The Philadelphia Eagles  are now desperate to stop a three-game losing streak  vs a  quarterback in Eli Manning that  hasn't played in three months and hasn't defeated them in three years.Manning is 10-20 SU against Philadelphia in his career and the Eagles have now won 9 of the  L/10 meetings overall, and are 8-1 ATS L/9 on Mondays at home vs division opposition. The Eagles are not only in need of  a win here but they are in redemption mode for a embarrassing  37-31 loss to Miami last time out, despite of previously  holding opponents to 17 points or less in four straight games and allowing fewer than 225 yards passing in five consecutive games. Falling asleep at the proverbial wheel vs a side that they should have handily beaten was almost unforgivable and the entire Eagles team should be motivated in this national spot light affair. 

Play on the Philadelphia Eagles to cover 

The Seahawks  are off. s hard fought win vs Minnesota this past Monday night and are currently the No. 2 overall seed in the NFC .and garnering alot public support thanks to recency bias   Meanwhile, the LA Rams look to now awoken from their mid season slumber behind the reenergized QB Jared Goff who  threw for 424 yards in last week’s 34-7 beat down at Arizona in which the Rams tough D held the Cardinals to a season-low 198 yards of offense.  I know the Rams have not looked particularly consistent this season but the numbers tell a different story as they  have won the stats battles in 10 of their L/12 games this season.  When these lines opened over the summer   the books posted the Rams as 7.5 point chalk, and now with the line divergence this big their is obvious value with the Rams here playing at home vs a Seattle side that will have issues bringing the same energy to this game as they did vs the Vikings last week. 

 LA RAMS are 6-0 ATS  after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Road favorites (SEATTLE) - good rushing team - averaging 130 or more rushing yards/game, after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards last game are 82-135 ATS L/36 seasons for a long term go against 62% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Rams to cover

Tennessee took part in a hard fought affair last week against Indianapolis which resulted in a  away win thanks to a great forth quarter . However, the Titans are being a little over rated because of recency bias,  as is evident by having lost 8 of 12 stats battles  and have  given  up season- high yards in two of its last three games . With that said, Tennessee looks vulnerable here in what looks a classic letdown situation on the road.  Which coincindently their second straight road game and never an easy situation for any NFL team . I know the Raiders after 3 straight wins have looked bad in two straight losses , but they are better team than those down efforts and Im betting on a bounce back work order today vs a over rated side.

Tennessee  as a non-division favorite of more than 2 points, are  0-10-1 ATS l/11 against opponents  coming off a loss.

NFL  team (OAKLAND) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games are 34-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rates.

Play on Oakland to cover 

The Chargers and the Jaguars are both having seasons to forget, and both enter this game desperate for a win. The Chargers are off a loss to the Denver Broncos and  the Jags are off a ugly DD loss to the TB Bucs by a 28-11 count. Free agent  QB Nick Foles just can't get it done, for the Jags, and young QB Minshew is expected to start. It must be noted that the Jags incumbent QB is  4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in his NFL career against opponents  coming off a loss like the Bolts. My projections estimate that Jacksonville plays better with their young gun under center and have more flow to their games, and with hom expected to start there is value taking points. 

The Chargers are 2-7-1 ATS L/10 as a favorite.

NFL Favorites (LA CHARGERS) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing 1 or less turnovers/game, after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 9-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (JACKSONVILLE) - average rushing team (95-125 RY/game) against a team with an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/G), after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game are 47-20 L/36 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Jacksonville Jaguars to cover 

Its Jimmy G vs Drew Bree's this Sunday in the Bayou. I know the public loves the 49ers a team that moved into the upper echelons of the NFL, but  the Saints have thrived in this spot in the past and are 13-1 SU and 14-0 ATS L/14 record at home versus .800- plus opposition. My own projections make the Saints the superior side as hosts and they get my support in this spot. 

NFL Home teams  (NEW ORLEANS) - off 3 straight wins against division rivals, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 27-1 SU L/ 36 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +13.3 ppg. 

NFL Favorites (NEW ORLEANS) - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games are 29-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate.

Play on New Orleans Saints to cover 

 Indianapolis is off a 31-17 loss to the Titans last week which most believe will have them in a letdown spot this Sunday, but Im betting on the opposite reaction via a tough as nails group that will want redemption immediately.  Note:  The Colts are 14-0 ATS  L/14 when they are off a double-digit ATS loss and they are facing a non-divisional opponent that has forced an average of fewer than five turnovers per game like the Buccaneers. The recency bias of Buccaneers win vs Jacksonville last week, and the Colts loss has a bad line attached to this tilt. In my betting opinion this inconsistent Buccaneers team is being over rated in a big way. 
  
 The  Bucaneers  are 0-16 ATS when they are not a FG-plus dog and they are off a win as a favorite in which they never trailed and converted four-plus third downs.  

INDIANAPOLIS is 10-2 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more yards/game over the last 3 seasons

TAMPA BAY is 4-14 L/18  ATS against AFC South division opponents .

The Colts are 6-1 SU L/7 overall in this series and 3-1 SUL/4 visits to TB. 

NFL Home favorites (TAMPA BAY) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% in the second half of the season are 8-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against  78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Indianapolis Colts to cover 

AMERICAN CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

The Tigers closed -14   against Cincinnati in their meeting last week, and despite of not covering looked like the far superior side. Now on a single digit line their is value with the favorite in the rematch. I know quarterback Desmond Ridder is back for the Bearcats but he was highly erratic in recent starts and is still dealing with a shoulder injury that is less than 100% healed. I must also be noted that Cincinnati has lost the stats battles in 8 of their 12 games this season , including 1-7 ITS the last eight overall tilts and over rated in my humble opinion at this juncture of the season. Note: MEMPHIS is 10-2 ATS L/12 in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Memphis to cover 

 When these teams met earlier this season in Waco the Bears built a  28-3 lead against the Sooners, but blew that lead as the Sooners woke up and won 34-31. Now in this championship game Oklahoma will be fully focused and be ready for this tilt and will be prepared for a fast start and keep the pedal to the proverbial metal from start to finish. The Sooners football program owns a 9-1 record and 8-2 ATS mark in big 12 championship games.The  favorite is 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS the last nine tilts  in this event. Also recently the Sooners are 11-2 ATS  as single-digit chalk.  The Sooners also have the motivation of getting the final and 4th spot in the college football play off, but their victory has to be convincing to beat out a impressive Utah side and will be merciless here if up.

CFB team (BAYLOR) - after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, a top-level team (80% or more ) playing a team with a winning record are 37-78 ATS L/5 seasons for go against 68% conversion rate.

Play on Oklahoma Sooners to cover 

 Billy Napier, UL Lafayette is a highly under rated team and from a bettors perspective an ATN machine cashing   18 of 25 times for a 72 % conversion rate for bettors. I know App State is nationally ranked side, but when these teams played earlier this season the Cajuns stayed with them almost every step of the way and the 17-7 ,  10 point margin of victory for the Mountaineers was a little misleading. Since that above mentioned loss to App State , the Cajuns have reeled off 6 straight wins and must not be underestimated in their ability to cash a ticket for us today on what is now a bloated line according to my projections. 

LA LAFAYETTE is 10-1 ATS  after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games which was the case last time out vs UL Monroe. 

APPALACHIAN ST is 4-14 ATS in home games after playing 2 straight conference games.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (LA LAFAYETTE) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG), after gaining 475 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 31-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on UL Lafayette to cover 

Dallas is. strange team, as they are only 6-6 on the season, but rank high in both offence and defensive numbers, and have out-gained all their opponents but one this season. This team just does not know how to win consistently and can't be trusted to come out here and perform at a high level as road chalk vs a Bears team finally starting to up trend with 3 wins in their L/4 games. Value resides with the home dog. 

Cowboys are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 Thursday games.Cowboys are 5-12-2 ATS in their last 19 games in Week 14.

Garrett is 8-18 ATS  versus poor rushing teams - averaging 90 or less rushing yards/game as the coach of DALLAS.

Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in December.

NFL Favorites (DALLAS) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing 1 or less turnovers/game, after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 9-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Chicago Bears to cover 

Scoring has been a big an issue for New England of late, and I personally believe Tom Brady is starting to show regression with age as his 79.3 passer rating over the last 3 games gives testament to. Yes, the D, remains solid and the future HOF has as usual given the Pats just enough omph to get them Ws, However, tonight against young gun QB Deshaun Watson who is  10-4-1 ATS overall as a dog, including 8-2 ATS as a dog of more then 2 points  in his career , the Pats are in trouble.  

NFL Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW ENGLAND) - quick starting offensive team - scoring 14+ PPG in the first half, after allowing 14 points or less last game are 9-31 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW ENGLAND) - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games are 7-27 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Texans to cover

Two struggling teams go head to head here this week in the Mile High City.  With Father Time taking its toll on  QB Philip Rivers  the Chargers are no longer an optimal force and are getting to much respect here.Note: Rivers has thrown seven interceptions in his last two games, the worst slump of his 16-year career.

I know the Chargers are off a bye week but this has not been a recipe for success for them in a while as they are  1-8 ATS  L/9 with rest.   This is a bet against the Chargers and not really a bet for the Broncos. However, from a mathematical standpoint this is value line for a desperate home dog. Advantage Denver.

Play on Denver to cover 

The Rams were blasted by the Baltimore Ravens last Monday night and will come into this game against the Cardinals feeling downtrodden. Im sure the natural inclination of most bettors would be to back the Rams after that ugly effort but the Cardinals are no pushovers and just wont lie down and die . Take the points. 

LA RAMS are 5-17 ATS L/22  after being outgained by 200 or more total yds in their previous game.

