This is a 10* on MICHIGAN

With four losses on the season, Michigan has tumbled out of the rankings. But we don’t think it’ll be long until the Wolverines find themselves back in the Top 25. The last time they played, it was a 37-point win over Southern Utah. Not every game is going to be that easy, but tonight’s contest at UCF should be another comfortable victory where Michigan covers the spread. Juwan Howard’s team destroyed UCF last year in Ann Arbor, winning 80-58 as 13-point favorites. They don’t even need to win by half that margin tonight. UCF seems to be getting a bit too much credit for a four-game win streak that hasn’t included any tough matchups. A game at Temple two weeks ago was the only real challenge of sorts. The Golden Knights were blown out by their toughest opponent so far, Auburn, who beat them 85-68 back on Dec 1. Michigan is the toughest team UCF will have faced (besides Auburn) thus far. This is the smallest spread for any Michigan game in 2021. They’ve been favored in every game. It’s been an underachieving start to the season for the Wolverines, but tonight they assert themselves in a major way. They are 10-3 ATS L13 as road favorites while UCF has failed to cover the last four times it has faced an opponent with a win percentage of .600 or better. Play on MICHIGAN

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This is an 8* on PHX

Even at full strength, Oklahoma City would stand little chance of winning this game. But the Thunder aren’t even close to being full strength entering Wednesday. Six players were in protocol for last night’s 117-111 loss in Sacramento. That includes star rookie Josh Giddey, the team leader in both rebounds and assists. Coach Mark Daigneault was also absent last night. All these absences, coupled with the fact they played last night, means OKC is very likely to be blown out tonight in Phoenix. The Suns are hoping to avert what would be their first three-game losing streak of the season. After losing Christmas Day to Golden State, they fell at the buzzer to Memphis on Monday. The Suns’ last win came against the Thunder, 113-101, back on 12/23. We think the final margin will be a lot larger tonight as the favorite is hungry and more motivated this time. They’d just beaten the Lakers the previous time they faced the Thunder. Phoenix is pretty clearly one of the three best teams in the NBA this season. We’d consider Oklahoma City among the three worst. This promises to get ugly in a hurry. Play on PHOENIX

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This is an 8* on ALABAMA 

Tennessee is coming off a very impressive win over Arizona last week, so they’ve got to be feeling pretty good about themselves heading into the SEC opener at Alabama. But the Crimson Tide are ranked in the Top 20 as well. It’s been a bit of a shaky December in Tuscaloosa with the Tide losing two of its last three games, including one-point setback to Davidson in their last game. But this is an Alabama team that has beaten both Gonzaga and Houston this year. You probably aren’t going to find a team that has a better two wins on its resume. The Crimson Tide’s recent issues on the defensive end - they’ve given up 79 or more points in four of the last five games - should only serve as motivation for tonight’s game. Teams are still only shooting 43.1% against the Tide for the year and 39.3% here in Tuscaloosa. The Tide have been great at defending the three-point line as well. At home, they allow just 26.3% of attempts to be made from behind the arc. Tennessee has played just one true road game so far and that was at Colorado. The Volunteers have not shot the ball well outside of Knoxville as they were held to 53 and 52 points in neutral court losses to Villanova and Texas Tech. This is a good spot to jump on Bama. Play on ALABAMA

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This is a 10* on SACRAMENTO

Laying points with Sacramento might sound a bit dicey, but we are expecting an inspired effort tonight from the Kings after interim head coach Alvin Gentry called Sunday “the most disappointed I’ve been in 34 years in the NBA.” The Kings were outscored 78-52 in the second half by Memphis as they lost a third straight game by 15 or more points. But tonight they are welcoming in Oklahoma City. Despite four wins in its last five games and being 6-0 ATS in their last six, the Thunder remain one of the worst teams in the NBA. They are last in the NBA in scoring and get outscored by 11.8 points/game on the road. So expect the rare, comfortable win for Sacramento on Tuesday. The Kings are also looking to avenge a two-point road loss from last month. That game in OKC saw them blow a 14-point halftime lead. Play on SACRAMENTO

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This is a 10* on YALE

It’s been two weeks since Yale took the court. The favorites to win the Ivy League this year have suffered through a disappointing start to 2021-22, going just 6-7 in their first 13 games. They lost at home to Monmouth two weeks ago and you can bet the Bulldogs have been seething ever since. Tonight, they find themselves on the opposite side of the country, playing St. Mary’s, who is 11-3 SU and gearing up for conference play. The Gaels will host 12-1 San Francisco on New Year’s Day and there’s a good chance that the players & coaches might be more focused on that game than they are this one. So laying double digits in this spot seems like a dicey proposition. We know that St. Mary’s is 8-0 at home and only gives up 55.9 points/game. But this is too many points vs. a good Yale team that will be motivated, trying to avoid a third straight loss. Play on YALE

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This is a 10* on PORTLAND

Portland has just three wins in its last 14 games. But at least they’re at home where they started the year out on a 10-1 tear. With Thursday’s game vs. Brooklyn postponed, the Blazers have had five days off to prepare for Dallas tonight. The Mavericks turned in a game effort Christmas night vs. Utah, only losing by four as 13.5 point underdogs. But they continue to be very undermanned with Luka Doncic, Tim Hardaway Jr and three others in protocol. Portland is also without five players, but at least they’ve got Damian Lillard, who has averaged 38 points on 54.8% shooting (48.4% on threes) over his past three games. Like Portland, Dallas has been slipping of late, dropping four of its last five games. So we’ve got two struggling teams that will be short-handed Monday night. We side with the home team due to Lillard and the fact they are better rested. The Mavs’ only road win in the last 17 days came at Oklahoma City. Play on PORTLAND

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This is an 8* on SYRACUSE

Syracuse will be looking to end a two-game losing streak when it welcomes Brown to the Carrier Dome on Monday. Those two losses for the Orange both came to old Big East rivals. First, it was Villanova and then it was Georgetown. It’s also been 16 days since Jim Boeheim’s team took the court. It’s been a 17-day layoff for Brown, who is coming off a five-point loss to Vermont. Before that, the Bears had won and covered four in a row, though none of the teams they beat were as good as Syracuse. The key here is who will get off to a better start? Rust could certainly be a factor for both teams. We believe the home side is better equipped to handle the situation. Something we should mention from the loss to Georgetown is that the Orange led by 10 at halftime. Boeheim has five players on the roster, one of which is his son, averaging at least 12 points/game. Brown has only one player that averages that many. The Orange have been scoring a lot at home thus far and are just too potent offensively for their Ivy League opposition. Play on SYRACUSE

This is a 10* on DENVER

Add Paul George’s name to the list of Clippers who won’t be in action Sunday. Los Angeles was already without Marcus Morris Sr, Reggie Jackson, Isaiah Hartenstein, Luke Kennard and Jason Preston and of course Kawhi Leonard, who hasn’t played at all this season. Looking at that list of players, only Kennard has a shot to play tonight. The Clippers did somehow pick up a win on Wednesday, but tonight’s effort should more closely resemble the team that had lost three in a row before that. Meanwhile, Denver should be really motivated after losing to Charlotte on Thursday, a game in which it had a 17-point lead going into the fourth quarter. That was the Nuggets second straight loss and third in the last four games. Nikola Jokic is still playing well though, averaging 26.2 points and 13.1 rebounds his L10 games. He went for 29-21 on Thursday. The Nuggets are a lot closer to “full strength” than the Clippers are right now and that makes them very attractive here in a game they’ll desperately want to win. Play on DENVER

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This is a 10* on GOLDEN STATE

This is our best matchup on Christmas Day. The two best teams in the West face off as the 26-5 Suns host the 26-6 Warriors. The last time they met, we took the Warriors laying 6.5 at home. They covered for us in a 118-96 win and in the process ended Phoenix’s 18-game win streak. That is one of only two losses the Suns have suffered in the last 27 games. Despite them potentially not being at full strength for Saturday, we again will side with Golden State, this time as our 10* Game of the Month. As long as Steph Curry and Draymond Green are both healthy, and they are, the Warriors should not be getting this many points from anybody. They have a better statistical profile than the Suns and the players that are potentially going to be absent (Poole, Lee, Wiggins) collectively aren’t worth more than 1-2 points to the spread.  Grab the points. Play on GOLDEN STATE

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This is an 8* on PHOENIX

Oklahoma City has won three in a row. That’s not a sentence we anticipated writing. The Thunder defeated the Nuggets on Wednesday night, 108-94, a game where we were on the wrong side. We’ll again be on the opposite side of the Thunder here tonight, only this time, look for us to be right. Phoenix is clearly the “real deal” having won 24 of its last 26 games including a four-game win streak heading into tonight. The Suns have covered the spread in all four wins as well, winning by an average of more than 18 points per game. Each of the last three wins have been by 18 or more. The Thunder are still one of the league’s bottom teams and have been outscored by more than 20 points/game when playing with zero rest. Play on PHOENIX

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This is an 10* on ILLINOIS

This game takes place in St. Louis and is known as the “Braggin Rights Game.” Last year, in the midst of the pandemic, a decision was made to “flip a coin” for home court advantage. Missouri won the coin toss and then the game, 81-78 as a 3.5 point underdog. You can bet Illinois remembers that and will be out for revenge Wednesday night. This Fighting Illini team isn’t as strong as the one that earned a #1 seed in last year’s NCAA Tournament. But they are a lot better than Missouri, who comes in at 6-5 with losses to the likes of Kansas City and Liberty. The Tigers also got blown out by 37 against Kansas earlier in the month. Illinois’ only loss this month came against an Arizona team that is among the very best in America. We’re a bit perplexed that the Illini aren’t in the Top 25. The revenge angle definitely matters here and we look for the Illini to make a big statement. It promises to be a dark day for Missouri athletics as we’re also fading the football team in the Armed Forces Bowl. Play on ILLINOIS

This is a 10* on DENVER

Oklahoma City just picked up a win, which is not something that happens all that often. We had them plus the points on Monday as they beat Memphis 102-99 in a huge revenge spot. Remember that the Grizzlies had previously handed OKC the largest loss in NBA history (73 points) back on December 2nd. Even more rare is the fact the Thunder have now won two straight games. They also beat the Clippers 104-103 on Saturday. Since winning four in a row in early November, the Thunder have not strung together more than two straight wins at any point. So tonight is a good time to fade them. Denver, who is also coming off an upset win, has had the last four days off. The Nuggets were supposed to play in Brooklyn Sunday, but the Nets’ COVID outbreak had other ideas. In their last game, Denver put up 133 points against Atlanta. Over their last six contests, the Nuggets are scoring almost 120 points/game. If they can maintain that average, then it’s “smooth sailing” tonight. Oklahoma City can’t score even close to 120. They are last in the league at 99.2 points/game. Honestly, the Nuggets won’t even need 120 to cover here. They swept the season series last year and OKC never scored more than 101 in any of those three games. Play on DENVER

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This is a 10* on 'NOVA

Xavier takes an 11-1 record into Philly tonight. The Musketeers have won seven straight games and already pulled three upsets this year. They did not cover the spread in their last game, however. As 11-point favorites, Xavier could only beat Marquette 80-71. It’s much tougher opposition on Tuesday. We say that knowing full well that Villanova has lost two straight games, one to #1 Baylor and the other to Creighton. Both those losses were on the road though. Poor shooting was the culprit in each loss. Nova made only 22.2% of its field goal attempts when they faced Baylor. They were “up” to 33.3% vs. Creighton. From three-point range, they went a combined 10 of 50 in the two games. At home, that’s not going to happen. The Wildcats have averaged 90.7 points in their three previous home games. Xavier has lost seven in a row here and failed to cover the spread in all seven losses. With four losses already on this season’s resume, Nova can’t afford another. Look for a strong effort at both ends tonight. Lay it! Play on VILLANOVA

