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Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
11-07-20	Western Kentucky v. Florida Atlantic UNDER 39.5		6-10	Win	100	22 h 42 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Florida Atlantic Owls have played three games this year. The final scores in those games have been: 21-17, 20-9, and 24-3. Western Kentucky has scored 14 points or less on offense in their last four straight games. These two teams have shown the ability to play in some very low scoring games. The tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico will change this game. The current forecast calls for sustained winds of 25-30 mph in this game with gusts to 40 mph. There is an 80 percent chance for rain and there could even be some heavy rain and thunderstorms during this one. These two teams are already fairly conservative on offense, but they will likely be even more conservative here. It will be very tough to kick field goals in this weather. Neither of these teams get many big plays to begin with, and in this weather that should be cut down even more. Take the under.
11-07-20	Oklahoma State v. Kansas State UNDER 51.5		20-18	Win	100	122 h 25 m	Show
4 Star Play Under Oklahoma State's game against Texas last weekend was deceptive. It was a very high scoring game, but Texas only gained a measly 3.8 yards per play. Oklahoma State turned the ball over in their own end a bunch, and they also gave up a kick return touchdown. Kansas State is a good under team with their running the football and very slow paced offense. Oklahoma State is a very run heavy team as well, and I think Kansas State will try to load up the box in this one. The early forecast for this game calls for 25 mph winds with gusts of 35-40 mph. That would be a big boost to the under as well. Take the under.
11-07-20	Michigan v. Indiana UNDER 54.5		21-38	Loss	-107	14 h 6 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Michigan Wolverines defense was a disappointment last week against Michigan State. I think they'll play better here. Michigan has a strong defensive line. They are up against an Indiana team that is really struggling on the offensive front. Penix isn't a bad quarterback for Indiana, but he hasn't had much time to throw. Stevie Scott hasn't had anywhere to run either. Michigan's offensive line is a major weakness this year too, and Indiana has a solid defensive front seven. I don't know that Michigan has the tools to make Indiana pay for their relative weakness in the secondary. Both of these teams have struggled with getting big plays offensively in recent years. These are two teams with defensive-minded head coaches. I think this one should be around 51 so I'll take the value here. Take the under.
11-01-20	Saints v. Bears UNDER 45.5		26-23	Loss	-108	125 h 44 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Chicago Bears have been great at turning games into low scoring contests. Even in an NFL environment where there have been a lot of high scoring games this year, Chicago has seen 5 of their 7 games finish at 39 points or fewer. The New Orleans offense ranks 15th in the NFL in yards per play. New Orleans ranks 11th in yards per play allowed, but they have faced the toughest schedule of offenses in the NFL so far this year. The Chicago offense ranks 31st in the NFL in yards per play. They don't have a good option at quarterback. This offense has been a mess all year long. These two teams rank 25th and 27th in the NFL in explosive plays. These are teams who are far more likely to gradually move the ball down the field than do it in big chunks. The weather is calling for winds of 12 or 13 mph with gusts to 22 mph for this game. That helps the under as well. Take the under.
11-01-20	Patriots v. Bills UNDER 43		21-24	Loss	-106	107 h 52 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Four of the Patriots six games have finished at 39 points or fewer so far this year. The Patriots offense has all sorts of problems right now. The offensive line is badly banged up. Cam Newton isn't playing well and they don't have another good option to turn to. The Patriots have to be able to run the ball to move it consistently, but opponents are daring them to throw it and loading up the box. The Bills will do the same. Buffalo's offense is shorthanded right now as well. Buffalo has to be able to throw to move the ball consistently, because this running game of Buffalo isn't good. The New England secondary is a relative strength too. The weather here should be a problem. Some showers could be in the area, but the big deal here is the wind. Sustained winds of 21 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph will make both teams far more conservative here. Take the under.
11-01-20	Raiders v. Browns UNDER 52		16-6	Win	100	83 h 40 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Cleveland Browns and Las Vegas Raiders meet on Sunday in Cleveland. The story here will be the weather. The chance of rain is about 50% throughout this game, but that isn't the problem here for scoring. The problem is the huge amount of wind. The current average of forecasts I use (4 different weather sites) is 26 mph sustained winds with gusts of 43 mph. That would become one of the windiest games we have seen in a long time. We have seen under money come in on this game already, and I think it continues to come in as we get closer to game time. This kind of wind changes the game plan for both teams. Baker Mayfield likes to throw the ball downfield, but he is without Odell Beckham Jr. here and it will be extremely hard to throw in this kind of wind. It is important to note that the wind is expected to be blowing from side to side in the stadium, and that makes it even tougher for quarterbacks. The Raiders passing attack has really impressed me this year, but it isn't likely to be nearly as successful as normal in these conditions. The Raiders offensive line has struggled in run blocking. Take the under here.
10-31-20	Nevada v. UNLV OVER 57		37-19	Loss	-110	129 h 44 m	Show
3 Star Play Over I really like Carson Strong in the air raid offense of Nevada. Nevada's passing attack couldn't be stopped against a Wyoming defense that is clearly better than this UNLV defense. UNLV allowed 5.67 yards per play against San Diego State offense that has major problems. UNLV should improve some offensively, and I think they'll have to pick up their pace as they are likely playing from behind in this game. The Rebels have several options at quarterback this season. I had this one in the low 60's. Take the over.
10-31-20	Arkansas v. Texas A&M UNDER 57		31-42	Loss	-105	126 h 34 m	Show
4 Star Play Under I've been really impressed by the Arkansas secondary so far this year. They have faced some good passing attacks and really shut them down. Their performance against Ole Miss was particularly impressive. Barry Odom is doing a great job with this defense. Kellen Mond and Texas A&M are inconsistent on offense. I see this being a team that can look great on some days and terrible on others. Arkansas should give them enough looks that frustrate them and make them less efficient than normal. Arkansas on offense has only 11 plays of 20 yards or more in four games. The Razorbacks don't get big chunks, and Texas A&M is a well-coached defense. This one is a few points too high. Take the under.
10-31-20	Texas v. Oklahoma State UNDER 59		41-34	Loss	-109	26 h 34 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma State Cowboys are both significantly better on offense than they have been in recent seasons. They returned a lot of talent defensively, and Texas upgraded at the defensive coordinator spot. Oklahoma State is a run heavy team, so the clock should keep ticking on a lot of their offensive plays. Texas will give up some yards here, but they have been solid at not giving up big rushing plays. Texas' offensive line hasn't held up well against the best defensive lines they have played this year. I think this Oklahoma State defensive front gets in the backfield quite a bit in this contest. The weather here calls for winds of 15-17 mph which is a bit of a help for the under as well. The recent high scores between these two has given us some value on the under. Take the under here.
10-31-20	Northwestern v. Iowa OVER 45		21-20	Loss	-115	122 h 43 m	Show
3 Star Play Over With a new offensive coordinator this year, Northwestern is playing much quicker. The Wildcats offense looked great against Maryland in game one. They averaged 6.47 yards per play in that contest. Iowa is clearly better on defense than Maryland, but Iowa's defense is definitely down from a couple years ago. Iowa still has enough weapons on offense to move the ball at least some of the time in this game. The posted total was set so low that with the pace Northwestern is playing at, I had to back the over here. Take the over.
10-31-20	Indiana v. Rutgers UNDER 53.5		37-21	Loss	-110	18 h 48 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Rutgers Scarlet Knights only scored a bunch of points on Michigan State because Michigan State turned the ball over 7 times! Rutgers only managed 3.9 yards per play on offense. The Scarlet Knights will be improved on offense from a year ago (it would be hard not to be), but this offense isn't good. Rutgers will play at a relatively slow pace this year, and I would expect a lot of running plays. That plays into the strength of the Indiana defense, which is their front seven. Indiana has gotten so much better against the run in the last few years under Tom Allen. Indiana wasn't good offensively against Penn State. They averaged only 3.4 yards per play on offense. Again, it was Penn State's miscues that led to easier scores for Indiana. The Hoosiers will look quite a bit better on offense here, but their offensive line isn't very good. I think Penix and the skill position players will make some nice plays, but I don't think they totally dominate this Rutgers defense. This one is a few points too high. Take the under.
10-31-20	Central Florida v. Houston OVER 76.5		44-21	Loss	-109	120 h 6 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The UCF Knights games have been extremely high scoring this year. In fact, three of their five games have finished with 79 points or more. The Knights other two games finished with 60 and 70 points. UCF ranks third in the nation in tempo. They are averaging a whopping 7.05 yards per play. Houston's defense has been terrible against the pass, and UCF has plenty of weapons in the passing game. BYU put up 43 points on Houston, and BYU doesn't play at a quick pace. The UCF defense has disappointed this year. They have allowed 34 points or more in their last three games. Houston's weapons at skill positions on offense are very solid. Take the over.
10-29-20	South Alabama v. Georgia Southern UNDER 51.5		17-24	Win	100	40 h 22 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Georgia Southern Eagles play at an extremely slow pace. They are using nearly 33 seconds between plays, which would have ranked them as the slowest pace team in the nation last season. This is an extremely slow paced team that runs the football nearly 75% of the time. There will be a lot of running clock in this one. South Alabama is improved on offense, but they have played some really weak defense and they are due for some regression. They are converting on 49.32% of third down conversion attempts and that can't continue for a team that is getting behind the chains with as many big negative plays as they are right now. They are improved on offense, but they aren't this much better. South Alabama is also slower than the average team by quite a bit in terms of tempo. Some wind is expected for this one in Statesboro on Thursday night. Sustained winds of about 16 mph are a boost to the under. This midweek games have trended under through the years in college football. I see value on the under here. Take the under.
10-26-20	Bears v. Rams UNDER 45		10-24	Win	100	67 h 52 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The last two years these two teams have met and the final scores were 15-6 and 17-7. That certainly isn't the only reason I'm betting the under here, but it is a good start. The Chicago Bears offense ranks 30th in the NFL in yards per play. Chicago's offensive line is questionable, and the Rams do bring a lot of pressure. Look for the LA defensive line led by Aaron Donald to be in the backfield quite a bit in this one. Nick Foles hasn't been terrible, but he has been a game manager. They don't take a lot of shots downfield. Chicago moves pretty slowly, and has had to settle for field goals often in the red zone. The Rams offense is good, but they have played a lot of weaker defenses this year. That won't be the case in this one. Chicago has the best secondary in the league, and we've seen this secondary give Jared Goff a lot of trouble the last two seasons. Robert Woods is questionable here with an injury, and if he doesn't play or isn't 100 percent that slows this Rams offense down. This field has seen a bunch of low scoring games played on it. The referee crew in this one has also been very good to under bettors. Look for the defenses to have the upper hand here. Take the under.
