The 49ers enter this game matching up very well vs their hosts the L A Rams as HC Sean McVay  has 6 straight win this this series and obviously knows how to get the job done vs Shanahan and company. Note:  SF QB Garappolo is 12-2 ATS as a dog of less than five points in his career and despite of average numbers in the play offs remains a dangerous QB who at any time could explode for a big day. I know  Rams QB Stafford has looked tremendous for the Rams in the post season, but hes a very streaky player, and here against a strong SF D that in its best form the of the season, the sledding could get very rough. 

SAN FRANCISCO is 8-2 ATS  vs. sub par passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season this season. SAN FRANCISCO is 7-0 ATS   in January games over the last 3 seasons. 

49ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.49ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC.

SAN FRANCISCO is 20-8 ATS vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game in the second half of the season. 

NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (18-23 PPG) after 8 or more games, after scoring and allowing 14 pts or less points are 31-9 ATS L/39 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Underdog is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

Play on the SF 49ers to cover 

AFC Playoffs - Divisional

These  two top tier teams, go head to head in the play offs and Im betting the difference maker will be home field advantage. The Chiefs knocked off the Bills in last years play offs and despite of the Bills getting revenge earlier this season still matchup very well here according to my power rankings. Note:KC QB  Murray  is 7-2 in his play off history, with both losses vs the king Tom Brady. Bills are  3-0 at home and 0-3 away in the playoffs under Sean McDermott.

BUFFALO is 3-13 ATS  in road games after 4 or more consecutive wins. 

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (KANSAS CITY) - off 5 or more consecutive overs, excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game are 26-6 ATS L/39 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

  NFL road team in the Divisional Round of the playoffs coming off a victory of 25-plus points (Buffalo) if  going against a .750 or less opponent (KC) are just 0-7 ATS dating back 42 seasons. 

.Play on the KC Chiefs to cover 

NFC Playoffs - Divisional

TB  super star and king of the NFL QB Tom Brady is 0-2 just  SUATS vs the Rams while he has been with the  Bucs  with both defeats coming as a favorite. It's never an easy decision to play against Brady but I feel we have an edge taking points with a Rams  side that slowly pushed itself in top form as the season progressed. Buccaneers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as a favorite.

Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC.Rams are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall and are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog.

NFL Road teams (LA RAMS) - in a game involving two excellent offensive teams (>=370 YPG) after 8+ games, after out-gaining opp by 100 or more total yards in their previous game are 34-10 ATS L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate.

Rams are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings.Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.Rams are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Tampa Bay.

Play on the LA Rams to cover 

AFC Playoffs - Divisional

Bengals second-year quarterback Joe Burrow is the real deal . He set a  franchise record  in passing yards (4,611) and touchdown passes (34) this season while completing an NFL-best 70.4 percent of his attempts. I know the return of Titans star RB Derrick  Henry is expected  , but he will have a ton of rust on him and he is possibly still not 100%. It being touted that burrows does not have NFL play off experience, but he proved the naysayers wrong last week, and its not like he has not completed for championships before , so I doubt very much he will be intimidated. Advantage Bengals getting points. 

Bengals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.Bengals are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Bengals are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.CINCINNATI is 12-4 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.

Titans are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff home games.

NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TENNESSEE) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after 3 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 13-37 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

Play on the Cincinnati to cover 

NFC Playoffs - Wild Card

I was not going to touch this one, but when the line got down to a FG I had to bite on what Im betting is the better team playing at home.  

First off Murray does not look 100% , and while Stafford is probably also not in great shape overall, because of the some of the punishment he took hes in a better portion to succeed tonight as he does not need to consistently scramble to make plays. 

The Rams have won and covered 5 of the L/6 meetings and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation tonight. ( Rams are also 8-1-1 ATS L/10 in this series) Favorite is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.

ARIZONA is 1-8 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more  yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.Kingsbury is 4-13 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season as the coach of ARIZONA.

LA RAMS are 25-13 ATS  against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

NFLUnderdogs of +140 to +325 vs. the money line (ARIZONA) - after 1 or more consecutive losses, when playing on Monday night are 2-31 L/5 seasons for a go against 94% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at -9.4 which qualifies on this ATS line. 

Play on the LA Rams to cover 

NFC Playoffs - Wild Card

The Cowboys explosive  offense goes against a staunch defense ranked second in the league against the rush and fifth in the league in sacks with 48. On the flip side the 49ers, have won 8 of their L/10 overall and must also  not be underestimated from a offensive perspective behind Jimmy Garoppolo and have an overall edge here according to my projections. 

DALLAS is 1-8 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. 

Dallas is 3-10 SU/ATS in the playoffs dating back 25 seasons , including 1-6 ATS as a favorite. 

DALLAS is 14-34 ATS  after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games . 

NFL Road teams (SAN FRANCISCO) - in a game involving two excellent offensive teams (370 or more  YPG) after 8+ games, after outgaining opp by 100 or more total yards in their previous game are 33-10 ATS L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Home teams (DALLAS) - solid team - outgaining their opponents by 50 or more yards/game, after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 23-52 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate.

Play on SF 49ers to cover 

The Bills beat up on the Pats towards the end of the season, but that was a learning experience for Mac Jones and company, and with a future HOF coach like Bellichick on the sidelines Im confident  positive adjustments can be made. We have to remember prior to that the Pats took a 14-10 win on the road  in Buffalo on Dec 16th where the franchise is 15-3 ATS L/18 visits.  Note:  NEW ENGLAND L/109 games as a road underdog  and have seen the average ppg diff click in at -1.7. 

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (BUFFALO) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 9-39 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against  81% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL  Underdogs or pick (NEW ENGLAND) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games in the second half of the season are 31-8 ATS L/39 seasons for a  80% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (NEW ENGLAND) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games are 29-7 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Road team is 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 meetings.Underdog is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings. 

Play on New England Pats to cover 

CFP Championship Game - Lucas Oil Stadium - Indianapolis, IN

I know it's never an easy decision to bet against Alabama , but I feel strongly this is Georgias time. The Bulldogs were head and shoulders the best team in College Football this season . Yes, they did lose to Saban and company allowing 30.4 ppg more than theyre season average But now with that loss out of the way Im betting Georgia will feel the need to be more aggressive with Alabama rather than show them to much respect , which was part of the reason they lost last time they played. Note: GEORGIA is 20-8 ATSL/28 in road games revenging an upset loss against opponent as a favorite. 

GEORGIA is 52-33 ATS L/85 in road games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season.

Saban is 7-19 ATS L/26 vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game as the coach of ALABAMA.

CFB team (GEORGIA) - good rushing team (190-230 RY/game) against an average rushing team (140-190 RY/game) after 7+ games, after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game are 51-17 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Georgia to cover 

 The Rams QB Stafford  is not seeing the field well as was evident last week when the threw  another  pick-six  , and now has  seven turnovers in the last three trips to the gridiron . Stafford is  infamously streaky and his form is not where it should be entering this game against the SF 49ers.   . Meanwhile, the Niners who have won the stats battles in 7 of their L/8 overall have urgency attached to this affair and will be very motivated to snatch a SU win as a victory or a loss by the Saints,  will get them a post season wild card position . From a matchup perspective the Niners took out  Los Angeles, 31-10, as a 3.5-point home underdog back in November, and  have been a ATS machine for their backers after they  covered  the L/3  meetings in this series.  SAN FRANCISCO is 5-0 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (SAN FRANCISCO) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 37-8 L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL team vs the money line (LA RAMS) - revenging a road loss against opponent by 14 points or more, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 24-3 L/39 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LA RAMS) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 9-38 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the SF 49ers to cover 

Both these teams are done for the season, after today, and Im betting we wont see alot of motivation other than the revenge scenario the Gemn have for a 1 point loss they suffered to the Football team back in Sept. What I do expect is for both coaches to try to find a way to finish their season with some positives, via some slight structural renovations to their systems. In this type of affair, taking points with a home dog is a strong wagering opportunity . Note:  NY GIANTS are 9-1 ATS in home games revenging an extremely close loss against opponent by 3 points or less. 

Football Team are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite.

Football Team are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC East.

Football Team are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY GIANTS) - slow starting team - outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 17 points or less in 3 straight games are 1160-96 L/39 seasons for a 62% conversion rate.

NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (WASHINGTON) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing 1 or less turnovers/game, after a game where they forced no turnovers are 26-56 ATS L/10 seasons for last 10 seasons for a go against  68% conversion rate for bettors.

 North Dakota State has a 47-6 record in true road games since 2011, and that record is 57-6 including 10 neutral site games over the same span. NDSU has a 40-3 record in the FCS playoffs. North Dakota State has won a record eight FCS national championships and is making a record ninth appearance in the title game. The Bison are 13-2 overall in playoff title games with the only losses coming in the Division II championships in 1981 to Texas State (42-13) and 1984 to Troy (18-17). Needless to say this storied FCS program knows how to win. 

 Key today vs Montana State: North Dakota State has the No. 3 rushing offense in FCS averaging 273.6 yards per game. NDSU has seven backs averaging better than 5.0 yards per carry, and the team's 6.13 yards per carry is fifth best in school history and nothing will change here today in what Im betting will be a over powering  performance vs a strong MSU D that is vulnerable to big gain on the ground vs this type of opposition . 

 North Dakota State crushed Montana State in the 2018 and 2019 playoffs : The Bison  took a 38-3 halftime lead in the 2018 second round and cruised, 52-10, then smashed them again  to a 29-7 halftime lead in the 2019 semis before rolling 42-14.  This might be a better version of Montana state but they still are in my opinion DD dogs despite of the line. 

Montana State averaged just 19 points per game over its final five regular-season contests, but in the play offs came alive under a backup QB Mellott, but after a 3 week lay off cohesiveness will be a problem vs this type of D. 

