This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on Rutgers.

While I do think the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for the home side to at the very least sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what I deem to be a healthy amount of points afforded to it in this matchup. On paper, these two teams are not close at all, Rutgers is 10-15 overall and just 2-10 in Big Ten action, while Purdue is 15-9 overall and 7-4 in league play. I simply feel that this is a great spot for the home side and think Purdue, which had won five straight befor stumbling last time out, will come in a bit flat here, the exact factor that RU (and us!), can take advantage of. Rutgers fell 79-60 to No. 20 Ohio State on Sunday night, not able to keep pace down the stretch; a bright spot was the 15 turnovers that the Scarlet Knights forced though. This sets up as classic letdown spot in my opinion for the Boilermakers, their five game win skein was snapped in a 62-58 setback at Minnesota on Saturday, Purdue’s sloppy play saw it finish with 23 turnovers. Also note that Purdue is a poor 6-8 ATS in its last 14 vs. teams with losing records, while Rutgers is already 9-7 ATS when playing the role of underdog this season. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends all do all indeed point to the SCARLET KNIGHTS as the savvy move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ART OF WAR on Florida.

For a number of different reasons I think that Florida will pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. This is a revenge game for the Gators after falling 72-71 to the Running Rebels in Oxford back on January 24th. Florida has lost two straight, but was very competitive against Kentucky on Saturday night and think that play gets carried over here. Ole Miss also took both games for bettors ATS in last year’s season series with the Gators and suffice it to say, I don’t see it happening for a fourth straight time. Desperation is a factor in which the oddsmakers have a hard time properly quantifying into a line and that’s the case here, I think the home side will clearly be the “hungrier” team today and expect it to play with the same intensity and fire which took Kentucky down to the final minutes. And from a trend based stand point, this play is about as strong as you could possibly ask for as Mississippi is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven off a win vs. a conference rival, while Florida is 5-3 ATS in its last eight in revenging a road loss vs. an opponent. In my opinion, all signs and factors do indeed point to the GATORS as the sharp move in this matchup.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BIG TEN GAME OF THE YEAR on Ohio State.

For a number of different reasons I expect the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Penn State has lost seven straight Big Ten road games, but it’s victory at then-No. 24 Ohio State last season is its only win in its last 18 road contests against Top 25 opponents. The Buckeyes haven’t forgotten that “brain fart,” and despite being without the services of the nation’s top 3-point shooter in Marc Loving, who is serving the second game of an indefinite suspension, I think all of the conditions are right for a blowout. Besides, the Buckeyes’ best overall player in D’ Angelo Russell is on fire right now, he had 23 points, 11 assists and 11 boards in 35 minutes of action in a 79-60 win at Rutgers on Sunday. Not surprisingly, Russell is a serious contendor for the Big Ten Player of the Year award. Ohio State comes in with plenty of momentum as well, recent performance always plays a part in my handicapping process and the Buckeyes are “hot” overall in having won three of their last four SU. From a situational/motivational stand point, they simply don’t get much stronger than this, not only did OSU lose to the Nittany Lions at home, but it also lost at Penn State, dropping both games last year. Penn State’s DJ Newbill would total 48 points in those two games and is one of the league’s best players, but he’s been stumbling of late, he was held to just 11 points and matched a season worst with six turnovers in his team’s 56-43 win over Nebraska on Saturday. The Nittany Lions have been surprisingly competitve this year I think, there’s some room to read between the lines, despite averaging just 59.0 points and shooting only 40.1 percent, Penn State has lost its last five on the road by an average of just 4.2 points. Suffice it to say, I think its offensive inefficiencies finally come come back to bite it today. As stated many times already, I think this is a great situational selection, play on OHIO STATE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION on Memphis.

I played on Memphis vs. Temple on Saturday, it was an unfortunate setback as the Tigers had the game in hand for almost the entire affair, only to let it slip away in the final moments. Suffice it to say, I think a determined Memphis side will find a way to get the job done tonight and look for it to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. The Tigers are 14-9 overall and 6-4 in The American. The Pirates are just 10-13 overall and only 3-7 in league play. Memphis will be extra hungry after falling 61-60 to the Owls, but note that it’s won 12 of its last 18 overall. Conversely, I think this sets up as a letdown spot for the Pirates, they’ve won two of their last three with home victories over Cincinnati and UCF. I have a hard time seeing ECU matching up with Memphis on the glass, the Tigers are in the top-two in The American in rebound margin, also in blocked shots and in steals. Also note that Memphis has moved over 200 spots in the NCAA rankings for assists per game over the past 18 contests. And from a trend based stand point, this play is extremely strong in my opinion, as note that Memphis is 4-1 ATS this season vs. teams with losing records and 3-2 ATS after scoring 60 points or less. Also note that ECU has struggled in this spot all year, a poor 4-5 ATS vs. good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less per contest and just 2-6 ATS after allowing 60 points or less in its previous contest. After taking all of the above factors into consideration, all signs do indeed point to the TIGERS as the savvy move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION Central Michigan.

For a number of different reasons I believe CMU will find a way to get the job done and expect it to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Revenge is a powerful motivating factor that handicappers often look to take advantage of, but it can also be extremely over-rated, and that’s the case here I believe; note that the Chips already handed the Bobcats a 74-69 loss on January 31st. Ohio’s inability to guard the perimeter is its biggest weakness and one which CMU’s trey-happy offense is once again eager to take advantage of. One player to keep your eyes on is the Chippewas’ John Simons who had four 3-pointers vs. the Bobcats last time out. Note that in Ohio’s 71-67 win at home over CMU last year, the ‘Cats had to overcome a 48-30 deficit and suffice it to say, this year’s version of the Bobcats is not built for comebacks. Also note that Ohio has been well below the league average in getting to the free throw line this year. And from a trend based stand point, this play is about as strong as you could possibly ask for as CMU is already 6-4 ATS this year when playing the role of favorite, while Ohio is a poor 5-7 ATS as the underdog. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to CENTRAL MICHIGAN as the savvy move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* COAST-TO-COAST DESTRUCTION on the Memphis Grizzlies.

For a number of different reasons I expect the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. What more can be said about Atlanta right now that hasn’t literally been said a million times by every NBA analyst in America, after a 19-game win streak ended in New Orleans, the team has bounced back with two straight victories, including a 124-116 home win over Golden State on Friday. But now the team travels across the country to face the West’s second best team and in my opinion, this definitely sets up as a classic letdown spot for the visitors (note that the Hawks were outrebounded 51-38 in the win over the Warriors). This is also a revenge game for the Grizzlies after they fell 96-86 in Atlanta back on January 7th; note though that the Grizzlies were playing the tail end of a 4-7 stretch and did not have the services of Zach Randolph at the time. Memphis has won 12 of its 14 games since that setback. The home side will also be particuarly motivated after falling 90-89 at West-worst Minnesota on Friday. And a little home cooking is just what the doctor ordered as the Grizzlies are 8-1 vs. the East at home this year. A great situational play in my opinion, play on MEMPHIS.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* WEST-COAST EXPRESS on the LA Clippers.

While I obviously feel that the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the visitors to at the very least, sneak in through the back door down the stretch. I think the Clippers will be the “hungrier” side today, they’ve lost three straight and one more setback would represent the teams longest slide this season. LA returns to OKC for the first time since the Playoffs in which the team lost Game and 5 on some controversional calls, and then eventually the series in front of the home town crowd in Game 6: “That game is still on my mind," Clippers’ forward Blake Griffin said last night. "It's the one game I've probably watched the most in the year's time. I couldn't tell you how many times I watched that over the summer." While LA did beat the Thunder 93-90 on October 30th, it would fail to cover the spread in that one, and the “revenge” could not have felt all that great with Oklahoma City star Kevin Durant sitting out due to injury. Durant returned in his team’s 116-113 loss to New Orleans on Friday, but note that home side will be without the services of backup center Kendrick Perkins, who was suspended for one game by the NBA on Saturday for head butting the Pelicans’ Tyreke Evans. "Guys need to step up, we need to find a way and we need to be better," Griffin continued. "You can't get too low, but our sense of urgency needs to go sky high right now." Note that LA is 5-4 ATS this year after playing three consecutive road games, while OKC is just 12-17 ATS vs. good offensive teams which average 99 plus points per contest. This one is coming right down to the wire in my opinion, grab the points with the CLIPPERS.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* ASSASSIN on Southern Illinois.

While I do believe the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the home side to at the very least sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what I feel to be a healthy amount of points afforded to it in this one. For the most part, I’m basing this selection on strong trend based reasons. I played the Redbirds as my Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Tuesday, but I think the team comes up short here, it’s a natural letdown spot for Illinois State after winning three-straight. Conversely, there’s no question in my mind that the 9-15 Salukis will be the “hungrier” team today, they’re just 2-9 in the MVC, most recently coming off a setback vs. Drake. But as mentioned off the top, this play is primarily based on strong trend based reasons, as note that the Redbirds are just 1-4 ATS vs. teams with losing records this year, while Southern Illinois is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 vs. good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less per contest. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to the SALUKIS as the savvy move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on Memphis.

For a number of different reasons I expect the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Memphis is 14-8 overall and 6-3 in The American. Temple is 16-7 overall and 7-3 in league play. The Tigers come in on quite a roll, they’ve won 12 of their last 17, with losses coming against Oklahoma State, Tulane, SMU, Tulsa and Gonzaga. The Owls also come in with momentum after winning four straight; note prior to the win skein Temple had dropped three straight with losses to Tulsa, SMU and Cincinnati. Both teams are obviously pretty evenly matched according to the oddsmakers, each ranks in the top half of the AAC in several defensive statistical categories. I simply can’t understate how important I think the home court advantage will be today though, since 2004 the Tigers have won 188 games at FedExForum, the most home wins in the country over that span of time; note that Memphis owns a 188-24 overall record vs. opponents at home. And note, those numbers get even more impressive when looking at conference foes since 2005, an incredible 86-6 record at FedExForum vs. conference opponents. Note that Temple is 6-8 ATS vs. teams with winning records this season, while Memphis is 8-4 ATS when playing the role of favorite and 7-4 ATS in all true home games this year. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the TIGERS as the sharp move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION on Xavier.

For a number of different reasons I think the home side will pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Note that PC has posted an 0-3 mark against Xavier in Cincinnati and the Musketeers will be playing with revenge today after falling 69-66 in OT on January 22nd. Xavier has a 14-9 overall record, including just 5-6 in Big East play, the Musketeers will be particuarly motivated today after falling 79-72 to Creighton in OT on February 4th. I think this sets up as a classic letdown spot for Providence, it has to be feeling contented after winning three of its last four BIG EAST road games, that includes an extremely satisfying 74-71 victory over the Hoyas in Georgetown on Wednesday. Note that Providence is just 14-16 ATS in its last 30 road games, while Xavier is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 in revenging a road loss vs. an opponent. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to XAVIER as the savvy move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Orlando Magic.

For a number of different reasons I think that the home side will find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. This is a great situational play, Orlando will be playing its first game after firing coach Jacque Vaughn and will be despertately trying to avoid losing 11 straight for the second time in three seasons. The Magic will be clearly motivated tonight and a date vs. the inept Lakers who have lost eight straight on the road is just what the doctor ordered in my opinion to turn things around. This is a great spot bet as Orlando has looked pretty decent of late for the most part, most recently coming off a competitive 110-103 setback to the Spurs on Wednesday. This is also a revenge game for the Magic after falling 101-84 to the Lakers back on January 9th; note that since that win LA has dropped 11 of 12, most recetly a disheartening 113-105 OT loss at Milwaukee on Wednesday. And note that LA is just 7-9 ATS vs. teams with losing records this season, while Orlando is 22-17 ATS in revenging a loss vs. an opponent. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to ORLANDO as the savvy move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION on Niagara.

While I obviously feel that the outright win isn’t out of the question in this one, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. The Purple Eagles are coming off a dramatic, double OT win over Quinnipiac, snapping a nine-game slide, and suffice it to say I think this team rides that wave of emotion over into this one. This is also a revenge game after Marist edged NU 65-61 on January 30th. I think this sets up as a letdown spot for the Red Foxes as well, after starting the year 1-18, the team has won three straight; this is a classic spot that we can take advantage of. We have a ton of great motivational factors working in our favor, and we also have strong trends backing us up, as note that Niagara is 14-9 ATS in its last 23 vs. poor offensive teams which average 64 points or less, while Marist is just 2-4 ATS in true home games this season and a poor 4-6 ATS vs. teams with losing records. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to NIAGARA as the savvy move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* WEST-COAST EXPRESS on the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Whether Thunder star Kevin Durant plays or not, I think that there are enough motivational and situational factors working in favor of the visitors today and expect them to at the very least sneak in through the back door down the stretch. This sets up as a natuarl let down spot for Anthony Davis and the Pelicans after they beat the Hawks 115-110 on Monday, breaking Atlanta’s winning streak at 19 straight. If you watched that game, you may have thought that New Orleans had won Game 7 of the NBA Finals after the win. While it was a solid victory, it was a bit dramatic in my opinion and suffice it to say, after that emotional and clearly satisfying REGULAR SEASON win, in my opinion all signs do indeed point to a letdown here for the home side. Not only does this set up as a letdown spot, but it’s also a double revenge scenario for OKC, most recently a 101-99 setback at home on December 21st to the Pelicans, a game in which Durant sat out due to injury as well. The Thunder can still win and play without Durant, Russell Westbrook and company will also be highly motivated to end a four-game road losing streak; however, take note that the visitors do come in with some momentum after beating Orlando 104-97 on Monday, Westbrook posted his second triple-double of the year with 25 points, 14 assists and 11 boards. A great spot bet, two classic “spots” are working against the home side, I think the THUNDER can take advantage and take this one down to the wire.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Washington Wizards.

