game. I suspect this line would have been in the upper 50's or about 60 before last weekend. Both Nevada and Colorado State take their time between snaps, so there won't be much hurry up offense in this game. The Wolf Pack defense is much improved from last year. Both teams will keep it on the ground quite a bit here as well. This number is several points too high.

The under is 8-0 in Nevada's last 8 following a loss. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 after allowing more than 280 passing yards last game. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following an ATS loss. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after giving up 200 yards or more on the ground. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after gaining 280 passing yards or more on offense last game. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A 37-0 angle. Take the under.  

*4 Star CFB Total Value* These are two teams that are a total mess on the offensive side of the ball. Neither one is able to put together a consistent drive, and they both have tons of quarterback problems. FIU is starting to get more respectable as a team because their defense is playing well. Larry Coker always puts a solid defense on the field. This sets up as one of those really ugly games that no one wants to watch. The winner here might finish in the teens. Take the under. *Note- I would play the under for 4 stars down to 41 and 3 stars if the number is lower than that. Thank you.* 

*3 Star Oregon/UCLA Total DOMINATION* Both Oregon and UCLA were upset at home as double digit favorites last week. This game would have been even bigger had they won last week, but since the playoff system is in place now both teams still have a chance if they win out. These are two fast-paced offenses that do it with big plays. Big plays equal a lot of quick scores and that can lead to some real shootouts. These defenses are both far worse than they were a year ago. Marcus Mariota and Brett Hundley should have some big numbers in this contest. High scoring tight game here. Take the over. 

*4 Star Baylor/TCU Total CASH* The TCU Horned Frogs are known for their defense, but they are unbeaten right now because of their offense. The defense is still solid, but TCU's offense is no longer a liability. Even with their offense being weak last year, TCU lost 41-38 against Baylor in a back and forth game. Baylor kept things under wraps last week against Texas, but the Bears offense will be high-octane again Saturday. TCU has gotten a huge boost from Trevone Boykin's improved play. TCU is also playing at a much faster tempo this year than they have in the past. Both teams should get the ball plenty of times here. Lots of scoring chances.

The over is 5-0 in TCU's last 5 after gaining 450 yards or more last game. The over is 12-1 in Baylor's last 13 games after giving up 20 points or less last game. A 17-1 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB Hidden GEM Total* The NC State Wolfpack offense was tremendous a couple weeks ago against Florida State, but they were shut out and completely embarrassed last week in a loss to Clemson. They'll find things much easier going in this one against a mediocre Boston College defense. The Eagles offense has gotten a major spark from Tyler Murphy and the running game. NC State's defense isn't any good, and they've been routinely allowing 40 plus points. It's a battle of two former Florida quarterbacks (the Gators probably want them back now), and I expect both quarterbacks to play well here. 

The over is 5-0 in BC's last 5 games following an ATS loss. The over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 conference games. The over is 7-0 in NC State's last 7 following an ATS loss. A 16-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB Totals TKO* The Army Black Knights and Rice Owls meet in a game between two teams that love to run the football. Army virtually never throws the ball, and Rice only throws it occasionally. While I do expect both teams to gain quite a few yards in this one, with the clock ticking away constantly it will be hard for them to get into the 60's. I made this total 55 points, so I see several points worth of value. Without quick scores, a total in the 60's is typically not attainable. Look for long drives that eat up a bunch of time to make it difficult for these two to reach this lofty number. Take the under here. 

*4 Star CFB Friday Night Lights CASH* The New Mexico Lobos have one of the worst defenses in the nation. That's why when I saw a total of 46 points in this game, I jumped on the over immediately. San Diego State has a freshman quarterback starting here, and I know he didn't play well in his first start, but he should look better against this New Mexico defense. Also, Pumphrey and company should rack up a bunch of yards on the ground against New Mexico. On the other side, the Lobos are improving as an offense. This is a team that gives defenses fits because of their option and pistol looks on offense. Bob Davie's team can run the football effectively against most squads. The final last year was 35-30 when these two met. It might be lower this time around, but I think this game still tops 50 points. The over is 11-5 in New Mexico's last 16 games overall. Take the over. 

**Added note- This line has moved all over the place throughout the week after I selected it early in the week. I would suggest this as a 4 star play up to 50 points and a 3 star play up to 52 points. Thank you.**

*5 Star NCAA FB Thursday TOP Play* The UCF Knights lost a lot when Blake Bortles and Storm Johnson went pro after last season. Not surprisingly, their offensive numbers have suffered in a big way. They still haven't found a reliable option at either quarterback or running back. UCF does continue to play terrific defense though, and they slow the game down by running the ball a lot and bleeding the clock in between plays. BYU is a totally different team without Taysom Hill at quarterback. Hill is out for the year with after suffering a leg injury last week. I expect that to make the BYU offense much more conservative. I also don't believe BYU will play as fast without their leader under center. UCF has played in several sloppy low scoring games already this year, and BYU is very capable of doing the same without their star offensive player. I had this total projected at 42 points, so I'm seeing a good amount of value here. Look for a defensive battle all the way. The under is 5-0 in BYU's last 5 Thursday games. The under is 5-1 in their last 6 road games. Take the under big! 

**Note- This line has moved in a big way since I selected it. I recommend this as a 5 star play down to 45.5 and as a 4 star play down to 44, I would play for 3 stars down to 43. Thank you. **

*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Jacksonville Jaguars defense wasn't a huge problem last year, but this year they are arguably the worst in the league. Ben Roethlisberger is playing well in this new Steelers offense, and they are getting a good running game this year as well. Jacksonville hasn't been slowing anyone down, and I don't think they'll slow the Steelers either. Blake Bortles is clearly a big upgrade for the Jaguars at the quarterback spot. Bortles is throwing it well and moving this team up and down the field. This Pittsburgh defense is far weaker than they were a few seasons ago. Both teams should get plenty of scoring chances in this game.

The over is 5-0 in the Steelers last 5 after allowing 90 rushing yards or less. The over is 7-0 in the Steelers last 7 games vs. a team averaging less than 75 yards per game on the ground. The over is 4-0 in the Steelers last 4 following a loss. The over is 4-0 in the Jags last 4. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 after allowing more than 250 passing yards last game. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following an ATS loss. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following a SU loss. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss by 14 points or more. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 in Week Five. A 42-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB Late Night BAILOUT* When Washington State and Cal meet there are two things that are going to happen: there are going to be a ton of passing plays, and they are going to be a bunch of points. I don't like taking totals that are this high, but I do think this one should be even higher. I made this total 82 points. Jared Goff is a very underrated quarterback, and this Cal offense is among the best in the nation. Connor Halliday can air it out with the best of them, and this Cal defense is awful against the pass. Last year's game finished at 66 points, and that was with Cal blowing a ton of scoring opportunities. Cal is much better this year, and this game should be a close one. Watch the scoreboard light up in this contest.

The over is 3-0-1 in Washington State's last 4 October games. The over is 4-0-1 in Cal's last 5 after allowing 450 yards or more. The over is 4-0 in Washington State's last 4 after gaining 450 yards or more. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. A 16-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB SEC Total* The Kentucky Wildcats defense has impressed me this year. Kentucky did a great job defensively against an improving Florida offense, and they didn't allow Vanderbilt to score an offensive point last weekend. South Carolina's defense is much improved in recent weeks, and Kentucky still has a lot of room for improvement on offense. Another key factor in this game will be the weather. Wind gusts of 25 mph are expected during this game, which should lead to problems for the passing games. Expect a lot more running plays which means the clock will just keep ticking. The under is 10-3 in Kentucky's last 13 home games. Take the under. 

