New Orleans have started their season, at 0-2, and while its still early, a sense of urgency now permeates around the team, and now I'm betting on big effort from the Saints against  2-0 Carolina  this Sunday. I know both teams have operated at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum , entering this tilt, but I pretty well know what to expect from both teams when they meet based on my power and head to head divergence rankings .With that said, my own numbers based on both teams strengths and weakneeses  tell me that this game will be closely contested, thus making getting points to be a viable  investment decision.

Saints HC Payton is 15-6 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses and is 19-8 ATS L/27  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. New Orelans is 4-0 ATS L/4 in this series.

NFL Home favorites like Carolina  - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games 5-23 ATS for a go against  82% conversion rate for bettors dating 5 seasons.

The Saints are 13-0 ATS L/13 when facing an undefeated team after week 1 and 9-4 SU with two losses coming by 2 points and the other two by 4 and 5 points respectively.

Play on the New Orleans Saints to cover

Atlanta (2-0) got by their first two opponents, and have yet to experience the dreaded Super Bowl hangover.However, with that said, I'm betting that hangover finally catches up with them this week vs a Detroit Lions team that is finally starting to live up to expectations behind their top tier QB Matthew Stafford. Detroit has a good recent history vs NC South opponents winning 5 straight meetings and get the nod again today,

NFL Road Favs like Atlanta - a solid team from last season-outscored opposition by 7 or more points , after a win by 10 or more points are 4-22 ATS L/26 opportunities for a go against conversion rate of 85% for bettotrs 34 seasons.

Play on the Detroit Lions to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Rosen jumped out  to the top of the Heisman watch list after throwing for 3,668 yards and 23 touchdowns as a freshman in 2015 and than last season , the hopes for  UCLAs winning the PAC 12 and making a big Bowl appearance was erased because of the Rosen injury.  Now after his triumphant return to the gridiron which saw the Bruins stage a miraculous 45-44 comeback win vs Texas A&M after being down by more than 30 points at one point , the legend of Josh Rosen continues to grow. So far this season he's been lights out, and despite of losing a 48-45 heartbreaker last week in Memphis he must be respected here vs Stanford just because of the share fire power this Bruins team has. Yes, they're defense is their Achilles heel, and Mora's team  will give a load of points on a regular basis, to strong offenses, but their own offense will keep them in most games, as I am betting  will be the case this week vs the Cardinal who are not a confident group at the moment after coming off two straight losses, to USC and San Diego State.

CFB Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Stanford  - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers are 15-42 ATS for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors during the past 10 seasons.

Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like UCLA - good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game, after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 51-19 ATS for a 73% conversion rate for bettors dating back 10 seasons.

Play on the UCLA Bruins to cover 1 unit reg selection

Notre Dame goes on the road for the 2nd week in a row. Last week , the band wagon crawlers came out of the woodwork , after the Irish defeated Boston College. However defeating this  Michigan State program will be a much harder conquest. The Spartans enter this game as the nations 3rd ranked D, and must not be disrespected on offense either as a deep set of backs could easily wreak havoc on a side, that may find it difficult  adjusting and dealing with a team that can actually move the ball, after facing Boston Colleges horrendous offense last week. It must be noted that Notre Dame has covered in just 2 of the L/13 games in this series, and the Spartans  DanAntonio  is 17-2-1 ATS L/20 at home taking on sides off a SU/ATS victory.

MICHIGAN ST is 15-3 ATS L/18 allowing 225 or less total yards/game over their last 2 games.MICHIGAN ST is 17-4 ATS L/21 after allowing 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games.

NOTRE DAME is 2-14 ATS  L/16.  in road games after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game

CBB Road favorites like the Fighting Irish- excellent rushing team (230 RY/G or more) against a team with an excellent rushing defense (100 RY/game or better), after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game are 7-31 ATS dating back 25 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 81% for bettors.

Play on Michigan State to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Florida Gators have beaten the Kentucky Wildcats 30 straight times. It does not seem to matter which team is better at the time of the meetings. With that said, and after watching Florida fail away on offense in their first few games of the season, they suddenly woke up with a 63 yard hail Mary pass to defeat Tennessee 26-20 last week, and  will now be sky high , entering this game  and I'm betting be jolted into getting some more points on the board With that said, the Gators defense is extremly solid and of the top tier variety and here against a Kentucky team that can be inconssitent with their attack a times , I'm betting their in trouble. The Wildcats have failed to cover 4 of their L/5 as dogs of 10 points or less. With that said, I recommend we take the Gators in this spot. 

FLORIDA is 10-2 ATS    in road games after 2 consecutive games where they committed 3 or more turnovers.

Florida to cover 1 unit reg selection 

I'm betting Florida Atlantics new HC  Lane Kiffin and company after having time to work with his new team is finally ready to make his mark. It takes time to have a team jell, and now with 3 games in their back pockets against the likes of Wisconsin and Navy and a blow out tune up win last week 45-0 vs Bet Cooke, Kiffins Owls behind 14 returning starters and a talented quarterback  will now be fine tuned to take out (cover) Buffalo as visitors. 

FLA ATLANTIC is 7-0 ATS L/7  in road games after scoring 42 points or more last game.

CFB Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 like Florida Atlantic  - good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG) against an average offensive team (330 to 390 YPG), after allowing 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game are 26-5 ATS for a 84% conversion rate for bettors dating back 25 seasons

.CFB Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 like Buffalo - after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game against opponent after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 9-30 ATS L/39 dating back 10 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Florida Atlantic Owls to cover 1 unit reg selection

Last week SMU was hyped up to play in state rivals TCU , and despite of a valiant effort still got blown out by DDs. Now in a letdown situation the Mustangs face a very staunch and experienced Arkansas State team that must never be underestimated. Arkansas State struggled last year to score despite of a top tier D,  but after HC Blake Anderson took control of the QBS in the off season  they look extremely cohesive now , and buoy the teams chances at repeating as and one of the top Sun Belt football programs as well as staying competitive today against a very explosive offense .According to my own power rankings the Red Wolves  have a 52% chance of pulling off the SU upset, and  a much higher probability of more importantly covering the spread.

SMU is 5-16 ATS  L/21  in home games after playing 2 straight non-conference games.

Home favorites like SMU - quick starting offensive team - scoring 16+ PPG in the first half, after a loss by 17 or more points are 25-58 ATS L/83 L/5 years for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Arkansas State Red Wolves to cover 1 unit reg selection

Middle Tennessee State enters this game off a DD loss to Minnesota last time out by a 34-3 count, and are banged with key wide receiver, Richie James at less than 100% or expected to miss with a ankle injury as well as starting QB Brent Stockstill who still questionable with a shoulder injury. These key contributors will effect the cohesiveness of the Blue Raiders, making them fade material tonight vs a desperate Bowling Green team that needs a win badly after 3 straight losses.

BOWLING GREEN is 25-12 ATS  when playing against a losing team with a (Win Pct. 25% to 40% like Middle Tennessee State.BOWLING GREEN is 13-4 ATS L/17 after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread.BOWLING GREEN is 6-0 ATS L/6  in road games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Bowling Green - with a terrible defense - allowing 6.1 or more yards/play, after allowing 475 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 33-10 ATS for a 77% conversion rate for bettors over the L/10 seasons.

Play on the Bowling Green to cover 1 unit reg selection

Air Force played valiantly against Michigan last week covering as DD dogs, behind a top tier defense, so going up against San Diego State side that has an upper tier D, won't be an issue. Meanwhile, San Diego State enters this tilt off a DD dog win vs Stanford, last week in a grueling close  game and could easily find themselves in a letdown spot vs a Falcons side that has won 5 straight at home as underdogs. This game has the makings of an extremely close affair.

The Falcons have surrendered only one offensive touchdown in  their L/10 quarters of play, dating back to a 45-21 win over South Alabama in the 2016 Arizona Bowl.

Calhoun is 19-5 ATS L/24 when the total is between 42.5 and 49.

Play on Air Force to cover 1 unit reg selection

Vanderbilt enters this tilt as the top team in the nation in Scoring D and are No.2 in red zone D. there a top tier team that must not be disrespected as was the case last week when they defeated Snyders KState by a 14-7 count.  I know how strong Alabama is and their legendary status is sometimes hard to bet against, even getting this many points. With that said, this week I'm going against the main stream betting minds and talking heads and taking points with  a football program on the rise, in their most important game of the season. the Commodores dating back to last season have won 5 straight at home, and have upset two top 25 opponents along the way, and are a bankroll expanding 9-2 ATS L/11 as 15 point or more dogs. note: Nick Saban has covered on 2 of his L/7 as fav of 15 points or more between undefeated teams.

Despite of losing 14 straight in this series the  Commodores are 10-4 ATS in those games including 5-2 ATS L/7 as hosts.

CFB Road favorites like Alabama - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 2.75 or less rushing yds/carry, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 11-37 ATS for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors over the L/25 seasons.

CFB Home underdogs of 14.5 or more points like Vandy - after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins, with a winning record on the season 39-10 ATS L/49 for a 80% conversion rate for bettors over the L/25 years .

Play on Vanderbilt 1 unit reg selection

Toledo is one of the best teams in the MAC, and deserve respect. But Miami is a national championship contender in my opinion, and also deserve a great deal of respect. After watching Toledo get torched by Tulsa last week for 51 points and 548 total yards , I feel Miami's offense will be ready to chew Rockets  up this week. But unfortunately for Toledo, they won't be able to reciprocate with their own offensive fireworks vs a very strong Hurricane D ,like they did vs Tulsa 's stand and  watch secondary and D last week. Toledo's coach agrees with my assessments , as here is a quote from Jason Candle who is concerned about Miami's speed.
Quote: "I see a team that's built on players from South Florida," he said. "Lot of speed. They play fast on defense. They're running to the football and getting to you with bad intentions when they do get to the ball.
"And on offense there's a multitude of guys that can score from anywhere. They've got a tremendous back in Mark Walton and some good receivers on the perimeter that can score it.
"I think the quarterback is going to continually get better as the year goes on." END quote:

MIAMI is 6-0 ATS L/6 off a home win by 17 points or more.MIAMI is 7-0 ATS L/7 after scoring 37 points or more last game . MIAMI is 15-4 ATS L/19 after gaining 300 or more rushing yards last game.

