This is a 10* UNDERDOG TOP PLAY on Fresno State.

Frenso State has just one win this year and it came on its home floor. The Bulldogs return to Fresno State to play in front of the home town crowd off an 0-4 road trip and I think will keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. This is a revenge game as well, California beat Fresno State 67-56 back on December 14th, 2013 in Berkeley. The Bulldogs are led by junior guard Marvelle Harris with 14.3 PPG; Julien Lewis is averaging 16.0 PPG. The Bears are 4-1 on the year, with wins over Syracuse, Cal Poly and a loss to then No. 10 Texas most recently. In my opinion, a little home cooking is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked, with 16 home games last year, Fresno State went 11-5 at the Save Mart Center. Note that California is 10-12 ATS in its last 22 after allowing 60 points or less and just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 vs. teams with losing records. And note that Fresno State is 3-2 ATS its last five as a home dog of 6.5 to 9 points and 13-7 ATS in its last 20 vs. good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less per contest. Grab as many points as you can, play on FRESNO STATE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* UNDERDOG DESTRUCTION on Illinois Chicago.

I think UIC can keep this one competitive enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. The Flames are coming off a convincing 87-76 win over Saint Xavier last time out and I think can keep the offensive momentum rolling here. Note that UIC had three players reach double digits, junior Jake Wiegand led the way with 20 points and 12 boards, his third double-double of the season. As a team the Flames shot 42.9 percent from behind the arc and also scored 27 second-chance points off a season-high 18 offensive boards. After a historic run to the Elite Eight in last year’s NCAA tournament, Dayton has started with a 3-1 record so far, holding its weaker competition to an average of just 58.2 PPG. However, I think this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the home side, note that Flyers are just 4-7 ATS in their last 11 when playing with five or six days of rest, while UIC is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a road dog of 12.5 points or more. The situation, the numbers and the trends all point to the FLAMES as the savvy move here.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Dallas Mavericks.

A couple of the league’s best go head to head and as you can tell by the spread, the oddsmakers think this game will come down to the wire. So do I and as such, I’m going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can in this one. Toronto has won six straight and hasn’t won seven in a row since Vince Carter’s reign North of the border. Both teams can put the rock in the hole, I don’t see any point in talking about or analyzing individual player matchups on the offensive end of the court. For me, this is mainly a situationally based play: Dallas comes in with momentum, it had lost two in a row before rallying past New York in Wednesday’s 109-102 win in OT. This is also a big contest for Dallas as it’s the first stop on a four-game road trip. And lastly, Dallas plays with double revenge after losing both in the series last year, Toronto overcoming deficits of at least 19 points in each victory. Note that the Mavs are 4-2 ATS on the road already this year and 2-1 ATS vs. good offensive teams which average 99-plus points per contest. And note that Toronto is just 12-14 ATS in its last 26 after three or more consecutive SU wins. While the outright win isn’t out of the question obviously, grab the points; play on DALLAS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Charlotte Hornets.

This is a great situationally based selection. Desperation breeds motivation and I think the Hornets will keep this one close enough to at the very least sneak in through the back door with the large spread they’ve been afforded tonight. I think this sets up as a letdown spot for the surging Warriors, they’ve won seven straight. Conversely, Charlotte already has its back against the wall at this point of the season as it’s lost seven straight. This is also a “revenge” game for the home side after it fell 112-87 in Golden State on November 15th. Note that the Hornets weren’t overly horrible in their 105-97 setback to red-hot Portland on Wednesday as Brian Roberts come off the bench to score a career-high 24, while big man Al Jefferson added 21 points and 14 boards. Interestingly, the Warriors have dropped 13 of the last 15 in Charlotte and are just 28-31 ATS the last two seasons after a victory by ten points or more. And note that Charlotte has been money in this spot for bettors, 5-3 ATS in its last eight following a non-conference contest. While I won’t go so far as to call for the outright upset, I do definitely feel that the conditions are right for a highly competitive affair and will ultimately recommend in grabbing as many points as you can; play on the HORNETS.

AAA Sports 

This is a 10* ATS BLOWOUT on Washington.

The Huskies head out of State for the first time this year to participate in the 2014 DirecTV Wooden Legacy Tournament held in Anaheim Califorinia and open with San Jose State at Titan Gym on the campus of Cal State Fullerton. This contest is the night cap and will be televised nationally on ESPN 2 and suffice it to say, I like Washington to make an example of the Spartans today. The dogs certainly come in with momentum, they’re 3-0 SU to start the year for the first time since 2011-12 and have three players averaging in double figures, including Shawn Kemp Jr (15.7), Andrew Andrews (13.7) and Nigel Williams-Goss (12.7). Washington is a big team and I simply can’t see San Jose State keeping pace down the stretch; note that the groups winspan is 4.5 inches longer than their actual height. The Huskies can get the job done at both ends of the court as well, they’re currently first in the conference and 46th in the country in fewest turnovers and are second in the Pac-12 and 45th nationally in fewest fouls. The Spartans have lost three-straight SU and have really struggled to find any offensive consistency; note that San Jose State is averaging just 59.3 points on 38.2 percent shooting, while giving up 68.7 points on 39.9 percent shooting. Frank Rogers leads San Jose State with 11.7 points and 7.7 boards. Also note that that Spartans are turning the ball over 18 times per game; and note that San Jose State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five neautral site games. This is a completely lop-sided matchup, I think Washington comes in focused in its first game away from friendly confines and pulls away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover; play on the HUSKIES.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on Penn State.

Penn State returns home to the Bryce Jordan Center to host Akron, it’s coming off a fifth-place finish at the eight-team Charleston Classic in Charleston, S.C. The Nittany Lions would rebound from a double-OT loss to Charlotte on Thursday to defeat Cornell on Friday on a last second winner from DJ Newbill and then edge Southern California Sunday. The two victories stand as the first multi-win effort at a neutral-site, regular season tournament for Penn State since 2000. Newbill dominated and I think will be unstoppable today, he produced 83 points over three games, a Charleston Classic record; Newbill is averaging 23.6 on the season. The Zips come in at 3-1 after going 2-1 at the Charleston Classic and finishing third. Akron would beat Southern California, before falling to Miami 79-51 on Friday, and then outlast South Carolina 68-63 on Sunday. I think a little home cooking is just what the doctor ordered for Penn State to keep the positive momentum rolling, note that the Nittany Lions are 16-12 ATS in their last 28 vs. good defensive teams which allow an average of 64 points or less, while Akron is just 8-14 ATS in its last 22 true road contests. In my opinion, this line should be a little higher, play on PENN STATE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* TOP PLAY on Oakland.

The Western Carolina Catamounts are 1-2 SU, but 3-0 ATS. The Oakland Grizzlies are 0-3 SU and ATS. Suffice it to say, despite lacking on the defensive side of the ball, I like the Grizzlies to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night, pulling away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Western Carolina is coming off its first win of the season, a 72-53 effort over the lowly Hiwassee College Tigers this past Friday; James Sinclair led the way with 25 points and 9 boards. As a whole though, the Catamounts are struggling on the glass, just 31.3 RPG thus far. Oakland is coming off an 82-71 loss to Western Michigan and has had a brutal schedule to start the season. While the Grizzlies have struggled defensively, the offense is definitely firing on all cylinders, led by senior forward Corey Petros who is averaging 14.7 points and 8.3 boards per game. Beyond Sinclair, I can’t see the Catamounts keeping up with the Grizzlies today, this is the first of three games in three days in the CBE Hall of Fame Classic and I like the home side to give its crowd a solid victory; play on OAKLAND.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* PLATINUM CLUB on SMU.

For a number of different motivational, situational and trend based resaons, I expect SMU to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover today. Mustangs’ coach Larry Brown said that he was “sick to his stomach” after the 23rd-ranked team lost for the second time in their first three games this year: "I'm looking at this as an opportunity for other people to step up," said Brown yesterday. "I saw some kids making progress and moving in the right direction. We don't have a leader right now. Everybody is worrying about playing time and different things that really don't matter. But we'll get it straightened out." Eastern Washington is coming off three straight blowout wins and I think comes in a bit complacent here and runs into a buzzsaw, a focused and determined home side looking to take out its frustrations on someone. And note that despite being a heavily sized underdog today, this in fact sets up as a lookahead spot for the visitors with Indiana on deck on Monday. Note that it’s interesting to note that the Eagles don’t have any seniors on their roster. And note that Eastern Washington is 0-3 ATS the last two seasons as a road dog in the 12.5 to 15 points range, while SMU is 6-2 ATS in its last eight as a home fav of 12.5 points or more. All signs point to Browns’ team focusing on the task at hand and pulling off the convincing victory; play ont he MUSTANGS.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* UNDERDOG SUPER PLAY on the Minnesota Timberwolves.

