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Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
11-11-17	Dartmouth v. Quinnipiac UNDER 149.5		77-78	Loss	-115	14 h 43 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Quinnipiac Bobcats have a new coach this year. They were coached by Tom Moore last year. He coached the team to crash the boards and run as fast as possible. That led to constant run outs for the opposition. It led to a bunch of high scoring games. Baker Dunleavy is the team's new coach. He is the son of Mike Dunleavy and he has been an assistant at Villanova under Jay Wright. Dunleavy will attempt to use the Villanova 4 out and 1 in game plan and win with spacing and solid defense. That should mean a much slower paced team than last year's Bobcats team. Dartmouth's Evan Boudreaux was one of the best players in the Ivy League. Before the season, Dartmouth's coach called Boudreaux "the guy we run our offense through" and "our leader", well that hit a speed bump when Boudreaux announced his intent to transfer on Thursday. Announcing two days before the season starts really makes it hard for this team to adjust its offensive game plan. This total is awfully high for a game between two teams with a bunch of offensive question marks. Take the under.
11-11-17	UL-Lafayette v. Ole Miss OVER 61.5		22-50	Win	100	118 h 49 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Ole Miss Rebels have scored 37 points in each of their last two games and that was against SEC defenses in Arkansas and Kentucky. Lafayette's defense is very weak. They allowed 66 points earlier this year against Tulsa. The Ragin' Cajuns like to play quickly. They are top 40 in the nation in tempo. Ole Miss is top 20 in the nation in pace. A fast paced game where Ole Miss puts up a big number here. Take the over.
11-10-17	Towson v. Old Dominion OVER 125.5		54-57	Loss	-110	18 h 32 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Old Dominion Monarchs played at the third slowest tempo in the country last year. The team plans to play noticeably faster this year. Don't expect track meets, but there should be value looking to go over their totals early on. Jeff Jones said, "We don't have a choice but to play faster" based on personnel this season. Towson has been among the leaders in the nation in free throw attempts per possession the last couple years. They crash the offensive glass. They also do a lot of fouling on defense though. Both those are obviously good for the over. Last year, these two met and the final was 61-58. Any kind of tempo change from Old Dominion should push this one higher, because last year's shooting numbers were subpar in that 61-58 game as well. Early in the season, refs are usually a little quicker with the whistle, and I imagine there will be a lot of free throws here. I'll go over this low total. Take the over.
11-09-17	Seahawks v. Cardinals UNDER 41.5		22-16	Win	100	19 h 39 m	Show
3 Star NFL Thursday Night THUNDER The Arizona Cardinals showed us a blueprint of what they want to try do in their win against San Francisco last week. Adrian Peterson had 37 carries in that game. That's a career high for Peterson, who is an old man in running back years. It's hard to imagine him being as good as he was last game, especially since he is up against a much better defense this time around. Clearly, Arizona doesn't feel very comfortable with Stanton under center, and I don't think Seattle will give up very many against them here. Russell Wilson is excellent, but he has a very bad offensive line in front of him. The Arizona defense is pretty good, and their numbers have been much better at home in recent seasons than on the road. Seattle's offense has no running game and Lacy is out for this one as well. There is a good system for Thursday night games in the NFL. When both teams are off only 4 days of rest and it is a division game in week 9 or later: the under is 16-5 in the last 21 games. I think we are in for another low scoring contest here. Take the under.
11-09-17	Cavs v. Rockets OVER 228		113-117	Win	100	18 h 11 m	Show
3 Star NBA on TNT Total SMASHER The Cleveland Cavs have allowed 112 points or more in 9 straight games. The Cavs rank dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Houston's offense started the season slowly, but they are on fire of late. Houston ranks first in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last three games. Who is number two? The Cleveland Cavs. Cleveland is playing faster this year, and Houston is always looking to run. I expect a fast tempo here and both offenses have clear edges at multiple spots vs. the opposing defense. I see a lot of open looks from 3 for Houston, and that usually means a big number for the Rockets. LeBron and company should put up a bunch here as well. Take the over.
11-08-17	Toledo v. Ohio OVER 62		10-38	Loss	-115	54 h 38 m	Show
4 Star Play Over Ohio has gotten much improved quarterback play this year. The Bobcats have been a really good offense in MAC play this season. Ohio has actually scored 42 points or more in 6 of their 9 games this year. They have scored 48, 48, and 45 in their last three games. Toledo has the best quarterback in the MAC in Logan Woodside. Their offense is very explosive. They have tremendous balance and break off a lot of big plays. I see a back and forth game with both offenses having the upper hand. Take the over. This line has moved a bit since I made the selection on Monday. I rate this as a 4 star play up to 65 and a 3 star play up to 69 points. Thank you.
11-07-17	Thunder v. Kings UNDER 206		86-94	Win	100	21 h 54 m	Show
4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION The Oklahoma City Thunder have been playing tremendous defense so far this year. Oklahoma City ranks second in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Sacramento ranks second to last in the NBA in offensive efficiency. They are likely to have a lot of trouble scoring in this one. Oklahoma City and Sacramento both rank among the five slowest teams in the NBA (pace of play) in the last five games. The Kings actually rank dead last in the NBA in pace for the season as a whole. Oklahoma City should be able to get their points here, but I don't see there being enough possessions for this one to go over the total without really high shooting numbers. Take the under.
11-07-17	Bowling Green v. Buffalo OVER 55		28-38	Win	100	29 h 8 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Buffalo Bulls have their quarterback back in the fold and this offense should be able to have success against a Bowling Green defense that is one of the worst in the nation. Bowling Green's offense has been much better in recent weeks, and Buffalo's defense has several key injuries. The tempo of both teams ranks among the 30 fastest in the country. With two bad defenses and a number this low, I'll take the over. Take the over here.
11-05-17	Heat v. Clippers UNDER 209		104-101	Win	100	15 h 38 m	Show
3 Star NBA Sunday Early Bird Special Sunday has easily been the best day of the week for unders in the NBA in the long run. Day game unders have the highest win percentage. This one is in Los Angeles, where it will be 12:35 pm when this one tips off. Day game unders 5pm EST or earlier start time with a total of 193 or higher are 34-15 (69.4%) in the last 49. Day game unders in general are above 55%. Miami's Hassan Whiteside is one of the best defensive players in the NBA. Whiteside missed several games earlier this year, and the Heat defense didn't look good. Since he has returned, the Heat have been a top ten defense in the league in terms of efficiency. Both the Clippers and the Heat play at a pace that is slightly slower than the league average. Look for this one to stay under the total. Take the under.
11-05-17	Colts v. Texans OVER 49		20-14	Loss	-110	121 h 51 m	Show
*THIS IS NO LONGER A RECOMMENDED PLAY DUE TO THE DESHAUN WATSON INJURY*
11-05-17	Ravens v. Titans UNDER 43		20-23	Push	0	44 h 57 m	Show
4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION The weather here should play a role. Nashville's forecast for Sunday is for 15 mph with gusts of 25 mph. That's plenty to make it much harder to throw the football. Neither one of these teams are very good at throwing the ball to start with, but the weather should make them even more one dimensional. Joe Flacco is cleared to play here, but he has been terrible this season. Flacco has a QBR better than one quarterback in the NFL (Kizer of the Browns). The Titans will load up the box here. Tennessee's rushing attack is solid, but the Ravens front seven is a good unit. I think they'll keep the Titans running game from breaking out. Both teams play slower than the league average and with a lot of run the clock will be ticking away. Take the under.
11-05-17	Broncos v. Eagles UNDER 42		23-51	Loss	-115	44 h 45 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Eagles offense has been excellent this year, but this is the best defense they have played. Denver's defensive numbers are a little tricky, since the offense has been so bad that it has put them in terrible positions. This is still a top two or three defense in the NFL. The move to Brock Osweiler likely helps the under. He is less likely to throw terrible interceptions than Siemian, but he is also less likely to make impressive throws. I consider him the more conservative option. Philadelphia's defense is healthier now than they were, and they should be solid against a Denver team that is likely to run the ball a lot here. Both teams have very good pass rushes compared to the offensive pass protection against them. Look for both quarterbacks to be under pressure throughout this game. I see both offenses struggling to get into the end zone here. Take the under.
11-04-17	BYU v. Fresno State UNDER 45		13-20	Win	100	130 h 45 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The BYU Cougars offense looked a lot better last week against San Jose State, but Fresno State is a whole different animal than San Jose State. This Fresno State defense has been tremendous this year. Fresno State ranks 19th in the country in yards per play allowed and that is despite the fact they played Washington and Alabama. Fresno State is coming off a disappointing loss to UNLV and I expect them to come out ready to go in this one. BYU's defense ranks in the top 50 in yards per play allowed. The Cougars aren't great on this side of the ball, but they are pretty good. Both teams play at a very slow pace. Fresno State ranks among the 20 slowest teams in the country. BYU ranks among the 25 slowest teams in the country (out of 130). Take the under.
11-04-17	Virginia Tech v. Miami-FL UNDER 50		10-28	Win	100	65 h 54 m	Show
4 Star CFB Miami/Virginia Tech Totals CASH The Miami Hurricanes and Virginia Tech Hokies are both very good teams. Both of them are led by their strong defenses. Miami is 18th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Virginia Tech is 11th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Miami's secondary has held opposing quarterbacks to the third lowest QBR on average of any team in the country. Virginia Tech is 7th in that same category. The Hokies always have an elite secondary. Miami's offense was great against non-conference opponents, but they have struggled of late. They have multiple injuries and the offensive line is a weakness. Virginia Tech's pass rush is above average and should cause problems. Virginia Tech's offense is 48th in the country in yards per play. The running game has been weak all year, and Miami's secondary is tremendous. I see this as a hard fought battle where both defenses have the upper hand in a tight game. Take the under.
