*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* R.A. Dickey starts for the Braves in this one. Dickey isn't the worse pitcher you'll find, but he is below average at this stage of his career. The Pittsburgh Pirates lineup should be very good this season. Look for Pittsburgh to have a lot of runners on base against Dickey.

Chad Kuhl starts for the Pirates. Kuhl has below average stuff and relies heavily on limiting walks. This Atlanta lineup is better than most believe. Look for the Braves to score more runs on a consistent basis this year. 

Both of these bullpens are worse than the league average, so runs late in the game should be expected. Tom Hallion is the homeplate umpire here, and he is a solid over umpire. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Kevin Gausman has a superb record against the Yankees in his young career. Gausman has an ERA below 2 against the Yankees, and much of that sample was against a much better Yankees offense than this year's version. Gausman has excellent stuff and I expect a breakout season from him. 

Masahiro Tanaka has been very good against the Orioles in his career as well. Tanaka ranked in the top five in the American League in many key pitching statistics last season. 

These are two of the top five bullpens in baseball, so I expect the offenses to have a hard time scoring late in this contest. Gibson is the home plate umpire here and he rates as a solid under umpire. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Shelby Miller has a lot of potential, but he also has a great amount of potential to get blown up. Miller has trouble with command both inside and outside the strike zone. While his velocity was up in the spring, he still was hit around. Until he proves he is back, I have to assume he'll get knocked around, especially on his home field.

Cleveland's offense should be even better this year with Encarnacion in the lineup and Brantley back from his injury.

Chase Field is a hitters paradise with the roof open. The ball carries so well here in the thin air with almost no humidity. The roof will be open for this one.

Josh Tomlin pitches here for the Indians, and Tomlin's primary problem has always been the long ball. That would suggest he isn't a good fit for Chase Field with the roof open. Arizona's lineup will score a lot of runs at home this year.

Both pitchers give up a lot of big flies, and the ball will be traveling well in this one.

The over is 43-17-1 in the Diamondbacks last 61 home games. 

Take the over. 

*4 NHL Total DOMINATION* Two teams who have zero motivation clash on Thursday night.

With that in mind, there won’t be much of an effort. These two teams just want this season to come to an end. It’s been an absolute mess for both and getting to the offseason and regrouping is what they both want and need.

On the season, neither of these teams have been any sort of threat offensively. Vancouver averages just 2.16 goals per game, while the Coyotes are at just 2.34 goals per contest. There just a lack of a spark when it comes to both these teams, as neither team likes to attack the net. Rather, they sit back and play possession.

Under is 10-1-1 in last 12 meetings in Arizona. The under is 4-0-1 in the Canucks last 5. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 vs. the Western Conference. The under is 2-0-3 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.

Trends wise, this one points to the Under. Given how both teams have played this season and how they want things to just end, there won’t be much of anything here, really make this under a nice play. At this plus money price, a nice value.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Over* I considered this play last night, and I'm going to add this as a premium play based on today's changes. Sergei Bobrovsky will not start for the Blue Jackets. Bobrovsky is one of the best goaltenders in the NHL, and having him out of the lineup is big for the over. Instead, it will be Joonas Korpisalo in the net for the Blue Jackets. He has a save percentage more than 2% lower than Bobrovsky.

Winnipeg starts Eric Comrie in the net today. Comrie is making his NHL debut here. Comrie has one of the worst defense in the NHL playing in front of him, so this is a tough task for him. Columbus hasn't been very good on offense of late, but I think they'll put up several against a Winnipeg team that is one of the worst defensive units in the NHL.

The sharp money loves this play, and I can't play them. About 2/3 of the bets are on the over, but 99% of the money is on the over. I'll take the over here. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Both Matt Moore and Taijuan Walker have had a lot of command problems in the past couple years. These are guys who can be wild inside or outside of the strike zone. Those are the type of guys that I want to take game overs with. Walks are far more important to how many runs are scored than most would think, and these guys are capable of walking a bunch.

Chase Field is one of the best parks for hitters in Major League Baseball. The ball flies so well here with the roof open as it will be for this game. The dry heat is excellent for ball flight. 

Both offenses have some pop to them. Arizona was among the top three in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties last year. 

Arizona has what I believe is the worst bullpen in baseball. The Giants bullpen is one of the bottom ten in the league.

The over is 40-17-1 in the Dbacks last 58 home games.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners play Wednesday night in Houston. Doug Eddings is the umpire behind the plate in this one, and that's good news for under bettors. Eddings has called a higher percentage of pitches strikes than any other umpire in the majors in the past five years. Pitchers love working with him behind home plate.

Both of these teams have above average bullpens and good defenses, and those things are often overlooked when it comes to betting on baseball totals. 

I think James Paxton has a good future in the league, and Charlie Morton is a decent starter as well. The total set at this high of a level with Eddings behind home plate makes this a good value.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Tyler Chatwood has been good on the road in the past year, but opponents batting average on balls in play was .226 against Chatwood on the road last year. If you know anything about BABIP you know that won't continue. The average BABIP in the majors is about .295 or .300, so Chatwood is due for major regression on the road.

Wily Peralta has been really bad in the past year. Peralta just allows way too many baserunners. The Rockies lineup is a good one from top to bottom, and I expect a couple big innings for the Rockies here. 

Both pitchers have control problems, and Andy Fletcher is behind home plate here. According to my database, Fletcher ranks in the bottom ten in the majors in strikes called in the last three seasons. A good umpire to have behind the dish for a game like this.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Detroit Pistons aren't the same on offense without Reggie Jackson. He was averaging more than 14 points per game, and this team doesn't have many guys like him who can get their own shots at any time. 

Toronto was embarrassed by blowing a big lead last night, and the Raptors will want to bounce back here. 

This game is important to both teams with the Pistons still technically alive for the playoffs and the the Raptors fighting for positioning near the top of the Eastern Conference.

Both teams rank in the top 7 in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the past ten games. Detroit ranks second to last in that same time period in offensive efficiency. 

Both teams rank in the bottom ten in the league in terms of tempo.

The under is 5-0 in the Raptors last 5 games when playing on zero days of rest. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 road games when playing against a team with a winning home record. 

The under is 8-0 in the Pistons last 8 home games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the Atlantic Division. A 31-0 angle. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION * The Cleveland Indians showed off their improved offense last night in a come from behind win in Texas. Edwin Encarnacion was huge with a key home run. He should fit brilliantly into this lineup. Cleveland has star Francisco Lindor in the second spot and I expect him to be terrific this year.

Texas has a deep lineup again this year. The Rangers can always pile up the runs on their home field. This is a hitter's park and this team will take advantage of it this year.

Carlos Carrasco had a whopping 10.80 ERA in spring training this year. I don't put a lot of stock in those stats, but Carrasco is coming off injury problems and that suggests some possible issues still for the righty. Carrasco has a 6.23 ERA in 13 innings pitched in Texas. 

Martin Perez has an awful 12.46 ERA in three appearances against the Indians. Perez isn't a pitcher I'm high on, and I think Cleveland can put up a pretty big number here. 

Early in the season over the last decade, the over has done well, and that is especially true in warm weather cities. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star NHL FIRE on ICE Play* Tuesday night features one of the worst defenses in the NHL, which gives us solid value on the over.

It’s been quite the common theme for the Jets this season as they boast one of the worst defenses in the league. The Jets are conceding 3.14 goals per game overall and that number jumps to 3.26 when playing on the road.

This is going to be a game where the Blue feast on the Jets defense. St. Louis has plenty of attackers and when playing at home they really work well offensively. Their goals per game jumps to 3.03 when playing in front of the home crowd, which should really be a recipe for success here as they’ll have a lot of chances on net.

The Over is 7-3 in Jets last 10 games playing on 2 days rest. The Over is 24-11-1 in Jets last 36 overall.

Whichever way you look at it, Winnipeg has been an over bet this season. They are just so poor defensively, which should create plenty of chances for St. Louis, helping this total. As for the Jets offense, they like to crash the net, which helps them with scoring chances, but leaves them vulnerable to the counter.

Take the over.

*3 Star MLB Opening Day Late Night BAILOUT* The Los Angeles Angels and the Oakland Athletics meet in the season opener on Monday night. 

