Ole Miss might not get a lot of respect from bettors this week, as they have now lost 5 of their L/6 overall, including a 38-37 loss to Arkansas last time out, but according to my power rankings and cross reference matchup stats, the Rebs actually matchup well against this type of opponent. Meanwhile, Kentucky is off an emotional win vs long time nemesis Tennessee last week, and could easily be in a letdown state coming into this tilt vs a hungry opponent. It must also be noted that despite of their 6 wins the Wildcats have been out  yarded by 106 ypg in their L/3 games and are a very over rated team at the moment.

KENTUCKY is 0-7 ATS  L/7 after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games losing SU by just under 20 ppg. OLE MISS is 10-2 ATS  L/12  in road games off an upset loss as a home favorite.  In KENTUCKY's L/24 in home games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging  6.25  or more yards/play they have been outscored by a 43 to 22.8 average score. HC Stoops of Kentucky  is 0-7 ATS  L/7  in home games after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse .

CFB Home favorites like Kentucky - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games are 11-33 ATS L/25 seasons for  a 75% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Ole Miss Rebels to cover 1 unit reg selection

Iowa State is the real deal, behind one of the better defenses in the Big 12 as they proved last week in a win vs ranked TCU by a 14-7 count as 7 point home dogs. They also proved a lot to me in that  tilt, and I'm betting they still have enough fuel in the tank to slow West Virginia down this week.  Meanwhile, W.Virginia  despite a explosive offense are a team that lacks a solid defense, and has allowed 34, 31, 35, 36, and 50 points in their L/5 games and according to my own projections Iowa State will have a similar plus offensive out put here, which gives them a great chance  for a SU upset considering how staunch their D has been.

IOWA ST is 8-1 ATS  L/9 vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att  dating back to last season.IOWA ST is 12-3 ATS  L/15 after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers .W VIRGINIA is 2-12 ATS  L/14 after allowing 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games.

CFB team like West Virginia  - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games are 8-35 ATS L/5 seasons or a go against conversion rate of 82% for bettors.

CFB road team like Iowa State  - after going under the total by more than 14 points in two consecutive games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 51-18 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Iowa State Cyclones to cover

Old Dominions defense is atrocious having allowed 53,38,58,35,35, 35 points respectively which makes them weak DD favorites. I know Charlotte may not inspire bettors, but CFB  home team vs. the money line Old Dominion - off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 13-40 SU, for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.( lost a heart breaker N.Texas by a 45-38 count and are now in a letdown scenario)

OLD DOMINION is 4-14 ATS L/18 after allowing 37 points or more last game .

Penn States undefeated season came crashing down last week in the worst possible way, as they fell apart late and lost to Ohio State 39-38. I know a lot of pundits expect them now to come out very upset and ready to fire on all cylinders, but its never easy to get up off the proverbial matt after being body slammed and having the wind taking out you. Now in an emotional letdown scenario I expect a strong Michigan State defense to make life hard on the Lions in this spot. It must also be noted that the Spartans will also be in a big time revenge mode for being destroyed by Penn State last season by a 45-12 count. (Mich State is 9-1 SU L/10 and  11-1 ATS L/12 in Big 10 revenge tilts)

PENN ST is 2-12 ATS  L/14  in road games versus excellent defensive teams - allowing  285 or less yards/game .PENN ST is 0-7 ATS  L/7 after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses and is 0-6 ATS  L/6  off a road loss.MICHIGAN ST is 7-0 ATS L/7  in home games in the second half of the season during the last few seasons.

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Penn State  - off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 12-38 ATS on the rebound for a go against conversion rate of 76% for bettors dating back 25 seasons.

Play on the Michigan State Spartans to cover 1 unit reg selection

Texas Tech enters this game against a very competitive Kansas St football program having lost 4 of their L/5 and  3 straight games by double digit deficits , and in my opinion from the out set of this season have been over rated by the prognosticators. Meanwhile, Bill Snyder's well coached group must be respected, and after resting a lot of starters last week in a win vs instate Rivals Kansas, will now be primed to play a top tier brand of physical football. Take the points.

KC HC Snyder is 31-19 ATS L/50 versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 or more  yards/game.

CFB road team like KState - after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game against opponent after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are 92-42 ATS during the L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Kansas State to cover 1 unit reg selection

Mississippi State is off one of their biggest wins of the campaign last week on the road, against Texas A&M and will now be in a letdown situation and in  a double jeopardy look ahead scenario as they prepare to play Alabama next week.  The goal of Miss State , is to stay healthy for their big game, and I'm betting they play down to their competition this week, while subbing in a lot of backups. Also UMass has suddenly come to life,  winning two straight while compiling 1619 yards of offense in their L/3 games overall while averaging 38.3 ppg, and are a viable cover group in this spot considering the circumstances. I'm betting on Umass moving to 7-0 ATS L/7 vs SEC sides.

Play on UMass to cover 1 unit reg selection

Indiana coach Tom Allen knows know exactly what's coming his way this Saturday when his Indiana Hoosiers go against the fourth-ranked Wisconsin . QUOTE:
"They have just a stable of running backs," Allen said. "They keep rotating them in and pound you, pound you, pound you and try to beat you into submission in the course of the game. It's three tight ends at times and two tight ends most of the time, I-formation, and hunker right at you. END QUOTE:

That's exactly the recipe for success Wisconsin will use once again  this week  vs Indiana.

I know Illinois look disinterested last week in a sleepy win vs Illinois, but now after that short snooze and the season winding down and the possibility of play off spot ,you can  bet they will be awake and ready to make  a statement  vs a Indiana side that not built to withstand the physical pounding they are going to take today behind a D, that has allowed only 12.9 ppg game.

Wisconsin has owned this Indiana football program in the recent past winning 7 straight times by an average score of 58-14 and I am betting on  a repeat performance is on today's agenda.

WISCONSIN is 6-0 ATS L/6 in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 winning by an average of 18.2 ppg.

CFB Road favorites Wisconsin - after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 37 points or more last game are 51-13 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors over the L/10 seasons.

Play on Wisconsin to cover 1 unit reg selection

Marshall  after a nice run that saw them winning 5 straight games  behind a nasty D that allowed a total of 37 points ( 7.4 ppg) , looked asleep at the proverbial wheel last week at home in a loss to Florida International. Now wide awake after that embarrassment I expect they will be ready to respond in a big way vs Lane  Kiffins high flying Florida Atlantic football program  a side in a letdown situation after taking a big win against Western Kentucky last week by scoring 22 points in the 4th quarter for a 42-28 win.

Marshall is 4-0 SU L/4 meetings in this series, and I'm betting they cover and possibly pull off a su upset here.

MARSHALL is 9-1 ATS L/10 in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less yards per return .FLA ATLANTIC is 0-9 ATS  in home games off 2 or more consecutive overs. FLA ATLANTIC is 9-22 ATS L/31 as a home favorite and 1-12 ATS L/13.

Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MARSHALL) - in conference games, off a upset loss as a double digit home favorite are 47-17 ATS L/25 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Marshall to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Tonight Navy enters this game against Temple in a nasty mood after two straight hard fought losses derailed their undefeated season. Add to that revenge for a loss to Temple last year in the ACC title game  and you have a Navy side that will be dangerous and merciless. It must be noted that this is not the same smash mouth Temple football program of the last few seasons, under new HC Cosby and  despite of being feisty and well rested off a bye I'm betting  they won't have big enough gonads to stop their fire breathing opponent in this spot. 

Temple when off a bye is 1-9 ATS L/10 SU/ATS vs a conference team looking for revenge. Navy is 5-0 ATS on the road this season.

CFB Road favorites like Navy - excellent rushing team (4.8 or more YPR) against a poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR), in conference games are 66-26 ATS L/10 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Temple - after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in weeks 10 through 13 are just 6-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Navy to cover 1 unit reg selection

Northern Illinois and Toledo arguably the two best teams in the MAC will go head to head this Thursday night in the Glass Bowl. Toledo has been on a roll of late winning and covering three straight, but their biggest weakness remains their defense, which was evident when they allowed Tulsa and Miami Fl 52 and 51 points respectively  and I'm betting the Huskies do some damage here this week via a balanced attack, while their own staunch D that allows just 18 ppg, will slow the Rockets explosive offense enough to keep them within striking distance of outright upset here this evening.  It must also be noted that NIU is 27-3 SU and 25-5 ATS L/30 on the road in MAC battles and the series visitor has not failed to cover in the L/6 confrontations. It must also be noted NIU is 15-1 SU and 16-0 ATS on the road vs a side off a win like the Rockets are and a perfect 5-0 ATS L/5  away  facing a team on a 3-0 SU/ATS run.

N ILLINOIS is 7-0 ATS  L/7 versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.75 or more  rushing yards/carry.

CFB Home favorites like Toledo - in conference games, with 5 offensive starters returning are a long term bad bet going just 61-141 ATS  L/5 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Northern Illinois Huskies to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Detroit Lions are very well rested and coming off their bye week as they prepare to face the  Pittsburgh Steelers at Ford Field on Sunday night. The Lions really showed me something before their bye , never giving up and almost coming back from huge DD deficit against the Saints in New Orleans. They looked tanked in that game early on , like I expected them to be, but somehow they found the energy to make a game of it,  in never say die fashion which was impressive to say the least. That tells me something about this team and I'm going to back them here tonight getting points. I know the Steelers are a fine team, but no team is infallible in the new NFL, as was the case when their stud veteran QB Roethlisberger’s threw five-interceptions in a 30-9 loss to Jacksonville, three weeks ago. Yes, I also know Matt Stafford the Lions QB , has not performed all that well of late, but with some rest I expect the gifted QB to be at his best in this spot and get us the cover even though he will only have one key downfield  target in Marvin Jones as  WR Golden Tate is dealing with a shoulder injury . Take the points.

Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week.Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.

NFL Home teams like the Lions  - off 1 or more straight overs, a good offensive team (23-27 PPG) against a good defensive team (14-18 PPG) are 33-11 ATS L/10 L/10 years, for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 like the Lions - a good offensive team (23-27 PPG) against a good defensive team (14-18 PPG), after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 25-6  L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Detroit Lions to cover 1 unit reg selection

The New England Pats enter this game off a hugely emotional win vs the Atlanta falcons last week, and will be in a letdown situation this week, vs a Chargers team that I feel is starting to peak and show a lot of promise as was evident last week in a 21-0 victory over Denver, which was their third straight victory. The Chargers in their 7 games this season, have been very competitive and have lost only one game by more than 7 points and that was to KC.  Today I expect they will once again stay within striking distance of the Pats and get us the cover.

LA CHARGERS is 8-1 ATS  L/9  in road games vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game LA CHARGERS is 6-0 ATS  L/6 in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better and  6-0 ATS  L/6  in road games against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game on the season.

Road teams like the LA Chargers  - mistake-free team (1.25 TO/game committed or less ) against a team with  1.25 TO/game forced or less, after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 38-16 during the L/34 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Chargers to cover 1 unit reg selection

Last week the Oakland Raiders pulled off an miraculous upset vs the KC Chiefs with under a minute left on the clock and will now be in a huge emotional letdown situation. What was surprising was how badly the raiders had been playing previous to this as was evident by losing 4 straight games, and how average they looked all night before the big play got them a victory. I'm betting they fall back into a state of mediocrity here, vs a Buffalo side that has won 3 of their L/4 games, what has been a solid overall defense, that before last week had not allowed more than 20 points allowing an average of 14.8 ppg in 5 games. I'm betting on the Bills D once again to be the catalyst behind a win and cover in this spot.

OAKLAND is 0-8 ATS  L/8 off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog .

Favorites like Buffalo - after scoring 30 points or more last game against opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 34-13 ATS over the L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Buffalo Bills to cover 1 unit reg selection

San Diego State after staring 6-0 this season, have fell on hard times thanks to becoming easy to read as they just consistently pass the ball to RB Rashaad Penny. Now they go against a Hawaii side that owns the No#.128 ranked pass efficiency D in the nation , and I expect the Aztecs will finally open up the play book and start looking downfield for bigger gains  and a much larger point production output. I also expect their own D, to stand tall here and give the one way passing game of the Hawaii Warriors some huge problems in what I'm betting will be a conclusive win.

San Diego State has owned Hawaii in the past going `18-3 ATS L/21 meetings and smashed them last season 55-0. I know the Warriors are off a bye week, but they are just 1-6 ATS with rest L/7 and are over matched by a superior team that needs a win badly and that's not a good omen for them getting any kind of revenge here tonight in paradise island.

SAN DIEGO ST is 10-1 ATS  L/11 when playing against a team with a losing record with the average margin of victory ringing in at 28.1 ppg and they are a perfect 7-0 ATS  L/7  in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better winning by an average of 27.7 ppg. HAWAII is 1-12 ATS  L/13 after playing 3 straight conference games. 

Play on the San Diego State Aztecs to cover 1 unit reg selection  

Kentucky enters this game against downtrodden Tennessee off a demoralizing loss vs Mississippi St last week by a 45-7 count. These young men are not like pros and don't easily get up off the matt when slapped around in that type of fashion, and a hangover performance by the Wildcats will I'm betting  be the theme  here this Saturday. Meanwhile, on the flipside, I really don't think that Tennessee is as bad as the pundits think they are. Yes, they got beaten up on by Alabama last week and Georgia 3 weeks again in ugly fashion, but a lot of other teams who get respect were also stepped all over by these top tier SEC teams. Prior to the Alabama game Tennessee stood tall vs South Carolina losing a 15-9 heart breaker that they had chances to win, and must not be underestimated vs a slightly over rated Kentucky football program that the Volunteers have virtually owned over the years. This is actually a game that Tennessee can with SU, and I think the team as a whole knows it and needing a win  badly ,  will play with fire this week in what I expect will be a cover.

In the last 20 games in this series, Tennessee has won 19 of 20 meetings SU with the lone loss coming by a 10-7 score back in 2011 at Kentucky.

TENNESSEE is 30-16 ATS L/46  in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better like KU.KENTUCKY is 0-6 ATS  L/6 after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games.

Wildcats are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.Wildcats are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss.Wildcats are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Volunteers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Kentucky.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Tennessee - lower tier  team - outgained by their opponents by 75 or more yards/game, after gaining 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games are actually good long term bets going 34-12 ATS over the L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tennessee to cover 1 unit reg selection

This is a tilt, where my own power ranking systems suggest and outright win by the visitor (New Mexico) vs an over rated side ( WYOMING).  ( Linesmakers agree with my assessments, as does early sharp money) The Lobos run heavy  style of play very much matches up well against a Cowboys team struggling to score. Ball control and clock consumption, are the keys here for New Mexico who took a played a very good Colorado State football program close last week losing 27-24 covering as 10 point home dogs. Last season, Wyoming was clobbered by the Lobos (56-35), and despite of a revenge scenario being in play are just not built to be successfully against this type of team. I'll ring the bell here and expect the visitors to win and cover.

NEW MEXICO is 26-11 ATS  L/37 versus poor rushing teams - averaging 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry .

CFB Home underdogs like Wyoming - poor offensive team (4.2 to 4.8 YPP) against an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) after 7+ games, after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game are just 11-35 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB road team like New Mexico- excellent rushing team ( 4.8 YPR or more) against a poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR), after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game are 41-14 ATS over the L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the New Mexico Lobos to cover 1 unit reg selection

I am finally a believer in Miss State ,  after last weeks non empathetic DD beat down at home of Kentucky. The Bulldogs only two losses have come to Auburn and Georgia who I consider as two of the top three teams in the SEC. Texas A&M is no where near the level of those  teams according to my power rankings despite of recent wins/covers.  Meanwhile, Miss State now in a upward trajectory and currently  playing with a great deal of confidence and now forming into top gear look very capable of taking out a Texas A&M squad that has a history of not performing well off a bye week as HC Sumlins 2-9 ATS record with rest would indicate.

MISSISSIPPI ST is 14-2 ATS L/16 after playing a game at home. MISSISSIPPI ST is 6-0 ATS L/6 after a cover as a double digit favorite .TEXAS A&M is 1-9 ATS  after being outrushed by 125 or more yards in 2 straight games.TEXAS A&M is 0-6 ATS L/6 after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game.TEXAS A&M is 0-7 ATS L/7 in the second half of the season dating back to last season and have a negative long term ATS history in the second half of the season going 9-23 ATS L/31.

TEXAS A&M is 9-23 ATS L/32 versus excellent rushing teams - averaging  5.25 or more rushing yards/carry.

 CFB road team like Miss State  - after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games against opponent after being outrushed by 150 or more yards in 2 straight games are a bankroll expanding 23-2 ATS dating back 10 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors.

Mississippi State to cover 1 unit reg selection  

These teams are dead even in the Big 10 with 1-3 records and 4-3 records overall. The difference maker is that PJ Flecks Gophers are the superior defensive side. That's not a good omen for a Iowa side with the 126 ranked red zone offense in the nation. It must also be noted that Minnesota has not failed to cover in their L/15 attempts as Big 10 road dogs of 4 points or more and that HC Fleck is 13-3-1 ATS in his L/15 roadies vs.500 or better opposition. With revenge on board for their only home defeat last season to the Hawkeyes, I'm betting their motivation and energy will also be a deciding factor vs a side that many not have to ability to challenge them effectively after losing a heart breaker in OT last week to Northwestern.

MINNESOTA is 7-0 ATS L/7 in road games after playing 2 straight conference games .

CFB favorites playing as hosts like Iowa off one loss- exact  in OT  are 3-15 ATS L/18 when facing a winning avenging opponent like Minnesota.

CFB Home favorites like Iowa - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning record on the season are 36-74 ATS for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Minnesota to cover 1 unit reg selection

Oregon and Utah are both teams trying to come out of slumps . Both have lost 3 straight. Both are desperate for a win, and I'm betting we are in for a close one here, with the points In my betting opinion ending up being golden . Look for Ducks super star RB Royce Clayton and the Ducks home field crowd energy to lead them to cover and be the difference maker . It must be noted that in the past the Ducks when on a 0-3 SU/ATS run have gone a perfect 5-0 ATS vs a side off  consecutive losses and repeat and rinse of this historical precedent is on Saturdays agenda. Also HC Whittingham of Utah is just 1-6 ATS L/7 off consecutive losses. Also for a league wide CFB historical data base: CFB  home team vs. the money line like Oregon - off 2 consecutive road losses, with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent are 26-4 SU L/10 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Oregon Ducks to cover 1 unit reg selection

UMass has been playing some decent ball of late, and been putting a boatload of points (50x2) on the board, as was the case in recent back to back games against Ohio and in their first win of the season last week vs a weaker than expected Georgia Southern program. Despite of that, I just don't believe that these young men are quite ready to take down, a Appalachian State football program that knows how to win , and I will be fading UMass in this spot as +3 point home dogs. Remember this is a Minutemen side that has lost to Coastal Carolina, struggling Old Dominion and inconsistent Hawaii this season. Also thanks to the Minutemen recent surprising offensive explosiveness will have the full attention of a Mountaineers side  that has only two losses this season vs Georgia and Wake Forest by 1 point, which diminishes Umass chances at catching their  opponent napping, and  for a upset under dog win/cover.

APPALACHIAN ST is 8-1 ATS  L/9 versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 or more  yards/game.

Mountaineers are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 road games.Minutemen are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games.

CFB Underdogs of  3-3.5 to 10 points like Mass- after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games against opponent after having won 3 out of their last 4 games are 28-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Appalachian St to cover 1 unit reg selection  

Air Force for the most part has been a very competitive team with a explosive offense all season long, and must not be underestimated here in this spot vs a strong looking Colorado State football program . The Falcons took San Diego State and Navy down to the wire, teams that my own power rankings suggest are similar to Colorado States and are off conclusive back to back wins vs UNLV and Nevada. The Falcons did not even look out of place vs power 5 side Michigan losing 29-13 and staying close almost till the end. So as far as today is concerned I'm betting we have good value taking the points here with a team, that can run and gun with the best of teams, and capable of beating you SU or via the back door cover.

Air Force HC Calhoun is 13-5 ATS L/18 when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 75% or better)  Air Force 25.1 Opponent 29.3.

CFB Road underdogs like Air Force - in a game involving two excellent rushing teams (4.8 YPR or more), after gaining 6 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 81-34 ATS the L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Air Force to cover 1 unit reg selection

Both these sides could easily be college football poster boys for futility , with 1-7 records. But according to my own cross reference rankings, San Jose State has recently shown more of an upward trajectory than BYU , and more all overall improvement, giving a decent Fresno State program a run for their money covering in a 27-10 loss, and playing decently in Hawaii losing 37-26 as 17 point dogs. Today I'm betting this young group will once again stay close enough for a cover or pull off the SU upset vs a BYU side that should not be a -13.5 point favorite vs anyone in the FBS. Take the points.

SAN JOSE ST is 28-12 ATS  L/40 when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. 25% or less).BYU is 2-10 ATS  L/12 in home games versus terrible rushing defenses - allowing  230 or more rushing yards/game.BYU is 0-8 ATS  L/8 in all lined games this season.BYU is 2-11 ATS  L/13  in home games after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games.

CFB Road underdogs like SJ State- poor rushing team (100-140 RY/G) against an average rushing defense (140-190 RY/G) after 7+ games, in non-conference games are 44-12 ATS dating back 25 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on San Jose State to cover 1 unit reg selection

Last week Virginia fell asleep at the proverbial wheel and got crushed by Boston College ending an impressive 4 game winning run. Actually BC has been surprisingly offensively explosive, behind an already staunch D,  so I'm not being to hard on Virginia. Actually I expect the Cavaliers will bounce back this week, and cover and possibly spring the upset vs a Panthers side they matchup very well against, especially from a coaching perspective behind Bronco Mendenhall who I have a great deal of respect for. Meanwhile, HC Narduzzi is 4-12 ATS  L/16 in home games, has in my opinion mishandled a pretty good looking ( at least on paper) Panthers side. with that said,  I'm fading Pittsburgh here at home as favorites.

Cavaliers are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a double-digit loss at home.Cavaliers are 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 road gamesPanthers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Panthers are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 home games.

PITTSBURGH is 0-7 ATS  L/7  in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game.

CFB home team like Pittsburgh  - after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games against opponent after having won 3 out of their last 4 games are 21-54 ATS over the L/5 seasons for a go against  conversion rate of 72% for bettors.

Play on Virginia to cover 1 unit reg selection

Tulsa is one very inconsistent team. There is a load of offensive talent, a lack of concentration , and a coaching staff that seems to be at the mercy of a group of young men who can come out and rock a stadium with explosive play or put you to sleep with a less than motivated performance. A few examples of this were, on display in Toledo earlier this season in the Glass Bowl against one of the MACs best teams the Rockets, taking part in a 54-51 blockbuster , almost pulling off the upset, and than in Houston taking out a decent Cougars side by a 45-17 count as DD dogs. Note:( SMU loss to Houston 35-22 in their meeting with them.) Two other tilts saw the young men from Tulsa play New Mexico and Navy very tough, losing close hard fought affairs, and than unexpected down games like their 20-14 loss at UConn last week as 6 point favorites. Now today, I expect this under rated Tulsa side, to make a game of their confrontation with SMU this week. It must be noted that Tulsa is  6-0 ATS  L/6  in road games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/games like SMU,  while the Mustangs are just   4-15 ATS  L/19 in home games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 450 or more yards/game.

