Arizona is more than capable of  taking advantage of Seattle's porous run defense and Im betting on  QB Kyle Murray to run wild here and use play action to put up a big offensive output. The Seahawks have allowed an average of 30.8 ppg this season, and those numbers should not get any better after this tilt. 

ARIZONA is 6-0 ATS  in road games in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Kingsbury is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. poor ball control teams, 28 or less possession minutes/game as the coach of ARIZONA.

SEATTLE is 0-6 ATS after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better over the last 3 seasons.

NFL team (SEATTLE) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 2-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 92% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road favorites (ARIZONA) - with a poor first half defense - 14 or more points per game, after a loss by 6 or less points are 22-4 ATS L/39 seasons for a 85% conversion rate. 

The visiting team is  15-2-1 ATS in this series and a rinse and repeat situation is at hand this Sunday again. 

Play on Arizona to cover 

How embarrassing it must have been for the Steelers as an organization after last weeks 38-3 loss to Buffalo. Now in redemption mode Im expecting  Tomlin and company to salvage some respect with a top tier effort here at home vs TB ,  where they are 9-1-3 ATS L/13 as home dogs, including a 5-0 ATS mark vs NFC south and 5-1 ATS L/6 vs the Buccaneers. Note:Tomlin when getting points at home is  12-2-5 ATS in his career, including 5-0-2 ATS L/7 opportunities dating back 4 seasons. 

PITTSBURGH is 17-6 ATS  after allowing 35 points or more last game since 1992 with a +8 point diff. 

NFLHome underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PITTSBURGH) - slow starting team - outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 14 points or less last game are 31-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Pittsburgh to cover 

The Giants are being under rated here as home dogs vs a Baltimore team that does not deserve as much respect as its getting based in part on their reputation and their win against Cincinnati last time out. However, after watching the Giants consistently this season, Ive noticed one key factor which has me on them today, and that is team chemistry and grit. This team plays hard, and have more upper tier talent than given credit for.

Note: Ravens bring a 3-7 ATS  L/10 NFC East, including  0-4-1 ATS when traveling . The home side this season is  5-0 ATS run in this series and a rinse and repeat situation is at hand. 

Harbaugh is 18-30 ATS  in October games as the coach of BALTIMORE.

NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (BALTIMORE) - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (1.25 or less turnovers/game committed), after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers are 22-49 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against  69% conversion rate. 

Play on NY Giants to cover 

Dolphins QBs Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater are  in concussion protocol, and if one or the other plays will be less than 100% this week vs the visiting Vikings. The Dolphins could be forced to start rookie Skylar Thompson, who played most of Miami's Week 4 loss to the New York Jets. On the flipside Im betting QB  Kirk Cousins and the Vikings take advantage of the banged up Fins and  Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook  to  explode on the Miami defense  and romp to a win behind a consistent offense. 

MIAMI is 0-6 ATS in October games over the last 2 seasons.

San Jose State 12-0 SUATS  as a road favorite in games when coming off a double-digit win like last time out by a 40-7 count vs UNLV. Im betting on the Spartans up trending to continue here vs a Fresno State side that is 0-4 SU/ATS this season, with a lack of offense being a key problem for them (23.6 ppg). SAN JOSE ST is 23-8 ATS L/31 as a road favorite . 

Plus we have revenge on board here by Brennan and company as Fresno State smashed San Jose State last season by a 40-7 count. 

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (FRESNO ST) - outrushed by their opponents by 60 or more yards/game on the season, after allowing 6 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 14-39 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on San Jose State to cover 

Clemson at 6-0 is getting better with each passing week and have an edge over a Florida state side that has lost two straight after a fast start.Clemson is 4-0 ATS in the last four of this series and gets the nod here as Im betting they continue their upward momentum. 

Play on Clemson to cover 

The Huskies have dropped two straight, including last week’s 45-38 loss at Arizona State and really need a big game, and Im betting they get it. note: Arizona QB Jayden de Laura  the last time he was here with Arizona State was inserting a giant flag featuring the Washington State logo in the turf at midfield after leading the Cougars to an Apple Cup smash down  last November.   I know de Laura is not  with the Cougars anymore but you can bet the Huskies will be primed for payback this Saturday and could easily be merciless in romp to a big DD victory. 

ARIZONA is 1-11 ATS  in road games after allowing 575 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992. ARIZONA is 4-22 ATS  in road games after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored since 1992.

NFL Road underdogs (ARIZONA) - off 4 or more consecutive overs, with a poor scoring defense - allowing 31 or more points/game are 5-23 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate. 

Play on Washington to cover 

James Madison at 5-0 gets all the headlines and alot of support from the pundits buy the Eagles (3-3) own the  top-ranked offense in the Sun Belt and the 11th-best passing offense in the nation and must not be underestimated in their abilities to keep things close because of their offensive prowess and  give us in a worse case scenario a back door cover . With that said, will will go against the public darlings, and take the underdog. GA SOUTHERN is 8-1 ATS   vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. over the last 3 seasons.

Play on the Georgia Southern Eagles to cover 

The Bulldogs are coming off a 41-31 victory over UTEP to open Conference USA play, which was the programs six straight conference-opening win.Quarterback Parker McNeil has thrown for 1,167 yards and 12 touchdowns this season. He ranks fourth in the FBS in yards per completion (14.8) and is more than capable of leading his team to a cover here and even a SU win. Note:LA Tech ranks third nationally with five plays from scrimmage over sixty yards. The Bulldogs are 21st nationally in plays from scrimmage over 30 yards with 16. I know North Texas has won seven-straight C-USA matchups dating back to Oct. 30, 2021 which is the longest active streak in the league and the fourth-longest streak nationally, but all good and bad runs must eventually come to an end.LOUISIANA TECH is 5-0 ATS and  straight up against NORTH TEXAS since 1992 here in this venue and a rinse and repeat situation is possibly at hand and more important a cover . 

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (LOUISIANA TECH) - with a poor scoring defense - allowing 31 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games are 47-13 ATS L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on LA Tech to cover 

Alabama QB Bryce Young is questionable and if he plays will be less than 100% giving an edge to what will be a hyped up home team ready to make an imprint on the SEC.  Tennessee is the real deal behind stud QB QB Herndon Hooker and must be respected here getting points. I know the Vols have lost 15 straight to Bama, but the under valued Vols have already ended 5-game losing streaks to Florida and LSU and like the old saying goes 3s a charm. 

CFB home team vs. the money line (TENNESSEE) - good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game, after scoring 31 points or more in 5 straight games are 36-2 L/5 seasons for a 95% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Road favorites (ALABAMA) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins are 13-38 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against  75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tennessee to cover 

BYU is off a hard fought loss to Notre Dame last week, and now in. a emotional letdown state go against a tough Arkansas squad in a vulnerable state .  Note: Cougars are just  1-8 ATS versus SEC opposition dating back 32 seasons. Arkansas HC Sam Pitman is   7-0 SU and 5-0 ATS in his career vs non conference opposition. 

BYU is 19-37 ATS L/56 in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. Sitake is 5-14 ATS  after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of BYU.

ARKANSAS is 23-9 ATS  off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more since 1992.

CFB home team (BYU) - off a loss against a conference rival against opponent off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more are 44-82 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play. on Arkansas to cover 

CFB home team vs. the money line (TCU) - after scoring 31 points or more in 5 straight games are 33-2 L/5 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +13.2 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering.

Play on TCU

CFB home team vs. the money line (SYRACUSE) - with an excellent defense - allowing 285 or less total yards/game, after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 42-3 L/5 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff at +22.9 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. 

Play on Syracuse to cover 

After smashing Oklahoma by a 49-0 count last week, I expect the Longhorns to be in an emotional letdown spot here in this tilt vs Iowa State. Iowa State after a close last time out to Kansas State now finds itself in desperation mode and Im betting they leave everything on the filed this week. Note: Cyclones HC Campbell is 10-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog in conference tilts , including 10-0 ATS against winning sides. 

TEXAS is 20-35 ATS   after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992.

Iowa state has won and covered the last two meetings in this series. 

Play on Iowa State to cover 

Navy has looked good of late after starting lethargically at 0-2. They have won 2 of their L/3 with the only loss a 13-10 heart breaker to military rivals Air Force. Today against SMU Im betting the Middies triple option run heavy offense keeps them in this game vs a SMU side thatS ranks 106th in rush yards allowed this season allowing  179 yards per game. 

NAVY is 8-1 ATS  vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 34 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons. 

NAVY is 7-0 ATS  in road games off an upset win as a home underdog which was the case last time out vs Tulsa . 