I think this is a great situational play and while I obviously feel that the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the “hungry” Wizards to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Atlanta finally fell in a 115-110 loss to New Orleans on Tuesday and I believe this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the home side. It’s hard not to imagine the Hawks having a mental lapse today after winning 19 straight, equaling the fifth-longest single-season winning streak in league history; note that the team would go 9-0 on the road during the epic win skein. Now also throw in the “look ahead” factor with West leading Golden State coming to town on Friday, then this play gets even stronger. And then now also throw in the fact that the Wizards play with “double revenge” from this season alone, including an embarrassing 120-89 rout on January 11th. And finally, Washington will clearly be focused on the task at hand, it’s dropped three straight overall coming into this one, the last two both coming by just four points. The Hawks run was impressive, but I’m not even close to “crowning their asses” yet, the situational factors are overwhelming and they all point to the WIZARDS as the savvy move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* on Connecticut.

For a number of different reasons (mainly strong trend based ones), I expect the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. This is the first meeting between the schools since 1978 as East Carolina (9-12, 2-6 American) shifted conferences this season. The Huskies (11-9, 4-4 American) are 7-3 SU in home games this year and I think will present major matchup issues for the Pirates today. The home side will be especially motivated after falling 70-68 to Houston on the road, a game in which senior captain Ryan Boatright scored a career-high 31 points in the losing effort. It was tough one to swallow as the Huskies would in fact win the rebound battle 51-35. Conversely, I think this sets up as a letdown spot for the visitors after they broke a three-game slide with a 50-46 win over Cincinnati over the weekend, rallying from a nine-point second half deficit to secure the game. Note that it was just ECU’s second conference win as it’s averaging just 56.1 points in league play thus far. Note that East Carolina is just 1-6 ATS in true road games this year, while UConn is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 off a loss vs. a conference rival. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the HUSKIES as the sharp wager in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* REVENGE ROUT on Fordham.

For a number of different reasons (mainly strong trend based ones), I look for the home side to at the very least keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. While the Minutemen are 3-1 in A-10 play this year, UMass is just 3-5 on the road overall. Note that four of the last five between these school’s have been decided by four points or less. This is also a double revenge spot for the home side after losing both games to UMass last season. But as mentioned off the top, for the most part I am basing this selection on strong trend based reasons, as note that Massachusetts is already a poor 1-2 ATS this year after allowing 60 points or less and just 12-14 ATS in its last 26 off a win vs. a conference rival. And note that Fordham is 5-1 ATS in its last six as a home dog in the 3.5 to 7 points range and 16-12 ATS in its last 28 after three or more consecutive SU losses. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to FORDHAM as the savvy move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* SUPER-BLOWOUT on South Florida.

For a number of different reasons I think that the home side can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe and expect it to at the very least sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what I deem to be a healthy amount of points afforded to it in this one. South Florida has gotten progressively better as the season has worn on and will be especially motivated here after coming off a near upset of conference-leader Tulsa on Saturday, eventually succumbing 78-71 in OT on Saturday. Previous to that USF would trail by just four points midway in its 63-52 loss to SMU which is currently ranked No. 23 in the nation, while in the game prior to that the Bulls lost 66-53 at defending national champion UConn after cutting the deficit to two points midway through the second half. One player to keep your eyes on today is the Bulls Corey Allen Jr., who had 30 points for the second time this year in the team’s last setback. It’s been close but no cigar for the Bulls, there’s no question in my mind they’ll be the “hungrier” team today. Conversely, I think this sets up as a bit of a letdown spot for Temple which is coming off a 55-37 win over Tulane on Saturday, the team’s third consecutive victory. And note that this sets up as a revenge game for the home side after it fell 73-48 on January 22nd in Philadelphia. Note that Temple is just 4-6 ATS this year after allowing 60 points or less, while USF is 5-2 ATS off a loss vs. a conference rival this season and already 1-0 ATS in revenging a road loss vs. an opponent. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to SOUTH FLORIDA as the savvy move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* MISSOURI VALLEY GAME OF THE YEAR on Illinois State. 

For a number of different reasons I expect the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Evansville leads the MVC in scoring offense and field goal percentage, but I think will have its hands full today with the league’s leader in rebounding margin and steals. The Redbirds come in with plenty of momentum after winning two straight and have in fact prevailed in four of their last five. Evansville on the other hand is coming in off its first loss in three games and I think this sets up as another classic letdown spot for it. If history is any precedence, then Illinois State has to be loving its chances as it’s 18-3 vs. the Purple Aces at Redbird Arena. Both teams enter this game tied for fourth in the MVC and I simply can’t understate how important I believe home court advantage will be in this matchup; note that both of last season’s Illinois State vs. Evansville games ended in OT, with the home team prevailing on both occasions. Note that Evansville is just 2-3 ATS in its last five as a road dog in the 6.5 to 9 points range, while Illinois State is 20-18 ATS in its last 38 in front of the home town crowd. In my opinion, a great situational play on ILLINOIS STATE.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Washington Wizards.

For a number of different reasons I expect the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. The Wizards are on the verge of their longest skid of the year in front of the home town crowd after a 21-point rally came up short in a 120-116 OT setback to the Raptors on Saturday. Whether John Wall plays or not matters not in my opinion, Washington is loaded and will certainly be the “hungrier” team here in my opinion. And to say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement I think as the Hornets have won three in a row over the Wizards, including three of the past four in the Nation’s capital. But with a game between the teams in Charlotte on Thursday, I think it just lends weight to the home side playing its heart out tonight. And note that Charlotte is just 3-5 ATS vs. division opponents this year, while Washington is 25-22 ATS in its last 47 after allowing 105 points or more. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the WIZARDS as the savvy move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* ATS BLOWOUT on Siena.

For a number of different reasons (mainly strong trend based ones), I look for the home side to at the very least keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. This certainly won’t be easy, Rider is 14-8 overall and 8-3 in MAAC play and has been getting the job done behind a smothering defense. However, after winning seven straight on the road, I think the Broncos finally have a letdown here. Siena is just 8-12 and 5-6 in the MAAC and will be especially “hungry” here after falling 87-79 at Manhatten on Friday; in all five Saints would score in double figures. This is also a revenge game for the home side after falling 80-68 to Rider on December 7th. Siena was actually picked to finish second in the MAAC this year, so performance to date is a definite disappointment. Note thought that Rider is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven off a win vs. a conference rival, while Siena is a perfect 3-0 ATS this year after allowing 80 points or more. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to SIENA as the savvy move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on Arkansas State.

While the outright win is almost assuredly out of the question, I do believe the visitors can catch the home side a bit complacent today and look for them to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what I feel to be a very generous amount of points afforded to them in this one. The Red Wolves held a 39-28 advantage on the board vs. UALR on Thursday, but would wind up falling 75-65. Arkansas State plays with revenge here though after falling 60-54 to the Panthers at the Convocation Center on January 19th, Georgia State’s fourth-straight in the series. But as mentioned off the top, I think this sets up as a natural letdown spot for the home side after winning five of its last six, most recently picking up a satisfying 88-74 road win at UT Arlington on Thursday. A-State can perform on the road though, it’s 6-5 so far away from friendly confines, most recently picking up a win at Troy last Saturday, and not surpisingly has gone 7-4 ATS. Note that Arkansas State is also 2-1 ATS this year in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent. And note that Georgia State is 2-4 ATS this year when playing with one or less days rest and 0-6 ATS after scoring 80 points or more. After taking all of the above factors into consideration, I do indeed feel this is a few too many points to be giving up, grab as many as you can with ARKANSAS STATE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* ASSASSIN on Pittsburgh. 

While I do in fact believe the outright win isn’t out of the question here, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the home side will take the Irish down to the wire and at the very least, sneak in through the back door with what I deem to be a healthy amount of points afforded to it in this one. There’s no question that Notre Dame is playing at a very high level right now, but after five straight wins, I think the team has a bit of a mental letdown here today, the exact opportunity that the Panthers (and us!), can take advantage of. It’s not hard to imagine the Fighting Irish coming in a bit complacent after rallying from a 10-point deficit to beat No. 4 Duke 77-73 on Wednesday. Also note, while ND has won its first four conference road games for the first time in school history, only one has been decided by more than three points. Certainly Pittsburgh won’t be intimidated today, the last time these teams met the Panthers would score the 85-81 OT win on March 1st. Pittsburgh has lost three in a row and is coming off a 70-67 OT loss at Virginia Tech, but as I always like to say: “desperation breeds motivation.” I played UCLA on Tuesday, a 7-point dog which would go on to score the 10-point outright upset over Utah and I think that a similar such performance is in the cards today. Note that Notre Dame is just 4-5 ATS this year vs. good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less per contest, while Pittsburgh is 8-4 ATS this season vs. schools with winning records. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the PANTHERS as the savvy move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* COAST-TO-COAST EXPRESS on the Dallas Mavericks.

For a number of different reasons I expect the visiting side to find a way to get the job done and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. As I always say: “desperation breeds motivation,” and in my opinion, Dallas will clearly be the “hungrier” team tonight as it looks to snap out of a season-worst losing streak. Here’s a perfect opponent to take your frustrations out on as the Heat will be without stars Dwyane Wade and Luol Deng. Miami has come apart at the seams of late, it most recently allowed the Bucks to shoot 54.9 percent while also sending them to the line 30 times in a 109-102 setback on Tuesday. From a situational stand point, they don’t get much better than this, Dallas is clearly under-achieving and it will be all hands on deck today to break the slide; conversely, Miami is now playing its first game without star Wade, making this a prime spot for a letdown. Now also throw in the fact that the Mavs play with revenge after falling to the Heat 105-96 on November 9th (a seventh straight victory in the series for Miami), and this play becomes extremely strong motivationally as well. No need to overanalyze this one in my opinion, all signs point to DALLAS as the sharp move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* PAC-12 ASSASSIN on UCLA. 

While I do believe the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for the home side to keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Utah is one of the best teams in the country and already dismantled the Bruins 71-39 on January 4th, making the “revenge factor” a very real scenario in this one. Note though that the Utes have not won in Los Angeles in over 53 years, dropping two road meetings since joining the Pac-12 in 2011/12 by a combined 41 points there. Utah is rolling on both ends of the court, but I think will have its hands full vs. the “hungrier” team, clearly UCLA will be looking to not only atone for the earlier loss to the Utes, but also its 1-2 road swing which ended in back-to-back defeats. Note though that the Bruins are already 1-0 ATS this year after playing three consecutive road games and are 6-4 ATS in all home games. I think the situational conditions favor the home side, play on UCLA.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION on Duquesne.

While I won’t be so bold as to call for an outright upset, I do think this is too many points to be giving up here and look for the visitors to catch the home side a bit complacent and to comfortably sneak in through the back door as the game comes down the stretch. Duquesne plays with revenge after falling 75-58 in Pittsburgh last season. In fact, to call this a “revenge” spot would be a bit of an understatement I think as the Spiders own a near-perfect 16-1 SU record against the Dukes in A-10 games. Also note, UR ended DU’s season last year with a 76-64 win in the first round of the A-10 Championship at the Barclays Center. Richmond has little to fear from its lowly visitors today, it’s 9-2 at home, the perfect combination of situational factors which I believe will lead to a “letdown” tonight. The Dukes are playing a third game in the last seven days, the team has had little time to dwell on losses, another situational factor which I feel benefits us tonight. Note that three of DU’s seven A-10 games have come down to the final possession; and note, despite its 6-12 SU record, Duquesne has been outscored by a total of just 15 points on the year. As primarily a “situational” handicapper, these are exactly the types of games that I am constantly on the search for, grab as many points as you can with DUQUESNE.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* MAC GAME OF THE YEAR on Eastern Michigan.

Both of these teams enter this game struggling, but for a number of different reasons, I look for EMU to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Simply put, I can’t understate how important I believe home court advantage will be in this one. Ohio is 7-10 overall and 2-4 in MAC play, while Eastern Michigan is 12-7 overall and 1-5 in league action. This is almost a do or die scenario for both schools, a victory would help boost momentum for the victors moving forward. EMU is coming off two consecutive losses on the road, one to Bowling Green and ont Central Michigan. But note, the last time it played at home it would get its first MAC win over Northern Illinois. A date vs. the toothless Bobcats is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked, despite owning a better overall MAC record, I think the Eagles present many matchup issues for Ohio. I also believe this also sets up as a natural letdown spot for the visitors after they beat Buffalo 63-61 at home last time out on a final last second dunk. Note that Ohio has really struggled in this spot for bettors all season as well, just 1-3 ATS in true road games and a poor 2-8 ATS vs. teams with winning records. And note that this is in fact a position in which EMU has excelled in by going 5-3 ATS in its last eight as a home favorite in the 3.5 to 6 points range. A great situational play in my opinion, lay the points on EASTERN MICHIGAN.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Minnesota Timberwolves.