I think the Spurs come in a bit complacent here and the underachieving home side at least keeps it close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the healthy amount of points it’s been afforded here. Missing a few key pieces, the Wolves would get a season-high 37 points from Kevin Martin and pull away for a 115-99 win over New York on Wednesday to snap a five-game slide. San Antonio has won five of six, including a 92-90 win at Cleveland on Wednesday, playing over its head with Marco Belinelli, Matt Bonner, Tiago Splitter and Patty Mills all sitting because of injury. San Antonio is notorious in playing down to the level of its competition and I think comes out a bit flat here; note that the Spurs are just 2-4 ATS as a favorite this year, while the Wolves are already 3-0 ATS at home this season and 2-0 ATS after scoring 105 points or more in their previous contest. While I won’t call for an outright upset win, I do definitely feel this is too many points to be giving up, play on MINNESOTA.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Toronto Raptors.

Both of these teams are playing well but I think the home side will take care of business and pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover once the final horn sounds. Milwaukee hasn’t won three straight on the road in over two years and I don’t think will be able to knock off the top dog in the East today. Toronto is coming off a convincing 96-92 home win over Memphis on Wednesday, another big fourth quarter was the difference as the team is averaging an NBA-best plus-5.4 margin in the final frame. Also note that the Raptors are allowing just 21.2 PPG in the final 12 minutes and have outscored all but two teams, sporting a plus-53 advantage in their last five. Let’s give the Bucks credit, they look a lot better this year, but I think this sets up as a classic letdown spot after Wednesday’s 122-118 triple OT win at Brooklyn. This is a big game for Toronto as it looks to close out a seven-game home stand on a strong point; note that the Raptors are allowing just 93.4 PPG while going 7-1 at the Air Canada Centre. And note that Milwaukee is 1-5 ATS in its last six after three consecutive victories, while Toronto is already 5-3 ATS this year in front of the home town crowd. Look for the RAPTORS to do just enough to cover this spread.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Charlotte Hornets.

The Magic are coming off a beatdown loss at home at the hands of the Clippers and I think are ripe for the picking here as well. As I like to say, desperation breeds motivation and I think the Hornets leave it all on the court today as they look to avoid a season-high fourth straight loss. Charlotte will be extra motivated here as well after the way it lost last time out, giving up the decisive basket with just 0.7 seconds left in the 88-86 setback to Indiana on Wednesday. Note that Orlando has really struggled in this spot for quite some time, a deplorable 29-50 ATS the last two seasons when playing against a team with a losing record and just 14-18 ATS in its last 32 divisional contests. And note that this is a spot that the Hornets have excelled in, already 2-0 ATS vs. division opponents this year, they’re also 3-2 ATS in their last five as a home fav in the 3.5 to 6 points range. In my opinion, this line should be a lot higher, play on CHARLOTTE.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* SUPER-BLOWOUT on the LA Clippers.

This is a big game for the Clippers who play the first of seven on the road and suffice it to say, I like this underachieving visiting side to take control of this contest from the outset and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. LA will be extra motivated here as it looks to avoid back-to-back losses for the first time this year, most recently coming off a listless 105-89 setback to Chicago on Monday. It was a pathetic effort, it was the second time in three games that the Clippers were held to under 90 points, already matching their total from last year. Orlando has actually played the Clippers tough recently, they’d split both meetings in each of the last two seasons. Orlando has played better than expected at 5-7, living and dying with the 3-ball, knocking down a season-high 13 in 26 attempts in Monday’s 107-93 win at Detroit. However, take note that Orlando has struggled in this spot for bettors for a LONG time, it’s a deplorable 36-48 ATS the last two seasons in front of the home town crowd and oddly enough, just 29-44 ATS in the same time frame vs. poor defensive teams which give up 99-plus points per game. Conversely, this is a position that the Clippers have been money in, 15-5 ATS in their last 20 as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points and 24-15 ATS in their last 39 off an upset loss as a favorite. As I said off the top, this is a very important game for LA, while I also think this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the Magic; play on the CLIPPERS.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* NON-CONFERENCE SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the New York Knicks.

The Knicks have won six straight in this series and are looking to avoid falling to 1-5 at the Garden this year: "Losing is tough," said Carmello Anthony after the Knicks’ 97-95 home loss to Orlando on Wednesday. "I thought this was a game we could have went out there and gotten tonight, kind of get that monkey off our back. So this is a tough one to swallow." A date vs. the Jazz is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked, New York has won six straight over Utah by an average of 17.5 points, Anthony has led the charge in averaging 31.5 points on 55.3 percent shooting in two victories last year. This is a tough spot then for the visitors who are making their fourth stop on a five-game trip, Wednesday’s 100-97 loss in Atlanta capped an embarrassing nine-point fourth quarter effort. Note that Utah is just 26-34 ATS the last two seasons after a non-conference game, while New York is 18-15 ATS in its last 33 off an upset loss as a favorite. I think the conditions are finally right for the struggling KNICKS to put it all together and look them to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* NON-CONFERENCE SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Denver Nuggets.

As primarily a situational handicapper, these are exactly the types of “situations” that I look for as I think that the home side is going to have a “letdown” here after it’s big win on the road over the Miami Heat. Conversely, the Nuggest come in desperate for a victory and as I’ve always said: “Desperation breeds motivation!” While the outright win is obviously not out of the question in my opinion, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. I think the Pacers come in a bit complacent here, they’re coming off back-to-back wins, while the Nuggets haven’t tasted victory since an 89-79 season opening win over the Pistons. Denver actually ranks near the top of the league with 101.5 possessions per 48 minutes, but is 29th in the league in points allowed: "It's not offensively, it's defense, and defense is about effort," head coach Brian Shaw said last night. "As a coach, I have to find a way to get that kind of defensive effort consistently out of whoever it is that I put out there." From a trend based stand-point, this is definitely a solid selection as well, note the Denver is 47-40 ATS the last two seasons following after scoring 105 points or more, while Indiana is a poor 9-15 ATS in its last 24 off an upset win as an underdog. Look for the NUGGETS to come away with at least the ATS cover.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* BLOCKBUSTER on Yale.

Yale would hit a game winning 3-pointer to beat Quinnipiac 69-68 in the opening round of the CIT last year and I think will better that performance today. It’s early in the season (obviously, haha, opening night!), so for the most part individual player match-ups are meaningless in my process at this point of the season. I base my picks at the start of any sport on a different set of criteria, including scheduling, past results and lop-sided trends and numbers. I love taking advantage of the “revenge” angle as well, but in this case, I simply think that Yale is too deep and too talented, it returns the majority of its players from last season and was picked to finish second in the competitive Ivy League conference: “We have a really great opportunity this year because we have everyone returning from our starting five,” guard Armani Cotton said. “Guys know the playbook a little bit better, and it helps the new guys get quickly integrated into what we are doing because we have more than one leader on the floor at a time. Repetition is key for doing anything at a high level.” Keep your eyes on forward Justin Sears, who is a player of the year candidate this season and who averaged 16.9 points per game last; note Sears also led the team with 1.9 blocks per game and 6.9 rebounds per contest: “This could be our best opportunity,” Sears said. “We know if we’re going to win, now is the time to do it … We know we belong this year, and if we put it all together, I think it puts us over Harvard.” The Bobcats have been chosen to finish sixth in the MAAC. After finishing third in its inaugural year in the MAAC, Quinnipiac enters the 2014/15 season with more questions than answers in my opinion. The biggest one is how the team will fair without Ike Azotam in the line-up, he averaged 16.3 points, 10.2 boards and 1.1 blocks per game as a senior. So while the team lacks a big game player like Azotam, it does return a few starters from last year, that depth will obviously benefit it over the course of the season. However, a game in front of the home town crowd vs. the seasoned Bulldogs on opening night smells like “choke city” to me, I think the proven visitors are worth backing in this one. Play on YALE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Detroit Pistons.

