This is an 8* play on DETROIT

This will be the Pistons first game since blowing a 25-point lead to the Clippers over the weekend. Playing at home, they should come out motivated. It's a tough opponent they're hosting as Denver has won six straight. They're 37-15 SU and tied with Golden State for the best record in the Western Conference. But the Nuggets may very well be road weary as this will be the fourth time playing away from home in the last seven games with two more away dates to come this week. They barely escaped Minnesota with a one-point win on Saturday. The fact that they've been so successful in spite of so many injuries is what's particularly shocking.  Two starters are still out for tonight. Detroit badly needs a win to stay in the playoff hunt as they are two games back of the 8th spot right now. Denver is just 14-11 SU on the road (23-4 SU at home) and has been outscored in those games. Play on DETROIT

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This is a 10* play on Northern Kentucky

I just can't see Northern Kentucky losing back to back games. The Horizon League leaders were upset by IUPUI two nights ago, losing 83-77 as three-point road favorites. In terms of points allowed, it was the most the Norse have given up in any conference game to date. Usually, they are the ones shooting the lights out and it doesn't matter if they're home or away. In their last 3 road games, Northern Kentucky has scored 95, 91 and 82 points. On Sunday afternoon they visit an Illinois-Chicago team that they already defeated earlier in the year. That was a relatively easy win for the Norse as they prevailed 73-58 as 8.5-point favorites. They led by 16 at halftime. They're 5-0 SU vs. UIC since joining the Horizon League and in four of the games, UIC has shot the ball poorly. The Flames were the beneficiary of some poor shooting by the opponent Friday when they beat Wright State 67-53. Wright State finished with a 28.1 FG%. UIC won't be able to hold Northern Kentucky to anywhere close to that number. Play on NORTHERN KENTUCKY

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This is a 10* play on BOSTON

Oklahoma City bring a seven-game win streak into Boston Sunday, which is a season-best. They are now just 3.5 games back of Denver & Golden State in the Western Conference. Paul George is playing at a MVP-level right now as he scored 43 points in the Thunder's last win, which came Friday night in Miami by score of 118-102. But I still believe Boston to be the better team in this matchup. The Celtics have won eight of nine, the only loss coming by four points to Golden State. There's now some manufactured "drama" surrounding Kyrie Irving's future with the team, but the present still looks very bright. The Celtics may only be in fifth place in the Eastern Conference, but they have a better point differential than the Thunder. I expect them to go on a big second half run. While OKC is 7-2 ATS as an underdog this year, Boston deserves to be favored by more than the "token" three points in this matchup. They are 36-17 ATS their last 53 home games. Play on BOSTON

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This is an 8* play on SACRAMENTO

This is a prime letdown spot for Philly after they beat the Warriors Thursday night. The Kings are not as bad as you, or anyone else, thinks. Thanks to some of the best three-point shooting in the league, they have been able to stay above .500 past the mid-season mark for the 1st time in forever. Something else noteworthy here is that the Sixers are a below average team on the road. This is the end of a pretty tough trip for them, one that has seen them play Denver, the Lakers and Golden State. They've managed to win the last two, but their tank may be near empty tonight. The Kings scored 135 points in their last game and anything close to that tonight will make them hard to beat. Play on SACRAMENTO

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This is an 8* play on San Diego State

San Jose State is a very bad basketball team. The Spartans have lost have lost 11 in a row to fall to 3-17 on the year. Their most recent loss was one of the uglier ones as they went down by 30 at the hands of Utah State. With the exception of a two-point home loss to Air Force last Saturday, eight of the last nine losses have been by 13 points or more and in conference play they're getting outscored by 23 PPG. In comes San Diego State tonight and the Aztecs have covered four in a row, including two straight double digit wins. Those two wins both came at home. While I understand that the Mountain West road has not been that kind, the fact is that San Jose State is one of the worst teams in the entire country. The Aztecs have never lost a game in which they have been favored by 12.5 or more points on the road and aren't about to lose here. I think they win quite comfortably. Play on SAN DIEGO STATE

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This is a 10* play on NEBRASKA

Nebraska is in a free fall right now as they've lost four in a row, the last three all coming as favorites. The last two losses both occurred in Lincoln and now the Cornhuskers must hit the road to face an Illinois team that is also struggling, but better than its record. Laying points on the road might not seem like the best option right now with Nebraska, especially seeing as they are now without second leading scorer Isaac Copeland, Jr. But they are the better team in this matchup and should win pretty easily. While the Cornhuskers are clearly underperforming as of late, Illinois hasn't been favored a single time in Big 10 play. Nebraska already beat the Illini earlier in the year, 75-60, as a 13-point home favorite. Looking at the line for today's rematch, there's definitely some value on the road favorite. With Copeland out, look for leading scorer James Palmer Jr to pick up the slack as he's coming off a bad game anyway and should rebound in a positive way here. Defensively, Nebraska only gives up 62.5 PPG. Play on NEBRASKA 

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This is an 8* play on BALL STATE

These MAC rivals have something in common headed into Saturday. They both lost to Buffalo in their last game. In the case of Kent State, the loss occurred last Friday and at home. It was an 88-79 final where the Golden Flashes just missed out on the cover. Ball State had to go to Buffalo on Tuesday and they were blown out 83-59. Even worse is that the Cardinals lost a player, Trey Moses, to a knee injury in that game. Moses is their 4th leading scorer, but even without him, I believe Ball State comes up big in this spot. They still have three double digit scorers, mind you. Kent State was supposed to play a game Thursday (at Western Michigan), but that had to be postponed due to the winter weather. Perhaps that throws off their rhythm? Something that is shocking is the Golden Flashes have beaten the Cardinals 16 of the last 17 times they have met. Ball State has also lost its last three home games. Yet BSU is the one favored in the spot, even though Kent State comes in with a 15-5 SU record. Something is fishy in the water here, so to speak. Ball State won't shoot as poorly here as they did vs. Buffalo (went 2 of 23 on 3PA). Play on BALL STATE

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This is an 8* Play on GREEN BAY

The Horizon League's two Wisconsin schools renew acquaintances Friday night with Green Bay hosting Milwaukee. The two "Cheese State" rivals already met once this year and it was Green Bay winning on the road, 92-82, back in late December. The Phoenix were slight favorites in that contest. But since winning and covering at Milwaukee's expense, they've gone just 1-7 at the betting window. Because of that, this line opened too low. Sharp money quickly pounced on the home side and I was right with it as there is no doubt in my mind that Green Bay will score plenty tonight. They already average an impressive 92.2 points at home. They give up their fair share too, but Milwaukee happens to come into tonight in poor offensive form, having scored just 54 and 60 points in its last two games. The Panthers are on the road for a third straight time here and that could spell trouble as they simply do not shoot the ball very well away from home. Play on GREEN BAY

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This is an 8* play on the BUCKS

The two top teams in the Eastern Conference square off up in Canada in this TNT matchup. The last time the Raptors and Bucks met, the former was able to win 123-116 in Milwaukee despite not having Kyle Lowry. But the Bucks were also in the second night of a back to back there and probably overconfident after scoring 144 points the previous night. Though their records are almost identical, all other number indicate the Bucks have been the superior team compared to the Raptors this year. Milwaukee has the best point differential in the sport right now at +10.0 PPG. Tuesday's win in Detroit kept them perfect this year when coming off a SU loss (13-0). The Bucks won the first two times they faced the Raptors, one of those wins coming in Toronto. The Bucks are also 4-2 straight up and against the spread as an underdog. Play on MILWAUKEE 

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This is a 10* play on DETROIT

Last Friday, Dallas beat Detroit 106-101. That game was at home though where the Mavs own an 18-7 straight up record. This time, the game is in the Motor City. The Mavs did win on the road last night, but that was against the team with the fewest wins in the league (New York). Their road record is still an ugly 5-20 SU and playing this rematch in the second night of a back to back does them no favors. The Pistons have played just one time since losing to Dallas and it was here at home, Tuesday, versus the Bucks. They lost by 10. But Milwaukee is one of the best teams in the league. Dallas has played eight back to backs this season. They are 1-7 straight up in the second game. Play on DETROIT

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This is a 10* play on TULANE

These are two bad yet seemingly evenly matched teams. Therefore, I'm not sure why anyone would want to lay the points with East Carolina. The Pirates have lost five in a row coming into tonight, the last four all by double digits. Last week, they lost by 44 at Houston and by 20 here in Greenville to USF. They didn't even score 60 points in either game. So, again, they do not make for good chalk. Tulane is winless in conference play and has lost nine in a row. But this might just be the Green Wave's best shot at achieving a victory in the American ... until hosting ECU at the end of the regular season. But I wouldn't want to be caught laying points with Tulane either when that time comes. Both teams are giving up 80.4 PPG in conference action. Taking the points here simply makes sense. The underdog has covered 9 of the past 10 times these two have faced off. Play on TULANE 

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This is an 8* Play on TEXAS A&M

LSU has won nine in a row, but the win streak was very much on life support Saturday at Missouri. I didn't even discuss this in the Missouri-Auburn writeup, but LSU trailed by 14 with just over two minutes to go in regulation. They ended up forcing overtime and winning 86-80. A lot has certainly gone the Tigers way of late, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see their win streak come to a halt tonight in College Station. So, four our second SEC play of the day, we'll be taking Texas A&M plus the points. The Aggies have not had a good go of it in conference play. But stepping outside the SEC brought them success on Saturday as they picked up a quality non-conference win over Kansas State in the Big 12 vs. SEC Challenge. I think the way that the Aggies played there will carry over into tonight. Look for them to take advantage of the fact LSU is giving up 77.1 points per game on the road. Using a 2-3 zone, A&M turned in one of its best defensive efforts of the season against Kansas State. That can be duplicated here. Play on TEXAS A&M 

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This is an 8* play on AUBURN

Auburn is a good team that has recently hit a rough patch. A three-game losing streak has the Tigers out of the Top 25 for the first time all season. This is a team that twice got as high as #8 in polls. Bruce Pearl's team was the betting favorite in all three of its recent losses, so even though the spread is higher than you might think tonight, it's a good "buy low" spot as they welcome in an outclassed Missouri squad. Mizzou has lost five of six and hasn't been favored to beat anyone in SEC play. Two of the three games Auburn just lost were by decided by three points or less. Also, the last two were on the road. The only time the Tigers have been beaten at home this year was by two by Kentucky. Otherwise, they're 9-0 on campus and their scoring differential here (+26.6 points per game) is quite impressive. They average 90.1 PPG at home and anything approaching that number will be make it difficult, if not impossible, for Missouri to stay within the spread. Play on AUBURN

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This is an 8* play on Wake Forest

