This is a 10* play on the Detroit Pistons. 

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based primarily on strong and relevant ATS statistics:

As note that Houston is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after three or more consecutive ATS victories, while Detroit is 22-7 ATS in its last 29 off an upset loss as a favorite.

The bottom line: Look for the desperate home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on DETROIT.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* COAST-TO-COAST EXPRESS on the Milwaukee Bucks.

REASONING: Obviously the Golden State Warriors are an awesome team and barring a major upset, they’ll be back in the finals as the Western Conference representative. Golden State comes to Milwaukee on a five-game win streak, including a 20-point victory in Boston just last night. The Bucks come into this one on the other end of the spectrum, having lost two in a row and four of their last five. Milwaukee will be especially motivated after scoring just 25 second-half points against Miami in its latest setback. A couple of players that continues to shine for the Bucks are Giannis Antetkounmpo and Jabari Parker. Antetokounmpo is averaging career highs in points (21.1), boards (8.7), assists (5.4), blocks (2.2) and steals (1.7) per game, while Parker is averaging 20.8 points in eight games this month. Note that the Warriors are just 33-37 ATS in their last 70 non-conference games, while Milwaukee is already 4-2 ATS this year vs. poor defensive teams which allow 99-plus points per contest. The Bucks upset the Warriors outright last year, but we’re going to recommend grabbing the points. Play on MILWAUKEE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Miami Heat.

REASONING: Miami is in the midst of its first six-game losing streak since 2008 and will clearly be playing with desperation tonight as it looks to get off the schneid. The Heat are struggling and are injured, but face the perfect opponent to get untracked against as the Bucks come to town tired after last night’s deflating 107-100 loss at home to Atlanta. Miami will be without the services of guard Goran Dragic and of big man Justise Winslow. Milwaukee has struggled with consistency in these spots though, already 0-2 ATS this year when playing on back-to-back days. And note that Miami is 9-6 ATS in its last 15 after three or more consecutive SU losses, including 2-1 ATS this season. A great situational pick, play on the HEAT.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* SIDE OF THE MONTH on Long Beach State.

REASONING: LBSU comes in battle tested already as it faces its second straight ranked opponent in the third game of the team’s opening road trip in No. 12 Louisville. Keep your eyes on Gabe Levin, who has played well for LBSU to open the season, leading the way in both scoring and rebounding through three games. LBSU received 19 of 23 first-place votes as the favorite to win the Big West Conference in 2016/17 as picked by the media panel in the Preseason. LBSU has four starters returning from last year and a ton of talent which we think can catch the Cardinals a bit off guard. Louisville gets ready to play its third straight home game, most recently clobbering William & Mary 91-58. Through the first two games, four players have averaged double figures. Note though that LBSU is 3-1 ATS in its last four after back-to-back SU/ATS losses, while Louisville is just 2-4 ATS in its last six after back-to-back SU/ATS victories. Grab as many points as you can, play on LONG BEACH STATE.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* play on the Oklahoma City Thunder.

REASONING: Desperation breeds motivation. After losing four straight, we’re expecting the hungry Thunder to find a way to get the job done tonight. Most recently OKC fell to Detroit on the second game of a back-to-back. Houston comes in off an easy 115-88 win over the 76ers, but with a game at home against Portland tomorrow night, we think the visitors get caught looking ahead to that one. It’s all hands on deck for OKC tonight as it looks to break the slide and with games at home against Brooklyn and Indiana over the weekend, there won’t be any “looking ahead” for the Thunder. Also note that Houston is just 10-12 ATS in its last 22 as a road dog of three points or less, while OKC is 3-2 ATS this season vs. good offensive teams which score 99-plus points per contest and already 2-0 ATS following a loss by ten points or more. Play on the THUNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE SIDE OF THE MONTH on the Portland Trailblazers.

REASONING: The Bulls haven’t played since Saturday’s 116-105 win over the Wizards, while Portland edged Denver 112-105 on Sunday night. From a scheduling stand point, this one sets up perfectly for the Blazers, as this is the start of a tough Western Conference road swing for the Bulls, with a game at Utah on Thursday night, before then visiting the Clippers, Lakers and Nuggets over the next week and a half. We think Chicago gets caught looking ahead and comes out a bit flat in this one. Portland on other hand plays the final game of a short three-game home stand before embarking on a long Eastern Conference road swing, putting added emphasis onto this contest. Note that Chicago is 7-9 ATS in its last 16 as a road dog of 3 points or less and just 18-20 ATS in its last 38 after a win by ten points or more, while Portland is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a home fav of 3 point or less. Lay the points, play on the BLAZERS.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* WEST-COAST EXPRESS on the Memphis Grizzlies.

REASONING: Desperation breeds motivation and success often leads to complaceny. It’ll be all hands on deck for Memphis as it looks to break out of a sluggish stretch, while Utah is poised for a big letdown after a recent turnaround in play. The Jazz return home for their first game after a successul eastern road swing with a 4-1 mark, capped off with a very satisfying 102-91 win over the Heat on Saturday. Memphis is averaging just 97 PPG, ranked last in the Western Conference. Most recently Memphis comes in off a 106-96 setback to the Bucks on Saturday. Note though that Memphis is 31-19 ATS in its last 40 after allowing 104 points or more, including 2-1 ATS this season, while Utah is just 2-3 ATS in its last five following a win by ten points or more. Grab the points, play on the GRIZZLIES.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SUPER PLAY on Montana.

REASONING: Montana comes in off a hard-fought 75-61 road loss to USC, but now looks to bounce back big in front of the home town crowd. Ahmaad Rorie had to watch last season from the sidelines, sitting out a redshirt year after transferring to Montana from Oregon, but he would lead the way for the Grizzlies in this one with 21 points, 15 of which came in the first half. Wyoming comes in off an easy 88-49 home win over Western State, but now faces its first true test of the season. We think the book is still out on the Cowboys, while the Grizzlies have already proven they can play with the best in the nation. And note that Wyoming is just 10-14 ATS in its last 14 on the road, while Montana is 4-2 ATS its last six at home. A great situational play, lay the points on the GRIZZLIES.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* play on the Houston Rockets.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based on strong and relevant ATS statistics and common sense:

As note that San Antonio has struggled in this spot for bettors for a while now, going just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 as a road fav of three points or less, while Houston is 6-2 ATS in its last eight as a home dog of three points or less (it’s also 19-9 ATS in its last 28 when playing with two days of rest).

The bottom line: Houston shocked the Spurs with an outright victory on their own floor just last week, but we think the visitors come in tired this evening after their win at home over the Pistons just last night. Look for HOUSTON to push the pace and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. 

AAA Sports

This is a 10* play on the Minnesota Timberwolves.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based on strong and relevant ATS statistics and common sense:

As note that LA is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after three or more consecutive SU wins, while Minnesota is already 2-1 ATS this year after allowing 105 points or more. 

The bottom line: LA comes to town off a hard-fought 110-108 win in Oklahoma City just last night. The Clippers have been on an absolute tear, they’re 8-1 overall (7-2 ATS), but we think they’re finally set up for a letdown tonight against this energized Wolves team. Minnesota has had two nights off since handling the Magic 123-107, and we’re expecting it to carry that momentum and confidence over into this one. While the outright win isn’t out of the question obviously, we’re going to recommend grabbing the points. Play on MINNESOTA.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BIG TIGER on Indiana.

REASONING: Both teams will have a bunch of fans in the stands tonight, note that this one is being played on a neutral court in Hawaii. The Hoosiers were 27-8 last year and made it to the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tourney before falling 101-86 to NC. Kansas was 33-5 and made it to the Elite Eight before falling 64-59 to Villanova. Indiana had a big hole to fill in replacing PG Yogi Ferrell, but the team is hopeful that Pittsburgh transfer Josh Newkirk will answer the call. Also keep your eyes on James Blackmon Jr., who averaged 15.8 PPG last year. Last season Indiana ranked 11th in the country in scoring at 82.6 PPG. The Hoosiers were poor defensively, but did turn things around come tournament time. The Jayhawks have won the Big 12 title 12 years in a row. Kansas also lost some talent from last year, as Perry Ellis and Wayne Selden are gone. Frank Mason will be leaned upon heavily by the Jayhawk this season, he averaged 12.9 PPG. Last year Kansas was 16th in scoring at 81.3 PPG. Defensively they were ranked 71st int he country in allowing 67.6 PPG. Kansas may find a way to win this game outright, but we think the talent on Indiana can match pace with the high-powered Jayhawks until the final moments. Grab the points, play on the HOOSIERS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the New Orleans Pelicans.

REASONING: New Orleans is going to win a game one day. And today may be the day! While we’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, we do think that the desperation levels in which the visitors play with today will take this one down to the wire at the very least. Pelicans’ center Anthony Davis is fourth in the NBA with an average of 30.9 PPG and among the leaders in rebounds, steals, blocks and double-doubles. The Pelicans come to town off a 102-94 setback at Sacramento on Tuesday. Milwaukee on the other hand is primed for a letdown here after its three game win streak was snapped in an ugly 86-75 OT loss to Dallas on Sunday. The Bucks have been playing sloppy this year as they’re allowing 18.1 PPG on 16.1 turnovers. Note that the visitors also play with “revenge” tonight after falling 117-113 at home earlier in the month. And note that New Orleans is 20-17 ATS in its last 37 in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent, while Milwaukee is just 7-10 ATS in its last 17 as a home fav in the 3.5 to six points range. Grab as many points as you can, play on NEW ORLEANS.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the New Orleans Pelicans.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based on strong and relevant ATS statistics:

As note that New Orleans is 7-4 ATS in its last 11 as a road dog of 12.5 poitns or more and 19-12 ATS in its last 31 following an upset loss as a favorite, while Golden State is just 21-24 ATS in its last 45 as a home fav of 12.5 point or more and already 0-3 ATS against teams with losing records.

The bottom line: The Pelicans are 0-6. Clearly they are going to be in a foul mood today and while we’re not going to predict a crazy outright upset, we do definitely feel that the visitors can keep this one competitive. Grab the points.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE SIDE OF THE MONTH on the Washington Wizards.

REASONING: We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based on common sense: Washington is 0-3 SU/ATS. Atlanta is 3-1 SU/ATS. The Wizards lost to the Hawks in Atlanta 114-99 on Opening Night, so play with the very real “revenge” factor tonight as well. As primarily a “situationally based” handicapping service, these are exactly the types of contests that we’re constantly on the look out for. And note that Atlanta is just 7-9 ATS in its last 16 as a road dog of three points or less, while Washington is 3-1 ATS in its last four after three or more consecutive SU losses. Play on the WIZARDS.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the LA Clippers

REASONING: We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based on strong and relevant ATS statistics, as well as common sense:

Note that OKC is just 10-17 ATS in its last 27 when playing with two days rest, while LA is 14-9 ATS in its last 23 as a home fav in the 6.5 to nine points range.

