This is a 10* on CHARLOTTE

The Clippers, who have gone Under the total in nine consecutive games, are just 5-4 straight up during the same stretch. They did defeat undermanned Toronto 115-96 on Tuesday, but look for the Hornets to be a taller order on Thursday. Playing at home, Charlotte will be looking to cement its status as a top eight team in the Eastern Conference. Finishing in the top eight should be the Hornets goal at this point as they’d only have to win once to escape the play-in round and would also get a mea culpa (second game) if they were to lose their first play-in game. The Clippers are pretty much locked into a top four seed out West and don’t have a ton to play for in the next three games, all of which will be on the road. This is the Hornets’ last regular season home game, so expect there to be some level of motivation, or at least more motivation than the Clippers will have. Charlotte has lost two in a row and three of four - all those games coming at home. Not saying they’re going to win tonight, but taking the points is the correct call. Play on CHARLOTTE

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This is a 10* on ATLANTA

The Hawks beat the Wizards Monday, 125-124, but did not cover the number (-8). It was an interesting game in that the Wizards led 62-61 at halftime, but then Atlanta came storming out of the break to take a 17 point lead after three quarters. But the fourth belonged to Washington as they outscored the Hawks 45-29. Still, Atlanta won despite shooting only 33.3 percent from three (compared to 50% for Washington). The number is a little bit shorter for tonight’s rematch and we will lay the points in this one as Washington isn’t liable to shoot the ball as well as they did Monday. Bradley Beal, who is the NBA’s second leading scorer, has again been ruled out. That the Wizards scored 124 without him on Monday was a surprise. Atlanta has won four of five and is trying to lock down home court advantage for the first round of the playoffs. They are 22-11 SU at home this season, so home court advantage is important to them. Monday was their eighth straight win here. They are 14-2 ATS L16 as a home favorite. Play on ATLANTA

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This is a 10* on MIAMI

This is a really important game in the race for the six seed in the Eastern Conference. Miami has a two-game lead over Boston after beating them (the Celtics) on Sunday 130-124 here in Beantown. The six seed, as a reminder, avoids the play-in tournament. So it’s very significant to finish in the top six in your conference. The Heat have been the hotter team of late with wins in 9 of their last 12 games. The Celtics have dropped six of nine and actually trailed by 30 points in one of those three victories. We’re going with Miami to make it two in a row in Boston tonight on TNT. The Heat led by 26 at halftime Sunday after shooting 65 percent. Boston got some really bad news yesterday when it was announced that Jaylen Brown, who is having a career year, is done for the season because of a wrist injury. Before getting beaten by the Heat 48 hours ago, the Celtics lost by 22 at Chicago. They’ve now used 34 different starting lineups this season, fourth most in the league, and there’s just not a lot of positives for this team right now. Play on MIAMI

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This is a 10* on NEW ORLEANS

The Pelicans desperately need to win Sunday. They are two back of San Antonio, who lost yesterday, for 10th place and the last play-in spot. They’ll head to a place the fans know well, Charlotte, as that’s the franchise’s former home. Neither Zion Williamson or Brandon Ingram will make the trip though as both are injured at the most inopportune time. But without either, New Orleans almost defeated Philadelphia on Friday. They lost that game by only two. Charlotte doesn’t scare us as they too have an injury-depleted roster. The Hornets have won back to back games only one time since April 10th. They are off a win over Orlando on Friday. New Orleans hasn’t dropped consecutive games since a four-game losing streak in mid-April. They are 4-0 ATS off a loss since then. They are 21-9 ATS vs. the Hornets and won the last two times they’ve come to Charlotte. The Hornets are 5-11 ATS their last 16 games. New Orleans is 5-0 ATS its last five road games and 4-0 ATS its last four as an underdog. Play on NEW ORLEANS

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This is an 8* on ORLANDO

Minnesota laying seven points on the road seems a bit excessive. They’ve won only eight times on the road all season and have the third worst overall win percentage in the entire NBA. We know the Magic have been struggling recently, but they are still a game better than the Timberwolves. And recent Orlando efforts - except the one vs. Boston - have been competitive. They beat Memphis and Detroit last weekend and were neck and neck with Charlotte most of the way Friday. In January, they rallied from a 16-point halftime deficit to win 97-96 at Minnesota. This will be only the fourth time the T’wolves have been favored to win a road game in 2020-21. They are 2-1 SU/ATS in the other three, but the scoring margin is just +2.0 PPG. Play on ORLANDO

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This is a 10* on PORTLAND

Both teams won last night. San Antonio got a much needed win in Sacramento, 113-104, ending a five-game losing streak in the process. Portland won for the sixth time in seven games, beating the Lakers 106-101, but did not cover the spread. We think the Blazers will cover Saturday night as they continue their pursuit of a top six spot in the Western Conference. The win over the Lakers did help as it moved them a game ahead. The difference between finishing sixth and seventh is huge because of the new play-in round. The Spurs can only hope for a play-in round appearance as they are 10th, 2.5 games up on New Orleans. (Ten teams make the playoffs, including the play-in round). The best San Antonio can probably hope for is 8th, but that’s still the play-in round and honestly they don’t want to face the Lakers or Blazers in that situation. (Although the winner of the 7th vs. 8th place game is guaranteed a first round playoff series). But the bottom line is Portland is 7-1 ATS its last eight vs. teams with losing records and going to stop an 0-5 ATS skid as home favorites. Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 10* on PHOENIX

The Knicks have been so successful ATS that they’ve even caught the eye of “mainstream” outlets like ESPN. Coming into tonight’s game with Phoenix, New York has gone 43-23 against the spread this season, a cover rate of 65.1%. Per the ESPN report, only two other teams in the past 30 years have covered 65% of their games in a given season. That’s pretty good for a team that opened the year tied with Cleveland and Detroit as the biggest long-shot to win the NBA Finals (500-1!). But now that they’re getting this kind of recognition, it’s probably a choice time to start fading. Just 48 hours ago, the Knicks got their doors blown off in Denver 113-97, a bad call by us. But we’ve learned our lesson and now are going to fade as the Knicks’ toughest road trip of the season continues tonight in the desert. The Suns have been just as surprising as the Knicks this year, maybe even moreso, as they have the league’s second best overall record. After a shocking 32-point loss to Atlanta on Wednesday, they should be surly. The Suns have won and covered all five matchups with the Knicks the past three seasons including a 118-110 win in Madison Square Garden last month. That ended what was a nine-game Knicks win streak at the time. Phoenix has been great off a loss this year, going 14-4 ATS, so lay the points with confidence. Play on PHOENIX

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This is a 10* on the LAKERS

Betting either the Lakers or the Clippers recently has been hazardous to one’s bankroll. The Lakers are just 1-7 ATS their last eight games, though they did just upset Denver - as a 3.5 point underdog - on Monday. They did so without the services of LeBron James. James returned on 4/30 against the Kings and also played on 5/2 vs Toronto, but those were both Lakers’ losses. They are 2-6 SU those last eight games and have fallen into a tie with Dallas for 5th in the West. Seventh place Portland is lurking just a half game back, so there’s a chance the defending NBA champs could end up in the play-in round. James is not playing tonight, but we’ll still take the points with the Lakers as the league’s “other LA team” has not covered in five straight and should not be laying so many points. The Clippers have lost three of the last five games outright and the two wins - both of which were against non-playoff teams - were by just five points each. They trailed much of the way against Toronto in their last game. Remember the Lakers still have Anthony Davis and are #1 in the league in points allowed per possession. Play on LA LAKERS

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This is a 10* on the KNICKS

Two hot teams meet in Denver Wednesday night. The Knicks are the hotter of the two and arguably the hottest team in the league currently. They’ve won 12 of the last 13 games, including three straight by double digits. Equally as impressive is the fact they are on a 15-1 ATS run! That goes back to April 3rd. Nine of the last 10 wins have been by 10 or more points. The only game the Knicks have lost since April 8th was to Phoenix, who has the best record in the NBA. New York will visit Phoenix on Friday. But first they are in Denver. Tonight is the beginning of a tough four-game stretch, all of them on the road. In addition to visits to Denver and Phoenix, the Knicks go to LA to face the Lakers and the Clippers. We’re taking the points here as they just won in Memphis 118-104 as a 3.5-point dog Monday. That same night, Denver lost to the Lakers 93-89 in a game where LeBron James rested. The Nuggets had won five in a row and nine of 10 before suffering that loss, but remember PG Jamal Murray is out for the year and that absence will be felt moving forward. The Knicks have covered two-thirds of their games this season, easily the best ATS record in the league. Denver lost another guard (PJ Dozier) to injury on Monday. Play on NEW YORK

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This is a 10* on NEW ORLEANS

Minnesota is on a season-best four game win streak. Two of the wins were against Utah. Look for that streak to end tonight though against a somewhat desperate Pelicans team. New Orleans is on a 3-0 ATS run with one SU loss coming by two points. They are 11th in the West, needing to make up a three-game gap to catch Golden State for the final play-in spot. Golden State is who Minnesota just beat, so that helped the Pelicans out. It’s impressive that New Orleans won so comfortably in Oklahoma City as they only shot 5 of 29 from behind the three-point arc. They’ll certainly be better tonight against a T’wolves team that lets opponents hit over 39% from three. Minnesota is still just 2-13 straight up when coming off an upset win as an underdog. The Pelicans have double revenge as they are one of two teams that Minnesota has multiple wins against this season without a loss. New Orleans' last two losses were by two points each, so they could easily be on a five game win streak heading into tonight. This is pretty close to “must win” and they are 27-11 ATS their last 38 road games vs. teams with a home win percentage of .400 or worse. Minnesota is 12-19 at home. Play on NEW ORLEANS

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This is a 10* on PORTLAND

Second time in a row we’re going with Portland. They won big for us in their last game, a 130-109 pummeling of Memphis. They were up 33 at one point. It was the Blazers second straight emphatic victory. They also beat Indiana 133-112 earlier in the week. So coming off back-to-back 130+ point efforts, they look to win their third straight game tonight in Brooklyn. The Nets won’t have Durant or Harden and Irving is listed as questionable. They hope to have Irving back, but it’s a gametime decision. The Nets are 4-0 straight up and against the spread their last four games, but Portland comes in more desperate for a win. They are now one game back of Dallas for the six seed and finishing sixth or higher means you avoid the play-in round. Brooklyn is first out East, even though Philadelphia and Milwaukee have better scoring differentials. The Blazers are a good road team (18-12) and can easily beat the Nets when they don’t have two, or maybe all three of their stars. Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 10* on GOLDEN STATE

For the first time in 2020-21, Minnesota finds itself on a three-game win streak. The only previous time they’d even won two in a row was when they started the season 2-0. Oddly, two of those wins came against the Jazz, the team with the best record in all of basketball. They are 3-0 vs. Utah this season and just 16-44 against everyone else. The third straight win came on Tuesday against a Houston team that is simply playing out the string at this point. We don’t see the Timberwolves extending this improbable win streak tonight though as they face a Golden State team that’s off an incredibly embarrassing 30 point defeat at the hands of Dallas. The Warriors trailed 62-29 at halftime despite the Mavs coming into the game short-handed and it was at HOME. The loss leaves them 31-31 on the year and clinging on to the last available spot for the play-in round. We expect a big time bounce back performance here from Steph Curry as Golden State has already beaten Minnesota by double digits two different times this year. Coach Steve Kerr ripped his team pretty bad after the Dallas loss and said every game from here on out needed to be treated like a playoff game. Lay a really short number in this one. Play on GOLDEN STATE