*4 Star Big 10 Total* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights running game isn't very good now without Paul James. He was their star running back and he's out with an injury. Michigan's defense hasn't been the reason for their problems this year. In fact, Michigan ranks ninth in the nation in total defense. Rutgers has a strong defensive front seven, and Michigan has no passing game to take advantage of Rutgers' weakness in the secondary. The weather here is expected to be rainy and windy, which is a big boost for the under. I expect a very sloppy low scoring game Saturday night. Take the under. 

*5 Star Alabama/Ole Miss TOP Total* The Alabama Crimson Tide defense is still elite. Alabama has totally dominated against the Ole Miss offense in recent years, and I think they'll fare very well against them again in this one. Bo Wallace is far too turnover prone, and he makes way too many bad decisions against a swarming defense like Alabama. The Rebels have scored a grand total of 21 points in their last three games against Alabama. Last year, Alabama pitched a shutout against Ole Miss. The Rebels defense is tremendous this year as well. While Blake Sims has been very good so far this year, this will be his toughest test thus far. The Rebels secondary hits hard and flies around the field. I see a low scoring game all the way here as both defenses flex their muscles. Take the under big! 

*5 Star CFB TOP Total of the Month* The Air Force Falcons and Navy Midshipmen both run the triple option. What does that mean? It means that both of these teams practice against the triple option on defense every single day. That's a huge advantage for the defenses in this game. The under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings between these teams, and the familiarity with the offense is absolutely the reason why. The main advantage of running a triple option offense is that most defenses aren't well prepared to defend it. That is not the case this weekend. Both teams will run it almost every down, which keeps the clock ticking away. I made the total on this game 48 points, so more than a touchdown lower than this line. 

The under is 6-0 in Navy's last 6 after allowing 450 yards or more last game. The under is 6-0 in Navy's last 6 after throwing for 170 yards or less. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after gaining 450 yards or more. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 2-0 in the last 2 games between these teams. A 23-0 angle. Take the under big! 

*3 Star Stanford/Notre Dame Total* The Stanford Cardinal have the number one ranked defense in the nation. They are first in the nation at defending the pass. Notre Dame's offense is totally reliant on throwing the football right now. The Fighting Irish have no running game and they won't be able to run it against Stanford. The Stanford offense has taken a definite step backward without any elite running back in their stable this year. Notre Dame's defense has been very solid this year. This game will be played in windy conditions that make it tougher to throw which helps the under a lot here. Take the under in this one. 

*3 Star NCAA FB Early Bird Special* The Miami (Ohio) Redhawks are a much better team than they were a year ago. Miami has the nation's longest losing streak at 21 games, but they have a real shot to snap that losing streak on Saturday. UMass' secondary is atrocious, and Miami's Andrew Hendrix is a quality quarterback. Chuck Martin is the new coach at Miami and he brings a much better offensive philosophy. UMass' defense is still terrible, but their passing game has been good this year as well. They have put up 38 points or more twice this year. I think this one gets into the 60's. 

The over is 4-0 in UMass' last 4. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after gaining 450 yards or more last game. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 following a loss. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after running for 100 yards or less last game. A 17-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MAC Total Value* The Akron Zips and Eastern Michigan Eagles meet Saturday in Akron. The weather will be a factor here as showers and strong winds are expected in Akron on Saturday afternoon. Eastern Michigan's offense is dreadfully terrible. The Eagles "passing attack" is averaging just barely more than 3 yards per passing attempt this year, which is downright awful. Akron's defense has shown some major improvement this year, and the Eagles should struggle to score. Terry Bowden has never been one to run it up a great deal, so I think Akron is happy with a comfortable win here. I had this number at 45 points. Take the under. 

*3 Star Sunday Night Football CASH* The Dallas Cowboys defense has looked slightly better than expected so far this year, but I believe that might be largely because of the teams they have played against. The 49ers offense has struggled this year, and the Titans and Rams offenses aren't very good. New Orleans' offense is definitely one of the best in the league, and the Saints are going to test the Cowboys in a big way. I don't think the Dallas defense will be able to hold their own against this group. New Orleans puts up a big number. The Cowboys have some great balance on offense right now, and the Saints defense has looked shaky. I see a back and forth affair with both offenses lighting up the scoreboard. Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* Teddy Bridgewater is the new starting quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings after the injury to Matt Cassel. Bridgewater should end up being a good quarterback, but I think the Vikings need to keep the playbook pretty vanilla for him early in his career. The Vikings aren't nearly as good of a team without their main star in Adrian Peterson and now opposing teams can really get after the quarterback without the big running threat in Minnesota. Minnesota's defense is improving fast with Mike Zimmer in as the team's new coach. Zimmer is a mastermind on the defensive side of the ball, and I love the way he has this team playing. They did very well last week against a Saints offense that is fantastic. This game will be played outdoors, which limits Matt Ryan's effectiveness. 

The under is 7-1 in the Falcons last 8 games after scoring 30 points or more last game. The under is 4-0 in the Vikings last 4 games. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A 15-1 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Totals TKO* The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been awful this year. San Diego's offense is likely to have a field day here. Phillip Rivers is really playing well right now, and the Chargers have a plethora of weapons for Rivers to get the ball to on the outside. Blake Bortles came in and helped the Jaguars offense get moving last week. San Diego's defense isn't bad, but they aren't an elite unit. I expect Bortles to help the Jaguars offense quite a bit right away. Both teams should have plenty of opportunities to put the ball in the end zone here. A very reasonable number here. Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Houston Texans and Buffalo Bills are both teams that are led by their strong defenses. Buffalo used to have a weak defense, but they have corrected that problem. It starts with a tremendous defensive line led by Mario Williams and Marcell Dareus. All three of the Bills games so far this year have stayed under the total, and that includes their season opener with Chicago that went into overtime. The Texans defense is strong as well. Houston is without Clowney, but they still have Watt, Cushing, and a secondary full of very good players. Both offenses have question marks at the quarterback spot and they struggle to put together long drives. I like the defenses to have the upper hand in this one.

The under is 4-0 in the Bills last 4 September games. The under is 4-0 in the Texans last 4 following an ATS loss. The under is 4-0 in the Texans last 4 following an ATS defeat. A 12-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star Duke/Miami Total* The Miami Hurricanes and Duke Blue Devils have had tons of offensive fireworks the last two times they have played each other, and I see no reason to expect anything different this time. Duke's offense isn't missing a beat this year with Boone and Sirk at quarterback. They are improved in the backfield as well. Miami's defense has some serious problems and that certainly showed up last week when they allowed 41 points against a one-dimensional Nebraska offense. Miami has a freshman quarterback, but he's able to have some pretty solid success thanks to the parts around him. The Hurricanes have a star in Duke Johnson at running back, and the play makers at wide receiver are among the best in the nation. I set this total at 68 points. Take the over. 

*3 Star Missouri/South Carolina Total DOMINATION* The South Carolina Gamecocks secondary has some major problems this year. We saw that not only against Texas A&M, but also against East Carolina and even Vanderbilt at times. Maty Mauk is a far better player than most believe, and he should be able to lead this Tigers offense up and down the field. South Carolina's offensive line will have a big advantage here, and the Gamecocks should run right up and down the field against a Missouri defense that was torched by Indiana last week and struggled against Toledo earlier this year. I also expect this to be a very close game, and there is always a chance we get helped by overtime. The over is 7-0 in Missouri's last 7 games following a game where they had zero turnovers. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 games on grass. An 11-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB Under Radar Total* The UTSA Roadrunners play tremendous defense under the leadership of Larry Coker. Coker is one of the most underrated coaches in the nation. This team totally shut down a very good Houston offense in week one. They were overmatched last game against Oklahoma State, but they'll matchup just fine against Florida Atlantic. The Owls defense is the strength of their team as well. Both of these teams like to play slowly and limit possessions, which is a big help when betting the under. I see very few big plays in this one. Look for long drives and field goals throughout this contest. Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Hidden GEM Total* The Idaho Vandals are quietly becoming a pretty good offensive team. Paul Petrino is a good offensive mind, and he has a solid freshman quarterback in Linehan. Idaho should be able to score points on everyone on their schedule this year, but their issues are on the defensive side of the football. The Vandals defense is shredded to pieces on a weekly basis. South Alabama's offense has had a hard time in their last couple games, but a matchup with the Idaho defense should help fix their problems in a hurry. Idaho hasn't allowed less than 36 points in a game yet this year. Plenty of points to go around in this one. 

