This is a 10* on ATLANTA

Before the season started, we identified Atlanta as a possible “sleeper” team in the Eastern Conference. Sure enough, the Hawks got off to a 4-1 start and were “flying high.” But they came crashing down with a surprise home loss to Cleveland Saturday night and that should have them ready to rock when they host another bad team, the Knicks, Monday night. Prior to coming up short vs. the Cavs, the Hawks only loss was by four points at Brooklyn. Their only non-cover came in an eight-point win against the Pistons. They were 11-pt chalk vs. Detroit and that’s what we think the line should be here, so it’s a real bargain on the home side. The Knicks have pulled some shocking upsets already, the latest was them winning as a 10-point dog at Indiana on Saturday. But when they lose, they lose big. All three losses this season have come by double digits. Something to keep in mind with Atlanta is they had a 15-point lead against Cleveland before a sloppy second half led to them giving the game away. This is the Knicks’ 4th straight game on the road and we don’t see them having much left in the tank. Play on ATLANTA

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This is an 8* on OREGON STATE

Dangerous spot for Stanford to be laying points here. This is the second road game in three nights and they are off a 73-56 loss to Oregon. Oregon State has won three straight and their 5-3 WL record is a bit misleading as all three Beavers’ losses were by four points or fewer. They are eight points away from having a perfect 8-0 SU record, so we will gladly take the points Monday afternoon in Corvallis. OSU was a 73-64 winner on Saturday against Cal. Defensively, the Beavers have been stout, allowing more than 64 points in only two games thus far. Stanford has covered only three games all year and is 0-2 ATS when playing with one or zero days rest. Senior guard Daejon Davis did not play on Saturday and is listed as questionable for this one. Play on OREGON STATE

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This is a 10* on SMU

This was “supposed” to be a battle of unbeatens, but #5 Houston “ruined” that when they went out and got beat 65-64 by Tulsa last Tuesday. Now the Cougars are not only off a loss, but playing for third straight time on the road and it’s against 6-0 SMU, who is not ranked but obviously still undefeated. The Mustangs have enjoyed a strong home court edge here at Moody Coliseum, winning 29 of their last 39 games here. While having the home court edge in 2021 isn’t what it “used to be,” we still look for SMU to keep its unbeaten run going Sunday night. They are 5-1 ATS after beating Temple Wednesday and defeated Houston last year, 73-72, here at home. Houston has not shot well the last two games (below 36.0 FG%) and that’s a problem when facing a SMU squad that comes in averaging 84.2 points/game. Three straight road games is always tough, especially when the third is against a quality foe. Laying points here sounds bad, so we’ll take ‘em! Play on SMU

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Play on WESTERN ILLINOIS

We’re digging deep into the Saturday card with a play from the Summit League. These are hardly two of the better performing teams from this conference, but what we have here is a not-so-good team laying points on the road. North Dakota State has played the likes of Kansas, Creighton and TCU pretty tough so far. But now they’re a favorite for just the third time this year and first time on the road. The Bison’s two victories have been by a total of eight points. So they are not a team you’d want to back in this situation. Western Illinois has yet to play a conference game (NDSU has played three). The Leathernecks have generally been competitive, except for when they faced Iowa (season opener) and Depaul (last game). While they may not have liked it, getting blown out by Iowa is fine. As for the loss to Depaul, it was their third straight road game and right before the Holidays. This will be just the second game in Macomb for the Leathernecks and we like them getting points against a team that’s shooting only 40.2% from the field thus far. Play on WESTERN ILLINOIS

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This is a 10* on IOWA

Iowa is a very good basketball team. That should be obvious by their #10 ranking. You don’t get that high in the polls by being mediocre. But we think the Hawkeyes happen to be even BETTER than that #10 ranking and they’ll show it Saturday at Rutgers. Iowa comes in at 8-2 while averaging 94.3 points per contest. One of the losses was to #1 Gonzaga and the other was in overtime. Last Tuesday they took care of #19 Northwestern 87-72. Now it’s another ranked opponent, this one on the road. But is Rutgers really as good as its #14 ranking? We don’t think so. They did beat Illinois here in East Brunswick, NJ. After that was their only loss of the year, which was on the road (Ohio State). The Scarlet Knights bounced back by beating Purdue Tuesday. Iowa is the best team they will have faced. The Hawkeyes do not turn the ball over much (4th lowest rate in the country) and Rutgers doesn’t turn their opponents over much. Iowa is #1 in the country in offensive efficiency. They are 7-2 all-time vs. Rutgers. Play on IOWA

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This is a 8* on NEVADA

Similar to the San Diego-San Francisco matchup, the favorite for this game has been far more “active” in the early part of the season. Nevada has played eight games compared to only five for New Mexico. The Wolf Pack could only manage a split of two home games vs. Air Force, losing the second one by two points despite being an 11.5-point favorite. They are back in the favorite role tonight, and for good reason as New Mexico just lost twice in a row at Boise State. Those losses were by 24 and 37 points. Two of the Lobos' three wins this year came against non-Division I opponents that go by the names of Our Lady of the Lake and Letorneau. Not exactly NCAA Tournament resume builders! Don’t care that this game is in Albuquerque as Nevada is a perfect 5-0 ATS the past five times it has been a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. New Mexico is just 11-24 ATS vs. teams with winning records and has lost three straight times to Nevada - all by double digits. Play on NEVADA

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This is a 10* on TORONTO 

Toronto is 0-3, both straight up and against the spread, but here comes the Knicks to rectify that problem. Now the Knicks have won two straight including a shocking upset of Milwaukee. So the Raptors need to take this game seriously. Given their record, you have to think they will. They have beaten the Knicks eight consecutive times. New York is going to be really short-handed for this one due to multiple injuries. A near skeleton crew playing on the road on New Year’s Eve probably isn’t going to bring out the best effort from them. The 130 points they scored against Milwaukee was a fairly “head-scratching” performance while the other win was “only” against lowly Cleveland, who shot 36.4% from the field. The Knicks lost by double digits each of the first two games. We know the Raptors aren’t able to play in Toronto yet (home games are in Tampa, FL for now), but this is one they badly need as they seek to avoid their worst start to a season in a decade and a half. Play on TORONTO

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This is an 8* on HOUSTON

A lot of drama in Houston (COVID, James Harden) has resulted in an 0-2 start, but the Rockets should finally blast off tonight against Sacramento. The Kings are beating the odds thus far with a 3-1 start that has seen them face both the Nuggets and Suns twice. They were underdogs in all four of those games, just as they are here. But three of those four games were at home. Two of the wins came by three points or less. Seems like the Kings are due for a “reality check” on New Year’s Eve as Houston has gone 6-1, both straight up and against the spread, vs. them the previous two seasons. John Wall is set to make his Rockets debut here as he and two other players return from quarantine. The others are Eric Gordon and DeMarcus Cousins. The Rockets were only able to travel with nine players for their two road games because of COVID protocols. This looks to be an obvious spot where they get things going in a positive direction. Play on HOUSTON

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This is a 10* on SAN FRANCISCO

San Francisco has been far more “active” than San Diego heading into the WCC opener for both teams. The Dons have played 10 games thus far, though only one of those came here at home. They are 6-4 with two of the losses coming fairly recently, on the road against Pac 12 schools (Cal and Oregon). Their most recent game was a 68-65 victory over Grand Canyon University. San Diego is just 1-3 and the last time we saw them (12 days ago), they were being blown out (by 32 points) at UC Irvine. That doesn’t bode well for the Toreros today. They’ve lost two of their three road games by at least 27 points. USF should be quite thrilled to be playing at home on New Year’s Eve. In their only home game thus far, the Dons put up 107 points on Long Beach State. So far they’ve won three times by at least 25 points. So lay the double digit spread in this one. Play on SAN FRANCISCO

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This is a 10* on LA LAKERS

We’ve seen how the Lakers perform off a loss before and it was a 138-115 thrashing of Dallas on Christmas night. They are off a loss again tonight as they fell 115-107 to Portland on Monday. Their first road game of the year is tonight in San Antonio where they’ll face a Spurs team that is 3-0 ATS. This is the first of two straight games here in the Alamo as the teams play again on New Year’s Day. Though it was the second night of a back to back, it was a little surprising to see the Lakers falter down the stretch against Portland. It was the first time in more than a year that they lost a game in which they led going into the 4th quarter (59-0 previously). But they didn’t get much production off the bench (only 23 points) and thus couldn’t finish the job. However, we like them to finish here as the Spurs only scored 95 points against New Orleans on Sunday, their first loss of the 2020-21 season. We don’t expect much from San Antonio this year and they lost all three times they played the Lakers in 2019-2020. All three games were decided by at least seven points and two were at home. Play on LA LAKERS

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This is an 8* on DAYTON

We don’t anticipate Dayton having any problems with A-10 rival LaSalle on Wednesday. The Flyers are double digit favorites here for a reason, namely a 33-5 SU home record the L3 seasons. Quietly, they’ve also gone 54-14 SU overall during that time frame. They are off to a 4-1 start this year, the only loss coming by two points. Every Dayton game has been decided by six points or less with four of them decided by a total of 11 points. But the two most recent wins both came against SEC teams. LaSalle is not a good team as they are 3-5 and really struggling to score when not at home. The Explorers come in averaging only 60.8 points/game when playing on the road or at a neutral site. That’s problematic considering Dayton only allows 62.7 points/game at home. The last two meetings between these two sides have seen the Flyers prevail by 26 and 31 points. LaSalle scored only 39 and 58 points. It’s gonna get ugly again tonight. Play on DAYTON

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This is a 10* on MIAMI

This is a rematch from last year’s playoffs where Miami “stunned” Milwaukee with a 4-1 series win. The Bucks are just 1-2 to start the year with road losses to the Celtics and Knicks. Their only win, Christmas Day vs. Golden State was at home. Losing to the Knicks is embarrassing enough but giving up 130 points was really bad. Considering that loss and the revenge angle, we are anticipating “everyone” to be on the Bucks here, but the spread is too high. Miami hasn’t played since Christmas when they easily handled the Pelicans. That 111-98 win was reminiscent of the team we saw go all the way to the NBA Finals back in October. Probably no Jimmy Butler tonight, but that’s okay as the Heat can still turn to a deep roster that’s led by Bam Adebayo’s team-high 21.0 PPG scoring average. The team is also 10-3 SU/9-3 ATS when playing with three or more days rest. The Bucks aren’t getting much offensive production beyond their top two scorers (Giannis, Middleton) and the defense looked very shaky in both defeats. Play on MIAMI

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This is a 10* on FSU

Clemson’s only loss this season came exactly two weeks ago when they visited Virginia Tech. So far that is the Tigers’ only road game and it’s their only ACC game as well. They bounced back from that defeat last Monday by beating Morehead State 66-51 and while they did lead by as many as 24 in the second half, they ended up not coming close to covering the 26-point spread. Tonight they face #18 Florida State, who also has just one loss on the year. Like Clemson, the Seminoles are off a win following a loss. They lost to UCF, 86-74 at home, before bouncing back against Gardner Webb last Monday. They also did not cover a large spread last time out. While this will be the Noles first true road test and they are just 6-17 ATS L23 visits to Death Valley, we like them getting points in this spot. Last season, they were favored to win here (lost by 1) and also beat the Tigers by 18 down in Tallahassee. FSU is on an 8-5 ATS run as underdogs with six outright victories. This is the first time they have gotten points in 2020. Save for the loss to UCF, FSU’s defense has been good in every game this season and they are the best team Clemson will have faced so far. Play on FLORIDA STATE