The over has been very good in the first ten games of the season in the past five years. That has been especially true in games with a total of 8 or lower and a gametime temperature of 55 degrees or warmer. These games have gone over at a clip of about 58% in the past five years. In a large sample size, that's definitely a good number.

The Angels and A's are both subpar defensively. I don't think enough importance is put on defense and how it changes totals. Oakland may be the worst defense in the majors, and that will lead to more opportunities for scoring. 

Neither team has a tremendous lineup, but both of them are better than last year. These bullpens are also no better than average.

Nolasco is a worse than league average pitcher and Graveman is no better than league average at this stage in his career.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Sunday NBA BEST Bet* The Golden State Warriors have quietly been a tremendous under team of late. The under is a whopping 16-2 in games Kevin Durant doesn't play this year. 

Golden State has surprisingly slowed their tempo down drastically. I believe it was to focus on their defense, and it is working very well. Golden State ranks 18th in the NBA in tempo in their last eight games. That means they are playing slower than the average NBA team during that period.

The Warriors are also first in the league in defensive efficiency during that time period. They are allowing only 0.978 points per possession in that period.

Washington ranks 11th in the league in tempo during the last eight games. The Wizards offense has been less efficient on the road by a large margin this year.

Taking the under late in the year when two good teams are playing against each other is a 60% plus angle in the past five years. 

The under is 7-0 in the Warriors last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. The under is 10-1 in the Warriors last 11 home games. A 22-1 angle. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Early Bird Special* The Milwaukee Bucks and Dallas Mavs play a game that tips off at 2:35 central time on Sunday. These early start time games have trended strongly toward the under in the past few years, so that is a nice bonus for this one.

Dallas will be without Seth Curry here. Curry is averaging 12.8 points per game on the year. Milwaukee's Malcolm Brogdon is questionable with a back injury and he is averaging 10 points per game on the season.

Both of these teams rank in the bottom five in the NBA in tempo in the past month. The tempo should be very slow in this game. Neither of these teams are terribly efficient on offense either, and with some good offensive players missing, the defenses should have the edge.

The under is 7-3 in the Mavs last 10 road games. The under is 14-6 in the Bucks last 20 games. 

The early sharp money is on the under. I agree and I'll take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma City Thunder rank 11th in the NBA in tempo in their last ten games. The Charlotte Hornets rank 27th in the NBA in tempo in that same period. I wouldn't expect the pace of this game to be all that fast, especially for a game with a posted total set this high.

The Charlotte Hornets defense has been really bad of late, but I expect that to show positive regression over the next few games. After all, Charlotte's defense ranks better than the league average for the year.

Oklahoma City is playing slightly better on defense of late, and the Thunder are much better on defense at home. 

The under is 7-0 in the last 7 Thunder games when playing as a home favorite with a total of 207 or higher. The under is 8-2-1 in the last 11 games in OKC between these two teams.

Take the under. 

*5 Star Final 4 TOP Play CRUSHER* We're down to the final four teams left standing in the tournament. Now, things get a lot more intense. The teams have even more pressure on them, and things get a little tighter.

The Gonzaga Bulldogs rank first in the nation (351 teams) in defensive efficiency. The South Carolina Gamecocks rank second in the nation in defensive efficiency. It's hard to not like an under when you have the top two defenses in the country squaring off against each other.

Gonzaga's offense is solid, but they aren't up to par with their defense. South Carolina's offense struggled most of the year, and the Gamecocks can go through some long scoring droughts.

What else do I like about this play? This game is being played at the University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale. This is where the Arizona Cardinals play. It's a football stadium, and anytime you find a place that isn't built for basketball, you will have a difficult shooting backdrop. 

With the nerves of this time of the year combining with the massive football stadium and the two tremendous defenses, I like the under here. I think this game stays in the low 130's. 

Take the under big. 

*3 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets meet in a key Western Conference clash on Friday night.

Houston is coming off a loss last night to Portland in the late night game on TNT. James Harden is dealing with a minor wrist injury, and he shot only 2/13 from 3 point range on Thursday night. Harden also attacked the rim less frequently than normal.

Golden State beat Houston on the road earlier this week 113-106. The Warriors defense has been the best in the NBA in the past ten games in terms of efficiency, and it really hasn't been even close. Golden State is allowing only 0.957 points per possession in their last nine contests.

Golden State has also played at only the 13th quickest tempo in the league in their last nine games. The Warriors aren't running as much as they were in the past, and they are winning with defense.

This number is so high that it only takes one low scoring quarter to cash this one.

The under is 6-0-1 in the Rockets last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of 60% or higher. The under is 7-0 in the Warriors last 7 home games. An 18-0 angle.

Take the under.

*4 Star NIT Total DOMINATION* The TCU Horned Frogs and Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets meet in the NIT Finals on Thursday night. 

Early in the NIT you can bet that there are a lot of teams who don't want to be there, and the over is a great play in those games. Late in this tournament, the teams are very motivated to want to win something. I think both Georgia Tech and TCU are highly motivated now to finish the deal. That motivation leads to better defense.

Georgia Tech ranks as the #252 offense in the country in terms of efficiency. The Yellow Jackets just aren't very good shooters. They rely on getting in the lane and doing damage in there, and TCU has some good shot blockers. On the other hand, Georgia Tech is very good defensively. The Yellow Jackets are sixth in the nation in defensive efficiency. I love the way this team works hard on defense at all times. 

TCU will look to slow the pace of the game down, and the Horned Frogs don't get to the free throw line much at all. I think this Georgia Tech defense will be one of the best defenses they have played against this year.

Neither team fouls much at all on defense, and that's a big perk with the new NIT rules (no one and one's). My numbers made this one in the high 120's. 

Now, for an angle that is hard to overlook. The under is a whopping 21-3 in the last 24 NIT semifinal or final games. Why is that important? These games are played at Madison Square Garden where, the under has been golden in college basketball in the long run. This is a tough arena for shooters.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Antonio Spurs host the Golden State Warriors Wednesday night. This is obviously a big game for both teams. 

There is a strong system that I follow late in the season in the NBA. In the system, you play the under when two good teams are playing each other on or after game number 58 of the regular season. If both teams have a win percentage of 60% or higher, and the game is a conference game, the under is hitting at a 60% clip in the last ten years.

Recently, I decided to take this system a step farther. When the home team plays at a pace of 96.2 possessions per game or slower on average, the under is a whopping 114-59 (66%) in the last ten years. This game fits this system as the Spurs average 96.1 possessions per game.

Golden State ranks only 12th in the NBA in tempo in their last 9 games. The Spurs rank 25th. The Warriors have slowed things down without Durant, and the Spurs have been slow paced all year.

Golden State is first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last nine games, and it isn't even close. The Spurs are fourth in the league in defensive efficiency in that span. Expect a tight game where the defenses work very hard.

The under is 7-0 in the Warriors last 7 vs. the Western Conference. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the NBA Southwest Division. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their last game. 

The under is 3-0-1 in the Spurs last 4 games. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 vs. a team with a 60% or higher win percentage. The under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these two in San Antonio.

A 35-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star Tuesday CBB Red HOT CASH* The UCF Golden Knights and the TCU Horned Frogs meet in the NIT semifinals at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday night. 

In the NIT and all of the small postseason tournaments, the over often has value for the majority of the tournament, but once you get this far into the tournament things change quickly. 

In the last 29 NIT Semifinals or finals, the under is 23-6. Madison Square Garden certainly plays a huge role in that. MSG is the single best under venue in the country when it comes to college basketball. It is a massive gym where shooters often struggle to find the range because of difficult shooting backdrops. 

Additionally, now the teams are really invested in this tournament. No one wants to go home now. The defensive effort increases at this point in the tournament by a large amount.

We have UCF who ranks second in effective field goal percentage defense in the country. TCU ranks 58th in defensive efficiency as well. Two good defenses and two teams who don't foul much.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors meet on Tuesday night in a big clash in the Western Conference. Obviously you don't think of unders when you think of these two teams, but Golden State has changed their stripes of late. This will be a contrarian play, but I'm taking the under here.

Golden State ranks 13th in the league in tempo in their last ten games. Earlier in the year, Golden State ranked 1st in pace of play. Narrow it down even more, and you'll see that Golden State ranks 21st in pace of play in their last five games. The Warriors have slowed things down in a big way. 

Golden State also ranks first in the NBA by a wide margin in defensive efficiency in the last ten and last five game sample sizes. Houston has been a league average defense this year.

