Stanford is coming off a loss, to UCLA that saw a 4 point difference in the fourth quarter before the Bruins scored late to pull away. The Cardinal should not be underestimated  here vs  4-0 Oregon and have shown flashes of brilliance this season, as was the case vs the USC Trojans earlier this season and are my choice getting points in this spot play. 

Shaw is 31-19 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of STANFORD.

Play on Stanford to cover 

Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin will be highly motivated to pull the upset this afternoon over former boss Nick Saban and Im betting he will get us at least the cover. He knows big Nicks ways. Im expecting future NFL QB Nick Coral  and company to do more than enough damage vs Sabans top tier D. 

Kiffin is 5-1 ATS L/6 as a DD conference dog. Ole Miss is 4-0 ATS L/4 on the road in SEC play as 14 or more point underdogs. 

Mississippi is 11-5 ATS in the last sixteen meetings, and 6-2 ATS on visitors. 

CFB Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (ALABAMA) - in a game involving two good defensive teams (16-21 PPG), after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 13-39 ATS L/29 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Ole Miss to cover 

Nevada is off a bye week after losing to KState. Now rejuvenated and hungry Im betting on a big effort here this week vs Boise state side that has lost the stats battles in 3 of 4 games this season. The Wolfpack Rank No. 6 overall in the nation in Returning Production  and have  all 22 returning starters from last season and deserve respect here as underdogs vs a inconsistent Cowboys team that is not as dominant of Blue Carpet as the once were. 

Nevada is 6-1 ATS L/7 after a bye. Nevada is 9-1 ATS in games when coming off a SU favorite loss, including 7-0 ATS vs a side like Boise coming off a victory.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NEVADA) - poor rushing team - averaging 125 or less rushing yards/game are 54-22 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate.

Play on Nevada to cover 

The Notre Dame Fighting  Irish have won 18 straight regular season tilts and 26 consecutive home games and  have the deeper lineup with more talent than the Bearcats. After watching the Irish against Wisconsin last weeks it's obvious their starting to jell now and are going into this game in peak condition. Hey Cincinnati is a fine team and deserve respect, but as as favorites not so much especially here on the road. It's one thing to roll up on a inconsistent Indiana side, with a negligible history and it's another thing to stroll into Notre Dame and garner a win vs the Irish. While anything is possible, taking points here is the smart money play. 

NOTRE DAME is 8-1 ATS  vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons. Kelly is 10-1 ATS  after a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better in all games he has coached since 1992. Kelly is 12-2 ATS  after gaining 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games in all games he has coached since 1992.

CFB  teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NOTRE DAME) - good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game, after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games are 69-32 L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate. 

Play on Notre Dame to cover 

Minnesota was extremely impressive in  a  30-0 road shutout of Colorado a couple of weeks ago and than in a huge emotional letdown spot fell asleep at the proverbial wheel vs non conference opponents Bowling Green and lost a 14-10 sleeper. This week Im betting Minnesota being much more awake and ready for redemption against a Purdue team that is dealing with a crap load full of injuries coming into this game. 

MINNESOTA is 6-0 ATS vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return over the last 3 seasons. MINNESOTA is 13-3 ATS in road games vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game. MINNESOTA is 10-1 ATS after allowing 40 or less rushing yards last game.

 MINNESOTA is 2-0 against the spread versus PURDUE over the last 3 seasons

CFB Road underdogs vs. the money line (MINNESOTA) - after allowing 250 or less total yards/game over their last 3 games, with 9 or more defensive starters returning are 24-12 L/29 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Home favorites (PURDUE) - after scoring 14 points or less last game against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 35-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate.

Play on Minnesota to cover

Western Michigan has won 3 straight games but this is a bad road matchup for them vs a Buffalo Bulls side that  are 17-1 ATS at home since 2017, including 14-0 ATS in conference games. Lester is 1-8 ATS after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins as the coach of W MICHIGAN. Lester is 0-6 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game as the coach of W MICHIGAN.

BUFFALO is 22-10 ATS  in home games vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game.

W MICHIGAN is 3-12 ATS  as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.

Play on Buffalo to cover 

The Owls are up trending in my power rankings and despite of a .500 record at  2-2 SU, they   have  out-gain their opposition  by 56 YPG. Meanwhile, Memphis has proven themselves highly inconsistent this season, and going back a few seasons HC Silverfield 0-6 ATS on the road  in Saturday tilts.  

Memphis is a perfect 6-0 ATS L/6 in this series.

TEMPLE is 19-4 ATS L/23 after allowing 75 or less passing yards in their last game which was the case in a 41-7 win vs Wagner. 

CFB home team vs. the money line (TEMPLE) - with an excellent defense - allowing 285 or less total yards/game, after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 46-5 L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Temple 

Im betting Utah State got caught looking ahead to this tilt vs BYU last week when they suffered a home loss vs Boise State after winning their first 3 games vs Washington State, N.Dakota and Air Force. I know tonight opponent BYU has proven themselves to be a very strong side to this point in the season, but according to my own projections this line is over done, and the home underdog has value . It must be noted that BYU has failed to cover 10 of their L/12 as favorites, and USU head coach Blake Anderson is 5-0 SU and 4-0 ATS at home in his career when coming off a home defeat which was the case last time out.  

BYU is 1-10 ATS  vs. inconsistent passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Utah State to cover 

These 4-0 teams go head to head here this Friday night in game that Im betting will see the underdog cash and possibly spring the SU upset. Iowa has got to this point with a staunch defense (11 ppg), but their offense is needless to say less than championship caliber scoring just 27 ppg on average which puts them at a disadvantage on the road vs a a side that has also shown a strong D (14.3 ppg), but has also shown an explosive offense (37.3 ppg) while out-gaining opponents my 200+ ypg. 

 4-0 or better college football home underdog versus a 4-0 or better  opponent have cashed 12 of the L/13 opportunities. 

CFB Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MARYLAND) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, solid team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game are 27-7 80% L/5 seasons. 

CFB  Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MARYLAND) - good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game, after allowing 17 points or less in 3 straight games are 34-10 L/29 seasons for a 77% conversion rate. 

Play on Maryland to cover 

The Dolphins (1-1) will be 4-point underdogs on Sunday against the Raiders, a line that is at least partially inflated by the quarterback situation. Miami will play without starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa . However, Brisset his back is a viable  QB and deserves respect as he is above .500 ATS QB in his career with a 17-16-1 record. Meanwhile, Raiders running back Josh Jacobs (toe/ankle injury) is less than 100% and may not play.

Raiders are 0-8 ATS L/8 after playing Pittsburgh. 

Flores, meanwhile, is 1-0 against the Raiders. Gruden is 2-5 in his career against the Dolphins.Miami 5-1-1 ATS L/7 in this series. 

MIAMI is 15-4 straight up against LAS VEGAS since 1992.

Play on the Miami Dolphins to cover 

What has me looking at Atlanta this week vs NYG was veteran QB Ryans effort  last Sunday vs Tampa Bay that saw him throw for 300 yards in a 48-25 loss at Tampa Bay.Ryan, is showing  consistency for his team as it attempts to work its way down the field.Quote: "I think that's a recipe for success moving forward," Ryan said. "The percentages are much higher of converting drives (and) converting third downs when we are at third and five or less, so I think that's been pretty good so far this year." END Quote. Im not a big believer at this time in the Giants. I know both these teams are 0-2, but one looks more viable than the other. Note:NYG Saquon Barkley's rehab and play on the field is still sub par overall. Yes, there have been flashes of brilliance, but he still has a long way to go. 

ATLANTA is 9-1 ATS in road games off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more since 1992.

Visitor is 8-2 ATS in this series and the Giants are 2-6-1 ATS L/8 as home  favorites.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (ATLANTA) - excellent passing team from last season - averaged 275 or more passing yards/game, after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 24-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate.

