This is an 8* play on MEMPHIS

Memphis is catching points and catching Washington in the second game of a back to back tonight. That's a combo that works in their favor. The Wizards lost last night, falling 116-110 to Charlotte right here at home. Bradley Beal scored 40 points, but the Wizards were down 14 at the end of the first quarter and 17 heading into the fourth. Memphis is rested as they've been off for two days and likely motivated considering they were torched for 132 points by Atlanta of all teams in their last game. Going into that game, the Grizzlies were #1 in the league in scoring defense. It was the most points they allowed in any game all year. A bounce back seems likely given the way they had been playing. Memphis is 4-2 SU/5-1 ATS this month with wins over both Portland and Utah. Play on MEMPHIS

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This is a 10* play on HOUSTON

Memphis is quite fortunate the the American Tournament is being played on its home court, the FedEx Forum. The Tigers have been beaten only twice this year at home. Yesterday saw them ride a wave of momentum as they dominated likely NCAA Tourney team UCF, winning by a score of 79-55. But today they run into the best team that the American has to offer, that being top seed Houston, who has lost just two times all year period. The Cougars destroyed UConn on Friday, winning 84-45 as 11.5-point favoirtes. They beat Memphis in the lone regular season matchup by a score of 90-77. While that was at home, we think this team is more than capable of doing the same on the road. The Cougars are 9-1 ATS this season if they allowed 25 points or less in the first half of their previous games. They held UConn to exactly 25. Then they allowed only 20 in the second half, holding the Huskies scoreless for 13 minutes at one point. Houston is well rested as no starter played more than 30 minutes Friday. Memphis is playing its third game in three days. Play on HOUSTON 

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This is an 8* play on MICHIGAN STATE

While the lower half of the draw featured an upset (Minnesota beating Purdue), the top half of the Big 10 Tournament features the expected semfinal battle between #1 seed Michigan State and #4 seed Wisconsin. The Spartans won yesterday, beating Ohio State 77-70. They did not cover as double digit favorites. Wisconsin ousted Nebraska 66-62, but they didn't cover either. Both teams got off to fast starts Friday before failing to cover. Michigan State won the only regular season meeting, 62-59, and that was in Madison. Of interest is the fact the Spartans have now scored more than 75 points in three consecutive games. They are 10-1 ATS when doing that this season. Of the two teams, they looked better yesterday. They were up by as many as 21 in the second half. Nick Ward is now back after missing five games due to a broken hand. He contributed eight points in 14 minutes against Ohio State. We feel MSU is the better team here and they'll show it today. Play on MICHIGAN STATE

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This is an 8* play on DUKE

To say North Carolina was "gifted" a couple wins over Duke in the regular season might be too much. But you can't deny the Tar Heels caught a massive break in each game. The first one was the infamous Zion Williamson injury and an obviously shell-shocked Blue Devils team went down in defeat, 88-72. Incredibly, the rematch saw another major Duke injury take place early in the game. This one was to Marques Bolden. The result was another loss for the Blue Devils. Bolden will not play in the ACC Tournament, but in case you hadn't heard (unlikely), Williamson is back and he was awesome in last night's 84-72 win over Syracuse. The freshman made all 13 shots he attempted and pulled down 14 rebounds as well. All shoe problems appear rectified. The idea that Duke is going to lose to North Carolina three times this year seems far-fetched to us. All we need to do is lay a small spread here and I think the Blue Devils are on a mission to prove they still deserve a #1 seed. With Williamson in the lineup this year, Duke has lost just one time in regulation. It was by two points to Gonzaga, in Maui.  This isn't Maui.  It's the ACC Tournament, an event Coach K has owned through the years. Play on DUKE

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This is a 10* play on WASHINGTON 

Colorado has had to play each of the last two days, putting them at a distinct disadvantage here in the Pac 12 semifinals against top seeded Washington. The Huskies had a closer than expected call (for some!) against USC yesterday afternoon, but we took the underdog in that one, noting the Trojans were a better team than most realized. They showed that by sticking with favored UW despite the Huskies playing very well. UW made 13 of 28 three-pointers and led by double digits in the second half, before USC went on a late run. Because the final score ended up being close, we're getting a relative gift from the oddsmakers today in only having to lay a small number against a team play for a third time in as many days. Washington is very good defensively, ranking inside the top 20 nationally in points allowed per 100 possessions. They beat Colorado in both regular season games, winning by seven and nine points. The Buffaloes were hardly impressive in Wednesday's five point win over California. They got off to a great start yesterday vs. Oregon State, building a lead as big as 21 points. But they almost blew it and we think they're officially set to run out of gas tonight. Play on WASHINGTON

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This is an 8* play on LSU

Florida turned in a strong second half performance in beating Arkansas 66-50 on Thursday afternoon. The Razorbacks failed to make a single basket over the game's final 7:54. The Gators "reward" for winning that game is a quarterfinal date with the SEC's top seed LSU. These teams split a pair of games in the regular season. Both went to overtime and both times the road team emerged victorious. With LSU head coach Will Wade on leave (due to the NCAA scandal), we think public sentiment will be against the Tigers. But don't make that mistake. LSU has been defying skeptics this entire season. They are 26-5 overall, 16-2 in SEC play and have won five straight games (5-0 ATS too!). Their two conference losses were a one-point loss to Arkansas and the OT loss to Florida. Florida had lost three in a row before yesterday's win. LSU is a perfect 7-0 ATS this season in games where the line is three points or less. Obviously, the fact the Tigers had off yesterday while Florida had to play a game is a huge benefit. Play on LSU. 

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This is a 10* play on LOUISIANA

The Sun Belt Tournament format is one that greatly favors the top seeds. The top two teams only have to win once to make the Final. The #3 and #4 seeds need to win only twice to get there. Everyone else is facing an uphill climb, including a South Alabama team that would have to win FOUR times just to make the Final. We certainly don't see that happening. The Jaguars had little trouble getting by Arkansas State in the opening round (won 75-67) and got a day off prior to today's matchup. But UL Lafayette has played well this last month. The Ragin Cajuns are 6-2 straight up their last eight games and 7-1 ATS. What if I told you that they are one of the nation's highest scoring teams? They are, averaging 82.0 points per game! It was a high-scoring game when these teams met in the regular season. Louisiana won 88-84. South Alabama is unlikely to score that many again (they average 73.2 PPG) and is surprisingly not getting much help from the oddsmakers here. We were surprised at how low this number was when it opened. Play on LOUISIANA

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This is an 8* winner on USC

USC looked impressive yesterday in beating Arizona 78-65 and we think that that'll carry over into today's Pac 12 quarterfinal battle with top seed Washington. The Trojans went off as 2-pt dogs against Arizona. The Pac 12 was not good this year. Washington was the "best" team, but that's not saying much. The Huskies were not particularly impressive down the stretch either. They turned in a "dud" showing in the last regular season game, losing 55-47 to Oregon at home. They also lost to a terrible Cal team two weeks ago. Looking at their two wins in the past four games, one came in overtime and the other by only 1 point. This is one of the weakest top seeds in any conference tournament. Led by Bennie Boatright's 22 points and 11 rebounds, USC turned in an 18-2 run in each half yesterday. The Trojans never led in a 75-62 loss to UW in the regular season, but that game was played in Seattle and the Huskies looked a lot better at the time than they do now. Play on USC

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This is an 8* play on INDIANA

The Hoosiers were an excellent team to bet down the stretch as they've covered six straight games. They've won the last four straight up as well, including upsets of both Wisconsin and Michigan State. It was a much different finish to the regular season for Ohio State. The Byckeyes are 0-3 both straight up and against the spread in March. Now a large part of that had to do with the fact they were without leading scorer (and rebounder) Kaleb Wesson, who was suspended. Wesson will return for the Big 10 Tourney, but it may be a case of "too little, too late" for the Buckeyes. Indiana has legit revenge here for a three-point loss in the regular season. They shot very poorly in that game and we don't think that'll be the case this afternoon. Both of these teams finished with 8-12 SU records in Big 10 play, so they're lucky to even be in the NCAA Tournament discussion. The loser here is done. The difference between Indiana and Ohio State is that the former was able to beat good teams, including Michigan State twice. IU gets it done here. Play on INDIANA

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This is a 10* play on FIU

This is a first round matchup in Conference USA's Tournament. The way I see it, the only reason North Texas is still favored has to do with the way they started the season (16-2 through 18 games). Because the Mean Green definitely didn't end the season well. They've lost seven straight games and didn't cover the spread in any of them either. Their most recent loss was to a team they'll play again today, that being FIU, who just won 73-58 over UNT on Saturday. That was the second time the Panthers beat the Mean Green in the last month as they also prevailed by a score of 69-59 back on Feb 16th. Both games were in Miami due to the weird way C-USA did its schedule this year. But the Panthers finished the year at 19-12, winning and covering five of the last six games. North Texas is just 1-10 ATS vs. teams with winning records. Their poor form can't be overlooked here. Play on FIU

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This is a 10* play on DETROIT

On Monday, the Pistons chose a poor time to turn in their worst effort in months. They were dominated from start to finish by the Nets in a 103-75 loss. That cost them sixth place in the Eastern Conference, perhaps a meaningless distinction, but beating the teams you're competing with for playoff positioning is important this time of year. It's a similar matchup for Wednesday as the Pistons travel to Miami. The Heat are in 8th place right now, three games back of the Pistons.  But that precious "breathing room" isn't something Detroit wants to be conceding right now. The good news is the Pistons haven't dropped back to back games since the All Star Break. They've gone 12-3 SU the last 15 games and the last time they were off a loss, they responded with a 129-93 win, on the road no less. Miami has actually played worse at home this year (15-19 SU) than on the road (16-16) and just gave up 125 points on almost 57% shooting Sunday to Toronto. So Detroit should shoot a lot better here than they did vs. Brooklyn, a game they finished 27% from the field. The previous three games all saw them shoot better than 53.5%. The Pistons are the better team here. Play on DETROIT

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This is an 8* play on GEORGE WASHINGTON

The Atlantic 10 Tournament is heavily slanted to the top four teams (double byes) so GW and UMass both have uphill climbs. The lower seed is actually favored in this one, which is interesting because GW won the only regular season meeting. They did so 79-67 as 2.5 point home underdogs. That represents the Colonials only win in the last 10 games. Can they beat UMass again? Sure, why not. At the very worst they should still cover. UMass has been terrible as a favorite, going 3-12 ATS this year. They've lost nine of the games straight up. Even more damning is that the Minutemen are not just 1-7 ATS as a favorite in conference play, but also 1-7 straight up. You just don't want to be caught laying points with this group. We'll be honest in that GW isn't much better. But they are not this many points worse. Play on GEORGE WASHINGTON