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This is a 10* on PORTLAND

Big-time revenge game for the Blazers tonight. They’ve lost twice at home to Memphis in the last seven days. This time they face the Grizzlies on the road. They do so on the second night of a back to back. Last night probably could not have gone any better as they boat raced Indiana 133-112. They were 50 of 106 from the field and 20 of 35 from three-point range and took control by outscoring the Pacers 40-16 in the third. They were up 35 at that point, which means key players were able to rest. This race for sixth in the West has gotten quite interesting as Portland lost five in a row, four of them at home, before last night’s win. But they are still 1.5 games up on the Grizzlies and 17-12 SU/ATS on the road. Memphis has a losing home record (13-16 SU) and was blown out in Denver two nights ago. This is their first home game in two weeks. A 24-point loss is not the way you want to end a seven-game road trip and look for that to have an effect on the Grizzlies tonight. They shot really well both games in Portland, but were 4 of 32 from behind the arc in Denver. Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 10* on GOLDEN STATE 

Golden State should really “give it” to Sacramento Sunday night. We had the Warriors in a most impressive 118-97 win against Denver on Friday night. That was their sixth win in the last eight games as they continue their push to the playoffs. The two losses were both close games on the road. All six wins have been nine points or greater and this matchup should continue the trend as the Kings won’t have De’Aaron Fox, who is out due to COVID. The Warriors are winning by an average of 9.5 points in the games where they were favored this year. Steph Curry has scored 30 or more in 12 of his last 13 games and should exceed that number again tonight seeing as the Kings are the worst defensive team in the league. The Kings are also 2-10 in their last 12 games with one of the two wins coming earlier this week, by only three points, against last place Minnesota. Seven of those ten losses have been by double digits. Play on GOLDEN STATE

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This is a 10* on MIAMI

The Heat’s three-game run (win streak) ended Friday with a 118-113 loss in Atlanta. Now they host Chicago for a couple games. These games will have an effect on the Eastern Conference playoff race as the Heat (31-29) sit in seventh place while the Bulls (25-34) are one game back of 10th, which is where they need to be to make the new play-in round. Although we took them on Thursday and they beat Charlotte 108-91, the Bulls aren’t a very good team. Leading scorer Zach LaVine is still out indefinitely (quarantine). The Bulls last road game resulted in a 16-point loss at Cleveland, who isn’t very good. Miami wasn’t very good defensively on Friday, allowing a shorthanded Hawks team to shoot 53.8% and make 15 threes. They were also outrebounded and -13 in fast break points. They can’t afford to lose a second straight game to a team playing without its leading scorer. Several key players had bad shooting nights in Atlanta and we expect them to bounce back and deliver at home. The Heat won by 11 in Chicago last month. Play on MIAMI

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This is a 10* on GOLDEN STATE

Denver enters Friday at 38-20 overall and in 4th place in the Western Conference. They’ve won four straight, but the last two have been by a total of three points and they didn’t cover either of those. Golden State is 29-30 SU this season and coming off a heartbreaking 118-114 loss at Washington Wednesday night. The Warriors are 10th in the West, just barely holding on to a spot for the play-in tournament. So this game would seem more important to them and they’ve got to love the fact it’s at home. Steph Curry and the boys haven’t played a home game in 11 days. The last one was against the Nuggets and they won 116-107 as 5.5-point underdogs. They just completed a successful road trip (3-2) and are 6-3 SU the last nine games overall. In that last meeting, Denver lost point guard Jamal Murray for the season to an ACL injury. We’re surprised they’ve done so well without him. Steph Curry had 53 points in that last meeting and after having an 11-game run of 30+ point games snapped Wednesday, look for him to have another big game tonight. The Warriors are 6-1 ATS the last 7 games vs. Denver. Play on GOLDEN STATE

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This is an 8* on CHICAGO

The race for the four play-in spots in the NBA’s Eastern Conference is intensifying. Washington has gotten hot and there are four teams separated by three games gunning for the last two playoff berths. Charlotte is a little bit ahead of those four teams, in eighth place, but fading rapidly as a rash of injuries have hurt literally and figuratively. Just 1-5 the last six games, the Hornets are without LaMelo Ball, Malik Monk and Gordon Hayward. Without three of their top five scorers, the team has failed to even hit 100 points in five of the past 11 games. Really, we didn’t think this team was all that great BEFORE the injuries and this slide should continue tonight in Chicago. The Bulls are desperate after losing in Cleveland last night 121-105. They are one game back of 10th place as they’ve won just twice in their past eight games. Their leading scorer (Zach LaVine) is also out, but they are still a better offensive team than Charlotte. They also held Cleveland and Boston both to just 96 points in recent wins. We just see Charlotte as a team in a free-fall and it's unlikely to end with so many key players still missing. Play on CHICAGO

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This is a 10* on GSW

Thanks to the latest virtuoso effort from Steph Curry (49 points), the Warriors were able to defeat Philadelphia Monday night 107-96. They are now 3-1 on the current road trip with Curry averaging 42.8 points/game on 55 percent shooting. Their next game is tonight in the Nation’s Capital against a Wizards team that has been surging of late with five straight wins. That win streak has them tied with Chicago for 10th place, the last available spot for the play-in round of the postseason. Golden State, who has won five of its last six overall, is 9th in the West. So this one is every bit as important to them. We don’t see how you can fade Curry right now, especially in this matchup against the team that gives up the second highest number of points/game in the league. The Warriors have revenge for a three-point home loss 12 days ago. The Wizards have a losing record at home. Golden State is 16-6 SU and 14-8 ATS when favored this season. Washington did snap Utah’s long home win streak earlier in the month, but their last four wins have all been against non-playoff teams, the last two vs. Detroit and Oklahoma City, who might be the worst teams in each conference. Play on GOLDEN STATE

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This is a 10* on DALLAS

Dallas is not only off a 117-109 loss to the Knicks (were 6.5-point favorites), but has also failed to cover four in a row. They have a golden opportunity to turn things around Sunday when they host the Kings, losers of nine straight. Sacramento was at least competitive in its last game, but they still lost by eight in Phoenix. They hadn’t covered in five straight before that. No Marvin Bagley III for tonight either. Very bad defense has been the Kings problem all season. They give up the most points per game in the league. This feels like it should be a big offensive night for Dallas, who has struggled at home, They badly want to move up into sixth place in the Western Conference and thus avoid the play-in round for the postseason. They are two games back of sixth place Portland right now. Off their last 10 straight up losses, the Mavs are 7-3 against the spread. This is a mismatch and the Kings haven’t stayed within seven points of anybody in their past six games. Play on DALLAS

This is a 10* on PORTLAND

With just one month left in the regular season, Portland and San Antonio are both struggling at an inopportune time. The Trail Blazers have lost four of five, the most recent loss coming by one point to Boston on Tuesday. The Spurs have lost six of eight and were beaten 117-112 by Toronto on Wednesday. In sixth place as opposed to 10th, the Blazers are in a much better spot than San Antonio right now and we like them to be the ones to bounce back tonight. Compared to a lot of the teams Portland has faced recently, the Spurs are a weak opponent. The Blazers’ SU record vs. sub .500 teams this year is 23-7 and that includes 5-0 in the second half. The Blazers also have a winning record on the road. San Antonio is 12-17 SU at home and is coming off a week-long road trip. They have to head back out on the road for two more (starting tomorrow) and thus will have “less in the tank” here compared to the Blazers, who have been off for two days. Play on PORTLAND

This is a 10* on NEW ORLEANS

Both the Knicks and Pelicans are on three-game win streaks coming into tonight. Only one of those streaks can obviously continue and we think it will be the Pelicans. They’ve beaten Philadelphia, Cleveland and Sacramento. The Knicks have beaten Memphis, Toronto and the Lakers. New York is 6-0 ATS its last six games, but those last three wins all came at home. The Knicks are 8th in the East, but could move as high as 6th with a win here tonight. New Orleans is more desperate as they are a game behind Golden State for the last play-in spot. We expect them to assert themselves here as they led Sacramento by as much as 23 the other night before letting things get a little too close for comfort at the end. Zion Williamson has averaged 35 points/game during the win streak. But the big key here is the Knicks’ 0-5 record, both straight up and against the spread, when they are on a three-game win streak this season. Play on NEW ORLEANS

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This is a 10* on PHOENIX

Over their past two games, the Suns have scored a total of 260 points. They had 81 by halftime last night against Houston as they set a new NBA record with 18 threes made in a single half. Don’t be fooled by that final score from last night either. While it ended up being 126-120, Phoenix was up big much of the way. Tonight they play host to Miami and covering a large spread isn’t something they’ll have to concern themselves with. Winners of nine of their last ten games, the Suns can get within one game of Utah for first place in the West. They are 16-6 ATS this season vs. teams that have a winning record. Miami is 6-1 its last seven games, but isn’t in Phoenix’s league. The Heat lost by 10 at home to the Suns last month and also lost by seven to them in last season’s bubble. They are 6-14 straight up and 7-13 against the spread vs. teams that have a winning record. Play on PHOENIX

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This is a 10* on NEW ORLEANS

Rough situation here for Cleveland, who is playing without rest against a New Orleans team that lambasted them 116-82 last month. Here at home, the Cavs gave up 135 points last night to a Toronto team that was severely short-handed. Gary Trent Jr scored 44 for the Raptors! So Zion Williamson has to be “licking his chops” heading into this Sunday night matchup as the Pelicans look to make it two straight wins. On Friday, they defeated Philadelphia 101-94 as a five-point home underdog. Now they are a road favorite, a big difference, but they also go from facing one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference to one of the worst. New Orleans really needs to win this game as they are 1.5 games behind Golden State (who was victorious last night) for the last playoff spot. There were two times earlier in the season where the Cavs suffered an outright loss when they were favored to win. After both of those losses, they failed to cover the next game. They’re in that situation again here, a situation they are 3-7 ATS L10. Play on NEW ORLEANS

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This is a 10* on SACRAMENTO

Back on Thursday, Utah avoided what would have been the first three-game losing streak of the season, defeating Portland 122-103. But they had to rally from a halftime deficit to do so. They used a 40-19 third quarter to seize control of the game and that was “all she wrote” as the Jazz won their 23rd straight home game. They’re at home again tonight and facing a Kings team that has lost five in a row. But predictably the number is large. Too large in our eyes as Sacramento hasn’t gotten this many points in a game all season. What’s strange about the Kings’ five game losing streak is that they were favored on three different occasions. They’d also WON five in a row before losing five straight. They’ve gone off as the favorite in six of their last ten games. The four times they’ve been underdogs, they are 3-1 ATS with two outright wins and one of the losses coming by just one point. We think the team comes in with a positive mindset after a poor effort at home vs. Detroit the other night. Utah is only 2-6 ATS coming off their previous eight wins by 10 or more points. Play on SACRAMENTO

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This is a 10* on MINNESOTA

This is the kind of game where everyone just assumes the Celtics will “roll,” but doing that is often easier said than done. Minnesota may not have a very good record, but they’ve covered five of the last eight games and the last one (which they did NOT cover) was only a four-point loss. Boston is off a two-point win against the Knicks, but has not been scoring a ton recently and failed to cover four of its last six games. They finished with just 101 points against the Knicks after being held to 96 in a loss to the Sixers. That’s just not enough offense to make us think they can cover this large spread. This Celtics team hasn’t been above .500 in almost a month and basically lives off reputation. They were down seven in the fourth quarter to the Knicks. Minnesota will be looking for a win here as it has not prevailed in Beantown since 2005. Nor have they beaten the Celtics anywhere going back to 2016. That’ll be on the minds of players tonight and Karl-Anthony Towns, who had 32-12 against Indiana, should keep them in this one. Grab the points. Play on MINNESOTA