Louisville has been trending in a positive direction of late as one of the hotter teams in the country. Perhaps the reason for them being "under the radar" for a good portion of the season is the disgraceful way the Rick Pitino era ended. But the Cardinals will certainly have the attention of their opponent (Wake Forest) tonight. The Demon Deacons opened as double digit home underdogs for this contest and I like them plus the points. Not only is Louisville in a lookahead to a weekend home game vs. North Carolina, but they have a losing record (3-4) away from home this year. Wake hasn't had much go its way in ACC play (1-6 straight up record), however, that one win was an upset over North Carolina State here in Winston-Salem. After being blown out by both Virginia Tech and Virginia in a tough pair of road games, the Demon Deacons only lost by four in their last game, which was at home. That despite leading scorer Brandon Childress scoring only eight points.  The only other time Wake lost three straight times this year, the upset of NC State followed. Play on WAKE FOREST

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This is a 10* play on UNLV

Nevada is expected to waltz to another regular season crown in the Mountain West, but road games have not been in a "walk in the park" for the Wolf Pack by any means. Their only loss was a road game and it was a very ugly 27-point loss at New Mexico. They have won two games on the road since then, but one of them was by just a single point at Fresno State. They regained their "mojo" last week with a couple of easy home games against Air Force and Colorado State, the latter coming by 40 points. But coming off such an easy win can be just as much a curse as it is a blessing and in this case, Nevada wil have to guard against overconfidence as it gets set to face rival UNLV. The Rebels do come in a tad bit wounded after losing by 17 at San Diego State over the weekend. But they're 8-3 in Vegas and give up only 63.4 points per game here. Play on UNLV 

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This is an 8* play on CHICAGO

Brooklyn just lost a hard-fought game last night in Boston, by a score of 112-104. So having to turn around in 24 hours and lay an uncharacteristic amount of points seems dicey. Yes, they're playing the Bulls, a team that has won just one time in 2019. But Chicago's last two losses were by three and five points. The Nets had won six straight going into last night, but it's still a pretty rare sight to see them favored by so many points. They have recently covered similar spots against the likes of Atlanta and New York. But neither of those games were played in the second night of a back to back. The Nets are just 2-8 straight up and against the spread when unrested this season. Chicago comes in with a winning ATS record when on a losing streak of three or more games. They'll cover here. Play on CHICAGO

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This is an 8* play on DETROIT

Milwaukee has the best straight up record in the league (35-13) right now and a big reason for that is they have yet to drop back to back games this season. They are off a loss here. Sunday, Oklahoma City beat them, 118-112. For the record, the Bucks were a small underdog in that game. Tonight, they are pretty sizable favorite in Detroit. While it is pretty remarkable how well they have performed off a loss this season, going 12-0 SU (10-2 ATS) and winning by an average of 14.8 points per game, I think the potential for a "slip up" is present tonight. Detroit has been off for three days since concluding a road trip with a narrow defeat in Dallas. Tonight is a triple revenge spot as the Pistons look to avoid a season sweep at the hands of their division rival. The Pistons have played just two games on three or more days rest. They won both. Play on DETROIT 

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This is a 10* play on ORLANDO

As touched upon in the writeup for the Milwaukee-Detroit game, Oklahoma City picked up a big win Sunday at the Bucks expense. It was the fifth straight win for the Thunder overall. Paul George is playing at a MVP level right now and the entire team is shooting well from three-point land. But tonight's game in Orlando is trickier than it looks. The Magic may not be doing much winning of late, but they're not getting blown out either. Their last six losses have been by a total of 30 points. That's an average of just five points per game. Sunday found them leading the Rockets (on the road) by as much as 16 points before they wilted late and lost 103-98. Taking out games where they are favored at home, Orlando has a pretty good ATS record this year. Three of Oklahoma City's wins during the current win streak have been by six points or less. I can see them slipping up here. Play on ORLANDO

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This is an 8* Play on BALL STATE

Buffalo is the class of the MAC, but has seemed a lot more vulnerable of late. The Bulls even lost a game last week, as 9.5-pt favorites, at Northern Illinois. That was followed by a closer than expected call at Kent State on Saturday where they didn't pull away until the final minutes (just did cover the 8.5-point spread). Tonight, Nate Oats' team returns home to take on Ball State. The Cardinals are looking to bounce back from two upset losses of their own last week, the first to Miami and the second to Ohio. Overall, they have dropped five out of their last six games. But they'll be plenty motivated tonight, knowing this is just the second time all year that they have been double digit dogs. The first was at Purdue and they covered that game. Four of BSU's last five losses have come as favorites, so they've definitely been underperforming of late. But coming in as big dogs should suit them well Tuesday as they're 17-10 ATS the last 27 times they've taken points. Play on BALL STATE

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This is a 10* play on the PACERS

Indiana's first game without Victor Oladipo resulted in a loss (at Memphis), but it's not as if the Pacers weren't competitive Saturday night. They lost by only three on the road despite getting out to a really slow start. Now staying competitive with Golden State is obviously a much more difficult proposition. Obviously, the Pacers cannot afford a similar slow start to the one we saw in Memphis. Lucky for them, this game takes place at Bankers Life Fieldhouse where they are 18-6 this season. Often times, we see the oddsmakers and public overreact to an injury. Losing Oladipo is a tough break, but had he been in the lineup tonight, my guess is the spread would be a lot closer to a pick 'em. Not sure Oladipo is worth THAT much to the spread. Indiana is 7-5 SU with him out of the lineup this season. The Warriors are off a big-time road win in Boston and may not give this game their full attention. It's also at the end of a five-game road swing. The Pacers are a perfect 3-0 ATS as home dogs this season. Play on INDIANA

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This is a 10* play on NOTRE DAME

Duke is #2 in the polls and figures to stay in that position when the new rankings come out later today. Obviously, they are among the most talented teams in the country. But the Blue Devils have also failed to cover four of their last five games. Despite still winning by 13, Saturday was a somewhat ugly win over Georgia Tech. Duke trailed at halftime of that game and shot just 2 of 23 from three-point range. Fortunately for them, Georgia Tech simply isn't a very good team and probably wasn't capable of winning at Cameron Indoor Stadium. But anywhere near a similar shooting night from Duke would likely cost them here in South Bend. Notre Dame has struggled for much of 2019 as they're just 1-7 ATS their last eight games and come into Monday riding a four-game SU losing streak. They are 0-4 straight up and against the spread the last four meetings with Duke. But Mike Brey's teams have also been strong at home and you almost never see them getting as many points as they are tonight. They did just get blown out by Virginia here on Saturday, but I expect a better performance tonight. Duke's three-point shooting woes are very real and will make it difficult to cover large spreads such as this one the road. Play on NOTRE DAME

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This is an 8* play on the KNICKS

The Knicks are having a tough go of it this season, but I used them (plus the points) earlier in the week and came out ahead. That was against Houston, their last home game, and they lost by six while getting eight. That ATS win was followed up by a less than stellar performance in Brooklyn where they did NOT cover, losing by 10 as 8.5-point dogs. The losing streak has now hit eight in the Big Apple and the Knicks are 2-21 SU their last 23 games. The good news is the last time they were on an eight-game losing streak, they won, beating the Lakers. Tonight, they host Miami, who just failed to cover as a road favorite in Cleveland Friday. Before that, the Heat had lost four of five. Don't like them in the road favorite role at all. I wasn't afraid to take the points with the Cavs against the Heat and its the same story here. The home team has won the last five times these teams have played. Play on NEW YORK

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This is a 10* play on the MAVS

So Toronto comes into this game off two straight losses on the road. Both were close games. They lost to Indiana by four in what turned out to be Victor Oladipo's final game of the season. They lost to Houston by two, but never actually led in the game. Facing Dallas, the expectation will be for the Raptors to win. But Dallas has proven to be a tough out lately and all season for that matter when they're at home. The Mavericks' home record is now 18-6 SU following two straight wins (and covers) against the Clippers and Pistons. Typically, you'll see the Mavs play much better defense at home than on the road. That's definitely been the case the last two games. Luka Doncic is great and should be the Rookie of the Year. Hopefully, Dennis Smith Jr can find peace playing alongside Doncic. Dallas is 17-7 ATS at home, including a phenomenal 8-1 as an underdog. Play on DALLAS 

AAA

This is a 10* play on Iowa

Though they're playing at home, I do not believe Minnesota should be the favorite today vs. Iowa. Sure, the Golden Gophers turned in a game effort in losing to Michigan 59-57 Tuesday. But they're not the better team here. Iowa is also off a painful setback, theirs at home to Michigan State, but the Hawkeyes had also won and covered five straight before that. While they may have some issues at the defensive end, Iowa is a top 10 team nationally in offensive efficiency. They average 82.0 points per game. Minnesota is just 7-17 ATS its last 24 Big 10 games and 1-6 ATS its last seven home games. Iowa did lead Michigan State at halftime Thursday, despite a poor overall shooting night and not getting to the free throw with the regularity they're used to. The Hawkeyes lead the country in FT% and FT attempts, but only got there eight times vs. the Spartans. Minnesota losing on a buzzer-beater to Michigan was the more painful loss than Iowa falling to MSU and will be more difficult to get over. Play on IOWA

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This is a 10* play on VA TECH

So Syracuse is playing really well of late. As for Virginia Tech, not so much. Thursday's 73-53 blowout of Miami marked the seventh win in the last eight games for the Orange. Curiously, their one loss was to Georgia Tech - at home. During the streak, they were able to go to Duke and win - as 17-point underdogs. So I can see how they'd be very tempting as an underdog here. Virginia Tech hasn't covered any of their last five games and has been blown out in two of the games. But but both blowouts were on the road and they came against Virginia and North Carolina, two of the very best teams in the country. Syracuse might be hot, but they aren't Virginia or North Carolina. This game is also in Blacksburg. The Hokies are 10-0 at home, winning by an average margin of 28.7 points per game. They are simply a much better team here. Syracuse won't shoot as well tonight as they did vs. Miami. I guarantee it! Play on VIRGINIA TECH 

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This is an 8* play on AKRON

Northern Illinois is coming off its biggest win of the season, a 77-75 upset of Buffalo. That was a real shocker with the Huskies coming out ahead as 9.5-point underdogs. So it would only be logical for there to be a bit of a letdown their next time out. Their next time out is today at an Akron team that plays remarkably good defense, especially at home. The Zips are only giving up 62.7 points per game for the year and that number drops to 56.3 at home, which explains why they are 9-1 at  James A. Rhodes Arena. There's some revenge in the air tonight as well. The Zips lost out in DeKalb 73-56 earlier in the month. They were one-point favorites over Northern Illinois in that game. When you compare lines for the two games, certainly there would appear to be some value on the home team in this rematch. Yes, you must factor in the fact Akron was blown out on the road the first time. But they aren't about to shoot only 34% from the field again nor will they allow NIU to shoot almost 56% either. Play on AKRON

