*3 Star Play Under* Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire in this game. Eddings has the highest called strike percentage of any home plate umpire in the majors in the last five years. He consistently rings up batters and is a very good under umpire.

Dylan Cease has one problem and that is his control. Cease is averaging 12 strikeouts per nine innings and he has multiple very good pitches. Eddings should help his control problems at least some here.

Kevin Gausman has a .458 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) allowed in his last three starts. Gausman has a fantastic 16.0% swinging strike rate on the year and a 1.75 FIP. He is still a very good pitcher.

The White Sox are 1st in the majors in wOBA against lefties and 28th against righties. The Blue Jays have a .352 wOBA as a team against lefties, but their wOBA is .323 against righties.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Orioles start Dean Kremer in this one. Kremer has been hit around hard in his time in the big leagues. He had 7.55 ERA and a 6.99 FIP last season. Kremer walks a lot of guys and gives up a lot of hard contact. Until he proves capable of consistently staying out of big innings, I don't trust him against major league lineups.

Shane Baz is an above average prospect for the Rays, but he doesn't usually pitch very deep into games. The Rays middle relief is weaker this year than it has been in recent seasons.

Baltimore's offense has been much better of late, and their bullpen has been absolutely dreadful in recent weeks. 

The Orioles have played nine straight games that have gotten to at least 9 runs total. Seven of the nine have reached at least 11 runs.

A hot night in Baltimore (nearly 90 degrees) should mean the ball is flying well. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Orioles send Dean Kremer to the mound on Sunday. Kremer has been terrible in the big leagues. Kremer has a career 7.84 ERA and a ridiculously high 1.807 WHIP. 

Brad Keller goes to the mound for the Royals. Keller has been much worse in the first half of the season in his career. Keller has a 6.31 ERA and a 4.96 FIP in his last six starts. He is striking out only 4.54 batters per nine innings during that time.

The Royals bullpen has the single worst SIERA in the majors in the past month. The Orioles rank below average in the bullpen in the last month.

Both offenses have shown some life of late. The temperature for this game is expected to be 91 degrees, so the ball should be flying well in Kansas City.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Detroit Tigers rank dead last in the majors in wRC+ against right handed pitching. Detroit is a terrible offense against right handed pitching, and Ross Stripling is a decent starting pitcher. Stripling has bounced around in the majors, but he has shown the ability to throw strikes consistently and limit big innings.

Tarik Skubal is an excellent young pitcher. Skubal is averaging just 1.37 walks per nine innings. He is also getting hitters to chase at an increased rate. Skubal has a stellar 2.33 ERA and a 2.10 FIP on the season. In his last seven starts, he hasn't allowed more than three runs in any game. He has allowed zero runs in four of those seven starts. 

The Blue Jays lineup is very good and they are capable of scoring here, but Skubal doesn't give up many home runs and he has superb control. They will have to earn it.

The Tigers bullpen has quietly been excellent this year. They have the second best bullpen ERA in baseball. Toronto's bullpen is middle of the road, but they are against a really weak lineup.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Dodgers rank first in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. This is a tremendous lineup with depth and power that is tough to match. The Dodgers offense hasn't been great of late, but I expect them to break out of this mini slump very soon.

The New York Mets lineup is above average as well. Lindor hitting the ball really well has taken pressure off the stars around him this year.

Trevor Williams has had a good season thus far, but his career stats suggest he is likely to regress at any moment now. Williams has a 5.46 ERA, his worst of any month of the season, in the month of June in his career. 

Julio Urias has worse advanced metrics this year than he has had the last couple seasons. He's still a good pitcher, but his whiff rate being way down is a bit concerning for him.

The weather here is warm with a temperature of about 82 degrees and the winds are blowing out at about 10 mph.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Logan Webb and Pablo Lopez are two really underrated starting pitchers. Webb is a strike thrower who isn't going to give up many big innings thanks to his control and suppressing hard contact when it comes to batted balls. 

Pablo Lopez has been tremendous at home in his career. Lopez has a 2.89 career ERA at home and a .277 wOBA allowed. He has been much better in the first half of the season than the second half (3.26 ERA compared to 4.78 in the second half). Lopez has started 10 games this year, and he has allowed 1 run or less in 7 of those 10 starts.

Bill Miller is the umpire behind home plate here, and he is one of the two best under umpires in baseball. Miller consistently has a very high strikeout/walk ratio and has a very high strikes called percentage. He should help both pitchers quite a bit here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Brewers aren't a very good offense to start with and they are without Omar Narvaez and Wily Adames right now. Milwaukee has scored 3 runs or fewer in 7 of their last 13 games. Joe Musgrove is throwing the ball really well right now. He has a chase rate that ranks in the 94th percentile in the majors which is way up from last year. His consistency this year has been tremendous.

The San Diego Padres offense has been struggling of late. The Padres have scored 3 runs or fewer in 7 of their last 9 games. San Diego typically walks a lot and relies on walks to get innings started. They rank 4th in the majors in walk percentage. Corbin Burnes is an elite pitcher and he doesn't walk people. Burnes has walked just 11 batters all season thus far. Burnes comes into this game in great form.

Both bullpens are well rested with their top relievers ready to go in this one.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cleveland Guardians rank last in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching (30th). Cleveland has actually been very good against right handed pitching though. The Guardians rank 7th in wOBA against right handed pitching.

Jonathan Heasley isn't a good starting pitcher at this point in his career. The Royals youngster has walked 13 batters in his first three starts this year. He has struck out only 7 batters. His ERA at Triple A in six starts this year was only a mediocre 4.44.

Zach Plesac has really struggled this year for Cleveland. Plesac has a 5.40 ERA and a 5.06 FIP on the season. 

Kansas City has scored 5 runs or more in five of their last seven games. Whit Merrifield is finally getting going, and Bobby Witt. Jr has been fantastic in his rookie season.

The weather here is important too. The game time temperature is expected to be in the upper 80's with winds blowing out at about 10 mph. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Game 7 in Miami- it all comes down to this. The winner of this game goes to the NBA Finals. The loser of this game heads home thinking about what could have been. 

The Boston Celtics are the best defensive team in the NBA. Boston wasn't good enough defensively against Jimmy Butler in Game 6, but I expect them to make things a lot tougher on him in Game 7. Overall, Miami has really had to work very hard to get open shots in this series, and their backcourt of Lowry and Strus hasn't been good enough on offense.

The Celtics offense is inconsistent. The Miami Heat are capable of playing excellent defense with guys like PJ Tucker locking down on the perimeter. Butler is a good defensive player as well. 

The pace of the game should slow quite a bit with everything on the line. We've seen strong trends toward unders in game 7's in recent decades in the NBA. Look for the two defenses to come with max effort. 

The Celtics were just involved in a very low scoring game 7 against Milwaukee. I'll back the under again here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* In 84 plate appearances against Corbin Burnes, this Cardinals lineup hasn't been very good. They have a 33.3% K rate and an expected batting average of just .207. 

Miles Mikolas has shut down the Brewers lineup. The Brewers have a .261 weighted on base average against Mikolas, and an expected batting average of just .247. 

Both Mikolas and Burnes are elite at not walking batters. Batters are likely to need to be swinging away in this one. Dan Bellino is a solid under umpire too and he is behind home plate for this contest. 

The Cardinals are elite against left handed pitching, but only mediocre against right handed pitching, and Burnes is one of the best. The Brewers lineup is a middle of the road lineup.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Detroit Tigers are awful against right handed pitching. Detroit is last in the majors in wRC+ against right handed pitching, and they are second to last in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. 

Detroit has scored more than 5 runs only once dating back to April 23. Detroit has scored no more than 4 runs in their last ten games. This is a bad offense that is prone to swinging and missing a lot. Triston McKenzie has multiple plus pitches and he is a tough matchup for them.

Elvin Rodriguez is a pretty good prospect for the Tigers. Rodriguez has a good curveball and pitching at Comerica should help him out.

The wind is expected to be blowing in 12 mph for this one.

Bill Miller is behind home plate here and he ranks second in the majors in strikes called percentage in the last five years. He's a very good under umpire with a high strikeout/walk ratio.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Brady Singer was a first round pick and I think Singer's upside is extremely high. Singer has thrown 16 innings in a row without giving up a run. Singer has walked just 3 batters in that period. Singer has a career high 11% swinging strike rate so far this year, and he has one of the best curveballs in baseball.

Chris Archer is an inconsistent pitcher, but Archer has been better of late and the Twins are not allowing him to go through the order a 3rd or 4th time very much since that has been his weakness in his career. 

Kansas City is without Salvador Perez who has been their most consistent hitter in recent years. The Royals lineup is below average. 

Minnesota's lineup was great last night, but had scored just 2 runs in three straight games before that. 

Adam Beck has a 3.42 strikeout/walk ratio so far this year which is extremely high. He's been a pitcher's umpire which boosts the under too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The St. Louis Cardinals rank first in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties, and it isn't close. The Cardinals have a .377 wOBA and the second best team in the majors has a .360 wOBA against lefties. With Goldschmitt and Arenado in the middle of the lineup, this team will continue to be good against left handed pitching.