The over is 4-0 in Idaho's last 4 home games. The over is 7-0 in their last 7 on turf. The over is 6-0 in Idaho's last 6 conference games. A 17-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star CFB Mismatch Total* The Auburn Tigers like to play fast, and everyone knows that. Auburn will relish the opportunity to fix some of their offensive problems from their last game against Kansas State. Coach Malzahn is an offensive guru, and I know he had to be frustrated by the Tigers lack of efficiency on offense that game. Louisiana Tech's defense will be totally outclassed, and Auburn isn't going to let off the gas early in this one. Auburn could certainly put up 50 points by themselves in this one and it wouldn't be a surprise to me. Louisiana Tech's offense is much improved with Sokol at QB and lots of depth at running back. I expect them to be able to score some on an average Tigers defense. I lined this one at 68 points. Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB Totals Takedown* The Buffalo Bulls lost Khalil Mack after last year. He might have been the single most dominant defensive player in the nation last year. Not surprisingly, the Bulls defense has taken a major step backward this year. Miami (OH) didn't win a game last year, and they haven't won this year so far. Still, the Redhawks are clearly a much better team this year. The reason they have gotten much better is their offensive improvements. Hendrix is their quarterback and he used to be at Notre Dame. Chuck Martin is the new head coach and he worked with Hendrix in the past. Miami has been moving the ball much better so far this year. I made this line 62 points. Take the over. 

*4 Star MAC Total* The Bowling Green Falcons are a team I've done well with for 'over' plays this season. Dino Babers has implemented a new system for Bowling Green. The Falcons are playing extremely fast and scoring tons of points. The problem for them is they are also giving up loads of points. I never expected the Bowling Green defense to be this bad after being a strong unit in the past couple years, but for the purpose of playing overs that is an added benefit. UMass is a bad team in general, and they have given up tons of points to poor offenses already this year (Colorado, Vanderbilt, etc). Bowling Green likely puts up a really big number here. UMass is better on offense this year, and everyone has moved the ball easily on BG's defense. Take the over.

**Please note this line has moved in a big way since I selected this game on Tuesday- I would play the over for 4 stars up to 66 points and for 3 stars up to 71 points. Thank you.**

*4 Star Big 10 Totals TKO* The Indiana Hoosiers picked up a stunning road win at Missouri last week. That win certainly shocked me, and I think the Hoosiers played Missouri at the right time since they caught the Tigers looking ahead to South Carolina. Indiana's defense is among the worst in the nation. They were ripped for 39 first downs in a loss to Bowling Green. The Falcons had a backup quarterback playing in that game. Maryland's defense has been really disappointing this year as well, and injuries are costing them in a big way. Look for Diggs and the rest of the Terrapins wide receivers to have a field day against Indiana's pass defense. Indiana has play makers at RB and WR and they'll have a big day too. I think this game gets to the mid 70's. Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB Rutgers/Tulane Total* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights have their top two running backs injured right now. Gary Nova isn't a very good quarterback, and without James or Huggins in the backfield at tailback this offense isn't any good. Rutgers does have a strong front seven on defense though, and I think they'll make it really tough for Tulane to move the football. Tulane's defense is better than most believe, and the Green Wave have played in a lot of low scoring games in the past two seasons. My numbers made this total 49 points, so I see solid value on this game. Look for a sloppy performance from the two offenses. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Anthony Swarzak isn't a good starting pitcher. The Twins have plugged him into a starting spot since they are badly in need of a starter. Swarzak has a 5.83 ERA in his career against Detroit, and the Tigers bats should get after him in a big way in a game that means a whole lot to them. Detroit's lineup is arguably the best in the majors, and they lit him up for 6 runs a couple weeks ago. Rick Porcello has struggled down the stretch. Porcello has given up at least 7 hits in six straight games. The Tigers bullpen isn't any good either, so once they get into the game the Twins will get more scoring opportunities. This total is set too low. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Tuesday Total DOMINATION* The Miami Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies meet in a game where both teams have little to play for. Having nothing to play for hasn't stopped Cole Hamels from having an amazing year though. Hamels has been totally dominating for the last few months. For the season, he has a spectacular road ERA of 1.76. Hamels has a career ERA of 2.55 when pitching in Miami (8 starts). Henderson Alvarez is great at home as well. Alvarez has a1.75 ERA at home this year. In his career, Alvarez has a 1.99 ERA against the Phillies (6 starts). Stanton is out of the lineup so the Marlins lineup isn't very good right now. The Phillies have struggled to score all year.

The under is 10-1 in Hamels last 11 games against the Marlins. The under is 7-0 in his last 7 starts in Miami. A 17-1 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Texas Rangers and Houston Astros meet Monday night in Texas. Both of these lineups are awful right now. Texas was putting up a run or two on a nightly basis for a long time before heating up on their west coast swing last week. Nick Tropeano was pretty good in the minors and the Rangers have never seen him before. Derek Holland is pitching lights out since rejoining the Rangers a few weeks ago. Holland has elite stuff. The Astros lineup was weak early this year, and it's much weaker now due to injuries. The temperatures have cooled off in Texas so the ball won't fly nearly as well. Take the under here. 

*3 Star NFL Total PERFECTION* The Kansas City Chiefs offense can't seem to get on track. They haven't faced an elite defense this year, but they still have had trouble moving the ball. Jamaal Charles may play here, but he is certainly less than 100 percent with a high ankle sprain. The Dolphins defense has been great this year. Even last week when the team allowed quite a few points against Buffalo, those points were largely scored because of offensive turnovers or special teams plays. The defense was very good. I see the Chiefs defense as a solid unit, especially in the front seven. I'm not sure the Dolphins have the type of team to air it out all game long. I see lots of running in this one, which means a clock that keeps on ticking. 

The under is 6-0 in the Chiefs last 6 September games. The under is 4-0-1 in the Dolphins last 5 following a loss. The under is 4-0 in Miami's last 4 after gaining 90 yards or less on the ground. A 14-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Arizona Cardinals will start Drew Stanton in this game. That should mean a more vanilla offense for the Cardinals this weekend. More running the football and safe short passes are in store. The 49ers haven't played well so far this year, but it hasn't been the defense that has been disappointing. In fact, the defense has played very well in both games. Colin Kaepernick is struggling badly, and I don't see him turning it around against a very good Cardinals defense. This Arizona front seven is tremendous, and they have ball hawks like Patrick Peterson and Tyronn Mathieu in the secondary. I think the defenses dominate throughout this game. 

The under is 4-0 in the 49ers last 4 road games. The under is 4-0 in the Cards last 4 after allowing less than 90 rushing yards. The under is 5-0 in the Cardinals last 5 September games. A 13-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Lions/Packers Totals CASH* The Detroit Lions have some real issues in the secondary. You better believe Aaron Rodgers is going to spot those weaknesses and take advantage of them on a consistent basis in this one. The Green Bay defense has plenty of problems of their own, and Matt Stafford looks very comfortable in the Lions new offense. Detroit is a really dangerous offense on their home turf. It's hard to imagine either team falling short of the upper 20's in this game. It will be a long day for these defenses. Take the over in this NFC clash.

