This is an 8* on MICHIGAN

These rival schools did not get a chance to meet on the football field in the fall. But I think we all know how that would have gone. Now it’s time for the basketball programs to collide and while maybe it’s not as big of a deal nationally, the matchup itself is SO MUCH better. These are two of the top four teams in the country (per the polls) meeting Sunday in Columbus. Michigan has returned from its near three-week pause to win back to back games, 67-59 over Wisconsin and 71-64 over Rutgers. The Wolverines only have one loss all season and that was at Minnesota last month. Ohio State being near the top of the rankings is a bit more surprising. The Buckeyes have won at Illinois, Wisconsin and Iowa, which is very impressive. They too lost at Minnesota, but also have three other defeats, two vs. Purdue and one at Northwestern. We like Michigan in this one. They are the only team besides Gonzaga and Baylor (both undefeated) to rank in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Ohio State ranks only 62nd in defensive efficiency. Play on MICHIGAN

This is a 10* on MURRAY STATE

Everyone is chasing Belmont in the Ohio Valley and neither of these teams will be catching the Bruins, who are 17-0 in conference play. SIU Edwardsville is 8-13 overall and 6-9 vs the OVC. They’ve lost three in a row, all in a blowout fashion. The three losses have been by a combined 71 points, all by 20 or more and the worst was at home, 86-57 vs. the team they visit today, Murray State. The Racers are 9-8 vs. the OVC and 12-10 overall. That’s a disappointing mark for a squad that’s been favored in the vast majority of its games. Thursday was an ugly 68-59 home loss at the hands of Eastern Illinois. Murray State was a 15-point favorite in that one and the loss snapped a four-game run where every win was by 12 or more points. At home, the Racers are averaging 83.6 points/game while giving up only 65.2. SIU Edwardsville just does not rise up as a big underdog. They’re 0-3 ATS as a road dog of 12.5 or more and 4-12 ATS their last 16. Play on MURRAY STATE

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This is an 8* on TEX TECH

We believe Texas Tech is the better team here and aren’t afraid of them having to go to Lawrence. While it’s a 1-15 SU and 3-13 ATS run here for the Red Raiders, this isn’t your typical season when it comes to home court advantage. Kansas has won and covered its last four games, but the last three have seen them take on Iowa State twice and Kansas State. Those are easily the two worst teams the Big 12 has to offer. This is also a revenge game for Texas Tech as they were beaten 58-57 by KU in Lubbock back in December. It was a horrible shooting night for the Red Raiders, who finished at just 32.3%. They have had LOTS of time to prepare for this rematch as the last time they played was 11 days ago vs. West Virginia. That was another loss, so you can bet there will be no shortage of motivation here. Just not convinced that Kansas is all that good this year. Yes, they beat Texas Tech and have strung together four straight wins. But we expect the Red Raiders to shoot better than they did in the first meeting and they won’t be as sloppy as recent Jayhawks’ opponents either. Play on TEXAS TECH

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This is an 8* on ALABAMA

Not sure at all why this line has come DOWN. Alabama, who just extended the contract of coach Nate Oats through the 2026-27 season, is the best team in the SEC this season. Vanderbilt is almost certainly the worst. We realize Vandy has been a little more competitive of late, going 5-0-1 ATS its last six games, but Bama won by 33 last Saturday and has had an entire week off as Thursday’s game vs. Texas A&M was postponed due to weather. The Crimson Tide are 10-1 in Tuscaloosa this season, winning by about 16 points per game. Five players were in double figures as they routed Georgia 115-82 last Saturday. Four of them average at least 10 PPG for the season. But while the Tide can score, it’s their defense that is largely responsible for them being ranked #8 in the country. They are second nationally in defensive efficiency and allow just 28.5% shooting from 3-point range, which is 9th best. The Commodores are severely outmatched in this one - at both ends of the floor. Alabama is 25-12 ATS after a game where it scored 80 or more points. Play on ALABAMA

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This is an 8* on GRAND CANYON

Grand Canyon, who is a PERFECT 6-0 in the WAC, should have no problem staying unbeaten in conference play tonight as they are set to host Cal Baptist for the first of two games this weekend. The Antelopes haven’t played a single game in February, but their 8-1 home record speaks for itself. In those nine games, they have scored 25 more points/game than they have allowed. They are really solid at both ends of the floor. Can’t say the same for Cal Baptist, who is allowing 85 points/game when they hit the road. They were torched for 97 in their last road game, which was at New Mexico State. Last weekend saw the Lancers split a couple home games with Sacramento State despite being favored in both. All six Grand Canyon home games that have had a line attached, they have covered. Cal Baptist has just one road victory and is not a threat to win here. Play on GRAND CANYON

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This is a 10* on NORTH DAKOTA STATE

North Dakota State is coming off a loss, their second in the last three games. Both losses saw them come into the game favored. The Bison are still tied for the Summit League lead at 9-3 mind you, and haven’t played in nearly two weeks. It was a subpar effort defensively the last time we saw them, which is rare given they allow only 63.9 points/game at home. They’ll be tested here by a South Dakota State team that is averaging more than 80 points/game. This rivalry has been closely contested the last couple seasons with the last four meetings decided by a total of 10 points. We think it’s a real “steal” getting points with the home team. South Dakota State hasn’t been sharp defensively this year, at least on the road where they give up 77.3 points/game. As an underdog, North Dakota State is 4-1 ATS this year. They are also 2-0 ATS playing with seven or more days rest. Play on NORTH DAKOTA STATE

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THIS IS A 10* on PHOENIX

The Suns had a six-game win streak snapped Tuesday with a 128-124 loss to Brooklyn. We’re not at all concerned about that. They actually led the Nets, who were without both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, by 24. It’s obviously a game they should have won. They can get back on track tonight in New Orleans. The Pelicans have lost four of five while giving up an average of 126.8 points/game. Two nights ago, they were beaten here at home by Portland 126-124. They’ve also lost to the likes of Detroit and Chicago recently. Right now, the Pelicans’ record is 12-16 and they just don’t perform well off high-scoring games. They are 4-9 ATS after allowing 115 or more points and 3-9 ATS after scoring 115 or more themselves. The Suns are simply much better defensively as they rank 4th in league in scoring (108 PPG allowed). They’ve recently defeated Philadelphia, Milwaukee and Boston. We’ve got no hesitation with laying a small number with the better team. Play on PHOENIX

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This is a 10* on MIAMI

Miami experienced a horrible loss last night as it blew a 19-point lead and lost to Golden State in overtime. It was a game where the Heat never actually trailed in regulation. Needless to say, that’s a game you “can’t lose.” But they did and are now sitting at 11-17 on the season, having lost three in a row. Sacramento is 12-15 and they’ve lost four straight, also going 0-4 ATS. Someone’s going to reverse their recent fortune here and we believe it will be the Heat, even though the Kings are rested. The four straight losses have all been at home. They’ve also all been by eight points or greater. Miami beat Sacramento on January 30th even though the Kings made 17 three-pointers in that game. The Kings defense is just horrendous as they allow more points per game than anyone in the West. At home, they are giving up an average of 121.6 points/game. Miami shouldn’t have any difficulty scoring tonight and we look for them to erase the painful memory of last night’s defeat. Play on MIAMI

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This is a 10* on BYU

BYU already holds a win over Pacific this season. They beat them 95-87 in Provo last month. The 11.5-point spread proved too high to cover though as it was a double overtime game. That’s one of several reasons why the spread is shorter the second time around. You’ve also got to factor in the change in home court “advantage” (though Pacific doesn’t exactly have a strong one and this is a unique time in sports where being at home matters less) and that BYU lost its last game. But that loss was to #1 Gonzaga, so again we’re not going to go about penalizing the Cougars. They are definitely the better team here and should win by at least the same margin they did last time vs. Pacific, only this time in regulation. Pacific has dropped five of its previous six games and allowed 80 or more points in all five losses. The one win came against a dreadful Portland team. BYU has had 10 days to prepare since the loss to Gonzaga as their last two games got cancelled. They are simply stronger than Pacific at both ends of the floor and are 6-1-1 ATS last eight road games. Play on BYU

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This is an 8* on WICHITA STATE

#6 Houston rolls into Wichita Thursday night to face a team they’ve already beaten by seven earlier in the year. But that was at home and Wichita State led that game by six points at half. It took a furious second half rally (16-0 run) from the Cougars to win that game. While three back in the win column, the Shockers have the same number of conference losses (2) as Houston. So a win here could make the conference race very interesting down the stretch. WSU has won nine straight home games vs. AAC opponents and four in a row overall. All four wins were close and though they haven’t covered a spread in a game since January 13th (0-5 ATS L5), we don’t need to worry about winning by any kind of margin tonight. Both teams have dealt with multiple postponements recently and thus are coming off eight-day layoffs. With the Shockers’ strong home record, we think they are a little underrated here, likely due to the 0-5 ATS mark their last five games. They’ve been pretty good as an underdog, including 7-3-1 ATS L11 times at home. Play on WICHITA STATE

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This is a 10* on INDIANA

Indiana’s woes continued on Monday as they lost in overtime to Chicago. It was their seventh loss in the last 10 games and the fifth time in those 10 games they lost as a favorite. They were down 11 in the fourth quarter Monday. But tonight it's a welcome reprieve for the Pacers as they face Minnesota, who just played last night. The Timberwolves lost 112-104 to the Lakers (no Anthony Davis) Tuesday. They too have dropped seven of their last 10 games. But while Indiana is still fifth in the Eastern Conference with the same streak, Minnesota is last in the Western Conference. A case can be made that they are the league’s weakest overall team, so we won’t hesitate to lay such a short number tonight as Indiana is on a 13-4-1 ATS run in the road favorite role. Another interesting trend here is that the T’wolves are 3-7 ATS when their five starters collectively played for more than 160 minutes the previous game. They combined for 161 last night. Play on INDIANA

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This is a 10* on Loyola Chicago

Loyola Chicago remains ranked even after splitting two games vs. Drake over the weekend. They are also still in first place in the Missouri Valley Conference with a 13-2 record as they are two up on Drake in the win column. Walking away with a split against the second best team in the league is not all that bad when you think about it, especially since the loss was in overtime and both games were on the road. At home, the Ramblers are a perfect 10-0 this season. Tonight they host a Valparaiso team that simply cannot hang with them. Valpo just lost by 14 at Northern Iowa Sunday and this is their third straight game on the road (they did win at N Iowa Sat). The road has seen the Crusaders average just 62.3 points/game this year. They lost twice at Evansville, but most concerning of all is what happened the last time they faced Loyola. At home, they were destroyed 75-39. The game was never close as Loyola led 37-16 at halftime. When Valpo loses, it’s often by double digits. Earlier this month, they fell by 24 at home to Bradley. This one will get ugly in a hurry. Play on LOYOLA CHICAGO

