This is an 8* on WASHINGTON STATE

Washington State had a terrible 2018-19 season. The Cougars won only 11 games and finished second to last in the Pac 12. But we thought it was absurd they were laying such a short number against Seattle in the season opener. We made the Cougs our Game of the Month and sure enough they won 85-54. Tonight Wazzu hits the road and is an underdog to a West Coast Conference opponent. We feel they deserve to be favored over Santa Clara. This is a revenge game. Last year, the Cougars lost to the Broncos 79-71 as eight-point favorites, a game which was played in Spokane, WA (neutral site). Santa Clara couldn't miss in that game, making 58.5% of its shots including 9 of 20 three-pointers. Similarly strong shooting has the Broncos off to a 2-0 start this year with wins over UC Santa Cruz and Cal Poly. But let's see how they do in their first real test. Wazzu was a respectable 7-7 in non-conference games last year and this year's team is going to be much better. Meanwhile, Santa Clara hasn't been very good as a favorite the last couple years, going 7-11 ATS while suffering seven outright losses. Play on WASHINGTON STATE

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This is a 10* on UTAH

For a second time this year, Utah has won three in a row. They are 7-3 overall, which has them right near the top of the Western Conference. Tonight they go for a season-best four-game win streak when they host Brooklyn. We'll be laying the points. This is the second game of a back to back for the Jazz. Last night they went to Golden State and won 122-108. Winning at Golden State doesn't mean what it used to though, so we don't expect any kind of letdown. The Jazz won by 32 the only other time they played without rest this year. Brooklyn lost by 26 in Phoenix Sunday night. That snapped a two-game win streak. But they are still only 4-5 SU and 3-6 ATS. Massive edge for Utah defensively in this one. They lead the league allowing just 98.1 points/game. They've yet to allow more than 108 points. Brooklyn is next to last in points allowed per game at 121.7. They are 3-10 ATS after allowing 130 or more points in their last game (Phoenix scored 138). The Jazz are the only team in the West that has not lost a home game. They are 5-0 in Salt Lake City, winning by an average of 11.2 points. They are simply better than Brooklyn right now. Play on UTAH

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This is a 10* on WILLIAM & MARY

William & Mary and Wofford are each 2-0 to start the year. But we value William & Mary's start a little bit more as both of their wins came on the road. Wofford's two wins have both been at home. We'll take the points. William & Mary's season started with a 70-56 win over High Point. Wofford also has a win over High Point, theirs coming by a 28-point margin (89-61). Again though, W&M had to do it on the road. High Point is a pretty terrible team, but W&M winning as a 3.5-point dog at American University last Frday was a little more impressive. What the Tribe have done exceptionally well to this point is play defense. They've held the first two opponents to 34.9% shooting. That defense will be tested here by a Wofford team that's shooting 51.8% overall and 43.1% from three. But the Terriers are allowing the opposition to shoot well from distance as well. Erskine and High Point combined to make nearly 43% of their three-point attempts. Wofford is just 1-5 ATS its last six opportunities as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points. Let's see what happens when they have to face a "real" team. So far the Terriers have relied on two big second halves. Not sure that can continue. W&M's two big guys should give Wofford trouble. Play on WILLIAM & MARY

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This is a 10* on ALABAMA

Both of these teams are off losses. For Alabama, that's unexpected. The Crimson Tide were 7-point home favorites in an 81-80 loss to Penn in the first game of the season. Just a bad week all around in Tuscaloosa. FAU fell to Miami by 14 on Friday. That was after a shaky defensive effort in the opener where they gave up 81 points to a Division II school. So look for the Crimson Tide to bounce back offensively after a dreadful 35% shooting night against Penn. Bama has had more time to prepare for this game as well. They've been off for five days. Injuries and waiting on the eligibility of a transfer have realy hampered Nate Oats start here. But the 1st year coach should turn things around, just like he did at Buffalo. Only 2 of FAU's 13 players that saw time against Miami finished in double figures. So while Alabama's depth has taken a hit, FAU really doesn't have much depth to speak of. With poor defense and a 34.4% shooting effort against Miami, there's no reason to believe FAU competes here. Play on ALABAMA

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This is a 10* on SAN ANTONIO

Neither the Grizzlies nor the Spurs have been very good teams against the pointspread this year. Both come into Monday sporting 2-7 ATS records. But the difference is San Antonio has at least been winning some (5-4 straight up) while the Grizzlies have a matching 2-7 SU record. San Antonio did just get hit hard by Boston, giving up 135 points in a 20-point home loss. It was the third loss in the last four games for the Spurs, but the first time they'd been blown out all season. Traditionally, they have not been good off that kind of defeat. But they're facing a Memphis team that has been outscored by almost 28 points/game in its three road losses.  The Grizzlies just lost 138-122 to Dallas and that was at home. While it was the most points they've given up in a game this year, it was not the first time getting blown out. It was the 4th loss by 19 or more points so far and second in a row. The previous night in Orlando they lost 118-86. It's a big number to lay with a Spurs team that hasn't covered often. But Memphis might be the worst team in the league right now. Their last three opponents have averaged 125.7 points. They are averaging just 92.7 points/game themselves on the road. Play on SAN ANTONIO

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8* play on VIRGINIA

Two years ago, Virginia suffered the ultimate humiliation by becoming the first ever #1 seed to lose to a #16 seed. They more than redeemed themselves last year by winning the National Championship. This year's team is ranked #11 and opened things up with a 48-34 win over Syracuse. As you can tell from that final score, it was even uglier than usual for the Cavaliers. But the good news is they still won by double digits despite shooting only 16% from the three-point range. They also turned it over 16 times. Last year's team set a school record by making an average of 18 three's per game and they also led the entire country by turning it over just 9.0 times per game. So those numbers from the first game are a lock to improve (even though the 3-pt line has been moved back this year). James Madison is no match for Virginia. The Dukes beat Charlotte 79-74 on Wednesday. But they've never beaten Virginia, an in-state rival, in 10 all-time tries. On the road, the Cavaliers held Syracuse to just 23% shooting and 34 points. Now just imagine what they'll do at home where they've never lost an opener under Coach Bennett (10-0). JMU was without one of its best players (Dwight Wilson) in the opener and he's listed as questionable here. Virginia has covered 67% of the time it has been a favorite the L3 years, going 44-22 ATS. Play on VIRGINIA

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This is a 10* on HOUSTON

Houston started the year 0-6 ATS (while also going 3-3 SU in those games). They've now covered two straight, beating Memphis and Golden State. Tonight they face another weak opponent in Chicago. The Bulls did win their last game, however. They actually won by 20 on the road! But it was the first time Atlanta had to play a back to back this season. The Hawks, by their own admission, seemed ill-prepared for the game. Chicago took full advantage with its largest margin of victory to date. The Rockets figure to be one of the better teams in the Western Conference this year. Some atrocious defense hurt them the first couple weeks of the season, but they just held Memphis and Golden State to an average of 106 points. Chicago's ambitions of making the playoffs this year feel a little foolish on this end. They've been held under 100 points three times already and won't look as good here as they did in Atlanta Wednesday night. Off their first two wins, the Bulls lost by 24 and 13, both times at home. It's a little shocking that the Bulls have been underdogs in only three games so far. They lost all three. We think the market is simply too high on them. Play on HOUSTON

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This is a 10* on PEPPERDINE

It's never personal when we play on or against a team. It's simply a read of the current situation and marketplace. So the fact we went against Pepperdine on Tuesday should not be construed as any kind long-term negative outlook on the Waves. If you got a chance to read our analysis for the Pepperdine-Cal game, you know that we had almost nothing negative to say about Pepperdine. It was simply an opportunity to take a team from a major conference, getting points against a mid-major. Cal won the game 87-71. As disappointing a result as that was for Pepperdine, they should bounce back here against UC Irvine. The Anteaters picked up a road win in their opener, but barely, as they beat San Diego 76-73. They did not cover as they were 5.5 point favorites. UC Irvine attempted only 11 three pointers in that game. They made just two. That kind of shooting isn't going to cut it on a regular basis, especially when playing on the road. Really, the Anteaters were somewhat fortunate to even win Tuesday. They were down 14 at halftime. Pepperdine allowed Cal to shoot 57.4% while making only 37.1% of its own attempts. That kind of disparity won't happen often. Play on PEPPERDINE

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This is a 10* play on WISCONSIN

Wisconsin's season started with a two-point loss to St. Mary's on Tuesday. They'll look to bounce back against a much lesser opponent on Friday, Tony Romo's alma mater of Eastern Illinois. The Badgers did cover the spread on Tuesday as they were four-point underdogs in a game that went to overtime. The game took place in Sioux Falls, SD. The team's top returning scorer D'Metrick Trice finished with just 10 points on 3 of 7 shooting. There was a six minute stretch in the first half where no one on the team made a field goal. Wisconsin was also badly outrebounded. None of that should happen again tonight in Madison. Nor will the Badgers succumb to a 21-3 run by the opposition. Eastern Illinois lost by 25 on Tuesday and allowed Texas Tech to shoot 55%. Opening its season with road games against Texas Tech and Wisconsin all but guaranteed Eastern Illinois would open 0-2. After such a bad performance in the first game, you have to imagine the players have little confidence coming into this game. Wisconsin has covered seven of the last nine times they have been a home favorite of more than 12 points. They should be able to "name their score" here. Play on WISCONSIN

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This is a 10* play on SACRAMENTO

Just as soon as they got Trae Young back from injury, the Hawks lost John Collins to a 25-game suspension. The team looked absolutely putrid in a 20-point home loss to Chicago Wednesday night. So we'll be playing against them tonight. Wednesday was the first time all year Atlanta had to play back to back. Still that's no excuse for losing by 20 at home to the Bulls. Young really struggled, scoring just nine points. The team was 6 of 30 from behind the 3-point arc with Young missing all eight of his tries. Committing a season-high 24 turnovers didn't help either. This is not the first game where Sacramento has been a road favorite. We actually took them -1.5 at New York on Sunday, which was our Game of the Week. They won by 21. While they followed it up with a 4-point loss in Toronto, they covered as eight-point underdogs. So they're 3-0 ATS the L3 games having also beaten Utah, which is a solid win. The Kings are just 5-16 ATS their last 21 visits to Atlanta, but won convincingly here last season (by 31 points). It was their largest margin of victory all year. They are 3-1 SU and ATS the last two seasons versus the Hawks.  Against Toronto, the Kings tied a franchise record with 20 made three-pointers. They are the hotter of these two teams right now. Play on SACRAMENTO

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This is a 10* on WASHINGTON STATE

We know Washington State is off a bad year, but it's rather preposterous to see the Cougs laying such a short number at home to a small school like Seattle. Remember two nights ago we had Cal as a home dog against Pepperdine and the Bears won outright. That Cal play is worth mentioning again because the Bears were the only team to finish below Wazzu in last year's Pac 12 standings. Wazzu draws an even weaker opponent for its season opener as Seattle is a WAC school, perhaps one of the weakest overall conferences in the country. The RedHawks were just 6-10 in conference play last year. Seattle has already played a game. It beat Pacific Lutheran, a non-board team, by 34 points. Getting out to a 31-7 lead was huge. But nothing close to that will be happening tonight. This is a revenge game for Washington State. They lost to the RedHawks last year by nine points. That game was in Seattle though. Wazzu shot very poorly in the game, making less than 30% of its field goal attempts. Despite that loss, the Cougs are still 11-1 ATS their L12 games vs the WAC. Washington State has a new coach, Kyle Smith, who comes over from San Francisco. He led the Dons to 20 wins last season. Lots of new talent was brought in. A new coach is not going to want to lose a game like this. Play on WASHINGTON STATE