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This is a 10* play on INDIANA

It certainly looks like it will be a tough three-way fight for the #3 seed in the Eastern Conference between Indiana, Philadelphia and Boston. Getting that #3 seed is crucial, not only for the home court advantage in the 1st round of playoffs, but it also allows that team to avoid playing either of the other two teams in question. Indiana has done itself no favors by losing its last two games, but they have a certified "layup" tonight when they host the league-worst Knicks. The two games that the Pacers just lost both came on the road and were against Milwaukee and Philadelphia. At home, this team is 25-9 SU and holding opponents to almost 100 PPG (100.1 to be exact). I expect the Pacers offense to be MUCH better tonight than it was against the Bucks and Sixers, who both held them under 100 points. The Knicks are atrocious defensively as they give up 114.5 PPG on the road. After winning three of four surrounding the All Star Break, New York has reverted to its losing ways by dropping six straight games. They've been held below 100 in three straight and those games were against teams that aren't even good defensively. The three teams (Suns, Kings, Timberwolves) all actually rank in the bottom 10 in points allowed. The Knicks have lost 38 of their last 43 games. Play on INDIANA

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This is an 8* play on PITT

Pitt had a lousy year in the ACC, but at least the regular season ended on a high note as they beat Notre Dame 56-53 Saturday. The Panthers still enter the ACC Tournament as the lowest possible seed (14th), but they are favored to win their first game. Having taken this team Saturday, I'll back them again here as I don't think they're nearly as bad as their record. B.C. comes into the ACC Tourney having lost three in a row and they were terrible in a 73-47 home loss to N.C. State on Saturday. The Eagles did win a pair of games in last year's ACC Tourney, but we don't see that happening again. They did beat Pitt in the only regular season meeting, 66-57, but that was in Chesnut Hill. The Panthers are the better three-point shooting team here. Look for that to be the difference tonight. Play on PITTSBURGH

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This is a 10* play on OHIO

Ohio did not have a particularly good regular season, but it ended on a high note with the Bobcats covering the spread in the last five games. They won three of them straight up and the two losses were by a combined eight points. So, for us, they're an attractive bet tonight getting points against Northern Illinois. This is a home game for NIU but they've lost 7 of 10 and none of the three wins were by more than seven points. The last two were both on the road and were upsets. The last three times the Huskies have been favored, they lost outright all three times. Now the last instance of them covering as chalk was here at home against Ohio. But the Bobcats actually led that game with seven minutes to go. They also lost to NIU in Athens, so it's a big-time revenge factor here. With both teams having been involved in so many close games this season, it seems only logical to side with the team getting points. There's just not much difference between the two sides and Ohio has played better of late. Northern Illinois is 0-5 ATS its last five home games. Play on OHIO

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This is an 8* play on DETROIT

Both of these teams are trying to get into the playoffs, which (even in the Eastern Conference) would be considered a significant achievement. The Pistons have made the playoffs only once (2016) in the last decade and have not won a playoff series since their run of six straight Eastern Conference Finals, which ended in '08. The Nets have missed the playoffs 8 of the last 11 years including each of the last three. So the fact both might make it makes this an important game. Detroit is simply playing better right now. Their 131-108 win over the Bulls yesterday puts them an impressive 5-0 SU/ATS in March and 12-2 SU (11-3 ATS) their last 14 games overall. Brooklyn has won three straight, but had won only 5 of its previous 15 games before that. They are also 1-4 ATS so far this month. You might think that the Pistons are at a bit of a disadvantage playing in the second game of a back to back, but it was an early game Sunday and an easy victory. The Pistons are 6-3 ATS playing without rest anyway and averaging 123 PPG in March on 52.5% shooting. They are a tough team to beat right now. Play on DETROIT

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This is a 10* play on WILLIAM & MARY

This is one of four quarterfinal matchups today in the Colonial Athletic Association. William & Mary is the 4-seed while Delaware is the 5, but the teams really aren't as close as those seedings suggest, nor are they as close as the oddsmakers seem to think they are. William & Mary finished two games up in the standings. They did lose to Delaware early in the year, by just two points on the road. But they crushed them in the rematch, at home, winning by 21 points. William & Mary ended the regular season on a five-game SU win streak, covering the spread in four of those games. Delaware ended with four straight losses - both SU and ATS - and is 1-9-1 ATS its last 11 games overall (3-8 SU). Pay little mind to the fact they beat W&M early in the season as the Tribe actually went off as the slight favorite in that game and it was decided by two points. W&M holds a 7-1 record the last eight meetings and led by seven at halftime in that loss. Delaware just got beat by double digits in back to back home games to end the regular season, by the top two teams in the Colonial. Even their modest 16-15 record is a bit misleading when you consider the won FOUR overtime games this year (didn't lose any), three of them double OT games! Play on WILLIAM & MARY

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This is an 8* play on UNC

The first time these teams played UNC caught an all-time lucky break as Zion Williamson got injured in the first minute of the game. The Tar Heels took advantage of a shell-shocked Duke team, beating them 88-72 in Cameron. Though the game was on the road, it's almost unfathomable that UNC was a 10-point underdog for that contest. Now they are the higher ranked team and favorite, poised to sweep the season series from their hated rival. Though there's been some talk of Williamson returning here, it sounds as if that's highly unlikely and even if he did, who knows how he could perform in such a hostile situation. UNC has won six straight and 13 of its last 14 and I don't see them dropping their Chapel Hill finale. Since the Williamson injury, Duke lost at Virginia Tech and then was very fortunate to escape with a one-point victory earlier this week against Wake Forest, a game they were expected to win by 24. Play on NORTH CAROLINA

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This is a 10* play on KANSAS STATE

For the 1st time in 15 years, Kansas will not win the Big 12 regular season title. That much we know. But who will supplant the Jayhawks is still up for grabs. It will either be Texas Tech or Kansas State. The two come into Saturday tied with matching 13-4 conference records. Unlike Texas Tech, Kansas State gets to play at home. They host Oklahoma, whom the 18th ranked Wildcats easily downed earlier this year in Norman, 74-61 as five-point underdogs. Ironically, it was OU that came into that first meeting ranked in the top 20 (Wildcats were unranked). Something Kansas State has in common with Texas Tech is they are one of the top defensive teams in the country. The Wildcats allow 59.3 PPG, 4th fewest in the entire nation (1 PPG more than TT). Oklahoma has faded badly since losing that first matchup with Kansas State. The Sooners are 6-8 SU the last 14 games and that's even with back to back wins to open March. After upsetting Kansas earlier in the week, it would only be natural for the Sooners to have a letdown Saturday in Manhattan. Kansas State is 13-2 in the Octagon of Doom this year. Play on KANSAS STATE

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This is a 10* play on TEXAS TECH

For the 1st time in 15 years, Kansas will not win the Big 12 regular season title. That much we know. But who will supplant the Jayhawks is still up for grabs. It will either be Texas Tech or Kansas State. The two come into Saturday tied with matching 13-4 conference records. For Texas Tech to win at least a share of the title, they'll need to win in Ames against Iowa State. We like their chances. The Red Raiders are #1 in the country in defensive efficiency, making them a dangerous opponent come NCAA Tournament time. They just ripped Texas 70-51, holding the Longhorns under 30% shooting for the game, for their eighth straight win. Meanwhile, Iowa State is limping towards the finish. The Cyclones have lost four of their last five games. While just one of those four losses transpired here at home, their last two defensive efforts leave a lot to be desired. They gave up 86 points to Texas and 90 to last place West Virginia. Defense travels, thus Texas Tech can be counted on today. Play on TEXAS TECH

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This is an 8* play on PITTSBURGH

Something will have to give here when Pittsburgh hosts Notre Dame in the final regular season game for both ACC teams. Pitt is 2-15 in conference play and has lost 13 in a row. They are in last place. Just one game ahead is Notre Dame, who has lost six straight. Can you believe Pitt actually holds early season wins over Louisville and NC State? There are many reasons why the Panthers have hit the skids, but the bottom line is they've lost a lot of close games as well. Believe it or not, this is actually an improvement from last year when they didn't win a single ACC game. As the home team Saturday, we expected them to have more motivation. Ending this losing streak in the final home game is a big deal. As poorly as Pitt has shot the basketball, Notre Dame has shockingly been worse at only 37.4% in ACC play. The Fighting Irish have just two wins outside of South Bend all season. A two-point loss to Clemson in their own home finale (Wednesday) could have a demoralizing effect. Play on PITTSBURGH

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This is a 10* play on ORLANDO

Orlando is trying to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference, which is an achievable goal as they are just one game back of eighth place Miami. If they were to accomplish the goal, it would be the first time in the playoffs for the Magic since the Dwight Howard era, which ended back in 2012. That's a serious drought, so while we can talk about how depth shy the East is this year, that hardly matters to the Magic. Dallas is not going to make the playoffs out West and if there was any thought that they might make a late run, that's been killed by them winning just once in the last nine games. Recently, they've taken some very terrible losses, one by 30 at home to Memphis and another by 39 at Brooklyn. The Mavs only have six road wins all year, which is tied for the second fewest in the league. Orlando has dropped two in a row, but both games were on the road. Tonight is their only home game for the first 13 days of March, so they should play well. Don't be afraid to lay the points as they are in a good spot here. Play on ORLANDO

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This is a 10* play on TOLEDO

We used Toledo earlier in the week and it was a success with them beating Western Michigan 76-57. That was the fourth win in a row for the Rockets, who have already clinched the MAC West and thus will be the #2 seed (behind Buffalo) in their conference tournament. But before they get to Cleveland, it's time to take care of a little business with Eastern Michigan in the final regular season game of the year. The Rockets are playing with legit revenge here as they lost up in Ypsilanti last month 76-69 as four-point favorites. They haven't lost since. We're getting a good price on them for the rematch. Toledo is a very good home team as is evident by their 13-2 SU record and they average 78.1 points per game while only giving up 62.1. For all the reasons we took them against Western Michigan, we like them here as well. Then there is the revenge angle coupled with it being Senior Night, which only sweetens the deal. Play on TOLEDO 

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This is an 8* play on PACIFIC