Detroit has already foiled me twice this year, two late collapses which saw it unable to cover the spread. The Pistons have yet to cover the spread once yet this year but I think can finally keep this one close enough to at the very least sneak in through the back door down the stretch with that I feel is a healthy amount of points that they’ve been afforded in this one. The Wizards are off to a great start, but note that they haven’t won six of their first eight games since 1975. Note that these teams split the four-game series last year. Washington has been getting the job done defensively, meaning that Detroit needs to up its game here; the Pistons averaged 101 PPG last year, but rank 29th in the NBA with 91.9 this season. In fact, Detroit and New York are the only two teams left to yet score 100 points in a game this year; suffice it to say, I think that trend ends today, as the Pistons last went eight games without scoring 100 points in 2011. From a trend based standpoint, this is definitely a sound wager, note that Detroit is 15-10 ATS in its last 25 as a road dog in the 6.5 to 9 points range, while Washington is just 6-7 ATS in its last 13 when playing with three or more days of rest. Grab as many points as you can with the PISTONS.

AAA Sports 

This is a 10* play on the LA Clippers.

I think the home side will do just enough here to escape with the SU and subsequent ATS victory. LA would love nothing more than to kick the defending champs while they’re down. The Spurs are just 2-3 and hardly resemble the squad that won the title last year, most recently losing 100-99 to New Orleans on Saturday. San Antonio simply can’t score right now, it ranks in the NBA’s bottom third in scoring, field-goal percentage, 3-point percentage and turnovers per game. Key injuries aren’t helping matters as the team will once again be without the services of Tiago Splitter, Marco Belinelli and Patty Mills. The Clippers are 4-2, but have yet to cover the spread, they beat Portland 106-102 on Saturday, unable to cover on the closing line. This plays gets stronger when taking into account the revenge factor, San Antonio took two of three in last season’s series, including the last two by double digits. Note that the Spurs are just 21-22 ATS the last two seasons following a divisional contest, while the Clippers are 43-32 ATS the last two years vs. teams with losing records. In my opinion, this line should be a little larger, all signs point to LA as the sharp move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the LA Lakers.

If you didn’t know, Charles Barkley has vowed not to eat another meal until the LA Lakers can get a win. Chuck must know something though, we all know how much he enjoys eating. While the oddsmakers have the Lakers as the underdog here, I think they have a very legitimate shot at winning this one outright, ultimately though I will recommend grabbing as many points as you can. A big advantage I think for LA today is the fact that it’s had four whole days off to refocus and prepare for this one. Kobe Bryant had 39 points in a 112-106 home loss to Phoenix on Tuesday: "Just get a damn win," Kobe said yesterday. "You can't listen to what everybody says. You can't listen to people. You've got to be stubborn as a mule. You've got to keep chipping away. Got to keep competing and going after it, and this thing will turn around. Just as easily as we lost five in a row, we can turn around and win five in a row." "It's good to have a few days to home in on a few things, and work on stuff that needs to be done," coach Byron Scott said. "There's a good vibe. Our guys understand that it's the start of the season and not the end." Charlotte is 3-3 and has won two straight, but note that it’s already 0-2 on the road this season, a place that it’s struggled in for a long time. Note that Charlotte is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points, while LA is 6-4 ATS in its last ten as a home dog in the 3.5 to 6 points range. Consider “sprinkling a little” on the money line as well, play on the LAKERS.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* INTERCONTINENTAL EXPRESS on the Detroit Pistons.

The Pistons haven’t covered the spread once this year, in fact in their last two games they would collapse late and really screw backers over. However, I finally feel the conditions are right today and expect the home side to pull away down the stretch. The Pistons though have plenty to be optimistic about, they’ve won two straight and today’s contest represents the finale of a four-game home set, added motivation to finish strong before hitting the road. One player you’ll want to keep your eyes on today is Kentavious Caldwell-Pope who is shooting the lights out, 60 percent while also nailing 7 of 12 from behind the arc in the back-to-back victories. A date vs. the defensively challenged Jazz is just what the doctor ordered to keep the the momentum rolling, Utah is allowing opponents to hit 48.2 percent from the field which easily ranks among the worst in the NBA. And unlike the surging Pistons, the Jazz come in off their worst game yet, committing 23 turnovers in a 105-82 home loss to the Mavericks, also shooting a season-worst 42.6 percent. In all Utah is averaging 16.5 turnovers per game. Note, this is also a “look ahead” spot for the Jazz who have a game in Indiana tomorrow night. In my opinion, this line should be higher, play on DETROIT.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the LA Clippers.

The Clippers have not covered the spread once yet this season, but I think will finally pull away down the stretch in this one for the comfortable ATS cover. And certainly LA will be ultra motivated here after a humbling 121-104 setback to the Warriors last time out: "For me, I need to do a better job," head coach Doc Rivers said afterwards. "I told the guys that. This is not their fault." But the home side needs no more motivation than simply looking at its upcoming competition (Portland, San Antonio, Phoenix and Chicago); suffice it to say, I think it’s all hands on deck this afternoon. Portland is coming off back to back satisfying wins, a 101-82 victory over Cleveland and then a 108-87 victory over Dallas on Thursday. Both teams are loaded with offensive talent and I don’t need to get into individual player matchups, this is a great situational play in my opinion; Portland is already 0-1 SU on the road this year and will get caught “looking ahead” to its game at home vs. Denver tomorrow night. And note, despite the ATS struggles this season, this is in fact a spot that LA has dominated in over the last two years for bettors, a superb 37-24 ATS after allowing 105 points or more. I think LA takes this one personally and pushes the tempo from the outset; all signs point to the CLIPPERS as the sharp move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SCORPION on the Phoenix Suns.

The Kings have reeled off four straight victories, both SU and ATS and suffice it to say, I think finally have a letdown here and look for the home side to take full advantage. Sacramento has been getting the job done with some great defensive play, although it was its offense which proved to be too much for Denver on Wednesday, a 131-109 blowout win. The Suns are coming off a tough 102-91 setback to Memphis on Wednesday, Eric Bledsoe led the charge with 23 points. In the wide open Pacific division, this is an important early contest; note that Sacramento is just 13-19 ATS in its last 32 divisional contests, while Phoenix is 18-15 ATS in its last 33 vs. divisional opponents and 11-8 ATS in its last 19 off an upset loss as a favorite. Look for the Kings to finally take a step back today and for the SUNS to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover.

AAA Sports 

This is an 8* ART OF THE GAME on the Detroit Pistons.

The Pistons play with revenge here and catch a deflated Knicks team which is coming off a loss just last night; when the smoke does finally clear at the end of this one, I look for the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. The home side will certainly be the more motivated team, it hasn’t won a single game so far this year and I think that new coach Stan Van Gundy will have his troops ready to play. A bright spot for the home side has been the play of big man Greg Monroe, who had 18 points off the bench in his season debut, a 102-90 setback to Brooklyn on Saturday. The Knicks can empahtize with the struggling Pistons offense, they’ve averaged just 88.5 PPG as they try to get accustomed to the new triangle offense. After back to back victories over Cleveland and Charlotte, New York came out flat in last nights 98-83 setback to Washington. As a situational handicapper, these are the types of games that I keep my eyes open for, desperation breeds motivation and all signs point to the PISTONS as the savvy move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Brooklyn Nets.

If you’ve followed me for any length of time you know that I’m a situational handicapper which tries to exploit lop-sided numbers and trends. Minnesota is already 3-0 ATS this year, but I think will stumble here vs. what I feel is a severly undervalued Nets team in this situation. New head coach Lionel Hollins has New Jersey in position for its best four-game start since 2007. Big man Brook Lopez returned to pour in 18 points in the Nets last victory: "I can't put it in words," said Lopez afterwards. "It was great to be back out there. I've missed it for a long time." Note that the Nets rank near the top of the NBA with almost 108 points per contest on nearly 50 percent shooting. I’ll give props to the Wolves so far, the young team has played well, but they’re coming off a deflating 106-105 defeat at Chicago last time out. I think this sets up as classic letdown spot for the visitors and look for the surging NETS to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* ART OF THE GAME on the Detroit Pistons.