SMU is 6-16 ATS when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) 

CFB team (SMU) - excellent offensive team (6.2 or better YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP), after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play 2 consecutive games are 10-35 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (NAVY) - mistake free team - 42 or less penalty yards per game, after dominating the time of possession last game (36+ minutes) are 44-15 ATS L/30 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Navy to cover 

Temple’s visits  the Bounce House tonight in a game that Im betting will not go well for them. Temple just does not travel well  going 0-6 SU/ATS L/6 away and that trend should stay intact vs  team that is a  defensive juggernaut   as they  lead  the nation in red zone defense. Opponents have scored on just 47% of their trips to the red zone, converting on 9-of-19 attempts. The Knights have only allowed four touchdowns in the red zone in 19 trips for opponents.

Duke shutout Temple in their first game this season, and than last time out scored just 3 points so scoring will be an issue this evening for them again. Meanwhile, UCF has averaged 35.6 ppg so far this season on offense and another points  explosion is not out of the question on their home turf on Space night where they have won all 5 of these themed tilts. Note: The Owls have been destroyed by UCF in their last 3 meetings by an average 36.3 ppg. 

  Since 2017, the Knights are 33-3 SU in home games at FBC Mortgage Stadium.

TEMPLE is 0-8 ATS off a road loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.TEMPLE is 0-6 ATS  after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.

CFB Favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (UCF) - after 2 straight wins by 17 or more points against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 71-33 ATS L/30 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on UCF to cover

Baylor is the overall superior side, but West Virginia is always dangerous because of their explosive offense. Here at home West Virginia Im betting has enough of an edge on this line to get us the cover. The Mountaineers are a perfect 5-0 SU L/5 at home in this series.

Note: Losing to Oklahoma State at home last time will take a little bit out the Bears and their performance could easily be muted.  

Brown is 11-1 ATS after a game where they forced no turnovers as the coach of W VIRGINIA.

Mountaineers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.

Mountaineers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Mountaineers are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 home games.

Bears are 7-16-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.Bears are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a bye week.

Play on West Virginia to cover 

I know Philly is a perfect 4-0 and the only undefeated team in the NFL right now but despite of The Birds offensive line is a little banged up they are still capable of hanging tough here at home vs a team traveling from the west to east. Note: The Cards  signed some insurance in the form of Billy Price who is a multiple purpose lineman and highly under rated. Im betting despite of the injuries the Cards will step up here and be competitive. 

Arizona is 6-0 ATS in its last six games against the NFC East. ARIZONA is 22-9 ATS   vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season. Kingsbury is 11-3 ATS  in weeks 5 through 9 as the coach of ARIZONA. Kingsbury is 11-3 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of ARIZONA.

NFL Road favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - solid team - out-gaining their opponents by 0.75 or more yards/play, after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are just 5-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Cardinals to cover 

 Detroit owns a a defense that ranks at the bottom of the NFL in overall yards (444.8) and points allowed (35.3 ) and is in fade material in their current form . Detroit lost to Seattle 48-45 last time out. Patriots are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and have the edge! 

DETROIT is 3-12 ATS  in road games off an extremely close home loss by 3 points or less. DETROIT is 9-22 ATS  in road games after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game

NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS  against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Belichick is 17-4 ATS after being out-gained by 150+ total yards in their previous game as the coach of NEW ENGLAND which was the case last time out. 

NFL  team (DETROIT) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 2-23 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 92% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Patriots to cover 

Miamis QB today Bridgewater is 2-0 in two career starts against the Jets, completing 73.1 percent of his throws in those affairs. Today Im betting he hits Tyreek Hill (477 yards, two touchdowns) and Jaylen Waddle (381 yards, three touchdowns) for enough receptions and scores to get us to the promised land. Meanwhile, the flip-side, NY Jets QB Wilson, who went 3-10 as a starter last year, is playing behind a banged-up offensive line and at a disadvantage this Sunday. 

Dolphins are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC East.MIAMI is 9-0 ATS  off 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons.

Jets are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 vs. AFC East.

Play on the Miami Dolphins to cover 

NYG QB Daniels is not 100% with a banged up ankle hampering his mobility which is not a good omen against the Packers aggressive pass rush. With that said, Im betting on the Gmens offense to have flow issues, while the Packers behind , Aaron Rodgers arm gets consistent production and gets is a conclusive victory. 

In the previous 7 international  games that have featured favs  of more than 7 points  the chalk have gone 6-0 SU cashing 5 of those times with the winning team allowing an average of just 11.7 ppg. 

NFL Favorites vs. the money line (GREEN BAY) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (18-23 PPG), after a win by 3 or less points are 29-1 L/10 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +13.2 which qualifies on the his ATS offering. 

Play on Green Packers to cover 

Washington State looks explosive offensively behind the arm of QB transfer Cameron Ward who is being looked at very closely by NFL scouts. I know USC has a fine group this season, but it must also be noted that  USC is 1-9 ATS  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons. With a look ahead revenger against Utah on board next week, its not out of the realm of possibility that the Trojans could get caught looking ahead and a vulnerable spot as DD favs. 

USC is 0-6 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

WASHINGTON ST is 10-2 ATS  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons.WASHINGTON ST is 8-0 ATS  after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game over the last 2 seasons.WASHINGTON ST is 6-0 ATS  in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 2 seasons. Dickert is 6-0 ATS  after playing a game at home as the coach of WASHINGTON ST.

Play on Washington State to cover 

Kentucky took a gut-wrenching, 22-19 loss at No. 14 Ole Miss last week, and despite of being angry because of bad calls, from the officials will have a hard time in what must be considered a huge letdown scenario.Wildcats are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.

South Carolina has had promising performances since its blowout loss to Georgia in Week 3. They can be excused for their performance vs one of college footballs top teams, so Im not underestimating their ability to compete vs a good but slightly over rated Kentucky side. 

Play on South Carolina to cover 

The Illinois defense is currently ranked  No. 1 in the nation in scoring D allowing  a little  over eight points per game. Here today against a Iowa side that struggles to score averaging just 16.4 ppg they have an edge. Last week the Illini held Wisconsin to just 10 points and a rinse and repeat situation is on board here this week in what the lines-makers are suggesting will be a low scoring battle. Illinois has the better offensive flow and will get the job done and bring us home the dough. 

Fighting Illini are 7-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Fighting Illini are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.

CFB home team vs. the money line (ILLINOIS) - with a good rushing D - allowing 125 or less rushing yards/game, after allowing 1 or less rushing yards/attempt last game are 27-3 L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate. 

Play on Illinois to cover

 Texas State owns  the 4th-best defense in the Sun Belt and the No. 2 pass defense and have the ability to stay within the underdog line here at home vs the offensively explosive Mounties .

Despite of App States offensive attributes they  have looked inconsistent at times this season and with  Coach Shawn Clarke at the helm of  the Mountaineers they are just  8-15-1 ATS as favs.  Meanwhile, Texas State is  , 6-1-1 ATS when a home dog the past three years plus, and are  6-1-1 ATS at home versus teams with a better record than themselves. 

TEXAS ST is 6-0 ATS  after a loss by 21 or more points over the last 3 seasons which was the case last time out. 

Play on Texas State to cover 

The Sun Devils have taken part in a tough schedule with three previous opponents  ranked in top 11 of the AP Poll at the time of their tilts. Now battle tested against top tier opposition Im betting they will not be intimidated here at home and get us the cover like they did last week. Note: Wash is just  1-8 ATS  lL9 as road chalk  of 7 or more points . Meanwhile, the Sun Devils 12-2 SU and 13-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings in this series and deserve respect getting this many points .  The last time the Huskies won in Tempe was 2001 with a late FG. 

WASHINGTON is 0-6 ATS  vs. sub par passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 2 seasons.

ARIZONA ST is 27-11 ATS  in home games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season.

Play on Arizona State to cover 

Pittsburgh Panthers lost at home to Georgia Tech  as 21-point favorites last time out, and despite of wanting to get redemption may find the sledding tougher than anticipated once again this week. I know the Hokies do not inspire most bettors, but they still own a  defense, that allows just 310-YPG ranking No. 26 overall in the nation. Considering the  issues Pittsburgh has shown so far it very much looks like we have en edge taking a 2 TD or more underdog in this spot play. 

Panthers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games.

Narduzzi is 10-20 ATS  as a home favorite as the coach of PITTSBURGH.PITTSBURGH is 16-32 ATS after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game.

Play on VTech to cover 

Utah is know for its toughness, but this group of Bruins are equally rugged, behind offensive line that leads the nation in fewest tackles for loss per game allowed. The Bruins ground game is also in a groove , and functioning with better flow than Utes are. I know Utahs D, is nasty good, but the Florida  Gators ran for 283 yards against them, and Im betting the Bruins can replicate that and help get us the cover in the process. 

UCLA is 5-0 SUATS since 2000 as an unbeaten home dog.  

UCLA is 22-8 ATS  in home games after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored 

CFB  home team vs. the money line (UCLA) - good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game, after scoring 31 points or more in 5 straight games are 34-2 L/5 seasons for a 95% conversion rate. 

CFB Road favorites (UTAH) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins are 12-37 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate.