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This is a 10* on BOSTON

Charlotte has certainly surprised some people by winning three in a row. They've covered the spread in four straight games. Only one of those games were they they favorite and how ironic is it that it was against Golden State? Tuesday night was a 122-120 overtime win over Indiana. There was a pretty obvious reason the Hornets were able to beat the Pacers. Free throws. While Charlotte went 28 of 42 from the line, Indiana was only 6 of 7. That kind of massive disparity doesn't come around too often. Without it, the Hornets would have lost Tuesday. The disparity certainly won't repeat itself tonight.Boston is humming along with five straight wins. The last one was in Cleveland, 119-113, a game with a similar spread to this one. The Celtics only loss this year came in the opener at Philadelphia. Since then, they've been playing very good defense, holding teams to 42.7% shooting. Tonight is a homecoming of sorts for Kemba Walker. The Hornets all-time leading scorer is now averaging 26 points/game for the Celtics. Jaylen Brown is expected back for Boston after he missed the last three games. It's surprising to see Charlotte winning three in a row. The streak stops here though. The past two seasons saw them go 5-9 SU/ATS when off three or more consecutive wins. Play on BOSTON

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This is a 10* on DALLAS

Orlando's struggles continued last night with a 102-94 loss in Oklahoma City. It was yet another game scoring less than 100 points. In fact, the Magic have yet to score 100 points in any game this year. No wonder they have a 2-5 SU record (1-5-1 ATS). It's unlikely they get the issues solved in the second night of a back to back, so fade them again.We faded the Magic last night too. We talked about the lack of scoring as they are last in the league in points scored and field goal percentage. It looked like they might be able to get to 100 last night, but a 15-point fourth quarter ultimately doomed them. They shot just 39% for the game, including 13% on three-point attempts. Dallas has looked far more impressive so far. They scored 131 in a blowout win at Cleveland Sunday. The time off between games is another obvious advantage the Mavs have coming into this one. Point guard Luka Doncic looks like the real deal. Orlando hasn't won here in "Big D" since 2011. It's seven straight losses by an average of 17.7 points/game. If you can't score 100 points, you won't win many games in this league. That's the sad reality for the Magic right now. Unless the Mavericks have some sort of severe defensive lapse, they should win comfortably against a team playing in the second night of a back to back. Play on DALLAS

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This is 10* on OHIO STATE

Ohio State opens the year ranked #18 in the country. They face a Cincinnati team going through a transition with a new coach and lots of new players. Playing in Columbus, the season opener sets up well for the Buckeyes. These schools didn't play for 98 years, but are now opening the season against one another for the second consecutive season. OSU won last year's game in Cincinnati, 64-56 as a 4.5-point dog. That was a signal that the Buckeyes were "for real" and they'd end up making the NCAA Tournament. Cincinnati has made the Big Dance 10 years in a row. But there could be some early growing pains this season. Mick Cronin left to go coach at UCLA. Five players transferred and two more graduated, leaving new coach John Brannen to almost have to start over from scratch. Yes, he does have three starters back, but we don't think that's enough to match up with the mighty Buckeyes. Ohio State has the Wesson brothers and Kaleb reportedly dropped 30 pounds in the offseason. Having beaten a better Cincinnati team on the road to open last season, it stands to reason the Buckeyes should have an even easier time this year in Columbus. The Bearcats have lost 26 of the last 33 times they've been a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. Play on OHIO STATE

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This is an 8* on TULANE

When you are as terrible as Tulane was last season, a coaching change is all but assured. The Green Wave finished 4-27 in 2018-19, a shockingly bad record when you consider they had a former NBA coach in Mike Dunleavy in charge of the program. Ron Hunter likely will never coach in the NBA, but he's a massive upgrade from Dunleavy in the college ranks. Tulane's new coach comes over from Georgia State, who he led to three NCAA Tournament appearances in the last five years, including one memorable 1st round upset.  Hunter did lose last year's leading scorer Caleb Daniels, who left for Villanova. But Hunter brought in four transfers of his own, one of them (Teshaun Hightower) likely to be the team's leading scorer this year. SE Louisiana also had a first year coach, David Keifer, who was previously an assistant here. But Keifer lost the top two scorers from last year's team and they accounted for about 33 points per game. Unlike Hunter and Tulane, Keifer doesn't seem to have an adequate way to replace that lost production. This is a big game for Hunter, who is looking to make a statement in his first game. It's a shockingly low number for a home game. Tulane should win by double digits. Play on TULANE

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This is a 10* play on CAL

Despite winning only eight games last year and being picked to finish last in the Pac 12, California actually has some optimism this year. They've got a new coach and landed a key transfer that could end up leading the team in scoring. Pepperdine is a middle of the road WCC team. It is definitely uncharted territory to see them laying points on the road against a team from a superior conference. Cal's new coach is Mark Fox. He previously spent nine years at Georgia where he had six winning seasons, five postseason appearances (two NCAA Tourney) and won 55% of his games. It's a good land for the Bears. Fox's first big land was grand transfer Kareem South. South comes over from Texas A&M-CC. Despite being an inexperienced team, this season opener is a game Cal can win. For what it's worth, the Bears covered the final five games last year. Play on CAL

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This is an 8* play on OKC

Orlando hasn't been very good against the spread thus far. They are just 1-4-1 ATS. Even more disturbing is the fact they have yet to score 100 points in a game. This is 2019, people! The Magic take the league's worst offense to Oklahoma City on Tuesday. This is a rebuilding year for the Thunder, but so far they've taken advantage of poor public perception to go 4-2 ATS. They have the same number of SU wins (2) as Orlando. This won't be the first time OKC has been favored either. The first is a game they'd like to forget as they lost outright here at home to the Wizards. But the next game saw them bounce back with a 120-92 win over Golden State (were -1.5), also at home. Orlando has lost both of its road games so far. They shot a horrendous 24.5% from three-point range in those games. They are averaging just 93.5 points/game overall. OKC won its last game, beating New Orleans 115-104 as a two-point favorite. That was despite being short-handed. Six players scored 10 or more points. Go ahead and lay this short number. Play on OKC.

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This is a 8* on FIU

Both of these teams have plenty of experience. FIU has four starters back from a team that won 20 games last year. Mississippi State also has four starters back, but one of them won't play here because of a suspension. Looking at the way the line has moved for this opening night matchup, it's pretty clear "sharp" money sides with the underdog. So do we. The player suspended for MSU is Nick Weatherspoon. He will miss the first 10 games of the season. He also missed the final 10 of last season for the same undisclosed violation of team rules. The Bulldogs season did not end well as they were upset in the first round of the NCAA Tournament by Liberty. The Bulldogs also didn't look very good in an exhibition against vs. South Alabama, winning that game by only three points. FIU isn't getting a ton of respect right now. Maybe that's because they did lose last year's leading scorer, Brian Beard (17.5 PPG). But the Panthers employ a system that will keep them competitive here. That system was brought over by coach Jeremy Ballard, who was previously at VCU. If you know anything about the way VCU plays, then you should now know what to expect with FIU. It's an up-tempo game where they'll force a lot of turnovers. FIU played at the fastest tempo in the country last season. They forced 10.6 steals/game, which was #1 in the country. Play on FIU

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This is a 10* on HOUSTON

Houston had high expectations coming into the season. So it has to feel terribly disappointing to be only 3-3 through six games.  Last night was a humiliating 129-100 loss in Miami where they trailed 46-14 at the end of the first quarter. The Rockets are now 0-6 ATS on the young season.They're not about to go 0-82 ATS though and that's our mindset coming into Monday's game at Memphis. The Grizzlies aren't a good team. They're 1-4 with the only win coming in overtime, by a single point, on a buzzer beater.  Russell Westbrook is being given tonight off. But his absence is built into this line. It's a short number, one that we don't mind laying. The Rockets have been favored in every game this season. The Grizzlies have been underdogs in all of their games. Houston's problem lies on the defensive end as they are last in the league in points allowed. Good for them then that they are facing a Memphis team that is 2nd to last in offensive efficiency. The Rockets are 5-1 ATS the last six meetings with Memphis. Look for them to continue that mastery. Play on HOUSTON

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This is a 10* on SACRAMENTO

Two of the dregs of the league play Sunday in the Big Apple as the 1-5 Kings play the 1-5 Knicks. Besides matching records, something else the teams have in common is that they are both were involved in a close game Friday. But the difference is Sacramento won theirs won the NY lost. The Kings first win of the season was against Utah and at home. They won 102-101 on a last second putback. Obviously, after an 0-5 start, they'd take a win anyway they can get it. But even before beating the Jazz, which is an impressive win by the way, there were signs of improvement. The Kings played much better against Charlotte and Denver then they did in the first three games. The Knicks lost on a last second shot Friday, 104-102 to Boston. Their only win came in a game where they had to rally from an 18-point deficit and that was against the Bulls. So New York pretty easily could be 0-6 right now. We understand there may be some hesitation to lay points with Sacramento away from home. But this is a really short number. They also beat the Knicks twice last year. It was easily forgotten because of the 0-5 start, but the Kings were supposed to be fairly competitive this year. The Knicks are still one of the worst teams in the league. No matter the opponent, we're glad to bet that they'll lose on any given night. A loss is all we need here. Play on SACRAMENTO

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This is an 8* play on SAN ANTONIO

San Antonio has the odd juxtaposition of having won every game straight up, but having lost all of them against the spread. They are 3-0 SU/0-3 ATS, which isn't really something you see all that often, whether at the start of the year or at any point, really. So this is obviously the first time they've been an underdog this season and it comes against a Clippers team playing in the second game of a back to back. Kawhi Leonard was given last night off and the Clippers faded badly down the stretch, losing to the Jazz 110-96. Paul George has yet to play at all this season. Like the Spurs, the Clippers have also failed to cover three in a row. The team isn't going to continue shooting almost 40% from three-point land. The Spurs come into their first road game fully healthy and will be highly motivated to beat former teammate Leonard. In their last game, the Spurs caught Portland in the second game of a back to back and led that one by as much as 19 points. Play on SAN ANTONIO

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This is an 8* play on DENVER

While this seems like a bit of a "square" play, fact is the Kings aren't a very good team right now. They've opened with three straight losses and all of them have been by double digits. Getting blown out by Phoenix to start the season was a troubling sign. But even worse than that 29-point defeat was losing Marvin Bagley III, who is one of their top players. Bagley is expected to be out for at least a month. Something else that seems "out" in Sacramento is defense. They have let every opponent shoot 50% or better. Saturday night, they were buried in Utah, 113-81. Now they must face Denver, who is 2-0 and doing an excellent job defensively. Being 2-0 while barely shooting 40% overall is actually a good sign for a Nuggets team we know can score. Our guess is they find the offensive touch tonight. Another of Sacramento's key players, De'Aaron Fox is battling a hip injury as well. We just can't see this being a close game as the Nuggets are 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS the last seven meetings. Play on DENVER 

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This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE

Both sides are coming off surprising results here. Cleveland won its home opener as a 5-point dog, beating undermanned Indiana 110-99. While that was going on, Milwaukee blew a 21-point lead at home to Miami and lost in overtime. Let's look for order to be restored on Monday. The Cavs are going to be one of the worst teams in the league this year. They scored only 85 points against Orlando in the first game, which was on the road. Indiana did not have leading scorer Victor Oladipo for the second game. The Bucks are the obvious choice to finish first in the East. They are going to be too much for Cleveland, provided they stop fouling and can make their usual number of threes. Houston and Miami were able to go to the free throw line a combined 75 times against Milwaukee. Cleveland is averaging just 22 foul shots per game and when they get there, they really aren't making them (65%). Milwaukee attempts over 50 three pointers per game and if they are making 15-20, the Cavs lack the firepower to keep up. Three different times last season, the Bucks beat the Cavs by double digits. The two games here at home were decided by a combined 38 points. Play on MILWAUKEE

