This is a 10* on UNC

North Carolina has endured one of the worst single season free falls that we have ever seen. After starting the 2019-20 season 5-0 and ranked in the Top 10, they ended up losing 18 of their final 26 regular season games and in a three-way tie for last in the ACC. But now the ACC Tournament begins and that gives the Tar Heels a “clean slate.” Before losing the final regular season game at Duke, UNC had won and covered its last three games. So there were some signs of a potential breakthrough. The first round tournament opponent is Virginia Tech. They lost to the Hokies 79-77 in January, but did cover the 7.5-point spot. This time UNC is favored as the game isn’t in Blacksburg. Since it defeated UNC, Va Tech has won just twice in 12 games. They are 3-8 straight up and against the spread as underdogs. This spot screams “Tar Heels!” Play on NORTH CAROLINA

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This is a 10* on TORONTO

Toronto won last night in Sacramento 118-113. Playing in the second night of a back to back should not prevent them from being able to win again tonight. The Raptors have won three straight on this road trip, previously winning in Phoenix and Golden State. It’ll be a tougher test tonight in Utah as the Jazz have won five in a row, the last four all coming on the road. But our view is that the better team is getting points and that’s something we can’t look past. Earlier in the year, they crushed the Jazz by 20. They led that game by 40 at halftime! While it was in Toronto, the Raptors are a strong 22-9 in their road games. Utah has been inconsistent this year, a point driven home by the fact this current 5-game run was preceded by a 4-game losing streak. They are just 5-11-1 ATS their past 17 games with only one cover as a favorite in the last eight tries. Play on TORONTO

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This is an 8* on TOLEDO

The MAC Tournament gets underway tonight. All four first round games are played on campuses before things shift to Cleveland for the quarterfinals on Thursday. Toledo is the home team for this matchup. While the Rockets are only 3-11 ATS at home this season, one of those covers came against Western Michigan, the team they’ll be facing here. They also won at Western Michigan a couple of weeks ago. That made it six straight wins over the Broncos and UT is 5-1 ATS in those same games. The Rockets closed the regular season on a strong 4-1 SU/ATS run, the only loss coming on the road. Western Michigan did not close strong as they’ve lost six of eight with the only two wins both coming in Kalamazoo. WMU is just 3-11 SU on the road. The Broncos scored only 59 points in both regular season matchups vs. Toledo and anything resembling that same defensive effort will bring home an easy ATS win here for the home team. We believe they get the job done as WMU drops to 1-12 ATS its last 13 Monday games! Play on TOLEDO

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This is an 8* on WRIGHT ST

The Horizon League Tournament moves to Indianapolis tonight for a pair of semifinal matchups. The one we’re targeting sees the top seed Wright State facing the #4 seed Illinois-Chicago. While Wright State did beat UIC pretty big (17 points) at home in the regular season, they did lose 76-72 as 6.5-point road favorites in the first meeting of the year. So don’t look for the Raiders to take this game lightly. Because they were regular season champs, Wright State got a double bye into the semifinals whereas UIC has had to win twice to get here. Both of those wins for UIC came at home. The Flames are going to have to figure out a way to defend a Wright State team that comes in averaging more than 81 points/game. If that’s not enough, Wright State has had nine days off. The Raiders have gone 5-1 ATS in Horizon League Tourney games the past two seasons and that includes a pair of semifinal victories. Look for them to easily move on to their third straight Final. Play on WRIGHT STATE

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This is a 10* on ORLANDO

Orlando has seen a recent surge in scoring, leading to their last 10 games all going Over the total. They just hung 132 points in a win at Minnesota Friday night and are now 6-1 ATS the last seven games. Tonight they are getting a generous number of points from a Houston team that’s moving in the WRONG direction. The Rockets were the hottest team in the league not long ago but have gone 0-3 straight up and against the spread in March. Two of those losses came to the Knicks and Hornets, teams far worse off than Magic right now. Despite giving up more points than usual lately, the Magic are still top five in the league in fewest points allowed for the season. They give up 107.2 per game. Orlando has covered its last five road games. Play on ORLANDO

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This is a 10* on DELAWARE

Quarterfinal action in the CAA here with Delaware taking on Charleston. The winner of this game is likely to play top seed Hofstra in the semifinals tomorrow. Delaware finished with a better overall record than Charleston this year (21-10 vs. 17-13). However Charleston is the higher seed as both were 11-7 in conference play and they had the tiebreaker. The tiebreaker was of course head to head play. Charleston beat Delaware twice this season and is a perfect 6-0 the last six meetings. They are 6-0 ATS in those games as well. That sets this up to be a major revenge situation for the Blue Hens. Both games vs. Charleston this year saw Delaware shoot poorly. They made just over 40% of their FGA in each game. That’s irregular. For the season, the Blue Hens are shooting over 48%. We’ll say they shoot a lot better today. The Blue Hens are also 5-1 ATS in their past six neutral court games. Play on DELAWARE

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This is an 8* on CREIGHTON

This is the game that will determine the Big East’s regular season champion. It’s Seton Hall’s title to lose as the 8th ranked Pirates come into Saturday with a one-game advantage over #11 Creighton. But the Bluejays have the tiebreaker having already gone on the road and beat the Pirates 87-82 last month. Creighton has lost only once in its last seven games and that was when we played against them last Sunday at St. John’s. Consider that result to be an anomaly as the Bluejays quickly bounced back with a 91-point effort here at home vs. Georgetown on Wednesday. They’ve now won 10 of 12 overall and are 17-1 straight up at home where they are averaging a very healthy 83.5 points per game. Seton Hall can only blame itself for being in this position as they left the door open by losing to Villanova at home Wednesday night. The Pirates couldn’t stop Creighton from scoring a ton the first meeting. There’s no reason to believe they’ll be able to stop them here. Play on CREIGHTON

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This is a 10* on TENNESSEE

Tennessee rallied back from a 17-point deficit to stun #6 Kentucky on the road Tuesday. For them, it had to feel like “just desserts” given that they blew a 17-point lead and lost earlier this year. That was to Auburn, who they’ll face here in the final regular season game of the year. This is a great shot for the Volunteers to post their second straight win over a ranked opponent, although this one would not be considered an upset. For the third time this season, Auburn has lost two straight. They’ve yet to lose three in a row but have lost four of their last six including an 0-3 road record. Wednesday saw them lose at home to Texas A&M as a 12-point favorite. Tennessee has had an extra day to prepare here and with this being Senior Day, you’ve got to think they’ll come out as the more motivated side in this contest. Auburn is just 2-7 ATS on the road this year and will have to figure out a way to score against a team that’s giving up less than 60 points per game at home. We don’t think they figure it out. Play on TENNESSEE

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This is a 10* on MIAMI

Not much on the line here in the final regular season game for Ohio and Miami, so we’ll defer to the home side on “Senior Night.” The teams have played well of late. Ohio is 9-2 ATS its last 11 games and 5-0 ATS the last five. But they still have a losing record in MAC play at 7-10 straight up. Miami is in last place at 5-12 SU, but they’ve won their last two home games. Tonight is a chance for the RedHawks to avenge their worst loss of the season, which took place in Athens on February 8th. Ohio won that day 77-46. But Miami is 6-1 ATS since that loss. While they are 1-11 SU on the road this year, they are 10-5 SU at home. Play on MIAMI

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This is an 8* on Akron

Rivals Kent State and Akron close out their respective regular seasons against one another here and there’s plenty at stake. Akron has surged to the top of the MAC East by winning seven of its last eight games and can clinch the top seed in the conference tournament with a win here. Seeing as they also have revenge for a one-point loss they suffered at Kent State on January 31st, the Zips’ motivation ought to be at a season-high tonight. We look for them to get the job done as they’ve gone an impressive 14-2 at home this year while allowing only 62.7 points per contest. Since beating Akron in the first go around, Kent State has a losing record and hasn’t posted back to back wins. They just beat Bowling Green at home on Tuesday. But on the road the Golden Flashes tend to struggle as their scoring average dips from 81.9 at home down to 68.1. They are also just 2-6 ATS off a league win this year. Play on AKRON

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This is a 10* on the WARRIORS

Steph Curry returns tonight to a Warriors team that is nothing like it’s been at any point in the last five seasons. The three-time NBA champs have the worst record in the league at 14-48. Golden State has won only five times in 2020, though two of those have come in the last three games. Perhaps motivated by the former MVP’s impending return, Curry’s teammates won in Denver two nights ago 116-110 as a 16-point underdog. Tonight, in a rematch of last year’s Finals, the Warriors face the Raptors. We expect this to be one of the high points of a lost season in Golden State. Yes, to expect Curry to play at an MVP-level right away would be foolish. But he doesn’t need to. The Warriors are still clear underdogs and only need to keep it close. Toronto has injuries as well with Fred Van Vleet and Serge Ibaka both expected not to play. Before beating Phoenix Tuesday, the Raptors had lost three straight and four of six. Play on GOLDEN STATE

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This is a 10* on UNLV

UNLV hosts Boise State in the second of four Mountain West Tournament quarterfinals today. We like the tourney hosts for a variety of reasons here, namely that they come in hot. Five straight wins and covers have the Rebels primed to make a little noise this weekend and remember they are the only team to beat top seed San Diego State this entire season! The Runnin’ Rebels just beat Boise State here at the Thomas & Mack Center on Feb 26th, 76-66 as two-point favorites. They led by 12 at halftime and coasted from there. Boise State is just 4-8 on the road this season. The loss at UNLV was their regular season finale while the Rebels have since picked up a dominant 92-69 win at San Jose State. Their recent form can’t be ignored here and even if Long (knee) can’t go, they remain a safe bet. After all, they have covered 11 of the 16 times they have been a favorite in this season. Play on UNLV

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This is a 10* on BROOKLYN

Brooklyn is off a huge win last night as they came back from a 17-point deficit at the start of the fourth quarter to upset Boston 129-120 in overtime. They were 6.5 point underdogs and led by Caris LeVert’s 51 points. Now they face a quick turnaround to host Memphis. Most will look at this as a bad spot for the Nets, but they are at home. The Grizzlies have a losing record away from home and while they are off 39-point road win, it was against Atlanta. They were actually an underdog in that game due to multiple players being injured. Those same players - Brandon Clarke and Jaren Jackson - are both out tonight as well. The Grizzlies were fortunate to get a very balanced offensive attack against Atlanta (9 players in double figures!) but can’t count on that every night. Nor can they count on every opponent shooting as poorly as Atlanta did (32.5%!).  Play on BROOKLYN