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This is a 10* on ATLANTA

We rode the Hawks to an easy 123-106 win over New Orleans last night and will stick with them again tonight as they host Memphis in a matchup where both teams are in the second night of a back to back. The Grizzlies were also double digit winners Tuesday, although they had to go on the road to defeat 124-112. Winning back to back nights on the road is pretty tough in this league. The Grizzlies know this all too well as they are 0-3 straight up and against the spread when playing for a second straight night on the road. Those three losses have come by an average of 19 points/game. They’ve lost by 16 at Utah (3/27), 23 at Phoenix (3/15) and, 18 at Indiana (2/2). Twice they were coming in off a win. It doesn’t help them that Atlanta has won and covered seven consecutive home games, a streak that predates the All-Star Break. The Hawks have moved into 4th place in the Eastern Conference with a 4-0 (both SU/ATS) April where they’ve averaged 125 points/game. Memphis is 3-0 SU/ATS in April, but that inability to win back to back road games looms large in handicapping this one. The Hawks took the first meeting 122-112 in Memphis back in December. Play on ATLANTA

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This is a 10* on ATLANTA

These young Hawks are starting to spread their wings as they’ve won three straight, moving them into a fourth place tie with Miami in the East. Each of the three wins have seen Atlanta cover the spread. Only one of the three was a blowout, but it happened to be against the team they’ll face again tonight. New Orleans was without four starters for that game and both Zion Willamson/Brandon Ingram are listed as questionable for tonight’s rematch. We did take the Pelicans on Sunday, when they got Lonzo Ball and Steven Adams back, but they were also facing a horrible Houston team. The Pelicans don’t defend well (28th in points allowed per possession) and are 0-6 ATS the L6 meetings with Atlanta. The Hawks have injuries too, but showed off their depth in Sunday’s 117-111 win over Golden State where they were +36 in bench scoring. Trae Young didn’t even play in the blowout win over these Pelicans last week. The Hawks are 6-0 ATS their last six home games. Play on ATLANTA

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This is a 10* on BAYLOR

We’ve ridden Baylor each of the last three rounds. They were our top Sweet 16 side (beat Villanova 62-51 as 7.5-point favorites), our top Elite 8 side (beat Arkansas 81-72 as 7.5-point favorites), then were our *10* NCAA GAME OF THE YEAR when they walloped Houston 78-59 (as 5-point favorites) in Saturday’s Final Four. Now the Bears are underdogs for the first time all season as they play undefeated Gonzaga for the National Championship. We saw Saturday that the Zags are not infallible. While UCLA may not have been your “normal 11-seed,” Gonzaga needed OT and an all-time buzzer beater to get by. This despite shooting 58.7% for the game. Baylor has basically led start to finish in four of their five tournament games (‘Nova was the exception to that). They’ve lost only two games this season and both came shortly after a three-week pause due to COVID-19. They are over that now. The five tournament wins have been by an average of 15.2 points/game. While the Bears haven’t been underdogs in any game in 2020-21, they are 16-6 ATS L22 times in that role. Can they win this game? Absolutely. So we’ll take the points as Baylor is #1 in the country in three-point shooting and should also have their way inside the paint. Play on BAYLOR

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This is an 8* on CLEVELAND

Cleveland is a bit of a “tough sell” right now with five straight losses coming into tonight. Four of those losses have been by at least 12 points. Not a ton of offense to speak of either as they’ve gone seven games in a row without scoring more than 105. But at least they got into triple digits on Saturday (scored 101) after failing to do so each of the previous four games. The Cavs are in San Antonio tonight and we think this is a game that they can cover. Why? Well, the Spurs have dropped seven of their last nine games. They are coming off back to back losses in overtime, first to Atlanta (a 2OT game) and then to Indiana. Both losses came in San Antonio. This could end up being the most points the Spurs end up laying in any game all season. We think it’s too many. They are 6-10 ATS as home favorites and have been outscored in those games. They were favored in each of the last two games, including by 7 against Indiana, who was missing four key players and still found a way to score 139. That was the fourth time in the last seven games, all at home, that the Spurs gave up 132 points. Cleveland has a chance to win here. Take the points. Play on CLEVELAND

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This is a 10* on NO

We can’t believe this line is so low. Houston has lost 25 of its last 27 games. Now we know New Orleans, coming off back to back losses, has major injury concerns right now. Three starters, one of them Zion Williamson, missed both games of the back to back against Atlanta and Orlando. But no matter who is in the starting five Sunday night, we believe the Pelicans will be able to easily defeat the Rockets. For the record, Williamson is listed as questionable as is Brandon Ingram. Houston has not even been close in most of these losses. The last three have all been by 10 or more, meaning 15 of their last 19 games have resulted in a double digit defeat. The Rockets are 4-19 ATS at home this season. Still in the playoff race, New Orleans can’t afford to lose this game. We think they’ll pull the necessary pieces together to get the comfortable ‘W.’ Lay the points. Play on NEW ORLEANS

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This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE

Milwaukee looked darn impressive last night in their decisive 127-109 win in Portland. Giannis Antetokounmpo, in particular, shined. He shot 85% and scored 47 points. From inside the 3-point arc, Antetokounmpo was 18 for 18, tying a record set by Wilt Chamberlain. The Bucks were up by 24 in the third quarter and thus were able to coast the rest of the way. That’s important when playing the second night of a back to back like they are here. Sacramento should not provide much resistance. The Kings allow the most points per possession in the league, so it should be another big offensive night from “The Greek Freak” and company. The Bucks beat the Kings by 13 in late February, 128-115 and in doing so put up 70 points by halftime. It should be mentioned that Sacramento is also in the second night of a back to back here. Only they lost at home to the Lakers last night by 21! That’s just awful when you consider LA doesn’t have either LeBron James or Anthony Davis right now. The Bucks have the best point differential among Eastern Conference teams and third best overall. We like them to roll to a 10th straight victory over the Kings, who are 0-6 ATS this season coming off an upset loss as a favorite. Play on MILWAUKEE

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This is a 10* on BAYLOR

Houston did not defeat a single team seeded higher than 10th in its region. They faced 15-seed Cleveland State first, whom they destroyed, but have had close calls with Rutgers and Oregon State, who were seeded 10th and 12th respectively. In between they did easily beat 11-seed Syracuse. Still, that’s an amazingly easy run of opponents. Now they face Baylor, who has been considered the second best team in America most of this College Basketball season. Baylor has won all four NCAA Tournament games by at least nine points. They had a big lead on Arkansas in the Elite Eight. Really, the only close call was vs. Villanova. The Bears are a far more dynamic offensive team than anybody Houston has previously faced, not just in the Tournament but the whole season. The Cougars have faced just one top 30 team all year (Texas Tech) and that was back in November. The fact Baylor leads the country in three-point shooting percentage is key. With Houston, it’s a concern that they have not shot better than 39% in any of the last three games. Unlike when they faced those past opponents, it will take a good number of points for Houston to cover here. We don’t think they’re up to it. It seems destined that we’re headed for a Gonzaga vs. Baylor final and we will lay the points here with a team that has lost only two games all season, despite facing significantly better competition than Houston. Play on BAYLOR

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This is a 10* on PHILLY

Philadelphia has dropped two in a row, but they’ve got an ideal matchup here that should allow them to bounce back in a major way. Cleveland is the opposition as the Sixers wrap up a six-game road trip, which they began with three straight wins. The losses were to the Clippers and Nuggets and there is no shame losing to those teams, especially on the road. Cleveland has the worst point differential in the league, so there would be a lot of shame if the Sixers were to lose tonight. Fortunately, we know the Cavaliers are 7-19 against the spread against winning teams. They are also 0-4 ATS after being held to 85 points or less and are coming off a horrible 114-75 loss at Utah. That was the Cavs’ third straight loss and they were held under 100 points in all of them. The clincher here is that Philly is actually 0-2 vs. Cleveland this season, so they are going to be out for revenge. Having fallen behind Brooklyn in the race for the top spot in the Eastern Conference, the 76ers will have no mercy for their opponents tonight. They improve to 5-0-1 ATS their last six games as a road favorite. Play on PHILADELPHIA

This is an 8* on SACRAMENTO

These teams just played Monday. We had the Kings, who won “going away,” 132-115 as 2.5-point underdogs. That was their fifth straight win, a season-high. This win streak has also seen the Kings go 4-1 against the spread. We are presented with the same spread tonight and won’t be deviating from the previous script. San Antonio has certainly struggled of late. They’ve lost five of six overall and are just 12-17 vs. the Western Conference this season. (The only win in the last six games was against Chicago). During its five game win streak, Sacramento is averaging 120.4 points/game while giving up only 109.0. They’ve gone over 130 in two of the previous three, their two highest scoring games of the season.. Every starter scored at least 14 on Monday. When the Kings are off an upset win as an underdog (as they are here), there tends to be a no letdown as they’ve gone 8-4 ATS the next game. The Spurs have a losing SU record at home (11-14) this season and going back further, they have covered just 12 of 40 as home favorites. Play on SACRAMENTO

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This is a 10* on PHOENIX

The Hawks very well may be tiring as they’re about to play their sixth straight game on the road. After tonight, they’ve got two more before the trip ends. They’ve lost three of last three four and Monday’s 126-102 loss in Denver was the worst showing yet. We don’t like Atlanta’s chances here as they take on a Phoenix team that has been playing as well as any in the league over the last month or so. The Suns have lost only three times this month and are off a 3-1 road trip where the only loss was by one point. Defensively, they’ve been locked in. They just held Charlotte to 97 points in an overtime win on Sunday. Before that, they held Toronto to 100 points. The Suns are better at both ends of the floor, are at home and the Hawks are road-weary. We see no reason why NOT to lay the points. Play on PHOENIX

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This is a 10* on BAYLOR

Two of the teams Arkansas has beaten to get here were seeded 14 or lower. That’s quite atypical for a team in the Elite 8. In fact, it’s happened only one other time in the Tournament’s history (Florida in 2013). Furthermore, the Razorbacks have won by the narrowest of margins the last two games, beating Texas Tech 68-66 and Oral Roberts 72-70. They trailed almost the whole way against Oral Roberts (a 15-seed) before Davonte Davis made the game-winner in the final three seconds. We anticipate the Hogs having lots of trouble here against a Baylor team that leads the country in three-point shooting. Arkansas was lucky that Oral Roberts uncharacteristically struggled from deep. Baylor has had the harder path to get here, yet has looked more impressive in wins over Wisconsin and Villanova. We used them as our top Sweet 16 selection and they rewarded us there. The Bears are the top three-point shooting team in the country, but were just 3 for 19 from behind the arc against ‘Nova. They should improve here as Arkansas is only 138th in 3-point defense. The last two teams Baylor faced liked to play at very slow tempos, very different from Arkansas, but the Bears still are averaging 72.3 points per game in the Tournament. Baylor is the better team here and should send Arkansas packing quite easily. The Razorbacks won’t have the rebounding edge they enjoyed vs. Oral Roberts. Play on BAYLOR