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This is an 8* on PENN ST

Penn State is catching Rutgers off an upset. While it might seem logical to tie the Scarlet Knights' upset over Nebraska to the return of leading scorer Eugene Omoruyi, he had only 9 points on 2 of 9 shooting. Rather, it was a career night from Montez Mathis, who went for 20 points and nine rebounds. Rutgers came from behind to beat the Cornhuskers, 76-69 as 8.5-point underdogs. But that was at home. The last time this team was off an upset, they went out and lost their next game by 18 (at Minnesota) on the road. It's the exact same scenario here and I expect an identical result. Penn State may have lost its last six games, but they've played a lot better than their record suggests. All six Big 10 losses have come to likely NCAA Tournament teams and the last one was the most painful as they blew an 11-point second half lead and lost by 1 at Minnesota. It was the second straight loss where the Nittany Lions were leading at the half. They've had a week off to recover from that Minnesota loss, however. That's one advantage. Another is on the defensive end. Penn State actually ranks inside the top 30 in the country in defensive efficiency. Rutgers is a surprising 44th in its own right, but only 220th on offense. Penn State is due for a big win and gets it here. Play on PENN STATE

AAA

This is an 8* play on OREGON STATE

Washington kept its unbeaten Pac 12 record intact with a 61-56 win at Oregon Thursday. Despite jumping out to a 13-2 lead in that game, it was not easy. The Ducks, playing without Bol Bol, came back with a huge rally to take the lead in the second half. The three Huskies starters that finished in double figures combined to shoot 18 of 28. This is Washington's best start in conference play in 35 years and they've won eight in a row overall. But I see those streaks coming to an end today in Corvallis. The Huskies might be playing good defense right now, but Oregon State is 8-1 at home where it averages 81.0 points per game. Earlier in the year, Washington did pull off a weekend road sweep of Utah and Colorado. But it was just the fifth time they pulled off the feat in the last decade. I don't see it happening again this week.  In addition to being 8-1 SU at home, Oregon State is also 6-2 ATS with a push Thursday vs. Washington State. The Beavers scored 90 points in that game. Washington is only 2-9 ATS after allowing 60 points or less. Play on OREGON STATE

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This is an 8* play on Illinois 

This is a neutral site game with the teams playing at Madison Square Garden. Maryland, who has been a surprise this year, is off a bad performance against Michigan State. A team that averages 75.6 points per game scored only 55 against the Spartans, on 34.4% shooting. Now it would be easy to chalk that up to playing a very good opponent. It was not just the fewest points scored by Maryland in any game, it was also their second worst shooting percentage. Certainly, Sparty had a lot to do with it. But I wouldn't go counting on an immediate bounce back from the Terrapins. Rather, this sets up as a fairly tricky spot against an Illinois team that has been more "unlucky" than bad. The Illini competed hard earlier this week at Wisconsin, only to come up a bit short. Despite shooting only 35 percent, they were still tied with the Badgers midway through the second half. I think this neutral setting is a blessing for the underdog, who would have probably struggled in College Park. It is absolutely worth pointing out that Maryland is just 1-5-1 ATS its last seven games against teams with losing records. This number is too high. Play on ILLINOIS

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This is a 10* play on the CAVS

It's "deja vu all over again" in Cleveland where the fanbase has to be feeling "2010 vibes." Of course, the 2010-11 season was a disaster as LeBron James had just decided to take his "talents" to South Beach. The Cavs would finish a league-worst 19-63 SU that year. Of course, everything worked out in the end as James returned and Cleveland won its first major professional sports championship in six decades. But eight years later, the Cavaliers have returned to the bottom of the league. They are 9-40 SU and have won only one time in the last 18 games. Somewhat ironically, they face LeBron's "other" former team tonight. As bad as things are, I expect Cleveland to cover. Miami has failed to score even 100 points in four of its last five games. They should not be laying this much weight to anybody on the road. Without Goran Dragic, turnovers have been an issue. This will be the Heat's 5th road game in 11 days. Cleveland is playing at home for just the 2nd time in 17 days, so maybe that motivates them?  Play on CLEVELAND

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This is an 8* play on OREGON

The Pac 12 is in the midst of a down year. So much so that there's a very strong chance only one team from the conference will make the NCAA Tournament. Right now Washington leads the league with a 5-0 record. They are the only team without a loss. But few teams are really out of it. You'd have to figure that Oregon would be near the top were it not for losing star Bol Bol a couple weeks back. It was partly because of Bol's absence that I faded the Ducks Saturday night. But it was also because they were on the road and just a small underdog facing an Arizona State team that had beaten Kansas earlier in the year. Back at home, I expect Oregon to snap Washington's seven-game win streak and hand them their first Pac 12 loss. All four Huskies losses this season have come on the road. This is their first time starting 5-0 in Pac 12 play in 35 years. They were lucky to get away with a poor performance (missed 13 of first 14 shots) against a bad Cal team last Saturday. They still won 71-57, but are 1-9 ATS after the last 10 times they gave up 60 points or less. Oregon is 8-3 straight up in Eugene. Play on OREGON

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This is a 10* play on the WIZARDS

Golden State rolls into Washington D.C. on an eight-game win streak. But the Wizards should be ready for this nationally televised affair Thursday night and they're playing a lot better since John Wall went down. Over the last 10 games, Washington's record is 7-3 straight up and 8-2 against the spread. Their last game, a 101-87 win over Detroit, saw them allow a season-low in points. The only home game they've lost in the new year was to Toronto, by two, and that game went to double overtime. The Warriors have hardly played a murderer's row of opponents lately. January's schedule has been filled with sub-.500 foes, save for that big win they had in Denver last Tuesday. The Wizards are six games below the Mendoza Line, but that doesn't mean they're out of it in the Eastern Conference. Not that the underdog needs any added motivation beyond hosting the NBA Champs on TNT. Washington is a good home team too. Their record at the Verizon Center is 14-8 straight up and they're 5-1 ATS when getting points. Play on WASHINGTON. 

AAA

This is a 10* on MIAMI 

You have to tip your cap to Syracuse for playing well of late. They have that win over Duke (where they were 17-point underdogs), which is part of a 4-1 start in ACC play and 6-1 run over the last seven games overall. But let's see if they can mantain it. After this game, they'll play their next three on the road. But don't go thinking this matchup with Miami at the Carrier Dome will be any walk in the park. The Hurricanes haven't been quite as lucky in ACC play, getting off to just a 1-4 start. But they've played the likes of Florida State, North Carolina State and North Carolina tough. Versus North Carolina, they were tied at the half and it was a 1-point game with just 6 1/2 minutes left. There were 18 lead changes despite the Tar Heels shooting 55 percent overall. Syracuse isn't going to shoot that well, mark my words. The Orange are only shooting 42% for the year. The road team has covered 9 of the last 11 meetings with Miami going 4-1 ATS at the Carrier Dome. Play on MIAMI.

AAA

This is a 10* play on Duquesne. 

Here's a play that I really love. Saint Louis is a good defensive team and unbeaten (5-0) in Atlantic 10 play. I wouldn't exactly be ready to trust the Billikens to go out and win a road game with this offense, which is rated an ugly 255th in the country in terms of offensive efficiency. The team isn't ranked, nor should it be, as so far all its done is taken advantage of a very week bottom of the A-10. They have won at LaSalle and Fordham, but those two are a combined 1-9 in conference play. In fact, four of the Billikens five A-10 victories have come against teams that are a combined 2-19 SU in conference play. Tonight they face Duquesne, who's no world beater, but does average 77.8 PPG at home where they are 11-2 straight up. Twice this season, the Dukes have been a home dog of three points or less. Both times they won the game. They're 4-1 ATS in that role the last three seasons. This will be called an upset by the national media, but really it isn't much of an upset at all. Play on DUQUESNE

AAA

This is a 10* play on the KNICKS

The Knicks have very little going for them presently, but they are getting a nice number at home tonight against a Houston side that just got blown out Monday in Philadelphia. The Rockets reliance on James Harden, some would say over-reliance, has perhaps become a bit of a problem. Harden scored 37 on MLK Day, but the rest of the team did very little to support him, contributing only 56 points. Part of that is injuries to both Clint Capela and Chris Paul, which have them out of the lineup. Carmelo Anthony is long gone. Then again, offense doesn't matter much when you're giving up as many points as the Rockets have been lately. They are 4-12 ATS this season after giving up 115 or more points the last game. The Rockets are just 9-13 SU on the road this year, so I wouldn't put it past them to throw up another "clunker" tonight. Eventually, Harden's record-breaking streak of 30+ point games (now at 20 straight) is going to come to an end. Play NEW YORK

AAA

This is an 8* play on UNLV

Two longtime Mt West rivals meet here in Sin City with UNLV hosting New Mexico. Everyone is chasing Nevada in this league and no one is likely to catch them. UNLV is a bit closer than New Mexico though as a win tonight would put them in a first place tie with the Wolf Pack. Though over time, Nevada will pull away, I do believe the Rebels will find themselves in a first place tie after tonight. They're favored and for good reason as they're at home and the superior defensive outfit. Both teams are off blowout wins - New Mexico 83-53 over Wyoming and UNLV 94-56 over San Jose State. But of the two teams, UNLV is the one more likely to turn in another strong defensive effort. They give up just 63.9 PPG at home. New Mexico, whose 30-point win over Wyoming was at home, gives up 79.6 PPG on the road. The Lobos have lost their last two road games, both by double digits. Play on UNLV.

AAA

This is an 8* play on MISS ST

Kentucky has started to move up the rankings and comes into this game at #8 in the country. That seems a bit high to me and they're going to be tested tonight by another ranked squad, that being #22 Mississippi State. Normally, you'd expect a team to be "up" for a visit from a fellow ranked foe. But in the case of UK, Miss State comes smack dab in the middle of an Auburn-Kansas sandwich. The Wildcats outlasted Auburn 82-80 in a very hard fought game on Saturday and there's no doubt that the players will be looking forward to this weekend's showdown with the Jayhawks. So look for the road dog to come in and catch UK "napping." MSU is no slouch as they are off a week where they beat both Florida and Vanderbilt. There are two keys to this game for the Bulldogs. One is three-point shooting. They have made 156 three-point shots this year, which is second most among SEC schools. Kentucky is 13th in 3-pt FGM at 102. Also, MSU tends to dominate the boards, something they did exceptionally well at Vanderbilt where they didn't allow a single offensive rebound in the second half. Play on MISSISSIPPI STATE. 

