San Diego State Rbs Rashaad Penny(2248 ry) and Juwan Washington (759 ry) will be primed to run wild this week, vs a Stanford D, that no longer looks as formidable as it once did. Last season Stanford performed well below expectations defensively and permitted a whopping 35 ppg in their final two games of the season, and now with Justin Reid and DT Harrison Phillips gone to the NFL via the draft, things don't likely look to get much better. San Diego State plays the type of ball that can keep them in this tilt till the end , and get us the cover.

STANFORDs last 6 games as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons have seen a average margin of victory coming by 13.3 ppg, which gives us value with the underdog based on line divergence.

CFB team (STANFORD) - in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight spread covers, team that had a good record last season (60% to 80%) playing a team that had a winning record are just 7-30 ATS L/26 seasons for a  go against 81% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on SD State to cover 

This one goes like this , Tulane owns a  shaky run D , and it  did not do well vs good run teams last season. Things don't look to get much better this season, and Wake Forest will take advantage of this and pound the ball on the ground mercilessly  right out of the gate, behind 5 retuning starters and than as tilt progresses use the option to do further damage through the air.  Yes even with Sam Hartman taking snaps, thanks to his ability to hit WR Greg Dorch who can also explode when playing on special teams, especially vs a revamped Tulane secondary. Willie Fritz and company have their hands full with a under rated and explosive Wake Forest football program today . With that said lay the points with the Demon Deacons on the road. 

TULANE is 2-11 ATS  against ACC opponents since 1992. ACC 40.8 Tulane 13.1

Play on Wake Forest to cover 

Super Bowl 52 - US Bank Stadium - Minneapolis, MN

New England's super star QB Tom Brady despite of being able to perform miracle after football miracle, via amazing comebacks,  must finally be feeling like he and his team mates need to play a complete start to finish game, and stop messing around with fate. With that said, I expect the 40 year old  Phenom, to be extremely focused and prepared to lay down a big beat down vs a Philadelphia side that is over matched  and in an emotional letdown situation after surprising Minnesota in DD blowout in  their Conference championship game .That aforementioned victory  saw the Eagles exert a lot of energy in a stadium that was rocking and shaking all night long with  extremely exuberant fans. The Party in the City of brotherly love, after wards was enormous, and the players now exhausted and ready to go into Super Bowl preparations, will now be even more drained by the time game time arrives.  Now against what I am betting is a very focused and experienced  Patriots team that been here before,   I expect we will see their superior overall talent in most facets of this game, including the all important Head Coach position  on full display this Sunday. Everyone loves an underdog, but when push comes to shove, the defending champs must be respected on any line of a TD or less and are my pick to win and cover and get yet another Super Bowl ring.

NEW ENGLAND is 11-1 ATS  L/12 versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or more  yards/play and is 10-1 ATS  L/11  vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game.

Belichick is 16-4 ATS L20 vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game.

PHILADELPHIA is 0-6 ATS  L/6 in road games  vs teams - allowing 350  or more yards/game.

NFL team (PHILADELPHIA) - off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season are 97-169 ATS L/34 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Update: I know the Pats previous Super Bowl wins have been close, but I'm betting that won't be the case this time around. Note: the straight-up winner of the Super Bowl is 43-6-2 ATS L/51.

Play on the New England Patriots to cover

The Steelers looked ahead to what they thought would be a meeting with the New England Pats, and were left flat lined in their game against Jacksonville last Sunday. You would think the Jaguars would have learned their lesson and remained humble after posting the upset and  Game and advancing to the AFC Championship Game  . But it looks like they have not, as their already chirping in social media about taking New England out this week, and advancing to the Super Bowl. I like the Jaguars , but in no way shape or form do they matchup well against the Pats, and are fade material in this spot at 10 points or less according to my power rankings.
This week I expect the less than gifted big man under center for the Jags  QB Bortles and the banged up rookie RB  Forunette  to struggle mightily against the Pats, and for NEs future hall of fame QB Tom Brady and array of multiple weapons to take the Jaguars out with ease.

NEW ENGLAND is 8-0 ATS L/8 versus good offensive teams - averaging  350 or more yards/game. NEW ENGLAND is 14-3 ATS L/17 when playing against a team with a winning record.JACKSONVILLE is 1-9 ATS L/10 in road games after scoring 40 points or more last game.NEW ENGLAND is 11-0 ATS (L/11 after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game .NEW ENGLAND is 12-1 ATS  L/13 after allowing 17 points or less in 3 straight games.

Update: No one knows how serious the supposed injury to Tom Brady's hand is, but one thing for sure, its not as bad  as HC Billicheck and company are playing it up to be. This HC is the king of mind games, which makes me doubt the seriousness of this clip to Brady's hand in what was described as  a very light  collision in practice.

New England has won 7 straight meetings in this series at home.

Play on the Patriots to cover

NFC Divisional Playoffs

Minnesota has impressed me this season with their brand of smash mouth football, and offensive production. The Vikings rank No.1 in overall scoring and defense and out gained 14 of their L/16 opponents this season, showing us their dominance in the process. They owned the stats battle entering this tilt vs the Saints, going 11-1 SU, 10-2 ATS and out yarded 11 of their L/12 opponents.  With that said, I look for a the Vikings to come out here and move forward  in explosive fashion as they attempt  to host this years Super Bowl, (a first in NFL history).  It must be noted that HC Mike Zimmer is a cover machine going 32-9 ATS lifetime vs non NFC North sides, including an amazing 18-3 ATS as hosts. Meanwhile, New Orleans despite of a strong campaign overall, reverted back to what my early season projections had suggested. Those estimations made the Saints an above average team , but not a over powering one. Their late season  dive I'm betting is more indicative of their true abilities as they were just 2-5 ATS down the stretch and lost the stats battle in the 5 ATS losses.

MINNESOTA is 13-4 ATS L/17 versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more yards/game .MINNESOTA is 8-1 ATS  in dome games this season.MINNESOTA is 9-0 ATS L/9 off a win against a division rival.MINNESOTA is 17-4 ATS L/21 after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread. HC Zimmer is 24-8 ATS in home games  and is 17-6 ATS L/23 as a home favorite of 7 points or less.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (NEW ORLEANS) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 15-36 ATS L/10 seasons for  a go against conversion rate of 70% for bettors.

The Vikings are 17-0 ATS /16-1 SU  at home off a game as a favorite in which they converted at least five third downs with the average margin of victory coming 17.6 ppg and average cover by 12.97 ppg.

Lay the points with Minnesota to cover

The Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6)   visit Heinz Field  to play  the Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3) in the Sunday's AFC Divisional Round. The Jaguars upset the Steelers 30-9 in Week 5 as 7.5-point road pups, behind  rookie running back Leonard Fournette who had a season-high 181 yards and two touchdowns . The Jacksonville D, was also out standing  and they all over Roethlisberger, as was evident by the veteran QB throwing 5 picks and getting sacked twice. Note:Roethlisberger was quick to praise the Jaguars' defense this week.QUOTE:"This is one of the best defenses I've ever played against," Roethlisberger said. END QUOTE:

The Steelers finished the season ranked third in the NFL in passing yardage, with the Jaguars first in pass defense.  The Jags also limited RB  Le'Veon Bell to 47 yards on 15 carries n the above mentioned upset they pulled.

Now fast forward to this matchup, and things may not get all that much better for the Steelers here against a team that style wise matches up very well against them. While I doubt Roethlisberger will as bad this time around, I'm betting the Steelers will not have an easy go of it against solid Jaguars D, and   an the leagues No.1 run  offense that when in gear can chew up a lot of yards on the ground and make life miserable for their opposition. Considering what my power rankings and matchup system vs system estimations suggest, a tilt that is a one possession game  is a high probability outcome, which the linesmakers agree with me about. Thus taking a TD+ with the underdog makes for a viable wagering opportunity.

Jaguars are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 vs. AFC.Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.Steelers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win. Jags are 4-1 ATS L/5 visits to Pittsburgh.

NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (JACKSONVILLE) - average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game are 73-38 L/34 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Jacksonville Jaguars to cover
 

CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP - Mercedes-Benz Stadium - Atlanta, GA

After watching Georgia shoot it out  with Oklahoma and win in OT it became obvious to me that this team, is really special, and  can both play top tier defense and show case an explosive offense, which makes them extremely dangerous on both sides of the ball , and a bad matchup for Alabama .  Meanwhile, Alabama despite of their over powering performance vs Clemson, still  played a game in their comfort zone behind their trade mark defense , and methodical offense. It was how Saban and company have won games for a long time now.  I also  know the public has now piled all back onto the Tides bandwagon, but I'm betting   Nick Saban's domination of college football could easily come  to end today and could begin a down trend for Alabama football. Yes, this is definitely a contrarian view point,as I  refuse to stay inside the box by  following the mainstream medias viewpoint and instead look at all possible indicators and factors.   Its hard betting against the Tide, but I am very impressed with Georgia's ability to play two way football, something Saban's side does not look capable of doing in their current form. It will be Georgia's superior  offensive abilities  that will be the difference maker here today.

GEORGIA is 6-0 ATS  L/6  in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing  7.5or less  yards per return. Bulldogs HC Smart is 7-0 ATS  L/7 in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread.

Crimson Tide are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference games.Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games.

CFB Neutral field underdogs (GEORGIA) - excellent rushing team - averaging 225 or more rushing yards/game, after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 4 straight games are 23-3 ATS L/24 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Georgia to cover

NFC Wildcard Playoffs

The Falcons have big game play off experience while the key man under center  Jared Goff for the Rams does not . It must be noted that first start QBs in the post season are just 11-27 SU/ATS L/15 seasons.
 I know the Falcons have not inspired many bettors this season, but having been in key post season situations before they are better prepared to deal with the pressure   than their inexperienced opposition. The Rams can score in bunches, but the Falcons D, has been staunch this season, and held 6 teams to 300 yards or less and their L/2 opponents to season low offensive outputs.

 The Falcons are ranked top 10 in both Defense and offense.

ATLANTA is 6-0 ATS L/6 against NFC West division opponents dating back to last  season.

Play on Atlanta to cover

CITRUS BOWL - Camping World Stadium - Orlando, FL


Notre Dame and their top tier coach Brian Kelly put together a fine group on the field this campaign , and overall they played incredible ball for 90% of this season and looked like play off contenders . Playing at such a high level against what was some very strong competition this season , finally saw them slip towards the end against Miami fl and Stanford, suffering stagnant losses. It must be noted that the Catholic boys faced the toughest schedule of all bowl teams this season and must be respected here against a average SEC team in LSU. Yes, I know HC Orgeron is liked by his players, and finished strong, but I cannot over look the ugly effort they had against Troy at home this season, and consistent lapses in this teams abiity to be motivated. It must also be noted that new Hcs in Bowl games as favorites of less than 4 points are just 6-15 ATS L/21.

I really believe this is a coaching mismatch, and I'm betting after a month off Notre Dame will be ready to roll again. Kelly is 25-12 ATS in his career when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 75% or better) .

Play on Notre Dame to cover

The Atlanta Falcons need a victory more than the Carolina Panthers do when the teams meet in the regular-season final Sunday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium and will be the more motivated of these two teams this Sunday. The Falcons (9-6) can clinch the final NFC wild-card spot with a victory.

Carolina's HC Rivera has already thrown caution to the wind, and told the media We have to make sure we do it in a judicious fashion and that's not to expose him," Rivera said , referring to his veteran QB Cam Newton. So needless to say, this game is more about staying healthy for the Falcons and not worrying about their play off position entering the post season.

I know Atlanta is coming off a loss, but in the past QB Matt Ryan is 9-2 SU/ATS at home in division games coming off a loss , including 8-0 ATS L/8 and a perfect 4-0 ATS facing a team off a victory like Carolina is. Also teams off appearing in a Super Bowl last season, and losing are 12-1 ATS L/13 times when they are off a loss of more than 3 points which happened in a 23-13 loss to the Saints last week,

Needless to say, I feel good about backing a motivated team like Atlanta vs a side that has more lose than win here today.

NFL Home favorites (ATLANTA) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 29-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Atlanta Falcons to cover

CAPITAL ONE ORANGE BOWL - Hard Rock Stadium - Miami, FL

Miami fl after a strong season finished off their campaign with a couple of down performances vs  Pittsburgh followed by a ACC Championship loss vs defending national champion Clemson . This was a Miami Fl side that was talked about as a national contender and missed the play offs by one game. Remember the Canes were also undefeated before those two above mentioned losses and in no way should be disrespected here vs Wisconsin. Miami I'm betting will do just fine vs a Badgers side that despite of being a defensive juggernaut have problems vs top tier secondary's ranking 112 in intercepted passes . Note: Hurricanes had 15 interceptions this season.