The bottom line: Russell Westbrook has a date in Golden State tomorrow night and we think the Thunder guard gets caught looking ahead to that one. Look for the red hot CLIPPERS to come in focused on the task at hand and to pull away down the stretch for the convincing victory. 

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the Boston Celtics.

REASONING: We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based on primarily on strong and relevant ATS statistics, as well as common sense:

Note that Chicago is just 7-14 ATS in its last 21 as a road dog in the 3.5 to 6 points range, while Boston is 57-38 ATS the last two seasons in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent.

The bottom line: These teams played just last week and the Bulls took the home victory. It’s payback time for the Celtics, who continue to get healthier after the first few games of the season. Prime letdown spot for 3-0 Chicago, look for the home side to ride the wave of momentum and to pull away down the stretch. Play on BOSTON.

AAA Sport

This is a 10* SHOCKER OF THE WEEK on the Minnesota Timberwovles.

REASONING: This play is based on a couple of simple factors. The Wolves are winless to start the year and had early double-digit leads evaporate in both setbacks. This is the team’s first home game and clearly Minnesota will be looking to put together a full four quarter effort. The Wolves also play with immediate revenge, as they’d fall in Memphis on Opening Night. The Grizzlies bounced back from a loss in New York to beat the Wizards at home in the second game of the back to back, but the team expended a bunch of energy in securing the OT victory. It’s a perfect set of situational circumstances all coming together for this one selection. Also note that Memphis is just 41-48 ATS in its last 89 on the road, while Minnesota is 3-1 ATS in its last four against teams with winning records. Lay the points, play on MINNESOTA.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the Washington Wizards.

REASONING: We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

Other times we feel a more “common sense” approach is the best way to handicap a contest, and that’s definitely the case here. The Grizzlies come in off a deflating 111-104 loss at New York just last night, while the Wizards have been off for two nights to refocus after falling 114-99 to Atlanta in their opener. It’s a great scheduling and situational scenario to take advantage of and also note that the Wizards are 16-12 ATS in their last 28 when playing with two days of rest, while the Grizzlies are just 28-30 ATS in their last 58 following a non-conference contest. Play on WASHINGTON.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the Oklahoma City Thunder.

REASONING: The Lakers beat the Rockets at home on opening night, but then predictably came out flat in a 96-89 setback to the Jazz two nights later. LA has covered the spread in both games, but we think it’s going to have a hard time matching pace with the surging Thunder. OKC played from behind the entire night, but would end up pulling away in OT to beat the Suns 113-110 last time out. Russell Westbrook scored 51 points, grabbed 13 boards and dished out ten assists. Clearly OKC will be looking to get more people involved:“"Overall, we've gotta get more people involved," Thunder head coach Billy Donovan said. "We've gotta be able to utilize our big guys better and pound the ball inside." OKC has a major size advantage in the paint tonight and we think that this will prove to be the differnce in the end. Note that LA is just 8-12 ATS in its last 20 as a road dog in the 6.5 to 9 points range, while OKC is 3-1 ATS in its last four after scoring 105 points or more. Lay the points, play on the THUNDER.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the Utah Jazz.

REASONING: The Jazz are 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS to open the year. LA is 1-0 SU/ATS after handling the Blazers on opening night. We think that Utah can catch the Clippers a bit complacent here and keep this one competitive down to the wire. LA plays Phoenix tomorrow night and it has to be feeling content after beating Portland, a team which knocked it out of the first round of the playoffs last year. Utah comes in with momentum after handling the upstart Lakers 96-89 on Friday. George Hill led the way in that one with 23 points. Derrick Favors also had a big game with 15 points and 11 boards in 20 minutes off the bench. Note that Utah is 6-2 ATS in its last eight as a road dog in the 6.5 to nine 9 points range and interestingly, 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games played on a Sunday, while LA is just 41-50 ATS in its last 91 at home and just 12-14 ATS in its last 26 Sunday contests. Play on UTAH.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* EAST-COAST EXPRESS on the Milwaukee Bucks.

Reasoning: We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

Other times though we feel that a more “common sense” approach is the best way to handicap a contest. And that’s the case here as Brooklyn is coming off a game just last night at home against the Pacers, while the Bucks have had two days off to refocus after a 107-96 setback to the Hornets in their opener. Lay the points, play on MILWAUKEE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SUPER BLOWOUT on the Houston Rockets.

REASONING: As we saw last night, anything can happen in the NBA on any given night. We had a play on Golden State and it looked completely out of sorts in its blowout loss at home to the San Antonio Spurs. With all of that said though, we’re not expecting a big upset tonight and think the much deeper and talented Rockets will take advantage of this favorable matchup. LA is in a rebuild this year, as Kobe Bryant is gone and Luke Walton is now head coach. Walton will have his hands full with yount talent D’Angelo Russell, Jordan Clarkson, Julius Randle, Larry Nance Jr. and No. 2 pick Brandon Ingram. Walton will be leaning heavily on his vets, Luol Deng, Lou Williams, Timofey Mozgov and Jose Calderon. James Harden leads the Rockets, he was the league’s second-leading scorer at 29 PPG last year. Note that Houston finished 5-2 in the preseason. In addition to Harden, keep your eyes on veterans Ryan Anderson, Eric Gordon and Trevor Ariza. Lay the points, play on HOUSTON.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* ATS DESTRUCTION on the Golden State Warriors. 

REASONING: When it comes to “Against The Spread Sports,” ie: basketball and football, we’ve often found that we need a couple of weeks to really get a “feel” for the team’s and as such, we’ll be playing it a bit conservative to open the 2016/17 NBA campaign. We are primarily a “situationally based” handicapping service, but because the team’s haven’t even played a single game yet, we’re using a more common sense approach on Opening Night. All eyes in the basketball World have been on Golden State after Kevin Durant moved over from OKC and we think the team will be looking to make a statement this evening. The Warriors looked great in the preseason, so chemistry isn’t going to be an issue whatsoever. San Antonio has more chemistry issues to worry about than the talented super stars on Golden State, with veterans like Pau Gasol added into the Spurs’ lineup. We’re dipping our toes into the water to open the season and simply feel that GOLDEN STATE will be playing with a massive chip on its shoulder which we believe will result in a lop-sided final outcome once it’s all said and done.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* SIDE OF THE MONTH on the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Handicapping a series is much like coaching one, you have to make necessary adjustments from game-to-game. We think the Cavaliers are the way to go in Game 1. Can LeBron James, along with a healthy Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving steal this one outright? Obviously it wouldn’t be a complete shocker if the Cavs pulled off the series opening straight-up upset. In fact, James won Games 1 and 3, before succumbing in six to the Warriors in last year’s Finals. We feel this is a great situational play as Golden State comes into the Finals tired and injured, while for the most part it’s been a walk-in-the-park for Cleveland to this point. The Warriors have not been blowing teams out of the water in the postseason and were taken to the wire by the Oklahoma City Thunder, they’d become one of only three teams in NBA playoff history to claw back from a 3-1 deficit. How much gas is left in the tank for the defending champs after that series? And after setting the NBA record for regular season wins? There is no more “aura” of invincibility on their home floor. Cleveland on the other hand has given James plenty of rest throughout the regular season and in the playoffs and now “The King” is ready to do what he does best. Clearly James’ supporting cast is light-years better than it was last season. The Cavs are ready to play “small ball,” and they’re equipped to play in the paint as well. In a contest which we feel will come down to whichever team has the ball in its hands last, we’re going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the CAVALIERS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Golden State Warriors.

It’s been a back and forth series and here we are in Game 7. Golden State has reeled off two straight victories and now has a clear advantage in playing this decisive contest on its own floor. The Thunder have already won two games in Golden State, but we think Oklahoma City has a letdown here after failing to secure the series victory on its own floor in Game 6. The Thunder had a late collapse in the fourth quarter and Golden State, spurred by 41 total points from Klay Thompson, would use a 19-5 surge to seal the deal. We simply can’t see Golden State faltering here. The Thunder have completely exceeded everyone’s expectations and the combination of Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant is a formidable one, but the Warriors’ starters are just too good and we believe they’ll have their best game yet of the Western Conference Finals. Note that Oklahoma City is just 6-11 ATS this year off an upset loss as a favorite, while Golden State is 2-1 ATS this year off an upset win as an underdog. The NBA is going to get what it wanted, a rematch between Cleveland and the Warriors. Lay the points.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Toronto Raptors.

We played Toronto in Game 1 and after getting out to a quick 7-0 start, the Raptors would struggle the rest of the way, eventually getting blown out 115-84. Toronto has lost Game 1 of all three rounds to this point and has subsequently bounced back to earn the Game 2 victory in each. Can the Raptors regroup and pull off the massive upset in Game 2? Unlikely, but we think tonight’s affair will be much more competitive and expect the visitors to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what we feel to be an ample amount of points afforded to them. After back-to-back grueling seven game series victories, Toronto just couldn’t match pace with the rested Cavaliers in Game 1. The Raptors have responded well in this position, not just in the postseason, but all year long, going 13-8 ATS after allowing 105 points or more, while Cleveland is just 20-27 ATS this season after scoring 105 points or more. DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry have been consistently inconsistent in the playoffs, but look primed for a bounce back effort tonight after the poor showings in Game 1. Grab as many points as you can, play on TORONTO.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Oklahoma City Thunder.

We played the UNDER in Game 1, but will focus on the side in Game 2. OKC shocked the world with a stunning outright Game 1 victory and we think the visitors have a legitimate shot at doing it again on Wednesday night. Another upset may be asking too much, but clearly this is a deep Thunder team which comes in with a ton of confidence and momentum. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are unstoppable right now and we have a hard time seeing the Warriors slowing them down in Game 2 either. Momentum is a factor that is almost impossible to properly quantify into a line and we think the oddsmakers are way off in setting this one. Note that the Thunder are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games. The aura of invincibility surrounding the Warriors’ “home court advantage” is over and while we won’t in the end call for the outright upset, we do think OKC keeps this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Play on the THUNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Toronto Raptors.