AAA

This is an 8* play on the LAKERS.

The Lakers would appear to be severely outmanned here and have little chance of keeping up with the Warriors. But that's what the pointspread is for and I think this is way too many points for Golden State to be laying on the road. Only two nights ago, the Lakers took another quality team (Houston) into overtime and even led that game by as much as 21 points. Letting such a lead slip away is pretty painful, but it shows this team is ready to compete, even without LeBron James. Before that overtime game vs. the Rockets, the Lakers managed to beat the Thunder, also an overtime game. Those last two games were both on the road. Lonzo Ball is also now out, joining James on the bench, but at least this game takes place in the Staples Center where the Lakers are 15-9 SU. Also, don't sell this team's defense short. They've held their last five opponents to a 40.7 field goal percentage. It will be tough holding Golden State to that number, but it's going to take some "getting used to" for the Warriors and DeMarcus Cousins, who will playing just his second game tonight. I say take the points. Play on LA LAKERS. 

AAA

This is an 8* play on KANSAS.

I like KANSAS to bounce back here from a weekend loss in Morgantown, West Virginia. That loss saw the Jayhawks go down on a last-second layup as they allowed the game's final seven points. The last time Kansas was off a loss (1.5 @ Iowa State), I grabbed them at home laying single digits and they took care of business against TCU, 77-68. Given KU is now facing the team that handed them that previous loss, I say they'll be especially motivated tonight at Allen Fieldhouse. It isn't often that Bill Self's team is this short of a favorite on its own floor. They are 10-0 in Lawrence this year. Since beating Kansas, Iowa State has lost twice - both time as a favorite. I have a tremendous amount of respect for the Cyclones and they did get back on track last week with two wins, one of them at Texas Tech. But all the signs point to a strong showing by Kansas, who is a) at home, b) off a loss and c) playing with revenge. Iowa State is just 1-6-1 ATS its last eight Monday games, so this is really an inopportune time for this game (from their perspective). Play on KANSAS

AAA

This is a 10* play on BOSTON.

With three straight wins, the Celtics seem to have turned a bit of a corner. While two of those wins were against Memphis and Atlanta, both struggling teams, the other was over Toronto. The last time Boston lost a home game was all the way back on December 21st against Milwaukee, who has the best record in the league. For Martin Luther King Day, they will welcome in a Miami squad that's at the end of a four-game trip. The Heat's only win on this trip came in Chicago and today marks their third game in the last four days. Boston is in the same situation, but is at home and a better team. It's no accident that the Celtics are winning so much at home. The simply play better here, averaging 114.4 points while giving up just 103.8 points. Miami is the definition of average and just faced two very bad offensive teams. They'll have problems here trying to stop Kyrie Irving, who has averaged 30.5 points over the last four games and 35.0 in the last two. This is a revenge game for the Celtics, who lost by 11 down in Miami on an off-shooting night for Kyrie. Different story this time. Play on BOSTON

AAA

This is a 10* play on CHARLOTTE.

Following in the path of George Mason and VCU, Old Dominion ditched the Colonial for a bigger conference, in this case Conference USA. But unlike those other teams (who both went to the Atlantic 10), the Monarchs have never gone to a Final Four, nor are they likely to anytime soon. While the Monarchs do boast a 10-1 SU record at home this year, they're just 4-4 otherwise and today they find themselves in a tricky spot traveling to Charlotte and having to lay points. Before crushing Southern Miss over the weekend, ODU had failed to cover five straight games. That streak included an outright loss at Florida Atlantic. Charlotte is 5-0 ATS in its last five games and just upset Louisiana Tech here over the weekend. The 49ers are accustomed to being underdogs and have been playing excellent defense recently. They held La Tech to 27.8% shooting, making it three of the last four opponents failing to shoot above 38%. ODU typically also plays good defense, but can be exploited from the three-point line where they are allowing 38.9% shooting away from home. Charlotte is 5-2 ATS its last seven home games. Play on CHARLOTTE

AAA

This is an 8* play on South Dakota

I always give at least a cursory glance to the added board on a day such as this and today something really caught my eye. South Dakota probably deserves to have a better record than its current mark of 8-10 as all but three of those defeats have been by six points or less. I like them today in the underdog role visiting Omaha. The hosts got off to a very rough 3-7 start to this year, but have turned things around by going 7-1 in their last eight games. But don't go buying these Mavericks just yet as I don't believe they'll be able to maintain their recent scoring pace. South Dakota will slow this game down and play at their preferred tempo, which should keep things lower scoring and thus an ideal spot for an underdog. Grab the points. Play on SOUTH DAKOTA 

AAA

This is a 10* play on BOSTON COLLEGE

Florida State has not been even a little bit reliable as a favorite in the 2018-19 season. They've gone 5-10 ATS in that role and just lost outright at Pittsburgh earlier in the week. That was certainly a tough spot to be laying points on the road as the 'Noles were just 48 hours removed from coming up two points shorts against Duke. But losing to Pitt by 13 was pretty bad. So was missing 20 of their 22 three-point attempts in the game. Here, FSU again is on the road. They'll be playing Boston College, whose dropped five in a row. But be aware that two of those five losses for the Eagles have come by three points or less. For B.C., this is a welcome return to Chesnut Hill as they've lost tough road games to Notre Dame and Louisville in the last week. Boston College does have four double digit scorers. They're also 5-1 ATS when taking points. They've covered in three of those five losses. This one could be an upset win. Play on BOSTON COLLEGE

AAA

This is a 10* play on ARIZONA STATE

Not even a month ago, Arizona State was ranked 18th in the country. They welcome in Kansas (ranked #1 at the time) and upset the Jayhawks 80-76 as a three-point underdog. That the Sun Devils were only a three-point underdog to Kansas, even at home, shows they are a team to be respected. That win got ASU as high as #17 in the polls, but they've gone just 3-3 since and barely beat Oregon State Thursday night here at home. However, this sets up the Sun Devils as a strong value play on tonight's card. They'll be facing an Oregon team whose season has taken a more permanent turn for the worse with Bol Bol done for the year. The Ducks are also 3-3 in their last six games, but unlike Arizona State, I don't really see any kind of turnaround forthcoming. If you don't think Arizona State won't be motivated by the fact they've lost seven in a row to Oregon, think again. Despite the Oregon State game ending up as a close call, the Sun Devils did have an 18-point lead in the second half. Look for Bobby Hurley's team to win big Saturday night. Play on ARIZONA STATE. 

AAA

This is a 10* play on WESTERN MICHIGAN

With a snowstorm expected to hit the area, gametime has been moved up to 2:30 ET, rather than the originally scheduled 6:00 ET tip time. For Western Michigan, I guess that means they'll get to go home with at least an ATS win a little earlier than expected! Despite Bowling Green being undefeated in conference play and WMU being winless, these teams are a lot closer in true talent than their respective records show. Bowling Green has been the betting favorite in only one of its four MAC games thus far while Western Michigan just had to play the best team in the league, Buffalo. Before that, they faced a good Toledo team. Bowling Green will be a pretty clear drop in class from those two previous opponents and the Broncos did win outright in their lone road game in this price range (+6.5 to +9) when they went to Oakland and won 85-77. Despite their 6-11 SU record, WMU has only been outscored by about 1 point per game over the course of the season. Play on WESTERN MICHIGAN 

AAA

This is an 8* play on CHARLOTTE.

The Suns and Hornets each last played on Thursday. The way those games went I believe will have a bearing on today's contest. Phoenix took a brutal loss up in Toronto, losing at the buzzer in a game effort. They were obviously big underdogs up in Canada, but fought hard throughout only to come up just short. This is a tough turnaround having to head down to Charlotte, who was quite successful on Thursday as they clobbered Sacramento 114-95. That was the Hornets second straight win as they'd previously upset San Antonio at the end of a six-game swing out West. At home, I think the Hornets have a pretty clear edge here. They recently (as in earlier this month) beat the Suns out in Phoenix, 119-113. The Suns shot 51.5% overall from the field in that game, including 10 of 25 (40%) from three-point range. They aren't likely to shoot that well again playing on the road. The Suns are an awful 4-18 away from home, getting outscored by almost 12 points per game. Charlotte is 15-8 at home and should win big Saturday. Play on CHARLOTTE 

AAA

Wright State has had a very unlucky year. Five losses by four points or less. They did win a close one Thursday though, beating Youngstown State 80-74. Saturday finds the Raiders trying to win back to back games for just the third time this season. The previous two instances all occurred at home.  Here they would have to turn the trick all on the road. Cleveland State is having an even tougher season at 5-15 SU and they've opened Horizon League play by going 0-7. But giving the Vikings hope is that Wright State is playing its FIFTH straight road game. That's pretty rare. Cleveland State's leading scorer is Tyree Appleby. He is listed as questionable here, stemming from the illness that kept him out of the Northern Kentucky game. Not having him would not be ideal, but this just hasn't been Wright State's year. I look for the home underdog to surprise. Play on CLEVELAND STATE. 

This is a 10* Play on the CLIPPERS.

This will be the Warriors third game in four nights. They have certainly scored plenty in the previous two. It was a 142-111 statement win in Denver Tuesday night. Wednesday saw them rally from behind for a 147-140 win over the Pelicans. Tonight they're in LA to face a desperate Clippers side that has lost four straight. Your first thought might be this is a terrible time to be facing the Warriors. After all, they'll be adding DeMarcus Cousins (making season debut) to an already historically great roster. But the Clips are no pushovers and getting this many points at home, they're a strong value play. Again, I'll point out that the Warriors did trail the Pelicans pretty significantly Wednesday. They were behind by 17 in the first half. Also, wouldn't it be fair to question if Cousins will disrupt their offensive rhythm? The Clippers are 6-0 ATS in Friday night games and they have already played the Warriors tough on two separate occasions. Once, at home, they beat them. The second time was a 2-point loss in Oakland. I'm taking the points in this ESPN matchup.  Play on LA CLIPPERS.

AAA

This is a 10* play on Villanova.

It shouldn't be any real surprise but Villanova is again ruling the Big East. They've started conference play with four straight wins and are on a five-game win streak overall. Some of the wins have been close. But the last one was most impressive. They went to Creighton and put up 90 in a 12-point win Sunday. That was a memorable performance for me as well considering I took the Wildcats. I will again Friday. They're playing Xavier tonight. The Musketeers have won two straight home games, beating Georgetown and Butler. But they are still playing without injured point guard Quentin Goodwin. His backup made a career high five three-pointers in the last game, which ended up being a one-point win over Butler. Xavier won't get that kind of production here. Villanova has won 26 of the last 31 meetings and four straight. Play on VILLANOVA. 