11-04-17	UTSA v. Florida International UNDER 54		7-14	Win	100	125 h 2 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The UTSA defense was very good last year. I expect them to improve as conference play goes along this year. Their coach is a defensive minded coach who will work hard on that side of the ball. FIU is coming off a high scoring game against Marshall last week, but in general their offense has been mediocre or worse. Both of these teams play at a very slow pace. UTSA ranks among the five slowest teams in the country. Take the under.
11-04-17	South Carolina v. Georgia UNDER 49		10-24	Win	100	122 h 22 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Georgia Bulldogs pound the football with their running game. That means a running clock for much of the game. Georgia's defense ranks third in yards per play allowed in the country. This is an excellent Georgia team. South Carolina's defense has been pretty good this year. The Gamecocks offense isn't efficient at all. South Carolina ranks in the bottom 15 in pace of play and Georgia ranks in the bottom ten in the country in pace of play. There shouldn't be many possessions in this game. Look for Georgia to grab the lead and run consistently and use up the clock. Take the under.
11-04-17	North Texas v. Louisiana Tech OVER 67		24-23	Loss	-110	38 h 42 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs offense isn't what it was last year, but they should be able to pile up the points against this North Texas defense. North Texas has allowed 37.9 points per game so far this year, which ranks them among the ten worst in the nation in that category. North Texas is averaging 37.4 points per game this year. This Mean Green offense is much improved this year under the leadership of Seth Littrell and quarterback Mason Fine. Fine is a rising star who should end up being great in this offense. He's already very good. Only two North Texas games this year have stayed under this total. Louisiana Tech's offense is better than they have shown, and I expect a big number from them here. North Texas will likely stay close too. Take the over.
11-04-17	Western Kentucky v. Vanderbilt OVER 53		17-31	Loss	-110	34 h 14 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Vanderbilt Commodores and the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are both very pass heavy teams so far this season. Vanderbilt is throwing it on 56.5% of their plays. Western Kentucky is throwing it on 59.8% of their offensive plays. Passing teams are clearly better for the over when it comes to the drives taking less time with the clock stopped for incomplete passes. Western Kentucky's offense was really disappointing early in the year. They are finally putting it together of late. The Hilltoppers have scored 108 points in their last three games. Mike White and the passing game are finally clicking. Vanderbilt's defense has fallen apart of late. They have allowed 34 points or more in four straight games. That includes a game against Florida where they allowed 38 points to that bad Florida offense. Western Kentucky's run defense is good, but their secondary is a weakness. I see both teams scoring a solid amount here. Take the over.
11-04-17	Kansas State v. Texas Tech OVER 63		42-35	Win	100	34 h 12 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Kansas State Wildcats don't have as good of a defense as they have had in recent seasons. Kansas State's run defense is good, but their secondary is a bit of a problem. Texas Tech is clearly capable of exposing problems in the secondary. Kansas State ranks 72nd in the nation in QBR allowed year to date. Kansas State's rushing attack has been very good this year. The Wildcats are averaging 5.10 yards per carry. Texas Tech's weakness is their run defense. The Red Raiders allowed 5.78 yards per carry two weeks ago against Iowa State and 7.15 yards per carry last week against Oklahoma. The history between these two is for high scoring contests. Dating back to 2008 here is the final total of all the matchups between these two teams: 86, 80, 75, 79, 75, 58, 103, and 82. Only one of the games was under, and it was close to this total. Take the over in this one.
11-03-17	Celtics v. Thunder UNDER 205		101-94	Win	100	21 h 2 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Oklahoma City Thunder and Boston Celtics are playing great defense so far this year. Boston ranks first in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Oklahoma City ranks second in the league in defensive efficiency. What about tempo of late for these two teams? Oklahoma City ranks 25th in the NBA at only 97.55 possessions per game in their last three games. Boston ranks slowest in the NBA at only 94.99 possessions per game in their last three games. That's more than a full possession slower than any other team in the league in their last three games. It's rare you can get two teams playing great defense and playing slowly and catch a total of 205. Here we do, and I think it gives us solid value. There was a reverse line move on the under in this game at CRIS as well, and CRIS is one of the sharpest books there is. Another positive sign for this one. The under is 5-0 in the Thunder's last 5 games vs. the Eastern Conference. The under is 5-0 in the Celtics last 5 Friday games. A 10-0 angle. Take the under.
11-03-17	Raptors v. Jazz UNDER 196		109-100	Loss	-110	20 h 48 m	Show
4 Star TGIF NBA Total DOMINATION The Utah Jazz toyed with the idea of playing faster in the offseason, but they are back at the bottom of the NBA in tempo now that the season is here. Quin Snyder's team has likely determined they need to win low scoring games because they don't really have the offensive threats needed to win shootouts on a consistent basis. The Toronto Raptors worked hard on defense in the offseason. Toronto actually ranked second in the NBA in defensive efficiency before being torched by Denver in their last game. They are now eighth in defensive efficiency. I expect Toronto to play much harder on the defensive end here. Utah is third in the NBA in defensive efficiency now. The Jazz should get the tempo to their liking in this one. Six straight Utah Jazz games have stayed under this total in regulation despite the fact they have played the very fast paced Suns and Lakers in this period. The under is 23-8 in Toronto's last 31 road games. Take the under.
11-01-17	Predators v. Sharks UNDER 5.5		1-4	Win	100	23 h 38 m	Show
4 Star NHL Slapshot Special Two playoff hopefuls clash on the west coast as the Predators and Sharks battle Wednesday night. With these two goalies, this one is going to see limited chances for both teams on the offensive end. Looking at Pekka Rinne first, the Preds netminder has just dominated the Sharks in his career. Over 22 career starts, Rinne owns a 1.87 GAA to go along with a ridiculous .942 save percentage. The numbers are mind boggling almost, as this is not a small sample size to work off of. Rinne owns just a 1,86 GAA on the season as well. Martin Jones has been almost as dominant this season. With just a 2.27 GAA, Jones has gone 4 straight games with allowing 2 goals or less. The Sharks defense as a whole is playing extremely well, which gives the edge to the Under in this spot. Head to head wise, the Under is 9-2-2 in the last 13 meetings in San Jose. These two defenses lean on their goalies, who are two of the top goalies in the NHL for sure. Lean on them here Wednesday which should result in a game where scoring chances are at a premium. Take Under.
11-01-17	Wolves v. Pelicans OVER 223.5		104-98	Loss	-107	6 h 12 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The New Orleans Pelicans rank 21st in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Minnesota Timberwolves rank dead last in defensive efficiency, and it's by a wide margin. Minnesota is allowing 1.133 points per possession on the year. Minnesota ranks 4th in the NBA in offensive efficiency. New Orleans ranks tied for 10th in offensive efficiency. We have a meeting between two teams who prefer to run and both struggle badly on the defensive end. I expect a lot of easy looks in this game. Minnesota ranks in the top five in free throws attempted this year, and New Orleans has committed the third most fouls per game of any team in the league. I see a close high scoring contest. Take the over.
10-31-17	Suns v. Nets UNDER 230.5		122-114	Loss	-103	6 h 45 m	Show
3 Star NBA Play of Day The Brooklyn Nets and Phoenix Suns meet on Tuesday night. Phoenix isn't the same team they were under Earl Watson. Jay Triano has encouraged the team to continue to play relatively fast, but he wants them to be more under control. He's also got the team working much harder on the defensive end. Brooklyn isn't the same offensive powerhouse without Jeremy Lin. D'Angelo Russell isn't 100 percent right now, and Quincy Acy will miss this game. Brooklyn will play quickly, but this total is about as high as you ever see in the NBA, and I think the current Suns team should be lined differently than the Suns team from the start of the season when it comes to totals. One of the best under refs in the NBA is Haywoode Workman, and he's part of the crew for this one. Take the under.
10-30-17	Broncos v. Chiefs UNDER 43		19-29	Loss	-110	87 h 28 m	Show
4 Star NFL Monday Night Money The Kansas City Chiefs host the Denver Broncos in this AFC West clash on Monday night. Kansas City is coming off two straight losses. The Chiefs will be anxious to right the ship and I think that means an improved defensive effort here. Kansas City's pass rush should be able to get pressure in this game, and Trevor Siemian has been really poor under pressure. Denver's defense is second in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Denver's offense has had serious problems this year, but the defense is still elite. Denver and Kansas City are very familiar with each other, and familiarity helps the defenses. Division home favorites of 7 points or more have seen their games go under the total at a rate of 19-4 in the last 23 when the total is 41 or higher. Tony Corrente's crew works this game, and they are the best under crew in the game. The under is 81-60 in their games (57.5%). Expect a hard fought game here. Take the under.
10-29-17	Dodgers v. Astros UNDER 7		12-13	Loss	-115	17 h 14 m	Show
3 Star World Series Game 5 Totals MONEY The Dodgers send Clayton Kershaw to the mound here. Kershaw was great in game one and I expect another terrific effort from him. Kershaw has been the best pitcher in baseball for years now and I like his chances to prove himself in a huge game here. Kershaw has held Houston hitters to a .255 wOBA in his career. Dallas Keuchel is a different pitcher at home. His ERA at home in his career 2.94. Batters are hitting only .227 against him at home. Bill Miller is the home plate umpire here, and he is my single favorite under umpire in the bigs. Miller loves to call strikes, and his strike three calls often get batters upset. He is a pitcher's best friend, and we have two tremendous pitchers who can paint the corners here. The under is 42-29 in Keuchel's home starts in his career. The under is 74-57 in Kershaw's road starts. The under is a whopping 30-8 in Kershaw's 38 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Take the under.