Play on Miami FL to cover 1 unit unit reg selection

North Carolina after losses to California and Louisville in their first two home games, will now be ready to get into the win column vs a inconsistent looking Duke football program, that had problems dealing with a downtrodden Baylor team last week. Here on the road in their ACC opener things promise to be a lot more difficult for Duke, and I won't be surprised if they lose straight up as favs. It must be noted that North Carolina has scored and increased their offensive output in each game so far this season, 30, 35, 53 points respectively and are now in a offensive groove and ready to compete. 
 

HC Fedora is 7-0 SU/ATS following a victory where his team has a below .500 record. ( The tar Heels smashed Old Dominion last week by a 53-23 count.  
 

N CAROLINA is 23-10 ATS  L/33 vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game. 
 

CFB team (N CAROLINA) - terrible defensive team (440 YPG or more ) against an excellent defensive team (280 YPG or less), after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 28-7 ATS L/25 years for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 
 

Play on North Carolina to cover  1 unit reg selection

woUtah in my opinion is turning into a PAC12 championship contender, thanks to being able to generate more of a downfield passing game along with their already very viable run attack and what is becoming a defense that ranks among the nations toughest and most physical. I know Arizona can put points up in bunches, but their D despite of showing some improvements , still remains susceptible to allowing a ton of yards and a now in trouble vs a multi- dimensional attack like Utah owns.

Arizona ripped N.Arizona and lowly UTEP in their tow big wins, but against a decent team , Houston they lost by 19-16 count and were slowed on the ground. With that said, I'm betting Utah's vicious D, will be the difference maker here today and their ability to score from many angles makes them the right side tonight vs their hosts Arizona.

Arizona HC Rodriguez is 0-6 ATS vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game like Utah and were outscored by an average of 16.7 ppg. .Rodriguez is 1-15 ATS L/26 after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games with average margin loss coming by 13.7 ppg. \Utah HC Whittingham is 10-2 ATS after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games.UTAH is also 22-9 ATS in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) winning by a average of a TD a game.

Play on the Utah Utes to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Rams lost at home to the Redskins last week by a  27-20 count while San Francisco looked really tough in a grinding 9-6 loss at Seattle last week. This SF team looks very much like a blue collar group looking for respect and they now have it from me after watching clips of last weeks game vs  HC Carroll and company. I know the 49ers offense has looked muted so far this season against elite defenses that are owned by the Seahawks and Panthers in their first two games, but against a Rams defense that has proven very inconsistent over the last few seasons, I'm now expecting a reversal in the Niner's offensive output and more importantly a cover in this spot.\

49ers are 3-1 SU/ATS L/4 in this series.

NFL teams like the 49ers- after scoring 9 points or less in 2 straight games are 34-11 ATS over the last 10 seasons.

NFL team vs the money line LA Rams  - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight losses, bad team from last season (25% to 40%) playing against a terrible team last year (25% or less) are 8-27 for a 77% conversion rate.

Play on the SF 49ers to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Green Bay Packers have revenge on their minds tonight against the Atlanta Falcons after last seasons, 44-21 conference final blowout that had them ousted from Super Bowl contention. Now in pay back mode, I expect the Packers who are 6-1 ATS Sunday night revengers, as dogs, and a bankroll expanding 9-1 ATS L/10 behind QB Aaron Rodgers when looking for revenge against a .750 or better opponent to get the job done here . Note: The Falcons have failed to cover 11 straight, as home chalk in reg season play following a victory when facing a side with revenge.

Play on the Green Bay Packers to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Chargers, on a short week after playing the back end of a Monday Night Football doubleheader, will be a little tired jet lagged and in an emotional letdown scenario after absorbing a heartbreaking 27-24 loss to Denver in the Mile High City in their opener. Meanwhile, Miami after having their last game cancelled because of Hurricane Irma will be well rested and fresh.

Today taking points is a viable option considering the circumstances. It must also be noted that the Chargers lost eight games by seven points or fewer last year, one of them to the Dolphins and seem to take part in an endless amount of close games, and I'm betting, as do the linesmakers, on another one here.

Last week the Chargers got run over for a 140 yads on the ground, and I'm betting that will be their downfall this week vs the Fins running attack behind Jay Ajayi.

MIAMI is 40-17 ATS against AFC West division opponents since 1992. Miami is 10-3 SU L/13 in this series.

Play on the Miami Dolphins to cover 1 unit reg selection

Last week Oakland travelled West to East in an emotional charged first game that saw them clip a strong Tennessee team in their own back yard. Now drained and tired (jet lag) and playing a side that they may over look, I expect a letdown performance that leads to a no cover decision. OAKLAND is 20-40 ATS  L/60 off a upset win as an underdog dating back 25 seasons and are 0-6 ATS following a dog win last time out and now playing a below .500 foe.

Note: The Raiders are 1-7 ATS L/8 home openers.

Any team NY Jets- team that had turnover margin of -1 /game or worse last season, in conference games are 24-5 ATS for a 83% conversion rate over the L/10 seasons. Home teams like the Raiders - poor passing defense from last season - allowed 7 or more passing yards/attempt, after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 18-44 ATS L/25 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 71% for bettors.

Play on the NY Jets to cover 1 unit reg selection

Early on in every season we get carried away with evaluating a certain team after just one game. Jacksonville looked great in beating up on the  Texans as road dogs in week 1 by a 29-7 count, while Tennessee lost to what many think will be a Super bowl contender this season the Oakland Raiders by a 26-16 score. However,  its obvious to me that Tennessee is a special team with huge potential upside, behind one of leagues premier QBs Marcus Mariota , while the Jags are a side that while looking better, have shown very little pedigree in the past and must not be over estimated for their talent levels. With that said, I'm betting on the superior team  according to my own power rankings ( Titans) to bring home the win in this spot and get us the cover as short road favs.

NFL team vs the money line like the Jags - off a upset win as an underdog, team that had a terrible record last season (25% or worse) playing a team had a winning record last year are just 1-28 L/29 times dating back 34 years.

Play on the Tennessee Titans to cover 1 unit reg selection

I'm not going to get over emotional and start judging the defending Super Bowl Champion, New England Patriots flat performance last time out, a 42-27 loss to the KC Chiefs. Being a successful team like the Pats, I think its hard sometimes getting up and motivated for any game, yes even for an opener. Add to that the amazing come from behind Super Bowl win, and an emotional letdown/hangover situation was not that surprising. Now this week, after being embarrassed in game 1 of their season, I expect Tom Brady and company will be wide awake this Sunday, which is not a good omen for the Saints chances in their home opener.

NEW ENGLAND is 16-4 ATS  L/20 in all games.NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS   after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game .NEW ENGLAND is 9-1 ATS L/10 after playing a game at home .NEW ENGLAND is 15-4 ATS  L/19 as a favorite .

The Patriots are 18-0 SU/ ATS L/18  on turf vs a non-divisional opponent when they are averaging less than 3.80 yards per rush and have won those games by an average of 18.83 ppg.

Play on the New England Patriots to cover 1 unit reg selection

Rocky Long has really put together a excellent football program at San Diego State, and really deserves a lot more respect than his team is getting from the lines-makers tonight. Meanwhile, Stanford despite of being a fine team, are in a huge letdown situation after being knocked out against USC last week and will find it difficult to get up off the proverbial matt(turf) here this week. San Diego State is a tough dog at home and have failed to cover only once their L/7 as hosts of 5 point dogs or more. Both these teams pound the ball on the ground consistently and both have stoppers on defense. I'm betting this is a grinding affair that will see getting  points being golden. Note: San Diego State limited Arizona State to 44 rushing yards and 1.4 yards per attempt.

The Aztecs have won 20 of their last 23 home games.

SAN DIEGO ST is 11-3 ATS  L/14 after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins .

CFB Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points Stanford - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins, team that had a winning record last season are 14-40 ATS L/25 seasons for a 75% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on San Diego State to cover 1 unit reg selection

Mississippi in no way shape or form should be favs here, even against a rebuilding California program. Travelling from East to West for any North American team is difficult proposition especially for a side, like Ole Miss that has looked asleep at the proverbial wheel at times this season despite of their perfect record and may still be reeling with the shock of losing their coach because of sex scandal.

Overall the Rebs are 7-23 ATS L/30 road favs including 0-7 ATS L7 off 2 consecutive wins.

With the Bears new defensive schemes, and coaching philosophies , I'm betting scoring on them they may not be as easy as was the case in the recent past.

Take the points here with the California Bears to cover 1 unit reg selection

Clemson had to face a very tough Auburn offense last week  winning by a 14-6 count, and now this week against a porous Louisville D, this will seem like a walk in the park. I have come to the conclusion that the Cards defense is of the Swiss cheese variety after watching a rebuilding North Carolina offense slice and dice them last week for 35 points on 401 yds and Purdue put 28 points on them the week before . I know a lot is being made of Heisman Trophy front runner LaMar Jackson of the Cardinal, who helped his team stay unbeaten by buoying the offense with 47 points in that above mentioned game, but this top tier college QB will really have his work cut out for him against an elite defense that has allowed a total of 9 pts in two game and I'm betting will come down to earth in this spot. Remember , folks, as great as Jackson is , he cannot play D, and that will be his teams downfall this week.

Play on Clemson to cover

The Commodores enter this game vs Kstate averaging 384 yards of total offense while giving up an average of 159 yards per game. They're averaging 122 yards per tilt on the ground and 261.5 through the air. Most important, the Commodores have not had a turnover.Quarterback Kyle Shurmur has completed 76.1 percent of his passes for 249 yards per game and seven touchdowns. This young QB is super intelligent , and plays within his limitations, making him a dangerous foe. Meanwhile, on the flipside  I know  KState's Coach (Bill) Snyder is one of the best in the business, but he's not perfect, especially on the road losing 3 of his L/13 non conference road games and 5 of his L/20 Sept road games. With my own projections estimating this game to be decided by a FG or a late score taking points here makes for a very viable wager.

VANDERBILT is 13-2 ATS  L/15 off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite.