*3 Star NFL Total Value* The Philadelphia Eagles are going to get their points. Chip Kelly's offense is ultra dynamic with McCoy in the backfield and Foles airing it out. The Redskins defense may be a bit better this year, but they haven't faced a good offense yet. They will in this one, and they'll give up a lot of points. Washington's offense has been running great with Kirk Cousins at quarterback, and at least for now he seems like the better option at QB. The Redskins have a good running game and lots of weapons on the outside. This Eagles defense showed their weaknesses in a big way last Monday night in Indianapolis. Take the over. 

*4 Star CFB Hidden GEM Total* New Mexico vs. New Mexico State is a solid intrastate rivalry game. These two teams have one thing in common: neither of them are good at all defensively. Both teams give up huge chunks of yardage on a consistent basis. New Mexico rolled up 66 points and 608 yards of offense last year. New Mexico State didn't cash in nearly as often with 17 points, but they did have 451 yards. The Aggies offense looks significantly better so far this year. It's hard to imagine either defense getting many stops in this game. Look for the scoreboard to light up in a big way here.

The over is 5-0 in the Lobos last 5 September games. The over is 9-1 in their last 10 after allowing 200 yards or more on the ground last game. The over is 5-0 in New Mexico State's last 5 after allowing 170 passing yards or less last game. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after gaining 280 yards or more through the air. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after rushing for 100 yards or less. A 27-1 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA FB Totals TKO* The Illinois Fighting Illini defense allowed 35.4 points per game last year, and they aren't any better this year. Texas State has an underrated quarterback in Tyler Jones. The Bobcats will be able to move the football consistently in this game. On the other side, Illinois' offense has improved with Wes Lunt under center. The Texas State defense is much weaker this year, and I think Illinois' strong offensive front will dominate in the trenches. The Fighting Illini offense has been good this year, and I see them putting up a big number in this game. The Fighting Illini will play fast and put pressure on Texas State right from the start. Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies meet Saturday afternoon at Coors Field. Day games at Coors Field have been notorious for high scoring affairs for a very long time. The ball travels extremely well here during the day. Trevor Cahill has been struggling in his last few starts. He has a 6.59 ERA in his last 3 outings. This isn't the place you want to go when you are struggling. Eddie Butler starts for the Rockies and while he has some potential in the long run, his minor league numbers suggest he isn't ready for the big leagues just yet. Take a look at the recent scores between these two teams when they meet at Coors Field. In the last four meetings, the scores have been 16-8, 12-7, 7-6, and 15-3. A total of 11 looks very scary on the surface, but these teams have been doing it consistently. The Rockies have the worst pen in the league, and Arizona is 23rd out of 30 teams. When the bullpens come into the game, there will be even more scoring opportunities. 

The over is 4-0 in the DBacks last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in the Rockies last 4 home games. The over is 4-0 in the Rockies last 4 vs. the NL West. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a right-handed starter. A 16-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star CFB Total DOMINATION* The BYU Cougars and Virginia Cavs both have terrific defenses. In their matchup last year, neither team was able to get out of the teens. A similar game wouldn't surprise me at all on Saturday afternoon. This Virginia defense has shown how good they are against both UCLA and Louisville this season. BYU's defense is very talented, and the Cougars are always very tough to score against on their home field. The defense is the strength of both teams. Look for Virginia's defense to slow down Taysom Hill, and Virginia's offense is too one-dimensional to be able to have much success against a high quality offense. Take the under. 

*5 Star Florida/Alabama TOP Play Total* The Florida Gators offense should be better under Kurt Roper this year, but I'm not convinced they'll be far better right away against elite defenses. Alabama's defense didn't look great in their season opener against West Virginia, but they were missing leader Trey DePriest at the linebacker spot. In addition, Alabama didn't seem to be terribly interested in that season opener. It was as if they overlooked West Virginia. They aren't going to overlook Florida. This Alabama defense is one of the top five defenses in the country, and I don't see Florida having much success. Florida's defense was solid all of last year despite their horrible record. The Gators defense is very good again this year. Alabama has plenty of question marks at the quarterback spot, and the Gators are going to load up the box in this one. Nick Saban's teams always use up the clock and play slowly. The defenses should have the advantage all the way here. Take the under big! 

*4 Star Auburn/Kansas State Totals CASH* Bill Snyder is a very smart man. Snyder is one of the best coaches in the country, and he absolutely knows that it wouldn't be wise for his Kansas State team to get into an up and down affair with Auburn. The Tigers have far more playmakers and are much more likely to win if it is a high scoring game. Just like they did last year against Baylor, I look for Kansas State to try to milk the clock as much as they can and keep the ball away from Nick Marshall and company. The Auburn defense is a little better than they were a year ago, and Kansas State's offense hasn't impressed me thus far. This is a total that is set too high. I think this one should be set in the high 50's, so plenty of value on this line for me. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Kerwin Danley is behind the dish in this one and the under is 39-9-3 in his last 51 behind the plate. The Oakland A's are in a horrible slump right now. Oakland is fighting hard to even find their way to the playoffs after dominating the AL West for the majority of the year. Oakland's offense has been the primary problem. Derek Holland pitches for the Texas Rangers in this one, and he's been great against Oakland in his career. Holland has been amazing in his only 3 outings of the year this year since returning from an injury. Jeff Samardzija has been very good all year, and the Texas Rangers offense is terrible right now. I see a very low scoring game here.

The under is 4-0 in the Rangers last 4 road games vs. a righty. The under is 5-0-2 in Holland's last 7 games as an underdog. The under is 3-0-2 in his last 5 as a road dog. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in Oakland's last 4 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The under is 6-0 in Danley's last 6 Wednesday games behind the plate. A 25-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT Total* Jake Peavy and Josh Collmenter have both been dealing of late. Peavy has a 2.29 ERA since joining the Giants, and he hasn't allowed more than three runs in any of his last seven starts. Collmenter has a 0.93 ERA in his last three starts. He has a 3.31 ERA against San Francisco in his career, and his ERA against them this year is 1.00. Collmenter has been much better at home this year as well. Both of these pitchers are fully capable of putting up a bunch of zeros. Arizona's lineup is extremely weak right now, and Morse and Pagan are both questionable for the Giants. Look for solid outings from both starters in this one. Take the under. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Play of the Month* The Detroit Tigers have arguably the best offense in baseball. Ricky Nolasco has had a horrible season, and he has been struggling a lot down the stretch. For the year, Nolasco has a 5.64 ERA. The Tigers offense has been hot of late, scoring at least 6 runs in five of their last eight games. I see the Tigers getting to Nolasco early in this game. Minnesota's offense has been far better at home than on the road this year. The over is 42-28 in the Twins home games this season. Rick Porcello has been giving up loads of hits of late,  and he isn't working as deep in games. The Tigers bullpen is atrocious, and the Twins have torched them all year. The sooner the Tigers bullpen gets into this game, the more likely it is that we see a very high scoring game. Both teams should have lots of chances with runners on base in this contest. A total set this low in a battle between these teams makes no sense to me. 

The over is 4-0 in the Tigers last 4 games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 as a road favorite. The over is 4-0 in the Tigers last 4 on grass. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a righty. The over is 7-0 in the Twins last 7 home games vs. a righty. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 as a home underdog. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 during game two of a series. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 7-0 in Nolasco's last 7 home starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. The over is 5-0 in Nolasco's last 5 following a quality start. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. The over is 6-0-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two in Minnesota. A 73-0 angle. Take the over big! 

*3 Star NFL Totals TKO* The Houston Texans offense is going to need some work. Houston's offensive line isn't all that good right now, and the passing game will likely struggle for a while with Fitzpatrick at quarterback. On the other hand, the Texans have a dominating defense that should be shutting down most opponents this year. Oakland's offense is a mess right now, and Derek Carr is in for a rough game here against a very good pass rush and a very good secondary. Oakland's defense is better than most believe, and the Raiders should do a good job keeping everything in front of them here. I believe this will be a field goal kicking contest. Take the under here. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Seattle Mariners and Oakland Athletics are in the middle of a race for an AL Wildcard spot. Both of these teams have the same strengths and weaknesses. They both have a very good starting rotation and an excellent bullpen. They also both have suspect offenses that have been particularly bad of late. Chris Young is a totally different pitcher at home, and Jon Lester is a big game pitcher who is throwing it well right now. I was very surprised to see 7 as the line on this game. This is in a pitcher's park and it's a crucial game for both teams. 

