New England lost a strange game last week, brain farts galore by some players best describes it. I wont get into it here, but it was embarrassing. Pros do not like to be embarrassed and coach Bellichick Im sure will have his team ready for redemption  against a red hot Bengals side that is on a 6-0 run.

Patriots are  6-1  ATS L7 in this series . and 4-1-1 L/6 vs AFC North opposition. NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 straight up against CINCINNATI since 1992. 

Patriots HC Bill Belichick is 14-0 ATS as a non-division dog coming off a loss with New England.

NEW ENGLAND is 26-12 ATS  as a home underdog since 1992.

Play on Patriots to cover 

The Jags are finally playing top brand of football behind  ,QB Trevor Lawrence  who now leads the NFL in passer rating (111.2) and completion percentage,  (14 TDs, 1 int)   going back to Week 9 . Tonight he will be challenged by a top tier D, but probably wont have to worry about going back and forth as the Jets offense is extremely atrocious. With the Jags still in the race for play off spot Im betting they get the job done with an all out effort and more importantly as far as we are concerned get the cover. 

Jaguars are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC. Jaguars are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.

Jets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.

Play on Jacksonville Jags to cover

Air Force behind their triple option offense  is ranked  No. 1 in the nation  in Time of Possession and Im betting they burn plenty of clock time and slow down Baylors offensive prowess because of breaking up their flow.  The Fly boys are also No. 1 team in the nation in Overall Defense and must not be disrespected in their ability to slow down a strong Baylor attack… The Falcons have also had great success in Bowl games cashing  10 of their   last 13 bowl games.  With Big 12 sides just 0-3 L/3 vs Military schools and Baylor having lost  5 of their L/7 here at this venue SU its an easy decision to grab the points with the under rated underdog. 

Calhoun is 29-11 ATS  when the total is between 42.5 and 49 as the coach of AIR FORCE

NFL Neutral field underdogs (AIR FORCE) - excellent ball control team, 32 or more possession minutes/game are 75-36 L/10 seasons for a 68% conversion rate.

Play on Air Force to cover 

New Orleans Bowl - Caesars Superdome - New Orleans, LA

Western Kentuckys explosive big play offense can do damage against the best of Defenses. Im usually a proponent of strong defenses in Bowl games, but like I said the Hilltoppers can make strong Ds like South /Alabama owns  look very average as the football program has registered  350 or more yards  of offense in 27 straight games.

S ALABAMA is 5-15 ATS L/20  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record .

W KENTUCKY is 21-9 ATS L/30 as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. W KENTUCKY is 32-13 ATS L/45 vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game. Helton is 15-6 ATS  in road games in games played on turf as the coach of W KENTUCKY.

Western Kentucky is 3-0 SU/ATS in bowl games vs. .666  or better opposition and are a bankroll expanding 13-2 ATS as a dog vs. Sun Belt foes and 11-3 ITS against Bowl sides since last season.

Play on Western Kentucky to cover 

Boca Raton Bowl - FAU Stadium - Boca Raton, FL

Liberty Im betting is being under estimated here in their abilities to pick up a straight up win and more importantly a cover even though they finished a down not as the team looked disappointed that they may lose their coach Freeze to a power 5 team, that dis materialize and now Im betting they will be ready to play.LIBERTY is 9-1 ATS  as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.LIBERTY is 37-19 ATS   in non-conference games .Liberty is 3-0 SU against  MAC sides  L/3 seasons.  Freeze is 9-1 ATS   after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games in all games he has coached since 1992.

Toledo is 3-9 ATS in bowl games since 2002,Candle is 0-6 ATS when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest as the coach of TOLEDO.

 MAC Bowl sides like Toledo are  just 6-28 SU and 8-25-1 ATS vs. opponents like Liberty  coming off a loss. 

Play on Liberty to cover 

QB Baker Mayfield made his return to the gridiron last week and lead the defending champs  to a  17-16 victory over the Raiders.  However, this Monday in the cold the tundra of historic  Lambeau Field  Im betting he freezes up and for the continually banged up Rams to falter.. Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win. Rams are also just  1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

It must be noted that the Green Bay Packers are 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS in this series since 2007 . Also QB Aaron Rodgers is 23-12-3 ATS in his career against NFC West opponents  and   when he is  coming off a Bye week is 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS at home in his career . 

GREEN BAY is 8-1 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons and they get the nod again tonight on MNF. 

Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Green Bay.

Rams are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 meetings.

Favorite is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings.

Play on Green Packers to cover

Myrtle Beach Bowl - Brooks Stadium - Conway, SC

The   Uconn Huskies played well this season and got  bowl eligibility under first year HC Mora who has got this group to play disciplined tough football. It must be noted that first year HC s have cashed 10 of their L14 Bowls as  double-digit dogs  .  Here today, Im betting UConn stays fairly competitive vs the lowly No. 127 in the nation Red Zone Offense. 

CONNECTICUT is 19-6 ATS  after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games.  Huskies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.

Thundering Herd are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in December. 

Play on UConn to cover 

Tom Brady has a big chip on his shoulder right now after a bad game against the SF 49ers last time out.   It  was embarrassing as it was   third-worst loss in Brady’s NFL career.   But now with a week of rest (bye week) you can bet the GOAT will be out looking hard for redemption. I know the Bengals have won and covered 5 straight, but looking maybe a little bit to over confident.  note:  Brady  11-1 ATS in  career as a home underdog and 10-0 SU/ATS off a loss of more than 7 points. Advantage Brady and company. 

NFL Underdogs or pick (TAMPA BAY) - mistake-free team (1.25 or less TO/game committed) against a team with 1.25 or less TO/game forced, after 3 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers. are 38-13 ATS L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate.

Play on Tampa Bay Bucs to cover 

Chargers are in a good mood after an upset, of the Dolphins last week. But now after that emotional win will be in a letdown mode and vulnerable to a down effort vs a side that is having some problems and now with a new HC.  Note:NFL .500 or greater NFL sides like Tennessee that are 0-3 SUATS in its last three games versus an opponent that is coming off a SU/ATS win are 8-1 SU and 16-3 ATS taking on a side  off a SU underdog win.  We also  know the Titans are a run first team , and here against the worst run D, in the league allowing an average of 5.4 rpc , trouble in brewing for the favs. Titans are 6-1 ATS L/7 vs West.LA CHARGERS are 1-8 ATS  after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs over the last 3 seasons

LA CHARGERS are 21-39 ATS L/60 in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. 

TENNESSEE is 6-0 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Tennessee to cover 

There was a time earlier this season when I gave hope for Jaguars’ QB Trevor Lawrence,. but now my hopimism has turned positive  as is evident by his 111.7 passer rating over his L/3 outings.  I know he goes against a red hot Dallas side, but this Jags teams looks to have come to life and will highly motivated to steal a win here and more importantly as far as we are concerned get us the cover. In the only game here against Dallas in the history of the Jags, they are 1-0 SU/ATS. 

NFL Home teams (JACKSONVILLE) - in non-conference games, off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival are 31-9 L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Jacksonville to cover 

My power ranking suggest Detroit is the better side and currently in better form. than their opponents the NY Jets. The Lions are 6-0 SU L/6 overall while the NYJ have 4 of their L/6 and have overall shown long droughts of not being able to put points on the board averaging just 20.3 ppg  on the season. Advantage Lions. 

DETROIT is 6-0 ATS  when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 season,DETROIT is 12-1 ATS  vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

NFL Underdogs vs. the money line (NY JETS) - after going under the total by 49 or more points total in their last seven games, in the last 4 weeks of the regular season are 1-26 L/5 seasons for a 96% conversion rate. 

Play on Detroit to cover

Frisco Bowl - Toyota Stadium - Frisco, TX

North Texas is getting to many points here according to my projections. Note: Conference title game losers  like North Texas as DD underdogs have cashed 8 of their L/10 opportunities. Also … CUSA Bowl sides are a perfect  5-0 ATS off a Double digit  defeat when going against. MWC opposition. NORTH TEXAS is 6-0 ATS  in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 3 seasons. Bennett is 12-4 ATS  as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points as the coach of NORTH TEXAS.

 Boise State also lost their conference championship game to Fresno State- teams like this that lost their conference title tilt are 2-8 ATS in their Bowl appearances. 

key matchup stat:NORTH TEXAS is 9-2 ATS vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking at +2.7. 

Play on North Texas to cover 

The young men from Florida wont get much of welcome in the cold climate of Northern NY state this Saturday night against a revenge minded Bills who have redemption in mind for a loss they suffered in Miami earlier this season. I know the Bills already took a 16 point deficit win in the first revenge go around, but believe  me , teams like this double down this time of year and really come out to play. With this being the Dolphins 3rd straight road Im betting their a bit exhausted . Note: The Fins are 1-6 ATS L/7 in their 3rd game on the road. 

MIAMI is 4-13 ATS in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  75% or better) in the second half of the season. 

BUFFALO is 19-5 ATS  in home games vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game in the second half of the season. 

Play on Buffalo to cover 

New Mexico Bowl - University Stadium - Albuquerque, NM

I was surprised to see SMU as  favs in this game vs BYU even though  they will play without star RB Lopini Kotoa as there are viable alternatives in that position on this team looking to make a statement  The Mustangs enter this game  0-5 ATS as favs and  0-3 SU all-time in this series.  . Considering this is  Mustangs’ HC Rhett Lashlee’s first  ever bowl game , his lack  experience could easily work against him here, and I expect BYU to pound their way to cover   .SMU is 4-15 L/19 ATS (in road games versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry . SMU is 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) off an extremely close home win by 3 points or less (which was the case last time out winning by 34-31 count vs Memphis.Mustangs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. INDEP.SMU is 2-11 ATS   in road games after having won 4 out of their last 5 games .