TULSA is 8-1 ATS  L/9 in road games in the second half of the season over the last few seasons.

Meanwhile, SMU is off  hard fought 31-28 victory vs the Cincinnati bearcats last week, and now starting to show some chinks and their armour and maybe some fatigue as the season drags on, which is not a good omen against what can be a very high octane Canes side when their attention span is focused, as I'm betting it will be here.  SMU is 2-12 ATS  after a win by 3 or less points .

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Tulsa - off 1 or more consecutive unders, with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 35 or more points/game are a long term good bet going 70-36 ATS for a 66% conversion rate over the L/10 seasons.

Play on Tulsa to cover 1 unit reg selection

Let me start off by saying I was never a big fan of Jay Cutler, and was not impressed by the Fins off season signing of him. While you never like to see a player injured, I must say that this injury to Cutler is a blessing in disguise for Miami, as I believe they will do much better with Matt Moore under center. Last week Moore engineered a 17 point 4th quarter comeback, and navigated his team to a win vs the NY Jets. You know, Moore is no bum, when it comes to delivering cash to his bakers he's s stud QB as his 20-9 ATS overall record would indicate including a 10-4 ATS record in away tilts. Tonight the Dolphins go up against a less than reliable favorite with a ton of issues that continues to surrender yards and points in large chunks. This version of the Ravens thanks to injuries, QB Flacccos inconsistencies (or both) and just bad coaching, is not up to par with past incarnations of the franchise and should not be mistaken as such. This is not the Ray Lewis era, its far different and as of right now does not deserve our respect on this suspect line.

BALTIMORE is 1-8 ATS  L/9 off 1 or more straight overs.

Harbaugh is 12-22 ATS  L/33 in October games, with the them and their opponents virtually tied in point production.

Ravens have lost 4 of their L/5 overall!

Dolphins QB Moore is 6-0 ATS against opposition with a .400 or better records  off consecutive SU/ATS losses.

NFL Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 like Baltimore - with a poor offense - averaging 285 or less total yards/game are 16-37 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 70% for bettors.

Play on the Miami Dolphins to cover 1 unit reg selection

Eastern Michigan has played some great defensive ball all season long, and have remained competitive on a consistent basis despite of their current 5 game losing streak. Their games have been grueling and exhausting, but the one that might have broke the camels back was last weeks hard fought 20-17 loss to Western Michigan in OT.  That was truly heart breaking and you could feel the energy just completely sucked out of this young group as they stood on the sidelines after the game. Now in a huge letdown situation they go up against a torrid D, that might even be better than theirs , and a balanced Northern Illinois  Huskies offense, that is very much better their own. Lay the lumber with the Huskies.

N ILLINOIS is 10-1 ATS  L/11 after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game and 6-0 ATS  L/6 after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game and beginning to roll after a 48-17 beat-down of Bowling Green last week.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like E.Mich - after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games against opponent after having won 3 out of their last 4 games are 5-28 ATS over the L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Northern Illinois to cover 1 unit reg selection

The New England Patriots looked like they had lost last years Super Bowl before they  pulled off the greatest comeback in the history of the NFL and left the Atlanta Falcons and their fans in shock with a unlikely 34-28  victory. At one point in the 3rd quarter Atlanta was up 28-3 before the Pats woke up and decided to thrash their opponents. Now the word REVENGE is making the rounds , as Atlanta fans and their betting backers bet on this scenario playing out. However, with said, it must be noted in life that you don't always get what you want. You have to remember, that New England has won 5 championships, and are probably the best coached team in football with Belichick at the helm, and arguably the best money QB in the game Tom Brady. These guys are as big as life, and whether they show it or not are ego driven, and will not take kindly to the Falcons wanting to come here and show the world that they are the better team, and last years loss was an anomaly. Instead I expect the Pats will primed to hand out another spanking, this time taking no chances and playing a complete focused game, which is not a good omen for a Falcons side that has shown big gaps in concentration over the last few seasons, despite of their top tier talent levels.

Atlanta 's HC Quinn is 4-13 ATS  L/17 vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better.Belichick is 38-16 ATS  L/54 versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6  or more yards/play winning on average by over a TD.NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 ATS  L/7 versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6 or more  yards/play.

NEW ENGLAND is 10-0 ATS L/17 after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games.

The Patriots are 15-0 ATS /SU  covering by over 14.8 ppg on turf vs non-divisional opponent that is averaging 13+ passing first downs per game, including last season's super bowl vs the Atlanta  Falcons.

Play on the New England Patriots to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Pittsburgh Steelers are off a hard fought win vs the KC Chiefs last week, as they derailed the Chiefs undefeated season. Now in a letdown spot, vs the Cincinnati Bengals I'm betting they won't easily get by a well rested Bengals side off a bye week. It must be noted that the Bengals are 8-0 ATS L/8 after a bye week when facing a division foe with an above .500 record like the Steelers . Meanwhile, the Steelers are an ugly 1-5 ATS as chalk  against a rested side with a below .500 record and 1-5 ATS as a home favorite after a victory as a dog and Big Ben Roethlisberger is also 1-5 ATS L/6 after a SU underdog win in his career. It must also be noted that in my most recent power ranking projections that I consider the Bengals to be the most under rated team in the NFL at the moment and other than their opening loss have been extremely competitive.

CINCINNATI is 6-0 ATS  L/6 in road games after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games.HC  Tomlin of the Steelers  is 2-10 ATS  L/12 off 4 or more consecutive unders

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like the Steelers  - in a game involving two average teams (plus/minus  3 PPG differential.), after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game are just 18-45 ATS over the L/24 seasons.

Play on the Cincinnati Bengals to cover 1 unit reg selection

A lot of pundits believe that San Diego State will easily bounce back from last weeks surprising loss to Boise State ( 31-14) as their perfect season crashed and burned. But , hold your horses, I'm betting getting out of here vs a fast improving Fresno State football program will not come easily. Former California HC Tedford has really got the Bulldogs rocking winning 4 of 6 games with the losses coming to highly rated Alabama and Washington. Considering Fresno State has a top tier history of doing well with conference revenge failing to cover only once in their L/11 tries, it won't be a hard decision to back them here on the road in a key game getting  TD plus. ( Last year SDSt beat Fresno State 17-3).

SAN DIEGO ST is 11-24 ATS L/35 in home games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season .FRESNO ST is 9-0 ATS L/9 after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers .FRESNO ST is 12-4 ATS L/16 in all lined games.

Play on Fresno State to cover 1 unit reg selection

Wyoming after losing 2 of their first three games  to begin their season have won three straight games SU/ATS, and are finally starting to perform up to expectations behind stud QB, Joh Allen who is still not in top form , but  ready to explode at any time. However, Wyoming is ranked tied for first in Red Zone offense,  and should do much better than San Diego State did last week vs Boise State . The Broncos surprised a lot of pundits last week, by beating SD State, but the truth is the Aztecs are starting to become easier to read as the season has gone on, as they just continually hand the ball to Rashad Penney . With that said, and now in a letdown scenario after their upset win, I'm betting the Broncos will have a hard time getting up for this tilt despite of being in revenge mode for a 30-28 loss at Larime last season.  

WYOMING is 8-1 ATS  L/9 vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last few seasons.BOISE ST is 0-8 ATS  L/8 as a home favorite and is 0-8 ATS  L/8 in home games after playing a conference game .

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points like Wyoming  - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 28-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Wyoming to cover 1 unit reg selection

Both these football programs  have been playing good ball of late, as Arizona is off back to back upsets of Colorado and defensively deficient UCLA, while California is off a 37-3 beat down of formerly undefeated Washington State. It's been California's D, that has them turned around this season, and Arizona's explosive offense that made them so dangerous. So in a game I have tabbed for D vs Offense, I'm betting on the D coming out on top and helping us get the  cover.  It must also be noted that California is 13-1 ATS L/14 in this series as dogs, and once again look like loveable pups in this spot at home in Berkeley.

ARIZONA is 0-6 ATS  L/6 in road games off 2 or more consecutive overs and 0-7 ATS  L/7  in road games after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored. Arizona's HC Rodriguez is 2-16 ATS  L/18 after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games and is 1-8 L/9 ATS   after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread.

California opened as the favorite here before the line was pushed back the other way favoring Arizona. The guys who work the other side of the counters in Vegas have some sharp minds, and despite of some early smart money coming in on Arizona I'm siding with the boys who make a living helping build Vegas in this spot.  The line ORIGINALLY OPENED  this way most probably because of some interesting long term trends that show , a CFB home team vs. the money line like California  - off an upset win by 10 points or more as a home underdog, in October games are 43-14 in the follow up for a 75% conversion rate for SU bettors and also that a home team vs. the money line like the Bears- off an upset win by 10 points or more as a home underdog, in weeks 5 through 9 are 46-14 for a 77% conversion rate for bettors dating back 25 seasons.

Play on the California Golden Bears to cover 1 unit reg selection

Michigan enters this game ranked No.1 in the nation in defense, and are giving up just 14.7 ppg. Granted they have a horrendous time moving the ball downfield, but if they get can Karan Higdon, going downhill today I'm betting we have an extroidnary chance at covering . Last week he had 200 plus yards and looks like he is shifting into top gear just when Harbaugh and company will need it most. I know Penn State looks like the team to beat in the Big 10, but despite of Michigan inconsistencies this season, must be respected as HC Harbaugh is 7-1 in his career vs undefeated opposition with the only loss coming by 4 points. Penn State has a bye week , but being well rested may become a secondary concern, as the offense may find themselves rusty against a nasty D, that will be out to hand out some big time pain this week.

PENN ST is 2-14 ATS  L/16 vs. good passing defenses - allowing 150 or less passing yards/game with a negative margin of 6.1 ppg. PENN ST is 6-25 ATS  L/31 versus excellent defensive teams - allowing 4.25 or less yards/play.

Penn State HC Franklin is just 9-19-1 ATS vs .750 or better foes like Michigan.

Penn State is 1-13 as a favorite when undefeated following a DD win vs a ,750 or better winning record like Michigan.

Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Mich - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 100 or less rushing yards/game, after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game are 72-35 ATS L/25 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Michigan to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Rambling Wreck are more one dimensional team then ever, and are not only a run team, but a run only team as they rank 128 th in the nation in pass efficiency.  Their fairly easy to read for good Ds, which Wake owns. With Clemson on board next week, for GTech I'm betting their concentration will also be off, which is not a good omen against a very good Wake Forest team, that are 8-2 ATS in their L/10 road games. Also WAKE FOREST is 28-8 ATS  L/36 vs. poor passing teams averaging 150 or less passing yards/game. I'm betting on a well rested Wake Forest team off a bye to have the edge today vs a GTECH side off a emotional loss a Miami Fl, last week.

WAKE FOREST is 9-1 ATS L/10 as an underdog and  16-4 ATS L/20  in road games after a bye week.

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like GTech - off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 6-26 ATS L/32 dating back 25 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 81% for bettors.

Play on Wake Forest to cover 1 unit reg selection

Charlotte is a  lower tier  team, no mistake about it, but UAB is as inconsistent as they come, and despite of back to back underdog wins, in no shape or form should be TD+ road favs here as they have failed in this role 12 of the L/17 times. UAB is 7-19 ATS L/26  in road games off a win against a conference rival. (They beat over rated Middle Tenn St last week 25-23)

It must also be noted that CFB teams off back to back upset victories are not a good bet when going against below .500 opposition going just 14-30 ATS L/44 times dating back 27 seasons. Also CFB  home team vs. the money line like Charlotte- off a road blowout loss by 28 points or more, with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent are 27-6 for a over powering 82% conversion rate over the L/10 seasons. ( Charlotte lost last week to W.Kentucky 45-14)

In Charlottes lone home game against a viable FBS side they lost 14-3 to up trending Marshall) It was a good effort that can be replicated today against a side in a letdown/trap spot.