In what is quite the interesting scenario, Pacific will play Pepperdine for a second time in less than a week. These WCC rivals ended the regular season against one another with Pacific winning 73-72 on a late three-pointer. The win, which came on the road, snapped a six-game losing streak for Pacific. Now the Tigers get to face the Waves at a neutral setting (Las Vegas), looking to sweep the season series. Pacific also beat Pepperdine earlier in the year, at home, 66-59. Pepperdine has won just one of its last five games and two out of its last eight. Their last win came against last place Portland (who is HORRIBLE) and the other win was by just three points over San Diego. The third time will NOT be the charm tonight for Pepperdine, who simply does not win away from home very often. Pacific hasn't just had Pepperdine's number this year, they've won and covered five straight times at the Waves' expense. Play on PACIFIC

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This is an 8* play on UL LAFAYETTE

This is another Sun Belt game, one involving the team that was just upset by Appalachian State. That result should leave Louisiana plenty motivated going into this final week of the regular season. Losing at home is never any fun, but especially on Senior Day, which is what happened to the Ragin Cajuns over the weekend due to a very poor defensive effort (gave up 90 points). We can't see them losing for a second straight time to an inferior opponent. They beat Little Rock by 14 on the road back in January. At the time, Louisiana's SU record was 10-5. They've been a .500 team since, but that's still better than Little Rock, who has dropped four straight coming into tonight. The Trojans had to play their last three games all on the road. Maybe they've been more competitive than the 5-11 conference record shows, but I don't think they can be trusted to win a game straight up. Not when they lost by double digits to the same team the first time around. Play on UL LAFAYETTE

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This is an 8* play on TROY

Last place Troy has had little to celebrate in the Sun Belt as their record is 4-12 and they come into the final week having lost five in a row and 9 of the last 10 games. But tonight the Trojans face one of the teams they have beaten already and they'll do so while getting a pretty generous number. Appalachian State is only a game ahead of Troy in the standings, so the latter has a chance to get out of the basement with a win tonight. With App State both off a rare win and laying points, I see them as being particularly vulnerable tonight. The Mountaineers just beat Louisiana 90-80 over the weekend, thus sweeping the season series from the Ragin Cajuns. But here we find them as a favorite, a role they have only been in six times all season and gone 2-4 ATS. This will be the most points ASU has had to lay in any Sun Belt game. Go with the underdog in a clear letdown spot for the favorite. App State is just 7-27 ATS following a game where they covered the spread. Play on TROY

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This is a 10* play on OREGON

Oregon has simply rolled to victory in each of its last two games, winning by 28 and 26 points. They beat the two Arizona schools, both at home, and a 73-47 dismantling of Arizona over the weekend was most impressive. They do have to travel twice in the final week of the regular season, up to Washington, but winning in Pullman should not be much of a problem (the finale @ Washington will be much tougher). Waiting here for the Ducks is a dreadful Washington State squad that has won just 4 of its 16 Pac 12 games. Three straight losses probably haven't done wonders for the Cougars' confidence coming into the final week and they already lost to Oregon by 20 earlier in the year. Wazzu may not be as bad at home as they are on the road, but they are bad regardless and we don't see this being a very competitive game. Play on OREGON 

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This is an 8* play on SACRAMENTO

Expect the narrative of "BOSTON IS BACK" to start flying after the Celtics just handed Golden State its worst home loss EVER (33 points) under Steve Kerr. But with a quick turnaround, against a Sacramento team that has been a major surprised, the good times may not last long. Let's not forget the Celtics had lost five of six since the All Star Break prior to last night's shocking triumph out in Oakland. The Kings have the league's 2nd best ATS record at 37-26 and that includes a 22-11 mark at home. The fact that they're no longer favored (line jumped the fence after Boston won last night) is a little disappointing based on the fact they are 15-2 SU/13-4 ATS as chalk. The Kings did a good job defensively in their last game. Granted, it was the Knicks, but Boston is only 3-7 ATS when playing the second night of a back to back and they average just 105 PPG. Play on SACRAMENTO  

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This is an 8* play on CHICAGO

This is the second night of a back to back for both teams. Philly won last night, beating Orlando 114-106, while Chicago lost 105-96 to Indiana. Those results are pretty "par for the course" for the respective seasons the two teams are having, but we like the Bulls getting points at home tonight. The 76ers are nowhere near as strong on the road (16-14) as they are at home (25-9) and laying points on the road can certainly be tricky. Joel Embiid is still absent from the Philly lineup, leaving them very thin in the frontcourt. They were lucky to have a strong 1st half last night vs. Orlando (scored 70 pts) as they only scored 44 in the 2nd half. Meanwhile, Chicago had the lead with just over seven minutes to go last night in Indiana before wilting down the stretch. They'd also won five of their previous seven games. An upset here is a real possibility. Play on CHICAGO

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This is an 8* play on DETROIT

Though they did beat Oklahoma City last night, this is going to be a really tough spot for Minnesota here. That was a home game vs. the Thunder and now it's back on the road where they've lost three in a row and are just 9-24 this season. Detroit has really started to gain some steam, winning 9 of its last 11, and both losses took place on the road. All things considered, laying a short number like this seems to be a "no-brainer." The Pistons have had two days off to prepare and just beat the Raptors. Making that win even more impressive is the fact they were playing the second night of a back to back. The Timberwolves are just 2-7 SU in that scenario this season with all seven losses taking place out on the road. The T'wolves are terrible defensively and the Pistons have not lost a home game since Feb 2. This is a big game for Detroit as a win gets them above .500 for the first time since Dec 19. Play on DETROIT

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This is an 8* play on OAKLAND

Quarterfinal action in the Horizon League continues tonight with the 3 seed (Oakland) hosting the 6 seed (Youngstown State). The winner here moves on to play the winner of Northern Kentucky vs. Detroit next Monday. While it might seem like a bad idea to lay points in a matchup of teams whose two regular season meetings were decided by a total of three points, that's precisely what we'll do here. Oakland ended the regular season quite well, winning its last four games - all by double digit margins (4-0 ATS). YSU has lost three in a row, including one at home to Cleveland State, who didn't even qualify for the conference tournament. Oakland scores a lot when it plays at home (81.5 PPG) and Youngstown State doesn't score much when it travels (69.9 PPG). Look for the favorite to easily cover the spread in this one. Play on OAKLAND

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This is a 10* play on WICHITA STATE

Wichita State might only be middle of the pack in the American, but they've been a lot better down the home stretch, going 7-2 straight up and against the spread their last nine games. They just won by 12 at SMU on Sunday, as a 3.5-point underdog, and now get one of the conference's worst teams for the final home game of the year. In most leagues, East Carolina would be the worst team, but the American happens to have Tulane, whose ineptitude defies description. Wichita State already beat ECU by 16 on the road, a game which came during this 7-2 run. East Carolina has just one road win all year and it came against ... you guessed it, Tulane. They give almost 80 PPG in road games, which is a problem facing a Wichita State team that's been tightening the screws defensively recently. The Shockers have held five of the last seven opponents below 37% shooting. ECU has allowed 190 points the last two games on almost 60% shooting. Play WICHITA STATE

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This is an 8* play on HOUSTON

We won by taking the Rockets Sunday in Boston and now they head up to Canada to face another Eastern Conference power, that obviously being the Raptors. Boston's recent struggles made them an easy fade against a Houston squad that has clearly found its stride during a five game win streak. Beating a better Toronto team may prove more difficult, but given the ease with which the Rockets downed the Celtics (won by 11 and it wasn't even really that close), simply winning here would not be that "big of a deal." The Rockets are now 19-9 SU when James Harden, Chris Paul and Clint Capella are all in the starting lineup. That threesome being on the floor together was crucial in the Rockets finishing last season with the best record in the regular season. Toronto just lost to Detroit over the weekend. There was no Kawhi Leonard in that game, but him being back tonight won't be enough to get by this red hot Houston team. Play on HOUSTON

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This is an 8* play on TOLEDO

Toledo is already assured of winning the MAC West as they swept the season series from Central Michigan, whom they just beat Saturday. But the Rockets have a real chance to enter the conference tourney with some serious momentum as they have what appear to be - on paper - two very winnable home games in the final week of the regular season. Up first is a Western Michigan team they already beat on the road back in January. That was an eight-point win as six-point favorites, but they'll need a far greater margin of victory to cover the spread tonight. Western Michigan has covered four in a row, including three straight losses by five points or less. Our guess is they won't have much left in the tank after a two-point loss to Ball State over the weekend. Friday's home finale vs. Central Michigan and obviously the MAC Tournament are greater priorities for the Broncos at this point. They are only 3-13 SU on the road and 2-14 in conference play. They're no match for the Rockets tonight. Play on TOLEDO

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This is a 10* play on KANSAS STATE

Kansas State is seeking its first share of a Big 12 title since 2013 and first outright regular season championship since 1977 when the conference was still known as the Big 8. To at least accomplish the former, they'll need to win the final two regular season games. The latter would require winning both times and Texas Tech also losing once. Motivation won't be lacking for TCU tonight either in their final home game. But the Horned Frogs have dropped five of six and already lost to the Wildcats by 10 earlier in the year. I can't see them winning this time either, even at home. Kansas State is one of the very best defensive teams in the country and is on a 12-2 run vs. Big 12 opponents. Last week did feature a pair of subpar performances against Kansas and Baylor. But laying the shortest of numbers against TCU shouldn't be that much of a problem here. Play on KANSAS STATE

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This is a 10* on SAN ANTONIO

Denver is off a couple of head scratching defeats, both at home no less. One was to Utah, which would seem like not that big of a deal, but the Jazz were playing short-handed in that game. But more puzzling was the Nuggets losing to the Pelicans on Saturday, as 12.5-point favorites, game where they didn't even have to face Anthony Davis. I said to take New Orleans plus the points in that one and even I was surprised at the final result, especially considering NO trailed by as many as 19 at one point. Now the Nuggets must to go to San Antonio where the Spurs have won back to back games. They beat a hot Detroit team and a very good Oklahoma City team, both at home, in those last two games. This win streak comes on the heels of the annual "Rodeo Road Trip" which went very poorly vs. the Spurs this year (1-7 SU and ATS). The Spurs have now won six straight home games. These teams split a home and home back in late December with the home team winning both games. Look for that trend to continue here. Play on SAN ANTONIO

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This is an 8* play on HOUSTON