CFB Neutral field favorites vs. the money line (SMU) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences have lost  17 of L/27 opportunities SU. 

Play on BYU to cover

The Colts have not looked good lately and got beat up badly last time out vs Dallas, losing 54-19 allowing 33 points in the last quarter wow. Combination of bad luck and just plain ugly football has them embarrassed and out looking for immediate redemption. Pros dont like to be embarrassed like that and you can bet they will play like their proverbial hair is on fire. 
Note: Indianapolis is 11-0 ATS run when playing off a double-digit loss, 

Colts are 7-0 ATS L/7 vs NFC North opposition. Considering how inconsistent the Vikings have been this year wont be surprised if they have a down game. 

INDIANAPOLIS is 12-3 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. over the last 3 season

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MINNESOTA) - hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 7-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate. 

Play on Indy to cover 

Cure Bowl - Exploria Stadium - Orlando, FL

These two teams enter this Bowl tilt on 10-game win streaks . There is a difference here though between both sides and that comes on defense.Troy’s defense has held  the  seven bowl teams they played to 17 PPG/326  total YPG on average . Meanwhile,UTSA  has had  defensive problems  against  Bowl sides this season allowing,  an average of 29 PPG/409 total YPG on average. There is on old adage that says defense wins big games but offense gets you to those big games. This was never truer here in this matchup as UTSA has shown more offensive prowess than the Trojans, but the Trojans defense is superior according to the numbers and its obvious how tenacious their D is if you have watched any of their games. 

Troy is 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS against Bowl teams this season and have won their L/4 appearances. Trojans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in December.

TROY is 7-1 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. this season.

UTSA has never won a Bowl game and are 0-3 SU . 

Play on Troy to cover 

 QB  Brock Purdy, and his 134 passer rating were impressive last week to say the least in the 49ers DD win vs the visiting Tampa Bay Bucs .  Meanwhile Seattle was taken out by a play off hungry Panthers last week by a  30-24 count, and failed to cover for the 4th straight time.   Despite of the two opposite trajectories these teams are on, Im betting the old ball coach Pete Carroll has some magic he can deploy in desperation mode as the Seahawks still have play off hopes.  With Star Deebo Samuel out with a sprained ankle and MCL and a expected regression from media darling Purdy and a desperation effort from the home side should help as cash a underdog ticket. ,Seattle is 4-0 ATS at home off a home game, as well 9-2-1 ATS in Thursday nights while the 49ers have failed to cover in three straight Thursday prime time tilts.  

SAN FRANCISCO is 13-28 ATS L/41 in road games after allowing 9 points or less last game . 

SEATTLE is 41-18 ATS  versus good rushing teams - averaging 130  or more rushing yards/game in the second half of the season. . Carroll is 6-0 ATS   in home games after failing to cover the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games as the coach of SEATTLE. Carroll is 7-0 ATS in home games vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game in all games he has coached 

NFL Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SEATTLE) - after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 22-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. 

Play on Seattle to cover  

 New England  well rested after a bye week is one game ahead of the Jets  and currently sits as the  No. 8 seed in the AFC playoff race and come into tilt in need of wins to stay relevant for post season action, while the Cardinals are pretty much toast when it comes to making the play offs , unless they can string together wins here to finish of the season. Im betting both sides will be motivated, but the coaching edge , resides with Belichick  going against Kingsbury.  Arizonas coach   Kingsbury is just  5-15 ATS at home  when his side is s 2 point or less underdog. and his side is  0-3 SUATS the last three in Monday night prime time tilts .  Meanwhile,  Bill Belichick is 22-9 SU/ATS against NFC West opposition sides  in his NFL career,  and 13-0 SU if that team is coming off a loss like Arizona is.  Also the Pats despite of coming off a loss are a resilient bunch as is evident by their  6-0 ATS record off a home loss by 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons and are also  7-0 ATS  after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game over the last 3 seasons. 

Patriots are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a bye week. Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

ARIZONA is 3-12 ATS   in home games against AFC East division opponents.ARIZONA is 1-9 ATS)in home games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.. Cardinals are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games.

Pats are 4-0 SU/ATS L/4 visits to Arizona.

Play on New England Pats to cover 

49ers starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo went down with a season-ending foot injury last time out and now a backup QB will go to the field ie probably Purdy who took over from Jimmy last time . With Tom Brady and company out seeking revenge for a previous loss to SF Im betting the Bucks have edge . Brady is 19-4-1 ATS when his team is seeking revenge and his 24-6 overall ATS record when getting points. Considering San Francisco is just 1-7 ATS as non-division home favorite  of less than four points its an easy decision for me to back the future HOF  QB to come up big here as the Bucs make a run at post season action .  I know SF is ranked in No.1 in D, but Tampa Bay's defense is  also of the top tier variety  as the  Buccaneers rank eighth in the NFL in total defense (313.8), fifth in scoring defense (18.3) and fourth in sacks (38).

Tampa Bay to cover 

Seattle had to come from behind and take a  late win vs the banged-up  Rams in Week 13. Seattle is getting far to much respect from the lines-makers this week, despite of playing a sub par side. We have to remember  Carolina (4-8),  and are off a bye week so their well rested and believe it or or not sill in a playoff position in the slumping NFC South. With that said the Panthers still have plenty to play  as they are  only two games out of first place.

Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Meanwhile, Seahawks are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games following a straight up win.

Seahawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

SEATTLE is 0-6 ATS  after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Home teams (SEATTLE) - excellent passing team (7.3 or less PYA) against an average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA), after gaining 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games are 9-32 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Carolina Panthers to cover 

Both teams were blown out last week, but one of these teams is more motivated than the other as ,  Jacksonville (4-8) has one shot to get it self into contention for post season action. It either wins this week or it will miss the playoffs for the fifth straight year since advancing to the AFC finals in 2017, when it held a fourth-quarter lead before losing in New England. Motivational factors support taking the points here with the Jags. 

Pederson is 14-3 ATS  versus good rushing defenses - allowing 90 or less rushing yards/game in all games he has coached since 1992.

TENNESSEE is 8-20 ATS L/28 vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game in the second half of the season.  TENNESSEE is 9-22 ATS after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight game

NFL Favorites of -160 to -475 vs. the money line (TENNESSEE) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 8-17 L/10 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Jacksonville to cover 

The Cowboys are running hot, but Im going to take a contrarian stance here tonight and back Indianapolis to cover the line. I know the Colts disappointed last week in a loss as favorites but they have proven resilient in the past off that type of loss winning 11 of their L/13 opportunities for redemption. NDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 ATS  in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less yards per return over the last 3 seasons. INDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 ATS   in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more  yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. INDIANAPOLIS is 8-1 ATS  in road games versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons.

DALLAS is 0-6 ATS in home games after outgaining opp by 100 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.

Dallas’ owns a sub par  9-17 SU and 7-17-2 ATS record against non-division opposition in prime time Sunday Night affairs. 

The Cowboys own a 0-5 ATS record as  chalk of more than 7 points when coming off a Thanksgiving day game .  Meanwhile, the The Colts  owns a powerful  8-1 ATS records  before their Bye week, which is up next a are 7-1 ATS   in non-conference road tilts . 

Play on Indianapolis Colts to cover

The Chiefs have big time revenge on board for their AFC championship game loss  last season,  to this Cincinnati side.  Im betting they get their redemption  behind the arm and legs of super star QB Patrick Mahomes who is  26-0 in his last 26 starts in November and December. 

 Play on KC Chiefs to cover 

I know the defending Super Bowl champions the LA Rams are banged up and not in top form , but this is just to many points for the Seahawks to cover in my humble opinion on the road , giving us value with the undervalued  home underdog. SEATTLE is 0-6 ATS in road games off a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons. Carroll is 18-33 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less in all games he has coached since 1992. 

Rams are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 13.

Rams are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in December.

NFL Favorites (SEATTLE) - good rushing team - averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry, after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game are just 67-119 ATS L/39 seasons for a go against 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Rams to cover 

 The Jets have pivoted from  QB Zach Wilson to Mike White and Im betting that will be a beneficial move . The Jets right now if the season ended would be in the play offs and are very motivated to get some upward momentum.  It must be noted in two career starts, White owns passer ratings of 149.3  and 101.1 in his first and only other start  last season.  Interestingly enough the Jets had eclipsed the  30 point -plateau  and 450 Total Yards in the last four seasons just 3 times and guess who was the starting QB  in those games, you got it - White. So this week against a Vikings side that has lost the stats battles in 3 straight games, the Jets must not be underestimated in this ability to cash a ticket for us. 

NY JETS are 6-0 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse this season.NY JETS are 6-0 ATS  vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game over the last 2 seasons.

NFL Underdogs or pick (NY JETS) - after a game where they committed no turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 26-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.

NFLHome favorites (MINNESOTA) - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (1.25 or less turnovers/game committed), after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers are 16-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

NY Jets to cover

MW Championship Game

Boise State took out Fresno State 40-20 earlier this season, and Im betting the Bulldogs will not have a big enough turn around to get the revenge win in the rematch. Boise is 11-1 SU L/12 at home this series and have won 5 of 6 home games . Home field advantage will prevail once again.

BOISE ST is 33-17 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game. Tedford is 14-28 ATS  when the line is +3 to -3 in all games he has coached since 1992.

 CFB home team vs. the money line (BOISE ST) - with an excellent defense - allowing 285 or less total yards/game, after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 29-2 L/5 seasons for a 94% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +18.7. 