Golden State ranks only 9th in offensive efficiency in their last ten games. 

With a total set at 234, this is set at such a high level that any one quarter being low should keep it under the total.

The under is 13-1 in the Warriors 14 games this year when playing without Kevin Durant. The under is 38-14 in the Warriors last 52 games. The under is also 4-1 in the last 5 games between these two teams.

The first two meetings between these two both stayed under the total in regulation. In this one, the Warriors don't have Kevin Durant's 25.3 points per game. The Rockets also don't have Ryan Anderson's 13.5 points per game due to an injury.

Take the under. 

*4 star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Chicago Bulls have been terrible on offense of late. In their last 12 games, the Bulls ranks 28th in the NBA in offensive efficiency. They are middle of the pack on the defensive end.

Milwaukee ranks sixth in defensive efficiency during that same time frame. The Bucks are middle of the pack on offense.

Milwaukee also ranks 29th in the league in tempo in their last 12 games. The Bucks have slowed down the pace drastically of late. Chicago ranks 18th, so they are slightly slower than the average team as well.

The oddsmakers haven't adjusted this number down enough for the new tempo Milwaukee is playing at of late.

The under is 6-0 in the Bucks last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The under is 5-0 in the Bucks last 5 home games overall. The under is 6-0 in the Bucks last 6 vs. the Eastern Conference. A 17-0 angle. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Los Angeles Angeles Lakers take on the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday night. The posted total here is high, but it isn't high enough.

In the past six games, the Los Angeles Lakers rank dead last (30th) in the NBA in defensive efficiency, and it isn't even close. Los Angeles is allowing a ridiculous 1.209 points per possession in their last six games. They've clearly given up on this end of the floor.

The second worst defense in the NBA in the last six games is the Minnesota Timberwolves. They are allowing 1.142 points per possession during that time. 

Both teams rank near the middle of the pack in offensive efficiency. The offenses should get plenty of open looks in this one. 

The Lakers continue to push the pace, and they rank in the top five in the NBA on a consistent basis in tempo. 

This game fits a nice late season over angle. Two teams who both have a winning percentage of 45% or less and the spread is 7 points or less either way. The game must be played in the last 12 games of the regular season. In the past ten years, in these spots, the over is hitting at a 61% clip.

The over is 5-0 in the Lakers last 5 vs. the Western Conference. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 5-0 in the Timberwolves last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. A 20-0 angle.

Take the over. 

*5 Star NCAA BB Sweet 16 TOP Play!* The Florida Gators and Wisconsin Badgers square off in what should be a really good game on Friday night at Madison Square Garden. 

Florida ranks third in the nation in defensive efficiency. Wisconsin ranks seventh in the nation in defensive efficiency. Finding good looks should be very difficult for the offenses on Friday night. 

Madison Square Garden is the best under venue in college basketball. The under is a whopping 54-29 in the last 83 games played at Madison Square Garden. 

The shooting backdrop at MSG is tough enough for NBA shooters, and it has been too much for most college players. Very frequently there are some bad shooting numbers in games here. Specifically, three point field goal percentages are lower in games here by a large margin.

Wisconsin is excellent at controlling the pace of the game. I don't expect Florida to be able to run here. Neither of these teams are elite on the offensive end. Both teams are good at defending without fouling as well.

I think this game stays close the whole way, and I expect a final in the mid 120's. Take the under big. 

*3 Star Sweet 16 TGIF Total DOMINATION* The South Carolina Gamecocks were out of this world good on offense in the second half of their win over Duke last weekend. I had the over in that game and felt very lucky to have won that one.

The Gamecocks went long stretches in that game doing absolutely nothing on offense, and that's a concern for their offense moving forward. Baylor is a lot better defensively than Duke. The Bears rank 13th in the country in defensive efficiency. Their size and shot blocking ability on the interior should bother South Carolina a lot here.

South Carolina ranks fourth in the country in defensive efficiency. The Gamecocks force loads of turnovers (4th most in the country) and Baylor's weakness on offense is turnovers. The Baylor guards make too many poor decisions with the ball. That should lower their offensive efficiency quite a bit here.

Finally, this game is played in Madison Square Garden. The under is a whopping 54-29 in the last 83 college basketball games played at Madison Square Garden. This is a very tough gym for shooters, and I think we could see some ugly shooting numbers here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Thursday Night Sweet 16 CASH* The Arizona Wildcats and Xavier Musketeers meet on Thursday night in San Jose. This is a new arena to these teams and that's a negative for shooting percentages. It's a hockey arena with relatively difficult shooting backdrops as well.

Xavier shot well over their season averages in their first two games in the NCAA Tournament. They made 11/17 from three point range in their 91-66 win over Florida State. The Musketeers now go up against an Arizona defense that only allows opponents to shoot 30.9% from long range. I think Xavier's shooting numbers come back down in this one.

Arizona has been relatively inconsistent on offense over the course of the year. The Wildcats are certainly good on offense, but they aren't elite.

Both of these teams like to play at a slow tempo, and with a total set this high, it will take some good shooting numbers to push it over the total. 

Last weekend's run on overs in the NCAA Tournament propped this number up a few points. 

The under is 5-1 in Xavier's last 6 NCAA Tournament games. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Chicago Bulls have been the worst offense in the NBA in the past ten games, and it isn't even close. Chicago is averaging 0.978 points per possession during that time. The second worst offense during that time is averaging 1.02 points per possession. Chicago ranks ninth in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last ten games.

The Toronto Raptors rank first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last eight games. The Raptors have been able to manage pretty well without Kyle Lowry thanks to their improved defense. They should play well against this bad Chicago offense. On the other side, Toronto's offensive efficiency numbers are down without Lowry, and that should come as no surprise.

A look at the recent pace of both teams shows both of these teams in the bottom ten in the league in tempo. Chicago is actually in the bottom five in tempo in their last five contests.

The under is 8-2 in the Bulls last 10 games. The under is 11-5 in the Raptors last 16 games. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The over has been the way to go in the past in the second round of these smaller postseason tournaments. With the new rules when it comes to no 1 and 1's and no 30 second reset on common fouls, the scoring is up a decent amount. 

It would be hard for me to take an under, and in this particular game, the total is set several points too low.

Cal State Bakersfield held Cal to some terrible shooting last game, but Cal is terrible offensively to start with and they were without their two leading scorers. It won't be as easy against Gian Clavell and the Colorado State Rams offense. 

Bakersfield does play slowly, but they also rank in the top 15 in most fouls committed this year. That's important since the new rules will magnify those issues. 

Colorado State's offense is high quality and the Rams played much quicker in their first postseason game than they did in the regular season. 

With a number set this low and the new rules, I'm on the over.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Akron Zips are excellent on offense, but they have really struggled defensively this year. Inside the MAC, overs were golden this year because there were so many good offenses and bad defenses. Akron fits the mold nicely.

UT Arlington just put up more than 100 points at BYU. UT Arlington loves to run, and I think they'll try to dictate the pace here. The Mavericks have a star in Kevin Hervey, and I'm not sure Akron has anyone who can guard him.

UT Arlington hasn't seen a big man like Isaiah Johnson for Akron, and he should do some real damage here. 

I see both teams scoring a lot in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The UCLA Bruins are an excellent offense and they play very quickly. There's no doubt they are capable of putting up a big number. In this case though, I feel like they are up against a team that has what it takes to turn it into a lower scoring game.

Cincinnati's Mick Cronin talked extensively in his interview with the Cincinnati media about the team's need to slow the game down and turn UCLA into a halfcourt offense. He said Cincinnati needs to use the clock and make UCLA work on defense for the length of the shot clock. Cincinnati is a top ten defense in the country. The Bearcats should be able to make UCLA take tougher shots than they are accustomed to taking.

Cincinnati ranks among the slowest 25 teams in the country, and they have made it clear they want to stall here. With a good defense and a team slowing the game down, this is a lot of points. 

I think this game will be tight, and I'll look for a low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Sunday College Hoops BEST Bet* The Duke Blue Devils and South Carolina Gamecocks meet in Greenville, SC on Sunday night. It should be a great atmosphere since there will be a bunch of fans there from each team.

South Carolina likes to run and the Gamecocks attack the rim well. They rely heavily on getting to the free throw line. The Gamecocks are led by a really underrated player in Sindarius Thornwell. 