10-29-17	Cowboys v. Redskins UNDER 49.5		33-19	Loss	-110	60 h 48 m	Show
4 Star NFL Top Total of the Week The Dallas Cowboys defense expects to get Sean Lee back for this game. Lee is the most important player on this defense, and I expect him to make a difference right away. Washington is coming off a disappointing loss on Monday Night Football against the Eagles. The Redskins are expected to get Josh Norman back at CB here, and that's a big boost to their defense. This is a divisional rivalry where there are often a bunch of close games. This one has an extra wrinkle in that the weather is expected to be a major problem. The forecast calls for rain and 15-25 mph winds with gusts to 30 mph in this one. How much does wind hurt scoring in these divisional games in the NFL? With wind of 10 mph or higher and a total of 40 or higher: the under is a whopping 115-71 in the last 186 situations. That's 62% unders. With the total here set at a pretty high number and both teams getting back key defenders combined with the weather here- I think the under holds significant value. Take the under.
10-29-17	Bucks v. Hawks UNDER 204.5		117-106	Loss	-105	12 h 54 m	Show
3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION One of my favorite angles in the NBA to play is early games on Sunday going under the total. From the beginning of the season through March: the under is 214-144 (60%) in games played between 12 pm and 4 pm eastern. This game fits the system. I see the Hawks as a team that is likely to struggle to score this year without much help for Schroeder. The Bucks are known for controlling the tempo and playing in the halfcourt. They ranked in the bottom five in the NBA in terms of tempo last season. Ersan Ilyasova is a 11 points per game guy and he's out for the Hawks here. There isn't much reliable scoring on this team to start with. At this level, I see value on the under in this early game. Take the under.
10-29-17	Falcons v. Jets UNDER 44.5		25-20	Loss	-110	33 h 50 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Atlanta Falcons and New York Jets square off in a game that is expected to be played in miserable weather conditions. The forecast for Sunday afternoon calls for a 100% chance of rain with heavy downpours and winds of 20 to 25 mph with gusts of 35 mph. That is some brutal weather. It's a clear plus for the under. What does that mean? It should mean more conservative play calling from both teams. It should mean the defenses are ready for the run, because it will be very difficult to throw the ball efficiently in a game like this. The Falcons offense hasn't been the same with Shanahan at OC. The Jets offense is very inconsistent. With the weather as big factor, I'm on the under here. Take the under.
10-29-17	Raiders v. Bills OVER 46		14-34	Win	100	33 h 50 m	Show
3 Star Play Over Take a look at the injury report for this game and you'll see a bunch of key names from the defensive side on both teams are out. Both secondaries are very thin for this one. Oakland's secondary is missing two of their top three corners. Derek Carr and the Raiders offense were great last game, and I expect Oakland's offense to be much better now that Carr is healthy again. He is a budding star in the league, and he has plenty of weapons around him. Tyrod Taylor is capable of making big plays, and he's up against arguably the worst secondary in the NFL here. Buffalo's tempo has consistently ranked in the top five in the NFL as well. Look for a close game with both offenses having quite a bit of success. Take the over.
10-28-17	UTSA v. UTEP UNDER 48		31-14	Win	100	40 h 32 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The UTEP Miners offense ranks as the second least efficient offense in the nation out of 130 teams. UTEP has scored 16 points or less in 6 of their 7 games this year. They have been held to 14 points or less in 5 of 7 games. UTEP's defense has been much better in the last couple games since Mike Price took over as interim coach. It seems the Miners have changed up their schemes a bit and allowed less big plays. This defense ranked as one of the bottom 10 in efficiency in the first five games. They rank in the top 50 in the last couple games. UTSA's defense was a major strength last year. They have looked worse of late, but a date with UTEP should fix their defensive struggles. Take the under here.
10-28-17	Duke v. Virginia Tech UNDER 49		3-24	Win	100	39 h 1 m	Show
3 Star CFB 100% Angle CRUSHER The Virginia Tech Hokies are running the ball on 58% of their offensive plays so far this year. Adjusted for strength of schedule though, Virginia Tech has the 110th best rushing attack in the country. Duke's defense is 51st in the country in rushing defense adjusted by strength of schedule. Duke's offense ranks as one of the five least efficient offenses in the country in their last four games. The Blue Devils haven't gotten any big plays, and they are up against a Virginia Tech defense that is very good here. The forecast calls for 8 mph wind (nothing too major) but a 70% chance of rain in this one. That should make the game plans a little more conservative. Both defenses excel against the run so that plays into their hands. The under is 6-0 in Duke's last 6 games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 ACC games. The under is 4-0 in VA Tech's last 4 following an ATS cover. A 15-0 angle. Take the under.
10-28-17	Minnesota v. Iowa UNDER 42.5		10-17	Win	100	124 h 37 m	Show
4 Star Play Under While this is a low total, I think there is a good reason for it to be low. In fact, I made this total 38 points. We have two teams who like to play smash mouth football here. They are going to want to run the football consistently and both teams play at a slow pace. What about the defenses? Minnesota ranks 25th in yards per play allowed and Iowa ranks 39th, so both are solid. Neither offense is very good. Iowa is 85th in the nation in yards per play at 5.2 per play. Minnesota is 87th at 5.1 per play. The defenses are clearly better than the offenses here. With a slow tempo and a bunch of running plays, I see this staying under. Take the under.
10-28-17	Old Dominion v. North Texas OVER 61		38-45	Win	100	38 h 6 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The North Texas Mean Green rank 110th in the nation in total defense. The Old Dominion Monarchs rank 103rd in the nation in total defense. North Texas is playing at a very quick pace under Seth Littrell in the air raid offense. Mason Fine is a very good quarterback, and I expect him and this North Texas offense to have a lot of success against an Old Dominion defense that has been ravaged by injuries this year. Old Dominion's offense is much better with Lawry back and healthy at running back. North Texas has allowed a whopping 10 plays of 50 yards or more on the year, so expect some explosive plays from Old Dominion here. Take the over.
10-28-17	TCU v. Iowa State UNDER 53		7-14	Win	100	121 h 17 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Iowa State Cyclones defense is one of the most improved defenses in the country this year. They rank 18th in the nation in yards per play allowed at 4.6 per play. Iowa State was great on defense last weekend in their win at Texas Tech. Iowa State has a big homefield advantage as well, and that should make it tougher on TCU's offense here. The TCU defense has been elite of late. TCU has a lot of veterans on this defense, and Patterson is a good defensive minded coach. TCU has allowed 6 points in their last two games. I think perception of the Big 12 as everyone being high scoring has this number inflated by several points. Take the under. I selected this game early in the week. The line has since moved some. I would still select the under here, but for a 3 star rated play instead of 4. Thank you and good luck.
10-28-17	Georgia v. Florida UNDER 47		42-7	Loss	-110	122 h 59 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Florida Gators take on the Georgia Bulldogs this weekend. Florida's offense has been really bad all season, and it is hard to imagine them turning things around much against a very good defense like Georgia. Georgia is a running team. The Bulldogs are going to run the football consistently here, and that uses up the clock. Florida is going to try to run as much as they can as well, because their quarterback play has been terrible. The last two years this game has been extremely low scoring. I see another low scoring battle here with Georgia holding Florida to a very low number. Take the under. I selected this game early in the week. The line has since moved some. I would still select the under here, but for a 3 star rated play instead of 4. Thank you and good luck.
10-28-17	Michigan State v. Northwestern UNDER 41		31-39	Loss	-115	35 h 16 m	Show
4 Star CFB Big 10 Total Takedown The Northwestern Wildcats defense has been very good against the run this year. Northwestern ranks 19th in the nation in yards per carry allowed. That is despite going against great rushing offenses in Wisconsin and Penn State already this year. Michigan State has run the ball on almost 60% of their offensive plays this year. I think Northwestern can do a solid job slowing down the run game here. Northwestern's offensive line is one of the worst in the Big 10. Michigan State ranks near the top of the country in quarterback hurries. Thorson isn't going to be comfortable in this game. Michigan State is 6th in the country in yards per play allowed. The defenses have the advantage across the board here. Also important to note, the wind is expected to be sustained at about 16 or 17 mph during this game. That is plenty to make it much harder to throw the football. Expect more running and conservative game plans. The under is 36-14-1 in NW's last 51 home games. Take the under.
10-28-17	Appalachian State v. UMass OVER 55		27-30	Win	100	35 h 11 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Appalachian State Mountaineers offense is really playing well right now. Appalachian State has a really good offensive front, and they'll have a big edge in the trenches in this game. UMass has been much better in recent games offensively. UMass has scored 50 and 55 points in their last two games. They won't score that here, but I do think they have enough weapons to give a short-handed Appalachian State defense some trouble. UMass has been playing fast of late, and with them pushing the tempo a total of only 55 isn't very high. Take the over here.
10-28-17	Kansas State v. Kansas UNDER 60.5		30-20	Win	100	120 h 23 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Kansas Jayhawks had 21 yards of offense against TCU last week. Kansas has failed to score a point in their last two games. They'll probably score here, but I don't think they score very many. A total set this high with one team (Kansas State) that plays so slowly, and another team that is so inept on offense, I have to take the under. I do think Kansas State can score quite a few here, but I think this total should be around 55, so I'll take the value at this number. Take the under.
10-28-17	Miami-FL v. North Carolina UNDER 54.5		24-19	Win	100	32 h 52 m	Show
3 Star CFB Early Bird Special The North Carolina Tar Heels defense has actually gotten a little better in the last few weeks. They didn't even allow 400 yards to VA Tech last week, but the Hokies scored 59 points. It was UNC interceptions and special teams blunders that led to the big point total for VA Tech. As North Carolina's defense has improved, their efficiency on offense has fallen badly. The number of injuries this team has on the offensive side of the ball right now is mind boggling. They have no real playmakers, and sustaining drives has been very difficult for them. It should be really hard against a Miami defense that is one of the top 20 in the nation. Miami has some very big games on deck, and I'm not sure they will want to run the score up here. This is a good spot to get out with a win and move on for the Hurricanes. The under is 5-0 in Miami's last 5 road games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 October games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 ACC games. A 13-0 angle. Take the under.