The Pistons play with revenge here and catch a deflated Knicks team which is coming off a loss just last night; when the smoke does finally clear at the end of this one, I look for the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. The home side will certainly be the more motivated team, it hasn’t won a single game so far this year and I think that new coach Stan Van Gundy will have his troops ready to play. A bright spot for the home side has been the play of big man Greg Monroe, who had 18 points off the bench in his season debut, a 102-90 setback to Brooklyn on Saturday. The Knicks can empahtize with the struggling Pistons offense, they’ve averaged just 88.5 PPG as they try to get accustomed to the new triangle offense. After back to back victories over Cleveland and Charlotte, New York came out flat in last nights 98-83 setback to Washington. As a situational handicapper, these are the types of games that I keep my eyes open for, desperation breeds motivation and all signs point to the PISTONS as the savvy move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* WEST-COAST EXPRESS on the LA Lakers.

The winless Lakers are severly undervalued in this position in my opinion and while the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. The Lakers are off to their worst start since moving to the West Coast: "Just stay the course," said Kobe Bryant, who shot 12 of 28 and had 28 points in a 127-104 loss at Golden State on Saturday. "We still have a lot of room for improvement, but we're moving in the right direction." Both newcomers Jeremy Lin and Carlos Boozer have struggled, but desperation breeds motivation and after losing in Phoenix just last week, I think the Lakers play their best game to date. The Suns are coming off a poor 118-91 loss to Utah on Saturday. Note that Bryant was on top of his offensive game vs. the Suns, going 11 of 25 from the floor for 31 overall points. I simply don’t feel that the LAKERS are as bad as they’ve shown and like them to keep this one at least close enough to sneak in through the back door with what I believe to be a healthy amount of points.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the LA Clippers.

The Clippers are 2-1 but 0-3 ATS; suffice it to say I think the home side comes out focused and fired up after yesterday’s listless 98-92 setback to visiting Sacramento. The Clippers finished with a season-low 37.5 percent shooting and were just 9 of 31 from 3-point range: “Luckily, we've got 79 chances to get better. In the locker room after the game, I said, 'It finally caught up to us,'" Clippers point guard Chris Paul said half jokingly last night. "We've been in here the past other two games and made it ugly but still won. Tonight it caught up to us." A date vs. the 1-2 Jazz is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked, LA has shot nearly 50 percent in winning the last nine straight in the series. I also think this sets up as a classic “letdown” spot for the Jazz after their one sided beatdown 118-91 win over Phoenix on Saturday. Note that Utah had given up a combined 224 points in its first two games and has allowed an average of 104.8 in the last nine with Los Angeles. I look for a highly motivated and focused CLIPPERS team to take its frustrations out on the lowly Jazz.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Portland Trailblazers.

“Revenge” is a powerful motivating factor. Throw in the “opening night” in front of the home town crowd angle and that fact that the leagues leading scorer is sitting this one out with injury for the visiting side and all signs point to an epic one-sided rout in my opinion. The Thunder will have to make some major adjustments to start the year, but the Blazers are fully healthy and ready to go. OKC’s Russell Westbrook certainly has the talent to carry the load, but the Thunder will now become much more one dimensional. With teams being able to double team Westbrook without fear of getting burned by KD, I think he’s going to have some trouble, and especially tonight. KD isn’t the only injured Thunder player though, note that Reggie Jackson is out with an ankle injury, so to is guard Jeremy Lamb; Anthony Morrow, Mitch McGary and Perry Jones are also all out as well. This OKC team is ripe for the picking, LaMarcus Aldridge, Damien Lillard, Nicolas Batum, Wesley Matthews and Robin Lopez are 100% for the Blazers. Note that Portland also added big man Chris Kaman and veteran guard Steve Blake to bolster a bench which was the leauge’s lowest-scoring last year. In my opinion, this line should be a lot higher, play on PORTLAND.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the Orlando Magic.

I jumped on this line early and got only +9, most of you would have gotten +10 (or better). Regardless, I think Orlando is the savvy wager here as the majority of the public jumps on the “sexy” Pelicans. New Orleans has a great player in Anthony Davis, he’s coming off a great sophomore campaign in which he averaged 20.8 points, 10 boards and 2.8 blocks. Davis is expected to once again dominate, but in my opinion, his supporting cast is weak. I’m not reading too much into the Omer Asik or John Salmons signings. Those three are joined by Ryan Anderson and Jrue Holiday who are finally fully healthy. Despite Davis dominating the Magic last year, note that Orlando managed to split the season series. Orlando will once again be one of the East’s worst, but I think can surprise the Pelicans here and keep this one closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The Magic drafted Aaron Gordon, the fourth overall pick this summer; he’s joined by Ben Gordon, Luke Ridnour and Willie Green; the biggest free agent signing was Channing Frye, who won’t be playing tonight due to injury. I simply don’t see a blowout happening on opening night and while I won’t go so far as to call for an outright upset, do definitely feel that this is too many points to be giving up here; play on ORLANDO.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the San Antonio Spurs.

AAA Sports Has: +4.5

Worst Case Scenario Line: +4.5

While I feel the outright win isn’t out of the question, I’ll ultimately recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect this one to once again be decided in the waning moments. With the air-conditioning working, the Heat looked a lot better in Game 2, and really the SU win could have gone either way. I expect another extremely competitive affair tonight. "They came out great. They played a great game," San Antonio guard Tony Parker said after the Heat’s 98-96 win in Game 2 "Now it's our turn to go over there and get one. We played pretty well all season long on the road and so we're going to have two great opportunities to try to come up with a win." Miami has been almost impossible to beat at home in the postseason the last few years, it’s won 11 straight, the last team to win their in the Playoffs are the Spurs in Game 1 of last season’s Finals: “We are in a tough situation because we've got to go to Miami and we've got to get one," Spurs guard Manu Ginobili said. "We don't want to come back here 3-1 down. It's very hard to overcome that. Definitely going to be a great challenge for the team to play in an arena like that and having to win." If there is one thing that San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich has proved this post-season is that he’s been extremely adept at making necessary adjustments after a loss, specifically against the Mavericks and Thunder. Another all out war produces another nail-biter; grab the points.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the Miami Heat.

AAA Sports Has: +3.5

Worst Case Scenario Line: +4.5

As you can see, I jumped on an early line, most of you should be able to get 4 or better. Regardless, I think Miami has a real shot at stealing Game 1 outright, but will in the end recommend grabbing the points. Just like last year, I think this will be another incredibly close series: "I think it's great that these two franchises have this opportunity in back-to-back years to compete for a championship," Heat guard Dwayne Wade said Wednesday. "Last year was an unbelievable series and ... it went down to the very end. We won the series by a total of five points, you know? That's how close it was. But it was a very even series. I think this year it could be another great series." Both teams are healthier than they were a year ago, but I think a big difference maker in Game 1 is going to be the play of Wade, who will have a distinct advantage over the Spurs’ Tony Parker, who sprained his ankle in the series win over the Thunder. Wade was used sparingly throughout the regular season and has looked great in the Playoffs. San Antonio has looked very vulnerable at times during the postseason, and for the most part the Heat have quietly gone about their business this year and looked much better; I think that dominance gets carried over here. Grab as many points as you can.

AAA Sports

his is an 8* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the San Antonio Spurs.

AAA Sports Has: +4

Worst Case Scenario Line: +4

If the San Antonio Spurs want to win the NBA title this year, they’re going to have to win some tough ones on the road and with a chance to punch their ticket to the Finals and get their long awaited re-match with the Miami Heat, I look for them to do just enough today to at the very least sneak in through the back door with the handful of points they’ve been afforded in Game 6. While there have been some dramatic blowouts so far in this series, I think Game 6 sets up as a nail-biter. In retrospect, it’s quite obvious that the Spurs were taken off guard by the return of Serge Ibaka, it took a couple of games to adjust but San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich finally solved the puzzle and I’m looking for a repeat performance here. Popovich was able to get the spacing he needed by putting out perimeter-shooting post players alongside veteran Tim Duncan, which in turn forces Ibaka off the block, allowing San Antonio’s perimeter players to get to the hoop. So while home court advantage has played a big part so far in this series, I think that trend ends tonight, that the Spurs have figured out how to play Ibaka and while I do think the outright win is definitely not out of the question, I will ultimately recommend grabbing as many points as you can.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the Indiana Pacers.