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This is an 8* on SACRAMENTO

Sacramento looks for a season-high fifth straight win tonight as they invade San Antonio. The Spurs had LOST four in a row before they easily defeated the Bulls on Saturday night. A huge first half (led by 26 at the break) was critical to San Antonio’s success there. We see no such fast start taking place tonight. The Spurs are far too inconsistent to be counted on to play well in back to back games. They actually have a losing record at home. The Kings are 6-1 since St. Patrick’s Day, which has them thinking playoffs for the first time in over a decade. Desperate to end the NBA’s longest postseason drought, we don’t see this team throwing in the towel any time soon. While three of their last six wins have been by two points, we don’t care how many the underdog wins by tonight. Grab the points. Play on SACRAMENTO

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This is an 8* on FSU

Nine Big Ten teams made the NCAA Tournament. Eight bowed out in the first two rounds. The only one to make the Sweet 16 is top seed Michigan, who will play 4-seed Florida State. The Seminoles have looked pretty good so far in their two games, shooting 52% overall while holding the opposition right around 33%.. They never trailed against UNC Greensboro and were only briefly behind Colorado (early in the first half). All season long, the ‘Noles have defended well, allowing a 39.3 overall FG% which includes 32.3% from three. Michigan is a top 20 offense in FG% and top 10 in efficiency, but they’ll be missing second leading scorer Isaiah Livers and that is a significant loss. It’s not as if FSU isn’t impressive at the offensive end in its own right. They score 78 points per game, which is more than the Wolverines average for the year. Michigan trailed much of the way against LSU, a team with size and length similar to Florida State. FSU is better than LSU. Michigan doesn’t force many turnovers and that’s how you beat the Seminoles. The loss of Livers will loom large. Play on FLORIDA STATE

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This is an 8* on PHOENIX

We’re all out of answers when it comes to the question of “how” the Hornets are in 4th place in the East. Picked to finish near the bottom of the conference, Charlotte has won three straight to get to 23-21. They’ve beaten San Antonio, Houston and Miami during the win streak, but now things get much harder when Phoenix comes to town. The Suns have been great this year. They are second in the West, ahead of the Clippers and Lakers, and have lost only three times in the last month while winning 10. We really like the Suns to “stick it” to the Hornets this afternoon. Even though they didn’t make a basket in the final 3:50 Friday, Phoenix still was able to win vs. Toronto. Remember that Charlotte doesn’t have LaMelo Bell (injured), which is a huge loss. It’s unlikely Malik Monk is going to offer a repeat of his 32-point performance we saw Friday vs. Miami. The Hornets are just 7-13 SU/ATS vs. .500 or better teams. The Suns are 15-4 SU/ATS. Play on PHOENIX

This is an 8* on LA CLIPPERS

The Sixers lead the Eastern Conference with a 32-13 overall record, however both the Nets and Bucks are hot on their heels (within 2.5 games). The Clippers’ 30-16 overall record has them third in the Western Conference and four games back of first place Utah. Both teams come into Saturday having won four in a row. After a furious rally to beat Atlanta to start the week, LA swept two games in San Antonio, first using an awesome offensive display (scored 134 in the first game) then an awesome defensive display (allowed 85 in the second game). That makes it three double digit wins in the last four games. Philly has been fortunate to face Golden State (no Curry) and the Lakers (no LeBron or Anthony Davis) on their current road trip. They are still without Joel Embiid. The Clippers may not have Kawhi Leonard tonight, but we still like them at home. They ended up not having Leonard when we took them Thursday in San Antonio. Paul George showed he can carry the load as he had 24 points and 13 rebounds. The Sixers are a dominant home team, but only 13-9 on the road and that’s with three straight wins. Play on LA CLIPPERS.

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This is an 8* on SYRACUSE

The last six games have seen Syracuse go 5-1 and the only loss was by three. They are 6-0 ATS in those six games. Now they have a Sweet 16 appointment with Houston, a team on a nine-game win streak. But the Cougars almost didn’t get here as they barely got by Rutgers in the second round. Syracuse also won its Round of 32 game by only three points, but they were in better control throughout. Led by Buddy Boeheim (Jim’s son) averaging 28 points his last four games, the Orange offense has been lights out. Boeheim is shooting 60% those last four games and 55% from three-point range. In the NCAA Tournament, Syracuse has shot 55.3% and 51.9%. But their zone defense has been just as important to the success as unfamiliar opponents aren’t used to facing it. Expect Houston to struggle to make shots against the zone. They shot 37% against Rutgers and that’s why they were down nine with five minutes to go. In their last four wins, Syracuse has allowed the following field goal percentages: 33.9, 36.2, 35.8, 37.1. Tough to lose when your opponents aren’t shooting well. Syracuse at least covers and we give them a shot at winning as well. Play on SYRACUSE

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This is a 10* on BAYLOR

Baylor seems to be over his hangover from a 3-week (COVID-19) layoff, no? The Bears have beaten Hartford and Wisconsin pretty handily to get here and that win over Wisconsin was especially impressive. They basically led the whole way and were up by 18 at one point. They’ve shot the three well in both games, turned it over just four times vs. the Badgers and have played great defense throughout (59 points/game allowed). Villanova has only had to beat a 12 and a 13-seed to get here. They’ve been much better than people thought they’d be, but don’t forget Colin Gillespie is out. Our guess is this is where they miss their star point guard. The fact that the Wildcats play a similar style on offense compared to Wisconsin means Baylor won’t have to change the gameplan much. It’s all about forcing the opponent into taking jump shots and turning the ball over. Given ‘Nova doesn’t have Gillespie, turnovers are likely to be an issue in this one. By the way, Baylor is the best three-point shooting team in the country. Play on BAYLOR

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This is an 8* on DALLAS

Dallas has looked good of late in winning 14 of their last 19 contests. We had them Wednesday as they took out Minnesota 128-108. That was an easy cover as 8.5-point favorites and this should be as well as the Mavs are laying a short number at home to Indiana. The Pacers have struggled recently, losing 9 of 14 and they are an ugly 3-10-1 ATS in those games. They did beat Detroit 116-111 on Wednesday, but that is not something to brag about. They failed to cover the 7.5 point spread in that one. It’s difficult to see the Pacers keeping up with the Mavs tonight. Dallas has scored 260 points in its last two games. They are one blown lead in Portland away from coming into this game on a four-game win streak. Kristaps Porzingis looked dominant vs. the Timberwolves and Luka Doncic had another triple double. Indiana has covered only 3 of the last 14 times it’s been an underdog. Dallas is 5-1 ATS its last six home games. Play on DALLAS

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This is a 10* on LAC

The Clippers have strung together three straight victories, the last one coming last night here at the Alamo. They crushed the Spurs 134-101, a game in which they never trailed and were up 12 after the first quarter. It was LA’s 11th win of the season by 20 points or more. With the Lakers reeling right now, there is no excuse for the Clippers to finish any worse than third in the Western Conference and on paper, you’d probably like them over the top two teams (Utah, Phoenix) come playoff time. The Spurs are headed in the opposite direction as last night was their third straight loss. A 24-hour turnaround isn’t going to allow for them to make things much better tonight. Making things even worse is the fact the Clippers are a perfect 7-0 against the spread in the second night of a back to back. They’ve won those seven games this season by an average of 16.4 points per game. Six Clippers scored at least 13 points in last night’s win and the team shot 55% overall. We see no reason why this shouldn’t be another easy win for the road team. Play on LA CLIPPERS

This is an 8* on DALLAS

Dallas has been inconsistent this year, but they have what we consider “a favorable stretch” over the next week or so. A 40-point win in Portland on Sunday showed what the Mavs are capable of doing. They should have won twice in Portland over the weekend, but blew an eight-point fourth quarter lead on Friday and lost 125-119. Had they held on there, they’d be on a three-game win streak coming into this game at Minnesota. The Timberwolves are bad. They have the worst straight up record in the league at 10-33. They’ve lost two in a row and 13 of 16. Karl-Anthony Towns being bothered by a wrist injury doesn’t help matters. Nor does facing Dallas, who is 28-14 ATS at Minnesota their previous 42 visits. The Mavericks are 13-5 overall since Feb 6th with Luka Doncic playing very well of late. Already averaging career highs in both points and assists this season, Doncic has gone for 39 points, 7.3 points and 7.3 assists over his last three games. We look for a big win by the road team. Play on DALLAS

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This is a 10* on CHICAGO

Chicago is a team desperate to make the playoffs this season. In the Eastern Conference, that shouldn’t be that difficult but here we are on March 24th and the Bulls are four games below .500. That’s still good enough for ninth place, which would mean being involved in the play-in scenario, but the Bulls would certainly like to get themselves on “steadier ground” over the next month. Beating a sorry team like Cleveland is imperative in achieving that. The Cavaliers are actually better, record-wise, than three teams in the East. But they have the worst point differential in the entire league. On the road, the Cavs have been terrible with a 5-15 record (SU and ATS) and they’re getting outscored by an average of 13.5 points per game. The Bulls have not yet had a chance to play Cleveland this year and hosting them should mean a very easy win. It was a 25-point home loss on Monday, but that was to the Jazz. Cleveland also lost at home Monday, by 14 to Sacramento. This spread should be much higher considering the Bulls are 17-5 ATS when facing losing teams. Play on CHICAGO

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This is a 10* on KANSAS

Kansas is the higher seed, but an underdog to USC. We like the Jayhawks to cover (and thus almost certainly win) this second round battle. They scored 93 points against Eastern Washington, so it’s going to be much different here for USC than it was playing Drake, who shot only 19 percent in the second half Saturday. Going back to the beginning of February, Kansas has really been one of the best teams in the whole country. They’re 9-1 in the L10 games with the one loss coming by three points at Texas. We are really a bit shocked that they are the underdogs here. USC was lucky in the first round as they were playing a team coming off an exhausting win in the “First Four” just 48 hours earlier. Prior to defeating Drake, USC had just two wins over NCAA Tournament teams in its last 11 games and one of those was a giant comeback (vs UCLA) that they won by a single point. Kansas had four wins over NCAA Tournament teams during that same stretch, one of which was against top seeded Baylor. Play on KANSAS

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This is an 8* on OHIO

Creighton was not particularly impressive in a 63-62 win over Cal Santa Barbara on Saturday. We faded them and got the cash as the Gauchos were 7.5 point underdogs. Really, the Bluejays never really threatened to cover the spread and we thought UCSB kind of threw the game away late. Now it’s a chance to take the points against Creighton again, this time with Ohio, an upset winner in the first round over defending National Champion Virginia. The Bobcats were able to win that game despite shooting only 7 of 23 from behind the arc. Save for an ugly home loss to Buffalo on Feb 27, Ohio has been excellent the last two months. They are 10-1 the last 11 games, both straight up and against the spread. They’ve got two quality players in Ben Vander Plas and Jason Preston. The Bobcats’ ATS record in neutral site games is 5-0 in 2021 and considering that Creighton’s last three games have produced two wins by a total of three points and a loss by 25, taking the points here is a no brainer. We give Ohio an excellent shot at winning this game straight up. Play on OHIO

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This is a 10* on ORAL ROBERTS

Florida grinded out an OT victory against Virginia Tech in the first round. We had them on the money line, so that was a positive result for us. Oral Roberts still being alive is something very few could have predicted as they stunned 2-seed Ohio State, also in overtime. While the Eagles improbable run very well could come to an end on Sunday, we like them plus the points. Florida has major injury issues. Tyree Appleby left the Va Tech game with a facial laceration. Omar Payne got himself suspended (by the team) for dishing out a flagrant elbow in the SEC Tournament. Both are questionable for this game. Note this is all in addition to the team already playing without Keyontae Johnson, who collapsed on the court early in the season. Oral Roberts has the nation’s leading scorer in Max Abmas, who averages 24.2 points/game. He went for 29 against Ohio State. Florida isn’t as strong as Ohio State, even when at their healthiest, which they’re not right now. Oral Roberts has covered five straight games and this is too many points. Play on ORAL ROBERTS