10-27-17	Wizards v. Warriors UNDER 231.5		117-120	Loss	-110	19 h 30 m	Show
3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION The Golden State Warriors have consistently been one of the best teams in the NBA in defensive efficiency the last three years. They have started out this season playing some really bad defense. Draymond Green and Steve Kerr both made extensive comments about this after their very tight win over Toronto a couple days ago. Golden State's defense will improve. This team has too many good defensive players and a defensive-minded coach. They aren't going to continue to be this bad. In fact, I imagine they will finish the year in the top six or eight in defensive efficiency once again. Washington has made a focus on playing better defense this year. The Wizards rank 10th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Neither team ranks in the top five in pace in the NBA so far this year, and a total this high is extremely rare even for teams like Golden State. It isn't an easy bet to make, but at this level I think the under holds value. Take the under.
10-26-17	Jets v. Penguins OVER 6.5		1-2	Loss	-100	16 h 23 m	Show
3 Star NHL Slapshot Total The Winnipeg Jets and Pittsburgh Penguins battle on Thursday night inside PPG PAINTS Arena. This Over is a prime example of how the NHL has really shifted over the past few years. Totals this high were never around a few years ago, but now they have value given the style of play and some of the rule changes that affect late game scoring. Winnipeg and Pittsburgh have been two of the worst defensive teams in the NHL. Winnipeg is conceding 3.71 goals per game while the Penguins sit at an even 4. It's the way both teams play, as they are constantly attacking, which turns into some easy counter attacks for the opposition the other way. With that constant attack, it gives both teams many chances on possessions. Winnipeg is averaging over 3 goals per game, while the Penguins are right there with them. The Jets have hit the Over in all but one game this season, while the Penguins are 7-3 to the Over. Its worth a move here, as both offenses are going to push the issue, especially knowing how poor each other is on the defensive end. Take Over.
10-24-17	Red Wings v. Sabres OVER 5.5		0-1	Loss	-105	18 h 1 m	Show
3 Star NHL Total DOMINATION The Detroit Red Wings and Buffalo Sabres clash Tuesday inside the Keybank Center. Defensively, both of these teams have been horrendous. Detroit has given up 3.22 goals per game this season as their ability to slow opposing teams down has been tough. The Wings have been a struggle when it comes to clearing the zone, giving the opposition plenty of attempts on goal. The Sabres have been even worse. Conceding 3.89 goals per game, Buffalo has struggled defensively for a few reasons, that all help out this Over. The Sabres are much quicker paced team. They like to get up and down the ice and attack the net. However, with that comes a vulnerable back line that is typically in odd man situations. Both teams have been solid Over bets as well. Detroit has gone Over in 6 of 9 games and in 4 of 5 on the road. Buffalo is 2-0 to the Over at home and has hit the Over in 6 of 8. This should be like the others. Both teams will attack and play extremely aggressive. Take Over.
10-22-17	Saints v. Packers UNDER 47.5		26-17	Win	100	58 h 40 m	Show
4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION The Green Bay Packers start Brett Hundley here as Aaron Rodgers is out indefinitely with an injury. That's obviously a massive loss, and I expect the Packers to have a much more conservative game plan ready for this one. New Orleans had an extremely high scoring game filled with defensive and special teams touchdowns last week. That has inflated this total a bit. The weather here should be a factor. The forecast calls for 15 mph winds and a 70% chance of rain during the game. Wind combined with rain is definitely a plus for the under. The New Orleans passing game isn't likely to be quite as effective in those conditions. Green Bay is better defensively at home, and the Saints aren't as good offensively on the road. The weather combines with a new QB for the Packers to create value on the under. Take the under.
10-21-17	Colorado v. Washington State UNDER 53.5		0-28	Win	100	55 h 11 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The weather is the story here. Pullman is experiencing some nasty weather this weekend. The current forecast calls for a 80% chance of rain with a temperature in the mid 40's and winds of 20 mph. That makes it very hard for passing attacks to work. Washington State will have to run more than normal. Colorado's passing defense is their strength, and Washington State isn't a very good running team. Colorado's offense has been a disappointment all year. The Buffaloes are struggling to get explosive plays. Alex Grinch's defense is much improved at Washington State, and I think they bounce back from last week's game with a strong defensive effort. Take the under here.
10-21-17	Michigan v. Penn State UNDER 45		13-42	Loss	-110	51 h 30 m	Show
3 Star Michigan/Penn State MONEY The Michigan Wolverines have held all six of their opponents to season lows in total yards. There is no doubt this Michigan defense is excellent. Penn State's defense is 4th in the nation in yards per play allowed at 4.01. Michigan is second at only 3.68 per play allowed. Penn State ranks in the bottom half of the country in terms of pace of play. Michigan ranks in the bottom 20 in tempo as well. I don't see either team playing quickly here. Michigan is first in the nation in pass defense when adjusted for strength of schedule. I think Michigan can reduce Penn State's big play ability much better than most teams. Michigan's passing attack has been non-existent of late, and Penn State's front seven should be up for the challenge of stuffing the run. There's a good chance this game stays in the 30's. Take the under.
10-21-17	North Texas v. Florida Atlantic OVER 59	Top	31-69	Win	100	124 h 35 m	Show
5 Star CFB TOP Play Total I had this one lined at 70 points, so this is a big play for me. Both teams play at a very quick pace. Both teams have the ability to break a bunch of explosive plays. I don't see either defense being able to contain the opposition. Big bet on the over for me. North Texas' Mason Fine is really coming into his own in this offense. Florida Atlantic hasn't allowed less than 5.48 yards per play in a game against an FBS opponent all year. The North Texas defense has allowed 5.06 yards per play or more in all their games against FBS opponents. Both of these teams play fast and there will be a lot of possessions. Take the over.
10-21-17	Kentucky v. Mississippi State OVER 53.5		7-45	Loss	-115	122 h 22 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Kentucky Wildcats defense has been exposed in SEC play because of a weak run defense. Mississippi State plays at a quick tempo and they can break a lot of big running plays. Look for Nick Fitzgerald to have a big game here. The Kentucky offense has a nice balanced attack, and I believe Mississippi State's defense is a bit overvalued right now. Last year's game sailed over the total and I see no reason to believe this will be any different. Look for big plays from both teams in this one. Take the over.
10-21-17	Buffalo v. Miami-OH UNDER 45.5		14-24	Win	100	45 h 26 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Buffalo is starting their third string quarterback in this one. Miami (Ohio) is without starting quarterback Gus Ragland. Billy Bahl is a big downgrade from Ragland. Vantrease gets the start for Buffalo with Anderson and Jackson expected to miss this game. Expect both teams to be far more cautious with their play calling here. These aren't explosive offenses to begin with, and I expect even less big plays with untested quarterbacks in the game. Look for the defenses to be geared to stop the run, and the run is likely to come often given the quarterback situation. I expect a sloppy low scoring contest. Take the under.
10-21-17	Idaho v. Missouri OVER 62		21-68	Win	100	118 h 1 m	Show
4 Star Play Over Missouri is pushing the pace more again. After not play quite as quick for a couple games, the Tigers have been the fastest paced team on offense in the country in their last two games. Missouri's offense is starting to get more efficient, and this Idaho defense shouldn't be able to slow them down much at all. Idaho has a good quarterback and should be able to complete some big plays against a weak Missouri secondary. Missouri has allowed a minimum of 31 points in every game this year, including a win over Missouri State 72-43 in the season opener. Look for Missouri to run it up with a big number and Idaho to score a solid amount as well. Take the over.
10-21-17	Iowa v. Northwestern UNDER 47		10-17	Win	100	43 h 1 m	Show
4 Star CFB Early Bird Special Iowa is a team that relies heavily on the running game. That plays into the strength of the Northwestern defense. The Wildcats are allowing only 3.44 yards per carry despite facing some good rushing attacks this year. Northwestern's offense has been throwing it a lot more often this year. Justin Jackson is banged up and that is slowing down the offense a lot. The offensive line is a major problem for Northwestern. Look for Iowa to get a lot of pressure on Thorson here. The wild card here is the weather. The forecast calls for 15 to 20 mph winds through this game, which makes both passing attacks have a much harder time. Wind is your best friend as an under bettor. The under is 35-15-1 in Northwestern's last 51 home games. Take the under here.
10-20-17	Wild v. Jets OVER 5.5		3-4	Win	100	20 h 49 m	Show
3 Star NHL 100% Angle CRUSHER The Winnipeg Jets and Minnesota Wild go at it inside Bell MTS Centre on Friday night. These two teams like to really run and gun, which will make for a very entertaining game. Looking at the Jets, they have averaged 3.0 goals themselves, but conceding almost 4 goals per game is nothing new to this team. They've been horrible on the defensive end dating back to last season. It stems from their fast paced offensive attack, which leaves them vulnerable to the counter. Both of which are good features to this over. Minnesota likes to play extremely fast too. The Wild have averaged 3.75 goals per game, but have also conceded the same. The Wild are a perfect 4-0 to the Over and that number should only rise given the style they play. Along with that, the Wild will be well rested heading into this one, as their fresh legs will allow them to run wild. These two teams are a match made in heaven for a lot of goals. Expect tons of fireworks here. The over is 5-0 in the Wild's last 5. The over is 5-0 in the Jets last 5 playing on 2 days of rest. The over is 5-0 in the Jets last 5 when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in the previous game. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two in Winnipeg. A 20-0 angle. Take the over.