Play on UCLA to cover 

Purdue is coming off a big win last week against Minnesota and have now won 2 in a row. I know Maryland is also off a victory and have looked good this season including a close loss to Michigan, but it must be noted the Terps HC Locksley is 0-13 SU   in his career going up against a football program  coming off consecutive wins. So faltering here is not out of the question and according to my projections probable. 

Purdues D is 77+ yards better than Marylands and today D will be the difference maker. 

Boilermakers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 conference games.Boilermakers are 10-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Boilermakers are 17-7-2 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Brohm is 11-2 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. as the coach of PURDUE. Brohm is 20-6 ATS  versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.75 or more  rushing yards/carry in all games he has coached.

Terrapins are 18-37 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Terrapins are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games.Terrapins are 16-41 ATS in their last 57 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.Terrapins are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 conference games.Terrapins are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in October.

Play on Purdue to cover 

Brian Kelly’s 4-1 Tigers are playing some good football  and deserve respect here as underdogs vs one way offensive side Tennessee Vols football program. Kelley is  18-7 SU at home against  undefeated opposition like Tennessee. Heupel is 3-14 ATS  after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game in all games he has coached. 

Volunteers are 4-12 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Volunteers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference games.

Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.Tigers are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games following a ATS loss.Tigers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.

CFB Road favorites (TENNESSEE) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins are 12-37 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on LSU to cover 

TCU is in a letdown spot after a big win vs Oklahoma last time out and are vulnerable to a slow start here this week against upstart Jayhawks.

The series hosts are 5-1 ATS L/6 in this series.

TCU is 2-13 ATS vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return.

Horned Frogs are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.Horned Frogs are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games on fieldturf. Horned Frogs are 7-17 ATS in their last 24 games in October.Horned Frogs are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.Horned Frogs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 conference games.Horned Frogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

CFB Road favorites (TCU) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins are 12-37 ATS L/5 seasons for a  76% go against conversion rate.

Play on Kansas to cover 

Oklahoma has lost back to back games and is suddenly no longer a favorite of the pundits and obviously the lines-makers. This is the first time in the last 14 meetings that the Longhorns have been made favs. Note: OKLAHOMA is 7-0 ATS off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite since 1992. I know the Texas offense is explosive but the Sooners are  11-3 ATS  vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons. There was alot of wise guy money that came in on Texas early on when the line first opened , but now its been over done and Ill be recommending we take the points.

The last eight meetings have been decided by eight points or less.

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TEXAS) - in a game involving two excellent passing teams (8.3 or more  PYA), after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game are 12-36 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate. 

Play on Oklahoma to cover 

Colts star   RB Jonathan Taylor is not 100% if he plays tonight as his ankle continues to give him trouble. With the Colts  key offensive juggernaut not at his zenith their offense should continue to struggle. Note: Colts offense has averaged   an NFL-low 14.3 points per game and with senior citizen  QB Matt Ryan on his last legs the Colts offense is not going to operate well enough to generate a decent output . On the flip-side Broncos  qb Wilson has gone 20-3 in home primetime games and will be out to show case his top shelf grit this Thursday night and finally get consistent red zone TD conversions.  

The Colts are ranked 32nd in offensive DVOA this year.

Broncos are 4-0 SU/ATS vs non division opposition on Thursday nights and are 4-0 ATS L/4 in this series.

NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (INDIANAPOLIS) - poor rushing team (70-95 RY/game) against a team with an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/game), after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 60-107 L/39 seasons for a go against 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Denver 

UCF owns a perfect 5-0 record at home against the Mustangs in the all time series. SMU won the last meeting between the programs, in DD fashion at home and now with revenge on board Im betting UCF will this game in motivated fashion and proverbially  leave no prisoners. Note:Since 2017, the Knights are 32-3 SU in home games at FBC Mortgage Stadium and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation in place behind , a Knights defense has been top shelf season, as is evident by leading  the nation in red zone defense. Opponents have scored on just 40% of their trips into the red zone, converting on  just 6-of-15 attempts. The Knights have only allowed three touchdowns in the red zone in 15 trips for opponents and are projected to give SMU issues in offensive flow in key down situations.Following the first four games of the season, UCF is one of just two FBS teams (Oregon) to surpass 600 yards of total offense in more than one game this season. The Knights recorded a season-high 653 yards in the road win at Florida Atlantic and also tallied 605 yards in the season opener against South Carolina State. 

On the flip-side  UCF is averaging 275.8 rushing yards per game, which ranks third nationally and leads the AAC. Fifth-year running back Isaiah Bowser is 19th in nationally with five rushing touchdowns, which is second in the conference.  I expect the Knights will pound the ball on the  ground and slow this game down to a crawl which will take high flying Mustangs out of their game flow. 

SMU is 9-24 ATS  in road games vesus good rushing teams - averaging 4.75 or more  rushing yards/carry.SMU is 19-36 ATS  when the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (UCF) - an excellent offensive team (34 or more PPG) against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG), after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games are 43-15 ATS L/30 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on UCF to cover 

I  have a great deal of respect for KC and Patrick Mahomes but tonight Im betting against them on the road in Tampa Bay against QB Tom Brady and company. I know  three-time NFL MVP has thrown for just 673 yards and three touchdowns in three games after setting franchise records in both categories last season (5,316, 43) but like a thoroughbred off a long lay off , he will be now ready  with the rust worm off to perform at an optimal output here on national tv in the Sunday night spot light event. Note: Brady is 11-1-1 ATS as a home dog in his illustrious career. 

Chiefs are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.Chiefs are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games following a ATS loss.Chiefs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

Buccaneers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss.Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Buccaneers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games.

Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Tampa Bay.Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

NFL Favorites (KANSAS CITY) - out-gaining their opponents by 1.75 or more passing yards/attempt, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game arem24-56 L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tampa Bay to cover 

 The New York Jets secondary has  allowed the fourth-most yards per attempt at 7.5 per pass and Im betting even the much maligned QB Trubisky cannot do some downfield damage here this Sunday.Opposition QBs  have eclipsed  this offered Total in two of three games against the Jets and a rinse and repeat situation is a high probability event. 

Dallas QB Rush has played well in wins over the AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals and the New York Giants but Im betting he has a lapse here vs a D that my rankings suggest matchup well against him and the Dallas O line!  

I know the Commanders experienced a nasty day  in last week's 24-8 loss to Philadelphia, but this is a better side than that score would indicate and Im betting they will be ready to get some redemption in a motivated bounce back situation. 

Washington's QB  Wentz has a history of success against the Boyz. In eight career starts against the men from Dallas , and  has  garnered 14 touchdowns and a career passer rating of 95.7. He will be key again and give us the edge to cover. 

WASHINGTON is 20-8 ATS L/28 in road games vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return . Rivera is 22-10 ATS  after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread in all games he has coached.

NFL Favorites (DALLAS) - poor offensive team - scoring 17 or less points/game are 3-21 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 88% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Washington to cover 

Browns lead the league in Time of Possession this season (35:36) and are capable of hitting back via the pass game with under rated QB Brissett  or the  run game behind vaunted RB Chubb. Brissett has given up just one interception in 92 passes so far this season.

They have won the stats battle in all 3 of their games and deserve respect here to cash for on the road vs a over rated Atlanta side. Note: The Browns are 5-0 ATS L/5 non conference road tilts. 

Atlanta is 0-8 SUATS versus the AFC North last 8 seasons , while the Browns are  7-0 ATS in its last seven games against the NFC South.

Smith is 0-6 ATS  in home games after playing their last game on the road as the coach of ATLANTA.ATLANTA is 2-18 ATS in home games after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread. 

The Browns own a 12-3 lead in the all-time series, including a 28-16 home win in the teams' last meeting on Nov. 11, 2018. Rinse and repeat situation on board. 

Play on Cleveland to cover 

The Ravens must not be underestimated   in this tilt vs a top tier  Buffalo side  as they are, averaging 33 points and 380.3 yards per game behind the arm and legs  of QB  Jackson, and a over powering offensive line. 

Baltimore's HC John Harbaugh is 7-1 ATS in his last eight games as a home underdog, going  5-0 ATS in his L/5 opportunities . 

BALTIMORE is 37-21 ATS against AFC East division opponents.BALTIMORE is 5-1 straight up against BUFFALO since 1992 at home. 

It must be noted that \NFL Home dogs with a moneyline in the +125 to +155 own a strong  23-11 (68%) conversion rate  straight dating back 17 seasons. 

NFLFavorites (BUFFALO) - solid team - out-gaining their opponents by 0.75 or more yards/play, after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are are 12-52 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Baltimore to cover 

I know Clemson has won 36 straight home games, and I wont be surprised if they win again, but after their exhausting back and forth battle against Wake Forest last week, I expect a natural letdown scenario to hit the Tigers, which could easily effect their ability to start fast and cover here vs a under rated and tough NC State football program that ranks 2nd in D. 

Both these sides are 4-0 SU on the season, and both failed to cover last time out. However it must be noted that 

NC STATE is 8-1 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons.