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA RAMS) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning record on the season are 9-32 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Cardinals to cover 

The Titans  lost a  19-17 home game to the Colts during the 2nd week of the season.  This return matchup  has big time play off implications attached to it for both clubs as they currently rank No. 8 (Indianapolis) and No.9 (Tennessee) in  playoff seeding. This will of course be a hard fought game, but Indianapolis has better overall numbers and are playing at home . The Colts have also owned this series covering 6 of the L/7 overall meetings.

INDIANAPOLIS is 8-1 ATS  when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.INDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons. 

TENNESSEE is 12-31 ATS revenging a home loss against opponent since 1992.

NFL Home favorites vs. the money line (INDIANAPOLIS) - off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival, with a winning record in the second half of the season are 26-2 L/10 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at  +10.2 ppg.

Play on the Indianapolis Colts to cover

 Cincinnati  QB Andy Dalton  is expected to start for the Bengals this Sunday which will boost their chances at a cover and possible outright win vs a over rated NY Jets team that is getting to much respect  thanks to a recency bias based on a 3 game win streak .  It must be noted that NFL winless sides like Cincinnati  have covered 14 of 19 ATS during the second half of the season dating back 37 seasons when facing opposition coming off consecutive SUATS wins. Also Cincinnati QB Andy Dalton   as a non-division underdog is  7-1 ATS against AFC East opposition  coming off a victory, including 5-0 SUATS at home. Daltons is also  20-10-1 ATS in December in his NFL career, including 11-6 SU and 13-4 ATS versus non-AFC North opponents. 

NY JETS are 4-13 ATS L/17 in road games after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread. 

NY JETS are 0-6 ATS in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 2 seasons.

 NFL team (CINCINNATI) - in a game involving two poor defensive teams (23-27 PPG) in the 2nd half of the season, after scoring 14 points or less in 2 straight games are 18-42 ATS L/37 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Cincinnati Bengals to cover 

 Last weeks loss by  Philly to Seattle was nasty and the entire Eagles nation felt embarrassed as they lost 17-9 at home in inclement weather .  Quarterback Carson Wentz continued his upside down circus act by  being intercepted twice  and  tripping all over the place while giving up  two fumbles . It hard to want to back the Eagles after that disgraceful effort, but this team still has pride, and need redemption quickly if Pederson hopes to retain his  HC.job. Im betting on the Eagles coming out here and beating up on a Dolphins team that is still in tank mode. 

The Fins defense  is ranked 31st against the run (148.2 yards per game), 31st overall (400.9) and last in points allowed per game (31.5).

The  Eagles are 13-1 SU and 14-0 ATS away after scoring 10 or fewer points in its last game.  

Play on Philadelphia to cover 

UCLA was up-trending until a recent two game road trip settled their season, and bowl chances as they were hammered by USC and Utah in back to back tilts. It must be noted UCLA is 8-19 ATS  after a 2 game road trip since 1992. Now downtrodden and emotionally let down Im betting they dont have much left in the tank to take on a tough California Bears team, that now has their strong signal caller Chase Gerber  back under center. With California needing a win for a Bowl appearance and revenge on their minds for a loss last season to the Bruins as 7 points favs, Im betting a strong motivated  California performance. UCLA is 0-5-1 ATS L/6 final home games. 

Play on California to cover 

Nevada is off a big upset win vs Fresno State on the road last week and have won 3 straight, and now have momentum coming home on senior day vs instate rivals UNLV. The Pack will be primed and motivated to also take the Fremont Cannon. The Wolf Pack have won four of its five games in Mackay Stadium this season,   including a win vs Big 10 opponent  Purdue by a  34-31, count, and a very viable team to back here this Saturday. 

CFB  home team vs. the money line (NEVADA) - off 3 straight wins against conference rivals against opponent off an upset win as a home underdog are 33-1 L/27 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +25 ppg. 

Nevada to cover 

Rice has won 2 straight games entering this tilt, and have momentum and confidence on their sides. I know Rice struggled for most of the season, but during their campaign they have shown flashes of brilliance and were up-trending in my power rankings and deserve their road favrote status here today. UTEP is 2-9 ATS  in home games over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at -13.6 ppg. 

CFB Road favorites  (RICE) - after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after allowing 6.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 37-1  L/5 seasons and 15-0 SU this season with the average ppg diff clicking in at +23.2 ppg, 

Play on Rice to cover 

New Mexico State is a team that has not won on the road yet this season, and have been outscored by a 123-48 count in their L/3 away tilts. Today  Im betting they get clobbered again vs an explosive up-trending Liberty football program putting more than 35 ppg on the board this season. Note: NM St has allowed more than 40 ppg on average. 

NEW MEXICO ST is 4-15 ATS as an underdog over the last 2 seasons and is 2-10 ATS  as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons. with the average ppg diff clicking in at -29.5 ppg.

CFB Road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (NEW MEXICO ST) - an average offensive team (21 to 28 PPG) against a good offensive team (28-34 PPG), after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 34-10 L/27 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Liberty to cover 

Since losing  QB Sean Chambers for the season, the Cowboys justdont have much offensive flow they need to be competitive .  Their D, remains stout, but against a team like Air Force that can put points on the board against the best of Ds. their in trouble. 

Calhoun is 7-0 ATS  in home games versus good rushing defenses - allowing 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry as the coach of AIR FORCE. 

CFB Home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (AIR FORCE) - good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG) against a team with an average defense (330 to 390 YPG), after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 28-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Air Force to cover  

Michigan finally looks prepared to move forward and get a win vs unbeaten Ohio State  this week as underdogs behind the arm of Shea Patterson and a defence that is playing its best football of the season. I know the Buckeyes have won 7 straight meetings in this series, but after watching Michigan play some amazing football of late, including last weeks DD blowout of Indiana  Michigan looks  very capable. Last year Ohio State humiliated , the Wolverines in a 62-39 smash down and now revenge is also in play.  Note: The under dog  is 5-1 ATS  last 6 meetings, and HC  Jim Harbaugh is 5-0-1 ATS as a Big Ten circuit getting points at home  of more than 5 points, and has cashed  in 5 of his L/6 with conference revenge.It must also noted that  undefeated road chalk in their final game of the campaign has won just 5 of 16 tilts  SU and are just  3-13 ATS when facing .700 or greater opposition. 

MICHIGAN is 6-0 ATS  in home games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 3 seasons.

CFB  Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MICHIGAN) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP), after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 38-15 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Michigan to cover

Lovie Smith has done a fine job with Illinois , but with his top QB Brandon Peters injured or less than 100% which put the team at a disadvantage. Peters started 10 of the 11 games. Look for Northwestern dominating front 7 to the work needed to slow Illinois and for us to get the cover .

NORTHWESTERN is 22-10 ATS L/32 in road games vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game.

ILLINOIS is 1-9 ATS in a home game where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points. Northwestern has won 4 straight meetings, and have owned the Land of Lincoln trophy and wont relinquish it without a fight.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NORTHWESTERN) - in a game involving two average rushing teams (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) after 7+ games are 57-31 ATS L/10 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Northwestern to cover

The battle of I-4 goes this Friday between instate rivals UCF and USF. Charlie Strongs Bulls wont be going Bowling this season,so this esentially is their big game of the campaign, and Im betting they will muster a way to stay competetive and get the cover against a a good but defensively challenged Knights side that allows more than 28 ppg. 

S FLORIDA is 18-6 ATS L/24  in road games vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game.S FLORIDA is 16-4 ATS L/20  after trailing in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half.Strong is 22-5 ATS  in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses in all games he has coached since 1992.

CFB Road underdogs of 21.5 or more points (S FLORIDA) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 102 -57 L/27 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on South Florida to cover

Troy looked horrendous last week, in a 53-3 loss vs UL Lafayette on the road and was most probably in a look ahead situation knowing App State was up next and also regressing after some record setting offensive performances. This Friday however, Im looking on a giant bounce back effort, behind the arm of .QB Kaleb Barker  who was held without a touchdown pass for the first time this season in the Louisiana game.

I know Cincinnati has not looked its best over the last couple of weeks, especially on offence, but their D is of the top tier variety nationally and are hard to beat, even when taking on an explosive offence like Memphis that  ranks Top 10 nationally in points (42.2) and yards per game (488.2). This Cincinnati team has won 9 straight SU, with their only loss coming against Ohio State , and must not be underestimated as DDs here in Memphis today. 

CINCINNATI is 16-4 ATS in road games after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games.

MEMPHIS is 0-7 ATS off 2 consecutive road wins.

CFB Road underdogs (CINCINNATI) - after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread, in a game involving two top-level teams (80%or more ) are 29-7 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. 

Play on Cincinnati to cover 

Iowa earned a 31-28 win over the Cornhuskers last year in Iowa City and Im betting on another closely contested affair here that will see me back Nebraska getting points at home. Because this game comes on a Friday,  and both sides having only had 6 days to prepare , this is a a situation that  favors the home side. 

This tilt is of ultra importance to this Nebraska football program as a win here would get them a bowl game, and give credence to HC Frosts  tenure and his teams progression upwards in the Big 10. Everything will be left on the field today in Lincoln by the Cornhuskers. 

Play on Nebraska to cover 

 Missouri has lost five in a row while losing the stats wars n all 5 tilts  and needs a win to get a lower tier  Bowl appearance.  They have shown little motivation recently and I doubt we will see them put together some pride here . Meanwhile, Arkansas are not much better at  just 2-9 SU on the season, but, from a long term betting perspective are 18-8 ATS as conference home dogs of  17 or less points. Last year Missouri clobbered the Razorbacks by a 38-0 count so Im betting on revenge and redemption to go hand and hand here with a strong effort from Hogs  here tonight in Little Rock. 