ACC Bowl underdogs are 10-0-1 ATS l/11 against Big 10 opposition  .

CFB road team vs. the money line (WISCONSIN) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a good defense (4.2 to 4.8 YPP) after 7+ games, after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game are 3-29 SU L/25 seasons for a 91% conversion rate for bettors  losing by an average of 17.8 ppg.

Play on  Miami Fl  to cover

TAXSLAYER BOWL - Everbank Field - Jacksonville, FL

The Mississippi State defense enters this game vs Louisville very under rated. This season the Bulldogs went against some explosive offenses in SEC play so facing ,Louisville's top tier offense will not be an issue. Miss State looked very strong against the pass, ( 302 total yards per game), ranking 10th in the nation and allowed opposing run games to average just 127 rushing yards per game. The Bulldogs proved their defensive ferociousness in a close 31-24 loss to number one ranked Alabama.. Meanwhile, Louisville despite of being offensively explosive are well below average defensively, as was evident when they allowed 41 points to Clemson, and 42 points to Wake Forest and more than one defensive lapse against average offenses during their less than memorable campaign. Today against a Mississippi State team that can control the clock with a vaunted running game and a versatile QB under center ( Nick Fitzgerald) I'm betting the Bulldogs have a very viable opponent . Also look for Louisville and their super star under center LaMar Jackson to struggle at key junctures of this game and fail to cover the number.

MISSISSIPPI ST is 16-3 ATS L/18 after playing a game at home .Petrino is 5-15 ATS L/20 vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less yards per return.

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LOUISVILLE) - after a game where they forced no turnovers .
against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are just 41-74 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Mississippi State to cover

 CAMPING WORLD BOWL - Camping World Stadium - Orlando, FL

Virginia Tech finished their season by shutting out long time rivals Virginia in their final game of the season by a 10-0 count. VTech defense was phenomenal this season allowing an average of just 13.5 ppg. They should also be a handful for a an explosive Oklahoma St offense here today. Meanwhile, on the flipside, the Cowboys D, is porous, allowing 30.1 ppg on the season. What I;m betting will happen is that VTech will score with consistency today, while Oklahoma State will stall on key drives, which will be the difference maker. 

Gundy is 5-13 ATS L/18 vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game.
Fuente is 9-0 ATS L/9 when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest in all games. and is  10-1 ATS  after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games.

OKLAHOMA ST is 6-19 ATS L/25  vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game .

Play on VTech to cover

ACADEMY SPORTS + OUTDOORS TEXAS BOWL - NRG Stadium - Houston, TX

Missouri ended their season as one of the hottest teams in the nation winning 6 straight. Meanwhile, Texas after a disastrous start to their season, getting pummelled by Maryland in their opener, in front of  their own embarrassed fans , picked  things up as the season progressed and looked like a viable opponent by the end of their campaign.

Missouri is an explosive offensive team, but their defense is atrocious, ranking 122 in red zone defense. Today I expect top tier HC tom Herman who is 9-1 ATS as a dog , to be well prepared for the Tigers attack after a 1 month preparation time, and for his own capable offense to smash and grab a cover for us here today against a group of pylons.

TEXAS is 6-0 ATS  vs. excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more passing yards/att.

Play on Texas  to cover

FOSTER FARMS BOWL - Levi's Stadium - Santa Clara, CA

Rich Rodriguez's Arizona started their season strong ,but ended their campaign on a down note losing 3 of their L/4 games and on the season the defense was a big concern as they surrendered 40 or more points in 5 of their 9 games. Meanwhile, their opponents today Purdue , went 6-6 on the seasons and notched 4 conference victories and are being under rated here by the lines-makers. The Boilermakers HC Jeff Brohm is a major planner and motivator and has a perfect 3-0 record in Bowl games and gets my support here today.

Big 10 teams are 10-4-1 ATS vs PAC 12 Bowl opponents. Arizona's HC Rich Rod is 3-23 ATS vs Big 10 opposition.

ARIZONA is 0-6 ATS  L/6  in road games vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return.Rodriguez is 2-13 ATS L/15  in road games after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored.

Play on Purdue to cover

QUICK LANE BOWL - Ford Field - Detroit, MI

A lot has been made about how Northern Illinois beat Nebraska earlier this season, but the truth is the Corn huskers were not that good  . Also a lot of pundits also seem to like to point out how well this blue collar Huskies program , has played on the road over the years winning 37 of 51 games, but fail to point out that NIU are  2-10 ATS  L/12 as a neutral field underdog, and how they have crashed and burned in 4 straight Bowl outings, and last year look like they made a ghost appearance by not showing up in a 55-7 blasting at the hands of Boise State.  Now they go against  a viable ACC team, that have a huge front 7 that can slow down a average Huskies offensive attack. Also from a turnover perspective it must be noted that NIU were on the negative end of the turnover battle in 6 of their L/9 games, which is not a good omen vs a Duke team that protects the ball well, and better at forcing turnovers. I know 9 of the 10 Quick Lane games have been decided by TD points or less and this one might end up like that to , but it will be Duke that gets the cover as my number makes them 6.5 to 7 point chalk thus giving us value on this line.

DUKE is 21-8 ATS  L/29 in games played on turf and their current HC Cutcliffe is 15-3 ATS  in games played on turf with the average margin of victory coming by 6.6 points per game.

Play on Duke to cover

HAWAII BOWL - Aloha Stadium - Honolulu, HI

Fresno State is a fine football team, and have been a cash cow for their betting backers this season, when playing as dogs going 6-0 ATS.  With Houston losing Tom Herman to Texas this past season, they were  not as dangerous, with a 100 yard difference on defense. The Cougars are weak favorites here vs a side that my own rankings suggest is the superior side.

FRESNO ST is 8-0 ATS  L/8 when playing against a team with a winning record. FRESNO ST is 7-0 ATS   vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better.FRESNO ST is 7-0 ATS    off a road loss which happened against Boise State (17-14).Bulldogs are 11-1 L/12 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Cougars are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.

Favorites in this Bowl game just 2-8 ATS L/10.

Play on Fresno State to cover

The SF 49ers are showing some life here late in the season behind, QB  jim Garroppolo who is a perfect 5-0 as a starter in the NFL, after last weeks victory vs a stunned Tennessee Titans. Note: Garoppolo is completing 68.7 percent of his passes for 1,026 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions for a passer rating of 98.0.Today against a Jacksonville, team feeling relaxed after clinching a play off spot , I'm betting the Niners shine again, and get us a cover.

NFL Road teams (JACKSONVILLE) - after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are a long term losing proposition going just  43-79 ATS L/34 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate on the blind.

Jacksonville is 2-19 SU L/21 in the first of two straight scheduled road games and are 1-9 ATS in their L/10 games after exploding for 40 or more points, which they did last week. Jacksonville is also 3-17 ATS L/20 vs NFC opposition and 1-11 ATS mark vs NFC west foes including 0-5 ATS on the highway.JACKSONVILLE is 4-16 ATS L/20 after allowing 200 or less total yards in their previous game. SF is 4-1 ATS L/5 in this series.

Play on the SF 49ers to cover

After an abusive nasty and physical affair vs the Steelers 3 weeks ago, that saw the Bengals blow a DD lead and eventually lose, they came out with a physical and emotional hang over and crapped in their own beds in their last two trips to the gridiron. Now rested and their PTSD, on the wain I expect they will give their home town fans and management some satisfaction with a strong effort in their last game at home this season ( HC Lewis is a perfect 5-0 SU L/5 last home games of the season) I know the men from Motown, are winning of late , but its not like their consistent team .

With that said,  I'm recommending we take the host side and the points.

DETROIT is 9-25 ATS  L/34as a road favorite of 7 points or less  and   is 9-27 ATS L/36  in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins

NFL team (CINCINNATI) - after scoring 9 points or less in 2 straight games are 39-12 ATS L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Cincinnati Bengals to cover

The Fins were in an emotional let down situation in Buffalo last week, after beating the defending New England Pats the week before. Now I'm betting the Dr.Jeykell and Mr. Hyde Fins come in here and make life difficult for a Chiefs side  that are off a division home win last week. It must be noted that KC is 0-9 ATS L/9 as hosts off a division home victory and  off consecutive wins.
The Chiefs are also 0-5 ATS L/5 as a home fav of more than 7 points .

KANSAS CITY is 0-11 ATS L/11  after gaining 375 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games since 1992.

Favorites (KANSAS CITY) - after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a marginal losing team in the second half of the season are 15-38 ATS L/34 seasons, for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Miami Dolphins to cover

These teams battled it out last season in bowl competition, with App State taking a 31-28 thriller. now in the rematch I'm expecting another close confrontation.

The matchup showcases a explosive Toledo offense,  and a team that went 11-2 on the season. Meanwhile, Appalachian State lost four games this season,   but  three of its four defeats in 2017 came  by seven points or less, including a one-point defeat to what has suddenly  become a potent  Wake Forest side. The only other loss for the Mountaineers was a 31-10 loss at Georgia in the opener , which is a play off team for a national championship.

Tonight I expect App State to counter Toledos big time attack, by pounding the ball on the ground and controlling time of possession. The Mountaineers averaged around 31 minutes in time of possession this year and will be the catalyst for them getting us the cover here tonight.

Sun Belt teams have won 4 of the L/5 Dollar General Bowl games

Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TOLEDO) - after a win by 17 or more points against opponent after scoring 42 points or more last game. 26-64 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 71% for bettors.

Play on App state to cover

LOCKHEED MARTIN ARMED FORCES BOWL - Amon G. Carter Stadium - Fort Worth, TX

These two solid rushing teams and defenses will go head today in a game that I'm betting will be fairly low scoring and tightly contested. Army has dealt well with ground heavy attacks this season, beating both Air force and Navy, and facing RB Rashaad Penny and company will not be a difficult for them. Meanwhile, look for Army's multi faceted rushing offense, that averaged 335 ypg, to do more than enough damage to keep them competitive and possibly pull off the upset. It must be noted that Military bowl teams are 22-4 ATS L/26 vs .600 or better opposition.

This  is Army's seventh all-time bowl appearance. Army is 4-2 in previous post season games, and those six  appearances have been decided by a total of 19 points  and  all by a touchdown or less and I'm expecting a rinse and repeat situation here in this game.

HC Rocky Long of SD St is has lost  7 of his 11 Bowl Games.

Aztecs are 2-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Aztecs are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 non-conference games.Aztecs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. INDEP.Black Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in December.

Play on Army to cover

.

FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL - Albertons Stadium - Boise, ID

Central Michigan is a very under rated team, that has beaten the likes of Western Michigan, and Northern Illinois this season and been extremely competitive all season and can move the ball in key situations. They have won four straight and enter this tilt with momentum. Meanwhile, QB Josh Allen and Wyoming , have experienced a disappointing season an inability to move the ball, and the future NFL draft pick is banged up with a sore shoulder for this game which will not help his teams cause. Both teams force their opponents to make mistakes and get turnovers, so their even there. The difference maker I'm betting comes via Central Michigan's ability to score with more frequency than Wyoming. I know the Cowboys have shown some decent defense this season, but Northern Illinois also is tough defensively and Central Michigan found a way to beat them, and I'm betting on a similar effort here from Chippewa's vs a Wyoming side that I have ranked below 3 other MAC teams .

C MICHIGAN is 10-1 ATS in road games when they are outgain their opponents by 50-100 yards something I'm projecting will happen.


CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (WYOMING) - an average offensive team (21-28 PPG) against a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) after 7+ games, in non-conference games are just 8-27 L/10 seasons for a 77% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Central Michigan to cover

Florida International is a team that currently ranks/ rates fairly high on my own power ranking charts for smaller conference football programs. Meanwhile, Temple in my humble opinion gets way to much respect based on past seasons, under a different head coach. This season , the Owls have shown flashes of their previous brilliant efforts dating back a couple of seasons, but make no mistake that this team is no longer as good as the linesmakers and many pundits might have you believe. Fl Inters HC Davis, who also had head coaching stints at North Carolina and the Cleveland Browns in addition to his time at Miami, has a veteran at quarterback in senior Alex McGough, whom he calls "one of the best quarterbacks that I've been around at all levels of coaching."
McGough has completed 65.3 percent of his passes for 2,791 yards and 17 touchdowns against only eight interceptions and I'm betting he will be a key catalyst in FIU covering here tonight.

HC Butch Davis was 6-0 against the Owls in his time at Miami.