Duke's offense has been good all year, and it has been excellent of late. The Blue Devils have too many weapons for most defenses. While South Carolina's defense is certainly good, they haven't been up against an offense this efficient all year. The Gamecocks defense commits a ton of fouls and Duke is great at the line at better than 75%. 

These games are being called very tight in the NCAA Tournament, and I think free throws push this one over the total.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Baylor Bears are great at slowing the game down. Baylor ranks 331st in the nation in tempo. The Bears aren't going to let USC turn this game into a track meet. In the past, USC has been extremely fast paced. They are only slightly faster paced than the average team this year.

USC has been slowed down to a very slow tempo against both Providence and SMU. They shot the ball well in both games, but this Baylor defense ranks in the top ten in the nation in defensive efficiency. 

Both of these teams have been good at defending without fouling this year. USC ranks 5th in that category and Baylor 58th in the nation.

Two good defenses here and a total that is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Saturday Night CRUSHER* The Milwaukee Bucks are now playing at the slowest pace of any team in the league, and it isn't even very close. If you look at their last 11 games, Milwaukee's games are nearly a full possession per game slower than anyone else in the NBA. The Bucks have decided that they want to win games by slowing things down and winning low scoring contests.

Golden State's offense is obviously very good, but on the whole, they have been a lot less efficient than normal of late. Their totals continued to be posted too high. The under is a whopping 36-17 in their last 53 games. Golden State is actually 19th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last 19 games. Golden State has been top five in the NBA in defensive efficiency all year long.

With Milwaukee slowing things down and Golden State playing good defense, this total is several points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star College Hoops Total DOMINATION* Both of these teams play at a very slow tempo. For this game to go over the posted total, there will have to be some pretty high shooting percentages. A total set at this price with two teams who play as slowly as MTSU and Butler is rare. 

MTSU is a very good team and I believe they'll be well prepared for this game. When they won against Michigan State last year, the Blue Raiders were just thrilled to have won one game in the tournament. This year, I expect MTSU to be extremely focused on reaching the Sweet 16.

Butler has played in a number of very low scoring games this season. The Bulldogs defense is much better than it was a year ago.

Both teams are excellent on the defensive glass so second chance points should be rare.

Take the under.

*4 Star Friday Late Night BAILOUT* The UCLA Bruins are a tough to play unders with, but I have to do it here. UCLA faces a Kent State team that somehow got through the MAC title game despite being short on talent. Kent State grinds and Jimmy Hall is a really good player for them, but outside of him, the Golden Flashes are at a big talent disadvantage here.

If you are Kent State, you have to know the only way you have a chance in a game like this is to pound it inside and slow the game down. There's no way Kent State should want to run with UCLA here.

UCLA is likely to win this one going away, and the Bruins have plenty of reasons to want to rest their stars late in the game here. Lonzo Ball and TJ Leaf are both at less than 100 percent now. They'll play again Saturday and that is a game that should be more competitive. 

On a neutral court where shooting backdrops are more difficult, this number is extremely high. That is especially true when you don't expect fouling late in the game with it being a blowout, and you expect one team to be trying to stall.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UIC Flames have been playing really fast all year. UIC ranks 30th in the nation in tempo. The Flames are good at attacking the rim and getting to the line. That's important with the new experimental rules in this tournament. Getting rid of 1 and 1's and putting in all 2 shot fouls will definitely lead to more points. UIC shoots over 71% from the line. 

Stony Brook tends to play at a fairly slow pace, but in their non-conference games they did get out and run with some teams. I think their tempo looks slower than it truly is based on Stony Brook playing in a conference where everyone stalls. 

Stony Brook shoots 72.2% from the line, which is a big help with the new rules. 

I think this one gets to 150, which gives us some value on the line here. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Gonzaga Bulldogs take on the South Dakota State Jackrabbits in the first round. South Dakota State ended the season playing very well, but the jump from playing Summit League competition to Gonzaga is massive.

South Dakota State scored at will through the Summit League play, but that is largely because no one in that conference is any good at defense. Take a look at how South Dakota State scored against teams in the non-conference slate. They only scored 58 against UC Irvine. They scored 59 against E Tennessee State. They scored 53 against Cal. 

Gonzaga has the second ranked defense in the country. The Bulldogs have so much athleticism on defense and they should hound South Dakota State here.

The move up to 156 points gives me plenty of value here. Gonzaga should score a lot here, but a total of 156 can be hard to reach when one team is struggling to score. I think 150 is about right.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Early Bird Special* The Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Princeton Tigers get things tipped off in the Round of 64 with this battle. Princeton is a dangerous team given their unique style of play. The Tigers will look to slow the game down as much as possible.

Princeton played a number of games that were paced to less than 60 possessions this year. In fact, four of their last seven games have played to 59 possessions or slower. I think this will be another game that is that slow.

Notre Dame plays in the ACC where most of the teams try to push the pace. The Fighting Irish are one of the slowest teams in the league. In this one, Notre Dame will get to play their preferred style.

This one is on a neutral floor where shooting percentages are typically lower than normal. Neither team gets to the free throw line much at all. I think this number is several points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Iowa Hawkeyes were the fastest paced team in the Big Ten this year. Iowa had trouble finding opponents who wanted to run with them most of the year in the Big Ten. They won't have that same problem here.

South Dakota ranks 27th in the country in least time on average to put up a shot. The Coyotes are going to run with Iowa here. The Hawkeyes are 21st in that same category.

This is a smaller postseason tournament game, and these have trended strongly to the over in recent years. The early rounds of these games have trended over at a really high rate. It's important to note that the rules have been changed for these tournaments as well. There won't be any 1 and 1's, just two shot bonuses. That certainly helps scoring. Additionally, the clock will reset to only 20 seconds instead of 30 after a foul on the floor or a kicked ball violation. The NCAA continues to try to push for more scoring. 

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Wyoming Cowboys rank 11th in the nation in tempo. This team has been great at turning every game into a track meet this year. 

Eastern Washington is a great offense. They have shooters on the outside and a great scorer inside in Wiley. The Eagles have been able to shoot the ball well all year long. They generally play at a slower tempo, but their offense is good and their defense is very bad.

The smaller postseason tournaments (CIT, NIT, CBI) have been great to over bettors in recent years. It's important to note that the rules have been changed for these tournaments as well. There won't be any 1 and 1's, just two shot bonuses. That certainly helps scoring. Additionally, the clock will reset to only 20 seconds instead of 30 after a foul on the floor or a kicked ball violation. The NCAA continues to try to push for more scoring. 

Plenty of pace and scoring chances in this one.

Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play Over* The Rice Owls rank in the top 25 in the country in tempo. San Francisco ranks as a slightly quicker than average team in terms of tempo.

This is a smaller postseason tournament game, and these have trended strongly to the over in recent years. The early rounds of these games have trended over at a really high rate. It's important to note that the rules have been changed for these tournaments as well. There won't be any 1 and 1's, just two shot bonuses. That certainly helps scoring. Additionally, the clock will reset to only 20 seconds instead of 30 after a foul on the floor or a kicked ball violation. The NCAA continues to try to push for more scoring. 

I am tracking a system where both teams play at an average tempo of 68 or higher and the home team shoots 42% or higher from the floor. If the total is set at 132.5 or higher in a game like this in the first two rounds of the smaller postseason tournaments, the over is 44-17 in the last 61 games. 

Here, we have a great shooting team in Rice playing on their home floor. The Owls will force the tempo and San Francisco isn't likely to stall the game out. Rice is the favorite and the better team, so I expect them to control the game.

A fast paced high scoring game here in this early small tournament game.

Take the over big. 

*4 Star Play Over* The smaller postseason tournaments (CIT, NIT, CBI) have been great to over bettors in recent years. It's important to note that the rules have been changed for these tournaments as well. There won't be any 1 and 1's, just two shot bonuses. That certainly helps scoring. Additionally, the clock will reset to only 20 seconds instead of 30 after a foul on the floor or a kicked ball violation. The NCAA continues to try to push for more scoring. 

Utah Valley ranks 12th in the nation in overall tempo. They will force the pace in a big way here. Georgia Southern has been a team that plays to the pace of their opponent all year.