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This is a 10* play on NEW ORLEANS

This was supposed to be a spotlight game for the Pelicans #1 draft choice Zion Williamson, but he got hurt in the preseason so ESPN is going to have to find something else to talk about. In the first game without Williamson, the Pelicans took Toronto to overtime Wednesday. They ended up not covering (lost 130-122) as they were 7.5-point dogs, a brutal result for anyone who may have taken the points. As tough a loss as it was for the Pelicans and their backers, we're looking for them to take their frustrations out on Dallas in the home opener Friday. That first game showed the Pelicans still must be taken seriously even without their prized rookie. There were just too many turnovers, especially late in the second half and in overtime. Dallas got to play a cupcake in its season opener, Washington, but didn't cover as nine-point favorites. They won 108-100. So we're looking at both teams coming off 1-pt ATS losses. The game is in New Orleans where the Mavericks lost twice last year. The Pelicans got 57 points from their bench against Toronto, showing they are more than just Williamson. It being a short number, let's lay it! Play on NEW ORLEANS

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This is an 8* on Philly

Milwaukee comes into the year as the favorite to win the NBA’s Eastern Conference. As for the debate over “who’s #2?” it probably comes down to one of these teams.The 76ers host the Celtics to open the year and the winner will have made an early season statement in the Atlantic Division. We like the 76ers at home as they have more minutes returning from last season. Plus they nabbed Al Horford away from the Celtics. Horford joins Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid as the stars in Philly. Embiid was not healthy in the playoffs and this is obviously a much better team when he is healthy. Remember that Philly took eventual champion Toronto to seven games in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. Boston also lost in the semis, but there’s a lot of change here with Kemba Walker replacing Kyrie Irving, who was a failed experiment. Boston has covered the last five head to head meetings, but it’s time for that to change Wednesday as the Sixers should easily cover this short number at home. Play on PHILADELPHIA

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This is a 10* play on GOLDEN STATE

It's do or die time for the Warriors on Monday. They hope to accomplish what the Bruins did last in NHL; that's stay alive by winning on the road. Of course, they're task is a whole lot tougher than the Bruins as they trail in this series 3 games to 1. In the entire history of the NBA Finals, only one team has ever come back to win after trailing 3-1. Golden State knows this very well as it happened to them back in 2016 against Cleveland. The big news is that Kevin Durant has practiced and is listed as questionable for Game #5. Even if he doesn't end up playing, we're still taking the Warriors. They're too good to go down without a fight. Klay Thompson and Kevon Looney both returned for Game 4. Before the last two games, they'd never lost two in a row at home in the playoffs under Kerr. Their only three-game playoff losing streak under Kerr came in that 2016 Finals vs. LeBron and the Cavs. Could Toronto be too "amped up" for this? We look for this to be a big bounce back game offensively for Golden State with or without Durant. Play on GOLDEN STATE

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This is a 10* Play on GOLDEN STATE

Golden State's string of less than enthralling performances continued in Game #3 as they lost 123-109. The defeat of course comes with some major caveats, those being the absences of both Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson (not to mention reserve Kevon Looney as well). The seriously short-handed Warriors ended up shooting just 39.6% from the field (a playoff low) and really had no answer for Toronto defensively, allowing them to shoot 52.4% from the field and make 17 three-pointers. We look for the Warriors to rebound in Game #4. Thompson will be back after missing a playoff game for the first time in his career. Toronto isn't going to shoot that well again as all five starters were in double figures as was reserve Fred Van Vleet. Remember that they shot just 37.2% in Game #2 after being right above 50% in Game #1. Steph Curry went for 47 points in Game #3, but won't need to match that production with Thompson back in the lineup. The Warriors are 13-5 ATS off their previous 18 ATS defeats and have dropped consecutive games in the playoffs just once, both coming in Houston. They have never dropped consecutive home playoff games under Kerr, so we will lay the points Friday. Play on GOLDEN STATE

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This is a 10* play on TORONTO

The bodies are certainly starting to pile up for Golden State. Already without Kevin Durant, they've now lost reserve forward Kevon Looney for the remainder of this series and Klay Thompson is injured too. Though Thompson has vowed to play in Game #3, we still don't like the idea of the Warriors laying this many points to a revenge-minded and healthy Raptors squad. Toronto has been the underdog five times in the playoffs. They've won three of the games straight up and it should have been four (blown Gm 1 lead vs. Milwaukee). They'll shoot better than 37.2% from the field here (FG% from Game 2), that's for sure. Golden State has been down by double digits in five straight games now. They're the ones who will struggle to score here, not just because they aren't close to 100 percent, but also because the Raptors play great defense. They held Golden State under their season average in Games 1 & 2. There have been only four games this entire postseason run where they've allowed more than 109 points. So taking the points would seem ideal here. Golden State is also 1-7-1 ATS off its last nine straight up victories. Play on TORONTO

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This is a 10* play on TORONTO

Toronto probably surprised a lot of people by winning Game 1, but not us. They had the home court advantage and with Golden State playing without Kevin Durant, the Warriors were ripe for the picking. Look for the Raptors to continue to ratchet up the defense here as they are giving up less than 97 points/game at home in the playoffs and there have been just eight games total where they've allowed more than 100 points. Game 1 was one of them, but that's to be expected vs. the Warriors. Still, without Durant, Golden State was held below its season average in scoring. They have lost all three games to Toronto this season, two of them taking place in Canada. The Raptors have covered the spread in their last four home games and last five games overall. Play on TORONTO

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This is an 8* play on MILWAUKEE 

The Bucks find themselves facing elimination tonight, which is certainly NOT a position they expected to be in after taking the first two games of the series. But they were a little lucky to win Game #1 remember (outscored Toronto 32-17 in 4th Quarter) and definitely lucky to cover. They rolled to a wire-to-wire 125-103 win and cover in Game #2, but then basically never led in either game in Toronto (even though Game #3 went to double overtime). Things figured to return to normal in Game #5, which was back at home, and they did look good early with Milwaukee taking an early 12-point lead. But then it was the Raptors turn to pull off an impressive comeback as they held the Bucks to just 67 points over the last three quarters. After the home team started the series 4-0 SU/ATS, not many are going to expect the road team to win two straight. But we wouldn't make the mistake of giving up on the Bucks, who we still feel are the better team and are also a perfect 9-0 against the spread this season on the road when coming off a straight up loss as a favorite. Play on MILWAUKEE

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This is a 10* play on MILWAUKEE

Milwaukee has turned in one dominant game in the Eastern Conference Finals (Game 2), but mostly trailed in the other two, so in some regards they should feel fortunate to be up in the series. They did have a golden opportunity to "steal one" on the road Sunday, which would have given them an insurmountable 3-0 series lead, but they ultimately lost in double overtime. With Golden State having swept its way into the NBA Finals, there's a little bit of pressure on the Bucks now to end this series quickly. We should obviously not discount the Raptors, but a win here by the Bucks and this series goes back to Milwaukee for Game 5 with a chance to close it out. Defensively, Milwaukee continues to do a great job as it is allowing less than 40% shooting for the entire playoffs. Perhaps even more impressive is their 21-5 ATS record coming off a SU loss. They are the better team here. Play on MILWAUKEE

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This is a 10* play on GOLDEN STATE

The Warriors broke the hearts of the Blazers with a come from behind victory in Game #2 and they may very well have broken their spirit by doing the same in Game #3. Both instances saw the reigning champs battle back from a double digit halftime deficit. Blowing leads like that - in consecutive games - is really tough to battle back from and down 0-3 in a series would seem like the ideal spot to fade such a team as no team in history has come back to win a series down 0-3, so Portland basically knows its season ended Saturday night. Unlike Game #2 (when we cashed the Blazers plus the points), they could not even cover the spread in Game #3, losing by 11 as their poor shooting continued. Assuming Golden State does not fall into yet another early hole, covering the spread here should not be a problem at all. They have incentive to sweep as it will give them more time off before the NBA Finals and maybe Kevin Durant can return for that series. Play on GOLDEN STATE

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This is an 8* play on PORTLAND

Despite not playing all that well in Game #1, Portland was very much alive going into the fourth quarter. They only trailed by six. Golden State took it from there, outscoring the Blazers 39-23 the rest of the way for a comfortable 116-94 win and cover. We were happy with that result seeing as we'd laid the points with the Warriors. But for Game #2, we took Portland and the points. That proved to be the absolute right call as the Blazers led outright almost the entire way. They were up by 15 at halftime and up eight with just 4:30 left in the game. But as we all now know, they lost 114-111. That's a bitter pill to swallow, but at least Portland is back at home for Game #3, which helps soften the blow. They are 37-10 SU at home for the year, including 5-1 in the playoffs. Their scoring average jumps to 118.1 points/game at the Moda Center. Let us not forget the Warriors are still playing without Kevin Durant. They've gone 3-0 since his injury, but they're more likely to miss him on the road. After Game #2's non-cover, the Warriors are now 3-8 ATS following a their last 11 straight up victories. Portland HAS to have this one. Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 10* play on PORTLAND

Portland probably couldn't have played any worse in Game 1. Yet they were only down six going into the fourth quarter. Golden State took it from there, outscoring the Blazers 39-23 the rest of the way for a comfortable 116-94 win and cover. We were happy with that result seeing as we'd laid the points with the Warriors. But Portland obviously wasn't and to make this a series they're going to need to start shooting a lot better than they have recently. They have a field goal percentage of only 41.3 the last five games, including a playoff low 36.1% in Game 1. Three-point shooting in particular is due to improve. History is on the Blazers side as well, at least this season, as they are a perfect 8-0 against the spread seeking revenge for a double digit road loss. Remember that this team won twice in Denver last round and the Nuggets had the league's best home record. Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 10* play on TORONTO

Neither Eastern Conference Finalist had a very hard time in Round 1 with the Raptors advancing after only five games against the Magic and the Bucks sweeping the Pistons. Toronto needed seven games to get rid of Philadelphia in Round 2, however, with the series coming down to a heart-stopping shot by Kawhi Leonard. It was the first playoff buzzer beater in a winner take all game since the infamous Michael Jordan shot over Craig Ehlo 30 years ago. While the Raptors were playing until Sunday, Milwaukee has enjoyed a full week off since eliminating the Celtics in five games. They are 8-1 SU and ATS in the playoffs and have the home court edge in this series. But history shows they might come out a bit rusty for this one. Coming off similar rest between the first two series, they lost Game 1 to Boston here at home, dropping them to 2-4 ATS this season playing with three or more days rest. They are just 5-14-1 ATS their last 20 games in this situation. With the Raptors allowing less than 100 points/game in the playoffs, our recommendation is to take the points in Game 1. Play on TORONTO

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This is an 8* play on GOLDEN STATE

Golden State is making its fifth straight Western Conference Finals appearance while Portland is here for the first time since 2000. The experience edge should ultimately prevail here in Game 1 and we're going to lay the points. It's easy to forget, but the Blazers were down 17 in the first half of their eventual Game 7 victory against Denver on Sunday. The Warriors, playing without Kevin Durant, eliminated Houston on Friday. The couple of extra days between series is a nice edge for Golden State as they have to keep going on sans Durant. They've got the edge in rest and home court. We have Houston rated stronger than Portland so this is one of those rare times a team (Golden State) is actually facing a weaker team after advancing. Even though they did win Game 7 in Denver, the Blazers are still only 24-23 SU on the road this season. They are 1-5 ATS following their last 6 straight up victories. They are just 9-22 ATS their last 31 trips into Oakland and that includes a 28-point loss earlier in the season. Play GOLDEN STATE

