BYU (6-5) knocked off a ranked opponent on the road earlier this season and is more than capable of turning the trick again as they have the added incentive of needing to  notch back-to-back wins to get bowl eligible. I know Utah is a top tier team, but when these programs have met in the past records  and stats go out the window, as 17 out of the last 20 games in the Holy War have been decided by seven points or less.BYU is  also 21-3-1 ATS as a road dog with revenge, including 14-1 ATS against opposition with at least one loss on the season like Utah. With No. 17 ranked Utah looking ahead to next weeks PAC 12 championship game, expect the unexpected. Take the points. 

BYU is 6-0 ATS in road games in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.

BYU to cover 

Notre Dame deserves to be in the top 6 teams in the country, and despite of USC having an off year, they are still extremely talented with a deep recruiting class. With that said, I wont be surprised if the Trojans play their best game of this season this Saturday for the Irish to may not be so lucky. It must also be noted that the Trojans are 6-0 ATS as home pups  with a below .500 record and the visitor in this series i 0-5 ATS L/5 meetings and USC is 8-3 ATS when hosting this series.

NOTRE DAME is 0-9 ATS  off 2 consecutive home wins by 14 points or more since 1992.

CFB Road favorites (NOTRE DAME) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) after 7+ games, after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 6-25 ATS since 1992 for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on USC to cover 

 The Governor's Cup matchup at Louisville's Cardinal Stadium between the Cardinal and Wildcats is best summef up by the following quotes: 

"In a rivalry game you can throw the records out the window," Stoops said. "We're worried about ourselves and playing the best football we can and just finishing.

"I think anytime you play a rival, the guys on the other side are going to play harder," said Louisville interim coach Lorenzo Ward, whose Cardinals (2-9) haven't won since a 20-17 decision over Western Kentucky back on Sept. 15. "It's about pride, so you can throw the records out. Regardless of how a season's gone, it's still the same as if we were undefeated."

Key Trend:KENTUCKY is 1-11 ATS  as a favorite over the last 2 seasons

Take the points with Louisville to cover 

New Mexico State beat Liberty 49-41 in their first meeting this season and matchup well against them. Meanwhile, Liberty D, is currently a shambles, has allowed an average of 40.4 ppg on the season.

Liberty HC Gill is 1-9 ATS after playing 2 straight non-conference games in all games he has coached since 1992.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW MEXICO ST) - in a game involving two average rushing teams (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) after 7+ games are 54-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on New Mexico State to cover

Rice at 1-11 might not inspire bettors but Old Dominion despite of some upsets this season have for majority of the time played down to their opponents, and are never a safe bets as a favorite especially on the road. 

RICE is 22-10 ATS  in home games when playing against a team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) since 1992. RICE is 25-10 ATS  in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better.

RICE is 44-25 ATS as a home underdog since 1992.RICE is 31-16 ATS in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.Wilder is 7-16 ATS  after playing a non-conference game as the coach of OLD DOMINION.

CFB team (RICE) - after scoring 14 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 59-26 ATS L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Rice to cover 

Michigan is a team on a mission this season, but their going into a place that will be extremely unwelcoming, against a side that has won 6 straight and 13 of their L/14 games playing with a chip on their shoulders as they have been shredded for being pretenders because of  what many are saying is a weak defence.  Today in contrarian fashion I expect the Buckeyes D, will stand tall, and for super star QB Dwayn Haskins and company to make Michigan amazing D, to look human.

Ohio State are  7-1 ATS L/8 as home dogs versus .900 or better opposition , and a perfect 8-0 100%  ATS as home dogs of +2.5 or more points. Ohio State under HC Urban Meyer is  is 102-10 SU at home on his career, with only four losses by more than 4 points.

CFB  Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (OHIO ST) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG), after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 37-12 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Ohio State Buckeyes to cover 

The Herd comes in playing its best ball of the season, winning four of their last five games while holding their three last opponents to season low in yards.  With some important  play off implications on the line here today, I expect Marshall will be primed to bump Florida International off here because if FIU wins they advance to the championship game. Add to that they have revenge on board for a 41-30 loss at home the last time these teams met, and you have a motivated Marshall team in top form to back. 

CFB Road favorites (MARSHALL) - after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 58-21 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

 Marshall to cover 

When this season started the pundits expected Washington to be  one of the best teams in the nation. They are still a fine team, but have subsequently lost their lustre with losses to Utah, California, and Oregon. ( The 3 losses came by 4, 3, 2 points respectively and the games could have gone either way)  But now with redemption at hand this senior group of Huskies can upset the Apple cart with a win vs a Washington State (10-1, 7-1 Pac-12)  football program playing for its first conference title in 16 years and its first trip to the College Football Playoff. A win in this tilt will also propel Washington into the PAC 12 championship game where they will have a revenge scenario vs Utah to take care of. 

  WSU HC Mike Leach has a fine team, and are a top tier group who deserve respect  .  But Washington State has not faired well in this series and are  0-4 SUATS the last four, 1-7 ATS as a favorite and 0-5 ATS at home and Im betting wont get the cheese for their betting backers.

Play on Washington Huskies  to cover 

Oklahoma  football program owns a 19-1 SU record  in their last twenty overall away games, and 17-0 SU in their last seventeen conference away games and Im betting that streak continues  when the the dust settles here tonight in this tilt vs the West Virginia Mountaineers. I know the Mounties must be respected with  future NFL draft pick Grier under centre, but Dana Holgorsons  football crew just cant seem to get over the hump and have failed miserably against to tier football programs in the recent past going just 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS against .900 or better conference opp. The status quo remains in effect again, as West Virginia finds a way to lose this tilt vs a side that needs a win and to guaranteed a shot at the Big 12 Championship crown.

Holgorsen is 0-10 ATS  after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games as the coach of W VIRGINIA , which has just happened. 

Play on Oklahoma Sooners to cover 

On a current 23 game win streak, UCF is feeling pressure to stay undefeated. After their huge win last week vs Cincinnati on National TV , this talented athletic group might find the attention their getting detrimental to their ability to  focus. Meanwhile,  USF their opponents a  team that despite of struggling of late is capable of making life difficult for their opponents behind a strong offence that has averaged 31.2 ppg at home this season. UCF won last season in a 47-42 shoot out vs Charlie Strong's group, but South Florida won the previous 3 meetings and are 7-2 SU L/9 in this series, and get the nod tonight. 

CFB Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (UCF) - after 8 or more consecutive straight up wins, a top-level team ( 80%) or better  playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 18-48 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the South Florida Bulls to cover 

Virginia and Virginia Tech prepare to do battle in a game I have pegged to be closely contested. I know VTech has lost 4 straight, but Virginia is struggling a little bit as well, as the Cavs have lost 2 of their L/3  . Virginia is also 3-8 ATS in their last 11 in November and 1-4 ATS in their last five Friday games and are not as strong a side as some pundits might think. Vtech has won 10 of the L/14 meetings in this series when hosting  and Im betting if the Hokies lose today it wont be by more than the point spread. 

VTech has won 14 straight meetings in this series.

 CFB team (VIRGINIA TECH) - after 5 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 39-11 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on VTech to cover 

The Bulls took their first conference road loss of the season last time out in Ohio in. a surprising 52-17 loss. Now at 9-2 overall and 6-1 in the Mid-American Conference, Buffalo will play at Bowling Green this week with a chance to clinch to MAC East Division title. With redemption on their plate for their ugly loss to Ohio and with the MAC East title on the line Im betting on a huge effort from the Bulls versus a  out gunned Bowling Green side.

BOWLING GREEN is 1-9 ATS in home games over the last 2 seasons with the average point differential clicking in at 15 ppg. 

CFBhome team (BOWLING GREEN) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 7-32 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors.

CFBRoad favorites (BUFFALO) - average rushing team(+/- 40 RY/G) against a terrible team who is outrushed by 80+ YPG after 7+ games, in conference games.  are 40-14 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Buffalo Bulls to cover 

Two long instate SEC rivals the Mississippi State  Bulldogs and Mississippi Rebels  go head to head this Thursday night in a game  that I have pegged to be alot closer than the lines makers are estimating. This tilt is referred to as the  Egg bowl , and in Ole Miss finale this Thursday I expect they will play this like a Bowl game and leave everything on the field. Remember Ole Miss cannot play in a real Bowl game because of NCAA sanctions and penalties. Look for Rebels  super star WRS, A.J. Brown and D.K. Metcalf, who all could be first-round picks in the 2019 NFL Draft to go all out here in what will their final college football games of their careers. Last years game was physical and closely contested with the Rebs coming away with a 31-28 win, after blowing a big lead. With that said, I look for another war here and for the points to end up being golden. 

The Rebs are 7-3 SU  and 6-3-1 ATS in the last 10 home Egg Bowls

Bulldogs are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Underdog has cashed 5 of the L/6 meetings. MISSISSIPPI ST is 0-6 ATS  after having won 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons Miss State has failed to cover 3 of their 4 road games this season.

CFB team (OLE MISS) - after 5 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 39-11 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Ole Miss to cover 

According to my power rankings and head to head systems analysis, the Rams matchup very well against the KC Chiefs and in a game that Im betting will see a lot of TDs, laying a FG is not asking to much and is actually a viable wagering option. Especially with this game moved to LA. It must be noted that when this tilt was scheduled to be played in Mexico City the Rams were 2.5 point chalk , so this line considering the new venue very much favors the Rams and their betting backers.

 
KANSAS CITY is 6-17 ATS L/23 in road games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/att.KANSAS CITY is 2-10 ATS L/12 after gaining 6 or more yards/play in 4 consecutive game.

NFL Road teams vs. the money line (KANSAS CITY) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a top-level team (75%) or more playing a team with a winning record are 4-22 L/10 seasons and 1-10 L/5 seasons and have lost 4 straight last 3 seasons, with the combined average loss coming by 9.3 ppg.