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This is a 10* on OKC

Memphis has gone a very impressive 10-2 so far without Ja Morant. But one of those two losses was last night, 105-100 to Portland as 4.5 point home favorites). Now the Grizzlies are set to play again, without rest, Monday vs. Oklahoma City. Since the Morant injury, there’s been just one time the Grizzlies were asked to play back to back nights. On that occasion, they lost the first game but came back to win the second, 108-95 over the Lakers. But when analyzing this win streak, one can see the oddsmakers haven’t really taken the Grizzlies all that seriously. Now they (the oddsmakers) have them laying a big number tonight vs. Oklahoma City. Of course, everyone remembers the last time these teams played. Memphis won in record-setting fashion, 152-79. It was the largest single game margin of victory in NBA history. Tonight is the Thunder’s shot at revenge. OKC just beat the Clippers on Saturday. They are 3-3 straight up since that humiliating defeat earlier this month. We won’t say they’ll win tonight, but take the points as Memphis is in a bad spot and unlikely to continue playing as well as they have without Morant. Play on OKLAHOMA CITY

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This is an 8* on UGA

Georgia has had their problems recently, but should roll tonight, at home vs. Western Carolina. The Bulldogs are looking to put an 80-67 loss to George Mason behind them. The loss, which took place Saturday, was here in Athens and the ‘Dawgs were 2.5 point favorites. Falling into a 14-0 hole to start the game was the “death knell” as UGA was playing for the first time in 11 days and first time since losing a second starter to a season-ending injury. We understand the current “state of the program” may not sound great in Athens, but this Western Carolina team that’s paying a visit on Monday is pretty bad. The Catamounts have not played in over a week. Their last game was a one-point loss to UNC-Asheville. Georgia still did a good job on the offensive glass vs. George Mason, but somehow came away with only seven second chance points. Their size advantage in this matchup should result in a lot more inside scoring, whether it’s on first or second chance opportunities. Western Carolina relies heavily on the three, but Georgia’s size will make them struggle in that area tonight. The Bulldogs beat Memphis here earlier this month. There’s no reason to think they can’t blow out this Western Carolina team. Play on GEORGIA

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This is a 10* on MIAMI

Playing shorthanded, the Heat were still able to go to Philadelphia and win the other night. So winning at Orlando here doesn’t seem like a big ask. The Magic are quite bad this year, which was to be expected. But perhaps things have gone even more poorly than anticipated? The team’s record is 5-24 and they have the worst point differential in the league right now. Since Nov 17, the Magic have won just one game. They’ve lost six in a row, which is one shy of the losing streak they were on at the end of November. So it’s 13 losses in the last 14 games. The Heat have taken it to the Magic recently by winning each of the last three matchups, including a 17-point victory back in October. Orlando’s rotation is depleted now, just like Miami’s, the key is we believe the Heat are more apt to deal with the absences. Miami has won three of its last four games, beating Milwaukee, Chicago and Philly, all top tier Eastern Conference teams. Surely they can beat the lowly Magic by more than the oddsmakers are asking for here. Play on MIAMI

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This is an 8* on DRAKE

Drake looks to cover the spread for the first time since 11/14! The Bulldogs are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games, although they’ve won four of them straight up. The level of competition has been stronger than what they’ll face here, a Jackson State team that’s 2-8 and has been to less than 40 points in two different games. The schedule has been murderous so far for Jackson State as they have played nothing but true road games. This is the 11th in a row to start the year as well as the third in the last five days. The Tigers have to be running out gas at this point. They’ve done a decent job of covering the spread (7-3 ATS), but at some point a team has nothing left to give. That’s what we expect the case will be tonight for the road team. Jackson State only averages 56.3 points/game. Drake is averaging 81.3 points/game at home and at some point the Bulldogs HAVE to cover the spread. Why not tonight? Play on DRAKE

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This is a 10* on DENVER

Denver has a 12-game win streak over Minnesota that dates back to the 2018-19 season. They swept the last three season series and won 93-91 (as a 1.5-point dog) in the Twin Cities back in October. Now the Nuggets are dealing with a lot of illness and injuries at the moment. But that didn’t prevent them from building a 33-point lead over Washington in the last game. Before that, they went to San Antonio and won by 15. Be aware that the game vs. the Wizards only got close after Nikola Jokic got ejected. Denver has been outstanding at the defensive end in home games this season, giving up only 99.4 points/game. The Timberwolves come in shooting just 40.4 percent their last five games and 42.4% for the year. Prior to a 116-111 win in Portland the other night, the T’wolves had dropped five in a row, three by double digits. Their recent defensive efforts have been terrible with eight of the last nine games seeing them give up 110 or more points. Lay the points in this one. Play on DENVER

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This is a 10* on GSW

Steph Curry will look to become the NBA’s all-time leader in three-pointers made when his Warriors visit New York on Tuesday. Curry is only two threes shy of Ray Allen’s record entering this game. Considering he made five last night, it would seem like a lock that history will be made tonight in Madison Square Garden. You have to figure Curry’s teammates will want to make the record-setting day a victorious one as well. Laying only a few points here to the struggling Knicks seems to be a “no-brainer.” This line is relatively short because Golden State was in action Monday. They beat Indiana 102-100, but it was the third game in a row where they did not cover the spread. Seeing as the Warriors lead the league in point differential, a win by more than what the oddsmakers are calling for tonight doesn’t sound so far-fetched. The Knicks aren’t as good as the Pacers. NY has dropped three straight games and six of its last seven. At home, they lost by 15 to the Bucks on Sunday. It was their third double digit loss in the past five games. Don’t overthink this one. Play on GOLDEN STATE

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This is a 10* on LSU

LSU is still undefeated and should win in a romp tonight. Now you probably already knew that by looking at this pointspread. It is quite high. But Northwestern State truly has zero shot at being competitive in Baton Rouge. The Demons are 2-8, both wins coming in non-lined games. They beat Dallas Christian Saturday. But not all the news was good. A flu bug has made its way through the Northwestern State locker room, affecting both players and coaches. Even at full strength, Northwestern State could not compete here. With players out, tonight’s game should get ugly in a hurry. There have been three games this season that the Demons have lost by 30 or more points. One was to Houston, the only top 15 team they’ve faced. LSU isn’t in the top 15, but probably should be as they’re off to their best start in over 20 years at 9-0. The Tigers’ six home wins have been by more than 30 points/game and they’ve covered the spread every time. They should mirror Houston’s 41 point win over Northwestern State and continue their climb up the rankings. Play on LSU

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This is an 8* on PHOENIX

Thanks to Golden State’s loss Saturday night, Phoenix (21-4) now has the best record in the NBA. The Suns are on the road tonight, facing the Clippers. This is obviously a big game for both teams. But with the Suns having won 20 of their last 21 games, how can you not like them laying such a short number? Defensively, they are one of the best teams in the NBA, allowing only 104.4 points/game and 43.4% shooting. Only Golden State allows fewer points per possession. The Suns are also a top five offensive team in the league. This is where they are vastly superior to the Clippers, who are only 24th in offensive efficiency. Phoenix doesn’t have Devin Booker right now, but the Clippers are playing without both Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. This is going to be the Clippers’ 9th game in the last 16 days. Phoenix has had a much “lighter schedule” of late. The only team to beat the Suns since October is Golden State. Without George and Leonard, the Clippers can’t do what the Warriors did. LA is only 6-12 ATS at home this year. Play on PHOENIX

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This is an 8* on PORTLAND

Portland is looking to bounce back from an upset loss at the hands of VMI ten days ago. The Pilots were five point favorites but lost to the Keydets 90-82. Before that, they had won seven of eight with the only loss coming by three to Montana State. They’d also covered five straight going into the VMI matchup. We like the home team here because they are well rested while visiting Cal Poly is playing a second road game in three days. Cal Poly was able to shoot 54.5% from three in its 61-58 upset over Portland State on Sunday. The Mustangs went into that game as 3.5 point underdogs. It was their second close game in a row after losing by one at San Diego on December 5th. This will be CP’s fourth consecutive road game to start the month. The win at Portland State on Saturday was the first win on the trip. Don’t see them winning two in a row as the three-point shooting from the last game can’t be matched (CP shooting only 30% from three for the year) and Portland’s offense (85.2 points/game) is just too much. CP has scored more than 61 only twice against Division I opponents this season. Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 10* on GSW

The Warriors are short road favorites tonight in Philadelphia and we’ve got to lay the points. Golden State is clearly the best team in basketball right now. There’s not a single metric that suggests otherwise. They’ve lost only four games, three by five or less and the other to a Suns team that was on an 18-game win streak. They immediately avenged that loss to the Suns with a 22-point win. The Warriors last two wins have also been by double digits. They beat Orlando by 31 and Portland by 10. Those were at home, but the Warriors are also 7-2 on the road. Golden State is outscoring teams by basically 13 points/game. So that’s why we’ve got zero hesitation about laying this number. Philadelphia hasn’t covered any of its previous three games. Twice they could barely beat an undermanned Charlotte team and then they got crushed by Utah here at home. The Jazz are probably the second best team in the league right now. What Thursday told us is that Philly is not ready for this level of competition. The Sixers aren’t just 3-8 ATS at home, they are only 5-6 straight up. Steph Curry could set the NBA record for most career three-pointers made tonight. Play on GOLDEN STATE

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This is an 8* on MICH STATE

Fresh off handing Minnesota its first loss, Michigan State returns to East Lansing to play host Penn State on Saturday. The Spartans come in at 8-2. They were seven-point favorites on Wednesday, despite the fact their opponents were undefeated. Consider this a “lesson learned” as we made the mistake of fading Sparty at Minnesota. Tom Izzo's team came out red hot and took a 37-24 lead into halftime. Penn State is not nearly as strong as the Golden Gophers, so with this game being a home game, expect MSU to roll. Penn State’s only other true road game this year resulted in a 25-point loss at UMass. Since then, they are just 4-3. The Nittany Lions lost the Big 10 opener 76-64 to Ohio State before bouncing back with an easy win over Wagner earlier this week. This is a rivalry that Michigan State has dominated with wins in 39 of the 48 all-time meetings. The Spartans already have four wins over Top 40 teams and are 4th in the country in defensive efficiency. Play on MICHIGAN STATE

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This is a 10* on DET

The Pistons have lost 10 in a row. But at least they were able to force overtime in their last game, which they lost at the buzzer. The 119-116 loss to the Wizards marked the fourth time that the Pistons lost by five or less during the current losing skid. Tonight they are catching a decent number from a New Orleans team that certainly can’t be labeled as “good.” The Pelicans also lost in overtime Wednesday, 120-114 to Denver, leaving them with the same number of losses that Detroit has (20). We think that this is a good spot to take the points as Detroit is 4-2 ATS in its last six games and they were favored one of the two times they failed to cover the spread. This is just the third time this season that New Orleans will be favored to win a game. They’ve gone 0-2 ATS the previous two times, losing both games outright. The Pelicans are also 0-7 ATS this season when facing a team that has a losing record. We’ve got to play against the home team on sheer principle in this one. New Orleans should never be this large of a favorite. Play on DETROIT