Eric Lauer is having a good season, and I think he is a pretty good pitcher. I don't think he is as good as his 2.16 ERA this year suggests though. Lauer has faced a weak group of lineups for the year and his FIP is more than a run higher than his ERA. He now has to face the best lineup against left handed pitching.

Adam Wainwright has a 2.87 ERA and a 3.85 FIP and 4.11 xFIP. He is due for regression as well. Wainwright is a decent pitcher, but he is no longer an outstanding starter.

Josh Hader is away from the team and is doubtful for this one. That really hurts the Brewers bullpen. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oakland Athletics have had 12 games in which they scored one run or fewer in the last month. Oakland has a very high strikeout rate and Robbie Ray is a tough matchup when you are a team who swings and misses a lot.

The Seattle Mariners offense doesn't have the same upside without Mitch Haniger. Paul Blackburn has been dealing of late, and he goes up against a mediocre Seattle offense here.

Ray has been much better pitching at home. It isn't too surprising since Seattle is clearly a pitcher's park.

Paul Blackburn has a fantastic 1.91 ERA and a 2.30 FIP on the season. He's having a breakout season. He's allowed more than 2 runs only once this year. 

Mike Muchlinski is the home plate umpire here, and he is a strike caller. He should help both pitchers in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Chris Bassitt and Logan Webb are two of the more underrated starting pitchers in baseball. Bassitt has allowed one run or fewer in 5 of his 8 starts this season. He has good control and doesn't give up much hard contact. Webb has a 3.54 ERA and a 3.10 FIP on the season. Webb also has great career splits when pitching at home. He has a 3.13 ERA and a .290 wOBA allowed at home.

Roberto Ortiz is the home plate umpire for this game. Ortiz has become a really solid under umpire. The under is 26-9 in his last 35 games behind home plate. His strikeout/walk ratio suggests he is calling borderline pitches strikes on the regular especially on strike three. 

The Giants lineup has scored just 5 runs in their last three games overall. They are shorthanded right now. The Mets have been inconsistent on offense this year.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Mavericks and Golden State Warriors both shot the ball extremely well in Game Two. Golden State averaged 1.286 points per possession in that game. Dallas averaged 1.182 points per possession.

Last game being so high scoring has led to this total being moved up by a few points. In fact, the Warriors and Mavericks have faced off six times this year. This is the second highest posted total of the season in their matchups.

Remember, this is a playoff game that is an absolute must win for the Dallas Mavericks. For a posted total to be the second highest of six matchups between these two- that stands out to me. 

In the playoffs- Dallas has played much slower and played much better defense in their home games. The Mavericks are 5-1 to the under at home in the playoffs. 

At home in the playoffs their games are averaging just 91.42 possessions and they are allowing only 1.024 points per possession. On the road their games have averaged 94.33 possessions and they are allowing 1.184 points per possession.

Look for Dallas to slow things down some here. The Mavericks should be giving max effort on defense. 

Both of these teams do shoot the ball well and there is potential for them to light it up for 3, but with this being a must win for Dallas and the oddsmakers setting the line several points higher I like the value here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Boston Red Sox offense has finally woke up. Trevor Story is on fire now, and that is fueling this offense to bigger things. Boston has scored 39 runs in their last six games. 

Robbie Ray has been away for personal reasons, but is expected back for this start. Ray hasn't been very good this year. His velocity is down quite a bit, and his swinging strike rate is down from a year ago. 

Michael Wacha starts for the Red Sox. He's coming off the injured list for this one. Wacha hasn't been good in recent seasons, and I don't put too much faith into him being a lot better just because of 5 good starts this year. He has a 1.38 ERA with a 3.90 FIP and a 4.23 xFIP so he is definitely due for regression.

I think the Seattle offense has some guys who will hit better in the long run. Jesse Winker is a good hitter who hasn't been very good this year. Rodriguez is a really talented youngster who I expect to pick up his level as well.

The wind is blowing out about 10 mph at Fenway which is a nice boost.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Apparently Carlos Hernandez needs some time to get warmed up. In his career, he has a 7.26 ERA with a terrible .388 weighted on base average allowed in the first half of the season. In the second half, he has a solid 3.55 ERA and a .299 wOBA. Hernandez is off to a terrible start this year. He has more walks than strikeouts on the season, and his ERA is above 9.

Vince Velasquez has never been a very good pitcher, but his biggest problem has always been his inability to keep the ball in the ballpark. Velasquez is allowing 1.95 home runs per nine innings this year. The advanced metrics show that Velasquez has given up the highest percentage of hard hit batted balls this year that he has at any point in his career. 

The weather here calls for mid 80's with wind blowing out at about 15 mph. The ball will be flying well. With both of these pitchers given up hard contact and having a lot of traffic on the bases consistently, there could be some big innings in this one.

Alfonso Marquez is the home plate umpire and in the long run he has been one of the best over umpires in the majors.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Mets start Max Scherzer here. Scherzer has been really good against everyone in his career, but he has absolutely dominated this St. Louis Cardinals lineup. In 194 plate appearances, the Cardinals lineup has a .156 batting average and a .191 wOBA against Scherzer. They have 9 walks and 66 strikeouts against Scherzer. He is still one of the best pitchers in baseball and I would expect a strong performance from him here.

Jordan Hicks has the stuff to be a high quality pitcher, and the Mets are without Starling Marte and Brandon Nimmo is questionable for this one. The Cardinals have a deep bullpen and the Mets are a streaky offense.

I think the pitching will have the upper hand in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Spenser Watkins gets the start at home against the New York Yankees in this one. Watkins is a guy with a lot of potential, but he is really struggling thus far in his young big league career. 

Watkins has a swinging strike rate of only 7.7%. He has 12 walks and 13 strikeouts on the season thus far. His xERA is in the 6th percentile of all pitchers. His average exit velocity allowed is in the 15th percentile. Watkins is giving up a lot of home runs. He also has a career ERA of 8.36 when pitching at home. Watkins is allowing opposing hitters to have a .449 wOBA at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. 

The Yankees offense has woke up in a big way of late. The Yankees have scored 49 runs in their last six games! They should get to Watkins in this one. The Orioles bullpen that was excellent early in the season has really struggled in the last few weeks as well.

Jameson Taillon is a good pitcher, but he is due for a little regression. Taillon has a 2.93 ERA with a 3.25 FIP and 3.65 xFIP. The Orioles do have some power and this is a hitters park.

The umpire here is Torres and he is an over umpire. His strikeout/walk ratio has been extremely low the last couple seasons.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Bucks travel to Boston to take on the Boston Celtics in Game 7 of the hotly contested Eastern Conference Semifinals series. This has been a fantastic series with great drama and some high levels of play by each team.

It's win or go home time for both teams. These win or go home games have consistently been played at a slower pace. Why? This game means everything and teams are far more likely to slow things down and try to avoid the ridiculous turnovers. These games also bring max effort on the defensive end.

Boston and Milwaukee are arguably the two best defensive teams in the NBA. They are at least both top five defenses in the NBA. There is a ton of length on the floor in this game, and I would expect a lot of contested shots.

Could they be hitting tough jumpers? Of course it is possible, but I like the chances of the under hitting in this situation.

Four of the six games in this series so far have finished at 204 points or lower. This one is the most important game yet.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* George Kirby has been a top 25 or 30 prospect in all of baseball. Kirby has a fastball that runs up to 98 or 99 mph. He also has some of the best control you will ever see. His ability to put the ball right where he wants it and not walk hardly anyone has impressed scouts for years. Kirby should have a bright future in the majors.

Chris Bassitt is an underrated starting pitcher. He has good command and does a good job limiting hard contact. His highest FIP in the last three years has been 3.59, so he is clearly an above average pitcher.

The Mariners have been really struggling on offense of late. Mitch Haniger is a key cog for this offense, and without him they haven't looked good. Seattle has now scored 2 runs or less in seven of their last ten games.

Adam Hamari is the home plate umpire here and he carries a high strikeout walk ratio consistently, and is a top ten under umpire in the majors.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Royals rank second to last in the majors in weighted on base average. Kansas City also ranks second to last in the majors in ISO. The Royals haven't been able to string hits together very often this year.

The Colorado Rockies offense is good at home as they always are, but they are shorthanded without Kris Bryant and this isn't an elite offense like it was a few years ago.

Zack Greinke has a solid ERA of 4.01 at Coors Field in his career. Greinke isn't the pitcher he was a few years ago, but he is still at worst an average starting pitcher. The Royals bullpen has major positive regression signs due to bad batted ball luck so far this season.

Kyle Freeland has been solid all year, and he has learned how to pitch at Coors Field in recent seasons.

Even at Coors, this is a high total for two offenses that are shorthanded and a game with two pretty good starting pitchers.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Dallas trails 3-2 in this series, so the Mavericks have to win this one to extend the series to a 7th game. The Mavericks won the first two meetings at home partially by slowing the tempo down. I expect Dallas to slow the pace down again here. The Mavericks have been better late in the season on the defensive end on their home court as well.