Yes, Toronto is coming off a couple of grueling seven game series victories and will be without its starting center for at least a couple more games. Yes, Cleveland is well rested after dispatching its first two opponents in four games each and sports a healthy Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving in its line-up this year. We think this is a great situational wager though as we’re expecting “rest” to lead to “rust” and for the battle tested visitors to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Cleveland has had nine whole days off between series, while Toronto comes in firing on all cylinders, DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry have finally found their stroke and will be looking to build off that momentum. Jonas Valacuinas is a key part to Toronto’s offense, but Bizmak Biyombo has filled in admirably. Oklahoma City beat the Spurs in six games and not many gave it a chance in Game 1 of the West Conf Finals vs. the Warriors, but we all know how that one finished. We’re not going to call for an outright upset, but all signs do indeed point to the points as the savvy move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Oklahoma City Thunder.

It’s time to face reality, despite having all around specialist Kawhi Leonard and new comer LaMarcus Aldridge, the Spurs are an old team which have run out of gas. San Antonio’s vaunted defense has no answer for the Thunders’ Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook and OKC’s veterans and bench players are dominating their counterparts. Tony Parker and Tim Duncan having nothing left in the tank, while the Thunder are receiving big contributions from the likes of Serge Ibaka and Dion Waiters. Note that San Antonio is just 2-7 ATS this year when playing on one days rest, while Oklahoma City is 4-1 ATS in the same position. Why are the Spurs favored here? This is a horrible matchup as OKC’s athletes are running circles around the plodding and aging Spurs. Play on the THUNDER (and make sure to sprinkle a little on the money line as well!).

AAA Sports

This is an 8* EAST-COAST EXPRESS on the Toronto Raptors.

We think Toronto is going to play its best game of the series and look for it to jump out to an early lead, to keep the foot on the gas throughout and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. So far three games in this series have gone to OT. It’s obviously been evenly matched to this point, but as it wears on, we think that home floor will finally start to become a big advantage. Both teams are without their centers, which puts the focus on smaller lineups and guard play, which despite the 94-87 OT loss in Game 4, does in fact favor Toronto. Raptors’ guards DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry have struggled mightily in the playoffs, but there’s no reason not to think that they won’t play significantly better in front of the home town crowd tonight: “They're our two All-Stars and sooner or later they're going to come through or be a part of what we're trying to do. It's not like we're just going to bench Kyle and DeMar, and go away from them. They're our guys. We believe in them," Raptors’ coach Dwane Casey said. Miami got a huge boost from aging super star Dwayne Wade last time out, but surely he’s running out of gas at this point. Note that Miami is already just 1-2 ATS this year when tied in a playoff series, while Toronto is 2-1 ATS in the same position. Everything does indeed point to the RAPTORS as the savvy move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* EAST-COAST EXPRESS on the Indiana Pacers.

The Pacers will look to push this series to a Game 7 and while they may ultimately fall in Toronto, we look for the home side to take advantage of familiar surroundings and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The Pacers led by 15 late in the third quarter but somehow managed to lose 102-99 on Tuesday. It certainly wasn’t because of Paul George though, who had 39 points: “It's a desperation feeling," George said last night. "We'll give everything we have tomorrow night and make sure that that's enough." Toronto’s stars have struggled, Kyle Lowry is averaging 15.2 points and 31.4 percent shooting, while DeMar DeRozan, who had 34 points in Game 5, had averaged just 13.3 and 29.6 percent over the first four games of this series. The Raptors collapsed in a similar situation vs. the Nets two years ago, losing Game 6 on the road and then Game 7 at home. Note that Toronto is a horrible 4-11 ATS in its last 15 in the first round of the playoffs and just 15-18 ATS in its last 33 when playing with two days rest, while Indiana is 12-4 ATS this year when playing with two days of rest and 5-3 ATS in its last eight when trailing in a playoff series. We feel that home floor will prove to be pivotal tonight, play on the PACERS. 

AAA Sports

This is a 10* Opening Round RED DRAGON is on the Portland Trailblazers.

The Clippers may have taken four of the five regular season contests from the Blazers this year, but we think the visitors can at the very least keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Portland can score with anyone, it averaged 105.1 points on 45 percent shooting. It’s weakness is clearly on the defensive end where it allowed an average of 104.3. Damian Lillard leads the way for the Blazers with an average of 25.1 points and 6.8 assists, while CJ McCollum is averaging 20.8 points and 3.2 boards. LA averages 104.5 points on 46.5 percent shooting and gives up an average of 100.2 Chris Paul is the heart of the offense, he averages 19.5 points and ten assists, while Blake Griffin posted 21.4 points and 8.4 boards on average. Griffin though is still working his way back into game shape after missing most of the year with injury and suspension. And note that despite dropping four of five to the Clippers, the Blazers were very competitive, they enter this series having gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games played in Los Angeles. We wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset here, play on PORTLAND.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* Opening Round SIDE OF THE YEAR on the Toronto Raptors.

Toronto’s best season in franchise history isn’t going to mean much if it doesn’t contend for the Eastern Conference crown. We’re expecting the home side to make the most of familiar surroundings and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. It’s been back-to-back first round disappointment’s for Toronto, so we look for the home side to make Game 1 a statement. The Raptors were injured for most of the season last year, but are at 100% health heading into this year’s playoffs. Note that Toronto hasn’t lost more than two straight since mid-November: “I think we're in a better mental place," Raptors’ coach Dwane Casey assessed. "The confidence level is higher. Guys have accepted their roles much more. That's a huge difference. We're in a much better place defensively." This isn’t a matchup that favors the Pacers, evident by the fact that they dropped three of four in the season series. It’s also interesting to note that the Raptors shot an average of 35.3 free throws per game in four meetings with Indiana. We think there are enough situational factors working in favor of TORONTO to pull the trigger on a play of this magnitude.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Golden State Warriors.

Records were made to be broken. The 1995 Chicago Bulls 72 game win streak remains in tact, but the Warriors can match that with a victory tonight. To do that though, they’ll have to battle history, as they’ve lost 32 straight regular season games in San Antonio, which is trying to set some records of its own, including becoming the only team in league history to remain undefeated on its home floor for an entire regular season. Golden State played and won 100-99 in Memphis last night, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson got caught looking ahead to this one as the two normally sharp outside shooters went a combined 5 of 24 from behind the arc. Suffice it to say, we don’t expect that type of shooting performance to happen two times in a row and in a contest of this magnitude. The Spurs come in off a loss to the Nuggets, but the entire starting line-up was given the night off, so while it’s true that San Antonio comes into this one well rested, we’ll point out that San Antonio has in fact struggled in this spot for bettors this season, going 18-20 ATS vs. teams with winning records and only 11-20 ATS in its last 31 vs. poor defensive teams which allow 99-plus points per contest. Conversely, this is a spot in which the Warriors have dominated in for bettors all year, going 10-6 ATS in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent and 6-2 ATS after playing three consecutive road games. Grab as many points as you can as we look for this one to come down to the wire. Play on GOLDEN STATE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the Detroit Pistons.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based entirely on strong and relevant ATS statistics:

Note that Washington is just 7-12 ATS this year after a win by ten points or more and just 25-27 ATS vs. good offensive teams which average 99-plus points per contest, while Detroit is 10-7 ATS this season off an upset win as an underdog and 15-8 ATS in its last 23 in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent.

The bottom line: Home court advantage can’t be overlooked in this situation, all signs do indeed point to the PISTONS as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Atlanta Hawks.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based entirely on strong and relevant ATS statistics:

Note that Toronto is just just 15-16 ATS in its last 31 vs. good offensive teams which score 99-plus points per contest, while Atlanta is 17-10 ATS following a loss by ten points or more.

The bottom line: Toronto is stuck in the No. 2 spot in the East, while Atlanta is still fighting for playoff position. Atlanta also plays with double revenge. Play on the HAWKS.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* COAST-TO-COAST EXPRESS on the LA Lakers.

We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

For this selection, we’re keeping it simple.

This without a doubt sets up as a classic “letdown” spot for the visitors, who just finished ending Golden State’s 54 game regular season home win streak with a 109-106 stunner on Friday night. And with two whole days off before facing the 28-47 Pelicans at home, it’s not too hard to imagine the Celtics “looking past” LA today as well. Note that five of the first seven teams to beat Golden State would then go on to lose their next game. LA has had a few days off after upsetting the Heat and the Nick Young and Jordan D’Angelo fiasco has finally started to die down. The Lakers would beat the Celtics 112-104 on December 30 and while we won’t be so bold as to call for an outright upset tonight, we do think this one sets up beautfilly for the home side. Grab as many points as you can.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Oklahoma.

Oklahoma is a deep team, but it also sports arguably the best player in the nation in Buddy Hield. Villanova held Hield to just 18 points in the game these two played earlier in the season, but the Sooners still won in a blowout. Hield was 8 of 13 from behind the arc in Oklahoma’s 80-68 win over Oregon, the Sooners shot 12 of 24 from 3- point land overall vs. the Ducks. What often goes overlooked is the Sooners’ great defensive play, which would hold Oregon to just 38.9 percent shooting and 4 of 21 from 3-point land. Oklahoma holds teams to 40.5 percent overall shooting and just 33.1 percent from beyond the arc. Note that Hield is averaging 29.3 points per game shooting almost 57 percent from the field. The Sooners held Kris Jenkins, Josh Hart and Jalen Brunson to 1 of 16 from the 3-point range in the regular season beatdown. Villanova doesn’t have a bonafide super star like Hield, but instead gets the job done by committee. The Wildcats looked good defensively against KU, forcing 16 turnovers, but Villanova was just 4 of 18 from 3-point land. And that doesn’t bode well against the Sooners, who are among the best in defending the perimeter. Just like in last night’s CBI Game 3 finale, all signs point to another last-second nail-biting decision. While we obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on OKLAHOMA.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Morehead State.

Morehead State took Game 1 86-83, while Nevada bounced back at home 77-68 in Game 2. Both games have been highly competitive and each has been decided in the waning moments. We’re expecting another very tightly contested affair, one where whoever has the ball in their hands last will likely be the victor. The Wolfpack may have the higher scoring offense on average, but the Eagles are better defensively. Looking at these two teams side by side, there truly is little difference. This is a great situational play in our opinion, in what will prove to be another nail-biter, grab as many points as you can with MOREHEAD STATE.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BIG TIGER on the LA Lakers.