AAA

This is a 10* play on DENVER.

Denver is coming off a humiliating loss Tuesday night to Golden State. They were beaten, at home, by a score of 142-111. Most notably they gave up a 51-point 1st quarter, which was a NBA record. Tonight they have an opportunity to take their frustration out on a lesser opponent. Let us not forget the kind of season the Nuggets are having. What happened Tuesday was just one game. This team is still 18-4 at home. They are still second in the Western Conference (and could even be tied for 1st depending what happens Wednesday night with Golden State vs. New Orleans). Bottom line is they are one of the best teams in the league. Tonight's opponent is one of the very worst in the league. Chicago has lost eight straight games. Four of the eight losses have been by 12 points or more. Even though they played the Nuggets tough very early in the year, the Bulls are just 2-7 ATS the last nine meetings. I expect the Nuggets to come out HIGHLY motivated in this one. Play on DENVER

AAA

This is a 10* play on DREXEL

Towson and Drexel are both near the bottom of the Colonial. Of the two, Drexel has been slighty better. They have eight overall wins and two conference wins to Towson's five and one. So the Dragons definitely deserve to be favored at home, but in my opinion the oddsmakers should have them laying even more points. Towson has lost its last five games, all by eight points or more an is 0-5 ATS. Drexel can score. They average 81.4 points per game at home. Problem is they gave up 97 in their last game. That was on the road though. Towson won't be scoring anywhere close to that many points tonight. They've been held to 65 points or less four times during the five-game losing streak. They average only 66.6 points per game. Drexel has covered 4 of the 5 games it's been favored. Towson is 4-8 ATS as an underdog. Play on DREXEL. 

AAA

This is an 8* play on the KNICKS

This game takes place in London, hence the afternoon start time. As if things couldn't already be bad enough for the Knicks (have lost 17 of its last 19 games), they'll be playing this game without Enes Kanter. Kanter, their leading rebounder and third leading scorer, has opted to stay back in America over growing safety concens due to his feud with the Turkish President. Meanwhile, a curious thing has taken place with the Wizards (18-26 SU). They've played a whole lot better since losing John Wall for the season! They are also playing without Dwight Howard. Despite missing the two former All-Stars, Washington owns recent wins over Oklahoma City, Philadelphia and Milwaukee. But the Bucks didn't have Giannis in that game. Also, the Wiz's last game was a double OT loss to Toronto. That's the last thing they needed before this trip. The bottom line is that in a neutral setting like this, there's too many unknowns to lay this many points with a below average team like Washington. They are 2-6 ATS after allowing 130 or more points their last game. Play on NEW YORK.

AAA

This is a 10* play on the CLIPPERS.

Games like this one are always going to be important considering the nature of the Western Conference where so many teams are bunched up. For the Clippers, who are on a three-game losing streak and desperate for a win, fortunately this game is taking place at the Staples Center. Though things have been a bit rough recently, at least they're still 6th in the Conference. They have a 14-8 SU record at home. Utah has heated up recently, but at the expense of some weak opponents, and they're still 9th in the West. The Jazz have a four-game win streak, but all four wins were at home and they came against Orlando, the Lakers (no LeBron), Chicago and Detroit. Hardly a "murderer's row" there. The Clippers are 17-7 ATS when favored. Play on LA CLIPPERS 

AAA

This is a 10* play on Wichita State.

A late tipoff at Koch Arena in Wichita tonight and I think that helps the home team a lot as UCF is already making a long trek here. The length of road trips is certainly something worth noting in the American Conference where the schools are pretty spread out across the Eastern half of the United States. Virtually every team in this league has an impressive home record, but no one is exactly tearing it up on the road. UCF is the only American team without a conference loss, but I look for that to change after tonight as Wichita State is not used to being below .500 (SU record is 7-8 right now), nor are they accustomed to four-game losing streaks like the one they are on now. True to the story I'm telling here, three of those four losses were out on the road. The only home loss was by four to Temple. This is the longest losing skid for the Wheat Shockers in several seasons and it's not often you find them as a home underdog. It hasn't happened this year, until now. They are 5-2 SU at home this year and +6.9 PPG. Play on WICHITA STATE

AAA

This is an 8* play on Penn State.

Penn State is 0-6 and in last place in the Big 10 standings (7-10 overall). But I think we are very likely to soon see the Nittany Lions play like they did during the non-conference portion of the schedule. The Big 10 is very tough this year with 9 or maybe even 10 teams possibly NCAA Tournament bound. It seems like the Nittany Lions have played darn near all the top teams in the league so far. They are coming off a brutal gauntlet of Michigan, Wisconsin, Nebraska and Michigan State, who collectively might be the Big 10's four best teams. They've also faced Maryland and Indiana. Iowa should be considered a Big Dance team right now and they are coming off a few big wins of their own, the most recent being one that I was on as they beat Ohio State by 10. But this game is in Happy Valley and Iowa is probably the weakest Big 10 team PSU has faced yet. Big edge on defense for the Nittany Lions in this matchup as they are 20th in defensive efficiency while Iowa ranks 82nd. Play on PENN STATE.

AAA

This is a 10* play on Denver.

I probably don't have to tell you what a big game this is. The big thing for Denver is getting it at home where they have an 18-3 record and have won 12 in a row. They've already beaten Golden State once this year here. Sure, it was by just two points, but that'll work again here. The Warriors are a surprising 10-10 straight up against teams with winning records and only 7-13 against the spread in those games. Denver has a half-game lead on them right now for 1st in the Western Conference. A key edge in this game lies on the defensive end. Golden State gives up 112.1 points per game on the road. Denver allows only 102.1 at home. Play on DENVER

AAA

This is a 10* play on Akron.

Akron could really use a win here as they went 0-2 on the road last week. One of those losses was by only two points (to Central Michigan) in overtime. Coming off that painful loss, the Zips were then surprisingly blown out, 73-56, at Northern Illinois. But it's not like they started poorly; they actually led 34-25 at halftime before NIU got ridiculously hot in the second half, shooting almost 75% from the field. Fortunately, Akron is back home tonight where they've gone 7-1 on the year. They'll host Eastern Michigan, who has been a real Jekyll and Hyde outfit this season. They just turned in a couple Jekyll-type performances last week in beating Ball State (in overtime) and Kent State. But I look for a "Hyde-like" showing tonight considering the Eagles' woeful numbers on the road. They are just 1-5 SU outside of Ypsilanti and getting outscored by almost 20 PPG. Akron plays outstanding defense at home (55.9 PPG allowed!) and has double revenge from two losses suffered at the hands of EMU last season. Play on AKRON.

AAA

This is a 10* PLAY ON THE CLIPPERS

Unless it happens to involve Phoenix, virtually every Western Conference game this year carries some meaning. Right now, you have 10 teams bunched up, just five games within one another. The difference between those 10 teams is 5th place and second from the bottom (14th). The Clippers and Pelicans happen to be two of the teams in this jumbled mess. Los Angeles is out in front, tied for 5th in the conference, while New Orleans is towards the bottom of the back and 4.5 games behind LA. The Clippers have the homecourt advantage tonight and that's huge considering the Pelicans terrible 5-17 road record. NO just lost up in Minnesota Saturday and the Clippers team that takes the court tonight will not be in a giving mood after losing themselves (as 7.5 point favorites) to Detroit, right here at home that same night. The Clippers, who are 17-7 ATS when favored, have come back to win three of the four times after they've previously suffered an outright loss as a favorite. The Pelicans may have Anthony Davis, but the Clippers have the deeper roster, which is evident by the fact they're currently on pace to have the highest scoring bench in three decades. New Orleans is one of the worst defensive teams in the league and gives up almost 115 PPG. Play on LOS ANGELES

AAA

This is a 10* Play on DUKE.

This is a matchup that always attracts a lot of attention nationally as you have two famous coaches who have guided their respective programs to National Championships. But, let's face it. Duke has a sizable edge coming into this meeting and that's true whether or not Zion Williamson is able to play Monday. The Blue Devils are #1 in the country and will stay that way thanks to a last second three-pointer that beat Florida State, 80-78, on Saturday. Williamson was poked in the eye and missed the entire second half. Coach K has gone on record as saying "he (Zion) is better now." Either way, a big edge to the Blue Devils, who are so far and away the best team in the country this year and playing at home. Syracuse is off a 73-59 loss to Georgia Tech, a game they were favored to win by 8.5-points. That game was at home too. Their 2-3 zone got torched for nearly 60% shooting by the Yellow Jackets. Duke has the depth and talent necessary to overcome a possible Williamson absence and the fact is they're outscoring opponents by almost 35 points per game here in Durham. Syracuse hasn't played many road games and this one won't be very fun. Play on DUKE

AAA

This is an 8* play on the CAVS

The Cavs are very bad, but they will be highly motivated tonight to beat the Lakers even though the greatest and most famous player in Cleveland history (LeBron James) will not be playing. Any motivation lost from not facing James is made up by the fact that the Lakers are infinitely more beatable without him. Friday's loss in Utah was very ugly (shot 36%) and dropped LA to 3-6 since James got injured. So laying this many points with the Lakers right now seems most unwise. Yes, Cleveland has lost 12 in a row and just allowed 141 points in their last game (to Houston). But even when the Lakers had James, the Cavs took them down to the wire back in November, losing by only four points. After a string of horrible defensive performances, you have to think Cleveland is going to eventually "show up" for one of these games. I feel tonight is the night as the Lakers were rarely favored by this many even with James in the lineup. Play on Cleveland 

AAA

This is a 10* play on Villanova 

Villanova has finally started to turn things around. The defending National Champs started slow this year with some shocking losses. Shocking in the sense that they were either to inferior foes (like Furman and Penn) or in blowout fashion (lost by 27 to Michigan). But since dropping two straight three-point decisions last month, the Wildcats have posted four straight wins coming into Sunday. They failed to cover at home vs. St. John's in their last game, but that was a nice win nevertheless. Today they're up against a Creighton team that has lost its last two games, including a heartbreaker vs. Marquette on Wednesday. They lost 106-104 in overtime after Marquette was able to tie the game with a late three in regulation. That's going to be a very difficult loss for the Bluejays to overcome. Nova is the only team in the Big East without a conference loss as their annual domination of this league could be forthcoming. I love them as basically a pick em here as Creighton really struggles defensively. The Wildcats have covered six of their last eight road games. Play on VILLANOVA