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This is an 8* on VMI

VMI is looking to play spoiler here and also win back to back games for the first time since a three-game win streak before Christmas. In conference play, it’s basically been “win one, lose one” for the Keydets by the KEY here is their perfect 8-0 ATS home record. They are 10-1 SU in games played here in Lexington City this season as opposed to 1-9 SU on the road. They have not gotten to play two straight at home since last month when they faced Wofford and The Citadel consecutively. It was then VMI did suffer its lone home defeat of the season. But it was by only two points to Wofford. The Keydets have four losses by three points or less this year, so their overall record could easily be a lot better. The team they are hosting tonight, UNC Greensboro, has won 9 of 10 and leads the SoCon with a 10-3 record. But tonight will be the second straight road game for the Spartans. The last time they were in this situation (last Monday), they lost at Furman. Saturday was a narrow escape for them as they won by only three at Mercer. Since VMI is so tough to beat at home, we will definitely take the points in this one. Play on VMI

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This is a 10* on TORONTO

Two years ago, these teams met in the Eastern Conference Finals. In that series, the Raptors pulled off what was considered an “upset” and went on to win their 1st NBA Championship. Milwaukee has been the top seed in the East each of the last two years, yet hasn’t even advanced to a NBA Finals. They are currently in second place and just ended a six-game road trip with three consecutive losses. Losing to Utah and by one to Phoenix is excusable, however falling as an 11-point favorite to Oklahoma City (which is what Milwaukee did on Sunday) is not. They return home Tuesday, but the first home game following a long road trip always seems to be a tough spot, especially when returning from the West Coast. Toronto is off its own embarrassing loss (to Minnesota), so they’ve got something to play for. The Raptors had won five of six before dropping two straight. They also have revenge tonight for a seven-point loss last month. The initial line movement for this game definitely looks to be of the sharper variety. Take the points in this one. Play on TORONTO

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This is a 10* on ARKANSAS

Arkansas, now ranked (#24), will look for its fourth straight win Tuesday night as they host Florida. The Razorbacks had an impressive road win Saturday at #10 Missouri, a game that went to overtime. They also won in Kentucky last week, by a single point. Things were much easier the last time the Razorbacks played at home. They downed Mississippi State 61-45. That’s the kind of score we should expect here as the Hogs are 12-1 in Fayetteville this season. They are averaging 84.4 points at home while giving up only 63.1. Florida is playing its first game in nearly two weeks as they’ve had three postponements in February. Their season has been severely disrupted by COVID as there was another 2+ gap between games in December. There’s also the matter of Keyontae Johnson collapsing on the court due to a heart issue back in December. So the Gators have never truly been able to get into any kind of real “rhythm” this season. Arkansas is playing its best ball of the season right now and has won six straight SEC games. With Florida allowing 77 points/game on the road, the Razorbacks get our vote of confidence tonight. Florida lost at home to South Carolina the last time it played. Play on ARKANSAS

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This is a 10* on ATLANTA

The Hawks desperately need a win tonight. They have lost three straight and six of seven. This losing streak has dropped them into ninth place in the East, even though they can still claim to have scored more points than they’ve allowed this season. The Knicks actually have a better record than the Hawks (two up in the win column) as they are coming off wins over Washington and Houston. They won those games by a combined 40 points! But be wary of a team that still only averages 103.4 points/game. The 121 the Knicks scored against the Rockets were their most since the third game of the season. Center Mitchell Robinson broke his hand Friday, which is a significant injury for this team. Atlanta really collapsed defensively against Indiana Saturday night, but we don’t see that happening again tonight. Plus Trae Young is going to have a better shooting night here than he did vs. the Pacers (he didn’t even attempt a single three-pointer in that game). Play on ATLANTA

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This is a 10* on the LAKERS

The Lakers fell behind 22-2 at the start Friday night. But over the course of the final three quarters, they battled back and ended up winning fairly comfortably against Memphis, 115-105. They even covered the 8.5-point spread! They can ill-afford a similar start tonight in Denver but it’s fair to say we won’t see anything like the start vs. Memphis. The Lakers have won seven in a row, the most convincing of which was a 114-93 game vs. the Nuggets out in LA. Incredibly that was a game the Lakers trailed by 12 at halftime. It may not end up being as big of a blowout tonight, but it doesn’t have to be and again, we stress the fact the Lakers WILL get off to a better start. Denver has won two straight after losing four of five, but those wins were vs. Cleveland and Oklahoma City. Against the Thunder, the Nuggets had their own poor start as they fell behind by 19. The Lakers can’t let the Jazz get too far ahead in the fight for first in the Western Conference. Play on LA LAKERS

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This is a 10* on MICHIGAN

When Michigan played Wisconsin on January 12th, it was a 77-54 blowout in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines actually lost their next game, 75-57 at Minnesota, which is their ONLY loss this season. They then responded with a pair of victories, 87-63 against Maryland and 70-53 at Purdue. Then COVID hit. That win over Purdue was all the way back on January 22nd, so it’s been more than three weeks since the Wolverines took the floor. Will they be rusty? Maybe. But we don’t think enough has changed in three weeks for Wisconsin to completely reverse what happened the first time. The Badgers are just 3-3 their last six games and the wins have been against middle of the pack or bottom teams in the Big 10. They lost by double digits to both Ohio State and Illinois, two of the conference’s top tier teams. Michigan, ranked #3 in the entire country, is obviously in that top tier. They led by as many as 40 in the first game with Wisconsin. They’re at full strength. Don’t see them losing. Play on MICHIGAN

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This is a 10* on HOUSTON

Houston has lost four straight games and failed to cover the spread in all of them. The two that were on the road did not go well at all as they were beaten by a combined 54 points at Charlotte and New Orleans. Thursday they lost at home to Miami. But we look for the Rockets to blast off tonight in New York as the Knicks are in the second game of a back to back and off a win. They beat the Wizards 109-91 Friday night, a win which came on the road. Having to now head home without any rest in between games is a tough spot for a team we still don’t think is very good, even though it is 12-15, a more competitive record than expected. The Rockets had a 13-point lead Thursday and could be shorthanded here, but we still like them as they’d won seven of eight before this four-game slide. The Knicks have failed to cover four of the last five times they’ve played a back to back. Play on HOUSTON

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This is a 10* on TROY

In-state rivals meet for the second time this year as Troy hosts South Alabama. The Jaguars won the first time, 73-70, however it was the Trojans leaving with the cash as six-point underdogs. They are underdogs again here, but only slightly at home. That first meeting was Thursday, by the way. Troy may be at the bottom of the Sun Belt’s East Division, but they are really good at home with a 7-1 record and they are allowing 59.9 points/game. They’re just a much better team here plus they are 8-1 ATS when seeking revenge for a road loss. When off a conference loss, the Trojans are 5-1 ATS this season. South Alabama has a losing road record and is just 2-5 ATS when playing with only one day of rest between games. The Jaguars have won five in a row, but the last four have all been decided by six points or less. It would seem they are due for a loss and Troy is going to be desperate to end a five-game losing streak in this rivalry. Play on TROY

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This is an 8* on MERCER

Mercer hosts the top team in the Southern Conference, UNC Greensboro, on Saturday. The Bears are looking to win their third in a row after two overtime victories against Samford earlier in the week. The first of those was a 2OT game, however Mercer hardly ever trailed in that game and never faced a deficit larger than three points. They did need to come from behind to win on the road Wednesday. But at home the Bears’ record is 7-2 and this is a team that can score (80.9 points/game at home), something you can’t always say about UNC Greensboro. The Spartans were able to earn a split with Furman earlier in the week, but scored only 49 points in the loss, which was on the road. That’s their only loss in the last nine games, but this team is not dominant and we don’t think they’re the best team in the SoCon even though they are in first place. These teams’ overall records aren’t all that different. The first time they played was closer than it looked as Mercer failed to make a basket in the final three minutes. Play on MERCER

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This is an 8* on TEXAS

Texas may be on a 5-game ATS slide, but we still believe the Longhorns are one of the better teams in the entire country. After losing three straight times on the court, they finally got back into the win column Tuesday with an 80-77 win at Kansas State. That one was closer than it should have been as Texas made a season-high 13 three pointers. Kansas State hadn’t stayed within single digits of anybody in the Big 12 since January 2nd. Both of the ‘Horns’ wins since Jan 9 have come against Kansas State but two of the losses have been by a total of three points. That Shaka Smart’s team has lost three of four in Austin should have them motivated today. TCU has won two in a row, both by three points, but is one of the conference’s poorer teams. This is their first Big 12 win streak of any kind since starting 3-0 last year and they’d lost five in a row prior to the two wins. Leading scorer Mike Mills has been out with a non-COVID related illness. Play on TEXAS

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This is an 8* on FLORIDA STATE

So Florida State has been off for a couple weeks. The 17th ranked ‘Noles last played on 1/30 when they were upset 76-65 in Atlanta by Georgia Tech. So they should be ready to go here in Tallahassee vs. Wake Forest, who comes in with just a single road win on the year and a 3-8 ACC record. Things have gotten better recently for the Demon Deacons as those three ACC wins have come over the course of the last five games, plus they are 6-1 ATS L7. But they are outclassed here and playing their third consecutive road game. Earlier this week is when they picked up that lone road win, beating Boston College 69-65 as a 2.5-point favorite. Boston College is the last place team in the ACC this year. What are the chances Wake can win two in a row? Obviously, very small. Now FSU has a spread to worry about here, but they are 9-1 at home and winning by an average of 13.6 points/game already. They’ve won the last three times they’ve played Wake Forest, who could be shorthanded here. The Seminoles are 6-2 ATS in ACC play. Play on FLORIDA STATE

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This is an 8* on PORTLAND

While Portland upset Philadelphia last night, we do not see them suffering any kind of letdown in the second night of a back to back against Cleveland. The Cavaliers have been really lousy of late, losing seven of the last eight. They were just beaten by THIRTY EIGHT points in Denver on Wednesday. It was the fifth loss by 18 or more points since January 29th. You’re looking at a team that has the worst point differential among Eastern Conference teams, so it’s just a matter of time before the Cavs are at/near last place in the standings. The only team in the league with a worse power rating is Minnesota. Portland is 5th in the Western Conference and has to be feeling good about itself following the result last night. They have won four of the last five games and two straight at home. Cleveland let Denver make 60% of its field goal attempts, so the Blazers should have a big game offensively. The Cavs are also getting outscored by 12.6 points/game on the road, so we have zero hesitation about laying such a short number. Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 10* on DALLAS

We say it’s “time” for the Mavericks to actually cover a game! They are just 1-10 ATS L11, but have won the last three straight up, all three wins coming by five points or less. Those three wins were against Golden State, Minnesota and Atlanta. Against Atlanta Wednesday night, they had to rally back from a 13-point deficit. It’s a real small number that the Mavs are being asked to lay tonight as the Pelicans pay a visit to Dallas. The Pelicans just dropped a game in Chicago, 129-116, which snapped a four-game SU and ATS win streak. Neither of these teams are among the top eight in the Western Conference and both are two games below .500. So it would “seem” to be a fairly even matchup. However, Dallas has grossly underachieved to this point and in our estimation is due to improve its record. They are just 2-10 ATS at home. How long can they continue to sport such a poor covering rate? New Orleans is pretty atrocious at defending the 3-point line, giving up an average of 16 threes per game. They just let Chicago make 25! This has been a favorable matchup in the past for the Mavericks, who won all four matchups last season. Play on DALLAS

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This is a 10* on ROBERT MORRIS