I played this line right when it came out, it’s since gone up a bit as of writing, but may settle back down to 16.5, but regardless, I love this pick and think that the lowly Wolves can catch the surprising home side a bit complacent here and expect them to comfortably sneak in through the back door as the game comes down the stretch. What more can be said about the Atlanta Hawks right now that hasn’t literally been said by every NBA analyst across North American a million times by now, obviously the team is playing at an extremely high level on both ends of the court. I won’t try to convince you that the Wolves are a good team which has just been unlucky this season, injuries and other factors have Minnesota in the cellar for a reason, it’s a club which is in transition this season. However, what I would point out is that after covering 13 straight games and with contests vs. Minnesota today and Brooklyn (just 18-25) on Wednesday, there’s no question in my mind that this short stretch vs. the league’s worst teams definitely sets up as a classic “letdown” spot for the home side. Conversely, the Wolves have lost three straight (both SU and ATS) and will be “hungry” to not get blown out here with the knowledge that the eyes of the basketball World are all on the city of Atlanta right now. I think this is a few too many points, grab as many as you can with the WOLVES.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BAIL-OUT BLOWOUT on California.

Arizona is ranked No. 7 in the country, it’s 17-2 overall, which includes going 5-1 in league play. California is 11-8 overall, but just 1-5 in Pac-12 action thus far. Desperation breeds motivation though, while I won’t be so bold as to call for an outright upset in this one, for a number of different reasons I think that the Golden Bears will keep this one a lot more competitve than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe and expect them to sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what I feel to be a healthy amount of points afforded to them in this one. These teams split a pair of games last year, Cal would win 60-58 at home as a 6 point underdog, before then falling 87-59 as a 12.5 point underdog in Arizona. California will certainly be the more motivated side, it’s lost five straight and seven of its last eight overall; conversely, I think this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the visitors after three straight league wins. This play is however mainly based on strong trends, note that the Wildcats have in fact struggled in this spot for bettors for a while now, just 2-5 ATS their last seven true road contests. And note, Cal has always “upped” its game vs. Arizona as evidenced by the fact that it’s 3-1-1 ATS in its last five vs. it in front of the home town crowd (also note that the Golden Bears are 11-5 SU their last 16 at home overall). Grab as many points as you can with CALIFORNIA.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* SUPER BLOWOUT on Michigan State.

MSU is coming off a 66-60 win over Penn State on Wednesday, Tom Izzo’s team is 13-6 overall and 4-2 in Big Ten action. Nebraska is coming off a 52-49 win over Minnesota, but is just 11-7 overall, including only 3-3 in league play. The Huskers are going to have their hands full today in my opinion, note that the team ranks near the bottom of almost every single statisical category there is; 251st in points per game, 207th in rebounds per game, 314th in assists per game and 202nd in field goal percentage. Michigan State on the other hand ranks 56th, 28th, 3rd and 30th respectively. These two teams may be in the same conference, but they’re no where even close to being in the same ballpark when it comes to overall talent and execution in these major categories. The Spartans also present a massive matchup problem in the paint for the Huskers; also note that MSU is the best three-point shooting team in the Big Ten. As good as Nebraska’s defensive play has been this year, note that the Huskers are a poor 1-4 SU the last five in this series, while the Spartans are 15-8 SU their last 23 away from friendly confines. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to MICHIGAN STATE as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Oregon.

For a number of different reasons I look for the home side to find a way to get the job done ATS today. As I like to say, “desperation breeds motivation,” there’s no question in my mind which team will be the hungrier today as the Ducks have lost three consecutive games. Both these teams are actually hovering around the bottom of league standings, UCLA won three straight before then regressing in its 66-55 loss at Oregon State last time out. The Bruins are ranked as the No. 6 team in the nation with 41.3 rebounds per game, but the Ducks are right behind at No. 19, averaging 39.8 per contest. Oregon has an advantage in the backcourt I think, the Bruins actually have the highest scoring guards in the conference, but the combination of the Ducks three-guard scheme will give the duo a lot of trouble in my opinion. Also note, UCLA is extremely thin, it uses a seven man rotation, we can expect Oregon to pound the ball down low as to get the Bruins in foul trouble and then UCLA will simply have no one to turn to. And from a trend based stand point, they don’t get much stronger than this, note that UCLA is a brutal 1-8 ATS in its last nine true road games, while Oregon is 20-2 SU its last 22 in front of the home town crowd. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the DUCKS as the sharp move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ATS BLOWOUT on the Chicago Bulls.

Chicago has been struggling of late, but a game vs. the defending and surging NBA champions is just what the doctor ordered to get re-focused in my opinion, while I obviously feel that the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. The Bulls are most recently coming off a 108-94 loss at Cleveland on Monday, the team’s sixth setback in its last eight games. There’s no time like the present to turn things around though, Chicago next visits Dallas, Miami and then NBA-best Golden State: “We've got to decide when enough is enough," Bulls’ coach Tom Thibodeau assessed last night. "We're going to look at everything, come in, look at the film, get to work; we've got to get better. It's that simple. The way we are playing is not acceptable, so we've got to change it." Clearly the issue with the Bulls has been their play on the defensive end of the court, normally the strength of the team, Chicago has given up more than 100 points in five consecutive games, something it hasn’t done since 2010: “It's just that no matter who is on the floor or who is out or who is coming back we just have to compete," star guard Derrick Rose said. "My biggest thing is competing and making sure we let the opponent know we've come to play. We're midway through the season; it's no excuses." San Antonio endured a tough stretch as well but comes in red hot, it’s won four straight and eight of ten, most recently thumping Denver 109-99 on Tuesday. Two teams moving in opposite directions, but as I always like to say: “desperation breeds motivation.” I think we’ll see a highly concerted effort from the home side in this one, this game is basically a must win with three tough road contests in a row on the horizon. Chicago may be a bit banged up, but from a trend based stand point, this play is about as strong as you could possibly ask for, note that the Spurs are just 3-5 ATS this year after three or more consecutive SU wins and only 7-10 ATS after scoring 105 points or more. And note that the Bulls are 6-3 ATS in their last nine as a home dog in the 3.5 to 6 points range. As I said off the top, I’ll hardly be surprised if CHICAGO wins this one outright.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on Southern Miss.

While I won’t be so bold as to call for an outright upset here, I do think that Southern Miss will keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The last time these teams met, the Golden Eagles would prevail 84-62 on January 16th, 2014; in fact, Southern Miss has won the last five in a  row. However, take note that the Eagles enter tonight’s game with just a 5-11 overall record, including 0-5 in Conference USA play, the Black and Gold will now be looking to snap an overall eight-game losing streak after falling to UAB, 63-56 last time out. Rice is just 5-11 overall and 2-3 in league play, the Owls are primed for a letdown here in my opinion after snapping a three-game losing streak in their 73-68 OT win over Charlotte on Saturday. These teams are pretty evenly matched in my opinion, and from a trend based stand point, this play is about as strong as you could possibly ask for, note that Southern Miss is already 3-2 ATS this year after scoring 60 points or less and 2-1 ATS vs. poor offensive teams which score 64 points or less per contest. And note that Rice is just 1-4 ATS in its last five when playing the role of favorite. A few too many points here, play on SOUTHERN MISS.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* ASSASSIN on Xavier.

For a number of different reasons I look for Xavier to at the very least keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the handful of points it’s been afforded. This is a big game for the Musketeers as they look to start off on the “right foot,” playing three of their next four on the road, including trips to Georgetown and Seton Hall. So far XU has been “Jekyll and Hyde” this season, it’s 10-0 at home and just 1-4 in true road games. Most recently Xavier is coming off a fourth straight road loss at then No. 5 Villanova. A game vs. Providence is just what the doctor ordered to get re-focused, the Friars are 14-5 overall and 4-2 in Big East play. Note though that Providence is just 1-2 ATS this year off a win vs. a conference rival, while Xavier is already 7-5 ATS vs. teams with winning records this season. Xavier has the personnel to matchup with Providence down low and a clear advantage in the motivation department. Grab as many points as you can with the MUSKETEERS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Houston Rockets.

Some times I believe it’s necessary to completely dissect a contest, looking at situational, motivational and strong trend based factors, and in others I feel that a more “common sense” approach is the best way to handicap a game. That’s the case here. These are a couple of the league’s best and hottest teams going head to head, but so far Golden State has gotten the better of Houston this season, it’s taken all three games both SU and ATS. “Revenge” is a powerful motivating factor and one which simply can’t be overlooked today in my opinion, while I won’t be so bold as to call for an outright upset, I do definitely feel that this is too many points to be giving up and look for the visitors to at the very least keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Also note that this is a spot the Rockets have performed admirably in for bettors already this season, 12-8 ATS after scoring 105 points or more and 3-1 ATS after playing three consecutive home games. And note, this is in fact a position in which the Warriors have struggled in going just 9-10 ATS in their last 19 after allowing 85 points or less. Grab as many points as you can with HOUSTON.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Indiana Pacers.

For a number of different reasons I expect the visitors to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Anyone that’s followed me for any length of time knows that I am primarily a situational handicapper. That said, I don’t conform to any one particular handicapping methodology and believe that being flexible with one’s approach is the best way to take advantage of longterm profits. One angle that I do always like to take advantage of is lopsided numbers or trends. Atlanta is playing unbelievably this season, it’s 18-2 SU in its last 20 and an amazing 17-3 ATS, covering the spread in its last 11 straight. Indiana had more questions than answers coming into this season and wasn’t expected to do that well, it’s certainly been struggling of late, not only has it lost five straight SU, it’s also lost six straight ATS. While I will admit that the “Law of averages” is flawed in many ways, I have always believed that lop-sided numbers and trends have a way of naturally “correcting” themselves over the short, mid and long term. These two massively lop-sided trends collide on Wednesday night, in my opinion clearly putting the value on the Pacers in this one. Now throw in the fact that the visitors play with double revenge from two losses this season, and this play becomes even stronger. But finally, take note that this is a spot that Indiana has actually performed very well in for bettors as it’s 14-9 ATS on the road this year and 13-6 ATS after a non-conference game. And note that this is a position in which the Hawks have actually struggled in, they’re a poor 3-4 ATS this season after allowing 85 points or less (coming off a 93-82 win over the Pistons on Monday). While I won’t be so bold as to call for an outright win, I do think that the writing is on the wall and a competitive game is in the cards, grab as many points as you can with the PACERS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on North Carolina.

North Carolina looked shaky in a 68-53 home win over Virginia Tech on Sunday and because of that, I believe it will come into tonight’s game extremely focused and look for it to pull away down the stretch for a comfortable ATS cover. The Tar Heels are 14-4 overall, including 4-1 in league play and have won three in a row and eight of nine, but committed an uncharacteristic 17 turnovers vs. the Hokies: “I don't think we're a stupid team, but every team plays stupid at times," UNC Coach Roy Williams said afterwards. "We're going to try to get better." This is also a revenge game for the visitors who would commit 17 turnovers that Wake Forest turned into 19 points in a 73-67 road defeat last January 5th. It wasn’t all doom and gloom for the Tar Heels though, they shot 44.1 percent and held Virginia Tech to 35.8 while outrebounding it 49-22, including 16-4 on the offensive glass. The Deacons have averaged 76 points over their last five games, but note that they rank last in the ACC in scoring defense (69.1 PPG) and defensive field-goal percentage (43.7). Wake Forest comes in deflated here after a heart-breaking 86-83 OT loss to Syracuse on Tuesday. I think all of the situational conditions are in place for a rout, play on NORTH CAROLINA.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on South Carolina.

For a number of different reasons I expect the home side to pull away down the stretch for a comfortable ATS cover in this one. USC starts a two-game SEC homestand with Tennessee first and then Columbia. Note that the Gamecocks are 7-2 at home this year, which includes a 1-1 mark in league play. South Carolina will be particularly motivated here after the way it fell last time out, it would battle back from a 10-point halftime deficit to tie the contest midway through the second half, but would ultimately end up falling 71-68 at Auburn on Saturday, dropping the Gamecocks to just 1-3 in SEC play. It wasn’t all doom and gloom for USC though, as four players would score in double figures, the team hitting 50% overall from the floor. And a date in front of the home town crowd is just what the doctor ordered in my opinion as South Carolina is averaging 75.9 PPG in home contests this year, holding a 16.1 scoring margin over its opponents in those games. The Vols come in with an 11-5 record, including a 3-1 mark in league play; Tennessee has won two straight, including a 59-51 road win at Missouri on Saturday. In my opinion, clearly the Gamecocks are going to be the more motivated/hungry team today. Also note that to say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement I think as South Carolina has lost 14-straight in the series. And from a scheduling stand-point, there’s no question that South Carolina needs to take advantage today as next up it will host top-ranked Kentucky on Saturday. In my opinion, this line is a little low, play on the GAMECOCKS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ATS BLOWOUT on Florida State.