CFB Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points KState - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins, team that had a winning record last season are 14-40 ATS dating 25 seasons for a 75% go against conversion rate for bettors. Also CFB  home team Vanderbilt  - after 2 straight wins by 17 or more points against opponent after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 44-14 ATS dating back 25 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. CFB  home team like Vanderbilt  - after 2 straight wins by 21 or more points against opponent after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 29-7 ATS for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Vanderbilt to cover 1 unit reg selection

Tulsa enters the Glass Bowl against one of the best teams in the MAC, Toledo, but won't be easily intimidated behind  a potent offense that put 66 points on the board last week.  It must also be noted that its never easy for a north American sports team to travel east to west over multiple time zones like Toledo did last week in a trip to Nevada. Now going against a fast and explosive Tulsa team, I'm betting the sledding will not be easy , as the Rockets will be a little Jet lagged and tired in this spot.

Golden Hurricane are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
 

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Tulsa  - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP), after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 27-5 ATS going back 10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB. road team like Tulsa - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP), after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 30-8 ATS L/38 for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tulsa to cover 1 unit reg selection

Middle Tennessee State took out the Syracuse Orange last week 30-23 on the road,  and in the previous game , played a very good SEC team Vanderbiilt tough losing by a 28 -6 count. Now against a Minnesota side getting to many accolades after smashing a  Oregon State team with series issues, I'm betting they revert back to the norm and for Middle Tennessee State to  make a game of this and  even possible pull off a SU upset. In the Gophers previous game to last weeks road win, they barely squeezed by the Buffalo Bisons of the MAC at home by a 17-7 count as 21.5 favs, and things won't come much easier here. With that said, I'll recommend we take anything that resembles +8.5 to+10 .

MIDDLE TENN ST is 7-0 ATS  L/7 after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse over.

Play on the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders to cover 1 unit reg selection

Old Dominion may not be a big name school form a power 5 conference, but they are a viable underdog here against a rebuilding North Carolina program, that continues to exhibit very poor defensive abilities over the last few seasons.  Last season Old Dominion was 7-0 SU at home and must not be underestimated in what is their biggest game of the season . With the Tar Heels QB expected to be less than 100% this week with a ankle injury, I'm betting that  N.Carolina at 0-2 and losing the stats war by an average 167 ypg  has issues moving the ball with consistency , against a staunch Monarchs D , while their own D, will have problems stopping anything that can move.

N CAROLINA is 10-25 ATS L/35  after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last game which happened against Louisville last week.

Play on Old Dominion to cover 1 unit reg selection

TCU proved to me as long as they stay healthy they are going to be a juggernaut this season. Last week they owned Arkansas and were the more physical of both teams, winning a 28-7 decision . Now this week against SMU I'm betting we see an even more explosive effort vs a lower tier side that does not matchup well against them at all in almost aspects of the game.

TCU is 7-0 ATS   as a home favorite of 17.5 to 21 points since 1992 winning by an average of 31.1 ppg.

Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points like TCU - good offensive team from last season - scored 31 or more points/game, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. are 40-13 L/53 for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. home team like TCU - after 2 straight wins by 21 or more points against opponent after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 29-7 ATS for a 81% conversion rate for bettors over the L/25 years.

Play on TCU to cover 1 unit reg selection

 Looking at this game in a casual way will have many assuming that Nebraska will blowout N.Illinois  today in Lincoln. But N.Illnois has travelled well in the past and will not be easily intimidated by a team, that gave up 42 points to Oregon last week, and 36 points to lower tier  Arkansas State the week before. Nebraska was also hypoed for that last game vs the Ducks and will be in a natural let down spot  here. There are some definite defensive issues that have yet to be addressed , by the Huskers and I expect a Northern Illinois side that is averaging 433 yards of offense this season with a pretty even split  with their  ground and aerial attack behind  QB Daniel Santacaterina to do enough damage to stay within  the number.  It must also be noted that Northern Illinois is allowing only 17 PPG to opposing teams this season on the defensive side of the ball and must not be underestimated in their ability to slow down the home team here and make this closer than expected.
 
  N ILLINOIS is 9-1 ATS L/10  after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins.N ILLINOIS is 6-0 ATS  L/6 after scoring 37 points or more last game .N ILLINOIS is 6-0 ATS  L/6 after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers. N ILLINOIS is 6-0 ATS  L/6 after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game.N ILLINOIS is 37-19 ATS  L/56 as a road underdog.

 Play on Northern Illinois to cover 1 unit reg selection

Everyone and his dog loves, the UCLA Bruins after their amazing comeback against Texas A&M in their opener winning a 45-44 freak show and followed that up with a easy win vs Hawaii and their dysfunctional defense. But now against a Memphis  program that has proven they can take down big programs in the recent past, I'm betting things won't come so easily for the Bruins as they now go on the road travelling from west to east , which is never an easy trek, especially with an early start time to deal with . The Bruins did not have much of an emotional letdown after their big comeback win in their opener, but now on a delayed reaction basis I expect they will deflate. It must be noted that the /Tigers are 16-4 in their L/20 home games SU, and are 15-3 ATS as home dogs facing a team off  consecutive wins including a perfect 6-0 ATS record vs non conference foes under the same perimeters. Also with UCLA looking ahead to the PAC 12 opener with Stanford, their attention won't be completely on this game. Note: (The Bruins are 0-6 ATS L/6 before facing Stanford)

UCLA is 1-8 ATS  L/9 after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread.

CFB Road favorites like UCLA - after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 5-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 84% for bettors.

Play on the Memphis Tigers to cover 1 unit reg selection

Kansas lost last week to Central Michigan at home as favorites. Key mistakes finally saw them lose by a 45-27 loss in a game that was closer than the final score might indicate. Now this week as dogs on the road vs another MAC team I'm betting they have a good chance at covering. With Ohio looking forward to a big revenger against a strong E.Michigan team next week, I expect Kansas to catch Ohio napping like they did last season when they pulled off an upset win against the Texas Longhorns. Kansas has cashed their L/2 against MAC opponents as underdogs.

Play on Kansas to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Falcons (1-0) bring a seven-game winning streak into The Big House to play Michigan this week. Meanwhile, Harbaugh's Wolverines are 2-0 and looking strong. But Air Force behind their option offense, provides big problems , yes even for good coaches, especially when these top coaches have not faced these types of attacks regularly. The Falcons know how to put up points in bunches, as they never scored fewer than 27 last season, when they finished 10-3 and beat South Alabama in the Arizona Bowl. They have exceeded the 40-point mark four times during their winning streak,, and will do some damage again today against Harbaughs tough D, making them viable underdogs in this spot. Note: Air Force has won six straight games against non-conference opponents and have cashed 4 straight on the road vs non conference opposition of 17 points or more. With Harbaugh eyeing his Big 10 opener against Purdue, I'm expecting the old ball coach won't have his full attention here. Michigan is 0-7 ATS L/7 before facing Purdue.

AIR FORCE is 20-8 ATS  L/28 after allowing 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game.MICHIGAN is 16-35 ATS  L/51 after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games .

CFB Home favorites like Micigan - off a home win by 17 points or more, in a game involving two teams who had good records (60% to 80%) from last season are 11-33 ATS L/44 for a go against conversion rate of 75% for bettors.

Play on Air Force to cover 1 unit reg selection

Arizona beat N.Arizona in week 1 by a 62-24 count and then lost a hard fought 19-16 battle vs Houston last week. Meanwhile the UTEP Miners fell to 0-2 on the season after being crushed by the Rice Owls 31-14, this past Saturday. UTEP struggled offensively throughout the game which is not a good omen for their chances against a Arizona offense that will find this game like a walk in the park after facing a stout Cougars D last week. Note: UTEP has allowed an average of 43+ ppg in two tilts, and with a less than cohesive offense, that is now without  key RB Aaron Jones who declared for the NFL draft and left the program. , things won't get better for a side that is ranked 126th in the nation in offense.  
 

UTEP is 1-8 ATS L/9 in September games with the average score ringing in at 43.1 to 19.7 ppg for a average margin of defeat coming by 23.4 ppg. UTEP is 2-11 ATS  L/13 in the first half of the season  with their opponents averaging 40.1 ppg and with them scoring just 17.4 ppg.

Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points like Arizona  - excellent rushing team from last season - averaged 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first month of the season are 43-14 ATS dating back 24 seasons.

Play on Arizona to cover 1 unit reg selection

South Florida has not looked all that good in their first two games , maybe its the Charlie Strong effect, just maybe the Bulls over achieved last season, and now we expect more of them. In their first game, they were down to San Jose State 16-0 before coming back for the win, and vs Stony Brook were down 10-7 at the half before storming back. Last week their game against UConn was cancelled and instead of the rest doing them well, I'm betting it makes them rustier than they have already looked. Meanwhile, Illinois looks to be making progress under the tutelage of Lovie Smith, and must not be disrespected here in this spot. It must be noted that Illinois has covered 4 straight in their L/4 as 14 point or more dogs to a non conference foe. Meanwhile South Florida is 0-5 SU in the programs history vs the Big 10 with ACC teams going just 3-23 vs the Big 10.

CFB road team like Illinois - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (1.25 or less turnovers/game committed), after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 126-72 ATS dating back 10 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Illinois to cover 1 unit reg selection

Last week New Mexico came out flat against New Mexico state and fell behind by a 30-5 count, before coming back with 23 4th Quarter points, and than failing to tie it on a two point conversion. It was a valiant effort by a decent team, and now they will be primed to come out here , and upend a Boise State football program off a heart breaking OT loss to Washington State loss last time out and now in a huge emotional let down situation. With Boise State just 1-10-1 ATS L/12 at home as favs, and New Mexico showing heart as DD, conference dog going 12 -2 ATS L/14, we have value here . I know that Boise State whooped the Lobos last season at visitors to Albuquerque, by a 49-21 count, but New Mexico's HC Bob Davie is 11-2 ATS as a DD MWC underdog with revenge.  With that said, I'm betting on the Lobos staying close enough to cover here, and for the Broncos Bryan Harsin to fall to 0-8 ATS in his L/8 conference home games.

NEW MEXICO is 12-2 ATS  L/14 off an upset loss as a home favorite. NM has covered 3 of their L/4 visits to the Blue Carpet.

CFB Home favorites like Boise State  - in conference games, with 5 offensive starters returning are 49-93 ATS dating back 5 seasons.