Play on Charlotte to cover 1 unit reg selection

Oregon has been getting beaten up on of late, losing two straight lopsided events ,  but I expect they will be in this game vs their hosts UCLA , as a more reliable QB Taylor Alle will be back under center after backup Braxton Burmeister proved he can't handle the role .  Also the return of WR Royce Freeman will also aid the Ducks here in their ability to cover. Note: Taggart is 5-0 ATS L/5 after back to back ATS losses.

Jim Mora's UCLA is a defensive and TO deficient train wreck this season. Ranking 126th in TO margin while allowing 40 ppg on average . Considering Oregon has a recent history of gauging the Bruins D in the past averaging 48.3 ppg in this series, it will be an easy decision for me to take the Ducks in this spot.UCLA is 0-7 ATS  L/7 as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.

CFB road team like the Ducks  - off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 63-26 ATS over the L/25 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for betting backers.

Play on Oregon to cover 1 unit reg selection

Everyone seems to love Miss State here, and on paper maybe their right. But some other personal observations have come to light for me after watching more and more the Rebels QB Nick Fitzgerald of late. What I have noticed is that he's being allowed to let loose, in dangerous situations, as was the case last week when he threw to unnecessary interceptions in the red zone. This kid seems not to concerned with risk management, and does not measure up some passing situations well leaving his side vulnerable for pick 6s. This kid just does not get it, despite of being ultra talented. Instead I like Kentucky's mobile QB Stephen Johnson behind a explosive offense to be the better of the two today and to keep his Wildcats team in this game and get us the cover.


CFB Road underdogs like Kentucky- after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread, a top-level team ( 80% or better) playing a team with a winning record are 32-8 ATS over the L/10 seasons, for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Kentucky to cover 1 unit reg selection

Arizona St is off a big win vs Washington last time out, and have been competitive all season long, and have not lost by more than 10 points this season. I know The Sun Devils might be in a letdown mode, and that Utah has owned this series of late, but they are off two grueling physical  losses in their L/2 games against Stanford and USC and should show those effects here today, and also be in a letdown state. With that said I'm taking the points here.

Utah HC Whittingham is 12-27 ATS  L/39 as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.

 CFB team like Arizona State  - off a upset win as a double digit underdog, with 4+ more total starters returning than opponent are 23-4 ATS L/27 L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Arizona State to cover 1 unit reg selection

E.Michigan has lost 4 straight games, but make no mistake about it, their a much better team  than  that and have been very competitive in those losses losing by an average of 4.25 ppg , losing by 7, 4.5.1 points respectively with 3 of those coming on the road. In the 7 point loss to Ohio at home , they had chances to win that game, against what is turning out to be one of the top teams in the MAC this season. Its the E.Michigan D, that been impressive, as was the case against an explosive SEC team in Kentucky on the road( 24-20 L). So slowing down a Western Michigans offense should not be a problem, as well as  doing enough damage offensively to get us a cover. Remember this  Broncos team is  not a PJ Fleck coached side, and no longer deserves the respect they have over the last few seasons as was the case last week in a ugly 14-13 loss to Akron.

E MICHIGAN is 7-0 ATS L/7 after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers.E MICHIGAN is 15-4 ATS L/19 in all lined games and is 11-2 ATS as an underdog.
E MICHIGAN is 9-0 ATS L/9 when playing against a team with a winning record over the last couple of  seasons.

Play on E.Michigan to cover 1 unit reg selection

Tulsa is off a huge surprise 45-17 win vs Houston last week, and will now be in a letdown scenario here this week vs a UConn team that is off a upset win vs Temple last week. The difference is that UConn had a good chance to win their previous game  from the outset , while the Canes behind their 129th ranked D, were not. Now this extremely inconsistent Tulsa team is being asked to lay essentially a TD on the road, something I'm having a hard time swallowing. Especially considering how pathetic the Tulsa D has been this season.

TULSA is 8-21 ATS  L/29 versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 6.25 or more yards/play.CONNECTICUT is 12-3 ATS L/15  in home games off an upset win as an underdog.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like UConn - off 1 or more consecutive unders, with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 35 or more points/game are 69-36 ATS over the L/10 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UConn Huskies to cover 1 unit reg selection

Marshall is a team the pundits are not paying a lot of attention to this season , thanks to last seasons miserable results . However, this season, they are in big time upswing, behind a solid defense that is ranked No.2 in the nation, in red zone defense and allowed 3 of their L/4 opponents to a FG or less and the defense overall has held 4 sides to 20 points or less this season. Tonight against a Middle Tennessee State football program that has failed to cover 9 of their L/15 as home dogs, the Blue Raiders are fade material in my betting opinion

. note: the Raiders are off a upset loss last time out to UAB, 25-23 as 4 point chalk, , HC Stockstill is 2-9 ATS off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite and also 0-5 ATS /SU L/5 as a dog following a loss as a favorite.



CFB road team like Marshall - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 49 or more points total in their last seven games. are 30-7 ATS L/37 over the L/25 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Marshall to cover 1 unit reg selection

Houston enters this game off a surprising and embarrassing loss to Tulsa last time out as DD road favorites. They looked truly asleep at the wheel in that tilt after a big revenge win vs a up trending SMU side the week before by a 35-22 count. The good news for Cougars fans is that they will take on a Memphis team that has not won here in 11 years, and play this game on home turf where the Cougars have not lost since 2014. Houston also has revenge on board for a 48-44 loss in Memphis last season, even though they put 624 yards of offense up. Considering the Tigers are off a grueling and hard fought win vs Navy last week, 30-27, I'm betting they won't have as much left in the tank in this spot vs a Houston side that is superior defensive side with 73 yard per game better stopping margin than their visiting opponents.

MEMPHIS is 0-8 ATS  L/8 off an extremely close home win by 3 points or less and 8-19 ATS  off 2 straight wins against conference rivals. Houston has won 18 of their L/23 revengers.

Play on the Houston Cougars to cover 1 unit reg selection

 The Titans behind  a not 100% healthy QB Marcus Mariota are in my humble opinion at a disadvantage in this tilt vs disrespected Indianapolis Colts side, that maybe better than expected with QB Jacoby Brisset under center, especially with T.Y. Hilton waiting to grab passes and a trio of backs that can do damage. Remember, the  43-point loss the Titans experienced vs the Texans two weeks ago, as Mariota recorded a 56 QB rating while  throwing two interceptions? Mariota and his  offense looked out of sync. So completely blaming his back up Matt Cassel for the Titans 16-10 loss to Miami last week, maybe misplaced, as the Ttians offensive line looked weak in allowing 6 sacks. Indy in my opinion is not as bad as the public and pundits might think, and maybe we vastly over rated how good the Titans were going to be this season. After all actions speak louder than words, and thus far everything written and talked about by the media about the Titans has turned out to be wrong. It's still fairly early in the season, so I won't get to down on the Titans.  As far as tonight goes, I'm expecting this to be closer than the lines-makers are expecting , and getting points to be a viable wagering investment opportunity backing a visiting Colts team that has been a curse on this Titans franchise winning 11 straight meetings.

TENNESSEE is 1-8 ATS  L/9 vs. poor teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season .TENNESSEE is 2-13 ATS  L/15 when playing against a team with a losing record .TENNESSEE is 7-20 ATS  L/27  against conference opponents .

NFL Favorites like Tennessee - off 2 consecutive road losses, in a game involving two bad teams (25% to 40%) are 8-28 ATS during the L/24 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 78% for bettors.

NFL Home teams like Tennessee  - off a road loss, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25-40%) are 17-50 ATS dating back 24 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 75% for bettors.

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Tennessee - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game are 8-29 ATS dating back 10 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 79% for bettors.

Play on the Indianapolis Colts to cover 1 unit reg selection

The NFL is an interesting league , with  changes in a teams momentum from week to week , and there is  also enough parity  to justify taking a underdog like the 49ers that look futile at best in the eyes of the public.

Because of the Niners inconsistencies, there are some  exaggerated weak  lines attached to their tilts. This week, I have isolated such a line, and recommend we take the underdog getting DD points.  The old saying of  "Any given Sunday" should be given relevance here, and we should not rush to judgement about how bad a team San Francisco is as compared to the Redskins, who are far from a consistent side themselves. I know the Skins are off a bye week but  from a recent historical stand point have not faired well with rest as is evident by a  2-7 ATS record in their last 9 games following a bye week.

49ers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC.49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.49ers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.Redskins are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.Redskins are 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 games in Week 6.Road team is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

WASHINGTON is 21-39 ATS  L/60  in home games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 yards per return or less and 22-45 ATS  L/67  in home games when playing against a team with a losing record.WASHINGTON is 31-52 ATS  L/83 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.

The Redskins are 0-17 ATS and 3-14 SU as a FG-plus favorite when they are off a road game and facing a team that has forced 4.5 or fewer punts per game.The Redskins are 0-10 ATS /SU  at home after a loss in which they were up by at least a TD at the end of the first quarter.

Play on the SF 49ers to cover 1 unit reg selection

GB QB Aaron Rodgers has made big comeback wins in 2 of his L/3 games, and is red hot at the moment. When the Packers man under center is on his game, he has to be considered the best QB in football along with Tom Brady. The Packers are currently a full two games atop the NFC North and early on this season look like the class of the division. Meanwhile, Minnesota is off a Monday night game, vs Chicago winning by a 20-17 count, but are just 2-11 ATS L/13 at home in division games off a Monday night tilt. It must also be noted that Rodgers is 3-0 SU/ATS in a division game vs a side of the MNF game.With the Vikings QB Sam Bradford still not 100% healthy and the Vikes running game, operating a lower level than it has over the last few seasons, I'm fading them here, as home dogs.

GREEN BAY is 30-16 ATS L/46 versus good rushing defenses - allowing 90 or less rushing yards/game.GREEN BAY is 15-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points .GB HC McCarthy is 30-10 ATS vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game .

Favorites vs. the money line like the Packers - mistake-free team (1.25 TO/game committed or less) against a team with 1.25 TO/game forced, or less after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better are 29-2 SU for a 93% conversion rate. Considering that my own projections estimate a 6 point + win for the Packers it will be an easy decision to back them here based in part on this historical data.

Play on the GB Packers to cover 1 unit reg selection

The New Orleans Saints are off two straight wins and covers and have momentum on their sides and are also well rested after coming of their bye week. Meanwhile, the visiting Lions continue to be inconsistent, and are off a disappointing loss to the Carolina Panthers last time out as hosts. It must be noted that QB Matt Stafford has not performed well on the road in his career as is evident by a 8-22 SU mark vs a winning opponent . With a lack of a running game the Lions, have become to one dimensional, and are easily figured out by opposing defenses, which makes them fade material against a Saints side, that has held their L/2 opponents to a total of 237 yards of offense.

Lions are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. NFC.Saints are a perfect 5-0 ATS/SU and  8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a bye week.Saints are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Saints are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win. Teams like the Saints returning from England and off a bye are a near perfect 8-0-1 ATS.

NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS  L/6 versus good rushing defenses - allowing 90  or less rushing yards/game and  8-0 ATS  L/8 vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game. DETROIT is 7-21 ATS  L/28  in road games after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games.

NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like the  Lions - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 40-13 ATS for a 75% conversion rate for bettors dating back 24 seasons.