Robert Morris’ first season in the Horizon League is not going all that well as the Colonials are just 2-9 in conference play. Last weekend was just brutal as they lost two overtime games to Youngstown State. Had they won one (or both), perhaps more people would be looking at them differently coming into this next game. But we’re cool with it. They should be able to defeat Oakland at home Friday. The Golden Grizzlies are coming off their own painful set of results last weekend as they lost twice to first place Cleveland State. Something to note is that three of Oakland’s eight wins this season have been over Detroit. They are just 5-15 otherwise. Two of the other five were against IPFW, who isn’t any good either. Now certainly we can’t call Robert Morris “good,” but with six of their nine Horizon League losses coming by six points or less, it’s fair to say they’ve been unlucky. They deserve a better record and should get the win here. Play on ROBERT MORRIS

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This is an 8* on PORTLAND

Philadelphia continues to lead the Eastern Conference with an 18-7 record. Their lead has now grown to two games with Milwaukee losing at Phoenix last night. The Sixers have won six of their last seven games and tonight finds them getting an opportunity to avenge that one loss as they travel to Portland. The Blazers beat them 121-105 last Thursday and that was in Philly. The Blazers were 10-point underdogs in that game and pulled the upset despite not even having Damian Lillard in the lineup! They also didn’t have CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic. What they did have is six players score 14 or more points and a third quarter where they outscored the 76ers 40-19. Lillard will be in the lineup tonight and the game is in Portland where the Blazers just won 106-97 over Orlando Tuesday night. Philly had to rally late to win at Sacramento that same night and you’re going to want to take the points here. This spread is pretty similar to that Sixers-Kings game, which seems ridiculous on the surface as Portland is better than Sacramento. The Blazers are 4-1 straight up and against the spread the last five meetings. Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 10* on INDIANA

Indiana, despite losing four in a row, is still in sixth place in the Eastern Conference. Detroit is at the bottom with a 6-18 record for the season. The Pistons did win Tuesday, over the team that just beat the Pacers last night (Brooklyn). But we’re looking at this as a classic buy low spot on the favorite. While it’s been a rough month so far, the Pacers have played a number of good teams. It’s been awhile since they faced anyone in the same class as Detroit, a team they have actually not faced since the end of 2019! This should be a welcome matchup. Indiana was -24 in free throw attempts compared to Brooklyn last night, a big reason they lost. A big reason why the Pistons beat the Nets is that they were an uncharacteristically hot 56 percent from the floor. This is a team that shoots just 43.3% for the season. Indiana’s starters had only 51 points last night and the team shot 39.1% overall. Again, it’s all about the “buy low” as the Pacers are a better team than the Pistons and should be laying a larger number. Detroit is 0-5 after a win this year. Play on INDIANA

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This is a 10* on OLE MISS

Missouri may be ranked #10 in the country coming into this game, but they are slight underdogs to Ole Miss. Now we were very happy to see the Tigers deliver a 68-65 upset of Alabama over the weekend. They were a big play for us in that game. But it was very concerning how they almost blew all of a 22-point lead and nearly lost, despite the opposition shooting very poorly. Speaking of poor shooting, Missouri hit only 3 of its 20 three-point shots in that game. They’ll take the win, their third in a row, but all of them have been by five points or less and were at home. This is the Tigers’ first time hitting the road since a loss to Auburn on January 26th. They venture into a gym where visitors are averaging only 59.7 points/game. So it’s likely to be another rough shooting night. Over the course of its last six games, Ole Miss has beaten all three teams that have beaten Missouri this season. They held Tennessee to only 50 points in a win here in Oxford last week. Then they went to Auburn and won a high-scoring game in overtime Saturday. Play on MISSISSIPPI

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This is a 10* on GONZAGA

BYU has scored 200 combined points in their last two games. They are getting double digits at home tonight. The question as to whom the Cougars are facing tonight can only have one answer: Gonzaga. The top ranked Zags are 18-0 and have beaten BYU already by 17 points. Actually that score is misleading. They led by as many as 32 in the second half. Gonzaga not only has the nation’s longest active win streak (22 games), but the last 15 have all been decided by double digits. Only one team (West Virginia) this season has been able to stay within 12 of them. After a less than stellar effort in the last game (still won by 18 over Pacific), look for the Zags to come out and make a statement Monday night. Saturday’s game vs. Santa Clara was postponed so that’s extra time they’ve had to stew over the fact they actually trailed Pacific at the half Thursday. BYU’s last five games have all been against Pacific, Pepperdine or Portland, all of whom are horrible and offer little in the way of preparation for what they’ll face here. With only one win by less than 12 points this year (and it was the third game), we will gladly lay the points with the #1 team in the country tonight. Play on GONZAGA

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This is a 10* on WASHINGTON

The Wizards HAVE to be better than this, right? Their 5-15 record is second worst in the Eastern Conference and yesterday’s 119-97 loss at Charlotte was just plain embarrassing. Tonight they try and dust themselves off in Chicago against a Bulls team they’ve already lost to twice this season, both times at home. Those games took place right before the new year and were relatively close. Washington was also a six and seven point favorite in them. This will actually be the Bulls sixth straight game being favored, which is pretty rare. But all those lines have been three points or less and they’re only 2-3. The Wizards have the NBA’s leading scorer in Bradley Beal (33.3 PPG) and are a lock to improve upon Sunday’s atrocious 9 of 40 shooting from three-point range. The Bulls are only 3-7 at home and 2-5 their last seven games overall. We think the road team is better, so it makes sense to grab them as underdogs. Play on WASHINGTON

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This is a 10* on FAIRFIELD

It’s been awhile since we last saw either of these teams. It’s been a two-week absence for Quinnipiac since they defeated Niagara 78-69. For Fairfield, it’s been three weeks since they last played and upset Marist 55-52. Looking at the MAAC standings, you’ll find these two at the bottom. Quinnipiac has just two conference wins while Fairfield has three. Our side is technically in last with seven losses, but Quinnipiac has zero road wins this season and they are on the road today. The Bobcats have lost twice in true road games (both were at Monmouth) and are 0-2 in neutral court games. They are also 4-10 ATS their last 14 on the road. That Quinnipiac is laying points on the road here is very rare and would seem to make for a nice opportunity to fade. Though it’s been three weeks, Fairfield was excellent defensively in their last game as they’d allowed only 39 points with just over seven minutes remaining. The Stags are 20-8 ATS their last 28 games as a home underdog. Play on FAIRFIELD

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This is a 10* on INDIANA

Utah is unquestionably the hottest team in the league right now as they’ve won 14 of the last 15 games. Making the run all the more impressive is the fact all but one of those victories has been by double digits. The one single-digit win happened to be against the team that also beat them last Sunday, Denver. With the best overall record in the Western Conference right now, the Jazz have to be feeling good about themselves. But I view this game as a potential “slip up” as Indiana has got to turn things around. The Pacers have lost two straight and four of five. The last loss was close as they were beaten 114-113 by New Orleans here at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Remember that earlier in the week the Pacers did snap Memphis’ seven-game win streak with an emphatic 134-116 win at home. So there’s a precedent for beating a red-hot team.The Pacers are 5-2 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite. They were -1.5 vs. New Orleans. Play on INDIANA

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This is a 10* on GOLDEN STATE

The Warriors crushed the Mavs on Thursday, winning 147-116. It was the second night of a back to back for Dallas, but that’s still no excuse to be beaten THAT badly, especially since Golden State had just nine players available for that game. Something is just not right with the Mavs, who have now dropped seven of their last eight. The lone victory during that stretch came in Atlanta, the night before getting destroyed by the Warriors. Golden State has yet to win (or lose) three in a row this season. But they have won back to back games five times. In fact, all 10 wins have “come in pairs.” So by that trend, they “should” win tonight. We’ll grab the points just to “be careful,” but it’s certainly difficult to look past what happened the other night and think this will be anything other than an outright win. Dallas is the worst three-point shooting team in the league. They are also just 1-7 against the spread their last eight games. The Warriors were our 10* Game of the Month last Saturday when they blew out the Pistons. They are our top choice again for this week. Play on GOLDEN STATE

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This is a 10* on TEXAS TECH

The Big 12 is so tough this year (six teams are in the top 25). So if you are one of those top teams, you’ve got to take full advantage when you're faced with one of the conference’s couple lightweights. That’s the situation #13 Texas Tech finds itself in today as they get set to take on Kansas State. The Red Raiders are only 5-4 SU vs. the rest of the Big 12, which has them in 6th. But you should expect them to move up the standings after today’s tilt in Manhattan. Kansas State is really bad as they’ve now lost nine in a row. Most of the games haven’t been close either as the Wildcats’ ATS record is 4-13 including 0-5 L5. They are 1-10 ATS at home. The last four Big 12 games for KSU have resulted in losses by 23, 48, 22 and 26 points. They did actually stay within 11 of Texas Tech last month in Lubbock. But that was before the “bottom dropped out” on the season. The Wildcats’ have the second most starts in the country by true freshman and injuries/COVID have really taken hold of the roster. The last five games have seen Kansas State average 53.6 points. Texas Tech should keep them around that number and cover easily. Play on TEXAS TECH

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This is an 8* on LOYOLA CHICAGO

Two teams stand above the rest this year in the Missouri Valley. They are #25 Drake and Loyola Chicago. Though the former is ranked and undefeated, our view (and the view of most in the College Basketball community) is that Loyola is better. The Ramblers can prove that NEXT weekend when they’ll play two at Drake, but for now they get a pair of games vs. Evansville. This should be a guaranteed two wins this weekend for the Ramblers. It’s a big number Saturday, but we’ll lay it considering that Loyola is 12-3 ATS in all games this season, including 12-1 when favored and 6-0 at home. Last weekend, they won by 26 and 20 at Missouri State. They’re winning their home games by a margin of 28.5 points/game. None of their previous eight opponents have reached 60 points as this is one of the premier defensive teams in the country. That’s bad news for an Evansville squad averaging only 64 points on the road this season. The Purple Aces have just one road win and aren’t going to be competitive here. Play on LOYOLA CHICAGO

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THIS IS AN 8* ON MISSOURI

These are the two top teams in the SEC, but right now there’s a huge gap between Alabama and everybody else. The Crimson Tide moved to 10-0 in conference play with another convincing win against LSU earlier this week. Looking across the country, you’re not going to find many teams that have a 10-0 record in their conference. But this is a stiff test for Bama as they head to Missouri on Saturday. The Tigers just took care of Kentucky on Wednesday to move to 12-3 overall this season. While G Pickett got injured vs. Kentucky, the Tigers have four double digit scorers that can more than account for his possible absence. Remember that last weekend Alabama lost to an Oklahoma team that didn’t have its leading scorer. Missouri has lost just once at home this season and that was to Tennessee. Alabama was picked to finish 10th (in the SEC!) in the preseason poll and we don’t see them going undefeated. This looks to be their toughest remaining game. Play on MISSOURI