10-25-20	49ers v. Patriots UNDER 45.5		33-6	Win	100	122 h 20 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The New England Patriots offense has been a mess of late. Their offensive line is badly banged up now, and they can't keep the running game going as they were earlier in the season. New England has averaged only 5.3 yards per play in their last three contests. The Patriots had high scoring games against the Seahawks and Raiders, but those two teams have some of the highest scoring games of anyone in the NFL. The Patriots other three games have all finished at 36 points or lower. The 49ers have been playing slower of late. San Francisco ranks 27th in the NFL in tempo. The 49ers are trying to lean heavily on their running game. New England is good at not allowing big plays, so I think the 49ers drives will take quite a while in this one. New England runs the ball at the third highest rate as a percentage of plays. They also rank in the bottom 10 in tempo in their last three contests. Take the under here.
10-25-20	Chiefs v. Broncos UNDER 47.5		43-16	Loss	-110	101 h 17 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The two times these teams met last year the final scores were 23-3 and 30-6. The Chiefs defense is better than most people realize. Kansas City is able to pressure the quarterback and they have a good pass defense. The Broncos lack a strong running game to be able to move the ball consistently on the Chiefs. The Denver offense is a mess. The Broncos may have won last weekend, but it was because of the defense and not the offense. The Denver defense is very strong on the defensive line. Denver doesn't allow many big plays. The other factor here is the weather. Snow is in the forecast for this game. Snow likely with wind as well. When you combine those two, it is a clear help for the under. I think this number drops through the week with the weather, and I like the chances of this being a lower scoring contest. Take the under.
10-24-20	Wyoming v. Nevada OVER 48	Top	34-37	Win	100	125 h 12 m	Show
5 Star TOP Play Over Nevada returns 10 starters on the offensive end this year. They will run the air raid with Mumme as their offensive coordinator. With a second year quarterback who looked good as a freshman, I expect their offensive numbers to be much better this season. Wyoming has two solid quarterback options in Chambers and Williams. The Wyoming offensive line is probably the best offensive line in the Mountain West. The Cowboys should be able to run the ball on nearly everyone in this conference. Wyoming's defense should be way down from a year ago, and that is the primary reason I think this total is several points too low. With more scoring in general this year, this is a very low posted total. I think both teams get into the mid 20's here at least. Take the over. TOP Rated play.
10-24-20	Baylor v. Texas UNDER 64	Top	16-27	Win	100	122 h 51 m	Show
5 Star TOP Play Under Texas has had several high scoring games that are very misleading. They went into 4 overtimes vs. Oklahoma, but both teams averaged less than 5 yards per play. They also had a bunch of special teams/defensive setups for scores against Texas Tech in a game that should have never been so high scoring. Baylor has a great defensive mind at head coach now and I think they can scheme their way to making Texas work hard. Also, Texas lost their top receiver due to injury. My number here is in the upper 50's. Take the under. TOP Rated play.
10-24-20	Auburn v. Ole Miss OVER 63.5		35-28	Loss	-109	118 h 19 m	Show
4 Star Play Over Ole Miss is one of the best over teams in the country right now. Lane Kiffin's team was slowed down by the windy weather, a bunch of turnovers, and a really good Arkansas secondary last weekend. That made this total low enough to bet the over. Auburn's offense was better than the final score would indicate against South Carolina. It was their turnovers that really stopped them. Auburn averaged 5.8 yards per play. They are up against a much weaker defense in Ole Miss this week. The Ole Miss offense is the best offense Auburn has faced so far this year. While Auburn doesn't have a bad defense, it is clearly much weaker than it was a year ago. Take the over here.
10-24-20	Temple v. Memphis OVER 69		29-41	Win	100	118 h 18 m	Show
3 Star Play Over These two teams both rank in the top 15 in the country so far this year in tempo. Temple's defense has been a strength in recent years, but they lost nearly everything they had from a year ago. Memphis is going to score a lot of points on nearly everyone in this conference with their skill position talent and the tempo they play at on a consistent basis. Temple should be able to throw the ball on this Memphis secondary, especially if they are playing from behind. While this total is set at a high level, I had this one a few points higher. Look for a lot of points in this contest. Take the over.
10-22-20	Giants v. Eagles UNDER 45		21-22	Win	100	16 h 16 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Philadelphia Eagles have been able to score points when they get down early and need to comeback in the fourth quarter, but in other spots, they have struggled offensively. Philadelphia is 26th in the NFL in yards per play on offense. Carson Wentz isn't a bad quarterback, but he has been without an offensive line and many of the weapons around him all year. Miles Sanders and Alshon Jeffrey are out for this one. Jack Driscoll is also out on the line. Lane Johnson is expected to try to play, but he is far less than 100 percent. New York put up a big number on Dallas' defense, but who hasn't? The Giants have averaged less than 14 points per game in their other five games this year. This New York offense is awful. Saquon Barkley is missed badly, and Daniel Jones has been very weak as a passer. The Eagles still have a strong defensive front seven, and I don't think the Giants can consistently move the ball through the air on many teams. The Giants defense has shown signs of life lately. They have been especially strong against the run. This is a divisional game that does mean a lot to the teams since the NFC East is wide open. Take the under.
10-18-20	Rams v. 49ers OVER 51		16-24	Loss	-114	88 h 10 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The San Francisco 49ers secondary is a mess right now. Miami put up 6.9 yards per play in a win over the 49ers last week. The Rams offense is a top ten offense in the NFL. I don't see the 49ers defense being able to stop the Rams passing attack. There are too many weapons for the Rams, and Sean McVay is good at scheming in a way to attack weaknesses. The Rams should put up a big number here. The 49ers are starting to get healthier on offense. Jimmy G was put in last week when he had little practice, and some of the weapons around him were missing. I think the 49ers offense can be much better this week. The Rams had a couple defensive players banged up in their win at Washington last week, and this is a Rams defense that is very thin at multiple positions. The Rams defense isn't nearly as good as they look on paper. They have faced a very weak slate of offenses. In fact, if you look at the offenses these two defenses have faced so far this year, they rank as the 2nd easiest and 3rd easiest slate of offenses according to Football Outsiders. These defenses are worse than they appear. I see a back and forth game here. Take the over.
10-18-20	Packers v. Bucs OVER 54.5		10-38	Loss	-110	43 h 13 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Green Bay Packers offense has been tremendous so far this year. They are averaging 38 points per game thus far this season. Green Bay hasn't had Devante Adams for their last couple games, and he is their best weapon on offense. I don't think Tampa Bay has anyone who can slow Adams down on the outside. Aaron Rodgers has been in great form so far this season. He is willing to take a lot of deep chances, and in past seasons this Tampa secondary has given up a lot of big plays in the passing game. Tampa Bay's offense has been up against some very solid defenses so far this season. The Packers defense will be the worst defense they have faced so far this year. Tampa Bay's wide receivers are finally getting healthy, and this is one of the best groups of receivers in the NFL. I think Tampa will be able to move the ball consistently here too. Jerome Boger's crew is the referee crew for this game. The over is 106-74 (58.9%) in his games. They are known for their consistent pass interference calls on the defense. This is a high total, but I think both teams move the ball and cash in on big plays throughout. Take the over.
10-17-20	North Texas v. Middle Tennessee State OVER 66		52-35	Win	100	124 h 59 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The North Texas Mean Green rank first in the nation in tempo, and it isn't particularly close. This team is absolutely flying up and down the field. Their offense is solid. They haven't scored in the red zone at the rate you would expect or they would have scored even more points. That should improve over time. North Texas' defense might be the worst in the country. They give up big gainers constantly. MTSU has been inconsistent on offense this year, but against this North Texas defense they should be able to move the ball and score easily. MTSU's defense is very weak against the run, and that is the strength of the North Texas offense. I made this total in the low 70's, so I like the value here. Take the over.
10-17-20	Virginia v. Wake Forest OVER 57.5		23-40	Win	100	25 h 31 m	Show
3 Star Play Over Wake Forest plays extremely fast. They want their game to be a shootout, and they have been pretty good at forcing those shootouts. Wake Forest has a good quarterback in Hartman and they have enough skill position players to give Virginia some trouble. The Cavs secondary isn't what it was a couple years ago. Virginia's starting quarterback is questionable here, and we may well see the backup here. That is a big reason why this total has moved down. I wouldn't have bet this game over the total at the opening line, but after the substantial drop this one is too good of a price for me to pass up. Virginia has sped up their pace of play this year. We have two teams ranked in the top 14 in tempo out of all the teams playing thus far this season. We have seen a lot of higher scoring games in college football this year, and a number this low in a Wake Forest game is an over bet for me unless they are playing an elite defense. They aren't in this one. Take the over.
10-17-20	Duke v. NC State OVER 59		20-31	Loss	-108	24 h 32 m	Show
3 Star Play Over Duke is playing 2.5 seconds faster between snaps than they were a year ago. We have seen a couple high scoring games from the Blue Devils in their last two contests. I think we will see another one here. Chase Brice is being more aggressive with the football. That can be good for the over because he throws pick sixes, and it can be good because Duke is getting more big plays than they did a year ago. These teams have given up 23 and 24 plays of 30 yards or more already this year. Both offenses rank in the top ten in explosive plays. We should see tempo and plenty of big gainers. The weather looks good in this one, and I had this one projected several points higher. Take the over.
10-17-20	Louisville v. Notre Dame UNDER 64		7-12	Win	100	50 h 3 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The weather forecast here plays a large role in me taking the under. Sustained winds of 22 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph are in the forecast for South Bend. That kind of weather really changes the game, and makes both offenses more predictable. In the long run, that kind of weather has been great for under bettors. Both of these teams play at a very slow tempo, so we shouldn't see too many possessions here. The Louisville defense has been bad this year, and I do think Notre Dame will score a decent amount of points here. Notre Dame's defense is pretty good, and Louisville should be more one dimensional than normal here. Take the under.
10-17-20	Liberty v. Syracuse OVER 53.5		38-21	Win	100	22 h 33 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Liberty Flames have a very good quarterback in Malik Willis. Willis is an excellent runner who can really put pressure on a defense with his dual threat abilities. The Syracuse defense wasn't very good to start with, and now they are without star safety Andre Cisco. Syracuse gave up more than 600 yards last week against Duke. I think Liberty will move the ball quite a bit here. Liberty's defensive numbers look pretty good this year, but you have to consider who they have played against. The Flames have faced Western Kentucky, FIU, UL Monroe, and an FCS team. Those are terrible offensive teams. Syracuse is bad offensively as well, but they have much higher recruited talent than any of those other teams. They also play at a very fast tempo. This is a game played inside and with a total set at a low level. Given the pace these two teams play at, I like the value on the over. Take the over.