Play on the New Orleans Saints to cover 1 unit reg selection

Washington 6-0 is a fine team and ranked among the best in the nation. Many even believe they have a chance at a National Championship. However, tonight, I'm betting they will not easily get past a Arizona State side, that is fresh off a bye week and has the ability to fire back with some offensive fire power, ranking No.1 in red zone offense in the nation and get us a cover from many different perspectives, ie back door, shoot out or even an outright upset. I know this looks like a walk in the park for the mighty Huskies, but this series, has seen the Sun Devils win 10 of the L/11 games SU while covering 11 straight meetings. It must also be noted that Arizona State has covered 4 straight as DD home dogs, and that week 7 of the Huskies football schedule has been a curse for the program from a ATS perspective as they have failed to cover 11 straight times.

ARIZONA ST is 13-3 ATS L/16  in home games vs. good passing defenses - allowing 5.75 or less passing yards/att. ARIZONA ST is 11-1 ATS  L/12  in home games when playing with 2 weeks .

Arizona States HC Graham is 15-4 ATS  L/19  in home games versus good rushing defenses - allowing 120 rushing yards/game or less .

Play on Arizona State to cover 1 unit reg selection

Michigan State played a grueling/physical defensive game against the Michigan Wolverines last time out and came out on top via a 14-10 score as underdogs. Now drained exhausted and in an emotional letdown scenario they go against a hard working PJ Fleck lead side that will primed and motivated to get a win as home dogs.

 It must be noted that after winning their first 3 games the Gophers have lost back to back games and need a victory badly and have responded well of adversity in the recent past as is evident by these trends.Golden Gophers are 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.Golden Gophers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss.

MICHIGAN ST is 0-6 ATS  L/6 as a road favorite.Spartans are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.Spartans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.

Underdog is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 meetings.Spartans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

Play on the Minnesota Gophers to cover 1 unit reg selection

Utah dominates at the line of scrimmage, and has some of the top defensive numbers in the PAC12. Meanwhile, USC, is banged up on the line of scrimmage, and just don't have enough viable healthy components at the moment to mix and match on the offensive or defensive line. That was the reason Washington State beat the Trojans, and why this could end up in a surprising upset here for Utah. I know the Utes are going with backup senior QB Troy Williams , because no.1 man under center Tyler Huntely is injured.  However, it must be noted that Williams started all 12 games last season, so its not like he can't manage this teams offense, even though  it will just not be as dynamic and instead revert back to a ground heavy attack that eats clock.

Utah's HC Whittingham is 7-0 ATS  L/7  in road games after a loss by 3 or less points, which happened against Stanford last time out. USC is 0-7 ATS L/7  in home games after 5 consecutive games where they committed 2 or more turnovers.UTAH is 12-3 ATS  L/15 as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points.UTAH is 16-5 ATS  L/21  in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  75% or better )

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points like Utah - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 27-5 ATS over the L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Utah to cover 1 unit reg selection

Last week the over rated UTSA Roadrunners got smacked around by southern Miss and lost as 10 point chalk. Now they come into North Texas as favorites again, and I feel very much like the wrong team is favored here. You have to remember that all three of UTSAs wins have come against winless sides, and now against a explosive Mean Green offense that has put 46, and 43 points on the board in back to back games and out stating their competition by 110 ypg   their in trouble. With the added incentive of payback for the Mean Green for a 31-17 road loss they suffered last season, to the Roadrunners, I'm betting the home team covers.

NORTH TEXAS is 18-7 ATS  L/25 off 2 straight wins against conference rivals.

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 UTSA - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game against opponent after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 22-57 dating back 5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 72% for bettors.

Play on North Texas to cover 1 unit reg selection

LA Monroe have won 3 straight games, but what has become obvious is that their defense is horrendous, as is evident by having allowed an of 37 ppg.  Meanwhile, Georgia State's defense has been formidable vs all but one opponent this season ( Penn St) and will be more prepared to make key stops. On offense, GState might lack fire power, but against this type of empty D, they should have a viable output that helps us cover the number.

ULM is just 2-9 SU and 1-10 ATS L/11 as chalk vs .500 or better opponents.

GEORGIA ST is 6-0 ATS K/6 in weeks 5 through 9 and  is 8-1 ATS L/9 in road games against conference opponents  and is 12-3 ATS L/15  in road games.

Play on Georgia State to cover 1 unit reg selection

Western Kentucky after former HC Jeff Brohm left for Purdue  has lost their offensive effectiveness  and last week barely got by lowly UTEP by a 15-14 count.  Actually the Hilltoppers are in a desperate state as they have been out gained  in all 5 of their games this season, and are being over rated by the linesmakers here today as DD home favorites. From a value line perspective it must be noted that Charlotte is 4-1 ATS L/5 as a DD conference dog. Hey guys I know Charlotte is not exactly a quality team, but W KENTUCKY is  just 3-12 ATS  L/15  in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.9 or more yards/play and 1-9 ATS L/10 in the first half of the season .

Play on Charlotte to cover 1 unit reg selection

Last week Navy unleashed its option attack out of the shotgun against Air Force and rushed for 471 yards and four touchdowns in a 48-45 victory. Considering Memphis ranks   93rd in the nation against the run its obvious to me that Memphis coach Mike Norvell and his team are in trouble this week.Navy won last year's meeting 42-28, rushing for 532 yards in a key conference victory that propelled the Midshipmen to the American Athletic Conference Western Division title and repeat performance is not out of the question here.

NAVY is 11-2 ATS L/3 as a road underdog of 3 points or less.MEMPHIS is 0-6 ATS L/6 in home games after gaining 325 or more passing yards in last game and 9-21 ATS  after a win by 28 or more points and  7-26 ATS  after scoring 42 points or more last game and  2-11 ATS L/13 after scoring 50 points or more last game which happened in a lopsided win vs UConn last time out.

CFB Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 Navy - excellent rushing team - averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry, after gaining 6.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 24-5 ATS over the L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate.

Play on Navy to cover 1 unit reg selection

LSU got the proverbial monkey off their backs last time out against Florida winning SU on the road by a 17-16 count. Now they go against an explosive Auburn side that despite of deserving respect are now a little banged up , and could be without key RB Kerryon Johnson who left his last game with hamstring issues.

With that said LSU HC Bill Orgeron and his Bayou Bengals are now in a position to get redemption for a loss they suffered to Troy State at home in their last game here, if they can upend or stay extremely competitive vs Auburn this week.

I'm betting that the home team will come out fired up and plat like their hair is on fire, and give Auburn a run for their money.

Note:LSU running backs Derrius Guice and Darrel Williams have been hobbled by leg injuries, but both should be ready to go Saturday and both are said to being doing much better.

LSU has won 8 straight meetings in this series , while Auburn  are just 1-10 ATS away with conference revenge. Auburn is also 0-9 ATS/SU L/9 on the road vs a conference side off a ATS win.

CFB home team like LSU - after 4 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 37-13 ATS for a 74% conversion rate for bettors over the L/5 seasons.

Play on LSU to cover 1 unit reg selection

Buffalo is of a grueling 5 OT loss last week vs Western Michigan by a 71-68 count in now will be exhausted and in a huge let down scenario. Now they go against a Northern Illinois program that leads the nation in tackles for a loss and has owned this series in the past winning 9 straight times by an average of 29 ppg. Northern Illinois after a leisurely 24-3 win vs Kent State last week, will be fresh enough to own and cover this game as well.

BUFFALO is 4-17 ATS  L/21 off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival and is 2-10 ATS   off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a conference rival

.N ILLINOIS is 8-0 ATS  L/8 after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers and 11-1 ATS  L/112  after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins and also 6-0 ATS  L/6 after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game .N ILLINOIS is 11-3 ATS  L/`4 in road games. College Football FBS road  chalk are 42-4 SU  this season and 36-8-2 ATS vs sides like Buffalo off a loss.

Play on Northern Illinois to cover 1 unit reg selection

Air Force will be a letdown situation today against UNLV, after dueling against their rivals Navy last week and losing. It must be noted that the Falcons are 0-7 ATS L/7 after playing against the Midshipman, and UNLV is 2-0 ATS on the road this season, and 4-1 ATS away dating back to last season. I'm betting on the Rebels run game that is averaging 266 ypg to run over a Air force run D, that is allowing 254 ypg.

AIR FORCE is 0-6 ATS  L/6 versus poor defensive teams - allowing 425 or more yards/game.

CFB road teams like UNLV - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (1.25 turnovers/game committed or less), after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are a long term 136-83 ATS for a 62% conversion rate.

Play on the UNLV Rebels to cover 1 unit reg selection

Oh how the mighty have fallen . BYU enters this game ranked 126th in pass efficiency this season   and 124th in time of possession and have been outscored by a 104-37 count in their L/3 losses. Meanwhile, Miss State after a fast start to their campaign were bent over by top tier nationally ranked Auburn and Georgia ,  and are now angry and very much ready for redemption against what is now a struggling Cougars side that cannot move the ball. I know the linesmakers are asking us to lay the lumber in a 3+ TD Spread, but I'm betting we have value here with well rested  chalk off their bye week.

Cougars are 0-7 ATS L/7 vs SEC.

Lay the points with Miss State to cover 1 unit reg selection

Carolina (4-1) very much looks like they have returned to the form that got them to the 2015 Super Bowl. QB Cam Newton despite of injury woes and being maligned by the pundits and even me on occasion, has shown a lot of professionalism and to his point in the season proved almost everyone wrong. He had a great game against the Lions last time out, leading his team to a 27-24 road dog win, and looks like he is on a mission.  Meanwhile, Philadelphia (4-1) is off beating up on a Arizona team with numerous issues and injuries by a lopsided 34-7 count. The Eagles have looked very competitive so far, but here in Carolina, I'm betting they are over matched, on a short line , which in my opinion makes for a viable wagering opportunity backing the host side. There is also extra motivation for the Panthers, as they look for redemption for a embarrassing DD home loss to the Saints the last time they played in front of their own fans on Sept 24.

Carolina HC Rivera is 32-13 ATS  L/45 after playing their last game on the road. CAROLINA is 18-6 ATS  L/24  in home games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging  375 or more yards/game.CAROLINA is 10-2 ATS  L/12 after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games.Eagles are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games.Panthers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

The Panthers are 15-0 SU/ 14-1 ATS as a regular season home favorite when they are off a road game and facing an opponent that is averaging at least 360 offensive yards per game. The smallest margin of victory came by 4 points , with the average margin of victory registering at 16 ppg.

NFL Home teams like Carolina - off an upset win as a road underdog, in a game involving two top-level teams (75% or better) are 23-6 ATS over the L/25 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Underdogs or pick like Philadelphia  - after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 11-35 ATS dating back 5 seasons for a 76% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Carolina Panthers to cover 1 unit reg selection

Troy in their last trip to the gridiron defeated LSU on the road , in a huge upset as 21 point under dogs. Now they come home to play South Alabama in conference action off a bye week and despite of being rested I'm betting it will be very hard not to be in an emotional let down scenario here as  big DD favorites.  It must  also be noted that none  of Troys 3 wins vs FBS opponents have come by more than 5 points , with two coming by a FG margin. After the huge win at LSU, the Trojans now also have a huge target on their backs, and you can bet South Alabama will be primed and extremely motivated to pull of an upset of their own. With that said, I'm expecting a very hard fought affair here with the points ending up being golden. The last two meetings in this series in 2015, 2016 were decided by a 6 and 7 points respectively and similar margin of victory is what I'm projecting tonight.

S ALABAMA is 15-4 ATS  L/19 in road games in the first half of the season. TROY is 0-6 ATS L/6 when the total is between 49.5 and 56 dating back to last season.

Play on South Alabama to cover 1 unit reg selection

Green Bay played the Thursday night game in Week 4 and  destroyed Chicago by a DD deficit. Meanwhile, the  Cowboys have alternated wins and losses this season and looked inconsistent last week in a loss to a Rams team that must be considered a lower tier side at the moment.

