This is an 8* play on the Portland Trailblazers.

I jumped on this line the second it came out and only got +4.5, most of you would have been able to get in at +5.5, but regardless, I love this selection and while I obviously feel that the outright win isn't out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for the visitors to at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Both teams backed their way into the postseason, but Portland plays with the "revenge" incentive after Memphis swept the regular season series, they last met on March 21st with the Grizz pulling off the 97-86 victory (note that two of those games were decided by six points or fewer). Portland's Damian Lillard summed it up best here: "Last year, Houston beat up on us during the regular season, 3-1," Lillard explained. "We got the best of them in the playoffs. We locked in and got it done. We got the best of San Antonio in the regular season. In the playoffs, we know what happened. Like I said, it's a completely different level of intensity and focus. Everything changes." Portland needs to try its best to turn this into a track meet, it's 102 PPG average is one of the tops in the league and will need to get the stingy Grizzlies on their heels. Memphis struggled down the stretch and I think is ripe for the picking today, play on PORTLAND.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the Brooklyn Nets.

While I won't be so bold as to call for an outright victory, I do feel that this is a few too many points to be giving up here and am expecting the visitors to comfortably sneak in through the back door with what I deem to be a healthy amount of points afforded to them in this Game 1 Eastern Conference Opening Round. To say this is a "revenge" game for the Nets would be a bit of an understatement I think as the Hawks would take all four regular season meetings. Brooklyn obviously has nothing to lose today, the pressure is clearly on the Hawks who for the most part had a target on their backs all season long; I definitely feel that this benefits Brooklyn. It's also interesting to note that the Hawks elected to "coast" down the stretch of the regular season so as to give their starters plenty of rest in the playoffs, finishing just 7-8 their last 15 which included a pair of three-game losing streaks. Atlanta fans need to ask themselves seriously, can the Hawks "flip a switch" and instantly re-gain the chemistry and swagger that they had at the start of the year? I think the Hawks will ultimately beat the Nets in this series, but believe it's going to take some time for Atlanta to "get up to speed," a perfect situational factor we're going to take advantage of today. Note the Brooklyn is 4-1 ATS this year when playing with three or more days rest, while Atlanta is just 7-9 ATS in its last 16 in the same position. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to BROOKLYN as the sharp move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Washington Wizards.

While I obviously feel that the outright win isn't out of the question here, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the visitors to at the very least, keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Ultimately I think that the Raptors' lack of a true big man will be a major detriment to them in this series. A lot of the focus of this series is of course in the back-court, each team sports strong units, the Raptors have Lowry and DeRozan while the Wizards have Wall and Beal; clearly this area is a "wash." To say this is a "revenge" game for the visitors though would be a massive understatement as Toronto took all three in the regular season series this year and three of four last season; note though that three of the past four meetings have been decided by five points or fewer, with two going into the extra frame. The Wizards remain confident: "With the playoffs here, (regular season results) don't matter," Beal said. "It's a totally different style of basketball. Totally different mentalities, totally different intensity level, totally different atmosphere." With part of the Raptors attention turned to veteran Paul Pierce, I think that WASHINGTON can take advantage this afternoon.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Minnesota Timberwolves.

While I do feel that the outright win isn't out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the Wolves to take this one down to the wire. LA has gone 0-5 this month, but Minnesota has lost eight straight. The last time that LA won was a 101-99 OT effort over Minnesota back on March 25th. The "revenge factor" definitely comes into play here. Note that LA had six players out in its listless 119-101 setback to Denver on Wednesday and all will also be sitting today. The Wolves can empathize, they also have several key injuries to deal with, but one player to keep your eyes on today is rookie Andrew Wiggins who has averaged 24.3 points in his last nine games and who had 27 in the loss vs. the Lakers last month. From an ATS trend based stand point, this play is about as strong as you could possibly ask for as note that the Wolves are 15-10 ATS this year in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent, while LA is a poor 9-13 ATS after a loss by ten points or more. Consider sprinkling a little on the money line as well, play on MINNESOTA.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* WEST-COAST EXPRESS on the Houston Rockets.

While I obviously feel that the outright win isn't out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for the hungry and revenge minded home side to find a way to at the very least, keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door with the hand full of points that it's been afforded tonight. The Spurs beatdown of the Rockets on Wednesday pulled them to within a half-game of Houston in the Southwest Division. San Antonio has been on quite the roll, it's won nine straight overall and two straight in this series, but I think will finally have a letdown here as it will be playing its third game in four days. There's no question the Rockets will be looking to avenge the most recent 110-98 loss on Wednesday and they should definitely feel confident in this position, they have in fact won four straight and seven of the last eight in this series in front of the home town crowd. Note that the Spurs are 0-6 ATS this year as a road favorite of 3 points or less and just 6-8 TS vs. division opponents, while the Rockets are 8-1 ATS in their last nine as a home dog of 3 points or less and 11-2 ATS after a loss by ten points or more. This sets up as a classic letdown spot for the Spurs, the motivational situational and strong trend based factors working in favor of HOUSTON are overwhelming and will in the end prove to be the difference in the outcome of this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* WEST-COAST EXPRESS on the Houston Rockets.

I played against the Spurs last night and while that was obviously a bad call, I think we're getting pretty good line value in this spot and while I obviously feel that the outright win isn't out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the Rockets to at the very least, keep this one competitive enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door with the hand full of points they've been afforded tonight. The Rockets catch the Spurs amid an awesome run, San Antonio has won 18 of its last 21 games, getting the job done with suffocating defensive pressure. However, now the home side must face the revenge minded Rockets and NBA leading scorer James Harden. Houston has won ten of 12 while averaging 107.1 points - that PPG average rises to 112.7 during the Rockets recent three-game win skein. Note that Harden has been particularly dominant of late, averaging 38.7 PPG on 54.8 percent shooting and 61.5 from beyond the arc; also note that Harden has torched the Spurs whenever given the opportunity in averaging 26.8 over the past eight meetings (his 28 was not enough in his team's 110-106 road defeat on December 28th). Note that Houston is 16-12 ATS this season in revenging a loss vs. an opponent, also 14-7 ATS in its last 21 vs. teams with winning records and 27-22 ATS this year vs. good offensive teams which score 99-plus points per contest. And note that San Antonio is in fact a poor 5-8 ATS vs. division opponents this season and just 3-4 ATS this year as a home favorite in the 3.5 to 6 points range. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to HOUSTON as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* BAIL-OUT on the LA Lakers.

I think that the Lakers will keep this one competitive enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the large spread they've been afforded in the Battle of LA. The Lakers have lost ten of the last 11 in the series, including a 106-78 beatdown on Sunday, the teams franchise-record 56th defeat. But I think this sets up as a bit of a mental letdown spot for the Clippers, who enjoy a critical three entire days off between their next game vs. Memphis on Saturday: "I don't fully understand the context or the history of everything between the two organizations, but it doesn't matter to me that much, to be honest," assessed first-year Lakers guard Jeremy Lin after the crushing defeat on Sunday. "What happened tonight is definitely not a good feeling, so we want to try to make sure that doesn't happen again on Tuesday." Note that the Lakers are 19-17 ATS this season after allowing 105 points or more, while the Clippers are just 16-22 ATS in all home games and only 5-8 ATS after a divisional contest. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to the LAKERS as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* WESTERN-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH on the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Despite still playing for home court advantage throughout the playoffs, I think this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the visitors and look for the "hungry" home side to at the very least, keep this this one close enough to escape with the comfortable ATS cover with the hand full of points that it's been afforded tonight. The Spurs come into this game having won seven straight and are a lights out 17-3 since February 27th. It's really hard not to imagine the Spurs coming in a tiny bit complacent tonight though, especially after ending Golden State's 12-game run with a 107-92 victory at home on Sunday. The Thunder on the other hand are fighting for their playoff lives and have had to overcome injury issues all season. OKC still leads ninth-placed New Orleans by one half-game though and will clearly be looking to get back into the winners circle after losing five of six and three in a row for the first since mid November. Not only does this set up as a letdown spot for the Spurs in my opinion, but it also sets up as a "look-ahead" spot as well with a game against division rival Houston at home tomorrow night. The Thunder on the other hand don't play again until Friday, the home side has no excuses this evening, in reality, this is almost a do or die game for for the club. Also note that San Antonio is just 9-10 ATS this season after three or more consecutive SU wins, while OKC is 2-0 ATS this year as a home dog in the 3.5 to 6 points range, 18-14 ATS in revenging a loss vs. an opponent and 3-1 ATS after three or more consecutive SU losses. While I do feel the that outright win isn't out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can with OKLAHOMA CITY.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Oklahoma City Thunder.

For a number of different reasons I expect the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon. This is a revenge game for Russell Westrbrook and the home side who have lost the first two meetings. OKC though has done a pretty good job against Rockets big man Dwight Howard this year, holding him to 9.7 PPG on 9 for 25 shooting. Howard had eight points and seven boards in 18 minutes in his team's 108-101 win at Dallas on Thursday. The Thunder are in a dog fight for the West's eighth seed and will surely be the "hungrier" team today after dropping four of their last five, most recently a lacklustre 100-92 setback at Memphis on Friday. Westbrook has carried the load for the most part this year, he'll need his supporting cast to step up and help today, but note that this is in fact a spot in which the Thunder have excelled in for bettors this season, a great 18-13 ATS in revenging a loss vs. an opponent, 22-15 ATS in front of the home town crowd overall and 13-11 ATS in its last 24 vs. good offensive teams which score 99 plus points per contest. And note that this is a position in which the Rockets have been terrible, just 4-7 ATS off an upset win as an underdog and only 3-9 ATS after a divisional contest. In my opinion, the motivational and trend based factors working in favor of OKLAHOMA CITY are just to big to turn down today.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Kentucky.

A couple of No. 1's collide in the Final Four, for a number of different reasons I expect undefeated Kentucky to remain so once again after this game is over and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. It would not be hard whatsoever writing a convincing argument for either of these teams obviously, but I simply think this is a match-up which clearly benefits the Wildcats and think Kentucky's speed will prove to be just too much for the Badgers to overcome this time. Granted, Wisconsin center Frank Kaminsky is a match-up problem for any team he faces, but beyond him and Sam Dekker, who else can the Badgers turn to? This plays right into the Wildcats "wheel house" defensively, who employ a "help" style of defense. Also note that Wisconsin is just 6-7 ATS in its last 13 vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 points or less per contest, while Kentucky is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season when playing with five or six days of rest. The WILDCATS overall team depth is the reason I'm backing them today.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* WEST-COAST EXPRESS on the Dallas Mavericks.

While I obviously feel that the outright win isn't out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the home side to keep this one competitive and at the very least, sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the handful of points that it's been afforded. I jumped on this line the second it came out and only got 3.5, the line has since climbed, so you should hopefully be able to get a better number than I did, but regardless, I still love this selection. The Mavericks are going to be hungry today as they look to avoid the season sweep at the hands of the Warriors. It's hard not to imagine Golden State coming in complacent today as it's won 16 of 17 and 11 in a row. Golden State has been winning, but note that its last two games have not been easy, a 110-106 victory over the Clippers on Tuesday and a 107-106 effort over Phoenix on Thursday. I think the visitors come into this contest in a classic letdown spot. While Dallas is assured a place in the postseason, it's been scuffling of late in dropping five of seven, most recently a 108-101 setback by Houston on Thursday. There's no question in my mind that the Mavs come in focused tonight. This is a great situational play in my opinion, but it's also strong from a trend based stand point as note that Golden State is in fact a poor 9-10 ATS in its last 19 vs. poor defensive teams which allow 99 plus points per game. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to DALLAS as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Michigan State.

While I do believe the outright win isn't out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect MSU to at the very least, keep this one competitive enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what I feel to be a healthy amount of points afforded to it today. Note that this is a revenge game for the Spartans who were routed by the Blue Devils back in November. Both of these teams have pretty much run roughshod over their competition so far and for the most part in the Tournament and these schools matchup pretty well against each other. Duke has not been unbeatable this year though, it looked pretty ordinary in losses to UNC and Miami. This play is almost entirely based on some very strong ATS trends though, as note that Michigan State is a perfect 4-0 ATS this year vs. good offensive teams which score 77 plus points per contest, while Duke is just 6-10 ATS this year after allowing 60 points or less. I feel that the TROJANS defense is getting little respect today.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Indiana Pacers.