The Celtics remain a clear fade for us as even when they won Friday night vs. Washington, they still trailed in the second half. That win came on the heels of a four-game losing streak to start the 2nd half of the season. We'd just played against them Wednesday when they lost at home to Portland. It's a similar setup Sunday as they welcome in a Houston team that has won four in a row. Boston couldn't beat the Blazers (who were on a similar win streak) and it's tough seeing them beating the Rockets either. In the five games since All Star Weekend concluded, the Celtics are averaging only 101.4 points per game and have been held under the century mark three times. Houston has averaged 116.4 points per game since the break, topping 118 each of the last four games. The Rockets were short-handed for their last game, but still found a way to win on the road despite trailing Miami by as much as 21 points in the second half. James Harden scored 58 points in the come from behind win. Houston won the season's first meeting 127-113 and you should  expect a similar type score today. Play on HOUSTON

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This is a 10* play on Quinnipiac

Quinnipiac has a shot at at earning itself a share of the MAAC regular season title. All they need to do today is beat a Manhattan team that already beat on the road earlier this year. That will give them a 12-6 SU league mark, same as Iona, whose regular season is now complete. A loss today though would be deadly for the Bobcats. As many as three other teams could finish w/ an 11-7 SU league mark and that scenario unfolds, Quinnipiac could go into the MAAC Tournament as low as the #5 seed. Fortunately, it would appear Manhattan is going to offer little resistance today. The Jaspers have lost three in a row, scoring just 52, 59 and 54 points. That's actually pretty par for the course as they come in averaging only 56.9 PPG, which ranks second to last in the entire country! They had no answer for a 12 of 28 Quinnipiac three-point barrage in the first meeting and it should be more of the same in today's regular season finale. Look for the home team to honor its seniors with a big win. PLAY ON QUINNIPIAC

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This is an 8* play on UConn

Something will have to give here as USF has lost four in a row while UConn has dropped six straight. Certainly, the current state of Huskies hoops still takes some getting used to. However, they've at least been covering with regularity, going 8-2 ATS their last 10 games with both non-covers coming on the road. They actually haven't won a single game away from home all season, but are 12-4 SU in Storrs and that's where they are getting USF today. It just so happens that home favorite is the role that has treated UConn the best as they are 12-1 SU and 10-3 ATS. Laying just a short number here, against a subpar foe, thus seems advantageous. The Huskies have a scoring differential of +13.8 PPG at home. Yes, there was a time USF had a 17-6 record. But they've lost four straight, the last two coming by double digits, getting somewhat exposed in the process. Three days ago, UConn blew a 10-point lead against Wichita State and lost at the buzzer. They'll bounce back Sunday afternoon. Play on UCONN

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This is an 8* play on NEW MEXICO

New Mexico suffered quite the embarrassing loss on Wednesday as they fell to San Jose State, who is one of the worst teams in the entire country, 89-82 as 10.5 point favorites. That's something that just "can't happen," but lucky for the Lobos they are back in Albuquerque for this Saturday night tilt with Colorado State. The Rams won at Boise State on Wednesday as 6.5-point underdogs. It was their third straight victory, but the other two were over San Jose State and Wyoming, the two worst teams in the Mountain West. New Mexico has lost three in a row. I'll call for both streaks to end tonight as the Lobos are playing with revenge for a loss in Ft. Collins where they were actually two-point favorites. Despite what we've seen recently, New Mexico is the better of the two teams and CSU's recent efforts simply are not sustainable. Play on NEW MEXICO

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This is an 8* play on New Orleans

When looking at this line, you probably could have guessed that Anthony Davis will be sitting out for the Pelicans. You would be correct as the team played last night - and won - beating Phoenix 130-116. But given what a distraction Davis has become, maybe his absence isn't all that it's "cracked up to be?" The Pelicans shot the ball ridiculously well Friday night, especially from three-point range. It won't be that easy tonight in Denver, but they're also now getting a boatload of points. The Nuggets suffered a rare home defeat at the hands of Utah (who was short-handed) on Thursday, snapping a nine-game win streak here. Maybe the situation isn't all that ideal for New Orleans, but the pointspread is far too generous for a team that has covered 10 of its last 14 games. New Orleans usually scores a lot, whether Davis is in the lineup or not, and that makes covering against them as double digit chalk problematic to say the least. Play on NEW ORLEANS 

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This is a 10* play on Toledo

This is a big game in the MAC's Western Division where Toledo holds a one-game lead over Central Michigan. A win today by the road team would give them a two-game edge (duh!) as well as a season sweep of the Chippewas. CMU has been "money" against the spread lately, going 9-0-1 ATS its last 10 games, which includes covering that first meeting vs. Toledo where they were a nine-point underdog. Both teams were successful on the road earlier in the week with Toledo winning at Ball State and CMU winning at Eastern Michigan. Toledo's win, which came despite allowing their opponent to shoot 52.1%, seemed more impressive to me and I have them rated as the better team. CMU may average more than 90 PPG at home, but they won't get to that number here against a Rockets team allowing only 68.4 PPG. Play on TOLEDO

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This is a 10* play on AUBURN

The last time Auburn played at home, I took them and was richly rewarded with an easy win and cover. Facing Arkansas, they were laying a pretty big number, but nothing could stop the Tigers that night as they raced out to a 25-point halftime lead and never looked back. That game saw them shoot 17 of 33 from three-point range and it would be nice to get something similar today as they host Miss State in a revenge game. Auburn lost in Starkville last month by a score of 92-84. It was their most points allowed in a game this season and a really disappointing result given the Tigers shot 53.2% from the floor themselves. After getting blown out at Kentucky last Saturday, then barely escaping Georgia, this should be a welcome return home for the Tigers. Miss State has won five in a row, but that's come against the lower-half of the SEC. At home, Auburn is 13-2 with a scoring differential of +23.5 per game. They haven't shot well recently, but I'm banking on them shooting well here.  Play on AUBURN

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This is an 8* play on Brown

Not sure what the reason is for this line being bet down so much, but Brown is now a really great value play. The Bears are at home, facing a Columbia team that they already defeated on the road. They come in on a three-game win streak, having just beaten both Harvard and Dartmouth here at home. Columbia has just one win in its last eight games and it was by two points. So the Lions aren't likely to be roaring on the road. They are 3-11 SU in road/neutral site games and giving up an average of 78.5 points in those contests. Brown is 11-2 SU at home where it averages 81.5 PPG. All signs point to laying the relatively short number with the home team in this one. The Bears were able to win at Columbia despite making only three three-pointers in the game. Brown has yet to lose as a favorite this year as they are 8-0 in the role. Play on BROWN

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This is an 8* play on CAL POLY

Cal State Fullerton is only 13-14 overall this season, but they're 9-4 in the Big West and that's the second best record in the conference. But they were losers last Saturday to UCSB, falling by 15 as a four-point dog. It was just the second loss in the last 11 games. The team the Titans host Thursday has become somewhat familiar with losing as Cal Poly has dropped 10 of its last 12 games. They are in last place in the Big West, but did win their last game, which was at home against Hawaii. The Mustangs were eight point underdogs and won the game by eight. CS Fullerton is only 9-16 ATS overall and 2-6 ATS at home. Six of their last nine wins have come by seven points or fewer. Play on CAL POLY

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This is a 10* play on OKLAHOMA CITY 

Oklahoma City has not covered any of its last four contests. The most recent one was a 121-112 loss at Denver. The previous three all saw them fail to cover as a favorite. The only SU win in this stretch was a double overtime game vs. Utah. Today, they'll host a Philadelphia team that has had its own problems since returning from All Star Weekend. The Sixers have won two of the games, but barely as they beat Miami by four and New Orleans by only one. Depending when one bet that New Orleans game, it could have been a win or loss. Using the closing line of Sixers -2.5, it would be the third straight ATS loss for the team. I think some may be surprised over the size of this line, but remember Philly still doesn't have Joel Embiid. With a healthy Embiid in the lineup, they lost to the Thunder last month. They also won't have Boban Marjanovic in the lineup tonight. But perhaps more pertinent of all here is the Thunder's 19-game win streak over the Sixers, which is the longest active streak by one team over another in the league. Philly has beaten OKC just one time since the move from Seattle -- in 2008. Love the Thunder here as they are due to break out. Play on OKLAHOMA CITY

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This is a 10* play on Arkansas State

Georgia State is tied with Georgia Southern for second place in the Sun Belt, one game behind first place Texas State. Arkansas State is much further down the standings, several games off the pace. But this only meeting of the season should be closer than anticipated. The visiting Red Wolves come in one a two-game win streak. Both wins were at home, but they are 6-1 ATS their last seven road games with a total of 150 to 154.5. Georgia State is off a bad loss at Coastal Carolina where they gave up 95 points. They trailed by 25 at halftime. Too many points to lay here as it's a team unaccustomed to laying so many against a team that typically doesn't get as many. Play on ARKANSAS STATE

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This is a 10* play on BAYLOR

Baylor and Texas have a huge game tonight in Waco as both are looking to establish themselves as NCAA Tournament worthy teams. The latest "Bracketology" projections have both teams in, but Texas would seem to be in a pretty precarious state, given their 15-12 SU record. Unfortunately for tonight, the Longhorns will have to go in short-handed as their leading scorer Kerwin Roach II has been suspended for an off the court matter. They'll get no sympathy from a Baylor team, who has had to navigate the season without two of its top players, Tristan Clark and King McClure. Plus the Bears have revenge from a 12-point loss in Austin earlier this month. Baylor has performed surprisingly well without the two players, winning three of its last four games. I expect Texas to struggle without Roach. Play on BAYLOR

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This is an 8* play on Portland

I think its pretty apparent that Boston has a lot of problems going on right now. Last night, they were handed their worst defeat of the season, by Toronto, 118-95. They have little time to sulk as tonight they return home to face the red-hot Blazers. The Celtics are now 0-3 since the break and rapidly running out of excuses. Now all three losses did take place on the road. But Portland has had no such difficulty winning on the road, going 3-0 there since the break. It's a four-game win streak overall for the Blazers, who have also covered the spread in all four games. The latest win came in Cleveland Monday night by a score of 123-110. When coming off a double digit victory this season, Portland has gone 16-5 ATS in its next game. Given the recent form of the two teams here, I don't know how one can make a case for Boston, who is also 3-6 ATS playing in the second night of a back to back. Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 10* play on North Carolina