After watching GB QB Aaron Rodgers operate at an extremely high level over the last couple of weeks , and knowing how streaky he is it will not be a hard decision to support a Packers side that is now in a upswing and with momentum behind them.

GREEN BAY is 6-0 ATS  L/6 off a division game. HC  Garrett is  just 2-10 ATS  as a home favorite of 3 points or less. GB HC McCarthy is 29-10 ATS  vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game. Dallas is 0-5 ATS in their last five home games against teams with winning road records.Cowboys are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games on fieldturf.Packers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up win and are  4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.

NFL team like the Packers - after leading in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half against opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 31-7 ATS during the L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the GB Packers to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Rams are being made favorites here against a veteran Seattle side after upsetting the Dallas Cowboys last week in a 35-30 win. But despite of the victory the Rams are exhibiting a Swiss cheese type of defense that has allowed 93 points in their L/3 tilts and more than 400 yards in two consecutive games. It must be noted that the LA RAMS are just  2-14 ATS  after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games . Today against a Seattle side, with a great D , I'm betting the Rams find it hard to move the ball and score consistently and for the Seahwaks to use the momentum of consecutive offensive outbursts of 27 and 47 points to do a great deal of  offensive damage on their way to a cover.

Seahawks are 23-6-2 ATS in their last 31 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

Rams are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC.
LA RAMS is 1-9 ATS l/10 after the first month of the season. Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC West.

First year coaches off an underdog SU win, are just 11-31 -1 ATS in their follow up games as chalk.

Play on the Seattle Seahawks to cover 1 unit reg selection

Buffalo enters this tilt against Cincinnati with a 3-1 record, and last week went into Atlanta and beat the Atlanta Falcons straight up as 8 point dogs and the week before beat a very tough Denver team. Now they are being made 3 point opening line dogs to a Cincinnati team that has looked extremely inconsistent getting shutout in their opener by a now down graded Baltimore side, and than in week 3 fell apart after taking a big lead against the Packers, showing me their defensive deficiencies. I know they clobbered the Browns last week, but that cannot be considered surprising. This week, however, I'm betting the Bengals will have their hands full with a smash mouth D, that will have them struggling to move the ball, much like was the case in their first two games where they scored a total of 9 points.

 Bengals HC Lewis is 7-18 ATS  L/25 after a 2 game road trip .Lewis is 9-20 ATS  L/29 against AFC East division opponents and is 11-22 ATS L/33 vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game.

NFL Home favorites like the Bengals  - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 5-24 ATS dating back 5 seasons for a 82% go against conversion rate for bettors.

NFL teams vs the money line like Buffalo - mistake-free team (1.25 TO/game committed or less) against a team with 1.25 TO/game forced or less, after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better are 32-2 SU dating back 10 seasons for a 94% conversion rate!

NFL Road teams like the Bills- mistake-free team (1.25 TO/game committed or less) against a team with 1.25 TO/game or less forced, after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 38-13 ATS for a 75% conversion rate for bettors dating back 24 seasons. 

Play on the Buffalo Bills to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Detroit Lions are 3-1 on the season, after last weeks underdog win on the road vs the Minnesota Vikings. Their one loss was a controversial one, against the Atlanta Falcons where it appeared they scored a last minute TD, that was over turned by the NFL head office despite of irrefutable  evidence. Now the up trending Lions face a Carolina side, that has been very inconsistent this season, and now off an emotional letdown scenario after defeating the league champions New England Pats last time out in a Foxboro by a 33-30 count. I'm not sold on Carolina's QB Cam Newton having back to back decent games, and feel the Lions will give him a lot of headaches here in Motown on their way to a bigger win then the lines-makers estimate.

Panthers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

NFL team vs the money line like the Lions - mistake-free team (1.25 TO/game committed or less) against a team with 1.25 TO/game or less forced, after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better are 32-2 SU L/35 games for a 94% conversion rate for bettors..

Home teams like the Lions - off an upset win as a road underdog, in a game involving two top-level teams ( 75% or better) are 23-5 ATS dating back 24 seasons for a 82% conversion rate.

Play on the Detroit Lions to cover 1 unit reg selection

Utah (4-0) well rested off a bye week enters this PAC 12 game against Stanford (3-2) as the most under rated team in the conference and must be respected here as home dogs. This Utes team is experienced and tough as nails and now have a viable offense to go along with a D that must be considered of the top tier variety. Meanwhile,  the Cardinal despite of pre season billing , as conference front runners, have been a disappointment in some ways especially defense , as is evident by allowing USC 42 points , UCLA 34 and Arizona State 24 points respectively. With that said, I expect the Utes to make more key defensive stops today and get us the cover , behind a multi faceted offense that can do damage.

UTAH is 34-17 ATS L/51 after a bye week and is 36-19 ATS  L/55 as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. Utah HC Whittingham is 18-9 ATS  l/27 when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) with the average score ringing in at Utah 30.3 and opposition 25. My own estimates suggest that Utah will score at least 28 points, which is a positive indicator when considering that the Utes are 8-1 ATS L/9 when they score 28 or more points winning by an average of two TDs a game.

Play on the Utah Utes to cover

Projected score: Utah 30 Stanford 28

Memorial Stadium will be rocking in Lincoln, Neb. A sellout string of 358 games dating to Nov. 3, 1962 will have the Cornhuskers with a full house as they take on the Wisconsin Badgers this Saturday night.

In their two most recent battles against Wisconsin they held the Badgers to 23 points and lost by 2 and 6 points respectively. I know Nebraska has started a little slowly this season, but their have been flashes of brilliance, and I'm betting the disrespect associated with  DD home underdog role, will ignite them even further. The Huskers are 5-1 ATS L/6 as conference home dog of 5 points or more , while the Badgers are 1-5 ATS as a DD road favorite vs a side off a win. ( Nebraska beat Illinois last week)

I expect the wild card to be a steadily improving Nebraska D, under the tutelage of  first-year defensive coordinator Bob Diaco.
The Blackshirts have allowed only two offensive touchdowns in the past 14 quarters. Last week, they held Illinois to 199 yards of offense, marking the third straight game in which they've held opponents to fewer than 250 yards.

NEBRASKA is 11-1 ATS L/12 in home games vs. very good defensive teams who give up 14 or less points/game  and is 13-4 ATS  L/17 in home games vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season. NEBRASKA is also 22-9 ATS  in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 75% or better )

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points like Nebraska - after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 62-29 ATS for a 66% conversion rate over the L/10 seasons.

Play on Nebraska to cover 1 unit reg selection

 Alabama has been obliterating opponents and crushed back to back SEC foes by a combined 125-3 count and are now because of this domination being made huge favorites vs a team getting very little respect from the public and linesmakers. Meanwhile, their hosts Texas A&M after losing their opener to UCLA after blowing a 44-10 lead and losing 45-44 have won 4 straight and if it were not for that epic crash would be 5-0 on the season. Now we have a situation where Sumlin and company can get some redemption, for their opening embarrassment if they can stay competitive.  With that said,  I'm betting  that the Aggies leave everything on the field today, and cover the number. (Texas A&M has covered 4 of their L/5 as DD home dogs)

CFB Home underdogs of 14.5 or more points like the Aggies - after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 40-11 ATS over the L/25 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Road favorites like Alabama - excellent rushing team (230 RY/G or more) against a team with an excellent rushing defense (100 RY/game or better), after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game are just 9-31 ATS for a 78% conversion rate for bettors during the 25 seasons.

Play on Texas A&M to cover

Kansas State opened up Big 12 play with a victory against Baylor and will now head back on the road to face the Texas Longhorns on Saturday at Texas Memorial Stadium.   .K-State

defense remains it strong point and  has held its first four opponents to under 21 points, and I'm betting on Texas having issues scoring here today.

K-State has run over  teams from the state of Texas of late as is evident by the Cats having won their last six confrontations against teams from Texas, including all five major FBS programs in the state last season (Texas, Texas A&M, TCU, Texas Tech, Baylor.Since 2011, K-State is 16-11 in Big 12 play on the road and should be respected here as underdogs.

K-State D is their staple, but the it must be noted that the offense has been one of the best red zone groups over the last few seasons as the Wildcats are the only team to finish in the top-15 nationally in red zone offense in 2014, 2015 and 2016.

KANSAS ST is 21-9 ATS  L/30 as a road underdog of 7 points or less.KANSAS ST is 13-4 ATS  L/17  in road games after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards in 2 straight games. HC Snyder is 30-17 ATS   versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 yards/game or more.

CFB Road underdogs like KState - in a game involving two good rushing teams - both outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG, after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game are 125-64 ATS over the L/10 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Kansas State to cover 1 unit reg selection

 I keep looking for reasons to downgrade the SMU Mustnags, but I cannot do it based on consistent performances. They have averaged 48.5 ppg, and  scored 58, 54,36, 44, 49 points respectively in 5 tilts , with their lowest output coming against a 5-0 TCU. Now they go against a tough cougars D, that trys to eat clock with s lead. But the biggest problem with Houston is that their offense stumbles alot and is not as cohesive as their defense. Here against a extremely explosive SMU attack, I'm betting their in trouble. I know that Houston has revenge in mind for a 38-16 set back as home favs last season vs SMU, but you don't always get what you want, especially against a team like the Mustangs that matches up very well against them. With that said, getting points here makes for a viable investment option.


SMU is 6-0 ATS  L/6 after scoring 37 points or more last game and 7-0 ATS  L/7 after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers.

Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like SMU - quick starting offensive team - scoring 16+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games 50 -18 ATS over the L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Road underdogs like SMU - after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games, with an experienced QB vs. opponent with inexperienced QB are 38-11 ATS over the L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the SMU Mustangs to cover

Southern Miss looked really good in their first three games,  until the wheels fell of the proverbial truck  as they blew a decent lead vs North Texas last week. I know UTSA is undefeated in their first three games, but they continue to shoot themselves in the foot as they take a boat load full penalties ( no.1 in the nation) and that I'm betting that will be their downfall this week, vs a Southern Miss program that will be hell bent on getting some pay back for a 55-32 loss here last season. It must be noted that Southern Miss out gained the Roadrunners in that game piling up 562 yards in offense but lost because of 3 turnovers.

Play on Southern Miss to cover 1 unit reg selection

Colorado State will be playing their 3 rd straight road game this week, after flying out to Hawaii and beating up on the Warriors by A 51-21 count. The Rams now tired and jet lagged will be at a disadvantage  vs a feisty and somewhat surprisingly explosive Utah State Aggies side  that has put 101 points on the board in their 2 games.

Utah is 28-6-1 L/35 at home SU.

UTAH ST is 10-2 ATS  L/12 when the total is greater than or equal to 63 and is 10-2 ATS    in home games after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game.

CFN Road favorites like Colorado State - after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 6-27 ATS dating back 5 seasons for a 82% go against conversion rate for betting backers.

Play on the Utah State Aggies to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Terps controlled Minnesota last week in a 31-24 win and held the Gophers to a season-low 309 yards , while rushing for 262 yards against a D that was ranked No. 1 in the country against the run. Now this week against a Ohio State program that smashed the Terps for the worst defeat in program history last year (62-3),  I expect a very motivated effort and more importantly a cover by the visitors in this spot.

OHIO ST is 2-10 ATS  L/12   in home games after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game. HC Meyer is 4-17 ATS   after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game which happened against Rutgers in a lopsided 56-0 win.

CFB Home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points like Ohio State - after playing their last game on the road, in October games are just 14-40 ATS in their follow up game for a go against conversion rate of 74% for bettors.