NFL Favorites (LA RAMS) - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games are 30-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road teams (KANSAS CITY) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after allowing 14 points or less last game are 6-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the LA Rams to cover

The Bears are leading in the division, just ahead of the Vikings , which means this game is for first place. This  tilt  should feature play off intensity which will favour the more experienced big game team, which is the Minnesota Vikings. The Bears have had a fine season thus far, but this matchup is a step up in class. When the chips are down , Ill back the smash mouth Vikings getting points. Yes, da Bears  looked good last week, against the downtrodden Lions but in the past CHICAGO has been a bad bet in the followup going  0-8 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game. I personally believe everyone is getting a little bit ahead of themselves with backing Chicago as possible top tier team going forward ,and tonight I expect that when the final whistle blows that some pundits time to pause and rethink their positions. Hey folks Im not knocking the Bears, and  in the not so distant future, might actually ending up being as good as the headlines might indicate , However,  Im just saying there is value taking the under rated Vikings in this spot as dogs.  Note: Vikes HC Mike Zimmer is  13-1-1 ATS versus opponents coming off a double-digit win.

Play on the Minnesota Vikings to cover 

 .

New Orleans is  nightmare for defensive co-orridnators to deal with, but Philadelphia coaching staff, are extremely capable as they have proven in the recent past .    The Saints despite of all the accolades they are getting are weak favs here and have been in the past when irrational exuberance has been prevalent as is evident by their  0-8 ATS L/8 record as a favorite of at least eight points . New Orleans recent top tier performances including last weeks domination against Cincinnati, 51-14 has everyone and his dog, singing the praises of Drew Bree's and company.  Last week the Saints accumulated a ungodly 509 of offense in their victory but in the past the Saints have been a bad bet in the followup going just  0-7 ATS L/7 coming off a game as a road favorite where they had at least 400 yards of total offense  . The Saints also dominated time of possession  (39:46) but once again have failed in their followup going 0-7 ATS  L/7 coming off a game as a road chalk when they had at least 32 minutes time of possession. Also it must be noted that Defending Super Bowl Champions like the Eagles  are 13-1 ATS as road dogs versus .825 + opposition  including 7-0 SUATS since 2000.

PHILADELPHIA is 8-0 ATS  versus good rushing defenses - allowing 90 roles rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons.PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 ATS  vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. over the last 2 seasons

 NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PHILADELPHIA) - good passing team - with a completion pct of 60% or better, after gaining 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games are 25-7 ATS L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Philadelphia Eagles to cover 

 Carolina got embarrassed last Thursday in a 52-21 loss at Pittsburgh and will be primed for bounce back win here vs slumping Lions  team that is on a current 3-game SUATS losing streak. Believe me when I say pros do not like to be embarrassed, especially the Panthers..With that said, Im betting on Carolina a side that is 12-1 SU and 13-0 ATS in road games when coming off a double-digit loss and taking on a sub .500 opponent to be ready to deliver themselves redemption in. a big way here today. The Panthers are also bankroll fattening 8-1 ATS in tilts after giving up 40 or more points .

HC Rivera is 22-3 ATS off a road loss as the coach of CAROLINA.

Detroit is an nasty 0-12 ATS as a underdog on artificial turf when they are off a road loss by more than a TD and they are facing a team that has committed an average of less than 1.5 turnovers per game season-to-date. DETROIT is 2-15 ATS L/17 against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game in the second half of the season.

Play on the Carolina Panthers to cover 

Last week, the Tennessee Titans ended their seven-game losing streak against Tom Brady with a surprising and  convincing 34-10 victory over the New England Patriots. On Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, the Titans will not be so lucky this week ( pardon the pun) vs another top tier  quarterback when they face the Colts. The Titans are 0-9 all time against Andrew Luck who was key in a win vs the Jags last week. 

TENNESSEE is 1-9 ATS in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 and is  1-9 ATS in road games after gaining 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. 

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TENNESSEE) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning record on the season are 9-33 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Indianapolis to cover 

The Jaguars in a must win situation today have really struggled of late, but they actually matchup well vs the Pittsburgh Steelers.The Steelers have won five consecutive games while the Jaguars have lost five in a row.I know both teams are operating at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum, but the Jags desperation and the type of football Im confident the Jags can play when cornered will challenge the Steelers this Sunday. I expect the Jaguars  No. 2 overall defense and No. 1 ranked  pass D  to be the difference maker in what will be a hard fought game. 

 Steelers are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

NFL team (JACKSONVILLE) - a poor offensive team (14-18 PPG) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG), after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 30-8 ATS L/10 seasons  for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Jacksonville Jaguars to cover 

The Rebels  pulled off  huge upset last time out  when they beat the San Diego State Aztecs as 24-point dogs, 27-24. Im betting they use the momentum of that game to buoy them here in Paradise Island tonight vs a tired looking Rainbow Warriors side that has put alot of air miles  on their bodies this season. 

HAWAII is 0-11 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 2 seasons.UNLV is 6-0 ATS  as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons

CFB  road team (UNLV) - off a win against a conference rival, with 4+ more total starters and an experienced QB returning against team with new QB are 44-17 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB  home team vs. the money line (HAWAII) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in 4 consecutive games against opponent after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 5-29 SU L/22 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on UNLV to cover 

Last season  the Washington State Cougars were upset  in Tucson  against the Arizona Wildcats  as road chalk  by a 58-37count and now revenge is at hand for the Cougars at home here in Pullman this week.   I know Khalil Tate is a star QB, and gives Arizona a chance when he is healthy , but this is not a good situation for the Wildcats as they will have problems on the defensive side of the ball dealing with the Cougars deadly aerial attack and a overall 10-0 mark in the ITS battles. 

 ***Cougars quarterback Gardner Minshew II, the nation's leader in passing yards per game (385.2), and a Washington State attack that leads the nation in passing yards per game (392.3). The Wildcats rank 10th in the conference in total defense (417 yards per game) and ninth in pass defense (248.7 yards per game).

 WASHINGTON ST is 10-0 ATS  after gaining 325 or more passing yards in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. ST is 6-0 ATS vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game over the last 2 seasons with a average ppg diff of 14.2 . ARIZONA is 1-10 ATS in road games after scoring 37 points or more in 2 straight games.

Play on the Washington State Cougars to cover 

Georgia Southern is in the precarious position of coming into this road game in an emotional letdown situation after facing Troy last week at home and losing, which puts an end to their Sun Belt East conquest. It must be noted that Coastal Carolina Chanticleers do not make alot of mistakes , which is not a good omen for a Georgia Southern side, that has a 21 turnover margin this season. Georgia S. has failed to cover 6 straight vs teams like Coastal that have one or less turnovers a game on average. The Chanticleers have two games left and they need to grab a win to be bowl eligible, which makes them motivated home dogs. 

CFB Favorites of -175 to -400 vs. the money line (GA SOUTHERN) - opportunistic team (2.5+ TO/game forced) against a team with 1.25 or less TO/game forced after 8+ games, in conference games are 9-22 SU L/26 seasons for a 71% go against conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Coastal Carolina to cover 

Senior citizen Hall of Fame coach of the year HC Bill Snyder in his final campaign  before retiring has had a down year, but still must not be discounted at home as the   Red Raiders come knocking. With Texas Techs Freshman  star QB Alan Bowman out with a collapsed lung injury Texas Tech will go with backup QB Jett Duffey who despite of looking good against Texas last time out, is still not ready for whats coming here in this nasty road  environment where the home team needs wins desperately to go Bowling this season and help their long time coach go out with hands raised. It must be noted that Snyder is 32-3 SU at home against opponents off consecutive losses like the Techsters are, including 11-0 ATS vs.400 or better opposition.

CFB ( TEXAS TECH) - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games are 12-39 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against  77% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB  road team vs. the money line (TEXAS TECH) - off 2 straight losses to conference rivals, allowing 31 points or more against opponent off a home win are 3-33 L/10 seasons for a 91%  go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on KState to cover 

 Northwestern clinched the Big Ten West crown last week by  taking out the Iowa Hawkeyes and Im betting they won't be as motivated here this week in what should be a natural letdown situation. . Meanwhile, Minnesota  upset and pounded the Purdue Boilers, 41-10, as a 10.5-point home dog.   The  Gophers still need one win in their last two games to go bowling and will  go all out here to beat Northwestern  , because the following week sees them go to Wisconsin.  I know Northwestern somehow clinched the West this season, but they are far from being a top tier side, as is evident by an offence that is  ranked No. 112 in the nation and that has been out yarded by an average of 23 YPG. Add to that Minnesota has also had this game circled  and have revenge on board for a nasty 39-0 loss in Evanston last season and you have a viable wagering opportunity backing the home dog Gophers\. 

MINNESOTA is 10-1 ATS off a upset win as a double digit underdog. 

CFB  road team vs. the money line (NORTHWESTERN) - off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 or more points against opponent off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival are 3-33 L/26 seasons for a 92% go against conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Minnesota Gophers to cover 

Both these teams need wins to be Bowl eligible which will make for a hard fought game. TCU rushing attack was down right bad last week vs West Virginia, but  should do much better here vs a Baylor side  that  is a league worst against the rush allowing 183.8 yards a game on the ground. TCU has  the best third-down defense in the league, limiting opponents to a 33.1 percent conversion rate in those situations (47-for-142).Baylor, strength offesnively has been meanwhile,   third downs by converting 45.5 percent (66-for-145) , but in a close game TCU D, looks set to be the difference maker. 

 CFB Road favorites (TCU) - after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game, with 5 offensive starters returning are 33-7 ATS L/26 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on TCU 

Boise  State is coming off a huge win vs Fresno State at home last week by a 24-17 count, and should now be in an emotional letdown spot coming into this game against New Mexico. I know the Lobos don't inspire bettors, after a disappointing season and 5 straight losses, but according to my own projections this point spread and taking points with the home dog has value attached to it. Look for the backfield of Tyrone Owens, Zahneer Shuler, and Ahmari Davis, and Daevon Vigilant  to churn out yards and get us the cover. 

Note :the last time the Lobos played a team at home of Boise States calibre they hung with San Diego State losing by just one TD, so its not like they cannot be competitive, because they have proven they can.  Head coach Bob Davie’s tenure  is due to end. but Im betting he will have his troops primed to pull off an upset here in what will be their version of a bowl game. 

HC Harsin is 2-10 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 8 or more passing yards/att. as the coach of BOISE ST  NEW MEXICO is 11-2 ATS in home games off 3 straight losses against conference rivals and the football program is 40-20 ATS L/60 vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game.Davie is 18-8 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63 as the coach of NEW MEXICO.