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This is a 10* on UTAH

Give credit to Cleveland for playing better since the firing of former coach John Beilein. They’ve even posted home wins against the likes of Miami and Philadelphia. But those teams seem to be unique in how much they struggle on the road. Utah, who finally ended its losing streak (at four games) Friday, should have little difficulty coming in here and winning. The Cavs have lost two in a row, to New Orleans and Indiana. They still rate as one of the league’s worst teams. Utah winning its last game 129-119 over Washington should jumpstart a nice run for them as they fight for position in the Western Conference. They are the more rested team here and should put up another big total like they did vs. Washington. The Cavs are last in the league in defensive efficiency (Wizards are second to last). Donovan Mitchell has scored 30 or more in the last four games for Utah and should continue that streak in a big win tonight. Play on UTAH

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This is a 10* on DUKE

Duke lost to Virginia Saturday, its second loss in a row and third in the last four games. But the one constant in those three defeats is that they all took place on the road. We were on the right side of that Virginia game Saturday with the Blue Devils getting held to a season-low 50 points. They faltered down the stretch yet again, just like they did against Wake Forest a few days prior. But back at Cameron Indoor, we look for the Blue Devils to make a statement tonight on ESPN. They are winning by more than 21 points/game at home this season. This is also a very big revenge spot. Duke lost to NC State by 22 two weeks ago in Raleigh. That was their worst loss of the season and something the players haven’t forgotten. This will be the first time this year that the Blue Devils take the floor with in-season revenge. They have won 10 of the last 11 times they’ve been seeking revenge for a road loss, covering the spread seven times. NC State is 0-3 ATS since the upset of Duke and lost at North Carolina. Play on DUKE

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This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA

We all know about the Sixers’ struggles on the road. While the league’s preeminent home team (28-2 SU at home!), Philly is only 9-21 straight up in road games. That difference of -19 (home vs. road wins) is seven games more than the team with the second biggest split. Today they are at the Clippers, who have won three straight games by double digits. Two were at home and those margins of victory were 27 and 29 points. Despite all of this, we are grabbing the big number with the road dog. You’re not likely to get this many points with the Sixers in any game all season. Obviously that has to do with the fact Joel Embiid will miss the game with a shoulder injury. Ben Simmons is out too. But still this is too many points. The Clippers can have “off-nights” defensively and the Sixers have still won 6 out of their last 8 games. There’s been just one time all season that LA covered four in a row and it was back in December. Play on PHILADELPHIA

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This is a 10* on ST. JOHN'S

Creighton and St. John’s are in very different places as we approach the final week of the regular season. Creighton has surged to the top of the Big East by winning and covering its last five games. Plus they are 9-1 SU L10. St. John’s lost leading scorer Mustapha Heron and is 2-9 straight up its last 11 games (0-3 L3) as well as 1-6 against the spread its last seven. But the good news for St. John’s Sunday is they are playing at home and they are 3-0 both straight up and against the spread this year when off three consecutive losses. Even without Heron, we like their chances today due to the fact Creighton simply isn’t the same team on the road that they are at home. Scoring drops from 83.1 points/game down to 72.5 and that should be enough for St. John’s to at least earn itself the cover here. They are 5-1 ATS their last six times as a home underdog of 3.5 to 6 points including a perfect 3-0 this season. Play on ST. JOHN’S

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This is a play on VIRGINIA

Duke has tasted defeat twice in its past three games and both losses came on the road. The most recent was a real stunner as they gave up 113 points in a double overtime loss to Wake Forest. The Blue Devils have now failed to cover in four straight road games. Tonight they are at defending National Champ Virginia. While the champs may not be the same team they were last year, they are rounding into form at the right time. It’s five straight wins by the Cavaliers and while four of those have been by three points or less, the offense has increased to 61.4 points/game. That may not sound like much (and it isn’t!) but when you are allowing only 49.5 points/game at home, then it’s plenty. Note Duke is only 4-12 ATS this season after scoring 80 or more points the previous game. Virginia has been a home underdog only one other time all year and they won that game (vs. Florida State) by five. They are 6-2 ATS the last three seasons when getting points. Led by their outstanding defense, Virginia gets the cash here. Play on VIRGINIA

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This is a 10* on UTAH

A long homestand typically provides a team an opportunity to start rolling, but in the case of the current one for the Utah Jazz, that certainly hasn’t been the case. The last four games have all ended with them on the “short end of the stick.” Adding insult to injury, they were favored in all four games. But tonight should be a reprieve with Washington paying a visit. The Wizards are off a win, but that was against a Nets team that is playing without Kyrie Irving. The two games before that, the Wizards got 50+ point games from Bradley Beal and still lost! On January 12th, the Jazz went to D.C. and won 127-116 as 6.5-point favorites. Winning by more at home shouldn’t prove too difficult. The Wizards are 7-21 SU on the road and it can’t be stressed enough just how bad they have been defensively. They are giving up an average of 123.5 points in road games, the highest such average in the league. Expect a big bounce back effort from the home team tonight. Play on UTAH

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This is a 10* on North Dakota St

This is perhaps the biggest regular season game the Summit League will see all year as second place North Dakota State hosts first place South Dakota State. The road team has won eight straight to climb into the pole position and that win streak started with a win over the Bison back on January 22nd. But it was only a five point win in which the Jackrabbits shot an amazing 55.8% from the field and made 24 of 38 shots inside the arc. That will not happen again on the road as ND State is the team more likely to “go off” offensively this time as they are averaging 81.4 points/game at home. The Bison had their own win streak stopped at seven games last Saturday with a three point loss at North Dakota. Maybe they were looking ahead to this showdown? Regardless, they are now 1.5 games back of South Dakota State, which makes tonight a “must-win.” The Bison are 11-1 on their home floor this year. All eight of South Dakota State’s losses this year have been on the road. Play on NORTH DAKOTA STATE

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This is a 10* on CLEVELAND

On Monday, Cleveland hosted a top 5 team in the East (Miami) whose play dips rather significantly on the road. Sure enough, the Cavs beat the Heat in overtime, 125-119 as a 6.5-point home underdog. It was a rather shocking come from behind effort as the Cavs trailed by 19 going into the fourth quarter. Of course, the Heat’s road woes are well documented. We bring this up because the team Cleveland hosts tonight sees an even more dramatic dropoff when they are on the road and that’s Philadelphia. The Sixers are a league-best 27-2 straight up at home. But their road record is 9-20. That is easily the biggest gap any team in the league has when it comes to home vs. road wins. So can Cleveland pull the same trick twice in a row? Not sure about them winning straight up tonight, but we do like the points as the 76ers are 1-9 ATS in road games where the total is 220 or higher. They are 4-8-1 ATS as a road favorite with six outright losses. Play on CLEVELAND

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This is a 10* on PENN ST

Yet another play from the Big 10 (had Michigan St last night), so we’ll mention again just how deep this conference is as it looks like 10 teams will be sent to the NCAA Tournament. But despite the depth, there are advantages to be had, especially when certain teams play on the road. We didn’t give Iowa much of a chance last night in East Lansing and the same holds true tonight for Rutgers in State College, PA. To say the Scarlet Knights have struggled on the road in Big 10 play would be putting it mildly. They have lost five straight Big 10 road games and six of seven overall with the one win coming against Nebraska. Rutgers is now 1-9 in road or neutral site games for the 2019-20 season. They just lost by eight at Wisconsin on Sunday. While the Big 10 may be deep, some teams are simply better than others and that’s the case with Penn State here as the Nittany Lions are a legit top 20 team that plays really good defense. Back to back losses (to Indiana & Illinois) have taken some wind out of their sails, but you’re still looking at a team that’s 13-2 SU at home with a point differential of +14.8 per game. They began February on a 5-0 SU/ATS tear and should end the month with a big win here. Play on PENN STATE

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This is a 10* on INDIANA

Both of these teams just got their tails kicked in. For Charlotte, it was Saturday when they lost at home to Brooklyn by 29 points, a real “bad look” considering the Nets are now without Kyrie Irving. Still, in terms of margin, the loss wasn’t as bad as what Indiana suffered Sunday in Toronto as they went down 127-81. One of the teams will get to bounce back from the embarrassing defeat Monday and our money is on the Pacers as not only are they playing at home, they are also simply the much better basketball team at this juncture. Even with three consecutive upsets straddling the All-Star Break, the Hornets are still only 4-14 straight up their past 18 games and when they lose it’s generally by a wide margin. The Hornets’ record in games decided by 10 points or more is a lousy 4-24 straight up. They are also just 2-19 vs. teams that have winning records while going 5-14-2 against the spread.  Play on INDIANA

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This is a 10* on MICHIGAN ST

Yet another quality Big 10 matchup Tuesday and while it’s a battle of Top 25 teams, we actually think things will end up rather lopsided here in East Lansing. Despite a less than stellar February, Sparty remains an elite team, one that is far better than its #24 ranking. Make no mistake about it, there might not be more than 5-7 teams that would be favored over Michigan State come Tournament time. Tom Izzo’s bunch got the confidence-boosting win it needed last Thursday when they went to Nebraska and blew out the Cornhuskers 86-65. Now they host Iowa, who we have serious doubts about on the defensive end of the floor. Of all the teams currently ranked in the Top 25, the Hawkeyes have the worst efficiency rating defensively. We grabbed them laying a small number  vs. Ohio State last Thursday. However, that was at home. They’ve gone just 1-16 straight up and 4-13 against the spread their past 17 visits to East Lansing and this number tells you to disregard the rankings. Iowa had lost three straight road games before a miracle comeback at Minnesota nine days ago. Play on MICHIGAN STATE

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This is an 8* on PHILADELPHIA

The Sixers are back home Monday and you should know what that means. It’s a virtual guarantee that they’ll play better than they did Saturday night in Milwaukee when they lost 119-98. That loss dropped Philly to 9-20 in road games. They are 26-2 at home. Throw in the fact that they go from facing the league’s best team to (maybe) its worst and it should be a complete “reversal of fortune” here. While the Hawks are 2-0 since returning from the All Star Break, each of those wins came at home. They have only six road wins all year and only one in the last 30 days. Philadelphia is playing with revenge tonight as well. They lost in Atlanta last month. (They also won there early in the season). The Sixers are an impressive +10.0 points/game compared to their opponents here at home. They are 6-0 ATS in home games with a total of 220 or higher (total here is currently 229). Play on PHILADELPHIA

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This is a 10* on WASHINGTON ST