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This is a 10* on L'ville

DePaul is off to a pretty impressive 7-1 start. The Blue Demons’ one loss came against Loyola Chicago and that was by only four points. Following that first loss, they rebounded with an impressive 20-point win over Duquesne earlier this week. The Blue Demons’ ATS record matches their SU record as the one time they failed to cover was in an 84-80 win over Western Illinois where they were 9.5 point favorites. Tonight they are underdogs for just the third time this season. While it may seem tempting to take DePaul plus the points in this situation, they are outclassed playing at Louisville. The Cardinals have dominated the head to head series with the Blue Demons, winning 21 of the last 23 meetings. They’re 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS against them as the home team. L’ville has two losses but has also played a much more challenging schedule than DePaul has. In their last game, the Cardinals went to NC State and won the ACC opener. They also hold wins over Mississippi State and Maryland in tournament play. Play on LOUISVILLE

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This is an 8* on IOWA

We’ve got an unranked team laying points on the road to a Top 25 opponent that’s also undefeated. That’s quite the statement by the linesmakers. And we agree that Iowa is the better side in this Thursday night matchup. Give Iowa State credit for being 8-0, especially since they’ve been underdogs in three of the previous four games. They pulled upsets over Xavier, Memphis and Creighton. But none of those teams are as strong as the Hawkeyes, who are seeking to end a two-game losing streak tonight. Iowa was 7-0 before facing Purdue, who is now the top ranked team in the country. That was a two-point game in the final three minutes. Then it was a four-point loss to Illinois on Monday. Both those Big 10 opponents are much stronger than Iowa State. Not to be disrespectful to the Cyclones, but the only reason they are ranked is because they are undefeated. They’ve yet to face a team as good as Iowa. This is going to be their first loss of the season and we will lay the points. Play on IOWA

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This is a 10* on PURDUE

For the first time in program history, Purdue will take the court as the #1 ranked team in the country. That obviously puts the proverbial “bulls-eye” on the Boilermakers’ back, but expect THEM to be the more motivated group on Thursday night as they travel to Piscataway to face Rutgers. Not only does Purdue want to prove that it deserves it’s #1 ranking, but they’ve surprisingly lost the last three times they’ve taken on the Scarlet Knights. Coach Matt Painter has made sure to remind his team of the three-game losing streak. Rutgers is just simply no match for a motivated Purdue team that is #1 in the country in offensive efficiency, averaging 90.5 points/game. The Scarlet Knights just lost to Illinois by 35, a game where they were dominated on the boards. Being only 4-4 has to be a major disappointment to coach Steve Pikiell as Rutgers was the favorite in every game but the one at Illinois. Star guard Baker is still dealing with a hamstring injury and a flu bug has hit the team as well. Purdue should roll here. Play on PURDUE

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This is a 10* on MINN

There are still 12 undefeated teams left in College Basketball. That number is likely to decrease very soon. Five of those 12 unbeatens are in action tonight, two (Arizona & Wyoming) against one another. San Francisco (9-0) is favored, but you’ve also got Weber State (8-0) and Minnesota (7-0) taking the court as underdogs. While this game vs. Michigan State may seem like a logical end point for Minnesota’s unbeaten start, what we are seeing here is a great opportunity to grab the points. At home, the Golden Gophers shouldn’t be getting this many points from a Michigan State team that has two losses. Now those losses were to Kansas and Baylor, so you can’t really fault Sparty for not being unbeaten like Minnesota still is. But the Gophers did just win two tough road games against Pitt and Mississippi State. They were 11.5 point dogs at Miss State and led by as much as 14 points. Being back home - where they are giving up just 49.7 points/game - is huge for this team. Michigan State lost by 25 points here last season. Take the points with Minnesota. Play on MINNESOTA

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This is an 8* on WASH

Washington desperately needs a win here. The Wizards have lost their last three games and played pretty poorly against Indiana Monday night. While they only ended up losing by six points, the Wizards let the Pacers shoot 52.4 percent and were behind by 10 after the first quarter. At no point in the game did Washington hold a lead of more than three points. Now when you’re this desperate for a win, looking across the court and seeing the Detroit Pistons is definitely a good thing. The Pistons have the worst record in the league (4-19) and are on a nine-game losing streak. Four of their five starters are either rookies or in their second year in the league. Perhaps a new low was established on Monday when the Pistons blew an 18-point lead and lost to Oklahoma City. That Thunder team was coming off a record-setting 73-point loss. Detroit was actually favored to beat OKC. It was only the second time this season that they were favored to win a game. They’re not favored here, but the line is short enough that we will lay it. Play on WASHINGTON

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This is a 10* on TENNESSEE

It’s the Big 12 vs. the SEC on Tuesday as #13 Tennessee takes Texas Tech as part of the “Jimmy V Classic” in New York City. We’re surprised that this line is so low, considering that the Vols are ranked. Also, Texas Tech is coming off its first loss of the season, 72-68 at Providence, in what was the Red Raiders first true road game. That was six days ago. Tennessee played over the weekend as they went to Colorado and won 69-54 as six-point favorites. The Vols only loss so far was to #6 Villanova. All six of their wins have been by double digits. We figure this one will be as well. Tennessee is third in the country in defensive efficiency right now and just held Colorado to 34.5% shooting on Saturday. Texas Tech does force a lot of turnovers, but also turns it over a lot themselves. Whereas the Vols have two quality wins already (North Carolina, Colorado), the Red Raiders have nothing of the sort. Play on TENNESSEE

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This is an 10* on MIL

Cleveland has been one of the real surprising teams in the NBA so far, but we don’t like their chances at Milwaukee tonight. The Cavs took a one-point loss, at home, against Utah on Sunday. That saw them battle back from a 15-point deficit in the fourth quarter, only to come up one bucket short. Now they must hit the road to face another of the league’s top teams, without rest. The Bucks have won 9 of 10 and on Saturday downed Miami by a score of 124-102. That was despite not having Giannis Antetokounmpo, who has missed the last two games. But the defense from the NBA Champions continues to be sensational as only one of their last ten opponents has been able to shoot better than 43.5%. Milwaukee has beaten Cleveland seven straight times and tonight we look for them to end the Cavs’ 7-game ATS win streak. Play on MILWAUKEE

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This is a 10* on TOR

The Wizards and Raptors have already played twice.The road team won both times. Washington won here in Toronto on Opening Night 98-83. It wasn’t nearly as low scoring when the Raptors won in D.C 109-100 on Dec 3. This time we like the home team to prevail. While the Raptors have struggled on their home floor, going just 3-8, they did beat Milwaukee here on Thursday. That was a better result than what Washington did on Friday, losing to Cleveland 116-101. The Raptors have defended well recently, holding the last two opponents under 40% shooting. The Wizards haven’t been all that impressive away from home, going 4-7 ATS and scoring 101.8 points/game. Defensively, they were ravaged by the pick and roll against Cleveland. So Toronto has its blueprint for success. Playing their fourth straight game at home, the Raptors should have no excuses tonight. Play on TORONTO

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This is a 10* on ARIZONA

Arizona is a strong team and should easily be able to defeat Pac 12 rival Oregon State by double digits. At 6-0, the Wildcats are one of 12 unbeaten teams left in College Basketball. They are one of the highest ranked as well with #4 Baylor and #10 Arkansas the only undefeated teams above them in the top 25. The Wildcats haven’t just been winning either. They’ve been blowing out every opponent. Their six wins have been by an average of 33.8 points/game. There was one close game, a four-win over Wichita State, but all others have been by at least 18 points. The last time ‘Zona was on the court, they blew out Sacramento State 105-59 as a 29-point favorite. In addition to being the conference opener, this will be the Wildcats' first true road game. They could not have asked for a better opponent as Oregon State has dropped seven in a row since opening the season with a 73-64 victory over Portland State. The Beavers have certainly had their share of close defeats - three by three points or less - but they also just lost by 12 at Cal on Thursday. Arizona has been off for a full week and played just one game in the last two weeks. They are rested and simply better. Last year’s trip here to Corvallis resulted in a 34-point win. The home team has no chance here. Play on ARIZONA

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This is a 10* on GOLDEN STATE

We’ve got quite the showdown Friday night in the NBA as the 19-3 Suns, winners of 18 straight games, take on the 18-3 Warriors. Now these teams just met, Tuesday in Phoenix, and the Suns came out ahead by the score of 104-96. Golden State shot a season-low 41.9% in that game and matched a season-high with 23 turnovers. But we think they are deserved favorites for the rematch. First off, this time the game is in San Francisco. The Warriors are 11-1 at home and averaging 116.7 points/game. Secondly, the Suns are at a clear disadvantage having played another game last night. Golden State has not played since Tuesday. While it was a relatively easy 114-103 win for the Suns on Thursday, over the Pistons, things will not be that easy here in the second night of a back to back. Phoenix shot 54% against Detroit, including a blistering 76% in the second quarter, got 48 bench points and had seven players finish in double figures. Don’t expect any of that to happen again tonight. Leading scorer Devin Booker got injured Tuesday, missed last night’s game and isn’t expected to play here. Meanwhile, Steph Curry should break out after being held to 4 of 21 shooting in the last game. Look for the Warriors to end Phoenix’s record win streak and lay the points. Play on GOLDEN STATE

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This is a 10* on PORTLAND 

We’re a little shocked at how low this spread is. The shock is for two reasons. One, San Antonio comes in on its first win streak of the season. Before this, they’d never even won two straight games all year. So we see another win being highly unlikely, especially because they are playing in Portland tonight. That brings us to the second reason for being shocked about the line. The Blazers have been a great home team thus far, winning 10 of 11 games here and covering the spread nine times. We took them the other night when they were hosting Detroit and that ended up being an easy 110-92 win as 9.5 point favorites. It was a game that the Blazers basically controlled from start to finish. They led by as many as 26. Now Damian Lillard is still out (for at least 10 days), but considering how the Blazers looked on Tuesday without him, we don’t think that’s going to be a problem here. The Spurs aren’t a very good team and winning for a third straight time as underdogs seems unlikely. On the road, they are just 2-7 and they average less than 100 points. Portland is 5-1 ATS its last six games vs. San Antonio. Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 10* on N CAROLINA

At one time, Michigan was ranked as high as #4 in the country. But Juwan Howard’s team has already lost twice (to Seton Hall and Arizona) and hardly looked impressive as 21-point favorites last week in a 64-54 win over Tarleton State. Tonight finds the Wolverines playing their first “true” road game of the year and it’s in Chapel Hill, part of the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge. So far the Big 10 has largely dominated this event, taking six of the eight head to head matchups, including Ohio State beating #1 Duke last night. North Carolina is 0-6 ATS coming into this game, tying them with William & Mary for the most ATS losses without a win this season. But getting this game at home is pretty huge for the Tar Heels. Michigan is down to #24 in the rankings and turns the ball over too much, even when facing bad teams. They turned it over 20 times vs. Prairie View A&M and 21 times vs. Tarleton State. If UNC, who comes in averaging 83.2 points/game, can be disruptive enough at the defensive end, then they will pull the “upset.” The Tar Heels are off their best defensive effort of the season as they held UNC Asheville to 53 points on 26.5% shooting a week ago. Take the points. Play on NORTH CAROLINA

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This is a 10* on PORTLAND

Portland’s road woes continued last night as they were blown out in Utah, losing 129-107 as 7.5-point underdogs. That completed an 0-3 road trip for the Blazers, who are now 1-10 (SU and ATS) for the year away from home. But they have been a completely different team at home where they are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS. Starting tonight, they will play eight of their next nine games in Portland, including the next four. Even better is that the first home game (tonight) is against a 4-16 Detroit team that stinks no matter where it plays. The Pistons have lost their last six games. While many of them have been close, this is going to be their fourth road game in seven days, all of them taking place out West. At home, Portland is scoring 12 more points per game than what they allow. Detroit, who is one of three teams not even averaging 100 points/game, gives up 110 points/game on the road. Look for the home team to win this one by double digits. Play on PORTLAND