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This is a 10* on BROOKLYN

After losing to Orlando Friday night, Brooklyn should bounce back tonight at home vs. Washington. The Nets actually are seeking double revenge in this matchup after losing twice to the Wizards back in January. Both games saw them blow big leads. With Washington off a shocking upset over Utah, all signs point to a “return to normalcy” Sunday evening. No team allows more points per game than the Wiz. No team scores more points per game than Brooklyn. The Nets can probably name their point total here as the Wizards have allowed an average of 125.6 points over their previous five contests. The Nets are still winners of 14 of the last 16 games (12-4 ATS) and the last time they were off a loss, they bounced back with an 11-point win in San Antonio. This matchup is far more favorable. James Harden has missed 31 of his last 36 three-point attempts. Think he might be “due” to go “off?” There’s no better opponent for him to do so than this one. Play on BROOKLYN

This is an 8* on TEXAS

We don’t see Texas, a 3-seed, having any difficulty getting by Abilene Christian in the first round of the NCAA Tourney and are quite shocked that this is a single digit spread. The Longhorns are 5-0 the last five games - both straight up and against the spread. They won the Big 12 Tournament, getting by the likes of Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, both of whom were winners yesterday. Abilene Christian hasn’t beaten anyone, well outside of the Southland Conference. They did play both Texas Tech and Arkansas relatively tough back in December, but the spotlight shines brighter this time of year. Every game during Texas’ current win streak was either on the road or at a neutral site. That’s impressive. Yes, we’re well aware of the fact the Longhorns have gone 0-9 ATS their previous nine Tournament appearances, seven of those coming as a favorite. But knowledge of that streak should have the players plenty motivated heading into the nightcap on Saturday. Look for the ‘Horns to win by double digits. Play on TEXAS

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This is a 10* on OKLAHOMA

Oklahoma has not been good at the pay window for a while now. Boomer Sooner hasn’t covered a game since a 91-90 upset win in Morgantown (West Virginia) all the way back on February 13th. The ATS losing streak is now at seven, but we think the Sooners got a good first round draw here with Missouri, who also sputtered down the stretch. Mizzou went from being ranked to somewhat of an also-ran in the SEC by losing six of its last nine games straight up. Two of the three wins were by two and three points, so their record could be even worse. It is crazy to think that both of these teams were ranked in the top 10 at the same time a little over a month ago. OU is going to be without its second leading scorer Saturday. But we can’t discount a team that beat four Top 10 opponents this year, three of them consecutively, despite being short-handed at times. One of those Top 10 teams that they defeated was SEC Champion Alabama. Four of the Sooners’ last five losses came by five points or less, so if they had some better luck there they would have ended up with a much higher seed. We just don’t like Missouri (nothing personal!) and want to fade them. The Tigers are 0-5 ATS their L5 Tournament games.  Play on OKLAHOMA

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This is an 8* on UCSB

It’s been a bad month for Creighton. Their head coach had to take a leave for making an insensitive remark to his players and when he came back to coach, the Bluejays promptly got run out of the gym by Georgetown in the Big East Tournament Final. That 25-point loss very well could have a carryover effect here as Creighton faces Cal Santa Barbara, a dangerous 12-seed that has won 18 out of its last 19 games. In the month of March, the Gauchos won four of their five games by 14 or more points. It’s going to be very tough for Creighton to gain any real separation in this matchup as they aren’t very good defensively. The Bluejays’ NCAA Tournament history is not good. They are 4-12 ATS in all Tourney games and lost their last three straight up. UCSB has won 20 or more games the last four seasons. So they are used to winning. We already saw one 12-seed win in this year’s Tournament. Grab the points in this one. Play on CAL SANTA BARBARA

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This is an 8* on EWU

There is no denying the fact Kansas closed the season strong. The Jayhawks will arrive at the NCAA Tournament having won eight of their last nine games. The one loss was by three at Texas. But they were forced to withdraw from the Big 12 Tournament because of a positive COVID-19 test and that kind of disruption can certainly have an adverse effect on the team here. Eastern Washington is the first round opponent and this isn’t your typical 14-seed. The Eagles have lost just once since mid-January, a span of 14 games. That one loss was by only five points. During this 13-1 stretch, they have averaged over 80 points/game. Leading scorer Tanner Groves shoots the ball very well. Kansas was only 7-7 away from Allen Fieldhouse this year and it’s no guarantee they win this game, let alone by any kind of serious margin. Three of their last four wins were by single digit margins. In its last five games, Eastern Washington gave up an average of 59 points on 38.5% shooting. They’ll keep it close. Play on EASTERN WASHINGTON

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This is a 10* on DENVER

Losses like the one the Bulls had Wednesday night are what could ultimately prevent this team from making the playoffs. Not making the postseason would be pretty bad considering how weak the East is this year and that 10 teams now get in because of the play-in scenario. So the bottom line is that the Bulls aren’t really a force to be reckoned with. Getting outscored 39-19 in the 4th quarter by the Spurs and losing 106-99 snapped a two-game win streak. Now the Bulls hit the road to face a Denver team that’s arguably playing its best basketball of the season. The Nuggets come in having won seven of eight. They’ve won by a combined 40 points in the last two games, beating both Indiana and Charlotte here at home. Chicago is pretty comparable to those teams, tbh, and while the Nuggets are now being asked to lay a larger spread, that shouldn’t be an issue considering they won by six in the Windy City earlier this month. Nikola Jokic had a monster game (39-14-9) against the Bulls, who are just 1-6 ATS their last seven trips to Denver. Play on DENVER

This is an 8* on TEXAS TECH

Texas Tech doesn’t have a very good ATS record, but they’ve suffered many tight losses to Big 12 teams. This is a short number against a team from the Mountain West, a conference that typically does not do well in the NCAA Tournament. The Red Raiders last two Tournament appearances have yielded runs to the Elite Eight and National Championship Game. The big problem for Utah State in this game is going to be turnovers. In three of their five losses, the Aggies turned it over an average of 17 times per game. Texas Tech is great at forcing TO’s, forcing the 29th most per game in the country at the eighth highest rate. Utah State topped 62 points once in its last four games. That’s not going to be enough to cover the spread Friday. The Aggies are just 1-5 ATS their last six NCAA Tournament games. Texas Tech is 5-1 ATS in its last six. Play on TEXAS TECH

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This is a 10* on COLGATE

Colgate has played just 15 games this season, but the champions of the Patriot League have quickly become one of the “trendy underdogs” to pull an outright upset in the opening round. We concur with the public viewpoint. While the Raiders did not play a single non-conference game in the regular season, they are on a 13-game win streak since suffering their only loss, which was by two points against Army. They are second in the entire country, averaging 86.3 points/game, which trails only Gonzaga. Every one of their wins has been by at least eight points. Arkansas just had a 12-game conference win streak snapped in the SEC Tournament. While the Razorbacks had a great year and are getting a lot of fanfare themselves, this is a team that hasn’t played a NCAA Tournament game since 2018. It’s going to take a lot of points to cover the spread in this one and we don’t see the Hogs doing it. Colgate shoots the three very well (40%) and that should keep them in the game. Coming off their first loss in over a month, we expect the favorite to struggle in this matchup. Play on COLGATE

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This is a 9* on FLORIDA (MONEY LINE)

Look for Florida to advance out of this 7 vs. 10 matchup. The Gators are making their fourth Tournament appearance under coach Mike White and they are one of only 18 teams in the country to rank top 40 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Tre Mann, who averaged 23 points over the team’s last four games, is the go-to scorer. Considering Florida lost three of those four games, Mann needs help. Look for him to get it from big man Colin Castleton. Virginia Tech, in addition to not having much Tournament experience, hasn’t been on the court much over the last month. COVID affected them about as much as any team in the Big Dance as the Hokies have played just three games since Feb 6th. Two of them were losses. They’ve lost three of their last five overall. The advanced metrics have simply not liked this team all year, despite some impressive non-conference wins. They are 1-4 ATS their last five games vs. teams with winning records and 6-13 ATS vs. teams with a win percentage of .600 or greater. Play on FLORIDA

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This is a 10* on WICHITA STATE

When Wichita State left the Missouri Valley to join the American Conference in 2017, Drake was probably like “good riddance.” After all, the Bulldogs had lost 11 straight times to the Shockers. Little did they know - four years later - they’d be running into their old MVC rivals in the “First Four” of the NCAA Tournament. Though these were two of the last teams to make it into the field, both had solid arguments for inclusion. Drake started 18-0 and at the time was the only remaining unbeaten besides Gonzaga and Baylor. Wichita State was regular season champ of the conference that included Houston. But we clearly side with the Shockers on Thursday. Drake has been without two of its top three scorers the last month. We know Roman Penn won’t play and leading scorer ShanQuan Hemphill may not either. Even if Hemphill does play, it will have been over a month since he last saw the court after suffering a broken foot. The Bulldogs have been an ATS machine this year, but it ends Thursday. The Shockers are 15-3 their last 18 games with one of the losses coming by one point. With the line jumping the fence, that’s even more value. Play on WICHITA STATE

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This is a 10* on NEW ORLEANS

New Orleans has recorded two consecutive blowout wins. The first saw them beat Cleveland 116-82. Given the Cavs stature in the league, you may not be all that impressed by that one. But what about the Pelicans shooting 65% and blitzing the Clippers 135-115 Sunday night? We had the Over in that game and were loving it as NO was up by 33 at one point. Zion Williamson has scored at least 20 points in 17 consecutive games. By the way, the shooting percentage from the Pelicans on Sunday was a new NBA season-high. We like their chances tonight in Portland as they face a Blazers team that’s trending in a different direction right now. Portland lost in Minnesota the other night, which was also the fourth straight game they did not cover the spread. They are only 4-6 SU the L10 games. While the majority of their recent outings have been closely contested affairs, no team in the league has suffered more 20+ point losses. CJ McCollum is set to return tonight, but after a two-month absence, it’ll take awhile for him to return to his “old self.” The Pelicans are looking for revenge as they lost by two at home to the Blazers last month. Play on NEW ORLEANS

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This is a 10* on TORONTO

Toronto is a better team than Charlotte. They are a bit short-handed right now due to COVID protocol and that is why they are getting points Saturday. Home court doesn’t mean much this season. The Hornets are just 10-8 in home games this year and that’s after a three-point win over a bad Detroit team Thursday. That same night, the Raptors appeared headed for victory as well. They led the Hawks by 15 in the final six minutes, but ended up losing on a buzzer beater. That was their third straight loss and fifth in the last six games. But we’ll go with them to bounce back here against a team they beat twice earlier in the season. Both wins were by just three points, but we’d take that here. It’s fair to say that the Hornets being in the top eight in the conference standings is a MAJOR surprise. It’s not just that they weren’t expected to do much. They’ve also given up more points in 2020-21 than they’ve scored. There have been three previous times this season when the Raptors have been on a three-game losing streak. They’ve responded by going 3-0 SU/ATS in the next game. They are 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS in this situation the last three years. Play on TORONTO

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This is a 10* on OKLAHOMA STATE