Play on Atlanta to cover 

Steelers are banged up and have a key injury to T.J. Watts (groin injury) and to me have not looked cohesive this season. Something just not right , while the Bengals have shown some grit so far this season. The Bengals snapped a 10-game losing skid to the Steelers in the second meeting last season, a 27-17 win in Cincy and I wont be surprised of QB Joe Burrows and company find a way to get the straight up win here, and more importantly at least get us the cover. Bengals are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games in Week 3.

Bengals are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Bengals are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss. Bengals are 21-10-2 ATS in their last 33 games in September.

Steelers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite.

Play on Cincinnati Bengals to cover 

Nebraska looked cohesive vs Oklahoma before succumbing by a  23-16, count and deserve respect here as underdogs . Meanwhile,  Michigan State is  off a  strong 38-17 road victory vs Miami and could easily find themselves in a letdown situation vs a side that has had their number of late . Nebraska 8-1 ATS L/9 and  has won 9-of-11 vs. MSU, and the last two meetings overall.

NEBRASKA is 20-8 ATS L/28  in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing  7.5 or less yards per return. Frost is 20-8 ATS (  after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread in all games he has coached since 1992.

Play on Nebraska to cover 

Kansas State is a well coached team, and know how to win via a tough as nail defense as was evident last week in a 38-17 win vs Nevada. Oklahoma State in their 2nd straight road game will be in tough environment here after their road win vs Boise state last week. Advantage KState. 

KANSAS ST is 7-0 ATS  after a game where they committed no turnovers over the last 3 seasons.

 CFB Road underdogs (KANSAS ST) - good rushing team (190 to 230 RY/game) against an average rushing team (140-190 RY/game), after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game are 27-6 L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate.

Kansas State is 7-0 ATS as a dog of more than 4 points in this series.

Play on Kansas State to cover

Stanford has won 12 of the last 13 meetings with the Bruins and Im wont be surprised by an upset here in this spot play as home dogs. The Cards took out USC in conference play a couple of weeks ago, and now against a public favorite could easily grab the cash for their betting backers vs a over hyped Bruins team. 

CFB home team (STANFORD) - after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games, game between two teams with 8 or more defensive starters returning are 30-7 L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Stanford to cover 

 Rutgers has covered in its last 6 road games and according to my power rankings matchup well vs this Michigan football program. With that said, Im recommending we take the points.

MICHIGAN is 5-18 ATS  after scoring 31 points or more in 3 straight games since 1992. MICHIGAN is 6-17 ATS  after gaining 475 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games. Michigan has failed to cover in its last 5 conference games.

Schiano is 21-7 ATS  vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season in all games he has coached since 1992

CFB Road underdogs (RUTGERS) - solid team - outgaining their opponents by 75 or more yards/game, after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game are 91-46 ATS L/10 seasons for a 66% conversion rate.

Play on Rutgers to cover 

The Roadrunners average 39.3 points per game, 7.3 more than the Tigers surrender (32.0) and have the edge here this week vs a Memphis side in a letdown spot after a upset victory last week vs Mississippi State. 

MEMPHIS is 10-22 ATS  as a home favorite of 7 points or less. 

CFB home team (MEMPHIS) - after allowing 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games, with an inexperienced QB as starter, in the first month of the season are 8-32 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on UTSA to cover 

Louisville is coming off a top tier  42-35 win at home over UCF last Friday night and will now be in a huge letdown scenario vs a desperate Florida State program. Louisville, when coming off  a victory as host win as a dog of more than 7 points, are a lowly 28-49-2 ATS dating back 41 seasons. 

Norvell is 9-1 ATS versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in all games he has coached .

Play on Florida State to cover

The Tigers' may not be as proficient as the early prognosticators thought as is event by the offense ranking 114th nationally and DJ Uiagalelei ranking 88th in passing yards per game . Meanwhile,  NC State ranks 16th in total defense and 30th on offense behind and average 455 YPG this season as QB Devin Leary shows his top prowess. With that said we have an edge here taking points. 

NC STATE is 33-17 ATS vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NC STATE) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game, with 9 or more offensive starters returning are 148-87 ATS L/29 years for a 63% conversion rate.

Play on NC State to cover

I believe according to my projection matchups that the Flashes are well suited to hang tough here vs a inconsistent Maryland football program. Maryland  are just 1-17 SUATS in their last eighteen games when coming off a conference victory which was the case in their win vs Illinois.

KENT ST is 10-2 ATS L/12 vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game.

MARYLAND is 1-8 ATS vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing  7.5 or less yards per return over the last 3 seasons. 

MARYLAND is 7-20 ATS against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game on the season. 

Lewis is 9-2 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of KENT ST.

Play on Kent State to cover 

After last weeks fiasco in Wyoming where Ball State was annihilated, we now have value with a MAC championship team, that must not be underestimated. The Cardinal have won the last two meetings vs Toledo and according to my matchup projections have an edge as underdogs in this spot play. Its obvious to me at least that Cards are in a championship hangover mode, but should be wide awake. 

Candle is 3-12 ATS vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better as the coach of TOLEDO. 

8-2 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog and 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss of 20-plus points

Play on Ball State to cover 

UMass did not look completely out of place against  Boston College or Eastern Michigan and stayed with a 17 point margin, and according to my power rankings are up-trending. Yes, they were at close to bottom of my rankings, but non the less they are much more formidable opposition than they were last season when they lost by 34 to Coastal Carolina. 

CFB home team (COASTAL CAROLINA) - excellent rushing team (4.8 or better YPR) against an average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR), in non-conference games are 35-72 L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on UMass to cover

Boston College has looked strong to this point in the season as they are off to a  3-0 start , outscoring their opposition by a  124-31 count. Today vs what has been an explosive Eagles offense, Im betting Missouris crap defense that allows a ugly 455.7 YPG will get run over in a big way. I know the tigers can really pile point on but, BC has shown a strong D, allowing just 256 ypg and is well suited to slow down the Missouri locomotive. 

MISSOURI is 1-9 ATS in road games over the last 3 seasons.

CFB Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BOSTON COLLEGE) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, solid team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game and are 26-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. 

Play on Boston College to cover 

Padres starter VELASQUEZ is 6-0  against the money line vs. an NL team with an slugging percentage of .430 or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) He may not be considered a top tier hurler but he is obviously motivated when going against strong opponent. 

SAN DIEGO is 19-3  against the money line in home games revenging a one run loss to opponent over the last 3 seasons.SAN DIEGO is 20-6 against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons.

MLB Road teams (SAN FRANCISCO) - below average hitting team (AVG .255 or less ) against a poor starting pitcher (ERA 5.70 or more ) -NL, in September games are 52-84 L/24 seasons for a go against 61% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the San Diego Padres to win 

 Charlotte took out  the Blue Raiders 34-20 last season  as 5 point home dogs under HC Will Healy. That was the Niners first victory in this series in 5 meetings. I like the grit that Charlotte plays with and Middle Tenn state may not inspire some bettors, but here in revenge mode vs a home side that has only covered 3 of 8 games as FBS chalk my projections estimate a possible upset and cover by the visitors. MIDDLE TENN ST is 6-0 ATS after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 3 seasons.

CFB home team (CHARLOTTE) - after scoring 9 points or less last game against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 4-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHARLOTTE) - with a terrible rushing D - allowing 225 or more rushing yards/game, after being outrushed by 150 or more yards last game are 3-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Middle Tenn State to cover 

Everyone and his dog loves the Carolina Panthers , and the lines-makers are following suit and almost completely discounting the Texans ability to hang tough here and get the cover. I know their are some negative images put into the minds of the public, because  franchise quarterback Deshaun Watson has been made inactive because of on going legal issues  . But overall Im betting his absence is actually a good thing and makes this Houston team more cohesive chemistry wise. Ill recommend we take the points here even with Mills in at QB. * By the way Mills is tough as nails, and he will have a pro bowl left tackle in the lineup to keep him afloat here tonight in prime time. 