10-20-17	Jazz v. Wolves OVER 198.5		97-100	Loss	-105	17 h 53 m	Show
3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION The Minnesota Timberwolves want to push the tempo more this year. Thibodeau's team has all kinds of offensive weapons. With Towns, Butler, and Wiggins this team has three very high level scorers. Teague is a solid point guard and he has good speed. The Timberwolves preseason games showed how quick they want to play. The team believes Teague is a great guy to have to help them speed up the game. The Utah Jazz aren't going to go really fast this year, but Quin Snyder and his team have been adamant that they are looking to play faster than they did a year ago. While the Jazz have a good defense, the Timberwolves do not. In today's era of the NBA, this is a pretty low total. Minnesota's offensive efficiency and the pace point to an over in this one. Take the over.
10-18-17	Nuggets v. Jazz OVER 206		96-106	Loss	-110	19 h 41 m	Show
3 Star NBA Opening Night Totals TKO The Denver Nuggets offense absolutely took off after Jokic was given a bigger role in the offense in the middle of the season last year. After the All-Star break, Denver ranked first in the NBA in points per possession. The Nuggets are going to be a top five offense in the NBA again this year. They also want to push the tempo. Utah is still going to be a solid defensive team, but the big change for Utah this year should be their tempo. Quin Snyder always has said he wants to speed things up. The Jazz haven't done it. Beat writers in the area said in practices the Jazz are playing significantly faster. While I don't like to read much into the preseason, the Jazz played quicker and averaged 112.3 points per game. The posted total last time these two played was higher than this. Denver's totals were consistently 220 late last year. I know it can't be that high here with a very good Utah defense, but I see this as a chance to take advantage of some value on the over thanks to Utah's change of pace. Take the over.
10-17-17	Maple Leafs v. Capitals OVER 6		2-0	Loss	-120	18 h 28 m	Show
3 Star NHL Total DOMINATION The Washington Capitals and Toronto Maple Leafs battle on Tuesday inside Capital One Arena. This one has the makings of a game with a lot of fireworks. Both offenses have been on fire to start the season. The Maple Leafs have averaged 5.20 goals per game thus far and they get a Capitals defense that is playing with very little confidence. The Caps have conceded 22 goals thus far, which really should open things up for the Leafs here. Expect them to crash the net and put a lot of pressure on. Washington's offense has been up to the challenge themselves. The Capitals have seen Alexander Ovechkin go off early on and the Caps have been feeding off his energy. Washington has put in 3.67 goals per game thus far and they have been one of the most explosive teams. With how many weapons this team has, they have the ability to go off and score in bunches. Take the over here.
10-15-17	49ers v. Redskins OVER 45.5		24-26	Win	100	14 h 41 m	Show
4 Star NFL 100% Angle SMASHER The Washington Redskins' offense is very balanced this year. Kirk Cousins has upped his play this season, and I think it's largely because of an improved supporting cast. The 49ers defense has typically played well at home but very poorly on the road. San Francisco is weak in the secondary, and the Redskins have plenty of weapons to take advantage of that weakness. I'm not convinced the Washington defense is all that good, and San Francisco's offense has shown glimpses of their potential. Look for them to air it out here and complete some big plays. The over is 7-0 in the Redskins' last 7 following an ATS loss. The over is 4-0 in the 49ers last 4 during Week 6 of the season. An 11-0 angle. Take the over.
10-14-17	Nevada v. Colorado State OVER 64		42-44	Win	100	79 h 20 m	Show
4 Star Play Over Colorado State's offense is one of the best in the country when it comes to efficiency. Inside Mountain West play, there aren't going to be many defenses that can slow them down. They are averaging 6.9 yards per play in their last three games, which is good for 10th best in the nation. Nevada's defense ranks 100th in the nation in yards per play allowed at 6.2. Colorado State's defense isn't much better at 5.8 per play allowed. Nevada ranks in the top ten in the country in fastest tempo on offense this year. Colorado State's pace rank is almost exactly the average in the nation. I expect Colorado State to get a lead here with big plays and Nevada to be forced to play extremely quick to try to get back in the game. Look for plenty of explosive plays and uptempo offense. Take the over.
10-14-17	New Mexico v. Fresno State OVER 52.5		0-38	Loss	-110	22 h 28 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The New Mexico Lobos run a unique option offense. New Mexico always ranks near the top of college football in yards per carry. They had extra time to prepare for this game, and in their last contest they average 8.85 yards per carry. Expect some more explosive runs against a Fresno State defense that isn't accustomed to defending the option. Fresno State is looking to play faster under their new coaching staff. This offense is clearly improved and the weakness of the New Mexico defense is their secondary. Look for Fresno State to take advantage of that. This total is set relatively low, and I see value on the over. Take the over.
10-14-17	Ohio State v. Nebraska UNDER 58.5		56-14	Loss	-110	41 h 37 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Ohio State Buckeyes defense has been dominant of late. This defensive line is one of the best in the country, and they are causing some major problems for opponents. I expect them to be in the Nebraska backfield frequently here. J.T. Barrett has been inconsistent this year, and this is a spot where he has some factors working against him. Nebraska's defense should be fired up to make a better showing after losing 62-3 to Ohio State last year in Columbus. Another major factor here is the weather. The wind is expected to be blowing at a sustained 20 mph during this game. That's plenty to make it very hard to throw accurate passes. Tanner Lee isn't very good, and the weather will make Nebraska even more one dimensional. Ohio State's secondary should give him plenty of trouble too. I had this one projected at 55 before accounting for the weather, and the sustained winds of 20 mph are certainly worth at least 3 points on the total making this one quite a bit off my projection now. The under is 7-2 in Nebraska's last 9 home games. Take the under.
10-14-17	New Mexico State v. Georgia Southern OVER 58.5		35-27	Win	100	39 h 2 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The New Mexico State Aggies rank 11th in the country in pace of play. New Mexico State is playing extremely fast and creating lots of scoring opportunities with their talented offense. Tyler Rogers is coming off an awful game at quarterback for them, but overall he's been solid and I expect him to bounce back against a Georgia Southern pass defense that is very weak. The New Mexico State running game is great with two strong runners as well. I think New Mexico State puts up quite a few points here. Georgia Southern's triple option attack has gotten better in recent weeks. New Mexico State can be run on. They allowed 9.21 yards per carry last week against Appalachian State. On the year, they rank among the 30 worst run defenses in the country. The over is 23-7-1 in the Aggies last 31 road games. The over is 4-0 in GA Southern's last 4 vs a team with a losing record.
10-14-17	Ohio v. Bowling Green OVER 56.5		48-30	Win	100	121 h 37 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Bowling Green Falcons offense put up more than 500 yards against Miami (Ohio) last week. Bowling Green ranks 4th in the nation in tempo on offense (amount of time between snaps). Ohio ranks 58th out of 130 in time between snaps, so they are relatively quick as well. The Bobcats defense has been much worse in recent weeks, and if you look at their injury report that makes a lot of sense. There are a ton of key players injured here. Bowling Green's defense ranks 124th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Ohio should have success both through the air and on the ground. I made this total 64. Take the over.
10-14-17	Northern Illinois v. Buffalo OVER 49		14-13	Loss	-110	25 h 15 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Buffalo Bulls defense isn't all that good to start with. They have a few injuries that make them short-handed, and they are coming off a seven overtime game. I expect Northern Illinois' uptempo offense to get plenty of scoring chances here. Northern Illinois ranks in the top ten in the country in terms of tempo. Buffalo's Drew Anderson has really impressed me at quarterback. He's played better than their original starter Tyree Jackson. Anderson is more of an accurate passer who can spread the ball around. Both of these teams play at a faster than average tempo, and there are no weather concerns at all for this game. This total is too low by several points. Take the over.
10-14-17	Baylor v. Oklahoma State UNDER 68.5		16-59	Loss	-110	16 h 58 m	Show
4 Star CFB Total PERFECTION Baylor and Oklahoma State are not two teams that I would typically be looking to play an under with, but the weather and this high number make this a must play for me. Wind is by far the toughest weather condition for quarterbacks to deal with. Both of these teams throw the ball a lot and I expect the wind to make their pass efficiency numbers lower than normal. The forecast here calls for sustained winds of 21 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph. The Oklahoma State defense is clearly better than last year and I expect Baylor's defense to improve with a defensive minded coach at the helm. While this game will likely be fairly high scoring, this kind of extreme number is a must play on the under in these conditions. The under is 6-0 in Baylor's last 6 versus a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in Baylor's last 5 after allowing 170 or fewer passing yards last game. The under is 5-0 in Oklahoma State's last 5 after gaining 200 yards or more on the ground in their last game. A 16-0 angle. Take the under.
10-13-17	Capitals v. Devils OVER 5.5		5-2	Win	100	3 h 26 m	Show
3 Star NHL Total DOMINATION The Washington Capitals and New Jersey Devils clash on Friday night at the Prudential Center. Both of these teams have found a lot of success when it comes to scoring here through the early portion of the season. Looking at New Jersey, they have been quite the surprise so far. What used to be a team that played somewhat of a possession game and worked the puck around, has been peppering the net this season. The Devils have averaged 5.33 goals per game thus far and they come in off another 6 goal performance. We all know what Washington is capable of too. The Capitals have one of the best attacks in the NHL and it starts with Alexander Ovechkin. The star F has tallied 8 goals already through 4 games and this attack just continues to put the pressure on defenses attack after attack. This one should see a lot of back and forth action. Don't even be shocked if the Capitals find the back of the net themselves 4 or 5 times to push this total close. Take the Over.