CFB Road underdogs like Maryland - in a game involving two good rushing teams - both outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 105-52 ATS over the L/5 seasons for 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Maryland to cover 1 unit reg selection

LSU did not prepare well for Troy State last week and were upset by a 24-21 count. The Bayou Tigers probably got caught looking to this game vs Florida. Now this week a big meeting took place on  campus and the teams coaches going forward are supposedly now on the same page, according to a press release. Whatever, that means. Truth be told this meeting was more of , what the hell happened question and answer  session. But like the old saying goes , On Any Given Sunday or Saturday in this case, any team can pull off a win.  With that said, Nothing has changed for LSU , its still a good program and still loaded with talent, and despite of their recent struggles are more than capable of upending a Florida Gators side now operating under a new QB Fileipe Franks as a  starting pivot Jack Del Rio is out with an injury. Florida won last year's meeting 16-10, stopping the Tigers on two rushes from the Gators' 1 on the final two plays of the game and now with revenge on board and HC Orgeron on the hot seat, I expect we see the best the Tigers have to offer.

LSU is 27-13 ATS   in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses  and is 15-4-1 ATS as a dog following a SU favorite defeat, including 12-1-1 ATS when facing a better than .700 opponent.

CFB Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 like the Gators - after going over the total by more than 21 points in their previous game, in the first half of the season are 19-48 ATS for a go against conversion rate of 72% for bettors.

Play on LSU to cover 1 unit reg selection

Florida State after not playing for three weeks because of hurricane  cancellations are taking  time to jell this season, especially after losing their starting QB Deondre Francois. But this Seminoles program is deep and talented, and now I'm betting we see them at their best this week vs a very good Miami Florida team . It must be noted that  Seminoles coach Jimbo Fisher is 43-7 SU at home, in his career and has covered 14 of 17 vs undefeated opposition like the Canes including 7-1 ATS at home. FLORIDA ST is 20-8 ATS L/28 off a road no-cover where the team won as a favorite, and are  23-9 L/32 ATS when the line is +3 to -3.Fisher is 10-2 ATS  vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game. Considering Florida State has won 7 straight meetings in this series straight up, and has covered 5 straight as dogs it will not be a hard decision taking them as home pups  in this spot. 

Play on Florida State to cover   

Penn State is turning into a Big 10 contender, but Northwestern is not intimated by them in them in the  least as they have beaten them in back to back meetings. It must be also noted that Penn State has failed in 6 straight with conference revenge in road games,  and with HC Frankilin   3-11-1 ATS  and 1-7 SU and have not covered once during that span vs teams like Northwestern that have allowed 26 points or less, the Lions don't look like solid favorites

. I know Penn State has regained a lot of their tarnished respect back with some wins over the last few seasons, but not all is perfect with the football program on the field, as they have struggled with their offensive line of late, and their running game, and their overall numbers outside of the win column are also a concern. I also know Northwestern might seem like a disappointment to some who thought they turned a corner towards bigger and better things this season, but the season is still young, and today I'm betting we see them at their best.

PENN ST is 8-19 ATS  L/27  in road games off a home blowout win by 28 points or more which happened in a 45-14 win vs Indiana last week.

Play on Northwestern to cover 1 unit reg selection

Last week the Demon Deacons showed me their toughness in  a hard fought 26-19 home loss to Florida State. Its Wake Forests D  makes them a formidable underdog as they are ranked 29th in total yards allowed (317.2 ypg), 32nd vs the pass (184.4 ypg) and 52nd vs rushing attacks (132.8 ypg), and are allowing just 14.4 ppg, which ranks them 13th in the nation.The Deacons returned 19 starters off last season's team, including senior quarterback John Wolford. Meanwhile, Clemson off a road win vs VTech and out yarded by 10 yards are now exhausted after playing three top 15 football programs during the month of September. With that said, I will not be surprised if the hard working Demon Decons catch Dabo Swinney and company in a letdown spot and get us the cover.  

Wake Forests HC Dave Clawson is 11-2 ATS as a underdog of 19 or more points, including 6-0 ATS when they have a .500 or greater record. Meanwhile, Clemson is just 1-6-1 ATS as a conference home favorite of 15 or more points

. WAKE FOREST is 8-1 ATS  L/9 as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. CLEMSON is 2-14 ATS  L/16 after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 5 straight games.

CFB Home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points like Clemson - after playing their last game on the road, in October games are 14-40 ATS for a go against conversion rate of 74% for bettors over the L/5 seasons.Home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points like Clemson - off 1 or more consecutive unders, excellent offensive team - scoring 35 or more points/game are 13-38 ATS over the L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 75% for bettors.

Play on Wake Forest to cover 1 unit reg selection

BYU has really fallen in every ones power rankings , but this team is still capable of a decent effort here in their own digs (59-12 L/71 SU L/12 seasons), and must not be disrespected or underestimated vs a Boise State football program that as failed to cover 12 of their L/15 games overall, and have been out yarded while allowing 29 ppg this season. It must also be noted that the Cougars  are 3-0 SU/ATS L/3 when on a 4 game skid, and have won 8 straight at home SU when off a loss as a favorite as was the case in last weeks negative outcome to Utah State.

BOISE ST is 0-7 ATS  L/7 after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games and is 1-8 ATS   after gaining 325 or more passing yards in last game.

BYU is 30-0 SU at home since 2006 against opposition sides that allow more than 28 PPG like Boise State.

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Boise State - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are a long term 35-68 ATS for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors.

BYU to cover  1 unit reg selection

Many pundits are now down the New England Patriots, but any team with Tom Brady at QB and Bill Belichick as their HC is an extremely dangerous animal when wounded. I know that through four games,including Sunday's 33-30 home loss against the Carolina Panthers, the Patriots are off to their worst defensive start under coach Bill Belichick , which is surprise considering the Pats owned the best D in the league last season. However with that said, the Pats have the  talent to right their sinking ship and trend back towards their expected norm beginning tonight in Tampa Bay.

I'm not a big proponent of laying lumber on the road in any sport, but in this situation I'm betting we have an edge, behind a QB a future hall of famer in Tom Brady that is 16-3 SU/ATS off a loss as favorite and now on the road and 9-1 ATS on Thursday nights and 6-1 ATS away.

It must be noted that TB has not had success vs defenses that are allowing a lot of yards. TAMPA BAY is 3-12 ATS  L/15 in home games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing  375 or more yards/game.

NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS lL6   in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 350 or more yards/game and is 9-1 ATS  versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65  or more yards/play.NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 ATS L/7  in road games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored with the average margin of victory coming by almost 15 ppg.

TB is 0-4 ATS at home on Thursday nights.

NFL Road favorites like the Pats - excellent passing team - averaging 255 or more passing yards/game, after allowing 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games are 22-4 ATS dating back 34 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for betting backers.

Play on the New England Pats to cover 1 unit reg selection

Everyone loves the offensive explosiveness of the Louisville Cards behind the legs and arm of super athletic LaMar Jackson. But what few seem to recognize is the inconsistency of the Cardinals defense, which is not of the top tier variety, as was the case against Clemson allowing 47 points, and N.Carolina 35 and Purdue 28. The only two teams that did not run over their D, was the bumbling duo of Kent St and  Murray State.  Meanwhile, NC State can play a tough brand of defense, and have shown their propensity as dogs when they upset Florida State by a 27-21 count. The Wolfpack are on a current 4 game win streak, and still have not peaked in my opinion. With revenge on board I expect this 22 returning starter side, to be wound up to get payback for a ugly and merciless  54-13 beat-down at Louisville last season.  

Cardinals are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall.Cardinals are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.Cardinals are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Wolfpack are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points NC State - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 100 or less rushing yards/game, after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game are 88-45 ATS dating back 24 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on NC State to cover 1 unit reg selection

 Some people and some teams  just don't like change. Looks like the Chargers are one of those teams. Since finding out their moving out of the comforts of San Diego , the team has nose dived. Since last December the Chargers are 1-11 SU/ATS overall and are 0-4SU/ATS in their new Stadium , where no more than 25000 people have come to watch them play lately. It's hardly a home winning environment, and once again I'm fading them in this spot.

LA CHARGERS is 0-6 ATS  L/6  in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game.PHILADELPHIA is 8-0 ATS  L/8 off 2 or more consecutive overs.

Play on Philadelphia to cover 1 unit reg selection

Last week vs a highly-respected defense in Denver, the Bills moved the  the ball with impunity in superb fashion and coasted to a  26-16 victory. QB Taylor completed 20 of 26 passes for 213 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions, and  now owns a  126 PASSER ratting , and could finally be reaching the bar that was set so high for him out of the gate in his career. Quote: “I sense that our team embraces some of the underdog role, and that’s good,” head coach Sean McDermott said. “There’s a lot of power in that. I would say that we focus on a lot that’s going on in this building, not outside of this building.” END QUOTE: With that said, I expect the Bills to give Atlanta all they can handle this week, and for their D, to be the key behind what I am betting will a Buffalo cover.

ATLANTA is 6-16 ATS L/22   in home games after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game  which happened against the Lions last time out. ATLANTA is 13-32 ATS  45  in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread.

Bills are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

NFL team vs the money line like the Bills - mistake-free team - committing 0.75 or less turnovers/game, after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better have won 38 of the L/48 times SU, thus giving us extra value getting points here.

Play on the Buffalo Bills to cover 1 unit reg selection

Baltimore's Quarterback Joe Flacco had the worst game of his entire career in London last time out. He completed eight of 18 pass attempts for just 28 yards with two interceptions. He finished with a quarterback rating of 12.0 and his team was gutted 44-7. But this is still a good Ravens team, that is not as bad as their last game might indicate. Now looking to exercise the demons of that embarrassment I expect the Ravens to give their arch rivals the Pittsburgh Steelers a fight for their money this Sunday. Baltimore has bounced back well in the past off a 20 or more point loss winning 7 of 9 games straight up and teams coming back from England are 9-0-1 ATS L/10 dating back to the 2015 season.

BALTIMORE is 9-0 ATS L/9 after being outgained by 200 or more total yds in their previous game . Baltimore has covered 3 straight in this series, and are 2-0  ATS/SU L/2 at home.

NFL Road favorites like the Steelers - outgaining opponent by 70 or more passing yards/game on the season, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game are 34-73 ATS dating back 34 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 68% for bettors.

Play on Baltimore to cover 1 unit reg selection

 Nevada enters this game at 0-4, but they have been very competitive according to my own numbers (not so much last week vs a great looking Wash St side) but overall stats and power rankings and must not be underestimated.  Meanwhile, Fresno State despite of a 1-2 record are according to my own numbers, no more than -5.5 to 6 point home favorite,. I know that the Wolfpack could be with out RB Jaxon Kincaide, but as I have said before, that position is the most easily filled position in College Football, and the Pack can fill the void if need be. With that said, I'm betting on Nevada off a bye week  covering what I believe to be a generous spread. Wolf Pack are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week.

NEVADA is 8-1 ATS   after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game .Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.Wolf Pack are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Fresno State.Road team is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings.FRESNO ST is 7-22 ATS   after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games.

Play on Nevada to cover

Clemson owns a great football program and I have a lot of respect for them. But tonight I'm going against them vs a side that matches up well head to head with them, the VTech Hokies. In last seasons ACC Championship game the Tigers pulled off a 42-35 win and now pay back is on Justin Fuente mind. It must be noted as great as Clemson is, they are just 3-7 ATS as 10 point or less away favs, and 4-9 ATS L/13 vs a conference side with revenge. Meanwhile, VTech is 7-0 ATS L/7 at home with ACC revenge as a underdog. It must also be noted that National champs are 0-6 ATS away L.37 years, when laying points against an undefeated opponent.