Carolina 0-6 ATS L/6 Thursday nighters. 

Texans 8-2 ATS on Thursdays. 

NFL home underdog of 7  points  or more with a  .500  record or better , going against an undefeated side are 31-9 ATS L/40 seasons. . 

NFL Underdogs or pick (HOUSTON) - excellent passing team from last season - averaged 275 or more passing yards/game, after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 32-7 L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Houston to cover 

Everyone and his dog is jumping off the Baltimore Ravens bandwagon. Last week they lost in OT to the Raiders, and now the football world believes in their demise after a sub par 2020 campaign. I however, am not one of those skeptics, and still believe this is a talented team that deserves respect as underdogs at home vs a very public side in KC. Hey I know Patrick Mahomes and company are a top tier group, but they have had problems covering of late in games that are deemed to be considered close by linesmakers like this game . Note: KC is 10-0 SU in regular season tilts  but  just 0-9-1 ATS in one-score games since the start of last season. 

It must also be noted that Ravens QB Jackson is 31-11 in his NFL career,  while winning 15 of 21 home games  His only game as a home dog during that victorious stretch was the season before last . How did he respond to that , well Ill tell you. His team won as 3 point dogs to Football god Tom Brady  of New England  by a lopsided  37-20 count. Im a believer and will back the Raves to cover.

Harbaugh is 10-2 ATS  in home games in the first two weeks of the season as the coach of BALTIMORE.

Play on the Baltimore Ravens to cover

Sometimes the pundits make to big a deal of week 1 results, and this is what Im betting into here this week. Minnesota ,looked a little uneasy and made mistakes in their first game against under rated Cincinnati. Penalties and false starts etc,. However, despite of what the so called experts say, they will have a better offensive line this season if they stay healthy, and  the D, Im betting can and will deal with the mobile  Cards QB Murray. As big chunks of public money come in on the Cards Ill swing the other way with the maligned Vikings. Zimmer is 6-0 ATS in road games after a loss by 3 or less points as the coach of MINNESOTA.

Vikings are 38-17 ATS in their last 55 games following a straight up loss.

ARIZONA is 3-15 ATS L/18 in home games after outgaining opp by 150 or more total yards in their previous game . Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

 Road underdogs or pick (MINNESOTA) - poor passing defense from last season - allowed 230 or more passing yards/game, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 29-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

MINNESOTA is 12-4 straight up against ARIZONA since 1992.Underdog is 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings.Vikings are 3-0-2 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Play on the Vikings to cover 

Cincinnati has a deep scouting report on Dalton the ex Bengals and current Bears QB starter, and will be well prepared to slow his production options. Plus Chicagos offensive line looks wobbly at best.  I also suggest that the Bengals D, is very under rated , and that QB Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase could easily be big stories in the NFL this season. With that said, Im betting on Burrows to take advantage of the Bears weak secondary, for big gains, and for the Bengal D to stand tall against a QB thats seen his best days pass him by. 

CHICAGO is 5-15 ATS L/20 after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs. CHICAGO is 9-23 ATS after allowing 7 or more yards/play in their previous game . 

NFL Underdogs or pick (CINCINNATI) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are 55-23 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate.

CINCINNATI is 2-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO since 1992 at Chicago. 

Play on Cincinnati to cover 

My projections and power rankings suggest this line should be no higher than 10 points and thus according to my estimates we have value attached to under rated Fresno State. It must be noted UCLA is getting way to much respect for their win vs LSU. Note: The Bruins have failed to cover 6 of the L/8 games vs non conference opposition as a home favorite. Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS L/5 vs Pac 12. Fresno State is also 8-1 ATS L/9 as underdogs of 10 or more points.

CFB home team (UCLA) - excellent rushing team ( 4.8 or more YPR) against an average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR), in non-conference games are 33-70 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 68% conversion rate.

CFB Road underdogs vs. the money line (FRESNO ST) - after allowing 250 or less total yards/game over their last 3 games, with 9 or more defensive starters returning are 90-46 L/10 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Fresno State to cover

The Boise State Broncos are  still looking for steady direction under new head coach Andy Avalos and inconsistencies have looked common here early this season. The one consistency I do see, is that the defense has some work to do, and here against an explosive Oklahoma State squad difficulties will definitely  arise here against  Cowboys star QB Spencer Sanders and company. Note:  The Cowboys beat BSU, 44-18, the  last time these teams met back in  2018. 

Gundy is 38-24 ATS in non-conference games as the coach of OKLAHOMA ST.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (OKLAHOMA ST) - in non-conference games, after playing a non-conference game are 51-20 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Oklahoma State to cover 

Both these teams can light up the scoreboard in a hurry and the lines-makers are well aware of this as they have set a high totals count on this tilt. When projecting scoreboard tallys is become obvious to me that getting points here is a value play.Fritz is 13-4 ATS  when the total is greater than or equal to 63 in all games he has coached since 1992. Note: Rebels 1-9 ATS  as a favorite when coming off consecutive victories . Ole Miss HC Kiffin has failed to cover 13 of the L/20 vs a non conference opponent. 

Play on Tulane to cover 

The Stanford Cardinal are off a huge win last week against USC, and will now be in a letdown situation this week here on the road in a SEC  venue at Vanderbilt. The Cardinal are 10-23 ats L/33 times off a underdog win. Vanderbilt is also off a \upset win, and Shaw and company are just 0-8-1 ATS L/9 vs these types of sides.

CFB Home underdogs (VANDERBILT) - after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game against opponent after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 26-5 ATS L/29 seasons for 84% conversion rate.

Play on Vandy to cover 

I have some futures tickets on Penn State and feel they are the most under rated team in the nation. While my assumptions may prove incorrect at some point , - for now  I feel strongly about their talent levels, and believe they can beat any team in the nation if healthy including their SEC opponent today Auburn who return just 9 starters from last years squad.  Auburn has blown away some sub par competition in their first two games, but here today their are in deep and that will show in the final score.

Penn State currently 2-0 SU/ATS this season  is 6-0 ATS/SU L/6 dating back to last season. 

Nittany Lions’ head coach James Franklin is  12-0 ATS over the last twelve games when coming off consecutive SU/ATS victories. 

Play on Penn state to cover 

. The Falcons are coming off a 23-3 win over Navy and Im betting they will be a in a letdown situation this week vs a under rated Utah State side.Utah State has averaged 311 passing yards per game through its first two tilts and the defense has only surrendered a total of 214 rushing yards and must be respected here as underdogs. 

Troy Calhoun is 19- 33 ATS ras conference chalk, and has failed to cover 16 of their L/24 after playing  Navy, including 3-9 ATS as favs. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UTAH ST) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 31 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored are 31-9 ATS L/29 seasons for a 78% conversion rate. 

Play on Utah state to cover 

This tilt is based on power ranking and projection output that favor the underdog covering this number. Each of the last 3 meetings between these CUSA rivals have been decided by 8 points or less. Im betting on similar results here thus giving us value with the home underdog. Last time out UAB was eaten alive by Georgia and that can be humiliating. College kids dont deal with defeat as well as pros do and despite of wanting to come back out here and get redemption, Im betting they wont be as able as many might think. Note:Clark is 1-8 ATS in road games after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse as the coach of UAB.

Play on North Texas to cover

Thanks to Georgias thunderous start to this campaign, Im betting that the lines-makers and public have got ahead of themselves and that we have value here with the underdog. Note:

Georgia has failed to cover 8 of their L/11 as conference home favorite  of  17 or more  points,. Meanwhile, South Carolina is 7-1 ATS as conference dogs of more than 15 points. Also from a personal perspective Im a big fan of  HC Shane Beamer,  and what he brings to this Gamecocks football program. Pride and grit Im betting gets us a slice of Georgia pie here this Saturday. 