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This is a 10* on BOSTON

Boston is playing its third straight game on the West Coast and they hope it goes more like the first one than the second. They started this trip by defeating the Warriors 111-107 as a 2-point favorite. The following night they lost 116-111 at Sacramento (were favored by 1 pt). Tonight they are an underdog at the Clippers, who have won all but two of their previous 13 games. They are tied with the Lakers (17-6) for 2nd in the Western Conference, trailing Utah by one-half game. Boston is 4th in the East. Key here is the Celtics are 5-3 ATS as underdogs with four outright wins. Coming off a long road trip, the Clips may be prone to a letdown in this situation and it’s a decent number they are laying to a good team. They are only 4-5-1 ATS as home favorites and 7-8-1 ATS off a win. They don’t have point guard Patrick Beverely in this contest and we can’t see them shooting as well from three tonight as they did against Cleveland. Play on BOSTON

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This is a 10* on CS NORTHRIDGE

Prior to the last two weeks, Cal Davis had gotten only four games in all season and all four were prior to December 5th. They are just 1-3 since returning to action and lost twice at home last weekend to UCSB. Therefore, it’s hard for us to believe they are laying points on the road here. Cal State Northridge is by no means a good team, but the Matadors have at least been playing regularly enough to have a rhythm coming into this Friday night matchup. They are 6-7 and off a 64-51 win at Cal Poly last Saturday. One thing to like about this team is that it doesn’t turn the ball over much. Their turnover rate is second lowest among Big West teams. Cal Davis has yet to cover as a favorite this year and the last time they laid points on the road, they lost by 20. Going back to last year, the Aggies are 0-4-1 ATS their last five as favorites. CS-Northridge is 6-2 ATS off a straight up win and the home team has captured the cash in four of the last five meetings. Play on CS NORTHRIDGE

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This is an 8* on JACKSONVILLE

Jacksonville has lost five in a row, however, four of those losses have come by six points or less. Tonight they try to play spoiler against Bellarmine, who is one of three teams tied atop the Atlantic Sun with a 6-2 conference record. Bellarmine has won six in a row, four of the wins coming on the road. But it’s worth pointing out that those six wins all came against the bottom three teams in the league. Jacksonville just got done facing the other top two, Liberty and North Alabama. So the recent records are a little misleading on both ends here. Bellarmine’s last two wins were against Kennesaw State, who is 0-10 in conference play. Despite shooting 60% in their last game, the Knights won by only five. You’ll want to take the points here. Play on JACKSONVILLE

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This is a 10* on IOWA

This is a top 10 matchup out of the Big 10 with #8 Iowa hosting #7 Ohio State. Despite being ranked one spot lower, Iowa is better. Considering that and the fact they are the home team, the Hawkeyes look like a solid value to lay the points with tonight. Now while they avoided what would have been a three-game losing streak by beating Michigan State on Tuesday, Iowa failed to cover the 9.5-point spread. (They won 84-78). So it’s three games in a row they haven’t covered. But the fact the team has lost just one time at home and is averaging 90.8 points per game at Carver-Hawkeye is definitely encouraging. Ohio State is also off a win over Michigan State, theirs coming by a score of 79-62. That was in Columbus though. We just don’t think the Buckeyes are going to produce enough offensive firepower to keep up with the Player of the Year (Luke Garza) and the Hawkeyes. Lay it! Play on IOWA

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This is a 10* on INDIANA

Indiana looked really good last night, beating a Memphis team that had previously won seven in a row. The Grizzlies were playing on the second night of a back to back, but the Pacers made it look easy with a 134-116 victory. They shot nearly 60% for the game and now must avoid the same fate that befell their opponents last night as they play without rest. Milwaukee is the opponent, so it won’t be easy, but the Bucks are just 3-4 SU L7 games. Also no one on the Pacers logged more than 35 minutes last night. Playing on back to back days hasn’t been a problem before. They are actually 3-0 straight up and against the spread in such games this season. They are also 4-2 SU and ATS as an underdog. While the Bucks started this homestand by drubbing Portland 134-106, that may not be a good thing as they are 0-3 ATS this season if they scored 130 or more in their last game. Play on INDIANA

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This is a 10* on FLORIDA

Florida had its season paused in late December, but has really started to get on track of late. An impressive win at Morgantown (West Virginia) on Saturday was the fourth straight game the Gators have been the victors. The 85-80 win over the 11th ranked team in the country also got them in the Top 25 (#22). Now they turn around and will host South Carolina this evening. The Gamecocks have only played 10 games this season and are 4-6. They were not a participant in the Big 12 vs. SEC Challenge, but lost over the weekend anyway (at Vanderbilt). That was the fourth loss in five games. South Carolina has lost both games vs. ranked teams this year, neither of which ended up being particularly close. They lost by 11 at Missouri and by 23 to Auburn. One could make the case that Florida is better than those teams. South Carolina has also lost four straight road games, by an average of 9.5 points/game. Florida has won its last three at home by an average of 14 points. Too many injuries for South Carolina to compete vs. a team that just beat two top 15 teams (Tenn, WVU). Play on FLORIDA

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This is a 10* on PORTLAND

Portland played a terrible game last night in Milwaukee, losing 134-106. The Bucks were coming off two straight losses, a rarity for them, but still there’s rarely an excuse for losing by 28 points. Tonight the Blazers face a Washington team that’s off a shocking win as they defeated Brooklyn 149-147 (a game that ended in regulation!) Saturday night. That was the Wizards’ first win since returning from a long COVID-induced layoff. They’d lost four in a row prior and were beaten soundly in all four games. That they were behind by five with just 10 seconds left against Brooklyn means the Wizards are quite lucky not to be on a 5-game losing streak here. We’re a bit surprised that they are the favorites tonight. Yes the game is in D.C. but the Wizards still have one of the worst records in the NBA at 4-12 SU. Portland has taken the last three meetings. Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 10* on TENNESSEE

Tennessee flexed its muscle over the weekend, beating Kansas 80-61, and is now back in the Top 10. Tonight the Vols are at Ole Miss. We’re a bit shocked this line isn’t higher. The Rebels have lost five of seven. While some of those losses were close, none were to teams as good as this.They are not one of the SEC’s better teams. It can’t be understated just how good Tennessee looked on Saturday. They were up 14 by halftime and led by as much as 26 in the second half. They did not allow a single second-chance point! We realize they haven’t had to go on the road very often, but they did win by 20 at Missouri (who is ranked) and by 17 at Texas A&M. A big reason why Ole Miss is losing games is the three-point line. They are shooting 25.9% from long distance in SEC play. Their opponents are shooting 37.4%. This problem reared its ugly head again on Saturday as they were only 2 of 13 from three-point range vs. Georgia, who was 9 of 18. Tennessee is holding opponents to 30% on three pointers. They should win easily tonight. Play on TENNESSEE

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This is a 10* on NEW ORLEANS

New Orleans certainly did right by me on Friday. They were able to defeat Milwaukee, right here at home, by a score of 131-126. That scoring output matched the most points allowed by the Bucks in any game this season. So it was a really impressive victory for the Pelicans. Unfortunately, they had to play the next night and lost 126-112 to Houston. That makes it nine losses in the last 12 games for a team that was expected to make the playoffs this year. Sacramento is not a team anyone expects to make the playoffs, so this is a game the Pelicans “have to have.” They’re laying a surprisingly short number, partly because the Kings are 4-0 ATS their last four games, but we’ll lay it. The Kings are just dreadful defensively despite a low-scoring loss in Miami over the weekend. No team in the league allows more points per possession and it’s not really close. The 119.6 points/game allowed by the Kings are the most in the Western Conference. Play on NEW ORLEANS

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This is an 8* on MEMPHIS

Memphis saw its three-game win streak come to an end on Thursday with a two-point loss at SMU. They did cover the spread though as four point underdogs. It was the fourth consecutive cover by the Tigers, who were 2-9 ATS in their first 11 lined games. Having a couple extra days to prepare for this game with struggling UCF seems like a big deal. The Golden Knights have won only one time in their last seven games and it was against a terrible East Carolina team at home. UCF did play over the weekend and lost in overtime at Wichita State as they let a late eight-point lead slip away. There have been a lot of games this year where the Knights failed to crack 65 points and this figures to be another with Memphis allowing only 59.0 per game at home where they are 7-1 straight up. UCF has lost 12 of its previous 13 visits to Memphis, including by 20 the last time they came here. Play on MEMPHIS

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This is a 10* on EASTERN WASHINGTON

Eastern Washington started the season 0-3 but has since won 4 of 7 with the three losses all being by five points or less. Last weekend saw the Eagles split a couple games out in Northern Colorado as they lost the first by two points and won the second by six. There haven’t been many home games for the Eagles thus far, only three to be exact, so they should relish the opportunity Sunday when they welcome Sacramento State. The Hornets have also played many close games recently with three of their last four decided by six points or fewer and two of them going to overtime. So a lot of people are going to expect a close game here. But the line, which has EWU favored pretty strongly, is telling. Sacramento State may be 6-3 but they’ve played only three times on the road. They’ve lost two of them. They’ve also lost 9 of the last 10 matchups with Eastern Washington. These teams were actually supposed to play Thursday, but a positive COVID test on the Sacramento State forced a schedule change to Sunday & Monday. The disruption will affect the Hornets more as they have to travel. Play on EASTERN WASHINGTON

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This is a 10* on GOLDEN STATE

There is an interesting pattern this year with Golden State as they have yet to win or lose three in a row. Thursday marked the fifth time they failed to win a third straight game. They lost by 21 at Phoenix, a shocking failure as it was only a five-point deficit at halftime. The problem was that other than Steph Curry and Andrew Wiggins, the rest of the team shot just 32 percent (22 of 68). There have been three times so far that the Warriors have lost back to back games. However, each time the second loss came on the road. And those losses were all to really good teams: Milwaukee, Denver and Utah. Tonight they are facing a bad Detroit team and the game is at home. The Pistons are 1-7 on the road and allow 119.0 points per game. Fresh off an upset of the Lakers at home, we say the Pistons are ripe to get blown out Saturday night. When they beat the Lakers, there was no Anthony Davis. LeBron James went uncharacteristically cold in the second half. Curry won’t be cold in this game considering the Pistons defensive woes on the road. The Warriors already beat the Pistons by 10 in Detroit last month. Play on GOLDEN STATE

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This is a 10* on PURDUE

While we recognize Purdue is at home, any time an unranked team is favored against a Top 25 opponent, it catches our eye. Minnesota isn’t likely to be ranked for much longer, especially if they lose this game. Our money is on the Golden Gophers losing. Not only did they go down at home to Maryland last Saturday, they are 0-4 on the road this season. They could manage only 49 points vs. the Terps last week. All four road losses have been by at least 12 points. Why are they ranked again? Now Purdue is also looking to bounce back from an ugly loss. They lost by 17 to Michigan last Friday, here in West Lafayette. But that was preceded by a four-game win streak and it was their first home loss. Minnesota is giving up an average of 82.7 points on the road. Leading scorer Carr played the full 40 last Saturday vs. Maryland and scored 25 points. But his teammates could only manage 24 points on 6 of 32 shooting. Look for the Gophers to go down again. Play on PURDUE