Stanford stopped the bleeding with a 72-64 upset of Washington on Thursday. But that singular win doesn’t change the fact that the Cardinal had previously lost seven of eight, which obviously put a severe damper on their NCAA Tournament hopes. Tonight they are at Washington State, a matchup the Cardinal likely feels pretty good about. But this one is trickier than it looks. Yes, Wazzu has lost three in a row overall and was just beaten here in Pullman by Cal Thursday. The Cougs were 6.5-point favorites in that loss too. But they remain 11-4 at the Paloose. They’ve got some big time revenge for a 26 point defeat suffered in Palo Alto earlier in the year. Stanford shot 61% in that game, Washington State was under 40%. It’ll be a lot different this time as we conclude by pointing out that Wazzu is a perfect 3-0 against the spread this year as a home underdog of three points or less. Play on WASHINGTON STATE

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This is an 8* on WISCONSIN

Whenever it’s time to analyze one of these Big 10 matchups, we start by pointing out the incredible depth in the conference. There could be as many as 11 teams making the NCAA Tournament. Wisconsin and Rutgers are among them. Right now though the Badgers are simply hotter. They’ve won three in a row, taking advantage of a somewhat “relaxed” schedule for this time of year. Today marks just the fourth game for the Badgers in the past 14 days. They beat Purdue Tuesday, continuing a string of impressive showings here in Madison that has seen them defeat the likes of Maryland, Michigan State and Ohio State. Rutgers just suffered its first home loss of the season, at the hands of Michigan, and we look for that to have an effect on them today. The Scarlet Knights have lost four of six overall. They have just ONE road win all season.  Play on WISCONSIN

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This is a 10* on OREGON

Crucial game in the Pac 12 tonight for both teams, but particularly for Oregon as they are off a loss and a game back of Arizona in the win column. The Ducks go to Tucson Saturday night with a higher ranking for now (#14 vs. #24), but they really can’t afford another loss here. Back on January 9th, the Ducks did beat Arizona 74-73 in a close call in Eugene. Arizona comes into the rematch as a decided favorite having won three straight. They seem overvalued though in what we view as a pretty even matchup. Oregon has been an underdog just three times all season and this is the first time in over a month. Let’s not forget that it wasn’t too long ago that Arizona lost - by double digits - here at home to UCLA. The Wildcats are just 9-21 ATS in Saturday games the last three seasons. This is one of those games where you just want to play the underdog as an outright win is far more likely than a blowout by the favorite. Play on OREGON

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This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA

We all know about how the Sixers perform on the road relative to how they do at home. On Thursday, they defeated the Brooklyn Nets by a score of 112-104. That improved their already league-best home record to 26-2 straight up. However, they’ve gone just 9-19 straight up on the road and tonight finds them playing in Milwaukee. Despite this seemingly “insurmountable” task the 76ers are facing, we like them to come through with the cash tonight on ABC. Impressive as they have been, the Bucks cannot possibly continue to win by these large margins. What’s interesting is that they have played only 17 games all season against teams that have winning records (fewest in the league). They are 10-7 straight up in those games and 7-10 against the spread. They’ve lost only 1 time all year to a team with a losing record. A couple of weeks ago Philly came here and lost by 11. We think they’ll do better this time as this game means more to them than it does to the Bucks. They did beat the Bucks earlier in the year (at home). Play on PHILADELPHIA

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This is an 8* on COLORADO

Colorado may not be the “best” team in the Pac 12 this year but they have been the most consistent. As a result, they are the ones in first place, not Arizona nor Oregon. The Buffaloes are ranked 18th in the country and just held off USC for a 70-66 win on Thursday. They get to stay in Boulder for the weekend as now it’s UCLA that will pay a visit. The Bruins have not been consistent in the first year under Mick Cronin and we like this opportunity to fade as they are coming off an upset win at Utah a little less than 48 hours ago. The chances UCLA records two straight upset wins on the road seems very unlikely, even though right now is the hottest that the Bruins have been all season. They’ve won four in a row, starting with a win at Arizona. But Colorado is just too tough here as they have a 13-2 SU home record and give up only 61.9 points/game. Motivation will be high as this is the final home game of the season (Senior Night!) and they actually lost at UCLA by 4 points back in January. Revenge will be sweet this afternoon. Play on COLORADO

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This is a 10* on UTAH

The Spurs were done a favor last night as Memphis lost, meaning San Antonio is now within 3.5 games of the 8th (and final) playoff spot out West. Utah has its eyes on a bigger prize as they went into the All Star Break 4th in the conference and on a 4-game win streak. The last three wins were against Houston, Dallas and Miami and the Jazz covered all three. This is a step down in class from those teams, all of which are solidly in the playoff mix. Two of the wins (Houston, Dallas) even came on the road. Speaking of the road, it has been unkind to San Antonio. The annual “Rodeo Road Trip” began on Feb 3rd and has seen the Spurs go 1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS with the only straight up win coming at Oklahoma City right before the break. Utah has a big edge defensively in this matchup as they give up only 104.1 points/game at home while SA allows 116.4 on the road. Utah is 20-5 at home while SA is 9-19 on the road. This is the Spurs first visit to Salt Lake City this season and the Jazz have revenge for losing as a five-point favorite in the Alamo last month. Play on UTAH

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analysis coming

This is a 10* on Iowa

We had some discussion about the Big 10 yesterday. While we came out on the wrong side of that game (Indiana-Minnesota), we’re back at it again, this time with two of the likely 10 teams that the conference will send to the NCAA Tournament. Ohio State was once ranked as high as #2 in the polls. A bad January dropped the Buckeyes standing precipitously, however, they have since rallied by winning five of their last six games. Iowa has alternated wins and losses over the last six games and is off a come from behind win at Minnesota. While recent form may be better for OSU, this game still takes place in Iowa City where the Hawkeyes have lost only one time all year and that was back in the second game. Iowa boasts one of the most efficient offenses in the country and Ohio State is only .500 overall in Big 10 play and 3-5 on the road. The Hawkeyes are 10-2 ATS at Carver Arena. Seems logical to lay the short number here. Play on IOWA

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This is a 10* on MINNESOTA

The Big 10 will obviously be sending a lot of teams to the NCAA Tournament. Right now, if certain “bracketologists” are to be believed, the number of teams is 10. Only one other conference is likely to send more than five. Interestingly enough, neither Indiana nor Minnesota are among those 10 even though both grade out favorably against most teams from other conferences. In the case of Minnesota, a 12-12 WL record does them no favors. However, you can’t tell us that the Golden Gophers aren’t among the top 35 teams in the country. Four losses in the last five games, particularly the one vs. Iowa on Sunday, have really stung. But getting a chance to host an Indiana team that is 1-5 straight up and against the spread its last six games is an opportunity the Gophers can surely cash in on. Indiana is a dreadful 1-6 ATS in road games. They’ve lost 23 of 30 road games the last three seasons. The loss to Iowa on Sunday was just the second time Minnesota lost as a favorite this year (8-3 ATS) and they are 5-1 ATS after being held under 60 points. Play on MINNESOTA

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This is an 8* play on MEMPHIS

There’s significant hand-wringing now over Memphis’ chances to make the NCAA Tournament. A team firmly on the “bubble” all season, the Tigers have gone out and lost three straight. Right now, no one seems to be considering Penny Hardaway’s team as being worthy of the Big Dance and without a really strong finish to the regular season, it’s difficult to imagine that changing. It is worth mentioning though that this three-game losing streak has been nothing but close games. The three losses have all been by six points or less and by a total of only 11 points. Tonight, Memphis has a golden opportunity to take its frustrations out on a lesser opponent, that being East Carolina, who is just 7-13 ATS when getting 12.5 or more on the road. The Pirates are in second to last in the American with a 4-9 conference record and have been beaten by double digits each of the last two times out. Their only conference wins since January 11th both were against Tulane, the last place team in the American. Memphis wins by an average of 17 points/game at home. Play on MEMPHIS

AAA

This is an 8* on LSU

It wasn’t that long ago where LSU was the lone unbeaten team in SEC play and feeling really good about itself. But three losses in the past four games have dropped the Tigers out of the Top 25 and one game back of Kentucky in the SEC. But those three losses the Tigers recently suffered all have one thing in common and that’s they all took place on the road. In Baton Rouge, this team is still 13-1 and they’ve generally won by safe margins. Kentucky is not as dominant as you might think even though it is ranked 10th in the country. While the Wildcats have won eight of nine, most of the wins have come against the bottom half of the SEC. They have failed to cover five of the seven games they have played against teams that average at least 77 points game. LSU averages more than that. LSU is undervalued tonight at home. Play on LSU

AAA

This is a 10* on ILLINOIS

Penn State is undoubtedly a hot team right. Having achieved a top 10 ranking (#9) for the first time in forever, the Nittany Lions are on an 8-0 win streak - both straight up and against the spread. Their latest conquest took place Saturday when they defeated Northwestern 77-61. It was their largest margin of victory during the win streak. Of course, Northwestern also just so happens to be the worst team in the Big 10. Illinois, while having lost four in a row, is still considered to be a NCAA Tournament team and it wasn’t that long ago that they were leading the conference! The Illini’s rough patch has included games vs. Maryland and Michigan State as well as road trips to Iowa and Rutgers. Really, they shouldn’t have been favored to win any of those games. They obviously don’t deserve to be favored tonight either, but the spread is too high in our estimation considering where Illinois was just a short time ago. Play on ILLINOIS

AAA

This is an 8* on NORTH CAROLINA

North Carolina isn’t going to get sympathy from anyone in the ACC or nationally. But it sure is sad to see the Tar Heels having fallen this far (last place in the ACC). For the second time this year, they’re on a five-game losing streak. They’re just 2-10 the past 12 games. But this more recent five game losing streak has seen them fall by two points or less three different times. Saturday against Virginia they lost 64-62. But you should take them here against a Notre Dame team that was just humiliated by Duke over the weekend. The Fighting Irish took a 34-point loss in Durham, which ended a six-game ATS win streak. The Irish have had some close losses of their own, namely a one-point loss at Virginia last Tuesday that went into overtime. But that Duke loss is going to be “tough to shake” and we expect there to be somewhat of a “carry over” from Saturday to tonight. Before Saturday, Notre Dame had been held to 60 points or less three different times this season. They’ve yet to cover off one of those performances. Play on NORTH CAROLINA