Play on Arkansas to cover 

Kent State has fought hard to make it to a point in the season where they can  get a bowl appearance with a win today thanks some surprising wins . But it must be noted that Kent States football program has not travelled well of late losing 19 of their L/21 away from home.  Its been a real uphil battle for the Flashes, and Im betting they are most probably out of gas, and very much vulnerable to getting steamrolled vs a team ready to notch their 4th straight home coming event and a 7win season that will buoy them to a possible Bowl invite. E MICHIGAN is 6-0 ATS vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less yards per return over the last 2 seasons. 

CFB Home favorites  (E MICHIGAN) - after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 39-2 L/10 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +18 ppg. 

CFB team (KENT ST) - good rushing team (4.3 to 4.8 YPR) against an average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR), after allowing 225 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games are 9-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on E.Michigan to cover 

The Ole Miss Rebels have revenge on board for last seasons Nasty and merciless 35-3 beatdown at the hands of Mississippi State and have had this revenge scenario circled on their calendars for a long time now. It must be noted that the Rebs  are 13-4 SU / ATS when playing with revenge in this series, and Im betting they cover again and also look lie viable SU winner here as well. 

CFB Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MISSISSIPPI ST) - after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game against opponent after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 7-29 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Ole Miss to cover

A few weeks ago when these teams played the Bears squeaked by the Lions by a 20-13 score, now in revenge mode on their own home field Im betting on the Lions once again being competitive and getting us the cover . Yes,  I know Detroit lost a  19-16 decision on the road to the Washington Redskins, who came into the game an NFL-worst 1-9, but here at home they have an advantage vs a Bears side that is highly inconsistent. Once again , I also know the Bears have won 2 of their L/3, but who did those victories  come against .....the banged up Lions, and a 2-9 NY Giants team. Chicago is far from being a 3 point road favorite against anyone in this league, not even the slumping Lions. The the four other teams the Bears  beat this season are a combined 10-33-1. Call me crazy but Ill take the Lions on Turkey day to cover. 

CHICAGO is 1-8 ATS  in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 3 seasons. CHICAGO is 4-16 ATS  in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6 or more  yards/play in the second half of the season. CHICAGO is 8-22 ATS L/30 in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. in the second half of the season.

NFL Home teams (DETROIT) - revenging a road loss against opponent, off an upset loss as a road favorite are 86-43 ATS L/36 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Detroit to cover 

The public and their dogs are all over the red hot Baltimore Ravens, but the LA Rams are no pushovers and must be respected as home pups. Note: The Rams have out yarded all their opponents expect one this season. Baltimore has outscored their oppositon  127-40 in the last three games behind the legs and arm of LeMar Jackson, and now becasue of  recency bias we have value with the home side getting points. 
 

BALTIMORE is 6-17 ATS L/23 in road games after a win by 21 or more points. 

NFL Road favorites (BALTIMORE) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after a win by 10 or more points are 18-53 ATS L/10seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Rams to cover 

Both these teams are coming off victories against sub par teams. Oakland defeated the Cincinnati Bengals 17-10. New York smashed the Washington Redskins 34-17.

The Jets are now up trending in my power rankings and   are  coming off back-to-back wins and are now 3-0 ITS in their last three tilts overall and deserve our respect here as home dogs. With QB Darnold  in a flow of late a big day Im betting is at hand vs a . Raiders  side that are 21st in scoring defense and 25th in opponents’ yards per play.  I know the Jets dont inspire bettors, but in their current form I like their chances to cover vs a Raiders team that despite of some good outings are getting way to much love from the linesmakers here on a line that should be closer to a pickem.

 OAKLAND is 1-9 ATS  off a home win over the last 3 seasons.

Gruden is 3-19 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season in all games he has coached in his career.

OAKLAND is 11-27 ATS L/38 when playing against a lower tier  team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) in the second half of the season. 

NFL Road teams (OAKLAND) - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are just 264-374 ATS L/36 seasons for a go against 59% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NY Jets to cover 

 Philadelphia  enters this game downtrodden after blowing. a 10-0 lead and losing a  a  17-10 decision against New England last week . Carson Wentz the Eagles QB is down trending in my QB power rankings and from a visual standpoint is excruciating to watch under centre as he is currently not seeing the field well and wildly inaccurate when he thinks he ha a target. In the past when the Eagles  are coming off a  home loss  and than playing at home the week after, they are 1-10 SUATS the last eight campaigns    Meanwhile, Seattle is rested and off a bye week. and showing extreme confidence after back to back OT victories with the last one as a underdog.  It must be noted that the Seahawks  behind QB Russell Wilson. are  18-4-1 ATS as a dog when coming off a win. 

The  Seahawks  are 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS in their last ten away games vs NFC East . Seattle is 12-0 L/12 ATS as a regular season conference dog when coming off a SU/ATS win. 

SEATTLE is 10-2 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 3 seasons.

SEATTLE is 7-0 ATS in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.SEATTLE is 6-0 ATS  in road games after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.

Carroll is 25-8 ATS  in weeks 10 through 13 as the coach of SEATTLE.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (SEATTLE) - good offensive team - scoring 24 or more points/game, after a win by 3 or less points are 79-42 L/36 seasons for a long term 65% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Seattle to cover

According to my power rankings the Denver Broncos matchup well vs the Buffalo Bills. I know the Broncos (3-7) have their issues, particularly when it comes to fourth-quarter meltdowns. Denver has now blown four fourth-quarter leads, including last week's 27-23 loss at Minnesota, in which the Broncos became the first team in five years to squander a 20-point lead entering halftime. But what this team this Broncos team has been competitive and after last weeks embarrassing effort, Im looking for all hands on board this week, in a game where the team leaves everything on the field. Whether thats enough or not Im not sure, but what I do like is the number, and the Broncos ability to cover. 

BUFFALO is 12-27 ATS L/39 off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival ( Beat Miami last week by DDs)and have failed to cover 8 of their L/9 at home after playing the Fins. 

NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (DENVER) - after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, team with a losing record in the second half of the season are 37-12 ATS L/10 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road teams (DENVER) - mistake-free team (1.25 or less TO/G committed) vs a team with 1.25  or less TO/G forced after 8+ games, after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 30-9 ATS L/36 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Denver to cover 

Hawaii as a favorite vs this type of tough defence that San Diego State has is a go against situation for me. Whenever a top tier offence  like the Warriors  goes up against a top tier D like the Aztecs, Im almost always taking the defence as long as the math behind the play makes sense.Hawaii is 2-15-1 ATS in its last eighteen games as a favorite and  is  4-18-1 ATS, 1-11 ATS at home, and 3-15 SU against San Diego State over the last 23 head to head meetings which is not s good omen for a Hawaii team that upset Rocky Longs side in his last game of the season last year.  Now with revenge on board  I look for the Aztecs to be fully awake and ready for payback on paradise island this Saturday night. Note: Hawaiis HC Nick Rolovich is 0-9-1 ATS L/10 as a home favourite. 

Play on San Diego State to cover 

Utah State QB  junior Jordan Love,  departed last Saturday's victory over Wyoming with an undisclosed injury and rumors are he wont start today, which significantly gives Boise State an edge here on the road tonight. Meanwhile, the status , Bosie State QBs looks more positive as as capable second-stringer Chase Cord (670 yards, nine touchdowns, three interceptions) is listed as probable .

Harsin is 8-0 ATS in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better in all games he has coached since 1992.

CFBFavorites of 3.5 to 10 points (BOISE ST) - excellent offensive team (440  or more YPG) against a poor defense (390 to 440 YPG) after 7+ games, after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 37-9 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Boise State to cover 

The Sooners have pounded TCU the last 3 times they have met them by scores of 52-27, 41-17, and 38-20 and Im betting on a repeat performance here this Saturday. The one game that the Frogs looked bad in this year was against Iowa State losing a 49-27 beat down, and this is another bad matchup for TCU according to my power rankings .  

OKLAHOMA is 6-0 ATS  in home games off 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking at +39.4 ppg. 

TCU is 2-10 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons.

CFB Home favorites  (OKLAHOMA) - after gaining 450 or more total yards in 4 consecutive games against opponent after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 27-1 SU L/5 seasons for a 97% conversion rate with the average ppg diff of +20 going on the board. 

Play on Oklahoma to cover 

Temples last two losses have come to UCF and SMU both by DD deficits and my own personal opinion is that they are over rated. Now they go against a team that is every bit as good as those two teams and maybe even better from a all around perspective. With that said, Im betting on the Bearcats to proverbially eat the Owls alive here and take this tilt in convincing fashion, much to a chagrin of a public that believes Temple is an elite team. I know Temple has won the last two meetings in this series SU, in 2017, and 2018 but those incarnations of those football programs are vastly different than this version of each team. Add to that a revenge scenario and the Bearcats look like solid choices at anything under -10 points. 

CFB home team (CINCINNATI) - off 3 straight wins against conference rivals against opponent off an upset win as a home underdog are 32-1 SU L/27 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +24.7 ppg.

Play on the Cincinnati to cover 

 Florida Atlantic has won 4 straight ATS/SU on the road behind an explosive offence and enter into this game looking to finsih strong and are still in the fight for the Conference USA East title .With tha said, Im betitng the Owls  will be primed to perform here this week vs a UTSA side with not enough fire power to compete or even give their supporters a back door cover.
 HC  Owlsley  is 3-1-1 ATS all-time as double-digit road favorite.  .

Play on FAU to cover 

 TROY is heating up and off huge back to back wins behind the arm of QB Kaleb Barker who has passed  for nearly 700 yards and 9 TDs vs Georgia Southern and Texas State . Troy is now  5-5 on the season, and need one win to get a Bowl game and will leave everything on the field  again this week vs UL Lafayette side that allowed S.Alabama to roll over them last week for 458 yards.  The Trojans have covered in five of the last six road tilts in this series  and get my support again taking points in a key game for them. 