AAA Sports Has: +7

Worst Case Scenario Line: +7

I jumped on this one early, and the line would drop to 6, however, bettors were quick to jump back on the two-time defending champions and most of you should be able to get 8. Regardless, I feel that Indiana has a legitimate shot at winning this one outright. The Pacers took the Heat’s best punch and survived Game 5. The Pacers have won in Miami each of the last two seasons in the Playoffs, but have yet to do so this year; I like the hungry visiting side to at the very least keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door with what I believe is a very healthy amount of points. Miami has won ten straight at home and has not lost back to back games in the playoffs since 2012, so while it won’t be an easy task, I believe this is a great opportunity for Indiana to catch the Heat a bit distracted, the team clearly still rattled by what it thought was some pretty questionable calls in Game 5. The Pacers’ Paul George continues to shine, he had 27 points, while Miami All Star LeBron James was held to just seven. Miami looked horrible, sloppy, and it wasted a golden opportunity to put a dangerous team away. I expect this to come down to the wire again and will grab as many points as I can. 

AAA Sports

This is a 10* “EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS GAME OF THE YEAR” on the Indiana Pacers.

AAA Sports Has: +6.5

Worst Case Scenario Line: +6

So far I’m a perfect 3-0 in this series. I had the Pacers in Game 1, the “under” in Game 2 and the Heat in Game 3. With its back against the wall, I look for Indiana to at the very least keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door with what I believe to be a healthy amount of points that it’s been afforded. Remember, the Pacers took the Heat to 7 games last year and have won in Miami each of the last two postseasons. This is a do or die game for Indiana, a 3-1 deficit would be just too big of a hole to climb out of in my opinion. Momentum, motivational and situational factors and many other things have to be taken into account from game to game in the postseason. During the regular season, I primarily base my selections more on numbers and lopsided trends and statistics, but in the Playoffs, it’s a much more fluid process for myself. Indiana jumped out to a huge lead in Game 3, but would slow its attack and ultimately flail horribly down the stretch; I do firmly believe it’ll be much sharper today (note that Indiana had 19 turnovers which led to 26 Heat points): “The little brother (his team the Pacers) spends his whole life getting beat up by the big brother, getting beaten in sports, sporting events, 1-on-1 basketball and what-not," Indiana coach Frank Vogel assessed yesterday. "All those years of getting beat up builds him up to the point where he ultimately takes on the big brother." Note that the Pacers have actually led for 99 of the 144 minutes played so far in this series which equates to about 69 percent of the time. Miami could easily be in a 3-0 hole at this point but has used some epic rallying to save itself in each of its two victories. I expect another nail-biter and am grabbing as many points as I can.

AAA Sports

: This is an 8* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the Oklahoma City Thunder.

AAA Sports Has: -2

Worst Case Scenario Line: -2.5

It’s do or die for the Thunder, a 3-0 hole will simply be too much for it to overcome and as such, I look for the home side to throw everything it has at the surging Spurs and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Serge Ibaka could be back in the line-up for the Thunder, but with or without him I love the home side to avenge the two losses. Ibaka is missed of course, but Kevin Durant is the MVP of the league and Russell Westbrook is enjoying a fantastic playoffs. The Spurs were just better in Games 1 and 2 and used home court advantage…well, to their advantage. Suffice it to say, I expect OKC to do the same here. Let’s not forget, the Thunder fell behind the Spurs 2-0 in the Western Conference Finals before then winning the series 4-2. No need to overanalyze this one, I expect the home side to ride the wave of emotion and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on OKC.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the Miami Heat.

AAA Sports Has: -7

Worst Case Scenario Line: -7

After getting blown out in Game 1, the Heat fought hard in Game 2 and in the final few minutes would pull away for the comfortable ATS cover. LeBron James and company “found their groove” and I look for that momentum at the end to be carried over here as I expect the home side to jump out to an early lead to and to never look back. Tied 1-1 and going back home for Game 3, I believe the pressure is on the Heat tonight. Note that Miami big man Greg Oden has been cleared to play: "If coach needs me, I'm ready to play," Oden said yesterday. "I'm definitely ready whenever he needs me." Miami is fully aware that the Pacers have won five straight away from friendly confines: “I don't know if the home court really matters right now in the playoffs," Heat coach Eric Spoelstra assessed last night. "It's more about your collective disposition, and you're imposing that identity on the other team. I think either team could win home or away." Note that the Heat are 5-0 at home in the playoffs this year, winning by an average of 10 points per game and shooting almost 50 percent from the field collectively: “Both teams can win on each other's floor. We've proven that the last couple years," James said. "We have to protect our home, but we can't go out there saying that just because we're back home we get automatic wins. We've got to play." I couldn’t agree more; play on the Heat.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the Oklahoma City Thunder.

AAA Sports Has: +6

Worst Case Scenario Line: +6

Despite being down big man Serge Ibaka, I think that the desperation level in which the visitors will be playing with today will turn out to be the difference in the end. I played the “over” in Game 1, my reasoning was that I believed the Spurs would relentlessly attack the rim with Ibaka sidelined. OKC would then be forced to play catch-up throughout. That’s exactly what happened. But this is (in my opinion), do or die for Oklahoma City. The loss of Ibaka is big, but it’s not so big that league MVP Kevin Durant and All Star Russell Westbrook can’t overcome his absence in my opinion. I think Westbrook and Durant will get some support from the role players today, I simply can’t see Kendrik Perkins, Thabo Sefolosha and Nick Collison combining to score just five points again. Impossible. With Durant and Westbrook turning up the pressure even more tonight, and the supporting cast contributing, I definitely expect OKC to sneak in through the back door with the healthy amount of points it’s been afforded here. We can expect some line-up changes from Thunder coach Scott Brooks as well; Brooks elected to go with a smaller line-up in Game 1, but will have to move in the big unit for Game 2. While it may be hard to believe, I think the Spurs come in a bit complacent here, it’s been pretty easy up to this point for them, but I think they’re in for a surprise tonight. Look for a much better defensive effort from Oklahoma City and grab as many points as you can.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the Indiana Pacers.

AAA Sports Has: +2.5

Worst Case Scenario Line: +2.5

So here we go, it’s the Eastern Conference Heavyweight bout that we’ve all been waiting for. These two teams are of course extremely familiar with each other, in the 2012 postseason Indiana led 2-1 before the Heat would then rebound to win three straight. Last season the Pacers would take Miami to a Game 7. In my opinion, the double revenge factor plays big into Game 1, I expect the home side to throw everything it has at Miami as it looks to defend home court. And home court is big, the Pacers were unstoppable in the first half of the season, and while it stumbled at times over the second stanza, that effort has now paid off big time as they control their own destiny: “I think we like being the underdogs," Indiana’s Lance Stephenson said yesterday. "We like when everybody is talking about us. I think it makes our game a little bit better. It makes us want to go out and play harder, so I like being the underdog and everybody talking about us and trying to bring us down but we stay together as a unit, stay poised in the locker room. It just makes us stronger." Bad news for the Heat, Pacers big man Roy Hibbert finally got untracked in the Washington series; Hibbert menaced Miami last year and he’ll play a pivotal role in the outcome of both this game and the series. Miami may be thinking about going small and trying to stretch the Pacers defense, but after surving two straight series of that game-plan, I think Indiana is ready for whatever the two time defending champs throw at them. So while the Heat have played good enough defense to beat the Pacers in the playoffs the last two years, I think the home side has finally matured and will be ready to take the next step. At least in Game 1 that is! Grab as many points as you can.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the LA Clippers.

AAA Sports Has: -4.5

Worst Case Scenario Line: -5

I believe we’re going to a Game 7 and expect the Clippers to put forth their best overall effort of this series. I took the Clippers in Game 1, the “under” in Game 2, the Thunder in Game 3 and then the “under” in both Game’s 4 and 5. LA actually had Game 5 in the bag before an unreal set of blunders committed by the usually sound Chris Paul; LA would blow a 13-point lead with just over four minutes to play. So does Paul dwell on the major “brain-fart”, or does the blunder galvanize him to lead his team to redemption in Game 6? I believe the latter. Paul’s teammates quickly came to his defense and will be unbelievably charged today to help their brother get some vindication tonight. Did you watch Game 5? Do you think Paul fouled the Thunder’s Russell Westbrook on that final 3-point shot? Pretty damn ticky-tacky in my opinion. Remember, OKC just blew a 16-point lead with nine minutes left in Game 4 at the Staples Center. These teams are now even. Ultimately though I believe the difference will be two factors: I believe the team rallies around Paul and that determination combined with home floor advantage leads to a comfortable cover for the Clippers. Lay the short points.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* “EASTERN-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH” on the Brooklyn Nets.