AAA

This is a 10* play on San Francisco 

Not since the days of Wilt Chamberlain has their been a bigger basketball game on the campus of the University of San Francisco. You may think I'm falling prey to hyperbole with that statement, but it's true. Sure, this isn't the first time, nor the last, that a highly ranked Gonzaga team is coming here to play. But it's definitely the first time in a LONG time where the Dons come in thinking they can win. They are 14-2 this year, an excellent defensive team, and have been off for a full week to prepare for this game. When I took the Dons back on January 3rd against St. Mary's, I called that their biggest home game in some time. They won, 76-72, and covered as a small home favorite. This game is obviously even bigger and this time the Dons are getting points and plenty of them. Gonzaga has annihilated its last six opponents, but all those games were at home. This is their first time playing away from Spokane since losing to North Carolina on December 15th. USF is an experienced group whose two losses this year have been by a total of six points. They are 10-0 at home, allowing less than 60 points per game. I love them plus the points tonight. Play on SAN FRANCISCO

AAA

This is an 8* play on Iowa

Ohio State is looking to rebound from an upset loss at the hands of Rutgers Wednesday night, a game they were favored to win by 5.5 points. They lost 64-61, which could drop them out of the top 25. Things get no easier tonight for the #16 team in the country as they have to visit Iowa, who is one of the nine Big 10 teams currently slotted for the NCAA Tournament. The Hawkeyes have pulled off consecutive minor upsets, first over Nebraska, then at Northwestern, the latter coming without leading scorer Tyler Cook. With this game being at home, they are favored here. Ohio State was 12-1, but has now dropped consecutive games for the first time. They lost at home to Michigan State last weekend, which was okay, but losing at Rutgers is not.  Iowa should get Cook back here, which is a big deal seeing as he's also 5th in the Big 10 in rebounding. The Buckeyes are going to have trouble stopping a Hawkeyes team averaging 86.1 points/game in Iowa City, which is a major reason why they're 9-1 SU here this season. Play on IOWA

AAA

This is an 8* play on Georgetown

We look to the Big East for this early Saturday tip with Georgetown (11-5) hosting Providence (10-5). The host Hoyas haven't been very effective this season - or the last few for that matter - but the good news is the number is inconsequential today. The Hoyas are coming off two close losses, by three to St. John's and six to Xavier. It's a similar story for Providence as they've lost by 11 to Creighton and six to Villanova. But the difference is both Friars losses came at home. They (Providence) are also still without guard A.J. Reeves (a 14.2 PPG scorer). After losing both meetings last year (by a total of nine points), Georgetown is going to come in highly motivated Saturday. G'town is the superior offensive side in this one, averaging 82.7 PPG overall and 87.8 PPG at home. Play on GEORGETOWN

AAA

This is an 8* play on GOLDEN STATE

Again, a game where the favorite should roll to victory. I had the Warriors Tuesday night when they hosted the Knicks. I spelled it out that NY was in the wrong place at the wrong time and sure enough it was all Golden State in a 122-95 blowout. Tonight they face a comparable team to the Knicks in the Bulls. The Warriors have been off for two days while Chicago is playing its second road game in three nights. They gave up 124 points Wednesday in Portland, so you can just imagine how many Golden State should score tonight. Over the last five games, they have averaged 126 points/game. Chicago simply isn't capable of scoring anywhere close to that number and after scoring 112 in Portland, they're probably due for a downturn anyway. The Bulls have the worst offensive efficency in the league currently. This spread is at least several points too low as the Warriors already won by 25 in Chicago earlier in the year, scoring 149 (!) points in the process. Play on GOLDEN STATE

AAA

This is a 10* play on BROOKLYN.

Here's a game where I like the underdog. The Nets have risen to 6th in the Eastern Conference (entering Thursday), if you can believe that. They have won four out of their last five, two of them on the road and two as underdogs. Now winning in Toronto will not be easy. The Raptors have reclaimed the top spot in the East via a three-game win streak, which includes impressive triumphs over Milwaukee and Indiana. The last game was a bit of a sleepwalking-type effort though as they only beat Atlanta by three, right here at home. The following night the Nets took advantage of the Hawks being unrested and beat them by 16. While Kyle Lowry is back for the Raptors now, Jonas Valanciunas remains out for several more weeks. Brooklyn beat Toronto last month, albeit at home, doing so as an 8.5-point dog. They're actually playing much better now with a 13-4 SU record the last 17 games, topping Toronto's own 10-7 over the same stretch. Play on BROOKLYN

AAA

This is an 8* play on PHILADELPHIA

The 76ers should have an even easier time than expected with the Hawks tonight. Atlanta has lost two straight on the road and four out of its last five overall. They are just 12-29 SU and one of the clear bottom five teams in the league. Philadelphia has just been unbelievable when it comes to covering games at home the last three seasons, going 67-39 ATS. They need not worry about this high pointspread considering they've already beaten Atlanta by 21 on this floor, earlier this season. For further proof of how much better the Sixers are at home, look at what they just did vs. Washington, splitting a home and home. The performance on the road was terrible, but at home they put up 132 points. The Sixers are now 18-3 SU at home this year and averaging 117.3 PPG. They are 7-1 ATS following a double digit loss (lost 123-106 in Washington Wednesday) as well. Play on PHILADELPHIA

AAA

This is a 10* play on Maryland

The Big 10 is incredibly deep this season with as many as nine teams possibly NCAA Tournament bound. The two here both feel like they're going to finish near the top. Both Indiana and Maryland have a loss in conference play, but while the former can claim to be ranked, the latter has the advantages of getting this one at home and at a time when IU is a bit short-handed. The Hoosiers have almost no depth right now with four reserves injured. In Sunday's loss at Michigan, all 63 points came from the starting five. There's no shame losing in Ann Arbor, especially when you'd won seven in a row before that. But playing on the road for a second straight game might be. Maryland is 6-1 in its last 7 games, winning four in a row. They beat a good Nebraska team the last time they played at home and are off a minor upset of Minnesota on the road. Pay no mind to the fact Indiana is ranked and Maryland isn't. It's a fairly useless distinction and the homecourt provided a substantial edge. The Terps are already 4-0 ATS in Big 10 play. Play on Maryland

AAA

THis is a 10* play on Pacific

As per usual, when Gonzaga faces a "lesser" team from the West Coast Conference, the spread is going to be quite high. But this one against Pacific Thursday night is simply too high. It's not hard to understand what the oddsmakers are thinking here. The Zags are coming off a 91-48 massacre of Santa Clara on Saturday. That marked the #5 team in the country's fifth straight cover, all of which have come as a favorite of 26.5 points or more! So this line is actually right in line with recent results, but don't think for a second that Gonzaga doesn't have an eye on this weekend's showdown in San Francisco where they'll be taking on the WCC's 2nd best team. Pacific obviously isn't going to win this game, but the back door will always be open. Play on PACIFIC

AAA

This is a 10* play on Denver.

I'd say it's fair to say this is a pretty important game in the Western Conference. Denver is one game up on Golden State for the top spot while the Clippers aren't too far behind, in fourth position, just 3.5 back of the Nuggets. But Denver has always enjoyed one of the league's strongest home court advantages and I'm a little surprised they're not favored by more here. They're 16-3 SU at the Pepsi Center so far this year and are outscoring teams here by a double digit margin. In their last game, the Nuggets won at Miami, 103-99 as a two-point dogs. That's a good sign for tonight as they're a perfect 5-0 against the spread when coming off an outright win as an underdog. The Clippers come in riding a three-game win streak, but those wins were against Phoenix, Orlando and Charlotte, all sub-.500 teams. LA had better than usual defensive performances in those three wins, but I wouldn't expect such an effort to take place here considering they still allow more than 115 PPG on the road. This is a revenge game for the Nuggets as they lost to the Clippers by 21 at the Staples Center right before Christmas. Revenge will be sweet tonight. Play on DENVER 

AAA

THis is an 8* play on the PISTONS.

Under normal circumstances, the Pistons would not be a great bet in this price range, on the road, against the Lakers. But this is not a normal circumstance. The Lakers are playing without LeBron James and as we've seen that hasn't gone too well for them. Since James injured his groin Christmas Night against Golden State, LA is just 2-5 straight up. One of the two wins did come Monday, as 7.5-point dogs, in Dallas. But before that, they'd lost at home to the Knicks and gotten blown out in Minnesota. Now you need not tell me that Detroit has been floundering itself recently, but they'll come out highly motivated here to win a national TV game against a wounded foe. The Lakers are a poor 11-16 ATS when favored and 3-9 ATS vs. the Eastern Conference and remember most of those games were played with LeBron in the lineup. The Pistons aren't a great shooting team, but neither are the Lakers since LeBron went down. Play on DETROIT

AAA

This is a 10* play on Kansas.

I actually had to do a double take when I first saw this line. This is way too small of a number for Kansas to be laying at home, especially coming off a loss. Perhaps the oddsmakers have forgotten just how good the Jayhawks really are? More likely, it has to do with the loss of Udoka Azubuike (hand injury) for the rest of the season. But still, Azubuike is just one player. Sure, he is one of the better players on the team, but he wasn't the leader in either points or rebounds (that's Dedrick Lawson). Yes, KU's first game without Azubuike did not go well at all as they were blown out by 17 at Iowa State. But that was a road game and Iowa State is really good. Better than tonight's opponent, TCU, that's for sure. Plus the Horned Frogs have to come to Lawrence where the Jayhawks have lost only four times in the last 40 tries. It's a bad time for TCU to visit as well. Over the last three seasons, Kansas is 8-0 straight up and 6-1-1 ATS when off a conference loss. They have plenty of experience playing without Azubuike last year and should get the job done tonight. TCU has won nine straight, but this is their most difficult game all season. Play on KANSAS 

AAA

This is an 8* play on Creighton

Marquette (12-3) is ranked 21st in the country coming into this game and has some really nice wins this year. They're the only team to beat Buffalo (did so 103-85) and have also beaten the likes of Kansas State, Louisville and Wisconsin. Sunday saw the Golden Eagles blow out Xavier 70-52. But the common theme of most of their big wins this year is that they came at home. They have played only two true road games and both times they were blown out. It was a 23-point loss to Indiana and a 20-point loss to St. John's. The team they face tonight is Creighton and the Blue Jays should be happy to be back home after opening Big East play with a pair of road games. They split the pair, winning at Providence, but losing at Butler. This is a situation where the home team has major revenge as Creighton is 0-4 straight up and against the spread vs. Marquette the previous two seasons. But both games last year were decided by just four points. Creighton is a strong offensive team, averaging 83.7 points per game, and they shoot the ball exceptionally well (51.6%). All offensive numbers are even better at home as well. Play on CREIGHTON

AAA

This is an 8* play on Golden State

It's time for the Warriors to wake up and start playing like the Warriors. Tonight's home game against the 10-30 Knicks offers the perfect opportunity for that to happen. The Knicks had to play last night in Portland where they predictably lost by double digits. They're in no shape to compete here. It its true that they have covered three straight games, all on the road, including a win over the Lakers. But this is a team that has lost 14 of its last 16 games. The Lakers did not have LeBron James when the Knicks played them. Before that, the Knicks last SU win in regulation came all the way back on the Sunday before Thanksgiving. Obviously, judging from the line here, the SU result is not what we're worried about. Golden State has been a home favorite of more than 12.5 points three times this season. They have covered all three times. After some shaky performances last week, they're rested and ready to blow somebody out. The Knicks happen to be in the wrong place at the wrong time. Play on GOLDEN STATE 

AAA

This is a 10* play on Villanova.