The under is 4-0 in the A's last 4 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 on the road. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. the AL West. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less last game. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 during game three of a series. The under is 3-0-1 in Lester's last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 6-0-1 in the Mariners last 7 games. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 with a total set at 7 to 8.5. The under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 vs. the AL West. The under is 7-0 in the Mariners last 7 games when Young pitches as a home underdog of +110 to +150. The under is 4-0 in Young's last 4 starts vs. the A's. A 51-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Milwaukee Brewers offense has been struggling in a big way of late. That's the primary reason this team has been floundering down the stretch. Milwaukee needs to win these games, but the offense isn't performing well under the pressure. The Cincinnati Reds offense has been poor ever since Joey Votto went down with an injury. Jay Bruce is slumping and Devin Mesoraco is cooling off a bit as well. Mike Leake and Matt Garza are both quality pitchers who can get the job done. The home plate umpire here is a solid strike caller which helps as well. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians are playing a key series this weekend. Detroit's Justin Verlander starts this one. Verlander has been struggling in a big way over the past couple months. In his career, the Indians have hit Verlander better than just about any other team in the league, and now that he is already pitching poorly, I expect Cleveland to hit him well this game. Trevor Bauer has some poor history against the Tigers as well. Bauer allows too many base runners, and teams like the Tigers will typically make you pay for that kind of thing. 

The over is 4-0 in the Indians last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 5-0 in Verlander's last 5 as a home favorite. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 home starts with the total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 4-0 in Bauer's last 4 starts vs. the Tigers. The over is 4-0 in Verlander's last 4 with HP umpire Layne behind the dish. A 27-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB Totals TKO* The Arizona Wildcats and Nevada Wolfpack both like to get a lot of snaps off. There will be plenty of plays for each offense in this one, and Arizona's backfield combination of Solomon and Wilson. Nevada has a solid secondary, but their front seven isn't any good against the run game. Arizona is going to run it early and often here, and I think they'll have a lot of success. Cody Fajardo is an underrated quarterback and I expect him to find openings in the Arizona secondary that is very inexperienced. Look for both offenses to have little trouble moving the football in this contest. Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB Late Night BAILOUT* The Colorado Buffaloes have some major defensive problems. They allowed 38 points against a dreadful UMass offense last week. Last year they allowed 54 points against Arizona State. To put that into context though, you need to understand that Arizona State had 47 points at halftime and 54 points midway through the 3rd quarter before completely calling off the dogs. The Sun Devils defense was elite last year. This year Arizona State has some major problems on defense, so Colorado should put more on the board. Arizona State will probably still get their 45-50 points on Colorado too. A high scoring affair in Boulder on Saturday night.

The over is 5-0 in Arizona State's last 5 September games. The over is 5-0 in Colorado's last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 7-1 in Arizona State's last 8 after allowing 170 passing yards or less last game. A 17-1 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA FB Television Total* The Boston College Eagles host USC Saturday night. While Boston College isn't a talented team, they do play very hard for Coach Steve Addazio. The Eagles defense is likely to slow down USC a little more than most expect. Remember that USC is in a very bad spot here, because USC just won at Stanford and is in a letdown situation. Boston College's offense is terrible, and I would be surprised to see them put up anything more than 14 points in this game. Last year's game between these two was 35-7, and a total in the 40's sounds about right to me again this year. Too much value on the under for me to pass this one up. Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Hidden GEM Total* The Idaho Vandals are quietly getting a much better offense. Idaho's quarterback is Mike Linehan (son of Scott Linehan from the NFL) and he is really impressing in this offense. Paul Petrino is getting this Idaho offense moving with a quick tempo offense and a lot of short passes that give their playmakers at wide receiver a chance to work in the open field. Western Michigan's defense was torched by Purdue, and Purdue's offense isn't any good. The Broncos offense is improving though, and Idaho regularly allows 40 points or more in a game. It's hard to imagine either team coming up with many stops in this one. This number is set too low.

The over is 5-0 in Idaho's last 5 on turf. The over is 7-1 in their last 8 following an ATS win. The over is 7-1 in their last 8 overall. The over is 5-1 in W. Michigan's last 6 road games. A 24-3 angle. Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play Total of the MONTH* The Washington Huskies defense has taken a major step backward this year, especially in the secondary. Washington was torched for 52 points and 573 yards of total offense by Eastern Washington last week. The most amazing statistic is that Eastern Washington threw for 475 yards in that game. Wes Lunt gives Illinois a quality quarterback who can move their offense. The Fighting Illini have had defensive problems for many years, and they aren't fixed this year. They allowed 34 points last week against Western Kentucky. Washington's top cornerback is out for this game, which should make things even tougher for the Huskies defense. Both offenses like to play very quickly, so they'll get lots of chances here. I had this total at 75 points, so this is a very big play for me. TOP Total of the Month on Washington/Illinois Over. 

*4 Star NCAA FB Battle for Iowa Total* Iowa and Iowa State have played some highly physical games against each other the past few years. These games are generally relatively close, and the defenses usually have the edge. I don't see any reason to expect anything different in this game. Iowa couldn't get any offense going last weekend against Ball State, and the Hawkeyes are without star OL Scherff. The Cyclones defense appears better this year, and they have fared well against Iowa in recent seasons. Iowa's defense is tough in the trenches, and they should manhandle an Iowa State OL that is very weak. Very little offense from either side in this one. Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Early Bird Special* The Louisville Cardinals are transitioning to a totally different offense, and it always takes a while to get things right during that period. Virginia's offense simply can't throw the football, so they rely on the run almost exclusively. Louisville's front seven is good against the run, and I see Virginia struggling to score here. At the same time, Virginia's defense showed me a lot in their loss to UCLA earlier this year. Virginia didn't let UCLA do much of anything in that game, and that is a very good Bruins offense. Louisville's offense is going to have a rough time getting going here. Look for a lot of three and outs in this game, and if teams do get in the red zone I expect plenty of settling for field goals. The under is 4-0 in Louisville's last 4 games on grass. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 following a win by 20 points or more. An 11-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA FB Total Value* The Vanderbilt Commodores and the UMass Minutemen are two absolutely horrible teams. These aren't teams I would ever want to back as an ATS selection, but I'll take the value play on the over here thanks to their terrible defenses. Vandy's defense has been strong in the past couple years, but they aren't this year. UMass has such a horrible defense that they allowed 41 points to an awful Colorado offense last week. It won't be pretty in this one, but I expect the offenses to get enough on the board. Also, defensive or special teams TD's are very likely in a sloppy game like this one. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Seattle Mariners and Oakland A's meet in a really important series for both teams. Oakland was coasting in this division not that long ago, and now they are 10 games behind the Angels and needing to hang onto a Wildcard spot. Oakland could still miss the playoffs altogether unless they get it turned around. The A's have their offense to blame. The offense has been terrible of late. Paxton is a very underrated pitcher for the Mariners, and I expect him to keep this offense quiet. Jason Hammel is a streaky pitcher, but he's been throwing it well of late. Seattle's offense has struggled the majority of the year. A big ballpark and two struggling offenses along with two elite bullpens. I like this to be a low scoring contest. Take the under. 