The Heat sit 6.5 games ahead of ninth-place Chicago with nine left in the regular season. Miami comes to town off a 110-99 win over Brooklyn on Monday, the team’s 11th victory out of it last 15. This is the final match-up between Dwayne Wade and Kobe Bryant. The Lakers will be out to avenge seven-straight losses in the series, including a 101-88 setback on November 10th and to also atone for a listless 123-75 loss at Utah on Monday, matching the team’s worst setback in franchise history and most lopsided of Bryant’s career. The Lakers have a lot to play for now too, they’re in danger of finishing with the fewest wins in franchise history, needing to win five of their final eight games to surpass the 19 wins from the 1957-58 team. Note that Miami is just 10-11 ATS this year after a win by ten points or more and only 10-11 ATS after scoring 105 points or more, while LA is 6-3 ATS this year after scoring 85 points or less and 16-12 ATS in all non-conference games. A great situational play, grab as many points as you can with the LAKERS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Utah Jazz.

Utah is coming together at the right time. It’s been very good defensively all season long, but it’s latest offensive performance has it thinking it could steal this game vs. the defending champions outright. The Jazz would make a franchise-best 17 3-pointers in a 123-75 destruction of the Lakers on Monday. Keep your eyes on Rodney Hood, who was eight of nine from behind the arc. The Jazz have averaged 10.7 3-pointers and have shot 40.4 precent from behind the arc during an 8-2 stretch which has earned it seventh in the Western Conference. Utah also plays with revenge here after dropping all three previous meetings with the Warriors this season. Golden State continues to roll, it’s coming off a 102-94 SU win and ATS loss vs. the Wizards just last night. Golden State’s energy and focus is surely starting to waiver at this point of the season and the weight of expectations continues to grow as the playoffs approach. It’s a perfect spot for the Jazz to take advantage of. All six of the Warriors’ losses this year have come in similar types of situations. And with five of its final eight games at home, it’s not too hard to imagine Golden State in some small way, looking ahead to that favorable season-ending schedule. Also note that Utah has been pretty effective in slowing down Steph Curry, holding him to an 18.0 scoring average and 39.1 field goal percentage for the series, his lowst mark vs. any team from the West. The Jazz have in fact been “lights-out” with their defensive play of late, giving up 88.2 points over their ten-game run, while just limiting the Lakers to just 30.6 percent shooting last time out. We think that UTAH comes to play tonight, grab as many points as you can.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BIG TIGER on the Chicago Bulls.

These two teams are moving in opposite directions, but as we always say: “desperation breeds motivation!” We think the value has swung back onto the hungry Bulls in this one. Chicago will be looking to avoid a season sweep at the hands of Atlanta, while also delaying the Hawks playoff spot, who would clinch one with a victory tonight. The Bulls are currently on the outside of the playoff picture looking in, sitting in ninth position: “I don't think anybody's quit," Chicago’s star guard Jimmy Butler said last night. "We've just hit adversity at the wrong time and we've got to fix it. It better carry over from in this locker room out to the court. That's the only way to get this thing fixed." And with seven of their next eight game vs. likely playoff bound clubs, tonight’s contest takes on added importance for the home side. For all intents and purposes, this has become a “do-or-die” game for the Bulls tonight. Note that Atlanta is just 3-4 ATS this year off an upset win as an underdog, while Chicago is 5-3 ATS after three or more consecutive SU losses. Play on the BULLS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the LA Clippers.

Denver has won three of four, while LA has dropped three of four. The Nuggets come in off a 116-105 win over the Lakers on Friday in which their bench scored a road season-high 71 points on 57.4 percent shooting. Suffice it to say, we’re not expecting lightning to strike twice for Denver tonight. Although the teams have split a pair of games this season, LA does play with revenge after a listless 87-81 setback last time out (note that it was the Nuggets first win in the last five in the series). LA does come in with a bit of momentum as well after it broke its three-game slide with a hard-fought 96-94 home win over Portland on Thursday. LA will also be eager to get back on track in front of the home town crowd, the team was 30-11 in friendly confines last year, but is 23-12 so far this season: "I think we've had a nice year on the road," coach Doc Rivers said, "but I don't think we've had a nice year at home.” Note that Denver is just 16-17 ATS this year after scoring 105 points or more, while LA is 8-3 ATS in trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent. Lay the points.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ELITE 8 GAME OF THE YEAR on Villanova.

Both teams have steamrolled their ways into the Elite 8, but Villanova has looked like the more complete units on both ends of the floor and while we obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for the Wildcats to at the very least, take this one down to the wire and sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Villanova ended up trouncing Miami 92-69 in the Sweet 16, while Kansas pulled away for a 77-63 victory over Maryland. The Wildcats average a few less points than the Jayhawks on the year (Villanova posts 77.9 PPG, while Kansas comes in a 82 PPG). Defensively though, Villanova has the upper hand, allowing just 63.8 PPG, ranking it 15th in the nation, compared to Kansas’ 67.9 points per game allowed, ranked 75th in the country. The Wildcats have turned up offensive pressure of late though, they’ve averaged 86 points or more in their three games in the NCAA Tourney and combined with their clearly superior defensive unit, all signs do indeed point to VILLANOVA as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BIG TIGER on the Cleveland Cavaliers.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based entirely on strong and relevant ATS statistics:

Note that Cleveland is 5-1 ATS in its last six after failing to cover the spread in five of its last six games, including in two straight, while New York is just 5-7 ATS this season after a win by ten points or more and only 8-9 ATS in its last 17 vs. teams with winning records.

The bottom line: This line has dropped since we took it (we have -8.5), but regardless, we still love this selection and are predicting a complete blowout. Cleveland comes in off a few shaky efforts, but gets back into the winners circle with a decisive effort over the lowly Knicks. Play on the CAVALIERS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Indiana.

Indiana is no joke, after destroying Chattanooga 99-74 in the opening round, it would go on to beat Kentucky 73-67 in the second. The Hoosiers have answered the call all year, after winning the Big 10 regular season title, but coming up short in the conference tournament, the team has responded big time and we fully expect this momentum to get carried over here. The Hoosiers are tough and they’re well balanced and are able to keep pace on both ends of the floor with anyone in the country. We think UNC is going to be in for a shock today in Indiana’s ability to take full control of a game and to dictate the pace at both ends of the court. UNC smashed FGCU and then hammered Providence 85-66 in the second round. UNC’s hopes rest on the shoulders of arguably the countries best frontcourt  in Brice Johnson and Justin Jackson. The Tar Heels like to push the pace of the game, but they are not going to be able to outrun the talented Hoosiers today and while we wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for INDIANA to at the very least take this one down to the wire and to sneak in through the backdoor down the stretch.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Duke.

The Blue Devils come into this one battle tested and ready to shock the No. 1 seeded Ducks. While we obviously wouldn’t be surprised by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for Duke to at the very least, take this one down to the wire and to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Duke beat No. 13 UNC-Wilmington 93-85 and the 12-seed Yale Bulldogs 71-64. Grayson Allen leads a team which averages 81.5 PPG on 46.1 percent shooting. The Blue Deivls are pretty average defensively though, allowing 72.2 PPG. The Ducks seem vulnerable in this spot and ripe for the picking. Oregon rolled over Holy Cross, 91-52 in its opener, but then was in a fight for its life in an eventual 69-64 win over St. Joe’s on Sunday. The Ducks average 78.9 PPG and allow 68.5. Duke averages nearly 3-points per game more and has looked much better defensively since the start of this Tournament. It’s hard to imagine Oregon matching pace down the stretch the way it played against St. Joseph’s. As we stated off the top, we wouldn’t be shocked by an upset here, but we’re going to grab the points. Play on DUKE.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* SWEET 16 GAME OF THE YEAR on Villanova.

The 27-7 Miami Hurricanes get ready to battle with 31-5 Villanova. The Wildcats defeated UNC Asheville by a score of 86-56 in their opener, followed by an 87-68 victory over Iowa, while Miami beat Buffalo by a score of 79-72 and Wichita State by a score of 65-57. Villanova looked dominant in both games, Josh Hart led the way in the win over the Hawkeyes with 19 points and four boards. Villanova finished the regular seaosn by winning five of its last six games, with the only setback coming to Seton Hall in the Big East Conference Championship. The Wildcats average 77 points per game while giving up just 63.7. Miami’s last loss was to Virginia in the ACC Tournament. The Hurricanes average 75.6 points and give up 66.8 per. Villanova averages more PPG and gives up less. The Wildcats also enjoy a rebounding advantage. Villanova has excelled in its first two games, while Miami gave up a monster lead in its win over the Shockers, holding on for dear life at the end. When taking into account all of the above factors, all signs do indeed point to the WILDCATS as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* CIT QUARTERFINAL SIDE OF THE YEAR on Grand Canyon.

The 27-6 Grand Canyon Antelopes meet with the 20-11 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers in the CIT Quarterfinal on Wednesday and while we obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for these two evenly matched teams to take this one right down to the wire. The Antelopes come into this one off a 78-74 win over South Carolina State and a 65-54 victory over Jackson State. Grand Canyon comes in with momentum, it ended the regular season by winning six of its last eight games and finished tied for second in the WAC standings, but was unable to play in the conference tournament due to it transition to Division 1 status. The Antelopes can put the rock in the hole with the best of them, averaging 76.8 PPG, while giving up just 68.6. The Chanticleers enter the Quarterfinal round off of a 65-57 win over Mercer and a 71-62 victory over New Hampshire. Coastal Carolina averages 74.7 points while giving up only 67.3 per contest. We simply feel that Grand Canyon has traveled a much harder road to this point and is the more tested and that in the end this experience will nullify any advantage that the Chanticleers may have had on their own floor. Play on the ANTELOPES.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on BYU. 

Creighton beat Alabama 72-54 in the first round and Wagner 87-54 in the second, while BYU beat UAB 97-79 in the first round, before then outlasting Virginia Tech in a slim victory in the second. So far it’s been a cake-walk for the Blue Jays, but clearly the talent level across the board goes up significantly now in facing the Cougars. Creighton’s defensive numbers have been impressive through the first two rounds, allowing only 54 points in both games, but don’t read too much into that. BYU is eighth in the country in scoring offense at 83.7 PPG, shooting 46.4 percent as a team and is in an entirely different league than either Alabama or Wagner. The Blue Jays also average quite a bit, at 79.6 PPG, ranking them 32nd in the country. We’re going with battle tested BYU in this one though, which has faced tougher teams than Creighton to get to this point. The Cougars average a few more points and give up the same amount, but also enjoy a significant edge on the glass. That’s good enough for us, play on BYU.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Oregon.