10-11-20	Lakers v. Heat UNDER 216.5		106-93	Win	100	43 h 17 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Los Angeles Lakers missed a chance to finish off the Miami Heat in Game 5 on Friday night. The Lakers also failed to win that game despite some red hot shooting from beyond the arc from LeBron James. James is only a mediocre 3 point shooter (he's great at everything else), but he was 6/9 from long range on Friday night. The Lakers were shooting 56% from the floor in the middle of the third quarter in game five. The game did slow down and it narrowly edged over the total because of 17 points in the last 1:52 of the contest in Game 5. Miami and Los Angeles combined to average 1.17 points per possession in Game 5, which is far above their season averages. Both teams shot the ball really well from the floor. The teams also combined to shoot a sizzling 91% from the free throw line. The 39 points from the charity stripe were key in sending the game just over the posted total. The under has been great bet in the long run in close out games in the NBA playoffs. The pace tends to slow and the defenses lock in even more. The average pace in games 4 and 5 has been 92.75 possessions. If game 6 has 93 possessions, the teams could average 1.16 and 1.15 points per possession and it still stays under this total. For the season as a whole, both of these teams averaged a tick under 1.12 points per possession. Since there is so much on the line and the shooting numbers were clearly above average in Game 5, I'm going to side with the under here in Game 6. If both teams shoot the lights out it will lose, but history is on our side and the line value is there. Take the under.
10-11-20	Raiders v. Chiefs UNDER 56		40-32	Loss	-110	36 h 45 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Kansas City Chiefs have a tremendous offense. They are more than capable of putting up a big number at any time. Still, Andy Reid's teams have been great under bets when they are big favorites. Why? Reid is often conservative after getting a lead. His teams grab a lead and then use the clock and move on to play another week. Kansas City plays Buffalo in their next contest after this as well, and that will be a huge game for playoff seeding with the Bills sitting at unbeaten so far this year. Las Vegas has a good running game, and I do think they'll get their yards on the ground in this game. The Raiders don't have a good downfield passing game though. The Chiefs actually rank #1 in the NFL in pass defense DVOA so far this year. They now add in Breeland (suspended the first four weeks). This Chiefs secondary is solid. There is wind of 12-15 mph expected here and while that isn't major, that does help the under a bit. The biggest reason I'll bet this game is this system- when Andy Reid's team is at home and favored by 6 or more the under is a whopping 41-19 in the last 60 contests. When the total is 44.5 or higher, the under is 24-7. Take the under.
10-10-20	Mississippi State v. Kentucky UNDER 59.5		2-24	Win	100	124 h 8 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Kentucky Wildcats are going to do a lot of running the football this year. They ran all over Ole Miss, but the Mississippi State defense should be a tougher task. Kentucky will still get a lot of yards. I do expect it to take them time though. Look for Kentucky to try to keep the ball away from Mike Leach's air raid offense by controlling the time of possession here. Mississippi State has allowed only 1.91 yards per carry so far this year. The offense looked amazing against LSU, but it stumbled badly against Arkansas. The Kentucky defense is a veteran group and with an 0-2 record coming into this one, we should get a strong effort from Kentucky. Take the under here.
10-10-20	Kansas State v. TCU UNDER 55.5		21-14	Win	100	121 h 44 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The highest total in a game between these two teams in the last four years has been a combined score of 41 points. TCU's defense hasn't looked good in the first two games of the season, but Patterson is a defensive-minded coach and this group has a lot of talent. I would expect much better results going forward. Kansas State has a QB injury with Skylar Thompson questionable here. Even if he does play I like this under. The Wildcats play very slowly and they won't change that style no matter what. TCU's offense isn't very efficient, and Kansas State's isn't either. Take the under.
10-10-20	Pittsburgh v. Boston College UNDER 43.5		30-31	Loss	-110	26 h 2 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Boston College Eagles host the Pitt Panthers on Saturday afternoon. I've really been impressed with this Boston College defense under new coach Jeff Hafley. He was a defensive coordinator at Ohio State and did a great job with that Buckeyes defense. He is already helping this Eagles defense immensely. Pitt has a top five defense in the country. Rashad Weaver is one of the best pass rushers in the country. The Panthers rank 3rd in the nation in yards per carry allowed (1.98). The weather in this game should be helpful. Sustained winds of about 20 mph are in the forecast with gusts to 25 or 30 mph. That is enough to change the game, especially since the winds are forecast to be blowing side to side in the stadium rather than at the back of either team. Both of these teams prefer to throw rather than run, but the weather will make it more difficult. Both teams have really struggled to get any running game going. I expect a defensive battle here. Take the under.
10-10-20	Central Arkansas v. Arkansas State UNDER 66		27-50	Loss	-110	75 h 39 m	Show
3 Star Play Under This game is set for Saturday afternoon in Jonesboro, Arkansas. The weather forecast for here looks very bleak. The current forecast calls for sustained winds of 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph. There is also a 50% chance of rain through the day. Arkansas State doesn't have a good defense, but they are stepping down in class to play Central Arkansas instead of Memphis, Kansas State, or a good Coastal Carolina offense. Arkansas State is more than a two touchdown favorite here. The Red Wolves and the Bears of Central Arkansas are very likely to play more conservatively with this kind of weather. It would be very hard to throw the football very often with winds blowing side to side at 20-35 mph here. The run defenses aren't very good, but if they know what is coming it should help quite a bit. Totals set this high in weather games have been great under bets over the years. Take the under here.
10-10-20	UL-Monroe v. Liberty OVER 58		7-40	Loss	-110	116 h 27 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Liberty Flames are expected to have Malik Willis back for this one. He is a star quarterback who can do it all. ULM's defense has already allowed 21 plays of 20 yards or more, and Liberty will get a lot of big gainers in this one as well. Liberty pushes the tempo, and they'll be playing in the lead here. ULM will have no choice but to pick up the pace. ULM showed some offensive strength finally last weekend against a decent Georgia Southern defense. Liberty is very weak defensively, and ULM should be able to produce enough offensively here, especially since they should get some garbage time points. Take the over.
10-10-20	Virginia Tech v. North Carolina OVER 57		45-56	Win	100	21 h 39 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The North Carolina Tar Heels offense hasn't been very good so far this year, but this offense has too much talent to struggle all season. Sam Howell is one of the better quarterbacks in the nation. He has a good offensive line and very good receivers around him as well. Virginia Tech's running game has really impressed me so far this year. The Hokies are averaging a whopping 7.01 ypc through their first two games. I certainly don't expect anything like that in this game, but the Hokies offensive line has been great in run blocking. North Carolina's defense hasn't been tested by a team that has any semblance of a running game. There is some rain in the forecast for this one which has made the total go down a few points, but the projected wind is 4 mph. Rain without wind is a neutral for the total. There are numerous injuries and COVID related absences in the secondary for both teams. That could lead to some big plays for both teams. Hendon Hooker is expected to play for Virginia Tech here, and he is their top option at quarterback. Take the over.
10-09-20	Heat v. Lakers UNDER 217		111-108	Loss	-107	67 h 40 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Los Angeles Lakers now lead the Miami Heat 3-1 in this series. The Lakers were much better defensively in game four. They were able to take away Butler's looks in the paint. Look for that to be a strategy that continues into this game to try to pack the paint as much as possible and force Butler to be a passer more often than not. Miami's defense is significantly better with Bam Adebayo on the floor. He is a good shot blocker near the rim. He also helps a lot on the defensive glass. Without him, the Lakers were crushing the Heat on the offensive boards. Adebayo isn't 100 percent, but him being on the floor is a positive for the under. The average tempo of the last three games in this series is 94 possessions. Closeout games often see a slow pace (especially if they are a tight game). If we see 94 possessions here, both teams could average 1.15 points per possession from the floor (very efficient on offense) and this one would fall just below 217 points. I think the tempo points this one to an under without a ref show or some ridiculous 3 point shooting. Those are always possible, but there is an edge here with the under with the projected pace and the Heat with their top defensive player again. Take the under.
10-08-20	Tulane v. Houston OVER 59		31-49	Win	100	77 h 14 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Tulane Green Wave have played faster this year. They will still run the football early and often, but I think that will help them against a Houston Cougars defense that should be weak against the run this year. Tulane's uptempo run game should get yards in bunches here. Houston has yet to play a game, but Dana Holgorsen has talked about wanting to play quickly. The Cougars have improved weapons at the skill positions around Clayton Tune this season. Tulane has yet to play against a really good offense. I think the Tulane secondary can be beaten. These two put up 69 points last year. I had this number several points higher than the current posted total. Take the over.
10-07-20	Rays v. Yankees OVER 9		8-4	Win	100	18 h 56 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The New York Yankees lineup got healthy at the right time of the year. With everyone ready to go, this is a scary good lineup. New York is averaging 9 runs per game through their first four games in the playoffs. Stanton is absolutely crushing the baseball, and there isn't an easy out in this lineup. Charlie Morton was a little shaky this season. He certainly has good stuff, but he isn't consistent and he'll have to be consistently tremendous to slow down this Yankees lineup. Morton has allowed the Yankees lineup a .349 weighted on base average in his career. The Yankees start Masahiro Tanaka who was really bad in his first playoff outing. Tanaka has allowed a .309 wOBA against this Rays lineup. Tampa Bay's offense is better than most realize, and the Rays should get plenty of scoring chances here. Mark Carlson is a clear over umpire based on his strikes called percentages in recent years, and he is behind home plate for this one. The ball has really been flying well in the playoffs, and I'll take the over in this one. Take the over.
10-04-20	Lakers v. Heat UNDER 219		104-115	Push	0	18 h 18 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Los Angeles Lakers beat the Miami Heat 124-114 in Game 2. The fact that last game was so high scoring creates an opportunity for us to get a much higher posted total for this contest. The shooting numbers last game were extremely high. These teams aren't likely to shoot it as well as they did in game 2. The Lakers put up a ridiculous 1.348 points per possession. Miami put up 1.253 points per possession on Friday night. The overall playoff averages are 1.168 for the Lakers and 1.133 for the Heat. The pace was actually much slower in game two than in game one. Miami is shorthanded here, and that could certainly make their defense a bit worse, but the Lakers scoring 1.348 points per possession against this scrappy Heat defense shouldn't be expected again. Additionally, the Lakers players said at length on Saturday that the team had talked about their disappointment with their defense in their game 2 win, and that would be an area of focus on Sunday. This is the highest posted total for any matchup between these two teams this year. Take the under.