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This is a 10* on HOUSTON

This seems like a lot of points for Houston to be getting? With the James Harden saga and COVID cancelling their first game, the Rockets are seemingly being “written off.” But they did take Portland to overtime in their only game played so far (lost 128-126) and easily covered a spread similar to this one. Harden scored 44 points and didn’t seem the least bit bothered by the drama. Denver is 0-2 right now with home losses to Sacramento and the Clippers. The Sacramento game went to overtime, but they were straight out blitzed X-mas night by LA. The expectation here will be that Denver “can’t” lose a third straight game at home. But that line of thinking has led to an inflated number, which we will gladly grab. The Rockets are 8-3 ATS the L11 meetings with the Nuggets and 25-19 ATS their L44 as underdogs. They flat out seem “mis-priced” in the early going this year. Play on HOUSTON

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This is a 10* on PHOENIX

Phoenix will look to avenge last night’s 106-103 loss in Sacramento, which was their first ATS loss in 10 games going back to last season’s bubble. They’d also won all nine games straight up. Sacramento is 2-0 with those wins coming by two and three points. They opened with an overtime win against Denver, but just as easily could be 0-2 right now. We can’t really see 3-0 happening for the Kings. So we’ll lay a short number with the Suns in this immediate revenge spot. Huge edges in rebounding and free throw attempts were key for the Kings last night. It’s atypical they enjoy such large advantages in those areas. Play on PHOENIX

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This is a 10* on SIU

Southern Illinois is one of three Missouri Valley teams still without a loss. The Salukis are 6-0 SU, 5-0 ATS and now begin conference play with a home game against Evansville. We’re no strangers to the Purple Aces as on Monday we won our 10* Total of the Week in their game at Belmont, which was a 72-63 loss for them. That dropped them to 2-4 on the year and both wins were by just three points at home. SIU enters in off its most impressive win to date, a 76-73 upset of Butler as a 9.5-point road underdog. We look for them to handle their business today in Carbondale where three of their four victories this season have been by double digits. SIU has won all four meetings against Evansville the past two seasons with the last one coming by 17 point (that was here at home). Evansville is 5-25 SU its last 30 road games. Play on SOUTHERN ILLINOIS

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This is a 10* on ILLINOIS

Being ranked #18 in the country isn’t a bad place to be, but we think even more highly of Illinois. Yes, they’ve already lost three times, but two were three-point games and all three were on the road. Saturday has them welcoming Indiana to Champaign-Urbana in a battle of two of the Big 10 teams that did not play on Christmas Day. Indiana is off a loss, a bad one at that, as they were nine-point favorites against a Northwestern team that beat them 74-67 in Bloomington. That was their third loss so far. As tempting as it may be to take the points in the gritty Big 10, the Fighting Illini are the play here. They’ve won their four home games by an average of 37.5 points. They also just beat Penn State by 17 on the road. As long as they don’t give up 75 points, the Illini are unbeaten in 2020. Indiana averages 72.5 points/game and has been held below 70 in four of its last six. Not enough firepower on the Hoosiers bench to keep up with an Illini team that’s shot better than 50% each of its last five games. Play on ILLINOIS

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This is an 8* on DALLAS

Both the Mavs and Lakers are coming off season-opening losses. The Lakers fell 116-109 to the Clippers while the Mavs lost 106-102 in Phoenix. Though Luka Doncic was able to score 32 points against the Suns, he was 0 for 6 on three-point attempts. His teammates’ shooting was no better (25 of 59) as the Mavs finished the game at just 42.4% overall and a miserable 9 of 24 from behind the arc. We expect the shooting will improve Christmas night. The turnaround between seasons is short and unprecedented for every team, but especially the Lakers, who were in the NBA Finals a scant two months ago. Being a more veteran team, they could start slow. They fell behind the Clippers by 20 early on opening night and had 19 turnovers. The offseason acquisitions make them stronger (than last year) in the long run, but those pieces are going to need time to “gel.” Not only do we see Dallas covering on Christmas night, they may very well end up winning this one outright. Play on DALLAS

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This is a 10* on GOLDEN STATE

After making five straight Finals appearances and winning three NBA Championships, the Warriors completely fell apart last season. Injuries were the reason. Klay Thompson and Draymond Green remain “on the mend,” but Steph Curry is back and set to lead the team back to relevance in 2020-21. Opening night certainly didn’t go the way Golden State had hoped as they got blown out in Brooklyn, 125-99. But you can say the same for Milwaukee, who lost their first game, 122-121 in Boston. Even though the Bucks nearly won, they too found themselves down double digits much of the second half. That they shot 51% on the road and lost is a “tough pill” to swallow. With “everyone” expecting Milwaukee to bounce back on Christmas Day, we’ll be siding with the Warriors as this line is far too large for a game taking place this early in the season. It’s only going to get higher due to Golden State’s first game performance. But Curry, who had 20 points vs. the Nets, is going to shoot better than 2 for 10 from 3-point land here (that’s what he shot in Brooklyn). The Warriors’ 3-point defense will also improve after they allowed the Nets to hit 43% from distance. Milwaukee has several new pieces and it’s going to take time to gel after the short offseason. We don’t see them being as dominant right away, compared to the past two seasons. We really believe in the Warriors here. Play on GOLDEN STATE

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This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE

Milwaukee has been the best team in the Eastern Conference each of the last two seasons, but has yet to make their way to an NBA Finals. Boston has made it to the Conference Finals in three of the last four seasons. So both of these teams have high hopes for 2020-21. With Giannis Antetokounmpo now signed, the Bucks can focus on the court and do what they do best. This has been the best offensive team in the league, at least in the regular season, two years running. They added Jrue Holiday. The Celtics have more question marks entering the season. Gordon Hayward is now in Charlotte. Kemba Walker is out because of a knee injury. So we think it could be a slow start in Beantown. The Bucks have beaten the Celtics in 8 of the previous 10 matchups and are 5-2 ATS the L7. They handle their business in the opener. Play on MILWAUKEE

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This is a 7* on MIAMI

The Heat will open this season where last season ended, that being Orlando, which of course hosted the NBA bubble. It won’t be the same arena where they lost to the Lakers in the NBA Finals in October, but the visit should still evoke memories. We like Miami to win tonight, though the money line appears to be the better option than the spread (which is rising). The Heat should again be one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference and while they’ll be restricting Jimmy Butler’s minutes (he averaged 43 MPG in the Finals) early on, there are no such limitations for Miami’s young core. Avery Bradley was an offseason acquisition, coming over from the Lakers. Orlando did not make any real changes in the offseason after finishing 8th in the East. They are probably going to battle with the likes of division rivals Atlanta and Washington for spots in the new ‘play-in’ scenarios this year. Though Miami wasn’t favored all that often during its playoff run, they have covered five straight as chalk. They’ve also beaten the Magic three straight times. Play on MIAMI

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This is an 8* on LAKERS 

Though we’re projecting both LA teams to fare quite well this season, the clear call on Opening Night is to take the Lakers. The consensus view is that the Lakers are now a better team than when they won the NBA Finals a scant two months ago. Looking at the roster, it’s difficult to argue with that assessment. Valuable additions such as Dennis Schroder, Montrezl Harrell and Marc Gasol make the Lakers a deeper team. It’s easy to “fall in love” with what Talen Horton-Tucker did in the preseason. Even though they just won the NBA Championship, LeBron and company will want to remind the league that they are the team to beat. The Clippers are a bit of a mess right now with the Kawhi Leonard situation seeming like a real distraction. They have a new coach in Ty Lue. It’s not like Doc Rivers was a bad coach, so problems with this team may run deeper than coaching. The teams split four regular season meetings last year, one of them in the bubble. The Lakers won the last two. Give me the favorite to win on Opening Night. Play on LA LAKERS 

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This is a 10* on TEX TECH

Texas Tech looks to bounce back from its second defeat of the season here as they travel to Norman to face Oklahoma. The Red Raiders lost by just 1 point to Kansas at home, but we still consider them to be one of the premier teams in the country. So do the oddsmakers by having them favored in this spot. Oklahoma is 5-1, but that one loss was really bad as they were blown out 99-77 by Xavier. That’s been the only real test thus far for the Sooners and they failed it miserably. They did win at TCU, but Texas Tech is a lot better than both TCU and Xavier. Offense isn’t always pretty for the Red Raiders but they come in as the #1 rated team in defensive efficiency in the entire country. Considering OU made only 5 three-pointers against Houston Baptist, a season-low, they figure to struggle from the perimeter again tonight. The Sooners are just 8-20 ATS off a SU win. Take the better team to win this nationally televised affair. Play on TEXAS TECH

This is a 9* on TOLEDO

Northern Illinois just picked up its first win in six tries as they beat Chicago State 64-54 on Friday. But Chicago State is arguably the worst team in all of Division I College Basketball. The Huskies are still without an ATS win (0-6) this season as they were 16.5-point favorites in that last game. They were also favored in the first two games of the season. Here they are underdogs to a Toledo that has played only one bad game and that was against a superior Michigan squad. The Rockets enter in at 6-3 with the other two losses coming by two and three points. They’ve won five of the last six, Michigan being the lone defeat. Northern Illinois already has three 20+ point losses on its resume and we just don’t see them staying close Tuesday afternoon. Toledo has actually lost three in a row to NIU, so they are going to take this game lightly nor will they take it easy on their downtrodden conference foe. In three previous home games, the Rockets have allowed an average of just 58.3 points/game. Play on TOLEDO

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This is an 8* on CLEMSON

Though it’s basketball, the final margin of victory this afternoon in Death Valley should be something reminiscent of the Clemson football team. Tigers’ hoops is coming off its 1st loss of the season, 66-60 at Virginia Tech last Tuesday. That was after starting the year not just 5-0 straight up, but also 5-0 against the spread. They’re matched up with Morehead State today and obviously the underdog has little, if any, chance in this one. Previous visits to Kentucky and Ohio State went really poorly for the Eagles as they lost to those respective opponents by 36 and 33 points. Clemson is better than both Kentucky and OSU. The Tigers already have four P5 wins, so they’re not playing a cupcake schedule. Even more impressive is that three of those four wins came by double digits. The only time Clemson got to face a non-P5 foe, they won 75-38 (South Carolina St) and we expect something along those lines here. Play on CLEMSON