Oklahoma State is just about as anybody in College Basketball right now. The 12th ranked Cowboys come into the Big 12 Championship Game having won eight of their last nine games. They just avenged the one loss by beating top seed Baylor 83-74 Friday. That was their eighth consecutive cover as well. Texas’ path to the Tournament Final has been much easier. The Longhorns didn’t even have to play yesterday as Kansas was knocked out by a positive COVID-19 test. That was after escaping with a one-point win against Texas Tech in the quarterfinals. OSU covered both times they played Texas in the regular season. They lost by three in Austin (but were +7.5 in that game) and then won 75-67 in Stillwater, a game that went to two overtimes. Right now, you’ve got to ride these Cowboys as they seemingly are doing everything right. Not sure how the unexpected bye will affect Texas. They were down by 10 in both halves vs. Texas Tech. OSU has never been in that kind of danger in the tournament. The Longhorns are 3-9-1 ATS L13 as a favorite. Play on OKLAHOMA STATE

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This is a 10* on UC IRVINE

UC Irvine is a big favorite to move on to the Big West semis as it caught a lucky break and will face last place Cal Poly today. Cal Poly was an upset winner on Tuesday, 87-82 against CS Fullerton. It was their first win of any kind since January 29th. There were nine straight losses in between. Then you’ve got the fact that the two times the Mustangs faced UC Irvine, they lost by 23 and 19 points. They are 0-6 vs. UC Irvine the last three seasons. UC Irvine has won four straight and six of its last seven coming into the tournament. While Cal Poly got one day off between tournament games, UC Irvine has been off since Saturday. This figures to be quite the lopsided affair. Cal Poly had not won a single game away from home all year before Tuesday and they average just 58.6 points/game on their travels. Look for the favorite to win very big in this one. Play on UC IRVINE

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This is an 8* on SOUTHERN UTAH

Southern Utah comes into the Big Sky Tournament as the top seed, having gone 12-2 SU in the regular season. The Thunderbirds were a little lucky in that they played one fewer game than both Eastern Washington and Weber State, who were each 12-3. But that’s something to possibly “worry about” later as today’s game vs. 8-seed Northern Colorado should be a “breeze.” Northern Colorado had to win yesterday just to get here. They beat Sacramento State 90-83 thanks to a career-high 30 points from Bodie Hume, who was 7 of 10 on three-point attempts. The 90 points were also a season-high for the Bears. Southern Utah has not lost a game since January 21st. They have won nine straight games, seven of them by 10 or more points. They only lost three times all season and one of them was the season opener. The other two were on the road to the Big Sky’s other top two teams. This would be a mismatch even without SUU having the bye. Play on SOUTHERN UTAH

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This is a 10* on STANFORD

California is quite bad. Save for a shocking upset over Colorado on February 13th, they have not won since January 16th. They finished last in the conference after dropping their final four regular season games. In three of those four losses, they were held to 57 points or fewer. Stanford is the Bears’ first round opposition and it’s likely to be a short run in the Pac 12 Tournament (for Cal). The Cardinal won both regular season matchups, 70-55 at home and 76-70 on the road. Those games took place at the start of February. Cal has not played in nearly two weeks. It’s really difficult to see them “showing up” in Vegas with any incentive as they went 3-18 SU in league play. Outside of the four games where they were a home favorite (went 4-0), the Bears were 4-19 SU this season. Stanford is also on a four-game losing streak, but had a better year than Cal and should have a longer run in Vegas this week. Maybe they don’t make it far, but the Cardinal should easily make it to tomorrow with a win and cover here. Play on STANFORD

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This is an 8* on GEORGETOWN

The Big East Tournament gets underway Wednesday and here we have the 9-seed Marquette taking on the 8-seed Georgetown in the very first matchup. The lower seed is actually favored, which is not all that strange (it is an 8-9 matchup), but we disagree with it. Marquette has won four of its last five, but so had G’town before losing at UConn Saturday. That blowout loss seems to have had a direct influence on this line. Now Marquette was a 4.5 point favorite when these teams played (at Georgetown) in the lone regular season battle. But those who watched that game will recall that the Hoyas led by 16 at half. They came back to win by four, but G’town remembers and is out for revenge. The Golden Eagles failed to cover 14 of their first 20 games this season, before a relatively strong finish. They are 3-8 ATS off a straight up win. Georgetown is 4-0 ATS off its last four ATS defeats. Play on GEORGETOWN

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This is a 10* on LBSU

The Big West Tournament gets going today and while neither Long Beach State nor Cal State Northridge is expected to do much this week, we see a nice edge with the underdog in this Opening Round matchup. While it’s true that LBSU’s regular season ended with a four-game losing skid, three of those defeats were by two or three points. Had any of those games gone the other way, the Beach would be a higher seed. Now you can say the same for CS Northridge, who lost two close ones to UC Riverside last weekend. But what’s unusual here is CS Northridge is the favorite, something that has happened only two times this year. The line is clearly very small, but this isn’t a team I’d want to bet on to actually win a game. Long Beach State has an incredible six losses by three points or less on its resume, so they are probably better than their record. Neither of these teams is very good defensively, but LBSU has held its opponents to a much lower field goal percentage. They are 7-2 ATS off an ATS loss as well. Play on LONG BEACH STATE

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This is a 10* on BYU

Back on January 27th, BYU lost to Pepperdine. We don’t see them losing this time though. It should be more along the lines of their first meeting, which was four days before the second. BYU won that game by 11. The stakes are now higher as this is the semifinals of the West Coast Conference Tournament. A win here should solidify the Cougars as a NCAA Tournament team. They got the triple bye into the semis by virtue of fishing second and only behind Gonzaga in the regular season standings. Pepperdine finished third and so they had to beat Santa Clara on Saturday. That was a 78-70 win for the Waves as four-point favorites. They do a great job at defending the three-point line, but Pepperdine is pretty clearly the inferior side in this matchup. BYU has won four in a row by holding its opponents to a 39.2 FG%. Something to make note of is that Santa Clara was playing its third game in as many days when Pepperdine beat them. BYU is well rested coming into tonight and remembers the loss from two months ago. Their only other WCC losses (besides the one to Pepperdine) both were against Gonzaga. The majority of the wins came by double digits. Play on BYU

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This is a 10* on OREGON

There is no doubt that Oregon State has been a proverbial “thorn in the side” to the rest of the Pac 12. The Beavers are 13-1-1 ATS their last 15 games and 7-0 ATS the last 7. (They are 9-6 SU and 3-0 L3 during the same run). This run includes an upset of Oregon, in Eugene, back on January 23rd. But that 75-64 win as nine-point underdogs comes with an asterisk as the Ducks were not even close to full strength. They were down four starters because of COVID-19 and it was actually the only game they got in during all of January. Since getting back to full strength, Oregon has gotten on a roll. They’ve won 9 of 10, the only loss coming at USC. Wednesday’s 82-74 win over UCLA saw them shoot over 60% from the field and move into first place in the Pac 12. They can now clinch the 1-seed for the Pac 12 Tournament if they win tonight. Given the stakes and the revenge angle, the Ducks are a big play for us here. They are 10-1 ATS their L11 Sunday games. Play on OREGON

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This is an 8* on LIBERTY

This is the Tournament Final in the Atlantic Sun. Liberty has clearly been the best team in the conference all season. This entire tourney has taken place in Jacksonville. Liberty won its first two games by 10 (against Kennesaw State) and 13 (against Stetson). Those were the two lowest seeds in the tournament. North Alabama, the 5 seed, has pulled two upsets to get here, beating North Florida 68-68 (were +3) and Fla Gulf Coast 96-81 (were +2.5). The teams had Saturday off. There was a point late in the season that North Alabama had dropped seven in a row. Then they won the regular season finale against Lipscomb. Three straight upsets and playing with “house money” make them an interesting dog here, but the reality is they’ve got no shot Sunday. Liberty crushed them twice in the regular season, winning by identical 74-54 scores each time. The Flames have not lost since January 15th. I’m aware that Liberty has already punched its ticket to the NCAA Tournament as North Alabama is ineligible (transitioning to D-II). But they will want to head into the Big Dance off a convincing victory. Play on LIBERTY

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This is a 10* on VIRGINIA

Virginia got a win earlier this week, thus snapping a rare three-game losing streak. But that win Monday wasn't enough to satisfy the oddsmakers. The Cavaliers.only won by 11 at Miami and they were 15.5-point favorites. So that makes it four straight games where they have not covered. It’s always tough going to Louisville, but we feel the Cavaliers are definitely the better team here and will gladly lay a short number with them. Louisville has not played since last Saturday when it upset Duke. Even with that win, the Cardinals are just 4-4 their last eight games. They played only four games in February and Wednesday’s game vs. Va Tech was called off due to COVID. Virginia has had the Cardinals number, winning 11 of 13 against them under Tony Bennett. Louisville has a double bye (in the ACC Tournament) at stake here, which is why the line is so short. They are being overvalued due to circumstance as we don’t think Virginia takes it easy on them Saturday. Louisville is just 1-3 ATS as an underdog this season. They are also 1-8-1 ATS L10 following an ATS win. Play on VIRGINIA

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This is an 8* on FLORIDA STATE

Florida State appears to be the class of the ACC this season and can wrap up its second consecutive regular season crown with a win over Notre Dame on Saturday. This should prove not that difficult as the Fighting Irish have lost four games in a row. While three of those were on the road, the last one occurred right here in South Bend and it was by double digits to North Carolina State. Also concerning is that it was the fourth time in the last six games where the Irish gave up at least 80 points. FSU is one of the best offensive teams in the country, not just the best in the ACC. The Seminoles are averaging basically 80 points/game and they just hung 93 on Boston College in a blowout win Wednesday. That’s the same BC team that put up 94 on ND in a recent upset win. While three of the ‘Noles four losses have come on the road, those were all to GOOD teams. Even with senior M.J. Walker listed as questionable, they should be fine considering eight other players are averaging at least 14 minutes per game for one of the deepest teams in all of College Basketball. Play on FLORIDA STATE

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This is a 10* on LITTLE ROCK

Despite struggling mightily down the stretch, we think Little Rock is the better team here in this first round Sun Belt Tournament matchup. It’s not as if Appalachian State is playing any better. While Little Rock may be just 1-7 SU its last eight games, App State is 1-6 SU in their last seven. The difference is Little Rock is coming off a win, 69-59 against Louisiana, last Saturday. It was not a good year at the betting window for the Trojans (6-16 ATS), a clear sign of underachieving. Turning the basketball over too much has been a problem. But the team’s defensive numbers have steadily improved throughout conference play and they’ve got a big advantage in that regard in this particular matchup. Appalachian State allows its opponents an effective FG% of 52.3 and to shoot 52.6% on two-point attempts. Both are the highest marks in the Sun Belt. We find it very interesting that the Mountaineers have been bet to favoritism tonight as they’ve lost the game outright the last four times they’ve been chalk. There were no regular season meetings this year, but Little Rock did sweep a season ago. Play on LITTLE ROCK

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This is an 8* on NORTH TEXAS

These teams are jockeying for position in Conference USA’s West Division. Though they have different records, UAB and North Texas are technically tied for second in the division, one game behind LA Tech (whose regular season is done). So if either team sweeps this weekend (they play again tomorrow), then they move into a first place tie. Adding to the level of motivation here is the fact both teams are off losses. They’d each been hot prior to suffering those defeats. UAB was the victim of some hot shooting against UTEP last Saturday as they gave up 96 points. The loss dropped the Blazers to 3-4 SU L7 games after they’d won six in a row. North Texas lost by 1 at Marshall on Saturday, but still covered and is on a 4-game ATS win streak and as well as 8-2 SU L10 games. We’re siding with the home team tonight. It’s not just that the Mean Green have an 8-1 SU record here in Denton. They are winning by an average of 22.6 points/game! UAB is not a good three-point shooting team while North Texas shoots an incredible 44.6% from behind the arc at home. Lay the short number! Play on NORTH TEXAS