Play on Troy to cover

Quarterback Ian Book etched his name into the Notre Dame annals last week, setting a school record with his third game of the season with at least five touchdown passes and Im betting he keeps trucking along this week vs a inconsistent Boston College secondary in what Im betting will be a big DD victory for the Catholic boys. I know Boston College is off a rest week, but that still wont save them vs a side ready to celebrate a senior day victory. 

NOTRE DAME is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less yards per return over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff registering at +24.8. 

CFB home team  (NOTRE DAME) - a top caliber team (14 or more  PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 5 PPG diff.) after 7 or more games, after scoring 50 points or more last game are 27-1 L/27 seasons for a 97% conversion rate for bettors with ppg diff clicking  in a +24.7. 

Play on Notre Dame to cover 

The GT Yellow Jackets have opened as a small favorite in this matchup despite of some of their inadequacies . They had played 3 tough games, against Duke, Pittsburgh, and Miami, and than beatenn and battered were clobbered by VTech 45-0  last time out. Now its bounce back time for the  under rated Ramblin reck.  It must be noted that the NC State Wolfpack have  lost all four of their road games this season by an average of 22.5 PPG . It's become obvious that the Wolfpack  seem ill prepared to play their opposition away from home and are fade material here in this spot vs a side that needs redemption badly. 

NC STATE is 0-6 ATS vs. poor ball control teams, 28 or less possession minutes/game over the last 3 seasons.NC STATE is 0-6 ATS  as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

NC STATE is 0-8 ATS L/8 after 5 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnover.

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NC STATE) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing 1 or less turnovers/game, after 4 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 8-27 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on GTech to cover 

The Bobcats hopes for a MAC title or anything even close to that ranking  were  put to end over the last couple of  weeks thanks  in part to a porous defence. Now they are being made 21 point chalk. The line is viable, but the Bobcats motivational stimulus is not there , which makes taking the points a investment option.OHIO U is 0-7 ATS   as a favorite this season.OHIO U is 9-21 ATS  in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992. I know Bowling Green does not inspire most bettors, but they have shown flashes of life of late with wins vs Toledo and Akron of late. 

Bobcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games.Bobcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.Bobcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in November.Bobcats are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.Bobcats are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games.Bobcats are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.Bobcats are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.Bobcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.Bobcats are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.Bobcats are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.

Bobcats are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Bowling Green.Bobcats are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 meetings.

Play on Bowling Green to cover 

There looks to me to be big trouble ahead for the Rams this Sunday after  they lost their starting center and a starting OL to injury in the Steelers’ game last week a 17-12 loss. With  QB Jared Goff looking like he has  lost his flow recently facing  Khalil Mack and the nasty Bears’ defensive line this week without key starters will be. a miserable task. Advantage Bears taking points. 

Rams have failed to cover 5 of their L/6 Sunday nighters. 

Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LA RAMS) - after going under the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 8-28 ATS L/36 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

CHICAGO is 9-2 ATS in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.CHICAGO is 53-26 ATS  after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games.

Play on the Chicago Bears to cover 

New England before their bye week showed some chinks in their armour by getting blown out by the  Baltimore Ravens. Now the public believes that the mighty Pats will bounce back and impose their will on the Eagles via the arm of NFL senior citizen Tom Brady. Personally Im one of these guys, that believes Father Time is Undefeated and that the future HOF QB Tom Brady will soon begin to regress as will his team. I also believe this line offers value on a what my power ranking suggest is an up trending Eagles side on  two game win streak. Note: The Eagles are 14-1 SU L/15, including 5-0 ATS as a dog with rest in non-division games.

PHILADELPHIA is 9-1 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  75% or better ) over the last 3 seasons. PHILADELPHIA is 16-4 ATS vs. top tier offensive teams - scoring 29 or more points/game in the second half of the season. Pederson is 11-2 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread as the coach of PHILADELPHIA.

NFL Home teams (PHILADELPHIA) - a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team in the second half of the season are long term profitable side propositions going 187-121 ATS L/36 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Philadelphia Eagles to cover 

QB Drew Brees was sacked six times in a loss at home loss to the Atlanta Falcons. Im now sure the pundits and obviously the lines-makers believe the mighty Saints will now bounce back and cover a 6 point road spread here in Tampa Bay. However, Im not sold on the Saints in this spot, and have noticed the franchise is just 14-27-2 ATS as a favorite in games when coming off a home loss and Payton is 2-9 ATS off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite as the coach of NEW ORLEANS. It must also be noted that TB has revenge on board for a 31-24 loss they suffered to the Saints on he road  earlier this season. TAMPA BAY is 18-7 ATS L/25 in home games revenging a  loss where opponent scored 28 or more points. Also From a league wide trends perspective :

NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TAMPA BAY) - revenging a same season loss against opponent, off a home win are 37-14 ATS L/10 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. (TB beat Arizona last week at home by a 30-27 count)

Arians is 12-2 ATS  as a home underdog of 7 points or less in all games he has coached in his career. 

Play on the Tampa Bay Bucs to cover 

 A battle between two NFL bottom feeders who are in last place in their respective NFL divisions. go head to head this Sunday.   I know there is recency bias here as the Jets are off a win vs Giants last time out and the Skins just continue to struggle. However, having a bye week will give their young  QB Dwayne Haskins  some more time to get acclimated under center and to use the offence in the best way possible to get positive results.   With that said, Im betting on the Skins here , and fading the a Jets side that  are improbable back to back winners  and just 1-9 SU and 0-9-1 ATS L/10 against opposition off a bye week and 2-9 ATS in back to back NFC tilts. 

Play on the Washington Redskins to cover 

LSU after a monumental win vs Alabama last week, will now find themselves in an emotional letdown spot vs a Mississippi program, that needs two wins before the reg season ends to become Bowl eligible. After a week of celebrating the Tigers hangover is real, and mustering the energy to play at 100% will be nearly impossible if improbable which opens up the door for a motivated home dog that has cashed in  4 of their L/5 at home vs .850 or better opposition to get us the cover. Note: Underdogs who win matchups of 6-0 or better teams  are 0-6 ATS in the followup as favorites of 21 or less points since 1980. 

 LSU is 2-10 ATS L/12 off an upset win as a road underdog.

CFB team (OLE MISS) - excellent rushing team (4.8 or more YPR) against a good rushing team (4.3 to 4.8 YPR), after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game are 92-38 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Ole Miss to cover

The under achieving Cardinals lost in Colorado in their last game 16-13. But its important to note Stanfords coach Shaw  in his career has been  a bounce back specialist to the extreme, as his team when coming off a SU favorite loss, are 16-1 SU and 15-2 ATS , including 15-0 ATS the last fifteen tilts .  With Stanford  getting double digits on the road Saturday we have a value side to bet into vs a Washington State side, that despite of owning a top tier offence, also have a horrendous D and because of this , sit at the bottom of the PAC 12 North. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings and Im betting will get the cheese again.

STANFORD is 23-9 ATS  in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 450 or more  yards/game .

STANFORD is 7-3 straight up against WASHINGTON ST since 1992.

CFB team (WASHINGTON ST) - excellent offensive team (6.2  or more YPP) against a team with a struggling defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP), after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play 2 consecutive games are 8-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB team (WASHINGTON ST) - excellent offensive team (440 or more YPG) against an average offensive team (330-390 YPG) after 7+ games, after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games are 13-41 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Stanford to cover 

Minnesota has surprised alot of pundits this season, and are now 9-0 on the season after beating a very good Penn State team last week. The Gophers were sky higher for that game, and left everything on the field and now a natural regression and emotional let down situation  is at hand here in Iowa this Saturday. Note: College Football 8-0 or better away teams off a double-digit ATS win as an underdog are 0-6 ATS dating back 37 seasons.

IOWA is 20-7 ATS L/27 vs. explosive offensive teams - scoring 37 or more points/game.

OWA is 11-1 straight up against MINNESOTA since 1992.

CFB team (MINNESOTA) - after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, a top-level team ( 80% or more ) playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 17-43 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Iowa to cover 

HC Nick Rolovich,  of Hawaii is 1-12-1 ATS as a favourite in his tenure with the  Paradise Island football program and is once again laying points here on the road at UNLV.  I know the Rebels may not inspire bettors but they did upset SEC opponent Vanderbilt earlier this season, and on occasion have shown flashes of brilliance , so they truly are not as bad some think, just very inconsistent .  Meanwhile, HC Sanchez has seen his Sin City team cash at a 4-0-1 ATS rate in the last 5 meetings. I know the Warriors can really do some offensive damage , but as good as their attack is their defence is equally horrendous and have allowed an average  510 YPG over the last five tilts, and ripe to take on more punishment here against a team desperate for positive results. 

Play on UNLV to cover 

Auburn is  being under rated here vs what my projections are currently telling me is  a slightly over rated Georgia Buldogs team that had numerous injuries last week in their game against Missouri. The Tigers have been strong at home this season with a 4-0 record, and lost by just 3 points to new SEC power house LSU and deserve out respect here as home dogs. 

AUBURN is 11-1 ATS  in home games vs. incredible defensive teams who give up 12 or less points/game and is15-1 ATS in home games vs. very good defensive teams who give up 14 or less points/game.

Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn is 10-0 SU with rest in conference games in his career, as well as 8-0 SU off a bye versus unrested opponents.

Play on Auburn to cover 

Alabama is off a disheartening loss to LSU at home last week,  which will have the Crimson Tide in an emotional letdown situation, as DD road chalk, which has me backing the home dog in this spot.

ALABAMA is 1-8 ATS versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25 or more  rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons.

Saban is 4-12 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses as the coach of ALABAMA.

MISSISSIPPI ST is 13-4 ATS in home games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons

Crimson Tide are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 conference games.Crimson Tide are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.Crimson Tide are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.Crimson Tide are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.Crimson Tide are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.

Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November.Bulldogs are 24-7 ATS in their last 31 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Bulldogs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games.Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.

Home team is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings.