For a number of different reasons I expect the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Both teams are on the outside of the playoff picture looking in, but each still has a mathematical shot at reaching the promised land. If history is any precedence though, then the Pacers have to be loving their chances as they've won 11 straight in Indiana in this series. Charlotte actually sits just above the Pacers in the playoff race and can secure the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Hornets as they've taken two of three meetings, most recently a hard-fought 103-102 decision on the road on February 8th. Indiana is actually 16-3 in the last 19 in the series, holding Charlotte to an average of just 88.6 points during an 11-game home winning streak and will be extra anxious to return to form after dropping nine of its last 11 overall. While the Hornets have won two of three, note that this is a spot in which the team has struggled in all season for bettors, just 5-7 ATS after a victory by ten points or more, also just 1-5 ATS after playing three consecutive home games. And note that this is in fact a position in which Indiana has excelled in, 10-8 ATS after a loss by ten points or more and 6-4 ATS as a home favorite in the 3.5 to 6 points range. In my opinion, this game favors the home side on a number of different levels, play on the PACERS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Miami.

For a number of different reasons I expect Miami to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. As we can tell by this spread, the oddsmakers think these teams are pretty evenly matched and that's my take on it as well, I simply feel that Miami's depth and experience will prove to be too much for the Cardinal today. The Hurricanes have dealt with adversity all year and here they are in the finale of the NIT: "We play much better when we are loose," coach Jim Larranaga assess last night. "We like being the underdog. We like having to overcome adversity -- and unfortunately we even like to overcome deficits." Stanford played well early on in the year, but the time that Selection Sunday arrived, the team had lost eight of 12 and were also ravaged by the injury bug. I think Miami has the slight advantage with personnel, but note that Stanford is a poor 2-5 ATS this year when playing with one or less days rest, while the Hurricane are 4-3 ATS when playing with one or less days rest, and 7-4 ATS when playing the role of underdog. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to MIAMI as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR on the Milwaukee Bucks.

I jumped on this line the second it came out and got +3.5 and while it's since gone the other way (is +5 as of writing this analysis), I still love this selection and while I obviously feel that the outright win isn't out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the Bucks to at the very least, sneak in through the back door with the handful of points they've been afforded tonight. This is a triple revenge spot for Milwaukee as well as Chicago has taken the first three. I also think this sets up as a bit of a mental letdown spot for the visitors who come into this game having won three straight. While the Bulls are rolling, the Bucks are stumbling, dropping eight of their last ten and holding onto sixth spot in the East. In my opinion, desperation breeds motivation and I think the home side is set to keep this one competitive; one player to keep your eyes on is Milwaukee's Michael Carter-Williams who has averaged 12.8 points in 17 games since coming over to the Bucks. And from a trend based stand point, this play is about as strong as you could possibly ask for as note that the Bucks are 9-5 ATS this year after a loss by ten points or more, 8-5 ATS vs. division opponents and 26-19 ATS in revenging a loss vs. an opponent, while Chicago is just 1-2 ATS this season when playing with three or more days of rest, just 2-5 ATS after allowing 85 points or less, only 10-16 ATS after scoring 105 points or more and just 3-8 ATS after three or more consecutive SU victories. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to MILWAUKEE as the sharp move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Dallas Mavericks.

While I obviously feel that the outright win isn't out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the under-rated visiting side to at the very least, keep this one close enough to sneak in through the backdoor down the stretch. Both teams will be playing in the postseason, but each comes into this game in different situations. The Mavs have been scuffling, while OKC has still managed to win despite a slew of injuries. As I always like to say: "desperation breeds motivation!" I think this is a great motivational spot bet, the Mavs will be the "hungrier" team today in my opinion and have to be loving the chance to take advantage of this wounded and clearly over-performing home side. Most recently Dallas would take a 61-55 lead into the break vs. Indiana on Sunday, only to come out flat in the second half and ultimately fall 104-99. The Thunder not only have to deal with the loss of all star Kevin Durant for the season, but now also big man Serge Ibaka and while Russell Westbrook continues to pull off the miraculous, I think he'll have a much more difficult time tonight vs. this focused Mavs team. Note that Dallas is 15-12 ATS this year following a non-conference game, while OKC is just 2-8 ATS this season when playing with two days of rest. Play on the MAVERICKS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ATS SUPER-BLOWOUT on Old Dominion.

They say defense wins championships and while that's certainly not always the case, I do think that ODU's smothering defensive play will be just too much for the Cardinal to overcome today and while I obviously feel that the outright win isn't out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the Monarchs to take this one down to the wire. Stanford is 22-13 overall and finished 9-9 in Pac 12 play, while Old Dominion is 27-7 overall, finishing 13-5 in the Conference USA. These teams have not faced each other since 2000. OD has won nine of its last ten, anchored by a stout defense which holds opponents to just 56.8 percent shooting overall and only 30.8 percent from three-point range. Both teams would use home-court to their advantage to make it to the semifinal round at MSG, but that is obviously a factor which can be thrown out the window now. However, what can't be ignored is the travel across the country for Pac 12 Stanford, compared to a short jaunt for OD. I think this is a big advantage for the Monarchs. Also note that Stanford is just 1-3 ATS in all neutral court games this year, while Old Dominion is 3-2 ATS in the same position. A tough defense and logistical advantages make OLD DOMINION the savvy move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Boston Celtics.

I think the Clippers come in a bit complacent tonight and while I do obviously feel that the outright win isn't out of the question for the playoff hopeful home side, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for Boston to at the very least, keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what I deem to be a healthy amount of points afforded to it today. This is the final game of a three game road trip for the Clippers, who have won the first two, most recently clinching a playoff spot after thumping the 76ers 119-98 on Friday night. In my opinion, this is sets up as the very definition of a letdown spot, the final game of an Eastern road swing, coming off back-to-back victories and already punching your ticket to the post-season? Conversely, the C's are in a dog fight right now for the final two spots in the East and currently occupy the eighth slot by one-half game over Brooklyn (note that the Nets are at home to the Lakers today). Note that LA loves to get out and push the pace of the game, but Boston is ranked third in the NBA in fast-break points allowed. Also note that the Clippers are just 17-27 ATS this year vs. good offensive teams which score 99-plus points per contest and just 13-16 ATS in all non-conference games, while the Celtics are 23-15 ATS this season vs. poor defensive teams which allow 99-plus points per contest and 16-12 ATS in all non-conference games. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the CELTICS as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the LA Lakers.

I think this sets up as a classic let down spot for the Nets and look for the Lakers to keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what I feel to be a healthy amount of points afforded to them tonight. Brooklyn is coming off a big and extremely satisfying 106-98 win over Cleveland on Friday and now sits one-half game back of eighth-place Boston in the East. Not only does this set up as a let down spot, it's also a look-ahead spot with a game against the playoff hopeful Pacers on Tuesday. I think LA keeps this one competitive, note that it's 25-21 ATS this year in revenging a loss vs. an opponent and 16-11 ATS in all non-conference games. And note that Brooklyn has struggled in this position all season, a horrible 11-21 ATS in all home games, 4-10 ATS off an upset win as an underdog and just 7-9 ATS after scoring 105 points or more. While I won't be so bold as to call for an outright upset, I do definitely feel that this is a few too many points to be giving up here after considering all of the above factors, play on the NETS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Michigan State.

For a number of different reasons, I expect MSU to find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. These two teams have long histories of excellence in this tournament and coaches Tom Izzo and Rick Pitino are obviously considered a "wash" today. As we can tell by the spread, the oddsmakers think these teams are pretty evenly matched and that's the case for sure, they're similar in many ways and match-up well against each other as well. So where's the advantage? I think MSU has a certain toughness that Louisville lacks, it's a factor that can't be overlooked in my opinion. Also note that the Spartans are 14-8 ATS in their last 22 vs. good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less per contest and 17-11 ATS this year when playing the role of favorite. And note that Louisville is just 5-8 ATS in its last 13 vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 points or less per contest. I think this line should be a few points higher, great value with MICHIGAN STATE.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Notre Dame.

While I won't be so bold as to call for an outright upset here, I do think that the Irish can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe and look for it to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the large spread that it's been afforded tonight. Notre Dame legitimately feels that it has a shot at the outright upset: "We are America's team tomorrow," Irish coach Mike Brey said Friday. "And we love it, we certainly will take all that support. We've got a monumental challenge on our hands." After its 39 point win over WVU, I think this naturally sets up as a bit of letdown spot for the Wildcats in some small manner. The great equalizer at this point of the tournament is the 3-ball, and Notre Dame shoots it as good as anyone; I also believe the Irish's overall toughness is a factor in which can't be overlooked today. Also note that this is in fact a spot in which Kentucky has struggled in for bettors this year, just 12-13 ATS after allowing 60 points or less, while this is a position in which the Fighting Irish have excelled in by going 6-2 ATS as the underdog and 9-5 ATS after scoring 80 points or more. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to NOTRE DAME as the sharp move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Arizona.

Both of these teams have looked vulnerable at times during this tournament, but here they are in the Elite 8 and as we can tell by this spread, the oddsmakers believe these teams are pretty evenly matched. So where's the edge? I think Arizona's perimeter game and quickness will prove to be the difference and expect it to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. This is also a major revenge game for the Wildcats after falling 64-63 to Wisconsin in OT in last year's Elite 8; suffice it to say, this is a massive motivational factor which I believe the books have not properly taken into account today. Also note that Arizona is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less per contest, while Wisconsin is just 6-7 ATS in its last 13 in the same position. In my opinion, this spread is a little low, play on ARIZONA.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Oklahoma.

While I obviously feel that the outright win isn't out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect Oklahoma to at the very least, take this one down to the wire and to escape with the ATS victory with the handful of points that it's been afforded tonight. MSU coach Tom Izzo has the experience factor working for him, but I think that the Sooners will present significant match-up issues for his team on the court and that Oklahoma's depth will ultimately prove to be the difference maker today. Oklahoma's smothering defensive play will also come up big in my opinion, the Spartans face a well-oiled unit that's limited opponents to 38.6 field-goal percentage. MSU is coming off a big upset, 60-54 victory over second-seeded Virginia last week and I think this sets up as a classic let-down spot for it. As he does every time at this year, Izzo has his team performing at an extremely high level, but note that MSU is just 7-8 ATS this year after allowing 60 points or less, while Oklahoma is 12-10 ATS this year vs. good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less per contest. Play on the SOONERS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Duke.

For a number of different reasons I expect the "better" team to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS victory. Utes coach Larry Krystkowiak has 110 career wins, 68 in four seasons in Utah, which has advanced to the Sweet 16 for the first time in a decade. Blue Devils coach Mike Krzyzewski has made 22 Sweet 16 appearances and has won more than 1,000 games. While the game is played by the players, there's no question that at this level and stage of the tournament, coaching is also a factor which can't be underestimated. Utah scraped by Stephen F. Austin in the opening round and managed to find a way to beat Georgetown in the second, but I think will run into a buzzsaw here, Duke presents significant match-up issues for the Utes, especially in the back court. DUKE has excelled in this spot for bettors all year (12-5 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 points or less per contest, 5-1 ATS in all tournament games and 6-2 ATS in all neutral court contests) and I look for that string to continue here, lay the short points.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the New Orleans Pelicans.

For a number of different reasons I expect the home side to find a way to get the job done and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. New Orleans is still in the playoff hunt but has struggled of late and will no doubt have its hands full today with the Kings who have been trending in the opposite direction. The Pelicans have lost four straight and sit 3.5 games back of eighth seed Oklahoma City with 11 to play, most recently coming off a 107-100 setback to the Clippers on Sunday, before a frustrating 95-93 loss to the Rockets after blowing an early 17-point lead. I am not going to read too much into the Kings recent play of late though, they've bee playing much better defensively, most recently a 108-99 victory over the Suns on Wednesday, but note that this is a spot in which Sacramento has struggled in mightily for bettors all season, just 4-9 ATS off an upset win as an underdog and only 4-12 ATS in its last 16 vs. good offensive teams which score 99 plus points per contest. And note that this is a position in which the Pelicans have dominated in for bettors, 7-3 ATS in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent and 23-19 ATS vs. good offensive teams that score 99 plus points per contest. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to NEW ORLEANS as the sharp move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the Orlando Magic.