10-04-20	Vikings v. Texans OVER 51.5		31-23	Win	100	155 h 57 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The NFL's rules right now are clearly favoring the offenses. Teams are playing quicker this year as well. The market continues to try to adjust to the higher totals, but there hasn't been a big enough adjustment yet. The Minnesota Vikings had one terrible game offensively against the Indianapolis Colts. That was a fluke, and it turns out the Colts defense is very solid. In their other two games, the Vikings have averaged 7.5 yards per play (Titans) and 7.8 yards per play (Packers). The emergence of Jefferson as another very good weapon on the outside makes the Vikings passing game dangerous. Minnesota's defense is far worse than it was a couple short seasons a go. This Vikings secondary is among the worst in the NFL. They also have a very poor defensive line (especially without Hunter). Houston has played the toughest schedule in the NFL thus far, and the Texans are going to score points against bad defenses. Here is a bad defense in the Vikings. Look for Watson and company to put up some big numbers. Take the over.
10-04-20	Chargers v. Bucs UNDER 42.5		31-38	Loss	-105	34 h 42 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Tampa Bay Bucs defense ranks 4th in the NFL in total yards allowed per game. The rushing defense is as good as you'll find in the NFL, and the secondary is quickly improving. Todd Bowles is a great defensive coordinator and he is really making his mark on this unit. The LA Chargers haven't given up more than 23 points in a game so far this year (and that was KC scoring 23 in overtime against them). The Chargers secondary is very solid, and they have a strong pass rush. Tom Brady hasn't looked in sync yet, and Leonard Fournette is out for this game. Chris Godwin is also out at WR. The Chargers are without two starters on the offensive line. Tampa Bay's defensive front should dominate them here. Justin Herbert is making his first road start here. I expect him to struggle in this one. The weather calls for a 80% chance of rain and some winds of about 10-12 mph during this one as well, which helps the under. Take the under.
10-04-20	Seahawks v. Dolphins OVER 54.5		31-23	Loss	-110	12 h 49 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Miami Dolphins rank 29th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Seattle Seahawks rank 31st in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Jamal Adams and Quinton Dunbar are both out from the Seattle secondary for this one. Adams is the best player in this secondary, and that is a huge loss for a team that is already giving up a lot of big plays in the air. Three other guys in the Seattle secondary are questionable here. There are major injury issues in the Seattle secondary. Miami cornerback Byron Jones is listed as doubtful here, and he would be a major loss as the Dolphins go against Russell Wilson and this fantastic Seattle passing attack. Seattle has been letting Russell Wilson air it out a lot more often this year, and I see no reason why they would stop here. The Dolphins weakness now is in the secondary and Seattle has clear matchup advantages there. Ryan Fitzpatrick is capable of big plays for Miami, especially against a really weak Seattle secondary. Seattle is 30th in explosive play defense, so they have already been giving up bunch of big plays and now they are much more banged up. The weather initially looked questionable for this game, but the current forecast looks much better with a very small chance for rain and less wind (12 mph). Take the over.
10-03-20	Southern Miss v. North Texas OVER 71.5		41-31	Win	100	25 h 39 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The North Texas Mean Green rank first in the country in tempo so far this year, and it isn't very close. North Texas coach Seth Littrell took over the offense this year and he said they wanted to go fast. He wasn't kidding. North Texas has a good spread offense with the ability to run or throw. The Mean Green are averaging 7.16 yards per play this year (9th in the country so far). Southern Miss allowed 66 points in an embarrassing loss to Tulane last week. I'm not expecting that kind of number allowed here, but this Southern Miss defense is allowing all kinds of big plays. They have already allowed 13 plays of 30 yards or more this year. Southern Miss does have a good passing attack. I expect them to be able to move the ball against a North Texas defense that is one of the worst in the country. North Texas gave up 65 points to SMU. Southern Miss definitely isn't SMU, but the Golden Eagles should be able to throw it around here too. The pace should be there the whole way. Yes, this is a very high total, but my numbers put this game reaching into the upper 70's. Take the over.
10-03-20	Ole Miss v. Kentucky OVER 57.5		42-41	Win	100	120 h 50 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Ole Miss offense is going to play extremely fast under Lane Kiffin this year. Ole Miss gashed a really solid Florida defense this past weekend. They had 7 plays of 30 yards or more. Amazing. Kentucky has a pretty good defense, but I don't think they'll shut down Ole Miss either. The Rebels have a lot of playmakers at the skill positions on offense and they'll be put in a good position to succeed. Kentucky's offensive line is much better than the Ole Miss defensive front. I would expect Kentucky to have a much easier time moving the ball than they did last week against Auburn's defense. Take the over.
10-03-20	Texas Tech v. Kansas State UNDER 64		21-31	Win	100	21 h 39 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Kansas State Wildcats put up a big number last week, but that was largely due to Oklahoma's mistakes. Kansas State only had 10 first downs in that contest. Kansas State is playing at the third slowest pace of any team currently playing in college football. This team wants to run the ball and use up the clock. They should want to do that even more than normal here to keep Alan Bowman and this Texas Tech offense off the field. Texas Tech still plays quickly on offense, but they aren't quite as fast as they were a few years ago. The Red Raiders offense is far less efficient as well. They are only 23rd out of 72 teams in the country in yards per play on the year. Last week's game against Texas was misleading from a totals standpoint. Texas Tech only gained 5.8 yards per play and allowed just 5.3 yards per play against Texas. The last two years the meetings between these two teams have stayed well under this posted total. It isn't easy taking an under in a Texas Tech game, but I think Kansas State will control the tempo here. Take the under.
10-03-20	UTSA v. UAB OVER 54.5		13-21	Loss	-110	18 h 39 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The UTSA Roadrunners have played much quicker this year than they did a year ago. UTSA averaged 25.79 seconds between snaps last year, but they are averaging only 22.35 seconds between snaps this year. UTSA also only averaged 5.06 yards per play last season, but they are at 5.86 yards per play this year. Their running game has had quite a bit of success in the early going. UAB is also playing a little more than a second quicker this year. The Blazers quarterback for this one is Bryson Lucero, who had a big game last week against UAB. I think he gives the team more big play ability through the air than Johnston does. UTSA has a very weak defense. They are unlikely to be able to slow down UAB here. While UAB does have a good pass defense, their run defense has been shaky this season. Look for UTSA to be able to break some big gainers in the running game. Take the over.
10-03-20	Baylor v. West Virginia UNDER 55		21-27	Win	100	116 h 57 m	Show
4 Star Play Under I see West Virginia as an under team with their strong defensive front and weak offensive line. The Mountaineers don't push the tempo like most in the Big 12 do either. Baylor looks like they were great offensively against Kansas if you just look at the final score, but that was primarily special teams greatness against a terrible Kansas kick coverage team. Baylor's YPP was a weak 5.25 against a bad Kansas defense. Coach Aranda is obviously a defensive guy and Baylor should be pretty good on defense. The Mountaineers defense is one of the best in the Big 12. This one is several points too high. Take the under.
09-28-20	Chiefs v. Ravens OVER 54		34-20	Push	0	19 h 11 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The NFL's rules right now are clearly favoring the offenses. Teams are playing quicker this year as well. The market continues to try to adjust to the higher totals, but there hasn't been a big enough adjustment yet. Kansas City's defense has allowed 6.1 yards per play against the Chargers and 6.7 yards per play against the Texans. They have really struggled with mobile quarterbacks in their first two games. That isn't a good weakness to have when you are about to take on Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. Kansas City's offense hasn't been amazing so far this year, but we all know it is coming. The Chiefs have too much talent and they are certainly going to finish the season as a top 2 or 3 offense in the NFL. Baltimore gets more big plays in the running game than any other team in the NFL. The Chiefs are weak in that regard. Additionally, the Chiefs are still shorthanded in the secondary without Breeland. I think the Ravens get the lead in this one, and that encourages more scoring here since KC can really play with pace and pile up the points when they are behind. Take the over here.
09-27-20	Lions v. Cardinals OVER 51.5		26-23	Loss	-110	164 h 20 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Arizona Cardinals are playing extremely fast this year. Kyler Murray in the second year of Kingsbury's system will be very good. Hopkins gives him an elite wide receiver. They are likely to finish with the fastest pace in the NFL this season. Arizona moved the ball pretty well against San Francisco, and they moved it very well against a strong Washington defensive front. The Cardinals now take on a very weak Detroit Lions defense. Detroit has major problems in the secondary. Mitch Trubisky lit them up in the 4th quarter in week one. Green Bay averaged 7.4 yards per play in their big win over Detroit. I'm not convinced Detroit will be able to slow down Arizona here. Arizona hasn't been tested very much defensively this year. The Cardinals played a 49ers team with a bunch of injuries on offense in week one. They took on a Washington team that is just weak on offense in their second game. Look for lots of plays in this one and big plays for both sides in the passing game. Take the over.
09-27-20	Bucs v. Broncos UNDER 43		28-10	Win	100	47 h 51 m	Show
4 Star NFL Top Total of the Week The Denver Broncos have a lot of questions, but they are almost all on the offensive side. The Broncos defense still is very strong. Tampa Bay did win last week against Carolina, but they weren't all that good offensively. The Bucs are only averaging 5.3 yards per play this year (24th in the NFL). Denver's offense has been even worse. Denver is averaging only 4.9 yards per play on the season. The Broncos are now with backup quarterback Jeff Driskel. Driskel isn't a big downgrade from Drew Lock, but Driskel is going to have a rough time here against a very strong Tampa Bay defense. I love the job Todd Bowles is doing with the Tampa Bay defense. They have been excellent at stopping the run in recent seasons, and that is still true, but they are much improved all around this year. I don't think the Broncos offensive line will perform well against them. Denver will try to play conservatively here, but I don't think they'll have much success. The weather is another real factor here. The forecast calls for 18-20 mph sustained winds with gusts of 35-40 mph. That is plenty to change a game plan. Expect to see a lot of running and short passes. It will be harder to stretch the field. Take the under here.
09-27-20	Bengals v. Eagles OVER 46		23-23	Push	0	73 h 20 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Cincinnati Bengals defense has one sack so far this year. Without Carson Wentz being pressured constantly, I think this Eagles offense can get going here. Cleveland moved the ball at will against Cincinnati last week. Cincinnati's offense will be clearly improved this year. Joe Burrow has looked very good in his first two games. Remember, he didn't get any preseason, and he has still played very well as a rookie in his first two games. The Bengals should be able to take advantage of the Eagles very weak linebackers. Burrow likes to use his tight ends in the passing game, and that should help here. The Eagles should have the lead here (they are a clear favorite), and the Bengals have played extremely fast when trailing so far this year. The Bengals have shown they have backdoor potential and can move the ball quickly late in the game. This one sits below the key numbers of 47 and 48. With no bad weather in the forecast, I like this one to get past the posted total. Take the over.