Play on the New Mexico Lobos to cover 1 unit reg selection

Dallas hosts the New York Giants at AT&T Stadium to kick off NFL’s Sunday Night Football schedule. A lot of pundits believe that the Cowboys will continue their upward trajectory from last season, but I in my usual contrarian fashion expect some hiccups behind sophomore QB Prescott. I do however, believe the Giants to be a key contender in what should be a wide open NFC East battle. Last year, the Gmens QB Eli Manning  finally looked a little motivated last season  completing 63 percent of his passes for just over 4,000 yards and had a ratio of 26 touchdowns to 16 interceptions. In todays matchup according to my own power rankings he  matches up well against the Boysz offensive line and secondary, and should accumulate a hardy amount of yards through the air that will translate into an above average score count for the Giants. With the Cowboys RB Elliot probably out this week with a suspension, Prescott will not have an easy out if under continuous pressure which I'm betting he will be.  If if Elliot plays, it must also be noted that the Boyz will be without, Tight end Rico Gathers (concussion) and. Defensive end Damontre Moore (suspension).

Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings against Dallas. Cowboys are 1-8 ATS L/9 home openers. cowboys Garrett is 6-16 ATS as a division favorite and 3-10 ATS L/13 as a favorite of 5 points or less.DALLAS is 6-15 ATS  L/21 in games played on turf .

Play on the NY Giants to cover 1 unit reg selection

After last years less than desirable or expected results Arizona enters into this season with a chip on their shoulders, and will be primed for big opening day , vs the Detroit Lions. Meanwhile, the Lions are a decent team, that are over rated in my opinion and were lucky to make the play offs last season . I know their stud QB Stafford just signed a lucrative contract, but its not like he has been a big winner in the NFL as he owns a sub par 51-61 SU record and a 45-65-2 ATS mark. With that said, I'm betting on the Cards pulling off the cover here , while bolstering their current 7-0 SU/6-1 ATS mark in this series and converting for the 10th time in their L/11 road openers.

It must be noted that the Lions have lost 19 of their L/24 vs the NFC West.Lions are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC and have failed to cover 5 straight dating back to last season.

Play on the Arizona Cardinals to cover 1 unit reg selection

Atlanta had a great season last year, and made it to the Super Bowl, but imploded in that tilt and eventually lost . I'm betting they experience a bit of a let down here early in the season, and have problems disposing of a Chicago Bears team that will be marginally improved this season. In the past Super Bowl finalists have not done well in their opening game of the following season, going 2-15 SU/ATS in away games. It must also be noted that the Bears are 6-0 ATS in home openers a underdogs vs non divisional opposition. Meanwhile, Atlanta has failed to cover 5 of the L/6 in this series as favorites. Chicago has a good history at home in opening games, 23-10L/33 with only 3 of the losses coming by 7 pts or more and get the nod here to stay within the number.

NFL teams like the Bears -- team that had turnover margin of -1 /game or worse last season, in conference games is 22-4 ATS dating back 10 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Chicago Bears to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Jets over hauled their team in the off season, but that is not necessarily a bad thing. Many pundits have over done how bad the Jets will be this year as the drop off in talent if looked at closely is not that bad, and I'm sure with very little pressure on them may surprise the same pundits that are dismissing them, as irrelevant . Meanwhile, the team I'm not sold on is the Buffalo Bills, behind inconsistent QB Tyrod Taylor, especially here in this spot as 9 point chalk.

Historically speaking the Jets are 19-7 ATS as division road dogs, and 7-1 ATS as a road underdog in openers.

NFL team like the Jets  - team that had turnover margin of -1 /game or worse last season, in conference games are 22-4 ATS for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NY Jets to cover 1 unit reg selection

San Diego State must not be disrespected here vs a Arizona State team that looked weak defensively in week 1 vs New Mexico State, winning 37-31 but were outscored 18-7 in the last quarter. The Aztecs  have  won 22 of its last 25 games SU. while Arizona State has 1 victory over a team with a above .500 record since beating rival Arizona on November 21, 2015.

Rocky Long is 5-2 as a dog vs PAC12 opponents, while HC Graham of the Sun Devils is 1-4 ATS L/5 vs the Mountain West.

SAN DIEGO ST is 10-2 ATS  after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game.

Take the points with San Diego State 1 unit reg selection

Stanford (1-0) well rested and fresh returns to action from a one-week layoff after opening the season Aug. 26 in Sydney, Australia, with a explosive one sided beat down of Rice. The Cardinal seeks to win a fourth straight against the Trojans (1-0). Meanwhile, USC had some early problems against Western Michigan but pulled away late for a DD win. Their D, especially the run D, looked a little porous allowing a whopping 263 yards and will be part of what I'm betting will be their failure to cover tonight vs Stanford.

 The Stanford Cardinal have a defense that I'm betting rivals that of Alabama. Call me crazy for saying that , but this group is razor sharp and extremely physical and will be the difference maker here today vs the USC Trojans.

Winning on the road is a key theme for the Cards.The Cardinal have taken 3 straight from the Trojans, and 7 of the last 9.Dating to 2007, the Cardinal have won four of five games at the Coliseum. USC is undefeated at the Coliseum since Helton took over as head coach midway through the 2015 season -- but also winless against Stanford at 0-2.

Play on the Stanford Cardinal to cover 1 unit reg selection

Both teams are off lopsided easy wins in their week 1 matchups. Auburn lost a hard fought tilt to the Clemson last season by a 19-13, count , but I' betting their even better this season, and  are going to be hyped up about taking down the defending champs and get revenge for their loss to  last season. I'm betting that this game will be hard fought and that getting points will be golden for a team I have pegged as the most improved in the SEC this season.

AUBURN is 13-4 ATS  L/17 in road games after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards.AUBURN is 34-19 ATS  after gaining 275 or more rushing yards. Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games

CFB Road underdogs like Auburn - after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning, in the first month of the season are 40-14 ATS for a 74% conversion rate for bettors dating back 10 seasons. Also CFB  Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Clemson - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are 38-12 ATS for a 76% conversion rate for bettors over a 10 year period. CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Auburn - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, team that had a winning record last season are 40-11 ATS for a 78% conversion rate for bettors dating back 25 seasons.

Play on Auburn to cover 1 unit reg selection

Nevada is getting a lot of accolades for staying close in a game vs Northwestern last week even though, their defense allowed over 500 yards and the home team to convert 26 first downs. If they are as porous this week, as last, which I think they will be, I'm betting their in big trouble vs the MACs best team. Last week against Northwestern the Wolfpack  only controlled the ball offensively  for just  21 minutes and turned the ball over twice during that game. Needless to say, from my standpoint , Nevada's performance was more smoke and mirrors than a top tier effort like it was being painted. Meanwhile, Toledo despite of starting slowly last week in a win, looked to put things together in the 2nd half, on route to a  blow out 47-13 victory and will now use that momentum to take down a over rated opponent in this spot. The Rockets had 24 first downs and 553 total yards in the game. Rinse in repeat here for a DD margin of victory.

Toledo 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games.TOLEDO is 6-0 ATS in September games over the last 3 seasons.TOLEDO is 10-2 ATS L/12 after playing a game at home.TOLEDO is 21-6 ATS off a home blowout win by 28 points or more.

Play on Toledo to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Rebels fell to Howard as a 45-point favorite at home last time out, the worst point spread loss in history. Meanwhile, Idaho took  an FCS opponent, notching a win vs  Sacramento, 28-6.  As far as the Howard/UNLV games goes, Howard must not be disrespected, as their HC Mike London  won a National championship with Richmond, and was able to recruit a very strong QB in Caylin Newton who is the brother of Cam Newton. The  UNLV D, was ugly, and the team on a whole. was caught looking ahead to greener pastures, which was in hindsight a mistake, that now has them  embarrassed and ready for redemption this week in Idaho. UNLV can score in bunches, and that is why they have a chance this week to stay very close. Last season these teams played each other tough, with Idaho pulling off a 33-30 win, and I'm expecting another hard fought battle this week, with the points in my humble betting opinion ending be golden.

IDAHO is 0-7 ATS  L/7 when the total is greater than or equal to 70.IDAHO is 8-20 ATS  L/28  in home games after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. HC Petrino is 6-15 ATS  L/21 after playing a non-conference game .

CFB Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Idaho - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers are 14-41 ATS dating back 10 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 75% for bettors.CFB  Road underdogs like UNLV  - after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning, in the first month of the season are 40-14 ATS L/54 opportunities for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on UNLV to cover 1 unit reg selection

Last year TCU lost 41-38 to Arkansas in Double OT as 10 point home favs, despite of out stating the Hogs 572-403.  Now this season with revenge on board I expect Gary Andersons troops to be hell bent on laying down some pay back. I know Anderson and TCU had a losing season in their last campaign , but the two times he had losing seasons , he came back with 12 -1 and 11-1 marks. Last week they won 63-0 vs Jackson State and now come in rocking and rolling and in a vengeful mood. Note: Game 2 Chalk off a shut out win like TCU are 7-0 ATS L/7 winning every time by DDs.

Bielema is 0-6 ATS   in home games after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game which happened vs Florida A&M last week in a 49-7 win.

Play on TCU to cover 1 unit reg selection

Indiana showed me a lot , when they played one of the best teams in the nation (Ohio State) very tough, this past Thursday night and were actually tied in third quarter before things got away from them. After that major tune up against a top tier team, I'm betting this game against Virginia will be like a walk in the park.

Cavaliers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.

CFB home team like Virginia  - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 4 or more straight losses, with 5 offensive starters returning are just 15-45 for a go against conversion rate for a 74% for bettors. Also CFB home teams like Virginia  - terrible defense from last season - allowed 425 or more total yards/game, with 5 offensive starters returning, in the first month of the season are 6-22 SU during the L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Indiana to cover 1 unit reg selection

Western Michigan travelled out to the west coast last week to play the USC Trojans. New Head Coach Tom Lesters team played valiantly for a while, before getting beaten by 49-31 count . Now tired and in an emotional letdown scenario the Broncos, go against a DAntonio coached Michigan State team, that has a lot to prove after last seasons dismal results. The Spartans looked determined a 35-10 beat down of Bowling Green last week, and get the nod to bring home the cash to their backers this time around as well.