St. John's is 14-1 and now ranked in the latest poll (#24 AP/#23 Coaches), but I happen to view the Red Storm as one of the more overrated teams in the country right now. You'll note that despite their record and ranking, they come is as more than just a slight underdog tonight against Villanova, despite the defending National Champions having had their struggles the first two months of the season. Nova is not ranked, but they're on the cusp and clearly a better team that St. John's. The Wildcats went 2-0 last week, winning a couple close ones over DePaul and Providence. Neither win was pretty, but they still won and that's what counts. While 'Nova is viewed as an underachiever, you'll want to note that two of their losses were by just three points on the road. St. John's is off an overtime win at Georgetown over the weekend, so I wonder how much they'll have left in the tank here. The Johnnies have not faced the stiffest competition to this points (only been a dog once) and I think it's fair to say Villanova is their toughest opponent yet. Play on VILLANOVA. 

AAA

This is an 8* play on DETROIT

The Pistons won for me as underdogs last week, beating Memphis as a 6.5-point road dog. They've since lost, here at home, 110-105 to Utah. The task gets no tougher tonight with San Antonio paying a visit. The Spurs have not only won 12 of their last 15 games, they've gone 13-2 against the spread. They are now sixth in the Western Conference, but playing as well as anyone. Look for this to be a letdown spot, however. This game falls smack dab in the middle of a home and home against the Grizzlies. The Spurs won by 20 the other night over Memphis, at home, but they're still only 6-12 SU on the road this season. A major change for them on the road is that they allow 114.7 points per game. At home, they allow 103.6 points per game. Detroit (17-20 SU) should come out highly motivated tonight seeing as they blew an 18-point first quarter lead to the Jazz on Saturday. The Pistons have gone 6-3 ATS against Western Conference teams this year. Play on DETROIT 

AAA

This is a 10* play on Fairfield

In deference to the College Football National Championship Game, it's a limited College Basketball card on Monday. But there's value to be had here on Fairfield, who hosts Niagara in a MAAC matchup. The Stags (3-11) haven't had a lot go right for them this year, but should have a far better win-loss record. I'm saying that because they've suffered an interminable number of close losses. Eight of the 11 losses have been by seven points or less with six coming by three points or fewer. Not sure if I've ever seen a team play so many close games over the first two months of a season. Bottom line is that Fairfield is due to prevail and they're favored for a reason tonight. Niagara (7-7) has lost its last two games, both as favorites, to Albany and Manhattan. The Purple Eagles will be playing on the road for a second time in three days, right after allowing Manhattan to shoot 63% for the game on Saturday. Fairfield has yet to win at home this season (0-4), so you know they're coming out highly motivated. Play on FAIRFIELD

AAA

This is an 8* play on Iowa

Considering how competitive the Big 10 is this year (7 teams currently ranked), neither 11-3 Nebraska nor 11-3 Iowa can really afford what would be a second straight defeat in conference play. But, by rule, somebody has to fall and I think it's going to be the visiting Cornhuskers, who just lost a tough one, by two at Maryland Wednesday night. Iowa had a far tougher time in its last game, losing by 16, but they were also at Purdue. The Hawkeyes are still 8-1 here in Iowa City while all three Nebraska losses this season have taken place outside of Lincoln. The Cornhuskers are 0-2 SU on the Big 10 road so far with another loss occurring at Minnesota last month. Iowa likely remembers losing by double digits last year in Lincoln, so this is a revenge game for them. They're also off to an 0-3 start in Big 10 play, but considering they had to play Purdue, Michigan State and Wisconsin (two of them on the road), the record really isn't that shocking. But the record also puts them in full on "desperation mode" Sunday. All things considered, not sure Nebraska should be favored on the road in this spot. Play on IOWA. 

AAA

This is a *10* play on the BULLS

The 19-21 Nets have played surprisingly well of late and have even risen to the 8th spot in the Eastern Conference. Since December 7th, their record is 11-3 straight up and 10-4 against the spread. This despite still being without top scorer Caris LeVert. I do expect this team to start cooling down though. Despite all the success, which includes a road win over Memphis Friday night, Brooklyn still isn't a very good road team. They're below .500 on the road for the season, so coming in as a favorite seems shaky, even though they're 2-0 ATS YTD in the role of road chalk. One of those wins/covers came here on Chicago on 12/19, but the win was by only three points and the Bulls have started to play better since then for interim coach Jim Boylan, at least on the defensive end. Chicago also recently got back two starters, Kris Dunn and Lauri Markkanen, back from injuries. They'll be out for revenge here and should get it. The Bulls are looking to avoid a winless three-game homestand here and have lost three in a row overall. But they are 8-3 ATS this season off 3+ SU losses and just took a very good Indiana team to overtime Friday. LeVert isn't the only player missing for the Nets; they're also without Allen Crabbe and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. Play on CHICAGO

AAA

This is a 10* play on Xavier.

While yesterday's early "ASSASSIN" was on a favorite from the Big East (Butler over Creighton), today we're going to be looking at an underdog as 9-6 Xavier travels to 11-3 Marquette. The host Golden Eagles come in ranked #16 in the country and have some nice wins this year. They've beaten the likes of Louisville, Kansas State and Wisconsin, plus they ended the unbeaten run of Buffalo to start the year in emphatic fashion (won that game 103-85). But playing just their 2nd true road game this season, they failed again mightily on New Year's Day, losing by 20 at St. John's. Their only other true road game was a 23 point loss at Indiana. They're back at home tonight, but Xavier won't be lacking for any motivation here as they just lost outright as a favorite to Seton Hall on Wednesday. The Musketeers are 1-3 ATS the L4 games, failing to cover all three times they were favored. But they won outright the one time they were a dog, at DePaul. Xavier won both meetings with Marquette last season. Expect a close battle today in the Big East. Play on XAVIER. 

AAA

This is a 10* play on PEPPERDINE

Normally, when a team just pulled an upset (like Pepperdine did Thursday), they are the ones prone for a letdown in their next game. But I don't think that will be the case here. Because their opponent (San Francisco) is off a win that was perhaps the program's biggest in some time. The Dons downed St. Mary's Thursday for the right to be called the WCC's 2nd best team (behind Gonzaga obviously), at least temporarily. While they did lead that game most of the time, it took a couple of key defensive stops in the final minute to preserve what ended up being just a four-point win at home. Pepperdine had no problems handling Loyola Marymount (probably the 4th best WCC team) two nights ago in this gym, winning 77-62 as a slight home dog. As I wrote two days ago, the Waves are a significantly better team at home. They average 86.1 points here. No wonder why they are 4-0 ATS in home games this season. Averaging as many points as they do, Pepperdine is once again a live dog Saturday night. Play on PEPPERDINE.

AAA

This is an 8* play on BUTLER.

I'm gonna side with Butler in this early Saturday tip as the situation sets up quite well for them. The Bulldogs (9-5) lost their Big East opener, right here at home, earlier this week. It was to Georgetown, 84-76, and considering Butler was a 9.5-point choice at the betting window, it's fair to call that a "bad" loss. They get a second chance at home today though against a Creighton team playing its second straight game on the road. The Bluejays were victorious in their first conference game, 79-68 at Providence, as 2.5-point dogs. But I can't see them opening Big East play with two straight road wins, not with the way they play defense (or rather DON'T play defense). Creighton has played six games this year off-campus. They've allowed an average of 79.5 points per game in them. Last year, they surrendered 93 points in this building and lost by 23. Sure they come into Saturday riding a three-game win streak, but two of those were against cupcakes. Butler had not lost a home game before running into Georgetown on Wednesday. Will they shoot only 41% at home again here? Probably not. Creighton is only 7-18 ATS the last 25 times it has been listed as the underdog. Play on BUTLER.

AAA

This is a *10* play on Eastern Michigan

Buffalo has been a really nice story so far, starting the year 12-1. Their only loss came on the road to a very good Marquette team and that result came on the heels of the Bulls winning at Syracuse. Well, they're still on the road here for the Mid-American Conference opener. This will be UB's 4th straight road game, a tough ask for any team, but particularly when it's around the New Year. The Bulls only played two home games in December, the last one coming on the 15th. They did just win at Canisius Saturday, barely covering the spread as well. But I think they're going to find things a lot tougher here tonight in Ypsilanti where Eastern Michigan will be ready for its biggest home game of the conference schedule. The Eagles just played Kansas last weekend, so they won't be intimidated by the Bulls. I realize that EMU has failed to cover in all six of its chances as an underdog, but this is the most points they've gotten at home where they're 6-2 straight up. This is a team that played not only Kansas, but Duke as well.  Play on EASTERN MICHIGAN

AAA

This is a 10* play on the Bulls 

The 10-28 Bulls are having a tough season, but I like them plus the points tonight at home vs. Indiana. The Pacers (25-12) are starting a five-game road trip here and likely have their eyes on a much bigger game Sunday in Toronto. That'll be a revenge spot for a game they lost up in Canada back on December 19th. Indiana might be 12-2 its last 14 games and 5-0 the last 5, but they've actually struggled some with the Bulls this year. In two meetings, they've won by only six and two points and failed to cover the spread both times. Chicago certainly didn't play well here at home Wednesday night, losing big to Orlando. But they just made a trade and the players should come out pretty motivated tonight. The Pacers are just 1-4 ATS their last five visits to the Windy City and they are also 1-4 ATS their last five games against teams with a win percentage below .400. Play on CHICAGO

AAA

This is a 10* play on Golden State (10*)

A rematch of last year's Western Conference Finals takes place Thursday night on TNT. But needless to say, neither the Rockets nor Warriors are sitting as pretty right now as they were last season. Golden State (25-13 SU) isn't running away with things as per usual and Houston (21-15 SU) has already lost nearly the same number of games as they did all of last year (17). But both have shown recent signs of turning things around. The Rockets have suffered just one loss in the last 11 games and it was by two, on the road, in the second night of a back to back. They've won and covered five straight games. But the Warriors just turned it two straight double digit road wins and there's a reason this spread is so high. Right now, they are as healthy as they've been all season. They certainly weren't healthy the last time they played Houston as both Steph Curry and Draymond Green sat. The result was getting blown out by 21 on the road. Look for them to get a measure of revenge at home as this time its the Rockets that are short-handed (no Chris Paul). Golden State won its last game 132-109 and is 4-0 ATS this year after scoring at least 130 points. Play on GOLDEN STATE.