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (FRESNO ST) - revenging a road loss against opponent by 14 points or more, off 3 straight wins against conference rivals are 13-38 ATS L/30 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Boise State to cover 

Ive made Troy -10 advantage favs here according to my own personal projection sheets. Thus laying this number makes for a viable wager. TROY is 7-1 ATS   against conference opponents this season with the average ppg diff clicking in at +10.3 ppg. 

Note: Coastal Carolina is expected to play without  starting QB Grayson McCall. His replacement QB Jarrett Guest has not  shown much going  18-of-42 (42.9%) for 270 yards, 1 TD and 4 INTs in conference and here vs an extremely strong Trojans D, more struggles should be expected.

CFB home team (TROY) - off a road blowout win by 28 points or more, a top-level team (80% or more ) playing a team with a winning record are 30-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Troy to cover 

Since these teams have met earlier this season, the Utes D has become more physical and has come together and currently showing alot of chemistry. Im betting the Utes physicality and grit will be the difference maker in the rematch.Entering the Pac-12 Championship game, Utah leads the Pac-12 in third down and fourth down defense, first downs defense, passing defense, rushing defense, scoring defense, total defense and time of possession.  

It must be noted that on the season the Utes have the PPG differential advantage , winning by +19.3 as  compared to USC’s +16.2 ppg diff average. •    The Utes are averaging 39.4 points per game, ranking 10th nationally.

Utah is the only team in the Pac-12 that ranks in the top-20 nationally in both scoring offense and defense, ranking 10th and 19th.    In the last three games, Utah has been averaging 67.3 yards per scoring drive while averaging 51.4 in the previous nine games.  Utah is averaging 26.4 first downs per game while holding opponents to 15.5, ranking fourth in first down offense and 11th in first downs defense in the FBS.  

Note:Extending plays is Utah's specialty this season, ranking eighth in the FBS in third down conversions (.503)Utah ranks fifth in both sacks allowed and tackles for loss allowed per game in the country.

UTAH is 22-10 ATS L/32  in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  75% or better. )  UTAH is 22-7 ATS  after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992.

USC is 7-18 ATS in December games since 1992.

CFB  team (USC) - excellent offensive team (6.2 or more  YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP), after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play 2 consecutive games are 11-39 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB  team (UTAH) - excellent rushing team (4.8 or more  YPR) against a poor rushing defense (4.3 to 4.8 YPR) after 7+ games, after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game are 34-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Utah to cover

Pittsburgh is being under rated here in this matchup vs the Colts especially with JJ watts in the lineup. His energy permeates through this team and gives them an extra charge.  The Steelers are  8-0-1 ATS in the last nine matchups  versus AFC South opponents, while the Colts  are just 1-6 ATS L/7 vs AFC North opponents.

The  Steelers are 16-2 SU L/18 in this series, including 2-0 SUATS as a pup. I know the Colts have played better of late, but this team is still in disarray and fade material in my humble betting opinion. 

Pittsburgh 8-1 ATS L/ 9 MNF vs division opposition

Play Pittsburgh to cover . 

The Eagles had to get down and dirty in a come from behind  in the 4th quarter last week to garner a  17-16 win vs Indianapolis and will now be in an unfortunate emotional letdown situation vs a very hungry Green Bay side. I know the Packers fell flat on their faces last week losing as favs , but it must be noted that  QB Aaron Rodgers is 10-1 SU/ATS as a pup when the Packers are coming off a SU favorite loss. Rodgers is a very streaky QB, and dont be surprised if he finishes this season on fire, starting tonight in Philly on national TV. 

It must also be noted that Philly has lost the stats wars in 3 of their L/6 games and are being over rated by the pundits in my humble betting opinion. 

PHILADELPHIA is 14-31 ATS  in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.

NFL Underdogs or pick (GREEN BAY) - after a game where they committed no turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 26-4 L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

NFLHome favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (PHILADELPHIA) - hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 5-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Green Bay Packers to cover

The Jets averaged 2.1 yards per play in last Sundays defeat at the hands of the New England Pats and don't deserve this much respect based on having a overall strong D. QB Wilson will not start this week, but any back up pivot Im betting wont fair much better . Yes, I do know QB Justin Fields is not 100% but his legs are dangerous offensive weapons and if he does not play pounding the ball on the ground is not a foreign concept of moving the ball for the Bears giving them an advantage in this type of matchup. 

NY JETS are 19-34 ATS  off a road loss against a division rival since 1992. NY JETS are 22-38 ATS in home games in non-conference games since 1992.

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NY JETS) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 8 or more games, after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game are 13-40 ATS L/39 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate. 

CHICAGO is 6-1 against the spread versus NY JETS since 1992 and have covered their L/3 visits to NYJ. 

Chicago is 4-0 ATS L/4 vs AFC East opposition.

Play on the Chicago Bears to cover 

 App State enters this game as a weak favorite in my betting opinion as their 2-7 ATS record in lined games would indicate as well as a ugly  1-7 ATS record  as a chalk. The Mounties have also failed to cover 4 straight and despite of a boatload full of talent seem like their missing decent chemistry.  On the flip-side we  have to remember that the home side needs a victory here to garner a Bowl invite so they will leave it on the field today .APPALACHIAN ST is 1-9 ATS  in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons.Clark is 11-21 ATS  as a favorite as the coach of APPALACHIAN ST. G Southern is 4-0 ATS L/4 home finales.

Play on Georgia Southern to cover 

Iowa State takes on  a perfect 10-0 TCU side that is off a late FG win in a grueling tilt vs Baylor last time out and could easily find themselves in a letdown situation this Saturday. Add to that Iowa State despite of not being Bowl eligible have played much better down the stretch than earlier in the season and have out yarded their L/5 opponents . This could easily be the Cyclones biggest and most important game of the season from a personal perspective and I expect we see them leave everything on the field versus a side easily looking ahead to their upcoming Big 12 championship game. 

Iowa State has covered 6 straight aas conference road pups and are 3-0 ATS L/3 in this series as underdogs. 

Campbell is 15-6 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more passing yards/att. as the coach of IOWA ST.

CFB road team (IOWA ST) - poor rushing team - averaging 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry are 179-106 ATS L/5 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Iowa State to cover 

Liberty is off a 1 point loss to Vtech last week and are not in a good mood. This Liberty side is known as the king of cripple killers and Im betting their wrath has no end this week, against a side they overwhelmingly matchup up well against. Note: Liberty has crushed  sub  par .333 opponents by an average of  33 ppg in their L/17 opportunities  and  have covered  and won these events. 7-0 straight times in lined tilts. Rinse and repeat. 

Play on Liberty to cover 

After playing Illinois last week Michigan is bruised and banged up and Im betting that  will effect their performance this week vs. revenge minded Ohio State side that has had this game circled on their calendar for a while now after getting shellacked by a 42-27 count last season at the hands of the wolverines. CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MICHIGAN) - off 3 straight wins against conference rivals against opponent off a double digit road win are 20-50 ATS L/30 seasons for a 72% conversion rate. 

Play on Ohio State to cover 

Arkansas known as inconsistent football program under HC Pitman is off a huge win vs Miss last time out and now Bowl eligible will be in huge letdown spot vs a Missouri program that had success in this series over the years. Note: Arkansas has lost 11 of their L/15 off a upset win. 

ARKANSAS is 11-25 ATS L/37 as a road favorite . 

Drinkwitz is 9-2 ATS  versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 450 yards/game as the coach of MISSOURI.

MISSOURI is 11-2 ATS L/13 in home games versus inconsistent defensive teams - allowing 6.25  or more yards/play.

CFB Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ARKANSAS) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game against opponent after out gaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 29-62 ATS L/30 seasons for a go against 68% conversion rate. 

MISSOURI is 3-0 against the spread versus ARKANSAS .MISSOURI is 4-0 straight up against ARKANSAS at Arkansas. 

Play on Missouri to cover 

Both these teams have identical 9-2 records on the season, and their only recent losses have both come to UCF in closely contested affairs. The difference maker today will come via Bearcats home field advantage and the fact this is a football program is use to high pressure games and will not fold under any kind of pressure. This is not the case for Tulane. 

CFB home team vs. the money line (CINCINNATI) - off a double digit road win, in a game involving two top-level teams ( 80% or better) are 36-4 L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +12.1.

Play on Cincinnati cover

Wow it was a crazy week for both these sides last time out on the gridiron. The 8-2 Vikings took their worst home loss since 1963 and the Pats after looking asleep at the wheel  for most of their game vs the Jets took a walk off win with a punt return for the length of the field. Now Im betting on a complete reversal of sorts as a huge redemption minded bounce back for the Vikes is in play and for karma to instantly strike back at the Pats vs an embarrassed side looking to gain back some self respect. Im betting on Minnesota to make it 5-0 SU/ATS L/5 Thanksgiving days games.

MINNESOTA is 12-2 ATS  in home games after a loss by 21 or more points since 1992.

Play on the Minnesota Vikings to cover 

Atlanta is 4-6 SU on the season, but even at that sub standard record is a aberration  as the Falcons have been out-yarded -82 in net YPG  ranking second worse in the NFL and are an ugly  1-9  in the stats battles this  campaign. Meanwhile, the Bears , despite of not being a top tier side, are dangerous behind the legs of  QB Justin Fields and a offensive system that starting to micmic cfb military school programs. That might be an exaggeration but you get the picture. Im saying the Bears matchup well here vs a obviously over rated opponent based on stats. 

Bears are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss which was the case last time out. 

Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

ATLANTA is 1-8 ATS  as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons.ATLANTA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Home teams (ATLANTA) - off a road loss, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25-40%) are 24-61 ATS L/39 seasons for a go against  72% conversion rate. 

Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

Play on Chicago Bears to cover 

NY Jets are playing over all proficient football and are  6-3 SUATS record, including 4-0 SUATS on the road and have an overall 5-1 SU record L/6 trips to the gridiron and obviously deserve respect as road dogs. I know New England carries a famous brand name but the Jets are a team on the rise and look very much like a viable side to back. Yes, I know the Pats are well rested, but that has not been a recipe for success for Bellichick and company going 1-10-1 ATS with rest. 

Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC East.

NY JETS are 37-21 ATS  in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 38 points since 1992.

Play on NY Jets to cover 

 Detroit rallied last week from a 24-10 deficit to pull off a 31-30 win, the franchise's first victory after trailing by 14 or more points entering the fourth quarter since 1993. Now with momentum on their sides the Lions enter with confidence and Im betting will be prepared to battle again this week vs the Giants. The Lions' offense has been very  efficient over the past three games, turning the ball over just once and must not be underestimated in the dog role.

Visitor is  10-2 ATS in this series .Detroit is  8-3 non-division road dogs of  6 points or less.

DETROIT is 6-0 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more yards/play in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.DETROIT is 17-5 ATS  after being out-gained by 75 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games.

Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in November.Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Lions are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 vs. NFC.

Campbell is 1-9 ATS  after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games in all games he has coached since 1992.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (DETROIT) - good offensive team - scoring 24 or more points/game, after a win by 3 or less points are 95-47 ATS L/39 seasons for a 67% conversion rate.

DETROIT is 5-1 against the spread versus NY GIANTS L/6 meetings.Road team is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings.

Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in New York.

Play on Lions to cover

Fresno State is playing well and Nevada is not having suffered 8 straight losses after q 2-0 start to their campaign. I know the Bulldogs are the superior side, but they have not played well on the road this season losing the stats battles in 4 of 5 games. Im not doubting Fresno State wins here straight up, but I wont be surprised to see Nevada cover this spread and in fact Im betting they do. 

Nevada was blast 41-3 on the road like week in Boise State but it must be noted that this program has proved somewhat resilient in the past after a ugly offensive output going  14-3 ATS  L/17 in home games after scoring 14 points or less last game . 

Tedford is 0-7 ATS   in road games vs. poor teams - outscored by 10+ points per game on the season in all games he has coached since 1992.

Play on Nevada to cover 

Georgia is a power house and heads and shoulders above most teams in this entire nation and have a history  of having strong performances in their final road games of the season registering an astounding 11-0 SU/ATS record. With that said, and despite of the hefty line offering laying this much lumber is a viable offering.  Note: CFB Road favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (GEORGIA) - dominant team (outgain opp. by 100+ YPG) against an average team (+/- 50 YPG) are 27-4 ATS L/10 seasons for a 87% conversion rate. 

CFB Home underdogs of 14.5 or more points (KENTUCKY) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games, in November games are 16-40 ATS L/10 seasons for a 72% conversion rate.

Play on Georgia to cover

UL Monroe has won their L/2 games, and now go against a strong Troy side, that despite of 8-2 overall record and a 7-0 run have only one win of more than 9 points during their current winning streak. Its Troys /D that does a majority of the top tier work, while the offense regularly struggles. My projections estimate this is just to many points to lay with the Trojans with the value sitting with the road dog with winning momentum .

"Don't let their record give you any indication," Troy coach Jon Sumrall said. "They're 4-6 by record but they lost by a score to Coastal Carolina, they lost by a score to South Alabama, and they played Alabama and Texas, two Power Five teams.

TROY is 0-10 ATS L/10  in home games off 3 or more consecutive unders . TROY is 0-6 ATS in home games after playing a game at home over the last 3 season.TROY is 4-14 ATS   in home games when playing against a sub par team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%)

Play UL Monroe to cover 

The Georgia State Panthers must not be underestimated here vs James Madison as their  defense is staunch and has been dominating their opposition of late. It must be noted that in the last three trips to the gridiron they have given up a grand total 785 yards combined and they have sacked the QBs 15 times  during their current smash down of offenses.   I know James Madison is a fine football program, but they will feel the heat here today vs a gritty/physical side with a never say die attitude. 

GEORGIA ST is 6-0 ATS  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.GEORGIA ST is 9-1 ATS L/10 in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) since 1992.  GEORGIA ST is 10-2 ATS L/12 in road games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season. GEORGIA ST is 8-0 ATS   in road games after playing 3 straight conference games over the last 3 seasons. GEORGIA ST is 8-1 ATS  in road games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

CFB road team (GEORGIA ST) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP), after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games are 25-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Georgia State to cover 

Its not my usual m.o to  lay this many points on the road . But Im betting we have a firm advantage here with the road team UTSA that has won 7 straight behind a consistent offense that will take advantage of Rice D, that has allowed 41,56, 30, 45 points respectively in their L/4 trips to the gridiron. The Roadrunners are also trying to clinch a chamoionship game spot so motivation will be a huge factor this Saturday  Note:Road favorites vs. the money line (UTSA) - off 3 straight wins against conference rivals against opponent off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more are 36-1 L/10 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +19.8 ppg which easily qualifies on this ATS offering . UTSA has won the L/6 meetings in this series and have won and  covered the last 3. 

Play on UTSA to cover 

The defending Big 12 champs Baylor Bears were defeated  30-28 as 7.5-point chalk at TCU last season, and now have revenge on board and are redemption minded after a down effort last week vs Kansas State  in what Im betting was a look ahead situation that back fired on them from a attention standpoint. Now wide awake and ready to perform they are very viable underdogs at home vs a TCU side in an emotional letdown scenario after pulling off an upset on the road vs Texas last week. TCU is 5-15 ATS L/20 off an upset win as a road underdog since 1992.

Baylor has covered  13 of their L/14  as an underdog when out looking for  conference revenge versus an opponent coming off a SUATS victory, including 8-0 ATS L/8 when playing as hosts.

.BAYLOR is 31-16 ATS L/47 versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25  or more rushing yards/carry.BAYLOR is 6-0 ATS in home games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons.Aranda is 13-5 ATS   when playing against a team with a winning record as the coach of BAYLOR.

Play on Baylor to cover 

Despite of an array of returning players from last season, Northern Illinois is just 3-7 SU on the campaign and will not be going bowling this season. Meanwhile, 4-6 Miami O still has a chance at a Bowl invite and Im betting are very motivated  and well prepared to get a W here today. I know Northern Illinois is off a victory last time out, but that has not always been a recipe for success when facing this particular MAC football program going  0-7 ATS coming off an outright away win vs the Hawks. Overall Miami O is 7-1 ATS L/8 meetings in this series and get the nod here behind a solid D, that is allowing just 23 ppg. Note: Northern Illinois is allowing an average of 38 points per game ranking 114th nationally allowing 8.3 yp attempt and here even against a pedestrian Miami O offense wont necessarily be ready for any kind of sudden bounce back. 

MIAMI OHIO is 6-0 ATS  in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons.(lost to Ohio last time out)

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (N ILLINOIS) - off a road win against a conference rival, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 7-33 ATS L/30 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Miami O to cover

 Rams were shocked last week as with 35 seconds left on the clock Tom Brady engineered a come from behind victory with a TD that shocked and emotionally smacked the Rams down a few notches. Now in a rebound mode Im betting the redemption minded Rams come out here with their proverbial hair on fire and take down the visiting Cardinals. ARIZONA is 0-6 ATS vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. ARIZONA is 2-11 ATS vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Kingsbury is 0-6 ATS after allowing 30 points or more in 2 straight games as the coach of ARIZONA.

NFL Underdogs vs. the money line (ARIZONA) - with a poor scoring defense - allowing 24 or more points/game, after allowing 30 points or more in 3 straight games are 3-33 L/5 seasons a  go against 92% conversion rate.

NFL Underdogs vs. the money line (ARIZONA) - poor team - outscored by opponents by 4 or more points/game, after allowing 30 points or more in 3 straight games are 2-29 L/5 seasons for 94% conversion rate.

Rams are 5-1 SU/ATS L/6 in this series.

Play on LA Rams to cover 

I respect how well the Giants have played this season overall but they have a long history of playing down to their opposition. It must be noted that the Gmen have failed to cover 12 of their L/16 vs sub .150 struggling sides like the Texans. Texans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 10.

Texans are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

NY GIANTS are 3-11 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. NY GIANTS are 8-19 L/27  ATS  in home games after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games . 

Giants are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.Giants are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.

NFL Favorites (NY GIANTS) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (18-23 PPG), after a loss by 10 or more points are 8-29 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFLRoad underdogs or pick (HOUSTON) - mistake-free team (1.25 or less TO/game committed) against a team with 1.25 or less TO/game forced are 60-29 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Play on Texans to cover 

According to my power rankings this game should be closer to a pickem even though the Bears have home field advantage thus giving us value with the road dog. DETROIT is 8-1 ATS  vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in November.

Lions are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC North.

CHICAGO is 0-6 ATS in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.CHICAGO is 5-13 ATS  against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC North.Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Bears are 0-3-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

NFL team (CHICAGO) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 4-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (DETROIT) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games are 36-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Play on the Detroit Lions to cover 

The  inconsistent Saints  played their most complete game of the season when they beat visiting Las Vegas 24-0 two weeks ago and despite of a loss last week are more than capable of a bounce back vs a Pittsburgh side they matchup well against. Not betting on another shut out, but against a  offense, which is averaging just 15 points per game and is tied for the fewest offensive touchdowns in the NFL (11) the Saints have a great opportunity for victory. 

NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS  in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Saints are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous gam

PITTSBURGH is 3-12 ATS L/15 against teams with a turnover margin of -1 per game or worse in the second half of the season . 

NFL Favorites vs. the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - good rushing team (125 to 150 RY/game) against a poor rushing team (70-95 RY/game) after 8+ games, after allowing 175 or more rushing yards last game are 35-2 L/39 seasons for a 95% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Saints to cover 

Cleveland according to my power rankings despite of a sub .500 record is very under rated and deserve respect here as underdogs vs a Miami side that are ranked 15th in rushing yardage allowed per game this season. Look for Nick Chubb to do what other RBs have not done to the Dolphins and rush consistently and for more than 100 yards. Chubb is second only to Derrick Henry in rushing yards per game (105.1) and leads the league in rushing touchdowns, with 10. Chubb will be the difference maker . 

 Miami is 0-7 ATS  after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games since 1992. MIAMI is 6-21 ATS  in home games after a win by 3 or less points .MIAMI is 16-30 ATS in home games after a win by 6 or less points. 

NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MIAMI) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in November games are 3-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 90% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MIAMI) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 9-37 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate.

NFL Road teams (CLEVELAND) - excellent offensive team (370 or more  YPG) against a poor defense (335 to 370 YPG) after 8+ games, after outgaining opp by 150 or more total yards in their previous game are 24-4 ATS L/26 seasons for a 86% conversion rate. 

Play on Cleveland to cover 

Jacksonville is improving as is evident by winning the stats battles in 5 of 9 games this season and off a SU win last week  and  are capable of competing  here vs a KC team in a letdown situation after  QB Patrick Mahomes passed for 446 yards last week. Im now bettong on regression from the KC QB and his team. Note: KANSAS CITY is 1-8 ATS after gaining 300 or more passing yards in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. KANSAS CITY is 1-16 ATS L/17 after gaining 450 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games .  

Reid is 1-9 ATS in home games after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs as the coach of KANSAS CITY.

NFL favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS CITY) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in November games are 3-26 L/5 seasons for a go against 90% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Jacksonville to cover 

Last time out future HOF  QB  Brady went on a , 60-yard drive with under 40 seconds left of last week’s victory vs the Rams and in doing so showed us you can never count him or his team out of any game.  I know the Buccaneers opponents today the Seahawks have won 4 straight, su and ATS but they are an over rated bunch in my humble opinion and the lines-makers look like they agree with my assessment. It must be noted Brady  is 3-0 SUATS in his NFL career in regular season games on neutral field and is now motivated to get his team back to .500. Look for the super star to be primed to perform on an international stage and to help his team to a win and cover over Pete Carroll and company. 

Buccaneers are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.Buccaneers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November.

TAMPA BAY is 11-3 ATS vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TAMPA BAY) - after 3 or more consecutive losses including pushes  against the spread against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 34-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Seahawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Tampa Bay to cover 

Georgia is off a huge win vs Tennessee last week by double digits . It was impressive to say the least against an explosive offense. Now in a letdown situation the Dawgs may not start as quickly vs a home side that deserves respect behind the viable arm of Will rogers and company. Note: Miss State HC Mike Leach has cashed 17 of 23 times in his career vs undefeated opposition. Georgia won 31- 24 at home last season in this series, failing to cover as -26.5 chalk and with a limited swing on this line, taking points with the home dog is not as far fetched as some pundits might suggest. Mississippi State has covered 2 of the L/3 meetings at home in this series.Georgia  are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win.

Miss State are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Play on Mississippi State to cover 

Alabama enters this game vs Ole Miss in very cranky mood , after falling flat on their faces and getting upset SU vs LSU last time out. You can bet life was miserable in practice this week for the Crimson Tide, and now  this massive group of 4 and 5 star athletes will be ready to get redemption and what could easily be a merciless Alabama explosion. 

Saban is 13-0 SU in his career vs sides with a better record and 27-2 vs former assistants. 

ALABAMA is 16-6 ATS in road games vs. poor ball control teams, 28 or less possession minutes/game since 1992 with the average ppg diff clicking in at just under 20 ppg. 

ALABAMA is 10-2 ATS  after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at just under 30 ppg. 

CFB Home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (OLE MISS) - in conference games, off a road win against a conference rival are 8-32 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Alabama to cover

After a slow start Louisville has gone 4-0 SU/ATS L/4 tilts and are in a upward momentum drive and now deserve respect here vs a over rated Tigers side that lost last time out to Notre Dame by DDs a a fav.  Note: CLEMSON is 1-9 ATS  off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite since 1992.

CLEMSON is 0-6 ATS in a home game where the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last 2 seasons.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (LOUISVILLE) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP), after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 29-8 L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Louisville to cover 

Western Kentucky football program has had a long history of over powering performances late in the season. In week 11 games they are a perfect 13-0 L/13 opportunities and 9-0 SU/ATS L/9 chances. Im betting on another explosive effort here vs a Rice side that has a tendency to fall asleep at the proverbial  wheel like their ugly 56-23 upset loss to Charlotte at home as 15 point favs a couple of weeks ago. Western Kentucky smashed Charlotte last week 59-7 and  beat Rice last season by a 42-21 count. Rinse and repeat on board. 

Owls are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games.Owls are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Hilltoppers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in November.

Hilltoppers are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Hilltoppers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 conference games.

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (RICE) - with a turnover margin of -1 /game or worse on the season, after 3 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers. are 34-67 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Western Kentucky to cover

JMU (5-3, 3-2) spent a week in the Top 25 after winning its first five games, including an upset of Appalachian State in Boone, North Carolina. But JMU has lost three games in a row since as has ODU . While, the Dukes are not going to Bowl or allowed to be a championship side because of this being their first season in the FBS, they may not be as inclined to fight it out like a do or die situation. Meanwhile, the Monarchs are   still in the hunt for a bowl bid, and need 3 straight wins to do so and with that said Im betting leave everything on the field today. 

CFB road team vs. the money line (JAMES MADISON) - off a road loss, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a losing record are 1-7 this season . 

Play on Old Dominion to cover 

Im betting on a huge hangover for the LSU Tigers after upsetting the Alabama Crimson Tide  last time out making them vulnerable to being upset here today vs Arkansas side that fell asleep at the wheel last time out and were upset. Razorbacks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game which was the case in a 21-19 defeat vs under rated Liberty. 

The two most recent meetings in this series have been decided by 3 points . 

 Arkansas is  8-1 ATS as a  underdog of 16 or fewer points. 

Tigers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.

 CFB road team (LSU) - off an upset win as a home underdog of 7 or more, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 22-52 ATS L/30 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Arkansas

East Carolina deserves respect here after 3 straight victories vs BYU, UCF, and Memphis. Meanwhile, Cincinnati seems to not playing with alot of motivation and the offense seems much more inconsistent than over the last few seasons, giving credence to me recommending we grab the points with a never say die underdog that plays with passion. Houston is 9-2 ATS  vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. as the coach of E CAROLINA.E CAROLINA is 16-4 ATS L/20 as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points .

Play on East Carolina to cover 

Buffalo had a five game win streak abruptly come to an end  vs Ohio last time out. on the road . However, it must be noted that Buffalo is looking to win its fourth road game of the season. A win would make the Bulls bowl eligible for the seventh time in program history and the fifth time in the last six seasons so they will be very motivated and ready for a bounce back effort.

Key projected difference maker: Buffalo has forced 19 turnovers on the season.  The Bulls' lead the MAC with a +7 turnover margin. Add to that Bulls defense has been positively aggressive this season  scoring  a defensive touchdown in three of the last four games. 

BUFFALO is 19-5 ATS against teams with a turnover margin of -1 per game or worse since 1992BUFFALO is 14-3 ATS  after having won 4 out of their last 5 games since 1992.

Chippewas are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games.

CFB road team (BUFFALO) - off a big upset loss by 17 points or more as a favorite, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 23-3 L/30 seasons for a 89% conversion rate!

Play on the Buffalo Bulls to cover 

The Battle of the Bricks goes tonight as up-trending Ohio takes on Miami Ohio in Oxford tonight. Im betting- Ohio has surprised alot of ppl this season behind a offense thats piling up top tier numbers. It must be noted that rhe Redhawks have one of the best defenses in the conference. Miami ranks first in scoring defense (21.4), second in total defense (348.0), first in rush defense (107.8), third in sacks (23) and third in interceptions (7). Miami's rush defense ranks 18th nationally.  In five conference games the RedHawks are allowing 18.0 points per contest and have allowed just 10 touchdowns all MAC season.-- In conference play, opponents have reached the re zone 16 times, but have come away with touchdowns just 50% of the time.

Meanwhile, Ohio is ranked 124th in tackling and 123rd in coverage.Thats important because Im betting on QB  Gabbert  who has won 11 of his 12 career starts in Oxford to keep up with Rourke and company and get us to the promised land with either a cover or a SU upset victory.

Projected key difference maker: In his first year with the football program, Graham Nicholson has not disappoin ted  . He finished the season 15-20 on field goals, including 6-of-7 on attempts between 40-49 yards. He added 30 touchbacks on 65 kickoffs in 2021. He is 13-for-16 on field goals in 2022. He also had his first game-winning field goal, connecting on a 36-yard field goal with 21 seconds to go in the 17-14 win at Northwestern.

The RedHawks are 32-15-2 at home vs. Ohio, including a 30-28 victory in 2018 in the Bobcats' last visit.