MICHIGAN ST is 26-9 ATS  after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game .

CFB Road underdogs like Western Michigan- after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game, with an inexperienced QB as starter, in the first two weeks of the season are 18-46 ATS L/25 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 72% for bettors. Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Mich State - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more wins in last 5 games are 34-10 ATS for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Mich State Spartans to cover 1 unit reg selection

Iowa defensively  smothered what was supposed to be a offensively explosive Wyoming offense last week in their first game a 24-3 win. Now here in week 2 I expect that same D, will stand tall and be the catalyst for a win in cover vs instate rivals Iowa State . Iowa has taken the two most recent meetings in this series conclusively by scores of 42-13 last season and 31-17 in 2015. I'm betting on another easy win here today.

IOWA is 17-5 ATS  as a road favorite of 7 points or less and  8-1 ATS  L/9  in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest.

CFB home teams like Iowa State - terrible defense from last season - allowed 425 or more total yards/game, with 5 offensive starters returning, in the first month of the season are 6-22 SU L//28.

Play on Iowa to cover 1 unit reg selection

Coach Fedora and the Tar Heels, have almost always shown a lot of defensive deficiencies, as was the case last week in a loss to the California Bears by a 35-30 count. Thanks to first round pick QB Mitch Trubisky and some good wide receivers those defensive deficiencies were masked by simply outscoring their opposition. That won't be the case this season, as the gunslinger is now in the NFL and much of the offense is being reassembled. Last week the Tar Heels simply made  a lot  of  mistakes on both sides of the ball, throwing two interceptions, losing a fumble and giving up big plays on defense and this week vs a hungry Lousiville program things will only get worse in my humble betting opinion.

Louisville has covered the L/3 meetings in this series.

CFB home team like N.Carolina  - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last 3 games are 31-6 ATS L/37 for a go against conversion rate of 84% for bettors.

Play on Louisville to cover 1 unit reg selection

Ohio destroyed a lower tier Hampton program by a 59-0 count last time out, hardly breaking a sweat in the process. Meanwhile, Purdue lost a grueling hard fought battle, to Louisville in their first game of the season, by a 35-28 count. That effort will now have them in an emotional letdown situation which will translate I'm betting into a muted effort that might actually see them upset by a pretty good MAC side.

OHIO U is 6-0 ATS L/6   in road games in non-conference games.PURDUE is 1-10 ATS  L/10  in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest .

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Ohio - in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last 2 games, team that had a winning record last season are 36-10 ATS over the L/25 seasons. CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Ohio U - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, team that had a winning record last season are 40-11 ATS over the L/25 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.  CFB  home team like Purdue  - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 4 or more straight losses, with 5 offensive starters returning are 15-42 ATS dating back 25 seasons.

Play on Ohio U to cover 1 unit reg selection

With UCLA's QB  Josh Rosen healthy again, the Bruins will be a dangerous foe for all comers. Texas A&M is a fine team, but in games that are expected to be close recently they have not performed all that well going just 2-11 ATS L//13 as a dog of 7 points or less. Last season Sumlin and company up ended UCLA 31-24 at home in their opener, but it must be noted that the Aggies HC is just 4-13 ATS facing a team with revenge. Tonight I expect Mora 's Bruins to be hell bent on payback while getting their mojo back.  

 UCLA is 28-14 ATS L/42 in home games in non-conference games. TEXAS A&M is 15-35 ATS   L/50  as a road underdog. 

CFB home team like UCLA - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning, in the first month of the season are a bankroll expanding 73-35 ATS dating back 5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors

Play on the UCLA Bruins to cover 1 unit reg selection

No. 21 Virginia Tech and No. 22 West Virginia Square off  at FedEx Field in Landover this Sunday night. Both these long time rivals will have new starting QBs, but one side I'm betting has the egde.That team in my betting opinion is the West Virginia Mountaineers with Florida transfer Will Grier under center . He was 6-0 as a starter as a freshman before testing positive for performance-enhancing drugs, subsequently suspended, and then transferring. This kid has the goods and is a top quailty performer and will be supported by the Big 12's leading rusher from last season Senior Justin Crawford and a a deep core of powerful backs .   Meanwhile, VTech will start a red shirt freshman, in Josh Jackson, who will I'm betting experience some jitters here right out of the gate and take time to acclimate to game speed. Yes, I know West Virginia is retooling this season on many fronts, but the pipeline of talent is solid and may surprise a lot of the pundits. TodayI'm betting they stay within the number and get us the cover.  

Vtech is just 2-9 ATS L/11 an non conference favorites of 3 pts or more and have failed to cover in 5 of their L/7 neutral site games. 

CFB team like VTech - in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight spread covers, team that had a good record last season (60% to 80%) playing a team that had a winning record are 5-30 ATS L/35 opportunities for a go against conversion rate of 865 for bettors. .

Play on the W Virginia Mountaineers to cover  1unit reg selection

No. 1 Alabama plays No. 3 Florida in the Chick-fil-A Classic on Saturday night in what has been called the biggest opening game ever in college football. Alabama, bidding for a perfect 15-0 season, lost 35-31 to Clemson on a last-second touchdown in the College Football Playoff title game last January after a 24-7 victory over Washington in a semifinal pairing at the Georgia Dome and showed many of us that the Tide may have turned (pardon the pun). Now enters Jimbo Fisher's Florida State  that is 30-5 SU in non conference battles, and 9-1 SU vs the SEC. Meanwhile, Alabama the No.1 ranked team in the nation, has some interesting ATS numbers attached to their status, as these top ranked teams are just 16-15-1 ATS in openers,  and just .45-65-1 ATS when not listed a DD favorites.  Nick Saban the Tides formidable HC is also just 6-7 SU and 5-8 ATS in openers vs non conference competition as single digit favorite.

Florida State to cover

South Alabama to cover vs Ole Miss - The Sex scandal that lost head coach Hugh Freeze his job, has this Ole Miss program reeling.  That’s not a good omen for a team that also lost 5 of their L/7 games last season.  Here today vs a South Alabama Jaguars side that  pulled an  upset at Mississippi State in last year's opener, anything is possible. Coincidentally the Jaguars also upset a very good San Diego State program  last season, as DD home dogs, so this is a team that is not easily intimidated and thrives in the underdog role.  

S ALABAMA is 10-2 ATS in road games in September games since 1992 and is 14-3 ATS in road games in the first half of the season since 1992.

Play on the South Alabama to cover 1 unit reg selection

. The UMass minutemen are sure to be jet lagged and an emotional let down state after playing in Australia last week while losing to Hawaii with under 1 minute left on the clock (38-35).  Now they go against a tough head coach Joe Moglia (Coastal Carolina) who owns a magnifcent  51-15 SU record in five years , including a 10-2  record last season – with both losses coming  by a single point! The  CC offense has averaged at least 34 PPG every season under Moglia and are expected to be offensively effecient this season, vs one of last seasons worst Ds. I know the Minutemen has 17 returning starters , but like I have said, before that not neccisarily a good thing considering their continued futility. 

Play on Costal Carolina to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Troy enters this game with what might end up being their best  team ever, as 16 solid starters (10 on offense) return along with a boatload of under rated talent. With their Blue Carpet opponents the Broncos  returning QB Brett Rypien QB and his best WR Cedric Wilson, many think the Broncos will remain a force, but I disagree with this assessment as much of offense is now departed, and 4 key tacklers on D are now also gone. The pipeline of talent that Chris Peterson left behind is also now mostly gone,  and I'm betting HC Harsins team won't be as formidable, which could see Boise State face a drop off this season. It must be noted that the Broncos have failed to cover 16 of their L/25 and re just 1-10 ATS L/11 at home. With Boise State eyeing Washington State in their next game, the Broncos may not as focused in a dangerous opponent in their opener. Troy has covered 5 of their L/7 opeing games as underdogs and have covered 8 of their L/12 as a non conference DD pup. BOISE ST is 0-6 ATS   as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Troy to cover 1 unit reg selection 

There is just not enough respect being shown to Jim Harbaugh and company this week vs Florida. Yes, I know Harbaugh has hardly any key returning starters back, but this guy is a behemoth recruiter and has a boatload full of talent in the pipeline and is now ready to reload. Meanwhile, despite of the accolades the Gators are getting, I'm still not sold on their ability to move the ball behind QB Jim McELwain or any of the other Gator Qbs. Also with a key suspension to WR Antonio Calaway, the Gators are at a disadvantage both mentally and physically as is evident, by the rash of suspensions the team will suffer from this Saturday. Florida has also shown a propensity to implode against top tier opposition, while Harbaugh has proven he can be trusted as a favorite of 7 points or less winning 6 of 7 opportunities ATS and is a perfect 7-0 SU. Harbaugh is also 6-0 SU/ATS as chalk of 7 or less before game 6 winning su by an average of 24.5 ppg. Michigan is 3-0 SU/ATS L/3 meetings in this series and get the nod again this week on a neutral field.

Play on Michigan to cover 1 unit reg selection

Wyoming to cover vs Iowa  

Wyoming QB Josh Allen is  a projected first-rounder in the 2018 NFL draft and I'm betting his offensive talents will be even more explosive this season than last years 28 TD performance. Yes, The cowboys D was bad last season but with Scott Hazelton now running the defense things should be much improved. Today against an Iowa football program that was nearly dead last in the FBS (121st) on offense last year, those problems may not seem as hightligted today. It must be noted that Iowa has failed to cover 5 of their L/6 non conference tilts as favorites of 14 points or less and were only 4-3 SU at home last season. The Cowboys have also covered 5 season openers as underdogs. WYOMING is 6-0 ATS L/6 when the total is between 49.5 and 56.  

Play on Wyoming to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Horns start a new error today as HC Tom Herman takes over the reigns for the Texas Longhorns. You can bet he will have his team ready for a win in merciless fashion today as he makes sure his team gets of on the right foot. I know Maryland had a Bowl bid season in 2016, but I was not all that impressed by them and were a team that was out yarded by 49 ypg and finished their season losing 2 of their L/9 games and lost and failed to cover 5 straight games vs FBS opposition on the road last season losing by just under 23 ppg.  