AAA Sports Has: +2.5

Worst Case Scenario Line: +2.5

I took the Heat in Game 1 and won. I took the Nets in Game 2 and lost. I then took Brooklyn in Game 3 and won. After going 6-1 with the Nets in their first round match-up with the Raptors, I am now 2-1 with them in their second-round match-up with Miami. So here we are with Game 4; when the smoke clears at the end of this one, I expect Brooklyn to once again keep it close enough to at the very least escape with the ATS cover. In reality, the Nets very well could have easily won Game 2 as well, they were within 2-points of the Heat late in the fourth quarter, but the team collectively had its worst shooting performance all year. I like the home side to build of its last effort, and think it will look even sharper this time around; note that Brooklyn hit 15 of 25 from behind the arc and outrebounded Miami 43-27 in Game 3. The Nets have done a superb job in slowing down LeBron James, who is now averaging just over 20 PPG in this series after scoring just 20 in Game 3: “We just had a little success against them during the regular season. We played them well and we feel like we match up well with them," Nets star guard Deron Williams assessed afterwards. "And if we're on top of our game, we're playing defense the way we're capable of playing, like we did the last game, we put ourselves in a good position to win." Miami has been excellent in bouncing back after a loss in the Playoffs during its back-to-back titles, but I think that trend gets bucked tonight; the Nets are loaded with experience as well and I like them to get the job done in front of the home town crowd. Grab the points.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the Brooklyn Nets.

AAA Sports Has: +2.5

Worst Case Scenario Line: +1.5

It’s do or die time for the Brooklyn Nets. Time to put up or shut up. The four regular season victories over Miami will be flushed down the proverbial crapper with another lacklustre effort. I played the Nets in Game 2 and they looked fantastic for 3.5 quarters, and then would implode down the stretch, we’d miss the cover by a bucket. I believe this is finally the spot that the Heat have a let down in the Playoffs, Brooklyn isn’t going to get swept and this is a prime situation to back this highly motivated home side. There’s no way that Nets’ star point-guard Deron Williams is going to go 0 for 9 again; the same can be said for the veteran Kevin Garnett who finished just 2 of 8: “We have a lot of confidence in ourselves," Garnett said. "We just have to go home and defend our home court." Brooklyn has done a very good job in defending LeBron James, he’s averaging just 22 points; all the Nets had to do was to hit a few open shots and there’s no question in my mind that they could have taken Game 2, coming home to Brooklyn all tied up. Despite all of the shooting woes Brooklyn endured, it was within just two points midway through the fourth quarter; with just a tiny bit of improvement, the Nets can win this one outright: “We need a win. It's a must-win," Williams commented. "We can't afford to go down 3-0. We need to get these at home starting with the one on Saturday." I think the writing is on the wall; the Nets’ finally play a full four quarters and at the very least, keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door once the final horn sounds.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the Oklahoma City Thunder.

AAA Sports Has: +3

Worst Case Scenario Line: +4

If you’re like me, you are waiting patiently for the daily lines to come out. I often jump on lines right away, and some times this works beneficially and other times it doesn’t. In this case, I thought the line would move the other way, but it has not as the public was quick to jump on the home side. Regardless, I still like this selection at +3 and look for the Thunder to build off their big Game 2 win. OKC’s Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook were unstoppable and the supporting cast stepped up in the dominant Game 2 win which wasn’t as close as what the final score indicated. Durant had 32 points, 12 boards and nine assists, while Westbrook exploded for 31 points, 10 boards and 10 assists. Note that it was the second straight game that Oklahoma City outrebounded the Clippers: "We have to take that and then add to that," OKC coach Scott Brooks assessed afterwards. "You can't be satisfied. The intensity as the series goes along improves and it becomes greater, and we have to make the next jump." The Thunder were excellent defensively as well and I expect that momentum to be carried over here, holding Sixth Man of the Year Jamal Crawford to just seven points on 2 of 13 shooting. With the Clippers keying on Durant and Westbrook, look for the Thunders’ big men to assert themselves tonight. I think Oklahoma City exposed a major weakness of the Clippers in Game 2 and look for it to employ an identical game-plan tonight. Grab the points.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “BLOCKBUSTER” on Brooklyn.

AAA Sports Has: +8

Worst Case Scenario Line: +7.5

I was 6-1 in Brooklyn’s opening round and am 1-0 in its second round series with Miami after taking the Heat in Game 1. I believe the Nets come to play today and expect them to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The Heat were fresh and they caught the Nets tired, off of a brutal 7 game series vs. Toronto; I definitely feel that Brooklyn will make the necessary adjustments to keep Game 2 much more competitive. The Nets have been pretty damn good in this position all year, going 12-4 SU in games immediately following a 15 points or more setback: “We've been tested, beginning of the season, middle of the season, late in the season and in the first round," Nets’ coach Jason Kidd assessed yesterday. "It's nothing new to us. Hopefully we can draw from that experience and help us find a way to win Game 2." Despite the 21 point loss, Brooklyn can find a few silver linings in the performance as it kept the Heats’ Dwayne Wade and LeBron James away from the foul line, the two combining to shoot just two the entire night, as well as finishing with just 13 total turnovers. So while Wade and James were held in check, the Nets would allow the supporting cast to pad their stats, something they know they can’t let happen again if they expect to win this series: "That hurt," Brooklyn’ guard Joe Johnson said about Miami’s bench production. "Defensively, that's not us, man. We can't let the other guys around LeBron and Wade have 15, 17 points. To beat this team, you can't allow that." It wasn’t Brooklyn’s backcourt that struggled either, which is a good thing in my opinion; Johnson and Deron Williams would combine to go 14 of 21 and the Nets will need these two to keep the pressure up. Bottom line is, this is a do-or-die game for the visitors as they’ll be fully aware that James and Wade have never lost a series after being up 2-0. I won’t call for the outright upset but I do expect a much closer Game 2; grab the points.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the Miami Heat.

AAA Sports Has: -7

Worst Case Scenario Line: -7

Brooklyn managed to gut out a seven game series over the Raptors in its Opening round, while the Heat have been off after sweeping the Bobcats in four. Brooklyn took all four games off Miami this year, winning three by a single point and the other in double over time. Suffice it to say, unlike what Indiana did yesterday, I look for the higher seeded two-time defending champions to take advantage of the older and extremely tired Nets, to send a clear message in this opening game and to avenge the earlier setbacks at the same time: “They figured out a way to beat us four times and that hasn't happened," said Heat star Dwayne Wade yesterday. "So we've got to crack that code." For me this selection is simple, it’s situationally based; Brooklyn barely got by Toronto and now hits the road to play arguably the best team on the planet that’s rested and ready to do some damage. I’m expecting Miami to jump out to an early lead and to never look back; play on the Heat.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the LA Clippers.

AAA Sports Has: +5.5

Worst Case Scenario Line: +5.5

Both teams are coming off tough seven game opening round battles; I believe tonight’s contest will be a war as well and will therefore grab as many points as I can. Both teams are going to look to get out and push the pace of this game; LA led the league in scoring during the regular season with 107.9 PPG, Oklahoma City ranked fifth at 106.2 per game. However, LA now has a blueprint to beat the Thunder as OKC is very similar to Golden State in many respects; I think the Thunder will have their hands full though as they had to play 7 games vs. an opponent that has an entirely different style than LA. The Clippers will look to take advantage of a shaky Kevin Durant who struggled throughout most of his opening round series. I think a big difference maker will be Blake Griffin though, he’s finally fully matured and is now a veteran. OKC big man Serge Ibaka is going to have his hands full with Griffin, who is now equally adept at firing away from the inside as he is at taking it to the rack. I look for the visitors to rally and to give the home side everything it can handle; while I do think the outright win is very possible, I will in the end recommend grabbing the points.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* “2ND RND GAME OF THE YEAR” on the Indiana Pacers.