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This is an 8* on GONZAGA

Gonzaga just suffered what was only their second loss since the start of LAST season. Duke beat them 84-81 in Las Vegas Friday night. Of course, the only other Gonzaga loss in the last two years came in April’s National Championship Game against Baylor. They obviously did not get a chance to immediately bounce back from that one. But they can bounce back here. Considering who the opponent is, this could get ugly in a hurry. Tarleton State isn’t any good to begin with and they are in the wrong place at the wrong time as far as we’re concerned. The last four times Gonzaga has been off a loss, they have covered the spread in the next game. Tarleton State has yet to even beat a Division I opponent this season (0-5). The Texans will have no answers here for a team that beat UCLA by 20 last week. Gonzaga already has three wins by 34 or more points this year. Play on GONZAGA

This is an 8* on BAYLOR

This is the Final in the Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament with #6 Baylor taking on Michigan State. Baylor was able to overcome a bit of a sloppy first half (13 turnovers) yesterday and beat VCU 69-61, just barely covering the 5.5 point spread. The Bears are 6-0 SU and 4-1-1 ATS. The only ATS loss came as 33 point favorites in the opening game. The opponent here is Michigan State, who upset UConn 64-60 (as 2.5 point dogs) on Thursday, thanks to scoring the game’s final nine points. The Spartans are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS. The only team they lost to was Kansas (first game) and they also failed to cover Wednesday vs. Loyola Chicago. This is the third game in three days for both Baylor and Michigan State. Sparty’s two games have been decided by a total of six points. After two close calls like that, we’re just not sure they’ll have enough left in the tank to survive a vastly superior opponent. Baylor has won 31 straight non-conference games. Yesterday was probably the Bears’ weakest performance to date and they still won fairly comfortably. MSU is still only 2-8-1 ATS its last 11 neutral site games. Play on BAYLOR

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This is a 10*  on ATLANTA

It’s been quite the difference when it comes to home vs. away for the Atlanta Hawks. The team has captured five straight, all at home, where it is now 8-1 on the young season. But on the road, they are 1-8 SU and an even worse 0-9 ATS. It’s back on the road tonight for a date with San Antonio. Given the extraordinary split we’ve seen thus far from the Hawks, you may be thinking now is the time to buck them. But facing one of the league’s worst teams should allow for their first ATS road win of 2021. The Spurs have lost five in a row while getting outscored by 13 points/game. Atlanta’s average margin of victory during the five game win streak is 14.2. So we’re looking at two teams at polar opposites of the spectrum here. The Spurs have only won four games so far, two of them coming against Orlando. A late rally Monday vs. Phoenix made the game appear closer than it actually was. Most of the way, it very much looked like San Antonio would be headed for its fourth double digit defeat in the last 10 days. The Spurs are 0-5 ATS their last five times playing with exactly one day of rest. Play on ATLANTA

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This is a 10* on TEXAS

Texas is 3-1 and ranked #8 in the country. That one loss came to Gonzaga, so no one is going to fault them for that. Tonight the Longhorns host an undefeated Cal Baptist team that is playing on the road for the first time in 2021. The Lancers’ previous five games - against San Francisco St, Miss Valley, Jackson St, San Jose St and Northern Colorado have simply not adequately prepared them for what’s in store here. Texas is giving up just 47.3 points/game when not facing Gonzaga this year. They play at one of the slowest tempos in the nation, but have an efficient offense that is 16th in points per possession. On Saturday against San Jose State, the ‘Horns led by 18 just nine minutes into the game and by 30 at halftime. They ended up winning by 34 and held SJSU to 31.9 percent shooting from the floor. Even more impressive is that Texas forced 27 turnovers and had a season-high 16 steals. At the same time, they connected at just over 51% at the offensive end and had 36 points in the paint. The home team is simply going to overwhelm the opposition in this one. Play on TEXAS

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This is a 10* on NYK

So there’s no LeBron James tonight for the 9-9 Lakers, who visit Madison Square Garden to face the Knicks. James is suspended for getting into a fight with the Pistons’ Isaiah Stewart on Sunday. The Lakers went on to win in Detroit, but were actually behind by 15 entering the fourth quarter against one of the worst teams in the NBA. That doesn’t bode well for tonight. The Lakers have lost six of their last 10 games, most of those without James, who had been out with an abdominal strain. The Knicks, who are 4-7 their past 11 games, thought they had a win Sunday when they were leading the Bulls going into the fourth. But they gave up 37 points in the final quarter to lose 109-103 as 5.5 point road underdogs. Expect New York to play better at home tonight - for a full four quarters - and take advantage of the Lakers not having LeBron. On the road, the Lakers have been very bad defensively, giving up 117.3 points/game. Play on NEW YORK

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This is a 10* on CHI

Tied with Brooklyn for first place in the East, the Bulls should continue to roll Monday when they host Indiana. Chicago is 12-5 and has won six of its eight home games. They came from behind to win last night, 109-103 over the Knicks. Because it’s the second night of a back to back, oddsmakers have set a low number here and we think that’s a mistake. Indiana is 2-9 on the road. While they only lost by three in their last road game, they were actually down 25 at one point. That was against Charlotte. The Pacers did bounce back to defeat New Orleans on Saturday, but that was at home. The Bulls have covered both times they’ve been in a back to back this year, winning those two games by a combined 33 points. Lay the points in this one. Play on CHICAGO

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This is an 8* on HOUSTON

This is a first round matchup in the Maui Invitational (which is being played in Las Vegas). We’ve got Butler facing Houston, two programs that have been to Final Fours. Of course, it’s been a decade since Butler advanced that far. Houston was in the Final Four last year and bowed out to eventual National Champion Baylor in the Semifinal. The Cougars are ranked #15 in the poll right now and is 3-0. They just wasted Virginia 67-47 in their last game, which was six days ago. Butler lost the following day (Wednesday), 73-52 to Michigan State, and is now 3-1 on the year. Our view is that Butler just isn’t in Houston’s class. Houston leads all AAC teams with 10.3 three pointers made per game. Defensively, the Cougars are just as impressive. They held Virginia to 34.9% shooting and forced 17 turnovers. The game was never close as UH jumped out to an early 14-2 lead and was up 13 at halftime. They led by double digits the entire second half. As for Butler, the loss to Michigan State was their largest margin of defeat at home in 29 years. They shot 28.6% and had only eight assists. The size of the Spartans was clearly an issue and it should be the same thing here with Houston. This is a bad matchup at a bad time for Butler. Play on HOUSTON

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This is a 10* on GSW

Golden State is once again the best team in the league as they are 14-2. They’ve only been beaten once in regulation and perhaps the most impressive thing about them is that they are 12-4 against the spread. They are 10-1 SU/ATS L11 games and tonight host a Toronto team that will be playing its fourth straight road game and third in four nights. The Raptors snapped a three-game losing streak Friday in Sacramento. But they are outclassed here with Steph Curry set to return from a one-game absence. Curry sat out the Warriors’ 105-102 win in Detroit Friday. Though that game ended up being close, the Warriors led by 16 going into the fourth quarter. We know Detroit is bad, but the fact the Warriors were up 16 without their best player is still impressive. Golden State is winning at home by an average of 16.5 points/game and we just can’t see Toronto staying within the number in this one. Play on GOLDEN STATE

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This is a 10* on OHIO ST

In-state rivals play Wednesday in Cincinnati as Xavier hosts #17 Ohio State. As short home underdogs, the Musketeers are probably thinking upset here, but we like the Buckeyes to handle their business in their first “real” test of the 2021-22 season. So far OSU has gone through Akron, Niagara and Bowling Green. Their margins of victory have continued to grow, culminating in a 31-point triumph over BG on Monday. Ten players scored for the Buckeyes in that win, five finishing in double digits. The bench scored 39 points and the team shot over 50%. It was their best game to date. Xavier is 2-0 with wins over Niagara and Kent State. The Musketeers could only beat Niagara by three while OSU beat them by 10. While that’s just one common opponent, you’ve also got the fact that OSU is 9-1 ATS in its previous 10 road games. Xavier hasn’t shot the ball well so far and figures to get outworked on the glass. Play on OHIO STATE

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This a 10* on RHODE ISLAND

Rhode Island has been an 8.5-point favorite for both of their games thus far. They covered the spread each time, beating Boston U 71-62 and then Bryant 83-64. While that first game ended up being relatively close, at least as far as the pointspread was concerned, the Rams led the whole way and were never really threatened. It was a more complete performance in the second game with them blowing out Bryant in the second half. Over the last 15 minutes of the game, URI went on a 37-18 run. Boston College comes in at 3-0 and also covered the number in its first two games. But then they failed as 10-point favorites against Fairfield, winning only 72-64. This is the Eagles first time playing on the road. They are 0-4 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points the last two years. Rhode Island has won 20 of its previous 26 home games. Somebody is going to lose for the first time and we believe it will be BC as Rhode Island’s defense is #1 in the nation right now, holding teams to 30.6% shooting! Play on RHODE ISLAND

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This is a 10* on CREIGHTON

In-state rivals get set for their annual meeting as Creighton makes the drive from Omaha to Lincoln to take on Nebraska. Obviously, we know which school has more of a “national presence.” But when it comes to basketball, Creighton has taken over the Cornhusker State. While they trailed at halftime in both games, the Bluejays do enter this game at 2-0 on the young season. Nebraska is 1-1 and lucky not to be 0-2. After losing at home to Western Illinois last week, the ‘Huskers were down 10 early to Sam Houston State on Friday. That was also a home game. Creighton and Nebraska are a combined 0-4 ATS so far but the Bluejays have not been underdogs previous to this. The defense effort in their last game (just 44 points allowed) was the best by any Creighton team in eight seasons, at least against a D-I opponent. These teams played in Omaha last year and Creighton won by 24. Not enough has changed in a year to justify Nebraska being favored here. Play on CREIGHTON

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This is a 10* on PHOENIX

Phoenix, the Western Conference Champions from last season, once again finds itself as the hottest team in the NBA. The Suns have won eight in a row entering Monday and have covered the spread seven straight times. This has them at 9-3 for the year and the only team ahead of the Suns right now (in the West) is Golden State). Tonight the Suns head to Minnesota to face a Timberwolves team that has experienced very different results over its last eight games. The T’wolves are 1-7 straight up and against the spread since Oct 30 with five of the seven losses coming by double digits. Even though Phoenix played last night, we can’t see Minnesota keeping this game close. It’s not as if last night was a difficult game for the Suns; they won 115-89, their third straight double digit win. There’s just no reason not to lay this short number as the Timberwolves have failed to cover the last five times they’ve been an underdog. Play on PHOENIX

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This is a 9* on DENVER

We think Denver is the right side in this Western Conference NBA matchup. The Nuggets will be looking to wrap up a perfect 5-0 homestand tonight when they host Portland. The Blazers have not been good on the road so far, losing six of seven while being outscored by roughly 8.7 points per game. So laying the points doesn’t bother us. Not with Denver leading the league in scoring defense. Through 12 games, the Nuggets are allowing an average 98.3 points/game. There have been only three times they’ve allowed triple digits and if you take away the one time Utah scored 122 (it was the second night of a back to back for Denver), then the defensive numbers look even more phenomenal. At home, the Nuggets are giving up just 93.4 points/game. Nikola Jokic has recorded a triple double in the last two games he’s played. Play on DENVER