There is just 11 games left for Detroit and it will basically have to run the table as well as get some outside help to make the postseason. With that almost insurmountable task on the front of their collective brains, I think the Pistons are set up for a classic letdown here, the home side (and us!), can definitely take advantage. The Pistons have won three straight, but Charlotte, Brooklyn, Indiana and Boston all are in better shape than Detroit. Orlando has already been looking ahead to next season for quite some time now but would obviously love nothing more than to play spoiler today, despite losing eight of nine including Wednesday's 95-83 setback to Atlanta. Note that the Magic are also getting much closer to full strength after Tobias Harris returned last time out, he had 14 points in his return after a three-game absence; also Channing Frye and Dewayne Dedmon returned. Orlando took the first game of the season series, but the Pistons have taken the last two, this definitely sets up as revenge contest as well for the home side. Also note that Detroit is just 1-2 ATS this year as a road favorite of 3 points or less or pick, while Orlando is 27-24 ATS this season in revenging a loss vs. an opponent. The situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the MAGIC as the savvy move in this contest in my opinion.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Xavier.

While I won't be so bold as to call for an outright upset, I do think that Xavier can keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe and look for it to comfortably sneak in through the back door with the ample spread that it's been afforded today. Xavier sports a young line-up and obviously faces a daunting task against the season Wildcats, but I think the pressure is clearly on Arizona here and expect the Musketeers to take advantage of the situation. This selection however is mainly based on strong ATS trends that are clearly working in our favor today, note that Xavier is already 5-3 ATS in all neutral court games this season and 20-14 ATS in its last 34 vs. good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less per contest. And note that Arizona is just 4-5 ATS in all neutral court games this year. Look for XAVIER to play loose and for Arizona to get caught looking ahead.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Notre Dame.

I played this line the second it came out and got a PICK and it's since moved to +2, but regardless, I love this selection as I feel that the Irish own significant advantages in almost every facet and expect the team to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable victory. Notre Dame is 31-5 now and will look to reach the Elite Eight for the first time since 1979, advancing to the Sweet 16 after an extremely hard-fought 67-64 OT win over Butler in the Rnd. of 32. Wichita State continues to prove the naysayers wrong, most recently pulling off the upset over Kansas. Suffice it to say, I think this sets up as a letdown spot finally for the Shockers. These teams pit strengths, as Wichita State smothers its opponents with stifling defensive play, while the Irish will be looking to push the pace from the outset, its reputation is built on its free-flowing offense and I think it will be the difference maker today. Notre Dame's prolific outside shooting game is going to stretch the Shockers like no other teams has to this point, also note that Wichita State is a poor 2-5 ATS in all tournament games this season and 1-2 ATS vs. good offensive teams which average 77 plus points per contest. And note that Notre Dame is 5-2 ATS as an underdog this year and 4-3 ATS in all tournament games. I think the IRISH are the more complete all around team and expect this depth and ability to ultimately prove to be the difference in the final outcome.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Wisconsin.

For a number of different reasons I expect the "better" team to come in focused, to control this one from the outset and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Oregon lost to Wisconsin 85-77 in last year's round of 32 in Milwaukee, going on a 25-9 run to wipe out a 12-point halftime deficit. The Badgers are the No. 1 seed in the West Region and defeated Coastal Carolina 86-72, while Oregon held on to beat Oklahoma State 79-73. I just can't see the Ducks matching up against the size of the Badgers today though, whose front-line consists of 7-footer Frank Kaminsky, 6-9 Dekker and 6-8 Nigel Hayes; note that Freshman Jordan Bell at 6-9 is the only Oregon starter bigger than 6-6. Also note that only one starter from last year's loss is still with the Ducks this season, while the core of Wisconsin's winning team remains. This is a great situational play, the BADGERS enjoy advantages in all phases and in every position, I think that the writing is on the wall and a blowout is in the cards.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Oklahoma.

The Flyers started this tournament off with a Final Four contest on their home floor and then followed that up with a win over Providence late Friday at Nationwide Arena in Columbus, which is just 80 miles from their campus. Oklahoma has been preparing for this game as a true road contest: "Fair or unfair. That doesn't even come up," coach Lon Kruger said Saturday. "We're playing Dayton with a crowd that's going to be pro-Dayton. We understand that it adds to the challenge." It's been a great run for Dayton, but I think it will finally stumble here, Oklahoma is the bigger and deeper team and I think it's this versatility which will prove to be too much for the Flyers to match-up to. Also note that the Flyers are in fact a poor 1-2 ATS in their last three as a neutral court underdog of 3.5 to 6 points, while Oklahoma is 3-2 ATS in its last five as a neutral court favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Expect the SOONERS to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER Michigan State.

For a number of different reasons I expect the Spartans to keep this one close enough to at the very least sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the handful of points they've been afforded. These teams battled in last year's NCAA Tournament regional semifinal at Madison Square Garden and Michigan State would knock-off top-seeded Virginia 61-59: "We know, there's definitely got to be a revenge factor for them," MSU guard Travis Trice said Saturday. "It would be the same thing for us if a team put us out last year." As they seemingly do every year, the Spartans are playing their best ball of the entire season at the most opportune of times, Michigan State knocked off a tough Georgia team and I believe has a mental edge in today's contest as well. Virginia gets the job done with smothering defensive play, but MSU would flip the script on the Cavs last year, holding them to 35.1 percent shooting. Note that Michigan State is 8-4 ATS this year vs. good defensive teams, while Virginia is just 1-3 ATS this season when playing on a neutral court. Two proud, confident teams that are going to battle down to the wire, in this situation, all signs point to the points as the savvy move, play on MICHIGAN STATE.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Notre Dame.

For a number of different reasons I expect the "better" overall team to comfortably pull away down the stretch for the ATS cover. These schools are separated by just 150 miles but have faced off just once in the last 20 years. Butler finished 23-10 while the third-seeded Irish were 30-5, capturing the ACC Tournament title this season after finishing just 15-17 last. The Bulldogs get the job done with a hard-nosed defense, but ultimately I think the senior players on Notre Dame will break through and produce against the unit, note that Butler would hang on to beat Texas last time out despite making just five shots in the second half. While the Bulldogs will have the services of second-leading scorer Roosevelt Jones today after he hyper-extended his knee in the win over the Longhorns, he'll be far from 100% effective. Frankly, that's not good news for a team that already struggles to put points on the board. Notre Dame has one of the countries most efficient offenses and it's been even better in recent weeks, averaging eight 3-pointers a game. I think this spread should be closer to double digits, expect the IRISH to push the pace of this one from the outset and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on NC State.

While I won't be so bold as to call for the outright upset, I do think the battle tested Wolfpack are getting little respect from the oddsmakers here and think they'll keep this one a lot more competitive than what we're being led to believe. Of course Villanova is the better all around team, but the postseason is about coming together and working as a cohesive unit at the right time and that's definitely something that NC State is showing right now. The Wolfpack will hardly be intimidated in this spot either, they've already toppled Duke, Louisville and North Carolina this season: "We have to approach every game like it's a Duke or a Carolina," guard Trevor Lacey confirmed. Villanova is at its best when shooting the 3 ball effectively, but NC State has been getting the job done from behind the arc as well of late and I think can match shot for shot today. Note that the Wolfpack are 8-5 ATS this year vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 points or less per contest, while Villanova is just 2-3 ATS this year when playing with one or less days rest. Grab as many points as you can with NC STATE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* BEATDOWN on Providence.

For a number of different reasons I expect Providence to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night and to ultimately pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. I actually played on Dayton ATS in its First Four matchup, and while it would secure the SU victory, it would lose ATS. For the most part, I don't like to "flip-flop" against a team, but in this case I think that the Flyers "luck" will run out here. Dayton comes in tired and distracted today, it will be playing its fifth game in the last eight days, traveling from Brooklyn to Columbus with a stop over at home in the process. This is a tough match-up for the Flyers no matter what the situational circumstances are, facing sixth-seeded Providence and Big East player of the year Chris Dunn. The Friars are in the Tournament for a second straight year and will be eager for a victory here after losing in the first round last season, letting a lead slip away vs. North Carolina and falling by two as an 11 seed. Providence's depth and size will prove to be just too much for the Flyers who do not have a player taller than 6-6 on the roster. I think that the writing is on the wall and an ATS beatdown is in the cards, in my opinion all signs do indeed point to PROVIDENCE as the sharp move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Iowa.

AAA Sports will have their full analysis for this selection posted shortly. No later than 6 hours before game time.

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on Georgia.

While I obviously feel that the outright win isn't out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect Georgia to at the very least, sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the hand full of points its been afforded here. Both teams head into the NCAA Tournament with momentum and confidence, MSU would rebound down the stretch of the regular season and make it all the way to the Big Ten Tournament Conference Championship game, while Georgia set a program record with six SEC road victories. Also note that this is a position in which the Bulldogs have dominated in for bettors this year, 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog with six outright SU upsets over that stretch. Georgia has struggled in the postseason for a while, but was money down the stretch for bettors, it was 19-12-1 ATS on the year, finishing the campaign with a 12-6 SU/ATS run, which included going 5-2 SU/ATS over the final seven outings. Michigan State is a well coached and experienced team, but was just 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games as a favorite of six points or more. I think this one comes down to the wire, play on GEORGIA.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* MONEY-LINE UPSET on Stephen F. Austin.

An upset is brewing in the second round, Stephen F. Austin is not getting much respect here and I think can steal one from the overrated Utes. The Lumberjacks would knock off No. 5 seed VCU in the opening round, 77-75 in OT last year and comes in with plenty of momentum and confidence this season as well after beating Sam Houston State 83-70 in the final of the Southland Conference Tournament. Stephen F. Austin would finish 29-4 overall this year and won its last nine straight heading into the tournament. Obviously Utah presents a big challenge, it was 24-8 overall and won an at-large bid after falling to Oregon in the semifinals of the Pac-12 Conference tournament. I think this sets up as a bit of a letdown spot for Utah though, which has to be feeling contented being back in the tournament for the first time since 2009. Momentum is a funny thing, a tangible thing. I think Stephen F. Austin is completely undervalued in this matchup, 15 of its conference victories came by double digits and there was a 19-game winning streak as well, in total the team would finish with an average of 79.5 PPG to rank 19th in the country, as well as a national-best average of 17.8 assists per game. The value is to good to turn down here, play the underdogs on the MONEY-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* ASSASSIN on Cincinnati.

I jumped on this line the second it came out and got +2, it's since come down from there, but regardless, I think that Cincinnati has a few advantages working in its favor today and expect the Bearcats to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. This is the fifth year in a row that Cincinnati has played in the NCAA Tournament and comes into the fray having won five of its last six games after finishing the regular season tied for third in the AAC. Both of these teams get the job done with a tough nosed defensive unit, the Bearcats rank sixth in the country in scoring defense, giving up just 55.3 PPG. The Boilermakers have the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year on their side in junior guard Rapheal Davis (note though that Davis is just one of two Purdue players averaging double digits in scoring). Obviously these teams are pretty evenly matched, but I give the slight nod to the Bearcats defense, but also a big nod to their overall experience; note that UC is 1-1 all-time at the KFC Yum! Center, most recently knocking off UofL 69-66 in its last road game vs. the Cardinals on January 30th, 2014. Play on CINCINNATI!

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Notre Dame.

For a number of different reasons I expect the Fighting Irish to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Notre Dame was left out of the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2009 last year and definitely won't be taking anything for granted today. Obviously the Irish come in with plenty of momentum and confidence after winning the ACC Tournament championship. Northeastern would win the CAA championship, but now faces it's toughest opponent of the year. Notre Dame has a long history of failing in the NCAA Tournament, this team is expected to break that trend. Northeastern on the other hand is back to the Big Dance for the first time since 1991 and I think will just be happy to be here. The Huskies have to be feeling pretty satisfied after the way they won their conference tournament as well, after finishing in a four way tie for first place in the CAA during the regular season and was the No. 3 seed in the conference tournament, they would then become just the fourth team in CAA history to beat the top two seeds on the way to the championship. This is a definite letdown spot for the mid-major, I think the writing is on the wall and a blowout is in the cards, lay the points with NOTRE DAME.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Dayton.