St. Joes is coming off a thrilling 78-76 win over Cincinnati on Friday and has been a nice story to this point, but we think the Hawks run comes to an end tonight vs. No. 1 seeded Oregon. The Ducks come into the round of 32 after destroying Holy Cross 91-52. The Hawks average 77.3 PPG and give up 69.8. Oregon averages 78.8 PPG game and give up just 69.1. Also note that Oregon is 4th in the country in blocks with 5.91 per contest. The key factor for us though is that the Ducks’ starters were all rested in their opening destruction of Holy Cross, while St. Joe’s had to battle tooth and nail down to the final second for its victory. Oregon has the superior depth and averages more points. A bunch of different factors do indeed point to the DUCKS as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* EAST-COAST EXPRESS on the Boston Celtics.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based entirely on strong and relevant ATS statistics:

Note that Boston is 27-22 ATS this season vs. poor defensive teams which allow 99-plus points per contest and already 4-2 ATS after playing to three or more consecutive SU losses, while Philadelphia is 0-9 ATS this year as a home dog in the 9.5 to 12 points range, just 4-9 ATS vs. division opponents and only 18-24 ATS after three or more consecutive SU losses.

The bottom line: Here’s the perfect opponent to get untracked against, we look for BOSTON to take advantage of this favorable spot and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* BLOCKBUSTER on Oklahoma.

VCU advanced to the round of 32 by taking out Oregon State by eight points, while Oklahoma earned a 14 point victory over Cal State Bakersfield. VCU for the most part was solid all season, it would lose to St. Joe’s by 13 points in the A-10 Title game. The Rams looked solid in their 75-67 win over the Beavers. Oklahoma came into the NCAA tourney with something to prove, it won three of its last four, losing 69-67 to WVU in the Big 12 semifinals when Buddy Hield’s shot from half court at the buzzer was waived off by the refs. Hield had 27 points in the win over the Roadrunners and the team shot 50 percent overall, including 11 of 20 from beyond the arc. To keep this short and sweet, we think that VCU has been a great story to this point and the win over the Pac-12 team in the opening round was impressive, but Hield and the Sooners are on a completely different level. We expect the “better” team to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on OKLAHOMA.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Ohio State.

Florida would bounce back from a SEC Tournament loss at the hands of Texas A&M to beat North Florida 97-68 on Tuesday. We had the Gators in that one. Florida though was middling on the road this year, while Ohio State was dominant at home. We simply can’t state how important we feel that home floor advantage will be in this one. The Buckeyes got past Akron on Tuesday, thanks in large part to 18 points from a trio of players in Kam Williams, Marc Loving and Jaquan Lyle. Ohio State made 21 of 23 free-throw attemps as well. Florida’s offense looked decent against the Ospreys, but consistency from game to game on that end of the court has been the Gators achilles heel all year long. Not to mention that scoring on North Florida is one thing, while scoring against this talented Ohio State team is quite another. In our professional opinion, this is indeed the very definition of great line value. Play on the BUCKEYES.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Virginia.

We think No. 9 seeded Butler comes to the end of the road in the Tournament as the bigger and deeper No. 1 seeded Cavaliers find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Kellen Dunham had 23 points in 31 mintues in the Bulldogs’ 71-61 win over Texas Tech in the First Round. Butler averages 80.3 PPG and shoots 46.6 percent as a team, but where the Bulldogs fall short is on the defensive end, giving up 70.8 PPG. Virginia annihilated Hampton 81-45 in its opening round game, shooting over 55 percent, including a 12/25 showing from behind the arc. The Cavs looked sharp on the defensive end as well, holding Hampton to just 30 percent shooting. The Cavs shoot 48.7 percent as a team and are ranked No. 1 in the country on the defensive end, holding opponents to just 59.2 PPG off 42.1 percent shooting. Butler is clearly a good team, but the CAVALIERS are on an entirely different level and we think their smothering defense will prove to be just too much for the Bulldogs to overcome.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Duke.

No. 12 Yale would beat No. 5 Baylor 79-75 on Thursday as a 5.5 point underdog. Obviously the Bulldogs have to be loving life right now, not only did they get the big upset win in the first round, but it’s the first ever NCAA Tournament win for the team, which is making its first appearance in 52 years. Can anyone say classic letdown spot? The Blue Devils advanced with a less than inspiring 94-85 win over UNC Wilmington on Thursday, unable to cover the 9.5 point spread (we had Wilmington in that one). But now Duke is in the right place at the right time, we think sophomore Grayson Allen and Brandon Ingram are going to have big nights vs. the overmatched Bulldogs. And if history is any precednece, then Duke has to be loving its chances today as it’s 5-0 ATS its last five vs. the Ivy League, while Yale is only 2-5 ATS in its last seven vs. the ACC. These teams actually played on November 25th at Cameron Indoor Stadium and the Blue Devils would pull away for the convincing 80-61 win. We think an even bigger blowout is in the cards. Play on DUKE.

AAA Sports

This is a SECOND ROUND NIT GAME OF THE YEAR on Wagner.

Wagner comes into the second round with momentum and we believe the team will carry it over into this one. The Seahawks upset St. Bonaventure in their first round matchup, while Creighton cruised to an 18 point win over Alabama. Wagner’s victory was significant because many thought the Bonnies should have fact been invited to the Big Dance, but instead they’d receive a No. 1 seed in the NIT. The Seahawks won by four, led by Romone Saunders off the bench with 21 points, seven boards and four assists. The Blue Jays finished 9-9 in the BIg East and was led by Maurice Watson Jr., who averaged 14.4 points, 6.4 assists and 3.4 boards per game. The Seahawks continue to go underrated by their opposition and by the bookmakers and while we won’t be so bold as to call for an outright upset, we’ll point out that Wagner is 3-1 ATS in its last four vs. good offensive teams that score 77-plus points per contest, while Creighton is just 2-3 ATS in its last five as a home fav in the 12.5 to 15 points range. We think Creighton comes in a bit complacent here and that WAGNER takes this one down to the wire.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Michigan.

So far we’ve had a ton of success playing on or against Michigan during the tournaments. First we were on the Wolverines in their conference upset over Indiana. Then we went against Michigan in its semi-finals loss to Purdue. We then were back on the Wolverines in their First Four victory over Tulsa. Now we’ll look to continue that success. Michigan comes in battle tested and ready to prove itself again and we think it can catch ND off-guard and at the very least, expect it to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Rest invariably leads to rust and Notre Dame hasn’t played in over a week when it was last seen losing to North Carolina in the semifinals of the ACC Tourney. Michigan averages 38 percent from behind the 3-point line, but uncharacteristically struggled against Tulsa. The Wolverines looked great defensively though and we think are going to be able to slow down this ND attack (note that Michigan allows just 67.3 PPG). The Irish shoot 36.9 percent from behind the arc, but they allow teams to shoot 37.6 from 3-point range. That does not bode well vs. MICHIGAN. Look for the WOLVERINES to take this one down to the wire.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* OPENING ROUND GAME OF THE YEAR on Wisconsin.

Wisconsin interim coach Greg Gard made the most of his opportunity after Bo Ryan stepped away, directing the Badgers back to another Big Dance. Gard has had his interim label removed and he’ll now be looking to make a deep run into the tournament. Pittsburgh may have finished 21-11 overall, but the Panthers would struggle down the stretch of their season and would lose to eventual ACC Tourney Champ UNC in the quarterinal of that event. Pittsburgh enters having dropped four of its last six. The Badgers closed the season strong after a 9-9 start to finish 20-12 overall. Gard has continued Ryan’s schemes, especially on the defensive end where WIsconsin allows opponents to score the ball at a rate of 95.3 points per 100 possessions, which is ranked 24th in the country. So not only are the Panthers struggling with consistency right now, the numbers aren’t working in their favor either as they’re an amazingly bad 0-9 ATS in March games over the last two seasons. Wisconsin is playing with better chemistry right now and the combination of Ethan Happ and Nigel Hayes will be too much for Pittsburgh to handle in the paint, play on the BADGERS.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on USC.

Providence got bounced from the Big East Tournament early against Villanova. The Wildcats would smother Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil on the defensive end, holding the duo to just 12 total points. Villanova has given USC the blueprint to slow down the Friars. The Trojans lost to Utah in the Pac 12 Conference tournament. USC loves to get out and push the pace and we think this will prove to be too much for Providence to handle down the stretch; note that USC averages 72.0 possessions per 40 minutes, ranked 49th in the NCAA. Opponents are also scoring the ball at a rate of 99.9 per 100 possessions, which is ranked 89th in the country. The Trojans are also adept at guarding the three-ball, allowing opponents to hit just 32.3 percent, ranked 63rd. USC’s depth proves to be the difference today.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on Indiana.

The Mocs won the Southern Conference at 15-3 and then won the conference tournament as well, finishing a highly respectable 29-5 overall. Indiana won the tough Big Ten regular season title, but got bounced by Michigan early in the conference tournament as a 6.5 point fav. We had the Wolverines in that one. The Hoosiers finished 15-3 in conference and 25-7 overall. Indiana though will clearly be looking to take out its frustrations after the “brain fart” against Michigan cost it a shot at the conference tournament title. In Tennessee Chattanooga’s only game vs. a ranked team, it lost by 20 to Iowa State. This is a battle of David and Goliath, but this time around the giant is going to take care of business. Note that the Mocs are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 neutral site contests, while Indiana is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 following an ATS loss. Look for INDIANA to roll.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on NC Wilmington.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based entirely on strong and relevant ATS statistics:

Note that UNC Wilmington is already 5-1 ATS as an underdog this season and 4-1 ATS in all neutral court games, while Duke is 0-6 ATS in all neutral court contests this year and just 12-13 ATS when playing the role of favorite.

The bottom line: We think Duke gets caught “looking past” its lowly opponent today and while we won’t be so bold as to call for the outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on UNC WILMINGTON.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SUPER-BLOWOUT on BYU.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based on a few different factors:

It’s the No. 7 seed UAB Blazers taking on the No. 2 seed BYU Cougars. UAB had a 16-2 record in the C-USA, but failed to win the tournament. BYU finished in third in the WCC with a 13-5 record. These team’s overall win/loss records may be similar, but that’s where it ends in my opinion. UAB is ranked 115th in the Ken Pomeroy’s College Basketball Rankings, while BYU is ranked 59th overall. It was a devastating tournament run for the Blazers, who were picked by most to win the event. Instead the team fell 88-77 to Western Kentucky, getting out-rebounded 50-28. The team averages 79 points and allows 69.6. The Cougars average 83.6 PPG and allow 72.2. We simply can’t see the Blazers matching pace with BYU down the stretch and think this spread should be a bit larger. Play on BYU.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* BLOCKBUSTER on Michigan.