NC STATE is 19-7 ATS versus excellent rushing defenses - allowing 90 or less rushing yards/game. NC STATE is 8-0 ATS after a game where they forced no turnovers over the last 3 seasons.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NC STATE) - with a good defense - allowing 4.8 or less yards/play, after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous games are 23-4 ATS L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on NC State to cover

In Sun Belt games, Arkansas State has won 12 straight over the Warhawks and leads the series 17-4 after beating ULM 27-24 in Monroe last year as 3 point underdogs which was the 12th straight cover by the Wolves  in this series. With LA Monroe off a huge win vs Lafayette last week by a 21-17 count as underdogs Im betting on a natural letdown scenario to rear its ugly head vs a Arkansas State program that for what ever reasons owns a long term winning record. I know Arkansas State is just 1-3 but with Florida State transfer QB James Blackman, beginning to come into his own the Wolves are dangerous opponents.  in his second year in the program, the veteran QB 43 career games and 34 starts under his belt, Blackman has completed 83-of-123 passes for 958 yards and five touchdowns with just one interception. Add to that Recognized on the Doak Walker Watch List, Johnnie Lang Jr. leads the ground game with 219 yards and one touchdown on 45 carries while Brian Snead has 164 yards and four scores on 39 attempts. Two pronged attack gets it done this week and gets us a win and cover.

Arkansas State to cover 

Wake Forest had a 11 game winning streak at home end last week in a OT loss to Clemson. Now angry and hungry and ready for redemption Im betting the explosive Demon Deacons behind the arm of star QB Sam Hartman to give the pubic darling Florida State Seminoles all they can handle. 

FLORIDA ST is 6-16 ATS  as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. Clawson is 14-5 ATS  when the total is between 63.5 and 70 as the coach of WAKE FOREST

Clawson is 12-3 ATS  after gaining 300 or more passing yards in 3 straight games in all games he has coached

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (FLORIDA ST) - in a game involving two excellent passing teams (8.3 or more PYA), after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game are 12-34 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Wake Forest to cover

Michigan State has lost two straight and are not the public darling they once were . They were beat by a very good Washington team by 11 points then fell flat on their faces in a emotional letdown spot last time out to vs Minnesota in a ugly DD loss. Now in desperation mode Im betting they come out here and leave everything on the field vs Maryland. Note: Terps are just 6-18 SU and 7-17 ATS in Big Ten battles under Mike Locksley and must not be over estimated despite of playing Michigan tough last time out.MICHIGAN ST is 6-1 straight up against MARYLAND since 1992 and Im betting gets us the cover here.

Play on Michigan State to cover 

James is off a big upset vs App State and will now be in an emotional letdown state this week as they bring a perfect 3-0 record in their first FBS season. Texas State  ranks  No. 17 in tackling,  and could easily give JMU’s passing attack problems behind a  No. 3 ranked pass-rush grade and No. 1 in the nation in PFF coverage grade. Intensity could easily be lacking here for JMU and Texas State is built to take advantage of it.Texas State gives up only 301 YPG and  Im betting can hold the fort here. 

CFB home team (JAMES MADISON) - good rushing team (190 to 230 RY/game) against a terrible rushing team (100 or less RY/game), in conference games are 4-27 ATS L/5 seasons for a 87% go against  conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Texas State to cover

Iowa has been a strong home side for a very long time. Something about this crowd and the energy created brings out the best in this program no matter what the perceived levels of talent they currently have on the filed as compared to their competition.  I know Michigan is a strong side, but Im betting things dont come all that easily for them this week in this road tilt vs a top ranked  D, that can stifle the best of offenses. ( I know there is a  key injury to linebacker Jacobs , but their is alot of grit in this Hawkeyes D, and Im betting they find a way to pull up the slack)

Note: Iowas HC Kirk Ferentz  is 55-2 ATS  L/57 as a double digit dog at home. Ferentz is 21-8 ATS vs. incredible offensive teams - scoring 37 or more points/game as the coach of IOWA.

Michigan is 0-5-1 ATS L/6 on the road in this series and have not won here since the 2005 campaign. 

IOWA is 31-9 ATS L/40 versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry.IOWA is 6-0 ATS  after a game where they committed no turnovers over the last 3 seasons.

MICHIGAN is 6-22 ATS  after scoring 31 points or more in 3 straight games since 1992.

CFB home team vs. the money line (IOWA) - off 1 or more straight overs, with a good scoring defense - allowing 17 or less points/game are 57-7 L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Iowa 

Both these teams are 4-0 on the season , and with my projections making this a pickem, Im betting getting points at home for UCLA will prove golden .

WASHINGTON is 0-6 ATS  vs. struggling passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 3 seasons.

UCLA is 23-7 ATS in home games after scoring 42 points or more last game which was the case in 1 45-17 win vs hapless Colorado last time out.

Kelly is 6-0 ATS  off 2 or more consecutive overs as the coach of UCLA.

CFB home team (UCLA) - off a road blowout win by 28 points or more, a top-level team (80% or better ) playing a team with a winning record are 29-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UCLA) - after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game, with an experienced QB returning as starter are 31-9 L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UCLA) - with a good defense - allowing 4.8 or less yards/play, after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game are 23-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate.

CFB Road favorites (WASHINGTON) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins are 11-36 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate!

UCLA is 9-2 SU L/11 at home in this series.

Play on UCLA to cover

Boise State is 112th in the nation in scoring at 22 points a game after  garnering just 177 yards of offense despite being favored by 16.5 points over UTEP.  The Broncos’ time of possession was limited to 19:25  in that above mentioned tilt and against a physical San Diego State may struggle again to find flow, especially considering that the Aztecs are expected to pound the ball on the ground and make this a grinding physical game. San Diego State scored the game’s final 24 points to beat Boise State 27-16 at home last season and now a rinse repeat situation Im betting is in place considering the logistics data that shows us the Broncos are struggling more mightily than even the worst pessimist may have expected.SAN DIEGO ST is 6-1 against the spread versus BOISE ST since 1992 and 3-0 ATS L/3 at Boise State. Boise State is also  0-6 ATS L/6 as fav in this series. 

In his fourth season at Houston's helm, Holgorsen has become frustrated with his squad."Tired of yelling at them. Tired of motivating them. Tired of all that crap," Holgorsen said after last Saturday's 34-27 win over Rice. The energy and chemistry with this Cougars group is an indicator of their current motivational mind set giving us an edge with an under rated a hard working  opponent the Tulane Green Wave. Note: Houstons secondary is abysmal allowing an  average of 295 passing yards per game  in four tilts. 

Holgorsen is 0-7 ATS  in home games after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored as the coach of HOUSTON. Holgorsen is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing 310 or less  yards/game in all games he has coached since 1992.

CFB team (HOUSTON) - off 4 or more consecutive overs, with a poor scoring defense - allowing 31 or more points/game are 17-50 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate.

NFL Road underdogs vs. the money line (TULANE) - after allowing 250 or less total yards/game over their last 3 games, with 9 or more defensive starters returning are 28-13 L/30 seasons for a 68% conversion rate.

Miami's QB Tua Tagovailoa’s  has a banged up ankle , but if the Dolphins man under center can not go, Teddy Bridgewater should not be underestimated as a road dog as his  23-9 ATS mark as a  pup would indicate. Note"Teddy Bridgewater has defeated the Bengals two of three times he has faced them.The Fins are 3-0 on the season, and found a way to beat a top tier Buffalo Bills squad this season behind strong receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and are built to give the Bengals secondary fits. Im betting on the Bengals Super Bowl  hangover to hamper them again this week vs a well conditioned side on  short rest.

 Miami is 17-5 SU L/22 meetings in this series. 

Miami is 15-3 ATS L/18 as non division road dogs of 5 points or less.

Miami is 4-0 L/4 vs AFC. 

NFLHome favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CINCINNATI) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 8-37 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Miami to cover

Dallas QB Cooper Rush 2-0 SUATS in his career and I wont be surprised by another win here vs the NY Giants this Monday night.  I know the Giants are 2-0 thanks to two close wins, but if history repeats itself thats not a good omen for a Gmen franchise that is just 2-8 SU/ATS when coming off consecutive victories. I know the Giants have revenge for two straight losses in this series but once again negative numbers appear when in redemption mode as they failed to cover 8 of their L/9 when in Double revenge. 

DALLAS is 6-0 ATS  versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.  DALLAS is 8-1 ATS (in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.

McCarthy is 17-3 ATS  in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points in all games he has coached in his career. 

NFL team vs the money line (NY GIANTS) - off a upset win as an underdog, team that had a terrible record last season (25% or less ) playing a team had a winning record last year are 1-31 L/39 seasons for a go against  97% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Home favorites (NY GIANTS) - poor team from last season - outscored by opponents by 4 or more points/game, versus division opponents are 16-42 ATS L/39 seasons for a go against  73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Dallas Cowboys  to cover 

For the second week in a row the Falcons blew a chance for victory and lost the game with minutes left on the clock. Could the third time around be a charm. Im betting yes. 

Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Falcons are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.

Seahawks are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 vs. NFC.Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.Seahawks are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

NFL Home favorites (SEATTLE) - in the first month of the season, non-playoff team from prior season who won their last 2 games are 4-24 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Atlanta Falcons to cover/win 

Houston has revenge on board for a loss they suffered to Chicago last season by a 36-7 count and will be motivated to get some redemption and payback this Sunday. 

Chicago last time out only threw the ball 11 times and look woefully awful on offense and the D for all intensive  purposes looks suspect .  Im betting the Bears have problems scoring this season unless something drastic is done and that will be their downfall today.

Texas has covered 4 of the L/5 meetings in this series, and the Bears have shown a propensity for failure after taking on the Packers, losing and failing to cover 6 straight times after Cheese head confrontations. 

Texans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Texans are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.

Bears are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Bears are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points which was the case vs the Packers last Thursday night in a DD loss. 

Play on Houston to cover 

The Bengals looked to be in Super Bowl  hungover mode in their first two games of the season , but today Im betting they have an edge against a Jets side that is off a emotional come from behind upset win vs Cleveland last week. The combination of the Bengals being very hungry here, and the Jets batteries being drained Im expecting a conclusive Cincinnati victory and cover. 

NY JETS are 1-11 ATS  after 2 straight games with 40 or more pass attempts.

NFL team vs the money line (NY JETS) - off a upset win as an underdog, team that had a terrible record last season (25% or less) playing a team that  had a winning record last year are 31-1 L/39 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +12.7 which qualifies on the ATS offering. 

Play on the Cincinnati Bengals to cover 

The Colts are off a ugly 24-0 loss to the Jaguars last week and are now in redemption mode and will be primed to pull off an upset  vs a strong looking KC side.  Colts QB Ryan owns a 11-5 SUATS career record against AFC West opp , including 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS as a under dog. If Mahomes and company get the win here Im betting it wont come easily making getting points essential here.

NFL home dogs off a shut loss are 12-2-1 ATS L/15 in their follow up game. 

INDIANAPOLIS is 16-6 ATS  as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points. INDIANAPOLIS is 10-2 ATS off a division game over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Underdogs or pick (INDIANAPOLIS) - good offensive team from last season - scored 24 or more points/game are 46-23 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Indianapolis to cover 

Seminoles are unbeaten but man are they ever beat up. Last Thursday in a hard fought win vs Louisville Florida states starting QB Jordan Travis was on the side line with crutches in the 2nd half  and if he plays this week he  maybe less than 100%.  Im betting Boston takes advantage of this situation and stays very competitive and gets us the cover vs a exhausted Noles side in an emotional and physical letdown situation. Note: Eagles BCs HC Jeff Hafley is 3-0 ATS  as a underdog of 14 or more points. 

These teams have played some very close affairs of late with the last 3 decided by one score or less. Rinse and repeat agenda now on board. 

BOSTON COLLEGE is 34-19 ATS   in road games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season. 

CFB road team (BOSTON COLLEGE) - struggling  rushing team - averaging 100 or less rushing yards/game, after gaining 125 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games are 55-22 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for  bettors. 

Play on Boston  College to cover 

Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day has taken out  Wisconsin twice here with this program,  defeating the  Badgers 38-7 in the 2019 regular season, then repeating the feat  in the conference championship in the same campaign 34-21 and Im betting on a rinse and repeat scenario here today .OHIO ST is 19-7 ATS  in home games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6.25 or better  yards/play  with the average margin ppg diff clicking in at 19,8 ppg. Chryst is 1-9 ATS  after out gaining opp by 125 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games in all games . Wisconsin 1-5-1 ATS L/7 as conference dogs of more than 12 points. Chryst is 2-11 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more passing yards/att. as the coach of WISCONSIN

Day is 11-3 ATS  off a home win by 17 points or more as the coach of OHIO ST.

CFB home team vs. the money line (OHIO STATE) - with an excellent defense - allowing 285 or less total yards/game, after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 43-3 SU L/5 seasons for a 94% conversion rate for. bettors with the average margin of victory combing by 20.2 ppg. 

CFB Home favorites (OHIO ST) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP), after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games are 30-7 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Ohio State to cover

Gtech is 0-3 ITS and been out-yarded by 176 YPG and are fade material in their current form. 

GEORGIA TECH is 0-7 ATS after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. Collins is 1-9 ATS  in non-conference games as the coach of GEORGIA TECH.

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (GEORGIA TECH) - with a poor offense - averaging 315 or less total yards/game, after gaining 3.25 or less yards/play in their previous game are 7-29 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. 

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (GEORGIA TECH) - poor team - outgained by their opponents by 75 or more yards/game, after gaining 3.25 or less yards/play in their previous game are 10-33 ATS L/10 seasons for go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on UCF to cover 

Transfer quarterback Cameron Ward has looked in this Washington State football program so far this season. On the flip-side the up-trending  Cougars have allowed just  12.7 points per game, which has them ranked 19th in D-1. Washington State has given up a  total of 273 yards rushing (91.0 yards per game) in addition to 0 touchdowns rushing for the year. In total, they have surrendered  38 points overall and just  4 passing  touchdowns  and 217.0 yards average pg, which has them ranked 70th in Division 1. Im betting they make the Ducks one dimensional on offense and make life very difficult for the young men from Eugene. 

WASHINGTON ST is 36-18 ATS L/54 versus good rushing teams - averaging 200 or more  rushing yards/game . Dickert is 6-0 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest as the coach of WASHINGTON ST.

CFB Road favorites (OREGON) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins are 10-33 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WASHINGTON ST) - after out gaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 37-14 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Washington State to cover 

The Florida  Gators  enter this road game against Tennessee with 5-1 SUATS record in  the last six meetings, and overall are 16-1 ATS in the last 17 games vs the Vols. Meanwhile, Tennessee is just1-8 ATS as SEC home favorites of 10.5  or less  points. In the Vols last 5 home games vs SEC sides off a victory like Florida is are just 0-5 SU/ATS. I know ol Rocky top has a explosive offense, but Im betting a stronger than expected Florida D, stands tall here and makes life difficult for the DD home fav. 

Heupel is 3-13 ATS  after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game in all games he has coached.

Napier is 10-2 ATS  vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. in all games he has coached.

Play on Florida to cover 

Wake Forest is being under estimated here by the lines-makers according to my own projections. The Deacons  have an 11-game home winning streak and must not be taken lightly in their ability to light up the scoreboard and be competitive as hosts with 5th year experienced QB.Sam Hartman  the helm of the offense . The top tier man under center has accumulated almost    10,000 yards and 79 touchdowns over the span of his College Football career and is a solid underdog. 

CLEMSON is 1-10 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last 3 seasons. CLEMSON is 1-8 ATS  in September games over the last 3 seasons.

Clawson is 21-11 ATS  in home games against conference opponents as the coach of WAKE FOREST.

CFB Road favorites (CLEMSON) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins are 10-33 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Wake Forest to cover 

Powerful Georgia has nothing to worry about here vs Kent State and Im betting will play alot of backups today. Meanwhile, Kent will leave everything on the field in an attempt to make a historical statement. The Flashes have already played Oklahoma and Washington and showed some spark in those games despite of handy defeats and Im betting they find a way to get us a cover vs a disinterested Dawgs side that will most probably trying to stay healthy and remain  rested before SEC heavy duty action gets underway. 

GEORGIA is 7-23 ATS in home games after a cover as a double digit favorite . GEORGIA is 4-13 ATS  in home games after 3 straight wins by 17 or more points . Smart is 1-11 ATS in home games after a cover as a double digit favorite as the coach of GEORGIA.

CFB Home favorites of 21.5 or more points (GEORGIA) - after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game against opponent after being outgained by 125 or more total yds 2 consecutive games are 8-31 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

Iowa State was wide awake last week in their win vs Ohio U by a  43-10 count and are primed to play some big time football this week vs Baylor at home in their Big 12 opener.

Cyclones are  3-0 ITS   and winning the stats battles  by an average 191 YPG early on this campaign and my projections estimate another strong performance vs a viable opponent. 

Note: IOWA ST is 6-0 ATS in home games after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.

Campbell is 8-1 ATS in home games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season as the coach of IOWA ST. Campbell is 14-3 ATS  after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games as the coach of IOWA ST

CFB home team vs. the money line (IOWA ST) - with an excellent defense - allowing 285 or less total yards/game, after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 43-3 SU L/5 seasons for a 94% conversion rate for. bettors with the average margin of victory combing by 20.2 ppg. 

Play on Iowa State to cover 

 Jim Harbaugh has owned Maryland going a perfect 6-0 SUATS in the series while outscoring them by an average of  33 points per game.  Rinse and repeat situation Im betting is now on board this Saturday. Maryland as  Big Ten road pups  of 10 or more points have failed to cover 9 of their L/11 opportunities. 