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This is an 8* on MISSOURI

Missouri is off their third loss of the season. They’ve performed quite well off the previous two. After losing by 20 to Tennessee, they came back and won on the road by 13 against Arkansas. After losing by 15 at Mississippi State, they came back and won by 16 at Texas A&M. This time the Tigers get to play at home and they got a fortunate draw in the Big 12 vs. SEC Challenge with TCU, who is one of the Big 12’s weaker teams. The Horned Frogs just played their first game in 16 days Thursday and they lost 58-51 at Kansas. After such a long layoff (coach Jamie Dixon had tested positive for COVID), let’s see how they do playing a second road game in three days. Our guess is that it won’t go well. Missouri’s loss on Thursday was to a surging Auburn team that is better than most realize. A poor 1st half cost Mizzou but at home they won’t be getting off to a slow start and they shouldn’t have much problem shutting down a TCU team that averages only 62.9 points away from home. Play on MISSOURI

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This is a 9* on ST. PETERS

Manhattan has won three straight games. They were an underdog in all three wins. The last two were at home vs. Niagara. But those games were played almost two weeks ago. They were supposed to play two vs. Monmouth last week, but those games got postponed due to a positive test in the Monmouth program. Playing with this much rest hasn’t gone well for the Jaspers as they are 8-21 ATS the last 29 times they’ve gone on seven or more days' rest. Let’s also talk about the fact that two of their three recent wins were by three points or less. They didn’t even score 60 points in any of them. Then again, St. Peter’s just scored only 40 in a loss at Siena. But something you should know is that this is the Peacocks’ first home game since December 12th! They’ve played seven in a row on the road. They’ve played only three home games, won all of them, and allowed just 51, 54 and 49 points. It’s quite telling that they are such prohibitive favorites here. Manhattan is just 2-7 ATS their previous nine road games. They are shooting an abysmal 32.8% on the road this season. Play on ST PETERS

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This is a 10* on NEW ORLEANS

Milwaukee is off a fairly big win over Toronto. This is the middle game of a three-game road trip. New Orleans just won, 124-106 against Washington. That was just their second win in 10 games. The Pelicans have only gotten to play six home games though. They are 3-3 in those six, not that great, but the Bucks are only 4-4 on the road. Playing on ESPN, you figure the Pelicans are going to come out highly motivated. The Bucks are just 5-15-1 ATS off a win and 2-6-1 ATS off an ATS win. New Orleans has been a home underdog only one time and they won that game, 120-116 over Toronto. They were actually only a one-point dog in that game. This is likely to be the most points they get in any home game this season (or at least until they play the Lakers). Even though they are just 2-8 the last 10 games, the Pelicans have only been outscored by an average of less than five points per game. Play on NEW ORLEANS

This is a 10* on GOLDEN STATE

Both the Warriors and Suns were in action last night. The respective results were quite different. Golden State handled its business at home against Minnesota, winning rather easily by a score of 123-111. Rookie James Wiseman led the way with 25 points after Steph Curry had 36 the previous game vs. the Timberwolves. Off that two-game sweep, Golden State now goes to the desert where they’ll face a wounded Suns team that is playing without leading scorer Devin Booker. Last night marked the third straight loss for Phoenix as they fell 102-97 here at home to Oklahoma City. It also marked the fifth loss in the last six games and seventh in the last 10. Last night was especially frustrating for the Suns as they jumped out to an early 17-point lead. But that didn’t last long. Booker isn’t the only one not playing for the Suns right now. Dario Sakic has been out due to COVID, so this team is pretty short-handed right now. You have to imagine that Curry is going to have a bounce back game tonight after missing his first seven shots last night. That’s bad news for a struggling Suns team that is just 1-5 ATS its last six games as a favorite. Play on GOLDEN STATE

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This is a 10* on SAN DIEGO

Top-ranked Gonzaga continues to “hum along” as they are 15-0 following a 95-49 win against Pacific last Saturday. There has been only one game all season - an 87-82 win vs. West Virginia on December 2nd - that the Zags DIDN’T win by double digits. But they don’t cover as much as you might think. The win against Pacific marked the first time in five games that Mark Few’s team left with the cash. They are just 5-8 ATS the last 13 games as the pointspreads keeping getting higher and higher. The Bulldogs are laying a huge number tonight at San Diego, which is understandable given the Toreros’ record and general inactivity. They’ve played only eight games this season and won just two. But one of the wins was on Saturday as they defeated Portland 78-70 on the road. They won’t win tonight, but this is a ton of points to be getting at home. Gonzaga has just one WCC win - Saturday’s game vs Pacific - that was by a larger margin than what tonight’s spread will end up being. They are just 4-8 ATS on the road laying at least 12.5 and 0-2 laying at least 24.5. Play on SAN DIEGO

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This is a 8* on KANSAS

Kansas has lost three in a row, all on the road, so they should be in “desperation mode” come Thursday night at Allen Fieldhouse. They’ll be taking on a TCU team that has also lost its last three games, but has not played in 16 days. That’s because of coach Jamie Dixon testing positive for COVID-19, so this team is all out of sorts right now. The Horned Frogs’ three-game losing streak actually began at the hands of Kansas, a 93-64 result in Fort Worth. Since then they’ve lost by 18 to Baylor and by 36 at Oklahoma. This game was supposed to be played Tuesday before getting bumped back due to protocols. The extra 48 hours isn’t nearly enough for TCU to avoid the beatdown they’ve got coming to them. Again, they’ve already lost by 29 at home to Kansas. This is only the third 3-game losing streak for the Jayhawks in the past 25 seasons. They’ve never lost four in a row during that time. At home, their PPG allowed drops down to 63.6. It should be noted that it was three good teams they lost to on the road, Oklahoma State, Baylor and Oklahoma. It’s not as if they were blown out in any of them. All will be well again in Lawrence after tonight. Play on KANSAS

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This is an 8* on COLORADO STATE

Boise State is as hot as any team in the country not named Gonzaga or Baylor. The Broncos have won 13 in a row. They are unbeaten in the Mountain West, although we should be clear that they have yet to face any of the top teams in the conference. That changes on Wednesday with a visit to Fort Collins. Colorado State has already knocked off Utah State, who also had been unbeaten in conference play. That was the last time the Rams played and they are now the third place team, trailing only Boise and Utah State. CSU is 8-2 in conference play and we like the fact they are undefeated at home (6-0) where they average 82.2 points/game.Look for the Rams to jump out to a big halftime advantage in this one. They are the best team Boise has faced since a season opening loss to Houston. Play on COLORADO STATE

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This is an 8* on BOSTON

After a three-game losing streak that saw them lose twice to the 76ers and in embarrassing fashion to the Knicks, Boston has battled back to win its last two games in very convincing fashion. They took care of the Cavs 141-103 and then the Bulls 119-103. Tonight they are in San Antonio to face a Spurs team that was supposed to play Monday in New Orleans, but didn’t due to COVID-19 protocols. The Spurs last played Sunday when they blew out a Washington team that was playing its first game in two weeks. Before that, the Spurs had lost two straight. With COVID now impacting them, we don’t see the Spurs playing well tonight. Jayson Tatum is now back for the Celtics, who are 4-1 ATS their last five as favorites. It appears that we don’t need to worry about this game not being played. So we’ll lay the points. Play on BOSTON

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This is a 10* on FLORIDA STATE

Florida State is now ranked #16 in the country. The Seminoles are 9-2 and have won their last four games. The current win streak began with a truly dominating effort where they defeated North Carolina State 105-73. That was the last time we took them. Since then, they’ve rolled North Carolina, Louisville and Clemson. The last two were double digit wins with the Louisville one being particularly impressive as it came on the road. Tonight they welcome Miami to Tallahassee and the Hurricanes are coming off an awful week where they lost 83-57 at Syracuse and 73-59 at home to Notre Dame. Those kind of putrid offensive efforts won’t cut it here. It is especially disconcerting that they could only score 59 against Notre Dame, who is not good defensively. FSU is 8-1 at home and winning by an average of almost 13 points/game. Miami is one of the weaker teams in the ACC this year, so this should be a third straight double digit victory by the Noles. They’ve beaten Miami five straight times, by an average of 10 points. They lead the ACC in points per game at home and have averaged 86.3 their last four at home. Play on FLORIDA STATE

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This is a 10* on UTAH 

Utah is the hottest team in the league right now. They are 8-0 straight up and against the spread in their last eight games. Do not expect any kind of letdown this evening as they are up against the last team to defeat them. Surprisingly, that team is New York. It was on January 6th that the Knicks upset the Jazz 112-100. They were eight-point underdogs at home for that matchup, which saw them trail by as much as 18 at one point. The shocking comeback saw the Knicks outscore the Jazz 68-44 in the second half. But that’s clearly not what you should expect here. Utah led by as many as 40 points Saturday vs. Golden State and won by 19. New York ended up only losing by three Sunday in Portland, but was behind by as many as 25 at one point before pulling off the “backdoor cover.” The Knicks have now lost 7 of 10 as they continue to be wildly inconsistent. We do not fear the possibility of a back door cover this time as the Jazz are out for revenge and have won by double digits in seven of the eight games during the active win streak. Play on UTAH

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This is a 10* on AKRON

Akron comes in at 8-3 on the season. They are a perfect 6-0 at home. They’ve been red hot lately, winning and covering four straight. A 78.9 points per game scoring average is impressive and it gets even more impressive when you look at only home games as they are averaging 87.0 in those. Eastern Michigan’s resume is quite different. The Eagles have not won a game away from home this season. They are 1-6 ATS in conference play and have lost four in a row by an average of 20.25 points (0-4 ATS). In the previous four road games, you’re looking at an average of 86.5 points/game allowed. Shockingly, EMU won the first meeting between the teams, 71-59 as a 5.5-point dog. But that was obviously in Ypsilanti. So the revenge factor is strong here and we’ve got every reason to believe this Tuesday night matchup in the MAC turns into a blowout. Credit to Akron for allowing their previous opponents to shoot just 28.9% from three-point range this season. That number probably won’t go up after tonight as EMU is shooting just 28.3% from behind the arc, including a woeful 23.5% when on the road. Akron’s average margin of victory at home is 16.2 PPG. Could these teams be any more different heading into this one? Play on AKRON

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This is a 10* on PORTLAND

Portland didn’t cover the spread last night, but they certainly should have. They led the Knicks by 20 points at halftime only to let that large lead slip away. They won 116-113 as a 3.5-point favorite after scoring just 19 points in the fourth quarter. Tonight they face another bad team, Oklahoma City, who is also playing the second game of a back to back. The Thunder lost Sunday, 108-100 to the Clippers, to fall to 1-5 SU their last 6 games. The only win was by two points at Chicago. Though playing short-handed (no McCollum, Jurkic), we still give the advantage here to the Blazers. The Thunder aren’t a good team. They trailed by 17 on Sunday before making the game closer than it actually was. The same was true in their previous game vs. the Clippers. So it’s very much the opposite for Portland, who played much better last night than what the final score says. Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 10* on PORTLAND