Smart is 0-6 ATS  in home games after a cover as a double digit favorite as the coach of GEORGIA.

GEORGIA is 7-21 ATS  in home games after allowing 125 or less passing yards in their last game ( that happened vs UAB last week). 

Play on South Carolina to cover 

  The defending MAC champs Ball State had a game 8-game winning streak. come to end at Penn State.  Despite of losing to a top tier Big 10 team they did not look out of place and deserve respect here in Laramie this week.  Meanwhile, Wyoming,  beat Northern Illinois 50-43  last week, and Im having doubts about their overall ability to be a Mountain West contender.   

BALL ST is 22-6 ATS  as a road underdog of 7 points or less since 1992.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (BALL ST) - good passing team from last season - averaged 255 or more passing yards/game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning, in the first month of the season are 28-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate.

Play on Ball State to cover

Both these teams worked hard for wins last week, and now with both in an emotional letdown situation, the offensive fireworks may start slowly, with home field advantage taking precedent for me with Memphis. note: Memphis is 9-3 ATS against SEC opposition with an above .500 record  including 6-1 ATS at the Liberty Bowl. 

CFB home team (MEMPHIS) - after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games, game between two teams with 8 or more defensive starters returning are 28-6 ATS L/24 seasons for a 83% conversion rate.

Play on Memphis to cover

Northwestern is just 3-7 in its last 10 road games and do not instill confidence in being road favorites at an SEC venue , even though its at Duke. The Wildcats lost more returning production from last year  than any other FBS side, and cohesion going forward especially on the road will be an issue, especially with top tier defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz. 

NORTHWESTERN is 9-21 ATS off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite since 1992.

Fitzgerald is 17-32 ATS in the first month of the season as the coach of NORTHWESTERN.

Cutcliffe is 24-9 ATS  after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game as the coach of DUKE. Cutcliffe is 20-9 ATS  when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of DUKE.Cutcliffe is 33-16 ATS  after playing a non-conference game as the coach of DUKE.

Play on Duke to cover 

Purdue is 8-1 ATS  L/9 as 7 or more point underdogs , and the Boilermakers have cashed in the last three series meetings. Head coach Jeff Brohm has 18 starters back from last season, and deserve respect here as a pup vs a retooling Notre Dame program. 

Kelly is 8-19 ATS  off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite in all games he has coached since 1992

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PURDUE) - good passing team from last season - averaged 255 or more passing yards/game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 28-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PURDUE) - in non-conference games, after playing a non-conference game are 51-20 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Purdue to cover  

Kansas State has lost  QB, Skylar Thompson, to a knee injury , and there is no news on when he will return. So now we get to bet into a underdog line, on a home side, with a strong D, and viable enough attack to make life difficult for their Mountain West opponents Nevada.  I know Nevada beat Cal, but their ground game only produced 61 yards in that game and Im betting they have problems moving the chains again, via their ground game, and will bump into problems through the air vs the a under rated Kansas State secondary. The Wolfpack are 0-5 SU vs Big 12 . 

Kansas State to cover 

Gophers lost top tier  RB Mohamed Ibrahim for the season but still have enough backup talent to be able to cope with that loss behind RB Treyson Pott who rushed for a 178 yards and 2 TDS last time out. After watching the Gophers play Ohio State tough in their opener Im betting Fleck and company are under rated and deserve respect getting points even  on the road. 

MINNESOTA is 6-0 ATS  after a game where they committed no turnovers over the last 3 seasons

CFB Road underdogs (MINNESOTA) - marginal losing team from last season who won 40-49% of their games are 36-12 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Minnesota to cover

Indiana was humiliated by Iowa in a ugly 34-6 beatdown in their opener, and now need swift redemption against a top tier unit  in what Im betting is a must win situation for the Hoosiers here against a tough Cincinnati football program on a 11 game reg season win streak. Im bolstered and confident in backing Indiana after watching them smash Idaho last week, and feel strongly they dont go down without an all out fight here at home. 

INDIANA is 7-0 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons. INDIANA is 11-3 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons. Fickell is 1-5 SU on the road in  Big Ten play , including 0-5  SU when his team is above .500. 

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (INDIANA) - team that had a winning record last season, in non-conference games are 79-34 ATS L/29 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Indiana to cover 

 Miami Fl QB D'Eriq King, leads this experienced  Canes team . King  Im betting will use  veterans  to punch through a over hyped Michigan State squad. Look for running back Cam'Ron Harris, tight end Will Mallory and receivers Mike Harley and Charleston Rambo to unload with big numbers today. Just a quick note: Losing to Alabama is not something that should impact a negative connotation towards Miami, and their close win vs a under rated and always tough App State side,  the Canes should be looked upon more favorably. On the flip side Michigan State beating a depleted and rebuilding Northwestern team and than an  a FCS side should also not suddenly catapult the Spartans to football god status. With that said, Im betting the right side is favored and there is value laying points at 7 points or less. 

Play on Miami fl to cover 

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, is out with an injury and now  Taylor Heinicke will be under center for the Washington Football team . He’s made two NFL  starts , both at home that ended in losses and he could easily end up on the wrong side of the scoreboard again. 

Judge is 6-0 ATS  in road games against conference opponents as the coach of NY GIANTS.

NY GIANTS is 4-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons and Giants starting QB was the starter in all those tilts and will be again tonight. 

NFL Home favorites (WASHINGTON) - team that had a losing record last season, in conference games are 94-160 ATS L/38 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the NY Giants to cover 

This is just to many points to pass up on according to my projections and power rankings. Because   of Ohios loss to FCS school last week Duquesne we have a tainted line to bet into here with the underdog . Im betting on Ohio doing what they do best and pounding the ball on the ground here which will eat up clock and help keep UL Lafayette off the field. 

The Bobcats are 8-0 against the spread in their last eight Thursday games. The Ragin’ Cajuns are just  2-8 ATS L/10 as a 14-point or more favorite.

CFB Road underdogs (OHIO U) - team from a second tier division 1-A conference against a team from a weak conference are 23-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Ohio. to cover 

 Black- and-Silver bring a 5-1 ATS record on Monday night games into this tilts including  3-0 SUATS the last three at home . Im looking for these positive numbers to continue here at  Allegiant Stadium  vs a banged up Baltimore  side missing some key offensive cogs and that was not as potent last season on both sides of the ball. The Ravens are 5-10 SUATS L/8 seasons vs the AFC West, including 0-4 ATS when favored by 5 or less points.  Raiders QB Carr is 4-2 as a starter on Monday nights, including wins in his past three Monday starts and takes my money here tonight. 

 Home team is 7-2 ATS L/9 meetings in this series. 

Play on the Vegas Raiders to cover

Cardinals are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall.

NFL Favorites vs. the money line (TENNESSEE) - first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight ATS losses against opponent first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses are 28-1 L/28 seasons for a 97% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +14.9 ppg which qualifies on this spread line. 

The new quarterback for the Carolina Panthers Darnold has proven inconsistent during his career. Im betting his inability for stability to continue vs his former team. Considering how well the Jets internal scouting report is on him , this should be a bad bounce back start for the play caller.Matt Rhule is in his second season with Carolina after a 5-11 record in 2020 and I just don't like what they offer overall, even against a revamped Jets side.Panthers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. 

Take the points with the NYJ to cover

Philadelphias Jalen Hurts is better than he was at Alabama. Yes I believe he has matured and   Im betting after showing signs of brilliance , we will see him shine today behind an under rated group of WRs and backs.  Meanwhile, Atlanta  despite of having a veteran at 
QB  they. as a group look long in the tooth. Remember Matt Ryan is   36 years old, and his best days are behind him, as was the case last season as his team accumulated a ugly  4-12 mark. 