MARYLAND is 0-6 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a the average margin ppg diff clicking in at -30.2 ppg. 

CFB home team vs. the money line (IOWA ST) - with an excellent defense - allowing 285 or less total yards/game, after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 43-3 SU L/5 seasons for a 94% conversion rate for. bettors with the average margin of victory combing by 20.2 ppg. 

CFB Home favorites (MICHIGAN) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP), after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games are 78-38 ATS L/30 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Michigan to cover 

Since Bryan Harsin took over the coaching duties at Auburn the program has reversed itself, and continued negative regression is expected this week vs Missouri. 

Auburn is 0-3 ATS so far this season. Harsin is 6-11 ATS when favored and coming off a loss, including 2-7 ATS at home (Penn State crushed Auburn last week by a 41-12 count. )

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MISSOURI) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP), after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 27-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Missouri to cover 

UTEP is 1-3 SU on the season and has been outscored by an average of 34-12 and have failed to cover all 4 games. I know Boise State has been slow on take off this season, with a minimal type wins vs Tenn Martin and New Mexico and a opening  loss vs Oregon State. However, now I expect the Blue Broncos  to be in top flight tonight vs a side they pummeled last season by a 54-13 count. Note: The Broncos D has shined allowing an average of 260 ypg total which ranks 10th in the nation and Im betting UTEP struggles to score and keep up. Boise State has faired well in their fourth game of the season the last 4 seasons winning/ cashing all 4 times by an average of 21.5 ppg.  Boise State is 6-0 ATS L/6 in this series and a rinse and repeat scenario is offering itself up tonight. 

Play on Boise State to cover 

The Mountaineers can roll up points quickly but they will go against a  Hokies  side that have rebounded from a last-second loss at Old Dominion to win two straight battles, because of a top tier  defense that ranks 5th overall, 3rd against the run and 15th against the pass in the nation . Compared to West Virginia  they have allowed  126 yards less ppg   than the Mounties including  21 less points per game. Va Tech owns a  7-2 ATS L/9 series edge at Lane Stadium, including 4-0 ATS with revenge which is on board here tonight. Virginia Tech  is 12-7-1 SU all-time at home vs West Virginia. 

W VIRGINIA is 2-11 ATS  in road games vs. very good defensive teams who give up 14 or less points/game. W VIRGINIA is 6-19 ATS L/25 in road games against ACC opponents . 

VIRGINIA TECH is 10-2 ATS  in home games vs. bad defensive teams who give up 31 or more points/game.

Play on Vtech to cover 

I personally believe we have an over reaction to the Cowboys losing their starting QB Prescott for a under determined amount of time because of a hand injury. I know Cincinnati is a strong team, but Joe Burrows   behind a revamped OLine registered a career-high 5 turnovers in last week’s loss to the Steelers and could face pressure again vs a Dallas side that still exhibits a top tier D. In n my humble opinion the Bengals are  vulnerable and we have  a viable investment opportunity backing the underdog Cowboys. 

Defending Super Bowl losers are just  37-62-5 ATS as non-division road chalk.

The Cowboys are a long-term 40-20-1 ATS L/61 as a home underdog . 

DALLAS is 39-23 ATS after a loss by 14 or more points since 1992.

NFL Underdogs or pick (DALLAS) - excellent passing team from last season - averaged 275 or more passing yards/game, after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 34-9 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Dallas to cover 

The Browns miraculously ended a  17-game winless - opening streak  games with a late 58 yard FG with  8 seconds remaining for a 26-24 victory  at Carolina last Sunday much to my chagrin. Despite of that improbable hyperbole victory Im going against the Browns this week. After watching Baker Mayfield struggle behind a offensive line that looked ragged it actually not a hard decision to fade the Browns here vs a under rated NY Jets D that played tough against Baltimore last week despite of losing. 

CLEVELAND is 0-6 ATS  after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons and have failed to cover 6 of their L/7 at home as 3 or more point favorite. 

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CLEVELAND) - marginal losing team from last season who won 40-49% of their games, in conference games are just 14-39 ATS L/39 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on NY Jets to cover 

Carolina lost a 26-24 heart breaker on a 58 yard FG with under 8 seconds left on the clock to Cleveland last week, but Im betting on a bounce back effort here vs public favorite the NY Giants this week, another side that snatched a victory late by a 21-20 count. 

The Giants are just  4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 games when favored and , are just  1-7-1 ATS in non-division tilts. 

NFLHome favorites (NY GIANTS) - team that had a losing record last season, in conference games are 97-163 ATS L/39 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors. 

Tom Brady is still undefeated in his career vs the Dallas Cowboys with a 7-0 record after last weeks win by a 19-3 count. Brady was not prolific but still found a way to win behind a top tier D. This week however, I expect Tom to have some regression, something he has done in the past after covering by DDs on the road and than going into successive away tilts , as is evident by failing to cover in his L/6 opportunities. Last season the Saints took out the Bucs both times they met them and despite of having  revenge on board, things  are far from automatic vs a Saints team that has proven it knows how to handle Brady and company. It must be noted that the Bucs are just 1-6 ATS L/7 on the road in a double revenge scenario.

The Saints have won SU 8 of their L/9 and have cashed  9 straight  as conference home dogs against  .800 + opponents and are 7-1 ATS L/8 in this series. 

NFL Home teams (NEW ORLEANS) - off a win against a division rival, in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season are 39-14 ATS L/39 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on New Orleans to cover 

Jags were able to move the ball decently in their loss to the Commodores last week and should be able to move the chains again vs a Colts team off a tough grinding game last week vs Houston. 

Jaguars have won seven consecutive home games against the Colts in Duval County.

Jags are 12-1 ATS in this series, including 5-0 ATS the last five games and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation today.

Todays weather is expected to be in the 80s in Jacksonville with high humidity and this will favor the Jags who are more accustomed to this heat than a Colts side that plays their games in a dome. 

Play on Jacksonville to cover 

The Aggies were held to under 200 total yards and 1 offensive touchdown last week in a loss to App State, and after dissecting that game it's obvious this Texas A&M side has alot of vulnerabilities that can be exploited by a team like the Canes. Im betting on Miami Fl , new HC  Mario Cristobal to be  very well prepared here to pull off a possible upset and more importantly as we are concerned a cover. Hurricanes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.

Aggies are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TEXAS A&M) - in a game involving two excellent passing teams (8.3 or more  PYA), after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game are 10-34 ATS L/10 seasons for a  go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Miami Fl to cover 

Huge emotional letdown situation for Texas this week vs UTSA after a heart breaking loss to the Alabama Crimson Tide last week 20-19 -thanks to a late FG by the Tide. Now vulnerable and also with injured starting QB Quinn Ewers out of the lineup the Longhorns are vulnerable to a slow start and subsequent fail as DD home favs vs a UTSA side with a top tier coach at the helm (Jeff Traylor).UTSA is 6-0 ATS  in the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons. Traylor is 7-0 ATS  in road games in the first half of the season as the coach of UTSA.

Play on UTSA to cover 

Marshall came up with a huge upset last week vs Notre Dame and will now be in a huge emotional letdown situation vs a Bowling Green side that deserves some respect getting points as the 6th most experienced team in the country. After some heavy celebrating by the Thundering Herd and their fan base Im betting on their battery being a little depleted here, making them vulnerable to being upset . 

Bowling Green is 4-0 ATS L/4 meetings in this series at home. 

CFB team (BOWLING GREEN) - off an extremely close home loss by 3 points or less, in the first month of the season are 71-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Bowling Green to cover 

Kansas has shown offensive explosiveness and cohesion in their first two games this season scoring 56 and 55 points respectively  both resulting in victories. Meanwhile, Houston has shown some defensive deficiencies allowing 35 and 33 points in their first two games and very much look vulnerable as DD chalk. 

Kansas is 3-0 SU  since 1992 vs Houston! 

Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS) - pathetic team from last season - outscored by opponents by 17 or more points/game are 36-12 ATS L/30 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 31 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored are 32-10 ATS L/30 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Kansas to cover 

Auburns much maligned HC Harisan is much better than many might think, especially early on in campaigns Harsin who is devout chartist is 27-7 in his first four games of the season and Im betting he will be well prepared again. 

Penn State has failed to cover 3 of their L/4 as a non conference road fav of 4 points or less.Franklin is 11-21 ATS  when the total is between 42.5 and 49 as the coach of PENN ST. Penn State is just 2-7 ATS vs the SEC. 

Auburn is 10-2 ATS as home dogs against undefeated opposition like Penn State. 

CFB team (AUBURN) - in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last 3 games, team that had a losing record last season are 34-11 ATS L/30 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB team (PENN ST) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last 3 games are 27-66 ATS L/30 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Auburn to cover 

BYU has victories  against USF and Baylor.  This is a never say die group the Mormons bring on to the field and are not the type of squad that would have partied heavily last week after defeating Baylor in OT. Im betting they wont let that big win make them emotionally vulnerable because their maturity levels are above average as is their talent levels. 