*3 Star ESPN CFB 100% Angle Total* The Baylor Bears and Buffalo Bulls meet in non-conference game in Buffalo Friday night on ESPN. Baylor's Bryce Petty is expected to start in this one. Petty was dinged up in the opener, but he will be ready to go here and his Heisman campaign will be on display on national television. Art Briles and this team have made it clear by their comments that they want to give Petty a boost in the Heisman race. In my opinion, that means keeping the foot on the gas and piling up the points. There's little doubt that Baylor can hang a huge number on a Buffalo defense that isn't even close to as good as they were a year ago. Remember, they scored 70 points on Buffalo last year and now they are facing a weakened defense. The Bulls should be able to put up some points on a weakened Baylor defense too. Buffalo has a good passing game, and that should help them keep the chains moving.

The over is 8-0 in Baylor's last 8 September games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 Friday games. The over is 7-0 in Buffalo's last 7 non-conference games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 September games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 games on turf. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after gaining 450 yards or more. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 following an ATS loss. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 after giving up 200 yards or more rushing. A 42-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Texas Rangers offense is a total disaster right now. It's Adrian Beltre and a bunch of minor leaguers. Alex Wood is on a major roll of late, and it's hard to see that changing against this Texas lineup. Atlanta's offense has really let them down all year long, and they'll be up against a good pitcher in Derek Holland here. Holland has missed all season until September, but he is in midseason form. He has allowed just one run in his first two starts. Both of these pitchers are capable of shutting down the opposition. It's a cool night in Texas and that helps the under as well since the ball won't carry as well.

The under is 6-0 in the Braves last 6 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 3-0-2 in their last 5 as a road favorite. The under is 3-0-1 in Wood's last 4 starts as a road favorite. The under is 3-0-2 in Wood's last 5 road starts. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 starts following a quality start. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 4-0-2 in Holland's last 6 starts as an underdog. A 25-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Totals TKO* The Toledo Rockets will have a new quarterback for this game. Phillip Ely won the starting job, but he is injured and out for the year now. Without Ely, I look for the Rockets offense to take some time to get used to Woodside as the new starter. Cincinnati's offense is good, but I don't see the Bearcats being able to dominate on the front line against a high quality Toledo defensive line. Toledo was beaten badly by Missouri last week, and I fully expect a much better defensive effort from the Rockets in this one. Cincinnati hasn't played a game all year thus far, which is a very strange scheduling situation. As it is though, the Bearcats offense will likely need a little time to work out the kinks. I see this being a close game between two underrated defenses. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Milwaukee Brewers have been in a major funk of late. They did win last night behind a great pitching performance from Wily Peralta. I give them a good chance in this one with Mike Fiers pitching as well, but the moneyline is too high for my liking. Instead, I suggest a play on the under. Mike Fiers is a guy I've liked a lot for a long time. He should have been in the Brewers rotation a long time ago. Fiers has a deceptive delivery that takes time to get used to. He has an ERA of less than 2 at home this year. Nate Eovaldi pitches against him, and Eovaldi is a youngster with electric stuff. The Brewers offense hasn't been taking advantage of scoring opportunities of late. Two young pitchers with high quality stuff here. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Marlins have been playing better than expected and the Brewers are totally falling apart. Milwaukee needs a win in the worst way. Wily Peralta has pitched his best in his career at the end of the season. Cosart has been absolutely dealing of late for the Marlins. Because of the high scoring games between these two teams of late, the posted total here is elevated a little more than it should be. Dan Bellino is a solid under umpire behind the plate, and that should help both of these pitchers. I expect a close low scoring contest in Milwaukee Wednesday night. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total Domination* John Lackey's velocity has been down a bit in recent starts, which has to concern the Cardinals a bit. He hasn't pitched terribly, but he has allowed at least 7 hits in his last three outings. Alfredo Simon is struggling in the 2nd half of the season. Simon still has some numbers that make him a candidate for continued regression, and he faces a Cardinals offense that is hitting the ball much better of late. Since Molina has come back the offense has been hitting the ball the way everyone expected them to all season long. The heat and humidity in Cincinnati Wednesday night will be a big boost here too. The ball can really fly well at Great American Ballpark in these conditions. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves finish out their series on Wednesday afternoon. The weather will be warm for this one, and I expect that to help the ball carry. Aaron Harang started the year on fire, but he is laboring in a big way down the stretch. I certainly expected that at some point since Harang was pitching so much better than expected, and it seems he is wearing down now. The Nationals start Stephen Strasburg here, and he has been hit hard by Atlanta throughout his career. Strasburg has an ERA of 4.62 in his career against Atlanta. With a weakening Harang and Strasburg up against a team that hits him well, a total of 7 is too low.

The over is 5-0 in Harang's last 5 road starts. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 starts on 4 days of rest. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a road underdog. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 road starts with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 4-0 in Strasburg's last 4 starts vs. Atlanta. The over is 3-0-1 in Strasburg's last 4 starts with Marty Foster behind the dish. A 25-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves have played in a bunch of low scoring games this year. It makes sense too. These are two offenses that have struggled for the majority of the season. Both of these offenses are good against left-handed pitching, but have been poor against right-handed pitching (especially Atlanta). Jordan Zimmermann and Ervin Santana have both been throwing the ball really well over their last few starts. Both bullpens are excellent and they have plenty of depth. Look for a close low scoring affair here. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Sonny Gray appears to have hit a wall late in the year. After pitching extremely well early in the season, Gray has been roughed up of late. Since the All-Star break, he has a 4.24 ERA. He allowed 6 runs in just five innings at home against Seattle in his last outing. Hector Noesi has a 4.79 ERA at home this year. Noesi has pitched a bit better of late, but I still don't trust him. He also doesn't go deep in the game very often, and the White Sox bullpen is the worst in baseball right now. This total is set too low given the struggles of these starting pitchers. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals have been division rivals over the past few years. Cincinnati is well out of the race this year, but the Cardinals have tons left to play for. St. Louis' bats have finally started to heat up of late and I believe the return of Yadier Molina has been the spark. The Cardinals do have a solid lineup, and I expect them to get to Dylan Axelrod. Axelrod had a career ERA of over 5 coming into this year, and his advanced metrics suggest he has been very fortunate so far this season. Shelby Miller has been up and down all year, but he has an ERA over 5 at Cincinnati. Miller has been much worse on the road in his young career than at home. 

The over is 3-0 in the Cardinals last 3 games. The over is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between these teams. The over is 5-0 in Miller's last 5 as a road favorite. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 road starts overall. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 6-0 in his last 6 road starts with the total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. A 25-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Buffalo Bills offense looked bad in the preseason, and that's the only reason this number is set so low. Remember, the Bears defense was absolutely awful last year, and they didn't do much to change that in the offseason. The Bears are going to give up a lot of points this year and make mediocre offenses look good. I think that will happen in this game. On the other hand, Chicago's offense looks set for a big season. Jay Cutler has weapons all over the place at his disposal, and Marc Trestman's system worked well last year. The offense should be that much better in a second year in the same system. Buffalo's cornerbacks are going to have a hard time shutting down Marshall and Jeffery. Expect plenty of points in this contest.

The over is 4-0 in the Bears last 4 games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 games played on grass. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 games played in September. A 13-0 angle. Take the over. 

*5 Star CFB TOP Play Late Night BAILOUT* The UTEP Miners and Texas Tech Raiders meet Saturday night in a game where I expect the scoreboard to be lighting up. Texas Tech is top five in the nation in terms of pace. The Red Raiders are going to put up a bunch of points against a UTEP defense that was among the worst in the nation last year. UTEP's secondary is particularly weak, and Davis Webb and company will chew them up. Texas Tech's defense struggled last week against Central Arkansas, and I expect UTEP's offense to be better this year behind quarterback Jamiell Showers. UTEP might initially want to slow this game down, but once they get behind they'll be unable to do that. I made this total 71 points, so I see a ton of value on the over.

The over is 4-0 in Texas Tech's last 4 following a win. The over is 7-1 in their last 8 after scoring 40 points or more last game. An 11-1 angle. Take the over big! 