Atlanta  is 1-10 ATS L/11 as non division fav of 5 points or less. 

NFL Home favorites (ATLANTA) - team that had a losing record last season, in conference games. are 94-158 ATS L/38 seasons for a 62%  go against conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Philadelphia to cover

The QB savior of the Bengals Joe Burrows will be Im betting be the difference maker here today. 

Dating back to last season, Vikings are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games overall and  are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite and  are also  0-6 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.

Host 6-0 L/6 in this series and the Bengals are  8-2 ATS L/10 as non-conference Home dogs of 3 points or more. Bengals are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games on fieldturf and  are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 1 as well as  5-2 ATS in their last 7 home gams and from a long term perspective are 35-17-2 ATS in their last 54 games in September.

Play on the Cincinnati Bengals to cover

 Jacksonville's Trevor Lawrence in my humble betting opinion is being over hyped here. The kid was great at Clemson, but Im not sure he is ready to starter in this league just yet. I know QB  Dshaun Watson wont be under center for the Texans, but  the Texans: 6-0 SU last six games in this series while the Jaguars have lost  7 straight road games  and have been a chalk in only two of its last 24 overall trips to the grid-ion , with both of those tilts ending a loss for the Jags. with that said, Ill take the points with the completely disrespected home dog.  

NFL Underdogs or pick (HOUSTON) - excellent offense from last season - averaged 360 or more total yards/game, versus division opponents are 24-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate. 

NFL Favorites (JACKSONVILLE) - team that had a losing record last season, in conference games are 130-204 ATS L/38 seasons for a go against long term 61% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Texans to cover

 David Shaw is sometimes a hard HC to read. His team behind two QBs looked lost offensively, despite of the D, showing some strong potential this season, losing by a 24-7 final score to Kansas State last week. In this conference opener I do expect ,Shaw to stick with one QB, and for the defence to pressure a vulnerable looking USC offensive line giving Kedon Slovis some issues  with distribution. 

Cardinal is 11-3 ATS L/14 as underdogs of more than a Touch Down. 

Shaw is 30-19 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of STANFORD.

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (STANFORD) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins are 34-9 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Stanford to cover

Embarrassing is what must describe Vanderbilts opener vs a FCS school E.Tennessee State as they lost 22-3 . Wow. A new SEC low. However, now thanks to that ugly effort Im expecting a more wide awake Vandy crew here in game 2 vs Mountain West opponent Colorado State.

Note and Key trend: 17 returning-starter underdogs like the Commodores  in Game Two of the season are  18-2 ATS when coming off a loss of 15 or more points, and facing an opponent coming off a defeat l as Colorado State is. 

CFB Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (COLORADO ST) - after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game, with an inexperienced QB as starter, in the first month of the season are 7-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (VANDERBILT) - in non-conference games, after playing a non-conference game are 48-18 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate. 

Play on Vanderbilt to cover 

Michigan is off a big 47-14 win vs MAC opponent Western Michigan in their first game out , but it must be noted  Michigan is 1-11 ATS L/12 facing Pac-12 opponents like Washington, including 0-7 ATS when the Wolverines are coming off a victory. MICHIGAN is 10-23 ATS   after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game. I know Washington lost in an upset to the Montana , but in the past the Huskies have proved resilient- as the program has gone  8-0 SU in its last eight games after losing as a favorite, and 22-11 SU against the Big Ten L/33 meetings.

WASHINGTON is 13-4 ATS in road games after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse since 1992.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WASHINGTON) - in non-conference games, after playing a non-conference game are 48-18 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WASHINGTON) - good offense from last season - averaged 400 or more total yards/game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 37-13 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate. 

Play on Washington to cover 

Missouri won and covered the last time these teams met and now Im betting they will make a game of this tilt vs Kentucky as the dog covers for the 6th straight time in this series. Mark Stoops,  is a  bankroll depleting 3-10 SU in SEC openers for his backers , including 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS at home. 

Stoops is 0-9 ATS in home games after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse as the coach of KENTUCKY.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MISSOURI) - good passing team from last season - averaged 255 or more passing yards/game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 27-4 ATS L/10 seasons for a 87% conversion rate.

Play on Missouri to cover 

Memphis true freshman QB  Seth Henigan looked good in a 42-17 victory vs FCS opponent Nicholls  in their first game , as he recorded a  19-of-32 mark  for 265 yards and a touchdown in his first career start. However, Ive rolled over some of the tape and just does not look polished enough to handle a steady Arkansas state defense and Im fading the Tigers vs a team that has revenge on board  37-24 loss at Memphis  las season. Note:Tigers are  2-13 SU in road openers and 0-4 ATS on the road under Silverfield, including 1-5 ATS when coming off a victory. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ARKANSAS ST) - good passing team from last season - averaged 255 or more passing yards/game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 27-4 ATS L/10 seasons for a 87% conversion rate. 

Play on Arkansas State to cover 

Florida International has lost 7 straight games to FBS schools and despite of a win vs FCS school just dont look like they have it in them to defeat a up-trending program like Texas State who despite of losing 29-20 looked pretty good vs Big 12 opponent Baylor last time out  bringing home the cash as 14 point dogs. With a 17 players returning roster and a top tier QB in Bradie MacBride Texas State is a viable bet to win this game outright. Note: Texas State vs CUSA are 6-1 ATS and get the nod here. 

Play on Texas State to cover

. Georgia opened with a 10-3 win over Clemson in Charlotte on Saturday and now Im betting their in a letdown situation vs a staunch Sun Belt defense that is off a shut out and must be respected. Getting pumped up again vs UAB will be a difficult task for a Georgia club in a look ahead to South Carolina in their SEC opener. GEORGIA is 29-53 ATS   in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread since 1992.

CFB Home favorites of 21.5 or more points (GEORGIA) - solid team from last season - outscored opponents by 10 or more points/game, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first two weeks of the season are just 13-39 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on UAB to cover 

I don't like the way Temple is declining. They had a horrendous season last year, and now they started 0-1 after a 61-14 drubbing vs Rutgers  and have lost 5 of their L/6 road games SU and are fade material as this big a favorite, yes even against Akron. 

TEMPLE is 6-17 ATS against MAC opponents since 1992. Note: starting QB  D'Wan Mathis is downgraded to doubtful Saturday vs Akron ( Foot ). 

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (AKRON) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning, in the first month of the season are 23-4 ATS L/29 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (AKRON) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 31 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored are 31-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Akron to cover 

There is alot of returning production back from last season, and they must be respected as DD  underdogs vs a Notre Dame program that is retooling. Looking ahead to Big 10 competition next week, and in an emotional letdown state after a hard fought OT win vs Florida State last time out, Im betting we have an edge taking an explosive Toledo side getting points . 

The Rockets 11-4 ATS with a perfect record and are coming off a win of 28+  points, including 6-0 ATS L/6 in road tilts. (Toledo won last week( 49-10).

Fighting Irish are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Fighting Irish are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.

Play on Toledo to cover 

Illinois stepped up by taking down Nebraska  in week one of the season , but were in a massive  letdown spot the following week vs a under rated Texas State side and were upset . The up and down Illinois football side has proven fairly resilient in the past in this spot as they are 7-3 ATS away when coming off a SU favorite defeat. It must also be noted that  Illini HC Bielema is  6-0 ATS in his last six bounce back situations as a underdog when coming off a SU loss. The only  meetings in this series vs Virginia were won by Illinois. Both were  bowl games. I am not a big fan of what the situation is in Virginia or the type of recruiting that they have done, and last years 5-5 mark is a statement to that mediocrity. With that saidm  I'll recommend we take the point here. 