AAA

This is a 10* on ST JOHNS

Xavier finds itself right on the NCAA (Tournament) bubble and something tells us that the committee cares very little about the fact that the Musketeers have covered four straight games. What the committee will focus on is the fact they lost to Butler last Wednesday, 66-61, stopping a three-game SU win streak. They are 16-9 SU, but only 9-15-1 ATS and 5-11 ATS laying points. Tonight they go to St. John’s, who is off an 80-69 win over Providence. The Red Storm averages 77.7 points/game at home, so that’s something Xavier has to contend with here. There was a meeting back on Jan 5th, won by Xavier 75-67. But in an eight-point game, St. John’s was 1 for 16 on 3PA, which definitely cost them a cover (line was +8) and possibly even an upset win. With the kind of offense the Red Storm typically produces at home, we expect better shooting tonight. They are 9-5 ATS at home and just came up big in one revenge spot (vs. Providence) and can do the same here against a Xavier team that has a losing record in Big East play. The Musketeers were down by as many as 17 against Butler and only got close when the Bulldogs lost G Aaron Thompson to injury. Play on ST. JOHNS

AAA

This is a 10* on OREGON 

Oregon is well-positioned right now. They are ranked #17 in the country and one win away from tying Colorado for first place in the Pac 12. Getting that win should prove to be pretty easy on Sunday as they host Utah, who has won exactly one true road game this season. Now the pointspread is in the double digits because of all you have just read, but that’s to be expected and not something we’re concerned about in the slightest. We know how the Pac 12 schedule works so this is actually the second road game of the weekend for the Utes, who lost by 19 in Corvallis (Oregon State) Thursday. Oregon won that same night, 68-60 over Colorado, to keep their record perfect (now 13-0) here in Eugene. Utah isn’t just 1-7 straight up on the road, they’re 2-6 against the spread as well and getting beaten by more than 16 points per game. Oregon already won in Salt Lake City this year and should have no problem winning big tonight. Play on OREGON

AAA

This is an 8* on UCLA

While UCLA did win 86-83 Thursday, that wasn’t nearly good enough for us as we had them -8 against Washington State. Still, from the Bruins perspective, they’ll take the result. It was the sixth win in the last eight games and it was last Saturday that they went to Arizona and won 65-52 as a double digit dog. Now they look to win three in a row for the first time all season. They’ll face a Washington team that has been a major disappointment and is 0-6 ATS in road games. The Huskies are also 0-7 both straight up and against the spread their last seven games overall. We went against them this past Sunday when they were favored (by 2.5) at Washington State. They lost 79-67. Then they lost at USC Thursday 62-56. A third straight road game doesn’t seem like the situation UW will figure things out so we will gladly go against them again tonight. After all, earlier this year UCLA went to Seattle and won outright as an 8.5 point underdog. Play on UCLA

AAA

This is a 10* on UNLV

UNLV is off a tough loss to rival Nevada. That game went to overtime with the Rebels coming up just short, losing 82-79 as a 1.5 point home favorite. That was their 4th consecutive ATS loss as well as the fifth straight up loss in the last six games. Coming into Saturday, they’re just 12-14 and basically just waiting for the Mountain West Tournament to get here (which is in Vegas). New Mexico though is not doing much better as they’ve lost six of eight. Lobos games are seemingly never close. All but one of those last eight games has been decided by more than 20 points. Five of them have been losses, one of them 99-78 at UNLV. Tuesday was another humbling setback as San Diego State got them 82-59. A team like this simply can’t be trusted in the favorite role. The Lobos have failed to cover five of their last six turns as a home favorite of three points or less. UNLV was a six-point favorite when it blew out UNM last month. Even with the change in home court, we don’t think this line makes much sense. Play on UNLV

AAA

This is an 8* on NORTHWESTERN

Seemingly out of nowhere, Penn State has emerged as a “darkhorse” Final Four candidate. Yes, Penn State! The Nittany Lions are ranked #13 in the country and will certainly move up were they to win today. They’re on a 7-0 SU and ATS win streak after going to Purdue and winning 88-76 as a 5-point dog earlier this week. That’s quite the impressive streak. Early Saturday PSU host Northwestern in what seems to be the Nittany Lions “easiest” Big 10 game of the year. But that also makes this a surprisingly dangerous spot to be laying this many points. Penn State is used to being the hunter rather than the hunted. Today marks just the 4th time in the last 9 games that they have been the betting favorite. It will also by the most points they’ve had to lay to a Big 10 opponent in a long time. Northwestern has lost eight in a row but only twice during that streak have they gone down by more than 13 points. They are 6-2 ATS on the road. Look for this to be a tighter game than expected. Play on NORTHWESTERN

AAA

This is a 10* on DAVIDSON

St. Bonaventure has been picking off the bottom feeders of the Atlantic 10 and the result is a five-game win streak entering Friday. The Bonnies’ last four wins were against George Mason, George Washington, Duquesne and St. Louis. They covered the spread against all four. They’ve now risen to third place in the conference and have to be feeling pretty good about themselves. On the surface, laying a short number with the Bonnies at home against 12-11 Davidson seems logical. But Davidson is an underrated team. The Wildcats crushed Fordham 79-49 Tuesday, their second win by at least 30 points this month. In the last seven games, Davidson has suffered just one regulation loss and it was to preseason conference favorite VCU. While they’ve struggled as an underdog this year, this looks like a spot where they pull the upset. They’re 8-3 ATS when off a win by 20 or more points the last couple seasons. Play on DAVIDSON

AAA

This is a 10* on UCLA

Washington State proved to be a huge revelation on this end when they upset Washington over the weekend. That was a huge play for us and the Cougars delivered a 79-67 victory as 2.5-point home dogs. But the road has been a much different story for this team. They’ve covered only six of the last 21 times including 1-5 ATS in 2019-20. Bottom line is that this is a game UCLA needs to have. The Bruins just beat a much better Pac 12 team, Arizona, 65-52 as a 12.5 point underdog last weekend. They’ve got revenge here for a 79-71 loss in Pullman earlier this year. UCLA has won three of four and five of seven, so they’re in better form now. They are 10-5 ATS the last 15 times they’ve played with revenge for a road loss. Play on UCLA

AAA

This is a 10* on MINNESOTA

The Timberwolves laying this many points should tell you something and that “something” is that Charlotte is not good. While the Hornets did just win an ugly 87-76 game at Detroit two nights ago, that was preceded by five consecutive losses. Overall they’ve dropped 13 of 15 games and fallen near the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings. There are only three teams in the league that have been outscored by more points. Those are Cleveland, Atlanta and Golden State, who happen to have the three worst records in the league. So expect more losses to pile up for Charlotte in the coming weeks. In terms of laying this many points with the Timberwolves, who have lost 14 of their last 15 games, do not fret. They already won at Charlotte by 22 points earlier in the year. In the last home game, they hung 142 on the Clippers. If they can do that to a good team like the Clippers, they can certainly blowout the Hornets. Play on MINNESOTA

AAA

This is a 10* on OHIO STATE

Ohio State was once ranked as high as #3 in the entire country. Now the Buckeyes find themselves in 10th place in the Big 10 with a 5-7 conference won-loss record. Despite their relatively poor effort at Wisconsin Sunday, we are still of the belief that OSU remains one of the better teams in the Big 10 and the entire country for that matter! Look for them to handle their business tonight in Columbus against a Rutgers team that seems to be failing under the pressure of expectations. The Scarlet Knights managed to get into the Top 25 a couple weeks ago, but then lost two straight (to Michigan and Maryland), followed up by an unimpressive win over Northwestern. Not only is Rutgers only 1-4 ATS its past five games, they have just one true road win all year and that was against Nebraska, who along with Northwestern represent the two “weak” Big 10 teams this year. Ohio State keeps teams to 57.0 PPG at home where they are 9-4 ATS. Expect this to be a statement-type game by the Buckeyes. Play on OHIO STATE

AAA

This is a 10* on WASHINGTON

The Chicago Bulls have not made the playoffs in several seasons. This year, the Eastern Conference is really lacking in depth so fans in the Windy City were hoping the drought would end. Unfortunately though, the Bulls are 16 games below .500 and have lost five in a row. Defense has been atrocious with them giving up 124 points/game during the current losing streak. Bad defense is something Washington knows all too well, but it was a poor offensive effort that cost them against Memphis on Monday night. They finished with only 99 points, the first time in a month they failed to break 100. The Wizards are normally a good offensive team (they average 115.5 points/game) so look for them to get back on track against this struggling Bulls team tonight. What happened against Memphis was they fell apart late, missing 18 of 22 shots in the fourth quarter as a double digit lead evaporated. Play on WASHINGTON

AAA

This is a 10* on OHIO

Both these MAC schools sport 11-12 SU records. Western Michigan won the first meeting 77-65 as a 1-point home underdog. But Ohio remains the decided favorite for the rematch. Pulling what would be a third consecutive upset is going to be tough here for WMU. They won at Miami last week, then at home vs. Ball State. They entered those games at +4.5 and +5.5 respectively. The Broncos should be commended for that success, but eventually the tank hits empty. Ohio showed what it is capable of doing when it destroyed Miami here in Athens, 77-46 on Saturday. Certainly that was a much more impressive win than what WMU did to the RedHawks, winning by just four points. The win over Ball State also was by four points. Brandon Johnson carried them in those two wins, scoring 50 points including a career high 29 vs. Ball State. But can he keep that up? Western Michigan has not beaten three straight D-I opponents all year. Play on OHIO

AAA

This is a 10* on INDIANA

Indiana comes into Monday on a five-game losing streak. Two of the losses came to a Toronto team that has won 14 in a row. The Pacers are lucky in that the East has no real depth, so they’re not in any real danger of falling further than where they’re at right now, which is 6th. The 7th place team (Brooklyn) is who they’ll face tonight and there’s a seven game gap between the teams even with the Pacers losing streak. The Nets also just lost in Toronto and it was by the same exact score (119-118) that Indiana lost by on Feb 5th. Both teams covered the spread in those losses and the Nets do come in riding a 3-game ATS win streak. But they’ve won only one time on the road going back to the start of 2020. To us, it’s just a question of whether or not the Pacers can cover the spread and we think they can as they already hold two double digit wins over Brooklyn this year and both of those were on the road. They didn’t have Victor Oladipo either. Now the Nets don’t have Kyrie Irving. The Nets are 1-8 ATS their last nine times as a road underdog. Play on INDIANA

AAA

This is a 10* on DUKE

The notion of laying this many points with a Duke team that is only 48 hours removed from a wild, 98-96 overtime win at North Carolina might seem problematic to some. But not us as our view is the Blue Devils are clearly the superior side in this one. Florida State has the same overall and ACC record as Duke, but we believe the respective rankings in the Top 25 don’t accurately reflect what the true gap is here. Duke would be favored against almost anybody on a neutral court while Florida State seems more like a team that is ranked high only due to its won-loss record. The Seminoles are obviously a Top 20 team, but we’re not sure about Top 10 and certainly not Top 5. Their three losses were to Virginia, Indiana and Pitt, all unranked teams. Duke is winning by an average of 21.2 points/game at home. They just won three straight on the road, scoring 97+ twice. Florida State is 1-5 ATS its last six Monday games (didn’t cover last week vs. UNC) while Duke is on a 6-2 ATS run its last eight Monday affairs. Play on DUKE