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This is a 10* play on DENVER

Going into each of Denver's two series thus far, we've stated the fact they had the home court advantage would be vital. Once again, we find them hosting a Game 7. The first round series against San Antonio ended with the Nuggets winning 90-86 here at the Pepsi Center. Though they won, it ended up being a terrible beat (we had Denver) as they blew the cover late (were -6.5). It was a game they led wire to wire and were up double digits much of the way. The reason the home court edge has been so crucial in these first two series is not only because Denver has such a dramatic home vs. road split, but so too have each of their opponents. The Nuggets have the best home record in the league at 39-9 straight up, but are just 22-23 on the road. San Antonio had the second best home record in the league in the regular season, but was just 16-25 on the road. Portland isn't quite as dramatic, but they are 37-10 at home vs. just 23-23 on the road. Denver has lost one home game in each round, but notable is that they have given up 98 points or less four of the last five games here. They'll shoot a lot better today than they did in Game #6 simply because of the return home. Portland has followed up its last five SU wins with an ATS loss. Play on DENVER 

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This is a 10* play on HOUSTON

We'll look to stay perfect in this series by going with the Rockets in Game #6. Now laying points may not seem like an especially fruitful venture, considering the way this series has gone so far. All five games have been decided by six points or less, however, the home team is 5-0 straight up as well. The Rockets won Game #3 by five points (OT) and Game #4 by four points. But they are this big a favorite for a reason and that reason is Kevin Durant's calf injury, which will almost certainly keep him out of Game #6. No one should ever root for a player to get injured, but Rockets fans have to feel like this is a bit of "poetic justice" considering this is exactly what happened to them with Chris Paul in last year's Western Conference Finals. After losing Paul, the Rockets lost the next two games and the rest is history. Now they'll hope history repeats itself with the Warriors and Durant. This is the most points Golden State has ever gotten under Steve Kerr in the playoffs. Durant was leading the league in scoring in the playoffs at 35.4 points/game, so the loss of him can't be overstated. The Warriors did not look like the same team once he went down. The Rockets are 4-1 ATS in this series and 9-1-1 ATS their last 11 home games. Play on HOUSTON

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This is a 10* play on PORTLAND

Look for a big time rebound from the Blazers at home in Game #6 Thursday night. They were blown out in Game #5, losing 124-98. It was easily their worst game in the playoffs and it put them behind the proverbial 8-ball as they'll now have to win the next two games to make the Western Conference Finals. But winning here at home should come pretty easy. Our feeling, much like Denver's first round series against San Antonio, is that home court advantage would play an extremely important role in this series. The Nuggets have the best home record in the league, but are a below .500 team on the road. The Blazers are 36-10 SU in home games this year, though they did lose Game 4 here. But we should see across the board improvement from Game #5 where they only shot 36.7%, easily their worst field goal percentage of any playoff game yet. Something we've harped on previously is that Denver is way worse defensively on the road. They allow less than 103 points/game at the Pepsi Center. On the road, that number jumps to 110.8. The Blazers are a perfect 7-0 ATS this season when seeking revenge for a double digit road loss. Play on PORTLAND

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This is an 8* play on MILWAUKEE

It's all over but the shouting in Boston as the Celtics are falling apart before our very eyes. Kyrie Irving seems to have lost the trust of his teammates as he's shot them right out of this series. Not that the rest of the team is doing much. In the last three games, Boston has shot 103 of 257, which is barely above 40%. That simply won't get it done against a team like Milwaukee, who just put up 123 points in both games at Boston. The Bucks have clearly emerged as the better team here and may very well be getting Malcolm Brogden back for Game #5 as well. With the series back in Milwaukee, what chance do the Celtics really have. The Bucks are already a league best +12.1 points per game at home this season. This has all the makings of the Celtics waving the proverbial white flag. Milwaukee's superiority just wasn't taken seriously enough. This team is legit. They've gone 38-18-2 ATS their last 58 games. Play on MILWAUKEE

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This is a 10* play on BOSTON

Boston may have looked like the better team in Game 1, but since then Milwaukee has taken control of the series with back to back wins where they scored 123 points. The Celtics shot poorly in both losses, but we'll back them here in a must win spot in Game 4 at home. You not only have to expect better shooting here, but better defense as well. Yes, the Bucks were #1 in the league in scoring in the regular season and have had their way offensively the last two games. But the three-point shooting we've seen from them in the last two games is bound to "taper off." They were north of 40 percent from behind the arc in Games #2 and #3, going 35 of 84. That's high volume, which is not new for them, but the percentage and number of makes is more than usual. There have been only four times all season where Boston has lost three or more straight games. All we have to do here is basically lay a bucket in order for them to avoid doing so in what is obviously their biggest game all year. They've lost consecutive home games just twice all season. Play on BOSTON

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This is a 10* play on DENVER

Nobody wants to lose in the NBA Playoffs, but going down in four overtimes is particularly gut-wrenching. As difficult to "swallow" as Game 3's loss may be for Denver, we like them to bounce back on Sunday. We did have the Nuggets in Game #3 and sure enough they did cover for us, losing by only three points (140-137) as a 4.5-point underdog. Obviously, Friday's game going four overtimes is going to have an effect on both teams here. At least it's a night game, so there will be about 48 hours to recover. Portland is 0-4 ATS off its last four SU wins here in the playoffs. The underdog has also gone 5-2 ATS the past seven meetings between them and Denver. The Nuggets are 4-0 ATS their last four visits to the Moda Center. They've also been the ones to cover five of the last seven meetings and the only two exceptions were Game 2 (shot poorly) and a game back in January where they won by three, but were caught laying -4.5. Take the points. Play on DENVER 

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This is an 8* play on PHILADELPHIA

The line has jumped the fence for Game 4 (Philly now favored). While that might mean "less value" on the 76ers, it also means public sentiment has now clearly swung against the Raptors, a team whose past playoff failings may be set to catch up with them again. The 76ers obviously outplayed the Raptors in Game 3, beating them 116-95 and looking like a completely different team on offense than what we saw in the first two games. Perhaps that should have been something we all saw coming as the Sixers do average 118.5 points/game at home, which is noticeably higher than their scoring average on the road (which is just 111.8 points/game). You won't be surprised to learn that the results have been much better for Philly at home compared to the road. At home, they have gone 34-11 and outscored opponents by 8.6 points/game. On the road, they have gone just 23-22 while actually being outscored over the course of the season. Philly has gone 6-1 straight up and against the spread since losing Game 1 in the first round. The line jumping the fence is also notable because the favorite has covered in 21 of the previous 30 meetings. The home team has covered seven of the last nine. Play on PHILADELPHIA

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This is a 10* play on HOUSTON

This is obviously as close to must win as it gets for Houston. No team has ever come back from an 0-3 deficit to win a series. But lots of teams have won when down 0-2 and they return home. That's the situation for the Rockets here. The good news is James Harden is fine after sustaining an eye injury in Game #2. Despite missing time, Harden still had his best shooting night of any playoff game. It's not as if the Rockets were outclassed in either game at Golden State. Both losses were by just six points. Remember that they took three of four from the Warriors in the regular season and were up three games to two in last year's Western Conference Final. They beat Golden State both times here at home in the regular season. They're also 7-1-1 ATS the last 9 home games. They won the three first round home games by a combined 59 points. The Warriors have failed to cover off any of their last five ATS wins. They are also 1-6 ATS off their last 7 SU wins. Play on HOUSTON

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This is a 10* play on DENVER

Coming into this series, we said that home court advantage would play a big role, just like it did in the Nuggets' first round series against the Spurs. There, Denver did drop Game 1 at home, but won its next three at the Pepsi Center and wound up advancing after the series went a full seven games. Despite a quick turnaround between series, Denver was able to beat Portland in Game #1, 121-113. But then they lost Game #2, 97-90, so we're all squared up going back to Portland. Homecourt is still important, but it's difficult to imagine Denver playing any worse than it did in Game #2. They shot jut 34.7% overall and were a hideous 6 of 29 from behind the three-point line. They even missed 10 of 26 free throw attempts. We like them getting points in Game #3 as they have covered five of their last seven trips here and they are 6-2-1 ATS the last nine matchups with Portland, no matter the location. Play on DENVER

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This is a 10* play on TORONTO

Toronto and Philadelphia had very similar Round 1 experiences. Both lost their respective Game 1's, on their home floor. But then both bounced back to win the next four games and advance. Toronto did so with defense, holding Orlando to an average of 89 points/game in the four wins. Philadelphia did so more with offense, averaging 127.5 points/game vs. Brooklyn. Through two games, this second round series has more closely resembled Toronto's style of play. The Sixers have failed to score 100 points in either game, though they did take Game 2 in Toronto by a score of 94-89. That was their first win in 15 tries up in Canada. Now we move to the City of Brotherly Love. While the 76ers may now have homecourt advantage, we believe the Raptors are still the better team. Philly is a little banged up in the frontcourt as both Joel Embiid and Mike Scott continue to battle injuries. The Raptors have now allowed fewer than 100 points in six straight games. We expect players such as Danny Green and Marc Gasol to play a lot better than they did in Game 2. Those two combined to make only 2 of 14 field goal attempts and the Raptors bench totaled only five points on 2 of 11 shooting. Should be a much better team effort tonight. Toronto is still on a 14-5 ATS run vs. Philadelphia and the last time they dropped back to back games ATS was late March (10-4 ATS overall since). Play on TORONTO

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This is a 10* play on DENVER

Denver dropped Game 1 of the last series (vs. San Antonio), but we don't see that happening here. Like the Spurs series, home court advantage figures to play a key role here in Round 2 vs. Portland. The Nuggets had the best home record in the league during the regular season and are now 37-8 straight up at the Pepsi Center. The got "backdoored" in Game 7 by San Antonio, winning by only four in a game they were favored to win by 6.5 points. But don't let that unlucky ATS result cloud the fact they led that game by double digits most of the way. Denver plays a lot better defense at home too. They gave up only 86 points in Game 7 after giving up only 90 in Game 5. For the year, they give up just 102.9 points per game at home, which is more than seven points less than what they give up on the road. Portland isn't quite as subpar as San Antonio on the road, but the Blazers record away from home is only 22-21. The Nuggets were 3-1 against the Blazers in the regular season, although every game was close. But the only time they lost to them was in the second game of a home and home, in Portland. The Trail Blazers are just 1-5-1 ATS the past seven meetings and they now have a problem in the frontcourt. Jusuf Nurkic is already out for the year and now Enes Kanter is dealing with a separated shoulder. Play on DENVER 

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This is an 8* play on HOUSTON

It's a familiar matchup on the Western Conference side of the draw, only this year the Rockets and Warriors are playing a round earlier. Last year, the Rockets took the Warriors to the brink of elimination and had a lead at home in Game 7 before wilting. Remember they also didn't have Chris Paul for the final two games of that series. Houston may not have the home court advantage this time around, but they do have Paul back in the lineup and come in as the hotter team. While Golden State surprisingly needed six games to eliminate the Clippers in the first round, the Rockets vanquished the Jazz in just five and are now 10-2 SU/9-3 ATS the past 12 games. One of the two straight up losses was by one point (regular season finale). The Warriors have not been a good team to bet on this season and they are 17-26-1 ATS at home. Taking the points in Game 1 looks to be the way to go.  Play on HOUSTON

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This is a 10* play on DENVER 