We played on Michigan in its Conference Tournament upset win over Indiana and then bet against the Wolverines in their setback to Purdue. We’re once again going back the other way for this one though as we expect Michigan to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Tulsa won four of its last five before getting annihilated by Memphis in the AAC Tournament on March 11th. The Golden Hurricane are led by Shaquille Harrison, who averages 14.8 points, 5.5 boards, 4.1 assists and 1.9 steals. Tulsa’s glaring weaknesses were on full display in the setback to the Tigers, as it was out-rebounded by five in the setback (note that the Golden Hurricane are also weak in defending the 3-ball, allowing opponents to shoot 36.3 percent. This of course plays right into the Wolverines strength). Note that Michigan averages 38.4 percent from beyond the arc, led by Derrick Walton Jr. at 39.3 percent. Experience in these types of games can’t be overlooked as well, Tulsa is filled with seniors, but it’s 0-7-1 ATS in its last eight neutral court games and 0-4 ATS as a neutral court underdog, while Michigan is 7-2-1 ATS in its last ten NCAA Tournament contests and 5-0-1 ATS in its last six a an NCAA Tournament favorite. MICHIGAN’s ability to shoot the 3-ball and Tulsa’s inability to defend it adequately turns out to be the difference today.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Vanderbilt.

One thing you can’t teach is “size.” The Shockers will have to contend with a major size discrepancy today and its a matchup factor which we feel will be too much for them to overcome. Vanderbilt has two 7-footers in its line-up, keep your eyes on 7-0 center Damian Jones, who was named to the SEC’s first team for averaging over 14 PPG on 60 percent shooting. The Commodores also lean on 7-1 junior Luke Kornet (7.2 PPG), who averages three blocks per contest. Wichita State was devastated by injuries earlier in the year and while its shown flashes this season, consistency from game-to-game has been a major issue. After a lacklustre 5-5 start, the Shockers would then win 19 of 21 before falling to Northern Iowa in the Missouri Valley Conference semifinals. Not only will Wichita State have to deal with trying to match-up against the much larger Commodores, but it’ll also be playing for the first time in ten days. Vanderbilt last played on Thursday. Rest invariably leads to rust and we definitely expect this to be a major factor as well once the final buzzer sounds. And it’s as simple as that for us. Vanderbilt has two distinct advantages working in its favor in this matchup and while we obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on VANDERBILT.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* NIT Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Florida.

Florida did not make it to the NCAA tournament, but it wasn’t a shocker at all, the team knew that it would be excluded as the SEC conference is simply stacked from top to bottom with eight schools finishing with 19 or more victories. The Gators have earned the No. 2 seed in the NIT and won’t be disappointed in being relegated to the “lesser” tournament, instead we expect them to try and dominate this event. Florida would eventually fall 72-66 to Texas A&M last Thursday in the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament. The Gators average 73.6 poitns and allow just 68.6. We think the Gators’ tough defensive play will be too much for the North Florida Osprey to overcome today. North Florida is surely still feeling “shell shocked” after going into the 2016 Atlantic Sun Tournament as the No. 1 seed, only to then get destroyed by eventual tournament winner Florida Gulf Coast by a score of 89-56. The Osprey shot just 31 percent on the night and were out-rebounded by 49-24. The Osprey do average 84.8 PPG, but allow 79 (note that North Florida is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven following a SU loss of more than 20 points). In every respect, Florida is the better team today and in our professional opinion, this line should in fact be a lot larger. Play on the GATORS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the New Orleans Pelicans.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based on scheduling: 

Running out of gas yet?: The Warriors continue to get the job done, they come into this one having won four straight and nine of their last ten, but there’s no question that the team has to be feeling a bit tired at this point of the season. With the playoffs on the horizon, at some point it’s not too hard to imagine the Warriors to start to have a bit of a mental letdown. And with the lowly Knicks on deck after the 24-41 Pelicans tonight, before a grueling road trip which starts next week in Dallas and at San Antonio, it’s definitely not to hard to imagine the team getting caught looking past this “vanilla” stretch to the much more important part of their schedule next week.

The bottom line: We feel it’s a great spot to pull the trigger on this “situational” selection, grab as many points as you can with the PELICANS.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the Dallas Mavericks.

These two teams are moving in opposite directions right now, but as we like to say: desperation breeds motivation. While we wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, we do think that at the very least that the hungry and revenge minded Mavs will keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The Hornets are primed for a letdown here after winning seven straight, most recently a 125-109 thumping of the Rockets on Saturday. They’ve also won nine-straight at home. Dallas on the other hand has lost five-straight. The Mavs most recently fell 112-105 to visiting Indiana on Saturday, dropping them to .500 for the first time since early November. Dallas though is still in the thick of the playoff race, in a tie with Houston for the Western Conference’s final playoff spot. As mentioned off the top, the Mavs play with the revenge-factor today after falling 108-94 to the Hornets on November 5th. One player to keep your eyes on for the visitors is veteran Dirk Nowitzki, who has averaged 26.8 points and hit 57.1 percent over his past four overall. Grab as many points as you can, play on DALLAS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOWOUT on Michigan State.

We had Michigan in its upset over Indiana and then took Purdue to take care of the Wolverines. Michigan State lost to Purdue 82-81 in OT on February 9th and will be out to avenge that setback, while also cementing a No. 1 seed in The Tournament. Purdue used its size and defense to eventually pull away from the Wolverines, but those strengths will both be negated today by MSU’s superior defensive pressure. MSU would hold the Terps to just 33.3 percent shooting in its 64-61 win over Maryland on Saturday. In fact, not only does Michigan State rank first in three-point shooting percentage (43.5), second in field goal defense (37.7), but it’s also 13th in three-point shooting defense (30.4 percent). Note that the underdog is just 2-5 ATS the last seven in this series, while MSU is 22-8 ATS in its last 30 following a SU victory. Deadly from the outside and among the best in the country on the defensive end, combined with the revenge factor from the regular season loss does indeed make MICHIGAN STATE the savvy move in this contest. 

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Purdue.

Purdue is too big, too talented and too deep for Michigan, which has won back-to-back games to advantace to the semifinals. Michigan was on the bubble heading into the tournament and needed at least two victories to ensure its spot in the Big Dance. The Wolverines got those two victories and can now take the foot off the gas. The Boilermakers on the other hand have much bigger plans and an exit at this point would be considered a major letdown. In their win over the Illini, the Boilermakers’ 89 points were their second most in a Big Ten Tournament game in school history. Purdue has now shot over 50.0 percent from the floor in five straight games and over 55.0 percent in three straight. We think it’s also important to point out that Purdue’s bench outscored Illinois’ by a 42-to-8 margin. Michigan has been a great story, but we think has a predictable “hangover” in this spot. No need to overanalyze this one, we expect the BOILERMAKERS to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BIG TEN Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Michigan.

It’s a quick turnaround for the Wolverines after they held on for a 72-70 OT win over Northwestern yesterday. Michigan has a lot to play for here, as it’ll be out to avenge an earlier loss to Indiana in which it clawed its way back from a 21-point deficit in the second half, only to have their effort fall short. The Wolverines also need one more win to punch their ticket to the Big Dance: “We gotta rest right now,” said Michigan coach John Beilein. “We gotta rest and get ready for tomorrow. We’ll have shoot around time here — we won’t use it — we’ll just walk and talk and watch clips of the Indiana game, as well as watch for similarities between this game and what Indiana will do.” Indiana has four players scoring in double figures, but will a five-day layoff be detrimental here? Rest invariably leads to rust, we think the Wolverines can actually use this to their benefit today and catch the Hoosiers a little flat footed out of the gate. One player to keep your eyes on is Michigan junior forward Zak Irvin, who had eight boards while also scoring the Wolverines’ winning jumper yesterday. Note that Michgian is 9-7 ATS in its last 16 tournament games, while Indiana is just 4-5 ATS in the same position. While we won’t be so bold as to call for an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for the WOLVERINES to at the very least, take this one down to the wire and sneak in through the back door down the stretch.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on Mississippi State.

Mississippi State ended the regular season on a high-note, earning the No. 11 seed in the tournament following a 79-66 win over Auburn. Georgia is the tournaments No. 6 seed, finishing 10-8 in conference after a 70-63 win over Alabama in its regular season finale. Revenge is a major factor today though in our opinion, Mississippi State has lost four straight in this series, including a 9-3 mark in SEC tournament action. Note that Mississippi State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven in trying to revenge an ATS loss to a conference opponent of nine points or more. Grab as many points as you can, play on MISSISSIPPI STATE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on Alabama.

Mississippi came back from an eight point halftime deficit to capture a 74-66 victory over Alabama back on January 7th. It’s payback time for the Crimson Tide, who lost their conference opener in that one. In fact, Alabama comes into this one having dropped three straight and five of the last six in the series. Alabama though is just one of 15 teams in the country to have beaten four teams ranked in the AP Top 25 this year. As we can tell by the spread, the oddsmakers think these teams are pretty evenly matched and we completely agree. In a contest which we foresee coming down to the last shot, all signs point to the points as the savvy move in this contest; play on ALABAMA.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on Florida.

Arkansas finished 16-15, while Florida finished 18-13. The Razorbacks average 78.7 points and allow 74.9, while the Gators average 74 and give up 68.7. Experience in this spot can’t be overlooked, note that Arkansas is already 0-3 this year on neutral court, while Florida is 2-1. Florida is still on the bubble of a Big Dance ticket and will need a win or two at least in the tournament to secure a victory. Ultimately we think the Gators’ hard-nosed defense will be too much for the Razorbacks to overcome. Note that Arkansas is just 6-14 ATS in its last 20 following an ATS loss, while Florida is 6-3 ATS in its last nine vs. good offensive teams which average 77-points or more per contest. Play on the GATORS.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on Oregon State.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based on what we feel to be a couple of key factors:

Revenge factor: The 11th seeded Sun Devils played the Beavers just once this season and won 86-68 on January 28th. 

ATS statistics: Note that ASU is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine on a neutral court, while Oregon State is 2-1 ATS this year on a neutral court and 6-4 ATS when revenging a road loss vs. an opponent.

The bottom line: With a chance to avenge the earlier loss, we look for the “better” team to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on OREGON STATE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on UCLA.