CFB  Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ILLINOIS) - in non-conference games, after playing a non-conference game are 48-18 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Illinois to cover 

I know the Dallas Cowboys are off a down season, but with a healthy Dak Prescott back behind center Im betting the Cowboys will have a bounce back season, as long as health issues don't rear their ugly head again. I know Mike McCarthy the Cowboys coach did not have a very efficient first season at the helm of Americas team, but the last time one his teams had a sub .500 campaign he bounced back with a 11 win season. Meanwhile, their opponents tonight the defending Super Bowl Champs will be Im betting in an emotional  hang over mode. Note: Super Bowl champs are 12-24-1 ATS L/  in their first two games of the new season, as 6 or more point favs. 

Tampa Bay is 0-5 ATS L/5 Thursday night home games. Bucs are 0-5-1 ATS L/6 vs NFC East competition. Buccaneers are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a home favorite. Buccaneers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games in Week 1.

 Boyz are 9-3 ATS L/12 as 7 or more point underdogs. Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

McCarthy is 95-66 ATS  in games played on a grass field in all games he has coached in his career. 

Play on Dallas Cowboys to cover 

 Mike Norvell in his 2nd year in  Tallahassee Im betting is ready to shine. Yes, I know Florida state has not played great ball the last few seasons, but they are a talented bunch that is uptrending in my futures power rankings.With that said they deserve respect here vs a Notre Dame side returning only 9 starters and 3 on offense with two key contributors from last season gone ie (QB Ian Book /WR Javon McKinley).

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (FLORIDA ST) - terrible defense from last season - allowed 425 or more total yards/game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning, in the first month of the season are 57-24 ATS L/29 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Florida State to cover

Dino Babers is way down on my list for coaches. Talent meets preparation, and Babers fails on that examination front, as is evident by his teams inconsistencies during his tenor at Syracuse which includes a 1-10 record last season. Meanwhile, Ohio despite of being without retired HC Solich , still has he assistant and now head guy Tim Albin at the helm and will keep the system his predecessor honed the intact. 

Last year ,Ohio averaged 216.7 yards rushing per game behind RB De'Montre Tuggle l who averaged  7.6 yards per carry, 134.3 per game,  including 7 TDs. Stopping the run was an issue for the Orange last season   allowing an average of  32.7 points per game  and a whopping  209.2 rushing yards per game last season.

Ohio is 46-34 ATS L/80  as an underdog.

Play on Ohio. to cover 

Two teams with Big Ten title aspirations will meet in a key early season opener when No. 17 Indiana plays at No. 18 Iowa on Saturday afternoon in Iowa City.

In a game I have pegged as. a single score game taking points with what my projections estimate is the better side is deemed a viable wager .Indiana is off a strong  season under fifth-year coach Tom Allen, finishing with a  6-2 SU record   The Hoosiers are ranked in the preseason Top 25 for the first time since 1969 and must be respected. 

Hoosiers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog.

Hoosiers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 conference games.

Ferentz is 22-33 ATS in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 as the coach of IOWA.

Play on Indiana to cover

The'Canes Im betting will continue to uptrend that they bring. back 19 starters. Meanwhile,   Alabama is down  3  key players who finished in the top 5 of the Heisman vote, and return just 3 offensive starters . Hey I know what recruiting is like at Alabama and a few 4 and 5 star studs should make them a  national championship contender squad this season, but here today against a under rated side with plenty of experience and talent Im betting on the underdog covering. 

Play on Miami Fl to cover

The Badgers are banged up on the offensive line and Im betting they have problems today moving the ball vs a under rated Litanny Lions D, that despite of giving up 27 ppg on average last season, allowed an average of just 329 ypg (the Lions numbers were skewed by alot of offensive turnovers) . Note: The previous 3 seasons the Lion defense allowed an average of just 17 PPG and this season and more importantly here today their D Im betting stands tall. 

Nittany Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games.Nittany Lions are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in September.Nittany Lions are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog.

Badgers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 conference games.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PENN ST) - good passing team from last season - averaged 255 or more passing yards/game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 24-3 ATS L/10 seasons for a 87"% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Penn State Nitanny Lions to cover

AT&T Stadium - Arlington, TX

 My projections suggest we have value with Stanford in this non conference spot play.  The Cardinal  have plenty if  experience on offense especially the offensive line where Im betting they  can dominate vs a  KState side that looked flustered at times on defense last season.  . The Cardinal are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games and have covered  5 straight times vs  BIG12 opponents .Cardinal are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games as an underdog.Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. Pac-12.

Play on the Stanford Cardinal to cover 

, Northwestern Wildcats  only return  8 starters and Im betting they down trend this season in Big 10 action. Meanwhile, Michigan state returns 16 starters, and have beaten the Wildcats in their last 2 meetings. I wont be surprised if the Magic of 3 rears its head here as my projections estimate an actual upset , thus getting points makes for a viable wagering opportunity. 

Fitzgerald is 17-30 ATS  in the first month of the season as the coach of NORTHWESTERN.

Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.Road team is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 meetings.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MICHIGAN ST) - with 16 total starters returning are 67-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MICHIGAN ST) - team that had turnover margin of -1 /game or worse last season are 54-23 ATS L/24 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Michigan State to cover

The Buckeyes look like an inexperienced bunch this season and  return just 2 seniors from the 2-deep chart and rank last in Top tier conference of 130 teams in returning yards gained offensive production . Meanwhile, Minnesota bring back 20 starters, including 7 seniors and 12 athletes from the 2-deep chart. This is a tough conference, and their are some surprises coming this season, and the Buckeyes inexperience may end up being a glaring issue. Advantage on the line for the Gophers. 

MINNESOTA is 10-1 ATS  when the total is greater than or equal to 63 since 1992.Golden Gophers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.Golden Gophers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf. Golden Gophers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog.

Play on Minnesota to cover

East Carolina is a program that may surprise some pundits this season and more importantly tonight  against the Sun Belt perennials App State . Shawn Clark will  have to deal with  a inexperienced  QB at the helm of  the Mountaineers offense. Meanwhile  the Pirates return the most production  of  all the football programs in the  American conference . HC Mike Houston Im betting is ready to make big strides in his teams competitiveness this season in his 3rd year. Advantage on the line goes to East Carolina. 

Mountaineers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite.

Mountaineers are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall.

Mountaineers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.

Play on East Carolina to cover 

The Jacksonville St  defense allowed their  opposition to an average just 17.6 points in offensive output , 92.3 rushing yards, and 2.3 ypc in a 13-game campaign last season. With key contributors back Im betting they remain staunch. Meanwhile, the offense is also dangerous behind top tier prospect  QB Zerrick Cooper who was on the Heisman watch list after leaving Clemson. On the flip-side, UAB is also a strong team that could make a run for the CUSA championship. Their strength remains on their grinding run game on offense and a defense that returns 9 starters. With that said, Im betting on the Gamecocks strong run stopping abilities and their superior QB to help them stay within the number in this game and to get us the cover. 

Note: UAB went 1-3 ATS last season as a double-digit favorites. Blazers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on field-turf.

JSU was  2-0 ATS  last season against FBS opponents.

Play on Jacksonville state to cover 

Overall Tampa Bay has had a better season than the KC Chiefs, and deserve respect here on a underdog line playing at home.  In last  seasons  Super /bowl Kansas City had been out-gained the entire contest by the 49ers until a late game-winning 65-yard drive .  In truth the wrong team won/ covered and  ever since KC has been looked upon in some divine way by the betting public. Something they do not deserve in my humble betting opinion. Yes I know how great a QB Mahomes is, but Tom Brady has far superior experience and now going into this 10th Super Bowl must be considered a NFL prime time super star with god like abilities. Bottom line: Both these teams can score, and both have top teir QBs at the helm of their offense, but to me the difference maker comes on defense. Defense wins championships : Note: Tampa Bay brings the league’s seventh-ranked defense to this big game. With said, it must also be noted that the team with the better D, has won 44 of the L/53 Super Bowls.