Historically speaking, home teams enjoy a decided edge in Game 7's in the NBA Playoffs (101-27 straight up record in shot-clock era). Look for that trend to continue with our lone Game 7 of this year's 1st round as Denver hosts San Antonio. The Nuggets are off a 17-point loss in Game 6. But before that, they'd won the last two games by a combined 32 points. Only one game in the entire series has been decided by less than nine points and each of the last three have been decided by 14 points or more. Being able to get a Game 7 at home is what Denver worked for in the regular season. They have the best home record in the league at 36-8 straight up and the numbers confirm they are a much better team here. Not only does scoring jump 6.2 points/game from road to home, their number of points allowed drops by 6.8 points/game. San Antonio (17-27 SU) happens to have the worst road record of any playoff team. We look for bench scoring and three-point shooting to be the key edge for the Nuggets in this winner take all game. Lay the points. Play on DENVER

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This is an 8* play on DENVER

The Nuggets were very fortunate not to be down 3-0 in this series as not only did they drop two of the first three games, but their one win (Game 2) saw them erase a 19-point second half deficit, mostly in the 4th quarter where they outscored the Spurs 39-23. But since falling behind by double digits again, early in Game 4, Denver really seems to have taken control of this series. They've won the last two games by a combined 32 points and now have a shot at closing out the Spurs tonight in Game 6. It is a road game, but the Nuggets have already won once here in San Antonio. Game 5 on Tuesday was definitely Denver's best showing in the series. They led by as many as 30 points. Nikola Jokic is almost averaging a triple double in his first ever playoff series and the Spurs appear to have no answer for him. Denver has pretty clearly been the better of these two teams most of this year. The Spurs are only 1-6 ATS their last 7 home games. Play on DENVER 

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This is a 10* play on UTAH

Utah stayed alive by winning Game 4, handily. They beat the Rockets 107-91 and that margin of victory should have them confident enough to head into Game #5 with a sense that further extending their season is a possibility. We're not saying the Jazz will win this one, but taking the points is the right way to go. Houston did not shoot the ball well either game in Salt Lake City. They shot 38.4% as a team in Game #3 with James Harden missing his first 15 attempts from the field. Then they shot 35.4% in Game #4, collectively missing their final 13 attempts from three-point range. Yes, the series now shifts back to Houston. But the Jazz are going to compete here a lot more than they did in either Games #1 and #2. This is too many points for Houston to lay to a desperate Utah team. Play on UTAH

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This is an 8* play on OKC

It's probably fair to say that the majority of first round series in the NBA Playoffs have gone "according to script." The way the Rockets handled the Jazz in the first three games of that series was maybe a little surprising. But probably not as surprising to most as the fact that it's Portland up three games to one on Oklahoma City. This was a series where the lower seeded team was actually favored to advance. The Thunder swept the regular season series, winning all four times against the Blazers. Portland also has a key player injured (Jusuf Nurkic). Game 4 is what probably jumped out to most as the Blazers became the first road team to win a game in the series. They held Russell Westbrook without a basket in the second half, which is really stunning. We know that the Thunder have lost the public's trust, but not ours as we like them plus the points facing elimination. Remember they actually closed as the favorite for Game #2 here in Portland, so there's some good value. Play on OKC

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This is an 8* play on HOUSTON

We also look for Houston to close out Utah Monday night. It's pretty clear that the Jazz are overmatched in this series and Game #3 was basically their "death knell." Losing at home on a night where James Harden shot the ball horribly is not something that can be overcome nor is a 3-0 series deficit. Going back to the end of the regular season, the Rockets have won and covered 9 of the last 10 games. The only loss was by one point to Oklahoma City, which in retrospect was the worst possible thing to happen to the Jazz. That loss caused Houston to drop a spot in the standings, setting up this matchup. Utah would have been a lot better off playing Portland. The Jazz did beat the Rockets in a couple of early season meetings, but have since dropped five straight to them. Like the Pistons, they have shot very poorly in the playoffs (40.1 FG%) and are averaging less than 100 points/game (96.3). We don't even have to lay a big number here like we do with the Bucks. You can bank on Harden having a better shooting night than he did in Game #3. The Rockets look like one of the best teams in the league right now. Play on HOUSTON. 

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This is an 8* play on MILWAUKEE

We expect both series to close out tonight, starting in Detroit where the Pistons appear as ill-prepared for the playoffs as any team in recent memory. They have been completely dominated by the Bucks, losing all three games by 16 or more points and there's no reason to believe Game #4 will be any different. Milwaukee is completely superior in every way here and not even the return of Blake Griffin can change that as he's not completely healthy. In the series, the Pistons have been held to an average of 96 points per game on 38.0% shooting, showing that Milwaukee (the East's highest scoring team) can also play some defense. The Bucks are #1 in defensive efficiency in the league in addition to being #1 overall in scoring. They have outscored the Pistons by 72 points through three games. Giannis Antetokounmpo only scored 14 points Saturday, his fewest in any game since January and the Bucks still won by 16. Detroit hasn't won a playoff game since '08 and that certainly won't change here. Play on MILWAUKEE.

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This is an 8* play on LA CLIPPERS

The Clippers have trailed big in all three games so they should feel lucky to only be down 2-1 in the series. Game 2 saw them pull off the greatest comeback in NBA Playoff history, at least in terms of margin overcome (31 points). But they were never really in Game #3. Golden State led by 17 after one quarter and was up 33 entering the fourth. The Warriors have enjoyed a lead of at least 19 points in all three games. But Game #4 should be different. The Clippers shot poorly in Game #3, especially from deep where they went 7 of 32. They shot 37.2% overall, which won't cut it against the Warriors. That's surprising too as LA has been a strong home team all season. Golden State was obviously motivated going into Game #3 after blowing the 31-point lead in Game #2. Will that same motivation be present today? The Warriors are 4-10 ATS off a their previous 14 ATS victories. Play on LA CLIPPERS

AAA

This is a 10* play on BOSTON

We look for Boston to finish off the sweep Sunday. It's pretty clear to us at this point that Indiana just can't get consistent scoring nor can they beat Boston. It's not just this series you see. There were also two meetings late in the regular season where the Celtics dominated. Four of the five losses have seen the Pacers held under 100 points. Now they have held the halftime lead in two of the three games in this series and only trailed by two in the other. But they are averaging only 35 points in the second half and that will obviously not cut the mustard. Indiana has only won 4 of its last 12 games overall, so in a way you could see this early playoff flameout coming. In the regular season, it was the defense that was costing the Pacers down the stretch. They allowed 11 of their last 13 opponents to score at least 102 points. Now its the offense that is averaging only 87 points per game in the playoffs/ The Celtics underachieved in the regular season, but are clearly hitting their stride now. Play on BOSTON

AAA

This is an 8* play on SAN ANTONIO

San Antonio very easily - and probably should - be up 2-0 in this series. After a superb defensive effort allowed them to take Game 1, the Spurs were up by 19 in Game 2 and appeared well on their way to taking both games in Denver. But then Jamal Murray went off for the Nuggets, scoring 21 of his 24 points in the fourth quarter (had started the game 0 for 8). The Nuggets outscored the Spurs 39-23 in the 4th and now we head back to San Antonio tied at one game apiece. While having the league's best home record, Denver is below .500 on the road. San Antonio's home vs. road split is even more pronounced. They should actually be thrilled to have earned a split in Denver, given a 16-25 SU road record. At home they are 32-9 and shoot 41.9% from three-point range. Defensively, the Spurs have made major strides the last couple months. Before the 4th quarter happened Tuesday, it looked like they might hold Denver under 100 pts in two straight games. Going back to 2012, the Nuggets have lost 13 straight here in San Antonio. Play on SAN ANTONIO

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This is a 10* play on DETROIT

The Pistons appeared ill-prepared for their 1st postseason game since 2016. Playing without Blake Griffin, they were no match for top seed Milwaukee, who thumped them 121 to 86 as 15-point favorites. Detroit last won a playoff game in 2008. If they continue to play the way they did Sunday, that streak will continue into next year. It's not a shocker to see the number at where it is for Game 2. Few will give the Pistons a shot Wednesday, let alone the rest of the series. They've played the Bucks five times this year and five times they have lost, four of those coming by 10 or more points. The three games in Milwaukee have seen them lose by 35, 23 and 23 points. But as the Clippers showed Monday, anything is possible in the playoffs. After a blowout loss is often the best time to bet on a team (zig zag theory!) and while we don't see Detroit winning Game 2, we do expect them to cover. While Griffin seems unlikely to play, Andre Drummond won't be ejected again like he was in Game 1. Generally speaking, this is too many points to lay in the playoffs and the Pistons will play better this time. Play on DETROIT

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This is a 10* play on TORONTO

Toronto's atrocious history in Game 1's continued with a shocking 104-101 loss to Orlando on Saturday. With that result, the Raptors are now 2-13 SU all-time in Game 1's, including 1-10 in Round 1. Kyle Lowry pulled another playoff "disappearing act," in being held SCORELESS for the game on 0 for 7 shooting (all but one attempt was a three-pointer). But that's all water under the bridge now and history suggests the Raptors bounce back Tuesday in Game 2. Outside of series against LeBron James' Cleveland teams, Toronto has won four straight Game 2s. All four were played at home. Lowry has his own personal history of following terrible playoff performances with a good one. The Raptors actually outshot the Magic overall in Game 1, but were worse from behind the arc and at the free throw line. You can't deny that Orlando has been "better than advertised" in the second half of the season, however, they got their road win. The zig zag theory isn't perfect, but I'll side with Toronto here. Remember they have Kawhi Leonard this year. Play on TORONTO

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This is a 10* play on PHILADELPHIA

Forget about the talk about cell phones, Philadelphia was flat out embarrassed on its home court in Game 1, losing to the Nets 111-102. Aside from early in the 1st quarter, the Sixers never led and were down by as many 17. They should bounce back for Game 2. They certainly aren't likely to miss 22 of 25 three-pointers again like they did Saturday. Joel Embiid's knee remains a question mark, but it's hard not to like the Sixers in this spot considering a 31-11 SU home record and they are 31-15 ATS L46 here against teams that have losing road records. Brooklyn is still only 20-22 straight up on the road this year and is probably "content" having taken Game 1. The Nets got 59 points from their bench in Game 1. Similar to Philly's woeful three-point shooting, that is unlikely to be repeated tonight. The 76ers are still the better team and should win comfortably at home. Play on PHILADELPHIA 

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This is a 10* play on HOUSTON

Houston ended up finishing fourth in the Western Conference, but this was one of the hottest teams in the league down the stretch. They'd won and covered six in a row before losing by one to Oklahoma City in the final regular season game. That one loss is what dropped them from third to fourth and while it means playing a gritty Utah team, the Rockets simply have too much talent to falter here. No team was better in the second half of the season. They went 20-5 posting the best net efficiency rating (+10.7) as they were second overall in both offensive and defensive efficiency. James Harden leads all players in scoring with a 36.1 points per game average this season. Remember the Rockets eliminated the Jazz from last year's playoffs, winning in just five games. The four wins were all of the double digit variety and came by an average of 14.5 points per game. Play on HOUSTON

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This is an 8* play on PORTLAND

The Lakers are 2-1 against the Blazers, but that's with LeBron James playing all three games. The King was officially shutdown for the year last week and his teammates packed it long before that. Though they've won two straight, beating the Clippers by five and Jazz by four, the Lakers have been a terrible team to bet on this season. Only the Knicks have a worse ATS mark. Four would-be starters, including James, aren't playing anymore. Without Jusuf Nurkic, the Blazers are a little shorthanded as well, but they just got back C.J. McCollum and will be looking to clinch homecourt advantage for the first round of the playoffs tonight. All they need is a win. While covering the spread might seem like more of a challenge, Portland is 10-2 ATS its last 12 road games against teams that give up 110 or more points per game. They win big tonight. Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 10* play on VIRGINIA