The Bruins are the No. 10 seed, while the Trojans are the No. 7. UCLA was 3-4 vs. teams ranked in the AP top-25 this year, including wins over No. 1 Kentucky, No. 20 Gonzaga and No. 7 Arizona. The Bruins are a well rounded team who have five players which average ten or more points per game. We’re giving the Bruins the big nod in the experience department here, the team has won five of six games in the tournament the past two seasons. Note that the Bruins have won at least one game in the conference tournament in each of the past four seasons. UCLA plays with the double revenge factor after dropping both games to USC this season. Note though that the Trojans have struggled in this spot for bettors this year, going just 3-5 ATS off a loss vs. a conference rival, while UCLA is 8-6 ATS this season after allowing 80 points or more. Grab as many points as you can, play on UCLA.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* EAST-COAST EXPRESS on the Milwaukee Bucks.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based on a few different factors:

Classic letdown spot: After five straight victories, we think the Heat, who have a back-to-back set starting at Chicago on Thursday and ending in Toronto on Friday, suffer a classic letdown here.

Revenge: Milwaukee plays with revenge after falling 107-103 to Miami on January 29th.

Desperation breeds motivation: The Bucks will not only be hungry to avenge that setback, but they’ll also be risking life and limb in trying to snap a stretch in which they’ve lost five of their last seven. 

ATS statistics: Note that Miami is just 3-6 ATS this year after three or more consecutive SU victories, while Milwaukee is 7-3 ATS after a divisional contest and 12-9 ATS after a loss by ten points or more.

The bottom line: While we obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on MILWAUKEE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on Stanford.

The Cardinal are out for payback today and if history is any precedence, then they have to be loving their chances. Stanford lost its only meeting with Washington this year, but it would defeat UW in last year’s Pac-12 Tournament opener on a buzzer beater. Five members of the Cardinal are averaging double figures in the scoring column this season and it’s the first time a Stanford team has had five individuals average double figures since 1948. Note that Stanford is 4-2 ATS this season in revenging a road loss vs. an opponent and already 2-0 ATS this year in neutral court contests, while Washington is just 1-2 ATS this year when playing with five or six days rest and only 1-3 ATS when playing on a neutral court. Grab as many points as you can, play on STANFORD.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* ASSASSIN on Boston College.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based on what we feel to be a couple of key factors:

Look-ahead spot: Despite this being the first round of the ACC tournament, it’s not too hard to imagine the 18-12 Seminoles taking the lowly 7-24 Eagles a little lightly today. BC was winless in conference play and is in the midst of an 18-game losing streak. Despite all of these facts, we think the value has now swung to the dog in this situation. 

ATS statistics: Note that the Eagles have in fact performed well in this spot for bettors this season, going 4-2 ATS in their last six vs. good offensive teams which score 77-plus points per contest, while FSU has struggled by going just 6-9 ATS when playing the role of favorite.

The bottom line: This line is already dropping, grab as many points as you can as we expect the sizeable dog to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Play on BOSTON COLLEGE.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ACC Tournament GAME OF THE MONTH on Wake Forest.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based on a few different factors:

Both teams are terrible: Wake Forest finished 11-19, while NC State was 15-16. The Demon Deacons lost three in a row and 14 of 15, but looked decent in their 79-71 loss at Duke in the regular season finale. The Wolfpack dropped three of their last four, most recently getting crushed 89-75 at Notre Dame last weekend. These teams are in fact very evenly matched, a sentiment clearly shared by the oddsmakers. They met twice in the regular season and Wake would win 77-74 at home on January 10th, before NC State returned the favor in a 99-88 shootout on February 13th. 

ATS statistics: Note that Wake Forest is already 3-1 ATS this year when playing on a neutral court and 4-1 ATS in its last six when playing with five or six days rest, while NC State is just 1-2 ATS in neutral court games this season and just 1-2 ATS after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games.

The bottom line: While we wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for this one to come down to the wire. Play on WAKE FOREST.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* WCC Tourney GAME OF THE YEAR on Saint Mary’s.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based on a few different factors:

Double revenge scenario: The Pepperdine Waves would beat San Francisco to advance to the WCC Quarter-Finals and were the only team to defeat the Gaels twice in the regular season. It’s payback time.

Defensive number discrepancies: These teams nearly average the same amount of points on the offensive end (St. Mary’s averages 74.7, while Pepperdine averages 73.7), but the Gaels only give up an average of 60 PPG, while the Waves give up an average of 70.9. 

The bottom line: No need to overanalyze this one in our opinion, the double revenge factor along with these massive number mismatches does indeed make SAINT MARY’S the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* ASSASSIN on Nebraska.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based on a few different factors:

Lots to play for: At 14-16 overall and 6-11 in conference, at first glance it may not appear as if the Huskers have much to play for today, but that would in fact be completely inaccurate. If Nebraska can win its final game of the regular season, it would lock up a first-round bye for next weeks’ Big Ten Tournament, plus a win by either Michigan State, Purdue or Illinois. 

Revenge: Despite Benny Parker setting a career high with 17 points and seven assists, highlighted by five 3-pointers, Nebraska fell 81-72 to Northwestern in the team’s Big Ten opener on December 30th. It was a disappointing setback and one the Huskers won’t soon forget as the Wildcats overcame a 12-point second half deficit for the victory. 

ATS statistics: Note the Nebraska is 5-1 ATS in its last six in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent after leading the setback by at least ten points at half time, while Northwestern is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine in front of the home town crowd.

The bottom line: This is an important game for both teams, but the situational factors and strong ATS trends are all pointing to a nail-biter. Grab the points with NEBRASKA.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* play on Louisville.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based on a few different factors:

Revenge: Here’s another great revenge scenario as the Cardinals would fall 63-47 to Virginia on January 30th. Louisville enters the final game of the regular season with plenty of momentum, winning four of its last five, including a 56-53 over Georgia Tech last time out. 

ATS statistics: Note that Louisville is 6-1 ATS in its last seven in trying to revenge a loss by 14 points or more vs. a conference opponent, while Virginia is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after back-to-back covers vs. conference opponents.

The bottom line: These teams are separated by just a single game in the standings, an all out war is in the cards, so in a contest which we envision coming down to whoever has the final possession, we’ll ultimately recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on LOUISVILLE.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* play on Arizona State.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based on a couple of different factors:

Revenge: I played on Arizona State in its game vs. Stanford on Thursday and it would break a four game losing streak and avenge an earlier loss to the Cardinal. Here’s another revenge situation vs. California as the Sun Devils fell 75-70 on January 21st to the Golden Bears. 

Classic letdown spot: After winning seven straight, Cal finally had a letdown in a 64-61 loss to Arizona last time out, a team which now sits two games ahead of it with one to play. The motivation factor is low for the Golden Bears right now.

ATS statistics: Note that Cal is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten after a SU loss following a five game or more unbeaten streak, while ASU is 6-3 ATS in its last nine in trying to revenge a loss vs. a Pac-12 opponent.

The bottom line: In a contest which we envision coming down to the wire, we’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on ARIZONA STATE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on Bowling Green.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based entirely on strong and relevant ATS statistics:

Note that Buffalo is just 1-4 ATS in its last five road games where the total is 145 to 149.5 and just 5-7 ATS in true road games, while Bowling Green is 15-12 ATS in its last 27 after scoring 60 points or less.

The bottom line: A couple of bottom feeders going head to head here, each comes in on lengthy runs of futility, but the difference is that the Falcons plays with revenge here after falling 88-74 to Buffalo on February 20th. Grab as many points as you can with BOWLING GREEN.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Arizona State.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based on what we feel to be a couple of difference making factors:

Revenge: The Sun Devils fell to Stanford 75-73 on January 23rd. 

Road vs. home records: The Cardinal are just 2-6 on the road, while ASU is 10-5 in front of the home town crowd.

ATS statistics: Note that Stanford is just 2-6 ATS on the road this season and only 2-5 ATS off a win vs. a conference rival, while Arizona State is already 3-1 ATS this year after three or more consecutive SU losses.

The bottom line: Three key factors collide to make ARIZONA STATE the savvy move in this matchup.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* SUPER-BLOWOUT on Mississippi.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based on a few different factors:

Ole Miss guard Stefan Moody: Moody has been on a tear of late and he’s a big reason why we love this pick. We simply can’t see the Bulldogs slowing him down. Note that Moody leads the SEC, while ranking ninth nationally in scoring at 22.8 PPG this season. He’s posted 19, 20-plus points games and has topped the 30-point plateau three times. 

Revenge: These teams played on January 16th and the Bulldogs would pull off the 83-77 victory. It’s payback time.

ATS statistics: Note that Mississippi State is just 2-3 ATS this season off a win vs. a conference rival, while Ole Miss is 5-2 ATS off a loss vs. a conference rival.

The bottom line: The crowd will be amped and so will MISSISSIPPI’s talented senior’s. And with some very real “revenge motivation” working in their favor, all signs do indeed point to the Rebels as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Charlotte Hornets.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based on a few different factors:

Home sweet home: The Hornets return to Charlotte for the first time in nearly three weeks, going 4-2 on their road trip. They’re in a heated race for the postseason and will look to now take advantage in playing eight of their next nine in front of the home town crowd. And it all starts tonight.

Phoenix road woes: The Suns are brutal away from friendly confines, they’ve lost 15 straight on the road by an average of 20.1 points. 

Revenge factor: One of Phoenix’s 15 victories this year came against Charlotte on January 6th, the Suns would pull away for a 111-102 win. In fact, Phoenix has won three straight in Charlotte and seven of the last eight in the series (but note, the Suns’ top five scorers from last year’s 111-106 victory there are not even with the team or are injured). 

ATS statistics: Note that Phoenix is just 7-20 ATS on the road and interestingly, just 16-23 ATS this season vs. poor defensive teams which allow 99-plus points per contest, while Charlotte is 19-15 ATS this year in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent and 7-3 ATS following a divisional contest.

The bottom line: We think a motivated Charlotte team, which has dropped two of its last three, comes in focused on the task at hand today and uses these motivational factors to post a convincing victory. Play on the HORNETS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Syracuse.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based on a few different factors:

Revenge game: North Carolina beat the Orange 84-73 on January 16th. In fact, this is a double revenge scenario after Syracuse fell 93-83 to the Tar Heels on January 26th, 2015 as well.

Momentum: Sure UNC is 23-6 and in a dog fight for top spot in the conference, but the Orange have been rolling as well, winning nine of their last 12. In fact, the Tar Heels have looked pretty ordinary of late, having split their last eight games. As far as overall consistency from game to game right now is concerned, the scales swing in favor of the Orange.