Florida Inter - HC Davis is 16-1 ATS after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game and is 7-0 ATS L/7 after gaining 300 or more rushing yards last game in all games .( FIU beat Umass 63-45 in their finale in outrushed them 379 to 156. )

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (FLA INTERNATIONAL) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games are 32-9 ATS L/25 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TEMPLE) - after a win by 17 or more points against opponent after scoring 42 points or more last game are 25-64 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Florida International to cover

The Steelers are off back to back grueling games and comebacks vs Cincinnati and last week vs the Baltimore Ravens. The game against the Bengals was nasty and extremely physical and 2nd game vs the Ravens while not as ugly was exhausting , which will now have the Steelers on tired legs at the worst possible time. Meanwhile, New England had a 7 game win streak ended at Miami last time out, as Brady and company looked like they were more interested in south Florida vacation rather than their game against the Fins, and it cost them as they lost 27-20 as big road favs on Monday night. What I'm betting will happen in this tilt, is that the Pats will be ready for a bounce back, against a tired side that has worked way to hard of late.

NEW ENGLAND is 16-3 ATS  L/19 when playing with 6 or less days rest .NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS  L/9 in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5.NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 ATS  L/7 as a road favorite of 7 points or less. NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 ATS  L/7 versus good offensive teams - averaging  350 or more  yards/game .

Patriots are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

NFL Favorites (NEW ENGLAND) - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games ae 32-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the New England Patriots to cover

All teams go through slumps, including the KC chiefs, who ended a 4 game losing streak with a win last week vs the Oakland Raiders. Now with a little momentum on their sides I'm betting they take out a LA chargers side, that has won 4 straight games. I know Andy Reid's squad may not inspire bettors , but remember this is the NFL, and teams can go form zero to hero very quickly and vice versa. With that said, when using my player to player matchup systems and styles of play, my own analysis likes the way the Chiefs matchup vs the Chargers as was evident on Sept 24 in LA when the Chiefs beat the Chargers 24-10.

KC is 7-0 SU L/7 in this series.

Chargers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.Chargers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Chiefs are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC West.Chiefs are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA CHARGERS) - revenging a loss against opponent by 14 points or more, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are just 12-35 ATS dating back 34 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 75% for bettors.

Play on KC Chiefs to cover

CAMELLIA BOWL - Crampton Bowl - Montgomery, AL

Middle Tenn State enters this bowl game having failed to cover 4 straight bowl appearances and I'm betting on another loss here vs Arkansas State this week . I know a lot has been made of how Middle Tennessee State had to endure playing without injured QB Brent Stockstill the son of the Blue Raiders coach, but the truth is with or without him in the line this  MTSU is just plain over rated and according to my numbers in over their head vs Red Wolves team that out gained their final 7 opponents of the season. . Meanwhile, Arkansas State boasts an explosive QB Justice Hansen who averages 330 ypg, and has converted 34 TDs this season and the team as whole averages more than 2 TDs a game more than their opponents tonight. I waited to get -3 and a few books have made it available so, I have decided to pull the trigger.

MIDDLE TENN ST is 1-10 ATS L/11 after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins and is   9-22 ATS in road games after playing 3 straight conference games.

Play on Arkansas State to cover

GILDAN NEW MEXICO BOWL - Dreamstyle Stadium - Albuquerque, NM

The Marshall Thundering herd enter Bowl action with an established college football pedigree that must be respected. Marshall is 10-1 SU ATS in their L/11 Bowl games, and are a perfect 8-0 SU/ATS vs .580 or better opposition like Colorado State. Meanwhile, Colorado State since beating up on Oregon State have been a disappointment this season, and are currently on a 0-6 ATS run.

CUSA Bowl teams are very successful of late winning 22 of their L/33 SU since 2011.

Holliday is 9-1 ATS L/10  when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest .

Play on Marshall to cover
 

R+L CARRIERS NEW ORLEANS BOWL - Superdome - New Orleans, LA

North Texas enters this game as TD underdog vs the Sun Belt champion Troy. However, it must be noted that UNT is 9-0 SU all time vs Sun Belt sides when they own a .500 record or better , and Troy is just 2-7 ATS /0-4 ATS L/4 as favs vs CUSA opposition and have failed to cover 3 of 4 as Bowl favorites. I know the Mean Green looked horrid in their championship tilt vs Florida Atlantic , but the good news is that CUSA Bowl teams are 13-2 ATS off a loss. Note: Conference USA sides  like N.Texas in Bowl Games over the L/6 seasons are 22-11 SU. I also noticed Troy looked wiped at the end of the season and despite of beating Arkansas State in their last game were actually out gained by more than 300 yards.

NORTH TEXAS is 10-2 ATS  L/12 in road games after trailing in their previous game by 24 or more points.

Play on North Texas to cover

Denver is off ending an extended 8 game losing streak last week vs a sub .500 opponent the NY Jets by a 23-0 count. Now suddenly they are being made road favorites, which is kind of odd considering they have lost 8 straight SU/ATS away dating back to last season and how awful they have looked more most of this season.  I know the Colts may not inspire bettors, but in the past the Colts have had success when facing this Broncos franchise winning 9 of the L/10 meetings ATS ( 8-2 SU), and have done well in Thursday night football tilts winning 13 of their L/15 appearances SU. These teams are very closely matched in their present forms , and getting points here is the less of two evils and a viable investment opportunity.

Denver is 0-6 ATS on the road this season with the average score clicking in at : Opponent 30.5 Denver 13.5. DENVER is 0-7 ATS  L/7 vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing  7.5 or less yards per return in the second half of the season dating back to last season.

NFL Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DENVER) - after allowing 6 points or less last game against opponent after a loss by 6 or less points are 12-35 ATS L/34 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 75% on the blind for bettors.

Play on the Indianapolis colts to cover

The Steelers enter this game a bit banged up with key Receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster  suspended after a hard block on Cincinnati Bengals linebacker Vontaze Burfict on Monday night and will also miss  Linebacker Ryan Shazier out with  a spinal injury suffered during that Helmut banging tilt . That was a physical game, and I'm betting the Steelers won't be as fresh as they need to be vs another rival the Baltimore Ravens. Add to that the Steelers also exerted a lot of energy in their comeback in the above mentioned game after falling behind 17-3 before winning it by a 23-20 count. Exhausting, beat up and emotionally let down are the key words here to describe the Steelers coming in this game . Meanwhile, the Ravens have the momentum of last weeks 44-20 win vs the Lions. Note: BALTIMORE is 9-1 ATS L/10 after scoring 40 points or more last game. With Joe Flacco starting to rev up, I'm betting on Ravens being a handful for the Steelers in this contest.

In his last seven games at Heinz Field, Flacco completed 64.4 percent of his passes, averaging 241.7 yards per contest with eight touchdowns and three interceptions and must be respected as an underdog in this spot.

The Steelers beat Baltimore 26-9 in the first meeting on Oct 1, but I'm betting on the revenge minded Raves making this game much closer.

NFL team vs the money line (BALTIMORE) - after a win by 10 or more points against opponent after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half are 53-13 SU  and 5-1 SU  this season.

NFL team (BALTIMORE) - off 1 or more straight overs, a good offensive team (23-27 PPG) against a good defensive team (14-18 PPG) are 63-33 ATS L/10 seasons.

Play on the Baltimore Ravens to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Eagles (10-2) had their nine-game winning streak snapped with a 24-10 loss at the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday night in a grueling physical  affair that saw key tight end Zach Ertz leave the game with a head injury. Todays battle, vs the Rams, will feature,  two of the  top  young quarterbacks selected in the 2016 NFL draft -- Rams quarterback Jared Goff (No. 1) and Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz (No. 2). With that said, m own power rankings suggest Goff has the slight edge, at home,  It must

also  be noted that its never easy for teams travelling east to west , and with this being the Rams second straight west coast road game, their at even bigger disadvantage .

Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Rams are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

NFL Home favorites (LA RAMS) - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (PHILADELPHIA) - hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, with a winning record in the second half of the season.  are just 15-42 ATS dating back 10 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Rams to cover 1 unit reg selection

Interim Giants new head coach Spagnuolo will have his demoralized team ready to play this week, as  Eli Manning, the Giants' franchise quarterback since 2004, goes back under center , after being  removed from the starting lineup by now fired McAdoo. That tilt was the first game that Manning had not participated in since Nov. 14 of his rookie season. I'm betting that will be a wakeup call for Giants, and to spur Manning from his comfort zone into in a big effort this week on his own backyard. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are banged up and  will be without suspended running back Ezekiel Elliott another week and could also be without offensive lineman La'el Collins (back), linebacker Justin Durant (concussion/illness), defensive lineman David Irving (concussion), cornerback Orlando Scandrick (back), left tackle Tyron Smith (back) and middle linebacker Sean Lee (hamstring) . Considering how pumped the Giants will be I'm betting the Cowboys in their usual inconsistent ways will not be in top form  here and the Giants come out of this with a cover. Yes, the Cowboys won last week by a 38-14 count vs the Skins, but previous to that game they scored 6,9,7 points respectively in three straight losses.

Note: Cowboys are 11-22 L/33 as road division favs. Manning in December games  when coming off consecutive losses is 13-0-1 ATS L/14 games.

NY GIANTS are 6-0 ATS  L/6 after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games.

NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY GIANTS) - revenging a loss against opponent, off a cover where the team lost as an underdog are 33-10 ATS L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. ( The Boyz pounded the Giants earlier this season by a 19-3 count)

Play on the NY Giants to cover

The Vikings (10-2)  are in a quest for  home-field advantage throughout the playoffs and mean business here today as the play a Carolina team that is good but not quite ready for another run at a Super Bowl crown and in a letdown situation after last weeks loss to New Orleans. QUOTE: "We've got four games left," Minnesota coach Mike Zimmer said. "My only thoughts are on the Carolina Panthers and trying to get a win this week. All that stuff is nice to talk about, but for us we'll go about our business." END QUOTE. The Vikings are looking extremely strong and are more than capable short road favs here that more than capable of covering the spread.

The Panthers are 0-10 ATS/SU  losing by an average of 11.45 ppg  off a loss as a dog when facing a non-divisional opponent that is scoring more than 23.5% of their points from field goals.Minnesota is 17-3 ATS L/20 after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread.MINNESOTA is 7-1 ATS  in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season.

NFL Road teams (MINNESOTA) - mistake-free team (1.25 TO/G  or less committed) vs a team with 1.25 TO/G or less forced after 8+ games, after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 38-13 ATS L/34 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Minnesota Vikings to cover

Navy after a fast start to their campaign had the wheels fall of their proverbial wagon going down the stretch as is evident by  losing, 5 of their L/6 games. Meanwhile, Army has really shown me alot this season and are one of the best groups the Cadets have had on the field in a long time. The Cadets shut out the other military academy Air Force this season, and have had this game circled on their calendars for a long time. I'm not sure they will win this game, but one thing I'm betting on is that  nothing will come easy for Navy in their current form, which gives a very motivated Army side the edge taking points. The last two games in this series were decided by identical 21-17 scores, with Army covering both times.

Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

Neutral field underdogs (ARMY) - excellent rushing team - averaging 225 or more rushing yards/game, after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 4 straight games are 22-3 ATS L/25 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Army to cover

The Saints are the real deal as is evident by having won by 9 of their L/10. The Saints had a good win vs the Panthers last time out showing me their tenacity . This is not the same one way team that Saints have put on the field in the past, and right now their clicking on all cylinders and look like a strong candidate to take out the Falcons tonight in their own backyard. The Falcons are 7-5 and recently had a three-game winning streak come to an end with a setback against Minnesota, and are now in a letdown situation at the worst possible time.


Saints are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Saints are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 vs. NFC South.Saints are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games.Falcons are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 vs. NFC.Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

NEW ORLEANS is 11-3 ATS L/14 versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more yards/game and 11-3 ATS vs. struggling passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse. ATLANTA is 6-17 ATS L/23 vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better.

NEW ORLEANS is 12-3 ATS L/15 versus division opponents and 6-0 ATS L/6 off a division game .NEW ORLEANS is 7-1 ATS as a favorite this season.


NFL Road teams (NEW ORLEANS) - mistake-free team ( 1.25 or less TO/G committed) vs a team with 1.25 or less TO/G forced after 8+ games, after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 24-4 ATS L/34 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the New Orleans to cover

The Eagles enter this game on fire having won 5 straight games by DD margins. Needless to say, the city of Philly is going wild, and  I smell a bit of irrational exuberance in the air . With that said, I'm betting the Eagles might be starting to believe the hype of their own press clippings, which suits a veteran coach like Carroll and veteran laden player group just fine in Seattle as they will be primed to spring the upset.  HC Carroll is 21-9 SU with Seattle in December games and has won and covered three straight vs NFC East opponents during this month. The Hawks QB Russell Wilson thrives in December tilts going 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS vs .666 or better opposition late in the season when the veteran seems to shine the most.