We are guaranteed to have a first time national champion on Monday when Texas Tech takes on Virginia. Texas Tech beat Michigan State 61-51 in one national semifinal while Virginia outlasted Auburn 63-62 in the other. It should be pointed out that Virginia led their game by as much as 10 points before watching that lead go away and then needing the refs to bail them out in the end. We think that due to the nature of the win against Auburn, Virginia isn't getting the proper credit here. Our own line was between 4.5 and 5 points, so there's value on the favorite. The Cavaliers spent much of the year ranked #1 in the country and when they weren't, they were close to the top. Texas Tech has saved its best basketball for the right time, but Virginia will be the toughest opponent they've faced all year. Virginia may not have covered Saturday, but they are 16-5 ATS the 21 times they have been coming off an ATS loss. Texas Tech is just 1-6 ATS vs. the ACC. This will be an ugly game, but Virginia will be the winner. Play on VIRGINIA

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This is a 10* on PORTLAND

This line has already risen quite dramatically, but we're still anticipating a big Portland win. This is the second leg of a home and home between the Blazers and Nuggets. Denver won at home, 119-110, on Friday as Portland was short-handed. They played without Jusuf Nurkic, C.J. McCollum and Seth Curry. Damian Lillard was held to 14 points on 3 of 14 shooting. Even without the some of those key players still, the Blazers should bounce back at home. Denver could rest some of its starters, which is why the line is on the move. Portland is also 30-9 at home this season and hoping to avoid what would be a season sweep by the Nuggets. The first three games have all been decided by single digits with two of them by a total of 4 points. So it's not as if Portland hasn't been competitive. They need a strong finish to the regular season to clinch home court advantage for the opening round of the playoffs. Play on PORTLAND

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This is an 8* play on TEXAS TECH

Playing both Michigan State games last weekend worked out well for us as we hit the Under in both. After having little difficulty in defeating Minnesota and LSU, Duke was obviously going to present Sparty with a much greater challenge and sure enough that was a one-point win (68-67) where MSU only shot 42.9% from the field. That was the 1st time they had been matched up against a team on par with them defensively and it resulted in a Tournament-low for points scored. When it comes to defense, no team has a better efficiency rating than Texas Tech, who just held the #1 offensive team in the country (Gonzaga) to 69 points on 42.4% shooting. Before that, the Red Raiders held Michigan to 44 points (32.7 FG%), Buffalo to 58 points (36.5 FG%) and Northern Kentucky to 57 points (37.1 FG%). So tonight should be another new low in points for Michigan State in the Tourney. Texas Tech is a perfect 4-0 ATS in this Tournament, winning the last two games as underdogs, so they're used to being in this position. Before upsetting Gonzaga in the Elite Eight, they'd won by 15 or more in each Tourney game with the showings against both Buffalo and Michigan being especially exemplary. Both teams have been great against the spread of late. But Texas Tech is the call here thanks to that defense. Play on TEXAS TECH

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This is a 10* play on VIRGINIA

It's certainly going to be a contrast of styles in this first Final Four matchup with the high-flying Auburn attack going against the methodical pace Virginia likes to set. Ultimately, something has to give and we believe defense will win out in the end. That means Virginia, who has been one of the top teams in College Basketball all season, as opposed to an Auburn team that saved its best basketball for the Tournament. The Tigers have already downed Kansas, North Carolina and Kentucky thanks to an incredible display of three-point shooting. But they have not yet had to go against a team that guards the three-point line as well as Virginia does (28.7 3-pt % allowed). Remember Auburn lost one of its top scorers - Chuma Okeke - in the Sweet 16. Without him, they were still able to defeat Kentucky, but that's an opponent they are very familiar with. Virginia is a different story. Lost in the shuffle here is the fact the Cavaliers have a higher offensive efficiency rating than Auburn. They also only turn it over nine times per game and do a good job of getting to the free throw line. When they get to the FT line, they convert at a 74% clip. Virginia also actually shoots a better percentage from three-point range (for the season) compared to Auburn. The lone 1-seed still standing gets the job done Saturday night. Play on VIRGINIA

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This is a 10* play on MIAMI

It's unusual to say, but Miami is probably glad that this very crucial game is taking place on the road. After dropping a decision at home to Boston two nights ago, the Heat's home record fell to 18-22 straight up and 15-23-2 against the spread. On the road, they are 20-18 SU and 23-15 ATS. You don't see a team with a better record on the road than at home very often, but this is definitely an instance of that. The Heat come into this game a 1/2 game back of both Brooklyn and Orlando. They need to pass at least one of those two teams to get into the playoffs. Minnesota should provide them such an opportunity. The Timberwolves already know when their season will end and that's a week from now in Denver, the final game of the regular season. For the 13th time in 14 years, they aren't going to the playoffs. They did win Wednesday night at Dallas, but have put together back to back wins just one time since the All Star Break. That came in a pair of home games against Washington and New York, two very bad teams. Miami has to have this one and they'll get it. Play on MIAMI

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This is an 8* play on SAN ANTONIO

San Antonio is in 8th place in the Western Conference, which would mean a first round series against Golden State. No team wants to be the first to draw the Warriors, so expect the Spurs to do everything they can to move up. That starts with winning this game in Washington against a Wizards team that is just playing out the string. It is likely the Wizards will finish this season with their lowest win total since 2012-13. They just lost here at home to Chicago after blowing an eight-point fourth quarter lead. That's demoralizing. As for San Antonio's motivation, they will have plenty. Greg Popovich was tossed 63 seconds into an eventual 113-85 loss to the Nuggets on Wednesday. Expect him and his team to respond like you might think. The Spurs shoot a league-best 39.2% from three-point range, so they should bury a Wizards team that is among the very worst in the league defensively. Play on SAN ANTONIO

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This is a 10* play on ORLANDO

The four-team race for the last three spots in the Eastern Conference Playoffs (will be one team left out) is really heating up. Orlando has one fewer game remaining than Detroit, Brooklyn and Miami, which is a problem considering they are the ones currently on the "outside looking in." All four teams lost on Monday after all four had won on Saturday. So that means no ground was made up by the Magic and they still trail the Heat by a half game with only four left to play. But they have a golden opportunity to make up some ground Wednesday when they host the league-worst Knicks. (The three teams Orlando is chasing also play at home tonight, but against top five teams from the East). We look for Orlando to win big here. New York is off a rare win on Monday, which will make them prone to a letdown. There's no point for the Knicks to keep winning at this point and risk harming their draft position. This is obviously a lot of points to lay with a Magic team that's not normally this large of a favorite. But not only have they won seven straight home games, four of the last five wins have been by double digits and the last one was by 21 over Philadelphia. The Magic also have revenge for a five-point loss at the Garden back in February. Play on ORLANDO

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This is an 8* play on DENVER

Since making an early season statement at Golden State's expense, Denver has not fared well in two subsequent meetings. They lost at home 142-111 in January and then 122-105 out in Oakland last month. The Nuggets 1-2 YTD record against the Warriors is the difference in the standings right now as GSW comes in one game ahead in the race for the #1 seed. Denver suffered a pretty embarrassing home loss to Washington in its last game as they were held to only 90 points total and 28 in the second half. Whether or not that was looking ahead to this game we don't know, but look for a much better performance tonight. Will Denver win? Not sure. But they can definitely stay well within this generous number set by the oddsmakers. Golden State has a poor ATS record overall this season (32-43-1) and especially at home (14-23-1). We're not sure what it is about Tuesday, but the Warriors are 3-19 ATS at home on Tuesday nights the past three seasons. They've lost four of their last eight home games outright. Take the points tonight. Play on DENVER 

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This is a 10* play on VIRGINIA

Virginia is our top side of the entire tournament. This is a team that continues to get less respect than it deserves. It's easy to understand why. Last year saw them suffer the indignity of being the first #1 seed to ever lose to a #16 seed. But that embarrassment aside, the Cavaliers have arguably been the best team in College Basketball the last two years. This tournament has seen them play the same kind of defense we saw in the regular season. The regular season saw UVA hold its opponents to the fewest number of points per game in the country. They allow just 54.8 PPG for the year and just held both Oklahoma and Oregon under that number. Purdue is 3-0 ATS in the tournament and made a record 40 three-pointers through three games. Expect that hot shooting to come to an end Saturday. The Boilermakers shooting in the last two games in particular (Villanova, Tennessee) was quite other-worldly. But Virginia isn't just a step up in class in terms of the kind of defense they'll face, it's a massive step up from both Villanova and Tennessee. The fact Purdue won their last game by 5 and Virginia by only 4 is a little misleading. The Boilers did lead by as much as 18 points, but also needed OT to get Tennessee. Virginia led Oregon virtually wire to wire and didn't allow a field goal over the final 5:43. Purdue is 0-5-1 ATS after allowing 90 or more points the last game. Virginia is 39-19-1 ATS following a straight up win. Play on VIRGINIA 

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This is a 10* play on DETROIT

Portland made us look a little foolish last night by beating Atlanta by 20 points. We totally overestimated the Hawks in that situation, which with the benefit of hindsight seems like a bad idea all around. But after beating Chicago and Atlanta, the Blazers now step up to face Detroit. Unlike those last two Portland opponents, the Pistons are trying to make the playoffs. They're 6th in the East, but the margin for error is still slim. Portland finds itself playing its third road game in four days, without Jusuf Nurkic. Again, Nurkic's absence turned out not to be a big deal against the Bulls and Hawks. But Detroit will make Portland pay. The Pistons have covered five straight and just beat Orlando by 17 in an impressive win two nights ago. The Blazers are 1-6 SU/ATS in the second of back to back road games this year. Not only does Portland not have Nurkic the rest of the season, C.J. McCollum is out of the lineup as well. This team is severely shorthanded, not rested and on the road. That's a lousy combination when facing a better than average opponent. Detroit is 24-13 in home games where they see a dramatic increase on the offensive end.  Play on DETROIT

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This is a 10* play on ATLANTA

The Hawks are a live dog in this situation as Portland is still adjusting to life without Jusuf Nurkic. Perhaps inspired by their injured teammate, the Blazers did win two nights ago by a score of 118-98. But that was against a terrible Chicago team. Nurkic isn't coming back as he suffered a horrible season-ending leg injury in Monday's double overtime victory against Brooklyn. His absence wasn't felt against the Bulls, but will be here in Atlanta. It's been a trying week with a double overtime game, never mind also losing arguably their best player not named Damian Lillard. Nurkic's replacement, Enes Kanter, is a major liability on the defensive end for a team that is already the weakest of the eight Western Conference playoff teams on that end of the floor. The Blazers road record this season is only 18-18 SU, a far cry from their 29-9 SU mark at home. By the way, Atlanta has quietly won three straight games. Two of those wins were against Philly and Utah. They are 7-2 ATS the last nine games overall. Play on ATLANTA

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This is a 10* play on VIRGINIA 

Favorites have dominated this year's NCAA Tournament and there's no better way to illustrate that than to point to the fact there's only one team seeded lower than fifth left. Fourteen of the 16 teams seeded four or higher have gotten to the Sweet 16 and the other two were still favored to win in Round 2. That lone team left seeded lower than 5th would be Oregon, a 12-seed. But not only were they favored to win in the last round, they opened as a slight favorite against Wisconisin in the first round. But it's a bit step up for the Ducks in this round as they draw Virginia. This will undoubtedly be Oregon's toughest test in a run that has seen them win and cover 10 straight games. In the past five NCAA Tournaments, 1 seeds are 14-1 SU in the Sweet 16, covering the spread 12 times. No 12 seed has ever beaten a 1 seed in this round and most of the games haven't even been close. Virginia gives up the fewest points in the country and seems to be over the mental hurdle of losing last year in the first round to MD-Baltimore County, which was the first time ever that 1 seed lost to a 16. Oregon did a nice job defensively against Wisconsin and UC Irvine, but neither was/is a good offensive team. A little known fact about Virginia is they are #2 in the country in offensive efficiency. Play on VIRGINIA 