For a number of different reasons (mainly strong trend based ones), I look for FSU to at the very least, keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. If history is any precedence, then the Seminoles have to be loving their chances here as they’ve won five of their last six vs. the Tigers. In fact FSU has won two consecutive games at Clemson in addition to two wins at home in Tallahassee and one win in the 2013 ACC Tournament over the Tigers. The Seminoles will be extra motivated today as well though as they’ve yet to win a true road game this year. The Tigers have shown promise this year, but note that this is a position in which they’ve really struggled in for bettors as they’re just 15-17 ATS in their last 32 home games and a poor 7-9 ATS in their last 16 off a win vs. a conference rival. And note that FSU has been money in the bank in this spot, a great 3-1 ATS in its last four after three or more consecutive SU losses. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to FLORIDA STATE as the savvy move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Detroit Pistons.

For a number of different reasons I think that the surprising Detroit Pistons will keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door vs. the surprising Atlanta Hawks. The Pistons have won seven straight on the road and have been a completely different team since releasing Josh Smith. I think Atlanta finally has a letdown here, it’s coming off back to back victories in Chicago and Toronto, Saturday’s 107-99 victory over the Bulls matched the franchise’s second-longest win streak. While obviously not always, success does breed complacency, there’s no question in my mind which will be the “hungrier” team today, the Pistons play with “double revenge” from this season alone, the latest was a 106-103 setback in Detroit on January 9th. After a 5-23 start, Detroit has gone 4-1 its last five, which is part of an 11-2 stretch that now has it just one game out of the final playoff spot in the East. Most recently the Pistons destroyed Philadelphia 107-89 on Saturday. Note that during their win streak on the road, the Pistons have won by an average of 11.6 points per game with big time wins in San Antonio, Dallas and Toronto. Simply put, Detroit is a team that competes away from friendly confines. From a trend based stand point, this play is about as strong as you could possibly ask for, note that the Pistons are 5-1 ATS as a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points and 5-1 ATS after a win by 10 points or more. And note that Atlanta is just 11-15 ATS in its last 26 as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. I think the writing is on the wall and an extremely competitive battle is in the cards, while I do think the outright win isn’t out of the question here, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can on DETROIT.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* COAST-TO-COAST EXPRESS on the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The Thunder are coming off a resounding 127-115 victory over Western Conference leading Golden State on Friday and I think will carry that momentum over here. Oklahoma City will also be looking to avoid a fifth straigh road loss in this one as well as trying to move back to the .500 mark. This is also a revenge game for OKC after falling 103-102 in Orlando back on February 7th, a win which snapped a five-game losing streak in the series for the Magic. A date vs. defensively challenged Orlando is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked offensively as it’s is giving up 111.0 PPG on 51.2 percent shooting over its last three. The Magic are coming off a 106-96 loss to Memphis on Friday and is just 7-11 ATS in front of the home town crowd this year. I think a very focused and hungry OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER teams leaves Orlando with a decisive victory on Sunday night.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* PLATINUM CLUB ROUT on Arizona State.

This is a great situational play in my opinion as Arizona State will be extremely focused on the task at hand, it’s in the middle of a stretch where it has just two home games in 31 days, putting added emphasis onto tonight’s contest for sure. And a little home cooking is just what the doctor ordered as well as the Sun Devils are 16-2 in their past 18 in front of the home town crowd. ASU will also be extra motivated here after falling 76-59 to Utah on Thursday. These teams split a pair of games last year, but note that ASU would hold CU to 3 of 20 from the three-point stripe in those contests. From a trend based stand point, this play is about as strong as you could possibly ask for, note that Colorado is just 1-4 ATS on the road this year, while Arizona State is already 6-4 ATS when playing the role of favorite. All signs point to a comfortable home cover, play on ARIZONA STATE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on Drexel.

While I obviously believe the outright win isn’t out of the question here, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect Drexel to at the very least, sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the handful of points it’s been afforded in this one. This is the Dragons’ oldest rival, the schools actually first faced off against each other in the 1911-12 season. These teams split a pair last year, the Blue Hens won 90-77 in Philadelphia before Drexel then answered with a 69-65 win in Delaware. Delaware may have won two straight, but is a poor 3-13 overall and I think is ripe for a classic letdown today. There’s no question in my mind which team will be “hungrier” today as the Dragons come in off one of their worst offensive performances in recent memory on Thursday, shooting a brutal 24 percent in a 54-35 loss to James Madison. For the most part however though I am basing this selection on strong trend based reasons, note that Drexel is 5-4 ATS in its last nine vs. poor offensive teams which average 64 points or less per contest, while Delaware is just 1-2 ATS in the same position this season and only 10-12 ATS in its last 22 home games. Play on DREXEL.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* ATS SUPER-BLOWOUT on Gonzaga.

Some times a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case I definitely feel that the Bulldogs should be bigger ones as I fully expect the visitors to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. The only question in this game is, will Gonzaga come in focused or look past lowly Loyola Marymount? In my opinion, the answer is that the Bulldogs will indeed be focused on the task at hand and not take anything for granted today. Gonzaga is 17-1 and 6-0 in the WCC. The Bulldogs are coming off a near upset in their last game, holding on for a 78-76 win over Pepperdine on Thursday and I simply don’t see the team wanting to go through a lapse like that again, suffice it to say I expect a concerted effort from start to finish today: “It was a good test for us," said Bulldogs leading scorer Kyle Wiltjer (16.8 points per game) afterwards. "We were a little down we won by so small, but we're going to have a lot of close games." Gonzaga is tied with Notre Dame for the Nation’s top field-goal percentage and will now look to take advantage of a Loyola Marymount team that ranks eighth in the 10-team league in allowing 10.7 offensive rebounds per game. While the Lions did snap a five-game slide with an 80-68 win over Portland on Thursday, note that LMU is just 2-5 ATS at home this season and only 4-7 ATS vs. teams with winning records. And note that Gonzaga is already 4-1 ATS on the road this year and 2-1 ATS when playing with one or less days rest. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to an ATS BLOWOUT for GONZAGA.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ACC ASSASSIN on Florida State.

For a number of different reasons I expect the home side to at the very least keep this one close enough to sneak in through the backdoor down the stretch. The Seminoles are 8-2 overall at home and have won five straight in the Donald L. Tucker Center. Most recently Florida State would kick off its nine-game ACC home schedule with an 86-75 victory over the Hokies on January 6th. But this is a great situational play in my opinion, as FSU will definitely be looking to take full advantage of this spot, this contest is sandwiched around four road games, two on both sides of the Wolfpack. If history is any precedence, then FSU has to be loving its chances today, the last time these teams played at the Donald L. Tucker Center, the Seminoles defeated NC State 71-67 on March 9th, 2013. And from a trend based stand point, they don’t get much stronger than this, note that NC State is just 11-12 ATS in its last 23 true road games, while Florida State is already 4-3 ATS at home. While I obviously feel that the outright win isn’t out of the question in this one, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can on FLORIDA STATE.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BIG TEN GAME OF THE YEAR on Minnesota. 

For a number of different reasons, I expect the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Rutgers makes its first ever appearance in the Barn in a Big Ten Conference matchup, a contest which I feel is of crtical importance for the Gophers who have yet to notch a victory in league play. Minnesota most recently loss 77-75 to Iowa on Tuesday. Amazingly, the Gophers have dropped four of their five games by five points or fewer, including a pair of two-point defeats. I think it’s important to note though that the Gophers would finish with an 11-2 non-conference schedule, including a perfect 9-0 at home. Rutgers is 2-3 in conference play and also comes into this contest off a loss, a 73-65 setback in College Park vs. the Terps and I think will once again have its hands full today vs. a Minnesota team which ranks second nationally in steals per game (11.1) and sixth in assists (17.8), ranking it first and second among Big Ten schools in those departments. And note, from a trend based stand point, they don’t get much better than this as Rutgers is a poor 1-3 ATS in its last four vs. good offensive teams which average 77 plus points per contest, while Minnesota is already a great 4-1 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 points or more this season. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends all clearly point to the GOLDEN GOPHERS as the sharp move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on San Jose State.

For a number of different reasons (mainly strong trend based ones), I believe that the home side will keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. San Jose State will certainly be the “hungrier” team today after back to back losses, including a 78-56 setback at Air Force and 74-40 loss at UNLV. Fresno State comes into this game with an 8-9 overall record, but a 3-1 mark in MW play, most recently beating Utah State and Nevada; I think this sets up as a natural letdown spot for the visitors. Also note that SJSU plays with “revenge” here after falling 69-56 in last year’s MW regular-season finale at The Event Center. But as mentioned off the top, this play is mainly based on strong ATS trends, note that Fresno State is a poor 1-4 ATS on the road this year, while SJSU is a powerful 2-1 ATS this season off a loss vs. a conference rival. While I won’t be so bold as to call for an outright upset here, I do think that SAN JOSE STATE sneaks in through the back door down the stretch.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* SUPER-BLOWOUT on Georgetown.

For a number of different reasons I expect the visitors to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. The Hoyas come into this game at 10-5 and actually have a strength of schedule rated No. 8 in the country. Georgetown would split a pair of games last week, beating Marquette at home 65-59, before then falling 60-57 at Providence in OT on Tuesday. But if history is any precedence, the Hoyas have to be loving their chances here, they’ve won 14 of the last 15 in the series overall including a 71-59 victory on the road last year. However note, Georgetown will be playing with revenge after the Blue Demons posted a 60-56 upset in the BIG EAST Tournament. DePaul on the other hand enters Tuesday’s game with a 9-8 overall record and a 3-1 mark in the BIG EAST after an 81-64 setback at Villanova on Saturday. This play however is mainly based on strong trend based reasons as note that Georgetown is 2-0 ATS this year after scoring 60 points or less and 11-5 ATS in the same position over the last two. And note that DePaul is interestingly just 1-5 ATS this year after allowing 80 points or more. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the OVER as the sharp move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on Tennessee.

While I obviously believe the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I think the home side comes to play today. The Vols may be sputtering offensively of late, but as I always like to say, desperation breeds motivation and a game vs. the hard-nosed Razorbacks is just the type of fuel that I think will help light a fire for Tennessee. Arkansas hasn’t opened 3-0 in the SEC in over 17 years and suffice it to say, I don’t think it’s going to happen here. There’s some room to read between the lines in the Razorbaks 82-70 win over Vanderbilt on Saturday, the team was fortunate to create 22 turnovers which led to 31 points and they’d actually allow the Commodores to shoot 52.0 percent. But as mentioned off the top, Tennessee will be eager to atone for some lacklustre play of late, after a 61-47 win at Mississippi State on Wednesday, the team would shoot just 31.1 percent in Saturday’s listless 56-38 loss to Alabama: “If you feel sorry for yourself or hang your head in this business people will bury you. They will put you out of business," Vols coach Donnie Tyndall said the embarrassing effort. "With such an inexperienced, youthful team all I can do is continue to tell them, show them in the film room and we have to go to the practice floor to get better. ... No knock on Alabama because I think they are a safe tournament team, but Arkansas is even more talented. So we better be ready." But if history is any precedence, then Tennessee has to be loving its chances as it’s won four straight over the Razorbacks in front of the home town crowd. And from a trend based stand point, this play is about as strong as you could possibly ask for, note that Arkansas is 1-6 ATS in its last seven as a road favorite of 3 points or less or pick, while Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games as a home dog of 3 points or less or pick. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to TENNESSEE as the sharp move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOWOUT on Youngstown State.

For a number of different reasons (mainly strong trend based ones), I look for the visitors to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. I bet against Green Bay on Friday and Milwaukee would fall apart down the stretch. The Phoenix are 13-3 overall and 2-0 in Horizon League play. However, I think this sets up as a natural letdown spot vs. the lowly Penguins, who have lost four straight in the series. Youngstown State will certainly be the “hungrier” team, it’s coming off a tough 70-61 home loss to Wright State on January 8th. But as mentioned off the top, for the most part this play is based on strong trends, note that the Penguins are 4-2 ATS in their last six as a road dog of 12.5 points or more, while the Phoenix are a poor 2-3 ATS in their last five when playing with one or less days of rest. In my opinion, this spread is a little high, play on YOUNGSTOWN STATE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* ATS SUPER-BLOWOUT on Creighton.

For a number of different reasons I look for the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Desperation breeds motivation, in my opinion Creighton will surely be the “hungrier” team today, it comes into this contest at 9-7 overall, but 0-3 in BIG EAST play after losing to Providence, Georgetown and DePaul. The Blue Jays though are 7-2 at home this year and I think have a definite “home court” advantage that will turn out to be the difference in the outcome of this one. Conversely, Seton Hall is on top of the World right now, it’s 12-3 on the season and 2-1 in BIG EAST play; note that the Pirates moved into the Top-25 at No. 19 after wins last week vs. nationally-ranked St. John’s and Villanova, before then losing to Xavier on Wednesday. However, if there’s been one glaring weakness for Seton Hall this year, it’s clearly been its play away from friendly confines, a poor 1-3 in true road games thus far. In my opinion, this sets up as a natural “letdown” spot for the visitors. Note that the Pirates are in fact just 4-8 SU their last 12 on the road, while the Blue Jays are 20-5 their last 25 in front of the home town crowd. After taking all of the above factors into consideration, I believe CREIGHTON is indeed the savvy move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Louisville.