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This is a 10* on BOS

Cleveland is 8-5 and coming off a 20-point win, but we’re still a bit skeptical. The 20-point win last night was against the Pistons, who are one of the NBA’s worst teams. The Cavs are now 9-3-1 ATS overall, tied with the Warriors for the best mark in the league. But they’ve pulled out quite a few narrow wins so far, including three in a row by three points or less to start the month. We’re about to find out how “for real” Cleveland is as they host Boston tonight. The Celtics also won last night, needing OT to get by Milwaukee 122-113. It was their fourth win in five games. The Cavs do have the better record coming into tonight’s game, but oddsmakers still don’t respect them that much as they are underdogs at home. We’re going to lay the short number with Boston. Though they had to go to overtime to get the win last night, Cleveland is probably in worse shape heading into the second game of the back to back. They’re missing Colllin Sexton (who averaged 23.3 points/game last year), Kevin Love, Lauri Markkanen and possibly Lamar Stevens. Boston is pretty healthy coming into this game, save for the Jaylen Brown injury. Play on BOSTON

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This is a 10* on G'town

This is Georgetown’s first game. In case you’d forgotten, the Hoyas made an incredible run to the NCAA Tournament last March by winning the Big East Tournament as an 8-seed. They won four games in four days. However, it ended up being a short stay in the Big Dance as G’town was bounced in the opening round by Colorado, 96-73. A lot of the top talent from that team is now gone, but we still expect the Hoyas to handle their business here against Dartmouth. The Big Green have already played a game this season and it was a 72-57 loss to Boston College. They were never really in it as the halftime score was 42-19. Dartmouth shot just 37.5% overall from the field and 20.7% from behind the arc. As was the case with Iowa yesterday, we don’t think the dropoff with Georgetown will be quite as severe as the oddsmakers seem to. This should be a very easy opening game for the more talented side. Dartmouth hasn’t finished with a winning record in over 20 years. Georgetown is 7-0 ATS L7 home games against teams with a losing road record.  Play on GEORGETOWN

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This is a 10* on DAL

Dallas is off a loss while San Antonio is off a win. But with a 7-4 record, the Mavs are having the better overall start to the year. The Mavs went down in Chicago Wednesday night, losing 117-107 as they could not keep up in the second half. But they’d won three in a row prior to that loss with one of the wins coming here in San Antonio. The win was by a single point, 109-108, but Dallas didn’t even shoot the ball well. Expect them to tonight. The Spurs picked up just their fourth win of the year when they beat Sacramento 136-117 Wednesday night. They hit 18 threes in the win, something that you won’t see them do again anytime soon. The Spurs have yet to win two straight games this year and they lost to OKC the most recent time they were coming off a victory. San Antonio is actually 0-2 vs. Dallas this year as they also lost to them by five points back on Oct 28. They did cover the spread in both losses, but that won’t be the case here as the Mavericks have yet to lose two straight games this season. It all adds up to a third win over the Spurs and this time Dallas covers. Play on DALLAS

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This is a 10* on IOWA

UMKC (Kansas City) will really be up against it on Friday as they travel to Iowa City to face the heavily favored Hawkeyes. This is already the second game against a Big 10 team for UMKC. They lost to Minnesota by a score of 71-56 on Tuesday. In that game, the Roos did not cover the spread as they were only 6.5 point underdogs. Oddsmakers like their chances here even less and so do we. Iowa is not the same team they were last year (no Luke Garza) but should certainly “handle its business” in this game. The Hawkeyes scored 106 points in the season opener vs. Longwood, so there’s not going to be that big of a dropoff at the offensive end. Iowa did cover the number vs. Longwood, so they are now 23-9 ATS in their last 32 home games. This should be another big win for them as they look to start the season strong. Play on IOWA

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This is a 10* on UCF

This is the first ever meeting between Robert Morris and UCF. The home team is a big favorite and justifiably so. RMU had a tough maiden year in the Horizon League last season. They won only four games total and finished with their worst overall record in 11 years. Improving this season will be tough, at least early on, as the team’s best player from last year (AJ Bramah) transferred to Nevada. Bramah averaged 21 points and 10 rebounds for the Colonials. There are four new starters overall as the second leading scorer from last year is also gone. RMU ranked 324th in points allowed in 2020-21 so it’s not just the offensive end where they will struggle in this game. Central Florida returns most of its roster and should be healthier than they were a year ago when injuries were a problem. RMU has covered only one of the last six times it’s been a road underdog of 18.5 to 24 points. Lay it!  Play on UCF

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This is an 8* on ST. BONAVENTURE

St. Bonaventure opens its season at home against Sienna. The Bonnies won the Atlantic 10 last season with an 11-4 record in conference play and were 16-5 overall. They won the Conference Tournament to earn an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. There they would lose in the first round to LSU 76-61. This team has all the ingredients not just to get back to the NCAA Tournament, but to be even better in 2022. The Bonnies have five seniors on the roster including two All-Conference selections in Lofton and Osunniyi. They are 22-7-2 against the spread in their previous 31 home games. While it's a somewhat sizable number tonight, we think they cover. Siena did share the regular season MAAC championship last year, but doesn’t look as strong coming into the new season. Play on ST. BONAVENTURE

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This is an 8* on LA LAKERS

It’s been quite the disappointing start to the season for the LA Lakers, who are just 5-5 straight up and 2-8 against the spread. They’ve lost their last two games. Not only did LeBron James not play on Saturday, but teammate Anthony Davis (sprained thumb) was on the court for only seven minutes. The result was a 105-90 loss to Portland. It wasn’t even that close as the Lakers trailed by 31 going into the fourth quarter. We were happy as we were on the Blazers. But here we’re going with the Lakers. Yes, they played a bad game the other night and still won’t have James. But they are facing a Charlotte team that just got blown out last night in this building by the Clippers. Charlotte is 0-4 straight up and against the spread in its last four games and this is their third road game in the last four nights. That’s a bad situation. There have been multiple games this year where the Lakers blew a big lead and lost. We bring that up to illustrate that they should have a better record. Even without James (and maybe Davis?), we’re confident they can down the Hornets. Play on LA LAKERS

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This is a 10* on PORTLAND

Portland is playing the second night of a back to back on Saturday, but may be catching a huge break in that the Lakers could be without both of its superstars in tonight’s game. We know LeBron James won’t play. James suffered an abdominal strain in Tuesday’s game vs. the Rockets. He missed the Lakers last game, which was a loss to Oklahoma City. That game saw Anthony Davis sprain his thumb. Davis is questionable for tonight. Look for the Blazers, who won by four against Indiana on Friday, to take advantage of their banged up visitors. They are a different team where their record is 4-1. (They are 0-4 on the road). Damian Lillard is having an awful start to the year. But the fact that Portland still won even with him shooting 2 for 13 last night is probably a good thing. There’s just no way Lillard won’t start to shoot the ball better. The Lakers are not a terribly deep team. Without James and Davis, they’re pretty bad. LA’s ATS record is 2-7, worst in the league. Even if Davis plays, we don’t see them covering this number. Play on PORTLAND

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This is an 8* on CHARLOTTE

The Hornets and Kings meet tonight in Sacramento with the home team coming in as a slight favorite. The Kings are 4-4 overall and coming off a 112-99 win against New Orleans. Charlotte is 5-4 but has lost its last two games, one by three at home to Cleveland and the other by 22 at Golden State. We like the visitors in this one for a variety of reasons. One is that they are 4-0 straight up and against the spread the last five times they’ve played Sacramento. Two is that half of the Kings wins this year have come against New Orleans, who is 1-8 and in last place in the West. Their win on Wednesday marked the first time all year that the Kings won a game by more than four points. Third is that Charlotte is 17-5 ATS the last 22 times they’ve been coming off a double digit loss. It was a season low 92 points that they scored in their last game. Expect a much better performance tonight. Play on CHARLOTTE

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This is a 10* on MIA

Miami is catching Boston in the second night of a back to back, a situation that clearly benefits the home team. But it’s not as if the Heat need much additional “help” right now. They are 6-1 with the best point differential in the NBA and all six wins have come by 13 points or greater. The Celtics have been somewhat of a mess in recent days due to in-fighting. Reports are that the players hashed it out last night before downing Orlando 92-79, but we’ll see about that. It’s a big jump in class from facing the Magic (arguably the league’s worst team) to the Heat (who have been better than everybody to this point). Miami is holding teams to 98.9 points/game, the fewest in the league. In six of its eight games, Boston has shot worse than 44% overall. Play on MIAMI

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This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE

It’s been a poor start to the season for NBA Champion Milwaukee. Losers of three straight, the Bucks head to Detroit Tuesday night to face the Pistons. The good news here is that few teams are in sorrier shape right now than the one hailing from the Motor City. The Pistons are 1-5 and just lost by 26 to the Nets, who had previously been struggling just as the Bucs have. We’ll gladly lay the short number in this one as this is where Giannis and company should right the ship. The Bucks have dominated the Pistons in recent years, winning 14 straight meetings. We understand that the Bucks are playing short handed right now. But even with “just Giannis,” they’ve got way more in the tank than does Detroit, who has only gotten one game out of top draft pick Cade Cunningham thus far and he went 1 for 8 from the field. The Pistons' one win came against Orlando, who is the only team in the East that might finish with a worse record. All five times that Detroit has been an underdog, they’ve lost by at least six points. Play on MILWAUKEE

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This is a 10* on DALLAS

After an embarrassing effort in the first game of the season, Dallas has put together two straight impressive wins. They beat Houston in the home opener Tuesday, 116-106. But they failed to cover the 10.5 point spot. Here the number is a lot more manageable as they are set to host San Antonio. Coach Jason Kidd remains a somewhat questionable hire for the Mavericks, however the players seem to be working well with him. A decision was made to play EVERYONE (all 15 players) against the Rockets. The Spurs have had a different leading scorer in every game but just one win. That win came in the opener against Orlando. The Spurs have since lost to the Nuggets, Bucks and Lakers in a trio of fairly close encounters. We can see why some might think SA will keep this game close, but look for Dallas to shoot the ball much better than they have so far. At barely over 40%, the Mavs have the lowest FG% in the league right now. That is not going to continue with the likes of Luka Doncic on the roster. Lay the points here as the Spurs have allowed 121 and 125 points in their previous two games. We've got them ranked as one of the worst teams in the league. Play on DALLAS

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This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE

Save for a disastrous effort last Thursday in Miami, the Bucks have been every bit as good as expected to start the new NBA season. The NBA Champs are 3-1 with wins over the Nets, Spurs and Pacers. The last two wins came on the road. Now they return to Milwaukee to take on the upstart Timberwolves. This is a big step up in class for what is still a young Minnesota team. So far they’ve faced New Orleans (who is without Zion Williamson) twice and Houston. All three games came at home. They lost to the Pelicans on Monday, failing to score 100 points for the second straight game. We cannot see where they get the necessary offense to stay with the Bucks tonight. The Bucks have averaged 122.3 points/game in their three wins. We’ve seen more “small ball” recently with Brook Lopez out of the lineup. The Bucks have covered six straight home games when you go back to last year’s championship run. Minnesota was a poor 10-26 in their 36 road games last season. Lay it! Play on MILWAUKEE

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This is a 10* on DENVER

Though this is the second night of a back to back for the Nuggets, we expect them to come out and play hard Tuesday on TNT. It was an embarrassing result for them last night as they finished with just 87 points and lost to the lowly Cavs. Tonight they face a team at the opposite end of the NBA hierarchy, that being Utah, who is off to a 2-0 start. The Jazz have covered the spread in both wins. However, keep in mind that the two teams they’ve faced so far: Oklahoma City and Sacramento. The Jazz are well-rested coming into tonight as they have not played since Friday. But the thing with that is they are 0-6 against the spread the previous six times they’ve played a game on three or more days' rest. No one on the Nuggets, besides Nikola Jokic, scored more than 12 points last night. The team shot 9 of 38 from three-point range and just 40% percent overall. We expect across the board improvement from them tonight and do not believe Utah’s rest advantage will play a significant role. If anything, the Jazz could be a little bit rusty. Play on UTAH