Dayton plays on its home floor and it's a factor which obviously can't be overlooked today and in my opinion will ultimately prove to be the difference maker. These two 25-8 schools go head to head in the First Four on a team's home floor for the first time since 1987. The Flyers are 16-0 at home this year and have won 21 overall at UD Arena, which is the seventh-longest active streak in Division I: "When we're playing a home game, we have about as good of a home-court advantage as anyone does in college basketball," UD coach Archie Miller assessed earlier in the week. "But I'll also tell you that anyone who is billing this as a home game or a walk-through, I just think they're really underappreciating how good Boise State is. If we were playing a regular-season game at home versus Boise State, you'd be sick to your stomach because you know what you're in for." These two teams are pretty evenly matched on the court, both are smaller overall and each relies on determination, quickness and depth to win. I also don't think that experience can be overlooked though, note that Boise State is 0-6 all time in the tournament, losing in the First Four in 2013 to La Salle 80-71, while Dayton is 17-17 overall, reaching the Sweet 16 last year by beating Ohio State, Syracuse and Stanford before losing to Florida. Experience and home court advantage, these two big situational factors are the difference, play on DAYTON.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Mississippi.

While I obviously feel that the outright win isn't out of the question here, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect Ole Miss to at the very least keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. The winner of this game goes on to Jacksonville Florida to take on sixth-seeded Xavier on Thursday. With a spread under 5, obviously the oddsmakers feel these teams are pretty evenly matched and that's definitely the case as each is going to push the pace from the outset. BYU averaged 83.6 points per game, while Ole Miss averaged 72.6. The Runnin Rebels though would connect on 77.8 percent of their free throws, which ranked third in the country and I think will be a crucial factor in the latter stages. Also note that Ole Miss has excelled in this position for bettors all year, 9-2 ATS as the underdog, 3-1 ATS in all neutral court games and 3-1 ATS vs. good offensive teams which score 77-plus points per contest. And note that BYU is just 2-4 ATS in all neutral court games and just 1-3 ATS when playing with five or six days of rest. Play on MISSISSIPPI.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Detroit Pistons.

Detroit has lost ten straight games SU and would also fall 95-88 to the Grizzlies in Memphis back on November 15th. Memphis is contending for the best record in the West and is coming off a 92-81 victory at home over Denver just last night. Which team do you think will be the "hungrier" today? In my opinion, this is a do or die game for Detroit and because of that, I expect the home side to at the very least keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door with the hand full of points that it's been afforded. Detroit has actually lost ten straight in this series. The Pistons though get a big boost today with the expected return of Andre Drummond, who suffered a mild concussion in the team's loss to the Jazz on Monday, as well as welcoming back Tayshaun Prince, who has been dealing with a hip issue. Memphis has started to show some cracks in the armor as well, it committed 20 turnovers in last night's sloppy victory and is averaging 19.8 such miscues over its last four, 6.8 more than its average entering that stretch. Also note that the Grizzlies have dropped three of four on the road and are just 7-8 ATS this year when playing on back-to-back days, just 16-18 ATS overall away from friendly confines, only 3-5 ATS after allowing 85 points or less and a brutal 9-20 ATS this season vs. teams with losing records. And note that Detroit is 4-3 ATS when playing with two days of rest, 15-14 ATS in all non-conference games and 17-13 ATS vs. teams with winning records. While I do believe the outright win isn't out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can with the PISTONS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on Pittsburgh.

Neither of these teams were very good for bettors in the regular season and with a spread under 5, obviously the book makers feel that they're pretty evenly matched. However, for a number of different reasons I expect Pittsburgh to find a way to get the job done and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. The winner of this game advances to take on the winner of No. 1 seed Temple and No. 8 Bucknell. George Washington is big and is one of the better rebounding teams in the country and Pitt has had difficulties with schools like that throughout the season, but I think the Panthers depth will prove to be the difference today as the team has five players averaging at least 8.5 points. GW looked great in mid January, but the wheels came off the bus as it would lose eight of its final 13. Ultimately I think the Panthers up-tempo style will be too much for the Colonials to handle and look for them to take care of business in the 'Burgh; play on PITTSBURGH.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* REVENGE-DESTRUCTION on the Minnesota Timberwolves.

The Spurs are coming off a heart-breaking 128-125 OT home loss to Cleveland on Thursday, snapping a six-game win streak and I believe will have a letdown here vs. the lowly and undermanned Timberwolves. These teams have played three times this season and the Spurs have taken all three games, both SU and ATS. The triple revenge factor comes into play for sure. The Wolves are coming off a 113-99 setback at Oklahoma City on Friday and despite being down a couple of key players, this is in fact a spot in which Minnesota has performed extremely well in for bettors this year, a fantastic 12-7 ATS in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent and 14-13 ATS after three or more consecutive SU losses. And note that San Antonio is just 2-8 ATS this season when playing two days of rest and 11-14 ATS after scoring 105 points or more. While I won't be so bold as to call for an outright upset, I do think the conditions are finally right for MINNESOTA to keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe as I expect the visitors to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the healthy amount of points they've been afforded today.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Orlando Magic.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are a pretty good team and they're coming off one of their most satisfying victories of the entire year (a 128-125 OT victory over the defending champion Spurs in which Kyrie Irving scored 57 points). That fact alone would make this a pretty good spot bet on the Magic as there's no doubt that this sets up as a classic "letdown" spot for the visitors, but there are a couple of other extremely strong situational factors which also come into play here and are the reason behind the 10* top play ranking. Not surprisingly, this is also a double revenge game for the Magic which have lost both games this season, both SU and ATS. In fact, to call this a revenge game is a pretty big understatement as Orlando has lost nine straight SU in this series, while going 0-10 ATS. Clearly the Magic players will be "hungry" to break this slide. And note, not only does this set up as a letdown position for the visitors after the massive win over San Antonio, but it also sets up as a "look ahead" spot, as LeBron James and company will be at Miami on Monday night. Suffice it to say, it's not too hard to imagine the Cavs looking past the lowly Wolves tonight. Three big time situational factors collide in this one, grab as many points as you can with the MAGIC.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on Harvard.

This is a one-game playoff as both teams finished with identical 11-3 conference records, the winner will advance to the NCAA Tournament. The Crimson have played in three straight Big Dances and I believe their tough defensive play will prove to be the difference today. As we can tell by the spread, these two teams are pretty evenly matched, they'd split the season series with each team winning on the others court. They say that defense wins championships and I think that will be the case today, Harvard led the Ivy League in scoring defense in giving up just 57.5 PPG; not surprisingly, the Bulldogs game in second in allowing only 60.6 PPG. A tough nose defensive unit, combined with a ton of experience tips the scales in favor of HARVARD today.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* BLOCKBUSTER on Temple.

While I obviously feel that the outright win isn't out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can in this one. Temple was led by Will Cummings in yesterday's 80-75 win over Memphis, while SMU defeated ECU 74-68 behind 20 points and five assists from Nic Moore. The Owls get the added motivation today of playing with double revenge: SMU would overcome a 13-point second half deficit to win at Temple 60-55 on January 14th, while in the rematch the Mustangs would pull away over the final three minutes to beat the Owls 67-58 on February 19th. There's one other key motivational/psychological factor working in our favor, and that is the fact that the Owls are still on the bubble for inclusion into the NCAA tournament, while SMU is already considered a lock from the AAC. These two crucial motivational/situational factors are the difference in this one, play on TEMPLE.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Wisconsin.

I played on Wisconsin yesterday and the Badgers would come up just short for us ATS; suffice it to say, I definitely expect a better performance from the No. 1 seed today and look for it to easily pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. The Badgers started flat-footed yesterday and I simply don't see that happening twice in a row. With a victory in the conference tournament, Wisconsin will assure itself a No. 1 seed at the Big Dance. Big man Frank Kaminsky started slowly, but would finish with 16 points and 12 boards. Note that Kaminsky has owned the Boilermakers throughout his career as well, averaging 19.7 points on 65.4 percent shooting in helping his team win the last three meetings. I think this sets up as a natural letdown spot for Purdue, with yesterday's 64-59 win over Penn State on Friday, the team has almost assuredly secured its spot in the field of 68. A great situational play in my opinion: Wisconsin's slow start in yesterday's win over Michigan will have the team focused to start and with the pre-tournament jitters now firmly in the rear-view mirror, the Badgers will unquestionably be ready to play from the opening tip; coupled with the fact that the Boilermakers come in satisfied, knowing that if they win or lose, they'll be heading to the big tournament. Play on WISCONSIN.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Wisconsin.

The top-ranked Badgers play their first game of the Big Ten Conference Tournament and I think will find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon, pulling away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. The Badgers can boost their resume for a No. 1 seed at the Big Dance by winning the Conference Tournament and it's this fact which leads me to believe we'll see Wisconsin at its best today. The Badgers come in with plenty of momentum after finishing the regular season with three straight wins, including a 72-48 victory at then-No. 23 Ohio State on Sunday. One player to keep your eyes on today is Frank Kaminsky, who was named the Big Ten player of the year. Kaminsky though is hardly a one many show as Sam Dekker and Nigel Hayes will also present significant match-up issues for the Wolverines today. Michigan gave Wisconsin a run for its money on January 24th, the Badgers would gut out the 69-64 OT win, so suffice it to say, I do not foresee a mental letdown today from the No. 1 seed. The Wolverines routed Illinois 73-55 in the conference's opening round, but note that Michigan is a poor 5-7 ATS in its last 12 vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 points or less per contest. And note that Wisconsin is already 2-1 ATS this year in all neutral court games and 9-6 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 points or less per contest. I believe that the writing is on the wall and a blowout is in the cards, play on the BADGERS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Both teams come in hot but I think a focused and motivated LeBron James and company will find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The Cavs certainly come in with plenty of momentum after winning four of their last five, Cleveland is averaging 102.9 points on 45.6 percent shooting, while allowing 98.4 points on 45.1 percent shooting. James is averaging 26 points and 7.3 assists; Kyrie Irving is averaging 21.4 points and 5.2 assists, while big man Kevin Love is grabbing 10.2 boards. If Cleveland has had one weakness this season it's clearly been its play on the road, but the Cavs come into this game playing their best ball of the year, they've won 19 of their last 20 games SU when topping 100 points. After a slow start, the defending champs have won six straight and are averaging 101.6 points on 45.7 percent shooting while giving up 97.4 points on 44.4 percent shooting. The usual suspects continue to lead the way, Kawhi Leonard is averaging 15.7 points and 7.5 boards, while guard Tony Paker is averaging 14.7 points and 4.9 assists. Note that Manu Ginobili is questionable with an illness in this one. This play however is based mainly on strong ATS trends as note that the Cavs are 15-13 ATS this season in all non-conference games and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 vs. good offensive teams that average 99-plus points per contest. Conversely, note that San Antonio is just 11-12 ATS in non-conference contests this season and just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 vs. good offensive teams that score 99 plus points per game. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to CLEVELAND as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on Washington.

I think this is a few too many points to be giving up here as I believe Washington will keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The Cardinal backed their way into the postseason by losing their final three of the campaign, most recently getting destroyed by 22 against Arizona. Washington on the other hand comes in with nothing to lose and plenty of momentum and confidence after an upset victory against then-No. 13 Utah in its finale (trust me, I know the Huskies had lost ten of their previous 11, but recent performance is a major factor in my selection process for this particular game). This is also a double revenge scenario for Washington which lost by eight points in OT on January 4th to Stanford and by ten points in regulation 18 days later. One player to keep your eyes on today for the Huskies is Nigel Williams-Goss who had 28 points in the regular-season finale vs. Utah, he'll be matched up against Stanford's Chasson Randle, who averaged 19.1 points in the regular season. The postseason is all about upsets, I think the HUSKIES have enough situational and motivational factors working in their favor today to warrant a play of this size.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* BEATDOWN on Texas Tech.

While I won't be so bold as to call for an outright upset here, I do think this is a few too many points to be giving up and expect the Red Raiders to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what I deem to be a healthy amount of points afforded to them in this one. Texas is on the bubble for the Big Dance and a one and done in the conference tournament vs. Texas Tech would be the final nail in the coffin, suffice it to say there's some pressure on the Longhorns today. Conversely, the Red Raiders have nothing to lose and would obviously love to play spoiler. Texas Tech also plays with revenge after losing the regular season series with Texas; note that coach Tubby Smith has seen improvement from his team despite losing seven of their last eight in the regular season: "Over the last five games, we have made strides," Smith assessed earlier in the week. "We are shooting better, we have defended better and we have grown up a lot. If we play within ourselves and cut down on our mistakes, anything can happen in the conference tournament." Texas is clearly the better team, but I think this is a good spot to take advantage of as I think the Longhorns get caught looking past the lowly RED RAIDERS today.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* ASSASSIN on Colorado.