CFB home team (MISSISSIPPI ST) - good rushing team (190-230 RY/game) against an average rushing team (140-190 RY/game) after 7+ games, after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game are 80-38 ATS L/26 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Mississippi State to cover 

San Diego State is off a ugly loss toNevada last week. Rocky Long in my opinion has one his very few sub par teams, even though the pundits would disagree with me. As usual the defence is staunch, but when you can only muster an average of  20.8 PPG (112th nationally) you have problems. Im betting on a talented Fresno State side to do some damage here this week via a run game that averages 5.3 ypc, and for the Aztecs to continue to struggle putting points on the board.

FRESNO ST is 8-0 ATS  against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. 

FRESNO ST is 12-3 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons and have cashed 13 of their L/17 ATS on the road.FRESNO ST is 10-1 ATS  in road games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

 DIEGO ST is 1-8 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 2 seasons. SAN DIEGO ST is 2-9 ATS in home lined games over the last 2 seasons. 

Play on Fresno State to cover 

I know LA Techs  Skip Holtz is known as  a cover machine, as an underdog and is on a 8 game win streak overall and obviously red hot, but Marshall is no push overs and the most physical team in the CUSA holding opponents to 3.8 ypc. This Thunder Hered team must be respected here as short faves as Marshall can clinch the East with a win tonight. 

CFB (LOUISIANA TECH) - after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, a top-level team (>= 80%) playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 17-43 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Marshall to cover 

The Steelers have shown their resiliency  by winning four games in a row and five of their past six, with back QBs in the lineup. However, this week , they 're main mode of moving the chains starting running back James Conner and rookie Benny Snell are banged up and less than 100% if they play. If  QB Mason Rudolph has to go the air more often , because of a lack of ground game he will bump into a up trending Cleveland secondary that must be respected. Meanwhile, I look for a Browns team coming into this with momentum after a late TD win last time out, to come right at the  Steelers run D that is ranked 16th in the league behind the legs of Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb and do extensive damage . 

Tomlin is 6-15 ATS  in road games after a win by 6 or less points as the coach of PITTSBURGH which was the case in 17-12 win vs the Rams last time out.Tomlin is 9-18 ATS in road games after having won 4 out of their last 5 games as the coach of PITTSBURGH.

NFL team (PITTSBURGH) - off an upset win as a home underdog, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season are 3-23 L/36 seasons for a go against 88% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Cleveland to cover 

 The Ohio University Bobcats  are 3-2 in the East Division of the MAC. and are not out of contention for their division as they enter this tilt against Western Michigan. However, to achieve their goal this is a must win situation vs a side Im betting they matchup well against especially here at home.

The Bobcats offense gets the job done , and while not spectacular are consistent averaging 29 points per game, which ranks 65th in the nation. Ohio averages 407 total yards per game, which ranks 67th in the nation. That includes 208 ypg in the air ( 89th in the nation,(  and 198 ypg on the ground (37th in the country). Defensively, the Bobcats allow 29 points per game, which is 78th in the nation.  

Western Michigan has averaged 36 ppg, and really rumble on the ground, but the same holds true for Ohio. I look for both sides to pound away with their ground games, but for Ohio to make a couple of more key stops on their own home field and to come out on top. Note: Western Michigan is 0-4 on the road this season, and are not performing at the same level they are at home.

Play on Ohio to cover 

Akron has shown zip this season, (excuse the pun) they have been horrendous and  have failed to win or even cover any of their first 9 games, thanks mostly to an undeniably bad offence. However, their defence is viable, and are only allowing 5.4 ypp, ranking in the top-60 nationally. Meanwhile, E.Michigan D, is not as good as Akrons, allowing  6.2 ypp and 4.8 yards per rush. On a night that is supposed to see bad weather in Akron, Im betting the Zips can run the ball down the throat of porous run D, and do enough damage offensively behind their only real offensive dual threat QB Kato Nelson, and get us the cover. Lets be brave here , and take the points.

E MICHIGAN is 10-22 ATS after allowing 37 points or more in 2 straight games.

Creighton is 2-9 ATS when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. 25% or less ) as the coach of E MICHIGAN.

CFB Road favorites (E MICHIGAN) - with a poor scoring defense - allowing 31 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games are 34-70 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Akron to cover 

 Ben Rothlisberger was forced to the sidelines earlier this season, with a nasty elbow injury  but the Steelers have found a way to jell behind  backups  Duck Hodges and Mason Rudolph and find themselves in a hunt for a play off spot .  It must also be noted that  Mike Tomlin is   9-2-3 ATS as a home pup, and also  10-5 SUATS against the NFC West, including 6-1 SUATS a home. Meanwhile, the Rams do not have a great history vs the AFC North going  1-8 SU and 1-7-1 ATS against .500 or better opposition .

Steelers  as  hosts when coming off a win and facing an opponent coming off consecutive wins like the Rams , are 11-0 SUATS versus non-division opposition.

NFLFavorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LA RAMS) - excellent offensive team (370 or better YPG) against a team with a poor defense (335 to 370 YPG) are 10-59 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LA RAMS) - after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite against opponent off a home win are 12-34 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LA RAMS) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 4 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 7-27 ATS L/36 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Pittsburgh Steelers to cover 

This looks like a complete mismatch because of the opposite trajectories each of these teams has taken this season. However, it must be noted that New Orleans as a DD home favorite vs division opponents at home  is just 3-12 ATS L/15  and 0-6 ATS versus sub .200 opponents. Meanwhile , the Falcons are 5-1 ATS l in their L/6 as  double-digit dogs, as well  and are 22-3 ATS in this series when they enter with a win percentage of .625 or less.With that said, lets  be brave, take the points on what my projections estimate is a mathematical advantage. 

NFL Road teams (ATLANTA) - excellent passing team (265 or more PY/G) against a poor passing defense (230-265 PY/G) after 8+ games, after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 25-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

NF LRoad underdogs or pick (ATLANTA) - after 6 or more consecutive losses, in weeks 10 through 13 are 36-13 ATS L/36 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Atlanta Falcons 

The hard luck Buccaneers are off back to back losses at Seattle and at Tennessee, respectively, the past two weeks both times in OT. If this was a college team , I would bet they would be emotionally drained, but pros are pros for a reason and they react to adversity a lot different than kids. With that said, Im betting on a top tier effort this week from the Bucs here at home vs a Arizona side travelling from west to east and off a hard fought 28-25 loss against the 49ers last week in prime time. Im betting the Cards are the ones with the emotional hangover , and not the Bucs. Note: Im sure HC Bruce Arians has had this game circled for a while against his old team, and will be well prepared. 

Cardinals are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Cardinals are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games in November.

Cardinals are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

Buccaneers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

NFL Road teams (ARIZONA) - off 1 or more straight overs against opponent off 6 or more consecutive overs are 5-25 ATS L/36 seasons for a 83% go against conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Favorites (TAMPA BAY) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games, after the first month of the season are 102-62 L/10 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tampa Bay to cover 

These are two teams that have polar opposite records, with the Bills registering a 6-2 record while the Browns are at 2-6. However, the truth is the Browns are a talented team with a QB with a big arm in Baker Mayfield are highly under rated .  Note: The Browns have played a much tougher schedule than the Bills, their six losses coming against teams that are a combined 35-17, including 8-0 San Francisco, 8-1 New England and 7-2 Seattle. Cleveland’s roster includes 10 starters who are first- or second-round draft picks, either by the Browns or other teams and despite of some big name media clowns on their sidelines(not going to mention names) they are a team that can get things done if pressured like they are right now in their current form making them dangerous and motivated opponents for the Bills this Sunday.Add to that the activation of running back Kareem Hunt from a 8 game suspension and we have ignitor fuel to bet into. 

  Buffalo is over rated , having played the weakest schedules to date, behind the flimsy arm of quarterback Josh Allen who owns the 28th ranked  passer rating and a defence that has had its run D exposed of late.The Bills’ six wins this season have come against opponents whose combined record is 9-42. Four wins have come vs. 0-8 Cincinnati, 1-8 Washington, 1-7 Miami and the 1-7 New York Jets.

The Bills are 0-15 ATS/SU L/15 on grass vs a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road.

BUFFALO is 9-21 ATS in road games after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games since 1992.

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEVELAND) - after 4 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed no turnovers are 45-15 ATS L/36 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Cleveland Browns to cover 

 This side investment option is based on a simple premise , that the Ravens after this huge prime time win vs the Patriots last Sunday night will be immensely hungover as they take on Cincinnati this week. Meanwhile, Cincinnati  rested and off a bye week and a new QB under center (Ryan Finely) is not as bad as their winless record would indicate, and have shown flashes of being very competitive. The Bengals lost 23-17 at Baltimore earlier this season, and will be primed to pull of an upset in the rematch and extend a positive 9-3 ATS run L/12 in this series. Note: Teams that have defeated a Super Bowl Champ in their L/game, are 7-25 SUATS in division contests going all the way back to 1980.   Also froma . team specific trend shows teams that beat the Patriots and then open as a 7+ point favorite  in their following tilt are 0-8 ATS dating back 16 seasons. 

Key injury update: Bengals A.J. Green is expected to make his season debut on Sunday. 

NFL Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CINCINNATI) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a struggling team (25%) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season are 67-26 ATS L/36 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Cincinnati to cover 

Two struggling teams the NY Jets and NY Giants co tenants of their facility will go head to head here this week, in a game I have pegged as a pickem , thus getting points with the underdog Jets is a value play. Taking the Jets is just the lesser of two evils, but from a mathematical standpoint a prudent decision in my opinion in a game that could easily be won with a late FG. 