OHIO U is 4-15 ATS L/19 when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) 

MIAMI OHIO is 32-15 ATS ( L/47 when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%)MIAMI OHIO is 21-8 ATS   off a double digit road win since 1992. which was the case last time out. Martin is 13-4 ATS  as a home underdog as the coach of MIAMI OHIO.

Play on Miami O to cover

The Saints are off a top tier 24-0 effort last time out vs a very inconsistent Raiders team. However it must be noted that NFL teams off a shutout home win are just 1-4 ATS/SU  L/5 opportunities dating back 37 seasons. Also the Saints have proven themselves very inconsistent this season, losing 5 of 8 games. Allen is 3-12 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread in all games he has coached and is vulnerable to a letdown scenario here.

NEW ORLEANS is also just  9-22 ATS  L/31  against AFC North division opponents .

Harbaugh is 6-0 ATS  in road games against teams with a turnover margin of -1 per game or worse in the second half of the season as the coach of BALTIMORE.

Favorites vs. the money line (BALTIMORE) - team with a turnover diff. of +0.75/game or better against a team with a diff of -0.75/game or worse, after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 31-3 L/10 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors.

New Orleans is 0-5 ATS under the Monday night lights of prime time action, 

Baltimore is 6-1-1 ATS on Monday night away tilts.

Play on Baltimore to win /cover

Future HOF QB Brady and the Buccaneers are no longer to be feared as is evident by their sub par play so far this season. Brady has averaged a substandard 6.7 yards per attempt and the offense is tied for 25th in third-down efficiency (34.6 percent). 

TAMPA BAY is 9-21 ATS  in home games vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game. TAMPA BAY is 0-6 ATS  in games played on a grass field this season. TAMPA BAY is 0-6 ATS   in games played on a grass field this season which was the case last time out. 

After a negative outing vs the SF 49ers last /Sunday the defending Super Bowl Champs will be in redemption and bounce back mode and are very dangerous. Sean McVay  is 10-5 ATS as a  road dog and  10-3 ATS and 9-4 ATS i vs NFC South opposition , including cashing and winning 3 straight as a dog. The  Rams’  also own a 8-1 ATS series record vs the Bucs and 3-0 SU/ATS L/3 visits to Tampa Bay. 

Small non-Division Away Pup (+5 or less points) if they lost their last game as a Home Dog/pk and scored 20 points or less are 24-2 ATS . Rams qualify.

NFL team vs the money line (TAMPA BAY) - poor rushing team - averaging 90 or less rushing yards/game, after being outrushed by 75 or more yards in 2 straight games are 28-6 L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Rams 

Cincinnati lost last week to UCF and now are in a emotional letdown spot and vulnerable to starting slow despite of being in bounce back mode. Since last seasons play off run the Bearcats own a 1-6-1 ATS mark. 

NAVY is 7-0 ATS  vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 2 seasons. NAVY is 9-1 ATS  vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 34 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons. NAVY is 8-1 ATS  versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons. Niumatalolo is 6-0 ATS  as a road underdog of 14.5 to 21 points as the coach of NAVY. Niumatalolo is 15-4 ATS  off a home win against a conference rival as the coach of NAVY.

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (NAVY) - mistake free team - 42 or less penalty yards per game, after dominating the time of possession last game (36 or better  minutes) are 55-16 SATS L/30 seasons for a 74% conversion rate. 

Play on Navy to cover

These two teams are operating at the opposite end of the performance spectrum with Illinois getting national accolades, while Michigan state seems completely lost. However, for today at least Im betting on Michigan state finding a way to be competitive. After a huge passing game last week vs Nebraska (91% completion rate)-- Illinois Im betting regresses especially after having to endure a emotional letdown after playing in type of stadium that can sap your energy. Michigan State needs wins badly to get a Bowl invite, so Im betting they leave everything on the field today. 

ILLINOIS is 2-10 ATS  in home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 8 or more passing yards/att.  ILLINOIS is 2-13 ATS  in a home game where the total is 42 or less since 1992.

ILLINOIS is 1-9 ATS in home games after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games since 1992.

Play on Michigan State to cover 

Both these sides Tennessee and Georgia  are explosive offensively but the difference maker comes via the Dawgs far superior D.  The Dawgs are 10 ppg and 131 yards better on defense than the Volunteers.  Georgia ranks 1st in red zone offense, and No.2 in Red Zone defense. Meanwhile, the Vols are ranked 82nd in the nation in overall D. Note:  Dawgs HC  Kirby Smart is 36-7 SU covering 31 times  as a favorite of less than 20 points,  and has won 8 straight games against  undefeated foes.

CFB road team (TENNESSEE) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (34 or more PPG) after 7 or more games, after scoring 31 points or more in 3 straight games are 7-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB Home favorites (GEORGIA) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP), after gaining 525 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. are 48-19 ATS L/30 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Georgia to cover 

 The UCF Knights are strong team especially when playing at home but have yet to notch a victory on the road in the American Athletic Conference this season and have not grabbed a  win in Memphis since 2018 season. Im betting UCF will find it hard again to find a way to win here this week on the highway, vs a  Memphis side that 11-0 coming off an open date going back 8 seasons and 3-0 under Silverfield. key here will be the tigers discipline Note: Memphis ranks sixth for fewest penalties in FBS football and are averaging just  4.25 penalties per game. 

Memphis is also 7-0 ATS as a home dog since 2016.

MEMPHIS is 10-1 ATS  off 2 consecutive road lossesMEMPHIS is 10-1 ATS  in home games vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season since 1992.MEMPHIS is 25-12 ATS  in home games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game .

MEMPHIS is 6-1 against the spread versus UCF since 1992 at home. 

Play on Memphis to cover

 Baylor is 6-1-1 ATS as Big 12 away pups  and are viable dogs in this spot based on their overall body of work during this campaign as compared to the Sooners inconsistent displays. 

BAYLOR is 7-0 ATS  in road games after playing 3 straight conference games over the last 3 seasons. Baylor is 20-1 ATS as a conference underdog against an opponent coming off a SU/ATS win.

BAYLOR is 46-27 ATS  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) since 1992.

Bears are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points and  are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Bears are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.Bears are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games overall.Bears are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up win.Bears are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games on grass.Bears are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.Bears are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games in November.Bears are 47-23 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Sooners are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.Sooners are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Sooners are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games. Oklahoma is  0-5 ATS at home against  a side likr BU coming off consecutive SU/ATS victories.

Bears are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Oklahoma.Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

CFB home team (OKLAHOMA) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 18-48 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate.

Play on Baylor to cover 

TCU is red hot entering this game winning 8 straight and still undefeated,  ranking 3rd in the nation in Scoring Offense, averaging 44.3 PPG.and go against a Texas Tech side that was blasted vs Baylor last week and looking emotional and physically drained after taking on quality opponents in 5 of their L/6 trips to the gridiron. 

CFB road team (TEXAS TECH) - average offensive team (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) against a poor defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) after 7+ games, after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game are just 9-30 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on TCU to cover 

Purdue upset the Hawkeyes as 11-point pups on the road  at Iowa last season  and now the Hawkeyes have revenge on board. I know both sides have played at the proverbial opposite end of performance spectrum , but Iowa showed some offensive uptick last week in a victory, and with a solid defensive group on the field ranking 5th overall on D Im betting they can make a game out of this and possibly get SU playback. IOWA is 6-0 ATS  in road games off a home win over the last 3 seasons. Hawkeyes are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Road team is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (IOWA) - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 100 or less rushing yards/game, after allowing 1.5 or less rushing yards/attempt last game are 60-26 ATS L/30 seasons for a 70% conversion rate. 

Play on Iowa to cover 

Wow what an ugly outing for the Boston College last time out, losing 13-3 as 8-point road favorite vs UConn which drops their ATS record vs FBS sides this season to 1-6 ATS.  With that said, Im betting on another ugly outing for the Golden Eagles this week vs a Duke side that has registered 35 and 45 points in back to back games . With BC  averaging  17.3 PPG  on offense this season I highly doubt they can keep up here tonight and as the game progresses should find themselves down by DDs. 

Blue Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Friday games.Blue Devils are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games on fieldturf. Blue Devils are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

Eagles are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall.Eagles are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

CFB road team (DUKE) - after a game where they forced 4 or more turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers are 63-27 ATS L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate.

Play on Duke to cover 

Coastal Carolina are home dogs tonight where they deserve respect as is evident by a  17-2 SU in their last 19 overall , including 6-0 SU in revenge, and 2-0 SU/ATS as a underdog. Coastal Carolina lost in OT last season 30-27 in Boone and with big time revenge on board you can bet the home side will be fully awake and ready to perform. 

Mountaineers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win which w the case last time out. 

Chadwell is 6-0 ATS  when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of COASTAL CAROLINA.

APPALACHIAN ST is 0-7 ATS after allowing 125 or less passing yards in their last game over the last 3 seasons.

 CFB home team (COASTAL CAROLINA) - off a double digit road win, a top-level team (80% or better ) playing a team with a winning record are 62-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate. 

Play on Coastal Carolina to cover

Both these offenses are less than explosive, but overall according to my data and power rankings projections the difference maker will come via Western Michigan superior red zone  defense   where they rank  top-30 in opponent conversion rate. Last time out the Broncos was suffocating allowing Miami just 10 points in a win and smashed and grabbed their way to 7 sacks.  Note:The Broncos have seen a decrease in their FBS opponent rushing yards in each of the last four games since giving up a season-high 238 to Pittsburgh and  Im betting the ground the lanes will once again be shut down forcing Bowling Green to the air making them alot more one dimensional and readable. Advantage Western Michigan. 

Falcons are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Falcons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games in November.Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a bye week.

 Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Wednesday games.