For a number of different reasons I expect the Buffs to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. This is a great situational play, it's true that Colorado is the 10th seed, but note that Oregon State severely backed its way into the Pac-12 Tournament, it lost six of its final seven games and enters this contest down to seven available scholarship players. One player to keep your eyes on today is the Buffaloes Josh Scott, who has averaged 22.3 points and nine boards over his last three games. This is a fantastic play in my opinion from a situational stand point, but it's also a great move from a motivational angle as well as Colorado plays with the revenge factor after falling 72-58 at Oregon State on February 21st (and note, if history is any precedence, then the Buffs have to be loving their chances today as Colorado has advanced past the first round in the Pac-12 tournament since joining the league four years ago). Colorado comes in with some momentum here as well as it would win two of its final three games; note that Scott scored a career-high 32 points and grabbed 12 boards in last Saturday's 96-91 OT loss to Washington State (and note that the team is shooting 51.4 percent collectively over the last three games). The Beavers are going to have their hands full with this suddenly surging Colorado team in my opinion, note that Oregon State has been outrebounded in 13 straight games and lost 11 of its last 13 games away from friendly confines this season. In my opinion, the writing is on the wall and a blowout is in the cards, play on the BUFFALOES.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* ART OF THE GAME on Auburn.

I think Auburn will find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The Tigers get a big boost today as leading scorer Antoine Mason, who sat the final three games of the regular season because of the death of his father, former NBA great Anthony Mason, will be back in the fold. Not surprisingly, Auburn would go 0-3 in those contests and finish the regular season on an overall 0-6 slide. The Bulldogs can empathize, they had lost five straight until a regular season ending 52-43 win over Missouri on Saturday. Note that it was the first time that Mississippi State had held an SEC opponent under 50 points since 2008. A couple of horrible teams, but the Tigers have a definite motivational factor working in their favor after falling 78-71 to the Bulldogs at home on January 21st (note, it was Mississippi State's best offensive game of the entire year and suffice it to say I have a hard time imagining the team duplicating that rare adroit effort). With Mason back in the line-up, I look for the Tigers to ride the wave of emotion and to pull away down the stretch for the victory. Play on AUBURN.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* SUPER-BLOWOUT on Pittsburgh.

These two teams enter the postseason going in opposite directions, NC State would win five of its last six, while Pittsburgh would drop its final three. However, that was then and this is now, the postseason tournaments are here and its a fresh start for everyone and while I obviously feel that the outright win isn't out of the question here, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. The Wolfpack has been impressive down the stretch, but note that there is some room to read between the lines with Pittsburgh's end of season slide as the Panthers would lose those three games by just a combined 16 points: "We're a better team than what we played this last week," Pittsburgh coach Jamie Dixon said after the Panthers lost 61-52 Saturday at Florida State. Pittsburgh struggled defensively, but ranks ninth nationally in assists per game. The Wolfpack would get the job done this year with tough defensive play, a strength which helped mask a clear deficiency on the offensive end. Pittsburgh though plays with revenge today after falling 68-50 to NC State back on January 3rd, it was the Panthers worst shooting performance of the year and I believe that fact just adds fuel to the fire. Play on PITTSBURGH.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* COAST-TO-COAST BEATDOWN on the Detroit Pistons.

AAA Sports will have their full analysis for this selection posted shortly. No later than 6 hours before game time.

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Georgia Tech.

As we can tell by the point-spread, these two teams are pretty evenly matched and while I obviously believe that the outright win isn't out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Georgia Tech plays with revenge here after falling 64-62 to the Eagles on January 25th. Georgia Tech would lose its last four games of the regular season, twice to UNC and once to Louisville, both teams ranked in the top 20. BC earned the 12th seed after beating Wake Forest 79-61 on Saturday and enters the ACC on a three-game win streak. This is the third year in a row that these two cellar dwellers have faced off in the first round of the league tournament, the Eagles won 84-64 two years ago, while Tech prevailed in OT, 73-70, last season. Despite being down a couple of players, Georgia Tech still matches up well with Boston College and from a trend based stand point, this play is very strong as note that the Yellow Jackets are 3-0 ATS this year after allowing 80 points or more and 9-6 ATS when playing the role of underdog. And note that the Eagles have struggled in this spot for bettors, just 2-3 ATS this season when playing on a neutral court. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to GEORGIA TECH as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BEATDOWN on Akron.

The 14-15 Northern Illinois Huskies are ready to battle the 18-13 Akron Zips. NIU has won four straight has has five players averaging at least 8.1 points. Akron on the other hand comes in having lost six of its last seven and has four players averaging at least 5.8 points. The postseason is a whole new ball game, I think Akron will be the "hungrier" team here. NIU averages 65.5 points per game and is giving up 66.3, while Akron averages 68.1 points and allows 64.5. These two teams are pretty evenly matched, but the Zips play with revenge after dropping the regular season meeting with the Huskies, both SU and ATS; I also don't think that home court advantage can be overlooked, note that Akron is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in front of the home town crowd, also 6-2 ATS off a loss vs. a conference rival. In my opinion, the spread should be a little larger, play on AKRON.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* MAC ATTACK on Ball State.

While I won't be so bold as to call for an outright upset here, I do think that the visitors can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe and look for Ball State to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what I feel to be a healthy amount of points afforded to it here. The Green Falcons are 19-11 overall, including 11-7 in league action. Bowling Green though backed its way into the Tournament by losing four of its last six. The Cardinals are just 7-22 overall and 2-16 in MAC play, but I think have a big opportunity to take advantage of a somewhat distracted Bowling Green side; note that the team failed to get the triple-bye to the semi-finals and did not in fact get a bye whatsoever. Clearly this is a major disappointment for the team. Bowling Green now has to play five games in six days if it's going to win this tournament. Ball State on the other hand has nothing to lose, can play without any pressure whatsoever and also comes in having the double revenge factor working in its favor after dropping both regular season meetings. Also note that Bowling Green is likely to be without the services of big man Richaun Holmes to injury; if Holmes does play, he'll be far from 100% and pretty ineffective anyways. Ball State can take advantage, it's shown promise of late anyways, it would lose its regular season finale to Northern Illinois in OT, 71-67. To sum it up, I think Bowling Green gets caught looking ahead and BALL STATE takes full advantage.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* REVENGE DESTRUCTION on the Brooklyn Nets.

For a number of different reasons I expect this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. Brooklyn is still in playoff contention and will be looking to establish itself against a Jazz team which has been much better defensively of late; in my opinion, this is a great situational play as I expect the home side to push the pace of this game from the outset and note that the Nets will be especially motivated here after consecutive home defeats, a 115-91 setback to Charlotte on Wednesday and a 108-100 OT loss to Phoenix on Friday. The Jazz have been surprisingly good on the defensive end of the floor since the All Star break, but I think will have their hands full today vs. the highly focused Nets which play with revenge after falling 108-73 in Utah on January 24th. And from a trend based stand point, this play is about as strong as you could possibly ask for as note that Utah is a poor 13-14 ATS in its last 27 after allowing 85 points or less, while Brooklyn is 16-11 ATS vs. teams with losing records this season, 11-8 ATS after allowing 105 points or more, 14-11 ATS in non-conference games and 17-12 ATS in revenging a loss vs. an opponent. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the NETS as the savvy move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* BLOCKBUSTER on Marquette.

A couple of bottom feeders go head to head today; in the finale for both teams I think that home court advantage can't be overlooked and expect this situational factor to ultimately decide the outcome at the end of the afternoon. DePaul has lost six straight and nine of its last ten and is going to miss the NCAA Tournament for an 11th year unless it miraculously wins the conference tournament. The Golden Eagles can empathize, they've lost six straight and 12 of their last 13, most recently coming off a horrible effort in a loss to St. John's on Wednesday. The Blue Demons are ripe for the picking here though in my opinion, they're one of the worst rebounding teams in the country, only 17 teams average fewer, most recently getting outrebounded 36-19 in a loss to No. 23 Butler in the team's final home game of the year. The Golden Eagles can now look ahead to the future and play their hearts out one last time in front of the home town crowd, their young players have shown promise and the team will have the extra motivation of playing with the revenge factor after a a three-point loss at DePaul on New Years Eve. Note that the Blue Demons are just 1-4 ATS this year vs. teams with losing records, while Marquette is 15-9 ATS in its last 24 after scoring 60 point or less. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the GOLDEN EAGLES as the sharp move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* BLOCKBUSTER on Wake Forest.

While I obviously feel that the outright win isn't out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the Demon Deacons to at the very least, sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Wake Forest will surely be motivated here after getting hammered 94-51 at No. 3 ranked Duke on Wednesday in Durham; note one bright spot was the play of Codi Miller-McIntyre which led WF with 20 points on 9 of 13 shooting, as well as five assists, four boards and three steals. The Deacons also play with revenge here after falling 80-72 to BC back on March 1st, 2014, the Eagles would rally in the second half for the come from behind victory. This play however is mainly based on strong ATS trends, note that Wake Forest is 10-9 ATS when playing the role of underdog this year and 9-8 ATS in all conference games. And note that Boston College is just 1-4 ATS this season after allowing 60 points or less. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to WAKE FOREST as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Florida.

While I won't be so bold as to call for an outright upset here, I do think that the Gators will come in highly motivated today and expect the visitors to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Kentucky is on the verge of its first unbeaten regular season ever, so the pressure is on the home side to deliver the goods. Florida would obviously love nothing more than to play spoiler, there's no question in my mind that the home side is going to get the Gators' best shot today. Kentucky got all it could handle in last month's win in Gainseville; the Wildcats have looked liked World beaters at times and pretty pedestrian in others all year and have clearly over achieved this season. One player to keep your eyes on today is Florida leading scorer Michael Frazier, who is averaging 13.2 PPG. There's a lot of pressure on the home side today, while conversely, the visitors have nothing to lose. I think this definitely works in our favor. Note that Florida is 8-4 ATS this year vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 points or less per contest and 4-2 ATS when playing the role of underdog. And note that Kentucky is just 8-9 ATS this year as a home favorite of 12 points or more and just 7-9 ATS vs. conference opponents. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to FLORIDA as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* BLOCKBUSTER on Seton Hall.

It's the final regular season game for both teams and while I won't be so bold as to call for an outright victory, I do feel that the visitors can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe and will ultimately recommend grabbing as many points as you can. After a big win over Creighton, Seton Hall would fall apart down the stretch in a loss to Providence last time out, but I think will be ready to play today. The Pirates are 16-13 overall, but just 3-8 on the road this year, the Hoyas will be a tough test as they're 12-3 in front of the home town crowd. Seton Hall had the game vs. the Friars locked up, but a defensive lapse over the final 10 minutes of the second half would prove to be its undoing; clearly the team knows that it will have to play a full 40 minutes of intense defense today. Georgetown is the bigger team, it will be a struggle for Seton Hall down low, but it's necessary for the team to be aggressive in the paint today, a consistent effort from start to finish is paramount. Note though, this is in fact a spot in which the Pirates have dominated in this season, a great 12-9 ATS vs. teams with winning records and 3-2 ATS in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent. And note, this is a position in which the Hoyas have struggled in all year, just 5-7 ATS in all home games, only 3-7 ATS off a win vs. a conference rival and a poor 2-6 ATS after allowing 60 points or less. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to SETON HALL as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports 

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Syracuse.

When a team has to endure an off-field issue, it can obviously go one of two ways. Will Jim Boeheim's suspension and problems be a distraction for the Orange, or will Syracuse make it a rallying point in its final game of the season? In my opinion, it will be the latter and while I obviously feel that the outright win isn't out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the Orange to at the very least keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Syracuse will be looking to play spoiler today, NC State is still fighting for seeding in the ACC and NCAA Tournaments and is coming off a 66-61 win at Clemson on Tuesday. Note though that this is a spot in which the Wolfpack have struggled in all year, a poor 5-7 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 points or less per contest. And note that this is a position in which Syracuse has done well in, 5-4 ATS as an underdog and 3-2 ATS after scoring 60 points or less. Play on SYRACUSE.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Toronto Raptors.