The Knicks are 8-9 and holding down 8th place in the Eastern Conference, which is a lot better than where we thought they’d be at this point of the season. Generally regarded as one of the worst teams in the league coming into the season, New York has been an underdog in virtually all of its games thus far. They’d pulled three consecutive upsets prior to losing 103-94 in Sacramento Friday night. But one easy thing to note here is that they are last in the league in points per game. Portland, who is dealing with some injuries right now, is 8-6 and fourth in the Western Conference. They haven’t played since Monday when they were defeated 125-104 by San Antonio. The Blazers were supposed to face Memphis Wednesday and Friday, but those games had to be cancelled due to the Grizzlies’ COVID-19 issues. "Between getting extra rest and extra reps, the practices have been good for us,"Portland head coach Terry Stotts said. "It helped. There is no question that having extra time to work on things on both ends -- we need to adjust. Different guys will have different roles. From that standpoint, missing these two games was good for us." We’ll put our faith in what the coach had to say as it’s unlikely the Knicks can continue winning regularly. They are 2-6 ATS their last eight games in Portland. Play on PORTLAND

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THIS IS A 10* ON SAN DIEGO STATE

By the time Tuesday rolls around, San Diego State and Air Force will have met in three straight games. Here in Colorado Springs, they are used to see things “flying high,” but in this case it’s the Aztecs who came in and took the first game 98-61 as 13-point favorites. That win snapped a 4-game ATS slide and was a nice bounce back for a team that has just gotten swept the week prior by Utah State. The Mountain West is shaping up as a fairly strong league this year with the likes of Boise State, Utah State, Colorado State plus SDSU. Air Force is simply not in the same class as those teams as they are now 0-5 against them with all five losses coming by double digits. The Falcons have won just one time in the last seven games and aren’t even averaging 60 PPG this season. No team in the country takes fewer shots per game. They’ve also given up 77 or more points in five of the last six losses. San Diego State is excellent defensively and is giving up less than 60 PPG on the road. They’ve covered 14 of the last 17 on the road. Five players were in double figures Thursday as the Aztecs picked it up with leading scorer Matt Mitchell on the shelf. More of the same Sunday. Play on SAN DIEGO STATE

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This is a 10* on GOLDEN STATE

Utah is on a 7-0 SU/ATS run here, but actually had to rally from a double digit deficit to win against New Orleans Thursday night. We were glad to see that seeing as we were on the Jazz, but it’s time to reverse course Saturday when Golden State comes to town. As good as Utah has been recently, not sure it’s going to continue over the course of the season. They’ve beaten some bad teams during this win streak. Against opponents that come in at .500 or better, they are just 3-3 straight up and 2-4 against the spread. Golden State hasn’t done well as a favorite so far, but the last time they were an underdog, they upset the Lakers Monday night. That was a Lakers team that, like the Jazz here, were on a big winning streak. The Warriors suffered an embarrassing defeat in their last game, to the Knicks, and you know they’re going to want to bounce back from that. Before that, they’d not only beaten the Lakers, but also the Spurs by 22 points. Take the points in this matchup. Play on GOLDEN STATE

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This is an 8* on DUKE

Duke simply has not been good this year as they are 5-4 SU and 1-8 ATS. Dealing with COVID-19 hasn’t helped and here the Blue Devils hope to avoid an 0-3 road trip when they head to Louisville. The home team has its own problems right now as they’ve also lost two in a row, though the last one came at home to Florida State by 13 points. Only one of these traditional powers can get off the mat Saturday and it’s interesting that this is just the second time this season that Duke is an underdog. We’re seeing value in the number here. This is the first time they’ve lost two straight and you’ve got to think they’ll shoot better as a team here than they did vs. Pitt earlier in the week. Jalen Johnson had a monster effort in that game, going for 24 points, 15 rebounds, seven assists, four blocks and zero turnovers. Duke is the more talented team here. Louisville does not shoot the three well and actually trailed Florida State 40-16 in the first half on Monday. The road team has won the last two times these schools have faced off. Why can’t it be three in a row? Play on DUKE

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This is a 10* on NC STATE

North Carolina State is in desperation mode here as they’re off to an 0-3 start to 2021. Fortunately for the Wolfpack, this is a down year in the ACC and rival UNC isn’t doing much better. The Tar Heels are just 1-6 ATS in ACC play and that includes a 79-76 loss in Raleigh right before Christmas. North Carolina has won four of its last five games straight up, however all of those wins came by seven or less and two were by a combined three points. So this team isn’t winning by any kind of margin right now and we’ll back the underdog. This is NC State’s 1st game in 10 days due to a pair of COVID-19 postponements. Last time we saw them, we faded and boy was that a smart decision as they lost by 32 at Florida State, 105-73 as a 3.5-point underdog. There’s no way to dress that loss up, but we see no reason why the Wolfpack should be getting more points from UNC than they were from FSU. Prior to that season-worst showing, NC State’s last four games had all been decided by five or less. Florida State somehow shot 70.7% against them, something no future opponent will do, including UNC. They’ve beaten the Tar Heels once and can do it again. Play on NC STATE

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This is an 8* on UT ARLINGTON

Texas Arlington watched its three-game win streak come to an end last Saturday as they fell into a huge halftime hole against Louisiana and never recovered. Now 3-3 in the Sun Belt, the Mavericks are tied with the team they face tonight, Little Rock, in the West Division. Little Rock has dropped three of four including two to first place Texas State last weekend. Three of those four games, including the one win, were decided by four points or less. But the pointspread won’t be a factor tonight and we don’t think the Trojans have enough offense to keep pace. They are 1-6 ATS playing with five or six days rest. They are also 4-13 ATS off their last 17 conference losses. TX-Arlington averages 87.8 points/game at home this year so they must be respected here and we don’t see them losing for a third time this season to Little Rock. Those first two games, played at the start of 2021, were played in Little Rock. The Trojans starting PG (Nowell) is suspended. Play on UT ARLINGTON

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This is a 10* on UC IRVINE

Cal Poly is not a good team, something that should be readily apparent via their 2-8 won-loss record. The Mustangs show up tonight on a six-game losing streak and the last five (losses) have all come by at least 13 points. They are also 0-5-1 ATS during the losing streak. Their only two wins were against a non-board team (Bethesda) back in November and San Jose State last month. San Jose State is a dreadful team and they only won that game by 4. The Mustangs have five losses by at least 17 points this year. So Cal Irvine has to be licking its chops Friday as they look to continue to a four-game win streak.This is the Anteaters first game in almost two weeks, so they’re fresh. Meanwhile, Cal Poly lost twice at home last week. On the road, they are barely scoring 50 points/game! Cal Irvine is 4-0 at home, averaging 84.2 points while giving up only 58.0. Expect a very one-sided affair. Play on UC IRVINE

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This is a 10* on UTAH

We learned our lesson in the previous matchup between these teams, which went down Tuesday and saw the Jazz emerge victorious by a score of 118-102. They covered the spread too, as 6.5-point favorites. It was the sixth straight win and cover for a Utah team that is playing as well as anyone in the league right now. We had the Pelicans Tuesday, but not again here as they can’t seem to buy a victory with just one in the previous seven games. In its last five games, Utah has given up an average of just 94.2 points. New Orleans hasn’t been good offensively, save for the win against Sacramento, who happens to be the worst defensive team in the NBA. The Jazz have become absolutely lethal from behind the three-point line, a fact the Pelicans know all too well as they helplessly watched the Jazz make 21 3PA on Tuesday. It was the fourth time in the last six games Utah made at least 20 threes! This is very much the third best team in the West right now. Play on UTAH

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This is an 8* on IOWA

Iowa is a really good basketball team. Ranked #4 in the country (and deservedly so), the Hawkeyes have won five straight games and covered the spread in all five. Four of the five wins have come by double digit margins. Tonight they host an Indiana team that is coming off a very disappointing home loss to Purdue last Thursday. The Hoosiers were four-point favorites in that one and expected to snap a 7-game losing streak to the Boilermakers, but instead were dealt an 81-69 defeat. They were then supposed to play Michigan State on Sunday, but that was postponed. While shooting just 3 of 18 from behind the 3-point line certainly hurt against Purdue, a much graver concern tonight for IU is the fact they’ve surrendered an average of 78.7 points the last three games. Iowa is as good as it gets offensively, leading the Big 10 in scoring at 92.2 points/game. They’ve got a Player of the Year candidate in Luke Garza and have covered 10 of the 12 games they’ve been favored in this season. Lay it! Play on IOWA

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This is a 10* on ATLANTA

The Hawks are still looking to regain that early season form. Monday’s 108-97 win against Minnesota was definitely a “step in the right direction” and now they can get back to .500 with a win today over Detroit, which shouldn’t be difficult considering the Pistons are the worst team in the league. The spread isn’t even that high. Atlanta began the year 4-1 but has lost six of eight. Both wins were at home though and the Pistons have just one road win so far and it came against a severely depleted Miami Heat squad. Detroit is just 3-10 SU overall following a loss to the Heat on Monday. Atlanta won 128-120 when these teams played on December 28th and while they failed to cover, that’s because they were laying 11 points. The line is much shorter this time, probably due to recent form, but the Pistons very much remain a terrible team while we believe the Hawks are among the league’s most improved squads this season. Play on ATLANTA

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This is a 10* on NEW ORLEANS

The Jazz have looked really good of late, not only winning - but also covering - five in a row. The win streak began with an upset in Milwaukee, but since then it’s been four straight as favorites. They are laying points again tonight vs. a New Orleans team that just ended a five-game LOSING streak by defeating Sacramento 128-123 on Sunday. This is the first of two games these teams will play over the next three days. While it won’t be as easy for Pelicans to score here as it was Sunday, we still like them plus the points in this scenario as each of the previous four meetings have been close with two of them decided by just two points each. Just not convinced that Utah is as dominant as they’ve looked recently, plus this is kind of a letdown spot following the win in Denver Sunday, which was a big revenge game stemming from last year’s playoffs. The Jazz are only 2-2 SU at home. They are just 6-14-2 ATS L22 here. Three Pelicans topped 20 points on Sunday. Play on NEW ORLEANS

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This is a 10* on MIAMI OH

Miami hosts Ball State for some Tuesday night “MACtion” and the RedHawks will be looking to bounce back from a 17-point defeat to their rivals (Ohio) last week. That loss took place on the road where the team is now 0-3 on the year and not looked good. But at home, the RedHawks have gone a solid 4-1. The one loss did come in conference play, vs. Buffalo, but a win their last time here (70-58 over N Illinois) was sufficient enough for us to believe they can win here, or at least cover the spread. Ball State is 6-5 SU but they’ve gotten to play N Illinois twice so far (N Illinois is very bad). Considering they’ve lost four games by double digits, the Cardinals don’t exactly appear to be a strong road favorite, a role they’ve been in only one other time this season … against (you guessed it) N Illinois. Miami does an excellent job at forcing turnovers and limiting second-chance opportunities. Their problem has been the opponents can’t seem to miss. In three league games, they’ve allowed a shooting percentage of 52.4, but our view is that number HAS to come down. Home team has covered four of the last five meetings and Miami is 11-4-1 ATS L16 as a home dog. Play on MIAMI