*4 Star CFB Oregon/Michigan State Totals CASH* The Oregon Ducks and Michigan State Spartans meet in what is the biggest game of the year so far in college football. Oregon's fast-paced and high flying offense against Michigan State's strong defense in a matchup that has college football fans salivating. I highly respect Pat Narduzzi (DC at Michigan State), but I'm afraid this Spartans defense has has to replace too many stars. With this being only the second game of the year, there's no way this unit will be as good right now as the Spartans defense was late last year. I think the oddsmakers have lined this total as if it were a game played at the end of last year. Oregon's fast pace should bother Michigan State. Indiana runs a similar fast paced offense with far less talent, and the Hoosiers scored 28 points on Michigan State last year. Connor Cook is playing great at quarterback, and I think he'll find holes in the Oregon secondary to led the Spartans to plenty of points as well. This total is set too low. Take the over here. 

*3 Star NCAA FB Totals TKO* NC State's offense should be much better this year with Jacoby Brissett under center. Brissett was a very highly touted prospect in high school, and I think he has the potential to put up big numbers against the ACC this year. Old Dominion's defense has been awful in recent years. They gave up 80 points to North Carolina last year. Hampton's offense had no trouble moving the ball against them last week. NC State's defense is nothing special at all, and Old Dominion's offense is very good with star quarterback Taylor Heinicke running the show. Both of these teams ranked in the top 37 in the nation in terms of pace last year, so I expect plenty of snaps in this one. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Milwaukee Brewers are totally falling apart. Ryan Braun just isn't hitting the ball of late, and you have to wonder if there is an injury that we don't know about there. The Cardinals pitching staff has been on fire of late. St. Louis sends John Lackey to the mound for this one, and Lackey is an above average pitcher. Mike Fiers is a pitcher I've liked for a long time. I think Fiers should have been in the Brewers rotation all year. Fiers has a deceptive delivery and unless you have seen him recently it's very tough to pick up on quickly. While the Cardinals have been playing well of late, their offense has still been in a slump. Look for both starters to pitch well here.

The under is 4-0 in the Cardinals last 4. The under is 5-0 in the Cardinals last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 6-0 in Fiers' last 6 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The under is 5-0 in Fiers' last vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 home starts overall. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. A 28-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Play of Day* The Baltimore Orioles are far better than many give them credit for being, and one of the main reasons is their much improved bullpen. When you have guys like Darren O'Day and Zach Britton pitching lights out in the 8th and 9th innings it can really shorten a game. The Cincinnati Reds offense is a disaster right now. Without Joey Votto this team just can't seem to string together big innings. Jay Bruce is in a major slump and Brandon Phillips doesn't appear completely healthy. Mike Leake has pitched extremely well of late. He has a 1.61 ERA in his last 3 outings. Chris Tillman has a 2.50 ERA at home this year. Tillman is throwing the ball very well lately. The under is 21-9-2 in Tillman's last 32 home starts. Take the under in this one. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Justin Verlander isn't the same pitcher he used to be, and even when he was dominating most teams he had a tough time against the Cleveland Indians. A lot of the guys in this Indians lineup seem to see the ball well against Verlander. Danny Salazar has a ton of potential, but his lack of command has hurt him against top lineups this year. Detroit has scored at least 7 runs in 5 of their last 11 games, so their offense is really clicking right now. Once Verlander leaves here, the Tigers bullpen is very capable of giving up runs in bunches too. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Total Value* The Colorado Rockies and San Francisco Giants have been piling up the runs in this series, and I don't expect that to change in this finale. Coors Field becomes a launching pad during day games, and the temperature is expected to be in the low 90's for this one, which means the ball will be flying extremely well. Ryan Vogelsong has been torched at Coors Field in the past. The Rockies can still score runs at home. Bergman starts for Colorado and his stats suggest he probably shouldn't be in the bigs right now. The bullpen behind him is the worst in the NL. Expect a lot of runs in this one. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates meet in the series finale on Wednesday afternoon. St. Louis has gotten some momentum going of late as their offense has finally started heating up. This team has been a major underperformer on the year as a whole, and the offense has been the main reason. If the offense continues their recent pace, this team will be dangerous. Shelby Miller is in a sophomore slump, and he has  4.98 ERA in his career against the Pirates. Edinson Volquez has a 5.50 ERA in 7 career starts at St. Louis. It will be a hot day which will help the ball carry here too.

The over is 7-0 in Volquez's last 7 road starts. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 as an underdog. The over is 4-0-1 in his last 5 starts during game three of a series. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 road starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 4-0 in the Cardinals last 4 games. The over is 7-0 in their last 7 home games vs. a righty. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 as a home favorite. The over is 6-0 in Miller's last 6 vs. the NL Central. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 on 4 days of rest. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 during game 3 of a series. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 on grass. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts when the total is set at 7 to 8.5 runs. A 63-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Oakland Athletics offense has been in a major slump of late. Without Yoenis Cespedes in the middle of the lineup, it seems the A's aren't the same offense. James Paxton is an impressive youngster who I think will fare well in his first career start against Oakland. A tricky lefty like Paxton is tough to pick up right away, and in this case I see the advantage going to the pitcher. Sonny Gray has struggled a bit of late, but if there were ever a team he could bounce back against its the Mariners. In 32 and 2/3 inning in his career against Seattle, he has allowed only 4 earned runs. Both teams have a great bullpen as well. Take the under here. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Miami Marlins host the New York Mets in the second game of this series on Tuesday night. Jon Niese starts for the Mets, and Niese has been laboring in recent starts. He hasn't been nearly as sharp as he was earlier this year, and I wonder if he is wearing down a bit. Brad Penny isn't worthy of a big league starting spot, but the Marlins are thin right now so he's getting a start. David Wright has a .600 career batting average against Penny in 20 at bats. Both of these defenses are terrible as well, so unearned runs would come as no surprise in this contest.  Toby Basner is a solid over umpire, which works to our advantage here. This total is too low for these pitchers.

The over is 8-0-1 in the Mets last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The over is 6-0-1 in Niese's last 7 starts following a quality start in his last start. The over is 3-0-2 in Niese's last 5 starts overall. The over is 3-0 in his last 3 vs. the NL East. The over is 2-0 in his last 2 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two. The over is 5-0-1 in Niese's last 6 road starts in Miami. The over is 2-0 in Penny's last 2 vs. the Mets. A 34-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Baltimore Orioles have really impressed this year, and the Orioles are a team I've made solid money backing this season. Phil Hughes is a pitcher I've made money backing the under with, and I'm going to play the under again in this one. Hughes has been lights out on the road most of this season, and the Twins bullpen is pretty solid. Baltimore's Kevin Gausman has a lot of talent and this Minnesota lineup isn't very good right now. The Orioles bullpen is elite. While Baltimore has hit the ball well against Hughes in the past, Hughes is a totally different pitcher this year than he has been in the past. 

The under is 6-0 in Hughes' last 6 following a team loss. The under is 4-0 in Hughes last 4 as an underdog. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 road starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 4-0-1 in his last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in Hughes' last 5 starts after the team allowed 5 runs or more last game. The under is 5-0 in Gausman's last 5 after the team allowed 5 runs or more. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 when his opponent scored at least 5 runs in their last game. A 35-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Miami Marlins and New York Mets meet early Monday for a Labor Day afternoon game. Zack Wheeler and Henderson Alvarez are two youngsters that I like quite a bit. Wheeler has really come into his own of late, and Alvarez has been amazing at home all season. Wheeler's numbers against Miami really stand out as nothing short of amazing. In five career starts against Miami, Wheeler has a 1.04 ERA. He has allowed a grand total of four runs against them in 34 and 2/3 innings. At Miami, Wheeler has allowed just two runs in 22 innings for an ERA of 0.82. Alvarez has a 1.46 ERA at home this year. Neither of these offenses are particularly impressive.