Herman is 9-0 SU and 7-0 ATS L/9 non conference games. 

CFB Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points like Texas- excellent offense from last season - averaged 425 or more total yards/game, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 30-8 ATS dating back 10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Also CFB Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points like Texas - good offensive team from last season - scored 31 or more points/game, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 38-10 ATS over the same time perimeters for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Texas to cover 1 unit reg selection

Muncie, Indiana is just 170 miles away from Champaign, Illinois , and this is not much of a road trip for the Cards.Ball State is now a very underrated MAC East that is going to make some noise this season. It’s the second year for head coach Mike Neu, and he’s got a team that despite of having a rebuilding tag on it,  must be respected behind second year starter QB Ryan Neal and RB James Gilbert 1332 yds, 12 TDS. Meanwhile, Illinois is going to have a very inexperienced team, and have a new starter under center Chayce Crouch who will take over for former Chicago Bears head coach Lovie Smith. Illinois only averaged 19.7 points per game in 2016, ranking  at 122nd in the nation and getting points on the board will be a problem again here this season. I'm betting the Illini inability to move the ball consistently will be their downfall today. 
 
Cardinals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big Ten and have covered 4 straight non conference games..Fighting Illini are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. MAC. 
  
BALL ST is 17-4 ATS L/21 as a road underdog of 7 points or less .ILLINOIS is 12-26 ATS L/38 as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.

Ball State to cover 1 unit reg selection  

BC defensive front I'm betting will be dominant here in the opener vs N.Illinois and control their opponents offensive line. Both teams have been trying to move forward and get more explosive offensively, but the key factor here today will be the ability of Boston College to stop cold the N.Illinois run game, thus rendering the Huskies ability to spread the field and have an effective pass attack. Both teams should be subdued offensively, but BCs superior top tier D, will be the difference maker. 

Play on Boston College to cover 1 unit reg selection

Head coach Todd Graham,  of the Sun Devils is on the hot seat and to has show his detractors that he has the answers to some ugly questions about the stability of his defense and his ability to keep track in the talent laden PAC12. This in his opening game vs New Mexico state, I expect he makes sure his team leaves everything on the field. Yes, I do expect the  Aggies will do some scoring behind RB Larry Rose III and some talented receivers, but I also expect the Sun Devils D to be improved and to stifle the Aggies at key junctures of this game. In the end I 'm betting the Arizona States offense as the game progresses will swallow up the Aggies soft secondary and pass rush D, like a hungry desert snake and pull away for a lopsided victory and cover the spread.

CFB Home favorites of 21.5 or more points like Arizona State - terrible defense from last season - allowed 6.1 or more yards/play, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first month of the season are 32-9 ATS over the L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Arizona State to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Ohio State Buckeyes enter this game having beaten the Indiana Hoosiers 22 straight times, but the line for this game seems a little bit over blown, and their is a line value edge in taking the underdog.


The Buckeyes have failed to cover 6 of their L/8 as road favs of 23 points or less while the Hoosiers have covered 6 of their L/8 at home as double digit underdog as well as 20-1 SU L/21 home openers. Also road chalk of 20 or more points are just 0-6 ATS L/6 season openers. It must also be noted that Indiana has covered 6 straight in this series, and are an under rated Big 10 team with an above average D. With Oklahoma on board for next week, I'm not sure that Urban Meyer will have his troops leave everything on the field and probably be content with a victory as he irons out some early season kinks.

Indiana University coach Tom Allen knows the challenge his team faces Thursday night.
"Biggest home opener in the history of our program," Allen said. "I've know I've said that many times, but it is what it is, That's exactly the situation we find ourselves in."

With that said look for Indiana at home to come out here and play for respect on the national stage.

Play on Indiana to cover 1 unit reg selection

Allianz Stadium - Sydney Austrailia

Minutemen dropped 46-40 decision at Hawaii last year…Rainbow Warriors’ quarterback Dru Brown passed for 311 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions, and now gong into his second full year as a starter I'm betting he will be even smoother vs a Minuteman secondary that had only 4 interceptions all season long.

Meanwhile,  the Minutemen return seven offensive starters from last year’s team that compiled a ugly 2-10 record and nothing looks like it going to change this season , with core of the offense back , and doing what it does best and that is struggle to move the ball. Hey.I know Hawaii's D, is a lower tier group, but I expect they will do enough to fluster and easily frustrated Umass group. Yes, I also know the  UMass defense returns 10 starters but that's also hardly a good thing, considering how horrendous they were last season.

The difference maker here today, will be Hawaii's superior QB Brown, and the late start time  of 6:00 pm et which will screw with the UMass teams internal clock as they travel half way around the world for this tilt. Meanwhile Hawaii is virtually a hope skip and a jump from Australia and will feel no jet lag or time change issues.

Warriors 7-0 ATS season openers.HAWAII is 22-9 ATS  L/31 in the first two weeks of the season.

Hawaii to cover 1 unit reg selection

 Oregon State was playing at higher level by the end of the 2016 campaign. The Beavers finished Coach Gary Anderson’s second year with victories over Arizona and Oregon and must not be underestimated today vs Colorado State side that will opening a new on campus stadium.  I know the Rams have a lot of key offensive players returning, but unlike many others I'm not all that impressed , and feel their over rated, especially outside of the Mountain West Conference. 

I'm betting the Beavers Running back Ryan Nall will be the centerpiece of the offense today, and despite of a uncertain QB situation, the Beavers will be able to do some damage downfield via play action , vs a average at best secondary. As a sophomore last season Nall rushed for 951 yards and 13 touchdowns and should be even better this season .The defense improved during year two of the Coach Anderson era and Oregon States  goal will be to shore up the run defense which looks achievable. 

 Andersen is 20-8 ATS L/28 as a road underdog and  is 24-11 ATS L35 in non-conference games . 

OREGON ST is 8-1 ATS L/9 in games played on turf . 

I respect coach Anderson a lot, and like the way he is rebuilding this Oregon State side. With that said, I'll take his PAC 12 team to get us the cover here on the road in week 0.  

Play on the Oregon State Beavers to cover

New England has been head and shoulders the best team in the NFL this season, and must be respected here as short favorites in the Super Bowl against a upstart opponent the Atlanta Falcons. Of course the media, will play this up as being an evenly matched game. But I'm not sold on this scenario even though the linesmakers are making a FG game. Based on mathematics and stats, its hard to argue with the line, but every so often, more intangible facts must be focused on when handicapping a game of the this magnitude. Fact No.1 New England's QB Tom Brady is a proven future Hall of Fame long term winner, and previous Super Bowl Champion who knows how to win big games. Fact No.2 Bill Beilchick is arguably one of the NFL's greatest tacticians and coaches, and make the best of teams look ordinary. With Falcons HC Quinn's defense ranking 27th in the NFL in points allowed and starts four rookies, some open sided disadvantages are apparent in this Super Bowl. And yes, I know Falcons QB Matt Ryan is a stud QB, but he has proven inconsistent in his career and is far from bullet proof as a pocket passer, and was was heavily pressured in losses to the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles in the regular season. With that said, taking the Patriots for me is no brainer, and win or lose I feel confident this is the right side to be on this Sunday for Super Bowl XXXVIII. 

NEW ENGLAND is 7-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season with the average margin of victory coming by 12.3 ppg. NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS L/9 vs. top tier passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game winning by just under 20 ppg and is 10-1 ATS versus top tier offensive teams - averaging 6 or more yards/play and 14-3 ATS as a favorite this season.

Play on the New England Patriots to cover 1 unit reg selection

Ben Rothlisberger the QB of the Steelers has seen photographed with a walking boot, wnich tells a story of a leg injury,. Even before this happened I was leaning towards the Chiefs here at home at Arrowhead, but now I am 100% all in .KC HC Andy Reid is an amazing 18-0 SU in his career when his side is playing with rest against a sub par .888 opponent like Pittsburgh. ( NFL visiting teams in Steelers HC Tomlins 10 games have only covered 1 time) 

KANSAS CITY is 7-0 ATS L/7 after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game this season which occurred vs San Diego. 

NFL Favorites like KANSAS CITY - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent streaking team like the STEELERS, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games are 31-7 ATS dating back to the 2006/7 season.

Play on the KC Chiefs to cover - TOP PLAY- PLAY OFF GAME OF THE YEAR 

Clemson's  Deshaun Watson rolled up 478 yards and directed the Tigers to 40 points in last season's national championship, and now he is even more experienced and primed to get a crack at a national championship. Clemson carved up Alabama with 10 plays of 20-plus yards last season and were able to take advantage of the Tides percieved invinciibility. Meanwhile, Clemsons D, is even better in my opinion this time around, and now that their key offensive play caller /corodinator Lane Kiffin is now with Florida Atlantic, it becomes problematic for the the Tide. Look for Alabamas ture freshman QB Hurt to unexpectedly struggle and continue a long list of freshman QBs to fail to bring home a championship ,  as No true freshman quarterback has led his team to the national championship since 1985 (dating back 32 yrs). I actually believe that Clemson has a shot at a SU win here, but taking the points is the far better investment option.

CLEMSON is 8-1 ATS L/9  vs. top tier  teams - outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season.CLEMSON is 31-14 ATS L/45 as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. HC Swinney is 8-0 ATS L/8  in road games vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game.

College Football Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (ALABAMA) - excellent offensive team (440 YPG or more) against a team with a good defense (280 to 330 YPG), in non-conference games is just 10-32 ATS dating back 10 seasons.

Play on the Clemson tigers to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson enters  6-0 SU as a playoff favorite of 3 or more points. 

Meanwhile, the Lions are 0-16 SU and 2-12-2 ATS away versus the NFC West since 2001 The Lions are also .0-8 SU and 1-6-1 ATS in postseason play and from a matchup perspective Saettle is the superior side here in Starbucks land.

SEATTLE is 6-0 ATS L/6 in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more  yards/play in the second half of the season winning SU by an average of 16.5 ppg. 

It must be noted that the Seahawks' six playoff wins since 2013 are the most in the NFL, and Seattle owns a 48-13 home SU record (including playoffs) since Carroll arrived in 2010.

NFL Favorites like Seattle  - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, with a winning record in the second half of the season are 42-18 ATS for a 70% conversion rate.  