North Dakota State to cover 

  Cleveland is off two very close losses by 2 points each time and are desperate for a victory and despite of now being eliminated from the playoffs but  are still a side that needs to finish strongly and play spoilers . Meanwhile, Pittsburgh was crushed by the Chiefs last time out , but still can win the AFC North. Needless to say this is a big game for the Steelers but because of their ineptness this  will be a grinding affair with getting  points in my opinion being golden. Browns are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games in January.

Note: the Steelers have now been held without a TD in the first half of 5 consecutive games and these slow starts are a game killers and Im betting it could easily rare its ugly head again tonight. Plus I cant help but feel Steelers QB Ben Rothlisberger is not longer a top tier pivot as father time  remains undefeated. 

Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Monday games.Steelers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite.Steelers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. Steelers are 0-6 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

NFL Underdogs on the opening l vs. the money line (PITTSBURGH) - off a road loss, when playing on Monday night are 1-24 L/5 seasons for a go against 96% conversion rate for bettors. 

 NFL team vs the money line (PITTSBURGH) - average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 5-30 L/5 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Road teams (CLEVELAND) - off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season. are 27-6 ATS L/29 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play in Cleveland to cover 

The Seahawks are not going to play offs, and will now be in a emotional down situation here this week vs a rejuvenated Detroit side that will motivated to finish their season on a strong note. Note: Seattle probably does not deserve a play off spot anyway, considering they have lost the stats battles in 12 of 15 games.  this seasons ,by an average -82 net ypg. 

Seattle is 0-5 ATS in their last five battles against the NFC North.  The Lions are 5-1 ATS record in NFC West game and have covered four straight vs NFC.  Lions are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. Seahawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 17.

DETROIT is 6-0 ATS  vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season this season. DETROIT is 8-2 ATS  in games played on turf this season.

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (SEATTLE) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 15-45 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against  75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Seattle to cover 

Since star RB   Derrick Henry  went on the IR the Titans have been in a bit of nose dive, and until he returns things wont get much better including today against a up trending Dolphins side that is on a 7 game win streak. Note : NFL sides on a 7 game win streak,  are on a  12-1 ATS run  when coming off a non-division victory. (Miami beat NO last week 20-3). 

Tennessee has had problems scoring since Henry went down, and recently during a 5 game run have averaged just 15.8 ppg in offense. On the flipside the Fins have allowed just one side more than 17 points in their L/7 games overall. 

MIAMI is 12-3 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. MIAMI is 9-1 ATS  after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons. 

TENNESSEE is 20-35 ATS  as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

NFL team vs the money line (TENNESSEE) - average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 5-35 L/5 seasons for a go against  86% conversion rate. 

Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

Play on Miami to cover 

The Jags are on a 7 game losing streak and have failed to cover 6 straight times, but here I am recommending we take the points . This offering from a mathematical standpoint according to my projections is a almost a full FG off , giving us value taking points. Last week the Pats got a reality check against the Bills in a loss and  QB Mac Jones showed his relative immaturity in that loss. Desperation and some sort of redemption for this Jaguars side Im betting has them leaving everything on the field this Sunday. 

Jaguars have covered 3 of their L/4 as 13 or more points pups dating back to last season. 

Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (JACKSONVILLE) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 37-7 L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Jacksonville Jaguars to cover 

Sugar Bowl - Ceasars Superdome - New Orleans, LA

 Baylor's  is a top tier two way side, controlling the ball for 31:37 per game and that will be the difference maker here today vs Ole Miss. 

BAYLOR is 9-0 ATS  vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 34 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons.BAYLOR is 8-1 ATS  versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 450 or more  yards/game over the last 3 seasons.BAYLOR is 10-1 ATS  vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 3 seasons.BAYLOR is 9-1 ATS  in road games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

SEC teams are 3-6 ATS in the last nine Sugar Bowls.

Play on Baylor to cover 

Rose Bowl - Rose Bowl - Pasadena, CA

Ohio State has something to prove here after being defeated by Michigan to end their season. Im betting we see them at their best here vs a good but not quite ready for prime time Utah Utes side. I know some key players will be out for Ohio State as they prepare for the NFL draft but their replacements are top tier recruits and will be out to show off their abilities. 

OHIO ST is 9-1 ATS L/10 in road games off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite of 6 or more points. (Lost to Michigan 42-27 to end their season)

OHIO ST is 29-13 ATS  versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25 or more  rushing yards/carry.

CFB Neutral field favorites vs. the money line (OHIO ST) - after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games, with an inexperienced QB as starter 32-2 L/29 seasons for a 94% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at  +16.6  . 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UTAH) - excellent offensive team (6.2  or more YPP) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) are 48-81 ATS L/5 seasons for a 63%  go against conversion rate. 

Ohio State to cover 

 Citrus Bowl - Camping World Stadium - Orlando, FL

The Hawkeyes   and Wildcats  use their ground attacks as their no1 option to move the chains and both  play strong defense . Both are patient and can force mistakes. Both play similar styles but Im betting the Wildcats are the superior side. 

KENTUCKY is 7-0 ATS  after playing a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.

 Bowl teams that scored 3 or less points in their last game are 1-11 ATS L/12 opportunities. (Iowa lost 42-3 to Michigan to end their season)

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (IOWA) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game against opponent after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 9-30 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Neutral field favorites vs. the money line (KENTUCKY) - after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games, with an inexperienced QB as starter 32-2 L/29 seasons for a 94% conversion rate for bettors  with the average ppg diff clicking in at +16.6 ppg which qualifies on this offered ATS line. 

Play on Kentucky to cover 

Fiesta Bowl - State Farm Stadium - Glendale, AZ

The Cowboys were in my humble opinion the most under rated team in the nation this season, behind a top tier D, and explosive offense . The Cowboys were also  5-0 SU/ATS on the road this season and must be respected here away from home vs a Notre Dame side that will be without their top  RB Kyren Williams and their best defensive player DB Kyle Hamilton . 

Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 bowl games are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Bowl games. Cowboys are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games as an underdog. Cowboys are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games.

NOTRE DAME is 14-33 ATS L/47 versus good defensive teams - allowing 4.5 or less yards/play. 

OKLAHOMA ST is 8-1 ATS  after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Oklahoma State to cover 

Early on this season, the Lions looked like Big 10 Contenders , but some close loses to top tier competition looked to take the wind out of them down the stretch. Im now betting we see Penn State  back in top form . I know Arkansas looked strong down the stretch but their defense remains vulnerable and could easily be their Achilles heel in this Bowl tilt. Razorbacks are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. 

PENN ST is 21-9 ATS L/30  in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing  7.5 or less  yards per return . PENN ST is 7-0 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.  Franklin is 8-1 ATS   after 3 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers as the coach of PENN ST.  .Nittany Lions are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 non-conference games.

CFB Neutral field favorites vs. the money line (ARKANSAS) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 13-22 L/10 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Penn State to cover 

Georgia is the best team in the nation, and deserve to be 10 point favs according to my projections. I know Michigan has had a fine season, but this is a special SEC  group of Bulldogs and they deserve the ultimate respect. I know anything can happen in one game, and upsets are possible but 99 out 100 times this Georgia team comes out with a conclusive victory according to my projections. Miracles are beautiful things to behold, but Im betting today wont bring any Sister Lucia like enlightenment to the Orange Bowl.  Note: SEC Bowl favorites are 9-3 ATS L/12 versus the Big Ten. 

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (GEORGIA) - with a good rushing D - allowing 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry, after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 61-30 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Georgia to cover 

Cotton Bowl Classic - AT&T Stadium - Arlington, TX

Oh boy here I go Im going to bet against Nick Saban's Alabama. Im not only feeling brave, but confident. I know old Nick has a reputation as virtually unbeatable, but this is a  big spread and  the advantage must go to an undefeated side that has proven itself consistently against top tier opposition covering  their L/7 vs above .900 opposition like Alabama. The Bearcats were also 7-0 ATS against above.500 foes this season. Bottom line: Cincinnatis D is very strong, even when considering this type of explosive offensive  opposition. Note: The Bearcats own the No. 1  Team Passing Efficiency Defense, and rank  No. 3  in the nation in Red Zone Defense. This Im betting keeps them competitive enough to get us the cover. 

CINCINNATI is 9-0 ATS vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5  or less yards per return over the last 2 seasons.CINCINNATI is 9-1 ATS  vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 34 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons.CINCINNATI is 8-0 ATS   after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game over the last 2 seasons.CINCINNATI is 10-1 ATS  vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Cincinnati to cover 

Sun Bowl - Sun Bowl - El Paso, TX

Im a fan of Central Michigan head coach Jim McElwain, who  has a money making  12-5 SUATS   coming off a bye  including 7-1 ATS  run when coming off a victory. He has really put together a tough and explosive group together here with the Chips and deserves respect for his work and what is top tier preparation levels. They enter this game on a 4-0 SU/ATS run while averaging 41 points per game and Im betting will hang with their PAC 10 OPPONENTS . 

Pac-12’s  sides like Washington State are  1-23 ATS in bowl games against opposition  coming off a win . 

C MICHIGAN is 13-3 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons. WASHINGTON ST is 0-6 ATS  after a bye week over the last 3 seasons

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (C MICHIGAN) - after going under the total by more than 21 points in their previous game, in the second half of the season are 39-20 ATS L/5 seasons for 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Central Michigan to cover

The Badgers looked strong down the stretch winning 7 of their L/8 games and deserve respect here vs Arizona State tonight . I know ASU have been strong defensively, but the Badgers are from a conference with some hardcore top tier defenses, and  wont be phased . With that said,  I really feel the Badgers have an edge, on both sides of the ball. 

The Badgers have only failed to cover 1 of their L/7  postseason tilts . From a historical view:  Vegas Bowl  has seen the  favorites, cash 7 of the L/10 times. Wisconsin has won 7 of their L/8 Bowl games SU. 