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This is a 10* on MICH ST

Michigan State is 6-0 and ranked #4 in the country. But they actually haven’t covered a spread since their 75-69 “upset” of Duke on the 1st of the month. But this 3-game ATS losing streak is easier to swallow when you consider Sparty has been favored by at least 23 points in all three of those games. They’ve won by exactly 18 points their last two times out. Tonight the number is more manageable against Northwestern, who is 3-1 and hasn’t faced anything close to the challenge they’re up against here. The mood in Evanston is certainly “down” after yesterday’s loss in the Big 10 Championship Game by the football team. Don’t look for any kind of “pick me up” from Chris Collins team. Michigan State is averaging nearly 85 points/game and beat Northwestern by 29 in the last meeting. Big 10 play did not go well for Northwestern last season. They were just 3-17 SU. The Wildcats three wins this year came against Ark Pine Bluff, Chicago State and Quincy College. Eight Spartans scored at least nine points in the last game. Play on MICHIGAN STATE

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This is an 8* on Va Tech

After cashing a 38-point win last night, here’s another game on the College Basketball board that we feel will end up being not even remotely close. Va Tech can name the score Saturday as they host overmatched Coppin State. The Hokies just beat Clemson earlier this week, a nice bounce back from their only loss so far this season, which did come here in Blacksburg (to Penn State). Remember that Clemson is a top 25 team though, so that’s a really nice 66-60 win for Buzz Williams’ team. Coppin State is 1-5, their only win coming at home vs. UNC Greensboro. They lost by 17 at home to UMBC (remember them?) last time out - their 5th loss by double digits. This matchup ended up 74-42 (Va Tech, obviously) last year with the Hokies holding the Eagles below 20% shooting for the game. Should be more of the same today as Coppin State has looked REALLY bad thus far. Play on VIRGINIA TECH

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This is a 10* on UTAH 

Utah should easily handle its business Friday night against an Idaho team playing its fifth consecutive road game to start the season. The visiting Vandals have lost three of those four games by double digit margins and consider none of the previous opponents are as strong as the Utes. Utah’s only loss so far was to a good BYU team. They bounced back by beating Utah Valley State 75-67 on Tuesday. While they did not cover, they improved to 3-0 SU here at home and have scored at least 75 points in all three of those games. Idaho comes in averaging just 59.0 points/game. Don’t let Utah’s three-game ATS losing skid scare you. The Utes are 33-17 ATS when taking the court on an ATS losing skid of three games or more. In that last game, they led by 21 at the half. We don’t think they take their foot off the gas this time. The Utes’ have the 8th best turnover margin in the country right now. Idaho’s forecast is not bright as they were predicted to finish LAST in the Big Sky this season. Play on UTAH

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This is an 8* on SOUTHERN UTAH

Yes, Dixie State is a Division I school. And they are off to a 3-0 start to the season! Two of those three wins (N Dakota, Denver) were by a total of four points though. We all know the transition to DI won’t be easy for the Trailblazers so now seems like a good time to step in and fade them. Southern Utah is a solid 4-1 so far, although two of their wins were by exactly one point (both vs. Montana). Their only loss was by two points at Loyola Marymount, the opener of the season. The Thunderbirds are 3 for 3 at home and coming off a 10-point win over Utah Valley State. SUU has covered all four of its lined games. It’s somewhat amazing Dixie State was able to beat Denver on Saturday considering they were on the wrong end of a big FT shooting discrepancy. A key to their 3-0 record is their opponents have shot just 21.2% from three. That’s abnormally low. Southern Utah will do better. Much better. Play on SOUTHERN UTAH

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This is an 8* on NORTH TEXAS

North Texas is a big favorite Thursday. But for good reason as they are matched up against a subpar Houston Baptist team that figures to have all sorts of trouble keeping up here in Denton. Houston Baptist has actually done a decent job at covering the spread to this point. They are 4-1 ATS but were +28 or more in three of those games. Their only SU win this year was vs. Champion Baptist. All their losses have been by double digits, four of them by at least 22 points. This will be the second road game in three days after giving up 90 to Rice on Tuesday. The Huskies have also given up 100+ to both Arizona State and SMU. North Texas may not be as good as either of those squads, but the Mean Green are coming off an 81-56 win over Arkansas Pine Bluff. They’ve covered 7 of 10 as home favorites of 12.5 or more. They are 2-0 at home this season and the two wins have been by 54 and 25 points. Play on NORTH TEXAS

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This is an 8* on MARSHALL

Marshall (4-0) looks to stay unbeaten as Toledo pays a visit to Huntington Wednesday night. We like the home team’s chances as they’ve won all four games by double digits. Toledo has three losses and was beaten by 20 in their last road game. The other two losses were close, but the Rockets have lost both times they were an underdog. There will be no shortage of motivation from the Marshall side as the Thundering Herd have lost three straight times to Toledo. This triple revenge spot begs you to lay the points and we will as the Herd have allowed just 38.5% shooting thus far. They play at a very fast tempo, which will be too much for Toledo to deal with. This was the preseason favorite to win Conference USA, so they are not to be taken lightly. Lay it! Play on MARSHALL

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This is an 8* on COLORADO

For the second time in three days, we’ll lay the points with Colorado. The Buffs easily covered for us Monday in an 81-45 win against Northern Colorado. They were 13.5-point favorites in that game. They’re even bigger favorites today, but of course that means it’s a weaker opponent as well. Omaha has failed to cover five straight and their only SU win during that time came by two against SIU Edwardsville. The other four games were all double digit losses, the most recent coming Friday when they fell by 45 at Kansas. Colorado isn’t Kansas, but they certainly can win this game by half that margin. It helps that Omaha is 3-8 ATS as a road underdog of more than 12.5 points and 0-3 when getting 18.5 to 24. Colorado’s three wins this season have come by an average of 25.7 points. They are 10th in the country, allowing just 55 points/game. Omaha has yet to score more than 67 in a game this year and their losses have come by an average of more than 22 points/game. Colorado’s lone defeat came at the hands of Top 25 Tennessee. Omaha is not even close to the caliber of Tennessee, obviously. Play on COLORADO

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This is a 9* on EVANSVILLE

Two teams that have played a lot of close games thus far will face off tonight in Evansville. The host Purple Aces are looking to make it two in a row at home and they just defeated Eastern Illinois here, 68-65, as a 3.5-point underdog. Before that, they’d lost by 6 at Tenn-Martin (as a 4-point favorite) and Prairie View A&M by three (as a 2.5-pt dog). They’ve also been blown out by Louisville. So it was their first win last Wednesday. The last thing the Purple Aces want is another loss. SE Missouri State is coming off a home and home split with Lipscomb. They covered both games. Every Redhawks game thus far has been decided by eight points or less with the team’s record being 2-2 straight up (and 3-1 against the spread). Key for us is that Evansville has seen its shooting improve every game. SE Missouri State does not defend particularly well, so the Purple Aces are likely in store for their best shooting night of the season so far. Interesting that SE Missouri State has been an underdog in all four of its games. Can’t see a third upset in five games. Play on EVANSVILLE

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This is an 8* on COLORADO

Northern Colorado may be 2-0, but we’d hardly call the likes of Colorado Christian and Regis (MA) “competition.” Here they are going up against the class of the Rocky Mountain State, Colorado, who will be angry coming off an ugly 56-47 loss at Tennessee last week. The Buffaloes were just plain “off” in Knoxville as they finished with a 33.3 field goal percentage. They missed 17 of 22 threes. It must be acknowledged though that Tennessee was the #12 ranked team in the country when that game was played. Just like the step up in class here for Northern Colorado, the step down for Colorado is just as big. The Buffs won their first two games by a combined 35 points and we should be looking at a similar margin here tonight in Boulder where they are 29-6 L35 games. This will be their first home game of the season as well. This one should get ugly in a hurry. Play on COLORADO

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This is an 8* on FLORIDA STATE

It’s Florida and Florida State starting your Saturday in College Basketball. The two Sunshine State rivals have combined to go 5-0 thus far. Florida (3-0) has not been seriously tested while FSU did just defeat Indiana 69-67 here in Tallahassee, as part of the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge. The Seminoles won that game despite poor shooting, but their defense stepped up to hold IU to 36% from the field. In Florida’s last game, their opponent shot just 19.6%! But that was Stetson, not Florida State, who comes in as the #20 ranked team in the country. The ‘Noles are looking for a 7th straight win over the Gators. The previous six have been by an average of 10 points. So we’ll gladly lay the short number in this one. FSU does a great job on the glass, collecting 18 offensive rebounds per game and they are 6th in the country in offensive rebound percentage. Play on FLORIDA STATE

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This is a 10* on DAVIDSON 

We don’t envision Davidson having much trouble in this non-conference home game. The Wildcats have actually owned Georgia Southern through the years, posting an 18-7 ATS head to head mark, which includes 9-2 at home. Georgia Southern comes into Friday still sporting an unblemished won-loss record (3-0), but they haven’t played anybody of note and almost lost to USC Upstate last week. Davidson is 2-2 but those two losses were by a combined three points and on a neutral court to Texas and Providence. The Wildcats beat UNLV in their last game and have had more than a week off to prepare for this first home game in nearly three weeks. That USC Upstate team that Georgia Southern barely beat is 0-4. Yet they led the Eagles by as many as nine points in the second half. The game was decided on a three-point play in the final second. Lay the points with confidence in this one. Play on DAVIDSON

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This is a 9* on SETON HALL

Big East play commences Friday with Seton Hall hosting St. John’s. The hosts are 3-3 on the year and coming off an easy 33-point win against Wagner. They lost by 1 at Louisville in the first game of the season. Both home games have been blowouts as they also beat Iona by 22. St. John’s is a more difficult opponent compared to Wagner and Iona, however the Red Storm seem to be getting a bit too much respect from the oddsmakers and bettors for this conference road game. The Red Storm could barely beat Rider at home three days ago (won by only three) and have two other victories so far by four points or less. So while 5-1, the Johnnies could easily have a worse record right now. Seton Hall has dominated this Big East rivalry when hosting, going 14-2 SU and 13-3 ATS. They swept the season series last year, which included a 16-point win at home. They’ve won 8 of 10 overall against St. John’s and played a harder non-conference schedule. St. John’s was only 5-13 in Big East play last season. Play on SETON HALL

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This is a 10* on SAN FRANCISCO

With the NCAA Tournament being cancelled in March, one of the teams you felt for the most was San Francisco. The Dons had a breakout season in 2019-20, going 22-12 and there was a decent shot they were going to get an at-large bid. Keep in mind this program has been to the Big Dance just ONE time since 1982 and that was in 1998. This year, the Dons already have two losses, one of them a real “head-scratcher” to UMass-Lowell in the first game of the season. But they’ve also shown what they are capable of by beating then #4 Virginia on a neutral floor. The Dons have had a few extra days off to prepare here as Sunday’s game vs. Nevada was cancelled because of COVID. We ran with Long Beach State on Sunday and they covered against Seattle, but that was a much weaker opponent. The 49ers have really struggled shooting the ball in their first two games and were blown out by another WCC team (Loyola Marymount) in their first game (lost by 24). San Francisco is a better team than Loyola Marymount. Play on SAN FRANCISCO