Key Stats. Red Zone Offense: Bucs 5th, Chiefs 10th.....Red Zone Defense: Bucs 19th, Chiefs 32nd .... Short Yardage Rushing Offense: Bucs 1st, Chiefs 32nd .....Short Yardage Defense: Bucs 21st, Chiefs 32nd

Key Trends: HC Arians of TB is 16-2-1 ATS at home against  non-division opposition coming off a victory, and is a bankroll expanding.  11-1-1 ATS outside the division when taking points at home. Tom Brady at home  is 12-1-1 ATS in his career  when not favored) . 

Play on Tampa Bay to cover

Two strong teams  with two top tier QBs Josh Allen (107.2 QB Rating) , and Patrick Mahomes (108.2 ) go head to head. The game is expected to be close, but I like the Bills here getting points vs a side that 0-8-1 ATS L/9. 

Buffalo is  11-5-1 ATS the past couple of  seasons as a underdog of 6 or less points. 

Bills head coach Sean McDermott 8-1 ATS as a non-division dog vs an above .500 opponent.  

BUFFALO is 8-1 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season.

NFL Home teams vs. the money line (KANSAS CITY) - after failing to cover the spread in 8 or more of their last 10 games against opponent after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games are 3-20 L/37 seasons for a 87% conversion rate.

Play on Buffalo to cover

The Bucs blitzed Aaron Rodgers on 18-of-41 drop backs in the first game they played against each other, and Im betting that kind of pressure will be on todays agenda. Advantage Bucs as underdogs in a game that could easily be a pickem.

TAMPA BAY is 8-2 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or more  yards/play this season. TAMPA BAY is 7-1 ATS in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 this season.

NFL Road teams (TAMPA BAY) - mistake-free team (1.25 or less TO/G committed) vs a team with 1.25 or less TO/G forced after 8+ games, after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 40-14 ATS L/37 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GREEN BAY) - after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 14-39 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Tampa Bay to cover

 The Saints beat Tom Brady and company have lost both meetings  this season but it must be noted that Brady is 18-3 SU revenging a  division loss  and   13-1 SU/ATS vs sides wtih a  .300 record or better with the only loss coming to the Saints this season.  Brady has never lost 3 times in a row to any team,. Considering HC Arians has won 16 of 23 road games vs division opposition and Brady seething with retribution at hand Im betting on TB getting us the cover. 

NEW ORLEANS is 0-6 ATS  in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Arians is 14-4 ATS in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing  7.5 or less yards per return in the second half of the season in all games he has coached since 1992.

NFL Home teams (NEW ORLEANS) - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (1.25 or less turnovers/game committed), after a game where they forced no turnovers are 14-37 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% go against conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on TB to cover 

The Raven enter this game peaking right at the fight time as is evident by having held their last three opponents  to 228 YPG, including a season-low 209 to the Titans last week . Meanwhile, Buffalo has played lights out all season, and really have not paced themselves. Here against a very physical side, that according to my projections is superior to them , getting points makes for a solid wager. 

BALTIMORE is 9-0 ATS  in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. over the last 3 seasons. BALTIMORE is 8-0 ATS  in road games vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return over the last 3 seasons. Harbaugh is 21-8 ATS  against AFC East division opponents as the coach of BALTIMORE and 13-2 ATS against those sides with an above .500 record. Harbaugh is 15-4 ATS  in road games vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 27 or more points/game as the coach of BALTIMORE.

Baltimore is 13-4 ATS L/17 play off road games.

NFL Home teams (BUFFALO) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 82-126 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 61% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Baltimore Ravens to cover 

The Rams are underdogs here  vs a very public favorite the Green Bay Pacers but are under rated as Los Angles HC  Sean McVay is strong bet  as a visitor, going 23-11 SU L/34 opportunties , including 5-0 ATS as a dog of 3 or more points. 

LA RAMS are 11-3 ATS  vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return over the last 2 seasons. LA RAMS are 6-0 ATS off a division game this season.


NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (GREEN BAY) - off a road win against a division rival, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 8-31 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against  80% conversion rate. 

Advantate LA Rams take the points 

 The Buckeyes  come in here as underdogs , but it must be noted that they are a bankroll expanding  14-0 ATS as an underdog of 3 or more points since 2009. Im not amored by Sabsans group this season, especially defensively  as was the evident when they allowed the Gators to pop 48 pints on them , making them vulnerable against what I estimate is one of Ohio State strongest  football programs in years. 

The underdog is 5-1 ATS all-time in College Football Playoff Championship games .

Saban is 9-19 ATS versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 230 or more  rushing yards/game as the coach of ALABAMA
OHIO ST is 21-7 ATS L/28  as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points .



CFB Neutral field underdogs (OHIO ST) - outrushing their opponents by 100 or more yards/game on the season, after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 3 straight games are 30-7 ATS L/28 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (ALABAMA) - after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game are  15-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Ohio State to cover 

The number here on this tilt is bloated according to my projections giving us value with the underdog. 

Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite.

 Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff home games. 

NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW ORLEANS) - off a road win against a division rival, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 8-31 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate.

Play on Bears to cover 

NFC Playoffs - Wild Card
TB with Brady under center are a pass first side, and the key to their top tier offensive output. However, Washington is one of the strongest teams in the league against the pass ranking  No. 2 with an 83.4 PFF coverage grade and -18.0% pass-defense DVOA. Im betting on the Washington secondary to be key here in limiting the Bucs offnensive numbers, and for the Footballers to cover the number. 
WASHINGTON is 6-0 ATS after a win by 6 or less points over the last 3 seasons.
 
WASHINGTON is 25-8 ATS L/33  vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game after 8+ games. Rivera is 14-4 ATS in home games after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games in all games he has coached since 1992.

eattle took out the Rams 20-9 when they they last met and with Rams QB Jeff Goff out or less than 100% the Seahawks look like viable bets for a rinse and repeat sitiuation again. Carroll is 16-5 ATS ( as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points as the coach of SEATTLE.

NFL Underdogs of +140 to +325 vs. the money line (LA RAMS) - after 3 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 4-45 SU L/10 seasons for a go GAINST  92% conversion rate with a PPG DIFF of - 11.4 ppg. 

Seattle to cover 

Tennessee was absolutely obliterated last week vs Green Bay and will now be primed for redemption here this week vs a Houston side with a 4-11 record and feeling less than motivated with nothing to play for as this season winds down. 

HOUSTON is 6-16 ATS L/22 vs. incredible offensive teams - scoring 29 or more points/game . HOUSTON is 0-7 ATS  after gaining 275 or more passing yards in 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons. 

NFL Favorites vs. the money line (TENNESSEE) - good rushing team (125 to 150 RY/game) against a poor rushing team (70-95 RY/game) after 8+ games, after allowing 175 or more rushing yards last game are 32-2 SU L/37 seasons for a 94% conversion rate with the average ppg diff of 9.6 ppg. 

NFL Home underdogs or pick (HOUSTON) - after having lost 4 out of their last 5 games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 12-36 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate. 

Play on Tennessee to cover

 It matters very little  what the Chiefs do today. They have the No. 1 seed and get a bye week coming up, but that does not mean that they wont want to stay sharp.  Take the points. 