I said that there was no way Syracuse could reasonably be expected to compete Saturday night vs. Duke, even at home and with the Blue Devils playing without Zion Williamson. This is because of the situation with Jim Boeheim trumping everything. If you haven't been following the news, a car driven by Boeheim struck and killed a pedestrian late last week. The fact Boeheim is continuing to coach is somewhat mind-blowing, given that circumstance. The Orange actually played better than I though they would vs. Duke, but still lost by 10 at the Carrier Dome. Now they must turnaround and hit the road to face the team that just beat Duke, that being North Carolina. The Tar Heels are as hot as anyone in the country right now. Yes, they took full advantage of Williamson getting hurt when they beat Duke, but this is a team that has won its last two games - both against very good teams (Duke and Florida State) by a combined 34 points despite shooting just 9 of 40 from three-point land. They should destroy Syracuse tonight in Chapel Hill as the Orange lack the offensive punch to compete with a team that averages 88.4 PPG. Play on NORTH CAROLINA 

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This is an 8* play on NEW ORLEANS

I've bet against Philadelphia each of their last two games and gone 2-0 ATS. They barely got by Miami, winning by just four points at home. Then they got blown out by Portland, also at home. Now they take their act on the road and one player that won't be making the trek to the Big Easy is Joel Embiid. Embiid has missed those last two games, so that helps explain the slide. But giving up 130 points to the Blazers was definitely not a good look, Embiid or no Embiid. New Orleans just beat the Lakers Saturday night and did so with Anthony Davis not even suiting up. Davis should play tonight and he'd join seven teammates that were in double figures vs. LA, a 128-point effort that included the Pelicans highest scoring 1st quarter (43 points) all season. The Pelicans have an 18-11 record at home and thus looking like a strong play on the Monday card. Philly has gotten to play six out of its last seven games at home with the one road game coming against the Knicks. Their record is only .500 (14-14 SU) on the road. Play on NEW ORLEANS

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This is a 10* play on DETROIT

Initially, things weren't looking so good for Indiana without Victor Oladipo. They lost the first four games after it was announced their leading scorer was done for the year with a knee injury. But since then, the Pacers are 8-1 with the only loss coming to the team with the league's best record, Milwaukee. They've gone 7-2 ATS in those games. But on Monday, it appears as if they'll have to overcome more injuries with Myles Turner and Tyreke Evans still on the questionable list. They'll also have to overcome a Detroit team that is starting to build some of its own momentum after winning five out of its last six. That win streak has the Pistons in the coveted eighth spot in the Eastern Conference. They just went on the road and whipped Miami by 23 points. Tonight is a big revenge game in the Motor City as the Pistons lost to the Pacers by 37 back in December. Indiana is only 1-4 ATS on the division road and I think they are poised to lose another tonight. Play on DETROIT

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This is an 8* play on ARIZONA STATE

California is very bad. That shouldn't be any kind of newsflash for a team that is now 5-22 overall. But every time you think things may have bottomed out in Berkeley, they find a way to get worse. The latest setback came to an Arizona team that had lost and failed to cover seven in a row. It was also Cal's 15th loss in a row. They are 0-14 vs. the rest of the Pac 12 and 0-12 away from home. Their last win was before Christmas and against a San Jose State team that is among the very worst in the country. So Arizona State should roll tonight as they have already beaten Cal by double digits on the road. Now they get the Bears at home. The Sun Devils have posted two straight double digit wins, including 80-62 over Stanford on Wednesday. Other than Washington, ASU is probably the best team in the Pac 12. Maybe that's not saying much, but they'll win big Sunday. Play on ARIZONA STATE

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This is an 8* play on MICHIGAN STATE

Finally, the two top teams in the Big 10 get a chance to play one another. There's probably an argument to be made that Michigan State would have liked to play this game a little sooner in the season considering some of the attrition suffered on the injury front. But the Spartans keep on winning in spite of those injuries and I think are a great value getting points Sunday in Ann Arbor. Tom Izzo's team certainly hasn't had much difficulty covering the spread this season as their ATS record is a sterling 19-8. They'd covered three straight before getting caught laying 15.5 to Rutgers earlier in the week and they only won by 11. This will be only the third time getting points. While their ATS record as an underdog so far is 0-2 and Michigan is 16-0 SU at home, I still rate the visitors as the better team here. I was quite surprised to see the Wolverines have won the last three games in this rivalry. Not this time. Take the points. Play on MICHIGAN STATE

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This is a 10* play on CLEVELAND

Cleveland is actually favored here as they are coming off a win and Memphis is off a loss, last night, to the Clippers. While the idea of the Cavs laying points may scare off some, I think the situation calls for it as their opponents are both unrested and incredibly short-handed. Going on the road in the second night of a back to back is bad enough for a slumping Memphis team, but doing so without Jaren Jackson Jr, who was the #4 pick in last year's draft, makes things even tougher. The Grizzlies have lost 15 of their last 19 games anyway and are 9-21 SU on the road. The fact that they blew a fourth quarter lead last night makes this even tougher. Cleveland played one of its better games of the season Thursday night, beating Phoenix 111-98 and they led comfortably most of the way. Kevin Love is now back, so the Cavs aren't as bad as they look on paper. Memphis is 2-6 SU and ATS in the second game of a back to back this year. Play on CLEVELAND 

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This is a 10* play on DUKE

This ACC showdown has taken on a rather ominous tone due to some shocking events over the course of the week. Duke lost superstar Zion Williamson to injury just 33 seconds into the North Carolina game on Wednesday and was predictably unable to overcome his absence, losing 88-72 to their rival. But really that's nothing compared to what happened with Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim just a few hours later. A car being driven by Boeheim struck and killed a pedestrian on a highway. Unbelievably, Boeheim will coach Saturday. So that's the backdrop for what is a big revenge game for the Blue Devils. They were ill-prepared to deal with the Williamson injury when it happened, but now go into this game knowing he won't be playing and they've had 72 hours to prepare. Duke obviously has a lot of talent and it's not like they need any more motivation than the fact they lost at home to Syracuse last month, I don't see how Boeheim can have his team adequately prepared given his circumstance. Duke is 12-2 straight up when coming off an ACC loss the last three seasons. Play on DUKE

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This is an 8* play on St. Joe's

I'm not sure UMass should be favored against anyone in the A-10, even at home, given they're the last place team in the conference. The Minutemen are just 9-17 SU overall with a 2-11 A-10 record. But here's the real kicker. They are 0-12 ATS as a favorite this season, losing nine of those games straight up! Most of those games have taken place here in Amherst where they're just 2-10 ATS overall. UMass already lost to St. Joe's earlier in the year in what was a two-point game. St. Joe's won despite a 33.9 FG% and making only 4 of 23 three-point attempts. While the road has been far from kind to the Hawks, today's game would certainly qualify as the most "winnable" (away from home) on the Atlantic 10 slate. UMass just lost to a bad George Washington team by 12 on Wednesday, which was another time they were favored (-2.5 on the road). Given their ATS record as chalk, I don't see how one couldn't fade them Saturday. Play on ST. JOE'S

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This is an 8* play on PORTLAND

Despite an off-night from leading scorer Damian Lillard, the Blazers were still able to go on the road and beat Brooklyn - handily - Thursday night, winning by a final score of 113-99. They were just three-point favorites. One has to imagine Lillard will play better here, even if it is against a tougher opponent. He shot just 5 of 21 against the Nets. This is a 26.0 PPG scorer mind you, now backed by Enes Kanter, who contributed 18 pts and nine rebounds in his Blazers debut. As for Philly, they struggled to beat the Heat here Thursday night as they were without Joel Embiid. It looks like they'll be without their starting center for at least a week, so those struggles could continue even with a strong-looking roster. They trailed Miami going into the fourth quarter and with as little as 1:56 to go. While a late surge got them the win, the Sixers still failed to cover, which was good as I bet against them. I'll do the same again here knowing that Portland crushed them earlier this year by 34, another game where the Sixers didn't have Embiid. Philly is a season-best 17 games over .500 right now and likely to drop a game or two. The Blazers are 14-5 ATS coming off a double digit win. Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 10* play on CHARLOTTE

Charlotte starts the 2nd half of their season with a key division home game vs. Washington. The Hornets, unlike the Wizards, are likely playoff bound this year thanks to a watered down Eastern Conference. But just because the East is so watered down doesn't mean the Hornets should take a playoff berth for granted. They lost four of five going into All Star Weekend, but now return home where they are a very strong 19-9 SU while averaging 113.3 PPG. Though the loss took place a while ago, there is revenge in play here with the Wizards, who beat the Hornets 130-126 back on December 29th. But that was in D.C. and back when Washington still had John Wall in the lineup (Wall is done for the year). The Wiz are a really lousy road team (8-23 SU) and road games where the oddsmakers expect a lot of scoring have REALLY been their undoing. The team's ATS record in away games with a total of at least 230 pts is 0-6-1 and they've lost all seven straight up. Charlotte is 1-9 SU in games where Tony Parker doesn't play, but he's expected back in the lineup for tonight. Cody Zeller is also now healthy. I look for the Hornets to roll in their first game since the break. Play on CHARLOTTE

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This is a 10* play on St. Mary's

St. Mary's is a good team, but hasn't been covering spreads lately. They are 1-6 ATS last seven games. But tonight is a situation conducive for them to win big. They're playing a Pacific team they already beat, by 12, early in the month. That was one of the games they did not cover, but it was close as they were 14-point favorites. The key was Pacific shot 67 percent in the first half. That won't happen again in tonight's rematch. In the two games since playing SMU, the Tigers have scored 59 points twice. They have scored more than 66 just one time in the last 11 games. Because they are on the road this time, St. Mary's doesn't need to win by as much to cover the spread. It's not asking too much for the Gaels to win by double digits again vs. a team barely averaging 60 points per game in WCC action. Play on ST. MARY'S

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This is an 8* play on MIAMI

I'll be playing both the side and total in this Miami-Philly game. For the side, I'm taking the Heat plus the points. They'll be getting both Goran Dragic and Derrick Jones Jr back in the rotation tonight. This is great news, particularly with Dragic, who is their starting point guard. To me, this is too many points for Philly to be laying in the first game after a long layoff. It's a situation that's conducive to suffering an upset. I know the 76ers look strong on paper, but Joel Embiid isn't playing tonight. He's going to miss the next week due to a knee injury. I know it's been awhile since they last played, but the Sixers are just 5-12 ATS off a double digit win. Before the All Star Break, they beat the Knicks by 15. Miami won at Dallas right before the Break and Dallas is a good home team. They can win here as well. Take the points. Play on MIAMI

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This is a 10* play on Fresno State