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This is an 8* on BROOKLYN

This might be the last time this season we see Brooklyn as a home underdog. We’ll seize the opportunity. James Harden’s first game with the Nets probably couldn’t have gone much better as he notched a triple double and Kevin Durant scored 42 points. Admittedly, that was against the Magic. But having two players like Harden and Durant make the Nets a top three team in the league. Kyrie Irving, whose status is questionable, becomes more “expendable” with the arrival of Harden. While the Bucks have won seven of eight, three of those wins were versus Detroit. They too beat Orlando, as well as bad teams like Chicago and Cleveland. Really, the only “good” team they’ve beaten recently was Dallas on Friday and that win came by just three points. This is a big statement game for a Brooklyn team that has lost eight straight times at home to the Bucks. That streak ends tonight. Play on BROOKLYN

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This is a 10* on PORTLAND

San Antonio and Portland’s recent form is quite similar as both won Saturday in come from behind fashion. The Spurs have five of their last seven games while the Blazers have won five of six. In both cases, strong play at the defensive end keyed the Saturday victories. The Spurs actually found themselves down double digits in the first half to a very undermanned Houston squad (who had just eight players suit up) before taking control late. Portland trailed Atlanta by seven at the break but allowed just 20 points in the third and fourth quarters. We side with the home team in this MLK Day afternoon game. The Spurs have been strong on the road (5-2) thus far, but did lose at Minnesota as a favorite. We found it curious to see them favored in this one. Maybe that’s because of the injuries, but Damian Lillard is still here and his 36 points led the way vs. Atlanta. The Spurs are just 8-20-1 ATS their last 29 games as a favorite. Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 10* on MARSHALL

These Conference USA teams are playing for the second time in three days. Only this time, the game is in Huntington, WV. On Friday, it was Western Kentucky winning at home, 81-73, to snap a 5-game ATS losing streak. The Hilltoppers are now 10-4 straight up, but only 4-10 against the spread. Marshall is now 7-3 SU and has not lost two straight this season. Off a loss, they’ve won by 14 and by 7. They are also 4-1 at home where they average 82.2 points/game. The big difference in Friday’s game came at the free throw line where WKU went 19 of 21 while Marshall was only 2 of 5. Now the home team, the Thundering Herd will not be facing a discrepancy like that again. They’ve lost four straight to WKU, so the revenge angle goes beyond just Friday. It’s not like Marshall is a drastically inferior side. In fact, they are favored, a role they’ve won in 35 of the past 47 times. With such a short number, we won’t hesitate to lay it as WKU has not covered two straight games since it opened the season 2-0. Also, the Hilltoppers are 0-2 this season when facing a team for the second time. They failed to sweep both La Tech and Charlotte after winning the first game of a two-game set. Play on MARSHALL

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This is a 10* on MIAMI

The Pistons didn’t play last night because their scheduled opponent (Washington) didn’t have enough players. Tonight they are set to face another team ravaged by COVID, Miami, who has had eight players miss the previous two games. Despite that disadvantage, the Heat hung tough in both games vs. Philadelphia. The first game went to overtime and while the second was a 17-point loss, we think they’re better than that. If there was ever a team the Heat could hope to face here, it would be Detroit, who is NOT better than its 2-9 record. Their only two wins have been by a total of eight points and in one of them, they trailed by 20+ before storming back to win in overtime. To be fair, the Pistons were expected to be the worst team in the East this year. Our view is that Miami takes this game very seriously and their skeleton crew will still be able to defeat the team with the worst record in the league. Play on MIAMI

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This is a 10* on CHATTANOOGA

This is a key battle in the Southern Conference, especially from Chattanooga’s perspective. The Mocs were 9-0, but have dropped three of five to fall into sixth place in the standings. All three losses have been by five points or less, so it’s not like they’ve played a bad game. On Wednesday, they did defeat Mercer 83-80 and now get a shot at one of the teams ahead of them in the standings, Wofford. The Terriers are also coming off a narrow win, theirs by just two points (80-78) over VMI. This will be their third consecutive road game as they also defeated NC Greensboro by three (48-45) in a much different style game from the one vs. VMI. Three road games in seven days is a tough ask in any league and considering Wofford could easily be 0-2 on this trip, we say “their time is up” today. Chattanooga is 29-14 ATS L43 as an underdog including 4-0 this year. They are a more veteran team compared to Wofford, who has failed to cover the spread off their previous four wins (were -6 vs. VMI). Play on CHATTANOOGA

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This is a 10* on HAWAII

Late night in Honolulu we get Hawaii hosting Cal State Bakersfield. This will be just the fifth game of the year of the home team. The first two were against non-Division I opponents, both of whom also hailed from “the island.” Those games were played in mid-December. The Warriors finally returned to the court last weekend with a pair of games at UC Riverside. They split the pair, winning the first one by five and losing the second by two. But they covered both, as a six and five point underdog, respectively. It’s basically a pick ‘em tonight and we don’t agree with that, even though CS Bakersfield has won its last three games. One of those three wins was on the road, but overall the Roadrunners are just 2-4 away from home compared to 5-0 at home. Hawaii has the best home court advantage in the Big West and if not for a last second shot by UC Riverside in the last game, the Warriors very well could have gone on to win that game and still be undefeated. This will be Cal State Bakersfield’s 1st trip to Honolulu as a member of the Big West Conference. Play on HAWAII

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This is a 10* on GOLDEN STATE

Denver was looking at a possible third consecutive win on Tuesday when they faced Brooklyn. Things started off well enough as the Nuggets jumped out to an 18-point lead in that game. But they blew it and ended up losing 122-116, thereby denying them a winning record. They’ve yet to be over .500 at any point this season, a disappointment after finishing 2nd and 3rd in the Western Conference each of the previous two seasons. Tonight, they’ll play host to the Warriors, who are a game over .500 as they look to rebound from a dismal 2019-20 campaign. Golden State also lost Tuesday, 104-95 to Indiana, as they too squandered a halftime lead. But only one of these teams can bounce back tonight in the second game of the TNT doubleheader. We’re siding with the Warriors, mainly due to the fact Denver is just 3-6 ATS as a favorite so far. Defensively, Golden State has been better than Denver this season and we see Steph Curry possibly “going off” here after being held to 20 points or fewer in three of the last four games. Play on GOLDEN STATE

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This is a 10* on GONZAGA

Gonzaga’s exploits need little introduction at this point as the #1 team in the country has won its 12 games by an average of nearly 23 points. They lead the country in scoring, averaging a ridiculous 96.1 points/game. The latest victim is going to be Pepperdine, who visits Spokane tonight. The Waves are simply not up to this task as they haven’t even played since Christmas and their last two games have been losses by 28 (to Cal State Bakersfield) and by 12 (to Cal Santa Barbara). Those losses were both at home. In fact, this is going to be just their second road game of the season. Gonzaga just hung 116 points on Portland its last time out. The only reason they did not cover is because they were asked to lay 32.5 points! (They won by 28). Pepperdine actually covered both meetings last season, but as you’d expect it’s Gonzaga that’s dominated the rivalry. The Zags have beaten Pepperdine 39 straight times going back to 2002 and haven’t lost at them at home since 1998! The straight up result is obviously in little doubt tonight, so it comes down to whether or not Mark Few’s team can cover the number. We think they will as a team that loses by 28 at home to Cal State Bakersfield is up against it here. Play on GONZAGA

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This is a 9* on MILWAUKEE

The Bucks have really had the Pistons number the last few seasons. They’ve won 13 in a row over their Central Division rivals with two of those victories coming last week. Most of the games haven’t been close either. The Bucks have gone 11-1-1 ATS in those 13 straight wins and the two last week were by 10 and 15 points. They didn’t cover the first one as they were huge 16-point favorites. The number is a lot more advantageous tonight in Detroit. It’s not like there’s much of a home court advantage for the Pistons. They just lost here on Sunday, 96-86 to the Jazz. Detroit has just two wins, one of which was in overtime after they overcame a 23-point deficit. They are one of the worst teams in the league while the Bucks very much remain the best. No team can touch the Bucks’ league-leading point differential and/or net efficiency rating. They are averaging 121.9 points/game while allowing only 110.3. All seven wins have come by double digits. No reason this shouldn’t be #8. Play on MILWAUKEE

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This is a 9* on FSU

Florida State and NC State have some things in common. Both are 0-3 ATS their last three games. Both are off a loss. NC State has dropped two in a row, one of those coming against Clemson, who also beat FSU. But something will have to give Wednesday night in Tallahassee and we believe it will be the home team breaking through. There’s no shame in losing to Clemson (as NC State knows) and that was the Seminoles’ first road game of the season. It was also just their second loss, the only other one being a shocker at the hands of UCF. The Clemson game took place all the way back on 12/29 as Covid 19 has claimed their last two scheduled games. So it will be an angry home team tonight that hasn’t taken the floor in over two weeks. NC State has played three times since FSU last took the floor and coming off back to back close losses (both by five points or less), the Wolfpack are at a disadvantage. NC State has covered only one of its last six games. If not for inactivity, FSU would likely still be a Top 25 team. Lay it! Play on FLORIDA STATE

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This is an 8* on USC

USC has been rolling of late and we don’t see that stopping tonight as they step outside Pac 12 play for a home game against UC Riverside Tuesday night. The Trojans have won their last three games by an average of almost 14 points per game. Those three wins were against teams that are all stronger than what they face here. UC Riverside does have a 15 point win over a Pac 12 team, Washington, but that was early in the year and the Huskies are not very good. After a month off due to Covid cancellations, the Highlanders have played two games, both against Hawaii, and they went 0-2 ATS in those games. It was a five-point loss and a two-point win, games that they were favored to win. USC is the best team they’ve faced so far and all-time they are 0-6 SU vs. the Trojans. USC does an outstanding job defensively and cleaning up the glass. Those advantages should be on full display here. Play on USC

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This is a 10* on OKC

Oklahoma City continues to be a great bet, especially when getting points, as they’ve won and covered each of their last three games - all of them as the underdog. The Thunder held the best ATS record in the league last season and are already off to a strong 6-3 start at the betting window this season. They are on a 48-25 ATS roll as underdogs and once again they’re getting points tonight as they host San Antonio. This isn’t the “Spurs of old” either. They just lost 96-88 in Minnesota Sunday, as a favorite, which was their fifth loss in eight games. They’ve been favored in only two games this season, those being the last two - both of which were vs. the Timberwolves. Not only did they lose outright on Sunday, but they failed to cover in a win Saturday. Tonight marks the end of a five-game road trip which began exactly seven days ago. So this is likely a tired team, one that is playing without DeMar DeRozan, the team leader in scoring and assists. Oklahoma City hasn’t won at home yet (0-3), but the fact they just went 4-1 SU on a five-game road trip tells us they are ready to. Grab the home team plus the points. Play on OKLAHOMA CITY

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This is a 10* on KANSAS

Kansas has recovered nicely from the ugly loss to Texas that kicked off the new year. The 6th ranked Jayhawks have now won two straight, beating TCU by 29 on the road and Oklahoma by four at home. They are back on the road tonight against Oklahoma State. The Cowboys just won 70-54 at Kansas State and also recently upset Texas Tech on the road. But they’ve lost three of five since a 6-0 start. While all three losses came by no more than three points, we view them as being clearly outclassed tonight in Stillwater. Kansas has won the last five head to head meetings, doing so by an average of 14 points/game. OSU looks like they could be short-handed for this game as well. Four players are currently listed as questionable. Not ideal when taking on a team as good as Kansas. Play on KANSAS