AAA

This is an 8* play on Pepperdine

At 12-2 straight up, Loyola Marymount has been a real surprise team so far. But the Lions didn't exactly play the most challenging of non-conference schedules. UCLA, who just had to fire Steve Alford because things got so dire in Westwood, even beat LMU 82-58 back on December 2nd. The Lions other loss came in their last road game, as nine-point favorites, at UC Riverside. They got back into the win column with a home win over UC Davis last Saturday, but I still think they're a pretty shaky favorite tonight at Pepperdine (7-7 SU) who just hit triple digits in its last game. The Waves were coming off a winless road trip before crushing Alabama A&M Monday, but are now 5-1 at home. They average 87.7 points per game here. Loyola Marymount, in its seven games away from home this year, has averaged just 63.7 points per game. So you can see why I'm skeptical of them. The Lions do play good defense, but they are 1-7 ATS their last eight times as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Play on PEPPERDINE 

AAA

This is a 10* play on UNLV. 

UNLV is treading water at .500 (6-6 SU) to start the season, but I don't anticipate the Runnin' Rebels having much trouble in their conference opener tonight. They'll welcome Colorado State to Sin City and the 5-8 Rams are having a lot of trouble winning games recently. They've lost three in a row including a 20-point setback at the hands of New Mexico State on Sunday. That was also CSU's seventh loss in its last eight tries. They've covered only 3 of 10 lined games so far and have dropped both true road games, at Colorado and at Long Beach State. UNLV has been off since Christmas, which unfortunately wasn't very merry for them as they went 1-2 out in Hawaii, including a 25-point loss at the hands of Bucknell. Tonight will actually be the first time the Rebels have gotten to play at the Thomas & Mack Center since hanging tough with a good Cincinnati squad back on December 1st. They should be rested and ready to go and I look for a big win to start the New Year! Play on UNLV

AAA

This is a 10* play on the PISTONS.

The Pistons (16-19 SU) have lost three in a row (all on the road) and now finish the road trip in Memphis Wednesday night. This is the second night of a back to back for Detroit, who was beaten badly yesterday in Milwaukee (lost 121-98). Lucky for them though, the Grizzlies (18-18 SU) aren't playing a whole lot better right now as they've lost seven of nine and covered the spread only once during that time. That hardly makes them a tantalizing favorite, so taking the points here seems like a logical maneuver even though the Pistons are playing without rest. So far this year, Detroit has gone 2-1 ATS in the second game of a back to back. Because last night's game wasn't close, Andre Drummond saw limited playing time and that bodes well for tonight. Detroit is just 3-14 its last 17 games against Memphis, which seems odd as I don't see the Grizzlies as being a substantially better team. I'll take the points here as the Pistons at least keep it close and certainly are capable of winning the game outright. Play on DETROIT

AAA

This is a 10* play on Sacramento.

The 19-17 Kings host the 21-16 Blazers here. Sacramento has been flying under the radar this year and the end result has been one of the better ATS records in the league (21-15). They definitely have their issues playing defense, but just split a home and home with the Lakers and have won three straight home games overall. Portland has struggled on the road this year, going 7-10 straight up. That includes a 5-10 record when priced as the underdog. They too have defensive issues; namely on the road where they give up 114.1 points per game, which is way more than they allow at home. I think most will be surprised to see the Blazers as such a short favorite here, but don't be one of those who falls for the oddsmakers "trap."  They're not going to play anywhere near as well as they did Saturday at home against Philadelphia (who was playing without Joel Embiid). Play on SACRAMENTO 

AAA

This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Golden State Warriors.

We had a play on the Blazers on Thursday night in their upset win at Golden State, but we think the defending champs will risk life and limb to get back into the winners circle tonight. The Warriors are healthy and they have no excuses right now, other than they aren’t playing fantastic and they’re running into some determined competition. But enough is enough. Clearly the Warriors possess the talent and experience to annihilate any team off the face of the planet at any given time. The Blazers are tough at home, but we think that they’re in the wrong place at the wrong time here. Note that the WARRIORS are already 3-1 ATS this year after allowing 105 points or more in three straight games, while the Blazers are still just 7-10 ATS as an underdog this season. Lay the points, this one has blowout written all over it.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* EXPRESS on the Charlotte Hornets.

Two hungry teams collide on Friday night, but we think that the home court advantage will prove crucial in this matchup. This is the conclusion of a home and home set in which the Nets took the first one 134-132 in double OT. Brooklyn has been playing amazing of late having won nine of ten, but we absolutely believe this now sets up as a classic letdown spot after the epic double OT win at home. The Hornets on the other hand come in on the other end of the spectrum with two straight losses and back below .500. Charlotte is the “hungrier” team by far. Additionally note that Brooklyn is a poor 3-4 ATS already this year after a win by six points or less, while the HORNETS are already 10-3 ATS this year after having lost two of their last three games. Lay the points and expect a complete blowout.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Youngstown State.

This is each team’s Horizon League Opener. Detroit enters off a 69-55 road loss to Xavier, while the Penguins fell 75-56 at Ohio State. Detroit has lost six straight. It’s 1-7 on the road. The Titans are averaging 68.3 PPG and allowing 78.2. Youngstown State hasn’t played since December 18th. Overall Youngstown State averages 76.4 PPG, while allowing 81.6. Note that the Penguins are 7-2 ATS in their last nine when playing with ten or more days rest, while Detroit is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 vs. a team with a losing record. Look for the rested PENGUINS to pull away down the stretch.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Portland Trailblazers.

The Blazers will be hungry for a bounce back performances here after getting crushed 117-96 in Utah on Tuesday. A date vs. the Warriors is just what the doctor ordered, as the defending champs have never looked more “beatable” than they do now after their poor 127-101 loss to the Lakers on Monday. Note that this is a revenge game as well for Portland after it fell 125-97 here last month in the only other matchup of the year. The Blazers average 111 points and they allow 110.9. The Warriors average 115.6 PPG and they allow 112. Note that Portland is already 10-6 ATS this year trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent, while Golden State is just 4-9 ATS this season as a home favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range. Play on the TRAILBLAZERS.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL BEATDOWN on the Utah Jazz.

Portland has won four of five, but we think it’ll stumble here in this difficult road venue on X-Mas night. The Jazz had won two in a row before a loss in OKC on Saturday. The Jazz already demolished the Blazers by 30 points on Friday and they’ll be looking for a repeat performance here. Additionally note that Utah is 4-1 ATS in its last five at home and 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven following a loss, while Portland is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight on the road. Lay the points; play on the JAZZ.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Colorado.

We’re banking on a blowout from start to finish. This is the consolation game at the Stan Sherrif Center in Honolulu. Colorado went to Hawaii on six-game win streak, but it’s lost two straight in this tournament. Charlotte has lost five of its last six after falling to Rhode Island most recently. Note though that Colorado is 3-1 ATS in its last four off an upset loss as a favorite. This one has blowout written all over it; play on COLORADO.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on the New York Knicks.

We’re not calling for the outright victory, but this one is going to be much closer battle that what this spread would suggest in our opinion. The Bucks look susceptible to us after their 94-87 road loss to Miami on Saturday, while New York will be hungry to get back on track after a 114-107 loss to the Hawks on Friday. Note that the teams have already split a pair of games this year as well. Additionally note that Milwaukee is already a poor 2-4 ATS this year when playing with two days rest and only 3-7 ATS this season as a road favorite, while New York is already 4-1 ATS this year as a home dog in the 6.5 to 12 points range. Grab the points; play on the KNICKS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on UC Davis.

The UC Davis Aggies are 3-7 and the Arizona Wildcats are 8-4. We’re not predicting an outright upset, but we think the home side gets caught looking past its lowly non-conference opponent. The Aggies come in off an 83-65 home win over NAIA program William Jessup last weekend, wile Arizona smashed Montana 61-42 in its most recent action. UC Davis struggles offensively, averaging only 60.8 PPG, but it’s “decent” defensively in allowing 68.2. The Wildcats average 74.3 PPG and they allow 65.3. Note though that CAL DAVIS is still 18-10 ATS in its last 28 after failing to cover the spread in its previous outing, while Arizona is only 1-7 ATS in its last eight as a home favorite in the 15.5 to 18 points range. Grab the points.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* RED DRAGON on MTSU.

Ole Miss comes in complacent here after five straight wins in our opinion. The Blue Raiders are by far the “hungrier” side, because after starting 3-1, MTSU has lost seven straight. We’re not calling for the outright upset, but the conditions are certainly right for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. The Blue Raiders have issues, but one has been their difficult non-conference schedule. This one is no different, but at least the Blue Raiders are in friendly confines. Note as well that Ole Miss is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after two straight victories by ten points or more, while MTSU is still 4-2 ATS in its last six vs. the SEC; grab the points.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* MID-MAJOR BLOWOUT on LBSU.

Pepperdine comes in off an 82-67 loss to Oregon State, while LBSU lost 74-68 to Pacific in its latest contest. Last year LBSU won this game on the road 78-71. The Waves though have already dropped all four of their true road games this year and we think they’re going to struggle here against this equally as hungry/desperate home side. Overall Pepperdine averages 79.2 PPG, while allowing an average of 76.8. LBSU has averaged 71.1 PPG in the early going, while allowing 79.2. We’d argue though that the 49ers have played the stiffer competition to this point. Additionally note that LBSU is 5-1 ATS in its last six following a SU loss and interestingly 22-8 ATS in its last 30 vs. the West Coast Conference, while Pepperdine is just 5-15-1 TS in its last 21 vs. teams with a losing record. Play on LBSU.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Western Kentucky.

WKU comes in as the “hungrier” team at 5-5. Belmont enters complacent at 8-1. The Hilltoppers are out to atone for a terrible 87-81 loss to Troy as a ten point fav in their last outing. Overall WKU averages 72.8 PPG. Belmont is averaging 90.6 PPG and overall the Bruins have looked good on both ends of the floor. But we’ll caution in reading too much into their early numbers, which are skewed in our opinion due to the level of competition to this point. Note as well that WKU is 8-2 ATS in its last ten after a loss by six points or less, while Belmont is already 0-2 ATS this season following a road victory. Grab the points; play on WESTERN KENTUCKY.

AAA Sports