The under is 4-0 in Alvarez's last 4 games with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 3-0-1 in the Marlins last 4 vs. the NL East. The under is 8-1-1 in the last 10 meetings between these two in Miami. A 15-1 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox are two offenses that have been stuck in neutral of late. Clay Buchholz totally shut down the Rays yesterday, and Buchholz has been struggling badly this year. The Red Sox lineup is very weak at the bottom of the order right now. Drew Smyly is a guy I've been high on this year, and he's been throwing it very well of late. De La Rosa is up and down, but I see him having success against a Rays lineup that strikes out quite a bit. Both bullpens have been throwing it well of late. Take the under in this one. 

*3 Star NCAA FB Total DOMINATION* The New Mexico Lobos and the UTEP Miners have two of the worst defenses in the nation. New Mexico allowed 6.2 yards per carry and 42.8 points per game last year. UTEP allowd 6.2 yards per carry and 39.3 points per game. These teams met last year and the final score was 42-35. Jamiell Showers and the UTEP offense should be much better this year with Showers getting a lot more reps in this system. UTEP has a couple good RB's as well. New Mexico's option attack (pistol) has been really successful and Bob Davie's team should score a lot of points on teams that can't stop the run this year. UTEP definitely fits right into that mold. I expect a very high scoring game. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Justin Verlander isn't the pitcher he used to be. Verlander's ERA isn't far from five, and he has been laboring through all of his starts of late. Scott Carroll isn't a big league quality pitcher. Carroll has an ERA of 5.05 and it isn't a fluke at all. He just doesn't have good enough stuff. The White Sox offense is plenty good to score some runs here, and the Tigers should hit Carroll hard. Carroll has allowed five runs or more in six of his last 10 starts. Also important to note that these two bullpens are the worst in the majors in the past month. If we get to the bullpens early, I really like our chances of cashing this one.

The over is 4-0 in the Tigers last 4 road games. The over is 5-0 in the Tigers last 5 as a road favorite. The over is 7-0 in the Tigers last 7 vs. the AL Central. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record. A 20-0 angle. Take the over. 

*5 Star NCAA FB TOP Play Total* Bowling Green has a bunch of returning starters on offense, and they are the key guys that will make this offense thrive in 2014. Matt Johnson is the best quarterback in the Mid American Conference. Travis Greene is the best running back in the MAC. Even more importantly though, Bowling Green has a new head coach in Dino Babers. Who is Dino Babers? Babers used to work under Art Briles at Baylor and he helped install Baylor's current fast-paced high octane offense. Babers used that at Eastern Illinois the past two years, and Eastern Illinois scored more than 40 points per game last year. It's all about playing fast and getting off tons of snaps. Western Kentucky lost most of their defense from last year, and I expect Bowling Green to move the ball at will here. It won't surprise me to see massive yardage totals from the Falcons. Western Kentucky has a veteran quarterback and some solid offensive weapons. The Hilltoppers should be able to put some on the board as well. Tons of possessions in this game and a total of only 56. I love the value here. Take the over big! 

**This line has quickly risen. My numbers had this game at 70 points, so I still suggest a play on this one, but I would rate it 4 stars instead of 5 at the current level. Thank you**

*3 Star NCAA FB Opening Night Total DOMINATION* The Tulsa Golden Hurricane had a very disappointing season last year. They got horrible quarterback play and had an inexperienced defense. Tulsa is used to winning and I do expect them to be better this year. Still, Tulsa has major concerns at quarterback and running back this year, and they shouldn't be too dynamic. On the other hand, Tulane isn't used to winning and they had a great season and got to a bowl game a year ago. The Green Wave are due to regress a bit this year, but I think they'll still be competitive. The Tulsa defense returns 10 starters (as many as any team in the nation) and I expect them to be much better defensively than they were last season. Tulane's defense is what led the way last season. The matchup between these two last year finished at 14-7 Tulane. This one will be higher scoring than that, but I don't see it reaching this total. The under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these teams. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The under was my play in last night's meeting between these two AL East teams, and I'm going to go with the under for the second night in a row. Kevin Gausman is quickly improving on the mound, and the Tampa Bay Rays offense isn't very good. Drew Smyly has been a tremendous acquisition for the Rays. Smyly has thrown 14 innings in his career against Baltimore and only allowed one run. The under has been a big winner at home for the Orioles this year, and the under has been very good when Tampa Bay is on the road this year as well.

The under is 4-0 in the Rays last 4 following a loss. The under is 4-0 in Smyly's last 4 starts. The under is 5-0-1 in Baltimore's last 6 Wednesday games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a win. The under is 4-0 in Gausman's last 4 when the Orioles opponent scores 2 runs or less in the previous game. A 21-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays have both been playing solid baseball of late. Both of these teams have been getting good starting pitching and quality relief pitching as well. Alex Cobb is a very good young starter who has been firing on all cylinders of late. Cobb has an ERA of 0.44 in his last three outings. Cobb has shutdown stuff, and the Orioles are now without Manny Machado in their lineup. Cobb's career ERA against the Orioles is a ridiculous 1.89 (6 starts).  Wei-Yin Chen is 13-4 with a 3.76 ERA this season. The Rays offense is below average, and Chen has a solid 3.51 ERA in 11 career starts against Tampa Bay. 

The under is 6-0 in Cobb's last 6 starts. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 following a quality start. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 games when allowing 5 runs or more last game. The under is 3-0-1 in the Orioles last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more. The under is 4-0-1 in Chen's last 5 starts on 5 days of rest. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 starts overall. The under is 4-0 in Chen's last 4 starts following a quality start. A 40-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL TOP Total of the Preseason* The Seattle Seahawks host the Chicago Bears late Friday night. Seattle has great depth at the quarterback position. Russell Wilson, Tarvaris Jackson, and Terrelle Pryor form a very nice trio. Jay Cutler will play deep into this game for the Bears. The Bears have a couple very physical receivers in Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery. Seattle's secondary is normally very physical as well, but with the massive jump in penalties league wide in the preseason, this looks to me like a spot where Chicago will get a bunch of help from the officials. It's hard to stop the Bears receiver without being physical, and the officials aren't letting it happen so far this year. Seattle's offense should put up plenty of points against a Bears defense that simply isn't very good. Plenty of reasons to expect lots of scoring in this one. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Indians meet on Thursday afternoon in the finale of their three-game series. Both teams send their best starting pitcher to the mound in this one. Phil Hughes is one of the most improved pitchers in the majors this year. Hughes is throwing the ball better than he has at any other time in his career. In his last three games, he has allowed only a single run in each contest. The Indians are without Nick Swisher and David Murphy right now. Corey Kluber has been the best pitcher in baseball outside of Clayton Kershaw in the last couple months. Kluber has allowed two runs or less in 11 of his last 12 starts. He has allowed one run or less in each his last five outings. Minnesota's lineup is very weak right now. This is a get away day game, which means the lineups could be weaker than normal as well. 

The under is 6-0 in Kluber's last 6 road starts. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 as a road favorite. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 as a favorite of -110 to -150. The under is 7-0 in Hughes' last 7 starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 starts overall. The under is 4-0-1 in his last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts as an underdog. The under is 4-0 in Hughes' last 4 home starts. A 41-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Betting an under with the Colorado Rockies is always a little scary, but when they don't have Troy Tulowitzki or Carlos Gonzalez in the lineup it isn't quite as scary. Colorado's offense is far from elite right now, and Danny Duffy continues to throw the ball well. Jorge De La Rosa has a 1.98 ERA in 27 and 1/3 innings with HP umpire Jeff Nelson behind the dish. That's an important stat, and De La Rosa has a solid 3.30 ERA at Coors Field this year as well. Kansas City has been inconsistent offensively this year against lefties. The wind will be blowing in and we won't have much heat in this game. I see this staying a little lower scoring than expected. Take the under.