Seattle's HC Carroll is 17-4 ATS  L/21  vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing  7.5 yards or less  per return in the second half of the season in his career.

NFL Favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight are 9-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 76% for bettors.

Play on Seattle to cover 1 unit reg selection

New Orleans  (8-3) eight-game winning streak came to an abrupt end  last week in LA vs the Rams, and now they  find them selves in  a position to lose their NFC South lead as the Carolina Panthers, who are also 8-3, come into the Mercedes-Benz Superdome on Sunday looking to avenge a 34-13 loss to the Saints in Week 3.  The Panthers have won four straight games to move back into a statistical tie with the Saints atop the division, and are my pick today to get us the cover in what I'm betting will be a hard fought affair that could easily be won with a late FG. New Orleans head coach Payton knows about the freight train that is coming his way QUOTE:  ."The last four weeks, they're running the ball extremely well," he said. "Their plus-minus in the turnover ratio has flopped entirely. Defensively, you're seeing one of the better defenses in the league right now when you look at total yards, scoring -- pick a number. They're healthy and I think playing with a lot of confidence. The time of possession has been significantly in their favor as well. Certainly, in this winning stretch, they're first in the league." END QUOTE. I'll back the Saints coach here and recommend we take the points with the talented and peeking visitors.

CAROLINA is 6-0 ATS  L/6 as a road underdog of 7 points or less.CAROLINA is 9-1 ATS  after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game.NEW ORLEANS is 4-14 ATS L/18  after covering the spread in 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games.

Play on Carolina to cover 1 unit reg selection

I don't like to make it a habit laying more than a TD on the road with any NFL team, but if their are rare exceptions and  this is one of them, as I recommend we lay the lumber with the defending New England Pats this afternoon on the road in Buffalo. After a slow start to their current campaign, the Pats have seemingly got better with each progressive game, on both sides of the ball. The Pats have not allowed more than 17 points in any of their L/7 games, with opposing offenses averaging just 11.5 ppg . On offense  QB Brady and company have scored 41,33, and 35 points respectively in their three most recent tilts and are revving on all engines at the moment and ready for a huge take off. |Meanwhile, Buffalo has been wildly inconsistent this season, and in a recent home game vs New Orleans were clobbered a 47-10 count. In last years visit to Buffalo the Pats won by a 41-25 count in a game that was not as close as the score might indicate. With that said, I'm betting on a rinse and repeat situation and a conclusive Patriots win and cover. Note: The Pats covered a 17 point home favs last week, and this number even here on the road is very beatable.

Patriots are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.Patriots are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 road games.

NEW ENGLAND is 15-0 ATS   after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games with the average margin of victory coming by 16.3 ppg. 

Play on the New England Patriots to cover 1 unit reg selection

Minnesota (9-2)  is playing at a very high level and at the head of their division  and have  won seven straight games as they head south to face the Falcons (7-4) on Sunday. The Vikings have a chance at home-field advantage in the play offs and will be primed and ready to take out their hosts. QUOTE: "We've yet to accomplish everything we want to accomplish, and we've got a lot of work ahead of us, but we're hungry for it," said Case Keenum, who has earned another start this week at quarterback. "I think everybody in this locker room is hungry." END QUOTE:

The current numbers and my own power rankings suggest that Minnesota is the superior side. Minnesota is fifth in the NFL with 375.7 yards per game, while  Atlanta's some times explosive offense has recorded 373.4 yards per game. The Vikings are eighth in scoring (24.6 points per game) to the Falcons in 11th (24.1) in the league. Note: There are Two injury concerns for the Falcons that put them at a disadvantage vs the Vikings as  starting cornerbacks Brian Poole and Desmond Trufant. Both left last week's game and did not practice Wednesday. Poole is dealing with a back injury, while Trufant has a concussion.

I know Atlanta has been hot of late, but this franchise has not dealt well with success at least from a ATS perspective very well after some top tier efforts as is obvious  by their 2-17 ATS  L/19 run  in home games after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread.

ATLANTA is 6-16 ATS  L/22 vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. MINNESOTA is 8-0 ATS  L/8 off a win against a division rival.MINNESOTA is 16-3 ATS  L/19 after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread.ATLANTA is 3-15 ATS  L/18  in home games off a home win by 10 points or more which happened against TB last time out .

The Falcons are 0-10 ATS failing to cover by an average of 8.8 ppg  on turf off a game as a favorite when the line is within 3 of pick and they are averaging at least 24 points per game over their last three games. they were 2-8 SU during that ATS run with the two wins coming by 2 points and 1 point respectively.

NFL Road teams (MINNESOTA) - mistake-free team (1.25 or less TO/G committed) vs a team with 1.25 or less TO/G forced after 8+ games, after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 44-17 ATS L/34 seasons for a 72% long term conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Minnesota to cover

No. 5 Wisconsin and No. 9 Ohio State are not only playing for the conference title again this Saturday, but both programs have a opportunity to make the College Football Playoff. Needless to say this game I'm betting will be a hard fought grueling event that will see getting points as a golden opportunity. With Ohio State QB JT Barrett at less than 100% with a knee injury , I expect his team will be at a disadvantage. I know their are skeptics out there that think Wisconsin played a weak schedule this season, but going undefeated is not an easy feat and the Badgers deserve respect. With that said, look for the catalyst of a Wisconsin cover and possible upset to come from , RB Jonathan Taylor, who has run behind a massive offensive line for 1,806 yards and leads the Big Ten in rushing vs a Ohio State side that has shown many defensive deficiencies during this current campaign. note: Wisconsin also leads the Big Ten in fewest rushing yards (80.5), total yards (236.9) and points (12.0) allowed per game.

OHIO ST is 0-6 ATS L/6 off 3 straight wins against conference rivals.WISCONSIN is 7-0 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in 4 straight games ,

The underdog has won 4 of the L/6 Big 10 Championship games SU since its inception in 2011, and covered all 6 times.


CFB team (WISCONSIN) - good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG) against a good defense (280 to 330 YPG) after 7+ games, after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 26-7 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Wisconsin to cover 1 unit reg selection

ACC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Bank of American Stadium - Charlotte, NC

Miami after a great season, looked a little tired emotionally in a loss to Pittsburgh last week. Meanwhile Clemson, hammered South Carolina , solidifying their chances among the pundits at a repeat College play off appearance. However, it must be noted that .800 or better teams off a chalk loss and than going to a conference championship game are 8-0 SU and 2-0 SU/ATS as underdogs. With that said, what 'm betting happened to Miami Fl last week, was that they were in a look ahead situation, and completely overlooked their opponent .  Now wide awake and ready to compete, I'm betting they give Clemson a run for their money.  It must also be noted that national champs are 0-4 ATS L/4 in conference tilts if they are favs of 14 points or less. Add to that Mark Richts Miami program has only 1 previous loss by more than 7 points.

CLEMSON is 12-25 ATS  L/37 after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins .

Play on the Miami Fl to cover

ACC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Bank of American Stadium - Charlotte, NC

Miami after a great season, looked a little tired emotionally in a loss to Pittsburgh last week. Meanwhile Clemson, hammered South Carolina , solidifying their chances among the pundits at a repeat College play off appearance. However, it must be noted that .800 or better teams off a chalk loss and than going to a conference championship game are 8-0 SU and 2-0 SU/ATS as underdogs. With that said, what 'm betting happened to Miami Fl last week, was that they were in a look ahead situation, and completely overlooked their opponent .  Now wide awake and ready to compete, I'm betting they give Clemson a run for their money.  It must also be noted that national champs are 0-4 ATS L/4 in conference tilts if they are favs of 14 points or less. Add to that Mark Richts Miami program has only 1 previous loss by more than 7 points.

CLEMSON is 12-25 ATS  L/37 after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins .

Play on the Miami Fl to cover

This is  a Troy football program (9-2) that took a big fat cheque from LSU earlier this season to play against them in their own back yard. They not only took that money but they took a SU win as DD dogs.So needless to say this Trojans team is not easily intimidated. With the added revenge factor for Troy as they look to get payback for a  ugly loss last year by a 35-3 count, to this same Arkansas State program (7-3), you can bet your bottom dollar we are backing a motivated and talented side on a current 5 game win streak..

TROY is 9-1 ATS  L/10 after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games/

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TROY) - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival, with 4+ more total starters returning than opponent are 30-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Troy to cover

AAC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Spectrum Stadium - Orlando, FL

The difference between Memphis and UCF comes down to defense. Both can score in bunches, but only one of these teams has something that resembles a defense, and that is the Knights. In their head to head meeting on Sept30 all the intangibles were on display ,    as UCF punished the Tigers 40-13 in an easy win. The Knights not only ran up 603 yards of total offense to the 396 of the Tigers, but they came up with four takeaways while giving the ball away only once. While some might think revenge is key here in a possible cover for Memphis, and competitive showing or upset, it must also be noted that revenge minded sides, in conference championship tilts are 0-6 SU L/6 when taking on a .916 or better opponent while failing to cover 5 of 6 times. The host in this series is 6-0 ATS L/6 , and I'm betting on the 7th straight cover today and UCF is a perfect 10-0 L/10 SU in this series and have covered 5 straight at home vs Memphis.

Play on UCF to cover 1 unit reg selection

PAC 12 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Levis Stadium - Santa Clara, AZ

Stanford according to my own data and power rankings have gotten better as this season, has progressed, and are better prepared for a USC team that handily beat them in their first meeting this season in week 2 action. the Cardinal have only lost one game by more than 3 points in their L/18 games overall, and the above mentioned tilt was it.

More recently the Cardinal proved their prowess with a 38-20 win vs a very good Notre Dame Irish side at the Farm last week. Meanwhile, USC rested and prepared for this tilt. However, it must be noted that rested sides in conference championship tilts are just 3-8 ATS L/11 vs a side looking for revenge.

On the season, the Trojans are averaging only 2.5 ppg more than the Cardinal , and from a  cross reference power ranking standpoint are dead even with their underdog foes, making Stanford a viable side to back.

The Cardinal HC Shaw is 9-0 SU L/14 when getting points . Cardinal are also 7-0 SU/ATS in conference championship game after winning PAC12 North. USC is 2-8 ATS L/10 Neutral site games.USC is 1-8 ATS L/9 in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  75% or better.)STANFORD is 21-8 ATS L/29 in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging  450 yards/game or more.STANFORD is 31-8 ATS  after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better, which happened vs the Irish last week.

Play on Stanford to cover 

The Dallas Cowboys and Washington Redskins are two teams still vying for a wild card spot and this game is important to both teams chances. In their first meeting this season Dallas beat up on the Skins by a 33-19 count. Now with revenge, on board for that defeat they have a good chance of getting their payback with  RB Ezekiel Eliiott  out of the Cowboys lineup because of suspension. The Boyz are 0-3 ATS since star back  was sidelined, and have gained an average of  just 246 YPG in those tilts, and are fade material here because of their ineptness.

WASHINGTON is 13-3 ATS  L/16 vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last few seasons. DALLAS is 0-6 ATS  L/6  in home games after scoring 14 points or less last game which happened last time out vs the LA Chargers ina ugly DD home loss.DALLAS is 0-6 ATS  L/6  in home games after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game . Cowboys HC Garrett is 6-24 ATS  L/30 in home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse  and is  1-9 ATS  L/10  in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season .

Play on the Washington Redskins to cover 1 unit reg selection

 The Baltimore Ravens under HC John Harbaugh , have gone 11-1 SU in night games -- the best mark in the NFL. The Ravens have also won nine consecutive prime-time matchups, also the longest streak in the NFL.Joe Flacco the Baltimore Ravens QB loves to perform under the prime time lights when at home , and is 12-1 SU in those tilts. Flacco has been a  TD plus fav 36 times in his career and 32-3 SU in those games and should once again thrive vs a Hosuton D ranked 32nd in the NFL vs the pass. it must also be noted that  Baltimore looked good last time out getting shut out win vs Green Bay 23-0 and are well positioned to take out another team with QB problems. Meanwhile, the visiting  Texans are trying to be competitive after losing starting quarterback Deshaun Watson, who suffered a season-ending knee injury in practice earlier this month . Houston is  just 2-8 SU on Mondays and 1-9 ATS and look very much like fade material in this spot. The Texans did beat a lethargic looking Arizona group last time out, but I'm betting their fortunes will be reversed this evening. BALTIMORE is 11-2 ATS  L/13  in home games after a win by 21 or more points. BALTIMORE is 4-0 SU L/4 at home in this series.