For a number of different reasons I think that visitors will at the very least keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the handful of points they’ve been afforded. North Carolina is coming off a disheartening 71-70 loss to the Fighting Irish and I think is primed for another letdown here. There is now so much pressure on the Tar Heels to win this game, that I think these young players will crack under the pressure. If UNC doesn’t win, it’ll be out of the regular season title race as a loss would make it the third consecutive season that it held a losing record through the first three conference games. Louisville is one of the best defending teams in the country and I simply can’t see the struggling Tar Heels contending with that full court pressure for an entire game. UNC has also struggled defensively of late, allowing the Irish to shoot 46 percent from the floor. From a trend based stand point, they simply don’t get much stronger than this either, as note that Louisville is a superb 11-1 SU its last 12 on the road, while UNC is a poor 2-5 ATS in its last seven after giving up 70 points or more. As mentioned off the top, while I believe the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can on LOUISVILLE.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* HORIZON LEAGUE GAME OF THE YEAR on Wisconsin Milwaukee.

While I do feel that the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the home side to keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Milwaukee beat Green Bay both times last year but is just 5-11 this season, including 0-2 in league play. The Phoenix are 12-3 overall, and 1-0 in Horizon league action. In my opinion, there’s no question which team will be “hungrier” today as the Panthers return home after a month away from UWM Panther Arena, in search for their first win since a 73-58 win over Montana back on December 14th. Milwaukee has been shooting the ball better of late though, it connected on 47 percent of its field goal tries in a setback to Detroit on Sunday. This sets up as a natural letdown spot for Green Bay in my opinion, it’s won three straight and seven of its last eight, but now faces an extremely determined home side which is 8-7 ATS in its last 15 after three or more consecutive SU defeats. And note that Green Bay is a poor 4-5 ATS in its last nine after allowing 65 points or less in its previous contest. As I like to say, “Desperation breeds motivation.” Play on WISCONSIN MILWAUKEE.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the San Antonio Spurs.

For a number of different reasons I think that the home side is the savvy move here. Despite Phoenix being one of the hottest clubs in the league right now, it’s rarely had any success whatsoever in San Antonio and I definitley think that strong trend of futility continues in this one. The Spurs will be especially motivated to return to their winning ways after losing 105-104 to Detroit on Tuesday, a game in which they were ahead by three with ten seconds, only to fall for the eighth time in 12 games. Phoenix is 10-2 since mid December, but needed to hold on for dear life in Tuesday’s 113-111 victory over Minnesota. But as mentioned off the top, the Suns have struggled in San Antonio, losing nine of the last ten there. Also note that the Spurs will be playing with the revenge factor after falling 94-89 in Phoenix back on October 31st. It’s a perfect situation for us to take advantage of, the home side is without question the “hungrier” team, while the Suns come in a bit complacent. And from a trend based stand point, this selection is about as solid as you could possibly ask for, note that Phoenix is just 8-9 ATS this year after allowing 105 points or more, while San Antonio is 6-2 ATS this season off an upset loss as a favorite. In my opinion, after taking all of the above factors into consideration, all signs do indeed point to the SPURS as the correct call in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Sacramento Kings.

While I do believe that the outright win isn’t out of the question in this one, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the home side to keep this game a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The Thunder are coming off a 117-91 loss at Golden State on Monday. Note that OKC is not expected to have guard Dion Waiters available for this one yet; and that’s bad news for a bench which, other than Anthony Morrow who had 17 points, combined to score just 20 in the loss to the Warriors. To say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement as well as the Thunder have won the last 12 straight in this series, including two already this year (both SU and ATS). But here’s a big opportunity for the Kings to bounce back, this is the first of six straight in front of the home town crowd, note that Sacramento is 7-3 ATS in its last ten as a home dog in the 6.5 to 9 points range. It’s my opinion that this spread is just a little large, play on the KINGS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* SEC ASSASSIN on Florida. 

South Carolina has been an ATS machine for bettors this year, while Florida has clearly taken a step back from last season’s form. Despite those facts, I think the Gators come to play today and while I obviously believe the outright win is a very real possibility, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. If history is any precedence, then Florida has to be loving its chances here as it’s 13-5 SU with Billy Donovan as coach when starting conference play. The Gators will be especially pumped to return to winning form as well after back to back losses in the closing moments to FSU and UConn respectively. I think the Gamecocks come in a bit complacent here, they’ve won seven straight, beating Oklahoma State and Clemson along the way. Note that Florida is 4-1 ATS in its last five when playing the role of underdog and 2-1 ATS this year vs. good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less per contest. And note that South Carolina is a poor 3-7 ATS in its last ten as a home favorite of 3 points or less or pick. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to FLORIDA as the savvy move here.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* COAST-TO-COAST ASSASSIN on the Chicago Bulls.

A couple of the league’s top teams meet on Monday night and for a number of different situational and strong trend basesd reasons, when the smoke clears at the end of this one I expect the home side to a find a way to get the job done. The Bulls come in with plenty of momentum, they’ve won nine of their last ten games and are expected to welcome back gritty guard Jimmy Butler to the lineup (Butler missed Saturday’s 109-104 OT win over Boston to attend a funeral); note that Butler was named the NBA player of the week on December 29th. Chicago is riding high with Pau Gasol, the four-time All-Star is averaging 18 points and leading the team with 11.2 boards; note that Gasol scored a season-high tying 29 with 16 rebounds in the win over the C’s: “I’m a confident guy," Gasol reflected afterwards. "I'm a competitor. You always have to hope for the best and be positive and optimistic. I didn't know what was going to happen, how I was going to fit in. But I knew I was going to try and do my best to provide everything and give us the best chance to win a title." I chose the Rockets to cash as champion at 15-1 this year and for the most part the team looks pretty solid, it’s 23-10 after crushing Miami 115-79 on Saturday. Home court advantage can’t be overlooked in this one though, note that Houston is a poor 0-3 ATS this year after allowing 85 points or less, while Chicago is a solid 8-6 ATS in its last 14 vs. teams with winning records. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends all do indeed point to the BULLS as the sharp move in this one.

AAA Sports 

This is a 10* ART OF THE GAME on the Washington Wizards.

For a number of different situational and strong trend based reasons, I think the Wizards can at the very least, keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. I think New Orleans comes in flat/complacent today, it’s coming off a big 111-83 victory over the Rockets on Friday. Conversely, there’s no question in my mind which of these two teams will be the “hungrier”, this is the final game of four-game trip for Washington and it’s dropped the first three vs. some very stiff competition in Dallas, OKC and San Antonio. And as mentioned off the top, from a trend based stand point, this play is about as strong as you could possibly ask for, note that Washington is already 6-5 ATS in 11 non-conference games this year and 41-29 ATS in the same position over the last two. And note that New Orleans is a poor 3-4 ATS this season when playing with two days of rest and just 4-6 ATS after scoring 105 points or more. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the WIZARDS as the savvy move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BEATDOWN on Towson.

For a number of different reasons (mainly strong trend based ones), I expect Towson to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Towson is coming off a 61-52 loss to James Madison in the Colonial Ahtletic Association opener for both teams last Saturday. The Tigers are now 7-7 overall and 0-1 CAA. Elon is coming off a 77-67 win over Drexel in its first game as a member of the CAA. These teams have just one common opponent this year, as each would claim wins over Morgan State, the Tigers would beat the Bears 51-46, while the Phoenix would need to rally from 19 points down for a 74-73 victory. But from a trend based stand point, this play is about as strong as you could possibly ask for as Elon is a poor 3-6 ATS in its last nine after scoring 75 points or more, while Towson is a fantastic 6-1 ATS in its last seven after losing five or more consecutive SU contests. In my opinion, this line should be a little larger, play on TOWSON.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* SUPER-BLOWOUT on Fairfield.

For a number of different reasons I like Fairfield to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. I think Rider comes in a bit complacent here after winning four in a row. The Broncos are a good team, four players average between 11.1 and 9.1 PPG, but I simply feel that this is a tough spot for it. Most recently Rider is coming off a 69-59 win over Marist on Friday. From a “motivational” stand point, there’s no question in my mind which team will be the “hungrier” as note, Fairfield would begin the year 2-0 in conference play, but comes in having lost four straight, including a frustrating 68-67 loss at home to Siena on Friday (note that the Stags actually led 66-63 in the closing moments before blowing it). This is also a “double revenge” spot for Fairfield, which lost 71-62 in Bridgeport on February 15th, after also falling 73-65 on February 3rd in Rider. And finally note, this is the third consecutive road game for the Broncos, making this is a natuarl letdown spot for the visitors in my opinion. A plethora of favorable situational factors collide to make FAIRFIELD the savvy move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Sacramento Kings.

While I obviously feel that the outright win isn’t out of the question here, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the visitors to at the very least, sneak in through the back door in what should be a highly competitive affair. The Pistons have been on quite a roll since waiving Josh Smith, winning four in a row. Detroit hasn’t won five in a row in more than five years and suffice it to say, I think the “wheels come off the bus” today. As primarily a situational handicapper, these are exactly the types of games I keep my eyes open for, in my opinion this definitely sets up as a ledown spot for the suddenly over achieving Pistons; and note, it’s not hard to imagine Detroit getting caught looking ahead to its lengthy road trip starting against the defending Champions on Tuesday. Sacramento has definitely been struggling, but is coming off a 110-107 victory over the Wolves last time out. However, bettors have been getting killed betting on the Kings of late as the team has failed to cover the spread in 11 straight contests (you may not know, but one angle that I always try to exploit is “lopsided” numbers or trends; this play falls directly into that system). This is also a revenge spot for the Kings after they fell 95-90 to Detroit at home as 5.5 point favorites on December 13th. It’s interesting to note that Sacramento is 3-1 ATS this season after playing three or more consecutive road games, while Detroit is a poor 4-12 ATS in front of the home town crowd and just 2-8 ATS when playing the role of favorite. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to the KINGS as the sharp move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ACC ASSASSIN on Georgia Tech.

For a number of different reasons (mainly strong trend based ones), I think that Georgia Tech will keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Granted, this will hardly be a cake-walk, the 14th ranked Irish are averaging a conference-best 86.1 points. Notre Dame is most recently coming off an 87-60 victory of Hartford. But now Notre Dame will finally face some competition as conference play begins; there’s definitely one area that Georgia Tech can take advantage of as well today as the Yellow Jackets had 17 second-chance points from 15 offensive rebounds in a 67-66 win over Charlotte on Tuesday and rank third in the ACC at 14.7 offensive rebounds per game. But as mentioned off the top, this selection is primarily based on strong ATS trends, note that Georgia Tech is already 2-1 ATS as an underdog this year and 3-1 ATS vs. good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less per contest. And note that Notre Dame is already 0-1 ATS this year after allowing 60 point or less and 6-8 ATS in the same position over the last two. In my opinion, this spread is a little large, indeed making GEORGIA TECH the savvy move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* EAST-COAST EXPRESS on the New York Knicks.

A couple of cellar dwellers face off in the Big Apple on Friday night and only one will leave MSG with a victory; in my opinion, there are enough situational, motivational and strong trend based factors working in favor of the home side to indeed pull the trigger on the Knicks in this matchup. New York is now on the cusp of another 10-game losing streak, its second of the year. The Knicks are also in the midst of their longest home losing streak in franchise history. Now also throw in the fact that the Pistons beat New York in Detroit at the start of the season, and there’s no question in my mind which of these two teams will be the “hungrier.” This also sets up as a classic “letdown” spot for the suddenly over-achieving Pistons who have won three straight after Tuesday’s 109-86 effort in Orlando. Here’s a quote from Carmelo Anthony that you’ve never heard before: "I've never been 5-29," said Anthony yesterday. "It's getting testing not to get frustrated and it's tough to keep a smile on my face." As mentioned off the top, there are several strong ATS trends working in favor of New York here, the most pertinent being that Detroit is just 1-8 ATS this year when playing the role of favorite and only 5-9 ATS vs. teams with losing records. And note that the Knicks are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 after playing three or more consective road games. While I obviously feel that the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can on NEW YORK.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BEATDOWN on BYU.

For a number of different reasons (mainly strong trend based ones), I expect BYU to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. If history is any precedence, then the Cougars have to be loving their chances here, they’re 10-1 in the series, including 6-0 at home. That includes an 89-72 win last February 22nd; suffice it to say, I’m fully expecting a similar large discrepancy here. Portland returns four starters and seven of the top eight scorers from last year's team that finished 15-16 overall, but BYU has played a tougher schedule than the Pilots and entered the weekend with an RPI of No. 37 nationally. Note that three of the Cougars losses have come by a total of 11 points and two were in OT. Note that Portland is a poor 1-2 ATS this year when playing with one or less days rest and just 7-14 ATS in the same position over the last two. And note that BYU is 5-3 ATS in its last eight after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games. To me the writing is on the wall and a blowout is in the cards, play on the COUGARS.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* WEST-COAST EXPRESS on the Dallas Mavericks.

It likely doesn’t come as a big surprise to learn that the Mavericks are the highest scoring team in the league, however it may come as a surprise to learn that the Thunder are the best team defensively this year. This two dynamic teams meet on Sunday night and when the smoke clears at the end of this one, I expect the “offense” to overcome the “defense.” The Thunder have won two in a row and have done so with the strong play of Russell Westbrook, filling in once again for an injured Kevin Durant. Most recently OKC beat Charlotte 98-75 on Friday. Dallas became even more dangerous after adding point guard Rajon Rondo to the lineup, the Mavericks are coming off a 102-98 win over the Lakers on Friday: "Just getting a lot more comfortable," said Rondo after scoring 21 vs. LA. "Coach (Rick Carlisle) just told me to try to get in the paint. I try to take what the defense gives me. We basically just have to communicate on the floor. The game is still the same." In my opinion, Westbrook and the Thunder have been playing over their heads without Durant and I think it finally catches up to them tonight; note that OKC is just 4-5 ATS this year after a win by 10 points or more, while Dallas is 8-4 ATS this season vs. teams with losing records. I’m playing the MAVERICKS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the San Antonio Spurs.