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This is an 8* on LIPSCOMB

Lipscomb is looking to snap a four-game losing skid on Wednesday as it hosts SE Missouri State. In an interesting twist, these teams just played Monday. SE Missouri State won 82-77 as a 4-point home underdog despite Lipscomb shooting an impressive 55% from the field. One might think the Bisons could be in some trouble here given how hard it is to duplicate that kind of shooting. But we don’t see them taking 11 fewer shots than SE Missouri State again. This is Lipscomb’s first home game so a 1-4 start really isn’t that concerning. Two of the losses were close and the other two were at Cincinnati and Arkansas. It’s tough to beat the same opponent twice in a row and it’s not as if SE Missouri State is a good team. This will be the 4th straight game they’re underdogs and we see some value here as Lipscomb went off as the favorite, on the road, in that first meeting. Expect a double digit win by the home team Wednesday. Play on LIPSCOMB

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This is a 10* on BELLARMINE

Don’t feel bad if you’ve never heard of Bellarmine. The University, located in Louisville, KY, is new to Division I this season. They just picked up their first ever DI victory two days ago, beating Howard 84-63. This will be their first ever home game as a DI school, so it’s a pretty big deal (even without fans present). They host Chattanooga, who has opened 4-0. Besides Howard, the Knights’ only other game thus far was against Duke and they were actually competitive in the first half of that game. Despite being unbeaten, Chattanooga is in a bit of a tough situation here playing its second road game in three days. They won at Middle Tennessee Monday 80-70 as two-point pups. That victory seems to have influenced this line greatly, but we see value on what should be a fired up Bellarmine team. Play on BELLARMINE

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This is an 8* on ILLINOIS

#6 Illinois takes on #10 Duke as part of the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge on Tuesday. This is also one of two matchups of Top 10 opponents on tonight’s card (Creighton-Kansas). The Illini will be looking to bounce back from an ugly 89-62 defeat they suffered at the hands of #2 Baylor last week. Duke also knows what it’s like to taste defeat as they fell last Tuesday to Michigan State. That game was played in Cameron and while the Blue Devils have since bounced back (76-54 win over Bellarmine), that win really proves nothing. Duke is 0-3 ATS and seemingly overrated at #10 in the polls. A second home loss to a top 10 Big 10 opponent is certainly not out of the realm of possibility here as Illinois is 4-1 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. We like what we saw from the Illini in the first few games and believe them to be a legit Top 10 team. We don’t feel the same about Duke right now as they’ve used eight different players in the starting five so far and had just two double digit scorers in the last game. They’re young. Play on ILLINOIS

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This is an 8* on IONA

Iona and Morgan State are both 1-1 having lost their respective openers and then coming back to win the second time out. But while the records are the same, the paths were very different. Iona has played Seton Hall and Hofstra, both on the road. Morgan State has faced Mt. St. Marys and Lincoln PA, both at home. Before you go writing off Hofstra as a strong opponent, Iona was an 8.5-point underdog against them. By the way, the Gaels are now being coached by Rick Pitino. Now he’s favored for the first time in almost three years. Given that Morgan State just allowed 94 to Lincoln PA after scoring only 55 vs. MSM, this should be an easy one for Pitino’s team. Iona leads all MAAC teams, scoring 73 points/game. They have three players that account for 67 percent of the scoring. Isaiah Ross is their best player as he’s shooting 52% from three and 99% from the free throw line. Iona is 4-0 all-time vs. Morgan State and should take advantage of a Bears team that is 0 for its last 5 ATS when playing with 5 or 6 days rest. Play on IONA

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This is an 8* on HARTFORD

After starting 0-2 (losses to UConn and Villanova), Hartford has started to gain some momentum with back to back wins. One of those was against Fairfield, who they’ll play again tonight. Fairfield is 0-3 and while they’ve been “in” the last two games (lost 66-61 to Hartford), it’s tough to imagine the Stags winning on the road tonight after the lost to Hartford at home. Neither team shot well in the first meeting, although Fairfield did make 7 of its 18 three-point attempts while Hartford was just 8 of 28. We don’t see them shooting that much better from distance now that they’re the road team nor do we believe they’ll hold a +9 edge in free throw attempts like they enjoyed last week. Really, the fact Fairfield couldn’t beat this Hartford team at home is a bad sign. The Stags have lost 45 of their last 66 games overall including 8-23 on the road. Play on HARTFORD

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This is a 10* on LBSU

Long Beach State’s season didn’t get off to a good start as they lost by 24 at Loyola Marymount on Friday. But the 49ers have what looks to be their easiest game of the non-conference slate here on Sunday as they host a Seattle team that’s coming off two straight double digit losses, the more recent coming by 26 against UCLA. Coach Dan Monson has been known for challenging his team with tough non-conference schedules ever since he arrived here in Long Beach back in 2007. The 49ers didn’t “show up” for the season opener, but they will for what is their lone home game between now and the 1st of the year. This is a shockingly low spread in our eyes, but we’ll take it as LBSU is 5-0 (straight up) the past three seasons as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. They’ve won over two-thirds of the time in that role. Seattle is shooting below 30% from three-point range so far. LBSU has revenge for an ugly 22-point loss up the coast from last season. Play on LONG BEACH STATE

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This is a 10* on MINNESOTA

Big time mismatch here as Minnesota is 3-0 while North Dakota State is 0-2. You might be thinking that the large point spread could be of “assistance” to the Fighting Hawks on Friday, but you’d be wrong as they are 0-6 ATS their past six chances as a road underdog of at least 12.5 points. Not only did ND suffer a double digit loss in the season opener at Miami (OH), they lost to a team named Dixie State just two days ago. That’s a brand new team to Division I and the fact ND was just a three-point favorite to begin with speaks volumes about the state of this program. Meanwhile, Minnesota is averaging 84.7 points in three games. They just beat Loyola Marymount twice. While they didn’t cover the second time, they held LMU below 25% shooting from three-point range. That coupled with an explosive offense should result in an easy win Friday. The Gophers got called for a lot of fouls in their last game, which is why that game stayed so close. Don’t see them getting whistled as much tonight at home and against a really bad team, that means a blowout is coming. Play on MINNESOTA

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This is an 8* on SOUTHERN UTAH

Perhaps you’re watching “Big Sky” (on ABC) but we expect no real surprises here in the conference that bears that show’s namesake. Southern Utah should be able to defeat Montana at home as the Golden Grizzlies appear to be a bit shorthanded for their conference opener and did not look good against USC on Saturday, which is the only game that they have played. Montana was held to 62 points on 33.9% shooting and then got torched on the defensive end, allowing USC to shoot 50%. They really struggled to defend the three-point line in that game. Look for that to be a problem here against a Southern Utah outfit that has shot the lights out in two games, making almost 42% of their 3PA. The Thunderbirds have scored 83 and 95 points in their two games. These Big Sky rivals played two close games last season with the road team winning both times. But Southern Utah has won 21 of its past 30 at home and seems like a good value tonight. Play on SOUTHERN UTAH

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This is a 10* on VA TECH

Virginia Tech should not encounter much resistance tonight when it goes up against VMI, a team that traditionally gives up a lot of points. In their lone game thus far against meaningful competition, the Keydets gave up 86 points to Penn State. They won their other two contests, but those were against St. Andrews and Longwood. Virginia Tech is a legit Top 25 team right now (ranked #16) that has already beaten Villanova 81-73 as a nine-point underdog. The Hokies have also beaten VMI each of the past two seasons, both times by double digits. The Hokies followed their big upset of Villanova with a 75-68 win over South Florida on Sunday and haven’t played since, so they should be well rested. VMI played two nights ago, which won’t do them any favors tonight. That they lost by 30 to Penn State is particularly instructive when handicapping this matchup. This is a team predicted to finish 9th in the 10-team Southern Conference. The Hokies are shooting almost 50% through three games and should score at will in this one. Play on VIRGINIA TECH

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This is an 8* on FLORIDA STATE

Another game that won’t be close on Wednesday’s NCAAB slate is when Florida State hosts North Florida. The 22nd ranked Seminoles will be opening their season tonight while North Florida is already 0-3. All three losses for the Ospreys have been blowouts with them going down to Eastern Kentucky by 13, NC State by 35 and Miami by 18. That middle result is what sticks out to us. Florida State is better than all three teams North Florida has faced so far and thus this figures to turn into another long night. While the ‘Noles did lose a couple of lottery picks to the NBA, they did bring in Scottie Barnes, the highest rated recruit ever to come to Tallahassee. FSU typically defends very well and has scored 98 and 95 points the last two years on North Florida. This is precisely the kind of opponent you want to open your season against. Play on FLORIDA STATE

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This is an 8* on OHIO STATE

We expect Ohio State to have little difficulty here blowing out Morehead State. The 23rd ranked Buckeyes are 2-0 and won both games by double digits. Admittedly, it was just a 10-point win over UMass-Lowell where they trailed in the second half. But they’d previously beaten Illinois State by 27 in the season opener. The closer than expected call against Mass-Lowell seems to have influenced this line and we say it’s time to take advantage. While Morehead State is off an upset win against Arkansas State, 69-61 as a three point home underdog, they’d previously lost to Kentucky by 36 and Richmond by 18. That’s the caliber of competition they are up against here. In those two defeats, the Eagles allowed the opponents to shoot almost 56% overall while averaging 81.5 points. Ohio State scored 94 in the season opener, so it should be another big offensive night for them in Columbus. Play on OHIO STATE

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This is an 8* on UIC

Former Horizon League enemies meeting here. Even though Valparaiso is now in the Missouri Valley Conference, there should still be a sense of “rivalry” when they meet Illinois-Chicago on Tuesday, particularly on the UIC side of things. UIC has lost 10 straight times to Valpo. Though it’s a whole new group of players, they should come out highly motivated to end that win streak. The Flames are 2-0 thus far, both close wins. They beat Northern Illinois by four and Central Michigan by two, so it’s too bad they aren’t in the MAC! Valpo lost its only game, 77-71 at Vanderbilt, as they blew a five-point lead with just under six minutes to go. UIC did lead Central Michigan by double digits at halftime, so they were in control throughout, even if the final score doesn’t really indicate that. Both teams have done a good job defensively so far, but winning on the road might be too great of an ask for a young Valpo team right now. They may also be looking forward to a date with Purdue later this week. UIC has won 24 of its last 35 home games while Valpo has lost 19 of its last 28 away from home. Play on UIC

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This is an 8* on CREIGHTON

City pride is at stake here with Omaha taking on Creighton. Omaha comes in as the decided underdog - and for good reason. The Mavericks are 1-2 so far this year and have failed to cover seven straight times against teams with winning records. Creighton is off a win, 69-58 over North Dakota State, which is their only game played to date. Nebraska-Omaha’s only win to this point was by a single point, 60-59 over Middle Tennessee. That came on the heels of a six-point loss to Austin Peay and right before a 12-point loss to Abilene Christian. Despite the questionable status of Creighton’s Denzel Mahoney (COVID-19), we think the Bluejays win this one going away as they are the #9 ranked team in the country right now. Preseason Big East Player of the Year Marcus Zegarowski shot just 2 of 11 against North Dakota State. He should have a much better shooting night here. Omaha has made just 18.2% of its three-point attempts thus far, which is horrendous. Play on CREIGHTON