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This is an 8* play on GONZAGA

Gonzaga has looked quite impressive so far. Unlike the other #1 seeds, they never trailed in the first round. Instead, they laid a severe beatdown on Farleigh Dickinson, 87-49, a game that was never close (53-17 lead at halftime). The Bulldogs also didn't have much problem with Baylor in the Round of 32. They won that game 83-71 and had a 16-point lead at halftime. Thursday, they'll face the team that eliminated them from last year's Sweet 16, that being Florida State. But last year's meeting saw Gonzaga coming in at less than full strength as Killian Tillie couldn't suit up and that had a dramatic effect on the team according to coach Mark Few. This time, the narrative is flipped as Florida State will have to play without Phil Cofer, who is back home for his father's funeral. It's hard enough to beat Gonzaga at full strength, let alone short handed. This Gonzaga team averages 88.6 points per game while shooting 53.2 percent. Both marks are easily tops in the country with the shooting percentage blowing away every other team. The revenge factor can sometimes be overrated, but not here. In the past five NCAA Tournaments, 1 seeds are 14-1 SU in the Sweet 16, covering the spread 12 times. Play on GONZAGA 

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This is an 8* play on DePaul

Both of these teams scored an insane amount of points in their last game. Coastal Carolina dropped a shocking 109 points on West Virginia (in Morgantown!) in an upset as 10.5-point underdogs. DePaul scoring 97 at home vs. Longwood was less shocking when you consider it was the fourth time in the last six games they'd reached at least 90. There's a pair of 100+ point efforts in there as well for the Blue Demons, so they seem like the more consistent scoring bunch in this one and they're laying a much shorter number this time around compared to the line for the Longwood game. DePaul averages more than 80 points per game at home and should have its way with a Coastal Carolina defense that's giving up 76.2 PPG on the road. The oddsmakers probably couldn't make this total high enough, but they apparently "forgot about the spread" as it's too low considering DePaul's perfect 5-0 ATS mark when taking on an opponent that just scored 100 or more in its last game. Play on DEPAUL 

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This is an 8* play on DENVER

Denver is off an embarrassing loss as Indiana as they went down 124-88 in one of their uglier performances all year. Such a lousy effort was ill-timed with them currently locked into a tight battle with Golden State for the #1 seed in the Western Conference. Right now, the Nuggets trail the Warriors by one-half game, so a win tonight would square things up with only nine games left in the regular season. Motivation should not be an issue here at home where the Nuggets are 30-6 SU, 23-13 ATS and winning by an average of almost 11 points per game. They've got revenge on the mind tonight as well due to having lost in Detroit (by 26!) early in February. This season has seen Denver go a perfect 9-0 against the number at home when seeking revenge for a loss where they were a road favorite. Even though they're a likely playoff team in the East, the Pistons have been quite shaky on the road where their record for the season is only 14-23. They've lost five of their last six games away from home, including some real wretched efforts, and the one win was against Phoenix. The Mile High City is one of the LAST places in the league they're likely to turn that around. Play on DENVER 

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This is an 8* play on the CLIPPERS

The Clippers are hot right now. They've won 10 of their last 11 and five straight. Tonight, they'll hope to avoid what happened the last time they were on a five-game win streak and that's lose. That last loss occurred at home against Portland, but tonight they'll be facing much weaker competition in the form of Minnesota. Even though this is a road game, Los Angeles still should roll considering they have a lot to play for and the Timberwolves do not. Minny was officially eliminated from playoff contention last week, an appropriate result for such a disappointing season. They'd lost five in a row before winning at Memphis on Saturday. While the Timberwolves have a 23-11 record at home, we just don't see them getting the cash tonight. Not with trends favoring the road team, such as the Clippers 11-4-1 ATS mark their past 16 trips to Minneapolis. That's part of a larger 20-8-1 ATS run by the road team in the series and the favorite has cashed four of the last five times they've played. Play on LA CLIPPERS

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This is an 8* play on ATLANTA

The Hawks are a perfect 8-0 against the spread this season when they're playing on the road and off a win at home. They just beat Philadelphia, 129-127, at home on Saturday. They pulled the upset (were +7) thanks to Trae Young's game winner in the final seconds. It was Atlanta's second straight win over a playoff team as they also beat Utah (at home) last week. Now they're on the road, but they get a break - some would say a big one - as New Orleans looks to have totally given up on the season. Looking back, the Anthony Davis trade request definitely sunk this team's season, which is too bad as they were a playoff contender before Davis made his feelings known. Now the Pelicans have lost eight of nine, one of the games coming against the Hawks on March 10 when they lost 126-118. Defense has been almost non-existent for New Orleans, who is giving up an incredible number of points lately. Those last nine games have seen them allow: 114, 127, 128, 130, 122, 138, 125, 119 and 113 points. It hasn't helped that in the last two games they've been held to 96 and 90 themselves. Atlanta will want this one more. Play on ATLANTA

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This is a 10* play on HAMPTON

This is a second round matchup in the College Insider Tournament and we believe Hampton will enjoy a significant advantage due to having the home court. The Pirates 1st round CIT game was here at home and they beat St. Francis 81-72 as 8.5-point favorites. Their home record is now 11-3 for the season with them covering the spread in 8 of a possible 11 chances. They sure can score at home as they average 86.4 points per game. They also play much better defense, giving up only 70.8 points per game. Now a member of the Big South, this will be Hampton's second meeting of the year with Charleston Southern, whom they defeated in the regular season by a score of 94-82. That was a home game and the Pirates were favored by four points. We are shocked that they're favored by LESS for this postseason rematch. Charleston Southern barely got by Florida Atlantic in its first round CIT game, winning by only two despite shooting the ball much better. The Buccaneers don't get to the free throw line enough and that will cost them on the road against a high-scoring opponent. Play on HAMPTON

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This is an 8* play on PORTLAND

Portland scratched out a cover for us on Saturday, beating Detroit by five (were laying -4.5). It's a slightly larger spread tonight against Brooklyn, but that should be the case even though the Nets have covered three in a row. One of those games was a loss (at LAC) and then the Nets pulled out two close wins against Sacramento and the Lakers. One of those games (Sacramento), they trailed by 25 in the fourth quarter. Tonight will be their sixth straight road game, a trip which started 12 days ago in Oklahoma City. Portland has won six of seven with three straight wins coming at home. The Blazers are a very good bet at home considering they're 39-19-1 ATS the last 59 times playing here. They've already won in Brooklyn, by double digits, last month. They are 28-9 SU here this season, winning by an average margin of 8.2 points per game and most of those games come against Western Conference teams. Brooklyn being a likely playoff team is simply a byproduct of playing in the weak Eastern Conference. The Nets are 21-4 straight game in games where they are favored, but only 17-32 when they are the underdog. Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 10* play on NORFOLK STATE

Norfolk State pulled a pretty big upset its last time out, upsetting Alabama (one of the NIT's four 1-seeds) 80-79 as 16-point underdogs. They're again getting no respect from the oddsmakers here against Colorado with the winner moving on to face Texas (another OT winner in its last game) two days from now in a quarterfinal matchup. The Spartans were regular season champs in the MEAC with a 14-2 conference record, so they "know how to win" and we think they're getting too many points here. Colorado is a strong home team (14-2 SU record), but it was only a five-point win over Dayton here in Boulder in 1st round NIT action. The Buffaloes are enjoying a strong finish to the year, but Norfolk State has not lost a game by double digits since before Christmas. They are 8-5 ATS as an underdog this season. Too many points for Colorado to lay here as the only time they were a double digit favorite this month (-10 vs. Cal) was one of two games they failed to cover the spread. Play on NORFOLK STATE

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This is a 10* play on NORTH CAROLINA

Three ACC teams received #1 seeds in this Tournament and all three surprisingly struggled with their first round opponent. In the case of North Carolina, they were actually down 38-33 to Iona at halftime. But the Tar Heels exploded in the second half, scoring 55 points and won easily. Meanwhile, Washington may not have been able to play any better than it did against Utah State. They won 78-61, leading virtually the whole way. But we don't expect the Huskies to play that well again and UNC should certainly start better than they did Friday night. For what it's worth, the Tar Heels are 8-1 against the spread away from Chapel Hill, if coming off an Under. The Iona game did stay Under a very high total. Washington is not a good offensive team. Believe it or not, they have the lowest offensive efficiency of any team left in the tournament - with the exception of UC Irvine. Twice, Oregon held UW below 50 points late in the year, one of those in the Pac 12 Tournament Final. North Carolina is an even better defensive team that Oregon. Obviously, there's no comparison on offense as the Tar Heels average 86.1 points per game. Play on NORTH CAROLINA

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This is a 10* play on PORTLAND

Portland seems too short of a favorite here as they really are a much better team than Detroit. Based on the way they are priced though, you'd think the oddsmakers were of the opinion that these teams were relative equals. That is certainly not the case however as the Blazers play in the tougher conference, have a better overall record and vastly superior point differential. Even with an 8-3 March, the Pistons have still been outscored on the year and recent efforts on the road leave a lot to be desired. They did just win in Phoenix on Thursday, but before that lost in Cleveland and were also held to 75 and 74 points in key losses at Brooklyn and Miami. Detroit is only 14-21 SU on the road and lacks the offensive firepower to keep up with a Portland team that averages 117.1 points per game in its home arena. The Blazers have a home record of 27-9 SU and are coming off back to back eight point wins over Indiana and Dallas. They've won five of six overall with every win coming by at least eight points. The final score of Detroit's last game is a little misleading (they won by 20 points) as they were actually down at halftime. Play on PORTLAND

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This is an 8* play on PURDUE

It was not pretty, but defending champion Villanova was able to hold on to defeat St. Mary's 61-57 in their 1st round game Thursday. A little later on in the day, Purdue had a much easier time against Old Dominion, winning that game by double digits. Both games fell right near the number, but for us, the Boilermakers were a winner. We'll go with the Boilers yet again tonight as they are the superior side and 'Nova is still getting too much respect based on the fact they are the defending National Champs. But this year's team isn't nearly as good despite rolling to another Big East title. Purdue tied Michigan State for the best regular season record in the Big 10, which is something that seems to go unnnoticed. They just held ODU to 26.9% shooting and 49 points. While it obviously won't be as easy against Villanova, the Boilermakers are the much better defensive team here. In terms of defensive efficiency, there are only three teams left in the field of 32 with a worse rating than the Wildcats. Purdue enjoying a double digit advantage for almost the entire game against ODU is even more impressive when you consider they played without their starting point guard (he's a "full go" for tonight) and leading scorer Carsen Edwards shot just 7 of 23. We like Purdue a lot here. Play on PURDUE

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This is a 10* play on VCU

VCU is a team to keep an eye on in this Tournament due to the defense they play. They're also probably underseeded. The Rams were regular season champs in the A-10, but were bounced early in their conference tournament by an upset-minded Rhode Island team. We look for VCU to come out a make a statement here in their first round NCAA Tournament game. UCF also didn't last long in the American Tournament as they ran into the host school, Memphis, and got blown out 79-55. The Golden Knights actually enter the Tourney on a two-game losing streak as they got beat by Temple in the regular season finale. Both games they shot poorly. VCU holds its opponents to a 38.4 FG%. We know Marcus Evans hurt his knee in the loss to Rhode Island, but this is a deep team as 11 players regularly get on the court. VCU is 15-4 ATS its last 19 NCAA Tournament games. Play on VCU 