09-26-20	Tennessee v. South Carolina UNDER 48		31-27	Loss	-110	124 h 29 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Tennessee Volunteers should lean on the run game a lot this year. The strength of their entire team is the offensive line. They played slowly a year ago, and I expect them to play slowly again this season. Tennessee's defense didn't give up big plays last year. They were 3rd in the nation in fewest 20 yards or more plays allowed. With the secondary as a major strength I see that being the case again this year. South Carolina brought in Mike Bobo to be the new offensive coordinator. He has talked extensively about the team huddling up this year and slowing the tempo down a lot compared to what it was in recent seasons. Collin Hill won the starting job and I'm not high on him at quarterback. There isn't enough talent on this South Carolina offense. Marshawn Lloyd was going to be the star of the show here at RB, but he is out for the year with an injury. Look for a slow pace and a lot of moving clock in this game.
09-26-20	Tigers v. Royals OVER 9.5		4-3	Loss	-100	15 h 13 m	Show
3 Star Play Over Matt Boyd starts here against the Kansas City Royals. He shut them out last time against them, but this lineup has crushed him in his career overall. The Royals have a whopping .402 weighted on base average in 190 plate appearances against Boyd. Boyd's numbers this year are far worse across the board than last year. He has given up a lot more hard hit batted balls. He is giving up home runs in bunches. That doesn't bode well for him here with the weather forecast of temperatures in the 80's and wind blowing out 15-20 mph. The ball will carry well in KC on Saturday. Carlos Hernandez starts for the Royals, and he hasn't pitched above Single A until this month. He has a 3.46 ERA, but his FIP is 7.03 so he has been very fortunate. Manny Gonzalez is the home plate umpire and he is one of the best over umpires in baseball. Take the over here.
09-26-20	Duke v. Virginia UNDER 46.5		20-38	Loss	-110	19 h 48 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Duke Blue Devils offense hasn't been able to get going in the first two weeks. Struggling on offense against Notre Dame was to be expected, but averaging less than 5 yards per play against a questionable Boston College defense last week is a cause for concern. Virginia lost star Bryce Perkins, and their offense will look totally different. Virginia threw it on more than 54% of their plays last year, and I would expect a lot more running this season. They are likely to play slowly and try to keep the clock moving. Duke's secondary is injured badly, but the Blue Devils have great pass rushers. Virginia doesn't have the passer or receivers to make Duke pay through the air. The Virginia defense is strong led by a great group of linebackers. The Duke offensive front is likely to struggle with the front seven of the Cavs. Look for a tight low scoring game. Take the under.
09-26-20	West Virginia v. Oklahoma State UNDER 54		13-27	Win	100	120 h 4 m	Show
4 Star Play Under Spencer Sanders' injury hurts the Oklahoma State offense in a big way. Their backups are extremely weak as we saw on Saturday against Tulsa. The Cowboys were outgained by Tulsa, and their offensive line play was poor. Sanders is very questionable for this game (he's in a boot right now), and even if he plays he will be far less than 100%. The Mountaineers defensive line is the strength of their team. They should be able to slow down strong running attacks this year. Last year when these two teams met the final was 20-13. West Virginia's defense is better than it was a year ago. Oklahoma State returned 10 guys on defense, and they looked great in the season opener (though it was against Tulsa). With the uncertainty around Sanders, I believe this line is several points too high. Take the under.
09-26-20	Iowa State v. TCU UNDER 44		37-34	Loss	-105	16 h 18 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The TCU Horned Frogs offense isn't likely to be good this year. They have serious questions at the quarterback spot. Matthew Downing has been named the TCU starter at quarterback. Max Duggan has been cleared to play and might play some (he was diagnosed with a heart condition in the offseason). The Horned Frogs offensive line will have trouble with strong defensive fronts this year. Iowa State's offense is Brock Purdy and a bunch of question marks. Purdy is a solid quarterback, but the line in front of him and skill position talent around him isn't nearly as good as it was a year or two ago. TCU's defense looks much stronger on the defensive front this year, and Gary Patterson's teams are always good in the secondary. Iowa State's defense should get in the TCU backfield quite a bit here. In my opinion, these are the top two defenses in the Big 12. Take the under here.
09-26-20	Georgia Tech v. Syracuse UNDER 52.5		20-37	Loss	-105	15 h 49 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Syracuse Orange offense is dreadful. Syracuse is averaging less than 3 yards per play through their first two games. Pitt is a great defense so we can give them a partial pass for that, but North Carolina's defense isn't tremendous. Still, averaging 2.85 yards per play and having allowed 14 sacks in two games is just brutal. Neither of Syracuse's quarterbacks are the answer. The offensive line might be the worst in the country. Georgia Tech's defense is improving under Collins, who is a defensive-minded head coach. The Yellow Jackets allowed a bunch of points last week against UCF, but UCF is going to score in bunches against nearly everyone. Look for Georgia Tech's defense to look strong again in this one. The Syracuse defense has impressed me so far this year. They are running a new 3-3-5 defense, and it is hard prepare for. The Orange have confused opposing offenses. Georgia Tech has some improved skill position talent, but they are still young and I think the 3-3-5 can at least slow them down. Syracuse isn't going to just methodically move the ball up and down the field on anyone in their current state. If they don't hit big home run long touchdown, they aren't scoring. Look for the defenses to hold the upper hand in this game. Take the under.
09-24-20	Dolphins v. Jaguars OVER 47.5		31-13	Loss	-110	41 h 59 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Miami Dolphins pass defense has struggled badly through their first two weeks. Buffalo threw for more than 400 yards on them a week ago. Byron Jones is doubtful for this game, and he is clearly a very talented member of the Dolphins secondary. Jacksonville's pass offense has been surprisingly effective through the first couple weeks of the season. The Jaguars moved the ball at will against the Titans on Sunday. Gardner Minshew continues to exceed expectations week after week at the quarterback spot. He has a couple nice new weapons this year in Shenault and Eiffert. I think Jacksonville moves it through the air easily in this game. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a good over quarterback. He can make the big play downfield, and he can also throw the pick sixes at any time. The Dolphins still have a bunch of speed on the outside, and the Jaguars secondary is a weakness. The offenses have had the edge in the early going in the NFL. Without the fan noise and with the rules set to help offenses as much as possible, I think many of these lower totaled games with two questionable defenses are good over looks. Take the over here.
09-22-20	White Sox v. Indians OVER 8		3-5	Push	0	16 h 31 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Chicago White Sox start Reynaldo Lopez here. Reynaldo Lopez has been extremely shaky this year (and last for that matter). He has poor control and can really work himself into trouble and big innings for the opposition. In Lopez's last 10 starts, only one game hasn't gotten to a total of 8 runs (and that one was 7 runs). Five of the ten games have gotten to at least 11 runs. Cal Quantrill is slated to start this bullpen game for the Indians, and he's up against a very good White Sox offense. The White Sox should create plenty of scoring chances here against an Indians bullpen that has been in poor form of late. This total is set too low. Take the over.
09-21-20	Saints v. Raiders UNDER 49		24-34	Loss	-110	76 h 15 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Las Vegas Raiders open up their new stadium, but they'll do it without fans. This is still a huge game for the franchise. New Orleans is coming off a nice win over the Tampa Bay Bucs in week one. The Saints offense was actually a disappointment though. The Saints only averaged 4.1 yards per play. Michael Thomas is expected to miss this game as well, and he is arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL. This limits Drew Brees even further. The Saints don't play quickly, and they don't look to throw it downfield. They are looking for short passes and methodically moving the football. The New Orleans defense is underrated. This is a very good unit. The secondary is excellent and very deep. The Raiders are unlikely to be testing the Saints downfield. I think it is far more likely that the Raiders look to run the football early and often here with Jacobs. Derek Carr doesn't put up huge yardage through the air normally, and the Saints having a defensive coordinator who was previously Carr's coach is helpful to the defense as well. Take the under here.
09-20-20	49ers v. Jets UNDER 42.5		31-13	Loss	-110	73 h 35 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The San Francisco 49ers want to run the football early and often, especially with their injury issues right now. Deebo Samuel is out this week. George Kittle is banged up and is questionable here. Kittle might play, but he'll be less than 100 percent. The New York Jets really only do one thing well, and that is stop the run. The front seven has several good run stuffers. The Jets secondary is a weakness and the pass rush isn't very good, but the 49ers likely aren't the team to expose the pass defense weakness in their current form. The Arizona Cardinals moved the ball quite a bit on the 49ers defense last week, but the Jets offense shows no resemblance of the Cardinals offense. The Jets running game is very weak, and Sam Darnold doesn't have enough weapons on the outside either. The 49ers elite pass rush should give Darnold quite a bit of trouble throughout this contest. Look for this game to be played conservatively as the clock keeps ticking away. Take the under.
09-20-20	Falcons v. Cowboys OVER 53		39-40	Win	100	33 h 55 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Dallas Cowboys moved the ball just fine last week, but they didn't finish off drives. Atlanta put up a bunch of yards and quite a few points on Seattle last week, but their defense was torched by Seattle in the loss. Sean Lee was already out for Dallas, and then the Cowboys best defender and key linebacker Leighton Vander Esch went down with an injury last week. They can't afford to be without him thanks to a thin LB group, but he's out with an injury and he'll be missed badly. Atlanta has arguably the top wide receiver tandem in the NFL. The Cowboys secondary is mediocre at best this year. Look for Matt Ryan and the Falcons passing game to pick up big chunks here. Dallas is one of the best offenses in the NFL, and the Falcons have a bottom five defense in the league. The Cowboys have far too many weapons for Atlanta to slow them down in this one. Dak Prescott has all sorts of weapons around him, and I think they will get on track this week. Dallas' group of receivers is a top 3 group of WR's as well. This one is played on the fast track in Dallas, and both quarterbacks should look great against the opposing secondary. Take the over.
09-20-20	Vikings v. Colts OVER 48.5		11-28	Loss	-115	20 h 48 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Indianapolis Colts host the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday afternoon. Indianapolis' game last week against the Jaguars was misleading. The Colts never punted all game long. They put up more than 400 yards of offense. They had a couple key turnovers and were stopped on 4th down twice. Still, the Colts averaged an impressive 6.4 yards per play. The Minnesota Vikings defense has some major problems in the secondary. Aaron Rodgers was great last week, but those Packers receivers (who outside of Adams aren't all that good) were wide open throughout that game. Minnesota's defensive line is a major weakness without Danielle Hunter as well. The Colts offensive front is one of the best in the NFL, and they should give Phillip Rivers lots of time to throw here. They'll also open up plenty of holes for Taylor to run through. The Vikings run game is very good, and the Colts defensive line is questionable. I think the Vikings will break some big gainers in the run game. Also, I think it is likely the Colts will playing from ahead here, and that will make Minnesota get more aggressive in the passing game. We saw what could happen in a spot like that last week. The Vikings and Packers combined to score a whopping 38 points in the 4th quarter alone. This one is played indoors and that will help both Cousins and Rivers a lot here. Look for plenty of scoring. Take the over.