Both teams are very good at getting to the line, and with two shot fouls every time the points should come in quickly here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UC Davis Aggies have had trouble with offensive efficiency all year. NC Central isn't a prolific offensive team by any means either. Both of these teams are significantly better on defense than they are on offense.

This game is played at UD Arena, and it has been a really good gym for unders in the past few years. The pressure of this game has led to some really low scoring contests in the First Four contests in recent years. 

I see two teams who defend well without fouling and two offenses that struggle with jump shots to start with. Add in the fact that this game is played at a new venue to them, and the nerves of the NCAA Tournament.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Tuesday Total DOMINATION* The Monmouth Hawks and Ole Miss Rebels meet in the first round of the NIT on Tuesday night. 

Monmouth ranks as the 22nd fastest paced team in the country. Ole Miss comes in as the 33rd quickest in the country. This game should be an all out track meet. Every year, these early NIT/CBI/CIT games are played at a much faster tempo than regular season games.

The smaller postseason tournaments (CIT, NIT, CBI) have been great to over bettors in recent years. It's important to note that the rules have been changed for these tournaments as well. There won't be any 1 and 1's, just two shot bonuses. That certainly helps scoring. Additionally, the clock will reset to only 20 seconds instead of 30 after a foul on the floor or a kicked ball violation. The NCAA continues to try to push for more scoring. It will make a few points of difference, and that's key here.

Look for a very high scoring game from two good free throw shooting squads. Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA Monday MONEY* The Milwaukee Bucks have drastically slowed down their tempo of late. Milwaukee is playing at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA in their last ten games. 

The Bucks also rank in the top ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency for the last ten games. Milwaukee has been putting in a lot more of an effort on the defensive end, and that has led to their much better play of late.

Memphis ranks as the sixth best defense in the NBA for the year as a whole when it comes to defensive efficiency. In their last few games, Memphis has been bad defensively. Who they have played has something to do with it though (Houston and LAC for example). The Grizzlies rank as the third slowest paced team in the NBA for the year as a whole.

I think Memphis brings better effort in this one after a recent bad stretch. This game should be played at a slow pace. The early sharp money is on the under.

The under is 5-0 in the Bucks last 5 games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 following an ATS win. The under is 10-1-1 in the last 12 meetings between these teams.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Miami Heat have relied on point guard Goran Dragic very heavily this year. Dragic is questionable for this game with an eye injury. Dragic had extreme swelling around his eye last night. He will likely either miss this game, or be less than 100 percent. 

Indiana has completely changed the way they play of late. They ranked as one of the top ten in tempo through the first few months of the year. Of late, the Pacers have slowed the game down a lot. The oddsmakers have had a hard time adjusting their totals.

Miami and Indiana are both moving slowly of late, in fact. In their last five contests, Miami ranks 25th in tempo and Indiana ranks 27th. In that same period, both of these teams rank in the top ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency.

I think this total is several points too high.

The under is 4-0 in the Heat's last 4 road games. The under is 5-0 in Miami's last 5 following a win by 10 points or more. The under is 4-0 in the Pacers last 4 vs. the NBA Southeast. A 13-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Play of the Day* Cincinnati and SMU square off in the AAC title game on Sunday afternoon. These two teams play a very similar style and recent match ups between these two have been highly competitive. 

Cincinnati has one of the top 8 defenses in the country. The Bearcats make you work extremely hard to get good looks. SMU is also very good defensively.

Both of these teams rank in the bottom 25 teams in the country in terms of pace of play. The tempo should be slow all the way in this one. 

Long-term the under has been a great play in conference tournament finals. Both of these teams are playing for the third straight day, and in this spot in conference title games the under is 61% in the past ten years. That's a huge sample size, and a great winning percentage.

Look for a close game where the defenses play extremely well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Creighton/Villanova Total DOMINATION* The Creighton Blue Jays take on the Villanova Wildcats in the Big East Tournament final at Madison Square Garden on Saturday night.

There isn't a building in the country better for unders than Madison Square Garden, especially when it comes to college players. The under is hitting at a little better than 65% in the last five years when MSG is a neutral site for college contests.

Villanova nearly lost on Friday night, and they should come out focused here. The Wildcats have the best defense in the conference. They are particularly good at defending without fouling (first in the country). They also do a great job defending beyond the arc. 

Creighton settles for a lot of jumpers, and I don't think that will be a good formula against this Villanova defense. 

Villanova is great at slowing the game down and I think they will dictate the pace here. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Early Bird Special* The Rhode Island Rams and Davidson Wildcats met twice in the regular season. They scored 129 in the first game. They scored 124 in regulation in the second game. 

Davidson plays at an average pace. Rhode Island is slowing things down of late. The Rams are consistently playing games to about 64 or 65 possessions. The Rams are also playing much better defense than they were earlier this year. Rhode Island is allowing only 0.95 points per possession.

Davidson relies heavily on three point field goal attempts. Rhode Island ranks third in the nation in 3 point field goal defense. Opponents are shooting only 29.2% from 3 against the Rams.

Davidson's defense is much improved from a year ago, and their shooting has been worse.

This game is played at PPG Paints Arena, which is a hockey arena. No doubt this is a tougher shooting backdrop than these two teams are accustomed to.

I had this one four points lower. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Eastern Washington Eagles and Weber State Wildcats meet in the semifinals of the Big Sky Conference Tournament here. I think these are the best two teams in the conference. Both of these teams like to play at a slow pace. 

The two regular season games finished at 154 and 137 points. Both had a slow tempo, but they shot well and had a foul fest in the 154 point game. 

This game means so much to both teams that I think the tempo slows down even more. A neutral floor helps as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Both of the regular season meetings went way over this total. Nevada has the best offense in the Mountain West, and it isn't even close. Fresno State fouls a bunch, and Nevada is great at getting to the line. 

Fresno State won both regular season meetings, but Nevada is the better team. Nevada is favored by six and this one has the potential for a late foul fest that would help the over in a big way. 

I had this one at 150. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Both of the regular season meetings went way over this total. Florida State was able to get the tempo they wanted in those games.

Notre Dame is excellent offensively, but they aren't very good on defense. Florida State will get points in transition, and they should get second chance opportunities as well.

This is played at Barclays Center in New York. The over has done really well here in a small sample size.

I had 154.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Hidden GEM Total* This one is way off most people's radars, but I think this one holds some significant value. 

The Toyota Center is a very good under gym. It's a spacious arena and it is known for being difficult for college shooters. That is especially true when you consider the SWAC teams play in small gyms normally. Now, they'll be playing in front of a massive gym with almost no people in it. That's a good scenario for unders in the long term.

In this game, Alcorn State and Southern meet. The two regular season games between these two both stayed under the total. One finished at 138 and one at 135. Alcorn State slowed the pace down in both contests. 

While these teams aren't great defensively, they are better than most SWAC teams. The tough shooting backdrop and a high number make this a good value play. I had this lined at 136 points.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* UC Irvine has the best defense in the conference. Irvine is good at controlling the pace and they want to play slowly. Long Beach State started the year out playing fast, but of late they have definitely slowed down.

One of the regular season meetings was 149 and one was 135. This game is played at Honda Center which has been a great under venue over the years. That alone should lower the posted total by at least 3 or 4 points.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Xavier Musketeers beat the Butler Bulldogs in impressive fashion last night. They won by slowing the game down and playing some great defense. That's how they'll have to do it here against Creighton as well.

Creighton is a jump shot heavy team, and this game is played in Madison Square Garden, which is a very tough arena for shooters. The under is hitting at better than 65% in the last 50 college games played at MSG.

Xavier and Creighton played one game under this total and one over this total this year. The shooting numbers were really bad in one of the games and excellent in the other. I think it is unlikely we'll see excellent shooting numbers in this game played at Madison Square Garden.

Look for both defenses to come ready to play. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* PPG Paints Arena is a hockey arena in Pittsburgh, and this place definitely has a bad shooting backdrop. It is hard for shooters to shoot a high percentage here.

George Washington lost twice in the regular season to Richmond, but I think they have a shot here. They will slow the game down.

Richmond's last four games of the year have been their slowest paced games, so I believe they will be ok with the slower pace.

I had this one at 138. Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Milwaukee Bucks and Indiana Pacers meet in a divisional battle on Friday night in Milwaukee. 