ATS statistics: Note that Syracuse is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games, while North Carolina is just 1-4-1 ATS in its last six following a straight up loss and interestingly, just 2-5-2 ATS in its last nine on Big Monday.

The bottom line: Syracuse has improved in leaps in bounds since the last time UNC saw it, especially on the defensive end of the floor. We think the oddsmakers are slow in recognizing this fact and while we won’t be so bold as to call for an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for the visitors to at the very least keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what we feel to be a very healthy spread afforded to them in this one. Play on the ORANGE.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* PAC-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Oregon.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based on a few different factors:

Home sweet home: The Ducks are still in No. 1 in the Pac-12 and after back-to-back victories over Oregon State and Washington State, they’ve now won a school record 24 straight in front of the home town crowd. So with two tough road games to finish the season, today’s contest clearly takes on added importance for Oregon.  

Stumbling down the stretch: A once promising season has gone by the way side for the Huskies, after a 7-3 start they’ve lost five of their last six. The team will still be lamenting its 82-81 setback at Oregon State last Thursday, in which a 3-pointer at the buzzer sealed their fate. And unfortunately, a date in Eugene is not what the doctor ordered to get untracked as they’ve lost five straight there.

Massive statistical discrepancies: Oregon averages a conference-low 10.3 turnovers and just 8.7 over its last six, while Washington’s 14.4 giveaways are the most in the Pac-12. 

ATS statistics: Note that Washington is just 13-20 ATS in its last 33 after allowing 80 points or more, while Oregon is 6-1 ATS its last seven vs. good offensive teams which average 77-plus points per contest.

The bottom line: This is a motivational mismatch, we’re expecting a wire-to-wire rout, play on the DUCKS.

AAA Sports

This is 10* COAST-TO-COAST EXPRESS on the Indiana Pacers.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based on a few different factors:

Scheduling and motivation levels: No need to overanalyze this one, as good as Damian Lillard has been and despite the Blazers having won 12 of their last 14, Portland comes into this one off a very satisfying 103-95 victory at Chicago just last night. For the Pacers though, this is an ultra-important game as they hit the road tomorrow for a five game trip, starting off in Cleveland. Not only will they be looking to take advantage of home floor, but they’re also out for revenge after falling 123-111 to Portland on December 3rd. It also wouldn’t be too hard to imagine the Blazers getting caught looking ahead to two whole days off after tonight’s game before continuing their marathon road trip at New York, Boston, Toronto and Detroit respectively. 

ATS statistics: Note that Portland is a poor 4-8 ATS this season when playing on back-to-back days, while Indiana is 19-8 ATS vs. teams with winning records and 8-5 ATS this year as a home fav in the 3.5 to six points range.

The bottom line: The situational, motivational and trend based factors all point to the PACERS as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* Southeast Division GAME OF THE YEAR on the Atlanta Hawks.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based on a few different factors:

History is against them: There’s no question that the Hornets have been playing great of late, but note that they’ve never posted five wins on a six-game road trip in franchise history. This one definitely sets up as a letdown spot for the home side after its thrilling 96-95 victory over Indiana on Friday, where Kemba Walker scored a layup with just 2.4 seconds left.

If history is any precedence: Atlanta has to be loving its chances for a victory today as it’s gone 15-2 in the series in front of the home town crowd since 2007.

Revenge factor: Charlotte beat the Hawks 107-84 on January 13th. 

ATS statistics: Note that the Hornets are just 17-18 ATS this season vs. good offensive teams which score 99-plus points per contest, while Atlanta is 20-17 ATS in the same position.

The bottom line: Charlotte has been playing extremely well, while the Hawks for the most part have been struggling with offensive consistency. And that’s why we love this selection, it’s a great situational play as we expect the visitors to come in a tiny bit complacent, while the home side will be risking life and limb to try and string a couple wins together. Play on ATLANTA.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the Atlanta Hawks.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based on a few different factors:

Classic letdown spot: The Bulls had lost five straight heading into the All Star break and with Jimmy Butler and Nikola Mirotic sidelined with injury, the team wasn’t expected to make much noise in the second half. However, behind some great play from Derrick Rose, Chicago has won three straight, most recently a full team effort in a 109-104 victory over Washington on Wednesday. So is it time to crown the Bulls after a couple of good games? We’re going to caution in reading too much into this small win skein, remember that they combined to shoot just 40.9 percent while failing to top 95 points in their previous three losses. Also note that Chicago has lost four straight on the road. 

Desperation breeds motivation: The Hawks will be risking life and limb today to try and secure a victory as they’ve come out of the All Star break and lost three straight. They’ll also be eager to snap a four-game home skid.

ATS statistics: Note that Chicago is just 9-11 ATS in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent this season and only 2-4 ATS after playing three consecutive home games, while Atlanta is a perfect 3-0 ATS this year after three or more consecutive SU losses.

The bottom line: The revenge factor gets thrown out the window today as the “hungrier” team finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on ATLANTA.

AAA Sports 

This is an 8* play on the Philadelphia 76ers.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based on a few different factors:

Revenge: The Sixers fell 106-94 at Washington on February 5th and have lost seven of the last eight in the series.

Classic “look-ahead” spot: With a game vs. Cleveland at home on Sunday, it’s not too hard to imagine the visitors looking past their lowly opponent today. Washington has already done this a few times this season, losing to the Bulls on Wednesday, who were playing without Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler and also to the Heat earlier in the season without Chris Bosh and Dwayne Wade on the floor.

ATS statistics: Note that Washington is just 15-17 ATS vs. poor defensive teams which allow 99-plus points per contest, while Philadelphia is 9-7 ATS in its last 16 in the same position.

The bottom line: The 76ers are at full health and catch an inconsistent Wizards team looking ahead to its matchup vs. the defending Eastern Conference champions; play on PHILADELPHIA.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the Indiana Pacers.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based on a few different factors:

Momentum: Indiana is finding a groove with a new starting lineup, over the last 12 games the unit has scored 102.2 points per 100 possessions when on the court together, while giving up 85.2. Once momentum is lost though, it’s very difficult to gain it back and that’s the situation that the Hornets find themselves in here as they had their five-game win streak and four-game road winning streak snapped in Wednesday’s 114-103 loss to the Cavaliers.

Revenge: Indiana’s 12-game home win streak in the series was snapped in a 117-95 loss to Charlotte on February 10th. 

ATS statistics: Note that Charlotte is just 16-18 ATS this season vs. good offensive teams which average 99-plus points per contest, while Indiana is 19-7 ATS vs. teams with winning records and 23-15 ATS vs. good offensive teams which score 99-plus per contest.

The bottom line: It’s a classic letdown spot for the visitors, we like the surging home side to take advantage and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Play on INDIANA.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Columbia.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based on what we feel to be a couple of key factors:

Revenge: Two of the top teams in the Ivy League go head to head tonight, The Columbia Lions have won two straight and four of five, while Princeton has won six straight. So where’s the advantage you ask? We think the “revenge factor” is a major one today, the Tigers have won four straight and nine of the last ten in the series, including an 88-83 OT victory in Columbia on February 13th. 

ATS statistics: Note that Columbia is already 2-1 ATS this year in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent and 4-2 ATS off a win vs. a conference rival, while Princeton is just 2-3 ATS at home this season and only 2-3 ATS off a win vs. a conference rival.

The bottom line: These teams are very evenly matched on both ends of the floor, but the revenge factor and these strong and relevant ATS trends, combined with what we feel to be a very healthy spread afforded to it, all do indeed make COLUMBIA the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* EXPRESS on the Houston Rockets.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based on a few different factors:

Revenge: The Rockets have already lost twice to the Blazers this season, despite massive efforts from James Harden and Dwight Howard.

Classic letdown spot: There’s no question that Portland has been playing awesome of late, but note that the team hasn’t won seven in a row in over 15 months. Conversely, while the Blazers sit complacent and contented, the Rockets are now on the outside of the playoff picture looking in after falling 117-114 in OT at Utah on Tuesday.

ATS statistics: Note that Houston is 2-1 ATS this season after playing three consecutive road games, also 7-4 ATS in its last 11 vs. poor defensive teams which allow 99-plus points per contest and 6-4 ATS this season as a road dog in the 3.5 to six points range, while Portland is just 3-6 ATS this year after three or more consecutive SU victories.

The bottom line: While we wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we expect Harden and Howard to keep this one close enough to at the very least allow the ROCKETS to sneak in through the back door down the stretch.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Cleveland Cavaliers.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based on a few different factors:

Classic letdown spot: The Hornets have been playing great, but after winning four straight away from friendly confines, we’re definitely expecting a drop-off in production today. Note that Charlotte hasn’t won five straight on the road in more than 14 years. And note that the Hornets were 6-17 away from home prior to this run.

Revenge: The Cavs will be looking to atone for a 106-97 setback to the Hornets on February 3rd.

Injuries: Note that Charlotte will be without Michael Kidd-Gilchrist who was lost to an injury last Wednesday. 

If history is any precedence: Cleveland has to be loving its chances today as the last time Charlotte visited on January 23rd, 2015, the home side would come away with the convincing 129-90 victory.

ATS statistics: Note that Charlotte is just 16-17 ATS this season vs. good offensive teams which score 99-plus points per contest, while Cleveland is 15-9 ATS vs. teams with winning records.

The bottom line: A classic letdown spot, revenge situation, all signs do indeed point to the CAVALIERS as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* ASSASSIN on Florida.

We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based entirely on strong and relevant ATS statistics: 

Note that Vanderbilt is just 3-7 ATS on the road this year and only 2-5 ATS off a win vs. a conference rival, while Florida is 6-4 ATS at home and 4-1 ATS off a loss vs. a conference rival.

The bottom line: These strong trends can not be ignored in this spot, play on FLORIDA.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on Cleveland State.

We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based on a few different factors:

Classic “look-ahead” spot: It’s not too hard to Imagine the 17-11 Green Bay Phoenix “looking past” lowly Cleveland State today, 8-20 overall and just 3-12 in conference which is tied for last in the league.

Revenge spot: Despite being out of contention for quite some time, the Vikings will be out to atone for a 20 points loss to the Phoenix back on January 7th. 

ATS statistics: Note that Cleveland State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven in trying to revenge a 20 point or more home loss to an opponent, while Green Bay is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight as a home fav or 11 points or more.

The bottom line: With a date vs. last place Illinois-Chicago after this, followed by a contest vs. league-leading Valparaiso to end the regular season, all signs point to the home side having enough of a mental lapse for the visiting VIKINGS to quietly sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what we feel to be a healthy amount of points afforded to them in this spot.

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