The pace in the last three games of this series has been an average of 92.5 possessions per game. If the teams average 1.14 points per possession (above average offensive efficiency), the game would finish at 211 points. 

Later in the series these games usually slow down. It is win or go home time and that usually brings about a slower pace and stronger defense. 

Dallas has the blueprint for winning against Phoenix. Can they do it again here? I don't know, but I do think they can set the pace enough to keep this below the total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Reds have been an over machine of late. The over is 8-0-1 in their last 9 games. Their offense has been better, and their pitching staff is absolutely horrendous. 

Vladimir Gutierrez may be the worst pitcher on the Reds roster, and he is the starting pitcher here. Gutierrez has 17 walks and only 13 strikeouts on the season thus far. He has an 8.86 ERA and a 7.53 FIP. Gutierrez has really ugly numbers at Great American Ballpark in his career, and I don't see a reason to think he gets on track here.

Adrian Houser has been decent so far this year, but he does have ugly numbers against this Reds lineup. Houser has allowed a .394 batting average and a .461 wOBA against this Cincinnati lineup. 

Mark Wegner is the home plate umpire here and he is a top five over umpire in the majors. Wegner consistently has a low strikeout/walk ratio.

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oakland A's have scored 3 runs or fewer in 12 of their last 15 games. The Detroit Tigers have been shut out in back to back games, and they haven't scored more than 2 runs in any of their last five games. 

These two teams rank second to last and last in the majors in weighted on base average this year. The A's are slightly better against lefties than righties, but they are still only 24th out of 30 teams in wOBA. Detroit is 29th out of 30 in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching.

Tarik Skubal has tremendous control. Skubal is averaging just 1.01 walks per nine innings so far this year. He has a 3.04 ERA and a fantastic 2.21 FIP. 

Frankie Montas has a 3.44 ERA and a 3.29 FIP on the season. Montas has allowed 2 runs or less in four of his last five starts.

The wind is forecast to be blowing in at about 12 mph during this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Baseball is a streaky sport. Offenses can go on streaks or stay in slumps for a good while through the course of the season. In the last 14 days, Detroit ranks 28th out of 30 teams in the majors in weighted on base average. Oakland ranks dead last at 30th. 

The truth is these two offenses aren't good in general though, and that is especially true against right handed pitching. Where do they rank in the majors against right handed pitching so far this year? Detroit once again ranks 28th and Oakland is dead last at 30th. These two offenses are much better against lefties, but there are two right handed starters on the mound for this one.

Paul Blackburn has had a very strong year so far this year. He does a good job throwing strikes and staying ahead of hitters. Blackburn also does a good job limiting home runs.

Michael Pineda still has good stuff. He isn't terribly consistent, but the Oakland bats have scored 1 run or fewer in six of their last ten games. 

In this one- the wind is forecast to be blowing in from center field at about 12-15 mph during this game. A nice bonus.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This Oakland A's offense is really bad. Oakland has a .197 batting average against right handed pitching this year. Oakland has scored 1 run or fewer in six of their last nine games. The A's are up against a solid right handed pitcher here in Chris Paddack. 

Paddack has a good 3.15 ERA this year and an amazing 1.93 FIP in his four starts. He isn't likely to be hit very much by this Oakland offense. He's always had elite control, and he is averaging less than one walk per nine innings this year. 

Daulton Jeffries is a middle of the road pitcher, but he has some upside. Also, the Minnesota Twins lineup is very injured right now. Carlos Correa is doubtful for this game. Byron Buxton left yesterday's game due to a minor injury and he is questionable at best for this game. Minnesota doesn't have much lineup depth overall.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* I was hoping to get a 7 on this total, but the string of unders in Major League Baseball this year has led to this one being at 6.5. I'm still going to recommend a smaller (regular 3 star rated play) play on this one. 

The splits here set up very nicely. Sean Manaea is a high quality lefty, and the Marlins have a .198 batting average against lefties so far this year. They are a bottom five offense in baseball against left handed pitching.

San Diego has been really good against lefties, but they are subpar against right handed pitching. Pablo Lopez is a quality right handed pitcher. Lopez has a 1.29 ERA and a stellar 2.06 FIP on the season. 

These two offenses are at a disadvantage against the starters, and the bullpens are above average as well. This game is played at a very pitcher-friendly park.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Mavericks come home to take on the Phoenix Suns in game of this series. Phoenix leads 2-0 after they destroyed Dallas in the fourth quarter of game two. 

While Luka Doncic has been great on offense his defense has been exposed here. I do think Jason Kidd is a good coach, and I expect Dallas to have a better defensive game plan for game three. They'll try to hide Doncic on defense when they can. 

Phoenix is a very good offensive team, but they aren't this good. The Suns are averaging an insane 1.35 points per possession in this series. They shot a little over 64% from the floor in game two. The first two games of this series have gone over the total easily. 

In the regular season, all three meetings between these two teams stayed under this total. Dallas is likely to want to slow the tempo down more in this game (the Mavericks had a bottom five tempo rating this year). 

This game now has a higher posted total than any of the regular season games between these two teams. Playoff games mean more and they are usually totaled much lower than regular season games. I think there is some recency bias in this number.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Toronto Blue Jays start Alex Manoah in this one and he has been tremendous both so far this year and in his career in the first half of the season. Manoah has allowed just 4 runs in 25 innings pitched this year. He has a career 2.34 ERA in the first half of the season. 

Manoah has also been dominant when pitching at home so far in his young career. He has a 2.14 ERA and an amazing .155 batting average allowed at home. 

Jameson Taillon has been throwing the ball well for the Yankees so far this year. He has a 3.26 ERA and a 3.42 xFIP. Taillon has only walked two batters in his four starts so far this year.

Ron Kulpa is the home plate umpire in this one, and Kulpa has been consistently one of the four or five best under umpires in baseball. He had a stunning 3.55 strikeout/walk ratio last year which was the second highest in all of baseball. He should help both pitchers in this game.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Detroit Tigers have scored 2 runs or less in 7 of their last 11 games. Detroit has scored 3 runs or less in 9 of their last 11 games. This Tigers offense is struggling in a big way right now. 

Clayton Kershaw hasn't walked a batter so far this year. Kershaw has 23 strikeouts, and he carries an impressive 2.65 ERA with a fantastic 2.07 FIP. Kershaw is throwing a lot more sliders this year, and the results have been fantastic. 

The Dodgers offense is very good. There is no denying that fact. The Dodgers do rank 4th in wOBA against right handed pitching and 19th against lefties. They face a young lefty in Brieske here.

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire, and he is one of the best under umpires in baseball. Every single year he ranks near the top or at the top in strikes called percentage as well as strikeouts/walks. He should help both pitchers in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Toronto Raptors have a really good head coach in Nick Nurse. Nurse is known for two things- 1. His adjustments throughout a series and even in a game- 2. His defensive mindset and the unique defenses he puts together. Toronto has played much better defense in games 3-5 against the 76ers. 

Joel Embiid is hurting and that overall should hurt his offense more than his defense as well. The 76ers have been slowed down quite a bit of late too with Tyrese Maxey being shut down by the Raptors in recent games. 

Toronto has been much better at home on defense in general, and they will look to dictate the tempo and slow the game down here. 

As we get deeper into the series throughout the NBA in the playoffs, we typically see a slowdown in tempo and high intensity on defense. This is an elimination game and if Toronto wins this could be all the way back to 3-3. I think both teams show up with quality defense here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Chicago Cubs start Mark Leiter Jr. here. Leiter Jr. doesn't seem to have good enough stuff to be effective in the majors. He has struggled badly in the majors with his command every time he has been called up. Leiter has major problems with the long ball also- and that has been the case in quite a few of his years in the minors as well. He's the type of guy who can really give up big innings in a hurry.

Charlie Morton is nearing the end of his career. Morton has had a great last few years, but there are quite a few signs that he is slowing down. His 6.32 ERA and 5.49 FIP this year are a really bad start. He looked good against the Reds (everyone has), but he has been in trouble early and often in his other two starts.

Alfonso Marquez has some of the lowest called strike percentages of any umpire in the last few seasons. He is clearly an over umpire, and he is at it again this year with a ridiculously low strikeout/walk ratio of 1.79.

The Cubs are first in the majors in wOBA this year and the Braves are 10th. Two good offenses and a total that is set too low.

Take the over.  

*3 Star Play Under* Both Triston McKenzie and Patrick Sandoval have excellent stuff. They both have multiple strikeout pitches. They both have the same problem- they can struggle with walks sometimes.

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire for this game. Miller is one of the two best under umpires in all of baseball. Year after year his strikes called percentage and strikeout/walk ratio show how he is a great strike caller.

Miller should help both of these youngsters by giving them the corners much more than the average umpire would.

The Guardians offense isn't as good as their season numbers would suggest. They are due for regression in batted ball luck.