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This is a 10* play on IOWA

Cincinnati is fresh off winning the American Tournament, a run they capped by beating top seeded Houston. But even so, the Bearcats haven't been a great team to bet on recently. They're just 2-9 ATS the last 11 games. Now you can say the same for their 1st round opponent, Iowa. The Hawkeyes are 1-9 ATS their previous 10 games. They were blown out by Michigan in the Big 10 Tournament. But Iowa seems to be a good value taking points Friday. They are clearly the superior offensive team here, ranking top 15 in the country in efficiency. They average 78.3 points per game. What we saw against Michigan isn't indicative of the season as a whole. Cincy seems a little disappointed over their seeding (they should be!) and that could affect them mentally here. The Hawkeyes are 9-1 ATS their previous 10 neutral site games. Play on IOWA

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This is an 8* play on PURDUE

Underdogs will get a lot of love the next two days. Several of them will even pull outright upsets. But don't look for that to happen in this game. Purdue should be plenty angry following an early exit in the Big 10 Tournament and should take its frustrations out on an overmatched Old Dominion team. The Monarchs had a good season, winning 26 games, but they struggle to score. In five games played in March, ODU is averaging only 56.4 points per game. That won't cut it here. Not with Purdue averaging 76.2 PPG on the season. Old Dominion's defense can only take them so far against a superior opponent that tied for the Big 10 regular season title. Most don't realize that Purdue finished tied with Michigan State at 16-4 SU in conference play. The Boilermakers are 23-11 ATS their last 34 games. Old Dominion is 0-6 ATS their last six games following an ATS win (they covered in the Conference USA Champ Game) and 0-4 ATS its last four games vs. the Big 10. Play on PURDUE

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This is a 10* play on SETON HALL

Wofford figures to be a pretty popular choice in this game, because everyone likes the "little guy" this time of year. But we like the other side here. Wofford is not the hunter, but rather than hunted in this situation with Seton Hall as the Terriers are both the higher seed and favored. But it's a big step up from the usual competition they face in the Southern Conference. Seton Hall has wins over the likes of Maryland and Kentucky in the non-conference this year. They also beat Villanova and Marquette (twice) late in the regular season, then came within an eyelash of beating Nova again in the Big East Championship Game (lost by 2). All of those teams are seeded higher than Wofford is. Wofford has won 20 in a row, but has also never won a NCAA Tournament game. Seton Hall has covered the spread in five straight games with the only SU loss coming by two points. So they're hot too. The defense that Seton Hall plays is not something Wofford saw often in the SoCon. Also, the Pirates are a perfect 7-0 ATS in neutral site games this season (6-1 straight up). Play on SETON HALL

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This is a 10* play on DENVER

Washington was going to be in a tough spot here, regardless of last night's outcome. But losing 126-120 in overtime at Chicago was probably Wednesday's least ideal outcome. After Bradley Beal tied the game in the closing seconds of regulation, the Wizards went 0 for 6 from the field in OT. It was their third loss in four games and this one really stung considering how bad the Bulls are and that they were without two of their top players. Now Washington has to deal with Denver, one of the top teams in the league. Sure this one is at home, but the Wizards are just 2-5 ATS their last seven games vs. teams with winning records. The Nuggets come in having won four in a row. They just took care of the Celtics, in Boston, and now trail Golden State by just one-half game for first place in the Western Conference. They've also been off for the last two days. This is probably one of the worst possible opponents for the Nuggets tonight, home or not. Play on DENVER

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This is an 8* play on YALE

Yale, champions of the Ivy League, are a solid play here against an LSU team that has lost has its head coach. Will Wade got himself caught up in the NCAA scandal and the Tigers have to go to the Tournament without him. This is a team that overachieved this year. How much credit goes to Wade can be up for debate, but certainly he deserves a large portion. Without Wade, it was an earlier than expected exit for LSU in the SEC Tournament as they got upset by Florida. The Tigers weren't a particularly great defensive team anyway and they give up a lot of offensive rebounds. Yale has scored at least 90 point in six different games this season, including Sunday's Ivy League Final vs. Harvard. I had the Bulldogs in that game and came away quite impressed as six players scored in double figures. Yale is 3-0 straight up and against the spread at neutral sites this year, winning by an average of 11.1 points per game. They can stick with LSU here. Play on YALE

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This is an 8* play on WASHINGTON

The Wizards are still technically alive in the Eastern Conference playoff race, but on life support. To remain viable, they must win tonight in Chicago. Fortunately, the task should not be that difficult against a Bulls team that is just 8-27 at home and getting consistently hammered. The Bulls did win their last time out, beating Phoenix 116-101 on the road. But before that it was five straight losses, three of them by 16 or more points. The last time these teams played was here in the Windy City and Washington won 134-125 with a similar pointspread. It's a but suspicious as to why the oddsmakers wouldn't have adjusted. At least a little bit. Since that time, the Wizards are just 1-6 on the road and they just lost 116-95 at home to Utah. But they'd also gone 7-1 ATS in the eight games prior to getting blown out by the Jazz. This is a game the Wizards should win with ease. Play on WASHINGTON

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This is an 8* play on ORLANDO

Orlando needs to take advantage here of a New Orleans team that has basically thrown in the towel on the 2018-19 season. Anthony Davis has been relegated to limited minutes in the wake of his highly publicized trade demand and the team's fortunes essentially sunk right after those demands were made. The Pelicans are officially eliminated from playoff contention in the Western Conference as they've fallen to 11 games below .500. Defense is non-existent here with them allowing 116.1 points per game, which is tied for the most in the West. They've allowed 122 or more points in six straight games. Orlando has held its last two opponents under 100 and its last four all to 105 or less. This will be the Magic's third straight game at home vs. a non-playoff team. They've won the previous two by double digits. The Magic are 7-2 ATS their last nine home games. Play on ORLANDO

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This is an 8* play on HARVARD 

Harvard came up short in the Ivy League Championship Game, falling to rival Yale. But I see them having an easier time here in the NIT vs. Georgetown, who is just 5-16 ATS its last 21 times hosting a non-conference opponent. The Hoyas' home court and name recognition are what has them favored here, but really they shouldn't be laying more than a couple points to a Harvard side that is every bit their equal. G'town was one and done in the Big East Tournament, losing to Seton Hall 73-57. They also got smoked late in the regular season by DePaul, 101-69. The Hoyas can score (79.9 PPG), but they also give up too many points (78.3 PPG). Harvard should make enough shots to at least stay within the number here and they'd actually won outright the previous four times as a dog before the loss to Yale Sunday (where they led at halftime). Play on HARVARD

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This is an 8* play on SACRAMENTO

One of these teams (Brooklyn) will likely make the playoffs while the other (Sacramento) will not. But a pretty strong case can be made that the non-playoff team is better and the respective designations are simply a byproduct of the two uneven conferences. Sacramento, despite having little shot at making the playoffs, is in a good spot here. They've covered three straight, including a 129-102 win over the Bulls on Sunday. Shockingly, the Kings have been an outstanding bet when favored this season, going 15-4 ATS (17-2 SU). They are favored here to beat a Brooklyn team that seems to have hit a wall. A seven-game road trip has opened with three straight losses as the Nets have fallen to 11-16 SU vs. the Western Conference. Like Sacramento, the Nets typically take care of business when they're favored. They've been favored 24 times and won 20 of those games. But as an underdog, they're just 16-32 SU. With it being a short number, we'll lay it!  Play on SACRAMENTO

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This is an 8* play on UTAH

Utah comes to Washington D.C. in search of a win and should get it at the expense of the struggling Wizards. The Jazz have won and covered each of their last three games. While all three games were against lesser opponents, they did win by double digits every time. All three wins were by at least 16 points, including a wire to wire beatdown of Brooklyn on Saturday. Washington has actually gone 7-1 ATS its last eight games and just put up 135 points in a surprising performance against Memphis two days ago. But it's been a long time since they were able to beat the Jazz. The last five meetings have all gone Utah's way and this one will too, by a rather comfortable margin, considering how poor the Wizards are defensively. Utah has covered 7 of its last 9 games vs. teams with losing records. Play on UTAH

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This is a 10* play on HOUSTON

Houston blew the cover late on Saturday, letting a double digit lead slip away against Memphis. They had kept the Tigers in check the entire game, never allowing them to get above 25% from the field! But the Cougars had their own scoreless stretch, for about four minutes, as they missed 10 straight shots and that let Memphis pull within three. As upset as we are about Houston not covering yesterday (we had them), it was still an impressive win when you consider the defensive performance and that it was a true road game (tournament is being played in Memphis). Memphis had lost only twice at home all season. Today they face a Cincinnati team that also won by three Saturday. The Bearcats beat Wichita State, coming back from a halftime deficit. Houston beat Cincy twice in the regular season, winning by 7 and 16. They are the better team here and unlike yesterday won't have to deal with a hostile crowd and it's a shorter number. The Bearcats have covered the spread just one time in their last 10 games. Play on HOUSTON

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This is a 10* play on CHARLOTTE

Miami really let one slip away Friday night. They were facing Milwaukee and up by 20 points at halftime. This was at home too. The Bucks were 1-100 SU all-time when trailing by 20+ at the half, including 0-77 on the road. The Heat were 51-0 SU all-time when leading by that much at half, here at home. Guess what? They lost 113-98, becoming the 1st team in league history to be up 20 at the half and still lose by 15. It's going to be very difficult to get over that loss. Now in comes Charlotte, who directly gained from the Heat's pain. Also on Friday, Charlotte beat Washington to pull within one game of Miami, who holds the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. The Hornets have some revenge on the mind Sunday as they just lost at home to Miami, 91-84, on March 6th. It's important to note that the Heat actually play worse at home (where they have a losing SU record) as opposed to the road. They are just 4-9 ATS the last 13 games at home. They are 2-9 ATS their previous 11 division games. We say to take the points here. Play on CHARLOTTE

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This is an 8* play on YALE

One of the oldest rivalries in collegiate sports is renewed here and the stakes couldn't be much higher. Yale and Harvard will play Sunday with the winner moving on to represent the Ivy League in the NCAA Tournament. The two teams tied for the regular season title, both finishing 10-4 SU in conference play, but Yale was three games better overall. However, the key was Harvard winning both of the regular season games. That gave them the #1 seed entering this Tournament. It also gives Yale double revenge and note they are the betting favorite Sunday. Yale beat Princeton Sunday in the semifinals by a score of 83-77. They led by 12 at halftime and won easily. Harvard had a little more trouble against Penn, even though their final margin of victory (8) was actually larger than Yale's. The Crimson only led by two at halftime though. We think the oddsmakers are making it pretty clear that they think Yale is the better team here and we're inclined to agree. Harvard did sweep the season series, but they also had three OT wins in Ivy League play. Yale is basically +8.0 PPG vs. the Ivy League while Harvard is less than +2.0. Play on YALE

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This is an 8* play on MEMPHIS

Memphis is catching points and catching Washington in the second game of a back to back tonight. That's a combo that works in their favor. The Wizards lost last night, falling 116-110 to Charlotte right here at home. Bradley Beal scored 40 points, but the Wizards were down 14 at the end of the first quarter and 17 heading into the fourth. Memphis is rested as they've been off for two days and likely motivated considering they were torched for 132 points by Atlanta of all teams in their last game. Going into that game, the Grizzlies were #1 in the league in scoring defense. It was the most points they allowed in any game all year. A bounce back seems likely given the way they had been playing. Memphis is 4-2 SU/5-1 ATS this month with wins over both Portland and Utah. Play on MEMPHIS

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