A loss on Sunday would mark the Spurs seventh loss in their last eight games, something San Antonio has not done since 1997 when big man Tim Duncan was still playing at Wake Forest. Suffice it to say, I think this proud, revenge minded champion comes to play today and finds a way to get job done at the end of the night. Houston signed Josh Smith and then went out and beat Memphis 117-111 in overtime on Friday, Smith would score 21. In my mind, this sets up as a bit of a letdown spot for the Rockets after that big victory. Conversely, there’s no question which team will be the “hungrier”, not only will the Spurs be looking to atone for their recent lacklutre efforts, they’ll also be looking to avenge a listless 98-81 setback to the Rockets on November 6th, a game in which San Antonio played without Duncan and Manu Ginobili; both are expected to be in the line-up today (the Spurs have in fact lost six straight in this series). Whether Tony Parker or Kawhi Leonard play today or not doesn’t matter in my opinion, note that Houston is a poor 2-3 ATS this year off an upset win as an underdog, while San Antonio is 12-8 ATS this season vs. good offensive teams which average 99-plus points per contest. A great situational opportunity, play on the SPURS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* SITUATIONAL BEATDOWN on Illinois.

Illinois is 9-3, but has struggled ATS for bettors so far this year. I think that changes tonight though as I expect the Illni to come in focused and to bury Kennesaw State down the stretch. With one last warm-up before Big Ten conference play starts on Tuesday, I think the home side makes the most of this opportunity. Illinois has won 36 straight non-conference games at the State Farm Center. The Illini also come in with plenty of momentum after Rayvonte Rice nailed a game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer to give his team the 62-59 win over Missouri in the annual Braggin’ Rights contest. The Owls are clearly out of their league today, Illinois hasn’t lost to an opponent outside the Big Ten at home since the 2010 NIT quarterfinals. Kennesaw State comes in with zero confidence, it’s lost five of its last six and has just one road win so far, most recently falling short vs. Elon on Monday, losing 67-65. The Owls have been outscored by an average of 27.5 points per game this year. And that plays directly into the Illini’s hands, they rank 29th in the nation in points with 77.9 per game (and note, Kennesaw State has in fact been outscored by an average margin of 41.6 points in the last three meetings with Big Ten foes). Note that the Owls are already 0-2 ATS in non-conference games this season, while Illinois is 4-2 ATS in its last six vs. poor offensive teams which average 64 point or less per contest. I think the writing is on the wall and a blowout is in the cards; play on ILLINOIS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Detroit Pistons.

While I obviously believe that the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as the home side finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. There’s no question which team will be the “hungrier” here. Detroit returns from the X-Mas break without Josh Smith in the lineup, the high-priced forward was let go: "He's taking the most shots," Detroit coach Stan Van Gundy argued yesterday. "He's got the ball in his hands a lot. We would have had to have reduced his role offensively. I don't think he would have been happy with that at this point in his career. ... I thought it was best for him, I thought it was best for us. If we were 12-16 or 10-18, we probably wouldn't be here. We're 5-23. That calls, in every respect, for some adjustment. Some things had to be different." There’s no sugar-coating Detroit’s play to date, it’s struggled on both ends of the court, but from a situational stand point I think this is a golden opportunity to take advantage of, whenever an organization makes a big move like the one that the Pistons just made, invariably the team will respond with a resounding effort across the board and that’s exactly what I expect here. And to say this is a revenge spot would be a bit of an understatement I think as Indiana has won eight of the last nine in the series. I also think that the Pacers come in a bit complacent here after winning two straight and who could be without the services of big man Roy Hibbert who is listed as day to day. Note that Indiana is just 1-2 ATS this year after allowing 85 points or less, while Detroit is 30-16 ATS in its last 46 after scoring 105 points or more. Grab as many points as you can with DETROIT.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* BLOCKBUSTER on the Miami Heat.

This is a situatioally based selection. I played on the Minnesota Timberwolves on Tuesday and they’d fall apart down the stretch and fail to cover with the large 14 point spread in Cleveland, an unfortunate setback, but we can make up for it here. The Cavaliers have won three in a row SU and back to back ATS, and after tonight play in Orlando on Boxing day. Miami on the other hand has lost three of its last four, including an embarrassing 91-87 home loss to Philadelphia on Tuesday. Of course LeBron will be “pumped” today, but in my opinion the Heat will clearly be the “hungrier” team in this position. Not only will Miami be eager to beat its old teammate, but it will also be extremely focused to atone for the recent lacklustre overall play of late. From strictly a motivational stand point, there’s no question in my mind which team has the advantage. And note that one area that the Cavs have consistently been mediocre in this year is their play on the road, while they do come to town with a 6-5 SU record away from friendly confines, note that they’re just 4-7 ATS. Also note that Cleveland has already shown a penchant for having a “letdown” in this position as it’s a poor 3-5 ATS this season after three or more consecutive SU victories. It would be great to have Chris Bosh in the line-up for us, and if I were 100% sure he was going to play, then this selection likely would have garnered a 10* rating, but regardless of whether he plays or not, I think MIAMI is indeed the savvy move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* EAST-COAST EXPRESS on the Orlando Magic.

For a number of different situational, motivational and trend based reasons, I expect the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. The Magic will certainly be the more motivated as they look to snap a four-game slide. Boston would win its first game without Rajon Rondo in the lineup, but then quickly fell apart in the second, a 100-84 setback at Miami on Sunday. Boston shot just 39.8 percent in their lowest-scoring game of the year and unfortunately for the C’s, a date on the road is not what the doctor ordered to get untracked as the Celtics have lost five of their last six away from friendly confines. And to say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement, Boston would beat Orlando 109-92 on Wednesday, the C’s 12th win in the last 13 in the series. And from a trend based stand point, this is a very solid play, note that Boston is just 12-14 ATS in its last 26 after scoring 85 points or less, while Orlando is 10-6 ATS this year vs. good offensive teams which score 99 plus points per contest. Play on ORLANDO.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH on the Minnesota Timberwolves.

For me, this is strictly a situationally based selection; I believe this to be a classic “letdown/lookahead” spot for the home side and like the visitors to keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Of course, this is going to be a “weird” game for the Cavs’ Kevin Love, he’ll be playing his first game against his former team for the first time. And not to be outdone, Cleveland then plays on Christmas day in Miami, LeBron James in South Beach for the first time since his trade. This is a perfect situation that both the Wolves (and us!) can take advantage of. And for me, it’s as simple as that. I believe the Cavs’ big weapons come in a bit distracted, leaving the back door open just enough for the visitors to sneak in through down the stretch. Play on MINNESOTA.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* WEST-COAST EXPRESS on the Houston Rockets.

A couple of the best in the West face off on Monday night and as you can tell by the line, the oddsmakers pretty much think this is a pick-em game. And why not? The Blazers are the hottest team in the league right now, but the Rockets start has been equally as impressive and they clearly have the home court advantage working for them. So where’s the value? In my opinion, home floor advantage is a factor which can’t be overlooked, I look for Houston to take care of business in its own building. We also can’t overlook the massive revenge factor, as it was Damian Lillard’s buzzer-beating 3-pointer in Game 6 in last season’s Western Conference playoffs which sent the Rockets packing for the summer. Portland has been fantastic of late, it’s coming off a 114-88 win over New Orleans on Saturday, which was on the heels of beating the Spurs 129-119 in a triple OT thriller the night before. Suffice it to say, I think this sets up as a natural letdown spot for Portland. Houston on the other hand comes in razor focused, it’s already lost back to back games for the second time this season. There are a ton of situational and motivational factors working in favor of the Rockets today, but also note that the Blazers are just 6-7 ATS this year after scoring 105 points or more, while Houston is 9-7 ATS this season versus good offensive teams which average 99 plus points per contest. This number should be a little larger in my opinion, play on the ROCKETS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BIG MONDAY BLOWOUT on Illinois Chicago.

UIC is just 3-9, while Northwestern is 7-4. For a number of different reasons though (mainly based on strong trends), I think the Flames will keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. This is a “revenge” game as well for UIC as NU would roll to a 93-58 beatdown last year. One player to keep your eyes on today is UIC’s Jay Harris, who was named the Horizon League player of the week after scoring a career-high 32 points vs. UCF on December 11th. Northwestern is coming off a hard-fought 67-61 win over Western Michigan with Tre Demps leading the way with 17 points. Suffice it to say, I think this sets up as a natuarl letdown/lookahead spot for Northwestern. And note, from a trend based stand point, this is about as strong as you could possibly ask for as Illinois Chicago is 6-4 ATS in its last ten as a road underdog in the 9.5 to 12 points range, while Northwestern is just 2-3 ATS at home this year and only 14-23 ATS in the same position over the last two. After taking all of the above factors into consideration, in my opinion all signs do indeed point to UIC as the sharp move here.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* PACIFIC CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR on the Sacramento Kings.

After losing to the Lakers earlier in the month and looking to avoid a season-high sixth straight loss overall, I look for the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Sacramento was SO close to stopping the slide last time out as well, big man DeMarcus Cousins returned to go 8 of 12 for 27 points, 11 rebounds and five assists, but it wasn’t enough as the Kings would fall 108-107 to the Bucks for their tenth loss in their last 12 games. Sacramento went 2-8 with Cousins sidelined, but I think the team will come in focused here. Also note, the way in which the Kings lost to the Lakers this year will not be sitting well with them, they allowed Kobe Bryant to score nine of his 32 points over the final 3:15, LA would rally from a seven point deficit to win 98-95 (Cousins did not play in that one). Note though that there is some room to read between the lines in that performance, Black Mamba shot only 11 of 27 that night and he’s been even worse since, he was just 12 of 15 on Friday and was held to just nine points in a disheartening 104-103 home to loss to Oklahoma City. The Kings will also be hungry to avoid a five game slide in front of the home town crowd. It’s a perfect set of motivational and situational factors that we can take advantage of. Also note that LA is already a poor 5-6 ATS vs. good offensive teams which average 99 plus points or more per contest and 1-3 ATS vs. divisional opponents, while Sacramento is already 2-1 ATS vs. division opponents this year, 2-1 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite and 6-4 ATS after allowing 105 points or more in its previous contest. After considering all of the above factors, I believe this number is just a little low; play on SACRAMENTO.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ART OF WAR on California.

For a number of different reasons I think that the Golden Bears come to play today and expect them to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. California certainly comes in with momentum, it’s won six straight and is 9-1 overall. It’s the team’s best start since 2001. Also note, this is the opener of five straight at home for the Bears who are coming off a 67-57 victory over Princeton on Saturday. And if history is any precedence, then California has to be loving its chances tonight, the Bears have won nine straight at Haas Pavilion, while also triumphing in 16 straight non-conference home games dating back to 2012. Simply put, I can’t see the Eagles keeping pace, Cal has been getting the job done with suffocating defensive play, through 10 games the Golden Bears are limiting their opposition to just 58.6 per contest. One player to keep your eyes on today is Cal’s junior point guard Tyrone Wallace who is one of the countries best at his position, he’s already a two-time Pac-12 Player of the Week this year and ranks second in the Pac-12 at 19.4 ppg (he ranks 20th nationally in total points). As mentioned off the top, California comes in with a ton of momentum and so to would have Eastern Washington if it didn’t just come off a 76-52 loss at Sam Houston State on Tuesday night, it’s first setback of the year after opening the season with eight-straight wins; in my opinion, this definitely sets up as a classic “letdown” spot for the visitors after their big season opening win streak was snapped. Note that the Eagles are just 3-5 ATS in their last eight after scoring 60 points or less, while California is 3-2 ATS in its last five as a home favorite in the 6.5 to 9.5 points range. A fantastic situational play supported by extremely strong ATS trends, there’s no question in my mind that CALIFORNIA is the sharp move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Detroit Pistons.

For a number of different reasons I think that the home side can keep this one close enough to at the very least sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what I feel to be a healthy amount of points afforded to it in this matchup. I believe that Toronto finally comes in a bit complacent here, it’s won four straight; conversely, there’s no question in my mind that Detroit will be the “hungrier” team tonight as it’s looks to avoid a 13th straight home loss, the Pistons worse such run in nearly half a century. I also believe this sets up as a classic “letdown” spot for Toronto which would hammer Brooklyn 105-89 at home on Wednesday, getting some minor revenge after the Nets knocked it out of the playoffs last year. Detroit has lost 11 straight at The Palace of Auburn Hills after falling to Dallas 117-106 on Wednesday. There are now plenty of trade rumors swirling around the Pistons, which will only have Detroit players on their toes in my opinion. This is also a “revenge” spot for the home side after Toronto took all three meetings last year. And with a game vs. the lowly Knicks at home on Sunday, it’s hard not to imagine Toronto taking this stretch of play a little lightly. And from a trend based stand point, they don’t get much stronger than this, note that the Raptors are a poor 4-7 ATS this year after a win by 10 points or more, while Detroit is 30-15 ATS in its last 45 after scoring 105 points or more. After taking all of the above factors into consideration, there’s no question in my mind that the PISTONS are the savvy move here.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* COAST-TO-COAST EXPRESS on the Minnesota Timberwolves.