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This is a 10* on DENVER

Denver is simply a lot better than Indiana right now. The Pacers only barely scraped by Cleveland last night, winning 114-111 thanks to a fourth quarter comeback. T.J. McConnell set a record with nine first half steals and the Pacers shot 56.6% as a team. Yet they still could only win by three against one of the worst teams in the league. Now, without rest, they are facing a team that just destroyed Milwaukee by 31 points - on the road! The Nuggets now look to make it four straight road wins heading into the All Star Break. They also won in Oklahoma City by 30 and we had them when they snuck by Chicago. There are only four teams in this league that have a better point differential than the Nuggets. Indiana is clearly not one of them. The Pacers are 0-7 ATS their last tries as an underdog and have failed to cover five straight overall. Their starters played heavy minutes last night. They certainly aren’t likely to shoot as well here as they did last night and that means trouble facing a team that has Nikola Jokic and is shooting almost 55% its L3 games. Play on DENVER

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This is a 10* on KANSAS

Kansas floundered a bit in January and as a result took a rare tumble out of the Top 25. But by punctuating a 7-2 February with a win over Baylor, there is no denying that Bill Self’s team is now peaking at the right time. The number of points per possession they’ve allowed over the last five games is the best defensive stretch by any team this year against “high-major teams.” Strangely, KU will close its regular season with a non-conference game against UTEP. The Miners probably regret adding this game to the schedule as they’ve got little chance of winning. While they’ve won four-straight Conference USA games, Florida International and Charlotte are not in the same class as Kansas. Having run the Big 12 gauntlet, this will be the easiest opponent the Jayhawks have played in a LONG time. UTEP isn’t a good road team. Earlier in the year, they lost by 30 at North Texas. Yikes. Play on KANSAS

This is an 8* on IOWA STATE

Texas Tech has seemingly put a three-game losing streak behind them. The Red Raiders have gone 2-0 over the last five days, beating Texas 68-59 and TCU 69-49. They covered the spread in both of those wins and now are ranked #18 in the country. They’ve got a big game on deck, at Baylor on Sunday. But first they’ve got to round out the home portion of the schedule as Iowa State pays a visit to Lubbock tonight. It has been a tough year for the team from Ames. They have not won a single Big 12 game all season (0-16!) and haven’t tasted victory since before Christmas. But they’ve been close many times. They only lost by five at Baylor on Feb 23 and then by four against TCU on Saturday. A game vs. Texas on Tuesday was a 14-point loss. Since the beginning of February, half of the Cyclones' losses have been by seven points or fewer. So they are competing. We expect them to compete tonight in what should be a “flat spot” for a Texas Tech team that’s only 5-10 ATS in Big 12 games. Play on IOWA STATE

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This is an 10* on GOLDEN STATE

Golden State is off a loss and Portland is off a win. But the road team (Golden State) opening as the favorite to win tonight should tell you a lot about this matchup. The Warriors had won three in a row (for the first time this season) before losing to the Lakers Sunday night. Meanwhile, Portland was on a four-game losing streak before beating Charlotte Monday. Injuries have certainly impacted both sides in 2020-21 but it feels as if Portland is hurting more right now with Zach Collins, Jusuf Nurkic and CJ McCollum all out. Of course, Golden State doesn’t have Klay Thompson, but Draymond Green will play Wednesday. These teams split a couple of games in Oakland last month, each winning in blowout fashion. Why we like the Warriors is that the Blazers simply cannot be trusted to play good defense. They are third to last in the league in number of points allowed per possession. We “smell” a big game coming from Steph Curry tonight as the Warriors are 8-3 ATS their L11 games as a favorite plus 6-2 ATS their L8 following a SU loss.  Play on GOLDEN STATE

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This is an 8* on CLEMSON

This will be Syracuse’s final regular season game. Clemson has one more, at home vs Pittsburgh on Saturday. The Tigers are on a five-game win streak, one of those coming against Syracuse as they beat them 78-61 as a three-point favorite in Death Valley on Feb 6th. The team’s last two wins have come against the bottom teams in the ACC, Wake Forest and Miami. They looked especially impressive against Wake, on the road, winning that one 60-39. Clemson continues to be one of the top defensive teams in the country, ranking 11th in efficiency. Syracuse just outlasted North Carolina 72-70 on Monday, but they are at a disadvantage here playing their second game in three days. Clemson last played Saturday. In the first half of the first meeting, Syracuse made only three field goals. So they are familiar with the Tigers’ defensive prowess. The Carrier Dome will not be enough for the Orange to overcome a tough opponent today. They are just 2-5 ATS this season coming off an ACC win. Clemson wants that double-bye in the ACC Tournament.  Play on CLEMSON

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This is a 10* on INDIANA

Within one week, Michigan State pulled three consecutive upsets, two of them coming against top 5 teams (Ohio St, Illinois). However, the schedule finally appeared to catch up with them on Sunday when they fell behind Maryland 11-0 on their way to a 73-55 road loss. The Spartans have largely been overrated by the oddsmakers much of the season. They are 7-16 ATS and that record was obviously a lot worse before the three straight upsets. The first of the three upsets was not against a top 5 team, it was against Indiana. Sparty won that game in Bloomington 78-71 as a 6.5-point underdog. But they are not an underdog this time. This is a problem because as a favorite, MSU is a disastrous 2-11 ATS. Just how much the line has shifted for this rematch is a bit perplexing to us. Indiana badly needs this win to get on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble. They’ve lost three in a row and their second leading scorer is out. So that’s probably why the home team is favored in this one. But we’ve still got the Hoosiers rated as the better team and home court advantage doesn’t mean all that much. Grab the points. Play on INDIANA

This is a 10* on ATLANTA

So Atlanta has made a coaching change, firing Lloyd Pierce after a very disappointing run where the team lost 11 of its last 15 games. The Hawks now sit 11th in the East, two games out of the 8th and three games back of Miami, the team they’ll face tonight. The Heat are trending in the opposite direction with a 6-0 straight up and against the spread record the last six games. They just beat Atlanta 109-99 on Sunday, which got Pierce fired. Before that, the Heat even beat the Jazz. But despite this recent form, the Heat still have a worse point differential than the Hawks this season. Miami has a losing record in conference play and a 5-14 record when losing the rebounding battle. Atlanta generally rebounds the basketball well. They actually outrebounded Miami Sunday. But Trae Young had a poor shooting night. Look for him to shoot better tonight and the rest of the team to play inspired following the change on the bench. Miami is just 3-7-1 ATS its last 11 as a home favorite. Play on ATLANTA

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This is an 8* on BAYLOR

For the first time all year, we’ve got Baylor coming off a loss. The Bears went down at Kansas on Saturday, losing 71-58 as a 4.5 point favorite. It was only their second game since a 21-day absence due to COVID. Quite frankly, the #3 ranked team in the country has not looked good in either game. They could barely beat the last place team in the Big 12, Iowa State, in the first game back. Tonight they have to head to Morgantown to face West Virginia, who is ranked #6 in the latest AP Poll. We think it was probably unfair to drop Baylor a spot based on one loss, though that move was pretty predictable. West Virginia is good, but we just don’t think they are the sixth best team in the country. They are 0-3 vs. top five opponents this season. They did win by 22 on Saturday, but that was vs. Kansas State. Baylor had its worst offensive game of the season against Kansas and was outrebounded pretty badly as well. But we expect the shots to start falling again and them to resemble the team that looked so dominant pre-layoff. Play on BAYLOR

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This is a 10* on DENVER

Denver should probably be higher than seventh in the West as only four teams in the conference have a scoring differential. The Nuggets haven’t done well in games where the oddsmakers expect a lot of scoring, going 0-6 ATS when the total is 230 points or higher. While the total could close that high again tonight in Chicago, the Nuggets are coming off a 30-point win in Oklahoma City and should easily make it back to back wins. The Bulls are improved, but could only score 97 in a home loss to Phoenix on Friday. Most of their recent victories have been against bad teams. In fact, they are just 4-11 straight up when the opponent is .500 or better. The Bulls were supposed to play against Toronto yesterday, but COVID protocol prevented that game from happening. While this is no longer the second night of a back to back, look for Chicago’s rhythm to be disrupted. There’s too much talent to ignore with this Nuggets team as Jamal Murray is averaging 30.1 points his last nine games and Nikola Jokic just put up his eighth triple double of the season. Play on DENVER

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This is a 10* on UNC

North Carolina invades the Carrier Dome Monday night, looking to build off its impressive upset of #11 Florida State over the weekend. Now the Tar Heels have struggled on their travels this season, failing to cover seven of nine games while winning just three straight up. But Syracuse is reeling. The Orange dropped two road games last week and allowed 169 points to Duke and Georgia Tech. They had their doors blown off in the Duke game as they trailed 52-34 at halftime. They allowed another 50-point half Saturday in Atlanta, though this time it was the second. We know UNC can score (82.3 PPG L4) and they should have no problem doing so tonight. It was an 81-75 win for the Tar Heels when these teams played in Chapel Hill on January 12th, even though it was a poor shooting night. This is a team that probably deserves to finish in the top four in the ACC. We see their rebounding edge as the difference maker tonight. Play on NORTH CAROLINA

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This is a 10* on IOWA

This is some tough scheduling for Iowa, who just had to go to Michigan (lost 79-57) and now must travel to face another Top 10 opponent, Ohio State. But let’s not forget the fact that the Hawkeyes are a Top 10 team themselves despite being only 5-5 their last 10 games. Ohio State is not just off one loss, but two, as they lost to Michigan last Sunday and then Michigan State on Thursday. This is a revenge game for Iowa as they lost by four at home to the Buckeyes last month. Both teams are dealing with injuries, so look for Iowa to lean heavily on Player of the Year candidate Luke Garza, who averages 24.3 points/game. He had only 16 against Michigan on what was a bad shooting night for the Naismith Finalist. He’ll bounce back here. OSU is a better matchup for Iowa than most other Big 10 teams. Neither of these two are all that great defensively, which should play right into the hands of the Hawkeyes, who are top five in the country in scoring. They did lead at the half in the first meeting before letting things slip away. Not this time. Play on IOWA

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This is a 10* on CLIPPERS

It's a heavyweight matchup Sunday afternoon on ABC with the Clippers taking on the Bucks. Both teams are currently trying to chase down the top spot in their respective conferences. In the East, Milwaukee only trails Philadelphia by 1.5 games (after the Sixers lost Saturday) and is eventually going to pass them. We’re not as certain about the Clippers catching the insanely hot Jazz, but being only 3.5 (games) back of Utah right now (given how hot the Jazz have been) isn’t a bad place to be. We’re siding with LA in this one as not only are they 4-2 SU/ATS in the six games they’ve been underdogs in, but the Bucks are short-handed with Jrue Holliday and Jaylen Adams both in COVID protocol and DJ Augustin out for personal reasons. Don’t think they can count on Donte DiVincenzo scoring a career-high 24 points again like he did vs. New Orleans on Thursday. It wasn’t too long ago that Milwaukee lost five in a row. The Clippers are basically at full strength (only missing Patrick Patterson) and had seven players finish in double figures last time out. Play on LA CLIPPERS