There's been a highly unusual pattern to emerge from past meetings between Air Force and Fresno State. Fresno State almost always wins (11 of the last 13 meetings), but Air Force usually leaves with the cash (10-2-1 ATS in those same 13 games). This pattern has really held true here in Fresno where the home team has won seven straight times, but the Flyboys have covered six of those times. With a double digit spread tonight, I can see how some might think this pattern will continue. However, I see something different unfolding, that being a lopsided win for FSU. This particular Air Force team is really bad on the road. They are 1-8 SU and averaging just 61.1 PPG. They've also only covered one of their last six games overall. Fresno State has won five of six, the lone exception being a one-point loss to Utah State. The Bulldogs average 78.2 points per game at home. Play on FRESNO STATE

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This is an 8* play on MICHIGAN STATE

Michigan State comes into tonight a little shorthanded, but not shorthanded enough to the point where they can't blow out Rutgers. Already without Joshua Langford (done for year), the Spartans are now without Nick Ward for an indefinite period of time due to a hairline fracture in his shooting (left) hand. But like I said, Sparty should still roll tonight. All the way back on November 30th, they opened up Big 10 play with an easy 11-point victory over the Scarlet Knights, in New Jersey. While MSU is dealing with some physical injuries, Rutgers must somehow overcome the emotional toll of losing on a buzzer beater to Iowa on Saturday. It was their fourth loss in five games and they seem to be heading down the tubes. Michigan State is one of the few teams in the country talented enough to overcome injuries. Play on MICHIGAN STATE

AAA

This is an 8* play on DRAKE

Give credit to Drake as the season-ending injury to leading scorer Nick Norton has not really derailed their season in any way. Sure, initially, it looked like it might. Norton tore his ACL back in early January and the Bulldogs lost the next two games. But they've since won 9 of 12 and are still tied for 1st in the Missouri Valley at 9-5 SU. The team they are tied with is Loyola Chicago, who should be a familiar name based on last season's run to the Final Four. Drake has lost twice already to the Ramblers, so that puts them at a disadvantage for that top seed in next month's conference tournament. But a strong finish to the regular season could certainly go a long way and I don't see the Bulldogs losing at home to a Bradley team that's due for a letdown after four straight wins, three of them upsets. The Braves got blown out by Drake (lost by 17) on their home floor last month, and I don't see them performing a whole lot better on the road. Drake basically averages 80 points per game at home. Play on DRAKE

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This is a 10* play on Wisconsin

Wisconsin certainly has some work to do. Because they've lost two straight, the Badgers almost certainly will fall out of the new top 25 when that poll is released later today. But don't make the mistake of thinking this isn't one of the 25 best teams in America.  Before losing to Michigan and Michigan State, both top 10 teams mind you, the Badgers had won six in a row. They had covered the spread in all six games as well. Tonight, they are going to play one of the six teams they beat during that streak, Illinois. They beat the Illini 72-60 back on Jan 23rd and that was on the road as 4.5-point favorites. The Illini come into this rematch riding their own four-game win streak, which includes three upsets, the latest taking place at Ohio State Thursday. But they seem ill-suited to compete against the Badgers as they've dropped four in a row to them, failing to cover all four times as well. Also, before beating Ohio State, the Illini had just one road win all season. Wisconsin is a very good defensive team and after being held below 60 pts in its last three games, they should do some damage offensively here. Play on WISCONSIN

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This is a 10* play on ARIZONA

Arizona has lost six in a row, but don't give up on them just yet as I believe the Wildcats are due to have a breakout performance tonight in Boulder. Not only have the Wildcats lost six in a row, they've failed to cover the spread in all six games. Colorado is 4-0 SU/ATS its last four, so again, this looks like two teams heading in different directions. But sometimes that's exactly what you want as the underdog looks to be underappreciated in this one as Arizona beat Colorado earlier in the year, 64-56 as six-point favorites. It would seem as if the line has shifted too far for the rematch as Colorado has not been favored by this much against anybody since facing Cal back on January 24th. They were the underdog for three of the last four games and only -1.5 vs. Arizona State Wednesday, a game they won by only four points. This is the first time the Buffaloes have won four straight in conference play since the 2005-06 season. It's a most opportune time to fade them. Play on ARIZONA

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analysis soon

This is a 10* play on BUTLER

Both DePaul and Butler are coming off losses. DePaul's was definitely worse, even though it came against a top 10 opponent. They were blown out by Marquette 92-73 at home. Butler lost by four at St. John's that same day (Tuesday). The Bulldogs are in much better position to rebound, even though they've lost four of six just like the Blue Demons. Butler won the first meeting, rather convincingly, exactly one month ago. It was an 87-69 game where they shot lights out. Interesting is that they won so handily on the road despite attempting just four free throws. DePaul remains pretty shaky on defense as they've only been favored twice in Big East play. Butler sees its scoring rise to 77.9 PPG at home and after watching them play three consecutive games decided by four points or less, this should be a far more comfortable result. They are simply the better team as they've already proven by winning 10 of the last 11 meetings. Play on BUTLER

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This is a 10* play on WASHINGTON

Despite winning every conference game but one (their last one), Washington doesn't ever seem to get the respect that it deserves. That probably has to do with the fact the Pac 12 isn't very good this year. There's a good chance only one team from this league makes the NCAA Tournament. But presently, I don't think there's an argument that UW isn't the best team. They are head and shoulders above the rest defensively and tonight they'll face a rival that has been terrible most of this season. Washington State may have pulled off back to back upsets, winning at Arizona State (were +15.5) and Arizona (were +11.5), but before that the Cougs had lost every Pac 12 game but one. Washington is off their first conference loss here; 75-63 to Arizona State. But they've had a full week to recover. They'd gone 10-0 SU and ATS in conference play before that. That includes a 22-point win over Wazzu in Seattle. It shouldn't be much more difficult the second time around as I predict another double digit victory. Play on WASHINGTON

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This is an 8* play on IOWA STATE

Iowa State invades Manhattan (Kansas, that is) for a game pitting two teams seemingly going in different directions. Kansas State has risen to the top of the Big 12 on the back of its outstanding defense. The Wildcats have won 9 of 10. Iowa State suffered an outright loss in its last game, falling 92-83 at home to TCU. But that game was exactly one week ago. The Cyclones have had more than enough time to prepare for this showdown where I believe they are the better team. I think it's instructive to note Kansas State wasn't even in the top 25 until this week. They certainly can be offensively challenged, even at home where they only average 63.8 points per game. Iowa State is the top offensive team in the conference and this will be just the fourth time they are a dog this season. They've covered two of the previous three times. The 'Clones also have a bit of revenge to exact as they lost at home to KSU, 58-57 (were -8.5) back on January 12th. Kansas State's only loss in the L10 games came out of conference, so they've beaten every Big 12 team. They won't beat Iowa State twice. Play on IOWA STATE

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This is an 8* play on Brown

Over its last four games, Cornell has pulled off three upsets. Last week was certainly good for the Big Red as they won at Dartmouth (83-80) and Harvard (67-61). They were underdogs of 3.5 and 9.5 points respectively in those two contests. They are one of three teams tied for second in the Ivy League with a 4-2 conference record. (Yale is 5-1). A couple games back is Brown (2-4), who managed to beat Princeton last Saturday after losing to Penn the previous night. Both games were at home. Maybe you're somewhat surprised to see me on Brown here, given that they are the road team and lost both matchups against Cornell last year. But I view the Bears as the better team as the last week has clouded the oddsmakers' judgement on Cornell, who is 0-3 ATS this season as a home favorite of three points or less or pick. Also, it should be mentioned that they trailed Harvard by 13 at halftime in the last game. Cornell isn't a particularly strong offensive team (only average 67.4 PPG at home) and they also turn the ball over too much. Brown is the better team defensively and should win going away here. Play on BROWN

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This is a 10* Play on Georgia State

Georgia State is one of several teams vying for Sun Belt Conference supremacy. They enter Friday tied for second place (with UT Arlington), a game behind Texas State. UT Arlington lost last night, which was a break for the Panthers. So too is drawing South Alabama in this spot as the underdog Jaguars are on a two-game losing streak and have just one win away from home this entire season. USA is pretty weak defensively (78.8 PPG allowed on the road) and that's something Georgia State should be able to exploit seeing as they average 81.8 PPG at home. This is not the 1st meeting of the season between the two sides. Georgia State won the first, almost exactly one month ago, 69-66. They did not cover (as they were 4-point favorites), but there's value for the rematch given the line should be higher based on the fact the Panthers were four-point favorites on the road. They shot only 39.0% and still won on the road. They'll shoot much better tonight and win big. Play on GEORGIA STATE

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This is a 10* play on ARIZONA 

Utah really burned me on Saturday. They were down 22 at UCLA, yet came all the way back and won at the buzzer, 93-92. It was their second upset win of the week as they'd won at USC last Wednesday. That's a huge difference from the previous week when they lost twice at home, both time as favorites. Tonight, they are back in Salt Lake facing an Arizona team that has lost five in a row and reeling (scandal!). But the Wildcats have already beaten the Utes once this year. They've won 16 of the last 18 meetings overall. Something to consider is Utah shot 56.6% in that first meeting and still didn't win. They couldn't win despite that shooting and are were lucky to win Saturday. I don't think Utah is the better team here, so I'll take the points. Play on UTAH

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This is a 10* play on ATLANTA

The Knicks are setting a new benchmark for futility. They lost again last night, 126-111 to Philadelphia. That makes it 18 in a row. Since November 25th, they have lost 33 of 36 games. Two of their three wins were games that went to overtime (both two point wins) and the other was against the Lakers without LeBron. Playing in the second night of a back to back, right before going on break, I don't see the Knicks turning things around here. Yes, they've beaten Atlanta twice this year. But that'll have the Hawks extra motivated tonight. The Hawks picked up a nice win Tuesday against the Lakers (who had LeBron). This should not be a hard game for them. It's a rare spot where they're favored tonight, but it's certainly an ideal opponent. The Knicks will put up no resistance as they are 1-9 SU on no rest this year, losing by an average of 11 PPG. Play on ATLANTA

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This is a 10* play on NC STATE

NC State recovered from an absolutely dreadful three-game stretch to beat Pitt over the weekend, 79-76, on the road. They were two-point favorites, so they got the cash too. Those three previous games read like a horror movie though. They lost by one to Virginia, scored only 24 points against Va Tech, then gave up 113 points to North Carolina. Still though, the Wolfpack are a team to be taken seriously in the ACC and I feel they'll come through tonight in Raleigh against Syracuse. The Orange find themselves closer to the top of the conference with only Duke, Virginia and UNC ahead of them. They beat Duke (in Durham), yet the market still really doesn't respect them that much and I'm not sure I do either. They are 8-3 ATS in conference play, including 4-1 on the road. But ... save for Duke, those road wins came against the bottom tier of the league. The Orange recently lost by 18 to Florida State ... at home. They are offensively challenged and thus I don't see them keeping pace with a NC State team that averages over 82 PPG.  Play on NC STATE.