AAA

This is a 10* on WASHINGTON

A .500 record in the NBA may not seem like much to “crow” about, but the Grizzlies (26-26) are plenty happy with it as right now they’d be the 8th and final playoff team out West. Not much was expected from Memphis this year. Certainly not a playoff berth. But led by Ja Morant, they’ve really transformed and are currently on a 7-2 SU/ATS run. They did lose Friday in Philadelphia though. Both losses in the last nine games were on the road and by double digits. Washington is another team we expected little from this year and they’ve been more in line with that projection, coming in at 18-32. But they upset Dallas on Friday, right here at home, for what was their third win in four games. All those games have been at home and they were a three-point dog when they beat the Mavs 119-118. What we find significant about the line here is that Memphis has only been a road favorite three times previous to this. While they may be 14 games below .500, the Wizards are only 2.5 games back of the final playoff spot in the East. So don’t look for them to pack it in anytime soon. They are 10-6 ATS as a home underdog, winning nine of those games straight up. They can score (115.6 points/game) and have won seven of nine home games overall. Play on WASHINGTON

AAA

This is a 10* on WASHINGTON STATE

Washington has lost seven out of eight, not to mention five straight. It should be pointed out that all but one of the losses (at Colorado) was by six points or fewer. Once ranked in the top 25, the Huskies’ NCAA Tournament dreams are now on life support. Obviously they can hardly afford another loss. But rival Washington State would love nothing more than to play “spoiler” here, just as they’ve done three of their past four home games. They weren’t as lucky last weekend, losing 66-49 to Arizona, but that’s one of the top teams in the Pac 12. Before that the Cougars had won three in a row here in Pullman, every time as an underdog. While neither team has played since last Saturday, we do know that Wazzu has won the last three times it has taken the floor with at least seven days rest. We also know Washington has failed to cover eight straight road games. The key to the Huskies’ slide has been the absence of PG Green, who was ruled academically ineligible last month. They’ve won just once without him and now are the last place team in the conference. Can’t back this young team laying points on the road. Play on WASHINGTON STATE

This is a 10* on IDAHO

To Big Sky country we go for this week’s top College Basketball side. Montana is leading this conference with a 9-3 record while Idaho is in last at 2-9. But Montana has a major problem when they hit the road as they’ve won just 3 times in 12 tries there and are also 3-9 ATS. They are laying a pretty decent sized number here, maybe not as large as what you’d typically think a first place team would be giving to a last place team. But the gap between first and last in the Big Sky just isn’t as large as it is in other conferences. Idaho lost by only four in Missoula last month, holding the Golden Grizzlies to only 67 points. They missed eight free throws, which cost them the game, but it was still an easy cover as 13-point underdogs. Based on that number and result, this line clearly is too high. Montana has only one conference road win by more than two points. Play on IDAHO

AAA

This is an 8* on LOUISVILLE

There is a pretty big gap between the top three teams and everybody else in the ACC this year. What’s surprising is that last year’s National Champ Virginia is not among the three teams well ahead of the pack. The Cavaliers are currently running 4th in the standings, but this line is pretty indicative of the gap that exists between them and the three teams above them. Louisville is in first place having won 11 of its 12 ACC games. That one loss was a while ago as the Cardinals have won nine in a row, including at Duke. The last four Louisville wins have all come by double digits. What ails UVA this season is an offense that only scores an average 56.0 points/game. The average gets even lower on the road. They are just 276th in offensive efficiency nationally. This game means a lot to Louisville. They’ve lost nine in a row to Virginia. So there won’t be any kind of letdown. If anything, the favorite should be at its best this afternoon. They’ve gone 5-1 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. Play on LOUISVILLE

AAA

This is a 10* on IONA

Iona continues to underperform as they are now 3-13 ATS this season following an UGLY 72-49 loss to Manhattan on Super Bowl Sunday. That was the Gaels third loss in a row. Although Sunday wasn’t one of them, there have been seven different times that the Gaels have lost a game outright that were favored to win. They’ll be underdogs again tonight in Quinnipiac, who isn’t exactly tearing it up against the rest of the MAAC either. The Bobcats lost 75-59 to Niagara on Sunday, their fourth double digit loss in the past six games. While a decent team at home, Quinnipiac just doesn’t have what it takes to cover this spread. They were favored in that loss to Niagara on Sunday and the last time they laid this many points was vs. St. Peter’s on 1.18, a game they promptly lost by 20. Iona is better than its record as tonight marks just the THIRD time in conference play that they are getting points. Can’t say the same for Quinnipiac. Play on IONA

AAA

This is a 10* on PORTLAND

After a four-game win streak that saw them upset Houston, the Lakers and Utah, Portland got severely humbled out in Denver Tuesday night. They lost 127-99 as a 4.5 point underdog. It was their worst defeat of the year, at least when it comes to margin. But now they return home for a big game against San Antonio. Both these teams are chasing the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. Right now, the Blazers have a half game lead. San Antonio is on its annual “Rodeo Road Trip” and it hasn’t started well with losses to both the Clippers and Lakers. The Lakers got them by 27 on Tuesday so both teams are coming into this game off blowout losses. But it’s the Spurs third road game in four nights, putting them at a distinct disadvantage. The Spurs are 8-16 on the road. Damian Lillard has been on fire recently for Portland and should lead his team to an easy home victory tonight. Lay the points. Play on PORTLAND

AAA

This is a 10* on COLORADO 

California might be a lot better now when compared to years past, but they still have yet to win a single game outside of Berkeley this season. They are 0 for 7. The three road games they’ve played against Pac 12 opponents have all been double digit losses with the average margin coming by just over 19 points/game. Despite being off three straight ATS wins (all at home) and an upset of Oregon State on Saturday, the Bears are up against it tonight in Boulder where they face a Colorado side that has been pretty impressive throughout 2019-20. The Buffaloes are 17-5 and ranked #24 in the latest AP Poll. They are definitely a top three team in the Pac 12. Saturday saw them go to USC and crush the Trojans 78-57. At home, they are averaging 76.2 points/game. That should be more than enough to cover tonight’s spread as Cal is averaging a rather pathetic 53.7 points/game on the road. Play on COLORADO

AAA

This is a 10* on the CLIPPERS

Today is the beginning of the most challenging part of the season for the Miami Heat. From now until Feb 20th (which is the first game after the All-Star Break), they’ll be on the road. We all know what the Heat are capable of at home where they’ve gone 22-3 and just destroyed Philadelphia 137-106. But obviously the road has been far less kind as the Heat have played only .500 ball, going 12-12. The long road trip starts against one of the best teams in the league and the Clippers can be pretty rude hosts themselves. LA is 21-5 at home and this will be their final time playing here before breaking for All Star Weekend. When Paul George and Kawhi Leonard both play, the Clippers are pretty unbeatable. WIth those two both in the lineup tonight, the game being on national television and it being the last home game before the All Star Break, look for a really solid effort from the home side. The Heat are 0-3 this year after a game in which they scored 130 or more points. Play LA CLIPPERS

AAA

This is a 10* on NOTRE DAME

There is no doubt that the ACC is having a down year. There are three really good teams (Duke, L’ville, FSU), but beyond that no one is a lock to make the NCAA Tournament. Only five of the 15 members have winning records in conference play right now. Neither Pitt nor Notre Dame are among those five. But when it comes to positioning yourself for the ACC Tournament, winning games such as this are potentially huge. Notre Dame is just 3-4 SU its past seven games, however all four losses came by five points or fewer. They have won their last two, both here in South Bend where they are now 11-3 SU this season. Both wins were as favorites as they covered a nine-point spread vs. Wake Forest (won 90-80) and 6.5-point spread vs Ga Tech (won 80-72). This is a similar type matchup for the Fighting Irish. They average 79.9 points/game at home. Pitt averages only 63.9 points/game on the road. Two things we really like about this ND team are that they 1.) turn the ball over at the lowest rate in the country and 2.) send their opponents to the FT line at the lowest rate in the country. Pitt won’t score enough to cover here. Play on NOTRE DAME

AAA

This is a 10* on ARKANSAS 

While it now seems like a bit of “ancient history,” Auburn was one of the final two undefeated teams in College Basketball (only San Diego St still left). The Tigers suffered their first loss of the season back on January 19th as they were blown out in Alabama, 83-64. They followed that up with yet another blowout loss, also on the road, 69-47 at Florida. Four straight wins, the most recent being against Kentucky, have followed. But three of the four wins came at home. We can’t overlook those two road losses or the fact the only win on the road since then came by one point (83-82 at Ole Miss) in a double overtime game. Now the Tigers head to Arkansas to face a team that’s coming off a win at Alabama, 82-78 as 3.5-point underdogs. Auburn did not shoot well in the win over Kentucky, making only 35.3 percent of their total field goal attempts, which includes 6 of 23 from three-point range. A big reason Arkansas has been able to win 11 of its 13 home games this year is that they are allowing only 59.5 PPG. Auburn comes in ranked #11 in the country, which is clearly too high. They also have a giant lookahead to a home game vs. LSU this weekend. Play on ARKANSAS

AAA

This is a 10* on CLEVELAND

We’ve got two BAD teams facing off here, although the Knicks have surprisingly been playing better of late. They’ve gone 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games, which includes a 106-86 win here in Cleveland back on MLK Day. On Saturday, the Knicks shocked the Pacers, winning 92-87 as 11-point underdogs. The Cavs have been terrible, with just one win in their past 11 games, but we like them to get revenge against the Knicks tonight. It’s been a LONG time since the Cavs won a game at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse. You’d have to go back to before Christmas when they won three in a row. Since then, it’s been 10 straight losses here, including an embarrassing one to Golden State on Saturday where they were favored and lost 131-112. We expect an “all hands on deck” approach to this one from the home side as this is a game Cleveland “knows” it can win. The Knicks have won as an underdog eight times previous to the win at Indiana. Only twice have they followed that up by winning again. Play on CLEVELAND