Note: [RB] 12/09/2021 - Rachaad White is OUT Thursday vs Wisconsin ( Personal )

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (WISCONSIN) - with a good rushing D - allowing 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry, after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 61-30 L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Wisconsin to cover 

Peach Bowl - Mercedes-Benz Stadium - Atlanta, GA

Pitt won’t have  their super star QB  Kenny Pickett  tonight as he opts out to to prepare for the NFL draft while Michigan State won’t have their prize RB Kenneth Walker III  in the lineup. But like I have said many times before RBs are easily replaced , while big time QBs are not easily replaced. Advantage Michigan State.

Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.

Spartans are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games. Spartans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Bowl games.

Big 10 have  owned the ACC in bowl  games, going  7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.

Michigan State to cover 

Air Force as we know are going to pound the the ball via the run   behind an  offense that averaged 341.4 YPG with their ground attack this season, and nothing will change today, vs a Louisville side that Im betting will have their hands full from the get go in this Bowl tilt. 

Note: Louisville ended their season on a down note getting pummeled 52-21 by Kentucky allowing 352 yards on the ground. LOUISVILLE is 0-7 ATS L/7 in road games off a home loss by 14 or more points. 

AIR FORCE is 7-1 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. this season.

Note:Neutral field underdogs (AIR FORCE) - outrushing their opponents by 100 or more yards/game on the season, after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 3 straight games are 31-8 L/29 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LOUISVILLE) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game against opponent after out gaining  opp by 125 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 9--31 ATS L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Air Force to cover 

Auburn gave a top tier Alabama team a decent battle losing by a 24-22 count to finish their season, and must be respected here against a Houston team that is talented but not of the same talent level as their SEC opponent . It will be the superior D, of the tigers that Im betting will be the difference maker. 

HOUSTON is 1-11 ATS L/12  in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing  7.5 or less yards per return .  

Houston from a historical level is just  0-4 SUATS in the last four bowl appearances,. Also the AAC is a ugly 0-13 ATS as bowl pup  of 7 or less points. 

Holgorsen is 6-21 ATS after a bye week in all games he has coached since 1992.Holgorsen is 2-10 ATS  n December games in all games he has coached since 1992.

Play on Auburn to cover 

Jared Goff  went  21-of-26 for 216 yards and three touchdowns in  the Lions  30-12 win against the  Arizona  Cardinals last week as 13-point home underdog, which was the Lions 2nd victory in 3 games. Now with momentum on their sides, Im betting they once again stand tall against a Atlanta team that has not liked playing in their new digs , where they are 0-5 this season while averaging just 13.2 ppg in offense while allowing 28 ppg which clicks in at - 14.8 ppg diff. Nothing comes easy for the Falcons and if they break their home losing streak it wont come easily if at all which has me recommending we take the points here.

 ATLANTA is 1-9 ATS  in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. Falcons are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC.

Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC and  are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. 

Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings. Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. 

Play on the Detroit Lions to cover 

Ok Get ready this is a plug your nose special. Im betting the stench of the Urban Meyer experiment has cleared. With that said,  Jacksonville will be ready to start a new chapter and in the short term at least show some motivational progress vs a Jets team that could also use some air  freshener  and a proverbial deep cleaning.  Both these teams struggle to score, but the difference maker comes on defense where I feel the edge goes to the Jags . Note: Jacksonville is 8-0 ATS as a underdog against AFC East opposition , including 4-0 SUATS L/4. Jets are 3-10 ATS L/14 at home as 4 or less point home favs. 

NY JETS are 1-10 ATS L/10 in home games vs. struggling  teams - outscored by 10+ points per game on the season.  NY JETS are 0-7 ATS  after allowing 25 points or more in 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons. NY JETS are 4-16 ATS  off a road cover where the team lost as an underdog.

NFL  team vs the money line (NY JETS) - bad team - outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 30 points or more in 3 straight games are 3-25 L/5 seasons for a 89% go against conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Home teams (NY JETS) - average offensive team (4.9 to 5.4 YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.4 to 5.8 YPP) are 20-47 ATS L/5 seasons for go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Jacksonville to cover 

After a fast start to their season, the Cardinals are now just 3-4 SU/ATS L/7 and not in good form entering this tilt vs the under rated Colts. It seems ever since JJ Watt went down so did the chemistry of the Arizona  defense. With some key injures on offense for the Cards ie( Hopkins), and  a bruised and banged up QB Murray looking less than 100% the Colts look like a very viable option here behind star RB Johnathon Taylor. Im betting the Colts pound their way to a road win and continue their upward momentum after ending the Pats 7 game win streak last time out. Note: Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog. Colts are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.

Injury updates: Colts 3 of 5  starting offensive lineman  will miss this game -Quinton Nelson (COVID list), Mark Glowinski (COVID list), and Ryan Kelly (personal)- which has moved this line . When handicapping this game 2 of these guys were part of my assessments . It must be noted that the replacements for the Colts are fresher, almost equally talented as the starters.

INDIANAPOLIS is 9-1 ATS  in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons. INDIANAPOLIS is 9-1 ATS   in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons. Reich is 11-0 ATS in road games after having won 2 out of their last 3 games as the coach of INDIANAPOLIS.

ARIZONA is 0-7 ATS   versus good offensive teams - averaging 350  or more yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. ARIZONA is 1-8 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Cardinals are 9-23 ATS in their last 32 games as a home favorite.Cardinals are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games.

NFL Underdogs vs. the money line (ARIZONA) - after allowing 30 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half are 2-37 L/38 seasons for a go against  95% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Indianapolis to cover 

Camellia Bowl - Cramton Bowl - Montgomery, AL

Senior quarterback Drew Plitt Im betting will be the key for Ball State Cardinal on Christmas Day.  He enters this game with a 124.9 quarterback rating while completing 60.5 % of his passes for 2,248 yards with 17 touchdowns . I know what perceptions are, but according to my cross conference power rankings Ball State matches up well vs Georgia State. 

BALL ST is 13-3 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. BALL ST is 7-0 ATS  in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons.

CFB Underdogs of +155 to +300 vs. the money line (BALL ST) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game, in December games are 19-7 SU L/29 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (BALL ST) - after going under the total by more than 21 points in their previous game, in the second half of the season are 38-19 L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Ball State to cover 

Gasparilla Bowl - Raymond James Stadium - Tampa, FL

Florida melted in the Heat of Gainesville this fall. HC Mullen  and the core of his assistants is gone, and were they're betting backers worst nightmare going 0-6 ATS down the stretch. On the flip-side HC Malzahn is experienced going against  SEC sides, like Florida when he was with Auburn, so he wont feel overwhelmed by this sub standard group of Gators. Note: Malzahn 13-2 SU L/15 vs above  .500 or less SEC opposition , including 7-1 SUATS on the road and get my support here getting points. 

FLORIDA is 1-8 ATS  in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UCF) - after going under the total by more than 21 points in their previous game, in the second half of the season are 38-19 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate.

Play on UCF to cover 

This is like a defacto home game for North Texas as Denton is just down the highway  from the Frisco Bowl( maybe in hr in traffic)  With that said, the Mean Green enter this game with a lot of momentum as they finished their season on 6-0 SU/ATS run and must be respected here as what must be looked at as home  underdogs. 

RedHawks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.RedHawks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. CUSA.RedHawks are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 non-conference games.

NORTH TEXAS is 6-0 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.NORTH TEXAS is 6-0 ATS  vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse this season.NORTH TEXAS is 7-0 ATS  after playing a conference game this season.

Play on North Texas to cover 

Armed Forces Bowl - Amon G. Carter Stadium - Fort Worth, TX

 The much maligned D of the Tigers actually matches up well against Army's smallish offensive line ( no one over 290 pounds). I know Missouri had problems slowing the run this season, but they do matchup well here according to power rankings. Meanwhile, Army's defensive line is a big strong group, but they are substantially slower than the Tigers offense, and Im betting they have problems slowing this superior athletic SEC group. I know the popular pick in Bowl season are military colleges behind their triple option, but this is just to big spread according to my projections making getting points here golden.Black Knights are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.

CFB Neutral field favorites vs. the money line (ARMY) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 10-20  L/10 seasons for a go against  67% conversion rate. 

Play on Missouri to cover 

San Diego State has a top tier defensive unit  , allowing just 319.5 YPG, ranked 14th in the country and that will be the difference maker here in this Bowl Game against CUSA opponent UTSA. Conference USA sides went 0-7 SU Last season, and Im betting the negative run continues today.

SAN DIEGO ST is 18-7 ATS  in road games vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 34 or more points/game.

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (UTSA) - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games are 19-45 ATS L/10 seasons for a 71% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on San Diego State to cover 

Kent State behind  senior quarterback Dustin Crum is a dangerous  two-way threat ,  as he finished second in the MAC with an average of 273.5 yards per game total offense. He passed for 2,922 yards and 16 touchdowns   and rushed for 633 yards and 11 more TDS. Add to that Running back   Marquez Cooper who was  fifth in the league with 1,080 yards rushing and had 11 touchdowns which contributes to an explosive  offense that is averaging  243 yards rushing and 237 yards passing per game. I know Wyoming has a strong D, but Kent State is a shock and awe type side, that will be hard to keep up with. Cowboys are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. it must be noted that the Cowboys lost 38-14 to what was thought to be an inferior Hawaii team to end the season, and their consistency this year was non existent losing to sides like New Mexico  and don't inspire me with their game preparation. Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home.

WYOMING is 6-17 ATS L/23 in road games after a loss by 21 or more points . 

Lewis is 12-4 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of KENT ST.