AAA Sports Has: -4.5

Worst Case Scenario Line: -4.5

I played on Indiana in Games 6 and 7 in its opening round series vs. the Hawks. No doubt about it, that was a super interesting 7 games. Atlanta took the No. 1 seed to the brink, but the Pacers would “find” themselves in those two final games and I look for that confidence and momentum to get carried over into this contest. Washington is a very similar team to Atlanta and Indiana now has a blueprint in which to attack it: “I think (Atlanta) helped us in terms of understanding how to be in gaps, being there for one another, rotating, so we're ready for the next round," the Pacers’ Paul George said yesterday. Washington though also looks to establish its big men, its pivotal in its game plan to keep defenders honest and it opens up stuff from the outside for it sharp-shooters. However, Marcin Gortat and Nene will have their hands full on both ends of the court with the bigger and more athletic David West and Roy Hibbert. Indiana will also comes in sharp to this first contest, while the Wizards have had a full five days off; I think the visitors will be a little flat-footed and rusty to start. And finally, Washington has simply struggled in Indiana for years now, it’s lost 12 straight there including both times this year. I look for Indiana to send an early message with a convincing effort; play on Indiana.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* “SUPER BLOCKBUSTER” on the Brooklyn Nets.

AAA Sports Has: +3

Worst Case Scenario Line: +3

It’s all come down to this. I took the “under” in Game 1, the Raptors in Games 2, 3 and 4, the Nets in Game 5 and then finally lost in this series by taking the Raptors in Game 6. I’ve won with both teams so far in this series, but think that Toronto wasted a huge opportunity in putting way this dangerous Nets squad. Brooklyn was finally able to dictate the pace and flow of the game on both ends of the court and I expect this veteran laden club to at the very least keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door with the handful of points it’s been afforded. Brooklyn came up just short in Game 5, erasing a 26-point deficit to score 44 points in the final frame, and that momentum was clearly carried over into Game 6: I think our momentum will carry over," the Nets’ Andray Blatche said yesterday. "I think we found the recipe." Let’s not forget, Brooklyn beat the Raptors in Toronto in Game 1. Toronto is stumbling, it barely held on for the win in Game 5 and was dominated thoroughly in all facets in Game 6. I believe the savvy experience the Nets bring to this contest can not be overlooked; the Raptors’ entire roster has played in a combined seven Game 7’s, which is one less than Brooklyn’s Paul Pierce alone. Here’s an interesting tid-bit which the oddsmakers were likely unaware of when setting this line; Toronto is just 3-7 SU this year in games which start before 6 PM EST. I believe the pressure is on Toronto, it was the higher seed which had a golden shot at putting away Brooklyn in Game 6, but stumbled horribly. Look for Brooklyn to employ an identical game-plan as what it used in Game 6 and grab those points.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the Indiana Pacers.

AAA Sports Has: -5.5

Worst Case Scenario Line: 

I played on the Pacers in Game 6 and I look for the oft-criticized No. 1 seed to once again find a way to get the job done at the end of the night in this one. Indiana All-Star Paul George has averaged more than 20 points in all six games and has double-doubles in five of them. George has also been the teams best defender, he’s done a much better job of slowing down Atlanta’s prolific scoring guard Jeff Teague. "My thing is that three of the last four times we've played these guys (in Indy), they built 20-point leads and beat us pretty good," Pacers coach Frank Vogel said yesterday. "So I don't think anyone from this team can think we're going to be OK just because we're back home." Atlanta has to be feeling pretty shaky coming off the Game 5 setback, it battled back from that nine-point deficit, even took a five-point lead late in the fourth quarter yet it still lost both SU and ATS. Vogel finally found a defensive match-up that was effective in slowing down the Hawks spread offense, a smaller line-up was the key. With what will be a wild crowd backing them, I like the home side to play its most complete game of this series and wrap it up with a resounding effort. Lay the points.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the Toronto Raptors.

AAA Sports Has: +5.5

Worst Case Scenario line: 5

This has been a roller-coaster series, of my five-straight victories, none have been easy, all have been close and each has come down to the wire. In Game 1 I had the “under”, in Games 2, 3 and 4 I took the Raptors, I then took the Nets in Game 5, and their improbable fourth-quarter comeback would produce winner No. 5. In Game 6, while I do think the visitors have a legitimate shot at winning outright, I will in the end grab as many points as I can. "We have no doubt. We're very confident," Toronto guard Greivis Vasquez said yesterday. "We're not going to underestimate them, but we're going to go there with the mentality that we're going to fight and we're going to do whatever it takes to get this win. We're very humble, but at the same time we're very hungry. We need to leave it all on the court. We've got to win Friday. It's not going to be easy but that's what we're looking for." Brooklyn rookie coach Jason Kidd has his hands full now with a couple of disgruntled players in Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce. Pierce had just 10 points in Wednesday’s setback and his team would get outscored by a whopping 31 points while he was on the floor. The younger Raptors have the elder statesman just where they want them, they will be pushing the pace of this contest from the outset, a major advantage for sure. In another highly competitive contest, I’m grabbing the points.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the Memphis Grizzlies.

AAA Sports Has: +2.5

Worst Case Scenario Line: +2.5

With a chance to dispatch Kevin Durant and the Oklahoma City Thunder on their home floor, I look for the Memphis Grizzlies to keep this one close enough to at the very least sneak away with the ATS cover. Memphis gutted out a 100-99 OT win in Game 5 Tuesday night in OKC. The Grizzlies can become only the second No. 7 to take down a No. 2 in a best of seven series. "Still a race to four," Memphis’ Mike Miller said yesterday. "We like where we are, but we have a lot of stuff we have to accomplish yet." Four games so far have gone to overtime in this series and Memphis has blown big leads in each contest that has seen the extra frame: “I’m getting tired of it," Grizzlies’ guard Tony Allen remarked. "Hopefully, we do the things we need to do to try to avoid that, and that's taking care of the ball down the stretch." Durant and Russell Westbrook have been simply shut down in this series, and I don’t see that changing tonight; Memphis has held the Thunder to below 40 percent shooting in four straight games. Memphis is the deeper team and I look for its hard-nosed defensive play to once again be the difference tonight; while the outright win isn’t out of the question, as mentioned above, I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the Indiana Pacers.

AAA Sports Has: -1

Worst Case Scenario Line: -1

With its back against the wall, I look for the beleagured No. 1 seed to play its most complete game of this series and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Atlanta has looked good. I wouldn’t go so far as to say great though. Indiana’s issues stem all the way back to when it traded Danny Granger, which is strange, because the sharp-shooter hardly played this year (or last), and the player that the Pacers picked up in Evan Turner is arguably as good, or better. But since that move, the Pacers have not been the “same” club. That said, I still believe they’re the better team; it’s better coached, it’s deeper and has more talented players. The Pacers won a pivotal Game 4 in Atlanta, holding the Hawks without a field goals over the final 4.5 minutes, Indiana will be playing with the extra confidence in that fact. All of my playoff selections are situationaly based picks, and that’s the case here. I think we’re getting great value on this line, Indiana has looked shaky but in this pressure packed situation, I like the No. 1 seed to rally on the road and to push this to a decisive Game 7; lay the short point/s.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the Brooklyn Nets.

These two teams battled tooth and nail in the regular season and so far it’s been an all out war in the playoffs. Toronto came out on top 87-79 in Game 4 on Sunday. I had the “under” in Game 1 and have taken the Raptors in Games 2, 3 and 4. Toronto covered the spread by a single bucket in Games 2 and 3, before pulling off the outright upset in Game 4. With their backs against the wall, I look for the venerable visitors to keep this one competitive down the stretch and to come away with at least the ATS cover at the end. The Raptors and the media can talk all they want about being the underdog, but the Nets will be playing with the extra motivation of being the dog tonight. It’s safe to say that we’re going to see a heavy dose of the Nets’ Deron Williams who scored 22 and 25 points in Brooklyn’s two victories. We can also expect the Nets to press early; Brooklyn ranked fourth in the league with 8.6 steals per game is No. 2 so far in the playoffs with 9 per contest. And that’s bad news for the Raptors who had a whopping 59 turnovers through the first three games. The scheduling has also greatly favored the older Nets in this series, this is now the third time that they’ve had two whole days off between games. After taking all of the above factors into consideration, I’m grabbing as many points as I can.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the Memphis Grizzlies.