The Angels do have several guys who are free swingers and McKenzie can take advantage of that.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This series is all tied up at 2-2. Game five in Memphis is a huge game. The Timberwolves have played the Grizzlies tough all season. 

Last game the final was 119-118. In that game, the two teams combined to shoot 33/68 (48.5%) from 3 point range. There were also 65 free throws in the game. Even with those numbers, the game edged over this total. 

As the games get more important the totals tend to on average get a little lower. If both teams shoot lights out here then this selection will lose, but if we see shooting numbers like their season averages I like this game to stay under. 

The pace of the game has been slower the last couple games in this series. As the series gets even more important the game is likely to slow down a little more.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox both have top five offenses in baseball. 

Jose Berrios starts for the Blue Jays and he has been very shaky this year. In his two starts he has an 11.81 ERA and an 11.86 FIP. Berrios has walked five batters in 5.1 innings and he has allowed 3 home runs. 

Nick Pivetta has a 3.91 ERA in day games in his career, but his night game ERA is an ugly 5.93. He has a WHIP of 1.492 in night games. Pivetta has a 5.49 ERA in 17 starts at Fenway Park. He has an ERA of 9.53 and a FIP of 8.53 through two games.

I think both starters have blowup potential here and with the total dropping to 9, I'm on the over.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers beat the Toronto Raptors 131-111 on Saturday night in game one. The pace of that game was 90 possessions. That was the slowest paced game of the playoff contests on Saturday. The 76ers averaged an insane 1.472 points per possession in that game. That is almost unheard of in the NBA- especially in the playoffs. Toronto shot the ball extremely well and averaged 1.22 points per possession. They still lost by 20 points. 

These two teams were in the 1.13-1.14 range in points per possession in the regular season. Harden has made the 76ers offense better, but it isn't as good as they looked on Saturday. The 76ers had one turnover with 8 minutes left in the fourth quarter. The shooting numbers should regress. 

The first game had a total of 215.5. We are getting 5 points higher on the line because of the insane efficiency numbers on offense in game one. At a pace of 90 possessions, the two teams could average 1.20 points per possession (above average) and the total points would finish at 216. 

I have to bet the under and hope the regression comes in game two. They can't be that good on offense the whole series. They are giving us 5 more points here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Colorado Rockies lineup is a pretty good lineup, but they aren't exactly the mashing crew that they were a few years ago. The Chicago Cubs are the same way. These are middle of the road lineups with a posted total of 11 runs.

Ron Kulpa is the home plate umpire here. Kulpa had an extremely high 3.55 strikeout/walk ratio last year. He ranks top 8 in the majors in strikes called percentage in the last four seasons overall. He's a solid under umpire.

Austin Gomber has pitched in ten games at Coors Field in his career and he has a sparkling 2.03 ERA and a WHIP of just 0.956. That is likely to regress some, but he has done a great job in this hitter friendly park and seems to have somewhat of an edge.

The weather here calls for a slight breeze blowing in from left field.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The gametime temperature for this one at Progressive Field in Cleveland is expected to be 36 degrees with a 10 mph wind blowing straight in from center field. Cleveland is a ballpark that is changed by the winds and weather more than most people realize. The ball shouldn't be carrying well here on Sunday.

Alex Wood is certainly an above average lefty. I don't think the Guardians lineup is very good in general, and I think they will be a little worse against left handed pitching.

Aaron Civale does a good job limiting hard contact, and that should help quite a bit especially in these conditions.

We have two bullpens who are clearly better than the average bullpen in the majors. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Marlins have an underrated pitching staff. Miami is likely to have quite a few low scoring games this year, especially at home in a park where it is at least somewhat pitcher friendly.

Philadelphia starts Ranger Suarez here, and though he had a disappointing first start to the season, there are a lot of very sharp pitching analysts who think he has a high upside. Suarez has multiple plus pitches and is capable of generating a lot of swings and misses.

Trevor Rogers is a very good young lefty for the Marlins. Rogers had a ridiculously high swinging strike rate of 14.0% last year, and he also doesn't allow much hard contact. 

Jeremie Rehak is the umpire at home plate here and his strikes called percentage and strikeout/walk numbers show from the last few years show him as a very good under umpire.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Tanner Houck starts for the Boston Red Sox here. Houck was excellent last year with an 11.35 strikeout per nine inning rate. He has made several mechanical tweaks and has really shown his real potential. Many in the Red Sox organization expect him to have a breakout year this year. He is a former first round draft pick. 

Jordan Montgomery is often underrated. Montgomery does a good job inducing soft contact and that can really help him against quality lineups like Boston. Montgomery has a career 3.72 ERA against Boston. 

The Yankees bullpen is a top 3 bullpen in baseball. The Red Sox bullpen is a top ten bullpen in baseball.

The conditions will be cold for this one and the ball shouldn't be carrying too well. 

Home plate umpire here is Tripp Gibson who is a top five under umpire in baseball. Both pitchers will be helped by his generous strike zone.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Orioles have what might be the worst bullpen in all of baseball. Baltimore traded away their one really solid bullpen arm in Cole Sulser recently. I expect Baltimore's bullpen to be terrible this year. 

John Means should be a #3 or #4 starter, but on the Orioles he is the ace. Means is a decent pitcher, but the Rays have hit him hard. Means had a 5.40 ERA in five starts against the Rays last year. The Rays current lineup has a great .377 wOBA against Means. Tampa Bay starts the season with Wander Franco in the lineup and I think they can do damage here.

Baltimore has some solid bats with Mountcastle, Mullins, Santander, and Mancini. The Orioles project as a team that will be much better against left handed pitching than right handed pitching. Shane McClanahan is a pretty good pitcher, but he actually has worse numbers at home than on the road.

The over is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two in Tampa Bay.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Bucks were absolutely torched by the LA Clippers last game. The Clippers put up 153 points and made 23 three point shots. Robert Covington made 11 of them by himself. The Bucks sat out all their best players in that game. 

Milwaukee is second in the Eastern Conference standings. The Bucks are just one game ahead of the fourth place 76ers. These last few games are important to the Bucks and I think with their starters back in the lineup here they will show up defensively.

Dallas was blasted by Washington in an embarrassing 135-103 game last time out. The Mavericks have been a top ten defense on the year though. Dallas ranks second slowest in the NBA in tempo in the last ten games. They will try to slow the game down here.

Two teams with a win percentage of 60% or higher from game 60 of the season on- the under is slightly better than 57% since 2005. This angle has been very good in recent seasons. This game fits the angle.

This is also an early game on Sunday and those have been strong to the under in the long haul.

Both teams should be playing hard for playoff seeding here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* We've reached the Final Four. While there were many upsets along the way, we have a final four of all big name programs. Villanova takes on Kansas in the first game at the Superdome on Saturday evening. 

Villanova is without Justin Moore and that definitely hurts them quite a bit, but this is a really well coached Villanova team. Jay Wright knows his team has a better chance if they keep this game played in the halfcourt and slow the pace down as much as possible. Villanova has played six games in a row to a pace of 62 possessions or slower. 

Kansas has done a solid job not fouling down the stretch this season. Villanova shoots a ridiculous 83 percent from the line, and if Kansas can keep them off the line they have a much better chance of slowing the Wildcats down here. The Jayhawks have seen their last two games played to 127 and 126 points. They are usually a pretty high scoring team, but they have had several low games on neutral courts this year.

This game is played at the Superdome in New Orleans. In the last 15 years, there have been 3 games played at the Superdome. Those three games were the Final 4 and Championship Games back in 2012. All 3 of those games went under the total. They all went under the closing total by at least 5 points. This is a huge stadium with tough sight lines. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Golden State Warriors host the Phoenix Suns on Wednesday night. Golden State plans to have Draymond Green, Klay Thompson, and Andre Iguodala all on the floor together for the first time this year. 

Andre Iguodala has the best individual defensive player rating on this team. Green is second best. Thompson is clearly a good defender as well. With these guys all on the floor, Golden State is a very good defensive team. 

Phoenix has Chris Paul back in the lineup. Paul is excellent on offense, but the team plays at a slower pace with him leading the way. The Suns are in transition much more often when Cam Payne is at point guard. 

A game late in the season between two good teams has been a good under bet in the last 15 seasons in the NBA. In fact, between game 60 and 82 of the season a game played between two teams with a win percentage of 60% or higher- the under is 57.2% dating back to 2006. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* This is an NIT Semifinal for Tuesday March 29. There is quite an impressive NIT Semifinal and Finals totals trend that stands out. The under is 28-12 in the last 40 NIT Semifinals and Finals round games with a total of 129 or higher. The under is 23-6 in games with a total of 135.5 or higher in this spot.

The venue here is Madison Square Garden. It is absolutely one of the best under venues in college basketball. This is a massive arena with a tough shooting backdrop. 

Throw in the fact that in the early rounds of the NIT most teams care very little, but once they reach this stage they are going to slow down and give more effort on defense. 