10-11-17	Yankees v. Indians UNDER 7.5		5-2	Win	100	16 h 37 m	Show
3 Star Yankees/Indians Game 5 CASH The Cleveland Indians start Corey Kluber in this one. Kluber is coming off a bad start, but before that start he was on a run that no pitcher could match all season. Kluber has been extremely dominant this year. I'm not going to let one start ruin my opinion of him. Kluber had a ridiculous 15.6% swinging strike rate during the season. He allowed less than 1 home run per nine innings. Kluber has a great history against the Yankees overall even with this last start being a bad one. The Yankees lineup has combined to hit .184 against him. C.C. Sabathia has been pretty good this year. I'm also encouraged by the fact that Sonny Gray could pitch in long relief here, and all of the Yankees bullpen arms are well rested. Both teams will use their bullpens at the first signs of trouble here, and these are the two best bullpens in the American League. That's a large reason for this bet. The wind will be blowing in from right field here and the temperature will be cool. The conditions favor the under as well. Take the under.
10-09-17	Dodgers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9		3-1	Win	100	26 h 44 m	Show
3 Star MLB Monday Late Night MONEY The Arizona Diamondbacks and the Los Angeles Dodgers meet at Chase Field on Monday night. Arizona has to win this one to stay alive. They'll start their ace Zack Greinke here. Greinke was amazing at home all year. He had a 2.87 ERA and allowed a batting average of only .207 at home this season. He didn't pitch well in his last couple starts, but he has decent numbers against the Dodgers, and I see him pitching well with his back against the wall in this spot. Yu Darvish has been great down the stretch this year, and in 63 plate appearances the DBacks hitters have a miserable .190 average against him. That's a small sample size, but Darvish has great stuff and is well rested. Chase Field's roof status isn't yet available. If it is open here, the wind will be blowing in 15 mph. Expect both teams to use their best relievers in this spot, which certainly helps. Take the under.
10-08-17	Chiefs v. Texans UNDER 45.5		42-34	Loss	-115	47 h 22 m	Show
3 Star NFL Sunday Night Football CASH The Kansas City Chiefs offense has gone back to being much more conservative in recent weeks. Kansas City is throwing a bunch of short passes and not stretching the field. Kansas City also ranks dead last in the NFL in terms of pace of play. The Chiefs use up a bunch of time in between plays, which is obviously helpful to the under. The Houston Texans scored a bunch of points on a bad Titans defense last week, but I don't expect a repeat here. I like Watson, but I don't think it will just come easily for the rookie quarterback. Both defensive lines should be able to apply a lot of pressure on the quarterback here. That means less time to sit in the pocket and let long passing plays develop. Both teams play slower than the league average and both teams run the ball more than the league average. Take the under.
10-08-17	Seahawks v. Rams OVER 47.5		16-10	Loss	-105	15 h 50 m	Show
3 Star NFL Total DOMINATION The Seattle Seahawks and LA Rams meet on Sunday afternoon. These two both rank in the top five in the NFL in terms of pace of play in neutral situations. Both teams should keep the pace moving in this one. The Rams are second in the NFL in yards per play. The Seahawks are 13th in the NFL in yards per play. The Rams are 27th in the NFL in yards per play allowed at 5.7. The Seahawks are 13th at 5.2. Seattle's defense has been much better at home than on the road. This is a series that has been filled with a bunch of low scoring close games. That's why I see value on the over here. Why? The Rams are a completely different team this year. The offense is now dynamic and playing fast. Under Jeff Fisher in previous years, the Rams offense played slowly and was awful almost all the time. I believe the oddsmakers are underrating how big of a change there has been in LA. Also, the Seattle defense is clearly not as good as they were a couple years ago. Russell Wilson has more weapons in the passing game than he did last year. Take the over.
10-08-17	Astros v. Red Sox OVER 9.5		3-10	Win	100	12 h 59 m	Show
3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION The Houston Astros had the top offense in baseball all year long. This Houston offense is the real deal. Altuve, Springer, Correa, Bregman, and the rest of the bunch are so good. I certainly don't trust Doug Fister to get this Astros lineup out on a consistent basis. Fister has below average stuff and I think there's a good chance he won't get very deep into this one. The Boston Red Sox offense has been better at home. Boston faces Brad Peacock here. He was good this year, but he is inconsistent. He is relatively wild, and Boston should make him work. A big key here is the weather. Winds of 15 mph blowing out to center field and left field are expected here. That brings this system into play: on a total of 9.5 or lower with wind blowing out at 5 mph or greater and a temperature of 50 degrees or warmer the over is 81-50 (62% overs) in the last ten years in the postseason. I think both teams get a lot of scoring chances here. Take the over.
10-07-17	Wisconsin v. Nebraska UNDER 49		38-17	Loss	-110	125 h 38 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Nebraska Cornhuskers defense has been very good of late. Nebraska has allowed less than 4 yards per play to three straight opponents. Granted the opponents weren't all that good, but the Cornhuskers have clearly improved on defense. On offense, I don't trust Nebraska at all. Tanner Lee isn't the answer at quarterback, and the backfield has suffered a lot of injuries. Wisconsin is going to do what they do all the time. The Badgers are going to run the football consistently and they are going to move very slowly. They rank in the bottom ten in terms of tempo every single year. Wisconsin's defense is one of the best in the country. They are allowing only 4.00 yards per play on the season. The Badgers aren't likely to give up very much against a questionable Nebraska offense. Take the under.
10-07-17	Kansas State v. Texas UNDER 49.5		34-40	Loss	-116	40 h 16 m	Show
3 Star CFB Total PERFECTION The Texas Longhorns defense has gotten much better in the last few weeks. Texas has a bunch of talented guys on their defense, and now it appears they are becoming a unit. Texas allowed only 7 points at Iowa State last week. They took USC to overtime in a low scoring game a couple games ago. This isn't the same defense we saw in week one. Kansas State ranks 94th in offensive pace of play. The Wildcats aren't going to play fast. Texas ranks 68th in offensive pace of play. They aren't playing as fast as many expected either. Bill Snyder's team only throws the ball 35.5% of the time. They will run the ball and use the clock as much as they can. Snyder is a great coach, and he knows they are at a talent disadvantage here. They'll look to shorten the game and use up a bunch of time. Kansas State ranks 18th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Texas has been a top 25 defense in that category in their last three games. The under is 4-0 in the Wildcats last 4 after allowing less than 100 yards rushing last game. The under is 4-0 in the Longhorns last 4 after allowing less than 100 rushing yards last game. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A 12-0 angle. Take the under.
10-07-17	Air Force v. Navy UNDER 53	Top	45-48	Loss	-110	121 h 33 m	Show
5 Star TOP Total of the Week Air Force and Navy run the same triple option attack. That gives the defense a massive advantage in this matchup. They practice against it every day. Usually when these teams play against a normal opponent, the defenses aren't well prepared to stop the option. In this game, both teams know their assignments really well. Both teams run almost every single play, and the clock will be ticking away quickly here. Take the under big.
10-07-17	Minnesota v. Purdue UNDER 46.5		17-31	Loss	-110	37 h 4 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Minnesota Golden Gophers only throw the ball on 31% of their plays on offense. Minnesota is going to ground and pound here, and the Golden Gophers don't move quickly either. How slow are they? Minnesota is taking the second most amount of time between snaps (only Army is moving slower). The Golden Gophers will slow this game down. Purdue has been much improved this year, and they had extra time to prepare for this game. I think that helps them most on the defensive end here. On the other side, P.J. Fleck was extremely disappointed in his team's defensive effort last week against Maryland. They should be better here. A major factor in this play is the weather. The weather is calling for a 50% chance of showers with sustained winds of 20 to 25 mph and gusts of 30 mph in this game. That's some very unfavorable conditions for scoring. Take the under.
10-07-17	Kent State v. Northern Illinois UNDER 49		3-24	Win	100	37 h 36 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The weather in DeKalb will be a big problem here. Northern Illinois has been throwing the football more often than normal this year, but they'll have to go back toward the ground game here. Kent State has wanted to throw more with Bollas at quarterback, but they'll be back to running a bunch with these conditions. How bad will the weather be? The forecast calls for sustained winds of 22 mph throughout the game with gusts up to 30 mph. That's enough to completely change game plans. Nothing helps an under more than heavy winds. Kent State is 127th in the nation in total offense. The Golden Flashes haven't scored more than 13 points in a game this year against an FBS opponent. They have scored 3, 3, and 0 in three of the contests. They'll face a Northern Illinois defense that ranks fifth in the nation in yards per play allowed so far this year. Can Kent top the 10 point mark here? I wouldn't count on it. The Kent State defense isn't as bad as it has looked. Kent State was torched by Clemson and Louisville. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two at Northern Illinois. Take the under.
10-07-17	Pittsburgh v. Syracuse OVER 61		24-27	Loss	-110	118 h 36 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Pitt Panthers pass defense has been atrocious the last two years. Pittsburgh allowed Oklahoma State to score 49 points and throw more than 400 yards in the first half alone earlier this year. I'm not suggesting Syracuse's offense is as good as Oklahoma State's, but the Orange will play very fast and throw the ball around a bunch. Last year, the final score when these two met was 76-61. Pitt has 644 yards of offense and Syracuse had 668 yards of offense. Because Pittsburgh has played some teams that slow the game down of late (Rice, Georgia Tech) that has lowered this number. Max Browne threw the ball well last week, and this Syracuse defense is really bad. With a bunch of possessions for both teams, I'm taking the over in this one. Take the over.
10-07-17	Penn State v. Northwestern UNDER 53		31-7	Win	100	56 h 39 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Penn State Nittany Lions haven't allowed more than 352 yards in a game so far this year. This Penn State defensive front is aggressive, and they get into the backfield often. They have 45 tackles for a loss so far this year, which is good for third in the country. Northwestern's offensive front allowed 8 sacks against Wisconsin last week, and the Wildcats have a bad combination of an offensive line that is very weak and a quarterback that holds the ball too long. That should be a problem again here. Northwestern's defense has been solid this year, and the Wildcats have typically played Penn State tough, especially in Evanston. The weather is a major reason for me wanting the under in this game. The forecast calls for 20 mph sustained winds with gusts of 30 mph. Those kinds of winds are definitely a big positive for the under. There is a chance of showers throughout this game as well. Take the under.