AAA

This is a 10* on CLEVELAND

How far the mighty have fallen! The Warriors and Cavaliers met four straight years in the NBA Finals (2015-18), but that seems like “ancient history” now as Golden State (who won three of those finals) have been besieged by injuries while Cleveland (won 2016 Finals) saw LeBron James leave them for a second time. The Cavs are still trying to find their way post-LeBron, but they actually have a better record than the Warriors this season (13-36 vs. 10-39), which is obviously something that nobody anticipated being the case. Since a four-game win streak from 12/20-12/27, Golden State has won just once (1/18 vs. Orlando). They have lost 15 of 16 overall and their last road win was December 6th in Chicago! It’s 10 straight losses on the road including a pair of double digit defeats to Boston and Philadelphia this week. Therefore, we relish the opportunity to lay such a short number here, even with a team like Cleveland. It’s not like the Cavaliers aren’t going to be motivated tonight. Since the 2016 Finals (when they came back to win after facing a 3-1 series deficit), they are just 2-13 vs. Golden State including nine losses in a row. Time for that streak to end. Play on CLEVELAND

AAA

THis is a 10* on LONG BEACH STATE

You may not think much of a Long Beach State team that’s just 7-15 overall and 2-4 in conference play. But there are two reasons you should believe in the 49ers tonight. First off, they are at home. While the 49ers may have lost Thursday at UC Riverside (77-69 as eight-point underdogs), their last home game saw them upset UC Irvine, who is the top team in the Big West. LBSU is the only team to have handed UC Irvine a conference loss thus far. They also handed tonight’s opponent, UCSB, a loss back on January 11th. That was an even bigger upset as the 49ers were 14-point underdogs in a 55-52 win. They held the Gauchos to 9 of 29 on two-point attempts, which is pretty ridiculous. It was the fifth time in a row the road team won in this particular Big West rivalry. We’ll buck that trend tonight, however, as three of those five games were decided by five points or less and UCSB has lost its last two Big West road games. The last one was Thursday as they fell to CS-Northridge 79-67 as a three-point favorite. Play on LONG BEACH STATE

AAA

This is an 8* on PRINCETON

Ivy League teams are accustomed to playing back to back nights (Friday and Saturday). But this week marks the first occurrence of that happening in conference play. Harvard, who has not covered once in its last four games, lost 75-72 as a one-point favorite to Penn last night. It was the Crimson’s 1st Ivy League loss as they had previously swept a home and home from Dartmouth. Princeton now has a 3-0 conference record after beating Dartmouth 66-44 last night. The Tigers were 5.5-point favorites and at home for that one, so the schedule is in their favor as Harvard is playing two straight on the road. Princeton previously swept a home and home from Penn (who just beat Harvard) and has won five in a row overall. They are 0-4 straight up and against the spread vs. Harvard the past two years, so you know they are eager to take the court tonight. We really don’t understand why the home team isn't favored in this one. Play on PRINCETON

AAA

This is a 10* on HOUSTON

This game is on ESPN. Unfortunately, we won’t be seeing Luka Doncic as the Mavs superstar re-injured his ankle in practice Thursday. The same ankle was sprained earlier in the year causing Doncic to miss four games. He’s reportedly going to miss at least the next two. Both Dallas and Houston enter this game at 29-18, tied for 5th in the Western Conference. But with Doncic out, it’s pretty clear which team is going to be better and we’ll look to take full advantage. The Rockets have lost six of nine and just split four games on the road. They’re off a loss in Portland, 125-112 as a 5-point favorite. So look for them to come out highly motivated in their return home against a wounded rival. They are 6-2 ATS off a double digit loss this season. Dallas was just buried, at home, by Phoenix and that was with Doncic in the lineup. We faded the Mavs there as they lost for a third time in the last five games and gave up a season-high 133 points. Houston also has revenge here for a 14-point loss earlier in the year when Doncic went for 41 points. He won’t be there tonight so look for superstars James Harden and Russell Westbrook to carry the Rockets to a big victory. Play on HOUSTON

AAA

This is a 10* on COLUMBIA

Yale is the class of the Ivy League this year, but with that comes the weight of expectations and we’re likely to see them be overpriced on a game by game basis. The Bulldogs opened Ivy League play by sweeping a home and home with Brown. In between those two wins, they beat Howard 89-75 on the road. But Columbia won’t be intimidated tonight. They won here last season, as a 12.5-point underdog, 83-75. The Lions split a home and home with Cornell to open their Ivy League schedule. There was no game in between for them. Both teams have been off for at least six days coming into tonight. Yale lost its only previous game this year when they had that much rest and could be rusty tonight. Columbia is 3-1 when playing with 5 or 6 days rest this season. Pulling the outright upset at Yale for the second straight year may not seem likely, but Columbia staying within the number certainly does. This is only the 4th time Yale has been a favorite of 12.5 or more points the last three seasons. They are 1-2 ATS the previous three instances. Play on COLUMBIA

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This is a 10* on DENVER

Bad spot here for Utah as they lost last night in San Antonio and now head to Denver where they’ll have to not only deal with the elevation but also a Nuggets team that sports the same 32-15 SU record. Denver, like Utah, lost its last game. But that was in Memphis. When playing at home, the Nuggets are 18-6 and holding teams to 103.9 points/game. Utah hasn’t had many back to backs this year (only four prior to this one). The last two games have seen the Jazz fall as favorites. Not only were they -5 at San Antonio, but they were -14.5 vs. Houston as the Rockets won that game without James Harden and Russell Westbrook. A third game in four nights, with no rest, is going to be too much to overcome here as Denver is every bit as motivated off their loss. While this is the first time facing the Jazz, he Nuggets record in division games this year is 6-0 (straight up). Play on DENVER

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This is a 10* on EASTERN KENTUCKY

Eastern Kentucky has put together a three-game win streak and what’s most impressive about it is that all three wins were on the road. Two were as underdogs of 7.5 points or more and the Colonels scored 80 or more in all three. They might be just 9-12 overall, but they have a 6-2 record vs. the Ohio Valley Conference as they’re a solid third, trailing only the two unbeaten teams - Murray State and Austin Peay. Tonight EKU takes its turn as a favorite facing a bad Tennessee-Martin team that is near the bottom of the OVC with a 2-6 record. The Skyhawks are giving up a ton of points this year, 83.7 per game to be exact, and it only gets worse when they are on the road. They picked up a rare win Saturday, beating SIU-Edwardsville 79-76, but at no point this season have the Skyhawks been able to win two in a row. This is a shockingly low number to lay to a bad team like Tenn-Martin. Play on EASTERN KENTUCKY

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This is a 10* on SAN JOSE ST

San Jose State won its last game, 90-81 over Air Force, which will give it some much needed confidence going into tonight where they are big underdogs at Boise State. The host Broncos won their only game last week, 87-53 at Fresno State. But before that, they hadn’t won a game by more than 11 points since before 2020 began. So we’re going to fade here as this looks to be an inflated line. San Jose State has definitely struggled here in Boise in the past, including a 48-point loss last year. That was the 16th straight loss here and the Spartans are just 3-13 ATS in those games. But this time will be different as this team comes in motivated and ready to play. Boise State is just 1-3 ATS off its conference wins this season. Play on SAN JOSE STATE

This is a 10* on NEW YORK

The Knicks 5-game ATS win streak came to an end last night in Charlotte as they lost to the Hornets by a score of 97-92. They blew a 13-point lead. We thought the game would end up being a lot higher scoring and the reason it wasn’t is NY couldn’t buy a basket. That was a stark contrast to their last time playing at home when they shot 53.3% in a 110-97 win over Brooklyn. The Grizzlies head to Madison Square Garden this evening looking to win a fourth straight game and for the 11th time in 13 games. Memphis also played yesterday as they beat Denver 104-96, thanks to some real sharp shooting. They finished the game at 56.1%, their third game in a row at above 52% (3-0 ATS). Don’t think they’ll be able to sustain that level of shooting. There’s also some pressure on Memphis here as a win would get them to .500, something they haven’t been this late in a season in several years. The Grizzlies have not fared well in non-conference games the last few seasons, going 20-56 straight up and 27-47 against the spread. This is a team that’s only been favored in 12 games all season! Play on NEW YORK

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This is a 10* on PHOENIX

Dallas was a winner last night as they went into Oklahoma City and prevailed 107-97. That was no small feat as the Thunder came into the game on a 5-0 SU/ATS run. Here the Mavs get to play host to a Phoenix team that is like Dallas in the sense that each probably feels they should have a better won-loss record. Though they’ve lost three of the last four games, two of them were by five points or less. This is a quick 24-hour turnaround for the Mavericks and they just played three tough road games (Utah, Portland, OKC). Winning here by any kind of substantial margin seems like a difficult proposition. Phoenix is 10-11 straight up on the road and 13-8 against the spread. They’ve won at Boston and San Antonio already this month. Grab the points. Play on PHOENIX

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This is a 8* on MIAMI

Miami is having a pretty dreadful season. Back to back road games with Duke and North Carolina last week may have been the nadir. They lost those two games by a combined 55 points. That makes it four straight losses for the Hurricanes and six losses in the last seven games. But during that time they’ve played Duke twice, not to mention Louisville and Florida State. They’ve arguably faced the toughest schedule of any ACC team. Virginia Tech has avoided all those teams and thus is a surprising 5-4 in conference play. But the Hokies did just lose as a 4.5-point favorite at Boston College Saturday. They also got humiliated down the road in Virginia last month, losing 65-39. So they aren’t to be trusted on the road. We’ll fade here as this line screams “upset.”  Miami can score at home (76.7 PPG), something they struggle to do on the road. Play on MIAMI FL

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This is a 10* on CLEMSON 

Given the relative lack of depth we’re seeing in the ACC, someone was bound to overachieve. One of the bigger beneficiaries of that lack of depth seems to be Syracuse. The Orange have won their last five games to get to 6-3 in league play. They’ve also covered the spread in all five wins, which includes a pair of 2-point road victories. Jim Boeheim’s crew is back on the road this evening, visiting Clemson, who just lost to Louisville to fall to 4-5 SU in ACC play. This game would seem to be more important to the Tigers. One thing we like is Clemson holds visiting teams to an average of just 61.6 points/game. Syracuse allows 75.6 points/game on the road. Unlike Clemson, the ‘Cuse has somewhat skirted the ACC’s top teams. No Duke, Louisville or Florida State. They were picked to finish 8th for a reason. The win streak ends tonight in Death Valley. Play on CLEMSON

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This is a 10* on EASTERN WASHINGTON