Texas A&M actually hasn't had any of their 3 NIT games thus far go over 136 points. Washington State has seen two of their three games stay under. The other one only finished at 138 points.

Both Washington State and Texas A&M are better on defense than offense. Washington State ranks 263rd in effective FG percentage offense and 39th in effective FG % defense. Texas A&M is 198th on offense and 65th on defense.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Mavericks host the Utah Jazz in an important late regular season game between two teams tied in the Western Conference playoff standings. 

These teams are tied for fourth place in the Western Conference standings. They are also only 2.5 games ahead of Minnesota for the 7th spot in the standings. Remember, #7-#10 are in the "play in" tournament. Everyone will push hard to stay out of those spots. 

These late season regular season games between two good teams have been good to under bettors. When both teams have a win percentage of 60% or higher and it is game 60 or later of the regular season the under is 56.9% dating back to 2005. In recent years, this angle has done very well.

Dallas ranks dead last in the NBA in pace in the last 10 games. Utah ranks 24th. The tempo here should be slow. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Villanova Wildcats rank 345th in the country in overall tempo. The Houston Cougars rank 338th in the nation in tempo. These are two bottom 20 teams in the nation in pace of play. The pace here should be extremely slow with this one almost exclusively being played in the halfcourt. 

Houston slowed Arizona down and that game finished at only 62 possessions. Villanova hasn't had a game in the NCAA Tournament over 62 possessions. I think there is a good shot this game plays to 60 possessions or fewer based on how slow the teams play and the importance of the game.

Villanova is 24th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Houston relies heavily on offensive rebounds. Villanova ranks 80th in the country in second chance points allowed, which is better than Houston's first two opponents in the NCAA Tournament.

Houston is 3rd in effective field goal percentage defense. The Cougars will likely make the post up offense and pick and roll offense Villanova runs tough sledding for the Wildcats here.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Providence Friars are a really well coached team. Ed Cooley is willing to do whatever it takes to keep his teams in the game. They will mix in zone looks including 1-3-1 zone defense to trap and keep the opponent off guard. Providence is likely to do a lot of mixing up their defenses here against a good Kansas offense.

I also expect Providence to look to slow the pace down. The Friars aren't likely to want a track meet type game here. Providence ranks 283rd in the country in overall tempo.

Kansas has been excellent on 3 point defense. In the Big 12, Kansas' opponents shot less than 28% from 3 point range. Providence has shot it well from long range, but Shot Quality and other analytical sites believe they are due for regression. I think Providence could struggle to find open looks in this one.

The under is 22-8-2 in the last 32 Sweet 16 games with a spread of 7.5 or larger. The consensus line here is 7.5 right now. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Gonzaga Bulldogs are favored by 9 or 9.5 points in this one. Games with a spread of 7.5 points or more are 21-8-2 to the under in the Sweet 16. This game fits the system.

The Arkansas Razorbacks offense has been inconsistent this year. Arkansas ranks only 237th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. The Razorbacks  rely heavily on getting to the free throw line. They are 15th in FTA/FGA in the country. Gonzaga has always been good at defending without fouling though and this year is no different. The Bulldogs rank 22nd in the nation in defensive FTA/FGA. Arkansas is just 30.5% from 3 point range this year, and I don't trust them to knock down jumpers here on a neutral court in San Francisco.

Gonzaga's offense is really good. There isn't much bad to say about them. They can be hit or miss from 3 point range at times. Arkansas has a good shot blocker down low in Jaylin Williams. 

Look for Chet Holmgren's length inside to really bother the Arkansas frontcourt here.

This is a 4 pm local time tipoff in a neutral venue, which is a positive for the under.

I'll back the system and take the under here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Golden State Warriors are without Stephen Curry and to say that this team looks different now is a major understatement. Not surprisingly, Curry is easily Golden State's highest rated offensive player. Otto Porter Jr. is seeing a lot more minutes now and he is much better defensively than on offense.

Golden State ranks 3rd last in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the last two games (without Curry). Those two games were against terrible defenses in the Spurs and the Magic. Now, Golden State goes to play a top five defense in the NBA in Miami.

The Heat and the Warriors both rank in the bottom ten in the NBA in tempo in the last month. I would expect this game to be played at a relatively slow tempo.

Miami is off an embarrassing loss where their defense gave up 113 points to a 76ers team without Harden and Embiid. The Heat should be better defensively.

There are multiple strong systems on the under late in the season in the NBA when it is a matchup of two teams with a good record. This one fits.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Purdue Boilermakers rank second in the country in offensive efficiency. Purdue was rolling on offense against Yale, but took their foot off the gas as many high seeds do with a large lead in the second half of the Round of 64 matchups.

Purdue has two elite big men in Edey and Williams. Edey is particularly hard to matchup against. He is an offensive rebounding machine. Texas has had trouble with defensive rebounding all year. Expect it to be a major issue here. 

Jaden Ivey is one of the best offensive players in the country, and he should be a handful here too.

Texas has improved in recent weeks on offense. The Longhorns are likely to have success in this game. As good as Purdue is on offense, the Boilermakers aren't very good defensively. Purdue is just 90th in the nation in defensive efficiency.

A close game is expected here. Purdue gets to the line a bunch and Texas fouls a lot as well. A foul fest late or even overtime is a possibility.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UNC Greensboro Spartans rank 350th out of 358 teams in the country in average possession length. They are stalling in a big way. UNC Greensboro has played a bunch of games to 60 possessions or less this year. 

Boston University is 274th in average possession length. The Terriers definitely prefer to play slowly as well. There should be no pace war in a game like this.

This is a small postseason tournament and the total is adjusted upward for that. This game is played at a neutral site though and neutral site games have played to lower total in the long run than regular home sites. 

Neither team gets to the line very much and I believe it will take very good shooting numbers to get this one past the total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Gonzaga Bulldogs play at the single fastest pace in the country in terms of average possession length. Memphis will use a full court press and very aggressive defense to try to get points off turnovers. While Gonzaga hasn't been terrible about turning the ball over this year, they haven't faced teams who press in the WCC.

Memphis ranks 9th in quick points off steals. Gonzaga ranks 110th in preventing those quick points off steals. Gonzaga ranks 4th in halfcourt defense and 139th in transition defense. Memphis will try to score in transition here.

Memphis is certainly much better on offense with DeAndre Williams in the lineup now. The Tigers get a lot of second chance points and get to the line a lot. 

Gonzaga's offense is so balanced that I believe they can do damage against Memphis. The Tigers are also weak in transition defense (110th) and Gonzaga can take advantage of that weakness in a big way.

The pace here should be extremely fast.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UTEP Miners have sped up their pace late in the season. UTEP is aggressive with their defense and they look for chances to get steals and score quickly in transition. Western Illinois has had recent problems taking care of the basketball and their transition defense ranks in the bottom 60 teams in the country.

Western Illinois also is terrible at defending the 3 point line. UTEP takes a lot of long range jumpers.

Western Illinois has seen 8 of their last 10 games go over this total. UTEP has been back and forth on higher and lower scoring.

This is a first round smaller postseason tournament, and these games have gone over at a better than 55% clip in the last decade.

Take the over. 

*3 Star  Play Under*

Seton Hall point guard, Bryce Aiken, is badly missed by the Seton Hall offense. Seton Hall will probably be playing at a slow pace since TCU is strong when it comes to dictating tempo. TCU ranks among the 50 slowest teams in average possession length. 

Seton Hall is still an elite defensive team. TCU isn't a good jump shooting team and they are reliant on getting a lot of second chance points. Over the course of the season, Seton Hall has been above average at preventing second chance opportunities. 

This total is set low, but I still believe it is a little too high. Look for the two offenses to struggle to get open looks. 

Take the under.

3* Play Under  The Cal State Fullerton Titans had been unable to score against quality competition. Fullerton scored only 66 against Wyoming, and 56 against San Diego State. Duke has a huge size advantage in this game. Fullerton prefers to drive to the hoop, but Duke ranks top 30 in blocked shots and #2 in the county in defending without fouling. Duke has slowed down their tempo late in the season. 

A great long term angle on round of 64 totals has been betting the under when a highly seeded team is a large favorite. When the favorite is -8 or higher, the under has hit at better than 60% over the past 15 years.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Under* The Purdue Boilermakers play the Yale Bulldogs in the NCAA Tournament first round.

High seeds favored by at least 6 points in round one of the NCAA Tournament have been great under bets when the total has been above 135. That system is above 60% in the last decade. This game fits this system.

Yale isn't very good offensively, and they prefer to play slowly. The Bulldogs aren't likely to be able to expose Purdue's relative defensive weaknesses. 

Matt Painter's team has shown the willingness to slow down when they have a sizeable late lead. The Boilermakers are likely going to be playing from the lead throughout here.

I'm trusting the system and expecting a pretty slow pace here as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Iowa Hawkeyes offense is absolutely rolling right now. Keegan Murray is arguably the best offensive player in the country. Murray has been shooting lights out of late, and he is far from the only weapon this Hawkeyes team has on offense. Kris Murray is also playing really well and is breaking out on offense. Jordan Bohannon is an elite outside shooter. Iowa is averaging 1.215 points per possession on the year. That is only behind Gonzaga.