10-05-17	Yankees v. Indians UNDER 8.5		0-4	Win	100	17 h 57 m	Show
3 Star MLB Playoff Totals SMASHER The Cleveland Indians host the New York Yankees in what should be a really exciting series. The temperature will be fairly moderate in this one and the wind will be blowing in at about 5 mph from left field. Vic Carapazza is scheduled to be the home plate umpire. He rates as one of the top five under umpires in the majors in my umpire ratings. He will both help pitchers in this one. Trevor Bauer really pitched well this year. He has a 3.88 FIP and a 3.60 xFIP. Bauer has only allowed 2 homers against this Yankees lineup in 160 plate appearances. He has allowed a solid .305 wOBA. Sonny Gray has great numbers against the Indians lineup. In 196 plate appearances, the Indians have a very low .273 wOBA against him. Gray has great stuff and I think he'll pitch well here. These are the two best bullpens in the American League. That's very important in the playoffs. Both managers will be quicker to use their top relievers more often and stretch them out. Take the under.
10-01-17	Orioles v. Rays UNDER 8.5		0-6	Win	100	12 h 13 m	Show
4 Star MLB 100% Super System Blake Snell has allowed 2 runs or less in 5 of his last 7 games. Kevin Gausman is coming off a bad start, but he has been very good overall in the last couple months. I expect both teams to have some key bats out of the lineup or pulled during the game here. The final day of the season is a great under day in MLB by the numbers. It makes sense because players and umpires are ready to head home. Quicker innings with more first pitch swings and called strikes are the norm. On the final day of the regular season (Game 162)- With a total of 8 or higher and two teams with a winning percentage of 50% or lower squaring off, the under is a whopping 21-0 in the last 21 contests. This one fits that system and I'll take the under here. Take the under.
10-01-17	Pirates v. Nationals UNDER 8.5		11-8	Loss	-115	12 h 18 m	Show
3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER Brault is a young prospect for the Pirates who has pitched well in a small sample size. He's a guy with a high upside, and the Pirates are really high on him. Gio Gonzalez has been very good this year. Gonzalez has given up a lot of soft contact, and he's been good at getting out of jams with ground balls or strikeouts. The final game of the regular season has been a big under day in the past. How big? Since 2008, the under is 51-25 (67.1%) when the posted total is 8 runs or higher. The under is 7-0 in the Pirates last 7 Sunday games. The under is 6-0-2 in the Pirates last 8 vs. the NL East. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0-1 in Gonzalez's last 6 starts on 5 days of rest. The under is 5-0-2 in their last 7 vs. the NL Central. The under is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two in Washington. A 31-0 angle. Take the under.
10-01-17	Mets v. Phillies UNDER 9		0-11	Loss	-115	12 h 18 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The final day of the regular season has been a great day to play unders in the past several years. It makes sense to me. Players are ready to go home after a long season. That is especially true for bad teams. These are two really bad teams with zero to play for in this one. On the final day of the regular season (Game 162)- With a total of 8 or higher and two teams with a winning percentage of 50% or lower squaring off, the under is a whopping 21-0 in the last 21 contests. This one fits that system and I'll take the under here.
10-01-17	Padres v. Giants UNDER 8		4-5	Loss	-110	12 h 9 m	Show
4 Star MLB 100% System Play SMASHER Luis Perdomo has a 3.55 ERA against the Giants in his career. Johnny Cueto has held the Padres lineup to a miserable .184 batting average. Cueto is at his best in day games, and he faces a very weak lineup in this one. On the final day of the regular season (Game 162)- With a total of 8 or higher and two teams with a winning percentage of 50% or lower squaring off, the under is a whopping 21-0 in the last 21 contests. This one fits that system and I'll take the under here. Take the under.
10-01-17	A's v. Rangers UNDER 10		5-2	Win	100	12 h 33 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Oakland A's have a key bat missing in Olson (injury) and Adrian Beltre is expected to be out for the Rangers. Mengden has pitched better late in the season. Cole Hamels is generally at his best in the last month of the year. The final day of the season is a great under day in MLB by the numbers. It makes sense because players and umpires are ready to head home. Quicker innings with more first pitch swings and called strikes are the norm. On the final day of the regular season (Game 162)- With a total of 8 or higher and two teams with a winning percentage of 50% or lower squaring off, the under is a whopping 21-0 in the last 21 contests. This one fits that system and I'll take the under here. Take the under.
10-01-17	Rams v. Cowboys OVER 48		35-30	Win	100	56 h 38 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The LA Rams are fourth in the NFL in tempo. I really like the way this new offense is working, and they are able to take advantage of Jared Goff's strengths in this new system. It's clear that Jeff Fisher and the previous coaching staff were holding Goff back. The Rams have some good weapons on offense in Watkins, Kupp, and Todd Gurley in the backfield. The Rams are second in the NFL in yards per play on the year at 6.6 (behind only Kansas City). Dallas is middle of the pack in the offensive stats so far this year, but they have faced three top ten defenses so far this year. The Rams are still transitioning over to a new system, and it is clear that they aren't quite ready for this yet. Dallas plays at an average tempo, while the Rams rank fourth in the NFL in pace. This will be the best offense the Cowboys have played so far this year. I see both teams scoring quite a few here. Take the over.
10-01-17	Steelers v. Ravens UNDER 42.5		26-9	Win	100	33 h 13 m	Show
3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER What's been the best conference to under bettors in recent history? Easily the AFC North. It makes a lot of sense to me. When you have teams like the Steelers and Ravens leading the way year after year, you'll have a bunch of hard hitting defensive contests. Since the 2004-2005 season, games with a total of 41 or higher in the AFC North have gone 55-27 to the under. That's 67.1% unders. The Steelers haven't been the same offense on the road the last few years. The Steelers are also dead last in the NFL in rushing yards so far this year. Le'Veon Bell showing up late seems to have hurt the running game. The Ravens offense is a mess in the passing game. Joe Flacco isn't healthy and he doesn't have many weapons on the outside either. The Ravens are tied for last in the NFL in yards per play. The Steelers are only 20th in yards per play as well. The under is 7-0 in the Steelers last 7 road games against an AFC North foe. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 when the underdog in the game is off a neutral site loss. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 games in the NFL where a favorite of 3 or more from their last game lost by 35 points or more (Ravens). A 16-0 angle. Take the under.
10-01-17	Colorado State v. Hawaii OVER 63		51-21	Win	100	48 h 32 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors pass defense is extremely weak. Colorado State has big play makers on the offense at multiple spots, including the best receiver in the Mountain West. The Rams are going to get a lot of big plays in this game. Colorado State finished last season by scoring 46, 49, and 63 points in their last three Mountain West games. They probably won't score that much here, but I think they'll be in the end zone quite a few times. Hawaii's offense is improved this year under Dru Brown at the quarterback spot. Last week they struggled, but don't overreact to that, the game last week was played in bad weather at Wyoming (high wind). Colorado State's defense isn't very good. In fact, they are allowing 6.2 yards per play this year, which ranks among the 30 worst defenses in the country. Hawaii is allowing 6.3 yards per play. The over is 16-6 in Hawaii's last 22 games. The over is 4-1 in Colorado State's last 5 road games. Take the over.
09-30-17	San Jose State v. UNLV OVER 64.5		13-41	Loss	-110	45 h 40 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The UNLV Rebels have a good offensive line. It is one of the best in the conference. UNLV has been running the ball and breaking some big plays in the running game. The Rebels have a couple receivers who are capable of getting open deep, and as a whole their offense is clearly improved from a year ago. Defensively, UNLV is way down from a year ago, and I expect a lot of teams to put up big numbers on UNLV this year. The San Jose State Spartans are coached by a previous Dino Babers assistant. What does that mean? It means a very fast tempo and very little defense being played. Utah State rolled up 61 points on San Jose State last week. Utah State isn't very good on offense. This is a Spartans team that is going to give up points by the bunches all year long. The over is 13-3 in UNLV's last 16 home games. I think this has a solid chance of getting to 70 points. Take the over.
09-30-17	Mississippi State v. Auburn UNDER 51.5		10-49	Loss	-110	41 h 34 m	Show
4 Star CFB 100% Angle CRUSHER The Auburn Tigers have a top ten defense this year. Auburn is tied for fourth in the country at 3.63 yards per play allowed. Mississippi State's defense ranks 14th in the country in yards per play allowed. The Bulldogs have been significantly better at wrapping up on defense this year. This is a matchup of two good defenses, and neither team is playing very fast. The Bulldogs are slightly slower than the average team in the country, and Auburn actually ranks among the 40 slowest teams in the country here. Nick Fitzgerald has to do too much for Mississippi State on offense. He's a very good player, but the best defenses will find ways to slow him down and force someone else to beat them. Auburn's passing game hasn't gotten going this year, and they have been very one-dimensional. Both teams run the ball more than 60% of the time. A moving clock is great for an under. The under is 5-0 in Auburn's last 5 games after gaining 450 yards or more in their last game. The under is 4-0 in the Tigers last 4 home games. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. A 14-0 angle. Take the under.
09-30-17	South Florida v. East Carolina OVER 72.5		61-31	Win	100	117 h 8 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The East Carolina Pirates play extremely fast and they play no defense. They are dead last against the pass in the country and 123rd in the country in run defense. South Florida ranks third in the nation in tempo. The Bulls will be glad to push the tempo and score a ton of points in this one. Flowers is a playmaker and he and his offense have looked better the last couple games. East Carolina's defense should make them look even better. South Florida has had some trouble defending the passing game this year. East Carolina has a decent passing game and with the number of possessions there will be in this one, I see them scoring a decent amount of points as well. Take the over.