For the year as a whole, Indiana ranks at exactly the midway point for NBA teams in terms of tempo. The Pacers ranked in the top ten for several months. They have changed their ways of late. Indiana now ranks as one of the five slowest teams in the league in their last 10 games. 

Milwaukee is actually playing at the single slowest pace of any team in the league in their last eight games. 

A total set this high with teams playing that slow means you have to have some great shooting numbers to get over the total. In the last eight games, both of these teams rank in the top 12 in the NBA in defensive efficiency. 

The last game between these two finished at 216 points, but the teams combined to make 27 three pointers and Milwaukee was 17/31 from 3.

With both teams playing better on defense of late, and playing some more defense, I think this one stays lower.

The under is 6-0 in the Pacers last 6 road games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following an ATS win. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more. The under is 4-0 in the Bucks last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a win. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 100 points or more last game. A 32-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The Boise State Broncos have played a whopping 27 straight games that have gone over this posted total. Their first lined game of the year stayed under against College of Charleston, and every game since has gone over this total.

Boise State is first in the league in getting to the line. Chandler Hutchison's massive improvement as a player has really helped this offense thrive this year. The Broncos have several guys who can create on their own.

San Diego State shot the ball horribly last night. Expect some improvement tonight against a Boise State defense that isn't very good. The Aztecs aren't nearly as good defensively this year as they have been in the past either. 

Look for Boise State to have a 28th straight game go over this number. 

Take the over. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Total of WEEK* The Providence Friars take on the Creighton Blue Jays on Thursday night at Madison Square Garden in New York City. 

Madison Square Garden is probably the best under gym in the country, especially when it comes to college teams playing on the court. It's a distinct shooting backdrop that is so much different than everything else the players are accustomed to, that it can really throw things off on the jumpers. 

The under is 49-27 in the last 76 neutral site games played at Madison Square Garden in college hoops (note this doesn't count St. John's games when they are the home team). 

Creighton is a jump shot heavy team and I don't expect them to knock down as many jumpers here. They were only 8/24 from 3 point range in their game at MSG last year. 

Providence has slowed the tempo down against Creighton twice this year. The Friars have a good defense, and they don't want to get into a track meet with Creighton here. 

In a game that means so much to both teams, it is interesting to have a lined total several points higher than either regular season meeting finished. That is especially true with this game being played at Madison Square Garden.

Take the under big. TOP Total of Week

*3 Star Play Over* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights and Northwestern Wildcats met twice in the regular season. Those two games finished at 134 and 129 points. This one deserves to be a bit lower since it is a neutral site game, but this total is too low.

Both of these teams excel at offensive rebounding. In one of the meetings between these two this year, both teams had 20 or more offensive rebounds. That's an astounding number, and when you are getting that many second chance opportunities, I have to take an over that is this low.

Both teams have played almost all of their games this year over this total. Look for this one to get into the upper 120's.

Take the over. 

*5 Star NCAA BB Hidden GEM TOP Total* The Cal Poly Mustangs are very good at slowing down the pace of the game. Cal Poly will work hard to slow things down in this one. 

UC Davis pushes the tempo when they can, but the Aggies aren't efficient at all on offense. UC Davis is excellent on defense. The Aggies have allowed only 0.968 points per possession in Big West play this year.

Honda Center is the venue for this game, and this is a huge hockey arena that is tough for shooters. That is especially true when it is players from a small conference like the Big West where they are accustomed to playing in a gym with 3,000 seats. The Honda Center will be mostly empty here, and a huge arena with a bunch of empty seats is a good equation for an under.

The two regular season meetings were 144 and 132. Interestingly, the total was set at 134.5 and 137 in those two games. Why would this be higher when this is played in a tough shooting gym and we know that games are generally lower scoring with a lot on the line? This is a win or go home game for both.

Take the under big. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Early Bird Special* The MTSU Blue Raiders are great at controlling the pace of the game. MTSU is going to slow this game down. They were successful in playing a very slow pace against UTSA in their regular season game and they should be again here.

UTSA is a team that typically plays to the pace of their opponent, which is good for us here. UTSA is also the worst shooting team in Conference USA by a wide margin. The Roadrunners aren't likely to find many easy shots against a MTSU defense that allowed only 0.9378 points per possession in conference action.

The first game between these two finished at 128 points, and that is a little misleading. That game was an epic foul fest in the last minute to get the game to 128 points. It was pacing to around 110 or 115 points for a long time.

This is a tough gym for the shooters, and this is an early start, which is good for the under as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Southern Miss Golden Eagles are a terrible team. They have no depth and they have to slow the pace down as much as possible. They have successfully slowed the game down twice against Rice. The first meeting finished at 119, and the second finished at 143 after an overtime session. It was 134 before the extra session.

Rice shoots more 3 pointers than anyone else in the conference. That's a bad thing for them here as Legacy Arena has a tough shooters backdrop and the under has been great here in the past. Last year, Rice made only 2 of their 18 three point field goal attempts in their conference tournament game in this building.

The large spread is a big help as well. In fact, neutral site games in the postseason played with a spread of 11.5 or larger have gone nearly 60% to the under in the last five years.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This game fits into several nice under systems. First, it's being played in Legacy Arena, which has been a solid under gym. It's a huge gym holding more than 17,000 people, and that's a negative for shooters since almost no one will be in the seats. It creates a more difficult shooting backdrop and an awkward environment in general.

UTSA is the worst shooting team in the league. Western Kentucky fouls the least of any team in the league. The Hilltoppers slow the pace down, and UTSA plays to the pace of their opponent most of the time.

The early start time is a good thing for the under based on historical trends as well. In addition, Western Kentucky relies heavily on 3 pointers, and teams that rely heavily on the 3 ball have been good under plays on neutral courts in the past.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Syracuse Orange and Miami Hurricanes meet in Brooklyn for the ACC Tournament. This is a new venue to both teams, and unfamiliarity isn't good for shooting numbers on the whole.

The last five times these two teams have met the game has stayed under this posted total. In fact, the highest scoring game during that span was a 128 point final. I don't see any reason to expect a neutral floor where the guys haven't played to help get this one over the total.

Both of these teams turn it over quite a bit, which hurts offensive efficiency and helps the under. Miami is slowing the tempo down to a crawl in their last few games, and Syracuse's zone slows the game down as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Gonzaga Bulldogs and St. Mary's Gaels played two regular season games this year. Gonzaga shot over 60% in one of them and 52.3% in the other. 

St. Mary's Coach Randy Bennett said to the press that he has been stressing defense in a major way before this game. He knows the team needs to slow Gonzaga's offense down both from a tempo standpoint and just in general make them take tougher shots. 

In the long term, taking an under when both teams just played the day before has been very profitable. In fact, with a total of 135.5 or lower, the under is hitting at 59% in the past ten years in this situation. 

A neutral court is a big help too. These players aren't as accustomed to this shooting backdrop. 

St. Mary's will slow the game down, and I think the shooting percentages will be lower than the first two meetings.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Sacramento State Hornets play at the slowest pace in the Big Sky Conference. Idaho State has been a team that plays to the pace of their opponent. Idaho State and Sacramento State's first game was played to a pace of only 62 possessions, which is very slow.

Sacramento State has seen six of their last seven games stay under this posted total. They are the better team here, and I think they will dictate the style of play in this one.

This one is played at Reno at a neutral court. That knocks the total down a couple points since the teams aren't accustomed to the arena or the shooting backdrop.

I expect a sloppy game here, and I think the total should be in the upper 130's.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Coppin State Eagles and Howard Bison meet in the first game of the MEAC Tournament in Norfolk. This game is played at the Norfolk Scope Arena. This arena has been noted for for being a good under gym in the past. 

There won't be many people in the gym, and in a big gym like this one that is generally a bad thing for shooters. 

The first meeting between these two was 153 with shooting numbers much higher than their season averages, which is what gives us extra value on today's number.

Both teams have played slowly this year, and Howard is one of the worst offenses in college basketball. This number is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* In general, playing overs in the postseason can be a little risky. Still, there is a big difference between playing overs on a neutral floor and playing overs on a regular home court of one of the teams. 

In this case, the game is being played at Vermont. Vermont is a tremendous team led by star freshman Anthony Lamb. Trae Bell-Haynes is a star at the point guard spot as well. Vermont is averaging a really impressive 1.154 points per possession in the conference this year. 

New Hampshire is averaging 1.082 points per possession in the conference as well. 