Play on New Mexico to cover 

Houston gets to many accolades from the media , and are just not living up to expectations as this season progresses, something that has been a common theme with them over the last few seasons. They have a load of talent but game preparation and inconsistency remains a problem, as does a defence that has allowed an 500+ypg  and has also given up  2,049 yards in its last four games including 44 ppg. Meanwhile, Tulane has quietly  gotten better as this season, has progressed behind a hard nosed defence and an offence that has steadily improved over their L/4 trips to the gridiron. 

HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS  off 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 3 seasons and has failed to cover 3 of the L/4 meetings in this series. 

Tulane is 6-1 ATS L/7 as a 10 point or less underdog. 

CFB  team (HOUSTON) - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games are 12-39 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tulane to cover 

The Raiders looked horrendous last week in their loss,  34-3 vs the 49ers last week and  have lost four in a row and are tied with the New York Giants for the worst record in the NFL at 1-7. Meanwhile, the Chargers won last week, but looked a little pooched, and won 25-17 vs Seattle last week. Their numbers however, were not overwhelming. It must be noted that the chargers are just  0-10 ATS  as a favorite of more than three points coming off a game as a dog where they allowed at least 22 first downs  , and 0-7 ATS L/7 as a favorite off a game as a underdog when they had less than 28 minutes time of possession, which was the case last week.  The Raiders lost on the road to the Chargers earlier this season 26-10 but will be a much tougher out this time around at home. NFL team (OAKLAND) - revenging a road loss against opponent, off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite are 42-17 ATS L/35 seasons for a long erm 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Note: NFL  home Teams which are more than 7 point  dogs are actually long term good bets going   192-162-4 ATS . I know its hard to take the Raiders considering their form, but if you can just plug your nose and pull the trigger on this stinker, you can feel confident that we have an edge on the books. 

Play on the Oakland Raiders 

Falcons are playing better ball of late , but are just  0-8 ATS in its last eight games against AFC opposition. Also you can not escape the fact that the Browns have a game changing QB at the helm of their offence and looks to be getting more comfortable each time out.   Baker Mayfield. The No. 1 draft pick has started three games and has thrown for 1,768 yards and 10 touchdowns with seven interceptions. He's been sacked 22 times but rushed for 91 yards when scrambling. In last week's loss to Kansas City, Mayfield threw for 297 yards and two touchdowns. Mayfield helps his team get us the cover here. ATLANTA is 11-32 ATS  after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games .

Cleveland Browns to cover 

The Bengals are one of the most under rated teams in the NFL, and despite of the Saints getting all the accolades could easily be in a letdown spot after gruelling  back to back games  and wins against the Minnesota Vikings and the LA Rams and in a look ahead situation to the Eagles who are next on the agenda. Bengals are 8-1-1 SU and 10-0 ATS as home underdogs against NFC opponents and look like a viable bet here today. 

NEW ORLEANS is 8-20 ATS L/28 against AFC North division opponents.Cincinnati has covered 3 straight at home in this series and get the nod again taking points. 

The Bengals are 9-0-1 ATS L/10 at home off a win in which they were outgained by their opponent. The Bengals are 6-0 ATS L/6 when they are off three consecutive games with a positive DPA.

NFL Home teams vs. the money line (CINCINNATI) - mistake-free team (1.25 roles TO/game committed) against a team with 1.25  or less TO/game forced, after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better are 58-9 L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. 

The Titans are a methodical team, that is capable of keeping this score close enough to cover the number here vs Tom Brady and company. No, really , you might be laughing right about now, but the Titans have the better D, by 49 ypg, and must not be underestimated as TD underdog at home. The Titans have only been non competitive in one of their games this season, a 21-0 shutout vs Baltimore, but the wins and even the losses have all been 3 points or less including a impressive win vs the defending Super Champs the Philadelphia Eagles. It hard to bet against the Pats, but this is actually a good spot for the Titans. Note: The Titans are 7-0 ATS L/7 when they are at home between two road games. 

Play on Tennessee to cover 

Both California and USC have been inconsistent this season, but the Trojans from a head to head matchup perspective are the superior side according to my power ranking numbers and matchup well vs the Bears. I know Cal has covered 3 straight but they have also been outgunned in 3 of their L/4 overall. With both teams needing a win to get a Bowl invite, Im betting both will be primed to play but home field advantage will be the difference maker. 

The USC  Trojans  have owned this series vs California in the past and are 17-1 SU in their last 18 games at home and are 16-1 against. the Bears in their last 17 meetings overall . USC has won 14 straight  vs the Bears, and covered the this weak number in each of those tilts. 

CFB team (USC) - good rushing team (4.3 to 4.8 YPR) against an average defense (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) after 7+ games, after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game are 39-14 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on USC to cover 

LSU was manhandled by Alabama  last week 29-0 , and are now beat up and downtrodden after that very physical affair and I'm betting they will be in a huge letdown situation here this week on the road vs feisty Arkansas gridiron group. Energy levels will be low for the Tigers  , after their  SEC title hopes and most likely its CFP aspirations were  crushed and Arkansas will be ready to take advantage of the situation. Take the points

Arkansas has covered 4 of the L/5 here as DD home dogs vs LSU and are 8-3 ATS L/11 in this series overall. LSU has failed to cover 4 straight vs .400 or less SEC opposition. 

Play on Arkansas to cover 

Florida International was smashed last week by instate rivals Florida Atlantic by a 49-14 count, and  will be in a letdown situation , and may have some problems dusting off the brutality of that beating as they go on the road vs a team that played them tough last season (14-7).

UTSA might have a negative record but  are more than capable enough of covering and have had a propensity to keep their home games close as is evident by a -8 point differential this season .UTSA  L/9  home lined games over the last 2 seasons have seen a average 1.1 line differntial UTSA 22.9 OPP 21.8 .Overall UTSA L/20 line games have seen a -3.4 ppg line differntial UTSA 20.1 OPP 23.5.

UTSA to cover 

Auburn (6-3, 3-3)  enters this rivalry game with  Georgia with  a huge chip on their shoulders , and are also  motivated to get revenge for last year's loss to the Bulldogs in Mercedes-Benz Stadium . Head coachGus Malzahn. prior to his recent two game win streak has taken alot of heat from alumni and boosters, but has been golden for  his betting backers  going 15-1 SU and 13-2-1 ATS when coming off consecutive SUATS wins, including 13-0 SU and 11-1-1 ATS in conference games. Georgia after their huge win vs Kentucky last week, may have problems rising up with as much intensity this week, which gives credence to me backing the road dog here. 

GEORGIA is 8-24 ATS L/32 in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread.

CFB home team (GEORGIA) - after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game against opponent after gaining 2 or less rushing yards/attempt last game 5-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Auburn to cover 

We have value here with South Alabama as injured QB Evan Orth is expected to play. I expect the Warhawks despite of leading the West, wanting revenge for a loss in this series last season, could easily still be caught looking ahead to bigger fish with Louisiana and Arkansas State up next. The Warhawks weakness has been their pass defence, and could easily get torched by Orth this week who has a 65% passer conversion rate. 

Play on South Alabama to cover 

Kentucky was demolished last week by Georgia 34-17 and enter this road game against up trending Tennessee in a emotional letdown scenario. Believe it or not its not a good bounce back opportunity for the Wildcats as they are just 4-34 all time in this series and have lost their L/13 trips here. In Kentuckys last 4 trips to the gridiron they have averaged just 15 ppg and could easily find themselves up ended by a Volunteers side that upset Auburn as a road dog and lost by just a FG to South Carolina as road pups. Im betting that if Snell and company can  muster up enough energy to get the win here it won't come easily making Tennessee a viable home dog. 

Note: Kentucky has failed to cover 9 of their L/10 as favorites.

Play on Tennessee to cover 

The Gophers’ have played their best football at home this season as evident by their 4-1  home record  as opposed to 0-4 on the road this campaign.The Gophers biggest problems have come on defence but HC  P.J. Fleck fired his defensive coordinator and Im expecting things to turnaround in that department. Meanwhile, the Boilermakers after 3 hard fought battles against Ohio State, Michigan State and Iowa may come into this game pooched and over looking their lower trending opponent. Considering the Gophers are 8-1 ATS as  double-digit home dog Im expecting that taking the points proves golden.  Note: Purdues last 12 games played on turf has seen a 0.6 ppg average differential. 

Take the points with Minnesota to cover 

Old Dominion upset VTech earlier this seasons, and despite of stumbling since than are an underrated team, and have a Wide receiver  inTravis Fulgham,  that has been added to the watch list for the Biletnikoff Award last week and is a future NFL draft pick, and is going to be a key weapon here today against North Texas as the arm of  Blake LaRussa gets a work out. Meanwhile, on D, Old Dominion defensive end Oshane Ximines ( 14.5 tackles and 8.5 sacks) will make the North Texas offensive line work hard for room. Surprise surprise, Old Dominion gets us the cover. 

 NORTH TEXAS is 0-6 ATS  in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons.NORTH TEXAS is 4-18 ATS  in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 or more  yards/game. 

Play on Old Dominion to cover 

West Virginia  is off a huge emotional win vs the Texas Longhorns last week and  will be pooched and most probably hungover in more ways than one vs struggling  TCU. I know  the Froggies  Coach Gary Patterson’s has seen his talented up inconsistent team shoot themselves in the foot on numerous occasions this season, but this is a prime opportunity to get just a little bit of redemption so I expect the Horned Frogs to be sky high for this game, and will play loose as they have nothing to lose by not doing so here on the road .  TCU under Gary Patterson is 12-2 ATS as a double-digit dog, including 6-0 ATS from Game Ten out. West Virginia is also 1-5 ATS L/6 after playing Texas. 

W VIRGINIA is 0-8 ATS  after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.TCU is 13-4 ATS  in road games after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games.

CFB team (TCU) - after 5 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 36-10 L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on TCU to cover 

The Fresno State Bulldogs  are an explosive team that look to be on a mission as they have won 18 of their L/23 games and are a bankroll expanding  19-3 ATS in all games L/21 lines games , including 13-1 ATS in conference games and a perfect 8-0 ATS on the road . Meanwhile, despite of all the accolades Boise State has gotten from the media, they are no longer a blue carpet  dominant team, and have only covered 1 of their 7 vs visiting Mountain West teams with a .700 or better record. The Broncos also are not playing all that well, and look to be at a disadvantage cs aside that is out gaining their opposition by an average of 122 ypg since early September.Fresno State is 14-0 ATS in its last fourteen games versus Mountain West Conference opposition with a .500 record or better and get the nod again this Friday night behind a D, that has allowed a total of 36 points in conference games this season.