Eastern Washington needed OT to prevail on Saturday, 81-78 over Southern Utah. The win ensured the Eagles would remain in a second place tie in the Big Sky with a 5-2 conference record. Tonight they host the team that they are tied with, Northern Colorado. These two are two back of first place Montana (7-2) in the win column, so whomever wins here is only a half game back. We believe that team will be EWU as they are averaging an incredible 93.7 points at home where they own a 7-1 (straight up) record. The Eagles are one of the highest scoring teams in the entire country, so it’s going to be interesting to see how they do against one of the conference’s better defensive teams. Northern Colorado only gives up 60.8 points/game, but we don’t like this spot for them as it’s the second road game in three days. The Bears beat Idaho handily on Saturday, 74-53 as an 8.5-point favorite. But be aware that before that win they’d lost outright as a 10.5-point favorite at home to Northern Arizona. This is the first time all year that Northern Colorado has this quick of a turnaround between road games. Play on E WASHINGTON

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This is a 10* on CLEVELAND

The Cavs lost their seventh straight game Saturday night as a long season seemingly gets even longer. But it’s pretty crazy to think that Detroit has only five more wins on the year than Cleveland does. Seeing this number attached to the Pistons immediately caught our eye as there’s no real reason for them to be this big of a favorite. Earlier in the month, these Central Division foes played a couple of tight games - both decided by three points or less - with the road team going 2-0. The Pistons are off a couple of double digit losses here at home - to Memphis and Brooklyn - so again, not sure why anyone would want to lay this many points with them right now. The Pistons have lost six of their last nine overall and are just 9-15 straight up and against the spread on the road. They are 1-5 ATS L6 as a favorite including 0 for 4 when laying more than two points. They didn’t cover either game vs. the Cavs earlier in the month. Play on CLEVELAND

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This is a 10* on SAN ANTONIO 

Toronto has won six straight games, pulling them into a tie with Miami for 2nd place in the Eastern Conference. However, the Raptors did not cover last time out as we said they would not. We took the points with the Knicks and tonight is a far more daunting road trip into San Antonio. While the Spurs are not as strong as they’ve usually been for Greg Popovich, this is a team that has won outright each of the last three times it has been getting points. They did lose, as a favorite, Friday at home to Phoenix. That game saw us go against SA, making us winners on each of these team’s last game. The Spurs won in Toronto 105-104 back on January 12th as a 4.5-point underdog. The Raptors are a bit healthier now than they were back then, but not as well rested, so this pointspread doesn’t make much sense to us. Toronto was off three days rest when they hosted the Spurs two weeks ago. Now they’re playing a second road game in three days. The Spurs have covered the last five games vs. the Raptors. Play on SAN ANTONIO

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This is a 10* on UNLV

The only team in the country still undefeated is San Diego State, who is 20-0 and ranked #4 in the country. But in the last week we’ve seen them fail to cover the number in home games against Nevada and Wyoming. They’ve covered all six road games this year but today is going to be one of the more challenging ones as they visit Las Vegas. We don’t believe the Aztecs are running the table so an eventual loss is inevitable. UNLV is holding visiting teams to 40.4% shooting and 65.5 PPG. The Runnin’ Rebels lost at Nevada earlier this week, thanks to a poor defensive effort. But they are certainly going to be “up” for this game, which figures to be the biggest home date of the conference schedule. That loss to Nevada was just the second in nine games for the Rebels and they beat Utah State (MWC’s 2nd best team) by 17 here at the Thomas & Mack Center back on New Year’s Day. UNLV is now the second place in the conference and the most motivating factor of all is they’ve lost 14 straight home games to SDSU. We believe they are capable of pulling the upset here today. UNLV has at least covered off four of their last five losses. Play on UNLV

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This is an 8* on TULSA

Tulsa will technically be gunning for a third straight upset on Sunday. They were 1.5 point underdogs when they won 67-54 at Tulane last Saturday. Then came the big one as they stunned Memphis 80-40 on Wednesday. They were three-point underdogs at home for that one, which was basically over by halftime as the Golden Hurricane led 40-17. It was their largest margin of victory EVER over a ranked team as they shot 50% against the team that came in leading the country in field goal percentage defense (35%). Tulsa also held Memphis to 28.6% shooting including 2 of 21 on three-point attempts! Here they are up against a far weaker opponent in UConn, who has lost five of six. The only win during that stretch was by six points. The Huskies are off back to back road losses where they were held under 60 points. Connecticut is 3-12 ATS after being held to 60 points or fewer. That includes an 0-4 record this season. Tulsa is 6-3 ATS as a dog this year, winning outright five times. With the way these teams are trending, we’ll grab the points. Play on TULSA

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This is a 10* on CLEVELAND

Since New Year’s Eve, Cleveland is just 2-11. Tonight at home, they hope the “third time will be the charm.” This week has seen them lose twice at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse, to the Knicks and Wizards, teams that are well below .500. They were even favored (-2.5) against Washington Thursday, but lost 124-112 due to lack of defense. But tonight looks like a good time to take a flier on the Cavs. They are getting Chicago, who is fresh off a terrible showing last night at home vs. Sacramento. The Bulls lost that one 98-81 as it was the third time in the past five games they failed to score 100 points. The Bulls aren’t a great offensive team to begin with and shot just 39% last night. They had only 12 points in the fourth quarter vs. the Kings as they played for the first time without Lori Markkanen. For a Cleveland team that doesn’t win much, this is one of their more “winnable” games in some time and will be treated as such. Play on CLEVELAND

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This is a 10* on OREGON STATE

Since turning in arguably their best performance of the season, that being an 82-65 beatdown of Arizona here in Corvallis, Oregon State has lost three in a row. Two of those losses came on the road, but Thursday’s 62-58 setback to UCLA did not. But we can’t see the Beavers losing two straight home games, even if USC is 5-1 ATS in Pac 12 play. This is an absolutely terrible situation for the Trojans. Not only is it a second road game in three nights, which is always problematic, but Thursday saw them come up short in a double overtime affair with #12 Oregon. Getting over that kind of defeat is tough and not something most teams can do within a 48 hour turnaround.  USC is only shooting 40.5% in conference play while Oregon State averages 78.5 PPG at home. Play on OREGON STATE

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This is an 8* on NORTH CAROLINA

What coach Roy Williams already called “not a very gifted team” has become far worse than that as North Carolina is now 8-10 and on a 5 game losing streak. They just covered for the first time in 2020 in Wednesday’s 79-77 loss at Virginia Tech. Those around the program are saying the problems are far deeper than just Cole Anthony getting hurt. Regardless we’ll back the Tar Heels on Saturday as they play host to a Miami team that just got blown out by 30 at Duke. UNC is no Duke but they don’t have to be with a pointspread of this size. Miami has lost five of its last six games, putting them ahead of only … North Carolina in the standings. Four of those five Miami losses have been by double digits. They’ve allowed 80 or more points in each of the last three games. As bad as UNC has been so far, this is a game they should … and will win handily. Play on NORTH CAROLINA

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This is an 8* on BUTLER

Butler looks to get back on track here as all of a sudden they’ve dropped three in a row. They were 15-1 with the only loss coming by 1 point to current #1 Baylor. But the competition is fierce here in the Big East and the Bulldogs have already lost to the two teams that will be their main competition. That would be Seton Hall and Villanova. We were on ‘Nova against Butler on Tuesday and that was a 76-61 game the Bulldogs were never really in. Thankfully, tonight the schedule lessens up with a visit by Marquette. The Golden Eagles just aren’t as good as Seton Hall or Villanova, even though they do hold a win over the latter. They are also 1-5 straight up and against the spread their last six visits to historic Hinkle Fieldhouse. Can’t see Butler losing again. They give up 54.1 points/game at home. With this not being a large spread, we’ll lay it. Play on BUTLER

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This is a 10* on PHOENIX

More than half of the games have already been played this NBA season and it very much looks like the top seven in the Western Conference have really solidified themselves. What order those seven teams finish in is still to be determined as is who is going to get the #8 spot. The Suns and Spurs are both contenders (for the #8 spot) and meet Friday in the Alamo. San Antonio, who hasn’t missed the playoffs since the late 1990’s, currently has the position after knocking off New Orleans in Zion Williamson’s debut Wednesday. Phoenix has the second longest active playoff drought in the league (2010) but has the feel of an improved team this year. Despite being eight games below .500, the Suns are very much a competitive team. They just faced the Spurs earlier in the week, at home, and lost by two points. So this is a revenge game and they are 18-9 ATS the L27 games in that situation. After losing by two to the Spurs Monday, it was a far worse showing vs. Indiana on Wednesday. But this is a team that’s gone 4-2 SU its last six on the road including an upset over Boston. While the Spurs are on a three-game win streak, all three wins have been by five points or less. Play on PHOENIX

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This is an 8* on NEW YORK

Despite losing the Finals MVP (Kawhi Leonard) to the Clippers and a myriad of holdovers to various injuries, the Raptors have persevered into 2020 with the third best record in the Eastern Conference. They’re as healthy now as they’ve been all season and that’s resulted in a five-game win streak where they’ve averaged 124.2 points/game. But tonight’s game is far trickier than its looks with the Knicks having covered three straight. New York played both Philadelphia and the Lakers tough here at home, losing those games by only three and eight points. In between, they went to Cleveland and picked up a 20-point victory. This is a pretty decent number that Toronto is laying here. Though they’ve yet to drop a game as a road favorite this season (9-0 straight up), they just failed to cover in Atlanta as 8.5-point favorites (won by 5) and that’s the only time they’ve been asked to lay more in a road game than what they are laying for this one.  Play on NEW YORK

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This is a 10* on SIENA

The jumbled mess that is the MAAC figures to untangle itself over the next month. One team to keep an eye on is Siena. Though only 3-4 in conference action, the Saints have been favored in all but one game -- a loss at Rider. Virtually every game has been close with four of the seven games decided by three points or fewer. A three-game road trip ended with a 72-71 loss at Niagara on Sunday, but Siena gets a reprieve here in the form of a home date with Marist, who is likely the MAAC’s worst team. The Red Foxes are 4-13 overall and that’s after going 2-0 last week with home victories over Iona and Manhattan. Siena figures to put an end to that win streak tonight as they are a perfect 7-0 at home and averaging 76.9 points/game. Marist averaged 79 points in its two victories last week, but that number is misleading as the 75-73 win over Manhattan went to overtime. On the season, the Red Foxes are averaging a paltry 55.6 points/game on the road. Expect this game to quickly turn into a blowout. 10* SIENA

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This is a 10* on BROOKLYN

From 12/28 to 1/13, the Lakers have won nine in a row. Now they’ve lost two of the last four games. They played last night, and won, but it was in unimpressive fashion beating the Knicks 100-92. That was on the heels of a humiliating 139-107 loss in Boston Monday. The road trip continues Thursday in Brooklyn where LA will be solidly favored. This is not only because the Lakers have the best record in the Western Conference but also because the Nets have been struggling badly. It’s four straight losses for the Nets and they’ve failed to cover every time. A 2-11 record since Christmas isn’t scaring anybody. But with Kyrie Irving and Caris LeVert having returned to the lineup, the Nets can only be down for so long. This is a really bad spot for the Lakers, who are playing their third road game in four days. It’s been a brutal schedule of late for the Nets. However they have been off since Monday. By not covering last night, the Lakers are just 1-5 ATS their last six tries as road favorites. Play on BROOKLYN