Play on Baltimore to cover

The Seattle Seahawks enter this game banged up with multiple injuries, and on a short weeks rest after playing Monday night in a 34-31 home loss to the Atlanta Falcons. Meanwhile, San Francisco last time out pulled off their first win of the season, and than went on their bye week. Now well rested and with confidence and momentum on their sides I'm betting they give the Hawks more than they may have bargained for. Note: In their first meeting this season Seattle pulled off a 12-9 sleep fest failing to cover as -13.5 point chalk.

Historical trend:The Niners are 11-1 ATS L/12 off a victory vs .500 or better side off a Monday night tilt.

NFL Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a lower tier team ( 25% or less ) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season are 55-23 L/34 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the SF 49ers to cover 1 unit reg selection

Carolina except for a few glitches this season has looked a like a solid contender in the NFC and must be respected on this line. The Panthers have played their best defensive football on the road this season and held their L/5 hosts to  a season low in yards and have covered 5 of their L/6 away tilts. Both teams are rested so their no advantage for either team from that perspective. The only advantage comes via what  is on paper and so far this season on the playing field  is the super side. Hit it with CAROLINA.

The Jets have lost 12 straight  and 1-15 ATS L/16 after a road game in which they allowed at least 7.5 points fewer than their season-to-date average and they are not a double-digit dog .

CAROLINA is 33-13 ATS L/46 when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) in the second half of the season.

 NFL Favorites of -160 to -475 vs. the money line (CAROLINA) - average passing team (5.9-6.7 PY/Att.) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PY/Att.) are 29-2 winning by an average of 10.8 ppg which qualifies as an  viable ATS trend on this chalk line.

Play on Carolina to cover

The Tennessee Titans will  bring with them a  nine-year losing streak at Lucas Oil Stadium when they visit the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday afternoon losing SU  9 straight times .Both teams will be well rested entering the Week 12 matchup. The Colts are coming off a bye and have not played since Nov. 12, when they lost 20-17 to the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Titans will play on  nine days' rest after a Thursday night matchup in Week 11 in which they were embarrassed in a 40-17 loss to the Steelers, and showed me their an over rated team . Meanwhile, Colts quarterback Jacoby Brissett is expected to make his 10th start. He began the week in the NFL's concussion protocol . The Indy man under center has actually been impressive and has allowed his team to cover 3 straight games.  It must also be noted that the Colts are 10-0 ATs L/10 in the first of consecutive divisional games. I know the Titans took the first meeting between these teams but with revenge on board I'm betting in a reversal of fortunes.

TENNESSEE is 0-8 ATS  L/8 when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season.TENNESSEE is 0-7 ATS L/7  in road games vs. struggling  teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season. TENNESSEE is 0-8 ATS  L/8 vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season.INDIANAPOLIS is 9-0 ATS  L/9 after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games. TENNESSEE is 8-23 ATS (L/31 against conference opponents. TENNESSEE is 6-15 ATS  L/21 in road lined games.

NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (INDIANAPOLIS) - revenging a loss against opponent, off a cover where the team lost as an underdog are 33-10 ATS L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Indianapolis to cover 1 unit reg selection

LSU showed me their vulnerabilities when they lost to Troy on Sept. 30 to fall to 3-2 on the season. I know they have played much better of late, but I'm still not sold on HC Ed Orgeron and company . Meanwhile, Texas A&M coach Kevin Sumlin is on the hot seat and really needs a win and a competitive showing here today. QUOTE: "I came here to Texas A&M to win football games," Sumlin said. "What we do and how we've done it has been the right way. It will continue to be the right way."END QUOTE. He is a quality coach and top tier recruiter, and I respect his abilities a lot, and I'm betting he has the Aggies ready to compete tonight vs a opponent that despite of a recent 5-0 ATS run is just 4 -16 ATS at home as a favorite off a win.

LSU is 2-10 ATS  L/12  in home games after 3 or more consecutive wins .

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points like Texas A&M - after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 67-31 ATS  L/10 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Texas A&M to cover 1 unit reg selection

Last season Oregon State took out Oregon by a 34-24 count in their last game of the season, which resulted on the Ducks not getting a bowl bid.  It was ugly, and the boosters were in a nasty mood. Now with redemption at hand, and the no mercy rule, thrown out, I expect the Ducks to come out here looking to annihilate their opponent. When their top tier QB Justin Herbert has been under center this season the Ducks average around 48 points per game in offense, as was the case last week in a beat down of  pretty good looking Arizona side by a 48-28 count.  I expect at least that many points today for Oregon in a complete game one sided victory vs the beavers 118 ranked D, that is allowing 466 YPG.

OREGON ST is 0-6 ATS  L/6  in road games after being outrushed by 150 or more yards last game  losing SU by an average of 28.6 ppg.

Play on Oregon to cover 1 unit reg selection

Georgia Southern after being completely asleep at the proverbial wheel, all season long, finally woke up last week, and decided to go on a rampage by destroying South Alabama by a 52-0 count as underdogs. Now behind a revived running game that averaged 5.4 ypg last week,  I expect they use the momentum of that win to come out and take down another opponent. Needless to say , interim HC Chad Lundsford ability to wake these kids from their naps, makes me  feel confident they can answer the bell again vs a UL Lafayette football program that has been highly inconsistent this season and just 2-2 in their L/4 overall. With that said,  I'm recommending we take the points . Note: UL Lafayette is just 3-13 ATS L/16 as home favorites.

By the way I know the Georgia Southern D, has been porous at times this season, but LA LAFAYETTE is just  3-13 ATS  L/16   in home games versus struggling defensive teams - allowing  6.25 or more  yards/play  and 7-18 ATS  L/25  in home games when playing against a lower tier team with a win % of .250 or less.

LA LAFAYETTE is 1-11 ATS  L/12  in home games after a game with a turnover margin of +2.

CFB  Road underdogs like Georgia Southern  - with a lower tier defense - allowing 6.1 or more yards/play, after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 80-35 ATS L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Georgia Southern to cover

In between some ugly performances Rutgers has actually played some decent ball this season, and from time to time have looked competitive as wins vs Purdue, Illinois, and Maryland would suggest. Meanwhile, their visiting opponents the  Spartans are not the type of team that crushes their opponents, against even those sides that have looked inferior , and  have no wins of 10 points or more in conference play this season. I'm betting Rutgers elevates their game looking for an upset and DAntonio and company do what they do best, grind out a slow sleepy win.  With that said ,I'm recommending we take the points.

MICHIGAN ST is 0-7 ATS  L/7 when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%). MICHIGAN ST is 0-8 ATS  L/8 as a road favorite .MICHIGAN ST is 4-15 ATS  L/19  in road games after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games.

CFB home team vs. the money line like RUTGERS - off 2 consecutive road losses, with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent are 29-4 SU L/10 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB home team vs. the money line like Rutgers - off a road blowout loss by 28 points or more, with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent are 30-6 SU L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Rutgers to cover 1 unit reg selection

It must be noted that this Alabama group is banged up right now with key defensive deficiencies. Yes, the Tide are deep and another 5 star recruit takes over for the injured player, but theirs a reason why  one guy got the start over the other guy.  Needless to say, as was the case last week against Mississippi State , the Tide, are currently short handed, and their offense is still not as fluid as it needs to be and must add they are not unbeatable. Despite of my great respect for the Tide, the Auburn football program they play today, are hitting their stride, and looking very much like  a contender for the National Championship. Since their early season hard fought loss to Clemson, the offense has jelled ,  and comes in on a roll, scoring 40 points or more in seven of its last eight games.The Auburn defensive front has also been amazing,  and are run stoppers extroidnare – as was the case vs Georgia ( 46 yards) and have not allowed 200  rushing yards on the year – and their secondary is equally brilliant as was evident against stud QB Nick Fitzgerald and the Mississippi State as they held him  under a  35% completion rate. In a tilt that could mark a changing in the guard in the SEC , I'm betting Auburn gets us the cover, and are a strong candidate to do the unthinkable , get the outright upset vs Alabama. This game has the feel of a late FG decision, making getting points with Auburn a viable investment option.

AUBURN is 14-1 ATS  L/15  in home games vs. very good defensive teams who give up 14 or less points/game and 10-1 ATS  L/11  in home games vs. incredible defensive teams who give up 12 or less points/game.

Nick Saban in his history as a coach has never beaten a .750 or better Auburn squad going 0-4 SU lifetime.

CFB home underdogs like Auburn  that have scored 40 or more points in each of their L/3 tilts, and facing a team off a win by 3 or more points are a bankroll expanding 20-4 ATS L/27 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB home team vs. the money line like AUBURN - an excellent offensive team (34 PPG or more) against an excellent defensive team (16 PPG or less) after 7+ games, after scoring 37 points or more in 2 straight games are 25-6 for a 81% conversion rate dating back 25 seasons.

Play on the Auburn Tigers to cover 1 unit reg selection

Both starting  QBs for Boston College and their hosts Syracuse are expected to miss todays game. Boston without  QB Anthony Brown have proven over an over again,  that without him under center , moving the ball is like moving a 2000lb rock, which I'm betting will be their downfall today. Add to that Boston College already has a Bowl game locked up, and probably looking ahead to greener pastures , and you have a situation where the home dog will be motivated to prove they are better than some of their recent results suggest and finish off their season on a high note in front of their own alumni. Note: With Dungey out a QB for the Orange , they will concentrate on pounding the ball on the ground, and with that said,  it must be noted that BC has allowed 5 ypc, this season and are vulnerable via the opposing ground game.

BC has covered on 5 of their L/21 as a road fav vs a team off consecutive losses.

CFB home team vs. the money line like Syracuse - off a road blowout loss by 28 points or more, with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent are 30-6 SU L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. ( Louisville clobbered Syracuse 56-10 last time out) .\

Play on Syracuse to cover 1 unit reg selection

HC Mike Riley is most likely on the way out of the door at Nebraska. However, the old ball coach has a little something left in his proverbial tank, and I'm betting he motivates his downtrodden team to a cover here at home, vs a Iowa football program, that looks to be living on their laurels of a recent upset win vs Ohio State. Since that monumental win the Hawkeyes have lost two straight and have been outscored by a combined 62-29 count. I know Nebraska has also lost two straight but in the past have proven resilient from a ATS standpoint cashing 13 of his L/14 after consecutive losses.

NEBRASKA is 29-9 ATS  L/38 after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games.NEBRASKA is 15-3 ATS L/18 after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more last game.NEBRASKA is 21-8 ATS  L/29 after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last game. ( Last week the Cornhuskers lost 55-44 to Penn State)

Play on Nebraska to cover 1 unit reg selection

South Florida (9-1)  and UCF (10-0) according to my own power rankings and cross reference matchup systems  are very evenly matched and  the point spread should be much closer to  a one possession spread . With the pressure of staying undefeated a deterrent for UCF, this situation  also offers up an opportunity for a strong dog to pull off what would not be a surprising upset. South Florida has conclusively beaten UCF in their L/2 meetings, and today I'm betting they get us the cover on a bloated line again.

My own projections estimate that S.Florida will score between 22-28 points which is a good omen , considering the Bulls are 16-4 ATS L/20  in road games when they score 22 to 28 points.

CFB Road underdogs like SOUTH FLORIDA - in a game involving two excellent rushing teams (4.8 YPR or more), after gaining 6 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 87-37 L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Road underdogs like SOUTH FLORIDA - after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread, in a game involving two top-level teams ( 80% or better ) are 25-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

South Florida to cover 1 unit reg selection

After watching a motivated  victory crumble  into a crushing overtime defeat Sunday at New Orleans, the Redskins come into this game in an emotional let down situation, and are now at a disadvantage vs a NY Giants team off a rousing OT win vs KC last week. Add to that the redskins are banged up , After placing four players on injured reserve Tuesday,  and  will not even attempt a full practice before the game.  You can smell trouble brewing on the field for them this week. Look for Eli Manning and company  who is  17-8 SU  as a starter against Washington to be a catalyst this week. He has completed 493 of 841 passes (59 percent) for 5,934 yards with 28 touchdowns and 23 interceptions vs. the Redskins. He will go against a   Redskins' defense has fallen to 31st in points allowed per game.

NY GIANTS are 7-0 ATS   vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. in the second half of the season dating back a few seasons.WASHINGTON is 13-28 ATS  L/41 as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.