Play on Kent State to cover 

I know how strong a side TB is but after last weeks record setting event behind future HOG QB Tom Brady that saw them pull out a win in OT vs Buffalo Im betting  will now have this team in a natural letdown spot.  Meanwhile, Saints  remain in the playoff  hunt after their  victory on the road vs  the Jets last week and have motivation and momentum entering this tilt. Note: The Saints are  6-1 ATS in their last seven division r away games. I know which side is the better group, but the great thing about spread betting is that there are edges to be had, taking points with under rated sides. This Im betting is one of them. 

NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS  in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.NEW ORLEANS is 9-1 ATS  in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more yards/game over the last 3 seasons.

NFL  away team in a tilt  in Sunday Night events  that is coming off a victory of more than 10 points  and than going against  opposition  coming off a pair of wins who won 10 or more games last year are 11-1-1 ATS L/41 seasons. 

NFLHome favorites (TAMPA BAY) - with an incredible offense - averaging 385 or more total yards/game, after gaining 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 12-36 L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on New Orleans to cover 

 The Broncos  honored  the late Demaryius Thomas who  suddenly died at age 33 the week of this game vs Detroit. The Broncos left everything on the field that day as they took out the banged up  Lions by a 38-10 count. Now in a huge emotional letdown state I betting they will not have the energy needed to get the.cover here vs a Bengals side that is desperate for a win. Note: Bengals QB Joe Burrows is a perfect 3-0 ATS when this team is off 2 consecutive losses.

Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.Bengals are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Denver.

Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC. 

Cincinnati to cover 

Urban Meyer’s  short and ugly tenure here in Jacksonville looks to be almost completed .  Its been a horrendous season ,  Meyer has blamed his coaching staff for the problems which has put the entire team in disarray. The Jags have now lost 5 straight and really don't deserve to be this big a favorite , not even against another slumping side the Houston Texans. ....Advantage Texans. 

HOUSTON is 14-4 ATS L/18 after scoring 14 points or less in 2 straight games.

JACKSONVILLE is 0-6 ATS in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

JACKSONVILLE is 0-6 ATS after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game over the last 2 seasons. JACKSONVILLE is 2-16 ATS L/18 in home games off 3 or more consecutive unders.

NFL Underdogs or pick (HOUSTON) - after a game where they committed no turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 25-3 ATS L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Texans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Jacksonville. The underdog has cashed 4 of the L/5 meetings.

Play on Houston to cover 

Indianapolis has won 4 of their L/5 with the one loss coming to defending champion Tampa Bay by a 38-31 count. Meanwhile, the Pats have been the storyline in the NFL this season, as Bill Belichick cements his future HOF status. The Pats enter this game on a 6 game road winning run, but with said, all good and bad streaks must eventually come to an end and Im betting thats the case here in Indy today.  Ive kept a close eye on the Colts, and after watching them decimate the Bills, Ive come to the conclusion that they are very under rated and with the publics attention squarely on the Pats Ill lay the light lumber with the home side at under a FG. Right or wrong the sharp money will flow into the Colts column. Colts are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

 Home team has covered 5 of the L/6 meetings in this series.

INDIANAPOLIS is 11-2 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. over the last 2 season.

NFL  team (NEW ENGLAND) - off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog, when playing on a Saturday are 9-32 ATS L/38 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Indianapolis to cover 

Utah State has a had a very successful season and are off pounding a strong San Diego State  side to win the Mountain West title and they must not be underestimated here vs Oregon State. Despite of talent divergence between the PAC 12 and Mountain West from a general perspective, the Aggies have shown themselves an above average group, and Im betting will be competitive today behind a explosive offense. Note: Oregon state has been below average on  D this season and have almost no pass rush, which puts them at a disadvantage against this type of offensive unit. 

Pac-12 bowl teams coming off a victory like Oregon State are just  1-21 ATS L/6 seasons. 

Play on Utah State to cover 

Central Michigan blasted E.Michigan in their last game of the season by a 31-10 count. The team looked lethargic, and HC Creighton was not happy with the performance. Im betting they bounce back here in their Bowl appearance vs a public fav. (Liberty)  Note: Eastern Michigan HC Creighton has covered 14 straight times in his career as a road underdog when coming off a loss. E MICHIGAN is 20-7 ATS in road games off a road blowout loss by 21 points . Creighton is also 3-0 ATS L/3 Bowl appearances with W.Mich. 

E MICHIGAN is 14-2 ATS L/16 in road games vs. good passing teams like Liberty averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. 

Liberty finished their season failing to cover 3 straight and are fade material here for me today vs under rated and disrespected MAC side.

Play on Eastern Michigan to cover 

According to my power rankings UAB is highly under rated under HC  Bill Clark  who has built the Blazers into a strong cohesive unit.  UAB has looked tough as nails against top tier sides with a .800 or better record  cashing  7 of 9 opportunities  with 5 of those coming in the underdog role.  Considering how strong this Blazers D is allowing just 18.7 ppg on the road this season  Im betting BYU will not easily win this game if at all. 

UAB is 6-0 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. this season. BYU is 0-6 ATS  in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UAB) - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival against opponent after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more are 61-23 ATS L/29 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on UAB to cover 

Bahamas Bowl - Thomas Robinson Stadium - Nassau

Toledo is being over rated here, under  HC Candle the Rockets are just 0-3/SU/ATS in Bowl Games and this season going against sides with a .500 record or better failed to cover 4 of 5 times. I know Midd Tennessee State is without their starting QB for this tilt, but are still built to hang with a side like the Rockets when factoring in a  complete depth perspective on both sides of the ball. 

TOLEDO is 9-22 ATS  in road games after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins.TOLEDO is 23-45 ATS L/68  vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better. 

Play on Middle Tennessee State to cover 

The Chiefs  during their current six-game winning streak, have forced 16 turnovers and allowed an average of 311.7 yards and just 10.9 ppg. The D, is merging at a high level with the offense, and in their current form are in top form and a formidable opponent for the Chargers . Add to that Reid and company have revenge on board for a loss suffered in last September back in KC and you have a viable favorite to back this Thursday night. Reid is 21-8 ATS in road games revenging a home loss against opponent in all games he has coached .

The Chiefs have won seven straight road games against the Chargers. 

Note:  Road favorites in ’ Thursday games have  won by an average of  -10.1 points per game this season. Rinse and repeat bet here in motion  with the Favorite. 

KANSAS CITY is 7-0 ATS vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game over the last 2 seasons.KANSAS CITY is 7-0 ATS after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Reid is 7-0 ATS  after 3 straight wins by 10 or more points as the coach of KANSAS CITY.

LA CHARGERS are 2-13 ATS after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.LA CHARGERS are 1-9 ATS  after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Home teams (LA CHARGERS) - out-gaining opponent by 70 or more passing yards/game on the season, after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 13-36 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on KC Chiefs to cover 

Arizona QB Murray is an exciting athlete, and this sometimes overshadows his teams overall performances especially on D , where they have been out-yarded in 3 of their L/5 games. Add to that Arizonas 1-7 ATS record in its L/7 tilts  as a division host, and you have what Im betting against is an over rated side. Meanwhile, the Rams after a rough run -came out last time out with a get right effort winning by a 37-7 vs Jacksonville and now have momentum heading in this prime time tilt. 

Note: Arizona has failed to cover  10 of their L/12 at  home on Monday Nights . Cardinals HC Kingsbury is 0-4 SU/ATS L/4 at home as a 6 or less point favorite. 

McVay is 10-2 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games as the coach of LA RAMS. McVay is 21-11 ATS  in road games against conference opponents as the coach of LA RAMS. Rams are 4-0 SU/ATS L/4 divisional battles and have won their L/2 visits to Arizona and are 8-1 ATS L/9 meetings overall in this series.

ARIZONA is 0-6 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 350  or more yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. ARIZONA is 0-6 ATS  in home games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons

NFL Road underdogs or pick (LA RAMS) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games are 27-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Rams to cover 

This tilt  behind top tier sides Buffalo and Tampa Bay has the makings of game that will decided late and by one score, most probably a FG according to the linesmakers, making getting the hook with the points a strong opportunity for bankroll expansion. Tom Brady is the marquee name in this tilt, and lives with a cloak of invincibility around him, but he's not made of titanium, and eventually father time will get the best of him. Actually Ive noticed his legs have let him down on more than one occasion the last few seasons, and today vs a fast and explosive Buffalo D, his lack of mobility wont allow him the time he usually gets . What Im saying is that if TB wins it wont come easily. Advantage on the line goes to the Bills. 

BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

The Buccaneers have been favored by 3.5 points or more 10 times this season and are 5-5 ATS in those contests. Buccaneers are 3-10-2 ATS in their last 15 games in Week 14.

 Buffalo is 5-2 overall, and 5-2 against the spread, on the road.The Bills are 4-2 ATS as 3.5-point underdogs or more on the road.

NFL Underdogs or pick (BUFFALO) - off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 48-19 ATS L/39 seasons for a 72%. conversion rate for bettors. Note: Bills are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.

Play on Buffalo to cover

Both Cincinnati and San Francisco are both off losses. I thought the 49ers should have won their game vs Seattle , and deserve respect here on the road as essentially a pickem vs a Cincinnati team that is off a less than cohesive loss, and downtrending in my power rankings, especially with QB Joe Burrows hand injury( pinky finger). Todays difference maker will come via both sides offenses where the Bengals rank 24th in their passing game  and just  20th with their ground attack. While the 49ers are fourth via the pass  and ranked  sixth with their run game. 

SAN FRANCISCO is 21-7 ATS off an upset loss as a road favorite

CINCINNATI is 0-6 ATS  in home games versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more  yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Play on San Francisco to cover 

QB Cam Newton  of the Panthers looked horrendous last time out going   5-for-21 for 92 yards in a 33-10 loss to the Dolphins and the coaching staff said they wont make any changes this week. This reminds me of statement by Albert Einstein, that went something like this " doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results is a form of insanity. Yes, maybe Im exaggerating a bit, but thats how I feel about that decision, and feel strongly that the Falcons prove me right this week, at least from a cover standpoint. Note: The Last 14 times that Newton has been the favorite the Panthers have only covered 3 times. I know Atlanta may not inspire bettors, but  have been money in the bank from a historical perspective in this series going 9-2 SU/ATS . Note: Yes, the Panthers are well rested and off a bye but the Falcons have cashed 4 of their L/5 against these types of teams. 

CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS in home games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. CAROLINA is 3-12 ATS  in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Road underdogs (ATLANTA) - in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40 to 49%) are 23-4 ATS L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Home teams (CAROLINA) - average offensive team (4.9 to 5.4 YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.4 to 5.8 YPP) are 17-46 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Atlanta  to cover 

This is just to many points even though the Texans don't look like a viable side to back , especially if you watched their last game where they were shutout .  But pros do not like to be embarrassed and Im betting on a semblance of a bounce back here from the Texans at home. You have to remember Seattle has not looked good recently  despite of finding the win column last time out  and have been out-yarded in each of its last 11 trips to the gridiron this season. Bottom line no matter which way I slice it and handicap this game, this is just to many points to pass up on  with the pup as the favorite is just being plain over rated. Note: HC Carrol is 1-5 ATS L/6 as a 3 or more road fav and has covered just 5 of this L/16 coming off a SU underdog win. 

HOUSTON is 14-3 ATS L/17 after scoring 14 points or less in 2 straight games.  HOUSTON is 17-6 ATS L/23 in home games off a home loss. 

SEATTLE is 0-6 ATS in road games vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. SEATTLE is 0-7 ATS in road games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons

NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (HOUSTON) - a horrible offensive team (14 or less  PPG) against an average defensive team (18-23 PPG), after scoring 14 points or less in 2 straight games are 54-22 ATS L/38 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Houston to cover 

We are expected to have cloudy skies a few showers and some overall less than favorable weather with temps around 50 degrees F. We know these teams use the triple option as their go to means for the moving the ball and nothing will change today. With that said, Im expecting a ground war, here between these military schools, with the points looking to be golden in what Im betting will be very close affair. I know Navy's record is not a feature that makes bettors feel comfortable , but remember the Middies made play off side Cincinnati work hard for a 27-20 win last month and must not be disrespected in what this team will be treating as their biggest game of the season.

ARMY is 19-41 ATS  after a bye week since 1992

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NAVY) - after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games are 51-20 ATS L/29 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Navy Midshipman to cover 

Pittsburgh is off a huge win last time vs Baltimore to keep their play off hopes alive but now they will be caught in an emotional letdown spot vs a Minnesota Viking side that is desperate for a win after back to back losses including one to formerly winless Detroit last time out. Note: Vikings Zimmer is  25-7-1 ATS  in non-division tilts in his career when coming off a defeat, including 11-1 ATS against  AFC opposition. Zimmer is 13-3 ATS after a loss by 3 or less points as the coach of MINNESOTA.

NFL team (PITTSBURGH) - off an upset win as a home underdog, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season are 4-24 ATS L/38 seasons for a go against  86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Minnesota Vikings to cover 

I dont usually take huge favs, rarely if ever actually, but this is one of those occasions . The Rams are extremely frustrated right now after 4 straight losses, and need a win badly to get back some long lost respect. Meanwhile, Jacksconville behind QB Lawrence and a less than cohesive offense wont be able to do much damage here this week, while the Rams no matter who is under center (Stafford or Walford) are more than capable of pounding the Jags and getting them selves right again. The Jacksonville Jaguars are 1-15 ATS in their last 16 games against the NFC West, including 0-9 ATS as an under- dog. Rams are 5-0 ATS L/5 in this series.

LA Rams to cover 

I know how amazing  and maybe also a little lucky the Dolphins have looked of late , as they have garnered four straight wins, but it must be noted that  NYG own a 12-3 ATS record in their last fifteen games as a road dog   and have cashed   16 of 20 ATS  as a dog vs the  AFC East . With that said, and not focusing on historical biases, I really like the way the Gmens D is playing, and Im betting they wreak havoc on Tua Tagovailoa and company. Also on the flip-side, despite of a maligned Giants offensive line QB  Daniel  Jones  has remained minimally consistent enough to make the Giants competitive and considering Jones is 12-6 ATS in his career as a visitor I feel we have enough line value to pull the trigger on the road side. 

NYG is 3-0 SU/ATS L/3 visits to Miami. 

 GIANTS are 13-4 ATS  when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. Giants are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

NFL Home teams (MIAMI) - after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season are 8-30 ATS L/38 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MIAMI) - after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 5-25 ATS L/38 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on NY Giants to cover 

After jumping out to a  a 7-0 lead last week the Vikings fell asleep at the proverbial wheel and ,  lost by a 34-12  score to the  Niners last Sunday. Im betting that was an emotional letdown spot performance, after a huge win vs a very good Green bay side the week before. Now in redemption mode after that embarrassment Im betting on a motivated performance here by a red faced group vs a Detroit team that is extremely lucky to be even covering spreads of late. 

MINNESOTA is 5-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Road teams (MINNESOTA) - excellent passing team (265 or more  PY/G) against a poor passing defense (230-265 PY/G) after 8+ games, after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 23-3 ATS L/10 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Minnesota 

The PAC 12 is not getting alot of respect this year from the pundits , and maybe they dont deserve it. Despite of the talent levels, most teams maybe other than Utah dont stand out and have shown a great deal of inconsistency. Today we have two PAC 12  Futility Poster stories, going head to head as California hosts USC. In past meetings the Trojans have had the edge from a historical standpoint, winning 20 of 26 games all as chalk. Note: HC Justin Wilcox is a  ATM machine for the his backers as an  underdog  as is evident by his  21-9 ATS record  getting points and Im backing him  again. Also betting on some of the players that are supposed to return next year dial up their energy as Im sure incoming HC Lincoln Riley is watching this tilt closely. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (USC) - after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games against opponent after allowing 42 points or more last game are 29-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB team (CALIFORNIA) - average rushing team (140-190 RY/G) against an average rushing defense (140-190 RY/G) after 7+ games, after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 28-64 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on USC to cover 

Im betting on. a huge emotional  letdown from Michigan this week after defeating Ohio State last time out. The Wolverines after a huge win and celebration are now vulnerable vs a less talented but extremely cohesive team that is coached by one of football most under rated HCs Kirk Ferentz.

Iowa are 12-3-2 ATS  vs .850  or better conf opposition. 

Michigan 1-5 ATS vs .800 or better  conference  opposition. 

CFB favorite of 6 plus points with a superior record than its opp in its conference championship game – if coming off an ATS win of 15 or more points and facing an .800 or less foe are just 1-10 ATS L/25 seasons.

Play on Iowa to cover 

  Bearcats  are undefeated on the season  and have won 26 straight home games at Nippert Stadium, and stud QB Desmond Ridder has never lost a tilt on his home field and nothing Im betting will change today against Houston. The Bearcats are an elite team, and when motivated can easily smash a team like Houston. the Bearcats motivation will come from the fact that they will be the first power 5 team to go to the college football play offs with a win here today, and Im betting they do it in conclusive fashion.  Hey I know how well Houston has played but they are in over their heads here this Saturday. 

Cincinnati is 5-0  ATS in their L/5 games vs .900 or better opposition. Houston is just 1-6 SU/ATS  L/7 visits here . CINCINNATI is 8-0 ATS vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing  7.5 or less  yards per return over the last 2 seasons.

HOUSTON is 1-10 ATS L/11 in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5  or less yards per return. 

CFB home team (CINCINNATI) - after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins are 32-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.\

CFB Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CINCINNATI) - after scoring 35 points or more in a win over a conference rival, when playing on a Saturday are 28-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Cincinnati to cover 

SBC Championship Game

Lafayette won the only meeting between these teams this season, 41-13 and App State despite of wanting revenge do not matchup well vs Cajuns. Note: Lafayette is 6-1 ATS L/7 in conference action at home as a dog vs a team they beat in their previous meeting.

Lafayette HC Napier who leaves for Gainesville after this tilt  is   11-5 ATS L/16 as a dog, including 7-1 ATS when coming off consecutive wins .

APPALACHIAN ST is 2-10 ATS  after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins 

CFB home team vs. the money line (LA LAFAYETTE) - after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins are 33-7 L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate.

Play on Lafayette to cover

The Aztecs  own the 2nd best ground defense in the nation  and they are dangerous  smash and grab specialists  forcing takeaways. The Aztecs are tough as nails  on defense  overall ranking  No. 13 in the nation and multi dimensional on offense when they need to be as they proved vs Boise State, a Im betting Utah State will have issues with this type of side.  Look for Utah State to become one dimensional on offense,  as moving the chains on the ground will be difficult and for a muted effort from them here today against this strong Aztec stopping units . 

CFB Road underdogs of +155 to +300 vs. the money line (UTAH ST) - after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 1-32 L/5 seasons for a go against 97% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +13.2 ppg which qualify on this ATS line offering. 

Play on San Diego State to cover 

Big-12 Championship Game - AT&T Stadium - Arlington, TX

Oklahoma State took out Oklahoma last week, and now have a huge amount of confidence entering this game against the Baylor Bears. Oklahoma State (11-1) is in good position to make the College Football Playoff with a victory and we should find them very motivated in crunch time.

Note:Cowboys are 15-3 SU and 14-4 ATS laying points in this series and in their current top tier defensive form ranking No.3 in the nation in D allowing just 16.4 ppg . With that said, Im betting they have an edge here today of a TD or less making this a viable wagering opportunity with the favorite. 

Oklahoma State is 6-1 ATS with single-digit spreads this season. Cowboys are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. .Bears are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games on fieldturf.

OKLAHOMA ST is 8-1 ATS  in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better over the last 3 seasons.OKLAHOMA ST is 8-1 ATS against conference opponents this season. Gundy is 12-4 ATS in road games after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins as the coach of OKLAHOMA ST.