Broncos are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

Play on Western Michigan to cover 

Oh how far the mighty have fallen. Biblical proportions have been attached to line and the perception of the public and the lines-makers ability to play into that concept. Right now Rodgers and company are no longer feared by their opponents and the betting public has abandoned them for their new darlings the Buffalo Bills. 
However with that said it must be noted QB Rodgers is 40-15 SU in his career in October, tilts including 8-1 ATS as a pup of 2 points or more. The inconsistent star seems to stand tall in these types of games , however, as is evident by his  5-0 SU /ATS mark in tilts he enters with a sub .500 record when going against top tier competition with a  .750 or better win percentage. When the chips are down Im betting the Packers find a way to be competitive in this nationally televised prime time event. 

NFL Favorites (BUFFALO) - solid team - outgaining their opponents by 0.75 or more yards/play, after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 15-53 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against  78% conversion rate.

Play on Green Bay to cover 

The defending Super Bowl Champs are not getting alot of respect here , probably based on  their  24-9 loss on the road in San Francisco  in early October. However, now in revenge mode, Im betting on this sleepy looking Rams side to come out their coma here with a top tier effort.

McVay is 10-2 ATS  after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games as the coach of LA RAMS.

NFL Underdogs or pick (LA RAMS) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 49-15 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Favorites (SAN FRANCISCO) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (18-23 PPG), after a loss by 10 or more points are 7-29 L/10 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Home teams vs. the money line (LA RAMS) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off a home blowout loss by 21 points or more are 24-1 L/39 seasons for a 96% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on LA Rams to cover 

Atlantas positive ATS record according to my data is skewed in comparison to the the fact they have been out-gained in each of their last six trips to the gridiron. Thats not a good omen for a team that has failed to cover 11 of their L/15 as home favs. ATLANTA is 3-11 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons and despite of Carolina not having a solid record still beat TB last week and were gritty in a loss to the Rams in their previous game. Carolina has won their last two visits here and don't be surprised if a rinse and repeat situation rears it ugly head in this spot play.

NFL  Road underdogs or pick (CAROLINA) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games are 35-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Home favorites (ATLANTA) - after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 10-35 ATS 39 seasons for a 78% go against conversion rate. 

Take the points with Carolina to cover 

The Bruins (6-1, 3-1 Pac-12) were defeated by  Oregon 45-30 last week at Autzen Stadium Note:The Bruins are 3-6 SU/ATS coming off their first loss of the season. . That was a deflating loss for the Bruins and Im betting they are drained emotionally here and may come out a little flat.

Meanwhile, Ssnce giving up 40 or more  points in each of its first three Pac-12 tilts, the Stanfords defense has really picked up on their tenacity and has now permitted  its last  three  opponents to score  56 combined points and have won two straight games. Note: Cardinal HC David Shaw is  16-4 SU and 16-3  ATS when coming off two wins exact. 

Shaw is 20-10 ATS  in road games in games played on a grass field as the coach of STANFORD.

Stanford owns a 12 -2 SU record  last 14 games in this series,  covering 11 of those games. 

Play on Stanford to cover

Last week South Alabama struggled to score and lost 10-6 to the Troy Trojans and a very physical game. Now in a letdown spot and physically/ emotionally drained Im betting they will have a hard time getting up off the matt in a tilt vs Arkansas State this Saturday. With formerly banged up QB James Blackman expected back in the llineup this week for the Red Wolves Im betting they will be competitive.  S ALABAMA is 0-6 ATS in road games after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons. S ALABAMA is 0-7 ATS  after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992.S ALABAMA is 0-7 ATS  off 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Arkansas State to cover 

 The SMU Mustangs D is not looking good this season  allowing 453 YPG vs FBS opposition  and  have been shredded  against ground attacks  as their No. 120th ranking trying to stop the run would indicate. With that said, Im betting on Tulsa RB Deneric Prince who enters this game   off a career-best 231 yards performance last week to be a major catalyst in a Tulsa cover and possible outright win this week. 

TULSA is 6-0 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more  yards/play over the last 3 seasons.TULSA is 9-0 ATS  as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. 

SMU is 6-17 ATS L/23 when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%). SMU is 0-6 ATS in road games after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons. SMU is 1-8 ATS in road games after the first month of the season over the last 3 seasons.

SMU is 6-17 ATS L/23 when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%). 

CFB road team vs. the money line (SMU) - in a game involving two excellent offensive teams (440  or more YPG) after 7+ games, after being out-gained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game are 4-34 SU L/30 seasons for a 90% conversion rate. 

Play on Tulsa to cover 

This is not a strong version of the North Texas football program taking to the field today against Western Kentucky especially from a defensive standpoint as is evident by allowing an average of 476.1 ppg and 34.5 ppg. I know the Mean Green are 3-1 in CUSA action but like I said having a Swiss cheese D is not optimal. going forward -or here today, for that matter.   Meanwhile, Western Kentucky is looking very strong after finding a way past UAB last week, and now sporting a 3-1 record in CUSA action while allowing just 19.5 ppg at home this season and can alos light it up offensively averaging 39.5 ppg at home. The only real weakness that the Hilltoppers have displayed is a lack of discipline, but Littrell is 2-9 ATS in road games vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game as the coach of NORTH TEXAS.

NORTH TEXAS is 7-21 ATS  in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9  or more yards/play with the average ppg diff clicking in at -24.7.

Note:N.Texas is 2-23-1 ATS record in conference tilts  when they loss SU which the lines-makers believe will happen as do I. 

CFB road team (NORTH TEXAS) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (34 or more  PPG) after 7 or more games, after a loss by 6 or less points and 5-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Western Kentucky to cover 

I know how powerful Ohio State can be, but Penn State Im betting can keep this game close enough to cover via a grinding ground game that is capable of turning this game into a slow crawl in the trenches. Note: Day is 0-6 ATS  in road games vesus good rushing teams - averaging 4.75 or more  rushing yards/carry as the coach of OHIO ST. 

CFB home team vs. the money line (PENN ST) - off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival, in a game involving two top-level teams ( 80% or better ) are 29-3 L/5 seasons SU  for a 91% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Home underdogs of 14.5 or more points (PENN ST) - with a good offense - averaging 400 or more total yards/game are 45-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Penn State to cover 

Wow what an emotional  hangover Syracuse must have after going into Death Valley and taking a big lead  and then falling apart late and eventually losing to Clemson.  The Orange had an opportunity of lifetime and blew it. Not a good situation for them here as Im betting they will have problems mustering the energy needed to take out a hungry Notre Dame side.  ND as a dog versus an opponent coming off a loss, and  they are coming off a victory of 4 points or more are 10-1 ATS . The Irish are 5-0 SUATS L/5 vs the ACC.NOTRE DAME is 7-0 ATS  against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.NOTRE DAME is 6-0 ATS  after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games over the last 3 seasons.NOTRE DAME is 7-0 ATS in road games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Notre Dame to cover 

Is Tom Brady finally starting to show his age?  Well to an extent he has been for a while, but even at 75% of where he was the future HOF QB is still better than most QBs in this league and deserves respect .  The Bucs lost last week and look lost in the process , but after all the negative press are ready to reap redemption on a national stage this Thursday night. .  Lets look at what Brady bring to the table in a situation like this.... He is  10-0 SU/ATS in his NFL career with a sub .500 record  and coming off a SU defeat . While the Ravens are 0-3-1 ATS L/4 overall and  0-5-1 ATS  in Thursday night road game . Until Tommy shows me he is toast Im betting he will be the difference maker here today and motivating factor behind a Bucs rebound.Ravens are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Buccaneers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.Buccaneers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Play on Tampa Bay to cover 

Both these teams are off 2 straight wins with back up QBs at the helm. Conventional handicapping has alot of pundits on Lafayette, but Im going to take a contrarian view here tonight in a tilt that features strong  defensive units sitting inside the Top 35 in scoring defense (ULL 21st, USM 35th). Both have almost identical  yards allowed per play and yards allowed per game with the superior offensive numbers belonging to Lafayette . Despite of that I like home field advantage to be a strong , advantage for this Southern Miss football program . key catalyst Im betting for Southern /Miss  will be Frank Gore, Jr., who continues to lead the ground game with 568 rushing yards and four TDs. He averages 81.1 yards per contest rushing and 4.9 per carry.

Golden Eagles are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

Southern Miss holds a 40-11-1 series advantage, including a current nine-game winning streak heading into this contest including 6 straight wins at home . 

Play on Southern Miss to cover

 The Bears 5-1 ATS in their last six Monday Night road games have finally figured out that any success they will have this season wont come on the back of QB Justin Fields. Thus Im expecting a continued run heavy attack from the Bears and for their staunch defense to stand tall. Note: The Bears rushing attack has big-play potential, ranking second in rush yards per game (170) and seventh in rushing average (5.2 yards per rush).With that said  I will  back them getting more than a TD on the road here in this prime time event . 

NFL Home teams (NEW ENGLAND) - excellent passing team (7.3  or more PY/Att.) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PY/Att.), after gaining 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 9-33 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate.

Play on Bears to cover

KC QB Mahomes is in bounce back and redemption mode this week after throwing a late interception last week and falling short vs Josh Allan and Buffalo . The top tier QB is still high in the  NFL  QB standing with a passer rating of at least 100 and is tied for the league lead with 17 touchdown passes and capable of a big effort . Considering the 49ers are banged up on both offense and defense  they are in trouble. The Niners also have alot of walking wounded who if they play are less than 100% i.e( Left tackle Trent Williams and defensive end Nick Bosa ) Advantage Chiefs. 

49ers are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games in Week 7.

Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

NFL Underdogs -SU (SAN FRANCISCO) - after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game against opponent after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 3 straight games are 1-25 L/5 seasons with the average ppg diff  clicking in at -12.3 which easily qualifies on this ATS line offering. 

Play on Kansas City to cover 

Giants Im betting will  continue their  upward momentum  on Sunday when they face the host Jacksonville Jaguars.  The lines-makers expect this to be a close game, but the Giants have shown grit and propensity, as is evident by winning five of the 6 one-score tilts and a rinse and repeat situation is at hand again this Sunday. Yes, I know  Jags QB Trevor Lawrence had a big game last week, maybe the best of his career, but his team still found a way to lose to a Indy team they have dominated in the recent past . Letdown is in order here for Jags as is continued success for Big Blue.  

NY GIANTS are 9-1 ATS in road games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

JACKSONVILLE is 0-7 ATS   in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.  

The Jaguars 0-18 SU  in their last eighteen games against NFC opposition.

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (JACKSONVILLE) - after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points, in October games are 8-24 L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (NY GIANTS) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 36-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on NY Giants to cover 

Penn States perfect season record ended last week in a loss to the Michigan and they will now be in a letdown situation against a hungry and tough group of Gophers who after a 4-0 start have lost 2 straight. Last week the Nittany Lions D was shredded on the ground allowing a whopping 418 yards. Now against a strong Minnesota run attack behind the legs of  Mohammed Ibrahim trouble looms for the home side here this Saturday on white out night. 

Fleck is 8-0 ATS  after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of MINNESOTA.Fleck is 11-2 ATS  in road games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game in all games he has coached since 1992.

Franklin is 7-22 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses as the coach of PENN ST.Franklin is 3-15 ATS off a road loss as the coach of PENN ST. 

CFB Road underdogs (MINNESOTA) - with a good offense - averaging 400 or more total yards/game, after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game are 28-6 ATS 10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate. 

Play on Minnesota to cover 

Alabama took part in a back forth emotional battle last week and lost on a ugly looking FG to Tennessee losing for the first time this season. That was an exhausting affair, and now Im betting instead of a giant rebound, Im expecting a slow start from Sabans now over valued crew. Note: Nick Saban in his career,  js  0-5 ATS vs FBS opposition at home when coming off a SU/ATS loss  Hey I know Mississippi State lost last week for the 2nd time this season to Kentucky, but I would at all not be surprised if they were not caught looking ahead to this game . 

Leach is 33-13 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging 200 or more rushing yards/game in all games he has coached since 1992

CFB Road underdogs (MISSISSIPPI ST) - with a good offense - averaging 400 or more total yards/game, after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game are 28-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Mississippi state to cover 

Stanford is in a huge letdown situation after upsetting Notre Dame last time out, and will now be vulnerable vs up trending ASU side that defeated a decent Washington team a couple of weeks ago before their bye week. Now well rested Arizona State with the relief of having gotten rid of HC Herm Edwards and a new era under way Im betting use their fresh legs here to be competitive and get us the cover .

STANFORD is 2-9 ATS   vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons.

Shaw is 3-11 ATS  vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return as the coach of STANFORD.

Cardinal are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 conference games.

Play on Arizona State to cover

Purdue 4-0 L/4 is getting alot of respect for the great football they have played, but this is a bad matchup for them vs Wisconsin despite of what many pundits expect. I know the Badgers seem discombobulated and are off being edged by Michigan State, 34-28 last time out in double OT, but this is a home tilt that puts this team in a situation that makes getting a victory a must just to get back some lost respect which means they will leave everything on the field in a all out effort. From historical standpoint Wisconsin is  42-28 ATS in Big Ten tilts when sporting a .500 record. WISCONSIN is also 47-27 ATS  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) since 1992.

Note: Wisconsin 15-0 SU in this series since the 2003 season. 

 PURDUE is 0-6 ATS  after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. PURDUE is 10-22 ATS  as a road underdog of 7 points or less since 1992.

CFB Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PURDUE) - an excellent offensive team (34 or more  PPG) against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG), after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 7-31 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate!

Play on Wisconsin to cover 

This a key game for both Oklahoma State and Texas , as they have each already lost 1 game. With that said, Im expecting this to be a gritty battle that will be won in the trenches in physical fashion, and could easily be decided on the last possession of the game.  Note:Texas HC Steve Sarkisian is just  3-13 SU away against opposition  with a better record.  Steve Sarkisian is 0-1 SU against Oklahoma State.

I know the Cowboys blew a lead to TCU last time out and lost in OT, but the this is a resilient program as they have 6 straight wins after a loss. 

OKLAHOMA ST is 9-2 ATS  vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. over the last 2 seasons.

OKLAHOMA ST is 43-26 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) since 1992.

 The Cowboys have won five of their past six and 11 of their past 14 on Homecoming.

OSU has won eight of the past 12 matchups with Texas, as well as two of the past three played in Stillwater. 

OSU is 7-2 in its past 10 and 16-7 in its past 23 games vs. AP Top 25 teams and 9- 4 in its last 13 games when both teams are ranked in the AP Top 25.

CFB home team vs. the money line (OKLAHOMA ST) - good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game, after scoring 31 points or more in 5 straight games are 40-2 L/5 seasons for a 95% conversion rate which obviously qualifies on this ATS line offering . 

Play on Oklahoma State to cover 

The Buffalo Bulls are currently in top form going 4-0 SUATS  and deserve respect here getting points vs visiting Toledo. The offense has averaged 36.5 PPG during that span including allowing back to back opponents to score 7 points. This kind of data and momentum gives us an edge on a possible SU win or a back door cover in competitive fashion. Note:  The Bulls have not allowed points in the fourth quarter in any of their last four games. The Bulls have outscored their opponents, 55-7, in the first half over the last two games.

Buffalo owns a solid  12-4-1 ATS mark as a home underdog, including 5-0-1 ATS against better than .700 foes. 

Buffalo is 3-0 ATS L/3 at home vs Toledo at home.The Bulls won the last meeting, 49-30, at UB Stadium in 2019.

CFB Road favorites (TOLEDO) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins are 13-39 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (BUFFALO) - after out-gaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 39-14 ATS for a 74% conversion rate.

Play on Buffalo Bulls to cover

UAB owns  the nation's third-ranked pass defense and will be key to slowing down the Western Kentucky offense that averages throwing the ball 44 times per game so far this season..This will be the fourth spread offense UAB has faced this season and they have faired very well as the  Blazers have allowed  opposition quarterbacks to complete  just 54 percent of their passes and have held opposing sides to an average of just  176.6 passing yards per game.

Note:  Western Kentucky has averaged 489 yards and 40 points per game, while UAB allows only  319 yards and 17 points per game. With said, this is a important game, and as almost is the case the better D will find a way to win.  On the flipside the Blazers are a strong rushing team behind McBride and one of the nations most cohesive Offensive lines, but so far this season WKU has been a dominant run stopping group, but Im betting that wont be the case today. 

The physicality of UABS defense and offense will be the difference maker tonight. 

Clark is 12-1 ATS  when the total is between 56.5 and 63 as the coach of UAB.Clark is 8-1 ATS  as a road underdog of 7 points or less as the coach of UAB.UAB is 6-0 ATS  in road games off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. UAB is 10-2 ATS L/12 as C USA dog.

WKU is 0-8 ATS as  single-digit conference chalk when facing an above .500 win percentage side.

Play on UAB to cover 

South Alabama has had a great start to their campaign garnering a 5-1 record to this point but in their two most recent games have been over rated by the lines-makers and failed to cover . Tonight against Troy (5-2) Im betting their dream season maybe abruptly upended. The Trojans have cashed 3 straight times against the spread and are on a 4 game winning run, and have cashed 5 straight times in this series and are not to be underestimated in their ferocity and ability to compete. Troy is also 3-0 ATS on the road this season and have cashed 4 straight as underdogs overall. 

S ALABAMA is 20-37 ATS after playing a game at home.

TROY is 9-1 ATS  vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons.

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (S ALABAMA) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game against opponent after out-gaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 51-108 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 68% conversion rate.

CFB road team (TROY) - poor rushing team - averaging 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry are 160-91 ATS L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate.

Play on Troy to cover 

 QB Wilson has not performed well for the Broncos since coming over from Seattle but he is  15-2-1 ATS in his  career  as an underdog vs opposition  coming off consecutive victories  like the Chargers , including a stellar  8-0 ATS mark in division games under those parameters. Look for the QB to finally get things going this week, and for a solid Denver D, to give the Chargers all they can handle in this Monday night spot play. 

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LA CHARGERS) - good offensive team - scoring 24 or more points/game, after a win by 3 or less points are 12-36 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Underdogs or pick (DENVER) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games are 36-12 ATS 5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Denver to cover 

Buffalo is great team and off a convincing 38-3 win vs Pittsburgh last week ,  but I have circled this game on my schedule for a while, and with the Chiefs getting points Im going with the underdog. Mahomes has matured alot after some key losses and in his career and now looks ready to ascend . Chiefs QB Mahomes is 9-0 ATS as a dog in his NFL career and Im betting he and his team have the edge in this tilt.  I know the kid had to work hard to get bring his team back from a deficit last time out in a 30-29 win, but he proved himself to be a winner, and nothing changes today.

Reid is 35-18 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of KANSAS CITY.

NFL Road favorites (BUFFALO) - solid team - out-gaining their opponents by 0.75 or more yards/play, after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 5-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Favorites (BUFFALO) - with an incredible offense - averaging 385 or more total yards/game, after gaining 450 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 6-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Chiefs to cover