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This is a 10* on POR

Portland is off an impressive 134-105 win against Phoenix the other night. In case you forgot, the Suns were in the NBA Finals last July. Now the Blazers head to LA hoping to end a six-game losing streak to the Clippers. The Clippers are not what they once were as Kawhi Leonard is out indefinitely and their record is 0-2. They lost to the Warriors in the first game and the Grizzlies in the second. Both games were close (decided by six points or less) but that doesn’t help if you’re the favorite as the Clippers are tonight. Plus while the two games have ended up close, both times the Clippers found themselves down by double digits. They trailed by as many as 16 in both contests. Portland is averaging 127.5 points/game which is just too many for the Clippers to overcome when laying points. In the early going, LA is shooting only 43.8% from the field. Grab the points. Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 10* on GSW

Golden State is 2-0 after sweeping the two LA teams. They upset the Lakers 121-114 on Opening Night. Then they defeated the Clippers 115-113 on Thursday. Two close wins, but in the Clippers game they did lead by as many as 19 at one juncture. Steph Curry made 10 three pointers in that game and scored 45 points. We’re starting to see “the Warriors of old.” While we aren’t saying they are back to that championship level, they are certainly better than a Sacramento team that hasn’t made the playoffs in 15 years. The Kings did win their first game, 124-121 over Portland, but couldn’t hold off Utah in a 110-101 loss on Friday. This is a situation where we simply believe one team (Golden State) is much better than the other and we’re getting an early season discount. Play on GOLDEN STATE

This is a 10* on BROOKLYN

The Nets will look to rebound from a poor Opening Night performance when they travel to Philadelphia on Friday. The Sixers are a mess right now with the ongoing Ben Simmons drama. Of course, Brooklyn has its own share of drama with Kyrie Irving. But they can still call upon both Kevin Durant and James Harden. That may have not been enough when facing Milwaukee Tuesday, but we expect them to play far better here. The 76ers did beat the Pelicans by 20 on Wednesday. But tonight they are unlikely to shoot the ball as well as they did in that first game when they connected on over half their field goal attempts, including 52% from three. Really, this play boils down to two simple things: we think the Nets are better and also can’t see them starting 0-2. They were underdogs Tuesday. Tonight they are favorites. They are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite. Play on BROOKLYN

AAA

This is a 10* on ATLANTA

The Hawks flew their way into the Eastern Conference Finals last season before eventually bowing out to Milwaukee in six games. After hiring Nate McMillian to be the head coach on March 1st, no team in the East had a better won-loss record than Atlanta’s 27-11. They also won 23 of their final 29 home games. The entire core of that team has been brought back and there have been some minor additions. What made the Hawks’ late season run so impressive is that they had several key players injured. Now fully healthy, we expect them to challenge for a top three spot in the standings. Can’t say the same for Dallas out in the Western Conference. Jason Kidd was a questionable coaching hire in our view. The Mavericks did not get out of the first round last season and are no better on paper for 2021-22. It’s only the first game of the season, but one motivating factor for the Hawks is they lost both games to the Mavs last year. Both losses occurred before McMillian was hired. Atlanta is 18-4 ATS its last 22 games as a home favorite. It’s a small number tonight. Lay it! Play on ATLANTA

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This is a 10* on HOUSTON

The Houston Rockets are not expected to be all that competitive for the 2021-22 season. Most prognostications have them and Oklahoma City as the likely two worst teams in the Western Conference. But should Minnesota, another team that’s not very good, be laying this many points in a season opener? Probably not. The Timberwolves have made the playoffs only once since 2003-04. While they did improve some after a coaching change, they still ranked near the bottom of the league defensively last year. They brought some new pieces to help them on the defensive end, but the problem is those players are liabilities at the offensive end. Other than Karl-Anthony Towns, there just aren’t many good two-way players on this roster. The T’wolves were only favored in 11 games last season and lost five of them. Their scoring differential when favored was only +1.5 per game. So they are not a team you’d want to lay points with. Houston is young and basically playing with “house money” coming into the new season. They had a winning (ATS) record as a road underdog last season and are capable of pulling the upset here. Play on HOUSTON

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This is a 10* on PHX

The NBA Finals have taken a dire turn for Phoenix. Once up 2-0, they are now down 3-2. This would be their first three-game losing skid since January, which is also the only other one (three-game skid) that they’ve been on all season. It’s a must-win in Game 6 at Milwaukee and we will be grabbing the points. For starters, the Suns are 14-5 ATS coming off a straight up loss as a favorite. They were four-point favorites back in Game Five. This is just the second time in the postseason that the Suns have been trailing in the series. The Bucks are 6-17 ATS when on a three-game win streak and 0-3 ATS off a straight up win as an underdog. Phoenix has shot 50% from the field in this series, which is pretty impressive. It also makes the series deficit that more shocking. In the last two games, the Suns have shot 53%. They were 68.4% from three in the last game. Devin Booker, off two straight 40+ point games, should get more help from teammates tonight. For Milwaukee, Middleton and Holiday will probably not combine for 56 points again (that’s what they went for in Game Five). Facing elimination for the first time, you know Phoenix is going to fight to the end. The last two losses were by just 10 total points. The underdog will cover in this one. Play on PHOENIX

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This is a 10* on PHOENIX

An improbable Game 4 victory saw the Bucks take nearly 20 more shots from the field. That was the key as they were outshot 51.3% to 40.2%, but still won 109-103. Not only did they win, they covered the 4.5-point spread as well. But now it's back to Phoenix. The home team is 4-0 straight up and against the spread in this series and we believe that trend is going to continue in Game 5 Saturday night. The Suns should have won Game 4. Devin Booker was on fire the entire game, but was eventually cooled off by foul trouble. We don’t see a player of Booker’s caliber getting into foul trouble at home. Chris Paul should play better in Game 5. He had just 10 points and five turnovers in Game 4. Kris Middleton went for 40 for the Bucks, but as we’ve seen throughout the playoffs, he’s better at home. The Suns made only 16 of 54 three-point attempts in the two games at Milwaukee. They made 20 threes in Game 2, the last time here. Milwaukee has not won or even covered a game in Phoenix the last three seasons. The Bucks really aren’t a great road team (just 25-22 SU) and they are just 3-7 ATS as underdogs this year. This is only the second time in the entire playoff run that the Suns have lost two in a row. Their one and only three game losing streak this season occurred back in January. We can’t see them losing a third straight game here. Lay the number. Play on PHOENIX

AAA

This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE

The Bucks’ backs are against the wall here as they are down 0-2 in the best of seven series. But they now get to be the home team. This is Milwaukee’s first time hosting an NBA Finals game since 1974! So expect a “rocking atmosphere” with Giannis and company delivering a win. Antetokounmpo did all he could in Game 2 with 42 points. Obviously he’s not bothered by the injury. He needs more help from his teammates and should get it at home. As we’ve been saying throughout the Bucks playoff run, both Middleton and Holiday always seem to shoot better at home. They were a combined 12 for 37 in Game 2, so improvement from them is a virtual guarantee. Phoenix also won’t make 20 three pointers again as they did in the last game. Dario Sarkic has been lost for the remainder of the series and Torrey Craig, a key bench player for the Suns, got injured in the second half of Game 2. Milwaukee obviously cannot afford to lose here as they would be in an 0-3 hole that no NBA team has ever gotten out of. Fortunate for them is they are 7-1 straight up and against the spread in home playoff games. The Bucks may be 0-5 SU and ATS the last five meetings with the Suns, but four of the games were in Phoenix. Play on MILWAUKEE

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This is a 10* on ATL

The insane injury bug that has seemingly bitten every single team in these playoffs has struck again, this time claiming Giannis Antetokounmpo of the Bucks. Milwaukee had been the one team to stay pretty much injury free this postseason, but now things have really gone sideways for them. They were terrible in Game 4, especially after Antetokounmpo went down. They were outscored by 14 after the injury and ended up losing 110-88. With Antetokounmpo doubtful for Game 5 and his entire future status in doubt, there is simply no way we could take the Bucks in this spot. Atlanta has proven they can win without Trae Young, doing so by 22 in the last game. Young is more likely to play tonight than Antetokounmpo and his return would be a real nice luxury to have. The Hawks are 3-0 SU and ATS this season off a game where they allowed 90 or less points. Lou Williams was tremendous starting in place of Young as he scored 21 points and had eight assists in Game 4. The Hawks are also 15-5-1 ATS off their last 21 double digit wins. Getting points against an Antetokounmpo-less Bucks team seems like a steal, even if Young does not play. Play on ATLANTA

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This is a 10* on PHX

The Suns have not lost two in a row since the Lakers series. So coming off the loss in Game 5, we’ll take them here in their second attempt to close out the Clippers. Digging themselves into a massive early hole (trailed 20-5 at the outset) did Phoenix no favors Monday night. That poor start basically decided the game. It was the first time in the series that the Suns trailed at the half. The first positive bit of news to report is that they are 7-3 against the spread this season when off a double digit loss. They are 19-7 ATS off a loss of any kind. It is unlikely that Chris Paul and Jae Crowder will combine to go 0 for 10 from behind the three point line again. That’s what they did in Game 5. Similarly, the Clippers probably won’t shoot 54.8% again like they did in Game 5. Paul George went for 41 points, his playoff high. The Clippers are definitely more banged up at this point of the series with Kawhi Leonard, Serge Ibaka and now Ivica Zubac all injured. LA is 3-6 ATS when off an upset win as an underdog. Our call is that the Suns end the Western Conference Finals tonight. Play on PHOENIX

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This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE

Atlanta is now 3-0 in Game 1’s during this playoff run. All three wins have come as underdogs. They were +8 for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals here in Milwaukee, a game they came from behind to win 116-113. Trae Young rebounded nicely from a dismal Game 7 against the 76ers. He had 48 points Wednesday night. The Hawks have been underdogs in nine straight games. Tonight will make it 10. They are an impressive 6-3 SU those past nine games, but have never won three straight games, which is what they are looking to do this evening. But we can’t see the Bucks losing both home games to open the series. So we’ll lay the points. Even though the Hawks have won five of their last six on the road, they are still just a .500 team (for the year) away from home. The Bucks are 31-11 SU at home and were 5-0 in the playoffs before dropping Game 1. They were also on a 13-game win streak at home going back to the regular season. Young can’t score 48 in every game and the injury to Bogdan Bogdanovic seems significant as he went just 1 for 6 in Game 1. Bogdanovic, not Young, has been the team’s best 3-point shooter this season. Expect the Bucks to shoot way better from three in this game (they were just 8 of 36 in Game 1), especially Kris Middleton (who was 0 for 9). Lay it! Play on MILWAUKEE

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This is a 10* on the CLIPPERS