NFL team (NY JETS) - after 5 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers are 64-28 L/36 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NY Jets to cover 

After getting upset by Kansas State two weeks ago, there has been alot of soul searching in Sooner land , and now well rested , Im expecting them to come out here and be fired up and ready to lay a beatdown on their visiting conference foes this week Iowa State. Note: Oklahoma is 26-11 ATS as conference home fav of 14 or fewer points, and 36-0 SU and 25-10 ATS during the regular season when coming off a loss since 1999. Oklahoma has not beat anybody of note other than Texas, and they need a big win here to prove their the real deal to the committee, and while the Hawkeyes are no pushovers, Im betting they do end up as sacrificial lambs this week in a bad situational spot. 

OKLAHOMA is 6-0 ATS in home games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better over the last 3 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +29.7 ppg.

CFB Home favorites (OKLAHOMA) - excellent offensive team (440  or more YPG) against a team with an average defense (330 to 390 YPG), after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive game are 64-22 L/26 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Oklahoma to cover 

BYU is off back to back big wins vs Utah State and Bosie State the last two weeks, and could easily find themselves in an emotional letdown state vs a side they maybe overlooking. Im betting on senior QB Steven Calvert, who has compiled over 11,000 passing yards in his career, to be the key catalyst behind a cover here today for a Bowl eligible Liberty team that has scored 59 or more points three times this season already. 

BYU is 10-22 ATS in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game

CFB Road underdogs (LIBERTY) - excellent offensive team (440 or more YPG) against a good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG), after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 44-14 ATS L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Liberty to cover 

Could this finally be a turning of the guard in the SEC? Quite possibly yes, but as far as we are concerned covering is much more important. Alabama has dominated this conference for so long, its hard to bet against them. However, LSU is the real deal, both on defence and offence, and are more than capable of hanging tough here vs conference gridiron gods the Crimson Tide. It must be noted that No. 1 ranked teams are 10-2 SU and 9-2-1 ATS since 1981, including 8-0 SUATS as a dog. The Boyou Tigers fit the bill and have the guns to deliver the cash this Saturday. Last season Saban and company pasted the Tigers 29-0 and now with revenge on board LSU will be breathing Cajun fire knowing they are 5-1 ATS L/6 with conference revenge and 5-2 ATS vs undefeated opposition. Note: Alabama is just 3-10 ATS L/13 as 10 point or less conference favs. 

Look for Joe Burrow to outduelAlabama QB Tua Tagovailoa. 

Take the points with LSU 

  Georgia Southern now playing back to back road tilts  is off a huge  upset of Appalachian State last week and Im betting they will be in a letdown situation here this Saturday vs a Trojans team off a tough loss last week and now ready to get back into the win column on their own home field. Im betting Troys QB Kaleb Barker will take advantage of a week Georgia Southern pass D. Troys air attack has been extremely strong this season, and we will see that here today. Note:( Troy has had back to back 500 yard offensive outputs both on the road)

 Meanwhile, Troy’s  run D will get tested again this week for the 2nd straight time and they will be ready and fresh to handle that pressure because of the constant exposure to a ground attack. Coastal Carolina was able to upset Troy last week, because of their ability to balance their run game with key passes, something Georgia Southern just cant do. Note: Georgia Southern is highly over rated as they have been outscored and out yarded this season, and despite of up trending are a little over rated here in this spot a road chalk)

Georgia Southern is 3-7 ATS L/10 as road favourites.

Troy has won 17 of their L/23 SU at home. 

Home coming side gets it done today plus the points,

Take Troy to cover 

BC has been uptrending on my power rankings for a while now, and after accumulating a  school record 691 yards in offence last week in a DD blasting of Syracuse they enter this game with a great deal of momentum. Meanwhile, Florida State their visiting opponents can be best described as inconsistent and now completely lost without fired head Coach Will Taggart. Advantage Boston College.

Seminoles are 1-8-3 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Seminoles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home.Seminoles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.Seminoles are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.Seminoles are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.

Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Eagles are 7-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.Eagles are 17-5-1 ATS in their last 23 games following a ATS win.Eagles are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games on fieldturf.Eagles are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.Eagles are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 conference games.Eagles are 39-17-2 ATS in their last 58 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

 CFB Home favorites  (BOSTON COLLEGE) - after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 36-1 SU L/10 seasons and a perfect 5-0 SU this season! 

Play on Boston College to cover 

The Golden Gophers are averaging 39.9 points and 446.9 total yards per game and have the ability to make the Penn State defence very hard to keep them under control. Im betting the Golden Gophers, who rank 24th in the nation with 232.0 rushing yards per game, to give the Nittany Lions top tier run D all they can handle on their way to a cover for the 6th straight time.

PENN ST is 4-14 ATS L/18  in road games versus excellent defensive teams - allowing 285  or less yards/game. PENN ST is 7-23 ATS L/30 in road games after allowing 9 points or less last game. Franklin is 8-17 ATS  when the total is between 42.5 and 49 as the coach of PENN ST.

Nittany Lions are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.

MINNESOTA is 10-2 ATS L/12 after allowing 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games. Fleck is 23-9 ATS  after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game in all games he has coached.

Golden Gophers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 conference games.Golden Gophers are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Home team is 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

CFB home team vs. the money line (MINNESOTA) - an excellent offensive team (34 or more PPG) against an excellent defensive team (16 or less PPG) after 7+ games, after scoring 37 points or more in 2 straight games are 26-6 SU L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB  home team (MINNESOTA) - good rushing team (190-230 RY/game) against an average rushing team (140-190 RY/game) after 7+ games, after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game.are 50-19 ATS L/10 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Minnesota Golden Gophers to cover 

I know alot of pundits might think that Washington is washed up and an emotional let down state after losing to Utah last time out, for their third home loss this season.... their most in in 4 years. However, it most be noted that Oregon State despite of up trending, just dont matchup well here vs a unfortunate but very good Huskies team that might want to get the pundits off their backs by taking out their frustrations on Beavers. Im betting on Huskies QB Eason to pick apart the Beavers pass defense wit big play after big play.  Washington is 22nd in the country in passing explosiveness and Oregon State is 126th at defending it. The Beavers rank outside the top 110 in opponent rush and pass explosiveness and look like fodder for a angry and downtrodden group this Friday night. 

Play on Washington to cover 

The Chargers are a team that does not get accolades from the public, and are in some ways homeless and using temporary shelter in LA where no one seems to care about them. So this Chargers team feels more comfortable on the road than when playing hosts . Meanwhile, the future Las Vegas Raiders , are a team that is up trending, and getting alot of respect from the pundits. However, it seems the lines makers are not buying the hype, and have installed the home team in this matchup as essentially a pickem on a short chalk line. It must be noted that Chargers QB Phillip Rivers , has been a ATM machine for his backers when he goes on the road vs division opposition going 27-12-1 ATS , and 16-4 ATS when his team is not favoured by more than 3 points which is the case here this Thursday night. I know Oakland has looked good this season, and are off a impressive win vs the Lions, but it must be noted that the Silver and Black have a long history of failure  this series losing 4 straight and 20 of the L/27 meetings SU and if they  are off a SU/ATS win and playing at home they are  0-11 ATS . 

Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.Chargers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games in November.Chargers are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 road games.

Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Oakland.

Play on the LA Chargers to cover 

The Temple Owls enter this game off a bye week, but prior to their break, they allowed  an average 45.3 PPG and 587 YPG in their last three tilts, which had me believing that they are highly over rated especially on D. Meanwhile, USF has won 3 of their L/4 and up trending and needs wins badly to become bowl eligible and will be ready to play a big game here tonight vs a program they have beaten in 3 of their L/4 meetings including the two most recent matchups as hosts. 

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TEMPLE) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game against opponent after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 30-70 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% go against conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (S FLORIDA) - after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game against opponent after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are 27-6 L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on USF to cover 

The Dallas Cowboys have defeated the NY Giants 5 straight times, but  NYG QB Daniel Jones was not under center in any of those games. All good and bad things must eventually come to an end. Whether the tide changes or not will soon be foretold. But one thing I am betting on is that the Gmen will make a game of this behind the arm of their young gun Jones: Note:  This is the first time Jones has all his skill players healthy and ready to play. WR Sterling Shepard looks ready to return after sitting out two games with his second concussion. TE Evan Engram is healthy. WR Golden Tate has played in four straight after returning from a suspension for using performance-enhancers. Barkley will be playing in his third straight after sitting out three with an ankle injury.

DALLAS is 6-16 ATS in road games off a home blowout win by 21 points or more since 1992.

Cowboys are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 Monday games.

Cowboys are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games in Week 9.

Cowboys are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.

NFL Road teams (DALLAS) - after beating the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game, in weeks 5 through 9 are 33-77 SU L/36 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NY Giants to cover 

The undefeated New England Patriots actually look vulnerable here according to my power rankings, and matchup algorithms vs rested Baltimore side off a bye week . It must be noted    that the Baltimore  Ravens rush  offence puts up an average of 5.5 YPR, while the Patriots allow 4.6 Yards Per Rush on defense.  So what Im expecting tonight is for the hosts to pound the ball down the throat of the Pats and to do extensive damage with this formula, and to come out of this tilt with a cover. 

New England is just 2-9 ATS L/11 vs rested .500 or better  non division opposition .

BALTIMORE is 32-17 ATS  against AFC East division opponents since 1992.

NFL Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW ENGLAND) - quick starting offensive team - scoring 14+ PPG in the first half, after allowing 14 points or less last game are 9-29 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road favorites (NEW ENGLAND) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after a win by 10 or more points are 18-50 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW ENGLAND) - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games are 7-25 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Baltimore Ravens to cover 

There is no real home field advantage for the LA Chargers playing here , in Dignity Health Sports Park and there will probably be more Packers fans than Chargers fans here. However, my power rankings suggest we have value in what could best be described as a neutral field environment.The Packers/Chargers are tied for the NFL lead with seven touchdown receptions by running backs and are more evenly matched than most might think. 