BYU is 6-2 ATS L/8 as road dogs of 8 point or less. Cougars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.Cougars are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games on fieldturf.

Ducks are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up win.Ducks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.Ducks are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games following a ATS win.Ducks are 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.Ducks are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (BYU) - excellent offense from last season - averaged 425 or more total yards/game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 30-9 ATS L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on BYU

Indiana found a way past Illinois last week, but Im not a big believer in this program at the present moment and really like Western Kentucky's passing game which could make like difficult for the Hoosiers secondary that has shown some glaring weaknesses.

 Hilltoppers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in September.Hilltoppers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf. Hilltoppers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.

W KENTUCKY is 13-2 ATS L/15 tilts  as a road underdog of 7 points or less . W KENTUCKY is 30-12 ATS L/32 after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins 

INDIANA is 8-20 ATS L/28  in home games off a home win . INDIANA is 2-11 ATS  when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.

Hoosiers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.Hoosiers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.Hoosiers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.

Play on Western Kentucky to cover 

The upgrades to Denver Broncos football and the so called rebuilding of the Seattle Seahawks has the public hands down backing the visitors tonight. However, in my sometimes contrarian ways Im instead going with the home dog. I know newly acquired Broncos QB  Russell Wilson knows  his former team the Seahawks well, but likewise so do the Seahawks know Wilson well and his mode of operation and his weaknesses. As far as preseason football goes, I was not impressed by the Broncos, and their coaching staff. I really feel their are alot of kinks that need to be ironed out, for this Denver franchise to show the upward momentum expected of them  making getting points with the home side a better deal than many might expect .Carroll is 21-11 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of SEATTLE.Carroll is 50-29 ATS   as an underdog as the coach of SEATTLE.Carroll is 14-5 ATS  in home games in September games as the coach of SEATTLE.

Denver 3-11-1 ATS L/14 Monday nighters.

Monday night chalk in game 1 of the season are just 19-39-1 ATS L/42 seasons.

Play on Seattle to cover  

Off season moves by Jags has  WR Christian Kirk,  in the lineup giving QB Lawrence the best receiver he’s played with in his NFL career and Im betting as long as they both stay healthy they will have a productive on field relationship that will aid the Jags offense greatly . 

Expected QB matchup Wentz vs Lawrence. 

Historical Trends: 

WASHINGTON is 16-36 ATS  in home games in September games since 1992.WASHINGTON is 44-75 ATS  as a home favorite since 1992.

Commanders are 17-35-1 ATS in their last 53 games as a home favorite.Commanders are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.Commanders are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in September.

Jacksonville Jags to cover 

The Panthers will start Baker Mayfield this week against a Cleveland side that will start back up QB  Jacoby Brissett instead of the suspended DeShaun Watson. Im betting Mayfield will want a grain of redemption here to prove to the Browns what they gave up on. Note: Brissett has lost 23 of his 37 NFL starts for a go against 62% conversion rate for bettors.

Bottom line: The Panthers   with a motivated  Baker in the lineup , and 
RB  Christian McCaffrey finally 100%  and an upgraded offensive line and a defense that lead the NFC last season the advantage here today resides with Carolina at home.  Cleveland is just  1-29-1 SU  in season openers since  1999 and are fade material here for me in this opener. 

Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in September.

Play on Carolina to win 

The Baylor Bears had a great season last year winning the Big 12 championship with an upset vs Oklahoma State.  They also beat the Cougars last season by a 38-24 count,  But now BYU will be primed for payback behind a explosive team that is very under rated in my humble opinion. It must also be noted that BYU ranks No. 1 overall and the Bears at No. 126. in returning production. With the home side winning and covering the last three meetings including  a 6-1 ATS record  favoring the Mormons  in their last seven meetings with Big 12 opposition I feel confident in a winning effort by the home side today.Cougars are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Play on BYU 

Virginia Tech is off a loss to lower tier Old Dominion last week by a 20-17 count and are proving my assessments of them correct at this juncture of the season. Vtech lost to Boston last season by a 17-3 count and look incapable of payback .  I know BC blew a lead vs Rutgers last week and lost 22-21, but that will make them all the more hungrier this week in a matchup that favors them getting points. 

CFB team (BOSTON COLLEGE) - off an extremely close home loss by 3 points or less, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses are 33-9 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Boston College to cover 

These teams played a  regular season finale on Thanksgiving weekend last season with West Virginia  barley getting  by  Kansas  with a  34-28 victory  in Lawrence.  Kansas has 9 starters back on offense and 17 returning starters overall while West Virginia only has 4 on defense and 11 total coming back. The experience resides with Kansas and some key trends also support them as underdogs and possible out right winners. CFB Road underdogs  (KANSAS) - team with a below average  scoring defense last season - allowed 35 or more points/game, with 9 or more offensive starters returning have won 19 of their L/27 opportunities SU. Kanas has covered 6 of the L/9 meetings in this series and 3 of their L/4 @ West Virginia.Jayhawks are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Mountaineers are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Play on Kansas to cover 

Alabama's goes into Austin  to take on the Texas Longhorns . Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian was Saban's offensive coordinator for two seasons, so both coaches are not strangers and know their opponent well.   

New Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers, who transferred from Ohio State, passed for 225 yards, two touchdowns and an interception in his first start and is capable of doing some damage here again this week against a top tier defense that is still human in nature. 

Home Field is a big advantage for the Longhorns as a 3 TD underdog. 

From a historical standpoint Texas is 7-1-1 all-time against Alabama with the loss coming in the BCS Championship Game at the end of the 2009 season.

Sarkisian is 16-5 ATS L/21 in home games in September games in all games he has coached since 1992. Sarkisian is 13-4 ATS  in home games in non-conference games in all games he has coached since 1992.

Play on Texas to cover 

Huge emotional  letdown scenario on tap here this week vs Georgia State for the North Carolina Tar Heels as they come off a extremely hard fought victory  against App St in OT by a 65-63 score. Biggest problem for the Tar Heels is a D, that has now surrendered 85 points in two games and once again looks vulnerable here, 

N CAROLINA is 1-9 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Brown is 2-10 ATS in road games off 1 or more straight overs as the coach of N CAROLINA.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (GEORGIA ST) - team that had a winning record last season 103-54 L/30 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (GEORGIA ST) - team that had a winning record last season, in non-conference games are 83-35 ATS L/30 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Georgia State to cover 

Boise State was beaten up on by Oregon state in their first game of the season, and will primed for a redemption minded bounce back effort against a less than strong New Mexico side that they  matchup very well against. In the two most recent meetings in this series the Broncos bashed the Lobos by scores of 37-0 and 42-9, and my projections estimate a rinse and repeat situation is on board for this Friday night. Yes, I know the Lobos clobbered a ugly looking Maine team at home in their opener by a 41-0 count, but the side their facing today is a multiple times better than what they saw last week. Note: New Mexico is just 1-12 ATS when off a 7 or more point win.Lobos are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.Broncos are 7-1 ATS when off an away defeat. Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.

Play on the Boise State Broncos to cover 

The defending Super Bowl Champions the LA Rams host the Buffalo Bills in both sides opening tilt of the regular season this Thursday night. At the time of me releasing this selection the Bills are getting most of the publics support, but head coach Sean McVay and company have proved very competitive out of the gate in the recent past posting a 5-0 SU/ATS record in game 1 of the season and must not be underestimated. Buffalo barley eked out a 35-32 win during the 2020 campaign  at home when these teams played and will be lucky in my opinion to get the job done again vs a top tier side that demands respect from opponents. 

Rams are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 1.Rams are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games in September.

Defending Super Bowl champions are 5-0 ATS as home dogs in the  first six games of the season dating back 42 seasons..

NFL Underdogs or pick (LA RAMS) - good offensive team from last season - scored 24 or more points/game are 43-16 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on LA Rams to cover 

The Brian Kelly era at LSU Im betting will be a difficult one for him  in this ‘neutral field’  opening event at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans vs a Florida State program that looks ready to right the ship . Off course the media is all over LSU and how potent they will be this season . However hold your horses folks as  FSU head coach Mike Norvell  showed momentum late last season  as  the Seminoles won five of their last  eight games,. It was to little to late, but now Im betting on bigger and better things for FSU.  With  QB Jordan Travis, the Louisville transfer, registering a 148.9 Passer rating last season, and back to back  1,000 yards rushing campaigns   this   more experienced FSU crew has an anchor. Note: LSU HC  Kelly is 0-3 ATS in season openers the last three years . Meanwhile, : Norvell is   7-0 ATS the last seven tilts vs non conference opposition. 

Florida State 5-1 ATS L/6 a non conference favs  of 8 points or less. 