Both regular season meetings went over this posted total. While both teams do play slowly, they are good offensively and this total is extremely low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* I understand why this line has been bet down, but it is too low for me to pass up the over now. Many are seeing this as a chance to bet the under based on both teams playing multiple days in a row, but the past history of these two teams suggests this number is too low.

The two regular season meetings between these two finished 83-79 and 72-66. The game that finished 72-66 saw both teams shoot it far worse than normal from the field. East Tennessee State has been able to push the pace in both games, but their shots weren't falling. Expect more of their shots to be falling here. 

This game sits at the 5 or 5.5 point spread range, which means a late foul fest is definitely a possibility. That is especially true since this is the game that decides who goes to the NCAA Tournament.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Atlanta Hawks are coming off a terrible defensive effort against the Cleveland Cavs on Friday night. Cleveland set a new NBA record with 25 made three pointers in that game (out of 46 attempts). 

The Hawks have been an up and down defense this year, but they have the talent to defend well. I think that 135 point number that the Cavs dropped on them will help them be more motivated on the defensive end in this game.

Indiana has to decided to slow down the pace of late. The Pacers are in the bottom five in the league in tempo in their last eight games. 

Sunday early games have been great under plays in the long term in the NBA. This is an angle that sits at almost 56% for the last ten years. 

The under is 6-0 in the Pacers last 6 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more.

The under is 4-0 in the Hawks last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 following a loss. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more last game.

In all, a 31-0 angle. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* This is a win or go home game for these teams from the MAAC. Siena gets the home court advantage here. This is played at the Times Union Center, which has been one of the best under venues in college basketball the last few seasons.

Fairfield was pushing the pace as fast as they could early in the year. The Stags have decided to change things up lately. Fairfield has played 3 of their last 4 games to a pace of 65 possessions or less. That's after playing most of their games to a tempo of 75 or higher early in the year. 

The most recent meeting between these two teams was a 63-54 final score. I don't think this one will be that low, but I do expect a relatively low scoring game.

Both of these teams are much improved defensively from a year ago, and these defenses should come through in this big game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Weber State Wildcats and Montana State Bobcats are similar teams. Both of these teams shoot the ball very well. Weber State ranks among the best in the country in effective field goal percentage. Montana State shoots it really well from long range.

Both of these teams are really weak on defense. Montana State ranks in the top five in most fouls committed in the country, and Weber State shoots 76% from the line in Big Sky play.

This is a late conference game that doesn't mean a lot to either team. This a conference where you have to win the league to get a NCAA Tournament berth. 

Expect a relatively quick tempo and good shooting.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The North Carolina/Duke rivalry is better than any other rivalry in college basketball. Duke will look to slow the pace down some here. The Blue Devils successfully slowed things down in the first meeting and it was played at only 68 possessions. 

Duke and Carolina played two games in the 140's last year, and I think this total is inflated based on how the first game went. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UAB Blazers have shot the ball extremely well against the weakest defenses in Conference USA so far this year. FIU is by far the worst defense in the conference. 

UAB scored 85 points in a losing effort at FIU in the first meeting this year. If they get close to that number here, the over should be good. 

FIU has picked up their tempo in recent weeks. They have absolutely nothing left to play for in the regular season, and games involving teams playing for nothing have historically been much higher scoring.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Valpo Crusaders are without star player Alec Peters, who is arguably the best player in the conference. Without their leading scorer, I expect Valpo to try to win with their defense, which is excellent.

Milwaukee plays at the slowest pace of any team in the Horizon League. Milwaukee shoots a bunch of 3's, and Valpo is great at guarding beyond the arc. 

Both games in the regular season stayed below this total. This game is played at a hockey arena where the shooting backdrop is very tough.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* In the last ten years, games between two teams with a 55% win rate or less in the final two games of the regular season have gone over 58% of the time. 

This one fits in nicely to that system as Marshall loves to run and gun, and North Texas has nothing to play for. North Texas has sped up their pace of play drastically throughout the course of the year, and I don't see them trying to slow things down here.

The tempo here is likely to be 80 possessions or faster. Marshall should tear up this really bad North Texas defense. I think Marshall has a chance to hit 100 in this one. 

The over is high, but not high enough.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both of these teams are better on defense than offense. Additionally, these two both rank in the bottom ten in the country in free throws attempted. That is a big help when you have a low under like this one.

The two regular season meetings were 119 and 130. I had this number at 124. This being played at a neutral site is a good thing for the under.

Santa Clara and San Francisco are major rivals, and I think this sets up as a slow paced game between two teams desperate to win and move on in the tournament.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Wichita State is clearly the best team in this conference. They should win this game and then they'll have to play again tomorrow. That should make them let off the gas a little quicker than normal here.

The Scottrade Center has been the single best under arena in the country in the past ten years. This is a terrible backdrop for shooters.

Missouri State will work to slow the game down as long as they can in this one. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Utah Utes have been firing on all cylinders offensively of late. The Utes rank ninth in the country in effective field goal percentage. 

Stanford's defense has really fallen apart of late. Colorado torched them for 91 points in a slow paced game in their last contest. The Cardinal have been much worse on defense away from home.

Both of these teams have played relatively quick when they get the opportunity to. There are several teams who slow the tempo in the Pac 12, but here both teams will get a chance to move quickly. 

I had this one several points higher.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Northern Iowa Panthers have had some extremely low scoring games this year. Northern Iowa is averaging only 0.936 points per possession in the conference. The Panthers rely way too much on Koch and Morgan. 

Northern Iowa has scored 55 points or less in 5 of their last 8 games. This Panthers offense is really struggling right now.

The Scottrade Center hosts the MVC Tournament, and the under is now 53-29 in the last 82 games played there. It's a terrible gym for shooters.

Missouri State plays very slowly and relies on outside shooting, which is a bad fit for this gym.

I think this is a tight very low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The James Madison Dukes and Drexel Dragons meet at North Charleston Arena for this first round CAA Tournament matchup.

I've followed a really nice system for conference tournaments on a neutral floor. When there is a game between two teams with a winning percentage of 32% or less, the under is an impressive 29-10 in the last 39 situations. This game fits nicely into that system.

North Charleston Arena is a big place that isn't kind to shooters in general. These teams have never played there before. That definitely helps the under on the whole.

I had this a few points lower. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Cleveland State Vikings have been great at keeping games low scoring for a very long time. Cleveland State always plays at a slow tempo, and the Vikings have the third best defense in the Horizon League. 

Youngstown State is a high scoring team, but they are actually a little worse on offense and slightly better on defense this year than they have been in recent years. 

The two meetings this year between these teams finished at 131 and 124 points. In fact, the last 12 meetings between these two teams have stayed below this posted total. Most of them haven't even been close to this total. 

This one is played on a neutral floor and Joe Louis Arena is noted for a bad shooting backdrop with it being a hockey arena. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Brown Bears and Columbia Lions met earlier this year and the posted total was 157.5. The game finished at 161 points. Why would this total be posted so much lower than the first meeting? I see some value here.

Brown has by far the worst defense in the Ivy League. The Bears have managed to make a lot of subpar offenses look really good this year. 

Columbia prefers to play quickly, but they have been slowed down by their last few opponents. They'll get to play quickly here. I think Columbia's recent low scoring games gives us extra value here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Princeton Tigers have been an under machine of late. The under is 9-1 in their last 10 games, and the one that went over went over by half a point. Princeton has slowed their tempo down drastically as they are short handed. It was worked out really well for the Tigers.

Harvard is the second best team in the league, and they are the only ones with a chance to catch Princeton. The Crimson are the second best defense in the Ivy League. They are allowing only 0.96 points per possession.

Princeton is the best defense in the league. They are allowing only 0.895 points per possession. 

The first meeting between these two saw a final of 57-56. Neither of these teams get to the line much, and with a slow pace and good defense I expect a very low scoring game. 

In the Ivy League since 2005, games between two teams with a 10-2 record or better in the league who are matched up against each other in March have stayed under the total in 7 out of 8 contests.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cal Poly Mustangs put up a bunch of long range jumpers. They have a lot of young guys who were struggling shooting the ball early in the year, but they are shooting it well of late. Cal Poly coasted to an 85-71 at CS Northridge a few weeks ago.