Richmond ranks 315th in transition defense. The Spiders are terrible in transition defense, and Iowa is all about pushing the pace. They rank 20th in average possession length in the country. The Spiders aren't likely to have any answers. Grant Golden is a good player, but he is too slow and weak defensively to keep up with the Iowa frontcourt.

Iowa is still only decent on defense. Richmond star guard Gilyard should give the Hawkeyes some trouble here. Golden is a good offensive big man who can pass it well and set up shooters. Iowa struggles to defend the 3 point line. 

Iowa is 3rd in the country in turnover percentage. Richmond is 9th. Don't expect many wasted possessions in this one. 

Richmond gave up 85 to Utah State and 86 to Maryland in the non-conference slate. Iowa should put up a big number here. I think Richmond scores enough too.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Baylor Bears are the top seed in this region, and they'll play Norfolk State from the MEAC. 

Norfolk State has a long history of not scoring many points in games against high level competition. The MEAC is a very weak league, and when Norfolk State's offense has stepped up in class, the results haven't been good. 

Norfolk State scored just 48 on Xavier earlier this year. They scored only 58 against Wichita State. They scored just 54 against a weak New Mexico defense. Last year they made the NCAA Tournament and scored 54 points on Appalachian State and 55 on Gonzaga (they had just 39 with 5 minutes remaining in that one). They scored only 47 on a good UNC Greensboro defense early last year. 

I don't think Norfolk State is going to score much here. Baylor is a bit shorthanded here, but I think that hurts them more on offense than defense. The question is how many will Baylor score? Baylor is likely to be leading big in this one. The history of these high vs. low seed matchups is the better team lets their foot off the gas enough late in these games that the under has done very well in the last 15 years in the NCAA Tournament. I think this sets up as another game where that can happen.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Long Beach State 49ers push the pace to the extreme. Long Beach ranks 27th in the country in overall tempo. The 49ers defense is 256th in effective field goal percentage defense. They did look pretty good in Big West play defensively, but there are all kinds of really bad offenses in the Big West right now.

BYU ranks 124th overall in tempo, so the Cougars are faster than the average team as well. The Cougars faced some really good defenses on the year. KenPom rates their slate of defenses faced 51st toughest in the country. BYU is up against a much weaker defense here in Long Beach State. Alex Barcello is the leader of a BYU team that shoots the ball really well from 3 point range. Long Beach State ranks 279th in the country in 3 point defense.

BYU ranks 312th in transition defense this year, and Long Beach State gets out in transition early and often. The 49ers should have some success on fastbreaks here. They will use a lot of pressure defense and force turnovers that turn into quick breakaway opportunities.

The over has been a good play early in these smaller postseason tournaments.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Kent State Golden Flashes go to Utah to take on the Southern Utah Thunderbirds. 

Southern Utah ranks 99th in tempo. They will look to push the pace throughout in this  game. Kent State ranks 245th.

Kent State and Southern Utah are both very good at getting to the line. There should be a lot of points from the charity stripe in this one. Additionally, both of these teams have struggled on the defensive glass. Second chance points should help us quite a bit here.

In the smaller postseason tournaments (NIT, CBI, etc) the over is an impressive 55.1% on the closing number since 2006. 

I think this line will move up, and I like the over in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Morgan State Bears are always going to push the pace. They don't know any other way. Morgan State ranks 14th in the country in pace of play. They are getting out in transition at a very high rate.

Youngstown State ranks 224th in overall tempo. Youngstown State is 322nd in defensive efficiency in the country. The question with Morgan State is always whether they will make enough shots, but against this weak defense I do think they can score enough. 

The two offenses have massive advantages on the boards. Youngstown State ranks 73rd in second chance conversion percentage. The Morgan State defense ranks 279th. Morgan State's offense is 42nd in the nation in second chance conversions. Youngstown State's defense ranks 276th. 

In the smaller postseason tournaments (NIT, CBI, etc) the over is an impressive 55.1% on the closing number since 2006. 

I think this line will move up, and I like the over in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Wright State Raiders rank 97th in overall tempo. There are a lot of teams in the Horizon League that don't like to play quickly, but Wright State gets their chance to run and gun here.

Bryant ranks 7th in the nation in tempo. The Bulldogs have the leading scorer in the country in Peter Kiss. 

Both of these teams are excellent on the offensive glass. They both rank in the bottom 50 in the country in defensive rebounding as well. There should be a bunch of second chance opportunities throughout this contest. 

The offenses are both better than the defenses in this one. Both teams go to the rim and to the line quite a bit. Neither team has a strong shot blocker.

Expect a fast paced game here. Take the over here.

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets and Philadelphia 76ers are both teams who prefer to play at a slow pace. These two teams want a halfcourt battle rather than a transition game.

Late in the NBA regular season, games between two teams with a high win percentage have been good under bets. In fact, games after game 60 of the regular season- when the road team has a win percentage of 55% or higher and the home team has a win percentage of 60% or higher.. and the total is 210 or higher- the under is a whopping 141-86 (62.1% unders).

This game fits this system nicely. Two good teams playing to better their position in the NBA playoff standings.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Most people would likely guess Gonzaga had the best offense in the country this year. That would be wrong. 

Purdue ranks first in the country in offensive efficiency for the season. Who ranks second? The Iowa Hawkeyes. Here we have a matchup of the top two offenses in terms of efficiency in the country. 

In Big Ten play, the Iowa Hawkeyes actually ranks first in offensive efficiency, and Purdue ranks second. 

Iowa ranks 96th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Purdue ranks 102nd in the nation in defensive efficiency. Neither of these teams are very good on that end of the floor. 

Both these teams shoot the ball really well from 3 point range and both defenses struggle defending long range jumpers. 

On the whole, I don't like betting conference tournament unders. This though is a court where scoring has been just fine. Also, the Big Ten Tournament finals have actually been more to the over in the last decade. 

These offenses are just too good.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is the Southland Conference Tournament Championship played in Katy, Texas on a neutral floor. The games on this neutral floor have been playing to a much slower pace and have been much lower scoring than the regular season games in the Southland.

Both of these teams do play quickly, and the total should be set pretty high. I do think this total is a few points too high though considering the circumstances. The winner of this game will make the NCAA Tournament. 

Final games in Conference Tournaments are 56.6% to the under in the last 15 years. The game tends to slow down and the shooting percentages are a bit lower.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kent State Golden Flashes and Akron Zips are bitter rivals. Kent State won two hard fought games between these two in the regular season. 

Those two games finished at 122 and 130 points combined. Shot Quality says based on the quality of shots taken those games should have finished at 122 and 113 points.

These are two good defensive teams and I think both teams will have a hard time finding open looks.

This game is played at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse where the Cavs play. This is a large arena and the under is 36-26 in the last 62 MAC Tournament games played here.

Final games in Conference Tournaments are 56.6% to the under in the last 15 years. The game tends to slow down and the shooting percentages are a bit lower.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Creighton just torched the nets against Providence last night. I don't think they will do it again here. They are without star guard Ryan Nembhard, and overall their offense has been clearly worse without him on the floor.

Villanova plays at the 347th fastest tempo out of 358 teams. The Wildcats are very good offensively, but Creighton is the number one defense in the Big East in terms of efficiency.

Both of these teams are elite at defending without fouling. 

Final games in Conference Tournaments are 56.6% to the under in the last 15 years. The game tends to slow down and the shooting percentages are a bit lower.

Madison Square Garden postseason neutral site games have been great in the long run. This is a tough shooting backdrop in a huge arena. Another plus for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Providence Friars and Creighton Blue Jays met recently and the final was 72-51. Creighton struggled against Ed Cooley's unique mix of man and zone defenses. 

The Blue Jays aren't the same offensive team without Ryan Nemhard. Creighton is much better than people realize on defense though. The Blue Jays are 17th in effective field goal percentage defense. 

Providence has had trouble shooting at Madison Square Garden in their last couple trips. They averaged 1 point per possession against a mediocre Butler defense yesterday. They averaged just 0.86 points per possession in their Big East Tournament loss to DePaul last year. 

Both teams prefer to play at a slow pace.

Madison Square Garden has been one of the best under venues in college basketball for many years. The shooting backdrop is tough and this is a massive arena. The under has hit north of 58% in the postseason games here in the past decade.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams met during the regular season twice. One of the games stayed far below this total. One of the games went above this total due to a late foul fest.

Monmouth's defense has been excellent late in the season. The Hawks are really clamping down on the defensive end. They have also slowed their pace down quite a bit. Their game against Niagara was played to only 58 possessions yesterday. 

Rider has been inconsistent on offense this year. The Broncs have improved defensively a lot from last year.