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This is an 8* on MEMPHIS

While it may be “too little, too late” (to get into the NCAA Tournament), Memphis is making a late run at things. Penny Hardaway’s team has won seven of its last eight (only loss by 2 points) and four straight to get to 13-6 on the year. The Tigers are also 7-1 ATS their last eight after being 0-7 ATS their previous seven games. Today they are locking horns with Cincinnati, who has won six of its last seven. So we’ve got two relatively “hot” teams here, yet the one playing on the road is the favorite. That should tell you “all you need to know” about this one. The Bearcats are 0-9 ATS their last nine Sunday games including a 38-point loss at Houston last week. Before they beat Tulane 91-71 on Friday, Cincy’s previous five wins were all by three points or less, so they’ve been lucky. Memphis is #2 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency as it is holding opponents to 26.6% shooting - for the year - on three-point attempts. The Bearcats third leading scorer David DeJulius just opted out for the rest of the season. Play on MEMPHIS

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This is a 10* on ALABAMA

Alabama is off a loss here. While no team ever WANTS to be in that situation, it always seems to motivate the Crimson Tide. They’ve yet to lose back to back times this season. While the last time they found themselves off a defeat, they managed to only win by three (at South Carolina), we think they’ll do better today at Miss State. The Tide beat this team by eight in Tuscaloosa earlier this year. Miss State has turned in two straight wins, but they are just 5-6 SU L11 games and have basically been playing the bottom of the SEC recently. Bama is at the top and today is their second chance to clinch the regular season title outright. They failed Wednesday at Arkansas, but that was a hot team they were facing there. Still, the Tide did lead by six in the second half before falling apart down the stretch and committing a ton of fouls. A -35 disadvantage at the charity stripe certainly helps explain a 13-point loss. Miss State is 1-6 ATS off its previous seven straight up wins. Play on ALABAMA

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This is an 8* on ARKANSAS

Unquestionably, Arkansas is the hottest team in the SEC right now. The Razorbacks have won their last eight conference games and now sit in second place, 2.5 games back of the team they just beat, Alabama. It was 81-66 on Wednesday here in Fayetteville, a game where we cashed the Under. Though the Under did hit (thanks to Bama scoring only 28 points in the second half), it was the third time in the last four games where the Hogs finished with more than 80 points. Today is a legit revenge game for them as they lost down in Baton Rouge to LSU 92-76 last month. Though they too can score, LSU has been having major defensive issues since they beat Arkansas. In seven of the nine games since, they’ve allowed at least 76 points. In three of the last four, they allowed 80 or more. They sit at 153rd in defensive efficiency, easily the worst among the top 60 teams in the country in the KenPom ratings. The Tigers just lost 91-78 at Georgia on Tuesday and this certainly does not feel like the game where they’ll get the defensive issues fixed. Arkansas is 12-4 ATS as a favorite. Plato n ARKANSAS

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This is a 10* on UL Lafayette

Arkansas Little Rock shouldn’t be favored here as they’ve lost six in a row while also going 0-6 ATS. Louisiana has the most efficient offense in the Sun Belt Conference and has averaged 82 points while winning its last two games. Arkansas Little Rock’s combination of shooting the ball so poorly from behind the three-point line (31.8% for the year) and turning it over too much (23 times last game) is really starting to catch up with them. They are 3-11 ATS as a favorite this year (5-15 ATS overall), so again we just don’t get this line even if the game is being played in Little Rock. Louisiana is 5-2 ATS as an underdog. When the teams met twice earlier in the year in Lafayette, each won once. But Arkansas Little Rock’s win came in overtime and saw them have to come back from a significant deficit. Take the hotter team in this one. Play on LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE

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This is a 10* on NEW ORLEANS

You don’t see the Bucks lose five in a row very often, but that’s exactly what they did in an eight-day span (2/10-2/18) earlier this month. They have since “course-corrected” with three consecutive victories at home, all of them coming against what could objectively be called “bad teams” (Oklahoma City, Sacramento, Minnesota). Those are probably the three worst teams in the West, for the record. New Orleans is fifth from the bottom in that conference, but we’d say they’re also in a different class from the Bucks’ three previous opponents. A thrilling come from behind win on Sunday against the Celtics showed what the Pelicans are capable of doing. Then they prevailed again last night, beating Detroit 128-118. This team can definitely score as they’ve hit the 120 mark in five of their last eight games. That kind of offensive production makes it awfully difficult to cover against them when the spread is this large. The Pelicans had a season-high 74 points in the paint last night, led by Zion Williamson’s 32. NO is 5-2 ATS its last seven games as an underdog. Play on NEW ORLEANS

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This is a 10* on COLORADO

Colorado hosts USC tonight in a crucial clash as it tries to stay alive in the Pac 12 race. Saturday saw the Buffaloes prevail 61-57 against Oregon State. While it was an ATS loss, they’re probably just happy to be done with a four-game road trip that saw them go just 2-2 straight up. Now CU gets to play a home game for the first time in 17 days. The last one was a 78-49 win (over Oregon State) and the Buffaloes are 8-1 in Boulder this year, scoring 80.1 points/game while allowing an average of only 61.4. They host USC, who happens to be in first place in the conference. But Colorado already beat the Trojans once this year, 72-62 as a 3.5-point underdog, and that was obviously out in Southern California. Even more impressive is the fact the Buffaloes have won five in a row over the Trojans. They’re 4-1 ATS in those five wins as well. Despite being unranked Colorado is the favorite here. USC is #19 in the polls. Too many bettors get “caught up” in what the pollsters have to say. But we believe Colorado is the better team in this matchup. They showed it once and are certainly capable of showing it again at home. Play on COLORADO

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This is an 8* on HOUSTON

It was last Thursday when we decided to fade Houston at Wichita State and sure enough the 6th ranked (at the time) Cougars were upset there, losing 68-63. They had a nice bounce back from that game though, clobbering Cincinnati on Sunday by the score of 90-52. So they come into tonight’s game with Western Kentucky ranked #12 in the nation. It’s notable that this is another home game. All three times the Cougars have lost this season, it has been on the road. They are 12-0 at home. They average 81.0 points/game here and give up only 54.2. The more interesting thing about this matchup is that it’s a rare non-conference game late in the regular season. It’s the reality of the season we’re living in as WKU is trying to add games to its schedule to make up for all the cancellations. While they come in riding a six-game win streak, the Hilltoppers have not faced a team anywhere near as good as Houston in Conference USA. They’ve been off for 12 days and played just two games - both vs. Rice - in the month of February. We’d say they are “ill-prepared” to deal with this massive jump up in class. Play on HOUSTON

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This is an 10* on FLORIDA STATE

So it’s Florida State that’s battling Virginia for that top spot in the Atlantic Coast Conference. The Seminoles have played three fewer games than the Cavaliers and are ahead on percentage points with a 9-2 SU league record. They’re up to #11 in the rankings after winning not just three in a row, but also eight of the last nine games. Their ATS record in those nine games is a solid 6-2-1. Five of the wins during that time have been by at least 13 points and one of the most lopsided was 81-59 at Miami, who the Noles face again on Wednesday. The Hurricanes are having a terrible 2020-21 season as they’ve lost seven of eight. The only win was by two against Duke. This slide is a direct result of being one of the most short-handed teams in the country right now. Only five scholarship players finished the last game, which was a 27-point home loss to Georgia Tech. They trailed by 30 at halftime. FSU is one of the deepest teams in the country and got 33 points from its bench in Saturday’s win over Pitt. They should have zero difficulty blowing out Miami for a second time this year. Play on FLORIDA STATE

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This is a 10* on CHICAGO

The Bulls have climbed into the top eight in the East by virtue of two consecutive victories. Now they’re still two games below .500, so this is hardly the halcyon days of the Jordan era. Still, a franchise that has not made the postseason four of the previous five years will “take it.” Chicago is also in a much better place than tonight’s opposition, Minnesota, who has the worst record in the entire NBA and lost five in a row. The Timberwolves played last night and got torched 139-112 at Milwaukee. So the situation here is hardly in their favor. It’s pretty rare that you can get away with laying such a short number like this against the T’wolves. So we’ll jump at the opportunity as the Bulls should have no problems scoring tonight. They’ve put up 120+ points in the last two games and just beat Houston by 20. They’re 11-5 ATS this season if they scored 115 or more in their last game. They’re also 11-4 ATS against the Western Conference and 12-5 ATS against sub-.500 teams. The bottom line is the Bulls are “looking” like a playoff team in 2021 and we think they’ll play like it tonight. Play on CHICAGO

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This is an 8* on VIRGINIA

Virginia got upset by Duke over the weekend and has dropped to #15 in the country. But an ACC regular season crown is still in play for the Hoos and we think they’ll bounce back tonight in a major way. They face North Carolina State, who is really no match. Compounding problems for the Wolfpack is that this is their third straight away game. While they’ve won the first two, those wins came against Pitt and Wake Forest, who are two of the conference’s lesser teams. Virginia is 10-0 at home and those 10 wins are by 16.8 points per game. The Cavaliers aren’t just off one loss here, they’ve lost two straight as they also fell at Florida State last Monday. They were 15-3 SU before that and we see a “shut down” defensive effort coming tonight. Virginia is top seven in the country in points/game allowed and only gives up 57.2 here at home. They already won in Raleigh this season and held NC State to just 57 in that game. Play on VIRGINIA

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This is a 10* on PRAIRIE VIEW A&M

Prairie View A&M is one of two teams with a 7-0 record in SWAC play, Jackson State being the other. The Panthers have a shot to reclaim first place all for themselves tonight when they host conference lightweight Arkansas Pine Bluff. This should be an easy win for the Panthers, who already defeated Arkansas Pine Bluff by 17 on the road earlier in the season. Arkansas Pine Bluff has now lost nine in a row and is coming off two straight games that they could have won (lost by a total of three points). The Golden Lions may very well be spent and it’s going to take a lot to compete Tuesday night. Our guess is that they simply don’t have enough “left in the tank,” even though they’ve been off for 10 days. They lost in OT to Southern and the game before that they blew a sizable second half lead at Alabama A&M. Prairie View A&M is on fire right now as not only are they 7-0 straight up vs. conference opponents, they are also 7-0 against the spread! The seven wins have been by an average of 17.7 points/game. Arkansas Pine Bluff is getting outscored by 24.5 points/game on the road where it is 1-14. Play on PRAIRIE VIEW A&M

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This is a 10* on Alabama A&M

We’re going DEEP into tonight’s College card to uncover a winner. This is the SWAC, a league where two teams have no conference losses. These are neither of those two teams. Alabama A&M is 6-3 this season (4-3 in conference), but coming off a 72-58 loss at Alabama State nine days ago. Nine days ago is also the last time Alcorn State played, although they won 70-56 against Miss Valley State and snapped a three-game losing streak. Miss Valley State is a terrible team, maybe the worst in the country. They account for half of Alcorn State’s four victories this year and another was against Arkansas Pine-Bluff, the second worst team in the SWAC. We relish this opportunity to go against the Braves here. Play on Alabama A&M

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This is a *10* on VALPO

Not a lot of scoring or winning from either of these two MVC sides recently. But Valparaiso did just turn in an impressive effort in defeat, losing by just two at first place Loyola Chicago. While they’ve got just two wins in the last eight games, two of the Crusaders' six losses have been by three points or fewer. They’re a game up on Southern Illinois, who has just three wins in its last 12 games and two of those were by a total of three points. So we’ll ride the better team Sunday as they should build off that impressive showing against Loyola. Additionally, Valpo performed quite well against the league’s other top team, Drake, beating them by 17 points back on Super Bowl Sunday after only losing by three the previous day. Southern Illinois, on the other hand, has suffered three double digit losses in the past 11 days. SIU has been missing its leading scorer for almost two months, which helps explain the downturn. They’ve averaged only 55 points the last four games. Play on VALPARAISO

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