Both Games 1 and 2 were tightly contested and the Suns are up 2-0 heading back to LA. We are also 2-0 in the series. Phoenix was the play for Game 1 and they covered the spread thanks to a pair of late Devin Booker free throws. We took the Clippers in Game 2 and that probably should have been an outright win, but we’ll take the cover. The finish to Game 2 was wild with the Clippers allowing a game-winning alley-oop in the final second. For the third straight series, they are down 0-2. In the first round, they won Game 3 in Dallas 118-108. In the second round, they won Game 3 at home, 132-106 over Utah. Going back to Game 7 of the first round, they’ve won four straight at home - all by double digits. The season is basically on the line tonight. Chris Paul may be back for the Suns, which is why the line has shifted towards the Suns after initially flipping to the Clippers -1. But Paul will have rust to shake off and bettors are overreacting to the news. Reggie Jackson has stepped up for the Clippers with Kawhi Leonard out as he’s averaging 23 points over the last four games. To us, this is a very obvious bounce back situation as the Clippers probably should have won Game 2. The Clippers are 6-2 ATS when trailing in the series during these playoffs. Phoenix is 1-9 ATS its last 10 visits to the Staples Center to face the Clippers. Play on LA CLIPPERS

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This is a 10* on LA CLIPPERS

We’re going with the Clippers plus the points in Game 2. We laid the points with the Suns in Game 1. They shot 55% from the field and were led by Devin Booker’s 40 points. Booker also had a triple double. Booker and his teammates aren’t likely to be that prolific for a second straight game. Considering that the Clippers were never out of Game 1, we give them a solid shot at pulling the upset here even as they continue to play without Kawhi Leonard. They defeated the Jazz twice without Leonard. Phoenix doesn’t have Chris Paul. The Clippers are 5-2 ATS when trailing in these series during these playoffs. Game 1 was tied going into the fourth quarter. Factoring in the likely decline in shooting by Phoenix, the Clippers should easily cover this spread. The Suns haven’t lost since Game 3 of the first round and can’t go on winning “forever.” Play on LA CLIPPERS

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This is an 8* on PHOENIX

So it is the Clippers vs. the Suns in the Western Conference Finals. But no Kawhi Leonard or Chris Paul in Game 1. This is the Clippers’ 1st ever Conference Finals appearance. It’s the first for the Suns since 2010 and they haven’t been in the NBA Finals since 1993. So we’re guaranteed some “new blood” out of the Western Conference this year. We were shocked that the Clippers beat the Jazz two straight times without Leonard. They trailed by 25 in the third quarter Friday. While LA got just one day off between series, Phoenix hasn’t played in a week. The Suns looked very impressive in sweeping Denver, winning all four games comfortably. They’ve won and covered seven in a row. It’s a shame that Paul is out, but we believe the Suns still get it done at home in Game 1. The Clippers lost the first two games of both prior series. We don’t see them continuing to post the best offensive efficiency rating in the playoffs. That’s because Phoenix allowed only 100.8 points/game in the first two rounds. The Clippers don’t have Serge Ibaka either and are 3-7-1 ATS off a straight up win by 10 or more points. Play on PHOENIX

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This is a 10* on BROOKLYN

The home team has won all six games in this series. We expect the trend to continue in Game 7. That means Brooklyn advances to the Eastern Conference Finals. Even having to go without Kyrie Irving, the Nets should put up a lot of points at home. The three games at Milwaukee have seen them average only 89.3 points/game. But at home they’ve averaged 118.0 and one of those was without Irving and also James Harden making just 1 of 10 field goal attempts. We trust Kevin Durant to lead the way Saturday. He is averaging 33.3 points/game in the series. Harden shot a lot better in Game 6 and finished with 16 points. He’s played 40+ minutes in both games since returning and we’re gonna predict a series high in points of Harden here in Game 7. On the flip side, look for Milwaukee’s Khris Middleton’s numbers to go down. Middleton had a game-high 38 in Game 6. He is averaging almost 31 points in the three games in Milwaukee. But that average goes down to 18.3 in Brooklyn. That’s a big difference. The Bucks crunch time play has not impressed us. They were lucky to get out to a big early lead in the last game. Brooklyn has the best player (Durant) and is at home. The Bucks’ road record is just 22-19 SU and they are 1-5 ATS as underdogs this season. If you include the regular season, the home team is 9-0 in head to head meetings between these teams in 2020-21. Play on BROOKLYN

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This is a 10* on UTAH

Utah thought they had the Clippers right where they wanted them heading into Game 5. The announcement that Kawhi Leonard would miss Game 5 led to the line skyrocketing. But the Clippers pulled the 119-111 upset and are now a game away from advancing to their first ever Western Conference Finals. Last year they were in this same position but famously dropped three straight to the Denver Nuggets. They only get two shots this time, after starting down 0-2 in the series. We don’t like their chances of getting it done in Game 6. Leonard is still expected to be out. Same with Serge Ibaka. This is the first three-game losing streak of the season for Utah, who had the NBA’s best regular season record. So history favors them getting it done. We realize the same could have been said for Game 5 and that was at home. But can you trust Paul George to score 37 points again? We don’t. The Jazz scored 65 first half points on Wednesday and six players finished in double figures. The Donovan Mitchell ankle injury remains a concern, but at least he’s gonna play (unlike Leonard). The Clippers are just 2-5 SU/ATS when leading a playoff series the last three years. It was very logical to “count them out” going into the last game. Utah won’t make the same mistake twice. Play on UTAH

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This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE

The Bucks seemed to have all the momentum heading into Game 5. They’d won the previous two games, plus James Harden and Kyrie Irving were both hurt for Brooklyn. Harden wound up suiting up Tuesday, but he did not play well (shot 1 of 10) and Milwaukee quickly jumped out to a 29-15 lead after one quarter of play. Their lead was 16 midway through the third, which is when Kevin Durant took over. Durant turned in a game for the ages with 49-17-10. But we don’t see him doing that again in Game 6 at Milwaukee. The Nets have lost all four games in Milwaukee this season, Irving is still out and Harden clearly isn’t 100 percent. So lay the points with the home team facing elimination. The Nets scored only 83 and 96 points in Games 3 and 4 here in Milwaukee. Play on MILWAUKEE

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This is a 10* on LA CLIPPERS

For the second series in a row, the Clippers find themselves down 0-2. There is a difference this time though. In the first round versus Dallas, those first two losses both came at home. The first two losses of the second round were both in Salt Lake City. So now, instead of having to go on the road to even things up, the Clippers can do so at home. They did lose the first three home games to Dallas, but won Game 7 here in Staples Center by a score of 126-111. We expect Kawhi Leonard to play better tonight than he did in Games 1 and 2 when he averaged just 22 points. Game 2 was a bit of a disaster as LA gave up 66 points in the first half and was down by as many as 21. But they actually rallied to take the lead in the fourth quarter. We certainly don’t see them falling behind that big in Game 3. In fact, they figure to come out quite strong given the series deficit that they are facing. Utah isn’t going to come close to matching its shooting from Game 2 (55.3 FG%). The Jazz were 20 of 39 on three-point attempts in that last game as well. The Clippers were the top three point shooting team in the NBA this year, so look for them to turn the tables Saturday. Utah has not covered any of the last four times they’ve been underdogs. Play on LA CLIPPERS

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This is a 8* on LAC

The Clippers turned in their highest scoring effort of the first round when they most needed it, winning Game 7 against Dallas 126-111. Most will view this as a disadvantage, having to start a new series basically 48 hours after winning a Game 7. But we like the Clippers as underdogs in Game 1 at Utah. Getting points, LA is 7-4 ATS this season and they’ve taken the game outright six times. We played against Utah in Game 1 of the opening round. That was the only game of the Memphis series they lost. Instead of focusing on how little time the Clippers had off between the two series, maybe we should focus more on how much time the Jazz have had off. They are 2-8 ATS since 2018-19 when having at least three days off between games. They are 0-2 ATS this season in that scenario with Game 1 vs. Memphis being the most recent instance. Mike Conley may be unavailable tonight and that would be a major blow for the home team. The two best players in this series (Leonard, George) will both be wearing road colors tonight. Play on LA CLIPPERS

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This is an 8* on PHILADELPHIA

Joel Embiid’s Game 1 status is up in the air, but remember that the Sixers won the series clincher against Washington without him. This line feels awfully short for a top seed playing at home. We’d say the line should be -3 before factoring in any kind of home court advantage. When these teams met three times in the regular season, the home team won all three times. Philadelphia hosted twice and won by 44 and 22. Those wins came in April too. The significance of that is that it was post-coaching change for Atlanta, which is when they got a lot better. The Hawks have lost only 11 games since Nate McMillan took over, but two of those were to the Sixers. Philadelphia scored 120 or more points in all four of its first round wins and regardless of whether Embiid plays today or not, they will be much more difficult to defend than the Knicks were (for Atlanta) in Round 1.  Speaking of defending, the Sixers gave up the second fewest number of points per possession in the league during the regular season. Atlanta has traditionally struggled in this round, going 6-17-1 ATS its last 24 games. Play on PHILADELPHIA

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This is a 10* on BROOKLYN

Look for Brooklyn to win Game 1 comfortably. Milwaukee is an underdog, which is rare, but it hasn’t been a good situation for them - at all. 0-4 this season - straight up and ATS - and 0-8 SU and ATS the last eight times. They’ve yet to face the Nets with Kevin Durant, James Harden and Kyrie Irving all suited up. We think the Bucks stock may be a bit too high after it took the minimum four games to beat the Heat in the first round. It’s not as if the Nets had much difficulty ousting Boston either. They did lose once, but that took a superhuman 50-point effort from Jayson Tatum. All four Nets wins in the first round were by double digits. They are the only team that averaged more points per game than Milwaukee in the regular season. Again, they did so despite the three All Stars not playing much together. Not surprising, Brooklyn’s scoring increased against Boston to 123.4 points/game. And it should be noted the Celtics are a pretty decent defensive team. Milwaukee is 6-16 ATS in 2020-21 following a win streak of three or more. A full week off for the Bucks is not ideal when having to deal with the Nets’ tempo. Play on BROOKLYN

AAA

This is an 8* on DALLAS

We’re now 6-0 over the five games of this series with the Under giving us three of those wins. We also won once with the Over. We’ve played the side twice, winning with Dallas in Game 2 and the Clippers in Game 3. The Mavericks now have a 3-2 series lead after taking Game 5 by a score of 105-100. They got 42-8-14 from Luka Doncic, who has been the best player - on either team - in the series. If you’re a Clippers fan, the scary thing is to hear Doncic say “I could have played way better.” We agree that the Mavs could have shot better as a team. They made only 41.6% from the field in Game 5. The home team has yet to win a game, but we see that as likely to change in Game 6 where we like the short home dog. It’s difficult to see the home team losing six in a row in one series. Play on DALLAS

AAA

This is an 8* on PHOENIX

The Lakers appear lost offensively without Anthony Davis. They still have LeBron James and because of that most are going to expect them to force a Game 7. But we don’t. People have underrated this Suns team all season as their 45-30-2 ATS record is second best in the whole league. The Lakers’ ATS record of 33-44-1 is among the five worst in basketball. The Lakers scored a season-low 85 points in Game 5 and trailed by 30 at halftime. While it’s reasonable to assume things will be closer in Game 6, which is in LA, we don’t think the Lakers can make up the entire gap we saw in the last game. That’s even if Davis plays, which is up to the doctors. The Suns defense has been great since the start of the second half of Game 4 as the Lakers are shooting less than 40 percent. Cameron Payne has really stepped up with Chris Paul playing hurt. Devin Booker is handling the scoring. For LA, James has been settling for threes and not getting to the free throw. His supporting cast simply can’t make up for the loss of Davis. You’re seeing why this was a team that had to win a play-in game just to be part of the playoffs. Take the points. Play on PHOENIX