Play on Florida State to cover 

North Texas is off a win in their opening game of the season vs UTEP and once again deserve respect vs a SMU team playing without HC Sonny Dykes who went over to coach TCU. This N.Texas  team this season returns eight starters on offense, while featuring  and a under rated D that improved vastly last season compared to the previous season .  The Mean Green are ranked No. 21 overall in Returning Production and deserve respect getting this many points. With this being a revenge situation for N.Texas after suffering losses in this series in three straight seasons Im betting on a motivated effort from the home dog.

SMU is 1-8 ATS in road games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons. Mustangs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

NORTH TEXAS is 10-2 ATS  in home games off a double digit road win since 1992.NORTH TEXAS is 6-0 ATS after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons.Littrell is 6-0 ATS in home games off a road win against a conference rival as the coach of NORTH TEXAS. Mean Green are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.

Mean Green are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.

North Texas to cover 

 New Head coach Billy Napier is a top tier coach and Im betting he actually gets the most out of the rebuild with the Gators and  talent he has on the field this season thanks to a strong coaching staff he brought over from Louisiana  . I know he will face PAC 12 Champs Utah, but according to early season power rankings this SEC home side will be very competitive and the linesmakers agree with me. 

Note: Utah in  one-score tilts the L/5 seasons, are just  1-6 SU on the road and have failed to cover 5 of their L/6 as  non-conference favorites the last four campaigns. Meanwhile,  the Gators are  3-0 ATS run as a home pup,  and have covered their L/3 gridiron battles vs Pac-12 sides .  Add to that  Billy Napier is 7-1 SU/ATS as a dog of 5 or less points and you have what I am recommending as a solid take option getting points. 

Play on Florida to cover 

Miss HC Lane  Kiffin might take a few games to get rolling as he has lost some key production from last year, so a blowout may not come as easily as this line suggests. Here today against a 18 returning  starter the  Bulldogs may find themselves in a closer tilt than anticipated. Note: Kiffin has failed to cover 7 of his L/10 as a non conference chalk of 20 or more points. 

’17 returning starter ’pups in their season openers ,  are  113-84-3 ATS L/.198 opportunities . 

Play on Troy to cover 

 The UCLA Bruins had a decent campaign last season, but Im betting they are over rated despite of some top tier offensive talent returning .According to my projections the Bruins are  getting just a bit to much respect here today against MAC opponents Bowling Green.. The Falcons may not inspire bettors but with the amount of experience they have thanks to playing so many under class-man last season they become dangerous underdogs. Bowling Green coming into this season  as the countries 6th ranked team in Returning Production experience, and  also rank  No. 3 in returning offensive production. . Note:  UCLAs HC Chip Kelly  is a perennial slow starter losing 5 of his first 8 openers SU  and for me is fade material against a under rated opponent. 

Bruins are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 non-conference games.

Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.

Play on the Bowling Green Falcons to cover 

 North Carolina did not look good in their opener vs a lower tier side and were up  just 21-14 with 5 seconds remaining in the first half despite of Florida A&M having 25 ineligible players sidelined. They did win 56-24 but I was very unimpressed.   North Carolina barely made it to a Bowl game last season, and  looked horrendous  in a  38- 21 defeat  as 13-point favs vs  South Carolina  With key personnel now gone   Mack Brown just does not look like he has a solid base for a team to suddenly begin to put wins on the board, especially here on the road against a Appalachian State program that has garnered a 11-1 SU at home record the last 3 seasons and a eye popping  32-3 SU record at home in their L/35 attempts and 21-3 ITS at home the last 4 seasons.  

Brown is 1-10 ATS  in road games off 1 or more straight overs as the coach of N CAROLINA.Brown is 9-26 ATS  after a playing a game where 80 total points or more were scored in all games he has coached since 1992. 

Play on App state to cover 

TCU opens without  head coach Gary Patterson for the first time in 20 seasons. Hes gone and and a new era begins at TCU.   Sonny Dykes, an so called offensive guru with a lack of respect for putting together decent defenses takes over ( At SMU he allowed an average of 430 YPG in four seasons . Thats not a good look for a Horned Frogs side that  ranked 122nd against the run  via 222 RYPG. Dykes is favored here by to many points despite of Colorados recent lack of success. Note: Dykes  has failed to cover 17 of his L/25 as a road favorite , and  3-16 ATS the L/19 trips to the gridiron. Playing in the High altitudes is not an easy proposition for visiting sides, and Im betting the Buffs who are acclimated to the thin air make life difficult for TCU .

TCU is 2-9 ATS in all games over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Colorado to cover 

VTechs new HC  Pry  and Old Dominions HC  Ricky Rahne,  served under James Franklin at both Vanderbilt and Penn State, where they were dueling coordinators. Needless to say they know each other well and competitiveness should be on this agenda. 

Its also interesting to note that the last time Old Dominion played  hosts to  a Power 5 program was back in 2018 . That game saw the Monarchs take out the  Hokies by  49-35 count  as 29-point home underdogs.

With 17 starters back, including 10 on offense, plus an array of transfers from Power 5 schools Old Dominion Im betting will be more competitive than the pundits might think vs a Virginia Tech squad that was just 6-7 last season and still trying to gauge how to win regularly. 

NCAAF Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (OLD DOMINION) - good passing team from last season - had a completion pct of 58% or better, in non-conference games are 83-42 ATS L/30 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Old Dominion to cover 

HC Browns needs to get his team off on the proverbial right foot here tonight as West Virginia starts this season on the road vs  a Pittsburgh side that finds itself starting this campaign without NFL draftee QB Kenny Pickett  and top tier WR Jordan Addison who took the transfer portal option and went out to USC.

Im betting QB Daniels who previously was under center at USC and Georgia  will have an advantage here today and get us the cover and possible outright victory. 

West Virginia is  9-3 SU/ATS  and including 5-1 SUATS as underdogs. Meanwhile, Pitt has recorded a 1-6 SU L/7  record against Big 12 opponents. 

Mountaineers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games in September.Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Play on West Virginia to cover 

Charlotte brings back some experience from last season -ranking 19th in the nation in returning experience. Considering Charlotte has revenge on board for a humiliating loss last year to the Owls you can bet this group will primed for payback . With that said Im betting on QB Chris Reynolds and his experienced offensive group to stay in this game against FAU and possibly win the tilt outright. 

FLA ATLANTIC is 3-13 ATS L/16 as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points . FLA ATLANTIC is 7-18 ATS L/25 as a home favorite of 7 points or less. 

NCAAF Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CHARLOTTE) - terrible defense from last season - allowed 425 or more total yards/game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning, in the first two weeks of the season are 41-15 ATS L/30 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Charlotte to cover 

Wyoming  returns just 4 starers on each side of the ball and is expected to have a sub par season in the Mountain West Conference. Note: Wyoming ranks 129 out of 131 teams in terms of returning production. Meanwhile, Illinois is up trending- behind HC Bret Bielema who has 13 starters back in Champaign. I know the Illini did not have a strong season last year, but Im betting they start this season off with a big bang effort behind new OC Barry Lunney Jr. who comes over with his successes from UTSA. 

 Bielema is 13-0 SU in home openers in his college head-coaching career.  Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big Ten.

Fighting Illini are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

Play on Illinois to cover 

Game to played on a neutral Field in Dublin, Ireland . 

Nebraska's Scott Frost returns  12 starters   from a 3-9 SU  team from last season and are being vastly over rated against a Northwestern side that had a atrocious season in 2021. Meanwhile, the Wildcats bring back 14 starters, and will be primed and very motivated  to stay competitive after last seasons nasty 56-7 beatdown at the hands of the Corn huskers. 

Cornhuskers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Play on Northwestern to cover 

The Bengals have covered seven straight games  entering this  Super Bowl game vs the LA Rams. Key Bengals component QB Joe Burrow is 12-4 ATS vs. above .500 opponents, making him the most profitable QB in NFL since he was drafted No. 1 overall in 2020.  This kid is  as cold as ice, and is not intimidated by the spot light of big games , as the Heisman Trophy winner has a CFB national championship under his belt and key NFL play off victories . Burrows is   (13-2-1 ATS in his NFL career as  +2.5 dog  or more points) 

Bengals HC Taylor is 12-7 SUATS in games when the Bengals own a .500 or greater record, including 6-1 ATS as an away dog. 

NFL Super Bowl teams  like the Bengals coming off a win as an underdog of more than three points are 11-3-1 ATS dating back 42 seasons. 

Cincinnati has taken on  9 playoff squads this season, going 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS. 

 Teams like the Bengals  with the lower win percentage are 11-4 SU and 14-1 ATS in the last 15 Super Bowls . 

From a overall perspective my data suggests that this game could easily be won by a FG or less, but when the money is down, Ill key on Burrows as the savior and ultimate profit maker for us today. 

   The Rams QB  Matthew Stafford entered this season 23-57 (28.85) SU in his career vs. teams above .500 and even though he is at home, is not a viable favorite according to my projections considering his streaky history.