Play on Oklahoma State to cover 

UM is giving up just 13 points per game and are getting alot of respect from the lines-makers , (to much in my betting opinion) even here on their own field.  EWU is scoring 44.2 points, and in the first meeting between these teams blitzed UM for four plays of 35 or more yards , while Montanas 10 other opponents combined for three plays of more than 35 yards. EWU won that battle, by a 34-28 count and once again matchup well here behind an explosive offense that scored and 51 Red Zone TDs and  has shown it can have its way with this strong defense. Key to game:Last week, EWU ran for 129 yards against a Northern Iowa defense that was allowing just 83.3 yards per game on the ground and in their first meeting vs Montana went over 100 yards rushing, (one of only two teams to achieve that vs the Grizzlies this season) Im betting on them breaching the century mark here on the ground which will once again open up their explosive air attack which in turn will be the ultimate difference maker. 

Play on Eastern Washington to cover

Dallas is struggling as is evident by their  1-3 SUATS mark  in their last four tilts , while  allowing   an average of 28 points and 462 yards in the 3 losses. Note: Dallas is 0-7 ATS in games after allowing 35 or more points in its last time out. Meanwhile, New Orleans is also having difficulties having lost 4 straight games. Note: HC Sean Payton has never lost 5 straight games and cashed as an underdog SU/ATS the last two times this negative kind of run has been attached to his record. So Im betting the Saints will be ready to rumble vs a Cowboys side that suddenly does not look as cohesive as it did earlier this season. Payton is 50-20 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game as the coach of NEW ORLEANS.

NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS off a home loss over the last 3 seasons.NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS after scoring 14 points or less last game over the last 3 seasons. Saints are 7-0 ATS in its last seven games as a conference home dog. 

NFL Road teams vs. the money line (DALLAS) - in a game involving two poor defensive teams (335 to 370 YPG) after 8+ games, after allowing 450 or more total yards in their previous game are 6-34 L/38 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Favorites (DALLAS) - good rushing team - averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry, after being out-rushed by 75 or more yards last game are 63-111 ATS L/38 seasons for a 64% go against  conversion rate for bettors.

Play on New Orleans to cover 

Matthew Stafford started the season strong but is now in a bit of a funk so now the entire NFL nation and the parrot broadcasters are all down on him. He has always been streaky but when he's on Stafford can supply alot of high octane downfield offense and that what Im betting on him doing in bounce back fashion this week after a ugly 31-10 loss at SF vs the 49ers a couple weeks ago. Personally I believe the Rams were in a huge letdown spot after a hardcore battle the previous week against Tennessee in a loss but now after a bye week will be well rested and ready for redemption and revenge for last years play off loss  vs the  banged up Packers. So Im not ready to throw the Rams under a bus just yet, and believe they matchup well here vs the Green Bay Packers. Note: Stafford has covered in four of his last five matchups   vs Rodgers, and is  9-3 ATS coming  off a bye week.

Rams are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.

LA RAMS are 22-11 ATS  against conference opponents over the last 3 season.

 Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog. Favorite has covered 10 of the L/11 meetings in this series.

 NFL team vs the money line (LA RAMS) - off an embarrassing loss by 21 points or more as a favorite, with a winning record on the season are 22-4 L/10 seasons for a 85% con version rate for bettors.

NFL team vs the money line (LA RAMS) - off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 31-8 L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate.

Play on LA Rams to cover 

Rookie Zach Wilson returns to the lineup after missing four games with a sprained right knee when the Jets visit the Houston Texans in a matchup of 2-8 teams. The rest Im betting did the young man some good, and now Im betting   Wilsons  head  will be cleared enough to try to get some momentum going for him and his team. I know the Jets D is atrocious  and against ground attacks are  allowing 4.6 yards per rush this season, but the truth is this Texans team has almost no offensive flow, so to me they are fade material in a matchup that finally favors the Jets. 

HOUSTON is 18-33 ATS L/51 off a upset win as an underdog. HOUSTON is 1-11 ATS L/12 vs. struggling  teams - outscored by 10+ points per game on the season in the second half of the season . HOUSTON is 1-8 ATS vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return over the last 3 seasons. Texans are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (NY JETS) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 43-18 ATS L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Underdog is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Jets have covered 6 of the L/8 meetings in this series.

Play on the NY Jets to cover 

Both these sides can stop the run, with TB ranking high in that category, but one of these teams is better at stopping the pass and thats the Bucs. The Colts secondary is leaky and thats not a good omen vs what will be a motivated senior citizen in Tom Brady. I know Tampa has not played  up to expectations on the road, but now we are into the nitty gritty part of the season, and this is where Im expecting future HOF QB Brady and company to shine. Colts are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog.

Arians is 15-6 ATS  versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more yards/play as the coach of TAMPA BAY. 

NFL Favorites vs. the money line (TAMPA BAY) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 27-1 L/5 seasons for a 97% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +13.3 ppg which easily qualifies on this short fav ATS line. 

Play on TB to cover 

 Oklahoma State Defense are pure stoppers  ranking   No. 1 in the nation in third down stops, No. 1 in sacks and tackles for loss, No. 2 in scoring, and No. 3 in total defense.Now just at the perfect time  coming into this game against long time rivals  the Oklahoma Sooners  the Cowboys offensive  attack has  revved up and is now hitting on all cylinders  recording  400 yards or more in three of the last four trips to the gridiron. Right now the Boyz are complete package of a team and a very dangerous opponent for a Sooners side that depends on explosive offensive plays to achieve positive results. Advantage Oklahoma State.

OKLAHOMA ST is 7-0 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. this season.OKLAHOMA ST is 8-0 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread this season.OKLAHOMA ST is 8-0 ATS  after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers this season.

CFB home team vs. the money line (OKLAHOMA ST) - in conference games, after 2 straight covers as a double digit favorite are 34-3 L/5 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB home team vs. the money line (OKLAHOMA ST) - in conference games, after 2 straight covers as a double digit favorite are 45-18 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Oklahoma State to cover 

   15th-ranked UTSA Roadrunners will be under extreme pressure to  complete an undefeated regular season here against a stout opponent that has won 4 straight games covering all 4. The Mean Green still have to win their home finale for bowl eligibility  and have plenty to play for other than just ruining the Roadrunners undefeated season .Advantage North Texas 

NORTH TEXAS is 6-0 ATS   after playing a conference game this season.NORTH TEXAS is 16-5 ATS off 3 straight wins against conference rivals since 1992. 

CFB home team (NORTH TEXAS) - after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins are 30-7 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB team (UTSA) - average rushing team (140-190 RY/G) against an average rushing defense (140-190 RY/G) after 7+ games, after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 25-61 ATS L/5 seasons for a for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

North Texas to cover 

When Georgia State records more than 25.1 points, it is 3-1 against the spread and 4-0 overall and my projections expect a 28 plus or more point output. The Panthers have covered the spread twice this season when favored by 6.5 points or more (in three chances).This season, the Trojans have just one ATS victory in four games as an underdog of 6.5 points or more and are once again fade material here at a TD or less.

GEORGIA ST is 6-0 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons

GEORGIA ST is 6-0 ATS vs. struggling passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 62% or worse over the last 2 seasons.

CFB Road underdogs vs. the money line (TROY) - after gaining 150 or less total yards in their previous game against opponent after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 2-37 L/29 seasons for a go against 95% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at -20.9 ppg qualifying on this ATS line offering. 

Play on Georgia State to cover 

This Michigan football program is off one its worst in its  history last season, and they have responded with poise and bounced back in a big way. The one loss to Michigan State was not completely surprising considering recent snake bites they have suffered in this series. However, wins vs Penn State and Wisconsin  including some close road wins solidified their ability to compete. I know Ohio State is the better overall side, but with the grit the Wolverines have shown Im betting on a big effort here and cover as the redemption tour continues.

MICHIGAN is 8-1 ATS  in games played on turf this season.

 CFB home team vs. the money line (MICHIGAN) - off 1 or more straight overs, with a good scoring defense - allowing 17 or less points/game are 69-8 SU L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.  

CFB  home team (MICHIGAN) - after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins are 30-7 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

The Bears lead the Big 12 in total offense behind the duo of Abram Smith and Treston Ebner  and are ultimately very fluid with their chess like attacks. This Bears team has a uncanny way of controlling the tempo of  a game and Im betting  Texas Techs  wont keep up . Note: I know Blake Shapen is expected to be under center today for the Bears but this kid is talented and he will be out to make an impression and let the running game do the rest. 

Red Raiders are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Red Raiders are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.Red Raiders are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Red Raiders are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.

BAYLOR is 10-1 ATS ( versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6.25 or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons. BAYLOR is 6-0 ATS ( in home lined games this season with the average ppg diff clicking in at 20 ppg. BAYLOR is 6-0 ATS ( after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game this season with a ppg diff clicking in at +21.7 ppg. 

CFB Road underdogs vs. the money line (TEXAS TECH) - after gaining 150 or less total yards in their previous game against opponent after out gaining  opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 2-37 L/29 seasons for a 95% go against conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at -20.9 ppg which qualifies on this ATS offering. 

CFB Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (BAYLOR) - good rushing team (190-230 RY/game) against an average rushing team (140-190 RY/game) after 7+ games, in conference games are 25-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate.

Play on Baylor to cover 

Kent State destroyed Akron last week by a 38-0 count and continue to show explosive offensive continuity averaging 46.8 ppg at home. On the flip-side , visiting Miami O is only averaging 19.8 ppg in offense when playing in the visitors role. Kent State has the advantage. 

KENT ST is 12-3 ATS  in home games after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992. KENT ST is 10-2 ATS  vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 3 seasons.