Last week the Chargers beat the Bears, but  the organization has had enough of  offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt  play calling and instead will have their QB coach Shane Steichen call plays this week a guy I think has been undervalued by the Chargers. This week look for QB Philip Rivers  who is s second in the league with 202 completions, fourth with 305attempts, third with 2,315 yards and 10th with 66.2 percent accuracy to have a decent Sunday, vs Aaron Rodgers and company.Note: In three career starts against Green Bay, he’s averaged 398 passing yards. 

I know its hard to bet against the Packers because of recency biases, but Im not going to give a great deal of attention to those numbers today and instead will base my opinion on the mathematics that suggest we have value taking points. 

NFL Underdogs or pick (LA CHARGERS) - struggling rushing team ( 3.5 YPR) against a poor rushing defense (4.5  or moreYPR) after 8+ games, after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games are 26-6 L/36 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Chargers to cover 

There is no culture of winning in Cleveland and now thye have to endure bad coaching which just does not bode well for this franchise. All the off seasons moves along with  the pundits in the media telling us how great Cleveland was going to be , still has the public believing the hype. I know QB  Baker Mayfield has a great arm, but he is no longer taking advantage of weak Big 12 defences, and here against secondaries and defences with a heart beat he's had his issues , and here against a blue collar Broncos D, Im betting those problems persist. I also know Joe Flacco is now lost to the Broncos for the season, and his backup Brandon Allen will start, but Flacco was not playing well and this might actually be a shot in the arm for  Denvers struggling offence. Note:Denver defense  has held each of their last four opponents to season low  or 2nd low yards. Im betting they will be key to us getting the cover. 

CLEVELAND is 0-8 ATS  vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return over the last 3 seasons.CLEVELAND is 4-14 ATS  after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.

I was on the fence , waiting and watching this line, and now that it has moved , thanks to public sentiment Ive changed my my mind and decided to jump in here and take the points. 

Play on the Denver Broncos to cover 

Whether Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes  starts this week or not , he had previous to be injured  flashed  signs of  the dreaded sophomore jinx and  in his three appearances  prior to that as he  completed less than 58% of his passes in those aforementioned tilts.

MINNESOTA is 12-4 ATS  in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.

NFL team (MINNESOTA) - good team (outgain opp. by 40-100 YPG) against an average team (+/- 40 YPG) after 8+ games, after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games 40-5 SU L/5 seasons. 

 Minnesota head coach Zimmer has seen his team cash 16 of his L/21 versus AFC opposition , including 6-0 ATS when the Vikings are coming off consecutive wins.Zimmer is also 41-15-2 ATS outside the NFC North and deserves respect as an underdog.

Play on the Minnesota Vikings to cover 

Last time out the Eagles temporarily saved their season with a win as dogs, and on the flip side their opponents the Bears continue their incompetence, off a loss they should have had against the Chargers last week in a season full of a comedy of errors. Now Chicago Im betting will be feeling downtrodden while the Eagles will feel rejuvenated and ready to perform here at home with momentum on their sides. I honestly have not had a great read on the Eagles this season, but momentum means alot and I'm riding that here today. 

Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.

Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 ATS off a upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons

The Bears are 0-13 ATS /SU failing to cover by more than 13 ppg as a road dog after a game in which less than 22 percent of their opponent?s first downs were from third down.

Play on the Philadelphia Eagles to cover 

Wembley Stadium - London, England

The Jags D, has been playing well of late but my own QB vs D, power rankings suggest Texans QB Deshaun Watson who has the  5th best QB rating in the league this season (105.7), has the edge. I know this is like the Jags second home after playing 6 games here in England,  but the overall matchup projections favour the Texans. 

The Jaguars are 2-16 SU/ATS as non-conference dogs dating back 7 seasons. 

NFL Favorites vs. the money line (HOUSTON) - excellent passing team - with a completion pct of 64% or better, after allowing 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games are 46-5 L/10 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Houston to cover 

 Im not sold on Oregon and believe their being over hyped by the media.  The Ducks have recently struggled defensively against air raid offenses like USC owns and have really showed some serious cracks in their secondary.  Oregons last  two games,  they were really blown up and had to make comebacks to win those tilts , by a combined 6 points. So tonight against an elite group of USC receivers, the Ducks Im betting are in trouble . On D, Im also believe more strongly than most in the Trojans D is a quality group. Note:USC is 10th in opponent red zone touchdown scoring and own  a top-20 rank in points allowed per red zone trip.

The Trojans are 16-6-1 ATS as home underdogs, including 9-1 ATS if they won .625 or less win percentage.

CFB road team (OREGON) - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games are 42-84 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the USC Trojans to cover 

Utahs top tier  defence is relentless but they don't get alot of sacks. Tonight I betting Washingtons QB Eason will have time to operate and generate alot more scoring chances then the public and lines-makers are estimating. Im not underestimating how good a team the Utes, have and respect them greatly but my power ranking suggest that the Huskies matchup well against the Utes. Last season the Utes lost twice to Washington  , once as hosts  (in their only home loss of the campaign) and then in the rematch in the Pac-12 title game, scoring a lowly 10 combined points in those defeats. It must be noted HC Chris Peterson is much maligned, for his under performing ways,  and will now be operating in desperation mode under what could easily be his last stand. The wagons are  circled and the plans are in place, and I expect a huge effort from the under valued  home side in this spot. 

Since 2005, a Top 10 ranked team like Utah vs an unranked team like the Huskies off a loss & the line is 5 or less is just 1-13 SU.

CFB  team (UTAH) - after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, a top-level team ( 80%) or better  playing a good team (60% to 80%) is 16-43 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Washington Huskies to cover 

TIAA Bank Field - Jacksonville, FL

The Gators (7-1, 4-1 SEC) and Bulldogs (6-1, 3-1) both are ranked among the nation's Top 10 for a second straight meeting. GEORGIA is 11-2 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons

Georgia's Jake Fromm will start against Florida for the third consecutive year after directing victories in 2017 (42-7) and last season (36-17). The junior quarterback has completed 70.7 percent of his passes (123 of 174) this season for 1,406 yards, with nine touchdowns and three interceptions. Im betting he is key to a victory here vs a a up-trending but not quite ready for prime time Florida side. 

Keys on Defence favors Georgia:Defensively, the Bulldogs rank seventh overall by allowing 266.7 yards; the Gators are 25th while allowing 319.5ypg. Florida ranks ninth with 29 sacks (3.63 average), while Georgia is fifth against the run (85.7 yards per game).

Smart is 9-1 ATS  in road games after a win by 21 or more points as the coach of GEORGIA. ( Georgia 21 Kentucky 0 last time out )

Play on Georgia to cover 

Kansas State played an amazing game last week in a huge upset win vs Oklahoma. Now Im betting they will be in a huge emotional letdown situation vs a up trending Kansas side and very vulnerable. It must also be noted that Kansas State has lost the stat wars in 5 straight games, and own the No. 129th Red Zone Defense in the nation, and are highly over rated despite of their  media blitzed accomplishments. Im betting on QB Carter Stanley to add to his  900 yards in his last three games and 13 touchdowns with a primo effort here in a tilt that could feature a SU upset, but more importantly as far as we are concerned a Jayhawks cover. 

KANSAS is 12-3 ATS after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games.

CFB home team (KANSAS) - good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG) against an average defense (330 to 390 YPG) after 7+ games, after gaining 475 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 23-3 SU L/27 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Kansas to cover 

The Thundering Herd are proving themselves highly inconsistent and a team that plays down their competition consistently. Note: Marshall is just  12-26-4 ATS as road favourite against below .500 opposition  .With a big time battle in the  C-USA West division  on the horizon vs No.1 Louisiana Tech  a full concentrated effort vs a team like Rice with no victories is a high probability. The Owls cannot get over the hump, but they are an improved team, that has suffered 4 losses by 10 points or less and viable Home Coming underdogs here this Saturday afternoon. 

MARSHALL is 0-6 ATS  when the total is between 42.5 and 49 over the last 2 seasons and is 0-6 ATS when playing on a Saturday this season and is also 0-6 ATS  after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Rice to cover 

Old Dominion enters this tilt against Florida International with just one victory this season and that came  against Norfolk State in their opener,. Currently on a 7 game losing streak, things don't look to get much better for a side just going through the motions, as they face a team that needs wins to get a Bowl game invite. Im betting the Monarchs128th offence that averages. only 14.5 PPG will be on the wrong side of a big time beatdown. ODU is 0-6 ATS L/6 as underdogs of 15 points or more and another negative output Is my bet today.

Wilder is 7-16 ATS  as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points as the coach of OLD DOMINION with the average ppg diff clicking in at -23.4 ppg. 

CFB road team (OLD DOMINION) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games against opponent after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games are 10-36 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Florida International to cover 

Since 2014 the  Central Michigan Chips have been NIU’s kryptonite and have won four of the last five and Im betting they find a way to turn the trick again. 

Meanwhile, Quinten Dormady will once again take the snaps for the Chips in place of David Moore, starting his fourth game in a row. Dormady has completed 63.7% of his passes this season for 1022 yards. He is backed by  Jonathan Ward who is one of the best running backs in the MAC. He’s averaging 6.8 yards per carry and has 725 yards and nine touchdowns on the campaign. I am expecting the Chips to do more damage then the linesmakers expect vs a banged up NIU defence and get us the cover here today. 

C MICHIGAN is 8-1 ATS after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.

CFB Home favorites vs. the money line (C MICHIGAN) - after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 36-1 SU L/10seasons for a 97% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Central Michigan to cover 

 This Thursday night  two teams to be perceived the public to be at the opposite end of the performance spectrum do battle. San Francisco is at the head of the  NFC West as the remaining undefeated team in the conference after smashing Carolina last week 51-13, while Arizona is below .500 and in last place in the division. However, Arizona may not be as bad as the public might believe, as the Cardinals were riding a three-game winning streak before visiting the New Orleans Saints Sunday and losing 31-9. Recency bias plays into alot of lines in any bet-able sports, and because of this value can be obtained in certain circumstances. Tonight we have one of those situations as my own projections estimate that from a mathematical standpoint that Arizonas chances of covering are in the 55% range, which makes this a very viable investment opportunity. Note: Arizona is 5-0 SU in its last 5 overall games when playing San Francisco and  is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Francisco.