Cal State Northridge plays at the fastest pace of anyone in the conference. Northridge is 329th in the country in defensive efficiency. Cal Poly is 331st in the country in defensive efficiency. There should be a lot of open jumpers in this game. 

This game fits a nice long-term system of two subpar teams playing a late regular season game. This is a system that suggests playing the over in the last couple regular season games between teams who have had a mediocre or poor season. Long-term this is a system that has cashed at a 59% clip. 

Both teams foul way more than the average team. Northridge ranks first in the nation in free throw attempts per game. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Bradley Braves and Drake Bulldogs meet in the first round of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament on Thursday night. This tournament is played at the Scottrade Center.

There aren't many places with a worse shooting backdrop than the Scottrade Center. The background here is far different than the average gym, and it has made shooting percentages very low here and the under is a whopping 52-28 in the last 80 games played in this arena.

These two played last week at Drake and the posted total was 144 or 144.5. Why would the total be higher when played on a neutral court that is terrible for shooters? Also, this is win or go home time, which usually slows down the pace of play as well.

These are two poor shooting teams, and in this arena I have to take the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Memphis Tigers and Tulane Green Wave played to a pace of 76 possessions in their game earlier this year. Ugly shooting numbers for Tulane kept that game to just 139 points total. There were also only 34 free throws attempted in that game (solidly below the average).

Tulane is dead last in the conference in two point field goal percentage defense. Memphis goes to the rim a lot, and I think they'll get a lot of easy shots here. 

Tulane plays at the fastest pace of any team in the conference. Memphis is likely to be glad to push the pace and run it up on Tulane after some disappointing losses of late.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The North Texas Mean Green have picked up their tempo a lot down the stretch. Western Kentucky plays relatively slowly, but they have scored at a very efficient rate at home.

This game fits a nice long-term system of two subpar teams playing a late regular season game. This is a system that suggests playing the over in the last couple regular season games between teams who have had a mediocre or poor season. Long-term this is a system that has cashed at a 59% clip. 

I don't see any reason to expect much defense here. Both teams are giving up 1.11 points per possession on the year defensively. They both rank in the bottom 75 in the nation in that category.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UTSA Roadrunners have been very inefficient shooting the ball this year, but their shooting numbers are slowly rising of late. UTSA has also been playing quicker in recent games. 

Charlotte plays extremely fast. They rank in the top 25 in the country in pace of play. They will try to dictate the pace here, and I think they'll be able to.

This game fits a nice long-term system of two subpar teams playing a late regular season game. This is a system that suggests playing the over in the last couple regular season games between teams who have had a mediocre or poor season. Long-term this is a system that has cashed at a 59% clip. 

I think this one should get into the 150's.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NHL Total DOMINATION*

The Capitals boast one of the best offense in the NHL.

Washington plays with extreme pace and confidence with every line and
will certainly contribute big time to this total.

The Capitals put 30 plus shots on net per game and are scoring 3.3
goals per contest. If it's not Ovechkin, you get Oshie. If it's not
Oshie, you get Backstrom. This Capitals team is so deep and can strike
in bunches.

Don't overlook New Jersey either. The Devils put in back to back 3
goal performances and are finally getting a push on net.

G Cory Schneider has been shaky this year, posting a GAA of 2.67. That
isn't going to pan out here against this Capitals team by any means.

Over is 18-7-5 in Capitals last 30 vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 4-0-2 in Devils last 6 vs. Metropolitan.

The selection will need Washington to strike often. They're certainly
up for the task and should be able to have a field day with this
Devils defense. Getting 1 or 2 from the Devils here is all we need.

Grab the over in this one. Take Over 5

*3 Star Play Under* This game is played at the Scottrade Center in St. Louis. There aren't many places with a worse shooting backdrop than the Scottrade Center. The background here is far different than the average gym, and it has made shooting percentages very low here and the under is a whopping 52-28 in the last 80 games played in this arena.

Evansville and Indiana State are averaging 0.99 and 0.96 points per possession, so these are two of the worst offenses in the conference to start with. Add in the really tough neutral floor and I like this one to stay low scoring.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Quinnipiac Bobcats and Niagara Purple Eagles met twice in the regular season. The final score of those two games finished at 159 points and 170 points. That alone would suggest this total is about right. However, if you consider that this is a win or go home game and this is played in a terrible venue for shooters, this total is too high.

This is played in Albany at the Times Union Center. The under is 28-12 in the last 40 games at this building when it is a neutral site. Shooters have a rough time here consistently.

Since both of these teams rank in the bottom half of the country in offensive efficiency, 165 is a lot of points to have to reach with a poor gym for shooters.

Take the under. 

*4 Star VCU/Dayton Totals MONEY* The Dayton Flyers and VCU Rams rank number one and number two in the Atlantic 10 in defensive efficiency. The first game between these two finished at 141 points after a major foul fest in the last few minutes. It was pacing for a score far lower than that.

This game fits a nice late regular season under system where both teams have a great (64% or better) winning percentage and both teams have a lot to play for. In these spots, the defenses generally play well. This system is hitting 56.5% for the past ten years. 

I see a close game here, and I think this one stays in the 130's.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Toronto Raptors aren't the same without Kyle Lowry. They are playing at the second slowest tempo in the league in their last five games. Toronto has scored 94 points or less in 3 of their last 5 games. 

Toronto and Washington both rank in the top ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last five games. They rank 14th and 16th in offensive efficiency. 

I think the oddsmakers are having a hard time adjusting the totals without Lowry in the lineup for Toronto. Their last game against New York was just 92-91.

The first meeting between these two teams this year finished at 216 points. Note that Lowry had 18 points there. Also, the two teams shot 56% and 58% from the floor. They shouldn't shoot it that well here.

The under is 11-1 in Toronto's last 12 vs. the Eastern Conference.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* This isn't a game I would play the over on during the middle of the regular season. This is a low over though between two teams who have little to play for right now. They are in the last week of the regular season, and they care a lot more about the conference tournament than this game. 

This game fits a system I've tracked where two teams who have little to play for late in the regular season trend strongly toward the over. It's a system that has hit 59% of the time in the past ten years. 

The first meeting between these two went comfortably over the posted total.

UConn has been shooting the ball really well of late. The Huskies defense has regressed of late. East Carolina is much better offensively at home.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* This game fits a system I've tracked where two teams who have little to play for late in the regular season trend strongly toward the over. It's a system that has hit 59% of the time in the past ten years. 

UMass has played really fast all year. The Minutemen have finally started to shoot the ball a little better of late. They continue to foul at a really high rate, so Richmond will be on the line a bunch here.

Richmond is playing much faster this year. They rank in the top 75 in the country in tempo. 

UMass has seen 7 of their last 8 games go over this total. Richmond has seen 7 of their last 10 go over the total.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The George Mason Patriots really shoot the ball well. They have sped up their tempo a great deal as well. This is a team that is playing faster than the average team in the country, where they previously were a team that stalled. 

Duquesne is one of the fastest paced teams in the country every single year, and they are once again very fast paced this season. They also have the worst defense in the A 10, and George Mason should shoot it really well against them. 

This game fits a system I've tracked where two teams who have little to play for late in the regular season trend strongly toward the over. It's a system that has hit 59% of the time in the past ten years. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Colorado State Rams are tied for first in the Mountain West Conference. This time of the year you can find games where teams have nothing to play for, but Colorado State has to keep winning games. 

The fact that they need this game means it is more likely they will be invested on the defensive end of the floor. Colorado State is allowing only 0.996 points per possession so far this year in Mountain West play. 

Wyoming loves to run, but the Cowboys aren't very efficient on offense. They rank in the bottom half of the country in offensive efficiency.

The first meeting between these two finished at 151, and that was with 57 free throw attempts. My numbers had this game a few points lower.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Miami Hurricanes have really slowed down the pace in their recent games. Their last five games have been played to a pace of 63 or less, which is very slow. 

Virginia Tech has slowed down considerably of late as well. The Hokies are without one of their best players in Chris Clarke. They aren't particularly deep, and I think this has been a conscious effort to slow things down. 

The first game saw the final get to 142 with both teams scoring a bunch at the end in a foul fest. The game had paced to a much lower number. In that one, Clarke had 13 points and 5 boards.

Miami ranks 18th in the country in defensive efficiency. 

These two teams both rank in the top 30 in the country in defending without fouling. 

Take the under here.