09-30-17	Northwestern v. Wisconsin UNDER 53		24-33	Loss	-110	117 h 6 m	Show
4 Star Play Under Northwestern and Wisconsin have a history of tight low scoring games. I see no reason to expect anything different here. In the last four meetings, the highest final total was 41 points. The last two games finished 13-7 and 21-7. This one likely won't be that low, but this total is too high. Wisconsin and Northwestern are both running teams first and that means a lot of ticking clock throughout in this one. Both teams will be geared to stop the run, and I think we'll have a lot of long slow drives in this one. Expect teams to have to settle for field goals and that's a big plus in this type of slow plod it out game. Take the under.
09-29-17	Nebraska v. Illinois UNDER 49.5		28-6	Win	100	88 h 36 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Illinois Fighting Illini host the Nebraska Cornhuskers on Friday night. Both of these offenses have had serious trouble of late. Nebraska had only 306 yards against a very weak Rutgers defense. Nebraska put up only 17 points the previous week against Northern Illinois from the MAC. Illinois hasn't gained more than 354 in a game so far this year. The Fighting Illini were held to just 14 first downs and 216 yards in their season opener against Ball State. The Fighting Illini beat Western Kentucky, but they still only had 300 yards. They racked up some yardage late against USF in a blowout loss. Both of these teams rank among the 30 slowest paced teams in the country. Nebraska and Illinois are both improved on defense. Nebraska's defense has been great the last two weeks, and Illinois has been very good on defense in their home games this year. Neither team has a good option at all at quarterback either. This game likely won't be pretty, and I think it stays low scoring. Take the under.
09-29-17	Orioles v. Rays UNDER 9		0-7	Win	100	2 h 34 m	Show
3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION I had to wait for the lineups and the umpire here, but when all that information came out, it confirmed my initial lean. Tampa Bay is sitting out Corey Dickerson, Kevin Kiermaier, and Lucas Duda here. The Orioles are without both Adam Jones and Mark Trumbo. There are some very questionable hitters in both of these lineups. The home plate umpire here is Vic Carrapazza. He is one of the best under umpires in the league. He'll help both of these guys who typically struggle with walks. Unders do very well in the last weekend of the MLB regular season. Teams under .500 against each other are 60% to the under in the last ten years when the total is 9 or higher. Take the under.
09-28-17	Bears v. Packers UNDER 45.5		14-35	Loss	-104	41 h 24 m	Show
3 Star NFL Thursday Night THUNDER The Green Bay Packers offense is riddled with injuries right now. The fact that they have to play on Thursday night can't have made the coaching staff very happy when they are so badly banged up. They needed the full time to recover. While the injury to Randall Cobb (questionable) gets more attention, the Packers offensive line problems are the biggest issue here. Aaron Rodgers has been sacked 13 times already this year, and the team has multiple backups injured on the offensive front as well. No one unit in the NFL is more banged up than this Packers offensive line. Mike Glennon is a mess at quarterback for the Bears. He never throws the ball downfield, which greatly limits the Bears upside on offense, and it hurts Jordan Howard's ability to run the ball as well since he can't stretch the defense with his arm. Green Bay has slowed their pace down a bunch this year (likely due to injuries). They rank 22nd in the league in tempo. Chicago ranks 31st in the league in pace. The slow pace here is a key and the defensive lines having the advantage is as well. Take the under.
09-27-17	Braves v. Mets UNDER 9		1-7	Win	100	17 h 2 m	Show
3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION The Atlanta Braves take on the New York Mets here. Sean Newcomb takes the mound for the Braves. Newcomb is a guy with a fairly high upside, and the Mets have struggled of late against lefties. It's no surprise, since the Mets are without almost all of their best hitters from the start of the year. This game fits a late season totals (under) trend. Both teams are out of the playoff contention and we'll see a lot of new faces in the lineup here. Take the under.
09-26-17	Giants v. Diamondbacks OVER 9		4-11	Win	105	21 h 37 m	Show
3 Star Play Over Chase Field is a great place for hitters with the roof open. In the past ten years, the over is 56% at Chase Field when the roof is open and the total is 9.5 or lower. That number is above 60% in the past two years alone. Matt Moore and Robbie Ray are two lefties who give up a bunch of hard contact. Moore has a 6.51 ERA on the road this year, and he's facing a DBacks team that should have all its regulars back for Tuesday's contest. This team has some tremendous power hitters against lefties. Moore has allowed 26 homers this year. Robbie Ray is certainly a good pitcher, but his home/road splits are very interesting. Ray has a 4.37 ERA at home this year vs. a road ERA of 1.79. Last year, he had a 5.36 ERA at home. He struggles at Chase Field more often than not. At a good price on a key number, I'll take the over here.
09-26-17	Orioles v. Pirates UNDER 8.5		1-10	Loss	-115	19 h 32 m	Show
4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER The Baltimore Orioles are going to miss the playoffs this year. The Pittsburgh Pirates are out of the playoffs as well. I ran some extensive queries on the last week of the regular season in baseball and found that two teams who are out of the playoff race usually equates to value on the under in the last few games of the season. From game 156 of the season (162 game season), the under is hitting 61.2% in the last ten years when both teams have won 50% of their games or less and the total is at least 7 runs. This one fits that angle. Williams has pitched great at home all season. He is good at keeping the ball in the yard with his sinker, and the Orioles rely on homers quite a bit. The Pirates offense is a mess right now, and Kevin Gausman has been very good late in the season. The under is 4-0 in the Orioles last 4 interleague road games. The under is 8-0 in Williams last 8 games vs. a team with a losing record. A 12-0 angle. Take the under.
09-24-17	Chiefs v. Chargers OVER 47.5		24-10	Loss	-110	24 h 35 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Kansas City Chiefs are first in the NFL in yards per play at 7.6. That is a full yard better than the second best team in the NFL so far this season. Kansas City is a much better offense than they have been in the past. Alex Smith is able to be more aggressive now because he has the weapons around him. With Tyreek Hill as a big play option on the outside and Kareem Hunt making a big splash in the backfield, the Chiefs have home run threats all around. Travis Kelce is one of the best tight ends in the NFL, and I don't think the Chargers have anyone who can cover him. Los Angeles is without Verrett at cornerback, and this is a game where they will badly miss him. The LA Chargers are still good on offense with Rivers competing at a high level. The offense around him is a lot healthier than it has been at most times in the past few years. The Chargers are 10th in the NFL in yards per play. Expect a lot of big plays from both teams in this one. Perception of the Chiefs still being a defensive team that plays low scoring games has held this number down. The over is 4-0 in KC's last 4 road games. Take the over.
09-24-17	Indians v. Mariners UNDER 7.5		4-2	Win	100	12 h 50 m	Show
3 Star MLB Play of Day The Cleveland Indians send Corey Kluber to the hill on Sunday. It's hard to put into words how amazing he has been since June 1. Kluber has allowed 2 runs or less in 17 of his last 21 starts. Most impressive to me is his strikeout/walk ratio of late. Kluber has allowed only 3 walks in his last six games. During that span, he has 56 strikeouts. Amazing stuff. Mike Leake has been very good for Seattle since coming over in a trade. Leake has a FIP of 2.45 or lower in each of his four starts with Seattle. Leake has allowed only a .219 wOBA against the Indians lineup in a decent sample size. What about Kluber against the Mariners? In a huge sample size, the Mariners has a wOBA of .282 against Kluber. Take the under.
09-24-17	Falcons v. Lions OVER 50.5		30-26	Win	100	20 h 55 m	Show
3 Star Play Over Two good quarterbacks with a lot of weapons around them face defenses without a bunch of key players in this one. Vic Beasley and Courtney Upshaw are expected to miss this one for Atlanta, and those are two key guys. That should give Matt Stafford more time to throw. Stafford has proven at this point that he is a very good quarterback when given time to throw. On the Detroit side, Jarrod Davis is expected to miss this one and that is huge since I consider him one of the most important players on this team. Safety Tavon Wilson is a key guy who would have played a major role in slowing down the Falcons pass attack, but he's expected to miss this one too. Non-divisional overs of 52.5 or lower in domes have cashed at 56% in the NFL between week 2 and week 12 (the percentage gets lower late in the year as games mean more). Both of these are big play offenses, and I expect some blown assignments and lapses by the defenses in this one. Take the over.
09-23-17	Penn State v. Iowa UNDER 52.5		21-19	Win	100	26 h 15 m	Show
4 Star Play Under Iowa ranks 27th in the nation in highest percentage of running plays compared to overall offensive plays. The Hawkeyes are going to come out and try to run the ball consistently at Penn State. I don't see Iowa taking many chances in the passing game here. Penn State is playing slower on offense than they did last year, and Iowa is always a team that takes their time with the football. The Iowa front seven is solid, and I think they'll make Barkley (a great runner) work hard for his yards here. There is bad blood here after Penn State said Iowa quit in last year's game. Iowa should bring a strong effort, and I think that should help the under. The under is 5-1 in Iowa's last 6 home games. Take the under.
09-23-17	Florida v. Kentucky UNDER 47		28-27	Loss	-110	124 h 7 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Kentucky Wildcats are playing slower this year than they did last season. They've also been much improved on defense. They rank second in the nation in run defense. The Florida Gators defense hasn't been great in the first two games, but they faced two pretty good teams. Florida should settle in and be a top 20 defense by the end of the year. The Wildcats offense is running the ball 63% of the time on their plays this year. Florida is playing 122nd fastest out of 130 teams in the country. It's a combination that should equal a lot of ticking clock and less possessions for each team. Kentucky is extremely hungry to stop their losing streak against Florida, and this should be a good environment for football Saturday. My number here was 42.5, so I see several points of value. Take the under.