VIRGINIA TECH is 10-2 ATS  L/12 in home games vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season.CLEMSON is 6-20 ATS  L/26 after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 4 straight. VTech has covered 6 of the L/9 in this series including 2 of 3 here at home.

CFB Road favorites like Clemson - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 2.75 or less rushing yds/carry, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are just 12-37 ATS dating back 25 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 76% for bettors.

Play on VTech to cover 1 unit reg selection

Lane Kiffin and Florida Atlantic (1-3) might not be putting many  wins up on the board , but they are showing steady improvement. Last week against a very strong Buffalo Bulls football program they went toe to toe losing a 34-31 heartbreaker as 3 point road dogs . Now this week as they peak  I am betting their  ready to notch a home  victory vs a banged up Middle Tennessee State (2-2) side, that has starting QB Brent Stockstill suffering with a shoulder injury and key wide receiver, Richie James dealing with an ankle injury. It must also be noted RB Shane Tucker is also banged up.  If any of them play they are expected to be less than 100%. Favorite is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 like Florida Atlantic - excellent rushing team - averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry, after gaining 6.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 35-11 ATS dating back 5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for betting backers.

Play on Florida Atlantic to cover

LSU looks like they have problems and  HC Orgeron is on the hot seat. Another tumultuous game is now on the Horizon vs a feisty Troy group that is a perfect 4-0 L/4 as 21 or more point dogs.  As a matter of fact Orgeron is his career is just 10-25 SU vs an above .500 side. That is not a good omen for a LSU gridiron group that utilizes RB Derrius Guice a great deal to move the ball, and with him banged up, and no one as talented as him to take his place, I'm  negative on the Bayou Bengals chances at covering.

LSU is 2-12 ATS L/14   in home games versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry.LSU is 7-18 ATS  L/25 as a home favorite of 14.5 to 21 points.

CFB Road underdogs like Troy - in a game involving two good rushing teams - both outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 103-52 dating back 10 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Troy to cover 1 unit reg selection

Michigan State outs yarded Notre Dame last week by 141 yds, but still found themselves on the wrong end of a lopsided score thanks to no less than three costly turnovers and a boatload full of penalty yards. Now this week, with less pressure on them to perform I expect they beat up on a Iowa team that is completely deflated after a hugely emotional loss to Penn State last week. The Hawkeyes played their hearts out, and have nothing to show for it and  now will have nothing left in the tank for this tilt. With Michigan on board next week, you can bet we will see the best the Spartans here.

Play on Michigan State to cover 1 unit reg selection

This Buffalo football program has come a long way over the last few seasons, and are now in a position to challenge for a MAC Championship. The Bulls played Big 10 opponent Minnesota very tough in their opener losing by a 17-7 count and are 2-1 since.   Now they go against a 0-3 Kent State side, that has been out yarded by an average of 352 yards per game so far this season. With said, I'm betting this very good Buffalo Bulls  team comes out here with their helmets on fire as  they look to avenge last years 44-20 drubbing at home vs the Flashes. It must be noted that the host team is 0-7 ATS L/7 in this series.

KENT ST is 0-9 ATS  after gaining 150 or less total yards in their previous game and  is 0-10 ATS  after gaining 2.75 or less yards/play in their previous game.

CFB Home underdogs like Kent St - after 2 straight losses by 17 or more points against opponent after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 18-46 ATS over the last 10 seasons for a 72% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Buffalo Bulls to cover 1 unit reg selection

Florida State (0-2) looked rusty after an extended layoff, because of Hurricane Irma,  vs NC State and lost 27-21. But this team is just to talented not to get up off the matt and get things going, even with star QB Deandre Francois out with an injury. I know Wake Forest is a fine team, but the Seminoles thrive vs top tier defenses as Fisher is 10-1 ATS   vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game winning SU by more than 20 points per game on average.  

 FLORIDA ST is 38-22 ATS  after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread.  
 

CFB Road teams like Florida State with a 0-2 record, playing as road favorites are 5-0 ATS vs a undefeated side like Wake Forest (4-0) dating back 20 seasons. 

Florida State to cover 1 unit reg selection

Vanderbilt got blasted by No.1 Alabama last week, by an embarrassing 59-0 count. Now looking to get some pride and respectability back I'm betting the Commodores come out here and give a Gators program off back to back last minute wins vs Tennessee and Kentucky , a run for their money.  The Gators after those aforementioned victories will now find themselves in a letdown spot, and showcase what has become a lethargic  inconsistent attack that lives and dies via a internal horse shoe wedged deep inside of them. Both these teams can play a strong grinding defensive style of football, and that's what I'm betting happens today in what will be closer game than the line indicates. Thus getting points here will be golden in my humble opinion.

VANDERBILT is 6-0 ATS  L/6 after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread dating back to last season! Vandys HC Mason is 9-2 ATS L/11 when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%).

CFB Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points Florida - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are 13-39 ATS for a go against conversion rate of 75% for bettors.

Play on Vanderbilt to cover 1 unit reg selection

Hawaii played a very good game last time out despite of losing to Wyoming. They outplayed their opponent and still did not find the win column. Now jetlagged and downtrodden, an emotional let down scenario, is at hand when they play the Colorado State Rams. After staying competitive vs a extremely tough Alabama program last time out, and scoring 23 points in a cover, this will seem like a walk in the park for the Rams.

COLORADO ST is 6-0 ATS  L/6 versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 yards/play or more.COLORADO ST is 18-6 ATS  versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 6.25 yards/play or more. COLORADO ST is 23-8 ATS L/31   vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game.HAWAII is 4-13 ATS  L/17 against conference opponents.HAWAII is 0-6 ATS   after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games.HAWAII is 1-8 ATS L/9 off a road loss.

CFB Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Colorado State  - after going under the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games are 31-8 ATS  for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Colorado State to cover  1 unit reg selection

USC( 4-0) No.5  enter this game ranked very highly ,  thanks in part to an early season DD win vs a tough Stanford group. Other than that victory, they have barely gotten past three of their opponents. Now here against No.16 Washington State (4-0) their undefeated season is in jeopardy vs a HC Mike Leach team that is 9-1 ATS as a dog vs a undefeated side like USC. It must also be noted that Washington States D, is 100 ypg better than the Trojans at this point in the season, and will be the difference maker here tonight in a tilt featuring two explosive offenses.

WASHINGTON ST is 6-0 ATS L/6 vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game .WASHINGTON ST is 9-1 ATS  L/10 versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more  yards/play.WASHINGTON ST is 8-1 ATS L/9  in home games vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return .USC is 0-8 ATS L/8  in road games off 2 no-covers where the team won as a favorite.WASHINGTON ST is 13-3 ATS  L/16 when the total is greater than or equal to 63.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Washington State- quick starting offensive team - scoring 16+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 49-17 ATS over the L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Washington State to cover 1 unit reg selection

After facing LSU , Utah, and Wisconsin, going against Utah State for BYU will be like a walk in the park even though they are expected to be without starting QB Tanner Magnum. Those games toughened up this Mormon football program and have them ready to compete here this week. Utah State is coming off a lopsided win vs downtrodden San Jose State last time out, but it must be noted that Utah State has logged a lot air miles so far this season, and may finally have a down game. The Aggies travelled out to Wisconsin to begin their season, than all the way home to Utah to play Idaho St in week 2, and than back east to play Wake Forest and than back to San Jose State on the West Coast. Tired is the best way to describe the Aggies. Also Utah State is just  are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win and have covered just 3 of their L/10 vs a non conference opponent. Aggies are also 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

Cougars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. MWC and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

UTAH ST is 1-8 ATS L/9 as an underdog losing SU by an average of 23.7 ppg.

Play on BYU to cover 1 unit reg selection

Duke coach David Cutcliffe doesn't like that his Blue Devils are playing a Friday night home game against No. 14 Miami and has it made known publicly . I don't like the fact that Friday night football exists because it should be for high schools," Cutcliffe said to the Raleigh News & Observer. So he's not in a good mood and should have his team take it out on his opposition the Miami Fl Canes.Last year, Miami topped Duke 40-21 in Miami Garden, Fla.,last season, and now the smell of revenge is in the air. With Miami just 3-7ATS as road fav vs an undefeated team and 0-5 as chalk of 7 points or less Ill recommend we pull the trigger on the Blue Devils.

MIAMI is 4-14 ATS L/18 after gaining 475 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games.

 CFB Road favorites like Miami Fl- excellent rushing team (230 RY/G or more) against a team with an excellent rushing defense (100 or less RY/game or less ), after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game are 8-31 ATS L/25 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

 Play on the Duke Blue Devils to cover 1 unit reg selection

So Texas is a favorite here based on reputation and past pedigree, but definitely not because their current form. This is a team that even their greatest high profile fan Matthew McConaughey could  not feel good about. Tom Herman has a great reputation , but he is still dealing with a  young gridiron group  dealing with a Charlie Strong hangover, and they will  take  a while to jell. So here on the road against a feisty Iowa State side, I'm betting the visiting Longhorns who are 1-4 ATS L/5 as conference road chalk will find it tough to get out of here with a cover. It must be noted that Iowa State is 8-0-1 ATS L/9 as underdogs of 16 points or less vs a below .500 team with Matt Campbells teams covering 6 of their L/8 as a home dog.

TEXAS is 2-12 ATS  L/14  in road games against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game on the season and is 6-16 ATS    in road games against teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game.IOWA ST is 9-2 ATS   after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers.Campbell is 13-4 ATS L/17  in home games in the first half of the season .

Play on the Iowa State Cyclones to cover 1 unit reg selection

Arizona is being underestimated here in my humble opinion and listed as underdogs vs a very public Dallas side. However,  I am not totally surprised after last seasons disappointing results for the Cards, and the  top tier season that the Cowboys had. But now their seems to be decent in the Boyz locker room and side lines  with  coach  Garrett calling out RBs Elliott's hustle and or competitiveness when the RB  showed little interest in turning into a defensive player following two Dak Prescott interceptions in the Cowboys embarrassing loss at Denver last week. That kind of work ethic, tells me a story of a Dallas team that might be resting on their recent laurels and believing in their own headlines, which won't equate well in on the field performances as was the case last week . Elliott had more carries (nine) than rushing yards (eight) in that tilt and Prescott did not look like a star QB.

Despite of missing the play offs last year Bruce Arians team outstated their opponents overall, and once again look like viable post season contenders this year. It must be noted that Dallas is just 0-4 SU/ATS L/4 in this series, 0-3 SU/ATS L/3 games here in the desert losing all three as chalk. Meanwhile, Arizona is 14-1 ATS L/15 and 7-0 ATS L/7 vs NFC East opposition , and have covered 11 straight vs these teams off a victory.Arians is 6-0 ATS  L/6 as a home underdog of 3 points or less  and is 9-1 ATS  as a home underdog of 7 points or less .

Play on the Arizona Cards to cover 1 unit reg selection

Everyone loves the Raiders and their explosive attack, and they are a fine team behind an exceptional QB in Carr and a strong offensive line, but their Achilles heel remains their defense. Also with the success and attention they have garnered they now have a big target on their backs with teams very hyped up to bring them back down to earth. Tonight I'm betting that Oakland after logging a lot of miles during the L/3 weeks , first travelling out to Tennessee in a highly charged game, than flying back home to the West Coat last week for their opener, and now back east to play in DC , could easily find themselves in a letdown spot and tired against a motivated Redskins side that would love nothing more to pull off an upset. It must also be noted that the Raiders are 0-7 ATS away in Sunday games after back to back SU/ATS wins.

The Raiders are 0-13 ATS L/14 on grass after a game in which they rushed for at least 50 yards more than their season-to-date average, and are 1-12 SU losing SU by an average of 2 TDs per game, with the lone win coming by 3 points.

Play on the Washington Redskins to cover 1 unit reg selection