I jumped on this line before the news of the Rajon Rondo trade, but regardless of whatever it closes at, I love this selection for obvious reasons and look for the hungry Wolves to take advantage of a suddenly discombobulated Celtics team. Boston shipped Rondo to Dallas for Jameer Nelson and some draft picks and suffice it to say, without their general on the floor conducting the flow of the game, I think the C’s suffer badly tonight. From a situational stand point, they don’t get much stronger than this. And then when you add on some incredibly strong ATS trends working in Minnesota’s favor, there’s no question in my mind where the value lies; note that the Wolves are 5-4 ATS in their last nine following three or more consecutive SU losses, while Boston is just 2-6 ATS in non-conferenc contests this season. Grab as many points as you can and unload on MINNESOTA.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ART OF WAR on Central Florida.

UCF has been a disaster for bettors to start the year, but I think the Knights keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe as they finally get off the ATS schneid and at the very least, sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what I feel is a healthy amount of points affored to them in this spot. This is the start of a big road trip for Detroit and I think it comes in a bit flat footed in the opener; note that this game will be the first of an eight day road trip which covers more than 7,000 miles for the Titans. With no prior history against each other, I think it’s important to look at each team’s “situation” closely. Detroit is coming off a 77-68 loss to No. 11 Wichita State on Saturday and actually owned a 54-44 lead with 11:54 remaining; the Titans though would choke and the Shockers would use a closing 33-14 run to secure the victory. Suffice it to say, I think this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the visitors. UCF will clearly come in as the “hungrier” team, it’s coming off a third-straight setback, a very lacklustre 54-41 loss to visiting Florida Atlantic on Saturday night. The Knights actually had a 26-25 half time lead, but would go on to have an atrocious second half. But as I always like to say, desperation breeds motivation and I think Central Florida comes in focused on the task at hand. Note that Detroit is 13-20 ATS in its last 33 when playing the role of favorite, while UCF is 4-3 ATS after three or more consecutive SU losses. While I obviously believe the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can; play on CENTRAL FLORIDA.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the LA Clippers.

After a sluggish start, the Pistons have looked a lot better of late, especially against the spread. And after a torrid run, the Clippers have come back down to earth for bettors recently. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting “normalcy” to return today and look for the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. LA has won seven straight in this series and I don’t expect anything to change tonight. A big reason behind the lop-sided domination has been the play of dynamic PG Chris Paul who has averaged 20.8 points and 11.6 assists in going 5-0 vs. the Pistons since joining the Clippers. Most recently Paul would score 23 points in the third frame in his team’s 104-98 road win in Detroit back on November 26th. While LA won SU in that one, it did not in fact cover the spread, which I feel only strengthens today’s pick. Paul and the Clippers will also be looking to atone for Friday’s 104-96 setback in Washington in which he finished with six turnovers and also for Saturday’s 111-106 setback to Milwaukee on Saturday in which he had the same amount: “We have to defend," Paul assessed after the back-to-back losses. "We have to play better." Detroit has won two in a row, ending a 13-game slide in Friday’s 105-103 victory at Phoenix, before then beating Sacramento 95-90 the following night. As I like to say, even the sun has to shine on a dog’s bum-hole every now and then; suffice it to say, I’m fully expecting the Pistons to return to mediocrity tonight. Note that LA is among the top-shooting teams in the league at 47.9 percent, while Detroit ranks dead last at just 40.9. And note that Detroit is just 5-10 ATS this year in revenging a loss vs. an opponent, while LA is 4-1 ATS this season after playing three consecutive road games. In my opinion, after taking all of the above factors into account, I feel that this line should in fact be a bit larger and do indeed believe the value lies with the CLIPPERS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* SUPER-BLOWOUT on Austin Peay.

For a number of different strong trend based reasons, I think that the home side will find a way to get the job done at the end of the night as it successfully pulls away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. I expect the Trojans to come in a bit complacent here as well, they’re in the midst of a three-game win streak (note, there is some room to read between the lines in those wins though, against Alcorn State, Central Arkansas and Fort Valley State repectively). And conversely, I think Austin Peay comes in highly focused, it’s coming off three straight losses as the Governors would drop their first home game since mid-November in losing to Lipscomb 68-59 on Saturday. But as mentioned off the top, for the most part I have chosen this play because of some strong/lop-sided trends; note that Troy is already a poor 1-2 ATS this year when playing the role of underdog and only 1-2 ATS in non-conference games. And note that Austin Peay is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 after three or more consecutive SU losses and 13-8 ATS in its last 21 vs. teams with winning records. In my opinion, this line should in fact be a bit larger, indeed making AUSTIN PEAY the sharp move here.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* BAIL-OUT BLOWOUT on Pacific.

For a number of different reasons I look for the home side to take care of business and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. WMU is coming off a loss to Northeastern in which its defense struggled to make necessary stops. And that doesn’t bode well for a Tigers team which comes in with momentum after knocking off the Idaho State Bengals, 68-62 last weekend. It was Pacific’s third straight win. The Tigers defense has been very effective so far this year in allowing just 63.2 PPG and I think will be able to really test the Broncos today. WMU will also have its hands full with the Tigers’ seven-foot, 245 pound somphomore starting center. Note that Western Michigan is already just 1-2 ATS on the road this year, while Pacific is 5-1 ATS in its last six non-conference games. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to PACIFIC as the sharp move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* SUPER-BLOWOUT on Penn State.

Penn State is 9-1 this year, but has had difficulty covering the spread so far this season. While it won’t be easy, I do finally expect the Nittany Lions to get off the schneid for bettors and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. This is a big test for Penn State, George Washington is the closest thing to an NCAA Tournament team that it’s faced so far. The Colonials enter off a win over DePaul and rank 32nd nationally in adjusted defensive effeciency. We can expect Lions’ coach Pat Chambers to slow this game down, as GW’s two losses have come in “ultra-slow” contests; note that both games the Colonials lost came in contests that had 60 or fewer possessions. Penn State will also look to establish in the paint, the big men performed very well in Wednesday’s win over Duqane. Note that the Nittany Lions are 28th in the country in 2pt% defense. And note, as good as George Washington has played this year that it’s just 1-2 ATS vs. teams with winning records this season, while Penn State is 16-13 ATS in its last 29 vs. good defensive teams which allow 64 point or less per contest. The bottom line is, this is the first opportunity of the year for Penn State to get a quality win and I have every confidence in Chambers’ ability to have his team focused on the task at hand; play on PENN STATE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* ATS BEATDOWN on the Dallas Mavericks.

Both of these teams are surging, but I think the home side comes to play today and finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The Warriors haven’t lost in more than a month, but I think will be in for a big surprise today as they face the league’s highest scoring team on its own floor. It’s not too hard to imagine Golden State coming in a bit complacent here, it’s won 14 straight by an average of 13.3 points, most recently pulling away for a 105-93 victory over Houston on Wednesday. Golden State has been getting the job done with tough defensive play, but Dallas is among the NBA’s best in field-goal shooting at 48.2 percent and averages a league-best 110.5 points. Dallas also comes in with considerable momentum, it’s gone 7-2 SU in its last nine and has scored at least 105 in nine straight overall. And to say this is a “revenge” game for the home side would be an understatement I think as Golden State would win the final three meetings between the teams last year. Also note that many of the Mavericks best players are playing much better at home than compared to the road, Montae Ellis is shooting 51.3 percent in Dallas compared to 43.0 percent away from friendly confines (not surprisingly, the Mavs are averaging 115.5 points on their own court to lead the league). Also Dirk Nowitzki has been much better at home where he’s averaging 20.8 points on 56.3 percent shooting. Note that Golden State also comes in with some injuries, David Lee remains out with a hamstring issue, so too does Andrew Bogut with a knee issue. As good as Golden State has been this year for bettors, note that it is in fact 0-1 ATS this season as a road dog of 3.5 points or less, and note that Dallas is 16-12 ATS in its last 28 when playing with two or more days of rest. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to the MAVERICKS as the sharp move here.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Washington Wizards.

For a number of different reasons, I think the home side will find a way to get the job done, and while I obviously think the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Both teams come into this contest red hot, I simply feel that LA is going to finally have a letdown here after winning nine straight though. The Wizards will be looking to post their best home start in franchise history and move to 11-2 in the nation’s capital. Washington is coming off a couple of close contests, a 133-132 double OT victory over Boston before a 91-89 effort in Orlando on Wednesday. Note that the Wizards would commit a season-low ten turnovers and had 26 assists in that one; there’s no question that Washington is playing at an extremely high level right now: "When we play that way, it makes it hard for the other team," Wizards coach Randy Wittman assessed afterwards. "If we're getting 10 or 12 assists, we're going to get beat every time. We move bodies, we move the ball and we don't worry about who's getting shots. Normally we have guys on the floor who can score." One big reason why the Clippers have been playing so well has been because of point guard Chris Paul, but his play will be negated here by the Wizards’ John Wall. This is area is a wash. And without their “energizer bunny” leading the charge, I think the rest of LA will suffer tonight. And as good as the Clippers are offensively, note that the Wizards rank eighth in the league in allowing just 92.2 per contest. And to say this is a “revenge” game for the home side would be a bit of an understatement I think, including dropping both contests last year, the Wizards have in fact lost 10 of the last 11 in the series. And from a trend based stand point, they don’t get much stronger than this, note that LA is 3-6 ATS this season vs. good offensive teams which average 99 plus points per contest, while Washington is 3-1 following a divisional contest this year, 2-1 ATS in non-conference games and 3-2 ATS vs. clubs with winning records. I think the home side comes to play today and when taking into account all of the above factors, all signs do indeed point to the WIZARDS as the sharp wager in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ATS BLOWOUT on Missouri.

Missouri comes in at 4-4, the Tigers would keep their last game vs. the Sooners competitive in the first half, but would wind up losing by 19. Missouri will look to clean up its play vs. 5-3 Elon, which has averaged 114 points over its last two games. Of course, those lop-sided victories came against Virginia University-Lynchburg and Central Pennsylvania; note that guard Tanner Samson is the only player scoring in double figures. From a trend based stand point, this play is as solid as you could possibly ask for, note that Elon is just 6-7 ATS in its last 13 after scoring 80 points or more, while Missouri is 3-1 ATS in its last four after failing to cover the spread in three or more straight games. I believe this spread should be a little higher, play on MISSOURI.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Charlotte Hornets.

Boston is coming off a heart-breaking 133-132 double OT loss to Washington on Monday and I think will come out flat today. Conversely, the Horents finally got off the schneid in breaking a ten game slide by winning a thrilling 103-102 contest vs. the Knicks on Friday. With a few extra days off to refocus on the task at hand, I believe the stage is set for the home side to lay a real whooping on the C’s. Note that Charlotte will be welcoming back offensive spark plug Michael Kidd-Gilchrist after he missed 12 straight games with a foot injury. This is a great situational play, but it becomes even stronger when looking at it from a trend based stand point; note that Boston is 4-6 ATS this year after allowing 105 points or more and 4-5 ATS after scoring 105 points or more. And note that Charlotte is 2-1 ATS this season as a home favorite of 3 points or less. In my opinion, this line should be a little larger, play on the HORNETS.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on Michigan.

For a number of different reasons, I think the Wolverines pound the Eagles today, in my opinion this spread should be a lot larger. Michigan comes in highly motivated obviously as it looks to bounce back from its stunning upset loss to NJIT. Coach John Beilein feels his team can definitely rebound and make lemonade out of lemons: "There are moments in the season that make you a lot better and I hope this is one of them. This is something that is humbling and we have to grow through that humility." A date vs. Eastern Michigan is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked, if history is any precedence, then the home side has to be loving its chances for a big victory today as it’s won 25 of the last 26 in the series. And note, with a game vs. No. 3 Arizona up next, tonight’s contest takes on added importance for this desperate Michigan team. Eastern Michigan would post seven straight victories to start the year before losing 73-64 to Dayton on Saturday and suffice it to say, I think this also sets up as letdown spot. Note that EMU is 2-6 ATS in its last eight as an underdog of 12.5 points or more, while Michigan is 12-7 ATS in its last 19 as a home favorite of 12.5 points or more. As mentioned off the top, I think this line should be larger in my opinion, play on MICHIGAN.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Portland Trailblazers.

Detroit is coming off its first ATS victory in quite some time but has lost 12 straight SU coming into this one and suffice it to say, I think the high-flying visiting side takes full advantage of this scuffling home side. These two teams are obviously moving in complete polar opposite directions right now as Portland is looking for a 14th win in 15 games. Home court advantage has been anything but for the struggling Pistons as they’ve lost nine in a row in Detroit; their last game was particularly heart-wrenching as they’d lose 96-94 to OKC, thir third conecutive winnable contest that got away from them. It was a narrow loss vs. the Blazers last December 15th, as Portland would escape with a 111-109 win thanks to star Damian Lillard’s shot as time expired. LaMarcus Aldridge would lead the way with 24 points and 11 boards in his team’s 103-99 win at New York on Sunday; keep your eyes on the Portland big man as he comes in having strung together a season-best five consecutive double-doubles. I simply can’t see Detroit slowing down or keeping up with the Blazers who come into this contest averaging a whopping 108.5 points during a six game win skein away from friendly confines. It’s also super important to note that Portland has given up an average of just 91.8 points in starting a perfect 9-0 vs. Eastern Conference foes this year (note, conversely that Detroit is just 1-9 vs. the West this year). Note that Portland is 7-2 ATS this year vs. poor defensive teams which allow 99-plus points per contest, while conversely (once again!), Detroit is a poor 2-6 ATS this season vs. good offensive teams which allow 99-plus points per contest. In my opinion, this line should in fact be a lot larger, play on PORTLAND.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* WESTERN-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH on the Phoenix Suns.