AAA

This is a 10* on MEMPHIS

The Grizzlies are facing elimination in Game 5 as the series moves back to Utah. It’s a tall order facing the underdogs as they’ve now got to defeat the team with the best record in the NBA three straight times, including twice on the road. But considering they did win Game 1 here in Salt Lake City, it would be foolish to write Memphis off at this point. We went with them in what turned out to be 112-109 upset in Game 1 and will do the same tonight.  Even though they’ve lost three straight, the Grizzlies have not played poorly by any means in this series. Game 2 was an obvious bounce back situation for the Jazz, but Memphis was still within six in the fourth quarter. The two games at Memphis were both competitive. Game 3 saw the Grizzlies ahead with just over four minutes to go. Game 4 saw them fight back and get as close as two points in the fourth quarter. Take the points tonight. Utah’s three point shooting in the last three games has been excellent, but will cool off. The three point shooting for Memphis should improve from the 28.6% we saw in the last game. The Grizzlies are 24-17 straight up (and 24-15 ATS) on the road in 2020-21. The Jazz are only 3-8 ATS their last 11 home games. Play on MEMPHIS

AAA

This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA

Look for the 76ers to finish off the Wizards tonight and to do so in decided fashion. This is just a one sided series as Philadelphia is averaging 125.7 points/game and allowing only 105.3. The last two games were basically over by halftime and ended up being wins of 25 and 29 points. The Wizards have not shot well, which is essentially doom for them as they don’t play very good defense. The teams have met six times this year with Philadelphia now 6-0 straight up. They’ve scored at least 120 points in five of the six wins. Washington has been held under its season average in four of the six losses. Russell Westbrook is hobbled, which makes things even worse for the underdog. Going back to last year, the Sixers have beaten the Wizards eight straight times. They are on a 10-3-1 ATS run as road favorites coming into tonight. Washington has given little indication that they can “hang” and they are 2-10 ATS the last 12 games as a playoff dog. Play on PHILADELPHIA

AAA

This is a 10* on PORTLAND

Portland is looking to avoid dropping back to back home games to Denver, which would put them in a 3-1 hole in the series. The Blazers simply have not defended well over the course of the three games, first allowing the Nuggets to shoot better than 50% overall in the two games in Denver and then 52.6% from three (20 of 38) in Game 3. But we like old “zig zag theory” to come through for Game 4 as Portland should bounce back at home. Damian Lillard, after an incredible individual effort in Game 2, made just 5 of 16 three point attempts on Thursday. He still scored 37 points mind you, but the team ended up 14 of 45 from three point land. It was the second game in this series where we saw a pretty massive discrepancy in three point shooting between the two teams. The discrepancy worked out in Portland’s favor when they won Game 1 and it’s only natural to see a swing in their favor for Game 4. Denver won’t have Will Barton active for tonight and that’s on top of missing Jamal Murray. We don’t think Austin Rivers is capable of duplicating his Game 3 effort and the Blazers should move to 9-4 ATS this season when off a loss as a favorite. Play on PORTLAND

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This is an 8* on NEW YORK

Trailing by double digits at halftime in Game 2, the Knicks appeared to be in grave danger of falling down 0-2 in this series with the Hawks. But they put the clamps down in the second half of that last game, holding Atlanta to just 35 points, and it ended up being a 101-92 New York win. Having lost the first game by only two points, Knicks’ fans probably feel as if they should be up 2-0 in the series. That it was the defense that sparked the second half comeback on Wednesday should not come as any surprise. The Knicks allowed the fewest number of points per game in the league during the regular season. They are also the league’s best ATS team with a cover rate of 65.3%, which is well out in front of everyone else. The fact they’ve covered 9 of their last 11 games as road underdogs comes in handy here as they are taking on a team that’s 11-0 straight up in its last 11 home games. The Knicks have suffered only two losses in their previous seven games and each came by just two points. Therefore, taking the points in Game 3 seems like the best option. Play on NEW YORK

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This is an 8* on MIAMI

The Heat find themselves desperately needing to win Game 3, otherwise this series will be just about over. They lost both games in Milwaukee, the first one being close (109-107 in overtime) and the second one being a blowout (132-98). Given that the Heat are down 0-2, we were a bit surprised to see this line “jump the fence” as the Bucks are now favored. It was record-setting shooting for Milwaukee on Monday as they made 22 three-pointers, the most ever by the franchise in a single playoff game. They scored 46 points in the first quarter, 78 in the first half and were ahead at one point by 36. But now the series heads to Miami and the Heat have yet to shoot well. We think they will tonight in Game 3. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are averaging just 26 points/game - combined. In the regular season, the duo averaged just over 40 points/game. The Bucks were just 20-16 straight up on the road in the regular season as opposed to 26-10 at home. They are 5-10 against the spread coming off a game where they scored at least 130 points. Miami can’t afford to go down 0-3 as no one has ever come back from that series deficit in the history of the NBA. Play on MIAMI

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This is a 10* on DALLAS

The Mavs seized home court advantage by “stealing” Game 1 in LA, 113-103 as six-point underdogs. Luka Doncic scored 31 points and the key was the Clippers, the league’s top three point shooting team, making only 27.5% from behind the arc. Dallas led most of the game and shot well. While most will be thinking “zig zag theory” here, the gap between the teams simply isn’t as wide as the spread suggests. The Clippers have not won a game in 10 days and are just 3-9 ATS their previous 12 games. They’ve lost three of the four games to Dallas this year including the infamous 51-point loss two days after Christmas. All three Mavericks wins have been by 10 or more points. The Clippers have a lot of pressure on them heading into this postseason and we’re not convinced they are capable of living up to the hype. Dallas is a good team that has lost just three times in its last 13 games, one of those the inconsequential final regular season game. Grab the points in this one. Play on DALLAS

This is an 8* on MIAMI

Both the Heat and Bucks hope for improved shooting in Game 2. From the Heat point of view, that may sound a little strange seeing as they connected on a franchise record 20 three-pointers in Game 1. But they were just 32.7% from the floor inside the arc and both Bam Adebayo (4 of 15) and Jimmy Butler (4 of 22) were not sharp. Miami was our 10* Game of the Month in Game 1, so we were quite happy with the final result. We’ll take them again here as they never trailed by more than eight points on Saturday and there’s no reason to believe they will again tonight. Remember that they eliminated the Bucks from last year’s playoffs. They seem to know how to defend Giannis Antetokounmpo, who was only 10 of 27 in Game 1. The Heat are 16-5 ATS their previous 21 playoff games including 5-0 ATS in the first round. They’ve won 8 of their last 11 overall and while two of the losses were to Milwaukee, one of them didn’t matter and the other went to overtime. The Bucks are now 1-7 ATS their last eight games. Play on MIAMI

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This is a 10* on MEMPHIS

Not many are giving Memphis a chance in Game 1, let alone the series. But coming off two wins in the first ever play-in tournament, maybe they should. The Grizzlies’ narrow wins over San Antonio and Golden State are a little misleading in the sense they led most of the way in both games. Not saying it’s going to be a wire to wire win here in Salt Lake City, but we do like the Grizzlies to keep it close. It will be interesting to observe the “rest vs. rust” for the Jazz, who have not played in a week. The fact Memphis had to win twice to get here isn’t that big of a disadvantage as teams normally play more than twice in a six day span. Of the three times these teams played in the regular season, two were decided by four points or less. The exception was the second game, which was a back to back on the road. Utah has had three or more days rest for only one game all season and they didn’t cover the spread in it. Memphis is 23-14 ATS in road games and is a top six team defensively in points per possessions allowed. Grab the points. Play on MEMPHIS

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This is a 10* on MIAMI

Milwaukee will obviously be motivated based on last year’s playoff exit at the hands of Miami. But the Bucks sure chose a tough potential path to make it to the NBA Finals. They may have to go through the Heat, Nets and Sixers to get there. They’ve infamously flamed out of the playoffs earlier than expected the last two years. There’s a lot of pressure on star player Giannis Antetokounmpo coming into this series. The Heat are once again peaking at the right time. They won 12 of their final 16 regular season games to move up to the six seed. Yes, one of the losses did come to the Bucks. But now it’s the playoffs and that’s what this team (meaning the Heat) are built for. They have a top 10 defense and held Milwaukee to 32.7% shooting on three-point attempts in last year’s series. They also have a blueprint to stop Giannis. Eric Spoelstra really outcoached Mike Budenholzer last year. Miami is 15-5 ATS L20 playoff games. The reason they got off to the slow start this year was likely to do to such a short period of time off between seasons. Jimmy Butler’s numbers ended up being here this year compared to last. He and Bam Adebayo are the keys, but we also think some of the Heat’s perimeter shooters are going to knock down more threes than usual. Tyler Herro has been cold since returning from injury. That can change in a hurry. The Bucks have only covered one of their last seven games. Play on MIAMI

This is an 8* on GOLDEN STATE

This is too many points for Golden State. Not only have they won six in a row, they’ve covered six straight as well. The Lakers have the worst ATS record among playoff teams (31-40-1). They aren’t going to just automatically “gel” now that LeBron and Davis are back. James is still hobbled by his injured ankle. Not hobbled is Steph Curry. He went for 46 in the last game and is #1 in the league in scoring. Over his past 24 games, Curry has scored 30 or more 21 times while averaging 36.9 points. HIs shooting alone can propel the Warriors to victory here. The five-game win streak by the Lakers includes two wins by two points. They are off a 110-98 win at New Orleans on the season’s final day. Bad news: the Lakers are 6-15 ATS off a double digit win this year. They are only 2-12 ATS after their last 14 straight up wins. We’re grabbing the points. Play on GOLDEN STATE

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This is a 10* on MIAMI

Each has two games left in the regular season, but this may not be the last time the Bucks run into the Heat. There’s a chance these two teams could be first round playoff opponents. Milwaukee will finish in the top three, maybe as high as second depending on what the Nets do this weekend. Miami can finish anywhere from fourth to sixth depending on the next two games. What we do know is the Heat would much rather finish in the top five, and match up with either the Hawks or Knicks, as opposed to finishing sixth and facing either the Bucks or Nets. Miami seems to be peaking at the right time as they’ve won four in a row and seven of eight. Their last win was against the East’s #1 seed, Philadelphia, whom they held to 94 points. Remember that the Heat peaked at the right time last year and made it all the way to the NBA Finals, a run that included them eliminating the Bucks from the postseason. The teams haven’t met since December when Miami was in a lot rougher shape. Milwaukee is off a big 142-133 win at Indiana Thursday. They are 4-10 ATS this season if they scored 130 or more points in their last game. Also, in four of their past five games, the Bucks have surrendered at least 133 points. That’s pretty bad. Grab the points. Play on MIAMI

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This is a 10* on WASHINGTON

There’s still one spot in the Eastern Conference play-in tournament up for grabs. It will likely go to Washington. All the Wizards need to do is beat Cleveland tonight and the spot is theirs. They have a two-game lead over Chicago with two games to play. Beating the Cavaliers should not be difficult. The Cavs are one of the worst teams in the league and are coming off a rare win. Before defeating Boston 102-94 two days ago, Cleveland had lost 11 in a row. Seven of those losses were by double digits and only two were by less than nine. The only teams in the league with a worse point differential (than the Cavs) are Orlando and Oklahoma City. Washington let one slip away in Atlanta Wednesday, so they should come out angry. Even without Bradley Beal, the Wizards averaged 120 points/game in the two losses to the Hawks. Scoring shouldn’t be an issue here either. Washington is 26-12 ATS after scoring 115 or more points in their last game and they finished with 116 on Wednesday. Since April 12th, the Wizards are 13-5 and every loss was by four points or less, three of them by one point. So they are one of the hottest teams in the league over the last month. On the road, Cleveland does not even average 100 points/game and they are 10-24 ATS. Play on WASHINGTON

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