In my opinion, this is a great situational play. Toronto has been scuffling of late and embarks on a tough three-game road trip most likely without the services of leading scorer Kyle Lowry. If Lowry doesn't play, it's not anything this incredibly deep team can't compensate for though. In fact, if Lowry does sit, I think it'll be a rallying point for the rest, a definite motivational/psychological factor that we can take advantage of. Lowry has sat the last three contests but is travelling with the team on this trip, with games in OKC and San Antonio upcoming. With consecutive games vs. playoff hopefuls on the horizon, starting this trip off on the "right foot" against the 26-33 Hornets (just 14-16 at home), will be paramount for the visitors today. And it may come as a surprise, but this is a revenge game for Toronto as the Hornet have in fact won five straight over the Raptors overall and seven straight in the series in front of the home town crowd. Charlotte is clinging to the eighth spot in the East and has won three straight, but I think will have a letdown here, as note this is a spot in which the Hornets have already struggled in for bettors this season, coming into tonight's game having gone a poor 3-6 ATS after scoring 105 points or more in their previous contest, just 3-4 ATS after three or more consecutive victories and only 3-7 ATS in their last ten vs. poor defensive teams which allow 99 plus points per contest. The Raptors need to rally here, they've lost six of their last seven, most recently a 120-112 setback to Cleveland on Wednesday, Toronto coming up just short after rallying from a 19-point second half deficit to take the lead at one point. With or without Lowry, I think the RAPTORS come to play today and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* PAC-12 ASSASSIN on California.

For a number of different reasons I expect the visitors to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. I'm not going to be so bold as to call for an outright massive upset, but I do definitely feel this is a good spot wager for us to take advantage of as I look for California to comfortably sneak in through the backdoor down the stretch with the healthy amount of points afforded to it in this one. Arizona still has plenty to play for tonight as it looks to wrap up the outright Pac-12 regular-season title with a victory in this one, but I think this will just add incentive for the visitors to raise the level of their play. Arizona is most recently coming off a hard-fought 63-57 win over the Utes on Saturday and will finish the season by hosting Stanford on Saturday. The Golden Bears are 17-12 overall and come in with plenty of momentum themselves after a 73-56 victory over Oregon State to end a three-game slide in Sunday's home finale; note that Cal has in fact won six of nine after dropping to 1-6 in the conference following a 73-50 home defeat to Arizona on January 24th (note that the difference was clearly at the charity stripe as the Wildcats would outscore the Bears 23-1 at the foul line in that one). Note that Cal is 5-4 ATS this year in true road games, 4-2 ATS off a win vs. a conference rival and 3-1 ATS in its last four vs. good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less per contest. Grab as many points as you can with CALIFORNIA.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* REVENGE DESTRUCTION on Florida Atlantic.

Revenge is a powerful motivating factor and it's something that can't be ignored here, while I obviously feel that the outright win isn't out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. UAB is second in the Conference USA and is coming off a 100-95 win over MTSU on Saturday. FAU is just 8-19 overall and only 1-15 in league action, but will look to avenge the earlier blowout loss and play spoiler today. This play is mainly based on strong trend based factors though, as note that UAB is already a poor 1-2 ATS this season as a road favorite in the 3.5 to 6 points range and just 8-11 ATS after scoring 80 points or more. And note that Florida Atlantic is 2-0 ATS this year as a home dog of 3.5 to 6 points, also 5-4 ATS in all true home games and 9-3 ATS vs. teams with winning records. In my opinion, the situation and the trends both point to FAU as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* WEST-COAST EXPRESS on the Memphis Grizzlies.

While I obviously feel that the outright win isn't out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the visiting side to at the very least sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the handful of points that it's been afforded in this one. Houston is coming off a 104-96 loss in Atlanta on Tuesday, blowing a 14 point half time lead. Granted, James Harden wasn't in the line-up because of a one-game suspension, but it still makes today's contest set up as a bit of a letdown spot nonetheless. Harden will be back in the line-up for the home side tonight, and Tony Allen will be back for Memphis after he was suspended for one game. The Grizz will undoubtedly be eager to atone for last night's 93-82 home loss to Utah in which they were outrebounded 55-37 and will need to be focused tonight as they sit just 1.5 games ahead of the Rockets. I think this is going to be an extremely competitive game with a playoff like atmosphere, but from a trend based stand point, this selection is about as strong as you could possibly ask for as note that Memphis is a great 9-5 ATS this year in revenging a loss vs. an opponent and 18-11 ATS vs. teams with winning records. And conversely, note that this is a spot in which the Rockets have struggled in all season, a poor 5-6 ATS vs. division opponents. I think the slumping, but clearly "hungry" GRIZZLIES take this one down to the wire.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* COAST-TO-COAST DESTRUCTION on the Philadelphia 76ers.

While I won't be so bold as to call for an outright win, I do definitely feel that this is a few too many points to be giving up as I expect the home side to get caught "looking ahead" to its next game, leaving the back door open just enough for the lowly 76ers to sneak in through down the stretch. The Thunder's up and down season continues, Kevin Durant is still out but the home side is expected to have Russell Westbrook back in the line-up tonight. To say this is a "revenge" game would be a bit of an understatement though I think as OKC has won 11 straight in the series. The Thunder are most recently coming off a 108-101 win over the Lakers on Sunday and also beat the 76ers 103-91 back on December 5th. Philadelphia will surely be eager to break out of its road slump as well, having lost 12 straight away from friendly confines, most recently falling 114-103 in Toronto on Monday. But as mentioned off the top, I think this is a great "spot" for us to take advantage as it's not to hard to imagine the home side looking ahead to its game in Chicago tomorrow night. A great situational selection, grab as many points as you can with PHILADELPHIA.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION on Seton Hall.

While I obviously feel that the outright win isn't out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the home side to at the very least, keep this one close enough to escape with the ATS cover. Seton Hall is coming off a big 67-66 win over Creighton on Saturday and I expect the Pirates to keep the moment rolling here. This is the final game for the seniors in front of the home town crowd and I think the conditions are definitely right for a minor upset tonight. The Friars won't be rolling over obviously, they're still in a fight for the second seed in the conference, but Seton Hall has been getting progressively better down the stretch as clearly demonstrated from its last victory and I think this across the board improvement continues here. Note that Providence is a poor 4-5 ATS this year off a win against a conference rival, while Seton Hall is a fantastic 4-1 ATS in revenging a road loss vs. an opponent, 12-8 ATS vs. teams with winning records and 7-4 ATS in all true home games. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to SETON HALL as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* WEST-COAST EXPRESS on the Memphis Grizzlies.

For a number of different reasons I look for the home side to find a way to get the job done and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Memphis shot a season-best 59.4 percent in a 101-97 victory at Minnesota on Tuesday and I expect this team to build off that performance. In all the Grizzlies would tally 52 points in the paint while the bench would go 14 of 22. The Grizzlies still hold a 1.5 game edge over Houston for the division lead and will be tested today as the Jazz have done a lot better defensively of late, holding opponents to 39.1 percent shooting in winning six of their last eight. But note that Utah has failed to win three consecutive games this year despite winning two in a row five times previously and I don't see that trend changing today. Also note that the visitors are in fact a poor 11-13 ATS in their last 24 after allowing 85 points or less, while Memphis is 23-16 ATS in its last 39 when playing with two days of rest. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the GRIZZLIES as the sharp move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* EAST-COAST EXPRESS on the Cleveland Cavaliers.

I like the Cavs to bounce back with a big effort after coming up short in Friday's 105-103 OT setback in Houston on Friday. Cleveland would actually win the rebound battle decisively, 53-36. The home side gets a big boost today as well with the expected return of Kyrie Irving who will be looking to help his team win a 12th straight in front of the home town crowd. Note that the Cavs have been outscoring opponents by an average of 14.8 points during their 11-game win skein in Cleveland. The Celtics would take the Cavs down to the wire in the team's first meeting of the season, a 122-121 setback in Boston back on November 14th; note that LeBron James is averaging 30.4 points vs. the C's for his highest mark against any team. Boston had won three straight and had a 26 point lead over the Warriors on Sunday but fell apart down the stretch to lose 106-101 and I think today's contest definitely sets up as a classic letdown spot for it after that disheartening setback. Note that Boston is just 11-12 ATS this season after allowing 105 points or more, while Cleveland is 8-4 ATS vs. poor defensive teams which allow 99 plus points per contest. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the CAVALIERS as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on Rutgers.

I jumped on this line the second it came out and got 7.5 and its since gone up as high as 9, but regardless, while I do in fact feel that the outright win isn't out of the question here, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for the home side to keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. There's no question in my mind which will be the "hungrier" team today as Rutgers looks to avoid the schools second-longest losing streak in program history. It's hard not to imagine No. 10 Maryland coming in a bit complacent here, it's ranked in the Top 10 for the first time since 2003. The Terrapins are most recently coming off a 66-56 win over Michigan on Saturday but I think will be tested today in the Scarlet Knights final home game of the regular season. Rutgers looked pretty good though last time out and I think can build on its offensive performance in Thursday's 92-85 setback to Purdue. Also note that the Scarlet Knights play with revenge here after falling 73-65 at Maryland back on January 14th, blowing a six-point lead with just 7 minutes to play. And note that Maryland is just 4-11 ATS when playing the role of favorite this year, while Rutgers is 4-3 ATS in its last seven as a home dog between the 6.5 to 9 points range. A few too many points here, play on RUTGERS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BIG 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas.

I think the home side will find a way to get the job done at the end of the night and expect it to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Baylor has won four straight and I think will come in a bit flat footed today as it faces the revenge minded Longhorns. Conversely, Texas has lost four straight and there's no question in my mind that it will be the "hungrier" team. Baylor defeated the Longhorns 83-60 at home on January 31st, holding Texas to just 38.6 percent shooting. Note though, the Bears have dropped two straight in Texas; also note that the Longhorns last four defeats have come by eight points or fewer, with three on the road (and note, all four games were against ranked opponents). Most recently Texas is coming off a 69-64 loss at No. 8 Kansas: "We've had some close, tough losses as of late but we still trust the system," guard Demarcus Holland assessed after the Jayhawks setback. "We are still excited to play our way into the tournament and I'm excited for our last two home games." Note that Baylor is already 0-2 ATS this year when playing with one or less days rest and just 4-5 ATS when playing the role of underdog. And note that Texas is 2-1 ATS this season after three or more consecutive SU losses and 13-8 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record. In my opinion the LONGHORNS definitely have enough situational/motivational and strong trend based factors working in their favor to pull the trigger on a play of this magnitude.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION on Southern Illinois.

For a number of different reasons I expect the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. The Salukis will be the "hungrier" team today as they look to snap a five-game losing streak. Here's the perfect motivational opponent to face, Drake has won six-straight at SIU Arena, but is finally ripe for the picking this season as the Bulldogs are just 1-14 away from home this year. This is a big game for the Salukis as well as a win, combined with a Bradley loss will ensure the team the No. 9 seed. Conversely, Drake is locked in at the No. 7 seed whether it wins or loses. This is a great situational play in my opinion, but becomes even stronger when taking into account the fact that the Bulldogs are a poor 8-11 ATS this year when playing the role of underdog, just 3-7 ATS in true road games and only 1-2 ATS after allowing 80 points or more, while the Salukis are 15-11 ATS in their last 26 when revenging a road loss vs. an opponent. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to SOUTHERN ILLINOIS as the sharp wager in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* BLOCKBUSTER on Boston College.

For a number of different reasons I expect the home side to at the very least, keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. To say this is a "revenge" game for the Eagles would be a bit of an understatement I think as the Wolfpack has won six straight in the series, including a 78-68 victory last season at PNC Arena. Boston College plays for pride today, it's lost nine straight, including a 71-65 loss at Pittsburgh on Tuesday night. Conversely, I think this sets up as a bit of a letdown spot for NC State, I expect it to come out a bit complacent after winning three straight, including a big 58-46 victory at UNC on Tuesday and a 74-65 win over Louisville on February 14th. Boston College has been competitive of late and I think that carries over here, one player to keep your eyes on today is the Eagles' Olivier Hanlan who had a season-high 39 points in the setback at Pittsburgh, his fourth 30-point effort in his last six outings. Note that Hanlan had 29 points to go along with five assists in last years loss to the Wolfpack as well. Also note that this is a spot in which BC has excelled in for bettors already this year, 9-5 ATS following a conference game, 8-5 ATS off a loss vs. a conference rival and 6-5 ATS in all home games. In my opinion, this spread is just a little large, play on BOSTON COLLEGE.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Louisville.