Boardwalk Hall has been a tremendous under venue in the MAAC Tournament the last few seasons.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The North Texas Mean Green have been one of the best under teams in the country this year. North Texas again went under the total yesterday thanks to their extremely slow pace and great defense. They slowed that game down so drastically against Rice that the game was just 53 possessions! That's one of the slowest paces of any game this year.

The most recent game between North Texas and LA Tech was 56-49. Last year in the Conference USA Semifinals these two played a game that was 54-48.

LA Tech played a 59-57 game against a much worse defense and faster paced team in W Kentucky yesterday.

The Frisco Center at the Star has proven to be a tremendous under venue through the years.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Monmouth Hawks take on the Niagara Eagles tonight in the MAAC Tournament. 

These teams played two regular season games. They were 106 points and then 122 points in regulation. 

These two teams rank 51st and 95th in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. Niagara ranks 204th in effective field goal percentage offense. Monmouth ranks 274th in effective field goal percentage offense.

Boardwalk Hall has been an exceptional under venue. The unders that have cashed here have cashed by an average of more than 16 points.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders have slowed down their pace a lot in the last couple months. MTSU was pushing the pace in the non conference slate, but they rank 11th out of 14 teams in Conference USA in tempo. Middle Tennessee has really been playing good defense in the conference slate. They rank third in defensive efficiency in Conference USA. Middle Tennessee has seen their last three games go far under this total.

UTEP could only score 59 points the first time these two teams played. Outside of Souley Boum no one scored more than 8 points for the Miners. UTEP is very inconsistent on offense. 

The Ford Center at the Star in Frisco is an excellent under venue. This is a Dallas Cowboys practice facility turned into a basketball setup with two games going on at once side by side.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Grand Canyon and Sam Houston State played two very low scoring games in the regular season.

Grand Canyon is an elite defense. The strength of their defense is defending the 3 point line. Sam Houston State takes a lot of 3's, but Grand Canyon ranks 4th in the country in 3 point defense. That plays into the hands of the Antelopes. 

Sam Houston State is a very good defense as well. The Bearkats force quite a few turnovers and Grand Canyon has turned it over quite a bit this year. That could lead to quite a few wasted possessions from Grand Canyon.

This is on a neutral floor where scoring is usually down a bit on the average.

The defenses are clearly better than the offenses in this matchup. 

Take the under here.

*4 Star Play Under* The Siena Saints take on the Quinnipiac Bobcats on Thursday evening in the MAAC Tournament. 

Siena plays at a slow pace. The Saints rank 243rd in average possession length in the country. Quinnipiac does play quicker at 90th in the country in overall pace. 

Both of the regular season games between these two saw a late foul fest make the final total be much higher than it should have been. 

This game is played at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City. The under is 13-5 in MAAC Tournament games played there. The 5 games that have gone over the total here have only gone over by an average of 4.6 points per game. Many of the unders have gone far below the total. The shooting backdrop here at this large venue is clearly a problem.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The North Texas Mean Green play at the slowest pace of any team in the country. They rank #358 out of 358 teams in terms of pace of play. North Texas is extremely well coached by Grant McCasland. The Mean Green are excellent defensively, and they do a great job of taking care of the basketball and winning low scoring games. They force teams to play their style of basketball. 

Rice was blown out by North Texas twice this year. The Owls scored 43 and 44 points in those contests. The Owls have slowed their pace of play down drastically in recent weeks. 

In conference action, N Texas was the slowest team in terms of average possession length, and Rice was the third slowest in Conference USA.

The Ford Center at the Star in Frisco is an excellent under venue. This is a Dallas Cowboys practice facility turned into a basketball setup with two games going on at once side by side.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Morgan State Bears and the South Carolina State Bulldogs meet Thursday night in the MEAC Tournament. 

South Carolina State has improved immensely on the defensive end late in the season. Year over year their defensive improvement has been massive as well. This team was ranked #339 in effective field goal percentage defense last year. They sit at #158 this season. In 8 of South Carolina State's last 9 games the final total has been 142 points or less.

Morgan State averaged 1.06 points per possession in the MEAC last year. They averaged only 0.978 points per possession league play this year. They take a lot of bad jump shots and that has pulled down their efficiency.

Norfolk Scope Arena has been a good under venue. It has seen about 56% of games in the postseason go under the total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Marquette Golden Eagles and Creighton Blue Jays played twice this year and the two games couldn't have been more different. The first game was played at a slow pace and went into double overtime and still finished at only 144 points (116 after regulation). The second game was a fast pace and 165 total points.

Creighton is probably in the NCAA Tournament, but a bad performance here could leave them at least somewhat nervous on Selection Sunday. The Blue Jays would prefer this game be played at a slower pace, and I think they'll work hard to do that in this one. Creighton ranks first in the Big East in defensive efficiency, which likely would surprise a lot of people.

Creighton is 9th in the country in 2 point FG percentage defense. They were first in the Big East. In their most recent matchup, Marquette went an insane 60.4% from 2 point range against them. Creighton allowed just 44.1% in the Big East overall. 

Marquette allowed only 46% on 2 point FG in Big East play, but in their most recent game Creighton shot a lights out 62.9% from 2 point range. 

I don't expect these shooting numbers to show up again. This is at Madison Square Garden where the under has been money over the long term. In fact, in postseason games the under sits at almost exactly 60% at MSG in the last 15 years.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Toledo is a great offensive team. The Rockets have put up a lot of points in quite a few MAC games this year. Central Michigan did slow them down at Toledo recently holding them to just 68 points.

The two games between these two in the regular season were 136 and 134 points total. 

There is real blowout potential in this game, and in a conference tournament setting if you are up big many teams will slow things down and rest the legs a bit to be ready for the next day. 

This game is played at the Cleveland Cavs home arena. The under is 35-26 in games here for the MAC Conference Tournament. 

An early tipoff is another bonus in this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Fairfield Stags and St. Peter's Peacocks meet tonight in the MAAC Tournament. These two teams have a long history of low scoring meetings. 

Here are the last 5 meetings with their combined total and then their expected total based on the quality of shots from Shot Quality in ( ):

112 points (115 points)

105 points (117 points) 

105 points (111 points) 

115 points (112 points) 

99 points (No shot quality data available)

129 points (118 points)

98 points (116 points)

The last six meetings have brought 5 games going under this total and 1 that went over. None of the games have a Shot Quality number higher than this total.

This game is played at Boardwalk Hall which has been a great under venue. These two teams met here last year and the total was 99 points.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UTEP Miners rely heavily on steals and quick scores since their halfcourt offense isn't very good. 

Old Dominion doesn't turn the ball over very much at all. The Monarchs run a very conservative slow paced offensive attack. 

Old Dominion shot a whopping 47 free throws in the first meeting with UTEP. They rely heavily on free throws. We have seen the officiating crews in general call less fouls in these conference tournament games. ODU will get to the line plenty, but it should be way down from last game.

The first game stayed under this number in regulation even with the massive amount of free throws.

This game is played at The Ford Center at the Star in Frisco. This is a Dallas Cowboys practice facility. There are multiple games going on at once with a YMCA/Rec League feel and some very tough shooting backdrops. The under is 30-15 in the 45 Conference USA Tournament games played here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Early in the season, Rice was playing at a top 75 tempo in the country. The Owls have slowed down their pace of play drastically late in the season. In the last few weeks, they are playing at a pace slower than the average tempo in the country. 

Charlotte was atrocious on defense earlier this year. They have been much better in recent weeks. The 49ers are coached by a defensive minded coach who wants the team to play slowly.

The first game between these two was 67-64.

This game is played at The Ford Center at the Star in Frisco. This is a Dallas Cowboys practice facility. There are multiple games going on at once with a YMCA/Rec League feel and some very tough shooting backdrops. The under is 30-15 in the 45 Conference USA Tournament games played here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Butler plays at the 338th fastest pace of any team in the country. They are always very slow paced. The Bulldogs settle for far too many 3 point jumpers, and they are shooting just 29.2% from 3 in the Big East Conference. 

Xavier ranks first in the Big East in defensive rebounding. Butler shouldn't get many second chances here. The Musketeers have relied pretty heavily on getting to the free throw line, but Butler is pretty good at defending without fouling.

These two teams met last year in the first round of the Big East Tournament at Madison Square Garden. The final was 70-69 in overtime. At the end of regulation the score was 59-59.

Madison Square Garden is a tremendous under venue in college sports. The under is a whopping 69-45 in postseason games at MSG when the total is set at 127.5 or higher.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both of the regular season meetings between these two teams stayed below this posted total in regulation. The one finished at 145 with overtime. 

This game tips off at 9:30 am local time. That is an extremely early tipoff. Through the years, college games with very early tipoffs have trended under the total. There have been some worse shooting numbers in these games.

Most teams in the Big Sky are all about playing quickly, but Sacramento State has done a good job slowing things down and dictating the tempo this year. 

An early start and two teams who are inconsistent on offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Marist Red Foxes have been better offensively this year, but John Dunne is a defensive-minded coach at heart. Marist is good at controlling the pace too, and they rank 222nd in the country in tempo.