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This is a 10* on XAVIER

Xavier opened its season with a convincing 101-49 win against Oakland. Since then, the Musketeers have had two close calls against Bradley and Toledo. They were able to win both - but only by a combined four points - and thus it was 0-2 ATS. Eastern Kentucky is off to a 2-0 start and has covered both of its games, but there’s a big difference from those first two opponents (N Florida, Charleston So) to the team they face today. The Colonels are just 1-6 ATS the last seven times they’ve been a road underdog of 12.5 or more points. Concerning for EKU is the fact they’ve shot 35% in both games so far. Xavier is allowing a 31.2 field goal percentage thus far, so it figures to be a very low-scoring game for the underdogs here. Xavier opponents are shooting less than 30% on 2-pt attempts, which ranks 4th in the country, and EKU is shooting just 16% from three-point range. Should be an easy one for the Musketeers. Play on XAVIER

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This is an 8* on CHATTANOOGA 

We’ve got an in-state battle from the Volunteer State with Chattanooga opening its season proper against 0-1 Tennessee Tech. Tennessee Tech had little chance of winning their first game. They were big underdogs against Indiana and did even worse than expected, losing by 30. Chattanooga’s first game was a glorified exhibition as they defeated Lander College 99-63 a few days ago. The Mocs are 21-8 ATS on the road the previous two seasons so we believe the SoCon representation should perform well tonight. The last time these schools played, it was an 11-point home victory for Chattanooga. This was a 20-win team last season. They have eight guys back plus added some good-looking transfers. Tennessee Tech won only 9 games in 2019-20 and four of those came late in the year. Of the last 51 times that the Golden Eagles have been an underdog, they’ve won just nine times. So we will lay a short number. Play on CHATTANOOGA

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This is a 10* on USC

USC already has a game under its belt and it didn’t really go as well as expected. They were still victorious mind you, but needed overtime to defeat Cal Baptist by a score of 95-87. They didn’t even come close to covering the number, which was -18.5. But what that close call does for us here is provide some value. We certainly expected the Trojans to be favored by more against Montana, who has yet to play in 2020. What hurt USC Wednesday night was the fact Cal Baptist went 20 of 41 from three-point range. The Trojans were just 5 of 19 from distance. That kind of discrepancy shouldn’t exist again tonight. You’d expect USC to be the better three-point shooting team. Or maybe they don’t have to be considering they made 32 of 47 two-point attempts in that first game! Montana is just 3-12 ATS as a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points. The Grizzlies lost almost all of their offensive production from last season and are really going to struggle early on. Play on USC

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This is a 10* on AUBURN

This game is in Fort Myers, very much on the “undercard” of Gonzaga-Kansas. Auburn went 25-6 a year ago. St. Joe’s was 6-26. Auburn is very much a program in “turmoil” right now. Not only did they lose their top six players from last season, but they are also a part of an ongoing FBI investigation. Still, we see no reason why we shouldn’t lay the points in this matchup. They are still a long and athletic team. St. Joe’s returns a lot more from last year, but that was a bad team (see record above). The Hawks are being picked to finish near the bottom of the Atlantic 10 again and aren’t going to be that improved in 2020-21. Because of the self-imposed postseason ban that was imposed earlier this week, we’re getting value on Auburn as bettors are seemingly willing to write this team off. That’s a mistake in our eyes. They are 7-1 ATS L8 neutral site games while St. Joseph’s is 1-3-1 ATS its last five. This number has come down much too far and Auburn is now a 10* play for us. Play on AUBURN

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This is an 8* on CLEMSON 

When you think Clemson and Mississippi State, College FOOTBALL is probably what comes to mind. But these Power 5 schools will open the NCAAB season against each other on Wednesday. This is part of the Space Coast Challenge in Melbourne, FL. It replaces the cancelled Cancun Classic. Clemson is the more experienced side coming into the year, but it’s the arrival of highly touted freshman PJ Hall that has Tigers fans most excited. Hall was the #1 high school player in the state of South Carolina, so he was a huge “get” for the program. Though Miss State has put together three consecutive 20+ win seasons, they bring back just four players and one of them didn’t see significant minutes last season. Clemson actually allowed fewer points per game a year ago and has revenge for a loss two years ago to the Bulldogs on a neutral floor. Take Clemson to win. Play on CLEMSON

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This is an 8* on ST MARYS

St. Mary’s and Memphis are two “mid-major” programs accustomed to success, but there’s a lot of new faces on both rosters to start the 2020-21 campaign. Memphis saw two of its standouts from last year get taken in the Top 20 picks of the NBA Draft last week. They return just four upperclassmen, none of them seniors. St. Mary’s also loses the bulk of its production (72% of scoring) from last year’s squad. But we’re more confident in the Gaels “figuring things out” in this first game in South Dakota, part of the Bad Boy Mowers Crossover Classic. It seems as if every year St. Mary’s wins more than 20 games and last year was no exception as they finished 26-8 and would have made the NCAA Tournament. Memphis has a player out because of COVID contact tracing and another transfer has yet to be ruled eligible. The Tigers are too young to trust laying this many points in the early going. Last year’s team had a losing record away from home and averaged just 64.5 points in those games. Play on ST. MARYS

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This is a 10* on MIAMI OH

Miami Ohio opens its season with a visit from North Dakota and we see this being an easy cover for the RedHawks, who played well in Oxford a season ago. Especially on the defensive end where they limited opponents to 40.7% shooting. North Dakota could not claim the same sort of defensive prowess. The Fighting Hawks gave up 75.5 points/game last year and an even higher number on the road. The season ended in ugly fashion with an 89-53 defeat at the hands of North Dakota State in the Summit League Tournament. Never did the Fighting Hawks win more than two straight games during the 2019-20 campaign. They're not about to start this year with a win either. Both teams lost their star guard, but Miami returns four starters. Play on MIAMI OHIO

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This is a 10* on MIA

Miami isn’t going down without a fight -- that is if they go down at all! As we said prior to Game 5 - “if there’s one thing we’ve learned this postseason, it’s that the Heat are a resilient bunch.” We saw it in Game 3 when they won outright as a 9-point dog, 115-104. Game 4 was “close” too; or at least Miami covered again thanks to a made 3-pointer from Tyler Herro with 1.1 seconds left. By pulling the upset in Game 5, the Heat now have a 15-4-1 ATS playoff record and they are 14-6 straight up as well. They’ve been beaten in back to back games just one time during this run, that being Games 1 and 2 of this series. We said to bank on them shooting better in Game 5 than they did in Game 4 (when they finished with a 42.7 FG%) and they did, finishing at 42.9% from three-point range. (They were above 50% overall in both Games 2 and 3). Bam Adebayo is now back after missing Games 2 and 3. He’s had a combined 28 points and 11 rebounds since returning. But of course it has been Jimmy Butler “carrying the load” with those great individual efforts in Games 3 (40 points, 11 rebounds and 13 assists) and 5 (35-12-11). At one point in Game 5, the Lakers were shooting 56.3% and still losing. Now Anthony Davis is banged up. All the pressure is on the Lakers. Play on MIAMI

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This is a 10* on MIAMI

Miami is down to their “last proverbial out.” It’s win or go home time as they trail the Lakers 3-1 in the series. But if there’s one thing we’ve learned this postseason, it’s that the Heat are a resilient bunch. We saw it in Game 3 when they won outright as a 9-point dog, 115-104. Game 4 was “close” too; or at least Miami covered again thanks to a made 3-pointer from Tyler Herro with 1.1 seconds left. That leaves the Heat with a 14-4-1 ATS playoff record and they are 13-6 straight up as well. They’ve been beaten in back to back games just one time during this run, that being Games 1 and 2 of this series. Bam Adebayo is now back after missing Games 2 and 3. He had 15 points and 7 rebounds in Game 4. Of course, Jimmy Butler had that great individual effort in Game 3 with 40 points, 11 rebounds and 13 assists. Bank on the Heat shooting better than they did in Game 4 when they finished with a 42.7 FG%. (They were above 50% the previous two games). This might very well turn out to be the last game of the NBA bubble/season. But the Heat, who haven’t failed to cover in B2B games the entire playoffs, won’t go down without a fight. Play on MIAMI

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This is a 10* on MIAMI

Turns out that people were writing off Miami a little earlier than they should have. As a 9-point underdog, the Heat won Game 3 outright, 115-104. They were led by Jimmy Butler’s triple double of 40 points, 11 rebounds and 13 assists. That’s just a tremendous individual effort in the wake of the injuries to both Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic. Neither of those two are guaranteed to return for Game 4 (though Adebayo has said “he hopes to”). Nevertheless, even without Adebayo and Dragic, Miami starters outscored their Lakers brethren 89-51 in Game 3. The Heat have shot better than 50% overall the L2 games, so they’re pretty locked in offensively right now. As we’ve talked about before, there’s a lot of talent on hand for coach Erik Spoelstra, such as Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson and Jae Crowder. All three of those players were in double figures in Game 3. For the Lakers, beyond LeBron James and Anthony Davis, there isn’t exactly a ton of talent depth. Though the Lakers have not dropped two straight in any playoff series so far, it is Miami that owns the better ATS record (13-4-1) this postseason and, while the number is down from Game 3, they are still getting too many points here. LA is just 2-8-1 ATS the L11 times they have been off an ATS loss. We never stopped believing that the Heat could compete in this series and taking the points is the way to go for Game 4! Play on MIAMI

This is a 10* on MIA

Miami got blown out in Game 1. Along the way, Bam Adebayo, Goran Dragic and Jimmy Butler all got hurt. Butler will play in Game 2 but the other two are officially listed as doubtful. So basically everyone is going to write off the Heat. We will not. While injuries obviously do matter, this number is far off from where it was in Game 1 when a LOT of bettors were taking the points. If Miami does lose Game 2, it will be the first time they’ve lost consecutive games in the playoffs. The Lakers are 7-2-1 ATS L10 games, but several of those wins have come by single digits. This play is classic “zig zag theory” as the previous game loser was blown out and now getting more points to work with in the next game. Given all the hype that existed around Miami less than 48 hours ago, we believe it foolish to simply write them off after one bad loss. Their 2-3 zone can keep them in this one. Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro are a pair of 3-point specialists that can help Jimmy Butler with the offense. The Heat are 35-15-2 ATS off an ATS loss including 3-0 in the playoffs. Play on MIAMI

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This is a 10* on MIAMI

Miami failed in its first try to put away Boston, uncharacteristically blowing a double digit lead. The game swung pretty dramatically in the third quarter when the Celtics outscored the Heat 41-25. Miami’s three-point shooting for the game (19.4%) was dreadful as it’s been now for the last 13 quarters of the series (below 25%!). Expect the Heat to rediscover their touch from downtown Sunday. As we know, the Heat have not lost two in a row since the playoffs began. They’ve only been beaten in regulation twice, both times in this series, in 14 games. Off a double digit loss, they are 9-3 SU this season. While we won’t predict the Heat win straight up here, it’s very likely that they will and thus finish off the series. Take the points. Play on MIAMI