For a number of different reasons I expect the visitors to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Louisville has won two straight and I think will bond on the court after the dismissal of guard Chris Jones. The Cardinals are most recently coming off victories over the Hurricanes and Georgia Tech. Coach Rick Pitino thinks his team can use the Jones incident as a rallying point: "This comes at a time when we're all shocked, extremely disheartened, and very much saddened for everybody involved," Pitino said. "We haven't dealt with this here. They're going to play basketball," he continued. "We all go through these trials and tribulations, with our families, with our friends, seeing loved ones pass, and we've still got to go the next day between the lines, and that's what we are right now. We're between the lines. And we've got to go out and do a great job." Louisville has been resilient of late, it overcame a 10-point halftime deficit and 33.9 percent shooting to beat Miami before then rallying from 13 down to win 52-51 at Georgia Tech on Monday. The Cardinals continue to get the job done with a suffocating defense which has held five of its last seven opponents to fewer than 60 points and four to less than 38.0 percent shooting: "They learned a valuable lesson in the last few games: defense is winning it for them," Pitino said. The Seminoles on the other hand come in with zero momentum after dropping a second straight game, this time an 81-77 setback to Miami on Wednesday. FSU has just one victory in five games vs. ranked opponents this season and has struggled in this spot for bettors all year, a poor 6-8 ATS vs. good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less per contest. And note, this is a position in which Louisville has excelled in the last two seasons, 28-15 ATS off a win vs. a conference rival. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to LOUISVILLE as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* REVENGE DESTRUCTION on the New York Knicks.

For a number of different situational and trend based reasons, I think the visitors will keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what I feel to be a healthy amount of points afforded to them in this one. This is a double revenge game for New York which has lost both ATS vs. Detroit this year. It's not hard to imagine the Pistons coming in a bit complacent vs. the lowly Knicks, they've won seven of their last 11 games. Conversely, New York will surely be hungry here after losing eight straight. From a motivational stand point, this one sets up perfectly. Detroit is pushing for a playoff spot and for the most part has been pretty good the last eight weeks, but I simply feel this is a bad spot for it. Whatever could go wrong for the Knicks this year has, and in no way will I try to convince you this is a good team, but note that they are in fact a fantastic 5-2 ATS this year as a road dog of 12.5 points or more, also 6-3 ATS following a divisional contest and 9-8 ATS in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent. And note that this is a position in which the Pistons have struggled in for bettors, just 13-18 ATS this season in front of the home town crowd and just 1-5 ATS after playing three consecutive home games. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the KNICKS as the sharp move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BAIL-OUT BLOWOUT on San Diego.

While I'm obviously not going to call for an outright upset here, I do feel that this is way too many points to be giving up and like the visitors to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what I deem to be a healthy amount of points afforded to them in this one. Gonzaga has already secured a third straight WCC regular-season title and will not be looking for a potential No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. The Bulldogs though have already shown some complacency of late though as they were down by as many as 17 points at Saint Mary's on Saturday, only to close on a 29-9 run and win 70-60. In fact, Gonzaga as trailed or been tied at halftime in four of six February games and their 11-point halftime hole on Saturday was the largest deficit of the season. San Diego defeated the Bulldogs 69-66 last February 22nd on its home court, and took Gonzaga down to the wire in a 59-56 setback on its home floor. The Toreros will be playing with revenge here after a 60-48 defeat to the Bulldogs on December 29th. Note that San Diego is already 4-2 ATS this year in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent and 14-12 ATS in its last 26 vs. good offensive teams which average 77 plus points per contest. And note that Gonzaga is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 points or less per contest. In my opinion, this is a few too many points to be giving up here, play on SAN DIEGO.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Minnesota.

For a number of different reasons I expect the visitors to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. There's no question in my mind which will be the "hungrier" team here, the Gophers have lost three in a row after falling 63-53 to Wisconsin on Saturday. Minnesota looked a lot better defensively though, it held Wisconsin to 6 for 17 shooting from three-point range after allowing 33 makes from beyond the arc in its previous two games. MSU on the other hand comes in a bit complacent here in my opinion, it's coming off a fourth straight win after defeating Illinois 60-53 on Sunday. It's interesting to note though that the Spartans are one of only two league teams with lower shooting percentage from the charity stripe than the Gophers. Michigan State gets the job done with tough defensive play, but note that this is a spot in which it's struggled in mightily already for bettors, just 4-5 ATS off a win vs. a conference rival and only 9-10 ATS vs. teams with winning records. Conversely, this is a spot in which the Gophers have excelled in by going 4-3 ATS in their last seven after three or more consecutive SU losses. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to MINNESOTA as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION on Wright State.

For a number of different reasons I expect the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Wisconsin Milwaukee has won seven of its last 11 overall including three of its last four, most recently coming off a 66-60 win over Cleveland State. This is a revenge game for the Raiders though who fell 69-63 in the 2014 Horizon League Championship game at the Nutter Center on March 11th, 2014. It's been a tough overall year for Wright State which has endured a plethora of injuries, it comes into Thursday's game having dropped ten of its last 11 decisions; note though that its last four setbacks have come by nine points or less. But after losing six straight in front of the home town crowd, there's no question in my mind which team will be the "hungrier" one today. This is in fact a triple revenge game for Wright State after falling 67-41 to the Panthers back on January 20th. Note though that this is a spot in which Wisconsin Milwaukee has struggled in mightily for bettors already this season, just 4-9 ATS in true road games and only 1-5 ATS after allowing 60 points or less. Conversely, this is a great spot to jump on Wright State as the Raiders are 15-12 ATS in their last 27 after scoring 60 points or less. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to WRIGHT STATE as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on West Virginia.

For a number of different reasons I expect the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. I played this line right when it came out and got 2.5 and it’s since gone up, but regardless, I really like this play. WVU looks to keep the momentum rolling after knocking off a pair of ranked teams, while Texas hasn’t beaten a Top 25 opponent since beating the Mountaineers just last month. The “revenge” factor is in full effect today. The Mountaineers have turned things around, they had dropped three of four before last Monday’s 62-61 home win over no. 8 Kansas and then Saturday’s 73-63 victory at then-No. 22 Oklahoma State: “We win because we play harder than everyone else," coach Bob Huggins said last night. "We don't win because we shoot better or pass better or anything like that." In fact, to call this a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement I think as the Longhorns have won four straight in the series. Since that win over the Mountaineers, Texas has been free-falling and could miss the NCAA Tournament for the second time in three seasons. The Longhorns are most recently coming off a disheartening 71-69 loss at then-No. 17 Oklahoma on Tuesday and Saturday’s 85-77 defeat to then-No. 14 Iowa State. Note that Texas is just 3-4 ATS off a loss vs. a conference rival this year, while WVU is 3-2 ATS in revenging a road loss vs. an opponent. In my opinion, this line should be larger, play on the MOUNTAINEERS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* OVC GAME OF THE YEAR on Austin Peay.

Austin Peay has been officially eliminated from Ohio Valley Conference post-season competition and with all of the pressure off the Governors now, I expect the visitors to relish the role of spoiler and give Eastern Kentucky everything it can handle today. Interestingly, this game was scheduled to be played last Tuesday, but inclement weather forced the postponement. Eastern Kentucky is 8-5 in league play and trails Belmont by a game in the OVC East. The Colonels had been the conference’s hottest team before losing 66-61 to Belmont on Thursday and suffice it to say, in my opinion this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the home side. After an extended streak of excellence, only to come up short vs. the No. 1 team, and now facing the lowly Governors, all signs do indeed point to a letdown spot. It was a brutal loss as well, EKU actually led by as much as 16 second-half points vs. Belmont. APSU on the other hand has lost seven straight and will be eager to play with some pride today after falling 89-54 at Murray State on Saturday. Note though that Austin Peay is 17-13 ATS in its last 30 vs. teams with winning records and 14-9 ATS after three or more consecutive SU losses. And note that EKU is a poor 9-16 ATS in its last 25 in front of the home town crowd. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the GOVERNORS as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the LA Lakers.

A couple of bottom feeders go head to head here and as we can tell by the spread, the oddsmakers think these two inept teams are pretty evenly matched. I agree of course, but think that the home court advantage can’t be overlooked in this one and with a strong revenge factor working in its favor, in my opinion the savvy move in this contest is indeed on LA. The C’s won 113-96 in LA back on December 5th. The Lakers will also be especially motivated after falling 114-105 at home to Brooklyn on Friday. This is a great situational play though as Boston comes to town without top scorer and leading rebounder Jared Sullinger, who will be out for the foreseeable future with a stress fracture in his left foot. Boston comes in with zero momentum as well after falling 109-101 to Sacramento on Friday. Note that the Celtics are interestingly just 9-11 ATS after allowing 105 points or more, while the Lakers are 19-18 ATS this season in revenging a loss vs. an opponent and 10-7 ATS after scoring 105 points or more. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to the LAKERS as the correct move in this one.

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This is an 8* ART OF THE GAME on Arkansas State.

While I obviously feel that the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the home side to at the very least sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the handful of points that it’s been afforded in this one. This is a big opportunity for Arkansas State as it plays four of its next five games on its home floor. A-State will be especially motivated after falling for a fifth straight time in a 70-57 setback at UALR on Thursday. It comes as little surprise to learn that this is a revenge game for A-State, it would fall 70-61 in the first meeting between the schools this season. However, if history is any precedence, then the Red Wolves have to loving their chances for revenge today as they’ve won 12-straight over ULM on their home floor. Conversely, it’s hard not to imagine the Warhawks coming in a bit complacent today after winning six straight. Also note that Louisiana Monroe is a poor 1-3 ATS in its last four when playing with five or six days or rest, while A-State is 4-3 ATS this season after scoring 60 points or less and 2-0 ATS in its last two vs. good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less per contest. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the RED WOLVES as the sharp move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL UNDERDOG DESTRUCTION on Missouri.

The Tigers will be hungry today, they’re looking to avoid the longest losing streak in school history, but are heavy underdogs as they hit the road to take on Vanderbilt. Desperation is often a factor in which the oddsmakers have a hard time properly quantifying into a line and that’s the case here in my opinion, while I won’t be so bold as to call for the outright upset, I do definitely think this is a few too many points to be giving up today and will look for Missouri to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what I feel is a healthy amount of points afforded to it in this one. Most recently the Tigers fell 84-69 to No. 17 Arkansas on Wednesday, the teams 12th consecutive loss. Despite all of the turmoil both off and on the court for Missouri though, here’s a perfect opponent to try and break the slide against, the Commodores have lost two of their last three games after falling 50-47 to Florida on Wednesday. Also note that Vanderbilt has lost three of its last five in front of the home town crowd. This is also a very strong play from a trend based stand point as well in my opinion, as note that Missouri is 16-14 ATS in its last 30 off a loss vs. a conference rival, while Vanderbilt is just 2-5 ATS after allowing 60 points or less this year and only 3-5 ATS off a loss vs. a conference rival. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to the underdog TIGERS as the sharp move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* MID-MAJOR SUPER BLOWOUT on Marquette.

I think the home side has enough significant advantages working in its favor to keep this game a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. These teams are moving in opposite directions, but I think the conditions are finally right for Marquette to keep this one competitive. Conversely, I think this sets up as a bit of a letdown spot for the sixth-ranked Wildcats after winning seven straight. Also note that this is a revenge game for Marquette after losing by 18 in the first meeting between the schools this year. To me, there’s no question which side will be “hungrier,” the Golden Eagles have lost eight of their last nine, including four straight in front of the home town crowd. Marquette is expecting to get a boost today with the return of leading scorer Matt Carlino, who has been out with a concussion, missing the last three games including Saturday’s 77-70 setback to Creighton. Villanova is most recently coming off an 80-54 destruction of Seton Hall and I think won’t be able to help itself in coming in a bit complacent to this one, the exact opportunity that both Marquette and ourselves can take advantage of. And note that Villanova is already a poor 3-5 ATS after scoring 80 points or more, while Marquette is 4-3 ATS in revenging a road loss vs. an opponent this season, 10-6 ATS vs. teams with winning records and 6-3 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 points or less per contest. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the GOLDEN EAGLES as the savvy move in this contest.

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This is an 8* WEST-COAST DESTRUCTION on the Oklahoma City Thunder.

For a number of different reasons I expect the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The Thunder rolled into the All-Star break with five wins in six games and sitting just a half-game behind eighth-place Phoenix, I expect the home side to make the most of this game. Dallas is in fifth in the West and is expected to have Rajon Rondo back in the line-up after missing six games due to fractures in his nasal passage. Note though that the Mavericks once prolific offense sputtered over the final month of the first half and I think that the newly acquired Amare Stoudemire will not have an immediate impact for the team. As mentioned off the top, OKC dominated its way into the break, PG Russell Westbrook had 41 points in the All Star game to earn MVP honors and he’ll be eager to help his team earn a rare win here, the Thunder actually play with triple revenge, most recently losing 112-107 on December 28th. Note that Dallas is just 8-16 ATS this year vs. teams with winning records, while OKC is 14-10 ATS in front of the home town crowd. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to OKLAHOMA CITY as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BIG TEN SUPER BLOWOUT on Wisconsin.