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This is a 10* on RICE

When UTEP and Rice meet - whether it be the football field or basketball court - the only thing on the line is usually pride. Both athletic departments should feel pretty ashamed. Here we are and the Conference USA rivals meet Thursday. UTEP is 3-7 straight up its last 10 games. They have covered only two of those. Rice is 1-7 straight up its last eight games. Here’s the thing though: UTEP is 0-7 on the road. In those games, they average just 62.3 points/game. For Rice, who is just 1-6 in conference play, this is one of their best shots at picking up a win. The Owls also are averaging 82.3 points/game at home. UTEP has just two conference wins. The Miners are just 13-30 ATS their last 43 Conference USA games. They just gave up a season-high point total (86) to Southern Miss last Saturday. The Miners should not be favored in this game. This is a price you probably won’t see the rest of the season if looking to fade UTEP on the road. Play on RICE

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This is an 8* on NEW ORLEANS

This game was moved to 9:35 et so that it could be shown on ESPN. You may be wondering why that is considering it’s two teams with losing records.  Well, tonight will mark the debut of Zion Williamson for New Orleans. The top overall choice from last summer’s draft finally takes the court and it comes at a time when the Pelicans are playing their best basketball of the season. Since December 23rd, the team is 10-4 straight up and 12-1-1 ATS. They just won by 10 in Memphis, which is pretty significant seeing as the Grizzlies came in sporting the league’s longest active win streak at seven straight. The Pelicans scored 126 points and made 21 three-pointers. The Spurs don’t play great defense, so with Williamson in there and Jrue Holliday being back, look for the Pelicans to go off again. This will be a successful debut for the #1 draft pick. Play on NEW ORLEANS

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This is an 8* on PHOENIX

Indiana did not handle the second leg of a back to back well, losing by 30 at Utah on Monday. They had just beaten Denver the previous night 115-107 in a come from behind effort. The Denver-Utah doubleshot is one of the hardest in the league. But still, the Pacers losing by 30 in the second game was rather discouraging. This isn’t a great road team as the WL record is just 11-11 SU and they’ve been outscored. Phoenix, despite a 9-15 record at home, actually has a positive point differential in those games. The Suns have made the leap to respectability this year and are 13-7 ATS as underdogs. Since Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton have played together, the team is 6-5 straight up. They did lose by two to San Antonio on Monday, but shot well in the game and almost won after being down by 20. Phoenix is a much better team than you think and worthy of a play here. Play on PHOENIX

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This is a 10* on DAVIDSON

St. Louis had a valiant effort Friday vs. Dayton, but ultimately lost to the Flyers 78-76 in overtime. They did cover the spread, but after leading the #7 ranked team in the country by eight at halftime and coming up short, there has to be a feeling of disappointment from the Billikens. Despite a 14-4 record, they are an underdog to 8-9 Davidson, which is telling. Before the loss to Dayton, St. Louis had been 4-0 straight up in games decided by five points or less. So, aside from Friday, luck mostly had been going their way. Davidson on the other hand has lost some close games. But the Wildcats were winners on Saturday, 72-64 at Fordham. As far as the respective won-loss records go, Davidson has played a harder schedule than St. Louis. They also average 83.8 points/game at home where they have won 29 of their last 33 games. Play on DAVIDSON

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This is an 8* on WISCONSIN

Wisconsin should clobber Nebraska here. Nebraska is one of only two teams in the Big 10 that has no chance of making the NCAA Tournament. They’ve lost 8 of 11 and three in a row. This is a team that gives up an average of 78.6 points in road games. Wisconsin may not score a ton as is evident by the fact they have not gone over 60 points in any of their last three games. But they still won two of those, only losing the one to Michigan State on Friday. Other than that loss, the Badgers have been playing tremendous defense recently. Five of the last seven opponents have not gone over 57 points. They win by an average of 15 points/game in Madison where their only loss in nine tries came by a single point. Considering Nebraska just allowed 80 points in its last two losses, this should be a big offensive night of the Badgers. Combine that with the usual brand of defense and you get a blowout. Play on WISCONSIN

This is an 8* on the CLIPPERS

A lot of teams are competing for “second best” (behind the Lakers) in the Western Conference. These are two of them. The Clippers currently have that second position with a 30-13 record. They’ve won three straight coming into this game. Dallas has won four straight and has a slightly better point differential. But the Mavericks are only 5th in the West, 2.5 games back of the Clippers. Earlier this season, they lost by 15 at home to the Clippers. Both teams have recently been hampered by key absences. Kristaps Porzingis could return tonight for the Mavs after missing the last 10 games. Paul George likely will not be back for the Clippers. But we’re still on LA. They are 6-0 ATS on Tuesday nights this season. But perhaps more pertinent is the fact Dallas is just 3-7-1 ATS its previous 11 home games. We believe that - with or without George - the Clippers are the better team here. Play on LA CLIPPERS

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This is a 10* on VILLANOVA

Villanova has been the standard bearer for the Big East since the conference realigned in 2013. They have the regular season title every year but one since then. But in 2020, they are joined at the top by both Seton Hall and Butler. The Wildcats will host Butler Tuesday. They come in as the higher ranked team due to the events of last week. They won both games while Butler lost both of theirs. So they’ve got the momentum. They also have the home court edge. Nova is 9-0 at home so far and giving up only 62.4 points/game here. At 14-3 SU overall, they are 12-1 when favored. This is a pretty small number. Butler just lost on the road - to DePaul. It was a 13-point loss. The Bulldogs turned it over 17 times and gave up a season high point total with DePaul scoring 79 and making 10 of 17 three-point attempts. Villanova comes in playing very well as they’ve won four straight. Their recent defensive play has been very good. They have won and covered four of the last five games against Butler. Play on VILLANOVA

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This is a 10* on RICE

North Texas is humming along with a 5-1 Conference USA record. They’ve won five straight games, covering the spread in all of them. That gives them a 13-4 ATS record overall and they are 6-1 ATS as a favorite. But it’s a big spread Monday, larger than what the Mean Green are accustomed to laying. They escaped Louisiana Tech with a 51-50 win on Saturday, a game where they were a six-point underdog. They won at the buzzer and it was their first win in Ruston since 1952! Fading North Texas in this spot seems pretty straightforward as there’s a letdown factor after pulling an upset like that. With Rice, there’s no letdown as they have lost six of seven and are desperate to pick up a victory. The Owls probably won’t win this game, their third on the road in the last five days, but keeping it close is something we like them to do. They are 5-0 ATS this season after allowing 80 or more points in their last game. Play on RICE

This is a 10* on HOUSTON

This isn’t the first time that the Rockets have lost three in a row. But it does feel like a season low-point. Monday sees them hosting an Oklahoma City team that beat them on January 9th by 21 points. But that game was in Oklahoma City. While Houston has lost three in a row as favorites and two straight at home, we expect this is the spot where they get back on track. The Thunder are just 2-3 straight up and against the spread since beating the Rockets. This is a third game in four days for them. They’ve been a good bet as a road underdog, but the Thunder are statistically below average on the road. Expect a very motivated effort from the home side in this one. Play on HOUSTON

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This is a 10* on DENVER

Denver is second in the Western Conference with a 29-12 SU record. They’ve come out ahead in five of the last six games, including each of the last three. They continue to be a strong home team as their record here in the Mile High City is 17-5 and they hold opponents to 103.1 PPG. Indiana, like most of the teams in the Eastern Conference, are strong at home but only so-so on the road. The Pacers have won four straight overall, but any of the last three could have been a loss. Now Denver did need OT to get by Golden State Thursday. But that was a road game. This seems like an awfully low number for the Nuggets to be laying on their home floor. We realize there are injuries that they are dealing with, but they still scored 134 points against the Warriors even without Murray, Milsap and Harris. Milsap could be back in the lineup tonight. Denver won 126-114 at Indiana earlier this month and is a deep team. Indiana is 6-14-1 ATS its last 21 road games vs. teams who have a home win percentage of better than .600. Play on DENVER

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This is a 10* on CAL

Two struggling Pac 12 teams close out the week against one another. California won a couple home games last week, beating the Pac 12’s Washington contingent, but failed to “show up” in an ugly 88-56 loss at USC on Thursday. Going back, the Bears have lost 5 of 7 and 7 out of the last 10 games. All the wins were in Berkeley. They’re on the road tonight, but UCLA is struggling in its own right. The Bruins have lost three in a row and six of their last seven games. They also could not even muster 60 points in their last game as they fell to Stanford on Wednesday. UCLA is 1-7 ATS its last eight games, so the idea of laying this many points with them is not appetizing to say the least. The team’s only win since December 14th was by two points at Washington. We don’t see how you could lay the points in this one. Play on CALIFORNIA

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This is a 10* on BYU

Gonzaga is #1 in the country, but we don’t believe they are the best team. It’s quite likely that they would be underdogs against Duke, Kansas or Michigan State on a neutral floor. They may not be facing any of those teams tonight, but they are laying too many points. Coming off a 50-point win over Santa Clara, we figured the Zags would be overvalued for this Saturday night matchup with BYU and they are. BYU has covered eight of its last night games, also going 8-1 SU in the same stretch. The only SU loss was by three to St. Mary’s in overtime. Since then, the Cougars have recorded two straight wins by more than 20 points. Look for them to give Gonzaga a run for the money late Saturday night. Play on BYU

AAA

THis is a 10* on MILWAUKEE

The Bucks are just plain ridiculous. At 37-6 SU, they are ahead of last year’s pace when they ended up having the best record in the league. If you’re surprised by the size of tonight’s line, you shouldn’t be. Brooklyn may have Kyrie Irving back in the lineup, but that hasn’t mattered so far as they’ve lost games to Utah and Philadelphia. Those are two good teams. But guess what? There aren’t any better teams than Milwaukee. Plus, while Irving is back, the Nets have lost some key support. It looks like backup center DeAndre Jordan is going to have to sit this one out. They may have won by only five points Thursday night, but the Bucks led Boston by as much as 20. They have scored at least 122 points in four straight games. The last three times they’ve gone to Brooklyn, they’ve come out ahead and covered the spread. The Bucks are winning by 12.5 points per game, which is amazing and we see them winning by double digits tonight. Play on MILWAUKEE

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