Play on the Seattle Seahawks to cover 1 unit reg selection 

In games like this defense wins out over offense. Look for the Tigers top tier D, and their abilty to run the ball, to slow down the Sooners explosive offense. 

OKLAHOMA is 0-6 ATS L/6 as a neutral field favorite over the last 3 seasons losing SU by almost 10 points per game. 

Auburn to cover 1 unit reg selection 

ROSE BOWL - Rose Bowl Stadium - Pasadena, CA

According to my own stats and numbers and power rankings USC is the most under rated team in the country. I do acknowledge, that Penn State got progressively better this season, and showed a great deal of tenacity when going down early to Wisconsin in the Big 10 Championship game, before coming back for the win. But allowing a sometimes pedestrian Wisconsin side to light them like they did, for 31 points does not bode well for their chances against a explosive USC offense that is also bolstered by a  solid defense,  that allowed top tier Washington Huskies just 13 points in a 26-13 road win. HC Franklin, of Penn St is 1-9 ATS in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 75% or better)

USC is 7-1 ATS and on a perfect 6-0 ATS run as a favorite this season.USC is 9-2 ATS L/11 vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game.

Play on USC to cover 1 unit reg selection 

The Lions enter this game  off two road losses, including a 42-21 smash down at the hands of the NFC's top team, Dallas, on Monday night. Now on short rest , and with their starting QB Stafford  in  a funk having  thrown four interceptions in the past three games since suffering ligament damage 3 weeks ago to his right middle finger vs Chicago , the Lions look like fade material vs a Packers side in top form. I know the Lions have won last six home games, but have had to come from behind all 6 times to get the win, but I am betting  their luck is set to come to abrupt end in this spot. NFL Road teams like Green Bay - after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season, 23-5  ATS. 

Play on the Green Bay Packers to cover 1 unit reg selection 

The Raiders a team that has won 8 of their L/9 games can secure the division title and a first-round bye in the playoffs with a win in the regular season finale against the Broncos. Needless to say the Raiders will be hyped up to perform, even though they are without starting QB Carr who broke his leg last week. The Raiders still get a decent QB in backup Matt McGloin,,  including a punishing offensive line that cleared the way for a 114-yard game by running back Latavius Murray in the first meeting against the Broncos and explosive WRs  ceivers Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. Meanwhile,  Denvers Coach Gary Kubiak said he plans to play both quarterback Trevor Siemian and his backup, Paxton Lynch, the Broncos' first-round draft pick, which Iam betting results in a methodical and muted offensive performance from the Broncos. Road teams like the Raiders - after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season are 23-5 ATS since 2011.  DENVER is 2-9 ATS L/11 versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more yards/play in the second half of the season.-

OAKLAND is 9-1 ATS L/10 in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season.DENVER is 0-6 ATS L/6 in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 2 seasons. 

Play on the Oakland Raiders to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Arizona had a horrible season, well below expectations, but came out one final time last Sunday, and upset Seattle. But now on the road for a second straight week, and in an emotional letdown state vs a lowly side that will keep them from being motivated, Im betting they fail to get the cover .Arizona  is 3-11 SU and 4-10 ATS away following Seattle, and is also 0-8 SU away in fi nal games of the season.

LA Rams to cover 1 unit reg selection 

The Indianapolis Colts take on the Jacksonville Jaguars in a game , that I am betting sees a conclusive Colts victory. Both don;t have play off aspirations, but both would obviously like to end their seasons on a high note.  I know Jacksonville, after the firing of their coach, came out pumped up and delivered a resounding victory, vs Tennessee last week, by a 38-17 count. But it must be noted that NFL Road underdogs or pick like Jaguars - off a upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog against opponent off a road loss, which Indy sufferred last week. are 19-48 ATS in their follow up game for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

JACKSONVILLE is 6-16 ATS L/22 in road games off a home win by 10 points or more and is  7-20 ATS L/27 after outgaining opp by 150 or more total yards in their previous game. The Jaguars are also 0-13 SU off a win, when going against .400 or less competition and 0-10 SU in final away games. Meanwhile, Colts QB Andrew Luck is 20-3 lifetime SU/ATS off a SU/ATS loss, including 12-0 SU/ATS against a below .500 opponent. 

Play on Indianapolis to cover 1 unit reg selection 

PLAYSTATION FIESTA BOWL - Univ of Phoenix Stadium - Phoenix, AZ

Alot has been made of Ohio States HC Urban Meyers 45-3 record with more than a week to prepare for an opponent, but what few are saying, is that Clemson handed Meyer one of those losses. 

 With that said, I expect QB Watson Heisman Trophy finalist who showed off his star abilities in last seasons  national championship game when he smashed Alabama's vaunted defense for 405 passing yards and four touchdowns through the air to once again be the catalyst for a Clemson cover .  Also look for the Tigers to use the  Northwestern successful blueprint that was used earlier this season vs Ohio States assumed to be  dominant secondary. On D, Im betting a Clemson side, that had 46 sacks (2nd in the nation) to give Ohio States offense enormous trouble.

HC Swinney of Clemson  is 8-0 ATS L/8 in road games vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season and is 7-0 ATS L/7 in road games vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game.

Play on the Clemson  TOP SELECTION - Bowl Game of the Year

BUFFALO WILD WINGS CITRUS BOWL - Camping World Stadium - Orlando, FL
Louisville vs LSU 
According to my power rankings this game is as close to a pickem as you can get, thus getting points with Louisville makes for a strong wager in my opinion. The Cards were deflated towards the end of the season, but must not be underestimated here, as they look to get back some respect from a college football world that no longer thinks they were capable national contenders in the first place. 
LOUISVILLE is 11-1 ATS L/12 in road games off an upset loss as a home favorite which happened in their L/ game of the season, vs Kentucky.Petrino is 21-9 ATS L/30 in road games in games played on turf .

Play on Louisville to cover 1 unit reg selection

TAXSLAYER BOWL - Everbank Field - Jacksonville, FL
Kentucky vs Georgia Tech 
Gtech was highly inconsistent this season with their option offense, and will have their hands full with a SEC defense that has had time to prepare for them. Bob Stoops football program won 5 of their L/7 games, and also have a run game that can match the Yellowjackets attack. This ones going to be grinder, and Kentucky has the weapons to not only cover but steal a win. 
All teams where the line is +3 to -3 like GTecg - an average offensive team (21-28 PPG) against a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) after 7 or more games, in non-conference games are 26-5 ATS dating back to the 2006 campaign.

Play on Kentucky to cover 1 unit reg selection

NOVA HOME LOANS ARIZONA BOWL - Arizona Stadium - Tucson, AZ

The Air Force Falcons finished their season with an overall record of 9-3 and enter their Bowl game on an impressive 5-game winning streak and will ride that momentum into this tilt. Offensively, the Falcons were led by their rushing attack that ranked 3rd in the country,and will take advantage of a team that depends on their defense to be competitive but allowed and average of 36.7 ppg in their L/3 games. The Jaguars are 3-9 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 8-24 ATS in their last 32 games overall

S ALABAMA is 0-7 ATS L/7 in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 or more  yards/game by an average of 20.7 ppg. S ALABAMA is 0-6 ATS L/6 in road games after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games and 4-15 ATS L/19 in the second half of the season.

College Football teams like Air Force  - excellent rushing team (4.8 YPR or more) against a terrible rushing defense (4.8 YPR or more) after 7+ games, after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards in 2 straight game are 36-9 ATS L/45. 

Air Force to cover 1 unit reg selection 

FRANKLIN AMER. MORT. MUSIC CITY BOWL - Nissan Stadium - Nashville, TN

From a power ranking standpoint in a cross conference reference guide I have created for Bowl season, tells me a story of an under appreciated Nebraska side, that looked tired in the later part of the this season. Now rejuvenated I look for them to give an extremely inconsistent  Tennessee team a real run for the money in the Music City Bowl and get us the cover. 

Nebraska's HC Riley is 21-8 ATS L/29 when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest.

All College Football teams where the line is +3 to -3 like the Volunteers - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games are just 7-31 ATS L/38 dating back to the 2011 campaign.

Play on Nebraska to cover 1 unit reg selection 

 updte: Stanfords Christian McCaffrey expected to miss Friday vs. North Carolina ( Personal 

NC HC Fedora is 10-2 ATS L/12 in road games vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game in all games he has coached .N CAROLINA is 8-1 ATS L/9 after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 2 seasons.

College Football teams where the line is +3 to -3 like Stanford - an average offensive team (21-28 PPG) against a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) after 7+ games, in non-conference games are just 5-26 ATS dating back 10 seasons, for a go against conversion rate of 83%.

Play on the North Carolina to cover 1 unit reg selection

AUTOZONE LIBERTY BOWL - Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium - Memphis, TN- TCU vs Georgia - 
It will be a battle of TCU's offense, which averages 461 yards per game, against Georgia's defense, which ranks 18th in the nation with 314 yards allowed per contest. I know TCU imploded towards the end of the season, with 4 straight home losses. but Georgia has shown they can implode at the worst times, such as was the case again Tennesse, blowoing a late lead and losing, and in this matchup, could have problems competing if TCUs offense is in a rhythm, which was also the case vs the Vols.
TCU is 12-3 ATS L/15 vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less yards per return.HC Patterson of TCU is 20-10 ATS when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest . 
College Football teams where the line is +3 to -3 like Georgia - an average offensive team (21-28 PPG) against a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) after 7 or more games, in non-conference games are 5-26 ATS for a 84% conversion rate.

Play on TCU to cover 1 unit reg selection

ADVOCARE V100 TEXAS BOWL - NRG Stadium - Houston, TX

Im a big Bill Snyder fan , and will back his side here today, vs a downtrodden Texas A&M Aggies side, that had a disappointing year, after some great expectations. 

TEXAS A&M is 4-13 ATS L/17 when playing against a team with a winning record and 1-8 ATS  versus good rushing teams - averaging 200 or more rushing yards/game like Kansas State.TEXAS A&M is 0-8 ATS L/8. Texas A&M HC Sumlin is 0-9 ATS L/10 off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival which happened against LSU last time out and 1-9 ATS L/10 against a top tier team with a win % of between .600 and ,750. 