CFB home team vs. the money line (KENT ST) - off a huge blowout win by 35 points or more over a conference rival, with a winning record on the season are 48-8 L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Kent State to cover 

E.Carolina is playing their best football of the season, as they enter this game on a 4 game win streak, and have played their best football at home this season winning 4 of 5 games while allowing just 18.8 ppg defensively. I know Cincinnati is a top tier team but they have played a long hard schedule, at a very high level and from time to time this season, have played games against lower tier sides like its a de-facto bye week. Advantage East Carolina 

Bearcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.Bearcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games.Bearcats are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games on grass

CINCINNATI is 0-6 ATS  after allowing 125 or less passing yards in their last game over the last 3 seasons.

E CAROLINA is 8-1 ATS  when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. E CAROLINA is 12-3 ATS in home games against teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better . Houston is 12-2 ATS L/15  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. as the coach of E CAROLINA. Pirates are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.

CFB home team vs. the money line (E CAROLINA) - after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins are 31-6 L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on East Carolina to cover 

Texas is in free fall after suffering 6 straight losses. Ending their futility today Im betting wont come easy if at all and Kansas States strong defense will be the difference maker. Im not saying this version of the  Texas Longhorns  is soft but their defense certainly is  allowing 32.9 ppg overall  and will be their downfall here today as it has been all season long. 

KANSAS ST is 11-1 ATS L/12  as a road underdog of 3 points or less .  KANSAS ST is 6-0 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 2 seasons

 TEXAS is 0-6 ATS after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Kansas State to cover 

Eastern Michigans  passing attack  is explosive and the  ground game has been balanced and hard to stop .  That was evident in a  22-21 win over top tier Mac opponent Western Michigan. With a offense that rip points up on the board in bunches the Eagles are solid underdogs. 

Creighton is 8-0 ATS as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points as the coach of E MICHIGAN.Creighton is 9-1 ATS in road games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game as the coach of E MICHIGAN.Creighton is 12-2 ATS   in road games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games as the coach of E MICHIGAN.Creighton is 16-4 ATS  in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. as the coach of E MICHIGAN. 

E MICHIGAN is 15-2 ATS in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing  7.5 or less  yards per return. 

Play on Eastern Michigan to cover 

This game has implications for the races in both the West and Mountain divisions and Im expecting both sides to leave everything on the field it what the lines-makers and myself expect to be a very close game, with the points in my betting opinion ending up being golden. 

The Aztecs defense is  a wall against opposing ground games, and it all ties together with an offense that controls games in a very chess like conservative fashion. In a big game like this the home side looks like viable option getting points. 

SAN DIEGO ST is 7-0 ATS  after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons.Hoke is 11-2 ATS in home games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game in all games he has coached.

Play on San Diego State to cover 

Egg Bowl

Mississippi State sits at 7-4 overall and 4-3 in the SEC West.  Ole Miss is 2nd in the division at 9-2 overall, 5-2 in conference play.

The Miss State Bulldogs have played well against higher-ranked teams, especially as hosts, taking out NC State, Kentucky, and Auburn at Davis Wade.  All of those football programs were ranked at the time. Im betting Leach and company have the edge again vs their higher ranked opponent. Key tonight will be  the Bulldogs strong rush defense which ranks  No. 21, in the nation and  4th in the SEC behind Georgia, Alabama and A&M which will take away from the Rebels being able to open up their pass game , which will limit their offensive options. On the flipside Im betting Miss State QB Rogers will meticulously follow a controlled game plan that will utilize everything available to him and give the viable Ole Miss D more than what they can plan for. 

Leach is 32-12 ATS  versus good rushing teams - averaging 200 or more  rushing yards/game in all games he has coached since 1992.Leach is 22-7 ATS  in home games after gaining 375 or more passing yards in 2 straight games in all games he has coached since 1992.

CFB Home favorites vs. the money line (MISSISSIPPI ST) - after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games against opponent after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games are 38-2 L/5 seasons for a 95% conversion rate.

Play on Miss State to cover/win

This is a big  game for San Jose State, as a win  would make it bowl eligible. Needless to say Im betting we pull out all the stops to find a way to get a victory here. Im betting on the Spartans top tier D to keep them in this game until the end. 

SAN JOSE ST is 9-1 ATS  in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.SAN JOSE ST is 13-4 ATS L/17 after gaining 3.25 or less yards/play in their previous game. Spartans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog.

Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on field-turf.

Underdog is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings. 

Play on the San Jose Spartans to cover

The Lions have a big reputation as Thanksgiving day money makers, but the truth  it's usually when they are favs that  they shine, but as dogs they have lost 12 straight times and covered only twice losing by an average of 9.8 ppg. I know Chicago may not inspire bettors but they are the superior side, and being very hungry for wins Im betting they dont pass up this opportunity to register a victory. 

Note: The Lions will start one of their woeful backups probably the horrendous looking Boyle this week and are down to just 3 healthy starting offensive lineman , so offensive continuity and  scoring is going to be an issue. I know QB Fields  may also not start for the Bears but to me veteran QB Dalton is a better option anyway . 

NFL Favorites vs. the money line (CHICAGO) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 27-1 SU L/5 seasons for a 97% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at 13.3 ppg which qualifies from a. ATS level as well. 

 NFL Road teams (CHICAGO) - in a game involving two struggling offensive teams (14-18 PPG) after 8 or more games, after a loss by 3 or less points are 21-3 ATS L/38 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL  Road teams (CHICAGO) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games are 32-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Chicago has won 4 of the L/5 meetings in this series and their L/2 visits to Motown .

Play on Chicago Bears to cover

The Giants’ defense is top form and have been really been  stoppers in the last  three weeks giving them the ability to be competitive against any NFL team even the defending Super Bowl champion Bucs . On the flip side, the giants rarely get much push from the offensive line but against shaky TB secondary I expect for some big plays and scores.  With Big Blue getting healthy they are solid bets here to cover vs a Bucs side that is definitely not playing a top level at the moment. . 

Giants are 19-4 ATS L/23 as road underdogs. Judge is 8-1 ATS  in road games against conference opponents as the coach of NY GIANTS. NY GIANTS are 9-1 ATS  in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

TAMPA BAY is 0-6 ATS  against NFC East division opponents over the last 3 seasons. TB has lost 19 of its L/26 SU after two consecutive road losses.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (NY GIANTS) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 35-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road teams (NY GIANTS) - off a home win, a struggling  team, winning 25% to 40% of their games, in the second half of the season  are 46-19 ATS L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

NY Giants to cover 

The Washington football team after upsetting the defending Super Bowl Champs last week will now in a huge emotional letdown situation on the road. It must be noted that sides off a upset of the defending Super Bowl champion by 10 or more points have covered just 3 of the 19 times  when facing a .400 or better side like the Panthers in their  following tilt. With Carolina looking like a viable side to back with Cam Newton or former XFL star QB PJ Walker under center Im recommedning we pull the trigger here and lay a few points with a team that has plenty of momentum and crowd support this Sunday. 

WASHINGTON is 2-9 ATS after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons. Football Team are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.Washington is also 1-6 SU/ATS when coming off an underdog win of 7 or more points. 

NFL Favorites (CAROLINA) - an average defensive team (18 to 23 PPG) against a struggling  defensive team (27 or more  PPG), after scoring 30 points or more last game are 24-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a  83% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Carolina to cover 

After being very competitive this season , Syracuse looked tired/lifeless vs Louisville last week in a 41-3 loss. Previous to that 5 of their L/6 games were all decided by 4 points or less and they have won the stats battles in 8 of 10 games this season. There is good news coming for  Syracuse bettors this week as Babers is 8-0 ATS after gaining 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game as the coach of SYRACUSE. On the flip-side NC States HC Doeren is 0-9 ATS versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 230 or more rushing yards/game as the coach of NC STATE like Syracuse. I expect Syracuse to pound away on the ground today and to take advantage of Wolfpack side that has failed to cover 4 of their L/5 as 10 or more point home fav in conference tilts. 

SYRACUSE is 12-3 ATS L/15 vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return. SYRACUSE is 8-2 ATS in all games this season. 

CFB Road underdogs (SYRACUSE) - with a good offense - averaging 5.8 or more yards/play, after gaining 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game are 30-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate. 

Play on Syracuse to cover 

Rivals go head to head today in southern California , and Im betting the under performing but under rated home side has the edge. 

The UCLA secondary is vulnerable as is evident by  allowing an average of  240 yards per game. The one thing that USC can do consistently is go deep and make passes, and that what will be the difference maker here today. UCLA is 4-14 ATS L/18 when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%).

USC has been a recent ATM when faltering going 6-0 ATS as a home pup when coming off consecutive losses, including a  6-0 ATS mark as a home dog with a below .500 record.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (USC) - with 16 total starters returning are 76-38 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play USC to cover 

CFB  Road underdogs vs. the money line (RICE) - slow starting offensive team - scoring 8 or less PPG in the first half, after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 1-34 L/5 seasons for a go against 97% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking at -19 ppg. 

Play on UTEP

Alabama has crushed   Arkansas 100-10 count  in the last two meetings and Im betting on another beatdown here, as the Tide ramp up into championship form, especially on defense, where they have allowed just 15.8 ppg at home this season. Alabama is 5-1 ATS as home favorite of less than 24 points.

Lay and it and play it on Alabama to cover 

The UTSA Roadrunners come into this game undefeated, but Im betting they will have their hands full with UAB this week in a key game. Its alot of pressure for a team to stay undefeated in College Football, and Im betting they feel the heat here today vs a UAB side that is ntorious for picking up big wins in key games. Note: The Blazers allow a little over 100 rushing yards per game, and  they lead the league in total defense. Defence wins championships and in this case gets us the cover in this spot play. 

Clark is 30-14 ATS  against conference opponents as the coach of UAB.Clark is 12-3 ATS  after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers as the coach of UAB.