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This is a 10* play on INDIANA

Indiana continues to surprise despite being without Victor Oladipo. Monday saw them win for a sixth straight time, 99-99 over Charlotte. They got off to a fast start in that one and were able to hold on after jumping out to 16-point halftime lead. They're 5-1 ATS during the six-game win streak and getting points tonight against Milwaukee. The Bucks, who continue to lead the Eastern Conference, have been equally as hot - if not hotter. They've won and covered seven of their last eight, including an easy one in Chicago Monday night. But this has all the makings of an "upset" with the Pacers already being 4-1 SU/ATS in the home dog role this season. It's pretty clear to me that this team isn't being given the proper credit right now due to the Oladipo injury. But the rest of the team has more than picked up the slack. This is a strong defensive group and the last time they hosted Milwaukee, the result was a 113-97 win with only 12 points from Oladipo. Indiana is 22-7 SU at home and a great value here getting points. Play on INDIANA

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This is an 8* play on TEXAS

Kansas State, not Kansas, is currently leading the Big 12. The Wildcats are 8-2 in conference play and have won three straight. The fact that they are in first place is pretty surprising when you consider they weren't even ranked going into the weekend and the Big 12 has multiple ranked teams. I view tonight as an opportunity to fade a team that has clearly moved from "underrated" to "overrated" in a pretty short period of time. The Wildcats' road record is only 4-4 and that includes four straight wins. They are in Austin tonight to take on a Texas team coming off a huge road win at West Virginia on Saturday where they prevailed by 22 points. The Longhorns have covered four straight and also have the advantage of having won in Manhattan by 20 earlier in the year. The revenge angle can sometimes be overrated. For example, WVU was playing with revenge against Texas on Saturday and that ended up meaning nothing. Revenge is again overrated here as Texas is the better team despite being unranked. The 'Horns 6-5 conference record is a little misleading when you consider those five losses have come by a total of 20 points. They have two 20+ points and also beat Kansas by double digits. Play on TEXAS

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This is an 8* Play on Philadelphia 

Kyrie Irving won't play tonight for Boston and that means big trouble for the Celtics going up against a 76ers team that has really begun to hit its stride. I took Philly Sunday, laying a similar number to the Lakers. They won 143-120, easily covering the number. I expect the same here. With Tobias Harris on board, the Sixers have as strong a starting five as any team in the league outside of Golden State. They are also 23-6 straight up here at home where they are winning by an average of almost 10 PPG. Boston has lost two straight, both as favorites. After losing at the buzzer to the Lakers last Thursday, they blew a huge lead against the Clippers Saturday and lost by double digits as double digit favorites. The Celtics are only a .500 team on the road (13-13 SU) and they are 3-6 (both SU and ATS) as an underdog this season. Philadelphia is 71-43 ATS its L114 home games and is in top form right now. Don't expect them to take the Celtics lightly as they're 0-2 against them this season, including an OT loss on Christmas Day. This is their revenge. Play on PHILADELPHIA

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This is an 8* Play on PORTLAND

The last time Portland came to Oklahoma City, the number was only +4. While the Thunder did win that day, 123-114, one can only presume the real reason for the spike in the line is that the Blazers had to play Sunday and the Thunder did not. It was the closest of losses for Portland yesterday as they went down 102-101 after getting outscored 24-9 in the fourth quarter by Dallas. That should have them pretty eager to suit up this evening. OKC has won 10 of 11, but this looks to be too high of a spread in game between two of the top four teams in the Western Conference. Even with yesterday's loss, Portland has still won 7 of 10. All things considered, these teams are pretty even. OKC was a slight dog when it won at Houston Saturday. That's a Rockets team just below the Blazers in the Western Conference standings. Portland is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS loss. Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 8* play on DETROIT

It won't take many wins (38?) to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference this year. But regardless of how many it does take, there's no denying that both the Pistons and Wizards are coming off "good weeks" as far as keeping their postseason hopes relevant goes. Washington is coming off two straight wins while Detroit has won three in row. Now the Wizards happened to beat Chicago and Cleveland, two of the very worst teams in the league. The Pistons are coming off a home and home sweep of the Knicks, who have the worst record in the league. So there's really no need to alter our reads on the respective teams. Washington is still a really bad road team with an ATS record of 8-20 away from home (8-21 SU). So there's not much argument to be made for liking them getting such a short number. The Pistons are more rested coming into tonight and recent home wins over Dallas and Denver indicate that this should not be a hard number to cover. Washington is 5-21 ATS the L26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Detroit has a 16-13 SU record at home. Play on DETROIT

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This is a 10* play on CLEVELAND

It's the teams with the two worst records in the league meeting Monday night in Cleveland. The Cavaliers (11-45) are a half game up on the miserable Knicks, who have lost 16 in a row. That streak matches the worst in franchise history. They've also lost 24 of 25 and 29 out of the last 31. While this may seem to be the Knicks best chance at winning in a long time, the same holds true for the Cavs, who come in as the favorite for only the fifth time all season. The Knicks already lost once here in Cleveland, two months ago, by a score of 113-106. Kevin Love could play tonight for the Cavs, who are likely to be the more motivated team by virtue of playing at home. This very likely will be an ugly game, but predicting the Knicks to win on the road seems a bit foolish. Therefore, I will "hold my nose" and take Cleveland, who has actually won three times since the Knicks last won a game. Play on CLEVELAND

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This is a 10* play on OREGON

Oregon's season was dealt the worst possible blow when Bol Bol was lost for the year, but they've continued to manage without him. They won Wednesday, 73-62 over Cal. While they did not cover the spread in that game (were -16), it was still a pretty impressive that the won so handily in spite of turning the ball over 15 times and attempting just five free throws. With a more manageable line tonight, look for the Ducks to cover this time. They host a Stanford team that's in a pretty rough scheduling spot. The Cardinal are playing a third straight road game here and second in four days. They have won the first two, against Cal and Oregon State. But this is clearly the toughest of three. Stanford was a 7.5-point dog when it beat Oregon State Thursday, by a score of 83-60. Clearly, that was the best possible performance from the Cardinal and thus unlikely to be repeated. PG Davis also left that game with a head injury and did not return. So his status is up in the air. Stanford is just 2-9 ATS after giving up less than 60 points in their last game. Play on OREGON

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This is a 10* play on PHILADELPHIA

About two weeks ago the Sixers beat the Lakers 121-105. They were 7.5 point favorites on the road. If any of that sounds odd to you, be aware that LeBron James did not play. Obviously, there needs to be some sort of adjustment made by the oddsmakers now that LeBron is back in the Lakers lineup. But a Lakers team that is simply mediocre at best should still be a bigger underdog for this rematch in Philly. The Sixers are also stronger now than they were two weeks ago, thanks to the Tobias Harris trade. In terms of a starting five, the 76ers have one of the best groups in the league. They just beat a very good Denver team by seven here at home on Friday. That same night saw the Lakers win in Boston, but the win came on a buzzer beater and that was after they trailed the Celtics by as many as 18 points. Remember that with James in the lineup, the Lakers lost by 42 to an Indiana team (Wednesday) that no longer has Victor Oladipo. The 76ers are 22-6 SU at home this year and 70-43 ATS their L113 home games. Play on PHILADELPHIA 

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This is a 10* play on UTAH

Utah is hot, San Antonio is not. It's as simple as that Saturday night for this Western Conference clash. The Jazz have won 13 of their last 18 games, mirroring last year's second half surge. They are also 9-2 the L11 home games. The Spurs have not gotten off to a good start on their annual "Rodeo Road Trip" as they're now 0-3 after tasting defeat in Portland Thursday night. I didn't like them in that spot (played against them) and with this being a third road game in four nights and fourth in six nights, it's just as difficult to see them winning - or even covering - here. Speaking of covering, that's something San Antonio has not done for six straight games. There were two meetings in December between these teams and the home team won handily both times. The Spurs have been a pretty bad road team as their record away from home is now 10-18 straight up. Of the two, Utah is the much better defensive team. All signs point to an easy Jazz victory tonight. Play on UTAH.

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This is a 10* release on UCLA

Very different results for these teams from Wednesday as Utah went to USC and won while UCLA lost at home to Colorado. Those results may have been different, but the home/road designations will be the same Saturday when they meet. The Utes have surprisingly won four of five on the conference road, but I wouldn't look for that to continue as they're only 1-4 SU and ATS all-time in Westwood. UCLA is 10-5 team at home and off back to back losses. Not only did they fall here to Colorado on Wednesday, they lost at Washington last Saturday. That puts the Bruins somewhat into desperation mode tonight and I don't have much hesitation laying the number considering they average more than 80 PPG at Pauley Pavilion. Despite the road prowess, Utah has only won 3 of 10 games where they were the underdog.  They are allowing 76.8 PPG on the road. Play on UCLA

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This is a 10* play on TEXAS STATE

Texas State has been a real surprise as the Bobcats are one of three teams currently tied atop the Sun Belt with a 7-3 SU record. Their overall record is 18-5 SU, which is easily the best of any team in the conference. In fact, every team but one (Georgia State) has at least 10 losses. Tonight the Bobcats look to at least preserve their first place standing in a home game vs. Coastal Carolina, who is just one game back in the standings. The Chanticleers had won and covered their last five games before losing to UT Arlington by 20 on Thursday, a game that was expected to be close (line was +1.5). Texas State had actually lost two in a row (one to TX Arlington) before beating Appalachian State Thursday. With three straight ATS losses, the Bobcats appear to be undervalued in this spot. They already won at Coastal Carolina earlier in the year, doing so 65-61 as 2.5-point favorites. Here in San Marcos, Texas State owns a strong 10-2 record while outscoring the opposition by 16.5 PPG. Play on TEXAS STATE

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This is an 8* play on AUBURN