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This is a 10* on DEN

For a third straight series, Denver finds itself down three games to one. Before this year’s playoffs, no team in history had ever come back from multiple 3-1 series deficits to win a series. Only a handful of teams had ever come back from one 3-1 series deficit. Of course, you could say Denver has the Lakers “right where they want them.” Since losing Game 1, the Nuggets have played LA tough with the two losses coming by a total of eight points (six and two). While they’re 0-3 SU in Game 4’s this postseason, they are obviously perfect in Game 5’s and 6-0 SU overall from Game 5 on. They are also 8-1 ATS when down in the series this postseason and that record could be 9-1 if you got the Nuggets at +6.5 on Thursday. Denver has shot the ball very well in this series, including right around 52% the last two games. In Game 4, the Lakers had tremendous advantages in both second chance points and free throw attempts, but those kinds of disparities are not something they should expect again. Take the points. Play on DENVER

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This is a 10* on MIAMI

With a win tonight, Miami moves on to the NBA Finals and a likely matchup with former teammate LeBron James and the Lakers. Don’t worry about the fact that the Heat are underdogs tonight. People have been underrating this team ever since the season restarted. They’ve gone 11-2 SU in the playoffs with one of those losses coming in overtime. They are also 11-2 ATS. After falling behind early in each of the first three games, Miami largely controlled Game 4 wire to wire. They did so despite shooting just 42.9% and 10 of 37 from three-point range. They’ll shoot better tonight, even as they are unlikely to get 37 points against from rookie Tyler Herro. That they continue to be the underdog is a little ridiculous and we’ll gladly take the points. Play on MIAMI

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This is a 10* on MIA

Game 3 of this series marked the first loss in regulation for Miami since the playoffs began. While they’ve had a “nasty habit” of falling behind in games, the Heat still lead this Eastern Conference Finals 2 games to 1 over Boston. We see no way that the Heat don’t improve upon their shooting from the last game as they sank just 12 of 44 three-point attempts and finished with a 38.8 overall FG%. Despite all that, they were still within five points in the final minute. Obviously, having lost just two games since the playoffs started, the Heat have yet to drop two in a row. The last time they suffered back to back losses was right before the playoffs began, in the final two seeding games, neither of which they really put forth much effort in. The extra rest the teams got between Games 3 and 4 is interesting. Miami is 12-3 ATS the L3 seasons when playing with three or more days rest. Boston hasn’t won two straight since opening the last round 2-0 vs. Toronto. We don’t see Miami falling behind by double digits again, so taking the points is the way to go tonight in an obvious bounce back spot. Play on MIAMI

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This is a 10* on DENVER

Given how their last two series have gone, maybe the Nuggets have the Lakers “right where they want them.” No strangers to trailing in these playoffs, Denver got blown out in Game 1 of the WCF, losing 126-114. Of course, they were blown out even worse by the Clippers in Game 1 of the last round (120-97) and still came back to win that series in seven games. They are the first team in league history to win two series in the same postseason in which they trailed 3-1. Not only did Denver bounce back from a Game 1 blowout to win the Clippers series, they took Game 2 outright, 110-101. We’ll definitely grab the points here as the Nuggets are now 6-1 ATS when trailing in the series this postseason. Since falling behind Utah 3 games to 1 in the first round, they’ve covered six straight in the role. The Lakers shot very well from 3-point land in Game 1 (42.3%), which is much higher than their season average. They can’t count on that happening again. Play on DENVER

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This is an 8* on DENVER

Denver has consistently been underpriced in this series, so why should we stop now? We had the Nuggets in their upsets in Games 2 & 6 as well as their ATS win in Game 3. This is the consecutive series where they’ve rallied from a 3-1 deficit. We all remember what happened against Utah in Game 7. They are now 6-1 ATS when trailing in a series this postseason. Each of the last two games have seen them stage shocking comebacks from double digit deficits. While one could take this as a sign of the Clippers’ superiority and “falling asleep at the wheel,” we see it as “blown opportunities.” Los Angeles has just one double digit win in the series; it came in Game 1 when they had an edge in rest over the Nuggets. Since rest time has been equal, the Nuggets are 4-1 ATS. They outscored the Clippers 64-35 in the second half of Game 6. A troubling sign for LA is that they’ve shot better than 42% from the floor just once in the past five games. There is a lot of pressure on the Clippers in this Game 7. Denver is playing with “house money.” Even if they can’t make history and be the first team to win consecutive series in which they were down 3 games to 1, the Nuggets will keep this one close. Play on DENVER

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This is a 10* on MIAMI

After knocking off the top two seeds in the East, Miami and Boston meet in the Conference Finals. Miami ousted top seeded Milwaukee in five games. Even with Giannis Antetokounmpo hampered, that was still a really impressive effort from the Heat, who are now 8-1 SU and ATS this postseason. Boston needed seven games to eliminate Toronto, but was pretty clearly the better team in that series. Still, the extra games played is definitely a disadvantage for a thin lineup that’s still without Gordon Hayward. Bam Adebayo is the name to watch for the Heat as he led the way with 21 points and 12 rebounds in a 112-106 win when these teams faced off on August 4th. Boston defended the interior well against Toronto, particularly Daniel Theiss, but they clearly had issues against Adebayo last month. The Celtics shot just 43.5% in that game and were 10 of 33 from three-point range. Miami’s 3-point shooting has been a major weapon so far in the playoffs as they are at 38%, which is the highest percentage among the four likely conference finalists. Boston is just 13th in three-point shooting among the 16 playoff teams. Remember that the Heat have not been beaten in regulation since the playoffs began. Boston did not top 103 points in regulation in five of its last six games vs. Toronto. Play on MIAMI

AAA

This is a 10* on DENVER

Denver has already come back from one 3-1 series deficit (1st round vs. Utah). Can they do it again? Not sure (honestly seems doubtful), but a big difference between this and the Jazz series is that Denver is getting a lot of points on a game by game basis. Taking them here in Game 6, we don’t need a SU win to cash a winning ticket. Earlier in this series, the Nuggets did cover the spread without winning (Game 3). Game 5 saw them come back from a double digit deficit to stun the Clippers 111-105. We don’t see the Nuggets falling behind like that again. The Clippers have shot pretty poorly in three of the five games so far. When trailing in a playoff series, Denver is 8-1 ATS including 5-1 this year. Over the course of the five games, LA is only outscoring Denver by 5 PPG. Jokic, Murray and Porter all had nice performances in Game 5, which is worrisome for the Clippers. So was the play of their bench. Take the points here. Play on DENVER

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This is a 10* on HOUSTON

Houston is playing for its season Saturday night. They trail the Lakers 3-1 and were thoroughly outplayed in Game 4, losing 110-100. Really, it wasn’t even as close as the final score would indicate as the Rockets trailed by as many as 23 in the fourth quarter. In many ways, it was the polar opposite of both Games 2 and 3 when they played the Lakers tough, only to come up just shy on the scoreboard. While the Rockets faced a large early deficit in Game 2, they came back and took the lead going into the fourth quarter. Game 3 saw them have the lead at halftime. Both those games saw the Lakers shoot the lights out. In Game 4, it was a massive edge in the paint and on second-chance points for LA. On the bright side for Houston, Russell Westbrook finally “woke up” with a 25-point effort Thursday. Faced with the prospect of “win or go home,” we figure we’ll be getting the Rockets’ best effort here, which certainly wasn’t the case in any of the last three games. It may not completely resemble Game 1 (which they won 112-97), but they’ll at least stay within the number as James Harden will certainly shoot better than 2 for 11 in this game. Play on HOUSTON

This is a 10* on HOUSTON

A second half surge propelled the Lakers to a 112-102 win and cover in Game 3. Now they’ll look to go up 3-1 in the best of seven series against the Rockets. Obviously, Houston is in a virtual must win. We’ll take the points with them as they’ve been very close each of the last two games. Game 2 saw them erase all of an early double digit deficit to go up heading into the 4th quarter. This despite the Lakers shooting better 56% from the field, for the entire game! Game 3 saw the Rockets take the lead into halftime. But again, hot shooting from the Lakers (55.1 FG%) was too much to overcome. The fact that Los Angeles has shot better than 55% the L2 games, yet trailed and was tied going into the 4th quarter is not a good sign, in our opinion. Inevitably, their shooting will cool off. Meanwhile, the Rockets are due to heat up. This is the first time they’ve trailed in a series this postseason. The Lakers are only 5-10-1 ATS in the bubble and this is the first time they’ve covered two in a row. They are 3-7 ATS off their last 10 SU wins. Play on HOUSTON

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This is a 10* on TORONTO

It’s a cliche assessment of Game 5, but Toronto really was badly outplayed at both ends of the floor. The game was never really in doubt as the Celtics raced out to a 25-11 lead after one quarter and a 62-37 lead by halftime. They held the Raptors to 38.8% shooting. But as we see so often in the NBA Playoffs, teams tend to bounce back from a poor effort. Now facing elimination, the Raptors have no other option but to bounce back. They really do need to get it going offensively as they’re averaging just 97.2 PPG for the series. Throughout the course of the series, the odds have shifted rather significantly as Toronto closed as a 2-point favorite for Game 1, but is now a 3-point dog for Game 6. While the pointspread is still unlikely to come into play, we do think there’s value in taking the Raptors as an underdog. They are 6-1-1 ATS their L8 playoff games getting points. The possibility of not having Serge Ibaka hurts, however that’s something they can overcome. Coach Nurse said "I know it sounds crazy .. but I thought our offense was awesome for like the first eight minutes," This despite the team going 2 for 15. Nurse added. "I don't think those shots could have been more open." Look for the Raptors to make those open shots Wednesday. They’ve got no other option. Play on TORONTO

AAA

This is a 10* on DENVER

Denver played a masterful Game 2, jumping out to a 44-25 advantage by the end of the first quarter, then holding on for the 110-101 upset as 8.5-point underdogs. After the Lakers successfully bounced back from a loss last night, most will anticipate the Clippers doing the same thing tonight. But we feel this line is just too high for an LA team that is just too inconsistent. Plus, the Nuggets have won four of their last five games anyway. They’ve also covered four of the last five times they’ve been an underdog. They are 12-1 ATS their L13 Monday games. Kawhi Leonard had a bad Game 2 and while his numbers should be better tonight, Denver seems to have developed a defensive strategy for him. Paul George can’t be consistently relied on as a second scoring option. We think its Denver that’s likely to have a better offensive performance tonight. Play on DENVER

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This is a 10* on DENVER

The Nuggets look to rebound from a poor Game 1 effort where they were at the disadvantage of only having one day between series while the Clippers had three. Still, it wasn’t just a matter of rest in the 120-97 defeat. Denver shot the ball horribly, especially from “downtown” as they were 9 of 36 on all three-point attempts. Overall, they shot 42.2% while the Clippers were at 57.1%. We won’t claim that the Nuggets are a great defensive team, but they’ll definitely allow a lower shooting percentage Saturday in Game 2. Denver has cashed the L6 times they have been down in a playoff series including a 3-0 ATS this year. Note that the Clippers failed to cover off their first two wins in the first round series with Dallas, losing outright both times. This is a lot of points for the Nuggets to be getting and while it may not have been nearly enough in Game 1, improved shooting coupled with some obvious regression from the Clippers should lead to at least a cover this time. Play on DENVER