09-19-20	Padres v. Mariners UNDER 8		1-4	Win	100	19 h 15 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The San Diego Padres start Mike Clevinger here. Clevinger is coming off an outing where he pitched 7 innings and allowed no runs against the Giants. Clevinger now faces a below average Seattle Mariners offense in Petco Park, which is still a very good pitchers park. Clevinger is backed by a great Padres bullpen. They have the best FIP of any bullpen in the last month. This is a deep bullpen that has been throwing the ball extremely well. Justus Sheffield gets the start for the Mariners. Sheffield is a talented lefty who struggles at times to find the strike zone, but he has electric stuff and has a good swinging strike rate. The Padres are a very good offense, but they have been far better against right handed pitching than lefties. Eric Hosmer is also out with an injury right now. Additionally, Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire for this one. Eddings has called the highest percentage of pitches a strike in the last five years in Major League Baseball. He's a guy I want behind the plate if I'm betting an under. The Padres have held their opponent to one run or less in five of their last ten games. The Mariners are averaging just 2 runs per game in their last four contests. Take the under.
09-19-20	Tulsa v. Oklahoma State OVER 66		7-16	Loss	-110	16 h 36 m	Show
3 Star Play Over I expect really big things from the Oklahoma State offense this year. The Cowboys were very good offensively last year, but I expect them to take the next step to being elite on offense this year as Spencer Sanders improves in his sophomore season at quarterback. Oklahoma State has who I believe is the best running back in the country in Hubbard. Oklahoma State also has a top 3 or 4 group of wide receivers. The Cowboys want to play fast and they should be able to get plays in large bunches against a Tulsa defense that is going to be very weak this season. Tulsa's defense hasn't been very good in recent seasons, but they lost their top three defenders from last year's team. Tulsa's secondary is a mess, and Oklahoma State should be able to take advantage. Tulsa's offense is improved this year. With Smith at quarterback, Phillip Montgomery can actually run the type of offense he's been wanting to run for the last few years. Their pace will be extremely quick. No bad weather is in the area, and with the tempo this will be played at I expect a very high scoring game. Take the over.
09-18-20	Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 10.5		6-5	Win	100	17 h 27 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The New York Yankees are absolutely on fire on offense right now. New York has scored 20 runs, 13 runs, and 10 runs in their last three games. The Yankees have only scored less than 6 runs twice in their last eight games. Now the Yankees take on Martin Perez, who they have absolutely crushed. The Yankees lineup has a whopping .513 weighted on base average against Perez. Perez is a guy who walks too many batters and doesn't get enough swinging strikes. It's hard to see him having success here. Jordan Montgomery is a middle of the road lefty, and the Red Sox lineup still hits lefties well. Boston ranks in the top 8 offenses in the majors in the past two weeks overall. The Yankees and Red Sox bullpens have both been bottom ten bullpens in the last 14 days. Even if the runs aren't there early on, there should be scoring chances later in the game. Take the over.
09-15-20	Nuggets v. Clippers UNDER 208		104-89	Win	100	19 h 2 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Los Angeles Clippers and the Denver Nuggets are in a game seven on Tuesday night. It makes little sense that this series has gotten to a 7th game. The Clippers were in full control here and simply let this series get away from them. Game 7's have been money to the under this postseason thus far (3-0 to the under). They haven't been even close. This number has been adjusted down, so I won't make this a large play, but things tend to change quite a bit in a game 7. This is a win or go home game. There is a lot of pressure on both teams. The tempo slows down. The shooting percentages on the whole over time are lower as well in these spots. In this series already, the tempo has gradually slowed down from the first three games to the last three games. The Clippers are capable of locking down on defense when they are focused, and I would think we get a very focused Clippers defense here. The Nuggets will be looking to slow the pace of this game down. Take the under here.
09-15-20	Royals v. Tigers OVER 8.5		0-6	Loss	-105	17 h 8 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Kansas City Royals and the Detroit Tigers offenses aren't good against right handed pitching. Fortunately, they will be up against left handed pitchers here Kansas City ranks 23rd in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) against right handed pitching. The Royals rank 13th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. Detroit ranks 27th in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. The Tigers rank 5th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. The Royals offense has been on fire of late. Kansas City has scored an average of 7.33 runs per game in their last six games. The Tigers have allowed 12 runs or more in three of their last six games. Their bullpen has been the worst in baseball in the last couple weeks. Boyd has gotten much worse this year and the Royals have a .413 wOBA against him. The Tigers have a .311 wOBA against Duffy. Take the over here.
09-13-20	Cowboys v. Rams OVER 51.5		17-20	Loss	-110	19 h 39 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Los Angeles Rams still have more weapons on offense than many people realize. The wide receivers here are still very solid. Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, and Van Jefferson should be very productive. Jared Goff has shown he can be a quality NFL quarterback when put in the right spots and when given time. Dallas has a middle of the road pass rush. The Cowboys are also without Jourdan Lewis (CB) for this game. The Rams should play with pace here, and I think they'll get some big gainers on a Dallas defense that has some holes in it. Dallas has an amazing trio of wide receivers that is going to give just about any secondary trouble this year. The Rams still have very good corners, but they aren't as strong at the safety spots this year. The Rams LB's are a major weakness this season, and Dallas should be able to expose this group of LB's both in the running game and the passing game. The last four times these two teams have met the game has gone over the total. Look for a 5th straight over. Take the over here.
09-13-20	Packers v. Vikings UNDER 45		43-34	Loss	-108	20 h 42 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Green Bay Packers didn't get Aaron Rodgers weapons on the outside like he needed. Green Bay is going to have to lean on the running game even more heavily than they did a year ago. I look for the Packers to slow the pace of the game down and lean on their offensive front and the running backs quite a bit here. Minnesota will be among the most run-oriented offenses of anyone in the NFL. The Vikings have less weapons on the outside than they did a year ago, and they know Kirk Cousins can't just take over the game by himself. These two teams have a history of playing low scoring games against each other. Last year's games finished with 37 and 33 points total. These two teams know what the other one is going to do here, and that should help the defenses a lot. Bill Vinovich's crew will be doing this game and the under is 58-42 in Vinovich's 100 contests. Also, the under is a whopping 17-3 in the Vikings last 20 vs. a divisional opponent. Take the under.
09-13-20	Jets v. Bills UNDER 40		17-27	Loss	-110	11 h 55 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The New York Jets offense wasn't good to start with, and Robby Anderson was a pretty big loss at wide receiver in the offseason. Without Ryan Kalil at center, they yet again look very weak on the offensive line. The Buffalo Bills have improved skill position talent on offense, but the offensive line still isn't very good. The Jets have a pretty good run stuffing defensive line, and I think they can hold their own in this matchup. The weather here should be a major factor. The weather report calls for a 95% chance of rain during this game with sustained winds of 17 mph and gusts to 26 mph. That kind of weather makes the play calling far more conservative. It will be harder for Buffalo to try to utilize their new weapons at wide receiver. The two contests between these two teams last year finished with 33 points and 19 points total. Take the under.
09-12-20	Charlotte v. Appalachian State OVER 59.5		20-35	Loss	-110	22 h 36 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Appalachian State Mountaineers have a veteran offense led by Zac Thomas at quarterback. They have a deep group of running backs and a good offensive line as well. I expect App State to be a balanced and very strong offense this year. Appalachian State lost all 3 linebackers from last year, and all three of them were stars. They return just 5 starters on defense. The Mountaineers won't be bad defensively, but they are a clear step down from a year ago. Charlotte returns a bunch of production on offense. Reynolds is a really underrated quarterback for this team. They have the offensive line to run on most teams. The 49ers have talked about playing a bit faster this year as well. The 49ers defense isn't good enough to consistently slow down App State. The 49ers lost their top defensive lineman from last year. These two teams met last year and the final score was 56-41 App State. Do I think we see something like that again? No I don't. However, they don't have to get even close to that high scoring to cash the over here. Rain is expected here, but without wind I don't see rain as a negative, especially with two teams with great running games. Take the over.
09-11-20	Braves v. Nationals OVER 10.5		7-8	Win	100	15 h 57 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Washington Nationals start Erick Fedde here. There aren't many starting pitchers in baseball that I rate lower than Fedde right now. Fedde has a 5.29 ERA, and he has been very fortunate. Fedde has a 5.88 SIERA and a whopping 7.14 FIP. This guy has more walks than strikeouts through 32 and 1/3 innings. That's difficult to do. More than 40% of his batted balls have been classified as hard hit by Fangraphs. Fedde goes up against an Atlanta Braves offense that is first in the majors in every offensive category in the last couple weeks. The Braves have scored 7 runs or more in 7 of their last ten games, and a couple of those games were double headers (7 innings). This lineup is on fire and Fedde isn't likely to slow them down. Josh Tomlin has pitched ok for the Nationals, but he is aging and his stuff is mediocre at best. The Nationals actually rank 10th in wOBA in the last 14 days, and they have scored 5 runs or more in six of their last eight games. Take the over here.
09-10-20	Texans v. Chiefs OVER 54		20-34	Push	0	31 h 48 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Kansas City Chiefs adds Clyde Edwards-Helaire, which is a scary thought for opposing defenses. He is a great pass catcher out of the backfield, and Patrick Mahomes now has another elite pass catching option. Kansas City put up 51 points on Houston in the playoffs last year in that wild come from behind win. Houston's defense is no better than last season, and it might even be weaker. Kansas City's secondary makes them vulnerable against good passing attacks. The secondary is already a relative weakness, but now they are without Bashaud Breeland. Breeland is a very solid player and a key loss for this defense. Houston will take some shots downfield, and I think they'll have some success there. The Texans are likely to be behind throughout which would make them more aggressive and play faster. The weather conditions are expected to be nice here with very little wind. Look for both quarterbacks to have a big game and this to be a fun high scoring contest. Take the over.
09-10-20	Lakers v. Rockets UNDER 220.5		110-100	Win	100	19 h 59 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Houston Rockets and Los Angeles Lakers have played a very competitive series thus far. It really stands out to me that this series has been played at such a slow tempo compared to what we might have expected. The pace has gotten slower in each game in this series thus far. Overall for the series, the average number of possessions is at only 95. In the last two games combined, the average pace is 93.75 possessions. Last game alone, the pace was 91.5 possessions. The Lakers won last game by locking things down defensively in the second half. Los Angeles is likely to show up with strong defense from the start in this one. Houston is a better defensive team this year than many realize as well. Both of these teams shoot a lot of 3 pointers. These teams are 7th and 8th in the NBA at defending beyond the arc, so there aren't as many easy looks from long range as normal when these two meet. If the game is played at 95 possessions (the series average), the average points per possession would have to exceed 1.16 points per possession to get past this posted total. With the stars on these two teams it is certainly possible, but this line is several points too high. Take the under.