Play on Fresno State to cover 

  Northern Illinois just clinched a bowl berth with last week’s 36-26 victory vs Akron  and look ripe to be in a letdown situation this week vs an explosive Toledo team that has averaged 41 ppg this season. The sled dogs own a tremendous defence, but the Rockets can score against the best of teams, which is going to be a problem for the home team tonight as they have only been able to muster 19.2 ppg on the season, behind an offense that can only be described as methodical and inconsistent. Toledo has won the 2 most recent meetings in this series, and are my choice to cover here tonight. The visitor in this series has only failed to cover one of the L/7 confrontations. Toledo is also 10-2 ATS L/12 weekday games.

(Weather conditions during the day 40F, and 28 at night, some wind gusts but nothing series, so no advantage here for N.Illinois as they hoped for inclement weather that would slow down the Toledo attack)

TOLEDO is 22-7 ATS off a home blowout win by 28 points or more which happened last time out in a 45-13 win vs Ball State. 

CFB Road underdogs (TOLEDO) - good rushing team (190 to 230 RY/game) against an average rushing team (140-190 RY/game) are a long term good bet as they are 124-66 ATS L/10 seasons for a 65% conversion rate on the blind for bettors.

Play on Toledo to cover 

The Rams fell behind last week vs Packers but showed us all  what they were made of by coming back and winning that game and will now be primed to pull an upset of their own, against what Im betting will be a New Orleans side, in a letdown spot after getting revenge on the Vikings for last years playoff elimination. Despite of  their victory last week they were out yarded 423-260 and looked pooched at some points during that game. From a long term betting perspective  NFL sides that won their L/game by more than a TD l  but were out gained by at least 115 yards are just 50-76-1 ATS for a go against 60% conversion rate for bettors.Until proven wrong Im betting that New Orleans is a little over rated and the Rams a team that must be considered a Super Bowl contender are a great value play taking points. 

NEW ORLEANS is 19-35 ATS in home games after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992

 Note:8-0 NFL teams  like the Rams in Game Nine of the season are 17-2 SU since 1980,  with none of them getting underdog lines. 

Play on the LA Rams to cover 

The Jets enter this game with revenge on board for a  20-12  loss to the Dolphins in week 2 as a three-point home dog. But  NY lately has been very good to bettors in revenge mode as   they cashed 7 straight ATS on a natural surface when they are playing a divisional opponent that they lost to earlier in the season. To put it bluntly , I also don't trust the Fins as home favs against 90% of the teams in this league, and the way their defence is playing I feel they are fade material in this spot. Note: MIAMI is 2-10 ATS  after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons and is 7-24 ATS L/31 after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games.The Jets have covered 16 of their L/21 visits to South Florida and get the nod again.

Dolphins are  also a bankroll dumping 0-15 ATS  as a home favorite off a loss when their opponent is playing their second straight road game. The Dolphins are 0-16 ATS L/15 seasons   as a home favorite coming off a game where they failed to cover by at least seven points.

Play on the NY Jets to cover 

The Steelers and Ravens have been going in opposite directions since they met Sept. 30 at Heinz Field. The Ravens beat the Steelers 26-14 and asserted themselves as early favorites to win the AFC North.

The Steelers started slowly but they have really picked things up lately, and have won and covered three straight games and lookalike strong underdogs here this Sunday vs a Baltimore team that does not look as stout as they did earlier this season . With the Steelers in revenge mode for the loss they suffered to the Ravens when they played earlier this season, you can bet they will have their engines revel and ready to return the favour here today. Look for the Steelers to make the Baltimore offense one dimensional as they control a running attack that is ranked 24th in the NFL with 96.6 yards per game. On the flip side I expect Big Ben Rothlisberger to take some queues from QB Cam Newton of Carolina who completed 21 of 29 passes for 219 yards with two touchdowns last week in a 36-21 beatdown of the Ravens which Im betting offered up some answers about what could be a regressing secondary. 

The Steelers are 7-0 ATS L/7 as a road dog when they are off three consecutive wins where they coveredThe Steelers are 6-0 ATS L/6 on the road when they are playing a team they lost to as a favorite earlier in the season.The Ravens are 0-9-1 ATS as a home favorite after a game as a road favorite in which they had at least two turnovers. 

NFLeams where the line is +3 to -3 (BALTIMORE) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, in conference games. are 14-40 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Pitt Steelers to cover

BYU plays a methodical conservative brand of football, which was evident in a 7-6 loss to N.Illinois last week, a MAC team that plays a similar type of football. Now this week on the Blue Carpet of Boise State I expect the rip van winkle gridiron crew to be the Mormons approach to this game as they look to slow this tilt down to a snails pace which Im betting will help them stay competitive vs the Broncos.  Note: BYU is 20-2-2 ATS L/24 games as road dogs. While Boise State is 0-6 ATS L/6 at home as favorite of 10 to 14.5 points. BYU has covered 3 of the L/4 meetings here and get the nod again in this spot play. 

Play on BYU to cover 

Neither of these teams is living up to their preseason Billings, but what stands out when Washington hosts Stanford today is  Cards HC David Shaws 13-4 ATS record as a dog, including 5-0 ATS when's is getting 9 or more points. Stanford also owns a 15-1 ATS record as visitors after allowing 40-plus points, which happened last time out. Last season Stanford took out the Huskies at home for their 10 win in the L/14 in this series, and right now the way the Huskies are playing revenge will not be enough to get them the payback they want. 

Stanford is 12-0 SU/ 11-0-1 ATS L/5 seasons coming off a loss as a favorite. ( Last week Stanford lost 41-28 heartbreaker to a very good Washington State team)

STANFORD is 8-1 ATS  versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9  or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons.STANFORD is 19-4 ATS  in road games after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored since 1992.

WASHINGTON is 2-11 ATS after allowing 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games.

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (WASHINGTON) - off an upset loss as a road favorite of 7 or more, in weeks 10 through 13 are 9-33 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Stanford Cardinal to cover 

Alabama is third in rushing offense and fourth in rushing defense. LSU, which has played a tougher schedule so far, is sixth and seventh in those categories. Im not disputing how great a football program that Alabama has , I'm just looking at value associated with this line as compared to how both teams have looked this season, and LSUs big time home advantage from a historical viewpoint. Hey guys don't me wrong its always tough betting against BAMA, but you have to continue to grab the edges when you can and keep your head up no matter what because those edges make for long term profits! The Tides Tagovailoa looks like a once in a generation type QB in his current form, but he's yet to have to consistently take on real world competition like he will today. With hat said, Ill grab the points here with the two TD+ home dog.

LSU is 10-0 ATS  vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons.LSU is 8-0 ATS  vs. excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons.LSU is 6-0 ATS  in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

LSU in their L/64 home games dating back 10 seasons have lost only 7 times straight up with only one loss coming by more than 10 points. 

CFB Home underdogs of 14.5 or more points (LSU) - off 2 straight wins against conference rivals, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 24-3 ATS L/27 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on LSU to cover 

This is a bad scheduling spot for Miss State as they are off a big win vs Texas A&M last week, and will now be in a letdown spot with a look ahead game against Alabama in their next game. Meanwhile,  LA Tech are no pushovers, and have revenge on board for getting clobbered last year at home by the Rebels. It must be noted that MSU  has failed to cover 16 of their L/21 non-conference of 20 or more fav points while, LA Tech HC  Skip Holtz is   16-3 ATS as a road dog  when coming off an underdog situation like he faced last week at Florida Atlantic and  perfect 5-0 ATS when coming off a SU underdog victory which he achieved in that above mentioned game.LOUISIANA TECH is also 6-0 ATS in road games after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.

CFB road team (LOUISIANA TECH) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 49 or more points total in their last seven games are 33-9 ATS L/27 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on LA Tech to cover 

Tennessee may not be back to their glory years just yet, but Im betting they will be primed and ready to take their frustrations out on a lower tier Charlotte program that is playing with a backup QB . The Vols won't rest players , and they won't take their foot of the pedal as they need  to continue to improve and show their loyal fans that their on their way back to prominence. Search and destroy mission on Saturdays agenda for the Volunteers. 

CFB Road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (CHARLOTTE) - off an extremely close win by 3 points or less over a conference rival, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 3-24 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tennessee to cover 

Projected score: Tennessee  44 Charlotte 9

After being beat up on an embarrassed last week by Clemson, the Seminoles will be primed for a better showing vs another team (NC State) that was smashed by Clemson and has now  lost back-to-back games and dropped out of the Associated Press poll  .First-year Seminoles coach Willie Taggart said Monday he thought some of his players quit and that his staff needed "to find the winners" on the team. That was a punishing statement that was made in the media, and now we will see what his team is made of this week. Im betting these kids stand tall this Saturday and give a reeling NC State team a run for their money. 

Florida State is 10-0 ATS (15.8 ppg) 9-1 SU since Dec 30, 1983 coming off a loss where they allowed at least 42 points , with the lone loss coming by 7 points. FSU is also 16-2 SU off a loss of 20 or points dating back to 1983 and a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS if that team is .700 or above. 

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NC STATE) - excellent offensive team (440  or more YPG) against an average offensive team (330-390 YPG) after 7+ games, after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game. are 5-25 ATS L/10 seasons  for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Florida State to cover 

The last time West Virginia played Texas star QB Will Grier left the game with a hand injury and did not make it past the first quarter.  It was bitter sweet occurrence as Texas ended up clinching bowl eligibility in the process on West Virginia's home field. Now payback is on the agenda this week for the Mountaineers .Quote:"This one is one we've been looking forward to for a while," West Virginia coach Dana Holgorsen said. "It didn't quite end the way we wanted it to last year, and we haven't forgotten about that." END QUOTE. WVU has won three of the four previous meetings played in Austin, including a 24-20 win in 2016 and get the nod again. 

West Virginia is 7-2 ATS L/9 on the road in Big 12 action as TD or less dogs.