The SEC has only three ranked teams, but that belies the strength of this league. Auburn is a team that isn't even ranked, but should be considered a real darkhorse come NCAA Tournament time. You'll notice that despite their unranked designation, the Tigers are just a short road underdog here vs. LSU, who is #21 in the country. Last Saturday, I played against LSU and they lost (as 10-point favorites) here in Baton Rouge to a struggling Arkansas team. They did bounce back from that loss by beating Mississippi State, but that required overcoming a double digit deficit in the second half, then overtime. It was the third OT win in SEC play alone this year for LSU. Auburn comes into this game on a three-game roll. All three wins have been by double digits. They are one of the top offensive teams in the country and I believe poised to close the regular season strong. Play on AUBURN

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This is an 8* play on MIAMI

Second time in a row we'll be playing against Sacramento. We chose to lay the points with Houston on Wednesday and they really handed it to the Kings in a 127-101 game. That snapped Sacramento's three-game win streak. Maybe the most surprising thing about the Kings is how they've made the most of the times that they've been favored. They've gone 12-1 straight up and 11-2 against the spread in those games and come in as chalk tonight vs. Miami. But give me the Heat and the points after they just upset the Blazers in Portland Tuesday night. Miami is 8-2 ATS after winning a game outright as a dog. They have a 15-8 ATS record as an underdog and have covered 16 of their 25 road games so far. I do not see the Kings staying above .500 for too long. They're still weak defensively. Miami has revenge for an early season loss at home. Play on MIAMI

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This is an 8* play on YALE

Two of the Ivy League's heavyweights meet here with Yale hosting Princeton. Maybe you did a double take when you saw the only team with a perfect Ivy League record (Princeton) getting so many points. But Yale is the right call here as they've lost only one time in their L10 games and their record at home remains perfect (6-0). After losing at rival Harvard last Friday, they blew out Dartmouth (on the road) Saturday. They have covered 8 of the 11 times they have been favored this year. Part of the reason it is easy to like the Bulldogs at home (besides the perfect record) is they average 87 PPG. Princeton has won seven straight but will be playing its third in a row on the road. That puts them at a significant disadvantage as the home team is on an 8-3-1 ATS run in this rivalry (Princeton 1-5-1 ATS L7 times visiting Yale). Play on YALE

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This is a 10* play on BROWN

You have to hand it to Pennsylvania. This season could have easily gone off the rails when last  year's leading scorer Ryan Betley (an all-Ivy League player) was lost for the season (to an ACL injury). But the Quakers have circled the wagons, even beating Villanova, and have a 13-7 record coming into tonight. But their Ivy League brethren aren't taking it easy on them, that's for sure. Penn is just 1-3 in conference games. Here they're up against a team with an identical overall and conference record, that being Brown. The host Bears got blown out by Harvard in their last game. But they are 8-1 SU at home and that's a very big deal in a game the oddsmakers have listed as basically a pick em. Brown is averaging 82.6 points per game here at home. Penn is playing for a third straight time on the road. Brown has triple revenge. We're seeing Penn finally slow down (probably due to the loss of Betley) and that continues here. Play on BROWN

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This is a 10* play on PORTLAND

San Antonio essentially waved the proverbial "white flag" last night as it sat both DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge against Golden State. Thus, the final result was rather predictable and sure enough they lost 141-102. Not that they had much of a chance, but giving up 49 pts in the third quarter certainly didn't help. The Spurs are now 0-2 to start the annual "Rodeo Road Trip" as they also lost in Sacramento Monday. Though DeRozan and Aldridge will presumably both play tonight, it's not like Portland is an easy place to play. And the Blazers are looking to bounce back from an embarrassing loss they suffered on Tuesday to Miami, also a National TV game. I don't see Portland losing two in a row at home, so lay the points. Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 10* play on Western Kentucky

Western Kentucky definitely deserves to be favored by more than they are Thursday night at Rice. The Hilltoppers are certainly playing well of late. They've won five out of their last six games and Saturday's 76-59 beatdown of UTEP was the most definitive of the bunch. A strong finish and getting to the free throw line were both key in that win. But the Hilltoppers have been winning in a variety of ways lately, which is more than we can say for Rice. The Owls have lost five of seven and while all five losses have been by four points or less, this isn't a team worth your investment. They are bad at the defensive end (allow 78.3 PPG). Being that they are usually the underdog, Rice does sport a good ATS record. But the line is simply way too short tonight against a vastly superior opponent. WKU is 7-3 ATS in conference play in its own right. Play on WESTERN KENTUCKY

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This is an 8* play on SMU

This game is a must have for SMU, which has dropped two straight. But those two losses were both on the road and to good teams, Wichita State and Cincinnati. Tonight, they are back home and facing a South Florida team that is a surprising 15-6 straight up. The Bulls have won three in a row and have done even more damage this year at the betting window where they are 16-5 ATS overall, including 8-1 in conference play. They are also 6-1 ATS as dogs. But they have not won four straight conference games since joining the American. They have also not had much luck here at Moody Coliseum where they are just 1-5 SU all-time. SMU is almost always a strong home team. While they have lost four home games this year, they are still outscoring visiting teams by 11.7 points per game. Play on SMU

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This is a 10* Play on Houston

Houston is at the end of a four-game road trip here. But I expect them to play well against the overachieving Kings. In the second game of a back to back on Monday, they won by eight at Phoenix. That followed a very impressive performance at Utah where they won by 27. The Kings have won three in a row, all at home, and just upset the Spurs Monday. Who would have thought they'd be three games over .500 after 53 games? Not I. Things are starting to come together for the Rockets with Chris Paul back in the lineup. Earlier this season, they blew Sacramento out by 20 points. The Kings still give up too many points to be taken seriously. Houston covers the small number. Play on HOUSTON

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This is a 10* play on PROVIDENCE

Providence has some revenge on its mind when it hosts Georgetown Wednesday night. They lost a double overtime game to the Hoyas last month by a score of 96-90. The Friars aren't used to losing in this Big East rivalry. They'd previously beaten Georgetown eight straight times! It's been almost five years since the Hoyas won here in Rhode Island. Both teams are off losses here and in the case of Providence, they've lost two in a row. Both losses (Seton Hall, DePaul) were on the road though. They've had an extra day to prepare for this rematch as Georgetown played Sunday at Villanova. The Hoyas are last in the league defensively, so look for the Friars to break out of their offensive slump. Play on PROVIDENCE

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This is an 8* play on VANDERBILT

Vandy has had a lot of trouble winning games of late, but tonight sets up as an "ambush" spot for them against Arkansas. The Razorbacks just won - as 10-point underdogs - over LSU this past weekend. They're probably still feeling pretty good about themselves, especially now that they've covered four in a row. But it wasn't that long ago that the Hogs were suffering through their own tough stretch. Before those four straight ATS wins, they'd lost four in a row straight up and were 1-7 ATS over an eight-game stretch. They only beat LSU by one point on Saturday, despite shooting a blistering 58.3% from the field. They aren't likely to shoot that well again tonight. Vandy is 0-8 in SEC play and lost nine straight overall. Despite this, they will not go down easy Wednesday night. Expect a motivated effort from a team desperate for a SEC win. Arkansas has been favored by more than a point only twice in conference play. Play on VANDERBILT

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This is an 8* play on the LAKERS

All of a sudden, Indiana has won two in a row. This is a rather dramatic turn from the way things had been going since the season-ending injury suffered by leading scorer Victor Oladpio. Before beating the Heat and Pelicans, the Pacers had lost four in a row. They're still struggling to score as they've averaged less than 100 PPG in the six games withould Oladipo. The 109 they scored last night in New Orleans was the most of any of the six games. This being the second night of a back to back, it's tough to like the Pacers chances. Last night, they faced New Orleans without Anthony Davis. Tonight, it's the Lakers with a returning LeBron James. The Lakers will be rested and ready, James in particular, as he sat out Saturday's loss to the Warriors. James' official return to the lineup was two nights earlier and the Lakers beat the Clippers 123-120. They're a team fighting to get back into the top eight in the Western Conference and tonight's matchup is theirs for the taking. Play on LA LAKERS

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This is an 8* play on PHOENIX

Houston could not possibly have played any better than it did Saturday in Utah. Against a very hot Jazz team, they won going away, 125-98 as seven-point pups. James Harden continued his record-setting streak with 43 points, his 26th game in a row scoring 30 or more. With Chris Paul likely to play tonight, the expectation is going to be the Rockets will roll in Phoenix. After all, the Suns are a team they have beaten eight consecutive times. Furthermore, Phoenix is on a season-worst 10-game losing streak right now and second leading scorer T.J. Warren is M.I.A. But, I'm here to advise that you should "pump the brakes" on what has been a wildly inconsistent Houston team that is 11-14 on the road and playing a third game in four nights. The Rockets are 5-14 ATS after topping 115 points in their last game. Phoenix was actually favored in their last game when they lost at home to Atlanta. They are 2-0 ATS this season when coming off an outright loss as a favorite. Play on PHOENIX

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This is a 10* play on PENN STATE

The idiom "If I didn't have bad luck, I'd have none at all" seems quite apropos for this year's Penn State basketball team. What has happened to the Nittany Lions in Big 10 play is downright mystifying. They're 0-10 straight up with the majority of the games being close. Last week's home game vs. nationally ranked Purdue was either the icing on the cake, or final nail in the coffin, depending on your perspective. PSU rallied back from a 17-point deficit to force overtime, only to end up not covering as 7.5-point dogs (lost 99-90). This team is so much better than its conference record that it isn't even funny anymore. They play at Northwestern Monday. Like the Nittany Lions, the Wildcats had the weekend off. They're also on a losing streak, just two games mind you, but both were double digit affairs. The Wildcats opened Big 10 play with a couple of close (i.e. two-point) losses. Since then, they've lost five times by double digits while producing three narrow victories. Penn State is long overdue for a conference win and should get it here. Grab the points. Play on PENN STATE

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This is an 8* play on DETROIT

This will be the Pistons first game since blowing a 25-point lead to the Clippers over the weekend. Playing at home, they should come out motivated. It's a tough opponent they're hosting as Denver has won six straight. They're 37-15 SU and tied with Golden State for the best record in the Western Conference. But the Nuggets may very well be road weary as this will be the fourth time playing away from home in the last seven games with two more away dates to come this week. They barely escaped Minnesota with a one-point win on Saturday. The fact that they've been so successful in spite of so many injuries is what's particularly shocking.  Two starters are still out for tonight. Detroit badly needs a win to stay in the playoff hunt as they are two games back of the 8th spot right now. Denver is just 14-11 SU on the road (23-4 SU at home) and has been outscored in those games. Play on DETROIT

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