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This is a 10* on PORTLAND

After seeing them lose last night at Golden State, it’s pretty obvious that this Raptors team is a “far cry” from the one that won the NBA Championship just two years ago. It’s not just that they lost to the team they beat in the 2019 Finals, it’s a 2-7 start to this season. Kawhi Leonard is obviously long gone and this just isn’t the same team that lifted the Larry O’Brien Trophy. Probably the only positive coming out of last night is that Toronto snapped a streak of four straight games allowing 120 points or more. They did a good job keeping Steph Curry in check. But they still lost and were down 15 going into the fourth quarter! That’s a bad sign as they get ready to face a Portland team that was off Sunday. The Blazers have won two in a row by an average of 22 points/game. They’ve scored 122 or more in four of the last five games. The fact that the Raptors aren’t able to play any games in Toronto is going to continue to catch up with them and this team is 0-4 ATS so far coming off a straight up loss as a favorite (they were -2.5 at GSW). Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 10* on UTAH

The home team has gone 6-0 ATS in the previous six meetings between these Pac 12 rivals. Utah gets to play host on Monday as it hopes to end a three-game losing streak. Two of those losses came on the road (UCLA and USC) and then the Utes did lose here in Salt Lake City over the weekend, 79-73 to Oregon. That was a very discouraging defeat when you consider how well Utah shot the ball (55.8 FG%) and the fact they had a 10-point halftime advantage. Thanks to turnovers, the Utes really fell apart late. But don’t expect that to happen again. The Utes are 9-2 SU and ATS their last 11 times hosting Colorado. This game wasn’t supposed to be played until March 6th, but CU had a COVID cancellation over the weekend and decided to move the game up. An “impromptu” road game sounds difficult when you consider that the Buffaloes are 11-40-1 ATS on the road when facing an opponent that has a winning record at home. All three Colorado losses this year have come on the road, two of them by double digits. Play on UTAH

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This is a 10* on NEW YORK

The Knicks, even though they came up short Friday in OKC, have been a pleasant surprise in the early going with a 5-4 won-loss record. Denver has been a major disappointment as they are just 4-5 straight up and 2-7 against the spread. They are off a win yesterday, but it came at the expense of a severely depleted Philadelphia team that had only seven available players. All four Nuggets wins this year have come with rest. So this second night of a back to back - where they are laying points on the road - does not seem like a good situation to back them. The only other time they played without rest was when they lost by 10 at Sacramento. As underdogs, the Knicks have covered five of six and all five covers were also SU wins. They did lead the Thunder early - by as many as 11 - on Friday. Denver has lost four games that it has been favored in so far. We think its pretty clear the Nuggets aren’t as good as they were a season ago while the Knicks seem to be much improved. Play on NEW YORK

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This is a 10* on VA Tech

Virginia Tech is having a much better season than Notre Dame as the Hokies are 8-2 compared to just 3-6 for the Fighting Irish. Va Tech is off one of its two losses, which was by just a bucket at Louisville. Look for them to bounce back from that 2-point defeat on Sunday as they are 6-1 in Blacksburg where they’re winning by more than 10 points per game. The Louisville game was the first true road game of the season. On their home court, they’ve defeated the likes of Clemson and don’t forget a very impressive neutral site victory against Villanova. Notre Dame also came up just short on the road in its last game, a one-point loss to UNC. But before that, they’d lost by at least nine to Duke, Purdue and Virginia. Two of the Irish’s three wins have been against Detroit and Bellarmine. The other was by a single point over Kentucky. Need I remind you that the Hokies are ranked #19 in the country? They don’t lose at home very often and Notre Dame is 0-3 ATS the last three times its taken the court with at least seven days rest. Play on VA TECH

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This is a 10* on Depaul

Depaul takes the court for the just 4th time this season and it’s against a Seton Hall team that was recently manhandled in an 89-53 loss to Creighton. Now the Blue Demons are no Creighton, but they are at home, which is a place they have not played at since a 91-72 win against Western Illinois right before Christmas. Seton Hall is 8-5 straight up (9-4 ATS), so it has actually been a good season for them despite what happened vs. Creighton. The Pirates were on a 7-1 SU/ATS run before that ugly loss on Wednesday. But we don’t like them laying points on the road in this instance. The only other time they had to do it, they lost at Rhode Island early in the season. There were no positives at all from the Pirates’ last game as they shot just 33% while letting Creighton shoot 59.6%. They were down 42 at one point! A loss like that can wound a team’s psyche. Coming into the season, the Hall had been 0-6 ATS immediately after a game where they allowed at least 80 points. They are 4-11 ATS off a Big East loss. Play on Depaul

This is a 10* on NORTH DAKOTA

North Dakota isn’t all that good (2-9 SU record), but Oral Roberts probably shouldn’t be laying double digits to anybody. ORU has covered its last six lined games, but four of those were SU losses where they were underdogs of at least 10 points. They did sweep Omaha last week, winning 95-83 and 86-75, to get Summit League play off to a nice start. But they were short favorites for both games. You should look for North Dakota to be competitive Friday night, even though they really haven’t been on the road thus far. This basically boils down to the fact that Oral Roberts has not been favored by more than three points against anyone this season. They hadn’t been favored - in any game - before the sweep of Omaha last weekend nor had they beaten a single Division I opponent! We don’t think North Dakota is as bad as the oddsmakers seem to as they’ve done a decent job defensively in conference play, holding teams to just 64.0 points/game. The Fighting Hawks are 4-0 ATS following a double digit loss at home. Grab the points in this one. Play on NORTH DAKOTA

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This is an 8* on OHIO

Ohio U has not beaten Toledo once in its last five tries and this time they’ve got to face the Rockets when they are on a six-game win streak and have covered five straight. But while Ohio had a rough three-game stretch at the end of 2020 - losing to Marshall, Akron and Bowling Green - they’ve rebounded nicely with wins over Ball State and Northern Illinois to start 2021. The Bobcats did hang with Illinois earlier this season (lost by just two in Champaign-Urbana) and are one of the better offensive teams in the MAC with a 55.7 effective field goal percentage, which ranks 26th in the country. That they’ve been able to maintain that offensive efficiency despite playing without leading scorer Jason Preston (questionable for tonight) the last three games is pretty impressive. Toledo won by just two points its last time out and while they were three-point underdogs, they don’t have the luxury of winning by such a narrow margin again tonight. We smell upset tonight in the Mid-American Conference. You should take the points here. Play on OHIO

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This is a 10* on GONZAGA

In our view, you won’t find a better team in the country than Gonzaga, who is not just 10-0 but also winning their games by an average margin of 30.6 points per game. They just blew out one of the better WCC teams (San Francisco) in their last game, 85-62, which was the Zags’ fourth straight victory by at least 23 points. One of those was against Virginia, so it’s not like it’s been all bad teams they’ve been facing. Like we said earlier, San Francisco is a good team and they destroyed them. Now comes BYU, also recognized as one of the potential “challengers” to Gonzaga’s reign of dominance in this conference. Don’t look for this one to be close either. BYU has already been beaten once this year by 26 points (USC) and also lost at home to Boise State. Complicating matters for the visitors is the fact Gonzaga will be out to avenge a late-season loss from last year. The three prior meetings all saw the Zags win by at least 23 points. Look for another 20+ point win tonight. Play on GONZAGA

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This is a 10* on BROOKLYN

Brooklyn’s first game without Kevin Durant (in quarantine) could not possibly have gone any better as they thwarted the Jazz 130-96 as a 5-point home underdog. Oddsmakers have apparently NOT learned their lesson as they’ve once again installed the Nets as home dogs tonight vs. Philadelphia. Granted, the Sixers have the best overall record in the Eastern Conference at 7-1. However, look at who they’ve played: Washington twice, New York, Cleveland, Toronto, Orlando and Charlotte twice. All are struggling teams that we don’t think are going to finish anywhere near the top of the standings. This is the second game of a back to back for Philly as they won a wild 141-136 game against the Wizards last night.  We’ve got these teams rated pretty evenly, so it’s a mistake to have Brooklyn as an underdog at home even with Durant out, given the Sixers are playing without rest. Kyrie Irving made his first nine shots against Utah and finished with 29 points. He may not be quite as prolific tonight, but we don’t need him to be. All we are looking for is a win, it doesn’t need to be by 34 points like we saw Monday. There is no way the shots are going to fall for Philly tonight the way they did Wednesday. Play on BROOKLYN

This is a 10* on DUKE

It’s been almost a month (12/16) since Duke last took the court. That last game was a 75-65 win over Notre Dame and the first time they covered a spread this season (were only 1-point favorites). Losing to Michigan State and Illinois - as the Blue Devils did - isn’t that big of a deal. We like Coach K to have another productive ACC season and a Boston College team that’s dropped six of its last seven games isn’t going to provide much of a challenge tonight. The Eagles only win since November came against Maine. They are giving up a ton of points, 81.1 per game to be exact. St. Johns, Syracuse, Minnesota and Florida all scored at least 85 against this team. Duke is better than all four of those teams and should score in that neighborhood. Making matters worse for BC is that they were pretty inept at the offensive end vs. Louisville over the weekend. They shot just 33.8% and missed 25 of 33 three point attempts. No path to be competitive here for BC. Play on DUKE

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This is an 8* on MILWAUKEE

The Bucks beat the Pistons by 10 points on Monday and should win by a much larger margin tonight. While it’s going to be tough for the Bucks to shoot the ball better than they did Monday, they can help themselves by defending better. Detroit shouldn’t score 115 again as they usually don’t do well in games that have a total of 220 points or more. They are just 19-36 ATS in such games. They are also only 11-24 ATS L35 division games. Milwaukee is 27-8 ATS its last 35 division games. Then you’ve got the head to head. The Bucks are 12-0 SU the L12 meetings, going 10-1-1 ATS. The Pistons have given up an average of 117.6 points/game this season and that’s obviously not going to cut it against the league’s top scoring team. The Bucks can name the score here. Play on MILWAUKEE

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This is a 10* on TEXAS TECH

It’s been a while since Texas Tech (0-6 ATS L6) covered a game. You’d actually have to go back to December 9th to find the last time the #18 ranked Red Raiders were the winners at the betting window. But that’s what happens sometimes when you’re favored in every game. We happen to think this team is much better than its current ranking in the polls and view tonight as a “buy low” opportunity as they welcome Kansas State to Lubbock. Remember that K-State lost to Fort Hayes State, a non-Division I school, at home earlier this season. Texas Tech has six wins by 20 or more points, so don’t be worried about laying the “big” number here. Again, with that many blowout victories you wouldn’t think they’d be struggling to cover games. The Red Raiders are off a loss here, 82-77 to Oklahoma State on Saturday, a game that went to overtime. But this is a drop in class. Three of Kansas State’s five wins have come by four points or fewer, so they easily could be even worse off than 5-6 SU. When the Wildcats played Baylor, they lost by 31 at home. That’s the only ranked opponent they’ve faced so far. They were down by 17 at home to TCU on Saturday. The Wildcats turn the ball over too much and you can’t do that against one of the best defensive teams in the country like Texas Tech. Tonight won’t go well for the visitors. Play on TEXAS TECH

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