Quinnipiac likes to play fast, but they rely on the outside shot a lot and Dunne's teams defend beyond the arc well.

Boardwalk Hall has been a great under venue in the postseason. This is a large gym with tough shooting backdrops. The under is 11-4 in the MAAC Conference Tournament here (started here in 2020). None of the four overs have gone over by more than 6.5 points. Several of the unders have gone far under the posted total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Southern Miss Golden Eagles are a miserable team. UTSA isn't much better. Two terrible teams playing on a neutral floor in the postseason has been a great under angle in the long run.

Southern Miss ranks about average in tempo. UTSA ranks slightly faster than average. Both teams rank in the bottom 50 in the country in offensive efficiency. They also both rank in the bottom 100 in the country in getting to the free throw line. There will be a lot of mid range and long range jumpers taken in this game.

This one will be played in Frisco Texas at The Ford Center at The Star. This is a Dallas Cowboys practice facility. It is a massive dome and Conference USA has been setting up curtains between two courts and multiple courts play at the same time. To say the least this is a very strange setup. The under is 25-13 in the 38 CUSA Tournament games played here. It has led to quite a few subpar shooting performances.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Fairfield Stags rank last in the MAAC in overall tempo. Fairfield will slow the pace down in this win or go home game against the Canisius Golden Griffins. 

Fairfield hasn't had a game in their last 5 go over this totals number. Four of the five were 129 or lower. They have been much better defensively at the end of the season. They have also slowed down the tempo even more late in the season.

While Canisius prefers to play quickly, they were slowed down in both meetings against Fairfield. The teams both shot lights out in this game. I don't think it will happen again.

Boardwalk Hall has been a great under venue in the postseason. This is a large gym with tough shooting backdrops. The under is 11-4 in the MAAC Conference Tournament here (started here in 2020). None of the four overs have gone over by more than 6.5 points. Several of the unders have gone far under the posted total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Marshall Thundering Herd still play very fast, but they aren't nearly as efficient on offense as they were a couple years ago. Marshall is 205th in the nation in offensive efficiency.

FIU was 30th in the nation in tempo two years ago. They were 82nd last year. FIU ranks only 200th in tempo this year. FIU is 274th in offensive efficiency. I believe Jeremy Ballard knew he doesn't have great offensive talent this year so he changed up their style of play.

Both games in the regular season went under this total. 

This one will be played in Frisco Texas at The Ford Center at The Star. This is a Dallas Cowboys practice facility. It is a massive dome and Conference USA has been setting up curtains between two courts and multiple courts play at the same time. To say the least this is a very strange setup. The under is 25-13 in the 38 CUSA Tournament games played here. It has led to quite a few subpar shooting performances.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The North Dakota State Bison have been one of the top two defenses in the Summit League each of the last four seasons. North Dakota State games have been solid under bets because they provide much better resistance than the majority of teams in this league. Additionally, N Dakota State is good at slowing down the pace of the game.

Oral Roberts and North Dakota State played twice in the regular season. Those games finished at 143 and 136 points total. This game will be played at a neutral site where the under has had the edge. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* This isn't an easy bet to make. Both of these teams play fast and they have had some very high scoring games. The two games between these teams this year finished at 149 and 173 points.

Why am I betting this? The angles suggest a number this high in conference tournaments with a neutral court are very tough to reach. This arena in Washington DC is 8-2 to the under thus far in postseason play. It is playing as an under venue. 

Just blindly betting postseason neutral court unders of 150 or more is hitting nearly 55% in the last 8 years. 

Charleston plays extremely fast, but they aren't always efficient on offense. They are only mediocre shooters from long range. 

The last game between these two teams featured an epic foul fest late that led to 60 points in the final 10 minutes. That made the game much higher scoring than it should have been.

This one is difficult to bet, but in the long run these spots have been good.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Hartford Hawks and Albany Great Danes met twice in the regular season.  Those games finished at 123 and 122 total points. Those games should have been even lower according to Shot Quality based on the types of shots taken by both teams. The two games should have finished with 112 and 105 points according to Shot Quality.

This is a postseason contest, and the win or go home mindset usually slows the game down a bit. Both of these teams like to play slowly to begin with.

It's really important to note that neither of these teams gets to the line much at all. Both regular season games featured less than 20 combined free throw attempts.

I expect another low scoring contest here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are allowing 1.003 points per possession on the road this year. They are allowing 0.912 points per possession at home. Rutgers has a terrific home court advantage and a lot of that comes from their ability to slow teams down and play excellent defense at home.

Penn State won the first matchup 66-49. Shot Quality says based on the shots taken in that game the final should have been 57-56. That was no fluke that the game was extremely low scoring.

Penn State ranks 355th out of 358 teams in the country in tempo on offense. Rutgers ranks 296th in overall tempo in the country. The pace should be extremely slow here.

Neither team fouls much and both teams are good at defending without fouling.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Southern Utah Thunderbirds go to Weber State to take on the Wildcats on Saturday evening. These teams rank 112th and 63rd in the country in tempo, so the pace should be very quick in this one. The first meeting between them was 92-84 Weber State. Shot Quality believes the game should have been 86-77, which is still far above this total.

Weber State ranks 354th in the country in 3 point defense. Southern Utah puts up a lot of 3's and they are shooting 37.6% from 3 in Big Sky Conference play. Southern Utah has scored 79 points or more in 5 of their last 7 games.

Weber State's offense has some big edges in this game. The Wildcats are efficient near the hoop and Southern Utah isn't good defending at the rim. The Wildcats also are good in transition and Southern Utah's transition defense has been a weakness this year. 

An up and down pace should be expected here. Both teams are solid at the line and get to the line quite a bit.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* This is the final game of the regular season for two teams who have had very disappointing seasons this year. Oregon State was in the Elite 8 last year and now they are 3-26 this season. Unreal. The Beavers defense was #106 in the country last year, but they are an awful #339 out of 358 in the country this year.

Washington excels at getting quick points in transition, especially off steals. They are 7th in quick points off steals according to Haslametrics. Oregon State is 317th at preventing those. Look for a lot of run outs for Washington. The Huskies are elite on the offensive glass, and Oregon State has been terrible on the defensive boards. While Washington isn't very good from 3 point range, they are great near the hoop, and Oregon State has virtually no interior defense.

Oregon State is 7th in the country in second chance percentage, so the Beavers should get a bunch of second chance points on a Washington defense that struggles to rebound out of the zone.

Late season games between two mediocre or poor teams have been good over bets in the last 15 years. This one fits.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The under is now 71-38 at Enterprise Arena in the postseason. The MVC tournament has been a bunch of very low scoring games. This is a hockey arena that has tough shooting backdrops. 

Both games in the regular season between these two teams stayed under this total. These two teams both prefer to play slowly, and I think with this game being win or go home it is very likely to be slow as far as the tempo.

Both teams usually shoot the ball pretty well from 3, but we've seen much lower than normal shooting percentages in this arena in the past.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The first game between these two teams finished 91-78. This game probably won't finish that high, but I like it to go over the total. 

Rice puts up a lot of shots from long range. The Owls rank 91st in the nation in 3 point field goal percentage offense. The UTSA defense ranks 315th in 3 point field goal percentage defense. What about the closest shots? According to Haslametrics, Rice is 96th in near proximity FG percentage and UTSA is 248th in defense of those shots near the hoop. 

UTSA pushes the pace. The Roadrunners are 102nd in the nation in tempo. They are one of the worst defenses in the country and Rice shouldn't have much trouble scoring against them. UTSA has been good especially in recent weeks with forcing turnovers and turning them into quick points in transition. Rice has struggled with turnovers and their transition defense is very weak.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under*  The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament tips off in St. Louis on Thursday night. It's time for Arch Madness. This is always one of the most interesting conference tournaments and this is played at Enterprise Center, which has been a fantastic under venue. In fact, in the postseason games played at Enterprise Center- the under is 66-37 in the last 103 contests. 

Bradley ranks #1 in the MVC in defensive efficiency. Loyola Chicago ranks #2. There won't be many easy shots in this one. 

Bradley started the season out playing quick, but their tempo slowed in the important games in the MVC. This is a win or go home game and I would expect both teams to slow down and work really hard on defense.

With the history of this tournament and the top two defenses- I have to bet the under here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UC San Diego Tritons put up a bunch of 3 point jumpers. UC San Diego is shooting a solid 35% from 3 point range on the season. They also shoot 73.5% from the free throw line. Cal State Bakersfield ranks dead last in the country in free throws attempted. UC San Diego should get to the stripe a lot here.

CSU Bakersfield is aggressive going to the rim on offense. They should have success getting to the rim against a weak UC San Diego defense in the interior. UC San Diego has blocked the 6th fewest shots of any team in the country this season.

This is a late season game between two teams who have little to play for and those have been good for over bettors in the last 15 years. In fact, games between two teams with a 55% win percentage or lower in the month of March with a total of 150 or lower are 531-423 since 2006. That is an impressive 55.7% win rate for the over in a large sample size.

Take the over.