The Redskins are 0-18 ATS L/18 as a FG-plus favorite when they are off a road game and facing a team that has forced 4.5 or fewer punts per game. Five of those 18 games were straight up wins , with only two coming by 3 points.

The Giants are 14-0 ATS  and 12-2 SU off a home game in which they rushed the ball at least ten more times than their season-to-date average.

NFL Underdogs or pick like the Giants - after going under the total by more than 21 points in their previous game, struggling team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 50-23 ATS L/24 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NY Giants to cover

Chargers HC Lynn, who played high school football at Texas small-town powerhouse Celina and college football at Texas Tech, said it's one of the two biggest days in the NFL season. So you can imagine how hopped up he is to be here and what a win would mean to him vs the banged up staggering Cowboys. Los Angeles has won four of its last six, and playing at a high level and must be respected here a short road favorites. Meanwhile, Dallas Star running back Ezekiel Elliott (suspension), All-Pro left tackle Tyron Smith (back, groin) and the most important part  of the defense, linebacker Sean Lee (hamstring), are all out of the lineup making Dallas fade material today.

LA CHARGERS is 8-1 ATS L/9  in road games after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games.DALLAS is 0-6 ATS    in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games losing SU by an average of 10 ppg.

Chargers are 2-0 SU/ATS L/2 visits to Dallas.

NFL Home teams like Dallas - good rushing team - averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry, after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game are 16-41 ATS L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on LA Chargers to cover

The Detroit Lions were the last team to beat the red hot Minnesota Vikings, back in in Minnesota on Oct 1 ( 14-7). The Lions matchup well against the Vikings according to my own power rankings, as Detroit is bidding for its third sweep of the season series in four years. I'm recommending we take the points with the home team here today on thanksgiving day.

DETROIT is 8-1 ATS L/9 in November games over the last few seasons.MINNESOTA is 26-43 ATS  L/69 as a road favorite.

The Lions are 12-0 ATS/SU  on turf when the line is within 3 of pick and they are off a win in which they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards winning SU by an average of 9.17 ppg and covering by more than 8.79 ppg.

The Vikings are 0-14 ATS / 3-11 SU on the road off a TD-plus win in which they did not score in the first quarter with the 3 SU   wins coming by 3, 3 and 4 points.

NFL team LIONS- mistake-free team ( 1.25 TO/G  or less committed) vs a team with 1.25 TO/G  or less forced after 8+ games, after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 39-15 ATS for a 72% conversion rate for bettors dating back 24 seasons.

Play on the Detroit Lions to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Dallas Cowboys cannot really afford another loss, at this juncture of the season, and will be hell bent on taking out the red hot Philadelphia Eagles this Sunday night deep in the heart of Texas. Add to that the Cowboys have revenge on board for last seasons divisional play off loss, to these same Eagles and you have a hyped up and desperate side to back.  It must be noted that the Cowboys are 7-0 ATS L/7 on  Sundays playing with revenge with 6 of those games SU victories and are 31-16 ATS L/47 as home dogs.

PHILADELPHIA is 0-6 ATS  L/6  in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65  or more yards/play.DALLAS is 34-18 ATS L/52 after a loss by 14 or more points which happened last time out.

NFL Road favorites like Philadelphia  - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after leading in their previous game by 21 or more points at the half are 19-45 ATS L/34 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.  

Play on the Dallas Cowboys to cover 1 unit reg selection

TB look like viable bets here as they come off a 15-10 win vs the Jets last week. I expect them to carry that  confidence of that victory here this week, into this tilt vs a Miami side that has been outgained in 7 of its L/9 games by an average of 66 ypg. The Fins are worse than their 4-5 record, and must not be over estimated in their ability to cover or win here even at home. The Fish have failed to cover 5 straight in this series, and are 1-8 ATS overall. Look for Buccaneer B Ryan Fitzpatrick to  just enough to get team to the promised land in game of two downtrodden sides.

MIAMI is 3-12 ATS  L/15 after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game .TAMPA BAY is 8-1 ATS  L/9 in weeks 10 through 13 over the last few seasons.TAMPA BAY is 17-6 ATS  L/23 in road games after having lost 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games .

NFL team vs the money line like Miami - with a poor offense - averaging 4.8 or less yards/play, after allowing 500 or more total yards in their previous game are just 3-29  SU dating back 24 seasons for a go against SU conversion rate of 91% for bettors.

NFL Home teams like Miami - off a road loss, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25-40%) are 18-51 ATS since 1983 for a go against conversion rate of 74% for bettors.

Play on Tampa Bay to cover 1 unit reg selection

Its taken me some time to be persuaded that the Rams are for real. Well this week, I've finally come to the conclusion they are. After consistently beating up on opponents  winning 4 straight and outscoring their L/3 opponents by a 117- 24 count their cross reference power rankings have skyrocketed.  With that said I;m sold on the Rams abilities and will back them today vs a what I still believe is a over rated Minnesota Vikings group that showed some vulnerabilities defensively last week by allowing Washington to put 30 points on the board against them.  I'm also betting Case Keenum  the upstart QB of the Vikings does not matchup well against this Rams smash mouth defense very well, and could find himself on his back quite a bit this week.

NFL team vs the money line like the LA Rams - good offensive team - scoring 24 or more points/game, after allowing 17 points or less in 4 straight games are 25-2 SU L/5 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Rams to cover 1 unit reg selection

Nevada owns a 2-8 record on the season, thanks in part to what must be considered an atrocious defense, especially on the road where they have allowed an average of 40.4 ppg.  The Wolfpacks only saving grace has been a sometimes explosive offense, but today against a very strong San Diego State D, allowing an average of just 18.8 ppg their in big trouble vs a team that is 18-0 SU and   12-1 ATS L/13 when playing against a team with a losing record , with he average score clicking in at SD St 37.4 opposition 8.5.  Add to that Rocky Longs, great late season runs of late that have seen him go 9-0 SU 8-0-1 ATS in his L/4 games of the season when coming off a DD ATS win which happened last time out in a 52-7 ATS blasting of San Jose State. No mercy rule in effect here tonight.

CFB road team vs. the money line like Nevada - cold team, after having lost 8 or more out of their last 10 games against opponent after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games are 1-34 SU losing SU by an average of 26.1 ppg.

 CFB  home team vs. the money line like San Diego State - team outrushing opponents by 80+ YPG against a team who is outrushed by 50+ YPG after 7+ games, after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game are 29-1 SU winning by an average of 24.2 ppg.

Play on the San Diego State Aztecs to cover 1 unit reg selection

No. 19 North Carolina State  wants this game badly and  is on the verge of something special if they can get a 9 win season, stay in the top 25 and garner a big pay day with a top tier Bowl appearance. Needless to say North Carolina State is very motivated entering this tilt against a over rated Wake Forest program that despite of a explosive 64-43  win last week, vs Syracuse still allowed a whopping 621 yards on defense, and in the game before that allowed 710 yards to Notre Dame. I just don't like them today vs a a football program that has owned them of late winning three straight SU/ATS by an average of 22 points per game and are 8-1 L/9 in this series when the Deacons are off a win. I'm also betting on Wake Forest to be in an emotional letdown state , after last week astounding come back win.

WAKE FOREST is 0-7 ATS  L/7 after 5 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers.

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 like Wake Forest - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games are 8-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 like the Demon Deacons - in a game involving two good rushing teams (4.3 to 4.8 YPR) after 7+ games are 13-44 ATS for a76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on N.C State to cover 1 unit reg selection

I've kept an eye on Old Dominion , as I have been looking for improvement over the season, and I can see their on a upward trajectory. Last week vs FIU as DD road dogs, they took a 37-30 win in a game they actually dominated despite of the slight 7 point difference. The Monarchs freshman QB  Steven Williams, continues to improve as their starting QB was injured earlier in the season. He had a 168 yards rushing, and 3 TDS in last weeks game, and give Old dominion the edge this week, vs a Rice team that can be best described as futile, allowing 40 or more points in 5 of their L/6 games. Note:OLD DOMINION is 7-0 ATS  L/7 vs. very bad defensive teams who give up 34 or more points/game Last year winning SU by an average of 13.7 ppg. the Owls lost to the Monarchs by a 45-42 count as 7 point favorites, and look like weak dogs this week vs a Old Dominion side that is 16-0 SU L/16 as chalk, and 10--1-1 L/12 against the spread.

CFB Road underdogs like Rice - lower tier team - outscored by opponents by 10 or more points/game, after 2 straight games where 70 total points or more were scored are 6-26 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Old Dominion to cover 1 unit reg selection

After back to back losses to Miami Fl and Georgia Tech I'm sure this Virginia Tech Hokies group feels downtrodden. With really nothing left o play for I cannot see them performing at optimal speed here today giving credence to my recommendation on taking a Pittsburgh team that needs a win badly to get a Bowl invite. In the past no matter which team has been better at the time, it seems the Panthers have found a way to be competitive as their 9-1 ATS and 6-3 SU record in this series would indicate. Overall Pittsburghs been a tough out on the road of late cashing 6 of their L/7 away as dogs, and are 6-2 ATS L/8 as conference dogs of 13 points or more,.

CFB road team like Pittsburgh - after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game against opponent after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are  95-45 ATS L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors .

Play on Pittsburgh to cover 1 unit reg selection

E.Carolina has struggled for most of this season , thanks to a defense, that has allowed 45 ppg  during their 2017 campaign , and also a  offense that has generated just 23.8 ppg. I know visiting Cincinnati may not inspire bettors but this is a very winnable game for them. The Bearcats have shown life,  and some upward trajectory in games vs Navy, SMU and a recent upset win vs Tulane, and are a viable side to back in this tilt of downtrodden sides. In other words , the lesser of two evils, is the choice here today. ( Lay the FG with the Bearcats)

E CAROLINA is 2-10 ATS  vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 yards or less per return losing SU by an average of  11.2 ppg.

E CAROLINA is 1-10 ATS  L/11 when the total is greater than or equal to 63 and 0-7 ATS  in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 63.E CAROLINA is 2-12 ATS  L/14 against conference opponents and 0-6 ATS  L/6 in November games .E CAROLINA is 0-9 ATS L/9after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like E.Carolina  - after playing a game at home, in weeks 10 through 13 are just 13-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Cincinnati Bearcats to cover 1 unit reg selection

Texas since their ugly opening loss to Maryland have steadily improved under Tom Herman, and I don't think we have seen them at their very best quite yet and could easily see them in top form today as they need one more win to secure a bowl bid. Meanwhile,  West Virginia already has a bowl game in their December plans,  and may not be as motivated as their opponents. With that said, I'm betting we have an edge vs a W.Virginia side that has  not faired well as home chalk of late vs .500 or above conference  opposition  going 3-11 ATS . Meanwhile, the LongHorns HC Herman is 8-1 ATS L/7 as a underdog lifetime and has covered 11 of his L/13 vs a power 5 football programs and proved their metal in a recent road win vs Iowa State a home win vs KState, and two hard fought close losses to Oklahoma State by 3 points and a 5 point loss to Oklahoma. Note: My own projections tell me Texas will score 22 points or more, which is a good omen, as TEXAS is 6-0 ATS  L/6 when they score 22 to 28 points over the last few seasons.

 CFB road team like the Longhorns - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival, with 4+ more total starters and an experienced QB returning against team with new QB are 32-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Texas to cover 1 unit reg selection

Western Kentucky does not look like the powerhouse it has been over the last few seasons, but Middle Tennessee State according to my own cross reference power ranking suggest that neither are the Blue raiders. Both sides have identical records . I know that Midd Tenn State has won 2 straight games convincingly , but those were against lowly UTEP and Charlotte. Meanwhile, W.Kentucky played Vanderbilt and Marshall very tough in back to back games, and despite of losing were looking better than the pundits might have you expect. Yes, the Hilltoppers as mentioned above may not be as potent some of their past incarnations, but are very viable home underdogs in this spot and have more than 50% chance of pulling off a straight up win.

MIDDLE TENN ST is 1-9 ATS  L/10 after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins  

W.Kentucky is 6-2 ATS L/8 at home while Midd Tenn State is 1-6 ATS L/7 CUSA road tilts.

W KENTUCKY is 22-8 ATS  L/30 vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game.

Play on Western Kentucky to cover 1 unit reg selection

Tennessee enters this game with 4 straight wins as does their hosts the Pittsburgh Steelers. but according to my own cross reference power rankings and head to head matchup stats the Steelers are superior side.