CFB Road underdogs (W VIRGINIA) - excellent offensive team (440  or more YPG) against a good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG), after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game are 31-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

Recent wins and covers vs Syracuse, and Duke and a closely contested battle vs Notre Dame have shown me that Pittsburgh is up trending in a hurry and pose a threat to a very good  but over rated Virginia team. Pittsburgh has won and covered the last two meetings in this series, and are live dogs again,  and get my support here in this spot getting points. 

The Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last six conference games and 7-2 ATS versus a team with a winning record.

VIRGINIA is 14-28 ATS  after having won 4 out of their last 5 games since 1992. 

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PITTSBURGH) - with a terrible defense - allowing 6.1 or more yards/play, after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 30-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB road team (PITTSBURGH) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP), after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 34-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Pittsburgh to cover 

Im betting UCF will have their hands full with a very physical Temple team, and their perfect 7-0 record could be in jeopardy. Temples two losses this season came by 10 points to BC and 7 to Buffalo U. My power rankings suggest that UCF should only be a 7 to 8 point favorite here and that we have value with Temple to cover this number.

TEMPLE is 10-1 ATS versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 230 or more  rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons.TEMPLE is 13-2 ATS  in road games over the last 3 seasonsTEMPLE is 9-0 ATS after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers over the last 3 seasons.

CFB Home favorites (UCF) - after going under the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 47-88 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Temple to cover 

Last week Western Michigan had their 6 game win streak abruptly come to an end, as a frustrated and angry Toledo team off blowing a late lead to Buffalo U the prior week came in with a full head of steam and upset the Broncos. I also believe Western Michigan was not respecting their opponents enough, and the end result was ugly. Now in redemption mode, Im betting the Broncos come out here ready to resume  their previous top tier play vs a Ohio Bobcats team that can score , but that has a lot of defensive deficiencies, despite of garnering some positive D stats vs their last two lowly opponents, Ball St and Bowling Green. I know Ohio destroyed a injury riddled Ball State last week, but the hosts are a much better group and healthier  team than Ball State and will give Ohio more then they can handle. 

I am also not worried who starts under center for Western Michigan  as   both are terrific Qbs.  Note: The Broncos have done well vs struggling secondaries as is evident by  11-2 ATS L/13 record vs. struggling passing defenses - allowing 275 or more passing yards/game .

Bobcats are 0-3 ATS L/3 in the first of two consecutive road tilts. OHIO U is 2-10 ATS  after scoring 50 points or more last game since 1992 and is  2-11 ATS  in road games off 2 consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals.W MICHIGAN in their L/26 games  as a home underdog have seen a average point differential of 26.8 to 24.5 favouring the Broncos.

Play on Western Michigan to cover 

The Buffalo Bulls own a balanced offence behind a future NFL QB 6'7 Tyree Jackson . The Bulls have averaged  235.0 yards passing and 176.3 on the ground. On the other side of the ball, Buffalo leads the MAC in scoring and total defense. I look for them to primed tonight to stop Miami O cold on their own home field and grab a commanding lead in the race for MAC East title. Buffalo also has the motivation of revenge on their sides, as Miami O beat them last season 24-14 at home as 3 point chalk. 

BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS  in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

The favorite has won 8 of the L/10 meetings. 

Buffalo to cover 

I was kind of surprised to see the Vikings as a home underdog. I truly believe no matter what Drew Bree's is doing of late, I just don't see the Saints being a pickem on the road from a matchup perspective vs a Minnesota team that  in my opinion has the superior talent and cohesiveness. Winning two games in a row on the road like New Orleans will attempt to do is a difficult thing, and if it were not for the huge horse shoe they have wedged up their proverbial yahoos, they might of lost last week, as the Ravens missed the opportunity to take a game to OT,  when their usually reliable stud kicker missed an extra point at the end of the game. Wow. Any how, here we are , and the lines makers have decided while factoring in the revenge play off angle that the Saints should be a favorite. I disagree and will take a contrarian stance and back the home side to come out of this with a win and cover. The both times the Viking splayed the Saints last year they were able to expose their defensive weaknesses' and don't be surprised if they do it again. NEW ORLEANS is 8-20 ATS off an extremely close road win by 3 points or less since 1992.MINNESOTA is 11-3 ATS  in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Play on the Minnesota Vikings to cover 

Super star QB Aaron Rogers and the Green Bay offense have the guns to score with the Rams making them viable underdogs this spot vs what is arguably an explosive team the LA Rams. 

GREEN BAY is 16-6 ATS  in road games after playing on Monday night football since 1992 and 39-23 ATS against NFC West division opponents since 1992. LA RAMS are 4-17 SU and 5-15-1 ATS the last 21 vs NFC North teams.

NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (GREEN BAY) - good passing team - with a completion pct of 60% or better, after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 3 straight games are 36-15 L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Green Bay Packers to cover

Bill Carrol has his Seattle Seahawks playing much better than the pundits expected, thanks to a rejuvenated looking defence. On oFfence QB Wilson is also  a top tier money maker for his backers going 11-1-1 ATS in his NFL career taking points against opp coming off consecutive victories like the Lions are.

DETROIT is 4-13 ATS off a double digit road win which was the case a DD victory vs the Miami Dolphins.Detroit is  also 0-13-1 ATS with a .500 or better record when coming off a double-digit win and taking on  an opponent coming off a victory. 

NFL Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DETROIT) - in a game involving two average teams (within +/- 40 YPG of their opponents), after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game are 17-43 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Seattle Seahawks to cover 

The defending Super Bowl champions are off a loss and own a 3-4 record on the season but are a good bet to bounce back here this week ,  as defending Super bowl Champs are  100-50 SU and 81-65-4 ATS since 1980 off a SU loss as a favorite. Needless to say the Eagles have to now put the pedal to the metal and right their ship quickly , and Im expecting to do so vs a team that is struggling even more then them the Jacksonville Jaguars who have lost three straight.With RB Leonard Fournette (hamstring) likely to miss another game, Im betting QB Bortles won't have the support he needs to be competitive this week on this international stage in London ,England. 

JACKSONVILLE is 0-6 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse over the last 3 seasons which happened in their 20-7 loss vs the Texans last week.The Jaguars are  also 0-11 /SU ATS when the line is within a touch down of pick and they are off a game as a chalk in which they had less than 280 passing yards and at least two turnovers with he average margin of defeat coming by two TDs.

Play on the Philadelphia Eagles to cover 

San Diego State is a very viable short favorite here vs a Nevada team on tired  jet lagged legs and in a letdown situation after a win at Hawaii last week. I know the Aztecs did not look very awake themselves last week in a victory vs lowly San Jose State ( 16-13) but now I expect the alarm clock will go off early and they will be ready to respond in a big way here vs a side they have dominated of late winning 7 of the L/8 meetings . Note: Nevada is 0-7 ATS L/7 vs .700 or better opposition. 

SAN DIEGO ST is 6-0 ATS  in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons

The San Diego State Aztecs are 23-0 SU L/23 vs  .500 or less conference opponents since 2014.

CFB Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEVADA) - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are just 23-55 ATS L/10 seasons for go against 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on San Diego State to cover 

Tulane since they upset and  beat Memphis seem totally deflated. The Wave defence has been particularly bad,  ranking 103rd in total yards allowed with 433.1 yards per game. Meanwhile, despite of failing to notch wins, Tulsa from time to time has looked like a upper echelon side, losing by 1 points to USF, and  played Texas tough losing a by a 28-21 count. These teams just can't seem to get over the hump and both are desperate for wins, but Im betting home field advantage will be the difference maker today. Tulsa is a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS L/6 meetings here at home in this series and has big time revenge on board for ugly 62-28 loss at Tulane last season.

CFB road team vs. the money line (TULANE) - off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite of 6 or more, a struggling  team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 6-36 SU L/10 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Tulsa to cover 

The Tigers (4-3, 0-3 SEC) are the best unranked team in the nation in my humble opinion and are explosive behind the league's No. 3 passing attack with quarterback Drew Lock  the key production manufacturer  and ranks third in the conference as a  passer.Lock's passing total of 1,979 yards ranks behind only Jordan Ta'amu (2,622 yards) of Ole Miss and Alabama's Tua Tagoavailoa (2,066) among SEC's passers.Missouri is coming off a huge 65-33 win over Memphis in which Lock passed for 373 yards and four touchdowns and have momentum entering this tilt vs Kentucky. 

Meanwhile, Kentucky behind future NFL RB Snell, are a run first team, but Im betting they will not be as productive as usual, vs the Tigers  No. 35 ranked  rush defense as they hold opponents to just over 131 yards a game. Kentucky has a fine D, but Missouri can light it up against the best of defenses, while their own D can stop the run and have given up most of their yards through the air, which wont matter vs a Kentucky team that is ranked 127th in the nation in passing yards. 

KENTUCKY is 0-7 ATS  after having won 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.MISSOURI is 6-0 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 season.

Play on Missouri to cover 

South Florida is a explosive team that averages 35.6 ppg on offence and ranked 11th nationally enters this game undefeated on the season, and look like a viable underdog road option in this spot. I know the football media pundits are heaping  accolades  on the Houston Cougars and their 3rd ranked offence , but Im not sold on them mostly because of their horrendous D, that is ranked a lowly 117th in the nation. Houston upset S.Florida last season as 10 point road dogs, and now payback is at hand. Note: Houston has failed to cover 9 of their L/10 vs a side with conference revenge. 

S.Florida continues to win but have failed to cover two straight and have failed to cover. 4 of their L/5 mostly because of hefty lines, but it must be note that Strong is 12-1 ATS  in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread in all games he has coached since 1992. Strong is also 10-1 ATS  in road games after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games in all games he has coached since 1992. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (S FLORIDA) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP), after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 37-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (S FLORIDA) - after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games are 50-15 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB road team vs. the money line (S FLORIDA) - after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 3 straight games against opponent after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are 25-3 SU L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

CFBA home team vs. the money line (HOUSTON) - in a game involving two excellent rushing teams (4.8 YPR or more ) after 7+ games, after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are 9-27 SU L/26 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play o South Florida to cover 

Middle Tennessee State is a team that is getting to much respect here based on past season of upper echelon work, but this season, they are being out gained by FBS opposition by 85 yards a game. Meanwhile, Old Dominion finally woke up from their Virginia Tech upset handover last week to notch a upset win on the road vs Western Kentucky. Now that Old Dominion is wide awake Ill back them to being home the cash here as home dogs in this spot vs a over rated Blue raiders side living on past accolades. Note: Middle Tennessee is 0-4 L/4 as a road fav and have failed to cover 6 of their L/7 overall in that role. If the Raiders win today it wont come without Old Dominion putting up a fight. With that said take the points. 