ARIZONA is 25-8 ATS after allowing 7 or more yards/play in their previous game . 

ARIZONA is 17-4 ATS L/21 vs. very good defensive teams who give up 14 or less points/game . 

NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games are 7-25 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

NFLRoad favorites (SAN FRANCISCO) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after a win by 10 or more points are 18-50 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against  74% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Home teams  (ARIZONA) - mistake-free team - committing 0.75 or less turnovers/game, after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 31-5 SU L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Arizona to cover 

The Eagles currently on a 3 game win streak are 16-point underdogs entering the rivalry game,  at the time of my selection. GS  is the last team to take down App State by a a 34-14 shocker on Oct. 25, 2018. Since losing to the Eagles over a year ago, App has rolled off 13 straight victories. 

Can  Georgia Southern turn the trick again. Well I don't know , but I do believe according to my projections that we have value at two TDs or more with a Eagles side, that actually has the type of team that an make the Mounties work hard for a win.Georgia Southern ranks No. 7 nationally in rushing offense (259.9 yards per game),  and hardly ever throw. So we all know what's coming at App State , but that still does not make it an easy task for the Mountaineers. 

Look for this big time rivalry to be a physical hard fought battle that will be won on the ground. 

CFB  road team (GA SOUTHERN) - average defensive team (330-390 YPG) against a good defensive team (280 to 330 YPG) after 7+ games, after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 35-11 ATS L/10 seasons for a 76% conversion rate. 

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (GA SOUTHERN) - off a home win by 17 points or more against opponent off a double digit road win are 40-14 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Home favorites (APPALACHIAN ST) - after beating the spread by 35 or more points total in their last three games, undefeated on the season are 17-43 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Georgia Southern to cover 

Baylor at 7-0 is off a by week and well rested, and very ready and fresh to lay a two way beatdown on a struggling West Virginia side that is just plain over matched here. West Virginia has averaged 14 ppg in their L/2 and Im betting they wont even reach that out put here this week, while they get gashed in a big way resulting in a Baylor cover. Note: BAYLOR is 10-1 ATS L/11 as a home favorite of 14.5 to 21 points : Baylor 40.9 Opponent 16.3 . 

CFB home team  (BAYLOR) - a top caliber team (+14 or more PPG differential) against a terrible team (-10 PPG or less differential), after a win by 17 or more points are 27-1 U L/27 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +31.4 ppg. 

Play on Baylor to cover 

Aaron Rodgers is red hot, and the KC Chiefs will start a backup QB in place of their star pivot Patrick Mahomes who is surprisingly already back at practice. However, Andy Reid knows how to win, and it's never easy to get a victory in Arrow Head  and covering here won't be an easy task. 

Packers are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS win.Packers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.Packers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.

Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 8.Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Chiefs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Chiefs are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games following a ATS win.Chiefs are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.Chiefs are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Chiefs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.

NFL Underdogs or pick (KANSAS CITY) - after going under the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games, in non-conference games are 23-4 ATS L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate.

Play on the KC Chiefs to cover 

NY was dumped last week vs Arizona by a 27-21 count, but did make a come back after being down by DDs earlier in that game and have the ability to hang with a Motown side that has lost 3 straight games thanks in part to a porous D. Note: NFL  visiting underdogs are a bankroll expanding 45-24-1 ATS this season, including 18-4-1 ATS when facing opposition  coming off a defeat. Im betting on young gun Daniel Jones to have some luck here this week vs the Lions rickety secondary and for the Gmen to deliver the cash. 

Giants have won 4 of their L/5 visits to Detroit. 

NY GIANTS are 16-3 ATS L/19  after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games. DETROIT is 31-52 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.

NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY GIANTS) - after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after a loss by 10 or more points are 36-12 ATS L/36 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NY Giants to cover 

 Man did Philadelphia disappoint me last week in Dallas. It was an atrocious effort . Their D allowed 400 plus yards for the 2nd straight game. However despite of that,  according to my projections and perceptions  still a solid overall team that I whole heartedly believe in, especially against what I also project to be a over rated Buffalo team that has beat up on teams with a combined 6-25 SU record. I know this is the Eagles 3rd straight road game, and that they lost the previous two, but it must be noted that  NFL road teams in the 3rd of three straight away tilts are  a bankroll expanding 40-26 ATS when coming off consecutive losses and  32-16 ATS dating back 27 seasons), including 20-6 ATS in non- division tilts  and a near perfect 11-1 ATS when coming off a losing effort  of  10  or more points.. The Eagles themselves are  5-1 ATS as dogs in their 3rd straight away game.  The Eagles are also 12-1 SU and 13-0 ATS away in the regular season after scoring 10 or fewer points which was the case last week in Dallas. 

PHILADELPHIA is 8-1 ATS  when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 75% or better) over the last 3 seasons.

Bills are 1-4 ATS L/5 at home vs a side with a losing record.

Play on the Philadelphia Eagles to cover 

I was going to completely by pass this game, but the key number I was looking for awoke me to the value being offered here on this line. I know the Colts are playing great football, but Denver has been highly competitive so far this season despite of last weeks debacle vs the KC chiefs and QB  Flacco's sack numbers. The Broncos had won their previous two games, and lost by 2 points to Jacksonville, and Chicago and gave the red hot Packers a run for their money in a 26-17 loss. With recency bias on our sides and a the fact that all the Colts decisions have come within 7 points or less, this is a viable side opportunity with the underdog. 

I also expect the Colts to be in a letdown spot after their big win vs Houston last week giving the hungry side room to out energize their opponent. 

Broncos are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 8.Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in October.Broncos are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.

Colts are 0-3-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Play on the Denver Broncos to cover 

This line has just gone crazy as it opened at -3.5 and has steamed via public action all the way up to this -7 line. After that adjustment, we now have value with the ugly home mutt. I know Atlanta has looked horrendous for much of the early part of this season, but thanks to that recency bias we have value here taking points from a mathematical perspective. 

Fading large steam moves like this have been a long term winning proposition -131-77-6 ATS dating back 14 seasons for a solid 62% conversion rate and a ROI of 23%. 

ATLANTA is 33-17 ATS   after allowing 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games.

Play on the Atlanta Hawks to cover 

UNLV found a way to beat Vanderbilt last time out, and will now be completely wiped out and in a emotional letdown state, vs a Aztecs side that has revenge on board for being upset by UNLV last season at home. San Diego State is currently in top form having held their last three opponents to season low averages, and another shut down performance Im betting will come late Saturday night. 

SAN DIEGO ST is 9-1 ATS in road games vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return with the average ppg diff clicking in at +19 ppg.

San Diego State is 22-1 SU and 19-4 ATS off a SUATS victory under Rocky Long when taking on a  .500 or less conference opponent, including 13-0 SU and 12-1 ATS away.

CFB road team (SAN DIEGO ST) - a good team (+5 to +10 PPG diff.) against a terrible team (10 or less PPG diff.) after 7 or more games, in conference games are 32-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Home underdogs (UNLV) - with a turnover margin of -1 /game or worse on the season, after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are 11-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate! 

Play on San Diego State to cover 

Missouri was completely asleep at the proverbial wheel last week vs previously winless Vanderbilt, and had no energy what so ever after having rolled off 5 straight victories prior to that ugly affair,. Now steaming and embarrassed I expect the Tigers to come out here and roll over a toothless Kentucky offense that is down to using a WR as a QB. Last week, Kentuckys D, stood tall against Georgia in a rain drenched affair but could not move the ball and lost 21-0. The Wildcats might have more success this week, but Im betting it wont be enough against a  Missouri team that will be angry and motivated. 

 KENTUCKY is 0-6 ATS in home games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.KENTUCKY is 0-7 ATS after allowing 125 or less passing yards in 2 straight games.

CFB Home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (KENTUCKY) - after 3 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers are 38-77 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors.

CFBroad team (MISSOURI) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 49 or more points total in their last seven games are 35-11 ATS L/27 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Missouri to cover 

Kansas played a great game last week vs Texas, and despite of a humungous effort lost by two points. Now in a huge emotional let down spot Im betting they come out flat tonight against visiting Texas Tech and take it on the proverbial chin. I know the Texas Tech may not inspire bettors and they are off a loss last week, but in the past this has been a positive boost for their betting backers as the program has cashed 33 of their L/45 off a home defeat for a 73% conversion rate. Note:The Red Raiders have won 15 of the L/16 meetings including 8 straight as visitors and have the edge in this spot play.  

KANSAS is 4-16 ATS L/20  after 3 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored .

CFB Road favorites (TEXAS TECH) - average rushing team (+/- 40 RY/G) against a poor team who is outrushed by 50+ YPG after 7+ games, in conference games are 61-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Texas Tech to cover 

This is a bad matchup for the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors according to my cross reference power rankings, thus getting points is a viable investment opportunity. Hawaii has not won in New Mexico since 1987, and if they finally get it done this week, Im betting they won't cover here vs a Lobos team that can pound the rock on the ground with merciless fashion and that is 2-1 SU at home this season.Not having  suspended QB Sheriron Jones under center will have no impact on this game.

HAWAII is 0-7 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons. HAWAII is 3-15 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons. 

NEW MEXICO is 40-21 ATS 61 vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW MEXICO) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with a terrible defense (6.2 YPP), in conference games are 31-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW MEXICO) - off 2 consecutive losses by 10 points or more to conference rivals, in October games are 31-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on New Mexico to cover