 Steelers HC Tomlin is 13-3 ATS L/16 in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points with the average score clicking in at Steelers 27.8 opposition 18 . That number is very close to my own projections which makes the Steelers in my humble opinion a viable wagering option in this spot.

It must also be noted that Thursday night favs are 18-0 SU L/18 and 16-1-1 ATS in a non division tilt with a total of 41 or more attached to it.

Tennessee is 1-6-2 ATS L/9 vs NFC north opposition, and  their QB Marcus Mariota is just 1-7 ATS away L/8 off a win.

 
TENNESSEE is 0-7 ATS L/7 vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season.TENNESSEE is 0-8 ATS L/8 after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game losing SU by an average of 12.9 ppg.

NFL Underdogs or pick like Tennessee - after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 12-36 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Pittsburgh Steelers to cover 1 unit reg selection

Eastern Michigan thanks to a usually staunch D,  has been very competitive all season long, and must not be underestimated as dog this Wednesday night despite of a sub par 3-7 record. Meanwhile, Miami O, despite of a 6-4 record has been very inconsistent this season, as recent losses vs downtrodden Kent State and Bowling Green demonstrates.

HC of E. Michigan Creighton is 8-0 ATS  L/8  in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing  7.5 yards or less per return.E MICHIGAN is 6-0 ATS L/6 as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points and 8-1 ATS L/9 as a road underdog.

CFB Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Miami Ohio - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are just 15-43 ATS the L/10 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 74% for bettors.

Play on  Eastern Michigan to cover  1 unit reg selection

The Cowboys enter this game against the Falcons having won three in a row–all by double-digits and by a combined 55 points. I was not a believer in them for much of this season, but mind is changing quickly. Even without star running back  Elliott( if he does not get another injunction on his suspension) are still a team to be reckoned with, as QB Dak Prescott has proven immune to a sophomore jinx. The Atlanta team the Cowboys are playing are not the same team that made it to last years Super Bowl and the team as whole is struggling, especially on offense which is a surprise. The Falcons have   been held to less than 20 points  four times in their L/8 games, which is not a good omen vs a Dallas D, that not allowed more than 19 points in their L/3 games. Take the points.

Atlanta HC Quinn is 4-16 ATS  L/20 vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. HC Garrett is 6-0 ATS  L/6 after outrushing opponent by 50 or more yards in 3 straight games.

Cowboys are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a ATS win.Cowboys are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games on grass.Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

NFL Home teams like Atlanta - good rushing team (4.5 YPR or more) against a team with an average rushing defense (3.5 to 4.5 YPR), after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game are just 6-26 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 81% for bettors.

Play on the Dallas Cowboys to cover 1 unit reg selection

The San Diego Chargers have been extremely competitive all season long, and were within striking distance against the New England Pats last time out losing by 8 points, which ended a three game win streak. Now off a bye week, I'm betting the Chargers will be extremely recharged and competitive this week, and could even spring the out right upset against a  Dr. Jekyll  and Mr. Hyde Jacksonville Jags side. I know the Jags are off two impressive DD wins but they have not been good bets in the past after those type of results as is obvious  by the following trends. JACKSONVILLE is 2-10 ATS  L/12 after 2 straight wins by 10 or more points and 4-14 ATS   after allowing 200 or less total yards in their previous game.

LA CHARGERS is 11-2 ATS L/13  in road games vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game after 8+ games .

Chargers are 7-2 SU/ATS L/9 meetings in this series and 2-0 SU/ATS in the 2 most recent meetings over the L/3 seasons.Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a win.

Chargers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like the Chargers - off a road loss, a lower tier team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 108-61 ATS dating back 34 seasons for a long term 64% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road teams like the Chargers - off a road loss, in November games are 69-35 ATS L/10 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Chargers to cover 1 unit reg selection

Tennessee has been playing better ball of late winning three straight, but they have not always dealt well with success in the past,  even when playing against lower tier teams  and have been less than successful from a ATS perspective, as the following data/trends will explain.TENNESSEE is 0-7 ATS  L/7 when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season dating back a few seasons and  1-14 ATS L/15 against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game in the second half of the season and  0-6 ATS  L/6 vs. poor punt coverage teams, allowing  12 or more yards per return . In their history this franchise has continually under achieved for their betting backers going just 14-32 ATS  L/46 times as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. Tonight I'm betting on a fast improving Bengals side that has quietly won 3 of their L/5 games to not go down without a fight here and get us the all important cover.

TENNESSEE is 8-21 ATS  L/29 against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.Titans are 11-36-4 ATS in their last 51 vs. AFC.Titans are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games in November.Bengals are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games on grass.Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings

NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like the Bengals - with a poor offense - averaging 285 or less total yards/game, after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game are 70-36 ATS dating back 34 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road teams like Cincinnati- off a road loss, in November games are 69-35 ATS L/10 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Cincinnati Bengals to cover 1 unit reg selection

Lions are off a big win on Monday night football vs GB and on short rest,  could easily be in a letdown spot vs a side I'm sure their not getting up for. I know Cleveland does not inspire bettors, but they are off a bye week and on fresh legs and must not be underestimated in their ability to cover this line. It must be noted that Lions are 0-6 ATs L/6 against rested opposition with a less than .500 record, and have FAILED to cover 16 of their L/23 as 8 or more point chalk. Considering 0-5 or worse NFL teams are 18-3-1 ATS L/22 in games following a bye week, I'm betting we have value with this ugly dog. So folks, please just plug your noses, hold your breath and take the points with the Browns this Sunday.

NFL Road teams like the Browns - poor offensive team - scoring 17 or less points/game, after allowing 30 points or more last game are 49-19 ATS L/10 seasons for a 72%conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road underdogs or pick like Cleveland  - after 6 or more consecutive losses, in weeks 10 through 13 are 35-10 ATS L/34 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Cleveland Browns to cover 1 unit reg selection

Oklahoma  now 8-1 on the season showed themselves to be one of the most potent offensive teams in the Big 12 last week and maybe the nation as they went into Stillwater and took a 62-52 shootout affair vs Oklahoma State.  While some teams might tank after an emotional slugfest like that I'm betting instead the Sooners will be motivated to get the win here tonight as they look to make up for a shocking loss to a Iowa State side, that they may have under estimated, back on Oct 7. A victory here for Oklahoma vs a 8-1 TCU program ,that also lost to Iowa State 14-7, will also pad their resume, as both  the Sooners and Horned Frogs must still be considered outside contenders for the national championship play off. Another loss for either team and their dream is over, so this is a must win situation for both sides.  Here  in their own building in front of  what will be a frenzied home crowd I feel the Sooners have the edge.

 By the way folks I respect TCU and their vaunted D a great deal, but theirs an old adage, that goes something like this . Defense wins championships , but  offense win games. Whether you agree or feel this statement is irrelevant  or not.... I still say- Advantage Sooners  via the arm of Baker Mayfield and the nations best offensive line.

OKLAHOMA is 8-1 ATS  L/9 when playing against a team with a winning record , with the average margin of victory coming by an average of 16.3 ppg.OKLAHOMA is 6-0 ATS  L/6 after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs. TCU is 2-11 ATS  L/13 in games played on a grass field, losing by an average of 9.4 ppg.

CFB Home favorites like Oklahoma  - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP), after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games are 45-19 ATS L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB home team vs. the money line like the Sooners - an excellent offensive team (34 PPG or more ) against an excellent defensive team (16 PPG or less), after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 52-17 SU L/25 seasons with the average combined margin of victory coming by 11.5 ppg,( 33.4 to 24.7)

Play on Oklahoma Sooners to cover

Missouri has beaten up on three straight teams, two of them came against lower tier opponents UConn and Idaho, and the last time out against a Florida Gators program that looks like they have given up on their season. Previous to that they lost 4 straight against better programs , like Auburn, Georgia, Purdue, and Kentucky. Meanwhile as bad as Tennessee has been they have been competitive for the most part this season, and matchup well vs a defenseless one way Missouri squad that depends on their offense alone to win games. Only Alabama has put more than 29 points on the board in their L/8 vs the Vols ,a D that is  capable of slowing down Missouri in this spot.  I know old Rocky Top might not inspire bettors this season, but my own numbers and projections  suggest this game is settled by a TD or less making this a viable underdog betting situation.

TENNESSEE is 18-7 ATS  L/25 vs. bad defensive teams who give up 31 or more points/game.

Tennessee is 2-0 SU/ATS L/2  meetings in this series.

Home favorites Missouri - off 1 or more consecutive unders, excellent offensive team - scoring 35 or more points/game are 108-166 ATS  for a 61% conversion rate for bettors dating back 5 seasons.

Play on the Tennessee Vols to cover 1 unit reg selection

Kevin Sumlin the HC of Texas A&M is in trouble. His team since their opener against UCLA , when they blew  a huge 34 point  lead, and than lost , has been reeling. It was obvious during the season despite of top tier recruiting, this was a team with little chemistry and focus. That was never more evident than their recent back to back home losses vs Mississippi State and Auburn by DD beat downs. Now the mood is dire to say the least, and these young men  in the Texas A&M football program looked disinterested , which does not bode well for them coming into this non conference game with little meaning attached to it.  I know New Mexico may not inspire many bettors with their recent performances, which includes 11 turnovers in their L/4 games, but they actually matchup well from a ATS perspective vs a side like Texas A&M. I expect the Lobos via a solid ground attack to just be happy eating clock up and here and pounding the rock , which will allow them to stay within the number.  Note:TEXAS A&M is 12-29 ATS  L/41 versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 230 or more   rushing yards/game.

In the past its not like Sumlin seems to get his team up for lower tier competition and has a history of seeing his team play down to their opponents on a consistent basis ,as this trend will point out. TEXAS A&M is 0-7 ATS L/7  vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse is 1-8 ATS   in home games vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return.

TEXAS A&M is 0-8 ATS L/8 in the second half of the season dating back to last season.TEXAS A&M is 0-6 ATS  L/6off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival .NEW MEXICO is 13-2 ATS  off an upset loss as a home favorite

CFB Home favorites like Texas A&M - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning record on the season are 37-75 ATS for a long term go against conversion rate of 67% for bettors.

Play on New Mexico to cover 1 unit reg selection

USC is off two impressive wins vs two over rated Arizona teams in their L/2 trips to gridiron and now the media/pundits and linesmakers are in love with them again. I know their opponents today Colorado have not been that impressive this season with a 5-5 record, but must not be underestimated especially here in their last home game of the season. In the past the Buffs have been a good bet in their last tilt as hosts cashing 10 of their L/11 tickets for their backers . It must also be noted that the Trojans are just 0-10 ATS L/10 on the road as DD chalk against .500 or greater opposition.

CFB Road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points like USC- viable team - outgaining their opponents by 1 or more yards/play, after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games are just 20-57 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 74% for bettors.

Play on the Colorado Buffs to cover 1 unit reg selection

Auburn (7-2) before this season started was high on my list of sleeper teams to fight for a national championship and nothing has changed my mind. The loss at Clemson earlier this season was a heartbreaker, and the loss vs LSU a shocker because of a lack of focus in the end half. But do not be fooled by those results as  this is an extremely strong Auburn football program at the moment and they had the opportunity to win both those tilts . I know undefeated 9-0 Georgia continues to get a great deal of accolades, and are an extremely competent team with a big win vs top tier Notre Dame , but I will not be surprised if their undefeated streak comes to an abrupt end here this Saturday. Look for a hard fought tilt, that has the feel of an upset written all over it. Home field advantage will be the difference maker here.It’s a great opportunity for Auburn to climb back into the College Football Playoff conversation and expect they will play like their lives depend on it this week.  Take the points.

AUBURN is 13-1 ATS  L/14   in home games vs. very good defensive teams who give up 14 or less points/game  and  is 9-1 ATS  L/10  in home games vs. incredible defensive teams who give up 12 or less points/game.

CFB home team vs. the money line like Auburn - an excellent offensive team (34 PPG or more) against an excellent defensive team (16 PPG or less) after 7+ games, after scoring 37 points or more in 2 straight games are 23-6 SU the L/25 seasons for a 79% conversion rate, thus getting points here based on this trend alone makes for a viable wagering opportunity.

Play on Auburn to cover 1 unit reg   selection

Iowa is off a resounding 55-24 win vs Ohio State last week, and have been competitive all season long, losing by just 2 points to Penn State at home  and one score ( TD losses) to Northwestern and Michigan State  on the road in hard fought 17-10 defensive affairs In their only  3 losses on the campaign . With that said, I'm betting on  Iowa having  the defensive strength allowing just 18.1 ppg to be competitive against Wisconsin this week at just  under a two TD dog. Note: IOWA is 14-4 ATS  L/18 after scoring 50 points or more last game .Meanwhile, Wisconsin is off a huge beat down of Indiana last week, by a 45-17 count, but have been bad bets in the past ATS under those circumstances as they are just  0-6 ATS  L/6  in home games after a win by 28 or more points and 1-9 ATS L/10   after a cover as a double digit favorite.