CFB road team vs. the money line (MIDDLE TENN ST) - poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR) against a terrible rushing defense (4.8 YPRor more ) after 7+ games are 4-22 SU L/5 seasons for a 85%  go against conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Old Dominion to cover 

Penn State has had some ups and downs this season, but this still a very strong team, with a long standing winning football program. Recently Penn State has been dominant in situations like this as they are  11-0 /SU ATS covering by more than 18.82 ppg as a favorite coming off a win where they failed to cover (33-28 uglifest vs Indiana last week) with the smallest margin of victory coming by 10 points and the average margin score differential clicking in at Penn State 41.7 Opp 6.7 ppg. Nine of those 11 games saw their opposition score 7 or less points in a game.  The L/4 games dating back to the 2017 season, have seen Penn State outscore their opposition 218-23. Iowa has a fine team, and rank high in my power rankings, but the Nittany Lions have proven ferocious under the above mentioned perimeters, and are extremely motivated to prove their detractors wrong behind the arm and legs  QB star McSorley who completed 42 of 66 passes for 524 yards with three touchdowns and an interception and has added 31 carries for 101 yards and another score against Iowa in his career. In 2016 when Iowa visited Penn State the huge beatdown took place by a 41-14 count. Can it happen again, maybe maybe not, but key here is we get the cover.  By the way yes Iowa has won 3 straight, conference games in impressive fashion, but Maryland , Minnesota, Indiana are hardly marquee wins so lets not get carried away with the Hawkeyes potential just yet. 

PENN ST is 16-1 ATS off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons and is 8-0 ATS  off a road win over the last 3 seasons. 

Play on Penn State to cover 

Both these teams Maryland and Illinois give up lots of yards on the ground and both have proven they can run the ball. Both will use their success on the ground to take advantage of each sides weaknesses. Look for this tilt to be a slow guiding affair with taking  the points ending up being golden.Illinois’ rushing attack has 200-plus yards in six of seven games and Im betting MJ Rivers who is expected to start to get more playing time starting this week  give the Illini a better passing attack which will make them competitive despite of their nasty defence. 

CFB  team (ILLINOIS) - average offensive team (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) against a good defense (4.2 to 4.8 YPP) after 7+ games, after being outgained by 175 or more total yds 2 consecutive games are 26-6 ATS L/27 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB home team SU (MARYLAND) - in a game involving two excellent rushing teams (4.8  or more YPR) after 7+ games, after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are 9-27 SU L/27 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate.

Play on Illinois to cover 

The Jayhawks have not had a to success over the last few years, but they are playing better this season and are by far more competitive despite of their negative won loss record.The Jayhawks are 4-2-1 ATS in their last seven contests as double-digit home dogs and look like viable picks here today vs a TCU team that struggles to score and is in an emotional letdown state after being manhandled in a DD loss to Oklahoma last week.. Also with anew offensive cooridnator and guaranteed starter at QB in Peyton Bender I look for the Jayhawks to put some points up on the board and actually cover this game.TCU is 4-13 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons.TCU is 7-18 ATS  as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

CFB A home team vs. the money line (KANSAS) - off 3 straight losses against conference rivals, with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent are 42-20 L/10 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Kansas to cover 

CONNECTICUT is 1-10 ATS in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

CFB  home team (CONNECTICUT) - good rushing team - averaging 4.75 or more rushing yards/carry, after allowing 6.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 4-25 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Umass to cover 

Army is the real deal, behind top tier HC Monken and  even with starting QB Kelvin Hopkins out last week with an injury they took out a pretty good Miami O side 31-30 in OT. Now against another MAC team E.Michigan, I like their chances in what the lines makers expect will be a close game even if Hopkins is out again, as Sophomore Cam Thomas is more than able to guide this over powering West Point  running attack . It must be noted that the  Black Knights own the nation’s 2nd ranked ground attack averaging (318 YPG) and have a big time edge vs the Eagles’  key weakness which is their 111th ranked rush defense (216 YPG) .

ARMY is 6-0 ATS in road games after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game over the last 2 seasons.

CFB home team (E MICHIGAN) - after allowing 225 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games against opponent after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games are 3-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a 89% go against conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB favorites (ARMY) - team outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG against a team who is outrushed by 50+ YPG, after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards in 3 straight games are 28-5 L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Army to cover 

Since their loss to North Texas this rebuilding Arkansas football program has slowly become more competitive. This group is very closely knit, and the entire state of Arkansas is behind them here this week, in what is a winnable game, especially with QB Ty Storey expected back under centre. The Razorbacks have covered 4 straight for their backers, and once again look like a solid proposition here on their own field to cash a ticket for their supporters vs a Vanderbilt team that is last in the nation in red zone conversion rate. Vanderbilt is also s ugly 2-16 ATS L/18 in SEC road games.

Mason is 0-7 ATS  vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return as the coach of VANDERBILT. 

Play on Arkansas to cover

 Louisville enters this game struggling mightily averaging just  20.4 points per game, while allowing 33.4 per game on defense and allowing opposition offences to roll over them and gain an average 416.1 yards of total per game.  I know Wake Forest is not much better defensively, but they can score more consistently and that will be the difference maker this eek, in a game that the Daemon Deacons have the ability to win straight up. 

LOUISVILLE is 0-6 ATS  versus good rushing teams - averaging 200 or more  rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons.

WAKE FOREST is 22-9 ATS in road games after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games.

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LOUISVILLE) - with a terrible rushing D - allowing 225 or more rushing yards/game, after gaining 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are just 5-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on Wake Forest to cover 

Utes, enter this game on fire as they are on a 3-0  run and scoring 40 or more points in each of those contests. I don't  know where this offensive explosion has come from, but I'm betting after the emotion involved in putting the pedal to the metal in 4 straight games starting with Washington State, which was their only loss, will now see them in a  emotional letdown down spot that could easily mute their output and attack, especially after mounting that massive comeback vs uSC last week. I know Chip Kelleys UCLA may not inspire bettors, but they are getting better, and have won two straight games and have the talent base to make  a game of this. 

UCLA is 14-3 ATS L/17 at home as a 6 point dog or more.  

CFB Road favorites (UTAH) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) after 7+ games, after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 3-24 ATS L/27 seasons for a 86%  go against conversion rate.

Play on UCLA to cover 

This tilt between Minnesota and Indiana will settle which  one of these teams will get a lower tier Bowl invite. Both these teams enter this game expected to play with back up QBs. But I like PJ Fleck at home, and dislike Indiana's consistent inability to find any kind of groove since starting their season 3-0. They did play Penn State tough last week, losing by just 5 points and actually out gaining the Lions, but it must be noted that INDIANA is 8-38 ATS  after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game .

Also the Hoosiers inconsistent attack has even had difficulties vs teams with porous defences . Note:INDIANA is 0-8 ATS  vs. struggling passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 3 seasons. 

  INDIANA is 2-9 ATS  when the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last 2 seasons. Minnesota is 6-1 ATS L/7 meetings overall. 

Play on Minnesota to cover 

Mimai Fl despite of their talent just can't seem to get over the hump. Last season they failed down the stretch and now in their last game lost to Virginia 16-13 , behind a duo of QBs that just don't have a lot of flow right now, and its rubbing off on the team as a whole. I don't know if its because of the Canes tough training/practices or what it is , but this team looks pooched for the 2nd straight season. As a matter of fact a disturbing trend seems to be telling a repeat story, as Richt is 2-9 ATS L/11  in October games as the coach of MIAMI. 

Richt is  also 0-6 ATS L/6 in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of MIAMI and is 8-21 ATS  after scoring 14 points or less last game in all games he has coached since 1992 

Meanwhile,BOSTON COLLEGE is 9-1 ATS  against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons and is 7-0 ATS after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons and is 6-0 ATS in October games over the last 2 seasons.

Im betting Boston College has a better chance to win  then the public has decided, as the opening line was BC -1, and is now at 3.5. Im betting the lines makers were right in their opening assessments and if Im wrong, Im still betting the Eagles make a game of this  and get us a cover. 

Play on Boston College to cover 

Florida Atlantic enters this game as a wobbly home favorite, vs a LA Tech team that could easily upset them SU here tonight. Florida Atlantics HC Lane Kiffin has been making some questionable decisions this season, that have not paid dividends, and the team as a whole just don't look cohesive especially on defence and have been outscored 90-35 in the fourth quarter this season . Yes, the Owls do have a top tier QB in Chris Robison but he was hobbled last game, and if he plays will be less than 100% this week and on defence are still trying to mask the fact they are playing without their all time leading tackler, LB Azeez Al-Shaair, who is injured. Florida Atlantic smashed Louisiana Tech last season the road by a , 48-23 count and now big time ugly revenge is on board. 

FLA ATLANTIC is 2-12 ATS  in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.Holtz is 12-3 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less in all games he has coached since 1992.LOUISIANA TECH is 6-0 ATS  in road games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. Holtz is a perfect 6-0 ATS as road dog in his career vs a sub .500 opponent like FAU. 

CFBroad team vs. the money line (LOUISIANA TECH) - a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (34 PPG or more), after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 37-6 L/27 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on LA Tech to cover 

These two teams are vying for first place in the Sunbelt eastern division. Appalachian State has  for a long time had a respected football program, and right now their on the fast track for a decent bowl invitation. Meanwhile, Georgia Southern despite of not getting the same accolades is no pushover and just like their opponents only have one loss on the season.  Georgia Southern lost to power house Alabama, and Appalachian State to Penn State in OT. 

What Im betting happens tonight, is that Georgia Southern will use their No. 5 overall  ground game that cranks out 276 RYPG average to hammer away all night on App States defense , while the absence of  the Mountaineers top tier  RB Jason Moore will be felt as they won't be able to respond with the same type of option attack. I don't know if Georgia Southern can come out of this with a win, but they will make a game of it here on their own home turf. Thus making getting points golden opportunity to cash a ticket.Lunsford is a perfect  6-0 ATS in games played on a grass field as the coach of GA SOUTHERN. 