09-10-20	Royals v. Indians UNDER 8.5		11-1	Loss	-110	18 h 3 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Cleveland Indians start Aaron Civale here. Civale has great control. He walks only 1.5 batters per nine innings pitched. He also has more than 10% swinging strikes so far this year, which is a solid number. The Kansas City Royals haven't faced Civale yet, and I think that gives him the advantage against the light hitting Royals offense. Kansas City ranks 27th in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. This team has been decent against lefties, but they really struggle against right handed pitching. Cleveland ranks 22nd in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. Brady Singer is a highly touted right handed prospect for the Royals. Singer has had some difficulty in his last couple starts, but those were against the great White Sox lineup. The Indians haven't been very good offensively this season. The weather here is a plus as well. Cool temperatures in Cleveland with a wind blowing in at 12 or 13 mph through this game definitely is helpful to an under. Mike Estabrook is the umpire here and he ranks in the top ten umpires in baseball in percentage of pitches called a strike. A solid under umpire. Take the under.
09-09-20	Rockies v. Padres OVER 9		3-5	Loss	-100	17 h 53 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Colorado Rockies offense has heated up of late. The Rockies have scored 5 runs or more in six of their last seven games. The San Diego Padres have been one of the best offenses in baseball all season. San Diego is more than capable of putting up a huge number on their own. The Padres have scored 10 runs or more in seven games since August 17. Antonio Senzatela isn't a guy I trust. Senzatela allows far too much hard contact. The Rockies bullpen is running on fumes now after Chi Chi Gonzalez was torched and the bullpen had to be in for the whole game yesterday. Zach Davies doesn't get many swings and misses, and the Rockies offense has seen a lot of him. The Padres bullpen hasn't been nearly as good as it was expected to be this season. Alfonso Marquez is the home plate umpire here. He has called the smallest percentage of pitches a strikes of any umpire in the majors in the last few seasons. The over is 33-11 in his last 44 games behind the dish. Take the over.
09-07-20	Diamondbacks v. Giants UNDER 8		2-4	Win	100	18 h 0 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Zac Gallen has thrown at least 6 innings in each of his last seven starts. He hasn't allowed any more than 2 runs in any of those starts. In his last four starts combined, he has allowed a grand total of three runs. Gallen is an elite young pitcher and his stuff is tremendous. Kevin Gausman's slider is a tough pitch to hit and this Diamondbacks offense has really been scuffling of late. They are struggling to string together hits and they have been playing a lot of youngsters who are unproven in their lineup. Bill Miller is the home plate umpire and he is one of the best under umpires in the business. Miller's strikeout/walk ratio is the second highest in the majors in the last five years. He consistently is a strike caller. Take the under here.
09-05-20	Rockies v. Dodgers OVER 8.5		5-2	Loss	-105	20 h 54 m	Show
4 Star MLB Top Total of the Week The Colorado Rockies start German Marquez here. Marquez has allowed a .343 weighted on base average to the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup. Marquez has a 10.13 ERA and a 5.57 FIP in his last three starts, so he enters this game in bad form as well. The Dodgers lineup is a great one. They have been particularly good at home offensively. The depth of this lineup is tough for many pitchers to handle. Colorado's bullpen is a bottom ten bullpen in baseball, and the Dodgers could easily add on against this Rockies bullpen. Tony Gonsolin is due for some regression. He has a 0.51 ERA this year, but his xFIP is 4.11 and his SIERA is 4.08. Gonsolin is a good pitcher, but he isn't this good. The weather is a big factor here too. The game time temperature is expected to be 105 degrees. That's one of the hottest temperatures you will ever see in Los Angeles. The ball was carrying very well on Friday night at Dodger Stadium, and it will be even hotter for this one. Finally, Alfonso Marquez is the home plate umpire for this game. Marquez is a great over umpire. He has called the fewest strikes of any umpire in the majors in the last three years. The over is a whopping 33-10 in his last 43 games behind home plate. Take the over.
09-04-20	Nationals v. Braves OVER 8		1-7	Push	0	4 h 8 m	Show
3 Star Play Over Austin Voth enters this game with a ridiculous 14.90 ERA in his last three starts. He has a 7.79 FIP in those starts. Voth has allowed 16 runs in his last 9 and 2/3 innings pitched. He goes up against an Atlanta offense today that is 3rd in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. In his last start against Atlanta he allowed 9 hits and 5 runs in only 4 innings pitched. Tommy Milone starts here for the Atlanta Braves. Milone has a 7.90 ERA and a 7.09 FIP in his last three starts. He clearly comes into this one in very bad form as well. Washington hasn't hit right handers well this year, but they have torched lefties like Milone. Washington is second in the majors with a .374 wOBA against left handed pitching. This is a 7 inning contest which is why the total is lower than you would expect with these pitchers and lineups. The weather here is 90 degrees and wind blowing out 8-10 mph. That helps the over as well. Look for both starters to struggle. Take the over.
09-02-20	Thunder v. Rockets UNDER 219		102-104	Win	100	22 h 3 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder square off in game 7 on Wednesday night. Oklahoma City changed the way this series has gone by playing Lu Dort more often. Dort is a really good defender, and he's really bad offensively. He makes his opponent work very hard to get good looks. At the same time, teams will cheat off him on the other end. Houston has shown a long history of struggling in close out games under Mike D'Antoni and with James Harden on the floor. These games are lined high for a reason- clearly the Rockets can score in bunches and could light it up from long range, but they are up against an OKC team that ranked 3rd in the NBA in 3 point field goal percentage allowed. In Houston's last 28 playoff games that are game #5 through game #7 in the series- 22 of those games have gone under the total and 6 have gone over the total. There have been quite a few poor shooting contests in those, and the tempo has generally been slower. Oklahoma City can get bogged down on offense too much. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been disappointing on the offensive end down the stretch for the Thunder. We've seen in the playoffs that the later in the series it has gotten the referees have let them play more often. That would be a big benefit to the under in this one. Take the under here. Sharp money is moving this line down- I would play this down to 216.5. My number here was 214. Thanks and good luck.
09-01-20	Jazz v. Nuggets UNDER 219		78-80	Win	100	29 h 50 m	Show
4 Star Play Under I don't really want to have to play this game since I just lost the under in game six due to some unreal shooting by Murray and Mitchell and the teams overall, but I have to in this spot. This is a spot where I have made a lot of money through the years. Game 7- everything on the line for both teams. There is a lot of pressure on each side, and the pace usually slows down a bit. On average, the shooting percentages are usually a little lower as well. In the first six games of this series- the average pace has been 93.5 possessions per game. That is the slowest pace of any playoff series so far. Both teams have just been shooting lights out. These teams both averaged 1.12 points per possession in the regular season. They are averaging 1.25 points per possession and 1.21 points per possession in this series. In game six, they combined to shoot 36/72 from 3 point range. If the teams just shot their season average (1.12)- this total would come in around 209. If both teams shoot lights out again we'll lose this play, but there are too many long term systems and angles pointing toward an under here for me to pass it up. Look for both defenses to look a little better and the pace to be slow here. Take the under. My projection here was 213.5- so I would play this for a 4 star rating down to 217.5 and a 3 star rating at anything lower than that. Thanks and good luck.
08-30-20	Nuggets v. Jazz UNDER 220		119-107	Loss	-110	18 h 43 m	Show
3 Star NBA Jazz/Nuggets CASH The Utah Jazz and Denver Nuggets play in a huge game six battle on Sunday night. The Jazz have been automatic on offense for most of this series. How good have they been? Utah is averaging a whopping 1.274 points per possession in this series. In their three regular season games against Denver, they averaged 1.051 points per possession. The pace in this series has been very slow, but the shooting numbers have been so high it hasn't mattered. Denver did switch their defense to a more aggressive defense where they fight through screens in the second half of game five. That was their best defensive half yet against the Jazz pick and roll offense. This game is the biggest game of the season for both teams. We should get a lot of effort on defense from both teams. This total is the second highest total for a game played between these two in the last nine meetings. Closeout games typically have lower posted totals. Last game went over the total thanks to 10 points in the final 23 seconds of the game including a long banked in 3 by Mitchell which made Utah keep fouling and extending the game. The teams both hit 16 three pointers in that contest and it should have stayed under the total. If the shooters cool off at all or the defense picks up some, this is a lot of points for the pace this game will be played at. Take the under.
08-29-20	Orioles v. Blue Jays OVER 10.5		0-5	Loss	-100	7 h 34 m	Show
3 Star Play Over This game is being played in Buffalo at Sahlen Field. This park is playing as a major hitters park. It is rating as a similar park to Great American Ballpark and Yankee Stadium as far as park factor. Today, the wind is blowing out 12-14 mph for this game. We also have two starters who are questionable. Alex Cobb ranks in the bottom 10% in the majors in hard hit rate allowed. Taijuan Walker isn't getting many swinging strikes at all. Both of these offenses have been pretty good this season. In the last 30 days, the Blue Jays are 7th in the majors in weighted on base average. The Orioles are 13th. There have been some extremely high scoring games at Sahlen Field already this year. While this is a high posted total, I don't think it is quite high enough. Take the over.
08-29-20	Thunder v. Rockets UNDER 227.5		80-114	Win	100	16 h 22 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets meet in a pivotal game five matchup on Saturday evening. The Houston Rockets love to shoot 3 pointers. Houston is up against an OKC team that was third in the NBA in 3 point defense. The Thunder are making them shoot difficult shots in this series. Russell Westbrook will play for the first time in this series. Westbrook does give Houston another scoring option here, and that is why the total is up several points. At the same time, Westbrook grades as one of the better defenders for the Rockets and that is being overlooked. Both of these teams last played on Monday and that is generally a good thing for the under with a long layoff. This total is set at the same number as the first couple meetings in the regular season between these two teams. This game means a lot more than those games did and on the whole that is beneficial to the under. Take the under here.
08-28-20	Royals v. White Sox OVER 10		5-6	Win	100	8 h 57 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Chicago White Sox are easily first in the majors in weighted on base average. The White Sox have a .418 weighted on base average against lefties and the second best team in the majors has a .375 wOBA. Danny Duffy is a middle of the road lefty, and the White Sox lineup has a .349 OBP against him in his career. Reynaldo Lopez starts here for the White Sox. Lopez has potential, but has really pitched poorly last year and this year. This Royals lineup has hit him hard. The Royals lineup has a .432 weighted on base average against him in 150 plate appearances. It's a warm day in Chicago with the wind blowing out about 10-12 mph here, which is another help for the over. Take the over here.