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This is a 10* on MIAMI

Miami has seized control of this series and there has been nothing remotely fluky about it. Well, Jimmy Butler getting to shoot a pair of “walkoff” free throws in Game 2 might seem a bit fluky. But remember that situation came after a somewhat improbable late game run by the Bucks. The Heat have held the league’s highest scoring offense to just 109 points per game. Going back to the regular season, they have had Milwaukee’s number, winning four of the five meetings. The only loss came here in the bubble and even then the Heat led that game by 17 at halftime. Miami is now 6-0 ATS in the NBA Playoffs and has allowed 104 points or less in four of those wins. Milwaukee is the East’s #1 seed, but they’ve looked like an inferior side the first two games. Quite frankly, they haven’t looked right this whole time in the bubble. They’re only 5-9-1 ATS with three of the covers coming against Orlando. They are also just 3-8 SU when you take out that first round series. Play on MIAMI

AAA

This is a 10* on DENVER

While Denver was taken to a 7th game by Utah, a series that just wrapped up Tuesday, let us also not forget the Clippers went six games against the Dallas Mavericks. These teams did meet earlier in the bubble with the Clippers winning 124-111. But they were only four point favorites for that game and trailed by eight at the half. This Game 1 number certainly seems to be inflated as far as we’re concerned. That’s probably due to the two fewer days of rest that Denver and the fact they were just the 12th team in NBA history to win a series in which it trailed 3-1. But Gary Harris is back for them now. Jamal Murray had three straight games of more than 42 points before Game 7 vs. Utah. Twice he went for 50. The Nuggets have covered six of the last nine times they’ve been getting points. The Clippers can be inconsistent, sometimes taking “nights off” and there are scoring issues behind Kawhi Leonard. This is too many points. Play on DENVER

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This is an 8* on DENVER

The Nuggets are one more loss away from their season ending. This was also the case heading into Game 5 which they won 117-107 to stay alive. Before staying alive in Game 5, we took the points with Denver in Game 4 and they also covered the spread there. They are now 5-0 ATS the last two seasons when trailing in a playoff series after covering the last two games. Utah is 5-12 ATS when coming off an outright loss as a favorite this year. They are just 1-4 ATS when leading in a playoff series the last two years. The Jazz have very little to offer offensively other than Donovan Mitchell, something that has become readily obvious in their two SU losses in this series. Play on DENVER

AAA

This is a 10* on PORTLAND

Portland won’t have Damian Lillard as they try and stave off elimination in tonight’s Game 5 against the Lakers. After an 8-2 start to the bubble, they’ve lost three straight games, two of them by 20 or more points. None of the preceding sounds good for tonight. But, predictably, there’s been an overreaction by the oddsmakers here in the wake of the Lillard injury. They had to do it as the public will overwhelmingly bet the Lakers here. But we’re not convinced the line move should have been 7 points. Even without their best player, look for Portland to compete. Beyond its two stars - LeBron and Anthony Davis - the Lakers don’t have much depth, especially in the backcourt. Los Angeles is also a poor three-point shooting team. They made 56.3% of their shots in Game 4, a number they won’t come close to matching tonight. Games 2 and 4 are the only double digit wins the Lakers have in the bubble. The Blazers have some players, notably CJ McCollum, who can step up. They are 4-1 ATS off a double digit loss. We think the extra time between games well help the Blazers adjust to "life without Lillard." Play on PORTLAND

AAA

This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE

While Orlando did pull the upset in Game One, things have quickly (and predictably) swung in Milwaukee’s favor in this series. Now the top-seeded Bucks can take a commanding 3-1 series advantage and there’s really no doubt in our minds that will happen. They are of course big favorites to beat the Magic in Game Four Monday afternoon and why wouldn’t they be? The last two games have seen them hold halftime advantages of 21 and 27 points. The Bucks shot 56.1% in Game Three, an uber-efficient performance where Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 35 pts on 12 of 14 shooting. The Magic are short-handed and have covered only 4 of their last 17 games vs. teams with a winning record. The Bucks are 6-2 ATS when leading in a playoff series and while this is a lot of points to lay, they are just that much better than their opponents here. This series likely ends in five games and Milwaukee will win big today. Play on MILWAUKEE

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This is a 10* on DENVER

The Nuggets have quickly gone from favorites to underdogs in this series as they’ve lost the last two games by a combined 56 points. If that sounds bad, well it is. But it's not over yet for Denver as they did win Game 1 (in overtime) and a win here would even the series back up. You have to think the Nuggets are going to shoot better than they did in Game 3. They made just 37.5% of their total attempts including only 12 of 38 three-pointers. The big story was the return of Mike Conley for Utah as he made seven threes on his way to a 27-point game. The Jazz have been somewhat inconsistent on offense during their time in the bubble as they definitely miss 2nd leading scorer Bogdanovic. Now it's Denver hoping for a return (Gary Harris) on Sunday as they look to move to 4-0 ATS the last four times they have been trailing in a playoff series. Utah is just 4-15-2 ATS the last 21 times it has been a favorite and they’re just 2-6 ATS coming off an ATS win. Play on DENVER

AAA

This is a 10* on PORTLAND

After upsetting the Lakers in Game 1, Portland got run out of the gym in Game 2. They were down 30 after three quarters and lost 111-88 in what was easily their worst showing in the NBA bubble. Previous to that, the Blazers had lost only twice and those two losses were by a total of nine points. After scoring at least 124 in all but one seeding game, they’ve been held to an average of 94 points/game by the Lakers. We like them to bounce back in Game 3 and at the very least keep it close. Game 2 aside, the Lakers have not played all that well in the bubble as they are just 2-8 against the spread with six outright defeats. Offensive efficiency is way down, especially when LeBron James is off the court. They have just two wins by more than three points since the restart and have failed to hit 100 four different times. A second straight blowout seems unlikely, so grab the points. Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 10* on PORTLAND

Portland shocked a lot of people by beating the Lakers 100-93 in Game 1, but not us. This team came into the bubble needing to win almost every game and that’s exactly what they have done. They’ve gone 8-2 in their 10 games with the only two losses coming by a combined nine points. That the Blazers were able to win Game 1 despite a poor offensive night has to scare the Lakers. Portland shot just 39.2% Tuesday night, a far cry from the multiple 124+ point efforts we’ve seen from them in Orlando. As for the Lakers, they are 1-8 ATS in the bubble and struggling to make shots. They haven’t even hit 100 four different times. Their shooting percentage and offensive efficiency, particularly when LeBron James is off the court, has been woeful. We just don’t see how LA is going to win by more than what the oddsmakers are calling for here, if they even win at all tonight. Besides James and Anthony Davis, the rest of the Lakers combined for just 42 points on 32.1% shooting in Game 1. Since the restart, the top seed has ONE win by more than three points. Play on PORTLAND

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This is an 8* on HOUSTON

Houston was our Game of the Month on Tuesday and they came through with flying colors, clobbering Oklahoma City by a score of 123-108 and it wasn’t even that close as the Rockets led by 21 going into the fourth. This despite not having the services of Russell Westbrook, but we projected James Harden to have a big game and that’s exactly what happened as “The Beard” delivered a 37-point effort. He’s certainly capable of scoring even more than that and we think he will in Game 2. Even without Westbrook, Houston is the better team here. The Thunder overachieved both before and after the restart, but this could be a quick series if they’re not careful. You’ll notice that OKC is now the underdog after opening as the slightest favorite for Game 1. While priced more appropriately, we still don’t like the Thunder’s chances in this one as Gallinari had a career-high 29 points in Game 1 and that didn’t matter. His chances of matching that number this afternoon are slim at best. The Rockets are simply the better team. Play on HOUSTON

AAA

This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA

Philadelphia lost Game 1 109-101 and failed to cover as 6.5-point underdogs. All told, it wasn’t that disappointing a performance as the Sixers led going into the 4th quarter. That is when they went cold. The good news is they held Boston to just 42% shooting and it took every bit of Jayson Tatum’s career playoff highs of 32 points and 13 rebounds to get the Celtics the ‘W.’ While the 76ers are without Ben Simmons, they still should compete in this series and we like them plus the points in Game 2. Late in Game 1, Gordon Hayward suffered a severe ankle sprain, meaning Boston will be without him for likely four weeks. That’s a big loss. The Celtics are not a deep team. Including Hayward, they have just six players that rate better than average in terms of RPM.  They are just 1-4 ATS off the last five ATS wins and we’re going “zig zag” here. Play on PHILADELPHIA

AAA

This is a 10* on HOUSTON

Houston will be without Russell Westbrook for an indefinite period of time, but let’s not forget that Harden fellow and what he’s capable of doing. The Rockets did lose their last three games, but really had nothing to play for and that should be taken into account. Before that, they’d started the bubble 4-1 straight up and against the spread. Oklahoma City went 4-4 in its eight games as well, albeit in much different fashion. They alternated wins and losses the entire way, meaning not one time did they win OR lose back to back games. They are hoping that pattern continues as it would mean a win here. But we feel differently as the Rockets are being undervalued because of the Westbrook absence. Certainly that matters, but Harden has averaged 35.3 points, 9.2 rebounds and 8.7 assists in the bubble with a 53.2 FG%. Two other Rockets have had 40+ point games this year, one of the Austin Rivers’ whose career-high 41 point effort came in the bubble. Houston has enough to get the job done and Oklahoma City hasn’t really had all of its pieces together here in Orlando with Schroeder missing time and Adams hurt. Chris Paul has a hand injury worth monitoring as well. Play on HOUSTON

AAA

This is a 10* on DALLAS

Dallas is just 3-5 since the restart while the Clippers have gone 5-3. It’s a tough break that a team as talented as the Mavericks fell to the 7-seed and drew a first round matchup with Los Angeles. But it is also a bit of a “tough draw” for the Clippers. The Mavs are one of the top offensive teams in the league and pose a threat that other potential first round opponents (like Utah or Oklahoma City) would not have. These teams met on August 6th and while LA won 126-111, it was a tie game with just over six minutes remaining. That’s with the Clippers shooting exceptionally well and the Mavs having an “off game” at the offensive end. Luka Doncic is averaging a triple double in the bubble with 32 points/game. The Mavericks have averaged 125 points/game since returning and that makes them a “tough out” as an underdog. The spread was only 3.5 when these teams met 11 days ago. Nothing has really changed significantly for either side since then, so the dog screams VALUE. Play on DALLAS

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This is an 8* on PHILADELPHIA

It’s a battle of backups Wednesday but we’re counting on the Sixers showing a little pride in this early evening matchup against the Raptors. It’s not like Philadelphia has played poorly its last two games, where they have been almost entirely without the services of Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid. Simmons’ season is now over while Embiid was hurt early in the 124-121 loss to Portland Sunday night. Yesterday saw Philly compete for 3+ quarters against a highly motivated Suns squad. This is a lot of points to lay with a Raptors team that has nothing to play for as they are locked into the Eastern Conference’s second seed. Coming off an impressive win against Milwaukee on Monday, their level of motivation for this one can certainly be called into question. Their last four victories have come by an average of just 7.5 points/game. Play on PHILADELPHIA