KANSAS CITY is 17-8 ATS  against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons

NFL team vs the money line (KANSAS CITY) - an average defensive team (18-23 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (27 or more  PPG) after 8 games, after a win by 6 or less points are 27-3 SU L/10 seasons for a 91% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Underdogs or pick (KANSAS CITY) - mistake-free team (1.25 or less  TO/game committed) against a team with 1.25 or less TO/game forced, after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers are 36-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Kansas City to cover 

The Bears behind QB Mitchell Trubisky  have scored 30-plus points in four straight games for the first time in team history and in their current form are more than capable of ending the Green Bay Packers 5 game win streak.  I know the Packers really put the boots to the Bears when they faced them back in end of November by a 41-25 count but it must be noted that CHICAGO is 16-5 ATS L/21  in home games revenging a road loss against opponent by 14 points or more and are desperate to get a win and here and garner a play off spot. CHICAGO is  also 26-13 ATS  L/39 in home games versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry.

NFL Road teams vs. the money line (GREEN BAY) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a top-level team (75% or better ) playing a team with a winning record are 5-28 L/10 seasons for a 85% go against conversion rate. 

Play on Chicago to cover 

 These two sides the Raiders and the Broncos are probably busy booking golf holidays instead  of being fully focused on this tilt. But there is still some pride on the line here as the Broncos should be keyed up to reap some revenge on a  Las Vegas side that smashed then 37-12 as home chalk back  in mid-November . The Raiders are off three straight home losses and look lifeless setting up what Im betting is down performance here.  Note: NFL visiting sides like the Raiders  coming off three consecutive home losses are 1-8 SU in division games since 1980.

 LAS VEGAS is 0-6 ATS  in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more  yards/play in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

 DENVER is 6-0 ATS  after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse this season.

NFL Home teams (DENVER) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 35 or more points, off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival are 22-4 ATS L/37 seasons for a 85% conversion rate. 

Play on the Denver Broncos to cover 

The Ducks got into the Pacific-12 Conference title game only because Washington had to drop out because of coronavirus concerns. Oregon made the most of the opportunity by defeating host USC 31-24 for the championship and Im betting they will make the best of this bowl appearance. 

CFB Neutral field favorites vs. the money line (IOWA ST) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 22-12 L/10 seasons for a 65% conversion rate. 

CFB  team (OREGON) - in a game involving two excellent rushing teams (4.8 or more  YPR), after allowing 40 or less rushing yards last game are 35-9 L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate. 

Oregon to cover 

 These teams Ohio State and Clemson  took part in a 29-23 Championship event last season and Im betting on another close tilt this time around that will see the underdog cover. 
Key will be the Buckeyes  top tier standard downs Success Rate in the nation, which has been an Achilles heel for the Clemson defense.

OHIO ST is 20-7 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992 . 

CFB team (OHIO ST) - excellent rushing team (>=4.8 YPR) against a good rushing team (4.3 to 4.8 YPR), after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game are 51-23 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Ohio State to cover 

Notre Dame had a fine campaign, but they were exposed by Clemson in a one sided loss late in the season. Its the Irish D, that showed the most promise this season, but the Tigers slashed them, and Alabama is a side that can and Im betting will do similar damage in what my projections estimate will end uo in a one sided Alabama victory. The Crimson Tide (11-0) topped 50 points six times and averaged 49.7 points  second-best nationally, and have the guns to dismember any team in the nation, including a Irish program I have a high degree of respect for. Bama  offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian Im sure detected and dissected  what Clemson did in the victory vs Notre Dame. NFL Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (NOTRE DAME) - after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are 98-164 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate.

Alabama head coach Nick Saban is 104-1 SU in his career when favored by 17 or more points. 

Play on Alabama to cover

 Army Head coach Jeff Monken is 3-0 so far with the Knights in bowls and the program has won four straight going back to 1986. I have alot of respect for this HC, and his ability to have this team ready to play West Virginia here today. 
W VIRGINIA is 0-8 ATS  as a neutral field favorite of 7 points or less since 1992. 

CFB  team (ARMY) - after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 6 points or less last game are 35-11 ATS L/10 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.


CFB Neutral field favorites vs. the money line (W VIRGINIA) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 20-11 SU L/10 seasons . 

Play on Army to cover 

The Bulldogs (3-7) will make a school-record 11th consecutive bowl appearance, while the Golden Hurricane (6-2) will play in their first bowl since 2016 when they meet on New Year's Eve in the Armed Forces Bowl at Fort Worth, Texas.

Tulsa behind a top tier D had a fine season, but Mississippi State is a power 5 team from one of the strongest conferences in the nation and deserve our respect here in this spot.  It must be noted noted that. the underdog dog is 5-1 ATS in the last six Mississippi State  bowl games  and HC Mike Leach stands tall with a  26-11 ATS as a road dog against sides like Tulsa with a better record. Considering ACC bowl sides are just 1-5 ATS L/6 vs a the ACC, it was not a hard decision for me to pull the trigger with the Bulldogs. 

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MISSISSIPPI ST) - poor team - outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored 107-59 ATS L/28 seasons for a 65% conversion rate. 

Play on Mississippi State to cover 

 Mayo Bowl - Bank of America Stadium - Charlotte, NC

Wisconsin at 3-3 on the season  is getting far to much respect here in a rebuilding year. I know Wake forest finished the season, on a 0-2 run but ot must be noted that head coach Dave Clawson,  when off consecutive losses, is a bankroll expanding  10-0 ATS when the last loss was a  double-digit ATS defeat, which was the case . Clawson is also 8-0 ATS after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games as the coach of WAKE FOREST.

Take the points with Wake Forest to cover 

Colorado used to be a member of the Big 12 conference and it must be noted that when Texas played  the Buffs they smashed them  in five straight games by an average margin of 32.8 points. I know these are different manifestations of these football programs, but from a matchup perspective my projections. make the Longhorns DD favs in this spot thus we have value based on my numbers. 

Key to this tilt: Colorado had the 13th-highest rushing rate in the country this season, keeping the ball on the ground on 60% of its offensive possessions. However, the Texas  defense has been close to spectacular slowing the run this season, ranking 36th in the country in Rushing Success rate  allowing 3.6 yards per carry, rankings 25th in the nation. Advantage Longhorns. 

Texas HC Herman is 16-5 ATS  in non-conference games in all games he has coached with a the average ppg diff clicking in at +22.6 ppg. Texas is 3-1 in the Alamo Bowl, including a 38-10 win over Utah last season. With Herman at the helm of the program Texas is 3-0 in bowl games, winning by an average of 17.3 ppg. 

Play on Texas to cover 

The Bills who have clinched a play off appearance  won 24-21 on Nov. 1 in Buffalo vs the Patriots. The Patriots haven't been swept by a division opponent in 19 seasons, and Im betting the Pats will primed to keep that streak alive, and wont go down without a fight vs a side that may be looking ahead to the play offs and just as importantly staying healthy. Note: New England when they are seeking  a same-season division loss under Bill Belichick,  are  16-0 SU and 15-1 ATS the L/16  opportunities. 

NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 ATS in home games vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return over the last 3 seasons.NEW ENGLAND is 13-4 ATS L/17 vs. top tier offensive teams - scoring 29 or more points/game in the second half of the season. NEW ENGLAND is 20-6 ATS  as a home underdog of 7 points or less since 1992 and are 10-1 ATS L/11 as home underdogs. 

NFL Home teams (NEW ENGLAND) - revenging a road loss against opponent, off an upset loss as a road favorite are 90-44 ATS L/37 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on New England to cover

Philadelphia (4-9-1) looking good behind their rookie QB Hurts . He won his first career start before another solid showing by the rookie in a 33-26 loss to Arizona pushed the defending NFC East champion to the brink of elimination.Since 2017 when they won the Super Bowl, the Eagles are 11-2 in games they must win or they'd be eliminated from the playoffs or mathematically knocked out of contention. rinse and repeat with Hurts top tier QB effort to be the difference maker vs Dalton and a Cowboys team that is extremely inconsistent. 

NFL Underdogs or pick (DALLAS) - after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games, versus division opponents are 9-36 ats L/5 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHILADELPHIA) - off a road loss, with a losing record are 18-41 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Philadelphia to cover