Phoenix will look to get back to its winning ways and to also avenge an earlier loss to LA, while I obviously feel that the outright win isn’t out of the question here, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. The Clippers have won nine of their last ten and I think will finally come in a bit complacent, just the opportunity the Suns (and us!) can take advantage of. The Pelicans were the Clippers latest victim, LA would cruise for a 120-100 victory on Saturday. Phoenix will also be looking to atone for a somewhat listless effort vs. the Rockets on Saturday, a 100-95 setback after shooting a combined 53.0 percent in back-to-back victories. From a trend based stand point, this play becomes even stronger, note that Phoenix is 6-3 ATS this season vs. teams that average 99 plus points per contest and 6-4 ATS in revenging a loss vs. an opponent. Conversely, note that LA is just 4-6 ATS in front of the home town crowd this year and only 3-5 ATS vs. good offensive teams which average 99 plus points per contest. In my opinion, this situation, the numbers and the trends do indeed all point to PHOENIX as the sharp move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* EAST-COAST EXPRESS on the Indiana Pacers.

Atlanta comes in having won six straight and I think this sets up as a classic letdown spot as Indiana will look to avenge an earlier loss and take advantage of what I think is a great situational spot. The Hawks have looked a lot better of late, but I think there is some room to read between the lines, their win skein has come against teams that currently own losing records. It’s not hard to imagine Atlanta coming in a bit complacent here as well, after Indiana the Hawks host the lowly 76ers on Wednesday before opening a home and home set with the Magic on Friday. Also note that the Hawks are coming off a game just last night, a 96-84 victory over Denver. After a decent start to the year, the Pacers have taken a step back of late, they return home off a winless four-game trip which concluded with a tough 102-101 OT loss at Sacramento. Note that Atlanta is in fact just 3-4 ATS this season as the underdog, while Indiana is 8-0 ATS this year following a non-conference game and 8-4 ATS vs. good offensive teams which average 99 plus points per contest. I’m backing the PACERS.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Dallas Mavericks.

For a number of different reasons I like the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Dallas has won the last four straight in this series and will be motivated to return to its winning ways after Friday’s 118-106 loss to Phoenix which snapped a four-game win streak. While the Mavericks did beat the Bucks 107-105 in Milwaukee on Wednesday, they did not cover the spread. One player to keep your eyes on is big man Tyson Chandler who had 18 points and 20 boards in the win over the Bucks. Milwaukee is coming off a 109-85 win over Miami on Friday (I successfully played on the UNDER in that one), the victory snapped a three-game slide. Note though that the Bucks are a poor 2-3 ATS this year off an upset win as an underdog and just 1-3 ATS after allowing 85 points or less. And note that Dallas is 50-42 ATS in its last 92 vs. teams with winning records. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to the MAVERICKS as the sharp move here.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ATS DESTRUCTION on the Detroit Pistons.

Philadelphia has been losing, but it’s been covering the spread, including last night’s game vs. the Thunder. The Pistons have been losing (10 straight), both SU and ATS, but I definitely feel that the conditions are finally right for Detroit to get off the schneid and look for it to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Note that Philadelphia is 0-9 vs. Eastern Conference foes this year. This is the opportunity that the Pistons have been waiting for as they look to avoid losing 11 straight for the first time since 2010. Detroit had a shot in its last game but came up short in a 109-102 setback in OT at Boston, Andre Drummond had 27 points and 14 boards. And if history is any precedence, then the Pistons have to be loving their chances as Philadelphia has lost 13 of its last 18 in Detroit. From a trend based stand point, this play is as solid as you could possibly ask for, note that the 76ers are just 1-2 ATS this year as road dogs in the 6.5 to 9 points range, while the Pistons are 2-1 ATS this season after allowing 105 points or more. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends all point to DETROIT as the savvy move here.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on Saint Louis.

While I won’t call for an outright upset here, I do definitely feel this is too many points to be giving up and like Saint Louis to keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. No. 10 Wichita State had its 35-game regular season winning streak snapped by Utah last Wednesday, losing 69-68 in OT and I firmly believe that this contest today sets up as a classic “letdown” spot for it. The Billikens actually almost shocked the Shockers last year, but a 19-7 run over the final 3:17 pushed Wichita State to the 70-65 win. St. Louis is tough, it posted an 11-1 mark away from friendly confines last year and is coming off an 80-58 beatdown of Division II Rockhurst last Tuesday. This is a great situational play, but when looking at it from a trend based stand point, it becomes even stronger, note that Saint Louis is 5-3 ATS in its last eight after scoring 80 points or more, while Wichita State is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight vs. poor offensive teams which score 64 points or less. Grab as many points as you can with SAINT LOUIS.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* ATS SITUATIONAL BEATDOWN on Florida.

For a number of different reasons I like the Gators to at the very least keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what I believe is a healthy amount of points afforded to them in this one. I think Kansas, who has won four straight (both SU and ATS), comes in a tiny bit complacent here, the opportunity that Florida (and us!) is looking for. Kansas would beat Michigan State 61-56 on Nov. 30th to win the Orland Classic title; the Jayhawks are averging 69.2 points and outrebounding their opposition 40.8 to 33.0. In all, nine players average 10 or more minutes per game for Kansas. Florida is just 3-3 on the season, but I think will be prepared today. The Gators average 63.5 points and have a +3.8 scoring margin; they’re also outrebounding their opposition 37.7 to 33.0. This is of course a revenge game for Kansas after Florida beat it 67-61, but note that the Jayhawks are a poor 16-20 ATS in their last 36 non conference contests, while the Gators are a great 5-2 ATS in their last seven after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games. This is just a few too many points to be giving up here in my opinion, grab as many points as you can with FLORIDA.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Charlotte Hornets.

A great situational play here in my opinion, New York is coming off a game just last night at home vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers, this definitely sets up as letdown spot for the visitors in my opinion. Conversely, the desperate home side has lost ten in a row SU. This is also a revenge spot for the Hornets after falling 96-93 in New York back on November 2nd. From a “situational” stand point, this is as solid as a selection as you could possibly ask for. However, it becomes even stronger when taking into account some poweful ATS trends, note that the Knicks are just 2-8 ATS vs. teams with losing records this year, while the Hornets are 4-2 ATS this season in revenging a loss vs. an opponent. I like CHARLOTTE to pull away down the stretch for its long awaited victory.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Houston Rockets.

Despite being down a few pieces, I think the home side comes to play today. These are the league’s best defensive clubs and each comes in with considerable momentum. Houston will once again be without the services of big man Dwight Howard, but that’s not going to matter today for the revenge minded Rockets in my opinion. Memphis comes in on a five-game win streak, but will have its hands full today after beating Houston 119-93 back on November 17th, a season high for points allowed for the home side. A closer look at the numbers in that game reveal that Memphis shot season highs in that contest; simply put, I don’t see the visitors being able to accomplish that twice against the Rockets. Houston has already played without Howard for six straight games, so it is now fully accustomed to their current lineup, the Rockets are coming off a 117-103 win at Milwaukee in which James Harden scored 34 points, dished out seven assists, grabbed six boards and posted four steals. Note that Houston has hit a league-best 207 3-pointers so far this year as well. Note that this is in fact a spot that Memphis has struggled in for bettors, already 0-1 ATS after playing three consecutive road games, it’s just 6-9 ATS in its last 15 in the same position over the last two. And note that Houston is 6-3 ATS this year vs. teams with winning records. Play on the ROCKETS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ART OF WAR on Miami Ohio.

While I’m not going to call for an outright upset, I do think that the RedHawks can at the very least keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what I feel is a healthy amount of points afforded to them. Certaintly Miami Ohio will be the more motivated team today, it’s looking to snap a three-game slide. Conversely, I think this finally sets up as a bit of a letdown spot for the surging Flyers, they’re coming off a 75-41 win over UIC on Saturday, while the RedHawks are looking to take their frustrations out on someone after a tough 70-68 loss in the final moment to Elon on Sunday. For me, this is a situational play (which is how I base almost all of my College Basketball picks); another reason I like the home side is that this is a final contest before making two true road trips. Not surprisingly, this is also a revenge game for Miami Ohio. I jumped on this line early, you’ll be able to get a much better one, regardless, I really love this play as in my opinion, all signs point to the REDHAWKS as the savvy move in this one.

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This is a 10* BLOWOUT on UT Arlington.

I think UT Arlington can keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what I believe to be a healthy amount of points afforded to it in this one. The Mavericks are now 3-3 on the year after dropping road contests at No. 1 Kentucky and Montanta State last week. The No. 7 ranked Longhorns present another formidable task for UT Arlington, but the challenges are actually the same as many they’ve faced already in those two tough games: “Texas is playing extremely well," Mavericks coach Scott Cross assessed last night. "I watched the game yesterday against UConn and Coach Barnes drew up an unbelievable play for them to win the game at the very end. They're huge, not quite as big as Kentucky, but they're right there. They do a great job pounding the ball inside. They don't try to do too much. They play with speed, move the ball around and play great defense. They're the No. 6 team in the country, so we're going to have to play our best basketball." Cross believe’s his team will be more focused today: "I'm looking for improvement out of guys defensively and seeing that we're starting to do things the right way," Cross said. "I did not think we did things the right way against Montana State. We need to make sure we get back on track and start doing the little things right." This play for me however is mainly based on strong trends, note that UT Arlington is 4-2 ATS in its last six vs. the Big 12 and 19-11 ATS in its last 30 away from friendly confines. And note that Texas is just 1-3 ATS in its last four vs. poor defensive teams which allow 77-plus points per contest and just 4-5 ATS in its last nine as a favorite of 12.5 points or more. Just a few too many points to be giving up here, play on UT ARLINGTON.

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This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Boston Celtics.

For a number of different reasons I believe the visitors can at the very least keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what I believe is a healthy amount of points afforded to them in this one. I think Atlanta comes in a bit complacent here, it’s been playing much better of late, but I believe this sets up as a classic letdown spott after its big 105-75 home win over Charlotte on Saturday. The Hawks also beat the Pelicans 100-91 on Friday. As I always like to say, desperation breeds motivation and there’s no question that the C’s will be hungry here as they come into this game having dropped seven of their last eight after Sunday’s 111-89 setback to San Antonio. These teams split four games last year, but note that Boston is already 3-2 ATS on the road this season and 2-1 ATS after a loss by ten points or more, while Atlanta is 1-2 ATS this year when playing with two days of rest and just 2-3 ATS vs. good offensive teams which average 99-plus points per contest. A great situational play, this is a few too many points to be giving up here in my opinion, play on BOSTON.

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This is a 10* WEST-COAST EXPRESS on the Utah Jazz.

While I feel the outright win is obviously not out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I feel we’re getting excellent value here on the home side. The Nuggets have won seven of their last nine, most recently a 122-97 thumping of Phoenix on Friday and suffice it to say, I definitely think the team comes in complacent. It’s hard to get a true read on the Nuggets at this point, while they’ve looked a lot better of late, they started the year so poorly, in my opinion the book is still out on this team. Utah will be plenty motivated, Denver is still giving up an average of 110 PPG and the Jazz have yet to top the 100-point plateau in their last seven games. Utah is most recently coming off a 112-96 loss to the Clippers on Saturday, wasting a huge 30-point effort from team leading scorer Gordon Hayward. To say this is a “revenge game” as well would be an understatement as the home side has lost four of the last five in the series. From a trend based stand point, there’s no question this is a strong play as well, as note that Denver is just 3-5 ATS this year away from friendly confines, while Utah is a perfect 5-0 ATS this season after allowing 105 points or more. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the JAZZ as the sharp wager in this one.

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This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the LA Lakers.

With Toronto’s leading scorer DeMar DeRozan sidelined, I think the home side can at the very least keep this one close enough to sneak in through the backdoor with what I feel to be a healthy amount of points afforded to it in this one. LA is a poor team, but will be motivated here to avoid a fifth straight loss and take advantage of the absence of DeMar DeRozan who is averaging 19.4 point for the Raptors; DeRozan torn the tendon in his left groin in Friday’s 106-102 home loss. Toronto still has plenty of weapons, but I think there will be a small adjustment period for the visitors, the perfect opportunity for the hungry Lakers (and us!), to take advantage of. LA will certainly be motivated here as well after falling 120-119 to Minnesota on Friday. Kobe Bryant continues to lead the charge, he’s averaging a league best 26.4 points. Note that Toronto is just 1-2 ATS in its last three as a road favorite in the 6 to 9 points range, while LA is 5-4 ATS this season after allowing 105 points or more. Consider sprinkling a little on the money line as well, play on the LAKERS.

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