Play on Kansas State to cover 1 unit reg selection 

RUSSELL ATHLETIC BOWL - Camping World Stadium - Orlando, FL-West Virginia vs Miami 
Mark Richts Canes are a young crew, and despite of finishing on a 4 game win streak, showed some major gaps in concentration. Manwhile, West Virginia showed glmipses of being a power house team going forward, and with the added time off should be explosive in this game. 
MIAMI is 0-6 ATS L/6 versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 or more yards/game like West Virginia. 

West Virginia to cover 1 unit reg selection

MOTEL 6 CACTUS BOWL - Chase Field - Phoenix, AZ

Baylor vs Boise State 

Im betting Baylor pounds away with their ground game against Boise State, and take advantage of a program that has not faired well against teams that can move the chains consistently on the ground,  going just 3-12 ATS L/15 versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.75 rushing or more yards/carry . Boise State in their L/game of the season, lost 27-20 to Air force, and have shown a propensity to fall asleep at the proverbial wheel at key junctures of games this season. Look for Baylor to lull their opponents to sleep with a slow methodical approach and pace.

Baylor to cover 1 unit reg selection 

 Kansas City enters this game having to take on a defending Super Bowl Champion that needs to win or a chance at a play off spot.  It must be noted that defending chmaps have only failed to cover 2 of their L13 as underdogs off consecutive losses, which they have just endured and 4-0-1 ATS L/5 under those peremiters. Meanwhile, the Chiefs in my humble opinion are over rated and despite of being 10-4 are just 4-10 in the stats battles in those tilts, and are fortunate to have their current winning record.  Im going against a KC side, that  is producing ugly offensive numbers as they are No. 23 in offensive yards per game (331.4) and ranks 15th in points with an average of 22.8 points per game. They are No. 27 on third downs (34.8 percent) and No. 27 in the red zone (44.4 percent.) Meanwhile, the The Broncos are own one of the NFLs best Ds, allowing 310.9 yards per game (No. 2) and only 183 passing yards (No. 1). They are fourth in fewest points allowed, at an average of 18.4 points per game. Denver has won its lat two visits here and will take the cash for us again. 

Play on Denver to cover 1 unit reg selection

Even without quarterback Ryan Tannehill, the Miami Dolphins remain a team that is finding ways to win. These types of tenacious teams are always good bets. The Dolphins (9-5) have won eight of their last nine games and control their fate in the AFC wild-card race and despite of not always looking pretty on the NFL Sunday stage, have muscled their way into a possible play off spot. Yes, I know Miami has not won in Buffalo since 2011, but interim QB Matt Moore was the Dolphins' quarterback for that game and has the experience needed to guide this Fins team to a cover and possible upset in Buffalo this Saturday.Miami relied on its running game to come back and beat Buffalo, 28-25, at home in Week 8, and Im betting RB Jay Ajayi who had 214 of the Dolphins' 256 rushing yards to be the catalyst again.

NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like the Fins - after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning record in the second half of the season are 20-10 ATS or a 66% conversion rate.

The Bills are 0-14 ATS as a favorite over a divisional opponent after a double-digit win as a favorite in which they had fewer than ten incompletions.

Play on the Miami Dolphins to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Washington has lost three of its past four games and look like very weak favorites this week vs a Chicago Bears team that has been fiesty of late despite of a ugly over all record.  Quote: "Our guys keep believing," said Bears quarterback Matt Barkley, who will make his fifth start in place of injured teammates Jay Cutler and Brian Hoyer. "They never count themselves out. (It's important) just to keep that positive attitude in the huddle and keep that positive attitude on the sideline to know that we're still in it." ED QUOTE. I know QB Cousins of Washington is dangerous and explosive with a healthy WR Reed taking catches, but Reeds been hampered by a sore shoulder. Also the Bears pass D, is solid, as they counter with an above-average pass rush that features three players with at least seven sacks.  

CHICAGO is 7-0 ATS L/7  vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att and 8-0 ATS L/8 versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or more yards/play .CHICAGO is 11-0 ATS L/11 off a home cover where the team lost as an underdog, which happened against GB last week and is 11-2 ATS L/13 after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games.

Chicago Bears to cover 1 unit reg selection 

acksonville looks to spoil the Tennessee Titans current run towards a post season slot. Jacksonville  has lost 9 straight, and this past Sunday fired Gus Bradley.  But are still capable of packing a punch vs a Titans side that might be looking towards next week finale vs the Houston Texans.Titans coach Mike Mularkey had one consistent repeat message for his club this week: Don't overlook the Jacksonville Jaguars, but that 's easier said than done. I know the Jags don't give alot of betting backers confidence, and have some injuries and a new coach, but the lines-makers, despite of all this still only make the visiting Titans 4.5 point favorites and for good reason. It must also be noted they last time interim head coach Marrone coached back in 2014/14 he, was 5-0 ATS off consecutive losses and the Jags are a perfect 5-0 ATS L/5 final home games of the season.

Jacksonville Jaguars to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Both these teams enter this tilt on 7-0 ATS runs. Colorado State , however, finished their season with a 63-31 smash down of Mountain West ChampsSan Diego State, and have been made hefty favorites in part for the aforementioned win. Meanwhile, Idaho is still no push over, and are being disrespected by the linesmakers in this spot. Yes, I do know Colorado State showed off an explosive offense, during their campaign, but The Idaho defense limited three of its last four opponents to 14 or fewer points.
HC of Idaho Petrino is 12-4 ATS versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 200 or more rushing yards/game.
College football Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points like Idaho - after beating the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 89-46 ATS since 1992 for a 66% conversion rate! 

Play on Idaho to cover 1 unit reg selection

BOCA RATON BOWL - FAU Stadium - Boca Raton, FL

Memphis vs W.Kentucky 

Alot has been said about Western Kentucky, and its explosive offense, but their achillies heel is their defense that was torched by LA Tech twice this season for 50 plus points. I know the Toppers D numbers are stable, but that was against weak  to average opposition. Im betting that's going to be the Hilltoppers demise this week, vs a Memphis side ranked 17th in scoring offense (39.5 points per game) finished its season with a 48-44 upset over 18th-ranked Houston. The Tigers are led by junior QB Riley Ferguson, who compiled a amazing 152.2 passing rating (28 TDs, 3,326 yards). This will be a back and forth affair, but the Tigers will make a few more key stops that will be the difference maker today

Play on the Memphis Tigers to cover 1 unit reg selection 

The Oakland Raiders visit the San Diego Chargers in a game that will feature two to the best QBs in the NFL. The Chargers Philip Rivers and Raiders Derek Carr. Both teams have offensive weapons, but Im betting on the Raiders being able to make a few more key stops, to pull off a victory here this Sunday.

Chargers HC McCoy is 0-7 ATS L/7 in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. SAN DIEGO is 0-7 ATS L/7 in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game, like the Raiders losing SU by an average of 8.9 ppg. SAN DIEGO is 0-7 ATS L/7 in home games after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games. OAKLAND is 10-1 ATS L/11 in road games against conference opponents. 

Play on the Oakland Raiders to cover 1 unit reg selection 

After losing to the Miami Dolphins last week  26-23 in heart breaking fashion, the Arizona Cards are now out of the running for a post season birth and come home in a big time letdown situation. Now enters Drew Brees and the leagues No. 1-rated offense of the Saints, who are averaging 418.3 yards per game. I know Arizona has put big defensive numbers up this season, but they are dealing with some injury issues, and as mentioned above a motivational issue this week.

Arizona has also failed to cover 4 straight final home games of the season and have failed to cover 6 of their L/7 overall.

NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS L/17  as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Home favorites Cardinals  - off a road loss, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25-40%) are a bankroll depleting 15-44 ATS in their followup for a 75% go against conversion rate on the line. 

Play on the New Orleans Saints to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Just one victory away from clinching a spot in the AFC playoffs, the Kansas City Chiefs host the Tennessee Titans on Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium. I am however, betting that win if they get it will come so easily. The 7-6 Titans will arrive in Kansas City with their postseason chances still alive and will play for their lives here today. I know the Titans QB Mariota is off a down game last time vs Denver, but the  AFC's Offensive Player of the Month in November will bounce back in a big way. Last week, the Cheifs were lucky to stall the Raiders, in key red zone situations, but this week, they face a Tennessee  side that owns the  NFL's top offense in the red zone, scoring touchdowns on 71.4 percent of its 42 trips inside the 20-yard line .

HC  Reid of KC  is 1-9 ATS  in lifetime home games against AFC South division opponents.

Play on the Tennessee Titans to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Cincinnati despite of suffering through a down year, have won and covered two straight, and have been very competitive in 6 straight games, losing by 1 , 4, and points in their losses. Today against their instate rivals the Steelers I expect we will see the very best of the Bengals, as they would love nothing more than to upset their play off expectations. 

PITTSBURGH is 5-16 ATS L/21 in road games after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games. CINCINNATI is 8-1 ATS L/9 after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games. The Bengals  are a perfect 5-0 ATS L/5 home situations.

Play on the Cincinnati Bengals to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Houston after suffering 3 straight losses snapped their losing streak with a 22-17 win vs the Indy Colts last week. Their running game and a grinding methodical effort got them to the promised land. But it must be noted that HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS L/6  after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game. I know Jacksonville may not inspire alot of bettors, but according to my own power ranking should only be 3 point dogs, here which gives us value on the line. 

Road underdogs or pick like the Jags - after 7 or more consecutive losses, in the second half of the season are 51-21 ATS for a massive 70% conversion rate for betting backers. 

Play on the Jacksonville Jags to cover 1 unit reg selection 

CAMELLIA BOWL - Cramton Bowl - Montgomery, AL

Toledo vs App State 

Both these teams are offensively capable, but according to my matchup analysis, the Rockets are better overall with their attack, and  did their best work against superior opponents than the Mountaineers . Alot has been said, about App States D, but Toledo despite of being torched by a few explosive offenses, this season, are a stop unit that must not be under estimated. Appalachian State is 0-4 ATS in their last four games on field turf;TOLEDO is 7-0 ATS L/7 in non-conference games and 4-0-1 ATS L/5 vs Sun Belt opposition. 

Play on Toledo to cover 1 unit reg selection