AAA

This is an 6* on PHOENIX

The Suns have been the hottest team in the league since the restart. They’re 5-0 SU/ATS, which has them on the cusp of the Western Conference’s play-in scenario. Finishing 8th and not 9th has its advantages in that you only have to win once (as opposed to twice) to make the playoffs. But right now the Suns just need to keep winning as they are 10th, a full game behind 9th place Portland (won Sunday) and 1.5 games back of 8th place Memphis (lost yesterday) They’ve already beaten four teams with .500 or better records here in Orlando, the latest being Miami by a score of 119-112 - as a 4-point favorite - on Saturday. They were led by Devin Booker’s 35 points. We have to admit that it was a bit eye-opening to see the Suns open as the favorite here and get bet up. But they’ll have more motivation than the Thunder, who also are at the disadvantage of having played yesterday. Oklahoma City won Sunday, 121-103, but don’t put a ton of stock into that as they played Washington (worst team in the bubble). They also made a season-high 18 three-pointers, shooting that won’t be matched today. Unlike all the other teams competing for the 8-seed, Phoenix can claim to have a positive net efficiency rating for the year. This team has the momentum and you should expect them to win Monday afternoon. Play on PHOENIX

AAA

This is a 10* on HOUSTON

Houston is likely to finish anywhere from 4th to 6th when the “regular season” concludes. Normally, finishing 4th would be a big deal as it would earn you home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. But there is no home court advantage any more. Despite that lack of incentive, we still expect the Rockets to “go off” on Sunday against a Kings team that is prone to far too many defensive lapses. Time is running out on the Kings to finish in a position where they could play themselves into the postseason. The way things stand now, they’d have to jump four teams. It’s not mathematically impossible by any means, however, it’s highly unlikely considering the Kings record thus far is 1-4 and they just lost to Brooklyn by double digits. Houston has beaten both Milwaukee and the Lakers and while LA didn’t have LeBron, the Rockets didn’t have Russell Westbrook in that game either. Westbrook is again expected to sit out here but with James Harden still in the lineup, you can look for Houston to score plenty against the team that’s posted the worst defensive efficiency rating in the league since the restart. The Rockets are off three straight Unders and have gone 6-1 ATS in that situation this season. Play on HOUSTON

AAA

This is an 8* on PORTLAND

Saturday was a blown opportunity for the Blazers as they led a lead get away and lost to the Clippers, who were playing without Kawhi Leonard. This leaves them 1.5 games behind Memphis for the 8th spot in the West. The Grizzlies are heavy underdogs to the Raptors today, so a win here could very well pull Portland back within one-half game. All they have to do is finish 9th to force a play-in but finishing 8th has its advantages. Also the Blazers must worry about all the teams that are narrowly behind them as finishing 9th is far from a given. Bottom line is that today is “must-win” territory against a Sixers team that was already offensively challenged before losing Ben Simmons. Philadelphia is 3-1 SU in the bubble, but only 1-3 ATS. This will be the first time that the 76ers have been an underdog in a game. They are just 6-16 SU in the underdog role for the season and among those still playing, they have the worst road record of any team besides Washington. Portland really has to have this game. Play on PORTLAND

AAA

This is a 10* on TORONTO 

The defending NBA Champion Raptors don’t get the respect they deserve, but they are very likely to get the East’s #2 seed. They can clinch that position with a win tonight over Boston, who is in the #3 spot and likely to finish there. Going back to before the lockdown, Toronto has won seven in a row. That is the longest active win streak in the NBA. They’ve won their three games in Orlando by holding opponents to an average of 98 points/game. That’s remarkable considering how much scoring we’ve seen in the bubble. Even scarier is that Kyle Lowry has shot just 4 for 17 from the field the last two games. Look for his shooting to improve tonight. Boston was red hot shooting the ball Tuesday (56.8 FG%!) but that was against a weak Brooklyn team. The Celtics have issues defending as they’ve given up 112 points in every game so far. Their interior defense was a big question mark heading into the restart and remain so. The Raptors are 29-19 ATS as favorites this season. Play on TORONTO

AAA

This is a 10* on PHOENIX

Phoenix shocked the Clippers on Tuesday, winning the game outright, 117-115 as a 9.5-point underdog. While they did need a Devin Booker “walkoff,” the Suns led the game most of the way and were pretty impressive. They’re now 3-0 since the restart with wins over two playoff teams (Dallas, Clippers) as they try and force their way into a play-in scenario for the 8-seed. Indiana is also 3-0 SU/ATS in the bubble as Victor Oladipo reversed course on a prior decision and has decided to play here in Orlando. The Pacers looked very good in their last game, a 120-109 win over Orlando, but it’s worth mentioning they’ve yet to face a team from the West here in the bubble. The Pacers and Suns have a common win over Washington, but the Suns other two wins (Dallas, Clippers) are far more impressive than the Pacers’ (Philly, Orlando). The Suns did lose badly to the Pacers at home back in January, but are 15-7 ATS this year when seeking revenge for a home defeat. We think the Suns are a good value here. Play on PHOENIX

AAA

This is a 10* on PORTLAND

Houston is 2-0 since the restart with wins over Dallas and Milwaukee. Impressive as that sounds, the Rockets trailed by double digits in both games. They were down 11 entering the 4th quarter vs. the Mavericks and needed all of James Harden’s 49 points to pull out a 152-149 overtime victory. Against the Bucks, the much maligned defense once again stepped up late. It is impressive that the Rockets could beat the Bucks despite shooting below 40% but we also don’t think they can keep winning in the manner we’ve seen the first two games. Portland has also played two close games, but split the pair. They were down big to Boston on Sunday, but fought back to make it only a 4-point loss. That was after they beat Memphis in overtime in the first game. Currently in ninth place in the Western Conference, the Blazers are well within the four-games of 8th place Memphis to force a play-in series. Still they really could use the win here as they neck and neck with San Antonio for ninth place. Portland beat Houston twice in the regular season so they’re capable of winning outright again.They are healthier now than they were back then. The Rockets are 2-5 ATS this year coming off an upset win.  Play on PORTLAND

AAA

This is an 8* on NEW ORLEANS

Two teams that are 0-2 since the restart will go at it Monday in Orlando. Memphis faces the more uphill climb here. They played yesterday. It was a 108-106 to the Spurs, a bit of a “double whammy” as that result allowed the Spurs to move within two games of the eighth place Grizzlies. Many thought the Pelicans were going to be the team to chase the Grizz down, but obviously they’re trending in a different direction. It’s a case of Zion Williamson not playing much and going against two good teams. The Pelicans blew a double digit loss vs. Utah, then were embarrassed by the Clippers. Still those are both top four teams in the Western Conference. The teams Memphis lost to are 9th and 10th. This is a must win for the Pelicans, who are 3.5 back of the Grizzlies. With Memphis just 24 hours removed from a tough 2-point loss, they’re in a tough spot. They also played an overtime game Friday. The Pelicans beat the Grizzlies both times they played in the regular season. Both wins were by double digits. The Pelicans have covered 13 of their last 16 vs. teams with winning records. Look for Williamson to be more of a factor today.This team was embarrassed Saturday and will want to make up for that. Play on NEW ORLEANS

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This is a 10* on HOUSTON

Houston needed every bit of James Harden’s 49 points on Friday to overcome a terrible defensive effort in what ended up being a 153-149 overtime win over Dallas. The Rockets trailed by double digits entering the 4th Quarter, but were then able to hold the Mavericks to just 30 points over the final 17 minutes. The fact Houston played so poorly on the defensive end and had to overcome a late deficit should not bias you here though. While they’re facing Milwaukee, the Bucks won’t have guards Eric Bledsoe and Pat Connaughton, so there is a depth issue. The Bucks looked good against Boston Friday, winning 119-112, though Giannis Antetounkmpo probably should have gotten ejected. Also the Bucks raced to a 17-2 lead out of the game, which was the difference in the game. Houston won’t shoot as poorly as the Celtics did (40.7%) and an offensive team like this getting points is a great opportunity. Play on HOUSTON

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This is a 10* on OKC

The Jazz have already played once, a 106-104 come from behind win over the Pelicans. That preserved their status as the West’s 4th place team for the meantime but a lot can change over the next seven games as they are part of a five-team mess separated by just 3.5 games. Also in that group is Oklahoma City, who has not played yet. The Thunder are 2-0 ATS vs. the Jazz this year, part of an overall 39-24-1 mark at the betting window that is the league’s best. Most impressive of all is that the Thunder are 23-8 ATS on the road. Utah winning that game Thursday night should not make you forget that they trailed by as much as 16 points or that they are without second leading scorer Bojan Bogdanovic, whose 41.4% three-point shooting will sorely be missed. 10* OKLAHOMA CITY

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This is a 10* on GMU

The Atlantic 10 Tournament has a clear favorite in Dayton and everybody else probably needs to win this thing in order to make the Big Dance. The longest “road to hoe” belongs to the bottom four, a group which both St. Joseph’s and George Mason can claim to be a part of. These two squads have combined for a total of five wins going back to late January. George Mason has three to St. Joe’s two, the difference being a 62-55 head to head win back on February 22nd. The Patriots just missed out on covering that day as they were 8.5-point favorites. But we like them with a small number attached to them today. Regardless if it’s a true road game or on a neutral court, St. Joe’s has just two wins away from home all season. They give up almost 80 points/game as well. George Mason has won and covered all three of its games in a neutral setting this year. They held St. Joe’s to 33.9% shooting in the regular season game. Play on GEORGE MASON

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This is a 10* on MEMPHIS

Perhaps no team in the entire NBA has defied expectations more than Memphis Grizzlies have. Projected to win only 27 games this season, they’ve already surpassed that number (they’ve won 32 games) and seem poised to make the playoffs as the 8-seed in the Western Conference. The Grizzlies aren’t favored very often, but be sure to take them when they are. Not only do they boast a 14-4 straight up record in the chalk role, they are also 13-5 against the spread. Tonight they host an Orlando team that is 7-1 ATS its last eight games and off a big upset win in Houston. But considering that was only the sixth time the Magic won as an underdog this year, we will gladly lay the short number in this game. Tonight marks the Magic’s 4th road game in the past 7 nights. Play on MEMPHIS

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This is a 10* on UNC

North Carolina has endured one of the worst single season free falls that we have ever seen. After starting the 2019-20 season 5-0 and ranked in the Top 10, they ended up losing 18 of their final 26 regular season games and in a three-way tie for last in the ACC. But now the ACC Tournament begins and that gives the Tar Heels a “clean slate.” Before losing the final regular season game at Duke, UNC had won and covered its last three games. So there were some signs of a potential breakthrough. The first round tournament opponent is Virginia Tech. They lost to the Hokies 79-77 in January, but did cover the 7.5-point spot. This time UNC is favored as the game isn’t in Blacksburg. Since it defeated UNC, Va Tech has won just twice in 12 games. They are 3-8 straight up and against the spread as underdogs. This spot screams “Tar Heels!” Play on NORTH CAROLINA

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