Play on Georgia Southern to cover 

Both these teams are in 3rd place in their MAC divisions, but Ohio according to my rankings is the much better team, especially here on their own home field where they have averaged 48.3 ppg behind an explosive offense. Meanwhile, Ball State is scoring an average of just 16.7 ppg on the road and just don't have the guns to compete here 9 out of 10 times. With that said,  those look like viable odds for me to sink my teeth into . Also Ball State D is going down hill fast as they have allowed seasons highs in yards allowed in 4 of their L/5 overall, not a good omen coming in against this type of opponent.Neu is 0-6 ATS  after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games as the coach of BALL ST ( Ball State 15.7 Opp 41.7) I know the line looks like a hook attempt here by the lines makers, but their value right uo and into the 13.5 point range according to my projections so I feel confident of laying odd numbered lumber here. 

Play on Ohio to cover 

The 1-5  New York Giants enter this Monday night game reeling  have lost three games in a row, giving up more than 30 points in all three and offer up an opportunity for the Falcons to notch their second win in a row . During the Gmens  three-game losing streak, Giants quarterback Eli Manning has as many interceptions as touchdown passes, recording three of each. He has been sacked 20 times this season. Meanwhile, Atlanta QB Ryan is picking up the pace of late, as is evident by  his 354 passing yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions against Tampa Bay, which has increased his total to 12 touchdown passes with no picks over the past four games. He must be licking his chops anticipation of facing a team that has only 7 sacks on the season ranking last in the league. Look for Ryan and star Wide Receiver Julio Jones to hookup for mucho yards and TDs this week on their way to a what Im betting will be a convincing win and  cover . 

NY GIANTS are 3-11 ATS in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

The Giants are 0-9 /SU ATS failing to cover by an average of more than 10 ppg as a non-divisional dog on Monday night.

NFL Road teams vs. the money line (NY GIANTS) - off a home blowout loss by 21 points or more against opponent off a home win are 5-51 SU L/35 seasons with a average point differential of 9.9 ppg clicking in on the scoreboard.

Play on the Atlanta Falcons to cover 

 This is a long time rivalry that has seem the 49ers cash 5 straight times. I know the Rams are the better overall team, but Im expecting this to be a lot closer than the lines makers estimate according to my own head to head power ranking stats. It must be noted that perfect 6-0 NFL chalk like the LA Rams  are 1-7 ATS in Game Seven of the season over the last nine campaigns.

The Rams are 0-8 ATS  off a game as a favorite in which they had at least 3 more penalties than their season-to-date average which happened last week.

LA RAMS is 1-9 ATS L/10 in road games after gaining 200 or more rushing yards last game .

The Rams are 0-6 ATS  on the road facing an opponent that is off two con-secutive losses like SF. 

Play on the SF 49ers to cover 

New Orleans explosive offence will Im betting not be so explosive this week against a staunch Baltimore D off a shutout last time out vs the Tennessee Titans by a 21-0 count. In fact the Ravens D has  allowed a total of 40 points in their L/4 games (10 ppg). Ravens are 5-1 SU/ATS L/5 meetings.

NEW ORLEANS is 7-20 ATS L/27 against AFC North division opponents.NEW ORLEANS is 4-15 ATS  in road games after scoring 25 points or more in 3 straight games since 1992. HC Payton Payton is 3-12 ATS  in road games after scoring 25 points or more in 3 straight games and is 2-9 ATS  in road games after having won 4 out of their last 5 games. 

NFL Home teams vs. the money line (BALTIMORE) - with a good scoring defense - allowing 17 or less points/game, after allowing 17 points or less in 4 straight games are 24-1 SU with the average point differential of 9.4 ppg clicking in on the scoreboard. 

NFL Road underdogs or pick (NEW ORLEANS) - after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread, in the first half of the season are 8-30 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on the Baltimore Ravens to cover 

The much improved Chicago Bears go against a New England Pats team that could find themselves in an emotional letdown spot after a behemoth back forth battle  with the KC Chiefs last Sunday night that saw them win on a late FG 43-40.

I know Tom Brady and company are explosive offensively but the Bears have held opponents to 19.2 ppg this season and must be respected as home dogs in their current form. I know the Bears last time out,  but it must be noted that Chicago is  11-2 ATS at home against AFC East opposition  coming off a victory, including 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS when the Bears are coming off a loss. 

Today Im betting the difference maker will come via the Bears ground attack that averaged 4.4 ypc vs a shaky Pats D, that is allowing 4.5 ypc. 

CHICAGO is 9-1 ATS as a home underdog over the last 3 seasons.CHICAGO is 6-0 ATS in home games in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

NFL Underdogs or pick (CHICAGO) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 42-17 ATS L/10 seasons for a 75% for conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Chicago Bears to cover 

The Panthers are off a dismal game last time out vs the Redskins, but they have shown a lot of inconsistencies over the last couple of seasons despite of being a talented group, and now Im betting they rebound. It must be noted Carolina is a perfect  10-0 ATS since Ron Rivera became their head coach in 2011 as a dog off a SU and ATS loss as a visitor, covering by an average of 16  ppg and 21-3 ATS overall off a road loss. Also in that last game, they got away from their strength which is the run game.  But the Panthers have proven  resilient after those types of off efforts going a bankroll expanding 15-0 ATS on a natural surface off away loss when  their ground attack gained less  than 185 yards and they are averaging more than 4.35 yards per rush season-to-date. From. A league wide data base NFL Underdogs or pick (CAROLINA) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 36-12 ATS in their followup rebound since 1983.

Meanwhile, the Eagles despite of winning and playing better of late, are a team that has shown a propensity to fail against teams like Carolina who are struggling defensively at least from a ATS perspective, as they 0-8 ATS  versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 6 or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Carolina to cover 

The Dolphins, who are 4-2 and are tied with the New England Patriots for the top spot in the AFC East, will be hosting a Lions defense that has given up an average of 27.4 points per game, which ranks 25th in the NFL. Which in my humble betting opinion does not make the Lions very reliable road favs in this spot according to statistical algorithms. The key Defensive lapses have come against opposition ground attacks, as the Lions rank 30th against the run, giving up 145.8 yards per game and 5.3 yards per carry. This Im betting favours Fins running backs Frank Gore and Kenyan Drake who are proving them selves viable cogs in thisDolphin offensive scheme. I know super millionaire QB Matt Stafford is a t the helm of a offence that scores bunches, but Miami is efficient  in the red zone and has stopped six of 11 third- or fourth-and-1 runs and could easily stop the Lions on key situations as they game progresses and making them a strong choice getting points as home dogs.

MIAMI is 6-0 ATS after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons.DETROIT is 9-26 ATS  as a road favorite of 7 points or less since 1992.

.Note:The Dolphins are 11-0 ATS SU on a natural surface when they are off a FG-plus win in which they threw at least one interception and they are facing a team that has thrown the ball on 56%-plus of their plays season-to-date.

Play on Miami Dolphins to cover 

Wembley Stadium - London, England

Hate to be completely simplistic with my approach to this game, but what we have here is a team in the Chargers currently hitting on all cylinders and off three straight wins and other team the Titans on a two game losing streak, behind a offence that was shutout last week, and that has put 9, 12 points on the board in 2 of their previous three games. The Titans QB Mariota who had shown so much promise in the past has slowly begun to fizzle behind HC  Vrabels conservative  methodical system, and looks at times disinterested and just going through the motions. Thats not a good mind set to be in when going against an explosive up trending team like the Chargers. 

LA CHARGERS is 29-4 ATS against AFC South division opponents since 1992.TENNESSEE is 8-22 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1992.

TENNESSEE is 15-35 ATS L/50 vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game

Tennessee is 0-15 ATS L/15  vs a side like the Chargers that has won each of their last two games by at least six points and covered them both. San Diego is 16-0 ATS L/16  on natural surface vs a non-divisional opponent like the Titans that has averaged more than one turnover per game and less than 70% completions and had suffered a positive takeaway margin in each of their last two games.

Play on San Diego Chargers to cover 

UCLA finally got a win last week, after starting their season at 0-5. They beat what looked to be a sleepy California Bears team who was overlooking them by a a 37-7 count. Now they are magically being made more than TD favorite at home , in part because the hobbling and limping Khalil Tate is out with an ankle injury .  Which in my opinion contrary to mainstream thought is actually a good thing. Better to have a 100% healthy 2nd string QB ( Rodriguez) than a banged up pivot who depends on his mobility to to look as good as he does.Rodriguez, the son of former Arizona head coach Rich Rodriguez, completed 20 of 38 passes for 226 yards coming off the bench vs Utah last week and a completed touchdown and should be even more fluent this week.

It must be noted that UCLA is just 1-8 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons so they are from viable chalk bets . UCLA is also just   2-10 ATS  in games when coming off a victory over the last three years and are also a ugly  0-12 ATS when coming off a double-digit win the last four seasons. UCLA is 3-13 ATS  when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) since 1992. These are some nasty numbers, and Im still not sold on Chip Kelleys Bruins quite yet, and feel its to soon to be laying TD or more chalk in a conference game vs a team that matches up well against them according to my power rankings. 

Play on Arizona to cover 

Oregon is coming off a huge 30-27 OT win vs Washington last week, and now in a away game will be in a huge emotional letdown situation against a Washington State team that has the guns to take them out here at home. Note: Washington State is explosive passing team with its "Air Raid" offense under Leach. East Carolina graduate transfer Gardner Minshew is the top passer in the Pac-12 (averaging 403.7 yards a game) while completing 68.7 percent of his passes (215 of 313) with 19 touchdowns and only four interceptions. Strap on you jock straps fellas, this ride is going to get bumpy for the incoming Ducks. Cougars have won 10 straight at home dating back to last season, and have covered 8 straight in this series, and Im betting both streaks stay intact after the final whistle blows here tonight. 