For a number of different reasons I expect the visitors to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. The No. 5 Badgers average a paltry 7.4 turnovers this year, the lowest number in the nation. They’re averaging just 6.1 turnovers in Big Ten action and commited just one turnover in a 32-point win over Iowa last time out. The Badgers have won eight straight and five straight by double digits. The Badgers also already throttled the Nittany Lions 89-72 in the first meeting on December 31st, Wisconsin would shoot a ridiculous 70 percent in the second half and had four players score at least 16 points in the victory. I don’t think anything will change here, Penn State couldn’t handle the Badgers incredible depth then and they’re not going to be able to today. Nittany Lions’ coach Patrick Chambers knows his team will have its hands full today: “They’re all very capable of making 3s and they’re all very capable of getting 20, so we got to do our job,” Chambers assessed last night. “Everybody’s got to defend and rebound together and just leave it all out there and play as hard as we can.” I think Penn State comes out flat here, it’s coming off a disheartening three-point loss to then No. 19 Maryland on Saturday, the team’s fourth loss in its last five games. Also note that Wisconsin is 6-3 ATS this year in true road games, while Penn State is just 17-21 ATS in its last 38 off a loss vs. a conference rival. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the BADGERS as the savvy move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Notre Dame.

For a number of different reasons I expect the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. This is a great situational play I think, the Fighting Irish have been winning some close games of late SU, but not ATS. I think this works in our favor today and expect Notre Dame to take advantage of a Wake Forest team that’s struggled on the road in ACC action this year. In fact, the Demon Deacons have lost 11 straight conference road contests. The Irish have a great chance at running the table and will look to run down first place-Virginia, currently just two games behind. Notre Dame is most recently coming off a 60-58 win at Clemson last Tuesday, overcoming a four-point deficit with 4:09 remaining. This also sets up for a revenge game for the Irish as Wake Forest would win all three previous meetings, including both last year. The Demon Deacons are primed for a letdown here in my opinion, they almost pulled off a massive upset over No. 1 Virginia on Saturday, instead the team would lose a 61-60 heartbreaker, getting outscored 37-29 in the second half. And from a trend based stand point, this play is about as strong as you could possibly ask for as Wake Forest is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a road dog in the 9.5 to 12 points range, while Notre Dame is 6-3 ATS in its last nine when playing with five or six days of rest. In my opinion, this line should be a little larger, play on the FIGHTING IRISH.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SUPER BLOWOUT on West Virginia.

I jumped on this line right when it came out and got -1, it’s since moved the other way, you’ll clearly be able to get a better number than I did and in my opinion, all signs do indeed point to a comfortable win and cover for the home side in this one. Kansas comes to town off a 74-64 win over Baylor on the 14th, while WVU lost at No. 14 Iowa State 79-59 on the same day. I think this sets up as a classice letdown spot for the Jayhawks who have a two-game cusion in the conference race over the Cyclones. Note that at 7-5, WVU is not that far off the pace either. As we can tell by the pointspread, these two teams are pretty evenly matched across the board, Kansas averages 72.2 PPG, while WVU averages 75.0. Note that West Virginia leads the country in steals per game at 12.0 and in turnover margin at +8.4. KU won the first three meetings between the schools before the Mountaineers pulled off a 92-86 victory on March 8th, 2014. In my opinion, the conditions are prime for a Kansas letdown, I can’t understate how important I think the home court advantage will be tonight and after taking all of the above factors into consideration, I’m going to back WEST VIRGINIA in this one.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* REVENGE ROUT on Arizona State.

These teams are pretty evenly matched, but as of writing I am getting 1.5 points with Arizona State and like the visitors to ultimately find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. I actually played on Washington in its loss to Arizona and while I don’t normally “flip-flop” on a team from game to game, in my opinion, that was then and this is now, the situational and motivational factors working in favor of Arizona State are just too good to turn down in the end. The Sun Devils got a big time win vs. No. 6 Arizona on February 7th but then lost a close 74-71 game Friday at Washington State, getting 24 points from Gerry Blakes. Washington has regressed after a great start and has struggled in this spot for bettors for quite some time now, just 4-8 ATS in front of the home town crowd this season and only 2-3 ATS when playing with one or less days rest. Conversely, this is a spot in which ASU has performed well in, 3-2 ATS off a loss vs. a conference rival and 4-3 ATS in its last seven vs. teams with winning records. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to ARIZONA STATE as the sharp move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* SUPER BLOWOUT on Nebraska.

While I do feel that the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for the visitors to at the very least sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what I deem to be a healthy amount of points afforded to them in this one. I think this sets up as a classic “spot” bet for us here, Nebraska will surely be the “hungrier” team after losing two straight, most recently a 65-55 loss to No. 5 Wisconsin on Tuesday; Terran Petteway led the way for the Huskers with 23 points and eight boards in the setback. Nebraska will also be eager to notch its first Big Ten road win of the season and it will have to continue its tough defensive play, holding its opposition to just 60.6 points per game on 40 percent shooting this season (note surprisingly, the Huskers are tied for first in scoring defense and fourth in field goal percentage defense in the Big Ten). Purdue has been awesome, but has been playing “over its head” in my opinion so far this year, it’s not too hard to imagine the Boilermakers coming in a bit complacent here after winning five of their last six, including a 61-51 win at Rutgers on Thursday night. These teams are actually pretty evenly matched in my opinion, more so than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe, but from a trend based stand point, they don’t get much stronger than this, as note that Nebraska is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 off a loss vs. a conference rival, while Purdue is just 1-5 ATS in its last six as a home favorite in the 6.5 to 9 points range. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to NEBRASKA as the sharp move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION on Niagara.

While I do obviously feel that the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for the home side to at the very least, sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what I feel is a healthy amount of points afforded to it in this one. NU will be particularly motivated here after falling 77-65 to St. Peters on Friday and to say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement I think as the Purple Eagles have lost four straight int he series. It’s important to note though that in eight of the last 14 encounters between the teams, the game has been decided by less than four points. One player to keep your eyes on today is Niagara’s Emile Blackman, who is averaging a team-best 18.3 points while shooting a team-high 44 percent. I think this also sets up as a bit of letdown spot for the surging Broncs who are 17-9 overall, 11-4 in MAAC play and who have won five of their last six, including three straight; note though that Rider is just 2-3 ATS in its last five after playing with just one or less days rest, while Niagara is 5-4 ATS in its last nine as a home underdog in the 3.5 to 6 points range. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to NIAGARA as the savvy move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on Canisius.

For a number of different reasons I expect the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. A favorite saying of mine is: “desperation breeds motivation,” and the Golden Griffins will unquestionably be the “hungrier” team in this one in my opinion as they look to break their longest losing slide since 2011, dropping their last four straight after falling 60-59 to Rider on Friday. Canisius ranks second in the MAAC and 69th in the country in scoring defense in giving up just 61.7 PPG. Offensively the team is led by senior Josiah Heath, who scored a career-high 20 points in the loss to the Broncs on Friday. Conversely, it’s not too hard to imagine Saint Peter’s coming in a bit complacent here, it’s won three straight, most recently a 77-65 victory over Niagara on Friday. I’m not going to read too much into the recent win skein, note that the Peacock’s are still middle of the pack at 13-13 overall and just 7-8 in MAAC play. This is a classic matchup of top defenses, as Saint Peter’s actually leads the MAAC in scoring defense at 60.5. Note though that the Peacocks are just 2-4 ATS this season off a win vs. a conference rival, while Canisius is 6-5 ATS when playing the role of favorite. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the GOLDEN GRIFFINS as the savvy move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOWOUT on Texas Tech.

While I won’t be so bold as to predict an outright victory in this one, I do feel that for a number of different reasons the visitors will keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe and will recommend that you grab as many points as you can. This is the 135th meeting between the two schools. To say this is a “revenge game” would be a bit of an understatement I think as the Longhorns have won four of the last five, most recently a 70-61 victory on January 3rd in Lubbock. Texas Tech coach Smith sees a different team now than the one that took the court at the beginning of the year: "We are not the same team we were at the beginning of the season," Smith explained last night. "We have tried some different things to be successful and used some different lineup, but what we have to do to be successful is play under control." Note, that despite struggling with SU victories vs. Texas, the Red Raiders have in fact faired extremely well ATS for bettors, going 6-2 ATS the last eight in the series overall and 5-1 ATS their last six vs. the Longhorns on their own floor. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends all do indeed point to TEXAS TECH as the savvy move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION on Ball State.

While I obviously feel that the outright win is not out of the question here, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the home side to take this one down to the wire and at the very least, look for it to sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the hand full of points that it’s been afforded. It’s hard not to imagine Bowling Green coming in a bit complacent and looking past its lowly opponent today, it’s 16-6 overall and 8-3 in the MAC, while the Cardinals are only 7-15 overall and just 2-9 in league play. Not surpirsingly, this is a revenge game for Ball State after it fell 58-46 on the Falcons’ home floor just last month; however, what may be surprising to learn is that the Cardinals actually held a half time lead in that one. Ball State is most recently coming off a 75-63 loss at Northern Illinois on Wednesday, leading for much of the opening half, but an unreal 70-percent shooting performance by the Huskies in the second half proved too much to overcome. Bowling Green sports one of the better defending units, but I think the situational and motivational factors clearly tip the scales in favor of BALL STATE today.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ASSASSIN on North Carolina State.

While I’m not calling for an outright upset, I do think the the Wolfpack can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe and will ultimately recommend grabbing as many points as you can. NC State is 14-11 overall and just 5-7 in league play, and suffice it to say a big win today would dramatically help its NCAA Tournament resume which has taken a hit of late. The Wolfpack have lost six of eight since upsetting Duke, including a tough 51-47 loss to No. 2 Virginia on Wednesday. The Cardinals are 20-4 overall and 8-3 in ACC action. To say NC State is is focused would be a bit of an understatement I think:  "We might as well just hang up our stuff and go home if we're not going to keep dreaming and believing we can make the tournament," Wolfpack guard Trevor Lacey said after Wednesday's loss to Virginia. It’s not too hard to imagine Louisville coming in a bit complacent here, it’s in the midst of six straight vs. unranked teams before finishing against No. 10 Notre Dame and the aforementioned No. 2 Cavaliers. The Cardinals won for the fifth time in six games in a 69-56 victory over Pittsburgh on February 11th. Despite playing on Wednesday, NC State will definitely be fresh here, it had a full eight days off before the setback to Virginia and note that four of its five most recent losses have been by five points or fewer. In my opinion, this spread is a little large, play on NC STATE.

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This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Washington.

While I won’t be so bold as to call for an outright victory, I do think that the home side can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe and look for the home side to at the very least sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what I feel is a healthy amount of points afforded to it in this one. After a rare and stunning defeat, I think this sets up as classic letdown spot for the Wildcats. Conversely, Washington is looking to avoid its longest losing streak in more than 13 years, there’s no question in my mind which team will be the more focused and “hungry.” Arizona is coming off an 81-78 setback to rival Arizona State on Saturday, it was the team’s third road defeat vs. an unranked opponent. The Wildcats looked susceptible defensively, allowing the Sun Devils to shoot 50.0 percent from the field. Washington will look to take advantage, after winning his first 11 games and reaching No. 13 in the AP poll, Huskies coach Lorenzo Romar finds himself in one of the longest losing streaks in his tenure. Note though that Washington hasn’t dropped six straight since 2001: “We're not going to be able to show up and just win games based on our overall talent level," Romar said last night. "We're going to have to win games by being gritty and blue collar." It’s true that Washington is without the services of 7-foot center Robert Upshaw, who was dismissed for violating team rules, but Nigel Williams-Goss has filled in admirably in averaging 20.0 points over his last four. This is a revenge game as well for the home side after losing three straight in the series. Note that Arizona is just 3-4 ATS on the road this year and only 13-16 ATS in the same position over the last two. And note that Washington is 6-2 ATS in its last eight after three or more consecutive SU losses. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to WASHINGTON as the savvy move in this one.

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