08-27-20	Reds v. Brewers UNDER 6		6-1	Loss	-100	4 h 20 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Brewers and Reds meet in game one of the doubleheader here. This is a 7 inning game. Sonny Gray starts here for the Reds. Gray has allowed Brewers hitters to bat only .188 in 145 plate appearances. Gray has been tremendous so far this season. He is pitching deep into games as well. It's possible he'll pitch this entire game, or if not he could make it very close. Adrian Houser has drastic home/road splits for his career, and he is much better at home. Josh Hader got the day off yesterday with the postponed game so he might be available in this one. The Reds rank 26th in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Brewers rank 28th in the same statistic. These two teams are struggling at the plate right now. Take the under.
08-25-20	Canucks v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5		5-2	Win	100	20 h 8 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Golden Knights are an aggressive team that forces the issue with their speed. Vancouver's defense is less than stellar, and the Knights put up 5 goals on them in game one. The Canucks didn't contribute at all by being shut out in game one, but I think that should change here in game two. The two regular season meetings between these two both finished at 9 goals. These teams are offensive minded and another shutout is unlikely. Look for the fast paced action we saw in game one to repeat itself, but this time both teams contribute and get this one past the total. Take the over.
08-25-20	Red Sox v. Blue Jays OVER 11		9-7	Win	100	16 h 27 m	Show
3 Star Play Over This one is played at Buffalo's Sahlen Field. This field is playing extremely small. The wind here is blowing out at about 10 mph, and we have very questionable pitching. Kyle Hart was torched in his first start. He then looked some better in his second start, but he still didn't even complete 4 innings. The Boston Red Sox bullpen is a major weakness this year, and seeing them for a long time could help the over as well. Toronto has a .377 wOBA at home so far this year. The Blue Jays have a very strong #1-#6 in the lineup. Boston has allowed 9 runs or more in 5 of their last 12 games. Toronto's games in Buffalo this year have been extremely high scoring. This total is high, but it is high for a very good reason. Take the over.
08-24-20	Twins v. Indians UNDER 8.5		3-2	Win	102	18 h 6 m	Show
3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER Kenta Maeda is a really good pitcher. I think the Dodgers didn't get enough out of him with their pitching coaches in the last few years. Minnesota is a really well coached staff, and the Twins have changed Maeda's pitching strategy a bit this year. It is working extremely well. Maeda has a 2.27 ERA and a 2.46 FIP. He hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in a start this year. Maeda has walked only six batters in five starts this season. Aaron Civale has been tremendous this year as well. His control is as good as anyone right now. Civale is walking less than one batter per nine innings. He has a 2.91 ERA and a 2.69 FIP on the year. The Indians and Twins both have top five bullpens in the majors. The offenses here have been inconsistent at best. The under is 6-0 in the Twins last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in the Twins last 5 games with a total of 8.5 or lower. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 games between these two teams. A 15-0 angle. Take the under.
08-24-20	Rockets v. Thunder UNDER 220		114-117	Loss	-110	14 h 16 m	Show
3 Star NBA Play of the Day The Oklahoma City Thunder got Luguentz Dort back before game two, and with Dort back in the lineup they have been able to put together a much better defensive plan against this Houston Rockets offense. With Dort as the primary defender, James Harden was 3/14 in game three. Dort rates out as the Thunder's best defensive player and their worst offensive player in the last couple games. He'll get a lot of minutes here because of how good he has done on Harden. Minutes for Dort are a positive for the under. Clearly, Harden could have a big game at any point, but Dort is at least making him work very hard. The average pace of 98.58 possessions in this series is pretty slow. It would take some very efficient offense to get above this total if the pace stays the same here. The last two games have finished at 209 points and then 208 points in regulation. I see this total as being inflated. Take the under.
08-23-20	Angels v. A's UNDER 9		4-5	Push	0	14 h 32 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Angels send Dylan Bundy to the mound here. Bundy has one bad start this year (his last one), but overall he has been tremendous. Bundy has already pitched against the Oakland Athletics twice and he has gone 13 and 2/3 innings and allowed one run while walking only one batter and striking out 17. Frankie Montas has one bad start this year as well (his last one). Overall, Montas has been solid. He has a great fastball and that can give hitters a hard time. The Oakland lineup has only a .299 weighted on base average against Bundy. The Angels lineup has only a .298 wOBA against Montas. This is a park where the park factor is in the botton 3 or 4 of the majors every year. It's a strong pitcher's park. Take the under.
08-21-20	Diamondbacks v. Giants OVER 9		2-6	Loss	-115	20 h 56 m	Show
4 Star Play Over Oracle Park has been an absolute launching pad so far this year. This is a stadium that ranked dead last in park factor last year, but is in the top five in that statistic so far this year. In the last 10 games played at Oracle, there hasn't been a game that has finished lower than 9 runs. Many of them have been far higher. Five of the last ten have finished with at least 13 runs scored. The Giants offense has been better than expected so far this year. San Francisco is much better against lefties than righties, and they'll face a questionable lefty here in Robbie Ray. Logan Webb has potential, but he hasn't pitched deep into games through his career, and this Giants bullpen may be the worst in baseball this year. Robbie Ray has an 8.59 ERA and a 7.69 FIP through five starts. He is walking nearly one batter per inning. He once again is giving up a lot of long balls as well. Take the over here.
08-21-20	Reds v. Cardinals OVER 8.5		4-2	Loss	-115	19 h 47 m	Show
4 Star Play Over Anthony DeSclafani was tipping his pitches in his last start and he was absolutely lit up. He will try to correct that here, but his past history against the Cardinals isn't good at all. This Cardinals lineup has a whopping .385 weighted on base average against Disco in 165 plate appearances. Dakota Hudson has been getting hit extremely hard this year. The average exit velocity he has given up this year is more than 94 mph (in the bottom 2% of all pitchers in baseball). Hudson has poor control and gives up a lot of hard contact. It's a really bad combination. The Reds hitters have a .393 wOBA against Hudson. This is a low total for two pitchers with a lot of question marks. The Cardinals offense has struggled against lefties, but they have been solid against righties. The Reds lineup is much better now with Moustakas healthy once again. Take the over.
08-21-20	Phillies v. Braves UNDER 8.5		2-11	Loss	-110	17 h 6 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Atlanta Braves lineup isn't even close to what it was a week or two ago. They are missing Acuna, Markakis, and Albies. Those are some really important bats in this lineup. Aaron Nola has been dealing this year. Nola has a 2.05 ERA with a 2.27 FIP and a 1.91 xFIP. It hasn't been luck. Nola has an amazing 14.8% swinging strike rate so far this year. He has been pitching deep into games as well, and that has been thanks to his excellent control. Max Fried has been in great form as well. Fried has a 1.24 ERA and a 2.35 FIP. Fried is allowing far less hard contact so far this year, which is a great sign. The Phillies offense has been very good this year, but I do see them as due for some regression. This offense isn't a top five offense in the majors like they have looked so far this year. The weather conditions are moderate in Atlanta now which is a positive as well. Take the under.
08-20-20	Angels v. Giants OVER 9		5-10	Win	100	11 h 41 m	Show
3 Star Play Over Oracle Park is playing far differently this year than it has in previous seasons. Last year this park ranked dead last in park factor. This year it ranks fifth! The ball is flying out of here far more often than in the past. Jose Suarez has a lot to prove as a major league starter. Suarez was a guy with a lot of hype, but he hasn't produced. Suarez threw 81 innings in the big leagues last year. He finished with a 7.11 ERA and a 6.72 FIP. Suarez had a 4.85 FIP and a 5.77 xFIP in Triple A as well. His command is poor and he gives up a lot of really hard contact. Kevin Gausman has thrown the ball pretty well this year, but the Angels are good against right handed pitching. Gausman also doesn't pitch very deep into games, and the Giants bullpen is dead last in the majors in xFIP and SIERA. This bullpen has been crushed many times. The Giants offense is far better against lefties than righties so they are in a favorable split here. The Angels have a bottom ten bullpen as well and Suarez doesn't pitch deep into games at all either. Take the over here.
08-19-20	Jazz v. Nuggets UNDER 217.5		124-105	Loss	-105	13 h 57 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Denver Nuggets ranked as the second slowest paced team in the regular season. Denver slows things down and grinds the game into a half court contest. Utah ranked 24th in the NBA in tempo as well, so they prefer to play slowly. In game one between these two, the pace was only 96.45 possessions. Both teams shot the ball extremely well. Mitchell absolutely went off for the Jazz. The Nuggets backups shot the ball very well. There are a bunch of key offensive players out for both teams here. For the Jazz- Conley and Bogdonavic are key pieces. For the Nuggets- Harris and Barton are both important pieces. In the regular season these teams met three times. None of those three meetings saw a regulation score finishing higher than 210 points. The total here has been adjusted upward by 3 points from game one. The Nuggets shot 54% from long range in game one and Mitchell had 57 points for the Jazz in game one. I'll bet on regression to the mean. Take the under.
08-19-20	Nets v. Raptors UNDER 226.5		99-104	Win	100	10 h 27 m	Show
4 Star NBA Early Bird Special The Toronto Raptors won 134-110 over the Brooklyn Nets in game one of the series. That has led this total to jump all the way to 226.5. A five point adjustment is really extreme. Toronto averaged 1.327 points per possession in game one. Brooklyn averaged 1.078 points per possession. These two teams met four times in the regular season. The highest posted total was 224.5 (the others were all 218.5 or lower). In the four regular season meetings the Raptors averaged 1.089 points per possession while the Nets averaged 1.047 points per possession. Three of the four games went under this total and two of them went under by a large amount. The Raptors are elite on defense. The Nets aren't terrible on defense either, and they should do a better job guarding Fred Van Vleet in this one. Toronto made 22/44 from 3 point range in game one. The fact they got ahead by so much early in the game made the overall pace of the game speed up. This is a big adjustment and I have to bet the under here. Playoff games mean a lot to professionals and I would expect stronger efforts on defense. Take the under.
08-17-20	Tigers v. White Sox OVER 9.5		2-7	Loss	-103	19 h 4 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Chicago White Sox slugged 4 home runs in a row yesterday, and this offense appears ready to break out. Chicago is much better with Tim Anderson leading off, and he was injured for a while. He's back now and he is a great table setter for this team. Jose Abreu and Eloy Jimenez are both healthy now as well. There is a lot of power in the middle of this lineup. The Detroit Tigers rank 2nd in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The Tigers have a very right handed heavy lineup that should be able to continue to have success against southpaws. Detroit can't hit righties, but Gio Gonzalez is a subpar lefty who is near the end of his career. Matt Boyd has allowed a .381 wOBA to the White Sox. Boyd comes into this game in terrible form. He has yet to pitch more than 5 innings in a game this year. He has allowed 4 runs or more in every game. Boyd has allowed 7 runs in each of his last two starts (one against the White Sox). Take the over in this one.