CFB Home favorites (UTSA) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game against opponent after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games are 18-44 ATS L/29 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on UAB to cover

Iowa State has big time revenge on board vs  Oklahoma this Saturday , after  having their butts handed to them  in last year’s Big 12 Championship. Note:Iowa State is a profitable 5-1 ATS L/6 away with conference revenge .I know the Cyclones are also off a loss last week in heart breaking fashion, but now that will make them even hungrier as a collective.  Advantage Iowa State.

Cyclones are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games following a straight up loss.Cyclones are 20-9-1 ATS in their last 30 games as an underdog.

Sooners are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games in November.

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (OKLAHOMA) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, in weeks 10 through 13 are 45-85 ATS L/29 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors.(Lost a Baylor last week 27-14)

Iowa State to cover 

Clemson slowly but surely has gotten back towards championship form and now must be respected here at home to handle a one way Wake Forest offensive juggernaut.  The Clemson D, Im betting will give Wake a real test, while the Deacons D, is usually their weak link and wont stand up very well in the end. (Wake ha allowed an average of 42 ppg on the road this season) 

Clemson HC Swinney is 14-2 SU L/16  when having won  three straight games..

WAKE FOREST is 0-6 ATS  in road games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.

CFB Road underdogs (WAKE FOREST) - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games are 50-17 ATS L/10 seasons for a 76% conversion rate.

Clemson to cover 

Air Force has impressed me this season, winning the stats battles in 9 of 10 games and are 4-0 SU/ATS on the road this season  and after watching them take down Colorado state last time out on the road by a 35-21  margin it became clear they are for real. Now the  talented and gritty Falcons crew  take to  the road again and Im betting they wont be intimidated at all here by a Nevada side that did not completely live up to expectations this season and now in a emotional letdown spot, after losing a key heart breaker to San Diego State last week. .

CFB  team (AIR FORCE) - after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game against opponent after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are 55-23 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Air Force to cover 

There is alot of pressure here on the Houston Cougars as a win this week against a dangerous Memphis side and another next week vs UConn and HC Holgernson and company will take on Cincinnati in the AC Conference Championship game. However, Memphis would love to play spoiler here and they do have the offensive weapons to make Houston sweat and to get us the all important cover. Note: Memphis is 5-1 SU/ 6-0 ATS L/6 in this series and must be respected because of their explosiveness and ability to get a upset win or backdoor cover.

Holgorsen is 29-47 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. in all games he has coached since 1992

CFB underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MEMPHIS) - with 16 total starters returning are a profitable bet going 78-36 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate.

Play on Memphis to cover 

The Atlanta Falcons suffered their worst loss in almost 20 years this past Sunday vs Dallas 43-3 and with that said it must be noted pros do not like to be embarrassed. Remember these NFL rosters are made up  of some of the top athletes in the world, and they own  some of the biggest egos on earth. Im expecting a big effort from the entire Falcons group here at home in this  national broadcast tilt and what Ill peg as redemption night in Georgia. I know New England smashed Cleveland last time out by a 45-7 count , but a repeat performance is unlikely here as is Atlanta having another muted offensive effort. 

Patriots are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.Patriots are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a straight up win.Patriots are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS win.

ATLANTA is 6-0 ATS  after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse over the last 3 seasons.

Atlanta to cover 

E.Michigan is bowl eligible, but must garner a victory tonight   and beat Northern Illinois next week , as well some other uncontrollable good luck to be able to get a share of the  MAC West title. Needless to say Im betting the Eagles will leave everything on the field today vs a Western Michigan team that gives up alot of big plays in the secondary. 

Eagles are 22-9 ATS in their last 31 games following a straight up loss.

Creighton is 13-4 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) as the coach of E MICHIGAN.  Eagles are 27-12 ATS in their last 39 games as an underdog.

W MICHIGAN is 2-10 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons. W MICHIGAN is 0-6 ATS  after playing 3 straight conference games over the last 2 seasons.W MICHIGAN is 3-12 ATS L/15 as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.  Broncos are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 conference games.

Lester is 0-6 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game as the coach of W MICHIGAN.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (E MICHIGAN) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games are 38-11 ATS L/29 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Play on Eastern Michigan to cover 

The Broncos have won  2 straight games including a big upset on the road against the Dallas Cowboys last week.  Last weeks victory ended a 5 game streak where they lost they stats battle so Im not that impressed by the  surprising win, as their over all work must be considered.

I know Philadelphia may not inspire bettors but QB Jalen Hurts continues to improve, and hes a handful for most defenses, and according to my rankings he matches up well here and should have a good day as a dual threat pivot. Im betting Hurts will be the difference maker today. 

Denver  has failed to cover 16 of their  24 games   as a home favorite in tilts after winning straight-up as a dog, including 1-10-1 ATS  if they are off back to back SUATS wins. DENVER is 17-38 ATS L/55 in home games off a non-conference game. 

NFL team vs the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - mistake-free team 1.25  or less TO/game committed) against a team with 1.25 or less TO/game forced, after 4 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers are 46-14 SU L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (PHILADELPHIA) - mistake-free team (1.25 or less TO/G committed) vs a team with 1.25 or less TO/G forced after 8+ games, after a game where they committed no turnovers are 23-4 ATS L/39 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Eagles to cover 

The  Buffalo Bills lost in shocking fashion to the Jacksonville Jaguars last time out with a bizarre 9-6 score attached to it.  Buffalo is now 0-3 ATS this season as  double-digit road favorites. I know many expect, the now inconsistent Bills to come out here spitting bullets ,as they look for a quick redemption result, but laying almost two TDs in a divisional road game seems a bit much in my opinion.  Especially  with NYJ incumbent QB Mike White under center. With that said,   the Jets will not easy targets and get my support here getting points as a home dog.    

Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog.Jets are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.Jets are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

NFL Road favorites (BUFFALO) - with a good first half defense - 7 or less points per game, after allowing 14 points or less last game are 8-30 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Favorites of 10.5 or more points (BUFFALO) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 8-29 ATS L/38 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Underdog is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings.

Play on the NY Jets to cover 

RB Adrian Peterson who has lots of miles on him is now the Titans No.1 running back  as  Tennessee’ has to move forward without  the injured  Derrick Henry for at least the rest of the regular season  . That will be a difficult transition for a offense that leans hard on Henry to move the chains. Yes, I know the Titans have played smash mouth football of late against top tier competition, but that kind of action takes a toll on a team, and now this week against the Saints Im betting we see some exhaustion play a part in making the Titans vulnerable home favs. Note: NFL teams like Tennessee off 4 straight underdog wins have covered just 1 of their L/7 opportunities as favs in their followup tilt.  TENNESSEE is also just 3-15 ATS  off an upset win by 10 or more as a road underdog which was the case after a DD win vs the Rams last week. 

NEW ORLEANS is 8-0 ATS   in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more  yards/game over the last 3 seasons. NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS   as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TENNESSEE) - after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 28-62 ATS L/38 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on New Orleans to cover 

Wake Forest  explosive offense  Im betting will really be aggressive and  attack the Wolpacks  D which has  allowed over 400 yards in three of its last five games. Advantage Wake Forest. 

WAKE FOREST is 6-0 ATS  in home games after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored over the last 3 seasons.

NC STATE is 1-10 ATS  versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 or more yards/game over the last 3 seasons.

CFB home team (WAKE FOREST) - after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games, game between two teams with 8 or more defensive starters returning are 39-11 ATS L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate. 

CFB Home favorites vs. the money line (WAKE FOREST) - after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games against opponent after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games are 37-2 L/10 seasons for a 95% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Wake Forest to cover 

Rested Virginia was on a 4 game win streak before being derailed last time out  in a back and forth offensive slugfest but now Im betting on a bounce back effort vs Notre Dame.

NOTRE DAME is 8-26 ATS after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games since 1992.

Virginia is 16-3 ATS vs .800 or better opposition. Virginia is 5-1 ATS L/6 off a bye. 

VIRGINIA is 8-1 ATS  in home games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. VIRGINIA is 9-1 ATS in home games when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons. Mendenhall is 7-0 ATS in home games after scoring 42 points or more last game as the coach of VIRGINIA which was the case vs BYU in a 49-66 loss. 

CFB  home team (VIRGINIA) - excellent offensive team (440 or more YPG) against a team with an average defense (330 to 390 YPG), after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games are 70-36 ATS L/29 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Virginia to cover 

Sooners’ are over rated and the pollsters know it , but the lines makers don't seem to because of their lengthy win streak keep propping them up which is great for sharp money but not so much so for the diehard fans who back the Sooners no matter what .  Yes the Sooners have found ways to win this season but are 0-6 ATS with HC Lincoln Riley at the helm as conference road favorites.  Nothing seems to be coming easily for the Oklahoma and that will continue here vs a side in Baylor that is playing in revenge mode for a loss last year in this series.   The Bears are 20-5 SUATS at home in Waco the last 10 seasons against opposition  coming off a victory including 8-0 ATS as an under dog.  BAYLOR is 8-0 ATS  vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 34 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons.

CFB home team (BAYLOR) - good rushing team (190-230 RY/game) against an average rushing team (140-190 RY/game) after 7+ games, after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game are 23-3 ATS L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate. 

Play on the Baylor Bears to cover 

 ECU allows 24 ppg to Memphis' 29.1 and more than 400 yards a game so the better defense rests with the Pirates. The Pirates have only failed to  cover 2 of their 9 games  ATS this season to rank 6th-best in the nation at covering the spread and once again according to my power rankings matchup very well here vs the Memphis . Look for E.Carolina to lean on their D, here and to pound the ball on the ground alot more to slow the flow of their explosive opponents.E CAROLINA is 11-2 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons.

CFB road team (E CAROLINA) - after allowing 175 or less total yards in their previous game, with an experienced QB vs. opponent with inexperienced QB are 107-53 ATS L/29 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on E.Carolina to cover