Play on the Washington State Cougars 

 Old Dominion has done one thing right this season, and that is beat Virginia Tech. Other than that this team is completely inept and look like they are still dealing with the massive emotional hangover of that bizarre win. They put everything they had into that game, and now theirs nothing left in the tank. The Monarchs have lost two straight by DDs and took it on the chin last week,   42-20 vs Marshall, and gave up a pile of yards which does not set up well for them coming into this game as they are  0-10 ATS after allowing 475 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1999. 

OLD DOMINION is 2-10 ATS  in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better.

Play on Western Kentucky to cover 

Huge letdown situation for the LSU tigers after upsetting the Georgia Bulldogs last week , which puts them at a disadvantage vs a Mississippi State that can light the board in a hurry. Add to that the Tigers have Sabans Alabama on board for next week, and you can see taking points here with a under appreciated opponent is a viable wagering opportunity. 

Miss State is 4-0 ATS L/4 meetings, and have a good read on HC Oregeron as is evident by last seasons 37-7 beatdown of this same LSU program.

LSU is 3-13 ATS in home games versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry.

CFB road team (MISSISSIPPI ST) - off a home win against a conference rival, with 4+ more total starters and an experienced QB returning against team with new QB are 31-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Miss State to cover 

These two teams Im betting will embark on a all out war this week that favours the dog getting a boatload full of points .Don't get me wrong Clemson is a great team and Death Valley is a nasty place to visit if your an opposing football program, but NC State is highly under rated and more than capable of actually pulling off the upset this week. The last two meetings in this series were won by the Tigers by 7 point counts and another one score game is a high probability event that makes this a  viable wager in this spot. Both these teams are well rested off a bye week, but in the recent past that has not been a recipe for success from a spread perspective for the Tigers as they have failed to cover 4 straight times. Meanwhile, the Wolfpack are 19-2 ATS off a bye,  vs conference foes and have covered 15 of 16 when made underdogs.

NC State has covered 9 straight ATS as 2 TD or more dogs. NC  State is also 12-2 ATS as DD underdogs coming off a SU win.  

NC STATE is 6-0 ATS  after a 2 game home stand over the last 3 seasons.

CLEMSON has failed to cover 19 of their L/27  after 6 or more consecutive straight up wins and 13-29 ATS L/42 after 3 more straight conference wins.

CFBroad team (NC STATE) - excellent offensive team (6.2 YPP or more) against a team with an excellent defense (4.2 YPP or less ), after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 35-10 ATS L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on NC State to cover 

 There is no doubt that Umass can put points on the board in bunches as is evident by 49, 42, 42, explosions in their L/3 games. They won one of those games, and lost the other two vs teams that are also explosive offensively. Meanwhile, Coastal Carolina despite improvement over last season, just don't have the guns to hang with this type of offence, and also own a inconsistent  defence that has allowed 42 points in back to back games.Look for Umass to bomb away on Coastal Carolina and for the visitors to punch back, but Im betting the bigger and more frequent shots will come from UMass. Knockout in the 4th quarter. 

CFB  home team vs. the money line (MASSACHUSETTS) - average team (+/- 0.6 YPP) against a poor team (outgained by 0.6 to 1.2 YPP), after allowing 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 25-1 L/10 seasons for a 96% conversion rate for bettors SU with the average margin of victory differential coming by 17.9 ppg.

UMass to cover 

Ohio has played a tough schedule, with hard luck losses to two very good football teams Cincinnati U and N.Illinois last week. On both occasions they blew late leads, and if it were not for those heart breaking defeats they would be 5-1 on the season, with Virginia being the only team to surprisingly manhandle them 45-31. HC Solich is a solid coach and he now has the opportunity to get his troops back in a winning frame of mind .With that said, look for this explosive Bobcats group on their own home field to now take out their frustrations on a very over matched in disarray Bowling Green team that fired their coach this week.  

Note: Bowling Green is allowing  47.76 ppg overall this season and a even uglier 57.7 ppg on the road. 

BOWLING GREEN is 1-9 ATS when the total is between 63.5 and 70 over the last 3 seasons. BG 21.9  Opponent 51.7 for a +28.8 point differential. 

Play on Ohio to cover 

Virginia knocked off Miami U in a big upset last week, and after that the Cavs and their fans rushed the field like they had won a national championship. Thats what I call irrational exuberance at its best, and now the hungover Cavs will have problems facing a team that I have rated above them my power rankings . You have to remember this is the same Virginia team that crapped the bed earlier this season vs  struggling Indiana  football program and lost 20-16, so its not like their national championship contenders or anything. Meanwhile,Duke rebounded from its first loss of the season against Virginia Tech by surgically  dismantling the Yellow Jackets  option offense in a impressive looking 28-14 conference road victory. Im becoming a believer in the Duke football program that has beaten Army, Northwestern, Baylor this season and Im saying they have to be respected today on a TD or less line at home.

VIRGINIA has failed to cover 18 of their L/24 after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games.

CFBA road team (VIRGINIA) - off an upset win as a home underdog of 7 or more, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 5-27 ATS. for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Road underdogs vs. the money line (VIRGINIA) - off an upset win as a home underdog of 7 or more against opponent off a road win are 2-44 SU with the average score differential clicking in at 21.4 ppg. 

Play on Duke to cover 

Before I get started Id like to say I acknowledge that Michigan has the better all round team in todays confrontation with Michigan State. But being a superior side does not guarantee a cover or even a win on any given Saturday, especially in a game between to long time rivals. Michigan State has also shown themselves golden  under D Antonio  tenure  going 3-0 ATS and 2-1 SU vs Harbaugh and the Wolverines and overall have cashed 10 straight in this series including 8 victories SU. Today I expect the Spartans No.1 ranked rush D, to be the difference maker as Wolverines QB Patterson who will be made one dimensional, which could easily see him make mistakes vs a front 7 that can definitely turn up the heat when motivated. 

Play on Michigan State to cover 

Boise is not as powerful as I expected them to be this season, and have been slightly disappointing to some degree, especially at home last time out losing to a banged up San Diego State squad 19-13. Laying this much lumber at home does not suit their current form and from a recent trends set does not favour them to cover in this spot, as the blue carpet hosts are just 3-14-1 ATS in their last 18 lined home games and an equally dismal 4-18 ATS  in conference games as 21 or more point chalk. Meanwhile, Colorado State is picking up the pace of late after a slow start and have won and covered two straight as well winning the stats battle. The Rams have covered 6 of their L/7 on the road as 14 or more points and will be ready to avenge a 59-52 shootout loss at home last year the Blue Broncos.

COLORADO ST is 24-9 ATS L/33 vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game.

Play on the Colorado State Rams to cover 

The Jets despite of notching a win last week, vs a sleepy looking Denver team were not particularly efficient and still had two turnovers, which is not a good omen for them this week vs top tier QB  Andrew Luck  and Colts. It must be noted that NFL teams that had fewer than six wins the previous season are 0-18 ATS at home when they are off a home win in which they committed two-plus turnovers and have lost 15 of the 18 games SU. Meanwhile, the Colts are off having their butts kicked in a Thursday night clash last week in prime time, and have shown a propensity to bounce back well with Luck at the helm of the offence, as is evident by  Indys record when coming off a SUATS loss, recording a  22-4 SU  mark along with a bankroll expanding  21-5 ATS  record in his NFL career – including 13-0 SU and 12-1 ATS against below .500 opposition and a perfect  7-0 ATS when coming off a non-division double- digit loss as was the case vs the Indianapolis and  is also 12-1 ATS vs a non-divisional opponent when they are off a loss by more than a TD in which their opponent had more third down conversions than punts. With that said, expect Luck and company to cash this week vs a Jets side that is 0-4 ATS L/4 off a SU/ATS win. 

NFL Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NY JETS) - in a game involving two average teams (within +/- 40 YPG of their opponents), after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game are 19-47 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Atlanta enters this game banged up and displaying a atrocious D that is allowing just under 400  yards a game. Should they really be a FG favorite even here at home in their current state, Im saying maybe based on perceptions and respect from the recent past successes. However, based on tangible evidence and their current form, I definitely say their fade material vs a Tampa Bay team that must not be underestimated in their ability to upset them. I know TB  is coming off two straight losses, including an embarrassing 48-10 loss at Chicago Sept. 30. But pros don't like to be embarrassed and with a week of rest will be hell bent on getting redemption. TB has also  shown a propensity to bounce back, on the road after a bye and are 5-1 ATS with rest. 

ATLANTA is 8-20 ATS L/28 in home games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/att. ATLANTA is 0-6 ATS  after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.

NFL Home teams vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games are 10-27 SU for a go against SU conversion rate of 73% for bettors.

NFL team (TAMPA BAY) - after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games are 34-9 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Tampa Bay to cover 

Wembley Stadium - London, England

The Seahawks are showing some signs of life after many began to write them off earlier this season as they have won 2 of their L/3 games and played a top tier LA Rams team tough last week losing a 33-31 battle but covering as 7 point dogs. Meanwhile, Oakland is showing very little  life and have lost 4 of their first 5 games  thanks mostly to a defense that is allowing 29.8 ppg and an offense that has scored more than 20 points once this season. Look for Seattle a team that averages 23.2 ppg to do some damage this week and to get us a cover.

OAKLAND is 1-8 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 2 seasons.  

NFL Favorites vs. the money line (SEATTLE) - team with a turnover diff. of +0.75/game or better against a team with a diff of -0.75/game or worse, after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 38-3 L/10 seasons for a SU 93% conversion rate for bettors. with the average victory coming by 9.6 ppg. 

Play on Seattle to cover 

Im sure Wyoming does not inspire a lot of betting backers, because of their sub par record and crappy offence. But one thing this team can do is eat up clock and slow their games down to a crawl via a slow progressive run game, and a defence that is highly under rated.  Note: WYOMING is 13-4 ATS L/17  as a road underdog of 14.5 to 21 points . I know Fresno State looked powerful this season with their only loss coming against Minnesota, but it must be noted that Wyoming owns a 8-0 ATS record as road underdogs of 23 or less points  vs opp coming off consecutive victories and are viable investment options in this spot.  With that said, Im betting Fresno State is getting to much respect here for beating a struggling UCLA side and  a defensively deficient Toledo team travelling from east to west , and that Wyoming actually maybe more of headache for them then what the home side might expect. 

CFB team (WYOMING) - after 5 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 35-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (FRESNO ST) - after allowing 6 points or less last game against opponent after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 14-41 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Wyoming to cover