Wisconsin is perfect so far on the season, but I'm betting if their perfect season continues it  will not come without difficulties vs a under rated and under appreciated foe.

IOWA is 25-5 ATS  L/30  versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 230 or more  rushing yards/game.

Iowa has covered 6 of the L/9 meetings in this series. Badgers are 1-5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Badgers are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.Hawkeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in November.

Play on Iowa to cover  1 unit reg selection

My own projections make this a huge win for Ole Miss. Actually one of my biggest of the season behind an SEC team that is improving as their campaign has progressed. I'm estimating that Ole Miss wins this game by 24 plus points on a value line. LA Lafayette D , has allowed 37.4 ppg on the season against average opponents for the most part , while Ole Miss has averaged more than 42 ppg in offensive production at home. Here today I will not be surprised by a 50 point out put by the Rebs and subsequent cover vs a side that has averaged about 21 ppg in offense on the road.

Ragin' Cajuns are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.

Road underdogs LA Lafayette - off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 or more points against opponent off a road win against a conference rival are 19-32 ATS L/25 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Ole Miss to cover 1 unit reg selection

Stanford despite of a 6-3 record including last weeks 24-21 loss to Washington State is a team that must be respected as home underdogs. I know their opponents Washington are highly rated, but I'm not that impressed by their resume, despite of the pundits being in love with them and feeling they deserve national play off recognition. With that said, I'm betting on a  revenge minded Stanford crew that lost to Washington last season by a humiliating 44-6 score to be hell bent on pay back and knocking the Huskies off their perch. It must be noted that Washington is only 11-34 SU L/45 on the road vs above .500 foes, while the Cards are 7-0 ATS L/7 as conference home dogs, and 7-1 ATS overall as 4 or more point dogs, and an amazing 13-0 SU L/13 following  a SU favorite loss with HC Shaw at the helm, including 11-0 SU/ATS L/11.Shaw is also 6-0 ATS L/6 after a loss by 3 or less points as the coach and is 8-0 ATS L/8 after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread.

STANFORD is 16-5 ATS L/21  versus excellent defensive teams - allowing  4.25  or less yards/play.WASHINGTON is 4-13 ATS  L/17 in road games after allowing 9 points or less last game which happened against Oregon last time out in a 38-3 win.

CFB Road favorites like Washington - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 2.75 or less rushing yds/carry, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are just 13-37 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 74% for bettors.

Play on  Stanford to cover  1 unit reg selection

App State no longer looks like a top tier program. Yes, their still to respected because of pedigree and the recruiting  is still decent, but they have recently lost their last two games as favorites and once against look like they are being over rated as they have been out yarded in 4 of their L/5 games. I know Georgia Southern may not inspire bettors, but under new HC Chad Lundsford, who is 2-0 ATS, they  have gradually played better ball , and considering their top tier  ability to run the ball, always remain a dangerous underdog, especially vs a DD line like this. 

APPALACHIAN ST is 0-8 ATS  L/8  in home games vs. lower tier defensive teams who give up 31 or more points/game and 2-12 ATS  L/14 in a home game where the total is between 49.5 and 56.APPALACHIAN ST is 3-13 ATS  L/16  in home games after the first month of the season .

CFB Home favorites like App State  - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning record on the season are just 37-75 ATS dating back 5 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Georgia Southern  to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Bobcats enter this game with a explosive offense that has put 40 or more points on the board in 3 straight games, and must not be underestimated at home as dogs. I know Toledo is a top tier MAC team, but they are off a grueling hard fought 27-17 win vs Northern Illinois last week and could easily be in a letdown spot here this Wednesday night and go to 1-5 ATS L/6  after taking on NIU.

OHIO U is 7-1 ATS  in games played on turf this season Ohio HC .Solich is 13-4 ATS  L/17 vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season and is 5-0 SU/ATS in his L/5 home game as dog and have covered 4 straight as conference home dogs.

NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Ohio U- quick starting offensive team - scoring 16+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 51-20 ATS L10 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Ohio to cover 1 unit reg selection

The AFC West-leading Kansas City Chiefs head to Texas this weekend to face a Dallas Cowboys team that is 4-3 on the season, and showing a lot of inconsistencies. Tonight against the Chiefs I'm betting the home teams  problems will be amplified as key offensive cog Boyz RB Elliott is expected to miss for the first time this week as he begins his six-game suspension for violation of the NFL's personal-conduct policy. Needless to say the Cowboys offense will be muted and the flip side I'm betting the D will also get slashed, as Dallas has had  big problems  with explosive  offenses so far this season and top tier quarterbacks . The Rams' Jared Goff and the Packers' Aaron Rodgers ripped apart the  Cowboys secondary in back-to-back losses a few weeks back. That's not a good omen for Dallas vs Chiefs man under center Smith, who has passed for 2,181 yards and 16 TDs with no interceptions this season.

KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS  L/6  in road games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game. DALLAS has been unable to take advantage of leaky Ds, and are   0-6 ATS  L/6  in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 350 or more yards/game.KANSAS CITY is 8-0 ATS L/8  in road games in the second half of the season over the last few seasons.DALLAS is 0-6 ATS  L/6 in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 Last few seasons.

The Chiefs are 11-0 ATS covering by 8.59 ppg on the road when the line is within three of pick after a home win in which they were outgained.

Play on the KC Chiefs to cover 1 unit reg selection

Seattle has owned sub par .600 or less opposition at home, going 29-2 SU L/31 only failing to cover in 8 of those tilts , and are 14-1 ATS against these type of foes looking to reap revenge like Washington. It's never easy travelling from east to west, and I'm betting the Redskins are at a disadvantage from a body clock standpoint.  With both teams operating at the opposite end of the performance spectrum, Seattle 4 straight wins - Washington 1-3 L/4/0-4 ATS, it will be an easy decision to take the home favorite at a TD or less.

WASHINGTON is 1-9 ATS  L/10  in road games off 2 straight losses against division rivals.SEATTLE is 14-3 ATS  L/17  in home games after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored. Redskins are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC.Seahawks are 24-7-2 ATS in their last 33 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.Favorite is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

The Seahawks are 17-1 ATS and 18-0 SU as a favorite on turf after a game in which they had at least 290 passing yards of passing yards with 17 of the 18 games seeing victories by a TD or more.

Play on the Seahawks to cover 1 unit reg selection  

Meet the NFL flavor of the year. LA Rams - asking price is laying 3.5 points on the road. Despite of all the giddiness surround the Rams I'm not buying into what the pundits/linesmakers  are offering at this time, and feel like the price is  a little steep. I know the Rams are off a bye and previous to that pitched a 33-0 shutout against Arizona, but it must be noted that a team coming off a shut out of  an opponent and than are coming off a bye  have failed cover 8 of the L/10 times. Meanwhile, the Gmen are also off a bye and  in the past have been extremely capable  playing  with rest winning 6 of 7 times straight up. I know the Giants may not inspire a lot of bettors and could  be in the midst of down season, but they are still in league with strong parity. Remember the old saying folks" Any given Sunday ".

Note: Giants -QB Elie Manning is 5-0 SU/ATS in his career vs NFL West oppostion and the Giants are 7-0 SU L/7 in this series.

LA RAMS is 0-7 ATS  L/7 vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better.NY GIANTS are 10-1 ATS L/11 vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att.

The Giants are 16-0 ATS covering by an average of 7.41 ppg as a dog after a game in which they benefitted from at least 95 penalty yards. The SU record was 11-6 but none of the losses came by more than 3 points.

NFL Road favorites like the Rams  - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after leading in their previous game by 21 or more points at the half are 18-45 ATS for a 71% go against conversion rate for bettors dating back 34 seasons.LA RAMS is 2-11 ATS  L/13 after allowing 200 or less total yards in their previous game.

NFL team like the NY Giants  - average offensive team (4.9 to 5.4 YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.4 to 5.8 YPP), after being outgained by 100 or more total yds 2 consecutive games are 45-17 ATS L/34 seasons for a long term 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NY Giants to cover

The TB Bucs may not inspire bettors , but they are an interesting and under rated under performing group that can move the ball in explosive fashion when in a groove behind QB James Winston and rank second in the NFL in passing yards per game (295.4) to New England (302.1).They averaged 30 points in losses to the Cardinals and Bills but then were held out of the end zone in a 17-3 home loss to Carolina last week, the first time they failed to score a touchdown since James Winston's arrival in 2015. However with that said I'm betting this TB group that is 5-2 in the stats battles  this season will bounce back in a big way this Sunday in the Bayou vs what I'm starting to feel maybe a over rated Saints side.

TB is 9-3 ATS L/12 as away dog of 7 points or more.

TAMPA BAY is 21-9 ATS L/30  in road games after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games  with games average point margin clicking in at around a FG.

NFL Underdogs or pick like TB - an average offensive team (18 to 23 PPG) against an excellent offensive team ( 27 PPG or more), after scoring 14 points or less last game are 96-53 ATS last 34 seasons for a long term automatic 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the TB Bucs to cover 1 unit reg selection

Denver has really disappointed a lot of people this season, but when your using a young QB like Trevor Siemian that is  still trying to learn a system problems are going to rear their ugly head and they have. That's why the Broncos have said, that they will go with Osweiler a QB that has won 13 of his 21 NFL starts in this Sundays tilt vs the Eagles. I know the Eagles have looked like juggernauts, and are 7-1 on the season. But today their going to face a desperate team, with bad intentions and I'm betting if the Eagles can pull of the victory it won't come easily.

Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

NFL Road teams like Denver - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, with a losing record on the season are 43-16 ATS L/10 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors thanks to bloated over done lines.

Play on the Denver Broncos to cover 1 unit reg selection

The SMU Mustangs have come a long way and are really forming into a very capable football program with an explosive offense, that can be a menace for most teams in this nation including the red hot undefeated UCF Knights who are ranked 15th in the country . With that said, and despite of their record, I myself still have some doubts about, UCF despite of some decent wins against some  pretty good teams, even though these said teams are  still not of the top tier variety . Now here as 14 plus point road favs the Knights  maybe getting just a bit to much love from the lines-makers considering how explosive their opponents the Mustangs can be offensively, making the home dog a  viable SU or back door opportunist here in a home game that will see them and their fans sky high with enthusiasm. This place will be rocking and a upset is not out of the question and a cover a higher probability than many might think possible.

UCF is 2-10 ATS L/12 as 7 or more point conference favs.

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points like SMU - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 30-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the SMU Mustangs to cover 1 unit reg selection

Make no mistake despite of losing last week to Air Force , Colorado State are still the most explosive team in  the Mountain West Conference this season, and I'm betting we see them at their very best this week in rebound mode. They have won 3 of their L/4 on the road, and actually did not look completely out of place vs Alabama in their lone road loss ( 23-41) Meanwhile, Wyoming off a huge revenger last week where they exerted a great deal of energy in a merciless DD win vs New Mexico, by a 42-3 count,  could easily find themselves drained and susceptible to being beaten up on themselves this week. I mean these kids play like their hair was on fire and won't be surprised if their spent.

COLORADO ST is 8-1 ATS  L/9 in road games over the last 2 seasons.

 Road favorites like Colorado State  - excellent rushing team (4.8 or more YPR) against a poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR), in conference games are a long term good bet going 66-26 ATS L/10 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Colorado State to cover 1 unit reg selection

UNLV is off a huge upset win vs Fresno State last week, winning by a 26-16 count, as 21.5 underdogs. The Bulldogs looked completely drained after pulling off an upset of their own vs San Diego State the previous week, and Rebels took advantage of the situation.  Now in another emotional letdown scenario  I'm betting its UNLV's turn to suffer . Look for a Hawaii team that despite of struggling on offense and  losing to pretty good San Diego State  program ,actually did not look as bad as I thought they would, and will now be well prepared to make a game of this after a facing last weeks very physical defensive opponent. What I' saying is look for the Warriors very capable offense to tee off in a big way here , vs a D, that allowed Utah State to pound them for 52 points the week before last.

UNLV is 2-13 ATS  L/15 off a road win against a conference rival .

CFB road team Hawaii  - with an excellent offense - averaging 6.1 or more yards/play, after gaining 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game are 23-3 ATS L/25 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Hawaii to cover 1 unit reg selection