AAA Sports Has: +6.5

Worst Case Scenario Line: +6.5

I’m going back and forth in this series, last time out I had the Thunder, this time I like the Grizz to at the very least keep it close enough to sneak in through the back door with what I believe is a pretty healthy spread they’ve been afforded. OKC’s big men Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins did a great job on the Grizzlies Zach Randolph in Game 4, but struggled previous to that. I think Randolph returns to form here; note that Randolph averaged 17.4 points in the regular season, but has upped that mark to 18.3 in the playoffs. "We've got to try to get some motion with the ball movement from side to side, so when the ball does come back to him, he gets the ball at a better position closer to the basket," Memphis guard Mike Conley said of making sure Randolph gets some open looks. "I think he's been too far out having to work too hard to get to his spot." For the most part these games have been really close, decided late or in extras. There is nothing more I can add about each team’s strengths and weaknesses which hasn’t literally been said a thousand times at this point by all of the talking heads out there, even the most casual NBA fan is fully aware. I definitely feel that the writing is on the wall and that we’re going to see another war; I’m grabbing as many points as I can. Play on Memphis.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the Toronto Raptors.

AAA Sports Has: +4

Worst Case Scenario Line: +4

New Jersey has played better than I had originally thought it would in this series. I had the “under” in Game 1 and the Raptors in Games 2 and 3, narrowly getting the cover in both. There’s defnitely no reason to think that Game 5 won’t follow suit; I fully expect it to come down to the wire again. Brooklyn won 102-98 last time out, Toronto got into some early foul trouble and was never able to really mount the comeback. In particular Kyle Lowry was roughed up pretty good, he had 15 points and four assists in 38 minutes and then fouled out: "They're paying so much attention to me, sometimes they're playing 4-on-4," Lowry assessed afterwards. "And honestly, it's one of those things where we as a team make an adjustment, but personally I've got to find a way to get the ball and get more aggressive." Keep your eyes on the visitors’ DeMar DeRozan who had his second-straight 30-point game. Also note that Toronto big man Jonas Valanciunas was also in early foul trouble and took just four shots. You could see Brooklyn starting to get tired in that fourth quarter, the Raptors battled back from a 15-point deficit with just 5.5 minutes left; this is a major opportunity for Toronto which can finally take advantage of a tired/old Nets side. As stated off the top, the outright win is obviously not out of the question, but I’ll grab the points in the end just to be safe; play on Toronto.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “ASSASSIN” on the Oklahoma City Thunder.

AAA Sports Has: -2.5

Worst Case Scenario Line: -3

Oklahoma City has looked great for one half of basketball, other than that, Memphis has been the better team. Down 2-1, I finally expect the Thunder to play a full four quarters and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. OKC’s sharp-shooter Kevin Durant struggled in Game 3; in my opinion, I think it’s safe to say that he’s going to respond in a big way tonight: "I just didn't make shots," Durant assessed yesterday. "That's the name of the game. But I liked the way I cut, I liked the way I was aggressive. But I have to do a better job of maybe passing the ball a little bit more and also making shots. I've got to stay confident in myself." Durant still scored 30 in the 98-95 OT setback; Russell Westbrook also had 30; however, they were just a combined 4 of 21 from beyond the arc, KD missed all eight of his shots. The Thunder’s supporting cast will be asked to step up, they were just 5 of 28 for 17.9 percent. I’m anticipating that the Grizzlies are going to get caught off guard today and not be ready for the pace in which OKC is going to play at. Look for the Thunder to have made some major adjustments to finally get their shooters some open looks as the momentum once again shifts in this series; lay the short points.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the Toronto Raptors.

AAA Sports Has: +5

Worst Case Scenario Line: +5

I had the “under” in Game 1 of this series and the Raptors for a close cover in Game 2. I think the shift in venue will benefit the visitors, the home town spotlight is off of the younger club and while the outright win isn’t out of the question, ultimately I’m going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Brooklyn was excellent at home down the stretch, but home court has meant little so far in this playoffs, and for the Nets to assume anything would be a big mistake. Especially because of how well the Raptors performed on the road this year, 22-19 away from friendly confines. Toronto won its first trip to Barclays Center this year and will have to play through the fall out of Toronto’s GM dropping the F-bomb on Brooklyn. I look for Toronto to answer the call here though, as it pushes the pace from the outset and runs the geriatrics off the floor down the stretch. Play on Toronto.

AAA Sports 

This is an 8* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Oklahoma City looked like “OKC” in the first half of Game 1; since then, it’s been the Grizzlies who have dictated the tempo of this series. We shift to Memphis now tied at 1-1 and suffice it to say, I’m expecting the Thunder to bounce back after a tenative effort in Game 2 and look for them to pull away down the stretch for a comfortable ATS cover. Winning on the road is something that the Thunder have done all year, they’re 25-16 away from friendly confines, the league’s second-best road mark during the regular season: “Everybody's going to be there. They're going to have T-shirts. They're going to be swinging towels," OKC star Kevin Durant assessed yesterday. "It's the playoffs. It's going to be hostile, but we've been there before." It’s no big secret what each team will do today; Memphis needs to slow the game down and to work the ball down low to its big men. OKC wants to push the pace every chance it gets. I think the momentu swings once again, the Thunder catch a somewhat complacent Grizzlies team a little flat footed to start and ekes out the SU/ATS win for us. Lay the short points.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* “OPENING ROUND SIDE OF THE YEAR” on the Charlotte Bobcats.

AAA Sports Has: +10.5 -105

Worst Case Scenario Line: +10.5 -130

Charlotte failed to cover the spread by a single bucket in Game 1. I think the Bobcats can duplicate or even better that mark in Game 2 and will therefore grab as many points as I can. Al Jefferson’s availability is in question, but I seriously don’t think it will matter here for the Bobcats, who for the most part played without Jefferson in the first game. The Charlotte big man was injured in the first quarter and then would hobble through the final three-quarters, completely ineffective. Note that the Heat also have a major injury concern, starting point guard Mario Chalmers was held out of practice yesterday with deep shin bruise. We can expect the visitors to get Michael Kidd-Gilchrist involved as much as possible, Charlotte would actually outscore the Heat by eight when he was playing in Game 1; Kidd-Gilchrist will need to be careful though as he was on the floor for a season-low 15 minutes because of early foul trouble. And that greatly effected the Bobcats on both end of the floor, as Kidd-Gilchrist was tasked to primiarly stop LeBron James. History though is definitely on our side, it was just the 14th time this enitre season that Kidd-Gilchrist had at least four fouls in a game. Miami’s Dwayne Wade was highly effective in Game 1, but he’s always a question mark from game to game, which also plays into our hands here; note that Charlotte was 13-4 in its last 17 such situations in the game immediately following a setback, which means that they’re a highly resilient bunch. In my opinion, a great situational play, all signs point to a comfortable cover for the Bobcats. Grab the points.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the Toronto Raptors.

AAA Sports Has: -4.5

Worst Case Scenario Line: -5

Like the LA Clippers and the Indiana Pacers, the higher seeded Raptors find themselves down 0-1 to their lower-seeded opponent. Suffice it to say, I look for the younger, faster and extremely skilled home side to push the pace of this game from the outset and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. A longer lay over should supposedly favor the older Nets, but I’m not buying it. Fatigue at this point, right at the start of the Playoffs will not be a factor for either side, even the venerable visitors. Look for the refs to be more “even keeled” tonight; Brooklyn was whistled for 18 fouls through the first three quarters, but only one in the fourth. One player to keep your eyes on is the home side’s big man Jonas Valanciunas, who scored 17 points and a team playoff record 18 boards; Brooklyn had no answer for him and I expect him to play a pivotal role in Game 2 as well. No need to overanalyze this one I don’t think. This is a “do or die” game for the home side and the sense of urgency it plays with today will turn out to be the difference; play on Toronto.

AAA Sports 

This is an 8* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the Indiana Pacers.

AAA Sports Has: -7

Worst Case Scenario Line: -7.5

I had a bad read on the “under” in the Warriors/Clippers yesterday. LA would bounce back in a big way, it put its foot on the gas from the opening tip and did not let up until the final horn sounded. Indiana finds itself in a similar position, down 0-1 in its Opening series to the Atlanta Hawks. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a similar result here as the underachieving home side jumps out to an early lead and never looks back. For all intents and purposes, this is a “do or die” game for Indiana as it’s won in Atlanta only twice since December 2006. Forget about what you’ve read on the internet about this team being “soft” or not geling; it’s true that the Pacers have struggled over the last month and a half, but this is obviously an elite team which is filled with some of the best players in the league. I think the Hawks spread offense which worked so well in the first game will be under assault from the get go; look for the Pacers to play to their strengths with a dominant defensive effort. I simply can’t see the No. 1 seed going down 0-2 and look for it to respond in a big way today. Lay the points.

AAA Sports.